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High Pressure Records in Jeopardy Across Great Plains

By: Bob Henson 2:00 PM GMT on January 06, 2015

A sprawling dome of high pressure is on track to spill from Canada across most of the eastern United States over the next several days, bringing sharp winds and some of the coldest air of the season to many locations. While the cold will certainly make its presence known, the truly remarkable aspect of this blast will be the strength of the high pressure itself. In some locations, barometric high pressure readings may reach levels never before observed in January, and one or more all-time records can't be ruled out.

Most high-pressure records east of the Rockies occur during the winter months, as darkness and snow cover allow frigid, dense cold air masses to develop and surge southward. Many all-time pressure records across the plains were established during the memorable cold wave of late December 1983, which sent temperatures down to 9°F as far south as San Antonio and kept Omaha lodged below 0°F for more than a solid week. On December 24 of that year, sea level pressure [SLP] soared to 1064 mb [31.42"] at Miles City, Montana. That value remains the highest sea-level-adjusted pressure on record for the contiguous United States.


Figure 1. Sea level pressures near the peak of the December 1983 cold wave, as mapped by the North American Regional Reanalysis. Image credit: Greg Carbin, NOAA.

A few monthly SLP records appear to be within reach this week, especially as the core of high pressure moves across the Northern and Central Plains on Wednesday. Models are projecting SLP to peak above 1050 mb [about 31.01"] across a relatively large area. Weather Underground historian Chris Burt has a comprehensive site listing all-time high-pressure records for many U.S. cities, and NOAA's David Roth has produced maps (in millibars, or mb) depicting the highest January and highest all-time values at many U.S. locations, typically going back to the 1890s (see this map showing the period of record at each site). Among the spots to watch:

Rapid City, South Dakota
Jan. record: 1054.9 mb [31.15"]
All-time record: 1056.2 mb [31.19"]

Des Moines, Iowa
Jan. record: 1051.1 [31.04"]
All-time record: 1051.8 mb [31.06"]

Springfield, Missouri
Jan. and all-time record: 1050.8 mb [31.03"]

If the nation does notch any all-time SLP records this week, it won't be the first time this winter. On December 30, Washington's Seattle-Tacoma Airport reached the highest SLP in its 67-year weather history: 30.87" [1045.5 mb]. Several nearby stations also set impressive marks, as noted by the University of Washington's Cliff Mass in his weather blog.

Ahead of the latest cold surge, an Alberta clipper storm will deliver light to moderate snow across a broad swath of the Midwest into the mid-Atlantic. Toward the weekend, yet another strong zone of high pressure appears set to invade the central and eastern U.S., keeping the bulk of the country free of major winter storms for the time being.

A head-spinning temperature range
Even for an area accustomed to large daily swings in temperature, the Front Range of northeast Colorado experienced a startling surge of warmth on Monday, courtesy of downslope winds feeding into the Midwest clipper storm. After an overnight low of –5°F, Denver International Airport surged to a high of 55°F, making for a diurnal range of 60°F! January is renowned for rapid temperature variations along the east slopes of the Rockies, where downslope winds often scour out Arctic air. The largest 24-hour diurnal spread in U.S. history (103°F, from –54°F to 49°F) was recorded by an NWS cooperative observer in Loma, Montana, on January 14–15, 1972.

AMS Annual Meeting:  Looking ahead to 2040
I'm in Phoenix this week, attending the 95th annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society. For anyone who loves weather and climate, the AMS meeting is a smorgasbord of excellent talks and special events. Each year the meeting opens with a weekend conference and career fair, aimed at college and university students, that's grown by leaps and bounds. There's also a free WeatherFest on Sunday afternoon that draws thousands of weather aficionados of all ages.

The main conference opened on Monday morning with a forward-looking Presidential Forum designed to get attendees pondering what the field of meteorology might look like in the year 2040 and what roles they can play. "In some ways, you might consider this meeting a gateway from the past into the future," said outgoing AMS president Bill Gail. Moderated by UCAR/NOAA postdoctoral research scientist and policy advisor Kim Klockow, the panel discussion included a keynote talk from NOAA administrator Kathryn Sullivan, followed by remarks from University of Nebraska graduate student Curtis Walker, Climate Central meteorologist Bernadette Woods Placky, and Mac Devine, who directs CloudFirst Innovation at IBM.


Figure 2. AMS Presidential Forum panelists (left to right) Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA; Kim Klockow, UCAR/NOAA; Curtis Walker, University of Nebraska–Lincoln; Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central; and Mac Devine, IBM. Photo credit: Bob Henson.

There's no telling exactly what technologies will be coming down the pike 25 years from now. Mobile phones were clunky, high-ticket items in 1990, as Sullivan observed, and Facebook and Twitter were years away from being born. However, the panelists agreed that weather and climate services can and must become more accessible and user-oriented than ever. I was especially struck by Curtis Walker's passion for improving road-weather prediction, given that thousands of Americans still die in weather-related highway accidents each year. It's a heartbreaking toll that we seldom truly ponder, and one that research and technology can go a great way toward reducing.


Figure 3. AMS attendees await the conference kickoff on Monday morning, January 5. Photo credit: Bob Henson.

Bob Henson

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr.Henson.
Thanks Bob Henson and Dr. Jeff Masters.
From BOM

Tropical Pacific waters show signs of cooling

Issued on 6 January 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00


El Nino-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean weakened over the past fortnight, after being close to or exceeding El Nino thresholds for several weeks. Despite this easing, the Bureau's ENSO tracker status remains at El Nino ALERT.
Several indicators have moved back from El Nino thresholds over the past fortnight. Sea surface temperature anomalies have notably cooled by around 0.4 C in the key NINO regions of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, although temperatures still remain above average along much of the equator. Beneath the surface, temperatures have also eased closer to average in many areas. The Southern Oscillation index remains negative, but is not currently at El Nino thresholds as occurred during spring.
Despite the general step back from El Nino levels, trade winds look likely to weaken once again in coming weeks, which in turn may bring some renewed warming of sea surface temperatures. Climate models generally indicate little significant change over the next two to three months, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures persisting in the tropical Pacific Ocean.


Might see some more warming in nino 3.4 over the coming weeks as BOM mentioned due to the tradewinds beginning to reverse over in nino 4 & nino 3.4


There also was a rise one the POAMA enso plume as well giving indications that El-Nino may not appear until Summer or Fall. This model the past couple of months has been trending toward the CFSv2. Notice the upward tick in values as we approach later in Summer.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

MDZ503-504-VAZ030-052>054-501-505-506-061800-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150106T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150106T1800Z/
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-WARREN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...
FRONT ROYAL...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASH BURN
903 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

Quoting 4. washingtonian115:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

MDZ503-504-VAZ030-052>054-501-505-506-061800-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150106T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150106T1800Z/
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-WARREN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...
FRONT ROYAL...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASH BURN
903 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

Definitely warranted. Looking at radar now at a nice band that pivoted through through DC and is moving up north into the suburbs. Glad this is over performing for you guys. I'll be in town for next week potential (if it's still there by then).
Hi Scott, I sure hope we get an El Nino one of these years, but as of now and looking forward into the 2015 hurricane season I don't see one forming until fall at the earliest. I think there is a better change for a La Nina than a Nino, but most likely neutral conditions again this upcoming summer season.
Quoting 5. Drakoen:



Definitely warranted. Looking at radar now at a nice band that pivoted through through DC and is moving up north into the suburbs. Glad this is over performing for you guys. I'll be in town for next week potential (if it's still there by then).

Oh you should have heard people around here on the the radio and news stations practically bragging that nothing was going to happen and a "dusting to a inch is all we'll get".Temperatures look like they'll under perform as well.CWG was one of the only few agencies saying this thing might over perform and that forecast will probably have to be adjusted.

This explains half the problem..
kparc1212
9:23 AM EST
Just read that Loudoun county's new school superintendent worked previously in the VA beach area and in a FLORIDA School system. He has NO CONCEPT of snow or the NO. VA area. He is going to get spanked!
Thank You Mr. Henson. I thought for a half-minute that the Dude in the front row in that pic from the Conference was George Clooney......................................Same hair anyway.
Thanks Mr. Henson!

Does anyone know what weather event happened in 1893 that caused all those record high SLP's as noted in the BeginningOfSLPrecordsDatabase map Mr. Henson linked to?
nice update this will be alright thanks Mr Henson
Quoting 8. washingtonian115:

Oh you should have heard people around here on the the radio and news stations practically bragging that nothing was going to happen and a "dusting to a inch is all we'll get".Temperatures look like they'll under perform as well.CWG was one of the only few agencies saying this thing might over perform and that forecast will probably have to be adjusted.
It took my dad more than half an hour to drive 0.8 miles from home to the main road.
Thanks Bob...
Love the first post, Mr. Henson! A very accessible, expressive, and naturally flowing writing style.

I can only imagine what it must feel like to experience a 100+ degree temperature swing in 24 hours. Mama mia..
Quoting 7. NativeSun:

Hi Scott, I sure hope we get an El Nino one of these years, but as of now and looking forward into the 2015 hurricane season I don't see one forming until fall at the earliest. I think there is a better change for a La Nina than a Nino, but most likely neutral conditions again this upcoming summer season.


Actually the longer we don't get El-Nino the better the chances become that we get one this year. I think we are in for a below average season but that doesn't mean that impacts won't be felt in the US in regards to impacts from Tropical systems
Quoting 5. Drakoen:



Definitely warranted. Looking at radar now at a nice band that pivoted through through DC and is moving up north into the suburbs. Glad this is over performing for you guys. I'll be in town for next week potential (if it's still there by then).

Yeah we just got a surprisingly heavy band of snow late last hour (1"-2" per hour) through the region. People here have been stuck trying to go to work for hours. Now some of them have given up turning around to go back home.
Quoting 8. washingtonian115:

Oh you should have heard people around here on the the radio and news stations practically bragging that nothing was going to happen and a "dusting to a inch is all we'll get".Temperatures look like they'll under perform as well.CWG was one of the only few agencies saying this thing might over perform and that forecast will probably have to be adjusted.

This explains half the problem..
kparc1212
9:23 AM EST
Just read that Loudoun county's new school superintendent worked previously in the VA beach area and in a FLORIDA School system. He has NO CONCEPT of snow or the NO. VA area. He is going to get spanked!


About 15 years ago while living & working in Massachusetts we had a new Office Director who was from Georgia. There was a significant snow storm, such that there was a declared State of Emergency, and the governor was asking all non-essential private-sector workers to stay home. The 'new guy' made the decision it was business-as-usual, and required attendance. My 40-minute commute turned into 2.5 hours, but I made it, along with a handful of others. He was truly flabbergasted that the office was so empty. Later, after talking to some long-time employees he understood he had made a poor decision, and apologized to the office. Maybe the superintendent will learn the same lesson...
Quoting 11. NNYer:

Thanks Mr. Henson!

Does anyone know what weather event happened in 1893 that caused all those record high SLP's as noted in the BeginningOfSLPrecordsDatabase map Mr. Henson linked to?
I'm guessing a conspiracy to begin keeping records.
;0)
Quoting 18. LAbonbon:



About 15 years ago while living & working in Massachusetts we had a new Office Director who was from Georgia. There was a significant snow storm, such that there was a declared State of Emergency, and the governor was asking all non-essential workers private-sector workers to stay home. The 'new guy' made the decision it was business-as-usual, and required attendance. My 40-minute commute turned into 2.5 hours, but I made it, along with a handful of others. He was truly flabbergasted that the office was so empty. Later, after talking to some long-time employees he understood he had made a poor decision, and apologized to the office. Maybe the superintendent will learn the same lesson...
He was just sworn in today.What a way to be introduced to the new area with a snowstorm and disaster everywhere.
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

He was just sworn in today.What a way to be introduced to the new area with a snowstorm and disaster everywhere.


Ohhh, bummer...now I feel badly for the guy...
I hope the Sneaux Levee's Hold.....


: )

Snow has done an excellent job of avoiding me today as with the previous systems.
26. jpsb
Quoting 3. StormTrackerScott:



I am thinking El Nino in 2015. This year was very close (may even have been a mild El Nino year) plus the warm waters are still in the tropical Pacific. Next year you will get your El Nino!
What is amazing is that we just recorded the Warmest year EVER Globally, without a El Nino,

Chew on dat phat awhile.

Quoting 67. barbamz:

With warm European greetings ...

2014 smashes temperature records in Europe
PhysOrg, 12 hours ago
The year 2014 broke a series of heat records in France, Britain, Germany and Belgium, weather agencies reported Monday.
In France, "2014 was the hottest year since 1900," the Meteo-France weather agency said in a statement.
The country's average annual temperature in 2014 was 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal, defined by the long-term average for 1981-2010.
The year 2014 dethroned 2011 as the previous warmest year, which was an average 1.1 C higher than the benchmark.
Meteo-France also pointed to records in Germany and Belgium, saying in both countries the average annual temperature in 2014 was 1.4 C higher than normal.
In Britain, provisional data showed 2014 was the country's warmest year since 1910, according to the Met Office. ...


Met Office confirms 2014 warmest year on record
BBC weather video, 5 January 2015 Last updated at 21:29
Last year is the UK's warmest and fourth wettest year in records dating back to 1910, provisional Met Office figures suggest. Alex Deakin explains.

Australia records third-warmest year in 2014
BBC News, 6 January 2015 Last updated at 06:41 GMT
Quoting 27. Patrap:

What is amazing is that we just recorded the Warmest year EVER Globally, without a El Nino,

Chew on dat phat awhile.


wait till this summers melt season and its disappearing act of arctic ice that's to come
Quoting 28. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till this summers melt season and its disappearing act of arctic ice that's to come


But not until winter unleashes her fury.
Well that was a fun 3 hr, 5 mile drive to work in the snow. You'd think people in the DC area would know at least a little bit about snow driving at this point, especially the part where you can't go up a hill at 2MPH.
Quoting 27. Patrap:

What is amazing is that we just recorded the Warmest year EVER Globally, without a El Nino,

Chew on dat phat awhile.


I wonder if Nino is being thwarted by warming. I will find out what the longest period is between events and see how it measures up to the current.
32. jpsb
Quoting 27. Patrap:

What is amazing is that we just recorded the Warmest year EVER Globally, without a El Nino,

Chew on dat phat awhile.


Quoting 30. 1Zach1:

Well that was a fun 3 hr, 5 mile drive to work in the snow. You'd think people in the DC area would know at least a little bit about snow driving at this point, especially the part where you can't go up a hill at 2MPH.
People in D.C are horrible drivers XD.We have some of the absolute worst in the country.
Quoting 29. tampabaymatt:



But not until winter unleashes her fury.
she best hurry only 75 days of winter remain
Quoting 26. jpsb:


I am thinking El Nino in 2015. This year was very close (may even have been a mild El Nino year) plus the warm waters are still in the tropical Pacific. Next year you will get your El Nino!


The question is when El Nino is declared if is going to be traditional or Modoki. Right now it would be Modoki but is a long road ahead.

Here is today's GFS Conus jet model...............Look at those wind speeds as noted by Mr. Henson:

37. jpsb
Quoting 28. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till this summers melt season and its disappearing act of arctic ice that's to come

Arctic ice? Did someone say Arctic ice?
:)
Quoting 32. jpsb:




Please, Spencer is a nut..as well as that er, "Graph thingee" sport.

LoL

meanwhile in the deep south the melt is in full swing with 2 months of melt to go
Back in the real World of Science,,,

Quoting 60. JohnLonergan:

One picture is worth 10000 words



Click to enlarge
#closefcps is trending on twitter in U.S and worldwide XD.This will be a very huge eye opener for the school board.Snow next week is possible as well....
42. jpsb
Quoting 36. weathermanwannabe:

Here is today's GFS Conus jet model...............Look at those wind speeds as noted by Mr. Henson:




Anytime a deep, cold air mass moves into the mid-latitudes, a strong jet stream forms above the transition zone between warm and cold air masses. That’s not unusual for this time of year, but the current situation will lead to an unusually strong, 260 mph jet stream on the jet traffic route from the U.S. to Europe.

This means that jets flying to Europe on Thursday could see ground speeds in excess of 800 mph (900 mph for a 747), which is faster than the speed of sound at sea level, 760 mph.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/
Quoting 37. jpsb:


Arctic ice? Did someone say Arctic ice?
:)

I say to you this day it matters not for its almost mid winter show me that in mid sept I think you will be in for a rude awakening when there will be next to nothing for ice in the sea watch wait see
Quoting 42. jpsb:



Anytime a deep, cold air mass moves into the mid-latitudes, a strong jet stream forms above the transition zone between warm and cold air masses. That’s not unusual for this time of year, but the current situation will lead to an unusually strong, 260 mph jet stream on the jet traffic route from the U.S. to Europe.

This means that jets flying to Europe on Thursday could see ground speeds in excess of 800 mph (900 mph for a 747), which is faster than the speed of sound at sea level, 760 mph.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/


U show me a Commercial Passenger Jet that is going to Break the Speed of Sound and I'll eat my Blog, without water.

45. jpsb
And at an all time high for this date

Hey, jpsb...How come you NEVER link in the actuals sport?

They EASY to find on a REAL Science site ya know?

NSIDC

The question is when El Nino is declared if is going to be traditional or Modoki. Right now it would be Modoki but is a long road ahead.


a traditional modoki....would also see region 4 cooler.........
Quoting 44. Patrap:



U show me a Commercial Passenger Jet that is going to Break the Speed of Sound and I'll eat my Blog, without water.



Actually it did happen on that classic Twilight Zone episode with the plane that broke the sound barrier and ended up flying over New York with dinosaurs roaming around Manhattan while tying to land at Idlewild...Then it came back for a second pass and ended up over the 1939 World's Fair....................................... .. :)


Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

#closefcps is trending on twitter in U.S and worldwide XD.This will be a very huge eye opener for the school board.Snow next week is possible as well....
LOL!!
52. jpsb
Quoting 40. Patrap:

Back in the real World of Science,,,


RSS (best modern temp set in existence) also did not record 2014 as warmest ever, 8th or 9th IIRC. Satellites are really the only good data sets since they measure almost the entire globe almost continuously.
nws upped dc area snowfall now to 2-4 inches and blustery
Quoting jpsb:
Try this truth-packed version:

good morning from sunny el paso....cold of 26 as i left the house this morning......warming to the high 50's this afternoon......cold front passes through tomorrow.....bringing a 10 percent chance of freezing rain....sleet...or snow
Quoting 44. Patrap:



U show me a Commercial Passenger Jet that is going to Break the Speed of Sound and I'll eat my Blog, without water.




On one of my flights from the US to the UK we made it over in something like 6.5 hours, the Captain said it was because of a 150 mph tail wind from the jetstream. We barely had time to eat dinner before we landed, the Flight Attendants were rushing around to get the plane ready for landing.
Arctic vs. Antarctic

Sea ice differs between the Arctic and Antarctic, primarily because of their different geography. The Arctic is a semi-enclosed ocean, almost completely surrounded by land. As a result, the sea ice that forms in the Arctic is not as mobile as sea ice in the Antarctic. Although sea ice moves around the Arctic basin, it tends to stay in the cold Arctic waters. Floes are more prone to converge, or bump into each other, and pile up into thick ridges. These converging floes makes Arctic ice thicker. The presence of ridge ice and its longer life cycle leads to ice that stays frozen longer during the summer melt. So some Arctic sea ice remains through the summer and continues to grow the following autumn. Of the 15 million square kilometers (5.8 million square miles) of sea ice that exist during winter, on average, 7 million square kilometers (2.7 million square miles) remain at the end of the summer melt season.




The Antarctic is almost a geographic opposite of the Arctic, because Antarctica is a land mass surrounded by an ocean. The open ocean allows the forming sea ice to move more freely, resulting in higher drift speeds. However, Antarctic sea ice forms ridges much less often than sea ice in the Arctic. Also, because there is no land boundary to the north, the sea ice is free to float northward into warmer waters where it eventually melts. As a result, almost all of the sea ice that forms during the Antarctic winter melts during the summer. During the winter, up to 18 million square kilometers (6.9 million square miles) of ocean is covered by sea ice, but by the end of summer, only about 3 million square kilometers (1.1 million square miles) of sea ice remain.

THICKNESS

Because sea ice does not stay in the Antarctic as long as it does in the Arctic, it does not have the opportunity to grow as thick as sea ice in the Arctic. While thickness varies significantly within both regions, Antarctic ice is typically 1 to 2 meters (3 to 6 feet) thick, while most of the Arctic is covered by sea ice 2 to 3 meters (6 to 9 feet) thick. Some Arctic regions are covered with ice that is 4 to 5 meters (12 to 15 feet) thick.

PATTERNS OF ICE EXTENT

The above images reveal another notable difference in sea ice. The pattern of Antarctic maximum sea ice is roughly symmetric around the pole, forming a circle around Antarctica. In contrast, the Arctic is asymmetric, with much more ice in some longitudes than others. For example, sea ice off the eastern coast of Canada extends south of Newfoundland to 50 degrees north latitude, and ice off the eastern coast of Russian extends to Bohai Bay, China, at about 38 degrees north latitude. Conversely, in western Europe, the northern coast of Norway at 70 degrees north latitude (2,000 kilometers, or 1,243 miles, farther north than Newfoundland or Japan) generally remains ice-free. Ocean currents and winds explain these differences.

In the Antarctic, the currents and winds tend to flow without interruption around the continent in a west-to-east direction, acting like a barricade to warmer air and water to the north. In contrast, the Arctic region north of the Atlantic Ocean is open to the warmer waters from the south, because of the way the ocean currents flow. These warmer waters can flow into the Arctic and prevent sea ice from forming in the North Atlantic. The waters off the eastern coasts of Canada and Russia are affected by cold air moving off the land from the west. The eastern Canadian coast is also fed by southward-flowing cold water currents that make it easier for sea ice to grow.

SNOW COVER OVER SEA ICE

Because the Arctic Ocean is mostly covered by ice and surrounded by land, precipitation is relatively rare. Snowfall tends to be low, except near the ice edge. Antarctica, however, is entirely surrounded by ocean, so moisture is more readily available. Antarctic sea ice tends to be covered by thicker snow, which may accumulate to the point that the weight of snow pushes the ice below sea level, causing the snow to become flooded by salty ocean waters.

OTHER DIFFERENCES

Antarctic sea ice does not reach the South Pole, extending only to about 75 degrees south latitude (in the Ross and Weddell Seas), because of the Antarctic continent. However, Arctic sea ice can extend all the way to the North Pole. Here, the Arctic sea ice receives less solar energy at the surface because the sun's rays strike at a more oblique angle, compared to lower latitudes.

Water from the Pacific Ocean and several rivers in Russia and Canada provide fresher, less dense water to the Arctic Ocean. So the Arctic Ocean has a layer of cold, fresh water near the surface with warmer, saltier water below. This cold, fresh water layer typically allows more ice growth in the Arctic than the Antarctic.

VARIATIONS IN EXTENT

Both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent are characterized by fairly large variations from year to year. The monthly average extent can vary by as much as 1 million square kilometers (386,102 square miles) from the year-to-year monthly average. In some months, the trends in Antarctic ice extent are statistically significant at the 95% level, although small.

According to scientific measurements, both the thickness and extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic have shown a dramatic decline over the past thirty years. This is consisistent with observations of a warming Arctic. This trend is a major sign of climate change in the polar regions and may be an indicator of the effects of global warming. (See Trends in the Environment section).

For more information on current sea ice conditions see the Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis Web page. To read NSIDC press releases on recent Arctic sea ice minima, see the Arctic Sea Ice Press Announcements Archive on the Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis Web page.


Quoting jpsb:

Arctic ice? Did someone say Arctic ice?
:)
>
Glad you brought that up. Did you know that both Arctic sea ice extent and area are lower than they were on this date in 2012, year of the record meltout?

The more you know...
Quoting 30. 1Zach1:

Well that was a fun 3 hr, 5 mile drive to work in the snow. You'd think people in the DC area would know at least a little bit about snow driving at this point, especially the part where you can't go up a hill at 2MPH.
my cousin up there says a lot of accidents on the roadways up there..people slidding into one another...maybe its best to go slower on the roadways
Quoting 55. ricderr:

good morning from sunny el paso....cold of 26 as i left the house this morning......warming to the high 50's this afternoon......cold front passes through tomorrow.....bringing a 10 percent chance of freezing rain....sleet...or snow
current conditions


Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 13 sec ago


Overcast

Overcast


13.8 °F

Feels Like 5 °F
61. jpsb
Quoting 44. Patrap:



U show me a Commercial Passenger Jet that is going to Break the Speed of Sound and I'll eat my Blog, without water.




Some people are very difficult to communicate with. I suggest you google GROUND SPEED before continuing this conversation :)
Gonna have to put up the plants for the incoming arctic chill Thursday morning here in SE TX. Mid to upper 20s possibly, still lil early to pin it down. This will be a convective freeze not a radiational freeze, all tender plants will be wiped out.
Quoting 51. Tornado6042008X:

LOL!!
These people are raising hell.But its also up to the parents to send there kids to school or not.Glad I didn't.I saw a ambulance truck going up the street not to far from me.18 students are in the hospital this morning while going to school in fair fax county...
Quoting 56. MahFL:



One one of my flights from the US to the UK we made it over in something like 6.5 hours, the Captain said it was because of a 150 mph tail wind from the jetstream. We barely had time to eat dinner before we landed, the Flight Attendants were rushing around to get the plane ready for landing.


I was in the USMC Air Wing and I can assure you your Commercial Flight by a following Jet Stream, though aided aloft in Ground speed,did NOT reach The Speed of Sound.

There have been at least two cases where a commercial jetliner flew at supersonic speed by accident during commercial service. In both cases it was the result of an upset and resulted in damage to the aircraft.

Probably the most famous case is China Airlines flight 006 in 1985 where aBoeing 747SP recovered from an upset and landed safely but with the wings permanently bent and bits of the tail missing. Full accident report here: China Airlines B747SP Loss of Power and Inflight Upset

In 1979 a Boeing 727, TWA flight 841, is also thought to have been briefly supersonic during the recovery from an upset. TWA Flight 841 (1979)


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
903 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-505-506-508-VAZ026-029-039- 040-051-502-507-
061800-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150106T1800Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-CULPE PER-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...
CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELL ICOTT CITY...
ABERDEEN...HARRISONBURG...CULPEPER...BIG MEADOWS
903 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES...ISOLATED 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
UNDER THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

* TIMING...UNTIL 1 PM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE THROUGH 11 AM.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATING ON SURFACES WELL BELOW FREEZING
WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Quoting 54. Neapolitan:

Try this truth-packed version:



More tropical lower atmospheric variation, but trend of RSS is like that of GISS, HadCrut. Attention to RSS etc though, they are not exactly surface temps.
Quoting 61. jpsb:



Some people are very difficult to communicate with. I suggest you google GROUND SPEED before continuing this conversation :)



O da irony, it do burn bright and Hot.

68. jpsb
Quoting 44. Patrap:



U show me a Commercial Passenger Jet that is going to Break the Speed of Sound and I'll eat my Blog, without water.




Douglas Passenger Jet Breaks Sound Barrier
Quoting 44. Patrap:



U show me a Commercial Passenger Jet that is going to Break the Speed of Sound and I'll eat my Blog, without water.




Ground speed and air speed are not the same thing, if the air you are flying in is already moving at 260 mph towards your destination you get there a lot quicker.
National Weather Service New Orleans la
802 am CST Tuesday Jan 6 2015



Sounding discussion...
12z sounding had no issues on this frosty morning. Very smooth
flight that terminated at a very high 5... miles up over
Henderson Camp Road south of Grand Bay Alabama about 90 miles east
of launch. Very dry sounding throughout with two distinct surface
based inversions...a drainage component only about 250 feet deep and
the somewhat deeper Arctic inversion at 1400 feet. A 0.0c surface
temperature at launch warms to 14c/57f at 860mb or about 4600ft.
Precipitable water has lowered to 0.18 inches. Wind profile shows
calm wind at the surface but SW-northwest flow throughout...increasing
with height from 10 knots just off the surface to a peak of 255/98kt
at 48.2kft. A double tropopause structure as well with primary at
149mb with a temperature of -71... secondary tropopause at 77mb with a temperature
of -75.2c. 24/rr

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 354 am CST Tuesday Jan 6 2015/

.Coldest airmass of the season on the way...

Short term...it has been a quiet and cool night. By 08z most
locations along and north of the 10/12 corridor were in the upper
20s to middle 30s while south of that line temperatures ranged from as low as
the middle 30s to lower 40s(along the immediate southshore) or even
upper 40s right on the sela coast.

First surge of cold air has already been impacting the region but
this is just the beginning. The eastern Continental U.S. L/west trough and West Coast
ridge will become more amplified over the next 18-24 hours and this
will usher in a significant Arctic airmass south into the high and
northern plains beginning this evening. First though today...we will still
have our first airmass keeping the region cold and dry. H925 temperatures
are actually going to be around 9-11c but this is a rather shallow
airmass and we will only mix out to around h975-h95. Temperatures at those
levels are quite a bit cooler and thus why the afternoon highs today are
only expected to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s. As for tonight
temperatures will be a touch warmer just ahead of our Arctic airmass but
still on the cool side.

Wednesday through Thursday will likely be the coldest temperatures we have seen since
our brief cold spell in Nov. The airmass will likely already be on
our doorstep by sunrise. Ll temperatures will drop through the day but a
brief warmup from morning lows till midday will allow the region to
get into the upper 40s to near 50. If the airmass is any faster then
these temperatures are likely too warm and could mean an even colder Wednesday
night than what we are going to forecast. Speaking of Wednesday night much
colder and drier air will be moving in through the evening hours and by
12z dewpoints could be below zero with h925 temperatures around -5 to -8c.
Combine that with likely clear skies and we are looking at the
coldest night of the season. The only negative aspect with respect
to cooling will be winds. Winds will not decouple but they generally
dont with these strong cold Arctic airmasses. That said will not go
as cold as the mav and Euro MOS values which if correct suggest low
teens for southwestern MS. With temperatures fcsted in the upper teens to lower 20s
for the northern half of the County Warning Area we have gone ahead with a hard freeze
watch. /Cab/

Long term...medium range models suggest we will remain on the cool
side with rain chances increasing once again later this weekend.
Moisture starts to return Friday and if moisture can return fast enough
there is a small chance of freezing precipitation over northern portions of the
County Warning Area. If we see any it looks most likely to be light freezing rain.
That said as dry as the airmass will be it will likely take a while
to moisten up enough to allow for anything to reach the ground.

The middle level will quickly transition from nwrly Thursday night to southwesterly
Sat morning. This will further increase the moisture over the region
and as a short wave works NE out of Mexico and Texas rain chances will
increase late Sat and more so sun and persisting into Monday. Heading
into next week things will quiet down again as the short wave pulls away and
the next cold airmass tries to push down into the region. /Cab/
current conditions


Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 13 sec ago


Overcast

Overcast


13.8 °F

Feels Like 5 °F



i'll gladly take our temps....crisp in the morning....nice in the afternoon....your temps are bone chilling
Quoting 69. MahFL:



Ground speed and air speed are not the same thing, if the air you are flying in is already moving at 260 mph towards your destination you get there a lot quicker.


Thanx, Im well aware of the added and time involved. It was Pre flight school stuff, easily.
Quoting cRRKampen:

More tropical lower atmospheric variation, but trend of RSS is like that of GISS, HadCrut. Attention to RSS etc though, they are not exactly surface temps.
My point was that showing Spencer's horizontally-elongated version of the UAH data set without the accompanying trendlines that show clear warming is an attempt to hid the incline, so to speak.
Quoting 73. Neapolitan:

My point was that showing Spencer's horizontally-elongated version of the UAH data set without the accompanying trendlines that show clear warming is an attempt to hid the incline, so to speak.

Yes, I see, having viewed the entire thread by now.
To be sure, I didn't want to mention UAH or Spencer. Of course. But that is not RSS.
76. jpsb
Quoting 68. jpsb:



Douglas Passenger Jet Breaks Sound Barrier


In case somebody missed this here is the relavent text

Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. - The Douglas Aircraft Company has broken yet another record with its DC-8 aircraft. Earlier today, during a routine certification test flight, Douglas Chief Pilot Bill Magruder flew the aircraft faster than the speed of sound, making the DC-8 the first Commercial Jet Transport to break the sound barrier.

link is at 68
Quoting 76. jpsb:



In case somebody miss this here is the relavent text

Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. - The Douglas Aircraft Company has broken yet another record with its DC-8 aircraft. Earlier today, during a routine certification test flight, Douglas Chief Pilot Bill Magruder flew the aircraft faster than the speed of sound, making the DC-8 the first Commercial Jet Transport to break the sound barrier.

link is at 68


He also went inverted at a showing too...during a barrel roll.



So what is yer point?

You come in always like a prophet of truth or something?

For what, to overturn AGW theory?

Thats a game only you are keeping score at.

Others are actually delivering science, like the author and new Blogger Mr. Henson.

Actual experts in their relevant career choices.

If you wanna play Jeopardy with me, feel free in Dr. Roods too.

U dont seem to lurk in the actual wu Climate entry.
Quoting 53. LargoFl:

nws upped dc area snowfall now to 2-4 inches and blustery


I had 3-4" when I left for work. Advised kids to not shovel it till it stopped because there is melting underneath and the snow is insulating it. Once exposed, the melt will freeze.

Baltimore CO (daughter) and PG CO (sons) schools closed this morning. A real relief for this parent!

Roads are snow covering melt where undisturbed, and snow covering ice where plowed or traveled significantly. This is deceptively and dangerously slippery and I was very careful driving to work this morning. Temps are in the mid 20s and I expect ice to persist all day until HEAVILY treated or removed. This makes tomorrow morning's school commute an issue too.
4,2 inches here at my house.The U.S Capital got 3.5,White house 2.9 and I think DCA got almost 2 and a half inches.
Looks like a Rainy Sunday across FL. Even SW FL should get in on the action with this upcoming event.


Quoting 48. weathermanwannabe:


Actually it did happen on that classic Twilight Zone episode with the plane that broke the sound barrier and ended up flying over New York with dinosaurs roaming around Manhattan while tying to land at Idlewild...Then it came back for a second pass and ended up over the 1939 World's Fair....................................... .. :)





Seems odd since the physics of supersonic flight were well known prior to the creation of the Twilight Zone?.
Even in the 50s, people knew better than that.
82. bwi
Clipper overperformed in the DC area. Best commute ever!
Making sense of Antarctic sea ice changes

December 9, 2014 Dr. Eric Steig

Antarctic sea ice is one of those things in the climate system that seems to confuse people. Antarctic sea ice, on average, is increasing. How can there be global warming if sea ice is increasing in the Antarctic? Some have gone so far as to average the Arctic sea ice loss with the Antarctica sea ice gains, and imply that globally sea ice isn’t changing. That’s just silly. Even so, it’s fair to say that most of the popular explanations for Antarctic sea ice expansion haven’t been very convincing.

In this essay, I’ll try to explain where the confusion about Antarctic sea ice changes comes from, and to highlight a few recent papers in the scientific literature that add important new clarity to the picture. The bottom line is that scientific understanding Antarctic sea ice trends is actually pretty solid.


Read full article here.
For continuity it was Tex Johnston in the 707 Dash 80 who went inverted with a Barrel Roll.


60 years ago when it was a prototype.


Quoting 81. georgevandenberghe:



Seems odd since the physics of supersonic flight were well known prior to the creation of the Twilight Zone?.
Even in the 50s, people knew better than that.



And our time period brought us Sharknado...
Quoting 44. Patrap:



U show me a Commercial Passenger Jet that is going to Break the Speed of Sound and I'll eat my Blog, without water.



You missed the different specialty SSTs of the 70s and 80s. You are right about other commercial jets.

The Concorde operated at well above the speed of sound over the Atlantic. Russia had a similar SST.. Tupelov "something". Boeing scrapped its plans for one in the early 70s.
Quoting 85. LAbonbon:



And our time period brought us Sharknado...


Point, set and match. Yer right. Touche!
Quoting 84. Patrap:

For continuity it was Tex Johnston in the 707 Dash 80 who went inverted with a Barrel Roll.


60 years ago when it was a prototype.






There are OLD pilots and there are BOLD pilots but there are no OLD BOLD pilots.
Updated snow totals.

US CAPITOL 4.0 1002 AM 1/06 BROADCAST MEDIA
1 NW NATIONAL ZOO 3.5 1012 AM 1/06 PUBLIC
1 NNE THE WHITE HOUS 2.9 930 AM 1/06 PUBLIC
1 NE AMERICAN UNIVER 2.5 908 AM 1/06 BROADCAST MEDIA
Link
Quoting 85. LAbonbon:



And our time period brought us Sharknado...


And the I-Phone 6, plus lately, I hear Kanye West found a new talent, some Guy named Paul McCartney. Seems he is also a Beetle Scientist or sumthing too.
Quoting 72. Patrap:



Thanx, Im well aware of the added and time involved. It was Pre flight school stuff, easily.


When flying to/from Europe it usually takes an hour or two longer to get FROM there to IAD than it does from IAD to there esp. in winter when I seem to always have to go.
Quoting 89. washingtonian115:

Updated snow totals.

US CAPITOL 4.0 1002 AM 1/06 BROADCAST MEDIA
1 NW NATIONAL ZOO 3.5 1012 AM 1/06 PUBLIC
1 NNE THE WHITE HOUS 2.9 930 AM 1/06 PUBLIC
1 NE AMERICAN UNIVER 2.5 908 AM 1/06 BROADCAST MEDIA
Link


I bet areas around the Mall, especially some of the monuments, are really pretty about now.
Quoting 79. washingtonian115:

4,2 inches here at my house.The U.S Capital got 3.5,White house 2.9 and I think DCA got almost 2 and a half inches.
3.7-3.8" of snow here.
Dang it. Was going to post a picture of a really cool lake-effect mesoscale feature with an eye-like radar presentation that appeared this morning near Buffalo. I'm not one with the internets, though, so can't actually get the image to post. Maybe someone else can post it? Here's the link. (at least I can do that)

95. jpsb
Quoting 77. Patrap:



He also went inverted at a showing too...during a barrel roll.




Actually no, that is a Boeing 707 not a DC-8, but thanking for playing and better luck next time.
Quoting 88. georgevandenberghe:




There are OLD pilots and there are BOLD pilots but there are no OLD BOLD pilots.



The one who pulled Dr. Master's and that whole NOAA Hurricane Hunter flight out of Hugo's eyewall was bout as close as one can get. Flameout, 2 engine out, upset airframe, 6 g's, rapid descent from 10K to 500ft.


Yup those Majors can do dat.


Published on Aug 5, 2014
AVIA Documentary : Into The Hurricane Hugo | The Plane In The Air

AircraftAccident Investigation: Hurricane Hugo jolted the aircraft caused engine fail

During Hurricane Hugo on 15 September 1989, a Lockheed WP-3D Orion was intercepting the hurricane over the Caribbean islands when strong winds jolted the aircraft and caused an engine to fail. The pilots managed to make an emergency landing

Jeff Masters has a written account of this:

"In September of 1989, a NOAA hurricane hunter airplane intercepted Hurricane Hugo as it approached the Caribbean islands, just before Hugo's destructive rampage through the Caribbean and South Carolina. The crew of the airplane were the first people to encounter the mighty hurricane--and very nearly became its first victims. The mission remains the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters. I served as flight meteorologist on that flight, and feel fortunate indeed to be able to tell the story."

— Dr. Jeff Masters (Chief Meteorologist, Weather Underground, Inc.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1bx...








Quoting 11. NNYer:

Thanks Mr. Henson!

Does anyone know what weather event happened in 1893 that caused all those record high SLP's as noted in the BeginningOfSLPrecordsDatabase map Mr. Henson linked to?


Huge Arctic Outbreak over most of the U.S. Much worse than our current one. Coldest Christmas day of record for many locations.
Quoting 92. LAbonbon:



I bet areas around the Mall, especially some of the monuments, are really pretty about now.
Yes they are :).A co-worker of mine sent me a picture of the monument and U.S Capital from earlier this morning.A very pretty scene indeed.
Tornado6042008X
Now hopefully we can get a interesting storm next week that won' be to far south and we miss out.
Thanks for the blog & Welcome to Wunderground Bob Henson:)

Washington, DC Wundercam
Quoting 95. jpsb:



Actually no, that is a Boeing 707 not a DC-8, but thanking for playing and better luck next time.


Well apparently yer observational skills missed # 84 sport.

Good luck the rest of yer Senior year too.

: P
101. MahFL
Quoting 80. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like a Rainy Sunday across FL. Even SW FL should get in on the action with this upcoming event.


Oh an event !
Quoting 78. georgevandenberghe:



I had 3-4" when I left for work. Advised kids to not shovel it till it stopped because there is melting underneath and the snow is insulating it. Once exposed, the melt will freeze.

Baltimore CO (daughter) and PG CO (sons) schools closed this morning. A real relief for this parent!

Roads are snow covering melt where undisturbed, and snow covering ice where plowed or traveled significantly. This is deceptively and dangerously slippery and I was very careful driving to work this morning. Temps are in the mid 20s and I expect ice to persist all day until HEAVILY treated or removed. This makes tomorrow morning's school commute an issue too.

good my cousin up there said there were a lot of accidents,people sliding into one another on his way to work..snow surely can conceal the ice underneath.
Quoting 94. JazzChi:

Dang it. Was going to post a picture of a really cool lake-effect mesoscale feature with an eye-like radar presentation that appeared this morning near Buffalo. I'm not one with the internets, though, so can't actually get the image to post. Maybe someone else can post it? Here's the link. (at least I can do that)



Hi There! First Post - lurker x 5 years. Retired Navy P-3 aviator, now run a small family farm north of Leesburg VA. Great discussion this AM on DC snow driving and school board decisions to not close. Here is the mea culpa from Loudoun County's Board of Education.

"LCPS Decision to Keep Schools Open

We apologize for the difficulties the weather caused this morning. After careful consideration of all available information, including advanced weather forecasts and real-time monitoring of road conditions across the county, LCPS made an early morning decision to keep schools open Tuesday, January 6th.

Clearly, the conditions became far worse than anticipated. Students are safest at school when parents have not had a chance to make alternate plans for their child's return home. At this time, we are planning to dismiss schools at their normal dismissal time. However, all after-school activities are cancelled for this afternoon and evening.

LCPS regrets any confusion or stress today’s decisions may have caused. Student and staff safety remains our top priority and policy and procedures around closure and delay decision-making will be reviewed and enhanced using lessons learned today. "

2" of powder snow here in Lucketts.
Quoting 103. TropicalAnalystwx13:





Much obliged!
Quoting 101. MahFL:



Oh an event !



Looks like it's going to be nasty. Flooding may be a concern.
Quoting 106. tampabaymatt:




Looks like it's going to be nasty. Flooding may be a concern.


Never said that. I said it is going to be rainy on Sunday. Totals look to be around an inch. Stratiform rain event.

Funny same day same trolls and they wonder why their post are hardly viewed!
109. jpsb
Quoting 100. Patrap:



Well apparently yer observational skills missed # 84 sport.

Good luck the rest of yer Senior year too.

: P


I am curious what a 707 doing a roll has to do with a DC-8 (deliberately) breaking the sound barrier, something I though you said would/could never happen. Oh well never mind, time for lunch. Bye for now.
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1131 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

MDZ503-504-VAZ030-052>054-501-505-506-061800-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150106T1800Z/
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-WARREN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...
FRONT ROYAL...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...ASH BURN
1131 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...LOW 20S.

* WINDS...VARIABLE 5 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING ON ALL SURFACES WELL BELOW
FREEZING AND VISIBILITY BELOW HALF MILE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.



Quoting 104. FarmerKarl:

Hi There! First Post - lurker x 5 years. Retired Navy P-3 aviator, now run a small family farm north of Leesburg VA. Great discussion this AM on DC snow driving and school board decisions to not close. Here is the mea culpa from Loudoun County's Board of Education.

"LCPS Decision to Keep Schools Open

We apologize for the difficulties the weather caused this morning. After careful consideration of all available information, including advanced weather forecasts and real-time monitoring of road conditions across the county, LCPS made an early morning decision to keep schools open Tuesday, January 6th.

Clearly, the conditions became far worse than anticipated. Students are safest at school when parents have not had a chance to make alternate plans for their child's return home. At this time, we are planning to dismiss schools at their normal dismissal time. However, all after-school activities are cancelled for this afternoon and evening.

LCPS regrets any confusion or stress today’s decisions may have caused. Student and staff safety remains our top priority and policy and procedures around closure and delay decision-making will be reviewed and enhanced using lessons learned today. "

2" of powder snow here in Lucketts.
Advanced weather forecasts?

Hi-resolution models showed at least moderate bands working into the DC area in the morning from yesterday, as I had mentioned on here.
Quoting MahFL:


Oh an event !


I won't believe it until I see it. The last "event" was supposed to give us a couple inches and we didn't see a drop.
With the last system (the one that gave a ton of rain to the Panhandle), it had a solid line of storms just south of Tampa and in the GOM but everything dissipated or went right around us.

41 days with only .05" of rain here in Fort Myers.

Quoting 108. StormTrackerScott:



Never said that. I said it is going to be rainy on Sunday. Totals look to be around an inch. Stratiform rain event.

Funny same day same trolls and they wonder why their post are hardly viewed!


We're really going to have to worry about flooding with this next rain event. The ground and waterways are so saturated from the numerous heavy rain events FL has endured recently, there is nowhere else for the water to go. I expect numerous flood warnings to be issued by the NWS when this next heavy rain event occurs on Sunday.
...BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...

.AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL INVADE ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...BRISK NORTH WINDS
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ZERO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALZ011>015-017>050-062300-
/O.NEW.KBMX.HZ.W.0001.150108T0300Z-150108T1500Z/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH -CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SH ELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY- BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA- LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR -
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALO OSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABA STER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...R OANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MA RION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN. ..SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
406 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM
CST THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 8 TO 14 DEGREE RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 AND IN THE 14 TO 18 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH OF I-20.

* WIND CHILLS...IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING
FALLING TO NEAR ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE CONDITIONS CAN LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
15 DEGREES OR LOWER.

THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CAN LEAD TO
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE. WEAR LAYERED CLOTHING AND COVER EXPOSED
SKIN. COVER YOUR HEAD WITH A HAT.

TO PREVENT FREEZING AND POSSIBLE BURSTING OF OUTDOOR WATER
PIPES...PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED...DRAINED...OR ALLOWED TO DRIP
SLOWLY. THOSE THAT HAVE IN-GROUND SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD DRAIN
THEIR SYSTEMS...OR COVER ANY ABOVE-GROUND PIPES TO PROTECT THEM
FROM FREEZING.

OUTDOOR PETS SHOULD BE PROVIDED A WARM PLACE TO SHELTER.


$$
Quoting 111. Drakoen:


Advanced weather forecasts?

Hi-resolution models showed at least moderate bands working into the DC area in the morning from yesterday, as I had mentioned on here.



Yeah I concur. I also thought it was going to be bad this morning in the DC metro area and am thankful our counties (in MD) closed.
Quoting 104. FarmerKarl:

Hi There! First Post - lurker x 5 years. Retired Navy P-3 aviator, now run a small family farm north of Leesburg VA. Great discussion this AM on DC snow driving and school board decisions to not close. Here is the mea culpa from Loudoun County's Board of Education.

"LCPS Decision to Keep Schools Open

We apologize for the difficulties the weather caused this morning. After careful consideration of all available information, including advanced weather forecasts and real-time monitoring of road conditions across the county, LCPS made an early morning decision to keep schools open Tuesday, January 6th.

Clearly, the conditions became far worse than anticipated. Students are safest at school when parents have not had a chance to make alternate plans for their child's return home. At this time, we are planning to dismiss schools at their normal dismissal time. However, all after-school activities are cancelled for this afternoon and evening.

LCPS regrets any confusion or stress today’s decisions may have caused. Student and staff safety remains our top priority and policy and procedures around closure and delay decision-making will be reviewed and enhanced using lessons learned today. "

2" of powder snow here in Lucketts.

Hi! Glad to see a new member!
Quoting 113. tampabaymatt:



We're really going to have to worry about flooding with this next rain event. The ground and waterways are so saturated from the numerous heavy rain events FL has endured recently, there is nowhere else for the water to go. I expect numerous flood warnings to be issued by the NWS when this next heavy rain event occurs on Sunday.
good point, im so glad my city has been renewing and enlarging its storm drain system last year or so..money well spent I think.
freeze is coming way down south huh.......................................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

...A HARD FREEZE MAY IMPACT MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND BRINGS THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES MAY IMPACT MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

120. jpsb
Quoting 43. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I say to you this day it matters not for its almost mid winter show me that in mid sept I think you will be in for a rude awakening when there will be next to nothing for ice in the sea watch wait see


Across the Northwest Passage: The Larsen Expeditions
Quoting 104. FarmerKarl:

Hi There! First Post - lurker x 5 years. Retired Navy P-3 aviator, now run a small family farm north of Leesburg VA. Great discussion this AM on DC snow driving and school board decisions to not close. Here is the mea culpa from Loudoun County's Board of Education.

"LCPS Decision to Keep Schools Open

We apologize for the difficulties the weather caused this morning. After careful consideration of all available information, including advanced weather forecasts and real-time monitoring of road conditions across the county, LCPS made an early morning decision to keep schools open Tuesday, January 6th.

Clearly, the conditions became far worse than anticipated. Students are safest at school when parents have not had a chance to make alternate plans for their child's return home. At this time, we are planning to dismiss schools at their normal dismissal time. However, all after-school activities are cancelled for this afternoon and evening.

LCPS regrets any confusion or stress today’s decisions may have caused. Student and staff safety remains our top priority and policy and procedures around closure and delay decision-making will be reviewed and enhanced using lessons learned today. "

2" of powder snow here in Lucketts.

Oh god.

Is it really that hard to admit "I screwed up" as opposed to simply pushing the blame onto weather forecasts? The NWS office in Sterling said in their Winter Weather Advisory last night, "snow accumulating on surfaces below freezing will make for very hazardous travel conditions." They posted on Facebook that "snow will overspread the area this morning, with the most intense snow expected during the morning rush hour." Their official forecast called for 1-3" for DC as a best guess, but they noted in their AFD this morning that "there is also a concern for banding precipitation that could cause locally higher amounts of snow across portions of northern Maryland...northern Virginia...and eastern West Virginia." This mistake falls in the hands of the school board, not the NWS, as usual.
SPC has made the 2015 summary section and so far this severe weather season has begun active.





2015 summary
Did I miss Pat eating his own blog?? Can someone post the video? ;)

Meanwhile, it's been a dusting of snow here in NYC since early morning, but it seems to be coming down in denser flakes now.. The slight dusting is now a coating. I doubt we're even at 1/2 inch though. Sure is pretty to look at.
124. vis0
bad luck on all; 3 image sites i use) had 3 VIDs of NYC before during & sun shining w/snow still falling as its not a "thick" system
24st 8th ave looking eastward, 09'36'11 EDT
ml-d hard at work, NOT just a big stack/chimney on public housing building,  09'36'55EDT
real leggo style building on 23rd st 2 blocks east of big Lego store, 10'11'22EDT
Sars point fix small, large will follow.  If all blocks salted JUST THEIR area of the sidewalk they would not be a mess & no falling  people. Recorded 3 falling (stopped video taping immediately helped all 3, though found out later the cam stayed ON by accident as i helped) 2 very bad-head hits
Sars point fix small, large will follow....see previous img.
Sun , still snowing even now 2 hrs later really weren't clouds sun shined like this for 40 mins no in & out of clouds like a snow fog, 10'20'22 EDT
sun, notice that black circle, READ ITS TXT...remember we get GCS FIRST , I STATE WE SEE SCHIZO WEATHER AS NATURE IN TRYING GOES HAYWIRE, its a window OF OPPORTUNITY TO start doing now  then real warming only WARMING STARTS IN ~60-80 YRS,  IMG TAKEN 10'20'34
Quoting 52. jpsb:

RSS (best modern temp set in existence) also did not record 2014 as warmest ever, 8th or 9th IIRC. Satellites are really the only good data sets since they measure almost the entire globe almost continuously.


Vice president of RSS, Carl Mears, has a different opinion about whether satellite or surface datasets are more reliable: "A similar, but stronger case can be made using surface temperature datasets, which I consider to be more reliable than satellite datasets" (quote from September 22, 2014).
For those who are interested, here is today's Aussie Met Office Enso Discussion:


Tropical Pacific waters show signs of cooling

Issued on 6 January 2015 

El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean weakened over the past fortnight, after being close to or exceeding El Niño thresholds for several weeks. Despite this easing, the Bureau's ENSO tracker status remains at El Niño ALERT.

Several indicators have moved back from El Niño thresholds over the past fortnight. Sea surface temperature anomalies have notably cooled by around 0.4 °C in the key NINO regions of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, although temperatures still remain above average along much of the equator. Beneath the surface, temperatures have also eased closer to average in many areas. The Southern Oscillation index remains negative, but is not currently at El Niño thresholds as occurred during spring.

Despite the general step back from El Niño levels, trade winds look likely to weaken once again in coming weeks, which in turn may bring some renewed warming of sea surface temperatures. Climate models generally indicate little significant change over the next two to three months, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures persisting in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Next update expected on 20 January 2014 | print version

Quoting washingtonian115:


You finally got some precipitation with cold air settled in over the area.
Not the "big one" but a nice taste of Winter.

Forecast lows of 14, 18, 17, and 20 degrees should put some decent ice on local ponds.
Good evening ...

Powerful jet brings stormy weather
BBC weather video, 6 January 2015 Last updated at 14:54
A strong jet stream is powering multiple areas of low pressure towards the UK this week bringing very unsettled conditions. Gale force winds and heavy rain are likely. BBC Weather's Peter Gibbs explains why the jet stream has become so strong.




u see the sun in the cloudy
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I won't believe it until I see it. The last "event" was supposed to give us a couple inches and we didn't see a drop.
With the last system (the one that gave a ton of rain to the Panhandle), it had a solid line of storms just south of Tampa and in the GOM but everything dissipated or went right around us.

41 days with only .05" of rain here in Fort Myers.

I was really hoping that line would hold together for you but, as usual, those things coming from the Gulf only look good as long as they are over water. I'm not convinced that the rain this weekend is going to any more good for you. Its still too far out to really tell but these overrunning events rarely produce a lot of rain and especially rain very far south. I'm just hoping the temperatures stay up enough Saturday night ad Sunday not to give us freezing rain at this point.
Good afternoon weathergeeks!
Gonna be so cold tomorrow, temps and wwwinnnd chillllsss dropping through out the day, I bet they'll cancel school.

Confidence scale

Wind chills below 0 degrees
Low------------Medium-----------High
----------------------------------->
Wind chills below -5 degrees
Low------------Medium-----------High
--------------------------->
Wind chills below -10 degrees
Low------------Medium-----------High
--------------------->
School cancellations across the coldest areas
Low------------Medium-----------High
------------------------>
Nearby Weather Stations cloudy with light snow 1:16 PM EST on January 06, 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
19.7 °F
DopplerDon.com
20.3 °F
Rock Hill
18.9 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
18.7 °F
Foxon
19.0 °F
East Haven Town Beach
19.0 °F
east haven morgan point
20.7 °F
Quoting 99. Skyepony:

Thanks for the blog & Welcome to Wunderground Bob Henson:)

Washington, DC Wundercam

nice picture i like it a lot snow on the ground
Given that the dome of high pressure is moving form Canada to the US, are Canadian high pressure records also in jeopardy?
Quoting 131. 62901IL:

Good afternoon weathergeeks!
Gonna be so cold tomorrow, temps and wwwinnnd chillllsss dropping through out the day, I bet they'll cancel school.

Confidence scale

Wind chills below 0 degrees
Low------------Medium-----------High
----------------------------------->
Wind chills below -5 degrees
Low------------Medium-----------High
--------------------------->
Wind chills below -10 degrees
Low------------Medium-----------High
--------------------->
School cancellations across the coldest areas
Low------------Medium-----------High
------------------------>
Nws Paducah says you may get snow tonight. Nws Goodland says I may get snow also.

Quoting georgevandenberghe:

You missed the different specialty SSTs of the 70s and 80s. You are right about other commercial jets.

The Concorde operated at well above the speed of sound over the Atlantic. Russia had a similar SST.. Tupelov "something". Boeing scrapped its plans for one in the early 70s.
It was the TU-44 and went through several variants. It was actually a superior aircraft in range and load capacity compared to the Concorde but it got stuck in the soviet bureaucracy of the time and was rushed to service as a symbol of state prestige. By the time it got to the "D" variant, it was a reliable aircraft but the Russians had run out of money for more development work. Ironically, the longest serving variant, the TU-144LL, was used as a flying laboratory to train Russian cosmonauts, and NASA used some flight time as part of their program for a possible second generation SST. The last flight was in 1998, and it's still at least theoretically intact and could be put back in service if someone came up with a half-billion dollars or so.
62901IL, what do you think your chance of snow is?
Here,s my weather chances:
Snow tonight
Low------------Medium--------------High
------------>
Wind chill below -5
Low------------Medium--------------High
------------------------------------>
Wind chill below -15
Low-------------Medium-------------High
--------------------------->
Heat Wave (lol)
Low-------------Medium-------------High
->
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:
Given that the dome of high pressure is moving form Canada to the US, are Canadian high pressure records also in jeopardy?
At least as of yesterday, it looked like the highest pressures would come just this side of the border, so there shouldn't be any Canadian records in jeopardy. IIRC, the Canadian high record is something like 1079 mb, so that would be hard to beat as far south as the US border.
Quoting 68. jpsb:



Douglas Passenger Jet Breaks Sound Barrier


That was in dive. What was the ground speed of that plane while it was in that dive?

Given that the dome of high pressure is moving form Canada to the US, are Canadian high pressure records also in jeopardy?


one thing i've learned from my blogging here is there is only one country in this world....of course that being the united states....all other countries aren't real....nor are they inhabited....regardless of what the countless visitors from other countries might say...furthermore.....regardless of what we learned in school...the capital of the US is florida
Quoting tampabaymatt:


We're really going to have to worry about flooding with this next rain event. The ground and waterways are so saturated from the numerous heavy rain events FL has endured recently, there is nowhere else for the water to go. I expect numerous flood warnings to be issued by the NWS when this next heavy rain event occurs on Sunday.


I posted this morning wondering when we would hear about the next major FL rain event, El Nino and the non-existent 2015 hurricane season. I was blessed with all 3 of those today lol, and every other day.
Just noting for our folks in North Florida and the Panhandle that we are looking at lows in the 20's on Wednesday and Thursday night.

Don't be fooled by the nice warm weather recently; that is a pretty quick turnaround that will require you to take precautions (today and tomorrow during the day) to seal off exposed pipes, protect your plants and agriculture, and take care of any pets and livestock. Especially the water pipes...........I had a few burst on me last winter when I did not take the precautions and had to pay a plumber some hefty cash for the repairs.
Quoting FarmerKarl:
Hi There! First Post - lurker x 5 years. Retired Navy P-3 aviator, now run a small family farm north of Leesburg VA. Great discussion this AM on DC snow driving and school board decisions to not close. Here is the mea culpa from Loudoun County's Board of Education.

"LCPS Decision to Keep Schools Open

We apologize for the difficulties the weather caused this morning. After careful consideration of all available information, including advanced weather forecasts and real-time monitoring of road conditions across the county, LCPS made an early morning decision to keep schools open Tuesday, January 6th.

Clearly, the conditions became far worse than anticipated. Students are safest at school when parents have not had a chance to make alternate plans for their child's return home. At this time, we are planning to dismiss schools at their normal dismissal time. However, all after-school activities are cancelled for this afternoon and evening.

LCPS regrets any confusion or stress today’s decisions may have caused. Student and staff safety remains our top priority and policy and procedures around closure and delay decision-making will be reviewed and enhanced using lessons learned today. "

2" of powder snow here in Lucketts.
Welcome aboard. Always good to see another pilot, although mine was a 172, not quite the same as flying a real airplane. :-)

These school opening decisions are really made based on Average Daily Attendance (ADA) funding. If the schools don't open and stay in session for at least a half day, they lose their ADA funding for the day. They can blame their idea of advanced weather forecasts but it really comes down to money. Schools have about the same expenses whether they are open or not, so losing a day's ADA can be a really big deal to a system which is in trouble financially anyway. It obviously would really be better for the kid's safety if decisions were made based on the weather forecast, but no one in the school funding system wants to give schools a pass on ADA for closing for anything. We have the same issue down here in Alabama but it's for severe weather days. It's a really screwed up system.
About 7 inches of snow in Central Illinois temp at the airport is 12º .. I have 18 at my house ..

Temperature will start to fall going down to a low near -7 tonight with a high of only -2 Wednesday and low Wednesday night of -15 ....

Winter has arrived !!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Just noting for our folks in North Florida and the Panhandle that we are looking at lows in the 20's on Wednesday and Thursday night.

Don't be fooled by the nice warm weather recently; that is a pretty quick turnaround that will require you to take precautions (today and tomorrow during the day) to seal off exposed pipes, protect your plants and agriculture, and take care of any pets and livestock. Especially the water pipes...........I had a few burst on me last winter when I did not take the precautions and had to pay a plumber some hefty cash for the repairs.
The low here was 28 this morning. It should actually be a little warmer tomorrow morning and then we get a low of 17, with a high not much above freezing Thursday. I plan on leaving my water drip for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It's really the best insurance against broken pipes.
Quoting whitewabit:
About 7 inches of snow in Central Illinois temp at the airport is 12º .. I have 18 at my house ..

Temperature will start to fall going down to a low near -7 tonight with a high of only -2 Wednesday and low Wednesday night of -15 ....

Winter has arrived !!
Nope, nope, nope. 17 degrees is too low for me now. I don't think I could survive a winter up north again.
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM CST on January 06, 2015
Overcast
2 F
Overcast
Windchill: -19 F
Humidity: 69%
Dew Point: -6 F
Wind: 18 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 23 mph
Pressure: 30.17 in (Falling)
Quoting 140. ricderr:


Given that the dome of high pressure is moving form Canada to the US, are Canadian high pressure records also in jeopardy?


one thing i've learned from my blogging here is there is only one country in this world....of course that being the united states....all other countries aren't real....nor are they inhabited....regardless of what the countless visitors from other countries might say...furthermore.....regardless of what we learned in school...the capital of the US is florida


This is not a fair post from you.
Another 80 degree day before the cool down.
But we're only forecast one day in the 60s (Thursday) then back up in the 70s on Friday and 80 by Sunday.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That was in dive. What was the ground speed of that plane while it was in that dive?

Touché , LMAO
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That was in dive. What was the ground speed of that plane while it was in that dive?
I'm not sure what the issue is but there has never been a US certified commercial aircraft that has been supersonic in level flight. Probably the aircraft that came the closest was a prototype Convair 990 which reached Mach 0.94 in level flight. The 990 is generally acknowledged as the fastest non-SST transport and its higher powered engines are what ultimately killed the plane commercially, since flying fast meant more fuel consumed and less range.
Thursday morning
North Florida experiencing a hard freeze. Extreme South Florida is rather mild with a low near 60 degrees.
153. vis0
IKODOM? That's when California gets ENSO "fuel"  from the North & South check Canada to Ca & Baja to Ca.
Quoting 142. weathermanwannabe:

Just noting for our folks in North Florida and the Panhandle that we are looking at lows in the 20's on Wednesday and Thursday night.

Don't be fooled by the nice warm weather recently; that is a pretty quick turnaround that will require you to take precautions (today and tomorrow during the day) to seal off exposed pipes, protect your plants and agriculture, and take care of any pets and livestock. Especially the water pipes...........I had a few burst on me last winter when I did not take the precautions and had to pay a plumber some hefty cash for the repairs.
good advice there..i had that happen some years ago when a freeze happened here in my area..lost 2 pipes and your right there..Hefty repair bills.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
151 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

WVZ501-505-070000-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150107T0000Z/
WESTERN GRANT-WESTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...CIRCLEVILLE
151 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 7 INCHES. PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW.

* TIMING...TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL RESUME LATE TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS.

* WINDS...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW
ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&
I was just reading Bob's post. Nice job. I noticed in the big picture at the end that almost every young person in the audience had their noses buried in something glowing. A few of the older people were actually talking to one another...in person. That's what we used to go to conventions to do. That might be part of the communications problems we seem to have now.
Quoting sar2401:
I was just reading Bob's post. Nice job. I noticed in the big picture at the end that almost every young person in the audience had their noses buried in something glowing. A few of the older people were actually talking to one another...in person. That's what we used to go to conventions to do. That might be part of the communications problems we seem to have now.


They were all on the blog.

Just thought that storm heading to the northeast in the south looked interesting.
Quoting 143. sar2401:

Welcome aboard. Always good to see another pilot, although mine was a 172, not quite the same as flying a real airplane. :-)

These school opening decisions are really made based on Average Daily Attendance (ADA) funding. If the schools don't open and stay in session for at least a half day, they lose their ADA funding for the day. They can blame their idea of advanced weather forecasts but it really comes down to money. Schools have about the same expenses whether they are open or not, so losing a day's ADA can be a really big deal to a system which is in trouble financially anyway. It obviously would really be better for the kid's safety if decisions were made based on the weather forecast, but no one in the school funding system wants to give schools a pass on ADA for closing for anything. We have the same issue down here in Alabama but it's for severe weather days. It's a really screwed up system.


Thanks! Loudoun Schools had 15 "snow" days in the sked last year so the kids didn't have to make up any of the days from all that snow. Wonder if they shortened things up this year to save $$

About 7 inches of snow in Central Illinois temp at the airport is 12º .. I have 18 at my house ..

18 at the house....what....you're not out and about in those warm temps????? :-)
Quoting sar2401:
The low here was 28 this morning. It should actually be a little warmer tomorrow morning and then we get a low of 17, with a high not much above freezing Thursday. I plan on leaving my water drip for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It's really the best insurance against broken pipes.

Shut off the water and drain your pipes!
Just updated.

Quoting 160. ricderr:


About 7 inches of snow in Central Illinois temp at the airport is 12º .. I have 18 at my house ..

18 at the house....what....you're not out and about in those warm temps????? :-)


Was out running my German Shepard Dog for little over an hour !! She loves the snow and is still puppy like as shes not 2 years old yet ..

You just put on coveralls and bundle up .. You have to dress for the weather .. With the wind chill it feels like 5 below ...
Quoting 157. Sfloridacat5:



They were all on the blog.


LOL! Are you saying the blog was more entertaining than the AMS conference?
What are my chances of seeing winter weather in SE LA this weekend.
3.4" of snow in Southern PA. More then I got the whole month of December. Woo! :p Now bring on the cold. I hope everyone in the Midwest stays warm!!
Quoting 162. StormTrackerScott:

Just updated.




LOL! Of course Ft. Myers is forecasted to get less rain than the rest of the state. So funny.
Quoting 165. Andrebrooks:

What are my chances of seeing winter weather in SE LA this weekend.


Their there.

Quoting 167. tampabaymatt:



LOL! Of course Ft. Myers is forecasted to get less rain than the rest of the state. So funny.


It's almost the curse of Fort Myers. Hard to believe we've been so wet but in contrast SW FL has been extremely dry.
Quoting 169. StormTrackerScott:



It's almost the curse of Fort Myers. Hard to believe we've been so wet but in contrast SW FL has been extremely dry.


They got drilled all summer in 2013, but then for whatever reason they're way below average in 2014. Just shows the random nature of convective rain.
You just put on coveralls and bundle up .. You have to dress for the weather .. With the wind chill it feels like 5 below ...

i'm just spoiled this winter as it hasn't been very cold...i believe the lowest we've seen this season was 22...most winters we have at least a few days where we don't get above the low 20's.....so far there's only been one day where we haven't risen above 40
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's almost the curse of Fort Myers. Hard to believe we've been so wet but in contrast SW FL has been extremely dry.


It's the desert southwest of Florida. We did have a beautiful golf course view out the back windows, but now this is what I see.
The deep trough of very cold and snowy air over Eastern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean caused in combination with the still warm waters a powerful waterspout in Crete's capital Heraklion (northern coast) today:





Another nice video on vimeo.


Another amazing shot of the Iraklio, Crete TWIN waterspouts today! Photo: Odysseas Nathenas via Severe Weather Greece via SevereWeatherEurope

Meanwhile southeast of Greenland "Christian" bombed out today ...




Surface map for tomorrow.

No wonder, looking at the map above:
Strong Gale Warning for Iceland, Bonfires Postponed
By Eyglo Svala Arnarsdottir, January 06, 2015 12:37Updated: January 06, 2015 17:00

Stay warm over there and good night!
Record High Temperature in East Iceland
Iceland Review, By Zoë Robert, Updated: January 06, 2015 16:28
A new record was set in Iceland when on December 29 the temperature in Skjaldþingsstaðir in Vopnafjörður, East Iceland, reached 16ºC (60.8ºF). It was the warmest temperature in Iceland between Christmas and New Year’s Day since records began, according to the Icelandic Met Office. ...
Quoting 158. vongfong2014:


Just thought that storm heading to the northeast in the south looked interesting.


I never really paid much attention to storms in South America until pablosyn began posting about storms that came out of Argentina to Uruguay and SE Brazil. They all seem so severe. I'm kind of fascinated by the repeated pattern of where they emanate from and head to.
Quoting 168. StormTrackerScott:



Their there.


Now all we need here is the cold air to cooperate....Then again today shows that what was suppose to be a dusting to 2 inches maximum was forecast horribly by most agencies even 6 hours before the event.
Quoting 145. sar2401:

The low here was 28 this morning. It should actually be a little warmer tomorrow morning and then we get a low of 17, with a high not much above freezing Thursday. I plan on leaving my water drip for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It's really the best insurance against broken pipes.


Saw on an earlier blog that the issue you have is the pipes in a crawl space. I think you said you had them wrapped. Any thoughts to using heat tape?
Quoting sar2401:
I was just reading Bob's post. Nice job. I noticed in the big picture at the end that almost every young person in the audience had their noses buried in something glowing. A few of the older people were actually talking to one another...in person. That's what we used to go to conventions to do. That might be part of the communications problems we seem to have now.
Maybe--that is, if one believes that using one method to communicate--in this case, technology--is intrinsically inferior to other methods. At any rate, I see only two obvious cell phones in use; it's probably not fair, then, to claim that "every young person" is looking down at technology, or that every older person looking downward isn't doing so.
Currently 89 degrees in Immokalee, Florida. 83 here in Fort Myers.

About Thursday morning. 12Z GFS is a lot more aggressive than our local forecast.

Local forecast is for a low of 48 degrees Thursday morning.

Here's the 12Z GFS.
Quoting 179. Sfloridacat5:

Currently 89 degrees in Immokalee, Florida. 83 here in Fort Myers.

About Thursday morning. 12Z GFS is a lot more aggressive than our local forecast.

Local forecast is for a low of 48 degrees Thursday morning.

Here's the 12Z GFS.



Why is Immokalee, FL always the hottest place in the Northern Hemisphere it seems?


some snow on the ground here in new haven,conn
Quoting 178. Neapolitan:

Maybe--that is, if one believes that using one method to communicate--in this case, technology--is intrinsically inferior to other methods. At any rate, I see only two obvious cell phones in use; it's probably not fair, then, to claim that "every young person" is looking down at technology, or that every older person looking downward isn't doing so.


Except for the two young boys in the center middle playing Infinity Blade.
Another day in the 80's down here. But for some reason they are putting our rain at 100% tonight.
Expecting over night lows tomorrow, Wednesday night, to be -15º and wind chills will be -25º to -35º .. life threatening temperatures if caught outside with out proper clothing ..
Quoting 179. Sfloridacat5:

Currently 89 degrees in Immokalee, Florida. 83 here in Fort Myers.

About Thursday morning. 12Z GFS is a lot more aggressive than our local forecast.

Local forecast is for a low of 48 degrees Thursday morning.

Here's the 12Z GFS.

63 here right now and you can actually feel the big change coming
Winter Storm Gorgon Finishes in the East; Snow in Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City Published Jan 6 2015 02:40 PM EST Winter Storm Gorgon is racing across the country at near-freeway speeds, and by the time it moves off the East Coast Tuesday night it will have brought a swath of snow more than 2,000 miles long, from the Cascades to the Mid-Atlantic coast, in barely 48 hours. This fast-moving system has prompted winter storm warnings, and advisories for parts of 22 states from Washington all the way to New Jersey, as well as the District of Columbia. As of 1:30 p.m. EST Tuesday, alerts remained in effect for five states in the East as well as for Montana, where snow has lingered long after Gorgon moved away.
Snow and Ice Reports
Bands of snow snarled the morning commute in the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro areas Tuesday morning. As of 10 a.m. EST Tuesday, 4 inches of snow blanketed the U.S. Capitol grounds, the first 1-inch-plus snow of the season, there. Karo, Virginia, about a two-hour drive west of the Nation's Capital, picked up 6 inches of snow.

Official totals at the major East Coast airport sites included 4.2 inches at Dulles International Airport in northern Virginia; 2.4 inches at Reagan National Airport near Washington, D.C.; 2.3 inches at BWI Airport near Baltimore; and 1.0 inch at Philadelphia International Airport, the season's first 1-inch snow there.

Snow was also falling in the New York City area Tuesday morning, in what may be the area's first measurable snowfall since December 10.

In the Plains and Midwest, top snowfall totals by state as of 9 a.m. CST Tuesday included 3 inches in Beulah, North Dakota; 6 inches in Sioux Falls, South Dakota; 4.5 inches in Blue Earth, Minnesota; 7.8 inches at Ankeny, Iowa, in the suburbs of Des Moines; 6.8 inches near Cambridge, Illinois; 7.5 inches in West Lafayette, Indiana; 2.8 inches northwest of Ferryville, Wisconsin; and 6 inches in Rockbridge, Ohio.Snow has already blanketed parts of the Northwest and much of the northern Rockies. In the Cascade passes of western Washington, warmer air changed snow over to rain before Gorgon moved out, prompting avalanche warnings that remain in effect there. Avalanche warnings also have been issued for several mountain ranges in the northern Rockies.

Gorgon's first target was the state of Washington, where 11.2 inches of snow fell at Chief Joseph Dam in central Washington. Freezing rain fell in central Washington as well, with Mazama reporting up to 0.5 inch of freezing rain. Leavenworth reported a few tree branches down and localized power outages due to ice accumulation.

Gorgon also brought flooding rainfall to parts of western Washington, causing mudslides that have left people stranded and roads closed.Locally very heavy snowfall hit the mountains of Wyoming and Montana. In the Tetons of Wyoming, Grand Targhee reported 45.8 inches of snow in the 32-hour period ending 1 p.m. MST Monday. In northwest Montana, 25.8 inches fell near Columbia Falls between 10 a.m. MST Sunday and 10 a.m. Monday. Idaho's top total was an estimated 20.1 inches at Pine Creek Pass, which is 38 miles east of Idaho Falls.

I believe that all methods of communication are not equal. I'll argue that some methods of communication are inferior to others.

I think if I had an altercation with someone in person (eye to eye, face to face) it would have a different impact than if I were an anonymous person on a blog.

Chilly 54F here in Columbia, SC.

Quoting 178. Neapolitan:

Maybe--that is, if one believes that using one method to communicate--in this case, technology--is intrinsically inferior to other methods. At any rate, I see only two obvious cell phones in use; it's probably not fair, then, to claim that "every young person" is looking down at technology, or that every older person looking downward isn't doing so.
Through Tuesday night: Gorgon's snow shield will pull off the Eastern Seaboard by Tuesday evening. However, parts of coastal southern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Long Island, southern New Jersey and Delaware may still see lingering light snow during the afternoon rush.

Snow in Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, D.C. and New York City should be wrapped up by late afternoon. However, lingering snow on roads will lead to tricky travel during the afternoon/evening rush.

Lake-effect snows should persist in Gorgon's wake across the entire Great Lakes region.

Will be interesting to see if strength and position of that H verifies as we get closer. Next Monday morning could be slick travels for me.

Quoting 168. StormTrackerScott:



Their there.


Quoting LargoFl:
63 here right now and you can actually feel the big change coming


Pretty big difference in lows tonight along the west coast of Fl.



A man dispenses salt onto a snowy sidewalk on Jan. 6, 2015 in the Fordham Heights neighborhood of the Bronx borough of New York City.
Quoting 175. LAbonbon:



I never really paid much attention to storms in South America until pablosyn began posting about storms that came out of Argentina to Uruguay and SE Brazil. They all seem so severe. I'm kind of fascinated by the repeated pattern of where they emanate from and head to.


Thanks a lot!! I'm glad reading that. It's a pleasure share the information of my region with you!
This storm between Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina has a low pressure also. Today we had 106ºF in the South Brazil with heat index around 122ºF. It's very hot here. Strong thunderstorms hits Argentina and Uruguay in this morning and afternoon, look this pictures:

Gualeguaychu, Entre Ríos County, Argentina: Today morning
Link



A tornado hits Córdoba, Argentina today. Was weak but is nice to see something like that here.



Facebook:
Link
Quoting LAbonbon:


Saw on an earlier blog that the issue you have is the pipes in a crawl space. I think you said you had them wrapped. Any thoughts to using heat tape?
Well, I could do it except I have a total pipe run of 143 feet, including laterals, and some of it is four and five inch pipe. I priced out the cost of heat tape to cover it all and it comes out to about $500! That was just for manual control on top of it. I reconfigured some of the pipe so I have a constant grade on the main pipe runs, which should help drain the laterals, the ones most likely to burst. I can drip water for long time before it costs me $500. Of course, that's assuming we ever have normal winters again. That price might look a lot better if we keep having these winters down in the teens and single digits. :-)
Ahh, the joys of winter in the mountains:

Late Afternoon A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. West wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 15. West wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Wednesday Scattered snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -2. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -12. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 26 mph decreasing to 14 to 19 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 20. West wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 29.

At least it is warmer than the mid-west, offset by all all the dampness we get in the mid-Atlantic.

76 days until spring!!!
Quoting 175. LAbonbon:



I never really paid much attention to storms in South America until pablosyn began posting about storms that came out of Argentina to Uruguay and SE Brazil. They all seem so severe. I'm kind of fascinated by the repeated pattern of where they emanate from and head to.



MetSul Meteorologia %u200F@metsul 5 Std.Vor 5 Stunden Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
IMAGEM | Tormenta em Gualeguaychu (ARG), junto ao Oeste do Uruguai. (via @hermidamariana)

Edit: I see Pablosyn was faster :-)
Quoting 156. sar2401:

I was just reading Bob's post. Nice job. I noticed in the big picture at the end that almost every young person in the audience had their noses buried in something glowing. A few of the older people were actually talking to one another...in person. That's what we used to go to conventions to do. That might be part of the communications problems we seem to have now.


This has been one of my gripes at conventions also. You go primarily to interact with peers in your field that you rarely get to see and there is no substitute for face to face contact. To ruin that by burying one's face in a screen is gross waste of an opportunity.

The other gripe is at the presentations themselves. Most younger people are pecking away at tablets, phones or laptops during presentations and missing the speaker's visual and auditory additions to the projected information which you could otherwise get on the web, later. There is a lot of information in a good speaker's, between the lines, talk and it's worth the time to listen and get it. If not, stay out of the conference room and do your private screen time elsewhere. I actually have made it a point to get my presentation right before I leave and depart with nothing more than a memory stick (allowed in Europe still), hardcopy of the presentation (in case of AV disaster) and other travel stuff like clothes. It saves the hassle of taking a gov't laptop out of the country also.
extreme cold warning
for southern Ontario
issued by Environment Canada
Tuesday 6 January 2015.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Extreme cold warning for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==Discussion==


A period of very cold wind chills is expected.

A cold front will cross southern Ontario tonight and Wednesday
morning. Very cold temperatures in the wake of this front, combined
with strong northerly winds, will result in wind chill values near
or below minus 30 Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

While anyone who isn't dressed warmly is at risk in cold weather
conditions, some are at greater risk than others for frost bite and
hypothermia:
- homeless people
- outdoor workers
- people living in homes that are poorly insulated (with no heat or
no power)
- people with certain medical conditions such as diabetes,
peripheral neuropathy and diseases affecting the blood vessels,
people taking certain medications including Beta-blockers
- winter sport enthusiasts
- people who consume excess alcohol
- infants and
- seniors.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and
wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are
designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry
and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove
layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a
layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure
to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You
lose heat faster when you're wet.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind
chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and
hypothermia.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so
stay tuned to your local media or weatheradio. Email reports of
severe weather to storm.Ontario(at)ec.Gc.CA or tweet with the hashtag
(hash)onstorm.

Http://weather.Gc.CA/warnings/index(underscore)e. Html?Prov=son

End/MSC

Quoting 142. weathermanwannabe:

Just noting for our folks in North Florida and the Panhandle that we are looking at lows in the 20's on Wednesday and Thursday night.

Don't be fooled by the nice warm weather recently; that is a pretty quick turnaround that will require you to take precautions (today and tomorrow during the day) to seal off exposed pipes, protect your plants and agriculture, and take care of any pets and livestock. Especially the water pipes...........I had a few burst on me last winter when I did not take the precautions and had to pay a plumber some hefty cash for the repairs.





I never saw more broken pipes than when I lived in Tallahassee. Pipes are run outside of buildings and houses there and you just cannot do that in the FL panhandle.
Not sure if any of you read Decoded Science.com articles, but they name "weather events" and they just named " El Niño Eggplant"
Quoting 196. barbamz:




MetSul Meteorologia %u200F@metsul 5 Std.Vor 5 Stunden Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
IMAGEM | Tormenta em Gualeguaychu (ARG), junto ao Oeste do Uruguai. (via @hermidamariana)

Edit: I see Pablosyn was faster :-)


Amazing weather in that part of the world !! Thats a very large wall cloud !


The White House during a snow storm on Jan. 6, 2015 in Washington, DC.
It's great we can all communicate without being in the same room, but given the choice, I would much rather talk to you all in person.

Perhaps we could start our own reality show : RBOW (Real Bloggers of Wunderground). lol, just kidding.

PS: Not kidding about the fact that I would enjoy meeting many on the blog.


Quoting 197. georgevandenberghe:



This has been one of my gripes at conventions also. You go primarily to interact with peers in your field that you rarely get to see and there is no substitute for face to face contact. To ruin that by burying one's face in a screen is gross waste of an opportunity.

The other gripe is at the presentations themselves. Most younger people are pecking away at tablets, phones or laptops during presentations and missing the speaker's visual and auditory additions to the projected information which you could otherwise get on the web, later. There is a lot of information in a good speaker's, between the lines, talk and it's worth the time to listen and get it. If not, stay out of the conference room and do your private screen time elsewhere. I actually have made it a point to get my presentation right before I leave and depart with nothing more than a memory stick (allowed in Europe still), hardcopy of the presentation (in case of AV disaster) and other travel stuff like clothes. It saves the hassle of taking a gov't laptop out of the country also.
Worst cold weather I endured was in Baton Rouge. Didn't get very cold at all but TV announcers told people to let their water run. The result: the city lost water pressure. Not because of broken pipes. It never did get particularly cold.
To get an idea of the development of very energetic and explosive storms over the Northern Atlantic (GFS) in the next days I once again recommend the splendid German animation of worldwide weather here, showing gale force winds (Click "Animation"):

http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/GM/wind 000_01.htm

(To get the dates don't select "Animation", instead use the step by step forward option with "Termin").

To watch wordwide temperature anomalies go here and click "Animation":

http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/GM/t850 _01.htm

To watch the development of rain and snow, go here:

http://www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de/GM/rain snow_01.htm

But now I'm really out for tonight ;-)
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
I believe that all methods of communication are not equal. I'll argue that some methods of communication are inferior to others.

I think if I had an altercation with someone in person (eye to eye, face to face) it would have a different impact than if I were an anonymous person on a blog
Well, we're not discussing arguments with accompanying fisticuffs here, of course. The OP conjectured that the young people with their noses buried in their glowing cell phones in the image above were obviously inferior communicators. I disagreed with that assumption/assessment, and still do. It seems that, as with music and fashion, every generation is convinced that the technologies used by the generation(s) that follow will lead to the decay and destruction of the human race. In the 1800s, the telegraph was reviled by old-timers, and looked upon as an evil straight from the pits of Hades. Soon to follow was the telephone, then the radio, then the TV, then email, then cell phones. I'm not calling those with such opinions Luddites--most aren't that extreme--but technological progress is inevitable, and generally a good thing for mankind overall. I think we'd be better off if more would recognize and realize that...
Quoting 193. pablosyn:



Thanks a lot!! I'm glad reading that. It's a pleasure share the information of my region with you!
This storm between Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina has a low pressure also. Today we had 106ºF in the South Brazil with heat index around 122ºF. It's very hot here. Strong thunderstorms hits Argentina and Uruguay in this morning and afternoon, look this pictures:

Gualeguaychu, Entre Ríos County, Argentina: Today morning
Link



A tornado hits Córdoba, Argentina today. Was weak but is nice to see something like that here.



Facebook:
Link



Wow, that is hot. If it's not too much trouble, please keep weather stories from your area coming. Just as we look forward to seeing barbamz's European updates, I'm sure I'm not the only one that likes to see your weather happenings as well.

BTW, those are some really ominous looking clouds!
Quoting 204. bappit:

Worst cold weather I endured was in Baton Rouge. Didn't get very cold at all but TV announcers told people to let their water run. The result: the city lost water pressure. Not because of broken pipes. It never did get particularly cold.


Well, come Wednesday night, if it gets as cold as expected, I'll be sitting here in Baton Rouge, likely running my water :D

I live in a house on a slab foundation, but people in trailers or homes on piers don't have much choice. I'm in better shape than those folks, but none of these homes (mine included) are built for winter.
Quoting LAbonbon:


Well, come Wednesday night, if it gets as cold as expected, I'll be sitting here in Baton Rouge, likely running my water :D

I live in a house on a slab foundation, but people in trailers or homes on piers don't have much choice. I'm in better shape than those folks, but none of these homes (mine included) are built for winter.

If you run your water a bit, that brings warmer water out of the ground. You don't have to run the water all the time.

If you open your cabinet doors where you have pipes, that gets better circulation of warmed air around the pipes.

If you tun up your thermostat a tad, more warmth for the pipes.

If you wrap insulation of some sort around the pipes and faucets exposed to cold, that goes a long way. Do that now while it is sunny.

Shut off the water and drain the pipes. You could do that before you go to bed so you don't have the water shut off all day long. Don't forget to drain the hot water pipes, too.


Tampa Bay area forecast
Back when BR lost water pressure, I remember putting buckets out to catch RAIN WATER coming off the roofs. There was a threat of freezing rain and people got in a tizzy. This cold snap will be a lot colder than that one. Fortunately it won't last too long.
Quoting 33. washingtonian115:

People in D.C are horrible drivers XD.We have some of the absolute worst in the country.


Because they are all imports - the Californians in Seattle always were organ donating because they could not grok oily I-5 was treacherous with a bit of drizzle. I grew up in Woodley Park and we marveled over the automobile driving idiocy from Connecticut Ave to 34th and on up to Wisconsin Ave when even an inch of snow barely coated things. Great time to play on the National Cathedral grounds, sled in Tregaron or go to the zoo and check out the outdoor critters - they always seemed to enjoy the snow.
Quoting 199. georgevandenberghe:



I never saw more broken pipes than when I lived in Tallahassee. Pipes are run outside of buildings and houses there and you just cannot do that in the FL panhandle.



My broken/split copper pipes at the house here in Tally last winter are typical of your comment; one split outside the house related to the air conditioning unit and the other one split under the house in the crawl space. Insulated the ones outside since then and keep the water dripping for the ones (about 20) under the house. It's not happened to us in the last 14 years living here except for last winter but then again; we forgot to leave a drip running that particular night.
214. JRRP
our second HOF

Pedro Martinez
Quoting 209. bappit:


If you run your water a bit, that brings warmer water out of the ground. You don't have to run the water all the time.

If you open your cabinet doors where you have pipes, that gets better circulation of warmed air around the pipes.

If you tun up your thermostat a tad, more warmth for the pipes.

If you wrap insulation of some sort around the pipes and faucets exposed to cold, that goes a long way. Do that now while it is sunny.

Shut off the water and drain the pipes. You could do that before you go to bed so you don't have the water shut off all day long.


All good advice. I don't plan on running it all the time, I actually will set the alarm and get up in the wee hours to do this. Everything, as far as I can tell, is in an exterior wall, w/ the hot water heater & associated piping in the attic (unheated and uninsulated). I crack open the attic hatch to allow some warmer air up there as well.

Regarding shutting the water off - I have no clue where to do this. One year I was on the phone w/ my uncle (he spent decades in construction) trying to figure this out, to no avail. I was concerned about the outside faucets. Never found it, but haven't had a problem w/ the faucets yet (knock on wood). Keep meaning to ask a plumber about this, but last time I had a plumbing problem I forgot to ask him :/

I do turn up the thermostat higher than I normally would, w/ the idea that it's got to 'combat' the outside air temp by keeping the areas within the walls and the cold attic space above freezing.

Drought in California? Apparently LA has enough water to go around for NFL stadiums:



"A rendering shows an outdoor watering pool, gathering space and a water fountain like Atlanta's Centennial Olympic Park."
Quoting 203. HaoleboySurfEC:

It's great we can all communicate without being in the same room, but given the choice, I would much rather talk to you all in person.

Perhaps we could start our own reality show : RBOW (Real Bloggers of Wunderground). lol, just kidding.

PS: Not kidding about the fact that I would enjoy meeting many on the blog.





No hair pulling though!
Quoting 207. LAbonbon:



Wow, that is hot. If it's not too much trouble, please keep weather stories from your area coming. Just as we look forward to seeing barbamz's European updates, I'm sure I'm not the only one that likes to see your weather happenings as well.

BTW, those are some really ominous looking clouds!


Of course, You can count on me, I will continue sharing weather information on my region with you!!!
Quoting 197. georgevandenberghe:



The other gripe is at the presentations themselves. Most younger people are pecking away at tablets, phones or laptops during presentations and missing the speaker's visual and auditory additions to the projected information which you could otherwise get on the web, later. There is a lot of information in a good speaker's, between the lines, talk and it's worth the time to listen and get it. If not, stay out of the conference room and do your private screen time elsewhere. I actually have made it a point to get my presentation right before I leave and depart with nothing more than a memory stick (allowed in Europe still), hardcopy of the presentation (in case of AV disaster) and other travel stuff like clothes. It saves the hassle of taking a gov't laptop out of the country also.

Many people you see typing during a presentation are live-tweeting the presentations. That's how I follow along with AMS stuff.
On the communication issue (and kids), I have worked in the area of child welfare for over 13 years now and deal on a regular basis with troubled kids as well as with scores of child psychologists all all that this entails. Studies are starting to emerge about children watching/using too many electronics and the distraction aspect. A few have even suggested that the rapid "lights" from too much TV or video games (for infants and younger children) might be impacting some brain development or a contributor to the higher rates of ADHD we have been seeing lately.

The point is that there is no real substitute, IMHO, for real person to person learning, conversation/lecturing, and just sitting down in a quiet space to actually hold and read an actual book..............That seemed to work ok for the last few thousand years for lots of people.......................
I might be lucky that my water shutoff is easy to reach, with an outdoor faucet connected to it. If I shut off the main valve there, I can drain the pipe leading into the house by opening the outdoor faucet. Other people might not be so lucky. Then I go around to the other outdoor faucets and all the faucets inside the house.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 57. Light north northwest wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning.

Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Sunny, with a high near 41. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.


Looks a cold week to start school for me!
Quoting 216. tampabaymatt:

Drought in California? Apparently LA has enough water to go around for NFL stadiums:



"A rendering shows an outdoor watering pool, gathering space and a water fountain like Atlanta's Centennial Olympic Park."



The wealthy are always ensured their water while the rest and the environment suffer. It's nothing new, a lot of wealthy golf course communities have still been ensured plenty of water even though there has been a water crisis for a while now.

Quoting 222. Jedkins01:

Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 57. Light north northwest wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Thursday Sunny, with a high near 41. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25.
Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.


Looks a cold week to start school!


What was your rain gauge at when you got back to Tallahassee?
Quoting 215. LAbonbon:



All good advice. I don't plan on running it all the time, I actually will set the alarm and get up in the wee hours to do this. Everything, as far as I can tell, is in an exterior wall, w/ the hot water heater & associated piping in the attic (unheated and uninsulated). I crack open the attic hatch to allow some warmer air up there as well.

Regarding shutting the water off - I have no clue where to do this. One year I was on the phone w/ my uncle (he spent decades in construction) trying to figure this out, to no avail. I was concerned about the outside faucets. Never found it, but haven't had a problem w/ the faucets yet (knock on wood). Keep meaning to ask a plumber about this, but last time I had a plumbing problem I forgot to ask him :/

I do turn up the thermostat higher than I normally would, w/ the idea that it's got to 'combat' the outside air temp by keeping the areas within the walls and the cold attic space above freezing.


What's good also for the running water is..If you are able to program your washing machine and dish washer to come on in the middle of the night about 2 hours apart...works fine..
Quoting 209. bappit:


If you run your water a bit, that brings warmer water out of the ground. You don't have to run the water all the time.

If you open your cabinet doors where you have pipes, that gets better circulation of warmed air around the pipes.

If you tun up your thermostat a tad, more warmth for the pipes.

If you wrap insulation of some sort around the pipes and faucets exposed to cold, that goes a long way. Do that now while it is sunny.

Shut off the water and drain the pipes. You could do that before you go to bed so you don't have the water shut off all day long. Don't forget to drain the hot water pipes, too.


And this is why we have building codes. The only thing I have to do in Maryland is turn the water off to the outdoor faucets in early winter. And keep the house at least 65F. And I have a woodstove in
case I lose power or heat.



Quoting 223. Jedkins01:




The wealthy are always ensured there water while the rest and the environment suffer. It's nothing new, a lot of wealthy golf course communities have stilled been ensured plenty of water even though there has been a water crisis for a while now.




I remember the irony of not serving water with meals at the clubhouse of a golf course while the irrigation system consumed 100,000 gallons a night.
Quoting 224. tampabaymatt:



What was your rain gauge at when you got back to Tallahassee?


11.44! Thankfully I didn't get much more or it would have overflowed and I wouldn't have known how much I got, it was close to the brim, and it holds a max of 12 inches.

The funny part is that about 10 inches of that fell in 48 hrs just before Christmas, definitely an unusual event!
forecasted 7pm wind chills \
Well, I believe that Europe is catching up USA in extreme weather events!!!
forecasted 7am wind chills
Quoting 231. matara28:

Well, I believe that Europe is catching up USA in extreme weather events!!!
the whole planet is catching up in events faster and faster
Maybe the old timers weren't too off base. One could argue that the period of improved communication technology has corresponded with the period of greatest destructive warfare in human history.

I'll argue that more advanced tools for communication alone won't make you a better communicator. Just like a more advanced tape measure alone won't make you a better carpenter.

I'll also maintain it is up to people, and not their devices, to choose how to effectively communicate. I think that we may be spending too much time hiding behind texts, emails, etc. when we have the opportunity for face-to-face conversation or even phone conversation. Can't tell you how many misunderstandings I have witnessed as the result of a misinterpreted text, blog or email message. Some of those misunderstandings resulted in significant monetary or emotional damage.

Balmy 59F home in Florence. Here comes the cold...



Quoting 206. Neapolitan:

Well, we're not discussing arguments with accompanying fisticuffs here, of course. The OP conjectured that the young people with their noses buried in their glowing cell phones in the image above were obviously inferior communicators. I disagreed with that assumption/assessment, and still do. It seems that, as with music and fashion, every generation is convinced that the technologies used by the generation(s) that follow will lead to the decay and destruction of the human race. In the 1800s, the telegraph was reviled by old-timers, and looked upon as an evil straight from the pits of Hades. Soon to follow was the telephone, then the radio, then the TV, then email, then cell phones. I'm not calling those with such opinions Luddites--most aren't that extreme--but technological progress is inevitable, and generally a good thing for mankind overall. I think we'd be better off if more would recognize and realize that...
Quoting 225. bayoubug:

What's good also for the running water is..If you are able to program your washing machine and dish washer to come on in the middle of the night about 2 hours apart...works fine..


They're not that advanced :) I'll be getting up to do that as well. It's a bit of a hassle, but I don't really mind, as it doesn't get that cold that often.

My dishwasher is digital, but not programmable, and at the time I bought my w/d set, a friend had just paid an outrageous amount to get hers fixed, so I went simple...meaning analog.

Just spent another half hour looking for the water shutoff, no luck. Looking online, it appears it's not an uncommon problem.
Quoting 231. matara28:

Well, I believe that Europe is catching up USA in extreme weather events!!!


Hey, how did you make out with your last snowstorm?
Quoting 233. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the whole planet is catching up in events faster and faster

True....!!!
Quoting 235. LAbonbon:

.

Just spent another half hour looking for the water shutoff, no luck. Looking online, it appears it's not an uncommon problem.
Assuming you have metered water, the shutoff would ordinarily be next to the meter. Your meter may be at the curb and the shutoff may require a special wrench only the utilities department people have. But there should also be one where the service enters the house.
Quoting 236. LAbonbon:



Hey, how did you make out with your last snowstorm?


In our area the storm lasted about 3 hours but it was enough to put 10 inches of snow . Now we have problems with frost. We will have three days of -20 degrees in our area, even colder in the north-east of the country. And i have a hunch that in the last days of January will be even worst...but, I like winter...:)


light snow in new haven,conn
Quoting 236. LAbonbon:



Hey, how did you make out with your last snowstorm?


In other words, we did ok. :)

Tx for asking!
#215 LAbonbon:
Thank you for your response to my comment regarding the odd (to me) look of winds and water vapour in the Gulf of Alaska t'other day.
We experience some what more frequent freeze events here than you so I'm trying to think what I would recommend beyond the advice you have gotten since your ask.
Most of the advice I came up with will not be of much use in the short term since it would require plumbing now before the frost.
Letting all faucets leak a little has been mentioned and I can second that.
I like the idea of programming the dish washer and cloths washer to run alternately through the cold night.
I don't have a dish washer (except Tloml or myself in extreme cases) and I doubt our clothes washer has a delay on it's push button control board.
In the longer term I would find the main water shutoff first and foremost!
Or install an accessible shutoff even if you would need to dig up the main supply to do that.
We generally install "Frost Free" outside hose bibs:
http://www.structuretech1.com/2014/02/how-to-prev ent-outside-faucets-from-freezing-2/
here which would solve the long term but not tonight.
Pipe insulation and home insulation - pipes inside the insulation - will also work well.
Now if I had only followed my own advice, eh.
Hopefully the grounds around your house are still well above freezing and these measures should get you through.
Quoting 206. Neapolitan:

Well, we're not discussing arguments with accompanying fisticuffs here, of course. The OP conjectured that the young people with their noses buried in their glowing cell phones in the image above were obviously inferior communicators. I disagreed with that assumption/assessment, and still do. It seems that, as with music and fashion, every generation is convinced that the technologies used by the generation(s) that follow will lead to the decay and destruction of the human race. In the 1800s, the telegraph was reviled by old-timers, and looked upon as an evil straight from the pits of Hades. Soon to follow was the telephone, then the radio, then the TV, then email, then cell phones. I'm not calling those with such opinions Luddites--most aren't that extreme--but technological progress is inevitable, and generally a good thing for mankind overall. I think we'd be better off if more would recognize and realize that...

Sometimes I think you argue a point just to argue.
.
How's that mud pulse telemtery technologogy working out. Seemed like a good idea in the short run as a way to extract more fossil fuels faster and faster....but maybe it's not for the best in the long run.
.
.
The picture captures the times perfectly. What's the point of going to a convention if not for the face to face communication with one's peers. Group social time. Except for that, everything can be done over the Internet
Quoting 242. ycd0108:

#215 LAbonbon:
Thank you for your response to my comment regarding the odd (to me) look of winds and water vapour in the Gulf of Alaska t'other day.
We experience some what more frequent freeze events here than you so I'm trying to think what I would recommend beyond the advice you have gotten since your ask.
Most of the advice I came up with will not be of much use in the short term since it would require plumbing now before the frost.
Letting all faucets leak a little has been mentioned and I can second that.
I like the idea of programming the dish washer and cloths washer to run alternately through the cold night.
I don't have a dish washer (except Tloml or myself in extreme cases) and I doubt our clothes washer has a delay on it's push button control board.
In the longer term I would find the main water shutoff first and foremost!
Or install an accessible shutoff even if you would need to dig up the main supply to do that.
We generally install "Frost Free" outside hose bibs:
http://www.structuretech1.com/2014/02/how-to-prev ent-outside-faucets-from-freezing-2/
here which would solve the long term but not tonight.
Pipe insulation and home insulation - pipes inside the insulation - will also work well.
Now if I had only followed my own advice, eh.
Hopefully the grounds around your house are still well above freezing and these measures should get you through.



Yeah, that is a pretty cool looking system in the GoA. BTW, where are you located?

Thank you for your advice. I know where the water meter is (neighbor's yard), but am totally frustrated that I can't find the one at the house. I like bappit's idea of just draining the water at night so there's no worries whatsoever about frozen pipes...it seems the simplest solution actually. Failing that, I'll do the tried and true (drip water, crank heat, run appliances).

I've learned a lesson though...I truly need to figure out where the closer shutoff is. I'd feel like a total dumb*** if there was an emergency and couldn't shut the water off...and reading other people's stories about their difficulties with frozen pipes makes it something I want to avoid.
NBC News:
Bad News for Florida: Models of Greenland Ice Melting Could Be Way Off

By Miguel Llanos
Existing computer models may be severely underestimating the risk to Greenland's ice sheet — which would add 20 feet to sea levels if it all melted — from warming temperatures, according to two studies released Monday.

Satellite data were instrumental for both studies — one which concludes that Greenland is likely to see many more lakes that speed up melt, and the other which better tracks large glaciers all around Earth's largest island.

The lakes study, published in the peer-reviewed Nature Climate Change, found that what are called "supraglacial lakes" have been migrating inland since the 1970s as temperatures warm, and could double on Greenland by 2060.

[...]
Nature Climate Change
Supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet advance inland under warming climate
(PayWall - abstract w-References only)
Published online: 15 December 2014
Supraglacial lakes (SGLs) form annually on the Greenland ice sheet and, when they drain, their discharge enhances ice-sheet flow by lubricating the base and potentially by warming the ice. Today, SGLs tend to form within the ablation zone, where enhanced lubrication is offset by efficient subglacial drainage. However, it is not clear what impact a warming climate will have on this arrangement. Here, we use an SGL initiation and growth model to show that lakes form at higher altitudes as temperatures rise, consistent with satellite observations. Our simulations show that in southwest Greenland, SGLs spread 103 and 110 km further inland by the year 2060 under moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios, respectively, leading to an estimated 48–53% increase in the area over which they are distributed across the ice sheet as a whole. Up to half of these new lakes may be large enough to drain, potentially delivering water and heat to the ice-sheet base in regions where subglacial drainage is inefficient. In such places, ice flow responds positively to increases in surface water delivered to the bed through enhanced basal lubrication and warming of the ice, and so the inland advance of SGLs should be considered in projections of ice-sheet change.
The night begins here in Porto Alegre, Brazil, with 90ºF with heat index of 98ºF. The TV newscast said that the maximum temperature here in Porto Alegre, doing the capital of state of Rio Grande do Sul the hottest capital of the Brazil tomorrow with 100ºF. Maybe during the night, we can be hit by strong thunderstorms, especially with high winds, something around 65 mph or higher. It is 09:20 PM here.
FXUS62 KMLB 062047 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
[...]
WEDNESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS
WE START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SPILLING
ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE US. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
BREEZY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION LIMITING AFTERNOON
HIGHS. HIGHS RANGING FORM THE THE LOW-MID 60S VOLUSIA/LAKE COUNTIES
WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND LOW 70S SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY WIND PUSH...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS DRY.

WED NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE FROM GFS/NAM/ECMWF STILL KEEP
FREEZING TEMPS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS LAKE AND
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO LOW TO MID 40S FARTHER SOUTH...EXCEPT
LOW 50S ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF MARTIN COUNTY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
HOWEVER WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY THEREFORE STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR VOLUSIA
COUNTY SOUTH TO OKEECHOBEE.

THU-FRI...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
925-850MB FLOW QUICKLY BECOME ONSHORE INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MARINE STRATOCU MOVES ONSHORE AND
PRODUCES ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SFC
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPS AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE
FORECAST TO BE -1C TO -2C (BELOW FREEZING) ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST
(AND NORTHWARD) AT DAYBREAK THU AS INFLUX OF MOISTURE COMES IN
OFF THE ATLC. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW ICE PELLETS
(SLEET) MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH SPRINKLES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA
COAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST.
THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL NOT BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW FLURRIES. BREEZY TO WINDY N/NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THU AND WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER IT SHOULD FEEL RAW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S FROM ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD AND LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND MODELS INDICATE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST
OFFSHORE. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING A SLOW INCREASE BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SAT-MON...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF INCREASE TOWARD LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER GENERAL PATTERN SEEMS TO FAVOR
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SFC
COMBINED WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT SUN-MON LEADING TO RISING
RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL RISE...REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
Quoting 244. Patrap:
"under pressure"

High Pressure Records in Jeopardy Across Great Plains


Crazy s that type of high in the Summer would lead to extreme heat.
Quoting guygee:
NBC News:
Bad News for Florida: Models of Greenland Ice Melting Could Be Way Off

By Miguel Llanos
Existing computer models may be severely underestimating the risk to Greenland's ice sheet — which would add 20 feet to sea levels if it all melted — from warming temperatures, according to two studies released Monday.

Satellite data were instrumental for both studies — one which concludes that Greenland is likely to see many more lakes that speed up melt, and the other which better tracks large glaciers all around Earth's largest island.

The lakes study, published in the peer-reviewed Nature Climate Change, found that what are called "supraglacial lakes" have been migrating inland since the 1970s as temperatures warm, and could double on Greenland by 2060.

[...]
Nature Climate Change
Supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet advance inland under warming climate
(PayWall - abstract w-References only)
Published online: 15 December 2014
Supraglacial lakes (SGLs) form annually on the Greenland ice sheet and, when they drain, their discharge enhances ice-sheet flow by lubricating the base and potentially by warming the ice. Today, SGLs tend to form within the ablation zone, where enhanced lubrication is offset by efficient subglacial drainage. However, it is not clear what impact a warming climate will have on this arrangement. Here, we use an SGL initiation and growth model to show that lakes form at higher altitudes as temperatures rise, consistent with satellite observations. Our simulations show that in southwest Greenland, SGLs spread 103 and 110 km further inland by the year 2060 under moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios, respectively, leading to an estimated 48–53% increase in the area over which they are distributed across the ice sheet as a whole. Up to half of these new lakes may be large enough to drain, potentially delivering water and heat to the ice-sheet base in regions where subglacial drainage is inefficient. In such places, ice flow responds positively to increases in surface water delivered to the bed through enhanced basal lubrication and warming of the ice, and so the inland advance of SGLs should be considered in projections of ice-sheet change.
bad news that people are dumb enough to believe computers and studies
The official forecast for Thursday morning shows the low in Wilmington (NC) falling to 17F with brisk northwest winds. If this verifies, it will break the daily record for January 8 of 20F, set back in...2014.
Quoting 249. StormTrackerScott:



Crazy s that type of high in the Summer would lead to extreme heat.

low 20's in the Panhandle tomorrow night. I checked Orlando's forecast at 37 deg. Is is just me or has Orlando missed out on a real freeze since early 2010?

You're not supposed to be able to grow things like coconut or foxtail palms that far north, but since 2010, it seems as if most tropical plants would be able to survive.
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Tue, Jan 6, 3:57 pm EST
... WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY.
* LOCATIONS... NEW YORK CITY METRO... LONG ISLAND... AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD TYPES... DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
* WIND CHILL READINGS... AS LOW AS 15 BELOW.
* IMPACTS... THE FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE VENTURING OUTSIDE. PROLONGED EXPOSURE MAY CAUSE FROSTBITE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS... MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.


US Wind Chill
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Sometimes I think you argue a point just to argue.
.
How's that mud pulse telemtery technologogy working out. Seemed like a good idea in the short run as a way to extract more fossil fuels faster and faster....but maybe it's not for the best in the long run.
.
.
The picture captures the times perfectly. What's the point of going to a convention if not for the face to face communication with one's peers. Group social time. Except for that, everything can be done over the Internet
That was really the point of my comment. It looked like there was some kind of break in the proceedings. That's when you either talk to those you know or make in-person acquaintances with those you know virtually. I've been to many conventions in my life and it's that kind of informal person to person conversations that do everything from getting a new idea started to getting a better job. I have nothing against smartphones or computers. I have and use both, but being at a convention with your peers is not the time to be looking at your email. If you took the time and incurred the expense of going to a convention, everything important is happening there.

Freeze Watches and Hard Freeze Watches are in effect late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for all of southeast louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens and lower 20s across the hard freeze watch area and into the upper 20s and lower 30s across the freeze watch area. Precautions should be taken to protect any vulnerable people, pets, pipes, and plants before the onset of freezing conditions.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The official forecast for Thursday morning shows the low in Wilmington (NC) falling to 17F with brisk northwest winds. If this verifies, it will break the daily record for January 8 of 20F, set back in...2014.
My records were also set in 2014 but we have a ways to go to beat them. It's 10 degrees for Wednesday and 14 degrees for Thursday. It's hard to believe I'm running around taking in all the plants, trying to protect the ones in the ground, and trying to keep my pipes from bursting again exactly one year later. Quite a coincidence.
Can someone post the latest GFS run?.Thanks.
Quoting opal92nwf:

low 20's in the Panhandle tomorrow night. I checked Orlando's forecast at 37 deg. Is is just me or has Orlando missed out on a real freeze since early 2010?

You're not supposed to be able to grow things like coconut or foxtail palms that far north, but since 2010, it seems as if most tropical plants would be able to survive.
It seems that way. I was in Orlando in 2011 to leave out of there for a cruise. I was quite surprised to see all the tropical plants growing so well, including "house" plants like crotons and ficus trees. Maybe there's a heat island effect going on since Orlando has grown into such a large metro area.
something new on this weatherunder i never saw this before on here

Community Participation
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262. beell
My first earthquake!

On a short overnight business trip today in the Las Colinas area near Irving , TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth area). I was about 5 miles from the estimated epicenter of this M 3.5 quake.

It...was way cool! I wanna do it again.
No damage or injury reports.


usgs.gov
nbcdfw.com/news


look at the radar much less snow on the radar tonight but still very cold outside in the northeast
Quoting pablosyn:
The night begins here in Porto Alegre, Brazil, with 90ºF with heat index of 98ºF. The TV newscast said that the maximum temperature here in Porto Alegre, doing the capital of state of Rio Grande do Sul the hottest capital of the Brazil tomorrow with 100ºF. Maybe during the night, we can be hit by strong thunderstorms, especially with high winds, something around 65 mph or higher. It is 09:20 PM here.
Sounds pretty stifling with the temperature staying so high at night. I've only been to Porto Alegre once and that was in February. I don't think it got to 100 but it was in the high 90's and humid enough to make it very uncomfortable. It's quite a beautiful city but I really feel for the poor that live without air conditioning. It's the very warm and humid nights that I wouldn't be able to take without A/C. I will say the best steak I've ever gotten anywhere was in churrascaria that was near the city center and was so hot that I thought I was going to pass out. The steaks and lots of beer made it all worth it though. :-)
Quoting 260. sar2401:

It seems that way. I was in Orlando in 2011 to leave out of there for a cruise. I was quite surprised to see all the tropical plants growing so well, including "house" plants like crotons and ficus trees. Maybe there's a heat island effect going on since Orlando has grown into such a large metro area.


Quite accurate, Orlando is a big heat island, one of the larger ones in fact (although that doesn't change the warming trend, we are upwards here like everywhere else). We have rarely had below freezing temperatures the past few years. The big freeze in January of 2010 brought icicles on palm trees and ice pellets from the sky, however. As for the plants, every time it hits 40, my gardenia bush looses all signs of life and the elephant ears fall over, but no permanent damage. The downtown area is mostly old Oak trees anyways, and they make it through unscathed.
Quoting beell:
My first earthquake!

On a short overnight business trip today in the Las Colinas area near Irving , TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth area). I was about 5 miles from the estimated epicenter of this M 3.5 quake.

It...was way cool! I wanna do it again.
No damage or injury reports.


usgs.gov
nbcdfw.com/news
LOL. I'm glad you enjoyed it. A 3.5 is kind of like a short amusement park ride that's fun. A 7.0 is like a really long ride that you wish would stop. :-)


the weather for wednesday, jan 7 2015 cold weather in the northeast
A little bit of everything for West Palm Beach this week. From breezy to cool to mild, back to breezy then to showers...

Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

Can someone post the latest GFS run?.Thanks.
So how was today Washi?
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

Can someone post the latest GFS run?.Thanks.
Quoting 259. washingtonian115:

Can someone post the latest GFS run?.Thanks.
Still watching that potential system next week. Other than what's below,EDIT: And some ISOLATED lake-effect snow flurries and snow showers possible tomorrow afternoon, not much on this run.

EDIT:Lol I see Climate beat me there by a few seconds.
Quoting 264. sar2401:

Sounds pretty stifling with the temperature staying so high at night. I've only been to Porto Alegre once and that was in February. I don't think it got to 100 but it was in the high 90's and humid enough to make it very uncomfortable. It's quite a beautiful city but I really feel for the poor that live without air conditioning. It's the very warm and humid nights that I wouldn't be able to take without A/C. I will say the best steak I've ever gotten anywhere was in churrascaria that was near the city center and was so hot that I thought I was going to pass out. The steaks and lots of beer made it all worth it though. :-)


It's great to read that!!! Between January and February 2014 we had almost 3 weeks with temperatures between 100ºF and 110 ºF. In the February 6th we had the record hottest day ever recorded with 110ºF with heat index more than 122ºF during the Heat Dome. In the city of Butiá and Taquara, we had almost 115ºF. In the winter we had 90ºF in June and July, 100ºF and 31ºF in August, 100ºF in September, 105ºF in October, 101ºF in November and last month we had 103,4ºF. 2014 was a hottest year ever recorded here. We never saw a year so hot.
Quoting 269. Climate175:

So how was today Washi?
It was a nice surprise.I had 4.2 inches.I'm hoping though we don't only have to rely on clipers though.
That is the point LAbonbon:
"I truly need to figure out where the closer shutoff is."
Find that thing or dig up your water input line and install a shut-off outside unless you can find the main shut-off in the house.
I'm located near YCD airport.
Quoting 271. Tornado6042008X:

Still watching that potential system next week. Other than what's below,EDIT: And someISOLATED lake-effect snow flurries and snow showers possibletomorrow afternoon, not much on this run.
EDIT:Lol I see Climate beat me there by a few seconds.
Is that the same storm? Or another one?

Quoting 262. beell:

My first earthquake!

On a short overnight business trip today in the Las Colinas area near Irving , TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth area). I was about 5 miles from the estimated epicenter of this M 3.5 quake.

It...was way cool! I wanna do it again.
No damage or injury reports.


usgs.gov
nbcdfw.com/news
like its a ride at disneyland...its ok i wanted to know how it felt when the sonic boom came thru russia :)
Quoting 265. Naga5000:



(although that doesn't change the warming trend, we are upwards here like everywhere else).


I like how you were so quick to note that. :)
A fine cool day. 37/66 and already down to 46 Waiting for the freeze tomorrow night.

Why do colds always hit us at bad times? I don't feel bad at all right now, but my brother whom I'm always in close contact with has a cold. I have plans tomorrow -- namely to smoke with some friends -- but if I wake up sick I'm forgoing that idea in a heartbeat!

Quoting 275. washingtonian115:

Is that the same storm? Or another one?
Its the same storm. 
Quoting 265. Naga5000:


Quite accurate, Orlando is a big heat island, one of the larger ones in fact (although that doesn't change the warming trend, we are upwards here like everywhere else). We have rarely had below freezing temperatures the past few years. The big freeze in January of 2010 brought icicles on palm trees and ice pellets from the sky, however. As for the plants, every time it hits 40, my gardenia bush looses all signs of life and the elephant ears fall over, but no permanent damage. The downtown area is mostly old Oak trees anyways, and they make it through unscathed.


Were lucky just to hit 40 anymore around here. My Crape Mrytles have new leaves on them already which is the earliest I've ever seen. Even the Oaks in my area are beginning to get new leaves which normally doesn't happen until early February.

Quoting 278. DonnieBwkGA:

A fine cool day. 37/66 and already down to 46 Waiting for the freeze tomorrow night.


Just saw this post on the old blog ;)

That model shows cold temps compared to other models.
Quoting 279. KoritheMan:

Why do colds always hit us at bad times? I don't feel bad at all right now, but my brother whom I'm always in close contact with has a cold. I have plans tomorrow -- namely to smoke with some friends -- but if I wake up sick I'm forgoing that idea in a heartbeat!
Put the cig down..its not worth it in the end (Seen to many family members go down that road).
Quoting 280. Tornado6042008X:


Its the same storm. 

I see it was pushed back.
Quoting Naga5000:


Quite accurate, Orlando is a big heat island, one of the larger ones in fact (although that doesn't change the warming trend, we are upwards here like everywhere else). We have rarely had below freezing temperatures the past few years. The big freeze in January of 2010 brought icicles on palm trees and ice pellets from the sky, however. As for the plants, every time it hits 40, my gardenia bush looses all signs of life and the elephant ears fall over, but no permanent damage. The downtown area is mostly old Oak trees anyways, and they make it through unscathed.
My gardenias make it through the teens with no problem but they are old and well established. Some of my other tropicals like my hibiscus have to come in or they just die. Even my very large mondo ferns have to take a trip inside when we get in the teens or they won't make it. Eufaula and Orlando aren't that far apart in air miles, only about 320 miles, but the flora is completely different. I think it's the furthest north city that still looked tropical to me. Something must be helping all those plants survive because they'd never make it up here.

I wonder about the warming though. I know that the overall average temperature is rising but, at least here, winters seem to be getting colder. I moved to Alabama in 2005 so it's been almost 10 years now. The first two winters I was here we had one night below freezing. Since then, we've had more nights below freezing and, starting two years ago, more nights in the teens and even single digits. Something strange is going on.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do colds always hit us at bad times? I don't feel bad at all right now, but my brother whom I'm always in close contact with has a cold. I have plans tomorrow -- namely to smoke with some friends -- but if I wake up sick I'm forgoing that idea in a heartbeat!
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm actually doing weed. :P

inb4 whining about off topic (not you wash) but unless someone other than regular members tell me something, I don't care. Get used to it.
Now Kori, you know that stuff is bad for you. Just try to relax with a good book.

Quoting 287. Grothar:


I smell tropical cyclogenesis.

Quoting 286. Andrebrooks:

Now Kori, you know that stuff is bad for you. Just try to relax with a good book.
I don't have any books! My friend is a science nerd like me though, so maybe we can all circlejerk to that or something. :)
Quoting 287. Grothar:



Blob status?
Quoting KoritheMan:

I don't have any books! My friend is a science nerd like me though, so maybe we can all circlejerk to that or something. :)
Yeah, just read a good book with friends, ok. :)
Quoting Grothar:
Going into a favorable area.
Link

Quoting 291. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Blob status?


No, just arc status. The Blob Observation Group will be closed until June 1.

Quoting 294. Grothar:



No, just arc status. The Blob Observation Group will be closed until June 1.
What's your BlobCon on this, Gro? At least a 1, right?
Quoting 295. KoritheMan:


What's your BlobCon on this, Gro? At least a 1, right?



Conditions hostile. High wind shear. SST's close to TCS but, barely able to support psychogenesis. Baroclinic inversion not conducive. The symmetry would indicate strong wind shear to the south in excess of 80 mph.
The total number of confirmed tornadoes from the January 3-4 outbreak has risen to 19.

Link

FWIW, the largest January tornado outbreak on record occurred from January 21-22, 1999 when 129 tornadoes were recorded. The second largest outbreak for January occurred from January 7-11, 2008 when 75 tornadoes were confirmed. The third largest outbreak for January occurred from January 29-30, 2013 when 65 tornadoes were confirmed.
Currently tracking some snow showers making their way through the central plains and into the Ohio Valley region. SPC mesoscale analysis showing strong mid level frontogenesis associated with these bands, most notably over Kansas. They will be moving southeast to east as they round the the mid level trough over the eastern CONUS. With favorable fetch off Lake Michigan, it will be interesting to see how they progress over night.


299. vis0
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
I believe that all methods of communication are not equal. I'll argue that some methods of communication are inferior to others.

I think if I had an altercation with someone in person (eye to eye, face to face) it would have a different impact than if I were an anonymous person on a blog

       Quoting 206. Neapolitan:

Well, we're not discussing arguments with accompanying fisticuffs here, of course. The OP conjectured that the young people with their noses buried in their glowing cell phones in the image above were obviously inferior communicators. I disagreed with that assumption/assessment, and still do. It seems that, as with music and fashion, every generation is convinced that the technologies used by the generation(s) that follow will lead to the decay and destruction of the human race. In the 1800s, the telegraph was reviled by old-timers, and looked upon as an evil straight from the pits of Hades. Soon to follow was the telephone, then the radio, then the TV, then email, then cell phones. I'm not calling those with such opinions Luddites--most aren't that extreme--but technological progress is inevitable, and generally a good thing for mankind overall. I think we'd be better off if more would recognize and realize that...
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬vis0::      Though i mostly agree with #206 oh wait you have a name "Neapolitan"'s' comment there is one difference with the generation that 'allowed" the young people at age ~7-16 to have "external communication devices" (ecd/etd)) and those young people who use them 25/8.
    ☼ Past generation had their extreme beliefs on either side of whatever was new.
    ☼ From creating language(s) to the wheel to steam engines to the pizza to the TV.   Yet in those cases both, even each side had opinions / reasons formed from thinking OUTSIDE of what they where in favour of or against that they could state, even if it seemed to be a weird reason.
     ☼ This time many of those using "external communication devices" (ecd/etd) in that they are using these "etds" stop exercising their "natural communication devices" (7 senses, conscience etc) so much that if one asks them of how they feel as to their "ecd/etd" they will respond NOT with fervor to defend the etd but say "huh"?
      ☼ When i walk in NYC since the 1990s once in a while as a person whose obviously paying 100% attention to an etd screen i'll say semi-loudly "watch out for the hole"
      In the 1990s i'd say if in a year i said that 30 times 28 looked to see if a whole is in front of them in the ground, the other 2 kept walking.
      In the 2null decade of 30 people, 12 looked for a whole in the ground, 10 looked up towards the sky,???(maybe looking for a dead bird Þ) & 7 kept walking.
      In this present decade of 30, 2 look up (1 in anger, which i understand as i just caused them to lose a game of to 2 young people at the AMS Annual Meeting & SAR2401 on his xbox...SAR2401 won**), the rest just keeping walking as if in a dream.
      ☼ These "etds" are draining the abilities of humans  to expand their thoughts on anything new and instead is being used to do the thinking.
     ☼ i wonder how the pendulum will swing from not thinking to thinking.
      With other new ideas pendulums swung by the weight and use of the new thought, then swung in the other direction by the weight and use of the counter thought and in time led to a balanced thinking of that which was once a "new" thing.  How much weight does "huh" or "no thought" have? The answer my friends i think will be in the wind, the winds of nature bringing some catastrophe (a wxu blogger stated this last sentence a month ago) maybe from outside Earth that kill many and the few begin 9are FORCED) to think how to survive. Maybe since there are so many humans it will help the odds for humans survive such a catastrophe. LOOK OUT A HOLE! (in the SUN, its going to blow out our SATS...if lucky that will not kill as many as a "rock" hitting Earth but will force us to think...first is my ECDs battery dead, you'll see hundreds of people with arms each holding a "ecd" pointing in different directions trying to "gain bars" like MJ zombies in "thriller". Then  they'll curse & cry cause their "best" "friend" died, their ECD  To me ECDs have BECOME AN addiction, an addiction to me is anything that takes over ones conscience.
      ☼ Since its so popular (like coffee) its become an accepted addiction) BTW i have 1 "ecd" use it 1-3 times a month for more than 1 minute, rest of the communications are to call real people to meet them in real life.
     
     
        & nbsp;    **...how?...he put down the etd, read a book, googled a subject on the game & figured how to win, also  to expand his knowledge of new things and picked up a new recipe and gardening tips WHILE still renaming conscious of the world around him.) INjoy
Quoting Drakoen:
Currently tracking some snow showers making their way through the central plains and into the Ohio Valley region. SPC mesoscale analysis showing strong mid level frontogenesis associated with these bands, most notably over Kansas. They will be moving southeast to east as they round the the mid level trough over the eastern CONUS. With favorable fetch off Lake Michigan, it will be interesting to see how they progress over night.


Drak, there's now a little concern down here that at least some parts of central Alabama may see enough CAA combined with an above average PW and baroclinic forcing to produce some snow flurries Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Nothing exciting yet in terms of effects but these thing tend to make forecasters here nervous, especially seeing the strong frontogenesis snow showers already developing up north. The front should be moving through right at the time of the nearly coldest temperatures, along with 25-40 mph winds. It looks like we have a shot of freezing rain or sleet on Friday night as well, and this may cause more problems, depending on how well the shortwave trough can phase with the next slug of cold air. Things should start to warm above freezing Saturday although it looks like fairly widespread but so far light precipitation continues right through Monday. It will be an exciting six days of weather ahead down here.
Quoting vis0:

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬vis0::      Though i mostly agree with #206 oh wait you have a name "Neapolitan"'s' comment there is one difference with the generation that 'allowed" the young people at age ~7-16 to have "external communication devices" (ecd/etd)) and those young people who use them 25/8.
    ☼ Past generation had their extreme beliefs on either side of whatever was new.
    ☼ From creating language(s) to the wheel to steam engines to the pizza to the TV.   Yet in those cases both, even each side had opinions / reasons formed from thinking OUTSIDE of what they where in favour of or against that they could state, even if it seemed to be a weird reason.
     ☼ This time many of those using "external communication devices" (ecd/etd) in that they are using these "etds" stop exercising their "natural communication devices" (7 senses, conscience etc) so much that if one asks them of how they feel as to their "ecd/etd" they will respond NOT with fervor to defend the etd but say "huh"?
      ☼ When i walk in NYC since the 1990s once in a while as a person whose obviously paying 100% attention to an etd screen i'll say semi-loudly "watch out for the hole"
      In the 1990s i'd say if in a year i said that 30 times 28 looked to see if a whole is in front of them in the ground, the other 2 kept walking.
      In the 2null decade of 30 people, 12 looked for a whole in the ground, 10 looked up towards the sky,???(maybe looking for a dead bird Þ) & 7 kept walking.
      In this present decade of 30, 2 look up (1 in anger, which i understand as i just caused them to lose a game of to 2 young people at the AMS Annual Meeting & SAR2401 on his xbox...SAR2401 won**), the rest just keeping walking as if in a dream.
      ☼ These "etds" are draining the abilities of humans  to expand their thoughts on anything new and instead is being used to do the thinking.
     ☼ i wonder how the pendulum will swing from not thinking to thinking.
      With other new ideas pendulums swung by the weight and use of the new thought, then swung in the other direction by the weight and use of the counter thought and in time led to a balanced thinking of that which was once a "new" thing.  How much weight does "huh" or "no thought" have? The answer my friends i think will be in the wind, the winds of nature bringing some catastrophe (a wxu blogger stated this last sentence a month ago) maybe from outside Earth that kill many and the few begin 9are FORCED) to think how to survive. Maybe since there are so many humans it will help the odds for humans survive such a catastrophe. LOOK OUT A HOLE! (in the SUN, its going to blow out our SATS...if lucky that will not kill as many as a "rock" hitting Earth but will force us to think...first is my ECDs battery dead, you'll see hundreds of people with arms each holding a "ecd" pointing in different directions trying to "gain bars" like MJ zombies in "thriller". Then  they'll curse & cry cause their "best" "friend" died, their ECD  To me ECDs have BECOME AN addiction, an addiction to me is anything that takes over ones conscience.
      ☼ Since its so popular (like coffee) its become an accepted addiction) BTW i have 1 "ecd" use it 1-3 times a month for more than 1 minute, rest of the communications are to call real people to meet them in real life.
     
     
        & amp; nbsp;    **...how?...he put down the etd, read a book, googled a subject on the game & figured how to win, also  to expand his knowledge of new things and picked up a new recipe and gardening tips WHILE still renaming conscious of the world around him.) INjoy
Vis, your insights never fail to amaze me. I still need to be convinced about the whole ml-d thing but you have one of the most creative minds I've seen in a long time.

I didn't mean to start a long back and forth about this but the picture is so large that it really got my attention. It just seems logical to me that, when surrounded by people who are you professional or avocational peers (or maybe way above being your peer), and you paid to go to a convention to be with all these people, it's a real good idea to talk to them, and to do so for as much as those few days permit. You can check your "ECD" (LOL) before you go to bed. :-)

Quoting 296. Grothar:



Conditions hostile. High wind shear. SST's close to TCS but, barely able to support psychogenesis. Baroclinic inversion not conducive. The symmetry would indicate strong wind shear to the south in excess of 80 mph.
Of course not. I conceptualized psychogenesis and promptly applied it to myself.
Quoting pablosyn:


It's great to read that!!! Between January and February 2014 we had almost 3 weeks with temperatures between 100ºF and 110 ºF. In the February 6th we had the record hottest day ever recorded with 110ºF with heat index more than 122ºF during the Heat Dome. In the city of Butiá and Taquara, we had almost 115ºF. In the winter we had 90ºF in June and July, 100ºF and 31ºF in August, 100ºF in September, 105ºF in October, 101ºF in November and last month we had 103,4ºF. 2014 was a hottest year ever recorded here. We never saw a year so hot.
It seems as if we are starting to get a repeat of our January weather in the northern hemisphere as well. Maybe there's some connection. Do you know far your weather records go back? I know Porto Alegre is a very old city and that it has been an intellectual center of Brazil for much of that time, so I assume the records go back for a long time, but I haven't been able to find the information online. The thing about records is that they exist because we have averages, so some years are going to outliers. This may be connected to global warming or it may simply be hot and we just haven't occupied an area long enough to know how hot it can really get. I don't know the answer but I know that 100 degrees with the humidity you have down there is very much like our summer heat waves and it's not much fun.


i am happy the cold weather is coming now its winter time!!
Quoting 289. KoritheMan:


I smell tropical cyclogenesis.

maybe invest soon ..
Wolf Point MT may be the place to watch for a new pressure record in the lower 48. Only 605 meters ASL.

Pressure records have to be set at stations 750 meters ASL or below.
Quoting 282. Tornado6042008X:

Just saw this post on the old blog ;)

That model shows coldtemps compared to other models.


I thought I'd put up the most dramatic model since no one on wunderground has ever done that before ;)
Quoting 268. GeoffreyWPB:

A little bit of everything for West Palm Beach this week. From breezy to cool to mild, back to breezy then to showers...




It's amazing how much warmer that part of the state can be than up here this time of the year, in contrast, here are the next several days in Tallahassee, we are in the same state, but the temp difference looks 2 states north lol:

Overnight Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph.

Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 57. Light north northwest wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning.

Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Sunny, with a high near 41. Wind chill values as low as 15. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Calm wind.

Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Quoting 300. sar2401:

Drak, there's now a little concern down here that at least some parts of central Alabama may see enough CAA combined with an above average PW and baroclinic forcing to produce some snow flurries Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Nothing exciting yet in terms of effects but these thing tend to make forecasters here nervous, especially seeing the strong frontogenesis snow showers already developing up north. The front should be moving through right at the time of the nearly coldest temperatures, along with 25-40 mph winds. It looks like we have a shot of freezing rain or sleet on Friday night as well, and this may cause more problems, depending on how well the shortwave trough can phase with the next slug of cold air. Things should start to warm above freezing Saturday although it looks like fairly widespread but so far light precipitation continues right through Monday. It will be an exciting six days of weather ahead down here.
Yes there is an outside chance for that to occur. Had to check the 00z soundings to verify this. Steep lapse rates and low level instability are present. I think the Tennessee River Valley is in much better shape though.
Is there something weird going on with the graphics next to the daily forecasts on the NWS site for certain locations? For example, go to the NWS homepage and search Lansing, MI. There is a partial picture of the top half of a man's face. Huh?
cold cometh
Quoting 262. beell:

My first earthquake!

On a short overnight business trip today in the Las Colinas area near Irving , TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth area). I was about 5 miles from the estimated epicenter of this M 3.5 quake.

It...was way cool! I wanna do it again.
No damage or injury reports.


usgs.gov
nbcdfw.com/news


I have been to the river walk in Las Colinas. It is small, but very nice. Very clean.
This cold front will be yet another repeat of the cold fronts of last and this winter, where there is a particularly large spread in temps within the state of FL. North FL getting much more impressive cold (relative to normal) than Central and especially South FL. For example, Crestview, FL is supposed to be 19F tomorrow night and Orlando 40F (no big deal here in January), according to the NWS. In contrast, Miami will see a low of 60F (the lowest low in the next week, and the average low for this time of year in Miami). The lowest for Key West will be 63F.
316. vis0
Quoting 301. sar2401:

Vis, your insights never fail to amaze me. I still need to be convinced about the whole ml-d thing but you have one of the most creative minds I've seen in a long time.

I didn't mean to start a long back and forth about this but the picture is so large that it really got my attention. It just seems logical to me that, when surrounded by people who are you professional or avocational peers (or maybe way above being your peer), and you paid to go to a convention to be with all these people, it's a real good idea to talk to them, and to do so for as much as those few days permit. You can check your "ECD" (LOL) before you go to bed. :-)
  ;    Ω Here an idea from my 1980s notes.
     Ω As i stated a blog or so ago i will be posting ideas here for anyone to use. (on Dr. Masters & Bob ~once a month, it'll last for 9 yrs in doing so...though by then these ideas should have been thought up by other) If you want check to see if the idea has already been in circulation or creation by Googling copyrights. ) i purposely leave out parts or names of materials that can be used in each idea to create that "to be" invention, so those whom care dig deeper to figure out the "to be" invention, those whom don't care to work a bit go read your spam...  (just like i did before i DEL my ml-d clues)...Tazbot stop reading the back of the SPAM container.(i pick on Taz 'cause i think Taz is cool)
     Ω If there is no such idea being copyrighted run (CAREFULLY, no scissors in hands please) and get it copyrighted. i've explained why i prefer to see 100 people create ideas from clues to ideas i posted than me create 100 inventions.  NO not to pay off LIVES of bad karma.
     Ω Read of pipes freezing.
     Ω AGAIN THIS SHOULD ALREADY EXISTS BUT IF NOT HERE IT IS::  How 'bout a set temperature pipe sleeve (With what material???, think of a material that can conduct heat but does not over heat - are 3 metals i know of that do this).  Weave that material  in a criss-cross patterned sleeve ~12-18 wire gauge with 1 inch spaces in-between, though that space differs on how warm these pipe's electrical socks can get.  Once this sleeve is placed around a pipe by either wrapping or sliding it on (if its a new to be installed pipe, slide on before you bury it) make sure that at the end closest to the home/complex it has the frayed ends of that material joined to solar powered batteries. These batteries need not be of high storage (SAR or Grothar put down the campers AC monster batteries) as you'll use them to cause the criss-crossed sleeves to warm TO THE LIMIT of that wire or a blend not burn them out. If the wires can heat up to 10 degrees then a company can blend that material with another material so its less pure therefore only heats / warms up to 5 degrees and sell both types with temperature ratings.   Understand one has to create this intertwined sleeve in a manner that conducts this heat INSIDE this criss-crossed sleeve THROUGHOUT the sleeve not just the first intertwined loop, think non leeching plastics as insulators. A clock with a temperature regulator can turn them on if one is too busy checking on their cell msgs. Makes me wonder though USofA citizens have had less physical " junk mail" since the 1990s how much more "junk eMail" has replaced that. i know its harder to stop.
     Ω The idea i sent a Florida friend (1980s) whom was looking for a manner to keep the low level cold from affecting her planets. i said create a fence that conducts heat wrap around her garden (was a 10' by 20' garden)so cooler air in being lower and flowing through a fence warms up...the next day her boyfriend proposed they married & moved, she never had the idea tested.
Shared it with 2 people on green thumb type blogs no replies, i figure only works for small gardens. Now (since 1990s) with innovative solar panels it might have a chance BUT REMEMBER if one wants to clean up earth the real Soalr power is wind not light)
Quoting 265. Naga5000:



Quite accurate, Orlando is a big heat island, one of the larger ones in fact (although that doesn't change the warming trend, we are upwards here like everywhere else). We have rarely had below freezing temperatures the past few years. The big freeze in January of 2010 brought icicles on palm trees and ice pellets from the sky, however. As for the plants, every time it hits 40, my gardenia bush looses all signs of life and the elephant ears fall over, but no permanent damage. The downtown area is mostly old Oak trees anyways, and they make it through unscathed.


I agree as I live in suburban Orlando and I have landscaped my yard as if I lived in Miami and last year I had cosmetic damage on a few plants from a low of 31-32 but lost nothing. So far so good this year. I also irrigated amply through our extended dry season so I am sure that helped. One thing is for sure though, our city's climate (and landscaping possibilities) is not what it used to be. Freezes are no longer an every year occurrence. We now have a climate more like Fort Myers, with cooler daytime highs.

P.S., I have not been smoking, but have definitely been drinking;)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:23 AM WST January 7 2015
=================================

A slow moving low pressure system lies overland just to the east of Derby. This system is expected to remain overland over the western Kimberley then move eastwards on the weekend. There is only a small chance that the system moves over water and develops during Thursday and Friday.

Despite being unlikely to become a tropical cyclone, this system will produce squally thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and strong to gale force winds to parts of the Kimberley over the next three days before conditions begin to ease over the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
Thursday: LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: VERY LOW


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:31 PM EST January 7 2015
=================================

A developing monsoon trough currently lies over the far northern Coral Sea with a weak low embedded in the trough in the Solomon Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further as it drifts south into the Coral Sea during the week. There is no significant risk of tropical cyclone development in the short term. The situation will be monitored carefully.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
Thursday: VERY LOW
Friday: LOW
Saturday: LOW
Quoting 287. Grothar:





6ºF here just outside of Peoria in Central Illinois just after 2 AM .. forecast to go down to -8º F with a high of -2º on Wednesday !!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4NlbFuIJT4


Last night, around 3:06 AM, a meteor ignited the night sky over Romania. You can se the reflexion in the car's rear window.
Good morning with serious weather in the Eastern Mediterranean:


Serious Flood in Byblos, Lebanon | 06-01-2015


Storm surge ravaging the city of Beirut/Lebanon

Levant braces for violent Huda snowstorm
Gulf News 3 hours ago
Storm named Huda expected to hit the region hard
Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan and several other countries in the Levant yesterday braced for a major snowstorm that threatened to bury parts of the Middle East in snow.
The snowstorm - called Huda in Jordan and Palestine and Zina in Lebanon - was poised to hit the Levant with full force last night and continue until Sunday.
Lebanon halted maritime traffic in its southern ports of Sidon and Tyre as a result of violent winds from the incoming storm, which damaged property and knocked out power in parts of the country on Tuesday. ...


Israel braces itself as rains, winds and snow bear down
Power outages reported throughout the country on first night of what is predicted to be a major winter storm
Times of Israel, By Itamar Sharon, Marissa Newman and Lazar Berman January 7, 2015, 7:10 am


Airmasses over Eastern Europe/Mediterranean (orange = cold; blue und green = warm).

And over the Atlantic more of "Christian" comes into sight:




GFS loop Europe for the next days (click it).
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

FLZ024-GAZ154-166-072000-
/O.UPG.KJAX.HZ.A.0001.150108T0300Z-150108T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.HZ.W.0001.150108T0500Z-150108T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.WI.Y.0001.150108T0100Z-150108T1500Z/
NASSAU-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS
355 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
11 AM EST THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION...EXPOSED PIPES...AND PEOPLE
SENSITIVE TO THE COLD SHOULD BE PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
27 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH
ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 57 MPH OR
GREATER AT ANY TIME.

MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE.

MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILES VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION
UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES.

STRONG WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS OFF HOUSES...
AND DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE...AND ANY OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
WEATHER.

&&
Have fun in your cold over there ;-)


Jan. 6, 2015: As the year's first blanket of snow coated the Washington, D.C. area today, giant panda Bao Bao spent much of the morning playing in it for the very first time. The sixteen month-old panda cub tumbled down the hill in her outdoor enclosure, climbed trees and pounced on her mother Mei Xiang. Our great cats, seals and wolves also enjoyed the wintry weather.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 11:23 am WST on Wednesday 7 January 2015
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 10 January 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A slow moving low pressure system lies over land just to the east of Derby. This system is expected to remain over land over the western Kimberley then move eastwards on the weekend. There is only a small chance that the system moves over water and develops during Thursday and Friday.

Despite being unlikely to become a tropical cyclone, this system will produce squally thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and strong to gale force winds to parts of the Kimberley over the next three days before conditions begin to ease over the weekend. Please refer to flood and severe weather warnings at www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday Low
Friday Low
Saturday Very Low



There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are forecast
to develop over the next three days.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
_________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _____

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:16 pm CST on Wednesday 7 January 2015
for the period until midnight CST Saturday 10 January 2015.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. The monsoon trough extends from a low over the Kimberley, across base of the Top End and through the Gulf of Carpentaria. A tropical low may form in the Gulf of Carpentaria during the next few days as the trough becomes more active. The situation will be closely monitored.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Thursday:Very Low.
Friday:Low.
Saturday:Low.


_________________________________________________ _______________________________________

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:31 pm EST on Wednesday 7 January 2015
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 10 January 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A developing monsoon trough currently lies over the far northern Coral Sea with
a weak low embedded in the trough in the Solomon Sea. The monsoon trough is
expected to develop further as it drifts south into the Coral Sea during the
week. There is no significant risk of tropical cyclone development in the short
term. The situation will be monitored carefully.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday Very low
Friday Low
Saturday Low



Very Low:less than 5%
Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%
High:over 50%





Is it just me, or does the photo at the end of the article show a surprising percentage of attendees who are there in body - but whose minds are focused on glowing little hand-held rectangles of plastic?
It's been relatively quiet this winter in the UK, compared with last winter's record storminess, when a stuck jet stream loop just kept on bringing gale after gale. It's currently blowing a gale (70 mph gusts), here in southern Scotland, but nothing exceptional for the time of year. However, the Met Office are predicting something a bit stronger for Thurs/Fri, with damaging 90 mph gusts being forecast. And more predicted for over the weekend. It's that pesky jet stream, again. Anyone know if the current pattern is similar to last year's?

90 mph winds to batter UK
Expecting a low of 46 here in Fort Myers.

Quoting 327. panzerfaust:

Is it just me, or does the photo at the end of the article show a surprising percentage of attendees who are there in body - but whose minds are focused on glowing little hand-held rectangles of plastic?


You're late to the party which was going on last night since post #156 ;-)
Guess Bob Henson might be surprised which part of his entry drew most attention in this blog, lol.
The highest pressure in the lower 48 so far has been 1057.7 mb at Wolf point, MT at 3 am MST.
Quoting 285. sar2401:

My gardenias make it through the teens with no problem but they are old and well established. Some of my other tropicals like my hibiscus have to come in or they just die. Even my very large mondo ferns have to take a trip inside when we get in the teens or they won't make it. Eufaula and Orlando aren't that far apart in air miles, only about 320 miles, but the flora is completely different. I think it's the furthest north city that still looked tropical to me. Something must be helping all those plants survive because they'd never make it up here.

I wonder about the warming though. I know that the overall average temperature is rising but, at least here, winters seem to be getting colder. I moved to Alabama in 2005 so it's been almost 10 years now. The first two winters I was here we had one night below freezing. Since then, we've had more nights below freezing and, starting two years ago, more nights in the teens and even single digits. Something strange is going on.



Your little part of the U.S. is the anomaly temperature wise:



Anyways, back to the gardenias...I'm curious. My bush has been here since 1996, yet when it hits 40ish all the leaves fall off and it looks dead until the temperature moderates and the leaves begin to grow back. Does this happen to yours or do mine need to toughen up? :)
Awaiting my daily dose of the next hammering of FL with rain, super El Nino forecasts and the 2015 hurricane season bust. :)
Warm Pool that is in the Indian Ocean continues to grow and is heading for the W-Pac.

StormTrackerScott's favorite song, updated

Quoting 337. tampabaymatt:




More less a glancing blow here especially for Eastern & SE FL as winds are projected to veer from the NNE or NE late tonight and may even get some rain off and on along the coast starting around daybreak.


I am not looking forward to this cold snap, unless snow is involved this weekend!!!
Bring on the beach weather!
Finally have a coating of snow. It looks beautiful outside.
Quoting 335. DonnieBwkGA:

StormTrackerScott's favorite song, updated




No more like this.

Link
Quoting 338. StormTrackerScott:



More less a glancing blow here especially for Eastern & SE FL as winds are projected to veer from the NNE or NE late tonight and may even get some rain off and on along the coast starting around daybreak.





If we don't get any sort of winter in C FL, the skeeters are going to be insane this summer.
Found this from NWS Miami to be both interesting and heartening:

THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL BE RACING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SE CONUS
BY LATE THURSDAY...MEANING COOLER AIR IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
VERY SHORT-LIVED.


LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA...KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A WARM AND HUMID
AIR-MASS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
JANUARY
...
Quoting 342. tampabaymatt:



If we don't get any sort of winter in C FL, the skeeters are going to be insane this summer.


They already are especially in shaded areas around where I live. It's been years since we've had a freeze here. I think since 2011 maybe 2012.


What amazes me is just how cold its been across N FL but the cold seems to always stop around Ocala or The Villages. Gainesville is expecting lows in the mid 20's tonight while Orlando is expecting a low of 40 if not warmer depending on when the NE flow kicks in. as the SST's off FL are very warm right now. A NE flow off near 80 degree SST's will really keep temps moderated across Eastern FL tonight.




Quoting 344. Neapolitan:

Found this from NWS Miami to be both interesting and heartening:

THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL BE RACING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SE CONUS
BY LATE THURSDAY...MEANING COOLER AIR IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
VERY SHORT-LIVED.


LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA...KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A WARM AND HUMID
AIR-MASS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
JANUARY
...


Good news is it looks wet for C & S FL Sunday thru Monday.
Quoting 344. Neapolitan:

Found this from NWS Miami to be both interesting and heartening:

THE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL BE RACING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN OFFSHORE SE CONUS
BY LATE THURSDAY...MEANING COOLER AIR IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
VERY SHORT-LIVED.


LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA...KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A WARM AND HUMID
AIR-MASS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
JANUARY
...


Tha's ok, we'll cool down again on Thursday/Friday next week. Looking forward to it!
Quoting capeflorida:


Tha's ok, we'll cool down again on Thursday/Friday next week. Looking forward to it!
Possibly, but only from above-normal to normal:



And if we can keep the 30s at bay for another two or three weeks after that, we may yet get out of this winter without any true Arctic air making its way down here to paradise. Keeping my fingers crossed...
Anybody catch this from NWS in JAX this morning. Yikes!


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015


FLZ024-GAZ154-166-072000-
/O.UPG.KJAX.HZ.A.0001.150108T0300Z-150108T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.HZ.W.0001.150108T0500Z-150108T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.WI.Y.0001.150108T0100Z-150108T1500Z/
NASSAU-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS
355 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
11 AM EST THURSDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.


* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION...EXPOSED PIPES...AND PEOPLE
SENSITIVE TO THE COLD SHOULD BE PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
27 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH
ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 57 MPH OR
GREATER AT ANY TIME.

MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE.

MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILES VEHICLES ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION
UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES.

STRONG WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES...BLOW WEAKENED ROOFS OFF HOUSES...
AND DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO SECURE TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE...AND ANY OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

PERSONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
WEATHER.
353. MahFL
The Wolf Point data now looks corrupt, went from 1054 to 955 in one hour :

06 Jan 10:53 pm MST -2 -9 71 -14 W 6 10.00 CLR 955.3 31.00 28.862 4 -3 OK
06 Jan 9:53 pm MST 4 -6 63 -7 W 6 10.00 CLR 1054.2 30.97 28.834 OK
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
355. MahFL
Aberdeen, SD is at 1054.4 mb.
Quoting 327. panzerfaust:

Is it just me, or does the photo at the end of the article show a surprising percentage of attendees who are there in body - but whose minds are focused on glowing little hand-held rectangles of plastic?



Hello little screen of glowing pixels.

I await your instructions
Quoting 285. sar2401:

My gardenias make it through the teens with no problem but they are old and well established. Some of my other tropicals like my hibiscus have to come in or they just die. Even my very large mondo ferns have to take a trip inside when we get in the teens or they won't make it. Eufaula and Orlando aren't that far apart in air miles, only about 320 miles, but the flora is completely different. I think it's the furthest north city that still looked tropical to me. Something must be helping all those plants survive because they'd never make it up here.

I wonder about the warming though. I know that the overall average temperature is rising but, at least here, winters seem to be getting colder. I moved to Alabama in 2005 so it's been almost 10 years now. The first two winters I was here we had one night below freezing. Since then, we've had more nights below freezing and, starting two years ago, more nights in the teens and even single digits. Something strange is going on.




My gardenias in the DC metro area stay green and healthy looking most of the year but when temps go below about 25F I have to protect or bring them in. They only bloom in warm humid weather which here means June. They don't like the high heat we get here in midsummer. I'd really like a longer blooming period rather than just Memorial day to July 4 with a few scattered blooms until October. In cool dry weather, the buds just seem to sit and not open until they die. In really hot weather the plants look happy and grow fast but the buds drop. Most of my plants are propagated from cuttings of a plant I bought from a florist in 2008. A second strain of "Hardy" gardenias originate from cuttings from a neighbor's 30 year old in ground bush. This neighbor's looked dead spring 2014 after the harsh whipsaw temperatures of the winter. However it started budding from the bigger branches in mid June. My cuttings are a foot tall and bloomed this year but blooming period is even shorter than my other strain.


I remember the 1980s being a period of extraordinary arctic outbreaks in the Southeast although not otherwise cold. I still don't know why this decade produced so many compared with previous and following ones.