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Groundhog Says: 6 More Weeks of Winter; Top-Five Snowstorm Belts Chicago, Detroit

By: Jeff Masters 1:45 PM GMT on February 02, 2015

A classic mid-winter snowstorm is sweeping across the nation, dumping heavy snow along a swath 2,000 miles long from Colorado to Maine. On Sunday the storm blasted Chicago with heavy snow and strong winds that created near-whiteout blizzard conditions, bringing the city its fifth heaviest snow on record--19.3". More than 18" of snow plastered Northwest Indiana and Southwest Michigan, with a storm-maximum snowfall amount of 20" observed in Kalamazoo, Michigan. Here in Southeast Michigan, my snow shoveling muscles are sore today after dealing with the 16.7" the storm dumped on Detroit--the city's third heaviest snowfall on record. By Monday morning, the storm had moved on to Ohio, hitting Cleveland with 4.7". The biggest totals during the remainder of the storm's trek are expected in snow-weary Massachusetts, with snow amounts near 12" expected in Boston. That city received 24.4" of snow from last week's blizzard; several locations in Central Massachusetts near Worcester received 36" of snow, and are expecting another 12" from this storm.


Figure 1. Westbound I-88 near IL Rte 53 in Lisle, Illinois on Sunday 2/1/15 @3:56pm CST. Image credit: Wunderphotographer Hammelmom.

Chicago's Five Biggest Snowstorms Since 1871:
1. 23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967
2. 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999
3. 21.2 inches Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011
4. 20.3 inches Jan 12-14, 1979
5. 19.3 inches Jan. 31-Feb 2, 2015

Detroit's Five Biggest Snowstorms Since 1880:
1. 24.5 inches Apr 6, 1886
2. 19.3 inches Dec 1-2, 1974
3. 16.7 inches Feb 1-2, 2015
4. 16.1 inches, Mar 4-5, 1900
5. 14.0 inches, Feb 28-Mar 1, 1900

Groundhog Says: Six More Weeks of Winter!
In Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, home of the world's most famous prognosticating rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, 3" of snow had fallen by Sunday evening, and on Monday morning the town was beset by a lovely wintry mix of snow, rain and freezing rain that only a hibernating groundhog could love. However, the skies cleared briefly at sunrise on Monday morning, allowing Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow and make his usual fearless prognostication for the remainder of winter:

“Forecasts abound on the Internet,
But I, Punxsutawney Phil, am still your best bet,
Yes, A shadow I see, you can start to twitter,
Hashtag: Six More Weeks of Winter!”



Figure 2. Canada's famous albino groundhog named Wiarton Willy from the town of Wiarton, Ontario. Willie failed to see his shadow at dawn Monday, so his prediction calls for an early end to winter--in late February. In New York City, groundhog forecaster Staten Island Chuck also predicted an early end to winter. Image credit: wunderphotographer pincollector1.

How did this this crazy tradition start?
It all started in Europe, centuries ago, when February 2 was a holiday called Candlemas (much like Halloween and May Day, Candlemas is another ancient holiday positioned near the halfway point between solstice and equinox.) On Candlemas, people prayed for mild weather for the remainder of winter. The superstition arose that if a hibernating badger woke up and saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of severe winter weather. When Europeans settled the New World, they didn't find any badgers. So, instead of building wooden badgers, they decided to use native groundhogs (aka the woodchuck, land beaver, or whistlepig) as their prognosticating rodent.

The Groundhog Oscillation: convincing evidence of climate change!
According to a 2001 article published in the prestigious Annals of Improbable Research, "The Groundhog Oscillation: Evidence of Global Change", Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts have shown a high variability since 1980. This pattern, part of the larger "Groundhog Oscillation" or GO cycle, is convincing evidence of human-caused climate change.

Grading Phil's forecasts
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) analyzed Punxsutawney Phil’s forecasts over the past 27 years (thanks to Doyle Rice of USA Today for pointing this out.) If we evaluate just the twelve years when the departure of February and March temperatures from average over the contiguous U.S. were both of the same sign, Phil had five correct forecasts and seven blown forecasts. NOAA concludes that “It really isn't a 'bright' idea to take a measure such as a groundhog's shadow and use it as a predictive meteorological tool for the entire United States.”

What the pros say
The latest 16-day run of the GFS model shows the jet stream remaining farther south than usual over the eastern half of the U.S. during the coming two weeks, with our omnipresent "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" of high pressure anchored over the Western U.S. This pattern will result in colder than average temperatures over the eastern half of the country, and warmer than average temperatures over the western half. The latest 1-month forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows this pattern dominating through February. The latest seasonal forecast from WSI.com agrees with this idea, but predicts that a warmer than average pattern may emerge over the Midwest and South during the last week of February, with below average temperatures confined to just the Northeast. Heading into March and April, WSI predicts warmer than average conditions across the northern tier of states, and cooler than average over the South (except for California, which will remain warm.) The latest 3-month forecasts for February - April from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society and from CPC show the odds for cold weather easing over the Eastern U.S. during the period February - April, with near-equal chances of above or below-average temperatures. They forecast increased odds of cooler than average weather over Texas, with increased odds of warmer than average weather along the West Coast.


Figure 3. Temperature outlook for February 2015, as predicted by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on January 31, 2015. A continuation of the cool in the east, warm in the west pattern is favored.

Jeff Masters
Stonegate West
Stonegate West
Brrrrr.
Brrrrr.
Frost Fairie
Frost Fairie
Where's Waldo
Where's Waldo
A Bluejay enjoys the feeding platform while a 'Where's Waldo' gathering of Cardinals watches from the snow-covered trees. Taken on a day when the Quad City area got over 14 inches of new snow!
York, Maine
York, Maine
York, Maine. Cape Neddick/Nubble Light thomashmitchell.com

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.Winter here sucks! nothing but cold rain.Meanwhile Joe B still continues to ring the siren
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 21h 21 hours ago
MJO ECMWF bias correction now seeing MJO heading into the Holy grail of winter phases for US , 8,1,2

thanks for a fun start to the week.
Thanks, Doc and good morning. It's funny, myself and most members of my community are wishing we had that snow. Instead, we get that blob of "above normal" temps on your map, with only rain on the horizon.
Truckee, CA forecast
the dig out begins soon

thanks for update have a great Monday
It's been cold here, but this is the first real snow. I'll take it over last winter any day.
Thanks Jeff...
Where can I find the local snowfall amounts (as reported by trained spotters)? I used to be able to find them on this site. What happens out in Romulus (DTW) often has no relation to what we measure here in the majority of the Detroit metro area.
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

Thanks Doc.Winter here sucks! nothing but cold rain.Meanwhile Joe B still continues to ring the siren
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi � 21h 21 hours ago
MJO ECMWF bias correction now seeing MJO heading into the Holy grail of winter phases for US , 8,1,2




Let's see if it produces something.

Thanks Doc.
I hate the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of high pressure. I wish there was something that could be done about it (along with the rest of California/Nevada/Arizona/et al)
Quoting 10. Drakoen:



Let's see if it produces something.



Probably more blizzards across the Northeast, 33F and rain in DC, and suppression depression down here.
Cool entry,






TWC might as well set up an office in Boston, another snowstorm possible Weds/Thurs.
then again Monday next week.
Thanks for the Groundhog Day blog Jeff.

We've almost lost that patio furniture set we've been watching in Chestnut Hill, MA. All that is left is the top of the chair on the right. The one on the left just went under.
Thank You Dr. and Good Morning Folks. Here is today's look over Conus and the relative position of the Jet. Only reason I am hoping for the warmer than average for the last week of February for the South model run is for warmer sst's along the coast going into March so I get get back to to my go-to wade fishing flat in March rather then April; I need 70 plus water temps there when the Trout and Redfish bite is best at this particular location and the sooner the better.



Quoting 13. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Probably more blizzards across the Northeast, 33F and rain in DC, and suppression depression down here.


Sssshhhhh!

I actually like the ECMWF and UKMET 00z run. Way off-shore Miller A potential with a couple hundred miles of wiggle room for when the models decide to do a 90 degree shift west in track. Teleconnections are positive PNA, negative NAO, negative EPO for the time being. Not getting my hopes up though.

Seattle may break a Teardrop record today after that Storm last night,

Huh?
Quoting 18. Drakoen:



Sssshhhhh!

I actually like the ECMWF and UKMET 00z run. Way off-shore Miller A potential with a couple hundred miles of wiggle room for when the models decide to do a 90 degree shift west in track. Teleconnections are positive PNA, negative NAO, negative EPO for the time being. Not getting my hopes up though.




I jus Love it to death when you talk all Winter sexy like dat Drak,

40 F here with Gust to 30mph?

The local Nutria saw his shadow here, so no Rain for Mardi Gras!!!
Quoting WildcatRudy:
Where can I find the local snowfall amounts (as reported by trained spotters)? I used to be able to find them on this site. What happens out in Romulus (DTW) often has no relation to what we measure here in the majority of the Detroit metro area.
For Chicago.

For Detroit

You can click different numbers on the "Versions" list near the top of the page to see more reports.
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=b ox&gage=ntkm3
8.8 feet must be wrong right?
the Blizzard was only 7.5 and that was significant flooding.
Quoting 18. Drakoen:



Sssshhhhh!

I actually like the ECMWF and UKMET 00z run. Way off-shore Miller A potential with a couple hundred miles of wiggle room for when the models decide to do a 90 degree shift west in track. Teleconnections are positive PNA, negative NAO, negative EPO for the time being. Not getting my hopes up though.


Throw in a negative 6 AO and we will have a nice winter storm..:)
Quoting 22. Methurricanes:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo= b ox&gage=ntkm3
8.8 feet must be wrong right?
the Blizzard was only 7.5 and that was significant flooding.

Is this the one you're referring to?

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Well what do you know, i got a dusting of snow!
Quoting 22. Methurricanes:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo= b ox&gage=ntkm3
8.8 feet must be wrong right?
the Blizzard was only 7.5 and that was significant flooding.



(Source)
28. vis0
Thank you Dr. Masters for a classy & full report that enlightens while being to the point on a weird subject...nibble nibble.
Now on the other paw, theirs Washi115s comment, Washi115 you need to fix your vacuum,  : - p
operative word "nibble nibble". Also when taking pixtures with rodents try not to say 'cheeeeeese" it throws off their meteroLOGICAL senses.
Finally in the hind paws there's my #39 comment to self at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.htm l?entrynum=257
29. vis0
☺If we evaluate just the twelve years when the departure of February and
March temperatures from average over the contiguous U.S. were both of
the same sign, GFS had five correct forecasts and seven blown
forecasts. NOAA concludes that “It really isn't a 'bright' idea to
take a measure such as...   ... and use it as a predictive
meteorological tool for the entire United States.”
  ☺

SEE WHAT i DID!

Notice its quoted in sarcasm (face) quotes

Thursday evening you have a good shot for rain south florida..good luck..
Quoting 27. LAbonbon:




(Source)

In the latest update to the gauge data, you can see that an adjustment was made which lowered the recorded elevation significantly.
Quoting 16. Skyepony:

Thanks for the Groundhog Day blog Jeff.

We've almost lost that patio furniture set we've been watching in Chestnut Hill, MA. All that is left is the top of the chair on the right. The one on the left just went under.



This really has to be pastine or hobby of the year so far.
Watching garden furniture disapear under the snowfall!

Meanwhile, thank you Dr. Masters for another enlitening and mind boggleing blog.
soooo........our good friend the groundhog is right about 38 percent of the time......i'm thinking that qualifies phil to be a WU blogger....or become chief forecaster for colorado university doing pre-season tropical storm predictions



Quoting 31. ScottLincoln:


In the latest update to the gauge data, you can see that an adjustment was made which lowered the recorded elevation significantly.


Yeah, I see that. What causes such a difference (5 feet)? I'm not that familiar with tidal gauge measurements.
Quoting 30. LargoFl:

Thursday evening you have a good shot for rain south florida..good luck..

It would appear the bigger story is California getting some much needed rain!
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 PM EST this evening...

* locations...central portions of the lower Hudson Valley... interior portions of northeastern New Jersey...and much of southern Connecticut.

* Hazard types...heavy snow...sleet...and freezing rain.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches...along with around one quarter of an inch of ice.

* Timing...heavy snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain...then change back to snow in the afternoon.

* Temperatures...in the teens to lower 20s.

* Winds...north 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Visibilities...one quarter to one half mile at times.

* Snowfall rates...up to 1 inch per hour.

* Impacts...hazardous travel due to reduced visibilities and significant snow...sleet and ice accumulations.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight...food... and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Nice gusty (20-25 mph) moist (bad hair day) southwest flow off the Gulf of Mexico down here. Definitely feels like it's going to rain outside.
Quoting auspiv:

It would appear the bigger story is California getting some much needed rain!


That would be a bigger story than rain in Florida, snow in New England, etc.
Hopefully California gets some much needed rain.
Quoting 19. Patrap:

Seattle may break a Teardrop record today after that Storm last night,

Huh?


Too soon, Patrap... ;-)
Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:



Nice gusty (20-25 mph) moist (bad hair day) southwest flow off the Gulf of Mexico down here. Definitely feels like it's going to rain outside.



Heavy rain falling at my location now. The line is moving through quickly, so I don't think totals will be high. But, for now, it is pouring.



the West coast is the Best coast for precip

Tropical storms intensify Madagascar plague outbreak

C&P
World Health Organization leaders say Madagascar’s plague problems went unnoticed last year under the shadow of West Africa’s Ebola outbreak.

Cyclones Bansi and Chedza flooded the island this month raising alarms among disease experts as thousands of displaced residents face increased risk of infection.

The storms have sent “an untold number” of rats scurrying out of hiding to seek safety from rising waters, WHO director Dr. Margaret Chan warned.

“Plague is endemic in Madagascar,” Chan said this week in Geneva.

She fears the outbreak could persist and grow because it has taken hold of Madagascar’s capital of Antananarivo with its impoverished slums.

The International Society for Infectious Diseases identified 10 suspected cases earlier this month.

Last year’s bubonic outbreak produced 119 cases of plague, killing at least 40 people in November, WHO statistics show.


more snow on thursday
Quoting 42. ricderr:




the West coast is the Best coast for precip




It seems like there has been a permanent 10+ inch bullseye on coastal Oregon and Washington all winter. If these totals are verifying, I'm shocked we're not seeing more news about flooding in those areas.
Last month was pretty average around here, part of a pretty average winter so far. Hoping that we get at least one good winter storm across the Southeast this month or next month, but I'm starting to lose hope.

I'm sure Boston will get a few more blizzards though.



11:53 AM EST on February 02, 2015 sleet in new haven,conn Current Radar
Quoting tampabaymatt:


It seems like there has been a permanent 10+ inch bullseye on coastal Oregon and Washington all winter. If these totals are verifying, I'm shocked we're not seeing more news about flooding in those areas.


Drizzle in Atlanta will get more attention than 10" of rain and flash flooding in the Pacific North West. I don't think TWC can go 30 seconds without saying "Atlanta."
I know TWC is based out of Atlanta, but it can be ridiculous at times.

Sorry WC but it's so true.

Quoting 36. auspiv:


It would appear the bigger story is California getting some much needed rain!
yes they sure need it out there..good luck to them.
Quoting 42. ricderr:




the West coast is the Best coast for precip





That map shows where the seahawks fans are. ;)
I don't think TWC can go 30 seconds without saying "Atlanta."

Kinda like here going a whole 50 comments without a, er, "Fla. post", ..you meant ?

O da ironies..

: )

Quoting 36. auspiv:


It would appear the bigger story is California getting some much needed rain!
Sorry, wrong coast -- not news. :-)
Quoting 52. Patrap:

I don't think TWC can go 30 seconds without saying "Atlanta."

Kinda like here going a whole 50 comments without a, er, "Fla. post", ..you meant ?

O da ironies..

: )




The rain is pushing away from Tampa now. It only rained heavily for a few minutes. It looked like areas to the south of me, closer to the Tampa reporting station, got heavier rain for once.
Quoting Patrap:
I don't think TWC can go 30 seconds without saying "Atlanta."

Kinda like here going a whole 50 comments without a, er, "Fla. post", ..you meant ?

O da ironies..

: )



Or a Dooms Day Climate Change Comment.:)
Hopefully the rain will spread to the south.
Today has been awful. Two inches of snow followed by rain (with four or so inches already on the ground) has turned the whole area into a miserable, slushy snow cone. Ruined my shoes walking to class today, ended up stepping in multiple hidden puddles. Had to go to class like that. Meanwhile temperatures are dropping rapidly with the next front and everything is still wet, creating a dangerous flash freeze situation in and around NYC. I can already see the beginnings of it, the trees have a nice glaze and there is that gentle crackling sound. Pretty nerve-wracking.

Why didn't I go to a Florida school?
Quoting 42. ricderr:




the West coast is the Best coast for precip


Just wait for the east coast strip to shift NW into New England.
Quoting 45. tampabaymatt:



It seems like there has been a permanent 10 inch bullseye on coastal Oregon and Washington all winter. If these totals are verifying, I'm shocked we're not seeing more news about flooding in those areas.


The WPC always over does the rainfall totals there, check out the local NWS forecasts and you won't see anything about rainfall forecasts that high over that region. My guess is that they don't have the resolution to show only parts of the area like mountain slopes that get that much. If Seattle had as much precip as the WPC has been showing they would have doubled their yearly average rainfall by now.

Even for the elevation enhanced rainforest areas, this seems still overkill. Some of the really wet location receive 80-120 inches a year, and a couple isolated locations even more than that. However, even then, the totals seem overkill, the WPC has shown literally 6-12 inch for the week forecast for the last several weeks. If it did verify , we area talking close to are exceeding 50 inches in the last month or so.

Let's not forget that in mountainous terrain, while some areas get enhanced rain, others do not, these totals would be breaking records in Seattle which averages a little under 40 inches of yearly precip, which while it is still a wet city, isn't nearly as wet as some parts of the pacific northwest, and those totals would mean record breaking, and leading to flash flooding.

Also, there area even some rain shadow areas that get as low as 10-20 inches yearly in the Seattle on the opposite slopes of the rainforests that average over 100, so that forecast would be even more ridiculous.

Look op the local NWS forecasts for these areas, they show plenty of rain, but nothing close to this, which would be flash flooding news of verified. The NWS in Seattle is forecasting some pretty heavy heavy totals as usual for the rainforest areas in access of several areas, but isn't showing anywhere near the amount of the rain as the WPC area, nor covering such a large swath, and specifically says no major flooding concerns appear to be a threat this week, accepts maybe some typically wetter mountain slopes. But again, those area the rainforest area, no surprise.

This is one of the reasons the WPC rain outlook is not my cup of tea.
TWC is saying 8-12 inches for Boston on Thursday. jim Cantore will never leave.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
GULF BEACHES OF COLLIER COUNTY.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A RISK OF WATERSPOUTS WITH SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY.

Quoting 60. Jedkins01:



The WPC always over does the rainfall totals there, check out the local NWS forecasts and you won't see anything about rainfall forecasts that high over that region. My guess is that they don't have the resolution to show only parts of the area like mountain slopes that get that much. If Seattle had as much precip as the WPC has been showing they would have doubled their yearly average rainfall by now.

Even for the elevation enhanced rainforest areas, this seems still overkill. Some of the really wet location receive 80-120 inches a year, and a couple isolated locations even more than that. However, even then, the totals seem overkill, the WPC has shown literally 6-12 inch for the week forecast for the last several weeks. If it did verify , we area talking close to are exceeding 50 inches in the last month or so.

Let's not forget that in mountainous terrain, while some areas get enhanced rain, others do not, these totals would be breaking records in Seattle which averages a little under 40 inches of yearly precip, which while it is still a wet city, isn't nearly as wet as some parts of the pacific northwest, and those totals would mean record breaking, and leading to flash flooding.

Also, there area even some rain shadow areas that get as low as 10-20 inches yearly in the Seattle on the opposite slopes of the rainforests that average over 100, so that forecast would be even more ridiculous.

Look op the local NWS forecasts for these areas, they show plenty of rain, but nothing close to this, which would be flash flooding news of verified. The NWS in Seattle is forecasting some pretty heavy heavy totals as usual for the rainforest areas in access of several areas, but isn't showing anywhere near the amount of the rain as the WPC area, nor covering such a large swath, and specifically says no major flooding concerns appear to be a threat this week, accepts maybe some typically wetter mountain slopes. But again, those area the rainforest area, no surprise.

This is one of the reasons the WPC rain outlook is not my cup of tea.


Someone here (I think Sar) pointed out that it does well at pinpointing where the heaviest rain will fall if a widespread rain event is occurring, but it does a terrible job most of the time at predicting totals. I remember in late September when I had almost 11 inches of rain at my house in 5 days, the WPC predicted 1.25 over that period. Oops.
Love doc's exhilarating entry (thanks!) and love to see some rain in California :-)


Laughing badger (Austria), certainly at the prediction skills of groundhogs :-)
Climatology says about four to five weeks for DC metro area. Mean high over 50 and mean low over freezing qualifies as spring.. things start slowly greening/budding at this temperature.

I have many groundhogs (and stories resisting them) in my area. They are a serious pest of gardens.

Quoting tampabaymatt:


Someone here (I think Sar) pointed out that it does well at pinpointing where the heaviest rain will fall is a widespread rain event is occurring, but it does a terrible job most of the time at predicting totals. I remember in late September when I had almost 11 inches of rain at my house in 5 days, the WPC predicted 1.25 over that period. Oops.
Yes, that would be me. :-) Remember this past week when I had the bullseye for 1.83 to 2.5" right over my house? I actually got 0.54". This is pretty typical. The base prediction engine of the the WPC forecasts is the GFS. It's going to follow the areas of precipitation forecast pretty closely. As a tool to be able to get a quick look at where the GFS thinks there will be rain and, to a lesser degree, where the highest rain totals might be, the WPC maps are fine. We just don't have the ability to predict rainfall totals at the degree of resolution that would make the WPC a reliable indicator of exactly where the highest rainfall total would be. It's one of the reasons I chuckle at some people looking at the purple on the map and thinking that really means that kind of rainfall for their exact area.
68. bwi
Haven't been model watching, but looks like WPC is watching a mid-week system and a Day 7 possibility for the east.

IN THE
EAST, TWO MAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXIST. THE FIRST IS DAY 3/THU, WHEN A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
MIDWEST HELPS TO DRAW A SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HOW THESE TWO DISCREET IMPULSES
INTERACT WILL DEFINE HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLS AND
WHERE. THE NEXT EVENT BREWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US BY DAY
6/7 SUN/NEXT MON. LOW DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF A N-CENTRAL US
BASED COLD SURGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN ANOTHER PAIR OF
DISJOINTED SHORTWAVES OFFERS A SIMILAR SPREAD OF
PRECIPITATION-TYPE AND COVERAGE POSSIBILITIES.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Ruined my shoes walking to class today...

Why didn't I go to a Florida school?

RIP.
Well that didn't take long. The ECMWF 12z is just off the Delmarva Peninsula. Precip on the western side of the low looks like it's lacking until it gets up into New England. Deja-vu?
Quoting georgevandenberghe:
Climatology says about four to five weeks for DC metro area. Mean high over 50 and mean low over freezing qualifies as spring.. things start slowly greening/budding at this temperature.

I have many groundhogs (and stories resisting them) in my area. They are a serious pest of gardens.

This winter is masking it tough on my plants. The high yesterday was 65. The low tonight should be about 22. This has been going on most of the winter, with relatively warm days and far below normal freezing temperatures at night. I have bulbs coming up all over the place that then get damaged by the freezing temperatures. The warm days come again, they start growing, and then get burned again. Even my nandina, which is usually pretty tolerant of temperature swings, is looking peaked. My lawn turns partially green with a few of the warms days and then turns brown again when we get a string of freezing nights. Our average high is 59 and low is 37. In general, we've been above the average highs and much below the average lows. I really wish we could get back to somewhere near average again.
Quoting 58. wxgeek723:

Today has been awful. Two inches of snow followed by rain (with four or so inches already on the ground) has turned the whole area into a miserable, slushy snow cone. Ruined my shoes walking to class today, ended up stepping in multiple hidden puddles. Had to go to class like that. Meanwhile temperatures are dropping rapidly with the next front and everything is still wet, creating a dangerous flash freeze situation in and around NYC. I can already see the beginnings of it, the trees have a nice glaze and there is that gentle crackling sound. Pretty nerve-wracking.

Why didn't I go to a Florida school?

My sympathies.
We don't hafta wear shoes here in Fla.... and flip-flops dry pretty quickly, even in a classroom.
Quoting 58. wxgeek723:

Today has been awful. Two inches of snow followed by rain (with four or so inches already on the ground) has turned the whole area into a miserable, slushy snow cone. Ruined my shoes walking to class today, ended up stepping in multiple hidden puddles. Had to go to class like that. Meanwhile temperatures are dropping rapidly with the next front and everything is still wet, creating a dangerous flash freeze situation in and around NYC. I can already see the beginnings of it, the trees have a nice glaze and there is that gentle crackling sound. Pretty nerve-wracking.

Why didn't I go to a Florida school?


We picked up an inch of snow last night, and now it's gone due to all of the rain. Millersville has already called off evening classes (woohoo!, no chem lecture!) as it is supposed to be 26 by 5, and they can't put salt on the roads (it'll wash off).
Quoting sar2401:
This winter is masking it tough on my plants. The high yesterday was 65. The low tonight should be about 22. This has been going on most of the winter, with relatively warm days and far below normal freezing temperatures at night. I have bulbs coming up all over the place that then get damaged by the freezing temperatures. The warm days come again, they start growing, and then get burned again. Even my nandina, which is usually pretty tolerant of temperature swings, is looking peaked. My lawn turns partially green with a few of the warms days and then turns brown again when we get a string of freezing nights. Our average high is 59 and low is 37. In general, we've been above the average highs and much below the average lows. I really wish we could get back to somewhere near average again.


I have a friend in Denver. One day it's 70 degrees and the next day its snowing. They have such extreme changes in weather from day to day.
Not only was this storm the 3rd largest on record for Detroit, but it also puts February into the top-20 snowiest Februaries. The 16.7" makes February the 17th snowiest on record, even though February is only about 36 hours in. The snowiest February is 38.4", so this February is 21.7" away from that total. The snowiest month of all-time, January 2014, is 39.1" and Detroit is 22.4" away from that for February 2015. This is also the first time since records began in 1948 that Detroit has had two years in a row record a 12" snow depth. The depth today is 18" and the maximum depth last winter was 20". A clipper tomorrow night could bring a couple inches to the Detroit area, adding to the monthly total. This winter storm was definitely the best I've experienced in my young life, A grade. Measured 12-14" IMBY and had significant blowing/drifting of the snow. Definitely beat the GHD 2011 Blizzard which only brought 9" of snow to me. Schools and universities, including the University of Michigan, are closed today due to the storm.
This winter is masking it tough on my plants. The high yesterday was 65. The low tonight should be about 22.


last spring i had a snapdragon plant spring up in the ground where the summer before i had a pot of snapdragons that during the summer i moved....i never watered the plant...nor did anything..and the darn thing survived our scorched and dry summer...and is still blooming during winter...despite cold and even snow....
Quoting 71. sar2401:

This winter is masking it tough on my plants. The high yesterday was 65. The low tonight should be about 22. This has been going on most of the winter, with relatively warm days and far below normal freezing temperatures at night. I have bulbs coming up all over the place that then get damaged by the freezing temperatures. The warm days come again, they start growing, and then get burned again. Even my nandina, which is usually pretty tolerant of temperature swings, is looking peaked. My lawn turns partially green with a few of the warms days and then turns brown again when we get a string of freezing nights. Our average high is 59 and low is 37. In general, we've been above the average highs and much below the average lows. I really wish we could get back to somewhere near average again.


Spring bulbs normally send up shoots before the end of winter in the DC area and these can tolerate our midwinter temperatures in the single digits to teens. I've never seen spring bulbs in the ground or their shoots damaged by winter or spring weather. Potted ones are more vulnerable, hyacinths in particular should not be exposed to temperatures below 20F in pots. THe bulbs will be killed at this temperature even when dormant. But in the ground, a few inches down they are hardy to Zone 5.
Quoting aquak9:


Flip flops or slip ons, some shorts, and a few T shirts and you're set.
No need for a closet full of jackets, sweaters, gloves, hats, etc.
Quoting Drakoen:
Well that didn't take long. The ECMWF 12z is just off the Delmarva Peninsula. Precip on the western side of the low looks like it's lacking until it gets up into New England. Deja-vu?
Given the persistent ridge over the Rockies and that fact the northern and southern streams haven't phased once so far, aren't we going to see pretty much the same pattern of rain down here with cold air arriving too late, mostly rain with occasional snow in your area, a colder mix in the coastal area north to NYC, and heavy snow in New England over and over again until we see a major pattern change? It seems like we're literally stuck in Groundhog Day, the movie.
Quoting 58. wxgeek723:

Today has been awful. Two inches of snow followed by rain (with four or so inches already on the ground) has turned the whole area into a miserable, slushy snow cone. Ruined my shoes walking to class today, ended up stepping in multiple hidden puddles. Had to go to class like that. Meanwhile temperatures are dropping rapidly with the next front and everything is still wet, creating a dangerous flash freeze situation in and around NYC. I can already see the beginnings of it, the trees have a nice glaze and there is that gentle crackling sound. Pretty nerve-wracking.

Why didn't I go to a Florida school?




The thousand days of August in FL will perhaps answer this question.
My first summer at FSU was great until the middle of July when I suddenly felt "okay why isn't this DONE!!"
Looking at the current winter mosaic loops for the NE and snow continues to slide into Eastern NY and moving on into Hartford, Boston, and on up into New Hampshire, VT, and Maine.

Heavy snow forecast from Ohio Valley to New England

A storm system moving across the eastern U.S. is expected to bring heavy snow to parts of the eastern U.S. on Monday, from the Ohio Valley to New England. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for much of the Northeast, where some areas could see as much as 6-12 inches of snow.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Not only was this storm the 3rd largest on record for Detroit, but it also puts February into the top-20 snowiest Februaries. The 16.7" makes February the 17th snowiest on record, even though February is only about 36 hours in. The snowiest February is 38.4", so this February is 21.7" away from that total. The snowiest month of all-time, January 2014, is 39.1" and Detroit is 22.4" away from that for February 2015. This is also the first time since records began in 1948 that Detroit has had two years in a row record a 12" snow depth. The depth today is 18" and the maximum depth last winter was 20". A clipper tomorrow night could bring a couple inches to the Detroit area, adding to the monthly total. This winter storm was definitely the best I've experienced in my young life, A grade. Measured 12-14" IMBY and had significant blowing/drifting of the snow. Definitely beat the GHD 2011 Blizzard which only brought 9" of snow to me. Schools and universities, including the University of Michigan, are closed today due to the storm.
Detroit has only had snow records since 1948?
Quoting 79. sar2401:

Given the persistent ridge over the Rockies and that fact the northern and southern streams haven't phased once so far, aren't we going to see pretty much the same pattern of rain down here with cold air arriving too late, mostly rain with occasional snow in your area, a colder mix in the coastal area north to NYC, and heavy snow in New England over and over again until we see a major pattern change? It seems like we're literally stuck in Groundhog Day, the movie.


Cold air looks present but it looks like we get caught in a dry slot as the two streams phase. The good news is it's still 78 hours away so we know it won't happen as modeled. Each successive run of the ECMWF has shown more phase potential between the northern and southern stream. Dramatic differences between the GFS and ECMWF though.
Quoting 75. wxchaser97:

Not only was this storm the 3rd largest on record for Detroit, but it also puts February into the top-20 snowiest Februaries. The 16.7" makes February the 17th snowiest on record, even though February is only about 36 hours in. The snowiest February is 38.4", so this February is 21.7" away from that total. The snowiest month of all-time, January 2014, is 39.1" and Detroit is 22.4" away from that for February 2015. This is also the first time since records began in 1948 that Detroit has had two years in a row record a 12" snow depth. The depth today is 18" and the maximum depth last winter was 20". A clipper tomorrow night could bring a couple inches to the Detroit area, adding to the monthly total. This winter storm was definitely the best I've experienced in my young life, A grade. Measured 12-14" IMBY and had significant blowing/drifting of the snow. Definitely beat the GHD 2011 Blizzard which only brought 9" of snow to me. Schools and universities, including the University of Michigan, are closed today due to the storm.
It amazes me how small the largest snow storms are in some stereotypically snowy Midwestern Cities, Chicago is only 23, Detroits 3rd is only 17.
Boston, Worcester, Hartford, New York, Philly, and Baltimore all have storms with >24inches.
Quoting 76. ricderr:

This winter is masking it tough on my plants. The high yesterday was 65. The low tonight should be about 22.


last spring i had a snapdragon plant spring up in the ground where the summer before i had a pot of snapdragons that during the summer i moved....i never watered the plant...nor did anything..and the darn thing survived our scorched and dry summer...and is still blooming during winter...despite cold and even snow....


Snapdragons often survive DC winters. Summers are tough on them.
Quoting 84. Methurricanes:

It amazes me how small the largest snow storms are in some stereotypically snowy Midwestern Cities, Chicago is only 23, Detroits 3rd is only 17.
Boston, Worcester, Hartford, New York, Philly, and Baltimore all have storms with >24inches.


The East Coast is close to the Gulf Stream, a source of high moisture air to supply the huge dumps. Northern Midwest, and Northern Plains locations often have their record snows in fall or spring. Winter is too moisture starved. There is some evidence that annual snowfall totals in far northern regions will increase as the climate warms.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


About half the houses on my street are empty in the summer. They come down in October and stay until May.
Then it's back up to Michigan or where ever from June - Sept.

But saying that, I went up to northern Virginia to visit my friends in July and it was hotter (higher heat index) in Virginia than in Florida.


Really very appealing weather in Chigaco, just two letters away from appalling :-)
Ice storm here on the Jersey Shore! Very bad conditions right now. Everything covered with ice and still accumulating
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Spring bulbs normally send up shoots before the end of winter in the DC area and these can tolerate our midwinter temperatures in the single digits to teens. I've never seen spring bulbs in the ground or their shoots damaged by winter or spring weather. Potted ones are more vulnerable, hyacinths in particular should not be exposed to temperatures below 20F in pots. THe bulbs will be killed at this temperature even when dormant. But in the ground, a few inches down they are hardy to Zone 5.
I wonder if bulbs adapt themselves to "normal" temperatures after they are in the ground for a while? I have some daffodils, iris, hyacinth, and tulips that I know are over 20 years old. They get lifted and divided normally but they were here before I bought the house, and the lady who lived here was well known for her large bulb garden. The ones I've planted seem to be doing OK but these older bulbs have burned tip in their shoots. Nothing that's going to kill them but the damage is apparent. I have aloes in pots on a protected porch that have been sending up bloom spikes, with one being about four feet high before the first freeze, which made it shrivel up and fall over. It's tried to send up two more spikes and they have been killed also. The blooms have survived every other winter here. At least last year we had our coldest weather when there was snow on the ground protecting the plants. This year we've just had bitter cold and desiccating winds. I just think these southern plants aren't used to it.
Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:



About half the houses on my street are empty in the summer. They come down in October and stay until May.
Then it's back up to Michigan or where ever from June - Sept.

But saying that, I went up to northern Virginia to visit my friends in July and it was hotter (higher heat index) in Virginia than in Florida.



To me Tallahassee felt a bit hotter than FMY. Parents lived in FMY while I was in grad school at FSU.

Yeah our worst heat waves are as bad or a little worse than what TLH gets. But they don't last for months.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Ice storm here on the Jersey Shore! Very bad conditions right now. Everything covered with ice and still accumulating
I really thought an ice storm was going to be the biggest problem on the coast. Good luck. We have some terrible ice storms down here. The first thing I do is fill up all the kerosene lamps and check my battery supply. I hope your power stays on.
Lots of snow on the ground across the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Quoting 62. Methurricanes:

TWC is saying 8-12 inches for Boston on Thursday. jim Cantore will never leave.


Maybe cantore should go to D.C. so Washi can finally get her winter storm. :O)
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


To me Tallahassee felt a bit hotter than FMY. Parents lived in FMY while I was in grad school at FSU.

Yeah our worst heat waves are as bad or a little worse than what TLH gets. But they don't last for months.


There is no denying from June - Sept it's too hot and humid across Florida.
The only cool thing for weather geeks is the afternoon thunderstorms which are very impressive (lightning like crazy) and occur almost daily between (2-4 pm).
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


To me Tallahassee felt a bit hotter than FMY. Parents lived in FMY while I was in grad school at FSU.

Yeah our worst heat waves are as bad or a little worse than what TLH gets. But they don't last for months.
Our average high for July and most of August is 90 with a low of 70. The only variation we get is hot, really hot, and damned hot. Combine this with the humidity and it can be overwhelming at times. What saves us is afternoon thunderstorms. We used to get a thunderstorm about every other day, which would cool things down some and make the rest of the day tolerable, even pleasant sometimes. With the lack of tropical storms and the jet stream staying so far north over the past several years, we get thunderstorms maybe once a week and they are much more scattered, which means the chances of hitting anywhere near me is slight. We end up with almost no rain and no relief as each succeeding day gets a little hotter until we finally do get a thunderstorm. I've only been here 10 years but it seems to me summer has gotten progressively hotter, drier, and more miserable.
whats it looking like for the Appalachians ?

Quoting 94. TimTheWxMan:



Maybe cantore should go to D.C. so Washi can finally get her winter storm. :O)
Snapdragons often survive DC winters. Summers are tough on them.

ahhh...i'm not a gardener of any sorts....but i try......i've been trying to make our lawn look good...even though i live in the desert and have serious water restrictions
All these storms on the ECMWF 12z look too familiar....


Fool me once...
About 9 inches of new snow on the ground in central New Hampshire. It has been coming down since the early morning hours of an all-nighter printing superbowl apparel. The drive home was a little tricky and it is still coming down.
Going through a rough time at the moment in the NE:


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...SNOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
FLASH FREEZE BEGINNING TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD...

AT 145 PM EST...SNOW WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND WHERE THERE WAS STILL RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING FROM BOSTON TO CAPE ANN.
SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE ENTIRE
PRECIPITATION AREA BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING.

AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...A FLASH FREEZE HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS ESSEX AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED NEARLY
10 DEGREES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AT BEVERLY. THE TEMPERATURE WAS
IN THE UPPER 20S IN BOSTON WHILE JUST A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE WEST
IT WAS 9 DEGREES IN CONCORD AND LEXINGTON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...AND ON CAPE COD
LATER TONIGHT. SLUSHY CONDITIONS OR STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL
FREEZE QUICKLY MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
THE FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS.

8-12 inches of snow around the Central Illinois area southern areas with the least amount and more in to the north of Interstate 74 ..

Here in my back yard I have 10-11 inches of the very wet white stuff .. considerable drifting occurred last night when the wind picked up 25-30 mph with higher gusts .. has laid down now to just a light breeze under sunny but colder skies !!
Quoting 98. ricderr:

Snapdragons often survive DC winters. Summers are tough on them.

ahhh...i'm not a gardener of any sorts....but i try......i've been trying to make our lawn look good...even though i live in the desert and have serious water restrictions


Try Green Paint
Quoting 82. sar2401:

Detroit has only had snow records since 1948?
Snow depth records go back to 1948, though snowfall records go back to 1880.
NE still getting hit with snow, sleet and freezing temperatures.






Issued by The National Weather Service New York City, NY
Mon, Feb 2, 1:49 pm EST

SLEET... MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH 3 PM ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THROUGH THE 20S. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE EARLIER SNOW COMBINED WITH RAIN... FREEZING RAIN... AND SLEET RESULTED IN SLUSHY ROADS ACROSS METRO NEW JERSEY... NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. AS A RESULT... ALL ROADS THAT HAVE STANDING WATER OR SLUSH WILL QUICKLY BECOME ICY... MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. IN ADDITION... SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON TOP OF THE ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS.
Hardest it has snowed all winter here in Monmouth Beac, NJ. Snow flakes half dollar size, crazy!
I flew into Washington, DC last night and drove up to Maryland for work. I only had snow falling for the last eight miles. I was so lucky because when it started falling, it was almost like a white out. It was crazy. Now the sun is shining and snow is melting...of course it is supposed to happen all over again tonight. :-)
Quoting wxchaser97:
Snow depth records go back to 1948, though snowfall records go back to 1880.
How strange. Snow tables were around back then. Heck, you'd think someone would have stuck a yardstick in it. :-)
110. DCF8
[URL=http://d.justpo.st/images/2014/11/992a6811f7b2 f099e 14b99e2cf98063d.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
I went to the beach around 12.30pm today... the water was pretty cool! Around 26°C
Definitely below average rainfall in January.

Strange pattern

Quoting Drakoen:
All these storms on the ECMWF 12z look too familiar....


Fool me once...
If we can ever get the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS in some kind of reasonable agreement, then I'll start to think we may have something. I don't really understand what's happening lately. We used to get models converge as we got close to the event. Now we have at least one that's the supposed outlier but we don't really know which one it is until the event is underway.

Just to show how silly it is sometimes when the forecasters use models, this is what Birmingham said last night at 6:07 pm. The front was already in the state and moving SE. Why would you bother looking at models when you have the actual weather, radar, satellite, and synoptics already in place? How is a model ever going to give better information than current frontal movement and experience watching these kinds of fronts move through the state?

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE STATE. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS FOR TIMING...SO WENT WITH A TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND EXPECTATIONS.
Quoting DCF8:
[URL=http://d.justpo.st/images/2014/11/992a6811f7 b2 f099e 14b99e2cf98063d.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
Go to the site that has the picture. Copy the URL. Use the "Image" button above the text box you use to post a comment and then paste the link there, Click OK and then click on the "Preview comment" button to make sure it worked. It's convoluted but you get used to it. It's also a good idea to include a sentence or two about what the link is supposed to be about. Naked links are considered bad form because of the prevalence of drive-by posters dropping links to sites that contain viruses or malware.
I predict that both the Feb 6 and Feb 9th events will both be cold rain for D.C and add to our already saturated ground.Move along nothing to see here..
The ECMWF operational run and ensemble mean both show a coastal low offshore New England by Thursday into Friday. It looks like the potential exists for yet another snowstorm.

I see a lot of white flags being waved in the future.
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF operational run and ensemble mean both show a coastal low offshore New England by Thursday into Friday. It looks like the potential exists for yet another snowstorm.

I see a lot of white flags being waved in the future.
no surrender no retreat
Quoting 80. georgevandenberghe:



The thousand days of August in FL will perhaps answer this question.
My first summer at FSU was great until the middle of July when I suddenly felt "okay why isn't this DONE!!"



Maybe, I can't decide whether lack of seasonal variation is overrated or if seasonal variation is underrated.
Quoting 114. sar2401:

If we can ever get the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS in some kind of reasonable agreement, then I'll start to think we may have something. I don't really understand what's happening lately. We used to get models converge as we got close to the event. Now we have at least one that's the supposed outlier but we don't really know which one it is until the event is underway.

Just to show how silly it is sometimes when the forecasters use models, this is what Birmingham said last night at 6:07 pm. The front was already in the state and moving SE. Why would you bother looking at models when you have the actual weather, radar, satellite, and synoptics already in place? How is a model ever going to give better information than current frontal movement and experience watching these kinds of fronts move through the state?

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE STATE. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS FOR TIMING...SO WENT WITH A TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND EXPECTATIONS.


They did agree that the system that just passed was suppose to be around the VA/NC border give or take a couple miles. Look where they ended up. The shortwave moved on shore and got sampled by the RAOB network and came in strong that the models had thought.
Try Green Paint


artificial grass is very big here
Wonder what Phil's record is for just pennsylvania, no way a groundhog can know whats happening far away from him. Its a local report.
Quoting 113. CaribBoy:

Strange pattern




If that persist the CV season will be below normal and the main activity would concentrate west of 40W and mainly north of 20N but is still very early.
I already told you yesterday evening of the strong "Lodos"-storm which has hit northwestern Turkey the last days.

Here another video showing what winds did to trucks - not only one!! (Hope nobody was hurt):



Unfortunately the storm claimed five fatalities and a lot of injuries. Here are more details:

Storms kill five in Turkey as "Lodos" winds wreak havoc
Hurriyet Daily, Feb 2, 2015


Surface map for tomorrow: European mothership low "Mischka" is losing strength, and one of the secondary lows will get hold of the Western Mediterranean. "Berlin" names it as "Norbert".

Polar jet stream is still meandering very far to the south, and if my eyes serve me well, the rogue polar jet is dating the lovely subtropical jet over North Africa tomorrow. Ts ts, should be a wild romance:




Source.



Weather in my place near Frankfurt should stay calm and dry for quite a while. So yaawn, good night folks ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1000 AM PST MON FEB 2 2015

...RAIN TO RETURN TO OUR AREA STARTING THURSDAY...
...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WILL COME TO AN END STARTING
ON THURSDAY AS A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE RAIN WILL FIRST START OVER THE
NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT
SPECIFIC TIMING OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL END UP IMPACTING THE ENTIRE SAN
FRANCISCO AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.

RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL RANGES
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR NORTH BAY LOCATIONS.
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF operational run and ensemble mean both show a coastal low offshore New England by Thursday into Friday. It looks like the potential exists for yet another snowstorm.

I see a lot of white flags being waved in the future.


Same story different day.
Although cooler than they were in September, sea temps off the California coast remain higher than normal for this time of year.
129. vis0

Quoting 114. sar2401:

If we can ever get the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS in some kind of reasonable agreement, then I'll start to think we may have something. I don't really understand what's happening lately. We used to get models converge as we got close to the event. Now we have at least one that's the supposed outlier but we don't really know which one it is until the event is underway.

Just to show how silly it is sometimes when the forecasters use models, this is what Birmingham said last night at 6:07 pm. The front was already in the state and moving SE. Why would you bother looking at models when you have the actual weather, radar, satellite, and synoptics already in place? How is a model ever going to give better information than current frontal movement and experience watching these kinds of fronts move through the state?

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE STATE. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE AS FOR TIMING...SO WENT WITH A TIMING BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT AND EXPECTATIONS.
If it ain't on TV why watch? ; -P
Still trying to keep hope alive I see...

Mike Masco ABC Baltimore Meteorologist
43 mins ·
---BACK TO THAT 1978-1979 ANALOG---
Check out the January stats (how we finished for the month) at BWI which is the OFFICIAL reporting station located in northern ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. Mind you it was colder and snowier N & W.
However, for such a snow drought year many claim..Impressive to see us reporting 5.9" at BWI.
Back to the 78-79 year that January produced 5.7" and NOTHING in December. Hmm.. seems like we have not only the 78'-79' kind of cold BUT each month is matching up to that analog.
NOW WE ONLY NEED 33.1" OF SNOW FOR FEB LIKE 1979 HAD

I was young at the time and do remember the snows in February.But that was then..
its snowing big time in east haven with winds over 30 mph in east haven
Quoting 119. wxgeek723:



Maybe, I can't decide whether lack of seasonal variation is overrated or if seasonal variation is underrated.


I like the seasons and live back in the DC area where all four are well defined. I'd like winters to be a little cooler and snowier (except this year with three first year licensed drivers) and would DEFINITELY like to take a few degrees off our summers.
Quoting 127. Drakoen:



Same story different day.

Yep. It's too bad we can't get anything, but it's sure been something to see. Boston went from having a deficit of over a foot to surpassing its annual snowfall total in one week.
And CWG
January was colder than December overall on the East Coast and the latest forecast trends favor February to run colder compared to January (relative to normal). However, we don’t see sufficient blocking in the North Atlantic to guarantee a blockbuster snow month. My feeling right now is that February will deliver more snow than January and run above normal (normal: 5.7″ at National) on snow even, but not as much as last year (11.2″) given the year-on-year weaker Alaska ridging and the lack of a Greenland block. Temperatures should run below normal and precipitation overall above normal.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wonder what Phil's record is for just pennsylvania, no way a groundhog can know whats happening far away from him. Its a local report.


And Phil seeing his shadow isn't even real. One year I watched it live and with a 100% thick cloud deck, fog, and light snow falling, they said Phil saw his shadow.
Quoting 127. Drakoen:



Same story different day.
But the exact same time of the week.
Looks like precipitation is coming to an end in New York City.
What a change in pattern over the Northeast. Talk about weather whiplash. Two weeks ago in the Boston area we were looking up records for least snowy winters on record. Now we're dealing with the snowiest 10 day period in history in spots.
Quoting 131. hurricanes2018:

its snowing big time in east haven with winds over 30 mph in east haven
Eastern MA is getting pummelled by heavy snow.
and the band looks like its getting stronger.
Quoting 136. Tornado6042008X:

But the exact same time of the week.


Exactly. It seems every week we start out like this and things just go downhill.
Quoting 138. MAweatherboy1:

What a change in pattern over the Northeast. Talk about weather whiplash. Two weeks ago in the Boston area we were looking up records for least snowy winters on record. Now we're dealing with the snowiest 10 day period in history in spots.
Just (sniff) just go away! (slams door with uncontrollable sobbing in background).
Quoting 64. tampabaymatt:



Someone here (I think Sar) pointed out that it does well at pinpointing where the heaviest rain will fall if a widespread rain event is occurring, but it does a terrible job most of the time at predicting totals. I remember in late September when I had almost 11 inches of rain at my house in 5 days, the WPC predicted 1.25 over that period. Oops.


Part of that is like Sar mentioned, the WPC is based heavily on GFS precip, and global models are almost always at least a standard deviation too low in terms of precip forecast for seabreeze thunderstorms. Model resolution can't keep up with it. Unfortunately The WPC doesn't really pick up on this, it's a weakness of doing national precip forecasts, in the same way their prediction of a giant 8-12 inch rain swath in the Pacific Northwest doesn't really match reality either, and is in quite a disagreement with the local NWS office rainfall forecasts.


Also with that event you mentioned, that wasn't a localized total either, rain gauge and radar estimates showed the entire West Central Florida area had 6-12 inches of rain that week when the precip outlook was 1-2 inches.
Here is the next rain event for the West Coast, including Cali. flowing in from the Pacific riding along the Jet:



Quoting 141. washingtonian115:

Just (sniff) just go away! (slams door with uncontrollable sobbing in background).

It's probably little consolation to you mid-Atlantic snow lovers, but I do believe you guys will get at least one big storm this month. The pattern's going to be perfect for it. Even deeper into the South will stand a chance for snow.



watch out here maybe a new storm coming soon!! stop this now!! boston ready got 4 1/2 feet of snow from the last three storms!
This pattern doesn't change and many locations will run out of salt/sand by the end of February.

Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF operational run and ensemble mean both show a coastal low offshore New England by Thursday into Friday. It looks like the potential exists for yet another snowstorm.

I see a lot of white flags being waved in the future.
Quoting 145. hurricanes2018:




watch out here maybe a new storm coming soon!! stop this now!! boston ready got 4 1/2 feet of snow from the last three storms!
it will stop on march 15 right after the storm of the millennium
Thanks Doc!

I don't mind a little more winter. Yesterday was really the first big snowfall we have had this year.
Snow finally coming to an end here in Long Beach, NY. That snow band dropped 4 inches of snow in just two hours. Before that, we had hours upon hours of freezing rain which coated everything in at least 0.25 inches of ice. What a crazy weather day.
Boston still has a ways to go to break its seasonal record of 107.6"
Quoting 5. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



KOTG.
That photo/ web cam post, you posted at about 8 am this morning was of very bad snow conditions but it keeps updating and now it looks almost like a normal day?
I personally thought it was much more "striking," when everything was covered in snow and ice.
Quoting 147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will stop on march 15 right after the storm of the millennium
I like your wild imagination Keep :).
The winds have really been gusting today!
Quoting 151. PlazaRed:


KOTG.
That photo/ web cam post, you posted at about 8 am this morning was of very bad snow conditions but it keeps updating and now it looks almost like a normal day?
I personally thought it was much more "striking," when everything was covered in snow and ice.
it all came to an end just after 10 am and the clean up begins in earnest I have my property looking the same way except for one walkway that will be done in a while in on a much needed break now

temps going down to -18c tonight so it needed to be cleaned up fast tomorrow it will all be solid ice we measured in the clear area 23 cm in my area for a snow total just under a foot in the old measurement
Quoting 152. washingtonian115:

I like your wild imagination Keep :).
wild I haven't even started to go wild yet just warming up
So what of life over in sleepy old Europe tonight?
Well we have 10 foot snow depths in the north of Spain.
Howling gales forecast for tomorrow.
The river Ebro is about 6 meters (20 foot,) above normal in the Zaragoza area.
The shores of the Northern Mediterranean around the Barcelona areas are expecting very high waves and of course snow storms inland.
The north Atlantic coasts of Spain can expect very high waves and extreme windy conditions possible hurricane force.
Added to all this the volcano Etna in Sicily is on about its 33rd eruption in the last 3 years during a wild snowstorm, interesting pictures if you look them up.

Link

I suppose we might possibly have another Pompeii soon at this rate!

Needless to say in my cosy kitchen beside my portable propane gas fire, with the howling winds outside the secure window, none of this is having the slightest effect on me. At least on the surface that is.
Underlying feelings are its a bit like watching a movie except its all really happening for somebody else!
The wind is about to knock my head off! The cloud were menacing earlier this afternoon.It looks uninviting outside and I feel sorry for anyone that has to be out in it.

Here's our, or rather their picture at the moment as we are in the little bit at the base of Europe that almost touches Africa which is about 8 miles away:-



Shame visually that we haven't got an "Etna" on the horizon to make things even more interesting.
Still you cant have everything unless you are a successful Deity!
It's been a long day.


Everything is iced and small tree branches are leaning, but nothing major thankfully.

Potential Winter Storm Happy Wed. (My naming list) 1" possible.
Quoting 156. PlazaRed:
The river Ebro is about 6 meters (20 foot,) above normal in the Zaragoza area.

Umm, coming back for a post despite I already said "Good night". Thanks for posting this. As much as I try to cover European Weather, the flooding hasn't been mentioned yet on any European Weather Sites I use to visit. Here is one of many videos which show the flooding of river Ebro:


Miranda de Ebro.

Two dead as storms batter Spain
The Local, Published: 02 Feb 2015 10:16 GMT 01:00

In Europe, we are lacking a common language. It's always so laborious to get the news from so many different countries with different languages, even when a common weather event like monster trough "Mischka" hits the whole continent ...
Snow really piled up on that Wundercam in Chestnut HIll, MA.. We've lost the patio furniture & nearly the embankment behind it. If it keeps coming down nothing but snowed in will be left on that.
wow not only is water temp. way above normal offshore the east coast the gulf and the eastern carib are as well
Quoting 124. Tropicsweatherpr:



If that persist the CV season will be below normal and the main activity would concentrate west of 40W and mainly north of 20N but is still very early.


Please no not again :/
I would post this in RR's blog..but anyway here's a article with a idea to have solar panels in parking lots.The car gets the shade and the panels soak up the engery.Win win situation? Maybe..
Link
Quoting 162. Skyepony:

Snow really piled up on that Wundercam in Chestnut HIll, MA.. We've lost the patio furniture & nearly the embankment behind it. If it keeps coming down nothing but snowed in will be left on that.


Rest assured Skye, we are also monitoring the evolution of this profound and historical event very closely!
Quoting 163. islander101010:

wow not only is water temp. way above normal offshore the east coast the gulf and the eastern carib are as well


doesn't bode well for the season if conditions persist or increase in strength ..
Quoting 161. barbamz:


Umm, coming back for a post despite I already said "Good night". Thanks for posting this. As much as I try to cover European Weather, the flooding hasn't been mentioned yet on any European Weather Sites I use to visit. Here is one of many videos which show the flooding of river Ebro:


Miranda de Ebro.

Two dead as storms batter Spain
The Local, Published: 02 Feb 2015 10:16 GMT 01:00

In Europe, we are lacking a common language. It's always so laborious to get the news from so many different countries with different languages, even when a common weather event like monster trough "Mischka" hits the whole continent ...


That's Miranda del Ebro about 600 miles north of me. ( The river Ebro is a vast river which is roughly equivalent to the Mississippi in the US as it traverses almost all the country from north to south emerging into the Mediterranean near Barcelona.)
These people are experiencing their worst flooding in about 30 years.
The mud in their houses and streets from the flooding is over a foot thick in some areas of the town.
The whole of the Ebro valley is in a bad way with this flooding, mud and disaster's all over the place today.
More of this type of weather is on the way soon.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I would post this in RR's blog..but anyway here's a article with a idea to have solar panels in parking lots.The car gets the shade and the panels soak up the engery.Win win situation? Maybe..
Link






I have been saying this for many years. In fact I got a little upset when FGCU tore down a bunch of woods to build solar when all that parking area was just sitting begging to be shaded.
Quoting 163. islander101010:

wow not only is water temp. way above normal offshore the east coast the gulf and the eastern carib are as well

Is this what you are indicating is a trifle abnormal!



Looks more like springtime, except for the chills around the coasts?
Quoting 169. QueensWreath:







I have been saying this for many years. In fact I got a little upset when FGCU tore down a bunch of woods to build solar when all that parking area was just sitting begging to be shaded.
I have been thinking of installing something similar in my back yard where we park the Family van but it isn't cheap.I park the RR in front and will have to get so many permits to put it up.
Its nothing really new now the solar panels over the car parks.
Sort of an evolution.
You should not normally experience many problems with the planning as its a temporary structure with no solid foundations. a bit like a lot of modern society, you could add that line in the planning department.
I just fitted them to my house roof and told the planners that the almighty had blessed their presence, that seemed to work as they are still there on the roof unopposed 6 years later!



A Swedish household goods dealer has been doing it for quite awhile in Europe.

I cant attach the photo but here is the link to it:-

Link


here we go again
Record Report
Statement as of 04:39 PM EST on February 02, 2015
...Record daily maximum snowfall set at Bridgeport CT...

A record snowfall of 9.3 inches was set at Bridgeport CT today. This breaks the old record of 3.2 set in 1985.
177. 882MB
Looks like our next tropical cyclone is in the making in the SW Indian Ocean. Models are developing this system into a pretty decent storm in the Mozambique channel, between Madagascar and Africa. What an active season it has been in this area.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wonder what Phil's record is for just pennsylvania, no way a groundhog can know whats happening far away from him. Its a local report.

It must have been the TV floodlights that cast the shadow. I thought Pennsylvania was supposed to be getting hit with snow & a wintry mix this morning. Maybe everywhere except Punxsutawney.

If the stupid rodent sees his shadow, there will be six more long, cold, hard weeks of winter. If he doesn't see his shadow, spring is just a month and a half away.
This is almost a strange as the disappearance of the ice!
Where have the 2 posts from PC Doug gone that were there only 2 minutes ago?
Posts 173, and 174?
Surly they cant have slipped into the ether?
As of an hour ago, Lunenburg, in Worcester County, MA, had a reported 24.1" in the previous 11 hours. This location had 3 ft during the storm last week. And I believe it's still snowing there.

Source - NWS Public Information Statement
Quoting 180. LAbonbon:

As of an hour ago, Lunenburg, in Worcester County, MA, had a reported 24.1" in the previous 11 hours. This location had 3 ft during the storm last week. And I believe it's still snowing there.

Source - NWS Public Information Statement
Reminds me of when I had 5 feet of snow in the yard after the two blizzards.
Quoting 182. washingtonian115:

Reminds me of when I had 5 feet of snow in the yard after the two blizzards.

Those poor folks won't have any place to put the snow.

Washi, right now my house smells like fried food, and you are partially to blame. You and your crab cakes, and the oh-so-delicious-looking photo...got me daydreaming about them the last couple of days. Well, no crab meat on hand, but I did have canned clams in the pantry...sooo, decided to try my hand at clam fritters and corn fritters. Hadn't had either in a long, long time, and had never made either. And it's the first time in years that I've fried anything. They were so so so good. The aroma afterwards...not so much.

(Edit - typo)
Quoting 184. LAbonbon:


Those poor folks won't have any place to put the snow.

Washi, right now my house smells like fried food, and you are partially to blame. You and your clam cakes, and the oh-so-delicious-looking photo...got me daydreaming about them the last couple of days. Well, no crab meat on hand, but I did have canned clams in the pantry...sooo, decided to try my hand at clam fritters and corn fritters. Hadn't had either in a long, long time, and had never made either. And it's the first time in years that I've fried anything. They were so so so good. The aroma afterwards...not so much.
Lol sorry LAbonbon.I know that crab cake photo did look delicious that's why I posted it.Is there a Costco around your area? I know they sell the Phillips crab cake with 7 of them (expensive though)
Winter Storm Linus

A narrow stripe of freezing rain accompanied Linus earlier as warm air aloft slid over a below-freezing air mass at the surface over the New York City area, including Long Island, as well as coastal southern New England. However, now that the low-pressure system has moved east, arctic air is crashing southward into those areas, flipping precipitation back to all snow. As of 4 p.m., rain was mainly confined to Cape Cod and the islands to the south.

Otherwise, snow will dominate the remainder of this storm through Monday night. Snowfall rates could reach 3 inches per hour over Maine and possibly parts of New Hampshire and northeast Massachusetts. Increasing winds will whip the snow around, resulting in poor visibility and blowing and drifting snow in some areas.

In addition, temperatures near or below zero in Maine will make it dangerously cold for those stranded in the snowstorm. Non-emergency travel is highly discouraged.



Temperatures have already begun plummeting around Boston, and will do so in the New York City area as well this evening. This means any standing water from rain or melted ice will freeze over. This "flash freeze" brings the potential for widespread icy conditions through Tuesday's morning commute; even roads treated with salt or chemicals may be vulnerable as temperatures could reach levels too low for those treatments to be effective.
Quoting 185. washingtonian115:

Lol sorry LAbonbon.I know that crab cake photo did look delicious that's why I posted it.Is there a Costco around your area? I know they sell the Phillips crab cake with 7 of them (expensive though)

Yeah, there is one now, haven't been in it yet. Maybe I'll have to give it a try...

Or, since the fritters were a success, I might just try my hand at making crab cakes. Can't be that hard, right?

Quoting 185. washingtonian115:

Lol sorry LAbonbon.I know that crab cake photo did look delicious that's why I posted it.Is there a Costco around your area? I know they sell the Phillips crab cake with 7 of them (expensive though)

LOL - just realized I wrote clam cakes in my OP...almost made these instead of the fritters, meant to say your photo of crab cakes did me in.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** Bankers See $1 Trillion of Zombie Investments Stranded in the Oil Fields

Ukraine Gas Deadline Heightens Threat of Shrinking Stockpiles


*** A Fresh Look at the Watery Side of Earth's Climate Shows 'Unabated Planetary Warming'

Asia powers into the forefront of solar revolution

!!! DNA clock helps to get measure of people's lifespans

*** Computer chips: Engineers use disorder to control light on the nanoscale



!!! Global warming slowdown: No systematic errors in climate models, comprehensive statistical analysis reveals

RNA: The unknotted strand of life



Older adults: Double your protein to build more muscle I know this :)

*** Study supplies insight into behavior of African monsoon

To speed up magma, add water






* Deep ocean a source of dissolved iron in Central Pacific




Why is a dolphin not a cat? Repurposing non-coding elements in genome gave rise to great 'mammalian radiation'

New effort launched to connect US businesses with clean energy

* Obama 2016 budget urges states to cut emissions faster

!!! Why Christie vs. Obama on vaccines sets a dangerous precedent

New research suggests climate 'skeptics' and believers really, really don't like each other ;)

*** Yet another scientific authority calls 2014 the hottest year on record

For Mule Deer, an Incredible Journey


A New Portal to Scientific Discourse: Neil deGrasse Tyson Expands 'StarTalk' to TV

Climate Record Keeping: What is the evidence for periods of global warming in the past?


Obama's proposals: From healthy to dead on arrival

How 650 Years of Drought Killed an Ancient City in Mexico

Philanthropist Howard Buffett backs brown revolution in Africa
TWC has 54-60 hours of snow with NNE winds for eastern Mass, 5 ride Cycles, 5
Sun. Night-Tues Night Wednesday morning winds finally turn N/NNW
Thankfully this is out in oompa loompa land. Let's hope for everyone's sake that it stays there.
Quoting 193. wxgeek723:

Thankfully this is out in oompa loompa land. Let's hope for everyone's sake that it stays there.


It shows snow here; that's how you know it's bound to change.
Quoting 194. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It shows snow here; that's how you know it's bound to change.


It shows snow touching MD. That's how you know it's bound to change.
Quoting 127. Drakoen:



Same story different day.


when i first started on the blog i asked you a question. i had someone email me stating not to bug you with questions. isn't that funny? just thought i'd tell you...i wish i could remember the question :)
i have given up on a decent snow in nc. its been too warm for the most part and marginable temps when there is a storm nearby. most of the clippers have went north this winter and there hasnt been as many strong low pressure systems coming out of the gulf. the show is over imo. a strong el nino could of really helped us out.
199. OCF
From the header, concerning Chicago:

"4. 20.3 inches Jan 12-14, 1979"

I was there, and I remember it. Only to be specific, I was in Madison, WI over that weekend (Madison got about 12 inches), and I came back to Chicago the next Monday evening.

There had been a big snow - something like 12" - in Chicago around New Years, and then it got cold and stayed cold, so there was no melting to help with the snow removal. In those days I was commuting between Madison and Chicago on a weekly basis. I traveled from Chicago to Madison on Thursday the 11th, and it was probably something like 15° when I left Chicago. I was having trouble staying warm waiting for a city bus in Madison, and then when I passed a time-temperature sign in downtown I saw that it read -5°. I commented on that when I got where I was going and was told, "Oh, it's that warm? It was -28° this morning." After the snow it hit -28° again in Madison. Then on Monday the 15th (or maybe it was Tuesday), there was another storm and another 5 inches or so, without the temperature even getting up to 0°F in Madison, which just didn't seem fair.

But Chicago, getting that 20 inches on top of the inadequately cleared New Years storm - the city mostly stopped functioning. El lines were closed. Streets went unplowed. At least one plow truck driver went berserk and started doing the monster truck thing to the parked cars. Everything was a mess.

For all of that, the voters blamed Mayor Bilandic, and he went down to defeat on a nice spring day a few months later.
Quoting 198. robert88:

i have given up on a decent snow in nc. its been too warm for the most part and marginable temps when there is a storm nearby. most of the clippers have went north this winter and there hasnt been as many strong low pressure systems coming out of the gulf. the show is over imo. a strong el nino could of really helped us out.


well on feb 12th last year in eastern nc we got a 2 day total of 14 inches here east of Fayetteville, nc so im not giving up yet. and 6 inches the weak before that, and another 2 inch event the week after the 12th. it had to be the most snow ive ever seen in my part of N.C. in the 29 years ive been here.


Be jealous ;)
TWC has been very impressive, they got the NYC forecast very close for the New England Blizzard of 2015, and correctly pinpointed an 18-24 bubble North and West of Boston proper when the NWS said 10-14 inches across all of Massachusetts.
Kudos to them.
Quoting 201. Jedkins01:



Be jealous ;)


Friend of mine just sent me that. I sent her a picture of Hurricane Andrew.
Does the groundhog of Sun Prairie Wisconsin need such a big stretch limo?


Looking good for the prospects of a BIG storm off the SE Coast. How this impacts FL to NC is still unknown though. This feature looks to be next Monday.



Jed:
Quoting 203. wxgeek723:



Friend of mine just sent me that. I sent her a picture of Hurricane Andrew.


But devastating cyclones only make up a small fraction of the total number of them, and the inner core and max surge areas don't hit everywhere as well. Most people can spend their whole lives growing up in Florida without seeing direct hits from violent hurricanes and their destruction. Sure hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds, lower surge amounts, flooding rains, lightning and tornadoes are still common here, but such is the case in many places throughout the world.

The difference is, winter kicks the butt of everyone, every year up north, most of the time tropical weather is just fun, and only occasionally is devastating

Let's not forget that life as whole is fragile, I'd rather enjoy the weather here than fear a major hurricane strike. I'm more likely to die from a car accident and lose my home and friends/family by some other means.
Here is the BIG storm that the Euro picks up on, on the GFS. This could cut off over FL on the next GFS run as pattern would suggest blocking so well see.


There's a version of the groundhog biting mayor set to 'The Inauguration' by Bun-B. Scott would like that.
Quoting 206. wxgeek723:

Jed:



LOL

Everything here is pretty true accept the fire one, we always get brush fires that burn off dead tropical brush in the winter and spring but most fires here are pretty tame compared to other places, they mainly burn under brush, not whole forests.


They need to add a drug addict, bees, and banana spiders to that list, lol. I've never seen so many darn yellow jackets or bee hives anywhere else. We have entire companies that are dedicated just for hive removal.

Back home at my parents house, some neighbors of ours had 5 flippin bee haves removed from the house a few months ago.
Here's the Japanese model another good example to my point above.


Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:




NWS predictions are higher than the WPC, interesting, last time this was the case too a bit over week ago and the higher NWS totals from Ruskin verified.
More southern doom. What's the record for the most model-generated snowstorms in a Florida winter?

Quoting 213. Jedkins01:


NWS predictions are higher than the WPC, interesting, last time this was the case too a bit over week ago and the higher NWS totals from Ruskin verified.


Reason is because the GFS along with all the short range models show a swath of the heaviest rainfall totals across C FL as opposed to N FL. HPC favors the Euro which is further north with all its precip.
15.9" at Boston/Logan and 17.0" at Worcester. Not bad for an also-ran snowstorm
Quoting 210. BaltimoreBrian:

There's a version of the groundhog biting mayor set to 'The Inauguration' by Bun-B. Scott would like that.


What is Bun-B?
Quoting 214. BaltimoreBrian:
More southern doom. What's the record for the most model-generated snowstorms in a Florida winter?



It's like the GFS in May showing hurricanes hitting FL every run on day 16.

Quoting 217. Jedkins01:

What is Bun-B?
A profane rapper.
218 comments and not 1 Groundhog recipe?

Geesh, y'all be slippin'....


Here you go Jed. This is why the NWS disagrees with the HPC.

Just updated 0Z GFS.

Quoting 204. BaltimoreBrian:

Does the groundhog of Sun Prairie Wisconsin need such a big stretch limo?





Is He a Republican?

: P
Quoting 219. BaltimoreBrian:
A profane rapper.


For whatever reason I have Makaveli ringing in my head.

Link
Quoting 222. Patrap:


Is He a Republican?

: P


Rick Scott.
Quoting 211. Jedkins01:



LOL

Everything here is pretty true accept the fire one, we always get brush fires that burn off dead tropical brush in the winter and spring but most fires here are pretty tame compared to other places, they mainly burn under brush, not whole forests.


They need to add a drug addict, bees, and banana spiders to that list, lol.


Dangers of Florida

On second thought, I think I'll shred that FSU transfer application. One huge plus about winter is that it really tames our wildlife up here. I don't so much mind the snow and cold; I think people in the Northeast just whine because it's that much more misery on top of taxes, traffic, etc. Today was just slushy which is absolute crap. Cold builds character though.

Still, I must see a Tampa lightning storm.
Quoting 225. wxgeek723:


Dangers of Florida

On second thought, I think I'll shred that FSU transfer application. One huge plus about winter is that it really tames our wildlife up here. I don't so much mind the snow and cold; I think people in the Northeast just whine because it's just that much more misery on top of taxes, traffic, etc.

Still, I must see a Tampa lightning storm.


It's about that time of year as May is just right around the corner which is the start of our Thunderstorm Season everyday for 6 months straight.

City of New Orleans activates freeze plan
Posted: Feb 02, 2015 3:00 PM CST


NEW ORLEANS, LA (WVUE) -

The City of New Orleans is activating its Citywide Freeze Plan overnight on Monday, (Feb. 2) as the National Weather Service forecasts the temperature or wind chill to fall below the plan's activation threshold of 35 degrees.

The city's freeze plan will be in effect to provide temporary shelter for homeless residents. Residents are also encouraged to seek appropriate shelter, and residents are urged to bring in their pets and check on neighbors and the elderly to ensure they are prepared.

Anyone needing shelter will be accepted at the following locations under the following conditions:

The Salvation Army, 4530 South Claiborne Ave. - will accept males and females beginning at 4 p.m.

Ozanam Inn, 843 Camp Street - will accept males only beginning at 4 p.m.

Covenant House, 611 North Rampart Street - will accept males and females ages 16-21, their dependent children, and any female with dependent minor children. Mothers with small children may come any time.

New Orleans Mission, 1130 Oretha Castle Haley Blvd. - will only accept male or female adults beginning at 4 p.m.
Quoting 227. Patrap:

City of New Orleans activates freeze plan
Posted: Feb 02, 2015 3:00 PM CST


NEW ORLEANS, LA (WVUE) -

The City of New Orleans is activating its Citywide Freeze Plan overnight on Monday, (Feb. 2) as the National Weather Service forecasts the temperature or wind chill to fall below the plan's activation threshold of 35 degrees.

The city's freeze plan will be in effect to provide temporary shelter for homeless residents. Residents are also encouraged to seek appropriate shelter, and residents are urged to bring in their pets and check on neighbors and the elderly to ensure they are prepared.

Anyone needing shelter will be accepted at the following locations under the following conditions:

The Salvation Army, 4530 South Claiborne Ave. - will accept males and females beginning at 4 p.m.

Ozanam Inn, 843 Camp Street - will accept males only beginning at 4 p.m.

Covenant House, 611 North Rampart Street - will accept males and females ages 16-21, their dependent children, and any female with dependent minor children. Mothers with small children may come any time.

New Orleans Mission, 1130 Oretha Castle Haley Blvd. - will only accept male or female adults beginning at 4 p.m.


Great people in New Orleans. Was there in July and stayed at the Sheraton for a week near the French Quarter.
Portlight's Hampton Roads Getting It Right Workshop

February 24th and 25th

Portlight Strategies, Inc. and the Hampton Roads Regional Catastrophic Planning Team present the Getting It Right Workshop. This workshop will provide tools to facilitate full integration and inclusion in all aspects of emergency preparedness and response. We will also help you understand how to be in full compliance to avoid litigation.

The speakers include representatives from FEMA, the American Red Cross, disability stakeholder organizations, and those involved in the recent litigation of the Brooklyn Center for Independence of the Disabled v. City of New York.




The workshop is free to attend and will include lunch, snacks and all workshop materials.

Rooms are available at the Marriott at a discounted rate. Ask for the Getting It Right Workshop group block.

Call 866-329-1758 to make a reservation.
It's this very strong Ridge over the SW US that could cause a system to cut off over FL Next Monday. Very strange pattern moving in and this could set up an interesting system off the SE US.

Quoting 219. BaltimoreBrian:

A profane rapper.



Oh ok, lol, I'm completely ignorant of the hip hop world, so that explains a lot, lol.
I can hear Californians cheering from here.

Quoting 226. StormTrackerScott:



It's about that time of year as May is just right around the corner which is the start of our Thunderstorm Season everyday for 6 months straight.


That's one of the best parts of living here. It would be hard adjusting to a place where daily thunderstorms aren't routine for half the year.
Quoting 225. wxgeek723:



Dangers of Florida

On second thought, I think I'll shred that FSU transfer application. One huge plus about winter is that it really tames our wildlife up here. I don't so much mind the snow and cold; I think people in the Northeast just whine because it's that much more misery on top of taxes, traffic, etc. Today was just slushy which is absolute crap. Cold builds character though.

Still, I must see a Tampa lightning storm.


Yeah man even up here in North Florida, the lightning is noticeably less exciting. I remember having a severe thunderstorm in Michigan there in summer once, and while it was a formidable storm and had an amazing gust front and impressive wind gusts and hail, I was highly unimpressed with the lightning and the rain intensity, it wasn't nearly as fun as the lightning and rain intensity with strong sea breeze thunderstorms in the Tampa Bay area.

Sometimes the lightning can get downright scary though, some of the very worst I've seen growing up in Tampa Bay seemed like gods were going to war in the clouds, like unnaturally violent and frequent strikes to where you can here stuff getting hit, power flashes, car alarms going off and such, lol.

Severe weather damage from lightning is usually a bigger threat than wind gusts and hail, since usually 60 mph wind gusts don't do that much damage around the area from thunderstorms because tropical storm force gusts at similar speeds occur more widespread for a longer duration often enough to weed out the weaker trees and electric lines. Also hail that's large enough to cause damage isn't very common either. The biggest death/injury threat is definitely lightning.
Quoting 231. Jedkins01:




Oh ok, lol, I'm completely ignorant of the hip hop world, so that explains a lot, lol.

It's alright, I still don't understand the difference between different genres of music lol. All I need is Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, Blake Shelton, etc.
Quoting 232. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I can hear Californians cheering from here.




Mudslides galore though
Quoting 232. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I can hear Californians cheering from here.



Well, ...sort of. Lots of rain; should help fill some reservoirs in NorCal, but little snow in the mountains. in fact some of the existing snow will be rained into oblivion. Fortunately, the bulk of the rain should avoid the two huge burn areas from the last couple years (Rim Fire and King Fire).

West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Special Statement
Statement as of 3:31 PM PST on February 02, 2015
An atmospheric river (a plume of concentrated moisture) is taking aim for the Pacific northwest and northern California with wetter weather impacting our region Thursday through Monday. Snow levels will start around 7000 ft elevation, near Sierra pass levels, on Thursday and then rise higher over the weekend so this pattern will not cause a significant improvement to snow pack. Models are still variable in terms of exact precipitation amounts, but it should be a decent rain event for much of norcal. Confidence is highest for heavy rainfall occurring north of Interstate 80. Rainfall amounts along the southern portion of the storm, south of Interstate 80, could change significantly based on storm track. We will continue to update as the storm gets closer and confidence improves.

Impacts:

* localized Urban and Small Stream flooding * limited Road problems as snow levels will likely be at or above Sierra pass levels * occasional power outages from breezy to gusty southerly winds * potential for debris flows near wildfire burn scars

Timing and strength:

* precipitation expected Thursday for northwest CA and will spread east and southward by Friday with most of the valley measuring 1-4 inches and 4-10 inches across foothills and mountains * heaviest precipitation expected Friday * strongest winds expected on Friday with valley gusts up to 45 mph and higher gusts across the mountains

Jbb
Quoting Jedkins01:


That's one of the best parts of living here. It would be hard adjusting to a place where daily thunderstorms aren't routine for half the year.


A lot of people seem to hate it, frankly I think it's the best part of summer here in Tampa. There are days when you can just tell it's going to be an insane afternoon before anything even begins to pop up.
Quoting 238. CybrTeddy:



A lot of people seem to hate it, frankly I think it's the best part of summer here in Tampa. There are days when you can just tell it's going to be an insane afternoon before anything even begins to pop up.


Well, they leave the miserable climes in their home state wanting to experience the Sunshine State. Little do they know...
It's a good thing this is 300 hours out.


Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's a good thing this is 300 hours out.





Speak for yourself. If the longwave was a little farther west in that second picture, I might actually stand a nonzero chance of getting snow out of that pattern.
I was living north of Chicago (Libertyville) at the same time. Was snowed in for 2 days. Left for Florida on the third day. Had enough of that crap!



Quoting OCF:
From the header, concerning Chicago:

"4. 20.3 inches Jan 12-14, 1979"

I was there, and I remember it. Only to be specific, I was in Madison, WI over that weekend (Madison got about 12 inches), and I came back to Chicago the next Monday evening.

There had been a big snow - something like 12" - in Chicago around New Years, and then it got cold and stayed cold, so there was no melting to help with the snow removal. In those days I was commuting between Madison and Chicago on a weekly basis. I traveled from Chicago to Madison on Thursday the 11th, and it was probably something like 15° when I left Chicago. I was having trouble staying warm waiting for a city bus in Madison, and then when I passed a time-temperature sign in downtown I saw that it read -5°. I commented on that when I got where I was going and was told, "Oh, it's that warm? It was -28° this morning." After the snow it hit -28° again in Madison. Then on Monday the 15th (or maybe it was Tuesday), there was another storm and another 5 inches or so, without the temperature even getting up to 0°F in Madison, which just didn't seem fair.

But Chicago, getting that 20 inches on top of the inadequately cleared New Years storm - the city mostly stopped functioning. El lines were closed. Streets went unplowed. At least one plow truck driver went berserk and started doing the monster truck thing to the parked cars. Everything was a mess.

For all of that, the voters blamed Mayor Bilandic, and he went down to defeat on a nice spring day a few months later.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLA (09F)
19:00 PM NZDT February 3 2015
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ola (995 hPa) located at 27.9S 162.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in the sector from east through south to northwest
45 NM from the center in the sector from northwest through northeast to east
Has anyone checked how accurate Punxsutawney Phil's forecasts are for Punxsutawney (using the entire continental US doesn't seem fair to me)?
How much of this is hype and how much is legit: www.spacedaily.com/reports/Spire_unveils_shoebox_s ized_satellite_to_make_weather_predictable_to_navi gate_999.html
There should not be a space in "navigate" in my previous entry. Nonexistent spaces have appeared in my entries before. Why does this happen and how can I prevent it???
Brief good morning hello with more European wild weather:


02.02.2015: Two people are killed and hundreds of residents have been evacuated as Bulgaria and Albania are hit with heavy rains, bringing severe flooding to Southern Europe.



Current SYNOPSIS from Estofex, valid: Tue 03 Feb 2015 06:00 to Wed 04 Feb 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Mon 02 Feb 2015 23:29:
Centered around an upper-level low over the southern Baltic Sea, a huge upper-level trough covers almost entire Europe. A series of short-wave troughs pivot around it and spark numerous, mostly small surfaces cyclones.
The bulk of convective activity will be tied to a ribbon of deepening surface lows which extend from the Celtic Sea across the Bay of Biscay and Spain into the western and central Mediterranean region. By the end of the forecast period, the dominant surface cyclone will emerge over Corsica and north-central Italy. The minimum pressure forecasts range from 984 to 994 hPa, with the latest Mon 12 UTC runs uniformly showing a more benign scenario.
Warm air advection from the southwest overspreads Italy and the Balkans ahead of this low. Otherwise, polar air has flooded the entire European continent and surrounding sea waters.
Quoting gippgig:
There should not be a space in "navigate" in my previous entry. Nonexistent spaces have appeared in my entries before. Why does this happen and how can I prevent it???
You can prevent it by using the "Link" button above the comment box and pasting your link there. That will produce a clickable link and you don't have the space issue. It's also a courtesy to other users since they don't have to copy and paste your link.
Quoting barbamz:
Brief good morning hello with more European wild weather:


02.02.2015: Two people are killed and hundreds of residents have been evacuated as Bulgaria and Albania are hit with heavy rains, bringing severe flooding to Southern Europe.



Current SYNOPSIS from Estofex, valid: Tue 03 Feb 2015 06:00 to Wed 04 Feb 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Mon 02 Feb 2015 23:29:
Centered around an upper-level low over the southern Baltic Sea, a huge upper-level trough covers almost entire Europe. A series of short-wave troughs pivot around it and spark numerous, mostly small surfaces cyclones.
The bulk of convective activity will be tied to a ribbon of deepening surface lows which extend from the Celtic Sea across the Bay of Biscay and Spain into the western and central Mediterranean region. By the end of the forecast period, the dominant surface cyclone will emerge over Corsica and north-central Italy. The minimum pressure forecasts range from 984 to 994 hPa, with the latest Mon 12 UTC runs uniformly showing a more benign scenario.
Warm air advection from the southwest overspreads Italy and the Balkans ahead of this low. Otherwise, polar air has flooded the entire European continent and surrounding sea waters.
Rats! hit the wrong button. Anyway, good morning Barb. Poor Balkans get it again. I was thinking the other day about this. We in the West never heard about any kind of weather caused disaster from the Soviet bloc countries. Most of the Balkan countries were part of the Soviet bloc since about 1946. I'm wondering if we are just hearing about this more now with the increase in personal freedom and the rise in social media since the years of the fall of the Soviet Union? Just a thought from freezing Alabama, where the temperature is currently 26.
Zimbabwe: One Person Missing After Flash Floods
The Herald, 3 February 2015
One person is missing while several others were rescued from inside and on top of their vehicles following floods caused by heavy rains that pounded Harare on Sunday, police said yesterday.
Other people were marooned at different points of the capital and were forced to wait for many hours for the water to subside.
This came as the Meteorological Services Department warned yesterday that a tropical cyclone was expected to hit the country starting Friday, resulting in more rains and increased risk of flooding "almost anywhere across the country". ...


Death toll in Mozambique floods rises to 159
03 February 2015 02:32
Baku-APA. Floods that have ravaged northern and central parts of Mozambique have killed 159 people and affected nearly 160,000, a new report showed Monday amid fears that fresh rains could wreak more havoc in the coming days, APA reports quoting AFP. ...
Quoting 189. TimTheWxMan:



What did he get banned for?


I reposted the comment that I got banned for yesterday on my own blog.
It was so mild as to be laughable.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:


This is exactly what I posted to get banned yesterday.

Joke removed

You and I don't always agree but I thought that was just funny. I guess they can ban me too if they want for replying but, if that's what did it, someone needs to develop a sense of humor

EDIT: I removed your joke from my reply since you removed it from your post. People really should go to your blog and see if they think it deserved a ban. Crazy...
very cold here this morning only 5F IN east haven this morning
Quoting tampabaymatt:
I hope that the forecast is correct for California and the Northwest. 15 inches isn't likely but at least it looks like a good storm coming in. For the SE, you'll also notice the WPC is doing for us. It seems when the models aren't sure of where precipitation might center, they show it all offshore in the Gulf. Watch it over the next several days and see if the amounts don't shift north and diminish.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Speak for yourself. If the longwave was a little farther west in that second picture, I might actually stand a nonzero chance of getting snow out of that pattern.
The GFS has developed these cold air intrusions down here for months. Sometimes it's been right, like today, but more often it's been wrong. Even when they've been right, it hasn't really mattered for us in terms of snow. The cold dry air gets here long after the moisture has left, just like today. I'm hoping we might see a northern/southern stream phase before winter's gone but I'm not hopeful. I'm just sick of all the freezing weather. My power bill trying to keep the house and greenhouse warm is going to be astronomical.
Latest WRF has a swath of 2" to 3.5" of rain from just north of Tampa to across Orlando then over to Cape Canaveral. Models has been excellent lately. I suspect this model is correct and that well get a solid to 2" to 3" of rain across my area.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
More southern doom. What's the record for the most model-generated snowstorms in a Florida winter?

This winter takes the cake. I don't even mention the prospect of snow to anyone outside the blog. I look like an idiot after so many failed forecasts.
I appreciate the support SAR.
This blog does exhibit a severe lack of a sense of humor at times.
This is from the article Brian posted regarding a global warming slowdown from ScienceDaily. Given that these scientists acknowledge that the warming of the earth's surface has been less than the models predicted, why have we had all this back and forth argument? There's no doubt that the models didn't predict the rate of change correctly in the short run, but that's like having a forecast of a high of 102 and we only get to 99. It's still hot, and getting hotter. It's possible to acknowledge reality without pretending that the climate change models are all wrong. No model is going to get it all 100% right but it doesn't change the undeniable long term trends.

"Skeptics who still doubt anthropogenic climate change have now been stripped of one of their last-ditch arguments: It is true that there has been a warming hiatus and that the surface of Earth has warmed up much less rapidly since the turn of the millennium than all the relevant climate models had predicted." Link
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I appreciate the support SAR.
This blog does exhibit a sever lack of a sense of humor at times.
I'm not a big fan of banning unless it's for outright trolling or something that's clearly outside the bounds of what's allowed here. I thought your joke was a very mild jab at climate change. If we get to the point where we can't allow something like that I'll find some other place to waste my time. :-)
Quoting tampabaymatt:


.01" yesterday here
.00 in Naples

It really looked liked we were going to get something yesterday but it just fizzled out.
This has been the same pattern all winter with the heaviest precip focusing from Tampa to Cape Canaveral.

Sub surface warm pool continues to grow stronger with now 3C's reappearing for the first time in months. ESPI is at -0.01 which is an incredible rise from the -.84 just 2 weeks back. SOI last 30 days is at -9.4 so we are at El-Nino levels in just about every category and if this keeps up then the CPC could officially declare El-Nino over the coming weeks as the atmosphere now seems to be clicking in El-Nino levels. ONI is 0.7

the water hasnt rose last 30 yrs here in e c florida what about where you live?
Quoting islander101010:
the water hasnt rose last 30 yrs here in e c florida what about where you live?


It's gone up but it's so small you just don't notice it. I have a friend that has lived on the inter-coastal waterway directly off the Gulf of Mexico since the 1980s. I haven't noticed any change in the water level (normal daily tides) in 30 years.

You also need to take into account if the area is experiencing any erosion, subsidence, or deposition. That will affect the sea level.

But here's the link to NOAA's sea level trend page. Also, nothing stays the same so these trends can change over time, which is the fear of many who support GW/CC.
Link
Quoting 259. sar2401:

This is from the article Brian posted regarding a global warming slowdown from ScienceDaily. Given that these scientists acknowledge that the warming of the earth's surface has been less than the models predicted, why have we had all this back and forth argument? There's no doubt that the models didn't predict the rate of change correctly in the short run, but that's like having a forecast of a high of 102 and we only get to 99. It's still hot, and getting hotter. It's possible to acknowledge reality without pretending that the climate change models are all wrong. No model is going to get it all 100% right but it doesn't change the undeniable long term trends.

"Skeptics who still doubt anthropogenic climate change have now been stripped of one of their last-ditch arguments: It is true that there has been a warming hiatus and that the surface of Earth has warmed up much less rapidly since the turn of the millennium than all the relevant climate models had predicted." Link


Less than the models predicted for surface warmth has still been within the margin of error. A short deviation from the center of the model range is not some weird cause for alarm, especially considering how the models actually work. For example the CIMP5 model series actually contain no observed forcing data after 2005. The different forcing scenarios begin there, and many fail to catch the increased heat uptake by the ocean or the slow down in surface warming, however, that doesn't mean much in the short term as the CIMP models have been shown to very accurate over the long term, which is the goal of these things anyways. They aren't trying to predict a given global temperature on a given date, they are trying to match the long term trend as closely as possible in order to provide a range of projected warming in the future. In fact, when the models are correctly in relative time with oceanic events like La Ninas and El Ninos, they preform exceptionally well. Does this show a short coming in the models, probably not.

Notice that this context is always left out by those decrying the models as inaccurate and those simply claiming global warming isn't actually happening.
Quoting 261. Sfloridacat5:



.01" yesterday here
.00 in Naples

It really looked liked we were going to get something yesterday but it just fizzled out.


I had 0.08". Most of the Tampa area had around a quarter inch though.
Quoting 260. sar2401:

I'm not a big fan of banning unless it's for outright trolling or something that's clearly outside the bounds of what's allowed here. I thought your joke was a very mild jab at climate change. If we get to the point where we can't allow something like that I'll find some other place to waste my time. :-)


Moderating on this blog is terribly inconsistent. The mods need to realize their job is to be objective, and do pretty much as you described. If someone really got banned for making a climate change joke, that's just ridiculous.
Hopefully it is colder than anticipated as well and there is a positive addition to the snowpack. One can hope.

Quoting 254. sar2401:

I hope that the forecast is correct for California and the Northwest. 15 inches isn't likely but at least it looks like a good storm coming in. For the SE, you'll also notice the WPC is doing for us. It seems when the models aren't sure of where precipitation might center, they show it all offshore in the Gulf. Watch it over the next several days and see if the amounts don't shift north and diminish.
Quoting 268. tampabaymatt:



Moderating on this blog is terribly inconsistent. The mods need to realize their job is to be objective, and do pretty much as you described. If someone really got banned for making a climate change joke, that's just ridiculous.


I've been banned for a joke, and for preemptively calling Al Gore fat. This is not a one sided thing.
Quoting 263. StormTrackerScott:

Sub surface warm pool continues to grow stronger with now 3C's reappearing for the first time in months. ESPI is at -0.01 which is an incredible rise from the -.84 just 2 weeks back. SOI last 30 days is at -9.4 so we are at El-Nino levels in just about every category and if this keeps up then the CPC could officially declare El-Nino over the coming weeks as the atmosphere now seems to be clicking in El-Nino levels. ONI is 0.7


Hi Scott, I like the enthusiasm about the Nino but, it looks like cool neutral to La Nina come spring and summer. Lets wait till the end of spring early summer, then we will have a better Idea about the Nina, Nino, conditions come summer. Don't trust any of the models this early in the year.
I got banned for posting a picture of a robotic head, and the point was that this is our future. That was what the blog members were discussing at the time.

The picture was also directly from a scientific article.
I was rather mad, because there was no reason at all for my short ban.

Then I see a non-sense poem (we know who writes them) written in gibberish that is completely off topic and it isn't deleted (but my picture is)?
Good Morning. Today's Aussie Met ENSO update with a current neutral bias. Partially explains the mixed bag of Winter weather for the US in terms of high and low winter storm trajectories. In a pure El Nino year, we would have seen more winter storms penetrate further South this season but parts further North in the Mid-West and East have been taking the brunt thus far; along with the warmer temps in parts of the Pacific NW.


Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO-neutral

Issued on 3 February 2015 

The tropical Pacific Ocean has eased away from the borderline El Niño observed during late 2014. Overall, the tropical Pacific region remains neutral.

Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators include central to eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, temperatures beneath the sea surface and cloudiness near the Date Line. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to near to threshold values, but this is primarily due to tropical weather activity near Tahiti rather than a broadscale climate signal. The SOI is often affected by weather phenomena during this time of the year.

The late summer to early autumn period is the time of year when ENSO events naturally decay. Forecasting beyond this time is therefore difficult, and some caution should be exercised. International models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to remain within the neutral range for at least the next three months.

Next update expected on 17 February 2015 | print version

Quoting 272. Sfloridacat5:

I got banned for posting a picture of a robotic head, and the point was that this is our future. That was what the blog members were discussing at the time.

The picture was also directly from a scientific article.
I was rather mad, because there was no reason at all for my short ban.

Then I see a non-sense poem (we know who writes them) written in gibberish that is completely off topic and it isn't deleted (but my picture is)?


I've been banned a couple of times for "personal attacks" although i never personally attacked anyone on here.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


I've been banned a couple of times for "personal attacks" although i never personally attacked anyone on here.


As long as the rules are enforced equally for everyone, I'm good with it.
I never make personal attacks. I try to keep my posts weather related.

Now people are getting mad because they see too many Florida weather related comments.

What some might not realize is many of the morning members are from Florida.

Myself, Matt, Doug, Largo, Scott, and other Florida members are in the blog during the morning hours. That's why there's a lot of Florida related comments during the first part of the day.

Rain amounts have backed off a little for S. Florida. GFS brings the heaviest rain across the same area of Central Fl. that's been seeing plenty of rain this season.
Is talking about banning against the rules? lol
Quoting 258. PensacolaDoug:

I appreciate the support SAR.
This blog does exhibit a severe lack of a sense of humor at times.


There really should be a place on the internet that allows folks to talk weather, with a touch of comedy.

If only ...
Quoting 275. Sfloridacat5:



Long as the rules are enforced equally for everyone, I'm good with it.
I never make personal attacks. I try to keep my posts weather related.

Now people are getting mad because they see too many Florida weather related comments.

What some might not realize is many of the morning members are from Florida.

Myself, Matt, Largo, Scott, and other Florida members are in the blog during the morning hours. That's why there's a lot of Florida related comments during the first part of the day.


People are just looking for something to complain about. Most of us have the keen ability to scroll past comments that are of little interest to us, some people do not and instead feel every comment should be tailored to them. In fact, it is so enraging, it seems they would rather have no comments instead of having something to at least look at...
And here is the big picture forecast for Conus and the current look and jet:


Arctic airmass will plunge through the central U.S. through mid-week as unsettled weather continues in the Northwest

Cold, arctic air will surge through the northern Plains on Tuesday and continue to spread south and east through Wednesday dropping temperatures in its wake. Meanwhile, an unsettled pattern will keep precipitation in the forecast for the Northwest. Above normal temperatures will confine snowfall to the higher mountain elevations. 

Quoting Naga5000:


Less than the models predicted for surface warmth has still been within the margin of error. A short deviation from the center of the model range is not some weird cause for alarm, especially considering how the models actually work. For example the CIMP5 model series actually contain no observed forcing data after 2005. The different forcing scenarios begin there, and many fail to catch the increased heat uptake by the ocean or the slow down in surface warming, however, that doesn't mean much in the short term as the CIMP models have been shown to very accurate over the long term, which is the goal of these things anyways. They aren't trying to predict a given global temperature on a given date, they are trying to match the long term trend as closely as possible in order to provide a range of projected warming in the future. In fact, when the models are correctly in relative time with oceanic events like La Ninas and El Ninos, they preform exceptionally well. Does this show a short coming in the models, probably not.

Notice that this context is always left out by those decrying the models as inaccurate and those simply claiming global warming isn't actually happening.
I totally agree. My point was that we can recognize that there are always going to be short term wobbles, like surface temperatures not going up as fast as forecast, without meaning we've gone over to the dark side. :-) I've seen so many posts trying to prove what was objectively true didn't happen, as if it was some kind of chink in the armor. Anyone that understands climate knows it's not steady state and that a line on a graph, while it might appear to be straight up, is going to have some peaks and valleys. That doesn't take away anything from the overall science about where the climate is headed.
CWG isn't expecting much from the Thursday system since it'll be moisture starved and the "snow" system is still in question about Sunday and NOT a guarantee.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


As long as the rules are enforced equally for everyone, I'm good with it.
I never make personal attacks. I try to keep my posts weather related.

Now people are getting mad because they see too many Florida weather related comments.

What some might not realize is many of the morning members are from Florida.

Myself, Matt, Doug, Largo, Scott, and other Florida members are in the blog during the morning hours. That's why there's a lot of Florida related comments during the first part of the day.

Rain amounts have backed off a little for S. Florida. GFS brings the heaviest rain across the same area of Central Fl. that's been seeing plenty of rain this season.
I don't have any problem with all the posts from Florida. It's a big state and there's interesting weather there a lot of the time. I could do with less pounding and such but everyone has their own style. I just take it for what it's worth and move on. Many of the Florida posters are among the most knowledgeable we have and post about the general trend in weather in all parts of the country, not just Florida.
Quoting Drakoen:
Is talking about banning against the rules? lol
We'll find out. :-)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I got banned for posting a picture of a robotic head, and the point was that this is our future. That was what the blog members were discussing at the time.

The picture was also directly from a scientific article.
I was rather mad, because there was no reason at all for my short ban.

Then I see a non-sense poem (we know who writes them) written in gibberish that is completely off topic and it isn't deleted (but my picture is)?
I remember that. Seemed rather silly at the time. I also get more than a little tired of the ersatz Bayou gibberish as well.
Quoting 276. Drakoen:

Is talking about banning against the rules? lol


Blog moderation is the sincerest form of nepotism.
Quoting Naga5000:


I've been banned for a joke, and for preemptively calling Al Gore fat. This is not a one sided thing.
Well, Al Gore is fat. It seems rather odd you can be banned for posting what's objectively true, especially since your posts, compared to someone like, say...me...are unfailingly polite. :-)
I've been banned for posting an image of the "seasonal hurricane activity frequency graph" ... I'm so scared now, I can't even call it by its given name.
Quoting 287. sar2401:

Well, Al Gore is fat. It seems rather odd you can be banned for posting what's objectively true, especially since your posts, compared to someone like, say...me...are unfailingly polite. :-)


I'm nothing but nice, Sar. :) I'm a great big shining beacon of politeness.
Sub surface warm pool continues to grow stronger with now 3C's reappearing for the first time in months. ESPI is at -0.01 which is an incredible rise from the -.84 just 2 weeks back. SOI last 30 days is at -9.4 so we are at El-Nino levels in just about every category and if this keeps up then the CPC could officially declare El-Nino over the coming weeks as the atmosphere now seems to be clicking in El-Nino levels. ONI is 0.7

hey scott......the aussie mets just came out with their newest update....let's see what they say.....


Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO-neutral
Issued on 3 February 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The tropical Pacific Ocean has eased away from the borderline El Niño observed during late 2014. Overall, the tropical Pacific region remains neutral.
Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators include central to eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures, temperatures beneath the sea surface and cloudiness near the Date Line. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to near to threshold values, but this is primarily due to tropical weather activity near Tahiti rather than a broadscale climate signal. The SOI is often affected by weather phenomena during this time of the year.
The late summer to early autumn period is the time of year when ENSO events naturally decay. Forecasting beyond this time is therefore difficult, and some caution should be exercised. International models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to remain within the neutral range for at least the next three months.

more from the aussies

Warm anomalies remain in small areas along the equator and across a large part of the northeast of the Pacific Basin. Waters are also warmer than average in the Tasman and Coral seas, as are waters in much of the eastern half of the Indian Ocean. This is opposite to what may be expected during an El Niño period.
concerning sub sea surface anomalies


Monthly sub-surface temperatures
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to January) shows that cool anomalies have increased markedly compared to last month in the sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific while warm anomalies remain in the western equatorial Pacific sub-surface.
concerning the SOI

Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained relatively stable over the past fortnight, hovering around the boundary of neutral and El Niño values. The latest 30-day SOI value to 1 February is −8.3. The recent dip in values of the SOI is primarily related to transient weather systems in the vicinity of Tahiti, and does not indicate a broadscale climate signal.


and yes skye....they even agree with your assessment of what the SOI was reacting to

they're even talkiing about the breakdown of el nino...not strengthening.....

Trade winds
Trade winds were weaker than average over tropical Pacific around and west of the Date Line, with a reversal seen in some parts of the far western tropical Pacific where westerly winds were observed for the 5 days ending 1 February (see map). However it is worth noting that westerly wind anomalies in parts of the western tropical Pacific sometimes occur during as a normal part of the breakdown of an El Niño. Over the remainder of the central and eastern tropical Pacific trade winds were near average.
and once again....we're entering that spring period whan we can't trust the models...

Model outlooks
All eight surveyed international climate models favour neutral values of central Pacific Ocean SSTs until at least April. There is some spread in model outlooks from late autumn to winter. Three models predict warming of SSTs to above El Niño threshold values by mid-winter; three models favour little change in SST anomalies; and two favour some cooling of central Pacific SSTs over autumn–winter, although remaining within neutral bounds.
This spread in model outlooks is indicative of outlooks leading into the autumn period, when the natural cycle of SST temperature tends to break down the gradient across the Pacific and hence the ocean/atmosphere reinforcement. Hence model outlooks forecast through the autumn months have lower confidence than forecasts at other times of the year. Model outlooks for predictions through autumn should therefore be treated with caution.
I'm nothing but nice, Sar. :) I'm a great big shining beacon of politeness.

my only comment on this....is my new years resolution was to not be banned....and i survived january unscathed...no ban...no warning....i am the model blogger
Quoting 288. FBMinFL:

I've been banned for posting an image of the "seasonal hurricane activity frequency graph" ... I'm so scared now, I can't even call it by its given name.


I got banned for posting a picture of a big black clock :/
has anyone but me noticed....now that the CFSV2 is no longer showing a "super Duper el nino" this spring....it's not being posted on the blog much anymore.....


I've never been banned.
Not that I know of anyway.

I feel so utterly left out........
Quoting 297. Drakoen:



I got banned for posting a picture of a big black clock :/


Note to self: read more slowly.
and one of the easiest ways to see if theirs an eastward wind push in the ENSO region...is to go here, earthnull.school.net.....winds look more like they would for la nina than el nino



no more snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! stop it!
Quoting 298. ricderr:

has anyone but me noticed....now that the CFSV2 is no longer showing a "super Duper el nino" this spring....it's not being posted on the blog much anymore.....



Is been posted almost every day.
wow ric on a roll with all those posts....
Quoting 302. hurricanes2018:




no more snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! stop it!
You got that right!.No more snow for you .
Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!

Quoting 299. pottery:

I've never been banned.
Not that I know of anyway.

I feel so utterly left out........
Pott, you are one cool cat. Always appreciate your presence.

Cold morning, 24F 6AM this morning here in Florence. Lucky to get to 50F today. Luckily, light winds.

Quoting 299. pottery:

I've never been banned.
Not that I know of anyway.

I feel so utterly left out........
Quoting 306. washingtonian115:

You got that right!.No more snow for you .


Watch the UKMET for this one. It nailed the last system. It consistently showed the low going North while other models had it down south. In this case the UKMET and the EURO look similar. Note the the high position is different, it's much stronger to the North than it is in the east which is what we want for Mid-Atlantic snows.

UKMET 00z:

I had a few comments deleted three years ago but I deserved it........................Mellowing now as I get older; it's only a weather blog after all and I don't let the trolls, and regulars who woke up on the wrong side of the bed one day and like taking pot shots at people just because, concern me.
Quoting 201. Jedkins01:



Be jealous ;)
Many on this blog may not be so jealous. There are a lot of snow lovers in snowy climes here who seem to want to get buried under a foot and a half of snow. Then when they get their wish, they want more. And so on and so on.

I grew up in that type of climate and can do without it. Snow is nice when it first falls but after a while it can get tiring, especially in a colder and snowier than normal winter. For my preference, it is better to live in a climate where snow is either extremely rare or at least not excessive and then if one needs more snow and cold than their living environment provides, there are always the easy travel options. The latter do not usually necessitate shoveling, for instance, which is a good thing, IMO.
And here is the lower level vort signature on that next Arctic low plunging down into the Mid-West:


313. vis0
dUE TO THE MINI low THAT IS FLARING OVER nyC THE MOISTURE PLUME IN THE epAC WILL
STAY A BIT MORE FOCUSED NEAR cALIFORNIA INSTEAD OF wASHINGTON STATE (SIT DOWN
WASHI115), aLSO THE MOISTURE NEAR LA. WILL BE A BIT MORE JUICY (USING THAT WORD
IN ITS SCIENTIFIC TERM) TILL THE MINI LOW LEAVES THE INNERMOST ML_D
AREA NEAR THE ne>

dUE TO THE FACT THAT I DID NOT KNOW MAPLE SYRUP WOULD STICK SO
QUICKLY WITHIN THE KEYBOARD
(WAS EATING PANCAKES WHILE TYPING) YOU"RE
SEEING THE RESULTS
(NO ITS NOT A RANSOM NOTE) AS I TYPE< GUESS WHICH
KEY IT DRIPPED INTO>
      :_)>  HEY SMILEY LOOKS LIKE ITS
LICKING THE KEYBOARD?

THAT GIVES ME AN IDEA< Hey it works thanks
smiley!
Quoting Drakoen:
wow ric on a roll with all those posts....

What you did there, I see it.
The window of opportunity is getting smaller, but we are not out of winter yet.

Especially SE snowstorms. I've watched them basically materialize out of seemingly nowhere in less than 48 hours. If I get through Valentines Day without snow, then I know I'm probably not going to see any until the following winter.

Quoting 309. Drakoen:



Watch the UKMET for this one. It nailed the last system. It consistently showed the low going North while other models had it down south. In this case the UKMET and the EURO look similar. Note the the high position is different, it's much stronger to the North than it is in the east which is what we want for Mid-Atlantic snows.

UKMET 00z:


Quoting 299. pottery:

I've never been banned.
Not that I know of anyway.

I feel so utterly left out........


Umm.. Pot ya can't get banned if ya don't show up..Good to see you my friend!
Quoting vis0:
dUE TO THE MINI low THAT IS FLARING OVER nyC THE MOISTURE PLUME IN THE epAC WILL
STAY A BIT MORE FOCUSED NEAR cALIFORNIA INSTEAD OF wASHINGTON STATE (SIT DOWN
WASHI115), aLSO THE MOISTURE NEAR LA. WILL BE A BIT MORE JUICY (USING THAT WORD
IN ITS SCIENTIFIC TERM) TILL THE MINI LOW LEAVES THE INNERMOST ML_D
AREA NEAR THE ne>

dUE TO THE FACT THAT I DID NOT KNOW MAPLE SYRUP WOULD STICK SO
QUICKLY WITHIN THE KEYBOARD
(WAS EATING PANCAKES WHILE TYPING) YOU"RE
SEEING THE RESULTS
(NO ITS NOT A RANSOM NOTE) AS I TYPE< GUESS WHICH
KEY IT DRIPPED INTO>
:_)> HEY SMILEY LOOKS LIKE ITS
LICKING THE KEYBOARD?

THAT GIVES ME AN IDEA< Hey it works thanks
smiley!
I often find that licking the keyboard when I've dropped something tasty into it solves a lot of problems. :-)
Quoting Drakoen:


I got banned for posting a picture of a big black clock :/
I got a post deleted once about what shifts they worked at an NWS office just for a tiny misspelling...:-)
Quoting 239. wxgeek723:



Well, they leave the miserable climes in their home state wanting to experience the Sunshine State. Little do they know...


I didn't appreciate how much I missed winter until I left it for three years. I definitely like all four seasons now.
Quoting 315. HaoleboySurfEC:

The window of opportunity is getting smaller, but we are not out of winter yet.

Especially SE snowstorms. I've watched them basically materialize out of seemingly nowhere in less than 48 hours. If I get through Valentines Day without snow, then I know I'm probably not going to see any until the following winter.




In Central New Jersey (Princeton) I had six inches of snow April 6 1982 followed by a day of intense sunshine and a high of 28F.
Next year April 19, 1983 I saw accumulating snow on roads after dark. ( BTW Summer 1983 was extremely hot there!)
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
The window of opportunity is getting smaller, but we are not out of winter yet.

Especially SE snowstorms. I've watched them basically materialize out of seemingly nowhere in less than 48 hours. If I get through Valentines Day without snow, then I know I'm probably not going to see any until the following winter.

And that's one of the reasons Atlanta and Birmingham were such a mess last winter. The storm was well forecast but the areal extent and severity of the storm caught most people off guard. It's pretty rare that we get snow and ice that cover almost the entire states of Alabama and Georgia. It's not hard to predict that we are going to get precipitation. It's not hard to predict we are going to get cold air. Predicting when we will get both at the same time and where falls into the realm of soothsaying. Like you, I don't think we're anywhere near past the time that one of these surprise storms can develop. Lest we forget, the Great Piedmont Snow Storm occurred on February 9-10, 1973, and the Storm of the Century on March 12-14, 1993, which shattered all-time records all over the Southeast. It can happen.
Quoting 319. LargoFl:


more snow for the northeast!
Quoting 320. georgevandenberghe:



I didn't appreciate how much I missed winter until I left it for three years. I definitely like all four seasons now.
I moved to Tampa after living my first 33 years in Michigan and Ohio. It's my fourth winter here and I can say that I do not miss the northern winter at all. I see snow when I visit family and that's enough to quench that desire. We get four seasons here: Hot, Hot and Humid, Still Hot and Humid and Perfect... We are in Perfect until about April :-)
Scenario 1: European Model
The European (ECMWF) model has been showing a stronger dip in the jet stream midweek which draws a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico northward as a clipper tracks over the northern tier. The Euro shows the possibility these two systems combine and strengthen to produce significant snow over parts of the Northeast (New England, in particular) Thursday into Friday.
Quoting 311. FLWaterFront:

Many on this blog may not be so jealous. There are a lot of snow lovers in snowy climes here who seem to want to get buried under a foot and a half of snow. Then when they get their wish, they want more. And so on and so on.

I grew up in that type of climate and can do without it. Snow is nice when it first falls but after a while it can get tiring, especially in a colder and snowier than normal winter. For my preference, it is better to live in a climate where snow is either extremely rare or at least not excessive and then if one needs more snow and cold than their living environment provides, there are always the easy travel options. The latter do not usually necessitate shoveling, for instance, which is a good thing, IMO.


Google "Diary of a Snow Shoveler"
I moved to Tampa after living my first 33 years in Michigan and Ohio. It's my fourth winter here and I can say that I do not miss the northern winter at all. I see snow when I visit family and that's enough to quench that desire. We get four seasons here: Hot, Hot and Humid, Still Hot and Humid and Perfect... We are in Perfect until about April :-)

if you're happy living in florida...god speed...but to think that people are jealous because they don't live there....ignorance at its finest...i enjoyed living in florida...just as much as i enjoy not living in florida....
George, I would have been 13-14, living on Jersey Shore (Spring Lake). I don't recall the April 82 snow, most likely because it may have been just a rainy day at the coast outside St. Catharine's. I do remember the Summer of 1983 because I was a beach bum and it was the first year I had a job working at the beach in Point Pleasant Beach. I used to ride my bike. I remember it being hot and very little rain. It finally got a little wet in late August, but most of the summer was weeks and weeks of perfect beach weather.

Quoting 321. georgevandenberghe:



In Central New Jersey (Princeton) I had six inches of snow April 6 1982 followed by a day of intense sunshine and a high of 28F.
Next year April 19, 1983 I saw accumulating snow on roads after dark. ( BTW Summer 1983 was extremely hot there!)
The only sub-tropical storm in February. The Groundhog Day storm of 1952.



As far as humor on the blog, this is no place for it. Only weather should be discussed. Frivolities should be taken elsewhere.
It's been cold here in mid atlantic but i'm starting to notice the past few arctic outbreaks have slightly underperformed i.e. not quite as cold as forecast.
According to Accuweather, February should be quite cold.

332. bwi
WPC Extended Range discussion

IN THE EAST...WITH THE INITIAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST DAY
3...SNOW IS LIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM
DEPARTS BEYOND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
AND SFC FRONTAL WAVE...SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO UPPER MS VALLEY SAT TO THE GREAT LAKES SUN AND THEN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC LATE SUN TO MON. BEYOND THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MON-TUE SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW
ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES ARE PERSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL DAYS 3-7 IN NEW
YORK/NEW ENGLAND AND DOWN IN FLORIDA.
GFS 12z insists on the low coming down from Canada next week Monday to track over us (no snow) while the the UKMET 12z continues to insist on tracking the low south into the Tennessee River Valley (snow) and is deeper with the trough.
Quoting 331. Grothar:

According to Accuweather, February should be quite cold.




The GFS has been consistent about this for the first half of the month and it's reasonable with a persistent western ridge. Surprise this season has been how much moisture we have gotten from clippers which are usually moisture starved in the Mid Atlantic.
Quoting 328. HaoleboySurfEC:

George, I would have been 13-14, living on Jersey Shore (Spring Lake). I don't recall the April 82 snow, most likely because it may have been just a rainy day at the coast outside St. Catharine's. I do remember the Summer of 1983 because I was a beach bum and it was the first year I had a job working at the beach in Point Pleasant Beach. I used to ride my bike. I remember it being hot and very little rain. It finally got a little wet in late August, but most of the summer was weeks and weeks of perfect beach weather.




April 6 1982 was a major blizzard for the northeast. There was well over a foot just to the west, a sharp gradient over Princeton and little or nothing on the coast (oops sorry SHORE!)
That cold blast was something yesterday afternoon here in Loudoun County VA. 59mph gust at the farm around 2pm. Its the price we pay for having beautiful views of the Catoctin Mountains.
Quoting 322. sar2401:

And that's one of the reasons Atlanta and Birmingham were such a mess last winter. The storm was well forecast but the areal extent and severity of the storm caught most people off guard. It's pretty rare that we get snow and ice that cover almost the entire states of Alabama and Georgia. It's not hard to predict that we are going to get precipitation. It's not hard to predict we are going to get cold air. Predicting when we will get both at the same time and where falls into the realm of soothsaying. Like you, I don't think we're anywhere near past the time that one of these surprise storms can develop. Lest we forget, the Great Piedmont Snow Storm occurred on February 9-10, 1973, and the Storm of the Century on March 12-14, 1993, which shattered all-time records all over the Southeast. It can happen.


The Storm of the Century was well forecast days out although it did develop 12 hours early.
I believe the 1973 storm was forecast 24 hours out.
I am getting a little bored with N. Florida weather. A lot of the reason I like sub-tropical/tropical areas is the flora. In N. Florida It gets cold enough to destroy most any real tropical vegetation and yet not cold enough for any appreciable winter precipitation.

Living near St. Louis was no problem for me. The three winters I was there you could count on one hand the number of appreciable snow accumulation events with about 5 inches being the most. After moving there from N. Florida, the winters weren't that bad. To me, It was like the coldest days of the year from a N. Florida winter, having them a little colder, and just extending them for a longer period of time; nothing a nice jacket couldn't save. It could even get pretty mild, I remember one time wearing jeans and a t-shirt putting up Christmas lights.

I'm two-sided. Half of me loves the "tropical" feel and atmosphere of Central to South Florida and I would be happy living there, and then at the same time it can get boring with that in contrast to the excitement of real 4 season winters with snowfall, and I love the northern trees as well. Although I do draw the line to a certain point: I wouldn't want to live somewhere like the upper peninsula of Michigan where you can be snowed in for periods of time.

I think I'd be happy either place, but maybe first off I'd like to move somewhere north since I've been living in N. Florida most of my life.
I'm not sure how many times this has already been posted.
It was the first time I had seen this and thought it was funny.


Beautiful day here in Fort Myers. Sunny and cool with temps currently in the 60s. Doing a rain dance for later this week.
About 15" below normal since Jan. 2014. Need the rain.
7 day for Fort Myers
343. vis0

Quoting 204. BaltimoreBrian:

Does the groundhog of Sun Prairie Wisconsin need such a big stretch limo?








y--ô--?---------e-----------ô--ô----s High Class rodents travels in the spacious trunk. OHH!
look at that a flat, Phil keeps gnawing at the tires when we stop he's in a
hurry to buy stuff from the millions he generates.
Quoting 341. opal92nwf:

I am getting a little bored with N. Florida weather. A lot of the reason I like sub-tropical/tropical areas is the flora. In N. Florida It gets cold enough to destroy most any real tropical vegetation and yet not cold enough for any appreciable winter precipitation.

Living near St. Louis was no problem for me. The three winters I was there you could count on one hand the number of appreciable snow accumulation events with about 5 inches being the most. After moving there from N. Florida, the winters weren't that bad. To me, It was like the coldest days of the year from a N. Florida winter, having them a little colder, and just extending them for a longer period of time; nothing a nice jacket couldn't save. It could even get pretty mild, I remember one time wearing jeans and a t-shirt putting up Christmas lights.

I'm two-sided. Half of me loves the "tropical" feel and atmosphere of Central to South Florida and I would be happy living there, and then at the same time I can get bored with that and love the excitement of real 4 season winters with snowfall, and I love the northern trees as well. Although I do draw the line to a certain point: I wouldn't want to live somewhere like the upper peninsula of Michigan where you can be snowed in for periods of time.

I think I'd be happy either place, but maybe first off I'd like to move somewhere north since I've been living in N. Florida most of my life.
well many people live in the north for the spring summer etc and come to florida for the winter season..those folks have the best of both worlds huh.
347. bwi
GFS no likey snow for DC
LOL...ok......there goes the no being banned in 2015......so now it is.....i won't get banned more than once in 2015....and the funny thing...i wasn't attacking anyone...i was defending a post that was misrepresented....but i quoted the post...my bad...sorry keep...i was trying there

Quoting 349. ricderr:

LOL...ok......there goes the no being banned in 2015......so now it is.....i won't get banned more than once in 2015....and the funny thing...i wasn't attacking anyone...i was defending a post that was misrepresented....but i quoted the post...my bad...sorry keep...i was trying there


I know I just walked in on lunch and sorta kinda wanted to nip that in the bud sorta speak nothing against ya at all ric in fact I think you are alright as far as iam concern
Quoting 338. FarmerKarl:

That cold blast was something yesterday afternoon here in Loudoun County VA. 59mph gust at the farm around 2pm. Its the price we pay for having beautiful views of the Catoctin Mountains.


But the shallow pond I walk the dogs by in early AM is 2/3 open water with a thin skim of ice elsewhere. I remember ice skating here in DC suburbs (annandale) when I was a kid in the late 60s and early 70s. Pond skating was forbidden by my parents but streams up to thigh deep were allowed since a fall through the ice would not be fatal. Smaller streams used to get thick unquestionably walkable ice on the pools most of the winters of the late 60s and early 70s. (My preteen arguments that the ponds were also unquestionably skateable were not accepted)

No question of ice skating now and that pond would be a hazard for my labs if the ice got over an inch thick. They WOULD go out on it and fall through

Quoting 309. Drakoen:



Watch the UKMET for this one. It nailed the last system. It consistently showed the low going North while other models had it down south. In this case the UKMET and the EURO look similar. Note the the high position is different, it's much stronger to the North than it is in the east which is what we want for Mid-Atlantic snows.

UKMET 00z:



I'm still waiting for our first decent storm here, last one nailed Chicago, we were forecasted for 6-10'' 2days out but that widdle down to an inch...:/
Quoting 341. opal92nwf:

I am getting a little bored with N. Florida weather. A lot of the reason I like sub-tropical/tropical areas is the flora. In N. Florida It gets cold enough to destroy most any real tropical vegetation and yet not cold enough for any appreciable winter precipitation.

Living near St. Louis was no problem for me. The three winters I was there you could count on one hand the number of appreciable snow accumulation events with about 5 inches being the most. After moving there from N. Florida, the winters weren't that bad. To me, It was like the coldest days of the year from a N. Florida winter, having them a little colder, and just extending them for a longer period of time; nothing a nice jacket couldn't save. It could even get pretty mild, I remember one time wearing jeans and a t-shirt putting up Christmas lights.

I'm two-sided. Half of me loves the "tropical" feel and atmosphere of Central to South Florida and I would be happy living there, and then at the same time it can get boring with that in contrast to the excitement of real 4 season winters with snowfall, and I love the northern trees as well. Although I do draw the line to a certain point: I wouldn't want to live somewhere like the upper peninsula of Michigan where you can be snowed in for periods of time.

I think I'd be happy either place, but maybe first off I'd like to move somewhere north since I've been living in N. Florida most of my life.


Although I've poked thousands of barbs at it, I'm actually ready for a gardening rematch with the Panhandle climate and wouldn't mind another go at Florida living. That or Minneapolis for a "different" experience.

I know I just walked in on lunch and sorta kinda wanted to nip that in the bud sorta speak nothing against ya at all ric in fact I think you are alright as far as iam concern


never a problem keep......you gave me the explanation in the reason section...and i violated the rules.....that simple....i'm good...and you're good....life is good
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


But the shallow pond I walk the dogs by in early AM is 2/3 open water with a thin skim of ice elsewhere. I remember ice skating here in DC suburbs (annandale) when I was a kid in the late 60s and early 70s. Pond skating was forbidden by my parents but streams up to thigh deep were allowed since a fall through the ice would not be fatal. Smaller streams used to get thick unquestionably walkable ice on the pools most of the winters of the late 60s and early 70s. (My preteen arguments that the ponds were also unquestionably skateable were not accepted)

No question of ice skating now and that pond would be a hazard for my labs if the ice got over an inch thick. They WOULD go out on it and fall through



I did a lot of ice skating on the local ponds/lakes during the 1970s in the Washington D.C. area. One Winter we even ice skated from my friend's house (lived on an inlet) out on the Potomac River.
I fell through the ice a bunch of times, but I always caught myself with my arms to prevent myself from going completely under water.


12Z GFS shifted the rain further north in FL.
counting to 10..........1...2....3....4....5....6....7....8... ..yep...i'm good now...no need to respond...

on to better things......

temps to reach 70 tomorrow...and by the weekend mid to high 70's....whoohooo
Quoting 347. bwi:

GFS no likey snow for DC



GFS shows a 1040mb up in eastern Canada. That would give credence to a more southerly track like the other models.
Quoting 220. Patrap:

362 comments and not 1 Groundhog recipe?

Geesh, y'all be slippin'....



Quoting 351. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I know I just walked in on lunch and sorta kinda wanted to nip that in the bud sorta speak nothing against ya at all ric in fact I think you are alright as far as iam concern

Keep ya run a great shop. Have appreciated you for many years on the blog.
Quoting 352. georgevandenberghe:



But the shallow pond I walk the dogs by in early AM is 2/3 open water with a thin skim of ice elsewhere. I remember ice skating here in DC suburbs (annandale) when I was a kid in the late 60s and early 70s. Pond skating was forbidden by my parents but streams up to thigh deep were allowed since a fall through the ice would not be fatal. Smaller streams used to get thick unquestionably walkable ice on the pools most of the winters of the late 60s and early 70s. (My preteen arguments that the ponds were also unquestionably skateable were not accepted)

No question of ice skating now and that pond would be a hazard for my labs if the ice got over an inch thick. They WOULD go out on it and fall through



Our farm pond is currently about 1" thick except for about 4 spots - where all the bullfrog tadpoles are congregating to get air. When I was a kid north of Baltimore in the 60's we used to play hockey on the ponds. Not every year, but enough I remember it. Even last year, our pond didn't freeze over enough for us to go out on it - although we did see a set of 7 year old footprints on the ice. Closest I've come to dishing out a full fleged old school whoopin' to our munchkin. (Can I say that without getting banned?) She won't do that again.
362 comments and not 1 Groundhog recipe?

Geesh, y'all be slippin'....


you know pat...i was just thinking...what should i have for dinner......and the thought of groundhog was on the tip of my tongue.....and now...well...i've got a recipe....we gonna have us some vittles tonight
Quoting hurricanes2018:


Doesn't look too bad. I figured you'd have about 3-4 feet of snow on the ground after the two back to back storms.
Quoting ricderr:
362 comments and not 1 Groundhog recipe?

Geesh, y'all be slippin'....


you know pat...i was just thinking...what should i have for dinner......and the thought of groundhog was on the tip of my tongue.....and now...well...i've got a recipe....we gonna have us some vittles tonight


I thought your daily special was baked Crow. Crow never goes out of season around here.

I guess there's always room to add some Groundhog to your lunch menu.

The Crow is available to deserving blog members free of charge.
Quoting 367. ricderr:

362 comments and not 1 Groundhog recipe?

Geesh, y'all be slippin'....


you know pat...i was just thinking...what should i have for dinner......and the thought of groundhog was on the tip of my tongue.....and now...well...i've got a recipe....we gonna have us some vittles tonight


I think of it as harvesting my garden higher up in the food chain
Quoting 355. georgevandenberghe:



Although I've poked thousands of barbs at it, I'm actually ready for a gardening rematch with the Panhandle climate and wouldn't mind another go at Florida living. That or Minneapolis for a "different" experience.


Minneapolis would indeed be a vast difference from the Washington DC area or the Baltimore-Washington corridor, which is where you live now, if I am recalling correctly and not losing it (my memory).

For example, how often does frostbite become an issue where you live now? My guess is not often to almost never, which is probably for the best. Minneapolis? Well now, that is testing the limits to some extent.
Quoting FLWaterFront:
Minneapolis would indeed be a vast difference from the Washington DC area or the Baltimore-Washington corridor, which is where you live now, if I am recalling correctly and not losing it (my memory).

For example, how often does frostbite become an issue where you live now? My guess is not often to almost never, which is probably for the best. Minneapolis? Well now, that is testing the limits to some extent.


Winter in Minneapolis is like living in interior Alaska.
I had a friend move up there during the Winter (job transfer/promotion) and he only lasted one month. I saw him and asked him what happened. He said "there's no way I can handle months of weather like that."
Quoting 373. Sfloridacat5:



Winter in Minneapolis is like living in interior Alaska.
I had a friend move up there during the Winter (job transfer/promotion) and he only lasted one month. I saw him and asked him what happened. He said "there's no way I can handle months of weather like that."


Haha, same exact thing happened to me. At one time, the company I worked for was moving operations to St. Paul. They offered me a job up there, versus losing mine here. I went up there for some transitional work in the dead of winter and I just couldn't imagine dealing with that severe of cold every year. I can handle the cold better than most Floridians, but Minnesota cold is no joke.
Gee, Huh?


Quoting 371. Patrap:



ISIS who had the Jordanian Pilot who was shot down,prisoner, burned Him alive in a Metal cage in a Orange Jumpsuit.

I may be the only 55 yr old former USMC Veteran to go back on Active Duty.

Im writing a letter to the Commandant.

I want them, all of them.



I thought there was no such thing as a retired Marine anyways... Not that I disagree with your line of thinking.
FWIW, some of the happiest, most well-adjusted people I've ever known are from Minnesota. It's cold, yes, but it sure seems to produce some really nice people.

Good public university as well; had several fellow grad students from there, and was taught by some professors who were educated there as well.

Never been there myself, but if I were to go, it would probably be sometime between April and October...
Quoting 376. Dakster:



I thought there was no such thing as a retired Marine anyways... Not that I disagree with your line of thinking.


Where do you see the werd "retired"

LOL

The term yer mistaken for, is..there are no FORMER Marines,

We may have former friends, and some of us, "wives",,but never will u hear one of us use the term, "former" Marine.
Quoting 375. Patrap:

Gee, Huh?





Saved yourself from a mini ban?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 379. Drakoen:



Saved yourself from a mini ban?

Never.

One can remove a comment from view, but it will remain in the server head.

Your comment quote is the wrong one

I modified number 371, not 375 sport.

And after 34 banns in 9 years, whose counting anyways?
ECMWF 12z and GFS 12z in agreement for next week. May they should just fire up the Winter Storm Warnings for New England from now
Quoting 381. Patrap:


Never.

One can remove a comment from view, but it will remain in the server head.

Your comment quote is the wrong one

I modified number 371, not 375 sport.

And after 34 banns in 9 years, whose counting anyways?


I know which one it was lol
Dammit Gumby!
385. vis0

Quoting 275. Sfloridacat5:



As long as the rules are enforced equally for everyone, I'm good with it.
I never make personal attacks. I try to keep my posts weather related.

Now people are getting mad because they see too many Florida weather related comments.

What some might not realize is many of the morning members are from Florida.

Myself, Matt, Doug, Largo, Scott, and other Florida members are in the blog during the morning hours. That's why there's a lot of Florida related comments during the first part of the day.

Rain amounts have backed off a little for S. Florida. GFS brings the heaviest rain across the same area of Central Fl. that's been seeing plenty of rain this season.


Quoting 251. tampabaymatt:



i got banned for posting weather related theories and i guess too much of my
weather influencing invention.
To me that's like banning Einstein for posting e-mc² too many times ...on a
scientifically centered website IF THEY EXISTED THEN. (NOT COMPARING
MYSELF
) just that we're are both beings with new ideas. 
But then again i was asked to leave ABC-TV new york's weather blog by the
moderator Bevans ( i had two user names the last was "akamrx" though a fan
nicknamed "Lloyd Lindsay Young JR") as members there said i was
a nutty and "over the top" and i was asked to leave or be banned just as my last
post was to look out for more TS in 2005, than the to be names + the language of
Nick Gregory ancestors, added to the names list. That meant NHC had to use the
Greek alphabet and this i posted Oct 2004, that's when i was still very much so
putting together an 7-8 yr Galacsics wxtrend prediction using NASA's star maps.
The Galacsic Calendars are only a part of that research that i would start after
Virgo and it took me till after Sagittarius. i used the old man with the staff
& serpent, the 13th zodiac that falls for only ~ 2 weeks between my Libra
& Scorpio as that "sign" acts like the ferrite bead acts in controlling
"mag. waves" as its not on the same plane but around the 22 degree plane so
zodiac amateurs do not count it as a zodiac sign plus its Moses to those that
wrote the 'ol scriptures. Also the Sag. zodiac the "cave" aka "dark area/dust"
in space i use as a filter to read the stars energies from the point of view of
the sun every year i would prepare the 8 yr trend. See even if i prepare an 7-8
yr trend last Dec 2014 one has read the stars energies AGAIN this year to append
any slight changes like a star expanding, collapsing rivers of energy
interacting etc, i see a ban coming so i bid all an
heeeelllllllllllllllllloooooooo wxu. OH BTW moderating
is a very difficult job
as it weighs on ones conscience. i just wish
weather related posts no matter how crazy they seem instead of banning would be
removed with a link to where the comment in ITS original form would be re posted
by the moderator in a blog called "too weird but member sayz its science" and
leave it there till the blogger removes it, paying members give it more no than
yes votes by at the end of a 365.25 days of being posted or "forever", see U in
a few days, INjoy
Quoting 342. Sfloridacat5:

I'm not sure how many times this has already been posted.
It was the first time I had seen this and thought it was funny.


Beautiful day here in Fort Myers. Sunny and cool with temps currently in the 60s. Doing a rain dance for later this week.
About 15" below normal since Jan. 2014. Need the rain.
7 day for Fort Myers

It's probably because the rodent knows more about the climate. :)
Quoting 374. tampabaymatt:



Haha, same exact thing happened to me. At one time, the company I worked for was moving operations to St. Paul. They offered me a job up there, versus losing mine here. I went up there for some transitional work in the dead of winter and I just couldn't imagine dealing with that severe of cold every year. I can handle the cold better than most Floridians, but Minnesota cold is no joke.


A friend also raised in Tampa was relocated to MSP in 1990. Great company and he moved but he has always
made clear he does not LIVE in Minnesota, he RESIDES there!