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NOAA Reduces Odds of El Niño Conditions This Winter

By: Bob Henson 2:29 PM GMT on January 08, 2015

The chance of a noteworthy El Niño event this winter is becoming more slender, diminishing along with California’s chances for more drought relief. In its latest monthly outlook on the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), issued this morning, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center continued its El Niño Watch but reduced the odds of El Niño conditions from the previous 65% to approximately 50–60%. Moreover, the agency now calls for ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) to be the most likely state of affairs from March onward. This is a significant change from NOAA’s previous monthly outlook, which had projected that El Niño conditions would likely extend into spring 2015.

NOAA considers El Niño conditions to be in place when monthly sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are at least 0.5°C above average in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific. To qualify as an El Niño episode, the SSTs in this region must remain at or above the 0.5°C threshold for five consecutive overlapping periods of three months (i.e., a total of seven months).

Using this yardstick, weak El Niño conditions have now prevailed for more than two months. After rising above 0.5°C in mid-October, the Niño3.4 SST anomalies peaked near 1.0°C in late November, then began dropping (see Figure 1). The anomalies are now at 0.5°C, barely qualifying as El Niño-worthy. Should the 0.5°C anomaly hold for a few more months (not at all a sure thing), the 2014–15 El Niño would manage to go down in history as a bona fide episode, though a rather unimpressive one.



Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature in degrees Celsius (left-hand axis) across the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean. After briefly surging above the El Niño threshold (0.5°C above average) in late May 2014, sea-surface temperatures sagged back into neutral territory until autumn. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


Because El Niño’s impacts on California and the southwest United States are closely tied to the intensity of the Niño3.4 anomalies, there is now less confidence that El Niño will help bring beneficial rain and snow this winter to these drought-stricken parts of the nation. NOAA’s Mike Halpert includes helpful background and graphics on typical U.S. impacts from El Niño in a feature story on the climate.gov website.

Why has El Niño been so hard to predict lately?
Forecasters have been scratching their heads over the state of ENSO for almost a year. Early in 2014, several large, shallow pulses of warm water called Kelvin waves made their way across the tropical Pacific. One of these was comparable in size and strength to the Kelvin wave that helped kick off the record-setting, high-impact El Niño of 1997–98. The behavior of the Pacific in early 2014, together with impressive projections from some coupled atmosphere-ocean models, led NOAA and other forecast groups to call for a significant chance of El Niño conditions by mid- to late 2014. These observations and outlooks gained widespread attention in the press and blogosphere, leading to some eye-catching headlines trumpeting the chance of a "super El Niño." Official forecasts were more cautious, stopping short of calling for a strong event, as Weather Underground climate blogger Ricky Rood outlined in an illuminating comparision last August. (It's also important to keep in mind that even a 70% chance of an event like El Niño—quite high by seasonal prediction standards—means that there is a 30% chance the event won’t occur.)


Figure 2. Departures from average sea-surface height as detected by NASA's Jason satellite on December 10, 1997 (top), when a major El Niño event was in full swing, and by the Jason-2 satellite on December 20, 2014 (bottom). Since water expands as it warms, higher sea-surface heights (whites and oranges) indicate warmer waters. The bright white in the 1997 image conveys the power of that year’s record-breaking El Niño, especially when compared to the underperforming 2014. Image credit: NASA.


Although the tropical Pacific waters behaved as if a major El Niño was on tap, it seems the atmosphere didn't get the message. Throughout 2014, the atmospheric component of El Niño failed to emerge consistently even as oceanic conditions appeared favorable. For example, a developing El Niño typically sees trade winds weakening across the eastern Pacific, which facilitates the eastward spread of warm surface water. Although several bursts of westerly wind did appear in 2014, these have not translated into widespread, long-lived weakening of the easterly trade winds. Without the linkage that emerges from this kind of ocean-atmosphere interaction, it is difficult for El Niño conditions to take hold in a big way.

One researcher’s take on the mystery
ENSO was on the agenda at this week's annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society, where sessions on Tuesday morning and afternoon focused on the challenges of predicting El Niño and La Niña and what’s been learned over the last 20-plus years.

Eminent ENSO researcher Michael McPhaden (NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) presented a surprise talk on Tuesday called "Who Killed the 2014 El Niño?" The answer remains unclear, as McPhaden emphasized by presenting a rogue’s gallery of possible culprits in the form of a police lineup. These included:

--Negative feedbacks, or interactions that work against El Niño development rather than nourishing it.
--The negative state of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which supports rainfall in the far western tropical Pacific, as opposed to its typical eastward shift of rainfall during El Niño.
--The negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which has been in place since the late 1990s. A negative PDO tends to be associated with reduced El Niño activity.
--A lack of westerly wind bursts strong enough to kick off El Niño.
--Persistently warm SSTs in the "warm pool" of the western tropical Pacific, where water temperatures normally drop below average during El Niño.

It will take time and research to figure out to what extent the demise of the anticipated 2014 El Niño was a group effort versus a solo job. However, it seems clear that the lack of the usual atmospheric involvement sealed the deal. As McPhaden put it, "The atmosphere is not engaged."

Bob Henson

Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thank's for the update Mr henson ya just busted the el nino bubble for some

have a great day regards
Wow!
Nice post.
I knew it wasn't Dr. Masters because it's too early for one of his updates.

Thanks
Mr. Bob Henson
east haven weather Next 6 Hours
Sunny with temperatures rising towards the low 20s. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph.
Thank You Mr. Henson. I would add the following to the questions being pondered on the Enso issue. If we do get enso-neutral conditions this summer, again, for the Atlantic Hurricane season, this will be the fourth year in a row with enso neutral conditions for this particular hurricane season..............This may be a record streak.
good blog
What's the sayin?...

A WATCHED POT NEVER BOILS!!
Thanks! It seems we're stuck in bold print again.
no El Niño for this winter by the spring time El Niño will be here
Thanks for the El Nino Bubble Busting update Mr. Henson!
Thanks Mr. Henson!

Got down to 3 this morning, and Nashville closed schools today.
Please excuse my ignorance here, but what is the difference between an El Nino and a La Nina?
Thank you. Very interesting "Whodunnit"-blog and fresh from the AMS meeting to boot.


light snow on friday on jan 9 2015!! northeast weather
Quoting 11. TracySaunders:

Please excuse my ignorance here, but what is the difference between an El Nino and a La Nina?
el nino is warming ocean conditions while la nina is cooling ocean conditions and neutral is not warming or cooling conditions
2015 hurricane season will be here before we know it. Thank you Mr. Henson. Great post.
Up to 2 Feet of Snow Possible

A clipper system would bring up to a foot of snow across parts of the upper Midwest, and maybe two feet of snow near Buffalo.
Quoting 11. TracySaunders:

Please excuse my ignorance here, but what is the difference between an El Nino and a La Nina?


That's a very broad question. The link below will give you an overview of the phenomenon.

El Nino Southern Oscillation
Quoting 11. TracySaunders:
Please excuse my ignorance here, but what is the difference between an El Nino and a La Nina?

Quoting 15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
el nino is warming ocean conditions while la nina is cooling ocean conditions and neutral is not warming or cooling conditions


Source.


US Current Dew Points wow -17 dew point is crazy
Quoting 11. TracySaunders:

Please excuse my ignorance here, but what is the difference between an El Nino and a La Nina?


Climate Patterns in the Pacific

Research conducted over recent decades has shed considerable light on the important role played by interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean in altering global weather and climate patterns. During El Niño events, for example, sea temperatures at the surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than normal. In contrast, during La Niña events, the sea surface temperatures in these regions become colder than normal. These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the globe and, once initiated, such events can last for 12 months or more. The strong El Niño event of 1997-1998 was followed by a prolonged La Niña phase that extended from mid-1998 to early 2001. El Niño/La Niña events change the likelihood of particular climate patterns around the globe, but the outcomes of each event are never exactly the same. Furthermore, while there is generally a relationship between the global impacts of an El Niño/La Niña event and its intensity, there is always potential for an event to generate serious impacts in some regions irrespective of its intensity.


Quoting 11. TracySaunders:

Please excuse my ignorance here, but what is the difference between an El Nino and a La Nina?


Welcome!

This YouTube 4-minute video explains them both pretty well: El Nino - La Nina

EL NINO rip
Quoting 11. TracySaunders:

Please excuse my ignorance here, but what is the difference between an El Nino and a La Nina?


El Nino is a condition where the Eastern Equatorial Pacific warms a lot and the western Equatorial Pacific cools a little (But its heat content goes way down because the thermocline rises there). The net is a positive departure in equatorial averaged Pacific SST. This has qualitatively been known for
centuries but cause and evolution was not known until the 70s.

El Nino can be described analytically with a pure two layer ocean model as a kelvin wave propagating along the thermocline. In the absence of atmospheric feedback it takes about two to three months for an equatorial Kelvin wave to propagate eastward across the Pacific to North America and then reflect back as Rossby waves (Kelvin waves only propagate east). This is several times faster than has ever been observed and it is clear that atmospheric feedback heavily modulates the evolution of El Nino events. This feedback however cannot be analytically described, it must be modeled and it is a very tough modeling problem, attacked (not by me) when I was in graduate school three decades ago and still not solved. That's the best I can do since I never went back for a PhD and my science is stale.
Bye Bye

Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:



El Nino is a condition where the Eastern Equatorial Pacific warms a lot and the western Equatorial Pacific cools a little (But its heat content goes way down because the thermocline rises there). The net is a positive departure in equatorial averaged Pacific SST. This has qualitatively been known for
centuries but cause and evolution was not known until the 70s.

El Nino can be described analytically with a pure two layer ocean model as a kelvin wave propagating along the thermocline. In the absence of atmospheric feedback it takes about two to three months for an equatorial Kelvin wave to propagate eastward across the Pacific to North America and then reflect back as Rossby waves (Kelvin waves only propagate east). This is several times faster than has ever been observed and it is clear that atmospheric feedback heavily modulates the evolution of El Nino events. This feedback however cannot be analytically described, it must be modeled and it is a very tough modeling problem, attacked (not by me) when I was in graduate school three decades ago and still not solved. That's the best I can do since I never went back for a PhD and my science is stale.



You have a degree in meteorology?
And, of course, a last but unstated reason why things haven't worked out liked forecast for El Nino is -

"We just don't know".

Made it down to 13 last night. The NWS predicted 17 and I predicted 9 so we split the difference. The winds stayed up all this morning, and are still averaging 10 mph with 16 mph gusts, so I think that's what stopped us from getting lower. The record low for today was 10 degrees just last year so we stayed comfortably above that. The dewpoint is still only 6 and the windchill is 13 so it's a really miserable morning even with full sun. It does look like the winds start to swing south later today so, although it will still be miserable, it won't be record breakingly miserable. :-)
And, yet there is a huge area of anomalously warm surface sea water from the California coast to the Alaskan coast and on into the Bering sea (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.a nom.gif) that reresents as much anomolus heat at the surface as an El Nino. This much heat must change atmospheric dynamics, and yet the El Nino study groups do not address it. it appeared about the time we saw Kelvin waves moving east.

Where did this heat come from? This much heat does not just appear in the late fall. I am not saying anything except that when i was a kid, heat did not just appear and disappear.
Quoting 27. Drakoen:



You have a degree in meteorology?


BS PSU 81
MS FSU 87
Try to simplify things for members that may not know what Rossby waves or Kelvin waves are.
El-Nino

When the air pressure patterns in the South Pacific reverse (the air pressure in the west is higher than in the east), the trade winds decrease in strength (and can reverse direction).
This pushes the thermocline deeper and a decrease in the upwelling.
With a deeper thermocline and decreased westward transport of water, the sea surface temperature increases to greater than nornmal in the Eastern Pacific. This is the warm phase of ENSO, called El-Nino.
The net result is a shift of the prevailing rain pattern from the normal Western Pacific to the Central Pacific.

Results:
wet flooding conditions, poor fishing in South America
drought and wildfires in Australia/SE Asia
warm winters in the Northeast and Midwestern United States, increased hurricane activity due to warm waters


La-Nina

There are occasions when the trade winds that blow west across the tropical Pacific are stronger than normal leading to increased upwelling off South America and hence the lower than normal sea surface temperatures.

The prevailing rain pattern also shifts farther west than normal. These winds pile up warm surface water in the West Pacific. This is the cool phase of ENSO called La Nina.
What is suprising is these changes in sea surface temperatures are not large, plus or minus 6 degrees F (3 degrees Celsius) and generally much less.
Results: the opposite of El Nino

Link
Oh boy oh boy what a post! Maybe our one famous blogger declaring El Nino any moment now for over a year will cool it (no pun intended) lol. Highly unlikely though. Kind of sucks for California as they still need a ton of rain. Also means that the future 2015 hurricane season may not be 'dead'. So much for long range models.

On a side note: Brrrrrrrr for one day down here.
The last major typhoon that moved into the Northern Pacific (I believe in late November), and which was responsible for the polar "ripple" that caused early cold snap across Conus, also transported some warmer waters. Dr. Masters suggested in a post back then that this might be the "push" needed to move firmly into the forecasted El Nino but full blown/strong conditions never materialized at that time from this storm.
The lack of strong westerly windburst could be due to a weak MJO, since the two phenomena are linked.

Related to this I found two presentations from the ECMWF.

The first presentation is about extended range predictions with coupled ocean-atmosphere models.
http://nwmstest.ecmwf.int/staff/roberto_buizza/Wo rk/Lectures/Confs_WSs_Sems/RB_2014_03_Imperial_Cou pled_ensembles_OppChall_v1.pdf

The second presentation is about seasonal predictions.
http://www.ems2012.eu/ems2012_presentation_buizza .pdf
Quoting 28. sar2401:

And, of course, a last but unstated reason why things haven't worked out liked forecast for El Nino is -

"We just don't know".

Made it down to 13 last night. The NWS predicted 17 and I predicted 9 so we split the difference. The winds stayed up all this morning, and are still averaging 10 mph with 16 mph gusts, so I think that's what stopped us from getting lower. The record low for today was 10 degrees just last year so we stayed comfortably above that. The dewpoint is still only 6 and the windchill is 13 so it's a really miserable morning even with full sun. It does look like the winds start to swing south later today so, although it will still be miserable, it won't be record breakingly miserable. :-)


9 at my house in College Park MD. Back to 13F now. Woodstove maintained delta-t of 60 degrees in the house last night 70 inside 10, outside. I have 100 pounds of wood less than yesterday at this time. Dogs only took 10 minute walk outside this morning. They get cold.

Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:

El-Nino

When the air pressure patterns in the South Pacific reverse (the air pressure in the west is higher than in the east), the trade winds decrease in strength (and can reverse direction).
This pushes the thermocline deeper and a decrease in the upwelling.
With a deeper thermocline and decreased westward transport of water, the sea surface temperature increases to greater than nornmal in the Eastern Pacific. This is the warm phase of ENSO, called El Niño.
The net result is a shift of the prevailing rain pattern from the normal Western Pacific to the Central Pacific.

Results:
wet flooding conditions, poor fishing in South America
drought and wildfires in Australia/SE Asia
warm winters in the Northeast and Midwestern United States, increased hurricane activity due to warm waters


La-Nina

There are occasions when the trade winds that blow west across the tropical Pacific are stronger than normal leading to increased upwelling off South America and hence the lower than normal sea surface temperatures.

The prevailing rain pattern also shifts farther west than normal. These winds pile up warm surface water in the West Pacific. This is the cool phase of ENSO called La Niña.
What is suprising is these changes in sea surface temperatures are not large, plus or minus 6°F (3°C) and generally much less.
Results: the opposite of El Nino

Link


That is a great graphic. Thanks for posting.
Quoting capeflorida:
Bye Bye

So the CPC, rather than "pulling the trigger" on El Nino decided to shoot and seriously wound it instead?

I'm awaiting word from the STS Forecasting Center before I make any decisions on this.


Moisture returning to the East Coast due to a more easterly wind flow.
Quoting 11. TracySaunders:

Please excuse my ignorance here, but what is the difference between an El Nino and a La Nina?
el nino is warming ocean conditions while la nina is cooling ocean conditions and neutral is not warming or cooling conditions
Quoting 29. Agres:

And, yet there is a huge area of anomalously warm surface sea water from the California coast to the Alaskan coast and on into the Bering sea (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.a nom.gif) that reresents as much anomolus heat at the surface as an El Nino. This much heat must change atmospheric dynamics, and yet the El Nino study groups do not address it. it appeared about the time we saw Kelvin waves moving east.

Where did this heat come from? This much heat does not just appear in the late fall. I am not saying anything except that when i was a kid, heat did not just appear and disappear.
its been there since last winter maybe even longer I only notice the area last winter and its persisting thinking its the monkey wrench that has been throwing everything off as of late maybe

here is the earth model which has been updated with some new ocean layers showing the anomalies



link too the earth model

Link
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


9 at my house in College Park MD. Back to 13F now. Woodstove maintained delta-t of 60 degrees in the house last night 70 inside 10, outside. I have 100 pounds of wood less than yesterday at this time. Dogs only took 10 minute walk outside this morning. They get cold.

Yes, Radar Dog decided his walk would be run out the door, pee, and run back in again. :-) We'll see if my leveraged play for natural gas finally works out this week. It's like all the traders woke up this morning and discovered it's really cold outside, so it's moving strongly higher this morning. It's too bad there's not a futures market on firewood. I'd buy that in a heartbeat. Is your wood stove backup heat for the furnace or was it able to maintain 70 with just wood alone? I keep going back and forth on getting a wood stove. A good one is really expensive now and, with the cost of firewood soaring, it's hard to make that investment pencil out compared to getting more efficient gas furnaces instead.
Impacts on the hurricane season.





Link
Quoting sar2401:
So the CPC, rather than "pulling the trigger" on El Nino decided to shoot and seriously wound it instead?

I'm awaiting word from the STS Forecasting Center before I make any decisions on this.


The forecast center you are mentioning may not be around today since he does not prefer to eat crow. The center will reopen in a few days in hopes that everyone forgets the missed prediction.
So there may be only a little bit of help for this:

Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:



BS PSU 81
MS FSU 87



Great to have more meteorologists on here.
Scott's not going to be a happy chappy.
Quoting 35. georgevandenberghe:



9 at my house in College Park MD. Back to 13F now. Woodstove maintained delta-t of 60 degrees in the house last night 70 inside 10, outside. I have 100 pounds of wood less than yesterday at this time. Dogs only took 10 minute walk outside this morning. They get cold.


warming here as well now at 9.9 f with a chill of -9 f o just hit 10.0 with the warming comes snow
Quoting 44. Drakoen:



Great to have more meteorologists on here.
there is a lot here drak I think you and me both would be very surprised
Quoting MahFL:
Scott's not going to be a happy chappy.



oh cares that what he gets for jumping the gune for over a year now saying we will get a super EL Nino and look nothing
Quoting Neapolitan:
So there may be only a little bit of help for this:



Yeah I was just reading an article this morning about the plans for increasing desalination Projects throughout California.
In all honesty, long-term forecasting (and especially based on models) is tentative by definition and things don't always pan out as predicted. As I mentioned a few months ago on this issue, nothing wrong with hanging your hat on any particular forecast or model run but to suggest that you cannot be wrong, or to rub in any one's faces if you happened to be correct, based on a lucky guess, is simply, well, childish.

This is why meteorology is so challenging, and sometimes unpredictable, as noted so well by today's El Nino post.
Oh oh, NWS JAX says there is a slight chance of freezing rain tonight, thankfully I have a day off tomorrow and do not need to commute anywhere.
Quoting 48. Tazmanian:




oh cares that what he gets for jumping the gune for over a year now saying we will get a super EL Nino and look nothing
we would be best to just sway away from this before everything gets out of hand and let the information speak for itself


El Nino being difficult to forecast really surprises me! Oh wait, no it doesn't. Seasonal climatic outlooks, hurricane outlooks, el nino, la nina, blah, blah blah. They pan out about as often as they don't. A Dr. Henson pointed out, a seventy percent chance of yes, still leaves a thirty percent chance of no.
Scott may be/have been enthusiastic about El Nino...but I for one have learned a lot from his posts, as well as from others who have been posting updates regarding indicators pertaining to El Nino/La Nina/etc. Some of you guys seem to like deriding his posts, but based on Henson's blog, Scott's position was not that out of line w/ NOAA's position on El Nino.

Even if he was dead wrong, his posts still contained a lot of useful information.



Quoting 40. sar2401:

Yes, Radar Dog decided his walk would be run out the door, pee, and run back in again. :-) We'll see if my leveraged play for natural gas finally works out this week. It's like all the traders woke up this morning and discovered it's really cold outside, so it's moving strongly higher this morning. It's too bad there's not a futures market on firewood. I'd buy that in a heartbeat. Is your wood stove backup heat for the furnace or was it able to maintain 70 with just wood alone? I keep going back and forth on getting a wood stove. A good one is really expensive now and, with the cost of firewood soaring, it's hard to make that investment pencil out compared to getting more efficient gas furnaces instead.


Front half of the house is heated with gas. Back half (addition built by previous owners 1991) is heated by a heat pump with electric resistance backup and also by the woodstove. I try to keep the heat pump and resistance off in really cold weather. It did click on a few times last night since its thermostat is upstairs and the woodstove is downstairs. But the woodstove was basically carrying the back half of the house.

My woodstove, burns logs. Pelleted ones are more efficient but require electric power and one of my advantages is being able to heat when I lose power. My brother in law has a pelleted one and has lost power. I got him a tiny 800w generator to power its electrics last year. Usually I have a ready source of wood from two tree surgeons I know but the derecho of 2012 created a huge glut of firewood from these guys followed by the current dearth so I am short. And I have tendinitis in both elbows so can't split a lot this year anyway. I could just punt and buy it split and may do that next month if cold continues.

The other problem with pelleted ones is occasional infuriating shortages of the sacks of pellets esp towards the end of cold winters. But I have to either bank my log one at night or build a new fire the next morning's rush because it won't last the night with one load of seasoned wood.

I also have to clean the chimney at least yearly burning seasoned wood. If you burn green or softwood, that's more like monthly during the cold season.
Quoting WxGuy2014:


The forecast center you are mentioning may not be around today since he does not prefer to eat crow. The center will reopen in a few days in hopes that everyone forgets the missed prediction.
But, seriously, this is why a real forecaster doesn't have a predetermined or preferred outcome and then spend their time hunting up models that support that outcome. At some point, there has to be enough real weather, e.g., synoptics, to support the models or it's just smoke and mirrors. There were plenty of aggressive El Nino forecasts to go around last year at this time, but the real pros kept warning that forecasting the actual onset of El Nino is difficult and forecasting the strength is basically impossible. Nothing about that has changed today except the synoptics aren't supporting some of the models. It's one thing to be aggressive when you're forecasting a possible life threatening event that's an hour away but quite another when forecasting an event that's going to take months to unfold.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we would be best to just sway away from this before everything gets out of hand and let the information speak for itself




heh good point there
And to think that, for many datasets, 2014 was the warmest year on record--and that without the benefit of an El Nino.

Now imagine if one had actually occurred...
Quoting 51. ncstorm:

Scott is not the only one who will be eating crow..there are still a couple here who posts the el nino graphs here every day or from different agencies declaring an el nino is coming..

and then were those who were claiming thousands of lives would be lost due to the El Nino and we would be looking at devastation at this point but we all know El Nino is a scam as we were reminded about 3 times a day..a lot of posters bought into the hype and now you want to blame one particular poster for his prediction?

All the atmospheric models need work..plain and simple..no one knows how the 2015 hurricane season is going to be as we can't even get a 24 hour forecast correct..we can only guess at this point with the tools we have currently in place..

I find the daily El Nino charts far more interesting then the obsession with local Florida 7 day forecasts.
Quoting LAbonbon:
Scott may be/have been enthusiastic about El Nino...but I for one have learned a lot from his posts, as well as from others who have been posting updates regarding indicators pertaining to El Nino/La Nina/etc. Some of you guys seem to like deriding his posts, but based on Henson's blog, Scott's position was not that out of line w/ NOAA's position on El Nino.

Even if he was dead wrong, his posts still contained a lot of useful information.



It's not that his posts don't contain useful information. It's that he decided the outcome of El Nino, especially the strength, far before there was anything but some not very trustworthy models to support it. He was way off base with predicting a "Super El Nino", something no official agency ever did. It would be kind of like me forecasting that every thunderstorm outbreak was going to be a record breaker just because the NWS agreed that there was the possibility of there being a thunderstorm outbreak. I think you'd have me on the carpet pretty quick if I did this consistently, and I'd deserve it.
Quoting 59. Neapolitan:

And to think that, for many datasets, 2014 was the warmest year on record--and that without the benefit of an El Nino.

Now imagine if one had actually occurred...


All that heat is going to come out of the ocean at some point and its really going to suck for pretty much the whole planet when it does. When will that happen? I'm not even going to hazard a mis-informed, drunken, stab in the dark guess on that one.
Quoting 47. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is a lot here drak I think you and me both would be very surprised


Maybe WU should consider giving a tag to people that can verify they have a degree in meteorology similar to AmericanWX forum.
I'm no weather expert - I live on the Central Coast of California right on the ocean bluff. What I have noticed in 2013, 2014 and now that is different than past years is 1) the lack of fog in the summer months and 2) we used to get frequent strong winds off the ocean particularly winter and spring. Conditions of late are just "dead". I lived in Southern California for two decades and the weather is much more like SoCal now. Too bad.
Quoting 64. Drakoen:



Maybe WU should consider giving a tag to people that can verify they have a degree in meteorology similar to AmericanWX forum.


I doubt my blogging talents are going to improve 3.5 years from now when I get my degree, you might regret that suggestion Drak, lol. :)
Down to 28 this morning here on the mainland and 3 degrees colder on St. Simons Island. What's up with that? Still below freezing on the islands. Rumors of snow flurries on the beach.
Southerly winds blowing in as hard as the northerlies were yesterday in S C IL, pressure dropping fast as well (30.37"). Think the turn around must have happened a little earlier than expected as we only dropped to -2 instead of the forecast -4. Already have temps approaching double digits, have a forecast high of 18 today & only drop to 7 tonight. May get back to freezing by end of weekend w/ 50% chance of snow Sun nite/Mon morning.
I've modified the original post to reflect that, by NOAA's definition, an El Niño episode requires five rather than three overlapping three-month periods with Niño3.4 SSTs of 0.5°C or greater. This further accentuates the unlikelihood that we'll see an El Niño episode formally declared for winter 2014–15 by the time all is said and done.

Thanks for the comments, everyone--it is great to be part of this active and supportive community.

- Bob H.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Front half of the house is heated with gas. Back half (addition built by previous owners 1991) is heated by a heat pump with electric resistance backup and also by the woodstove. I try to keep the heat pump and resistance off in really cold weather. It did click on a few times last night since its thermostat is upstairs and the woodstove is downstairs. But the woodstove was basically carrying the back half of the house.

My woodstove, burns logs. Pelleted ones are more efficient but require electric power and one of my advantages is being able to heat when I lose power. My brother in law has a pelleted one and has lost power. I got him a tiny 800w generator to power its electrics last year. Usually I have a ready source of wood from two tree surgeons I know but the derecho of 2012 created a huge glut of firewood from these guys followed by the current dearth so I am short. And I have tendinitis in both elbows so can't split a lot this year anyway. I could just punt and buy it split and may do that next month if cold continues.

The other problem with pelleted ones is occasional infuriating shortages of the sacks of pellets esp towards the end of cold winters. But I have to either bank my log one at night or build a new fire the next morning's rush because it won't last the night with one load of seasoned wood.

I also have to clean the chimney at least yearly burning seasoned wood. If you burn green or softwood, that's more like monthly during the cold season.
I've looked at pellet stoves and the requirement for an electrical power source put me off, even though they are more efficient than split wood stoves. As long as the power stays on the amount of power that a pellet stove consumes isn't very much, but it's having an alternate source of heat in a major ice storm that makes a wood stove appealing to me. Like I wrote, I'd be better off financially to invest in two new furnaces to replace my 20+ year old models than to ever buy a wood stove, but the backup source of heat doesn't get answered with that option either. If I had unlimited funds, I'd just do them all but, alas, I don't, so I have to make most of my decision based on payback time.

The other issue down here is that the vast majority of firewood is pine. Properly seasoned, it's a good source of heat, but it burns about twice as fast as something like oak, so that means feeding and backing the stove twice as often as well. Stoves that will handle really big logs that burn pine more efficiently are now up to about $5,000. Like you, I'm not getting younger, so splitting, stacking, and carrying firewood is not only a lot more difficult, it may not even be possible some day in the future. That nature of pine is that it also creosotes up the chimney that much faster as well.

It would be nice if there was one decision I could make that would be easy...:-)
Quoting 63. tampabaymatt:



Yeah, heaven forbid people post about their local weather on a weather blog.

See Blog topic:
Atmospheric Phenomena
civEngineer, since you've only posted 6 comments I should tell you that people posting about their local weather is always appropriate.
Leave fossil fuels buried to prevent climate change, study urges

New research is first to identify which reserves must not be burned to keep global temperature rise under 2C, including over 90% of US and Australian coal and almost all Canadian tar sands

• George Monbiot: Why leaving fossil fuels in the ground is good for everyone.

Vast amounts of oil in the Middle East, coal in the US, Australia and China and many other fossil fuel reserves will have to be left in the ground to prevent dangerous climate change, according to the first analysis to identify which existing reserves cannot be burned.

The new work reveals the profound geopolitical and economic implications of tackling global warming for both countries and major companies that are reliant on fossil fuel wealth. It shows trillions of dollars of known and extractable coal, oil and gas, including most Canadian tar sands, all Arctic oil and gas and much potential shale gas, cannot be exploited if the global temperature rise is to be kept under the 2C safety limit agreed by the world’s nations. Currently, the world is heading for a catastrophic 5C of warming and the deadline to seal a global climate deal comes in December at a crunch UN summit in Paris.

“We’ve now got tangible figures of the quantities and locations of fossil fuels that should remain unused in trying to keep within the 2C temperature limit,” said Christophe McGlade, at University College London (UCL), and who led the new research published in the journal Nature. The work, using detailed data and well-established economic models, assumed cost effective climate policies would use the cheapest fossil fuels first, with more expensive fuels priced out of a world in which carbon emissions were strictly limited. For example, the model predicts that significant cheap-to-produce conventional oil would be burned but that the carbon limit would be reached before more expensive tar sands oil could be used.

It was already known that there is about three times more fossil fuel in reserves that could be exploited today than is compatible with 2C, and over 10 times more fossil fuel resource that could be exploited in future. But the new study is the first to reveal which fuels from which countries would have to be abandoned. It also shows that technology to capture and bury carbon emissions, touted by some as a way to continue substantial fossil fuel use in power stations, makes surprisingly little difference to the amount of coal, oil and gas deemed unburnable.


Major fossil fuel companies face the risk that significant parts of their reserves will become worthless, with Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Exxaro owning huge coal reserves and Lukoil, Exxon Mobil, BP, Gazprom and Chevron owning massive oil and gas reserves.


If the world’s nations keep their pledge to combat climate change, the analysis finds the prospects are bleakest for coal, the most polluting of all fossil fuels. Globally, 82% of today’s reserves must be left underground. In major coal producing nations like the US, Australia and Russia, more than 90% of coal reserves are unused in meeting the 2C pledge. In China and India, both heavy and growing coal users, 66% of reserves are unburnable.

While the prospects for gas are better, the study still found 50% of global reserves must remain unburned. But there are stark regional variations, with the giant gas producers in the Middle East and Russia having to leave huge quantities underground, while the US and Europe can exploit 90% or more of their reserves to replace coal and provide local power to their large cities. Some fracking for shale gas is consistent with the 2C target, according to the study, but is dominated by the existing industry in the US, with China, India, Africa and the Middle East needing to leave 80% of their potential shale gas unburned.

Oil has the lowest proportion of unburnable fuel, with a third left unused. However, the Middle East is still required to leave 260bn barrels of oil in the ground, an amount equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s entire oil reserve. The study’s conclusion on the exploitation of Canada’s oil sands is blunt, finding production must fall to “negligible” levels after 2020 if the 2C scenario is to be fulfilled. The research also finds no climate-friendly scenario in which any oil or gas is drilled in the Arctic.

The Syncrude Canada Ltd. mine is seen in this aerial photograph taken above the Athabasca Oil Sands near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2014. Facebook Twitter Pinterest expand
The Syncrude Canada Ltd mine in Alberta, Canada. The report says Canada oil sands production must fall to ‘negligible’ levels after 2020 if the 2C scenario is to be fulfilled. Photograph: Ben Nelms/Getty Images
The new analysis calls into question the gigantic sums of private and government investment being ploughed into exploration for new fossil fuel reserves, according to UCL’s Professor Paul Ekins, who conducted the research with McGlade. “In 2013, fossil fuel companies spent some $670bn (£443bn) on exploring for new oil and gas resources. One might ask why they are doing this when there is more in the ground than we can afford to burn,” he said.

“The investors in those companies might feel that money is better spent either developing low-carbon energy sources or being returned to investors as dividends,” said Ekins.

“One lesson of this work is unmistakably obvious: when you’re in a hole, stop digging,” said Bill McKibben, co-founder of 350.org which is campaigning to get investors to dump their fossil fuel stocks. “These numbers show that unconventional and ‘extreme’ fossil fuel – Canada’s tar sands, for instance – simply have to stay in the ground.”

“Given these numbers, it makes literally no sense for the industry to go hunting for more fossil fuel,” McKibben said. “We’ve binged to the edge of our own destruction. The last thing we need now is to find a few more liquor stores to loot.”


Financial experts, including the Bank of England and Goldman Sachs, have begun taking seriously the risk that expensive fossil fuel projects will be rendered worthless by future climate action. James Leaton, research director at the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) said: “Investors are already using the detailed CTI cost curves to start identifying how low demand and price scenarios could play out.”

The research also highlights the contradiction of governments seeking to maximise their nation’s fossil fuel extraction, as in the UK, while simultaneously pledging to limit global warming to 2C. Ekins said if governments approved new fossil fuel production, they should be asked what resources elsewhere would not be exploited.

“If some UK shale gas resources turn out to be economically viable, and provided the local environmental impacts can be made acceptable, I would say we should use them,” he said. “But the caveat is what fossil fuels should we then not be using from somewhere else, if we are going to keep within the carbon budget. That is a question I have never heard asked by a policy maker in this country.”

If a global deal is signed in December to keep most fossil fuels in the ground, then compensating the losers will be key, according to Michael Jakob, a climate change economist at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change in Berlin. “If you really want to convince developing countries to leave their coal in the ground, you have to offer something else and I don’t think the Saudis will leave that oil in the ground if they get nothing for it,” he said, citing green technology including CCS, as well as financial compensation.

Jakob said the challenge was enormous, but that it provided benefits as well as costs: “There are huge sums at stake, but not just on the losers’ side but also on the winners’ side. Some assets will lose value, but others will gain value, like solar and wind power and land for biomass production.” In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that tackling global warming by diverting hundred of billions of dollars from fossil fuels into renewable energy and cutting energy waste would shave just 0.06% off expected annual economic growth rates of 1.3%-3%.

thank's for the update Mr henson ya just busted the el nino bubble for some

have a great day regards


yes....thanx bob......great post with some great information.....i for one....am not giving up on el nino just yet....and yes...i enjoy my crow fried....with country gravy on the side
Great blog by CPC written by Emily Becker named Little Engine that couldn't quite

For sure is a great discussion of why they think El Nino is not going to happen.
Good afternoon..Got to a low of 5 degress and the wind made it feel like -7 this morning.Now this is January weather!.
Text for the user "maxcrc"
Answering your question about snow in Porto Alegre in 1879:
In our records there is little information, but what we have is that snowed in over fields of the mountain on August 7, 1879, the snow accumulated in the city of Vacaria reached two meters. It's the biggest snowfall in Brazil's history. The records mention snow in Porto Alegre that day, but no text gets reports of snow in the city.
Quoting dabirds:
Southerly winds blowing in as hard as the northerlies were yesterday in S C IL, pressure dropping fast as well (30.37"). Think the turn around must have happened a little earlier than expected as we only dropped to -2 instead of the forecast -4. Already have temps approaching double digits, have a forecast high of 18 today & only drop to 7 tonight. May get back to freezing by end of weekend w/ 50% chance of snow Sun nite/Mon morning.
Wind just shifted to the south here are well and they are starting to pick up. My temperature is "up" to 29 from 13 so I don't think I'll get much below 20 tonight. My pressure is still 30.54 but that's down from 30.59 a few hours ago so I'm hoping today was the worst of the current cold outbreak.
It? LOL.

The peace can only remain for so long on here.

civEngineer, since you've only posted 6 comments I should tell you that people posting about their local weather is always appropriate.



actually...looking at the blog rules....it often times is not...however it is something that most all of us do......

and speaking of local weather....

the cold front was rather weak here in el paso......i awoke to 30 degree temps and the wind calmed down from last evening.....on radar you could see the freezing rain move up from mexico but dissipate as it did so....leaving east el paso through central with nothing more than a few sprinkles...most school districts delayed the start of school by two hours...but there were only a few reports of black ice in the western part of the city...and no accidents reported were caused by icy roads
Quoting 29. Agres:

And, yet there is a huge area of anomalously warm surface sea water from the California coast to the Alaskan coast and on into the Bering sea (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.a nom.gif) that reresents as much anomolus heat at the surface as an El Nino. This much heat must change atmospheric dynamics, and yet the El Nino study groups do not address it. it appeared about the time we saw Kelvin waves moving east.

Where did this heat come from? This much heat does not just appear in the late fall. I am not saying anything except that when i was a kid, heat did not just appear and disappear.
The active EPAC hurricane season perhaps?
It's almost 18 degrees outside in little ole Chatham now. I might need to pop some popcorn if i keep watching this blog much longer.lol
Quoting 59. Neapolitan:

And to think that, for many datasets, 2014 was the warmest year on record--and that without the benefit of an El Nino.

Now imagine if one had actually occurred...
In x years, the denalists would use the abnormally high temperature recorded in 2014 to say there hasn't been warming in the last x-years.
Warming oceans

The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of 0.302 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.

To put it in terms one can maybe fathom, we are adding 4 Hiroshima Bombs of Heat into the oceans every second.

Food fer thought.
In other news, the National Climatic Data Center announced this morning that December 2014 was the 2nd warmest on record for the contiguous United States, behind only December 1939. Every state featured above-average temperatures for the month, with nine states recording a top 10 warmest December. However, no state saw its warmest December on record. Monthly precipitation was near normal, with a good chunk of the West actually recording above-average precipitation.




Annually, the contiguous United States was the 34th warmest going back to 1895, with an average temperature 0.5F above the 20th century average. Comparatively cool for what was Earth's warmest year on record.

quite a big change in the probabilities of an el nino in the latest model runs



The band of white is snow.
TropicalAnalystwx13 December was 0.3 degrees warmer than November here.
Quoting 79. Patrap:
Leave fossil fuels buried to prevent climate change, study urges

New research is first to identify which reserves must not be burned to keep global temperature rise under 2C, including over 90% of US and Australian coal and almost all Canadian tar sands

• George Monbiot: Why leaving fossil fuels in the ground is good for everyone.

Vast amounts of oil in the Middle East, coal in the US, Australia and China and many other fossil fuel reserves will have to be left in the ground to prevent dangerous climate change, according to the first analysis to identify which existing reserves cannot be burned.

The new work reveals the profound geopolitical and economic implications of tackling global warming for both countries and major companies that are reliant on fossil fuel wealth. It shows trillions of dollars of known and extractable coal, oil and gas, including most Canadian tar sands, all Arctic oil and gas and much potential shale gas, cannot be exploited if the global temperature rise is to be kept under the 2C safety limit agreed by the world’s nations. Currently, the world is heading for a catastrophic 5C of warming and the deadline to seal a global climate deal comes in December at a crunch UN summit in Paris.

“We’ve now got tangible figures of the quantities and locations of fossil fuels that should remain unused in trying to keep within the 2C temperature limit,” said Christophe McGlade, at University College London (UCL), and who led the new research published in the journal Nature. The work, using detailed data and well-established economic models, assumed cost effective climate policies would use the cheapest fossil fuels first, with more expensive fuels priced out of a world in which carbon emissions were strictly limited. For example, the model predicts that significant cheap-to-produce conventional oil would be burned but that the carbon limit would be reached before more expensive tar sands oil could be used.

It was already known that there is about three times more fossil fuel in reserves that could be exploited today than is compatible with 2C, and over 10 times more fossil fuel resource that could be exploited in future. But the new study is the first to reveal which fuels from which countries would have to be abandoned. It also shows that technology to capture and bury carbon emissions, touted by some as a way to continue substantial fossil fuel use in power stations, makes surprisingly little difference to the amount of coal, oil and gas deemed unburnable.


Major fossil fuel companies face the risk that significant parts of their reserves will become worthless, with Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Exxaro owning huge coal reserves and Lukoil, Exxon Mobil, BP, Gazprom and Chevron owning massive oil and gas reserves.


If the world’s nations keep their pledge to combat climate change, the analysis finds the prospects are bleakest for coal, the most polluting of all fossil fuels. Globally, 82% of today’s reserves must be left underground. In major coal producing nations like the US, Australia and Russia, more than 90% of coal reserves are unused in meeting the 2C pledge. In China and India, both heavy and growing coal users, 66% of reserves are unburnable.

While the prospects for gas are better, the study still found 50% of global reserves must remain unburned. But there are stark regional variations, with the giant gas producers in the Middle East and Russia having to leave huge quantities underground, while the US and Europe can exploit 90% or more of their reserves to replace coal and provide local power to their large cities. Some fracking for shale gas is consistent with the 2C target, according to the study, but is dominated by the existing industry in the US, with China, India, Africa and the Middle East needing to leave 80% of their potential shale gas unburned.

Oil has the lowest proportion of unburnable fuel, with a third left unused. However, the Middle East is still required to leave 260bn barrels of oil in the ground, an amount equivalent to Saudi Arabia’s entire oil reserve. The study’s conclusion on the exploitation of Canada’s oil sands is blunt, finding production must fall to “negligible” levels after 2020 if the 2C scenario is to be fulfilled. The research also finds no climate-friendly scenario in which any oil or gas is drilled in the Arctic.

The Syncrude Canada Ltd. mine is seen in this aerial photograph taken above the Athabasca Oil Sands near Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2014. Facebook Twitter Pinterest expand
The Syncrude Canada Ltd mine in Alberta, Canada. The report says Canada oil sands production must fall to ‘negligible’ levels after 2020 if the 2C scenario is to be fulfilled. Photograph: Ben Nelms/Getty Images
The new analysis calls into question the gigantic sums of private and government investment being ploughed into exploration for new fossil fuel reserves, according to UCL’s Professor Paul Ekins, who conducted the research with McGlade. “In 2013, fossil fuel companies spent some $670bn (£443bn) on exploring for new oil and gas resources. One might ask why they are doing this when there is more in the ground than we can afford to burn,” he said.

“The investors in those companies might feel that money is better spent either developing low-carbon energy sources or being returned to investors as dividends,” said Ekins.

“One lesson of this work is unmistakably obvious: when you’re in a hole, stop digging,” said Bill McKibben, co-founder of 350.org which is campaigning to get investors to dump their fossil fuel stocks. “These numbers show that unconventional and ‘extreme’ fossil fuel – Canada’s tar sands, for instance – simply have to stay in the ground.”

“Given these numbers, it makes literally no sense for the industry to go hunting for more fossil fuel,” McKibben said. “We’ve binged to the edge of our own destruction. The last thing we need now is to find a few more liquor stores to loot.”


Financial experts, including the Bank of England and Goldman Sachs, have begun taking seriously the risk that expensive fossil fuel projects will be rendered worthless by future climate action. James Leaton, research director at the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) said: “Investors are already using the detailed CTI cost curves to start identifying how low demand and price scenarios could play out.”

The research also highlights the contradiction of governments seeking to maximise their nation’s fossil fuel extraction, as in the UK, while simultaneously pledging to limit global warming to 2C. Ekins said if governments approved new fossil fuel production, they should be asked what resources elsewhere would not be exploited.

“If some UK shale gas resources turn out to be economically viable, and provided the local environmental impacts can be made acceptable, I would say we should use them,” he said. “But the caveat is what fossil fuels should we then not be using from somewhere else, if we are going to keep within the carbon budget. That is a question I have never heard asked by a policy maker in this country.”

If a global deal is signed in December to keep most fossil fuels in the ground, then compensating the losers will be key, according to Michael Jakob, a climate change economist at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change in Berlin. “If you really want to convince developing countries to leave their coal in the ground, you have to offer something else and I don’t think the Saudis will leave that oil in the ground if they get nothing for it,” he said, citing green technology including CCS, as well as financial compensation.

Jakob said the challenge was enormous, but that it provided benefits as well as costs: “There are huge sums at stake, but not just on the losers’ side but also on the winners’ side. Some assets will lose value, but others will gain value, like solar and wind power and land for biomass production.” In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that tackling global warming by diverting hundred of billions of dollars from fossil fuels into renewable energy and cutting energy waste would shave just 0.06% off expected annual economic growth rates of 1.3%-3%.

Unfortunately, Patrap, there's $27 trillion tied up in energy reserves in the ground that the energy producing companies are bound and determined to sell us, the earth be damned! That figure is from a pie chart Dr.Masters had on one of his posts late last year---don't have time to find the link as I'm at work right now.
POOF.. Thanks for the Post Mr Henson...
Guys do not re quote post 79
Unknown emergency with British Airways flight 103. Circled at 20,000 and currently is broadcasting Squawk 7700. Hopefully its nothing.
It is coming in for a landing now.

Edit: Seems to have made a successful landing. Wonder what the issue was.
Quoting SouthTampa:
In x years, the denalists would use the abnormally high temperature recorded in 2014 to say there hasn't been warming in the last x-years.
Indeed. If 2015 is cooler than 2014--by even a thousandth of a degree--you can count on the denialosphere reverberating with shouts of "It hasn't warmed in a year! So much for global warming!"
flight aware shows that to be a 787-8 on its way from London Heathrow to Calgary
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Unknown emergency with British Airways flight 103. Circled at 20,000 and currently is broadcasting Squawk 7700. Hopefully its nothing.
It is coming in for a landing now.
It's on the ground now. 7700 is the general transponder code for an emergency but I haven't heard the source of the emergency. Brand new 787 Dreamliner.
For those who are not aware, SQUAWK-7700 is a in flight emergency transponder Code.
Now back to our regularly schd program
It's official. Snow flurries outside the window.

Quoting 103. hurricanehunter27:

Unknown emergency with British Airways flight 103. Circled at 20,000 and currently is broadcasting Squawk 7700. Hopefully its nothing.
It is coming in for a landing now.

Edit: Seems to have made a successful landing. Wonder what the issue was.


I wonder as well. Looked for any breaking news on it, but no luck.
31F in NOLA

I can see the back side of the clouds clear as a feeder band in August.

Quoting 109. DonnieBwkGA:

It's official. Snow flurries outside the window.


its snowing in jax or is that virga
Quoting 113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its snowing in jax or is that virga


Why gee keep, U should know ,eh?

Try the local obs maybe?
Quoting 114. Patrap:



Why gee keep, U should know ,eh?

Try the local obs maybe?
I am just in on lunch here pat got 13 mins left of it
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
It's official. Snow flurries outside the window.

Are you seeing that in Savannah? So far, there are no reports of flurries at any official station but I imagine some can sneak in, given the temperature and the moisture coming in from the Atlantic.
32F now here.

Turning cloudy....


Local NOLA Disco


Rather cold day in store. Arctic airmass will firmly be entrenched
over the region and with the surface high sitting over all of the southeastern
Continental U.S.. h925 temperatures of -5 to -7 will warm to -3 to -5 and this should
only yield highs today in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Skies will
generally be mostly clear through the day and into the evening. With
highs as cold as we expect them it will give temperatures a great Jumping
Off Point to drop to freezing once again tonight but there are some
concerns with respect to the temperature forecast tonight. The main problem
tonight will be return of clouds overnight. The thinking is that
clouds will begin to return a weak disturbance approaches the region
late tonight. This will either slow down temperatures after midnight if not
possibly lead to temperatures slightly warming.


Heading into Friday we have a very tricky forecast to determine with
respect to how much precipitation we will see and precipitation type. The
short wave moving in overnight tonight will push through during the day Friday
but it will also be shearing out and thus losing steam. That said it
will lead to the middle and upper level moistening up a fair bit. The
issue is how fast can we moisten things up and given that this will
be a top down approach how fast will the ll saturate. With the ll
starting off so dry it may take till 14/15z before we see much of
anything reach the ground. As for precipitation type...it will be cold in
the ll but b/T h9 and 700 mb temperatures will likely be above freezing. Temperatures
in these levels appear to peak at around 3-4c and that would typically
lead to completely melting/all liquid. The question is can it precipitation
hard enough wetbulb...leading this warm layer cooling enough to
allow for frozen precipitation to reach the ground. Overall not very
impressed with frozen precipitation chances given the tight window that
will be in place and how dry the ll are but there is a window. From
around 11/12z through 18z northwestern portions of the County Warning Area may see a
combination of light precipitation. Will show light rain showers/zr/ip first
thing in the morning as surface temperatures will be at or below freezing but
around 15z temperatures at the ground will be above freezing yielding light
shra/ip. As we head into the afternoon both moisture and lift will wane
so we should see whatever precipitation out there coming to an end. One
other thing this short wave will bring will be a reinforcing cold front
which will push through late in the day and offshore Friday evening.


Sat should be another cold one and dry. The reinforcing cold front
will lead to morning lows similar if not a tad cooler than tonights
lows with about 2/3rds of the County Warning Area seeing freezing temperatures. As for
highs as we will struggle to mix to h925 highs and this will lead to
middle 40s to near 50s. In addition the front will help dry things out
again and with a weak middle level ridge over the region we will remain
rain free Sat. /Cab/
Quoting 109. DonnieBwkGA:

It's official. Snow flurries outside the window.




Looks like you guys got lucky with some ocean effect snow. Will be interesting to see what those showers heading to the west produce once they get on shore.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I am just in on lunch here pat got 13 mins left of it
I think there are also rules about quoting an entire article rather than providing a summary and link too.

Enjoy your lunch. How low did you get this morning?
Sar in Brunswick where the plus sign in the circle is. Just very light flurries. But so exciting!
Quoting observing:
I'm no weather expert - I live on the Central Coast of California right on the ocean bluff. What I have noticed in 2013, 2014 and now that is different than past years is 1) the lack of fog in the summer months and 2) we used to get frequent strong winds off the ocean particularly winter and spring. Conditions of late are just "dead". I lived in Southern California for two decades and the weather is much more like SoCal now. Too bad.

I'm several hundred miles north of you and I have also noticed changes in the 25 years I have been here. Like you, I have observed MUCH less fog in the summer. Used to be you were lucky if the sun came out for a few hours in the afternoon and sometimes it was foggy for WEEKS at a time.

And it used to rain a lot. Like nearly everyday Oct-April. Up here we are still getting about the same annual total, but now it comes in fewer, more intense events. No more "Seattle Sunshine" for us.

Bottom line, it used to be overcast about 70% of the time, with maybe a few weeks of clear weather in September. Last year we barely saw a cloud in January or February and this year, so far, looks to be similar.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Indeed. If 2015 is cooler than 2014--by even a thousandth of a degree--you can count on the denialosphere reverberating with shouts of "It hasn't warmed in a year! So much for global warming!"


Yes, and if 2015 was warmer than 2014--by even a thousandth of a degree-- you can count on the pro GW honks reverberating with shouts of "we're warmer so it has to a result of global warming."
TA13, interesting your bottom map shows IL had 6th coldest year, had seen a report earlier this week saying 4th, probably different data sets, but was a pretty cool summer regardless. (good for the AC bill, but most likely means a scorcher this year considering how things have been swinging lately)
#122

Difference is the Climate Scientist know their data and trends easily..

Science trumps belief every time.

As Dr.Rood explains so eloquently.

Posted by: RickyRood, 6:01 PM CST on January 01, 2015
Sunrise, Sunset / Sunrise, Sunset / Swiftly Fly the Years

Here’s an easy prediction for 2015. When we arrive at March 1, 2015, it will have been 30 years since there was a month where the global average surface temperature was below the 20th century average. We are creatures who like our milestones in years and decades and numbers divisible by 5, 10, 25 and 50 (like our currency), and a 30 year average is the definition of climate in the standard of climate as the average weather. The National Climatic Data Center goes to some effort to strictly define “normal” in terms of 30-year averages. With the arrival of March 1, 2015, all of the months used in the calculation of current climate will have been warmer than the climate of my youth, the previous generation, our grandparent’s generation, Howard Taft’s, Teddy Roosevelt’s, indeed, Benjamin Harrison’s. You might recall that in my unfashionable way, I objected to calling the 30-year average that ended in 2010 the “new” normal, because of the intuitive notion that normal is, well, what we might expect. And what we might expect is that the temperature will continue to rise, and not stay the same as the previous 30 years.

Despite it being -14 F in my backyard a couple of days ago, in the middle of January we are very likely to receive the confirmation from NOAA that 2014 was, globally, the warmest year recorded. We’ve seen this coming for a while, and it will be briefly news. NBC has already said that it is officially the warmest year on record. There’s even a video of Tom Karl, briefly dealing with the subject of last week’s blog on ocean versus atmosphere as a measure of climate.

The planet will continue to heat up for as long as anyone reading this blog will be alive. One decade following another, each one warmer than the last. While writing the blogs this year, it has become far more apparent to me the irreversible path that we are on. The heat that we are accumulating is spreading throughout the Earth. The oceans are warming and ice is melting. The heat is creeping along, and it really can’t be stopped. The rise in temperature is almost incidental to the scale of these changes in the global environment. The changes are occurring fast enough that it makes sense to use them in personal planning: where you live, where you build, how you build. You can use the information to make yourself more secure. This includes placing yourselves in positions of influence, even power, to make your communities and cities more secure.



Quoting LAbonbon:


I wonder as well. Looked for any breaking news on it, but no luck.
The word from Aviation Herald, a usually reliable source, is that it was an engine shutdown in flight. Still don't the cause of the engine shut down or if it was actually an engine out or if the engine was shut down by the pilot.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Sar in Brunswick where the plus sign in the circle is. Just very light flurries. But so exciting!
LOL. It's exciting for us in the South to see a large dandruff fall. :-) Lots of offshore clouds in the Gulf but it looks like your little blob is the only producer.
Quoting 122. jrweatherman:



Yes, and if 2015 was warmer than 2014--by even a thousandth of a degree-- you can count on the pro GW honks reverberating with shouts of "we're warmer so it has to a result of global warming."


The last coldest record year was 1909, with 2014, that makes 19 record warmest since then. Do you think this is normal? Or is it just us "honks" who don't deny science?
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1020 am EST Thu Jan 8 2015

Near term [through today]...

Brr! The 8 am EST regional surface analysis showed the freezing
line out into the Gulf coastal waters- a rare occurrence. Very
high pressure and extremely dry, cold air was settling in across
the southeast. The shallow nature of this Arctic airmass will
limit vertical mixing, so highs today (despite plenty of sunshine)
will only reach the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Quoting HouGalv08:
Unfortunately, Patrap, there's $27 trillion tied up in energy reserves in the ground that the energy producing companies are bound and determined to sell us, the earth be damned! That figure is from a pie chart Dr.Masters had on one of his posts late last year---don't have time to find the link as I'm at work right now.


Fact of the day

Dodge Charger HellCat drinks 1.5 gallons of gas per minute under full acceleration.
Car and Driver got 13 mpg in normal (combined highway and city) driving.

The Anti-Prius
Eh hem..Drum roll please...

What are frogs favorite kind of shoes?
Open toad shoes.

What is black and white and blue all over?
A zebra at the north pole

What did the gum say to the shoe?
We're stuck together forever

What do you feed a disappearing cat?
Evaporated milk.
Woo hoo! We're warming up! We just hit 32 here in Baton Rouge. It's a nice day though...blue skies, crisp and clear.
The last few times we were this cold in the south, some of you guys posted maps showing how the cold was actually pushed out from Canada/Alaska, and they were warmer than normal. I do not know where to find those maps and I missed it if it was already posted.

I mean is the always the case? Or is it sometimes cold here and there.


Quoting 12. yoboi:

Thanks for the information Mr. Henson....An El Nino can be tricky to predict....

That's a theory endorsed by Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory, 11,000 feet up on Hawaii. "It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they're going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we'll go into a permanent El Nino."

"So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we'll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you'll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years," he said.

Link


This is a 1997 article. So far it hasn't panned out.

In order to get a permanent Nino condition, the equatorial easterly trades would have to greatly weaken or disappear. I haven't heard of climate model simulations suggesting this will be a response to warming.
Is GW Honk a new term or have I just not been paying attention? I do try to keep up with the war...
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Fact of the day

Dodge Charger HellCat drinks 1.5 gallons of gas per minute under full acceleration.
Car and Driver got 13 mpg in normal (combined highway and city) driving.

The Anti-Prius
There won't be one country that does what's suggested in the study, and I suspect that parts of the study are wrong, but at least it gives us a starting point to hammer out real agreements on how we go about reducing carbon emissions. It's much better than yet another conference where everyone says soothing things and we accomplish nothing.
A good look at the snow on the ground across the Mid Atlantic, including northern Virginia and the Washington D.C. area.
Also a nice view of the mountains.

Seems the High Arctic is taking most of the causalities so far with the Avg warming twice that of those in the mid latitudes.


Quoting 45. MahFL:

Scott's not going to be a happy chappy.


No I'm fine if you go back to the last blog I said I would not be surprised to see the CPC not declare El-Nino with a ESPI of -.61 and I stated this last weekend as well but that doesn't mean we won't get one later this year as their is another warm pool heading for the W-Pac. Also the IRI models have not updated yet and don't be surprised to see more models trend toward the Euro & CFSv2.


This next Kelvin Wave is very large and is the reason why the Euro and CFS have moderate to strong El-Nino's being forecasted later this year.

What surprises me though that Dr. Bob Henson never even mentioned this in his post but Dr. Steve did this past weekend on Doc's blog.


Quoting 136. georgevandenberghe:



This is a 1997 article. So far it hasn't panned out.

In order to get a permanent Nino condition, the equatorial easterly trades would have to greatly weaken or disappear. I haven't heard of climate model simulations suggesting this will be a response to warming.


We actually e-mailed Dr. Schnell and posted, with permission, his statement of clarification on the quoted piece for Yoboi over on Dr. Rood's blog. He is being dishonest in his query, he full well knows what Dr. Schnell had to say regarding the quote and "prediction".
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


This is a 1997 article. So far it hasn't panned out.

In order to get a permanent Nino condition, the equatorial easterly trades would have to greatly weaken or disappear. I haven't heard of climate model simulations suggesting this will be a response to warming.
He or she has posted links to that article here before. He or she has been told it was one scientist doing some outside the box speculating. He or she has been told there's not one study that has ever suggested a permanent El Nino. He or she really doesn't care - it's just more haze to add to the atmosphere.
Cold comfort: US weather in 2014 not too hot, disastrous
By BY SETH BORENSTEIN, The Associated Press
Published: January 8, 2015, 11:04 am


WASHINGTON (AP) — On a day when much of the U.S. struggled with bone-chilling cold, federal meteorologists said America’s weather in 2014 wasn’t really that bad.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that the U.S. average temperature in 2014 was half a degree warmer than normal and weather was less disastrous and drought-struck than previous years. While 2014 was warmer than 2013 in the lower 48 states, it was still only the 34th warmest on record.

That contrasts with the experience of the world as a whole. Globally, it will likely go down as the warmest year on record.

Japan’s meteorological agency has already calculated 2014 as the warmest year worldwide. NOAA and NASA will announce global 2014 figures next week, but data through November point toward a new record. The U.S. is only 2 percent of the world’s surface and temperatures are more dictated by weather than climate, said Pennsylvania State University atmospheric scientist Michael Mann.

American temperatures were divided by the Mississippi River. California, Nevada and Arizona had the hottest year in 120 years of record-keeping, while Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah and New Mexico had one of their five warmest years on record.

Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Wisconsin and Michigan had one of their 10 coldest years on record.

“It was a strange year for the U.S.,” said University of Illinois climate scientist Donald Wuebbles. “The extreme warmth and droughts in the western U.S. and the extreme cold winter and cooler summer in the East and Midwest were largely driven by blocking patterns at high latitudes in the Arctic.”

Wuebbles said those blocking patterns meant warmer Alaskan temperatures and cold invasions south— like last January’s (and probably this week’s) deep chill.

It was the 18th straight year the U.S. was warmer than the 20th-century average.

Last year there were eight weather disasters that caused more than $1 billion in damage, according to NOAA. The last five years that averaged 10 such billion-dollar disasters.

Munich Re, an international insurance giant, calculated that natural disasters — including earthquakes — caused $15.3 billion in U.S. insured losses in 2014, down from the average of $29 billion from 2000 to 2013.

The area of the U.S. struck by drought shrank 2 percent from 2013, yet California’s historic drought continues, NOAA said.

___
Plus, there is a reduction of sub-surface heat across the equatorial Pacific (fig. 2; see an animated progression here), meaning that there is a diminishing supply of heat that could recharge surface temperatures.


the above is from NOAA's ENSO blog
CPC came out with their forecast (which I agree with) but didn't update their climate models as they are still stuck on the mid December update. As i said this past weekend that we would likely have to wait until later this year to get El-Nino.

Quoting 147. ricderr:




Look at what is going on toward 140E.
I think the whole El Nino thing is a Hoax myself.

: P
Quoting 144. sar2401:

He or she has posted links to that article here before. He or she has been told it was one scientist doing some outside the box speculating. He or she has been told there's not one study that has ever suggested a permanent El Nino. He or she really doesn't care - it's just more haze to add to the atmosphere.

The part about the skeletons in the Incan temple and the possible relation to El Nino was pretty interesting. I would have said that part was 'cool', but since they were discussing human sacrifices that didn't seem quite right :/
Look at what is going on toward 140E.

indeed scott...and i hope you remember...that at this time last year...we were also looking at am impressive wave in the same area...much more impressive than what we see now....and that did not fare well as it's timing arrived in the 3/4 area as the waters were warming with spring....i believe last years wave was compared to that of 97-98....except a major difference was in it's arrival time in the 3.4 quadrant....i believe this to do the same...now if we look at what the actual temp is...not the present anomaly...and compare it to what the average SST of the 3.4 region is during spring and summer....then i don't think you would be as impressed
Quoting DFWdad:
The last few times we were this cold in the south, some of you guys posted maps showing how the cold was actually pushed out from Canada/Alaska, and they were warmer than normal. I do not know where to find those maps and I missed it if it was already posted.

I mean is the always the case? Or is it sometimes cold here and there.


Not sure which map you saw but this one shows the temperatures for all of North America. The cold air outbreak came from northern Canada, as it always does during the winter. You can see how the cold wave gets down in the US because it's riding a bend in the jet stream.




You can see the jet stream path clearly on the water vapor image -



This is actually a much more normal pattern than what we saw last winter. Then we had the normal Arctic low pressure, along with it's cold air, being pushed far to the south of its usual position. Now we have this bend in the jet stream that's opened a path for the cold air in Canada to invade the US but this time as a result of high pressure. That's one of the reasons why this has been mostly just a cold air outbreak rather than a large winter storm. As the cold air is carried over the eastern US by the high pressure from Canada, warm air is being drawn north by yet another high over the Pacific NW. By this time next week, that bend in the jet stream will be gone, and highs and lows will be traveling basically west to east, called a zonal flow. That means temperatures get back to normal or even a bit above for us in the South and the East, while still cold, will just be normal winter cold, not the bitter cold we have now. What we're seeing now is the normal winter cycle of zonal flow with breaks in the flow caused by these bends in the jet stream. When that happens, almost everywhere from northern Canada to the Deep South gets much colder than normal. I hope I haven't confused you even further. :-)

Why are some post disappearing?.I refresh the page and a random number of post are missing.What's up with that?
Quoting LAbonbon:

The part about the skeletons in the Incan temple and the possible relation to El Nino was pretty interesting. I would have said that part was 'cool', but since they were discussing human sacrifices that didn't seem quite right :/
Once you mix archaeology, a scientist rambling in a newspaper article, human sacrifices, and El Nino, the results are almost never good. ;-)
Wintry precip trying to make it onshore for coastal GA down to JAX. Areas further south may see this fall as a cold rain with temps being reported in the low 40s and up.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

FLZ025-082300-
DUVAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JACKSONVILLE
215 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF DUVAL COUNTY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...WITH NO IMPACT ON TRAVEL.

$$
Quoting 156. Drakoen:

Wintry precip trying to make it onshore for coastal GA down to JAX. Areas further south may see this fall as a cold rain with temps being reported in the low 40s and up.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

FLZ025-082300-
DUVAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JACKSONVILLE
215 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF DUVAL COUNTY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED...WITH NO IMPACT ON TRAVEL.

$$


Quoting 154. washingtonian115:

Why are some post disappearing?.I refresh the page and a random number of post are missing.What's up with that?


It's Johnny Fever's phone police...
Radar showing the rain/snow line at the Florida/Georgia border. Looks about right judging from surface temps.
Quoting 154. washingtonian115:

Why are some post disappearing?.I refresh the page and a random number of post are missing.What's up with that?


Check your filter, did it get changed...
DOOM!!! :D

Happy New Years everybody! I hope you all had a safe and wunderful holidays.

Let's see if I still know how to post in here :P



01/08/2015 0209 PM

1 miles ENE of Jacksonville, Duval County.

Snow m0.0 inch, reported by ASOS.

The official NWS ASOS is recording light snow.

01/08/2015 0230 PM

3 miles W of Arlington, Duval County.

Snow e0.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.

A storm spotter reported light to moderate snow flurries mixed with light rain and sleet for 45 minutes in downtown Jacksonville. There was no accumulation of snow or ice.

163. yoboi
Quoting 136. georgevandenberghe:



This is a 1997 article. So far it hasn't panned out.

In order to get a permanent Nino condition, the equatorial easterly trades would have to greatly weaken or disappear. I haven't heard of climate model simulations suggesting this will be a response to warming.


I put it in the same file as the Arctic will be ice free by 2014.....put snow in your freezer it will be a thing of the past....After 2005 Majors/hurricanes hitting the USA will be the new norm.....I have noticed a new trend continually posting about the California drought.....Grasping....No???
forecasted chill 4 pm est

snow on the way for lower lakes

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
DOOM!!! :D

Happy New Years everybody! I hope you all had a safe and wunderful holidays.

Let's see if I still know how to post in here :P



01/08/2015 0209 PM

1 miles ENE of Jacksonville, Duval County.

Snow m0.0 inch, reported by ASOS.

The official NWS ASOS is recording light snow.

01/08/2015 0230 PM

3 miles W of Arlington, Duval County.

Snow e0.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.

A storm spotter reported light to moderate snow flurries mixed with light rain and sleet for 45 minutes in downtown Jacksonville. There was no accumulation of snow or ice.

Good to see you again. It looks like you've posted a picture of the country's smallest winter storm. :-) Nothing happening over Alabama way although it's 42 degrees now, much higher than the forecast high, as the wind switches to the south and some of the cold air is getting scoured out.
Lake-effect snow in Kastamonu, a town founded in the 18th century BC (German Wiki: oldest findings date back to the 13th century BC), near the northern coast of Turkey:



In this case "lake" means the Black Sea. SevereWeatherEurope got a nice graphic to explain:


Click to enlarge.


The bigger picture.
Quoting yoboi:


I put it in the same file as the Arctic will be ice free by 2014.....put snow in your freezer it will be a thing of the past....After 2005 Majors/hurricanes hitting the USA will be the new norm.....I have noticed a new trend continually posting about the California drought.....Grasping....No???
What I've noticed is the bigger fib you're telling, the more "????" and "!!!!" and "...." you put with it. It's a dead giveaway every time.
Quoting 168. sar2401:

What I've noticed is the bigger fib you're telling, the more "????" and "!!!!" and "...." you put with it. It's a dead giveaway every time.


I love how 2017 Plus/minus 3 years turns into 2014 for the sake of propaganda.
Quoting 163. yoboi:



I put it in the same file as the Arctic will be ice free by 2014.....put snow in your freezer it will be a thing of the past....After 2005 Majors/hurricanes hitting the USA will be the new norm.....I have noticed a new trend continually posting about the California drought.....Grasping....No???
no arctic will be 90 percent ice free by sept 2015 at the height of the 2015 melt season or close to it
GEM still has an Ice Storm Monday.

Temperature change over past 11,300 years (in blue, via Science, 2013) plus projected warming this century on humanity’s current emissions path (in red, via recent literature).

"George Will Gets It Exactly Backward On Climate Change"

Will’s piece discusses two books on the more recent record. One is “Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century,” which focuses on the century that “included the Little Ice Age (LIA), between the 1640s and the 1690s.” The other is “The Third Horseman: Climate Change and the Great Famine of the 14th Century,” which examines “the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), from the end of the ninth century to the beginning of the 14th, the Northern Hemisphere was warmer than at any time in the past 8,000 years — for reasons concerning which there is no consensus,” or at least this is what Will asserts.

Secondary low "Elon" on its way to the British Isles (saved gif animation, Source).


Strongest winds tomorrow morning in and around Scotland. But this is only the first hit in a row to follow.

Even at my place in central Germany I already noticed a soft little howling around my house this evening.


Updating loop.

Storms approach UK
BBC weather video, 8 January 2015 Last updated at 15:39
A powerful jet stream is pushing a deep area of low pressure towards the UK. But why is the jet stream so strong? BBC Weather's Chris Fawkes explains.


Have a good night over there. And yeah, some snowflakes in Florida - this would be something, no? :-) Hope to get the news tomorrow ...
Quoting 163. yoboi:



I put it in the same file as the Arctic will be ice free by 2014.....put snow in your freezer it will be a thing of the past....After 2005 Majors/hurricanes hitting the USA will be the new norm.....I have noticed a new trend continually posting about the California drought.....Grasping....No???


You're all over it Yobi!


snow!!!
Quoting 163. yoboi:



I put it in the same file as the Arctic will be ice free by 2014.....put snow in your freezer it will be a thing of the past....After 2005 Majors/hurricanes hitting the USA will be the new norm.....I have noticed a new trend continually posting about the California drought.....Grasping....No???

Sounds like you've been listening to some pretty unreliable sources, unless, of course, you could give a link showing someone credible such as NOAA predicting what you listed in your post. As I've said before, the IPCC might be a good place to start for climate information.
Quoting 171. Climate175:

GEM still has an Ice Storm Monday.
I hope this changes to snow when we get closer to the events.
Quoting 174. jrweatherman:



You're all over it Yobi!


Cute, so which part of the science do you not agree with.

Is it that CO2 is a greenhouse gas? Is it that there is an measured energy imbalance between incoming and outgoing radiation? Is it that the measured imbalance is at the absorption spectrum of CO2 and other greenhouse gases? Is it that we know the current CO2 comes from fossil fuel burning by its isotope signature and by the corresponding decrease in O2 from combustion? That all these concepts come from very basic chemistry and physics? Or maybe you just disagree with 200 years of interdisciplinary scientific progress?
I made it to a whopping 29F (record) this afternoon after a morning low of 14F (record). Looks like another night in the teens before highs rebound into the 40s tomorrow.
The second storm is a more interesting storm in that southern moisture will run along another arctic boundary which will force cold air back in later next week. A system moving out of western Canada may drop south phasing with southern jet stream energy producing a coastal storm

Link
I went to the link and read some of the information. Most interesting history of CO2. I will have to go back and read more because it's not clear to me whether CO2 is the cause or merely a marker of climate change. The facts do not appear to be "cherry-picked" which, as a tech writer, I can usually sense. The linked article and other information on that website are quite worth going back to for information.

For the moment, I remain neutral on the topic, and this stems from not having enough time to ferret out the facts for myself. Oh, I know that the climate is much different (warmer generally) than it was in my youth. So, thank you for posting the link. Perhaps I can find more info in my alleged spare time.
Quoting 180. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I made it to a whopping 29F (record) this afternoon after a morning low of 14F (record). Looks like another night in the teens before highs rebound into the 40s tomorrow.


What's the coldest high you can remember there?
Quoting 183. DonnieBwkGA:



What's the coldest high you can remember there?

28F last January 29. There was an inch of sleet on the ground to keep things cold then.
Quoting 160. PedleyCA:



Check your filter, did it get changed...


I changed mine.



Snowfall Forecast
Forecast snowfall through early Friday evening from all sources
KJAX 081956Z 01013KT 8SM -SN BKN022 BKN045 OVC200 03/M02 A3045 RMK AO2 SNB09 SLP312 P0000 T00331017
Rare flurries in Jacksonville, FL- a few about a coupla miles south of I-10.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
158 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...HARD FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.CALM WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND COLD DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOWS REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 20S BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009>011-016-GAZ120>131-142>145- 155>157-091400-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HZ.W.0002.150109T0000Z-150109T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON-GADSDEN-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TER RELL-DOUGHERTY-
LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-
SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...K INSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...QUINCY. ..
CHATTAHOOCHEE...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...
ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...AL BANY...
LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIF TON...
FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...CO LQUITT...
NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...DONALSONVILLE...BAINB RIDGE...CAIRO
158 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015 /1258 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015/

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ FRIDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS 22 TO 25 DEGREES.

* DURATION......12 TO 15 HOURS OF SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS CAN DAMAGE CROPS AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

FOURNIER
We have been following that 1997-1998 or generally El Nino pattern a bit, like seen in 1982-1983, a few times in the 60s, etc.. It's muffled & some different with the different ways those Kelvin waves dissipated than in the past. For FL we might be in the wet, stormy winter before the early hot spring & summer, with no rain. Traditionally some part of FL burns the second year of an El Nino cycle. This one has been weak. Didn't really float west well in the water but that heat went somewhere. That was a super strong Kelvin wave and certain aspects has responded like rough hurricane numbers per basin. At first thought I want to say Ft Meyers area, SWFL (they are pretty behind on rain already)..total doom, you'll be burning down this summer (sorry). If I get a chance I'll have to look at this closer & really decide if that's the way it might go & write a blog about it..
Have lived in Florida all my life, usually travel by plane or car during summer vacation up the Eastern Seaboard (don't like to fly in the Winter), and have been to Europe and Central America in the summer. I have never seen snow and have been waiting for a good flurry in Tallahassee for 14 years now. Had my best chance in Gatlinburg, TN for Christmas Vacation around 1997 but it stopped snowing the day we arrived and started again the day after we left after New Years (slush on the ground). Also, have wanted to drive north from Tally into GA when some snow has fallen an hour or two up from us but too afraid to slide around not being used to drive in that weather.

My daughter just finished her college stint in New Haven last May (lots of snow the last 4 years up there) but she always flew down to Florida to get away from it for Christmas Break........................................Some Day (Dreaming of a White Christmas).
Quoting 192. Skyepony:

We have been following that 1997-1998 or generally El Nino pattern a bit, like seen in 1982-1983, a few times in the 60s, etc.. It's muffled & some different with the different ways those Kelvin waves dissipated than in the past. For FL we might be in the wet, stormy winter before the early hot spring & summer, with no rain. Traditionally some part of FL burns the second year of an El Nino cycle. This one has been weak. Didn't really float west well in the water but that heat went somewhere. That was a super strong Kelvin wave and certain aspects has responded like rough hurricane numbers per basin. At first thought I want to say Ft Meyers area, SWFL (they are pretty behind on rain already)..total doom, you'll be burning down this summer (sorry). If I get a chance I'll have to look at this closer & really decide if that's the way it might go & write a blog about it..


If there's one thing I think we've all learned recently, forecasting an El Nino seems to be a crapshoot. So, to say Ft. Myers will "burn down this summer" and is facing "total doom", seems just slightly premature.
Mr. Henson gives an incomplete definition of el nino conditions. He states:

"NOAA considers El Niño conditions to be in place when monthly sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are at least 0.5°C above average in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific."

According to the CPC:

"CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months."

Hence there are three components to the criteria for el nino conditions.
1. sea surface temps
2. atmospheric conditions
3. expected persistence

Everybody just focuses on SST's. It gets old!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made it to a whopping 29F (record) this afternoon after a morning low of 14F (record). Looks like another night in the teens before highs rebound into the 40s tomorrow.
Beat you on the low. We got to 13, but also made it up to 44 this afternoon. I ad to really check the temperature when I came back in from some outdoor work. It felt much colder than the actual temperature even though the windchill was never lower than 35 or so. I think it's a combination of the wind (still blowing at 10 mph sustained with 17 mph gusts) and the dewpoint of 6 degrees. I have a couple of watering cans about half full of water that were in the sun and they still have about half an inch of ice on the top.
My sister lives in Rapid City. I guess the Chinook winds came last night. Was only 1 degree warmer here in Tampa than it was up there this a.m. Now it's 14 and blizzard conditions. Chinook winds are fascinating. Can you imagine going from -4 to 45 in TWO MINUTES? That actually happened. Crazy. Link
Quoting tampabaymatt:


If there's one thing I think we've all learned recently, forecasting an El Nino seems to be a crapshoot. So, to say Ft. Myers will "burn down this summer" and is facing "total doom", seems just slightly premature.


It will be interesting to see if we (Fort Myers) get some rain out of this next system. NWS gives us a 40% chance of rain on Monday. We'll see.

43 days with only .05" of precipitation.
The Wife on the other hand lived in Detroit as a kid for a few years and a few other places (Air Force Brat), went to college in Mass (lots of snow storms), and visited our kid in CT two years ago in Jan and got snowed in for 4 days. She says the snow is pretty at first, then a nightmare as it plies up and that I am not missing much.........
Quoting aquak9:
Rare flurries in Jacksonville, FL- a few about a coupla miles south of I-10.
Good for Jacksonville. It looked like there were flurries from JAX all the way up the Georgia coast. I was hoping for a few flakes here but just too dry, even with the southerly winds. Of course, the end of January last year produced our 3 inch ice and snowstorm, so maybe hoping for snow in January isn't such a good idea.

snow in the northeast by morning
Quoting 198. Sfloridacat5:



It will be interesting to see if we (Fort Myers) get some rain out of this next system. NWS gives us a 40% chance of rain on Monday. We'll see.

43 days with only .05" of precipitation.


To me, it seems like an exercise in futility to try to forecast summer rainfall patterns in FL. There will always be convective rains in the summer in FL, which can be completely random. Even last summer when we had an onshore Gulf wind for practically the entire rainy season (which favors rain on the east coast), Tampa still saw plenty of rain except for during the month of June.
Quoting 200. sar2401:

Good for Jacksonville. It looked like there were flurries from JAX all the way up the Georgia coast. I was hoping for a few flakes here but just too dry, even with the southerly winds. Of course, the end of January last year produced our 3 inch ice and snowstorm, so maybe hoping for snow in January isn't such a good idea.
so ya want snow down there huh I will see what I can do
Record Report
Statement as of 03:35 PM CST on January 08, 2015
...Record low temperature set at Baton Rouge ASOS...

a record low temperature of 20 degrees was set at Baton Rouge ASOS today. This ties the old record of 20 set in 2014.



35F currently here Uptown,NOLA in classic wu view'
Been holding there now as we continue to cloud up as dusk approaches.


cold monday with snow and ice in the northeast on monday


watching the Northeast US Doppler Radar tonight
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The Wife on the other hand lived in Detroit as a kid for a few years and a few other places (Air Force Brat), went to college in Mass (lots of snow storms), and visited our kid in CT two years ago in Jan and got snowed in for 4 days. She says the snow is pretty at first, then a nightmare as it plies up and that I am not missing much.........
Your wife is right. I grew up in Cleveland, where the winter weather is even worse. The first snow of the season was always beautiful. Even storms two through five weren't bad. When it got to Easter and it was still snowing, that's when I got to hate the stuff. I see about as much as I ever want to see again down here in Alabama now and, if we get a repeat of last winter, that's going to be too much.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so ya want snow down there huh I will see what I can do
No, no, I said I was rethinking that plan even before I finished the post. I know how it goes when you "send" people things too. Just post the pictures from your rooftop webcam. That's as close as I want to get.
Quoting 194. tampabaymatt:



If there's one thing I think we've all learned recently, forecasting an El Nino seems to be a crapshoot. So, to say Ft. Myers will "burn down this summer" and is facing "total doom", seems just slightly premature.

I've done pretty well in forecasting ENSO. It was hard not giving a chance of a significant El Nino looking at that one Kelvin wave coming on. Yeah, something changed..we haven't seen that sort of strength of Kelvin wave without a wow event since satellites started launching, that's why it is such an interesting topic at the AMS meeting. But even now, I said put a fork in it weeks ago... ESPI is -0.62, crazy another Kelvin wave is a ways off too..

Much of that I said about this summer is wild speculation based on weather patterns of similiar years climatically and total first gut reaction, no need to make it into any more than that. Looking at the fire map, more is on fire in West Central FL then SWL at the moment. The whole thought seems worth looking into was all.
Quoting 202. tampabaymatt:



To me, it seems like an exercise in futility to try to forecast summer rainfall patterns in FL. There will always be convective rains in the summer in FL, which can be completely random. Even last summer when we had an onshore Gulf wind for practically the entire rainy season (which favors rain on the east coast), Tampa still saw plenty of rain except for during the month of June.

Did you live in FL in 1998? or 1983? What year was that, when NEFL burned? I only remember the years it was here..
Made it to 18 in S C IL as forecast, radar shows snow, but nothing making it to ground here. Pressure continues to drop, almost to 30" now, dew pts and w.c.'s have lost their negative signs for now. S winds still relatively stiff though. Updated forecast for tomorrow barely has us touching double digits now, even though sunny, so I guess we'll be getting N winds again.
Quoting 212. Skyepony:


Did you live in FL in 1998? or 1983?


Yes, both years. But, I was only 2 years old in 1983 :)
I think it was '98 when N Fla burnt down, Skye...

I remember US17 being shut down, and I was working in Palatka. I got outta there about thirty minutes before they shut it down.
Quoting 214. tampabaymatt:



Yes, both years. But, I was only 2 years old in 1983 :)

Both those years it burned here that I lived thru (I heard stories about all that in the 60s.. from parents), the relentless heat & dry came from the west, all the smoke went east. We choked.. Couldn't have been so bad over there in Tampa. I really need to pour over the whole FL fire history. See if we've really even had those burn events in SWFL. Get back to y'all on it..
Quoting 213. dabirds:

Made it to 18 in S C IL as forecast, radar shows snow, but nothing making it to ground here. Pressure continues to drop, almost to 30" now, dew pts and w.c.'s have lost their negative signs for now. S winds still relatively stiff though. Updated forecast for tomorrow barely has us touching double digits now, even though sunny, so I guess we'll be getting N winds again.


all up in the clouds
there is a secondary impulse of cold air sweeping in
on the heels of yet another cold front
last one I think then at rebound towards milder conditions
more near freezing point
with a stormy period possible up over the spine of the apps
Quoting 215. aquak9:

I think it was '98 when N Fla burnt down, Skye...

I remember US17 being shut down, and I was working in Palatka. I got outta there about thirty minutes before they shut it down.

Central FL & some of NEFL and other parts of FL burnt down in 1998..when we told the tourist to leave. It was really bad.. Volusia County (home of Daytona Beach) was evacuated. It was scary here. Tolls were suspended to Orlando even. It was a year since then, maybe after we started blogging here, maybe a weaker El Nino when much of I-95 burnt up your way but not so bad between here and Orlando?
Quoting 216. Skyepony:


Both those years it burned here that I lived thru (I heard stories about all that in the 60s.. from parents), the relentless heat & dry came from the west, all the smoke went east. We choked.. Couldn't have been so bad over there in Tampa. I really need to pour over the whole FL fire history. See if we've really even had those burn events in SWFL. Get back to y'all on it..


Hey skyepony, tru dat'

Even here when the Marsh along the S. Shore gets to Burning and we have a east wind, with fog and low temps it can really reduce the visibilty along I-10 heading east outta NOLA toward Slidell near Irish Bayou and such.





looks like maybe 5 cm we get outta this cold finer snow takes a while to reach surface gives less accumulation if it was more warmer nearer to freeze point this could of been a heavy snow quick cold shot then moderating temps once this moves on by
Quoting 190. aquak9:

Rare flurries in Jacksonville, FL- a few about a coupla miles south of I-10.

Tracking flurries across NE Florida, SE Georgia



Photo from Dee Registre
Snowing on the campus of Edward Waters College
Britain braced for winds and snow?

Then you read on in the link!

Link

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/britain-bra ced-for-winds-and-snow/ar-AA7UkvU?ocid=DELLDHP

Until you get to this bit:-
"But despite the storms, temperatures will be "exceptionally mild for that time of year" - widely hovering at 14C to 15C."

Oh well, I suppose it will all make sense to somebody.

8/C at midnight here and 20/C in the days in southern Spain.
Que Sera Sera.

221. GTstormChaserCaleb
10:48 PM GMT on January 08, 2015






0

+









Quoting 190. aquak9:

Rare flurries in Jacksonville, FL- a few about a coupla miles south of I-10.


Tracking flurries across NE Florida, SE Georgia



Photo from Dee Registre
Snowing on the campus of Edward Waters College



people were ok this is weird I am in fla right
Quoting 222. PlazaRed:

Britain braced for winds and snow?

Then you read on in the link!

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/britain-bra ced-for-winds-and-snow/ar-AA7UkvU?ocid=DELLDHP

Until you get to this bit:-
"But despite the storms, temperatures will be "exceptionally mild for that time of year" - widely hovering at 14C to 15C."

Oh well, I suppose it will all make sense to somebody.

8/C at midnight here and 20/C in the days in southern Spain.
Que Sera Sera.
yes the process has begun the changes are taking place
225. bwi
Looks like the big models backed off on the idea of a coastal low that could affect DC and NYC mid or late next week. Oh well, wait and see.

But when GFS and EC move in tandem, I figure they're probably sniffing the same patterns and each day brings better pattern input to those week-out forecasts. We should have a pretty good idea by Saturday yes or no, but it's looking like no right now it seems.
Quoting 219. Patrap:



Hey skyepony, tru dat'

Even here when the Marsh along the S. Shore gets to Burning and we have a east wind, with fog and low temps it can really reduce the visibilty along I-10 heading east outta NOLA toward Slidell near Irish Bayou and such.


Similar here...Swamp smoke + fog is considered smocky here & quite dangerous on I-95..
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-071-072-091000-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...
PONCHATOULA
412 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...LIGHT MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY MORNING PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BAYOU
SORREL TO PRAIRIEVILLE TO BOGALUSA. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. EVEN IF ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
DOES OCCUR...THERE IS NO ACCUMULATION OF ICE CURRENTLY FORECAST
AND IMPACTS...IF ANY...SHOULD BE MINIMAL. IF ACCUMULATION OF ICE
BECOMES MORE LIKELY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
Quoting 224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes the process has begun the changes are taking place

All down to the way they want us and you to interpret it!

It rained here about 5 weeks ago, then again, it is winter and its supposed to rain.
I've got wasps and big fly's which we call blue bottles flying around in the days.
I've never in 24 years seen wasps in January before and fly's are rare.

Might be another drought year at this rate. No winds and a lot of morning fogs due to the high pressures.
28/37 with an atypical diurnal curve and very light snow flurries from late morning through mid afternoon. Several degrees colder on St. Simons throughout the day. Unusual.

With a dew point of 22 any of the heavier rain working in this direction could turn to freezing rain or sleet.

Pressure rose to 30.61" today which is the highest I recall since I moved here in 2010.
Quoting 222. PlazaRed:

Britain braced for winds and snow?

Then you read on in the link!

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/britain-bra ced-for-winds-and-snow/ar-AA7UkvU?ocid=DELLDHP

Until you get to this bit:-
"But despite the storms, temperatures will be "exceptionally mild for that time of year" - widely hovering at 14C to 15C."

Oh well, I suppose it will all make sense to somebody.

8/C at midnight here and 20/C in the days in southern Spain.
Que Sera Sera.
Quoting 225. bwi:

Looks like the big models backed off on the idea of a coastal low that could affect DC and NYC mid or late next week. Oh well, wait and see.

But when GFS and EC move in tandem, I figure they're probably sniffing the same patterns and each day brings better pattern input to those week-out forecasts. We should have a pretty good idea by Saturday yes or no, but it's looking like no right now it seems.

there is something showing western gulf/texas coastal at the end of run at hr 60 here
this might be something later
have to see how it goes
lots of cold
going to take lots of energy
to move it around





Quoting 163. yoboi:



I put it in the same file as the Arctic will be ice free by 2014.....put snow in your freezer it will be a thing of the past....After 2005 Majors/hurricanes hitting the USA will be the new norm.....I have noticed a new trend continually posting about the California drought.....Grasping....No???
Quoting 177. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sounds like you've been listening to some pretty unreliable sources, unless, of course, you could give a link showing someone credible such as NOAA predicting what you listed in your post. As I've said before, the IPCC might be a good place to start for climate information.

Beuller...?
Looks like that clipper is a little further south than anticipated...
Quoting 233. washingtonian115:

Looks like that clipper is a little further south than anticipated...
our local forecast calls for 5 cm max out of it so depending if it pickups remains the same or weakens will determine what u will get lets say 2 too 3 inches for u I think and right around 8am in the morning it will start
looks like its sorta tilting a bit more eastward so you just may get a sweeping glance and get nothing
The tail of the clipper is a bit long.
Quoting 180. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I made it to a whopping 29F (record) this afternoon after a morning low of 14F (record). Looks like another night in the teens before highs rebound into the 40s tomorrow.

I made it to a whopping 34F (not a record) this afternoon after a morning low of 21F (not a record). Looks like another night in the twenties before highs don't rebound into the 40's tomorrow. :)

Latest NWS Forecast for my area. Looks like a whole lot of fun around here for the next couple of days.



rainning in anchorge!!
Satellite Picture Shows Snow-covered U.S. Deep Freeze
NOAA's GOES-East satellite provided a look at the frigid eastern two-thirds of the U.S. on Jan. 7, 2015, that shows a blanket of northern snow, lake-effect snow from the Great Lakes and clouds behind the Arctic cold front.

A visible picture captured at 11 a.m. EST showed the effects of the latest Arctic outbreak. The cold front that brought the Arctic air moved as far south as Florida, and stretched back over the Gulf of Mexico and just west of Texas. The image shows clouds behind the frontal boundary stretching from the Carolinas west over the Heartland. Farther north, a wide band of fallen snow covers the ground from New England west to Montana, with rivers appearing like veins. The GOES-East satellite image also shows wind-whipped lake-effect snows off the Great Lakes, blowing to the southeast. Meanwhile, Florida, the nation's warm spot appeared almost cloud-free.
Image Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Larger image


Quoting 208. hurricanes2018:



watching the Northeast US Doppler Radar tonight
light snow will be in detroit soon!!

Quoting 237. Climate175:

The tail of the clipper is a bit long.
And extends further south that most models... the GFS and ECMWF at least ;)
Quoting 238. TylerStanfield:


I made it to a whopping 34F (not a record) this afternoon after a morning low of 21F (not a record). Looks like another night in the twenties before highs don't rebound into the 40's tomorrow. :)

Latest NWS Forecast for my area. Looks like a whole lot of fun around here for the next couple of days.




I always like to read what you analize about different things and I would want to know what is your take on the El Limbo ENSO?
Quoting 235. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

our local forecast calls for 5 cm max out of it so depending if it pickups remains the same or weakens will determine what u will get lets say 2 too 3 inches for u I think and right around 8am in the morning it will start
Lol.No one wants a repeat of Tuesday XD.

. Tornado6042008X
What does the rest of the run look like?
Quoting 244. Tornado6042008X:


And extends further south that most models... the GFS and ECMWF at least ;)

Yep.
Saturday morning still looks cool enough to wear some kind of jacket or sweater.
Quoting 247. Climate175:

Yep.
You just beat me to it. I was about to post the exact same comparison.
Quoting 253. Tornado6042008X:

You just beat me to it. I was about to post the exact same comparison.
Great Minds Think Alike!
Quoting 251. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The models have already failed in terms of track with this system in the mid west.
Quoting 257. Skyepony:


Looks like that models get the idea.
Quoting 256. washingtonian115:

The models have already failed in terms of track with this system in the mid west.
I know just showing what they are sayin and what we are currently seeing
Quoting 246. washingtonian115:

Lol.No one wants a repeat of Tuesday XD.

. Tornado6042008X
What does the rest of the run look like?
The next interesting part of the run shows the storm next week off shore.
Last time I saw a low ceiling and these temps,well..its really looking like it wants to Sneaux here tonight.
260. Tornado6042008X
We know a storm will be in the area around that time.We still have a week before the track and what type of precipitation we get from that one is yet to be determined.Hopefully not another rain storm.
With the recent cold air blast which kicked off last night sent our temps down here in Baldwin County, Alabama plummeting all the way from 16 near Bay Minette to 19 at Gulf Shores. The predicted daytime high for us was about 41, but we only reached 32, and because of the influence of warm moist air coming off the Gulf of Mexico, (Even though the temperature difference may only be 5-10 degrees it still makes a difference.) It has created the same situation as Lake effect snow, but of course there is one key ingredient necessary for snow that there isn't near enough of aka Moisture in the atmosphere. Basically Gulf effect snow storm without any type of precipitation. Because of this most of south Baldwin and Mobile counties has a layer of clouds which is slowly creeping north. pretty interesting site to see, wish i could share a picture but its too dark to get a good view of it.
Quoting 253. Tornado6042008X:

You just beat me to it. I was about to post the exact same comparison.


It looks like dry air is eating away at the southern end of the system. I'll end up get shafted as usual.


264. Drakoen
Why are you trying to ruin our wish casting? lol.

Quoting 262. washingtonian115:

260. Tornado6042008X
We know a storm will be in the area around that time.We still have a week before the track and what type of precipitation we get from that one is yet to be determined.Hopefully not another rain storm.
Yeap. The 12z ECMWF still shows that system mid/late next week bringing us some snow.
Quoting 266. Tornado6042008X:


Yeap. The 12z ECMWF still shows that system mid/late next week bringing us some snow.

GEM too.
Quoting 265. washingtonian115:



264. Drakoen
Why are you trying to ruin our wish casting? lol.
18z NAM SIMRAD for tonight, credit to Pcroton for getting this.
The GFS model shows some possible sleet mixed with light rain tomorrow across the central Gulf Coast, usually I wouldn't think much of it considering the dry air that is in place now, but after watching the local forecast for tomorrow they have a 20% chance of light rain and possible sleet showers tomorrow, I'm kinda skeptical but I guess we will see if it all unfolds.
CapitalWeatherGang

12z Euro tries throwing down 4 or 5 inches of snow over DC metro for Thursday the 15th. We'll see if the GFS suite starts to move toward the Euro as it tends to do inside of D 5.

It's a positive, but no sense in getting caught up in totals at this point. The trend is the most important thing at D 7, and it is colder and snowier.
Hopping shortly in once again as I just saw new very bullish warnings from "Estofex" concerning "Elon" (although they are not in charge of general wind warnings but only of warnings of convective events like thunderstorms, tornadoes, downbursts ...) :



Estofex Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 09 Jan 2015 06:00 to Sat 10 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Thu 08 Jan 2015 21:25, Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for parts of Denmark and far N-Germany mainly for very severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for parts of the North Sea, Denmark, N/NTRL Germany and parts of Poland mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat.
SYNOPSIS
A mature extratropcial cyclone just NE of Scotland features all characteristics of a well developed warm seclusion. The occlusion continues to wrap around its center with a potential sting jet in full progress along its S/SE-ern fringe. Latest forecast soundings place 95 kt winds just shy above sea level in a well mixed air mass, so expect similar gusts over N/NE Scotland during the start of this forecast. This will be a life-threatening and very dangerous situation! Be aware of the fact that our level scheme does not capture non-convective wind gusts.
Later on this depression fills rapidly during its SE-ward motion and the gradient flow weakens. Still very strong winds spread SE-wards towards Denmark, N/CNTRL Germany and Poland. The trough approaches the Ukraine during the end of the forecast. ...
Another intense extratropical cyclone develops west of Ireland during the end of the forecast and races east. Strongest winds remain confined to the warm sector which should keep most intense winds off the surface over Irleand, UK and Scotland. Nevertheless another strong wind event seems to unfold for those regions during the overnight hours. The focus for enhanced downward mixing of strongest winds will be along the cold front, which is just about to enter the forecast area from the west around 06 Z. Therefore a level 1 was issued for isolated convection embedded in 35 m/s LL flow. Model discrepancies remain high with exact timing of the cold front so confidence in this level 1 placement is low. ...

More details see link above.




Current jet stream!


(Click to enlarge). Plane with 672 kt! Source.





Hope everyone stays safe in the path of "Elon" (and "Felix" is forming right behind) ...
Quoting 216. Skyepony:


Both those years it burned here that I lived thru (I heard stories about all that in the 60s.. from parents), the relentless heat & dry came from the west, all the smoke went east. We choked.. Couldn't have been so bad over there in Tampa. I really need to pour over the whole FL fire history. See if we've really even had those burn events in SWFL. Get back to y'all on it..
Good evening Skye. I believe the worse drought ever recorded in Florida was 70-71..It was horrible.
Would be a good wavemaker for FL and possibly NC. Hopefully the weather is not unreasonably cold.

Quoting 260. Tornado6042008X:

The next interesting part of the run shows the storm next week off shore.

Quoting 272. hydrus:

Good evening Skye. I believe the worse drought ever recorded in Florida was 70-71..It was horrible.


How horrible can a drought in Florida be. Living in California means there's basically no rain for 5 months straight for most of the state in the summer. In a bad years, like 2013, most big cities got less than 10 inches for the whole year. SF got 6 inches of rain in 2013
Quoting 245. Tropicsweatherpr:



I always like to read what you analize about different things and I would want to know what is your take on the El Limbo ENSO?

I'm not exactly familiar with El Limbo other than the context in which the discussion described it, but this warm ENSO neutral event is about as close as you can get to being in an El Nino phase, without actually officially being in one.

Much like how the National Hurricane Center has to make a call whether a tropical cyclone has formed or not, the folks at the Climate Prediction Center have to weigh in persistence of the event and the anticipation of how long it may last. just as the NHC does with short-lived cyclones that tend to lack persistence and can sometimes fall just short of being classified because of it.
Although this particular event has almost been a year in the making, there is still very much a chance (50/50) that we could see an El Nino event sprout during late winter or early spring. The Southern Oscillation Index has more or less stayed near the El Nino threshold, and the subsurface warm pool remains intact for the time being with what appears to be another strong westerly wind burst originated over the western Pacific.

I'd tend to agree that it is definitely not as obvious that we will get an El Nino event, but I'd say that an El Limbo is definitely the best term to describe the current state of the ENSO.
We'll just have to see how the next few months play out.
Quoting WeatherBAC:
The GFS model shows some possible sleet mixed with light rain tomorrow across the central Gulf Coast, usually I wouldn't think much of it considering the dry air that is in place now, but after watching the local forecast for tomorrow they have a 20% chance of light rain and possible sleet showers tomorrow, I'm kinda skeptical but I guess we will see if it all unfolds.
I'm very skeptical given our forecast QPF values of 0.02" and dry air once again throughout almost the entire air column. There's a much better chance over MS and LA tomorrow, so keep an eye on what happens there. If the actual weather starts there being more than a few ice pellets, something could make it into south Alabama. For everything that could make this happen there are about 10 things against it, so don't get your hopes up. Now, take a look at the models for Sunday morning. We probably have our best chance, although still small, for some frozen precipitation then.
As temps bottomed out around the upper teens this morning, there was a mass power outage in Ft. Walton Beach, FL. School was canceled for some. I'll probably hear more in tomorrow's paper.
278. vis0

Quoting 74. sar2401:

I've looked at pellet stoves and the requirement for an electrical power source put me off, even though they are more efficient than split wood stoves. As long as the power stays on the amount of power that a pellet stove consumes isn't very much, but it's having an alternate source of heat in a major ice storm that makes a wood stove appealing to me. Like I wrote, I'd be better off financially to invest in two new furnaces to replace my 20+ year old models than to ever buy a wood stove, but the backup source of heat doesn't get answered with that option either. If I had unlimited funds, I'd just do them all but, alas, I don't, so I have to make most of my decision based on payback time.

The other issue down here is that the vast majority of firewood is pine. Properly seasoned, it's a good source of heat, but it burns about twice as fast as something like oak, so that means feeding and backing the stove twice as often as well. Stoves that will handle really big logs that burn pine more efficiently are now up to about $5,000. Like you, I'm not getting younger, so splitting, stacking, and carrying firewood is not only a lot more difficult, it may not even be possible some day in the future. That nature of pine is that it also creosotes up the chimney that much faster as well.

It would be nice if there was one decision I could make that would be easy...:-)
http://www.popularmechanics.com/home/improvement/ energy-efficient/is-wood-the-best-renewable-fuel-for-heating
Quoting 274. nwobilderburg:



How horrible can a drought in Florida be. Living in California means there's basically no rain for 5 months straight for most of the state in the summer. In a bad years, like 2013, most big cities got less than 10 inches for the whole year. SF got 6 inches of rain in 2013
It can be very bad. Lake Okeechobee is a vital source of water for South Florida . When the lake levels drop to severe limits , many things happen, including salt water intrusion , which kills many plants and salinates water supplies that could usually be used for drinking. Fires are incredibly dangerous during normal years , nevermind when there is a major drought.
NWS, Wilmington, NC

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM THURSDAY...THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT
CONTINUES TO THE BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS AND OVERRUNS THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. 18Z MODELS WERE
SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS: THE GFS WAS MUCH FASTER WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN AND HAD CLOUDS COMPLETELY BLANKETING THE AREA BEFORE
12Z...WHILE THE NAM...RUC...AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW RUNS
WERE SLOWER WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL 12Z OR
LATER. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST IS APPROACHING THE COAST
RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL PROBABLY BE INTO GEORGETOWN SOON...LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS AS EARLY AS 01Z/8 PM EST. THIS IS PROBABLY
TOO FAST GIVEN THE COLD AND VERY DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
INLAND. STILL...IT MAKES THE FASTER GFS APPEAR TO BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...PENDING A
BETTER HANDLE ON HOW STRONG THE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES
LATER TONIGHT. INTERESTING...DUE TO THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR IN PLACE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE 275K-280K THETA
SURFACES...QUITE A BIT LOWER/COLDER THAN WE TYPICALLY ANALYZE SUCH
SITUATIONS.
some very light snow grains just starting now
just recorded a wind gust of 64kmh as per my pws
air temp is 14.7f chill is -9f in gusty winds

Quoting 268. Climate175:

8z NAM SIMRAD for tonight, credit to Pcroton for getting this.


Skeptical of this. I'll let you know if this verifies in an hour and a half.
Quoting 271. barbamz:


Current jet stream!


(Click to enlarge). Plane with 672 kt! Source.




(snipped portions of post)

In reading through barbamz's post, this portion caught my eye. Yesterday there was a bunch of back-and-forth on the blog about passenger planes and speed of sound; I think the dialogue was started by someone commenting on the speed of the jet stream.

It appears the plane barbamz identified in her post is traveling in excess of the speed of sound. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Quoting 276. sar2401:

I'm very skeptical given our forecast QPF values of 0.02" and dry air once again throughout almost the entire air column. There's a much better chance over MS and LA tomorrow, so keep an eye on what happens there. If the actual weather starts there being more than a few ice pellets, something could make it into south Alabama. For everything that could make this happen there are about 10 things against it, so don't get your hopes up. Now, take a look at the models for Sunday morning. We probably have our best chance, although still small, for some frozen precipitation then.


Well the rain chance for that time is only 20% but that of course is still 3 days out so the weather system could of course move in earlier then Sunday around midday, but as of right now it looks kinda like a dud, but heck its the Weather and we really don't know exactly what will happen until it all unfolds so I
guess we shall see.

Also I would like to go on record as being in the same boat as PensacolaDoug in hoping for a gulf coast winter storm.
Quoting 282. Drakoen:



Skeptical of this. I'll let you know if this verifies in an hour and a half.
Remember how the clipper blew up once it got to the DMV area?.Not saying this one will.
Quoting 283. LAbonbon:


In reading through barbamz's post, this portion caught my eye. Yesterday there was a bunch of back-and-forth on the blog about passenger planes and speed of sound; I think the dialogue was started by someone commenting on the speed of the jet stream.

It appears the plane barbamz identified in her post is traveling in excess of the speed of sound. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

It is 667kn @20c(68F) and if I remember right it is at sea level, SAR would know...

SoS
Big flop. Forecast called for a low of 30 degrees tonight: it's already 27!
Quoting 285. washingtonian115:

Remember how the clipper blew up once it got to the DMV area?.Not saying this one will.


True but a lot of these radar returns that you are seeing aren't hitting the ground because of a significant dewpoint depression near the top of the boundary layer.
289. beell
Quoting 261. Patrap:

Last time I saw a low ceiling and these temps,well..its really looking like it wants to Sneaux here tonight.


Neaux Sneaux for you.

A very thin saturated layer underneath the low-level inversion around 900 mb causing the cloud deck. Pretty dry above and below. KLCH to the west does not look much different but there is some moisture headed east above the boundary layer.

Quoting 286. PedleyCA:


It is 667kn @20c(68F) and if I remember right it is at sea level, SAR would know...


Speed of sound:

661 knots/761 mph at sea level
589 knots/678 mph at 30,000 ft
Source

Plane speed was 672 kts at 31,000 feet.

In light of yesterday's conversation, I wanted to ask (frankly, I didn't read all the posts about it, as I am not that knowledgeable about aviation).



Gusts in northern Scotland now up to 201 kmh = 125 mph ....
(Ummh, should sleep but this is too exciting to watch).

Neaux Sneaux for you.

SNEAUX NAZI!
294. beell
Quoting 292. PensacolaDoug:


Neaux Sneaux for you.

SNEAUX NAZI!


Yup. If I don't get sneaux-nobody gets sneaux.
Quoting 292. PensacolaDoug:

Neaux Sneaux for you.

SNEAUX NAZI!

Sorry, Pat - I'll take it over here. No sneaux for me, either.
22F here with a dewpoint of 9F.
New Arctic Blast of Wind Triggers Blizzard Warnings in Plains; Snow Continues to Pound Great Lakes


Current Winter Storm Alerts
Watches, warnings, and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Map updates once an hour.
299. vis0
CREDIT:: NWS & ERAU
DATE::(INFRARED)201501-08;1315 _ 201501-08;2345
OBS:: Why Sar2401,washi115 & others in SE stated wind shifted from southward to a northward direction, watch clouds going NE up the eastern side of Appalachians zoom through Va. - Pa.

http://youtu.be/TOTd9oOczqA


BONUS:: weird swirl in S Ca.?, as mentioned (3 days ago)  how what was to be El Niño moisture is going "ikodom" (modoki reverse, no real word) just pointing out instead of moisture splitting towards N & S Ca. as if one placed finger in a water hose (water hose being the being pineapple xpress) therefore the split flow from two streams of water creates 2 wet edges(NW USofA + S. Ca/Baja) but a dry center (Central Ca.) which to me is El Niño Modoki . Instead its doing that but from the opposite side as its coming in from the NE (SE Wash to Ca) & from the SE (SW Az. to Ca.) westward.


other side notes:: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/01/150108-eta-carinae-3d-space-astronomy-pictures-sc ience/
if anyone is looking for missing links 1 of 3 "light based" missing links is here, light based as in bringing "knowledge" to the human soul...light bosons.

Here a VId i have not watched, it is titled::Super Typhoon Neoguri (eumetsat)


Elev 548 ft 43.77 N, 79.28 W | Updated 0 sec ago


Light Snow

Light Snow


13.8 F

Feels Like -6 F

winds gusting 60 kmh

Blizzard Conditions: Dangerous Travel
The aforementioned cold front, known as an "Alberta Clipper", will dive southeast from Canada into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains Thursday and Thursday night.

Snowfall totals only around an inch or so are expected in parts of the Dakotas, western Minnesota and northern Iowa.

However, strong northwest winds gusting to 50 mph behind the arctic front are producing widespread blowing snow in rural areas, reducing visibilities to near zero in some areas. These winds will continue into the late evening hours over parts of eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa. The National Weather Service issued blizzard warnings for those areas.

Whiteout conditions were reported Thursday afternoon in much of the blizzard warning area. Travel was not advised on a number of roads in the eastern Dakotas, western and southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa on Thursday afternoon. At least 15 highways in southwest Minnesota were closed, according to the Minnesota Department of Transportation.

Visibility fell to one block in De Smet, South Dakota, and 1 to 2 blocks in Brookings, South Dakota, according to the National Weather Service. In North Dakota, the customs and border patrol station along Interstate 29 at the Canadian border near Pembina was closed when Manitoba authorities shut down the highway on their side of the border. The road and border crossing have since reopened.


Galesburg, Michigan
Quoting 294. beell:


Yup. If I don't get sneaux-nobody gets sneaux.

WRONG
WRONG

hahahahahaha
Quoting 283. LAbonbon:


In reading through barbamz's post, this portion caught my eye. Yesterday there was a bunch of back-and-forth on the blog about passenger planes and speed of sound; I think the dialogue was started by someone commenting on the speed of the jet stream.

It appears the plane barbamz identified in her post is traveling in excess of the speed of sound. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Don't know if it qualifies when you are traveling with a 200 kt. jet.
Quoting 290. LAbonbon:



Speed of sound:

661 knots/761 mph at sea level
589 knots/678 mph at 30,000 ft
Source

Plane speed was 672 kts at 31,000 feet.

In light of yesterday's conversation, I wanted to ask (frankly, I didn't read all the posts about it, as I am not that knowledgeable about aviation).


I'm pretty sure that quoted speed was not airspeed but ground speed -- it looks like they may have a very strong jet stream tail wind -- possibly 300+KPH, so the air speed is ground speed minus the jet stream of 300+kph, therefor approximately 475-500mph -- normal jet air speed.
Pedley, Abaco & CaneFree - thanks for responding. I understand better now (your posts led me to the Wiki pages on Groundspeed & Airspeed). So that plane is moving really fast, but the speed of sound doesn't factor in, as it's relative due to the speed of the jet stream.

Thanks again!
statement update shortly

10:09 PM EST Thursday 08 January 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Persons in or near this area should be on the lookout for adverse weather conditions and take necessary safety precautions. Watch for updated statements.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details and continue to monitor the situation through your local radio and television stations or Weatheradio
& Pedley - you had a link to LiveScience on your last post, where I spent a good hour reading other cool articles -thanks for that!

Good night, all.
Quoting 274. nwobilderburg:



How horrible can a drought in Florida be. Living in California means there's basically no rain for 5 months straight for most of the state in the summer. In a bad years, like 2013, most big cities got less than 10 inches for the whole year. SF got 6 inches of rain in 2013

If you had been here for the fires in the summer of 1998, you would see that drought can be a pretty serious issue here
10:09 PM EST Thursday 08 January 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Poor winter driving conditions expected tonight into Friday morning.

An Alberta clipper with yet another Arctic cold front will sweep southeastward across the regions tonight, bringing an area of snow with it. Total snowfall amounts with this system will be fairly modest in the 2 to 5 cm range for most, although 5 to 10 cm is quite possible in a few locales near the Great Lakes and in Southwestern Ontario where the weather system appears to have a little more moisture.

Strong and gusty southwesterly winds will cause drifting and some blowing snow in many areas, with visibility occasionally reduced to 1 kilometre or less in exposed areas.

Driving conditions will deteriorate tonight with the snow. Poor winter driving conditions from occasional low visibility in snow and blowing snow, as well as some accumulating snow on untreated roads will likely extend into the morning rush hour on Friday in many areas. Motorists should allow extra time to reach their destination.

Snow squall watches and warnings are in effect for many locations near Eastern Lake Ontario, Eastern Lake Erie and near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay where snow squalls and more significant snow amounts are forecast.

The cold front will move through to the southeast of the Lower Great Lakes on Friday morning, taking the area of snow with it.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 9:08 PM EST on January 08, 2015
...Lake effect snow warning remains in effect until 10 am EST Friday...

* locations...northern Erie and Genesee County...including all of the Buffalo Metro area.

* Timing...late this evening through late Friday morning. A general light snow will give way to heavy lake effect snow late tonight...which will drift south across Buffalo and Batavia just before daybreak.

* Accumulations...3 to 6 inches overnight and 3 to 6 inches early Friday...leading to storm totals of 5 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* Snowfall rates...3 inches per hour or more possible in the heaviest lake effect snows.

* Winds...southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph producing significant blowing and drifting snow with near blizzard conditions at times.

* Visibilities...near zero at times.

* Impacts...very heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow will create extremely difficult travel conditions with near zero visibility and deep snow cover on roads. The heaviest snow is expected to fall just before and during the morning commute... which will result in significant traffic disruptions. If you must travel...be prepared for severe winter driving conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in Road and visibility conditions.

If you lose power and plan on running a generator...make sure that the generator is located outdoors and is properly ventilated. Space heaters should also be properly ventilated and used only if they are operating properly. Make sure snow does not block exhausts and fresh air intakes for high efficiency furnaces and water heaters.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.Weather.Gov/Buffalo.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.Report@noaa.Gov...posting to the NWS Buffalo facebook Page...or tweet...using the hashtag bufwx



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
908 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

NYZ006>008-091015-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.150109T0600Z-150110T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
908 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO
6 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...NORTHERN LEWIS
COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. A
GENERAL LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.

* SNOWFALL RATES...OVER 3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
CREATE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY AND DEEP SNOW COVER ON ROADS. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME
NEARLY IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE PREPARED FOR
SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 8:53 PM CST on January 08, 2015
Scattered Clouds
0 °F / -18 °C
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: -18 °F / -28 °C
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: -5 °F / -21 °C
Wind: 13 mph / 20 km/h / 5.7 m/s from the WNW
Pressure: 29.81 in / 1009 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 7000 ft / 2133 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1624 ft / 495 m
warming up.....
Our good friend Kevin Martin got a visit from the FBI yesterday. From what I've been able to read about online...and I'm not sure if it's 100% true...he's been making threats against the NWS office in San Diego and they plan on filing a restraining order against him.

Link
if el nino does not occur does everything start over or does it continue to build?

Quoting 310. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The snow is building up nicely from the clipper.Well time to go to bed.Hopefully I'll be surprised...
320. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Great blog by CPC written by Emily Becker named Little Engine that couldn't quite

For sure is a great discussion of why they think El Nino is not going to happen.

uf

Quoting 317. WaterWitch11:

if el nino does not occur does everything start over or does it continue to build?


stupid question?...yay me :)
Quoting 318. Patrap:










25 degrees now
Nothing reach the ground here yet.
Quoting 296. Drakoen:

22F here with a dewpoint of 9F.

What part of the country you in?
Quoting 325. opal92nwf:


What part of the country you in?


Ohio Valley
Quoting Patrap:






Pat what is that up top.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TOWARD DAWN...


.LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN
FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>063-091200-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WW.Y.0001.150109T1000Z-150109T1600Z/
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON
959 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING: 4 AM TO 10 AM

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Quoting Patrap:








Oooh, a .gif portraying time dilation. Awesome.

Quoting 315. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Our good friend Kevin Martin got a visit from the FBI yesterday. From what I've been able to read about online...and I'm not sure if it's 100% true...he's been making threats against the NWS office in San Diego and they plan on filing a restraining order against him.

Link
There's no threats in that video anywhere.

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated -2 sec ago


Light Snow

Light Snow


15.3 °F

Feels Like 0 °F







N

33.3

Wind from SW
Gusts 37.4 mph
Quoting 329. LAbonbon:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TOWARD DAWN...


.LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARD DAWN
FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>063-091200-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WW.Y.0001.150109T1000Z-150109T1600Z/
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESVILLE...HARRISONBURG...VIDALIA...
FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON
959 PM CST THU JAN 8 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING: 4 AM TO 10 AM

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

I'm watching that shot of shortwave energy in the Gulf associated with an upper-level trough over northern Mexico. There may be enough divergence to set off some mixed wintry precipitation here this morning. I'll definitely be staying up for it, lol. Looks like between 9 to 12z is when we'll see the greatest chance based on models and water vapor imagery.

I think 40% is a good estimate for now.
Quoting 333. KoritheMan:

I'm watching that shot of shortwave energy in the Gulf associated with an upper-level trough over northern Mexico. There may be enough divergence to set off some mixed wintry precipitation here this morning. I'll definitely be staying up for it, lol. Looks like between 9 to 12z is when we'll see the greatest chance based on models and water vapor imagery.

I think 40% is a good estimate for now.


so jealous
24 now, not a breath of wind.
Quoting 334. opal92nwf:


so jealous
Yeah, but if we do get anything, it's not likely to be a particularly high-end, so... maybe that'll assuage you a bit? :P
Quoting 336. KoritheMan:


Yeah, but if we do get anything, it's not likely to be a particularly high-end event, so... maybe that'll assuage you a bit? :P


I crave any drop of winter precip from the sky. But, I'm still pretty content after last year..

Quoting 337. opal92nwf:


I crave any drop of winter precip from the sky. But, I'm still pretty content after last year..
Speak for yourself. I ain't got **** since... I dunno... 2009 I think was the last time. Pretty sure.
Quoting 331. KoritheMan:


There's no threats in that video anywhere.



Because he's talking to the FBI? If he made a threat to them, he'd be in jail right now.
Quoting 339. Astrometeor:



Because he's talking to the FBI? If he made a threat to them, he'd be in jail right now.
I meant he didn't mention any threats to the NWS to the FBI. Whether he's telling the truth or not, I dunno. Probably not.
Quoting 340. KoritheMan:

I meant he didn't mention any threats to the NWS to the FBI. Whether he's telling the truth or not, I dunno. Probably not.



He hints at them. He's trying to argue that he has a first amendment right to do what he does...which he doesn't, at least not exactly. He's going to try to argue that what he said wasn't a threat, but I haven't seen what he said to the NWS, so I can't say definitively one way or the other.
They abandonded the last 3 races at Wagwa in Australia due to too much water vapor(rain).
Rack up another multi-million dollar loss due to climate change.
00z GFS and GFS Para show wintry precip in Louisiana Friday afternoon.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1248 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS
MORNING...

.LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES ARE POSSIBLE.

MSZ068>071-091500-
/O.NEW.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.150109T1000Z-150109T1800Z/
WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...
LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN
1248 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING
TO NOON CST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4
AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY.

* TIMING...4 AM TO 12 PM

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WITH SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.15 OF AN INCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET OR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED
FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING.
Quoting 271. barbamz:

Hopping shortly in once again as I just saw new very bullish warnings from "Estofex" concerning "Elon" (although they are not in charge of general wind warnings but only of warnings of convective events like thunderstorms, tornadoes, downbursts ...) :



Estofex Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 09 Jan 2015 06:00 to Sat 10 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Thu 08 Jan 2015 21:25, Forecaster: TUSCHY



Warm-front is coming through Hamburg, Germany, right now, with increasing wind gusts and it has convective properties and quite a good line of thunderstorms, which is an ominous sign for things to come. Front is full of energy, so it will get interesting. The Storm Surge forecast isn't threatening, I live in an evacuation zone near the harbour, so this is always my main concern. Wind strength normally diminish from the coast to Hamburg because of land friction, but I will see what this storm has to offer.
347. beell

Current RAP-Near freezing surface temps
Quoting 345. ChrisHamburg:
Warm-front is coming through Hamburg, Germany, right now, with increasing wind gusts and it has convective properties and quite a good line of thunderstorms, which is an ominous sign for things to come. Front is full of energy, so it will get interesting. The Storm Surge forecast isn't threatening, I live in an evacuation zone near the harbour, so this is always my main concern. Wind strength normally diminish from the coast to Hamburg because of land friction, but I will see what this storm has to offer




Hey Chris, here this current track of lightning (saved loop). Weird for sure. Stay safe up north! Quite a howling around my place (Mainz) now. And in the southern parts of Germany it should get worse in the afternoon and tonight.


Gales (km/h) so far.




Hurricane-force gusts cause disruption to power and travel
BBC, 9 January 2015 Last updated at 11:00 GMT
Hurricane-force gusts have caused travel disruption and left tens of thousands of homes without power across Scotland.
The storm caused the suspension of all ScotRail trains, although some limited services have now started running.
About 80,000 homes are currently without power as the Atlantic jet stream caused gusts of more 100mph (160km/h). ...

Whole article with photos and videos see link above.


Current jet stream over the northern parts of the British Isles aiming at the Danish and German coastline and further inland.


In this current satellite pic you can clearly spot the jetstream as a cloudless bow.
Quoting 348. barbamz:





Hey Chris, here this current track of lightning (saved loop). Weird for sure. Stay safe up north! Quite a howling around my place (Mainz) now. And in the southern parts of Germany it should get worse in the afternoon and tonight.


To add to the weird nature of convective weather in January in my place we got a small hail event. We have right now sustain winds of 50 km/h. In Helgoland, an Island off the coast, it it 70 km/h. This shows the effect of land friction in such events. The coast and high elevation places will take the brunt of the wind impact, but there will be effects from falling trees branches etc.. There is a tradition to put Christmas trees at street corners for collection, there are reports of incidents with them right now, as is obvious.
Nearby Weather Stations cloudy no snow yet at 7am on jan 9 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
29.0 °F
DopplerDon.com
29.5 °F
Rock Hill
28.6 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
29.3 °F
Foxon
27.7 °F
east haven morgan point
31.3 °F
Branford Shoreline
30.6 °
25f and l/v winds here on the farm this am. 3rd night in a row the forecast didn't play out. The cold front was supposed to come thru at midnight, and then temps were forecast to drop to 13 with 20g30 winds. I'm not complaining, but a lot of folks around here are scratching their heads about the accuracy of forecasts over the past year. My 8 yo daughter even notices when she checks our PWS readout "Daddy, I thought it was supposed to be x today".

Elon's center of circulation has now made landfall in Norway/Sweden (saved loop). Notice the bow of the jetstream with cold (orange) air on which Elon has been riding along. --- Real picture book weather, although unfortunately first reports of injuries come in.
NWS, Wilmington, NC

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...FORECASTS HAVE BEEN RE-UPDATED TO INCLUDE
LIGHT FREEZING PCPN IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
. ALTHO PCPN
AMOUNTS ARE MINISCULE...ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL INSTANTLY STICK
TO THE GROUND GIVEN SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE 20S. ANY ICE THAT
OCCURS WILL FINALLY MELT AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE 32 LATER THIS
MORNING.

LIGHT FREEZING PCPN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE INLAND
PENDER...COLUMBUS...BLADEN AND ROBESON COUNTIES. LATEST RADAR
RETURNS INDICATE SOME RETURNS FROM THIS AREA...WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PCPN NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE ILM CWA. LATEST SREF STILL
SAYING ZL-/ZR- REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES
WITH THE MAJORITY OF IT MAINLY NNE OF THE FA THRU 9 AM. WHATS
AMAZING WITH THIS PCPN OCCURRING...IS THAT THE SFC DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING 7 TO 10 DEGREES CELCIUS !!!
356. vis0
CREDIT:: some nyc nut
D&T:: 201501-09;~0715EzT
SUBJECT:: SNA-OOH!
http://youtu.be/R4sF3yK1WSE





        Why the plastic bag?
        Trying to catch snow, butterflies or showing how the crinkling sound momentarily amps the energy  (crazy theory how plastic bag sounds are reacting via sound near speed of light, this also gets the complex brain to trigger addictive flashbacks but i digress) and after the amp it lower the energy momentarily, if the ml-d where set to #3.3 i noticed there is not any ascending or descending  momentary reaction. 
        Why i think it (ml-d settings above #2.3, preferably #3.3) triggers quakes as the cooling is continuous (underground) therefore the continuous up welling of sub-atomically cooler air causes shifts underground to trigger...    (NOT CREATE are you nuts, creating a quake needs the force of 2 women ...i don't have that level of energy)   ...a quake. By sub-atomic i mean the minuscule static within atoms is ever so slightly cooled but if you take millions of those you have a big change coming. NO QUESTIONS, that chance ended at the end of summer 2014 after giving humankind 40 yrs to ask of its workings or test the ml-d.
Snow has blanketed nearly everything in a thin white layer quite quickly this Friday morning here in NYC. Healthy sized flakes are sticking immediately to all surfaces, since we've been sitting in weather below 30 degrees for some time now.

Traffic, of course, is immediately snarled, proving that 75% of drivers are clueless in the winter (all facts and figures are courtesy of LongIslandBeaches thinktank-like brain.)

Of that percentage, half acknowledge, "I admit, I have no idea what I'm doing."

The other half proclaim, "WATCH WHAT I CAN DO!!!" and promptly spin out into a guard rail.
Quoting 346. tampabaymatt:




Totals are getting less and less each day for next week's rain prospects across FL. It'l be warm tho which is something most of the US wants.

Looking like a Spring-like pattern setting in.

Orlando
Looking like a Spring-like pattern setting in.



Some showers are forming out of nowhere in my area. A few rain drops hit my windshield on the way to work and I had to do a double take. So much for a 0% chance of rain today called for by local mets.
Quoting 359. tampabaymatt:

Looking like a Spring-like pattern setting in.



Some showers are forming out of nowhere in my area. A few rain drops hit my windshield on the way to work and I had to do a double take. So much for a 0% chance of rain today called for by local mets.


Looking like a pop up thunderstorm pattern next week for FL. Hit or miss hopefully its hit for us. By the way I disagree with Skye's post about SW FL being dry this Spring and Summer as some of the long range projections are showing above normal rains across FL for May & June. This is a strong signal for above average rain prospects across FL this Spring really from March on looks very wet across FL.

April


May


June
South Central Texas including San Antonio and Austin.
Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:



Looking like a pop up thunderstorm pattern next week for FL. Hit or miss hopefully its hit for us. By the way I disagree with Skye's post about SW FL being dry this Spring and Summer as some of the long range projections are showing above normal rains across FL for May & June. This is a strong signal for above average rain prospects across FL this Spring really from March on looks very wet across FL.

April
img style="width: 500px; max-width: 501px;"

I always love when we get good rainfall in May. Usually, that is the worst month of the year for lawns as the sun is baking the ground for 13 hours a day but we're not getting much rain because the summer thunderstorms haven't started yet. It's great when May is wet because I don't have to hand water dry spots in my lawn every night.
Quoting 362. tampabaymatt:




I hope that pans out as that is what would one expect during warm enso neutral conditions across FL in the Spring. I think what Skye was referring to was if we had Strong El-Nino because if that were the case then FL would be on fire later this Spring.
Quoting 362. tampabaymatt:



Some years it seems as if May is the hottest month of the year as temps can hit up in the upper 90's however it doesn't feel as hot because you don't have those high dewpoints that we have from June thru mid October. I guess its all relative.
Quoting 362. tampabaymatt:

My lawn goes brown like it should from January to June.
Quoting 365. jjjerry1:

My lawn goes brown like it should from January to June.


Growing season hasn't stopped here. Grass is as green as can be around my area. Still have to cut the grass every 2 to 3 weeks.
Quoting 366. StormTrackerScott:



Growing season hasn't stopped here. Grass is as green as can be around my area. Still have to cut the grass every 2 to 3 weeks.


Same here. My lawn is as green as ever and I have also had to mow it at least every 3 weeks. I have a feeling there will be no dormancy to the grass this year as we're not getting any sort of winter yet.
Quoting 367. tampabaymatt:



Same here. My lawn is as green as ever and I have also had to mow it at least every 3 weeks. I have a feeling there will be no dormancy to the grass this year as we're not getting any sort of winter yet.


I'm 34 and I can tell you I have never seen anything like what I have seen the last 2 winters where the deep cold essentially stops around Ocala because of these Arctic highs quickly moving off the Mid Atlantic causing winds to veer to the NE across C & S FL. Years past we would see several strong cold fronts a year push temps into the upper 20's & 30's for lows but that has been non existent the last 2 Winters.
heavy snow at my house in new haven,conn
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Same here. My lawn is as green as ever and I have also had to mow it at least every 3 weeks. I have a feeling there will be no dormancy to the grass this year as we're not getting any sort of winter yet.


We certainly have gotten winter up here in the panhandle. Central to Southern FL is known for its mild winters and occasional freezes. Thats why all those snow birds migrate there in the winter because of the great weather. :) Im sure no one is complaining about the warmer weather down there! If ya want cold, go to Canada lol.


East Haven, Connecticut 9:07 AM EST on January 09, 2015
26 °F
Heavy Snow
Its plenty cold in the panhandle.

Windchilzzzz

Rain expected today and tomorrow in N. San Diego county! Every little bit helps.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I'm 34 and I can tell you I have never seen anything like what I have seen the last 2 winters where the deep cold essentially stops around Ocala because of these Arctic highs quickly moving off the Mid Atlantic causing winds to veer to the NE across C & S FL. Years past we would see several strong cold fronts a year push temps into the upper 20's & 30's for lows but that has been non existent the last 2 Winters.


You're forgetting last January.
We had frost down here in the Fort Myers area (I built a Frosty Man).

You can subtract about 5 degrees for the areas outside of the city.
Orlando, January 2014

Jan. 7th
34 degrees
Jan. 17th
34 degrees
Jan. 18th
37 degrees
Jan. 20th
39 degrees
Jan. 23 rd
37 degrees
Quoting 366. StormTrackerScott:



Growing season hasn't stopped here. Grass is as green as can be around my area. Still have to cut the grass every 2 to 3 weeks.
Thankfully some enlightened people in Florida have sharply reduced or stopped irrigating their lawn and reduced fertilizer as the non point source run off is responsible for most of our water quality issues.
neil degrasse tyson is starting a talk show on nat'l geo :)

http://io9.com/neil-degrasse-tysons-amazing-start alk-is-getting-its-ow-1678373964
Quoting 39. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

el nino is warming ocean conditions while la nina is cooling ocean conditions and neutral is not warming or cooling conditions


Thanks Keeper. That's the Simple thing that I was looking for.
Quoting 366. StormTrackerScott:



Growing season hasn't stopped here. Grass is as green as can be around my area. Still have to cut the grass every 2 to 3 weeks.
yeppers just cut the grass this weekend.
At 6:30 this morning the winter precip. in the south looked kinda spotty, but since then a more concentrated plume of sleet mixed with some snow flurries and probably some light rain or freezing rain has developed stretching form Natchez, Miss. to the Alabama state line in Washington, County Alabama and is moving east. Quite a bit more winter precip. then I anticipated. As far as it reaching anywhere else in Alabama besides Washington or Clarke Counties i find pretty slim considering that the temps will rise to the low and mid 40's, much to warm for winter precip. in fact even the rain most likely fade away. But glad so see that my prediction for this morning came true. :-)
Quoting 375. Bruculinu:

Rain expected today and tomorrow in N. San Diego county! Every little bit helps.


Good morning and welcome to WU!

GFS forecasts a significant warm up in about a week or so.
385. yoboi
Quoting 382. LAbonbon:



Good morning and welcome to WU!




Good morning .... 34 and raining here wanted snow....blah weather today
Quoting 376. Sfloridacat5:



You're forgetting last January.
We had frost down here in the Fort Myers area (I built a Frosty Man).

You can subtract about 5 degrees for the areas outside of the city.
Orlando, January 2014

Jan. 7th
34 degrees
Jan. 17th
34 degrees
Jan. 18th
37 degrees
Jan. 20th
39 degrees
Jan. 23 rd
37 degrees


No, I'm not as that is not upper 20's to low 30's. I'm 10 miles NW of Orlando and there was no freeze here last year. Hasn't been early 2013.
I just love how the dry spot is again over S.W. Florida. Just a slight shift north of my area. It doesn't look good for any significant rainfall anytime soon here.
Ughh so close...

2015 Atlantic Hurricane season predictions from Global Weather Oscillations are 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They predict this season will be the most active, intense, and costliest in 3 years, and they also predict that over the next few years the season will be entering a climate pulse enhancement cycle, enhancing tropical activity in the atlantic basin.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


No, I'm not as that is not upper 20's to low 30's. I'm 10 miles NW of Orlando and there was no freeze here last year. Hasn't been early 2013.


You said "30s" in your comment.
And if it's 34 degrees in the city of Orlando, you know the temperatures are down in the upper 20s in the colder areas just outside the city.

Quoting 390. Sfloridacat5:



You said "30s" in your comment.
And if it's 34 degrees in the city of Orlando, you know the temperatures are down in the upper 20s in the colder areas just outside the city.




Nope upper 20's to low 30's.

Here's the post again to clear up your confusion.

I'm 34 and I can tell you I have never seen anything like what I have seen the last 2 winters where the deep cold essentially stops around Ocala because of these Arctic highs quickly moving off the Mid Atlantic causing winds to veer to the NE across C & S FL. Years past we would see several strong cold fronts a year push temps into the upper 20's & 30's for lows but that has been non existent the last 2 Winters.
Quoting 390. Sfloridacat5:



You said "30s" in your comment.
And if it's 34 degrees in the city of Orlando, you know the temperatures are down in the upper 20s in the colder areas just outside the city.




Only around Ocala and points north has been the case. Ocala is over an hour away from here.
Quoting 385. yoboi:



Good morning .... 34 and raining here wanted snow....blah weather today


Morning,yoboi. 39F and overcast here. Rain and cold is never fun. The local NWS office has been giving pretty detailed discussions the last couple of days about the chances of wintry weather...the right conditions never occurred here though. Thank goodness...freezing rain and ice are worse to deal with than a cold rain...sleet or a mix isn't bad if the roads don't freeze. Snow would have been nice, though.
110 MPH winds in Scotland with accompanying chaos.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/winds-top-11 0mph-as-jet-stream-lashes-uk/ar-AA7WXb9?ocid=DELLD HP

Link


A busted forecast by the local mets in Tampa today. Showers continue to form in random spots in the area and we were supposed to have a 0% chance of rain today.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Only around Ocala and points north has been the case. Ocala is over an hour away from here.


32 degrees in Sanford (N.E. Suburb of Orlando) that night. (which was a record low by the way)
Some areas outside the city areas would be colder (that's for sure).

But you're point is taken. You're talking about colder air than that.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Ughh so close...

Yeah, right across the border. Looks like SE MS is the dendridic deformation zone sweet spot with the sleet/freezing rain stopping right at the state line. It's up to 43 here in SE AL so our chances for any frozen precipitation are just about zero now. Don't give up hope though. We have another chance Sunday morning and maybe in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
2015 Atlantic Hurricane season predictions from Global Weather Oscillations are 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They predict this season will be the most active, intense, and costliest in 3 years, and they also predict that over the next few years the season will be entering a climate pulse enhancement cycle, enhancing tropical activity in the atlantic basin.
You really need to read more of the GWO site. That is not a reliable or scientific weather forecasting outfit.
And 34 degrees was also a record low for Orlando on Jan. 7th, 2014.
At Orlando International the record is 30 degrees for the date.

Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:

By the way I disagree with Skye's post about SW FL being dry this Spring and Summer as some of the long range projections are showing above normal rains across FL for May & June. This is a strong signal for above average rain prospects across FL this Spring really from March on looks very wet across FL.


I looked at all that more. Which really my post about SWFL being on fire this summer was a first impression, more a thought to look into the whole thing, then a real projection or forecast..

In that part of the ENSO cycle the prevailing west winds disrupts the rains..mainly seabreeze on the east side is overwelmed and doesn't form. Usually FL's more notable burns are center or east side of the state.

Other factors include, the way ENSO has behaved the last year, expect the unexpected & precipitation not to respond according...and this hasn't been a stormy El Nino winter for FL so bad. It's rained enough that vegetation/ fire fuel is growing. Does look like we have another Kelvin Wave coming too so it probably will not be one of those deep or longer term La Nina induced severe FL wildfire, all you tourist leave sort of year either...that really overall tosses a lot of uncertainty into this.

The way ESPI has been, hints conditions may go cool neutral for a bit. Which that following el nino conditions can bring a localized FL drought fire situation. That June long term looked dry for SFL.. It's plentiful precipitation projections recently have not been realized in parts of SFL either.

The the lack of rain complaints on this blog seem to be more from SWFL.. But looking at actual Grace soil moisture maps show developing lack of soil moisture in all the peninsula of FL..(figure 1). The area of evaporation stress east of Tampa matches up well with the current area of wildfire activity concentration.

For now I'll go 25% chance of a notable fire season for somewhere in Central or South Florida this summer.


figure 1. Grace surface soil moisture drought indicator.
The ECMWF 00z continued to show a storm impacting the mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week. Now we've been down this road before; however, there is strong ensemble support in the 500mb wavelengths for a western CONUS ridge and an eastern CONUS trough coupled with blocking over the Canadian Meritimes. This amplified pattern favors a storm more often than not and the Weather Prediction Center agrees with that philosophy. Of course the other numerical models show the system being too far southeast as the eastern CONUS slides to the east in a more progressive nature.

The models show the NAO and especially the AO heading negative which favors a trough over the ECONUS with downstream blocking.

A wee bit breezy here in Berlin today. Fire department I believe has issued a state of emergency due to the winds and lightning and general workload. Christmas trees have become projectiles of sorts.....wild day in the Hauptstadt.

09.01.2015: Planes struggle to land in high crosswinds at Leeds Airport. Britain battered by hurricane-force winds: UK hit with 113mph Atlantic storm leaving 75,000 without power and all in trains in Scotland cancelled... and there's another one on the way
..and if you wake up with the Sunrise

Oil spill near Bryan, OH has killed atleast 150 ducks. People are washing 400 oil-soaked ducks that were rescued. The oil got in a creek.
Quoting 400. Skyepony:


I looked at all that more. Which really my post about SWFL being on fire this summer was a first impression, more a thought to look into the whole thing, then a real projection or forecast..

In that part of the ENSO cycle the prevailing west winds disrupts the rains..mainly seabreeze on the east side is overwelmed and doesn't form. Usually FL's more notable burns are center or east side of the state.

Other factors include, the way ENSO has behaved the last year, expect the unexpected & precipitation not to respond according...and this hasn't been a stormy El Nino winter for FL so bad. It's rained enough that vegetation/ fire fuel is growing. Does look like we have another Kelvin Wave coming too so it probably will not be one of those deep or longer term La Nina induced severe FL wildfire, all you tourist leave sort of year either...that really overall tosses a lot of uncertainty into this.

The way ESPI has been, hints conditions may go cool neutral for a bit. Which that following el nino conditions can bring a localized FL drought fire situation. That June long term looked dry for SFL.. It's plentiful precipitation projections recently have not been realized in parts of SFL either.

The the lack of rain complaints on this blog seem to be more from SWFL.. But looking at actual Grace soil moisture maps show developing lack of soil moisture in all the peninsula of FL..(figure 1). The area of evaporation stress east of Tampa matches up well with the current area of wildfire activity concentration.

For now I'll go 25% chance of a notable fire season for somewhere in Central or South Florida this summer.


figure 1. Grace surface soil moisture drought indicator.



Eh, not sure where this is being derived from when rainfall was plentiful in Central Florida overall the last several months except December, but dryness in December doesn't all of the sudden mean drought and increased fire season. In fact from Clearwater, to Tampa, to Lakeland, rainfall for the year finished at or above normal, and water levels in the Myakka swamp area are at or above average or this time of year.

For example the rain gauge I installed at my parents house received 30.17 just since I installed it near the end of August, that is definitely no sign of a drought.

Now regarding SW FL, I agree, this graphic would make sense as rain gauges finished the year below normal, and since the spring on average in SW FL is much drier than Central FL except during notable El Nino signals.

With that said, I don't know how this graphic could possibly conclude that Central Florida is as dry as SW FL when much of Central Florida finished the year at or above normal, while SW FL actually did finished below normal, the two are not equal based on the data.



I just don't see how that could be accurate, short term drought or soil moisture is covered well by this map:



This is much more supportive of how rainfall reports and water levels of lakes, rivers, and wet lands line up, south Florida does have some short term water issues, but West Central Florida does not. I was just in the Tampa Bay area for Christmas/Holiday break, and plant life and water levels looked better than they did in the summer.


No long term drought, either:


Quoting 406. Jedkins01:



Eh, not sure where this is bbeing derived from when rainfall was plentiful in Central Florida overall the last several months except December, but dryness in December doesn't all of the sudden mean drought and increased fire season. In fact from Clearwater, to Tampa, to Lakeland, rainfall for the year finished at or above normal, and water levels in the Myakka swamp area are at or above average or this time of year.

For example the rain gauge I installed at my parents house received 30.17 just since I installed it near the end of August, that is definitely no sign of a drought.

Now regarding SW FL, I agree, this graphic would make sense as rain gauges finished the year below normal, and since the spring on average in SW FL is much drier than Central FL except during notable El Nino signals.

With that said, I don't know how this graphic could possibly conclude that Central Florida is as dry as SW FL when much of Central Florida finished the year at or above normal, while SW FL actually did finished below normal, the two are not equal based on the data.


The Tampa reporting station recorded just shy of 58 inches of rain in 2014, which is about 10 inches above normal. Also, the heaviest rains always seem to miss TIA (except for a July 2014 day in which the airport logged 4.5 inches in about 4 hours), so my guess is most areas in Tampa Bay received more than 58". I have no idea how any study could reasonably conclude that the Tampa area is in any sort of fire risk at the moment. 2012 and 2013 were also above average in rainfall also.
Here's a closer look of just Florida. From Tampa to Orlando and points north are doing pretty well as far as moisture content.
It's really areas from Fort Myers to the south that are really dry.
12Z GFS Para trending towards the ECMWF. The unfortunate thing is that this is still a week away and that's a lot of model runs to go through. I prefer the placement here as it gives room for the model to trend west with time as opposed to a deviation from the ideal solution this far out.

We definitely need some rain in the Fort Myers area or we could definitely have some fire issues around April - May time frame.


Quoting 408. Sfloridacat5:

Here's a closer look of just Florida. From Tampa to Orlando and points north are doing pretty well as far as moisture content.
It's really areas from Fort Myers to the south that are really dry.



The U.S. Drought Monitor, in it's Southeast discussion this week had this to say about southern Florida:

"The southern tip of Florida has missed out on the recent rainfall. In West Palm Beach, Florida, rainfall in November-December 2014 totaled just 3.70 inches, or 46% of normal. Abnormal dryness (D0) has not yet been added, given that hydrological indicators do not pinpoint any drought-related concerns, as well as the fact that southern Florida is in the midst of its dry season. However, this area remains on a “watch list,” especially if dryness continues and impacts begin to appear."
Quoting 410. Sfloridacat5:

We definitely need some rain in the Fort Myers area or we could definitely have some fire issues around April - May time frame.





Good Morning Folks. That is one of the issues with the "neutral" or lukewarm El Nino pattern. In El Nino years, if a true El Nino, you have those more southernly winter storm trajectories that bring overall wet and cool conditions to Florida and the SE. As it stands right now, we have not seen a lot of gulf lows (that then morph into Noreasters) this winter season thus far. Not sure where more substantial rains for Florida will come from, in the short-term, unless we see the pattern change over the next 60 days.


two inches of snow on the ground in east haven,conn with temp around 25F
I doubt were ever gonna see 3 posts in a row without Fla. in it.
: P
Lawdy'

Quoting 403. barbamz:


09.01.2015: Planes struggle to land in high crosswinds at Leeds Airport. Britain battered by hurricane-force winds: UK hit with 113mph Atlantic storm leaving 75,000 without power and all in trains in Scotland cancelled... and there's another one on the way
RIDE 'EM COWBOY! hope the flight deck had a good supply of Depends on hand.
good morning.....nothing really to report here......10 percent chance of rain...if it holds out until this evening there's a chance of snow....but i'm not expecting it.....mainly just warmer than average temps....

of another note....many might remember wunderbob from times past...he's reporting on facebook of snow flurries this morning south of jacksonville

I doubt were ever gonna see 3 posts in a row without Fla. in it.
: P
Lawdy'



it's the capital state i tell you ;-)
No matter what the weather is in your part of the world, at least the french put wings in them terrorist SOBs.
No matter what the weather is in your part of the world, at least the french put wings in them terrorist SOBs.


wings?...i believe they're wishing for fireproof suits about now
Quoting 401. Drakoen:

The ECMWF 00z continued to show a storm impacting the mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week. Now we've been down this road before; however, there is strong ensemble support in the 500mb wavelengths for a western CONUS ridge and an eastern CONUS trough coupled with blocking over the Canadian Meritimes. This amplified pattern favors a storm more often than not and the Weather Prediction Center agrees with that philosophy. Of course the other numerical models show the system being too far southeast as the eastern CONUS slides to the east in a more progressive nature.

The models show the NAO and especially the AO heading negative which favors a trough over the ECONUS with downstream blocking.


I remember what happened the last time the Euro showed a storm for us...
Quoting LAbonbon:


The U.S. Drought Monitor, in it's Southeast discussion this week had this to say about southern Florida:

"The southern tip of Florida has missed out on the recent rainfall. In West Palm Beach, Florida, rainfall in November-December 2014 totaled just 3.70 inches, or 46% of normal. Abnormal dryness (D0) has not yet been added, given that hydrological indicators do not pinpoint any drought-related concerns, as well as the fact that southern Florida is in the midst of its dry season. However, this area remains on a “watch list,” especially if dryness continues and impacts begin to appear."


Yeah, Naples Florida on the West Coast has only received 1.30" since November 1.
NW FL at least got a glimpse of the sun this morning. 33 and light winds made for a short photo shoot on the sand today. HAPPY FRIDAY!
G'day,
Some novelty sleet / mix precip developed within the rain shield across parts E TX / Cen LA into MS as advertised, but nothing down here yet, rain looks minimal, nuisance variety at most.
Noted this morning's KLIX Slidell sounding discussion reads about the same as was indicated last night on Houma / KHUM 0Z GFS sounding output 12Z forecast of saturated, warming 850-700 mb level temps / dewpoint temps above freezing, below 900 mb to sfc remain w D-temps below 32F. The infamous Gulf warm nose strikes again!

Plymouth State 1-9-15 GFS 12Z KHUM sounding output -


Was a striking contrast observing the sky conditions yesterday aftn - extremely shallow cold air at sfc / winds NNE, yet low level flow and clouds within 800 ft AGL were lifting off Gulf from S/SW. For that matter, clouds returned here by 11 AM yesterday, overcast since while most of SE LA elsewhere had clear / PC skies. BTW - Lows here yesterday were 24-27F as expected (26.2F home, 24.9F KHUM, 24.0F USDA), temps hovered mid-up 30's, and slow rising after midnight. No stations in S LA were freezing today, continue rising with 44F now.
Quoting 419. ricderr:

No matter what the weather is in your part of the world, at least the french put wings in them terrorist SOBs.


wings?...i believe they're wishing for fireproof suits about now


I'm so glad this nightmare is over for now. Congrats to the brave police, best wishes for the survivors to cope with what they've experienced, and sympathy for the relatives of the new victims. ...

--------------------------------------------

While waiting for the outcome I've created a radar loop of Elon's "eye" passing Scotland to its north at midnight last night (upper left corner).

Quoting 414. Patrap:

I doubt were ever gonna see 3 posts in a row without Fla. in it.

Quoting 420. washingtonian115:

I remember what happened the last time the Euro showed a storm for us...


I think this may be a real threat especially with the GFS coming on board somewhat. We'll know more next week, but I like this potential even though it could be volatile.
Quoting 423. DocNDswamp:

G'day,
Some novelty sleet / mix precip developed within the rain shield across parts E TX / Cen LA into MS as advertised, but nothing down here yet, rain looks minimal, nuisance variety at most.
Noted this morning's KLIX Slidell sounding discussion reads about the same as was indicated last night on Houma / KHUM 0Z GFS sounding output 12Z forecast of saturated, warming 850-700 mb level temps / dewpoint temps above freezing, below 900 mb to sfc remain w D-temps below 32F. The infamous Gulf warm nose strikes again!

Plymouth State 1-9-15 GFS 12Z KHUM sounding output -


Was a striking contrast observing the sky conditions yesterday aftn - extremely shallow cold air at sfc / winds NNE, yet low level flow and clouds within 800 ft AGL were lifting off Gulf from S/SW. For that matter, clouds returned here by 11 AM yesterday, overcast since while most of SE LA elsewhere had clear / PC skies. BTW - Lows here yesterday were 24-27F as expected (26.2F home, 24.9F KHUM, 24.0F USDA), temps hovered mid-up 30's, and slow rising after midnight. No stations in S LA were freezing today, continue rising with 44F now.



Heya Doc, I thought fo sho at Sunset the way the low deck looked we were gonna get some snizzle at least,or flurries.

Yup, that warm nose is in.

I guess we look to next week for some novel stuff maybe?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
00z GGEM not as strong as the ECWMF 00z or GFS 12z but has shifted west. Not a bad spot to be in this far out.

re: 427. Patrap 11:17 AM CST on January 09, 2015
Quoting Patrap:


Heya Doc, I thought fo sho at Sunset the way the low deck looked we were gonna get some snizzle at least,or flurries.

Yup, that warm nose is in.

I guess we look to next week for some novel stuff maybe?


Neaux sneaux, snizzle, frizzle, sleet, sneet, snain or slain for us, lol.
Next week? Well you know I'm a grumpy, contrarian skeptical type, so… ;)
Novel, you want novel stuff?
LOL, I could write 10 novels before sneaux falls here, I'll believe it when I see it, and not a single model depiction before!
Quoting 406. Jedkins01:



Eh, not sure where this is being derived from when rainfall was plentiful in Central Florida overall the last several months except December..

What i posted is actual soil moisture. It's derived from GRACE satellites.. What you says makes sense in a constant world, but like wind, humidity and water uses vary so does evaporation rates. For all the sprinkles & showers I've had the garden is needing watered.. Wish the evaporation stress index was up to date. Showed a lot of evaporating in your area of question back in October.
Well the 10-12 highs forecast has busted as we're already around 15 in S C IL. Pressures in mid 30.4" and dew pts/wc's around 0. Hoping the frozen precip holds off Sun until we get back from dropping daughter at Lambert, but they keep moving it into afternoon. Maybe it will stay warm enough to stay rain, another 3-5 degree miss would be appreciated that afternoon.
Quoting 130. Sfloridacat5:

Fact of the day

Dodge Charger HellCat drinks 1.5 gallons of gas per minute under full acceleration.
Car and Driver got 13 mpg in normal (combined highway and city) driving.

The Anti-Prius
In 1966, before I saw the light and began thinking about returning to college and studying conservation and ecology, I drove a 1960 Corvette with a 327 cu.in. V8 and two-four-barrel carburetors that got about 12mpg highway and 6 mpg around town.

Two years later, after a couple encounters with the Highway Patrol, and coming to my senses, I was driving a 110 cu. in. (1.8l) Volvo that got much better mileage.

In 1974 when I was attending U.C. Berkeley and majoring in Conservation of Natural Resources, I alternated between a bicycle that got about 50 miles per hamburger, and a 350cc Honda motorcycle that got about 50 miles per gallon of gasoline.

In the 1990's, I walked to the bus stop and took the bus to the Larkspur Ferry Terminal for an incredible commute from Marin County to downtown San Francisco. That was by far my most enjoyable commuting ever, and every day was an opportunity to enjoy the magnificent scenery of San Francisco's North Bay area and the Golden Gate. Sometimes on the way home, I would see a fellow windsurfer riding the ferry wake in the middle of S.F.Bay!


Rapid or mass transit can be an excellent way to reduce CO2 emissions and actually enjoy commuting.