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Incredible Lightning Photos of the Eye of Bansi From the International Space Station

By: Jeff Masters 2:10 AM GMT on January 18, 2015

One of the most incredible photographs ever of a tropical cyclone was taken this week of Tropical Cyclone Bansi in the South Indian Ocean, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds on January 13 at 00 UTC. Lightning within an intense thunderstorm in the eyewall of the storm lit up the eye at night, which was captured on the International Space Station by Astronaut Sam Cristoforetti in the photos below. Bansi grazed the French island of La Reunion, off the coast of Madagascar, on January 13. The storm dumped up to 22 inches of rain, according to RSMC-Tropical Cyclone Centre La Reunion, the official agency for monitoring tropical cyclones in the southwest Indian Ocean. More populated areas of the island picked up 6 -10 inches of rain. La Reunion is notorious for its incredible rains from tropical cyclones, due to its steep volcanic terrain and location in the Southwest Indian Ocean's "hurricane alley." According to the World Meteorological Organization, world rainfall records that have been set there include:

12 hours: 45.00" (1.144 m), Jan. 7 - 8, 1966 during Tropical Cyclone Denise
24 hours:  71.85" (1.825 m), Jan. 7 - 8, 1966 during Tropical Cyclone Denise
72 hours: 154.72" (3.930 m), Feb. 24 - 26, 2007 during Tropical Cyclone Gamede
96 hours: 194.33" (4.936 m), Feb. 24 - 27, 2007 during Tropical Cyclone Gamede
10 days: 223.50" (5.678 m), Jan. 18 - 27, 1980 as Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe moved slowly over the island

The 12-hour rainfall record of 45" on La Reunion is more rain than Death Valley, California gets in twenty years!




Figures 1 and 2. Lighting in the eyewall lights up the eye of Tropical Cyclone Bansi, as seen from the International Space Station. The date of the photos was not given, but presumably was January 13, 2015, when Bansi was near peak intensity as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: Astronaut Sam Cristoforetti.

Bansi one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record in the Southwest Indian Ocean
According to TWC's Michael Lowry, very few stronger tropical cyclones have been recorded in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The strongest storm on record to form there was Tropical Cyclone Agnielle of November 1995, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds. The only other Cat 5s to form in the basin were Geralda (January 1994) and Gafilo (March 2004), which had top sustained winds of 165 mph and 160 mph, respectively. Bansi was a Category 1 storm on Saturday evening, and was headed east-southeastwards towards colder waters and an expected dissipation on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow. Some shot.
Incredible and beautiful :-)
Thanks Doc whew...
Odd structure.

Thanks Dr. Masters! Those are absolutely phenomenal shots!
Quoting 581. Naga5000:



What papers? If you mean the hacked e-mails, multiple investigations revealed no wrong doing whatsoever on the part of the scientists. While I respect your opinion, I don't like it and I don't think it's valid. But then again, when you think there is a conspiracy, you have no evidence to prove it, and all the evidence which shows it's wrong is not believable because it's the basis of the very conspiracy you think is happening, what else is left? You can't fight tautology.

The tautology argument is nothing more than another way to look at the fact that I have no facts to base my claim on.
Thanks Dr. Masters, truly an amazing shot. Thumbs up for the ISS for capturing this outstanding picture.
Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters, nice pics.....
Poor TA. He had just posted that in the previous blog right after the Doc's entry. I can hear him now

?&%#@?.
That's impressive with the lightning in a tropical system like that!!

Eric
Great pictures, love ths first one. The eye sort of looks like Earth and the bright lightening the Sun.

I've really enjoyed tracking Bansi. It's proved yet again at how difficult it is to predict the strength of tropical cyclones. Been an interesting system for sure. :)
Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 6:05 PM AKST on January 17, 2015
Clear
28.8 °F / -1.8 °C
Clear
Windchill: 29 °F / -2 °C
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 26 °F / -3 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h
Pressure: 29.29 in / 992 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 590 ft / 179 m
warming up, up top.....
Quoting 9. Grothar:

Poor TA. He had just posted that in the previous blog right after the Doc's entry. I can hear him now

?&%#@?.


And Dr. Masters had posted them to the t-storms email list a minute before TA posted them here. Funny how the timeline works :)
According to TWC's Michael Lowry, very few stronger tropical cyclones have been recorded in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The strongest storm on record to form there was Tropical Cyclone Agnielle of November 1995, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds. The only other Cat 5s to form in the basin were Geralda (January 1994) and Gafilo (March 2004), which had top sustained winds of 165 mph and 160 mph, respectively.

There have been plenty other category 5 storms in the SW Indian Ocean. Bruce, while originating in the Australian region, became category 5 after crossing just last season. Also Edzani in 2010, Bento in 2004, Kalunde from 2003, and Hary from 2002 are other such examples. And these are just since 2000!

In fact the 7 category 5s in the SW Indian Ocean since 2000 is very comparable to how many the Atlantic has had in that same timespan, which was 8.
Quoting 9. Grothar:

Poor TA. He had just posted that in the previous blog right after the Doc's entry. I can hear him now

?&%#@?.


Yes but can you blame Dr. Masters?

It's basically like ultimate eye candy for meteorology nerds, those pictures are breath taking.
On Monday Aug 29th,2005 round 5am as the eye wall south of Nola was rapidly approaching, we saw this in the Northern Eyewall above the high clouds as the low ones were racing lit by the streetlights. We all kinda went "wow" as no one from 80 to 45 had ever seen that before in a Hurricane.

It was memorable to say the least.
Quoting 9. Grothar:

Poor TA. He had just posted that in the previous blog right after the Doc's entry. I can hear him now

?&%#@?.

Wouldn't be the first time lol.

Quoting 13. Levi32:



And Dr. Masters had posted them to the t-storms email list a minute before TA posted them here. Funny how the timeline works :)

I've seen this mentioned before--what is that?
Quoting 17. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wouldn't be the first time lol.


I've seen this mentioned before--what is that?


It's a mailing list for professionals in the field to discuss tropical meteorology. Chances are if you attend a MET university, you can get into it. It is not for media or the general public. Definitely apply for a subscription to it if you are a university student.
Quoting 18. Levi32:



It's a mailing list for professionals in the field to discuss tropical meteorology. Chances are if you attend a MET university, you can get into it. It is not for media or the general public. Definitely apply for a subscription to it if you are a university student.

Thanks. Not a university student yet, still have another year to go. I'll try to remember that.
Quoting 18. Levi32:



It's a mailing list for professionals in the field to discuss tropical meteorology. Chances are if you attend a MET university, you can get into it. It is not for media or the general public. Definitely apply for a subscription to it if you are a university student.


I'm a university student, where can I apply?
This might be asking a bit much at this point, but it would be cool to get the time the pictures were taken just to see which stage of the storm's lifecycle they were taken at.
I thought I might sneak in between the land mines and cow pies for a weather report. Mostly sunny day in SE Alabama as we start into several days of above average highs and below average lows. High today was 66 and the low was 30. Strangely, if you average the two, it comes out to the exactly normal average temperature for today. A shortwave passes us by far to the north Tuesday and will probably only result in a little wind and slightly cooler temperatures. Thursday night might be interesting, as we have a big upper trough over the East and some signs of a Southern Stream trying to undercut the trough, with some moisture along the Gulf coast. The models are all over the place as to when cold air from the upper trough gets here compared to when the Gulf moisture arrives. Down here, if it's cold, it's usually too dry for precipitation, and precipitation from the Gulf means a warm front pushing cold air too far north for ice or snow. We do occasionally get just the right combination though, which gives us an ice and snow storm like we had last January. Very low probability right now but at least it's something to follow when the rest of the weather is really boring. :-)
That is an impressive picture!! Thanks Dr Masters for posting it prominently.
Quoting 21. 1900hurricane:

This might be asking a bit much at this point, but it would be cool to get the time the pictures were taken just to see which stage of the storm's lifecycle they were taken at.


No exact date either, but at least a bit more when she first tweeted a simiilar photo (but with lightning elsewhere):

Sam Cristoforetti @AstroSamantha · 13. Jan.
Tropical cyclone #Bansi in Indian Ocean last night, impressive sight. Ciclone tropicale Bansi nell'Oceano Indiano,

The GFS really wants Andres to develop in the East Pacific this month.

Naga, I think you're right. They've accidentally created CMC_v2.0. :)

Quoting 22. sar2401:

I thought I might sneak in between the land mines and cow pies for a weather report. Mostly sunny day in SE Alabama as we start into several days of above average highs and below average lows. High today was 66 and the low was 30. Strangely, if you average the two, it comes out to the exactly normal average temperature for today. A shortwave passes us by far to the north Tuesday and will probably only result in a little wind and slightly cooler temperatures. Thursday night might be interesting, as we have a big upper trough over the East and some signs of a Southern Stream trying to undercut the trough, with some moisture along the Gulf coast. The models are all over the place as to when cold air from the upper trough gets here compared to when the Gulf moisture arrives. Down here, if it's cold, it's usually too dry for precipitation, and precipitation from the Gulf means a warm front pushing cold air too far north for ice or snow. We do occasionally get just the right combination though, which gives us an ice and snow storm like we had last January. Very low probability right now but at least it's something to follow when the rest of the weather is really boring. :-)


Just for fun, what is your opinion on a possible ice/snow storm this year? Please Disregard all scientific data and just use personal opinion based on how this winter has gone so far. I personally think if nothing happens in January then nothing will happen, we may have a couple cold days in early to mid february when we may see some light winter precip. nothing to accumulate, but thats what i think.
Quoting WeatherBAC:


Just for fun, what is your opinion on a possible ice/snow storm this year? Please Disregard all scientific data and just use personal opinion based on how this winter has gone so far. I personally think if nothing happens in January then nothing will happen, we may have a couple cold days in early to mid february when we may see some light winter precip. nothing to accumulate, but thats what i think.
I'm not even good at guessing things like this. ?Real winter storms are so rare that we only get them one or twice a generation. The ones that gets us are the ones that don't look like a big deal while the ones we get in an arm flapping panic over are likely to give us nothing. The worst snow storm in Alabama history was March 1-3, 1993 with the "Storm of the Century", so we can get snow pretty late into winter. Just as a WAG, I'll guess we'll get a significant although not record breaking ice and snow even sometime this winter. We'll see what happens.
GEOS-5 has been liking the end of week storm..
Quoting 25. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS really wants Andres to develop in the East Pacific this month.

Naga, I think you're right. They've accidentally created CMC_v2.0. :)




*facepalm*

I was hoping it would at least avoid creating longer range ghost storms.
Quoting 26. WeatherBAC:



Just for fun, what is your opinion on a possible ice/snow storm this year? Please Disregard all scientific data and just use personal opinion based on how this winter has gone so far. I personally think if nothing happens in January then nothing will happen, we may have a couple cold days in early to mid february when we may see some light winter precip. nothing to accumulate, but thats what i think.



Going by what has happened so far is not really a good idea. Nothing much happened last year for where I'm from (Nashville, TN) except for some really cold weather the first week. Then February comes, and Bam! ice storm. Good 1/2" of ice on everything, and I took a sledgehammer to the driveway, and that was with salt.

It's anyone's guess as to how the rest of the winter unfolds. There's the big signals that can give us a general clue, but I'd never let my guard down if I were you.
Models are nearly unanimous for a clipper to drop down from the Great Lakes and deliver several inches of snow for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Quoting 19. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thanks. Not a university student yet, still have another year to go*. I'll try to remember that.


* = At least. :P
Quoting 32. Drakoen:

Models are nearly unanimous for a clipper to drop down from the Great Lakes and deliver several inches of snow for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Are you talking about the storm coming to the mid atlantic Wednesday or around that time?
Pretty amazing photo to be sure.

Here in the KC area its been dry, almost no snow.

Ugh. We could use a smidge of the tropical moisture!
Quoting 31. Tornado6042008X:





look at all that high pressure on the west coast... ugh
Quoting 4. Grothar:

Odd structure.




getting pulled apart by the Southern Jetstream



adding more ice
its starting soon
Amazing photo of the centre of the storm.
Thank you very much for sharing it with us Dr. Masters.

I am sure that if the publisher is contacted, the date time, celestial orientation and height above earth surface will be forthcoming.
I increased the pixel rate 4 fold on photo shop and then cropped the centre out of the main picture.
On amplification of the resulting modified photo centre details can be seen.
Its very interesting the cloud formation across the centre of the eye, I presume at near sea level.
Also the light of the lightning on the lower left eye wall from the position of the picture
As my photo modifications are URLess then I cant paste it in due to lack of know how.
Quoting LargoFl:


You're 7 day is real cold compared to ours here in Fort Myers. Our forecast shows us in the 70s everyday for the next 7 days here. You're showing a high of 59 and 60. That's pretty chilly.
We'll have to see how things work out.
a white hole; harbinger of the approaching ice age
Sunday morning over Fort Myers Beach
Sunrise in progress
I actually like the shot of the clouds.


raIN COMING
good sunday morning everyone!!

starting to rain but its littie ice on the ground in east haven,conn
Good morning

It's 77, going for a high of 80, with a few light showers around. Waiting for it to clear up and heading off to Water Island for a day of sun and fun today. This was taken last week while I was "glamping" on Water Island. The island off in the distance is St. Thomas.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

img src="">
The Glowing Eye of the Storm

Wonderful.

Thanks to the astronaut for taking it, thanks to those - ever fewer - in government who still provide funds for something other than destruction and thanks to Jeff for publishing this remarkable image.

Grazie Samantha Cristoforetti per questa bella immagine di un mondo bellissimo!
I would also like to add something here. It is high season here in the Caribbean with the cruise ships. People (especially families) pay hundreds of dollars to arrive in St. Thomas and jump one of the boats (such as that pirate ship that is moored in the picture) to Water Island. If there are any of you who are planning a trip this way, message me and I will tell you how to do it from a local perspective for $10.00 a person, return. I'm not promoting a business, just trying to save you a couple of bucks!

-L
Statement as of 6:44 AM EST on January 18, 2015
...Spotty freezing rain early this morning...

Temperatures across New York City...western Long Island...coastal southwestern Connecticut and southeastern portions of northeast New Jersey...are running from the upper 20s to lower 30s and slowly rising. Moving over the cold surface is spotty light rain. The combination of these two ingredients should produce pockets of light freezing rain until temperatures rise above freezing by 9am.

Motorist should be alert for localized slick spots through 9 am across New York City...western Long Island...coastal southwestern Connecticut and southeastern portions of northeast New Jersey.
Tropical Depression Mekkhala

Tropical Depression Mekkhala
Last Updated Jan 18, 2015 12 GMT
Location 15.1N 121.8E Movement NNW
Wind 35 MPH

East Haven, Connecticut 6:33 AM EST on January 18, 2015 27 F Overcast
East Haven, Connecticut 37 F Overcast 9:04 AM EST on January 18, 2015

temp moving up fast 10 in two hours!
2014 global temp records....

29536-high

33362 -low

Link
North to south isobars over Canada and Arctic Ocean..


Mekkhala triggered a landslide..

Landslide in Philippines on Sunday, 18 January, 2015 at 05:19 (05:19 AM) UTC.
Description
At least 10 persons were believed killed in a landslide that occurred at the farming village of Inang Maharang in the town of Manito in Albay early on Sunday as Tropical Storm "Amang" was crossing through the province. Cedric Daep, head of the Albay Public Safety and Emergency Management Office (Apsemo), said they received a report from his cousin, town Mayor Cesar Daep, that the persons feared dead were residents of two houses that were buried in the landslide. Daep said two military helicopters from the Philippine Air Force Tactical Operations Group 5 based in Legazpi City were deployed to the area to assist in the search operation and to rescue at least 100 trapped villagers, as the landslide also covered the lone road linking Inang Maharang to the town proper of Manito. The landslide was triggered by heavy rains brought on by Amang, he said.
Quoting 54. yoboi:

2014 global temp records....

29536-high

33362 -low

Link


Well you might as well present all the data instead of your two points taken out of context, huh?

Daily
Hi Max: 29536, Hi Min: 39012 Total: 68548
Lo Max: 33362, Lo Min: 25369 Total: 58731

Monthly
Hi Max: 1069 Hi Min: 1412 Total: 2481
Lo Max: 1566 Lo Min: 686 Total: 2252

All Time Records:
Hi Max: 48 Hi Min: 84 Total: 132
Lo Max: 16 Lo Min: 14 Total: 40

Wow, interesting stuff when you look at the whole picture instead of trying to purposefully mislead people. Embarrassing.


Biological Hazard in USA on Sunday, 18 January, 2015 at 05:23 (05:23 AM) UTC.
Description
A mysterious gray gooey substance has killed 20 seabirds along San Francisco Bay's eastern shoreline and fouled the feathers of another 69 birds fighting to survive at a Fairfield bird rescue center. State wildlife officials reported Saturday night they have ruled out oil as the contaminant as they continue tests to determine what substance coated the seabirds. Whatever it is, the goo appears to break down the ability of their feathers to protect the birds from hypothermia. "It is a mystery," said Andrew Hughan, a spokesman for the state Department of Fish and Wildlife. "It could take days before we know what it is." Unable to fly, the seabirds were found dead or ailing Friday in the water and shoreline at three places: the San Leandro marina, Hayward Regional Shoreline and Crab Cove in Alameda. San Leandro resident Pat Moore said she was disturbed Friday and Saturday when she saw some dead birds and struggling to pull themselves onto the shoreline near the San Leandro marina. "I have been walking there for 10 years, and I have never seen anything like this," Moore said Saturday night. "It's sad. You see these energetic birds diving into the bay and popping back up. Then you see these birds dazed and struggling just to drag themselves onto land." The affected birds include surf scoters, buffleheads and common goldeneyes. East Bay Regional Park District staff reported the sick and dying birds Friday to the Fish and Wildlife Department, which is leading the investigation. State oil spill crews initially responded, but their tests determined the substance is not petroleum-based, Hughan said. Sixty-nine of the birds were being cared for Saturday night at the International Bird Rescue Center near Fairfield in Solano County, which treats sick, injured or polluted birds. Barbara Callahan, the rescue center's interim executive director, wrote Friday that her staff has not seen the substance before. "Our veterinary and rehabilitation staff is working overtime to ensure all birds transported to us receive optimal emergency care," Callahan wrote in a blog posted by the center. Callahan said Saturday night that the number of troubled birds was declining sharply -- an indication that the worst may be over. Eleven of the dead birds were shipped to a special Fish and Wildlife Department lab, where necropsies will be performed to determine what killed them.
Quoting 57. Naga5000:



Well you might as well present all the data instead of your two points taken out of context, huh?

Daily
Hi Max: 29536, Hi Min: 39012 Total: 68548
Lo Max: 33362, Lo Min: 25369 Total: 58731

Monthly
Hi Max: 1069 Hi Min: 1412 Total: 2481
Lo Max: 1566 Lo Min: 686 Total: 2252

All Time Records:
Hi Max: 48 Hi Min: 84 Total: 132
Lo Max: 16 Lo Min: 14 Total: 40

Wow, interesting stuff when you look at the whole picture instead of trying to purposefully mislead people. Embarrassing.





Sure here is some more context.....
The Nasa climate scientists who claimed 2014 set a new record for global warmth last night admitted they were only 38 per cent sure this was true.

In a press release on Friday, Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’.

The claim made headlines around the world, but yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all.

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.

As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent.

Link




Quoting 42. Sfloridacat5:



You're 7 day is real cold compared to ours here in Fort Myers. Our forecast shows us in the 70s everyday for the next 7 days here. You're showing a high of 59 and 60. That's pretty chilly.
We'll have to see how things work out.

yes another cold front is supposed to come around Friday..we'll see what happens,but surely by me there isn't any dry season huh..rains about every week around here.
Quoting 59. yoboi:



Sure here is some more context.....(snip)


So now I need to give you more statistics lessons? Man you should really understand what you are talking about.

That percentage is a relative probability. It means that compared to all other years in the GISS data set as if they are completely independent events, 2014 has the highest probability of being that warmest at 38% where all years probabilities added equals 100%. To get a better image:



In other words, statistically, 2014 is more likely than ANY other year to be the warmest on record by a long shot. Almost twice as likely for GISS and almost three times as likely for the NOAA dataset.

This was all explained in very clear language in Gavin Schmidt's press release that was posted about here and every major news source. I guess you didn't watch it. Nor do you have an elementary grasp on stats. Again, embrassing that you would just repeat the denial bologsphere gibberish.



Thanks for trying, but it's quite telling that every time the nonsense is debunked, you fail to address it and instead just link to more nonsense which clearly shows you lack a basic understanding of the most simple of concepts needed to discuss this issue.


watch out for flood watch soon!! very heavy rain moving up the east coast starting to see a few reds here!
Re: #59 It's called a Monte Carlo analysis, for more information on what it means, like I have been saying forever, maybe you should read the methodology...

Edit: If anything, a Monte Carlo analysis provides a basis to refute the often heard denialist talking point about uncertainty in the data set. It merely provides a methodology for ranking individual years while focusing on the uncertainty aspect of the data. Which is ironic, because this concept is lost on those who yell the loudest about uncertainty.

Dover Air Force Base, DE Radar heavy rain




wow!!!
#62

Please explain this .....

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.

How can you set a record when the margin of error is 0.1C???? Is the 0.02C net after the margin of error??? really trying to understand this....
Quoting yoboi:
2014 global temp records....

29536-high

33362 -low

Link


Why?
You can go back to the previous blog topic and read two days of non-stop Global Warming (2014 being the warmest year) comments/debate/arguing.

I'm not sure why you cherry picked some information just to get things going again.
Quoting 66. yoboi:

#62

Please explain this .....

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged %u2018record%u2019 amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous %u2018warmest year%u2019, of just two-hundredths of a degree %u2013 or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C %u2013 several times as much.

How can you set a record when the margin of error is 0.1C???? Is the 0.02C net after the margin of error??? really trying to understand this....


That isn't accurate. Can you source that claim with data, I don't think those numbers are accurate? Even if they are, this is why the Monte Carlo technique is helpful as it allows you to rank years with overlapping uncertainties. :Facepalm:
Really bad icing this morning in the Philly area:

Quoting 64. Naga5000:

Re: #59 It's called a Monte Carlo analysis, for more information on what it means, like I have been saying forever, maybe you should read the methodology...

Edit: If anything, a Monte Carlo analysis provides a basis to refute the often heard denialist talking point about uncertainty in the data set. It merely provides a methodology for ranking individual years while focusing on the uncertainty aspect of the data. Which is ironic, because this concept is lost on those who yell the loudest about uncertainty.





A simple explanation from Hotwhopper:


The way I see it, using NOAA figures they say there are five primary years that are the highest recorded global temperature (2014, 2010, 12005, 2013 and 1998). It is 90% certain that one of these is the hottest. The chance that is is 2014 is 48%, The chance that it is 2010 is 18%. The chance that it is 2005 is 13%. The chance that it is 2013 is 6% and the chance that it is 1998 is 5%. In other words, of all the years considered in the historical record, it is MOST likely that it was 2014 that has been the hottest so far.


or in picture form:

Quoting PensacolaDoug:


It's much easier to understand when you realize it's all politics and about control. The vast majority of the population does not look beyond the headlines. Alarmist rhetoric is what is needed to advance their (the lefts) agenda.
Fixed it:

It's much easier to understand fool yourself when you realize manage to convince yourself it's all politics and about control. The vast majority of the population climate scientists does not look beyond the headlines ignore the headlines to concentrate on the evidence. Alarmist rhetoric Non-ideological talk is what is needed to advance their (the lefts) agenda advance the discussion beyond scientists-are-socialists-out-to-take-our-money alarmism.
Quoting 68. PensacolaDoug:



It's much easier to understand when you realize it's all politics and about control. The vast majority of the population does not look beyond the headlines. Alarmist rhetoric is what is needed to advance their (the lefts) agenda.


Translation for those who actually understand statistics: "it's a conspiracy". I wish you would be so "skeptical" about your sources as you are about your scientists. It makes me wonder...
Quoting 72. Neapolitan:





Quoting 68. PensacolaDoug:






Fixed it.
A political filter is always a echo chamber.

Some,thats all they do here.

Never do they bring Science into the conversation.

Considering the leadership in certain committee positions of science will only keep the clown car going in circles.
Quoting 68. PensacolaDoug:



It's much easier to understand when you realize it's all politics and about control. The vast majority of the population does not look beyond the headlines. Alarmist rhetoric is what is needed to advance their (the lefts) agenda.
Howdy Doug..I see good and bad from both sides where politics is concerned , but not everyone is pushing some agenda , right , left ,R , D or "I " which i am " There are people who just want clean air , water , land etc because it is a good thing to do. Nobody is pointing a gun forcing folks to give up there Hummers or by a smaller house for the sake of lowering the carbon emissions. Alternative and renewables are going to take hold eventually anyway. I have stated here before , now is not the time for the U.S. to stop drilling for oil , in fact , it may not be a bad idea to drill more , at least until our economy is strong again. I will probably receive some flack for this post , but that is how I feel about the matter.
Quoting 70. AGWcreationists:

Really bad icing this morning in the Philly area:


geez a good day to NOT take the car out
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-101-102-1 04-106-181700-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...TRENTON...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOY LESTOWN
1037 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

...DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

THOUGH MANY LOCATIONS ARE AT FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING, WITH
THE EARLIER ICE ACCUMULATIONS, ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. IF YOU MUST DRIVE THIS MORNING, PLEASE
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION FOR ICY SPOTS. AVOID UNNECESSARY TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MORNING.

$$
Even though we didn't get a classic El Nino, those Kelvin waves released alot of heat in the atmosphere. That may take a toll on the arctic sea ice this year. A new record minimum wouldn't surprise me. The sea ice extent graph is starting to show it..
How does mo drilling, roll up a better economy? The globe is awash in oil, cheap oil.

I speak from experience as I worked both the refinery end and offshore production as well.

The economy is doing well, a lot better than Jan 09 if you look.

The Dow, Housing,Unemployment, interest rates are all in the green compared to then.

The Saudis want to cut production, but the shale fracking industry is running the show currently.

Try the Oil drum for some intelligent words on it,daily.



Quoting 80. Skyepony:

Even though we didn't get a classic El Nino, those Kelvin waves released alot of heat in the atmosphere. That may take a toll on the arctic sea ice this year. A new record minimum wouldn't surprise me. The sea ice extent graph is starting to show it..



Its a conspiracy, no doubt.

: )
The GFS and ECMWF are once again showing stratospheric warming as we enter February. Although the early January event was impressive when speaking towards the temperature anomalies, zonal winds did not reserve for an extended period of time, and the polar vortex, which had initially split, ended up reforming across the North Pole.

This will be try number 3 to disrupt what has been an incredibly resilient polar vortex this winter season (which is interesting to say the least given the extremely negative QBO).
I knew I could count on you guys to set me straight!

Heres a thought, when the CO2 ppm reaches 400 this summer, no one alive will ever see it below that again...


Or any Human for that matter.


Chew on dat phack folks.

co2now.org


398.78 ppm


Quoting 84. PensacolaDoug:

I knew I could count on you guys to set me straight!




I explained it clearly, so where is the disconnect? Is math a left wing conspiracy now?

I hear the number 9 wants to raise taxes, what a jerk!
Quoting 62. Naga5000:



So now I need to give you more statistics lessons? Man you should really understand what you are talking about.

That percentage is a relative probability. It means that compared to all other years in the GISS data set as if they are completely independent events, 2014 has the highest probability of being that warmest at 38% where all years probabilities added equals 100%. To get a better image:



In other words, statistically, 2014 is more likely than ANY other year to be the warmest on record by a long shot. Almost twice as likely for GISS and almost three times as likely for the NOAA dataset.

This was all explained in very clear language in Gavin Schmidt's press release that was posted about here and every major news source. I guess you didn't watch it. Nor do you have an elementary grasp on stats. Again, embrassing that you would just repeat the denial bologsphere gibberish.



Thanks for trying, but it's quite telling that every time the nonsense is debunked, you fail to address it and instead just link to more nonsense which clearly shows you lack a basic understanding of the most simple of concepts needed to discuss this issue.

It's the difference between "deterministic" and "probabilistic." They are telling you the story in different ways.

Deterministic is if you have to pick one, the best guess, so to speak, using the weight of all available evidence. Looking at it that way, 2014's anomaly is the hottest on record.

Probabilistic adds in the uncertainty component. Because of the uncertainty bars, it is possible that some of the previous average global temperatures were slightly warmer than reported and 2014 was slightly cooler, which would make 2014 in the top 5 or so rather than warmest. The opposite is also possible, other years could be cooler than reported and 2014 could be warmer, making it an even stronger record. Balancing those probabilities out, the year with the highest chance of being warmest on record is likely 2014.

Of course arguing over these probabilities and comparing individual years to other individual years is a fool's errand. Some are trying to find scientific technicalities to try and minimize 2014, when that's not nearly as relevant as the fact that trend of global warming continues.
Quoting 66. yoboi:

#62

Please explain this .....

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this,

No, it didn't.

Did you see their press conference? It was one of their main slides. It's almost like you were not paying attention in any meaningful way and just decided to drop in to whine, complain, distract, twist, and mislead.
Quoting 48. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's 77, going for a high of 80, with a few light showers around. Waiting for it to clear up and heading off to Water Island for a day of sun and fun today. This was taken last week while I was "glamping" on Water Island. The island off in the distance is St. Thomas.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

img src="">


Hi Lindy.

I am inside that bunch of people celebrating "Las Fiestas de la calle San Sebastian" in old San Juan.The weather has been fabulous here on all 4 days that end tonight with the closing parade. I don't know if you have comed here to attend in past years but there is plenty of entertainment etc to go thru.Is like a carnival like Madri Gras.





Quoting 89. yoboi:



I will look and make sure the data is correct.....I understand the method you are trying to explain.....But I like my science more than 38% sure when telling me something is true.....I consider the process that was used not only cherry picking but an ethical violation within the scientific community.......


No, you really just don't understand the difference. What a gross statement that shows exactly how unqualified and off base you are. In the future, please check your sources before blindly copy/pasting from science denialist articles and websites.

Given this data:



Which year is most likely the warmest on record? and Why? Remember to show your work...
Quoting 94. Naga5000:



No, you really just don't understand the difference. What a gross statement that shows exactly how unqualified and off base you are.


You are correct I nee to verify the data first....but if it is .02C within a .1C margin of error I will stand by my statement....
Ethics ?


Aye, yi,yi,...


My Shrimp almost became a deadly projectile...as it flew out me pie hole.

Quoting 90. ScottLincoln:


It's the difference between "deterministic" and "probabilistic." They are telling you the story in different ways.

Deterministic is if you have to pick one, the best guess, so to speak, using the weight of all available evidence. Looking at it that way, 2014's anomaly is the hottest on record.

Probabilistic adds in the uncertainty component. Because of the uncertainty bars, it is possible that some of the previous average global temperatures were slightly warmer than reported and 2014 was slightly cooler, which would make 2014 in the top 5 or so rather than warmest. The opposite is also possible, other years could be cooler than reported and 2014 could be warmer, making it an even stronger record. Balancing those probabilities out, the year with the highest chance of being warmest on record is 2014.

Of course arguing over these probabilities and comparing individual years to other individual years is a fool's errand. Some are trying to find scientific technicalities to try and minimize 2014, when that's not nearly as relevant as the fact that trend of global warming continues.


Like I said, this method is really an academic method of shutting up the uncertainty monsters. Unfortunately, as we see today, this data in the hands of the willfully ignorant or purposefully misleading only causes harm.

It's pretty clear stuff if either A) you have a background in stats or B) you watched the press conference. Obviously people like to attack the data with not having either.
Quoting 87. Naga5000:



I explained it clearly, so where is the disconnect? Is math a left wing conspiracy now?

I hear the number 9 wants to raise taxes, what a jerk!

Math has always be a conspiracy of the leftists to indoctrinate children into understanding science!

Seriously Doug, this conspiracy garbage is starting to get really old. So so so incredibly old. Have you ever taken the effort to buy a book on climate to even just double-check your beliefs? Or even walked to the library to check one out? For your own sake, make the effort, before it's too late. You're eventually going to be left in the dust blabbering on about conspiracies and leftists but reality will have moved on so far beyond that you're going to be ignored.
The Song Remains the Same



Quoting 87. Naga5000:



I explained it clearly, so where is the disconnect? Is math a left wing conspiracy now?




No, but facts are.
Facts are known to have a Liberal bias.

: P
Quoting 83. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The GFS and ECMWF are once again showing stratospheric warming as we enter February. Although the early January event was impressive when speaking towards the temperature anomalies, zonal winds did not reserve for an extended period of time, and the polar vortex, which had initially split, ended up reforming across the North Pole.

This will be try number 3 to disrupt what has been an incredibly resilient polar vortex this winter season (which is interesting to say the least given the extremely negative QBO).
Yep..The low over the Barents Sea has had an affect on the AO. Hemispheric zonal flow helps keep Arctic air north. If the low is absorbed by larger polar lows , the cold will flow into the U.S. If the MJO happens to be stronger than forecast ( right now it is forecast to weaken ) things will change rather quick.
Quoting 96. Patrap:

Ethics ?


Aye, yi,yi,...


My Shrimp almost became a deadly projectile...as it flew out me pie hole.


Thanks Pat...I thought it impossible for me to smile today...We all know how important ethics are in the world of politics...I have seen people from the same party lines punch each other in the face for a seat in da house...:)
The End of the Partisan Divide Over Climate Change

The revelation late last week that global average temperatures set a new record in 2014 seemed to underscore a political and cultural shift on climate change that, by many accounts, was already well underway. From the stock markets and Wall Street to the boardrooms of Big Oil — and even the living rooms of Republican voters — the era of reflexive skepticism and denial of basic climate science appears to be coming to a close.

That won’t likely mean an end to partisan bickering, of course. But as the adage goes, the first step to solving a problem is admitting that you have one.



That’s precisely what the American Petroleum Institute did when it released its annual State of American Energy Report two weeks ago. Amid its bullish assessment of the nation’s ongoing boom in shale oil and gas, the leading fossil fuel trade group clearly and unequivocally acknowledged the threat of global warming, and highlighted — at some length — the steady rise of solar power as an encouraging sign.

“Few things threaten America’s future prosperity more than climate change,” the report declared. “But there is growing hope: Every 2.5 minutes of every single day, the U.S. solar industry is helping to fight this battle by flipping the switch on another completed solar project.” The report goes on to note that the solar power sector has shaved installation costs and enjoyed over 40 percent growth over the last year:

Simply put, when looking at America’s energy future, solar can be a real game changer, providing more and more homes, businesses, schools and government entities across the United States with clean, reliable and affordable electricity while also helping states to meet proposed new obligations under … the Clean Air Act.

....more, as posting full articles is banned by TWCC seems.

Seems a slow descent into mediocrity is now in place.

Been a good ride, but well....


Fini'

I
Quoting 103. hydrus:

Thanks Pat...I thought it impossible for me to smile today...We all know how important ethics are in the world of politics...I have seen people from the same party lines punch each other in the face for a seat in da house...:)


U should see my Post IKE, portlight start up wu mail..then.

Mo knives in it than a School caferteria.

Have a Good day.

Careful, the egos are watching closely.
I have had a request to post the modified images of the Eye of Bansi which I mentioned earlier today.
The photos have been modified by increasing their pixels and enhancing the colours as well as cropping them down to their centres.
Is possible to see quite few details inside the eye along with cross eye cloud formation at a low level I assume, as the lightning is lighting the tops of the clouds.
I slightly deepened the colours to improve the contrast and make the features clearer.





These kinds of photos of hurricane events give quite a bit of insight into what is going on at the other side of the "cloud mirror."

I have not done anything like this before but if you look on my photos in the Wunder Photos then you get a bigger and much clearer picture as they don't copy to the blog comments very well.

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/PlazaRed/
Quoting 92. Tropicsweatherpr:



Hi Lindy.

I am inside that bunch of people celebrating "Las Fiestas de la calle San Sebastian" in old San Juan.The weather has been fabulous here on all 4 days that end tonight with the closing parade. I don't know if you have comed here to attend in past years but there is plenty of entertainment etc to go thru.Is like a carnival like Madri Gras.








You had me laughing over here. I think it should be a goal for us to each hit every celebration on all islands within an 80-mile radius. Imagine, St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix carnivals, all the celebrations in Puerto Rico.... then add in all the statutory holidays....should be good for about 363 days a year; don't you think? ;-)

Looks like fun where you are right now!

Lindy
109. vis0
     Thank You to Mother Earth for remaining steady as she could for the picture (except in FY2E shots)
     Astronaut Sam Cristoforetti
     People at NASA
     The builders of the space equipment and living quarters.(all over this WORLD)
     Dr. Masters & Member TropicalAnalystwx13 (post#586 previous blogbyte))
     and the maker of the "blue dot" flash used ;-b



look at all this rain
this gulf low pressure crosses florida into the atlantic........................
Rebuttal: math is hard!

Discuss.


Quoting 94. Naga5000:



No, you really just don't understand the difference. What a gross statement that shows exactly how unqualified and off base you are. In the future, please check your sources before blindly copy/pasting from science denialist articles and websites.

Given this data:



Which year is most likely the warmest on record? and Why? Remember to show your work...
will the eddie go on wednesday? good chance for it waimea bay oahu
114. vis0
Quoting 9. Grothar:

Poor TA. He had just posted that in the previous blog right after the Doc's entry. I can hear him now

?&%#@?.
   TA:: TA:: 12:02 AM GMT on January 18, 2015
as opposed to
DR:: 02:10 AM GMT on January 18, 2015 (though i figure it took the Dr. longer to generate intellectual & creative words versus copy n paste, but i still say TAwx13 showed us first.


I STAND (SLOUCH) CORRECTED READ POST 313 ON THIS BLOGBYTE that Dr. Masters mailed to members (mailed?, a benefit of being a paying member or are those mailed to all, for others to know i don't use WxU mail anymore and last sent $$ to wxu in ~2002)
significant impacts have occurred in the Northeast region, including near the heavily-populated I-95 corridor. Reports of accidents, slick roads and closures due to light icing on Sunday morning were numerous from southeast Pennsylvania to southern New England. This is another example that shows it only takes a small amount of ice accumulation to cause big problems on roadways.

Among the impacts are a major pileup on I-76 northwest of Philadelphia and more than 400 accidents since midnight in New Jersey. You can find photos, video and more on the travel problems


MAYBE SOME T.STORMS WITH THIS RAIN TO
For some reason I have never seen this insane video of the Phil Campbell tornado. Volume up for full effect...

Link
I had a request to repost PlazaRed's enhanced pics full size;) These are incredible!





Afternoon, WU! It's a beautiful day here, 63F, with clear, blue skies. Absolutely beautiful day!

Quoting 90. ScottLincoln:


It's the difference between "deterministic" and "probabilistic." They are telling you the story in different ways.

Deterministic is if you have to pick one, the best guess, so to speak, using the weight of all available evidence. Looking at it that way, 2014's anomaly is the hottest on record.

Probabilistic adds in the uncertainty component. Because of the uncertainty bars, it is possible that some of the previous average global temperatures were slightly warmer than reported and 2014 was slightly cooler, which would make 2014 in the top 5 or so rather than warmest. The opposite is also possible, other years could be cooler than reported and 2014 could be warmer, making it an even stronger record. Balancing those probabilities out, the year with the highest chance of being warmest on record is likely 2014.

Of course arguing over these probabilities and comparing individual years to other individual years is a fool's errand. Some are trying to find scientific technicalities to try and minimize 2014, when that's not nearly as relevant as the fact that trend of global warming continues.

This is a really good, succinct, explanation of the difference between the two approaches.

Just reading through the new blog, and want to thank Scott, Naga & John for their posts regarding the statistical analyses pertaining to NOAA/NASA's recent statement. I saw the same page that yoboi's been posting, and had to stop and really think about it...it's been many years since I last had stats, or even had to use them...and I certainly never did a Monte Carlo analysis...

Quoting 101. Patrap:

Facts are known to have a Liberal bias.

: P

Pat, this is the funniest one-liner I've seen in a while. I'm keeping it :)

And thanks for the link to the Forbes article - very interesting read. Yale's poll was quite the eye opener.
Quoting 106. hydrus:




The WPC and it's anti-Florida rain bias.

lol jk, but sometimes it seems like it, this graphic doesn't make sense to me given that modes accumulate more than that over the state.
Quoting 98. ScottLincoln:


Math has always be a conspiracy of the leftists to indoctrinate children into understanding science!

Seriously Doug, this conspiracy garbage is starting to get really old. So so so incredibly old. Have you ever taken the effort to buy a book on climate to even just double-check your beliefs? Or even walked to the library to check one out? For your own sake, make the effort, before it's too late. You're eventually going to be left in the dust blabbering on about conspiracies and leftists but reality will have moved on so far beyond that you're going to be ignored.


Kinda tired of the assumptions that all scientific leaning people are leftists as well, I know personally science professors who are quite conservative, I would consider myself conservative, although I suppose to some, simply liking and supporting science makes me part of a vast left left wing conspiracy.

I guess in the end, the easiest way to reject those who have accomplished hard work is to label them elitists.

I remember telling a neighbor over last summer break the importance of supporting Florida wildlife conservation, this neighbor said "Oh so those libby tree huggers been changing your ways up there at college eh? Don't listen to them, I always thought you were a nice conservative young man, don't let um' fool ya".


Kinda funny how conservation is now anti-conservative to some? WUT
Quoting 87. Naga5000:



I explained it clearly, so where is the disconnect? Is math a left wing conspiracy now?

I hear the number 9 wants to raise taxes, what a jerk!


Naturally, given that math is powerful, logical, and you learn it at school. Therefore it's the substance of elitists, and is forged in the mind of Satan, right?
Quoting 68. PensacolaDoug:



It's much easier to understand when you realize it's all politics and about control. The vast majority of the population does not look beyond the headlines. Alarmist rhetoric is what is needed to advance their (the lefts) agenda.


This video shows us why Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson is likely to be the most logical choice to take up where Carl Sagan left off as an Ambassador of Science - "Neil deGrasse Tyson shares meaning of life with 6-year-old, nails it" This is well worth watching, and humorous as well.
Looks like the ECWMF have dropped the January 25th storm.If this keeps up this winter will be one of the least snowiest.Wet when its warm and dry when its cold,which is something the winter of 2010-2011 did all to well.It would seem like a repeat is in the making....
The ECWMF however does show some sort of moderate snow taking up shop over D.C Wednesday from the clipper.
Link
Quoting 108. VirginIslandsVisitor:



You had me laughing over here. I think it should be a goal for us to each hit every celebration on all islands within an 80-mile radius. Imagine, St. Thomas, St. John and St. Croix carnivals, all the celebrations in Puerto Rico.... then add in all the statutory holidays....should be good for about 363 days a year; don't you think? ;-)

Looks like fun where you are right now!

Lindy


Agree with that. Look at the Live stream
131. vis0
Quoting 87. Naga5000:



I explained it clearly, so where is the disconnect? Is math a left wing conspiracy now?

I hear the number 9 wants to raise taxes, what a jerk!

     YES after clicking quote 18 times (8 mins. after pg fully loaded)  it finally opened, technology?
As usual, pay attn to weather watches , NE floods or ICE.and when i wanted to correct that NAGA5000 not Patrap posted what made me laff, nothing updated so i post a capture of my comment. HERE::
NFL Playoffs conditions in Seattle. Cool, rainy, and windy.

Seattle Boeing, Washington (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM PST on January 18, 2015
Light Rain
53 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: 44 °F
Wind: 18 mph from the South

Wind Gust: 32 mph
Pressure: 30.05 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
It's been a very bad day, especially in Philly. Tons of crashes. Three deaths so far, all in accidents. In no way was this expected to be a high impact event. Forecast was totally blown and local mets are even admitting that. On the bright side a lot of the creeks aren't flooding because they're completely frozen.

Oh that's a classic!
Quoting 133. Sfloridacat5:

NFL Playoffs conditions in Seattle. Cool, rainy, and windy.

Seattle Boeing, Washington (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM PST on January 18, 2015
Light Rain
53 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: 44 °F
Wind: 18 mph from the South

Wind Gust: 32 mph
Pressure: 30.05 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles


January in the Pacific Northwest? What's new? :)
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

DEC003-NJC005-007-015-033-PAC017-029-045-091-101- 182230-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150118T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAMDEN NJ-BUCKS PA-MONTGOMERY PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-DELAWARE PA-
GLOUCESTER NJ-CHESTER PA-NEW CASTLE DE-BURLINGTON NJ-SALEM NJ-
316 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EST FOR URBAN
AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN NORTHERN SALEM...NORTHWESTERN
BURLINGTON...NORTHERN NEW CASTLE...EASTERN CHESTER...NORTHERN
GLOUCESTER...DELAWARE...PHILADELPHIA...SOUTHEASTE RN MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHERN BUCKS AND NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES...

AT 308 PM EST FLOODING WAS NOW OCCURRING ON THE CRISTINA RIVER IN
NORTHERN DELAWARE AND THE PENNYPACK IN PHILADELPHIA. IT SHOULD SOON
BEGIN FLOODING ON THE CRUM CREEK IN NEWTOWN SQUARE. THE COOPER RIVER
AT HADDONFIELD NEW JERSEY WAS RISING STEADILY AND MAY REACH FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING.

THE RAIN HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED IN NORTHERN DELAWARE AND WILL BE
DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY OR ENDING BY 4 PM IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLOOD WARNING AREA OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY.

THAT WILL MEAN THAT FARMLAND AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
EASING AND ENDING.

HOWEVER...SMALL STREAMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE RISING INTO THIS
EVENING AND SO PORTIONS OF THIS WARNING MAY BE EXTENDED AT 5
PM...PENDING FURTHER REVIEW OF STREAM STAGE TRENDS.

Quoting 134. wxgeek723:

It's been a very bad day, especially in Philly. Tons of crashes. Three deaths so far, all in accidents. In no way was this expected to be a high impact event. Forecast was totally blown and local mets are even admitting that. On the bright side a lot of the creeks aren't flooding because they're completely frozen.




I don't think it's the met's fault, sounds more to me like a few bad drivers that causes a chain reaction.

Here in FL even if it's light rain, people do all kinds of ridiculous things like they are all new drivers from Los Angeles that have barely seen rain and haven't driven in it before, even though drive in an area that get's a lot of rain.

I could be wrong, just a thought.
Quoting 138. Jedkins01:



I don't think it's the met's fault, sounds more to me like a few bad drivers that causes a chain reaction.

Here in FL even if it's light rain, people do all kinds of ridiculous things like they are all new drivers from Los Angeles that barely seen rain and haven't driven in it before, even though drive in an area that get's a lot of rain.

I could be wrong, just a thought.

The forecast called for 0.01-0.03" of ice accretion. Some locations picked up over 0.3" of freezing rain. The forecast definitely had room for improvement. However, I don't put all the blame on the mets. They did the best they could based on what the models were saying, and they did warn well in advance that the roads could be slippery in spots and travel was discouraged. It was a marginal setup that just happened to overperform, much like the Atlanta Snowjam.
Re: 124


SAYS YOU!
World Storm Round Up

Good BBC weather video report of the various storm systems currently affecting Madagascar, southern Africa, the Philippines and Australia.

Link
Quoting 134. Jeff Masters:

Bansi one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record in the Southwest Indian Ocean

According to TWC's Michael Lowry, very few stronger tropical cyclones have been recorded in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The strongest storm on record to form there was Tropical Cyclone Agnielle of November 1995, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds. The only other Cat 5s to form in the basin were Geralda (January 1994) and Gafilo (March 2004), which had top sustained winds of 165 mph and 160 mph, respectively. Bansi was a Category 1 storm on Saturday evening, and was headed east-southeastwards towards colder waters and an expected dissipation on Monday.


There were some other category 5 storms in the Southwestern-Indian Ocean:

Hary (March 2002): 160 mph
Kalunde (March 2003): 160 mph
Bento (November 2004): 160 mph
Edzani (January 2010): 160 mph
Bruce (December 2013): 160 mph
Quoting 139. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The forecast called for 0.01-0.03" of ice accretion. Some locations picked up over 0.3" of freezing rain. The forecast definitely had room for improvement. However, I don't put all the blame on the mets. They did the best they could based on what the models were saying, and they did warn well in advance that the roads could be slippery in spots and travel was discouraged. It was a marginal setup that just happened to overperform, much like the Atlanta Snowjam.


Well that's the thing, if I saw that forecast, I would be exercising caution, and I'm sure most other drivers did as well, but as I'm sure you know, there are always some people that don't take the dangers of driving seriously and drive like its a game and put others at risk, whether it's fair weather or dangerous like ice.

People that are that way are especially prone to blowing off situations like that.

I'm just glad we rarely get ice in Florida, because even though we have statistically one of the best traffic systems for pedestrians and traffic safety education, much of Florida, especially the Tampa Bay area, has one of the highest, if not highest rates of traffic deaths and serious accidents both involving drivers and pedestrians.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT. ANY WATER
STILL ON THE ROADS WILL REFREEZE CREATING ICY CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN.
145. beell
Quoting 139. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The forecast called for 0.01-0.03" of ice accretion. Some locations picked up over 0.3" of freezing rain. The forecast definitely had room for improvement. However, I don't put all the blame on the mets. They did the best they could based on what the models were saying, and they did warn well in advance that the roads could be slippery in spots and travel was discouraged. It was a marginal setup that just happened to overperform, much like the Atlanta Snowjam.


They (mets) failed to err on the side of caution wrt the pre-existing cold temperatures of elevated surfaces prior to the onset of stronger WAA and heavier precip. I would not consider this an overperforming event. The physics of the event performed as expected.

WU Blogger Pcroton was ahead of the pack on this one.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


This is for Logan County, Oklahoma (north of Oklahoma City):

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
AGENCY NAME CITY STATE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
GUTHRIE FIRE CHIEF.

PEOPLE BETWEEN PRAIRIE GROVE TO HIGHWAY 105 AND CHOCTAW RD AND
TRIPLE XXX HAVE BEEN REQUESTED TO EVACUATE DUE TO AN APPROACHING
WILDFIRE. PLEASE PROCEED TO HIGHWAY 105 AND DRIVE WEST OR EAST TO
EVACUATE.


wow! maybe some t.storms with this rain soon
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:

For some reason I have never seen this insane video of the Phil Campbell tornado. Volume up for full effect...

Link


Jesus. That's intense.
the temp in new haven was 27F at 6am this morning now its 51F!!
Quoting 138. Jedkins01:



I don't think it's the met's fault, sounds more to me like a few bad drivers that causes a chain reaction.

Here in FL even if it's light rain, people do all kinds of ridiculous things like they are all new drivers from Los Angeles that have barely seen rain and haven't driven in it before, even though drive in an area that get's a lot of rain.

I could be wrong, just a thought.
VERY HEAVY RAIN At 7PM IN BOSTON big football game tonight watch out for the peolpe going to the game
Quoting 142. ChateauChalon:



There were some other category 5 storms in the Southwestern-Indian Ocean:

Hary (March 2002): 160 mph
Kalunde (March 2003): 160 mph
Bento (November 2004): 160 mph
Edzani (January 2010): 160 mph
Bruce (December 2013): 160 mph

Yep, I pointed this out last night too. I even private messaged him about it, but I don't think Dr. Masters has checked back yet to change it.


Quoting 14. 1900hurricane:

According to TWC's Michael Lowry, very few stronger tropical cyclones have been recorded in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The strongest storm on record to form there was Tropical Cyclone Agnielle of November 1995, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 175 mph winds. The only other Cat 5s to form in the basin were Geralda (January 1994) and Gafilo (March 2004), which had top sustained winds of 165 mph and 160 mph, respectively.

There have been plenty other category 5 storms in the SW Indian Ocean. Bruce, while originating in the Australian region, became category 5 after crossing just last season. Also Edzani in 2010, Bento in 2004, Kalunde from 2003, and Hary from 2002 are other such examples. And these are just since 2000!

In fact the 7 category 5s in the SW Indian Ocean since 2000 is very comparable to how many the Atlantic has had in that same timespan, which was 8.

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181655

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

VALID 181700Z - 191200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE...WRN/CNTRL/NRN OK...AND FAR NWRN TX...

OVERALL FORECAST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS ON
TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN/CNTRL/NRN OK...AND
FAR NWRN TX...WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST BEING A NWD
AND EWD EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA INTO NERN OK. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE
SURFACE HEATING AND THE RAPID EROSION OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION NOTED
ON THE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS NWRN OK INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 50S /ALREADY UP 20-30 DEGREES F FROM MORNING LOWS/...RESULTING
IN RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT. CONCURRENTLY...SUSTAINED SWLY
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF WRN
OK WITH NUMEROUS MESONET SITES RECORDING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. AS
DIABATIC HEATING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON...A
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED DRYING AND DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MIXING OF A 50-MPH WSWLY SPEED MAX AT 850 MB /APPROXIMATELY
1-KM AGL/ MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. GIVEN DORMANT/DRY FINE
FUELS OVER THIS REGION...THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

..JIRAK.. 01/18/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0350 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NERN STATES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHILE PROGRESSIVE AND GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN STATES. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CNTRL ROCKY MTNS WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING...AND A SFC LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS AND ERN NM EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WRN OK
THROUGH THE DAY.

...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN/CNTRL/NERN OK...NWRN TX...FAR ERN NM...AND
FAR SRN KS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
LEE TROUGHING E OF THE ROCKIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE S-CNTRL CONUS.
AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING COUPLED WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY FALL TO BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
PERHAPS LOWER 70S...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ELEVATED AREA.

EXPANDED THE ELEVATED AREA NWD TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND FAR SRN KS. WHILE WINDS WILL TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL
WITH NWD EXTENT...AROUND 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED...SIGNIFICANT
DRYING/WARMING OWING TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY 1-
AND 10-HR FUELS JUSTIFIED THE NWD EXPANSION. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF
CNTRL/NRN/NERN OK THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...MAINLY OWING TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. THEREFORE EXPANDED THE
ELEVATED AREA TO INCLUDE MORE OF THESE AREAS.

PREVIOUS TWO DAYS OF PRECONDITIONING/DRYING OF FINER FUELS HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK...AND NWRN TX...AND
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THESE
LOCATIONS IN OVER A WEEK. GIVEN THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH AND RH
VALUES FALLING TO 10-20 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS...HAVE
INTRODUCED A CRITICAL AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...WRN
OK...AND NWRN TX. LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CRITICAL AREA HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING 20 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MIXING
ENSUES WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THEN BECOMES MAXIMIZED FROM ABOUT
18-23Z. THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND RH
VALUES SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS.
Quoting 128. BaltimoreBrian:

Sunday reading

(snipped links)

!!! Ocean Life Faces Mass Extinction, Broad Study Says


I was reading this yesterday...quite troubling. Would love to read the full study in Science, but hit the paywall. This caught my eye though:

"Contracts for seabed mining now cover 450,000 square miles underwater, the researchers found, up from zero in 2000."

Call me ignorant, but I had no idea it was to this scale.

Question (and I think I've asked before) - what is the differentiation between **** and !!! in your flagging system?
Quoting LAbonbon:

That's a strange satellite image. Not the low that's causing the problems in Philly but how those high clouds just vanish from south to north. I would put it down to an artifact but my temperature at 1:30 was 65 with a dewpoint of 47. At 1:45, it was 67 with a dewpoint of 23. I don't think I've ever seen a dewpoint collapse that quickly. I even got out my century old sling psychrometer because I thought my weather station has gone haywire but it was right on the money. I wonder if the same thing occurred further north and contributed to the Oklahoma fires?
Quoting 155. LAbonbon:

I was reading this yesterday...quite troubling. Would love to read the full study in Science, but hit the paywall. This caught my eye though:

"Contracts for seabed mining now cover 450,000 square miles underwater, the researchers found, up from zero in 2000."

Call me ignorant, but I had no idea it was to this scale.

Question (and I think I've asked before) - what is the differentiation between **** and !!! in your flagging system?

Plain is of ordinary importance, * is a little more important. *** is a little more important than that. !!! is the most important of all.
Quoting 153. 1900hurricane:


Yep, I pointed this out last night too. I even private messaged him about it, but I don't think Dr. Masters has checked back yet to change it.





--------------------------------

6:00 AM UTC January 3 2010
Tropical Low 03U (1000 hPa) located at 10.2S 92.7E


6:00 AM UTC January 4 2010
Tropical Low 03U (1002 hPa) located at 10.7S 89.9E

03U became "08-20092010" and eventually Edzani on January 6 2010..

Jeff Master's was giving example of cyclone that formed in the southwest Indian Ocean.

Edzani formed in the southeast Indian Ocean (east of 90E)

..and of course Bruce formed in the southeast Indian ocean as well for it to keep it's Australian name.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
VERY HEAVY RAIN At 7PM IN BOSTON big football game tonight watch out for the peolpe going to the game


There's also a big UFC event tonight in Boston.
Quoting 156. sar2401:

That's a strange satellite image. Not the low that's causing the problems in Philly but how those high clouds just vanish from south to north. I would put it down to an artifact but my temperature at 1:30 was 65 with a dewpoint of 47. At 1:45, it was 67 with a dewpoint of 23. I don't think I've ever seen a dewpoint collapse that quickly. I even got out my century old sling psychrometer because I thought my weather station has gone haywire but it was right on the money. I wonder if the same thing occurred further north and contributed to the Oklahoma fires?

That's quite the drop, Sar. Here are the official weather observations at Guthrie Airport. They show a drop from 20 to 17 between 1 and 2 pm CST. Nothing like you saw in AL, but immediately prior changes there (in OK) were 1 degree increments. Out of curiosity, I looked at the official observations for Baton Rouge - we had a 6 degree drop in dewpoint (35 to 29) between 11 and 12 noon CST. Again, not what you saw, but prior to, and after that change, the incremental changes were 1 to 2 degrees.

From SPC's updated outlook (1055 CST):

"SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE
SURFACE HEATING AND THE RAPID EROSION OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION NOTED
ON THE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS NWRN OK INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 50S /ALREADY UP 20-30 DEGREES F FROM MORNING LOWS/...RESULTING
IN RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT. CONCURRENTLY...SUSTAINED SWLY
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF WRN
OK WITH NUMEROUS MESONET SITES RECORDING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH."

And they discussed low RH's in their previous discussion (3:50 am CST) as well.
Bureau of Meteorology states that the tropical low may develop into Tropical Cyclone "Lam" later today..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL LOW
5:49 AM WST January 19 2015
===================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1003 hPa) located at 17.7S 123.6 or 45 kilometers south of Derby and 145 kilometers east of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

The tropical low is expected to move offshore from the west Kimberley coast later today. Once over open water, the tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone this evening or overnight. The system will then track generally parallel to the Pilbara coast before weakening on Tuesday.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may develop in coastal parts between Broome and Port Hedland during Monday evening, and possibly as far north as Cape Leveque for a brief period. Depending on how close the system tracks to the Pilbara coast, gales may extend west to Dampier on Tuesday morning and possibly as far west as Exmouth Tuesday evening.

Areas of heavy rain are expected over the north and west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier including Broome, Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for coastal areas from Dampier to Exmouth including Onslow.
Quoting beell:


They (mets) failed to err on the side of caution wrt the pre-existing cold temperatures of elevated surfaces prior to the onset of stronger WAA and heavier precip. I would not consider this an overperforming event. The physics of the event performed as expected.

WU Blogger Pcroton was ahead of the pack on this one.
They thought about it 3:36 AM and even wrote exactly the conditions that would cause the ice storm to follow. They chose not issue an advisory then but, by 7:00 AM, they were already behind the power curve and scrambling to issue warnings. As you say, sometimes it's better to err on the side of caution, not that any warning stops people from driving crazy.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRENGTHENING AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION, A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. THIS OCCURS AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. AS A RESULT, A BAND OF RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS
NORTHWARD AND STRONG FORCING WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD PROMOTE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE ONSET OF THIS MAY BE DELAYED
TO ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM JUST ENOUGH, ALTHOUGH THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE COLD AND WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESPOND.
THEREFORE, SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE CANNOT RULED OUT FOR A
TIME MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL,
BUT IT ONLY TAKES A TRACE OF ICE TO TRIGGER AN ADVISORY. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH REGARDING THE TEMPERATURES AT THE
ONSET AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A SMALL TIME FRAME OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED, WE HELD OFF ON ADVISORY.
Quoting 157. BaltimoreBrian:



Plain is ordinary, * is a little more important. *** is a little more important than that. !!! is the most important of all.

Good to know. Thanks :)

Seriously, is knowledge of the extent of seabed mining common knowledge? I feel a bit stupid (?) embarrassed(?) clueless(?) about not being aware of this... :(

It's just not easy keeping up with everything...
I'm not sure how much sea-bed mining is actually taking place. The area referred to is where it has been permitted. However, I expect sea-bed mining will soon be a big endeavor, with big impacts. Sea-bed mining ties in with this article too.

Aside from a diamond mining project, there is not much deep sea mining going on. But there are some big projects being negotiated and planned, primarily in the western Pacific. Papua New Guinea is negotiating with mining companies to exploit seabed copper and other metal deposits.
165. beell
Quoting 162. sar2401:

They thought about it 3:36 AM and even wrote exactly the conditions that would cause the ice storm to follow. They chose not issue an advisory then but, by 7:00 AM, they were already behind the power curve and scrambling to issue warnings. As you say, sometimes it's better to err on the side of caution, not that any warning stops people from driving crazy.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRENGTHENING AREA OF MID LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. IN ADDITION, A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. THIS OCCURS AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GETS CLOSER AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. AS A RESULT, A BAND OF RAIN QUICKLY DEVELOPS AND EXPANDS
NORTHWARD AND STRONG FORCING WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD PROMOTE
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE ONSET OF THIS MAY BE DELAYED
TO ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM JUST ENOUGH, ALTHOUGH THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE COLD AND WILL TAKE LONGER TO RESPOND.
THEREFORE, SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE CANNOT RULED OUT FOR A
TIME MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL,
BUT IT ONLY TAKES A TRACE OF ICE TO TRIGGER AN ADVISORY. SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH REGARDING THE TEMPERATURES AT THE
ONSET AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A SMALL TIME FRAME OF FREEZING
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED, WE HELD OFF ON ADVISORY.


In a perfectly wired world, we could use ground temps rather than 2 meter temps.
The mess is still chugging along


Quoting LAbonbon:

That's quite the drop, Sar. Here are the official weather observations at Guthrie Airport. They show a drop from 20 to 17 between 1 and 2 pm CST. Nothing like you saw in AL, but immediately prior changes there (in OK) were 1 degree increments. Out of curiosity, I looked at the official observations for Baton Rouge - we had a 6 degree drop in dewpoint (35 to 29) between 11 and 12 noon CST. Again, not what you saw, but prior to, and after that change, the incremental changes were 1 to 2 degrees.

From SPC's updated outlook (1055 CST):

"SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE
SURFACE HEATING AND THE RAPID EROSION OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION NOTED
ON THE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS NWRN OK INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
UPPER 50S /ALREADY UP 20-30 DEGREES F FROM MORNING LOWS/...RESULTING
IN RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT. CONCURRENTLY...SUSTAINED SWLY
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF WRN
OK WITH NUMEROUS MESONET SITES RECORDING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH."

And they discussed low RH's in their previous discussion (3:50 am CST) as well.
Never mind! I exported the station record to Excel and the dewpoint dropped from 46 to 25 between 10:00 and noon. I have to learn to not trust the computer display with this thing since the graph it gives me on screen sometimes doesn't match up with the actual data. It seems to have something to do with computer display not keeping up with data and then adjusting it all at once. 21 degrees in 2 hours is still a pretty respectable drop but not quite as dramatic as I first thought. This is the kind of thing you put with when you only spend $140 for a weather station. :-)
Quoting 127. washingtonian115:

Looks like the ECWMF have dropped the January 25th storm.If this keeps up this winter will be one of the least snowiest.Wet when its warm and dry when its cold,which is something the winter of 2010-2011 did all to well.It would seem like a repeat is in the making....


We have yet to see any type of accumulating frozen precip. down here so far. Nothing more than flurries. 2 months left to go but i'm starting to wonder if this winter is a bust already.
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

I'm not sure how much sea-bed mining is actually taking place. The area referred to is where it has been permitted. However, I expect sea-bed mining will soon be a big endeavor, with big impacts. Sea-bed mining ties in with this article too.

Aside from a diamond mining project, there is not much deep sea mining going on. But there are some big projects being negotiated and planned, primarily in the western Pacific. Papua New Guinea is negotiating with mining companies to exploit seabed copper and other metal deposits.

I just read that one! Pretty neat, actually.

I've done a google search of 'seabed mining' and am currently wading through the results...

Started with these two:

Deep-sea mining (Wiki)

Seabed mining - from science fiction to reality (The Sydney Morning Herald, August 24, 2014)

The opening words on the Wiki page made me feel a bit better: "Deep sea mining is a relatively new mineral retrieval process..."
170. beell
Quoting 156. sar2401:

That's a strange satellite image. Not the low that's causing the problems in Philly but how those high clouds just vanish from south to north. I would put it down to an artifact but my temperature at 1:30 was 65 with a dewpoint of 47. At 1:45, it was 67 with a dewpoint of 23. I don't think I've ever seen a dewpoint collapse that quickly. I even got out my century old sling psychrometer because I thought my weather station has gone haywire but it was right on the money. I wonder if the same thing occurred further north and contributed to the Oklahoma fires?


IR, sar. Clear skies, warming earth.
Do not give up, do not ever give up


Seahawks
Quoting beell:


In a perfectly wired world, we could use ground temps rather than 2 meter temps.
True, but 2 meter temperatures were between 26 and 29 degrees so you know ground temperatures aren't going to be any warmer. They understood the scenario but thought that ground temperatures would rise fast enough as the relatively warmer rain moved in. They were concentrating on the heavy rain/flooding potential and I believe that they thought icing wouldn't be a big deal in the larger picture. Still, as they wrote, it only takes a trace of ice to trigger an advisory. It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback but, being risk adverse when it come to emergency management, I think I would have issued the advisory and cancelled if there were no field reports of ice.
Quoting beell:


IR, sar. Clear skies, warming earth.
Yeah, I knew that when I was typing it too. Pretty quick warm up for coast up into the Plains. My high was 69 and it should get a few degrees warmer tomorrow.
175. beell
Quoting 173. sar2401:

True, but 2 meter temperatures were between 26 and 29 degrees so you know ground temperatures aren't going to be any warmer. They understood the scenario but thought that ground temperatures would rise fast enough as the relatively warmer rain moved in. They were concentrating on the heavy rain/flooding potential and I believe that they thought icing wouldn't be a big deal in the larger picture. Still, as they wrote, it only takes a trace of ice to trigger an advisory. It's easy to be a Monday morning quarterback but, being risk adverse when it come to emergency management, I think I would have issued the advisory and cancelled if there were no field reports of ice.


Believe it or not, ice that forms near the freezing point is "slicker" than ice at colder temps due to a thin layer of liquid water atop the ice. And I should have said "in a perfectly wired world we could use actual temps of elevated structures rather than 2 meter temps". There can be a meaningful difference.

Ground temps will almost always be warmer.
Quoting 158. HadesGodWyvern:



--------------------------------




03U became "08-20092010" and eventually Edzani on January 6 2010..

Jeff Master's was giving example of cyclone that formed in the southwest Indian Ocean.

Edzani formed in the southeast Indian Ocean (east of 90E)

..and of course Bruce formed in the southeast Indian ocean as well for it to keep it's Australian name.


By including (Daryl)-Agnielle in the original post, that does not appear to be the case. That storm originally formed in the Australian region like those storms you have highlighted, hence the reason the storm was originally named Daryl (which wasn't mentioned in the original post but is worth noting). That also doesn't apply for the other storms that weren't mentioned in the original post.

JTWC Best Track File for 01S (Daryl-Agnielle) 1995-1996
The system moving through the northeast is causing some flooding. Along the I-95 corridor, waters are rising in several locations. The following flood warning mentions 3 gauged streams in flood, but in looking at the River Observations map for the area, there are now 7 gauged streams in flood stage.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
418 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

DEC003-NJC005-007-015-033-PAC017-029-045-091-101- 190430-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150119T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAMDEN NJ-BUCKS PA-MONTGOMERY PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-DELAWARE PA-
GLOUCESTER NJ-CHESTER PA-NEW CASTLE DE-BURLINGTON NJ-SALEM NJ-
418 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
NORTHERN SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1130 PM EST

* AT 409 PM AT LEAST THREE GAUGED STREAMS WERE IN FLOOD AND
PROBABLY A FEW OTHER TRIBUTARIES WERE IN FLOOD. THOSE STREAMS
KNOWN TO BE IN FLOOD WERE THE CRISTINA IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...THE
PENNYPACK IN PHILADELPHIA AND THE CRUM CREEK IN NEWTOWN SQUARE.
THE CHESTER CREEK IN CHESTER PENNSYLVANIA WAS APPROACHING FLOOD
BUT MAY CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

* RECORD DAILY RAINFALL IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM
WILMINGTON TO PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON OCCURRED TODAY.
THE RAIN
HAS ENDED BUT RUNOFF FROM THE 1.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCH RAINS MAY FORCE
SOME STREAMS INTO FLOOD LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE AT LEAST
TEMPORARY EXTENSION OF THE WARNING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE STEADY. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

(Edit: removed hydrograph)
[this comment is not longer applicable]
Quoting 178. 1900hurricane:


That gauge appears to be reading an incorrect value.


You are correct. I should have looked at the gauges up and downstream. I'm correcting my OP.
180. beell
Quoting 178. 1900hurricane:


That gauge appears to be reading an incorrect value.


jiggle the handle!



Quoting 168. Storms306:



We have yet to see any type of accumulating frozen precip. down here so far. Nothing more than flurries. 2 months left to go but i'm starting to wonder if this winter is a bust already.
The clock is starting to tick faster and faster.I'm not counting on March this year,and nothing can compare to last March where we had several snow events.I don't see that happening this time around.
Quoting 152. hurricanes2018:

VERY HEAVY RAIN At 7PM IN BOSTON big football game tonight watch out for the peolpe going to the game


Huh? It's 7:08 PM in Boston and it's not even raining yet, there will be some heavy rain due to strong dynamic forcing but rain will only be heavy due to duration not rainfall rate. Using the term "very heavy rain" for shallow January convection is a bit overkill. Rainfall rates are probably 0.50-0.75 max because it's a January air mass.


Sure it will be a mess, bit it's not August in Boston with a tropical air mass surging up the coast, and it's not a crazy snow event, overall not too big of a deal, could be a lot worse for January in Boston.

NJ's Press of Atlantic City had an interesting article concerning what we call the "left shore" - along the Delaware Bay. It's a largely undeveloped stretch of coastline dotted by blue collar fishing towns and small summer colonies. Few people know of them. The area is largely poor and rural so it gets little attention from the state. Now, the future of these small towns is being called into question as they have been routinely assailed by land subsidence, erosion, frequent storms, and of course encroaching tides. They were damaged badly by Sandy but received almost no emergency/disaster funding. Even before Sandy they were struggling to survive. Frankly, Trenton could give a damn if they sink or swim. Some, like Sea Breeze, have already been abandoned.

Back in the old days the area was famous for oysters.


Most houses are on stilts, similar to the Outer Banks. The bay is constantly washing under them.

Gandys Beach - area took the brunt of Sandy's surge.
Always a treat. Have seen twice in person. 1989 was most memorable. Brock Little took off on what had to be a 50' face. That wave was heaving, moving so fast. I can't believe he was able to get into it. He took gas about 3/4 way down. Guy is a great athlete in and out of the water. No one else would have even attempted it.

Quoting 113. islander101010:

will the eddie go on wednesday? good chance for it waimea bay oahu
When I first read the blog earlier today, I was intrigued by the rainfall amounts Dr. Masters mentioned. Yes, the photos from the ISS are amazing, but the rainfall totals in Reunion for different storms are simply staggering! So I started looking at other record rain events (while getting sidetracked by explanations of Monte Carlo analyses, typical weather events, and the unexpected extent of seabed mining...) and came across this:

Most rain in one hour: 305 mm (12.0 in) in 42 minutes. Holt, Missouri, United States, 22 June 1947 (source: Wiki page 'List of weather records')

Yowza!

And on that note, I'm headed off the blog. I'm scienced and weathered out.

Goodnight, all. Enjoy your football/UFC/weather geeking :D
Trent what an excellent article you posted!
From the Sacramento, California forecast discussion, not what they want during the wet season:

"Upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific is likely to build over Northern California through the extended period. NAEFS ensembles are already showing a highly anomalous warm atmosphere for next weekend, which is unusual this far out. Given this, confidence is high in very warm temperatures for next weekend, with 70s likely for portions of the Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills. This could also break a few record high temperatures."
Quoting beell:


Believe it or not, ice that forms near the freezing point is "slicker" than ice at colder temps due to a thin layer of liquid water atop the ice. And I should have said "in a perfectly wired world we could use actual temps of elevated structures rather than 2 meter temps". There can be a meaningful difference.

Ground temps will almost always be warmer.
In a really perfect world, we've have the temperature under a bridge and on the road surface, since it's ice on bridges that cause most of the accidents down here. The surface doesn't even have to be very elevated, just not the actual ground. I have a short stretch of concrete sidewalk going from the porch to the garage. I've now learned that, if we had rain the day before and the grass looks frosty, don't use that sidewalk, as it will be icy. It only took a couple of times with me ending up on my butt to learn :-)
Quoting beell:
Blakely, AL-Early County Airport Obs

A healthy drop in dp's!
Blakely is over in Georgia. The closest official station to me is Dothan (still about 50 miles) and they had a 13 degree drop in dewpoint in the same period. For whatever reason, the dry air moved in fast and it's still dry, with dewpoint being 27. Going to be another chilly night but it should be a beautiful day tomorrow.
190. beell
Quoting 189. sar2401:

Blakely is over in Georgia. The closest official station to me is Dothan (still about 50 miles) and they had a 13 degree drop in dewpoint in the same period. For whatever reason, the dry air moved in fast and it's still dry, with dewpoint being 27. Going to be another chilly night but it should be a beautiful day tomorrow.


Oops. Will fix the state, thanks. Google says 37 miles to Blakely, GA.

I'll go back to Las Vegas just to try this.
Now back to your regularly scheduled WU.
Pouring in Foxboro, in more ways than one,
Patriots 45, Colts 7 .....

Wash115, what is that stuff??
Quoting 192. PedleyCA:

Pouring in Foxboro, in more ways than one,
Patriots 45, Colts 7 .....

Wash115, what is that stuff??

Pasta stuffed with cheese and then tossed with peas, mushrooms & prosciutto in our creamy alfredo sauce.

I added shrimp to mine (for a extra 10 bucks)
Here it is on the website:Link
Makes me want to go to Vegas again.
Maybe Taz and his "La Nino" were on to something. :)

.2101 sigma velocity potential correlation to Nino 3.4 region for the month of January:



.2101 sigma velocity potential anomaly map valid Jan 1-Jan 16, 2015

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maybe Taz and his "La Nino" were on to something. :)

.2101 sigma velocity potential correlation to Nino 3.4 region for the month of January:



.2101 sigma velocity potential anomaly map valid Jan 1-Jan 16, 2015




YAY ME YAY ME LA NINO i think we may be heading for one later this year the time for EL NINO has come and gone oh wait we never had a EL NINO and this is not a EL NINO year
Did someone say La nina?...But what about the super El nino forecast to be the strongest or stronger than the 1997 event?
198. vis0

Quoting 156. sar2401:

That's a strange satellite image. Not the low that's causing the problems in Philly but how those high clouds just vanish from south to north. I would put it down to an artifact but my temperature at 1:30 was 65 with a dewpoint of 47. At 1:45, it was 67 with a dewpoint of 23. I don't think I've ever seen a dewpoint collapse that quickly. I even got out my century old sling psychrometer because I thought my weather station has gone haywire but it was right on the money. I wonder if the same thing occurred further north and contributed to the Oklahoma fires?
other imagery at #156



Quoting 197. opal92nwf:

How the 'Elite' have totally Miscalculated


Published on Dec 15, 2014
How the 'Elite' have totally Miscalculated.
One of the main drives to fund a "global government" is through a "global carbon tax". Thus we see that through the government, the major media and also through NGO funded science a major drive to find evidence for global warming or to convince the public that global warming is occurring mainly due to the activities of mankind. Without the problem of global warming, there would be no public support for a global carbon tax, which is planned to be used to fund a global government. Where the 'elite' have totally miscalculated, is that we are actually going into a major cooling phase and will likely see temperatures about as low as occurred over 400 years ago during the mini-ice-age. In recent years, we have already seen a pause in 'global warming' and the new NGO funded science edict is now 'global climate change' vs ' global warming'. Global cooling or the mini ice age will bring about a major food shortages and also increased energy consumption.




I'm sure everyone appreciates your comment "video".




Thanks.


Quoting 185. LAbonbon:

When I first read the blog earlier today, I was intrigued by the rainfall amounts Dr. Masters mentioned. Yes, the photos from the ISS are amazing, but the rainfall totals in Reunion for different storms are simply staggering! So I started looking at other record rain events (while getting sidetracked by explanations of Monte Carlo analyses, typical weather events, and the unexpected extent of seabed mining...) and came across this:

Most rain in one hour: 305 mm (12.0 in) in 42 minutes. Holt, Missouri, United States, 22 June 1947 (source: Wiki page 'List of weather records')

Yowza!

And on that note, I'm headed off the blog. I'm scienced and weathered out.

Goodnight, all. Enjoy your football/UFC/weather geeking :D


And what a weird place for it to happen, Missouri, which certainly isn't a desert, but isn't a mountainous area in a rainforest either. Missouri is run of the mill in terms of climate rainfall wise. I almost wonder if there was an error. But I have no way of proving, and I'm sure due to it's crazy anomalous nature, that it has been carefully studied and analyzed by meteorologists such that it would have been disqualified as erroneous by now if it really truly was.
Quoting 195. Tazmanian:




YAY ME YAY ME LA NINO i think we may be heading for one later this year the time for EL NINO has come and gone oh wait we never had a EL NINO and this is not a EL NINO year


Only partially like an el nino at times. Gotta love teleconnections. I guess it shows there's still a long way to go in predicting them.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL LOW
11:48 AM WST January 19 2015
===================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1003 hPa) located at 17.7S 123.0E or 85 kilometers east northeast of Broome and 80 kilometers west southwest of Derby has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots

The tropical low will move offshore from the west Kimberley coast this afternoon. Once over open water, the tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone this evening or overnight. The system will then track generally parallel to the Pilbara coast before weakening on Tuesday.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr may develop in coastal parts between Broome and Port Hedland during Monday evening, and possibly as far north as Cape Leveque for a brief period. Depending on how close the system tracks to the Pilbara coast, gales may extend west to Dampier on Tuesday morning and possibly as far west as Exmouth Tuesday evening.

Areas of heavy rain are expected over the north and west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for coastal areas fromCape Leveque to Mardie including Broome, Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for coastal areas from Mardie to Exmouth including Onslow
O schweet irony, thou do wineth a lot as of late'.

Logic always dictates.


Quoting 25. tlawson48:

My thoughts in terms of AGW started out as a "who really knows the answer"? That was more to avoid arguments than an actual skepticism. When I finally had time to read about the subject in depth, the vast amount of material out there usually leads back to well thought out, extremely long and frequently excruciatingly boring research papers (which are almost always peer reviewed). The anti AGW side arguments almost always lead you back to either someone who is trying to make money off confusion, someone who is trying to make money off of doubt or the trail leads to the sublime.

I have arrived at a pro AGW stance simply because the logical well thought out, balanced argument is generally the one that is right. And to all those who say that their anti AGW message is being suppressed by the government and the media, well that is just a lie. We live in the one period of history, where your message, no matter how much it differs from the mainstream and no matter how oppressive the part of the world is in which you live, will reach a wide audience if you truly want it to.

Quoting 199. Patrap:



Published on Dec 15, 2014
How the 'Elite' have totally Miscalculated.
One of the main drives to fund a "global government" is through a "global carbon tax". Thus we see that through the government, the major media and also through NGO funded science a major drive to find evidence for global warming or to convince the public that global warming is occurring mainly due to the activities of mankind. Without the problem of global warming, there would be no public support for a global carbon tax, which is planned to be used to fund a global government. Where the 'elite' have totally miscalculated, is that we are actually going into a major cooling phase and will likely see temperatures about as low as occurred over 400 years ago during the mini-ice-age. In recent years, we have already seen a pause in 'global warming' and the new NGO funded science edict is now 'global climate change' vs ' global warming'. Global cooling or the mini ice age will bring about a major food shortages and also increased energy consumption.




I'm sure everyone appreciates your comment "video".




Thanks.




Your welcome

(also, this doesn't actually reflect my opinion)
Seems that "High" is still nosing in a tad..



Hurricanes can have lightning and thunder but not often.



Normally hurricanes do not have lightning and thunder because lightning and thunder are formed by vertical winds that cause water and ice to rub together. This friction creates the electrical field that causes lightning and thunder. Hurricanes normally do not have the vertical winds needed to make the electrical fields. Most hurricane winds are horizontal. So hurricanes do not normally form lighting because the vertical wind churning does not often happen.

However during the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Hurricane Emily, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Katrina all had extensive lightning and thunder.

All these hurricanes had some similar characteristics

they were over water when their lightning was detected
the lightning was located around the hurricane's eye-wall
these were all powerful hurricanes - Hurricane Emily was a category 4 and Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were category 5 storms.




This image shows Hurricane Emily. The yellow pluses and minuses are lightning strikes. The green line is Hurricane Emily's direction. Image Courtesy of NASA
Quoting 204. opal92nwf:


Your welcome

(also, this doesn't actually reflect my opinion)


Then why post it? And without comment?

Propagating crazy conspiracy (that you claim doesn't even represent your opinion) seems a little odd and certainly spreading false information does nothing for the public discourse besides muddle it more. I just don't get it.

I'll try to explain this as clearly as possible. Carbon dioxide's ability to absorb long wave radiation is completely independent of carbon taxes. In fact, you'll find many people who believe in science who also do not like carbon taxes. You don't have to deny science to disagree with proposed solutions.
Predicted low tonight is 39 but it has already made it down to 35, HA HA, I love this weather.
Quoting 207. Naga5000:



Then why post it? And without comment?

Propagating crazy conspiracy (that you claim doesn't even represent your opinion) seems a little odd and certainly spreading false information does nothing for the public discourse besides muddle it more. I just don't get it.

I'll try to explain this as clearly as possible. Carbon dioxide's ability to absorb long wave radiation is completely independent of carbon taxes. In fact, you'll find many people who believe in science who also do not like carbon taxes. You don't have to deny science to disagree with proposed solutions.




werd'
210. DrLou
These are great photographs from the top - a perspective not often able to be seen - of an incredibly powerful storm. And these storms do seem to be getting more powerful all of the time.
211. 882MB
Quoting 206. Patrap:


Hurricanes can have lightning and thunder but not often.



Normally hurricanes do not have lightning and thunder because lightning and thunder are formed by vertical winds that cause water and ice to rub together. This friction creates the electrical field that causes lightning and thunder. Hurricanes normally do not have the vertical winds needed to make the electrical fields. Most hurricane winds are horizontal. So hurricanes do not normally form lighting because the vertical wind churning does not often happen.

However during the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Hurricane Emily, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Katrina all had extensive lightning and thunder.

All these hurricanes had some similar characteristics

they were over water when their lightning was detected
the lightning was located around the hurricane's eye-wall
these were all powerful hurricanes - Hurricane Emily was a category 4 and Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were category 5 storms.




This image shows Hurricane Emily. The yellow pluses and minuses are lightning strikes. The green line is Hurricane Emily's direction. Image Courtesy of NASA


Nice article Patrap, but if I'm not mistaken, on the morning of October 19, 2005 when hurricane Wilma rapidly intensified to a category 5 with a pressure of 882mb, I remember meteorologist saying the recon plane saw intense lightning in the very cold cloud tops around the eyewall. I will do some research to see if I'm correct. Great post like I mentioned.
An interesting tidbit from the local NWS weather discussion, "NOTE: THE ALL TIME COLDEST TEMP FOR MELBOURNE IS 17F WHICH OCCURRED
ON JAN 19 1977...38 YEARS AGO TOMORROW."

It is astonishing to me that a location on the FL Peninsula so near the coast and 30-40 miles further south could have an all time record low lower than Orlando, at a time likely before a substantial urban heat island effect affected Orlando. The official coldest temp for Orlando is 19F, though I have read reports of 18F at some point in the 20th century. I even read a historical record of 16F for Orlando in the 1800s, which I totally believe based on Orlando's inland location and relatively northern location on the peninsula. That is far from the human engineered climatic reality of today though.

I doubt we will make it to the forecast low of 45F here tonight, as it is after midnight and still in the upper 50s).

213. 882MB
Quoting 211. 882MB:



Nice article Patrap, but if I'm not mistaken, on the morning of October 19, 2005 when hurricane Wilma rapidly intensified to a category 5 with a pressure of 882mb, I remember meteorologist saying the recon plane saw intense lightning in the very cold cloud tops around the eyewall. I will do some research to see if I'm correct. Great post like I mentioned.


I frequently link to articles that I don't agree with completely and occasionally articles I disagree with strongly. I post them because I choose reputable sources and like to stimulate debate.
Some guy's wacked out Badly produced conspiracy video with 2007 views is not a view,

...its something else.




See werd's 2 and 3 in line 1.

G'night .
Pretty dry here on the east side of the Sierra Nevada. Not a speck of snow on the ground at my house (5900').
Sierra Nevada snowpack

Nothing on the horizon, either.
Truckee, CA forecast

On February 8, 1835 it was 11 degrees at Fort King in Ocala, FL. You can read the article on JSTOR. You can get a free account entitling you to read 3 articles a month. The temperatures are on the 7th page of the article.
Quoting 214. BaltimoreBrian:

I frequently link to articles that I don't agree with completely and occasionally articles I disagree with strongly. I post them because I choose reputable sources and like to stimulate debate.


Stimulating debate often leads to the use of actual logic and rationality, which frequently causes cognitive dissonance. :)
Evening all. It's cold here. Again. Looking for the first 70's tomorrow for the first time in a while. Awesome pics. Got me thinking about the lightning that I saw in Humberto. That had to be in or around the eye. Didn't think I was imagining it. lol. That's how I saw everything after the transformers blew. Found one article about lightning in hurricanes covering some 2007-08 storms. Dean, Felix, Humberto, Gustav, Omar, and Paloma.


Lightning Activity in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones:
Using the Long-Range Lightning Detection Network (LLDN)

Lumari Pardo-Rodriguez
Academic Affiliation, Fall 2009: MA Climat
e and Society, Columbia University
SOARS
®
Summer 2009
Science Research Mentor: Joseph Golden, Bill Woodley
Writing and Communication Mentor: Amy Stevermer
Computer Mentor: Mike Page
Link

Total lightning count for each interval in the whole trajectory of the storm shows an
apparent discrepancy in the results. Hurricane Humberto (figure 7) is the only TC showing a
clear peak in total storm lightning activity less than 24 hours before the maximum sustained
winds. The total and average amount of lightning
activity is considerably higher than others.





Quoting 219. KoritheMan:



Stimulating debate often leads to the use of actual logic and rationality, which frequently causes cognitive dissonance. :)

I'll be honest though, I almost always avoid internet debate. I'm not saying it's always a problem, but seems to end up usually being an egofest, and usually a waste of time.

Again, I don't want to claim that is always the case, or that it even is true for the majority of the time, but it has been that way with my experience.

It seems that debate is most successful in person with small groups of people by which each person in the group at least knows each person in that group respects each other and is also willing to listen to each other's arguments.

Especially when it comes to major world issues like climate change, or religious topics.

I think though that internet debate can be done effectively amongst small groups of people who know each other really well already, whether in person or online, but otherwise it seems pretty fleeting to me.
Quoting 215. BaltimoreBrian:

The all time record low for Orlando is 18 on December 28, 1894


It's kinda funny, because that was even when Orlando was a tiny town, Yet Tampa International Airport, which is literally right by the bay, has gotten down to 19. Upper teens have even occurred in the water surrounded little peninsula of Pinellas County across the bay.

I wonder if the soil composition allows for more efficient cooling on the west side of the state compared to Orlando and much of the east side?

What's odd is that the west side of the state often ends up being colder than the east side, both in terms of lows and even highs with major cooling events, which normally shouldn't make a difference if it was just soil composition accounting for the difference. Brooksville for example, is due west of Orlando, gets much colder than Orlando, and gets much colder, and the Tampa Bay area usually gets colder than Melbourne in terms of highs and lows, even though Melbourne is smaller city.

You'll notice that Ruskin will sometimes issue freeze warnings as far south as Punta Gorda before the NWS in Melbourne issues them down into Orlando and Melbourne.

I would have to ask some of the meteorologists at Ruskin if I am able to be there again this summer. It's always been an interesting mystery to me.
Quoting 207. Naga5000:



Then why post it? And without comment?

Propagating crazy conspiracy (that you claim doesn't even represent your opinion) seems a little odd and certainly spreading false information does nothing for the public discourse besides muddle it more. I just don't get it.

I'll try to explain this as clearly as possible. Carbon dioxide's ability to absorb long wave radiation is completely independent of carbon taxes. In fact, you'll find many people who believe in science who also do not like carbon taxes. You don't have to deny science to disagree with proposed solutions.


I think it was obvious that I wanted to see other's thoughts on it.
Melbourne FL did get to 17 in Jan 1977 though ;)
Quoting 221. Jedkins01:


I'll be honest though, I almost always avoid internet debate. I'm not saying it's always a problem, but seems to end up usually being an egofest, and usually a waste of time.

Again, I don't want to claim that is always the case, or that it even is true for the majority of the time, but it has been that way with my experience.

It seems that debate is most successful in person with small groups of people by which each person in the group at least knows each person in that group respects each other and is also willing to listen to each other's arguments.

Especially when it comes to major world issues like climate change, or religious topics.

I think though that internet debate can be done effectively amongst small groups of people who know each other really well already, whether in person or online, but otherwise it seems pretty fleeting to me.



One could argue that we know each other pretty well on this site already; at least the ones that are actually willing to open up about themselves. I've changed my mind through internet debate MANY times, and I'll undoubtedly do it many more times. I'm more picky about who I choose to debate nowadays because the world is full of morons in no uncertain terms, and I'd rather not waste too much of my time with such people. You do raise a possibly valid point about familiarity in debate generating a perspective shift; a lot of the people that post on my Facebook rants are people I've known a long time from either here or GameFAQs, so there is a bit of kinship there, even if our ideologies don't always align.

As for debate itself, I'll probably never stop doing it. I'm becoming more selective for reasons I already discussed, but I don't think I have it in me to quit cold turkey. It's fun, and I admit I like being able to get the upper hand at times, hahaha. I'm sure a lot of that can be chalked up to spending the last 9-10 years over here, though:

Link

I actually still post there since that place is like home for me (kinda like here) now. If you're interested in stalking me (I don't mind, I know I'm popular :P), LinkFanatic is my handle on there. I lurk more than I post nowadays, but you can still find me. Nathan knows about that site, but apparently he doesn't have the balls to post there just yet. :P
Well, at least it's not 1930 or 1906. :D it's 38 now.

On this date in 1930, BPT reported a low of 11; the 2nd coldest temperature ever recorded. Since records began only 2/6/1906 was colder (10)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Storm Warning
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CHEDZA (06-20142015)
10:00 AM RET January 19 2015
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chedza (980 hPa) located at 24.7S 52.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
140 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 25.7S 53.0E - 45 knots Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 27.6S 53.8E - 45 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
48 HRS 31.1S 57.5E - 40 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)
72 HRS 35.2S 61.9E - Depression ExtraTropicale

Additional Information
===================
Chedza's current pattern looks unconventional the Dvorak technique is not adapted. Deep convection has warmed up and has disappeared within the northwestern quadrant. Deepest convection is located in the southern semi-circle in the convergence with the subtropical high pressures and with favorable good upper level poleward outflow.

Chedza is tracking south southeastwards towards a transient mid-level trough.

On this path, today, the vertical wind shear is to increase and the oceanic heat potential to decrease. On Tuesday, the vertical wind shear should become strong and the system could begin its extratropical transition in the vicinity of the subtropical jet stream but winds should remain strong within the circulation.
Quoting 187. bappit:

From the Sacramento, California forecast discussion, not what they want during the wet season:

"Upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific is likely to build over Northern California through the extended period. NAEFS ensembles are already showing a highly anomalous warm atmosphere for next weekend, which is unusual this far out. Given this, confidence is high in very warm temperatures for next weekend, with 70s likely for portions of the Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills. This could also break a few record high temperatures."


We're not happy about it
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
TROPICAL LOW
2:51 PM WST January 19 2015
===================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (1003 hPa) located at 18.1S 122.4E or 25 kilometers southeast of Broome and 160 kilometers southwest of Derby has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

The weak tropical low is moving off the west Kimberley coast. Once over open water, the tropical low has a slight chance of developing into a tropical cyclone overnight. If the system develops it is then likely to track parallel to the Pilbara coast before weakening on Tuesday.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may develop in coastal parts between Broome and Port Hedland during Monday evening, and possibly as far north as Cape Leveque for a brief period. Depending on how close the system tracks to the Pilbara coast, gales may extend west to Dampier on Tuesday morning. The system is likely to weaken during Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Areas of heavy rain are expected over the west Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Warnings for more details

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie including Broome, Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier
Wow. Not good when 850 mb temps are as warm (or even about 1F warmer) than the modeled surface temps. 0z GFS, 102 hours out, 6z on Friday. The NWS gives a 60% chance of rain for my area (Prairieville, near Baton Rouge) Thursday night into Friday morning as an upper-level disturbance rounds the base of the longwave over the eastern US and deepens. Damn inversion, lol. It's almost impossible to get a decent snowfall event as far as south as I am. The Gulf can't send a hurricane when I want it, and apparently it can't send snow either, lol.

Quoting opal92nwf:
How the 'Elite' have totally Miscalculated
"uhh...well, ya know...people used to walk across, the ...uhh...Arctic Sea thing, ya know....all the way from...uhhh Denmark to...I don't know, like to Scandinavia, ya know...back in the, like, 1600's, ya know...they had roads and hotels for all the travelers across the ice and...uhh...what's that called again...oh, yeah, permafrost...seriously, I read that somewhere...crazy, man..." "***cough, cough, hack****"

Seriously, I don't care if people want to get buzzed, just don't post a video until the effects wear off.
233. emguy
Don't feel too bad Kori...here in Kansas City...we can't seem to get snow either...no matter how cold it gets this season.

Quoting 231. KoritheMan:

Wow. Not good when 850 mb temps are as warm (or even about 1F warmer) than the modeled surface temps. 0z GFS, 102 hours out, 6z on Friday. The NWS gives a 60% chance of rain for my area (Prairieville, near Baton Rouge) Thursday night into Friday morning as an upper-level disturbance rounds the base of the longwave over the eastern US and deepens. Damn inversion, lol. It's almost impossible to get a decent snowfall event as far as south as I am. The Gulf can't send a hurricane when I want it, and apparently it can't send snow either, lol.


Quoting KoritheMan:
Wow. Not good when 850 mb temps are as warm (or even about 1F warmer) than the modeled surface temps. 0z GFS, 102 hours out, 6z on Friday. The NWS gives a 60% chance of rain for my area (Prairieville, near Baton Rouge) Thursday night into Friday morning as an upper-level disturbance rounds the base of the longwave over the eastern US and deepens. Damn inversion, lol. It's almost impossible to get a decent snowfall event as far as south as I am. The Gulf can't send a hurricane when I want it, and apparently it can't send snow either, lol.

Well, BMX had already added a rain/snow mix for Thursday night in Friday as far south as Tuscaloosa and just north of Montgomery. The pretty gutsy for them to do this far out. That 850 mb layer doesn't seem to show a warm nose, and it looks like CAA goes all the way up. Should be saturated through the mid-levels but the 850 mb and surface will be dry as a bone. That might actually help get some evaporation cooling going and get snow to the surface if the placement of the elongated shortwave from the north and what should be an inverted surface trough from the Gulf to phase just right. If we can keep the heavier rain down here, we stand a better chance than up north of seeing some snow. That's not likely to happen, and the heavier precipitation will set up further north and promote the evaporative cooling there. Probably won't do us any good but it should lead to some nice YouTube slipping and sliding videos out of Birmingham and Atlanta.

BTW, it's 30 here now with a predicted overnight low of 34. Oppsie!
Hello guys I'm back from my vacation.
Did we have any Weather Channel names while I was gone.
Quoting beell:


Oops. Will fix the state, thanks. Google says 37 miles to Blakely, GA.
Blakely is about 45 miles but it's just another AWOS station like we have. Maybe they take better care of theirs, but ours routinely reports light rain when it's sunny and sunny when it's raining. The closest manned official station is Dothan, so I tend to trust their readings more than an AWOS station. At least Eufaula's airport is attended during the day most of the time, but his only job is to empty trashcans and crank up the airport fire truck and hope it starts when something goes down the runway sideways. There's no tower and no radio, so he's supposed to stay awake and listen to the unicom in case the guy coming in sideways actually says something about it on the radio before it hits the runway. Every time I go out there, the guys asleep in his pickup, so you're probably toast if you make a bad landing or takeoff.

Did we have any Weather Channel names while I was gone.


nah, last TWC named system was about 1 week ago "HEKTOR"
Quoting 234. sar2401:

Well, BMX had already added a rain/snow mix for Thursday night in Friday as far south as Tuscaloosa and just north of Montgomery. The pretty gutsy for them to do this far out. That 850 mb layer doesn't seem to show a warm nose, and it looks like CAA goes all the way up. Should be saturated through the mid-levels but the 850 mb and surface will be dry as a bone. That might actually help get some evaporation cooling going and get snow to the surface if the placement of the elongated shortwave from the north and what should be an inverted surface trough from the Gulf to phase just right. If we can keep the heavier rain down here, we stand a better chance than up north of seeing some snow. That's not likely to happen, and the heavier precipitation will set up further north and promote the evaporative cooling there. Probably won't do us any good but it should lead to some nice YouTube slipping and sliding videos out of Birmingham and Atlanta.

BTW, it's 30 here now with a predicted overnight low of 34. Oppsie!


That 850 mb layer needs to be a couple of degrees cooler in order to have a decent shot at even a little bit of snow. Overnight temperatures may only get to around 39 or 40F over here, and that's pretty insufficient when you consider how warm the 850 mb layer is; it would take a lot of evaporation to cool that layer enough to get some action going.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
548 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-016>018-504>508-VAZ 052>057-191230-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...WESTMINSTER...PARKTON...
REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK ...CATONSVILLE...
ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...ROCKVILLE...LISBON...
COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG
548 AM EST MON JAN 19 2015


...ICY ROAD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND LEFTOVER WATER FROM RAIN
SUNDAY MAY CAUSE PATCHY ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING. REDUCE SPEED
AND STAY ALERT FOR SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.

$$
242. vis0

Quoting 175. beell:



Believe it or not, ice that forms near the freezing point is "slicker" than ice at colder temps due to a thin layer of liquid water atop the ice. And I should have said "in a perfectly wired world we could use actual temps of elevated structures rather than 2 meter temps". There can be a meaningful difference.

Ground temps will almost always be warmer.
An affect of your point (slippery when wet-ter) can be seem @1m:00s into this clip. It was barely freezing, mainly the low cold air was very strong. Evening before recorded over 60 (groups of 15-20) sparrows all huddled even could see their tiny legs pushing their body's hard against the warmer wall against a projects (basement) exhaust duct from 25th to 24 st & 8th Ave. 3 other people fell i recorded all ~1/2 a block away that only i &1 or 2 other people of dozens passing by seemed to see, i had to pick up all 3 since i guess i look stronger (actually heavier) but in lifting the people i was slipping as if it where a slip n slide. ("slip n slide" is a summer outdoors gamed where kids (some adults - that shouldn't) run a slide on wet60 feet of vinyl), as poor kids our version was called "polyester N peel", consisted of shiny polyester clothing (like the shirts Disco dancers wore in Saturday Night Fever) and banana peels...the word peel didn't come from the banana but from be stopped to many times by the friction of the cement pavement, we were kids having fun. Not showing the other 2 falls as too many people facing camera & some might ID them and ask why didn't you help, i record weather, nature not people getting hurt. See examples of low level col as snow just falling on warmer city streets blowing around @25s, or icicles on public bus @1m26s eventhough it just began to flurry 1 hr before and rush hour (human created vapour exhaust in bus) was not too busy. BTW That's MAD. Sq. Park, its rectangular, hey we wacky humans name thing as we want, Madison Sq. Garden use to be there & now its elsewhere (1 mi. away to the True North, NW if you use NYC street as a compass) and round.  Going to eat a Chlli burger cause its cold.


dont do football but the worlds best wave forecasters are watching this huge swell moving into the hawaiian islands wednesday. the Eddie might be a go. the swell looks to be big enough but the swell is coming from a westernly direction. because of this there could be a shadowing effect from kauai. its been about 5 yrs since it last was a go
245. vis0

Quoting 180. beell:



jiggle the handle!


WxU member "beell",  if yer going 2post sumthing post it in its entirety in the honor of full disclosure:    ;-b


beell's ORIGINAL reply very funny
CFSv2 just might be verifying atleast in the early term as this model did show a uptick in values around mid Jamuary. By the way the SOI in one hell of a crash downward right now. This is incredible and is the lowest daily value in many years.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 19 Jan 2015

Average for last 30 days -7.2
Average for last 90 days -7.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -43.8




This westerly wind burst is taking care of business. Now if we can sustain these wind burst as TA13 showed as La Nina is exactly the opposite as what he showed earlier was more like El-Nino as the MJO looks to continue to be focused across the Pacific and if this can continue then El-Nino could be declared over the coming months as the ESPI is now dropping as well.



The reason for this uptick in values as the CFSv2 has been forecasting is because of the strongest westerly wind burst since last Spring rolling across the Pacific right now.

248. vis0

Quoting 188. sar2401:

In a really perfect world, we've have the temperature under a bridge and on the road surface, since it's ice on bridges that cause most of the accidents down here. The surface doesn't even have to be very elevated, just not the actual ground. I have a short stretch of concrete sidewalk going from the porch to the garage. I've now learned that, if we had rain the day before and the grass looks frosty, don't use that sidewalk, as it will be icy. It only took a couple of times with me ending up on my butt to learn :-)
ah, an a** skating officionato/aficionado, i use to be a champion, but age caught up and i had to hang up my Bridges, there full circle back to Bridge.
Quoting sar2401:
Blakely is about 45 miles but it's just another AWOS station like we have. Maybe they take better care of theirs, but ours routinely reports light rain when it's sunny and sunny when it's raining. The closest manned official station is Dothan, so I tend to trust their readings more than an AWOS station. At least Eufaula'a airport is attended during the day most of the time, but his only job is to empty trashcans and crank up the airport fire truck and hope it starts when something goes down the runway sideways. There's no tower and no radio, so he's supposed to stay awake and listen to the unicom in case the guy coming in sideways actually says something about it on the radio before it hits the runway. Every time I go out there, the guys asleep in his pickup, so you're probably toast if you make a bad landing or takeoff.
I've flown in and out of Weedon any number of times, and I've never gotten the impression that it's the podunk, Mayberry-esque operation you've painted it as. It's got a great full-service FBO (the Jet Center), and the restaurant is pretty decent. The FAA says Weedon handles tens of thousands of operations a year; that hardly seems like sleeping man in a pickup truck...
Who's the member that posts from Montpelier? Thought he'd be getting a decent amount of snow, but it looks like he's in a 1-2" area. Not sure where VermontStorms lives - maybe he/she got some as well?

Too much west and it won't work for the Bay. Be interesting to see what happens at Pipe and Sunset. Makaha could be all time, along with all of the great breaks on that side of the island. Sometimes ,if enough west, some town breaks will work. There are a few seldom surfed breaks I know of that may catch a west swell. They are not truly on the west side, but should catch the wrap. They rarely break well, but when they do, you'll wish you had pictures.


Quoting 244. islander101010:

dont do football but the worlds best wave forecasters are watching this huge swell moving into the hawaiian islands wednesday. the Eddie might be a go. the swell looks to be big enough but the swell is coming from a westernly direction. because of this there could be a shadowing effect from kauai. its been about 5 yrs since it last was a go
# 242 vis0

"Going to eat a Chlli burger cause its cold."

New Yorkers must have strong constitutions to eat a chili burger early in the morning :P

And I'm left wondering if you made it, or if they're available in NYC for breakfast?

I know I'd be headed for Jay Peak if had the time. Always more snow than anyone else.

Wrightsville Beach yesterday had some surprisingly good surf from the system that is currently pushing through New England. Water 52F, air 64F. Lack of water time in recent months revealed how out of surfing shape one can become during an east coast winter. Run and bike all you want, spaghetti arms in cold water wearing a full wetsuit is quite a reality check every time. Advancing age doesn't help much either.

Quoting 250. LAbonbon:

Who's the member that posts from Montpelier? Thought he'd be getting a decent amount of snow, but it looks like he's in a 1-2" area. Not sure where VermontStorms lives - maybe he/she got some as well?


Quoting 206. Patrap:


Hurricanes can have lightning and thunder but not often.



Normally hurricanes do not have lightning and thunder because lightning and thunder are formed by vertical winds that cause water and ice to rub together. This friction creates the electrical field that causes lightning and thunder. Hurricanes normally do not have the vertical winds needed to make the electrical fields. Most hurricane winds are horizontal. So hurricanes do not normally form lighting because the vertical wind churning does not often happen.

However during the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Hurricane Emily, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Katrina all had extensive lightning and thunder.

All these hurricanes had some similar characteristics

they were over water when their lightning was detected
the lightning was located around the hurricane's eye-wall
these were all powerful hurricanes - Hurricane Emily was a category 4 and Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were category 5 storms.




This image shows Hurricane Emily. The yellow pluses and minuses are lightning strikes. The green line is Hurricane Emily's direction. Image Courtesy of NASA


I flew typhoon wx recon the late 70's and saw plenty of lightning. Going in at night the skys would be a light with lightning around us. We would use the planes radar to keep out of the most heavy cells.
Quoting 254. HaoleboySurfEC:

I know I'd be headed for Jay Peak if had the time. Always more snow than anyone else.

Wrightsville Beach yesterday had some surprisingly good surf from the system that is currently pushing through New England. Water 52F, air 64F. Lack of water time in recent months revealed how out of surfing shape one can become during an east coast winter. Run and bike all you want, spaghetti arms in cold water wearing a full wetsuit is quite a reality check every time. Advancing age doesn't help much either.



Funny you should mention Jay Peak...I was thinking of that as I posted. From Jay Peak's Conditions & Weather page:

"MONDAY JANUARY 19TH, 2015 | Updated 6:13 am
4-6” of snow fell at the base last night with a whopping 8-10” at the summit. Our Mountain Forecaster is calling for another 2-4” throughout the day today, allowing for free refills. What’s your go to on powder day, woods, bumps or cliffs?

Today you’ll be making soft powdery turns on 73 trails. and resting your legs on all 9 lifts as you get a ride back to the top. Lower Mountain lifts will start spinning at 8:00AM with Upper Mountain lifts slated to follow at 8:30AM. As always final chair is at 4:00PM.

The Terrain Park on Interstate currently has 14 jib/rails and 3 jumps set up with plenty more to come. With the new snowfall many features will be buried, look before you leap.
"

Sounds nice :)

What doesn't sound nice is hopping in 52F water. Brrrrr....but, if that's what you enjoy, who am I to judge?

CPC has Nino 3.4 back up to 0.5C in response to a major SOI crash ongoing and a pretty strong WWB moving across the Pacific.
259. vis0
My all have their Magnificent enLightenment of Knowledge on Martin Luther King day ,peace
get use to the cold jbs forecast for feb & early march are that


light snow in the mid-west
Quoting 255. solarwx:



I flew typhoon wx recon the late 70's and saw plenty of lightning. Going in at night the skys would be a light with lightning around us. We would use the planes radar to keep out of the most heavy cells.
What was the strongest typhoon you flew into.?
in response to a major SOI crash ongoing

can you kindly explain how the SOI affects the anomalies in the ENSO region?
264. vis0

Quoting 255. solarwx:



I flew typhoon wx recon the late 70's and saw plenty of lightning. Going in at night the skys would be a light with lightning around us. We would use the planes radar to keep out of the most heavy cells.
     Since its the webnet and anything can be posted (some might use me as a poster child for this statement). i have a question?  As to lightning in TS you saw first hand versus what research shows, what consists of the majority of types (in TS),
     Cloud to ground/ocean,
     cloud to cloud,
     ground/ocean to cloud,
     intra-clouds,
     and intrÆ-lightning or for English majors, initia-Lightning 
    
     (though i think the last 2 are not discovered or observed via instruments in planes yet, not to mention the positive and negative of each mentioned of which some would look beaded or even ball-like, so as to the first 3 mentioned.
never mind scott as the question was facetious........this might better let you understand the relationship between the SOI and ENSO


The SOI is an index used to quantify
the strength of an ENSO event. It is
calculated from the difference between
the sea level pressure (SLP) at Tahiti
and Darwin. Although there are several
methods of determining this
relationship, a method often used, and
shown in Figure 2, was presented by Troup (1965):
Quoting 260. islander101010:

get use to the cold jbs forecast for feb & early march are that

9 hours ago, jb tweeted "brutal cold still in store last week of month for east ". Let's see how that pans out first. Last week he took credit for a spike in natural gas prices, which is kinda odd, seeing how much he adds to the supply. His ideological soup is evidently attractive to some. Let's see if traders are still willing to put their money where his mouth is going forward
Hey Haole! When I was flying P-3s out of Barbers Pt in the 80s, we used to love surfing the Jetty at Coasties on Barbers Point on swells like this. It would sometimes catch the wrap from a northwest and peel right. It would hold 8-10 Hawaiian with the right swell. Ah the good old days... Eat, sleep, surf and fly! And head to town for an occasional beverage...

Quoting 251. HaoleboySurfEC:

Too much west and it won't work for the Bay. Be interesting to see what happens at Pipe and Sunset. Makaha could be all time, along with all of the great breaks on that side of the island. Sometimes ,if enough west, some town breaks will work. There are a few seldom surfed breaks I know of that may catch a west swell. They are not truly on the west side, but should catch the wrap. They rarely break well, but when they do, you'll wish you had pictures.



268. vis0

Quoting 252. LAbonbon:

# 242 vis0

"Going to eat a Chlli burger cause its cold."

New Yorkers must have strong constitutions to eat a chili burger early in the morning :P

And I'm left wondering if you made it, or if they're available in NYC for breakfast?


        & nbsp; either / or,
        & nbsp; though i made this one (have a Latin gut**)
        & nbsp; But some places have it in the AM, though i don't buy it, as i think its really yesterdays (illllllllllllllll) refrigD.
        & nbsp;
        & nbsp; **As kids we're (some Latin families)feed chilli to kids under 5, i'm surprised we don't have Cap 'n Chili (as opposed to Cap n Crunch) breakfast cereals. i do drink LOTS of water.
Quoting 258. vis0:

i digress & i vis0 removed the words i posted  stating of at least 3 things Pats do (cam, deflate & clothing) to cheat so others know this info, let the chips fall where they may.

maybe a Colts need to be ban playing football vs the patriots.
Quoting 255. solarwx:



I flew typhoon wx recon the late 70's and saw plenty of lightning. Going in at night the skys would be a light with lightning around us. We would use the planes radar to keep out of the most heavy cells.


Quoting 16. Patrap:

On Monday Aug 29th,2005 round 5am as the eye wall south of Nola was rapidly approaching, we saw this in the Northern Eyewall above the high clouds as the low ones were racing lit by the streetlights. We all kinda went "wow" as no one from 80 to 45 had ever seen that before in a Hurricane.

It was memorable to say the least.




warm up with no more ice on the trees
Flood Death Toll Across Southern Africa Reaches 260
By Mike Cohen, Frank Jomo and Tom Bowker Jan 19, 2015 10:49 AM ET

The likely death toll from flooding and torrential rain in Mozambique, Malawi and the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar reached 260, with about 360,000 people driven from their homes.

Seventy-one people have died in northern and central Mozambique, with 80,000 displaced, Rita de Almeida, spokeswoman for the country’s National Disaster Management Institute, said on Monday by phone from the capital, Maputo.

In Malawi, at least 176 people are feared to have died, while about 200,000 have fled their homes, Vice President Saulos Chilima told reporters on Jan. 17 in Nkula, 100 kilometers (63 miles) north of the commercial capital, Blantyre. The southern districts of Nsanje, Chikwawa and Phalombe, which border on Mozambique, were worst hit, he said.

In Madagascar, which lies offshore of Mozambique, tropical storm Chedza claimed 13 lives and displaced at least 80,000 people, the island-nation’s National Office for Disaster Management said in a statement issued in the capital, Antananarivo.

Heavy rain is forecast across Madagascar, northern Mozambique, Malawi and Zambia and southern Tanzania over the next few days, which may worsen the flooding situation, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in southern Africa, said in an e-mailed statement.
[...]
Full Story -Bloomberg News
Quoting 194. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe Taz and his "La Nino" were on to something. :)

.2101 sigma velocity potential correlation to Nino 3.4 region for the month of January:



.2101 sigma velocity potential anomaly map valid Jan 1-Jan 16, 2015



Let me explain this post more. The two images I show depict the motion of air in the upper levels of atmosphere. The green, yellow, orange, and red colors indicate anomalous upper-level convergence, or air that is colliding and sinking towards the surface. This suppresses convection (and tropical cyclone activity). The blue and purple colors indicate upper-level divergence, or air that is pulling apart and rising. This enhances convection and lowers surface pressures, which can enhance tropical cyclone activity. Using these two images, one can better understand the state of the Walker Circulation. In the first image, I have plotted what the Walker CIrculation should look like when correlated to January El Nino events. Note the pattern of enhanced divergence across the Indian Ocean, enhanced convergence across the Maritime Continent, and enhanced divergence across the Central and East Pacific. The second image shows velocity potential anomalies for the first 16 days of January. As you can see, there are some huge differences, with convergence across the Indian Ocean, divergence across the Maritime Continent and West Pacific. This is more similar to what the Walker Circulation resembles in a La Nina than in an El Nino. Despite this, sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial East Pacific have generally been warmer than 0.5C for several months. Hence the declaration of a "La Nino." :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


That 850 mb layer needs to be a couple of degrees cooler in order to have a decent shot at even a little bit of snow. Overnight temperatures may only get to around 39 or 40F over here, and that's pretty insufficient when you consider how warm the 850 mb layer is; it would take a lot of evaporation to cool that layer enough to get some action going.
Yeah, the Boys chickened out this morning and removed the snow for now. The Euro and CMC are still showing a pretty strong system but the GFS is now showing a sheared southern stream and never phases the troughs so they've decided to stay on the sidelines for the next couple of model runs. If we do get a surface low develop in the Gulf that stays south, at least we get more rain than other solutions, but these little winter teasers need to develop a better supply of moisture and cold air before we get anything. The low got down to 28 under ideal radiational cooling, about 7 degrees cooler than originally forecast.
Let me explain this post more. The two images I show depict the motion of air in the upper levels of atmosphere. The green, yellow, orange, and red colors indicate anomalous upper-level convergence, or air that is colliding and sinking towards the surface. This suppresses convection (and tropical cyclone activity). The blue and purple colors indicate upper-level divergence, or air that is pulling apart and rising. This enhances convection and lowers surface pressures, which can enhance tropical cyclone activity. Using these two images, one can better understand the state of the Walker Circulation. In the first image, I have plotted what the Walker CIrculation should look like when correlated to January El Nino events. Note the pattern of enhanced divergence across the Indian Ocean, enhanced convergence across the Maritime Continent, and enhanced divergence across the Central and East Pacific. The second image shows velocity potential anomalies for the first 16 days of January. As you can see, there are some huge differences, with convergence across the Indian Ocean, divergence across the Maritime Continent and West Pacific. This is more similar to what the Walker Circulation resembles in a La Nina than in an El Nino. Despite this, sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial East Pacific have generally been warmer than 0.5C for several months. Hence the declaration of a "La Nino." :)


not to worry bubba....i think most of us understood what you were saying........you can look here at eath.nullschool.net and see the westerlies once again aren't a blowin.....

walks off singing....the answer my friend...is blowin in the wind...the answer is blowin in the wind
Quoting 265. ricderr:

never mind scott as the question was facetious........this might better let you understand the relationship between the SOI and ENSO


The SOI is an index used to quantify
the strength of an ENSO event. It is
calculated from the difference between
the sea level pressure (SLP) at Tahiti
and Darwin. Although there are several
methods of determining this
relationship, a method often used, and
shown in Figure 2, was presented by Troup (1965):



It's also important to consider the weather before getting too excited.. as that can change the daily value radically & why really the average is more important overall when determining the strength of an ENSO event..

Check out what it right next to Darwin today & has got the daily SOI in such a negative state.. This should be our next storm to follow.

94S

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting ACSeattle:

9 hours ago, jb tweeted "brutal cold still in store last week of month for east ". Let's see how that pans out first. Last week he took credit for a spike in natural gas prices, which is kinda odd, seeing how much he adds to the supply. His ideological soup is evidently attractive to some. Let's see if traders are still willing to put their money where his mouth is going forward
JB took credit for the recent four day spike in nat gas prices? What a joke. Big time traders have their own mets on contract to look for cold waves, and it ain't JB. WSI, the commodity forecasting arm of TWC, has really been hyping cold waves all this month and is hyping another one for late January into February. So far, they've been mostly wrong, but it's pretty clear they have some big clients who are getting burned on the long side and WSI is trying to rescue them. Nat gas prices went up last week because there were some bets that supply would come down because of the real cold we had at beginning of January, plus some technical action due to short covering and options expiration. I got in a day too late and exited a day too early but still made some money. Nat gas is coming down again because it turns out supply didn't drop and our cold wave wasn't all that bad. It's down another 4.5% today last I looked. We need a prolonged and severe Arctic air outbreak to really move nat gas and I don't see that by the end of the month.
Exactly the spot I was thinking about. That's too funny. Maile, Nanakuli (Choo choo) will all be going off, but have had several close calls with the local contingency out that way. Got some good head high beach break yesterday in NC, but can't compare. I've once seen a winter west swell wrap all the way into Ala Moana beach park.

Charge 'em brah!


Quoting 267. FarmerKarl:

Hey Haole! When I was flying P-3s out of Barbers Pt in the 80s, we used to love surfing the Jetty at Coasties on Barbers Point on swells like this. It would sometimes catch the wrap from a northwest and peel right. It would hold 8-10 Hawaiian with the right swell. Ah the good old days... Eat, sleep, surf and fly! And head to town for an occasional beverage...


Quoting 131. vis0:

     YES after clicking quote 18 times (8 mins. after pg fully loaded)  it finally opened, technology?
As usual, pay attn to weather watches , NE floods or ICE.and when i wanted to correct that NAGA5000 not Patrap posted what made me laff, nothing updated so i post a capture of my comment. HERE::



Ahh...the colors, man, the colors...