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Arctic Air Heads For Central United States

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:01 PM GMT on January 02, 2015

WEATHERINTEL SERVICES
02-JAN-15 (Next Update SUNDAY – JAN 4)

By Steve Gregory for vacationing Jeff Masters


MAJOR STORM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR PLUNGE

A storm system will be forming over Northeast Texas/Arkansas tonight and will head towards the southeastern Great Lakes on Saturday and then up the St. Lawrence River Valley Sunday. Locally heavy rains, snow and potential ice storm conditions will accompany this major storm, but it appears quite likely a mostly rain events is in store for the major coastal cities of the Northeast – while ice storm conditions could occur over interior New England and the higher elevation or the northeast. The track on this storm has been 'rock solid' for well over a week now.

Arctic air will be surging southward behind the storm, with a secondary arctic front / Alberta Clipper moving through the Midwest early next week. Extremely cold air will follow behind this second disturbance – especially in the Midwest – with Temperatures to fall below zero across the upper Midwest.

A large scale upper level TROF covers much of North America, with high level ridging along the west coast of North America. This upper level flow pattern will continue to dominate the US weather for the next 10 days, but most models continue to show a gradual breakdown of the EPAC /Western US Ridge during Week 2, with a more zonal-like flow working its way across the nation in 12-15 days. This progressive and somewhat more zonal flow is supported by the intensifying MJO in the western Pacific (see below Figures), and the overall SST anomalies across the Pacific Basin. Model trends still suggest near or above normal average Temperatures across much of the nation (with the exception of the Northeast) during the middle of the month – with a potential for it to continue well into the second half of JAN. Regardless, the progressive nature to the hemispheric flow suggests any surges of very cold arctic air will be relatively brief (as in 3-6 days) versus ‘month long’ type cold as was experienced last year.



CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 1: The various global model forecasts valid on the evening of JAN 11 ... There is now fairly decent agreement among the various global models at 10 Days out with the operational GFS still showing a colder bias in the central and eastern US compared to the European model (and is accepted). But in general – a progressive and somewhat zonal-like flow is shown by all models across much of North America during Week 2 – a pattern that supports near or above normal Temps developing during the week. The 15 Day GFS from last evening shows a general continuation of this more zonal-like pattern going into the 3rd week of JAN.



Fig 2: The MJO (top panel above) has continued to become better organized and somewhat stronger – with most models now forecasting a much stronger MJO signal propagating across the West Pacific during Week 2. A Phase 5 location statistically supports a milder pattern over the US. The bottom forecast graphic shows the expected area of enhanced convection (green shading) and suppressed convection (yellow shading) associated with the eastward moving MJO signal. The relatively strong signal shown in the eastern Pacific 15 Days out (bottom most panel) is the strongest I can recall in that region in over 2 years. IF IT VERIFIES – very strong forcing on the atmospheric pattern from the equatorial Pacific will develop over North America during the second half of JAN.




Fig 3: The above 2 images show the SST anomaly during late DEC (top panel) and Sea Surface Heights (SSH) as measured by satellite imagery (bottom panels) during early and mid DEC. A large heat sink covers the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific, which has helped maintain the weak El Niño condition. Though SST anomalies actually fell slightly in late DEC in the Niño 3.4 region as easterly trades increased – the warm sub-surface Temps as shown by the above normal SSH’s will continue supporting a weak El Niño. The anomalous SST pattern across the rest of the Pacific (Top graphic) has been a major player in this winters’ atmospheric pattern, forcing the jet stream to take on a more zonal pattern across much of the North Pacific (NORPAC). Since a broad zonal pattern is NOT typical for the cold season, weather systems have been highly progressive for this time of year and has led to the relatively moderate winter Temperature pattern overall.




Fig 4: The GFS Ensemble forecasts for 8-10 days out shows a highly zonal flow across the Pacific with an upper level High to the NW of the Aleutians – where the semi-permanent ‘Aleutian Low’ is normally located. (This pattern has led to the periodic weakening/breakdown of the EPAC Ridge and a moderate Temp pattern downstream across North America.) With the exception off the Northeast – the above normal heights and westerly flow into North America suggests moderate Temps during mid and possibly the last part of JAN.




Fig 5: The Temperature anomaly forecast is based STRICTLY on the GFS MOS model data output which calls for below normal Temperatures on average – with very cold conditions in the Midwest next week. The near normal readings in the Northeast will fall below normal after the storm passage by early Monday.




Fig 6: The Week 2 Temperature ANOMALY forecast is based on the 12Z run of the HI-RES operational GFS (75%) integrated with the 00Z EURO model (5%), the 12Z EURO ensemble mean (10%) and the 12Z GFS Ensemble (10%) - using the projected pattern, along with the GFS surface and 850mb Temperature forecasts. Some Temp forecasts are adjusted for known or expected anomalous thermal patterns and/or projected storm systems. Though below normal Temps will still hold on in the Great Lakes and Northeast – it appears a moderating trend will be overspreading much of the nation again during the second half of Week 2. Confidence in the general Temp anomaly pattern and its absolute values, is near average, with a rating of ‘3’ on a Scale of ‘1-5’ for both metrics.

✭ My next update will be on SUNDAY – JAN 04 on my own WU Blog✭

Steve

NOTES:

1. A GENERAL Glossary of Weather Terms can be found HERE

2. Another Glossary of weather terms is available HERE


2 Week Temperature Forecast Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 489. BaltimoreBrian:



That's a nice soundtrack for an early Sunday morning :)


temp at 8am on jan 4 2015 i see a temp of -24F!! WOW!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CUTHBERT...

* UNTIL 915 AM EST

* AT 835 AM EST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CUTHBERT...OR NEAR
FORT GAINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SHELLMAN AND CUTHBERT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
Quoting 490. Tropicsweatherpr:


That configuration looks modoki. But at the rate Nino 3.4 is going no El Nino will show up soon. That graphic is long range and it includes the spring barrier when models are less reliable so I prefer to wait to see if that big warm pool in Indian Ocean/West Pacific makes it intact eastward and then we will go from there.


I agree there doesn't appear to be any El-Nino until Summer or Fall now as the CPC will not declare El-Nino with a ESPI of -.70. It looks as if El-Nino may have to wait and see what this next warm pool does but you can't ignore the persistance of the CFSv2 and the Euro right as they seem to be mirroring each other.

I also agree that the image I posted does look modoki. Remember 2004 was a modoki season so this is going to be interesting as we go forward.
With so much heat in place we need to watch this complex in the Gulf just in case it doesn't weaken as the models say it will.



who wanted to dance outside with a -47F
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
837 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CUTHBERT...

* UNTIL 915 AM EST

* AT 835 AM EST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CUTHBERT...OR NEAR
FORT GAINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SHELLMAN AND CUTHBERT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHERN ALABAMA.


watch out here
Coldest Temperatures of the Season Are on the Way for Midwest, East


Coldest Temperatures of the Winter So Far
This second round begins Tuesday in the Northern Plains as a reinforcing shot of cold air behind a clipper system will surge south and east reaching the East Coast and South by Thursday.

High temperatures are expected to be up to 35 degrees below average in parts of the Midwest by midweek. Chicago may see a subzero high temperature on Wednesday. The last time the mercury did not reach zero was on January 6 of last year. Chicago may also set a daily record cold high temperature on Wednesday (current record is 3 degrees set just last year) and a record low temperature on Thursday morning (current record is 10 degrees below zero).
Subzero temperatures are also on the way for Minneapolis. The coldest temperature so far this season is 7 degrees below zero and next week low temperatures are expected to plunge 10 to 15 degrees below zero.

A stretch of below-freezing temperatures may be in store for New York next week as the current forecast has temperatures below 32 degrees from Monday night to Sunday afternoon.

Boston is expected to see the coldest conditions so far this winter as lows may drop down into the single digits for Thursday morning. The lowest temperature so far this season is 18 which was recorded on December 8.

Gusty winds will accompany the cold temperatures as a strong area of high pressure builds in behind the clipper system. These gusty winds will make it feel even colder. Wind chill values are expected to be below zero for much of the Midwest and Northeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning and in the single digits for parts of the Southeast.



round two of the cold weather late week to!


on January 04, 2015
Quoting vis0:

you can record how a breeze follows me around maybe meet in central park as if by accident.
there were lines , wooden 7,s wooden lint checker candler and globed fur. this cannot becarbomidewhen diatoms fall
513. beell
Quoting 493. StAugustineFL:



Pretty darned good unofficial tornado risk guess beell when comparing with the SPC storm reports from yesterday.




Thanks for the honorable mention, Aug. Appreciate it!

Very similar set-up to 12/23. Maximized convergence along the pre-frontal trough. Probably see a couple more reports outside the box (to the NE) with the light of day.



Quoting 25. JohnLonergan:

Warmest Year Ever for World's Longest Temperature Record

That's the Hadley Centre's "Central England Temperature (CET)," of course.



Click to enlarge
More ...
where is the anomaly of the SST wunderground.com?
517. Patrap
Comments: 130000

Not that it matters but just putting it out there since the blog is quiet.
Quoting 516. pablosyn:

where is the anomaly of the SST wunderground.com?


I went to where I thought they would be, on WU's Hurricane & Tropical Cyclones page, looked on the right under 'Hurricane Resources', but the dropdown menus don't work.

I went to Classic WU's Tropical Page, where if you scroll down to 'Helpful Online Resources' there are a handful of links under 'Sea Surface Temperature Data'. Unfortunately, half of these links don't work. Maybe one of the working links is what you're looking for?
Wow..thanx

I wish it was a nickel a comment.

Been a good run.

We were social networking here way before the rest of the web caught on.

And some good offshoots have come about..

Thats the good part. Hopefully.


SPC AC 041605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTH FL INTO SC...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SC INTO EASTERN VA...

...SUMMARY...
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...THE CAROLINAS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

...GA/FL/SC...
MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A PERSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FL...SOUTHEAST
GA...AND SOUTHERN SC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW PERSISTENT
ROTATIONAL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE LINE...AND SOME
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THE RISK OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAKING IT
TO THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.
AMBIENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN/VEER SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER WINDS AND MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF
LINE SUGGEST THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
QLCS TORNADO OR TWO. ITS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THE RISK OF MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND. HOWEVER...SEVERAL RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MOST ROBUST CONVECTION WILL EXIST FROM SOUTHERN SC
SOUTHWARD.

..HART/COHEN.. 01/04/2015

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1621Z (10:21AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
How long do we have to put up with the bold type?
Its a error in the header, it will remain until it is fixed or until a new entry post.

Quoting 117. Patrap:


A Bolding "" was left open in the entryin the last sentence and that is what is causing the bolding.

It's just a bolding character dropped in the new entry.


If one isn't familiar with the "preview entry" feature in posting a entry,for those of us who do write actual blogs, it does happen.

All the following HTML coding is affected by the open bolding. Till the entry is fixed, it will remain.

Quoting LAbonbon:
The front finally came through here at 0647 according to the rain gauge. We never had enough thunder or lightning to wake up me or Radar Dog, and he gets excited if he thinks he hears thunder. All the heavy weather went south of me. After reviewing the NWS watches and warnings, it looks like Barbour County was one of the few in south central Alabama that was never under any kind of weather warning. The front moved like a Model A with seized up wheel bearings but LA Bon Bon is the precip winner, since I was whining about getting nothing and I actually got 0.33". Hooray! Not enough for a flash flood warning but better than nothing. Beell is the watch box winner, since he called the storms early on and just about nailed most of the action...although he should have moved it a little east. :-) It looks like the only tornadoes were up in Lamar and Winston Counties, right on the Mississippi border and the last counties in the BMX CWA north before Huntsville.

We were very lucky. I haven't heard of any serious injuries or deaths from the tornadoes in Mississippi or Alabama. We had a period when this site was down at about 4:00 pm where we had a huge increase in low level shear and almost every thunderstorm on the MS and AL line, the area of the apparent tornadoes, was spinning. The shear quit abruptly as the low moved more quickly NE and there were no more apparent tornadoes reported after that. The storms system brought mostly minor flooding but 2-4" of beneficial rain to most places in both states. I'm thankful for even my relatively small amount of rain and that this system didn't cause more destruction or loss of life. The system was a good example of the type of severe storms we get here in the winter, when it looks like no big deal to start and then things can escalate rapidly.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
How long do we have to put up with the bold type?
Until someone with the authority can take 10 seconds to close the open bold tag at the end of Steve's post or his gets deleted and we get a new blog post. The mods have done all they can to locate someone to fix the problem. The blog was down for an hour and 15 minutes yesterday afternoon and we're lucky they got that fixed. We are not a high priority to TWC.
Quoting LAbonbon:


I went to where I thought they would be, on WU's Hurricane & Tropical Cyclones page, looked on the right under 'Hurricane Resources', but the dropdown menus don't work.

I went to Classic WU's Tropical Page, where if you scroll down to 'Helpful Online Resources' there are a handful of links under 'Sea Surface Temperature Data'. Unfortunately, half of these links don't work. Maybe one of the working links is what you're looking for?
Many of the links don't work now. I can't even get to another radar by clicking on the radar symbol now. Some of these problems have existed since the site changeover and some are new. I'm on amateur radio blogs run by one guy that have few problems than this place.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
517. Patrap
Comments: 130000

Not that it matters but just putting it out there since the blog is quiet.
Pretty amazing total. Makes my post numbers look like a newbie. :)
Quoting hydrus:
there were lines , wooden 7,s wooden lint checker candler and globed fur. this cannot becarbomidewhen diatoms fall
or when doves cry...
Quoting Patrap:
Wow..thanx

I wish it was a nickel a comment.

Been a good run.

We were social networking here way before the rest of the web caught on.

And some good offshoots have come about..

Thats the good part. Hopefully.

130,004 comments...Dats a lot of typin Pat..and alot of good info thank you muchly.
Quoting 527. sar2401:

The front finally came through here at 0647 according to the rain gauge. We never had enough thunder or lightning to wake up me or Radar Dog, and he gets excited if he thinks he hears thunder. All the heavy weather went south of me. After reviewing the NWS watches and warnings, it looks like Barbour County was one of the few in south central Alabama that was never under any kind of weather warning. The front moved like a Model A with seized up wheel bearings but LA Bon Bon is the precip winner, since I was whining about getting nothing and I actually got 0.33". Hooray! Not enough for a flash flood warning but better than nothing. Beell is the watch box winner, since he called the storms early on and just about nailed most of the action...although he should have moved it a little east. :-) It looks like the only tornadoes were up in Lamar and Winston Counties, right on the Mississippi border and the last counties in the BMX CWA north before Huntsville.

We were very lucky. I haven't heard of any serious injuries or deaths from the tornadoes in Mississippi or Alabama. We had a period when this site was down at about 4:00 pm where we had a huge increase in low level shear and almost every thunderstorm on the MS and AL line, the area of the apparent tornadoes, was spinning. The shear quit abruptly as the low moved more quickly NE and there were no more apparent tornadoes reported after that. The storms system brought mostly minor flooding but 2-4" of beneficial rain to most places in both states. I'm thankful for even my relatively small amount of rain and that this system didn't cause more destruction or loss of life. The system was a good example of the type of severe storms we get here in the winter, when it looks like no big deal to start and then things can escalate rapidly.


Morning, Sar - when I got up this morning and checked NWS, the first thing I saw was the tornado warning for Henry County, and it got me wondering if you were up and monitoring, or asleep and oblivious :)

Nice to see you got something from the system...even if it's a measly 0.33"...

Still a bit overcast here, but it's quite a bit brighter, so I'm hoping for some blue skies today. Was going to do some yard work, but it's awfully wet with some standing water still. Change of plans may be in order.
Quoting LAbonbon:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
752 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

ALC067-041315-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150104T1315Z/
HENRY AL-
652 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CST FOR HENRY
COUNTY...

AT 649 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HEADLAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CAPPS...ABBEVILLE...MILLER AND WILLIS CROSSROADS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.
This is one county south of me by covered by Tallahassee. I always have to leave Birmingham, Tallahassee, and Atlanta weather warnings up since something could be headed my way and only be picked up by one of the weather offices. It looks like this one wasn't a tornado but it was headed in my direction and BMX didn't issue any kind of warning. I've found it's easy to make a non-weather geek female very ill with me when there are warnings from three offices going off on the weather radio. :-)
Quoting 474. Drakoen:

I hear the Euro weeklies are warm in the east for late January. At the rate we're going, it would no be surprising if we do not get a major storm in January.
Now it'll be "wait until February" lol.Remember with the winter of 2011-2012 everyone kept waiting?.
I am not ready for Thursday.

Quoting LAbonbon:


Morning, Sar - when I got up this morning and checked NWS, the first thing I saw was the tornado warning for Henry County, and it got me wondering if you were up and monitoring, or asleep and oblivious :)

Nice to see you got something from the system...even if it's a measly 0.33"...

Still a bit overcast here, but it's quite a bit brighter, so I'm hoping for some blue skies today. Was going to do some yard work, but it's awfully wet with some standing water still. Change of plans may be in order.
Good morning Bonnie. I probably would have been up but I haven't programmed the weather radio in the bedroom for Tallahassee yet. The phone alarm went off. I have the most annoying sound ever on that and it won't wake me if I'm sleeping with my deaf ear up. As it turned out, nothing happened anyway, and Radar Dog wasn't impressed either, since he was sound asleep. I got up about 8:00 and the front had gone through by then. I don't know how everything missed me but my high wind gust was only 13 mph.

Wait!!! I was checking the actual database from my station and it seems that I had one cloudburst that lasted literally seven minutes. My real total was 1.24"! I thought there looked like too many puddles for 0.33". Now I'm all excited. This is the first time my monthly rain total has been above average since Gro was a child. :-)
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

that blob going into nevada is pretty impressive
GFS is bringing some chilly air down across the Gulf Coast on Thursday morning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am not ready for Thursday.

Not quite as bad here with a low of 16 and a high of 34. They keep lowering the temperature forecast so I'm assuming this is going to be a couple of days of leaving the water drip so my pipes don't blow up. One of the reasons I moved to SE AL was it was supposed to be warm...or at least not down into the teens and staying below freezing during the day. There must be people at the Chamber of Commerce having a good chuckle over snagging another Yankee fool. :-)
I'm off for the day, hopefully doing something productive :o

You all have a wonderful day. Those of you in GA & the Southeast - stay safe! And to those of you in the 'icebox' with the inhumane temps and wind chill - stay safe AND warm!
A closer look at the S.E. on Thursday morning.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

that blob going into nevada is pretty impressive
It may be but your link only shows an error.
Quoting LAbonbon:
I'm off for the day, hopefully doing something productive :o

You all have a wonderful day. Those of you in GA & the Southeast - stay safe! And to those of you in the 'icebox' with the inhumane temps and wind chill - stay safe AND warm!
CU later. Have fun sloshing around in the yard.
Sticky and yucky for January. Overnight low of 68 If it wasn't forecast to get into the 40s tonight I would turn on the AC. Yesterday was 61/79. My forecast is 80 today. I had some sun around 10:30 but will need more to get to 80. If the clouds hold fast and keep the temp down I doubt I will get severe weather locally.
Quoting 525. PensacolaDoug:

How long do we have to put up with the bold type?


Till there's a new entry without a script error.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
A closer look at the S.E. on Thursday morning.
Supposed to be 11 degrees in Birmingham. Thank goodness it'll be dry so we don't have to look at endless hours of videotape of cars being abandoned all over the place again. :-)
as always you are correct sar. i don't know why i thought i did it right. 
my 1755 comments couldn't hold a candle to you pat :)
550. beell
Quoting 537. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I am not ready for Thursday.




Oh, the horror!


For Houston:





Our temps may end up on the lower side of the guidance. CAA over the Central and Southern Plains snowpack should be a bit more pronounced than points farther east.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Sticky and yucky for January. Overnight low of 68 If it wasn't forecast to get into the 40s tonight I would turn on the AC. Yesterday was 61/79. My forecast is 80 today. I had some sun around 10:30 but will need more to get to 80. If the clouds hold fast I doubt I will get severe weather locally.
My overnight low is my current temperature, 64. It's still cloudy and humid but it's down to the low 50's and high 40's in northern Alabama so the cold air is slowly making its way south. Don't underestimate that squall line though, especially if you get any sun. It still has a lot of energy.
We're expecting highs in the upper 60s on Thursday. That should feel refreshing.

Heat index near or above 90 degrees is just a little too warm for January.

But we still need some rain here. We're now up to 37 days with only .05" of precipitation.
The last decent rain was on Nov. 26th.

553. vis0
gone Fishing4 Wx Activity
click image upload

just going fishing for some WxActivity...
...meanwhile...its seems like someone is making sure their H's are crossed and i's are open.
(and "i" should talk)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
We're expecting highs in the upper 60s on Thursday. That should feel refreshing.

Heat index near or above 90 degrees is just a little too warm for January.

But still need some rain here. We're now up to 37 days with only .05" of precipitation.
The last real rain was on Nov. 26th.

To each his own, I suppose; this makes me very happy:

Quoting 535. washingtonian115:
Now it'll be "wait until February" lol.Remember with the winter of 2011-2012 everyone kept waiting?.


Running out of time for sure escpecially here in FL. 84 already here in longwood and will likely max out around 86 to 88. I remember the posters very clearly who said the NWS only has 80 to 82 and there's no way that will happen and again they get proven wrong. I have lived here all my life and a SSW or SW flow anytime of year is a hot wind for Eastern FL. Records will likely fall today for many cities along the east coast of FL.

Quoting WaterWitch11:
as always you are correct sar. i don't know why i thought i did it right.


It has nothing to do with me being right. Computers only want things done in one way. Is this the picture you wanted to post? If so, you need to copy the URL and then use the "image" box to post the link. The "link" option won't show a picture and takes you to a directory that can't be shown as an image without more code. I'll be happy to help you when I can, but a bad link isn't some kind of reflection on you as a person.


if you guys dont like the bold on the new site then swich too the classic


Link


i now olny uesd the classic site and i will keep useing it in tell they take it off line


very cold in the northeast to
Quoting Neapolitan:
To each his own, I suppose; this makes me very happy:



I'll take warm over cold any day. Anything below 50 at night is too cold. Anything below 60s in the day is too cold.

My perfect day would be a highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, lows in the 60s at night with relatively low humidity.
With those temps you can do whatever you want outdoors and wear shorts and a T shirt while doing it.
I love to surf also. I've learned to really hate cold water living in southern Florida. So that's another benefit of the warm weather.
Quoting beell:


Oh, the horror!


For Houston:





Our temps may end up on the lower side of the guidance. CAA over the Central and Southern Plains snowpack should be a bit more pronounced than points farther east.
Where do you find some of those pictures? Now I want one of those things. :-)

The cold air advection from this cold spell is what bothers me and my pipes. My house was built in 1895 and the water pipes are strung along a "crawlspace" that goes for about two feet to six feet. I've insulated the pipes but that crawl space is too large to heat so I'm stuck leaving the water drip and hoping it's doing so at a high enough rate to prevent freezing. During our Arctic outbreak last year I stuck a remote reading thermometer down there and it got down to 9 degrees so it's like they're in the open air. It's not so bad if I'm home and can keep an eye on them but I worry about this kind of cold spell if I'm off traveling. Just one of the joys of owning an old house.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


very cold in the northeast to


See comments #543 and #540.
Coldest air for the Gulf Coast this season if it materializes.
563. vis0

Quoting 477. sar2401:

Nah, I won't buy that. You know that as much about meteorology as I do and we don't live that far apart. You're just a big chicken. :-)

I was out trying to get my fiance's beater pickup to start and sweating like a hog. It's still 68 and so humid it looks like it's rained. The sky has the look of it should be lightning but, according to Weather Bug, the nearest lightning to me is 181 miles, out in the Gulf. If you notice, that front is starting to get the Swiss cheese look on the southern end, and I think it will get more Swiss-y as the hours pass. I hope I really do get half an inch to prove my lack of patience overcomes my alleged meteorology skills, but I still think we end up with almost (a tenth or less) nothing. I hate these kinds of systems. They get you all jacked up with the "can't lose" look and then they do so anyway.
so much talk of food mmmm, Monterey  JACK, swiss, BAY!-con, chicken, toasted bugs
Quoting 555. StormTrackerScott:



Running out of time for sure escpecially here in FL. 84 already here in longwood and will likely max out around 86 to 88. I remember the posters very clearly who said the NWS only has 80 to 82 and there's no way that will happen and again they get proven wrong. I have lived here all my life and a SSW or SW flow anytime of year is a hot wind for Eastern FL. Records will likely fall today for many cities along the east coast of FL.




I know. I remember last week when someone on this blog said Central Fl was getting 7inches of rain. Severe weather, tornadoes etc. I remember him telling us to be prepared for all of the warnings. Selective memory I guess. LOL....
Quoting 564. luvtogolf:


I know. I remember last week when someone on this blog said Central Fl was getting 7inches of rain. Severe weather, tornadoes etc. I remember him telling us to be prepared for all of the warnings. Selective memory I guess. LOL....


If you are referring to the FL Big Bend then yes I did and i was right. I said that days before it happend. First the models showed C FL then shifted north so your problem is? No golfing today eh? Maybe its too windy for you.
Wow, reading back, glad to see I wasn't alone with issues here - using Classic so am not seeing the "all-bold" type problems from Steve's post others do, but... yesterday aftn, was writing (what became a lengthy) reply to Sar and Hydrus, selecting files to upload, etc, and everything crashed... browser froze / force-quit, had to quit other all apps, shut down / restart... What a dial-up flashback(!) - New computer, same result on this buggy, auto-updating, memory/bandwidth-hogging site. Still today, page won't finish loading in Classic. Oh well…

Good thing there wasn't a severe wx threat in progress when it all crashed… oh, wait...
:(
Well after I woke up this morning I looked at the replay of the storms that previously passed through during the night I found something interesting, A thunderstorms cell had moved through at 12:30AM CT at the time it was fairly small but it was definitly rotating, about an hour after that it produced a possible Tornado in Crenshaw county, Alabama between Georgiana Highway and about 1.5 miles east of Luverne, its not a confirmed tornado yet but several chicken houses were destroyed, some homes were damaged and numerous trees down, thankfully no injuries or deaths came from the ordeal.
Quoting 555. StormTrackerScott:



Running out of time for sure escpecially here in FL. 84 already here in longwood and will likely max out around 86 to 88. I remember the posters very clearly who said the NWS only has 80 to 82 and there's no way that will happen and again they get proven wrong. I have lived here all my life and a SSW or SW flow anytime of year is a hot wind for Eastern FL. Records will likely fall today for many cities along the east coast of FL.


It's going to get cold.After all it is winter right?.But unlike last year this year dose not have reinforcing cold straight from the arctic coming down to the great lakes and spilling into the eastern 2/3rd's of the country .Not only that but the storm track has either been for a inland runner or for a storm to be so suppressed its forced out to sea and does nothing.What mysterious pattern change are these people taking about?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Records will likely fall today for many cities along the east coast of FL.



Ok. Please make sure to post here in a few hours all the cities along the east coast of FL that broke records. I will be checking tonight and i will have the crow ready for you as im fully stocked.
Despite full sunshine, many places might not get out of the 40's on Thursday!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


If you are referring to the FL Big Bend then yes I did and i was right. I said that days before it happend.


Wait im confused, you were 'right'? Maybe you meant the model you posted at that place and time may have verified. The model was right. You just posted it, thats all.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


If you are referring to the FL Big Bend then yes I did and i was right. I said that days before it happend. First the models showed C FL then shifted north so your problem is? No golfing today eh? Maybe its too windy for you.


Lol. You were all over it for Central Fl and it didnt happen here. North Fl got it and you were wrong. Plain and simple.
No love for my backyard from the GFS. It puts a perfect dry hole right over Fort Myers.

Thank you Mr. Gregory.
575. vis0

Quoting 538. sar2401:

Good morning Bonnie. I probably would have been up but I haven't programmed the weather radio in the bedroom for Tallahassee yet. The phone alarm went off. I have the most annoying sound every on that and it won't wake me if I'm sleeping with my deaf ear up. As it turned out, nothing happened anyway, and Radar Dog wasn't impressed either, since he was sound asleep. I got up about 8:00 and the front had gone trough by then. I don't know how everything missed me but my high wind gust was only 13 mph.

Wait!!! I was checking the actual database from my station and it seems that I had one cloudburst that lasted literally seven minutes. My real total was 1.24"! I thought there looked like too many puddles for 0.33". Now I'm all excited. This is the first time my monthly rain total has been above average since Gro was a child. :-)

priceless org by vis0 FRAMED i tell you i was fr
windows 7 print screen




another word for priceless, "Worthless" but no doves crying ...hear..careful activity not over in several areas be it water, or winds.
I've been trying to find a city in the U.S. that was drier than Fort Myers last month. So far I haven't found one.
We had .05" for the month.
Models continue to trend a bit south with a clipper type system coming through the plains region and into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region to produce some light to moderate snowfall accumulations. Good news with this system is that cold air will already be in place.

Look back at my post about 0645 EST. I tried to wake you up Sar!

Quoting 538. sar2401:

Good morning Bonnie. I probably would have been up but I haven't programmed the weather radio in the bedroom for Tallahassee yet. The phone alarm went off. I have the most annoying sound ever on that and it won't wake me if I'm sleeping with my deaf ear up. As it turned out, nothing happened anyway, and Radar Dog wasn't impressed either, since he was sound asleep. I got up about 8:00 and the front had gone through by then. I don't know how everything missed me but my high wind gust was only 13 mph.

Wait!!! I was checking the actual database from my station and it seems that I had one cloudburst that lasted literally seven minutes. My real total was 1.24"! I thought there looked like too many puddles for 0.33". Now I'm all excited. This is the first time my monthly rain total has been above average since Gro was a child. :-)
Quoting 577. Drakoen:

Models continue to trend a bit south with a clipper type system coming through the plains region and into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region to produce some light to moderate snowfall accumulations. Good news with this system is that cold air will already be in place.


Now hopefully the trend continues.Don't expect a lot though because it will be very dry.
Quoting 579. washingtonian115:

Now hopefully the trend continues.Don't expect a lot though because it will be very dry.


ECMWF surface to mid level RH values looked good and with an auto convective lapse rate due to 850mb CAA, I think we're in good shape.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Look back at my post about 0645 EST. I tried to wake you up Sar!

LOL! Good job, but I was in the arms of Morpheus. I had the drapes open in the bedroom thinking the light show would wake me up but apparently the line went through with very little lightning or thunder. Any time Radar Dog remains conked out, it's not much of a thunderstorm. :-) We did get some decent rain once the line finally poked its way though. I thought we'd start getting some colder, drier air once the line went though but it's still overcast, the temperature has gone up a two degrees to 66, and the wind is almost calm. I guess the colder air will take its time getting here.
RGEM being very generous, probably too generous.

Quoting vis0:


priceless org by vis0 FRAMED i tell you i was fr
windows 7 print screen




another word for priceless, "Worthless" but no doves crying ...hear..careful activity not over in several areas be it water, or winds.
Nice frame, vis. I think the line is going to hold together better than originally forecast and be a decent rainmaker for most of Florida. Poor old Cat5 may even get a little from it. This is turning out to be quite a storm.
Quoting 582. Drakoen:

RGEM being very generous, probably too generous.




If that can get a little farther to the south and east in Greenville, I will be a happy camper!!

Eric
Thank you Mr. Gregory./
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I've been trying to find a city in the U.S. that was drier than Fort Myers last month. So far I haven't found one.
We had .05" for the month.
I think you've got the record. Tonopah or Mercury Nevada for official stations are usually low in December, have you beat, with 0.31" for Tonopah and a whopping 0.59" for Mercury. Even Moab, Utah, usually another sure winner, got 0.26". I hope that our weather historian takes a look at this one. I can't imagine that any Florida city has ever set the record for the least monthly rainfall in the country before this.
Quoting 584. EricfromGreenvilleSC:



If that can get a little farther to the south and east in Greenville, I will be a happy camper!!

Eric
]

Lake Effect in the NY state.
Quoting 570. weatherbro:

Despite full sunshine, many places might not get out of the 40's on Thursday!
Despite full cloud cover it is 58F(Northern VA). 16F above average.
I'am looking forward to the name Joaquin this year for hurricane season.I wonder if any storms will be retired from the 2014 hurricane season?.I'd give Gonzalo a chance.Remember how Ingrid got retired and it shocked a few people?.

*Shrugs*
Quoting 590. Tornado6042008X:


*Shrugs*

At least it's not another inland runner.Hopefully it will not be suppressed either.Remember the fail storms of December 21st and 30th?.
Quoting WeatherBAC:
Well after I woke up this morning I looked at the replay of the storms that previously passed through during the night I found something interesting, A thunderstorms cell had moved through at 12:30AM CT at the time it was fairly small but it was definitly rotating, about an hour after that it produced a possible Tornado in Crenshaw county, Alabama between Georgiana Highway and about 1.5 miles east of Luverne, its not a confirmed tornado yet but several chicken houses were destroyed, some homes were damaged and numerous trees down, thankfully no injuries or deaths came from the ordeal.
Nothing reported from Crenshaw County near that time, but there was a tornado warning for Crenshaw that started from a line of strong thunderstorms and was warned for Crenshaw first warned at 0214 and lifted at 0345, so it was on the ground a long time. Law enforcement reported chicken houses destroyed and homes damaged on Cameron Chapel Rd at 0318 and homes damaged and trees down 3 miles east of Luverne at 0332. It looks like this damage is all from the probable tornado on the ground from about 0245 to 0345. If it was from a tornado at 1230, I'd expect an earlier damage report from law enforcement. The storm you saw may very well have had a funnel that never descended or did no damage. We had rotating storms all over the state, from about 1600 hours until about 0445 hours. Lots of action from a system which didn't look like much to start with.
TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking · 5 min Há 5 minutos
#BREAKING: Tornado warning for Savannah, GA until 3:45pm. Possible tornado on west side of city heading twd downtown!
Record highs are beginning to fall across E C FL right now.
Quoting 591. washingtonian115:

At least it's not another inland runner.Hopefully it will not be suppressed either.Remember the fail storms of December 21st and 30th?.
Warm rain happened.

*Turns sarcasm flag on for the following*


I love the weather we have been having and I know that you love it too. Air cold enough for snow with sunny skies followed by rainy conditions with a temperature of 32.1F followed by more showers and cloud cover with warm temps, like right now, followed by air cold enough for snow with sunny skies.

Repeat above statement in an endless loop :)

*Turns sarcasm flag off*


(>:,^())--

Come on alberta clipper just a little wee bit farther south. LOL
Quoting Luisport:
TWC Breaking @TWCBreaking · 5 min Há 5 minutos
#BREAKING: Tornado warning for Savannah, GA until 3:45pm. Possible tornado on west side of city heading twd downtown!


TWC was just showing live video from Savannah. Couldn't see anything but a cloud line moving into the area.

Real nice kink in the line with a "donut-hole" in the middle.
Line just getting here now. Severe stuff looks south of me with a tornado warning just issued GA/SC border down by Savannah.

Quoting 581. sar2401:

LOL! Good job, but I was in the arms of Morpheus. I had the drapes open in the bedroom thinking the light show would wake me up but apparently the line went through with very little lightning or thunder. Any time Radar Dog remains conked out, it's not much of a thunderstorm. :-) We did get some decent rain once the line finally poked its way though. I thought we'd start getting some colder, drier air once the line went though but it's still overcast, the temperature has gone up a two degrees to 66, and the wind is almost calm. I guess the colder air will take its time getting here.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Record highs are beginning to fall across E C FL right now.


Post the links to the NWS pages when they are available that show the records.
Yeah, that is just crazy. You have been in a bubble since summer.


Quoting 573. Sfloridacat5:

No love for my backyard from the GFS. It puts a perfect dry hole right over Fort Myers.


Palmdale, Immokalee, and Sebring Florida are all 87 degrees at the moment.
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Wow, reading back, glad to see I wasn't alone with issues here - using Classic so am not seeing the "all-bold" type problems from Steve's post others do, but... yesterday aftn, was writing (what became a lengthy) reply to Sar and Hydrus, selecting files to upload, etc, and everything crashed... browser froze / force-quit, had to quit other all apps, shut down / restart... What a dial-up flashback(!) - New computer, same result on this buggy, auto-updating, memory/bandwidth-hogging site. Still today, page won't finish loading in Classic. Oh well%u2026

Good thing there wasn't a severe wx threat in progress when it all crashed%u2026 oh, wait...
:(
LOL, Doc. Yeah, it was a great time for a site crash. I have a RAM monitor that sits in my system tray. I have to watch it like a hawk with this site. I've got 4 gigs of RAM so it's not like my clunker is that bad but,as soon as the site goes over 70% of free RAM used, I have to close the page, which immediately gets me back 15% of my RAM. Sometimes, I have to close down Chrome, which lets me start again at 43% RAM used and then I'll be able to log in and stay on the page for maybe 20 minutes before my RAM gets sucked up again. If I'm not careful and don't keep an eye on the free RAM, it will eventually get to 80% and completely lock up the computer, leading to a cold restart. I'm not an expert with computers but I'm also not an idiot, and this is the only site that gives me these kinds of problems...and I'm on Classic. I tried the new site a few times and it took all my RAM in 15 minutes. As you say, at least we don't see everything in all bold because the programmers of Classic knew enough to close open tags when a post became live, and not allow the problem to propagate from post to post by allowing bad HTML code to be quoted. Yessiree, Classic was a real piece of junk that had to be fixed. I hope WU is happy with the end product.

EDIT: BTW, when you're logged on, hit CTRL-F5. That will clear you cache and get rid of whatever's hanging you up when you try to load.
Quoting 598. WxGuy2014:


Post the links to the NWS pages when they are available that show the records.


Really you know where they are but I sure will and your crow is ready just let me know how you like it.

86 here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015



RECORD HIGHS TODAY

DAB 84/1973
MCO 86/1938
MLB 85/1972 -TIED 85-
VRB 84/1997 -BROKEN 86-
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Palmdale, Immokalee, and Sebring Florida are all 87 degrees at the moment.
Cold air finally headed my way. Down from 66 to 60 in the last 45 minutes and the NW wind has started pick up. I still think you might get some rain from the line in the Gulf as it finally swings through, and some nice, cooler air will follow.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Line just getting here now. Severe stuff looks south of me with a tornado warning just issued GA/SC border down by Savannah.

Keep an eye on that thing. It seems to be carrying its own explosives along with it.
TWC says there is damage in the Savannah area. They will break into programming to show the damage video/images when they get them.
Anything on hilton head island? There was a tornado warning there.
Yeah, I putting some miles in on the bicycle since it is 75F here. Sky looked nasty to the SW. Got back to the house about a half hour before the rain started. Nice tailwind for the last part of the ride.

Quoting 604. sar2401:

Keep an eye on that thing. It seems to be carrying its own explosives along with it.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Really you know where they are but I sure will and your crow is ready just let me know how you like it.

86 here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015



RECORD HIGHS TODAY

DAB 84/1973
MCO 86/1938
MLB 85/1972 -TIED 85-
VRB 84/1997 -BROKEN 86-


Did we get to the upper 80's with heat indices in the mid-90's?
Almost 90 degrees in Immokalee. It has to be the warmest city in the country today.

Quoting weatherbro:
Despite full sunshine, many places might not get out of the 40's on Thursday!


Many places in Central Florida that is.
Yaaaaay!.The bold stuff is gone!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Record highs are beginning to fall across E C FL right now.


NWS was dead on forecasting record highs of 85/86.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
TWC says there is damage in the Savannah area. They will break into programming to show the damage video/images when they get them.
Kind of weird. There's no tornado warning now and the NWS has nothing about any damage.

EDIT; Here's you damage report
Time: 2015-01-04T20:12:00Z UTC
Event: TSTM WND DMG
Source: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Remark: HAM RADIO OPERATOR RELAYED A REPORT FROM THE BRUNSWICK PORT THAT THE SAVANNAH PORT POLICE ARE REPORTING SEVERAL LARGE CONTAINERS BLOWN OVER. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR
Quoting sar2401:
Kind of weird. There's no tornado warning now and the NWS has nothing about any damage.


What's left of the circulation has moved offshore I believe.
We'll have to wait about the damage.
TWC said some homes were damaged.
Savannah has apparently escaped danger now...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

GAC029-031-043-051-103-109-165-179-183-191-251-26 7-SCC005-049-
042200-
/O.CAN.KCHS.TO.A.0003.000000T0000Z-150104T2300Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 3 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN GEORGIA THIS CANCELS 12 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER
CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS
JENKINS LIBERTY LONG
MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL

IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS CANCELS 2 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA

ALLENDALE HAMPTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALLENDALE...CLAXTON...DARIEN...
FORT MCALLISTER...HALFMOON LANDING...HAMPTON...HINESVILLE...
LUDOWICI...METTER...MILLEN...PEMBROKE...REIDSVILL E...SAVANNAH...
SPRINGFIELD...STATESBORO...SYLVANIA...TOWNSEND AND TYBEE ISLAND
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


What's left of the circulation has moved offshore I believe.
We'll have to wait about the damage.
TWC said some homes were damaged.
Here'e your other official damage report. I suspect this includes the damaged homes -

Time: 2015-01-04T19:59:00Z UTC
Event: TSTM WND DMG
Source: COUNTY OFFICIAL
Remark: CHATHAM COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS 2 TREES DOWN AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON ELK ROAD IN THE SILK HOPE AREA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
Here's an image I found from Bacon County Georgia. Link






BACON COUNTY, Ga. - The National Weather Service Emergency Management has issued an alert of a possible tornado this afternoon in Bacon County. According to NWS, the possible tornado hit 3 miles east of Alma near Highway 32 east. At least two people are injured. A mobile home is destroyed and other homes are damaged. Trees are also down. Stay with WSAV for weather coverage.
Quoting 616. sar2401:

Here'e your other official damage report. I suspect this includes the damaged homes -

Time: 2015-01-04T19:59:00Z UTC
Event: TSTM WND DMG
Source: COUNTY OFFICIAL
Remark: CHATHAM COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS 2 TREES DOWN AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON ELK ROAD IN THE SILK HOPE AREA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


From SPC:

2012 UNK 2 W HUTCHINSON ISLAND CHATHAM GA 3209 8111 HAM RADIO OPERATOR RELAYED A REPORT FROM THE BRUNSWICK PORT THAT THE SAVANNAH PORT POLICE ARE REPORTING SEVERAL LARGE CONTAINERS BLOWN OVER. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR (CHS)

Does that refer to conex boxes?

Quoting 594. StormTrackerScott:

Record highs are beginning to fall across E C FL right now.
i wish i was there!
Another image from just east of Alma Georgia. Looks like a mobile home or some type of structure was destroyed.
Updated story - Alma tornado was reported earlier today according to the story.
Link

ALMA, GA (WTOC) - Two people are being treated for serious injuries after a tornado touched down around 1 p.m. on Sunday in the Rockingham community of Bacon County.

Bacon County Fire and EMS, Bacon County Volunteer Fire Department, and the Bacon County Sheriff's Office responded to the scene where two structures had been damaged on Highway 34, one was small store and the other was a mobile home.

Two people were entrapped in the double wide mobile home, one woman and one man were extricated after an hour of work to get them both out.

Both the woman and the man were transported to Bacon County Hospital were they are being treated for serious injuries, one is being taken to a trauma center as soon as they are determined to be in stable condition.

There are reports of downed trees in the area of Rockingham. There are also reports the tornado traveled in a North East direction with the damage starting in the Rockingham community.
Moderate to heavy rain with no thunder or lightning. Moderate gust front reaching 35-40 mph has passed, wind near calm.
Quoting LAbonbon:


From SPC:

2012 UNK 2 W HUTCHINSON ISLAND CHATHAM GA 3209 8111 HAM RADIO OPERATOR RELAYED A REPORT FROM THE BRUNSWICK PORT THAT THE SAVANNAH PORT POLICE ARE REPORTING SEVERAL LARGE CONTAINERS BLOWN OVER. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR (CHS)

Does that refer to conex boxes?



That makes no sense---Brunswick and Savannah ports are 80 miles apart. There's been no severe weather here. Plus Brunswick is in the Jacksonville CWA. Not Charleston's
re: 601. sar2401 2:42 PM CST on January 04, 2015
Quoting sar2401:
LOL, Doc. Yeah, it was a great time for a site crash. I have a RAM monitor that sits in my system tray. I have to watch it like a hawk with this site. I've got 4 gigs of RAM so it's not like my clunker is that bad but,as soon as the site goes over 70% of free RAM used, I have to close the page, which immediately gets me back 15% of my RAM. Sometimes, I have to close down Chrome, which lets me start again at 43% RAM used and then I'll be able to log in and stay on the page for maybe 20 minutes before my RAM gets sucked up again. If I'm not careful and don't keep an eye on the free RAM, it will eventually get to 80% and completely lock up the computer, leading to a cold restart. I'm not an expert with computers but I'm also not an idiot, and this is the only site that gives me these kinds of problems...and I'm on Classic. I tried the new site a few times and it took all my RAM in 15 minutes. As you say, at least we don't see everything in all bold because the programmers of Classic knew enough to close open tags when a post became live, and not allow the problem to propagate from post to post by allowing bad HTML code to be quoted. Yessiree, Classic was a real piece of junk that had to be fixed. I hope WU is happy with the end product.

EDIT: BTW, when you're logged on, hit CTRL-F5. That will clear you cache and get rid of whatever's hanging you up when you try to load.


1000 plusses on that, Sar.
My experience and sentiments match yours. Freeze-crash issues with this site are some of worst I deal with, perhaps worse than most news or store sites and plethora of ads / cookies they load. I'm sure a lot of the memory-hogging is from all the graphics, esp animations we post. In past have done same when bogs down, closed page / dump cache, restart browser, etc - one reason I can rarely blog live here back/forth! Sheesh, my old G4 Mac had a mere 867 Mhz RAM, this one w 4 gigs, same frustrations.

Of course I had too many other pages open yesterday running in background, notably the crash happened when forgot had radar on another page, pulled it up and it tried in vain to update the previous 1.5 hrs - got the infamous Mac spinning beach ball of death, lol… Although the time frame matched overall site/blog crash everyone experienced. Really was scary when clicked the comp from sleep again last night to open a blank white screen, Yikes… but desktop / Finder returned shortly. Heck I was too nerve-racked to try checking in here!

Oh, on the positive side, glad you got a lil rain… 1.05" storm total here, glad wasn't more. Actually I dread excessive Winter rain with our SE LA soils - just won't dry out in the cold season, was still quite wet after the Dec 23 event.
Another image from the Alma, Georgia area.

Jan 11th-12th system.
Quoting 624. DonnieBwkGA:



That makes no sense---Brunswick and Savannah ports are 80 miles apart. There's been no severe weather here. Plus Brunswick is in the Jacksonville CWA.


LOL - I didn't even catch the game of 'operator' that was in that report. I was curious about the containers...
Tuesday's Clipper
Quoting 624. DonnieBwkGA:



That makes no sense---Brunswick and Savannah ports are 80 miles apart. There's been no severe weather here. Plus Brunswick is in the Jacksonville CWA. Not Charleston's


This is how the SPC comment is now:

"HAM RADIO REPORTS VIA PORT OF SAVANNAH POLICE THAT SIX CONTAINERS BLOWN OVER AND A ROOF DAMAGED AT THE OCEAN TERMINAL. (CHS)"
Climate175 it looks like the models have come very far south with the clipper.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
454 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
WAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
NORTHEASTERN SAMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EST

* AT 454 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
10 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT OLIVE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDSBORO...WALNUT CREEK...PIKEVILLE...EUREKA...BROGDEN...
MAR-MAC...GRANTHAM AND ELROY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL AUTHORITY WHO WILL RELAY YOUR
REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE PATH OF DANGEROUS
WEATHER.
Quoting 631. washingtonian115:

Climate175 it looks like the models have come very far south with the clipper.
Yep it's only 54 hrs out.
I haven't checked surrounding CWAs yet, but the tornado count from yesterday within NWS Jackson's jurisdiction stands at 4--1 EF0, 2 EF1s, and an EF2.
Tornado Watch
Statement as of 5:06 PM EST on January 04, 2015

The National Weather Service has cancelled Tornado Watch 3 for the following areas

In Florida this cancels 4 counties

In northeast Florida

Baker Columbia Gilchrist Nassau

In Georgia this cancels 3 counties

In southeast Georgia

Camden Charlton Glynn

This includes the cities of...Brunswick...Fernandina Beach... Folkston...Lake City...Macclenny...St Marys and Trenton.
not a drop here at Jax Beach, Ponte Vedra
Tonight's 00z runs should paint a clearer picture for this clipper, as it will get sampled by the RAOB network in western Canada.

Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Fresh frigid Arctic air arriving tonight with the coldest weather so far this season expected for the post holiday return to school and work.

A frigid Arctic airmass will arrive tonight plunging Southern Ontario into a deep freeze for the upcoming work week.

Extreme cold warnings will likely be required at times during the week due to the combination of cold temperatures and brisk winds.

Temperatures will plunge to well below average values for early January. Minimum temperatures of minus 20 or below on the coldest days are likely, except for locales right along the shorelines of the Great Lakes and across Southwestern Ontario where temperatures may bottom out in the minus 15 to minus 20 range. Over Eastern Ontario and Algonquin a few minus 30 degree readings are quite possible on Thursday morning.

Significant snow squalls will affect areas to the southeast of the Great Lakes at times. Snow squall watches and warnings are in effect for these regions. Meanwhile, remaining regions will see varying amounts of sun and cloud, with scattered flurries and biting cold winds expected.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
ATOM feed ATOM
From the Miami NWS Disco...Back to average later this week for West Palm area...

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER (BUT NOT UNSEASONABLY COLD) AIR. AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PLENTY COLD, BUT GLOBAL MODELS AGREE IN
SHOWING THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND THE FRONT TO SLIDE
MORE EAST THAN SOUTH, GIVING SOUTH FLORIDA MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW
THAN A STRAIGHT SHOT OF COLD AIR. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
(INCLUDING ENSEMBLES) SHOW LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR
60 EAST COAST, NOT TOO FAR FROM EARLY JANUARY NORMALS). THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS FRONT ALSO MEANS THAT INSTEAD OF THE
TYPICAL CLEARING BEHIND STRONG FRONTS, WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
EASTERN METRO AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MODELS SHOW
PLENTY OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, SO IT
LOOKS LIKE A RATHER GLOOMY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Fresh frigid Arctic air arriving tonight with the coldest weather so far this season expected for the post holiday return to school and work.

A frigid Arctic airmass will arrive tonight plunging Southern Ontario into a deep freeze for the upcoming work week.

Extreme cold warnings will likely be required at times during the week due to the combination of cold temperatures and brisk winds.

Temperatures will plunge to well below average values for early January. Minimum temperatures of minus 20 or below on the coldest days are likely, except for locales right along the shorelines of the Great Lakes and across Southwestern Ontario where temperatures may bottom out in the minus 15 to minus 20 range. Over Eastern Ontario and Algonquin a few minus 30 degree readings are quite possible on Thursday morning.

Significant snow squalls will affect areas to the southeast of the Great Lakes at times. Snow squall watches and warnings are in effect for these regions. Meanwhile, remaining regions will see varying amounts of sun and cloud, with scattered flurries and biting cold winds expected.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
ATOM feed ATOM
-30 degrees..I have never felt cold like that other than wind chill.
Quoting 588. Tornado6042008X:

Despite full cloud cover it is 58F(Northern VA). 16F above average.


I don't think we have a prayer of getting INTO the 40s on thursday.. by a long shot!
Quoting 640. hydrus:

-30 degrees..I have never felt cold like that other than wind chill.
with a wind chill it will feel like -50 depending on the winds which they say will be quite brisk more so in any brief sudden squalls that may move in

we had a lot of rain last night and this morning by Thursday with the extreme cold be all kinds of popping and cracking sounds from the water freezing in the ground

going to be an interesting week ahead I guess
Quoting 641. georgevandenberghe:



I don't think we have a prayer of getting INTO the 40s on thursday.. by a long shot!
11º here just outside of Peoria, Il going down to 1ºF for the over night low ..

How far will the cold air sink ??
Quoting 644. whitewabit:

11º here just outside of Peoria, Il going down to 1ºF for the over night low ..

How far will the cold air sink ??
I just reached the freezing point here its 32.0 as per my pws on the roof going down to -10 c or 14f with winds increasing to 60 kmh at times near or just after midnight giving wind chills of -18c or 0 f
tonight will be the warmest night of the week ahead temps tomorrow should remain near -10 or rise slowly to the -7 to -9 range for a high that's it and with brisk winds its gonna feel a whole lot like winter
Quoting 645. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I just reached the freezing point here its 32.0 as per my pws on the roof going down to -10 c or 14f with winds increasing to 60 kmh at times near or just after midnight giving wind chills of -18c or 0 f


Wind chills tomorrow morning will be -15 to -25F ..
Quoting 646. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

tonight will be the warmest night of the week ahead temps tomorrow should remain near -10 or rise slowly to the -7 to -9 range for a high that's it and with brisk winds its gonna feel a whole lot like winter
I mean it is January.
Quoting 647. whitewabit:



Wind chills tomorrow morning will be -15 to -25F ..
ya we got it coming too by wed we be nearing -40's with chills
Quoting 648. washingtonian115:

I mean it is January.
yep but it has not felt like it more like late October we had more of a real winter in November than December we will see if January makes up for it I guess
and the flurries have just started now that must be the leading edge of the cold air coming in winds will be next to arrive
Interesting graphic for Georgia. The NWS points out that last year at this time it was very cold across the S.E.



Here's the information if you clicked the link from the original page.

Later this week, a frigid Arctic airmass will move into Georgia. Cold temperatures will filter in by midweek, with the coldest day being on Thursday. Low temperatures Thursday morning will range from the single digits in parts of north Georgia to the teens and low 20s elsewhere. Windy conditions will also cause very cold wind chills. Highs on Thursday will struggle to reach freezing for a large part of the area. As cold as it will be, last year at around the same time temperatures were even colder!


FL remains dry. Would be nice if this squall line would hold together and give us a little rain.
Last year on Jan. 7th, Atlanta had a high of 24 and a low of 5 degrees.

East Haven, Connecticut 50 °F Overcast 6:59 PM EST on January 04, 2015
could someone post a wind chill map for this week ?
Quoting 659. weatherlover94:

could someone post a wind chill map for this week ?


wind chill as per my PWS shows feel like temp of 16.5 to 19.5 in brisk winds air temp is 29.7
a 2.4 degree drop in last hr
Forecasted high here is 34F. Hopefully the sun will be out as forecasted.

Quoting 641. georgevandenberghe:



I don't think we have a prayer of getting INTO the 40s on thursday.. by a long shot!


Line is holding together well enough to give us at least some rain pretty soon. Local mets only had a 20% chance of rain for today, which seems way low given the current radar.
Quoting 650. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep but it has not felt like it more like late October we had more of a real winter in November than December we will see if January makes up for it I guess

Much of southeastern Canada, and most locations east of the U.S. Rockies, will see temperatures 20-30F below average by midweek and beyond. So, while it is winter, this will definitely be an anomalous arctic outbreak. My local NWS office is advertising the potential for near record cold, and I'd imagine similar statements are being typed all across the region.
forecasted winds chills at 7 am Monday morning eastern time

I can hear the wind picking up outside so the front is starting to come through.Also feels slightly cooler in the house.
Quoting 665. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Much of southeastern Canada, and most locations east of the U.S. Rockies, will see temperatures 20-30F below average by midweek and beyond. So, while it is winter, this will definitely be an anomalous arctic outbreak. My local NWS office is advertising the potential for near record cold, and I'd imagine similar statements are being typed all across the region.
they are advising that extreme cold alerts will be issued from time to time this week in our area and to stay tune to warnings and such
669. beell
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 PM EST SUN JAN 04 2015

VALID 00Z MON JAN 05 2015 - 00Z THU JAN 08 2015

DAYS 1 TO 3...

...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST...

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ADVANCING POLAR OUTBREAK WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ENHANCED BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. A MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A FAIRLY INTENSE ZONE OF ASCENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND CROSS MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO INTO SW PENNSYLVANIA.

THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS RESULTING IN MAXIMUM AMOUNTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS RANGED BETWEEN .25 AND .5 INCHES WHILE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS FROM A VARIETY OF SCHEMES SUGGESTED A MEAN RATIO OF ABOUT 20 TO 1. SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE PATH OF THIS NARROW SNOWBAND. PROBABILITY FORECASTS SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW BUT A LOW PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES.

ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES THE OHIO VALLEY...IT APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY A WEAKER FORECAST 850 MB LOW/BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...AS WELL AS MUCH FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING AN ACTUAL SURFACE LOW CENTER...WITH A WEAK REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO DROP OFF AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST LATER ON DAY 2. THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 3...WITH LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE IN BETWEEN.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A VERY MOIST SYSTEM CUTTING ACROSS THE TOP OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CUT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A PRONOUNCED ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE SHEARING UPPER TROUGHS AND ITS STRONG JET CROSS THE REGION ON DAYS 1/2...SOME VERY HEAVY QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CASCADES WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE CASCADES ON DAY 1 ALONE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ALSO FALL ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS IN OREGON AND ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGH PEAKS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IDAHO/NORTHWESTERN MONTANA. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE BITTERROOTS OF IDAHO/MONTANA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN WESTERN MONTANA. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE MOUNTAIN SYSTEM OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WITH AT LEAST A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS. AS WARMING ALOFT OCCURS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE TRAPPED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND NEAR THE BLUE MOUNTAINS RAISING THE LOW POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING .25 INCHES.

THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW DIMINISHES ON DAY 2/MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY DISSIPATING ON DAY 3/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS STILL FORECAST TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WITH SOME MODERATE TO HIGH ODDS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

...GREAT LAKES...

ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WITH POSSIBLE 3-LAKE CONNECTION BETWEEN LAKES SUPERIOR/HURON AND ONTARIO CONTRIBUTING POSSIBLY TO VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR ON ALL 3 DAYS AS VERY COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE A SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE. AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER PLUNGES ACROSS THE LAKES ON DAY 3/TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALL 3 LAKES WILL BE THE SOURCE OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ON DAYS 2 AND 3.

KOCIN
Long lived snow squalls are expected to develop. Under the snow squall bands, visibilities will be significantly reduced due to the heavy snow combined with blowing snow, and snow will quickly accumulate.

Much colder air will return to southern Ontario this evening. This northwest flow of cold air rushing over the relatively warm waters of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will generate snow squalls. Snow squalls are expected to develop this evening and persist into Monday evening. Local snowfall rates of 10 to 15 cm per 12 hours are possible under the strongest snow squalls.

Motorists should expect hazardous driving conditions from nil visibility in bursts of heavy snow and local blowing snow in the snow squalls.

Snow squalls cause weather conditions to vary considerably, changes from clear skies to heavy snow within just a few kilometres are common. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Road closures are possible. Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/

Snow Squall Watches are issued when conditions are favourable for the formation of bands of snow that could produce intense accumulating snow or near zero visibilities.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
forecast misery index 7am est dec 5/15



rainning in the northeast right now at 8pm
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Sun, Jan 4, 6:46 pm EST
... DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
* LOCATIONS... SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT EAST OF FAIRFIELD COUNTY.
* HAZARDS... DENSE FOG.
* VISIBILITIES... 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
* TIMING... THROUGH 10 PM.
* IMPACTS... VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. IF DRIVING... SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS... AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. IF DRIVING... SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS... AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.
&&
9º here in Central Illinois at 7 pm .. wind from the NW at 16 with the feel like temperature of -6º F ..
78° in West Palm Beach :)
Quoting 675. GeoffreyWPB:

78° in West Palm Beach :)
78 in my living room
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Last year on Jan. 7th, Atlanta had a high of 24 and a low of 5 degrees.

Yeah, it was a little nippy here as well, with a high of 27 and low of 12. My gas company thought January of 2014 was a pretty good month. I hope we're not about to repeat that experience or I'll have to get a second mortgage to pay the heat bill.
Quoting whitewabit:
11º here just outside of Peoria, Il going down to 1ºF for the over night low ..

How far will the cold air sink ??
I apparently have a pocket of warm air the NWS discovered. The low on the afternoon update for Wednesday was 16. Now it's up to 21. Maybe it'll be above freezing by Wednesday if they keep discovering more warm air. :-)
Quoting LAbonbon:


This is how the SPC comment is now:

"HAM RADIO REPORTS VIA PORT OF SAVANNAH POLICE THAT SIX CONTAINERS BLOWN OVER AND A ROOF DAMAGED AT THE OCEAN TERMINAL. (CHS)"
Never trust a ham radio report when you can pick up the phone and call the agency responsible where the supposed damage has occurred. We have some ham radio operators that tend to get a little excitable when they are reporting.

Nice Temps coming back to SoCal....
681. vis0

Quoting 601. sar2401:

LOL, Doc. Yeah, it was a great time for a site crash. I have a RAM monitor that sits in my system tray. I have to watch it like a hawk with this site. I've got 4 gigs of RAM so it's not like my clunker is that bad but,as soon as the site goes over 70% of free RAM used, I have to close the page, which immediately gets me back 15% of my RAM. Sometimes, I have to close down Chrome, which lets me start again at 43% RAM used and then I'll be able to log in and stay on the page for maybe 20 minutes before my RAM gets sucked up again. If I'm not careful and don't keep an eye on the free RAM, it will eventually get to 80% and completely lock up the computer, leading to a cold restart. I'm not an expert with computers but I'm also not an idiot, and this is the only site that gives me these kinds of problems...and I'm on Classic. I tried the new site a few times and it took all my RAM in 15 minutes. As you say, at least we don't see everything in all bold because the programmers of Classic knew enough to close open tags when a post became live, and not allow the problem to propagate from post to post by allowing bad HTML code to be quoted. Yessiree, Classic was a real piece of junk that had to be fixed. I hope WU is happy with the end product.

EDIT: BTW, when you're logged on, hit CTRL-F5. That will clear you cache and get rid of whatever's hanging you up when you try to load.
On firefox i use "Firemin 2...", though i DO NOT use its optimize feature as worried "Firemin" might interfere with other Fox apps. A setting of 540 to 572 in its OPTIONS area has led to an average of a lock up every 50 uses, before it was every 10 uses.
 
 i prefer the Iron flavor (SRWare Iron) of Chrome browsers and it has a few apps that also control the use of ram (mem) v. processing, i only use it for video on youtube. If anyone tries SRWare Iron and prefer not being "told" where to search or the use of "their" home pages, then BEFORE you go online open SRWare Iron and change (i remove it) its home pg, default search box & default privacy as to allowing apps to continue to listen & send info when one is off line. Goggle chrome does that and is harder to stop it from doing those things. 
 i see the caps err was corrected i was worried that Mr Gregory was in trouble and set it to cap as a signal, specially as Sunday went on and not other blog was created.
Quick question? How do you post a picture taken by you onto this blog?
Quoting 682. Tornado6042008X:

Quick question? How do you post a picture taken by you onto this blog?


Upload the picture from your computer to an image hosting site (such as Imgur) and then take the direct link and paste it into the image url box that pops up when you click on the image picture below the comment box.
...the Sun is the same in a relative way but yer older'




Earth closest to sun for 2015 on January 4

Tonight – that is, before dawn tomorrow from our North American longitudes – our planet Earth will reach perihelion, its closest point to the sun for the year. This annual event will take place on January 4, 2015 at 6:36 UTC (01:36 a.m. EST). The word perihelion is from Greek roots peri meaning near, and helios meaning sun.

Earth is closest to the sun every year in early January, when it’s winter for the Northern Hemisphere. We’re farthest away from the sun in early July, during our Northern Hemisphere summer.

Earth is about 5 million kilometers – or 3 million miles – closer to the sun in early January than it will be in early July. That’s not a huge change in distance. It’s not enough of a change to cause the seasons on Earth.

Despite what many may think, Earth’s distance from the sun isn’t what causes the seasons. On Earth, because our orbit is so close to being circular, it’s mostly the tilt of our world’s axis that creates winter and summer. In winter, your part of Earth is tilted away from the sun. In summer, your part of Earth is tilted toward the sun. The day of maximum tilt toward or away from the sun is the December or June solstice.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
78 in my living room
The advantage of those big boilers that you're not stuck paying for. I have two 20,000 BTU gas furnaces and you'd think I was trying to heat the whole town.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I haven't checked surrounding CWAs yet, but the tornado count from yesterday within NWS Jackson's jurisdiction stands at 4--1 EF0, 2 EF1s, and an EF2.
Nothing back yet from Birmingham but they were investigating three possible tornadoes and I think they have at least one more in the south part of the state. Mobile also has a probable in Crenshaw and Covington Counties and a possible in Baldwin County but I haven't seen a plan from them yet. Alabama produced more tornadoes than I thought they would.
Quoting 685. sar2401:

The advantage of those big boilers that you're not stuck paying for. I have two 20,000 BTU gas furnaces and you'd think I was trying to heat the whole town.

the heat bill if it stays cold entire month of jan below -10 will run bout 20K in gas for the month
the buildings average is set for 74f constant temp there is no turning it down at night right now its 74.7 inside 28.8 outside and it will stay at 74f no matter how cold it gets outside only thing that changes is the rads rise in temp right now water temp is 140f be 160f by morning and once we reach below -18c or colder it will be maxed out at 180 190

the boilers are all controlled by the boilermaster 2000 computer system
NAM 00z has me just south of the brutal cutoff in the Ohio River Valley...things look good into the mid-Atlantic and for you guys around DC and NOVA. Let's see what the rest of the 00z models usher in.

Quoting 689. Drakoen:

NAM 00z has me just south of the brutal cutoff in the Ohio River Valley...things look good into the mid-Atlantic and for you guys around DC and NOVA. Let's see what the rest of the 00z models usher in.


Woah 3 inches! As you just said, let's see what the other models say.

BTW where do you reside?
Quoting 690. Tornado6042008X:

Woah 3 inches! As you just said, let's see what the other models say.

BTW where do you reside?


Due to the Non-Disclosure Agreement with myself I cannot share that information. I live around the Ohio River Valley.
Quoting 684. Patrap:

...the Sun is the same in a relative way but yer older'




Earth closest to sun for 2015 on January 4

Tonight – that is, before dawn tomorrow from our North American longitudes – our planet Earth will reach perihelion, its closest point to the sun for the year. This annual event will take place on January 4, 2015 at 6:36 UTC (01:36 a.m. EST). The word perihelion is from Greek roots peri meaning near, and helios meaning sun.

Earth is closest to the sun every year in early January, when it’s winter for the Northern Hemisphere. We’re farthest away from the sun in early July, during our Northern Hemisphere summer.

Earth is about 5 million kilometers – or 3 million miles – closer to the sun in early January than it will be in early July. That’s not a huge change in distance. It’s not enough of a change to cause the seasons on Earth.

Despite what many may think, Earth’s distance from the sun isn’t what causes the seasons. On Earth, because our orbit is so close to being circular, it’s mostly the tilt of our world’s axis that creates winter and summer. In winter, your part of Earth is tilted away from the sun. In summer, your part of Earth is tilted toward the sun. The day of maximum tilt toward or away from the sun is the December or June solstice.




nice clear blue sky in the deep south

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the heat bill if it stays cold entire month of jan below -10 will run bout 20K in gas for the month
Which is a lot of money but not really that bad for your square footage and your climate. Even though my house is old, it was reinsulated and I have all double pane windows. I have one room closed off with the vents closed and tow zone heating, so I keep the bedrooms at 65 and the living areas at 68. I have about 2600 square feet to heat and my bill last January, when we had such cold weather (for us) was almost $400. I'm pretty certain my furnaces working full bore wouldn't keep the house above 50 with your temperatures. I'll bet you're paying less per square foot given the total square footage and the fact it's so dang cold all the time.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


nice clear blue sky in the deep south

Where's all the penguins? I wonder if they have the South Pole Police that gives you tickets for speeding on that road? I'll bet the boys get out and race those snowcats sometimes. They need something to do for fun.
NAM 00z radar (without precip classification). I don't want to hear anymore complaining from you DC and NOVA people :) . Looks like moderate snow works its way in Tuesday morning.



This front was not a big deal locally. Wind gusts in the 35-40 mph range with a gust front ahead of the rain--during the rain itself no strong winds. No thunder or lightning. A little over half an inch of rain--waiting for the last few spits to pass before getting my total. No cooling yet but the temperature and dewpoint are beginning to drop at Alma.
697. beell
Quoting 695. Drakoen:

NAM 00z radar (without precip classification). I don't want to hear anymore complaining from you DC and NOVA people :) . Looks like moderate snow works its way in Tuesday morning.






Looks like a fair assumption. Some decent upglide depicted on this morning's NAM-heaviest snow somewhere along either side of the red line?



289K Surface, pressure in blue, mixing ratio in green. Valid 12Z Tuesday.
Quoting 695. Drakoen:

NAM 00z radar (without precip classification). I don't want to hear anymore complaining from you DC and NOVA people :) . Looks like moderate snow works its way in Tuesday morning.




Lol.This is probably going to time with morning rush hour.Now I hope a lot of DMV drives took note after last year (probably not)
Quoting 694. sar2401:

Where's all the penguins? I wonder if they have the South Pole Police that gives you tickets for speeding on that road? I'll bet the boys get out and race those snowcats sometimes. They need something to do for fun.
Quoting 697. beell:



Looks like a fair assumption. Some decent upglide depicted on this morning's NAM-heaviest snow somewhere along either side of the red line?



289K Surface, pressure in blue, mixing ratio in green. Valid 12Z Tuesday.


Indeed beell. Orographic lift will be a factor with the system which may limit amounts east of the Apps.

The RGEM 00z (hi-res Canadian) is much more forgiving on the southern side of the system and gives me decent snows. Loving the southern trend the models have been doing over the past 24-36hrs.
00z RGEM simulating the axis you've delineated quite well beell.

00z RGEM snowfall


Good evening and a belated Happy New Year to all. I was out of town between Christmas and New Years, then got busy with stuff here in Nassau.

Unfortunately I have to go to work tomorrow :o( but am looking on the bright side, to wit:

I had a long and enjoyable vacation;
I didn't have to report to work on Jan 2
Next week Monday is a public holiday {g}.

Plus the wx has been quite good for most of my "free" time, thank goodness.

I'm looking forward to this week's wx, since it looks like things here will remain quite favorable until the end of the week....

705. beell
I forgot the link...

Earl Barker's Isentropic Page
850mb winds in excess of 50 knots should help induce some orographic lft.


Quoting 702. AussieStorm:


Hey, Aussie.... hard to believe that is so in the Caribbean.... pple here tend to assume the female storm is going to be worse .... the female being deadlier than the male.... :o)
709. beell
Current Wind Chills


Image Credit: Oklahoma Mesonet
(click graphic for larger image)

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 13 sec ago


Overcast

Overcast


23.9 °F

Feels Like 11 °F







N

19

Wind from W
Gusts 22.4 mph

You MIGHT...just might need a coat to go outside Thursday morning.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good evening and a belated Happy New Year to all. I was out of town between Christmas and New Years, then got busy with stuff here in Nassau.

Unfortunately I have to go to work tomorrow :o( but am looking on the bright side, to wit:

I had a long and enjoyable vacation;
I didn't have to report to work on Jan 2
Next week Monday is a public holiday {g}.

Plus the wx has been quite good for most of my "free" time, thank goodness.

I'm looking forward to this week's wx, since it looks like things here will remain quite favorable until the end of the week....

I'm glad to hear you had a nice vacation. We've had a little excitement around here with some tornadoes although none very severe. I did finally get more than an inch of rain from the storm which, for some reason, passed through here with a torrential downpour but no lightning or thunder. We're also expecting quite a cold wave for the middle of the week. I think it might be one of those "cool you off by 2 degree" waves by the time it gets down there. It is supposed to finally bring south Florida down into the 70's, which will be a relief from the mid-80's they've suffered through.

At least you maximized your time off work. I have to report for work...well., never, actually, but I'll be thinking of you if I happen to be awake before 10:00 or so. :-)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 13 sec ago


Overcast

Overcast


23.9 °F

Feels Like 11 °F







N

19

Wind from W
Gusts 22.4 mph
Very close to Cleveland, with a temperature of 27, a wind chill of 12 with 24 mph winds gusting to 32 mph.

I remember how much fun it used to be just walking from the house to the car. I have to remember things like this when I get my outrageous gas bills.
Quoting 711. Tornado6042008X:


You MIGHT...just might need a coat to go outside Thursday morning.


Nah, I go outside shirtless in that weather all the time. ;)
Quoting 709. beell:

Current Wind Chills


Image Credit: Oklahoma Mesonet
(click graphic for larger image)


This is a great example of how peninsular FL is usually the last refuge of warmth when the Continental US experiences mid-winter cold fronts, It is close to midnight here in Orlando and still 70 degrees. We can be chilly/cold this time of year and are typically cool, especially at night. Right now we are around 70F. I would love to bundle up and venture outside into 10-20 F weather.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Aussie.... hard to believe that is so in the Caribbean.... pple here tend to assume the female storm is going to be worse .... the female being deadlier than the male.... :o)
While that's certainly true for things like mosquitoes, it seems not so likely to be true for hurricanes, or not as a result of a very dodgy study. The National Geographic has a good summary of the study and a lot of back and forths between the study authors, their supporters, and some actual scientists who understand things like study construction...not that I have a bias about this "study". :-)
Quoting 716. sar2401:

While that's certainly true for things like mosquitoes, it seems not so likely to be true for hurricanes, or not as a result of a very dodgy study. The National Geographic has a good summary of the study and a lot of back and forths between the study authors, their supporters, and some actual scientists who understand things like study construction...not that I have a bias about this "study". :-)
Just to me [if this is the study we have talked about here in the past] it seems a bit [a wee bit] specious to generalize to that conclusion from the surveyed group selected.... but that's just my view .... ;o)

Glad you didn't get any genuine severe with that front you mentioned. I spent a dismal Boxing Day in the Fort Lauderdale area.... seemed like every time we got into the car we drove into some rather unlikely-for-late-December-in-FL rain-showers.... and it never really cooled off there, either. Luckily the rest of the trip was more auspicious, wx-wise....

I'm off. I keep forgetting I have to get up 5 hours earlier than I have been for the last few days.. .... lol ...
Looks like we already have as many tornadoes this year as last year (through February 19th) because there were only 4 tornadoes on january 11th last year and none after that until February 20th.
Quoting 702. AussieStorm:




True dat.
Remember when I went to MechaCon in 2013? Me and my brother are going again in July; and THIS time... I plan to apply for a panel. A weather panel, that is. Apparently, you can actually premeditate your own personal panel for the convention ahead of time - and even though the heart of the event is about anime, the panels don't all have to be. So I'm thinking of attempting to start my own meteorology panel. The two topics I'm considering right now are disaster mitigation and preparedness, and synoptic pressure patterns and their relationship to hurricane formation and movement. I might even combine both, honestly.

I figure the benefits are twofold: I'll be doing what I love, and my audience will hopefully glean something positive from it. New Orleans is particularly vulnerable to floods, especially during hurricanes, so I think this could go a long way to targeting the right audience (and  possibly at the right time too, since MechaCon 2015 starts in the middle of July, and August and September are the peak of the hurricane season, and when the city of New Orleans is typically most threatened). I REALLY hope this works. I hope they let me do it.

Quoting 714. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nah, I go outside shirtless in that weather all the time. ;)
Yeah right, kid.

Quoting 702. AussieStorm:


...ANA HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...

...STORM SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY DESPITE ITS NAME...
Quoting 722. KoritheMan:


...ANA HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...

...STORM SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY DESPITE ITS NAME...



MAJOR HURRICANE ANA BEELINES TOWARDS TAMPA AND ORLANDO AS CATEGORY 5, EXPECTED TO SORTA MAKE A CLOCKWISE LOOP, HIT MIAMI, THEN MOVES RIGHT TOWARDS CENTRAL GULF COAST. DOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


MAJOR HURRICANE ANA BEELINES TOWARDS TAMPA AND ORLANDO AS CATEGORY 5, EXPECTED TO SORTA MAKE A CLOCKWISE LOOP, HIT MIAMI, THEN MOVES RIGHT TOWARDS CENTRAL GULF COAST. DOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!
Lololol, the old classic doomcasting.
I am pretty sure this is just coincidence, but I wanted to just point out an observation: since 2011, when the relatively "pathetic" Atlantic hurricane seasons began, so did the "pathetic" South Florida winters. Since the winter of 2011-12 and up until and including this winter so far, South Florida has missed out a lot on intrusions of cold air, when seemingly the rest of the lower 48 has had its share of cold temperatures. Very few times have sub-60 degree lows been experienced in places like Miami, Ft Lauderdale, W. Palm Beach and Naples just as very few major hurricanes have been observed in the Atlantic during this same time period. I wonder if there is any correlation whatsoever. Any thoughts on this???

Quoting 725. lobdelse81:

I am pretty sure this is just coincidence, but I wanted to just point out an observation: since 2011, when the relatively "pathetic" Atlantic hurricane seasons began, so did the "pathetic" South Florida winters. Since the winter of 2011-12 and up until and including this winter so far, South Florida has missed out a lot on intrusions of cold air, when seemingly the rest of the lower 48 has had its share of cold temperatures. Very few times have sub-60 degree lows been experienced in places like Miami, Ft Lauderdale, W. Palm Beach and Naples just as very few major hurricanes have been observed in the Atlantic during this same time period. I wonder if there is any correlation whatsoever. Any thoughts on this???
There's no correlation. :)
Down to 2º here at 1:45 .. forecast low is 1F .. looks like we may drop down near -5 before morning ..

Wind chill running between -10 and -20 may even get as low as-25 before the night is over ..
Quoting whitewabit:
Down to 2º here at 1:45 .. forecast low is 1F .. looks like we may drop down near -5 before morning ..

Wind chill running between -10 and -20 may even get as low as-25 before the night is over ..
Quoting whitewabit:
Down to 2º here at 1:45 .. forecast low is 1F .. looks like we may drop down near -5 before morning ..

Wind chill running between -10 and -20 may even get as low as-25 before the night is over ..
Well, that was weird. It's 66 here.
Quoting 727. whitewabit:

Down to 2º here at 1:45 .. forecast low is 1F .. looks like we may drop down near -5 before morning ..

Wind chill running between -10 and -20 may even get as low as-25 before the night is over ..


18 here with a 3° windchill. Coldest day will be wednesday with a high of 8 and a low of -5... without windchill, otherwise it's a -19 and -22 windchill, respectively.
Quoting 725. lobdelse81:

I am pretty sure this is just coincidence, but I wanted to just point out an observation: since 2011, when the relatively "pathetic" Atlantic hurricane seasons began, so did the "pathetic" South Florida winters. Since the winter of 2011-12 and up until and including this winter so far, South Florida has missed out a lot on intrusions of cold air, when seemingly the rest of the lower 48 has had its share of cold temperatures. Very few times have sub-60 degree lows been experienced in places like Miami, Ft Lauderdale, W. Palm Beach and Naples just as very few major hurricanes have been observed in the Atlantic during this same time period. I wonder if there is any correlation whatsoever. Any thoughts on this???


Then you would've virtually had a nonexistent winter in 2013. :p
Quoting 724. Andrebrooks:

Lololol, the old classic doomcasting.


It'll happen any day now. You just gotta believe. It must happen as this year ends with 5, just like 2005. 2005 repeat confirmed.
Quoting 722. KoritheMan:


...ANA HEADS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...

...STORM SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY DESPITE ITS NAME...




Not Ana, Ida. It's always the I name, remember? Ingrid, Issac, Irene, Igor, Ida, Ike.

Quoting 733. TimTheWxMan:




Not Ana, Ida. It's always the I name, remember? Ingrid, Issac, Irene, Igor, Ida, Ike.
Isaac*

sorry mang
IDK, but I can make an observation from my youth. The 1980's were inactive as far as Atlantic hurricanes, but I do remember very cold and relatively snowless winters in NJ. I also remember very cold outbreaks into FL during many of those years (1986 space shuttle disaster comes to mind).


Quoting 725. lobdelse81:

I am pretty sure this is just coincidence, but I wanted to just point out an observation: since 2011, when the relatively "pathetic" Atlantic hurricane seasons began, so did the "pathetic" South Florida winters. Since the winter of 2011-12 and up until and including this winter so far, South Florida has missed out a lot on intrusions of cold air, when seemingly the rest of the lower 48 has had its share of cold temperatures. Very few times have sub-60 degree lows been experienced in places like Miami, Ft Lauderdale, W. Palm Beach and Naples just as very few major hurricanes have been observed in the Atlantic during this same time period. I wonder if there is any correlation whatsoever. Any thoughts on this???
From the NWS Miami forecast discussion (aka, "Why we like living in South Florida"):

EANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD BE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN APPEAR TO WASH OUT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW IT WILL REFORM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. AS IT DOES, AS VERY STRONG HIGH WILL MOVE OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL WORK WITH THE
LOW TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
MOVE COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN, IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES.
LOWS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 40S FOR THE INTERIOR LAKE REGION TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE LAKE
REGION TO AROUND 70 IN THE MIAMI AREA.

THIS HIGH IS VERY TRANSIENT AND WILL BE GONE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND AND COASTAL SHOWERS TO
MAKE A RETURN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EASTERLY, SO THE ATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
BACK UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STILL IN
EASTERLY SFC FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
This is why we like living in New England ;)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL DIVE INTO NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT. VERY
STRONG CAA AS H85 TEMPS DROP TO -25C TO -30C OVERNIGHT. EXCELLENT
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND DECENT PRES GRADIENT WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
NW WIND GUSTS ON ORDER OF 30-40 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW
COVER IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST
INTERIOR AREAS AND MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH ZERO IN THE BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE METRO AREAS. DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED...AS
LOW AS -20 TO -30 OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WIND CHILL HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST AREAS. MAY ALSO SEE OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

CORE OF COLD AIR MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THU WITH TEMPS RISING TO
THE TEENS /STILL RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS/.
738. MahFL
Quoting 680. PedleyCA:


Nice Temps coming back to SoCal....


That won't help the drought.
740. beell

01/05 06Z GFS 10 meter winds, 2 meter temps-valid Saturday, 01/10

Some hints of what could be a significant ice event showing up in the GFS for next weekend as a surface trough forms up in the western gulf allowing upglide moisture (over-running) atop surface temps that will still be decidedly cold.
Finally home from London, and it's colder here than it was there xD
28 degrees with wind chill at 20F. No moisture for us here in Texas, so no snow will be accompanying this cold blast. But rather cold days are ahead here, with some cold rain coming along later in the week.

I hope everyone had a great new years!
Let's see what 2015 has in store.
Quoting 732. TimTheWxMan:



It'll happen any day now. You just gotta believe. It must happen as this year ends with 5, just like 2005. 2005 repeat confirmed.

1995, 2005, and 2015.
If you take the number of storms 95' had with the number 05' had it is an increase of 9 storms, so obviously 2015 is going to have 37 named storms. 100% confirmed. (Sarcasm Flag: ON)

It can be noted that no reliable forecasters would be able to say with any confidence that a year could be active based only on the date of that year. It honestly makes no sense how someone can try to make that kind of correlation between two hyperactive years based the number the year ends with. After 1933, there were no other hyperactive years that ended in 3. The same can be said for any other essentially other than 5. (Only recently 1995 and 2005)
Quoting 736. Neapolitan:

From the NWS Miami forecast discussion (aka, "Why we like living in South Florida"):

EANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AND
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE IT SHOULD BE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND THEN APPEAR TO WASH OUT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW IT WILL REFORM OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. AS IT DOES, AS VERY STRONG HIGH WILL MOVE OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL WORK WITH THE
LOW TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
MOVE COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN, IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES.
LOWS THURSDAY LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID 40S FOR THE INTERIOR LAKE REGION TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST LOOKS TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN THE LAKE
REGION TO AROUND 70 IN THE MIAMI AREA.

THIS HIGH IS VERY TRANSIENT AND WILL BE GONE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND AND COASTAL SHOWERS TO
MAKE A RETURN POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY.
THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EASTERLY, SO THE ATLANTIC COAST LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE
BACK UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STILL IN
EASTERLY SFC FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA BY SUNDAY.


High of 60 here in Orlando on Thursday with a low of 40 to 43. 2 days of a little cool air then poof its gone again till maybe the end of the month. Very strange Winter here in FL as it just doesn't seem like Old Man Winter wants to make a visit down here.
I recorded 85 on Saturday and 86 on Sunday. Orlando nearly tied a record going back to 1938 as Orlando hit 85 record was 86. Both Melbourne & Vero Beach Tied or broke records at those 2 stations.
Winter in Orlando

Quoting 742. TylerStanfield:


1995, 2005, and 2015.
If you take the number of storms 95' had with the number 05' had it is an increase of 9 storms, so obviously 2015 is going to have 37 named storms. 100% confirmed. (Sarcasm Flag: ON)

It can be noted that no reliable forecasters would be able to say with any confidence that a year could be active based only on the date of that year. It honestly makes no sense how someone can try to make that kind of correlation between two hyperactive years based the number the year ends with. After 1933, there were no other hyperactive years that ended in 3. The same can be said for any other essentially other than 5. (Only recently 1995 and 2005)
I made the correlation that years that end with 5 something bad always happens in the Atlantic rather the year was hyperactive or not.1925 was the only exception.Go look back at the historical records.
This next warm pool moving into the W-Pac maybe stronger than the first Kelvin Wave we saw last Spring as these anomalies are extremely high for September.

cooler snap for cen fl. but nothing out of the ordinary. it would be nice to get a few freezing nights.
Quoting 748. islander101010:

cooler snap for cen fl. but nothing out of the ordinary. it would be nice to get a few freezing nights.


Mosquitoes are insane over where i live. They are worse now than what they were in the Summer. I was outside working yesterday around my house and in the shaded areas the mosquitoes were swarming.
Quoting 746. washingtonian115:

I made the correlation that years that end with 5 something bad always happens in the Atlantic rather the year was hyperactive or not.1925 was the only exception.Go look back at the historical records.


Going to have to watch this as its basically a coin flip right now as it looks as if there might be an El-Nino late Summer or Fall as you can see the very high values in Nino 3.4 but what is interesting is notice Nino 1&2 the values are noticeably lower meaning we might have a modoki event. I bring this up as overall numbers maybe lower but we will need to watch out for weather patterns that may favor a 2004 type set up.



Here is September 2004. Somewhat similar to what the CFS has for 2015.



The Super El-Nino of 1997 favored Nino 1&2





Tampa Bay area
air temp 10.6f
wind chill -8.7f
Here's another look on this modoki scenario. So my point is we could have a interesting season ahead as modoki events mean bad news for FL. That's why I say numbers maybe lower but the overall impacts could be greater than any year we've seen since 2008.



755. MahFL
Quoting 744. StormTrackerScott:

I recorded 85 on Saturday and 86 on Sunday. Orlando nearly tied a record going back to 1938 as Orlando hit 85 record was 86. Both Melbourne & Vero Beach Tied or broke records at those 2 stations.


it was 79 F here in Orange Park yesterday, near record high.
It's time to nowcast this clipper system current invading the upper western Plains region. Radar imagery is showing snow showers outbreaking over Montana, South Dakota, and even more interesting is the precipitation currently occurring over Nebraska. The precipitation over Nebraska was not modeled by the 12km or 4km NAM to occur (at least not until extreme northeastern Nebraska); however, the WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and RGEM have successfully captured the event. I believe this system will come south similar to the latter models, and even the HRRR model has continued to trend south with the precip from it's previous hourly runs.


24 degrees as i headed out the door this morning....warming to the low to mid 50's.....dry.....another cold front comes through on weds.......with a 20 percent chance of rain/snow on thursday
758. jpsb
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Going to have to watch this as its basically a coin flip right now as it looks as if there might be an El-Nino late Summer or Fall as you can see the very high values in Nino 3.4 but what is interesting is notice Nino 1&2 the values are noticeably lower meaning we might have a modoki event. I bring this up as overall numbers maybe lower but we will need to watch out for weather patterns that may favor a 2004 type set up.



Here is September 2004. Somewhat similar to what the CFS has for 2015.



The Super El-Nino of 1997 favored Nino 1&2





Models are inaccurate as many have previously posted so i wont beat a dead horse here, but the 3.4 region is continuing to fall. Your El Nino is still not here.



In other weather news, weather is perfect here in tallahassee!
Quoting WxGuy2014:


Models are inaccurate as many have previously posted so i wont beat a dead horse here, but the 3.4 region is continuing to fall. Your El Nino is still not here.



In other weather news, weather is perfect here in tallahassee!



yep no EL nino to me EL nino is falling apart at this time Scott been over hyping this from day one Scott needs too take a biger look at what rally been going on then posting the same old same old nino 3.4 maps 3 too 4 times a days wish means nothing right now all so Scott you been added too my ignore list for that vary same reason
while not a fan of the cfsv2......i'll note that michael ventrice has called it's current readings innacurate and also as recently as last week our own dr greg said it is highly inaccurate on this blog...but is it showing a long range modoki?


first...here is what a modoki el nino looks like...

notice the cooling in the easternmost and westernmost ENSO regions


now....let's see if we see long range cooling in the cfsv2 models for the eastern and western portions of the ENSO regions






so no....you cannot determine a modoki event from the cfsv2

Quoting ricderr:
while not a fan of the cfsv2......i'll note that michael ventrice has called it's current readings innacurate and also as recently as last week our own dr greg said it is highly inaccurate on this blog...but is it showing a long range modoki?


first...here is what a modoki el nino looks like...

notice the cooling in the easternmost and westernmost ENSO regions


now....let's see if we see long range cooling in the cfsv2 models for the eastern and western portions of the ENSO regions






so no....you cannot determine a modoki event from the cfsv2




YAWN!
Quoting 759. hydrus:


The heck?! How did you get the 12z European Model Run so early?
And that third cold blast for Friday/Saturday has been slowly trending more southwest.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 759. hydrus:


Wait a second are you sure that that is for Friday morning because that looks identical to early Wednesday morning.
767. vis0
Quoting 725. lobdelse81:

I am pretty sure this is just coincidence, but I wanted to just point out an observation: since 2011, when the relatively "pathetic" Atlantic hurricane seasons began, so did the "pathetic" South Florida winters. Since the winter of 2011-12 and up until and including this winter so far, South Florida has missed out a lot on intrusions of cold air, when seemingly the rest of the lower 48 has had its share of cold temperatures. Very few times have sub-60 degree lows been experienced in places like Miami, Ft Lauderdale, W. Palm Beach and Naples just as very few major hurricanes have been observed in the Atlantic during this same time period. I wonder if there is any correlation whatsoever. Any thoughts on this???

Quoting 726. KoritheMan:
There's no correlation. :)
 ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Quoting vis0:: i'm sure lobdelse81, KoritheMan know that female names cause such n such as study (cmnt#702) that SAR2401 pointed out has some faults BUT  we live in an enclosed biosphere whose "title" is "Mother" Earth, CORRELATION! (joke w/ reality included)   For more words on this weather pattern i'll place a comment on my only active blog "ml-d reset PAGE" and post (modify)  in this cmnt when i post my 22cents on that blog in 2 or 3 days from now, save this cmnt # if interested in my crazy explanations.
Quoting 742. TylerStanfield:


1995, 2005, and 2015.
If you take the number of storms 95' had with the number 05' had it is an increase of 9 storms, so obviously 2015 is going to have 37 named storms. 100% confirmed. (Sarcasm Flag: ON)

It can be noted that no reliable forecasters would be able to say with any confidence that a year could be active based only on the date of that year. It honestly makes no sense how someone can try to make that kind of correlation between two hyperactive years based the number the year ends with. After 1933, there were no other hyperactive years that ended in 3. The same can be said for any other essentially other than 5. (Only recently 1995 and 2005)



It was sarcasm, duhhh!
769. vis0

Quoting 720. KoritheMan:

Remember when I went to MechaCon in 2013? Me and my brother are going again in July; and THIS time... I plan to apply for a panel. A weather panel, that is. Apparently, you can actually premeditate your own personal panel for the convention ahead of time - and even though the heart of the event is about anime, the panels don't all have to be. So I'm thinking of attempting to start my own meteorology panel. The two topics I'm considering right now are disaster mitigation and preparedness, and synoptic pressure patterns and their relationship to hurricane formation and movement. I might even combine both, honestly.

I figure the benefits are twofold: I'll be doing what I love, and my audience will hopefully glean something positive from it. New Orleans is particularly vulnerable to floods, especially during hurricanes, so I think this could go a long way to targeting the right audience (and  possibly at the right time too, since MechaCon 2015 starts in the middle of July, and August and September are the peak of the hurricane season, and when the city of New Orleans is typically most threatened). I REALLY hope this works. I hope they let me do it.
hmm "animeweather" (© KoritheMan of WxU) wxmodels & charts w/anime segments, it'll come on The Weather Ch. "B" at 2AM.  i don't see why not, go for it get just plenty of rest so the mind can respond to any questions of interest at the MechaCon.
Quoting 740. beell:


01/05 06Z GFS 10 meter winds, 2 meter temps-valid Saturday, 01/10

Some hints of what could be a significant ice event showing up in the GFS for next weekend as a surface trough forms up in the western gulf allowing upglide moisture (over-running) atop surface temps that will still be decidedly cold.
Yep...Shouldnt be long now...
771. vis0

Quoting 745. StormTrackerScott:
Winter in Orlando

Scott yer 110% wrong (:-þ) it should be like::(waitFerit...oh don't 4get to press play arrow after hovering over my GIF)image host
Nothing reported from Crenshaw County near that time, but there was a tornado warning for Crenshaw that started from a line of strong thunderstorms and was warned for Crenshaw first warned at 0214 and lifted at 0345, so it was on the ground a long time. Law enforcement reported chicken houses destroyed and homes damaged on Cameron Chapel Rd at 0318 and homes damaged and trees down 3 miles east of Luverne at 0332. It looks like this damage is all from the probable tornado on the ground from about 0245 to 0345. If it was from a tornado at 1230, I'd expect an earlier damage report from law enforcement. The storm you saw may very well have had a funnel that never descended or did no damage. We had rotating storms all over the state, from about 1600 hours until about 0445 hours. Lots of action from a system which didn't look like much to start with.


Thanks for the clarification sar2401 I will be honest and say that I didn't exactly have all my facts correct, but thanks anyway. :)