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Brazil, California Face Specter of Worsening Drought

By: Bob Henson 9:35 PM GMT on January 30, 2015

January has not been kind to two parched corners of the Americas. A large chunk of California’s San Francisco Bay area is wrapping up the month with no measurable rainfall, a first for January since records began--all the way back to 1850 in the case of downtown San Francisco. This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor dataset shows 77.5% of California in the worst two categories of drought (extreme and exceptional), compared to 67.1% at this point last year. There is still hope that February, March, or even April could bring a few wet storms to salvage the rainy season across central and southern California, but for now the atmosphere appears locked in this year’s version of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that delivered severe drought and record heat to California in 2014. With virtually no chance of rain through Saturday, the January records below look certain to be broken (or tied, in the case of Redding).

Downtown San Francisco: no rain reported through 1/29 (record 0.06”, 2014)
Downtown Sacramento: 0.01” (record 0.07”, 2007)
Oakland Airport: trace (record 0.04”, 2014)
Monterey: 0.01” (record 0.04”, 2014)
San José: 0.02” (record 0.10”, 1920)
Napa: trace (record 0.11”, 2014)
Redding: 0.26” (record 0.26”, 1984)
Stockton: 0.02 (record 0.14”, 1976)



Figure 1. Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program for the Department of Water Resources, conducts the second snow survey of the season at Echo Summit, California, on Thursday, January 29. The survey showed the snowpack to to be 7.1 inches deep with a water content of 2.3 inches, which is just 12 percent of normal for the site at this time of year. Image credit: AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli.


California’s water year--defined as October 1 to September 30--got off to a reasonably promising start. According to NOAA, statewide precipitation was almost two inches above the average of 7.34” for the period October through December, thanks largely to a cluster of very wet storms in December. But those were also very warm storms that added to reservoirs and aquifers in the Central Valley but left the normally snow-clad slopes of the Sierra Nevada shockingly bare. The Sierra snowpack provides about a third of California’s water supply; it’s vital for keeping rivers and streams flowing into the summer, as well as for attracting tourists, skiers, and boarders in winter. On Thursday, the second California snow survey of the winter found 7.1” of snow and 2.3” of liquid in the snowpack at Echo Summit (see Figure 1). The liquid value was only 12 percent of the average for this time of year. As a whole, the northern Sierra snowpack is the lowest on record for January. One of the most stark symbols of the drought is the landscape around Lake Tahoe, where lower-elevation snow has been almost nonexistent. The average snowfall at South Lake Tahoe from October to January is 68.1”. As of January 29, the resort had received just 7.1”, with nothing measurable on the ground since January 2.

Water crisis looms in São Paulo

The state of water supply is far more dire in the region around São Paulo, Brazil, which is the most populous city in the Western Hemisphere and the third largest metropolitan area. The city’s 11 million residents, and the 20 million across the urbanized region, depend on a system of reservoirs that are perilously close to running completely dry in the midst of the region’s worst drought since at least 1930. Almost half of the São Paulo metro area relies on the main reservoir system, Cantareira (see Figure 2), which has slumped to just 5.1% of capacity as of January 29, according to data available online from Sabesp, the local water utility. The crisis is affecting not only water access but power, since the region is highly dependent on hydroelectricity. Sporadic power cuts have been reported, and close to 100 cities have implemented some type of water rationing, affecting some 4 million people. There have also been reports of unofficial rationing in the São Paulo area itself.


Figure 2. View of the bed of Jacarei River Dam, in Piracaia, during a drought affecting São Paulo state, Brazil on November 19, 2014. The dam is part of the São Paulo's Cantareira system of dams, which supplies water to 45% of the metropolitan region of São Paulo and is now at a historic low. Image credit: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images.


Climatologically, rainfall is ample across this subtropical area, and unlike San Francisco, the São Paulo region hasn’t been completely bone-dry this month. Weather Underground’s monthly summary page for São Paulo's Conghonas International Airport Inter shows that showers and thunderstorms have dropped modest amounts of rain on the city on about half of all days this month, totaling 4.21.” However, this is far short of the average monthly total for January of 13.76" indicated at Conghonas for a period of record extending back at least to 1996. The latest rainfall forecasts for the region are not especially encouraging--the Friday Weather Underground forecast for Sao Paulo predicted near-average rains of about 2" for the coming week, and the Friday morning 12 UTC run of the GFS model predicted near-average rains of about 5" in the Sao Paulo region through mid-February.

Even assuming water can be found elsewhere in the region to help get the city through the immediate crisis, the impacts on power supply may continue to loom large. São Paulo sits more than 40 miles inland and 2600 feet above sea level, making desalination an impractical option. The Center for Climate Change and Security notes the major risks presented by the current drought as well as other droughts that could develop across Brazil in the coming decade and beyond. Although the nation has made great strides in reducing deforestation over the last few years, the losses already incurred cut back on the ability of forests--especially those in the Amazon--to catch moisture and return it to the atmosphere through evapotranspiration. Many studies have shown potential links between the loss of Amazon rainforest and regional droughts, findings that were recently summarized by Antonio Donato Nobre (a senior researcher at the National Institute of Space Research and National Institute of Amazonian Research) in a widely discussed report, “The Future Climate of Amazonia.” No direct links have yet been made between the São Paulo drought and deforestation. However, Nobre cautions: “Because most of the water that irrigates the bread-basket quadrangle of southern South America originates from the Amazon, the future climate of the continent may be considerably dryer. In a worst-case scenario, it would resemble present-day Australia: a vast desert interior fringed on one side by strips of wetter areas near the sea.”

We'll have another post on Monday and will keep an eye on the storm making its way across the Midwest this weekend, which could bring significant snow to New England early next week.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. When water becomes political: Members of the Homeless Workers Movement (MTST) take part in a protest in São Paulo on September 25, 2014, against the rationing of water in neighborhoods on the city’s outskirts. The supply of water to many cities in the state of São Paulo has been hampered by the worst drought since 1930. Image credit: Nelson Almeida/AFP/Getty Images.


Video 1. Dry conditions in drought-stricken Central Brazil helped spawn a huge dust devil which hit Araguapaz in late January. Local news showed the video on January 30. Thanks to wunderground member barbarmz for posting this.


Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. beell:

Well, it was a gosh-darn bad play call...


Sure was, but I'm OK with it......
502. vis0

Quoting 463. Grothar:

Half-time show?? I've seen better 6th grade play rehearsals. When I think of the millions of people watching around the world, I'm a little embarrassed.
Mummenschanz was more entertaining, for those that think i'm speaking another language guess again.
Mummenschanz had one performance where they unrolled mucho toilet paper (tp on AMEX), like those AmericasFunniestVids where cats unroll tp except here it was people do the unrolling. we've come a long way...2ply
Quoting 500. Jedkins01:

.


I guess the superbowl left you speechless?
Quoting 497. Jedkins01:

Man the Tallahassee storm total product often underestimates rainfall, especially close to the radar site, but it's really underestimating by a long shot tonight. The radar estimate says only a trace of accumulation but we've already had 0.61 in my gauge since I last checked and now it's raining quite heavy so the total is about to go up a good amount more.

We were only supposed to get about 0.25 out of this event which seemed reasonable as it's not a very thick or strong band, but it slowed down and has been stuck over Tallahassee to some degree, which seems like a pretty common thing to happen with systems lately.

I almost wonder if these storm total product issues are coming from the fact that it's an old dated method and the NWS uses more accurate and higher resolution products for rainfall now. I wonder if maybe the fact that the product doesn't get any tweaks or updates now that it's dated such that these issues are common now.

Whatever the case, the storm total product is way off, lol.


In their defense, the NWS Tally forecasted a precipitation minimum, and the Hi-Res Models agreed with this (at least the one's I saw on NWS website) which really only predicted .15-.2". Other areas (Panama City/Defuniak Springs) had a QPF maximum within the models and they got shafted with about 1/4 inch. It really wasn't a low bias with the rain totals as much as it was a misplacement of the highest rainfall, we've gotten a training rainband moving through Leon County.Still, officially .6" at the airport so far. Although with the favorable downslope on many FSU roads it still has lead to minor flooding around the library/stadium areas.
Quoting 496. aquak9:

dancing?
sharks?

it looks like teletubbies gone bad.



I don't think Dear Leader was all that impressed, and he loves katy perry, but he'll deny it in an INTERVIEW.
506. vis0

Quoting 464. sar2401:

It may but history is not on its side. Even if it makes it, it usually loses most of the severe characteristics before it gets to my house. I'll take the wind (well, as long as it doesn't blow the house down) and even a tree or two down as long as we get a decent rain out of it. Now is when we start to stock up on rain for the spring so we need a good soaker. Haven't had one of those in a couple of months now.
careful what you wooosh for...don't forget the ml-d "push-pull effect" (no nothing to do when 2 people are stuck in a revolving door)  LOW goes more towards east, Cali gets rain the BIG LOW in Aleutian area that was being powered by the "deflected Jet" sent northward, but as soon as this new LOW began to interact with the ml-d (in zip code 10016, posted the times last might before the Aleutian low crumbled).  Presto chango Cali is receiving some clouds and a bit of unexpected precip. and the Low that was going to Canada via I-55 now is taking the scenic rout through the Appalachians, magic!
Quoting 463. Grothar:

Half-time show?? I've seen better 6th grade play rehearsals. When I think of the millions of people watching around the world, I'm a little embarrassed.




Hey you're not alone, I thought it was strange stuff by personal preference, as do I think of a lot of pop music. Seems a good chunk of pop music is now more of a stage performance art rather than pure lovely musicianship from my prospective.

It's not that any of today's most popular music artists like Katy Perry aren't talented, it's just producers tell them to make what I would consider strange stuff, and apparently many love it, or at least people are told they should love it, haha.

I love music, but most of today's pop music isn't my cup of tea. It's not that there isn't any popular musicians I don't like, I like some popular bands like Mumford and sons and Foo fighters, but a lot the most popular stuff I'm not into at all.

Music after all is a preference thing, for example, I like my share of metal, and most people in my demographic find the entire genre of metal to be offensive, and dark, but it's not always what people think by any means, it's music style, and can vary quite a bit more than people who don't listen to it often think.
Quoting 488. Grothar:



I'm not old, I just miss Guy Lomardo. :)

ok...had to google guy lomardo he looks adorable...funny thing is that my daughters loved the dancing sharks.
Quoting 504. fmhurricane2009:



In their defense, the NWS Tally forecasted a precipitation minimum, and the Hi-Res Models agreed with this (at least the one's I saw on NWS website) which really only predicted .15-.2". Other areas (Panama City/Defuniak Springs) had a QPF maximum within the models and they got shafted with about 1/4 inch. It really wasn't a low bias with the rain totals as much as it was a misplacement of the highest rainfall, we've gotten a training rainband moving through Leon County.Still, officially .6" at the airport so far. Although with the favorable downslope on many FSU roads it still has lead to minor flooding around the library/stadium areas.


I agree the forecast was fine, I was mainly making note of how poorly the traditional radar estimate method is working tonight, and discussing the possible reasons why.

As far as the forecast, yeah we are getting a lot more than forecast mainly because the rain band temporarily stalled around Tallahassee. I'm on the east side of town and just checked the gauge at 11:59 and my gauge is at 0.81 now although the rain is almost over for now accept for one last little band with some rain about to move in here. The rain has been a bit heavier on the east side of town which is why I've had more than the airport.

I was only thinking we were going to get 0.15-0.25 out of this as well, and that's probably all we would have gotten if the rain band didn't slow down, also a few heavier cells developed as that band moved through as well, it briefly got pretty heavy here at times, so I'm happily surprised. More rain is always fun and is good for plants and wildlife, and us, as long as it's not destructive flooding of course.
I was going to post this as another unpopular opinion on Facebook (anyone that's friends with me knows :P), and I probably still will just for ****s and giggles, but I want to like... argh, here's a rough paraphrase of what I wanna do:

"Unpopular opinion X random sequential number: I was at work today, so I missed the Super Bowl. I did not inquire of the score at any point, and I can happily say I do not care."
Quoting 509. Jedkins01:



I agree the forecast was fine, I was mainly making note of how poorly the traditional radar estimate method is working tonight, and discussing the possible reasons why.

As far as the forecast, yeah we are getting a lot more than forecast mainly because the rain band temporarily stalled around Tallahassee. I'm on the east side of town and just checked the gauge at 11:59 and my gauge is at 0.81 now although the rain is almost over for now accept for one last little band with some rain about to move in here. The rain has been a bit heavier on the east side of town which is why I've had more than the airport.

I was only thinking were going to get 0.15-0.25 out of this as well, so I'm happily surprised, more rain is always fun and is good for plants and wildlife, and us, as long as it's not destructive flooding of course.

Agreed, it must've been a site to behold when TLH got about 10" in one day. The area around my dorm and Honors way had several inches of standing water pooling into the usual poor drainage spots. We should get a final (extremely thin) burst of rain about 7-8AM, signaling the actual cold front.

I've become a lot less high on the rainfall potential for the mid-week system. QPF should stay under 1", unless a random stall occurs. I was talking to some friends and we agreed last week on the possibility of several inches. Also, the cold air doesn't appear as deep so the Southern snow event is looking a lot less promising than it did 18-24 hours ago.
Quoting 511. fmhurricane2009:


Agreed, it must've been a site to behold when TLH got about 10" in one day. The area around my dorm and Honors way had several inches of standing water pooling into the usual poor drainage spots. We should get a final (extremely thin) burst of rain about 7-8AM, signaling the actual cold front.

I've become a lot less high on the rainfall potential for the mid-week system. QPF should stay under 1", unless a random stall occurs. I was talking to some friends and we agreed last week on the possibility of several inches. Also, the cold air doesn't appear as deep so the Southern snow event is looking a lot less promising than it did 18-24 hours ago.


Yeah I wasn't here for that event either, but I bet it would have been amazing to see, and it set the all time record rain event for December. I did see the after effects of major erosion on a streams and creeks around here. In my apartment complex, even though it's up on a hill, there was some flooding in one of the buildings due to excessive runoff. The apartment maintenance ended up building gutters and drainage ditches around all the buildings in this complex to help prevent it from happening again.

And yeah I don't think the cold air outbreak will be as strong as originally shown, the models have backed off, which isn't surprising as it wouldn't be the first time this winter that the guidance has shown brutally cold arctic air including a deep south snow storm and teens for lows and snow in Tallahassee, only for it to end up being just another run of the mill cool event in the area as mode guidance progresses.

As far as the rain event goes Thursday, yeah the guidance has trended further south with the low placement in the gulf, and this system is being shown by the models as being more cold front dominant precip wise instead of warm front dominant, with the heaviest rain in Central Florida being more likely this time.

Still though, cool warm front rain events are usually pretty good in terms of storm total for Tallahassee for gulf lows, even if the low passes to the south as guidance is showing, so I wouldn't rule out an inch just yet.

Quoting 510. KoritheMan:

I was going to post this as another unpopular opinion on Facebook (anyone that's friends with me knows :P), and I probably still will just for ****s and giggles, but I want to like... argh, here's a rough paraphrase of what I wanna do:

"Unpopular opinion X random sequential number: I was at work today, so I missed the Super Bowl. I did not inquire of the score at any point, and I can happily say I do not care."


It's alright to admit you don't care about football if you simply don't care, I just think it's silly when people don't care about major culturally social events simply to just be a rebel, I say why not have some fun?

Unless of course you have to work, or you have friends that also don't care about football, and would rather be doing something else, and have fun doing it instead.

I for example don't care at all about basketball, and baseball really isn't my cup of tea either, so I usually find my friends who also don't care about those championship sports events and hang out with them.

Nothing against people who love basketball and baseball, I just don't care. I like football, hockey, and a number of other sports, but basketball and baseball aren't really my thing, especially basketball, I'm downright terrible at, and it doesn't interest me.

Just don't be against the even simply to be rebel ;)
Quoting 513. Jedkins01:



It's alright to admit you don't care about football if you simply don't care, I just think it's silly when people don't care about major culturally social events simply to just be a rebel, I say why not have some fun?

Unless of course you have to work, or you have friends that also don't care about football, and would rather be doing something else, and have fun doing it instead.

I for example don't care at all about basketball, and baseball really isn't my cup of tea either, so I usually find my friends who also don't care about those championship sports events and hang out with them.

Nothing against people who love basketball and baseball, I just don't care. I like football, hockey, and a number of other sports, but basketball and baseball aren't really my thing, especially basketball, I'm downright terrible at, and it doesn't interest me.

Just don't be against the even simply to be rebel ;)


Dude, literally all of my unpopular opinion posts aren't me trolling*. Most of them are kinda just made up on the spot as I get random thoughts in my head during quiet time, but I promise every single one of my thoughts have actually been formulated. I don't make them just to be a rebel.

Honestly, I thought you would know that by now, haha.

*Although this particular would be post might have had a bit of trollish intent. But like... the trolling would be less about railing against the grain and more to do with just being funny in my own weird way. I don't know how to explain it, but it's not meant to be derogatory at all, lol.

EDIT: Now you've gotten me thinking that I might be giving people the wrong idea. Maybe a status update forthcoming about that? :000000
Quoting 514. KoritheMan:



Dude, literally all of my unpopular opinion posts aren't me trolling*. Most of them are kinda just made up on the spot as I get random thoughts in my head during quiet time, but I promise every single one of my thoughts have actually been formulated. I don't make them just to be a rebel.

Honestly, I thought you would know that by now, haha.

*Although this particular would be post might have had a bit of trollish intent. But like... the trolling would be less about railing against the grain and more to do with just being funny in my own weird way. I don't know how to explain it, but it's not meant to be derogatory at all, lol.


Nah man, no worries, I'm not taking you too seriously, it's my way of talking, I often talk in a way where I cover my bases such that I was basically just sharing my thoughts on people who do simply avoid such events to be a rebel. Even if you were, I don't think it's really a big deal, we can all be silly in our own ways about things.

But anyway, yeah I wasn't taking your post too seriously, I'll admit I'm not nearly as good at picking up sarcasm on the internet as in person, but I wasn't taking you too seriously haha.

I guess I'm not the most articulate individual at times, lol.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dude, literally all of my unpopular opinion posts aren't me trolling*. Most of them are kinda just made up on the spot as I get random thoughts in my head during quiet time, but I promise every single one of my thoughts have actually been formulated. I don't make them just to be a rebel.

Honestly, I thought you would know that by now, haha.

*Although this particular would be post might have had a bit of trollish intent. But like... the trolling would be less about railing against the grain and more to do with just being funny in my own weird way. I don't know how to explain it, but it's not meant to be derogatory at all, lol.

EDIT: Now you've gotten me thinking that I might be giving people the wrong idea. Maybe a status update forthcoming about that? :000000
A status update, eh? This should be interesting.

You didn't miss anything with the Superbowl except for the dancing sharks. Pats win because of a terrible last play call by the Seahawks. I hate the Pats and Brady. I didn't have a dog in that fight so it was boring anyway.

Speaking of trollish, the line of storms that caused a bunch of severe thunderstorms earlier in Mississippi and western Alabama is being shredded to bits on the south end as usual. These storms from the west that come in with a NE-SW orientation almost never make it here intact. If I'm lucky I'll get another tenth out of it before it's done.Just too long a distance to travel I guess. There's quite a bit of lightning out in the Gulf off Louisiana. That should form up into another line that will undoubtedly pound, hammer, fold, and staple central Florida later today. They always do, it seems. I sometimes wonder if they ever get a regular old thunderstorm.

EDIT: There is something weird happening though. The temperature is up from 58 to 62 in the last 45 minutes but the wind has shifted to the west. That makes me nervous when the temperature rises that fast at 12:25 am local.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
What... I can't joke about anything without offending people now?
I'm personally very offended.

What did you joke about?
Quoting 518. sar2401:

I'm personally very offended.

What did you joke about?
Basically me saying RIP Tornado6042008X (myself) because "I died" from the Seahawks last minute bad call.
Another Intense Tropical Cyclone will forms between Mozambique and Madagascar this week. Probably between Wednesday and Thursday as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression. The next name is "Fundi".



Here's an interesting snippet from the news I saw this morning about Iceland's melting ice cap and the rising of its land surface.
New term! "Climatically induced geophysical changes!"

Link

A few lines from the article:-
What we are observing is a climatically induced change in the Earth surface, he says.

Even more worryingly, this change is happening way faster than previous research suggested. If melting continues at its current pace, by around 2025, some parts of Iceland will be rising at a rate of 15.7 inches a year."
An active pattern for FL appears to be on the way.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
423 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015


DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ 036>040-050>057-
502-506-021730-
/O.CON.KLWX.WI.Y.0004.150202T1700Z-150203T0500Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNO CK-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...
REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK ...CATONSVILLE...
ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...
ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...
ABERDEEN...CHARLOTTESVILLE...CULPEPER...MANASSAS. ..
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG...LEESBURG...ASHBURN
423 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SCATTERED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. DIFFICULTY
DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. SECURE OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND TAKE CARE DRIVING HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
454 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-06 6>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-C ARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-C OBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOU GLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORD ON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY -HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMP KIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGA N-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY- SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR- TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WA LTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX -WILKES-
WILKINSON-
454 AM EST MON FEB 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ABOVE 1500
FEET. ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY 0.5 INCHES OR LESS. PATCHY BLACK ICE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD BLOW
AROUND LOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS AND MAY BRING DOWN TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MID WEEK WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN
OR SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE. RESIDENTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS
FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.


$$
Finished January with 2.28" at my house. Tampa reporting station totaled 1.75".
Quoting 526. tampabaymatt:

Finished January with 2.28" at my house. Tampa reporting station totaled 1.75".
Maybe we get some rain today matt huh
heavy snow in east haven right now
Quoting tampabaymatt:
Finished January with 2.28" at my house. Tampa reporting station totaled 1.75".


That's a decent amount of rain for January.

Down here in S.W. Fl.
.57" in Fort Myers
.10" in Naples
Phil has seen his shadow, so six more weeks of winter it will be.


more snow coming
we could see a rare event if this low pressure off of florida materializes next week. good surf for south florida
Quoting 532. islander101010:

we could see a rare event if this low pressure off of florida materializes next week. good surf for south florida


Euro has very strong storm just off the east coast of FL bringing heavy rains with 40 to 60 mph winds from Cape Canaveral up to Jacksonville. GFS does not show this but its ensembles do so will see how this materializes this week. Not only heavy rains across FL but heavy snow as well across Jacksonville up to Wilmington.

Quoting islander101010:
we could see a rare event if this low pressure off of florida materializes next week. good surf for south florida


I'm surprised that low (Blizzard of 2015) from last week didn't push a swell down into South Florida from the north.
I've caught some really good waves (clean - chest to head high ground swell) in the West Palm Beach areas with similar setups.

Quoting 529. Sfloridacat5:



That's a decent amount of rain for January.

Down here in S.W. Fl.
.57" in Fort Myers
.10" in Naples


Don't worry February is going to be wet infact this week most areas will likely pick up close to what they normally see for the whole month of February.
Good for Carolinas too, especially SE NC coast. Normally the L's don't get cranking until about Hatteras northward. Hopefully not too cold here.

Probably could get to New Smyrna in 6 hours, but I'm not a single rover anymore, so hoping for something closer to home.

Quoting 532. islander101010:

we could see a rare event if this low pressure off of florida materializes next week. good surf for south florida
The ongoing snowstorm is currently the 3rd largest on record for Detroit and the 5th largest storm on record for Chicago. I guess I should start on a Wikipedia article when I get home.
That would be wild.

Quoting 533. StormTrackerScott:



Euro has very strong storm just off the east coast of FL bringing heavy rains with 40 to 60 mph winds from Cape Canaveral up to Jacksonville. GFS does not show this but its ensembles do so will see how this materializes this week. Not only heavy rains across FL but heavy snow as well across Jacksonville up to Wilmington.




my local area
Quoting 534. Sfloridacat5:



I'm surprised that low (Blizzard of 2015) from last week didn't push a swell down into South Florida from the north.
I've caught some really good waves (clean - chest to head high ground swell) in the West Palm Beach areas with similar setups.




Euro has its own version of the Blizzard of 2015 except its for the SE Coast. Don't think this will happen but this will have to be watched this week as the Euro is really kicking up the winds with this system. GFS doesn't show this at all so we will see.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Don't worry February is going to be wet infact this week most areas will likely pick up close to what they normally see for the whole month of February.


All that matters is that Southern Florida gets a good soaking.
With the exception of parts of the western Panhandle, the rest of Florida doesn't need the rain.

But late this week looks to be the best chance of rain we've had in a long time. I just hope the S.W. Florida rain shield doesn't find a way to mess things up.
yea the boss of new york was banking on the euro too.
Quoting 544. islander101010:

yea the boss of new york was banking on the euro too.


Yeah I agree the Euro has a tendency to really boost up these Winter Storms. Euro could very well drop[ this on its next run but interesting to look at though.
My guess is that it blew up too far north, and it was too close to the coast. Did check Hatteras cam while the storm was centered near Long Island. Hatteras was getting solid swell (not as big as I expected) and probably blocking most from reaching FL.

I didn't hear any reports from PR, but I assume probably good.

Hope you get some rain.

Quoting 534. Sfloridacat5:



I'm surprised that low (Blizzard of 2015) from last week didn't push a swell down into South Florida from the north.
I've caught some really good waves (clean - chest to head high ground swell) in the West Palm Beach areas with similar setups.


Quoting 545. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah I agree the Euro has a tendency to really boost up these Winter Storms. Euro could very well drop[ this on its next run but interesting to look at though.


I was through your area this weekend, but mostly in Palm Coast. I can attest to the high water levels in that area. The lakes in Palm Coast and New Smyrna Beach were extremely high for this time of the year.
Quoting 469. whitewabit:



Six more weeks of winter whether a shadow is seen tomorrow or not !!
Sometimes our Springs come early depending on the pattern.Wouldn't be surprised if it did this year.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
My guess is that it blew up too far north, and it was too close to the coast. Did check Hatteras cam while the storm was centered near Long Island. Hatteras was getting solid swell (not as big as I expected) and probably blocking most from reaching FL.

I didn't hear any reports from PR, but I assume probably good.

Hope you get some rain.



Not sure. I'd have to go back and see what the surf was like.
What's interesting about storms off the N.E. coast is the surf is usually bigger in Florida than it is from points south of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia.

Florida sticks out and catches a north swell better than the S.E. states.

You also need a swell coming down almost directly from the north to get a swell down into southern Florida (West Palm Beach to Miami). The Bahamas block practically everything from getting down into far S. Florida except a north swell.
Yup, big wave shadow from a NE or N swell for NC south of Hatteras, SC, GA. Best swell for SE NC is tropical activity south and east, or big S,SE, ESE or E windswell; hopefully followed by light offshores.

Quoting 549. Sfloridacat5:



Not sure. I'd have to go back and see what the surf was like.
What's interesting about storms off the N.E. coast is the surf is usually bigger in Florida than it is from points south of Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia.

Florida sticks out and catches a north swell better than the S.E. states.

You also need a swell coming down almost directly from the north to get a swell down into southern Florida (West Palm Beach to Miami). The Bahamas block practically everything from getting down into far S. Florida except a north swell.
East Coast of Florida forecast for Saturday.

SURF
Head high ENE ground swell in the morning with occasional 1-3' overhead high sets. This drops into the chest to head range for the afternoon.
CONDITIONS

Light sideshore texture in the morning with N winds 5-10mph. Semi glassy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting NNE less than 5mph.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 548. washingtonian115:

Sometimes our Springs come early depending on the pattern.Wouldn't be surprised if it did this year.


I concur. Spring here (as in things start greening, and early spring flowers appear) starts in the first days of March in DC metro.