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Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic Brace for Heavy Snow, Sleet, and Ice

By: Bob Henson 4:34 PM GMT on February 16, 2015

A record-setting intrusion of Arctic air blasted through the eastern U.S. over the weekend, setting the stage for a bitter week that will remind many of the infamous cold stretch of January 2014. The biggest concern today and Tuesday is an upper-level impulse moving from Oklahoma to the Atlantic that will pull warm, moist low-level air from the Gulf of Mexico atop the surface-based Arctic air. Snow will stretch from southern Missouri to the Washington, D.C., area, with sleet and freezing rain extending from Arkansas to the Carolinas. At 6:21 am CST, law enforcement in Jasper, AR, reported 2 - 3” of sleet accumulation. The surface layer of cold air will generally remain thick enough to favor sleet over freezing rain, but significant freezing rain could occur in some areas; an ice storm warning has been issued for central Tennessee south of Nashville.

Parts of central Kentucky are getting their heaviest snow in years today, with as much as 15” expected. Washington, D.C., could get 6 - 10” or more of snow on Monday night, heaviest toward the south, although there may be large variations across the D.C. area; a small change in the storm track could bump the totals up or down by a big margin. As with the recent nor’easters, much of the snow in this cold storm will be on the fluffy side, with snow-to-liquid ratios of 15:1 to 20:1 adding to the potential accumulations. Tonight’s D.C. storm will be less intense but far better predicted than the unexpected, paralyzing President’s Day storm of 1979.


Figure 1. Ice forms along the shore of the Manhattan side of the East River in New York on Monday, February 16, after a weekend cold front sent temperatures into the single digits. Image credit: AP Photo/Peter Morgan.

The ferocity of the cold front that swept from the Midwest through the Northeast on Saturday was truly remarkable. As temperatures plummeted, winds gusted above 50 mph in at least nine states, taking down trees and knocking out power to hundreds of thousands. Hot Springs, VA, plunged from 30°F at 3 p.m EST to –1°F by midnight, and Washington’s Reagan National Airport tumbled from 44°F at 5 p.m. to 19°F by 11 p.m. Brief snow squalls and near-whiteout conditions were common just behind the front. One mesonet station near Fisherman’s Island, Virginia, reported a gust to 77 mph.

The powerful winds and cold air originated with an upper-level impulse that dove south from Greenland. Occasionally such an impulse will produce a “tropopause fold,” where a pool of air from very high levels gets pulled downward and tucked beneath the jet stream into the circulation of a developing storm. In this case, the fold was so dramatic over the Midwest that it brought the height of the tropopause down to about 8,000 feet from its typical midlatitude level in winter of around 35,000 feet. Such tropopause folds can help momentum from powerful jet-stream winds aloft to descend to the surface.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Neptune, as captured by the Suomi NPP satellite at 1700 GMT on Sunday, 15 February. The most intense precipitation is clustered at the far right of the image, extending north into southeast Canada (not shown). Image credit: Scott Bachmeier, CIMMS/University of Wisconsin.


The New England snow machine strikes again
It didn't take long for a powerhouse nor'easter to develop as the cold front plowed offshore Saturday night. This cyclone developed an intense but unusual structure, with at least three centers of circulation, each with a central pressure of less than 980 mb. The storm’s unusual evolution and its more easterly track produced less snow than expected in some areas: Portland, Maine, only reported 2.4” from Friday night through Sunday, while the far south and far southeast corners of the state each got more than a foot. Some of the storm’s worst impacts were in Canada’s Maritime Provinces: the wind-prone town of Grant Etang, Nova Scotia, recorded a peak gust of 109 mph on Sunday afternoon.



Figure 2. A puppy on a walk braves the epic accumulations in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on Sunday, February 15. Image credit: wunderphotographer salazar28.


Hitting the dubious snow jackpot once more were the eastern Massachusetts coast and parts of the Maine coast. The 16.2” at Boston's Logan Airport on Saturday and Sunday sent February into the record books as the city's snowiest month, with an amazing 58.5” of snow recorded through February 15 and nearly two weeks left to go. The renowned Blue Hill Observatory, just south of downtown, reported 45” on the ground at the summit of Great Blue Hill on Sunday morning—the greatest snow depth in the observatory’s 130-year history, topping the 43” recorded in March 1969. A CoCoRaHS site in Eastport, Maine, reported 78.5” on the ground Monday morning. Snow depth records are especially significant because techniques for measuring snow depth have changed little over the years, whereas the current practice of recording snowfall every six hours could give a slight edge to recent storms over those from long ago, when once-a-day measurements were more common. (Measuring snow at more frequent intervals leads to higher overall totals, since the snow has less chance to compact.)

Wind and cold champion: Mount Washington
New Hampshire’s Mount Washington Observatory, famed for having “The Worst Weather on Earth,” is living up to its slogan on the holiday created to honor its namesake. Just after midnight Sunday night, the temperature atop Mount Washington was –34°F, with sustained winds of 74 mph and an astoundingly low wind chill of –86°F. By 7:57 am EST, sustained winds had increased to 123 mph. It’s no wonder the mountaintop station issued this warning to would-be adventurers in its daily forecast on Sunday: “All [search and rescue] assistance if needed will have to come from below, as summit staff will not be able to assist in any way, shape, or form. A single injury will potentially put several lives at risk not just your own.”

Coldest February on record?
On Monday morning, Erie, PA, tied its all-time record low of –18°F, and Buffalo dipped to –10°F, its coldest temperature since January 6, 1996. Many eastern cities face a uncommonly frigid stretch for late February, especially as a second blast of Arctic air arrives later this week. Dozens of daily records could tumble, and some locations--especially mid-South locations with snow cover--will be in a good position to set records for lowest temperature so late in the winter. The currently predicted lows for Friday of –8°F in Lexington, KY, and –4°F in Nashville, TN, would do the trick. It will be tougher to set monthly lows, given that February is the region’s coldest month of the year. Still, this week could end up as the coldest of the 21st century for millions of people. With no sign of letup in the cold for at least a week, several Northeastern cities and states are within reach of their coldest February in a century or more of recordkeeping. Three examples:



Bob Henson



Figure 3. Thomas Mitchell took this shot in his neighbors’ kitchen in Beverly, Massachusetts on Sunday, February 15: “It's not just stuck to the windows, the snow bank is higher than the windows.” Image credit: wunderphotographer thomashmitchellcom.



Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Heavy although not quite as heavy in the last couple minutes.
Warm air advection FTL.

2.6 inches here
Quoting 502. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Warm air advection FTL.


Quoting 500. VAbeachhurricanes:

Heavy stuff on the way, hopefully some lightning in it.




That could very well be sleet as warm air in the 850mb-700mb layer is invading southern Virginia at the moment. You can see how that heavy precip is south of the 850mb-700mb thickness contour.

Orlando might finally have a freeze!!!!
98P
509. 882MB
98P really organizing and getting its act together. Won't surprise me to see this named later on today. What an active week ahead for Australia with Tropical cyclone Lam, and 98P. Both systems started as a very strong monsoon trough with 2 low level vortices, one becoming Lam and the other 98P.

Tropical cyclone Lam



98P



Quoting georgevandenberghe:

Brandywine MD. Just north of Waldorf. Also 30 miles from home.

First world complaint. You have to drive thirty miles to RIDE A HORSE!


What No Way. 30 Miles to ride a horse? Back in the 70s it would have been a walk to Georges house or his grandfathers farm. Even in the mid 80s I would have only had to walk a little over two miles to cherry hill farms to pick fresh strawberries that I would have used to tame my horse.LOL All that 25 Min South of DC in Prince Georges County off 301. Somehow I feel like my grandfather telling me about how it was way back when. Kinda fun to come full circle.
Quoting 497. sar2401:

Yeah, it will be a little nippy but I think it clears earlier than forecast. I'll bet Mobile sees a high in the mid-50's, maybe even upper 50's if it clears before noon. I think the chances for sleet are so small as to be about invisible though.


I highly doubt that, model 850 mb progs are much too cold for upper 50's for highs in mobile tomorrow, but I agree, frozen precip seems pointless unlikely, precip will clear before any appreciably cold enough air arrives for frozen stuff.
Quoting 882MB:
98P really organizing and getting its act together. Won't surprise me to see this named later on today. What an active week ahead for Australia with Tropical cyclone Lam, and 98P. Both systems started as a very strong monsoon trough with 2 low level vortices, one becoming Lam and the other 98P.

Tropical cyclone Lam



98P




Its hard for me to see the land definitions in that loop of Cyclone Lam. Is that just North of the Queensland Northern coast? I should do some research. I love that area of the World.
If things don't start ramping up soon. We're not gonna reach our forecasted totals.
Quoting Drakoen:
If things don't start ramping up soon. We're not gonna reach our forecasted totals.



What does your regional radar look like at the moment? Please share!
Quoting 506. opal92nwf:

Orlando might finally have a freeze!!!!


We're expecting highs only in the low 40's and lows in the low 20's here in Tallahassee and add gusty winds to the mix for good measure. I like cool/cold weather in October through December because it's a nice refreshing change from heat after long Florida summers.

However, I like living in Florida for a reason, and up here in north Florida, while the sun is strong enough to keep most days still nice and relatively mild compared to up north as far as high temperatures with cold front events, we have numerous mornings that are quite cool in the 30's requiring a jacket. Growing up in Central Florida, I had to get used to that, and like I said, unlike some Floridians, I don't expect to wear flip flops and short all winter, in fact I'm creeped out that people still want muggy warm weather in the middle of winter permitting flip flops lol. I only like wearing flip flops at the beach and around th house, would feel embarrassed wearing them anywhere else even in July lol.

Besides that though, despite growing up in Central Florida only a couplw miles from the beach, I can adjust to cold weather and like a cool change from the heat. But I hate really cold weather, true winter, like up north. Even the cold down here wears on me after a while.

Because of this, I am done with cold weather by this point in February, I'm not looking forward for Wed-Thursday when we will struggle just to hit 40 degrees and mornings well below freezing with gusty winds.

I can't wait until spring break, providing there won't be another major trough, Central Florida can get pretty dang cold even in March if a trough is strong enough, too cold for the beach anyway.

That's the funny thing, it's still too cold for the beach most days in the northern half of Florida during college spring break schedules, and definitely always too cold in the water until April or May.
Quoting 514. QueensWreath:




What does your regional radar look like at the moment? Please share!


How much sleet did 62901IL see yesterday? All of that heavy sleet was way off to my south, though a heavy snowband set up just to my north so they got a couple more inches of snow than i did. I got around 3 but it was real easy to shovel because it was dry and powdery.
Quoting 482. Dakster:

That low or whatever it is, is bringing HOT moist air up to Alaska. Almost hit 50F today and raining...


lol, you're experiencing Florida-like winter weather in Alaska, who would have thought?

Never underestimate weather's ability to bring weather from compeltely different climate zones for brief periods.
Best banding seems to be over Northern MD at the moment.
520. 882MB
Quoting 512. QueensWreath:




Its hard for me to see the land definitions in that loop of Cyclone Lam. Is that just North of the Queensland Northern coast? I should do some research. I love that area of the World.


Yes my friend, here's a better image. We have 1 in the gulf of Carpentaria which is Tropical cyclone Lam between Queensland and Northern Territory, and 98P to the NW of Queensland. And yes Queensland is a very awesome place, from its beautiful rainforest's, to its incredible coral reefs.

Quoting Drakoen:





Looks like the worst will be winding down in a few/ several hours. Is this system expected to intensify off shore and bring squalls later? It doesnt seem to have that shape at the moment.
Quoting 521. QueensWreath:




Looks like the worst will be winding down in a few/ several hours. Is this system expected to intensify off shore and bring squalls later? It doesnt seem to have that shape at the moment.


It will be on going through the morning hours as the low forms off the Virginia coast. The low is currently down in Georgia.
Quoting 882MB:


Yes my friend, here's a better image. We have 1 in the gulf of Carpentaria which is Tropical cyclone Lam between Queensland and Northern Territory, and 98P to the NW of Queensland. And yes Queensland is a very awesome place, from its beautiful rainforest's, to its incredible coral reefs.



Thanks so much. That helps me see the big picture of what is going on. Thank you for sharing. I would not have seen that if I hadnt been on WU.
Quoting Drakoen:


It will be on going through the morning hours as the low forms off the Virginia coast. The low is currently down in Georgia.


Thanks Drakoen.
about 55 knots now..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE LAM, CATEGORY TWO (13U)
2:00 PM CST February 17 2015
========================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Lam, Category Two located at 11.6S 139.1E or 260 kilometers east northeast of Nhulunbuy and 390 kilometers northeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gust of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield early on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 170 kilometers per hour may develop between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield later on Wednesday if the cyclone takes a more westward track.

GALES may extend west to Maningrida and south to Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt during Wednesday or Thursday.

Coastal residents between Elcho Island and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End from later today.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Elcho Island to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Maningrida to Elcho Island and Cape Shield to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:34 PM EST February 17 2015
===================================

An active monsoon trough extends across Cape York Peninsula and the northern Coral Sea. A tropical low is located in the Coral Sea along the monsoon trough and well off the Queensland east coast. This low may develop in strength over the coming days while initially moving further east, before taking on a more southeasterly track from Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Wednesday: MODERATE
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE
Long-time lurker here, just moved to Raleigh, NC from ABQ, NM.

The weather show is pretty much over here in Raleigh now, with the city left as a skating rink. We had maybe an hour of light rain that froze onto vegetation and laid down a nice layer of black ice on pavement. The change-over to frozen pellets happened quickly. So, at least here, no ice storm to speak of. The sound that ice pellets make falling on iced-over holly leaves is unworldly, like the tinkling of many many tiny chandaliers.

It looks like the main story here will be the drivers. Lots of winding roads + hills, rear-wheel drive trucks, and (here in a college town) young drivers with little experience with snow/ice. During an hour walk around sunset, I saw one truck struggling to accelerate from standstill up a hill, and another truck pass a slow-moving sedan on a 2-lane road that subsequently almost skidded through a red light into a major intersection. And all this before the ice started falling!

Here's hoping everyone stays home for a few days...
Up to 3 in. (1:05am EST)

Heavy Snow
Yes, finally anything that falls in the morning shall fall as snow even if it's just a few flurries. :)

Quoting 487. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

pacific maritime flow from south its nice got another warm spot on the other side too pinching off the cold forcing it down off the ne half of north America




So awesome. California is not getting its snowpack

/s.

So bad the locals are already preparing to talk about water rationing like last summer
Quoting CraigsIsland:


So awesome. California is not getting its snowpack

/s.

So bad the locals are already preparing to talk about water rationing like last summer


New England will gladly hand you some of theirs. If only it were that simple.
Quoting 531. wxgeek723:



New England will gladly hand you some of theirs. If only it were that simple.


This could be really bad for CA.
This is a very fine snow I'm getting now in Jersey. Some of the best dendrites I've ever seen.
Substantial amount of sleet/mix precip pushing into southern and eastern Virginia as the 850mb-700mb thickness 1540m contour surges northward. That will cut into their totals.



Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE LAM, CATEGORY TWO (13U)
5:01 PM CST February 17 2015
========================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Lam, Category Two (984 hPa) located at 11.6S 138.8E or 230 kilometers east northeast of Nhulunbuy and 365 kilometers northeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gust of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
75 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westwards direction before turning towards the southwest from late Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield early on Wednesday, extending west to Milingimbi and Maningrida later in the day.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 170 km/h may develop over the Gove Peninsula on Wednesday afternoon. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend further west to Elcho Island from late Wednesday, possibly extending south to Cape Shield if the cyclone takes a more southerly track.

GALES may extend west to Goulburn Island or south to Numbulwar, including Groote Eylandt, overnight Wednesday or during Thursday, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Elcho Island and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End from Wednesday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 11.5S 138.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 11.4S 136.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 11.9S 136.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4) northeast of Elcho Island
72 HRS 13.5S 135.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) southwest of Cape Shield

Additional Information
===================
Position based on 17/05:32Z MTSAT imagery assisted by 17/0336Z AMSR2 pass and Gove Airport radar. Past movement has been slowly towards the west.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Lam has remained good through the day, with a ragged eye feature visible at 17/0130Z. Deep convection has eased slightly in the last few hours, but is expected to re-intensify overnight. DT has been difficult to assign as cloud features have become less well defined, ranging from 3.0 based on a 0.6 wrap in visible imagery to 4.0 based on a Dark Grey embedded center in the infrared imagery. MET=3.5 based on standard development, while PAT gives 3.5-4.0. FT=3.5 based on MET and PAT, while CI is held at 4.0.

Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to continue moving slowly west in the short term, closely balanced between the main steering influences of the ridge to the south and the developing monsoon to the north. After approximately 36 hours, Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to turn to the south southwest due to a weakening of the ridge to the south and interactions with an upper trough.

Numerical weather prediction output is remaining broadly consistent from run to run, with good agreement on the timing of the turn to the south southwest between models. There still remains significant variation between models in the speed of the initial westward movement. Intensity in the longer term largely depends on the location of landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Maningrida to Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Goulburn Island to Maningrida and Cape Shield to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506-VAZ054-171645-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150217T1700Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON. ..
COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH
345 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TEENS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH
VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL
MAKE TRAVELING DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
Florence, SC 3:30 AM EST. 31F, temp has dropped from 35F at 10 PM last night. Pouring here. Light glaze on some branches. Kids probably will have delayed opening. I will go to work later today after it warms up. Probably will finish off as sleet, maybe snow later this morning. We got off easy.

Looks like Raleigh, NC northward was mainly sleet and snow. I'm guessing a line from Greenville, SC to Charlotte to Fayetteville, NC is suffering through a terrible ice storm this morning. I can find one road report out of Greenville at 1:20 AM that simply says "trees down all over the county." All the other reports were from well before midnight.

Hopefully it warms up quickly today because if the winds pick up before the ice melts, that will only serve to worsen what is probably a very bad situation.
Quoting 515. Jedkins01:



We're expecting highs only in the low 40's and lows in the low 20's here in Tallahassee and add gusty winds to the mix for good measure. I like cool/cold weather in October through December because it's a nice refreshing change from heat after long Florida summers.

However, I like living in Florida for a reason, and up here in north Florida, while the sun is strong enough to keep most days still nice and relatively mild compared to up north as far as high temperatures with cold front events, we have numerous mornings that are quite cool in the 30's requiring a jacket. Growing up in Central Florida, I had to get used to that, and like I said, unlike some Floridians, I don't expect to wear flip flops and short all winter, in fact I'm creeped out that people still want muggy warm weather in the middle of winter permitting flip flops lol. I only like wearing flip flops at the beach and around th house, would feel embarrassed wearing them anywhere else even in July lol.

Besides that though, despite growing up in Central Florida only a couplw miles from the beach, I can adjust to cold weather and like a cool change from the heat. But I hate really cold weather, true winter, like up north. Even the cold down here wears on me after a while.

Because of this, I am done with cold weather by this point in February, I'm not looking forward for Wed-Thursday when we will struggle just to hit 40 degrees and mornings well below freezing with gusty winds.

I can't wait until spring break, providing there won't be another major trough, Central Florida can get pretty dang cold even in March if a trough is strong enough, too cold for the beach anyway.

That's the funny thing, it's still too cold for the beach most days in the northern half of Florida during college spring break schedules, and definitely always too cold in the water until April or May.
Yes, very true that. I have long wondered whose brilliant idea it was to market Panama City, FL as a Spring Break mecca in March?? That never happened before about the 1990s, as I recall. But if any college student from a Northern university is expecting it to be hot and with warm Gulf waters suitable for swimming in late winter or early Spring, they are always going to be bitterly disappointed. Panama City is not Fort Lauderdale and the latter is several hundred miles to the southeast with the gulf stream passing just offshore to the east. That makes a huge difference in terms of climate and normal temperature ranges.
Quoting 537. HaoleboySurfEC:

Florence, SC 3:30 AM EST. 31F, temp has dropped from 35F at 10 PM last night. Pouring here. Light glaze on some branches. Kids probably will have delayed opening. I will go to work later today after it warms up. Probably will finish off as sleet, maybe snow later this morning. We got off easy.

Looks like Raleigh, NC northward was mainly sleet and snow. I'm guessing a line from Greenville, SC to Charlotte to Fayetteville, NC is suffering through a terrible ice storm this morning. I can find one road report out of Greenville at 1:20 AM that simply says "trees down all over the county." All the other reports were from well before midnight.

Hopefully it warms up quickly today because if the winds pick up before the ice melts, that will only serve to worsen what is probably a very bad situation.


It's still pure ice pellets here in Raleigh. Very happy to be north of that line, grateful we can curl up at home today with power / lights / internet and watch the show. It looks like most of the public schools have already announced closure today. Most colleges are listing 4 hour delays, but seeing as the ground is frozen solid from several days in the teens and 20s, the forecast calls for overcast 20s before noon, and southern cities aren't known for rapid road de-icing, I'm having a hard time imagining anyone going to school tomorrow around here.

Drive safe!
Quoting 538. FLWaterFront:

Yes, very true that. I have long wondered whose brilliant idea it was to market Panama City, FL as a Spring Break mecca in March?? That never happened before about the 1990s, as I recall. But if any college student from a Northern university is expecting it to be hot and with warm Gulf waters suitable for swimming in late winter or early Spring, they are always going to be bitterly disappointed. Panama City is not Fort Lauderdale and the latter is several hundred miles to the southeast with the gulf stream passing just offshore to the east. That makes a huge difference in terms of climate and normal temperature ranges.


To be fair, cold is relative after a few drinks, plus a few more.
I went to spring break in Panama City in, er, 1999? The weather was nice enough, but I can assure you that the ocean water temperature wasn't anyone's concern :)

Honestly, I'd guess that a confluence of wide sandy beaches, cheap real estate, and "relaxed" local law enforcement is what cemented the Gulf Coast as a rite-of-passage destination.
Both images are from ~2 hours ago:





Surf off Town Beach in #Nhulunbuy being whipped up by #CycloneLam - thanks Dave Suter for pic - @abcnewsNT
31F, Florence county, 70 miles to east it is 60F at Myrtle Beach. Wild. Line of frozen precipitation migrating southward toward I-20.
Last ice storm post for me - here's links to a few twitter hashtags for the SE: photos, road and accident reports, media updates, etc.
it will be similar to the January 1994 cold wave.
545. vis0
From old comment::
CREDIT:: me
SUBJECT:: (CORRECTION, IT WAS NOT AT 1st Ave. and
14th st. as to the area of that distant billowing steam cloud, IT WAS ~2 times FURTHER!!! 5-7 miles. in
Queens, NY WOW! see the image
credited to "AP Photo/Peter Morgan" in Mr.
Hensons blogbyte, Quote Mr. Henson  that circle i added is the same plume. Its not just the
size but how it was regenerating as if a mushroom cloud. ) the VID was 3 days
before the image buit thats the same area of billowing steam. i lowered KB &
added the crappy highlitghting, see/read Mr. Henson's blogbyte above for quality
image. 

 Billowing steam about 4-5 miles
on the East side of NYC (1st ave to the next further east, Ave
A. & 14th st. ),
as this was recorded at 20150213 11:09:50 EST from
8th ave *14th st. (had 60lbs of groceries so was wobbling as i held 5 bags in
one hand, another 4 bags in other hand and camera in my mouth...TALENT! wheres
the Gong show when ya need it.
Steam cloud was much bigger (~1.6 x) but
missed the first ~5 secs as teeth kept hitting pause button. Seen this steam
cloud bigger a few times which means even colder LOW air was arriving.

Hope it was a steam cloud as that is the area where the infamous Con
Ed power plant
that conked out from all the salt water Sandy pushed up
through Manhattans sewer/infrastructuress system throughout the LES ("Lower East
Side", as gangs called it in the 1960s/70s, stuck as its official NeighborHOOD
name) of Manahattan.
Quoting sar2401:
I mean, really? This is not why Civil Emergency Messages were invented. Giant tank car fires, Martian invasions...fine. Because some emergency managers think it might be hazardous on the roads?

Geez...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
948 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
INDIVIDUAL ALABAMA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA INCLUDING...MARION...WINSTON...LAMAR...FAYETTE...
WALKER...PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA...SUMTER...GREENE.. .HALE...PERRY...
BIBB...SHELBY...JEFFERSON...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOS A...CLAY...
RANDOLPH...CALHOUN...CLEBURNE...CHEROKEE...ETOWAH ...BLOUNT...AND
ST. CLAIR COUNTIES.

NUMEROUS ROADWAYS...BOTH MAJOR THOROUGHFARES AND LESSER TRAVELED
ROADWAYS...MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT AND IN SOME CASES
IMPASSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. THESE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
REQUEST THAT TRAVEL BE LIMITED TO EMERGENCIES ONLY FOR YOUR SAFETY
AND THE SAFETY OF FIRST RESPONDERS.
I hear you. Just because a few dozen county emergency managers want to keep the roads open for fire trucks and ambulances is no reason they should tell the public that, especially not if they're going to "crank off" some insomniacs watching after-hours cable TV by doing so. I mean, who do they think they are? The nerve of some people!

;)
How much snow did DC get?
Link to NBCnews Washington D.C. with the snowfall totals.

Link
Snowfall totals across the D.C. area from NBCnews Washington D.C.

District of Columbia
National Zoo - 4
Thomas Circle - 3.8
White House - 2.9
Maryland
Allegany County
Eckhart Mines - 2.2
Frostburg - 2.0
Anne Arundel County
Severna Park - 3.4
Pasadena - 2.5
Davidsonville - 2.2
Odenton - 2.1
Crownsville - 2.0
Annapolis - 2.0
South Gate - 1.5
Baltimore County
Dundalk - 3
Long Green - 1.2
Baltimore City
Arlington - 2.3
Pimlico - 2.2
Baltimore - 1.7
Calvert County
Dowell - 4
Huntingtown - 2.5
Carroll County
Lineboro - 2.0
Millers - 1.4
Gaither - 1.3
Westminster - 1.3
Charles County
Swan Point - 5.0
Dentsville - 4.8
Frederick County
New Market - 1.5
Harford County
Bel Air - 0.8
Howard County
Columbia - 1.9
Simpsonville - 1.8
Gaither - 1.7
Montgomery County
Takoma Park - 2.6
Bethesda - 2.5
Norbeck - 2
White Oak - 1.9
Garrett Park - 1.9
Damascus - 1.8
Laytonsville - 1.8
Prince George's County
Cheverly - 3.8
Oxon Hill - 3.1
College Park - 2
Greenbelt - 1.8
St. Marys County
Maddox - 5
Saint Inigoes - 4
Park Hall - 3.5
Washington County
Halfway - 1.5

Virginia
Albemarle County
Westmoreland - 4.5
Charlottesville - 4.5
Arlington County
Bailey's Crossroads - 2.8
Augusta County
Greenville - 5.0
Stuarts Draft - 4.0
Fishersville - 3.8
Alexandria
Alexandria - 4.6
Charlottesville
Charlottesville - 4.5
Fredericksburg
Fredericksburg - 4.2
Harrisonburg
Harrisonburg - 3
Manassas
Manassas - 3.5
Staunton
Staunton - 6
Waynesboro
Waynesboro - 4
Clarke County
Berryville - 3.5
Culpeper County
Culpeper - 5.4
Fairfax County
West Springfield - 5
Centreville - 5
Lincolnia - 4
Hybla Valley - 3.5
Reston - 3
Vienna - 2.5
Herndon - 2.5
Fauquier County
Marshall - 3
Frederick County
Stephens City - 2.6
Loudoun County
Purcellville - 2.4
Hughesville - 2
Nelson County
Elma - 6.2
Roseland - 3.5
Prince William County
Dumfries - 5
Haymarket - 3.8
Spotsylvania County
Dunavant - 5.5
Stafford County
Roseville - 4.8
Sealston - 3.8
Quoting luvtogolf:
How much snow did DC get?


Definitely looks a lot less than expected. People were talking about up to 12" and it looks like
3-4" in the city with higher amounts in Virginia to the south.
About 2" here in SC PA, but at least its white!
I've got dropping temps, wind picking up and freezing rain. Going to work after 10AM. Luckily it looks like it will end here before I pick up anything but a light glaze. Others north of me not so lucky. They are still accumulating ice and stiff WNW winds to follow.
My sister works for the school district in Richmond Va.
They got between 5-6" in the city area. Forecast called for 8-12".
Local meteorologist blamed the lower than expected snow totals on sleet mixing in with the snow.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Definitely looks a lot less than expected. People were talking about up to 12" and it looks like
3-4" in the city with higher amounts in Virginia to the south.


I see the totals on #549. Definitely an under performer for DC.
555. vis0
toot # 6, this yr alone i'm 6 fer 6. (would pat myself in the back but as SAR2401 might say "at my age THAT'D get me a stiff medical bill and an arm in a shoulder sling for 2 weeks".
Cmmntd on SAR2401 last night, ~9pm eastern time to 'look out for precipitation in ~30 mins' (after posting cmmnt) and what happened ~0130 to 0200 am UTC or ~30 mins later 0930 to 1000pm EST . not much but precip. none the LESS, when most said nothing was to fall. Some might say it was inevitable, i did not see any radar nor SAT img. till ~6am or 8 hrs later, WHY? Been uploading 2 VIDs & downloading 12 hrs worth of Sat. imagery (most every 30 min images,  3 satellite imagary every 15 min images) here an every  15 min SAT of USofA wx from Feb 8th till 16th 2015.
http://youtu.be/tDxJp_IbXIs (996x748) (missing frames causing jump or uptick in animation speed)

one of the every 15 mins imagery) from 7 Satellites servers on 56 k which is very slow.


(worst toot ever was my 2014 TS prediction let my ego decide the amount, my prediction was disgraceful)
light snow in east haven
Sunny, with a high near 55. West wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 39. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 19.


Poor Flowers started blooming around here thinking spring started early. The poor things are probably already massacred from this past weekends cold blast. If not, this weeks one will even more. It's not too often you see highs in the upper 30's and lows in the teens in Florida in the later half of February, good grief, Batman.
Its not a all around bust.I got 6.6 inches of snow.Which is right in the range of 4-8 that was predicted.
Quoting 506. opal92nwf:

Orlando might finally have a freeze!!!!


I found so far that my house runs a few degrees under the forecast pretty consistently, but the forecast has also gone back and forth a few times this week. Just yesterday it was a low of 36, so we'll see. Should be the coldest night of the winter regardless.
I am somewhat confused how this year's and last year's weather fits into the Global Warming doomsday scenerio.
Good mornin' all.
If anyone who is taking the WU survey is interested in bringing back the sidebar that shows who is posting what and where, please mention it. It was a great way to follow where your friends were hangin' out.

The last couple of weeks have been as beautiful of weather as the Keys ever see!!! No wonder there are so many folks down here right now that you can hardly get around. 72 & sunny right now. Looks like we're heading into the low 50's midweek though.
Quoting 560. Svfortuna:

I am somewhat confused how this year's and last year's weather fits into the Global Warming doomsday scenerio.


Now you've done it!!!
Quoting 559. Naga5000:



I found so far that my house runs a few degrees under the forecast pretty consistently, but the forecast has also gone back and forth a few times this week. Just yesterday it was a low of 36, so we'll see. Should be the coldest night of the winter regardless.


Thursday Night looks cold indeed with my low expected to reach 32. Well see if it happens.
Ouch! The ASO period of the CFSv2 now suggest Strong El-Nino along with the Euro. This is going to be interesting as we go thru Spring as all the models are trending upwards every week in some cases dramatic rises across the Enso regions come this Summer.

CFSv2
Quoting 564. tampabaymatt:




Good Morning Matt HRRR models showing .75" to 1" for us tonight. Well see as the sun is out here for the moment.
Quoting 560. Svfortuna:

I am somewhat confused how this year's and last year's weather fits into the Global Warming doomsday scenerio.


Well, for starters there is no "global warming doomsday scenario" and framing it as such isn't likely to get you many pleasant responses. Some would certainly argue you were simply trolling the blog for attention and trying to disrupt the current conversation going on, especially considering your short, but quite visible anti-science posting history.

Now, if you are wondering how weather events fit into climate change, there's something that can help. This is called winter, winter still happens when the world is warmer. In fact, in a warmer world the atmosphere is capable of holding more water vapor. While that warmer world may prevent some areas from experiencing snow as it instead falls as rain, areas that are still cold enough to receive snow could see greatly increased precipitation events. The recent peer reviewed science has noted the trends in increased large precipitation events. As for the colder than normal air, the pattern has displaced colder air from it's normal places.

Per a blogger, Alaska was seeing 50 degrees and rain while the East coast was getting hammered with snow and ice. Out west you are seeing the one of the lowest snow packs ever recorded. The Arctic is currently running above average temperature wise with some areas as high as 4 - 6 degrees C above normal. And the ocean of the East coast where all this snow has been happening is in some places as much as 11 degrees C warmer than average. Is this weather pattern a trend? It is too soon to tell, but yes the past 2 winters have been cold in the East and Northeast while the globe has been warmer than average, to put in into perspective, despite the bitter cold in some parts of the U.S., January was the second warmest on record globally. Sometimes it's hard to remove yourself from the local perspective of the U.S. and think larger.
Hot off the press from the BOM agency. Notice the wording beyond May.

Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral
Issued on 17 February 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00


Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean are neutral, having eased away from near El Niño levels over the past two months. However several models suggest some renewed warming may occur beyond May.
The majority of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators are currently within neutral bounds. Including temperatures at and beneath the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean; cloudiness near the Date Line; trade wind strength; and tropical rainfall patterns. In contrast, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, though predominantly due to regional tropical weather patterns rather than broadscale shifts in pressure. It is likely the SOI will rise again in the coming week. It is typical for ENSO events to decay during the late summer to early autumn period, consistent with the recent shift away from near El Niño conditions.
Model outlooks made in the first quarter of the year tend to be less reliable than those made at other times. That said, all international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to remain warm, but within the neutral range, until at least May. Beyond that time, outlooks favour warm-neutral or El Niño-like ocean temperatures.
BOM shows Moderate El-Nino this Summer/Fall.

More from BOM

ENSO neutral, though tropical Pacific Ocean likely to remain warm

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral ENSO state, with near normal temperatures in the eastern Pacific, although warmer than normal temperatures remain in the western Pacific near the Date Line.
Most of the surveyed models forecast tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures to be above average, but remaining within the neutral range until at least May. By July, however, six of the eight models suggest a renewed warming, with the NINO3.4 index likely to reach El Niño thresholds. Forecasts spanning February to May (the traditional ENSO transition period) generally have lower accuracy than forecasts made at other times of year, therefore these forecasts should be treated with caution.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little impact on Australian climate from December to April due to the natural position of the monsoon trough at this time of year.

Geesh. Look at the Euro!

Quoting 566. StormTrackerScott:



Good Morning Matt HRRR models showing .75" to 1" for us tonight. Well see as the sun is out here for the moment.


The sun is out here as well. If we get some daytime heating before the line moves in, I wouldn't be surprised to see some thunderstorms in C FL later today.
Quoting 561. ChillinInTheKeys:

Good mornin' all.
If anyone who is taking the WU survey is interested in bringing back the sidebar that shows who is posting what and where, please mention it. It was a great way to follow where your friends were hangin' out.

The last couple of weeks have been as beautiful of weather as the Keys ever see!!! No wonder there are so many folks down here right now that you can hardly get around. 72 & sunny right now. Looks like we're heading into the low 50's midweek though.

If only I had thought of that when I took the survey...

Bit envious of your weather. 31 here in Baton Rouge, had a high yesterday of 70, only expect to see upper 40s today.
With all of this I wouldn't expect much at all from this year Hurricane Season so my numbers are 8 5 2. Could even be in the 6 to 7 named storm range if trends continue.
575. bwi
Ended up with about six inches 10 mile NE of DC. Those nbc news totals don't seem right.
Quoting 568. StormTrackerScott:

Hot off the press from the BOM agency. Notice the wording beyond May.

Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral
Issued on 17 February 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00


Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean are neutral, having eased away from near El Niño levels over the past two months. However several models suggest some renewed warming may occur beyond May.
The majority of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators are currently within neutral bounds. Including temperatures at and beneath the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean; cloudiness near the Date Line; trade wind strength; and tropical rainfall patterns. In contrast, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, though predominantly due to regional tropical weather patterns rather than broadscale shifts in pressure. It is likely the SOI will rise again in the coming week. It is typical for ENSO events to decay during the late summer to early autumn period, consistent with the recent shift away from near El Niño conditions.
Model outlooks made in the first quarter of the year tend to be less reliable than those made at other times. That said, all international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to remain warm, but within the neutral range, until at least May. Beyond that time, outlooks favour warm-neutral or El Niño-like ocean temperatures.

You're likely to get dogged by a couple of members, but I have to admire your optimism, enthusiasm and tenacity on this subject :)

Quoting 575. bwi:

Ended up with about six inches 10 mile NE of DC. Those nbc news totals don't seem right.
There was a significant dry slot extending north and south of DC and points west southwest to the Apps from about 9pm through the course of the night.  From those points east, they received much more sustained forcing throughout the event.   DC was literally right on the dividing line.
Rainfall forecast for FL this summer could be similar to what we experienced in Summer 2014 with most of the convection favoring the easterside of FL due to a persistent westerly flow which is common during El-Nino. This may not bode well for SW FL.

Good morning everyone, the cold has reached NW Florida! Went to sleep last night the temperature was 67, now it's 37 and I don't think we'll see a high above 50 today!
Quoting 572. LAbonbon:


If only I had thought of that when I took the survey...

Bit envious of your weather. 31 here in Baton Rouge, had a high yesterday of 70, only expect to see upper 40s today.


You can always send them a note through the "Feedback" link at the very bottom of this page.
Quoting 576. LAbonbon:


You're likely to get dogged by a couple of members, but I have to admire your optimism, enthusiasm and tenacity on this subject :)


That's fine because I believe something is going to occur I stay persistent. I know El-Nino busted last year but these latest PDO values are off the charts which is a very good indication that we will have El-Nino this year. You can't have PDO values of 2.2 to 2.6 and expect things to go La Nina to me this is a sign that the atmosphere is gearing up for atleast a moderate El-Nino this Fall. Also the throw in the SOI index which has been at El-Nino levels since last Summer.
582. vis0

Quoting 264. sar2401:

Lucky you. Still nothing here.

I wonder if some meteorologists actually look at those maps or if they are just auto posted to the server? I can just imagine the conversation if they do look at them -

"How's she look, Harvey?"

"Perfectly clear to me, Fred. Post that sucker!"

And why do they still use those 1950's weather map symbols on a 2015 map? Those were part of my everyday life for decades and I still have to keep a legend on the computer to remember them. It can't be just because the bosses are old and like those hieroglyphics. I'm at least as old as any active boss there and I've always hated those things. They have all those bright young people working there now who, I'm sure, must know about things like callout boxes to clean a mess like that up. Cripes. vis0 posts more readable charts than that, and he's describing some kind of physics that only exists in his fertile imagination, as far as we know.

Geez...

i think its best to maintain a format that allows one to research and compare records easily w/o having to update what the new symbol meant compared to the older / original symbols. THAT SAID if NOAA can update EVERY SINGLE MAP they have from the very first, i'd do so every 50 yrs. This way every other generations of people can better use what they presently know. EXAMPLE in 100 yrs we'll be dead BUT those using wxmaps will have wxsymbols that float in the air and if they'd have to go back to using a pencil & paper or old graphics their left brain lobe might explode.

¿Did SAR2401 just say my mind is full of "cow excrement" (fertile-as in fertilizer), ahh that's the nicest thing anyone's said to me w/o attaching the upside down exclamation finger to it. (oh wait i cannot see SAR if i could??? ...Ö
Ö(reaction) apology during my reaction i accidentally recorded my 866 DOM call)
PS- updating my blog's comment #44 or #45 (blogbyte:: ml-d reset PAGE)  by late afternoon to add part B of Hawk?, flying overhead. 

BTW, NO ES physics , es  GALACSICS (SAR2401 might reply with "whatever you call it, es fertile" :-P) ...yes i've gotten use to talking to myself.
Quoting Svfortuna:
I am somewhat confused...
If it's any consolation, where climate change is concerned, you're not alone. (See: Fox, Viewers of)
584. MahFL
Quoting 560. Svfortuna:

I am somewhat confused how this year's and last year's weather fits into the Global Warming doomsday scenerio.


In other places, eg, western USA, it's warmer than normal, now do you understand ?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE LAM, CATEGORY TWO (13U)
11:01 PM CST February 17 2015
========================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Lam, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 11.5S 138.5E or 200 kilometers east northeast of Nhulunbuy Airport and 350 kilometers northeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gust of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westwards direction before turning towards the southwest into Thursday.
Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop in coastal areas between Cape Wessel and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy early on Wednesday before extending west to Goulburn Island and possibly south to Groote Eylandt later in the day.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 170 km/h may develop over the Gove Peninsula and northeast Wessel islands from midday Wednesday. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend further west to Milingimbi from late Wednesday, or possibly south to Cape Shield depending on the track the cyclone takes.

GALES may extend west to Croker Island or south to Port Roper overnight Wednesday or during Thursday depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Elcho Island and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End from Wednesday

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 11.5S 137.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 11.5S 136.7E - 85 knots (CAT 3) northwest of Nhulunbuy
48 HRS 12.2S 135.9E - 85 knots (CAT 3) southeast of Elcho Island
72 HRS 14.2S 134.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) nearby Port Roper

Additional Information
===================
Tropical cyclone Lam is continuing to move in a westwards direction under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across central Australia. The system should continue moving in this direction towards the northeast Top End before developing a south southwesterly track during Thursday due to a weakening of the mid-level ridge and interactions with an upper trough across southern Australia.

The current intensity of tropical cyclone Lam remains at a category 2, but the system is expected to intensify into Wednesday. Tropical cyclone Lam currently appears to have a slight westwards tilt in its structure due to moderate easterly wind shear across the system. During Wednesday this easterly wind shear should decrease, which in combination with warm sea surface temperatures and the potential development of two outflow channels may lead to a period of rapid intensification.

The Dvorak analysis was based on an embedded center pattern with a colder than white surrounding grey shade, giving a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT were 3.5. FT was based on MET as DT was not completely clear. CI was maintained at 4.0. The position was determined using Gove Airport radar and is considered good to fair.

Computer model guidance appear to be fairly consistent in having a westwards track during Wednesday before developing more of a south southwesterly track during Thursday. Intensity varies between the computer model guidance, but this is mainly dependent on the location of landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Goulburn Island to Alyangula, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Croker Island to Goulburn Island and Alyangula to Port Roper
This was probably posted/discussed yesterday. The 5-day QPF has quite a bit of precip centered over West TN. Per their AFD, there's snow, with an expected changeover to sleet/freezing rain coming Thursday night/Friday.



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
522 am CST Tuesday Feb 17 2015

Update...aviation discussion.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 355 am CST Tuesday Feb 17 2015/

Discussion...

Winter conditions will continue over the midsouth for the rest of
the week
.

Today into tonight...cold high pressure will settle over the
area. For areas that received ice...sleet...or snow
accumulations...do not expect highs to reach above freezing. Thus
whatever accumulations that fell will stay on the ground. Although
some melting may occur on pavement where sunshine occurs despite
the cold temperatures. Anything that melts will refreeze tonight
as a reinforcing cold front will push through the area. Bitter
cold temperatures will move into the area behind the front. Some
small chances for snow will also occur with some light
accumulations possible.

Wednesday into Wednesday night...the coldest temperatures of the
winter will occur as Arctic high pressure moves into the region.
Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 20s to the lower 30s.
The combination of mostly clear skies...light winds and
ice/sleet/snow accumulations will allow low temperatures to
plummet. Expect lows to range from -5 near Paris to 14 near
Clarksdale.

The next low pressure system will begin developing over Texas by
Thursday night. Light precipitation will begin to spread into the
midsouth Thursday night. Any precipitation that falls Thursday
night will likely be in the form of snow. On Friday...better
chances for precipitation will occur as the system pushes east. Snow
will change over to sleet/freezing rain over much of the area.
An
additional transition to rain will occur down near Clarksdale.
Some accumulations will occur but too early to pinpoint how much. Warmer
temperatures will move into the midsouth Friday night as the surface
low tracks over the area. Freezing rain and sleet is expected to
change over to rain as a result. However...this is dependent on
the exact track of the surface low thus it could change so stay tuned
to the latest forecasts.

Widespread rain should occur Saturday into Saturday night. Highs
on Saturday could reach into the 50s and 60s ahead of the front.
However...rain could change over back to winter precipitation
behind the passing cold front late Saturday night into Sunday
before the precipitation ends. Colder temperatures will return to
the area behind the cold front. Expect highs to return readings
generally in the 30s with lows in the 20s.
587. MahFL
Quoting 555. vis0:

... from 7 Satellites servers on 56 k which is very slow....


Who the heck uses 56K dial up these days ?
CPC is probably wondering how to word this weeks Enso forecast with all models except 1 going to or exceeding El-Nino territory this summer as this is in stark contrast to what the CPC is forecasting and if I was them they may want to raise the El-Nino odds up this Summer given these recent trends.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Thursday Night looks cold indeed with my low expected to reach 32. Well see if it happens.


A month ago you saud winter was over for us and that we are into spring. What happened? My golf game is getting messed up.
Good Morning. Here is the big-picture forecast for today from NWS for the South-Eastern Seaboard:

As winter storm moves offshore, cold weather is forecast for eastern and central U.S.

The winter storm that brought widespread snow, sleet & freezing rain to parts of the south-central U.S. & mid-Atlantic will wind down as it moves offshore Tuesday. Lingering snow & freezing rain is possible early Tues. for parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with rain across parts of the Southeast. Behind this system, another round of frigid arctic air is in store for much of the eastern U.S.

Just a word of caution from BOM on the accuracy of long-range models this time of the year:

Model outlooks

Most of the surveyed climate models forecast tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures to be above average, but remaining within the neutral range until at least May. By July, however, six of the eight models suggest a renewed warming, with the NINO3.4 index likely to reach El Niño thresholds. Forecasts spanning February to May (the traditional ENSO transition period) generally have lower accuracy than forecasts made at other times of year, therefore these forecasts should be treated with caution.
Quoting 590. luvtogolf:



A month ago you saud winter was over for us and that we are into spring. What happened? My golf game is getting messed up.


Looks cold Wednesday & Thursday. Not fun waking up early to go to work when its 32 to 36 outside.
33F with purple, green and gold on da radar exiting..

Happy Mardi Gras !!


We received 6 inches in Silver Spring. They're doing a good job of clearing roads, but they are still a mess. The 6 inches fell well within the NWS forecast and outside my 8-12 range. Reason being a dry slot developed over the Shenandoah Valley and advected eastward giving us a lull period. That in combination with only average snow ratios for much of the storm, until the storm began to transfer to the coast led to the totals being lower than my forecast. Additionally, we observed a wide variety of snowflake structures starting out with needles, then moving on to columns and plates with some dendrites mixing in, with dendritic snowflakes in the heavier bands. Needles, columns, and plates do not accumulate as well as dendrites and this led to the total snowfall accumulation being a bit lower than what I had forecasted.
Here is the relative position for the Conus jet today per GFS; nice tailwind for any fights leaving the NE headed towards Europe today.......................

Quoting 587. MahFL:



Who the heck uses 56K dial up these days ?

As of a year and a half ago, apparently 3% of the US, according to a Pew Research Poll.

This related article, "Dial-up isn't dead: Why some consumers are opting for lower Internet speeds" explains why some users opt for dial-up, and mentions applications where broadband isn't needed.
Quoting 598. Patrap:

Mardi Gras ParadeCAM and much more too !!!


please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
Quoting 599. tampabaymatt:

good luck with dat Bro'

LOL

Maybe invest a lil effort in the ignore feature, sport!
It looks like the coldest night of the season in Central FL.. will be Thursday. According, to the GFS and NAM we may not make it out of the 40s for daytime highs in Daytona Beach on Thursday and the possibility exists for a freeze on Friday morning. The one saving grace for daytime highs that could make it warmer is the sun angle starting to get higher in the sky this time of the year, and as for overnight lows any winds or cloud coverage could keep the temperatures from bottoming out.





Cold air advection behind the front with the 0 degree isotherm all the way down to SW FL.

Quoting 601. Patrap:

Quoting 599. tampabaymatt:

good luck with dat Bro'

LOL

Maybe invest a lil effort in the ignore feature, sport!


Dat's a good idea, Breaux!
The call for 8-10 inches in southern Maryland by the NWS seems to have busted in some areas only receiving 7 inches or so with a few isolated 8 in spots. Central Virginia didn't get as much snowfall as they were forecasted to get by the NWS. I don't see reports of a foot or more of snow in those areas.
Thanx fo da quotes too....'




sooo...what are the pro mets saying about el nino....here's what the aussie mets have to say in their bi-monthly report


Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral
Issued on 17 February 2015 |
Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean are neutral, having eased away from near El Niño levels over the past two months. However several models suggest some renewed warming may occur beyond May.
The majority of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators are currently within neutral bounds. Including temperatures at and beneath the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean; cloudiness near the Date Line; trade wind strength; and tropical rainfall patterns. In contrast, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, though predominantly due to regional tropical weather patterns rather than broadscale shifts in pressure. It is likely the SOI will rise again in the coming week. It is typical for ENSO events to decay during the late summer to early autumn period, consistent with the recent shift away from near El Niño conditions.
Model outlooks made in the first quarter of the year tend to be less reliable than those made at other times. That said, all international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to remain warm, but within the neutral range, until at least May. Beyond that time, outlooks favour warm-neutral or El Niño-like ocean temperatures.
Quoting 578. StormTrackerScott:

Rainfall forecast for FL this summer could be similar to what we experienced in Summer 2014 with most of the convection favoring the easterside of FL due to a persistent westerly flow which is common during El-Nino. This may not bode well for SW FL.




Oh wow, I hope not! - that would be bad news for us in SW Florida! Last summer was the driest in my 5 years here in the Cape. This winter's been incredibly dry here, save for a couple of good rains in December.

And while I'm thinking about it -- there has to be more to this than just a westerly flow. My first summer here we had a dominant westerly flow off the Gulf, but for us along the immediate coast we had many morning rainshowers off the Gulf that made up for the lack of afternoon storms that the sea breezes kept away. Last summer was very different, with low-level winds from the east and southeast, and only steering currents coming from the west. So thunderstorms that attempted to come to us in the afternoons were stopped from reaching the coast -- at least in my part of the Cape -- and we had no night-time or morning showers to make up for the deficit.
Quoting 587. MahFL:



Who the heck uses 56K dial up these days ?



Unfortunately some people still do, how I do not know, but yes:
Link

My guess is that it's elderly people. especially in small towns where broad band took a while to reach in the first place due to lack of customers until the technology became very common place. Growing up in a large populated area, high speed internet naturally arrived fast, but it took longer to reach small towns. In addition, while some elderly people have no problem using computers just as much as the young, it's often only true among elderly who had jobs and hobbies that involved often learning new skills throughout the experience. However for other elderly people, there is often an expectation to feel like there is no need to learn anything new at an advanced age, and so electronics, especially computers, requiring the need to often learn new things as it advances becomes intimidating to many elderly simply because of the often heavy burden for elderly to feel like they need to be experts and learning new things goes against such. Often many times they've gotten so used to not learning new things for so many years, that doing anything other than what they learned when they were young is something they want no part in.

Some have suggested that us younger people will also have the same problem when we are younger despite what we've grown up with. But I disagree, because I think anyone of us who has a career and or hobby that involves computer/tech related work will have no problem learning new technology when we are older because we've grown up in an environment and lived in one our whole lives where this is common place. Which is why there are actually some elderly who still use computers and are even programmers and such, because often such individuals are often some of the few who did work tech based jobs.

My dad for example, is an electrical engineer, and finds that computers, and new technology are not nearly as intimidating to him as most other people his age in their 50's who did not have jobs and hobbies all their life involving such.


In terms of the Florida crew (including myself) , the fact of the matter is that it has been a very mild Winter for these parts with the exception of a few short-term cold snaps in November, January, and the current one about to occur. All in all a mild Winter and true Spring right around the corner in March for us. Nothing compared to the nightmare this year in parts of the Mid-West and NE......................We also need the cold snap to make our citrus crops a little sweeter anyway..........................Just Sayin.
Quoting 518. Jedkins01:



lol, you're experiencing Florida-like winter weather in Alaska, who would have thought?

Never underestimate weather's ability to bring weather from compeltely different climate zones for brief periods.


Well, it's not really a brief period for this warm weather. With the exception of 8 days of normal cold, this winter has been warm, rainy and snowless in southcentral AK. It's actually the third winter in a row for above normal winter temps. As we say up here now: Alaska, where the winters are warm and summers are cool.
Octavia has already blanketed parts of a swath from Missouri to Virginia with more than 6 inches of snow. As of early Tuesday morning, the top reported snowfall total was 18 inches near Coleman in far eastern Kentucky.

A mix of sleet and freezing rain has already slickened roads and triggered power outages affecting well over 300,000 customers in 14 states and the District of Columbia. For the latest snow and ice totals, click here.

Octavia has now spread snow into the Northeast, and will dust snow-weary southeast New England on its way out to sea.
Good morning to all...Went outside this morning to check things out..Lost a lot of branches ( many in the road) . Considerable damage to the fence . May be some damage to the powerlines although the power is on. They are talking about more wintry precip. I hope not.
Quoting 578. StormTrackerScott:

Rainfall forecast for FL this summer could be similar to what we experienced in Summer 2014 with most of the convection favoring the easterside of FL due to a persistent westerly flow which is common during El-Nino. This may not bode well for SW FL.




Keep in mind though that while the first half or so of the summer was below average significantly in precip for the west side of the state, that completely changed for the end of the summer into the Fall. For example, in the Tampa Bay area, June and July were near all time record driest, and August was still substantially below normal. However, September was extremely wet, from 2 to as much as 3 times even the average rainy season amount, and the entire fall was above average as well. This combined with a wetter than average Spring left many areas on the west coast of Florida with the 3rd or 4th strait year with above average precip for the year despite the first half of summer dry spell.

In fact much of the Tampa Bay area and other west coast of Florida finished 5-10 inches above average for the year for 2014 and also did so in 2013, 2012 and I think even 2011.

The whole reason I'm saying is this is to point out that first, it's really far out, so it's hard to even speculate if that will be true, and 2, because it is so far out, you can't say how the rest of the year will play out. If last year ended up with half the rainy season being well below normal to the point of dry grass and almost water restrictions, but yet finished with above average for the year, you just can't say this far out if it will be below average or above for the west coast of Florida.

Quoting 612. hydrus:

Good morning to all...Went outside this morning to check things out..Lost a lot of branches ( many in the road) . Considerable damage to the fence . May be some damage to the powerlines although the power is on. They are talking about more wintry precip. I hope not.
Glad everything is ok with you. Hope no more ice accumulates on those power lines which would weighed them down and cause them to snap.

Quoting 612. hydrus:

Good morning to all...Went outside this morning to check things out..Lost a lot of branches ( many in the road) . Considerable damage to the fence . May be some damage to the powerlines although the power is on. They are talking about more wintry precip. I hope not.


You made it through, which is always the important part.
Quoting 602. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It looks like the coldest night of the season in Central FL.. will be Thursday. According, to the GFS and NAM we may not make it out of the 40s for daytime highs in Daytona Beach on Thursday and the possibility exists for a freeze on Friday morning. The one saving grace for daytime highs that could make it warmer is the sun angle starting to get higher in the sky this time of the year, and as for overnight lows any winds or cloud coverage could keep the temperatures from bottoming out.





Cold air advection behind the front with the 0 degree isotherm all the way down to SW FL.




Be some cold race cars Thursday night for the Duels.......

Link
Prince Edward Island's capitol city, Charlottetown, reportedly had a new record all-time greatest 1-storm snowfall of 86.8 cm / 34.2" on Sunday-Monday.

Link
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2015 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2015

***Winter storm exits the East Coast on Wednesday***

***Another arctic fronts brings incredibly cold temperatures***

***Mild and dry for the western United States***

The overall weather pattern through the middle of the week will be
featured with a pronounced upper level trough over the eastern half of the
country, and a big upper level ridge for the western states. This will
keep the West Coast, the Intermountain West, and the Desert Southwest
warmer and drier than normal, and the central and eastern parts of the
U.S. much colder than normal. Although the weather is pleasant out west,
the drought continues for California and much of the Intermountain West,
and no appreciable rain is in the forecast over the next couple of days.

The winter storm that brought widespread heavy snow, sleet, and freezing
rain to much of the south-central U.S. has now reached the East Coast as
of early Monday morning. Some lingering light snow can be expected from
the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern New England before drier weather arrives
by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms can still be expected near the
Gulf Coast and over Florida as the cold front continues moving southward.

The unusually cold weather is forecast to continue through much of the
upcoming week for the eastern U.S. Incredibly, another arctic front will
arrive to the East Coast by Wednesday night, and this will bring some
truly frigid conditions with it. Some places from the Carolinas to the
Mid-Atlantic may see some of the coldest weather since the mid-1990s!
Numerous record low temperatures are expected.

D. Hamrick
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 17 2015 - 12Z Thu Feb 19 2015

***Winter storm exits the East Coast on Wednesday***

***Another arctic fronts brings incredibly cold temperatures***

***Mild and dry for the western United States***

The overall weather pattern through the middle of the week will be
featured with a pronounced upper level trough over the eastern half of the
country, and a big upper level ridge for the western states. This will
keep the West Coast, the Intermountain West, and the Desert Southwest
warmer and drier than normal, and the central and eastern parts of the
U.S. much colder than normal. Although the weather is pleasant out west,
the drought continues for California and much of the Intermountain West,
and no appreciable rain is in the forecast over the next couple of days.

The winter storm that brought widespread heavy snow, sleet, and freezing
rain to much of the south-central U.S. has now reached the East Coast as
of early Monday morning. Some lingering light snow can be expected from
the Delmarva Peninsula to eastern New England before drier weather arrives
by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms can still be expected near the
Gulf Coast and over Florida as the cold front continues moving southward.

The unusually cold weather is forecast to continue through much of the
upcoming week for the eastern U.S. Incredibly, another arctic front will
arrive to the East Coast by Wednesday night, and this will bring some
truly frigid conditions with it. Some places from the Carolinas to the
Mid-Atlantic may see some of the coldest weather since the mid-1990s!
Numerous record low temperatures are expected.

D. Hamrick

Link
Quoting 598. Patrap:

Mardi Gras ParadeCAM and much more too !!!


love to here nola compared to san francisco and that the sun is coming out :)
Hey hydrus, "Great minds think alike." :P
Quoting 608. Jedkins01:




Unfortunately some people still do, how I do not know, but yes:
Link

My guess is that it's elderly people. especially in small towns where broad band took a while to reach in the first place due to lack of customers until the technology became very common place. Growing up in a large populated area, high speed internet naturally arrived fast, but it took longer to reach small towns. In addition, while some elderly people have no problem using computers just as much as the young, it's often only true among elderly who had jobs and hobbies that involved often learning new skills throughout the experience. However for other elderly people, there is often an expectation to feel like there is no need to learn anything new at an advanced age, and so electronics, especially computers, requiring the need to often learn new things as it advances becomes intimidating to many elderly simply because of the often heavy burden for elderly to feel like they need to be experts and learning new things goes against such. Often many times they've gotten so used to not learning new things for so many years, that doing anything other than what they learned when they were young is something they want no part in.

Some have suggested that us younger people will also have the same problem when we are younger despite what we've grown up with. But I disagree, because I think anyone of us who has a career and or hobby that involves computer/tech related work will have no problem learning new technology when we are older because we've grown up in an environment and lived in one our whole lives where this is common place. Which is why there are actually some elderly who still use computers and are even programmers and such, because often such individuals are often some of the few who did work tech based jobs.

My dad for example, is an electrical engineer, and finds that computers, and new technology are not nearly as intimidating to him as most other people his age in their 50's who did not have jobs and hobbies all their life involving such.



Absolutely agree. I think it has to do with the rapid pace of changes in this era. Many of us, whether computer hobbyists or not, who grew up from about 1970 on, are used to fast changes - and technology is driving this.
Quoting 616. Naga5000:




You made it through, which is always the important part.
Thank you...Take snow over ice anyday...what a mess..It is neat to look at tho.
#608 - Jedkins01

See the article I linked in post #597. For some people interviewed, cost was a factor, for others, lifestyle, and in some applications, broadband is simply not needed (remote monitoring).
Quoting 624. hydrus:

Thank you...Take snow over ice anyday...what a mess..It is neat to look at tho.


Being from Ft. Lauderdale and settling in Orlando, I have only been in snow a handful of times and never an ice storm. Although that one January we did get some icicles on the palm trees around Lake Davis here in town while it flurried around central Florida. I guess its one of those things like a lot of the bloggers have about hurricanes. I would love to experience an ice storm, but that's probably a stupid and dangerous thing to say.
Ended up with a period of freezing rain this morning, enough to coat elevated surfaces. At least I can claim I got something from this event..
Sleet reported in Galveston, NASA 1 Rd.

Quoting 575. bwi:

Ended up with about six inches 10 mile NE of DC. Those nbc news totals don't seem right.
Yeah they seem wrong.I measured 6.6 which is still a decent a decent total from a snow event and right in the range of 4-8.No bust here at my location.Kids are gearing up to go outside and play in the snow but it won't be for long since its really cold out.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
830 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

CTZ003-004-MAZ017>024-RIZ001>008-171600-
TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN. ..
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDEN CE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WES TERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
830 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT/RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING...

A SHIELD OF STEADY SNOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS MORNING. WHILE
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. GIVEN VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES...SNOW WILL IMMEDIATELY ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS
AND MAKE FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL. IN ADDITION...REDUCED VISIBILITIES
CAN BE EXPECTED. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION THIS
MORNING.

$$

FRANK
#608 JEDKINS

:P
Quoting bwi:
Ended up with about six inches 10 mile NE of DC. Those nbc news totals don't seem right.


Some areas got a little more than others. Here's the National Weather Service site with some snowfall reports from the area.
It seems 4-5" is a very common number for the D.C. area.
Link
Quoting 629. washingtonian115:

Yeah they seem wrong.I measured 6.6 which is still a decent a decent total from a snow event and right in the range of 4-8.No bust here at my location.Kids are gearing up to go outside and play in the snow but it won't be for long since its really cold out.


Enjoy it while it lasts looks like we'll be melting all of it Saturday, unless things trend differently.
Quoting 633. Drakoen:



Enjoy it while it lasts looks like we'll be melting all of it Saturday, unless things trend differently.
I cant wait...and it better not trend differently...:)
Looks like Boston and points south are going to over achieve from this little storm today.  Forecast only called for 1-2" with isolated 3" on the cape, but the snow band that has occupied that area for the better part of 2 hours has shown consistent radar returns of 1-1.5" per hour snowfall rates.

Just extending the where the trowel progressed over the Mid Atlantic states across Jersey and into New England.  I would not be surprised to see some rather wide spread 3-5" snows from this south of Boston along the I-95 corridor to just east of Bridgeport.  Snowfall ratios are 20:1.  That band has been very strong over their area for the better part of 2 hours already, another 1 to 2 to go.



Quoting 636. ILwthrfan:

Looks like Boston to Havard and points south are going to over achieve from this little storm today.  Forecast only called for 1-2" with isolated 3" on the cape, but the snow band that has occupied that area for the better part of 2 hours has shown consistent radar returns of 1-1.5" per hour snowfall rates.

Just extending the where the trowel progressed over the Mid Atlantic states across Jersey and into New England.  I would not be surprised to see some rather wide spread 3-5" snows from this south of Boston along the I-95 corridor to Bridgeport.  Snowfall ratios are 20:1.  That band has been very strong over their area for the better part of 2 hours already.






Of course they are getting solid banding from what should have been our storm...
Saw this great WunderPhoto this morning. Kennebunker said she didn't mind me posting it here. This was taken in Biddeford, Maine.


Caption: Snow, that is! The wind and sun have cleared the peak of this roof, and now the drift and the meltwater have met at the eaves

Made me wonder how dark the front rooms of that building must be...similar to boarding up for a hurricane?
639. vis0




469. sar2401 3:08 AM GMT on February 17, 2015
Whoa. Just had a little posting problem here on the blog. This is the error message -
------------------------------------------------- -- ----
Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.

Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.
------------------------------------------------- ------------------------ -----  ----

Talk about blaming the victim...:-)

     Quoting 471. LAbonbon:


I get that every time the blog is down. You're in good company :D

...too soon? [ ]
...too tasteless? [ ]
...who cares [ ]
...too late [ ]
Made me wonder how dark the front rooms of that building must be...similar to boarding up for a hurricane?

ugggg...i forgot how that felt until you just mentioned it
Quoting 633. Drakoen:



Enjoy it while it lasts looks like we'll be melting all of it Saturday, unless things trend differently.
The storm will have to be better sampled.It's still 4 days away so we'll see but knowing this winter and how its been I wouldn't be surprised if it trended worse for our area.
Quoting 634. hydrus:




NAO and AO seem to have ZERO bearing this February as to whether or not I get buried in snow and freeze to death. NAO has been positive since December, the result of course is that I get 7 feet of snow. AO has been positive since December (with a few negative dips) and the result has been below normal to really, really below normal temps. Obliviously neither of these has had their traditional impact on the northeast for tele-connections, which considering they have both been mostly positive, generally means warmer with less snow. Perhaps the MJO and PNA are much bigger drivers for Eastern United States weather in the winter than previously thought?
Air Sports

It will be in the low 80's here today.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1055 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2015


Excerpt:

WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK, AREAS FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL LIKELY SEE
RECORD DAILY LOWS, AND IN SEVERAL CASES THE LOWEST READINGS
IN DECADES.
Quoting 641. washingtonian115:

The storm will have to be better sampled.It's still 4 days away so we'll see but knowing this winter and how its been I wouldn't be surprised if it trended worse for our area.


True. There are several pieces of energy over the Pacific Ocean that need to be sampled.
Quoting 642. tlawson48:



NAO and AO seem to have ZERO bearing this February as to whether or not I get buried in snow and freeze to death. NAO has been positive since December, the result of course is that I get 7 feet of snow. AO has been positive since December (with a few negative dips) and the result has been below normal to really, really below normal temps. Obliviously neither of these has had their traditional impact on the northeast for tele-connections, which considering they have both been mostly positive, generally means warmer with less snow. Perhaps the MJO and PNA are much bigger drivers for Eastern United States weather in the winter than previously thought?
Blame the EPO...

648. vis0

Quoting 555. vis0:

toot # 6, this yr alone i'm 6 fer 6. (would pat myself in the back but as SAR2401 might say "at my age THAT'D get me a stiff medical bill and an arm in a shoulder sling for 2 weeks".
Cmmntd on SAR2401 last night, ~9pm eastern time to 'look out for precipitation in ~30 mins' (after posting cmmnt) and what happened ~0130 to 0200 am UTC or ~30 mins later 0930 to 1000pm EST . not much but precip. none the LESS, when most said nothing was to fall. Some might say it was inevitable, i did not see any radar nor SAT img. till ~6am or 8 hrs later, WHY? Been uploading 2 VIDs & downloading 12 hrs worth of Sat. imagery (most every 30 min images,  3 satellite imagary every 15 min images) here an every  15 min SAT of USofA wx from Feb 8th till 16th 2015.
http://youtu.be/tDxJp_IbXIs (996x748) (missing frames causing jump or uptick in animation speed)
one of the every 15 mins imagery) from 7 Satellites servers on 56 k which is very slow.


(worst toot ever was my 2014 TS prediction let my ego decide the amount, my prediction was disgraceful)
my times above might be off cold have my thinking process snarled up, i'm coming down with a cold (i hope that's all, probably from fumes of chemicals, breathed in last night also got chem.  burns on hands was helping mop up a neighbor's floor (washing machine overflowed) and old container of thinner or thicker than thinner stored under cabinet i had to mop got on my hands (can was rusty, probably solved neighbor's dry throat problems she's had for months-she said...fumes i figure. The red in middle of back of hand is chem burns, the browning fingers are from ml-d radiation (or i sleep with my fingers under a Barbie® suntanning bed) puts out very little i mean VERY little (i'm safe, have geiger in room) if i'm away for 2 weeks fingers cleans up. NO! I DONT PLAY WITH DOLLS!...under the age of 30 : - P ............Oh, see the light switch missing (left of hand) due to ml-d nothing electromagnetic can come out of a wall more than a specific amount of inches, that amount is directly connected to the thickness of the paint via a special equation, the light switch was too long i removed it in 1972 and bought face-plates of low profiles at i think it was Radio Shack. Oh yeah weather flurries for last 2 hrs with Sunshine, in the end its still cool (cold for others).
I got about 6 inches.
My Dad just called and said there are ice pellets falling from the sky in Ft. Walton Beach. It's about 40 deg in this area.
A possible system that needs to be watched for development next week for the Eastcoast.
Quoting 651. Sfloridacat5:

A possible system that needs to be watched for development next week for the Eastcoast.

I guess nature got bored with Boston and decided to start dumping us instead.
Sorry for the double post; I replied to the wrong entry initially.
Quoting 650. opal92nwf:

My Dad just called and said there are ice pellets falling from the sky in Ft. Walton Beach. It's about 40 deg in this area.



That would be consistent with the "mixed" precip bands on the radar loops I am seeing coming across that area. Good to get the on the ground reports to verify. As noted by another blogger yesterday ( I think it was SAR), you can't always trust the doppler returns for the "exact" conditions on the ground. Also depends on whether the radar loop you are looking at is straight across the visible horizon in a line or on the composite setting showing the layers from the ground up................Sometimes, the precip shown a few thousand feet up (or the overcast including false returns off the cloud deck) might not reflect what it actually reaching the ground.

This report verifies some of what we are seeing on the returns all the way to the ground.
Quoting 649. Climate175:

I got about 6 inches.


nothing wrong with that.

(runs)
Quoting 655. aquak9:



nothing wrong with that.

(runs)
:p I think he's referring to snow XD.
Quoting 563. StormTrackerScott:



Thursday Night looks cold indeed with my low expected to reach 32. Well see if it happens.


I'll trade your 0C for my 0F.

All epic cold outbreaks I remember in the mid atlantic after 1972 when I started tracking it, happened in December or January. But this February (2/19-2/20) looks comparable to those, little less intense but extreme for duration.

I've found out people run pipes under crawl spaces here (fortunately not my house) and along the interior
surface of exterior walls. This latter is questionable but there is no excuse for approving a crawl space water pipe in a climate this cold in winter.
39 F on St Charles at Lee Circle.

Lotsa Guys dressed as Gals too,,and vice versa, I think...urp',scuse me

: P

The reflection of the snow from the sunlight is quite amazing.
Quoting 655. aquak9:



nothing wrong with that.

(runs)
Quoting Climate175:
I got about 6 inches.


You must be happy:)


Squall line approaching the Tampa Bay area.
Based on the weather models the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening for our area could be similar to this past Saturday only with dynamics not as strong as they were this past Saturday.

But that's just my take..... please correct me if I am wrong.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Squall line approaching the Tampa Bay area.


Don't Think I would call that a squall line, no lightning or very strong winds in it. It will bring us some brief heavy showers before shield of rain over spreads the area tonight.
Quoting 664. Tornado6042008X:

Based on the weather models the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening for our area could be similar to this past Saturday only with dynamics not as strong as they were this past Saturday.

But that's just my take..... please correct me if I am wrong.


Yeah, it will be similar but not as strong. Model Bufkit analysis shows the forcing below the dendritic growth zone which yields lower than standard snow to liquid ratios. I see a coating to an inch (at best) from this.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 627. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ended up with a period of freezing rain this morning, enough to coat elevated surfaces. At least I can claim I got something from this event..


I didn't even notice until the wind picked up, you could hear the pines crackling. Might see a little more 7-9 days from now according a NAM run I saw, we'll see it's a ways away.
Quoting 652. washingtonian115:

I guess nature got bored with Boston and decided to start dumping us instead.
I seem to recall that you were complaining bitterly about not having snow, and asking for snow -- but I don't recall you asking for specific dates. Nature always answers such requests but the schedule is strictly Ma's.
Has anyone read the weekly enso update? Negative/below average anomalies have prevailed in the eastern Pacific,but positive epuatorial /above average anomalies have developed over the central Pacific and western Pacific, resulting in a gradual warming trend of those waters. These do not represent el nino conditions, but do represent modoki el nino conditions. This bears watching, especially as we approach the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. What does this mean for the United States this summer and fall? I'm not going to get my hopes up to high for this modoki el nino fantasy, but I however, do suggest that if you haven't downloaded the weekly enso update already, to do so now.
672. vis0

Quoting 573. StormTrackerScott:

With all of this I wouldn't expect much at all from this year Hurricane Season so my numbers are 8 5 2. Could even be in the 6 to 7 named storm range if trends continue.
Maybe an active TS season & an El Nino Tarde, is that some new Modoki type of Nino? Nope, ►El Nino (estas)Tarde◄sp|en►The Boy (is) Late◄. Nature doesn't have internet service, so she doesn't know you can't have both within a Calendar year. hhhhhhhHHHHa Peter is here and El Nino is around the corner.