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Weather Underground Debuts Its Newest App: Storm

By: Bob Henson 8:50 PM GMT on February 18, 2015

Fans of the widely-used Weather Underground app have cause to celebrate with today's release of the full-featured Storm app. The initial iOS release is downloadable free for iPhone and iPad through the App Store. Produced in a collaboration between WU and Intellicast, Storm builds on the usefulness and clean design of the main WU app, and the data and forecasting strengths of the two partners, to provide an array of new features designed with storm trackers and weather enthusiasts in mind.

High-definition radar: Storm provides access to data from the national network of NEXRAD radar sites at the top resolution available, with a razor-sharp 250 meters (800 feet) between data points. Users can view animations of past activity and extrapolations of current activity out to an hour ahead. When you select the radar nearest your location, a single-site sweeping feature displays reflectivity and velocity in near-real time.

Storm tracks: For each key area of current storm action identified by the app, Storm provides a strength rating, storm motion, precipitation rate, expected arrival times for the largest communities in the storm's path, any potential hazards (such as wind, hail, lightning, and tornadoes), and more.



Figure 1. The Storm app’s severe weather alert feature (shown here on the iPad) highlights real-time precipitation and lightning, along with any NWS watches, warnings, or advisories issued for the selected area.


Full-screen interactive map: The fully customizable Storm map interface allows you to display animated surface and jet-stream-level winds and fronts, as well as tropical data, severe weather alerts, and even earthquakes. I especially like the semi-transparent display of NWS watches, warnings, and advisories, which makes it easy to see where more than one type of alert is in effect. Also displayable: data from the WU network of more than 100,000 personal weather stations around the globe.

Customizable alerts and notifications: Users can be alerted of lightning, precipitation (within a 30-mile radius), and NWS warning polygons. The lightning alerts include a display of where cloud-to-ground lightning has struck in the last 15 minutes.

“Weather Underground and Intellicast have a long history of providing highly specialized weather information,” said Weather Underground manager Jim Menard “Recognizing the strengths of both companies, we decided to join forces to create the ultimate storm-tracking app.”



Figure 2. A single-site radar sweep on the Storm app’s iPhone interface.

Wunderground News

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Oh look! There's a app for that .
Thank$ for the update
Here in So Cal, I can use the app to track the drizzle possible Saturday / Sunday. I hope there will be some storm action here to follow, I do plan to download the app when I get home.
Thanks Dr. Henson!
Thanks, Mr. Henson

While on the topic of apps, I have the main Weather Underground app downloaded on my iPhone. The issue I ran into yesterday is that there is no way to report sleet or freezing rain--just snow and rain. That could be something to add in later updates.
Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks, Mr. Henson

While on the topic of apps, I have the main Weather Underground app downloaded on my iPhone. The issue I ran into yesterday is that there is no way to report sleet or freezing rain--just snow and rain. That could be something to add in later updates.


Also, sometimes it's really out of sync with the weather conditions but yet it says it updated a few seconds or minutes ago.
Thanks Mr. Henson..Amazing what phones do today...I remember asking the neighbors to hang up so we could call the grocery.
There are plenty of great weather apps that have good radar already out there.
Downloaded.
Quoting 3. oxnardprof:
Here in So Cal, I can use the app to track the drizzle possible Saturday / Sunday. I hope there will be some storm action here to follow, I do plan to download the app when I get home.


Heh, I'm not getting my hopes up.


Tampa Bay area. Talk about a roller coaster ride.
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Quoting 8. tampabaymatt:

There are plenty of great weather apps that have good radar already out there.


I refuse to buy the one that is $10 even though it seems to be the most popular. That is ridiculously overpriced. It's a radar for pete's sake.
U.S. refinery strike enters 18th day as talks restart


HOUSTON (Reuters) - The largest U.S refinery workers strike since 1980 entered its 18th day on Wednesday as union and oil company representatives prepared to renew face-to-face negotiations over pay and safety, after a week's hiatus.

Related Stories

Union and Shell to resume talks Tuesday over U.S. refinery pact Reuters
U.S. refineries strike to widen as walkouts planned at BP plants Reuters
U.S. workers strike for second day at nine refineries; one to shut Reuters
Union rejects sixth refinery offer from Shell, talks recess Reuters

Shell, union resume communications over U.S. refinery contract: spokesman Reuters

More than 5,000 workers at 11 plants, including nine refineries accounting for 13 percent of U.S. production capacity, remained on strike with little sign of a quick end.

Face-to-face talks between representatives of the United Steelworkers union (USW) and lead oil company negotiator Royal Dutch Shell Plc have been on hold as the company compiled a reply to an information request from the union and weighed a counterproposal from the union.

The union's lead negotiator International Vice President Gary Beevers told Reuters in an interview on Monday that safe staffing levels at refineries and chemical plants remain a key sticking point. The union also wants wage increases. [ID:nL1N0VQ0TD]

No new strike notices have been issued by the USW since Feb. 6 when workers at plants in Whiting, Indiana, and Toledo, Ohio, were told to walk off their jobs starting the next day.

Tesoro Corp's 166,000-bpd plant in Martinez, California, was the only refinery to cease operations due to the strike. Part of it was already shut for maintenance and after the walkout started the rest was idled. Tesoro officials have said production at the refinery will not resume for the duration of the strike.

Shell has rescheduled from March until September a planned overhaul of a hydrocracking unit at its 327,000 barrels per day (bpd) joint-venture refinery in Deer Park, Texas, sources told Reuters on Monday. The refinery's gasoline-producing fluidic catalytic cracking unit remains shut, though the rest of the plant is operating as usual. [ID:L1N0VR050]

The USW is seeking a three-year, industrywide pact that would cover 30,000 workers at 63 U.S. refineries that together account for two-thirds of domestic capacity.

Companies have called on trained temporary replacement workers to keep their plants running at nearly normal levels.

(Changes day of week in lead to Wednesday)

(Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston; Editing by Terry Wade and Alden Bentley)
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Tampa Bay area. Talk about a roller coaster ride.


Yep, we go from 35 degrees (32 degrees Wuderground) Friday morning to 82 degrees Sunday afternoon.
any idea if and or when it will available for other devices than apple?
Quoting 14. wxgeek723:



I refuse to buy the one that is $10 even though it seems to be the most popular. That is ridiculously overpriced. It's a radar for pete's sake.


Somebody's gotta eat...and drive their ferrari to work
Might be a nice app but at least half of us will never know. How is the app any improvement over the normal WU site, which I can access just fine on my S4 Mini? Since I already cough up my $10 a year here, I refuse to pay for another WU app.
Quoting ricderr:
any idea if and or when it will available for other devices than apple?
Considering all the recent apps have been developed for Apple products, I wouldn't hold my breath.
Quoting 17. ricderr:

any idea if and or when it will available for other devices than apple?


There is another device other than apple?



(just kidding). Getting ready to ditch my apple and go 'droid myself.
Quoting hydrus:
Thanks Mr. Henson..Amazing what phones do today...I remember asking the neighbors to hang up so we could call the grocery.
Ah, party lines. They were a great source of entertainment on occasion. I wonder what the lower age cutoff is for people who have had a party line?

The lower three maps at right show our current forecast Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The exact lines between snow, ice, and just plain rain will likely shift a bit as we near the event and our forecast guidance comes into agreement.

Here is the general outlook:

Friday:

Mid-South/Tennessee Valley snow, sleet, freezing rain. Snow in Rockies, Front Range, western Great Lakes.
Cities to watch: Little Rock | Memphis | Nashville
Saturday:

Snow from the Rockies to the southern Great Lakes and into the Northeast
Sleet/freezing rain possible south of that snow swath.
Precipitation should change to rain in most of Friday's sleet/ice area.
Cities to watch: St. Louis | Cleveland | Baltimore
Sunday:

Snow, sleet and some freezing rain may persist in the Northeast and Appalachians. Precipitation may change to rain along part of I-95 corridor. Snow continues along Front Range of central/southern Rockies.
Cities to watch: Denver | Boston | NYC
If that wasn't enough, with the cold air reinforced this weekend, and more upper-level energy lurking over the West, we can't rule out additional rounds of snow, sleet and freezing rain from the southern Plains into the Southeast early next week.
this blog is from Bob Henson!! good job!!
Link

Interesting article. Not sure of the legitimacy of the site though.
Quoting sar2401:
Might be a nice app but at least half of us will never know. How is the app any improvement over the normal WU site, which I can access just fine on my S4 Mini? Since I already cough up my $10 a year here, I refuse to pay for another WU app.


Yeah, S5 here.
Something to consider if I upgrade to another phone with more memory; I have had the same "old" I-Phone for the last 5 years that suits me just fine and I can't download some of the newer apps that require an updated model. Between a Noaa Radar Pro (with GPS for anywhere I am) and a good Hurricane App (with all the current NOAA satt loops, NHC reports, and NOAA weather radio) on this phone, they work fine if I am in a pinch (or on a fishing trip or vacation) and can't get to a computer or TV as long as I have cell coverage.


here come the cold weather for a few days for the northeast and rain for the northeast on sunday maybe new york city around 42F
Quoting 22. sar2401:

Ah, party lines. They were a great source of entertainment on occasion. I wonder what the lower age cutoff is for people who have had a party line?

Guess it depended where you lived.

From Wiki:

By the 1980s, party lines were displaced in most localities as they could not support subscriber-owned equipment such as answering machines and computer modems. The electro-mechanical switching equipment required for their operation was rapidly becoming obsolete, supplanted by electronic and digital switching equipment. The new telephone exchange equipment offered vertical service code calling features such as call forwarding and call waiting, but often was incompatible with multi-party lines.

In 1971, Southern Bell had announced plans for phase-out of party lines in North Carolina.[29] In 1989, the Chesapeake and Potomac Telephone Company replaced party lines with private lines in Talcott, West Virginia, a rural area which once had as many as sixteen subscribers on one line.[30] In 1991, Southwestern Bell set out to replace all of its party lines in Texas with private lines by 1995.[31] Woodbury, Connecticut's independent telephone company abandoned its last party lines in 1991, the last in that state to do so.
Some snow showers kept temperatures lower than expected in Atlanta. High near PDK was 34F, never reaching the 39F high issued by the NWS. Will be interesting to see what is in store tomorrow with regards to the cold, and possible winter storm Friday into Saturday.
Quoting 21. Dakster:



There is another device other than apple?



(just kidding). Getting ready to ditch my apple and go 'droid myself.


People would be surprised. The hype for all things Apple leaves most casual observers thinking that Apple owns the market, but the reality is something entirely different. And I say this as the author of a couple apps.

Looking forward, btw, to another round of somewhere between 1 and 10 inches of snow over the next 24 hours.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Guess it depended where you lived.

From Wiki:

By the 1980s, party lines were displaced in most localities as they could not support subscriber-owned equipment such as answering machines and computer modems. The electro-mechanical switching equipment required for their operation was rapidly becoming obsolete, supplanted by electronic and digital switching equipment. The new telephone exchange equipment offered vertical service code calling features such as call forwarding and call waiting, but often was incompatible with multi-party lines.

In 1971, Southern Bell had announced plans for phase-out of party lines in North Carolina.[29] In 1989, the Chesapeake and Potomac Telephone Company replaced party lines with private lines in Talcott, West Virginia, a rural area which once had as many as sixteen subscribers on one line.[30] In 1991, Southwestern Bell set out to replace all of its party lines in Texas with private lines by 1995.[31] Woodbury, Connecticut's independent telephone company abandoned its last party lines in 1991, the last in that state to do so.
I'll bet those people in Woodbury were good and cranked off to still have a party line in 1991. So the outlier would be you lived in Woodbury, you were five years old, and you used the phone. The youngest possible person would be 29. I'd guess it would be about 45 for the rest of the country. Geez, I feel old. :-)
Quoting tampabaymatt:
Link

Interesting article. Not sure of the legitimacy of the site though.
It's just a news site summarizing the latest guesses from CSU and TSR. They would be a lot more useful in a real newspaper, since I could use it to wrap up garbage. :-)
Next system will be a nasty one....

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT...WITH VARIABLES
LIKE SKY COVER...WINDS AND SNOW COVER EFFECTS ALL PLAYING A ROLE.
WE BELIEVE MOST AREAS NORTH OF I 40 WILL DIP BELOW ZERO...WITH
MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE SOUTH. THE GREATEST TEMP
FALL WILL OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK. ALONG WITH THE FRIGID
TEMPS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP MOSTLY INTO THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD...IN SPITE OF SUNSHINE. IF THE FORECAST
VERIFIES...WE WILL SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE FOR LOW TEMPS...AND
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. OUR WEST COUNTIES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD...THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUDS. THOSE CLOUDS MAY
PRODUCE A LITTLE SNOW.

THE NEXT BIG CONCERN IS THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES AWAY ON FRIDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE AIR WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FRIDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. THESE
SETUPS OFTEN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW
WE ARE POPULATING WITH A WIDE MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN ABOUT 1
INCH OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE END OF FRIDAY. THIS ALONE WOULD
CONCERN US...BUT MUCH BIGGER ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE. AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS COULD MEAN
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION...TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. OUR BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE AN INCH
OR 2 OF SNOW...AND A TENTH OR 2 OF ICE...BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL LIQUID SATURDAY MORNING. AS USUAL...THESE DETAILS WHICH HANG
ON PRECISE TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE CHANGING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SNOW AND ICE
ON MID TN TRAVEL...WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS MEANS
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.
REMEMBER THAT WATCHES ARE A WAY TO PREPARE...SOME ARE UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS AS THE EVENTS APPROACH AND MANY TURN INTO ADVISORIES OR
NOTHING AT ALL. EXPECT MANY UPDATES TO YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
WINTER WX FORECAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM TO ADDRESS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AFTER THE WINTER WX IS DONE. AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
WELL OVER 1 INCH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG
FORCING WILL GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 1 INCH. WE DO
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME...BUT LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KY BORDER WHERE THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH. THIS EVENT WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF WITH A
POSSIBLE MIX TO LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.



The wind may also be an issue , and severe thunderstorms.

Quoting 27. weathermanwannabe:

Something to consider if I upgrade to another phone with more memory; I have had the same "old" I-Phone for the last 5 years that suits me just fine and I can't download some of the newer apps that require an updated model. Between a Noaa Radar Pro (with GPS for anywhere I am) and a good Hurricane App (with all the current NOAA satt loops, NHC reports, and NOAA weather radio) on this phone, they work fine if I am in a pinch (or on a fishing trip or vacation) and can't get to a computer or TV as long as I have cell coverage.


I have that problem as well. Can only upgrade so far... And my iPads are even worse. They can only go to 5.1
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Some snow showers kept temperatures lower than expected in Atlanta. High near PDK was 34F, never reaching the 39F high issued by the NWS. Will be interesting to see what is in store tomorrow with regards to the cold, and possible winter storm Friday into Saturday.
Being closer to Canada and all that snow makes a big difference. It's 49 here, which is close to the prediction of 48, although this morning was much colder at 24. The next couple of days will be terrible. I don't think you get above freezing tomorrow, and the low should be near 10. Not much better for you on Friday temperature wise although we're going to have the same overrunning/WAA thing we saw Monday. The upside is you'll start out colder, with a better chance of all snow. The downside is you stand a chance of getting freezing rain on top of the snow. Like I said, it's going to be terrible. Down here, nothing happens at all. No rain until maybe Saturday and Sunday, when we'll probably get some killer tornadoes or something, but they'll be warm tornadoes.

I give up........
Quoting hydrus:
Next system will be a nasty one....

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT...WITH VARIABLES
LIKE SKY COVER...WINDS AND SNOW COVER EFFECTS ALL PLAYING A ROLE.
WE BELIEVE MOST AREAS NORTH OF I 40 WILL DIP BELOW ZERO...WITH
MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE SOUTH. THE GREATEST TEMP
FALL WILL OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK. ALONG WITH THE FRIGID
TEMPS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP MOSTLY INTO THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE VERY COLD...IN SPITE OF SUNSHINE. IF THE FORECAST
VERIFIES...WE WILL SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE FOR LOW TEMPS...AND
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COLD
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. OUR WEST COUNTIES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD...THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUDS. THOSE CLOUDS MAY
PRODUCE A LITTLE SNOW.

THE NEXT BIG CONCERN IS THE SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES AWAY ON FRIDAY...A BROAD
AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE AIR WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FRIDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. THESE
SETUPS OFTEN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW
WE ARE POPULATING WITH A WIDE MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN ABOUT 1
INCH OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE END OF FRIDAY. THIS ALONE WOULD
CONCERN US...BUT MUCH BIGGER ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE. AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MODELS
ARE ALL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THIS COULD MEAN
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION...TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN. OUR BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE AN INCH
OR 2 OF SNOW...AND A TENTH OR 2 OF ICE...BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL LIQUID SATURDAY MORNING. AS USUAL...THESE DETAILS WHICH HANG
ON PRECISE TEMPERATURES IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE CHANGING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SNOW AND ICE
ON MID TN TRAVEL...WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH. THIS MEANS
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.
REMEMBER THAT WATCHES ARE A WAY TO PREPARE...SOME ARE UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS AS THE EVENTS APPROACH AND MANY TURN INTO ADVISORIES OR
NOTHING AT ALL. EXPECT MANY UPDATES TO YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
WINTER WX FORECAST.

ANOTHER PROBLEM TO ADDRESS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AFTER THE WINTER WX IS DONE. AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
WELL OVER 1 INCH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG
FORCING WILL GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 1 INCH. WE DO
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME
...BUT LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KY BORDER WHERE THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH. THIS EVENT WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF WITH A
POSSIBLE MIX TO LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. IT LOOKS
LIKE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.



The wind may also be an issue , and severe thunderstorms.

I think they need to correct this.
39. bwi
Looks like a decent snow squall approaching the western burbs of DC. Winds still southerly in DC, but expecting a switch to westerly and temps to gradually fall tonight after that line goes through.
Quoting Dakster:


I have that problem as well. Can only upgrade so far... And my iPads are even worse. They can only go to 5.1
Hey Dak. All phones have that issue, it just happens sooner with an Apple. One of the reasons I have an Android is the software isn't tied to a company that's also a hardware maker. I don't want to get in to a fanboyz/hater debate, but I just can't afford the upgrade path that owning an Apple entails. Imagine if Microsoft made all our PC's. :-)
41. bwi
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
503 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016-504>508-VAZ051> 055-502-190415-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...
REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK ...CATONSVILLE...
ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMB IA...
ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...CULPEPER...MANAS SAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH
503 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

A LINE OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THROUGH 700 PM EXPECT SNOW SQUALLS
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW COULD PRODUCE A QUICK COATING TO AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY
BE REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW SQUALLS IN SOME AREAS.

TRAVELERS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ADVISED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION.
BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW
WITH SUDDEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE VERY COLD AIR WILL ALLOW ANY SNOW OR
SLUSH ON AREA ROADS TO FREEZE...RESULTING IN ICY CONDITIONS. WIND
CHILLS WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS EVENING.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Not sure how this matches up to this Winter in Tampa.
Tampa (officially) had below normal precipitation for December and January, but much above normal for February.

Tampa

December
normal 2.47”, actual 1.57” (-.90”)

January
normal 2.23", actual 1.75” (-.48”)

February
Normal 2.81”, MTD, 4.22”


Washi getting some snow again....

Ours is REALLY melting away. I guess temps in the upper 30s and 40s will do that.
Quoting 38. sar2401:

I think they need to correct this.
Complex weather systems have a way of warping the models......as well as a few of da Mets....If you can correct it to all rain, by all means do it
Any plans for a Windows Phone version?
Quoting hydrus:
Complex weather systems have a way of warping the models......as well as a few of da Mets....If you can correct it to all rain, by all means do it
I don't think you understand. Look at what I highlighted. I don't they they really expect widespread flooding. They left out the "not", and this going to propagate quickly through social media.

WE DO ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME...

See the missing "not"?
Quoting daddybrownjr24:
Any plans for a Windows Phone version?
I'll take the chance and answer for the crack WU programmers -

NO
Quoting 47. sar2401:

I don't think you understand. Look at what I highlighted. I don't they they really expect widespread flooding. They left out the "not", and this going to propagate quickly through social media.

WE DO ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME...

See the missing "not"?
I did notice that..I thought you meant the windspeed on the chart...my bad.. ;0
Salt trucks were out on the beltway on the way home. Awaiting our snow squall.



watch out for the ice storm in the northeast this weekend
What's the actual name for the app. in the App Store? As of 5:30 pm EST there is no app. called "Storm" from WU.
Quoting 22. sar2401:

Ah, party lines. They were a great source of entertainment on occasion. I wonder what the lower age cutoff is for people who have had a party line?
I would listen in from time to time...Sometimes they would hear me pick up the phone too...:)
Quoting 53. ozelloslim:

What's the actual name for the app. in the App Store? As of 5:30 pm EST there is no app. called "Storm" from WU.


Click on the link and it will take you there
Made up a high of 9 below zero with a windchill of 31 below, it has started to drop now expecting temps here to be somewhere near 30 below with a windchill of 45 below. 
At 45 below your skin will start to freeze in about 5 or 6 minutes. 


watch for this ice and mix storm here
Quoting Drakoen:


Click on the link and it will take you there
No link posted. Is this a phantom app?
Quoting 46. daddybrownjr24:

Any plans for a Windows Phone version?


The funny thing - there is a program that will take anything written in one phone OS and rewrite it to work on the other two. We did S/W development at my previous job and while it isn't perfect it is pretty darn close.

SO to answer the question, if they wanted to they could... ANd they still might. I have no inside info either way.
Tracking the storm on the Storm App
Quoting 59. ozelloslim:

No link posted. Is this a phantom app?


Link

Party is almost over, normal is 67/44.... how's your temps Dakster?
Quoting TheBigBanana:


I wonder how fast that band is moving? It's moving really fast to the east.
Can anyone WUmail me with an explanation of what they are talking about in the new blog. If not, you can give me a call. My number is KLondike 5-435J



Can anyone provide some pics/update on our two Australian cyclones? Lam seems to be approaching landfall.

An emergency warning is in place between Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy as Cyclone Lam approaches Australia's Northern Territory coastline - @SkyNewsAust
Watching the background disappear from my balcony pretty awesome. Lots of cars out on the road.
Quoting 65. Grothar:

Can anyone WUmail me with an explanation of what they are talking about in the new blog. If not, you can give me a call. My number is KLondike 5-435J




how do you download an app on to that..?
Forecasts continue to show temps in the Orlando area well below freezing. Ironically, I am in Orlando right now to experience this. Driving down into Central Florida, I noted the maples and other broadleaf trees fully leafed out, as well as very tender plants like banana palms unscathed without cold damage. If the forecast low of 29 degrees pans out, the vegetation will be in for quite a shock. And as far as I can remember, this area hasn't had a freeze below 30 degrees since the Feb 2010 event. Right now it is dry, not a cloud in the sky, very windy, and surprisingly chilly: reminds me of the conditions the day before other hard freezes in North Florida. This must be quite a rude winter weather awakening for residents of this area who have experienced temps in the 70's and 80's for much of this winter.
more slop...hope the trees can hack it...



A Winter Storm Watch will go into effect for all of Middle Tennessee on Friday at Noon until Noon on Saturday. A mix of accumulating snow, sleet, and ice will be possible. This will create hazardous driving conditions. Stay off roads if at all possible. Conditions should improve Saturday afternoon as precip transitions to all rain and temperatures warm into the mid 40s.
Seriously, what does WU have against Android? The only app we get is the standard WU app that STILL doesn't have push alerts. No WunderStation and no Storm...disappointing.
Snowing moderately. Definitely not as strong as the last squall event.
Quoting 62. Drakoen:



Link
Thanks, got it on my IPad. I live on the Delmarva and a snow squall is moving thru tonight. Moved here from Citrus Co. Fla. in 2013 and record cold ever since. What a mistake! Anybody have a spare icebreaker.
Quoting 66. skycycle:

Can anyone provide some pics/update on our two Australian cyclones? Lam seems to be approaching landfall.

An emergency warning is in place between Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy as Cyclone Lam approaches Australia's Northern Territory coastline - @SkyNewsAust


Lam (eye in upper left corner). Current radar pic. Source (loop is also available but not postable).


Whole Australia. Source.

Tropical Cyclone Marcia: Storm intensifies, tracks towards Queensland coast

Updated 11 minutes ago

Lam: Cyclone-path NT community evacuated

AAP, February 19, 2015 9:40AM
Double trouble for Australia. Marcia is proving more formidable than originally thought.



No word yet on any Android version of the Storm app. We'll keep you posted.
Quoting 71. PSUwxCE23:

Seriously, what does WU have against Android? The only app we get is the standard WU app that STILL doesn't have push alerts. No WunderStation and no Storm...disappointing.


They have positions open for Android Developers. Maybe something on the horizon (EDIT: Nevermind, see above).
Hi,
A good portion of you may know this website. I thought I'd share it anyway because it's fascinating. What a privilege to have this tool at our disposal...

A sample (21:00 UTC surface temperatures):



It will be interesting to see the record cold wave forecast to strike the american southeast with this tool.
The latest GFS has a big surprise for the south..It is 8 to 10 days , but impressive.

Quoting hydrus:
The latest GFS has a big surprise for the south..It is 8 to 10 days , but impressive.


As do the ECMWF and CMC. Here's hoping.

I just want 5 inches (of snow; I'm looking at you aquak).
Some film of snow on the ground and the cars..now imagine if this would have went on for hours...Models show the mid-atlantic having more opportunities after Saturday for snow.Some accumulating snow is possible for Saturday before switching to ice and then rain.
Quoting 80. TropicalAnalystwx13:


As do the ECMWF and CMC. Here's hoping.

I just want 5 inches (of snow; I'm looking at you aquak).
Can you post or link the Euro...I have no access to precip charts..:)
this deep freeze should kill off some unwanted critters for example stink bugs
cold

Wow double hit for Australia. Very interesting how these two systems formed out of one large broad circulation in a monsoon trough. 1 of the lows embedded in the monsoon trough headed west towards the northern coast, (Lam) and the other headed south towards Queensland, (Marcia). Both systems in the past hour appear to be developing an eye on satellite imagery. Marcia looks to be intensifying quickly, wont surprise me if she hits cat 3 or 4. this system was expected to stay weak, but look how mother nature always surprises us. Not a good week for Australia.





Lam



Marcia

Quoting hydrus:
Can you post or link the Euro...I have no access to precip charts..:)

I can't legally--only free products are 850mb temps, MSLP, and 500mb heights.

Low off SE coast = good



northeast going to get more snow!
Quoting 48. mcluvincane:

Wow, latest GFS has lots more snow for the Northeast, especially on the back end of the next system, starts out as rain then turning to a shit load of snow


Not, apparently, for the coastal plain that Boston sits on :( Looks like we're in for a mostly rain event. MEMA sent out an alert about clearing roofs earlier due to so many roof collapses already. I'm going to have to go out tomorrow and start finding all the catch basins that are buried somewhere in 4' or higher mounds of snow so that we don't drown before the bitter cold that follows this storm freezes it all. *sigh* I wish we were getting another foot or two of snow instead and, really, at this point after 90" of snow, that's really something I didn't imagine I'd be hoping for.
Quoting 86. 882MB:

Wow double hit for Australia. Very interesting how these two systems formed out of one large broad circulation in a monsoon trough. 1 of the lows embedded in the monsoon trough headed west towards the northern coast, (Lam) and the other headed south towards Queensland, (Marcia). Both systems in the past hour appear to be developing an eye on satellite imagery. Marcia looks to be intensifying quickly, wont surprise me if she hits cat 3 or 4. this system was expected to stay weak, but look how mother nature always surprises us. Not a good week for Australia.





Lam



Marcia


Lam appeared sheared this morning, looks good now.
Quoting 69. opal92nwf:

Forecasts continue to show temps in the Orlando area well below freezing. Ironically, I am in Orlando right now to experience this. Driving down into Central Florida, I noted the maples and other broadleaf trees fully leafed out, as well as very tender plants like banana palms unscathed without cold damage. If the forecast low of 29 degrees pans out, the vegetation will be in for quite a shock. And as far as I can remember, this area hasn't had a freeze below 30 degrees since the Feb 2010 event. Right now it is dry, not a cloud in the sky, very windy, and surprisingly chilly: reminds me of the conditions the day before other hard freezes in North Florida. This must be quite a rude winter weather awakening for residents of this area who have experienced temps in the 70's and 80's for much of this winter.


Actually, it has been mostly in the 70's a 60's here in Orlando proper this winter. With the exception of one 80+ degree day in Jan and five in December. That being said, tomorrow's forecast high of 49 and the first freeze will be a bit harsh in contrast, but I doubt we will be below freezing long enough to do any real damage. Enjoy your stay here, hitting the theme parks or visiting for another reason?
Quoting 22. sar2401:

Ah, party lines. They were a great source of entertainment on occasion. I wonder what the lower age cutoff is for people who have had a party line?
Out here they were still using party lines in the Family Islands until the mid 1990s.... one phone instrument per SETTLEMENT, not home .... lol .... it still feels weird to call relatives in Long Island and Mayaguana and not have to "send for them" to come and talk to you at a later time ....
Quoting 27. weathermanwannabe:

Something to consider if I upgrade to another phone with more memory; I have had the same "old" I-Phone for the last 5 years that suits me just fine and I can't download some of the newer apps that require an updated model. Between a Noaa Radar Pro (with GPS for anywhere I am) and a good Hurricane App (with all the current NOAA satt loops, NHC reports, and NOAA weather radio) on this phone, they work fine if I am in a pinch (or on a fishing trip or vacation) and can't get to a computer or TV as long as I have cell coverage.
ONe of my friends finally gave up an I3??? due to download issues - and memory size. The phone itself still works fine. [shrugs] I finally changed my own cell after several years strictly because of memory size issues. But I still miss the old one. I'm not sure having a new WunderApp will be enough to make me glad I changed over, instead of just "okay" .... especially since they don't have the Android version ready yet....
Quoting 68. hydrus:

how do you download an app on to that..?
Well, his internet service seems to be working okay, so ....
Quoting 71. PSUwxCE23:

Seriously, what does WU have against Android? The only app we get is the standard WU app that STILL doesn't have push alerts. No WunderStation and no Storm...disappointing.
Developers live in San Fran.

BTW, thanks 2 Barb and wxgeek for the Oz update. I had been following Lam, but totally missed that sneaky Marcia. Given that it has a little more time over coastal waters, Marcia seems to be poised to be noisome to the Central Coast ....

Quoting hydrus:
The latest GFS has a big surprise for the south..It is 8 to 10 days , but impressive.

I think SE LA will get on it too. Maybe like the 2008 snowstorm, in December specifically.
Hey guys, how are you today.


more snow in the northeast again
cloudy weather in east haven right now!!
Quoting 69. opal92nwf:

Forecasts continue to show temps in the Orlando area well below freezing. Ironically, I am in Orlando right now to experience this. Driving down into Central Florida, I noted the maples and other broadleaf trees fully leafed out, as well as very tender plants like banana palms unscathed without cold damage. If the forecast low of 29 degrees pans out, the vegetation will be in for quite a shock. And as far as I can remember, this area hasn't had a freeze below 30 degrees since the Feb 2010 event. Right now it is dry, not a cloud in the sky, very windy, and surprisingly chilly: reminds me of the conditions the day before other hard freezes in North Florida. This must be quite a rude winter weather awakening for residents of this area who have experienced temps in the 70's and 80's for much of this winter.
This winter has NOT been that warm. Mostly in the 60s during the days and 40s or 50s for low temps across Central Florida. The maples, sweetgums and elms have bloomed early (but some individual trees have not bloomed as of yet) because we have not had a freeze so far and only a couple of nights in the 30s. But all in all it has not been an exceptionally warm winter in Peninsular Florida, just average-ish. I can remember winters in the past where there were lots of 80 degree days and the like, this has not been one of those. And another thing, it has been very rainy this winter, almost but not quite like an El Niño winter. That too contributes to early blooming trees. But you are right that if the predicted hard freeze arrives, a lot of vegetation will be shocked. And as I have said before, those planting Royal Palms and other deeply tropical types of trees are going to lose out in the long run. The first hard freeze will wipe them out.
Hm... down to 66 here already. At this rate we may get into the upper 50s tonight .... shiver me timbers .... lol. ......

Course, lots depends on how quickly the cloud cover drags away.... the longer it stays the slower the drop.

Quoting 102. FLWaterFront:

This winter has NOT been that warm. Mostly in the 60s during the days and 40s or 50s for low temps across Central Florida. The maples, sweetgums and elms have bloomed early (but some individual trees have not bloomed as of yet) because we have not had a freeze so far and only a couple of nights in the 30s. But all in all it has not been an exceptionally warm winter in Peninsular Florida, just average-ish. I can remember winters in the past where there were lots of 80 degree days and the like, this has not been one of those. And another thing, it has been very rainy this winter, almost but not quite like an El Niño winter. That too contributes to early blooming trees. But you are right that if the predicted hard freeze arrives, a lot of vegetation will be shocked. And as I have said before, those planting Royal Palms and other deeply tropical types of trees are going to lose out in the long run. The first hard freeze will wipe them out.
Definitely true about the cooler than recent winters part. I don't think we've had as consistently cool a winter since, I'd guess, the early 1990s ... at least 20 years. Again, what's telling is not just the unusually small number of days so far with highs in the low 80s [a marked contrast to the trend of the last 15+ winters] but also the consistent number of night time lows in the mid - lower 60s. I am sure some recall me commenting on the last two or three winters in the northwest Bahamas being so warm, not because the days were much hotter than average, but because the nighttime temps stayed at 70 degrees, with very minor fluctuations, for much if not most of the winter period [DJF]. January was slightly cooler than recent average, but February has felt like "real" winters of years past for a change.

Quoting Grothar:
Can anyone WUmail me with an explanation of what they are talking about in the new blog. If not, you can give me a call. My number is KLondike 5-435J



The very first phone number we had that I can remember was PRospect 7552. No fifth number, and some of my friend didn't have an exchange, just the four numbers. This would have been about 1953. Do you remember yours? And not the one in NOrway. :-)
Disregard this comment. I am stupid and assumed Marcia was not stacked based on visible observations when it obviously is.
Quoting 102. FLWaterFront:

This winter has NOT been that warm. Mostly in the 60s during the days and 40s or 50s for low temps across Central Florida. The maples, sweetgums and elms have bloomed early (but some individual trees have not bloomed as of yet) because we have not had a freeze so far and only a couple of nights in the 30s. But all in all it has not been an exceptionally warm winter in Peninsular Florida, just average-ish. I can remember winters in the past where there were lots of 80 degree days and the like, this has not been one of those. And another thing, it has been very rainy this winter, almost but not quite like an El Niño winter. That too contributes to early blooming trees. But you are right that if the predicted hard freeze arrives, a lot of vegetation will be shocked. And as I have said before, those planting Royal Palms and other deeply tropical types of trees are going to lose out in the long run. The first hard freeze will wipe them out.


January was very warm until later in the month. We had many days in 80's in January which got the trees blooming extremely early. Since late January temps have been mostly in the low 70's with some 60's but really not that cool as said.
They want apps to replace blog comments because they have even more control over how weather is published to the public. Let me just tell you this. Weather is unleashed. We did it. Get ready!
Quoting 90. aevil2:



Not, apparently, for the coastal plain that Boston sits on :( Looks like we're in for a mostly rain event. MEMA sent out an alert about clearing roofs earlier due to so many roof collapses already. I'm going to have to go out tomorrow and start finding all the catch basins that are buried somewhere in 4' or higher mounds of snow so that we don't drown before the bitter cold that follows this storm freezes it all. *sigh* I wish we were getting another foot or two of snow instead and, really, at this point after 90" of snow, that's really something I didn't imagine I'd be hoping for.
when you say Costal plain rain is the Boston-- South and east or all of Eastern MA because the Merrimack valley of NH/MA is heavily forested and heavily populated (two 100,000+ cities and 4 additional 50k+ cities) so an ice storm would be bad.
Quoting 106. TylerStanfield:


Marcia is not vertically stacked. It appears the Low-level center is beginning to become elongated SW-NE and the system is being sheared from the northeast. Although a small eye has developed, I wouldn't anticipate too much more strengthening before it comes ashore. Lam on the other hand, has continued to become better organized and could intensify further before it makes landfall with the next 36 hours.

You sure Marcia's not stacked? Looks pretty good to me...



Lam is right on the coast, I don't know that it stays over water as long as expected. It is organizing though:

Quoting 110. MAweatherboy1:


You sure Marcia's not stacked? Looks pretty good to me...



Lam is right on the coast, I don't know that it stays over water as long as expected. It is organizing though:



Oh wow. Okay. I was just analyzing low level surface winds and cloud pattern/structure. It was beginning to flatten out on the northeast side and you could begin to see the low-level turning associated with the circulation. Obviously its much better organized then when I last saw it because it was a sheared little cyclone about 4 hours ago. I did note that the eye had began to develop noting that it's possible that it actually is stacked, but it didn't exactly line up off of visible, so I just made an assumption.
I guess I can't lazily just assume based on what my eyes see, and I'll have to investigate more before I make an accusation... Carry on. :P
"The problem is that repeated snowstorms compact the snow already on roofs, gradually turning it into ice, which weighs about eight times more, said Garrick Goldenberg, a professor of structural engineering at Wentworth Institute of Technology. A cubic foot of snow that weighs about 8 pounds becomes a 64-pound cubic foot block of ice, he said."
This is why I hate the media, yes the same volume of ice is 8x heavier than snow, but the volume of stuff on your roof decreases. Snow isn't going to magically get 8X heavier by sitting on your roof. cubic foot of snow becomes a 1/8th of a cubic foot of ice.
Highs and lows so far for February in Orlando. Those who say its been cool then define what you call cool. Lowest is 41 for February in Orlando for a low so far. 10 of the last 17 days have had 70 to 80 degree temps.

1 75 49
2 77 51
3 68 44
4 75 53
5 67 50
6 68 50
7 73 47
8 75 48
9 73 53
10 65 54
11 68 48
12 71 44
13 61 45
14 64 41
15 75 49
16 77 49
17 80 59

Quoting 8. tampabaymatt:

There are plenty of great weather apps that have good radar already out there.


I use Radar Scope Pro, best yet!

Quoting 93. BahaHurican:

Out here they were still using party lines in the Family Islands until the mid 1990s.... one phone instrument per SETTLEMENT, not home .... lol .... it still feels weird to call relatives in Long Island and Mayaguana and not have to "send for them" to come and talk to you at a later time ....


Our group of HPC tech specialists started fishing off Long Island in 1990. I joined in 1993 and have gone every year since. When I started there was one line at the entire resort. No TV or cable either. The isolation was a big plus for us; we wanted to disconnect.

Now they have WiFi and everyone on the trip brings various electronic devices which used to be Verboten... Things change :-(. But I still get no cell signal (wrong carrier). Fine with me.

First year they fished in September. They didn't repeat that mistake again our fishing has been mid May every year since except 2009 when we made a family anniversary thing of it and brought our kids for fourth of July weekend.
Quoting 112. Methurricanes:

"The problem is that repeated snowstorms compact the snow already on roofs, gradually turning it into ice, which weighs about eight times more, said Garrick Goldenberg, a professor of structural engineering at Wentworth Institute of Technology. A cubic foot of snow that weighs about 8 pounds becomes a 64-pound cubic foot block of ice, he said."
This is why I hate the media, yes the same volume of ice is 8x heavier than snow, but the volume of stuff on your roof decreases. Snow isn't going to magically get 8X heavier by sitting on your roof. cubic foot of snow becomes a 1/8th of a cubic foot of ice.


Tell the "professor" about conservation of mass. I expect this from science illiterates, not professors in a technical field. By the way water density is 62 pounds/cubic foot and solid hard ice is significantly less dense than water, about 10%

Triple facepalm :-(

(although I did make the error of using pounds as mass. The pound is a unit of force, the proper units of British density are slugs/cubic foot)
Quoting 82. washingtonian115:

Some film of snow on the ground and the cars..now imagine if this would have went on for hours...Models show the mid-atlantic having more opportunities after Saturday for snow.Some accumulating snow is possible for Saturday before switching to ice and then rain.


My favorite is the ice... Although DOT up here is doing great with the sand and rock. The body shops are not happy, but the windshield places are.
Quoting 69. opal92nwf:

Forecasts continue to show temps in the Orlando area well below freezing. Ironically, I am in Orlando right now to experience this. Driving down into Central Florida, I noted the maples and other broadleaf trees fully leafed out, as well as very tender plants like banana palms unscathed without cold damage. If the forecast low of 29 degrees pans out, the vegetation will be in for quite a shock. And as far as I can remember, this area hasn't had a freeze below 30 degrees since the Feb 2010 event. Right now it is dry, not a cloud in the sky, very windy, and surprisingly chilly: reminds me of the conditions the day before other hard freezes in North Florida. This must be quite a rude winter weather awakening for residents of this area who have experienced temps in the 70's and 80's for much of this winter.


Central Florida is pretty much freeze free.
Until it's not!!

March 3, 1980 (finally dug it up) 25F record low at Orlando. 32F in Miami.
Quoting 69. opal92nwf:

Forecasts continue to show temps in the Orlando area well below freezing. Ironically, I am in Orlando right now to experience this. Driving down into Central Florida, I noted the maples and other broadleaf trees fully leafed out, as well as very tender plants like banana palms unscathed without cold damage. If the forecast low of 29 degrees pans out, the vegetation will be in for quite a shock. And as far as I can remember, this area hasn't had a freeze below 30 degrees since the Feb 2010 event. Right now it is dry, not a cloud in the sky, very windy, and surprisingly chilly: reminds me of the conditions the day before other hard freezes in North Florida. This must be quite a rude winter weather awakening for residents of this area who have experienced temps in the 70's and 80's for much of this winter.


I've very rarely seen native broadleaf trees freeze. In 1983 in New Jersey in Mid May I saw a few nipped. But I heard reports of massive damage to hardwoods in Central and Eastern Tennessee from hard freezes in early April 2007 after a very warm March. I also saw speculation that freeze damage that spring in the upper southeast contributed to reduced evaoptranspiration in May and the first half of June setting the stage for downstream Mid Atlantic drought. Speculation but it seems plausible though not rigorously proven.
Quoting 115. georgevandenberghe:



Our group of HPC tech specialists started fishing off Long Island in 1990. I joined in 1993 and have gone every year since. When I started there was one line at the entire resort. No TV or cable either. The isolation was a big plus for us; we wanted to disconnect.

Now they have WiFi and everyone on the trip brings various electronic devices which used to be Verboten... Things change :-(. But I still get no cell signal (wrong carrier). Fine with me.

First year they fished in September. They didn't repeat that mistake again our fishing has been mid May every year since except 2009 when we made a family anniversary thing of it and brought our kids for fourth of July weekend.
Hey, George .... it's pretty hard to do that disconnect nowadays unless everybody agrees to shut down and surrender the devices. Ironically it makes hurricanes both harder and easier to endure, that connectivity. It was a lot easier to repair one line in the old days .... lol
Quoting 80. TropicalAnalystwx13:


As do the ECMWF and CMC. Here's hoping.

I just want 5 inches (of snow; I'm looking at you aquak).


I would like 5" at one time too. My current PA record is 3". My all time record is 7" in 2003 in TN. The North is really disappointing. Maybe we'll get tornadoes in the spring....if it ever warms up.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Out here they were still using party lines in the Family Islands until the mid 1990s.... one phone instrument per SETTLEMENT, not home .... lol .... it still feels weird to call relatives in Long Island and Mayaguana and not have to "send for them" to come and talk to you at a later time ....
Until 2005, a town called Rachel, Nevada had a single pay phone at the one bar in town, The Little A'Le'Inn. A funny name but it makes sense when you know this is the closest town to the infamous Area 51. There are only about 50 people in town but there used to be about 300 back in the 80's when a tungsten mine was still running. That closed down in 1988 and almost everyone left. The phone company disconnected the lines except for that one pay phone. Verizon built a cell tower in 2007 to cover the stretch of NV Highway 375, now officially the Extraterrestrial Highway, and everyone still in town sent off for a cell phone. Now even the one pay phone is gone and cell phones are the only means of communications.

I used to camp at the Queen City Summit a lot back then. You can set up anywhere you want and, at nearly 7,000 feet. it's one of the coolest spots in the great Nevada desert in the summer. It also has a good view into Area 51 as well as about the darkest night skies in the country. No man made RF noise either, so it was a great place to set up a temporary antenna and work contacts all over the world. I happened to be there when they were still testing what became known as the stealth fighter. I had no idea what it was but it looked pretty cool.

But I digress... :-)
Quoting 122. sar2401:

Until 2005, a town called Rachel, Nevada had a single pay phone at the one bar in town, The Little A'Le'Inn. A funny name but it makes sense when you know this is the closest town to the infamous Area 51. There are only about 50 people in town but there used to be about 300 back in the 80's when a tungsten mine was still running. That closed down in 1988 and almost everyone left. The phone company disconnected the lines except for that one pay phone. Verizon built a cell tower in 2007 to cover the stretch of NV Highway 375, now officially the Extraterrestrial Highway, and everyone still in town sent off for a cell phone. Now even the one pay phone is gone and cell phones are the only means of communications.

I used to camp at the Queen City Summit a lot back then. You can set up anywhere you want and, at nearly 7,000 feet. it's one of the coolest spots in the great Nevada desert in the summer. It also has a good view into Area 51 as well as about the darkest night skies in the country. No man made RF noise either, so it was a great place to set up a temporary antenna and work contacts all over the world. I happened to be there when they were still testing what became known as the stealth fighter. I had no idea what it was but it looked pretty cool.

But I digress... :-)


To digress further, the near wipeout of pay phones in the U.S. worries me in case my own cell dies. My kids got cell phones two years earlier than they would have otherwise because of the lack of payphones to call home.
Quoting 112. Methurricanes:

"The problem is that repeated snowstorms compact the snow already on roofs, gradually turning it into ice, which weighs about eight times more, said Garrick Goldenberg, a professor of structural engineering at Wentworth Institute of Technology. A cubic foot of snow that weighs about 8 pounds becomes a 64-pound cubic foot block of ice, he said."
This is why I hate the media, yes the same volume of ice is 8x heavier than snow, but the volume of stuff on your roof decreases. Snow isn't going to magically get 8X heavier by sitting on your roof. cubic foot of snow becomes a 1/8th of a cubic foot of ice.


Ah, this is like the age old question: Which is heavier? A pound of feathers or a pound of gold?
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:

Highs and lows so far for February in Orlando. Those who say its been cool then define what you call cool. Lowest is 41 for February in Orlando for a low so far. 10 of the last 17 days have had 70 to 80 degree temps.

1 75 49
2 77 51
3 68 44
4 75 53
5 67 50
6 68 50
7 73 47
8 75 48
9 73 53
10 65 54
11 68 48
12 71 44
13 61 45
14 64 41
15 75 49
16 77 49
17 80 59


My friends with frozen pipes would not call this cool. May be more on Friday BTW
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

You sure Marcia's not stacked? Looks pretty good to me...



Lam is right on the coast, I don't know that it stays over water as long as expected. It is organizing though:

I knew a Marcia in high school, and she was definitely stacked....
Quoting 122. sar2401:

Until 2005, a town called Rachel, Nevada had a single pay phone at the one bar in town, The Little A'Le'Inn. A funny name but it makes sense when you know this is the closest town to the infamous Area 51. There are only about 50 people in town but there used to be about 300 back in the 80's when a tungsten mine was still running. That closed down in 1988 and almost everyone left. The phone company disconnected the lines except for that one pay phone. Verizon built a cell tower in 2007 to cover the stretch of NV Highway 375, now officially the Extraterrestrial Highway, and everyone still in town sent off for a cell phone. Now even the one pay phone is gone and cell phones are the only means of communications.

I used to camp at the Queen City Summit a lot back then. You can set up anywhere you want and, at nearly 7,000 feet. it's one of the coolest spots in the great Nevada desert in the summer. It also has a good view into Area 51 as well as about the darkest night skies in the country. No man made RF noise either, so it was a great place to set up a temporary antenna and work contacts all over the world. I happened to be there when they were still testing what became known as the stealth fighter. I had no idea what it was but it looked pretty cool.

But I digress... :-)
:o) ... Nothing like a good digression to keep you loose and limber on a cold winter's night .... my dad used to listen to Cincinnati radio in Mayaguana at night as a boy .... That's why I grew up a Reds fan ... lol. ... but now it's hard to hear even ZNS [local radio] at night. The radiosphere is not at all as empty as it once was ....
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:

Highs and lows so far for February in Orlando. Those who say its been cool then define what you call cool. Lowest is 41 for February in Orlando for a low so far. 10 of the last 17 days have had 70 to 80 degree temps.

1 75 49
2 77 51
3 68 44
4 75 53
5 67 50
6 68 50
7 73 47
8 75 48
9 73 53
10 65 54
11 68 48
12 71 44
13 61 45
14 64 41
15 75 49
16 77 49
17 80 59
Well, you have had it warmer in East Central Florida than we have in West Central Florida. No way was it close to 80 degrees here yesterday. Stayed in the 60s because the rains started early in the AM. And we have not had that many days in the 70s either, just lots of days in the mid to upper 60s. Last winter was warmer here I do believe. And that was weird because it was so cold in the Northern US, particularly in the Upper Midwest. But all that cold air mostly stayed up there last year and for the past 4 years or so. Looks like that is now finally changing.
Quoting 123. georgevandenberghe:



To digress further, the near wipeout of pay phones in the U.S. worries me in case my own cell dies. My kids got cell phones two years earlier than they would have otherwise because of the lack of payphones to call home.



My parents did not bend. No phone until you get a HS diploma. Of course, even without pay phones, you just borrow a cell from someone else. No biggie.

I would prefer landlines to stay around...mainly for emergency purposes. A cell phone is useless in a disaster, the towers are clogged with calls and messages.
Quoting 95. BahaHurican:

ONe of my friends finally gave up an I3??? due to download issues - and memory size. The phone itself still works fine. [shrugs] I finally changed my own cell after several years strictly because of memory size issues. But I still miss the old one. I'm not sure having a new WunderApp will be enough to make me glad I changed over, instead of just "okay" .... especially since they don't have the Android version ready yet....


My cellphone makes and receives calls and texts. It is not a smartphone. I am hanging onto it till it completely dies.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Ah, this is like the age old question: Which is heavier? A pound of feathers or a pound of gold?
Que up about 50 Monty Python YouTube videos in 3...2...1... :-)
Quoting 128. FLWaterFront:

Well, you have had it warmer in East Central Florida than we have in West Central Florida. No way was it close to 80 degrees here yesterday. Stayed in the 60s because the rains started early in the AM. And we have not had that many days in the 70s either, just lots of days in the mid to upper 60s. Last winter was warmer here I do believe. And that was weird because it was so cold in the Northern US, particularly in the Upper Midwest. But all that cold air mostly stayed up there last year and for the past 4 years or so. Looks like that is now finally changing.


My bad I thought you lived near me. Sorry about that but that is strange it is always so much cooler across western FL.
Quoting 105. sar2401:

The very first phone number we had that I can remember was PRospect 7552. No fifth number, and some of my friend didn't have an exchange, just the four numbers. This would have been about 1953. Do you remember yours? And not the one in NOrway. :-)


Yes. It was "2"
NAEFS box and whiskers diagram is calling for a median High of 5 C (41 F) for Orlando tomorrow with the max High of 10 C (50 F).

Quoting 128. FLWaterFront:

Well, you have had it warmer in East Central Florida than we have in West Central Florida. No way was it close to 80 degrees here yesterday. Stayed in the 60s because the rains started early in the AM. And we have not had that many days in the 70s either, just lots of days in the mid to upper 60s. Last winter was warmer here I do believe. And that was weird because it was so cold in the Northern US, particularly in the Upper Midwest. But all that cold air mostly stayed up there last year and for the past 4 years or so. Looks like that is now finally changing.


Speaking of changing the Japanese model destroys the North Atlantic warm pool while at the sametime has El-Nino albeit weak this Fall. This could mean a very cold and stormy eastern US next Winter kinda like what is happening now.
Quoting 135. GTstormChaserCaleb:

NAEFS box and whiskers diagram is calling for a median High of 5 C (41 F) for Orlando tomorrow with the max High of 10 C (50 F).




I bet Orlando officially stays above freezing tomorrow night.
A howling wind after the snow 'squall' which was more like a snow shower. At most 1/4" which is blowing around outside. Wind gusted into the 40s during and immediately after the 'squall' but it has diminished although it is still unpleasant. Not too cold yet, falling through lower 20s. But it will be.
Caleb I doubt it will be that cold in Orlando with full late February sun. I'll be surprised if it stays below 50 there.
Quoting BahaHurican:
:o) ... Nothing like a good digression to keep you loose and limber on a cold winter's night .... my dad used to listen to Cincinnati radio in Mayaguana at night as a boy .... That's why I grew up a Reds fan ... lol. ... but now it's hard to hear even ZNS [local radio] at night. The radiosphere is not at all as empty as it once was ....
Ah, yes, WLW, the Cincinnati powerhouse. That and a few others are clear channel 50,000 watt stations that you could count on hearing almost anywhere in the county on a winter night, and even a couple of foreign countries. :-) WLW has done the same thing as most other AM stations. They've switched to digital and internet streaming and degraded their analog signal as a result. I don't think I've even heard WLW down here in the past five years, and I'm closer that you. The whole concept in the FCC granting a station clear channel status and 50,000 watt authorization was so rural dwellers, especially farmers, could get news and market reports during the night, when they were more likely to be near those big glow in the dark radios. You can still tune into 880 KHz at 4:30 in the morning and hear market reports on KRVN radio. Of course, farmers no longer need this since they can see and hear anything a city dweller does, but it's still comforting in a strange sort of way to get that signal early in the morning and hear soybean prices.
I remember when AT&T raised the price on payphones from a dime to a quarter when I was in middle school and it was a big national story.
Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:



My bad I thought you lived near me. Sorry about that but that is strange it is always so much cooler across western FL.
I think the prevailing westerly wind and the cooler shelf water of the Gulf has a lot to do with that. Local TV mets always talk about how it will be a lot warmer in interior zones than in the immediate Tampa Bay area because the areas closer to the water will be tempered by the sea breeze. Right now the near-shore Gulf waters here are about 58-60F but that will change.. fast... over the next two days and the water temps might drop to 52 or 53. Even on days when Orlando or Lakeland can reach 75 to 80 or higher in the winter, we here usually won't even make it to 70.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes. It was "2"
So I take it we can guess who had "1" then. :-)
Thought we might get some cold, but now the forecast is calling for low of -13. However, it is negative 12 now with clear skys. Even a negative 20 wouldn't be too bad if it remains calm. I think though that the wind will shift around and pick up out of the south. That might bring us a little snow.

Winter finally arrived, but no record breaker, with longer days, I am hoping to take a day of next week and hike a little at Maplewood State park in Western Minnisota. Christmas was so warm that the ground wasn't frozen and it would have been muddy, so for Christmas we drove 5 hours from Fargo to Jay Cook state park just outside Duluth for some nice winter camping. Maplewood is only 45 minutes so no overnight stay required.

Just hope that old man winter doesn't decide that he got here late so he will stay late and keep snowing on us until May.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 140. BaltimoreBrian:

Caleb I doubt it will be that cold in Orlando with full late February sun. I'll be surprised if it stays below 50 there.


Forecast is for 49, I'd wager 53. I'll keep you posted. :)
Quoting 145. Qazulight:

Thought we might get some cold, but now the forecast is calling for low of -13. However, it is negative 12 now with clear skys. Even a negative 20 wouldn't be too bad if it remains calm. I think though that the wind will shift around and pick up out of the south. That might bring us a little snow.

Winter finally arrived, but no record breaker, with longer days, I am hoping to take a day of next week and hike a little at Maplewood State park in Western Minnisota. Christmas was so warm that the ground wasn't frozen and it would have been muddy, so for Christmas we drove 5 hours from Fargo to Jay Cook state park just outside Duluth for some nice winter camping. Maplewood is only 45 minutes so no overnight stay required.

Just hope that old man winter doesn't decide that he got here late so he will stay late and keep snowing on us until May.

Cheers
Qazulight
just till april 15th after that its done
Quoting 142. BaltimoreBrian:

I remember when AT&T raised the price on payphones from a dime to a quarter when I was in middle school and it was a big national story.
50 cents now for a pay phone
0Z HRRR model drops Orlando to 34 tomorrow night. This model has been dead on this year so that is why I think temps may not go as low as so many think.

Quoting 145. Qazulight:

Thought we might get some cold, but now the forecast is calling for low of -13. However, it is negative 12 now with clear skys. Even a negative 20 wouldn't be too bad if it remains calm. I think though that the wind will shift around and pick up out of the south. That might bring us a little snow.

Winter finally arrived, but no record breaker, with longer days, I am hoping to take a day of next week and hike a little at Maplewood State park in Western Minnisota. Christmas was so warm that the ground wasn't frozen and it would have been muddy, so for Christmas we drove 5 hours from Fargo to Jay Cook state park just outside Duluth for some nice winter camping. Maplewood is only 45 minutes so no overnight stay required.

Just hope that old man winter doesn't decide that he got here late so he will stay late and keep snowing on us until May.

Cheers
Qazulight
This post, more so than any other I can remember, demonstrates clearly how weather conditions and climate are affected by one's personal perspective and experience.

You could not pay me enough to go hiking in a state park in Minnesota in February. In July, sure or April maybe but in the winter months, no. And "nice winter camping" at Christmas near Duluth? I can only chuckle at the thought of that. But perhaps if I had been born and raised in Fargo, I dunno.. maybe. Then again I was born and raised in a climate just a little less cold in the winter than is typical in Minnesota and would never have thought of pitching a tent anywhere within a thousand miles of there in December. But that part is just me, I guess. It probably also has something to do with why I live in a drastically different climate today.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I remember when AT&T raised the price on payphones from a dime to a quarter when I was in middle school and it was a big national story.
Have you seen an operative payphone lately? I've seen the little booths still up but never with a phone. You'll now be able to explain to your grandkids the concept of this thing called a payphone. :-)
Quoting 146. Naga5000:



Forecast is for 49, I'd wager 53. I'll keep you posted. :)


WRF model has 33 for Downtown Orlando, 34 at Orlando International, and Longwood at 32 tomorrow night and if that's as low as we go then there will almost no damage to plants as duration will be minimal and temps marginal. Really doesn't seem a big deal infact Citrus growers are happy for the cold night ahead to sweeten their crops as it has been way to mild this Winter.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GLADES, HENDRY,
COLLIER, INLAND BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT...

...FREEZE WATCH FOR GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND COLLIER, AND INLAND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.UPDATE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING
IN THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS EVENING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO WHERE IT IS IN
THE MID 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE LOWS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY COUPLE OF DEGREES TO MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE METRO AREAS
FOR TONIGHT.

THE WINDS HAVE ALSO FALLEN DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS AND 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND
CHILL READINGS TO FALL BELOW 35 DEGREES FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SEEING WIND CHILL READINGS FALLING DOWN TO
35 TO 40 DEGREES AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GLADES...HENDRY...
COLLIER...INLAND BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.
Memories :-)

Link

At that time, Gonzalo was a 75MPH hurricane.
Quoting 154. Grothar:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GLADES, HENDRY,
COLLIER, INLAND BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT...

...FREEZE WATCH FOR GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND COLLIER, AND INLAND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.UPDATE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING
IN THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS EVENING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO WHERE IT IS IN
THE MID 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 2 TO 3 DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE LOWS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY COUPLE OF DEGREES TO MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE METRO AREAS
FOR TONIGHT.

THE WINDS HAVE ALSO FALLEN DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS AND 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND
CHILL READINGS TO FALL BELOW 35 DEGREES FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SEEING WIND CHILL READINGS FALLING DOWN TO
35 TO 40 DEGREES AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THEREFORE...THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GLADES...HENDRY...
COLLIER...INLAND BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT.

gonna need a sweater

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 2 sec ago


Mostly Cloudy

Mostly Cloudy


9.0 °F

Feels Like -1 °F







N

6.0

Wind from NW
Gusts 7.4 mph
Wednesday 18 February 2015
Extreme Cold Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Temperatures are expected to drop to near or below minus 20 Celsius overnight. The cold temperatures will combine with strong northwesterly winds to produce wind chill values near or below minus 30 by Thursday morning. Little improvement is expected through the day on Thursday, with daytime highs only a few degrees higher than the overnight low temperatures, with stiff northwesterly winds adding to the biting cold and resulting in yet another frigid day.

Very cold wind chill values are likely to persist through Friday, then improve somewhat on Saturday.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You lose heat faster when you're wet.

Avoid alcohol.
- Consuming alcohol before you go out in the cold may increase your risk of hypothermia because it increases blood flow to the extremities of the body. You may actually feel warm even though you are losing heat.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
Samething on the NAM showing temps near or just above freezing across Orlando metro. Infact it maybe colder across interior SW FL than here in E C FL. This really as I said is no big deal as temps would have to drop into the mid to upper 20's to cause problems and that doesn't seem to be the case.

NAM
Oh the horror





Quoting 142. BaltimoreBrian:

I remember when AT&T raised the price on payphones from a dime to a quarter when I was in middle school and it was a big national story.

I remember as well. Couldn't leave the house without a dime in your pocket - that was the golden rule. The increase was an outrage! :)

Quoting 122. sar2401:

Until 2005, a town called Rachel, Nevada had a single pay phone at the one bar in town, The Little A'Le'Inn. A funny name but it makes sense when you know this is the closest town to the infamous Area 51. There are only about 50 people in town but there used to be about 300 back in the 80's when a tungsten mine was still running. That closed down in 1988 and almost everyone left. The phone company disconnected the lines except for that one pay phone. Verizon built a cell tower in 2007 to cover the stretch of NV Highway 375, now officially the Extraterrestrial Highway, and everyone still in town sent off for a cell phone. Now even the one pay phone is gone and cell phones are the only means of communications.

I used to camp at the Queen City Summit a lot back then. You can set up anywhere you want and, at nearly 7,000 feet. it's one of the coolest spots in the great Nevada desert in the summer. It also has a good view into Area 51 as well as about the darkest night skies in the country. No man made RF noise either, so it was a great place to set up a temporary antenna and work contacts all over the world. I happened to be there when they were still testing what became known as the stealth fighter. I had no idea what it was but it looked pretty cool.

But I digress... :-)

Mink, Louisiana - got it's first landline service in 2005.
Quoting Naga5000:


Forecast is for 49, I'd wager 53. I'll keep you posted. :)
OK, I'll take 52 then for a buck. :-) Just went out to check the greenhouse because it's down to 33 and so was the greenhouse. One of the heaters was off. My fiance was working inside earlier today and she turned the heater off because she got hot. Of course, the heater wasn't actually running then, greenhouses just get hot. We just had a short discussion on the subject. I don't really know how to explain it, but the air outside "feels" cold. The temperature's not bad yet but this is clearly not the chilly kind of air, it's the Cleveland kind of cold air. It makes my nose run as soon as I step outside. I'm pretty good at remembering weather for this date since it has some significance to me and it has never been this cold in my 10 years here. I'm still lucky not to be in a place where my car is buried in a snow drift, but this is not why I moved to south Alabama.
First I would have to have kids sar ;) There's a pay phone in the inner harbor but that's the only one I know of.
Quoting 161. wxgeek723:

Oh the horror

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
First I would have to have kids sar ;) There's a pay phone in the inner harbor but that's the only one I know of.
Hey, there's still this thing called adoption. One never knows in today's world. There aren't any payphones around here at all. I don't know when the last one left. Of course, I don't often go in search of one, so there may be one hiding somewhere, but you sure don't see much of them as another icon passes way.
Quoting 152. sar2401:

Have you seen an operative payphone lately? I've seen the little booths still up but never with a phone. You'll now be able to explain to your grandkids the concept of this thing called a payphone. :-)

This video is a must-see. Couldn't believe it when I first saw it :)

Kids React to Rotary Phones
Here is the latest GFS again temps right at or just above freezing in orlando. Really surprised to see temps barely at freezing across most of FL due to temps only near 50 tomorrow. Seems like a glancing blow of cold then poof its 80 again.



Orlando you blink then its 80 again. This is why so many are sick around here.
Quoting 153. StormTrackerScott:



WRF model has 33 for Downtown Orlando, 34 at Orlando International, and Longwood at 32 tomorrow night and if that's as low as we go then there will almost no damage to plants as duration will be minimal and temps marginal. Really doesn't seem a big deal infact Citrus growers are happy for the cold night ahead to sweeten their crops as it has been way to mild this Winter.

The forecasts I've been looking at show 28-29 deg which is pretty substantial for this otherwise easy winter. Yes that won't cause any bad damage to citrus, but plants like banana palms, elephant ears, flowering annuals could get pretty messed up. I've noticed a lot of these used extensively.

Also, I've noticed an abundance of very tropical plants being grown here like Norfolk Island pine and rubber plants. When this area gets another mid 20's or lower freeze in the very near future, all these plants they have gotten away with growing will be thinned out.
Quoting 169. opal92nwf:


The forecasts I've been looking at show 28-29 deg which is pretty substantial for this otherwise easy winter. Yes that won't cause any bad damage to citrus, but plants like banana palms, elephant ears, flowering annuals could get pretty messed up. I've noticed a lot of these used extensively.

Also, I've noticed an abundance of very tropical plants being grown here like Norfolk Island pine and rubber plants. When this area gets another mid 20's or lower freeze in the very near future, all these plants they have gotten away with growing will be thinned out.


It's barely 28 to 29 on the models across N FL so I would expect exactly like the Short Range models indicate as they have been money this year which they show Orlando only 33 to 34. Now rural areas outside of town could briefly hit 28 or 29 but again overall duration looks minimal and looks like no big deal. Infact these temps would be close to our Halloween weekend lows which those lows were the coldest its been so far this Fall/Winter Season. Yes Halloween weekend was the coldest its been so far hard to believe.
Quoting 168. StormTrackerScott:

Here is the latest GFS again temps right at or just above freezing in orlando. Really surprised to see temps barely at freezing across most of FL due to temps only near 50 tomorrow. Seems like a glancing blow of cold then poof its 80 again.



Orlando you blink then its 80 again. This is why so many are sick around here.

I wonder how well these models are factoring in the deep snow pack in the North and its current extent further south than usual? I know climatology plays a big role in these computer modeling estimates but the question is how much do other, more variable factors influence the models? This is something I don't know but I'm sure that others here are more knowledgeable about it.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Mink, Louisiana - got it's first landline service in 2005.
There are probably a lot of isolated little burgs that finally got land line service just in time for cell phones to arrive and take over. I never use my home phone at all. I have a better long distance program on the cell and it was my home phone when I spent so much time on the road or sailing. It's funny when I hear it ring because I know it has to be some kind of sales call. I keep it because, when it really hits the fan, none of my fancy gadgets will work, but the land line probably will. It's also the only phone I can be sure will show my address to 911 when I call in gasping with the "Big One". You think about such things as your age advances. :-)
My grandfather was a part of the Florida Space Growers citrus organization in the 80's and 90's. With all this talk about the cold happening now in FL, he was telling me, "look up the freeze of 1985." I read about this before, but I listened to him talk about how not only did it get down into the teens in areas around Orlando, but it stayed below freezing for 3 days. That duration of below freezing temps plays a big part in damage to the tender vegetation. So many citrus were a total loss up here. I looked up the records, and for Orlando proper, it said the all time low was the Jan? 1985 event of 18 degrees.
12P Lam. Click pic for loop.


Quoting 169. opal92nwf:

....When this area gets another mid 20's or lower freeze in the very near future, all these plants they have gotten away with growing will be thinned out.

In the mean time I'll be enjoying the foot long papayas coming off the 15' tall tree planted back in 2011.
Quoting 171. FLWaterFront:

I wonder how well these models are factoring in the deep snow pack in the North and its current extent further south than usual? I know climatology plays a big role in these computer modeling estimates but the question is how much do other, more variable factors influence the models? This is something I don't know but I'm sure that others here are more knowledgeable about it.


Well if you notice the deepest of the cold is being aimed at the Mid Atlantic which is why these High Resolution Models are showing temps 28 to 34 statewide with really not much variation form N FL to S FL which tells me we are getting more less a glancing blow.

Quoting 173. opal92nwf:

My grandfather was a part of the Florida Space Growers citrus organization in the 80's and 90's. With all this talk about the cold happening now in FL, he was telling me, "look up the freeze of 1985." I read about this before, but I listened to him talk about how not only did it get down into the teens in areas around Orlando, but it stayed below freezing for 3 days. That duration of below freezing temps plays a big part in damage to the tender vegetation. So many citrus were a total loss up here. I looked up the records, and for Orlando proper, it said the all time low was the Jan? 1985 event of 18 degrees.


People are making to much of a big deal of this when just this past Halloween we hit 34 here in Longwood and that's the coldest we have been this season which is odd because it was in the 90's just before that so makes me wonder if this is a result of a overall pattern change taking place across the US to make way for Spring.
I'm pretty good at remembering weather for this date since it has some significance to me

Almost forgot...Happy Birthday, sar! Hope it was a good one.
Quoting 170. StormTrackerScott:



It's barely 28 to 29 on the models across N FL so I would expect exactly like the Short Range models indicate as they have been money this year which they show Orlando only 33 to 34. Now rural areas outside of town could briefly hit 28 or 29 but again overall duration looks minimal and looks like no big deal. Infact these temps would be close to our Halloween weekend lows which those lows were the coldest its been so far this Fall/Winter Season. Yes Halloween weekend was the coldest its been so far hard to believe.

Yeah, this really is no big deal as far as a regular freeze for this part of Florida in February. My family always used to visit Disney in February, and despite how cold this current event compares to the '14-'15 winter so far, to me it feels like how it always felt on our Disney trips around 10+ years ago.
Quoting 145. Qazulight:

Thought we might get some cold, but now the forecast is calling for low of -13. However, it is negative 12 now with clear skys. Even a negative 20 wouldn't be too bad if it remains calm. I think though that the wind will shift around and pick up out of the south. That might bring us a little snow.

Winter finally arrived, but no record breaker, with longer days, I am hoping to take a day of next week and hike a little at Maplewood State park in Western Minnisota. Christmas was so warm that the ground wasn't frozen and it would have been muddy, so for Christmas we drove 5 hours from Fargo to Jay Cook state park just outside Duluth for some nice winter camping. Maplewood is only 45 minutes so no overnight stay required.

Just hope that old man winter doesn't decide that he got here late so he will stay late and keep snowing on us until May.

Cheers
Qazulight


I've been enjoying our mild winter myself. I spent Christmas day trout fishing in Whitewater state park, down by Rochester. It was pushing 40, and I was glad to be out on such a pleasant day - the FL folks always amuse me with their 'cold weather' =D
I even got out fishing in late January, caught the beast pictured below in a 6 foot wide spring creek - on a balmy 38 degree day. How I wish there was another one of those days in the 10 day forecast...
opal~ I remember that freeze. Citrus recovered til 2004 and '05..despite another bad freeze late '80s or early 90s. til those hurricanes brought in citrus greening. Industry has really been struggling here since.
Quoting 178. opal92nwf:


Yeah, this really is no big deal as far as a regular freeze for this part of Florida in February. My family always used to visit Disney in February, and despite how cold this current event compares to the '14-'15 winter so far, to me it feels like how it always felt on our Disney trips around 10+ years ago.


Cold snaps across this part of FL have been rare the last several years which is why I think so many are hyping this cold which really isn't that big a deal to get temps 30 to 34 in Mid February as this would be only 4 days past what is normally our average last freeze date in Orlando.
Decent snow shower over Decatur in the Atlanta metro, snowing decently where I am at as well. The snowfall is also helping temps drop rapidly, already at 22F at PDK (dewpoint is 11F). Will be interesting to see how cold it will get in the morning.
Quoting 119. georgevandenberghe:



I've very rarely seen native broadleaf trees freeze. In 1983 in New Jersey in Mid May I saw a few nipped. But I heard reports of massive damage to hardwoods in Central and Eastern Tennessee from hard freezes in early April 2007 after a very warm March. I also saw speculation that freeze damage that spring in the upper southeast contributed to reduced evaoptranspiration in May and the first half of June setting the stage for downstream Mid Atlantic drought. Speculation but it seems plausible though not rigorously proven.


Yeah, I lived near St. Louis for the spring of 2007 with everything leafing out and blooming happily in late March (usually it does it in Mid-April). I visited Florida for a period of time right when the cold weather hit back home. On the drive back north, I was like "Why do these trees have black leaves???" It got worse and worse the farther we got north and by the time I was home, at least 75% of the tree's leaves were zapped. It literally took another 3/4 to 1 month for them to grow back. The only tree's leaves that stand out to me that withstood sub freezing temps were the crabapples and Bradford pears.
Quoting 173. opal92nwf:

My grandfather was a part of the Florida Space Growers citrus organization in the 80's and 90's. With all this talk about the cold happening now in FL, he was telling me, "look up the freeze of 1985." I read about this before, but I listened to him talk about how not only did it get down into the teens in areas around Orlando, but it stayed below freezing for 3 days. That duration of below freezing temps plays a big part in damage to the tender vegetation. So many citrus were a total loss up here. I looked up the records, and for Orlando proper, it said the all time low was the Jan? 1985 event of 18 degrees.
I remember the '85 freeze quite well. Tallahassee dropped to 6F and Tampa dropped to 21 one of those nights, with the high that same day of 35F. That 35F was under a brilliantly sunny sky, btw. It got colder at night though in the Christmas freezes of '83 and '89, when the low temp in Tampa was 19F on both occasions. In 1989, the daytime high was below freezing over most of the Tampa Bay area under cloudy skies and it snowed for several hours that night, in the form of intermittent snow showers. Rolling blackouts made the experience quite an adventure. In North Florida, I-75 was closed from Lake City to somewhere in South Georgia as it was covered by up to three inches of snow and ice.

The problem with the electric power was that it happened right at Christmas, with Christmas lights strung up all over the place, Christmas dinners in countless ovens and electric heat pumps going full blast all day and all night. Put all that together and there was not enough electricity available to handle it all.
Quoting 92. Naga5000:



Actually, it has been mostly in the 70's a 60's here in Orlando proper this winter. With the exception of one 80+ degree day in Jan and five in December. That being said, tomorrow's forecast high of 49 and the first freeze will be a bit harsh in contrast, but I doubt we will be below freezing long enough to do any real damage. Enjoy your stay here, hitting the theme parks or visiting for another reason?

I'm at a Bible conference which normally is held at a church in downtown Orlando, but there's renovations going on there now so it's being held at the Coronado Resort at Disney! I've never been to this hotel, and I think it is really awesome. What wows me the most is how well the theming is done with the American colonial Spanish architecture and plantings and trees mimicking what you would find in somewhere like California- lots of Bird of Paradise, Mexican Fan Palm, agaves, yuccas, grasses. Being here the next few days, I guess I'll get to see how some of the vegetation does in this cold snap.
13P Marcia

Overperforming snow event here. Forecast was for scattered flurries with no accumulation; I just measured in 5 different locations 1.4" of snow. The roads are wet, and with temperatures plummeting as the arctic front passes, it's safe to say I can sleep in tomorrow. ;)
Quoting 147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just till april 15th after that its done


Promise?
I'll say ~55kts and maybe more at landfall.
Please create an Android version ASAP. Thank you.
Quoting 179. evilpenguinshan:



I've been enjoying our mild winter myself. I spent Christmas day trout fishing in Whitewater state park, down by Rochester. It was pushing 40, and I was glad to be out on such a pleasant day - the FL folks always amuse me with their 'cold weather' =D
I even got out fishing in late January, caught the beast pictured below in a 6 foot wide spring creek - on a balmy 38 degree day. How I wish there was another one of those days in the 10 day forecast...



I am not much of a fisherman, but if I were, I would do it like they do up here. Drive out in the middle of the lake with the special RV they call a fish hut, flip the wheels to lower it I to position, drill a hole in the ice, drop your line in and kick back on the couch with a cup of coffee.
Quoting LAbonbon:

This video is a must-see. Couldn't believe it when I first saw it :)

Kids React to Rotary Phones
That's hilarious, especially when asks them how they would send a text message. I liked the one girl when she came to the sudden realization that you had to talk to someone on one of those things. :-)
Quoting cdoremus:
Please create an Android version ASAP. Thank you.
Just access the web site on your phone. It works great if you use the classic version (classic,wunderground.com) and there's no new strange and unusual bunch of icons to deal with.
Quoting 191. Qazulight:



I am not much of a fisherman, but if I were, I would do it like they do up here. Drive out in the middle of the lake with the special RV they call a fish hut, flip the wheels to lower it I to position, drill a hole in the ice, drop your line in and kick back on the couch with a cup of coffee.


Hahaha I know what you mean. I really just do stream trout nowadays (the spring water is 50 degrees year round, which is great in July and in January), but I've never been much for ice-fishing...I can drink beer on my couch without freezing my butt off!
Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:



Well if you notice the deepest of the cold is being aimed at the Mid Atlantic which is why these High Resolution Models are showing temps 28 to 34 statewide with really not much variation form N FL to S FL which tells me we are getting more less a glancing blow.


That seems to be the issue these past many years here in Florida.. These arctic blasts always seem to find a way to somehow go more east than south. It used to be that at least half of them (or so it seems to me with my memory) would plunge straight south out of the arctic region. I remember that in the Christmas deep freeze of 1989, meteorologists were marveling at how the cold front was still strong as it was crossing the border into Honduras, which is quite remarkable when you think about it. These days it seems as if the arctic air is deep and punishing in the Northern US but then it aims more for the mid-Atlantic region on its exit from the continent.

Sometimes a massive arctic blast will aim straight south out of the western part of the continent and dig deep into Texas and Mexico, but than a stubborn Atlantic high pressure dome will steer that arctic cold quickly off the the NE, missing Florida and the Deep South altogether. Florida fruit and vegetable growers really should be pleased at these consistent outcomes because they are being spared from devastating crop losses, such as those which occurred in decades past.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Overperforming snow event here. Forecast was for scattered flurries with no accumulation; I just measured in 5 different locations 1.4" of snow. The roads are wet, and with temperatures plummeting as the arctic front passes, it's safe to say I can sleep in tomorrow. ;)
You really lucked out. On radar, at least, that is about the smallest snow "storm" I've ever seen. I would have guessed you were getting almost nothing.
197. flsky
As a Floridian, I'm glad they're turning right. I hate the cold.
Quoting 195. FLWaterFront:

That seems to be the issue these past many years here in Florida.. These arctic blasts always seem to find a way to somehow go more east than south. It used to be that at least half of them (or so it seems to me with my memory) would plunge straight south out of the arctic region. I remember that in the Christmas deep freeze of 1989, meteorologists were marveling at how the cold front was still strong as it was crossing the border into Honduras, which is quite remarkable when you think about it. These days it seems as if the arctic air is deep and punishing in the Northern US but then it aims more for the mid-Atlantic region on its exit from the continent.

Sometimes a massive arctic blast will aim straight south out of the western part of the continent and dig deep into Texas and Mexico, but than a stubborn Atlantic high pressure dome will steer that arctic cold quickly off the the NE, missing Florida and the Deep South altogether. Florida fruit and vegetable growers really should be pleased at these consistent outcomes because they are being spared from devastating crop losses, such as those which occurred in decades past.
Hmmm...I wonder if the cold tonight is going to verify. It's still 33 here now and it was already 29 last night at the same time. The wind kicked up again and the temperature went from 33 to 35 in a half hour. The winds have died down and now it's back to 33. With a combination of the wind, which should continue in fits and starts, and what looks like some better mixing than forecast, we might have a chance to stay in the 20's instead of slipping into the teens. Of course, the dewpoint is 9 degrees, so I don't really have much hope of that.
Quoting 180. Skyepony:

opal~ I remember that freeze. Citrus recovered til 2004 and '05..despite another bad freeze late '80s or early 90s. til those hurricanes brought in citrus greening. Industry has really been struggling here since.

I did a presentation on citrus greening and canker in my AP Biology class in high school. Doing a project like that is very helpful in getting you to really understand the subject.
Quoting evilpenguinshan:


I've been enjoying our mild winter myself. I spent Christmas day trout fishing in Whitewater state park, down by Rochester. It was pushing 40, and I was glad to be out on such a pleasant day - the FL folks always amuse me with their 'cold weather' =D
I even got out fishing in late January, caught the beast pictured below in a 6 foot wide spring creek - on a balmy 38 degree day. How I wish there was another one of those days in the 10 day forecast...
Dang! That's a real fish, not a Photoshop job? It's a real looker. Did you have it mounted?
Quoting 194. evilpenguinshan:



Hahaha I know what you mean. I really just do stream trout nowadays (the spring water is 50 degrees year round, which is great in July and in January), but I've never been much for ice-fishing...I can drink beer on my couch without freezing my butt off!
need one of these

Quoting 200. sar2401:

Dang! That's a real fish, not a Photoshop job? It's a real looker. Did you have it mounted?
he had it cooked and eaten
Quoting LAbonbon:
I'm pretty good at remembering weather for this date since it has some significance to me

Almost forgot...Happy Birthday, sar! Hope it was a good one.
Thank you, Bonnie. Yes, it has been very nice, except for that trip to Walmart. Some people should have to wear a screen around them. Chubby's OK but, really, morbidly obese and spandex is just not a fashion statement. :-) Lot of weather stuff happens on my birthday for some reason, just like my vacations. I spent my 40th birthday sleeping in the hose bed of a Guerneville fire department truck hoping I wouldn't drown before morning. My first Alabama tornado hit on my birthday. The only snow we ever had at sea level in my almost 40 my years of living in CA happened on my birthday. I'm telling ya, I have some kind of weather magnetism.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
need one of these

Looks like the steering wheel's on the wrong side...
Happy birthday Sar!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he had it cooked and eaten
I don't know anything about fishing and mounting stuff. Can you eat it and still save the skin and enough skeleton so it could be mounted? He's a beautiful fish.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Happy birthday Sar!
Thank you, Tim. When's your birthday, you young whippersnapper you! :-)
13P MARCIA
Quoting 200. sar2401:

Dang! That's a real fish, not a Photoshop job? It's a real looker. Did you have it mounted?


Yeah, that one's for real. The photo was taken thru some kind of color filter on the camera, but no photoshop. It's catch and release only until April in MN for trout, so he returned to the water from whence he came. Probably would have released him even if it had been season - gotta leave the big fish to spawn so there are more big fish next time. I eat the small ones in crowded waters to reduce to the population and food competition, helping remaining fish to grow larger.
This is the same fish close-up and sans filter - was a beautiful monster, even without the color-enhancement.



For what it's worth, you couldn't eat him AND stuff him, though I bet if you took good measurements and photos, you could have a replica mount made whether you ate him or put him back.
Happy Birthday Sar. Wow three people I know have birthdays on the same day.
Quoting evilpenguinshan:


Yeah, that one's for real. The photo was taken thru some kind of color filter on the camera, but no photoshop. It's catch and release only until April in MN for trout, so he returned to the water from whence he came. Probably would have released him even if it had been season - gotta leave the big fish to spawn so there are more big fish next time. I eat the small ones in crowded waters to reduce to the population and food competition, helping remaining fish to grow larger.
This is the same fish close-up and sans filter - was a beautiful monster, even without the color-enhancement.



For what it's worth, you couldn't eat him AND stuff him, though I bet if you took good measurements and photos, you could have a replica mount made whether you ate him or put him back.
Your picture didn't make it with the post but he was a beauty. Maybe you'll run into him again. That's a good idea about the photos and measurements. I've see some stuffed fish that I'm pretty certain must be exactly that kind of replica.

EDIT: Never mind, see the picture now. He looks good no matter what kind of filter you use. :-)

EDIT AGAIN: I didn't catch these but check out the 44 pound bass that came out of Lake Eufaula, about a mile from my front door. That thing would feed a family of five for a week.

Quoting 211. sar2401:

Your picture didn't make it with the post but he was a beauty. Maybe you'll run into him again. That's a good idea about the photos and measurements. I've see some stuffed fish that I'm pretty certain must be exactly that kind of replica.

EDIT: Never mind, see the picture now. He looks good no matter what kind of filter you use. :-)

EDIT AGAIN: I didn't catch these but check out the 44 pound bass that came out of Lake Eufaula, about a mile from my front door. That thing would feed a family of five for a week.




Yeah it took me a minute to remember you have to remove the 's' from 'https' to make photos appear on WU.
Most trout fisherman only make replica mounts nowadays - people have learned over the years that if you remove lots of trophy fish, there won't be any more trophy fish after a while. Not to mention that coldwater fisheries are threatened by agricultural runoff, cattle grazing, silica mining, development, climate change (and the list goes on), so people have come to be protective of them where they still exist. Most people around here don't even realize they exist, but the Driftless region of SE MN and SW WI are 'blue-ribbon' quality trout waters, and I'm glad we recognized that before it was too late to save them.
But dang, those warmwater fish get crazy huge - reminds me of some of the monster muskies and pike that come out of the lakes around here. It always freaks people out when you're fishing next to the swimming beach smack in the center of Minneapolis and pull a 20 pound toothy 'slimer' outta the water (if you've ever handled a northern pike, you know why I call them that!). lol it makes the kids think twice about going back in!
These tiny spring creeks I fish in could never support fish much larger than a few pounds - most of the fish are in the 10-12" range. That 22 incher is one of probably 5-10 fish that size in the five mile length of stream.
Nothing outside of eye candy at this point, but holy crap.


Tropical Cyclone Lam. 80 knots.




Tropical Cyclone Marcia.. err.. 50 knots?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropical Cyclone Lam. 80 knots.




Tropical Cyclone Marcia.. err.. 50 knots?

I think we can all say that Marcia is a typhoon now.
Niagara Falls
Quoting Andrebrooks:
I think we can all say that Marcia is a typhoon now.


That'll be the wrong basin.
No support for android? And why not do an app in the spirit of classic.wunderground.com? Real weather heads don't need the crappy flash stuff. Just tye facts ma'am
Quoting 213. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nothing outside of eye candy at this point, but holy crap.





I was happy when Nashville didn't get the 6-10" of snow they were originally supposed to get. I don't want my little brother to break my snow record while I'm gone.

That is a monster storm for that late in the season. I've seen snow in Nashville on March 1 multiple times, but not to the extent that's showing.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That'll be the wrong basin.
Yeah, I was thinking that was a mistake. Severe tropical cyclone right.
Maybe this is why no upgrade. Man I love rapidscat.
Link
Quoting bartender1978:
No support for android? And why not do an app in the spirit of classic.wunderground.com? Real weather heads don't need the crappy flash stuff. Just tye facts ma'am
There's plenty of support for Android. Just use the classic site on your phone, It works fine on my S4 Mini and does what I want. We need to have people use classic so it will have enough traffic so WU doesn't kill it. And, really, do you want an app from the same people who bought you the new and improved web site?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nothing outside of eye candy at this point, but holy crap.


I love it. A giant ice storm in Georgia and tornadoes down by me. I wonder if there are any casinos in Vegas that will take proposition bets on model performance? Might be able to make some money on that?
Sheesh...

Lam:


Marcia:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA, CATEGORY THREE (14U)
4:00 PM EST February 19 2015
========================================

At 3:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia, Category Three located at 20.5S 151.0E or 290 kilometers north of Yeppoon and 200 kilometers east northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gust of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia continues to move southwest towards the Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected to maintain this motion through to landfall between St Lawrence and Gladstone early on Friday. This very dangerous cyclone is now at category 3 intensity and continuing to intensify extremely rapidly. It is now forecast to reach category 4 by landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, with gusts to 260 km/h, is expected to cross the coast between St Lawrence and Gladstone early on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Burnett Heads tonight.

GALES are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Bowen and Double Island Point this evening, and extend inland to areas including Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, and Monto overnight and Friday.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced today and Friday with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide.

Coastal residents between St Lawrence and Double Island Point are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Dangerous surf is expected about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the coast between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay ahead of tropical cyclone Marcia crossing the coast. These thunderstorms may produce localized areas of destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 km/hr about coastal and island communities.

Heavy rainfall will develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point today, particularly over areas to the south of the system. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Bowen to Double Island Point extending inland to Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, and Monto

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for adjacent inland areas between Bundaberg and Double Island Point, extending inland to include Mundubbera, Gayndah, and Murgon
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #46
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LAM, CATEGORY THREE (13U)
3:58 PM CST February 19 2015
========================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam, Category Three (964 hPa) located at 11.6S 135.7E or 45 kilometers north northeast of Galiwinku and 135 kilometers west northwest of Nhulunbuy has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gust of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is continuing to track southwest, parallel to the Wessel Islands and is expected to make landfall on the mainland coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak overnight Thursday or early Friday morning. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken during Friday as it moves inland over Arnhem Land.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 200 km/h should continue over the Wessel Islands today and are expected to extend onto the mainland coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak this afternoon and overnight. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 230 km/h may occur near the cyclone center as it crosses the coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak overnight Thursday to Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 130 km/h should develop about the mainland coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak this afternoon or evening before possibly extending west to Maningrida and adjacent inland areas from early Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas from Milingimbi to Gapuwiyak during the next 6 hours and extend further east to Nhulunbuy and west to Maningrida and adjacent inland areas later today and overnight. GALES may also extend as far west as Goulburn Island and inland to Bulman during Friday as the cyclone moves inland. GALES may extend further south to Numbulwar and Groote Eylandt and inland areas during Friday, and south to Port Roper late on Friday depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Milingimbi and Nhulunbuy, including Elcho Island, are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center approaches the coast on Thursday night and into Friday. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN may cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End today and Friday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 12.2S 135.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4) near Elcho Island
24 HRS 13.2S 134.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.7S 133.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 18.1S 130.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
===================
Since about 1530Z radar has indicated Severe TC Lam has taken a turn towards the south. This motion has persisted through to the current time and suggests that the mid-level ridge extending across Western Australia is breaking down.

Recent radar imagery has shown a better defined, more concentric eye wall, although microwave imagery at 0324UTC shows that the northeasterly shear is still affecting the system, with some tilting evident.

Cape Wessel AWS recorded a 92 knot wind gust yesterday in the western eye wall and a wind gust of 57 knots in the eastern eye wall. The lowest pressure recorded at Cape Wessel was 969.9hPa at 19/0732UTC. Ngayawili AWS has recently recorded gusts to 74 knots as the eyewall approaches.

The position of the centre is good based on the Gove Airport radar and the recent microwave pass. Evidence of the eye is starting to show on the most recent visible and EIR satellite images, with a DT or 5.0 achieved from a W surround on EIR giving an eye number of 6.0 with an eye adjustment of -1.0 based on W centre and CMG surround.

Given the emerging eye, a D development was assigned giving MET= 5.0. PAT agrees, giving a FT=5.0 and CI=5.0. Current intensity is set at 80kn [10-min].

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Goulburn Island to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy, Groote Eylandt and adjacent inland areas to Bulman

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Numbulwar to Port Roper and adjacent inland areas
Happy birthday, sar! I'm a little late, but...
just for the record android is way better then the I thingees...
Quoting 214. CybrTeddy:

Tropical Cyclone Lam. 80 knots.




Tropical Cyclone Marcia.. err.. 50 knots?




20 mins ago - Cyclone Marcia has intensified to category 4 status as it moves toward the coast of Queensland, Australia - @BOM_Qld



Australia going to get two category 4 hits at almost the same time. Those wind estimates are 1) way behind and 2) deceiving because they are 10-min averages. Winds should easily top 200kmh along the landfall zone, how is the population density in the two soon to be affected areas? It seems Marcia has the potential for a lot of economic damage?

Lam:

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA, CATEGORY FOUR (14U)
5:52 PM EST February 19 2015
========================================

At 6:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia, Category Four located at 20.6S 150.6E or 160 kilometers east northeast of Mackay and 280 kilometers north of Yeppoon has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gust of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia has now intensified to a category 4 cyclone, and continues to move west-southwest towards the Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected to turn more southwest during the next few hours and make landfall between Mackay and Gladstone early on Friday.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, with gusts to 260 km/h, is expected to cross the coast between Mackay and Gladstone early on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Burnett Heads tonight.

GALES are now beginning to occur about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point, and are expected to extend north to Bowen later this evening and inland to areas including Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, and Monto overnight and Friday.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced today and Friday with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide.

Coastal residents between Mackay and Double Island Point are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Dangerous surf is expected about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the coast between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay ahead of tropical cyclone Marcia crossing the coast. These thunderstorms may produce localised areas of destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 km/hr about coastal and island communities.

Heavy rainfall will develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point tonight, particularly over areas to the south of the system. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for adjacent inland areas between Bundaberg and Double Island Point, extending inland to include Mundubbera, Gayndah, and Murgon

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Adjacent inland areas between Bundaberg and Double Island Point, extending inland to include Mundubbera, Gayndah, and Murgon
Quoting 229. WaterWitch11:

just for the record android is way better then the I thingees...


Meh.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Happy birthday, sar! I'm a little late, but...
Thanks, Kori. Just dropped in before I finally hit the hay after one of my insomnia nights. How are things in LA? It's colder than crap here. 24 degrees with a dewpoint of 10, so that means we should bottom out somewhere around 20. The high tomorrow is supposed to be 38(!). Back down to 20 tomorrow night then we rocket back into the high 60's for the weekend with thunderstorms, after which we rocket back down to the Arctic again. The joy just keeps on coming this winter. :-)
Snowmageddon: 17 amazing pictures of record breaking US snow

UK Telegraph
Wow, thats some rapid intensification!

Category 1 this morning, now a Cat 4, expected to hit Cat 5 before landfall tomorrow.

I have family in three of the towns mentioned in this bulletin, a brother in a fourth that's in the area, and friends right under the projected track. :-/

-------
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Bowen and Double Island Point and inland to Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, Monto, Taroom, Mundubbera and Murgon are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 7:42 pm EST on Thursday 19 February 2015
Headline:
Severe tropical cyclone Marcia has become slow moving and continues to intensify, category 5 forecast for landfall.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Bowen to Double Island Point, extending inland to Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, Monto, Taroom, Mundubbera, and Murgon

Watch Zone
None

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 8:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 195 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 270 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 9 kilometres of 20.6 degrees South 150.4 degrees East, estimated to be 140 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and 280 kilometres north of Yeppoon.

Movement: west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Marcia, a category 4 cyclone has become slow moving in recent hours. It is expected to turn more southwest during the next few hours and make landfall between Mackay and Gladstone early on Friday. It is forecast to reach category 5 by landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

Hazards:
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, with gusts to 295 km/h, is expected to cross the coast between Mackay and Gladstone on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Burnett Heads tonight.

GALES are now occurring about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point, and are expected to extend north to Bowen later this evening and inland to areas including Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, Monto, Mundubbera, Taroom, and Murgon overnight and Friday.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced today and Friday with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide.

Coastal residents between Mackay and Double Island Point are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Dangerous surf is expected about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the coast between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay ahead of tropical cyclone Marcia crossing the coast. These thunderstorms may produce localised areas of destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 km/hr about coastal and island communities.

Heavy rainfall will develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point tonight, particularly over areas to the south of the system. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Recommended Action:
People between Bowen and Double Island Point should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

- Boats and outside property should be secured [using available daylight hours/before nightfall].

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm EST Thursday 19 February.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
Updated:



Marcia
237. vis0

Quoting 19. sar2401:

Might be a nice app but at least half of us will never know. How is the app any improvement over the normal WU site, which I can access just fine on my S4 Mini? Since I already cough up my $10 a year here, I refuse to pay for another WU app.
i prefer my windows APP its FAAH-REE! i open my window and look towards the horizon i call the app Punxsutawney 2.0. get it before its hot!
Quoting 197. flsky:

As a Floridian, I'm glad they're turning right. I hate the cold.



The 80s had far more cold outbreaks and florida freezes than any other of the 20'th century even though they were otherwise the warmest decade to that time. I don't know why but have often made that comment
Tech Support: How do you open this thing? There's no power switch.

Quoting 237. vis0:


i prefer my windows APP its FAAH-REE! i open my window and look towards the horizon i call the app Punxsutawney 2.0. get it before its hot!



Busted forecast for the NWS. These temps are 10 degrees above forecasted lows in some areas.

Hopping in with a "good morning" and moreover just want to say: Marcia - a really bad one! Australia, good luck!
Quoting sar2401:
We need to have people use classic so it will have enough traffic so WU doesn't kill it. And, really, do you want an app from the same people who bought you the new and improved web site?
Yeah, we get it: some people are uncomfortable with modern technology--smart phones, HTML5-based websites, computer models, iOS, and so on--and want the world to just stop changing.

That's just not going to happen. ;-)

At any rate, I think the new Storm app is great. It's cleaner, sleeker, faster, and more intuitive than the older WU app, and it presents a wider array of options. I really look forward to storm season so I can more fully check out its advanced features. Great work, Dev Team! (But hurry up with that non-iOS port!)
Quoting 241. tampabaymatt:



Busted forecast for the NWS. These temps are 10 degrees above forecasted lows in some areas.
friday morning was supposed to be the freezing morning Matt..today was supposed to be in the 40's..NWS did a good job on temps for our area.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
328 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN YEARS EXPECTED TONIGHT...
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT...
...VERY LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY -FRIDAY)...
A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS
OF THE SEASON FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...LOWER TO MID 50S CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 50S AT BEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES...SO WILL HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AT 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS THE FLOW VEERS
SLOWLY INTO THE NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE VERY COLD DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE LOWS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH FREEZING TEMPS WITH
READINGS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GIVEN THIS PLAN TO UPGRADE THE HARD
FREEZE AND FREEZE WATCHES TO WARNINGS IN THE 4 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE.
IN ADDITION WITH WINDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS
WITH HIGHER VALUES AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS MATERIALIZE...AND WILL BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TONIGHT AS WELL. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER A VERY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT AMPLE SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH WINDS VEERING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY THE VERY COLD DRY AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
Red Flag Warning for my county today.

Red Flag Warning
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1005 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...STRONG WINDS...AND
DRY FUELS...

.GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND DRY FUELS
WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN LEE COUNTY THURSDAY.

FLZ165-265-200000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0001.150219T1500Z-150220T0000Z/
COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEE-
1005 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...STRONG WINDS...AND DRY FUELS....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...COASTAL LEE...INLAND LEE.

* WIND...NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 PERCENT FOR UP TO 9 HOURS.

* ERC...AROUND 30.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

&&
$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
414 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ036>039-050>057-502- 191715-
/O.CON.KLWX.WC.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-150220T1500Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-ORAN GE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...CHARLOTTESVILLE...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG
414 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WIND CHILL...0 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. WIND
CHILLS MAY RISE CLOSER TO ZERO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING
TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY IN THE TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AROUND ZERO.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH INTO
THIS EVENING...SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES
MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THAT CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

$$
249. vis0

Quoting 239. HaoleboySurfEC:

Tech Support: How do you open this thing? There's no power switch.


yer in luck found pg 4 of the 2 page hand booklet. Self explanatory::
batteries not included.
Quoting 241. tampabaymatt:



Busted forecast for the NWS. These temps are 10 degrees above forecasted lows in some areas.


Yeah I think it's because the reinforcing cold front was moving a lot later than forecast, it's just now moving into Central Florida, and didn't move through Tallahassee until a few hours ago.

As a result, our low was only 31 when we were expecting 24. Given that it may have been a time error I'm not sure it will impact today and tonight's event.
Quoting 245. LargoFl:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
328 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN YEARS EXPECTED TONIGHT...
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TONIGHT...
...VERY LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY -FRIDAY)...
A REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS
OF THE SEASON FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...LOWER TO MID 50S CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 50S AT BEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES...SO WILL HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AT 12Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS THE FLOW VEERS
SLOWLY INTO THE NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE VERY COLD DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE LOWS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 20S...WITH FREEZING TEMPS WITH
READINGS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GIVEN THIS PLAN TO UPGRADE THE HARD
FREEZE AND FREEZE WATCHES TO WARNINGS IN THE 4 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE.
IN ADDITION WITH WINDS REMAINING CLOSE TO 10 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS
WITH HIGHER VALUES AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS MATERIALIZE...AND WILL BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TONIGHT AS WELL. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER A VERY COLD START FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SUPPORT AMPLE SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH WINDS VEERING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY THE VERY COLD DRY AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODIFY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 50S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.



Growing up in Pinellas, it only gets freeze warnings usually once every 2 years or so, and this is the latest I've seen one in the winter. The fact that it comes so late after a mostly warm winter makes it even more rare.
Good morning.. happy for everyone who is not frozen this morning!
Current Severe Map
Lam is now a Category 4



Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 8:30 pm CST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 15 kilometres of 11.9 degrees South, 135.4 degrees East , 20 kilometres northwest of Galiwinku and 60 kilometres east northeast of Milingimbi .
Movement: southwest at 8 kilometres per hour .

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is continuing to track southwest and is now impacting the coast near Elcho Island. The cyclone is expected to continue to slowly move over the coast between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak overnight tonight and during early Friday morning. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken during Friday as it moves inland over Arnhem Land.


Hazards:

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 230 kilometres per hour should continue over the southern Wessel Islands and the mainland coast near Elcho Island tonight before extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas between Milingimbi and Gapuwiyak from around midnight.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour could possibly extend west to Maningrida and adjacent inland areas from early Friday morning if the cyclone takes a more westwards track.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres will continue to develop in coastal areas between Maningrida and Nhulunbuy in the next few hours before possibly extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas between Goulburn Island and Cape Shield during early Friday. GALES should extend further inland to Bulman during Friday and possibly south to Numbulwar and Groote Eylandt. GALES may possibly extend south to Port Roper late on Friday depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Milingimbi and Nhulunbuy, including Elcho Island, are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast on Thursday night and into Friday. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

A STORM TIDE between Nhulunbuy and the Queensland border is expected around the high tide on Friday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN may cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End tonight and Friday.


Recommended Action:

The Territory Controller advises residents on Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Gapuwiyak and Ramingining to REMAIN IN SHELTER AS CONDITIONS ARE NOW AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL.

DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller when it is safe to do so.

The Territory Controller advises residents in Maningrida, Bulman, Groote Eylandt and Numbulwar that now is the time to make final preparations to shelter.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Nhulunbuy that shelters remain open. If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use and SHOULD PROCEED to that shelter. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready and take with you.

Communities under Watch are advised that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

REPEATING: CONDITIONS AT Elcho Island, Gapuwiyak, Ramingining and Milingimbi ARE AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, REMAIN IN SHELTER NOW.
I really need to get my motivation back, I need to get my ass in gear and start doing what I need to do. Today is over and tomorrow is a new day
Quoting 244. LargoFl:

friday morning was supposed to be the freezing morning Matt..today was supposed to be in the 40's..NWS did a good job on temps for our area.


The NWS had a low for Tampa of 38 for this morning. From what I can tell, the low bottomed out at 46. At my house in inland Hillsborough, the temp was 44 when I left for work this morning. This is a solid 7-8 degrees above forecasted lows by the NWS.
If you live in C & N FL then you might want to watch the forecast for next week as the Euro has a very wet pattern in place next week across the north half of FL. The totals the Euro is showing of 2" to 4" additional rain on top of the 3.5" to 4" so far this month could cause some flooding issues across low lying areas so stay tuned. GFS does not show this so again we will see if yet again the GFS moves more toward the Euro. Looks as if the upgrade hasn't worked so much for the GFS.

System #1: Northeast Nuisance
An arctic cold front will continue to spread light snow through the East into Thursday morning. Snow amounts will generally be 3 inches or less as this cold front slices through, including a swath from the Appalachians into much of New York, Pennsylvania, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States.

It's worth mentioning that while accumulations will be light, this snow could fall in a burst, or snow squall, reducing visibilities suddenly. Multi-vehicle accidents have occurred several times this winter in these sudden snow squalls.

Possible slick commutes, due to this fresh, light snow include:

Overnight: Pittsburgh | Charleston, West Virginia | Balt. | Wash., D.C.
Thu. morning: NYC | Philly | Balt. | Wash., D.C.
Thursday, low pressure is expected to wrap-up off the New England coast, south of Nova Scotia.

Before that low intensifies, bands of heavy snow along a surface trough of low pressure should align over parts of Maine and New Hampshire overnight into Thursday. Then, additional heavy snow should wrap into Maine Thursday into early Friday, before tapering off.

The National Weather Service has posted winter storm warnings for all of Maine and parts of northern New Hampshire. As you can see from our snowfall forecast map, this is where the greatest chance of at least 6 inches of snow is. Some locations where the heavy snowbands persist the longest will likely tally over a foot of new snow.
Quoting 258. tampabaymatt:



The NWS had a low for Tampa of 38 for this morning. From what I can tell, the low bottomed out at 46. At my house in inland Hillsborough, the temp was 44 when I left for work this morning. This is a solid 7-8 degrees above forecasted lows by the NWS.


Only got down to 40 here in Longwood which was 6 degrees warmer than forecast.
If this is as low as we go tonight then temps won't be that bad at all. Citrus growers are happy to see temps get marginal tonight as temps near 32 would actually be helpful to the citrus by making them more sweet.



Appropriate to the topic "storm".... "The effect of urbanisation on the climatology of thunderstorm initiation"
Link
Actually the 06Z GFS does look like the Euro. If this set up occurs then we could have several days of active weather across FL to end out February.

Morning all. Skies are clearing here, but the chill is real ... :-)


Will b looking forward to tonight's 56 degrees ...
High Ambient temperature below 32 degrees in RED
Quoting 265. StormTrackerScott:

If this is as low as we go tonight then temps won't be that bad at all. Citrus growers are happy to see temps get marginal tonight as temps near 32 would actually be helpful to the citrus by making them more sweet.






One of the paradoxes of growing Citrus in Florida is that the winter conditions are usually too warm for the
trees to develop full dormancy and cold hardiness. California trees tolerate much colder conditions than FL trees do because average winter temps are colder in California. But Florida gets more and more intense arctic outbreaks than California and these hit trees that are less dormant and less able to tolerate it. Fruit however does not develop hardiness and freezes in the mid 20s at both locations ruining it.

I grow Citrus in containers in Maryland (lemons). Cold dormancy is certainly not a problem here! I usually keep the trees out to sometime near Christmas and then have to overwinter in my unheated garage during deep winter.
This year I have a 900W supplemental heater on for the duration of this arctic outbreak.

The lemons are great. My oranges don't get enough summer heat and are very sweet but also very acid. That's
an ..uuhh acquired taste.




Quoting 218. bartender1978:

No support for android? And why not do an app in the spirit of classic.wunderground.com? Real weather heads don't need the crappy flash stuff. Just tye facts ma'am
Still waiting on the android app.
Quoting 265. StormTrackerScott:

If this is as low as we go tonight then temps won't be that bad at all. Citrus growers are happy to see temps get marginal tonight as temps near 32 would actually be helpful to the citrus by making them more sweet.





Regardless, I'm very interested to see if the entire area gets a solid freeze tonight. I was marveling at the planting used in areas at Disney; so much of it are things that you would expect to find in an area where no freezes occur, which I guess has been the case in Orlando basically since 2010!

I remember avidly checking the lows in all areas of FL that morning in February 2010, from what I remember the Orlando area got to about 27, which was actually warmer than forecasted: I remember seeing forecasts into the mid 20's at one point or even a little lower which could have been disastrous for citrus growers.
Quoting 265. StormTrackerScott:

If this is as low as we go tonight then temps won't be that bad at all. Citrus growers are happy to see temps get marginal tonight as temps near 32 would actually be helpful to the citrus by making them more sweet.






Unless the wind relaxes, there is no way temps will get this low tonight. Local mets think the wind will relax later today, but when I went for my 5 AM run this morning the wind was whipping.
Quoting 271. georgevandenberghe:



One of the paradoxes of growing Citrus in Florida is that the winter conditions are usually too warm for the
trees to develop full dormancy and cold hardiness. California trees tolerate much colder conditions than FL trees do because average winter temps are colder in California. But Florida gets more and more intense arctic outbreaks than California and these hit trees that are less dormant and less able to tolerate it. Fruit however does not develop hardiness and freezes in the mid 20s at both locations ruining it.

I grow Citrus in containers in Maryland (lemons). Cold dormancy is certainly not a problem here! I usually keep the trees out to sometime near Christmas and then have to overwinter in my unheated garage during deep winter.
This year I have a 900W supplemental heater on for the duration of this arctic outbreak.

The lemons are great. My oranges don't get enough summer heat and are very sweet but also very acid. That's
an ..uuhh acquired taste.







Forecast calls for temps near freezing and this would not impact the Citrus much at all infact make the fruit sweeter as it has been a relatively warm Winter this year with temps only down to 40 over the last couple of months. Halloween weekend has been the coldest so far this season.
Quoting 274. tampabaymatt:



Unless the wind relaxes, there is no way temps will get this low tonight. Local mets think the wind will relax later today, but when I went for my 5 AM run this morning the wind was whipping.


The wind is going to dye down tonight so yes temps will fall back maybe only to near freezing more like the 30 to 34 degree range areawide.
Well not so fast as just as fast as the cold came in its gone just as fast.

Quoting 266. GeoffreyWPB:




I'd be very surprised to see these temps verify with winds that high. 36 in Homestead is unheard of.
In addition to S.W. Florida, Red Flag Warnings over on the East Coast of Fl.

Red Flag Warning
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
734 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

FLZ063-066>072-168-172-192045-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FW.W.0001.150219T1400Z-150219T2200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-
734 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
HIGH ERC, WIND, AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
063...066...067...068... 069...070...071...072...168 AND 172...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 063...066...067...068...
069...070...071...072...168 AND 172.

* WIND...15-20 MILES PER HOUR

* HUMIDITY...19-30 PERCENT

* ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)...28-33

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&
Quoting 209. evilpenguinshan:



Yeah, that one's for real. The photo was taken thru some kind of color filter on the camera, but no photoshop. It's catch and release only until April in MN for trout, so he returned to the water from whence he came. Probably would have released him even if it had been season - gotta leave the big fish to spawn so there are more big fish next time. I eat the small ones in crowded waters to reduce to the population and food competition, helping remaining fish to grow larger.
This is the same fish close-up and sans filter - was a beautiful monster, even without the color-enhancement.



For what it's worth, you couldn't eat him AND stuff him, though I bet if you took good measurements and photos, you could have a replica mount made whether you ate him or put him back.

Very Nice fish, it's -33.4 out now - gonna stay in the house. lol Oh well couple more months and the fly rod will be used.
Additional Red Flag Warnings for a large part of East Central Florida.

Red Flag Warning
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
236 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...VERY DRY AIR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

FLZ046-047-054-059-064-147-192300-
/O.UPG.KMLB.FW.A.0001.150219T1500Z-150220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.FW.W.0001.150219T1400Z-150219T2300Z/
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
236 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND SUSTAINED WINDS. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* AFFECTED AREA... INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY... NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY... ORANGE... SEMINOLE... SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...
OSCEOLA... INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE... ST. LUCIE... MARTIN...
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY... SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY... NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY.

* WIND...20 FOOT WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT VALUES WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
Quoting 282. Sfloridacat5:

Additional Red Flag Warnings for a large part of East Central Florida.

Red Flag Warning
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
236 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...VERY DRY AIR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY...

FLZ046-047-054-059-064-147-192300-
/O.UPG.KMLB.FW.A.0001.150219T1500Z-150220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.FW.W.0001.150219T1400Z-150219T2300Z/
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
236 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND SUSTAINED WINDS. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* AFFECTED AREA... INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY... NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY... ORANGE... SEMINOLE... SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...
OSCEOLA... INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE... ST. LUCIE... MARTIN...
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY... SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY... NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY.

* WIND...20 FOOT WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HIGH ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT VALUES WILL CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


LOL we don't have to worry about any fires here as the backside of my neighborhood resembles a large river right now as water levels are so high. Never seen water levels this high in February before. Maybe once and that was February 1998 but not since then.
Marcia could intensify further into a 115 knots (10 min) category five cyclone in 6 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA, CATEGORY FOUR (14U)
10:54 PM EST February 19 2015
========================================

At 11:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia, Category Four (940 hPa) located at 21.0S 150.5E or 185 kilometers north northeast of St Lawrence and 245 kilometers north of Yeppoon has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gust of 145 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/D3.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia, category 4, is continuing to move in a south southwest direction towards the Queensland coast. The cyclone is expected to continue moving in the same general direction overnight and make landfall between St Lawrence and Gladstone during Friday morning.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia strengthened very rapidly during Thursday. The system has stabilized within the category 4 range over the past few hours but may still reach category 5 before landfall.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current to the south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Marcia, with gusts to 295 km/h, is expected to cross the coast between St Lawrence and Gladstone on Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Burnett Heads tonight.

GALES are now occurring about coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point, and are expected to extend north to Bowen later this evening and inland to areas including Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, Monto, Mundubbera, Taroom, and Murgon overnight and Friday.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced today and Friday with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide. Note also that abnormally high tides are also likely on Friday evening's high tide in parts of the warning area even though the cyclone is likely to be over land and weaker by then.

Coastal residents between Mackay and Double Island Point are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast, and in the following high tide well after landfall during Friday evening. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Dangerous surf is expected about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape.

Heavy rainfall is already occurring about some coastal and island communities between Mackay and Double Island Point, and is expected to continue, and extend inland, during Friday. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 22.8S 150.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 24.6S 150.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 27.8S 153.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 29.3S 155.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
Marcia underwent a period of very rapid intensification earlier Thursday. CIMSS winds show approximately 10 knots of E/NE deep layer shear over the system.

The satellite signature improved markedly during the day with an eye becoming visible from about 03Z, and it remains clear. Confidence of the low level circulation center position is therefore high.

The 1032Z MTSAT enhanced infrared image exhibited an OW eye with an LG surround, and the radar over the past two hours has suggested evidence of an eye-wall weakness in the northern and eastern flanks, though this could be due to radar attenuation. The DT averaged over the past 3 hours is 6.0, but has been in a declining trend due to the possible eye-wall weakness. CI held up at 6.5 due to constraints.

Recent movement has been in the forecast south southwest direction.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Mackay to Double Island Point, extending inland to Blackwater, Moura, Biloela, Monto, Taroom, Mundubbera, and Murgon
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #52
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LAM, CATEGORY FOUR (13U)
10:05 PM CST February 19 2015
========================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam, Category Four (943 hPa) located at 12.0S 135.4E or 20 kilometers west northwest of Galiwinku and 55 kilometers east northeast of Milingimbi. has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gust of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is continuing to track southwest and is now impacting the coast near Elcho Island. The cyclone centre is expected to continue to slowly cross the coast between Milingimbi and Elcho Island tonight. Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken during Friday as it moves inland over Arnhem Land.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 230 km/h should continue over the southern Wessel Islands and the mainland coast near Elcho Island before extending towards Milingimbi and adjacent inland areas in the next few hours.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 130 km/h could possibly extend west towards Maningrida and adjacent inland areas from midnight.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h will continue to develop in coastal areas between Maningrida and Nhulunbuy in the next few hours before possibly extending to coastal and adjacent inland areas between Goulburn Island and Cape Shield during early Friday. GALES should extend further inland to Bulman during Friday and possibly south to Numbulwar and Groote Eylandt. GALES may possibly extend south to Port Roper late on Friday.

Coastal residents between Milingimbi and Nhulunbuy, including Elcho Island, are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

A STORM TIDE between Nhulunbuy and the Queensland border is expected around high tide on Friday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN may cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End tonight and Friday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 12.7S 134.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.8S 134.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.5S 132.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 18.8S 129.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
===================
Severe tropical cyclone Lam has recently intensified to a category 4 system with a cloud filled eye and an extensive banding feature evident on recent infrared satellite imagery. Dvorak analysis was based on an eye pattern with a white surround and a subtraction for a black eye and a cold medium grey surround, giving a CF of 5.5. An added 0.5 for a BF gave a DT of 6.0. MET and PAT are... FT was based on a 3-hour averaged DT as it appears clear.

The position of the system is rated as good based on radar imagery from across the Top End of the Northern Territory. Observations from Ngayawili indicated storm force winds with wind gusts up to 81 knots in the southern eye wall before the Automatic Weather Station failed.

There has been some trochoidal motion evident in severe tropical cyclone Lam's progression towards the coast, but overall the system appears to be moving slowly in a southwest direction as it begins to move over the northeast Top End coast. Lam should continue moving in this direction overnight and should fully move across the coast during Friday morning, where it will then continue to move inland and begin to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Goulburn Island to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy, Groote Eylandt and adjacent inland areas to Bulman
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:



I bet Orlando officially stays above freezing tomorrow night.
I doubt that, it's suppose to be in the mid 30s where I live in South Miami Florida. The only reason for the warmer temps is where the thermometers are now placed and with all the new construction and population boom in your area it's become a major heat island in downtown Orlando. Just a couple miles outside the city it will be in the mid to upper 20's.
Good Morning All. I have an older Chocolate Lab (part of the family at 10 years old) that can't get up and down the stairs outside by herself so I have to carry her out every morning and afternoon; have to be outside with her every morning around 7 regardless of the weather. I was thankful in Tallahassee this morning that my temp was at 30 vs. the 20's but not much difference really; the winds was blowing a little so the wind chill still felt in the mid-20's. Was holding that hot cup of coffee in one hand but the exposed hand on the dog leash was "tingling" from the cold. Called the Daughter in Atlanta a few minutes ago and it was 15 for her this morning.
Quoting 194. evilpenguinshan:



Hahaha I know what you mean. I really just do stream trout nowadays (the spring water is 50 degrees year round, which is great in July and in January), but I've never been much for ice-fishing...I can drink beer on my couch without freezing my butt off!


It made negative 16, but it is calm and dry. No a bad morning. I don't think those 25,000 dollar ice fishing houses are cold inside. More like a nice RV with a hatch in the floor. They just drive out on the lake in the pick up truck with the RV behind and set up. I heard that on of the lakes in Minnisota has so many people in the winter living there that it has its own zip code.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL we don't have to worry about any fires here as the backside of my neighborhood resembles a large river right now as water levels are so high. Never seen water levels this high in February before. Maybe once and that was February 1998 but not since then.


If your neighborhood is flooding with the rainfall you've had lately, I'd hate to see what it looks like in the summer when 10" a month is common.
This next Kelvin Wave is already beginning to show itself across Nino 4. I expect that in March and April that values across Nino 3.4 will go up even higher as well.



Nino 4


Nino 3.4


Then finally this next kelvin Wave is forecast to reach Nino 1&2 by May or June.
Quoting 289. Sfloridacat5:



If your neighborhood is flooding with the rainfall you've had lately, I'd hate to see what it looks like in the summer when 10" a month is common.



There is no flooding its just we have a little creek on the backside of our neighborhood and right now its more like a large river that's about 4 feet deep which normally only 6" to 10" deep.
Once the wind dies down tonight, I suspect that we will hit the hard freeze in North Florida overnight, However, the moderating influence of the Gulf and Atlantic for these parts is a beautiful thing once the high pressure ridge moves offshore and the winds swing around again out of the S-SE. High temps back into the 70's during the day on Sunday; Spring for us is right around the corner.
Quoting 288. Qazulight:



It made negative 16, but it is calm and dry. No a bad morning. I don't think those 25,000 dollar ice fishing houses are cold inside. More like a nice RV with a hatch in the floor. They just drive out on the lake in the pick up truck with the RV behind and set up. I heard that on of the lakes in Minnisota has so many people in the winter living there that it has its own zip code.

Cheers
Qazulight

Just having a black portable hub shanty on a sunny day is comfortable. Normally fish without a coat on, and if it's not sunny a Mr Buddy heater takes care of the cold. (i did fish fish for many years without a shanty) lol it's up to -16F now
115 knots, 937 mbar per NRL.

A very well organized tropical cyclone.

Quoting 290. StormTrackerScott:

This next Kelvin Wave is already beginning to show itself across Nino 4. I expect that in March in April that values across Nino 3.4 will go up even higher as well.



Nino 4
Scott, are you a Weather Bell subscriber, if so read what JB says about this upcoming summer season and why their will not be a Nino this season. You need to learn to not trust any model this far out concerning the upcoming summer season and try to read between the lines in why most of the models are wrong. Garbage in, equal, garbage out.
Nine News Brisbane @9NewsBrisbane

Latest information from @BOM_Qld indicates #TCMarcia expected to make landfall between St. Lawrence and Gladstone later this morning. #9News

Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/cyclone-marcia#FKRtTk30ZAk LVtLx.99
Quoting 291. StormTrackerScott:



There is no flooding its just we have a little creek on the backside of our neighborhood and right now its more like a large river that's about 4 feet deep which normally only 6" to 10" deep.

I'm grateful for all the rain. It has saved me a lot on my water bill for one. Looks like there is a freeze warning for the entire FL Peninsula, excluding the Miami metro area. Orlando is forecast to have a low of 32F per the NWS, while the inland South FL locations I checked are supposed to be colder. This is thanks to our heat island, the city seldom freezes anymore, when in the past it easily would have.
In terms of the rest of Conus (not counting the warmer weather on the NW side), here is the big picture headline from NWS for today: looks like many February low temp records are going to be broken:

Dangerously cold temperatures continue across much of the eastern U.S.

Very cold temperatures remain in place over much of the eastern half of the U.S. Many locations will see temperatures 25 to 45 degrees below average with some records threatened. Dangerous wind chills are also expected from the northern Plains to the Gulf Coast making temperatures feel as though they are below zero in many locations.


Gee, less than half the people who own cell phone and/or tablets use some brand other than Apple.   [per Forbes 8 February 2015 article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2015/02/08 /apples-iphone-market-share-leveling-off-in-some-c ountries/ ]

Where are the Windows and Android app versions?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This next Kelvin Wave is already beginning to show itself across Nino 4. I expect that in March and April that values across Nino 3.4 will go up even higher as well.



Nino 4


Nino 3.4


Then finally this next kelvin Wave is forecast to reach Nino 1&2 by May or June.


Quoting a female rock stars big it- "SO WHAT"
And here are the current watches, advisories, and warning areas across Conus; all those colors on the Eastern-South Eastern side of things represent some of the freeze warnings:


Why would Wunderground release this app on iOS when Android has much greater market share across all devices? 
There's now an area of D1 (Moderate Drought) in S. Florida along with a part of the far western Panhandle.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
There's now an area of D1 (Moderate Drought) in S. Florida.



Your are in a drought and just to your north Scott/Jeff's house is under water. Go figure.
Here is the current Conus infared shot; nice visual of the bitter cold plunging down into the US from Canada:

This image is taken in the infrared band of light and show relative warmth of objects. Colder objects are brighter and warmer objects are darker. Lower layers of clouds, generally warmer and lower in altitude, are colored gray. Colder and generally higher clouds tops are highlighted in colors. Infrared imagery is useful for determining cloud features both at day and nigh

Infrared Satellite Image
feels like the first day of winter e cen fl. certainly did not forecast this
Quoting 301. weathermanwannabe:

And here are the current watches, advisories, and warning areas across Conus; all those colors on the Eastern-South Eastern side of things represent some of the freeze warnings:



check your mail
Started out at 34 below,, now up to 27 below but at least the wind is not a problem
This weekend's storm system that will impact the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley and the Mid-Atlantic is looking more interesting. Models are trending colder with the system. The NAM 12z runs shows 3-6 inches of snow over Maryland before a change over to a dry slot or light rain with much colder surface temperatures.
Was 0 degrees here today.....high of 11....
Turkey currently (or at least in the last days) got the most interesting weather in/near Europe. The year of sea-effect snow for them! Caused by a low with cold air advecting this snow from the north over the Black Sea. Already up to 354cm = 11,6 feet in the mountains, and at sea level in Istanbul it was still enough to create havoc - but a beautiful scenery as well:



Istanbul snowstorm grounds planes, shuts Bosphorus to tankers
ISTANBUL Wed Feb 18, 2015 11:56pm GMT
(Reuters) - A snowstorm in Istanbul grounded planes, halted traffic and forced the closure of the Bosphorus Strait shipping channel on Wednesday, Turkish officials said.
Turkish Airlines, Europe's fourth-largest carrier, said it was forced to cancel more than 300 flights scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday.
Ataturk Airport, Istanbul's main airport and the fourth-busiest in Europe, closed briefly in the morning because of the adverse weather, but reopened by early afternoon.
Some commuters in the city of 15 million had to walk to work after as much as 60 cm (24 inches) of snow fell in two days in parts of Istanbul. ...






New design of this map with weather systems named by the Institute in Berlin (click to enlarge):

Source. Germany under high Isa with boring foggy grey sky for me.

Edit: The cold and snow weather extended to northern regions of Greece as well. Severe Weather Greece has some pics.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Your are in a drought and just to your north Scott/Jeff's house is under water. Go figure.


Yeah, I was checking out the Forest Department cameras setup around Southern Florida and most of the ground vegetation (tall grass) is dead in most areas. A brush fire would spread like crazy across the southern third of the state.

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 3 sec ago


Clear

Clear


-2.2 °F

Feels Like -23 °F







N

12.1

Wind from NNE
Gusts 12.3 mph
Quoting 313. jpsb:



Great Lakes ice growing faster than even last year's frigid winter


lake Ontario will not freeze over that I can assure you
316. bwi
Quoting 309. Drakoen:

This weekend's storm system that will impact the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley and the Mid-Atlantic is looking more interesting. Models are trending colder with the system. The NAM 12z runs shows 3-6 inches of snow over Maryland before a change over to a dry slot or light rain with much colder surface temperatures.


Watching the next system too, currently GFS suppresses south, but there's still an awful lot of cold air in the pipeline and lots of warm water off the SE coast, so anything that could block a system up and slow it down could create some fun for the mid-atlantic. Still thinking modeling tending this winter to slightly overdo the cold and slightly have too southerly storm tracks, but I have no evidence to back that up -- just sort seems like it by casual observation.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, I was checking out the Forest Department cameras setup around Southern Florida and most of the ground vegetation (tall grass) is dead in most areas. A brush fire would spread like crazy across the southern third of the state.


You need a couple of slow moving tropical systems and that can wipe out any drought quickly. Unfortunately that is not until the summer. What would worry me is April and May when it gets hot and the drought worsens.
Quoting 316. bwi:



Watching the next system too, currently GFS suppresses south, but there's still an awful lot of cold air in the pipeline and lots of warm water off the SE coast, so anything that could block a system up and slow it down could create some fun for the mid-atlantic. Still thinking modeling tending this winter to slightly overdo the cold and slightly have too southerly storm tracks, but I have no evidence to back that up -- just sort seems like it by casual observation.


The NAM 12z run is great for us this weekend. An additional 3-6 inches using 10:1 ratios to sleet to dry slot or light rain. Hope the trends continue. I've been watching the system for next week but I still think we need to get this weekend's system out of the way first.
Does anyone here ever wonder or think that TWC has a bit of an "east of the Mississippi" bias?

Colorado Spings, CO, for example, has a forecast storm total of close to 20" of snow for an upcoming weekend storm. Link

However, there doesn't seem to be much mention of it on TWC. All about what's next for Boston, or "ice in the South" ....

They can't even bother to give it a name, from what I gather. Much less send even a D-List crew out to cover it live.
Quoting Drakoen:


The NAM 12z run is great for us this weekend. An additional 3-6 inches using 10:1 ratios to sleet to dry slot or light rain. Hope the trends continue. I've been watching the system for next week but I still think we need to get this weekend's system out of the way first.


Hey Drakeon, I know you graduated from FSU (go Noles!) Are you working now? Where?
Quoting 320. luvtogolf:



Hey Drakeon, I know you graduated from FSU (go Noles!) Are you working now? Where?


Yes, I do work. I can't say where I work.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes, I do work. I can't say where I work.


Well good luck! You have a great future!
Quoting luvtogolf:


You need a couple of slow moving tropical systems and that can wipe out any drought quickly. Unfortunately that is not until the summer. What would worry me is April and May when it gets hot and the drought worsens.


Many of the really bad/large fires start from early season thunderstorms in the Spring. Some of the big fires can be in April-May right before the rainy season kicks in.
Quoting 286. NativeSun:

I doubt that, it's suppose to be in the mid 30s where I live in South Miami Florida. The only reason for the warmer temps is where the thermometers are now placed and with all the new construction and population boom in your area it's become a major heat island in downtown Orlando. Just a couple miles outside the city it will be in the mid to upper 20's.


Well, I would agree if the official station for Orlando wasn't the airport which is about 9 miles from the city center. Downtown does experience the heat island affect, but there are no official reporting stations downtown, the closest would be the executive airport (unofficial) which is by me, roughly 2-3 miles (edit for distance correction) from the city center. Regardless, the same increasing temperature trends are there for both stations.
Quoting 287. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning All. I have an older Chocolate Lab (part of the family at 10 years old) that can't get up and down the stairs outside by herself so I have to carry her out every morning and afternoon; have to be outside with her every morning around 7 regardless of the weather. I was thankful in Tallahassee this morning that my temp was at 30 vs. the 20's but not much difference really; the winds was blowing a little so the wind chill still felt in the mid-20's. Was holding that hot cup of coffee in one hand but the exposed hand on the dog leash was "tingling" from the cold. Called the Daughter in Atlanta a few minutes ago and it was 15 for her this morning.


fish oil and aspirin will help her ask your vet
Quoting 244. LargoFl:

friday morning was supposed to be the freezing morning Matt..today was supposed to be in the 40's..NWS did a good job on temps for our area.


From the NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
954 AM EST THU FEB 19 2015

.UPDATE...
IT TOOK A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE SECONDARY SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBS HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS DROPPING SOME 10-20
DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOWER TEENS. THIS LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
SECONDARY SURGE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO STAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST. AS SUCH...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS SO HAVE EXPIRED THE WC ADVISORY A TAD EARLY.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
Quoting 287. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning All. I have an older Chocolate Lab (part of the family at 10 years old) that can't get up and down the stairs outside by herself so I have to carry her out every morning and afternoon; have to be outside with her every morning around 7 regardless of the weather. I was thankful in Tallahassee this morning that my temp was at 30 vs. the 20's but not much difference really; the winds was blowing a little so the wind chill still felt in the mid-20's. Was holding that hot cup of coffee in one hand but the exposed hand on the dog leash was "tingling" from the cold. Called the Daughter in Atlanta a few minutes ago and it was 15 for her this morning.


Chewable or injectable Rimadyl will help.. 4 times stronger than aspirin...Aspirin is best if no Rimadyl


Dew points are rapidly dropping across C FL.
Lam making landfall at a crawl...Prayers to those in the path..

Marcia nearing land as well..

Some images from the Big Cypress Fire we had back in the Spring of 2013. Link

Thanks for all the "dog lovers"; I did respond to an e-mail earlier. My Lab does do the Remadyl and under vet care and we built her a ramp last year to ease up and down the stairs but she has that degenerative arthritis in the back limbs. I don't like to see her struggle up and down regardless so I just show her the love and carry her up and down every day. She does fine in the house and turns into a "pup" when I play with her regardless....................... :)
I normally don't post these long advisories, but this is cold for us.



Issued by The National Weather Service Miami, FL
Thu, Feb 19, 3:16 am EST

... WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY.
* WIND CHILL VALUES... IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
* OTHER IMPACTS... NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH... POSSIBLY UP TO 10 MPH NEAR THE COAST... WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS TO CREATE COLD WIND CHILLS.
336. redux
im confused. did people suddenly stop using polar vortex to describe winter?
Quoting 336. redux:

im confused. did people suddenly stop using polar vortex to describe winter?


It's "subtropical anti-vortex" now. Credit to Dr. Rood. :)
Quoting 328. hydrus:

Quoting 287. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning All. I have an older Chocolate Lab (part of the family at 10 years old) that can't get up and down the stairs outside by herself so I have to carry her out every morning and afternoon; have to be outside with her every morning around 7 regardless of the weather. I was thankful in Tallahassee this morning that my temp was at 30 vs. the 20's but not much difference really; the winds was blowing a little so the wind chill still felt in the mid-20's. Was holding that hot cup of coffee in one hand but the exposed hand on the dog leash was "tingling" from the cold. Called the Daughter in Atlanta a few minutes ago and it was 15 for her this morning.


Chewable or injectable Rimadyl will help.. 4 times stronger than aspirin...Aspirin is best if no Rimadyl


Carrying the waste bag in one hand and leashes in the other with 5F and strong winds.. yeah that hurts the hands. And after two cycles of that the dogs didn't want to go out anymore until the wind died down.

This outbreak as of Thurs AM is not NEARLY as bad as Sunday's so far in DC metro. Less wind but it also looks like the true arctic air is having trouble getting over the Appalachians. 11F was as cold as I got this morning even with snow cover. Still expecting a second colder surge tonight.

PREDECTION;Wunderground will say this is the first warmest Feburary on record!
Speaking of fronts near Nicaragua...

Many of the T.V. meteorologists/broadcasters have switched back to "Siberian Express"
Quoting 281. TroutMadness:


Very Nice fish, it's -33.4 out now - gonna stay in the house. lol Oh well couple more months and the fly rod will be used.


Here in DC we have snakeheads. I think we should make the best of it and call them "southern pike". They compete with largemouth bass for prey and don't bite nearly as readily as bass do. The Potomac actually has very good largemouth fishing below the Wilson Bridge and good smallmouth fishing above the Key bridge.
But I like to eat what I catch and I can't eat potomac fish safely.
Quoting 340. help4u:

PREDECTION;Wunderground will say this is the first warmest Feburary on record!


Funny, Wunderground doesn't collect or analyze temperature data. I think you may not understand how this works...
Quoting 336. redux:

im confused. did people suddenly stop using polar vortex to describe winter?

Nope. Issued this morning:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2015

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2015 - 12Z Sat Feb 21 2015

***Areas of snow from the Great Lakes to New England***

***Historic cold for the eastern U.S. through Friday***

***Developing storm system over the southern U.S.***

The overall weather pattern through the end of the week will continue to
be featured with a pronounced and anomalous upper level trough over the
eastern half of the country, and a big upper level ridge for the western
states. This will keep most of the West Coast, the Great Basin, and the
Desert Southwest warmer and drier than normal, and the central and eastern
parts of the U.S. much colder than normal. Although the weather is
pleasant out west, the drought continues for California and much of the
Intermountain West, and no appreciable rain is in the forecast over the
next couple of days.

Over the eastern half of the nation, we all know that it has been quite
cold over the past week. Get ready for an even more impressive surge of
arctic air later this week as another cold front drops south from Canada.
There are indications that this could be some of the coldest weather since
the mid-1990s for some parts of the Southeast U.S., Mid-Atlantic, and
central Appalachians. An eddy of the polar vortex will add to the potency
of the surface cold front, thus creating a deep layer of bitterly cold
air. Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the teens
for many of these areas, and overnight lows could reach zero degrees or
even lower in some places! Wind chill advisories and warnings are
currently in effect. The overnight lows on Thursday night will be the
coldest in those areas where the wind goes calm, allowing for additional
radiational cooling. After Friday, temperatures are forecast to moderate
and get closer to February averages.

In the precipitation department, a developing surface low over the
southern Plains will tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and result in
an expanding area of rain, wintry mix, and snow from the Deep south to the
Ohio Valley by Friday night. Another sleet and freezing rain event is
appearing increasingly likely from Missouri to northern Georgia, before a
change-over to rain happens later on Saturday. Elsewhere, there will be
periods of light snow and snow showers from the Great Lakes to the
Mid-Atlantic and New England as shortwave energy with the arctic front
moves across the region on Thursday. Upslope flow near the eastern side
of the Rockies will likely lead to light snow for the region on Friday.

D. Hamrick
Cat 4 STC Marcia (Cat 3 Hurricane)



Forecasted to make landfall as a Cat 5 STC


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia at 2:00 am EST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 195 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 270 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 9 kilometres of 21.2 degrees South, 150.4 degrees East , 155 kilometres northeast of St Lawrence and 210 kilometres north of Yeppoon .
Movement: south southwest at 11 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia, category 4, is expected to continue moving in a southerly direction towards the Queensland coast, and make landfall between St. Lawrence and Gladstone later this morning.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia strengthened very rapidly during Thursday, and is forecast to reach category 5 before landfall.

Cat 4 STC Lam(Cat 3 Hurricane)





Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lam at 12:30 am CST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 185 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 260 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.1 degrees South, 135.1 degrees East , 50 kilometres west southwest of Galiwinku and 20 kilometres east of Milingimbi .
Movement: southwest at 8 kilometres per hour .

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of severe tropical cyclone Lam is continuing to track southwest and is now impacting the coast between Milingimbi and Elcho Island. The cyclone centre is expected to continue to slowly cross the coast tonight. Severe tropical cyclone Lam is then expected to weaken during Friday as it moves inland over Arnhem Land.
For context, the Eastern U.S. is not the globe:

Quoting 335. Grothar:

I normally don't post these long advisories, but this is cold for us.



Issued by The National Weather Service Miami, FL
Thu, Feb 19, 3:16 am EST

... WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY.
* WIND CHILL VALUES... IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
* OTHER IMPACTS... NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH... POSSIBLY UP TO 10 MPH NEAR THE COAST... WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS TO CREATE COLD WIND CHILLS.
u will need a sweater jacket and socks for the sandals
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Many of the T.V. meteorologists/broadcasters have switched back to "Siberian Express"


I agree. Even the hypesters (love Cantore) on TWC are talking Siberian Express. Not sure if there is a difference?
maybe a fire barrel after midnight till 6 in the morning
GFS 12z trending towards the NAM with a colder solution for the Mid-Atlantic. A general 3-6 inches of snow on top of our existing snowpack before switching over the sleet or freezing rain. It's possible the models will continue to trend colder as they realized the depth of the existing airmass and the snow cover in place keeping low level temps fairly cold and more support of frozen precipitation.
Quoting 309. Drakoen:

This weekend's storm system that will impact the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley and the Mid-Atlantic is looking more interesting. Models are trending colder with the system. The NAM 12z runs shows 3-6 inches of snow over Maryland before a change over to a dry slot or light rain with much colder surface temperatures.
I said the models were underestimating the cold air.Seems like they are starting to get a good sample.The air almost took my breath away this morning (I mean this literally) .I haven't seen it this cold in late February since 94/96.
When I was young, I read a Reader's Digest article about when Niagara falls stopped flowing, because of a jam of ice flows in 1848. People were able to walk on the river bottom. I don't believe the falls have ever actually frozen over completely, but here are some picture of parts of it frozen.

I believe this was from 1911

Quoting 352. washingtonian115:

I said the models were underestimating the cold air.Seems like they are starting to get a good sample.The air almost took my breath away this morning (I mean this literally) .I haven't seen it this cold in late February since 94/96.


True but we've seen situations where the models warm us up in the face of a strong southwesterly low level jet despite the cold airmass in place. This situation looks like it will be different though.
Quoting 315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lake Ontario will not freeze over that I can assure you

Don't bet on it, current analysis says it will come very close this year.


1911 (I'm third from the bottom) :)



Quoting 348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u will need a sweater jacket and socks for the sandals


We have our snuggies and we are going to use our fireplace for the first time in 10 years. I hope no squirrels made any nests in there.
concerning el nino........i'm awaiting the mid february plume of models........however....the japanese who preaturely declared el nino....and then recently retracted that.....their model.....sees no el nino spring through fall


Spring from January 2015 2015, summer, autumn outlook
El Nino Forecast: According to the prediction of SINTEX-F model, but in the tropical Pacific Ocean followed by a state of high water temperature, similar to the El Nino mock, it will decay in the summer.
Quoting 358. ricderr:

concerning el nino........i'm awaiting the mid february plume of models........however....the japanese who preaturely declared el nino....and then recently retracted that.....their model.....sees no el nino spring through fall


Spring from January 2015 2015, summer, autumn outlook
El Nino Forecast: According to the prediction of SINTEX-F model, but in the tropical Pacific Ocean followed by a state of high water temperature, similar to the El Nino mock, it will decay in the summer.



Is that from this morning's tarot card reading?
Quoting 340. help4u:

PREDECTION;Wunderground will say this is the first warmest Feburary on record!


PREDECTION ?

Feburary?

First rule of innuendo blogging.

Spell-Checka' Breaux...
Quoting 234. yonzabam:

Snowmageddon: 17 amazing pictures of record breaking US snow

UK Telegraph

Crazy tweets/photos. The one from Hull is nuts, and the one with the tunnel is hilarious...shows people have a great sense of humor.

Thanks for linking this.
Weather.com was using the term.
"Arctic Invasion"

I kind of like that one.
I often forget, when considering parts of Western Europe, or the small islands in the Caribbean during cane season (smaller countries and nations) how large and vast Conus is; one of the largest countries in the World (like Russia, China, Brazil in terms of geographic span) spanning from mid-to-higher latitudes with oceans on both sides and Canada to the North and Mexico, Gulf, and Caribbean to the South. Point being that in any given season/year, different parts of the US can experience vast differences in weather and temps at any given moment or span (think the dust bowl in the 30's or the current temp differentials between East and West). A smaller country or region (most of the World actually) can get "stuck" with a devastating weather pattern that can cause tremendous hardship for the entire population (and the need for foreign aid) and the larger countries can absorb these impacts a little better and shift resources or assistance from other parts of the country.

The regular "seasons" will be with us all but extreme weather patterns/events are always a big challenge.
Quoting 359. Drakoen:



Is that from this morning's tarot card reading?


I base my El Nino fo' cast on increasing CO2 levels..and which way Trumps Hair is parted.

82% success rate too.

: P
12Z GFS continues its trend toward several days of heavy rain potential across C & N FL from Wednesday thru the end of next week. If this pattern sets up as the models are now suggesting we could be dealing with some very high rainfall totals. Something to watch as I won't place a number on that yet until Monday as the models could trend back and forth the next couple of days.

Very impressive GFS precip forecast thru day 10. This would be on top of the 3.5" to 4" many across the Tampa & Orlando areas have seen so far this month.

By 7:00 PM the model showing pockets of low level cold air trapped over Central Virginia and the southwest so the rain may be freezing rain but temperatures of 32°. The northern half of the Shenandoah Valley as well as north of Fredericksburg up to and including all of Maryland/ DC / BAL is saying moderate to heavy snow. The snow was also reached into southeastern PA.

Well..Looks like I have to go shopping..again...
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
954 am EST Thursday Feb 19 2015

Update...
it took a few hours longer than expected but the secondary surge of
Arctic air has finally made its way through the majority of the
forecast area. Surface observation have shown dewpoints dropping some 10-20
degrees over the last few hours from the Bay area north where
dewpoints are now in the lower teens. This late arrival of the
secondary surge allowed for temperatures to stay a few degrees warmer
than forecast. As such...wind chill values are just above
critical levels so have expired the wc advisory a tad early.
Updated zones have already been sent.

Not much of a warm-up is expected today despite the ample sunshine
expected across the area. It will remain breezy for much of the day
which will certainly make it feel even colder despite the
sunshine. Highs will remain in the 40s for northern zones with
lower to middle 50s expected from the Bay area south. Tonight
continues to look cold with recent guidance suggesting some areas
may be colder than currently forecast. Somewhat concerned about
potential for a hard freeze for interior sections of Hillsborough
County tonight but not sure if durations will be met or not. Will
examine 12z guidance and see if any freeze warnings may need to be
upgraded to hard freeze warnings.

&&
Quoting 364. Patrap:



I base my El Nino fo' cast on increasing CO2 levels..and which way Trumps Hair is parted.

82% success rate too.

: P


I use a Ouija board for my El Nino forecasts.
Is that from this morning's tarot card reading?

nope....they don't do japanese very well...had to use google translate
Link to Siberian Express
Link
This may sound like such a dumb question, but I take care of a stray cat and I live within the freeze warning advisory here in S. FL. Would she be fine or should I take her inside?
Quoting ScooterXX7:
This may sound like such a dumb question, but I take care of a stray cat and I live within the freeze warning advisory here in S. FL. Would she be fine or should I take her inside?
Depends. How well do you like the cat? ;-)
Quoting 372. ScooterXX7:

This may sound like such a dumb question, but I take care of a stray cat and I live within the freeze warning advisory here in S. FL. Would she be fine or should I take her inside?


Bring it inside as well as any Humans unfortunate to be outside without warmth too.

It matta's greatly if you can.

Some shelters should be available


Tampa, FL
The University of Tampa | Change Station
Active Advisory: Wind Chill Advisory, High Surf Advisory, Coastal Hazard Statement, Freeze Warning, Lake Wind Advisory

BOM Queensland @BOM_Qld

The radar signature and forecast winds and track of Severe #CycloneMarcia in MetEye. http://t.co/uFerbbeIoQ http://t.co/OwdMuNJs9N

Quoting 373. Neapolitan:

Depends. How well do you like the cat? ;-)



So many ways dis un could go,

But the cold should be the focus I guess,

Freeze Warning, Lake Wind Advisory
Statement as of 3:16 AM EST on February 19, 2015

... Lake Wind Advisory in effect from 7 am this morning to 6 PM
EST this evening...
... Freeze warning in effect from 1 am to 9 am EST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay area - Ruskin FL has
issued a freeze warning... which is in effect from 1 am to 9 am
EST Friday. A lake Wind Advisory has also been issued. This lake
Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 am this morning to 6 PM EST
this evening. The freeze watch is no longer in effect.

* Tonight and early Friday morning temperatures... several hours of
freezing temperatures between 27 and 32 degrees. These low
temperatures will occur between 10 PM EST tonight and 9 am EST
Friday morning.

* Timing... the lake Wind Advisory is in effect from 7 am EST this
morning until 6 PM EST this evening.


* Winds... northwest winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.


* Impacts... the freezing temperatures late tonight and early
Friday morning will harm temperature sensitive plant and
vegetation. The plants and vegetation should be covered or
brought indoors. Pets should also be brought indoor to protect
them from the cold.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning is issued for 2 or more hours of temperatures
between 27 and 32 over a widespread area.

Residents should cover or move indoors any cold sensitive
plants... and bring pets indoors this evening.

A lake Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast
to be 20 to 29 mph with frequent gusts to near or above gale
force for at least 3 hours. Winds of these magnitudes will
create rough conditions on larger area lakes which could produce
damage to... or flip... small pleasure craft.

Outdoor enthusiasts may wish to postpone lake related activities
until conditions improve.



Quoting 358. ricderr:

concerning el nino........i'm awaiting the mid february plume of models........however....the japanese who preaturely declared el nino....and then recently retracted that.....their model.....sees no el nino spring through fall


Spring from January 2015 2015, summer, autumn outlook
El Nino Forecast: According to the prediction of SINTEX-F model, but in the tropical Pacific Ocean followed by a state of high water temperature, similar to the El Nino mock, it will decay in the summer.



From the Jamstec. Updated February 1st. Trended with all the other models. Also notice the North Atlantic warm pool destroyed and this implies a very cold and stormy east next Winter.

Quoting Naga5000:
For context, the Eastern U.S. is not the globe:

Wait! Do you mean to tell us that just because it's really cold here in the eastern US doesn't mean that it's really cold everywhere else on the planet?! But I thought temperatures were uniform everywhere! I thought that snow and ice here meant snow and ice everywhere! Man, you're blowing my provincial little mind with your "facts" and such!!!
Quoting 362. Sfloridacat5:

Weather.com was using the term.
"Arctic Invasion"

I kind of like that one.
arctic blast is what I call it myself

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 5 sec ago


Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy


-0.6 °F

Feels Like -19 °F







N

13.0

Wind from WNW
Gusts 24.8 mph
Quoting 381. CybrTeddy:




PINHOLE EYE ?

not quite,

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2015 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 21:20:26 S Lon : 150:30:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 945.0mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.3 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : 13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.7T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 68km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.7 degrees






Personally, I think this whole "El Nino" thing is a conspiracy to take money from our pockets and raise world wide insurance rates. It's a scare tactic. The ocean has been there for millions of years.
Extreme Cold Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Bitterly cold arctic air has once again returned to Southern Ontario. Strong and gusty northwest winds will combine with the frigid temperatures to produce extremely cold wind chill values of minus 30 to minus 35 today through Friday morning.

People outdoors should exercise caution and dress appropriately as frostbite on exposed skin is possible in as little as 10 minutes.

Wind chills will slowly improve by Friday afternoon as temperatures moderate somewhat.

Watch for cold related symptoms and complaints which include:
- Respiratory: shortness of breath, wheezing and cough
- Cardiovascular: chest pain and arrhythmias
- Circulation: colour change of finger and toes, pain, numbness and tickling sensation in extremities
- Muscle: pain, stiffness, swelling, restricted movement, weakness
- Skin: itching, pale.
If you experience these symptoms when exposed to the cold, move indoors and begin warming.

Protect yourself.
- On sunny days wear sun glasses, lip balm and sunscreen to protect your skin from UV and keep it moisturized to help prevent windburn.
- Wear a face mask and goggles if you are participating in winter activities such as skiing, snowmobiling and skating to protect your face from frostbite and windburn.
- Keep moving (especially your hands and feet) to keep your blood flowing and maintain your body heat.
- Drink enough fluids, but avoid very cold drinks and consume warm meals regularly.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
This is insane.

Quoting 341. hydrus:

Speaking of fronts near Nicaragua...


Sfc analysis shows cold front down near Nicaragua. Secondary front now passing through central FL. with trough along the eastern half of the US and ridge over the west all the way up to Alaska.



Found this neat climate data for Daytona Beach. Record low max for today is 53 F set back in 1972. currently we are at 50 F. and record low min for tomorrow is 29 F set back in 1958. Forecast low for tomorrow is 28 F. At this point it all comes down to the wind speeds to see if the record is achieved.

Link


Winds aren't dying down yet.
Quoting 386. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is insane.


nice group of three
some bad weather for some folks
Quoting 384. Grothar:

Personally, I think this whole "El Nino" thing is a conspiracy to take money from our pockets and raise world wide insurance rates. It's a scare tactic. The ocean has been there for millions of years.


Do you sleep with your tin foil hat on?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Elev 548 ft 43.77 %uFFFDN, 79.28 %uFFFDW | Updated 5 sec ago


Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy


-0.6 %uFFFDF

Feels Like -19 %uFFFDF







N

13.0

Wind from WNW
Gusts 24.8 mph



People are acting like the Polar Storm from the Movie 2012 is about to hit here.

I've got 54 degrees, NNW wind 22 mph gusting to 28 mph. That's about as cold as it ever gets here during the midday hours.

Quoting 388. tampabaymatt:



Winds aren't dying down yet.
u will have 35 to 45 kmh winds most of the afternoon
Quoting 384. Grothar:

Personally, I think this whole "El Nino" thing is a conspiracy to take money from our pockets and raise world wide insurance rates. It's a scare tactic. The ocean has been there for millions of years.
And sir Grothar has been in existence much longer than that. :P

Hey I'm more concerned about the major hurricane drought for the US. and the complacency that it probably has caused. It's almost like Mother Nature is teasing us for the big one. El Nino? What El Nino, lol, that's a bunch of noise. Hurricane Andrew put that argument to rest. AGW now that is the real thing.
From the Jamstec. Updated February 1st. Trended with all the other models. Also notice the North Atlantic warm pool destroyed and this implies a very cold and stormy east next Winter.


thanx scott.......it shows warm/neutral........so now you have two models that do not show an el nino
Quoting 389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice group of three
some bad weather for some folks


Bad news for the PM too.

He is in wicked denial of Warming SST's.

Best of luck to the affected from Marcia .

She packing a wallop coming in.

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve 1632 UTC



Quoting 392. Sfloridacat5:




People are acting the Polar Storm from the Movie 2012 is about to hit here.

I've got 54 degrees, NNW wind 22 mph gusting to 28 mph. This is about as cold as it gets here during the midday hours.


just some cold air deep arctic cold air
after the sun sets the winds will slack off a bit
Quoting 393. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

u will have 35 to 45 kmh winds most of the afternoon


I'm not sure what's going to magically cause the winds to die down tonight to lead to all of these hard freezes they're projecting for C FL. We'll see, but I'm skeptical of tonight's freeze predictions given the winds are so high.
Quoting 360. Patrap:

Quoting 340. help4u:

PREDECTION;Wunderground will say this is the first warmest Feburary on record!


PREDECTION ?

Feburary?

First rule of innuendo blogging.

Spell-Checka' Breaux...
First rule of denial blogging: Assume the rest of the world is cold because your backyard is cold.
It's currently 25F with a wind chill of 12F here just north of Wilmington, NC. The February sun has melted most of snow where sunlight can reach it. Looks like we'll warm up another 2-3F over the coming hours before falling to around 9 tonight. Wind chills are forecast to be -5F to 5F when I get up for class.
Quoting 400. tampabaymatt:



I'm not sure what's going to magically cause the winds to die down tonight to lead to all of these hard freezes they're projecting for C FL. We'll see, but I'm skeptical of tonight's freeze predictions given the winds are so high.
High Pressure expected to build in and sit right on top of us, causing the winds to calm down.
Quoting 352. washingtonian115:

I said the models were underestimating the cold air.Seems like they are starting to get a good sample.The air almost took my breath away this morning (I mean this literally) .I haven't seen it this cold in late February since 94/96.


I guess perception is a large term and source of variance. I thought this thursday morning was MUCH gentler than last Sunday morning and the dogs didn't mind it either whereas they cringed from the wind on Sunday.
Friday looks worse than today.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just some cold air deep arctic cold air


It would be a nice day to fly a kite at the park for you guys.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is insane.



Heh. Transplant this situation into the Atlantic and the blog would be in full blown anarchy.
I recall how slow the actual 1970-80 period was in the Atlantic, after a tough 60's, Betsy, Camille,Hilda,and others along the N GOM coastal areas.

The MDO is a real thing, and every year still brings the chance for multiple Majors if conditions allow.

Its that multiple impact from majors in multiple cities over the Aug-October Peak CV season that I think of as worse case.

We saw how exodus can occur from the actual, and the feared as well.


2015 may be a dud or may be a Record setter.

Only time will say.



Quoting 400. tampabaymatt:



I'm not sure what's going to magically cause the winds to die down tonight to lead to all of these hard freezes they're projecting for C FL. We'll see, but I'm skeptical of tonight's freeze predictions given the winds are so high.
well sun warms the air which in turn moves the air once the sun is gone its effect goes with it the winds will slack off not to calm but they will be getting there as the hrs after sunset advances on
Quoting 403. GTstormChaserCaleb:

High Pressure expected to build in and sit right on top of us, causing the winds to calm down.


Thank you sir. I was just outside and the winds are really whipping at 12:30 here in Tampa. At this point, it seems hard to believe they'll completely die down and allow for a hard freeze. We shall see.
Quoting 397. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just some cold air deep arctic cold air


When it gets that far south it's often very shallow but still intensely cold. The January 1985 cold of the century in Tallahassee (6F -14C) was not notable at 850mb (-8C.. TLH often sees colder than that at 850mb).
Quoting 406. CybrTeddy:



Heh. Transplant this situation into the Atlantic and the blog would be in full blown anarchy.


Quoting Patrap:
I recall how slow the actual 1970-80 period was in the Atlantic, after a tough 60's, Betsy, Camille,Hilda,and others along the N GOM coastal areas.

The MDO is a real thing, and every year still brings the chance for multiple Majors if conditions allow.

Its that multiple impact from majors in multiple cities over the Aug-October Peak CV season that I think of as worse case.

We saw how exodus can occur from the actual, and the feared as well.


2015 may be a dud or may be a Record setter.

Only time will say.






Years that end in five end in pain, or something like that. 2005, 1995, 1985, 1965, 1955..
I swear, there is a guy on here that looks familiar.





Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
Out HVAC systems in FL are not made for this type of cold, if it ends of verifying. If we get down to the high 20's, my heat will be running all night even set at 68. I hate hearing the aux heat kick in which makes the unit sound like it's about to break.
Quoting 413. Grothar

I swear, there is a guy on here that looks familiar.


Climate Change and Tropical Met communicator of the decade, easily.

If history is doing what I think its doing regardless if 2015 ends up inactive it still needs to be watched.The 1915 hurricane season is a example of this.A inactive season but produced three hurricane landfalls two of which were deadly.The 1915 New Orleans hurricane and the 1915 Galveston hurricane.A 100mph hurricane that made landfall in northern Florida was also observed.
Indeed teddy,

65 was Betsy my 1st Major, then in 85, Elena my 2nd Major, then 05 K my 3rd Major. Bad 20 year trend dere.

22 Major Eyewall Hours from them 3 alone. I have close to 36 total now in others since.
12Z Friday - Center of the Arctic High will be parked right over the Eastern U.S.

Quoting tampabaymatt:
Out HVAC systems in FL are not made for this type of cold, if it ends of verifying. If we get down to the high 20's, my heat will be running all night even set at 68. I hate hearing the aux heat kick in which makes the unit sound like it's about to break.


And I'm thinking of camping tonight!
My kid is slated to go to DC with her Civics Class for Spring Break (from Florida) the third week in March; I am hoping the weather will cooperate for these kids and the teachers/chaparones..........Gonna be tough trying to keep these kids under control (who have never seen snow like this) when the first one throws a snowball.........Really, I am more concerned about the weather as they are slated to go on buses.
Quoting 421. weathermanwannabe:

My kid is slated to go to DC with her Civics Class for Spring Break (from Florida) the third week in March; I am hoping the weather will cooperate for these kids and the teachers/chaparones..........Gonna be tough trying to keep these kids under control (who have never seen snow like this) when the first one throws a snowball.........Really, I am more concerned about the weather as they are slated to go on buses.


The odds of snow on the ground in DC by the third week in March are low. Not zero but low.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
921 AM CST THU FEB 19 2015

.UPDATE...FRIGID TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
MID TN. SUNSHINE WAS HELPING...WITH MID MORNING READINGS "WARMING"
INTO THE 5 TO 10 RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL NOON. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR HOURLY TRENDS...AND
GIVEN FULL SUNSHINE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR 2.

WE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT MORE WINTRY WX FOR MID TN FROM
MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 06Z DATA AND FIRST GLANCE AT
12Z DATA SHOW AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT...
LIKELY DAMAGING...ICE IN THE FORM OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN. THE GOOD
NEWS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THAT TEMPS WILL WARM UP CONSIDERABLY ON
SATURDAY. BUT ANOTHER DOWNER...WE MAY HAVE SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD
PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH THEN. BUCKLE UP...ITS GOING TO BE A BUMPY
RIDE.

Quoting 423. georgevandenberghe:



The odds of snow on the ground in DC by the third week in March are low. Not zero but low.

well don't forget march super storms do happen sometimes
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Thank you sir. I was just outside and the winds are really whipping at 12:30 here in Tampa. At this point, it seems hard to believe they'll completely die down and allow for a hard freeze. We shall see.


If the front came though tonight, the winds would continue to blow.
But as mentioned, high pressure should settle into the area tonight.
In addition, you'll lose the effect of the sun during the night which will cause the winds to slack off, as mentioned by Keeper.

Everything should fall into place late tonight into tomorrow morning.
The citrus growers are hoping we keep a little breeze, but that's probably not going to happen.
In the department of good luck, I made a mistake and didn't bring the frozen fish in from the
car last night.

Well hey.. today.. NOT A PROBLEM :-)


428. redux
is this outbreak caused by a dislocation of the polar vortex? my thinking is it has more to do with the ridging over Alaska...but im not an expert.
current chills my location -20f brrr
When will the Android version be out for the zillions of us out here who are on that platform??
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

One more day then heading back towards normal(44/67).
Quoting 384. Grothar:

Personally, I think this whole "El Nino" thing is a conspiracy to take money from our pockets and raise world wide insurance rates. It's a scare tactic. The ocean has been there for millions of years.


Link

Link

take your pick :)
Quoting 428. redux:

is this outbreak caused by a dislocation of the polar vortex? my thinking is it has more to do with the ridging over Alaska...but im not an expert.

i found it!!!!!....local weatherman told me this was released last year but i've been looking for a couple of weeks to find it.....here's an exceprt concerning the ENSO models........and pattrap......although not listed....your method of co2 and trump hairstyle....did prove to be more accurate than the 7 month lead.......




As one would expect, forecasts made from farther in the past (longer lead times) are less skillful than more recent (short-lead) forecasts, and the 7- month lead forecasts were of little use over this particular period. The dynamical models showed somewhat higher (i.e., better) correlations than the statistical models. The mean absolute error is generally larger for the dynamical models, partly because they averaged too warm during the period, especially when they predicted the warmest SST levels (7). The better correlations of dynamical models were also found in the 11-year period of 2002-2012 (Barnston et al. 2012). Based on the objective performance measures, it is clear that while our ENSO forecasts can be helpful for the coming few months, we have a long way to go in improving their performance and utility beyond that. It is especially hard to predict the timing of ENSO transitions and the correct strength.

Quoting 315. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lake Ontario will not freeze over that I can assure you
Why not, we still have 1 month of cold weather left.
its soo cold even Niagara Falls froze over
cold weather here in east haven,conn only 5F AT 9am this morning
For those of us that are not on the apple cart......... What is the ETA for android version?
When will this be on Android?
Is storm going to be avail on Android??
Is there a way to disengage the sweep? Although it looks nice, it's not realtime and causes a waiting period which is frustrating if you want to switch between tilts in the north-west sector of the scope. If it can't be turned off, how about it starts with the data already in place as a trade off.
What does the rings indicate in the storm tracker?
Thanks
otto