WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

What Do the Latest Climate Assessments Tell Us about Nor’easters?

By: Bob Henson 4:00 PM GMT on January 29, 2015

An ever-lengthening procession of winter storms has marched across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the last few years. Even their names have grown more prolific and colorful, from Snowmaggedon of January 2010 to this week’s Blizzard of 2015, also known as Winter Storm Juno. Do these monikers imply the storms themselves are getting more fierce? The naming trend can be explained largely by the demands of social media. However, recent overviews of national and global climate indicate that, as a whole, the most intense rainstorms and snowstorms in the Northeast U.S. are growing even more intense. Our understanding of a warmer climate with wetter extremes arises from both observations of past trends and model-based projections of future climate. It’s also supported by basic physics: in a warmer global environment, more water vapor evaporates from oceans and lakes, where it can be steered into rain- and snow-producing storms.

The most recent findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change appear in its fifth major assessment, released in 2013-14. According to Chapter 2 of the Working Group 1 report, many parts of the world are reporting more frequent and intense bouts of extreme precipitation over the last few decades, though a few areas (such as western Asia and southern Australia) are bucking the trend. Notably, the IPCC found that “evidence is most compelling for increases in heavy precipitation in North America, Central America and Europe.” (FAQ 2.2, p. 218). The report also confirms earlier findings that the Northern Hemisphere jet stream continues a long-term poleward migration. That trend is widely expected to continue in the next several decades, though not all studies agree.

Within the United States, the region where nor’easters prowl is also where we find the most pronounced turn toward extreme rainfall and snowfall. The most comprehensive report to date on our nation’s climate is the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment, released early in 2014. It found that the trend toward intensified precipitation is stronger in the Northeast than in any other part of the country (Fig. 2.18 in the report, and Figure 1 above). For the period 1958 – 2012, this region saw a 71% increase in the amount of precipitation that fell on the wettest 1% of all days. “In the mid-latitudes, where most of the continental U.S. is located, there is an upward trend in extreme precipitation in the vicinity of fronts associated with mid-latitude storms,” noted the report. “Projections of future climate over the U.S. suggest that the recent trend towards increased heavy precipitation events will continue. This is projected to occur even in regions where total precipitation is projected to decrease, such as the Southwest.” (full report, Chapter 2, p. 37).



Figure 1. The map shows percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012 for each region of the continental United States. These trends are larger than natural variations for the Northeast, Midwest, Puerto Rico, Southeast, Great Plains, and Alaska. The trends are not larger than natural variations for the Southwest, Hawai‘i, and the Northwest. The changes shown in this figure are calculated from the beginning and end points of the trends for 1958 to 2012. Image credit: U.S. National Climate Assessment, Fig. 2.18.


For a more specific take on U.S. trends in heavy snow, we can call on a 2013 paper led by Ken Kunkel (NOAA/North Carolina State University) that appeared in the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society (BAMS). It uses the recently developed Regional Snow Index, a spinoff of the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale that ranks snowfalls by depth and coverage and by the population of affected areas. Kunkel and a large set of collaborators analyzed the 50 strongest snowstorms observed from 1900-01 to 2009-10 in each of six climate regions east of the Rockies. Among the six regions, the Northeast (see Figure 2) saw the second-greatest increase (13%) in the number of extreme snowstorms per decade across the century-plus period. Overall, said the report, “the greater number of extreme storms in recent decades is consistent with other findings of recent increases in heavier and more widespread snowstorms.”




Figure 2. Number of extreme snowstorms (top 10% of all snowstorms, 1900 - 2010) occurring each decade within the six U.S. climate regions in the central and eastern U.S., based on an analysis of the 50 strongest storms for each of the six climate regions from Oct 1900 to Apr 2010. Shown in the map for each region are (left) temperature and (right) precipitation trends, calculated as departures from the 20th-century average for all snow seasons in which each storm occurred. Snow seasons are defined as Dec–Mar for the South and Southeast regions and Nov–Apr for the other four regions. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2013, BAMS/American Meteorological Society.


Given the potential for disaster inherent in the worst winter storms, even a 13% increase in their frequency could pack a notable punch. As evident in Figure 2, however, there is sharp variability from decade to decade in the frequency of such extreme snowstorms, something that should come as no surprise to any longtime weather observer. Which brings us back to the last decade and its bumper crop of Northeastern storms. At New York City’s Central Park, five of the 10 biggest storm-total snowfalls on record have occurred since 2000; in Boston, it’s four of the top 10, and in Washington, three of the top 10. This 21st-century onslaught could be related to the longer-term boost provided to extreme rains and snows by a warming planet, as well as a shorter-term jump in the frequency of Northeast storms related to cycles in global and regional climate. In addition, a growing amount of research suggests that Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss could be influencing jet-stream behavior and fostering outbreaks of cold and snow in North America and Eurasia (see the subsection "Is the jet stream getting weird?" in this Jeff Masters post from last November). Variations in snow-measuring practice over time may also play a role in local trends and records, although these can generally be factored out of broader-scale studies. For example, the study above led by Kunkel drew on a subset of U.S. reporting stations where confidence in the long-term quality of snow reports was highest.

And finally, the latest version of a query that can never be answered with razor-sharp precision: to what extent was the Blizzard of 2015 a product of climate change? All storms are now unfolding in a warmer, moister global climate. To get the closest thing to a quantitative answer on this particular storm, you would need to carry out an “attribution” study, using computer models to simulate the storm with and without such factors as the warmer-than-normal North Atlantic ocean temperatures that helped fuel the blizzard. Such studies have shown that events such as the deadly European heat wave of 2003 and Russian heat wave of 2010 became considerably more likely in a greenhouse-warmed climate. For the last three years, BAMS has released special reports, each featuring a set of attribution studies on extreme events from the previous year. The BAMS report on 2013 analyzed a violent midlatitude storm in Germany and Denmark, with inconclusive results. To my knowledge, no attribution work has yet been done specifically on nor’easters. Friederike Otto (University of Oxford) has put together an informal writeup explaining how attribution studies are carried out, using England’s destructive flooding of 2000–01 as an example.

Bob Henson

Nor'Easter winter weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr. Henson.

From the previous blog,

GFS 12z very consistent with it's previous runs. Excellent hit for the Ohio Valley and even better for the Mid-Atlantic. About as good as it gets.

Quoting 1. Drakoen:

Thanks Mr. Henson.

From the previous blog,

GFS 12z very consistent with it's previous runs. Excellent hit for the Ohio Valley and even better for the Mid-Atlantic. About as good as it gets.
Only back to back consistent runs, it still had two open waves 24 hours ago.  Still awaiting Friday afternoon before I get too excited about snow prospects here for Sunday.
Quoting 2. ILwthrfan:


Only back to back consistent runs, it still had two open waves 24 hours ago.  Still awaiting Friday afternoon before I get too excited about snow prospects here for Sunday.



I don't blame you. It's hard not get a little excited though.
Quoting 1. Drakoen:

Thanks Mr. Henson.

From the previous blog,

GFS 12z very consistent with it's previous runs. Excellent hit for the Ohio Valley and even better for the Mid-Atlantic. About as good as it gets.
How about New England? Mostly the Strip between I-95 Worcester most hard hit by the Blizzard
Quoting 4. Methurricanes:

How about New England? Mostly the Strip between I-95 Worcester most hard hit by the Blizzard


Looks like light snows there. Sharp cut-off to the North.
Thanks Doc.
Boston has had a remarkable upturn in the number of big storms since 1993 -- 5 of the top 7 and 10 of the top 17 storms on record have been in this 23 winter period, which amounts to less than 20% of the record in Boston. Also, 5 of the top 7 winter totals have been during this span. I've been tracking this on this writeup.
I'd like to see more discussion of the statement that the Northern Jet Stream is migrating further North -- how is that determined? Is the average of latitude between the northern and southern extremes of the more tortuous loops we've been seeing recently what is measured, or the latitude of the northern extremes, or what? I believe the temperature effect of the jet stream may have migrated South, though probably very slightly and maybe only regionally -- we certainly are seeing a reduction of temperatures here in Costa Rica as a result, I believe, of the extreme loops that have been getting stuck over Eastern North America.

Also, is there any way to plot the data derived from dendrochronology on maps, to get a sense of how the shifts in rainfall, for example, might have played out geographically?
Some great information and data here, Mr. Henson. Thanks for the entry.

In other news, the latest drought figures are in, and it's more bad news (as expected) for California.

Nearly 40% of the state is suffering through Exceptional Drought conditions (D4, the highest possible level). Compared to this time a year ago, when California was just over 8% D4, and coupled with the fact that we are supposed to be enjoying the wet season, makes me cringe at what to expect over the "summer." How many years of D4 conditions can California withstand?



And selfishly, just when I was really starting to get into Californian Cabernet....
Quoting 5. Drakoen:



Looks like light snows there. Sharp cut-off to the North.
I remember a storm of March Last year, there was suppose to be only 4-6 inches in and north of the Boston Area, but a strong east/eastnorth east wind by a strong storm to the south pushed 18 inches of ocean effect into Boston points north, Considering the temperature difference between the Ocean and the really cold air over New England Sun-Sun night, Ocean enhancement in eastern MA/Seacoast of NH seems possible.
More Snow, Cold in Midwest, Northeast From Pair of Systems Through Groundhog Day



more snow coming
System #1: An Alberta Clipper
Wednesday and Wednesday night, a somewhat moisture-starved "Alberta Clipper" cold front advanced out of central Canada into the western Great Lakes, dropping snow, and a little light sleet, freezing drizzle and freezing rain. Patchy icy stretches lead to some slideoffs on Interstate 94 near Warrens, Wisconsin early Thursday morning.

It is this particular clipper that is anticipated to quickly move into the interior Northeast on Thursday, spreading a blanket of light snow from northern Michigan to western and central New York to the Appalachians through Thursday evening. Generally speaking, you'll need to shovel this snow, but it won't be impactful enough for widespread business and school closures.

However, it becomes more interesting in New England starting Friday.

Low pressure will wrap up off Cape Cod late Friday into early Saturday. While the surface low won't be nearly as strong as Winter Storm Juno, this wrapping low will wring out an area of heavy snow on its northwest flank over parts of northern New England - particularly over the state of Maine - during this time period.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for the entire state of Maine. Winds gusting up to 40 mph Friday night into Saturday could reduce visibilities, and drifting snow could add to dangerous travel in this area.

Some north shore locations and northern suburbs of Boston may see a bit more snow, if those snowbands wrap sufficiently far enough south. Ocean-enhanced snow may persist in parts of Cape Cod through Saturday.

Outside of those areas, this looks again like a nuisance snow on the order of 3 inches or less for most of southern New England, the Lower Hudson Valley (New York City metro) and points south.
Quoting 9. LongIslandBeaches:

Some great information and data here, Mr. Henson. Thanks for the entry.

In other news, the latest drought figures are in, and it's more bad news (as expected) for California.

Nearly 40% of the state is suffering through Exceptional Drought conditions (D4, the highest possible level). Compared to this time a year ago, when California was just over 8% D4, and coupled with the fact that we are supposed to be enjoying the wet season, makes me cringe at what to expect over the "summer." How many years of D4 conditions can California withstand?



And selfishly, just when I was really starting to get into Californian Cabernet....
Quoting 9. LongIslandBeaches:

Some great information and data here, Mr. Henson. Thanks for the entry.

In other news, the latest drought figures are in, and it's more bad news (as expected) for California.

Nearly 40% of the state is suffering through Exceptional Drought conditions (D4, the highest possible level). Compared to this time a year ago, when California was just over 8% D4, and coupled with the fact that we are supposed to be enjoying the wet season, makes me cringe at what to expect over the "summer." How many years of D4 conditions can California withstand?



And selfishly, just when I was really starting to get into Californian Cabernet....


A friend of mine sells and distributes wine in the Southeast for a winery based in Santa Barbara. He was just laid off last week because the winery is drastically cutting production. Towards the end of his tenure there, he would tell me stories about how insanely deep they had to drill to get to any water. Not only is there a historic and far reaching drought affecting the state, but the demand is growing more and more each day. At some point, the government is going to have to step in and begin some sort of rationing program, which will devastate the California economy. A sad situation all around.
apologies for the double quote
Great Blog Mr. Henson and re-posting my comment on the jet from this morning. It does make sense that warmer SST's, on the Atlantic side of the equation, could contribute some more "snow punch" to winter season Nor'Easters, or other lows riding the Eastern Seaboard, due the temperature differentials and baroclinic aspects related thereto. The same issue could be said of the Spring severe weather threat in the MS Delta (mid-west) and northern Gulf coast. If Gulf SST's do not cool off significantly during the Winter, and temps remain relatively high due to a milder winter for the Gulf, that much warmer inland Gulf flow, could really contribute to a more severe tornadic threat if a Pacific or Canadian low sweeps down into the warmer air mass (typical pattern southern trajectories that we might see in a solid El Nino Winter for the South).

It's a complex mix of several factors in play as we try to understand what is "really" going on at the moment during this present climate change event and how the weather responds.


Winter storms are a normal part of "winter" and the impacts of Juno notwithstanding, I think that one of the other notable weather stories of the last few days has been the record warm in parts of the Mid-West. Pretty amazing watching TWC last night with the record highs for the day for part of Kansas (and other areas) of 78 degrees in the dead of winter. 

Those jet stream kinks are something to keep an eye on in the coming decades in a climate change environment. As I have noted over the years, tree rings and earth core samples, have confirmed and given us a pretty good idea of past cooling and warming events on Earth but we don't have a clue what the jet stream looked like in the past (before the modern satt era). Seems to me that all past climate changes events have been accompanied by jet stream patterns that may have been similar to some of the patterns we are currently starting to experience.
Thanks for the blog Mr. Henson!
GFS 12z has 8-9 inches in DC a lot of it during Monday morning rush hour commute.
12Z GFS has really backed off on rain totals for FL in the short term.
thanks for the new blog...a change happened this winter for central florida alright...we did not get a real dry season which its supposed to be right now...it seems we do get rain just about every week,which is unusual for this time of year.
What are the climate projections for the Southeast USA?

Forecasting weather and climate is not an exact science. Projections of climate change are based on climate models, which are complex computer programs that attempt to describe how the atmosphere will behave through time in response to the forces that act upon it. The computer models try to mimic how climate variables might respond to greenhouse gases and other projected results of human activities over the next 100 years. According to the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), these models indicate that global average surface temperatures may rise from 3°F to 7°F by the year 2099.

History has shown that global increases in temperature are not evenly distributed. For this reason, one cannot simply add 3°F to 7°F to existing temperatures in the Southeast for an idea of future climate. More importantly, a changing climate will likely not affect just the average temperature, but also the occurrence of extreme events and the variability of temperature over time and space. So far, we do not yet know whether droughts, floods, heat waves, freezes, or storms will become more or less frequent.

Another impact of climate change is on the height of the sea level. As average global ocean temperatures increase, ocean water expands and sea levels rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea level will to rise from 8 to 23 inches by 2099. In the Southeast, sea level has risen steadily over the last 100 years at a rate of 8.5 inches per century with no apparent acceleration.

To summarize, the climate of the Southeast is likely to change in the next decades. While the extent of these changes is subject of intense debate, we need to prepare for the challenges posed by climate change by becoming a more efficient society, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, identifying vulnerable sectors of society, and developing adaptation strategies.
Keeping my eye on the Feb 5-7 period. The GFS is showing a messy phase for now, but that could change in future runs.

The magic of Bright Banding.

Maybe a severe thunderstorm warning?.............. JK
Thanks for the blog Mr. Henson!


Absolutely perfect day in Tampa. High of 70 degrees without a cloud in the sky.
Thanks for the New Post Mr. Henson,


The area of D1 drought in SW FL has begun to expand.
Quoting rlk:
Boston has had a remarkable upturn in the number of big storms since 1993 -- 5 of the top 7 and 10 of the top 17 storms on record have been in this 23 winter period, which amounts to less than 20% of the record in Boston. Also, 5 of the top 7 winter totals have been during this span. I've been tracking this on this writeup.


Probably just coincidence. Or global cooling. Perhaps someone manipulated records. Maybe it's a leftist conspiracy.
The Brazilian drought around Sao Paulo makes what California look like nothing. The government down there may implementing a two days on, five days off rationing for 20 million people to avoid a complete collapse of the water system.
There was a story about well drillers in CA on NPR over the summer. They are basically working 24/7 and a huge backlog of work.

I had high hopes for this winter in CA. Not looking too good at the moment.

Quoting 14. tampabaymatt:



A friend of mine sells and distributes wine in the Southeast for a winery based in Santa Barbara. He was just laid off last week because the winery is drastically cutting production. Towards the end of his tenure there, he would tell me stories about how insanely deep they had to drill to get to any water. Not only is there a historic and far reaching drought affecting the state, but the demand is growing more and more each day. At some point, the government is going to have to step in and begin some sort of rationing program, which will devastate the California economy. A sad situation all around.
ECMWF 12z and GFS 12z are pretty much on top of each other. Great run for the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Preparing the chips...
Quoting 27. tampabaymatt:



The area of D1 drought in SW FL has begun to expand.
yes but come summer and the tropical storms they catch up some..
..Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 9 PM EST this evening...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain...sleet and snow which is in effect until 9 PM EST this evening.

* Precipitation type...snow...sleet and freezing rain.

* Accumulations...snow and sleet accumulation less than one inch. Ice accumulation from a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.

* Timing...this afternoon and early evening. The best chance for freezing rain will be between 3 PM and 8 PM this afternoon and evening.

* Temperatures...in the lower 30s.

* Winds...south 5 to 10 mph with gusts around 15 mph.

* Impacts...untreated roads and sidewalks may become icy. There is the potential for hazardous travel during the evening rush.
Looks like the clipper is blowing up as it gets closer to D.C and temps underperformed some in the D.C area.
Quoting 32. LargoFl:

yes but come summer and the tropical storms they catch up some..


Most likely, yes. The summer of 2013 they got tons of rain, but summer of 2014 they were something like 12 or 13 inches below normal for rainfall. I might have the exact number wrong, but it was way below average for summer. Meanwhile, Tampa had it’s rainiest year in the last 7 years in 2014.
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:


Winter storms are a normal part of "winter" and the impacts of Juno notwithstanding, I think that one of the other notable weather stories of the last few days has been the record warm in parts of the Mid-West. Pretty amazing watching TWC last night with the record highs for the day for part of Kansas (and other areas) of 78 degrees in the dead of winter.br style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(30, 32, 35); font-family: verb, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">br style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(30, 32, 35); font-family: verb, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px;">Those jet stream kinks are something to keep an eye on in the coming decades in a climate change environment. As I have noted over the years, tree rings and earth core samples, have confirmed and given us a pretty good idea of past cooling and warming events on Earth but we don't have a clue what the jet stream looked like in the past (before the modern satt era). Seems to me that all past climate changes events have been accompanied by jet stream patterns that may have been similar to some of the patterns we are currently starting to experience.


One large variable from past climate change is the rate of change that is upon us. That the rate of change of change is not so comparatively rapid compared to past changes, means by it very nature the climate is currently far further from "equilibrium" than is ever was in past much slower climate changes. So even if we know what the past jet stream configurations were during past changes, they would not truly capture today's conditions, or the conditions of the foreseeable future due to the system as a being much further from equilibrium any particular point in time.
Quoting 35. tampabaymatt:



Most likely, yes. The summer of 2013 they got tons of rain, but summer of 2014 they were something like 12 or 13 inches below normal for rainfall. I might have the exact number wrong, but it was way below average for summer. Meanwhile, Tampa had it’s rainiest year in the last 7 years in 2014.
im really watching this coming hurricane season..something weather wise has changed matt...could be this is our year..we'll see what happens huh.
As good as it gets

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
109 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

MDZ003-502-VAZ028-031-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-3000 00-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-150130T0000Z/
WASHINGTON-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-
EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY
109 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.
ICE ACCUMULATION FROM A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 1 PM AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY BECOME ICY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING RUSH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
AT BEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID STATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND IT...AS WELL AS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND
UPPER CUMBERLAND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN NASHVILLE.

$$
Quoting 30. HaoleboySurfEC:

There was a story about well drillers in CA on NPR over the summer. They are basically working 24/7 and a huge backlog of work.

I had high hopes for this winter in CA. Not looking too good at the moment.


Yep, the overworked well drillers in CA are contributing to the problem big time by facilitating the heavy water users to further drain the deep aquifer, which can't be replenished readily, or at all -- it's fossil water left from the assembling of California. So when it's gone, and the Sierra doesn't get the snow it used to, where's California's water going to come from? Rain and captured debris flows?
Quoting 29. tlawson48:

The Brazilian drought around Sao Paulo makes what California look like nothing. The government down there may implementing a two days on, five days off rationing for 20 million people to avoid a complete collapse of the water system.


Last time I checked, the main reservoir for Sao Paolo had just 5% of its capacity remaining . Assuming it runs dry, it's hard to see what they can do about it. It'll cost a fortune to ship enough bottled water for the population of 12 million, but what else can they do? Nightmare scenario. There will probably be a lot of lawlessness.
Thank you, Mr. Henson, for this very informative and carefully done blog entry (which even mentions my country Germany :-)

Speaking of precipitation, here some unfortunately bad news from the southern hemisphere:

Severe floods and mudslides in Peru
BBC weather video, 29 January 2015 Last updated at 16:22
Peru has declared a state of emergency in a part of the Amazon rainforest after heavy rains caused mudslides and severe flooding. BBC Weather's Peter Gibbs reports.
Quoting 41. CaneFreeCR:

Yep, the overworked well drillers in CA are contributing to the problem big time by facilitating the heavy water users to further drain the deep aquifer, which can't be replenished readily, or at all -- it's fossil water left from the assembling of California. So when it's gone, and the Sierra doesn't get the snow it used to, where's California's water going to come from? Rain and captured debris flows?



Desalination? I don't think they'll be up and running with that for years to come. It's really a dire situation.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Most likely, yes. The summer of 2013 they got tons of rain, but summer of 2014 they were something like 12 or 13 inches below normal for rainfall. I might have the exact number wrong, but it was way below average for summer. Meanwhile, Tampa had it%u2019s rainiest year in the last 7 years in 2014.


Yeah, here in Fort Myers we're 15" (14.88" to be exact) below normal since January 2014 (13.49" for 2014 and 1.35" for Jan. 2015)

im really watching this coming hurricane season..something weather wise has changed matt...could be this is our year..we'll see what happens huh.


yep largo....cat 5 headin your way....hunker down....hunker down
Quoting 30. HaoleboySurfEC:

There was a story about well drillers in CA on NPR over the summer. They are basically working 24/7 and a huge backlog of work.

I had high hopes for this winter in CA. Not looking too good at the moment.



That means they are just pumping out the ever-dwindling water supplies even faster...
Quoting 34. washingtonian115:

Looks like the clipper is blowing up as it gets closer to D.C and temps underperformed some in the D.C area.
ITS BETTER NOT GOING TO THE NORTHEAST
Lower humidity values have increased the observed fire danger across many areas of Fl.
Just my effin luck -_-.Euro shows 10 and GFS shows 9.I hate nature.
Quoting 50. washingtonian115:

Just my effin luck -_-.Euro shows 10 and GFS shows 9.I hate nature.


Lock it in.
Another 6-10" forecast here on Casco Bay, Friday early a.m through Sat. a.m.

Whew, I was worried we'd run out of snow.
.HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SAT AND SUN...
...FRONTAL ZONE SINKING SOUTHWARD...
...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY SAT WHICH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY A BIT
MORE THROUGH SUN INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE MEANWHILE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
EITHER OVER THE LOWER OR MID MS VALLEY.

THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUES ITS THEME OF PREVIOUS RUNS IN BEING MORE
AMPLIFIED...BUT IT HAS TRENDED A BIT FLATTER...AND TOWARD THE
FLATTER GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE VERY
WELL CLUSTERED AROUND A FLATTER SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS ON SUN.
THE 12Z NAM AND
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GEM ARE A BIT SHARPER AND SLOWER...BUT NO WHERE
AS STRONG AS THE UKMET. THE WELL CLUSTERED GFS/ECMWF CAMP DEVELOP
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUN WHICH MOVES TO
THE TN VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE NAM HAS THE SAME IDEA...EXCEPT
IT IS STRONGER/SLOWER LOW AND A BIT NORTH OF THE GFS/ECMWF LOW
TRACKS. THE UKMET FOCUSES A DEEPER LOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY TOT HE UPPER OH VALLEY. THE GEM IS SO SLOW WITH THE
ENERGY ALOFT...THAT IT ONLY HAS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION BY LATE
SUN OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN FAVORS A SLIGHTLY
FASTER VERSION OF THE GFS. BASED ON SUCH STRONG AGREEMENT AND WITH
SUPPORTING TRENDS TOWARD A RELATIVELY FLATTER EVOLUTION...A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED.
Quoting 14. tampabaymatt:



A friend of mine sells and distributes wine in the Southeast for a winery based in Santa Barbara. He was just laid off last week because the winery is drastically cutting production. Towards the end of his tenure there, he would tell me stories about how insanely deep they had to drill to get to any water. Not only is there a historic and far reaching drought affecting the state, but the demand is growing more and more each day. At some point, the government is going to have to step in and begin some sort of rationing program, which will devastate the California economy. A sad situation all around.


I live in Sacramento and we started rationing in the Summer of 2014. As it stands we are still only allowed to water our yards once a week…during the "wet" season…and there is a need to water. Honestly, if I could, I'd leave the state. The Government last Summer wanted a collective 20% drop in water usage from the previous year, we hit 14% and that wasn't enough. People were getting fined a LOT of money for watering their yards on incorrect days or watering to the point that you have standing water or run off. It was bad last year, I'm terrified of this year.
Quoting 50. washingtonian115:

Just my effin luck -_-.Euro shows 10 and GFS shows 9.I hate nature.
Nature is always up to it's tricks.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Desalination? I don't think they'll be up and running with that for years to come. It's really a dire situation.
In the long run, there are only two answers. The first is a drastic decrease in population due to pandemic disease, war, or genocide. Since none of those is a preferable solution, the only other answer is desalination. As supplies of terrestrial fresh water continue to decrease, the price will keep going up. That makes desalination a viable alternative. You can bring desalination plants online pretty quickly. The Saudis have constructed (or had built, since it was all done by outside companies) several large desal projects that took less than two year from start to finish. It only takes money and lots of it. It also takes a system that won't hold up a project for many years for permits. The biggest one in California was planned in 2007, didn't get the needed permits until 2011, started construction in 2012 but won't finish until 2016, although that date has slipped several times, mostly because of continuing environmental issues. As you might imagine, that doesn't make water from that plant any cheaper.

There is a third alternative - make better use of the water we have. Conservation, better regulation of agricultural and residential water, and getting the man or woman on the street to understand using tertiary waste water to replace fresh water will save them lots of money in the sort run. So far, that effort hasn't been very successful.
Cannot withstand (as often, lol) to give a little insight into current European weather, because it's really interesting right now. Pressure at my place in Germany near Frankfurt just dropped below 980hPA which is a quite rare thing.


Click to enlarge. Source meteociel.fr.

Culprit is the huge trough with low "Mischka", digging deep into the south and carrying multiple vortices in its big belly which cause some lively weather events including showers of snow and even lightning. Here a saved loop of current airmasses:






Estofex has issued warnings especially for the Mediterranean Sea:

Storm Forecast, Valid: Fri 30 Jan 2015 06:00 to Sat 31 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Thu 29 Jan 2015 15:38, Forecaster: TUSCHY
Numerous level 2 areas were issued for parts of the CNTRL-Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.
Numerous level 1 areas were issued for SW France, parts of Portugal, Spain and the W/CNTRL Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain, isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.
SYNOPSIS
A large vortex is centered over Denmark. Numerous smaller-scale vortices rotate around that feature and bring unsettled conditions for most of Europe.
DISCUSSION
Low geopotential heights, cold mid-levels and hence rather steep lapse rates result in widespread low to moderate offshore CAPE build-up. A huge lightning area was issued for active marine convection. Strongest storms bring marginal hail and gusty winds.
Focus for severe will be southbound moving cold-front over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean during the daytime hours. Impressive low-tropospheric prefrontal flow advects a moist and unstable air mass to the east and results in a prolonged period of convectively enhanced precipitation. Models agree in numerous QPF maxima over SW-Italy and along the E-Adriatic and Ionian Sea. Rainfall amounts in excess of 100 l/qm/24h are likely. S-Itlay may even see a gradually southward sagging MCS with an isolated tornado, large hail and severe wind gust risk. Another area with significant rain is forecast over N/NW-Spain, but QPF maxima keep the risk in a level 1 event. ...
More.

Here you can see the deeply bented polar jetsetream speeding over the Mediterranean on Saturday.


So probably some interesting weather videos from the Mediterranean are to be expected; hopefully nobody suffers any harm from the weather though.


Surface analysis from this afternoon. Click to enlarge.

Quoting 56. sar2401:

In the long run, there are only two answers. The first is a drastic decrease in population due to pandemic disease, war, or genocide. Since none of those is a preferable solution, the only other answer is desalination. As supplies of terrestrial fresh water continue to decrease, the price will keep going up. That makes desalination a viable alternative. You can bring desalination plants online pretty quickly. The Saudis have constructed (or had built, since it was all done by outside companies) several large desal projects that took less than two year from start to finish. It only takes money and lots of it. It also takes a system that won't hold up a project for many years for permits. The biggest one in California was planned in 2007, didn't get the needed permits until 2011, started construction in 2012 but won't finish until 2016, although that date has slipped several times, mostly because of continuing environmental issues. As you might imagine, that doesn't make water from that plant any cheaper.

There is a third alternative - make better use of the water we have. Conservation, better regulation of agricultural and residential water, and getting the man or woman on the street to understand using tertiary waste water to replace fresh water will save them lots of money in the sort run. So far, that effort hasn't been very successful.


For some reason, they built a desal plant in the Tampa area, and the thing was loaded with construction problems from the minute it broke ground. it took some insanely long time to be built and get up and running, so maybe that is skewing my judgment of the timetable. As Scott can tell you, we're not having any water issues here in C FL, so they're hardly using it, but I guess they wanted to have a back-up plan in case we ever go into drought.
Quoting Eeik5150:


I live in Sacramento and we started rationing in the Summer of 2014. As it stands we are still only allowed to water our yards once a week…during the "wet" season…and there is a need to water. Honestly, if I could, I'd leave the state. The Government last Summer wanted a collective 20% drop in water usage from the previous year, we hit 14% and that wasn't enough. People were getting fined a LOT of money for watering their yards on incorrect days or watering to the point that you have standing water or run off. It was bad last year, I'm terrified of this year.
You can if you really want to. I left in 2005 after living in California since 1967. The environmental and economic problems in California are only going to get worse. Unfortunately, the only wake up call for those in charge is when they release half the productive people have left and the other half are getting ready to leave. Leaving now is good for the environment of California and even better for your mental health. I live in Alabama now. It's vastly underpopulated compared to the available land area and resources are generally not a problem. You won't earn as much money but you won't have to spend as much either. If you could see the house I live in now and what I paid for it, you'd be reduced to tears. I miss the California weather but you can't have everything. Tracking tornadoes is a lot of fun (as long as they aren't headed toward your house) and you soon get used to the heat and humidity of summer. All it takes it commitment to want a better life and learning to live in a different culture, Oh, yeah, no earthquakes either. :-)
CARLSBAD -- On sunny afternoons, this stretch of beach 35 miles north of San Diego offers a classic So uthern California backdrop: joggers, palm trees and surfers, flanked by waves rolling in and pelicans soaring overhead.

But just across the road, another scene, unlike any other in the state's history, is playing out: More than 300 construction workers are digging trenches and assembling a vast network of pipes, tanks and high-tech equipment as three massive yellow cranes labor nearby.

The crews are building what boosters say represents California's best hope for a drought-proof water supply: the largest ocean desalination plant in the Western Hemisphere. The $1 billion project will provide 50 million gallons of drinking water a day for San Diego County when it opens in 2016.
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 11:55 AM EST on January 29, 2015
...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 am EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 am EST Saturday.

* Locations...Boston area and areas to the south of Boston. Includes Norfolk...Suffolk...and much of Plymouth County.

* Hazard types...snow.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches.

* Timing...snow develops around or just after midnight tonight and continues into Friday and Friday night. Most of the snow will be light...but a period of moderate snow is possible at times Friday afternoon and Friday night.

* Impacts...hazardous driving conditions due to snow covered roads. Poor visibilities possible Friday night as winds gust to 30 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when snow and/or ice is forecast to develop in the affected areas...but accumulations are expected to be light. Any snow or ice would result in slippery conditions on untreated roadways and sidewalks. When temperatures are below freezing...motorists need to be especially careful on bridges and overpasses where slippery spots can easily develop.

wow 3 to 5 inches maybe no school for the kids on friday
Quoting barbamz:
Cannot withstand (as often, lol) to give a little insight into current European weather, because it's really interesting right now. Pressure at my place in Germany near Frankfurt just dropped below 980hPA which is a quite rare thing.


Click to enlarge. Source meteociel.fr.

So probably some interesting weather videos from the Mediterranean are to be expected; hopefully nobody suffers any harm from the weather though.

Culprit is the huge trough with low "Mischka", digging deep into the south and carrying multiple vortices in its big belly which cause some lively weather events including showers of snow and even lightning. Here a saved loop of current airmasses:






Estofex has issued warnings especially for the Mediterranean Sea:

Storm Forecast, Valid: Fri 30 Jan 2015 06:00 to Sat 31 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Thu 29 Jan 2015 15:38, Forecaster: TUSCHY
Numerous level 2 areas were issued for parts of the CNTRL-Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.
Numerous level 1 areas were issued for SW France, parts of Portugal, Spain and the W/CNTRL Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain, isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.
SYNOPSIS
A large vortex is centered over Denmark. Numerous smaller-scale vortices rotate around that feature and bring unsettled conditions for most of Europe.
DISCUSSION
Low geopotential heights, cold mid-levels and hence rather steep lapse rates result in widespread low to moderate offshore CAPE build-up. A huge lightning area was issued for active marine convection. Strongest storms bring marginal hail and gusty winds.
Focus for severe will be southbound moving cold-front over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean during the daytime hours. Impressive low-tropospheric prefrontal flow advects a moist and unstable air mass to the east and results in a prolonged period of convectively enhanced precipitation. Models agree in numerous QPF maxima over SW-Italy and along the E-Adriatic and Ionian Sea. Rainfall amounts in excess of 100 l/qm/24h are likely. S-Itlay may even see a gradually southward sagging MCS with an isolated tornado, large hail and severe wind gust risk. Another area with significant rain is forecast over N/NW-Spain, but QPF maxima keep the risk in a level 1 event. ...
More.

Here you can see the deeply bented polar jetsetream speeding over the Mediterranean tomorrow.



Surface analysis from this afternoon. Click to enlarge.

Wowsers. 980 mb is really low. It looks like you're pretty close to the center of "Mischka" so I guess that's the cause. "Mischka" has a central pressure lower than our blizzard low, speaking of which, that one is headed your way too. What does he or she get named? That bent jet stream over Europe is a duplicate of our bent jet stream, so everything off the Atlantic coast from the Northeast US is going to head toward Europe. At least we all get to share in the fun. :-)
Eunice is now a category five hurricane.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIAMONDRA (07-20142015)
22:00 PM RET January 29 2015
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra (989 hPa) located at 21.9S 80.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots..

Gale Force Winds
==============
130 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 205 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM radius from the center, extending up to 210 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 220 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 260 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 23.0S 81.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 24.6S 83.2E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 26.8S 85.5E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 32.0S 90.1E - 35 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)

Additional Information
===================
During the past six hours, the convective pattern of Diamondra has become ragged. The 1601z ASCAT pass was useful to help to determine both center (quasi invisible on classical infrared imagery), intensity (max winds at 39 knots seen ... slightly lower than the overpass of this morning) and winds radii.

Diamondra should continue to track south eastwards under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge and a transient mid-level trough in its south. On this track, Diamondra should soon become a post-tropical depression before completing its extratropical transition later this weekend. The winds are expected to strengthen in the mid-latitudes general circulation.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE EUNICE (08-20142015)
22:00 PM RET January 29 2015
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice (915 hPa) located at 17.0S 67.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 75 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 85 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 145 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
185 NM radius from the center, extending up to 220 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0/7.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 18.5S 68.0E - 120 knots (Cyclone Tropical Trés Intense)
24 HRS 19.6S 68.9E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 20.8S 72.4E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 21.2S 78.5E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
===================
During the past six hours, Eunice has continued to strengthen and show now an impressive eye pattern with a 20 NM diameter fairly pure eye embedded within a smooth central dense overcast. At 1800z, raw DT averaged over 3 hrs is at 6.9 and is chosen as ft. Other Dvorak analysis are at 6.5 (110-115 kt 10 min winds) and 7.0 (120-125 kt 10 min winds). ADT seems to be biased towards lower values due to a poor center position this afternoon ... but during the last three hours raw DT range from 6.8 to 7.0.

Under the steering influence of the upper near-equatorial ridge, the system is expected to continue to track southeastward up to Saturday morning. On Friday, the upper equatorward divergence is forecast to become less good. But, thanks to the low vertical wind shear and a good poleward outflow, Eunice should remain its intensity. The shear is expected to increase Friday night (seen on 0600z outputs from the EC model).

From Saturday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to extend westward and a deep high to mid-level trough is expected to take place south of Eunice and should curve the track generally eastwards. The forward speed is expected to increase by that time within a fast westerly steering flow. Environmental conditions should continue to deteriorate slowly with the strengthening westerly wind shear (lower relative shear however) and also (mainly) some very low ocean heat contain south of 20.0S
Quoting 57. barbamz:

Cannot withstand (as often, lol) to give a little insight into current European weather, because it's really interesting right now. Pressure at my place in Germany near Frankfurt just dropped below 980hPA which is a quite rare thing.


The pressure has dropped down to 977 millibars here, and is still continuing to fall.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
6:00 AM FST January 30 2015
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 16.5S 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 7 knots. Position poor based on hr GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved in last 12 hours with primary band wrapping the system from the north. Convection has increased in last 12 hours with cloud tops cooling over primary bands. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extend to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperatures around 30C.

Global models have picked the system and move it eastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 16.4S 161.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 17.5S 161.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 17.8S 161.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Quoting tampabaymatt:


For some reason, they built a desal plant in the Tampa area, and the thing was loaded with construction problems from the minute it broke ground. it took some insanely long time to be built and get up and running, so maybe that is skewing my judgment of the timetable. As Scott can tell you, we're not having any water issues here in C FL, so they're hardly using it, but I guess they wanted to have a back-up plan in case we ever go into drought.
That's one advantage of a desal plant. It can sit there at a relatively low maintenance cost if it's not needed but it's ready to go when it is. The biggest hurdle for desal plant construction is permitting and then dealing with a myriad of environmental objections while the plant is being built. The biggest problems in Tampa were underfunded capital from private investors, poor technology, and multiple bankruptcies by subcontractors. The Tampa Bay plant is an unusually bad example for desal plants.
lol, formerly lived in South Paris/Bethel. I think the forecast is for an additional 8-13". It needs to last until Memorial Day...lol.

Quoting 52. islander44:

Another 6-10" forecast here on Casco Bay, Friday early a.m through Sat. a.m.

Whew, I was worried we'd run out of snow.


about northeast of Rodrigues Island
Quoting 62. sar2401:

Wowsers. 980 mb is really low. It looks like you're pretty close to the center of "Mischka" so I guess that's the cause. "Mischka" has a central pressure lower than our blizzard low, speaking of which, that one is headed your way too. What does he or she get named? That bent jet stream over Europe is a duplicate of our bent jet stream, so everything off the Atlantic coast from the Northeast US is going to head toward Europe. At least we all get to share in the fun. :-)

Well, Sar, I've tried to find out something about the European fate of your late Blizzard but I'm not skilled enough to spot something relevant left (Edit: Ah, now I see it in the left upper corner of the surface analysis, posted earlier, lol) and It's not mentioned in any professional analysis I've read, so it doesn't seem to be a big deal? Moreover there is the high in the Atlantic which is going to build a ridge further north, causing everything you guys will try to send to us from your northeastern Atlantic coast to make a large detour towards the north before being launched into poor Europe ;-)


Click to enlarge (source). In a large area from the Northern Sea between UK and Germany to the Baltic Sea pressure should drop in the wee hours of Saturday to 965 hPA as the center of the system moves south from its current place (with 960 hPA) near the Norwegian coast.
Quoting 61. hurricanes2018:

Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 11:55 AM EST on January 29, 2015
...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 am EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 am EST Saturday.

* Locations...Boston area and areas to the south of Boston. Includes Norfolk...Suffolk...and much of Plymouth County.

* Hazard types...snow.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches.

* Timing...snow develops around or just after midnight tonight and continues into Friday and Friday night. Most of the snow will be light...but a period of moderate snow is possible at times Friday afternoon and Friday night.

* Impacts...hazardous driving conditions due to snow covered roads. Poor visibilities possible Friday night as winds gust to 30 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when snow and/or ice is forecast to develop in the affected areas...but accumulations are expected to be light. Any snow or ice would result in slippery conditions on untreated roadways and sidewalks. When temperatures are below freezing...motorists need to be especially careful on bridges and overpasses where slippery spots can easily develop.

wow 3 to 5 inches maybe no school for the kids on friday
most of that is over night as the snow builds back as the clipper blows up over the gulf a Maine.
The main energy of the clipper does look like its south of the forecast though, may be heavier snow further south,
Quoting sar2401:
You can if you really want to. I left in 2005 after living in California since 1967. The environmental and economic problems in California are only going to get worse. Unfortunately, the only wake up call for those in charge is when they release half the productive people have left and the other half are getting ready to leave. Leaving now is good for the environment of California and even better for your mental health. I live in Alabama now. It's vastly underpopulated compared to the available land area and resources are generally not a problem. You won't earn as much money but you won't have to spend as much either. If you could see the house I live in now and what I paid for it, you'd be reduced to tears.
Let;s look at some comparative stats. Compared to California, Alabama has: a higher percentage of residents living below the poverty line, a higher percentage of residents considered unhealthy, a higher firearm death rate, a higher childhood death rate, higher rates of obesity, higher suicide rates, higher rates of teenage pregnancy. And so on.

Does that mean California is problem-free? Not by any stretch of the imagination. But by almost every social or economic metric, California is soaring while Alabama is in a death spiral. And a large part of California's success can be attributed to liberal regulatory and economic policies that have focused on helping all, not just the moneyed few.

Alabama is a fine state, to be sure. But I'll take the Golden State every time.

(For the record, yes, I have called both states home, and was in fact born and raised in California.)
Quoting 71. Neapolitan:

Let;s look at some comparative stats. Compared to California, Alabama has: a higher percentage of residents living below the poverty line, a higher percentage of residents considered unhealthy, a higher firearm death rate, a higher childhood death rate, higher rates of obesity, higher suicide rates, higher rates of teenage pregnancy. And so on.

Does that mean California is problem-free? Not by any stretch of the imagination. But by almost every social or economic metric, California is soaring while Alabama is in a death spiral. And a large part of California's success can be attributed to liberal regulatory and economic policies that have focused on helping all, not just the moneyed few.

Alabama is a fine state, to be sure. But I'll take the Golden State every time.

(For the record, yes, I have called both states home, and was in fact born and raised in California.)


Perhaps the fact that one of these states is running out of natural resources to support its population should factor into your comparison. I don’t think the intent was to compare California to Alabama specifically, but just to use an example of one person who successfully relocated. Unfortunately, the deep south is always going to have poverty issues.
So now a noreaster is a sign of climate change ? lol ok

Keep mentioning the top 10 warmest statistics and keep neglecting the top 10 coldest. It fits the agenda well
Northeastern MA is upgraded to a winter storm warning.
Forcast for Lawrence MA
Friday Snow. High near 36. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday Night Snow likely, mainly before 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -8. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible.
5-9 inches, decent storm, that city got 32 inches during the blizzard. probably over a foot in Maine
Quoting 71. Neapolitan:


You're really poking a hornet's nest posting that on this blog, lol. But I'm actually doing better here than I have in my adult life anywhere else(have also lived/worked in FL, TX, AZ). And considering I don't have a degree, that's pretty amazing(although maybe that makes me "unproductive"?). I am concerned about the drought, but it isn't like drought is something that can't happen literally anywhere.


Tampa Bay area
Quoting 77. Methurricanes:

Northeastern MA is upgraded to a winter storm warning.
Forcast for Lawrence MA
Friday Snow. High near 36. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday Night Snow likely, mainly before 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -8. Northwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible.
5-9 inches, decent storm, that city got 32 inches during the blizzard. probably over a foot in Maine




During Thursday morning and the early afternoon, a swath of snow and ice pushed southeastward from the Lower Peninsula of Michigan to part of Ohio, western Pennsylvania, southwest Ontario and western New York state.
Snow will extend into part of the Interstate-95 Northeast Thursday night and continue into Friday.
"Motorists along I-80, I-81, the Pennsylvania Turnpike and the New York Thruway should be prepared for a quick burst of snow that can lower the visibility and rapidly cover roads into Thursday evening."
For the I-95 mid-Atlantic from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia, showers of snow, sleet and rain can make for slippery spots.
Quoting 71. Neapolitan:

Let;s look at some comparative stats. Compared to California, Alabama has: a higher percentage of residents living below the poverty line, a higher percentage of residents considered unhealthy, a higher firearm death rate, a higher childhood death rate, higher rates of obesity, higher suicide rates, higher rates of teenage pregnancy. And so on.

Does that mean California is problem-free? Not by any stretch of the imagination. But by almost every social or economic metric, California is soaring while Alabama is in a death spiral. And a large part of California's success can be attributed to liberal regulatory and economic policies that have focused on helping all, not just the moneyed few.

Alabama is a fine state, to be sure. But I'll take the Golden State every time.

(For the record, yes, I have called both states home, and was in fact born and raised in California.)


How the heck is California "soaring"?
Quoting 76. Barkeep1967:

So now a noreaster is a sign of climate change ? lol ok

Keep mentioning the top 10 warmest statistics and keep neglecting the top 10 coldest. It fits the agenda well


Keep ignoring our grave warnings and live in your fantasy world. It puts us all in danger.



As the storm strengthens and pivots along the coast of northern New England, a period of wind-driven heavy snow can develop in portions of New Hampshire, Maine and New Brunswick on Friday and continue into Friday night and early Saturday There is the potential for a foot of snow in portions of Maine, where the storm is likely to evolve into a nor'easter.
Quoting 68. HadesGodWyvern:



about northeast of Rodrigues Island


That's the same island Bansi passed relatively close to!
Some of us like lots of space and not a lot of frills. That may be hard to find in Cali.

Quoting 71. Neapolitan:

Let;s look at some comparative stats. Compared to California, Alabama has: a higher percentage of residents living below the poverty line, a higher percentage of residents considered unhealthy, a higher firearm death rate, a higher childhood death rate, higher rates of obesity, higher suicide rates, higher rates of teenage pregnancy. And so on.

Does that mean California is problem-free? Not by any stretch of the imagination. But by almost every social or economic metric, California is soaring while Alabama is in a death spiral. And a large part of California's success can be attributed to liberal regulatory and economic policies that have focused on helping all, not just the moneyed few.

Alabama is a fine state, to be sure. But I'll take the Golden State every time.

(For the record, yes, I have called both states home, and was in fact born and raised in California.)
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Perhaps the fact that one of these states is running out of natural resources to support its population should factor into your comparison. I don’t think the intent was to compare California to Alabama specifically, but just to use an example of one person who successfully relocated. Unfortunately, the deep south is always going to have poverty issues.
Amazing how one person seems to be able to understand the point of what I wrote while another thinks posts here are supposed to be Census Bureau comparative exercises.





wow!! 12 to 18 inches of snow!
Frosty morning, fair afternoon. 32/63 Temperature at 32 for 7 hours.
18z gfs Monday morning.
Quoting 91. Tornado6042008X:

18z gfs Monday morning.



Very consistent. If the 00z runs hold i'll put some chips in.
Noooo!
CapitalWeatherGang

Most of D.C.’s snowstorms this winter have been field goals. Sunday’s could be a touchdown.

Our confidence has increased that snow and/or a wintry mix of precipitation will occur during the second half of Super Bowl Sunday and possibly continue into Monday morning.

There is potential for this to be our most significant snowstorm this winter, although another light snow or wintry mix event are also possibilities.


Very high waves of 7 meters / 22 feet (grey color) tomorrow in the Western and Central Mediterranean, especially along the northern coasts of Algeria and Tunisia (Source). Hope no boat with refugees dares to take its chances tomorrow!
California Drought watch at UC Davis...............good site here..............Link

Some under 70's days ahead. Some rainfall chance tonight.
Quoting 87. HaoleboySurfEC:

Some of us like lots of space and not a lot of frills. That may be hard to find in Cali.



Not that hard to find.

Wow, Eunice is a great looking storm, outflow is about perfect.



I'm miffed by this Sunday/Monday storm. I was sure it was gone yesterday. Now it seems to be back on. Think I'll just sit back and wait for awhile on that. Models are really struggling to get anything right in the medium range in this pattern.
Quoting 76. Barkeep1967:

So now a noreaster is a sign of climate change ? lol ok

Keep mentioning the top 10 warmest statistics and keep neglecting the top 10 coldest. It fits the agenda well


The emerging issue not the overall records per se, but the frequency in recent decades including same day heat records in Kansas and snowfall records in Mass two days ago as a good example...................Something is amiss.
New to this web site but not new to weather, what makes Juno a winter storm and NOT a clipper. What is a clipper? Could warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures perpetuate a clipper rather than a storm? Also, not much banter about El Nino or La Nina contributing to all of this. Thanks for your answers. BTW: Was weather observer in the USAF from 1976 to 1979 at Hill AFB, Utah. Graduated from 4 month Weather Technical Training school at Chanute AFB, IL in 1976 with honors and a love of weather. Now in Prescott, AZ with trusty barometer and personal tell-tale signs of when forecasts might be correct (e.g. does the dish rag dry out overnight? LOL).
Weather statement for Central Illinois

Special Statement

Statement as of 3:56 PM CST on January 29, 2015

...Accumulating snow event expected this weekend...

A winter weather system is expected to develop in the Southern Plains this weekend and lift northeast into the Tennessee Valley. As the system develops...a mix of rain and snow will move into central Illinois Saturday evening. During the late evening the precipitation will change over to all snow. The snow will become moderate during the overnight hours...with 2 to 3 inches of accumulation possible by Sunday morning...mainly north of Interstate 70. Snow will continue across central and southeast Illinois during the day Sunday...with an additional 2 to 3 inches possible through Sunday afternoon. As the system lifts further east of the area Sunday night...the snow will taper off and only around one half inch of additional accumulation is expected at this time. Total snowfall from Saturday night through Sunday night could range from 5 to 6 inches. Current thinking is that the axis of heaviest snowfall will occur somewhere along a Jacksonville to Danville line.

This system is still a couple of days away and there still remains some uncertainty as to the track of this system and the amount of snowfall possible. Therefore...changes in the amount and location of the heaviest snowfall will likely change between now and the time the snow arrives Saturday night. So...stay tuned for later updates to this winter weather situation.

Auten

British Isles are hit right now by a "Polar low" (pic is a bit earlier from 15 UTC), a vortex amid monster low "Mischka" over Europe.

Polar lows are also called "Arctic hurricanes" :-)
Wiki: A polar low is a small-scale, short-lived atmospheric low pressure system (depression) that is found over the ocean areas poleward of the main polar front in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The systems usually have a horizontal length scale of less than 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) and exist for no more than a couple of days. They are part of the larger class of mesoscale weather systems. Polar lows can be difficult to detect using conventional weather reports and are a hazard to high-latitude operations, such as shipping and gas and oil platforms. Polar lows have been referred to by many other terms, such as polar mesoscale vortex, Arctic hurricane, Arctic low, and cold air depression. Today the term is usually reserved for the more vigorous systems that have near-surface winds of at least 17 m/s (38 mph).


Saved current loop.

Pressure dropped to 976 hPA at my place right now and makes me dropping into my bed. Good night everyone.
Quoting 99. weathermanwannabe:



The emerging issue not the overall records per se, but the frequency in recent decades including same day heat records in Kansas and snowfall records in Mass two days ago as a good example...................Something is amiss.
Having been through a couple of significant low pressure systems it always seems the temperatures on the outside perimeter of the storms tend to be warmer. This is just an observation. Same thing before a cold front arrives.
Quoting 76. Barkeep1967:

So now a noreaster is a sign of climate change ? lol ok

Keep mentioning the top 10 warmest statistics and keep neglecting the top 10 coldest. It fits the agenda well


eehh sonny?? Ah Dimly remember the top coldest from when I was a kid many decades ago. THe top ten warmest are fresh in my mind and mah great grankids remember them.



Actually most of the coldest days I remember happened from 1982 to 1994. Fewer before and since. BZut all of the top ten warmest years are recent. The last top coldest was in 1907!
2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and enso thoughts? North Atlantic sst's?


Tropical Cyclone Eunice

Tropical Cyclone Eunice
Last Updated Jan 29, 2015 12 GMT
Location -16.2N 66.9E Movement SSE
Wind 130 MPH


wow!~~!



Quoting 105. tiggerhurricanes2001:

2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and enso thoughts? North Atlantic sst's?

Nothing has changed since the last time you asked, or the time before that, or the time before that, or the time before that....
Quoting 71. Neapolitan:

Let;s look at some comparative stats. Compared to California, Alabama has: a higher percentage of residents living below the poverty line, a higher percentage of residents considered unhealthy, a higher firearm death rate, a higher childhood death rate, higher rates of obesity, higher suicide rates, higher rates of teenage pregnancy. And so on.

Does that mean California is problem-free? Not by any stretch of the imagination. But by almost every social or economic metric, California is soaring while Alabama is in a death spiral. And a large part of California's success can be attributed to liberal regulatory and economic policies that have focused on helping all, not just the moneyed few.

Alabama is a fine state, to be sure. But I'll take the Golden State every time.

(For the record, yes, I have called both states home, and was in fact born and raised in California.)



Productivity is complex and debatable though. Even ranking productivity is a difficult thing, take for example a tribe of indigenous people who prefer to live with little technology, or an individual who prefers a modest house in a rural area despite being plenty well educated.

The culture of large cities to small towns is vastly different, and regionally speaking. Much of the deep south still struggles from the racial past, and is still hurt by such, which shouldn't come as a surprise. Also, portions of the deep south really struggle as a whole educationally, but the reasons why are complex.

And again, going back to what I was saying earlier, even for people who are educated, many come from a culture in the south where simple living is more desired, as apposed to a large urban area. The problem is economics is often viewed from a skewed prospective this way. Plus, parts of the south actually are doing a lot better

For example, even if I come to get a high paying job with my education, I don't plan on living large, and I will avoid large urban center living as much as possible, I would prefer a simple and modest life outside of a large city, and while I'm not comfortable with small towns, I would live in outer suburbs of a larger city by preference, which I guess is comparable to a small town, and wouldn't be representative as place that is likely to be booming economically. Which means I may not contribute to the economy and such could be interpreted as lack of economic productivity if you multiplied my lifestyle by the millions.

While you attribute it's successes to the political direction it's gone, one could just as argue that California is being limited, and that many of it's problems come from the politics that you say it has benefited from. I'm not saying it is fact to be the case, but my point is that there is some valid points to make against how California handles things, and the reasons some parts of the nation struggle economically while other thrive is complex, and includes sociology and cultural influences as well. Even what it means for an area to be thriving economically is subjective in nature.


Also another thing to consider is the politics varies a lot within state borders, cities tend to be more left leaning politics by nature, because large cities do require more rules and regulations, and less freedom overall in order for them to function properly, whereas rural areas naturally allow for more liberty and freedom and a more simple lifestyle. Typically speaking, that draws people who are more politically right to the more rural life, and the left to the city.

And it makes since, California in it's rural areas is actually quite conservative, it's just that most people only think of the cities when they think of California, so it's assumed to be far left, which isn't all true.

In my opinion, rural areas are in danger of becoming too right wing minded, and urban areas are in danger of becoming too left wing minded, and both have to see the other side, otherwise we as Americans will become America the divided, not united.

Politics is complex, and after all this is a weather blog, but I think political balance just makes sense. Thankfully we still have a system that helps keep in things in check, I'm just glad the nation as a whole seems to be improving again.
Quoting 100. JJJello:

New to this web site but not new to weather, what makes Juno a winter storm and NOT a clipper. What is a clipper? Could warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures perpetuate a clipper rather than a storm? Also, not much banter about El Nino or La Nina contributing to all of this. Thanks for your answers. BTW: Was weather observer in the USAF from 1976 to 1979 at Hill AFB, Utah. Graduated from 4 month Weather Technical Training school at Chanute AFB, IL in 1976 with honors and a love of weather. Now in Prescott, AZ with trusty barometer and personal tell-tale signs of when forecasts might be correct (e.g. does the dish rag dry out overnight? LOL).

An Alberta clipper is just an area of low pressure (spin) that develops across Alberta, Canada (hence the name). A winter storm is just a broad bush term for a system that dumps substantial snowfall across a region, so clippers can certainly be winter storms.
Fantastic graphic via NWS Kansas City, MO:

Winter Storm Kari to Bring More Snow to Snow-Weary New England Published Jan 29 2015 05:24 PM EST

Fresh off the heels of Winter Storm Juno, Winter Storm Kari will bring the threat of more snow to those still digging out in the Northeast

Friday's Forecast
The best chance of moderate to locally heavy snow is in the areas in the darkest blue shading.

With 1 to 2 feet of snow already sitting on the ground, another round of snow and wind is probably the last thing New Englanders want to see, even though Kari will not be as extreme as Juno in terms of wind speed and additional snowfall. A clipper-type system, which so far has produced mainly light accumulations of snow and ice across portions of the Midwest and interior Northeast, will intensify as it reaches the Atlantic seaboard.

Low pressure will wrap up off the coast of Cape Cod late Friday into early Saturday. While the surface low won't be nearly as strong as Winter Storm Juno, this developing offshore low will wring out an area of heavy snow on its northwest flank over parts of northern New England - particularly over the state of Maine - during this time period.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for the entire state of Maine as well as parts of New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Winds gusting up to 40 mph Friday night into Saturday could reduce visibilities, and drifting snow (much of it already on the ground from Juno) could add to dangerous travel in this area.

THIS IS BAD NEWS HERE!!

Quoting 107. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nothing has changed since the last time you asked, or the time before that, or the time before that, or the time before that....

As the North rests on Its laurels, the South is Rising Fast

"More recently, the region, led by Texas, has moved up the value-added chain, seizing a fast-growing share of the jobs in higher-wage fields such as auto and aircraft manufacturing, aerospace, technology, and energy. Southern economic growth has now outpaced the rest of the country for a generation and it now constitutes by far the largest economic region in the country. A recent analysis by Trulia projects the edge will widen over the rest of this decade, owing to factors including the region's lower costs and warmer weather.

These developments are slowly reversing the increasingly outdated image of the South as hopelessly backward in high-value-added industries. Alabama and Kentucky are now among the top-five auto-producing states, while the Third Coast corridor between Louisiana and Florida ranks as the world's fourth-largest aerospace hub, behind Toulouse, France; Seattle; and California."
Quoting 105. tiggerhurricanes2001:

2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and enso thoughts? North Atlantic sst's?


can you Please stop asking the same ? ever day you come on here other wise blogers will start ignoreding you

(Click to enlarge). Really looks like nuisance in the making once again. Stay safe over there ...



someone in the northeast will get about 12 inches of snow on thursday night into friday
Quoting 105. tiggerhurricanes2001:

2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and enso thoughts? North Atlantic sst's?
Tigger, the 2015 season is going to be a bad one. Multiple storm hits on the US coast from La. to NC, maybe a few majors. The will be a weak Modaki Nino turning to a neutral phase by winter. then a La Nina in the spring and summer of 2016. To be honest it's to far out to make a prediction, so lets wait till at least the middle or end of spring to make any enso or hurricane predictions. At this time my prediction is as good as any bodies.
(And Alabama doesn't have earthquakes that reduce your unopened PopTarts to crumbs, either.)

(Or break the eggs inside of your fridge)

(or make your car bounce out of it's parking spot)

.
Quoting 102. barbamz:


British Isles are hit right now by a "Polar low" (pic is a bit earlier from 15 UTC), a vortex amid monster low "Mischka" over Europe.

Polar lows are also called "Arctic hurricanes" :-)
Wiki: A polar low is a small-scale, short-lived atmospheric low pressure system (depression) that is found over the ocean areas poleward of the main polar front in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The systems usually have a horizontal length scale of less than 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) and exist for no more than a couple of days. They are part of the larger class of mesoscale weather systems. Polar lows can be difficult to detect using conventional weather reports and are a hazard to high-latitude operations, such as shipping and gas and oil platforms. Polar lows have been referred to by many other terms, such as polar mesoscale vortex, Arctic hurricane, Arctic low, and cold air depression. Today the term is usually reserved for the more vigorous systems that have near-surface winds of at least 17 m/s (38 mph).


Saved current loop.

Pressure dropped to 976 hPA at my place right now and makes me dropping into my bed. Good night everyone.


Had the first sleet shower I've seen this winter a few hours ago and fingers crossed I'll be waking up to a light dusting of snow from this polar low. A lot of the UK is currently white with snow and hopefully that'll happen for me tomorrow!
Global warming won't mean more storms: Big storms to get bigger, small storms to shrink, experts predict
Date:
January 29, 2015
Source:
University of Toronto
Summary:
Atmospheric physicists predict that global warming will not lead to an overall increasingly stormy atmosphere, a topic debated by scientists for decades. Instead, strong storms will become stronger while weak storms become weaker, and the cumulative result of the number of storms will remain unchanged.

Link
Quoting LowerCal:

Not that hard to find.

Out on my backyard deck, the summer Milky Way is bright enough to cast shadows once your eyes get adapted. I'd guess it has a Bortle rating in the mid-3's. In 10 minutes, I can be at a nice site along our big lake that is probably closer to a 2.

How about you?
Quoting 119. aquak9:

(And Alabama doesn't have earthquakes that reduce your unopened PopTarts to crumbs, either.)

(Or break the eggs inside of your fridge)

(or make your car bounce out of it's parking spot)

.


Didn't have any of those issues, But the Northridge Earthquake did knock a puzzle out of the cupboard and a bottle of cooking oil fell in it and of course broke, big mess. Did I mention, don't make bookcases out of cinder blocks and boards, bad Idea..... lol
Quoting 49. Sfloridacat5:

Lower humidity values have increased the observed fire danger across many areas of Fl.



I've always found this to be a weird index compared to the drought index. We just had between 2 and 4 inches of rain the Tallahassee area last weekend, and almost all of Pinellas County had over 1 inch of rain last weekend as well and neither region is even close to drought and both places have had a lot more rain than south Florida over the past few months.

It must be based on the amount of dead vegetation to burn or something when humidity values are low. I guess maybe Pinellas and the Tallahassee area have more dead vines and things like that compared to some other areas.

I do know that more warm season rain can enhance fire risk in the winter because a lot of seasonal brush and tropical plants like vines will grow more than usual with late summer and Fall rain only to die off in the winter.
Quoting 117. hurricanes2018:




someone in the northeast will get about 12 inches of snow on thursday night into friday


It looks like I am a few miles from a forecast of 3 inches of snow up to 18 inches of snow. A very common thing in central-north New England. Will everyone be crying about "busted forecasts" if the storm track moves a few miles east or west to bring 3 inches or 18 inches? I doubt it.
Well the 18z GFS shows a wintry mix for the southern states...Would you believe it's on Valentines Day at the 384 hour mark....Yes i can it's showed that plenty of times one can only hope...But we know it won't happen..

Quoting TimSoCal:


You're really poking a hornet's nest posting that on this blog, lol. But I'm actually doing better here than I have in my adult life anywhere else(have also lived/worked in FL, TX, AZ). And considering I don't have a degree, that's pretty amazing(although maybe that makes me "unproductive"?). I am concerned about the drought, but it isn't like drought is something that can't happen literally anywhere.
What the heck, there's a hornet's nest under everything now. :-) My brother has an AA degree in electronics and managed to retire as a vice-president from Honeywell, so the last thing I'd think is that the lack of a college degree makes one unproductive.

Southern California was like a paradise in 1967 compared to Ohio. Housing was cheap, wages were high, college was almost free, and grocery stores stayed open 24 hours a day! You had to live in a blue law state to understand what a big deal that was. Nothing I wrote about California in 1967 is true today, except for the grocery stores. Add in crime, pollution, traffic, and a real estate bubble that I was certain was going to collapse and I decided to leave while I still could. I saw recently that the poor guy who bought my house in 2005 has it listed again for about 30% less than what he paid me, so I guess the market there still hasn't recovered.
Quoting 116. barbamz:


(Click to enlarge). Really looks like nuisance in the making once again. Stay safe over there ...
very far south, wasn't it suppose to be through northern New England, looks like it will make a run of the Northern NJ coast, if so it would dump on Southern New England.
Link
Storm Alert for The Ab Weather Channel.
That clipper is booking!
Quoting wartsttocs:


It looks like I am a few miles from a forecast of 3 inches of snow up to 18 inches of snow. A very common thing in central-north New England. Will everyone be crying about "busted forecasts" if the storm track moves a few miles east or west to bring 3 inches or 18 inches? I doubt it.


Which map are you looking at?

On the radar it looks like the first band of snow is nearly upon us in Eastern Vermont. But once again we are going to miss out on the main event. Our current forecast is 3-5" (we got 6 or 7 from the Tuesday storm)
The 0z JTWC ATCF now lists Cyclone Eunice at 140kts, making it the second Category 5-equivalent cyclone in the South-West Indian Ocean this season.


Folks as for the Sunday storm does anyone think Winter Storm Watches could come up for the Mid Atlantic tomorrow ?
Quoting aquak9:
(And Alabama doesn't have earthquakes that reduce your unopened PopTarts to crumbs, either.)

(Or break the eggs inside of your fridge)

(or make your car bounce out of it's parking spot)

.
Yeah, all that plus it doesn't throw you out of bed at night.

Did you ever pick that giant carrot?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Didn't have any of those issues, But the Northridge Earthquake did knock a puzzle out of the cupboard and a bottle of cooking oil fell in it and of course broke, big mess. Did I mention, don't make bookcases out of cinder blocks and boards, bad Idea..... lol
Don't use them as the base for a workbench in the garage and then park your almost brand new car next to it either. I had no idea one of those big Sears toolboxes could fly that far...or make such a big hole in sheet metal. :-)
Quoting 133. weatherlover94:

Folks as for the Sunday storm does anyone think Winter Storm Watches could come up for the Mid Atlantic tomorrow ?
To early.

On a separate note a small glaze of ice on the front porch.Haven't checked the deck yet but won't rule it out.
Quoting 136. washingtonian115:

To early.

On a separate note a small glaze of ice on the front porch.Haven't checked the deck yet but won't rule it out.

Entire deck is covered in ice here in Fairfax.
Quoting 137. 1Zach1:


Entire deck is covered in ice here in Fairfax.
Will have to be extra careful in the morning.
Quoting Methurricanes:
very far south, wasn't it suppose to be through northern New England, looks like it will make a run of the Northern NJ coast, if so it would dump on Southern New England.
It looks about right to me. The front should go through most of the urban Northeast pretty rapidly tonight while the low turns NE and gets off the coast. As it does, it deepens by tomorrow and dumps about a foot or so on Maine. It doesn't look like more than an inch or two in the lower sections of the Northeast. Sunday night and Monday is when that area gets more snow, based on a upper level trough that becomes negatively tilted and digs south out of Canada. It looks like a vigorous winter storm for the Northeast, with lots of wind as well as four to eight inches of snow. If it wasn't for Monday's "blizzard", this storm would probably be getting more air time. Instead, all the forecasters are reassuring area residents this one isn't going to be bad. Based on the wind profiles and projected snowfall rates, this one may actually get closer to blizzard criteria than anything seen from NYC south on Monday. That's just my own guess. I haven't seen it in any discussions...yet.
Quoting weatherlover94:
Folks as for the Sunday storm does anyone think Winter Storm Watches could come up for the Mid Atlantic tomorrow ?
It's possible, although I expect it to be more like special weather statements tomorrow with a watch on Saturday, followed by a warning late Saturday.
New Zealand -

Dry January records lowest rainfall since 1879

Record low rainfall across the region during January saw Karori Reservoir record the lowest rainfall since 1879 and Wainuiomata Reservoir lowest since 1890.

Karori received only 3.8mm of rain during January compared to the average of 81mm, while at Wainuiomata Reservoir the monthly total of 1.5mm is even more extreme and is less than two percent of the average rainfall of 106mm.

Rainfall and river flow records collected by the Greater Wellington Regional Council are showing the effect of the recent warm and dry weather conditions on river flows and rainfall across the entire region. All rain gauges operated by GWRC in Wellington, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt and Wainuiomata have received less than six percent of average January rainfall amounts.

The exceptionally dry start to the 2015 year has added to the already dry conditions that prevailed throughout October, November and December when rainfall was well below average for most parts of the region.


Link
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Global warming won't mean more storms: Big storms to get bigger, small storms to shrink, experts predict
Date:
January 29, 2015
Source:
University of Toronto
Summary:
Atmospheric physicists predict that global warming will not lead to an overall increasingly stormy atmosphere, a topic debated by scientists for decades. Instead, strong storms will become stronger while weak storms become weaker, and the cumulative result of the number of storms will remain unchanged.

Link


Interesting article. I didn't see any mention of how changes in the earth's surface or changes in the oceans would impact their model.
Quoting bayoubug:
Well the 18z GFS shows a wintry mix for the southern states...Would you believe it's on Valentines Day at the 384 hour mark....Yes i can it's showed that plenty of times one can only hope...But we know it won't happen..

Well, no, I wouldn't believe anything at 384 hours. :-) I will say we've had a lot of near misses and, in a continuing cold winter, It's just a matter of if we run out of cold air first. It hasn't been talked about much but there's a very cold shortwave riding the northern jet Wednesday while a shortwave in the southern stream leads to the formation of a surface low in the Gulf. The low in the Gulf looks too weak to really get in phase with the northern stream before the cold air modifies but it might be yet another close call. For right now, I'm a lot more interested in this system than anything that might happen further out.


i see 12 to 18 inches of snow now!!


US Current Surface Map
Snowpack In California "Dismally Meager"

While December storms brought some hope that California’s drought would ease, January’s second snow survey shattered it.

“Unfortunately it seems like it’s a trend in the last three or four years, that’s January’s just been a dud,” says Dave Rizzardo, chief of snow surveys for the California Department of Water Resources. Statewide, California only has a quarter of the water in the snowpack that would be normal for this date. January is usually the wettest month – but in some parts of the state, it’s shaping up to be the driest January on record.

“In a nutshell, rainfall has been better in the northern state, but that didn’t translate to snowpack, we’re pretty much across the board we’re in dire circumstances,” says Rizzardo.


Link
Quoting 105. tiggerhurricanes2001:

2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and enso thoughts? North Atlantic sst's?


Taz has a point. Seriously dude, you sound like a broken record. Wait until April or May for that kind of stuff. It's impossible to make any reliable hurricane predictions this far out.



friday weather in the morning on January 29, 2015 i see a low in the northeast!!
Texas Drought Update
With a nice soaking rain last week, much of Texas is slowly pulling out of this prolonged drought event.
Although regions of central and north Texas still have ways to go, the regions of east, south, and west Texas are improving. 41% of the State is now drought-free, which is the highest percentage in over 4 years (November 2010 was the last time the state was this drought-free.)

Quoting 147. TimTheWxMan:



Taz has a point. Seriously dude, you sound like a broken record. Wait until April or May for that kind of stuff. It's impossible to make any reliable hurricane predictions this far out.

These past few years, it's been impossible to make any reliable hurricane predictions while the hurricane season is ongoing lol. Hopefully this year is better. Trends in the AMO will need to be monitored more than anything else IMO.
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
435 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015


...................................

...THE SAN FRANCISCO DWTN CA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 29 2015...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1850 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
................................................. .................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 66 143 PM 71 1899 58 8 61
MINIMUM 51 743 AM 36 1922 46 5 54
AVERAGE 59 52 7 58

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 4.67 1881 0.14 -0.14 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.00 4.19 -4.19 0.03
SINCE JUL 1 15.09 13.30 1.79 2.11
SINCE JAN 1 0.00 4.19 -4.19 0.03

The forecast
Quoting 152. BaltimoreBrian:

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
435 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015


...................................

...THE SAN FRANCISCO DWTN CA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 29 2015...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1850 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
................................................. .................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 66 143 PM 71 1899 58 8 61
MINIMUM 51 743 AM 36 1922 46 5 54
AVERAGE 59 52 7 58

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 4.67 1881 0.14 -0.14 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 0.00 4.19 -4.19 0.03
SINCE JUL 1 15.09 13.30 1.79 2.11
SINCE JAN 1 0.00 4.19 -4.19 0.03

The forecast


@philklotzbach · 8h
Three driest Januaries at SFO since 1946 have occurred the past three years. 2013 (0.20"), 2014 (0.01") and 2015 (0").
A new Bloomberg article about Brazil -

Rio to Sao Paulo Plan for Water Cutoffs After Downplaying Crisis


(Bloomberg) -- After public officials and utilities downplayed for months the chance Brazil’s three most-populous states will face water rationing, plans to severely limit water use are in the works as reservoirs fall to record lows. .......................The three states account for 40 percent of Brazil’s population and 53 percent of the gross domestic product. Threats of water shortages come as the federal government is also grappling with plunging commodities prices, fiscal cuts to stave off a credit-rating downgrade and a corruption probe at the state-run oil company. As recently as Jan. 15, Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin promised water rationing wouldn’t happen.
“There has been a lack of transparency at every level of government,” said Juliana Serillo, economist at macroeconomics consultancy MB Associados. If states had been more willing to implement water-saving measures before, “the situation now wouldn’t be so extreme.”


Link

Link
My forecast for Winter Storm Kari and beyond. Please share and grade when you're done ok. Thanks guys.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
12:00 PM FST January 30 2015
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (999 hPa) located at 16.9S 160.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved in last 18 hours with primary band wrapping the system from the north. Convection has increased in last 18 hours with cloud tops cooling over primary bands. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extend to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperatures around 30C.

Global models have picked the system and move it eastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 17.0S 161.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 17.2S 161.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 18.4S 162.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIAMONDRA (07-20142015)
4:00 AM RET January 30 2015
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra (990 hPa) located at 22.5S 81.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots..

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM radius from the center, extending up to 210 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 240 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 270 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 24.2S 82.4E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
24 HRS 25.8S 83.5E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 28.6S 85.7E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 35.6S 90.3E - 40 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)

Additional Information
===================
As shear is increasing and the ocean heat content is no more sufficient, residual thunderstorms activity is removed far away from the center over the eastern and southeastern sectors. The center remains rather "invisible" on classical infrared imagery. The current position is based on extrapolation from the partial SSMI pass at 2134z ... and is associated with low to fair accuracy. The current intensity is based on a weakening trend since the two ASCAT pass of last night.

Diamondra should continue to track southeastwards under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge and a transient mid-level trough in its south. On this track, Diamondra is expected to become a post-tropical depression later today before completing its extratropical transition later this weekend. The winds are expected to strengthen somewhat in the mid-latitudes general circulation.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE EUNICE (08-20142015)
4:00 AM RET January 30 2015
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice (915 hPa) located at 17.7S 67.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
75 NM radius from the center, extending up to 85 NM in the northern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==============
115 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 210 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 230 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/7.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 18.9S 68.4E - 120 knots (Cyclone Tropical Trés Intense)
24 HRS 19.9S 69.8E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 20.7S 74.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 21.5S 81.5E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
===================
Shortly after 1800z, the satellite presentation has slightly deteriorated with, among some small things, a cooler eye. The 3 hrs average raw DT falls down to 6.4 near 2100z (use of fy2e data to compensate the "loss" of met7 during the eclipse). Since 2330z, the raw DT is up again at 7.0. Final Dvorak remains based on the 3 hrs average DT that is at 6.7 at 0000z. Meanwhile, the radius of maximum wind (estimated on infrared imagery) grow up a little bit. The microwave pattern (GPM of 2311z) remains impressive and does not suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle is about to begin.

Under the steering influence of the upper near-equatorial ridge, the system is expected to continue to track southeastward up to Saturday morning. On friday, the upper equatorward divergence is forecast to become less good. But, thanks to the low vertical wind shear and a good poleward outflow, Eunice should remain its intensity with a still possible increase in intensity during the next 6 hours at 125 knots very close or at the radius of maximum wind level. Tonight, the shear is still expected to increase and that should be the end of the favorable environmental conditions windows.

From Saturday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to extend westward and a deep high to mid-level trough is expected to take place south of Eunice and should curve the track generally eastwards. The forward speed is expected to increase by that time within a fast westerly steering flow. The strongest spread amongst the numerical weather prediction guidance come from the difference in forward speed by that time. The current forecast lies close to the multi-models consensus.

Environmental conditions should continue to slowly deteriorate with the strengthening westerly wind shear (lower relative shear however) and also (mainly) some very low ocean heat contain near or south of 20.0S.
Eunice is certainly looking very impressive right now. Definitely cat 5 worthy.



With JTWC upgrading Eunice to category 5 at 00Z today, this marks the first time the agency has analyzed two category 5 tropical cyclones (with Bansi being the first earlier this month) in the Southwest Indian Basin since the 1995-1996 season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

@philklotzbach · 8h
Three driest Januaries at SFO since 1946 have occurred the past three years. 2013 (0.20"), 2014 (0.01") and 2015 (0").


With each one drier than the previous one. At least that won't be repeated next year :/
Looks like a backwards spinning Igor.



Analyzed as 140 knots, 918 mbar.
00z models....what a joke. If that's true, i'm done with this winter. At least I knew better than to throw the chips in. Bring on spring.
Yea, my man Frankie gets some time forecasting on the news. A great story !!

Link
Quoting 161. Drakoen:

00z models....what a joke. If that's true, i'm done with this winter. At least I knew better than to throw the chips in. Bring on spring.

The 2013 Hurricane Season is returning as the Winter Season of 2014-2015. :D
Ummm...... I'm gonna run away before it gets ugly *ZZZZIIIIIPPPPPPP*...

Well there's still the UKMET,GGEM, and ECMWF 00z runs to go. That whole suite will have to be south to convince me this is just a hiccup on the GFS.

UKMET model often gets overlooked due to its lack of graphics but it had been wanting to take this farther north than the rest of the models.
"If the rain persists in not falling into the Cantareira reservoir system, the solution would be for very heavy rationing," said Paulo Massato, director of the state water company Sabesp.

Sabesp runs the Cantareira system, which supplies nearly half of the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, South America's largest city with some 20 million people.

"The rationing would see two days with water and then five without," he said late Tuesday.

Massato said it was the only way to avoid a total cut in water supplies, which have been depleted by months of severe drought that have sent water levels to their lowest levels in living memory.

Unless it rains soon, supplies could run out altogether by March.



Read more at: Link

We've been watching this set of moving goalposts for nearly a year. But that March goal post very well may be the last one. The wet season in January has produced 43 % of the long term average. But given that the rains failed last season , and the ground is so baked over such a large area. That number may not mean much any more. The adaption in Brazil begs endless questions-
If this comes to pass, one wonders what happens when a really big fire gets going. Along with the idea of not flushing a toilet for 5 days. And no power to run refrigeration. The list is endless. I hope the people of California are taking notes.
You know it's really staring to anger me 48 hours before the event is to begin and the models still can't make up there mind on a track ...one run is north one is south ..north south north south north south how do we forecast like that ?
Quoting 163. TylerStanfield:


The 2013 Hurricane Season is returning as the Winter Season of 2014-2015. :D

The past few tornado seasons have been fairly rough as well. It's been a poor few years to be a United States storm enthusiast.
Quoting 167. weatherlover94:

You know it's really staring to anger me 48 hours before the event is to begin and the models still can't make up there mind on a track ...one run is north one is south ..north south north south north south how do we forecast like that ?


Just assume the worst will happen, mid 30s and cold rain on your way to work, and you won't be disappointed. Then you can be surprised, if by a small chance, things happen to switch in your favor at the last second.
Quoting 159. BaltimoreBrian:



With each one drier than the previous one. At least that won't be repeated next year :/


And the POR in downtown San Francisco is the oldest on the west coast 165 years. I'd really like to know who that gold rush guy was who set up that first station in 1850.
12Z was south 18Z was south well that looks like some consistency ....then comes 0Z....north ...i would not doubt it being south again tomorrow ...I just don't see how it can go north i though the high was gonna be strong enough to force it south

Quoting 169. Drakoen:



Just assume the worst will happen, mid 30s and cold rain on your way to work, and you won't be disappointed. Then you can be surprised, if by a small chance, things happen to switch in your favor at the last second.
Quoting 167. weatherlover94:

You know it's really staring to anger me 48 hours before the event is to begin and the models still can't make up there mind on a track ...one run is north one is south ..north south north south north south how do we forecast like that ?


Welcome nature, and the greatest chemistry experiment in the history of the world.
Quoting 171. weatherlover94:

12Z was south 18Z was south well that looks like some consistency ....then comes 0Z....north ...i would not doubt it being south again tomorrow ...I just don't see how it can go north i though the high was gonna be strong enough to force it south




I think I need to go back to school.

I was almost worried that with that big High coming down this would get suppressed too much to the south in addition with the western upper level ridge anomalously higher heights prevent a complete phase of the system. Now we have amplification in the Tennessee River Valley instead of the VA/NC border.
Quoting 161. Drakoen:

00z models....what a joke. If that's true, i'm done with this winter. At least I knew better than to throw the chips in. Bring on spring.

Until the northern stream energy is accurately sampled on land, the models are going to continue struggling with the track of the system. This was especially true for the Blizzard of 2015. I wouldn't worry too much about it, yet.
Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Until the northern stream energy is accurately sampled on land, the models are going to continue struggling with the track of the system. This was especially true for the Blizzard of 2015. I wouldn't worry too much about it, yet.


You're preaching to the choir. Models are all over the place just like this winter.
Quoting Drakoen:


Just assume the worst will happen, mid 30s and cold rain on your way to work, and you won't be disappointed. Then you can be surprised, if by a small chance, things happen to switch in your favor at the last second.
You did get a little pop with Monday's storm, so maybe something good will happen this time. At least this solution gives Alabama a shot at some more rain, which we really need. The model flip flopping has been going on for the past year, but it seems to have gotten worse this winter. Other than just taking a quick look, I just refuse to spend time studying the long range models. I used to say I'd only look closely when it was 72 hours out...then 48...now I guess it will only be when the storm is about 4 hours out. It's very frustrating, to say the least.
Quoting 175. Drakoen:



You're preaching to the choir. Models are all over the place just like this winter.

I jumped off the cliff a little while ago, at least for the Southeast.

Screw the SAI. Siberian snow cover may lead to a predominantly negative AO during the winter months, but it's not nearly as direct of a relationship as Dr. Cohen thought. Also, what's up with the NAO? It's like pulling teeth to get it to stay negative for prolonged periods of time lately...just like trying to get an El Nino.
Quoting 176. sar2401:

You did get a little pop with Monday's storm, so maybe something good will happen this time. At least this solution gives Alabama a shot at some more rain, which we really need. The model flip flopping has been going on for the past year, but it seems to have gotten worse this winter. Other than just taking a quick look, I just refuse to spend time studying the long range models. I used to say I'd only look closely when it was 72 hours out...then 48...now I guess it will only be when the storm is about 4 hours out. It's very frustrating, to say the least.


Yes we did get a nice light event. I'm holding out some hope (why I don't know) that the rest of tonight's 00z runs will be south and that the 12z runs tomorrow will be south of us and not over us.
Quoting 168. 1900hurricane:


The past few tornado seasons have been fairly rough as well. It's been a poor few years to be a United States storm enthusiast.

The Subtropical Jet was very far south for much of the spring last year, which meant that most of the "big" tornadic events relied on the polar jet stream for strong upper-level winds and instability (Which is why we saw much of the tornado activity in the northern great plains during the Spring.) It's much harder to get a severe weather event primed, and happen frequently under those circumstances.
180. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA presented through washington.edu .
D&T:: on imagery
SUBJECT:: Symmetrical LOWS in the area where TS kept looking anemic or Picasoish.
http://youtu.be/ncoWcKv_8GI
 if interested more weird explanations on my only active USofA blogbyte, my comment #38 showing ENSO Niño EAST areas spritzing further north as LOWs/strong fronts interacted with the ml-d, and this when ENSO Niño is going more neutral, for now. BTW its snowing!! here in Manhattan , NY quick get the CNN blizzard mobile.
What are the odds of this ?
Southeast Brazil is locked in the driest period in 84 years of records .
The north island of New Zealand has seen the driest January since 1879.
Downtown San Francisco has just seen the driest January since 1850.

All of which are setting next to oceans. We're not talking Tibet here.

Strange days.
Hi guys, what you think of my video.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

The Subtropical Jet was very far south for much of the spring last year, which meant that most of the "big" tornadic events relied on the polar jet stream for strong upper-level winds and instability (Which is why we saw much of the tornado activity in the northern great plains during the Spring.) It's much harder to get a severe weather event primed, and happen frequently under those circumstances.
Hi Tyler, how are you. Sorry for everything last year. Can you forgive me.
UKMET 00z is way up north and the GGEM 00z is down south (Bulls-eye for Maryland).
I agree that this winter is especially relentless. I can say that I'm so done with it, but unfortunately I can't really do anything. Save for take a permanent vacation closer to the equator haha.
Eunice looks absolutely beautiful right now; I love seeing such wonderfully structured storms, it's especially nice to see in contrast to... well, cold.
I've been looking at the NHC website to see if they've been making headway on their post-season analyses. Nothing particularly final on any storm, save for Bertha. I have noticed one distinct difference in the write-up of Fay, though, in that they have found proof enough to declare that Fay had been a hurricane upon landfall on Bermuda. I know that Fay's official hurricane status was originally known to be attained after its passage over the island, but it's cool to know that they are on the same page as nearly everyone who was following the storm. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL072014_Fay.pdf

I'm keen on seeing whether any other upgrades/downgrades have been made. I can see Cristobal maybe being slightly strong, as well as Edouard being slightly stronger and having been a major for slightly longer. 
It's just something to talk about other than this harrowing winter.
Quoting 84. wxgeek723:



Keep ignoring our grave warnings and live in your fantasy world. It puts us all in danger.


You mean like the one where NYC would be under water by 2015 ? How about the catastrophic Hurricanes running wild ? the ice free artic ?

Which wrong dire warning are you referring to ?

You all just got deflated last week when the warmest year ever hype train was derailed by actual facts.

follow the money you will find the opinion, The sheeple always follow.
Quoting 121. ColoradoBob1:

Global warming won't mean more storms: Big storms to get bigger, small storms to shrink, experts predict
Date:
January 29, 2015
Source:
University of Toronto
Summary:
Atmospheric physicists predict that global warming will not lead to an overall increasingly stormy atmosphere, a topic debated by scientists for decades. Instead, strong storms will become stronger while weak storms become weaker, and the cumulative result of the number of storms will remain unchanged.

Link


Huh ?

Translation:
well we might be wrong and ummm yea we are covering our asses at this point,
188. vis0
Quoting 104. georgevandenberghe:



eehh sonny?? Ah Dimly remember the top coldest from when I was a kid many decades ago. THe top ten warmest are fresh in my mind and mah great grankids remember them.



Actually most of the coldest days I remember happened from 1982 to 1994. Fewer before and since. BZut all of the top ten warmest years are recent. The last top coldest was in 1907!
One can go here (http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/115/) and watch an animated reel, i mean VID of the top 10 coldest & warmest years within the period that falls within modern mans recorded history.%uFFFD
Now for those that will say, "Well, that's not counting all the years man has been on Earth!!!"%uFFFD%uFFFD
i'm sorry to say those records were misplaced but we have Grothar checking his diary and at the moment he is on pg30,000 of 1,657,100,000,000 and will let you know when he gets to the page when man began to walk upright and say "its not the heat its the humidity/humility".
Quoting 186. Barkeep1967:



You mean like the one where NYC would be under water by 2015 ? How about the catastrophic Hurricanes running wild ? the ice free artic ?

Which wrong dire warning are you referring to ?

You all just got deflated last week when the warmest year ever hype train was derailed by actual facts.

follow the money you will find the opinion, The sheeple always follow.



You're about the last person I would consider a credible source for rational discourse.

I still remember when you tried to assume the moral high ground when I mentioned wanting hurricanes to hit the coast so I could chase them.

I still don't regret that, by the way. I've said far worse things.
Quoting 186. Barkeep1967:



You mean like the one where NYC would be under water by 2015 ? How about the catastrophic Hurricanes running wild ? the ice free artic ?

Which wrong dire warning are you referring to ?

You all just got deflated last week when the warmest year ever hype train was derailed by actual facts.

follow the money you will find the opinion, The sheeple always follow.



Why are you here? Why not just go a some other blog that accepts your ideas, I don't see why you waste your time here, we're interested in scientific discussion here, if that's not your cup of tea, you don't need to stay if it is offensive.

Just know that your children's and the generation after won't be thanking you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I jumped off the cliff a little while ago, at least for the Southeast.

Screw the SAI. Siberian snow cover may lead to a predominantly negative AO during the winter months, but it's not nearly as direct of a relationship as Dr. Cohen thought. Also, what's up with the NAO? It's like pulling teeth to get it to stay negative for prolonged periods of time lately...just like trying to get an El Nino.
Even worse with the NAO is how many times it has been predicted to go negative since November. It's actually gone negative for, what, maybe two days? The lack of a negative NAO has been a pretty good predictor of very little winter weather down here in the Southeast, but we keep getting the cold air while the moisture gets out too early or too late to get any frozen precipitation. If we can't get any snow, at least give us normal temperatures. This running in and out with all the tender plants is getting tiring. :-)
Quoting vis0:

One can go here (http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/115/) and watch an animated reel, i mean VID of the top 10 coldest & warmest years within the period that falls within modern mans recorded history. 
Now for those that will say, "Well, that's not counting all the years man has been on Earth!!!"  
i'm sorry to say those records were misplaced but we have grother checking his diary and at the moment he is on pg30,000 of 1,657,100,000,000 and will let you know when he gets to the page when man began to walk upright and say "its not the heat its the humidity".
LOL. So true, the records aren't all being falsified by our reptilian overlords yet. Just wait until they peel off those masks and really get started on us, especially that guy with the machine. :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:


You're about the last person I would consider a credible source for rational discourse.

I still remember when you tried to assume the moral high ground when I mentioned wanting hurricanes to hit the coast so I could chase them.

I still don't regret that, by the way. I've said far worse things.
There apparently is some confusion in his mind between a scientific study and a story in the Guardian. I love the sheeple thing though. It's a great way to win an argument. Everyone but him and his mom are sheeples, and he's not sure about mom. :-)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE EUNICE (08-20142015)
10:00 AM RET January 30 2015
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice (900 hPa) located at 18.4S 68.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 130 knots with gusts of 180 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the northern semi-circle.

Storm Force Winds
=============
75 NM radius from the center, extending up to 85 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
115 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 200 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0/7.0/D1.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 19.5S 69.0E - 130 knots (Cyclone Tropical Trés Intense)
24 HRS 20.4S 70.7E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 21.0S 76.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 22.2S 84.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
===================
Eunice has continued to strengthen last night. At 0300z, METEOSAT7 imagery has temporarily shown a DT reaching 7.5. This mentioned current intensity assessment at FT=7.0+ is a 6 hrs average. The microwave pattern (SSMIS of 0232z) remains impressive and does not suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle is about to begin.

Under the steering influence of the upper near-equatorial ridge, the system is expected to continue to track southeastwards up to Saturday morning. Today, the upper equatorward divergence is forecast to become less good. But, thanks to the low vertical wind shear and a good poleward outflow, Eunice should keep its intensity. Tonight, the shear is still expected to increase and that should be the end of the favorable environmental conditions window.

From Saturday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to extend westward and a deep high to mid-level trough is expected to take place south of Eunice and should curve the track generally eastwards. The forward speed is expected to increase by that time within a fast westerly steering flow. The strongest spread amongst the numerical weather prediction guidance come from the difference in forward speed by that time. The current forecast lies close to the multi-models consensus.

Environmental conditions should continue to slowly deteriorate with the strengthening westerly wind shear (lower relative shear however) and also (mainly) some very low ocean heat contain near or south of 20.0S.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE, FORMER TC DIAMONDRA (07-20142015)
10:00 AM RET January 30 2015
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Post Tropical Depression, Former Diamondra (990 hPa) located at 23.5S 82.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots..

Gale Force Winds
==============
85 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 230 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 260 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 25.1S 83.2E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
24 HRS 26.6S 84.3 E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 30.2S 87.2E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 38.3S 91.3E - 45 knots (Depression ExtraTropicale)

Additional Information
===================
Diamondra has lost its purely tropical characteristics.

As shear is increasing and the ocean heat content is no more sufficient, residual thunderstorms activity is removed far away from the center over the eastern and southeastern sectors.

Diamondra should keeps on tracking southeastwards under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge and a transient mid-level trough in its south. On this track, Diamondra is expected to complete its extratropical transition later this weekend. The winds are expected to strengthen somewhat in the mid-latitudes general circulation.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F
18:00 PM FST January 30 2015
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09F (995 hPa) located at 16.8S 161.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved significantly in last 24 hours with primary band trying to wrap around the system from the north. Convection remains persistent in the past 12 hours. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Good outflow to the north and south of the system. Cyclonic circulation extend to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature around 30C.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly moving it southeastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 17.3S 161.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 18.0S 162.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 19.8S 162.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
197. vis0
You forgot the "dry" spell in the Atlantic, as in sinking air/SAL etc. and THAT'S IN THE OCEAN. 
Now for my incoherent "Paragraphs". IF AT ANYTIME YOU FEEL LOST WHILE READING MY WORDS please go pop in a dvd of any senate hearing on science and watch just 1 minute then return to reading my words, they'll then appear to be Einstonian words.
On a related (TO ME) note, if one reads the previous comment above at #180 and then checks out those links and comments #28 thru #38 on blogbyte,  you'll see those 4 mentioned areas matching what i tried to have studied as to the crazy inventions and discoveries i claim to have made and their affect on nature (in this case, weather). 
Please remember the same person that since 2010 stated how a device could create such a trend by influencing weather and nature, nad nature (by luck) not creating any weather trend stronger than the settings of what i state an invention i named an ml-d is set to influence weather,  now states that of the next 4-5 yrs each of those 4 areas due to a natural wxtrend cycle (part of which is the Sun cycle outward, known to be ~11 yrs  & Sun cycle inward -being discovered therefore not yet understood @ ~8yrs) will lead to 2 times the 128 yr. normal as to weather formations. 
As to how nature doles out that  "2 times";  in amount, strength, repetitiveness (as in same area regenerates another strong storm 2 times faster than thought possible) , size & proximity (2 or 3 strong storms "next" to each other, is up to nature.
At worst by preparing oneself for the worst it helps when real bad weather occurs, at best all reading this  & family, friends in practicing whats needed in case of emergency you'll be better off.  Not cause the world to some will seem like its ending, but that as many here understand its the power of nature that has to be respected and by being ready one gives oneself a better chance of making it through anything nature throws at you.
 
Now back to Gambling on weather with out special guests:: young wxu members trying to get veteran wxu member to guess whats going to happen with not just the LOW for Sunday, but how will the 2015 TS be exactly & which yr. is the analog yr. and is the 2,000 GFS hr. forecast more accurate than the 3,000 hr. Euro when looking at them through a kaleidoscope.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ 040-051>055-057-
501-502-505-506-301700-
/O.CON.KLWX.WI.Y.0003.150130T1700Z-150131T0500Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-
EASTERN LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE ...DUNDALK...
CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...GERMANTOWN...
DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICO TT CITY...
JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...CULPEPER...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...
FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...
LEESBURG...ASHBURN
350 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SCATTERED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. DIFFICULTY
DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. SECURE OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND TAKE CARE DRIVING HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$
Quoting 166. ColoradoBob1:

"If the rain persists in not falling into the Cantareira reservoir system, the solution would be for very heavy rationing," said Paulo Massato, director of the state water company Sabesp.

Sabesp runs the Cantareira system, which supplies nearly half of the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, South America's largest city with some 20 million people.

"The rationing would see two days with water and then five without," he said late Tuesday.

Massato said it was the only way to avoid a total cut in water supplies, which have been depleted by months of severe drought that have sent water levels to their lowest levels in living memory.

Unless it rains soon, supplies could run out altogether by March.



Read more at: Link

We've been watching this set of moving goalposts for nearly a year. But that March goal post very well may be the last one. The wet season in January has produced 43 % of the long term average. But given that the rains failed last season , and the ground is so baked over such a large area. That number may not mean much any more. The adaption in Brazil begs endless questions-
If this comes to pass, one wonders what happens when a really big fire gets going. Along with the idea of not flushing a toilet for 5 days. And no power to run refrigeration. The list is endless. I hope the people of California are taking notes.

20 million people in an area with no water.

It will be down to trucking in bottled watered for the people to survive and probably nothing else.
So many times there is the dodging the bullet with these potential disasters, sooner or later the luck will run out and then there will be a major disaster and the world will see it.
Its not just the shortage of water its also the whole economy of the area.
There could and probably will be civil strife and water riots, bankruptcy's and deaths.
Also fires in the rural and metropolitan areas.

Then consider what happens in a few more months if it doesn't rain? That could be real ground braking stuff with 20 million people waterless in a totally decertified region!
Looks grim to say the least.

Link
Wind Chill Advisory
Statement as of 4:15 AM EST on January 30, 2015
...Wind Chill Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to noon EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Wind Chill Advisory...which is in effect from midnight tonight to noon EST Saturday.

* Locations...the lower Hudson Valley...northeast New Jersey roughly north of Interstate 80...and much of southern Connecticut.

* Hazard types...hazardous wind chills.

* Wind chills...as low as 15 to 20 below due to temperatures in the single digits and lower teens...and northwest winds sustained at 15 to 20 mph.

* Timing...from midnight tonight into Saturday morning.

* Impacts...frostbite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills that could lead to frostbite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If you venture outdoors...make sure you wear a wind repellent coat...hat and gloves.



nice looking eye
From the previous page, where droughts were mentioned.
Here are a few facts on San Paulo, Brazil.

CME São Paulo, Brazil (Extended Metropolitan Complex of São Paulo) 27,640,577, Population
23,061.9 Area in Sq Kilometers
1,198 Population per Square kilometer.

From this we compare it to about three quarters of the population of California or Canada.
Sort of puts it into perspective on the subjects of droughts.

If they don't get a lot of rain soon, which is probably unlikely, then this area must be at the forefront of the list of places to watch in 2015.
This could be a real global eye opener.
light snow in east haven this morning
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN...UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE 4-8
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INLAND
AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FL DURING THE
DAY 6-7 PERIOD WHEN THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW APPROACHING THE BAJA
AREA WILL FINALLY EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF...DEAMPLIFYING IN
THE PROCESS. IT STILL APPEARS A SEVERE THREAT MIGHT DEVELOP OVER NRN
FL SOMEWHERE IN THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
DEMONSTRATED SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE TO INTRODUCE A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT
THIS TIME.
Quoting 203. tampabaymatt:


We might get our average February rainfall in just 2 days next week. Euro ensembles look very at the next 2 weeks across ALL of FL not just C & N FL.
droughts happened before and will happen again. people need to start taking responsibility and stop having babies like rabbits. buy all the poor folks in the world tv's



Winter Storm Kari Blankets Snow-Weary New England Published Jan 30 2015 07:43 AM EST Current Radar



heavy snow for the northeast on monday the GFS more to the north
Quoting 209. islander101010:

droughts happened before and will happen again. people need to start taking responsibility and stop having babies like rabbits


Er.. ok.. I feel like you launched a lead balloon.

Of course, you could always Jonathan Swift it up and suggest that people in drought-stricken areas eat their offspring. That proposal may be more modest than your rabbits theory.
Quoting vis0:
In response to this image,

i decided to do some detective work and found Grothar hanging out in front
odf the Flatiron building in NYC.
Grothar_much_wiser_in_NYC_01.jpg  Grothar_much_wiser_in_NYC_02.jpg   Grothar_much_wiser_in_NYC_03.jpg   Grothar_much_wiser_in_NYC_04.jpg   Grothar_much_wiser_in_NYC_05.jpg
 
 
OMG! It is Gro on a visit to snowy NYC! Poor guy's lost his eyes somewhere too! Maybe he has a seeing eye snow dog to help him around. :-)
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:


Er.. ok.. I feel like you launched a lead balloon.

Of course, you could always Jonathan Swift it up and suggest that people in drought-stricken areas eat their offspring. That proposal may be more modest than your rabbits theory.
Sounds like an ironic comment about the Pope's words on this subject last week. Regardless, it's not much of an answer for the current drought crisis. Brazil is a big and relatively wealthy country. All I can do is hope they have a plan other than stockpiling tear gas and rubber bullets.
Quoting 206. hurricanes2018:

light snow in east haven this morning



219. JRRP
Quoting tampabaymatt:

modoki



heavy snow for new york city on monday!! last year we had a snow storm on monday last year superbowl the next day heavy snow last year..
Quoting 208. StormTrackerScott:



We might get our average February rainfall in just 2 days next week. Euro ensembles look very at the next 2 weeks across ALL of FL not just C & N FL.


After checking the 1, 2, 3, 4-5 and 6-7 day QPFs, for LA, looks like the only rain-free day for the next week is today. Bummer...


#197 - vis0

"IF AT ANYTIME YOU FEEL LOST WHILE READING MY WORDS please go pop in a dvd of any senate hearing on science and watch just 1 minute then return to reading my words, they'll then appear to be Einstonian words."

vis, somehow you got me to both choke on my breakfast AND laugh loud enough the neighbors could have heard me (and they live in a separate house)!
Storm History Winter Storm Kari
Wednesday and Wednesday night, a somewhat moisture-starved "Alberta Clipper" cold front advanced out of central Canada into the western Great Lakes, dropping snow, and a little light sleet, freezing drizzle and freezing rain. Patchy icy stretches led to some slideoffs on Interstate 94 near Warrens, Wisconsin early Thursday morning.

This particular clipper moved into the interior Northeast on Thursday, spreading a blanket of light snow from northern Michigan to western and central New York to the Appalachians.

As of early Friday morning, most locations from northern Lower Michigan to Maine had picked up 4 inches or less of snow. However, a part of northern Lower Michigan picked up heavier snow, including 6.6 inches in Kalkaska, 6.5 inches in Alba, and 6 inches in Old Mission.

Kari is a Finnish name derived from the Greek name Makarios, from Old Greek meaning blessed or happy.

Quoting 124. Jedkins01:



I've always found this to be a weird index compared to the drought index. We just had between 2 and 4 inches of rain the Tallahassee area last weekend, and almost all of Pinellas County had over 1 inch of rain last weekend as well and neither region is even close to drought and both places have had a lot more rain than south Florida over the past few months.

It must be based on the amount of dead vegetation to burn or something when humidity values are low. I guess maybe Pinellas and the Tallahassee area have more dead vines and things like that compared to some other areas.

I do know that more warm season rain can enhance fire risk in the winter because a lot of seasonal brush and tropical plants like vines will grow more than usual with late summer and Fall rain only to die off in the winter.

This page, Wildland Fire Danger Index (FDI), from the FL Dept of Agriculture and Commerce, discusses the FDI.
So according to this video a Canadian has just climbed the Frozen Niagara falls.


Link

Good Morning Folks. Here is the current big picture over most of Conus and the relative position of the jet per GFS:




Quoting 220. hurricanes2018:



heavy snow for new york city on monday!! last year we had a snow storm on monday last year superbowl the next day heavy snow last year..
'

Quoting 212. LongIslandBeaches:



Er.. ok.. I feel like you launched a lead balloon.

Of course, you could always Jonathan Swift it up and suggest that people in drought-stricken areas eat their offspring. That proposal may be more modest than your rabbits theory.
Greetings LIB..Another aspect of the drought out west is the suddenness of its severity...This is a massive and historic drought that occurred in less than 4 years....This is a good link about what they are doing to ease water restrictions and plan for the future....Link
Quoting LAbonbon:

This page, Wildland Fire Danger Index (FDI), from the FL Dept of Agriculture and Commerce, discusses the FDI.


Yep, yesterday our 37% humidity in the afternoon put us in the high fire danger category here in Fort Myers.
(High fire (available) energy and low humidity = high fire danger)
Quoting 225. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks. Here is the current big picture over most of Conus and the relative position of the jet per GFS:





Neat looking front in the Atlantic..The wider view...

230. MahFL
Quoting 228. Sfloridacat5:



Yep, yesterday our 37% humidity in the afternoon put us in the high fire danger category here in Fort Myers.


There were no fire warnings though:
From NWS Ruskin,
".FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY."

Mr. Henson, just wanted to thank you for an excellent blog post. Sometimes the posts, even with embedded links, are relatively easy to absorb in a short amount of time. This one looks innocuous, at 6 paragraphs and 2 graphs...but looks can be deceiving. This post was loaded with 'meaty', informative links.

In particular, I appreciate the links in the last paragraph to attribution articles, reports and studies. I spent the better part of the evening last night reading through these. I had never read these before, and truly was always a bit confused, and, dare I say it, skeptical, when it came to attributing some extreme events to climate change. The links provided clarified to me how it is possible to either attribute an event to climate change, or to show there is no link.

So, again, thank you. This was a great learning experience.
maybe a big snow storm for new york city on sunday night into monday 12 inches of snow
LOL. Long-range NAM 12z almost looks like a GLC. What a waste.


snow in east haven right now!!
Abnormally Dry Conditions Return To Parts Of South Florida
Overnight, RSMC La Reunion assessed Cyclone Eunice with 10-minute sustained winds of 130kt; in terms of 1-minute winds, this is approximately 150kt. As a result, Cyclone Eunice now holds the title for strongest cyclone on record in the South-West Indian Ocean.

237. bwi
Warmer than expected this morning in DC. 40 degrees at 9am. Guess temps are supposed to fall all day as the wind kicks up and becomes more northerly, but wondering about sufficient cold air for Sunday/Monday?
Quoting 237. bwi:

Warmer than expected this morning in DC. 40 degrees at 9am. Guess temps are supposed to fall all day as the wind kicks up and becomes more northerly, but wondering about sufficient cold air for Sunday/Monday?


Models are trending North with that system. Even parts of PA would see some rain which is definitely no bueno for us.

Winter is over. Ready for spring.
Quoting 238. Drakoen:



Models are trending North with that system. Even parts of PA would see some rain which is definitely no bueno for us.

Winter is over. Ready for spring.


Spring-caster'
240. bwi
Yah, I see now, the models have shifted north overnight. More chance DC will be in the slop sector.
Quoting 240. bwi:

Yah, I see now, the models have shifted north overnight. More chance DC will be in the slop sector.



someone in new york to new haven its going to get lots of snow here
rain glorious rain falling in el paso.......we've now just about doubled our january average with more rain to come today and tomorrow....they've raised our forecast lows...so snow in the early morning hours is now ruled out....after this storm passes through on sat....we're forecast for mid 60's and above next week........
Quoting JRRP:

modoki




there is no modoki EL nino right now we dont event have EL nino right now

and if you read the new update from BOM

Tropical Pacific Ocean moves from El Niño to neutral

Link
hold on here nelly!!!!!!!

what happened to the spring super duper el nino this model was prejecting a few weeks back???????

i guess the experts such as m ventrice who stated that the model was in error due to a bias of the kelvin wave were right....go figure....those pesky experts and their correct assessments

Quoting 241. hurricanes2018:




Sigh....
Quoting 76. Barkeep1967:
Keep mentioning the top 10 warmest statistics and keep neglecting the top 10 coldest. It fits the agenda well

The top 10 coldest years in the NOAA/NCDC dataset were all before 1918:
1911 -0.44C 1
1908 -0.43C 2
1909 -0.43C 2
1910 -0.42C 4
1904 -0.41C 5
1907 -0.39C 6
1912 -0.39C 6
1903 -0.35C 8
1913 -0.35C 8
1917 -0.35C 8

They don't get mentioned often out of malice? An agenda? No, it's because they were 100 years ago.

If there is a point you are trying to make here, it isn't clear at all.
Quoting 209. islander101010:

droughts happened before and will happen again. people need to start taking responsibility and stop having babies like rabbits. buy all the poor folks in the world tv's

By this thought process, should the folks in California, Nevada, Texas, or Oklahoma, where it's been dry, have less children? It seems like whenever a country in Latin America or Africa, or any 'Third World' location is mentioned as having severe weather issues, someone throws out 'lower the population', like that will somehow solve the current situation. In reality, Brazil's current birth rate is not that different from ours in the US, or even some other First World nations.

List of sovereign states and dependent territories by birth rate (Wiki):

2011 List by OECD:

Brazil, #143, birth rate 14.7/1000 people
USA, #166, birth rate 12.7/1000 people

2010 List by World Bank:

Brazil, #122, birth rate 15/1000 people
USA, #134, birth rate 14/1000 people

2013 by CIA World Factbook:

Brazil, #143, birth rate 14.97/1000 people
USA, #137, birth rate 13.66/1000 people

Put another way, Brazil has a birth rate comparable to the US birthrate in the mid-1990s.

And, as of 2010, Brazil's birth rate of 15/1000 is comparable to several US states:

Utah 18.9/1000
Alaska 16.2/1000
Texas 15.4/1000
Idaho 14.8/1000

Blaming population for Brazil's, or anybody else's, water woes is very simplistic. And the unfortunate, beleaguered citizenry make an easy target.
Quoting 247. ScottLincoln:


The top 10 coldest years in the NOAA/NCDC dataset were all before 1918:
1911 -0.44°C 1
1908 -0.43°C 2
1909 -0.43°C 2
1910 -0.42°C 4
1904 -0.41°C 5
1907 -0.39°C 6
1912 -0.39°C 6
1903 -0.35°C 8
1913 -0.35°C 8
1917 -0.35°C 8

They don't get mentioned often out of malice? No, it's because they were 100 years ago.

If there is a point you are trying to make here, it isn't clear at all.

Yeah, wait until you get to his other doozies...NYC under water by 2015 (?!) :D
Well would you look at that! Seems that I'll just be dealing with a cold rain on Sunday continuing into Monday.I really can't wait to get some of those crab cakes and egg benedict.
251. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:



there is no modoki EL nino right now we dont event have EL nino right now

and if you read the new update from BOM

Tropical Pacific Ocean moves from El Niño to neutral

Link

I did not say el niño lol
I only said modoki
Quoting 250. washingtonian115:

Well would you look at that! Seems that I'll just be dealing with a cold rain on Sunday continuing into Monday.I really can't wait to get some of those crab cakes and egg benedict.


Best crab cakes I've ever had were in Maryland, at some place (can't remember the name, but not fancy at all) in Baltimore's Inner Harbor. Sorry, Louisiana, MD wins this category. BTW, Washi, your photo had me practically salivating. Glad to see your plans won't be interrupted.
What if we have a modoki for the 2015 hurricane season?
Quoting 249. LAbonbon:


Yeah, wait until you get to his other doozies...NYC under water by 2015 (?!) :D

They weren't even worth addressing, they just got flagged.
Quoting 254. washingtonian115:

What if we have a modoki for the 2015 hurricane season?


I'll join you, but mine's a bacardi.
They don't get mentioned often out of malice? An agenda? No, it's because they were 100 years ago.

hold on here...you're telling me...that the warmest temp anomalies....are present....and the coldest anomalies....are 100 years past.....


hmmm....yep...conspiracy theory is exactly what i'm saying.....another piece of the puzzle fits into place......darn those people who espouse no climate change...or even the premise we're entering into an ice age....those conspirators are lying to us....OFF WITH THEIR HEADS!!!!!!!



Quoting 253. LAbonbon:



Best crab cakes I've ever had were in Maryland, at some place (can't remember the name, but not fancy at all) in Baltimore's Inner Harbor. Sorry, Louisiana, MD wins this category. BTW, Washi, your photo had me practically salivating. Glad to see your plans won't be interrupted.
I'm glad to! I've been looking forward to the company party.They have good food and I guess that's what keeps the people coming back year after year because the speeches sure don't.
Quoting 254. washingtonian115:

What if we have a modoki for the 2015 hurricane season?



2004-2005 was a modoki, but 2004 in general was one hell of a tornado and hurricane season. However, i don't know of any link between teleconnections and severe weather. Anyway, this link contains quite a few graphs comparing a normal el nino and a modoki el nino.

Link
For those near the Big Bend of Florida, the best crab cakes I have had in these parts is at the Apalachicola Grill in Apalachicola; they also have a mean blackend Grouper sandwich. Best/freshest Apalachicola oysters (some of the best in the world) at Boss Oysters on the river about 1/2 mile away............Worth the drive down on the weekend for lunch.

Where will you find the world's largest fish sandwich? Right here in downtown Apalachicola. Here since 1908, this is where the locals go for lunch and dinner, noshing on blue-crab cakes, seafood gumbo, fresh grouper, shrimp, and hamburgers. The decor is iconic diner, with a giant flamingo on the ceiling for that added Florida charm.
Quoting JRRP:

I did not say el niño lol
I only said modoki



and you missed what i said at the start i said there is no modoki EL nino and then i said we dont even have EL nino
Quoting 254. washingtonian115:

What if we have a modoki for the 2015 hurricane season?
If an El Nino were to form this year , it would probably be a Modoki, if you look at the current ocean temp trends in the Pacific.
Quoting 227. hydrus:

Greetings LIB..Another aspect of the drought out west is the suddenness of its severity...This is a massive and historic drought that occurred in less than 4 years....This is a good link about what they are doing to ease water restrictions and plan for the future....Link


I dig the site. Thanks for the link hydrus, it's been bookmarked.

Among the many interesting factoids (and I've only explored ~5% of the site) was this interesting little nugget in the "news" section:

December storm runoff and close coordination among federal and state agencies to take advantage of it will allow the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to increase expected water deliveries in 2015 to most customers of the State Water Project (SWP) from 10 percent of their requested amounts to 15 percent. The new allocation replaces the initial allocation of 10 percent announced on December 1


I mean, that's bad. Imagine your company telling you this piece of good news: that due to recent economic gains, they will now be able to pay you 15% of your normal annual salary, instead of 10%. Huzzah...
accuweather says they are not buying the north track

Link
If an El Nino were to form this year , it would probably be a Modoki, if you look at the current ocean temp trends in the Pacific.


although i am officially off the el nino bandwagon.......but...if i.....was......hard to say this......WRONG AGAIN....whew....i would think it very well would have a higher chance to be modoki....than traditional
Quoting 250. washingtonian115:

Well would you look at that! Seems that I'll just be dealing with a cold rain on Sunday continuing into Monday.I really can't wait to get some of those crab cakes and egg benedict.

Oooooh. Some good crabcakes. I haven't had some good ol' Maryland crabcakes since June.


And Seriously, why can't we get a storm that stays more south, the rain/snow line is somehwere in Virginia and then Maryland/DC/Southern PA/De/NJ gets blasted by snow. New England had their fun, now its our turn! :p
Quoting 265. weatherlover94:

accuweather says they are not buying the north track

Link
accuweather sucks!! i never watch them videos wait of time!!
Quoting 267. hurricanes2018:




So what happens between 24 hours and 72 hours?


keep making the low more north as we get new modeles!!
Quoting 269. Doppler22:


Oooooh. Some good crabcakes. I haven't had some good ol' Maryland crabcakes since June.


And Seriously, why can't we get a storm that stays more south, the rain/snow line is somehwere in Virginia and then Maryland/DC/Southern PA/De/NJ gets blasted by snow. New England had their fun, now its our turn! :p
You have to just except that this winter will not be like a 2009-2010 or 2013-2014 repeat.We won't get any good snow this winter so you might as well give up while your ahead.
274. redux
Quoting 253. LAbonbon:



Best crab cakes I've ever had were in Maryland, at some place (can't remember the name, but not fancy at all) in Baltimore's Inner Harbor. Sorry, Louisiana, MD wins this category. BTW, Washi, your photo had me practically salivating. Glad to see your plans won't be interrupted.


faidleys in Lexington market or GET OUT.

in all seriousness you probably went to Phillips?
Quoting 273. washingtonian115:

You have to just except that this winter will be just like a 2009-2010 or 2013-2014 repeat.We won't get any good snow this winter so you might as well give up while your ahead.

Lol, why use those two Winters as an example? those two were good Winters :p The two two foot snowstorms in 2009-2010 and 70" total 2013-2014. Did you mean that this Winter won't be a repeat of those two??
Here is the Western flank of Conus; that looks like quite the potential system off the NW Pacific coast headed inbound:

Quoting 275. Doppler22:


Lol, why use those two Winters as an example? those two were good Winters :p The two two foot snowstorms in 2009-2010 and 70" total 2013-2014. Did you mean that this Winter won't be a repeat of those two??
I mean that if you are looking for a average or even slight above average snow season then it would appear that if you live in the Mid-Atlantic that we won't be seeing any good snow this year.Maybe you may end up seeing at least some action but for us in D.C south its about to be pretty much over.So I'm ready for spring to appear so I can get back to doing more outside activities again rather than deal with useless cold spells after one another and useless rainstorms.
One year later, officials, residents remember ice storm

By KARI C. BARLOW | Daily News
Published: Thursday, January 29, 2015 at 06:04 PM.

William Schenck caught this photo of a brave soul ice sledding down the Cinco Bayou bridge.

One year ago, the Emerald Coast was frozen solid.

Residents woke to a world of white after an unprecedented winter storm blanketed the area in ice, sleet and freezing rain.

“It’s much nicer this year,” Okaloosa County Public Safety Director Dino Villani said. “We hope that continues.”

The winter storm closed schools and crippled the county’s roads and bridges.

Driving, even for Northern transplants, was dangerous, and officials urged folks to stay at home.

“That was the most important thing at the time, and that’s how we got through it,” he said.

Villani said the county learned some lessons on the fly during the storm.

“Every time you go through an issue like that, you learn the things you did right, what you did wrong,” he said. “Where we really improved was making contact with our ... first responders, those out in the field and getting real-time road conditions.”

Mostly, the storm left thousands of Floridians feeling more than a little out of their depth.

Lindsey Tennimon said her children — 5-year-old Lauren and 2-year-old Tre — “were both quite confused.”

“My kids left their Elmo (toy) outside the day before and when they went to retrieve it, he was frozen solid into the ground!” she posted on the Daily News Facebook Page.

Emily Campbell posted that her children collected icicles from the backyard and saved them in zip-lock bags to keep as mementos.

“They had so much fun that day,” she said.

Lots of kids — young and old — got creative, using everything from laundry baskets to trashcan lids as makeshift sleds. They braved hills in Crestview and bridges in Fort Walton Beach, Destin and Cinco Bayou.

“My kids took off their wheel on their skate board and were sliding down hills,” posted Laura Mobley. “I wish I had taken pictures.”
Quoting 274. redux:



faidleys in Lexington market or GET OUT.

in all seriousness you probably went to Phillips?

I don't think I've been to Faidley's, but their website makes me want to try it. I think I've been to Phillips - it was good, but can't remember what I ate (long time ago).

The crab cake was in a food court at the Inner Harbor, NW corner of the Harbor. Literally a walk up place - order, sit with all the other shoppers, etc. Very unassuming place, but we were short on time and a bit frugal on that trip. Turns out it was delicious, and we went back for more the next day.

On a completely different note, it's 52F here, and overcast.
Quoting 208. StormTrackerScott:



We might get our average February rainfall in just 2 days next week. Euro ensembles look very at the next 2 weeks across ALL of FL not just C & N FL.


The 12Z GFS seems to be backing off on rain totals for C FL. The same thing happened during yesterday's 12Z run, and then totals increased again for the 6Z. I guess we'll just have to wait and see as the event gets closer. For now, it looks like a beautiful weekend ahead.
12z GFS putting the nails in our warm snowless coffins. Will wait for the rest of the 12z suite before going 6 ft under.

10 inches North of the Mason-Dixon line and a mix/rain mess here.
282. beell
Well-defined dry slot for the next system.

Quoting 282. beell:

Well-defined dry slot for the next system.




I hope it catches us. Shows up on the NAM too.
Atlanta on notice with the 12Z GFS. 8 Days advanced notice might not be enough for Atlanta.
Hopefully, this cold weather doesn't materialize. I want it to stay warm in my area.
Quoting 281. Drakoen:

12z GFS putting the nails in our warm snowless coffins. Will wait for the rest of the 12z suite before going 6 ft under.

10 inches North of the Mason-Dixon line and a mix/rain mess here.
For my sake I hope the trend continues.
This northward trend with all the models over the past 12 hours puts locations that were hard hit by the Blizzard of 2015 potentially in play for some snow, especially the farther south and east you are in New England. The Ohio River Valley looks to do well.

But once again a track like this screws the DC area. Better luck next time.
Major freeze for New England coming up.
Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared

REASON: Super Bowl support


Link


Should NFL pay for this support?
Quoting 287. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This northward trend with all the models over the past 12 hours puts locations that were hard hit by the Blizzard of 2015 potentially in play for some snow, especially the farther south and east you are in New England. The Ohio River Valley looks to do well.

But once again a track like this screws the DC area. Better luck next time.


We all know they need another foot on top of the 3 feet they already have. Probably won't even notice the difference.


Front advancing through C FL.
292. beell
Quoting 283. Drakoen:



I hope it catches us. Shows up on the NAM too.


It should. And it just gets worse.
:(

My post from early yesterday morning had a bit of wiggle room for snow just to the north of DC. Need more wiggle!

190. beell
12:36 PM GMT on January 29, 2015

DC may get some respectable snow this Sunday/Monday. At present, a generally weak system-but perhaps some enhancement provided by a coupling of the sub-tropical and polar jets. 6"? Surface temps should dip below freezing at some point Sunday night to allow accumulation. it will be close. Maybe just to the N of DC.


Maybe some lighter wrap-around.


Winter Storm Kari picture from east haven


more snow coming soon
19 Jan 2015 1005.36 1010.05 -43.80 -7.20 -7.33

if you remember a few weeks ago a blogger posted the daily value of the SOI correctly noting the daily value was the highest that it had been in months...however making the mistake that it was in direct correlation of the strength of el nino.......

skyepony a few posts later detailed how it was caused by a tropical system.....not a result of el nino like conditions in the ENSO region.....

todays daily value.....

30 Jan 2015 1010.92 1006.45 -0.60 -8.83 -8.26

the ENSO blog by NOAA explains this well in their latest edition here
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ023-041-310115-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.150201T0900Z-150202T1700Z/
/O.CON.KPBZ.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-150131T0000Z/
/O.CON.KPBZ.WC.Y.0003.150131T0000Z-150131T1500Z/
GARRETT-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...
CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...KINGWOOD...PARSONS
1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UP TO 6 INCHES.

* ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* SNOW ENDING...THIS EVENING.

* SNOW AND ICE BEGINNING AGAIN...SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW
AND ICE.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 15 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...FROST BITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE POSSIBLE IF PRECAUTIONS
ARE NOT TAKEN

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION.

7 day precip graph shows the lower southwest receiving in a week close to their 3 month averages....if this verifies it will prove the CPC winter outlook for the southern southwest correct....

Quoting 289. nrtiwlnvragn:

Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared

REASON: Super Bowl support


Link


Should NFL pay for this support?

I don't really understand the 'Super Bowl support' reason. Guidelines for CWA:

DEFINITION: A critical weather event is defined as any of the following occurring on/near the coast of or within the United States and its territories (including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam):

1. A widespread tornado outbreak;

2. A storm system causing a major precipitation event;

3. A severe cold-season storm affecting a large area with widespread heavy snow, freezing rain, or blizzard conditions; or

4. A tropical system threatening the coastline or producing excessive rainfall after moving inland.

Super Bowl Sunday does have widespread snow (not sure if it meets #2 or #3 above)...so if that's the reason, why not state that?





Winter Storm Watch for Chicago
The oldest Daughter is on the way to Tally right now in the car from ATL with her new Gibson Les Paul and we are headed to my guitar tech for a set-up later this afternoon. Play time and headed home from the office shortly. Want to wish everyone on the Blog a safe weather weekend and just posting the latest shots below of the 3 tropical systems currently in the Pacific and Indian Ocean......................Just the reminder that it is summer in the Southern Hemisphere......................See Yall Next Week.

Eunice in the South Indian Ocean

Diamondra in the South Indian Ocean


99P in the South Pacific


Quoting 298. LAbonbon:


I don't really understand the 'Super Bowl support' reason. Guidelines for CWA:

DEFINITION: A critical weather event is defined as any of the following occurring on/near the coast of or within the United States and its territories (including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam):

1. A widespread tornado outbreak;

2. A storm system causing a major precipitation event;

3. A severe cold-season storm affecting a large area with widespread heavy snow, freezing rain, or blizzard conditions; or

4. A tropical system threatening the coastline or producing excessive rainfall after moving inland.

Super Bowl Sunday does have widespread snow (not sure if it meets #2 or #3 above)...so if that's the reason, why not state that?






Guess it falls under "significant non-weather event"

National Special Security Event (NSSE)

Link
UKMET 12z is even farther northwest. Anymore Northwest and it will cut through Michigan. I'm almost hoping for that.
Quoting ricderr:
7 day precip graph shows the lower southwest receiving in a week close to their 3 month averages....if this verifies it will prove the CPC winter outlook for the southern southwest correct....



It was pouring this morning at the outdoor live events leading up to Superbowl.


It was pouring this morning at the outdoor live events leading up to Superbowl.

yes.....that front should be moving through el paso this evening
306. beell
When will our weather ever learn that it is the "Indexes" that drive the synoptics?
;/
Good evening with - brrrr - very cold news from Siberia:



Astonishing pictures show Siberian town left encased in ice as temperatures drop to -40C [-40F]
A Siberian town’s streets have frozen solid after a water main burst during a snowstorm
The Telegraph, By Mark Molloy, 10:50AM GMT 29 Jan 2015
If the British winter weather and leaves on the line are getting you down, then spare a thought for the residents of this Siberian town.
It’s ‘snowmaggedon’ almost every day for the inhabitants of Dudinka, in central Siberia, where temperatures can plummet to a bone-chilling -40C when the sun goes down.
A state of emergency has been declared in the town after a powerful storm knocked out power lines on 14 January, leaving thousands without water, electricity and heating.
The extreme weather also caused a major water main to burst, turning several streets into slabs of ice.
Extraordinary pictures of the town’s roads show many vehicles encased in several feet of ice and snow, frozen into the road.
308. beell
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...ON A MULTI-DAY BASIS TRENDS HAVE BEEN FROM WEAK/FAST TO SLOWER/STRONGER BACK
TO WEAK/FAST AND NOW TO MODERATELY STRONG/SLOW BUT NOT QUITE TO THE POINT OF THE
MAJORITY CLUSTER FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT RUNS...
Quoting 306. beell:

When will our weather ever learn that it is the "Indexes" that drive the synoptics?
;/


When will we stop believing teleconnections from models that can't forecast their way out of a paper bag even in the short range.

Now every time I see a mean 500mb map posted that shows favorable teleconnections, I just laugh and wait for it to change when it's within 2 days of the event.
Quoting 302. Drakoen:

UKMET 12z is even farther northwest. Anymore Northwest and it will cut through Michigan. I'm almost hoping for that.
this mean notting if a new low off the east coast and moving up the northeast
Quoting 289. nrtiwlnvragn:

Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared

REASON: Super Bowl support


Link


Should NFL pay for this support?


oh my goodness...yes. if they can pay for extra security for their balls then i think they might have enough pocket change for support. :)
312. beell
Quoting 309. Drakoen:



When will we stop believing teleconnections from models that can't forecast their way out of a paper bag even in the short range.

Now every time I see a mean 500mb map posted that shows favorable teleconnections, I just laugh and wait for it to change when it's within 2 days of the event.


PDE's used in NWP's may not be keeping pace with the increases in resolution. Do they update those to reflect a warming climate?
I've named Winter Storm Godzilla on my local list and is expected to give me 1" of wet snow. Any thoughts? I also noticed Eunice is the SW Indian Ocean's strongest storm (Wind).
Quoting 312. beell:



PDE's used in NWP's may not be keeping pace with the increases in resolution. Do they update those to reflect a warming climate?


This is exactly what I was wondering this morning. Great minds think alike?

Anyone want to solve the Navier-Stokes equations in 3-dimensions analytically for us? Be our guest.
Winter Storm Linus Will Deliver Large Swath of Snow Across the Country
As we plow (sometimes literally) through the heart of winter, the atmosphere is starting to toss out winter storms left and right.

We had Winter Storm Juno earlier in the week, and Winter Storm Kari is now sweeping into New England. Next, Winter Storm Linus is expected to bring a swath of moderate snow from the Plains through the Midwest and into the Northeast through Monday.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1242 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-3112 00-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1242 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A LIGHT FREEZE IS FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR...WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO
AROUND 30.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER TWENTIES OVER THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 30 CLOSER TO THE
INTERSTATE 10.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

Anyone want to solve the Navier-Stokes equations in 3-dimensions analytically for us? Be our guest.


with periodic or non periodoc pressure?
Quoting 122. sar2401:

Out on my backyard deck, the summer Milky Way is bright enough to cast shadows once your eyes get adapted. I'd guess it has a Bortle rating in the mid-3's. In 10 minutes, I can be at a nice site along our big lake that is probably closer to a 2.

How about you?


The top selection criteria for my current residence was not dark sky.

The top ranking criteria were proximity to employment, public transit, shopping, beach and wildland. By those criteria it's very successful. :^D

I will say that at a spot less than 2 hours drive from here I've seen the zodiacal band which is a qualifier for the top Bortle rating of 1.
Quoting 119. aquak9:

(And Alabama doesn't have earthquakes that reduce your unopened PopTarts to crumbs, either.)

(Or break the eggs inside of your fridge)

(or make your car bounce out of it's parking spot)

.
Quoting 123. PedleyCA:



Didn't have any of those issues, But the Northridge Earthquake did knock a puzzle out of the cupboard and a bottle of cooking oil fell in it and of course broke, big mess. Did I mention, don't make bookcases out of cinder blocks and boards, bad Idea..... lol
Quoting 135. sar2401:

Don't use them as the base for a workbench in the garage and then park your almost brand new car next to it either. I had no idea one of those big Sears toolboxes could fly that far...or make such a big hole in sheet metal. :-)

The Northridge quake reduced everything in my kitchen cabinets to shards of glass and china. The 8" tall bookcase flopped down and encyclopedia volumes were pitched clear across the living room.

Now all my bookcases are less than 3 feet high except for the one 8 footer which is anchored to wall studs and only paperbacks go on its highest shelves.
Quoting 315. hurricanes2018:

Next, Winter Storm Linus is expected to bring a swath of moderate snow from the Plains through the Midwest and into the Northeast through Monday.
Security Blanket the Northeast?
Feels like a tropical storm outside.
Quoting 317. ricderr:

Anyone want to solve the Navier-Stokes equations in 3-dimensions analytically for us? Be our guest.


with periodic or non periodoc pressure?



Let's not even pretend like you broke out the pencil and paper.
Quoting 314. Drakoen:



This is exactly what I was wondering this morning. Great minds think alike?

Anyone want to solve the Navier-Stokes equations in 3-dimensions analytically for us? Be our guest.

The Navier-Stokes equations do not include water vapor, otherwise point valid.

The highest resolution models now solve the full set of seven equations in seven unknowns. Lower resolution (and that includes all global models) replace the prognostic equation for vertical momentum with a diagnostic
for vertical velocity and assume hydrostatic atmosphere. We do not have enough computer power yet
to resolve the scales where vertical acceleration is significant in a global model. We soon will. And yet this
paragraph is just for the dynamics.

The physics, which includes convection, turbulence, radiation, cloud processes, and various subgrid scale processes, is even tougher and takes much longer to describe. The majority of advances in models have been in this area and in initialization algorithms to provide better initial conditions. There are many challenging opportunities for meteorologists who like math, and also for mathematicians, physicists, chemists and others outside our field with strong science and math backgrounds to improve all of the above.
Whole Europe is in the grip of monster trough "Mischka" right now with very low pressure:


Geop. 500 and surface pressure in the Northern Hemisphere according to our new German global weather model "ICON" (now with updates on meteociel.fr every 6 hours).

While the low already dumped a lot of snow especially onto mountainous regions, surface temperatures aren't that cold (compared to the very cold air aloft). In some lower regions like mine in Rhine valley there isn't any snow at all. In fact, our German National Weather Service DWD said in a press release today that the whole month of January once again has been too mild compared to average.


Surface temps in Celsius at 18h UTC according to ICON. Blue colors (and purple and black ones of course) indicate freezing temps.

Nevertheless, with the polar jet stream screaming south into the Mediterranean very wild weather is in the offing for them (I've posted some maps yesterday evening). There are already a lot of reports and videos available, showing today's severe weather with the usual damage; here only a short one from Naples/Italy:




European weather action right now. You can see where the jet stream is blowing, I guess.
Quoting 322. washingtonian115:

Feels like a tropical storm outside.


But not tropical :-)


just updated - bullseye right over Sar's house :)
Quoting 306. beell:

When will our weather ever learn that it is the "Indexes" that drive the synoptics?
;/


It's Newton's laws plus thermodynamics plus the gas laws plus properties of water vapor plus radiation that drive them both.
Quoting 312. beell:



PDE's used in NWP's may not be keeping pace with the increases in resolution. Do they update those to reflect a warming climate?


No. The PDEs for the dynamics are complete and have been known since the late 19'th century. There are scales we can't resolve which have to be parameterized and turbulence remains a fundamental unresolved problem in all of fluid dynamics.

Physical parameterizations have to evolve with resolution as scales increasingly get explicitly resolved and new smaller scales (both space and time) become significant.
Quoting 317. ricderr:

Anyone want to solve the Navier-Stokes equations in 3-dimensions analytically for us? Be our guest.


with periodic or non periodoc pressure?



I solved it: Answer: 42.
331. beell
Quoting 329. georgevandenberghe:



No. The PDEs for the dynamics are complete and have been known since the late 19'th century. There are scales we can't resolve which have to be parameterized and turbulence remains a fundamental unresolved problem in all of fluid dynamics.

Physical parameterizations have to evolve with resolution as scales increasingly get explicitly resolved and new smaller scales (both space and time) become significant.


Thank you, George. My question was poorly framed.

the dynamics are complete and have been known since the late 19'th century.

I knew that.

You cleared that up quite nicely.!
Quoting 324. georgevandenberghe:


The Navier-Stokes equations do not include water vapor, otherwise point valid.

The highest resolution models now solve the full set of seven equations in seven unknowns. Lower resolution (and that includes all global models) replace the prognostic equation for vertical momentum with a diagnostic
for vertical velocity and assume hydrostatic atmosphere. We do not have enough computer power yet
to resolve the scales where vertical acceleration is significant in a global model. We soon will. And yet this
paragraph is just for the dynamics.

The physics, which includes convection, turbulence, radiation, cloud processes, and various subgrid scale processes, is even tougher and takes much longer to describe. The majority of advances in models have been in this area and in initialization algorithms to provide better initial conditions. There are many challenging opportunities for meteorologists who like math, and also for mathematicians, physicists, chemists and others outside our field with strong science and math backgrounds to improve all of the above.



I know that but the models do use a version of the Navier-Stokes equations.
Tazewell County Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio

Winter Storm Watch

Statement as of 12:01 PM CST on January 30, 2015

...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday evening...

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a Winter Storm Watch...which is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday evening.

* Timing...snow will develop over the area Saturday night and continue through Sunday evening.

* Accumulations...totals of 6 to 7 inches possible north of I-70...with 7 to 9 inches possible north of a Jacksonville to Danville line.

* Wind...gusty north to northwest winds of up to 25 mph Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening could cause blowing and drifting of the snow.

* Impacts...beginning Saturday night...roads will become snow covered and hazardous. Visibilities could become poor due to the blowing and drifting of the snow...especially in open areas and out in the country.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Auten
Let's not even pretend like you broke out the pencil and paper.



nahhhh....i'd grab the calculator......however...back in the day we used our handy dandy slide rule
Quoting 330. Astrometeor:



I solved it: Answer: 42.

Ah, I see you have discerned the answer. However, the question keeps evolving. I'd suggest revisits of the question at least every decade, as I have since the first publication of the first. I do admit that I have yet to read the sixth.
Quoting LowerCal:

The top selection criteria for my current residence was not dark sky.

The top ranking criteria were proximity to employment, public transit, shopping, beach and wildland. By those criteria it's very successful. :^D

I will say that at a spot less than 2 hours drive from here I've seen the zodiacal band which is a qualifier for the top Bortle rating of 1.
Apropos of almost nothing, I've been all around the country, but the absolute darkest skies I've seen in the Lower 48 were in and around Big Bend NP in Texas. The zodiacal light was bright and obvious for a few hours before sunrise and after sunset, and the gegenschein was also there, dimmer, though pretty much connected to the ZL. One of the wildest things, however, was seeing passing clouds not as grayish ghosts floating in front of the stars, but rather as eerie, ill-defined, blacked-out voids where no stars shown through, since there is virtually nothing to underlight the bottoms of those clouds. The area is a solid 1 on the Bortle scale, and a certified gold-tier dark sky park. It's also the Northern Hemisphere's southernmost International Dark Sky Park; it's so far south, in fact, and the horizon is so clear, that three of the four stars in the Southern Cross are generally visible a few hours each night each winter and spring. There are a lot of rules and regulations that prevent light pollution, and the state seems pretty intent on keeping it that way.
NAM 18z warm as ever like the UKMET even pushes rain into NYC.
Quoting 330. Astrometeor:



I solved it: Answer: 42.

Ah, come on, go take a hike :)
Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
342 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

PAZ024-033-310845-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.150201T1700Z-150202T1700Z/
/O.CON.KCTP.WC.Y.0003.150131T0000Z-150131T1600Z/
CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET
342 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILLS...10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE TO EXPOSED SKIN IN 30 MINUTES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES. YOUNG CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND THE HOMELESS ARE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE COLD. APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD BE
TAKEN TO ENSURE PETS HAVE ADEQUATE PROTECTION FROM THE COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

Looks like the mission will be a success Sunday.
Quoting 337. Drakoen:

NAM 18z warm as ever like the UKMET even pushes rain into NYC.



Blizzard down-caster'
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 306. beell:

When will our weather ever learn that it is the "Indexes" that drive the synoptics?
;/



Blame the block linear error correcting codes


I told Grothar those needed tweaking before He lit the big bang.

Quoting 338. European58:


Ah, come on, go take a hike :)
Check out The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
Quoting 330. Astrometeor:



I solved it: Answer: 42.


As they say on my son's algebra homework "Show your work"
347. vis0

Quoting 315. hurricanes2018:

Winter Storm Linus Will Deliver Large Swath of Snow Across the Country
As we plow (sometimes literally) through the heart of winter, the atmosphere is starting to toss out winter storms left and right.

We had Winter Storm Juno earlier in the week, and Winter Storm Kari is now sweeping into New England. Next, Winter Storm Linus is expected to bring a swath of moderate snow from the Plains through the Midwest and into the Northeast through Monday.
shouldn't be bring a "blanket" of snow...
348. vis0

Quoting 334. ricderr:

Let's not even pretend like you broke out the pencil and paper.



nahhhh....i'd grab the calculator......however...back in the day we used our handy dandy slide rule
ah, in 5th grade we had a teacher wanting us to pick up the knowledge of the slide rule to prepare us for JHS, he ordered 39, instead we received 39 slide whistles, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEOOOOOOOOOOOOOH
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Quoting 357. Josihua2:

9
Quoting 358. Josihua2:


Quoting 358. Josihua2:


Quoting 359. Josihua2:


Quoting 359. Josihua2:


Quoting 359. Josihua2:


Quoting 359. Josihua2:


Quoting 360. Josihua2:


Quoting 359. Josihua2:


Quoting 362. Josihua2:


Quoting 363. Josihua2:


Quoting 364. Josihua2:


Quoting 365. Josihua2:


Quoting 366. Josihua2: