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Typhoon Higos Makes History in NW Pacific; Heavy Snow, Floods Pummel Southern Europe

By: Bob Henson 3:50 PM GMT on February 11, 2015

With an unexpected burst of intensification on Monday, Typhoon Higos became the strongest tropical cyclone on record for so early in the year in the Northern Hemisphere. The compact typhoon dissipated quickly after its show of strength, having spun out its short life over an empty stretch of the Northwest Pacific roughly midway between the Marshall Islands and Northern Mariana Islands. The official peak intensity of Higos, as recorded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) was 105 kts (120 mph) at 0600 GMT on February 10, making it a Category 3. Satellite imagery suggests that Higos may have briefly spiked at Category 4 strength, with an outside chance of Category 5 strength, so the storm’s peak winds could be revised in later analyses. Two NASA satellites were in place to estimate rainfall rates below Higos.


Figure 1. NASA's Aqua satellite captured this visible image of Typhoon Higos at 0310 GMT on February 10, 2015. Image credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team.


Figure 2. The satellite image at right of Higos, collected at 0301 GMT on February 10, 2015, shows a solid field of intense convection around the typhoon’s distinct eye. The typhoon’s intensity at this point or shortly thereafter may have been stronger than the officially recorded peak of 105 kts (120 mph). Image credit: NOAA, via @wxtrackercody.


Typhoons do form on occasion in February over the Northwest Pacific, with 36 tropical cyclones on record for the region since 1900 in NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website. However, these storms tend to develop late in the month, with their peak intensities often occurring in early March. Supertyphoon Mitag formed at the end of February 2002 and attained peak winds of 140 kts (160 mph) on March 5. The strongest intensity in the official record during February is 1970’s Typhoon Nancy, whose winds reached 120 kts (140 mph) on February 24. This also stands as a record for the entire Northern Hemisphere, since water temperatures are normally too cool and wind shear too strong to allow for hurricane development so early in the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic.

Another noteworthy aspect of Higos is its position-–at peak intensity, it was more than 500 miles east of the track of any other February typhoon. The next closest is 2014’s Typhoon Faxai, although Faxai did not peak until early March. Sea-surface temperatures were close to 1°C warmer than average across the region where Higos developed (see Figure 3), part of a pattern of unusual warmth covering much of the western tropical Pacific.



Figure 3. Departures from average (anomalies) in sea-surface temperature (degrees C) for February 5, 2015, just before Typhoon Higos developed. Image credit: NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations.

Big snow, major flooding in Mediterranean Europe
While New England has been dealing with a spectacular onslaught of snow over the past week, southern Europe has gotten its own high-impact weather. The most devastating toll has actually been offshore: on Sunday, 29 migrants attempting to sail from Libya to Italy died of hypothermia after being rescued from the Mediterranean, and the United Nations now reports that at least 300 migrants in all appear to have drowned as several rubber dinghies capsized. Hundreds of motorists were rescued late last week after being trapped by as much as 15” of snow that fell across the Pyrenees and Cantabrian Mountains of far northern Spain. The much-touristed city of Bilboa received its heaviest snow since 1985, according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Further east, the worst flooding in more than 40 years struck southern Albania last week. One district reported more than 11” of rain last week, more than double its average for the entire month. Tents, bedding, and winter clothes are en route from EU members Austria and Slovakia to help hundreds of flooding evacuees. Albanian prime minister Edi Rama asserted in an interview with the Guardian that deforestation and soil erosion contributed to the rainfall’s impact, and that poorly maintained dams and reservoirs could make matters worse.

I’ll have an update Thursday on the next round of bitter cold and potential snow heading for the Northeast U.S.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Snow covers part of the cloisters at Roncesvalles Church, in the Pyrenees Mountains of northern Spain, on February 5. Image credit: AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos.

tropical cyclone Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Bob!
Thanks for the update - good to see European coverage as well.
I gust dr Jeff has retired from doing blog updates
Doom, with a Capital "D"




From the previous blog:

NASA Earth Observatory has a really interesting article that discusses land 'gain' at the mouth of the Atchafalaya and overall land loss throughout the Mississippi delta region. It has a really cool series of time lapse images between 1984 and 2014.

Growing Deltas in Atchafalaya Bay
February 10, 2015



The delta plain of the Mississippi River is disappearing. The lobe-shaped arc of coastal land from the Chandeleur Islands in eastern Louisiana to the Sabine River loses a football field’s worth of land every hour. Put another way, the delta has shrunk by nearly 5,000 square kilometers (2,000 square miles) over the past 80 years. That’s as if most of Delaware had sunk into the sea.

Though land losses are widely distributed across the 300 kilometer (200 mile) wide coastal plain of Louisiana, Atchafalaya Bay stands as a notable exception. In a swampy area south of Morgan City, new land is forming at the mouths of the Wax Lake Outlet and the Atchafalaya River. Wax Lake Outlet is an artificial channel that diverts some of the river’s flow into the bay about 16 kilometers (10 miles) west of where the main river empties.

This series of false-color satellite images chronicles the growth of the two deltas between 1984 and 2014. All of the images were acquired by instruments on Landsat satellites: the Thematic Mapper on Landsat 5, the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus on Landsat 7, and the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8. A combination of shortwave infrared, near infrared, and green light was used to accentuate differences between land and water. Water appears dark blue; vegetation is green; bare ground is pink. All of the images were acquired in autumn, when river discharge tends to be low.
Read full article
Quoting 5. Patrap:

Doom, with a Capital "D"






Yeah....I want no part of that...but if it does happen, at least Mardi Gras will be over by then.
12z GFS a little better than 00z and much better than 6z. Trended a bit southeast with the low. Still a lot changes possible especially with the two clipper systems from the northern stream that will need to exit first before the models get a better idea of where this southern stream system is going. This is in reference to the Tuesday system, not the Thursday one for next week.
Thank you very much for the update, Mr. Henson, especially for the coverage of some weather news from Southern Europe which really provides a wild show these weeks.

Current conditions in Tel Aviv due to the ferocious and dust loaded winter cyclone in the Eastern Mediterranean:



Forecast of increasing wave hights for tonight in this part of the Med (in meters):


Source.


11.02.2015: A sandstorm with winds reaching 100km an hour is causing disruption across the Middle East. Egypt has temporarily closed two of its seaports due to strong waves. The sea defences along Beirut's famous Corniche have been damaged and flights to and from the airport at Eilat in Israel have been grounded. A windswept Quentin Sommerville reports from Jerusalem.

Airmasses at noon today:



I've already posted earlier about the newest (weather related) catastrophe in the Mediterranean; the article below has background informations and links to maps:

Hundreds of migrants killed in new Mediterranean tragedy, says UN
BBC, 11 February 2015 Last updated at 14:43 GMT
At least 300 migrants are feared to have drowned after attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa this week in rough seas, the UN says.
UNHCR Europe director Vincent Cochetel said the incident was a "tragedy on an enormous scale". ...


Have to go for a while ...
The 12z GFS shows two anomalously strong areas of high pressure sliding down into the East U.S., one at 78hrs and the second at 156hr. It just so happens that a developing low, the one that supplies the winter storm across the Southeast on the 6z run, is able to track after the first one and before the second one, allowing it to cut across the Mid-Atlantic and leave most of the Southeast wet.

Go figure.
11. bwi
Quoting 8. Drakoen:

12z GFS a little better than 00z and much better than 6z. Trended a bit southeast with the low. Still a lot changes possible especially with the two clipper systems from the northern stream that will need to exit first before the models get a better idea of where this southern stream system is going. This is in reference to the Tuesday system, not the Thursday one for next week.


12z GFS just seems like a whole lot of nasty weather across a whole lot of the country. After the next two clippers, a huge rainstorm for New England? Nasty. Three 1050mb highs in a row -- if that last one gets held up across the midwest, going to put a a hurt on somewhere.
Quoting 10. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z GFS shows two anomalously strong areas of high pressure sliding down into the East U.S., one at 78hrs and the second at 156hr. It just so happens that a developing low, the one that supplies the winter storm across the Southeast on the 6z run, is able to track after the first one and before the second one, allowing it to cut across the Mid-Atlantic and leave most of the Southeast wet.

Go figure.


This mess won't be sorted out until the clippers in the northern stream pass through and of course sampling of the southern and northern stream shortwaves.


wow!! low at 977MB!
BIG LOW AT 977mb RIGHT NEXT TO THE COAST LINE


big storm for the northeast this weekend!!!


We're baaaack...

Plenty of chaff around today!

66, light breeze and sunny here.
right now if you live in new haven to boston on saturday night into sunday morning over 6 inches of snow maybe in boston and north over 20 inches! need to be watch!!
I really hope this cold weather comes, the freezes here this year haven't been much.

I am very disappointed with the winter so far. Yeah, we've had some 60s highs in November and December, but overall, it's a very lackluster winter in Miami. 2 days ago, the models suggested high temperatures in the mid-upper 50s to 60 in Miami. Now, it's forecasting near 70 for daytime highs in Miami on Friday, Saturday and Sunday the "coldest" outbreak of the season. Try "Miami. I choose you to be the warmest spot in the entire winter season of 2014-2015."
Quoting 20. SouthCentralTx:

I really hope this cold weather comes, the freezes here this year haven't been much.


Quoting 16. hurricanes2018:



big storm for the northeast this weekend!!!


What a powerful system, both ECMWF and GFS models really agree on this system. Just look at how tight those isobars are in the mid Atlantic. Models bring 10 to 15+ foot waves to PR and the northern British islands. If this does verify I think it will be this winters strongest swell event in the northern islands. So surfers get your surfboards for Monday and Tuesday of next week ;-)
Thanks for the new post Bob,
Good to see the blog is back up and running again.
Quoting 23. 882MB:



What a powerful system, both ECMWF and GFS models really agree on this system. Just look at how tight those isobars are in the mid Atlantic. Models bring 10 to 15+ foot waves to PR and the northern British islands. If this does verify I think it will be this winters strongest swell event in the northern islands. So surfers get your surfboards for Monday and Tuesday of next week ;-)


The isobars are drawn every 2mb. Convention is to draw every 4. It is forecast to be an intense system but not
as extreme as some others of recent years. It does look ugly for Southeast New England for yet more snow.
Gee one storm after another up there,those folks cant catch a break this season...
whew...i was going through withdrawals.........thanx for new blog bob.......here in el paso we had two days where we tried to tie or break the heat record.....both came close but no cigar...now we have a cold front coming through....last week they thought it would be a wet system but that fizzled and rain chances are minimal....the wind is blowing though...we can expect gust this afternoon in excess of 50 mph
'Arrest Warrant' Issued for Punxsutawney Phil in New Hampshire


Police in New Hampshire have issued an "arrest warrant" for Punxsutawney Phil, citing his failure to disclose that six more weeks of winter "would consist of mountains of snow."

Merrimack police uploaded a humorous post to its Facebook page that it was issuing a "warrant" for Phil, the groundhog who saw his shadow last Monday and "forecasted" six more weeks of winter.

"We have received several complaints from the public that this little varmint is held up in a hole, warm and toasty," reads the department's post, which has received nearly 2,000 "likes" and has been shared more than 3,400 times.
Quoting 5. Patrap:

Doom, with a Capital "D"






Great...........if that really happens then it would be extremely disappointing since that is the time I go on a trip to Orlando.
Quoting 28. nrtiwlnvragn:

'Arrest Warrant' Issued for Punxsutawney Phil in New Hampshire


Police in New Hampshire have issued an "arrest warrant" for Punxsutawney Phil, citing his failure to disclose that six more weeks of winter "would consist of mountains of snow."

Merrimack police uploaded a humorous post to its Facebook page that it was issuing a "warrant" for Phil, the groundhog who saw his shadow last Monday and "forecasted" six more weeks of winter.

"We have received several complaints from the public that this little varmint is held up in a hole, warm and toasty," reads the department's post, which has received nearly 2,000 "likes" and has been shared more than 3,400 times.

LOL - love the part about extradition from Punxsutawney to Merrimack.
Quoting 5. Patrap:

Doom, with a Capital "D"







Hopefully it will be failure with capital F of a forecast as most long term GFS runs are.

Meanwhile... The lack of snow up here in southcentral Alaska has caused for only the second time in history the moving of the Iditarod... It will start in fairbanks now.

For now, the cermonial, un timed start will still happen in Anchorage. Unless the latest spate of forecasted warm weather melts the little remaining snow we have on the ground.
Thank you Bob Henson.
Its just amazing how much is going on all over the place outside the Americas.

Warming up here for the weekend, might even get above freezing in the snow bound places. Still reportedly dozens of villages in Spain cut off by snow drifts.
Well as has been the case most of the winter, models are backing off again on the next cold event. For several days guidance was up to 30 degrees below average with Tallahassee near freezing for highs and lows in the mid teens and a wind chill near 0, and Tampa down into the mid and upper 20's for lows and highs near 40 and the freezing line all the way down south of Lake Okeechobee.


Now just a day later is looking like highs near 60 in Tampa and lows near 40, and highs in the 50's in Tallahassee and lows in the upper 20's to low 30's, or just a typical event.

Guidance warmed about 10-15 degrees in the last day or so, talk about backing off.

As much as I find it fun to see any weather even that is unusual for this time of year, I'm glad in this case because spring flowers are already blooming and that would be destructive for it to get that cold for the plants.

Also, by this point in the winter, I'm kind of over the cold. The cool weather is fine, the cold, no. lol

It's actually looking like the coldest air will be Thursday night through Saturday AM than the second round given that models haven't back off on the first round.

It still is expected to reach the mid 20's here and a long duration of freezing temps Thursday night and Friday night, hopefully it won't be destructive to the newly flowering plants.
Quoting 7. LAbonbon:


Yeah....I want no part of that...but if it does happen, at least Mardi Gras will be over by then.
Not looking good for the parade Sat. in Soulard, though they've moderated the lows Sat. morning a bit due to cloud cover and the red flags have been moved to tomorrow instead. Regardless, highs in mid 20s and windy, should keep bead related exposures to a minimum. Drops into single digits Sun. a.m. Last Sat. StL set a record w/ 70 & had 68 for the pooch parade on Sun. The downtown parade on Mardi Gras will be a little warmer, but looks like snow Mon into Tues afternoon, so not the greatest either.

Currently, we are down to 32 already in S C IL after hitting 39 earlier. N-NW winds around 10 w/ 22 gust firmly in control now as we head near single digits tonight w/ a slight chance of flurries.
How's California PedleyCA?

79.1 currently here in Jurupa Valley.
Would love to see snow from Austin to Atlanta, but I have my doubts.
Quoting 31. Jedkins01:



Hopefully it will be failure with capital F of a forecast as most long term GFS runs are.



GEOS-5 has that across most of the Southeast as rain. Not the first time this winter we've seen this discrepancy, this far out.
Nice temp split. Cold at night hot in the day...

Our reprieve from the sub zero temps is here. 28F outside right now. Supposed to snow flurrie and then go into the upper 30s for some freezing rain and melt off later in the week.



look at boston over 12 inches of snow !! still over four feet of snow on the ground
NWS
40% chance of snow tomorrow
They already have a 60% and 70% chance of just snow for next Tuesday. What are they thinking.
Quoting 34. Jedkins01:

Well as has been the case most of the winter, models are backing off again on the next cold event. For several days guidance was up to 30 degrees below average with Tallahassee near freezing for highs and lows in the mid teens and a wind chill near 0, and Tampa down into the mid and upper 20's for lows and highs near 40 and the freezing line all the way down south of Lake Okeechobee.


Now just a day later is looking like highs near 60 in Tampa and lows near 40, and highs in the 50's in Tallahassee and lows in the upper 20's to low 30's, or just a typical event.

Guidance warmed about 10-15 degrees in the last day or so, talk about backing off.

As much as I find it fun to see any weather even that is unusual for this time of year, I'm glad in this case because spring flowers are already blooming and that would be destructive for it to get that cold for the plants.

Also, by this point in the winter, I'm kind of over the cold. The cool weather is fine, the cold, no. lol

It's actually looking like the coldest air will be Thursday night through Saturday AM than the second round given that models haven't back off on the first round.

It still is expected to reach the mod 20's here and a long duration of freezing temps Thursday night and Friday night, hopefully it won't be destructive to the newly flowering plants.



Local mets are showing lows no lower than 40 for Tampa for the next 7 days.

Quoting 44. tampabaymatt:


keep that red color off the coast of the northeast its better not move back to the west because 4 inches of rain its 40 inches on snow


Launch of DSCVR is planned for 6:03pm ET tonight. They had planned on a second attempt at recovering the first stage of Falcon by landing it on a drone ship. The drone ship is in place but was not built to withstand the most extreme weather conditions which in the last few days it has grown extreme with three story waves reportedly crashing over the deck of the drone ship. Only 3 of it's 4 engines is left operating as well. If the launch occurs tonight they will attempt a soft landing of Falcon in the ocean to collect landing data.. Though it is expected that the survival of the rocket is highly unlikely.

The launch of SpaceX with DSCVR can be viewed live here..


A view of SpaceX’s drone rocket landing ship in the Atlantic Ocean. Credit: SpaceX via Elon Musk
Quoting 9. barbamz:

Thank you very much for the update, Mr. Henson, especially for the coverage of some weather news from Southern Europe which really provides a wild show these weeks.

Current conditions in Tel Aviv due to the ferocious and dust loaded winter cyclone in the Eastern Mediterranean:



Forecast of increasing wave hights for tonight in this part of the Med (in meters):


Source.


11.02.2015: A sandstorm with winds reaching 100km an hour is causing disruption across the Middle East. Egypt has temporarily closed two of its seaports due to strong waves. The sea defences along Beirut's famous Corniche have been damaged and flights to and from the airport at Eilat in Israel have been grounded. A windswept Quentin Sommerville reports from Jerusalem.

Airmasses at noon today:



I've already posted earlier about the newest (weather related) catastrophe in the Mediterranean; the article below has background informations and links to maps:

Hundreds of migrants killed in new Mediterranean tragedy, says UN
BBC, 11 February 2015 Last updated at 14:43 GMT
At least 300 migrants are feared to have drowned after attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa this week in rough seas, the UN says.
UNHCR Europe director Vincent Cochetel said the incident was a "tragedy on an enormous scale". ...


Have to go for a while ...



large system over se med

Quoting 46. hurricanes2018:

keep that red color off the coast of the northeast its better not move back to the west because 4 inches of rain its 40 inches on snow
o come on whats 40 inches of snow its winter don't ya like snow in winter
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Local mets are showing lows no lower than 40 for Tampa for the next 7 days.



Based on local news (NBC-2) we're looking at a low of 43 with a high of 64 on Saturday.
So far our coldest night of the season has been 46 degrees here.

Record low is 32 for Friday and 30 for Saturday for Fort Myers so we'll be no where close to record lows.
Quoting 37. PedleyCA:


79.1 currently here in Jurupa Valley.
go ahead rub it in we be at -26 c windchill this time tomorrow refreshing cold
Extreme Cold Warning

A period of very cold wind chills is expected.

A strong cold front will cross through southern Ontario early Thursday ushering in much colder temperatures and gusty north winds. The combination of the winds with the cold temperatures will result in wind chill values of near minus 30 beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday morning.

This warning will likely need to be extended to additional areas in southern Ontario on Thursday as the cold air further advances.

While anyone who isn't dressed warmly is at risk in cold weather conditions, some are at greater risk than others for frost bite and hypothermia:
- homeless people
- outdoor workers
- people living in homes that are poorly insulated (with no heat or no power)
- people with certain medical conditions such as diabetes, peripheral neuropathy and diseases affecting the blood vessels, people taking certain medications including beta-blockers
- winter sport enthusiasts
- people who consume excess alcohol
- infants and
- seniors.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You lose heat faster when you're wet.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
Quoting 49. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

o come on whats 40 inches of snow its winter don't ya like snow in winter
With 40 inches already on the ground?
BTW SAT night will be WELL over 10:1 ratios at least NE of the Cape Cod Canal.
NWS agrees
WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER VERY
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING VERY CLOSE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE
TROP FOLD SUGGESTS VERY STRONG WAVELENGTH COMPRESSION WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING FROM 990S TO LOW 970S IN 12 HOURS S OF THE REGION. THIS
IS COLD...SO ONCE AGAIN P-TYPE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO ALL
SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM SHY OF 0.5 IN THE W TO AS MUCH AS 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE E. RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ABOVE
THE 10 TO 1 STANDARD GIVEN THE COLD AIR AND VERY ROBUST UPWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE COLUMN...INCLUDING THE DENDRITE REGION.
THEREFORE...PLOWABLE SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AKIN TO SOME OF THE BIGGER STORMS WE
HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS ESPECIALLY IN THE E HALF OF THE
REGION BUT EXACT AXES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

POTENTIALLY A 50-60 KT LLJ ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG WINDS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ALSO SOMETHING OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AT
COASTAL AREAS WHERE RATIOS WOULD BE LOWER.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
o come on whats 40 inches of snow its winter don't ya like snow in winter


Stages we've seen this season.

1. Wants snow and is disappointed by the lack of snow so far in the season.
2. Then gets excited and is happy that it's finally snowing in the area.
3. Continues to get excited because it keeps on snowing.
4. Finally had enough snow and wants it to stop.
5. (?)Sun and warm weather maybe?


ya will have to make snow tunnels to get around its not that bad could be worse
Quoting 34. Jedkins01:

Well as has been the case most of the winter, models are backing off again on the next cold event. For several days guidance was up to 30 degrees below average with Tallahassee near freezing for highs and lows in the mid teens and a wind chill near 0, and Tampa down into the mid and upper 20's for lows and highs near 40 and the freezing line all the way down south of Lake Okeechobee.


Now just a day later is looking like highs near 60 in Tampa and lows near 40, and highs in the 50's in Tallahassee and lows in the upper 20's to low 30's, or just a typical event.

Guidance warmed about 10-15 degrees in the last day or so, talk about backing off.

As much as I find it fun to see any weather even that is unusual for this time of year, I'm glad in this case because spring flowers are already blooming and that would be destructive for it to get that cold for the plants.

Also, by this point in the winter, I'm kind of over the cold. The cool weather is fine, the cold, no. lol

It's actually looking like the coldest air will be Thursday night through Saturday AM than the second round given that models haven't back off on the first round.

It still is expected to reach the mid 20's here and a long duration of freezing temps Thursday night and Friday night, hopefully it won't be destructive to the newly flowering plants.




I shouldn't have jumped on the cold for FL bandwagon as much as I did. It was six days out. In DC metro it looks like we will still get it. The interesting trend has been though for it to enter the country further west, over MN rather than New York/New England as was on last weekend's progs. More cold air comes in after the tuesday night/wednesday storm but that's eight days out.

What I take from this is retrogression of the mean East trough looks likely. Consequences for the Mid Atlantic could
be interesting.


Quoting 59. georgevandenberghe:




I shouldn't have jumped on the cold for FL bandwagon as much as I did. It was six days out. In DC metro it looks like we will still get it. The interesting trend has been though for it to enter the country further west, over MN rather than New York/New England as was on last weekend's progs. More cold air comes in after the tuesday night/wednesday storm but that's eight days out.

What I take from this is retrogression of the mean East trough looks likely. Consequences for the Mid Atlantic could
be interesting.





That type of cold would have been devastating for FL. As Jedkins alluded to, flowers and trees have already begun to bloom since it's been such a mild winter. My patio table is covered in pollen a day or two after I clean it off. To throw the system even more out of whack with a few hard freezes would have been awful.
Quoting PedleyCA:

79.1 currently here in Jurupa Valley.
I'm working at a client's office in Corona this week, and it is toasty outside with the Santa Ana winds kicking in. Hot and dry. In February. Reminds me why I miss this place so much...
Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



Stages we've seen this season.

1. Wants snow and is disappointed by the lack of snow so far in the season.
2. Then gets excited and is happy that it's finally snowing in the area.
3. Continues to get excited because it keeps on snowing.
snip



It's pretty clear to me that either the people who have been begging for snow and complaining about how boring the winter has been either don't pay any taxes to local government or are so rich it doesn't matter, and they also are not inconvenienced by the snow like most of the people in their area are. Those people only think about their own wants, not about the needs of others. Sad.
Quoting 54. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Extreme Cold Warning

A period of very cold wind chills is expected.

A strong cold front will cross through southern Ontario early Thursday ushering in much colder temperatures and gusty north winds. The combination of the winds with the cold temperatures will result in wind chill values of near minus 30 beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into Friday morning.

This warning will likely need to be extended to additional areas in southern Ontario on Thursday as the cold air further advances.

While anyone who isn't dressed warmly is at risk in cold weather conditions, some are at greater risk than others for frost bite and hypothermia:
- homeless people
- outdoor workers
- people living in homes that are poorly insulated (with no heat or no power)
- people with certain medical conditions such as diabetes, peripheral neuropathy and diseases affecting the blood vessels, people taking certain medications including beta-blockers
- winter sport enthusiasts
- people who consume excess alcohol
- infants and
- seniors.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You lose heat faster when you're wet.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.



Boyscout saying. "Cotton is Rotten". Cotten loses insulating value when wet and gets wet easily from inside (sweat) or out. Wear something else. Blue jeans BTW are cotton.

Quoting 62. CaneFreeCR:

It's pretty clear to me that either the people who have been begging for snow and complaining about how boring the winter has been either don't pay any taxes to local government or are so rich it doesn't matter, and they also are not inconvenienced by the snow like most of the people in their area are. Those people only think about their own wants, not about the needs of others. Sad.
I am just trying to remain positive with it all
its nothing anyone can do to stop what ever is coming anyway
Quoting 60. tampabaymatt:



That type of cold would have been devastating for FL. As Jedkins alluded to, flowers and trees have already begun to bloom since it's been such a mild winter. My patio table is covered in pollen a day or two after I clean it off. To throw the system even more out of whack with a few hard freezes would have been awful.


My corn and lettuce (lettuce!!) froze April 6 or 7 1987 in Tallahassee.
Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



Stages we've seen this season.

1. Wants snow and is disappointed by the lack of snow so far in the season.
2. Then gets excited and is happy that it's finally snowing in the area.
3. Continues to get excited because it keeps on snowing.
4. Finally had enough snow and wants it to stop.
5. (?)Sun and warm weather maybe?




forgot 4.5) disbelief at the 7 day forecast showing 3 more storms, and laughing hysterically
BTW MBTA commissioner stepped down over the disaster the MBTA has been in the last 2 weeks.
An additional 29.1" of snow is required to push Boston to its snowiest winter on record. With the ECMWF and GFS signaling several potential threats over the coming week, one or two of which may be significant, I fully expect us to threaten this record.

Scary in-depth-article:
Brazilians hoard water, prepare for possible drastic rationing
Reuters, By Caroline Stauffer, SAO PAULO Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:03pm GMT
Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



Stages we've seen this season.

1. Wants snow and is disappointed by the lack of snow so far in the season.
2. Then gets excited and is happy that it's finally snowing in the area.
3. Continues to get excited because it keeps on snowing.
4. Finally had enough snow and wants it to stop.
5. (?)Sun and warm weather maybe?





I have made it all the way to stage 5. It was a fun ride until about 10 days ago.
Quoting 67. TropicalAnalystwx13:

An additional 29.1" of snow is required to push Boston to its snowiest winter on record. With the ECMWF and GFS signaling several potential threats over the coming week, one or two of which may be significant, I fully expect us to threaten this record.


Its amazing it all but 5 inches happened after Jan 26th.
Thursday should push Boston over 1915-1916 and maybe past 2010-2011. Sat-Sun could catapult this winter to the #2 spot.
actually with c-2 inchs today Boston may have already surpassed 15-16 winter, not sure though, 1.6 was needed as of this morning.
Quoting 6. LAbonbon:

From the previous blog:

NASA Earth Observatory has a really interesting article that discusses land 'gain' at the mouth of the Atchafalaya and overall land loss throughout the Mississippi delta region. It has a really cool series of time lapse images between 1984 and 2014.

Growing Deltas in Atchafalaya Bay
February 10, 2015



The delta plain of the Mississippi River is disappearing. The lobe-shaped arc of coastal land from the Chandeleur Islands in eastern Louisiana to the Sabine River loses a football field%u2019s worth of land every hour. Put another way, the delta has shrunk by nearly 5,000 square kilometers (2,000 square miles) over the past 80 years. That%u2019s as if most of Delaware had sunk into the sea.

Though land losses are widely distributed across the 300 kilometer (200 mile) wide coastal plain of Louisiana, Atchafalaya Bay stands as a notable exception. In a swampy area south of Morgan City, new land is forming at the mouths of the Wax Lake Outlet and the Atchafalaya River. Wax Lake Outlet is an artificial channel that diverts some of the river%u2019s flow into the bay about 16 kilometers (10 miles) west of where the main river empties.

This series of false-color satellite images chronicles the growth of the two deltas between 1984 and 2014. All of the images were acquired by instruments on Landsat satellites: the Thematic Mapper on Landsat 5, the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus on Landsat 7, and the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8. A combination of shortwave infrared, near infrared, and green light was used to accentuate differences between land and water. Water appears dark blue; vegetation is green; bare ground is pink. All of the images were acquired in autumn, when river discharge tends to be low.
Read full article


If I remember correctly from the research I conducted in undergrad, the Mississippi's natural course of migration is towards the Atchafalya River and Delta. Of course, all the man-made modifications and engineering has prevented this from happening at this point.

I didn't have a chance to read the article/research yet, and not sure if they mentioned that. I will read it later tonight. Thanks for sharing.
Launch of DSCVR was beautiful. It's going really well so far. Hoping for noctilucent clouds. Should have some decent pics up sometime tonight.


Here's that patio furniture we've been watching in Chestnut, MA. This got to where the view was nothing but snow. Then the camera got raised up much higher to see over it.

73. vis0
Late as was to be posted but someone spilled soda on the server i mean there was a maintenance break,.

Jason-CapitalWeatherGang
5:28 PM EST
The new GFS - just in - looks a lot like the Euro for next Tues... Snow to ice event, possibly changing to rain I-95 and east. Models have definitely trend a little snowier and icier today with this event.
LikeReplyShare5

Looks like we'll be back before the madness.


Chaff on radar is way heavier than this morning.

Clear skies but we couldn't see the DSCVR launch from the Lower Keys.
Quoting 74. washingtonian115:


Jason-CapitalWeatherGang
5:28 PM EST
The new GFS - just in - looks a lot like the Euro for next Tues... Snow to ice event, possibly changing to rain I-95 and east. Models have definitely trend a little snowier and icier today with this event.
LikeReplyShare5

Looks like we'll be back before the madness.
TWC has mid-lower 20s and Freezing rain in inland New England, seems a bit odd, but Sat-Sun storms seems like a one to watch right now.
waiting for the new weather modeles coming out soon GFS!
Quoting 76. Methurricanes:

TWC has mid-lower 20s and Freezing rain in inland New England, seems a bit odd, but Sat-Sun storms seems like a one to watch right now.
I believe that they will both be insignificant for D.C.
Quoting 56. Methurricanes:

With 40 inches already on the ground?
BTW SAT night will be WELL over 10:1 ratios at least NE of the Cape Cod Canal.
NWS agrees
WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER VERY
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING VERY CLOSE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE
TROP FOLD SUGGESTS VERY STRONG WAVELENGTH COMPRESSION WITH THE LOW
DEEPENING FROM 990S TO LOW 970S IN 12 HOURS S OF THE REGION. THIS
IS COLD...SO ONCE AGAIN P-TYPE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO ALL
SNOW. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM SHY OF 0.5 IN THE W TO AS MUCH AS 0.75
TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE E. RATIOS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT ABOVE
THE 10 TO 1 STANDARD GIVEN THE COLD AIR AND VERY ROBUST UPWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE COLUMN...INCLUDING THE DENDRITE REGION.
THEREFORE...PLOWABLE SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AKIN TO SOME OF THE BIGGER STORMS WE
HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS ESPECIALLY IN THE E HALF OF THE
REGION BUT EXACT AXES REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

POTENTIALLY A 50-60 KT LLJ ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG WINDS CAN/T
BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ALSO SOMETHING OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AT
COASTAL AREAS WHERE RATIOS WOULD BE LOWER.

winds up to 70 mph!!

We have a brand new Tropical disturbance, just south of Guam. Models are not impressive with it, though GFS develops it down the road affecting the southern Philippines, in about a week. Good divergence and convergence with this small system. This system compared to Typhoon higos, will track due west over warmer waters then typhoon Higos, though a lot of factors will have to come into play, like maintaining its circulation center, developing better outflow, looks quite healthy for the time being. This might be designated an Invest sometime this week. Crazy February for the western Pacific, and a little off topic but also crazy for the NE.



The Dak is back!
Boston snow

Feb 7th 0.7"
Feb 8th 7.4"
Feb 9th 14.8"
Feb 10th 0.7"
Feb 11th 0.5"

For how many days
in a row
will Boston have
measurable snow?
Quoting 62. CaneFreeCR:

It's pretty clear to me that either the people who have been begging for snow and complaining about how boring the winter has been either don't pay any taxes to local government or are so rich it doesn't matter, and they also are not inconvenienced by the snow like most of the people in their area are. Those people only think about their own wants, not about the needs of others. Sad.


Just wait until summer and people are wishing for cat 5 hurricanes to slam into florida. Honestly, it's pretty sad as you say.
Quoting 83. BaltimoreBrian:

Boston snow

Feb 7th 0.7"
Feb 8th 7.4"
Feb 9th 14.8"
Feb 10th 0.7"
Feb 11th 0.5"

For how many days
in a row
will Boston have
measurable snow?
Boston got more snow on February 8th than Philadelphia got all season.
Worcester has 93 inches of snow, Philly has 5, they are 250 miles apart, and that gradient will only grow this week.
there may be 9 FOOT difference between Worcester and Philly by Sunday Evening.
Quoting 69. wartsttocs:



I have made it all the way to stage 5. It was a fun ride until about 10 days ago.


I'm on stage 6. Uncontrolled, non-stop swearing.
Quoting 83. BaltimoreBrian:

Boston snow

Feb 7th 0.7"
Feb 8th 7.4"
Feb 9th 14.8"
Feb 10th 0.7"
Feb 11th 0.5"

For how many days
in a row
will Boston have
measurable snow?

Despite how weary
Boston residents may be
No changes in the future
Do I see
Still, the exact track and speed of strengthening of the storm will determine how far north and west the accumulating snow expands across New England to before the system heads rolls out toward Atlantic Canada. AccuWeather.com will continue to provide updates on this storm and others.
As the Alberta Clipper sweeps by, Arctic will follow from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast.
Areas made wet and slushy from the storm and moderate temperatures during the middle of the week can become icy and freeze solid. Temperatures may get so low that inexpensive ice-melting compounds, such as rock salt, will be ineffective.
The parade of Alberta Clipper storms will not stop during the school week.
The next Alberta Clipper storm is forecast to dive into the Northeast states during the Valentine's Day weekend with another round of snow.
The clipper storm storm this weekend is likely to be accompanied by dangerously cold air with gusty winds regardless of the amount of snow it brings.
Since the storm this weekend will strengthen quickly it has the potential to bring moderate to heavy snowfall to part of the Northeast.
LOL from WBZ-TV website article not comment
BOSTON (CBS) –Words NOT overheard between fellow commuters and office workers in Boston today: “Ooh look, it’s snowing outside.” Words actually heard: “(Censored).”
You're getting better Cody.
Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Despite how weary
Boston residents may be
No changes in the future
Do I see


Dang, Cody...
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Chaff on radar is way heavier than this morning.

Clear skies but we couldn't see the DSCVR launch from the Lower Keys.



GFS has me hopeful for some significant snowfall here this winter (It forecasts around a foot of snow over SW Ohio in 240 hours.) One system comes through on Saturday, and one Late Monday into Early Wednesday. Unfortunately both systems are forecasted to eventually dump even more snow on the Northeast.
Quoting 62. CaneFreeCR:

It's pretty clear to me that either the people who have been begging for snow and complaining about how boring the winter has been either don't pay any taxes to local government or are so rich it doesn't matter, and they also are not inconvenienced by the snow like most of the people in their area are. Those people only think about their own wants, not about the needs of others. Sad.
Not true at all. Those begging for snow are not likely begging for a crippling blizzard, they just are so accustomed to seeing snow year in and year out that this season has underperformed in some areas, while overperformed in other areas such as Boston. Also, some ski resorts in the Appalachians I'm sure could use the snow.

By the way am I the only one starting to get sick and tired of seeing these same arguments over and over again about how other people are wishing for some kind of weather phenomenon.

Picture this if weather was boring all the time which is basically like saying no precipitation then we would have more droughts like California and Brazil. IMHO droughts are more ruinous than floods, hurricanes, blizzards, and tornadoes combined. Just look up the monetary value. Most droughts exceed billions of dollars in damages or losses however you look at it, not saying the later can't exceed that value i.e Sandy, Katrina, India's monsoon floods, Storm of the Century, April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak.

And as far as taxes go every US citizen or resident as far as I know pays taxes in this country (rich or poor), I would much rather pay it towards clean-up and recovery efforts or better yet put it towards some good use like building sound, stable structures that could withstand the wrath of natures fury, then the bimbos and busters who clog up the states prisons.
Speaking of tornadoes:

1966 Tampa tornado family

The 1966 Tampa tornado family was a deadly tornado family that affected the I-4 corridor in Central Florida from the Tampa Bay area to Brevard County on April 4, 1966. Two tornadoes affected the region, each of which featured a path length in excess of 100 miles (160 km). One of the tornadoes produced estimated F4 damage on the Fujita scale; it remains one of only two F4 tornadoes to strike the U.S. state of Florida, the other of which occurred in 1958.[1] Both F4 tornadoes occurred during El Niño years.[2] Eleven people were killed across the state, including three in the city of Tampa and seven in Polk County. The F4 tornado remains the fourth-deadliest tornado event recorded in Florida; only tornadoes on March 1962, February 2007, and February 1998 caused more deaths in the state.

F4 Largo to N of Merritt Island Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Brevard 1300 135.8 miles (218.5 km) 11 deaths – See section on this tornado – 300 people received injuries.[8] One or two homes incurred F4 damage in Gibsonia. It is probable that the event constituted a tornado family, and the total path length may have been less than is officially listed.[5]

F3 S of St. Petersburg to Cocoa Beach Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Brevard 1315 123.3 miles (198.4 km) See section on this tornado – This event may have contained multiple tornadoes, which would constitute another tornado family.[5][9]

Largo to Merritt Island[edit]
The first tornado touched down around 8:00 a.m. near Largo, Florida, in Pinellas County. It damaged 36–40 houses in the Saint Petersburg and Clearwater areas.[6][9] Later, it continued across the northern side of Tampa, where it demolished 150–158 homes and caused significant damages to 186 residences.[5][6][10] The tornado caused damage to a junior high school,[9] and it ripped roofs from homes and one dormitory on the University of South Florida's campus.[5] Losses in the Tampa Bay area reached $4,000,000 (1966 USD).[5] The tornado moved east-northeast into Polk County and progressed over the northern sides of Lakeland and Saint Cloud. Gibsonia and Galloway received the most severe damages in Polk County; more than 100 homes were demolished in the area, and seven deaths occurred. The tornado also destroyed several trailers from the Lake Juliana area near Auburndale to north of Haines City.[9] It eventually moved over the Cocoa area and lifted between Courtenay and Merritt Island. The tornado produced F4 damage in Polk County,[5] and it was significantly more damaging than the second one; total damages reached $5–50 million (1966 USD).

Read more
Quoting 68. barbamz:

Scary in-depth-article:
Brazilians hoard water, prepare for possible drastic rationing
Reuters, By Caroline Stauffer, SAO PAULO Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:03pm GMT

Solar and Cistern!! Don't hesitate. Why rely on your local municipality. It's a no brainer especially in the case of contaminated water. Have a back up plan.
We plan for hurricanes so why not have the option with a second water source.

Interestingly enough I received a letter in January from the local water authority telling me my water was questionable for the months of November an December. Thanks for letting us know!!
Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Despite how weary
Boston residents may be
No changes in the future
Do I see


Burma Shave!
Hey guys, as mentioned yesterday I am starting a Wunderblog detailing weather across the southeast, tropical weather, and major weather headlines both nationally and globally. I just completed my first blog entry. I invite you all to check it out if you wish. I am always up for suggestions and discussion, so don't be shy to drop on by. (I won't be doing these plugs all the time either :) )

Hope you guys like it,
"Typhoonty"
Link








Are you kidding me?
Quoting 95. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Not true at all. Those begging for snow are not likely begging for a crippling blizzard, they just are so accustomed to seeing snow year in and year out that this season has underperformed in some areas, while overperformed in other areas such as Boston. Also, some ski resorts in the Appalachians I'm sure could use the snow.

By the way am I the only one starting to get sick and tired of seeing these same arguments over and over again about how other people are wishing for some kind of weather phenomenon.

Picture this if weather was boring all the time which is basically like saying no precipitation then we would have more droughts like California and Brazil. IMHO droughts are more ruinous than floods, hurricanes, blizzards, and tornadoes combined. Just look up the monetary value. Most droughts exceed billions of dollars in damages or losses however you look at it, not saying the later can't exceed that value i.e Sandy, Katrina, India's monsoon floods, Storm of the Century, April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak.

And as far as taxes go every US citizen or resident as far as I know pays taxes in this country (rich or poor), I would much rather pay it towards clean-up and recovery efforts or better yet put it towards some good use like building sound, stable structures that could withstand the wrath of natures fury, then the bimbos and busters who clog up the states prisons.
Good post GT most people in the city of D.C are within walking distance of a store or transit system.I pay taxes as well and I know where they are going to after a rough winter.No one is calling for snowmeggedon part 2 but snow is a nice addition in the winter to the dull lifeless scene here.We only have 3 maybe in lucky years 4 months to see it.After all it is frozen rain but its special for both children and adults.
From WIRED.com:

How Snow Can Cripple Boston’s Subway Cars
By Jordan Golson 02.11.15 8:24 pm


A snow-covered third rail caused an MBTA train in Quincy, Mass. to get stuck between the Quincy Adams and Quincy Center stations. Passengers had to be rescued by the Quincy Fire Department. Photo: David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe/Getty Images

Earlier this week, 48 people were stranded for hours before being rescued from a subway train that suffered a power failure in the midst of a blizzard. Firefighters were forced to clear a path through the snow so passengers could make their way to shuttle buses and continue their journey. Part of the problem? A significant portion of Boston’s subway cars aren’t made for running in heavy snow.

The train failure was reportedly related to older direct current-powered (DC) traction motors, which can suck snow into the air intake, where it melts and causes electrical problems. Newer induction motors powered by AC current are simpler and more reliable thanks to better electrical controls, fewer moving parts, and a design that is better at keeping out the elements.
Full article

(I was not aware of this before reading the article, but I would bet there are some train buffs on here that are already knowledgeable about this.)


On the topic of the blog post, it might be worth noting that Hurricane Ekeka from 1992 achieved peak intensity of a category 3 hurricane just on the other side of the Dateline on February 2nd. It wasn't technically in the WPac at the time (it would later cross over after peak intensity), but it was a similar strength storm that also existed within the bounds of February at a further east location.

Link

Quoting 100. TimTheWxMan:



Might finally get more than a dusting of snow here in NE Kansas. At this point, I'd be fine without it; maybe we can go an entire winter without the ground ever being covered.
Quoting LAbonbon:
From WIRED.com:

How Snow Can Cripple Boston%u2019s Subway Cars
By Jordan Golson 02.11.15 8:24 pm


A snow-covered third rail caused an MBTA train in Quincy, Mass. to get stuck between the Quincy Adams and Quincy Center stations. Passengers had to be rescued by the Quincy Fire Department. Photo: David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe/Getty Images

Earlier this week, 48 people were stranded for hours before being rescued from a subway train that suffered a power failure in the midst of a blizzard. Firefighters were forced to clear a path through the snow so passengers could make their way to shuttle buses and continue their journey. Part of the problem? A significant portion of Boston%u2019s subway cars aren%u2019t made for running in heavy snow.

The train failure was reportedly related to older direct current-powered (DC) traction motors, which can suck snow into the air intake, where it melts and causes electrical problems. Newer induction motors powered by AC current are simpler and more reliable thanks to better electrical controls, fewer moving parts, and a design that is better at keeping out the elements.
Full article

(I was not aware of this before reading the article, but I would bet there are some train buffs on here that are already knowledgeable about this.)


You rang? :-) I should post some of my train pictures one of these days. As you can see from the picture, the "subway" cars aren't really in a subway. The MBTA only runs a relatively short distance underground. Once they are on the surface, some of this disruption is almost inevitable when using a third rail...but it shouldn't shut down the entire system. If those cars had been equipped with a pantograph in addition to a third rail shoe there wouldn't be this many issues. Overhead wires naturally shed snow while third rails get so clogged with snow that the shoe loses contact and the train is then stuck. The real problem with the MBTA is that they've gone deeply into debt to extend their rail system instead of reequipping the system with newer equipment. They also don't have enough sweeper cars to clear the track and third rail. They could use "pioneer cars" that just keep running over the line 24 hours a day to keep the third rail clear. They could use better scheduling so AC cars are on the surface while keeping the DC underground. They could use someone in charge who's not a little nuts as well. Miss "Bev" only arrived in Boston two years ago after spending part of her career wrecking the Atlanta system. I don't think she actually understands how the technical details of the Boston system works, and she bought in people who don't understand some of the issues either. She has a management style that can be charitably described as erratic. She should never have been hired and it's good she's going to be gone. Now maybe some of the old hands can start running the system again.
Wow, Bastardi hammering Dr. Mann on twitter tonight for his inane comments about the SST anomalies off Cape Cod and how they "fed" the blizzard last weekend. Meanwhile, good point by Bastardi that only 1.10" liquid equivalent fell. The 20:1 snow ratio created the large snowfall totals.

Link
Am I the only one who sees the font in the quote box look like it came from a printer that's almost out of ink? At least they were able to fix everything when they did their middle of the day maintenance for what seemed like longer than 15-30 minutes.
Whatever happened to relatively cold spells that used to threaten south Florida during winters back in the good old days? Just like pathetic hurricane seasons South Florida is having pathetic winters. Miami can barely get any winter days that fail to reach 70 degrees or mornings with lows below the upper 40s, let alone any 30s. I don't understand it. Any insight on this?
Bonnie, I was at the Mall of Louisiana today. Next time I go, I'm definitely WU mailing you to come and meet me. :)
Quoting 106. sar2401:

You rang? :-) I should post some of my train pictures one of these days. As you can see from the picture, the "subway" cars aren't really in a subway. The MBTA only runs a relatively short distance underground. Once they are on the surface, some of this disruption is almost inevitable when using a third rail...but it shouldn't shut down the entire system. If those cars had been equipped with a pantograph in addition to a third rail shoe there wouldn't be this many issues. Overhead wires naturally shed snow while third rails get so clogged with snow that the shoe loses contact and the train is then stuck. The real problem with the MBTA is that they've gone deeply into debt to extend their rail system instead of reequipping the system with newer equipment. They also don't have enough sweeper cars to clear the track and third rail. They could use "pioneer cars" that just keep running over the line 24 hours a day to keep the third rail clear. They could use better scheduling so AC cars are on the surface while keeping the DC underground. They could use someone in charge who's not a little nuts as well. Miss "Bev" only arrived in Boston two years ago after spending part of her career wrecking the Atlanta system. I don't think she actually understand how the technical details of how the Boston system works, and she bought in people who don't understand some of the issues either. She has a management style that can be charitably described as erratic. She should never have been hired and it's good she's going to be gone. Now maybe some of the old hands can start running the system again.

I knew in a crowd of people who have weather stations in their back yards there were likely some folks who had train sets set up in their houses as kids :) Now that I've looked up 'pantograph' and 'third rail shoe' I get what you're saying.

I've ridden the trains in Boston many times (and BTW, there it's referred to as 'the T'). I wonder why they would look outside of their own for someone to head the MBTA...why not promote from within?

(Edit: minor typo)
Quoting Chucktown:
Wow, Bastardi hammering Dr. Mann on twitter tonight for his inane comments about the SST anomalies off Cape Cod and how they "fed" the blizzard last weekend. Meanwhile, good point by Bastardi that only 1.10" liquid equivalent fell. The 20:1 snow ratio created the large snowfall totals.

Link
I sure wish Big Joe would learn about proofreading when he's on Twitter. Regardless, he does have a point. Dr. Mann is not a meteorologist. He's a physicist that became a climatologist. There is a difference, and his tweet about an 11.5 C anomaly is clearly wrong. This is the kind of thing that happens when one goes beyond his area of expertise.

"Fire when ready, Gridley". :-)
Quoting lobdelse81:
Whatever happened to relatively cold spells that used to threaten south Florida during winters back in the good old days? Just like pathetic hurricane seasons South Florida is having pathetic winters. Miami can barely get any winter days that fail to reach 70 degrees or mornings with lows below the upper 40s, let alone any 30s. I don't understand it. Any insight on this?
Sure. Look at Key West. It's moving toward you. If you want cool weather in the winter, move north now.
Quoting 110. KoritheMan:

Bonnie, I was at the Mall of Louisiana today. Next time I go, I'm definitely WU mailing you to come and meet me. :)


Sure, Kori, if I'm able to, I will...I'm not much of a shopper, though.

Quoting 114. LAbonbon:


Sure, Kori, if I'm able to, I will...I'm not much of a shopper, though.
Neither am I. But there's like... a million different restaurants we could eat at.

Or do you not want me to talk your ear off?
Quoting 68. barbamz:

Scary in-depth-article:
Brazilians hoard water, prepare for possible drastic rationing
Reuters, By Caroline Stauffer, SAO PAULO Wed Feb 11, 2015 8:03pm GMT


Scary indeed! I really feel for these people.
Quoting 115. KoritheMan:


Neither am I. But there's like... a million different restaurants we could eat at.

Or do you not want me to talk your ear off?


Now that's more like it. Food and conversation I can do!
Quoting 104. BleachwaterFox:



Might finally get more than a dusting of snow here in NE Kansas. At this point, I'd be fine without it; maybe we can go an entire winter without the ground ever being covered.


Well, I'm by St. Louis so there may be at most 5-7 inches of snow.
bonnie wants me to talk her ear off

rawr rawr yay!

:D
Quoting LAbonbon:

I knew in a crowd of people who have weather stations in their back yards there were likely some folks who had train sets set up in their houses as kids :) Now that I've looked up 'pantograph' and 'third rail shoe' I get what you're saying.

I've ridden the trains in Boston many times (and BTW, there it's referred to as 'the T'). I wonder why they would look outside of their own for a someone to head the MBTA...why not promote from within?
Just to show you what a freak I am, I had a pretty big model railroad in the basement until about 5 years ago, so it's not just when we were kids. :-)

Yeah, I know it's the "T" up there, I just didn't know how many people on the blog would know that. There's nothing unusual about having a third rail above ground. A lot of the New York/New Jersey system runs on a third rail. There's just no other transit system that has a third rail, antique trains, and is in area that gets lots of snow. This is not the first time that the T has had trouble with snow. It's just a lot worse than other times. There are old hands at the T that know how to deal with this kind of problem. With the arrival of Miss Bev, they have just been marginalized by Miss Bev's crew. I don't really know why she would have been hired. She was about to get fired in Atlanta. The senior staff was in open revolt, and they had to hire a psychologist to "counsel her to try to tone down her harsh language and weird management style. I assume there was a fair bit of politics involved in the decision to appoint her. She was getting paid an unbelievable $330,000 a year to run Atlanta into the ground, and took the T job for a mere $200,000. That should tell you all you need to know about how valuable a find she was.
GFS 00z has trended more favorably for the Mid-Atlantic states for early next weeks system. 6-8 inches in and around the DC area with heigher amounts to the north and west. We get mostly snow before switching over the sleet or freezing rain as temps never get above freezing.
Quoting 109. lobdelse81:

Whatever happened to relatively cold spells that used to threaten south Florida during winters back in the good old days? Just like pathetic hurricane seasons South Florida is having pathetic winters. Miami can barely get any winter days that fail to reach 70 degrees or mornings with lows below the upper 40s, let alone any 30s. I don't understand it. Any insight on this?


A string of warm winters. But you only have to go back to January 2010 to get a really persistantly cold one with frost all the way to the tip of the peninsula even though it wasn't particularly cold in the rest of the U.S outside of the southeast.
Quoting 118. TimTheWxMan:



Well, I'm by St. Louis so there may be at most 5-7 inches of snow.


I'm about halfway between Kansas City and Topeka, KS in this little dry pocket that keeps forming. We miss everything up by the Nebraska border and all of the snow heavy systems to the west. (Side note: that seems to be the story for all seasons around these parts. Crazy hail/thunder/snow storm coming at us? Nope, splits or dissipates about 20 miles away. Most people think I'm crazy for getting disappointed about things like that.)

Now I'm just hoping that it warms back up a bit after this system moves through. It had been nice and mild (low 50s) for the most part over the past few weeks. I suppose this is a whole lot of complaining for someone with a whole lot fewer problems than either coast. No horrible drought or absurd amounts of snow, so I can just deal with it.
Quoting 102. LAbonbon:

From WIRED.com:

How Snow Can Cripple Boston’s Subway Cars
By Jordan Golson 02.11.15 8:24 pm


A snow-covered third rail caused an MBTA train in Quincy, Mass. to get stuck between the Quincy Adams and Quincy Center stations. Passengers had to be rescued by the Quincy Fire Department. Photo: David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe/Getty Images

Earlier this week, 48 people were stranded for hours before being rescued from a subway train that suffered a power failure in the midst of a blizzard. Firefighters were forced to clear a path through the snow so passengers could make their way to shuttle buses and continue their journey. Part of the problem? A significant portion of Boston’s subway cars aren’t made for running in heavy snow.

The train failure was reportedly related to older direct current-powered (DC) traction motors, which can suck snow into the air intake, where it melts and causes electrical problems. Newer induction motors powered by AC current are simpler and more reliable thanks to better electrical controls, fewer moving parts, and a design that is better at keeping out the elements.
Full article

(I was not aware of this before reading the article, but I would bet there are some train buffs on here that are already knowledgeable about this.)





DC metrorail has this problem and the aboveground portion shuts down by policy when more than 8" of snow occurs.

Quoting 120. sar2401:

Just to show you what a freak I am, I had a pretty big model railroad in the basement until about 5 years ago, so it's not just when we were kids. :-)
Me and my brother literally just bought two miniature figurines of iconic video game characters at the mall tonight. Age is just a number.
Well, it's late, and I've absorbed 7 of Brian's articles (which might be a personal best in one sitting)...so it's well past the time for me to turn in.

& sar - everyone has hobbies :)

Good night, all.
Quoting 126. LAbonbon:

Well, it's late, and I've absorbed 7 of Brian's articles (which might be a personal best in one sitting)...so it's well past the time for me to turn in.

& sar - everyone has hobbies :)

Good night, all.
I slept terribly last night. I'm probably going to head to bed unusually early tonight as well.
Launch.. SpaceX carrying DSCVR
Quoting KoritheMan:

I slept terribly last night. I'm probably going to head to bed unusually early as well.
Hi Kori, I know you won't be up long, but could give your analysis on the possible winter storm next week.

Quoting 129. Andrebrooks:

Hi Kori, I know you won't be up long, but could give your analysis on the possible winter storm next week.
I don't like delineating snow specifics this far out, but there's at least potential across New England. Nothing over here though, if that's what you're thinking.

That being said, I'm more confident this next Arctic shot will not moderate appreciably since there is more snow cover this time around.
Quoting 123. BleachwaterFox:



I'm about halfway between Kansas City and Topeka, KS in this little dry pocket that keeps forming. We miss everything up by the Nebraska border and all of the snow heavy systems to the west. (Side note: that seems to be the story for all seasons around these parts. Crazy hail/thunder/snow storm coming at us? Nope, splits or dissipates about 20 miles away. Most people think I'm crazy for getting disappointed about things like that.)

Now I'm just hoping that it warms back up a bit after this system moves through. It had been nice and mild (low 50s) for the most part over the past few weeks. I suppose this is a whole lot of complaining for someone with a whole lot fewer problems than either coast. No horrible drought or absurd amounts of snow, so I can just deal with it.



The same thing happened here last year. Every line of storms fell apart a couple counties west of downtown. Every watch was always one county to the west. :/
Quoting Chucktown:
Wow, Bastardi hammering Dr. Mann on twitter tonight for his inane comments about the SST anomalies off Cape Cod and how they "fed" the blizzard last weekend. Meanwhile, good point by Bastardi that only 1.10" liquid equivalent fell. The 20:1 snow ratio created the large snowfall totals.

Link
Ah, Bastardi. It takes a special type of denialism to contort facts enough to claim that by far the most snow ever recorded in a city that's been keeping track of such things for many tens of thousands of days is not remarkable because the snow's water content wasn't as high as he thought it should be.

Sigh...

It also takes a person almost entirely devoid of knowledge of physics to be unable to grasp the very simple fact that cyclonic systems moving over warmer waters tend to strengthen those cyclones. Although I suppose that might help explain why he has such a problem understanding tropical cyclogenesis, now that I think about it...

Perhap instead of trying and failing yet again to 'hammer' a respected and extremely knowledgeable climate scientist, Bastardi might want to spend some time 'hammering' way at some science books. Maybe?
Quoting 107. Chucktown:

Wow, Bastardi hammering Dr. Mann on twitter tonight for his inane comments about the SST anomalies off Cape Cod and how they "fed" the blizzard last weekend. Meanwhile, good point by Bastardi that only 1.10" liquid equivalent fell. The 20:1 snow ratio created the large snowfall totals.

Link

Meanwhile, 3.20" of liquid fell at my house in Truckee, CA, and I mean liquid. Not a speck of snow on the ground at 5900', and I saw the first buttercups blooming today.
134. OCF
Quoting Dakster:
How's California PedleyCA?

Speaking for myself, I'll say stinko hot. Hot enough to turn the auto AC on, despite zilch humidity (offshore flow). At the height the afternoon here in Long Beach, we had a temperature of 87° and a dew point of 11°. (My poor nasal passages.)

One of my markers for the progress of winter here is "apparent visible snow level" - the approximate altitude from which is is obvious to someone looking with the naked eye from 30+ miles away that there's snow. (Of course, on many days there's too much low-level moisture to really see.) It would be fairly typical at this time of year for the "apparent visible snow level" to be somewhere around 7500 or 8000 feet - well above the top of Mt. Wilson (which is below 6000) but showing a good array of snowy tops on the "back range" of the San Gabriels - Throop, Baden-Powell, mountains like that. Well, that level is now pegged at "above 10000 feet", meaning that the top of Mt. Baldy (at 10000) looks like bare rock (sometimes a little hard to tell for sure, since it's light-colored rock) and I don't have the angle or distance to see anything higher than that.
Quoting 133. oldnewmex:


Meanwhile, 3.20" of liquid fell at my house in Truckee, CA, and I mean liquid. Not a speck of snow on the ground at 5900', and I saw the first buttercups blooming today.


I can see the lack of snow in the mountains on my way home and it is quite concerning. We need that snowpack



wow 962MB LOW
Quoting 136. hurricanes2018:




wow 962MB LOW


ECMWF certainly paints a horrendous picture for us in ME this weekend. Local media outlets already pushing the 1 to 2 foot forecast with winds over 40 mph. Even if we get no snow, the wind is a lock and will cause considerable blowing and drifting.
140. beell
This event(s) may be an over-performer for the Ohio River Valley as a 30-50 knot LLJ upglides over the top of the cold surface air. Perhaps the potential for freezing rain is not well-captured either.
If you're tired of the New England Snow story...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2015 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2015

DAYS 4-6---DIGGING ENERGY INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD---AND MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THEN EXITS THE NORTHEAST COAST. ITS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING A SERIES OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENTS ATOP THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC BOUNDARY IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS AND WITHIN THE I-40/I-70 FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FOUR-CORNERS SHORTWAVE...SHOULD GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

VOJTESAK
Looks Like Sunday funday here coming up! Fingers crossed! (euro has 961mb just off shore) :)
Quoting 112. sar2401:

I sure wish Big Joe would learn about proofreading when he's on Twitter. Regardless, he does have a point. Dr. Mann is not a meteorologist. He's a physicist that became a climatologist. There is a difference, and his tweet about an 11.5 C anomaly is clearly wrong. This is the kind of thing that happens when one goes beyond his area of expertise.

"Fire when ready, Gridley". :-)

FYI:

Michael E. Mann - Distinguished Professor of Meteorology
Joint Appointment with the Department of Geosciences
Director, Earth System Science Center


Joe Bastardi - weather forecaster and science denier

Lol, clearing the road from snow the Turkish way (video from today from Konya):



Maybe Boston should have a look? :-)
Good morning from Rhine on Thursday of traditionell "Women's Carnival" - the launch of five days of craziness in the streets.
Anyone remember playing 'operator' as a kid? (Whisper something in someone's ear, they whisper to someone, and so on, until the message comes back around bearing no resemblance to the original message.)

Someone posts a tweet, someone else reacts in a tweet (or in this case, a series of tweets), someone posts about a tweet response to a tweet in a blog comment...

My opinion (FWIW)...science really can't be relayed effectively in a tweet...
Quoting 128. Skyepony:

Launch.. SpaceX carrying DSCVR



Yeah!!
Bit nippy here (for us) ... from this mornings NWS Key West discussion

.DISCUSSION...
A GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE HAS KEPT AIR TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW 60F IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES THUS FAR OVERNIGHT.
THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR COMMUNITIES IN WESTERN CUBA WHERE A
COMBINATION OF LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND RADIATIVE COOLING HAVE
ALLOWED AIR TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 46F AT BOTH HAVANA AND
VARADERO...SOME 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN HERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
forecasted surface temps as of 7 pm est this evening


sunday windchills 06z gfs depiction little nippy to say the least



The always reliable GFS snowfall forecast showing snow in FL at 162 hours.
Quoting 98. beell:



Burma Shave!


Now that's dating yourself.
Joe Bastardi - weather forecaster and science denier, and ..................... Don't forget bodybuilder.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE CNTRL CONUS DEVELOPING A COASTAL LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LONG EVENT POSSIBLE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALL SAID AND DONE. CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET...MAY
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/SRN MD...THEN BACK TO SNOW
ALL SNOW ON BACK SIDE. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SO WENT FOR LIKELY POPS. DETAILS TO BE GIVEN AS THIS
APPROACHES...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW DURING THIS TIME.

Honestly I saw a bunch of angry Bostonian's on a weather board last night so even though I honestly don't care if it snows again this year I'll take one for the team.They said we were bragging down here in the Mid-atlantic about our almost 70 degree day and snow free cover XD.

06.02.2015: Being snowed in is definitely not an option for this kitty
The great escape! Rudiger the cat burrows through 4ft of snow piled against front door to break outside James Gilfoy from Canada filmed his pet feline Rudider making a bid for freedom at the front door following a wintry storm
Quoting Xandra:

FYI:

Michael E. Mann - Distinguished Professor of Meteorology
Joint Appointment with the Department of Geosciences
Director, Earth System Science Center


Joe Bastardi - weather forecaster and science denier



One Bastardi is a professional meteorologist, not saying I'm a huge fan, but he is.

Link

Two, the SSA you show were no where near the area of low pressure that "bombed" out. Again, only 1.10" of liquid equivalent, that is not unheard of in a nor'easter, in fact it's probably on the low end of the scale for a storm of that magnitude. Why did it snow so much, oh that's right, it was COLD. Ratios were 20-25:1, that's the reason for the high snow amounts.
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE CNTRL CONUS DEVELOPING A COASTAL LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LONG EVENT POSSIBLE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALL SAID AND DONE. CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET...MAY
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/SRN MD...THEN BACK TO SNOW
ALL SNOW ON BACK SIDE. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SO WENT FOR LIKELY POPS. DETAILS TO BE GIVEN AS THIS
APPROACHES...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW DURING THIS TIME.

Honestly I saw a bunch of angry Bostonian's on a weather board last night so even though I honestly don't care if it snows again this year I'll take one for the team.They said we were bragging down here in the Mid-atlantic about our almost 70 degree day and snow free cover XD.
Boston on Monday after the weekend

Nice to see snow filling in on the radar over the area.

Quoting 157. Chucktown:



One Bastardi is a professional meteorologist, not saying I'm a huge fan, but he is.

Link

Two, the SSA you show were no where near the area of low pressure that "bombed" out. Again, only 1.10" of liquid equivalent, that is not unheard of in a nor'easter, in fact it's probably on the low end of the scale for a storm of that magnitude. Why did it snow so much, oh that's right, it was COLD. Ratios were 20-25:1, that's the reason for the high snow amounts.

distant offshore ocean effect moisture flux traveling across and over the ocean heat content could supply any system with additional moisture given the temp difference between the air and water and flow of air over the water within the system the deeper the low pressure the even greater the effect and how quickly it falls plays a role as well
I am not a meteorologist but I am a good guesser


here we go!!!
Quoting 159. Drakoen:

Nice to see snow filling in on the radar over the area.


Some people are already reporting moderate flurries in some parts of V.A.I have not looked outside the window yet.
Quoting 164. washingtonian115:

Some people are already reporting moderate flurries in some parts of V.A.I have not looked outside the window yet.
leading edge of the colder air quick shot then cold
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ah, Bastardi. It takes a special type of denialism to contort facts enough to claim that by far the most snow ever recorded in a city that's been keeping track of such things for many tens of thousands of days is not remarkable because the snow's water content wasn't as high as he thought it should be.

Sigh...

It also takes a person almost entirely devoid of knowledge of physics to be unable to grasp the very simple fact that cyclonic systems moving over warmer waters tend to strengthen those cyclones. Although I suppose that might help explain why he has such a problem understanding tropical cyclogenesis, now that I think about it...

Perhap instead of trying and failing yet again to 'hammer' a respected and extremely knowledgeable climate scientist, Bastardi might want to spend some time 'hammering' way at some science books. Maybe?


Yea, it's called the Gulf Stream, it's always there and you know Dr. Mann is incorrect. Granted SSA are a above normal, but in no way, shape, or form are thay 11.5*C above normal. Warm loop eddies also are evident in that data, but still, it didn't "create" heavier snowfall, liquid eqivalent still was 1.10", that equals 22 inches of snow with an air temperature in the upper teens.
Quoting 97. Abacosurf:

Solar and Cistern!! Don't hesitate. Why rely on your local municipality. It's a no brainer especially in the case of contaminated water. Have a back up plan.
I don't think the millions of people in the favelas (slums) and high-rise apartments of Sao Paulo have those options.



Much of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo - 20 million people - may soon be without water! This could very likely be the first of many disasters of such monumental proportions.

AGW/CC is likely a large influence on causing these drought conditions - including the effects of deforestation, which influences regional weather patterns, especially as a reduction in precipitation.

When there is no water, populations have to leave or die - possibly both. Call me an alarmist if you like, because this is quite alarming.

I'm sure that we will hear from Dr. Masters, Dr. Rood and Bob Henson on this subject periodically as the situation evolves.
Quoting Chucktown:


One Bastardi is a professional meteorologist, not saying I'm a huge fan, but he is.

Link

Two, the SSA you show were no where near the area of low pressure that "bombed" out. Again, only 1.10" of liquid equivalent, that is not unheard of in a nor'easter, in fact it's probably on the low end of the scale for a storm of that magnitude. Why did it snow so much, oh that's right, it was COLD. Ratios were 20-25:1, that's the reason for the high snow amounts.
For all his sycophants rushing to his defense, it's clear that Bastardi was flat wrong in last evening's hysterical Twitter meltdown. Dr. Mann stated that SST anomalies off Cape Cod were 11.5C; data supports that statement. Physics and common sense dictate that such massive anomalies are most definitely contributing to the recent heavy and historic snowfalls in the Northeast. It's inane to claim otherwise. Thus, JB's rage against that statement is nonsense that can and should, quite simply, be ignored.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
distant offshore ocean effect moisture flux traveling across and over the ocean heat content could supply any system with additional moisture given the temp difference between the air and water and flow of air over the water within the system the deeper the low pressure the even greater the effect and how quickly it falls plays a role as well


You are missing the point, yes there was moisture transport, yes there was a bombing storm due to the differential in air versus water temp, but the liquid equivalent remained unchanged. 1.10" is not a lot, if the temp over land was 30*, then we are talking about a normal nor'easter with a foot of snow, but it was the extreme cold that produced all the snow. Same is going to happen this weekend. 20-25:1 ratios will be common once again.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For all his sycophants rushing to his defense, it's clear that Bastardi was flat wrong in last evening's hysterical Twitter meltdown. Dr. Mann stated that SST anomalies off Cape Cod were 11.5C; data supports that statement. Physics and common sense dictate that such massive anomalies are most definitely contributing to the recent heavy and historic snowfalls in the Northeast. It's inane to claim otherwise. Thus, JB's rage against that statement is nonsense that can and should, quite simply, be ignored.


Even if there was a small "pixel" of 11.5, do really think that fueled the storm? Again look at the actual liquid that fell, not all that impressive, land temperature anomalies, now that is impressive. Facts are facts...
New BBC 3 part series Planet Oil – Our addiction to crude –

http://youtu.be/NwenDNxBVjE
Quoting 167. Xulonn:

I don't think the millions of people in the favelas (slums) and high-rise apartments of Sao Paulo have those options.



Much of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo - 20 million people - may soon be without water! This could very likely be the first of many disasters of such monumental proportions.

AGW/CC is likely a large influence on causing these drought conditions - including the effects of deforestation, which influences regional weather patterns, especially as a reduction in precipitation.

When there is no water, populations have to leave or die - possibly both. Call me an alarmist if you like, because this is quite alarming.

I'm sure that we will hear from Dr. Masters, Dr. Rood and Bob Henson on this subject periodically as the situation evolves.

eventually I think the amazon may become a large dry region sub desert in type similar to what you find in the western area pacific facing regions with wet zones that will migrate back and forth with the movement of the ITCZ in its seasonal adjustments with climate change some areas could see big changes while others see smaller changes but there is going to be changes


wow!!!
Quoting 112. sar2401:

I sure wish Big Joe would learn about proofreading when he's on Twitter. Regardless, he does have a point. Dr. Mann is not a meteorologist. He's a physicist that became a climatologist. There is a difference, and his tweet about an 11.5 C anomaly is clearly wrong. This is the kind of thing that happens when one goes beyond his area of expertise.

"Fire when ready, Gridley". :-)


According to several different sources (NOAA, UNISYS, etc.), the SST anomalies off the coast are right around there. It's hard to tell really since the upper end of their color scales don't go that high (most stop around 4C). But here is one showing a warm pool that is at least 8C above normal of the coast. And again, here is one from UNISYS that also shows 8C anomalies. ESRL's maps max at 4C, which shows a large area of warmer water. Or here, but again the scale tops out.

So no, he wasn't wrong. It's right there. You can even go download the SREF data and examine it yourself (Panoply or IDV, though IDV is a little heavy).
Good Morning Folks. Just waiting to see how the models do on the potential strength and trajectory of the next low for the NE. They certainly don't need more snow in those parts. The need more snow/snow-pack in the West-NW but this persistent jet pattern with the warm sector there is not helping much and now we have a potential fire threat emerging. Also wondering what the jet-pattern will settle into for the severe weather season in the mid-west this year but that is several weeks away and no telling what will happen in March and April. Here is the big picture snapshot for Conus from NWS today:

Dangerous wind chills continue for the Upper Midwest; Santa Ana winds bring increased fire danger for southern California. A strong arctic cold front is bringing bitterly cold air and brisk, northwest winds to the Upper Midwest, creating dangerous wind chill values through Thursday morning. Some locations could see wind chill temperatures as low as 35 degrees below zero. Out west, a Santa Ana Wind event is bringing strong winds to parts of southern California. With dry conditions, increased fire danger is expected.

Not the most optimistic forecast for today......................................
Quoting 175. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks. Just waiting to see how the models do on the potential strength and trajectory of the next low for the NE. They certainly don't need more snow in those parts. The need more snow/snow-pack in the West-NW but this persistent jet pattern with the warm sector there is not helping much and now we have a potential fire threat emerging. Also wondering what the jet-pattern will settle into for the severe weather season in the mid-west this year but that is several weeks away and no telling what will happen in March and April. Here is the big picture snapshot for Conus from NWS today:

Dangerous wind chills continue for the Upper Midwest; Santa Ana winds bring increased fire danger for southern California

A strong arctic cold front is bringing bitterly cold air and brisk, northwest winds to the Upper Midwest, creating dangerous wind chill values through Thursday morning. Some locations could see wind chill temperatures as low as 35 degrees below zero. Out west, a Santa Ana Wind event is bringing strong winds to parts of southern California. With dry conditions, increased fire danger is expected. 


watch out if you live in new haven to boston big time snow storm for them!!
Quoting 169. Chucktown:



You are missing the point, yes there was moisture transport, yes there was a bombing storm due to the differential in air versus water temp, but the liquid equivalent remained unchanged. 1.10" is not a lot, if the temp over land was 30*, then we are talking about a normal nor'easter with a foot of snow, but it was the extreme cold that produced all the snow. Same is going to happen this weekend. 20-25:1 ratios will be common once again.
I am not disagreeing with ya just throwing in my thoughts that's all and we will put everything together and come up with a reasonable explanation that's what I like about the blog take everyones input and eventually u will get a reasonable answer
Monster hurricanes struck U.S. Northeast during prehistoric periods of ocean warming

Warmer sea surface temperatures

The intense prehistoric hurricanes were fueled in part by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean than have been the norm off the U.S. East Coast over the last few hundred years.

However, as ocean temperatures have slowly inched upward in recent decades, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels--and are expected to warm more over the next century as the climate heats up, Donnelly said.

"We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate," Donnelly said. "We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.

"The risk may be much greater than we anticipated."


Link
Valentine's Weekend Snowstorm Possible; New England Could See Blizzard Conditions
Published Feb 12 2015 08:12 AM EST A Valentine's weekend snowstorm is increasingly possible in New England, and it has the potential to dump a foot or more of additional snowfall on snow-weary locations such as Bangor, Maine, and Boston.

This potential snowstorm would be accompanied by strong winds that could create blizzard conditions and bitter cold temperatures.

are you ready for a blizzard number two!!
178. ColoradoBob1
9:21 AM EST on February 12, 2015

Interesting point. You see a lot of conspiracy and alien type shows on the "sudden" disappearance of the Maya civilization in Central America.........I tend to lean in the direction of a massive Cat 4 or 5 cane that may have blown and flooded them out just leaving the stone temples and ruins.
However, the trend is increasingly toward a track close enough to bring heavy snow and wind to at least coastal New England. Here's our latest forecast timeline:

Friday: Another arctic front will spread a stripe of mainly light snow and gusty winds through the Great Lakes.

Saturday: Light to moderate snow spreads from the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast as the arctic front advances. Snow is possible from the Appalachians and Virginia north to New York state and much of New England by afternoon (see map at left).

Saturday night: Heavy snow and increasing wind possible in New England, particularly near the coast from Maine to southeast Massachusetts. Snow and wind also farther west over the Hudson Valley, NYC metro, central/western New York, northern Pennsylvania, at least northern New Jersey.

Sunday: Heavy snow and high winds possible in much of New England. Blizzard conditions possible. Snow winds down farther west.

Sunday night: Snow may linger in Maine, Cape Cod, but should taper off elsewhere. Significant blowing/drifting snow continues over much of New England.
RE the Bastardi thing, TWC cited SSTs as a definite factor in the snow numerous times on air, noting the obvious physics involved. They did not mention or cite Michael Mann.
What happened to StormTrackerScott?
Quoting 183. tampabaymatt:

What happened to StormTrackerScott?
yeah ive been wondering also..anyone know?
Quoting 167. Xulonn:

I don't think the millions of people in the favelas (slums) and high-rise apartments of Sao Paulo have those options.



Much of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo - 20 million people - may soon be without water! This could very likely be the first of many disasters of such monumental proportions.

AGW/CC is likely a large influence on causing these drought conditions - including the effects of deforestation, which influences regional weather patterns, especially as a reduction in precipitation.

When there is no water, populations have to leave or die - possibly both. Call me an alarmist if you like, because this is quite alarming.

I'm sure that we will hear from Dr. Masters, Dr. Rood and Bob Henson on this subject periodically as the situation evolves.



I REALLY feel like birth-control could've improved this situation, insteada folks breeding like bunnies
cause some man-made religion says they should
Euro is more aggressive with next weeks system...so far..

I think someone here should just stop reposting whatever comes across their twitter feed, especially that last debacle where they accused Bill Nye of not posting a picture of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, when in fact it was, and when confronted with that data, blamed Bill Nye for their own mistake. Maybe social networking is not your cup of tea.
Quoting 185. aquak9:



I REALLY feel like birth-control could've improved this situation, insteada folks breeding like bunnies
cause some man-made religion says they should


I firmly believe that some sort of population control established a century ago would have solved the vast majority of the world's problems. It amazes me that as certain things (environment issues, poverty, terrorism, etc..) continue to worsen, this is never brought up by politicians as a way out of our messes. I certainly don't know the right way to implement this, but it is definitely needed.
Quoting 184. LargoFl:

yeah ive been wondering also..anyone know?
his last post on his blog was feb 4 comment 321 that I see strange maybe taking a break we all do that sometimes
190. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
SUBJECT:: as stated in comment# Dr, Masters#   how apparently nothing turns into something. (noticed the cursor circled the area in the GoMx while only pointing out other clouds., how could i know well some MODELs had this but i used the knowledge of what i posted as to Feb ~11th 2012 that got SAR2401 ~~naucious)
D&T:: Kind of on the animation panel, 2 errors:: the date is of the LOADING IMAGE & the last digit in the time was cut off as i underestimated how much "0" ate at pre-mardi Gras. Oh and for some reason its the 3rd storm in 2 weeks where just as its to "blossom" SAT imagery GOES out.

http://youtu.be/sJ8tt_lsnv0 (724x646)


Quoting 185. aquak9:



I REALLY feel like birth-control could've improved this situation, insteada folks breeding like bunnies
cause some man-made religion says they should
Big fat plus for this.
Quoting 186. hydrus:

Euro is more aggressive with next weeks system...so far..


I was thinking that may track towards us a little closer and see something from it the weekend we see some sat but the cold is the story here
Quoting 164. washingtonian115:

Some people are already reporting moderate flurries in some parts of V.A.I have not looked outside the window yet.


Light snow here. I'm hoping that line to our north holds together.
Quoting 183. tampabaymatt:

What happened to StormTrackerScott?
He probably got tired of the Florida beach bullies kicking sand in his face and went out to the Pacific to enjoy the El Niño by himself.
Quoting 185. aquak9:



I REALLY feel like birth-control could've improved this situation, insteada folks breeding like bunnies
cause some man-made religion says they should


Human nature, like bunnies' nature, is to reproduce.
maybe a blizzard watches going up for the northeast on friday night to new haven to boston this storm need to be watch waiting for the new weather modeles coming out soon!!


very bad news here for the northeast
Quoting 195. Midnight092289:



Human nature, like bunnies' nature, is to reproduce.

we are nearing 20 billion over time come and gone for our planet
we reproduce well
problem is there are more living longer than ever before at the moment anyway
we have greatly increase our life span the last 500 years or so
Quoting 192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I was thinking that may track towards us a little closer and see something from it the weekend we see some sat but the cold is the story here
Greetings Keep. Confidence is low with the current forecasts. They have mentioned a possible over running event , which means the ice may become a problem for many. The cold is certainly an issue , especially with the wind.
Quoting 185. aquak9:



I REALLY feel like birth-control could've improved this situation, insteada folks breeding like bunnies
cause some man-made religion says they should

Brazil's birthrate is not much higher than the US. Wiki

Brazil's birthrate has been more than halved since 1980. World Bank

Several US states have a higher birthrate than Brazil. Kaiser Family Foundation

Brazil's fertility rate is lower than the U.S.'s Wiki

Depending which fertility rate is used for Brazil, between 43 and 46 US states have a higher fertility rate than Brazil Wiki

Brazil's fertility rate is less than half of what it was in 1980. World Bank

Putting the blame on population and religious directives is relatively easy to do. And in some countries, that may be the case. However, in this situation that does not appear to be the main reason for this. Poverty, lack of economic opportunity and growth, lack of enforced building codes, corruption...there's probably a whole host of factors at play here.
Quoting 199. hydrus:

Greetings Keep. Confidence is low with the current forecasts. They have mentioned a possible over running event , which means the ice may become a problem for many. The cold is certainly an issue , especially with the wind.
morning hydrus ya I was seeing that being said too lots of time to watch got to get pass the weekend event first see where everything is after that
202. jpsb
Quoting 142. Xandra:


FYI:

Michael E. Mann - Distinguished Professor of Meteorology
Joint Appointment with the Department of Geosciences
Director, Earth System Science Center


Joe Bastardi - weather forecaster and science denier



So Dr Mann was correct, there really is/was a 11.5 C warm anomaly off Cape Cod? And Joe Bastardi got it all wrong?
Population control freaks should begin with themselves I firmly believe.

: )

p.s. World War 1 and the Spanish Flu did reduce the population a Century ago.

Facts matta greatly too.
RE: Posts 167, 185. Having been to SAO Paulo and Rio de Janiero a couple of times recently(my uncle lives in SP), I found both cities depressing. The over run by humans is evident EVERYWHERE you turn and look. Rio you have to look close to catch glimpses of the "glamour" from years gone by (think the Bing Crosby, Bob Hope, Frank Sinatra road show movies). Sao Paulo is just, well, Sao Paulo. Definately not a tourist destination, nothing to offer there, other than crowds, people, more crowds, and awful traffic and roads.
Quoting 185. aquak9:



I REALLY feel like birth-control could've improved this situation, insteada folks breeding like bunnies
cause some man-made religion says they should


Why is it that some communities remain small, while existing for centuries, while others have explosions in population, specifically relating to the poor?
I'm not so sure population problems have to do much with religion. Typically speaking, where families stay together, and higher education exists, population stays controlled for the most part. I agree that birth control is necessary, and children are not for everyone. But I don't know about you, but I'm pretty glad my parents chose to have me, and I had no say in such. Therefore, the overpopulation topic is very difficult to handle I think given the broad number of possible reasons, solutions and problems.

With that said, I think it may have to do with other reasons. Areas where sexuality is without protection and there is much crime and poverty, men often jump from woman to woman in uncommitted relationships, which I think is is the biggest cause for poverty, and overpopulation. Children are born rapidly and are dumped off to a woman who is likely also poor and can barely survive a living. It's a common vicious cycle in areas of poverty and oppression.

I think most people know by now that most religious texts being very old discussed the importance of having so many children because for one, the population was small, and two, you and your community could be destroyed and get wiped out of existence. Therefore the more children you have, especially males, the more protection and income potential, and likelyhood of prosperity. Again though, if people don't understand that today, it's still an education issue.
Even still, in the U.S. large families where having a lot of children are most common in rural areas due to more traditional values of having a lot of children, and in such small towns and communities where families have lived for many generations, there are no population problems in these areas.

It seems that population is a biggest issue in urban centers in the area of town where there is greatest poverty and little education. Men behave loosely, jumping from woman, not using protection, and having little education. It's not surprising given that such individuals grow up with a painful life, and such a lifestyle offers a quick fix, whether its drugs sex or alcohol, rather than a hope for strong relationships, careers, and an overall future.
I could be wrong, but the population problem to me has to be solved through giving people education, hope, and love. However actually changing entire communities is no easy feat, that's for sure, but we can all do our part to help.

Anyways, it's a weather blog, so I better end here, lol.
Well, as my uncle explained it to me, it wasn't a birth rate explosion that drove the population of Sao Paulo and RdJ so quickly in the past 25 years, especially the last 10, as it was a migration of people from the interior regions to SP and RdJ in search of jobs. One small case in point as he explained, Volkswagen opened a HUGE car factory in SP which brought in a large population influx. This happened repeatedly in SP in that last 10-15 years especially, and the infrastructure did not keep up with the influx.
Quoting 205. Chucktown:



Oh, you must be referencing me. Yea, Bill Nye was right on, cherry picking that the TOWN of Jackson Hole didn't have much snow, meanwhile Jackson Hole Ski Area has seen 94 inches of snow so far this season. You accuse the folks that don't accept the AGW theory of cherry picking, but I guess its OK for "The Science Guy" (mechanical engineer) to stir the pot with climate change guesses, just because the TOWN of Jackson Hole is almost snow free. Get a life.


Jackson Hole Ski Resort averages 459" inches of snow a winter (on the upper part of the mountain). As of today (according to the ski resort website) they have accumulated 277" on the upper mountain and 241" at mid mountain. That means they need another 182 inches to get to average. Where did you get your 94" as total year to date accumulation? The upper mountain depth is 90", so that may be what you are referring to. I have to agree with Bill Nye, for the town to have no snow on the ground at any point during the winter season is quite rare. Again, this whole story is more about snowfall amounts being quite low at lower elevations (where they used to be plentiful).
Quoting 203. Patrap:

Population control freaks should begin with themselves I firmly believe.

: )

p.s. World War 1 and the Spanish Flu did reduce the population a Century ago.

Facts matta greatly too.


just thought id come in and attempt to change the subject.

my daughter had her first bowl of gumbo the other day and she absolutely love it. it was kinda of cool cause it was done by someone born & bread in nola :)
Quoting 202. jpsb:



So Dr Mann was correct, there really is/was a 11.5 C warm anomaly off Cape Cod? And Joe Bastardi got it all wrong?



Dr Mann is both correct and misleading about the 11.5C anomaly. THis part of the ocean has a very large temperature gradient and a slight displacement of the Gulf Stream or a loop in it can produce such large
departures over a small (100km scale) area.

Meanwhile the elephant in the room that is really helping to fuel these midlatitude coastals is the enormous (1000s km) area
of 1C anaomaly so most of the midlatitude western Atlantic right up to the New England coast, is warmer than normal. They'd be almost as intense
and not quite as wet and a little further east if it weren't for that with big differences for NE snowfall.
Population issues, while not directly related to the weather, are important when you consider the limited resources on the Earth (fossil fuel based economies) juxtaposed against the explosion in the world population in the modern era. One can blame so called irresponsible people for having too many children but you also have to consider the science of the last few hundred years in terms of a) vaccination programs, b) better health care (declines in infant mortality), c) food production (with fertilizers and pesticides) as a by-product of oil production, and d) increased life expectancy issues to name a few.

At the end of the day, the Earth probably has a few more billion people on it now than can be completely sustained, "naturally" and who are also more vulnerable to weather related issues such as drought and fresh-clean water (which is actually the most pressing issue/challenge facing us globally at the moment). The real challenge is not to blame people but to try to provide the basics (water, food, basic shelter from the elements) for a growing population in light of diminished natural resources and the current challenges related to climate change.

Just a thought........................
217. jpsb
Quoting 214. georgevandenberghe:




Dr Mann is both correct and misleading about the 11.5C anomaly. THis part of the ocean has a very large temperature gradient and a slight displacement of the Gulf Stream or a loop in it can produce such large
departures over a small (100km scale) area.

Meanwhile the elephant in the room that is really helping to fuel these midlatitude coastals is the enormous (1000s km) area
of 1C anaomaly so most of the midlatitude western Atlantic right up to the New England coast, is warmer than normal. They'd be almost as intense
and not quite as wet and a little further east if it weren't for that with big differences for NE snowfall.



A slight displacement of the Gulf Steam or an eddy of the same is not unusual nor is that a real temperature anomaly. The image below shows the gulf stream does in fact flow by Cape Cod and the Gulf Steam is known to be warm.

Warnings

10:31 AM EST Thursday 12 February 2015





Extreme Cold Warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A period of very cold wind chills is expected.

A strong cold front is crossing southern Ontario and is ushering in much colder temperatures and gusty north winds. Wind chill values this afternoon are generally expected to be between minus 20 and minus 30 across most of southern Ontario.

Tonight will be very cold across all of southern Ontario. Although the winds will diminish somewhat, wind chills of minus 30 to minus 35 are expected overnight and into Friday morning.

While anyone who isn't dressed warmly is at risk in cold weather conditions, some are at greater risk than others for frost bite and hypothermia:
- homeless people
- outdoor workers
- people living in homes that are poorly insulated (with no heat or no power)
- people with certain medical conditions such as diabetes, peripheral neuropathy and diseases affecting the blood vessels, people taking certain medications including beta-blockers
- winter sport enthusiasts
- people who consume excess alcohol
- infants and
- seniors.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You lose heat faster when you're wet.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.


more to the west on this run!! LOW 987MB!! WOW!
Quoting 220. hurricanes2018:



more to the west on this run!! LOW 987MB!! WOW!


Flooding is going to be a huge concern when all of this snow melts. Wow.
Interesting articule about the frequency of Major Hurricanes in the future. Read Here
Quoting 214. georgevandenberghe:




Dr Mann is both correct and misleading about the 11.5C anomaly. THis part of the ocean has a very large temperature gradient and a slight displacement of the Gulf Stream or a loop in it can produce such large
departures over a small (100km scale) area.

Meanwhile the elephant in the room that is really helping to fuel these midlatitude coastals is the enormous (1000s km) area
of 1C anaomaly so most of the midlatitude western Atlantic right up to the New England coast, is warmer than normal. They'd be almost as intense
and not quite as wet and a little further east if it weren't for that with big differences for NE snowfall.


But in this case, you can see that it isn't simply a "displacement" of the current causing the warm anomaly. If that were the case, you would see an approximately equal magnitude cold anomaly on the opposite side of the current. It doesnt look like we are seeing that much at all.

This SST product shows a few spotty areas on the south side of the Gulf Stream with anomalies near 0C. Then just north of there we have anomalies up to the maximum displayed by their scale (4C) and likely higher. So a shift in the current can certainly explain a portion of the anomalies but I'm very doubtful that it can explain a majority of it. The data just doesn't support that.

japan...who claimed we were in el nino last summer.....apparently their standards do not match the rest of the scientific community...now says it will re-emerge this summer.......i'm thinking they are a great fit to be a WU blogger
Flooding is going to be a huge concern when all of this snow melts. Wow.


it will depend on the rate of melt
Big hit for the mid-atlantic for the GFS 12z run. Low slides of the NC coast just a tad farther south than the ECMWF 00z. All snow.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Population issues, while not directly related to the weather, are important when you consider the limited resources on the Earth (fossil fuel based economies) juxtaposed against the explosion in the world population in the modern era. One can blame so called irresponsible people for having too many children but you also have to consider the science of the last few hundred years in terms of a) vaccination programs, b) better health care (declines in infant mortality), c) food production (with fertilizers and pesticides) as a by-product of oil production, and d) increased life expectancy issues to name a few.

At the end of the day, the Earth probably has a few more billion people on it now than can be completely sustained, "naturally" and who are also more vulnerable to weather related issues such as drought and fresh-clean water (which is actually the most pressing issue/challenge facing us globally at the moment). The real challenge is not to blame people but to try to provide the basics (water, food, basic shelter from the elements) for a growing population in light of diminished natural resources and the current challenges related to climate change.

Just a thought........................


Wiki information on Global population growth/fertility rates
Link

In undeveloped countries on the other hand, families desire children for their labour and as caregivers for their parents in old age. Fertility rates are also higher due to the lack of access to contraceptives, stricter adherence to traditional religious beliefs, generally lower levels of female education, and lower rates of female employment in industry. The total fertility rate for the world has been declining very rapidly since the 1990s. Some forecasters like Sanjeev Sanyal argue that, adjusted for gender imbalances, the effective global fertility will fall below replacement rate in the 2020s. This will stabilize world population by 2050, which is much sooner than the UN Population Division expects.[5]

World Map - Total fertility rate


Population issues, while not directly related to the weather, are important when you consider the limited resources on the Earth (fossil fuel based economies) juxtaposed against the explosion in the world population in the modern era. One can blame so called irresponsible people for having too many children but you also have to consider the science of the last few hundred years in terms of a) vaccination programs, b) better health care (declines in infant mortality), c) food production (with fertilizers and pesticides) as a by-product of oil production, and d) increased life expectancy issues to name a few.

At the end of the day, the Earth probably has a few more billion people on it now than can be completely sustained, "naturally" and who are also more vulnerable to weather related issues such as drought and fresh-clean water (which is actually the most pressing issue/challenge facing us globally at the moment). The real challenge is not to blame people but to try to provide the basics (water, food, basic shelter from the elements) for a growing population in light of diminished natural resources and the current challenges related to climate change.


our planet can sustain the estimated growth in population of 9.2 billion people by 2050 as long as we continue to alter our "natural" ecosystems as we have been doing since the beginning of mankind...i/e.... farming instead of gathering....ranching instead of hunting.....by 2050 respected studies show we will then enter a decrease in growth....of which certain sectors of the world are already entering this....
Quoting georgevandenberghe:



Dr Mann is both correct and misleading about the 11.5C anomaly. THis part of the ocean has a very large temperature gradient and a slight displacement of the Gulf Stream or a loop in it can produce such large
departures over a small (100km scale) area.

Meanwhile the elephant in the room that is really helping to fuel these midlatitude coastals is the enormous (1000s km) area
of 1C anaomaly so most of the midlatitude western Atlantic right up to the New England coast, is warmer than normal. They'd be almost as intense
and not quite as wet and a little further east if it weren't for that with big differences for NE snowfall.
I agree, and looking at small scale large anomalies does nothing to further our understanding of weather. As far as I can tell from looking at the maps, which have a pretty gross resolution, the highest anomalies are off Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. None of those are as important as the extremely large area of less impressive but nevertheless important anomalies further out to sea. However, using just an SST anomaly to explain any weather oversimplifies things a lot. Warm anomalies exist almost all the way down the East coast and we haven't seen major snow there. The anomalies off the West Coast are even more extreme over a larger area, particularly off southern California. Not only haven't we seen unusual rain there, we've seen not much rain at all. SST's in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic have been much higher than usual for at least the past three years yet we haven't seen in an increase in hurricanes.

I suspect the trajectory of lows this year has had a bigger effect than just ocean temperature. Boston has been experiencing the equivalent of lake effect snow but off the ocean. This is easily seen on the snow on the ground map below. The very heavy snow is affecting a narrow band extending northwestward, just as I used to see in Cleveland from lake effect snow. The rest of New England has pretty typical snowfall amounts. The lake effect areas further east have much less than normal snow on the ground. What's most striking is the large areas of the country with no snow on the ground, especially in the Midwest. This is as much of an anomaly as what we're seeing in Boston but it doesn't make news. I really don't have clue what's happening in the atmosphere but the reason we have records is something like this happened in the past. It would be interesting to compare things like storm trajectories from the previous records with what's happening now rather just picking out one thing and saying that's what caused the snow.

Might want to read the bible on your population ideas.since we aralready killing billions of gods children every year I would be more worried about what the creator thinks of this than what we do as mere men.That book has all the answers nothing else is worth reading.God bless and try to enjoy
the day he made for us.
Quoting 180. weathermanwannabe:

178. ColoradoBob1
9:21 AM EST on February 12, 2015

Interesting point. You see a lot of conspiracy and alien type shows on the "sudden" disappearance of the Maya civilization in Central America.........I tend to lean in the direction of a massive Cat 4 or 5 cane that may have blown and flooded them out just leaving the stone temples and ruins.


There was a paper some years back on the amount of charcoal they needed to make the lime for all the plaster they used on their buildings. It pretty much demonstrated they cut down all their forests . It takes a mind boggling amount of wood to roast limestone . And as the Brazilians are learning now, trees matter when it comes to supplying water vapor to the system.
Quoting 230. help4u:

Might want to read the bible on your population ideas.since we aralready killing billions of gods children every year I would be more worried about what the creator thinks of this than what we do as mere men.That book has all the answers nothing else is worth reading.God bless and try to enjoy
the day he made for us.

Reading your comments makes it very easy to believe that you have, in fact, read nothing else
Typical snowfall for Maine (which is a lot, especially across central and western Maine).
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Wiki information on Global population growth/fertility rates
Link

In undeveloped countries on the other hand, families desire children for their labour and as caregivers for their parents in old age. Fertility rates are also higher due to the lack of access to contraceptives, stricter adherence to traditional religious beliefs, generally lower levels of female education, and lower rates of female employment in industry. The total fertility rate for the world has been declining very rapidly since the 1990s. Some forecasters like Sanjeev Sanyal argue that, adjusted for gender imbalances, the effective global fertility will fall below replacement rate in the 2020s. This will stabilize world population by 2050, which is much sooner than the UN Population Division expects.[5]

World Map - average number of children per family.

Well, according to the map, Brazil averages less children per family than the US. If that's true, maybe we can stop beating up Brazilians for breeding like bunnies. What the map does show is that prosperity generally leads to having less children. The poorest countries have the most children per family because having children is a net economic benefit. This makes sense in a rural agrarian economy where the only labor comes from humans. I'd also point out that religion alone doesn't explain family size. Both Spain and Italy have a high proportion of Catholics yet Spain has more children per family than Italy. Like so many things in life, one simple answer doesn't solve complex problems.
the weekend brizzard by the weather channel!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

But in this case, you can see that it isn't simply a "displacement" of the current causing the warm anomaly. If that were the case, you would see an approximately equal magnitude cold anomaly on the opposite side of the current. It doesnt look like we are seeing that much at all.

This SST product shows a few spotty areas on the south side of the Gulf Stream with anomalies near 0C. Then just north of there we have anomalies up to the maximum displayed by their scale (4C) and likely higher. So a shift in the current can certainly explain a portion of the anomalies but I'm very doubtful that it can explain a majority of it. The data just doesn't support that.

I'm confused. Why does the map below seem to depict different anomalies with a different distribution? Is it the baseline period difference that's causing this?

Higos has been uprgraded to a category 4 storm with 115 kts.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/satcon/2015 02W.html
Speaking of Jackson Hole, Wyoming,

A number of all-time high temperatures were recorded in Jackson Hole in the past week, including over the weekend when thermometers hovered around 50 degrees in town.

Friday’s high of 52 degrees bested the previous Jackson record, 50 degrees, which was set in 2007, according to a century-old database maintained by the National Weather Service. The record fell again Saturday, when temperatures in town climbed to 49 degrees. That toppled a high mark of 46 degrees set in 1963.

The high in Jackson on Thursday, 47 degrees, didn’t climb into record territory, but the day’s low reading of 37 degrees was 31 degrees warmer than average and set a record high for the day’s low temperature.


Link
Quoting 178. ColoradoBob1:
Monster hurricanes struck U.S. Northeast during prehistoric periods of ocean warming
Those who read the link will know that these big storms hit, on an average, at about 40-year intervals - less than two such events per average human lifetime.

Yet AGW/CC contrarians from the denialist camp get in a tizzy and crow in ignorant bliss if a "likelihood" of more frequent and/or stronger storms or any other changes in patterns don't manifest immediately and produce such storms every year.
Quoting 239. sar2401:

I'm confused. Why does the map below seem to depict different anomalies with a different distribution? Is it the baseline period difference that's causing this?



The base period is likely a strong candidate. The information may be presented on different resolutions. The source of the SST estimates may also be different. The signal appears generally the same, however, on both plots.
244. vis0
Quoting 122. georgevandenberghe:



A string of warm winters. But you only have to go back to January 2010 to get a really persistantly cold one with frost all the way to the tip of the peninsula even though it wasn't particularly cold in the rest of the U.S outside of the southeast.

For those than never read of the "ml-d" please go ahead to the next comment, thank you. If you still read it think of it as SciFic though  its SciFac.

If i may toot the ml-d horn, Jan 2010 for a bad reason i had to fly to Puerto Rico. It was the first time a working portable ml-d went on a flight. (JetBlue)
The flight was as if the plane was a smooth flat rock  skipping across a pond. Old timers on the flight i overheard say in 30, 40, 50 yrs they've never had such a wild flight skipping for 20+ mins at a time, 4 times in ~a 4 hr flight and no storm in that flights path though some heavy clouds had serious sheeer we dropped 2 times, so fast plates fell off trays and some trays unlatched. BTW i had to leave my VID cam (couldn't VIDEO PR's "cold", but look it up) with family at JFK airport in NYC as security wanted to confiscate it, i've been picked on at airports since 1979, 15 times stopped for a frisking.
i state the portable ml-d attracted a finger of cold air all the way to Puerto Rico.
When i arrived in Agaudilla,PR  it was warm but within 30 mins. it became very breezy and within 2 hrs people where talking of a surprise cold spell and where looking for their heavy coats. The High the next day occurred in the early morning and temperatures kept dropping till it was in the low 70s in mid afternoon.
i was in shorts and my neighbors thought i was going to catch a cold..brrrr. (at nite areas in the mid 50s)
xx/xx/xx
246. vis0
i can notice its going to feeze again so here the best clip http://youtu.be/GK4q3K1cl_8 the other2 (nice Japanese colour