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Floods Kill at Least 260 in Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar

By: Jeff Masters 4:35 PM GMT on January 19, 2015

In what is likely to be one of 2015's deadliest natural disasters, two weeks of heavy rains have hit the southeastern African nations of Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar, triggering rampaging floods that have killed at least 260 people and left 260,000 homeless, said Bloomberg News today. Hardest hit was Malawi, where 176 people are dead or missing and 200,000 homeless. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, only one other flood disaster has killed more people in Malawi: the floods of March 10, 1991, with a death toll of 472. That flood was also the most expensive weather-related natural disaster in their history, with damages estimated at $24 million (1991 dollars.) The floods of 2015 may be ten times more expensive: last week, Malawi requested humanitarian assistance of $430 million for recovery efforts. Many areas remain cut off, with aid workers struggling to provide food to the hardest-hit southern portion of the country. The heaviest rains in Malawi came on January 13, when Chileka, Malawi measured 6.57" (167 mm) of rain in 24 hours. The tropical disturbance that spawned these heavy rains moved over Mozambique on January 14, triggering flooding that killed at least 71 people there. The next day, the disturbance moved over the Mozambique Channel between Mozambique and Madagascar, becoming Tropical Storm Chedza, which hit Madagascar on January 16, killing 13 people on the island. Ocean temperatures were up to 0.6°C (1.0°F) above average in the Mozambique Channel, which contributed to the high rainfall rates observed with Chedza and its precursor disturbance.


Figure 1. A bridge destroyed by flooding at Nchalo in Chikwawa, Malawi, the week of January 13, 2015. Image credit: Source: Department of Disaster Management Affairs, Malawi.


Figure 2. VIIRS image from January 13, 2015 showing a tropical disturbance over Malawi that would later become Tropical Storm Chedza (left side of image.) Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Bansi is seen to the east of Madagascar (right side of image.) Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments




That 8-10% of added Water Vapor from a 1F rise in Global Average Temps from Fossil Fuel burning makes these events more common.

Fuel to ponder as the warming continues, unabated.

Have a nice week!
thanx doc......a blogger mentioned this on saturday and was afraid it would not get much coverage.....glad you picked up on it
from the last blog.....

Quoting 276. Skyepony:



It's also important to consider the weather before getting too excited.. as that can change the daily value radically & why really the average is more important overall when determining the strength of an ENSO event..

Check out what it right next to Darwin today & has got the daily SOI in such a negative state.. This should be our next storm to follow.

94S




exactly sky...but some are more agenda driven....makes it hard to see the big picture
Thank you for the post Dr. Masters.
The first picture of the bridge shows quite clearly how a simple improvement from a humans point of view for crossing a river can lead to a big problem.
The brush and trees swept away by the storm waters pile against the bridge and block the water from passing, so the water goes round the bridge and washes the approaches away.

Simple solutions to crossing rivers often cause these kinds of problems in downpours.

There a strong possibility a Pat pointed out of a lot more heavy downpours like this with the added water vapour content in the atmosphere its not something which is going to decrease after all.
We will probably see this kind of disaster a lot more in the next few years unfortunatly.
Thanks Doc.

Wxrisk.com
9 hrs ·
*** NOTIFICATION*** models bringing back-- revving - JAN 23-24 SE US LOW.... now show a much more developed Low and closer to the coast. The 2 maps here are from the early Monday AM European and Canadian Models .
Both of these Models show a MISS for eastern NC and se VA for JAN 23 ....BUT it is close. It would not take Much of a shift of the Low track to the nw for these areas to see moderate to significant snow fall. At this time there is NO reason to get excited Just yet but it definitely deserves watching
Ocean Life Faces Mass Extinction, Broad Study Says
JAN. 15, 2015


A team of scientists, in a groundbreaking analysis of data from hundreds of sources, has concluded that humans are on the verge of causing unprecedented damage to the oceans and the animals living in them.

“We may be sitting on a precipice of a major extinction event,” said Douglas J. McCauley, an ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and an author of the new research, which was published on Thursday in the journal Science.

But there is still time to avert catastrophe, Dr. McCauley and his colleagues also found. Compared with the continents, the oceans are mostly intact, still wild enough to bounce back to ecological health.

“We’re lucky in many ways,” said Malin L. Pinsky, a marine biologist at Rutgers University and another author of the new report. “The impacts are accelerating, but they’re not so bad we can’t reverse them.”


Scientific assessments of the oceans’ health are dogged by uncertainty: It’s much harder for researchers to judge the well-being of a species living underwater, over thousands of miles, than to track the health of a species on land. And changes that scientists observe in particular ocean ecosystems may not reflect trends across the planet.

Dr. Pinsky, Dr. McCauley and their colleagues sought a clearer picture of the oceans’ health by pulling together data from an enormous range of sources, from discoveries in the fossil record to statistics on modern container shipping, fish catches and seabed mining. While many of the findings already existed, they had never been juxtaposed in such a way.

A number of experts said the result was a remarkable synthesis, along with a nuanced and encouraging prognosis.

“I see this as a call for action to close the gap between conservation on land and in the sea,” said Loren McClenachan of Colby College, who was not involved in the study.

There are clear signs already that humans are harming the oceans to a remarkable degree, the scientists found. Some ocean species are certainly overharvested, but even greater damage results from large-scale habitat loss, which is likely to accelerate as technology advances the human footprint, the scientists reported.

...more,
As usual, mine was the last post before the new blog, so I've copied it over here.

Quoting ACSeattle:

9 hours ago, jb tweeted "brutal cold still in store last week of month for east ". Let's see how that pans out first. Last week he took credit for a spike in natural gas prices, which is kinda odd, seeing how much he adds to the supply. His ideological soup is evidently attractive to some. Let's see if traders are still willing to put their money where his mouth is going forward

JB took credit for the recent four day spike in nat gas prices? What a joke. Big time traders have their own mets on contract to look for cold waves, and it ain't JB. WSI, the commodity forecasting arm of TWC, has really been hyping cold waves all this month and is hyping another one for late January into February. So far, they've been mostly wrong, but it's pretty clear they have some big clients who are getting burned on the long side and WSI is trying to rescue them. Nat gas prices went up last week because there were some bets that supply would come down because of the real cold we had at beginning of January, plus some technical action due to short covering and options expiration. I got in a day too late and exited a day too early but still made some money. Nat gas is coming down again because it turns out supply didn't drop and our cold wave wasn't all that bad. It's down another 4.5% today last I looked. We need a prolonged and severe Arctic air outbreak to really move nat gas and I don't see that by the end of the month.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ICY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED PAVED SURFACES ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING. PLEASE BE CAREFUL IF DRIVING OR WALKING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER COULD BRING AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOST
AFFECTED. THE GREATER IMPACT IS LEANING TOWARD THE EVENING COMMUTE
ON WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LOOK FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND INFORMATION
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Thanks Dr Masters!
Quoting 9. sar2401:

As usual, mine was the last post before the new blog, so I've copied it over here.

Quoting ACSeattle:

9 hours ago, jb tweeted "brutal cold still in store last week of month for east ". Let's see how that pans out first. Last week he took credit for a spike in natural gas prices, which is kinda odd, seeing how much he adds to the supply. His ideological soup is evidently attractive to some. Let's see if traders are still willing to put their money where his mouth is going forward

JB took credit for the recent four day spike in nat gas prices? What a joke. Big time traders have their own mets on contract to look for cold waves, and it ain't JB. WSI, the commodity forecasting arm of TWC, has really been hyping cold waves all this month and is hyping another one for late January into February. So far, they've been mostly wrong, but it's pretty clear they have some big clients who are getting burned on the long side and WSI is trying to rescue them. Nat gas prices went up last week because there were some bets that supply would come down because of the real cold we had at beginning of January, plus some technical action due to short covering and options expiration. I got in a day too late and exited a day too early but still made some money. Nat gas is coming down again because it turns out supply didn't drop and our cold wave wasn't all that bad. It's down another 4.5% today last I looked. We need a prolonged and severe Arctic air outbreak to really move nat gas and I don't see that by the end of the month.

I wonder if the day will ever come when his enablers at faux news cease to play along
"We had no warning...


Malaysia reviews devastation after floods




Can we get Pork Bellies outlook for week ending 1-23 ?

tia

279. HaoleboySurfEC
5:21 PM GMT on January 19, 2015

Quoting Haole

"Exactly the spot I was thinking about. That's too funny. Maile, Nanakuli (Choo choo) will all be going off, but have had several close calls with the local contingency out that way. Got some good head high beach break yesterday in NC, but can't compare. I've once seen a winter west swell wrap all the way into Ala Moana beach park.

Charge 'em brah!"

Howzit! Jealous you got wet this weekend. Since we became heritage pork farmers and opened our farm store, we don't get much water time.

The Jetty could pack every bit of power that the North shore could for it size. I spent a minute held down on the bottom in that inside whirlpool one time, looking up my leash towards the surface. We used to drive up in the dark and if it was firing we could hear it and paddle out. We learned to keep a hand in the water - you could feel the water start to move before you saw an outside set start to pop up. If you weren't paddlin to get outside by the time you could see the bump - you were doomed....
Malawi is one of those countries that doesn't work well on a good day let alone when there's floods. While I feel for the people of Malawi, we have to be careful about how we provide humanitarian aid. Malawi is a country with over 16 million people jammed into a land area about equal to Indiana. Most of the people there are subsistence farmers that grow tobacco on small plots. The political history of Malawi since independence in 1964 is authoritarian governments and endemic corruption. Great Britain and the United States have stopped supplying Malawi with normal commercial aid due to the human rights record of the government. An example of the type of continuing corruption is the $20 million presidential jet story. This aircraft, in a country with only one airport where it can land, was purchased with money diverted from Britain's foreign aid that was supposed to be used for infrastructure improvement. $20 million probably could have built a more flood resistant bridge than what we see in that picture. Now Malawi want $430 million in humanitarian aid. If donor countries and NGO's don't do a better job of controlling their aid money than they've done in the past, almost none of the humanitarian aid will ever reach the people.

EDIT: Just one example of why rescue work in Malawi is different - Flood victims won't leave their land.
Quoting 14. Patrap:

Can we get Pork Bellies outlook for week ending 1-23 ?

tia


We sell em for $8/lb! Not sure what the CBOT contracts go for though ;-)

I heard chicken wings go up a bunch during the playoffs and Super Bowl!
Noting what SAR has to say at:-
16. sar2401

This kind of diverted aid story is a world problem and whichever way you look at it, the story comes down to if you send money, it gets stolen, if you send food it gets stolen and sold.
If you send people, they have so many obstacles in their way they can't work.

A lot of these disaster problems are caused by people being in the wrong place to cope with floods, volcanoes, hurricanes etc.
There is no easy or practical solution other than education and forward planning but that probably is not going to happen.

Climate changes will only make things worse.

Meanwhile Pat put up a video at post 13, from Malaysia where the had 35 meters of floods!
Quoting ACSeattle:

I wonder if the day will ever come when his enablers at faux news cease to play along
I don't think so. CNBC gives an open platform for WSI to sell their story (and services). JB just has the right political views and says enough nutty things that he fits in with Fox. Every media outlet, left, right, and center, sells their own story and has their own "stars". That's what makes the internet so great. It's not controlled by anyone (yet), and you can sift through a lot of garbage and arrive at some semblance of the truth. I shudder to think of the days when Walter Cronkite controlled almost the entire national agenda.
Quoting sar2401:
Malawi is one of those countries that doesn't work well on a good day let alone when there's floods. While I feel for the people of Malawi, we have to be careful about how we provide humanitarian aid. Malawi is a country with over 16 million people jammed into a land area about equal to Indiana. Most of the people there are subsistence farmers that grow tobacco on small plots. The political history of Malawi since independence in 1964 is authoritarian governments and endemic corruption. Great Britain and the United States have stopped supplying Malawi with normal commercial aid due to the human rights record of the government. An example of the type of continuing corruption is the $20 million presidential jet story. This aircraft, in a country with only one airport where it can land, was purchased with money diverted from Britain's foreign aid that was supposed to be used for infrastructure improvement. $20 million probably could have built a more flood resistant bridge than what we see in that picture. Now Malawi want $430 million in humanitarian aid. If donor countries and NGO's don't do a better job of controlling their aid money than they've done in the past, almost none of the humanitarian aid will ever reach the people.
We should use caution, yes. And a lot of aid funds to certain countries have been diverted for unintended--and sometimes nefarious--purposes. But denying humanitarian aid to suffering people simply because of corruption or politics is decidedly inhumane. And right now, some of those people are suffering. Heavily.

Let's given them the money, and not gripe and whine that the powers that be might misuse some of it.
Quoting FarmerKarl:


We sell em for $8/lb! Not sure what the CBOT contracts go for though ;-)

I heard chicken wings go up a bunch during the playoffs and Super Bowl!
LOL. You farmers are just too unpredictable to play pork bellies. Apparently, some posters can't distinguish between natural gas and pork bellies.
Seems the ones up on the Mount,want to express their worldy "vision's" on Disaster relief now?

Phunny as well we get no Link or other to back up these,"vision's".

My, my,,, ReliefWEB does a good job, but that never gets press.

Well save for here..by "some".





Todays updates.


Southern Africa: Floods and Cyclones Update (as of 15 Jan 2015)

MAP from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs


Malawi

According to preliminary information, an estimated 75,000 people (15,000
households) have been displaced by weeks of heavy rains in Malawi, and
this number is expected to increase.
About 1,000 people were rescued from isolated areas yesterday, 14
January, as more boats arrived from the Malawi Defence Force and clear
weather allowed operations to be stepped up. The (local) cluster system
has been activated, and the Vice President has requested all clusters to
submit their response plan today, 15 January; some clusters have already
done so. Government will be establishing emergency operations centres in
Blantyre, Lilongwe and Mzuzu, and ramping up preparedness efforts in the
north of the country where more rains are forecasted over the coming
week. Over the longer term, normal to above-normal rains are predicted for
the January-to-March period over the whole country.

Madagascar

The tropical cyclone forming in the Mozambique Channel is continuing on
its trajectory toward the east of Madagascar, and is expected to intensify
and make landfall on 16 January. Current high water levels across the
country, including around the capital Antananarivo, could exacerbate the
impact of the system, which will be named Chedza. Many models are
predicting that Chedza will cross Madagascar fairly quickly, only to
reorganize itself and move rapidly towards Reunion Island and Mauritius by
18 January.

A multi-agency team, together with a team from the Civil Protection Corps,
is scheduled to deploy today, 15 January, to Morondava. A second team is
expected to deploy tomorrow, 16 January, with their destination dependant
on the evolution of the system. Response plans are also being developed
for Antananarivo.
Well, some people said Louisiana was ripe with fraud and not to send aid after Katrina. Is there a history of fraud in LA? Sure. Was there fraud associated w/ Katrina? Yes. But, a lot of cleanup and re-building happened due to government aid that was sent. And a lot of the immediate needs were met by the local/state/federal governments, as well as NGOs.

Some people said not to aid the East Coast after Sandy...for similar reasons.

Right now in Mozambique and Malawi the immediate concerns are food, water and shelter. Many people there have lost their homes, their livestock, and any food they had stored. Aid organizations (e.g., UNICEF) are on the ground, attempting to address their immediate needs.

There has been some mention in the press that planning efforts in Mozambique may have mitigated some of the impacts, but I haven't seen anything on that in depth as of yet.

Hopefully the presence of fraud and 'shady' types don't inhibit those who want to assist. Those people will always be around, unfortunately...and their presence doesn't negate the need for the international community to render assistance.
From BBC News (video):

Malawi reeling as swathes submerged
19 January 2015 Last updated at 04:34 GMT
More than 170 people have been killed and 200,000 displaced by torrential rain and flooding in Malawi.
Large areas in the south are underwater and homes, crops and livestock have been washed away.
The continuing rain is making rescue operations difficult.

David Campanale reports.
Malaysia Floods: Worst Flooding In Decades, 160000 Flee Their Homes(VIDEO)


Quoting 24. hurricanes2018:




That little spot of rain over western Kansas looks rather lonely.
Apparently the National Weather Service office in Nashville, Tennessee used aerial images from Google Earth to determine that an EF0 tornado touched down this morning.

As far as I know, there weren't any storms in the area...?

Quoting LAbonbon:
Well, some people said Louisiana was ripe with fraud and not to send aid after Katrina. Is there a history of fraud in LA? Sure. Was there fraud associated w/ Katrina? Yes. But, a lot of cleanup and re-building happened due to government aid that was sent. And a lot of the immediate needs were met by the local/state/federal governments, as well as NGOs.

Some people said not to aid the East Coast after Sandy...for similar reasons.

Right now in Mozambique and Malawi the immediate concerns are food, water and shelter. Many people there have lost their homes, their livestock, and any food they had stored. Aid organizations (e.g., UNICEF) are on the ground, attempting to address their immediate needs.

There has been some mention in the press that planning efforts in Mozambique may have mitigated some of the impacts, but I haven't seen anything on that in depth as of yet.

Hopefully the presence of fraud and 'shady' types don't inhibit those who want to assist. Those people will always be around, unfortunately...and their presence doesn't negate the need for the international community to render assistance.
The level of fraud in any state in this country compared to Malawi is apples and oranges. In Louisiana, the vast majority of the aid got to those who needed it, with some skimmed off the top. In Malawi, the vast majority of the aid given to the government will be stolen and almost none of it will get to the people. Aid money that goes directly to NGO's like UNICEF are a great thing, since the government doesn't get their hands on much of it. Lump sum humanitarian aid from foreign government donors usually goes directly to the government, and that's the problem. That money is mostly used to strengthen an authoritarian government, and the people end up even worse off. The developed world is relatively wealthy, and we rightly feel sympathy in the face of disasters in poor countries. Unfortunately, our people sometimes measure sympathy with the amount of money handed out, with no regard to where it ends up. My point is not to send aid because of corruption, but to target aid through channels other than the government.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Apparently the National Weather Service office in Nashville, Tennessee used aerial images from Google Earth to determine that an EF0 tornado touched down this morning.

As far as I know, there weren't any storms in the area...?

That must be some kind of test using Google Earth for damage assessment. There were no storms of any kind near Nashville and the SPC has zero storm reports for yesterday or today.
Thanks for covering that (for us ) local weather disaster Dr Masters. Things really are dire up north with the existing poor infrastructure now essentially unserviceable. Some teams have left South Africa to help but their impact will be limited. As two of the worlds poorest countries Malawi and Mozambique certainly need all the help the world can send.
Quoting 31. sar2401:

The level of fraud in any state in this country compared to Malawi is apples and oranges. In Louisiana, the vast majority of the aid got to those who needed it, with some skimmed off the top. In Malawi, the vast majority of the aid given to the government will be stolen and almost none of it will get to the people. Aid money that goes directly to NGO's like UNICEF are a great thing, since the government doesn't get their hands on much of it. Lump sum humanitarian aid from foreign government donors usually goes directly to the government, and that's the problem. That money is mostly used to strengthen an authoritarian government, and the people end up even worse off. The developed world is relatively wealthy, and we rightly feel sympathy in the face of disasters in poor countries. Unfortunately, our people sometimes measure sympathy with the amount of money handed out, with no regard to where it ends up. My point is not to send aid because of corruption, but to target aid through channels other than the government.

That is such bosh. The government of Malawi is new and struggling. To claim it and Mozambique are corrupt overlooks a central point - that corruptors need corruptees. And there seem to be plenty of those in the west. Last year Africa was drained of billions of dollars not only by locals but by those seeking to corrupt and exploit. Open your eyes to what is really going on.

Wxrisk.com
13 mins ·
** ALERT *** woof ... 12Z EURO MODEL ..12Z CANADIAN nd the 12z GFS ensembles (to a lessor degree ) ....all SHIFT the LOW off the SE US COAST FURTHER NW .. again.. BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO CENTRAL VA / CENTRAL NC and lower MD eastern shore ..and rain and or snow to se VA and eastern NC
DOES THIS A BIG SNOWSTORM FOR EAST COAST? ?
1. This is rapidly Changing situation. The TREND over the past 3 model cycles is for this low to come "Up the coast " BUT because of the Upper air pattern over Noth America it can only come so far North. This Low isnt going to Cape Cod or the benchmark ( 40N and 70 W).
2. this is NOT 10 days out or 7 days .. its 5 days and closing FAST. keep in Mind The forecasts have to be OUT there by JAN 23... today is the 19th... so do the math
3 this event does have the support of MJO which is currently in Phase 8 (weak phase 8) which in JAN/ FEB / MAR is one of the east coast snowstorm phases
4 Low level temps are marginal . This means right near the ground it might be 34 and snow/ rain mix which does not accumulate
Quoting 1. Patrap:




That 8-10% of added Water Vapor from a 1F rise in Global Average Temps from Fossil Fuel burning makes these events more common.

Fuel to ponder as the warming continues, unabated.

Have a nice week!

Yeah, like those major hurricanes that were supposed to be hitting the US every other week after the 2005 season......
12z NAVGEM continues to show a big storm Fri-Sat.
Quoting 27. Gearsts:




Let's see if the warm areas in the Western Pacific creep eastward with time to get a certain person happy.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting what SAR has to say at:-
16. sar2401

This kind of diverted aid story is a world problem and whichever way you look at it, the story comes down to if you send money, it gets stolen, if you send food it gets stolen and sold.
If you send people, they have so many obstacles in their way they can't work.

A lot of these disaster problems are caused by people being in the wrong place to cope with floods, volcanoes, hurricanes etc.
There is no easy or practical solution other than education and forward planning but that probably is not going to happen.

Climate changes will only make things worse.

Meanwhile Pat put up a video at post 13, from Malaysia where the had 35 meters of floods!
Unfortunately, everything you write is true. The best answer for individuals is to send money directly to reliable NGO's like UNICEF and the Red Cross/Crescent. For governments like the US and Britain, sending aid using the military at least assures that the most vital supplies gets to the people early on in the crisis. It's much more difficult to steal things from the Marines than it is from a local aid organization. The United States military has a tremendous capacity to provide humanitarian aid if we would just get organized to use it.
Quoting Climate175:
12z NAVGEM continues to show a big storm Fri-Sat.


This week's storm drops snow from north of DC up the coast. Then another storm drops snow on the S.E. next week.
Subject to change of course.
Quoting 38. Tropicsweatherpr:



Let's see if the warm areas in the Western Pacific creep eastward with time to get a certain person happy.
LOL
Quoting ekogaia:

That is such bosh. The government of Malawi is new and struggling. To claim it and Mozambique are corrupt overlooks a central point - that corruptors need corruptees. And there seem to be plenty of those in the west. Last year Africa was drained of billions of dollars not only by locals but by those seeking to corrupt and exploit. Open your eyes to what is really going on.
Firstly, I never mentioned Mozambique. Secondly, the old colonialism justifies corruption argument is really bosh. Malawi has been independent for 50 years, and its record of corruption stands on its own. The subject here is getting aid to people in need. If you can tell me how that can be reliably done using the facilities of the Malawi government, I'm all ears.
Quoting 36. opal92nwf:


Yeah, like those major hurricanes that were supposed to be hitting the US every other week after the 2005 season......


Not one single study ever said that was to be the case. You are taking what sensationalist news articles produced and taking it out on the science. That's the equivalent of kicking your cat when the dog barks at the mailman.
Quoting sar2401:
Unfortunately, everything you write is true. The best answer for individuals is to send money directly to reliable NGO's like UNICEF and the Red Cross/Crescent. For governments like the US and Britain, sending aid using the military at least assures that the most vital supplies gets to the people early on in the crisis. It's much more difficult to steal things from the Marines than it is from a local aid organization. The United States military has a tremendous capacity to provide humanitarian aid if we would just get organized to use it.


How welcome would U.S. troops be in that area? Wouldn't want to see another Mogadishu.
That all started over providing aid to starving Somalians but none of the aid was getting to the people.
Not an apples to apples comparison, but I doubt the U.S. would want to put boots on the ground.
Quoting Gearsts:
LOL


In the previous blog (earlier today), he was all over it. He has a direct line to the slightest changes in the Pacific.

Quoting 38. Tropicsweatherpr:



Let's see if the warm areas in the Western Pacific creep eastward with time to get a certain person happy.

What won't be good for the El Nino is if this upcoming Upwelling KW is prolonged enough to bring up the cooler than normal subsurface waters just below the remaining warm pocket.
Quite a warm Pacific Ocean at the moment...
Things are looking pretty good almost everywhere in the US. It's a nice change of pace.



Quoting 43. Naga5000:



Not one single study ever said that was to be the case. You are taking what sensationalist news articles produced and taking it out on the science. That's the equivalent of kicking your cat when the dog barks at the mailman.

That's also animal abuse. ;)

Quoting 32. sar2401:

That must be some kind of test using Google Earth for damage assessment. There were no storms of any kind near Nashville and the SPC has zero storm reports for yesterday or today.

Yeah, not confirmed.

Link
Quoting 8. Patrap:

Ocean Life Faces Mass Extinction, Broad Study Says
JAN. 15, 2015


A team of scientists, in a groundbreaking analysis of data from hundreds of sources, has concluded that humans are on the verge of causing unprecedented damage to the oceans and the animals living in them.

“We may be sitting on a precipice of a major extinction event,” said Douglas J. McCauley, an ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and an author of the new research, which was published on Thursday in the journal Science.

But there is still time to avert catastrophe, Dr. McCauley and his colleagues also found. Compared with the continents, the oceans are mostly intact, still wild enough to bounce back to ecological health.

“We’re lucky in many ways,” said Malin L. Pinsky, a marine biologist at Rutgers University and another author of the new report. “The impacts are accelerating, but they’re not so bad we can’t reverse them.”


Scientific assessments of the oceans’ health are dogged by uncertainty: It’s much harder for researchers to judge the well-being of a species living underwater, over thousands of miles, than to track the health of a species on land. And changes that scientists observe in particular ocean ecosystems may not reflect trends across the planet.

Dr. Pinsky, Dr. McCauley and their colleagues sought a clearer picture of the oceans’ health by pulling together data from an enormous range of sources, from discoveries in the fossil record to statistics on modern container shipping, fish catches and seabed mining. While many of the findings already existed, they had never been juxtaposed in such a way.

A number of experts said the result was a remarkable synthesis, along with a nuanced and encouraging prognosis.

“I see this as a call for action to close the gap between conservation on land and in the sea,” said Loren McClenachan of Colby College, who was not involved in the study.

There are clear signs already that humans are harming the oceans to a remarkable degree, the scientists found. Some ocean species are certainly overharvested, but even greater damage results from large-scale habitat loss, which is likely to accelerate as technology advances the human footprint, the scientists reported.

...more,


I couldn't agree more but there is no multi-government move to address this and, with the Congress the way it is performing and the anti-science opinions that are rife, there will be no meaningful action on the part of the US.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


This week's storm drops snow from north of DC up the coast. Then another storm drops snow on the S.E. next week.
Subject to change of course.
The GFS is showing almost exactly the same snow pattern for the 29th as it was showing last week for the 22nd. Now it's pretty much backed off all the storms except for the Gulf low, and even that is looking sheared. The "new" GFS isn't giving me a lot of confidence at this point.
Quoting 38. Tropicsweatherpr:



Let's see if the warm areas in the Western Pacific creep eastward with time to get a certain person happy.
Him and California too.
54. vis0

Quoting 7. washingtonian115:


Wxrisk.com
9 hrs ·
*** NOTIFICATION*** models bringing back-- revving - JAN 23-24 SE US LOW.... now show a much more developed Low and closer to the coast. The 2 maps here are from the early Monday AM European and Canadian Models .
Both of these Models show a MISS for eastern NC and se VA for JAN 23 ....BUT it is close. It would not take Much of a shift of the Low track to the nw for these areas to see moderate to significant snow fall. At this time there is NO reason to get excited Just yet but it definitely deserves watching
NOT ANYTHING OFFICIAL ITS MY OPINION:: Pay attn everyone, as its seems as this month of Jan2015 (really a 2 month period began late Dec 2014 till ~2nd week of Feb2014)  the wxTrend TO ME seems as nature is spinning fronts into LOWs, a bit more as we head into Feb. If the conditions are that surrounding weather influences send the LOW towards the NW it has over a 68% (my weird science percentage not physics) of really deepening, specially if the steering patterns are to bring/or assisted to bring the LOW towards the outlined yellow areas in this crappy graphic.    Why till Feb's 2nd week it has to do with 2 cycles not grounded in physics, i call "2wkAnom" & the 2 months between those "2wkAnom" periods. "2wkAnom"? search for it when you have time.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


How welcome would U.S. troops be in that area? Wouldn't want to see another Mogadishu.
That all started over providing aid to starving Somalians but none of the aid was getting to the people.
Not an apples to apples comparison, but I doubt the U.S. would want to put boots on the ground.
It's not comparable at all. Somalia was an out of control country with no functioning government. The United States had a political goal of supporting one warlord they thought could establish a government while they were also doing humanitarian aid. The other warlords then saw us as invaders and supporters of their enemy, and the rest is history. Malawi does have a functioning government and no ongoing civil war. The goal would be to get in, distribute aid to the most urgent cases, and get out. Malawi would like us to resume foreign aid so they are likely to be reasonably cooperative. Of course, I have no inside knowledge about any of that. Hopefully, someone in our government does.
Quoting 53. guygee:

Him and California too.

This morning I finally got around to reading Christopher Burt's blog post 'The RRR ‘Ridiculously Resilient Ridge’ Returns to California'. Things aren't looking so good for Cali.

For anyone who hasn't read it, it's well worth a read through.
Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters....
Let's see if the warm areas in the Western Pacific creep eastward with time to get a certain person happy.


ok.....these posts are going to have to stop as they can become embarrassing....our daughter is in the hospital again...and mom and i went there this morning to visit....after meeting with her and the doctor i went back out to the lobby....flipped my phone to the blog....read the comment...and burst out laughing....laughter is not a common sound in the lobby folks.....they think i'm crazy...they could be right
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, not confirmed.

Link
Someone in the NWS must be doing a test. It does say at the top of the image it's experimental. I don't know about you, but using Google Earth for damage assessment doesn't make a lot of sense. It's not real time enough to show damage that happened a few hours ago and you're still going to have to send people out to do a real damage assessment. Maybe I don't understand the purpose but I don't see this as being very helpful. The local EMA or law enforcement can tell you if some trees blew down. Just reading the damage reports as they come in usually gives me a pretty good idea of if there was a tornado and a rough idea how big it was, and that all comes from local resources.
i doubt if life becomes lifeless throughout the world oceans some critters who are more adaptive will take up the space of the affected fish.
Quoting Naga5000:


Not one single study ever said that was to be the case. You are taking what sensationalist news articles produced and taking it out on the science. That's the equivalent of kicking your cat when the dog barks at the mailman.
Here's an article from LiveScience on August 31, 2005, nearly the height of the panic of the CONUS being attacked by more and larger hurricanes every year.

The past 10 years have seen more ferocious and more frequent hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and scientists are confident that there will be more to come. While some studies have suggested that global warming may be a contributing factor, many meteorologists instead believe that it is just part of a natural cycle.

The rest of the article goes on to explain that while some studies thought there would be more hurricanes, there was no proof of that, and the real experts in tropical meteorology were unanimous that what we saw the preceding 10 years was likely to be part of a natural cycle. Global warming, if it played any part at all, was likely to be minor. Now, almost 10 years later, they have proven to be right and whatever studies predicted otherwise were wrong.

It's really important to remember that results of any one study are not truth. The study has to be replicated and natural events have to follow the hypothesis of the study. The media likes to headline a single study that has just been released, generally one that shows as much doom as possible. Those studies have not yet been proven to be true, and no hypothesis is worth a rat's behind until it's been proven to be true.
62. vis0
Quoting 30. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Apparently the National Weather Service office in Nashville, Tennessee used aerial images from Google Earth to determine that an EF0 tornado touched down this morning.

As far as I know, there weren't any storms in the area...?





CREDIT:: (NOAA) SAT goes-east_16km_psir4 via Colorado State.

http://youtu.be/q28GueEOb7s

Quoting ricderr:
Let's see if the warm areas in the Western Pacific creep eastward with time to get a certain person happy.


ok.....these posts are going to have to stop as they can become embarrassing....our daughter is in the hospital again...and mom and i went there this morning to visit....after meeting with her and the doctor i went back out to the lobby....flipped my phone to the blog....read the comment...and burst out laughing....laughter is not a common sound in the lobby folks.....they think i'm crazy...they could be right
I hope your daughter is doing well. Good thing you didn't read it when you were next to the psych ward. :-)
The 12z ECMWF was very close to showing a blockbuster snowstorm for the Northeast as we head toward the weekend. Minor changes in the forecast track will mean everything with this system, and it needs to be monitored closely.
From the previous blog:
Quoting 275. ricderr:


not to worry bubba....i think most of us understood what you were saying........you can look here at eath.nullschool.net and see the westerlies once again aren't a blowin.....

walks off singing....the answer my friend...is blowin in the wind...the answer is blowin in the wind

That is a seriously cool link. I've seen wind maps like this, but didn't realize this one can be rotated and tilted to look at any area of the earth. VERY cool.
Jeez guys, Malawi is one of the most chilled countries with the most brilliant people. Mogadishu???!!!! Give us a break!!
Malawians do not deserve what has happened to them and just need a hand. They finally managed to crack national food security - pretty much on their own - and are a proud and democratic nation, not a dictatorship or kleptocracy. The last President returned the presidential jet to the company it was bought from as it was felt to be excessive. The country, while not perfect, is better than most.

Quoting 55. sar2401:

It's not comparable at all. Somalia was an out of control country with no functioning government. The United States had a political goal of supporting one warlord they thought could establish a government while they were also doing humanitarian aid. The other warlords then saw us as invaders and supporters of their enemy, and the rest is history. Malawi does have a functioning government and no ongoing civil war. The goal would be to get in, distribute aid to the most urgent cases, and get out. Malawi would like us to resume foreign aid so they are likely to be reasonably cooperative. Of course, I have no inside knowledge about any of that. Hopefully, someone in our government does.
See my most recent comment. Malawi was corrupt under the first president Banda but that was in the 1970 and 80s. Things are very different today. Anyway nobody in Africa wants US "boots on the ground". Rather assist groups like "Gift of the givers" and "Rescue South Africa" who do effective, on the ground work and have proven track records but never enough funding.

Quoting 42. sar2401:

Firstly, I never mentioned Mozambique. Secondly, the old colonialism justifies corruption argument is really bosh. Malawi has been independent for 50 years, and its record of corruption stands on its own. The subject here is getting aid to people in need. If you can tell me how that can be reliably done using the facilities of the Malawi government, I'm all ears.
Quoting 61. sar2401:

Here's an article from LiveScience on August 31, 2005, nearly the height of the panic of the CONUS being attacked by more and larger hurricanes every year.

The past 10 years have seen more ferocious and more frequent hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and scientists are confident that there will be more to come. While some studies have suggested that global warming may be a contributing factor, many meteorologists instead believe that it is just part of a natural cycle.

The rest of the article goes on to explain that while some studies thought there would be more hurricanes, there was no proof of that, and the real experts in tropical meteorology were unanimous that what we saw the preceding 10 years was likely to be part of a natural cycle. Global warming, if it played any part at all, was likely to be minor. Now, almost 10 years later, they have proven to be right and whatever studies predicted otherwise were wrong.

It's really important to remember that results of any one study are not truth. The study has to be replicated and natural events have to follow the hypothesis of the study. The media likes to headline a single study that has just been released, generally one that shows as much doom as possible. Those studies have not yet been proven to be true, and no hypothesis is worth a rat's behind until it's been proven to be true.


Right, but live science doesn't cite one study. Instead, the link takes you to a few snippets from climatologist Kevin Trenberth including this one "There is no sound theoretical basis for drawing any conclusions about how anthropogenic climate change affects hurricane numbers or tracks, and thus how many hit land," Trenberth said"...

In fact, later in 2005 Emanuel's paper comes out which shows through statistical analysis that stronger tropical cyclones (roughly cat 3 and higher) were getting stronger, globally...
Quoting vis0:




CREDIT:: (NOAA) SAT goes-east_16km_psir4 via Colorado State.

http://youtu.be/q28GueEOb7s



The January 19 radar from Nashville. The green stuff that shows up in the early morning is clutter which seems to show up every early morning on WU radar. Every single TAF from the area airports since midnight showed unlimited ceiling and visibility with significant dewpoint depression. We can be pretty sure no tornado occurred in or around Nashville today.

Well, crap, as usual, WU can't display its own radar image. You can see it at the link if you're interested.

Link
Quoting 64. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z ECMWF was very close to showing a blockbuster snowstorm for the Northeast as we head toward the weekend. Minor changes in the forecast track will mean everything with this system, and it needs to be monitored closely.
Knowing how this winter has been it will stay suppressed and go out to sea.NEXT!
Quoting ekogaia:
Jeez guys, Malawi is one of the most chilled countries with the most brilliant people. Mogadishu???!!!! Give us a break!!
Malawians do not deserve what has happened to them and just need a hand. They finally managed to crack national food security - pretty much on their own - and are a proud and democratic nation, not a dictatorship or kleptocracy. The last President returned the presidential jet to the company it was bought from as it was felt to be excessive. The country, while not perfect, is better than most.



Get out your wallet and help the cause. Unfortunately, I believe these disasters will become more and more common.
And nobody deserves to be wiped out by Mother Nature. Not sure why it would be less terrible if it happened to a different nation.
Prayers and Condolences to lives lost and those affected by the flooding in Africa. Also remember MLK today and the Christian mandate for assistance and prayer. Our lives are not measured by what we acquire in terms of material things but on how we lived our lives and tried to help others in need. As noted below, we may see more frequency of severe weather related events globally and one of Dr. King's noted quotes was "We either learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools".....................................Interna tional aid is an important humanitarian consideration and response to natural and weather related disasters for the more impoverished nations of the Earth.
Quoting Naga5000:


Right, but live science doesn't cite one study. Instead, the link takes you to a few snippets from climatologist Kevin Trenberth including this one "There is no sound theoretical basis for drawing any conclusions about how anthropogenic climate change affects hurricane numbers or tracks, and thus how many hit land," Trenberth said"...

In fact, later in 2005 Emanuel's paper comes out which shows through statistical analysis that stronger tropical cyclones (roughly cat 3 and higher) were getting stronger, globally...
I know, and that's why I posted that article. It doesn't point to any single study, just the usual "Some scientists think...". The only study I'm aware of the is peer reviewed and speaks to the effect of global warming and tropical cyclones is Emanuel's, and even that study has some confounding factors. My point was that, in August of 2005, when it would have been almost natural to jump on the "We're all going to die" bandwagon, the guys who are tropical experts were still pretty circumspect about how global warming was going to affect the number of hurricanes hitting the US.
Quoting LAbonbon:

This morning I finally got around to reading Christopher Burt's blog post 'The RRR ‘Ridiculously Resilient Ridge’ Returns to California'. Things aren't looking so good for Cali.

For anyone who hasn't read it, it's well worth a read through.
Sacramento forecast discussion plays the same tune for the upcoming weekend.

"Confidence is high that a strong ridge will develop over the eastern Pacific and will shift over Northern California. The Relative Measure of Predictability for the Global Ensemble is over 90 percent for this ridge being over the region. Latest GFS and ECMWF both show 850 mb temperatures a remarkable 16-18 C, which are levels generally seen much later into the spring. NAEFS ensembles are showing increasingly strong anomalies for the strength of the ridge, with levels suggesting the possibility of record high temperatures in some locations."
Quoting ekogaia:
See my most recent comment. Malawi was corrupt under the first president Banda but that was in the 1970 and 80s. Things are very different today. Anyway nobody in Africa wants US "boots on the ground". Rather assist groups like "Gift of the givers" and "Rescue South Africa" who do effective, on the ground work and have proven track records but never enough funding.

I assume you must be Malawian. Rather than dispute the level of corruption, can you give us some links to the organizations that you know are effective in Malawi? I'd like to make a contribution directly to them.
Quoting 65. LAbonbon:

From the previous blog:

That is a seriously cool link. I've seen wind maps like this, but didn't realize this one can be rotated and tilted to look at any area of the earth. VERY cool.
yes it also has many different layers that are quite useful I use it almost entirely myself when checking current and forecasted conditions out too 5 days the most
thanks doc

onward forever faster and faster we go


strong cold signal development for late jan into early feb for the heart of winter too come
Don't be surprised to see a slight risk for severe thunderstorms to be added across FL on Friday as the Euro is showing a very unstable environment with PWAT's of near 2", dewpoints near 70 south of the front, and a pretty decent low level jet along with -11C 500mb temps.
Quoting 76. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes it also has many different layers that are quite useful I use it almost entirely myself when checking current and forecasted conditions out too 5 days the most


4 pm est sfc temp /winds depiction

Quoting 73. sar2401:

I know, and that's why I posted that article. It doesn't point to any single study, just the usual "Some scientists think...". The only study I'm aware of the is peer reviewed and speaks to the effect of global warming and tropical cyclones is Emanuel's, and even that study has some confounding factors. My point was that, in August of 2005, when it would have been almost natural to jump on the "We're all going to die" bandwagon, the guys who are tropical experts were still pretty circumspect about how global warming was going to affect the number of hurricanes hitting the US.


Confounding factors, I like that. :)
Quoting 79. StormTrackerScott:

Don't be surprised to see a slight risk for severe thunderstorms to be added across FL on Friday as the Euro is showing a very unstable environment with PWAT's of near 2", dewpoints near 70 south of the front, and a pretty decent low level jet along with -11C 500mb temps.


The most important factor that may help will be the close proximity of the surface low, which means more vorticity, and stronger dynamics. Every low the past 2 months that has even been slightly potent has been well north of the region over the past couple months.

This one will move right across FL, but I don't think it will be strong enough for a serious severe threat, but it seems it may be enough for a slight risk. We shall see.
fri-sat could get a bit interesting....................................... .........
Quoting 82. Jedkins01:



The most important factor that may help will be the close proximity of the surface low, which means more vorticity, and stronger dynamics. Every low the past 2 months that has even been slightly potent has been well north of the region over the past couple months.

This one will move right across FL, but I don't think it will be strong enough for a serious severe threat, but it seems it may be enough for a slight risk. We shall see.


I agree no serious threat but enough for a slight risk but what i think will be a issue is the threat for heavy rains possibly in the 1" to 3" range across C & N FL and maybe the FL Panhandle too. 1" to 3" of additional rain here in Orlando would cause problems with flooding as water levels are already high. I also got to tell you that the months of Feb, Mar, Apr, and May all look very wet across FL so even S FL should start getting into the act as well.
I hope this GEM model doesn't verify,rainfall wise......................................
Quoting 73. sar2401:

I know, and that's why I posted that article. It doesn't point to any single study, just the usual "Some scientists think...". The only study I'm aware of the is peer reviewed and speaks to the effect of global warming and tropical cyclones is Emanuel's, and even that study has some confounding factors. My point was that, in August of 2005, when it would have been almost natural to jump on the "We're all going to die" bandwagon, the guys who are tropical experts were still pretty circumspect about how global warming was going to affect the number of hurricanes hitting the US.
I think they were thinking that more would be the new norm but nature I think is going to produce less but stronger than before and faster when they develop during the seasons we are already seeing that

the results of changes and what they will be still has to be seen and it will likely be nowhere near what they expect but more towards the unexpected that may dominate over time as we move forward
RIP Greg Plitt, crazy fitness guru and extreme model/actor, US army ranger, died in filming accident this past weekend. He was an inspiration for many to get up and see the weather everyday with a healthy attitude!!!
Quoting 74. bappit:

Sacramento forecast discussion plays the same tune for the upcoming weekend.

"Confidence is high that a strong ridge will develop over the eastern Pacific and will shift over Northern California. The Relative Measure of Predictability for the Global Ensemble is over 90 percent for this ridge being over the region. Latest GFS and ECMWF both show 850 mb temperatures a remarkable 16-18 C, which are levels generally seen much later into the spring. NAEFS ensembles are showing increasingly strong anomalies for the strength of the ridge, with levels suggesting the possibility of record high temperatures in some locations."

Burt's recent blog post was referenced by members a couple times over the weekend (georgevandenberghe and ACSeattle, I think) in their respones as to why the central US wasn't warmer last year...so I made a mental note to read it. Then this morning I saw your post from last night regarding the ridge and California, and it served as a reminder. Thanks for that! :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


The most important factor that may help will be the close proximity of the surface low, which means more vorticity, and stronger dynamics. Every low the past 2 months that has even been slightly potent has been well north of the region over the past couple months.

This one will move right across FL, but I don't think it will be strong enough for a serious severe threat, but it seems it may be enough for a slight risk. We shall see.
What type of low we get is also important. Is it going to be an inverted surface trough, a surface low, how deep will it get, what will be the actual path, and is it going to be another one that dies in the Gulf before it gets to Florida? The Euro is much more bullish on this low than the other models, with the CMC in the middle, with the GFS wanting to shear the whole thing away before it even gets to Florida. It's a little early to know much about severe weather on Friday.
Quoting 44. Sfloridacat5:



How welcome would U.S. troops be in that area? Wouldn't want to see another Mogadishu.
That all started over providing aid to starving Somalians but none of the aid was getting to the people.
Not an apples to apples comparison, but I doubt the U.S. would want to put boots on the ground.

Its not a matter of boots on the ground; its rather food in the bellys.
Its a fact of life that as soon as there is a disaster, then the hands go out to grasp the aid. Unforunatly the hands that go out are not that hands which paticulary need the aid? They are the hands which need the cash value of the aid.
Along with a few, or possibly a lot of the bloggers on here I have seen quite a bit of how things work in the 3rd world and its not that much differnet from the 1st world stock markets, just at a normally lower finacial level.

I have no solution other than to possibley drop food from an high level via parachute, which might then have a slightly higher possible chance of reaching the needy rather than the ones who are cash needy.
Probably cost a lot less as well to deliver it this way.

Solutions are in the hands of the distributers, one of which I unfortunatly am not one.
Quoting 76. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes it also has many different layers that are quite useful I use it almost entirely myself when checking current and forecasted conditions out too 5 days the most

Sweeet...had no idea it had those capabilities. Once I figured out where the menu was (courtesy of their FB page), I've been like a kid with a new toy. :D

Been changing the mode and layers, and been rotating and tilting like crazy. The guy who came up with this is a genius.

The image gallery on their FB page is pretty cool too.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


wow
Assuming that the Nam is right, I will see a slight of snow. What do you guys think. Do you think the parameters will be there.
Quoting LargoFl:
fri-sat could get a bit interesting....................................... .........
Do you think I will get some wintry precipitation.


light snow here
That whole area that got so flooded in S Africa is getting alot of rain again. Looks like atleast 2 1/2-3 inches in the last 12 hrs over a fairly large area. We may get another invest/storm in the Mozambique Channel very soon.


Quoting 92. LAbonbon:


Sweeet...had no idea it had those capabilities. Once I figured out where the menu was (courtesy of their FB page), I've been like a kid with a new toy. :D

Been changing the mode and layers, and been rotating and tilting like crazy. The guy who came up with this is a genius.

The image gallery on their FB page is pretty cool too.

The wind map is probably on par with the industrial revolution of metorology as it just simple works so well.
I cant remember who found it first on here? Maybe KOTG but I have been using it for about 2 years now.
It uses a lot of memory and wont work with older browsers and XP but its worth having around for those little snags in forecasts.
Its even useful for local forecasts at a high level of magnification. Try this one!

Link

There getting bigger...and there multiplying.

Quoting 98. hydrus:

There getting bigger...and there multiplying.




DON'T PANIC!

Quoting 97. PlazaRed:


The wind map is probably on par with the industrial revolution of metorology as it just simple works so well.
I cant remember who found it first on here? Maybe KOTG but I have been using it for about 2 years now.
It uses a lot of memory and wont work with older browsers and XP but its worth having around for those little snags in forecasts.
Its even useful for local forecasts at a high level of magnification. Try this one!

Link




Just spent a solid hour playing with this...still very cool...and I had no idea I was that late to the party...
Quoting 99. PlazaRed:



DON'T PANIC!


i do not panic , but i do prepare for the bitter cold and possible ice.
Quoting 100. LAbonbon:



Just spent a solid hour playing with this...still very cool...and I had no idea I was that late to the party...

Try all the different heights and then you can get it to do a projection into the next 24 hours, ETC.
Keeper told me a lot about how it works about a year ago. He Said, I think, "he spent about 3 days messing with it."
I often wonder if we were ever meant to get OUR hands on it?
Wait till you center it on a hurricane!
Quoting 101. hydrus:

i do not panic , but i do prepare for the bitter cold and possible ice.

I should have been in Albany NY today but due to the -22/C that they saw on the "weather forecast," which I told them about a week ago, based on your posted charts. I am still in Cadiz Province of Spain, where it is only 4/C tonight and the last storm has passed, while we wait for the next.
Layers of duvets and stray cats are recomended for that added warmth.

View from my kitchen window, tonight in Spain. Glad I'm not a block of ice in Albany!

Quoting 103. PlazaRed:


I should have been in Albany NY today but due to the -22/C that they saw on the "weather forecast," which I told them about a week ago, based on your posted charts. I am still in Cadiz Province of Spain, where it is only +4/C tonight and the last storm has passed, while we wait for the next.
Layers of duvets and stray cats are recomended for that added warmth.


How about a 205 pound Irish Wolfhound.
Evening all. Strange to see a TD come off Africa and become a TS. We tend to think of them going the other way. Sad to hear such destruction in Malawi and Mozambique.
Quoting 99. PlazaRed:

DON'T PANIC!


it seems like this bitter cold has been forecast to happen forever.

Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang
3:54 PM EST
This clipper has a couple interesting features. (1) Some of the guidance (GFS) is hinting at coupled jet streak dynamics, which could enhance precip intensity and favor banding; and (2) the high over New England may be in position to give us a cold air wedge, albeit for a brief time (see the GFS surface figure at the beginning of this story).



notting here
Quoting 104. hydrus:

How about a 205 pound Irish Wolfhound.

Although the Irish wolfhound will make a splendid replacement for the stray cats, its probably best to keep them well seperated, that way the duvets will remain in place by gravity alone. Probably best to place the wolfhound on top of your covering of the layered duvets!
Seriously though these weather bouts you are expirianceing seem to be getting a bit tedious this year.
Plus the knock on effects of "Your" weather systems are affecting us now as well.

In the world of stark reality's, these downpour storms are getting a bit out of hand. We have had quite a lot of them over the last year and they are causing a lot of damage.
Weather West Mod • an hour ago
Well...both ECMWF and GFS keying on on day 8-10 subtropical cyclone for California. Still not convinced in the reality of this, since it is an almost inconceivably bizarre setup, but it's starting to look like it might occur. Hmmm.
Looking like a rainy day on Friday for Florida. Heaviest rain should be to the north but I think many places in Central Fl could see over 1".
Taz~ Here is NASA's GEOS-5 model on it..




That would be some much needed rain.
Quoting Skyepony:
Taz~ Here is NASA's GEOS-5 model on it..




That would be some much needed rain.


thanks some in too keep a eye on in later runs
Good Evening Wunderfriends. :D

38 years ago today it snowed in Tampa, FL.

Cold Wave of Jan 19, 1977.

It is noted that while the January 18%u201319 cold front was crossing Florida, every weather recording station in North and Central Florida recorded at least a trace of snow. Further south, 0.2 inches (0.51 cm) of snow fell at both Tampa and Plant City, though 2 inches (5.1 cm) was reported east of Tampa along Interstate 4. West Palm Beach reported its first snowfall starting at 1010 UTC (6:10 a.m. EDT) on January 19, and lasted less than two hours, ending at 1200 UTC (8 a.m. EDT). Simultaneously, snow flurries began falling in Broward and Dade counties; it was the first time snow had ever been observed at Miami. At Homestead, snow fell at the Homestead Air Force Base, and is regarded as the southernmost location of snowfall in the Contiguous United States. Prior to this event, the southern most snow record was in Fort Myers in February 1899. Florida radio stations played Christmas carols as a result of the snowfall. Additionally, snow was reported at Freeport, Bahamas on Grand Bahama, making the only known snowfall in the history of The Bahamas.
Across the state, record low temperatures were reported. For much of the state, temperatures remained below freezing for 10%u201314 hours, and at or less than 28 F (%u22122 C) for at least four hours. In Pensacola, a temperature of 10 F (%u221212 C) was recorded, and was later surpassed by a mere 5 F (%u221215 C) during the Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak. A record low temperature of 20 F (%u22127 C) was reported in Orlando. Few other records were broken in North and Central Florida. In the Tampa Bay Area, temperatures hovered around the upper 20 F (%u22127 C)'s. South of Tampa, record temperatures included: 20 F (%u22127 C) in Devils Garden, 28 F (%u22122 C) in Fort Lauderdale, 19 F (%u22127 C) in LaBelle, 32 F (0 C) in Miami Beach, and 27 F (%u22123 C) in West Palm Beach. Other cold, but not record-breaking temperatures, included: 24 F (%u22124 C) in Belle Glade, 28 F (%u22122 C) in Hollywood, 23 F (%u22125 C) at the Homestead Agricultural Center, 24 F (%u22124 C) in Immokalee, 31 F (%u22121 C) at the Miami International Airport, 25 F (%u22124 C) in Moore Haven, 26 F (%u22123 C) in Naples, and 25 F (%u22124 C) in North Miami Beach. Additionally, temperatures in the 40 F (4 C)'s were reported in the Florida Keys.

Quoting 43. Naga5000:



Not one single study ever said that was to be the case. You are taking what sensationalist news articles produced and taking it out on the science. That's the equivalent of kicking your cat when the dog barks at the mailman.

This was the general sentiment that was floating around at the time.

Right after this blog was posted, a blogger associated the severe flooding with climate change, and in association with this is the fact that ocean temps in that area were above average and contributed to that flooding. The exact same thing happened with the 2004-2005 seasons with many conclusions being drawn (professional or not) that "warmer ocean water worldwide are thought to be fueling stronger hurricanes." That quote is from a TIME nature magazine from 2008 that is still sitting in my bathroom.

It may not be in the specific "official" studies you consult, but it's this general sentiment which charges the general population.
Still getting ridiculous enjoyment from my new toy.



2015-01-20 00:00 UTC
Data | Wind @ 850hPa + Mean Sea Level Pressure
Quoting 115. opal92nwf:


This was the general sentiment that was floating around at the time.

Right after this blog was posted, a blogger associated the severe flooding with climate change, and in association with this is the fact that ocean temps in that area were above average and contributed to that flooding. The exact same thing happened with the 2004-2005 seasons with many conclusions being drawn (professional or not) that "warmer ocean water worldwide are thought to be fueling stronger hurricanes." That quote is from a TIME nature magazine from 2008 that is still sitting in my bathroom.

It may not be in the specific "official" studies you consult, but it's this general sentiment which charges everyone.


You must be joking. "warmer ocean water worldwide are thought to be fueling stronger hurricanes." is not the same as your original quote: "Yeah, like those major hurricanes that were supposed to be hitting the US every other week after the 2005 season......"

The 2005 Emanuel study found that: "I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and—taking into account an increasing coastal population—a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century."

Now the first bolded section confirms that globally, the strongest tropical storms have been getting stronger and that is directly related to increased SST at least partially from global warming.

The second italic section is a logical assumption based on the results of the study, in the 21st century (which we are only 15 years into), with current coastal population trends, and all else equal, we can expect more damage.

No where does it mention more frequent strikes or more frequent storms as your first assertion claimed. In fact, it is the opposite with the IPCC in 2007 stating "There is no clear trend in the annual numbers [i.e. frequency] of tropical cyclones."

Trying to then "charge" scientists as presenting this as "general sentiment" is either a misunderstanding, a mistake, or blatant dishonesty.

My opinion is your issue seems to stem from a misunderstanding of the difference between what some bloggers said, journalistic flavor, and the actual scientific discourse, and then trying to place fault for your misunderstanding at the feet of everyone involved.

This is why I try to stress to those who are "skeptical" to read the actual scientific articles and skip the interpretive frame of the media. E-mail the scientists, they answer questions and are very nice people. Both Skeptical Science and Wunderground also have very good information that synthesize the science without sensationalizing.
Persistent westerly winds are ongoing along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific for the first time since spring following the passage of the MJO. Long-term implications? I'm not sure. :)

There we go with that "may' word again.
Quoting 119. jrweatherman:

There we go with that "may' word again.


You seem to be so angry that a lot of science is probabilistic and not deterministic. You may want to get that sorted out.
121. vis0
     Google or Yahoo  the following::
     Scientists Observe 'Fast Radio Burst' In Real Time, One Of The Great Mysteries Of The Universe
     My fav quote, if they're included in the story you choose to read is how these "FRBs" have been detected closer than ever before.    As before it was ~9 Billion light Years(bLY) then 7.7bLY, 6bLY, now 5.5bLY. Either some 'energy' is moving very fast or a NYC cab is driving through space ...LOOKOUT!.
          INjoy!

More of the same....
Quoting 120. Naga5000:



You seem to be so angry that a lot of science is probabilistic and not deterministic. You may want to get that sorted out.
I think you are the one sounding angry...
Instead of long winded rebutals you may have better luck with these 5 words.... "get solar and systerns now"

Why should we wait...Do it now.
Remember action now will save money later!!
Also watch as your actions to be a leader in your neighborhood will create reactions!!
More so than any blogosphere....

Win Win.

:)
124. vis0

Quoting 69. sar2401:



The January 19 radar from Nashville. The green stuff that shows up in the early morning is clutter which seems to show up every early morning on WU radar. Every single TAF from the area airports since midnight showed unlimited ceiling and visibility with significant dewpoint depression. We can be pretty sure no tornado occurred in or around Nashville today.

Well, crap, as usual, WU can't display its own radar image. You can see it at the link if you're interested.

Link
     The VId was not to show anything happened (hence no bright circle around a specific cloud or cloud like readout which i usually add) just to see what others thought.
     AND IT WORKED! You let me/readers know of more complete Observations to understand that there was very little chance that F# something didn't happen (earlier i read it seemed like a test) or "they" were just filming The Wizard of Oz III ;-P
Quoting 123. Abacosurf:

I think you are the one sounding angry...
Instead of long winded rebutals you may have better luck with these 5 words.... "get solar and systerns now"

Why should we wait...Do it now.
Remember action now will save money later!!
Also watch as your actions to be a leader in your neighborhood will create reactions!!

Win Win.

:)


Not angry in the least. I don't know why everyone assumes I'm angry...or not doing my part. However, I do wish people would put as much effort into figuring out their own struggles with science as they do with trying to figure out me. /shrug

As for solar panels, I just got approval from the city by way of a permit which involved an arborist who was really just a nice guy with a history degree working on his masters in public administration (gotta love bureaucracy) to take down the dying 40 foot Laurel Oak that covers 75% of my roof and blocks the southern sky. Step 1, complete, step 2 remove tree.
Quoting 125. Naga5000:



Not angry in the least. I don't know why everyone assumes I'm angry...or not doing my part. However, I do wish people would put as much effort into figuring out their own struggles with science as they do with trying to figure out me. /shrug

As for solar panels, I just got approval from the city by way of a permit which involved an arborist who was really just a nice guy with a history degree working on his masters in public administration (gotta love bureaucracy) to take down the dying 40 foot Laurel Oak that covers 75% of my roof and blocks the southern sky. Step 1, complete, step 2 remove tree.

Most the panels don't need direct sunlight these days even working on overcast days as well.
Good luck with the project!! Very rewarding to see your bill drop even after the initial costs.
Quoting 36. JohnLonergan:

Melting glaciers set to release more organic carbon as temperatures climb

Melting ice may affect more than sea levels, according to new research. As the earth warms, more of the carbon locked up in glaciers and ice sheets will be released into surrounding rivers and oceans.

This means that, as well as pushing up sea levels, melting ice could have unknown impacts on marine life.

Carbon release to increase by half

Glaciers and ice sheets cover around 11 per cent of Earth's land surface and hold around 70 per cent of its freshwater. These giant stores of ice also hold organic carbon. Carbon accumulates in new snow and ice, and is released as the glacier melts.

A new study, published today in Nature Geoscience, finds the release of this carbon will speed up as the Earth warms due to climate change.


Read more ...

i live in east haven,conn no big snow storm this year from
Quoting 126. Abacosurf:


Most the panels don't need direct sunlight these days even working on overcast days as well.
Good luck with the project!! Very rewarding to see your bill drop even after the initial costs.


Thanks, 2015 is the year of upgrades here. Trying to bring the 50's house into the 21st century bit by bit.
Around 15 million tonnes of extra organic carbon will be lost from melting glaciers over the next 35 years in the form of tiny dissolved particles, the researchers say. Ice also contains larger 'particulate' carbon, which are like bits of sediment that a river carries.

This extra organic carbon is 47 per cent more than we could expect without climate change, and equivalent to around half of what the Amazon river carries each year, the researchers say.

Organic carbon provides food for tiny organisms at the bottom of the food web. So the extra carbon flowing into rivers and oceans may affect the plants and animals that live around the ice sheets, the researchers say. Adding organic carbon can also affect the chemistry of water, by making it more acidic, for example.

A research first

The research is the first to estimate the total amount of organic carbon held in ice across the world. Researchers collected measurements of organic carbon concentrations from more than 300 samples of glacier and ice sheets in four continents, as the map below shows.



Greetings from Asheville :) I really enjoyed taking this picture...


Quoting 98. hydrus:

There getting bigger...and there multiplying.




Looks to mean it shall be a wee bit nippy in the southeast.
133. vis0

Quoting 73. sar2401:

I know, and that's why I posted that article. It doesn't point to any single study, just the usual "Some scientists think...". The only study I'm aware of the is peer reviewed and speaks to the effect of global warming and tropical cyclones is Emanuel's, and even that study has some confounding factors. My point was that, in August of 2005, when it would have been almost natural to jump on the "We're all going to die" bandwagon, the guys who are tropical experts were still pretty circumspect about how global warming was going to affect the number of hurricanes hitting the US.
  READ then back to the LOW and if it forms off the East coast of USofA, where then?  
The point to me is there is aGW/GCS, sar2401 has stated his opinion on it.
     How does it influence TS?
     Not putting words in any ones mouth (too busy feeding my face to take the time to worry 'bout someone's diet)
     In JUST thinking of a TS tapping into warmer surroundings be it air or water one can make up the following scenarios:
    
     TS become bigger in dimension
     TS become bigger in strength
     TS become faster moving
     TS make quicker/sudden unexpected forward motion changes
     TS become split into 2 (vertically-uncouple or horizontally-anemic looking as 2nd circulation forming form extra energy interferes w/cyclonic formation, being too close)
     TS become erratic, (as if we already knew exactly where T. Storms are going) not just sudden forward motions, backwards, side to side...to hard to imagine 1 thing dpoing all that search for VIDs of Sar2401 driving...oh wait thats a clip from a Its a mad³ world, my bad.
     TS become weaker, but more of them
     TS become stalled in the ocean(s) so areas of the world that are use(d) to receiving tropical moisture become dried out.
    
     We have to keep funding the sciences (that includes to make sure money is not wasted, ANYWHERE!) so in turn we become more knowledgeable of aGW and its affects on nature.
    
    
     and REMEMBER i'm busy eating so i'm not jotting down all scenarios as typing is hard enough without having 2 drumsticks in either hand.
    
     For now i'm worried as to the LOW forming off the East coast of USofA

Quoting PedleyCA:

More of the same....
Wow, that forecast looks exactly like the one from the last days of the Sahara Forest 7,000 years ago. Congratulations! :)
Quoting 113. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Evening Wunderfriends. :D

38 years ago today it snowed in Tampa, FL.

Cold Wave of Jan 19, 1977.

It is noted that while the January 18%u201319 cold front was crossing Florida, every weather recording station in North and Central Florida recorded at least a trace of snow. Further south, 0.2 inches (0.51 cm) of snow fell at both Tampa and Plant City, though 2 inches (5.1 cm) was reported east of Tampa along Interstate 4. West Palm Beach reported its first snowfall starting at 1010 UTC (6:10 a.m. EDT) on January 19, and lasted less than two hours, ending at 1200 UTC (8 a.m. EDT). Simultaneously, snow flurries began falling in Broward and Dade counties; it was the first time snow had ever been observed at Miami. At Homestead, snow fell at the Homestead Air Force Base, and is regarded as the southernmost location of snowfall in the Contiguous United States. Prior to this event, the southern most snow record was in Fort Myers in February 1899. Florida radio stations played Christmas carols as a result of the snowfall. Additionally, snow was reported at Freeport, Bahamas on Grand Bahama, making the only known snowfall in the history of The Bahamas.
Across the state, record low temperatures were reported. For much of the state, temperatures remained below freezing for 10%u201314 hours, and at or less than 28 �F (%u22122 �C) for at least four hours. In Pensacola, a temperature of 10 �F (%u221212 �C) was recorded, and was later surpassed by a mere 5 �F (%u221215 �C) during the Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak. A record low temperature of 20 �F (%u22127 �C) was reported in Orlando. Few other records were broken in North and Central Florida. In the Tampa Bay Area, temperatures hovered around the upper 20 �F (%u22127 �C)'s. South of Tampa, record temperatures included: 20 �F (%u22127 �C) in Devils Garden, 28 �F (%u22122 �C) in Fort Lauderdale, 19 �F (%u22127 �C) in LaBelle, 32 �F (0 �C) in Miami Beach, and 27 �F (%u22123 �C) in West Palm Beach. Other cold, but not record-breaking temperatures, included: 24 �F (%u22124 �C) in Belle Glade, 28 �F (%u22122 �C) in Hollywood, 23 �F (%u22125 �C) at the Homestead Agricultural Center, 24 �F (%u22124 �C) in Immokalee, 31 �F (%u22121 �C) at the Miami International Airport, 25 �F (%u22124 �C) in Moore Haven, 26 �F (%u22123 �C) in Naples, and 25 �F (%u22124 �C) in North Miami Beach. Additionally, temperatures in the 40 �F (4 �C)'s were reported in the Florida Keys.




It's funny that you mention this, because overall it's been a pretty mild winter so far, but the Euro is bringing the 540 thickness all the way into Central Florida Monday night into Tuesday and also generates some light precip off the gulf due to the instability of the much colder air over the warmer gulf waters.

Of course, in this case, the 540 line wouldn't likely be a good analog for snow given that the gulf would keep night temps more moderate. We need to see insanely cold 850 mb temp like that 1977 event to overcome the moderating impact of the gulf and for it to snow in the Tampa Bay area.

Still though, if model trends continue, early next week might be coldest air of the season for the peninsula, we'll see how it evolves this week.
If only cold air was in place...

138. vis0

Quoting 99. PlazaRed:



DON'T PANIC!



CREDIT:: apology page crashed couldn't retrieve info, after img was copied and i added more worried emo faces.

Quoting 119. jrweatherman:

There we go with that "may' word again.


Woe, thy name is thee.
140. vis0

Quoting 109. Tazmanian:

Weather West Mod • an hour ago
Well...both ECMWF and GFS keying on on day 8-10 subtropical cyclone for California. Still not convinced in the reality of this, since it is an almost inconceivably bizarre setup, but it's starting to look like it might occur. Hmmm.
     The "2wkAnom" i only speak of** cause its not a factual weather influence (yet) ,starts in ~2wks.   
     Since the ml-d (search "ml-d, AOI, nyc" to find out what i say it is & does - if pgs. have been archived) looses strength during the first 2/3rds of these "2wkAnom" periods. Maybe some MODELs (after 5 yrs) are noticing this trend.
    
     NOW IT DOES NOT HAPPEN EVERY TIME.
    
     Yet in mid Dec 2014 if one noticed as i posted of this "2wkAnom" period it came and small mini tropical like LOWs formed from spin-offs hugged the Cali-coast almost closing over Baja,CA. These mini LOWs came off larger lows that where heading northward / NNW to Alaska/ Northern Asia, retrograding. If MJO is around i could see if things are just right 1 or 2 mini LOWs getting some sort of tropical storm LOOK.
    
     IN OTHER WORDS ::
     During these "2wkAnom" periods weather within and around the USofA, Canada, to mid Atlantic, parts of South America go through 3-5 days of a sudden surge in energy (triggers sudden spun up LOWs)  and then seem to get back to normal (3-5 more days) till the "2wkAnom" period ends (2wks after it began) then slowly but surely (i didn't call you Shirley Taz) back to ml-d influenced crap.     
     Try to picture TAZ going, huh?
    
     **'cause i have exclusive right to my cah-rayzee brain
Quoting 137. VAbeachhurricanes:

If only cold air was in place...


*If only if only the woodpecker sighed*
The year-to-date tornado count hasn't changed much since my last update, with the sole addition of an EF1 tornado in Washington on Sunday. That tornado brings the count to 23, a bit below the January average of 35. There's still room for additional tornadoes, but I predict that the count will end slightly below average as arctic air overtakes the Central and East U.S. next week.

SOI continues to nose dive and this is very important as there is likely another westerly wind burst crossing the W-Pac.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 20 Jan 2015
Average for last 30 days -8.0
Average for last 90 days -7.5
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -41.0
Seems to be a pretty good surge in westerly winds around 160W

This just updated from the Aussies (BOM). Very interesting indeed.

February


April


June


Clipper Pattern to Bring Snow to Midwest and Northeast (FORECAST)nPublished Jan 20 2015 06:29 AM EST

A clipper weather pattern will grip the northern tier of the United States through the week ahead, bringing snow to many states from the Midwest to the Northeast.

Clipper systems are fairly common in the winter when the weather pattern features a dip, or a developing dip, in the jet stream east of the Rockies. Disturbances in the upper atmosphere and/or low pressure systems near the surface of the earth dive down across the Midwest from Canada and charge eastward rapidly. These fast-moving systems can produce light-to-moderate snowfall across a wide area, gusty winds and falling temperatures.
Forecast: Snow Through Midweek

Through Tuesday, light snow is expected from the Midwest to as far east as western Pennsylvania as the clipper disturbances dive southeastward.

Bismarck, North Dakota, Minneapolis, Chicago and Cleveland are among the cities that could see light snow Tuesday or Tuesday night. A wintry mix or light rain will fall on the southern fringe of where the disturbances track.

By Wednesday, much of the activity shifts to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This will be related to both the disturbances coming from the Midwest and a developing surface low well off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Snow or a mix of rain and snow could develop in Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington.

Depending on the track of the system, snow could move into the New York City metro to perhaps as far north as southern New England later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Nice video of the El-Reno tornado if anyone is interested.

Link



light snow coming soon
That El-Reno video that I posted is just ridiculous! If that doesn't get one ready for tornado season then I don't know what does.

Quoting 150. hurricanes2018:




light snow coming soon


It's just you and I on here Jason. I got to go get some work done so keep it going buddy.
Doesnt get much nicer. Looks like rain come Friday but then it dries out for at least 2 weeks it looks like. No freezes in the foreseeable future either!



Models are a little more interesting this morning. This run shows more of the negative phase that will occur in February. MJO a bit stronger then the last run. Only a slight difference in the NAO.

hey hydrus....that map aint a foolin.........we're forecast to be over 70 today...our average high is in the mid 50's
Cloudy and gloomy morning here in Fort Myers. I doubt we will see any rain.
my friends keep posting about a westerly wind push in the enso regions.......doesn't look like it's there anymore judging by earth.school.net
UH-OH.....aussies say it's time to serve the crow......


Tropical Pacific Ocean moves from El Niño to neutral
Issued on 20 January 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Since late 2014, most ENSO indicators have eased back from borderline El Niño levels. As the natural seasonal cycle of ENSO is now entering the decay phase, and models indicate a low chance of an immediate return to El Niño levels, neutral conditions are considered the most likely scenario through into autumn.
Central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have fallen by around half a degree from their peak of 1.1 °C above average in late November. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has weakened to values more consistent with neutral conditions, while recent cloud patterns show little El Niño signature. As all models surveyed by the Bureau favour a continuation of these neutral conditions in the coming months, the immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. Hence the ENSO Tracker has been reset to NEUTRAL. The Tracker will remain at NEUTRAL unless observations and model outlooks indicate a heightened risk of either La Niña or El Niño developing later this year.
Next update expected on 3 February 2015 | print version
aussies didn't see much concerning the tradewinds either.....

Trade winds
Trade winds were stronger than average over the far western tropical Pacific, but weaker than average between the Date Line and around 150°W for the 5 days ending 18 January (see map).
During La Niña there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.
they're not excited about kelvin waves either......

Monthly sub-surface temperatures
The four-month sequence of sub-surface temperature anomalies (to 19 January) shows that while warm anomalies remain present across most of top 100 m of the equatorial sub-surface profile, these anomalies are generally weak. Anomalies reach more than 1.5 °C warmer than average in part of the eastern equatorial Pacific and in a region around 160°E.The strength of warm anomalies has declined over recent months. Cool anomalies have appeared in the central to eastern Pacific subsurface (around 100 m to 150 m depth) over the past two months.
Quoting 157. hydrus:


big warm up for the west
with the exception of a TS temporary changing values as skyepony noted yesterday....SOI isn't showing much either

Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has fluctuated over the past fortnight, rising to −4 before dropping again, but has remained within neutral values. The latest 30-day SOI value to 18 January is −6.1.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate El Niño. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010- 012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-210915-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERD ON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
405 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILADELPHIA.
WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE AXIS OF
GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURS, A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


cloudiness just aint doing either.......


Cloudiness near the Date Line
Cloudiness near the Date Line has remained below average since the first few days of January.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during El Niño and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during La Niña.


ahhhh.....darn that spring barrier....getting people excited over nothing....

Model outlooks
All eight surveyed international climate models favour neutral values of central Pacific Ocean SSTs until at least April. Around half of the models predict some warming of SSTs late in the southern hemisphere autumn or during winter; two models forecast NINO3.4 will exceed El Niño threshold values during winter and a third briefly reaches threshold values before dropping away. Two models indicate cooling of central Pacific SSTs over autumn–winter, although remaining within neutral bounds.
Model outlooks forecast through the autumn months have lower confidence than forecasts at other times of the year. This period is known as the “autumn predictability barrier” as the temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean naturally weakens at this time of year. Model outlooks for predictions through autumn should therefore be treated with caution


sooooooooo......i am officially off the el nino bandwagon.....not that i won't stop following the conditions...just that.....well.....it's just that...when all the conditions that should be showing some signs of el nino...aren't....you would have to be an idiot to not be able to read the writing on the wall.....so....yep...im lining up for my helping of crow.....any joiners?

excuse me while i sing the blues for a minute....



Ain't no sunshine when el nino's gone
It's not warm when el nino's away.
Ain't no sunshine when el nino's gone
And el nino's always gone too long
Anytime el nino's goes away.
Good morning

It's a cloudy 75, going for a high of 80, here on the island today.

Spent a wonderful day yesterday fishing with a great group of friends when it came to a screeching halt with a phone call that my other half's nephew, who free dives for lobster, was missing. We hauled in the lines and started back towards the island and joined in the search of the waters and shores until we couldn't see the bottom anymore.

This morning his body was recovered in the exact same place that we hauled the boat out late yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say that in this small fishing community, this has hit us very hard. It not only reminds me of how short life is but how important it is not to fish/swim alone. I told my other half last evening as we watched the coast guard helicopter searching, "DO NOT EVER let me be the one sitting on this bay waiting for word on you like we are with David right now."

Link

Stay safe, everyone

Lindy

Quoting 104. hydrus:

How about a 205 pound Irish Wolfhound.


100 and 120 pound labs, a 5 pound cockapoo and two 5 pound cats fill the bill in my house.
My condolences Lindy. Tragic.

Quoting 173. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's a cloudy 75, going for a high of 80, here on the island today.

Spent a wonderful day yesterday fishing with a great group of friends when it came to a screeching halt with a phone call that my other half's nephew, who free dives for lobster, was missing. We hauled in the lines and started back towards the island and joined in the search of the waters and shores until we couldn't see the bottom anymore.

This morning his body was recovered in the exact same place that we hauled the boat out late yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say that in this small fishing community, this has hit us very hard. It not only reminds me of how short life is but how important it is not to fish/swim alone. I told my other half last evening as we watched the coast guard helicopter searching, "DO NOT EVER let me be the one sitting on this bay waiting for word on you like we are with David right now."

Link

Stay safe, everyone

Lindy


Quoting ricderr:
excuse me while i sing the blues for a minute....



Ain't no sunshine when el nino's gone
It's not warm when el nino's away.
Ain't no sunshine when el nino's gone
And el nino's always gone too long
Anytime el nino's goes away.



dont press your luck
sorry for your loss VI
dont press your luck


come on taz my friend...you were once on the nino band wagon....grab yourself a plate and some crow and sit here next to me
Peace where you can find it, Lindy.
Sympathy.
Quoting 178. ricderr:
dont press your luck


come on taz my friend...you were once on the nino band wagon....grab yourself a plate and some crow and sit here next to me


The price of crow may be going up soon ;-)
Quoting 173. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's a cloudy 75, going for a high of 80, here on the island today.

Spent a wonderful day yesterday fishing with a great group of friends when it came to a screeching halt with a phone call that my other half's nephew, who free dives for lobster, was missing. We hauled in the lines and started back towards the island and joined in the search of the waters and shores until we couldn't see the bottom anymore.

This morning his body was recovered in the exact same place that we hauled the boat out late yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say that in this small fishing community, this has hit us very hard. It not only reminds me of how short life is but how important it is not to fish/swim alone. I told my other half last evening as we watched the coast guard helicopter searching, "DO NOT EVER let me be the one sitting on this bay waiting for word on you like we are with David right now."

Link

Stay safe, everyone

Lindy



So sorry for your loss. My son free dives in Hawaii. Scares me half to death but he enjoys it so much.
You don't really hear too much about flooding in Africa.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning

It's a cloudy 75, going for a high of 80, here on the island today.

Spent a wonderful day yesterday fishing with a great group of friends when it came to a screeching halt with a phone call that my other half's nephew, who free dives for lobster, was missing. We hauled in the lines and started back towards the island and joined in the search of the waters and shores until we couldn't see the bottom anymore.

This morning his body was recovered in the exact same place that we hauled the boat out late yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say that in this small fishing community, this has hit us very hard. It not only reminds me of how short life is but how important it is not to fish/swim alone. I told my other half last evening as we watched the coast guard helicopter searching, "DO NOT EVER let me be the one sitting on this bay waiting for word on you like we are with David right now."

Link

Stay safe, everyone

Lindy


Wow, that's terrible. Sorry for your loss.
Quoting 173. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's a cloudy 75, going for a high of 80, here on the island today.

Spent a wonderful day yesterday fishing with a great group of friends when it came to a screeching halt with a phone call that my other half's nephew, who free dives for lobster, was missing. We hauled in the lines and started back towards the island and joined in the search of the waters and shores until we couldn't see the bottom anymore.

This morning his body was recovered in the exact same place that we hauled the boat out late yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say that in this small fishing community, this has hit us very hard. It not only reminds me of how short life is but how important it is not to fish/swim alone. I told my other half last evening as we watched the coast guard helicopter searching, "DO NOT EVER let me be the one sitting on this bay waiting for word on you like we are with David right now."

Link

Stay safe, everyone

Lindy




I'm sorry to hear that, Lindy.
Quoting ricderr:
dont press your luck


come on taz my friend...you were once on the nino band wagon....grab yourself a plate and some crow and sit here next to me



your pressing your luck
From the BBC (video); includes summary of most pressing issue (drinking water), and forecast for future rains:

Deadly floods in Malawi
19 January 2015 Last updated at 18:38
Large areas in the south are underwater and homes, crops and livestock have been washed away. Philip Avery has the whole story.
Quoting 174. georgevandenberghe:



a 5 pound cockapoo



That is one tiny puppy...

By the way, I find myself having a tough time remembering how GMT relates to our time zones here in America (I'm EST). Does anybody have any neat simple tricks? For example, Dr. Masters' blog was posted at 4:35 PM GMT - I had to look up (again) that it corresponds to 11:35 AM EST. For other memory-challenged folks out there ... how do you remember the difference?
12z GFS is more interesting with the weekend storm, but should not be taken as the final word. Low confidence.



Quoting 170. ricderr:

sooooooooo......i am officially off the el nino bandwagon.....not that i won't stop following the conditions...just that.....well.....it's just that...when all the conditions that should be showing some signs of el nino...aren't....you would have to be an idiot to not be able to read the writing on the wall.....so....yep...im lining up for my helping of crow.....any joiners?




SAD!!!!
Quoting 189. LongIslandBeaches:



That is one tiny puppy...

By the way, I find myself having a tough time remembering how GMT relates to our time zones here in America (I'm EST). Does anybody have any neat simple tricks? For example, Dr. Masters' blog was posted at 4:35 PM GMT - I had to look up (again) that it corresponds to 11:35 AM EST. For other memory-challenged folks out there ... how do you remember the difference?


Isn't GMT the same as UTC? If so, follow the six hour formula:

0z = 8:00 PM
6z = 2:00 AM
12z = 8:00 AM
18z = 2:00 PM

Extrapolate as needed between those intervals.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 189. LongIslandBeaches:



That is one tiny puppy...

By the way, I find myself having a tough time remembering how GMT relates to our time zones here in America (I'm EST). Does anybody have any neat simple tricks? For example, Dr. Masters' blog was posted at 4:35 PM GMT - I had to look up (again) that it corresponds to 11:35 AM EST. For other memory-challenged folks out there ... how do you remember the difference?


GMT is four hours later than Eastern time in the summer two thirds of the year (DST) and five hours later in winter (EST .. non daylight savings time).

12Z is 8AM in summer and 7AM in winter.
Quoting 165. hurricanes2018:

big warm up for the west


I live in the east :-(
Quoting 189. LongIslandBeaches:



That is one tiny puppy...

By the way, I find myself having a tough time remembering how GMT relates to our time zones here in America (I'm EST). Does anybody have any neat simple tricks? For example, Dr. Masters' blog was posted at 4:35 PM GMT - I had to look up (again) that it corresponds to 11:35 AM EST. For other memory-challenged folks out there ... how do you remember the difference?


If you're in the Eastern time zone, you are either 4 or 5 hours behind GMT/UTC/Zulu. If it's EDT (summer), then it's 4 hours; if it's EST (winter) then it's 5 hours.

For me, I'm Central, so it's either 5 or 6 hours, depending on the time of year. I make mistakes in my mental conversions around the time our clocks change, but it doesn't last long, as I get used to the shift.

This Wiki page for Eastern Time Zone may help; the box on the right is a great graphic. (I keep the one for Central Time Zone as a shortcut on my desktop).

Hope this helps a little.
Quoting 193. KoritheMan:



Isn't GMT the same as UTC? If so, follow the six hour formula:

0z = 8:00 PM
6z = 2:00 AM
12z = 8:00 AM
18z = 2:00 PM

Extrapolate as needed between those intervals.


Kori - that will only work for him for part of the year. Right now, he's 5 hours behind GMT/Zulu/UTC. When the clocks change in March, then your list works, until the clocks change back in the fall.