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A Striking Change in Lightning Deaths

By: Bob Henson 5:21 PM GMT on January 22, 2015

Already, the 21st century has brought us the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928 (Katrina, 2005) and the deadliest tornado since 1947 (Joplin, 2011). Here's much better news: the death toll from lightning has plummeted across the nation in recent decades, and the progress is holding up nicely. Veteran lightning analyst Ron Holle presented an update on national and global casualty trends at the American Meteorological Society's annual meeting in Phoenix earlier this month.


Figure 1. Cloud-to-ground lightning emanates from a summer storm in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on July 15, 2014. Image credit: wunderphotographer Don Armstrong.

A century ago, lightning killed more than 400 people in the United States each year, at a time when the nation's population was much lower. Back then, most Americans lived on acreages or in small towns, and lightning tended to strike people while they were working on the farm or ranch. Today, the U.S. death toll averages less than 30 per year. Unlike most other severe weather threats, lightning tends to kill people one by one, so there haven't been any mega-disasters to interrupt the long-term improvement. The progress is even more dramatic when looking at the death toll per million (see Figure 2, below).


Figure 2. U.S. lightning deaths per million people (red line) and the percentage of the population classified as rural (blue line). Image credit: Ron Holle, updated from López and Holle 1998.

What's behind the improvement? Holle cites a variety of factors, including the availability of lightning-safe buildings and metal-topped, fully-enclosed vehicles (i.e., cars and trucks) as ready sources of shelter. He also stresses the importance of NOAA's lightning safety initiatives, which have ramped up greatly over the last 15 years. The mantra "when thunder roars, go indoors" is widely known, and people are now urged to stay inside until at least 30 minutes have passed since the last clap of thunder.

When Americans do die from lightning, it's more likely they're boating on the lake instead of plowing the south forty. According to a statistical breakdown featured on the National Weather Service’s Lightning Safety website, leisure activities accounted for 64% of the 261 U.S. lightning deaths reported from 2006 to 2013. Routine daily or weekly chores, such as taking care of yard work or tending to farm animals, account for only 16% of deaths. Among leisure activities, the largest single category is "water-related," with nearly half of those deaths associated with fishing. The University of Florida has an extensive website on lightning’s hazard to sailboats. Being a sports fan also has its hazards: last month, seven people were taken to the hospital with minor injuries after a strike hit a car parked at Tampa Bay’s Raymond James Stadium following a Tampa Bay-Green Bay football game.

Lightning kills far more people in other countries
Data on lightning deaths around the world are hard to come by, said Holle, but the most recent analysis suggests that as many as 24,000 people around the world are killed by lightning in a typical year. The highest per-capita fatality rates are in southern Africa, whereas the largest national toll by far is in India, still a highly agricultural society with more than 1.2 billion residents. A typical year sees about 1,700 Indians killed by lightning.

U.S. society is affected more by lightning than our improving death toll might suggest. It's been estimated that for every person killed, roughly ten people are injured, often with life-changing consequences. And the proliferation of home electronics and gizmos means that a typical home lightning strike wreaks more havoc than it used to. According to Holle, the average U.S. insurance claim from a home strike was around $900 in the late 1990s, but more than $5000 in 2013. Structural fires caused by lightning inflict about half a billion in U.S. damage each year, according to the National Fire Protection Association. Throw in the additional expense from lightning-damaged utility systems, plus the average $1.8 billion in costs related to fighting wildfires triggered by lightning, and the broad economic toll of lightning becomes evident. (I’ve seen this on a personal scale, having lost a home computer to a lightning strike several years ago—thanks in part to an inadequate surge protector.)

Along with the increased damage that a single lightning strike can inflict on our highly wired society, lightning itself could become more frequent in coming decades. New research covered by Jeff Masters last autumn suggests the potential for 50% more lightning by the end of this century in a business-as-usual emissions scenario.

A manuscript expanding on Holle’s talk can be downloaded from the abstract web page. Video presentations will be linked to abstracts in February.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Lightning prowls the cityscape of Tucson, Arizona, near sunset on August 13, 2012. Photo credit: wunderphotographer ChandlerMike.

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"striking"
following a Tampa Bay-Green Bay playoff game.

Tampa Bay went 2 & 14, as that was no playoff game, it was the Dec 21 reg season week 16 game

Facts matta'
i love the lightning pictures!!
Mongolia, the land of THREE suns: Sunshine passing through falling snow creates rare 'anthelion' optical illusion

The sight of three suns in the sky is enough to make most of us rub our eyes in disbelief, but centuries ago, the strange sight was seen as a bad omen.
The unusual spectacle, called a parhelion, was captured on camera in Mongolia.
It is the result of a natural phenomenon in which sunlight passes though snow crystals in a particular way when they are suspended in the air.

Link
A Striking Change in Lightning Deaths
'Vindskip' cargo ship uses its hull as a giant sail

Shippers traditionally favored polluting residual bunker fuels because they were cheap, with large ships having the space to transport the pre-heaters necessary to make the fuel volatile.

But all that is about to change.

Current international regulations cap sulfur content at 3.5% but this is expected to drop to 0.5% by 2020.

"This makes things quite dramatic," said Lade. "There are not many good solutions to this. At the moment they can wash the exhaust with scrubbers but on big ships this is very complex and very expensive.

"This is where the 'Vindskip' comes in -- due to the low fuel consumption it can run on LNG which means there is no sulfur at all."

One of Norway's biggest shipowners, Wilhelmsen, has already entered the project on a technical basis and, while Lade is quietly confident the world's first Vindskip will slip into the water by 2019, he says the global shipping industry had been slow to respond to his design.

"(But) the big driving force in the Vindskip project will be these new regulations on sulfur levels," Lade said.
Thank you for the interesting update. Wow, 24.000 deaths a year because of lightning? I would never have assumed such a large number!

Here is a video of lightning in Europe 2014 which gets really colorful after the first third, later on in the year even far into the north of Scandinavia due to the unusual hot temperatures over there last summer:


Lightning over Europe detected by TOA lightning detection network Blitzortung.org during whole year 2014.

(Collection of videos of today's huge hail event in Sicily happened to be at the end of the last blog - as always ;-) - Don't want to repeat them here though.)
Thanks Bob. Interesting...
Quoting 2. Patrap:

following a Tampa Bay-Green Bay playoff game.

Tampa Bay went 2 & 14, as that was no playoff game, it was the Dec 21 reg season week 16 game

Facts matta'



Damn! Thought I'd made it here early enough to be the one to catch this one! LOL

Additionally, I'd like to point out to Mr. Henson that I totally dig his writing style. It's accessible and easily comprehendible, yet still scientific. It's a pleasure (and a lesson!) to read your posts.
Ehhh... it's too warm for January. Looks like we're going to have an early bloom out of all the trees and plants if something doesn't change soon.
ZZZZ. ZZZZZ. ZZZZ..

Not worried about lightning in the DC area until we get some airmasses that are capbable
of convection, a rare thing in the winter third of the year. But the season starts in March.

Good news on reduction in lightning deaths.

I've posted before but new readers may take interest that in the huge Feb 1983 snow dump (15" from DC to Maine)
I was X country skiing in Princeton NJ. At least I started out the door with skis on but the cloud to ground lighting in this snowstorm was so frequent and close I felt unsafe as soon as I stepped into the front yard and I retreated inside. Frequency was more than 1/minute and there was no measurable time interval between flash and loud thunder.
Quoting 2. Patrap:

following a Tampa Bay-Green Bay playoff game.

Tampa Bay went 2 & 14, as that was no playoff game, it was the Dec 21 reg season week 16 game

Facts matta'



I've asked this question before on the blog. (so it may be hackneyed )

Since I am a Washington DC football team fan I wonder

What is this word "playoff"? I no understand.
Great Blog. While not a huge factor in the overall numbers (death wise), the NWS Programs have really helped and we have seen in recent years that most college and professional football games, as well and golf tournaments, in the US have weather monitors to suspend play and so forth if potential lightening storms threaten during a game for the players and spectators.
17. bwi
Still thinking the coastal storm will be warm with minimal impacts in DC; and now even the clipper that follow looks like it's on a more northerly track, keeping DC in the warm sector. Too bad, I had high hopes for that clipper. We'll see.
Thank you Mr Henson,
What an enlightening subject for a Thursday blog.
I would never have thought or guessed that anything like that number of people we annually killed by lightening.

This snow lightning we keep getting reports of is very interesting, as that may become a future player in people strikes during the winter storms when people are about trying to do things.


fast moving storm for the northeast
Here is a list of notable snowfall totals as of 11 a.m. EST Thursday:

- 14 inches in Sedillo, New Mexico
- 13 inches in Canyon, Texas
- 13 inches reported near Amarillo, Texas
- 11.5 inches reported near Colorado Springs, Colorado
- 9 inches Dalhart, Texas
- 8 inches in Amarillo, Texas
- 8 inches near Tres Ritos, New Mexico
- 5 inches in Cimarron, New Mexico
- 4 inches near Los Alamos, New Mexico
- 2 inches near Santa Fe, New Mexico
- 2 inches near Denver, Colorado
- 1.1 inches near Albuquerque, New Mexico

Winter storm warnings have been posted for portions of the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains, including Santa Fe and Amarillo, for moderate to heavy snowfall. Winds gusts of over 30 mph are also possible through Thursday.
BeijingAir @BeijingAir · 51m 51 minutes ago

01-23-2015 01:00; PM2.5; 300.0; 350; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


Current Radar at 1pm on January 22, 2015 heavy rain
Not a drop here yet in Baton Rouge...and hot off the press:


Here is a list of notable snowfall totals as of 11 a.m. EST Thursday:


you forgot el paso....we're at 0.15
The COC of the Gulf low is moving pretty quickly at the moment and will be approaching the Coast of LA over the next 6-12 hours or so; remains to be seen on the timing of the current general NE movement and when the trajectory will flatten out towards the East along the coast as suggested by some of the currently models; basically waiting for the turn.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2 _floater_2&width=640&height=480&number _of_images_to_display=12






Quoting 4. txjac:

Mongolia, the land of THREE suns: Sunshine passing through falling snow creates rare 'anthelion' optical illusion

The sight of three suns in the sky is enough to make most of us rub our eyes in disbelief, but centuries ago, the strange sight was seen as a bad omen.
The unusual spectacle, called a parhelion, was captured on camera in Mongolia.
It is the result of a natural phenomenon in which sunlight passes though snow crystals in a particular way when they are suspended in the air.

Link

This was a cool article, in particular the mentions of this occurring throughout history. I have a question for any weather/history guys/gals...in the video it says an anthelion ('sundog') needs -30C to occur, yet the article discusses historical occurrences of this event. One was specifically identified as in the UK, others were written about by French, Roman, and Greek philosophers. Now, -30C is -22F, so it seemed really cold to me (for Europe)...upon checking Wiki it's not gotten that cold in the UK. So, is the video incorrect, or is it the lack of recorded history the issue? The UK event apparently occurred in 1461.
Quoting 26. ricderr:


Here is a list of notable snowfall totals as of 11 a.m. EST Thursday:


you forgot el paso....we're at 0.15



Make a video...you could give that kid in Ireland some competition :)
Looks pretty likely now that the East Coast will see its first significant coastal storm/Nor'easter of the year. Not going to be a blockbuster for snow, more of a mix for most of the I95 cities, but a general 2-5" from DC right up through NYC, with perhaps a little more for Boston. Lack of a strong high to the north really lowers the snow potential. It's a double whammy: it causes a lack of Arctic air, so marginal thermal profiles, and the lack of baroclinicity causes the northwest quadrant of the storm to be less impressive, so less QPF.



South Atlantic storm?


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.01.2015
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 26.2S 44.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.01.2015 24 26.2S 44.2W 1013 28
0000UTC 24.01.2015 36 26.3S 43.7W 1012 26
1200UTC 24.01.2015 48 28.9S 44.2W 1012 27
0000UTC 25.01.2015 60 31.2S 42.7W 1011 26
1200UTC 25.01.2015 72 35.0S 41.4W 1009 25
0000UTC 26.01.2015 84 36.3S 39.4W 1008 22
1200UTC 26.01.2015 96 CEASED TRACKING


Link


4.7 earthquake Lakeview
There was a 4.7 earthquake that occurred near Lakeview on January 22, 2015 at 04:09 am Eastern Time. This is considered a light earthquake with significant damage unlikely. This temblor occurred at a depth of 1 km, which is a shallow-focus earthquake (0-70 km deep).
Quoting 28. LAbonbon:


This was a cool article, in particular the mentions of this occurring throughout history. I have a question for any weather/history guys/gals...in the video it says an anthelion ('sundog') needs -30C to occur, yet the article discusses historical occurrences of this event. One was specifically identified as in the UK, others were written about by French, Roman, and Greek philosophers. Now, -30C is -22F, so it seemed really cold to me (for Europe)...upon checking Wiki it's not gotten that cold in the UK. So, is the video incorrect, or is it the lack of recorded history the issue? The UK event apparently occurred in 1461.





The snow crystals that produce these refractions are aloft and temperatures below -30C are common above 30,000 feet at all seasons and above 15,000 feet in winter in most of the midlatitudes. Sundogs aren't all that rare either.
NEXRAD Radar

Houston-Galveston, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

via classic wu as the upgraded site radar controls are a disaster in itself.




12Z Euro drops a Blizzard over South & North Carolina. Euro delivering a bomb to NC.

The images of day 9 thru 10 would be a snow lovers dream across the south.



Quoting 33. georgevandenberghe:



The snow crystals that produce these refractions are aloft and temperatures below -30C are common above 30,000 feet at all seasons and above 15,000 feet in winter in most of the midlatitudes. Sundogs aren't all that rare either.



Space, is cold.

The Biosphere warms as you get below the Troposphere...

CO2 absorbs long wave radiation...

Were adding giga tonnes of CO2 everyday to the biosphere 24/7/365.

Guess what that does to the lowest column near the surface?

Check Beijing's Air Quality this Hour.



also the CO2ppm for Dec 2014 compared to 2013.

Its a wery,wery,bad trend for Humankind and all Earth inhabitants.

Quoting 36. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro drops a Blizzard over South & North Carolina.




Is that, "it drops the scenario",or does it "drops a boat load of Sneaux" ?

We need specific's Man !.

: )



the duck are back!! maybe the duck knows the storm is coming on saturday
Quoting 38. Patrap:



Is that, "it drops the scenario",or does it "drops a boat load of Sneaux" ?

We need specific's Man !.

: )




LOL. Snow and strong N winds. Again long range so take it with a grain of salt but this is the first winter storm I've seen on the models so far this Winter impacting the south.
H/T to Paratrap for catching the "playoff" reference. (Facts do matter :-). Fixed! --Bob

Quoting 2. Patrap:

following a Tampa Bay-Green Bay playoff game.

Tampa Bay went 2 & 14, as that was no playoff game, it was the Dec 21 reg season week 16 game

Facts matta'

It would be nice to get some fresh cold air into C & S FL before the high heat & humidity starts arriving in several weeks. Usually mid February is cut off of freezing temps in Orlando. The last few years we have failed to hit the freezing mark.
My wife wont let me watch the models.

She insist I do real time weather .

So,...................
Quoting 41. BobHenson:

H/T to Paratrap for catching the "playoff" reference. (Facts do matter :-). Fixed! --Bob





Jus alil rib to welcome your insight here Bob.

We enjoy yer posts..and the threads have been good behind them too.

Also,thanks for the Wings, never had them here before, although the USMC called me something else as well.

: )

Paratrap



Quoting 43. Patrap:

My wife wont let me watch the models.

She insist I do real time weather .

So,...................


I hear ya. The Euro is notorious for producing bombs in the long range only to trend weaker like the GFS.
Thank you,Mr. Henson. Interesting./<:)
Who in their right mind would ever listen to Rush Limbaugh. I wonder about JB sometimes.

From JB
REBUTTAL TO THE REBUTTAL
January 22 02:12 PM
A guy called in the Rush Limbaugh show and claimed a science teacher had done the experiment and the decrease in psi from 70 to 49 F was 1.5lbs per square inch. These are different than the figures in the rebuttal to my idea of course.
But it hit me that I have a practical real world argument ( By the way I am not a Patriots fan. Garrett is. In the NFC I like the Eagles, in the AFC the Steelers..but overall I am not a big pro football fan)
If you grow up on the Jersey shore, or Long Island, or New England you now April can be a nasty month. When I was a kid, we would play pick up basketball games all the time in April. Many times a howling wind off the water would have the temperature at the shore in the 40s. In baseball, that meant the bat would sting all the time when you hit the ball. But in basketball, you would come out of the house bouncing the ball fine, but 30 minutes into the game much tougher.
In the end, its amazing people are this worked up about this. But I posted the rebuttal, right or wrong and since the theory I spouted is now on the most widely listened to talk show in America, I decided to mention it. But you pump a basketball up in a 75 degree environment then see what happens when you are outside playing with it in the 40s. So when I thought about that, I thought well perhaps there is validity to my idea. Real world experience tells me that, though admittedly its with a basketball.
Pretty wild. The nation is up in arms over this, but many much more serious things, people simply let them go by.


Snow in Amarillo, Texas, Jan. 21, 2015.
Im glad you posted that and not I scott,

..but your completely right to say that and it is, the article, kinda weird to say the least.

Science should be above the din of Political rhetoric from any side, party, group, or clan.
Next thing you know Congress will be preventing actual EPA Scientist from testifying at Science committee hearing's too.

O snap"..

O wait....

Issued by The National Weather Service
Houston/Galveston, TX
Thu, Jan 22, 1:00 pm CST
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 300 PM CST
* AT 1257 PM CST... RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAIN GAGES INDICATE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AND ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS RATES INCREASE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RUNOFF AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADWAYS!
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA... SOUTHEASTERN PEARLAND... LEAGUE CITY... BAYTOWN... TEXAS CITY... FRIENDSWOOD... LA PORTE... DEER PARK... NORTHERN LAKE JACKSON... ALVIN... ANGLETON... DICKINSON... LA MARQUE... SANTA FE... SEABROOK... WEBSTER... HITCHCOCK... MANVEL... KEMAH AND CLEAR LAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
&&
Quoting 51. Patrap:

Next thing you know Congress will be preventing actual EPA Scientist from testifying at Science committee hearing's too.

O snap"..

O wait....

Okay, I've gotten a bit overwhelmed by the weird doings of the anti-science senators...have they really blocked EPA scientists from testifying?

I recently was cleaning out and filing my bookmarks (they were in critical overload), and came across this classic from last year. One shudders to think what they will be able to pull off with a majority.
Holy cow! Link
Freeze line deep into Florida..If it happens at all..
Quoting 36. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro drops a Blizzard over South & North Carolina. Euro delivering a bomb to NC.

The images of day 9 thru 10 would be a snow lovers dream across the south.





Almost all of North Carolina sees a foot of snow. It won't happen like that, but that'd be awesome.
Quoting 57. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Almost all of North Carolina sees a foot of snow. It won't happen like that, but that'd be awesome.


The GFS has been consistent with a major snowstorm for the SE net weekend for about 4 days now.
Quoting 48. StormTrackerScott:

Who in their right mind would ever listen to Rush Limbaugh. I wonder about JB sometimes.

From JB
REBUTTAL TO THE REBUTTAL
January 22 02:12 PM
A guy called in the Rush Limbaugh show and claimed a science teacher had done the experiment and the decrease in psi from 70 to 49 F was 1.5lbs per square inch. These are different than the figures in the rebuttal to my idea of course.
But it hit me that I have a practical real world argument ( By the way I am not a Patriots fan. Garrett is. In the NFC I like the Eagles, in the AFC the Steelers..but overall I am not a big pro football fan)
If you grow up on the Jersey shore, or Long Island, or New England you now April can be a nasty month. When I was a kid, we would play pick up basketball games all the time in April. Many times a howling wind off the water would have the temperature at the shore in the 40s. In baseball, that meant the bat would sting all the time when you hit the ball. But in basketball, you would come out of the house bouncing the ball fine, but 30 minutes into the game much tougher.
In the end, its amazing people are this worked up about this. But I posted the rebuttal, right or wrong and since the theory I spouted is now on the most widely listened to talk show in America, I decided to mention it. But you pump a basketball up in a 75 degree environment then see what happens when you are outside playing with it in the 40s. So when I thought about that, I thought well perhaps there is validity to my idea. Real world experience tells me that, though admittedly its with a basketball.
Pretty wild. The nation is up in arms over this, but many much more serious things, people simply let them go by.

You should wonder about JB all the time
Quoting 58. VAbeachhurricanes:



The GFS has been consistent with a major snowstorm for the SE net weekend for about 4 days now.

Yeah, I was just talking to one of my friends I'm not sure how I feel about that. Consensus for a major winter storm across the Southeast 9-10 days out hardly ever happens. I'm sure Mother Nature will find a way to give us all rain.

Cautiously optimistic. Alaskan and West U.S. ridging with arctic highs sliding across the Great Lakes and an active subtropical jet is good news for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, however.


to warm in east haven for snow right now
Quoting 62. VAbeachhurricanes:

Cool video of a Volcano erupting in Mexico today


"European Storm Forecast Exeperiment" Estofex is a little bit excited with our vortex "Iustus" in the Med, which caused excessive rains und hail with strong winds and accordingly some damage in Sicily today. Well, something warm-cored, although tiny, in the Med this time of the year ...

SYNOPSIS (from Storm Forecast, Valid: Fri 23 Jan 2015 06:00 to Sat 24 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Thu 22 Jan 2015 17:03, Forecaster: TUSCHY)
A cyclonic vortex, almost cut off of the westerlies, bobs up and down over the CNTRL Mediterranean. Downstream, deep SW-erlies advect a moist and unstable air mass towards Greece and Turkey, whereas upstream advection consists of a dry continental air mass from CNTRL Europe towards the W-Mediterranean. Wave train of progressive troughs continues over N-Europe.
Most interesting feature -synoptic-wise- is an ongoing small-scale low pressure area over the SE-Tyrrhenian Sea. SSTs of 14-16 C beneath cold mid-levels support widespread modest CAPE of 300-700 J/kg (SBCAPE) over the Tyrrhenian Sea. Phase diagrams show a pronounced kink towards a transient shallow warm-core structure in lowest 3-4 km AGL. Run-to-run consistency is good with peak mean sea level pressure forecasts of 986-990 hPa.
During the start of the forecast, this vortex should be in full strength either just offshore of or just onshore over Campania (SW-Italy). Thereafter, models agree in a cyclonic turn of this feature towards the SW and later-on towards the S. Despite slightly warmer mid-levels, SSTs also increase a bit just north of Sicily, so probabilities remain augmented that a strong vortex comes ashore either over Sicily or over W-Calabria. Main threat during the vortex's passage will be strong winds and heavy rain. Channeling of the wind between the vortex and the Madonie/Nebrodi and Peloritani Ranges (N/NE Sicily) could locally push winds to severe strength. Locally excessive rain is also possible over N-Sicily and SW Italy (spots of 100 l/qm/24h).
In case of landfall over Campania during the start of the forecast, a much weaker system could be the result or even a dissolving system could occur (shown by some 12Z runs). Its path has to be monitored closely.



Click to enlarge.


Current infrared loop (hehehe, do I spot the development of an eye just off the south-western coast of Italy?)
Saved loop. Source for updates.


Forecast winds 975 hPA later on tonight (quite strong, up to 100 km/h on the southern side of the little core). Source.


Forecast for tomorrow.

Good night folks from Germany with calm weather.
Or worse, ice. Bears watching.

One of these years, there will be an epic Carolinas snowstorm. It has happened before, most likely it will happen again in some of our lifetimes. Then I will wish I still had my Jeep with the plow blade.

Quoting 60. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, I was just talking to one of my friends I'm not sure how I feel about that. Consensus for a major winter storm across the Southeast 9-10 days out hardly ever happens. I'm sure Mother Nature will find a way to give us all rain.

Cautiously optimistic. Alaskan and West U.S. ridging with arctic highs sliding across the Great Lakes and an active subtropical jet is good news for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, however.
We unfortunately had a lightning death (July, 2014) here on Fort Myers Beach this year.
The city council also voted to not put a lightning detection device at the beach a few months back.

Link



heavy rain!!! 3:26 PM EST on January 22, 2015
Okay, I've gotten a bit overwhelmed by the weird doings of the anti-science senators...have they really blocked EPA scientists from testifying?


Ask da GOOGLE and get back to us with yer results please?

Caution, u may be a while.

Quoting hydrus:
Freeze line deep into Florida..If it happens at all..


We'll have to see. The GFS puts the freezing line down to central Georgia during the same time frame.
12Z GFS shows a temp of 43 in Orlando and 48 in Port Charlotte that morning.

The way the Winter has gone so far, I'm not sure if we'll get any real cold air down into Southern Florida this Winter.
Well, we have all been a waiting for the Opening act.

Here it is, jus in from the Senate Floor today.

Wednesday was a big day for Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK). In the morning, he officially took the gavel as chairman of the Senate's Environment Committee. In the afternoon, he took the Senate floor for a long speech about how human-caused climate change is fake.

Here's the video:


Heavy Snow in Amarillo, Texas

Heavy snow in Amarillo, Texas Wednesday into Thursday. The city has received at least 11 inches.
The car goes round in circles
The road remains the same
For help and consolation
I'll turn it on again
Turn it up
Turn it up

Alone with disconnection
And not a lonesome word
I reach out to the radio
And the clinically disturbed
"Give it up," the man says
Surrender and be saved
He'll drive away your demons
His help is on the way

Turn it up
Oh turn it up!
Laughingstock, here we come. News outlets outside the US are sure to be discussing this.
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:

It would be nice to get some fresh cold air into C & S FL before the high heat & humidity starts arriving in several weeks. Usually mid February is cut off of freezing temps in Orlando. The last few years we have failed to hit the freezing mark.
Hi Scott, it's ok, you keep the cold up their, I'm fine with the warm weather here in South Florida. But please send the rain, as we are getting a little low down here.
I WUnder who the Senate Chairmans biggest Donors are in Oklahoma, surely that can't be found in the googles?
Quoting 36. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro drops a Blizzard over South & North Carolina. Euro delivering a bomb to NC.

The images of day 9 thru 10 would be a snow lovers dream across the south.




Just like the snow storm that as suppose to happen this weekend right?.Give it up that will be wrong too.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The snow crystals that produce these refractions are aloft and temperatures below -30C are common above 30,000 feet at all seasons and above 15,000 feet in winter in most of the midlatitudes. Sundogs aren't all that rare either.
For some reason, they are seen on a regular basis in the high deserts of Nevada. Prospectors and miners arrived by the thousands in the gold and silver boom that started in 1901 in Tonopah. There were at least ten newspaper reports of sundogs in the winters of 1903-1906. One of the main streets in Goldfield is Sundog Avenue. There were about 40,000 people in those two areas by 1906. Now there are about 3,000. Sundogs are still seen but not in the numbers they were in those early years. I assume that's due to the drop in population but sundogs are rarely seen in Reno, which is now a large city. Very strange out on the desert sometimes.
It's likely there will be feedback effects in a warming world that are underestimated, or even currently unknown. Lightning may be one of them. In a warming world, there will be more lightning. This produces ozone and nitrous oxide as the lightning bolt passes through the air, both of which are potent greenhouse gases.

However, the main feedback effect may be an increase in wildfires caused by lightning. These fires release CO2, methane, ozone and nitrous oxide. It's not something that the IPCC includes in its forecasts, so maybe it's a minor effect. But, how many such underestimated positive feedback effects might there be?
Quoting LAbonbon:
Laughingstock, here we come. News outlets outside the US are sure to be discussing this.
Discussing what?
Quoting hydrus:
The low has some work to do if the lower atmosphere is going to get moistened up. It's currently 62 with a dewpoint of 34 over here in SE Alabama. The few radar returns are all virga. The Boys are all hot to trot over this system however, giving me a near 100% chance of rain tonight and tomorrow. I hope it happens and that it's more than half an inch.
Quoting 78. sar2401:

For some reason, they are seen on a regular basis in the high deserts of Nevada. Prospectors and miners arrived by the thousands in the gold and silver boom that started in 1901 in Tonopah. There were at least ten newspaper reports of sundogs in the winters of 1903-1906. One of the main streets in Goldfield is Sundog Avenue. There were about 40,000 people in those two areas by 1906. Now there are about 3,000. Sundogs are still seen but not in the numbers they were in those early years. I assume that's due to the drop in population but sundogs are rarely seen in Reno, which is now a large city. Very strange out on the desert sometimes.

I really liked the article txjac posted, in particular the portion that discussed sun dogs' appearances in history, and how people at the time interpreted the meaning behind them. I read the Wiki page 'Sun dogs', which included some historical references. I thought the history aspect was actually more interesting than the science behind them.


Tampa Bay area
Quoting 80. sar2401:

Discussing what?

Sorry, I was referring to the video Pat posted, regarding Inhofe's remarks on the Senate floor about climate change.
Quoting 79. yonzabam:

It's likely there will be feedback effects in a warming world that are underestimated, or even currently unknown. Lightning may be one of them. In a warming world, there will be more lightning. This produces ozone and nitrous oxide as the lightning bolt passes through the air, both of which are potent greenhouse gases.

However, the main feedback effect may be an increase in wildfires caused by lightning. These fires release CO2, methane, ozone and nitrous oxide. It's not something that the IPCC includes in its forecasts, so maybe it's a minor effect. But, how many such underestimated positive feedback effects might there be?


That's a good point, but to be fair, there may also be underestimated negative feedbacks as well. We'd better hope there are some major ones!
Last thing: While I'm boring you with Italian weather and their current attempt to create a tropical-like system, an Italian weather site just started a photogallery, showing: "The extraordinary beauty of thunderstorms in Florida", lol - and now I'm really gone ...
I will only note that many politicians and tv and radio hosts "play" to their respective audiences (and also get paid for it); who knows what their actual personal positions on many issues really is. I took note of Rush Limbaugh's rhetoric over the years on certain conservative positions yet Elton John was the featured entertainer when he last got married a few years ago.......................... (must have been his new Wife's favorite artist I suppose).

Anyway, I hope that these folks (the politicians) actually take note of the actual science in the coming years when it comes to weather related issues (and continued proper funding of NOAA and NWS as I throw the weather related bone to the Moderators)............... :)
Play?

Really?

LOL.......


Don't think the esteemed Chairman Senator from Oklahoma was "playing" with that 10 minute diatribe of nonsense.

You actually took notes from a RUSH broadcast..?


Me lay down, iz dizzy now.


It has begun...

I'm missing yesterday's weather, where it was 71F at this time...currently it's 49F and damp

90. Patrap
4:30 PM EST on January 22, 2015


Lol. I love to drive and love to take to take road trips around the US. Sometimes, driving in the middle of the boondocks around the SE, you can only get clear radio signals from a few stations.............................. :)
We have a 34 dew pt as well in S C IL, but it's only 34, so 100%, but no precip. N-NW light winds and up to 30.4" Thought we were supposed to be clear by now, but 2nd overcast day. Have taken the mixed precip out of the Sun forecast as high is now supposed to be 45, so now 30% rain chance. Looks like we hang around avg highs for this time of year (40ish) through the 7 day. Lows in upper 20s to 30.

Hope it clears so can get tele on Comet Lovejoy, binocs weren't satisfactory other night, and clouded up by time glass cleared its fog on tele lenses. Near the Pleiades currently.

Quoting 71. Patrap:

Well, we have all been a waiting for the Opening act.

Here it is, jus in from the Senate Floor today.

Wednesday was a big day for Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK). In the morning, he officially took the gavel as chairman of the Senate's Environment Committee. In the afternoon, he took the Senate floor for a long speech about how human-caused climate change is fake.

Here's the video:




Mark Twain said it best......“It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.”
According to this map, Ritchie Blackmore and I have something in common...

Quoting 83. tampabaymatt:


Quoting 95. HaoleboySurfEC:

According to this map, Ritchie Blackmore and I have something in common...




Please explain; I play guitar and RB is one of my influences; saw him twice with Rainbow, once with Purple, and have chosen to skip the Blackmore's Night shows......................But he has a house with Candice in the NE so snow is on the way to his Pad.



light snow on friday night
Wow, I'm dizzy now too Pat. Noticed he left out Climate between 97% & scientists.

Didn't realize there were Silver Mtns in SC, guess you're ref'ing another Rainbow ditty. I'm happy today (prior to #71 view) since announce StL gets a Rush R40 tour date & remaining Dead doing a 3 days of gigs at Soldier Field Independence Day weekend. Believe I'll use discretionary on concerts instead of baseball this summer.
Hello guys what's up.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Sorry, I was referring to the video Pat posted, regarding Inhofe's remarks on the Senate floor about climate change.
Ah, OK. I think we give him credit for more influence than he really has. Most people think he's a crock, at least outside of Oklahoma. He's been the head of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee before and, except for holding ridiculous dog and pony shows about global warming, he accomplished nothing. His coverage in the mainstream media is almost universally negative. He is, however, getting his name in the paper all the time, which is his real goal. Any publicity is good publicity to him, as long as they spell his name right. I wish we would all just learn to ignore him.
Quoting LAbonbon:
It has begun...

I'm missing yesterday's weather, where it was 71F at this time...currently it's 49F and damp

Still 60 with a low dewpoint here. The wind is NW and I'm not seeing any return flow from the Gulf yet. Maybe by the time that yellow stuff gets we'll see some actual rain. BTW, contrary to what the observation is in Eufaula, it's not clear. It's overcast with high and mid-level clouds. Our AWOS station at the airport is on the fritz again. It will probably report snow tomorrow.
Quoting 99. Andrebrooks:

Hello guys what's up.


Nothing much, waiting for my night class to start.
Feb 1-7: Rain to snow, then sunny, cold;

I'm holding you to it, farmer's almanac

/s
104. vis0
Might have been mentioned by another member, but the Good Dr. forgot 1 very important reason lightning death are down, TV /webnet *grnd'D properly). Anything that hypnotizes us from enjoying the outdoors, alright COACH POTATOES rejoice
Gonna see you folks tomorrow and have a safe evening. Looking at the most recent loops, the Gulf low has indeed made an easterly jog and now headed towards the Central Northern Gulf Coast:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2 _floater_2&width=640&height=480&number _of_images_to_display=12



i only see 1 to 3 inches of snow here
107. flsky
The most important thing to remember is to not stand around tsk, tsking him and others whose heads are likewise buried in the sand. A lot of people did just that during this last election and, believe me, it will come back to bite us through 2020 if we don't make our voices and votes count.

Quoting 100. sar2401:

Ah, OK. I think we give him credit for more influence than he really has. Most people think he's a crock, at least outside of Oklahoma. He's been the head of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee before and, except for holding ridiculous dog and pony shows about global warming, he accomplished nothing. His coverage in the mainstream media is almost universally negative. He is, however, getting his name in the paper all the time, which is his real goal. Any publicity is good publicity to him, as long as they spell his name right. I wish we would all just learn to ignore him.
Quoting 102. TimTheWxMan:



Nothing much, waiting for my night class to start.


Out of curiosity, what are you taking? If you're willing to share w/ the class... :)
Nice Pics, Thanks for the Post Bob...
Quoting 101. sar2401:

Still 60 with a low dewpoint here. The wind is NW and I'm not seeing any return flow from the Gulf yet. Maybe by the time that yellow stuff gets we'll see some actual rain. BTW, contrary to what the observation is in Eufaula, it's not clear. It's overcast with high and mid-level clouds. Our AWOS station at the airport is on the fritz again. It will probably report snow tomorrow.

We started the day in the low 50s, went up to 58, and won't see 50 again until midday Saturday. It's raining, but not heavy at this point, just slow and steady. Honestly, though, after this spell of rain the weather looks pretty good through next week. Highs in the 60s from Sunday until the following weekend, and clear.
Quoting LAbonbon:

I really liked the article txjac posted, in particular the portion that discussed sun dogs' appearances in history, and how people at the time interpreted the meaning behind them. I read the Wiki page 'Sun dogs', which included some historical references. I thought the history aspect was actually more interesting than the science behind them.
I can understand why sundogs would be viewed as a miracle or omen. I've only seen one true sundog, and it had both of the false suns with a rainbow lens to the side of each false sun. I was driving west on Highway 50 halfway between Austin and Eureka (NV) just before sunset. The sundog lasted about 15 minutes, and it was impressive enough that me and the other two cars that were on the road pulled over to look at it. If I had no idea what it was and what caused it, I'd probably be wondering what awaited me around the next curve. Now that I think about it, that happened on election night in 1979, when Reagan was running against Carter. It was pretty much a dead heat going into the election. This was long before the days of satellite radio, and you can't get any radio stations on that section of Highway 50 until long after sunset, when you can sometimes get Salt Lake or Reno stations. I think it was about an hour later when I got KSL to come in and found out Reagan was the likely winner. Maybe it was an omen. :-)
Quoting LAbonbon:

We started the day in the low 50s, went up to 58, and won't see 50 again until midday Saturday. It's raining, but not heavy at this point, just slow and steady. Honestly, though, after this spell of rain the weather looks pretty good through next week. Highs in the 60s from Sunday until the following weekend, and clear.
I'm anxiously awaiting that slow, steady rain here. According to the Boys, I'm supposed to get 1.83" by Saturday morning. Not 1.80" or 1.85", but 1.83". Check out the rainfall totals on the map. The Boys must have gotten a precision rainfall prediction computer from somewhere. :-)

A fine mostly sunny day. Yesterday got to 73, 43 with patchy fog this morning and 70 this afternoon. An outside lunch day.

NWS being very aggressive with the expected rainfall for me.





The models all show heavy rain over central GA with much lower amounts here. NWS JAX is way above the models with my forecasted precip. They had a good run with forecasts overshooting all models last fall, but misfired badly when they did it with my last rain event. We'll see!
Big snow for northeast Saturday through the rest of the month, snow totals should climb big time
Quoting 111. sar2401:

I can understand why sundogs would be viewed as a miracle or omen. I've only seen one true sundog, and it had both of the false suns with a rainbow lens to the side of each false sun. I was driving west on Highway 50 halfway between Austin and Eureka (NV) just before sunset. The sundog lasted about 15 minutes, and it was impressive enough that me and the other two cars that were on the road pulled over to look at it. If I had no idea what it was and what caused it, I'd probably be wondering what awaited me around the next curve. Now that I think about it, that happened on election night in 1979, when Reagan was running against Carter. It was pretty much a dead heat going into the election. This was long before the days of satellite radio, and you can't get any radio stations on that section of Highway 50 until long after sunset, when you can sometimes get Salt Lake or Reno stations. I think it was about an hour later when I got KSL to come in and found out Reagan was the likely winner. Maybe it was an omen. :-)


Never seen one, but I'd like to. If I'd seen it I might have been wondering how close I was to Area 51.

And not to nitpick, but don't you mean 1980?



snow and ice on the roads on friday night

Motorists should be on the lookout for slippery travel in the I-64 corridor of Kentucky and I-155 in western Tennessee.
Enough snow could fall to make some roads, mainly elevated surfaces slippery from Memphis, Tennessee to Lexington, Kentucky. There is a chance some wet snow and sleet mix in at the end of the storm around Nashville and Knoxville, Tennessee.
As the storm system starts to move northeastward in Saturday, rain will linger across the Carolinas, especially in the morning. A cold front extending southward from the storm will also keep some showers across the Florida Peninsula.
The rest of the Southeast will get an opportunity to dry out over the weekend as sunshine returns.
These will be just the lingering effects of a storm that will likely bring accumulating snow to portions of the Northeast Saturday and Saturday night.


Accumulating snow is most likely to fall from the mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Kentucky and western Virginia to southern and eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley of New York state and southeastern and central New England. Enough snow is likely to fall to shovel and plow in this area.
Included in the potential swath of accumulating snow is the Interstate-95 corridor from near Washington, D.C., and Baltimore to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Even though rain could mix in over all or part of this zone, roads will be slippery during much of the storm. Airline delays are likely with the potential for cancellations.
Patrap better step it up, Jason's gonna get to 1,000,000 comments first!
Quoting 14. georgevandenberghe:



I've asked this question before on the blog. (so it may be hackneyed )

Since I am a Washington DC football team fan I wonder

What is this word "playoff"? I no understand.


2012, seems they are a Seahawks magnet....
Source:
Quoting 122. DonnieBwkGA:

Patrap better step it up, Jason's gonna get to 1,000,000 comments first!




snow coming in the next 48 hours
Hope you get lots of snow Jason :)
Quoting 122. DonnieBwkGA:

Patrap better step it up, Jason's gonna get to 1,000,000 comments first!



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429

Its da entries, easily..as comments are jus musings.

Save for rolling severe or Landfalls.
Storm Reports
Impressive snowfall rates occurred in New Mexico as well as the Texas Panhandle Wednesday evening as the storm cranked up in intensity. Amarillo experienced snowfall rates as high as 3 inches per hour, and snowfall totals from this single storm have more than tripled the city's season-to-date snowfall total.

Here is a list of notable snowfall totals as of 3 p.m. EST Thursday:

- 16 inches near Edgewood, New Mexico
- 14 inches in Sedillo, New Mexico
- 13 inches in Canyon, Texas
- 13 inches reported near Amarillo, Texas
- 11.5 inches reported near Colorado Springs, Colorado
- 9 inches Dalhart, Texas
- 8 inches in Amarillo, Texas
- 8 inches near Tres Ritos, New Mexico
- 5 inches in Cimarron, New Mexico
- 4 inches near Los Alamos, New Mexico
- 2 inches near Santa Fe, New Mexico
- 2 inches near Denver, Colorado
- 1.1 inches near Albuquerque, New Mexico

The name Iola comes from Greek mythology and is a variant spelling of Iolë, a beautiful woman who Hercules wanted to marry, but could not.
Quoting 118. LAbonbon:



Never seen one, but I'd like to. If I'd seen it I might have been wondering how close I was to Area 51.

And not to nitpick, but don't you mean 1980?




Naaahh. 1979 was when the Bilderburgs decided what it should be :-)
Quoting 79. yonzabam:

It's likely there will be feedback effects in a warming world that are underestimated, or even currently unknown. Lightning may be one of them. In a warming world, there will be more lightning. This produces ozone and nitrous oxide as the lightning bolt passes through the air, both of which are potent greenhouse gases.

However, the main feedback effect may be an increase in wildfires caused by lightning. These fires release CO2, methane, ozone and nitrous oxide. It's not something that the IPCC includes in its forecasts, so maybe it's a minor effect. But, how many such underestimated positive feedback effects might there be?


Nitrous Oxide forms nitric acid in the presence of water and comes down in the rain. It is a significant term in the nitrogen cycle and the lightning created levels are not a pollutant. I don't know much about the chemistry of low level Ozone other than that it is a pollutant for people and a significant damaging threat for U.S. cropland some years.
Iola: Snow Forecast
It's still too early to be confident about how much snow will fall in cities along the East Coast.

Much of this is related to the exact track of the storm and how much cold air will be available for the storm to tap into. You can find out more about why this is the case in the forecast uncertainty section below.

At this time the most likely outcome is a stripe of light to moderate snow from the Smoky Mountains through parts of the I-95 corridor, with the peak timing being Friday night through Saturday night.

The National Weather Service issued a winter storm watch for parts of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island on Thursday afternoon for the chance of heavy snow and reduced visibilities on Saturday.


everyone read this if you live in the northeast about your snowfall
Quoting 118. LAbonbon:



Never seen one, but I'd like to. If I'd seen it I might have been wondering how close I was to Area 51.



Sundogs are not unusual in my part of the world. I clearly remember the most vivid one I ever saw, late on the afternoon of Feb. 18, 2004. That night, we got hit by this.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Nothing much, waiting for my night class to start.
That's good I guess, what class do you take. And how old are you again.


A snow plow makes its way down southbound New Mexico State Road 599 Thursday morning, Jan. 22, 2015, in the Santa Fe,
Because we are both in "Deep Purple." Bad joke I know....

Great guitar player.

Quoting 96. weathermanwannabe:



Please explain; I play guitar and RB is one of my influences; saw him twice with Rainbow, once with Purple, and have chosen to skip the Blackmore's Night shows......................But he has a house with Candice in the NE so snow is on the way to his Pad.
Quoting 121. Patrap:


Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has died, state television announced early Friday. He was 90.



Good Riddance, only problem is the successors aren't really any more progressive. All same bloodline.
Quoting 137. VAbeachhurricanes:



Good Riddance, only problem is the successors aren't really any more progressive. All same bloodline.
Umm not all leaders from that part of the world are bad...

Just some of his accomplishments while he was in office or in this case, King.

"In 2005, King Abdullah implemented a government scholarship program to send young Saudi men and women to study abroad in different universities around the world for undergraduate and postgraduate studies. The program offered funds for tuition and living expenses up to four years. It is estimated that more than 70,000 students studied abroad in more than 25 countries. United States, England, and Australia are the top three destinations mostly aimed for by the young Saudi students."

"He realized a top-to-bottom restructuring of the country's courts to introduce, among other things, review of judicial decisions and more professional training for Shari'a judges. He developed a new investment promotion agency to overhaul the once-convoluted process of starting a business in Saudi Arabia. He created a regulatory body for capital markets. He has promoted the construction of the King Abdullah University for Science and Technology (the country's new flagship and controversially co-ed institution for advanced scientific research). He invested in educating the workforce for future jobs. The Saudi government is also encouraging the development of non-hydrocarbon sectors in which the Kingdom has a comparative advantage, including mining, solar energy, and religious tourism. The Kingdom's 2010 budget reflected these priorities—about 25 percent was devoted to education alone—and amounts to a significant economic stimulus package."

"The response of his administration to homegrown terrorism was a series of crackdowns including raids by security forces, arrests, torture and public beheadings.[35] He vowed to fight terrorist ideologies within the country. He made the protection of Saudi Arabia's critical infrastructure a top security priority.[36]

"His strategy against terrorism has been two-pronged: he attacked the roots of the extremism that fed Al-Qaida through education and judicial reforms to weaken the influence of the most reactionary elements of Saudi Arabia's religious establishment. He is also promoting economic diversification."

Link
Quoting 124. Gearsts:


Looks like La Nina, but keep this between me and you, don't tell Scott.
Quoting 139. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Umm not all leaders from that part of the world are bad...

Just some of his accomplishments while he was in office or in this case, King.

"In 2005, King Abdullah implemented a government scholarship program to send young Saudi men and women to study abroad in different universities around the world for undergraduate and postgraduate studies. The program offered funds for tuition and living expenses up to four years. It is estimated that more than 70,000 students studied abroad in more than 25 countries. United States, England, and Australia are the top three destinations mostly aimed for by the young Saudi students."

"He realized a top-to-bottom restructuring of the country's courts to introduce, among other things, review of judicial decisions and more professional training for Shari'a judges. He developed a new investment promotion agency to overhaul the once-convoluted process of starting a business in Saudi Arabia. He created a regulatory body for capital markets. He has promoted the construction of the King Abdullah University for Science and Technology (the country's new flagship and controversially co-ed institution for advanced scientific research). He invested in educating the workforce for future jobs. The Saudi government is also encouraging the development of non-hydrocarbon sectors in which the Kingdom has a comparative advantage, including mining, solar energy, and religious tourism. The Kingdom's 2010 budget reflected these priorities—about 25 percent was devoted to education alone—and amounts to a significant economic stimulus package."

"The response of his administration to homegrown terrorism was a series of crackdowns including raids by security forces, arrests, torture and public beheadings.[35] He vowed to fight terrorist ideologies within the country. He made the protection of Saudi Arabia's critical infrastructure a top security priority.[36]

"His strategy against terrorism has been two-pronged: he attacked the roots of the extremism that fed Al-Qaida through education and judicial reforms to weaken the influence of the most reactionary elements of Saudi Arabia's religious establishment. He is also promoting economic diversification."

Link


And yet this one was.

"Human rights in Saudi Arabia are intended to be based on Hanbali Islamic religious laws under absolute rule of the Saudi royal family.[1]

The authoritarian regime ruling Saudi Arabia has one of the worst human rights records in the world, consistently ranking among the "worst of the worst" in Freedom House's annual survey of political and civil rights.[2]"

Just read up on Human Rights abuses under his rule.
Human Rights in Saudi Arabia
Nearby Weather Stations
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
31.6 F
DopplerDon.com
30.7 F
Rock Hill
31.0 F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
35.6 F
Foxon
30.7 F
East Haven Town Beach
32.6 F
east haven morgan point
33.3 F


Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 3:27 PM EST on January 22, 2015
...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter Storm Watch...which is in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* Locations...northern New Haven...northern Middlesex...and northern New London.

* Hazard types...snow and ice.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 5 to 7 inches...along with around a tenth of an inch of ice.

* Winds...north 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Saturday afternoon into evening.

* Temperatures...in the lower 30s.

* Visibilities...1/2 mile or less at times Saturday morning into afternoon.

* Timing...snow begins early Saturday morning. The heaviest snow...likely mixed with sleet and freezing rain...will be Saturday morning through afternoon. Snow tapers off in the evening.

* Impacts...difficult travel possible due to reduced visibilities and significant snow accumulations. The heavy wet snow could bring down some large branches and cause scattered power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Quoting 130. DonnieBwkGA:

This dude has 2,400 more entries than you Patrap ;) Better step it up ;)


Only Dr. Masters has the actual post record with this being #2900, and I've been fortunate enough to actually been credited for sources or other in a tiny fraction of those.


I haven't written a decent wu blog in a year as my time here is in between actual comedy writing and other things I do for my paying overlords.

We all gotta eat
Very interesting blog.
Thanks!
Hey, stay classy....



...Orleans Parish

Wind Advisory

Statement as of 7:32 PM CST on January 22, 2015

...Wind Advisory in effect until midnight CST tonight...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Wind Advisory...which is in effect until midnight CST tonight.

* Timing...this evening through midnight.

* Winds...north 20 to 25 mph with frequent gusts 35 to 40 mph.

* Duration...3 to 5 hours.

* Impacts...driving hazard for high profile vehicles on elevated and open exposure areas. Light objects can be blown around. Small limbs and branches may fall from weakened trees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 26 to 39 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

24/rr
The Low is swinging in Fast and blowing here now..


Quoting 134. Andrebrooks:

That's good I guess, what class do you take. And how old are you again.


It's an interdisciplinary study class (it's about critiquing media) and I'm 20. I'm in my junior year of college. Those kinds of classes are ones you take outside your major (in this case, mine's geography).
Quoting 137. VAbeachhurricanes:



Good Riddance, only problem is the successors aren't really any more progressive. All same bloodline.


King Abdullah died? About time! Unfortunately in Saudi Arabia's case it'll be "meet the new boss, same as the old boss". SA's human rights record sucks like an EF5 tornado, women aren't allowed to drive, no alcohol, no churches, they still do floggings (recently a saudi blogger was sentenced to 1000 lashes), SA has an absolute monarchy, stuff like that.
Quoting 144. Patrap:



Only Dr. Masters has the actual post record with this being #2900, and I've been fortunate enough to actually been credited for sources or other in a tiny fraction of those.


I haven't written a decent wu blog in a year as my time here is in between actual comedy writing and other things I do for my paying overlords.

We all gotta eat



You're a comedy writer? Got any good jokes?
Quoting 151. TimTheWxMan:




You're a comedy writer? Got any good jokes?


"I'm not a Scientist"
-Republican

"I'm not a Republican"
-Scientist
..anything else befo the Big Bang Theory starts on CBS ?

: )
Quoting 108. LAbonbon:



Out of curiosity, what are you taking? If you're willing to share w/ the class... :)


It's an interdisciplinary studies class that has nothing to do with geography whatsoever (about critiquing media). Besides that and a health class, i'm taking a raster GIS class, an urban geography class (that focuses a lot about sustainability, and a regional geography class about North America.

72.1F today, still windy....
Quoting 154. Patrap:

..anything else befo the Big Bang Theory starts on CBS ?



*knock knock knock* Penny
*knock knock knock* Penny
*knock knock knock* Penny
Quoting 154. Patrap:

..anything else befo the Big Bang Theory starts on CBS ?
I thought it ended 4.5 billion years ago?
FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY



storm coming together in the south and moving up the coast soon
Quoting 155. TimTheWxMan:



It's an interdisciplinary studies class that has nothing to do with geography whatsoever (about critiquing media). Besides that and a health class, i'm taking a raster GIS class, an urban geography class (that focuses a lot about sustainability, and a regional geography class about North America.


Thanks for sharing...I'm always interested in what people are studying. Sounds like a pretty good mix.
Quoting 159. Tornado6042008X:

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY



As Patrap would say, neaux!
Quoting 162. LAbonbon:



Thanks for sharing...I'm always interested in what people are studying. Sounds like a pretty good mix.


Yeah, my major's geography and my minor's GIS.
0Z WRF model is showing 2" to 4" of rain just north of Tampa across Citrus County extending over Flagler County. Very interesting as I was just talking about this set up a few nights ago how the heaviest rain and strongest storms may actually focus across C & N FL. Tampa proper though WRF has .5" to 2" depending on where the heaviest storms begin to train in off the Gulf late tomorrow into tomorrow night.

HRRR model looks interesting as well infact it may be raining around Tampa daybreak tomorrow with what looks like a warm front moving NE off the SE Gulf.

Quoting 159. Tornado6042008X:

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY



You can see what appears to be a warm front SW of FL on this IR image.

Quoting 158. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I thought it ended 4.5 billion years ago?


That was the beginning, or when I urged Grothar to plug in and turn on the God Dell PC actually.......

Remember, we now find the in the equations that quantify the actual fabric of the Universe, line code that is exactly like we find in web browser search engines.

Try that on for a snapple half hour.

Published on Mar 21, 2012
"Doubly-even self-dual linear binary error-correcting block code," first invented by Claude Shannon in the 1940's, has been discovered embedded WITHIN the equations of superstring theory!

Why does nature have this? What errors does it need to correct? What is an 'error' for nature? More importantly what is the explanation for this freakish discovery? Your guess is as good as mine.




Quoting 158. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I thought it ended 4.5 billion years ago?


Last I heard it was 13 or 14 billion yrs...

Glad I saw your name tonight, Caleb. I saw this a while back on NOAA's site, and thought of you, but forgot to post it.

NOAA's Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship Program

One of the requirements - "be currently enrolled or accepted as a full-time 2nd year student in a four-year academic program or as a full-time 3rd year student in a five-year undergraduate program at an accredited college or university or university within the United States or U.S. territories"

That applies to you, doesn't it?

Anyway, maybe these scholarships are commonly known amongst met students, but I figured it couldn't hurt to mention it. Oh, and the deadline to apply is January 30th.
Quoting 169. LAbonbon:


Last I heard it was 13 or 14 billion yrs...

Glad I saw your name tonight, Caleb. I saw this a while back on NOAA's site, and thought of you, but forgot to post it.

NOAA's Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship Program

One of the requirements - "be currently enrolled or accepted as a full-time 2nd year student in a four-year academic program or as a full-time 3rd year student in a five-year undergraduate program at an accredited college or university or university within the United States or U.S. territories"

That applies to you, doesn't it?

Anyway, maybe these scholarships are commonly known amongst met students, but I figured it couldn't hurt to mention it. Oh, and the deadline to apply is January 30th.


How much rain by you so far as I see you pat have been getting a lot of heavy rain and strong winds?
Reference:
How Old is the Universe?
By Nola Taylor Redd, SPACE.com Contributor |




WMAP cosmic microwave fluctuations over the full sky using five years of data. The colors represent tiny temperature fluctuations of the remnant glow from the infant universe:AKA BIG BANG: red regions are warmer and blue are cooler.
Amazing how little you all remember about the "Big Bang". I was sleeping at the time.
LOL, Earth is the one that is 4.5 billion years old. When I posted that then I realized it. I intended it to be a sarcastic response to Pat's post # 154.
Anyone getting a WSI sign on message? Everytime I open this site, it comes up requesting a password?
Quoting 172. Grothar:

Amazing how little you all remember about the "Big Bang". I was sleeping at the time.


....actually you were sleep walking near the Convent..

: P
Quoting 175. Grothar:

Anyone getting a WSI sign on message? Everytime I open this site, it comes up requesting a password?


Not on my end, but I have a no adds thingee.

Quoting 175. Grothar:
Anyone getting a WSI sign on message? Everytime I open this site, it comes up requesting a password?


I am. I had to check my firewall as i thought something was wrong.
Caleb, we can't see those images, they require a WSI account.
Quoting 175. Grothar:

Anyone getting a WSI sign on message? Everytime I open this site, it comes up requesting a password?


Yup, me too and where is your Avatar tonight?
Quoting 179. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We can't see those images, they require a WSI account.


Hi TA13, 12Z Euro delivered you a present.
Quoting 169. LAbonbon:



Last I heard it was 13 or 14 billion yrs...

Glad I saw your name tonight, Caleb. I saw this a while back on NOAA's site, and thought of you, but forgot to post it.

NOAA's Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship Program

One of the requirements - "be currently enrolled or accepted as a full-time 2nd year student in a four-year academic program or as a full-time 3rd year student in a five-year undergraduate program at an accredited college or university or university within the United States or U.S. territories"

That applies to you, doesn't it?

Anyway, maybe these scholarships are commonly known amongst met students, but I figured it couldn't hurt to mention it. Oh, and the deadline to apply is January 30th.
Thank You for sharing the scholarship link Bonnie. Yes, I know about the Hollings Scholarship. I have been searching hard for scholarships and even put in for some, but no luck as of yet.
Quoting 175. Grothar:

Anyone getting a WSI sign on message? Everytime I open this site, it comes up requesting a password?


Yeah, and it's annoying as hell. Whatever comment caused it should be removed so that the WSI popup goes away.
Quoting 180. PedleyCA:



Yup, me too and where is your Avatar tonight?


One of them images or links is prompting the WSI prompt on sign on. Happened befo. Try ignoreing the post and see if it re occurs, it shouldnt.
Refresh now I removed the WSI images. Did not realize it would not allow you to view the content. Perhaps I can save it and upload to TinyPic?
Quoting 169. LAbonbon:



Last I heard it was 13 or 14 billion yrs...

Glad I saw your name tonight, Caleb. I saw this a while back on NOAA's site, and thought of you, but forgot to post it.

NOAA's Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship Program

One of the requirements - "be currently enrolled or accepted as a full-time 2nd year student in a four-year academic program or as a full-time 3rd year student in a five-year undergraduate program at an accredited college or university or university within the United States or U.S. territories"

That applies to you, doesn't it?

Anyway, maybe these scholarships are commonly known amongst met students, but I figured it couldn't hurt to mention it. Oh, and the deadline to apply is January 30th.


Aw shoot, I'm a junior at a 4 year undergrad so I wouldn't be able to apply since it says you have to be in your 2nd year in a 4 year undergrad program and I'm in my 3rd. :/


Edit: this is my 666th comment. :O
Quoting 177. Patrap:



Not on my end, but I have a no adds thingee.




I don't have Adblock, and I didn't get the pw request. No issue here. Wonder why.
CFSv2 is tending more neutral for this summer and as a result has a very ominous sign for the SE US with above average precip extending from the MDR to FL for its September outlook. As someone said it seems the years ending in 5 has been trouble for the US.

Here's 1985


Opal 1995


Katrina
Well Katrina needs its own video Link
I knew it was a bit breezy - had to go out in the dark and the rain because I didn't secure some stuff that was under the carport...and it started moving around a bit :/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
854 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

...LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND HIGH WIND GUSTS MOVING EAST AFFECTING
AMITE COUNTY...ASCENSION PARISH...WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH...ST.
HELENA PARISH...EAST FELICIANA PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE
PARISH...LIVINGSTON PARISH...IBERVILLE PARISH...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA
PARISH...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...PIKE COUNTY...WASHINGTON
PARISH...

AT 852 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF CLINTON TO 5 MILES SOUTH
OF PORT ALLEN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FELPS...GARDERE AND BATON ROUGE BY 900 PM...
WESTMINSTER...PRIDE...OAK HILLS PLACE AND GREENWELL SPRING BY 905
PM...
WATSON BY 910 PM...
DENHAM SPRINGS BY 915 PM...
DARLINGTON BY 920 PM...

HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE WILL ALSO RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITY ALONG AREA ROADWAYS IN AND AROUND THE GREATER BATON ROUGE
AREA. DRIVERS TRAVELING THROUGH THE IMPACTED AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON LOW LYING
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SQUALL IS WIND GUSTS 35 TO 45
MPH
...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.
Quoting 175. Grothar:

Anyone getting a WSI sign on message? Everytime I open this site, it comes up requesting a password?
Oh so it's NOT just me. Thank goodness.
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 is tending more neutral for thismer and as a result has a very ominous sign for the SE US with above average precip extending from the MDR to FL for its September outlook. As some said it seems the year ending in 5 has been trouble for the US.

Here's 1985


Opal 1995

Katrina 2005, Rita, & Wilma

Betsy 1965.
1945 Homestead Hurricane.
1935 Labor Day Hurricane
Eloise 1975

Maybe we'll end up with a season like 1925.

Quoting 172. Grothar:

Amazing how little you all remember about the "Big Bang". I was sleeping at the time.


I'm surprised it didn't wake you, I heard it was a doozy.
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 is tending more neutral for thismer and as a result has a very ominous sign for the SE US with above average precip extending from the MDR to FL for its September outlook. As some said it seems the year ending in 5 has been trouble for the US.

Here's 1985


Opal 1995

Katrina 2005, Rita, & Wilma


Let's be honest though: it's not actually "very ominous", because it isn't really a credible sign, eight months ahead of the actual weather conditions. Given the absolute busted flush that has been El Nino predictions in a similar time frame for several years now, it's high time we remembered the limitations of forecasts with our current data; which is two weeks for a broad pattern forecast in a region of the mid-latitudes, if you're lucky.
Quoting 170. StormTrackerScott:



How much rain by you so far as I see you pat have been getting a lot of heavy rain and strong winds?


I don't have a rain gauge (I know, the sacrilege!), but the official total at the airport in BTR as of 1.5 hours ago was 1.06", but it's been raining pretty steady. Not a heavy rain, though. Some of the local PWSs are showing rain rates of 0.24 to 0.38 in/hr.

Yeah, windy, just had to go chase down some cardboard boxes. I knew I should have put them up. Not a steady wind, though, and it's died down. Based on the NWS's Special Statement, it's passed here by now.
Quoting 191. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Betsy 1965.
1945 Homestead Hurricane.
1935 Labor Day Hurricane
Eloise 1975

Maybe we'll end up with a season like 1925.



Going to be a interesting few months ahead as we should begin to see more definite signs on how active this hurricane season will be or not. A lot hinges on Enso and if we go to El-Nino this summer or stay neutral. I will say CFSv2 is trending neutral.
Quoting 187. LAbonbon:



I don't have Adblock, and I didn't get the pw request. No issue here. Wonder why.


Sorry, I meant No-Adds Membership thru 2019.


Quoting 185. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Refresh now I removed the WSI images. Did not realize it would not allow you to view the content. Perhaps I can save it and upload to TinyPic?


AHA!! So it was you :):)
Quoting 178. StormTrackerScott:



I am. I had to check my firewall as i thought something was wrong.


I checked my firewall, too. But the fireplace hasn't been on in a long time.
MOORE, Okla. —Tonight south Moore residents can rest a little easier knowing the city has a plan to protect them.

The city is planning to build a protective wall along I-35, which will provide protection to those who live between South 4th and South 19th streets.

Moore city officials said the wall will shield residents as much as it can from daily debris, noise and strong winds during a tornado or thunderstorm.

Officials are holding a meeting to get feedback from the community. They want to know what the residents think the wall should look like.

The input will be compiled into a list of options so residents can vote and have the final say on the end results.

KOCO talked to Tod Thornton, who has lived in south Moore for three years now. He remember how much debris flew into his backyard damaging his home.

“We had signs from the Warren Theater that blew into our backyard, piled up against our house and got into the kitchen.”

He said the wall will be a welcome sight in his neck of the woods.

“We love it. We are really excited. I think it’s going to be a really good addition to the community.”

Elizabeth Jones, director of community development, said they have $2 million to $3 million dollars to make it happen.

The details on when construction on the wall will begin and when it will be completed are still being worked out.

“The project has to be done no later than 2019. The project will probably start at anywhere between 12-18 months from now. Residents will start to see a major undertaking,” Jones said.

If you have an idea for the wall or want to hear ideas from other residents, the meeting starts at 6:30 Thursday evening at the Moore City Hall in the council chambers.

Link

...sigh
Hey Pat do you still have the image of the eyewall of Elena in 85 as it was near you?
Quoting 196. Patrap:



Sorry, I meant No-Adds Membership thru 2019.





I don't have that either....usually when something trips the blog up, it affects me as well. Not this time, though.

Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:



Hi TA13, 12Z Euro delivered you a present.

Yeah, I know (see posts 57/60).
Quoting 197. Grothar:



AHA!! So it was you :):)
:D:D what happened to your lovely sunset avatar?
It's always great blogging in here with you nice folks.
My antivirus popped up a verification request from WSI a few minutes ago, while I was on another site. I took it to be a "phishing" attack of some kind and deleted it. I have ad blocker softwear and am no longer a paying member here. I don't see anything different in content or graphics that I have not seen for months. Suspect it is part of the WU upgraded website.
Hmmm, no like a da analogs there guys.

Betsy, I was 5.5, that was 6 hours of a Cat 3 eyewall

20 years later, cat 3 Elena 6 hours there as well.

And 20 year later, K and well..9 Hours of Cat 3.

21 Eyewall Hours from 3 Majors 20 to 40 years apart.
It's my fault Catherdr I was trying to upload some model runs from WSI in which you must log in to view those.
Quoting 201. StormTrackerScott:

Hey Pat do you still have the image of the eyewall of Elena in 85 as it was near you?


I have a nice video of it..wait one
Hurricane Elena (Eye) - Biloxi, Mississippi - September 2, 1985

I was Jus West of here near the SeaBee Base on Pass Road...in Long Beach.






One thing folks will remember in that area as well was the howling moan of Elena's backside approaching..then Boom, right back into Cat 2-3 Conditions within seconds when it hit again,,hard.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Good Riddance, only problem is the successors aren't really any more progressive. All same bloodline.


Check out comment #423 on my blog.
Due to inaction on Climate Change, the Countdown Doomsday clock has been moved forward to 3 minutes to Midnight.



G'night.
Quoting 204. GTstormChaserCaleb:

:D:D what happened to your lovely sunset avatar?


It's night time. Sun has gone down. How you been, Caleb?
Quoting 199. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

*** Millions of gallons of saltwater leak into North Dakota creek


3 million gallons into a creek. No mention of NORM in the article. Anyone know how much NORM is typically or potentially in the wastewater from fracking?

Looking for more info, I found a similar article on Fox. No mention of NORM there either, but it seemed more 'hard hitting' than the News Daily piece. From the Fox article:

"North Dakota has suffered scores of saltwater spills since the state's oil boom began in earnest in 2006.

A network of saltwater pipelines extends to hundreds of disposal wells in the western part of the state, where the briny water is pumped underground for permanent storage. Legislation to mandate flow meters and cutoff switches on saltwater pipelines was overwhelmingly rejected in the Legislature in 2013."

From the Fox article it appears that landowners are getting upset with the spills that are occurring, and are looking to hold companies more accountable via penalties.
Quoting 213. Patrap:

Due to inaction on Climate Change, the Countdown Doomsday clock has been moved forward to 3 minutes to Midnight.



G'night.


Wasn't the closest 11:58 when the Americans and Soviets tested nuclear weapons within months of each other?
Quoting LAbonbon:


Never seen one, but I'd like to. If I'd seen it I might have been wondering how close I was to Area 51.

And not to nitpick, but don't you mean 1980?

It was so long ago, Bonnie, you can't expect to actually remember the correct year. :-) Yes, it was 1980.

Still waiting for my first drop of rain. I don't think I've ever seen so much green on the radar that's either virga or doesn't exist at all. Ever since WU "enhanced the radar, it seems like the composite view is always showing more precipitation than really exists. The vertically Integrated Liquid view seems to give a much more realistic picture. It is raining in Montgomery so I guess it will get here eventually, but I still have a temperature of 56 with a dewpoint of 37, so the bottom level of the atmosphere is still pretty dry. The wind is still out of the NW with an average speed of only 4 mph and a peak gust of 12 mph. Not what I expect to see from an approaching Gulf low.
TimTheWxMan, the Doomsday Clock was also set at 3 minutes in 1984. We're tied for the closest to midnight.
Quoting 211. Patrap:

One thing folks will remember in that area as well was the howling moan of Elena's backside approaching..then Boom, right back into Cat 2-3 Conditions within seconds when it hit again,,hard.


It sounds familiar to when Josh Morgerman was in Hurricane Odile when the first rush of wind on the backside of the storm broke a huge window and turned the lobby into a wind tunnel for a few hours.
For Sar...getting closer :)

Quoting 218. BaltimoreBrian:

TimTheWxMan, the Doomsday Clock was also set at 3 minutes in 1984. We're tied for the closest to midnight.



DOOOOOM! When the next category 5 hits Florida, then it'll be midnight. :O)
Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

MOORE, Okla. —Tonight south Moore residents can rest a little easier knowing the city has a plan to protect them.

The city is planning to build a protective wall along I-35, which will provide protection to those who live between South 4th and South 19th streets.

Moore city officials said the wall will shield residents as much as it can from daily debris, noise and strong winds during a tornado or thunderstorm.

Officials are holding a meeting to get feedback from the community. They want to know what the residents think the wall should look like.

The input will be compiled into a list of options so residents can vote and have the final say on the end results.

KOCO talked to Tod Thornton, who has lived in south Moore for three years now. He remember how much debris flew into his backyard damaging his home.

“We had signs from the Warren Theater that blew into our backyard, piled up against our house and got into the kitchen.”

He said the wall will be a welcome sight in his neck of the woods.

“We love it. We are really excited. I think it’s going to be a really good addition to the community.”

Elizabeth Jones, director of community development, said they have $2 million to $3 million dollars to make it happen.

The details on when construction on the wall will begin and when it will be completed are still being worked out.

“The project has to be done no later than 2019. The project will probably start at anywhere between 12-18 months from now. Residents will start to see a major undertaking,” Jones said.

If you have an idea for the wall or want to hear ideas from other residents, the meeting starts at 6:30 Thursday evening at the Moore City Hall in the council chambers.

Link

...sigh


Please tell me thats fake... a tornado wall?
Quoting 216. TimTheWxMan:



Wasn't the closest 11:58 when the Americans and Soviets tested nuclear weapons within months of each other?


1984...don't recall the specifics of the dysfunction that was the US/USSR nuclear chessmatch...but I do remember the horrors of the movie Threads that came out that year. Scared the bejesus out of me...left quite the impact. Came on the heels of 'The Day After'...I think my generation was traumatized about the potential nuclear threat.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's always great blogging in here with you nice folks.
Thank you Caleb.
Quoting 223. LAbonbon:



1984...don't recall the specifics of the dysfunction that was the US/USSR nuclear chessmatch...but I do remember the horrors of the movie Threads that came out that year. Scared the bejesus out of me...left quite the impact. Came on the heels of 'The Day After'...I think my generation was traumatized about the potential nuclear threat.


Grothar,myself and others were still on active duty fighting the Cold War.

Yute's

Quoting TimTheWxMan:


It's an interdisciplinary study class (it's about critiquing media) and I'm 20. I'm in my junior year of college. Those kinds of classes are ones you take outside your major (in this case, mine's geography).
Oh ok, well I hope the best for you.
Quoting 217. sar2401:

It was so long ago, Bonnie, you can't expect to actually remember the correct year. :-) Yes, it was 1980.

Still waiting for my first drop of rain. I don't think I've ever seen so much green on the radar that's either virga or doesn't exist at all. Ever since WU "enhanced the radar, it seems like the composite view is always showing more precipitation than really exists. The vertically Integrated Liquid view seems to give a much more realistic picture. It is raining in Montgomery so I guess it will get here eventually, but I still have a temperature of 56 with a dewpoint of 37, so the bottom level of the atmosphere is still pretty dry. The wind is still out of the NW with an average speed of only 4 mph and a peak gust of 12 mph. Not what I expect to see from an approaching Gulf low.

Official total at BTR airport is 1.93" as of half an hour ago. It's definitely eased up, still a bit windy though.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Wasn't the closest 11:58 when the Americans and Soviets tested nuclear weapons within months of each other?
Yeah, 1953, when both the US and Soviets were doing air burst testing of some really big thermonuclear weapons within 9 months of each other. I've never been overly impressed by the whole doomsday clock thing. The clock gets moved at odd periods that don't seem to reflect what's actually happening with the world. According to Wiki, "Science and Security Board meets twice annually to discuss global events in a deliberative manner. The closest nuclear war threat, the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, reached crisis, climax, and resolution before the Clock could be set to reflect that possible doomsday.". Meeting twice a year was plenty of time to adjust the clock from the Cuban missile crisis, which really was the closest to WWIII we've been in my lifetime. The clock was adjusted three seconds ahead in the past three years partly because of because of climate change when the clock was adjusted back one second in 2010 due to supposed progress on climate change, a year after the Copenhagen conference on climate change. A year should have been enough time to realize that there was really no binding agreement that came out of that conference. All I can say is that anyone who thinks we are at the same point of danger of global annihilation as we were in 1949 just hasn't lived long enough.
Quoting 222. VAbeachhurricanes:



Please tell me thats fake... a tornado wall?


Protects from 'daily debris' which could be helpful with all the garbage people toss out their vehicles.
For us Submariner Below Sea Level common folk, the composite Radar has been right on the gauge tonight.

We may have not gotten snow or frozen precipitation - as I knew we wouldn't, but I'm pretty impressed with how gusty the winds are for a system without a lot of deep convection. I assume this is due to a dry lower troposphere allowing downdrafts to penetrate the surface in the form of strong wind gusts.
Quoting 232. KoritheMan:

We may have not gotten snow or frozen precipitation - as I knew we wouldn't, but I'm pretty impressed with how gusty the winds are for a system without a lot of deep convection. I assume this is due to a dry lower troposphere allowing downdrafts to penetrate the surface in the form of strong wind gusts.


Almost neutercane like in a way.



2015 Atlantic hurricane season

First system formed Season Not Started
Last system dissipated Season Not Started
Strongest storm %u2013
Total fatalities Unknown
Total damage Unknown

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2015 season
Source Date Named Hurricanes Major Ref
Average (198120132010) 12.1 6.4 2.7 [1]
Record high activity 28 15 7 [2]
Record low activity 4 2 0% [2]

Actual activity
0 0 0
* June November only
Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Ana (unused)
Bill (unused)
Claudette (unused)
Danny (unused)
Erika (unused)
Fred (unused)
Grace (unused)
Henri (unused)
Ida (unused)
Joaquin (unused)
Kate (unused)
Larry (unused)
Mindy (unused)
Nicholas (unused)
Odette (unused)
Peter (unused)
Rose (unused)
Sam (unused)
Teresa (unused)
Victor (unused)
Wanda (unused)

2015 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics
Storm
name Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity

Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)

Min.
press.
(mbar) Areas affected Damage
(millions USD) Deaths
Season Aggregates
0 cyclones Season not started 0 (0) 0 0 0
Quoting LAbonbon:


1984...don't recall the specifics of the dysfunction that was the US/USSR nuclear chessmatch...but I do remember the horrors of the movie Threads that came out that year. Scared the bejesus out of me...left quite the impact. Came on the heels of 'The Day After'...I think my generation was traumatized about the potential nuclear threat.
Try being a 16 year old high school sophomore in October of 1962 listening to Kennedy's speech on TV saying we were going to war if the Soviets didn't remove their offensive missiles from Cuba. I was pretty sure I wasn't going to make it to 17. I thought if I was going to die anyway, I might as well enjoy myself. I went out to see if I could scare up some beer and then convince my girlfriend we should "do it" since we'd never have another chance. Unfortunately for me, neither plan worked, but at least we didn't destroy the world. :-0
Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

MOORE, Okla. —Tonight south Moore residents can rest a little easier knowing the city has a plan to protect them.

The city is planning to build a protective wall along I-35, which will provide protection to those who live between South 4th and South 19th streets.

Moore city officials said the wall will shield residents as much as it can from daily debris, noise and strong winds during a tornado or thunderstorm.

Officials are holding a meeting to get feedback from the community. They want to know what the residents think the wall should look like.

The input will be compiled into a list of options so residents can vote and have the final say on the end results.

KOCO talked to Tod Thornton, who has lived in south Moore for three years now. He remember how much debris flew into his backyard damaging his home.

“We had signs from the Warren Theater that blew into our backyard, piled up against our house and got into the kitchen.”

He said the wall will be a welcome sight in his neck of the woods.

“We love it. We are really excited. I think it’s going to be a really good addition to the community.”

Elizabeth Jones, director of community development, said they have $2 million to $3 million dollars to make it happen.

The details on when construction on the wall will begin and when it will be completed are still being worked out.

“The project has to be done no later than 2019. The project will probably start at anywhere between 12-18 months from now. Residents will start to see a major undertaking,” Jones said.

If you have an idea for the wall or want to hear ideas from other residents, the meeting starts at 6:30 Thursday evening at the Moore City Hall in the council chambers.

Link

...sigh



That's up there with those 3 walls they wanted to build in the plains to block the air masses from colliding in order to stop tornadoes from forming.
Quoting 226. Andrebrooks:

Oh ok, well I hope the best for you.


Thanks Andre.
Quoting 236. opal92nwf:

2015 Atlantic hurricane season

First system formed Season Not Started
Last system dissipated Season Not Started
Strongest storm %u2013
Total fatalities Unknown
Total damage Unknown

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2015 season
Source Date Named Hurricanes Major Ref
Average (198120132010) 12.1 6.4 2.7 [1]
Record high activity 28 15 7 [2]
Record low activity 4 2 0% [2]

Actual activity
0 0 0
* June November only
Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Ana (unused)
Bill (unused)
Claudette (unused)
Danny (unused)
Erika (unused)
Fred (unused)
Grace (unused)
Henri (unused)
Ida (unused)
Joaquin (unused)
Kate (unused)
Larry (unused)
Mindy (unused)
Nicholas (unused)
Odette (unused)
Peter (unused)
Rose (unused)
Sam (unused)
Teresa (unused)
Victor (unused)
Wanda (unused)

2015 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics
Storm
name Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity

Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)

Min.
press.
(mbar) Areas affected Damage
(millions USD) Deaths
Season Aggregates
0 cyclones Season not started 0 (0) 0 0 0


No name really sticks out for me this year. Except Victor... he's the victor.
Knew it was late when I saw Kori posting, but didn't realize how late. I need my beauty sleep...

Good night, all.

And Sar, I hope you get some rain (all 1.81" of it).
Quoting 228. sar2401:

Yeah, 1953, when both the US and Soviets were doing air burst testing of some really big thermonuclear weapons within 9 months of each other. I've never been overly impressed by the whole doomsday clock thing. The clock gets moved at odd periods that don't seem to reflect what's actually happening with the world. According to Wiki, "Science and Security Board meets twice annually to discuss global events in a deliberative manner. The closest nuclear war threat, the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, reached crisis, climax, and resolution before the Clock could be set to reflect that possible doomsday.". Meeting twice a year was plenty of time to adjust the clock from the Cuban missile crisis, which really was the closest to WWIII we've been in my lifetime. The clock was adjusted three seconds ahead in the past three years partly because of because of climate change when the clock was adjusted back one second in 2010 due to supposed progress on climate change, a year after the Copenhagen conference on climate change. A year should have been enough time to realize that there was really no binding agreement that came out of that conference. All I can say is that anyone who thinks we are at the same point of danger of global annihilation as we were in 1949 just hasn't lived long enough.


Yeah, considering it was really close to world war III. As a matter of fact, the U.S. had its own missiles in Turkey during the Cuban missile crisis. Difference was, the Soviet missiles were 90 miles offshore.
Quoting KoritheMan:
We may have not gotten snow or frozen precipitation - as I knew we wouldn't, but I'm pretty impressed with how gusty the winds are for a system without a lot of deep convection. I assume this is due to a dry lower troposphere allowing downdrafts to penetrate the surface in the form of strong wind gusts.
Kind of a close call over here, with BMX predicting rain and snow for early Saturday morning, which is still depends on how much wrap around moisture is available compared to when the cold air gets here. The Boys have been back and forth on the snow about four times now, removing from the forecast and then putting it back in, so it will still be interesting watching the temperatures tomorrow night.

I wonder if that wind is going to make it here? I finally have 0.02" in the gauge from some light rain that just started. The wind is still from the NW and light but my dewpoint is up from 37 to 44 in the last hour, so maybe that means I'll get some more rain out of the system.
Quoting LAbonbon:
Knew it was late when I saw Kori posting, but didn't realize how late. I need my beauty sleep...

Good night, all.

And Sar, I hope you get some rain (all 1.81" of it).
GN, Bonnie. I'm up to 0.03" now, so this is a sign of the gully washer to come. :-)
Quoting 241. LAbonbon:

Knew it was late when I saw Kori posting, but didn't realize how late. I need my beauty sleep...

Good night, all.

And Sar, I hope you get some rain (all 1.81" of it).


I need my beauty sleep also. I just tend to get it at less... normal times than most. :)
This is turning out to be a lot more significant than I originally expected
Quoting 225. Patrap:



Grothar,myself and others were still on active duty fighting the Cold War.

Yute's




1984 was some year, hey, Pat?? I can still fit in my uniform. What about you?
Quoting 240. KoritheMan:



No name really sticks out for me this year. Except Victor... he's the victor.

Erika, Fred, Kate and Mindy for me. Kate has always stuck out to me about this naming list.
Quoting 240. KoritheMan:



No name really sticks out for me this year. Except Victor... he's the victor.

Grace sounds like it should be a nice well put together hurricane.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No name really sticks out for me this year. Except Victor... he's the victor.
Bill,Grace,Danny, and Wanda. Love those names.
Quoting 251. Andrebrooks:

Bill,Grace,Danny, and Wanda. Love those names.


Okay, I'll admit to liking Danny. Hopefully it decides to redo what it did in 1997 (see best track), albeit hopefully farther west and not as small.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Yeah, considering it was really close to world war III. As a matter of fact, the U.S. had its own missiles in Turkey during the Cuban missile crisis. Difference was, the Soviet missiles were 90 miles offshore.
We had just installed some obsolescent Jupiter missiles in Italy and Turkey the year before as a sign to the Russians that we could launch medium range missiles from NATO bases in Europe if we wanted to. The Russians discovered them with recon flights, just like we did with missile installations and the missiles on the way to Cuba. We put the missiles in Turkey because they wanted them as a form of protection against the Russians, even though it meant they would be targeted with retaliation missiles. That was not part of the original plan, which was to install them only in Italy. The Russian moves in Cuba were partially in response to us installing missiles overseas as well as not yet having an ICBM capable of hitting the Lower 48 from Russian territory. It was like a giant chess game back then, and I couldn't imagine how we going to avoid all out nuclear war.

Ironically, both the US and the Soviet Union would begin dismantling ICBM bases five years later as we both developed ICBM submarines that could hit each other's territory from any ocean in the world. That's when Mutually Assured Destruction became a reality. Both sides knew that a first strike would not protect them from massive retaliatory attack from submarine based missiles. The atomic scientists never once noted this development in their doomsday clock.
What's with all the anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere?

Quoting Grothar:


1984 was some year, hey, Pat?? I can still fit in my uniform. What about you?
Thanks to both of you for saving my pasty white butt too. If wasn't for you guys being better than the other guys, we would have had a war.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Okay, I'll admit to liking Danny. Hopefully it decides to redo what it did in 1997 (see best track), albeit hopefully farther west and not as small.
I'm with Tyler. I like Fred. I don't know why, I just want a decent storm named Fred to track. Fred just sounds like a cranky old guy that would beat you up in the bar when he got drunk. :-)
Quoting opal92nwf:
This is turning out to be a lot more significant than I originally expected
I hope so, but I'm only up to 0.14" so far with a rain rate of 0.08" per hour, so it needs to do a lot more before it becomes significant.
Goodnight guys. Cu2morrow.
Quoting 255. Grothar:

What's with all the anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere?


nothing don't worry about a thing everything is fine moving along nicely
Hot good morning news from Down Under (49C = 120,2F)

Western Australia's Marble Bar just shy of record heat
7:40pm January 23, 2015
A West Australian town has just missed out on breaking its all-time maximum temperature of 49.2C.
Initial readings show Marble Bar in the Pilbara reached 49C at 3.12pm on Friday before dropping to 47.9C minutes later.
Throughout the day, residents and weather fanatics kept a keen eye on the mercury to see if the town would beat its January 3, 1922 record.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Neil Bennett said if Friday's maximum was confirmed, it would be WA's joint ninth-highest January temperature.
WA's hottest day on record was 50.5C at the coastal Pilbara town of Mardie on February 19, 1998.
It was also the nation's second hottest day.
The highest temperature ever recorded in Australia was 50.7C at Oodnadatta Airport in South Australia on January 2, 1960.
Extreme temperatures are expected to continue in northern WA and parts of the Northern Territory as a heatwave in the region continues into the Australia Day long weekend. ...


Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/01/23/10/23/ searing-heat-endures-in-northern-wa#qCH8TqrgZbZAkj J5.99

BBC weather video:
Heatwave in Australia continues
Quoting 140. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looks like La Nina, but keep this between me and you, don't tell Scott.
Hi GTstorm, it could be a La Nina, but more likely a Modaki El Nino.
266. vis0

Quoting 171. Patrap:

Reference:
How Old is the Universe?
By Nola Taylor Redd, SPACE.com Contributor |




WMAP cosmic microwave fluctuations over the full sky using five years of data. The colors represent tiny temperature fluctuations of the remnant glow from the infant universe:AKA BIG BANG: red regions are warmer and blue are cooler.
Big Bang does not have to mean one loud sound or outward force.

Big Bang could be a light force BUT THROUGHOUT the entire calm ocean that was before.  Like rice on a vibrating pan feeder before the pan is turned ON.  All is still then all at once when the pan is turned ON all the rice micro bounces creating more energy at a lower energy usage than if one added the loudest sound possible onto one bit of rice, - Joda BooBoo ) Josda BooBoo? nick name given to me by 3 girls i knew in college after "Booboo" of Yogi Bear & Yoda. They said i say deep stuff but like BooBoo to Yogi Bear no one listens.

in the end its the quietest crunch.,,,or as to the CBS show the quietest wedding/kiss when Penny & ??? finally tie the knot  ...did i spoil the ending? oops
267. vis0

Quoting 199. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.
see #198 FOR FULL LIST...

!!! Scientists slow the speed of light

DUH!?!, Nature does this every second via specific black holes, as i state turning light into a form of sound/resonance, Q-Novae the opposite. Hmm maybe these scientist will figure this out and learn that one can influence weather as in causing Tornadoes / TS to be steered by using the "dispersed energy" in a "sound" format", its possible cause i say so, watch.,,,okay only Grothar can watch he'll still be around in 100-200 yrs as they figure this out in the lovely tropical "Island" of Scotland. BTW another to be discovered "thing" Ml (M & smaller case L) as i prefer to call "light" has a bit faster speed outside complex star's gray ring, where our Sun's gray ring? Its the point of our Stars .666 AOI, there Ml travels at exactly 186,400 mps, but do not believe me its being discovered as we read as NASA unmanned voyages are reading those areas lets see when its discovered sooner than later. Your Q should then be Why is Ml slower with a complex Star.
Gonna have to watch this area just north of Tampa today as this line of storms south of the FL Panhandle is expected to build south then stop somewhere near Tampa and that is where their could be some 2" to 4" rainfall totals as what is being shown this morning on the short range models.


Notice the MDR over to FL. Looks interesting potentially from the Northern Antillies across PR over to the Bahamas then FL come September even despite this model showing El-Nino. Looking at the precip pattern it seems there's a ridge across the eastern US.



271. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF BAY...GULF...AND WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231211Z - 231415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN GULF INTO WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. WATERSPOUTS COULD THREATEN THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BAY COUNTY...THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS LATTER OCCURRENCE IS MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO GULF AND WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THE LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OVER GULF/WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES PRECLUDES THE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 12Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM ERN BAY COUNTY SWWD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO /75 NM S PNS/...WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS EAST OF THE BROKEN LINE SHOWING PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED SOME ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE...WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS WELL INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR BVE WITH A MARINE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO /APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SE PNS/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN REMAINING OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SEWD TO THE SOUTH OF BUOYS SG0F1 AND 42036. MEANWHILE...THE DISCRETE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NEWD NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE.

TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS MAINTAINING A HOSTILE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE-BASED. IF THE MARINE BOUNDARY CAN REACH COASTAL AREAS OF GULF AND/OR WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES BEFORE THE LINE OF STORMS AND CONFLUENCE ZONE EACH MOVE EWD THIS MORNING...THEN WATERSPOUTS COULD POSE A THREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 01/23/2015
Quoting 269. tampabaymatt:




Looks to a booming night from Tampa to Orlando as the line near Tally moves in and stops for several hours as it waits for that upper air disturbance currently across Texas.
275. beell


Some rotation in the cell onshore NNW of Panama City.

Nice S-shaped zero-velocity band on Doppler. Indicative of veering winds w/height.
Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 4:11 AM EST on January 23, 2015
...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for mixture of snow...sleet...and freezing rain...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Saturday.

* Locations...portions of northeast New Jersey...the lower Hudson Valley...and most of southern Connecticut.

* Hazard types...snow and ice.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches...with up to a tenth of an inch of ice.

* Visibilities...1/2 mile or less in snow...mainly in the morning.

* Timing...snow begins early Saturday morning. The heaviest snow...likely mixed with sleet and freezing rain...will be Saturday morning through afternoon. Snow tapers off in the evening.

* Impacts...hazardous travel conditions due to reduced visbilities and snow/ice covered roads.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.
Quoting 275. beell:

img src="http://i243.photobucket.com/albums/ff316/b00b le55/codnexlab.NEXRAD.TLH.N0S.20150123.1302.006ani .gif

Some rotation in the cell onshore WNW of Panama City.

Nice S-shaped zero-velocity band on Doppler. Indicative of veering winds w/height.


Supercells developing south of the FL Panhandle as well.



3 to 5 inches of snow for east haven on friday night in to saturday
Another useless rainstorm is imminent tonight into tomorrow.I'm going to visit little Italy in Baltimore this weekend.It's best to go during the summer but I've been craving some good italian food and Oliver Garden will not be sufficient enough.
Friday Night: Rain and snow mix develops near the I-95 corridor, including Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia. Snow could reach as far north as New York City. The greatest chance for seeing precipitation mainly in the form of snow is northwest of I-95 in the Middle Atlantic. A mixture of rain and snow changing to all snow also moves into the central Appalachians, including parts of West Virginia and western Virginia.

Saturday: Snow or a rain and snow mix is expected throughout the I-95 corridor during the day from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia, New York City, Boston and Portland, Maine. Where exactly the rain versus snow line sets up is uncertain at this time, but it will likely shift west during the day as temperatures warm slightly. Most of the major cities should change from snow to rain and then possibly back to snow. Precipitation tapers off in the Middle Atlantic and central Appalachians late in the day. Gusty winds possible near coastal locations.

Saturday Night: By Saturday evening, and continuing into the overnight hours, much of the snow will be confined to eastern New England. This includes Providence, Rhode Island, Boston, and Portland, Maine. Gusty winds are also likely to move through these areas as well.
2 to 8 inches depends where you are n.e us pbs news warm & sticky here e cen fl.
World is full of miracles :-)

Snownado:



Poonado:


(Sorry in case you were not finished with breakfast yet ;-)
283. vis0

Quoting 255. Grothar:

What's with all the anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere?

i only see 1/3 of Southern,  that said maybe Nature at first tries to squelch the "over heating" by letting off a little steam bit by bit throughout the globe, then DOOM! (Simpson to classy SOM), DOE! , ♪a deer, a female deer. Ray, a drop of golden sun. Me, a name I call myself. Far, a long long way to run all the way to the southern Hemisphere!♪ -or- it could be the fish had to much spicy food.
It's Friday!!

Link

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN
SHELTERED VALLEYS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE TONIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTHERLY
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS THAT ARE UNTREATED WILL BECOME
SLIPPERY...CAUSING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING
CONDITIONS.

286. MahFL
Quoting 121. Patrap:


Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has died.



Lol, that's yesterdays news, do keep up !
Quoting KoritheMan:


No name really sticks out for me this year. Except Victor... he's the victor.


Bill was a pretty powerful hurricane last time around.
The Euro has been terrible this winter for around here (D.C metro).Maybe the Euro has finally come to peer pressure and was passed some of those drugs the GFS was using...
Quoting 288. washingtonian115:

The Euro has been terrible this winter for around here (D.C metro).Maybe the Euro has finally come to peer pressure and was passed some of those drugs the GFS was using...


Well I can tell U Winter is passing by fast here in C & S FL. Really only have 2 to 3 more weeks of what is considered true Winter here across the Penisula. Sun angle is getting higher everyday and the days are getting longer. It now is getting dark not until 6:15pm.
Looks familiar. Storm track keeps the focus of the rainfall across northern Fl. South Florida continues to be dry.
Quoting 290. Sfloridacat5:

Looks familiar. Storm track keeps the focus of the rainfall across northern Fl. South Florida continues to be dry.



GFS as usual is very poor with precip distribution. Every single short range model has a interesting set up near or just north of Tampa this evening as this line stalls for awhile. Looking like a loud night across C FL. Also you should pick up near a half inch of rain tomorrow morning and you might even get some thunder and lightning.
292. vis0
Quoting 171. Patrap:

Reference:
How Old is the Universe?
By Nola Taylor Redd, SPACE.com Contributor |




WMAP cosmic microwave fluctuations over the full sky using five years of data. The colors represent tiny temperature fluctuations of the remnant glow from the infant universe:AKA BIG BANG: red regions are warmer and blue are cooler.
Thoug ht that someone would've typed either "oh what a luvly Carolina Chickadee egg or Easter soon don't forget the food colours.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


GFS as usual is very poor with precip distribution. Every single short range model has a interesting set up near or just north of Tampa this evening as this line stalls for awhile. Looking like a loud night across C FL. Also you should pick up near a half inch of rain tomorrow morning and you might even get some thunder and lightning.


We'll see. How many times have I heard that before?
.50" of precipitation over the past 58 days here.
294. MahFL
Some pretty tall thunderheads in there :

Quoting 271. beell:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF BAY...GULF...AND WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231211Z - 231415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS TO MOVE ONSHORE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN GULF INTO WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. WATERSPOUTS COULD THREATEN THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BAY COUNTY...THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS LATTER OCCURRENCE IS MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO GULF AND WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THE LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OVER GULF/WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES PRECLUDES THE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AT 12Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM ERN BAY COUNTY SWWD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO /75 NM S PNS/...WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS EAST OF THE BROKEN LINE SHOWING PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED SOME ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROKEN LINE...WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS WELL INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR BVE WITH A MARINE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO /APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SE PNS/...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN REMAINING OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SEWD TO THE SOUTH OF BUOYS SG0F1 AND 42036. MEANWHILE...THE DISCRETE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING NEWD NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE.

TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED LOW-LEVEL ROTATIONS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NEAR THE COAST OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS MAINTAINING A HOSTILE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SURFACE-BASED. IF THE MARINE BOUNDARY CAN REACH COASTAL AREAS OF GULF AND/OR WRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES BEFORE THE LINE OF STORMS AND CONFLUENCE ZONE EACH MOVE EWD THIS MORNING...THEN WATERSPOUTS COULD POSE A THREAT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 01/23/2015

NWS gives us 40% tonight and 60% tomorrow.
But until it's actually raining, I won't believe it.
298. vis0
Quoting 282. barbamz:

World is full of miracles :-)

Snownado:



Poonado:


(Sorry in case you were not finished with breakfast yet ;-)
was JUST eating breakfast...upchucknado! ...too soon? if banned remember who posted to watch fer da 2 LOW coming off Fl, Today's # 1 next week #2. oh i had to say #2 again blaaraaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh
Quoting 293. Sfloridacat5:



We'll see. How many times have I heard that before?
.50" of precipitation over the past 58 days here.


Hang in there as the line should hold together as it reaches you.
Storms are training over the same area.
Quoting beell:


Some rotation in the cell onshore NNW of Panama City.

Nice S-shaped zero-velocity band on Doppler. Indicative of veering winds w/height.
I didn't see any warnings out of Tallahassee so I guess that rotation didn't produce anything. No convection up here, just a nice steady rain overnight that's given me 2.10" so far. I'm happy. Looks like I'm in a little dry slot now but more rain is coming from what looks like another low forming just off the far western Florida Panhandle. The warm front looks like it wants to stall as well. We can take rain like this all day but it looks like some places on the Panhandle are already up to 5.00" so they are having some flooding issues there.
I sure hope we get some significant rainfall down here, because we have chilly and very dry air moving in behind the front.
good luck getting some rain south florida,i know you folks really need it too.........
Good Morning. Actually just a typical frontal rain passage for North Florida with plenty of rain and we needed the rain. I just drove West through the rain from Tallahassee on I-10 (to another town West of us) and the rain was pretty hefty. Just have to drive carefully and hold on tight to the steering wheel. The drainage on I-10 between Tally and Panama City is just horrible and the rain just puddles up on I-10; hydroplane city if you don't slow down.
Repost
Quoting 266. vis0:


Big Bang does not have to mean one loud sound or outward force.

Big Bang could be a light force BUT THROUGHOUT the entire calm ocean that was before.  Like rice on a vibrating pan feeder before the pan is turned ON.  All is still then all at once when the pan is turned ON all the rice micro bounces creating more energy at a lower energy usage than if one added the loudest sound possible onto one bit of rice, - Joda BooBoo ) Josda BooBoo? nick name given to me by 3 girls i knew in college after "Booboo" of Yogi Bear & Yoda. They said i say deep stuff but like BooBoo to Yogi Bear no one listens.

in the end its the quietest crunch.,,,or as to the CBS show the quietest wedding/kiss when Penny & ??? finally tie the knot  ...did i spoil the ending? oops

Yep..and Steven Hawking was quoted as saying “If the rate of expansion one second after the big bang had been smaller by even one part in a hundred thousand million million, the universe would have re-collapsed before it ever reached its present size. Someone or something had a very good math skills..:)
Quoting LargoFl:
good luck getting some rain south florida,i know you folks really need it too.........


The energy from these systems just falls apart as it gets down into southern Florida. That's been the case with every system so far this season.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Storms are training over the same area.
I hope that batch of storms by Pensacola will keep heading up in this direction since it's quit raining for now. It looks like this area of low pressure is still developing and starting to stretch out while the front stalls. Some areas of the Panhandle have already gotten a lot of rain and some thunderstorms. The WPC got the areas of rain about right but this is one of the few times I've seen the totals under predicted.
...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

.HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES IN PLACE. IN GENERAL...2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS
COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH
SOME URBAN FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN MOVES REPEATEDLY
OVER A CITY.

FLZ007>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-GAZ127 -129-143>148-
155>161-240000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.A.0001.150123T0842Z-150124T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-
MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-
COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-
WORTH-TIFT-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BE RRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...HUDSON...BONIFAY...
CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...
MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGSTOWN...BLOUNTSTOWN...WHIT E CITY...
WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSE E...
SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWA TER...
CRAWFORDVILLE...FREEPORT...SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...
PARKER...PORT SAINT JOE...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...
SAINT MARKS...SYLVESTER...TIFTON...COLQUITT...NEWTON...C AMILLA...
PELHAM...MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...D ONALSONVILLE...
BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALD OSTA...LAKELAND
342 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015 /242 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN FLORIDA...CALHOUN...CENTRAL
WALTON...COASTAL BAY...COASTAL FRANKLIN...COASTAL GULF...
COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL WAKULLA...GADSDEN...HOLMES...
INLAND BAY...INLAND FRANKLIN...INLAND GULF...INLAND
JEFFERSON...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...SOUTH WALTON AND WASHINGTON. IN GEORGIA...
BAKER...BERRIEN...BROOKS...COLQUITT...COOK...DECAT UR...GRADY...
LANIER...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...SEMINOLE... THOMAS...
TIFT AND WORTH.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME URBAN FLOODING.
313. MahFL
Light rain in downtown JAX.
Quoting 310. Sfloridacat5:



The energy from these systems just falls apart as it gets down into southern Florida. That's been the case with every system so far this season.
yeah it happens here by me also...hopefully when the cold front bangs into your warm and humid temps..this time you may get some.
Quoting 211. Patrap:

"the howling moan of Elena's backside approaching"
That's quite an evocative picture, Pat! :-)
Southern Queens Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 4:11 AM EST on January 23, 2015
...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a mixture of snow...sleet...and freezing rain...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Saturday.

* Locations...portions of northeast New Jersey...New York City...and western and central Long Island.

* Hazard types...snow and ice.

* Accumulations...2 to 4 inches of snow...along with a light ice accretion.

* Visibilities...1/2 mile or less in snow...mainly in the early morning.

* Timing...snow begins early Saturday morning. The heaviest snow...likely mixed with sleet and freezing rain...will be Saturday morning. Snow tapers off in the evening.

* Impacts...hazardous travel conditions due to reduced visbilities and snow/ice covered roads.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.



right next to the coast line on the northeast
"The Guardian" has a fresh contribution to the subject of the blog entry (tough story!):
I was struck by lightning twice
"I felt myself leaving my body, looking down at myself as one of the guards tried to revive me. I felt I had a choice, to turn away or to face the pain"
Beth Peterson, The Guardian, Friday 23 January 2015 14.00 GMT
Look to the coast of Brazil:
hmmmmmmm.......here's the E3 CFSV2 ENSO 3.4 run.....the E3 is the latest 10 day run......

notice any changes?...gone is the super duper el nino...it's finally coming around....we saw the january euro means drop from it's december run...and now the CFSV2 is free falling.....any idea why we're seeing the pro mets giving up on el nino happening?

The melting layer is extremely low beneath the upper low in Texas. Several locations in the Hill Country/Edwards Plateau have seen snow mix in with the rain or, in some cases, a complete changeover to snow.





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sunny weather here! in east haven,conn
Good morning

It's a lovely 80 with a few clouds hanging around here on the island today.

I would like to take a moment and thank the many of you that took time out of your day to send me comments and emails with reference to our recent loss. I apologize in advance if I didn't acknowledge you by email. It was an honest miss on my part! Again, thank you. It meant a lot.

I hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy



It's going to be quite a bit cooler (as in highs 10 cooler than today's) tomorrow for most of Florida.
Norway police urge people to remember they live in Norway after stupid snow complaints
Ollie McAteer for Metro.co.uk and Pejman Faratin for Metro.co.ukWednesday 21 Jan 2015 5:17 pm
... ‘People are calling and complaining that it’s snowing and that they’re late for work, they haven’t received their newspaper, and so on and so forth. These reports will not be prioritized.’ ...

Lol!! However, there is a lot of snow in parts of Norway right now for sure:


26-foot snow banks spotted in Norway; KOB Albuquerque, NM Jan. 22, 2015. 07:46 AM


snow will be here soon in the next 16 hours!
!!! Scientists slow the speed of light

and when will see "Scientists increase the speed of light"?

cause its there just need to fudge a few numbers

from the uncommon folk above sea level :)
Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

MOORE, Okla. —Tonight south Moore residents can rest a little easier knowing the city has a plan to protect them.

The city is planning to build a protective wall along I-35, which will provide protection to those who live between South 4th and South 19th streets.

Moore city officials said the wall will shield residents as much as it can from daily debris, noise and strong winds during a tornado or thunderstorm.

Officials are holding a meeting to get feedback from the community. They want to know what the residents think the wall should look like.

The input will be compiled into a list of options so residents can vote and have the final say on the end results.

KOCO talked to Tod Thornton, who has lived in south Moore for three years now. He remember how much debris flew into his backyard damaging his home.

“We had signs from the Warren Theater that blew into our backyard, piled up against our house and got into the kitchen.”

He said the wall will be a welcome sight in his neck of the woods.

“We love it. We are really excited. I think it’s going to be a really good addition to the community.”

Elizabeth Jones, director of community development, said they have $2 million to $3 million dollars to make it happen.

The details on when construction on the wall will begin and when it will be completed are still being worked out.

“The project has to be done no later than 2019. The project will probably start at anywhere between 12-18 months from now. Residents will start to see a major undertaking,” Jones said.

If you have an idea for the wall or want to hear ideas from other residents, the meeting starts at 6:30 Thursday evening at the Moore City Hall in the council chambers.

Link

...sigh

The article was modified this morning to remove the mention of protection from tornadoes.
Quoting 320. ricderr:
hmmmmmmm.......here's the E3 CFSV2 ENSO 3.4 run.....the E3 is the latest 10 day run......

notice any changes?...gone is the super duper el nino...it's finally coming around....we saw the january euro means drop from it's december run...and now the CFSV2 is free falling.....any idea why we're seeing the pro mets giving up on el nino happening?



Crow futures are trading limit up! How much snow did you get?
The Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Arthur has been released.

"Arthur is the earliest hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina since records began in 1851, surpassing the date when a hurricane made landfall between Kill Devil Hills and Kitty Hawk on 11 July 1901."

"There were no reports of casualties associated with Arthur. Arthur is the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the mainland United States without being responsible for any direct deaths since Hurricane Bret, which made landfall in a sparsely populated area of South Texas as a category 3 hurricane in 1999."

Link
332. wxmod
BeijingAir @BeijingAir · 33m 33 minutes ago

01-23-2015 23:00; PM2.5; 280.0; 330; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
Beautiful and very well defined extratropical cyclone southeast of New Zealand.

Quoting 333. pablosyn:

Beautiful and very well defined extratropical cyclone southeast of New Zealand.




I love how they rotate the opposite direction to our storms!
CAD snows in western Virginia and North Carolina.

Maximum snow fall potential for the upcoming storm in the NYC metro region:



Quoting 336. LongIslandBeaches:

Maximum snow fall potential for the upcoming storm in the NYC metro region:






If the latest GFS run verifies they will be lucky to see half of that.
watch out for the GFS model bad jobs with snow storms!!
Quoting 338. Drakoen:



If the latest GFS run verifies they will be lucky to see half of that.


Heh.. believe me, I'm not dusting off the snow blower quite yet. "Most likely" amounts were in the 3-4" range.

"Minimum" amounts were 0.

I'm not holding my breath.


wow 8 inches of snow in new haven



snowfall starting to go up on this storm
Quoting 341. hurricanes2018:

wow 8 inches of snow in new haven


I'm pulling for ya - good luck hitting that amount. Doubt there will be enough cold air pulled south enough to make this anything more than a good inch or two, followed by some ice and cold wind driven rain.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...NEW YORK
CITY...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH A LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION.

* VISIBILITIES...1/2 MILE OR LESS IN SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EARLY
MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...LIKELY MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WILL BE
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISBILITIES
AND SNOW/ICE COVERED ROADS.
Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 4:11 AM EST on January 23, 2015
...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for mixture of snow...sleet...and freezing rain...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Saturday.

* Locations...portions of northeast New Jersey...the lower Hudson Valley...and most of southern Connecticut.

* Hazard types...snow and ice.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches...with up to a tenth of an inch of ice.

* Visibilities...1/2 mile or less in snow...mainly in the morning.

* Timing...snow begins early Saturday morning. The heaviest snow...likely mixed with sleet and freezing rain...will be Saturday morning through afternoon. Snow tapers off in the evening.

* Impacts...hazardous travel conditions due to reduced visbilities and snow/ice covered roads.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.
12Z GFS
System number 1


Then system number 2 comes in.
The clipper coming down from Canada will be the bigger story as far as snow is concerned. Cold air will already be in place and the models are trending south for a good hit for portions of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic.
347. gjc
Thanks for the interesting article.
Coastal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 11:48 AM EST on January 23, 2015
...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from noon to 4 PM EST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a coastal Flood Advisory...which is in effect from noon to 4 PM EST Saturday.

* Location...east coastal Massachusetts from Boston Harbor to Cape Cod...as well as Nantucket.

* Coastal flooding...minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. A low risk of moderate coastal flooding. Storm surge around a foot.

* Timing...around the early afternoon high tide.

* Impacts...vulnerable shore roads will experience flooding around the time of high tide. Some roads may need to be closed.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory is issued for minor coastal flooding of the most vulnerable shore roads and/or basements due to the height of storm tide or wave splashover. The majority of roads remain passable with only isolated closures. There is no significant threat to life and any impact on property is minimal.

All tide heights are relative to mean lower low water. Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Boston Harbor

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 0.0 23/07 am 0.0 0.0 1 none 11.8 23/01 PM 11.8 0.0 1 none 11.1 24/02 am 11.1 0.0 1-2 none 12.3 24/02 PM 11.4 0.9 1-2 minor 11.4 25/03 am 11.0 0.4 2 none 10.8 25/03 PM 10.8 0.0 2 none

Scituate

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 11.2 23/01 PM 11.2 0.0 2 none 10.6 24/02 am 10.6 0.0 2-3 none 11.9 24/02 PM 10.9 1.0 2-5 minor 11.1 25/03 am 10.7 0.4 4 none 10.4 25/03 PM 10.4 0.0 2 none

Sandwich Harbor

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 10.8 23/01 PM 10.8 0.0 1-2 none 10.1 24/02 am 10.1 0.0 1 none 11.4 24/02 PM 10.4 1.0 2-6 none 10.4 25/03 am 10.0 0.4 3-4 none 9.8 25/03 PM 9.8 0.0 2-3 none

Provincetown Harbor

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 0.0 23/07 am 0.0 0.0 2-3 none 11.5 23/01 PM 11.5 0.0 2 none 10.8 24/02 am 10.8 0.0 1-2 none 12.1 24/02 PM 11.1 1.0 2-4 minor 11.2 25/03 am 10.8 0.4 3 none 10.6 25/03 PM 10.6 0.0 3 none

Chatham - East Coast

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 7.3 23/02 PM 7.3 0.0 3 none 6.8 24/02 am 6.8 0.0 2-3 none 7.9 24/03 PM 7.1 0.8 4-7 none 7.3 25/03 am 6.9 0.4 7 none 6.8 25/04 PM 6.8 0.0 4-5 none

Chatham - South Coast

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 4.9 23/02 PM 4.9 0.0 2 none 4.5 24/02 am 4.5 0.0 2 none 5.8 24/03 PM 4.7 1.1 2-4 none 5.0 25/03 am 4.6 0.4 3-4 none 4.5 25/04 PM 4.5 0.0 2-3 none

Buzzards Bay - Woods Hole

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 0.0 23/05 am 0.0 0.0 1 none 2.5 23/10 am 2.5 0.0 1 none 2.2 23/11 PM 2.2 0.0 1 none 3.0 24/11 am 2.3 0.7 1-2 none 2.6 25/12 am 2.2 0.4 3 none 2.0 25/12 PM 2.0 0.0 1 none 2.1 26/12 am 2.1 0.0 1 none

Wings Neck

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 0.0 23/05 am 0.0 0.0 1 none 5.0 23/11 am 5.0 0.0 1 none 4.6 23/11 PM 4.6 0.0 1 none 5.5 24/12 PM 4.7 0.8 1-2 none 4.9 25/12 am 4.5 0.4 3 none 4.3 25/01 PM 4.3 0.0 2 none 4.4 26/01 am 4.4 0.0 1 none

Nantucket Harbor

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 3.8 23/02 PM 3.8 0.0 1-2 none 3.5 24/03 am 3.5 0.0 1-2 none 4.7 24/03 PM 3.7 1.0 3-5 minor 3.9 25/04 am 3.5 0.4 3-4 none 3.5 25/04 PM 3.5 0.0 2 none

Nantucket East Coast - erosion impacts

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 3.8 23/02 PM 3.8 0.0 2-3 none 3.5 24/03 am 3.5 0.0 2-3 none 4.6 24/03 PM 3.6 1.0 4-7 none 3.9 25/03 am 3.5 0.4 7-8 none 3.4 25/04 PM 3.4 0.0 4-6 none

Nantucket - Madaket area erosion impacts

total astro tide day/time tide surge waves flood /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ /ft/ category ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 0.0 23/07 am 0.0 0.0 2 none 2.8 23/02 PM 2.8 0.0 2 none 2.7 24/02 am 2.7 0.0 2-3 none 3.8 24/03 PM 2.7 1.1 3-6 none 3.0 25/03 am 2.6 0.4 7-9 none 2.6 25/04 PM 2.6 0.0 4-5 none

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at www.Weather.Gov/Boston


adding more snow look at the 5 to 8 inches of snow its getrting bigger not going by the gfs model
Quoting 346. Drakoen:

The clipper coming down from Canada will be the bigger story as far as snow is concerned. Cold air will already be in place and the models are trending south for a good hit for portions of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic.


Yes, the rule that DC metro gets diddly from clippers seems to have been broken repeately the past two winters and Monday morning's again looks impressive on the 6Z GFS. Saturday looks to me like a cold wet gloppy washout.
Quoting 306. LargoFl:

good luck getting some rain south florida,i know you folks really need it too.........
Hi Largo, if we continue to have a dry winter and spring, we usually make up for it in the summer, with a lot of tropical rains from thunderstorms and tropical storms or hurricanes.
Quoting 325. barbamz:

Norway police urge people to remember they live in Norway after stupid snow complaints
Ollie McAteer for Metro.co.uk and Pejman Faratin for Metro.co.ukWednesday 21 Jan 2015 5:17 pm
... ‘People are calling and complaining that it’s snowing and that they’re late for work, they haven’t received their newspaper, and so on and so forth. These reports will not be prioritized.’ ...

Lol!! However, there is a lot of snow in parts of Norway right now for sure:


26-foot snow banks spotted in Norway; KOB Albuquerque, NM Jan. 22, 2015. 07:46 AM



Hey!! Don't make fun of the Norwegians and snow. :)

Here is a picture of my class going to school when I was a little boy.

Quoting 351. NativeSun:

Hi Largo, if we continue to have a dry winter and spring, we usually make up for it in the summer, with a lot of tropical rains from thunderstorms and tropical storms or hurricanes.
oh yes, you folks get more of the tropical rains than we do up here usually...good luck today and tomorrow..hope you get some.
Crow futures are trading limit up! How much snow did you get?


officially we received a quarter inch at the airport.........at home though i put out a measure board and we had just under an inch
Quoting 250. opal92nwf:


Grace sounds like it should be a nice well put together hurricane.
Quoting 288. washingtonian115:

The Euro has been terrible this winter for around here (D.C metro).Maybe the Euro has finally come to peer pressure and was passed some of those drugs the GFS was using...



Monday morning is less than 72 hours out and to me it looks moderately ugly for DC metro area commuters.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AROUND 3 INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.


.NOW...
A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE MIDDLE KEYS IS LIFTING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER KEYS. THESE MARINE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY CROSS
PORTIONS OF LOWER KEYS...BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN A BRIEF SPELL OF
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 130 PM.

Quoting 350. georgevandenberghe:



Yes, the rule that DC metro gets diddly from clippers seems to have been broken repeately the past two winters and Monday morning's again looks impressive on the 6Z GFS. Saturday looks to me like a cold wet gloppy washout.


Think this weekend we will end up with up to an inch of slushy snow mainly on grassy and wooden surfaces. Rain will make it hard for anything to accumulate on the roads. Monday could be a different story.

12z GFS has it snowing for almost 2 days with a little of half a foot more in the NW suburbs. NAM looks similar. Looking forward to it.
A mix of rain and snow or a change to plain rain for a time will limit the snowfall accumulation from Washington, D.C., to Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Providence, Rhode Island. Only a small amount of snow will fall around Washington, D.C. However, farther to the northeast, several inches of snow can accumulate prior to or following a change to rain.
Slushy travel may be followed by poor drainage area flooding on Saturday along the I-95 upper mid-Atlantic swath. Then a change back to snow and slush may occur at the tail end of the storm.
North and west of the I-95 swath from Washington, D.C., to New York City, more substantial snow will fall with likely enough to shovel and plow. A few inches of snow may fall from Martinsburg, West Virginia, to Harrisburg and Scranton, Pennsylvania and Middletown, New York, even if some sleet and rain mix in.
Quite a frontal passage with the embedded low (riding along the jet stream dip); I have not seen such a mass dip down this far South into the Caribbean in a long time.. i remember one deep one a few years ago that brought a small squall line across Cuba but that is usually the exception:





wow!!
Another storm should follow.

363. 882MB
Quoting 337. Gearsts:




Small little swirl north of PR.







364. bwi
I'm been discounting the coastal and hyping the clipper for DC impact for a while now. Latest GFS seems to like my instinct, with a freezing line for the coastal way up at the MD-PA line, and a more southerly track for the clipper! Also a bit interesting to start speculating about the following weekend, with pretty cold air in place.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1143 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

MDZ501-502-WVZ501>504-240045-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0006.150123T2100Z-150124T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.150123T2100Z-150124T1700Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...BAYARD...
MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
1143 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SATURDAY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO
SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S WHEN PRECIPITATIONS STARTS...DECREASING
TO THE UPPER 20S LATE TONIGHT.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED...RESULTING IN SNOW-COVERED
ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
SHOVEL AND PLOW.

Quoting 345. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS
System number 1


Then system number 2 comes in.


I hope the second storm verifies. However, in southern Virginia we typically don't get any frozen precip. that amounts to anything unless its a Nor'easter. The Appalachians tend to stop everything.
And here is the lower level vort signature for the Gulf Low (now over North Florida) per CIMSS. I will note that there has been almost no winds in the Big Bend region all morning in spite of the steady rain:

Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

MOORE, Okla. —Tonight south Moore residents can rest a little easier knowing the city has a plan to protect them.

The city is planning to build a protective wall along I-35, which will provide protection to those who live between South 4th and South 19th streets.

Moore city officials said the wall will shield residents as much as it can from daily debris, noise and strong winds during a tornado or thunderstorm.

Officials are holding a meeting to get feedback from the community. They want to know what the residents think the wall should look like.

The input will be compiled into a list of options so residents can vote and have the final say on the end results.

KOCO talked to Tod Thornton, who has lived in south Moore for three years now. He remember how much debris flew into his backyard damaging his home.

“We had signs from the Warren Theater that blew into our backyard, piled up against our house and got into the kitchen.”

He said the wall will be a welcome sight in his neck of the woods.

“We love it. We are really excited. I think it’s going to be a really good addition to the community.”

Elizabeth Jones, director of community development, said they have $2 million to $3 million dollars to make it happen.

The details on when construction on the wall will begin and when it will be completed are still being worked out.

“The project has to be done no later than 2019. The project will probably start at anywhere between 12-18 months from now. Residents will start to see a major undertaking,” Jones said.

If you have an idea for the wall or want to hear ideas from other residents, the meeting starts at 6:30 Thursday evening at the Moore City Hall in the council chambers.

Link

...sigh


Why is the Maginot Line in France (we all know how that worked out ) the first thing th at comes to mind??
Quoting 299. StormTrackerScott:



Hang in there as the line should hold together as it reaches you.


The latest HRRR model essentially shows everything breaking up by the time it reaches Tampa; GFS seems to reflect the same. What model are you looking at that shows 2" to 4" inches of rain reaching the I-4 corridor?
Quoting 369. georgevandenberghe:



Why is the Maginot Line in France (we all know how that worked out ) the first thing th at comes to mind??
take the money and built U/G shelters would be better no
but I guess its also to serve as a buffer from the traffic of the highway and all that comes with it
but I doubt it will be safe if an ef4 is heading for moore sitting behind that wall won't do ya much good
Sitting under the center of the low in the Big Bend, and realizing that the winds are currently relatively calm, is a good analogy to a more compact tropical storm or hurricane. Winds are calm in the eye (the coc of a storm) and the bands (and eyewall) contain the strongest winds. Winds should pick up a little in North Florida, out of the W-SW, as the low continues to move towards the Eastern Seaboard later.


dead of winter approaches
Quoting 376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



dead of winter approaches


Better fire up those boilers and seek shelter.
Quoting 376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



dead of winter approaches
I,ll say..Coldest so far this season for the east if it pans out...Greetings Keep.
looks like a frozen groundhog for groundhog day lol

<
Quoting 377. tampabaymatt:



Better fire up those boilers and seek shelter.
boilers been running just toasty inside 75.3 been that temp since nov inside anyway
Quoting 378. hydrus:

I,ll say..Coldest so far this season for the east if it pans out...Greetings Keep.
feb is normally the coldest month for winter then as we get to the end of feb the deep cold is pretty much done as spring starts to get ever closer and temp slowly start the daily climb upward with the advancing sun
Past 2 days have brought some fantastic long lasting rains and should prove to finally rid a lot of the drought especially with more rain coming in about 8-10 days.





Good riddance to the over 4 year drought! :)
Tropical Cyclone Niko
Tropical Cyclone Niko is a tropical cyclone with a maximum wind speed of 64 mph. It is currently moving to the south-southeast at 9 mph.
Quoting 381. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

feb is normally the coldest month for winter then as we get to the end of feb the deep cold is pretty much done as spring starts to get ever closer and temp slowly start the daily climb upward with the advancing sun


next 3-4 weeks are usually our coldest temperatures of the winter !!
Quoting 384. whitewabit:



next 3-4 weeks are usually our coldest temperatures of the winter !!


that takes us to mid feb by then
not long more a couple of months to go
by end of march we get back into cool temps as oppose to cold temps by then - 20 or -30 is pretty rare for that late of season be early spring winter will be long gone
today is nice out
bright sunshine temps just below freeze point
we are at 31.5f here at the moment
windchills are high in the breeze feels like 20f outside
but still not bad at all been good winter just cold that's it
388. sixit
It seems that the proliferation of lightning attractants such as utility towers and ground lines draped across the country in populated areas contributes to the massive decline in the death rate for the U.S. The graph showing utility infrastructure since 1900 would likely be very telling.
Quoting 310. Sfloridacat5:



The energy from these systems just falls apart as it gets down into southern Florida. That's been the case with every system so far this season.
Too many religious golfers no doubt...
Quoting 372. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

take the money and built U/G shelters would be better no
but I guess its also to serve as a buffer from the traffic of the highway and all that comes with it
but I doubt it will be safe if an ef4 is heading for moore sitting behind that wall won't do ya much good
And they are betting on a specific track as well... they may as well just pull out all the stops and go for a Dome!
'Dire' needs of southern African flood survivors unmet two weeks on
BY LIISA TUHKANEN
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:41am EST

LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Two weeks after floods first swept across southern Africa, tens of thousands of people urgently need clean water, food, shelter and medical care, aid agencies said on Friday, as more rain was forecast for worst-affected Malawi.

Torrential rain triggered floods in early January, affecting some 900,000 people across Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe, with almost 250,000 people forced to leave their homes, the United Nations said this week.
Full Article
..


just hit the freeze point now
Quoting JNFlori30A:
Too many religious golfers no doubt...


Yeah, they're out there today as usual. I've got 81 degrees with a nice breeze gusting to 21 mph at the house.

Getting ready for the big cool down next week. Highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Official numbers for For Fort Myers.
Mostly Cloudy
80F
27C
Humidity 58%
Wind SpeedS 15 G 23 mph
Barometer29.98 in (1015.5 mb)
Dewpoint 64F (18C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index 82F (28C)
Last Update on 23 Jan 1:53 pm EST

Quoting 382. SouthCentralTx:

Past 2 days have brought some fantastic long lasting rains and should prove to finally rid a lot of the drought especially with more rain coming in about 8-10 days.





Good riddance to the over 4 year drought! :)


Lake Travis up .51 in last 30 days. Source:
Keep -

I don't quite understand that map you posted in 379.

The white temperatures equate to 280K ... which would be roughly 45 F (or 7 C) ... frozen wha????
Some parts of the nation are getting pounded so far this Winter but the effects are always regional and often vary with the Enso cycle and trajectories of the winter systems. I will only note, for North Florida, that I have lived in Tallahassee now for 14 years and that this has been the warmest January that I can remember (with only a few real cold days thus far).

February is typically our coldest month so I have to wait to see what our peak winter period brings but we are off to a relatively warm start in these parts. As an avid wade-fisherman, needing 70 plus coastal water temps for my particular fishing spots, the warmer the Feb temps, the earlier the March waters start to warm up again.





saturday morning weather heavy snow in new york city
Quoting 395. LongIslandBeaches:

Keep -

I don't quite understand that map you posted in 379.

The white temperatures equate to 280K ... which would be roughly 45 F (or 7 C) ... frozen wha????


here is a surface temp chart which will be better

and a windchill map for the same
Quoting 358. Drakoen:



Think this weekend we will end up with up to an inch of slushy snow mainly on grassy and wooden surfaces. Rain will make it hard for anything to accumulate on the roads. Monday could be a different story.

12z GFS has it snowing for almost 2 days with a little of half a foot more in the NW suburbs. NAM looks similar. Looking forward to it.
I have to see to believe.
Quoting 381. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

feb is normally the coldest month for winter then as we get to the end of feb the deep cold is pretty much done as spring starts to get ever closer and temp slowly start the daily climb upward with the advancing sun


January is the coldest month on average in the Mid Atlantic. But February gets a little more snow on average.

The first half of February is basically January but temps usually start warming the last ten days.

Quoting 397. weathermanwannabe:

The rest of the nation is getting pounded so far this Winter but the effects are always regional and often vary with the Enso cycle and trajectories of the winter systems. I will only note, for North Florida, that I have lived in Tallahassee now for 14 years and this has been the warmest January that I can remember (with only a few real cold days thus far).

February is typically our coldest month so I have to wait what our peak winter period brings but we are off to a relatively warm start in these parts. As an avid wade-fisherman, needing 70 plus coastal water temps for my particular fishing spots, the warmer the Feb temps, the earlier the March waters start to warm up again.

? The rest of the nation isn't getting pounded. The west coast is so warm ski areas are shutting down. The lower Ohio Valley is in a record snow drought
Quoting 399. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



here is a surface temp chart which will be better

and a windchill map for the same

Does't Feb 2nd mark the midway point between winter and spring?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
take the money and built U/G shelters would be better no
but I guess its also to serve as a buffer from the traffic of the highway and all that comes with it
but I doubt it will be safe if an ef4 is heading for moore sitting behind that wall won't do ya much good


Down here in my area, I75 has large walls separating it from the neighborhoods built along side of it. It increases the value of the homes and keeps the noise level down in the neighborhoods.

I lived just outside of Moore Oklahoma (Graduated from Moore High School) and visit the area occasionally to see friends. Overall, they don't have a lot of similar barriers in that region to keep noise down in the neighborhoods along I35. I think it just comes down to cost.

I can't see these "walls" being helpful in a significant tornado.
You really need to be underground.

Quoting 131. georgevandenberghe:



Nitrous Oxide forms nitric acid in the presence of water and comes down in the rain. It is a significant term in the nitrogen cycle and the lightning created levels are not a pollutant. I don't know much about the chemistry of low level Ozone other than that it is a pollutant for people and a significant damaging threat for U.S. cropland some years.



Sorry about the delay in responding, but I haven't been on for a while. As far as I know, it's nitrogen dioxide which is water soluble, and forms the nitric acid component of acid rain. Nitrous oxide isn't water soluble. It's pretty unreactive, and persists in the atmosphere for many decades.

All NOx species are created directly by lightning, and also indirectly in forest fires.
Quoting 402. ACSeattle:


? The rest of the nation isn't getting pounded. The west coast is so warm ski areas are shutting down. The lower Ohio Valley is in a record snow drought


My bad; you are correct. I meant to say some parts................................... :)
Quoting 376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



dead of winter approaches

If it's a deep trough over the east it must be 10 days out on the GFS
first advisory from New Zealand on NIKO.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE NIKO (06F)
7:00 AM NZDT January 24 2015
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone NIko (994 hPa) located at 25.3S 145.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots, close to the center. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in sector from north through east to northeast
90 NM from the center in the southeast semi-circle
45 NM from the center in sector from southwest through northwest to north
Quoting 406. weathermanwannabe:



My bad; you are correct. I meant to say some parts................................... :)
we got nothing here for snow on the ground either had to clear snow 3 times this winter once in nov twice in dec so far nothing in January
Quoting washingtonian115:
I just have to believe it to see it.


You're bound to get a good one eventually. I lived in the D.C. area for about 16 years and I remember about 4 or 5 really good snow storms.
Quoting 407. ACSeattle:


If it's a deep trough over the east it must be 10 days out on the GFS

take with a grain of salt it will change a hundred times before we get there
The Southeast winter storm that the GFS was showing for several days is gone with the 12z run (which isn't that surprising, medium/long range solutions will waiver; I'm impressed by how long it was consistent to begin with). The overall pattern is classic for significant wintry weather across the Southeast, but the area of low pressure that supplies the moisture on the GFS is shunted south into the central Gulf of Mexico by the magnitude of cold air being forecast.

Regardless of wintry weather prospects, February should start off Frigid for the nation east of the Rockies. 12z ECMWF 850mb temp anomalies:

Quoting 403. Climate175:

Does't Feb 2nd mark the midway point between winter and spring?
feb 12 or 13th I think is the midway point between winter and spring






NewOrleans/Slidell NWS disco

Heaviest rain has moved out oft he area...with generally only
light to occasionally moderate rain occurring across the MS coast
and extreme southeast Louisiana. Despite the surface low moving
away...moisture wrapping around the back side of the low will keep
probability of precipitation elevated at least through the first half of today as the
upper trough axis approaches the local area. Probability of precipitation will be highest
during the morning hours...gradually tapering off late this
afternoon and tonight as the upper trough helps push drier high
pressure into the area. Additional rainfall should remain fairly
light with area average accumulations of less than one quarter
inch.

Thick cloud cover and cold air advection behind the low will keep
daytime highs well below normal across the area today. Forecast
highs are generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s across southeast
Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Cold air advection continues
into tonight with temperatures remaining below normal. Lows generally
forecast in the middle 30s north and upper 30s to lower 40s south.
For Saturday...clouds will finally clear and under full
sunshine...temperatures should recover into the middle 50s. Coldest night
will be Saturday night when clear skies...light winds and low
dewpoints will allow for efficient radiative cooling. Model
guidance has come in a few degrees warmer with this run...but am
carrying temperatures slightly below guidance knowing that the overnight
lows have been outperforming guidance behind the last few systems.
No freezing temperatures currently in the forecast...but a few isolated
places along/north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor could get
close or briefly touch the 32 degree mark.

High pressure will be reinforced for the first part of the week as
another upper short wave passes through the local area Sunday
evening and Sunday night. Won't be anything in the way of moisture
for this short wave to work with...so am not carrying any mention
of precipitation as it passes through. Local area remains under influence
of northwest flow aloft through at least Wednesday with temperatures near
or below normal for the period. Late in the work week...the
pattern begins to break down and this is where models begin to
diverge from each other.

Euro brings short wave and cold front through the lower
Mississippi Valley late Friday while GFS is less aggressive. By
contrast...it flattens out the short wave with the cold front
never making it through the local area. Regardless of which
solution is closer to the truth...both agree that next rain
chance won't come until at least next Friday or Saturday.
Surface charts, they still do make them.
If you don't mind the wind and chop, the Gulf Coast beaches should have some ride-able waves this afternoon into Sunday. You might want to find a jetty to block the current (current out of the south today switching over to the north this weekend). Eastcoast should have plenty of waves but the same issues with the wind.
Docslist, SE LA region, Bayou Cane / Houma LA -

* For Sale to highest bidder: 3.86" Rain
* Description -- Genuine rain, guaranteed as freshly-harvested locally, less than 24 hrs old, never used / mint condition.
* I'm only selling it since my current supply is abundant.
* Special offer: free to needy SoCal residents, pay for shipping only!
* Caution, organic product - filter before use as may contain detritus, microbial bacteria, insect larvae, or live crawfish.

* PS Note: look for my other ad, also overstocked this winter - selling clouds at low, low, discounted prices - too low to publish!
* Will consider equal trade for cloud-free product, thanks.



Wrightsville Beach may be looking good tomorrow, albeit a wee bit chilly.

Quoting 419. Sfloridacat5:

If you don't mind the wind and chop, the Gulf Coast beaches should have some ride-able waves this afternoon into Sunday. You might want to find a jetty to block the current (current out of the south today switching over to the north this weekend). Eastcoast should have plenty of waves but the same issues with the wind.

I think the south will see snow/rain mix Feb 1st-3rd. 40-60% probable.

Look what the GEM Model has.

Earlier GFS.

The trough that may cause it with the moisture.

WOW EURO.
Quoting Patrap:
Surface charts, they still do make them.


Comment #375
Quoting 410. Sfloridacat5:



You're bound to get a good one eventually. I lived in the D.C. area for about 16 years and I remember about 4 or 5 really good snow storms.
Not this winter.
GFS little weaker but there.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Not this winter.


It's funny you said that because several of the best snow storms I can remember were in December.
Issued by The National Weather Service update!!
New York City, NY
Fri, Jan 23, 4:11 am EST
... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXTURE OF SNOW... SLEET... AND FREEZING RAIN... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY.
* LOCATIONS... PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY... AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD TYPES... SNOW AND ICE.
* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES... WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* VISIBILITIES... 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN SNOW... MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
* TIMING... SNOW BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW... LIKELY MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN... WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THE EVENING.
* IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISBILITIES AND SNOW/ICE COVERED ROADS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET... OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
&&


update more snow!!! ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES.
Quoting 394. PedleyCA:



Lake Travis up .51 in last 30 days. Source:

Well, that means only 56.95 more feet to go!
Quoting 394. PedleyCA:



Lake Travis up .51 in last 30 days. Source:


Yep mainly both Medina lake and Travis haven't recovered since the peak of the drought. Historical graphs defiantly have shown they have had major ups and downs, they just haven't had anything like this last this long besides maybe the 50s... It concerns me greatly that if we get another major drought this year or the next that they could nearly dry out...

Medina


Travis


Quoting 414. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

feb 12 or 13th I think is the midway point between winter and spring
Groundhog Day is the cross-quarter day between Winter Solstice and Spring Equinox, so technically it's half way between the first day of Winter and the first day of Spring, but Ma doesn't care.
Quoting 435. hydrus:




Certainly not the first time i've seen that this winter... I'll believe it when I see it. :)
18z NAM buries NOVA and everyone south of the Mason-Dixon line with the clipper on Monday. Trending south to be more inline with the Global model consensus.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Official Subtropical depression in south Atlantic. According to Brazil Navy.
Quoting 427. washingtonian115:

Not this winter.
You never know Washi. You never know until you know.

In the mean time do you want me to do a snow dance?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
402 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2015

...Heavy Rain and Marginal Threat for Severe Weather Now Limited to
the Southeast Florida Big Bend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
At upper levels, a positively-tilted trough was approaching the
Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon with diffluent flow aloft
out ahead of it across the Southeast. Surface analysis shows low
pressure centered over the western FL Panhandle with a warm front
extending northeastward from it into South GA. Much of the region
has already seen heavy rain today with 2.5-4 inch totals common
south of I-10. A few spots across the coastal counties received in
excess of 5 inches. While a few flooding reports have been received,
the heaviest rain has moved east of the flash flood watch area. We
therefore have cancelled the watch. Southeast portions of the FL Big
Bend are still in the heavy rain band, but are only expected to see
storm totals in the 2-3 inch range. This should not be sufficient to
produce flash flooding. Ponding of water on roadways and poor
drainage areas is a more likely scenario. Severe storms have thus
far remained offshore in the form of isolated supercells. It is
likely that several of these produced tornadic waterspouts, but in
all cases the circulation weakened before making it ashore. There is
still a marginal risk for severe storms coming in off the Gulf of
Mexico into Dixie County.
443. vis0

Quoting 309. hydrus:

Yep..and Steven Hawking was quoted as saying “If the rate of expansion one second after the big bang had been smaller by even one part in a hundred thousand million million, the universe would have re-collapsed before it ever reached its present size. Someone or something had a very good math skills..:)
or there are many smaller (in loudness or coverage) "big bangs" that are too small to flourish so those do not become uni-verses, but future problems for scientist/"mathematician"(s) to solve. And do not forget the big bangs that were TOO big as they meet the too small ones, so that the mathematician has a place to study them from.

or i could be 99%** wrong.

**By not stating i'm 100% wrong nor right, i then fall under 99% and guarantee i'll never be 100% incorrect, try that U.S Reps & Sen'rs (heard some Reps & Senators of all sides over the years say they're 100% correct on
444. vis0

Quoting 404. Sfloridacat5:



Down here in my area, I75 has large walls separating it from the neighborhoods built along side of it. It increases the value of the homes and keeps the noise level down in the neighborhoods.

I lived just outside of Moore Oklahoma (Graduated from Moore High School) and visit the area occasionally to see friends. Overall, they don't have a lot of similar barriers in that region to keep noise down in the neighborhoods along I35. I think it just comes down to cost.

I can't see these "walls" being helpful in a significant tornado.
You really need to be underground.


Maybe?, Noise prevention walls built w/ tax breaks for (WEather) insurance reasons?
445. vis0

Quoting 420. DocNDswamp:

Docslist, SE LA region, Bayou Cane / Houma LA -

* For Sale to highest bidder: 3.86" Rain
* Description -- Genuine rain, guaranteed as freshly-harvested locally, less than 24 hrs old, never used / mint condition.
* I'm only selling it since my current supply is abundant.
* Special offer: free to needy SoCal residents, pay for shipping only!
* Caution, organic product - filter before use as may contain detritus, microbial bacteria, insect larvae, or live crawfish.

* PS Note: look for my other ad, also overstocked this winter - selling clouds at low, low, discounted prices - too low to publish!
* Will consider equal trade for cloud-free product, thanks.



$40 BUCKS PER INCH THAT'S A STEEP  PRICE!, that is the price chart on the left?  ...wish it was really deliverable for the people out ~west or anywhere in  the world that needs water.
446. vis0
see what happens when you make too many remarks, i forgot to post my wISIT of the week, it is mentioned a few comments before Dr. Master update cmmnt, Brazilian TS ??
awsome photo!!