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A Nation Divided: Heat and Cold Records Split the U.S.

By: Bob Henson 5:50 PM GMT on February 20, 2015

This winter’s persistent U.S. gap between western warmth and eastern cold grew into a chasm this week. While unseasonable, unsettling mildness continues to bathe much of the West, one of the strongest February cold outbreaks in U.S. weather history--perhaps the worst and most widespread for so late in the winter--has taken hold from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Freezing temperatures pushed into parts of central Florida on Friday morning, with readings diving below the 0°F mark as far south as Tennessee. Cleveland, Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia all reported their coldest air since the 1990s. At least 500 daily record lows have been set or tied since Sunday, including several record lows for so late in the winter (including 9°F in Norfolk, VA, and –18°F in Lexington, KY, both on Friday) and a number of monthly lows. Crowning the list are the all-time record lows set or tied this week in four states:

Monday
Erie, PA: –18°F (tie], old record –18°F on Jan. 19, 1994; records began in 1873
Tuesday
Jamestown, NY (COOP station 4 miles ENE of town]: –31°F, old record –30°F on Feb. 17, 2015, and Feb. 12, 1979; records began in 1960
Friday
Lynchburg, VA: –11°F, old record –10°F on Jan. 21, 1985, and Feb. 5, 1996; records began in 1893
Flint, MI: –25°F [tie], old record –25°F on Jan. 18. 1976; records began in 1921

Gaylord, MI set an all-time lowest daily high at –5°F on Thursday, breaking the record of –4°F from January 27, 1986. Two unofficial lows of –39°F came in on Friday morning from automated reporting stations at Roscommon and Spincich Lake, Michigan.

Many cities in the Great Lakes and Northeast, and perhaps some entire states, are on target for the coldest February on record. Below is an update on three spots we examined in Monday’s blog post. With deep snow cover firmly in place, and the cold expected to persist through most if not all of next week, Bangor and Caribou should easily cruise to record-low monthly readings, while a brief warmup in Boston will likely kill its chances at a record-cold month.





Figure 1. A deep snowpack remained over New York and New England at 0600 GMT Friday, February 20, with lesser amounts prevailing from Missouri northeastward. Image credit: NWS/National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.


A dangerous ice threat for the weekend
From the mid-South northward and eastward, extensive snow cover (Figure 1) is aiding and abetting the atmosphere’s plunge toward daily and monthly record lows. A new storm this weekend will bring a significant icing threat across a large area, with rich moisture surging atop very cold surface air that may be tougher than usual to flush out. Winter storm warnings are again in effect for parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia, with up to a half-inch of freezing rain possible in some areas Friday afternoon and evening before surface temperatures rise well above 32°F on Saturday. Precipitation will kick off as snow in many areas, including the East Coast from Washington to Boston, before transitioning to a wintry mix and eventually to rain, ahead of yet another Arctic blast early next week.

As the East shivers, the West simmers
While the eastern U.S. grapples with record cold, several Western cities are gunning for their warmest February on record, including those below. The last time Salt Lake City recorded a low temperature below the average for the date was on January 22.





Figure 2. Temperatures on Friday, February 20, are more than 30°F below average across much of the eastern United States, while above-average readings extend from western Mexico north to the Arctic coastline. Image credit: ClimateReanalyzer.org/University of Maine.


When have we seen this before?
The meridional jet-stream flow arcing north into Western Canada and dipping back south into the United States is striking in its persistence and strength, and there is a growing body of research into the effects of climate change and Arctic warming on jet-stream behavior. At the same time, there are some precedents for our current pattern, according to Weather Channel lead meteorologist Michael Palmer: “The highly amplified upper pattern with cross-polar flow that's been in place across North America this February is uncommon, but certainly not unprecedented. Some of the analogs that show up are February 1934, 1958, and 1963. In fact, much of that record cold from 1934 in the Northeast is being threatened with this current cold spell.” Showing how quickly things can change, the Dust Bowl year of 1934 went on to become the hottest year in U.S. weather history--a title it held until 1998.


Two severe tropical cyclones make landfall in Australia on the same day
Forecasters had their hands full at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology early on Friday (Thursday US time), as Tropical Cyclones Lam and Marcia made landfall just six hours apart. Both systems intensified rapidly as they approached land.


Figure 3. The VIIRS scanning radiometer aboard a NASA satellite took this image of Marcia as it approached the coast at 1458 GMT Thursday, February 19. Image credit: NOAA/NASA RAMMB/CIRA.

Cyclone Lam made landfall about 500 km east of Darwin on Australia’s sparsely populated north-central coast around 1430 GMT Thursday (2:00 AM Friday local time). Several homes were reported destroyed in the town of Galiwinku, with water and power outages that could last up to a week. Marcia (Figure 4) struck a somewhat more populated area on the northeast coast near the small city of Yeppoon and Rockhampton at 2200 GMT Thursday (8:00 AM Friday local time), with power lines and trees down and some structural damage but no large-scale injuries reported. Satellite-estimated sustained winds at landfall were 105 mph for Lam and 125 mph for Marcia, with a gust to 129 mph reported at Middle Percy Island. Marcia is the strongest cyclone on record to strike the east coast of Australia so far south (around latitude 22°S). Cyclones heading for the Queensland coast, as Marcia did, often recurve at lower latitudes than hurricanes approaching the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 4. A visible satellite image shows the decaying Cyclone Lam (top center) and the intensifying Cyclone Marcia (right center) at 0033 GMT Thursday, February 19. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

According to climatologist Blair Trewin (Australian Bureau of Meteorology), this marks the first time since routine satellite coverage began in the 1970s that two severe tropical cyclones (sustained winds of at least 74 mph) made landfall in Australia within 24 hours of each other. In terms of geography and timing, it’s as if one hurricane hit Louisiana and another struck North Carolina later the same day. We can’t rule out same-day landfalls having happened in Australia prior to the 1970s, since the strength of many cyclones along the poorly sampled coast was likely underestimated in the pre-satellite era. Sea-surface temperatures were about 1-2°C above average in the regions where both Lam and Marcia developed. More details on the twin Aussie storms--referred to as a “cyclone sandwich” by locals, according to the Associated Press--can be found at the ABC live blogs on Lam and Marcia.



This week’s WunderPoster: Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability
The latest installment in our WunderPoster series (Figure 5, right) spotlights the graceful, symmetric clouds formed by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. These shallow mid-level clouds can develop when a disturbance moves into two closely spaced layers of air that have strongly different densities and wind speeds, much like the interface between air and water that helps generate ocean waves. All WunderPosters can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. Kelvin-Helmholtz instability produced these majestic clouds over Seattle, Washington. Image credit: wunderphotographer ChatNoirPhotographie.

Addendum: A Personal Cold Record for Dr. Jeff Masters
I’ve seen my share of cold temperatures, living in Michigan most of my life. But this morning, I set a personal record for coldest lifetime temperature when the mercury plunged to -29°F (-34°C) at my back yard Personal Weather Station in Highland, Michigan, 30 miles north of Ann Arbor. By six degrees, this is the coldest air this hardy northerner has experienced in his 54 years on the planet. I walked out to get the newspaper just after dawn, when it was -25°, to get the experience of the coldest air of my life. The air had a still clarity that the snow-reflected sun echoed brilliantly through. The cold made my nostrils feel all crinkly and tingly, and bit into my face with aching intensity. I tossed some water in the air to see if it would freeze before hitting the ground, but it wasn't cold enough for that. Now that I can say I’ve had the experience of -25° air, my California-based co-worker, Andria Stark, says that I should switch to the digital version of the newspaper in winter. But what fun is that? I like to always be aware of and connected to the atmosphere that surrounds us--though briefly in the case of -25° temperatures!

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. beell
Quoting 982. LAbonbon:


Thought you might like that. Probably one of the more significant posts of the day.


Certainly notable. I'm sure more than a few of us have been watching for signs of the inevitable!

Featured WU Blogger Steve Gregory made mention of the change in his current blog from the 19th.

:)
Mountain snowpack is reportedly record low on southern Vancouver Island (scroll past the video at the link):

Link
Quoting 980. PedleyCA:



That is something to look forward to having happen.



I hope so. I need spring. :O)
Thanks Brian.!
Interesting to combine a wave and wind harnessing ability on one vessel.
New ideas give energy boost to wave power Link

Meanwhile in Anne Arundel we have been having record low temperatures...
Hey Bonnie, are you getting any precip?
86F in sunny FL today!! Went to church......spent the rest of the day riding my horse :)
Quoting 1006. TimTheWxMan:

Hey Bonnie, are you getting any precip?

No, not yet. And I'm a little leery of the freezing rain advisories that are creeping closer...
Quoting 1007. kitnkaboodle:

86F in sunny FL today!! Went to church......spent the rest of the day riding my horse :)

What a wonderful way to spend your day :)
Early night for me...I'm headed for the Land of Nod. Good night, all.
@ sar .... I guess you're on the "upstream" side of most "lake effect" precipitation, then.... I bet when the Corps of Engineers and the TVA types were planning and building all those dams they didn't have a thought in mind about how they would be impacting micro-climates around the nation ....
Try hot water next time, that can freeze even at -19.
Quoting 1002. DCSwithunderscores:

Mountain snowpack is reportedly record low on southern Vancouver Island (scroll past the video at the link):

Link










Mt. Washington ski area on Vancouver Is. has been closed for almost 2 weeks already because of not enough snow. This mtn usually recieves about 40ft of snow in a season. The salmon are going to have a hard time during the spawn in the fall as well as there being an active fire season this summer...
Quoting 989. washingtonian115:

Euro has trended slightly west with the storm Thursday.I hope that this isn't a 96 repeat shaping up where we had a nice snow pack and then a warm up with rain that caused significant flooding a week after that.


We don't have enough water in the snowpack to make it a significant term in the flooding..

This time.

New England on the other hand is really exposed to risk with a warm rain event.
Two hour delay announced for PG CO MD schools. AGAIN!! Previous melt is icing and not evaporating and it indeed was very slippery walking the dogs; not everywhere but in many spots.. clear ice, the worst kind!

Expecting arctic air very late tonight but no sign of it yet.


Much better rain rate now. Much better, this is what we need...
On a horticultural note, I checked the overwintering broccoli (barely alive after the arctic outbreaks in College Park MD and it may not survive), for whiteflies.

There were surviving whiteflies! I've reported this to UMD They aren't supposed to be able to survive MD winters.
1021. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:
Early night for me...I'm headed for the Land of Nod. Good night, all.
GN, Bonnie. Still getting a bit of drizzle here. Woohoo!
Guess I'll head off to bed as well.... g'nite... I hope the icy situation doesn't make things too nasty in the DC / VA / MA area in the a.m. ....
I cannot believe how consistently harsh this winter has been. I thought last year was harsh with the occasional single digit low but this one has absolutely blown that out of the water. Even last year had a few torches and low topped squall lines move through. This year? One day around 40 and then right back at it.
Quoting 1023. wxgeek723:

I cannot believe how consistently harsh this winter has been. I thought last year was harsh with the occasional single digit low but this one has absolutely blown that out of the water. Even this year had a few torches and low topped squall lines move through. This year? One day around 40 and then right back at it.


It was fairly mild in for a bit in January, but February has been in the freezer...doesn't even feel like March is a week away.
1025. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ sar .... I guess you're on the "upstream" side of most "lake effect" precipitation, then.... I bet when the Corps of Engineers and the TVA types were planning and building all those dams they didn't have a thought in mind about how they would be impacting micro-climates around the nation ....
There's definitely a micro-climate due to the lake, Baha. At 182 sq. km., it's huge, one of the biggest lakes in the Southeast. It was planned in the mid-50's and construction of the Ft. Gaines Dam, which impounds the lake, was completed in 1963. At that time, the only thing the Corp cared about was a lock for navigation and a reliable supply of water for the hydro plant. Lock fees and power sold were supposed to pay for the costs associated with the dam and reservoir. Fast forward to 2015. Barge navigation used to be primarily coal,and it was big business. Now, coal = bad, so almost all the downstream power plants converted to natural gas, so no more barges. The locks are only used by recreational boaters, and you can't change them the big bucks like you would a string of coal barges. The power plant now barely pays to maintain the locks and the lake let alone produce any excess revenue.

So now I'm living next to this big lake. Depending on the direction storms come from, it helps or hurts me. If summer thunderstorms come directly from the south, they have to travel a good distance over the lake, which almost always greatly weakens or dissipates them before they get to me. In a SW flow like we have today, the lake helps to form and intensify rain clouds. Even with all my whining, about the only place in south AL that got rain was me. You can see on radar how the showers form just to the west of the lake, grow over the lake, and then continue to Georgia. Unfortunately, the lake acts as a better feeder for rain to the east than over me, but what I'm getting today (0.59") is better than nothing.

The one surprising thing was the lake is big enough to give me lake effect snow if the conditions are otherwise right for snow. In our snow last January, the average in the area was 1.5 to 2" while areas immediately west of the lake like me got 3 to 4". This was due to the southeasterly winds having a long fetch on the lake and dumping more snow near it. The effect was really clear on the satellite view the next morning. We also get much more fog than surrounding areas, again due to the lake.

There you go, probably way more than you ever wanted to know about Lake Eufaula. It would never be built today, but it's a nice lake. Lots of bass, great water skiing, and about 60 islands that have a vague look of the Caribbean in the summer. There are worse places to live. :-)
1026. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


It was fairly mild in for a bit in January, but February has been in the freezer...doesn't even feel like March is a week away.
The roller coaster is what's getting me. 19 degrees Friday morning and 78 degrees this afternoon. I know they say weather doesn't make you sick but almost everyone I know is sick. I have the worst sinusitis I've had in my life, to the point I can't breath in the morning. I can learn to tolerate any weather if it's consistent. The summer, fall, winter thing in a single weekend is killing me.
1027. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Guess I'll head off to bed as well.... g'nite... I hope the icy situation doesn't make things too nasty in the DC / VA / MA area in the a.m. ....
Just missed you. Have a good night.
1028. sar2401
Quoting PedleyCA:

Much better rain rate now. Much better, this is what we need...
I hope you get the rain you guys need so much. Things are starting to look more hopeful in the weeks ahead for more rain too. We can only pray.
Quoting 1026. sar2401:

The roller coaster is what's getting me. 19 degrees Friday morning and 78 degrees this afternoon. I know they say weather doesn't make you sick but almost everyone I know is sick. I have the worst sinusitis I've had in my life, to the point I can't breath in the morning. I can learn to tolerate any weather if it's consistent. The summer, fall, winter thing in a single weekend is killing me.


I had a severe cold that confined me to my bed for one day, got better, was healthy for TWO days, and now I'm sick with another cold. There is also a flu virus in the dorm, so I'm hoping to avoid that...

It was 40 degrees today, T-shirt weather.
1030. jpsb
Quoting 1023. wxgeek723:

I cannot believe how consistently harsh this winter has been. I thought last year was harsh with the occasional single digit low but this one has absolutely blown that out of the water. Even last year had a few torches and low topped squall lines move through. This year? One day around 40 and then right back at it.



No Sun spots again today


http://www.landscheidt.info/
Quoting 1026. sar2401:

The roller coaster is what's getting me. 19 degrees Friday morning and 78 degrees this afternoon. I know they say weather doesn't make you sick but almost everyone I know is sick. I have the worst sinusitis I've had in my life, to the point I can't breath in the morning. I can learn to tolerate any weather if it's consistent. The summer, fall, winter thing in a single weekend is killing me.



That was why I'd always get sick while I was in Florida in the winter. I've only been to florida in february and march so it was still cold in St. Louis while it was pretty warm there. Huge temperature swings in a short period of time are the reason why my allergies flare up every fall and spring. You would think I'd be used to it being a lifelong midwesterner but nope.
Quoting 1030. jpsb:




No Sun spots again today


What do sun spots have to do with severe cold?
1033. Patrap
No Sunspots ?

LoL

Seems someone is a shill for something, and it ain't science.

solarham.net







Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2015 February 23 0030 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels this period. Region 2288 (S08,
L=167) produced the only reportable event during the period, a B9 flare
at 22/2021 UTC from around the west limb. An eruption off the west limb
occurred just before this flare occurred, becoming visible in LASCO C2
imagery at 22/2024 UTC. It also appears to be backsided and is not
expected to be geoeffective. Region 2290 (N20E18, Dro/beta) exhibited
minor growth in its leader and trailer spot areas. All other regions on
the visible disk were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
(Below R1-Minor) flare activity over the next three days (23-25 Feb).

Today it's Sunspots, tomorrow he will bring us Volcanoes, or some other gish gallop from the brietbart or heartland overlords.


Its a sad tirade of nonsuch and nonsense.

ALWAYS.




1034. Patrap
Quoting 1030. jpsb:




No Sun spots again today


http://www.landscheidt.info/


This your er, Science link to that gish gallup my friend?

Least have the courtesy to show yer "actual" source, breaux.

This is weather underground, not some low brow crazed Pseudo Science site .

,,,,and I quote from yer, "source"

www.landscheidt.info



QUESTION

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp




1035. Patrap
Anything else tonight as we close yer "link" for good?



: )
1037. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


I had a severe cold that confined me to my bed for one day, got better, was healthy for TWO days, and now I'm sick with another cold. There is also a flu virus in the dorm, so I'm hoping to avoid that...

It was 40 degrees today, T-shirt weather.
Yeah, it's been pretty terrible. I think I've been sick more often than well this winter. I'm generally pretty healthy for an old geezer and this is the first winter I've ever had so many kinds of colds and flu the flu shot didn't intercept. This had better be a nice spring or the groundhog gets it. :-)
1038. sar2401
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



That was why I'd always get sick while I was in Florida in the winter. I've only been to florida in february and march so it was still cold in St. Louis while it was pretty warm there. Huge temperature swings in a short period of time are the reason why my allergies flare up every fall and spring. You would think I'd be used to it being a lifelong midwesterner but nope.
You should have seen the first year I moved to Alabama from northern California. I developed an allergy to almost everything but the food. My eyes were watering, my head felt like it was going to explode...but i still got fat. Most of the allergies were under control in a year. It took me a little longer to get rid of the fat. Everyone here dies of strokes and heart attacks...but they die looking really happy. :-)
1039. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


What do sun spots have to do with severe cold?
Well, see, the sun is really hot, and those sun spots are even hotter. When we don't have sunspots, then it gets cold the next day. When we do have sunspots, then it gets really hot the next day because sunspots are the only thing that causes heat. No sunspots, no heat, so we have them all summer long and then we don't have any all winter.

Geez, I thought you are, like, a college student or something. :-)
1040. vis0

Quoting 945. sar2401:

BWAHAHAhahahaa....That's the best laugh I've had in a week. Where in the Wide Wide World of Sports is any proposed storm coming from that's going to give me 2.55" of rain? I've had 1.78" for the month so far in this "wet" pattern. We were supposed to have a "soaker" today according to the Boys. I'm now up to 0.29" as another five minute drizzle bomb went over me. I'm afraid even ScottLincoln and his minions aren't going to be able to save this forecast. :-)
Lets wait and see though SAr2401's laff makes me think he thinks this might have happened
1041. maxcrc
Lots of incorrect info regarding the "absolute records" :

1-Jamestown have changed location 3 times with 3 different numbers
-31F was already set on 5 January 1904.
-30F was also set on 12-2-1979 in a nearby station 4 miles away .
There has been a third station operating too.
The town station opened in 1893 not in 1960. Therefore there is no record beaten,just tied indeed.
NCDC is perhaps scrambling its data of another station which was opened later and it has been closed since 1974.

2-Erie PA information is incorrect.
That data is not from Eyre Town station (two stations indeed) but from the International Airport and data at that station starts in 1926 not 1873 .
The airport has a sharply cooler microclimate than the town in the minima.So the POR should be changed, because the different microclimate.

3-Lynchburg is also the same case for the same reason.
That data is from the airport , not from Lynchburg City Station.Therefore the POR is from 1944 not from 1893.
In this case there is a legit all time record low beaten for the airport station with data from 1944. Lynchburg AP was opened just after the previous station was closed, so it is not completely incorrect to put the POR from 1893, but keep in mind there are two slightly different microclimates, not so different like in the case of Erie, but indeed there is a difference.

4- Flint tied record was of its airport station, so the POR is from 1948 not 1921.
The other station,7 miles from the town, has many gaps anyway.
Also the real record of Flint MI is -28F on 17-2-1916. So there is no record at Flint beaten or tied, just tied at the airport with POR from 1948.
It's raining in Sooo Cal........ .57 last 7 hours! Nice rain!
watch out if you live in the northeast very cold night tonight maybe down to -10F
1046. LargoFl
Thursday for the Carolina's looks like.............................................. .....
Good morning. It was 82 yesterday and it appears that next week could feature 80's everyday and maybe even some temps getting up into the upper 80's across S FL next week. Looks as if the heat is going to get turned up across C & S FL going forward.

Sub surface warm pool getting larger and is expected to surface across Nino 1 &2 in June.



Forecast for June.

1050. 1Zach1
Temps are really starting to fall off here in NoVA.
Still expecting arctic air in DC 2day but it's had a real tough time getting over the mountains. Winds are NW now but not real strong and there is actually less ice than last night because of IR radiation from the clouds compared with the clear skies last night. But low 30s this AM will probably not hold and we are still expecting upper 20s only this afternoon and single digits to low teens tonight.

A local garden writer said if the soil was not too moist we could plant peas now. Yeah right.. not this year!

He is right though, some years you can.
Quoting 1048. tampabaymatt:




All models except the GFS of coarse show not only a rain some heavy Wednesday Night and early Thursday for us but maybe a bigger event Friday Night and Saturday based on all the models except the GFS. If this is the way the GFS is going to act and its not even hurricane season then God help us as this model is still in the dumps. The upgrade did great on resolution but its overall forecasting capabilities seem to be very poor still.

Quoting 1052. StormTrackerScott:



All models except the GFS of coarse show not only a rain some heavy Wednesday Night and early Thursday for us but maybe a bigger event Friday Night and Saturday based on all the models except the GFS. If this is the way the GFS is going to act and its not even hurricane season then God help us as this model is still in the dumps. The upgrade did great on resolution but its overall forecasting capabilities seem to be very poor still.




Wednesday night into Thursday looks like our best chance of rain this week. We might see some thunderstorms on Thursday.
Quoting 978. BahaHurican:

There are SO many things wrong with this.... however, to bat my corner, NO to global warming, since the best place on this Earth to live - to wit, the Commonwealth of The Bahamas - would pretty much disappear underwater due to the melting ice induced sea rise.... [our nickname isn't the Ephemeral Islands for nothing ...]
Not really, the Bahamas have been there before and so has the place I live in just a 100 miles or so to your SW. All part of a natural cycle, lets wait for a cold PDO, AMO and low sunspot cycle. Besides if we get an Ice Age, Climate Changed is solved. You people better hope we pump enough CO2 into the atmosphere to slow down the next Ice AGE.
Quoting 1053. tampabaymatt:



Wednesday night into Thursday looks like our best chance of rain this week. We might see some thunderstorms on Thursday.


Well you should see the Euro, CMC, and NAVGEM. All these models show heavy rains streaming across FL Friday Night into Saturday with PWAT's possibly exceeding 1.7" which is very high for this time of year.

CMC


NAVGEM


0Z Euro for Saturday.


Wow, huge disagreement between the NAM & GFS for tomorrow here in the Charleston area - it would certainly be a mess if the NAM were to verify, though I'm not betting on it given our weather patterns this winter!


Quoting 1041. maxcrc:

Lots of incorrect info regarding the "absolute records" :

1-Jamestown have changed location 3 times with 3 different numbers
-31F was already set on 5 January 1904.
-30F was also set on 12-2-1979 in a nearby station 4 miles away .
There has been a third station operating too.
The town station opened in 1893 not in 1960. Therefore there is no record beaten,just tied indeed.
NCDC is perhaps scrambling its data of another station which was opened later and it has been closed since 1974.

2-Erie PA information is incorrect.
That data is not from Eyre Town station (two stations indeed) but from the International Airport and data at that station starts in 1926 not 1873 .
The airport has a sharply cooler microclimate than the town in the minima.So the POR should be changed, because the different microclimate.

3-Lynchburg is also the same case for the same reason.
That data is from the airport , not from Lynchburg City Station.Therefore the POR is from 1944 not from 1893.
In this case there is a legit all time record low beaten for the airport station with data from 1944. Lynchburg AP was opened just after the previous station was closed, so it is not completely incorrect to put the POR from 1893, but keep in mind there are two slightly different microclimates, not so different like in the case of Erie, but indeed there is a difference.

4- Flint tied record was of its airport station, so the POR is from 1948 not 1921.
The other station,7 miles from the town, has many gaps anyway.
Also the real record of Flint MI is -28F on 17-2-1916. So there is no record at Flint beaten or tied, just tied at the airport with POR from 1948.
So what, it's still ridiculously cold.
NASA's GEOS-5 is showing possible severe weather from NFL to Charleston on Thursday..



Decent rain for Central FL, but it mostly falls apart leaving SFL with light rain at best, again.



Quoting 1058. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 is showing possible severe weather from NFL to Charleston on Thursday..



Decent rain for Central FL, but it mostly falls apart leaving SFL with light rain at best, again.







Good morning Skye atleast its something though and it could be drawn out over a couple of days. Heavy rains then shift across C FL Friday Night & Saturday as warm front lifts back north.
Quoting NativeSun:
So what, it's still ridiculously cold.
"So what"? Max is an extremely credible person widely-regarded for his profound knowledge of weather and climate records. He's earned that respect by demanding precision and accuracy; it's important to him that things are recorded correctly.

*That's* what. And now you know...
Quoting 1054. NativeSun:

Not really, the Bahamas have been there before and so has the place I live in just a 100 miles or so to your SW. All part of a natural cycle, lets wait for a cold PDO, AMO and low sunspot cycle. Besides if we get an Ice Age, Climate Changed is solved. You people better hope we pump enough CO2 into the atmosphere to slow down the next Ice AGE.


Do you just ignore science, make things up, or both? It's getting really tiresome.
1062. MahFL
Quoting 1057. NativeSun:

So what, it's still ridiculously cold.


Part of the problem is a lot of winters recently have been milder, so when you get a cold winter people think it's abnormal. It has been colder in most places in the recorded past than the current cold.
Scott~ Does look like we may have a nice rain event. I'm just not making any promises for SFL (particularly SWFL). GEOS-5 has been pretty good picking up that trend this winter & shows it again with this system..

Quoting 1059. StormTrackerScott:



Good morning Skye atleast its something though and it could be drawn out over a couple of days. Heavy rains then shift across C FL Friday Night & Saturday as warm front lifts back north.


Over the weekend, Hillsborough County closed at least 2 major parks that are tied to some large lakes, due to high water levels. I actually drove by one of them on Sunday and the lake was about as high as I've ever seen a lake so close to residential areas. Just goes to show how serious the water situation is here as we head closer to the rainy season. I'm not sure we have anywhere else for the water to go here.
GEOS-5 has been hinting at rain for CA starting with the weekend. Maybe even some snow..



It's also been showing this storm for next week that keeps getting heavier & snowier each run..

Good Morning Everyone, so most of you can say "well, we are not as bad as that" lol
Coldest in the nation (contiguous) 6 miles east of Champion, in Michigans central UP -36f
The closest city to me Grayling, northern lower Mich the coldest it made to last nite was -35f
My PWS east of Grayling and generally 3~6 colder than town even in the summer -38.4f
Quoting 1064. tampabaymatt:



Over the weekend, Hillsborough County closed at least 2 major parks that are tied to some large lakes, due to high water levels. I actually drove by one of them on Sunday and the lake was about as high as I've ever seen a lake so close to residential areas. Just goes to show how serious the water situation is here as we head closer to the rainy season. I'm not sure we have anywhere else for the water to go here.

A few of the creeks in your area are running over 1000% of their mean average right now.
Quoting 1066. TroutMadness:

Good Morning Everyone, so most of you can say "well, we are not as bad as that" lol
Coldest in the nation (contiguous) 6 miles east of Champion, in Michigans central UP -36f
The closest city to me Grayling, northern lower Mich the coldest it made to last nite was -35f
My PWS east of Grayling and generally 3~6 colder than town even in the summer -38.4f


Soooo...when's your flight?
Quoting 1046. LargoFl:

Thursday for the Carolina's looks like.............................................. .....


I certainly hope this is right! SREF Plume for Charlotte shows a mean of just over 3 inches for the event. Not much talk about it amongst locals or local mets, although 3 inches is more than enough for massive travel disruptions down here. Sounds like a very low-confidence forecast- any thoughts on how the current forecast will verify?
Quoting 1054. NativeSun:

Not really, the Bahamas have been there before and so has the place I live in just a 100 miles or so to your SW. All part of a natural cycle, lets wait for a cold PDO, AMO and low sunspot cycle. Besides if we get an Ice Age, Climate Changed is solved. You people better hope we pump enough CO2 into the atmosphere to slow down the next Ice AGE.
See, I'm all for the ice age, since it would mean more land for the Bahamas, while temperatures would remain palatable. Too bad, so sad for those whose homes would be overrun by a glacier or two ...

My point, though, was that it's so easy to be selfish and only view the situation from one's narrow little perspective. The blogger I answered only sees climate change from its effects on him personally. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is still feeling the heat.
Quoting 1032. Astrometeor:



What do sun spots have to do with severe cold?


Localized severe cold, and of course sunspots have nothing to do with that. People like him seem think that the US is somehow representative of the whole world when it comes to temperatures and weather.
1072. Drakoen
NAM 12z has a major snow storm for the South and portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday as it trends more amplified with the southern stream system.
Quoting 1068. LAbonbon:


Soooo...when's your flight?

LOL driving down to Arizona, wife was a week off on her planning for some reason (but we are retired so it doesn't matter that much) and the youngest has off next week to come up and check on his grandfather and take him shopping. She has it worked out for the boys to come up to make sure he has enough groceries. He, for some reason, will not ask the neighbors to take him into town most of the time.
We might, on the drive back, spend a couple of nights in New Orleans to see it now. Last time we were there was 2~3 weeks before Katrina hit.

Quoting 1069. CarolinaHurricanes87:



I certainly hope this is right! SREF Plume for Charlotte shows a mean of just over 3 inches for the event.

See, and this is why my sister and I often get tempted to leave the Charleston area behind and move up to Charlotte - at least then we'd have a small chance to see some snow during the winter! Sometimes I still miss a good New England winter... though not this particular year ;)
Quoting 1062. MahFL:



Part of the problem is a lot of winters recently have been milder, so when you get a cold winter people think it's abnormal. It has been colder in most places in the recorded past than the current cold.

Last 2 winters remind me of the 70's in Michigan
Quoting 1061. Naga5000:



Do you just ignore science, make things up, or both? It's getting really tiresome.
Guess he didn't notice he was supporting my point rather than refuting it ...
Quoting 1062. MahFL:



Part of the problem is a lot of winters recently have been milder, so when you get a cold winter people think it's abnormal. It has been colder in most places in the recorded past than the current cold.
Agreed. The general thought here in Nassau is that it hasn't been this cold in about 20 years. However, this was pretty typical winter wx in the late 70s and early 80s.
Quoting 1049. StormTrackerScott:

Sub surface warm pool getting larger and is expected to surface across Nino 1 &2 in June.



Forecast for June.




Can anyone tell me what sort of Pacific pattern we were in during summer of 2009? T.I.A.
Quoting 1067. Skyepony:


A few of the creeks in your area are running over 1000% of their mean average right now.


All of the creeks and lakes in my part of Hillsborough County are extremely high right now. We have been dumped on during every FL rain event since late September, right when evaporation decreases due to the cooler weather and sun angle. My homeowner’s insurance actually decreased by about $200 for the next year (renews in April), and I’m thinking of using the savings to purchase flood coverage (even though I’m not in a flood zone). Rocky Creek runs right through my neighborhood and I’ve never seen it this high. I’m not taking any chances as we go toward the rainy season that our rivers/creeks/lakes aren’t going to overflow this summer.
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (AP) - A tiny species of crab that rarely visits north of the Mexican border has arrived in droves in Southern California.
The Orange County Register says thousands of pelagic red crabs showed up Saturday on Balboa Island in Newport Beach.
They were last seen in the area during an especially high tide about a month ago.
The 1- to 3-inch crabs normally live in Baja California. Experts say unusually warm ocean temperatures have brought them in.
Since last year, warm waters also have brought other creatures to Southern California, including sperm whales and hammerhead sharks.
Daniel Stringer, who's lived on Balboa Island for 47 years, says he's never seen the little crabs but he knows what to do with them: barbecue them with butter.

its super windy here in no. california
First little bit of trouble starts around daybreak tomorrow. Looks like a mix for interior SC.

All eyes then on Wed night into Thursday. Winter could be going out with a bang for central, interior SC.

Quoting 1072. Drakoen:

NAM 12z has a major snow storm for the South and portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday as it trends more amplified with the southern stream system.
1081. jpsb
Quoting 1033. Patrap:


Today it's Sunspots, tomorrow he will bring us Volcanoes, or some other gish gallop from the brietbart or heartland overlords.


Its a sad tirade of nonsuch and nonsense.

ALWAYS.







Well since you mentioned volcanos, then yes, like the Sun volcano can affect the Earth's climate too. I am surprised you are unaware of this, but I am happy to enlighten you.

from wiki on Mount Pinatubo

The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide. It ejected roughly 10,000,000,000 tonnes (1.1×1010 short tons) or 10 km3 (2.4 cu mi) of magma, and 20,000,000 tonnes (22,000,000 short tons) SO
2, bringing vast quantities of minerals and metals to the surface environment. It injected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991-93, and ozone depletion temporarily increased substantially.


From Wiki on Mount Tambora

The eruption caused global climate anomalies that included the phenomenon known as "volcanic winter": 1816 became known as the "Year Without a Summer" because of the effect on North American and European weather. Crops failed and livestock died in much of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in the worst famine of the 19th century.

from wiki on Laki

In North America, the winter of 1784 was the longest and one of the coldest on record. It was the longest period of below-zero temperatures in New England, with the largest accumulation of snow in New Jersey, and the longest freezing over of the Chesapeake Bay, where Annapolis, Maryland, then the capital of the United States, is located; the weather delayed Congressmen in coming to Annapolis to vote for the Treaty of Paris, which would end the American Revolutionary War. A huge snowstorm hit the south, the Mississippi River froze at New Orleans and there was ice in the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting 1073. TroutMadness:


LOL driving down to Arizona, wife was a week off on her planning for some reason (but we are retired so it doesn't matter that much) and the youngest has off next week to come up and check on his grandfather and take him shopping. She has it worked out for the boys to come up to make sure he has enough groceries. He, for some reason, will not ask the neighbors to take him into town most of the time.
We might, on the drive back, spend a couple of nights in New Orleans to see it now. Last time we were there was 2~3 weeks before Katrina hit.

Sounds like a nice trip. I've been to the SW several times, and enjoyed each and every trip. I bet it will be a welcome change from the ice box you're in now. Don't know exactly where you're going, but this Tucson forecast looks awesome :)

Quoting 1071. Xyrus2000:



Localized severe cold, and of course sunspots have nothing to do with that. People like him seem think that the US is somehow representative of the whole world when it comes to temperatures and weather.
Not even the whole country ... only the NE US at that ...
Quoting 1073. TroutMadness:


LOL driving down to Arizona, wife was a week off on her planning for some reason (but we are retired so it doesn't matter that much) and the youngest has off next week to come up and check on his grandfather and take him shopping. She has it worked out for the boys to come up to make sure he has enough groceries. He, for some reason, will not ask the neighbors to take him into town most of the time.
We might, on the drive back, spend a couple of nights in New Orleans to see it now. Last time we were there was 2~3 weeks before Katrina hit.
Hey ... I was there around the same time! I rode rode Amtrak's Sunset Limited from there back to Florida on one of the last few trips it made before Katrina disrupted that service forever....
Quoting 1074. carolinabelle:



See, and this is why my sister and I often get tempted to leave the Charleston area behind and move up to Charlotte - at least then we'd have a small chance to see some snow during the winter! Sometimes I still miss a good New England winter... though not this particular year ;)



Love Charlotte, but if I were you, I don't think I'd trade the beach for the seemingly very rare snows we get! I spent most of my time during the ice storm last week looking up rental homes in Folly Beach and Isle of Palms for my annual summer beach trip :)
Quoting 1078. tampabaymatt:



All of the creeks and lakes in my part of Hillsborough County are extremely high right now. We have been dumped on during every FL rain event since late September, right when evaporation decreases due to the cooler weather and sun angle. My homeowner’s insurance actually decreased by about $200 for the next year (renews in April), and I’m thinking of using the savings to purchase flood coverage (even though I’m not in a flood zone). Rocky Creek runs right through my neighborhood and I’ve never seen it this high. I’m not taking any chances as we go toward the rainy season that our rivers/creeks/lakes aren’t going to overflow this summer.

Morning, Matt. You may very well be in a flood zone. You can check here. It may be that your flood zone category is one that does not end up with you being required to purchase flood insurance, but there's still a risk. And I'm sure you know this, but there's a 30-day waiting period before it goes into effect.
1086. Patrap
Well since you mentioned volcanos, then yes, like the Sun volcano can affect the Earth's climate too. I am surprised you are unaware of this, but I am happy to enlighten you.



Listen here sport, Im very well aware of all you blather about and yer no psychic too.

LOL


You GOP Jedi Tricks have no affect on my mind.

I challange you openely here to do yer OWN blog, and get yer facts in it together and Ill gladly share it,globally, as thats my reach.
Quoting 1072. Drakoen:

NAM 12z has a major snow storm for the South and portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday as it trends more amplified with the southern stream system.
What about D.C
1088. Patrap
Just WTH is a Sun Volcano Breaux?

LOL

Well since you mentioned volcanos, then yes, like the Sun volcano can affect the Earth's climate too. I am surprised you are unaware of this, but I am happy to enlighten you.




Quoting 1036. BaltimoreBrian:

For Pat's convenience when volcano nonsense is posted tomorrow ;)

Which produces more CO2, volcanic or human activity?


Human Activities Produce More Carbon Dioxide Emissions Than Do Volcanoes



VANCOUVER, Wash. On average, human activities put out in just three to five days, the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide that volcanoes produce globally each year. This is one of the messages detailed in a new article "Volcanic Versus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide" by Terrance Gerlach of the U.S. Geological Survey appearing in this week's issue of Eos, from the American Geophysical Union.

"The most frequent question that I have gotten (and still get), in my 30 some years as a volcanic gas geochemist from the general public and from geoscientists working in fields outside of volcanology, is 'Do volcanoes emit more CO2 than human activities?' Research findings indicate unequivocally that the answer to this question is "No" anthropogenic CO2 emissions dwarf global volcanic CO2 emissions," said Gerlach.

Gerlach looked at five published studies of present-day global volcanic CO2 emissions that give a range of results from a minimum of about one tenth of a billion, to a maximum of about half a billion metric tons of CO2 per year. Gerlach used the figure of about one-quarter of a billion metric tons of volcanic CO2 per year to make his comparisons. The published projected anthropogenic CO2 emission rate for 2010 is about 35 billion metric tons per year.

Gerlach's calculations suggest present-day annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions may exceed the CO2 output of one or more supereruptions per year. Supereruptions are extremely rare with recurrence intervals of 100,000-200,000 years; none have occurred historically, the most recent examples being the Toba eruption 74,000 years ago in Indonesia and the Yellowstone caldera eruption in the United States 2 million years ago.

As in all fields of scientific research, there continues to be efforts to improve estimates and reduce uncertainties about how much CO2 is released from the mid-ocean ridges, from volcanic arcs, or from hot spot volcanoes, but agreement exists among volcanic gas scientists about the significantly smaller amount of volcanic CO2 compared to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Quoting 1085. LAbonbon:


Morning, Matt. You may very well be in a flood zone. You can check here. It may be that your flood zone category is one that does not end up with you being required to purchase flood insurance, but there's still a risk. And I'm sure you know this, but there's a 30-day waiting period before it goes into effect.


Good morning. You are correct. My zone doesn't require me to purchase flood insurance. Not to beat a dead horse, but it's a scary situation in my area with all of the high water levels. If a tropical system affects our area, there will be catastrophic flooding. I was pleasantly surprised to see my homeowner's premium go down by $200, so I'll take that as a sign that I should use the savings to purchase flood insurance. Well, I'll at least have my agent price it out so I can see what's what.
RE: post # 1081 ...

Facepalm...
Quoting 1087. washingtonian115:

What about D.C


Nada. Southern event as it exits off NC
Quoting 1081. jpsb:



SNIP volcanos, SNIP.



Yes, we understand *volcanoes, they can cause some pretty wild short term swings. Next.
Quoting 1082. LAbonbon:


Sounds like a nice trip. I've been to the SW several times, and enjoyed each and every trip. I bet it will be a welcome change from the ice box you're in now. Don't know exactly where you're going, but this Tucson forecast looks awesome :)



Foster daughter is in Phoenix
1095. jpsb
Quoting 1054. NativeSun:

Not really, the Bahamas have been there before and so has the place I live in just a 100 miles or so to your SW. All part of a natural cycle, lets wait for a cold PDO, AMO and low sunspot cycle. Besides if we get an Ice Age, Climate Changed is solved. You people better hope we pump enough CO2 into the atmosphere to slow down the next Ice AGE.


I don't know about you but I detect a pattern in the following images.





Might be nothing to it, but then again maybe North America is in for a few more cold winters.

From 2006

Abdusamatov and his colleagues at the Russian Academy of Sciences astronomical observatory said the prediction is based on measurement of solar emissions, Novosti reported. They expect the cooling to begin within a few years and to reach its peak between 2055 and 2060.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news75818795.html#jCp
1096. ricderr
Good morning. You are correct. My zone doesn't require me to purchase flood insurance. Not to beat a dead horse, but it's a scary situation in my area with all of the high water levels. If a tropical system affects our area, there will be catastrophic flooding. I was pleasantly surprised to see my homeowner's premium go down by $200, so I'll take that as a sign that I should use the savings to purchase flood insurance. Well, I'll at least have my agent price it out so I can see what's what.


just make sure you value your home correctly....one of the most common errors is people will value their home low as the chances of using the coverage is small...the problem is if and when you need to use it...the adjuster does a basic home appraisal survey to make sure you have the right coverage amount...if too low...at best the insurance will only pay the depreciated amount the repairs and/or items are worth today...not the replacement cost....and this can be as much if not more than half of the total claim that will not be paid to you
Quoting 1093. washingtonian115:



Thats nice!!!

Quoting 1084. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Love Charlotte, but if I were you, I don't think I'd trade the beach for the seemingly very rare snows we get! I spent most of my time during the ice storm last week looking up rental homes in Folly Beach and Isle of Palms for my annual summer beach trip :)
We're not big beach-goers, aside from catching some beautiful sunrises, but I get your point :) Honestly, what I'd really be trading it all in for is to be just a bit closer to the mountains!
Quoting 1089. tampabaymatt:



Good morning. You are correct. My zone doesn't require me to purchase flood insurance. Not to beat a dead horse, but it's a scary situation in my area with all of the high water levels. If a tropical system affects our area, there will be catastrophic flooding. I was pleasantly surprised to see my homeowner's premium go down by $200, so I'll take that as a sign that I should use the savings to purchase flood insurance. Well, I'll at least have my agent price it out so I can see what's what.

I'm not required to, either. I did have it, then the rates went up quite a bit, so I didn't renew. I worry about it, though. This factoid is always niggling at my brain:

"Homes and businesses located in moderate-to-low risk areas that have mortgages from federally regulated or insured lenders are typically not required to have flood insurance. Even though flood insurance isn't federally required, anyone can be financially vulnerable to floods. In fact, people outside of mapped high-risk flood areas file nearly 25% of all National Flood Insurance Program flood insurance claims and receive one-third of Federal Disaster Assistance for flooding." Source
1100. LargoFl
Thursday might be an interesting day in the south rain and storm wise..............
Quoting 1087. washingtonian115:

What about D.C


My amateur eyes tell me you're on the very northern fringe according to the 12z NAM. Maybe some flurries but doesn't look like much. However, Charlotte was on the northern fringe a day or two ago, so at least you have the models trending north
Quoting 1095. jpsb:



I don't know about you but I detect a pattern in the following images.


Thank God there are some scientists working on the issue that don't need to rely on eyeballing some graphs, huh? We'd really be in for it. By the way, world mysteries and Steven Goddard are not valid sources of information on climate, your sources are bad.

Funny how that first graph, unsourced mind you, but it does look an awful lot like Greenland Ice Core reconstruction that stops in 1950 and not global often used by denialist websites like the one you pulled that from, shows us currently below the 1961-1990 average. That's weird huh, especially considering it's been a long time since we have seen a year below that baseline...wonder why that is, to quote a blogger here, hmmmm....

The second graph from Steven Goddard a.k.a. Tony Heller, who has had to walk back multiple accusations thrown at climate science for having no basis in reality, besides the obvious issue here is trying to infer one day's temperature image is somehow representative of larger scale trends, which we know from the temperature record it most certainly isn't. Beyond that, what you are seeing is a geography related auto-correlation.

Wah Wah, Try again? Better yet, please don't. If this is your "science", it's nothing more than embarrassing.
1103. Patrap
"To speak intelligently on something, it is ALWAYS best to know something about it"

Like here,

One's ignorance is not equal to the Body of science on that matter.

CO2 delays the next ice age

About 213,000 results (0.33 seconds)
Search Results
BBC News - Carbon emissions 'will defer Ice Age'
www.bbc.com/.../science-environment-...
British Broadcasting Corporation
Jan 9, 2012 - Human emissions of carbon dioxide will defer the next Ice Age, say scientists. The last Ice Age ended about 11,500 years ago, and when the ...
Increased CO2 Emissions Will Delay Next Ice Age | Watts ...
wattsupwiththat.com/.../increased-co2-emissions-w il...
Watts Up With That?
Jan 8, 2012 - Sir Fred Hoyle Vindicated (Via Dr. Benny Peiser of the GWPF) According to new research to be published in Nature Geoscience (embargoed ...
Next ice age delayed by global warming
www.ucl.ac.uk › UCL News
University College London
Jan 10, 2012 - Without human carbon dioxide emissions the next ice age would be imminent, according to a Nature Geoscience study led by a UCL scientist.
Next Ice Age Delayed By Global Warming Gases, Study Finds
www.huffingtonpost.com/.../next-ice-age-global-wa ...
The Huffington Post
Jan 9, 2012 - By Nina Chestney LONDON (Reuters) - High levels of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere mean the next ice age is unlikely to begin ...
1104. LargoFl
each day the LOW in thurs runs moves further north..need to watch Thursday folks........
Ric, was following what you were saying, but you lost me with the last line:

"this can be as much if not more than half of the total claim that will not be paid to you"

?
Posts like #1081 always leave me confused.

Deniers claim that man-made global warming is bogus. They say this because a) the planet's climate has always fluctuated; b) it's cold right now somewhere; and c) natural events like sunspots or volcanoes influence weather. Thus, the argument goes, AGW scientists are wrong and should be ignored.

But doesn't that rely on the very research these dishonest scientists have done? If you don't believe climate science, then how do you know about ice ages? How do you know what the Earth's climate was like 40 million years ago? Sources are either reliable or they're not.

And if natural forces can alter the climate, doesn't that support AGW? After all, it shows that outside factors can influence things. If a volcano eruption 200 years ago managed to wipe out an entire summer, doesn't that support the idea that screwing with the atmosphere might alter things long term? To suggest otherwise is to suggest, say, that it's impossible for an arsonist to burn down your wooden house because ten years ago a lightning strike set your neighbor's house on fire.


From 2006

Abdusamatov and his colleagues at the Russian Academy of Sciences astronomical observatory said the prediction is based on measurement of solar emissions, Novosti reported. They expect the cooling to begin within a few years and to reach its peak between 2055 and 2060.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news75818795.html#jCp


so almost 10 years ago, this guy predicted cooling to begin? well, the exact opposite happened.
1108. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
415 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-073-LAZ004>006-010>014-017>022 -OKZ077-
TXZ149>153-165>167-232000-
/O.CON.KSHV.WW.Y.0004.150223T1200Z-150224T0300Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-UNION AR-CLAIBORNE-
LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-
SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA- SAN AUGUSTINE-
SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...EL DORADO...HOMER...RUSTON...FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD. ..
COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...MONROE...MANY ...
NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...JE NA...IDABEL...
RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTE R...LUFKIN...
SAN AUGUSTINE...HEMPHILL
415 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* EVENT...ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND OR SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLEET ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING ALREADY THIS MORNING.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...TO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

* IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ON ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
ICE WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON POWER LINES AS WELL. SOME
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES COULD ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN...
SLEET AND SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

13
1109. jpsb
Quoting 1092. Naga5000:



Yes, we understand *volcanoes, they can cause some pretty wild short term swings. Next.



Short term?

Undersea Volcanoes Linked To Climate Change By Researchers

1110. Drakoen
Quoting 1104. LargoFl:

each day the LOW in thurs runs moves further north..need to watch Thursday folks........


Couple more shifts and we can get Maryland in it lol
1111. Patrap
What about yer first post j'

No Sunspots, seems you dropped dat kinda FAST

LOL

Once again, you bring not 1 scientific fact,PDF, or other.

You are shuffling like a bad dealer in Vegas.
1112. LargoFl
scientists debate suns Lull could trigger another "lil Ice Age...................Link
1113. LargoFl
Quoting 1110. Drakoen:



Couple more shifts and we can get Maryland in it lol
yeah watch this next few days.good luck
Quoting jpsb:


Well since you mentioned volcanos, then yes, like the Sun volcano can affect the Earth's climate too. I am surprised you are unaware of this, but I am happy to enlighten you.

from wiki on Mount Pinatubo

The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide. It ejected roughly 10,000,000,000 tonnes (1.1×1010 short tons) or 10 km3 (2.4 cu mi) of magma, and 20,000,000 tonnes (22,000,000 short tons) SO
2, bringing vast quantities of minerals and metals to the surface environment. It injected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991-93, and ozone depletion temporarily increased substantially.


From Wiki on Mount Tambora

The eruption caused global climate anomalies that included the phenomenon known as "volcanic winter": 1816 became known as the "Year Without a Summer" because of the effect on North American and European weather. Crops failed and livestock died in much of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in the worst famine of the 19th century.

from wiki on Laki

In North America, the winter of 1784 was the longest and one of the coldest on record. It was the longest period of below-zero temperatures in New England, with the largest accumulation of snow in New Jersey, and the longest freezing over of the Chesapeake Bay, where Annapolis, Maryland, then the capital of the United States, is located; the weather delayed Congressmen in coming to Annapolis to vote for the Treaty of Paris, which would end the American Revolutionary War. A huge snowstorm hit the south, the Mississippi River froze at New Orleans and there was ice in the Gulf of Mexico.
As of 2010 (the most recent calculations I could find), it takes about 65 hours of manmade CO2 emissions to equal a normal year's worth of volcanic CO2. Or to put it another way: there'd need to be a Mt. Pinatubo-sized eruption every 12 hours--or a Mount St. Helens-size eruption every three hours--throughout the year to equal fossil fuel emissions.

It's not volcanoes.
Quoting 1095. jpsb:



I don't know about you but I detect a pattern in the following images.





Might be nothing to it, but then again maybe North America is in for a few more cold winters.


one image is an estimate of ice coverage 20,000 years ago, the other is a map of temperatures. the thing is, the temperatures shown in the right image are not responsible for what happened in the left image because ice caps grow due to cold summers, not winters. I'll leave you to ponder why that is.
Quoting 1106. MaineGuy:

Posts like #1081 always leave me confused.

Deniers claim that man-made global warming is bogus. They say this because a) the planet's climate has always fluctuated; b) it's cold right now somewhere; and c) natural events like sunspots or volcanoes influence weather. Thus, the argument goes, AGW scientists are wrong and should be ignored.

But doesn't that rely on the very research these dishonest scientists have done? If you don't believe climate science, then how do you know about ice ages? How do you know what the Earth's climate was like 40 million years ago? Sources are either reliable or they're not.

And if natural forces can alter the climate, doesn't that support AGW? After all, it shows that outside factors can influence things. If a volcano eruption 200 years ago managed to wipe out an entire summer, doesn't that support the idea that screwing with the atmosphere might alter things long term? To suggest otherwise is to suggest, say, that it's impossible for an arsonist to burn down your wooden house because ten years ago a lightning strike set your neighbor's house on fire.

You get a gold star for critical thinking skills!

1117. Patrap
Quoting 1109. jpsb:




Short term?

Undersea Volcanoes Linked To Climate Change By Researchers




LOL

A website is not Science, and a story is neither,

Heres another from that site, Was Jesus Christ a Ginger?
Quoting LargoFl:
scientists debate suns Lull could trigger another "lil Ice Age...................Link
From that article:

"If we're trying to combat global warming, could a little cooling action from the sun actually help turn down the heat on Earth?

"Maybe, but it wouldn't do much, and not for very long. Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research used a computer model to predict the effect of a future "grand solar minimum" on Earth's climate from 2020 to 2070. The model suggested the minimum might temporarily slow down the warming process by 20-30 percent. But within a few decades afterward, the temperatures would go right back to where they would have been anyway. Sigh.

CORRECTION: A previous version of this article incorrectly phrased that another grand solar minimum would cause global cooling, as opposed to slowing down the warming process."

Summary: no ice age is going to save us from ourselves.
1119. Patrap
Quoting 1112. LargoFl:

scientists debate suns Lull could trigger another "lil Ice Age...................Link


"Gee" "Huh"?
1120. LargoFl
well I think by now we all can agree some kind of change weather/temp wise is coming,something is up and I guess we wait it out and see what happens over the years to come..i Have read the sun is heading into a Lull,and myself im leaning towards a cool down on earth but who knows..i'll probably be gone before anything serious happens either way..but our grandchildren surely might huh.
1121. jpsb
Quoting 1102. Naga5000:



Funny how that first graph, unsourced mind you,

The second graph from Steven Goddard a.k.a. Tony Heller, who has had to walk back multiple accusations thrown at climate science for having no basis in reality, besides the obvious issue here is trying to infer one day's temperature image is somehow representative of larger scale trends,

Wah Wah, Try again? Better yet, please don't. If this is your "science", it's nothing more than embarrassing.



Sorry you don't like my picture of glacial maximum how about this one?




btw if you right click on an image you will get the information on it source (view image info). Which is why I don't brother to "source" images but do "source" text.
1122. LargoFl
Quoting 1118. Neapolitan:

From that article:

"If we're trying to combat global warming, could a little cooling action from the sun actually help turn down the heat on Earth?

"Maybe, but it wouldn't do much, and not for very long. Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research used a computer model to predict the effect of a future "grand solar minimum" on Earth's climate from 2020 to 2070. The model suggested the minimum might temporarily slow down the warming process by 20-30 percent. But within a few decades afterward, the temperatures would go right back to where they would have been anyway. Sigh.

CORRECTION: A previous version of this article incorrectly phrased that another grand solar minimum would cause global cooling, as opposed to slowing down the warming process."

Summary: no ice age is going to save us from ourselves.
yes we'll see over the coming years...funny thing is..either cooling or heating up...crop failures are in our future in many places on earth.
Edit: Neapolitan beat me to it.
1124. LargoFl
well scientists say the global cooling happens on earth every 11,000 years..guess we are due.
Hitting 80 degrees at 10:30 am. Should see easy mid 80s today.
Quoting 1121. jpsb:



Sorry you don't like my picture of glacial maximum how about this one?



btw if you right click on an image you will get the information on it source (view image info). Which is why I don't brother to "source" images but do "source" text.


Uhh...no sourced as in where the data comes from. Posting another image doesn't do much. Wow, so your saying the planet was different 20,000 years ago, who would've thunk it? Back to reality, we know why that is and why this current period is different than the past. You don't understand forcings and think things happen through magic, we get it, but seriously, enough is enough.

By the way, there is no need to selectively edit my post to make it look like I said something I didn't.
1128. Patrap


Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Quoting 1117. Patrap:



LOL

A website is not Science, and a story is neither,

Heres another from that site, Was Jesus Christ a Ginger?
LOL!
1130. Patrap
.......guess we are due.



1131. ricderr
Ric, was following what you were saying, but you lost me with the last line:

"this can be as much if not more than half of the total claim that will not be paid to you"

?


la.....when the adjusters issues a report.....there's three sections to each line item


replacement cash value....how much the item or service would cost to replace today

depreciation.... based on the age of the item or service how much it has lost value....as an example..most household items depreciate at about 8 percent a year...while structural items last much longer...but services such as paint...drywall....flooring...typical items that will have be replaced or rebuilt due to a flood will have depreciation...

actual cash value....which is the difference of the replacement cash value minus the depreciation.....

the first check insurance will give you in the actual cash value minus your deductible...then once the work done/items replaced...and you provide receipts...the insurance company will issue you another check to to equal their payment to replacement cash value...once again though...less your deductible.....

if they only pay at actual cash value...the added monies to replace everything more than the ACV...that's on you

February 1934 was one of the coldest of the past hundred years in the Eastern two thirds of the U.S. Summer 1934 was record hot and the 30s overall were very warm for that time (eclipsed by the 80s, in turn eclipsed by the 90s, in turn eclipsed by the 00s)

The cold is WEATHER. The jet stream has just moved into an orientation where it's eastern NOAM's turn for the lemons. This also happened (for longer and worse) in 1976-77. Spring 1977 reversed and was one of the warmest of record in eastern NOAM.

Quoting 1056. carolinabelle:

Wow, huge disagreement between the NAM & GFS for tomorrow here in the Charleston area - it would certainly be a mess if the NAM were to verify, though I'm not betting on it given our weather patterns this winter!




URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
942 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-042>045-047>050-052-232245-
/O.CON.KCHS.ZR.Y.0001.150224T0900Z-150224T1900Z/
JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-
CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...ALLENDALE...
HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER...
RIDGELAND...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
DANIEL ISLAND...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON
942 AM EST MON FEB 23 2015

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 2 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* IMPACTS...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PRODUCE
ICY PATCHES ON ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. ICY PATCHES COULD ALSO DEVELOP ON OTHER PAVED
SURFACES SUCH AS PARKING LOTS...SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAYS.

* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON AND BEAUFORT AREAS.
ALSO...PARTS OF JENKINS AND SCREVEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A LIGHT COATING.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
DAYBREAK TO 12 PM TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...30 TO 32 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONSIDER DELAYING MOTOR VEHICLE TRAVEL UNTIL FREEZING RAIN ENDS
AND ROAD CONDITIONS IMPROVE. IF YOU MUST DRIVE...ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. ANTICIPATE ICY ROADS...SLOW YOUR
DRIVING SPEED AND AVOID SUDDEN BRAKING AND ACCELERATION.

IF YOU MUST WALK OUTDOORS...USE CAUTION AS PAVED SURFACES COULD
BE SLICK. MANY INJURIES OCCUR DUE TO FALLS ON SURFACES COVERED
WITH SNOW AND ICE.
I think scale is the concept most denialists can't wrap their minds around. The idea that the globe may actually have been warming since the 1850s should not be outside the realm of thought. Certainly the idea that natural cycles of cooler and warmer wx may influence perception should be readily understood. However, if one cannot grasp the scale of climate change, one is hardly likely to agree that it exists.
Quoting 1124. LargoFl:

well scientists say the global cooling happens on earth every 11,000 years..guess we are due.
Its one thing to hope for an ice age because we are approximately around the time that a natural cycle may occur, give or take a couple thousand years. It's quite another thing to know that the massive amounts CO2 and other chemicals that we are releasing into our atmosphere are rapidly causing changes never before seen on this planet.
1136. LargoFl
Will Global warming affect crops?..union of concerned scientists page..........Link
1137. jpsb
Quoting 1114. Neapolitan:

As of 2010 (the most recent calculations I could find), it takes about 65 hours of manmade CO2 emissions to equal a normal year's worth of volcanic CO2. Or to put it another way: there'd need to be a Mt. Pinatubo-sized eruption every 12 hours--or a Mount St. Helens-size eruption every three hours--throughout the year to equal fossil fuel emissions.

It's not volcanoes.


Volcanic eruptions effect climate by injecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. CO2 is not a player unless vast amounts are released, vast as in the great permian extinction event of 250 ish million years ago.
Quoting 1124. LargoFl:

well scientists say the global cooling happens on earth every 11,000 years..guess we are due.


the cooling started about 8,000 years ago and was abruptly reversed around the start of the industrial revolution.
1139. LargoFl
one good thing about your blog doc..it sure gets people informed and talking about the coming changes..and that's a plus
Quoting 1116. LAbonbon:


You get a gold star for critical thinking skills!



Alright! Looks like I better get to work - that resume's not updating itself. :)
1141. ncstorm
So tomorrow I'm just going to look out my window and if its snowing/Freezing rain then I'll know..the models even less than 24 hours out from an event are struggling..


6z GFS




12z GFS

Quoting 1131. ricderr:

Ric, was following what you were saying, but you lost me with the last line:

"this can be as much if not more than half of the total claim that will not be paid to you"

?


la.....when the adjusters issues a report.....there's three sections to each line item


replacement cash value....how much the item or service would cost to replace today

depreciation.... based on the age of the item or service how much it has lost value....as an example..most household items depreciate at about 8 percent a year...while structural items last much longer...but services such as paint...drywall....flooring...typical items that will have be replaced or rebuilt due to a flood will have depreciation...

actual cash value....which is the difference of the replacement cash value minus the depreciation.....

the first check insurance will give you in the actual cash value minus your deductible...then once the work done/items replaced...and you provide receipts...the insurance company will issue you another check to to equal their payment to replacement cash value...once again though...less your deductible.....

if they only pay at actual cash value...the added monies to replace everything more than the ACV...that's on you



Thanks for the more detailed explanation.
1143. Patrap
You need coolin'

CoCoRaHS site nearby not reporting, but this is a decent result. MTD .59
1145. jpsb
Quoting 1122. LargoFl:

yes we'll see over the coming years...funny thing is..either cooling or heating up...crop failures are in our future in many places on earth.


Perhaps not, the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period were times of prosperity. But the Little ice age was a time of starvation, disease and poverty.
Good Morning Folks. Large parts of Conus continue to experience bitter cold and precip today and it feels like Spring in Florida with temps in the 70's in North Florida yesterday. Here is the big picture from NWS for Conus:

Wintry precipitation for western and southern U.S. through Monday

A storm system and arctic cold front will bring winter weather to parts of the western and southern U.S. through Monday. Heavy snow will be possible across higher elevations from California into the Rockies. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain will be possible from New Mexico into the Gulf Coast states.



On the flood insurance issue, my house has a small stream in the backyard and we have to have flood insurance. Those policies are a good investment if you live in a flood zone or area with poor drainage. Tropical Storm Faye a few years ago was a big wake-up call for folks who did not not live in a flood zone. That storm flooded my back yard with a "river" and while the water levels never reached the first floor of the house, the basement flooded up about 16 inches; thankfully, we did not have anything of value down there (just an empty space) but we did do a claim and got a new door-doorframe (old ones swollen from the water) and some waterproofing for next time. Also know that the maximum coverage for the national health insurance coverage is $ 250,000.00 and that mortgage lenders are often "greedy" and just waiting to slap on a "gap" policy costing tons of money if you fail to keep your regular insurance (whether hazard or flood) current. Just had my insurance agent battle it out with my mortgage holder over a "gap" policy they tried to slap on us; the house is worth more than $ 250,000.00, we took out our flood policy for the max (same policy for the last 13 years) of $ 250,000.00 in November, and we got a letter from the mortgage company (for the first time ever) "adding" another policy (for $ 700.00) to cover the "gap"; that it not required under federal law and they took it off when I threatened to get a lawyer and fight it.
Quoting 1109. jpsb:




Short term?

Undersea Volcanoes Linked To Climate Change By Researchers




That study describes a feedback not a cause...

"Tolstoy’s study was conducted at the East Pacific Rise spreading ridge, located off the shore of western South America. The study found connections between ice age cycles and seafloor corrugations which extends back 800,000 years. She discovered that when glaciers expand and the sea level drops, more lava oozes from the ridge volcanoes. Her findings were published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters on February 5, 2015.

Richard Katz, the co-author of a separate study published in the journal Science, indicated that sea levels rising as a result of ice sheets melting has an effect on underwater volcanoes."

So what caused the sea and ice levels to increase or decrease initially? It sure wasn't the volcanoes if volcanic activity was then effected by it. is this getting through to you? Are you starting to understand the difference between forcings and feedbacks? That volcanic activity was a feedback here and not an initial forcing? I don't know what else I can do to help you, you seem to read the science, yet not comprehend any of it.
1148. Xandra
Quoting 1095. jpsb:

... From 2006

Abdusamatov and his colleagues at the Russian Academy of Sciences astronomical observatory said the prediction is based on measurement of solar emissions, Novosti reported. They expect the cooling to begin within a few years and to reach its peak between 2055 and 2060 ....

Khabibullo Abdusamatov is a space scientist, not a climate scientist, who rejects the well-understood physics of greenhouse gases.

Abdussamatov thinks solar irradiance is in for a “bicentennial decrease”. And has been kind enough to predict it. Unfortunately it won’t be obvious until about, what, 2016, that he is hopelessly wrong. But it beats most of the nutters who just wurble and nitpick and never predict anything.
1149. Patrap
Come March 1, we will have gone 30 straight continuous years of monthly Warm Biased Global Temps,


So if yer waiting fo da coolin's to start anyday, yer gonna be waiting for a long, long, time.


You need coolin'
1150. ricderr
well scientists say the global cooling happens on earth every 11,000 years..guess we are due.

why is it that people will trust the outlying scientist who says we're due for an ice age...but won't trust the majority of scientists who say human contribution is worsening climate warming?
Quoting 1150. ricderr:

well scientists say the global cooling happens on earth every 11,000 years..guess we are due.

why is it that people will trust the outlying scientist who says we're due for an ice age...but won't trust the majority of scientists who say human contribution is worsening climate warming?


classic confirmation bias
Quoting 1150. ricderr:

well scientists say the global cooling happens on earth every 11,000 years..guess we are due.

why is it that people will trust the outlying scientist who says we're due for an ice age...but won't trust the majority of scientists who say human contribution is worsening climate warming?

Cause most people, no matter their position, like the "staus quo".
Inertia
Quoting 1124. LargoFl:

well scientists say the global cooling happens on earth every 11,000 years..guess we are due.
It seems the global cooling was happening ..... until the "industrial revolution" with coal and petroleum driven industries began to impact the globe .... we likely would have seen greater effects earlier if it had not been for the volcanic eruptions of the 19th century ....



27 degrees in Dallas. Should be an icy mess soon if not already.
One more reason to love xkcd ...

Quoting 1070. BahaHurican:

See, I'm all for the ice age, since it would mean more land for the Bahamas, while temperatures would remain palatable. Too bad, so sad for those whose homes would be overrun by a glacier or two ...

My point, though, was that it's so easy to be selfish and only view the situation from one's narrow little perspective. The blogger I answered only sees climate change from its effects on him personally. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is still feeling the heat.
It would also bring a lot more land to Florida to, and my property would no longer be Bay Front.
Quoting 1145. jpsb:



Perhaps not, the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period were times of prosperity. But the Little ice age was a time of starvation, disease and poverty.
Yeah, for one part of the globe. A lot of information about other parts of the globe is just not there [thinks again about the Spanish destruction of hundreds of years of Mayan texts]. We do know that civilizations nearer the equator flourished during the European Dark Ages.

When one moves away from the Eurocentric view, it becomes obvious that the whole concept of climate change impacts [not just the AGW we argue about here] is rather more complex than some want to accept.
Quoting NativeSun:
It would also bring a lot more land to Florida to, and my property would no longer be Bay Front.


We need a super Ice Age where the GOM freezes over. Then I can drive the ice road from Fort Myers to Corpus Christi to see friends and family.
That would save me a lot of miles.
Quoting 1101. CarolinaHurricanes87:



My amateur eyes tell me you're on the very northern fringe according to the 12z NAM. Maybe some flurries but doesn't look like much. However, Charlotte was on the northern fringe a day or two ago, so at least you have the models trending north
Thanks.
1160. Xandra
Officials: Fur Rondy sled dog races cancelled due to 'unseasonable weather'


Image courtesy of Renee Gilbert

ANCHORAGE - The Fur Rondy Open World Championship Sled Dog Race has been cancelled this year due to 'unseasonable weather', officials announced in a press release, Sunday.

The race that was scheduled from Feb. 27 to March 1, has been a fixture in the 10-day festival since 1946, according to the Fur Rondy website.

"Despite the best efforts of countless volunteers who worked during the weekend to prepare the trails for the championships, the warm weather and heavy rain left conditions unsafe for our mushers to be able to race," officials wrote.

In recognition of ten-time Fur Rondy sprint race winner George Attla's achievements, officials also announced a memorial ceremony for the Huslia musher who passed away last week. The memorial service will take place Feb. 28, at noon, outside the Rondy headquarters on the corner of 4th Avenue and D street.
From The Telegraph:

Taps run dry in Brazil's biggest city as drought bites
It may have the world's biggest water supply and the seventh biggest economy, but that's not enough to keep water running during the country's worst dry stretch since the 1930s

By Donna Bowater, Sao Paulo 7:00AM GMT 23 Feb 2015

Ediane Marquis is in a rush to leave work at an infant school in the east of Sao Paulo.

It is the afternoon in Brazil's commercial capital, and she knows her mother-in-law will be without water as the city struggles with its worst drought on record.

"The water goes off at 1pm and comes back on the next day," said Mrs Marquis, 51. "Her bathroom and utility area are connected to the mains supply so she has to come to my house. It's changed her life, it's changed everything."

So far, she said, the nursery where she works has managed to stay open but schools, universities and hospitals are having to adapt to cope with reduced water supplies.

With the lowest rainfall since 1930, reservoirs that supply almost half of the 20 million people in the metropolitan area - including the financial district - are close to running dry.

Doctors have reportedly had to cut short dialysis for patients with kidney failure because of the shortage while schools have introduced water-saving measures to avoid suspending lessons.
Read full article

Quoting 1107. CuriousAboutClimate:



so almost 10 years ago, this guy predicted cooling to begin? well, the exact opposite happened.
Not really, you need to closely check the actual temps and not the rounded off temps.
Quoting 1150. ricderr:

well scientists say the global cooling happens on earth every 11,000 years..guess we are due.

why is it that people will trust the outlying scientist who says we're due for an ice age...but won't trust the majority of scientists who say human contribution is worsening climate warming?
Thing is, we ARE due for an ice age .... SO why aren't we getting one? Why are we warming instead????

I keep thinking that every argument people make to suggest that AGW is not happening or is not anthropogenic in nature eventually comes back to support the idea that our current climate change trends are indeed man-made.
Quoting 1162. NativeSun:

Not really, you need to closely check the actual temps and not the rounded off temps.


I don't even know what that's supposed to mean, let alone what it really means
Roads becoming ice covered in the Dallas area.

DOT Cameras
Link
1166. Patrap
Quoting 1164. CuriousAboutClimate:



I don't even know what that's supposed to mean, let alone what it really means


Too much Sun does dat dey say.



Sea fog might hang around all day at St. Pete Beach.
1168. ncstorm
model run comparisms for CMC

00z


12z

Final run, this includes the end of the storm, now .67" for Riverside. This was a good storm for us....
1170. Drakoen
UKMET 12z much close to the coast than the American models


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1115. CuriousAboutClimate:



one image is an estimate of ice coverage 20,000 years ago, the other is a map of temperatures. the thing is, the temperatures shown in the right image are not responsible for what happened in the left image because ice caps grow due to cold summers, not winters. I'll leave you to ponder why that is.
Ponder this, lets see if the summers are becoming cooler, not just in the last few years. CO2 equal minor trace gas, yes a green house gas but a minor trace gas, I would worry more about air and water Pollution as these will end out civilization long before a minor trace gas, then there is methane but we won't go there now. You all better hope CO2 keeps the atmosphere a little warmer because you really don't want another ice age to happen in your lifetime or the near future as it will happen sooner or later and when the PDO and AMO began cooling in earnest with a low solar cycle I pray we don't go into a mini ice age, as that would be a lot more catastrophic than the earth warming a degree or so in the next 200 or so years. As a species we know very little about what drives the climate, and as a species we are vey young. Give us another few centuries to figure it out than maybe we can make a valid hypothesis on climate change. How long is our reliable knowledge of the weather go back, a couple hundred years.
Quoting 1172. NativeSun:

Ponder this, lets see if the summers are becoming cooler, not just in the last few years. CO2 equal minor trace gas, yes a green house gas but a minor trace gas, I would worry more about air and water Pollution as these will end out civilization long before a minor trace gas, then there is methane but we won't go there now. You all better hope CO2 keeps the atmosphere a little warmer because you really don't want another ice age to happen in your lifetime or the near future as it will happen sooner or later and when the PDO and AMO began cooling in earnest with a low solar cycle I pray we don't go into a mini ice age, as that would be a lot more catastrophic than the earth warming a degree or so in the next 200 or so years. As a species we know very little about what drives the climate, and as a species we are vey young. Give us another few centuries to figure it out than maybe we can make a valid hypothesis on climate change. How long is our reliable knowledge of the weather go back, a couple hundred years.




For the love of everything holy, go read some science.
Quoting 1172. NativeSun:

You all better hope CO2 keeps the atmosphere a little warmer because you really don't want another ice age to happen in your lifetime or the near future


in case you hadn't noticed, the earth was cooling and headed toward the next ice age until the start of the industrial revolution. the ice age that we were headed for, for all intents and purposes, has essentially been called off. Regarding your points about ocean cycles and the sun, I just want to point out that the PDO was negative and appears to be going positive again. solar output has been declining for over 30 years and has yet to result in cooling.
1175. txjac
Quoting 1154. Sfloridacat5:

27 degrees in Dallas. Should be an icy mess soon if not already.



My son is near Abilene, TX ...it's snowing there and pretty cold (25F)
He sent me a pic ...doesnt compare to the ones that we have seen from up north
He said driving is treacherous
1176. vis0
Quoting 1158. Sfloridacat5:



We need a super Ice Age where the GOM freezes over. Then I can drive the ice road from Fort Myers to Corpus Christi to see friends and family.
That would save me a lot of miles.
Think if we could build an ice road & ice tunnels (barbamz could teach us the latter) through the NORTH (Canada , NE) then compact all the snow into big cubes and slide them towards California. friction smixtion : - P
Quoting 978. BahaHurican:

There are SO many things wrong with this.... however, to bat my corner, NO to global warming, since the best place on this Earth to live - to wit, the Commonwealth of The Bahamas - would pretty much disappear underwater due to the melting ice induced sea rise.... [our nickname isn't the Ephemeral Islands for nothing ...]


Sorry, the parts of the world that are responsible for the bulk of its economy (US and North/Central Europe) are entirely too cold for optimum human living conditions. I really don't care if the Bahamas disappear if it means NYC would have milder winters. I really don't care about where you live nor about those in Africa, they can relocate to Siberia for all I care.

I'm not an idiot to disagree against science and say AGW isn't happening, I'm saying it's not such a bad thing for the majority of places that actually matter.