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Snow-Gripped in New England, Wet in the West, and Toasty in Between

By: Bob Henson 3:44 PM GMT on February 09, 2015

The pincers of a warm-west/cold-east pattern took hold of the nation once again this weekend, and the contrast should only intensify over the next few days. The most dangerous weather unfolded across the far West to Northwest--with high wind and heavy rain--and over New York and New England, where the latest in a procession of winter storms is adding to snowfall totals measured in feet, not inches. The atmospheric river that’s doused the Pacific Coast states since late last week is making one final swing through the region, with rains expected to wind down over California by Monday night and across Oregon and Washington on Tuesday. Flooding and a landslide struck the town of Brinnon, Washington on Friday after more than 4” of rain fell. For the entire period Wednesday through 6 AM PST Monday, the towns of Petrolia, California, and Hoodsport, Washington reported 13.01” and 12.43", respectively. Rainfall amounts in major West Coast cities were healthy, if not overly impressive. For the month of February, San Francisco (airport) has recorded 2.02”, with 2.92” at Portland, Oregon, and 3.63” in Seattle, Washington. All three cities are now refreshingly above average for the water year to date, although long-range models suggest another dry spell of at least a week may be in the offing.

More extreme than the precipitation totals in the Western storm were the high winds, with power outages affecting more than 300,000 people. A 134-mph gust was reported at Slide Mountain, west of Reno, Nevada, at about 9600 feet. Downslope winds along the east slopes of the Sierra triggered a wildfire that destroyed 40 homes in a drought-stricken area near Swall Meadows, California, southeast of Yosemite National Park. The fire reportedly climbed to the unusually high snow line of around 8,000 feet. Powerful southerly winds that scoured the parched landscape of Nevada may explain the odd milk-colored rain that fell across parts of eastern Washington and Oregon on Friday.


Figure 1. As drenching rains fell on the west side of the Sierra Nevada, this fire raged on the east side near Bishop, California, on Friday, February 6. Nearly 11 square miles burned, 40 homes were lost, and 150 people were forced to evacuate. Image credit: AP Photo/Jim Stimson via CalFire.

Any relief for New England? The answer is snow
A relentless string of snowy storms is giving New England a midwinter of accumulations that could crush numerous records. Boston set a new mark on Monday for the most snow observed in a 30-day period. The city’s Logan International Airport recorded 61.6” from January 10 through 7 am EST on February 9, beating the previous 30-day record of 58.8” that fell from January 9 through February 7 during the infamous winter of 1978. The 2014-15 season needs to exceed 73.4” to make the city’s top-ten snowiest winters. As of 7 am EST Monday, Boston's seasonal total stood at 66.3". With another 2.5" of snow from Sunday's storm, the snow depth at Bangor, Maine hit 53 inches at 7 am EST Monday morning, which ties their all-time snow depth record set on Feb. 27 - Mar. 1, 1969. Bangor's average snow depth for February 9 is just 8.5 inches.

The latest storm is a long-duration event that’s depositing a foot or more across most of New England, but with small-scale bands expected to enhance the totals from the Boston area northward to New Hampshire. With 20” on the ground before this weekend’s storm, Boston could end up with an additional 18-24” by Tuesday. Yet another storm looms for Thursday, a powerful Nor’easter projected to intensify just offshore--but close enough that only a slight change in track could produce very heavy snow and high wind. Another Nor'easter could be in the offing on Sunday, though it is too early to assess the probabilities of this occurring. The city is already struggling to deal with the massive logistics of snow removal; schools will be closed Monday and Tuesday. In a press conference on Sunday, Boston mayor Martin Walsh asked residents for patience and vigilance. “No other city, no other mayor, has to deal with this much snow,” Walsh said. ”Maybe in Buffalo or Alaska." The coldest temperatures so far this year could plague New England late this week into early next week, with much of the region dipping well below 0°F for lows and struggling to get out of the single digits (if even that) for highs.


Figure 2. It’s not the best weather for biking in Boston right now, as residents grapple with ever-growing roadside snowbanks. Photo credit: AP Photo/Charles Krupa.

A February thaw for millions
The contrast between the Northeast and the rest of the contiguous U.S. was especially sharp on Sunday, as many states from the mid-Atlantic to the Rockies basked in unseasonable mildness. Record daily highs were set or tied from Washington D.C. (68°F) to Salt Lake City (64°, its fourth daily record in a row). Salt Lake City is running close to 20°F above average for the first eight days of February, and hit 68° on both Friday and Saturday--by far the their earliest-in-year 68-degree highs ever recorded, and just one degree shy of their all-time February record of 69°, set on February 28, 1972. However, another state capital--Augusta, Maine--is more than 12°F below average, at a frigid 8.5°F. On Saturday, temperatures soared to 73°F in Rapid City, SD; 80°F at McCook, NE; 82°F in Hill City, KS; and 83°F at Lamar, CO. Another large batch of records is likely on Monday before temperatures moderate somewhat.

While the temperatures above are far more pleasant than the brutal conditions in New England, they’re actually more extreme when set against local averages for early February. The latest statistics from NOAA bear out the fact that 2015 has been on the mild, dry side for the lower 48 as a whole. Last month was the 24th warmest and 18th driest January in 121 years of record-keeping, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. Record highs and lows paint an even more stark picture. NCDC’s records page showed on Sunday that for the year to date, the nation had seen 2040 daily record highs but just 360 daily record lows. The ratio is even more lopsided for monthly highs (198) vs. monthly lows (4).

Bob Henson



Figure 3. Temperatures have stayed above normal levels (green area in image) in Salt Lake City on every day since January 5. Even the lows have failed to dip below normal daytime highs for a solid week, from February 2 through February 8. Pink bars show records highs for the date, while light blue bars are record lows. Image credit: NWS/Salt Lake City.

Winter Weather Flood Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

To go on further, since it was my statement that Whitewabit posted that caused this little break....

"
evolution

Evolution is a process that results in changes in the genetic material of a population over time. Evolution reflects the adaptations of organisms to their changing environments and can result in altered genes, novel traits, and new species. Evolutionary processes depend on both changes in genetic variability and changes in allele frequencies over time.

The study of evolution can be performed on different scales. Microevolution reflects changes in DNA sequences and allele frequencies within a species over time. These changes may be due to mutations, which can introduce new alleles into a population. In addition, new alleles can be introduced in a population by gene flow, which occurs during breeding between two populations that carry unique alleles. In contrast with microevolution, macroevolution reflects large-scale changes at the species level, which result from the accumulation of numerous small changes on the microevolutionary scale. An example of macroevolution is the evolution of a new species.

One mechanism that drives evolution is natural selection, which is a process that increases the frequency of advantageous alleles in a population. Natural selection results in organisms that are more likely to survive and reproduce. Another driving force behind evolution is genetic drift, which describes random fluctuations in allele frequencies in a population. Eventually, genetic drift can cause a subpopulation to become genetically distinct from its original population. Indeed, over a long period of time, genetic drift and the accumulation of other genetic changes can result in speciation, which is the evolution of a new species."

In conclusion...yeah, that looks like total make believe, huh? Science rejection comes in all forms folks, it goes way beyond climate change as my original statement, quoted by WW was getting at. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming. I hear it's gonna get cold here in Florida, so cold in fact, that people are going to question global warming...and so it goes.
Quoting 493. Jedkins01:



LOL what would this blog do without you?


Haven't you noticed it hasn't been the same since I am not on anymore? :)

Some day I may chime in on the AGW debate and really get things going.
Quoting 503. Grothar:



Haven't you noticed it hasn't been the same since I am not on anymore? :)

Some day I may chime in on the AGW debate and really get things going.




Siberian express

Quoting 494. Climate175:

Today, Feb 10th, marks the end of the the dead of winter in which winter temps are at their lowest, from now on out the average temps will be rising.
there are other plans seems
Quoting 463. Grothar:




I wouldn't worry about it too much. Usually by the time entropy is replaced by atrophy, most people have re-aligned their thinking. At a young age, we are all idealist to some degree. All I know is, that my beliefs have changed a lot over the past 6,000 years.


I have to agree. According to the Old Testament you were a nasty little bugger, and I'm sure that's only the things the scribes knew about. Really, did you have to torment Job so much just because he wouldn't get off your lawn?

By the way, perhaps you can settle a long standing wager between me and Einstein. Do you ever hit craps table in Vegas or do you truly not play dice?

Quoting 463. Grothar:




I wouldn't worry about it too much. Usually by the time entropy is replaced by atrophy, most people have re-aligned their thinking. At a young age, we are all idealist to some degree. All I know is, that my beliefs have changed a lot over the past 6,000 years.


Has Moses ever paid back those 5 dollars he owes you?
Quoting 406. Hurricane4Caster




Quoting 491. ScottLincoln:


Baloney.



You misspelled "troll".
Quoting goosegirl1:
**Theory of Evolution suffers extensively under the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics esp. with regard to Entropy, which is essentially disorder. Disorder can only increase on a universal scale, while Evolution requires order to come from nothing.**

The Second Law of Thermodynamics requires a compound system that is closed. IOW, no energy may be introduced into the system. As long as that big nuclear reactor in the sky keeps producing energy and sending it to earth, then the earth is not a closed system.

If you had a way to enclose Earth and another planet and keep out all other energy... but you don't. And life did not evolve in a closed system.
While it is true that earth is most certainly not a closed system, the energy that comes from the sun (the primary and only significant source of external energy to the earth) is applied in a blind manner, rather than in a way that literally creates useful information. If the energy of the sun somehow is going to transform the non-living molecules of the primeval soup into intricately complex, highly organized, self-replicating living cells, and then to transmute populations of simple organisms like worms into complex, thinking human beings, then that energy has to be stored and converted into an intricate array of sophisticated machinery by an intricate array of complex codes and programs. If such codes and mechanisms are not available on the earth, then the incoming heat energy will simply disintegrate any organized systems that might accidentally have shown up there.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I don't really see why things that evolved can't be created, and science is neutral to religion. Science tells you how things work, but it can't and won't answer all questions, if so it would have to be assumed to be something else other than science.

Keep in mind that as technology changes, so will our ability to understand the past. Although anything ancient in nature means a natural lack of evidence in general. Many note the lack of evidence for evolution, however, alternatives from what I'm aware of so far have lacked much more in evidence.

It's not to say that couldn't change in the future, but the method for science is the model that is best fit for the most knowledge we currently have on a physical issue.
It's possible the development of the Universe, the Earth, and life, could look completely different, but today's scientific consensus is based on today's best known available knowledge and research.

As someone who is a theist, I see the whole debate as unnecessary and invented to cause division. If I were you I'd stay away from the argument. I don't see any productive outcome that which will come from it. This being a weather blog also really isn't the place for it either, it will do us all good not to engage in it. let's keep the focus on weather.

I could be wrong, but that's my take.
This is true, although science can be applied to some claims in religious books. It is probably a wise plan to quit this, so I've resolved to stop debating after this post. Thanks.
Quoting LAGotNoWeather:


Well I am a high school science teacher, so let me remind you of a few things...

1. Entropy does increase over time. However, that does not mean within the universe there are times when entropy decreases. The simplest case is your birth. Wouldn't you assume that you, right now, have more "order" than when you were a newly formed zygote? Do you violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics? If so, you need to submit a paper and get yourself recognized, son! So no, evolution doesn't violate any entropic laws.

2. Your statement that anything in the past can't be tested is incorrect. Ask anyone on this forum and they can talk to you about temperature reconstructions and subsequent verifications. This is just weather. We can carbon date layers of the earth and the bones within them to tell us when organisms lived. We don't have to be there. History leaves behind markers. If we can find those markers and interpret them, then we can figure out what happened in the past. It is similar to hieroglyphics. When we found tablets w/ that kind of writing, we couldn't figure it out. But w/ the Rosetta stone, we could reconstruct what the writing meant. Doesn't matter that no one on Earth was fluent in hieroglyphics.

3. Your views aren't stupid, but they are very misinformed. You throw out words like entropy don't know what they really mean. Keep taking those science classes and you will come around. Facts are facts. Science has no agenda.
Like I mentioned earlier, there is no doubt that earth is not a closed system, and thus the 2nd Law can allow isolated incidents of a negative delta S. The sun's energy however is applied in a blind manner that can more often be destructive rather than constructive, unlike the human body (which is literally fearfully and wonderfully made) in which every single organ is designed to function systematically and cooperatively. (I'm taking Anatomy & Physiology currently.)
Science and God do not contradict at all, contrary to popular belief. Carbon dating methods are extremely unreliable, are easily contaminated (esp. after the alleged billions of years), and scientists actually get a whole host of estimates from these dating methods by which they pick the ones that best fit their agenda.
You don't know how much I know about entropy, but you are correct that facts are indeed facts. Macroevolution is not fact, but I'm glad you think I'll "come around."
Quoting schistkicker:
"It is not possible to test something that has occurred in the past, therefore The Theory of Evolution is, quite literally, "anti-science"."

Other people have pointed to other flaws in the logic in #406, but I would just like to point out that with this mindset, you've just sent home all of the geologists and other Earth scientists. I highly doubt that anyone is going to retract Plate Tectonic theory, however.

"I am an avid weather enthusiast that usually gets straight A's in high school and is otherwise well educated. I ask this rhetorically: Does it seem like I'm stupid for not supporting Evolution?"

First, you've indicated that you're only 17, there's still time to learn and grow; I do suspect that at least part of the jadedness towards science is a result of the way it's forced to be taught in most American high schools these days-- so much coverage of science trivia, so little coverage of scientific philosophy, approach, and the promotion of critical analysis skills. Do I think you're stupid, no. Are you ignorant? Yes. That's nothing to be ashamed of, of course-- we're all ignorant of a great many things that we haven't personally devoted years of study and review towards. However, continue on this path where you toss off science that disagrees with your ideology-- down that path lies willful ignorance, and that's another critter altogether.
So you're saying that the fact that I don't believe in a godless universe makes me ignorant? I haven't yet seen any science that supports that God doesn't exist.

I'm done with this debate. This is not the place to hold it; I was just insulted by whitewabit's implying that Creationism is absurd.

See you guys in June or July when there are actually some tropical storms to track.
Quoting 496. washingtonian115:

Thanks Tim.



Link

You should enter this photo contest by NOAA. Winners get their photos showcased outside the noaa campus in silver spring.
Quoting 511. Hurricane4Caster:

I haven't yet seen any science that supports that God doesn't exist.

I'm done with this debate. This is not the place to hold it; I was just insulted by whitewabit's implying that Creationism is absurd.

See you guys in June or July when there are actually some tropical storms to track.


I haven't seen any science that supports that one eyed, one horned, flying purple people eaters don't exist. Then again, for someone so versed in science and the scientific method, you probably are aware of null hypotheses and why you don't try to prove something doesn't exist...right...RIGHT?

See you in June or July, I'll be looking forward to it.
Quoting 512. TimTheWxMan:




Link

You should enter this photo contest by NOAA. Winners get their photos showcased outside the noaa campus in silver spring.
Oh they aren't mine.I get them from CWG during the morning and evening post.
Spent a year as a Fighting Blue Hen before transferring to UH. Rodney Hall A. Good times. Many good memories.

I wish her good luck.

Quoting 452. washingtonian115:

University of DE.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
401 PM CST Tuesday Feb 10 2015

Discussion...
generally only minor changes made to the forecast as reasoning has
not changed and models remain in fairly good agreement through the
weekend. Dry high pressure will remain in control of the area
weather through the weekend as upper shortwaves push a couple
reinforcing fronts through the area.

The first reinforcing front arrives Thursday. With little
moisture to work with...the front will mainly be evident in the
form of passing clouds. Of note...though is the cold air mass
behind the front. While the bulk of the coldest air should be
shunted to our east...current forecast is still for temperatures to fall
into the 20s for roughly the northern half of the area Friday
morning. Some areas could see their first hard freeze since early
January...so we/ll definitely be keeping an eye on model trends
concerning the western extent of the colder air.

Saturday will see somewhat of a warmup...but it won't last long as
another front passes through Saturday night. This front will again
be moisture starved with no precipitation accompanying it. And
once again...coldest air should be shunted to the east of the
local area. However...still expecting temperatures to drop well below
normal. In fact highs on Sunday could be as much as 15 degrees
below our climatological normals for this time of year. Current
forecast is for afternoon highs near 50 for most of the area.

This blast of colder air will quickly shift eastward along with
the high on Monday...and this is where model guidance begins to
show significant differences. GFS and Euro both indicate the high
will shift eastward as an upper shortwave digs into the plains
states. However...GFS is a bit slower and allows for more moisture
return ahead of the next front. This results in a wetter
solution...with scattered showers onsetting by late Monday
evening and lasting through much of Tuesday. Euro is a little
faster and drier...though it does indicate some potential for a
rainy Tuesday as well. For the time being...have gone with a blend
of the two...which results in a gradual increase of probability of precipitation beginning
Monday. Current forecast indicates slight chance probability of precipitation for Monday
and then chance probability of precipitation for Monday night.

&&
Europe is lighting up. Probably stormy, but no lack of swell.

Quoting 450. LAbonbon:


I wish you the best tomorrow, Haole. I'm not a surfer (never tried, actually), but maybe this will help as well?


3 Cold fronts dumping all the way to Northern Gulf Coast here in the next few days. Why is it so difficult to get an overrunning event or a low pressure system during the coldest periods this far south?
Quoting 518. PensacolaDoug:

3 Cold fronts dumping all the way to Northern Gulf Coast here in the next few days. Why is it so difficult to get an overrunning event or a low pressure system during the coldest periods this far south?
would ya like some snow doug
Quoting 514. washingtonian115:

Oh they aren't mine.I get them from CWG during the morning and evening post.


Ah. Too bad most of my pictures go against the 3rd rule of the contest due to the fact that none of them have anyone in them.
Quoting 518. PensacolaDoug:

3 Cold fronts dumping all the way to Northern Gulf Coast here in the next few days. Why is it so difficult to get an overrunning event or a low pressure system during the coldest periods this far south?


That's what we're wondering here in Maryland
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



The first two links are reports from the National Academy of Sciences about two geoengineering ideas.

!!! Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration (National Academy of Sciences, 140 pages)

!!! Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth (National Academy of Sciences, 234 pages)

* Erase and rewind


World thunderstorm 'map' key to assessing climate change

*** Industrial aerosol emissions has changed relationship between temperature and precipitation in northern tropics

!!! Smoking thins vital part of brain

Yellow/orange areas are regions where the thickness of the cortex at age 73 is associated with the amount of lifetime smoking; the greater the amount of lifetime smoking, the thinner the cortex.



*** A centimeter of time: Cool clocks pave the way to new measurements of Earth




Water ice renders short-lived molecule sustainable



DNA 'cage' could improve nanopore technology



*** Global sea ice diminishing, despite Antarctic gains

Comparing Arctic sea ice loss to Antarctic sea ice gain shows that the planet has-been shedding sea ice at an average annual rate of 13,500 square miles since 1979, the equivalent of losing an area of sea ice larger than the state of Maryland every year.



*** Maryland governor moves to repeal 'rain tax'

* Britain gives go-ahead to test driverless cars on roads

*** How much oil does the US have? It depends on who's counting.

Obama to Recall Military Personnel From Ebola Zone, Officials Say
Explain Salton Sea Puzzle (from the New York Times, November 12, 1905)
Quoting 503. Grothar:



Haven't you noticed it hasn't been the same since I am not on anymore? :)

Some day I may chime in on the AGW debate and really get things going.



Ah indeed, and maybe you should especially on certain days when it get's a bit rowdy here.
Quoting 507. Xyrus2000:



I have to agree. According to the Old Testament you were a nasty little bugger, and I'm sure that's only the things the scribes knew about. Really, did you have to torment Job so much just because he wouldn't get off your lawn?

By the way, perhaps you can settle a long standing wager between me and Einstein. Do you ever hit craps table in Vegas or do you truly not play dice?




Job was alright, but sometimes Jonah was a little hard to swallow.

We have had one of the mildest winters in South Florida I can remember. Even though I like the warm weather, I wouldn't mind a little cold. I grew up in Norway and Germany, so I was not unfamiliar with snow and cold. I never did like it. But now, even there, the climate has undergone a tremendous change. It would be interesting reading for some on here to look at what other countries are experiencing in their climate.
Quoting 460. vis0:

http://youtu.be/GK4q3K1cl_8 (686x496)

Description as to ml-d & graphics in Animation above in image below. No
its not too small to read nor am i a double agent ants, this their message.
Either click the image into a pop-up page for actual size 775x2147
or if you're using FireFox try "image Resize/Scaler" by Eloit
Van Uytfanghe. Via that app to rezise (darn dyslexia) the image use'ALT' key and
right mouse click to drag any fully loaded image to desired size. (advise you
set the app not to allow image to be smaller than 32pixels) (The graphics
mentioned in the image is HERE)
Stretch or click for original, READABLE size.
Stretch or click for original, READABLE size.
ITS READABLE if you stretch the image or click for popup(93.1Kb)




NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALL THREE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 7 DAYS OUT, WOW! YOU HEARD IT FIRST RIGHT HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!
Quoting 524. Jedkins01:




Ah indeed, and maybe you should especially on certain days when it get's a bit rowdy here.


Oh, I watch, Jeds. lol. I want to jump in sometimes, but my judgement gets the better of me. (or is that the "best" ) I enjoy when the blog starts to criticize the models.

The blog has inspired me to write another novel. I think I may title it, "How to Lose Friends and Influence No One"

Does anyone know if this is the low that will be sliding into the Northeast?

Quoting Grothar:
Does anyone know if this is the low that will be sliding into the Northeast?



It is.
The Boston Yeti has been spotted around town cleaning off peoples' cars:


So if one particular event isn't enough to blame climate change, what the heck do you call this?
Quoting 529. BaltimoreBrian:



It is.
and shall be
Amazing how the Southwest and Mexico just moisten up

Quoting 532. Grothar:

Amazing how the Southwest and Mexico just moisten up




Thats not it moistening up, thats it cooling down as it becomes night time.
Quoting 532. Grothar:

Amazing how the Southwest and Mexico just moisten up



You are a caution, Grothar :)
Quoting 518. PensacolaDoug:

3 Cold fronts dumping all the way to Northern Gulf Coast here in the next few days. Why is it so difficult to get an overrunning event or a low pressure system during the coldest periods this far south?

Suppression depression. Anomalous arctic outbreaks are associated with full-latitude upper-level troughs that correspond with surface high pressure. That high pressure forces developing lows well south, keeping the areas where cold air is in place dry.
You're just too far north, Doug.



Quoting 521. Drakoen:



That's what we're wondering here in Maryland

Most of the energy has been in northern stream systems or clippers. We haven't gotten a good southern stream system to combine with cold air; the ones we got were warm. We need to either break the western ridge or undercut it and have some systems pass underneath as happened in 1978. It's not too late to have it happen this year.

I still think retrogression of the mean trough axis to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will make things more interesting for the mid atlantic after Presidents day. But both the trough and the ridge have persisted for a long time and may (pure speculation here!) just break down after next week into a more zonal pattern.
Quoting 538. BaltimoreBrian:

You're just too far north, Doug.


Hey Doug come on down to Daytona Beach this weekend for the race and stick around maybe you'll see some snow. Or as Patrap calls it sneaux. :P
Quoting 521. Drakoen:

That's what we're wondering here in Maryland

Snow in Maryland is a forecasting fata morgana and always will be.

Quoting 376. washingtonian115:

I hated the winter of 94.I would rather have 5 eet if snow then go through that again.
That was the last time Reagan National Airport had a high in the single digits.
I'm not going to hold my breath yet but Tuesday is a week away but there is strong confidence for 2 or 3 days now that Greenville/upstate SC might get some snow on Tuesday the 17th I think. TWC is showing it, Accuweather, WU.. We'll just have to wait and see if it holds and doesn't go away like the models have been doing all year!
From the same site that provides those really cool real time wind maps, Earth SST anomaly and currents: Link

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
You're just too far north, Doug.



I see the GFS is painting snow Florida. :/ We'll see. ;)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Late breaking news:

A smiling lens: 'Happy face' galaxy cluster reveals arcs caused by strong gravitational lensing

Cool cluster formation. I wonder how that could of happened.
It's gravitational lensing. Read the article for more Andre :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
It's gravitational lensing. Read the article for more Andre :)
Interesting discovery nice.
Quoting 545. BaltimoreBrian:

Late breaking news:

A smiling lens: 'Happy face' galaxy cluster reveals arcs caused by strong gravitational lensing




You ever get the feeling that something...someone is watching you all the time? Kinda creepy picture, there.
Nathan, there's a pretty good smiling crater on Mars like something out of a rave. I'll look for it and add to this comment.

re 511:

You missed the point. I was simply saying that you cannot cite "entropy" or the Second Law of Thermodynamics to disprove evolution in the manner you did. You must have more than one object and a set, finite amount of energy in a closed system. That's how the law works. If you do not have one of those conditions, you cannot use that law to prove or disprove anything. Nice try, though.

Evolution goes on every day, all day, and can be seen all around you, should you ever care to learn about it. It does not disprove a creator being perhaps directing the show, but it also does not require it. However, creator dudes and deities are a whole other subject removed from science.
Quoting 554. jpsb:




I believe most people on a science blog believe in Darwinism .. And Weather is a science !!

Per WIKI ..
Darwinism is a theory of biological evolution developed by Charles Darwin and others, stating that all species of organisms arise and develop through the natural selection of small, inherited variations that increase the individual's ability to compete, survive, and reproduce. Also called Darwinian theory, it originally included the broad concepts of transmutation of species or of evolution which gained general scientific acceptance when Charles Robert Darwin published On the Origin of Species, including concepts which predated Darwin's theories, but subsequently referred to specific concepts of natural selection, the Weismann barrier or in genetics the central dogma of molecular biology.[1] Though it usually refers strictly to biological evolution, the term has been used by creationists to refer to the origin of life, and has even been applied to concepts of cosmic evolution, both of which have no connection to Darwin's work. It is therefore considered the belief and acceptance of Darwin's, and his predecessors, work in place of other theories including divine design and extraterrestrial origins.[2][3]
Quoting 546. Andrebrooks:

I see the GFS is painting snow Florida. :/ We'll see. ;)


That's pretty incredible, considering that forecast is 5 days past the peak cold of late this week and this weekend. Is there a chance that everything could come together to allow snow across Central FL around the 19th (another epic cold front)? Even if this is not accumulating in most/all areas, it would still be a tremendously rare event for our area. I think that model forecast is fascinating but very unlikely.
557. vis0

http://youtu.be/xAF6fHy_p04
(976x1008)
This is to explain why i thought the small LOW off shore of the NW going onshore ~Washington State i thought was to be an "AtmosRiver" with at least the same precipitation output as last weeks "AtmosRiver". Still might see some AtmosRiver like plumes onto the west coast but not during the time period i thought.

In thinking the plume of moisture would be redirected by the smaller LOW (one that transferred its energy to the mini LOW over Midwest) i misjudged the timing thinking the PAC LOW was to slow down as it "curved" more eastward from heading
into Canada to heading into Oregon/Washington State that error is due the fact i stink at physics.
Another error less excusable was i lost the track of date (family visit threw me off) thought it was Feb 9th (yesterday) when it was Feb 10th 2015. If one read my last comments ( text in an imaged format) on Dr. Masters #2913 blog i stated on Feb 11th 2015 +/- 24 hrs (see txet -darn dyslexia- in image) the ml-d inner most AOI goes from 33% to 66%.
Therefore throughout today (even late yesterday if one includes the 24 hrs range )  the HIGH out west is becoming stronger again
but NOT AS STRONG as it can be which happens in ~9-12 days (9 to 12 days includes delay to assimilate Galacsics/ml-d influence into the physical world).
See how fast that off-on NW shore LOW transferred to the mini LOW in the Midwest. i state its used the ml-d influence i state happens via sub sound therefore a form of mach#? as it rode the a "sound" influence and reformed with ease ~2 times faster than expected being the ml-d settings are set to rise by almost 2 times such an influence, though its AT the time of the LOWs transfer at
66% of 2 times or ~1.38 times faster than expected. (the expected, meaning man uses the 128 yrs (~40+ of SAT) of observed weather changes to rightfully so measure anything that happens today so if the LOW was expected to take 12 hrs to re-form it would take ~72.46 less time or in ~8hrs. 
This is the way to influence weather as to steer TS/Hurricanes to cause Tornadoes to skip over populated areas or even interfere with their inflow and lower the tornadoes strength though i prefer one not influence at a micro weather level, more at the
minimum of 45 degrees of a planets surface. (hope the next inventor of an ml-d is listening/reading whomever and whenever this)

Why? 
MY 22cents controversial statement:: In micro managing weather one will tend to "play" "Gawd" as to who decides that the WELL PREPARED poor family lose their home but the WELL PREPARED wealthier or well connected family save their home during the same Tornado.  In  managing a larger area/a 45 degree swath (measured at eq.) of a planet one STILL allows nature to choose what happens and its up to mankind to observe & learn & prepare, therefore if you're poor but prepared you
have a more equal (not perfect) opportunity to survive as much as the equally prepared "wealthier" family, one should not punish either family for their wealth or lack of but reward for their preparedness. Its almost as a better way to make sure Humans pass on knowledge as those that learn to survive get to pass on their genes its how humans evolved. In the past  generation it seems we are
helping idiots and the ignorant get a free pass on life and if that continues in a few millinia roaches will pass us : - P . A good example of what i mean is the ancient parable as its better off to teach a man to fish than to just serve
him King Crab or something like that (been reading too much Patrap). i like to say, building on positives is like taking upward steps
on the upward heading escalator, building on negative steps is like taking upward steps on the downward escalator, ding ding blu-light special...what the escalator broke?
Hey all, I've gone under a transitioning to a new name. My old name was both outdated and on a different email. My name is Tyler, I am a meteorology student living independently at FSU with Cerebral Palsy (a physical disability) and I've been lurking (and infrequently posting) since 2009. This new handle will also come with a blog that I will be updating at least once a week depending on how busy I am with my 16 credit hour load at FSU. Most blogs will have 3 main "biases" as far as what I cover.

1. Florida weather (Florida Panhandle and Southwest Florida, as I live in both places now)
2. Tropical Weather/Severe Weather (Nationwide, but more focus given if in Southeast/Dixie Alley)
3. Selected weather story: I will usually go in depth on the most pressing weather story nationally, and globally if the scale of the event is large enough. This will start in a week or two.

If you guys have any suggestions as to what I can include, PM me as I am open to suggestions. I don't want to spam the blog. I want to make it as professional (and conversational/layman) as possible.

P.S. I hope this isn't a shameless plug! :)
Quoting 511. Hurricane4Caster:

I haven't yet seen any science that supports that God doesn't exist.

Existence questions cannot be tackled scientifically, unless something actually exists ánd this is actually empirically verifiable.
Re God, it is much easier to see he cannot exist. Simply by logic.
Good morning with very bad news from the deadly far side of all those meteorologically interesting weather systems in the Mediterranean:

Migrants missing in Mediterranean
BBC, Breaking news, 11 February 2015 Last updated at 09:54 GMT
More than 200 migrants are missing after two motorboats they were travelling on sank in the Mediterranean Sea, the UN's refugee agency says.
"Nine were saved after four days at sea. The other 203 were swallowed by the waves," UNHCR's spokeswoman in Italy, Carlotta Sami, said on Twitter.
She called the situation a "horrible and enormous tragedy".
The International Organization for Migration says the two boats departed from the Libyan coast on Saturday.



Source BBC: Mapping Mediterranean migration



Current conditions in Europe, still with strong and large high "Gabriela" over our heads, providing a grey and foggy sky for low lying regions like mine, and the strong cyclonic storm over the eastern Mediterranean and parts of the Middle East.


Current snow hights in Turkey with more than 2 meters (6,6 feet) in some mountainous places:

Source with more data.

Snow in Istanbul/Turkey:

Quoting 552. goosegirl1:

re 511:

You missed the point. I was simply saying that you cannot cite "entropy" or the Second Law of Thermodynamics to disprove evolution in the manner you did. You must have more than one object and a set, finite amount of energy in a closed system. That's how the law works. If you do not have one of those conditions, you cannot use that law to prove or disprove anything. Nice try, though.

Evolution goes on every day, all day, and can be seen all around you, should you ever care to learn about it. It does not disprove a creator being perhaps directing the show, but it also does not require it. However, creator dudes and deities are a whole other subject removed from science.

goosegirl1 - the majority of his response to you is verbatim language that's been posted on different religious sites and forums, discussing this exact topic.

His response to LAGotNoWeather (the high school science teacher) is an unwarranted diss of scientists, includes a reference to a religious site that uses religion to answer science questions, and he confuses the cited reference and makes a misstatement/is confused about carbon dating being used to date things that are billions of years old. The end of the cited reference ends with "This challenges those who promote the faith of radioisotope dating, especially when it contradicts the clear eyewitness chronology of the Word of God."

Seems the kid's poor opinion of scientists has been formed early, and he has not learned where to get objective information. Is he even aware there are objective sources he could reference, or is using religious sites as references acceptable for his science classes?

One can't really successfully discuss science with an ideologue. Hopefully he'll learn to look in additional places for his information.


Tampa Bay area
564. beell
The things you can find on twitter...

Central Texas Radar site

NOUS64 KFWD 101934
FTMGRK
Message Date: Feb 10 2015 19:34:07
DUE TO COMPLICATIONS INVOLVING A RATTLESNAKE DURING TODAYS UPGRADE...THE KGRK RA
DAR WILL REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFT
ERNOON.

NWS Level III Radar Site Status as of Wed Feb 11
565. MahFL
Whats with the warming trend for my forecast here in Northern Florida ? Now have 35 F, thought it was supposed to be well below 32 F ?
8 days away but............................................... ........................................
The 06Z GFS at 192 hrs would be epic!
Posted yesterday, NWS Twitter post:
...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS WEEK.

WIDESPREAD INLAND FREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...WITH FREEZING CONDITIONS POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO COASTAL
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

Quoting 564. beell:

The things you can find on twitter...

Central Texas Radar site

NOUS64 KFWD 101934
FTMGRK
Message Date: Feb 10 2015 19:34:07
DUE TO COMPLICATIONS INVOLVING A RATTLESNAKE DURING TODAYS UPGRADE...THE KGRK RA
DAR WILL REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFT
ERNOON.

NWS Level III Radar Site Status as of Wed Feb 11


Rattlesnakes are very difficult to detect on radar, being so close to the ground, so if the radar detects the test rattlesnake, they know it's working well. Obviously, the upgraded radar failed the rattlesnake test, so they'll need to fine tune it a bit more.
Quoting 561. LAbonbon:


goosegirl1 - the majority of his response to you is verbatim language that's been posted on different religious sites and forums, discussing this exact topic.

His response to LAGotNoWeather (the high school science teacher) is an unwarranted diss of scientists, includes a reference to a religious site that uses religion to answer science questions, and he confuses the cited reference and makes a misstatement/is confused about carbon dating being used to date things that are billions of years old. The end of the cited reference ends with "This challenges those who promote the faith of radioisotope dating, especially when it contradicts the clear eyewitness chronology of the Word of God."

Seems the kid's poor opinion of scientists has been formed early, and he has not learned where to get objective information. Is he even aware there are objective sources he could reference, or is using religious sites as references acceptable for his science classes?

One can't really successfully discuss science with an ideologue. Hopefully he'll learn to look in additional places for his information.


Interesting that in the 5th century Augustine of Hippo wrote in "De Genesi ad Litteram (On The Literal Meaning of Genesis)" that it would be foolish to to take Genesis literally.

"It not infrequently happens that something about the earth, about the sky, about other elements of this world, about the motion and rotation or even the magnitude and distances of the stars, about definite eclipses of the sun and moon, about the passage of years and seasons, about the nature of animals, of fruits, of stones, and of other such things, may be known with the greatest certainty by reasoning or by experience, even by one who is not a Christian. It is too disgraceful and ruinous, though, and greatly to be avoided, that he [the non-Christian] should hear a Christian speaking so idiotically on these matters, and as if in accord with Christian writings, that he might say that he could scarcely keep from laughing when he saw how totally in error they are. In view of this and in keeping it in mind constantly while dealing with the book of Genesis, I have, insofar as I was able, explained in detail and set forth for consideration the meanings of obscure passages, taking care not to affirm rashly some one meaning to the prejudice of another and perhaps better explanation" (The Literal Interpretation of Genesis 1:19–20 [A.D. 408]). 




James Skekan SJ, professor in the Department of Geology and Geophysics and director emeritus of the Weston Observatory, Boston College, wrote a short post in Geotimes titled Creation Science: Bad Science, Bad Religion!

BTW, Georges Lemaitre who postulated the "Big Bang Theory" was a Jesuit Abbe.

Now I'll go back to leaving science to scientists and theology to theologians.

inb4 whining about off topic posting.

Unfortunately I have nothing to add this time, much as I enjoy theological discussion.
Also Bonnie, stereotyping a bit here, but stereotypes are usually rooted in some degree of truth: you're a LOT smarter than most people in the Bible Belt when it comes to science, especially in the areas of Louisiana and Mississippi I've visited.

You have my respect even moreso now. This is also a rare moment of cold hearted Kori actually paying somebody a genuine compliment, so I suggest you take it before I change my mind. ;)
Quoting 572. JohnLonergan:

Interesting that in the 5th century Augustine of Hippo wrote in "De Genesi ad Litteram (On The Literal Meaning of Genesis)" that it would be foolish to to take Genesis literally.

"It not infrequently happens that something about the earth, about the sky, about other elements of this world, about the motion and rotation or even the magnitude and distances of the stars, about definite eclipses of the sun and moon, about the passage of years and seasons, about the nature of animals, of fruits, of stones, and of other such things, may be known with the greatest certainty by reasoning or by experience, even by one who is not a Christian. It is too disgraceful and ruinous, though, and greatly to be avoided, that he [the non-Christian] should hear a Christian speaking so idiotically on these matters, and as if in accord with Christian writings, that he might say that he could scarcely keep from laughing when he saw how totally in error they are. In view of this and in keeping it in mind constantly while dealing with the book of Genesis, I have, insofar as I was able, explained in detail and set forth for consideration the meanings of obscure passages, taking care not to affirm rashly some one meaning to the prejudice of another and perhaps better explanation" (The Literal Interpretation of Genesis 1:19%u201320 [A.D. 408]).



I've literally told my aunt some kind of variation of this at least a dozen times. I don't know why I still try, honestly.*

*Ironically, I think in the unlikely event I were ever a Christian again (I find Western religion boring, for one thing; Eastern religion is much lovelier, and also generally compatible with atheism), I honestly think it'd create even more friction than what my heathen beliefs already create. >_>
198 the focus of the swell would be s. beach florida rare event


more snow this weekend


opps!!
Quoting 543. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

I'm not going to hold my breath yet but Tuesday is a week away but there is strong confidence for 2 or 3 days now that Greenville/upstate SC might get some snow on Tuesday the 17th I think. TWC is showing it, Accuweather, WU.. We'll just have to wait and see if it holds and doesn't go away like the models have been doing all year!


THe key phrase to take away is "Tuesday is a week away"

But that said, I am also very interested in this system in the DC metro area. With no cold high locked in to the northeast it does not look like an epic snow but snow, freezing rain, or cold rain are possibilities and a good analog remains Jan 17, 1994, with a snow to freezing rain to rain event sandwiched between two epic arctic outbreaks. It produced over an inch of water equivalent just 24-36 hours after near extreme arctic cold and followed two days later by extreme (note I intentionally dropped "near") arctic cold with highs in the single digits in DC metro. The 2" of snow followed by a cm of ice pellets followed by rain, was then followed by the cold which made a 1.5" sheet of ice so thick even grassy areas were difficult to walk on. 1993-94 was an interesting winter.
#406
I plussed your post as a support for your enthusiasm. At 17, I too thought I knew the answer. It was way later that I read that the answer was 42. At 42, I realized that there may be no answer to philosophy but there are answers in science. I have made my philosophy based on my experience that I do not yet know everything. I can be in awe of what we can not yet explain, but that does not mean I will be forced to worship them. Good luck on your studies. Your A's are achievements of repetition of rote, failing philosophy will truly teach you to reason.
Quoting 575. KoritheMan:

Also Bonnie, stereotyping a bit here, but stereotypes are usually rooted in some degree of truth: you're a LOT smarter than most people in the Bible Belt when it comes to science, especially in the areas of Louisiana and Mississippi I've visited.

You have my respect even moreso now. This is also a rare moment of cold hearted Kori actually paying somebody a genuine compliment, so I suggest you take it before I change my mind. ;)

Wow, Kori, I think you may be giving me more credit than I deserve, but I sincerely appreciate the thought behind your comment.

I really spend a silly amount of time on this site, and know that when it concerns knowledge of meteorology/atmospheric science, I am often trailing quite a few folks on this blog. So especially in light of this, your comment is unexpected. Nice, nonetheless.

Thanks for making my day :)

(And BTW, I don't think you're nearly as cold-hearted as you have stated...)
Drat it. SE NC and SC beaches are in the swell shadow of that offshore storm. Looks like the energy is headed toward OBX and FL, but running right by all points in between. Usually Wrightsville Beach snags some of the energy, but the cams are showing waist to chest high and weak. Folly Beach in SC looking even weaker.

Board is in the car, but unless something drastically changes, there it will stay. :-(

Cams:
www.surfchex.com

P.S. Surfchex also has some handy satellite links.

OBX is stormy, large and in charge. Probably double overhead on the outside.

Quoting 443. LAbonbon:



Quoting 583. HaoleboySurfEC:

Drat it. SE NC and SC beaches are in the swell shadow of that offshore storm. Looks like the energy is headed toward OBX and FL, but running right by all points in between. Usually Wrightsville Beach snags some of the energy, but the cams are showing waist to chest high and weak. Folly Beach in SC looking even weaker.

Board is in the car, but unless something drastically changes, there it will stay. :-(

Cams:
www.surfchex.com

P.S. Surfchex also has some handy satellite links.

OBX is stormy, large and in charge. Probably double overhead on the outside.



Morning, Haole - sorry to hear it's not looking favorable for you. How far are you from the OBX?
Good Morning... next week should be quite interesting across the deep south if things keep shaping up that way.
Quoting 579. hurricanes2018:



opps!!
i see it's right on top of D.C.We'll be driving back Monday afternoon so I hope this solution does not come true.
lol, the life of an east coast surfer. Similar to being a snow lover in the Mid-Atlantic. Seems to be an all or nothing proposition. 5 hours to Nags Head, 6 to Buxton (lighthouse).

But when it's on, it's on...and that's what keeps you coming back for more.

Folly Beach under 2 hours from work. My usual spot is Wrightsville, but a little too far to drive given the limited daylight.

Aloha

Quoting 584. LAbonbon:


Morning, Haole - sorry to hear it's not looking favorable for you. How far are you from the OBX?
Quoting 432. Jedkins01:



I don't really see why things that evolved can't be created, and science is neutral to religion. Science tells you how things work, but it can't and won't answer all questions, if so it would have to be assumed to be something else other than science.

Keep in mind that as technology changes, so will our ability to understand the past. Although anything ancient in nature means a natural lack of evidence in general. Many note the lack of evidence for evolution, however, alternatives from what I'm aware of so far have lacked much more in evidence.

It's not to say that couldn't change in the future, but the method for science is the model that is best fit for the most knowledge we currently have on a physical issue.
It's possible the development of the Universe, the Earth, and life, could look completely different, but today's scientific consensus is based on today's best known available knowledge and research.

As someone who is a theist, I see the whole debate as unnecessary and invented to cause division. If I were you I'd stay away from the argument. I don't see any productive outcome that which will come from it. This being a weather blog also really isn't the place for it either, it will do us all good not to engage in it. let's keep the focus on weather.

I could be wrong, but that's my take.


Jedkins, I appreciate your post and know you are involved in your studies and may not have the time for a philosophy of science course. If you do have the chance, take a few hours to read E.O. Wilson for a perspective of evolution from a theist perspective and Jerry Conye for the a-theist perspective. Stephen Gould is somewhere in the middle. They all argue - in the original meaning, to discuss a point. As I posted above, the answer could very well be 42, but may be explained by Subterranean Homesick Blues.
Quoting 515. HaoleboySurfEC:

Spent a year as a Fighting Blue Hen before transferring to UH. Rodney Hall A. Good times. Many good memories.

I wish her good luck.


Thanks Haoleboy :)
Good Morning. Interesting comments on the intersections between science and faith. It's certainly an interesting world out there and as I have mentioned on a few occasions (and noting the beautiful pictures of some of the cosmic stuff), regardless of your personal views on philosophy or religion, Mother Nature is the great equalizer and a beautiful thing to behold both in terms of Her natural beauty and potential for destruction as well; particular when it comes to weather. My main two personal interests, revolve around Mother Nature (fishing, astronomy) and music; I often see the world through the eyes of music; as a kid several decades ago, I was on the beach in South Florida with my family watching a night-time launch of an Apollo Saturn 5 launch and I remember it well. Not only because of the launch but because it was summer and the song playing on the radio as the rocket shot up was "Summer Breeze" by Seals and Croft....This was about 40 years ago but I remember it clear as a bell. Thus, here are the opening lyrics to one of my favorite songs to contribute this morning and "seasons", related to weather, is in the lyric. Enjoy your day people.


To everything, turn, turn, turn.
There is a season, turn, turn, turn.
And a time to every purpose under heaven.
A time to be born, a time to die.
A time to plant, a time to reap.
A time to kill, a time to heal.
A time to laugh, a time to weep.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Interesting comments on the intersections between science and faith. It's certainly an interesting world out there and as I have mentioned on a few occasions (and noting the beautiful pictures of some of the cosmic stuff), regardless of your personal views on philosophy or religion, Mother Nature is the great equalizer and a beautiful thing to behold both in terms of Her natural beauty and potential for destruction as well; particular when it comes to weather. My main two personal interests, revolve around Mother Nature (fishing, astronomy) and music; I often see the world through the eyes of music; as a kid several decades ago, I was on the beach in South Florida with my family watching a night-time launch of an Apollo Saturn 5 launch and I remember it well. Not only because of the launch but because it was summer and the song playing on the radio as the rocket shot up was "Summer Breeze" by Seals and Croft....This was about 40 years ago but I remember it clear as a bell. Thus, here are the opening lyrics to one of my favorite songs to contribute this morning and "seasons", related to weather, is in the lyric. Enjoy your day people.


To everything, turn, turn, turn.
There is a season, turn, turn, turn.
And a time to every purpose under heaven.
A time to be born, a time to die.
A time to plant, a time to reap.
A time to kill, a time to heal.
A time to laugh, a time to weep.
The only song written by Pete Seeger with the lyrics lifted directly from the Book of Ecclesiastes although, as he said, he did write six words of the song. :-)
Quoting 471. BayFog:

The recent rain event in California caused me to think more carefully about this relatively new (1992-96) term, "atmospheric river" (originally in 1992 called "tropospheric river"). For one, the event itself did not seem at all unusual, especially given the media hype preceding it. For another, it did not look in all respects like any of the more copious systems we have seen out here in the past, especially those popularly called "Pineapple Connection". It was undeniable that there was a flux of tropical moisture, but most systems in the midlatitudes have fluxes of tropical air. So what was unique or more unique? And are atmospheric rivers so-called really unusual at all, meriting "storm of the century" hype?

So pondering the question and re-reading the original papers proposing and exploring the concept, I think I can articulate a definition, submitted for your commentary:

Atmospheric river - Any channelized transport of surface-based moist air in the western "backside" flow of an area of high pressure in the tropical regions north or south of the Equator which carries warm humid air from the tropics northward to higher latitudes where, under various conditions, it is lifted and cooled, producing varying amounts of precipitation, in extreme cases, large amounts capable of producing flooding on land.
Good definition, Bay Fog.

I lived most of my adult life - 47 years - in the S.F. Bay Area (25 years around Berkeley and Oakland, 10 years in Marin County, and 12 years in Sonoma County.) I "retired" to Boquete, a small tourist town in the mountains of Western Panama, three years ago at age 70.
As this (LINK) to Wikipedia says, "pineapple express" is the name given to the U.S. West Coast "atmospheric rivers."

However, my fuzzy memories are of "pineapple express" only being used for the major and extreme precipitation events that sometimes lasted several days. Lesser events were simply called "fronts with subtropical taps" in the local weather reports. Now "subtropical tap" has a newer name - "atmospheric river."

Like most other things in the continuum of our existence, language and terminology are not static, and evolve over time.
Not sure what today's 12z runs will not, but the 00z models overnight has already shifted next week Tuesday's storm farther North, which would be an indication that the pattern hasn't changed much. Front end thump snows to rain if the solution verifies up the I-95 corridor.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning... next week should be quite interesting across the deep south if things keep shaping up that way.
I assume you're talking about next Tuesday. The models have a lot of shaping up to do before I can get too interested. The GEM/CMC wants to bring snow all the way to the Gulf coast as a surface low bumps along just offshore. The GFS and Euro say the low is going inland somewhere in Louisiana and then travels far to the north of most of us down here. It looks like another case of battling models now, and seven days out at that. Given the model performance so far this winter, I'll wait a few more days before I go through the junk in the garage looking for my snow shovel. :-)


Europe's mini-space shuttle launches
11 February 2015 Last updated at 13:40 GMT
The European Space Agency (Esa) has launched its unmanned mini "spaceplane" demonstrator.
The IXV spaceplane resembles a smaller, robotically controlled version of the US space shuttle and could provide Europe with a new, re-useable space transportation system.
The test could inform future technology for landing payloads on Mars.
The vehicle blasted off on a Vega rocket from South America just after 13:40 GMT.
The test vehicle is due to fly east around the globe, before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean some 100 minutes after launch.
The wedge-shaped IXV (Intermediate eXperimental Vehicle) is designed to gather information on how space objects fall back to Earth.
Engineers will be gathering copious data as the "mini-shuttle" falls back down to Earth. ....


Twitter-coverage: Reentry is happening right now.

Live-Broadcast from Italy and the Pacific Ocean where they are waiting for the spacecraft.


Youtube-Video of the launch.

Infos about the project:
Quoting 561. LAbonbon:


goosegirl1 - the majority of his response to you is verbatim language that's been posted on different religious sites and forums, discussing this exact topic.

His response to LAGotNoWeather (the high school science teacher) is an unwarranted diss of scientists, includes a reference to a religious site that uses religion to answer science questions, and he confuses the cited reference and makes a misstatement/is confused about carbon dating being used to date things that are billions of years old. The end of the cited reference ends with "This challenges those who promote the faith of radioisotope dating, especially when it contradicts the clear eyewitness chronology of the Word of God."

Seems the kid's poor opinion of scientists has been formed early, and he has not learned where to get objective information. Is he even aware there are objective sources he could reference, or is using religious sites as references acceptable for his science classes?

One can't really successfully discuss science with an ideologue. Hopefully he'll learn to look in additional places for his information.

Then of course there is the issue with taking stuff verbatim from other web sources without citing them or linking back to them...
Quoting 595. Drakoen:

Not sure what today's 12z runs will not, but the 00z models overnight has already shifted next week Tuesday's storm farther North, which would be an indication that the pattern hasn't changed much. Front end thump snows to rain if the solution verifies up the I-95 corridor.
This just isn't the mid-atlantic's year for snow.I'm looking forward to Spring.Hopefully we'll see more 60's in March once this boring weather is over with.
Quoting 599. washingtonian115:

This just isn't the mid-atlantic's year for snow.I'm looking forward to Spring.Hopefully we'll see more 60's in March once this boring weather is over with.


The big problem is the North Atlantic Oscillation. The dominant positive NAO does not bode well for us. There's nothing to stop systems from trending north with a positive NAO due to the lack of blocking.

602. jpsb
Quoting 555. whitewabit:



I believe most people on a science blog believe in Darwinism .. And Weather is a science !!

Per WIKI ..
Darwinism is a theory of biological evolution developed by Charles Darwin and others, stating that all species of organisms arise and develop through the natural selection of small, inherited variations that increase the individual's ability to compete, survive, and reproduce. Also called Darwinian theory, it originally included the broad concepts of transmutation of species or of evolution which gained general scientific acceptance when Charles Robert Darwin published On the Origin of Species, including concepts which predated Darwin's theories, but subsequently referred to specific concepts of natural selection, the Weismann barrier or in genetics the central dogma of molecular biology.[1] Though it usually refers strictly to biological evolution, the term has been used by creationists to refer to the origin of life, and has even been applied to concepts of cosmic evolution, both of which have no connection to Darwin's work. It is therefore considered the belief and acceptance of Darwin's, and his predecessors, work in place of other theories including divine design and extraterrestrial origins.[2][3]


I have a few problems with Darwinism, but I do not deny that there is some mechanism which creates more complex life forms from simpler life forms. We call that mechanism evolution, which is fine with me. Survival of the fittest (Darwinism) is I think a result of evolution not a cause.

I choose to believe in a Creator for one very simple reason. I exist. Either the universe always was and always will be or it was created out of absolutely nothing at some point in the past. No one alive can tell me with certainty which of the two possibilities is correct or that both are incorrect.

In fact no one can tell me with certainty what time or space or even energy is.

Draw a huge circle and but a pencil dot in the middle. The dot is what we humans know the rest of the circle is what we don't know.

I believe in a Creator others don't, which is fine, what I object to is having my beliefs (and others like me) being ridiculed by folks that have not the tiniest clue of how the universe really got here or how the universe really works.
Quoting 601. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol.




I wouldn't count on that happening. With no signs of changes to the NAO there's nothing to stop that from trending north and west.
Quoting 599. washingtonian115:

This just isn't the mid-atlantic's year for snow.I'm looking forward to Spring.Hopefully we'll see more 60's in March once this boring weather is over with.


It may be snow deficient but the next ten days aint gonna be boring in DC
Quoting 456. Xulonn:

Please explain how your sentence

"There are claims that the Syrian drought caused by global warming led at least indirectly to the current revolution in that country."

is a "specific reference" to a Dr. Masters blog entry.

Also, there can be trigger events or conditions that set off a problem that has been building up, and those trigger events can be unrelated to the core conditions that set up the potential for explosive changes such as the beginning or escalation of a conflict.

In the same manner, factors not related to CO2 could trigger a tipping point in AGW/CC, something that is especially worrisome in areas such as sudden exit glacier speed increases and consequent sea level rise.
So the drought in Syria, a desert climate was caused by global warming, and has never occurred before, just like the drought in California is caused by the drought to. People are the cause of climate change, reduce the population by a half or so and climate change will go away. This planet was not designed to hold 7 billion people and counting and until something happens to change that, there will always be a problem. Lets worry about things we might be able to change, like cleaning up our waters, air, and over harvesting of our sea life, and if we can accomplish this then maybe their is hope for us all.


if this storm move to the northeast watch out for a few feet of snow!!
Quoting 503. Grothar:


Haven't you noticed it hasn't been the same since I am not on anymore? :)

Some day I may chime in on the AGW debate and really get things going.
Great news, Grothar - the AGW/CC rhetorical war could use a good shot of your humor. Even serious and depressing subjects need a bit of comic relief occasionally - and I don't mean the cartoons that both sides use to bash the other.

(Although I do perceive many of the denialist cartoons as being dumb to the point cringeworthy.)
608. redux
Quoting 580. georgevandenberghe:



THe key phrase to take away is "Tuesday is a week away"

But that said, I am also very interested in this system in the DC metro area. With no cold high locked in to the northeast it does not look like an epic snow but snow, freezing rain, or cold rain are possibilities and a good analog remains Jan 17, 1994, with a snow to freezing rain to rain event sandwiched between two epic arctic outbreaks. It produced over an inch of water equivalent just 24-36 hours after near extreme arctic cold and followed two days later by extreme (note I intentionally dropped "near") arctic cold with highs in the single digits in DC metro. The 2" of snow followed by a cm of ice pellets followed by rain, was then followed by the cold which made a 1.5" sheet of ice so thick even grassy areas were difficult to walk on. 1993-94 was an interesting winter.


I recall we were literally ice skating as kids. I fell and busted my chin. still have a scar.

we were actually on the news, as they did a rolling brown-out and somehow our power wasn't turned back on. we didn't have power for the entire day, when the temp was like 2. huddled in the room with the fireplace...no light...with all the blankets.
Quoting 572. JohnLonergan:

... BTW, Georges Lemaitre who postulated the "Big Bang Theory" was a Jesuit Abbe. ...

PLENARY SESSION OF THE PONTIFICAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, Monday, 27 October 2014, speech from Pope Francis:
"... You are addressing the highly complex subject of the evolution of the concept of nature. I will not go into the scientific complexity, which you well understand, of this important and crucial question. I only want to underline that God and Christ are walking with us and are also present in nature, as the Apostle Paul stated in his discourse at the Areopagus: "In him we live and move and have our being" (Acts 17:28). When we read the account of Creation in Genesis we risk imagining that God was a magician, complete with an all powerful magic wand. But that was not so. He created beings and he let them develop according to the internal laws with which He endowed each one, that they might develop, and reach their fullness. He gave autonomy to the beings of the universe at the same time in which He assured them of his continual presence, giving life to every reality. And thus Creation has been progressing for centuries and centuries, millennia and millennia, until becoming as we know it today, precisely because God is not a demiurge or a magician, but the Creator who gives life to all beings. The beginning of the world was not a work of chaos that owes its origin to another, but derives directly from a supreme Principle who creates out of love. The Big Bang theory, which is proposed today as the origin of the world, does not contradict the intervention of a divine creator but depends on it. Evolution in nature does not conflict with the notion of Creation, because evolution presupposes the creation of beings who evolve. ..."
610. jpsb
Quoting 605. NativeSun:

then maybe their is hope for us all.


You really mean hope for half of us don't you?
Quoting 596. sar2401:

I assume you're talking about next Tuesday. The models have a lot of shaping up to do before I can get too interested. The GEM/CMC wants to bring snow all the way to the Gulf coast as a surface low bumps along just offshore. The GFS and Euro say the low is going inland somewhere in Louisiana and then travels far to the north of most of us down here. It looks like another case of battling models now, and seven days out at that. Given the model performance so far this winter, I'll wait a few more days before I go through the junk in the garage looking for my snow shovel. :-)

You actually still have a snow shovel? I gave all mine away when I made the move.
System #1: Late Wednesday-Early Friday update at 10am on feb 11 2015
A powerful arctic cold front plunging out of the Canadian prairies and its vigorous jet stream disturbance will set the stage for more snow in the Northeast starting Thursday.

(FORECAST: Coldest Air This Winter Ahead)

Given the system's trajectory, it has been somewhat moisture-starved initially, spreading light to locally moderate snow and freezing rain through parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tuesday. Light to moderate snow will spread into the Great Lakes through Wednesday and into the Northeast Thursday.

(INTERACTIVE RADAR: Track the Snow | Winter Alerts)

Thursday night into Friday, low pressure will intensify off the coast of southeast New England then head toward Nova Scotia.

We think the deepening surface low will remain far enough offshore to keep the best chance for 6 inches of snow offshore of coastal New England.

Snowfall amounts in the Boston metro should remain very light, generally around an inch or so. Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket will generally see 3 inches or less of total snow through Friday morning, though some ocean-effect snowbands may linger over parts of Cape Cod.

Lighter amounts (dusting to an inch) are anticipated over the rest of New England and the Northeast.

(FORECASTS: Boston | Providence | NYC)

Perhaps the biggest impact will be strong winds behind the arctic front and developing offshore low, producing areas of blowing and drifting snow, given the heavy snowpack in place over New England and parts of Upstate New York.

This isn't the only future snowmaker to watch.

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 131 Comments: 120011


storm one a fw inches of snow for new haven to boston
east Haven, CT Weather
9:45 am EST
Weather Condition Icon
22°F
Feels Like 7°
Partly Cloudy / Windy

Next 6 Hours
Mostly sunny with temperatures rising towards the upper 20s. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph.
Quoting 586. washingtonian115:

i see it's right on top of D.C.We'll be driving back Monday afternoon so I hope this solution does not come true.









It'll be interesting if this pans out.
Quoting 583. HaoleboySurfEC:

Drat it. SE NC and SC beaches are in the swell shadow of that offshore storm. Looks like the energy is headed toward OBX and FL, but running right by all points in between. Usually Wrightsville Beach snags some of the energy, but the cams are showing waist to chest high and weak. Folly Beach in SC looking even weaker.

Board is in the car, but unless something drastically changes, there it will stay. :-(

Cams:
www.surfchex.com

P.S. Surfchex also has some handy satellite links.

OBX is stormy, large and in charge. Probably double overhead on the outside.




Sorry 'bout that dude. At least you have the boards on the car- mine are collecting dust in the barn. Hoping for a surfari to Hawaii this summer to visit our friend's coffee plantation in Kona - we sell his grinds at our farm coffee shop so it can be a "work trip". Gotta love that!
Quoting 614. hurricanes2018:



storm one a fw inches of snow for new haven to boston



Those storms are going to be more about the strong arctic winds and brutal cold rather than snow. There's not a lot of moisture with the first storm.
Horrible update to post #560:

Hundreds of migrants killed in new Mediterranean tragedy, says UN
BBC, 11 February 2015 Last updated at 14:43 GMT
At least 300 migrants are feared to have drowned after attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa this week in rough seas, the UN says.
UNHCR Europe director Vincent Cochetel said the incident was a "tragedy on an enormous scale". ...


In previous years those attempts used to be refined to calm days in summer. Really criminal of those smugglers to send those desparate people out to sea in inept vessels during a severe storm!
NASA Earth Observatory has a really interesting article that discusses land 'gain' at the mouth of the Atchafalaya and overall land loss throughout the Mississippi delta region. It has a really cool series of time lapse images between 1984 and 2014.

Growing Deltas in Atchafalaya Bay
February 10, 2015



The delta plain of the Mississippi River is disappearing. The lobe-shaped arc of coastal land from the Chandeleur Islands in eastern Louisiana to the Sabine River loses a football field’s worth of land every hour. Put another way, the delta has shrunk by nearly 5,000 square kilometers (2,000 square miles) over the past 80 years. That’s as if most of Delaware had sunk into the sea.

Though land losses are widely distributed across the 300 kilometer (200 mile) wide coastal plain of Louisiana, Atchafalaya Bay stands as a notable exception. In a swampy area south of Morgan City, new land is forming at the mouths of the Wax Lake Outlet and the Atchafalaya River. Wax Lake Outlet is an artificial channel that diverts some of the river’s flow into the bay about 16 kilometers (10 miles) west of where the main river empties.

This series of false-color satellite images chronicles the growth of the two deltas between 1984 and 2014. All of the images were acquired by instruments on Landsat satellites: the Thematic Mapper on Landsat 5, the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus on Landsat 7, and the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8. A combination of shortwave infrared, near infrared, and green light was used to accentuate differences between land and water. Water appears dark blue; vegetation is green; bare ground is pink. All of the images were acquired in autumn, when river discharge tends to be low.
Read full article
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 621. LAbonbon:

NASA Earth Observatory has a really interesting article that discusses land 'gain' at the mouth of the Atchafalaya and overall land loss throughout the Mississippi delta region. It has a really cool series of time lapse images between 1984 and 2014.

Growing Deltas in Atchafalaya Bay
February 10, 2015



The delta plain of the Mississippi River is disappearing. The lobe-shaped arc of coastal land from the Chandeleur Islands in eastern Louisiana to the Sabine River loses a football field’s worth of land every hour. Put another way, the delta has shrunk by nearly 5,000 square kilometers (2,000 square miles) over the past 80 years. That’s as if most of Delaware had sunk into the sea.

Though land losses are widely distributed across the 300 kilometer (200 mile) wide coastal plain of Louisiana, Atchafalaya Bay stands as a notable exception. In a swampy area south of Morgan City, new land is forming at the mouths of the Wax Lake Outlet and the Atchafalaya River. Wax Lake Outlet is an artificial channel that diverts some of the river’s flow into the bay about 16 kilometers (10 miles) west of where the main river empties.

This series of false-color satellite images chronicles the growth of the two deltas between 1984 and 2014. All of the images were acquired by instruments on Landsat satellites: the Thematic Mapper on Landsat 5, the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus on Landsat 7, and the Operational Land Imager on Landsat 8. A combination of shortwave infrared, near infrared, and green light was used to accentuate differences between land and water. Water appears dark blue; vegetation is green; bare ground is pink. All of the images were acquired in autumn, when river discharge tends to be low.
Read full article



If the Mississippi is allowed to run its natural course, it would divert into the Atchafalaya River. 30% of the mississippi river is currently allowed through the Old River Control Structure.