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Blizzard of 2015 Brings 2 - 3' of Snow and Questions About Forecast Accuracy

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:02 PM GMT on January 28, 2015

The snows from the Blizzard of 2015 have finally ended over most of New England, leaving some truly historic snowfall totals. The biggest snows hit Central Massachusetts, with three feet measured at Auburn, Hudson, and Lunenburg. More than two feet of snow fell across five other states, with 33.2" at Nashua, NH; 30" at Orient, NY; 28.5" at Burrillville, RI; 31.5" at Sanford, ME; and 34.1" at Winthrop, CT. Some superlatives for stations with a long period of snow records:

Worcester, Massachusetts: All-time record snowfall (34.5")
Boston, Massachusetts: 6th heaviest snowstorm (24.4")
Providence, Rhode Island: 4th heaviest (19.1")
Portland, Maine: 4th heaviest (19.1")
Blue Hill Observatory, SE Massachusetts: 2nd heaviest (30.8")


Figure 1. A combination of the day-night band and high resolution infrared imagery from the Suomi NPP satellite shows the blizzard near peak intensity as it moves over the New York through Boston Metropolitan areas at 06:45Z (1:45 am EST) on January 27, 2015. The nighttime lights of the region are blurred by the high cloud tops associated with the most intense parts of the storm. Visit NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab for a spectacular hi-res version of the image.

The top six snowstorms on record in Boston, Massachusetts since 1890:

1. 27.6" Feb 17-18, 2003
2. 27.1" Feb 6-7, 1978
3. 25.8" Feb 24-26, 1969
4. 25.4" Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997
5. 24.9" Feb 8-9, 2013
6. 24.6" Jan 26-28, 2015

The top seven snowstorms on record in Providence, Rhode Island, since 1905:

1. 28.6" Feb 6-7, 1978
2. 23.4" Jan 22-23, 2005
3. 22.8" Jan 7-8, 1996
4. 19.1" Jan 26-28, 2015
5. 18.9" Feb 14-16, 1962
6. 18.3" Feb 3-4, 1961
7. 18.0" Feb 8-9, 2013

The top 4 snowstorms on record in Portland, ME:

1) 31.9" Feb. 8-9, 2013
2) 27.1" Jan. 17-18, 1979
3) 25.3" Feb. 17-18, 1952
4) 23.8" Jan 26-28, 2015

The Blue Hill Observatory in Southeast Massachusetts, with snowfall records going back to 1885, recorded 30.8"--its second greatest snowstorm on record. Their top 5 snowstorms on record:

1. 38.7" Feb 24-28, 1969
2. 30.8" Jan 26-28, 2015
3. 30.3" Mar 3-5, 1960
4. 30.1" Feb 6-7, 1978
5. 30.0" Mar 31 - Apr 1, 1997

The storm's powerful winds, gusting as high as 78 mph at Nantucket Island, brought a significant storm surge to the coast. As storm surge that peaked at 4.51' at 15:18 UTC January 27 hit Nantucket Island, flooding downtown Nantucket to a depth of 3.5'. The storm surge at Boston Harbor peaked at 4.78' at 16:12 UTC January 27, and caused damage to buildings and roads all along the Southeast Massachusetts coast.

There will be no rest for snow-weary New Englanders in the near future. A clipper-type system will drop light to occasionally moderate snow across the Northeast on Friday - Saturday, followed by an intense shot of bitter cold. The extended-range models suggest a much stronger system early next week, a potential nor'easter that could deliver heavy precipitation from the mid-Atlantic to Maine. There are still major uncertainties about timing, location, and precipitation type, as this storm will carry a good bit of warm, moist air--and our experience with this week's storm (see discussion below) should give us pause before jumping too quickly on any particular model solution.

An extreme jet stream pattern brought blizzard to the Northeast, record January warmth to the West
This week's Northeast U.S. blizzard was triggered by an unusually extreme jet stream pattern, featuring a sharp ridge of high pressure along the U.S. West Coast and a deep trough of low pressure diving to the south over the Northeast United States. This configuration allowed cold air to spill out of the Arctic behind the trough to feed into the blizzard, while at the same time allowing anomalously warm air to flow northwards across the Western U.S., a contrast that’s been playing out repeatedly across the nation for more than a year. More than 40 daily record highs and 7 monthly highs were tied or broken last weekend in California, Oregon, and Washington, according to NOAA’s U.S. records website; most notably, Death Valley, California hit a remarkable 87° on Sunday, tying its record for warmest January day on record. Many more records were smashed across a broader swath of western and central states early this week. East Rapid City, SD, had its warmest January low on record Monday, dipping only to 50°F, and Denver, CO, saw its warmest temperature for any January day in 127 years, with a balmy 75°F on Tuesday (exceeded only by a 76°F reading on the same date in 1888.) Numerous stations set or tied records for all-time warmest January day on record Monday and Tuesday:

North Platte. NE (74°)
Imperial, NE (77°)
Valentine, NE (72°)
Goodland, KS (79°)
Hill City, KS (83°)
Colby, KS (82°)
Great Falls, MT (67°)

…and a number of daily records were broken by impressive margins on Tuesday, including:

Dickinson, ND: 61°F (old record 51°F)
Oklahoma City, OK: 78°F (old record 71°F)
Russell, KS: 83°F (old record 65°F)


Figure 2. An extreme jet stream patten observed at 7 am EST (12 UTC) on January 27, 2015. Color-coded wind speeds at a pressure of 300 mb (roughly 9,000 meters or 30,000 feet) show the axis of the jet stream over North America, with a large upside-down "U"-shaped ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. All-time record high temperatures for the month of January were observed over several locations in the Western U.S. underneath this ridge. The strongest winds of the jet stream (orange colors, 160 knots) were observed over the Southeast Canada, downstream from where a strong "U"-shaped trough of low pressure was anchored. The surface low pressure system associated with this trough brought the Blizzard of 2015 to the Northeast U.S. As I've discussed many times (most recently in my April 2014 post, California Drought/Polar Vortex Jet Stream Pattern Linked to Global Warming), extreme jet steam patterns like this one have increased in recent years. I wrote a story for the December 2014 issue of Scientific American called, "Is the Jet Stream Getting Weird?" which discusses how climate change could potentially be responsible for this increase in extreme jet stream patterns. Recent runs of the GFS and European models point to a highly amplified jet stream pattern continuing over North America and spreading to Europe next week, which will produce a variety of extreme weather over both continents. This image was generated from the 12 UTC January 27, 2015 run of the GFS model, and plotted using our wundermap.

The NYC forecast: Moving from diagnosis to treatment
The underwhelming snow totals in New York City are on track to become one of the most famous U.S. forecast “busts” of the 21st century. Many journalists, bloggers, and meteorologists donned their rear-view goggles on Tuesday to analyze what went wrong. Most of them, including the New York Times, correctly observed that in the big picture, this wasn’t a bust at all. NWS computer models and public outlooks captured the nor’easter as a whole--including its extreme intensity--remarkably well. The record snowfalls in eastern Massachusetts bore out the pre-storm designation of “historic.” The devil lay in the details of predicting where the storm’s west edge would be, as a dramatic gradient in snowfall totals (which forecasters did anticipate) ended up being overlaid atop the nation’s largest metro area. As discussed in our post yesterday, forecast models diverged markedly on where to place that crucial western edge. In turn, there were sharp differences among various forecast sources on what would happen in New York City, even as late as Monday evening. In a press conference with reporters on Tuesday, NWS director Louis Uccellini strongly defended his agency’s science and staff while acknowledging, “We all know in this business you’re only as good as your last forecast.”

Clearly, the outcome for New York was more uncertain than for Boston, where there was much greater model agreement on the risk of two to three feet of snow. Probabilistic tools, such as the SREF plume featured in our post yesterday, are one way that the NWS captures such distinctions. Another is the nationwide probabilistic winter weather outlooks issued by the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center twice each day. Some NWS local offices also provide experimental online graphics showing the potential best- and worst-case outcomes. “This is an important step forward,” noted Jason Samenow (Capital Weather Gang), “but these pages are difficult to find on their Web sites, and this information is not included in public forecasts.” The University of Washington’s Cliff Mass summarized the New York forecast and its implications in his blog: " . . .the NWS has to move to a much more probabilistic form of forecasting preparation and dissemination, one in which forecast uncertainties are made clear to users. The computer workstations used by NWS forecasters and NWS websites are not designed to facilitate probabilistic prediction. This needs to change."

Regardless of how well probabilities are assessed and conveyed, it’s still up to the recipients of forecasts to make critical yes/no decisions. University of Georgia’s Marshall Shepherd put it this way in a Weather Underground blog post: “There is more risk and nuance in weather forecasts than the public is interested in consuming, so it is a challenge to craft a message that gets attention, is not 'hype', yet has actionable information. We must continue to have the discussion about how to communicate uncertainty and risk effectively.” Social scientists are increasingly collaborating with NOAA on research-based strategies for improving how forecasts are communicated. NCAR’s Julie Demuth has been involved in such work on hurricanes and tornadoes. According to Demuth, though, “very, very little social science work has been done on winter weather events.” There’s also the growing problem of information overload. Weather forecasters have to sift through an enormous amount of data under intense stress and time pressure. Consumers have to reconcile what they hear about an impending storm from public and private outlets, family and friends, colleagues, and other sources, and then decide how and when to act. Analyzing this complex chain of events isn’t an overnight project, but the recent experience in New York suggests that taking the time to learn how best to convey winter storm threats could be well worth the effort.


Figure 3. 8:20 am Brooklyn, Tuesday January 27. Three days of emergency food stockpiled for this? A Brooklyn streetscape early on Tuesday morning in the wake of less-than-expected snowfall. Image credit: wunderphotographer hartKitt.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
Juno's Aftermath
Juno's Aftermath
COUSIN ADOLF PLOWIN'
COUSIN ADOLF PLOWIN'

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Nothing like the double Boston snowstorms in February 2003 I hope.
Quoting Bon Henson and Jeff Masters:
Social scientists are increasingly collaborating with NOAA on research-based strategies for improving how forecasts are communicated. NCAR’s Julie Demuth has been involved in such work on hurricanes and tornadoes. According to Demuth, though, “very, very little social science work has been done on winter weather events.” There’s also the growing problem of information overload. Weather forecasters have to sift through an enormous amount of data under intense stress and time pressure. Consumers have to reconcile what they hear about an impending storm from public and private outlets, family and friends, colleagues, and other sources, and then decide how and when to act. Analyzing this complex chain of events isn’t an overnight project, but the recent experience in New York suggests that taking the time to learn how best to convey winter storm threats could be well worth the effort.
And therein lies the rub, does it not?

It's not at all an understatement to claim that some simply don't understand--or even recognize--that complexity. Would that they did...
good blog
Carried over from the previous blog:

Quoting 375. hurricanes2018:



in boston

In regards to Boston's snowfall...I'm more amazed by the reported 31" in South Boston. Have no clue what the record there is, but that's a LOT of snow for there.
Kudos to Dr. Masters for not using the "media name" for the storm. I did want to say in general, however, that I tend to trust the Weather Underground forecasts more so than the "big media" guys like A***weather, who I feel tend to hype up their forecasts in order to get more attention for their "brand." Even the conservative old National Weather Service has been closer to true snowfall totals (as one example) than many other outlets in years past. I can't tell you how many times I have seen and heard radio and news locally (southeast Michigan) whoop and holler about these massive snowfall amounts expected, only to wake up the next morning to a life-altering two inches of snow on the ground.

Keep up the good work. We appreciate it!
This will most likely bring more snow to areas that have to much already..

I had the absolute last comment on the previous blog entry so I am reposting it:

Lots of interesting takes on those who "busted" and those who got punched in the face. I got 28", it snowed very hard from 0200 Tuesday morning until 2000 Tuesday night. Plenty of drifting, colossal snow banks, etc. Lots of people on edge up here in Maine as we are supposed to get another 4 to 6 inches on Friday (which could easily turn into 6 to 10 if the storm winds up just an hour earlier). Then signs point to potentially another 1 to 2 feet on Monday. I could pick up five feet of snow between yesterdays storm and the two upcoming storms. It could also all fall apart and be nothing (which is what we all really want), but a good bet is that our current "way to much friggin snow" situation is just going to get worse.
Quoting 2. Neapolitan:

And therein lies the rub, does it not?

It's not at all an understatement to claim that some simply don't understand--or even recognize--that complexity. Would that they did...
Yep. Just to think how much work went into a weather forecast before the models. A time when all there was were observations communicated by phone and radio. Hand drawing weather charts was a requirement , time consuming , arduous and difficult...Meteorologists past and present deserve much more appreciation than they receive...JMO
That "extreme jet stream pattern" also brought chilly and wet weather as far south as Costa Rica -- temps in the upper 50s and nearly 2-3/4 inches of rain here in the last 24 hours. Translate that to snow at 11" per inch and it nearly equals Worcester's record fall. Thank goodness the tropics are at least a little warmer!
Great Blog on the current issue and thanks for the detailed breakdown. This particular situation, in terms of forecasting the thickest snow bands and locations, is difficult to predict with exact certainty. Same analogy can be said for the training bands of a tropical storm making landfall. We often know the general point of landfall, and the models can extrapolate estimated rainfall totals over a large swatch, but once the low starts moving inland, training bands (from the Gulf in the case of Gulf storms) often form over a particular area and can pummel that narrow band with much more rain than forecast overall. That happened with Tropical Storm Faye in the Tallahassee Big Bend a few years ago; we were forecast to get high rain totals overall in our area but the training bands set up over us and ended dumping 24" or more of water in many parts over a 24 hour period causing massive flooding problems.
Dr. Masters's observations about the missed call on the forecast for NJ & NY made some very good points, of course. My view is that meteorology is not an exact science and what happened is simply one of the incidents of what happens in a science which tries to deal with a constantly changing enviroment. I know that in the NJ-NY area, life was disrupted for a day but what would have happened if the call was for no snow and three feet fell? Life could have been even more disrupted. I commend the people who run the transportation service for their quick return to normal. Would that have happened if an unexpected blizzard occurred? Rather than a one day disruption, it could have been several days or even longer and much more damage to the systems and there may have even been deaths associated with the storm. What a disruption that would have been. To me, what happened is simply an event in life and no crying over spilt milk. I feel sorry for the people in the New England states and on Long Island, NY who really were hit. The Governor of Connecticut said it best when he said that the storm could have move in the opposite direction and really enveloped the area. Remember, everybody talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it.
This is a great blog and thanks for explaining how forecasting works. I think you are all doing a good job and would rather have the worst forecast to prepare for, than one that didn't have us prepare for a bad storm.
Thanks a lot for this new entry and especially the thoughts about risk management in the last parts!
Excellent blog. Thanks for the report on the storm impact, as well as analysis of the forecast.
Why wouldn't this have worked for New York?

Probability of snow:

near 100%

Probability of accumulation:

Less than 1": near 0%
1-3": 10%
4-6": 25%
7-10": 40%
11" or greater: 25%

I got the percentages from a few quick calculations from the ensemble chart posted in yesterday's blog. I'm sure they are not very accurate but it's close enough for purposes of illustration. We already use percentages for the chance of precipitation. Why wouldn't using the same concept help the public understand the NWS thinking better? It seems like we're making this more complicated than it really is.
thanx bob.......another great blog...and another fine job of imparting knowledge.....who knows.....some of us might just learn something...emphasis on "some"
But the damg has been done with 1 billion in sale lost not including Monday night raw that never happen
But the damg has been done with 1 billion in sale lost not including Monday night raw that never happen

what...no monday night raw?........heads will roll!!!!!!
Quoting 15. sar2401:

Why wouldn't this have worked for New York?

Probability of snow:

near 100%

Probability of accumulation:

Less than 1": near 0%
1-3": 10%
4-6": 25%
7-10": 40%
11" or greater: 25%

I got the percentages from a few quick calculations from the ensemble chart posted in yesterday's blog. I'm sure they are not very accurate but it's close enough for purposes of illustration. We already use percentages for the chance of precipitation. Why wouldn't using the same concept help the public understand the NWS thinking better? It seems like we're making this more complicated than it really is.

Great idea; that might make a good start. No probabilistic forecast, however, will serve to take the "heat of hindsight" off those who must make tough choices on school and road closures, reverse 911 calls, etc. This would definitely be an improvement in the way extreme event forecasts are presented to the general public, but I doubt said public officials' jobs would really be made any easier.
Meanwhile, out west: Not a speck of snow on the ground at my house (5900' on the E. slope of the Sierra Nevada range).
California snow water content, as a percentage of April 1 average.
Thanks to Bob Henson and Dr. Jeff Masters for the new Post,
Thanks Dr. Benson and Dr. Masters.
Quoting 15. sar2401:

Why wouldn't this have worked for New York?

Probability of snow:

near 100%

Probability of accumulation:

Less than 1": near 0%
1-3": 10%
4-6": 25%
7-10": 40%
11" or greater: 25%

I got the percentages from a few quick calculations from the ensemble chart posted in yesterday's blog. I'm sure they are not very accurate but it's close enough for purposes of illustration. We already use percentages for the chance of precipitation. Why wouldn't using the same concept help the public understand the NWS thinking better? It seems like we're making this more complicated than it really is.

And/or something like this (copied from Shaun Tanner's blog, blog entry Monday 12:30 PM EST)?


Figure 2. Probability of getting more than 12" of snow, for the 48 hour period ending at 1 pm EST Wednesday January 28. There may be a sharp cut-off in where heavy snow amounts occur right in the vicinity of New York City, so a small change in the track of the storm could greatly change the amount of snow the Big Apple gets. Image credit: NWS New York.

Or I kind of like the 'cone of uncertainty/cone of probability/"snow cone" as mentioned in Dr. Sheperd's blog.
GFS says more snow up there on Friday............................................ .........................
From Greg Laden's Blog:

The Blizzard of 2015 was in some ways comparable to the Blizzard of 1978, which was one of the first storms of the modern era of increased storminess. The snowfall totals may have been greater for 2015, but coastal winds were greater for 1978. But, in 1978 over 100 people died, and most of them died of exposure because they were caught in the snow. So, in terms of cost of human lives, the two storms are very comparable despite the differences in winds.

Why did over 100 people die in New England’s 1978 storm, but either zero or one person died (depending on attribution of a single sledding accident related death to the storm) in 2015?

Weather forecasting. It got better because the science and technology behind it got better. And, frankly, that is partly a result of storms like the ’78 storm and various hurricanes, which prompted an interest in advancing this technology, which includes on one hand satellites producing piles of data and on the other hand advanced computer and software producing powerful models.



Link
Hey Ricderr? it's been moved to Thursday. Monday Night Raw is so old-school....

Interesting.


Now...



A week from now...




more snow!!!
Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:

Interesting.



I love when you can tell that a model has actually gotten a decent sample of the energy that will come together to make a storm. Case in point, the potential storm this coming Monday. Yesterday it looked like a potential big one for the Northeast. Now, today's 12z GFS and ECMWF have it very weak and suppressed. Maybe it comes back, but I doubt it. Easy to tell that these models saw some new piece of data that led to a large change in their projections. FWIW, the CMC still has a big storm, but it tends to be slow in correcting sometimes.
32. rlk
JohnLonergan, also this storm didn't hit suddenly and hard at rush hour. The heaviest precip didn't start until around midnight, and it slowly ramped up. In general, though, I agree that forecasting made the difference.


Picture perfect day here in Tampa. About 65 degrees without a cloud in the sky.
Quoting 31. MAweatherboy1:

I love when you can tell that a model has actually gotten a decent sample of the energy that will come together to make a storm. Case in point, the potential storm this coming Monday. Yesterday it looked like a potential big one for the Northeast. Now, today's 12z GFS and ECMWF have it very weak and suppressed. Maybe it comes back, but I doubt it. Easy to tell that these models saw some new piece of data that led to a large change in their projections. FWIW, the CMC still has a big storm, but it tends to be slow in correcting sometimes.


I would wait until Saturday afternoon model runs. We are five days out from Monday. Five days out from yesterdays storm all the models had a suppressed weak out to sea solution
Quoting 31. MAweatherboy1:

I love when you can tell that a model has actually gotten a decent sample of the energy that will come together to make a storm. Case in point, the potential storm this coming Monday. Yesterday it looked like a potential big one for the Northeast. Now, today's 12z GFS and ECMWF have it very weak and suppressed. Maybe it comes back, but I doubt it. Easy to tell that these models saw some new piece of data that led to a large change in their projections. FWIW, the CMC still has a big storm, but it tends to be slow in correcting sometimes.


something the models are not right we will never get all the weather models right about the storms
I think that the only thing that can be said about Monday is that the ingredients are definitely there, but the location of the ingredients are simply not know. I don't think that the 500 mb trigger that would be needed is even over an area of decent data collection yet. I am certainly hoping that nothing happens, but I will stay on edge until Saturday.
Quoting 31. MAweatherboy1:

I love when you can tell that a model has actually gotten a decent sample of the energy that will come together to make a storm. Case in point, the potential storm this coming Monday. Yesterday it looked like a potential big one for the Northeast. Now, today's 12z GFS and ECMWF have it very weak and suppressed. Maybe it comes back, but I doubt it. Easy to tell that these models saw some new piece of data that led to a large change in their projections. FWIW, the CMC still has a big storm, but it tends to be slow in correcting sometimes.


High to the north looks too strong. At least it won't be cold and raining. Best we can hope for is a partial phase of the northern and southern stream energy. The UKMET 12z looks somewhat ideal.

More Snow in Store for Northeast, Midwest This Week
January 28, 2015; 12:56 PM ET
An Alberta Clipper will bring a fresh wave of snow from the Midwest to the Northeast from late Wednesday through early Friday.
As the storm strengthens and pivots along the coast of northern New England, a period of wind-driven snow can occur in portions of New Hampshire, Maine and New Brunswick on Friday,.
A moderate to heavy amount of snow can fall from portions of northern Maine to southern Quebec.
Even light accumulations, however, could cause travel delays for airports in the United States, for Detroit; Pittsburgh, Boston and New York City.
If this past storm had been forecast to hit Maine only with three feet of snow and then it "busted" and we only got six inches. We could have creamed about it until we were blue in the face and no media outlets outside of the state would have even sort of cared. I grew up in the western Maine mountains. We had a storm that "over performed" in December of 2003. We got 42 inches at my house and some areas got 56 inches. People in Portland less than sixty miles south didn't even hear about it.
Hey Ricderr? it's been moved to Thursday. Monday Night Raw is so old-school....


i'm old school myself...i remember back in the 70's when it was moon dog mane...rocky johnson......ray stevens and such
The forecast miss was only a big deal because it was New York - where most of the national media is based. If it had hit New York but missed Boston CNN and Fox News would still be in uninterrupted "breaking news" coverage the historic snow storm.
44. vis0
      If anyone remembered this clip (http://youtu.be/TWwLCnCiboI) showing a jet stream streak (a bit NE of the yellow arrow) over Central Pacific Jan 20-21st 2015 (hard to see date, might make out the "wed 21" on the aviationweather.gov B&W  imagery title-bar) i explained on my only active blogbyte (cmmnt#) to watch this, so strong  jet streak as it is bent by the ml-d when the ml-d is ON or via a "domino affect" after the ml-d was reset. (one can read (try to read) my own comments in my last wxu blogbyte titled "ml-d reset PAGE".(for comments pretaining to this jet streak they began under my commnt ~# 35 through #37 on the ml-d reset page blogbyte)
      i think, this streak made visible by the clouds caught in it, came to power the bombing LOW that formed off the USofA Eastern coast Jan 26th 2015.   Here is a clip  "AIR-Bendng and the Jets" (apology to Sir Elton) showing the same jet streak's southern most contents (moisture, vapour, clouds, man made pollutants etc) doing an almost 90 degree turn as it neared Washington State.  The clip uses Satellite imagery from NOAA, professionally processed by Colorado State is of the WV channel.
      Now to show the ml-d's push-pull affect on the east coast watch the bombing LOW of Jan 26th 2015, as its connected front carrying the bulk of the moisture separated, as i broke a portable ml-d at a ~ 21;07 UTC, (official time???, looked at NYC electronic parking meter read 05;07PM changed to 05;08 as i was reading it to see time after it broke, set my pocket watch to it verified it once at home.) Coincidence?,  those whom try to read my blog understand the connections i make as to influencing weather. A VID on youtube whose link/VID was posted by barbamz, shows in HD the bombing LOW through GOES-13 HD imagery, i cannot find the link its titled "GOES13_IR4_26_27_January_2015", download the HD(720) mp4 version.HERE IT ITS

       Yet after the big front separated instead of that motion pulling the LOW NE or even Northward the now stripped LOW retrograded creating a smaller front This happens without the influence of an ml-d but as i state with the ml-d ON it'll happen more than what is considered normal for LOWs & fronts passing through or near the ml-d inner most AOI as they will be push-pulled back to the ml-d.  YET 'cause of the laws of physics the weather has to move with some eastward direction and these 2 actions (weather moving eastward & ml-d push-pulling the LOW back) i state caused a bending back of the air, be it pushed back by a HIGH or pulled back by the LOW.  Why some noticed i'd post clues saying  "push-pull" theory of Galacsics to Physics influence. (BTW none of my ~50 Laws of Galacsics i've publish, TWCh has the most ~12, sent to them from 1990 till 1996/7 in CLUEs.
     Now back to the hysterical comments on the historical storm...Weird how people who will spend hours trying to figure the winning numbers on a lottery cannot glance to the NWS key for a second and read that NWS has a +/- range.   ...Oh wait theirs another historical event, no not Mondays bombing LOW off Washi115 area (don't forget the 50+/- mi rule of thumb), the "supper" bowl,  FOOD & Funny Ads... oh and a game, lets hope one of the teams doesn't wear their 'A' game on their "sleeves"!!!
scott...check look up your 8-14 day forecast temps.........look for feb 7th.......the high temp for me will be 48 lol...whats yours
Fairbanks, Alaska 2:12 PM EST on January 28, 2015
-40 °F
Freezing Fog
Quoting 46. hurricanes2018:

Fairbanks, Alaska 2:12 PM EST on January 28, 2015
-40 °F
Freezing Fog
man that's extreme cold huh
Quoting aquak9:
Hey Ricderr? it's been moved to Thursday. Monday Night Raw is so old-school....



Thursdays is now smack down
Quoting 5. WildcatRudy:

Kudos to Dr. Masters for not using the "media name" for the storm. I did want to say in general, however, that I tend to trust the Weather Underground forecasts more so than the "big media" guys like A***weather, who I feel tend to hype up their forecasts in order to get more attention for their "brand." Even the conservative old National Weather Service has been closer to true snowfall totals (as one example) than many other outlets in years past. I can't tell you how many times I have seen and heard radio and news locally (southeast Michigan) whoop and holler about these massive snowfall amounts expected, only to wake up the next morning to a life-altering two inches of snow on the ground.

Keep up the good work. We appreciate it!


I do know whom to trust, even my WU forecast will change every few hours. We have a snowstorm coming Friday and Saturday and the amounts change 3-4 times per day often going back to previous numbers. Difficult to predict as there is a major difference in driving conditions form 1-3 to 5-8 inches.
Quoting 9. CaneFreeCR:

That "extreme jet stream pattern" also brought chilly and wet weather as far south as Costa Rica -- temps in the upper 50s and nearly 2-3/4 inches of rain here in the last 24 hours. Translate that to snow at 11" per inch and it nearly equals Worcester's record fall. Thank goodness the tropics are at least a little warmer!


Too much heat in the lowlands though. 62 and sunny here right now and it is perfect. Beats 93F and muggy.
Quoting 42. hurricanes2018:


maybe the next big storm!
Quoting JohnLonergan:
From Greg Laden's Blog:

The Blizzard of 2015 was in some ways comparable to the Blizzard of 1978, which was one of the first storms of the modern era of increased storminess. The snowfall totals may have been greater for 2015, but coastal winds were greater for 1978. But, in 1978 over 100 people died, and most of them died of exposure because they were caught in the snow. So, in terms of cost of human lives, the two storms are very comparable despite the differences in winds.

Why did over 100 people die in New England’s 1978 storm, but either zero or one person died (depending on attribution of a single sledding accident related death to the storm) in 2015?

Weather forecasting. It got better because the science and technology behind it got better. And, frankly, that is partly a result of storms like the ’78 storm and various hurricanes, which prompted an interest in advancing this technology, which includes on one hand satellites producing piles of data and on the other hand advanced computer and software producing powerful models.



Link
Unless Mr. Landen can provide links about deaths from the 1978 Blizzard, I'm calling BS on parts of his story. The number of deaths from that storm vary from 56, which seems to be the officially accepted number, to over 100, coming from various sources and depending on how we associate a death during that period with the storm. Regardless of the total number, I've seen zero evidence the majority died of exposure. Somewhere around 30 deaths were attributed to heart attacks while shoveling snow. Another 20-25 death were attributed to carbon monoxide poisoning, and most of them came from people trapped in their cars. Another 20 or so died in car accidents. The only death I can find that could be fairly attributed to exposure was a boy who was outside playing with his brother. They were apparently making some kind of snow fort when part of it collapsed on the boy, who was later found dead. He did not die because he just wandered away in the raging blizzard.

I can just as easily make the point that the majority of deaths were prevented because so many people have snow blowers or get their driveways plowed now, so they don't die from shoveling. There are less really faulty heaters in homes, and cell phones make it more likely you'll be rescued out of a stranded car before you die. If anything about the forecast helped to prevent deaths, it was that Boston got the effects about right and, even though New York over predicted, the net result was the same - the entire Northeast was pretty well shut down before the storm hit, so very few people were out driving and crashing into things.

The other thing I'm getting a little tired of is the idea that somehow what happened in NYC was more important than anywhere else. Boston, which was forecasting the same storm, got the accumulations and timing as close as we can expect. NYC had a forecast that stuck with higher amounts long after it was becoming clear that the NYC area wasn't going to see 20" or more snow. The Philadelphia area, which seems to be treated in most most articles like Mr. Laden's as if it doesn't exist, had by far the biggest bust. That office was predicting more than a foot when they really got an average of two inches. That's a big miss and, to his credit, the head forecaster for the Philly office was on Twitter Monday morning at 1:00 am apologizing to government officials and the public for the miss. Does that mean that the forecasters who missed the right call should be dragged out and hung? Of course not, but it does mean that the NWS needs to improve both its forecasting and public communication. Writing an article that says the forecasters were really right because 100 people didn't die using misleading or false claims is a disingenuous defense of what went wrong that does us no good in terms of improving things in the future.
Quoting sonofagunn:
The forecast miss was only a big deal because it was New York - where most of the national media is based. If it had hit New York but missed Boston CNN and Fox News would still be in uninterrupted "breaking news" coverage the historic snow storm.


New York City is not just where national media is based it's also considered by many the cultural and financial capital of the world.

It also has the highest population in the U.S. with over 8 million people. In addition, New York City has a Metropolitan Statistical Area of 19.9 million residents and a Combined Statistical Area of 23.5 million residents.

Stats pulled from Wiki.
Link



I can only imagine the outcry if the snow forecast had been targeted north of the NYC and the city getting buried in 3 feet.
Quoting LAbonbon:

And/or something like this (copied from Shaun Tanner's blog, blog entry Monday 12:30 PM EST)?


Figure 2. Probability of getting more than 12" of snow, for the 48 hour period ending at 1 pm EST Wednesday January 28. There may be a sharp cut-off in where heavy snow amounts occur right in the vicinity of New York City, so a small change in the track of the storm could greatly change the amount of snow the Big Apple gets. Image credit: NWS New York.

Or I kind of like the 'cone of uncertainty/cone of probability/"snow cone" as mentioned in Dr. Sheperd's blog.
I've seen that map before and really like it. The question is, was that map on the front page of any of any of the affected NWS office sites? I never saw it if it was. It's one of those maps that you only find if you know about it and know where to dig. That particular map was made at 11:00 am EST, so the outcome was pretty well known by then. I'm not giving kudos to the results of the map, only that it's a good way to let people know what forecasters are thinking for total snow in their immediate area. It's certainly better than having the public just react to headlines.
Quoting JNFlori30A:
I can only imagine the outcry if the snow forecast had been targeted north of the NYC and the city getting buried in 3 feet.
That's one of the reasons why, 36 hours out, the storm was being predicted as a blizzard from south of NYC through the Boston office area. What didn't happen this time was the offices, especially NYC, looking at all the models and picking the one that turned out to be most right. NYC in a forecast discussion at 0456 Monday morning said this:

THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF
MAXIMUM OFFSHORE...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW.


As it turned out, it wasn't the outlier and it wasn't too fast. Convective feedback seems to be used for models you don't think are going to verify. If all the models had been wrong, that would be one thing - but they weren't. Why didn't NYC choose the more correct model and forecast from that? That's the base of the "busted" forecast, not all the other excuses I've been reading, and that's the after action summary I'd like to read.
Quoting 56. sar2401:

That's one of the reasons why, 36 hours out, the storm was being predicted as a blizzard from south of NYC through the Boston office area. What didn't happen this time was the offices, especially NYC, looking at all the models and picking the one that turned out to be most right. NYC in a forecast discussion at 0456 Monday morning said this:

THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF
MAXIMUM OFFSHORE...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW.


As it turned out, it wasn't the outlier and it wasn't too fast. Convective feedback seems to be used for models you don't think are going to verify. If all the models had been wrong, that would be one thing - but they weren't. Why didn't NYC choose the more correct model and forecast from that? That's the base of the "busted" forecast, not all the other excuses I've been reading, and that's the after action summary I'd like to read.


It appears that too many hung their hat on the EURO (it has had a good track record this winter, so why not) and ended up wrong. The GFS has been horrible, A LOT this winter, so why go with that. It figures it would get the biggest storm of the winter right, while getting the most of the rest of the season wrong.
Quoting tlawson48:
I think that the only thing that can be said about Monday is that the ingredients are definitely there, but the location of the ingredients are simply not know. I don't think that the 500 mb trigger that would be needed is even over an area of decent data collection yet. I am certainly hoping that nothing happens, but I will stay on edge until Saturday.
Really, that's all we can really do anyway. The models may have correctly sniffed out that some kind of snow may fall up there on Monday. Since we won't know which model was correct until Tuesday, we just have to wait to see what shows up on the actual surface map before you really have an idea what will happen in your neck of the woods. It seems like that we used to have models converge about 24 hours before the event. Now, it seems like that's happening less and less often.
Quoting tlawson48:


It appears that too many hung their hat on the EURO (it has had a good track record this winter, so why not) and ended up wrong. The GFS has been horrible, A LOT this winter, so why go with that. It figures it would get the biggest storm of the winter right, while getting the most of the rest of the season wrong.
True but, in the case, the actual dynamics were following the GFS. The low was moving faster than the Euro forecast, it wasn't deepening as fast as forecast, and location kept moving east, not west. If you don't hang your hat on one model, you should be able to make changes based on the model which predicted was really happening now. What I saw was staying with the Euro and its forecast long after it wasn't verifying on the surface map.
Quoting LargoFl:
man that's extreme cold huh


That s nothing for them if you want to talk extreme cold try -80 too 100 be low now that's extreme cold
Quoting 55. sar2401:

I've seen that map before and really like it. The question is, was that map on the front page of any of any of the affected NWS office sites? I never saw it if it was. It's one of those maps that you only find if you know about it and know where to dig. That particular map was made at 11:00 am EST, so the outcome was pretty well known by then. I'm not giving kudos to the results of the map, only that it's a good way to let people know what forecasters are thinking for total snow in their immediate area. It's certainly better than having the public just react to headlines.

I didn't see it (or don't remember seeing it), until this morning on Tanner's blog. I think it clearly represents probability to the public...if they change the 'z' to local time it could work well.

Not sure where you got 11:00 am EST from, but the graphic was issued at 0817z Monday, or 3:17 am EST...so I don't think the 'outcome was pretty well known'...the storm wasn't upon them at the time, and the city didn't shut down until that evening.
Quoting LAbonbon:

I didn't see it (or don't remember seeing it), until this morning on Tanner's blog. I think it clearly represents probability to the public...if they change the 'z' to local time it could work well.

Not sure where you got 11:00 am EST from, but the graphic was issued at 0817z Monday, or 3:17 am EST...so I don't think the 'outcome was pretty well known'...the storm wasn't upon them at the time, and the city didn't shut down until that evening.
Ah, my feeble brain was looking at the valid time instead of issued time. In that case, kudos to them...but why wasn't the forecast reflecting the map? NYC only had a 50/50 chance of 12" or more while the heavier snow on Long Island was depicted well. This is a great map, and it should be what the NWS uses when they are predicting a big deal storm. I agree 100% about changing the time, especially for the zulu time challenged for people like me. The map is 100% in EST, so use that on public maps.
Quoting 61. LAbonbon:


I didn't see it (or don't remember seeing it), until this morning on Tanner's blog. I think it clearly represents probability to the public...if they change the 'z' to local time it could work well.

Not sure where you got 11:00 am EST from, but the graphic was issued at 0817z Monday, or 3:17 am EST...so I don't think the 'outcome was pretty well known'...the storm wasn't upon them at the time, and the city didn't shut down until that evening.



That map is a routine WPC product.

Link
Quoting 63. sar2401:

Ah, my feeble brain was looking at the valid time instead of issued time. In that case, kudos to them...but why wasn't the forecast reflecting the map? NYC only had a 50/50 chance of 12" or more while the heavier snow on Long Island was depicted well. This is a great map, and it should be what the NWS uses when they are predicting a big deal storm. I agree 100% about changing the time, especially for the zulu time challenged for people like me. The map is 100% in EST, so use that on public maps.

Phew! I was worried I somehow really mixed up the timeline :)

Maybe this was relayed to NYC's EM, maybe it wasn't. Looking at the narrow bands it's clear to me that 12" could have gone either way. They still had a call to make... I don't blame de Blasio for making the call he did...if he hadn't, and it hit hard, they'd be raising the gallows...
tlaw, remember it well. Lived in Bethel at the time. Rained like a banshee less than a week later and the Androscoggin flooded town.

In the 8 years I lived there, probably experienced 3-4 30"+ storms and scores of lesser ones. Once the storms pass Boston, the media just drops the story.

Winter of 07-08 was ridiculous for sheer quantity of snowstorms.

Quoting 40. tlawson48:

If this past storm had been forecast to hit Maine only with three feet of snow and then it "busted" and we only got six inches. We could have creamed about it until we were blue in the face and no media outlets outside of the state would have even sort of cared. I grew up in the western Maine mountains. We had a storm that "over performed" in December of 2003. We got 42 inches at my house and some areas got 56 inches. People in Portland less than sixty miles south didn't even hear about it.
somebody please tell me you watched the daily show last night...my favorite part was when chris used the parking lot as a slide...weeee
Quoting 64. nrtiwlnvragn:



That map is a routine WPC product.

Link

Yes, but I don't recall, or remember seeing that particular graphic for NYC pre-storm. And Sar's question is a good one- how accessible is it to the general public? I see a block for it on NWS's NYC Emergency Manager Page. But was it/could it be used during pre-event communication with the public?

If any member of the public got on-line, went to NWS, clicked on their area of the 'main map', they would then click on the associated watch/warning/advisories for their area. This gets them to official communications, text only. Some offices are better than others at including additional information and graphics, some aren't. They're not consistent between offices. So unless someone knew to look for that graphic, or accidentally stumbled upon it, it's probably not likely they would ever see it.

It really does come down to how best to convey information to the public.
Although it was partly right, the GFS was too fast and even tried to chip Eastern Mass with 1-1/2 feet. Turns out they were thumped with 2-3 feet.
The GFS and CMC dump some serious cold into Florida! With the -10 degree line in the Big Bend and the 0C line at Florida Bay in about 10 days!!!
Quoting 71. weatherbro:

The GFS and CMC dump some serious cold into Florida! With the -10 degree line in the Big Bend and the 0C line at Florida Bay in about 10 days!!!


Still too far out, but wow:

The GFS shows a winter storm across the Southeast next weekend...again.

Not getting suckered in this time, I don't care how persistent it is.

Quoting 69. LAbonbon:


Yes, but I don't recall, or remember seeing that particular graphic for NYC pre-storm. And Sar's question is a good one- how accessible is it to the general public? I see a block for it on NWS's NYC Emergency Manager Page. But was it/could it be used during pre-event communication with the public?

If any member of the public got on-line, went to NWS, clicked on their area of the 'main map', they would then click on the associated watch/warning/advisories for their area. This gets them to official communications, text only. Some offices are better than others at including additional information and graphics, some aren't. They're not consistent between offices. So unless someone knew to look for that graphic, or accidentally stumbled upon it, it's probably not likely they would ever see it.

It really does come down to how best to convey information to the public.


I guess that would apply to any of the products from the "National Centers" whether local offices include that type of product in their briefings or place it on their webpage/facebook/twit.
99s=interesting
Quoting 73. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS shows a winter storm across the Southeast next weekend...again.

Not getting suckered in this time, I don't care how persistent it is.


well I dunno..feb 7th the High for tampa bay will only be 47..so for sure north of florida will really be cold enough for snow..we'll have to see if the moisture up there is enough for it etc...still a week or so away yet..time for the models to change yet.


Tampa Bay area
navy model sure has enough moisture up there feb 5th.....looks good for snow then.........


Very dry air in place in central FL.
81. vis0
  • CREDIT:: NOAA/ Goes13 WV, prepared through Colorado State
People still whining that N.Y.C didn't get dumped on and that they shouldn't have closed down the city for people to get their carry out food? In my eyes their is no questions to be answered.Its a shame that people think weather is a exact science which its not.This storm still dumped 2-3 feet east from where it was forecast but not by that much.What 50 miles? but I guess if its not N.Y.C getting hit hard then the storm was a bust.

Rant over.Do not reply.
Quoting 82. washingtonian115:

People still whining that N.Y.C didn't get dumped on and that they shouldn't have closed down the city for people to get their carry out food? In my eyes their is no questions to be answered.Its a shame that people think weather is a exact science which its not.This storm still dumped 2-3 feet east from where it was forecast but not by that much.What 50 miles? but I guess if its not N.Y.C getting hit hard then the storm was a bust.

Rant over.Do not reply.


Lol, who's still whining about that? There are about 800 comments today basically echoing what you just wrote.
Quoting 83. tampabaymatt:



Lol, who's still whining about that? There are about 800 comments today basically echoing what you just wrote.
The media and social mets.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL EUNICE (08-20142015)
22:00 PM RET January 28 2015
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Eunice (968 hPa) located at 14.9S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 135 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 240 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 15.6S 66.1E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 16.9S 67.1E- 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 19.0S 69.3E- 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 19.9S 73.7E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
===================
The rate of intensification seems to slow down. The eye is less regular on the last satellite imagery, and on the last microwave data of 1249z and 1532z (banding eye or eye replacement), until quite disappeared temporary on the last infrared imagery.

Under the steering influence of the mid-level near-equatorial ridge, the system is expected to track southeastward until Saturday morning. Within the next 24 hours, environmental conditions are expected to be very favorable and Eunice should rapidly intensify up to the intense tropical cyclone stage. In the upper levels, under the ridge, the vertical wind shear should keep weak until Sunday and the already existing poleward outflow channel is expected to remain to the south of the system, that should sustain a very good upper level divergence.

From Saturday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to shift westward and so Eunice should curve east southeastward. Sunday, environmental conditions begin to deteriorate slowly with the strengthening westerly wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. The system should begin to slowly weakening. Monday, the strengthening vertical wind shear should accelerate the weakening of the system.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIAMONDRA (07-20142015)
22:00 PM RET January 28 2015
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra (986 hPa) located at 20.0S 79.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 6 knots..

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 155 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
================
95 NM radius from the center, extending up to 240 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 265 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 20.6S 80.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 21.4S 80.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 23.8S 83.4E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 25.9S 85.9E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
The general pattern has fex evolved for the last 6 hours. 0600z CIMSS data still suggests a westerly vertical wind shear at about 15 kts. The position of the center has been extrapolated thanks to 1343z microwave picture.

Until Saturday, Diamondra is expected to track generally southeastwards under the steering influence of the aforementioned near-equatorial ridge and a transient mid-level trough in its south. It should slowly weaken with the influence of the west southwesterly vertical wind-shear and of the decreasing ocean heat potential.

From Saturday, Diamondra should begin its extra-tropicalization on a southward track. The winds are then expected to strengthen in the mid-latitudes general circulation.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



Twas a nice roller. No damage that I've heard of. I didn't even take cover. I guess I'm getting blasé about earthquakes as I get older. Just another day living on the Mendocino Triple Junction.
Now I must admit this was funny..
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 2h 2 hours ago
GFS is like a song with a good beat, vocals for a while ... start humming along. Then Pitbull starts rapping ... make it stop.
Man made cloud cover today. MODIS satellite photo.
91. vis0

Quoting 86. HadesGodWyvern:


WOW! an ilse named Rodrigues in the Indian Ocean? talk 'bout a fishing spot.
Quoting 84. washingtonian115:

The media and social mets.


AKA, professional trolls. They are just trying to get people worked up about something so their website gets clicks and therefore ad impressions.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Still too far out, but wow:

There are very few things in the weather world more unreliable than a GFS temperature forecast 11 days out. You can tell the model's not doing a very good job when it shows temperatures ranging from 21-24 degrees in Minnesota while it's supposed to be from 14 to 18 in Alabama. If it still shows the same temperatures three days out, then I'll start looking for some extra blankets.
GFS shows a winter storm across the Southeast next weekend way to far to know that right now..
Quoting RedwoodCoast:

Twas a nice roller. No damage that I've heard of. I didn't even take cover. I guess I'm getting blasé about earthquakes as I get older. Just another day living on the Mendocino Triple Junction.
I was up in Rio Dell working in 1992 for the Petrolia quake. The main 7.2 quake quake was pretty impressive, with strong ground motion for about 30 seconds. The aftershocks, which I think were both in the 6.5 range, were much less severe feeling, although I understand they were responsible for a lot of the damage in Eureka. It does seem that a subduction zone quake has to be at least over a 6.0 before most people get alarmed. Good thing too, since they aren't uncommon up there. Quakes were the only really scary thing about living in northern
California...well, the only natural phenomena scary things in northern California anyway. :-) It's one of the reasons I chose to leave in 2005. Strangely enough, there have been a couple of earthquakes offshore from Alabama since I got here but no hurricanes. My neighbors were starting to get mighty suspicious of me.
Tropical Cyclone Eunice

Tropical Cyclone Eunice
Last Updated Jan 28, 2015 12 GMT
Location -14.2N 64.8E Movement SE
Wind 95 MPH

Quoting PedleyCA:
Looks like you've got some kind of Tortilla Connection with that big upper level trough south of you. Unfortunately, it looks like most of the moisture is going to stay just to the east of you as the trough moves NE. You've still got about a month and a half to get the "atmospheric river" flowing again but that's starting look about as likely as El Nino at this point. :-)
Sinkholes -- Buried Alive! is on NOVA at 9 p.m. on your PBS station tonight.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO POSSIBLE 0.1 INCH.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES

* SNOW AND ICE BEGINNING...WINTRY MIX LIKELY BY NOON.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE ICE AND SNOW...RAIN OR WINTRY MIX
CHANGING TO SNOW ON THURSDAY EVENING. BETTER CHANCE OF INTENSE
SNOW 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

* SNOW ENDING...8 TO 10 AM FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
SNOW...SLEET AND ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AND
REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

Best video from the blizzard imo


View on YouTube
Quoting 96. sar2401:

There are very few things in the weather world more unreliable than a GFS temperature forecast 11 days out. You can tell the model's not doing a very good job when it shows temperatures ranging from 21-24 degrees in Minnesota while it's supposed to be from 14 to 18 in Alabama. If it still shows the same temperatures three days out, then I'll start looking for some extra blankets.


Well, while I agree that the GFS isn't reliable that far out, Minnesota temps being warmer than Alabama wouldn't necessarily be a good analog. In fact, the stronger the trough in the east, one would expect temps to be warming substantially further west with ridging.

Look at the mid west temps now, or with even stronger cold air outbreaks in the southeast, just as it is at it's coldest in the southeast, warming is arriving further west as strong ridging offsets the trough.

In fact, occasionally Tampa has been colder than parts of the upper plains just as the peak of the cold high settles into the southeast while a strong ridge brings in above normal temps to the west and midwest during the more dramatic events.

Now, sometimes cold air dives more due south, then spreads both west and east, but in a sharp narrow trough scenario, that can and does happen.

What isn't reliable is the fact that it's 11 days out. It wouldn't be the first time it showed a scenario that dramatic at 10 days out or so only for it to end up being just a run of the mill cool air event.
105. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, presented through erau.edu
SUBJECT:: a small puff in the circle , arrow is the starting path. (maybe what Euro thought was to pull back / slow the bigger LOW, was "en el bano" (Quote CREDIT:: aquak9)  and is just getting to the ATL.
http://youtu.be/Oq30UFrNk88

Quoting 100. sar2401:

Looks like you've got some kind of Tortilla Connection with that big upper level trough south of you...


That was that wanna be invest a few models had way out. Should make some rain for the SW, sadly missing most of CA..


Then it should help fuel more mess for the North East.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I guess that would apply to any of the products from the "National Centers" whether local offices include that type of product in their briefings or place it on their webpage/facebook/twit.
No, it wouldn't. I think almost no one logging on the the NYC NWS site to see what the chances of a lot of snow where they live would be interested in any products from the Telecommunication Operations Center or the Space Weather Prediction Center. Are you saying that the map didn't convey important information to just that the map wasn't important enough to display on the front page?
108. vis0

Quoting 106. Skyepony:



That was that wanna be invest a few models had way out. Should make some rain for the SW, sadly missing most of CA..
Then it should help fuel more mess for the North East.

Not so fast on the safety (as opposed to trigger) , lets wait ~12 more days to see if any TSys forms off Cali.
Quoting Skyepony:


That was that wanna be invest a few models had way out. Should make some rain for the SW, sadly missing most of CA..


Then it should help fuel more mess for the North East.

The latest GFS has flip flopped on the low that's supposed to be here Sunday into Monday. It's now showing a poorly defined surface instead of what looked like a healthy low yesterday. If that low turns out to be as week as it's currently depicted, there's going to be a lot of messed up models for next week that will also have to undergo a big change.
My favorite was CNN's "Blizzardmobile" driving around the streets of Manhattan with light snow and full visibility.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

EXTENDED (SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER AREA FROM THE SOUTH,
INTRODUCING A STEADY WARMING TREND WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY.
ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BECAUSE OF THIS, WILL
KEEP A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

For West Palm Beach...

112. vis0

Quoting 109. sar2401:

The latest GFS has flip flopped on the low that's supposed to be here Sunday into Monday. It's now showing a poorly defined surface instead of what looked like a healthy low yesterday. If that low turns out to be as week as it's currently depicted, there's going to be a lot of messed up models for next week that will also have to undergo a big change.
whatever is going to happen:
#1. Pay attention to the reports.
#2. If you read the reports faster than reading #1 above, that is NOT paying attention.
#3 This goes for elected officials too.
#4. don't forget to add the "." to #3..
#5. If a prediction is still off lets be civil and try to figure out how to improve technology, fer instance not cutting the school's science & arts programs for our future meteorologists.

meanwhile...i'll pull a lever here, press some buttons there, readjust the fratistat PREST-O CHANGE-O watch in ~6 hrs the GFS will flop, i mean flip again.
Quoting 93. hurricanes2018:




I wonder why 3-5 is so unlikely compared to 1-3 or 5-8.
also the storm seems to be trending larger.
I would assume just north/west of Boston (seems right on the mix line) may see up to 8-12 inches if Boston gets 4-6.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL EUNICE (08-20142015)
4:00 AM RET January 29 2015
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Eunice (968 hPa) located at 15.1S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Gale Force Winds
==============
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 135 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 240 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 15.9S 66.4E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 17.2S 67.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 19.4S 69.6E- 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 19.9S 74.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
===================
The rate of intensification has slowed down. The eye wall is not close on the last microwave data of 2027z, the eye has disappeared temporary, or is very cold on the last infrared imagery.However a larger and colder central dense overcast, more symmetric, are signs of a soon intensification.

Under the steering influence of the mid-level near-equatorial ridge, the system is expected to track southeastward until Saturday morning. Within the next 24 hours, environmental conditions are expected to be very favorable and Eunice should rapidly intensify up to the intense tropical cyclone stage. In the upper levels, under the ridge, the vertical wind shear should keep weak until Sunday and the already existing poleward outflow channel is expected to remain to the south of the system, that should sustain a very good upper level divergence.

From Saturday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to shift westward and so Eunice should curve east southeastward. Sunday, environmental conditions begin to deteriorate slowly with the strengthening westerly wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. The system should begin to slowly weakening. Monday, the strengthening vertical wind shear should accelerate the weakening of the system.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIAMONDRA (07-20142015)
4:00 AM RET January 29 2015
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra (989 hPa) located at 20.2S 80.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots..

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 155 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 265 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 21.1S 80.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 22.2S 81.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 25.4S 84.3E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 28.4S 87.4E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
Deep convection remain only in the southern part of circulation. 1800z CIMSS data still suggests a increasing westerly vertical wind-shear at about 25 kts. The position of the center has been extrapolated thanks to 2231z microwave picture.

Until Saturday, Diamondra is expected to track generally southeastwards under the steering influence of the aforementioned near-equatorial ridge and a transient mid-level trough in its south. It should slowly weaken with the influence of the west southwesterly vertical wind-shear and of the decreasing ocean heat potential.

From Saturday, Diamondra should begin its extra-tropicalization on a southward track. The winds are then expected to strengthen in the mid-latitudes general circulation.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, while I agree that the GFS isn't reliable that far out, Minnesota temps being warmer than Alabama wouldn't necessarily be a good analog. In fact, the stronger the trough in the east, one would expect temps to be warming substantially further west with ridging.

Look at the mid west temps now, or with even stronger cold air outbreaks in the southeast, just as it is at it's coldest in the southeast, warming is arriving further west as strong ridging offsets the trough.

In fact, occasionally Tampa has been colder than parts of the upper plains just as the peak of the cold high settles into the southeast while a strong ridge brings in above normal temps to the west and midwest during the more dramatic events.

Now, sometimes cold air dives more due south, then spreads both west and east, but in a sharp narrow trough scenario, that can and does happen.

What isn't reliable is the fact that it's 11 days out. It wouldn't be the first time it showed a scenario that dramatic at 10 days out or so only for it to end up being just a run of the mill cool air event.
Oh, I agree it can happen. It's just that this is probably about the fifth time it's happened since November. So far, even on a three day model, it's been right once. That's when we got our first and, so far, only sustained outbreak of cold weather, on November 18th through the 20th. The others have been, as you say, run of the mill cold weather. What's been unusual is the long runs of cooler than average days with just a couple of days of warmer than average temperatures. The JavaScript at the BMX site seems to be broken, so I can't get the montly data. My guess is that we've been below average since mid-November. That's the part I'm getting tired of. We had a high of 61 yesterday with a low of 28. Normal is 59 and 35. Either give me normal, so I don't have to keep hauling plants in and out, or give me cold with some interesting weather. I'm in the worst of both worlds. :-)
Quoting vis0:
CREDIT:: NOAA, presented through erau.edu
SUBJECT:: a small puff in the circle , arrow is the starting path. (maybe what Euro thought was to pull back / slow the bigger LOW, was "en el bano" (Quote CREDIT:: aquak9)  and is just getting to the ATL.
http://youtu.be/Oq30UFrNk88

I'm not sure what that arrow symbol means. Is that where you were fooling with the ml-d again? Good loop, and it does show another reason why the storm from NYC south didn't perform at the high expectation levels some were giving it. That low that tracked down south was then supposed to go offshore somewhere around NC and then phase with the developing low that was a bit further north. That low not only didn't develop as quickly as forecast, the deeper low to the north outran it. The secondary low then just went out to sea with no phasing with the developing low, thereby denying it some energy that may have helped it to shift expand snow coverage to the west. On such seemingly small things do forecasts hinge.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Best video from the blizzard imo


View on YouTube
LOL. Two observations. First, the TWC weather person in the video needs some more in-service time to get familiar with the...uh...wind thing, that measures the...uh...force of the...uh...wind...uh...uh...gusts. Second, I don't know who the plow guy is but he's probably now famous...and fired. :-)
Quoting wxgeek723:
Sandwich officials survey storm aftermath

Blizzard damages beach front homes, blocks Mill Creek
I'm a little confused about exactly where this is since both stories seem to make reference to a couple of different towns but the same town manager is each of the stories?

I looked at the houses along Salt Marsh Road, which Streetview thinks are in East Sandwich. Assuming it's the same place as Sandwich, it looks like the pictures were taken sometime in the summer months. A couple of the houses look like they had pre-existing damage based on the roof tarps. I guess most of these houses are summer homes, which is a big problem if a storm is coming in winter, since no one is there to make sure the is is secured as well as possible before the storm hits.

As much as I feel badly for anyone who's going to lose their home, it looks like these house were allowed to be built in the wrong place. No beach lasts forever. No matter how much sand the town dumps on the beach or what diversion structures are built, the ocean is going to win. The only thing that stops water is elevation, which means there's no chance for the beach to rebuild itself as long as the town is trying to save houses. At some point, that area is going to be cleared of structures. One choice is to let storms clear it out. The other is a planned buyout and then restoring the beach area to something resembling what it looked like before people were allowed to build there. The town needs to make decisions about this now.
cannot tell you how great is my joy when the NWS forecast a powerful hurricane over the Florida Keys ... and it misses (but we watch the eye pass on radar). I don't get mad when that happens. - just saying - nite
Quoting sar2401:
Unless Mr. Landen can provide links about deaths from the 1978 Blizzard, I'm calling BS on parts of his story. The number of deaths from that storm vary from 56, which seems to be the officially accepted number, to over 100, coming from various sources and depending on how we associate a death during that period with the storm. Regardless of the total number, I've seen zero evidence the majority died of exposure. Somewhere around 30 deaths were attributed to heart attacks while shoveling snow. Another 20-25 death were attributed to carbon monoxide poisoning, and most of them came from people trapped in their cars. Another 20 or so died in car accidents. The only death I can find that could be fairly attributed to exposure was a boy who was outside playing with his brother. They were apparently making some kind of snow fort when part of it collapsed on the boy, who was later found dead. He did not die because he just wandered away in the raging blizzard.

I can just as easily make the point that the majority of deaths were prevented because so many people have snow blowers or get their driveways plowed now, so they don't die from shoveling. There are less really faulty heaters in homes, and cell phones make it more likely you'll be rescued out of a stranded car before you die. If anything about the forecast helped to prevent deaths, it was that Boston got the effects about right and, even though New York over predicted, the net result was the same - the entire Northeast was pretty well shut down before the storm hit, so very few people were out driving and crashing into things.

The other thing I'm getting a little tired of is the idea that somehow what happened in NYC was more important than anywhere else. Boston, which was forecasting the same storm, got the accumulations and timing as close as we can expect. NYC had a forecast that stuck with higher amounts long after it was becoming clear that the NYC area wasn't going to see 20" or more snow. The Philadelphia area, which seems to be treated in most most articles like Mr. Laden's as if it doesn't exist, had by far the biggest bust. That office was predicting more than a foot when they really got an average of two inches. That's a big miss and, to his credit, the head forecaster for the Philly office was on Twitter Monday morning at 1:00 am apologizing to government officials and the public for the miss. Does that mean that the forecasters who missed the right call should be dragged out and hung? Of course not, but it does mean that the NWS needs to improve both its forecasting and public communication. Writing an article that says the forecasters were really right because 100 people didn't die using misleading or false claims is a disingenuous defense of what went wrong that does us no good in terms of improving things in the future.
The medical term "exposure" doesn't just refer to those who froze to death in the cold, of course. It also applies, for instance, to people who died of asphyxiation in their automobiles (storm-related exposure to carbon monoxide), as well as to many/most of those who died from heart attacks while shoveling snow (exposure to both cold and overexertion). So despite protestations, the very excellent Mr. Laden is correct in his statement.

The fact is--and even the NWS admits to this in hindsight--the storm in 1978 was poorly-forecasted, where this week's storm wasn't nearly so. Many thousands of motorists were caught unawares in 1978; that didn't happen this week. Better forecasting is the primary reason, of course, but social media should also take a bow for the role it played in helping to spread the word in a timely manner. As Laden says, NYC didn't get the 2'-3' originally feared (thankfully), but it nevertheless experienced a crippling, disruptive, and expensive snowstorm. Not as bad as forecasted for that city, true. But bad nonetheless. This image from Laden's blog tells the story, and is worth repeating:



Some exercise their prerogative by coming here to constantly bash NOAA (the NWS, the SPC, the NHC, and so on) for even relatively small under- or over-forecasts. I suppose that's easy enough to do when you're anonymous, and when you don't have to sign your name on every forecast for all the world to see and ridicule and second guess. But forecasters overall did an amazing job with Juno, and they should be applauded as heroes for the lives they doubtless saved, not berated for the unnecessary inconvenience they caused...
Worst flooding since 78'
http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_co verage/2015/01/scituate_seeks_aid_after_storm_sets _quarter_century_record_for
"Scituate saw floodwater as high as eight feet in some areas"
NASA Earth Observatory Image(s) of the day for January 29, 2015




(both images acquired January 28, 2015)

In January 2015, two tropical cyclones swirled over the central Indian Ocean. Neither storm was particularly strong, nor were they expected to make landfall or cause significant damage. Rather, forecasters anticipate that Diamondra and Eunice will weaken and dissipate over the coming days. But their close proximity offered striking views to satellites.

On January 28, 2015, geostationary satellites maintained by EUMETSAT and the Japanese Meteorological Agency collected the infrared data used to make the composite image at the top of the page. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi NPP captured the lower image, another composite. Note that three separate swaths of data (acquired at 07:25 UTC, 09:05 UTC, and 10:50 UTC) were stitched together to produce the VIIRS image.
Read more

Quoting 120. docrod:

cannot tell you how great is my joy when the NWS forecast a powerful hurricane over the Florida Keys ... and it misses (but we watch the eye pass on radar). I don't get mad when that happens. - just saying - nite


Nobody gets mad, dude. Not even storm chasers.
Quoting 121. Neapolitan:

The medical term "exposure" doesn't just refer to those who froze to death in the cold, of course. It also applies, for instance, to people who died of asphyxiation in their automobiles (storm-related exposure to carbon monoxide), as well as to many/most of those who died from heart attacks while shoveling snow (exposure to both cold and overexertion). So despite protestations, the very excellent Mr. Laden is correct in his statement.

The fact is--and even the NWS admits to this in hindsight--the storm in 1978 was poorly-forecasted, where this week's storm wasn't nearly so. Many thousands of motorists were caught unawares in 1978; that didn't happen this week. Better forecasting is the primary reason, of course, but social media should also take a bow for the role it played in helping to spread the word in a timely manner. As Laden says, NYC didn't get the 2'-3' originally feared (thankfully), but it nevertheless experienced a crippling, disruptive, and expensive snowstorm. Not as bad as forecasted for that city, true. But bad nonetheless. This image from Laden's blog tells the story, and is worth repeating:



Some exercise their prerogative by coming here to constantly bash NOAA (the NWS, the SPC, the NHC, and so on) for even relatively small under- or over-forecasts. I suppose that's easy enough to do when you're anonymous, and when you don't have to sign your name on every forecast for all the world to see and ridicule and second guess. But forecasters overall did an amazing job with Juno, and they should be applauded as heroes for the lives they doubtless saved, not berated for the unnecessary inconvenience they caused...


That is not all that happened, Philadelphia was also forecasted to get around 20 inches of snow and they got like 2. The NWS can be wrong just like anyone and they have the right to be criticized just like anyone. There was a model consensus for one thing to happen and an outlier to what would happen and the NWS went with the outlier and got it wrong. Lets not act like they did something special in looking at the Euro and going yeah I think that'll happen and say they did an "amazing job".

The NWS should be the hardest on themselves, they know they blew the forecast.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

*** Questions About Blown Blizzard Forecasts, and the Gender of Blizzard Forecasters

Block on fracking in Scotland announced by minister

* Increased carbon spill from glaciers sets new puzzle

Long-necked 'dragon' discovered in China: Dinosaur's lightweight neck spanned half the length of its body



Gully patterns document Martian climate cycles



!!! Smothered oceans: Extreme oxygen loss in oceans accompanied past global climate change



Did genetic links to modern maladies provide ancient benefits?

*** Anthropology: Ancient skull from Galilee cave offers clues to the first modern Europeans

* Some potentially habitable planets began as gaseous, Neptune-like worlds



* Missing link in metal physics explains Earth's magnetic field



!!! Quantum computer as detector shows space is not squeezed



Cassini catches Saturn's moon Titan naked in the solar wind



* Researchers produce two bio-fuels from a single algae

*** Ocean acidification changes balance of biofouling communities

!!! Building a better weather forecast? SMAP may help

* Slope on ocean surface lowers sea level in Europe

*** Satellite study identifies water bodies important for biodiversity conservation

Reducing work-family conflicts in the workplace helps people to sleep better

Record sea lion pup strandings reported in Southern California

Germany's clean-energy turning point [Recharge]

* Winnipeg told to boil water after E. Coli found

* Erratic as normal: Arctic sea ice loss expected to be bumpy in the short term
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nobody gets mad, dude. Not even storm chasers.
They don't get. They are. ;)
Actually the February 1978 blizzard was well forecast even by today's standards. Severe winter storms on January 20 1978 and January 25/26 1978 were not well forecast.
Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:

Interesting.




Nice, regardless of the specifics, I do feel confident that we're going to get another significant cold spell in N. Florida before winter winds down into spring.
Quoting 127. BaltimoreBrian:

They don't get. They are. ;)


I guess I did feel that way about Cristobal, but I wouldn't say it's the norm, haha.

Nature will eventually do its thing and provide a storm. I imagine that's the dominant mindset.
I posted some slightly skeptical comments the day before the latest blizzard happened. I was curious that the models blew up so suddenly and that the NWS went for the worst case scenario in NYC/PHL so fast.
Quoting 130. KoritheMan:

I guess I did feel that way about Cristobal, but I wouldn't say it's the norm, haha.

Nature will eventually do its thing and provide a storm. I imagine that's the dominant mindset.
Peering in your Christobal wasn't helpful?



For Trent and Nathan, next year

The 2015 Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship is Open until Jan 30th.


Program description

Requirements


FAQs

Apply in fall of your sophomore year. 106 scholarships awarded last year, so you have a decent shot.

You get an $8,000 scholarship for your junior year, a ten week summer internship at $650 / week and if you maintain your eligibility, another $8,000 scholarship for your senior year.
Quoting 132. BaltimoreBrian:

Peering in your Christobal wasn't helpful?






It showed a very hazy future for Cristobal's flight toward the Gulf Coast.
Since the Northeastern Blizzard of 1978 has been mentioned on the blog...

The website Quahog.org, 'the definitive Rhode Island Rhode Trip', has a page, The Blizzard of 1978, The week the state stood still, that contains many recollectons of the storm and it's aftermath submitted by those who experienced it firsthand.

Here's one:

JP, Bristol, Rhode Island
I remember getting dismissed from school (Guiteras) early and we all went outside to wait for the bus. After an hour or so all other children were picked up by either parents or their buses, but not us. Still outside, but now getting cold, some of us turned to go back inside to get warm. When we attempted to we found that the teachers and the aids have locked the doors and left the school. Here we were, ten or so of us left outside in the cold with no bus. (We later found out that our bus broke down around the corner). We, the ten brave ones, led by the older kids, started trekking the 1.5 mile or so walk home. We all remember the snow barely covering our feet when we left. By the time we got to Adams Drug the snow was almost to our knees. It was a fun walk with everyone, but we were all a little scared and yes, very cold, but we continued. The older kids kept us all moving. After the 1.5 mile walk home most kids went into Adams Drug store to get warm. I decided to continue since my house was about 200 feet away. I remember turning the corner and looking towards my house, but I could not see it, but I just walked in the direction of where I thought my house was. As I started getting closer I remember the sound of snow blowers and shovels and then my neighbor appeared and asked where was I coming from. He helped me get to my house, where my parents were anxiously waiting for me to get home. I remember entering the house, and my father grabbed my chin and pulled a four-inch icicle from my face. I never thought that fire place would feel so good. I think I sat on the stove for four hours...
Quoting 119. sar2401:

I'm a little confused about exactly where this is since both stories seem to make reference to a couple of different towns but the same town manager is each of the stories?

I looked at the houses along Salt Marsh Road, which Streetview thinks are in East Sandwich. Assuming it's the same place as Sandwich, it looks like the pictures were taken sometime in the summer months. A couple of the houses look like they had pre-existing damage based on the roof tarps. I guess most of these houses are summer homes, which is a big problem if a storm is coming in winter, since no one is there to make sure the is is secured as well as possible before the storm hits.

As much as I feel badly for anyone who's going to lose their home, it looks like these house were allowed to be built in the wrong place. No beach lasts forever. No matter how much sand the town dumps on the beach or what diversion structures are built, the ocean is going to win. The only thing that stops water is elevation, which means there's no chance for the beach to rebuild itself as long as the town is trying to save houses. At some point, that area is going to be cleared of structures. One choice is to let storms clear it out. The other is a planned buyout and then restoring the beach area to something resembling what it looked like before people were allowed to build there. The town needs to make decisions about this now.


Double checked the towns. Looks like they are all enclaves that operate under the single municipality of Sandwich. East Sandwich is also one of them also. Very Northeastern way of doing government, I'm sure you know how it works. I wouldn't be surprised if the damage was from earlier nor'easters. Cape Cod was blasted by last March's storm, and we had several storms this past fall that may have taken their toll. Not sure when the image you saw was taken. The street view I'm seeing is from September of 2011 and the homes look undamaged.
Quoting 113. Methurricanes:

I wonder why 3-5 is so unlikely compared to 1-3 or 5-8.
also the storm seems to be trending larger.
I would assume just north/west of Boston (seems right on the mix line) may see up to 8-12 inches if Boston gets 4-6.


Yeah, that looks weird. And why not have <1, 1-4, 4-8, 8-12, etc?
Saw this a few minutes ago, not sure if anyone else has seen it yet:



Tickld

Quoting 133. BaltimoreBrian:

For Trent and Nathan, next year

The 2015 Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship is Open until Jan 30th.


Program description

Requirements


FAQs

Apply in fall of your sophomore year.


I've been aware of it for several months now, the faculty at Millersville keep us posted on all scholarships and available internships. :P
GFS 00z showing a major storm for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Try not to fall for it.
That's an old Scandinavian saying, Nathan--there's no such thing as bad weather, only inadequate clothing ;)
Quoting 139. Drakoen:

GFS 00z showing a major storm for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Try not to fall for it.

Drak did you get that scholarship?

For that matter, what happened to Dakster?
So, I am a 2nd semester freshman/academic sophomore majoring in meteorology that goes to FSU. Even though I have a physical disability that hinders both my motor skills and (slightly) speech, I still wanted to try my hand at broadcasting. Here is my first public video, I would appreciate any constructive criticism. Keep in mind that I must use the segway because I can't balance on my own.

Thanks in advance!
FM
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=621015498045 304&pnref=story
Edit: Sorry for long link
Quoting 139. Drakoen:

GFS 00z showing a major storm for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Try not to fall for it.


HMMMM





Quoting 122. Methurricanes:

Worst flooding since 78'
http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_co verage/2015/01/scituate_seeks_aid_after_storm_sets _quarter_century_record_for
"Scituate saw floodwater as high as eight feet in some areas"


Eight feet above the ground or eight feet above mean low water?
Quoting 143. fmhurricane2009:

So, I am a 2nd semester freshman/academic sophomore majoring in meteorology that goes to FSU. Even though I have a physical disability that hinders both my motor skills and (slightly) speech, I still wanted to try my hand at broadcasting. Here is my first public video, I would appreciate any constructive criticism. Keep in mind that I must use the segway because I can't balance on my own. 

Thanks in advance!
FMhttps://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=621015498045 304&pnref=story


Link says its currently unavailable.
Quoting 139. Drakoen:

GFS 00z showing a major storm for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Try not to fall for it.
I won't............................................. ......... yet.
Quoting 146. VAbeachhurricanes:



Link says its currently unavailable.
I was editing it, it should work now.
Quoting 142. BaltimoreBrian:

Drak did you get that scholarship?

For that matter, what happened to Dakster?

Yes, what did happen to Dakster? Maybe he tried to lick frost off a flagpole and his tongue has been stuck ever since.
Verbatim:

Quoting 149. oldnewmex:


Yes, what did happen to Dakster? Maybe he tried to lick frost off a flagpole and his tongue has been stuck ever since.
Quoting 150. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Verbatim:
Nullus in verba
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Verbatim:



after what took place am not tursting any of the snow fall maps unless the storm is like 1 day a way from land fall
Quoting 143. fmhurricane2009:

So, I am a 2nd semester freshman/academic sophomore majoring in meteorology that goes to FSU. Even though I have a physical disability that hinders both my motor skills and (slightly) speech, I still wanted to try my hand at broadcasting. Here is my first public video, I would appreciate any constructive criticism. Keep in mind that I must use the segway because I can't balance on my own.�

Thanks in advance!
FM
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=621015498045 304&pnref=story
Edit: Sorry for long link


I'm a meteorology student at FSU also, goodluck on your studies and so far so good on the video there!

As for me, I haven't done any work in the studio, I'm heading more in the NWS direction. I'm a senior at 119 credit hours so far, but I'm not graduating until Spring 2016 because I've decided to take some other important courses in programming and non-required courses liked instrumentation and observation, and I might take some additional math like partial differential equations.

Maybe I'll see ya around, and if I go to grad school I might end up being a TA in one of your classes, I've been in classes with Levi from here as well for the 2nd semester in a row since they are dual undergrad/grad courses.
Quoting 150. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Verbatim:




The GFS giveth and taketh
Quoting 138. Astrometeor:

Saw this a few minutes ago, not sure if anyone else has seen it yet:



Tickld



I've been aware of it for several months now, the faculty at Millersville keep us posted on all scholarships and available internships. :P


Don't tell that to some Floridians, I've seen parkas with zipped hoods on cold mornings in the 20's and 30's paired with shorts and flip flops, it's mind boggling. One would think that eventually there would be a desire to wear something other than just flip-flops which are great for the beach and around the yard but are silly elsewhere anyway in my opinion, lol.
Quoting 157. Jedkins01:



I'm a meteorology student at FSU also, goodluck on your studies and so far so good on the video there!

As for me, I haven't done any work in the studio, I'm heading more in the NWS direction. I'm a senior at 119 credit hours so far, but I'm not graduating until Spring 2016 because I've decided to take some other important courses in programming and non-required courses liked instrumentation and observation, and I might take some additional math like partial differential equations.

Maybe I'll see ya around, and if I go to grad school I might end up being a TA in one of your classes, I've been in classes with Levi from here as well for the 2nd semester in a row since they are dual undergrad/grad courses.


Really glad to hear this Jed. Good luck!
Quoting 157. Jedkins01:



I'm a meteorology student at FSU also, goodluck on your studies and so far so good on the video there!

As for me, I haven't done any work in the studio, I'm heading more in the NWS direction. I'm a senior at 119 credit hours so far, but I'm not graduating until Spring 2016 because I've decided to take some other important courses in programming and non-required courses liked instrumentation and observation, and I might take some additional math like partial differential equations.

Maybe I'll see ya around, and if I go to grad school I might end up being a TA in one of your classes, I've been in classes with Levi from here as well for the 2nd semester in a row since they are dual undergrad/grad courses.


I want to go the NWS route as well. Good luck! I know you can do it!
Quoting 160. Drakoen:



Really glad to hear this Jed. Good luck!


Thanks!

Yeah I realized doing so would be a lot more important than graduating quickly, I've been in school long enough to where I'm used to it, and no longer feel the need to rush anything. Besides, it's also much easier to get involved with the NWS while still a student, so additional student work and other classes will give me a much better chance, and from what I've heard is more important than even high grades, since there are plenty of students with decent grades, but not all can program, have taken classes, and have student work experience.

Even then, jobs are tough, but it's always better to try than to assume it won't happen.

This is my last message for the night, I have an 8 am class tomorrow, which is not my cup of tea time for a class, lol
Hard to not get excited about the GFS run. GFS boundary layer temps from top to bottom would allow for high ratio snowfall. 15:1+.

You probably have seen me Jed, I stick out like a sore thumb with my segway in the Love building. I came in with 39 credits from IB and i'll be an Academic Junior as my 3rd semester starts. I am also interested in becoming a NWS or Private met. I know the job market is extremely tough, so I want to maximize my employment chance. I'm thinking of a Met major with either an Comp Sci, Math, or Geography minor (GIS). Whatever would be most likely for a job. As I'll be taking MET2700 next semester I haven't come across Levi, big fan of his videos. And I go to the North Florida NWA. Congrats on nearing graduation! I've heard the drop out rate is brutal for prospective majors because they can't handle the math. I can't handwrite, so i'm learning LaTeX to survive my math classes.
Quoting 161. KoritheMan:



I want to go the NWS route as well. Good luck! I know you can do it!


Thanks man!

Don't give up on your dream too, I once hated math, but came to appreciate it and even like small bits of it later on, differential equations and calc 3 I enjoyed. Math to me is very dry so I don't find any care for it normally, but becomes more interesting with scientific application,

And programming is a pain in the rear but is also valuable and worth getting into for meteorology job options, that and getting student experience at the NWS are from what I've heard, 2 very important things for an NWS direction.
166. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5 hHace 5 horas Ver traducción
There is no super nino, or 2 year nino. JAMSTEC blew cfsv2 out and will do so again. La Nada summer 15, La nina 2016
Quoting 165. Jedkins01:



Thanks man!

Don't give up on your dream too, I once hated math, but came to appreciate it and even like small bits of it later on, differential equations and calc 3 I enjoyed. Math to me is very dry so I don't find any care for it normally, but becomes more interesting with scientific application,

And programming is a pain in the rear but is also valuable and worth getting into for meteorology job options, that and getting student experience at the NWS are from what I've heard, 2 very important things for an NWS direction.



I'm not giving up. I've got a year left in Louisiana before I move on, but I only gave myself that much time because I have a few things I want to do first. A little bit of fun, if you will. Things I won't get to do later (visit a friend, MechaCon one more time).

That year is plenty of time to get the GED in. I've literally done math for a week straight now, and that's more than I've done without quitting in the four years I've been at Walmart.

I'm not worried about it. I hate math, but I'll get it done. Like I said on that status you're talking about, I've already improved a lot in just a month... and that was without it doing it everyday.

As long as I don't procrastinate like I usually end up doing, I got this. My intellect will carry me far.
Quoting 163. Drakoen:

Hard to not get excited about the GFS run. GFS boundary layer temps from top to bottom would allow for high ratio snowfall. 15:1+.




Will be interesting to see what the Euro says
Quoting 145. wxgeek723:



Eight feet above the ground or eight feet above mean low water?
8 feet the streets. 8 feet above mean low water in New England would not even be high tide tides are 10-13 feet in Mass Bay
The BOM monthly Climate and Water Outlook video covers rainfall, streamflow and temperature for the next three months. The next video will be available on 26 February 2015.

Look, it's the negative NAO! The feature looks transient at best right now, but it might help the odds for a significant storm across the Northeast early next week.



Quoting 168. VAbeachhurricanes:



Will be interesting to see what the Euro says

Something different, I'm sure.


Bigger loop

Shear


Shear tendency


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 28/2259 UTC 2015 UTC.


TROPICAL DISTRURBANCE 08F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.0S 177.5W AT
281800UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.


CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH. ORGANSIATION POOR IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE INITIALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTH AND THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.



NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
From the "Not happening but interesting to look at" file:

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That is not all that happened, Philadelphia was also forecasted to get around 20 inches of snow and they got like 2. The NWS can be wrong just like anyone and they have the right to be criticized just like anyone. There was a model consensus for one thing to happen and an outlier to what would happen and the NWS went with the outlier and got it wrong. Lets not act like they did something special in looking at the Euro and going yeah I think that'll happen and say they did an "amazing job".

The NWS should be the hardest on themselves, they know they blew the forecast.
It's kind of funny when one anonymous poster accuses other anonymous posters of being bashers because...well, they're anonymous. It's even funnier coming from someone who thinks cardiac arrest while shoveling snow is classified by a coroner as "exposure".

I don't know where the idea that the NWS was immune to criticism on job performance came from. There's certainly nothing I've posted that I took to be bashing. It's quite instructive to see the head forecaster in Philly be a standup guy and say he was sorry because he got the forecast wrong while seeing others (and their apologists) claim they really did everything right and they're heroes. They really are just humans who are bound to make mistakes. It's not the mistakes that are the most important aspect of forecasting. It's acknowledging they happened and then doing a good followup to see if we can prevent the same mistakes in the future. We can't do that if no one owns their work.

This whole thing reminds me of ordering roses for your significant other. They come and 2 out of the dozen are dead. I call the florist to complain and he tells me I should be happy because 83% of the roses came exactly how I ordered them.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
From the "Not happening but interesting to look at" file:

Now that would be a historic storm. :-)
Quoting wxgeek723:


Double checked the towns. Looks like they are all enclaves that operate under the single municipality of Sandwich. East Sandwich is also one of them also. Very Northeastern way of doing government, I'm sure you know how it works. I wouldn't be surprised if the damage was from earlier nor'easters. Cape Cod was blasted by last March's storm, and we had several storms this past fall that may have taken their toll. Not sure when the image you saw was taken. The street view I'm seeing is from September of 2011 and the homes look undamaged.
Streetview wasn't working very well for that area on my compuiter at least. The only date I could find was the usual Google 2015 copyright date. There were two houses with tarps across the rear (beach) side of the house. That's where I assume the damage would be. It sounded like the house that lost the dormer has been battered by several storms and wasn't in too a good a shape before this storm. Nevertheless, the town really does need to decide what's going to happen to that beach. I don't think they can literally keep throwing money in the ocean forever.

The thing with a bunch of places which aren't really towns getting together under the government umbrella of another place that's not really a town is kind of unique to MA and CT. I took a class once with a bunch of cops from there and I don't think I ever did figure out which departments they really worked for. They kept trying to explain about how they worked for (we'll say) the Sandwich Police Department but they really worked for and patrolled East Sandwich or South Nogginhead. When I asked who patrolled Sandwich they said "Oh, no one. That's just who we work for. It's not really a town". It was one of the most confusing two day periods I ever went through. :-)
ECMWF 00z tracks the system a tad farther south than the GFS 00z. Good Mid-Atlantic snows. The GFS is in the middle of the consensus (GFS-GGEM-ECMWF) this far out.
The Washington Post started a new Energy and Environment section last week.
179. flsky
Be interesting to see their interpretations.
Quoting 178. BaltimoreBrian:

The Washington Post started a new Energy and Environment section last week.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL EUNICE (08-20142015)
10:00 AM RET January 29 2015
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Eunice (958 hPa) located at 15.3S 66.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
55 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
200 NM radius from the center, extending up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 16.5S 66.9E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 17.7S 67.3E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 19.8S 69.9E- 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS 20.2S 74.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
===================
During the past six hours, Eunice has adopted a tiny eye pattern that is warming, showing an intensification.

Under the steering influence of the mid-level near-equatorial ridge, the system is expected to track southeastward until Saturday morning. Within the next 24 hours, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable and Eunice should intensify up to the intense tropical cyclone stage. In the upper levels, under the ridge, the vertical wind shear should keep weak until Sunday and the already existing poleward outflow channel is expected to remain to the south of the system, that should sustain a good upper level divergence.

From Saturday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to shift westward and so Eunice should curve east southeastward. Sunday, environmental conditions begin to deteriorate slowly with the strengthening westerly wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. The system should begin to slowly weakening. Monday, the strengthening vertical wind shear should accelerate the weakening of the system

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIAMONDRA (07-20142015)
10:00 AM RET January 29 2015
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra (989 hPa) located at 20.8S 80.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots..

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 300 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 21.6S 81.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 22.7S 82.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 25.6S 84.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 27.9S 86.9E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
Last animated multispectral imagery depicts the low level vortex, totally exposed at less than 1ao from the residual convective mass south southeastward.

Until Saturday, Diamondra is expected to track generally southeastwards under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge and a transient mid-level trough in its south. The system is likely to keep its current intensity or weaken slowly with the influence of the fluctuating west southwesterly vertical wind shear and of the decreasing ocean heat potential south of 21.0S.

From Saturday, Diamondra should begin its extra-tropicalization on a southward track. The winds are then expected to strengthen in the mid-latitudes general circulation.
181. Tuvon
Quoting 143. fmhurricane2009:

So, I am a 2nd semester freshman/academic sophomore majoring in meteorology that goes to FSU. Even though I have a physical disability that hinders both my motor skills and (slightly) speech, I still wanted to try my hand at broadcasting. Here is my first public video, I would appreciate any constructive criticism. Keep in mind that I must use the segway because I can't balance on my own.�

Thanks in advance!
FM
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=621015498045 304&pnref=story
Edit: Sorry for long link


Fantastic job!

I worked at the university tv station as the chief meteorologist for a few years when I was at Michigan, and I produce shows for private clients for my current position. You have a lot of the skills needed for a great show already, with limited 'um's' and 'uh's' and nice transitions between topics. You kept the show fun and informative, and didn't belabor any one point too long. I would be careful of falling into repetitive speech habits, like saying 'so' before each transition (not a problem that I noticed, but something to watch out for).

I know at a college station it is probably not in the budget to obtain different technologies that might turn your disability into a strength for your presentation, but if you can get your hands on some of the on screen drawing tools and the like, it can make a big difference. One of my coworkers relied a lot on verbal and drawing communication instead of standing in front of the screen while she was in her later months of pregnancy. She would do the start of the weather segment seated and transition into the full screen weather, using the drawing tools and verbal queues to get her point across.

Just a thought!
183. vis0

Quoting 116. sar2401:

I'm not sure what that arrow symbol means. Is that where you were fooling with the ml-d again? Good loop, and it does show another reason why the storm from NYC south didn't perform at the high expectation levels some were giving it. That low that tracked down south was then supposed to go offshore somewhere around NC and then phase with the developing low that was a bit further north. That low not only didn't develop as quickly as forecast, the deeper low to the north outran it. The secondary low then just went out to sea with no phasing with the developing low, thereby denying it some energy that may have helped it to shift expand snow coverage to the west. On such seemingly small things do forecasts hinge.
     It was to read "small puff of clouds in the circle , arrow is the starting path of the LOW to go off shore". (sarCASM) But due to the fact i'm using an excepted HTML editor, (as someONE suggested) instead of a so called outdated writing app that is being revised which i was testing icannot blame that app for my errors.

i blame Sar2401.

Why?

Cause he took the time to let me know that whatever i was using to type did not present itself as well as using "modern" HTML editors.

In listening to Sar2401 i threw away the so called outdated app, my crayons with NEW improved in box sharpener that i was testing and now i don't feel comfy using this new HTML thing so i make mental errors...wheres my blanky!(/sarCASM)

BTW not correcting my typing errors 'cause SAR2401's explanation of how the clip i selected shows the LOW that became a monkey wrench that kept "re-tweaking" the Models that kicked some in the cojones**.  is a better description than anything i could have typed.

AS TO SAR2401 saying:: " "arrow symbol means". Is that where you were fooling with the ml-d again"... ya must be joking you should know by now anything posted between 12:30AM and 12:31AM is not ml-d related, geeesh.

**(was going to say "kicked in the sneaux hoodangs" but those are patraps words)




wow!!
Quoting hurricanes2018:



wow!!


That looks hauntingly familiar. I wonder if the part of it from NYC to the south will verify.


7:16 AM EST on January 29, 2015
Current Radar at 7am System #1: An Alberta Clipper
On Wednesday, a somewhat moisture-starved "Alberta Clipper" cold front advanced out of central Canada into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and then it swung into the eastern Great Lakes, dropping snow throughout the upper peninsula of Michigan as well as producing a wintry mix throughout northern Wisconsin.

It is this particular clipper that is anticipated to quickly move into the interior Northeast on Thursday, and it is expected to spread a blanket of light snow throughout western and central New York through Thursday evening. Generally speaking, you'll need to shovel this snow, but it won't be impactful enough for widespread business and school closures.


However, it becomes more interesting in New England.

Low pressure may wrap up a bit off Cape Cod or in the Gulf of Maine late Friday into early Saturday. While the surface low won't be nearly as strong as Winter Storm Juno, this wrapping low has the potential to wring out heavy snow over parts of northern New England - particularly over the state of Maine - during this time period.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for the entire state of Maine. Winds gusting up to 40 mph Friday night into Saturday could reduce visibilities, and drifting snow could add to dangerous travel in this area.

Some north shore locations and northern suburbs of Boston may see a bit more snow, if those snowbands wrap sufficiently far enough south. Ocean-enhanced snow may persist in parts of Cape Cod through Saturday.

Outside of those areas, this looks again like a nuisance snow on the order of 3 inches or less for most of southern New England, the Lower Hudson Valley (New York City metro) and points south.
190. beell
DC may get some respectable snow this Sunday/Monday. At present, a generally weak system-but perhaps some enhancement provided by a coupling of the sub-tropical and polar jets. 6"? Surface temps should dip below freezing at some point Sunday night to allow accumulation. it will be close. Maybe just to the N of DC.





water temp offshore e.usa have dropped as cold air spreads over it. this should help keep the next storms more manageable
Quoting 157. Jedkins01:



I'm a meteorology student at FSU also, goodluck on your studies and so far so good on the video there!

As for me, I haven't done any work in the studio, I'm heading more in the NWS direction. I'm a senior at 119 credit hours so far, but I'm not graduating until Spring 2016 because I've decided to take some other important courses in programming and non-required courses liked instrumentation and observation, and I might take some additional math like partial differential equations.

Maybe I'll see ya around, and if I go to grad school I might end up being a TA in one of your classes, I've been in classes with Levi from here as well for the 2nd semester in a row since they are dual undergrad/grad courses.


Diff EQ. My my. I remember failing this course epically back in my college days with a professor whose face I never saw, and whose voice resembled the maitre d from the Chinese Restaurant episode of Seinfeld.. "Hmmm... About 5, 10 minute." "Calcalate da slope of da line across dis sphere and den... [insert cranial explosions here]."

Good luck, Jed.

Also, apologies for not being able to post any updates or photos from the blizzard.. The commute home took every ounce of energy I had not to pass out at the wheel due to sheer boredom, and then I simply locked myself in my living room through Wednesday watching reruns of Everybody Loves Raymond and eating soup.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

Valid 12Z Thu Jan 29 2015 - 12Z Sat Jan 31 2015

***More wintry weather from Great Lakes to the Northeast***

***Much colder weather arriving to the Great Plains states***

***Moisture increasing for the southwestern U.S.***

After a brief respite in the weather for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
region, another round of snow is forecast from the Upper Great Lakes to
New England on Thursday and moving offshore on Friday. A mix of rain and
snow is likely from Kentucky to Washington DC since temperatures will be
more marginal in these areas. This event will be considerably weaker than
its monster predecessor a few days ago, with most locations getting less
than six inches of snow. The exception will likely be over Maine, where
greater snowfall amounts are possible.

After widespread high temperatures in the 70s and even low 80s over the
central and southern Plains earlier this week, expect much cooler
temperatures to arrive as a strong surface high slides down from Canada
behind a cold front and expands over much of the Central U.S. to close out
the work week. Highs will be closer to average for this time of year,
along with gusty winds.

Conditions will become increasingly wet over the Southwest and Four
Corners region for the next few days while an elongated upper trough edges
inland over northern Mexico and strong low-level winds advect increasing
Pacific moisture to these areas. This moisture will fuel widespread
moderate to locally heavy precipitation, with the greatest amounts
expected for Arizona and New Mexico. Accumulating snow is expected for
the higher elevations of Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico, and a mix of rain
and snow for the higher elevations of Arizona.

Hamrick

Quoting 173. TropicalAnalystwx13:

From the "Not happening but interesting to look at" file:


That would dive me a foot of snow in East Central ILL.  :D  Right now their calling for 5-8", but 3 days out and that only pans out if both the northern and southern waves phase before passing through ILL.  Usually a coin flip as to if that unfolds.  Just yesterday they were flopping back and forth from that idea alone.

Could use the snow.  Just here alone we had 2" in NOV and an 1" in JAN.  It's been quit dry here despite the drought Index. 
I'm rooting for rain Sunday.Going to a company brunch in AA county so can't afford for this to be a snowstorm.Really looking forward to those MD style crab cakes they have every year (yum).
Quoting 173. TropicalAnalystwx13:
From the "Not happening but interesting to look at" file:



Give it up Cody GFS shows only minor event. All the energy mid next week looks to go across FL per the experts as ricderr says.


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN...SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT A SIGNIFICANT INLAND RETURN OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXCEPT POSSIBLY FL WHERE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY DAY 7. HOWEVER...EXTENT OF
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW
THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE AS IT PHASES WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH AND
DEAMPLIFIES WHILE IT EJECTS THROUGH THE NRN GULF LATER IN THE 4-8
PERIOD.
Quoting 195. ILwthrfan:

That would dive me a foot of snow in East Central ILL.  :D  Right now their calling for 5-8", but 3 days out and that only pans out if both the northern and southern waves phase before passing through ILL.  Usually a coin flip as to if that unfolds.  Just yesterday they were flopping back and forth from that idea alone.

Could use the snow.  Just here alone we had 2" in NOV and an 1" in JAN.  It's been quit dry here despite the drought Index. 


Looks like a 3" to 6" event for you guys.
Quoting 193. LongIslandBeaches:



Diff EQ. My my. I remember failing this course epically back in my college days with a professor whose face I never saw, and whose voice resembled the maitre d from the Chinese Restaurant episode of Seinfeld.. "Hmmm... About 5, 10 minute." "Calcalate da slope of da line across dis sphere and den... [insert cranial explosions here]."

Good luck, Jed.

Also, apologies for not being able to post any updates or photos from the blizzard.. The commute home took every ounce of energy I had not to pass out at the wheel due to sheer boredom, and then I simply locked myself in my living room through Wednesday watching reruns of Everybody Loves Raymond and eating soup.


I actually had to change my college major due to Diff EQ. I was an electrical engineering major, but the calculus classes nearly killed me, and then Diff EQ was the final nail. Like you, my "professor" was a Chinese man who could hardly communicate even simple concepts correctly, let alone advanced calculus. I managed to teach myself the other calculus classes under similar professor experiences, but Diff EQ was too much. I decided I couldn't pursue a career path with such difficult course work if I had to basically teach it all to myself. And I went to a pretty decent university in U of Florida.
201. MahFL
Quoting 119. sar2401:

...As much as I feel badly for anyone who's going to lose their home, it looks like these house were allowed to be built in the wrong place...


People like to live on the ocean front, they know the risks, it's no ones business to tell them they can or cannot build there. My father in laws wife's family has lost 3 homes to hurricanes, they just regard it as an inconvenience, because they love living next to the Gulf of Mexico. ( They have money ).
Quoting 198. StormTrackerScott:



Looks like a 3" to 6" event for you guys.
Last year we had 5 separate 8" snow storms.  Every one of them with a lot wind.  A lot of places broke the records set in the 70's for annual snowfall accumulation.  Many areas had 60 "  Typical average season here is 20-30".   Even a 3-6" event here would be the headliner for our area season-to-date. 

Looking forward to these!
Quoting 201. MahFL:



People like to live on the ocean front, they know the risks, it's no ones business to tell them they can or cannot build there. My father in laws wife's family has lost 3 homes to hurricanes, they just regard it as an inconvenience, because they love living next to the Gulf of Mexico. ( They have money ).
Yep...We lost a house on the N.J. Coast due to the December 1992 Nor,easter.. It was rough on many folks that were recovering from the The Perfect Storm of 1991 , and the January Nor, Easter of 1992..

Quoting 204. hydrus:

Yep...We lost a house on the N.J. Coast due to the December 1992 Nor,easter.. It was rough on many folks that were recovering from the The Perfect Storm of 1991 , and the January Nor, Easter of 1992..


your right its no ones business but there but i wish they would stop crying about they need help everytime they get wiped out from a storm. if you build there and accept the risk then you pay for it when you get wiped out.
Quoting 201. MahFL:



People like to live on the ocean front, they know the risks, it's no ones business to tell them they can or cannot build there. My father in laws wife's family has lost 3 homes to hurricanes, they just regard it as an inconvenience, because they love living next to the Gulf of Mexico. ( They have money ).
i just wish when people that choose this risk get wiped out they would stop always crying about FEMA not being quick enough or mean old insurance company didnt pay them enough... if you choose to live in a dangerous place then you pay for it when you get smacked. here in florida when the government was going to stop subsidizing , or paying for most, of these people flood insurance they went berserk, seems they want to buy in the risky flood areas but they also want the government to pay their flood insurance... meanwhile many of these same people are opposed to the government subsidizing health care for the poorest among us.... go figure.
Quoting 201. MahFL:



People like to live on the ocean front, they know the risks, it's no ones business to tell them they can or cannot build there. My father in laws wife's family has lost 3 homes to hurricanes, they just regard it as an inconvenience, because they love living next to the Gulf of Mexico. ( They have money ).


Respectfully, this might be one of the most ridiculous things I have read in a while. Constructing a house over and over again due to a total loss is an "inconvenience"? I'm sorry, but there are plenty of really nice places to live, many very close to the water, that wouldn't involve someone having to plan to rebuild their home every once in a while. This sounds like the definition of pure waste to me. Just my opinion and I respect yours.
Earth Image of the day-twin cyclones.Link
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EUNICE (08-20142015)
16:00 PM RET January 29 2015
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Eunice (944 hPa) located at 16.1 S 66.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
55 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
200 NM radius from the center, extending up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 17.4S 67.2E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 18.7S 67.7E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 20.1S 70.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 20.2S 75.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
During the past six hours, Eunice has strengthened. Classical and microwave (SSMI 1022z) satellite imagery reveal a warming eye and a ring of intense convection. Current assessment is coherent with AMSU data.

Under the steering influence of the upper near-equatorial ridge, the system is expected to track southeastward up to Saturday morning. On Friday, the upper equatorward divergence is forecast to become less good. But, thanks to the low vertical wind shear and a good poleward outflow, Eunice should remain its intensity.

From Saturday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to extend westward and so Eunice should curve eastwards then east southeastwards from Monday. Environmental conditions begin to deteriorate slowly with the strengthening westerly wind shear. The system should begin to slowly weakening. Monday, the strengthening vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should accelerate the weakening of the system.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DIAMONDRA (07-20142015)
16:00 PM RET January 29 2015
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Diamondra (989 hPa) located at 21.2S 80.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots..

Gale Force Winds
==============
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 290 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 22.1S 81.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 23.7S 82.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 26.4S 85.0E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 29.9S 88.2E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
During the past six hours, Diamondra's center has shift under the convective mass and the low level circulation is partially exposed northwest of the deep convection. The system has moved southward.

Diamondra is expected to track southeastwards under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge and a transient mid-level trough in its south. The system is forecast to sink southward from the beginning of the next week. Diamondra is likely to weaken slowly with the influence of the fluctuating west southwesterly vertical wind shear and of the decreasing ocean heat potential south of 21.0S

From Sunday, Diamondra should begin its extra-tropicalization. The winds are expected to strengthen in the mid-latitudes general circulation. It is likely to achieve its extra-tropicalization on Monday.
Quoting 205. intampa:

your right its no ones business but there but i wish they would stop crying about they need help everytime they get wiped out from a storm. if you build there and accept the risk then you pay for it when you get wiped out. i just wish when people that choose this risk get wiped out they would stop always crying about FEMA not being quick enough or mean old insurance company didnt pay them enough... if you choose to live in a dangerous place then you pay for it when you get smacked. here in florida when the government was going to stop subsidizing , or paying for most, of these people flood insurance they went berserk, seems they want to buy in the risky flood areas but they also want the government to pay their flood insurance... meanwhile many of these same people are opposed to the government subsidizing health care for the poorest among us.... go figure.
My Grandparents lived there since the 30,s..They never complained and moved to Phili..:)
The event for next week looks to be a little bit more straight forward that the storm from earlier this week. The energy is currently in western Alaska and has been sampled by the RAOB network. There is enough higher heights over the western CONUS to prevent a complete phase at this time. The good thing about this event is we'll have cold air already in place to prevent the system from coming too far west or north. 
Silver Spring, MD (NWS Forecast):

Sunday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
211. MahFL
Quoting 206. tampabaymatt:



Respectfully, this might be one of the most ridiculous things I have read in a while. Constructing a house over and over again due to a total loss is an "inconvenience"? I'm sorry, but there are plenty of really nice places to live, many very close to the water, that wouldn't involve someone having to plan to rebuild their home every once in a while. This sounds like the definition of pure waste to me. Just my opinion and I respect yours.


They own some land, so they want to rebuild on that land they own. Several families live on what they call the compound. Also I am sure all of the people involved in the local building industry appreciate their business.
We are talking losing 3 homes in a 60 year period, it's not every season lol.
Also local building codes have forced them to build higher, at greater cost.
Good Morning Folks. Here is the current North American Jet set up per GFS for today as we head towards the weekend:



Quoting 210. Drakoen:

The event for next week looks to be a little bit more straight forward that the storm from earlier this week. The energy is currently in western Alaska and has been sampled by the RAOB network. There is enough higher heights over the western CONUS to prevent a complete phase at this time. The good thing about this event is we'll have cold air already in place to prevent the system from coming too far west or north. 
Silver Spring, MD (NWS Forecast):

Sunday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


You see this as being a much more snow producer for NYC than the past one?

Quoting 213. Tropicsweatherpr:



You see this as being a much more snow producer for NYC than the past one?
Hard to say at this point. This event looks better for people who missed out on the big totals of the last storm such as the eastern half of PA, western NJ, South of the Mason-Dixon line in the Mid-Atlantic.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015


MDZ003-502-VAZ028-031-WVZ050>053-504-291700-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.150129T1800Z-150130T0000Z/
WASHINGTON-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
356 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH.
ICE ACCUMULATION A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS MAY BECOME ICY...RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING RUSH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
good morning...we're looking forward to what could be a rainy afternoon and evening here in el paso.......by saturday morning our january rainfall totals could be at much as 4 times our monthly average.......yep....we're talking about an inch and a quarter... :-)
There's always Fort Myers if you want warm and dry weather.
Quoting ricderr:
good morning...we're looking forward to what could be a rainy afternoon and evening here in el paso.......by saturday morning our january rainfall totals could be at much as 4 times our monthly average.......yep....we're talking about an inch and a quarter... :-)


You're kicking our butt down here in S.W. Fl.
.55" for December and January combined
.35" for December and January combined in Naples, Fl.
This is the DC (Drought Code) for Cape Coral/Fort Myers area.
As you can see it is slowly increasing as time goes on.


The DC is a numerical rating of the moisture content of deep, compact, organic layers. It is a useful indicator of seasonal drought and shows the likelihood of fire involving the deep duff layers and large logs. A long period of dry weather (the system uses 52 days) is needed to dry out these fuels and affect the Drought Code. A DC rating of 200 is high, and 300 or more is extreme indicating that fire will involve deep sub-surface and heavy fuels. Burning off should not be permitted when the DC rating is above 300.


Shortwave near the Carolinas.
Over the past day we have seen a lot of snow here in North-West England. 10 cm so far and more is forecast to come tonight and tomorrow. Most schools, including mine, are closed today, and will likely be closed tomorrow too. Good thing I don't have any exams this week!

Snow at my house. Photos from this morning.






i think the temp there was "pretty" sorry don't know how to make it smaller
NAM12z starting to agree with the consensus after a 1047mb high drops down from Canada.

Quoting 224. Drakoen:

NAM12z starting to agree with the consensus after a 1047mb high drops down from Canada.




Damn, Had enough snow already here on the Northern Jersey Shore, please send this elsewhere.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Damn, Had enough snow already here on the Northern Jersey Shore, please send this elsewhere.




ok send it too CA where we need it the olny thing you have too do is pay for shipping it here and the shiping cost is $1000

this playing
Navgem for Monday............................................ ......................
Gem model for Tuesday........................................... ...............................
Quoting 228. LargoFl:

Gem model for Tuesday........................................... ...............................
Last Tuesday?
Quoting 225. mcluvincane:



Damn, Had enough snow already here on the Northern Jersey Shore, please send this elsewhere.
I don't want any snow period.
Where is Wash?
Edit: Got here as I was posting! Abandon all hope!

Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

I don't want any snow period.


LOL.
Winter storms are a normal part of "winter" and the impacts of Juno notwithstanding, I think that one of the other notable weather stories of the last few days has been the record warm in parts of the Mid-West. Pretty amazing watching TWC last night with the record highs for the day for part of Kansas (and other areas) of 78 degrees in the dead of winter.

Those jet stream kinks are something to keep an eye on in the coming decades in a climate change environment. As I have noted over the years, tree rings and earth core samples, have confirmed and given us a pretty good idea of past cooling and warming events on Earth but we don't have a clue what the jet stream looked like in the past (before the modern satt era). Seems to me that all past climate changes events have been accompanied by jet stream patterns that may have been similar to some of the patterns we are currently starting to experience.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
GFS 12z very consistent with it's previous runs. Excellent hit for the Ohio Valley and even better for the Mid-Atlantic. About as good as it gets.
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

I don't want any snow period.


I guess the recent blizzard dashed all your hopes for snow. :(
237. vis0

Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

I don't want any snow period.
a little reverse phycho..logy
Quoting 157. Jedkins01:



I'm a meteorology student at FSU also, goodluck on your studies and so far so good on the video there!

As for me, I haven't done any work in the studio, I'm heading more in the NWS direction. I'm a senior at 119 credit hours so far, but I'm not graduating until Spring 2016 because I've decided to take some other important courses in programming and non-required courses liked instrumentation and observation, and I might take some additional math like partial differential equations.

So in a few years we'll be able to blame you for those busted blizzard forecasts? ;)
So how much snow did NYC get out of this system? On the morning news NYC was getting sleet and freezing rain.

A few day ago, this was supposed to be a major snow for NYC.
Quoting vis0:

a little reverse phycho..logy


There's always a chance mother nature decides to pass the ball from the one yard line.

In other words, expect the unexpected.