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Top Ten Weather Stories of 2014

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:36 PM GMT on December 23, 2014

#1: Earth Likely Had Its Warmest Year on Record
The year 2014 has made it very apparent that global warming has not stopped, as the year-to-date-period January - November 2014 was Earth's warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). If December is at least 0.42°C (0.76°F) higher than its 20th century average, 2014 will surpass 2005 and 2010 as the warmest year on record; the departure of temperature from average during the first three weeks of December has exceeded that mark, making it likely that 2014 will end up as the warmest year on record in NOAA's reckoning. The average global sea surface temperature was the highest for January - November in the 135-year period of record, due in large part to seven consecutive months (May - November) of record warmth. Remarkably, the record-warm global temperatures of 2014 occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that historically has been present whenever an extended period of record-warm global temperatures have occurred.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January - November 2014, the warmest such period for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Portions of every continent with good data were record warm, particularly for Europe. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

#2: Monsoon Floods in the India-Pakistan Border Region Kill 648
Torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing at least 648 people and doing $18+ billion in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Hardest-hit were India's Jammu and Kashmir region, where damages were estimated at $16+ billion. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this is the most expensive natural disaster in India's history, surpassing the $11.6 billion price tag (2014 dollars) of the July 1993 monsoon floods. In Pakistan, at least 207 people died in this summer's deluge, and damage was estimated at $2 billion. Crippling and catastrophic floods have become the new normal in Pakistan, where the six most expensive floods in their history have come in the past eight years--2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2007, and 2013.


Figure 2. Kashmiri residents struggling to withstand sudden and strong water currents while wading through floodwaters in their efforts to move to safer places in Srinagar, India, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)

#3: India's Cyclone Hudhud Does $11 Billion in Damage
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud powered ashore near Visakhapatnam in the Andhra Pradesh state of India on October 12 as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. With damage estimated at $11 billion, Hudhud was by far the most expensive tropical cyclone in India's history, and their third most expensive weather-related natural disaster, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. However, Hudhud also represents a success story--due to aggressive efforts to evacuate vulnerable areas, the death toll from Hudhud was held to 68, far below the 9,843 people killed during the similar-strength October 28, 1999 Orissa Cyclone which hit India's coast very close to where Hudhud hit.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud taken at approximately 1 am EDT October 12, 2014, as the storm was making landfall near Visakhapatnam, India. At the time, Hudhud was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

#4: Southeastern Brazil's Worst Drought in 50 Years
Southeastern Brazil's worst drought in 50 years has brought São Paulo, South America's largest city with a population near 20 million, to the brink of running out of water. The drought has cost at least $4.3 billion, making it the third most expensive natural disaster in Brazil's history. This is the second consecutive year of disastrous drought in Brazil--drought in Northeast Brazil during the first five months of 2013 caused an estimated $8 billion in damage, making it Brazil's second most expensive natural disaster in history. According to the international disaster database EM-DAT, Brazil's costliest natural disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars, or $8.3 billion 2014 dollars.)


Figure 4. Cattle in a drought-parched field in Quixada, Ceara state, Brazil on January 2, 2014. Small farmers in Ceara state have not able to harvest corn to feed cattle, and have been selling them at a loss. Image credit: Aurelien Francisco Barros/AFP/Getty Images.

#5: The California Drought
Severe, extreme or exceptional drought covered 95% of California by September 2014, thanks to a drought that one research team said was the state's worst 1-year and 3-year drought for at least 1,200 years. The California Farm Water Coalition estimated agricultural losses at $3.6 billion.


Figure 5. One of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, on January 20, 2014. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

#6: Deadly Landslide in Afghanistan Kills up to 2,700
The deadliest weather disaster of 2014 may have been the tragic landslide in the Argo District of Badakhshan Province, NE Afghanistan on May 2. Death toll estimates vary widely, from 350 - 2,700. According to Dave's Landslide Blog, the landslide came after prolonged heavy rainfall in the region and occurred in the middle of the day on a Friday, when many people are likely to be at home. The slide occurred in two phases, with an initial slide that buried many people. In the aftermath, many people from local villages went to help, only to be buried by the second landslide.


Figure 6. Aftermath of the deadly landslide in the Argo District of Badakhshan Province, NE Afghanistan, on May 2, 2014. Image credit: BBC correspondent Bilal Sarwary.

#7: Super Typhoon Rammasun Kills 206 in China
With a name meaning “thunder of God,” Rammasun was the strongest typhoon to hit China’s Hainan Province in 41 years. Rammasun peaked as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph, and hit China with top sustained winds of 140 mph. Rammasun killed 206 and did $6.5 billion in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield.


Figure 7. Super Typhoon Rammasun as seen by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:35 p.m. local time (0535 UTC) on July 18, 2014. The storm had a well-defined eye situated just off the coast of northern Hainan Island, and a pressure of 899.2 mb was measured at a small island in the eye. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards.

#8: "Polar Vortex" Cold Hits Eastern U.S.
The same unusually sharp kink in the jet stream that brought record drought to California in January also brought extreme cold and snow to the eastern two-thirds of the United States, with a deep trough of low pressure ushering in the notorious "Polar Vortex" cold air outbreak. Ice cover on the Great Lakes reached its second highest extent on record during the winter, and two crippling snow and ice storms hit the deep South, shutting down Atlanta for multiple days. Total damages during the January 5 - 8 portion of this winter's cold blast were $3 billion and 21 people died, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield.


Figure 8. Abandoned cars litter Cobb Parkway (US 41) in Atlanta, Georgia between Cumberland Pkwy and W. Paces Ferry Road. Image credit: Michael King @mhking

#9: A Hyperactive 2014 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
In 2014 the Eastern Pacific (east of 140°W) saw 20 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes, making it the busiest season since 1992, which set records for total number of named storms (24), hurricanes (14), and intense hurricanes (8). An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The top four busiest years in the Eastern Pacific now stands like this:

1. 1992 - 24 named storms
2. 1985 - 22 named storms
3. 1983 - 21 named storms
4. 2014 - 20 named storms
4. 1990 - 20 named storms

Unusually warm ocean temperatures allowed an unprecedented three hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Hawaii in 2014, including Hurricane Iselle, which made landfall on the Big Island on August 8, 2014 as a tropical storm with 60 mph winds--only the second recorded landfall of a tropical storm on the Big Island.


Figure 9. Radar image from the South Hawaii radar at 7:49 am EDT August 8, 2014 of Tropical Storm Iselle near landfall on the Big Island. The radar beam was being intercepted by the high mountains of Hawaii, and could not "see" to the northwest.

#10: A Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season ended up with well below average activity--8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) that was 63% of the 1981 - 2010 median. The 1981 - 2010 average was 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The death and damage statistics for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season were gratifyingly low: there were only five deaths (four from Hurricane Gonzalo in the Lesser Antilles and one from Tropical Storm Dolly in Mexico), and total damages from all storms were less than $500 million. The quiet season was due to an atmospheric circulation that favored dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and high wind shear over the Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures were also near-average, and considerably cooler than what we've gotten used to since the active hurricane period that began in 1995.


Figure 10. Hurricane Gonzalo as seen from the International Space Station on October 16, 2014. At the time, Gonzalo was at peak strength, with 145 mph winds, and was the first Atlantic hurricane to reach sustained winds of at least 145 mph since Hurricane Igor of 2010. Gonzalo hit Bermuda just a week after Hurricane Fay hit the island, and Gonzalo's remnants went on to batter the United Kingdom on October 21 with wind gusts exceeding 100 mph, killing three people there. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.

Happy Holidays, everyone, and I'll be back Friday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting ACSeattle:
Even yesterday's severe outbreak couldn't deter some folks from posting long range forecasts that were to their tastes. Well, I'm gonna jump on the long range forecast bandwagon with a forecast of my own. I'm not gonna make a long range weather forcast. I'm gonna make a long range forecast of a weather forecast. I predict that around July 4, 2015, a well known individual living in the vicinity of State College, PA, being motivated by a sense of moral duty and patriotism, will announce that the winter of 2015-2016 will be one for the record books, with unrelenting bitter cold punctuated by blizzards of epic proportions. He will support this forecast by observing that since hell has frozen over, it is only a matter of time until North America goes into the deep freeze. In short order, he will appear on a certain faux news network, where his hosts will opine that it is impossible to understand how anyone can still believe in AGW in the face of such a slam dunk forecast. In support of my forecast of a forecast, I cite, as analog years, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009,...., well, you get the picture. To anyone foolhardy enough to doubt the accuracy of my forecast, I say this: I'm handy with a shotgun and will have my freezer well stocked with generous portions of crow for your dinning pleasure come mid-summer.
Awww....poor Punxsutawney Phil. Still hard at work on the Fourth. :-)
Wow. Someone really threw the wind's "on" switch.

Kids are excited for snow on the ground in the AM, and it's 61°F now, so you can get a feel for the steep gradient coming through.

Whatever your Festival of Lights happens to be, stay safe, comfortable and dry.
Quoting 501. sar2401:

Awww....poor Punxsutawney Phil. Still hard at work on the Fourth. :-)


I've wondered how it is that he sees his shadow most years in Wintertime PA which is generally cloudy.


I suspect people in MN upon hearing "six more weeks of winter" would think "ONLY SIX!!"

Quoting 499. ACSeattle:

Even yesterday's severe outbreak couldn't deter some folks from posting long range forecasts that were to their tastes. Well, I'm gonna jump on the long range forecast bandwagon with a forecast of my own. I'm not gonna make a long range weather forcast. I'm gonna make a long range forecast of a weather forecast. I predict that around July 4, 2015, a well known individual living in the vicinity of State College, PA, being motivated by a sense of moral duty and patriotism, will announce that the winter of 2015-2016 will be one for the record books, with unrelenting bitter cold punctuated by blizzards of epic proportions. He will support this forecast by observing that since hell has frozen over, it is only a matter of time until North America goes into the deep freeze. In short order, he will appear on a certain faux news network, where his hosts will opine that it is impossible to understand how anyone can still believe in AGW in the face of such a slam dunk forecast. In support of my forecast of a forecast, I cite, as analog years, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009,...., well, you get the picture. To anyone foolhardy enough to doubt the accuracy of my forecast, I say this: I'm handy with a shotgun and will have my freezer well stocked with generous portions of crow for your dinning pleasure come mid-summer.


Next summer will be warmer than this winter. Hold on the crow.

Probably more to the point. After favorable July conditions, the winter of 2015-2016 will be so brutal it will kill all of the exposed outdoor tomato plants in PA by January. A drastic cooldown, more than 35F in just six months.
And a Merry little Christmas to you Grothar :)

I'm starting to get worried. That line of storms is starting to get pretty thin. If I get 1" of rain, I'll be surprised and happy.
Speaking of thin lines...

Narrow but Intense... watch out



Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Here's a different source. But with any radar estimation, it's going to miss some isolated pockets of heavier precipitation.
And on the other hand, they can over estimate rainfall in other areas.
But they give a decent overall estimation of rainfall.

And of course, there's no rain down here in my neck of the woods.


This is a good illustration of why rainfall estimations using radar aren't very accurate. I'm in Barbour County in the SE part of the state, next to the Georgia line. There's only one station, which shows 2.75". That reading is from the ASOS station at our airport, and it hasn't been right in several years. Yes, some of us have complained. To the NE of me is Bullock, which has no stations. To the north of me, there's one station in Russell County with one station showing 2.46. That's also a bad ASOS station. I don't know why my station isn't showing up on CoCoRaHS, so I need to check in on that. Nevertheless, you can see on the second CoCoRaHS map, we don't have one reporting station in the nine surrounding counties. At this stage, I believe the two stations pretty much set the rainfall estimation for the area. You can see that Dale County, just south of me, has five stations that recorded 3.37" to 5.43", so they get red and orange while the rest of us get yellow. The problem is that this is completely incorrect. I have a CoCoRaHS and digital gauge that are normally with a few hundredths of each other, and I registered 3.96". Several hams in that blank area got rainfall ranging from 3.53" to 5.96". Those numbers match up pretty closely with the Dale County numbers. Given that there are almost no topographic differences between the two counties, this is what I'd expect.

My point is that radar estimates should only be used as a very broad indicator of rainfall, and instrumented readings are what really shows ground truth.




With all that rain up in North Florida, here's some monthly totals down here in Southern FL.

We really need a good rain out of this front down here.

Fort Myers - .04"
Miami - .88"
Key West - .54"
West Palm - .41
Naples - .04"

Quoting 506. Sfloridacat5:

I'm starting to get worried. That line of storms is starting to get pretty thin. If I get 1" of rain, I'll be surprised and happy.

real windy, pouring rain,thunder and Lightning here by me...........................
I'll be back late tomorrow. Merry christmas to everyone on the WU blog. :)
Quoting 511. TimTheWxMan:

I'll be back late tomorrow. Merry christmas to everyone on the WU blog. :)
Merry Christmas Tim
Quoting 503. georgevandenberghe:



I've wondered how it is that he sees his shadow most years in Wintertime PA which is generally cloudy.


I suspect people in MN upon hearing "six more weeks of winter" would think "ONLY SIX!!"




I've heard that they pick the outcome before hand.
OK, it's Christmas Eve.
Time to relax, get comfy and hold the hand of someone Special.
Tomorrow is The Day, and I want to wish all my Friends on this blog a very Merry Christmas.
And everyone else too :):))

And remember the Reason for the Season.
The Prince of Peace had some good things to say.
I wish everyone a Happy, Peaceful and Joyous day tomorrow, and may the New Year be a year of Peace and Love.
heavy rain in new haven,conn right now
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

FLZ033-242245-
ST. JOHNS-
510 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. JOHNS
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 545 PM EST...

AT 510 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND SPUDS...HASTINGS...ELKTON...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORE...CRESCENT
BEACH...DUPONT CENTER...SAINT AUGUSTINE SOUTH...SAINT AUGUSTINE
BEACH...ANASTASIA AND BUTLER BEACH THROUGH 545 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF
40 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 2966 8124 2966 8126 2965 8128 2965 8132
2963 8132 2962 8149 2976 8153 2990 8127
2979 8125 2970 8121 2968 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 236DEG 39KT 2970 8140

$$
Quoting 455. hydrus:

Cold air cometh.



Trying to be serious with this "Eye of Sauron," thing you have posted.
Is there any possible chance that it could brake off from the Acrtic vortex thing and wander about for a while causing serous random chaos for yourselves and others in its path?
Or is it just another damp sqib and a figment of tomorrows imaginations?


heavy rain in the northeast
Quoting LargoFl:
real windy, pouring rain,thunder and Lightning here by me...........................


You guys usually get more rain than us from cold fronts coming down.

But I was surprised to see on Wunderground that Tampa has only recieved .63" this month (officially). For some reason I thought the city got a lot more rain than that.
Next 6 Hours east haven temp going up at night
Showers and t-storms continuing through late evening. Cloudy with temps rising towards the mid 50s. Winds S at 10 to 15 mph.
Thank goodness because I was just about to go all Global Warming/Carbon Footprint on your tush.

Merry Holiday Thingy!

Quoting 484. Grothar:



The fireplace is a HD TV with an image of a fire. The garland is a holograph and isn't even there. It is projected from across the room. The tree is photoshop and isn't even there.
Merry Christmas to everyone!

Local NWS has added possible freezing rain into portions of the hill country for next week. Due to uncertainty they have added a small chance. However the GFS has been showing snow or a mix of precip for over a day now. Each day that comes it gets a little more exciting. It even bombed out a ridiculous 12-18 inches over me yesterday evening. lol

Quoting 514. pottery:

OK, it's Christmas Eve.
Time to relax, get comfy and hold the hand of someone Special.
Tomorrow is The Day, and I want to wish all my Friends on this blog a very Merry Christmas.
And everyone else too :):))

And remember the Reason for the Season.
The Prince of Peace had some good things to say.
I wish everyone a Happy, Peaceful and Joyous day tomorrow, and may the New Year be a year of Peace and Love.



Relax Until Merry

have a nice whatever it is you be doing
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Merry Christmas to everyone!

Local NWS has added possible freezing rain into portions of the hill country for next week. Due to uncertainty they have added a small chance. However the GFS has been showing snow or a mix of precip for over a day now. Each day that comes it gets a little more exciting. It even bombed out a ridiculous 12-18 inches over me yesterday evening. lol



I was in San Antonio when it snowed 13". That was about 30 years ago.
Quoting 522. SouthCentralTx:
Merry Christmas to everyone!

Local NWS has added possible freezing rain into portions of the hill country for next week. Due to uncertainty they have added a small chance. However the GFS has been showing snow or a mix of precip for over a day now. Each day that comes it gets a little more exciting. It even bombed out a ridiculous 12-18 inches over me yesterday evening. lol



I wonder if all my old friends in SA will be getting snow.
Quoting 524. Sfloridacat5:


I was in San Antonio when it snowed 13". That was about 30 years ago.


I was 3 years old, and still remember it fondly. Except for my grandma's patio roof collapsing.
.
Quoting 523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Relax Until Merry

have a nice whatever it is you be doing

Thanks !

I'm going to keep trying !
The tornado that impacted areas in and around Columbia, Mississippi yesterday, leaving two dead and over a dozen injured, has been rated a high-end EF3, with maximum estimated winds of 165 mph. This, however, is a preliminary rating, and it would not surprise me to see this upgraded to a violent EF4 tornado.

Strong shear, low CAPE days can be dangerous even if they don't result in outbreaks. The tornado that impacted Hattiesburg last year is a good example of this.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
528 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

FLZ038-242300-
FLAGLER-
528 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLAGLER COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 600 PM EST...

AT 528 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUNNELL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND ESPANOLA...BUNNELL...PALM COAST...MARINELAND AND FLAGLER
BEACH THROUGH 600 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY ONE (04U)
5:44 AM WST December 25 2014
=====================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category One (998 hPa) located at 11.1S 97.5E or 140 kilometers north northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Kate continues to track westwards and is expected to move north of the Cocos Keeling Islands today. There is the chance of Gales developing on the Islands this morning with winds easing during Friday.
Hazards:

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are forecast to develop during Thursday morning as the system moves closer to the Islands.

There is the small chance of a period of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 km/h during Thursday afternoon if the system intensifies and passes close to the islands .

As the system approaches the Cocos Keeling Islands seas will become rough with the possibility of flooding of low-lying areas and strong currents in the lagoon.

Rain is expected to be heavy at times during Thursday and Friday, with flooding possible.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING for the Cocos Islands
lol...I worked at a Maine ski resort for 7 years. I have seen all that you describe. I've even seen 6" of pure sleet (pellets). I thought it might be fun to ride, but it was more like sand. I tried all kinds of wax and it still was a let down.

I had a bad fall on an icy section. Clear ice covered by about 1" of granular. Broke my helmet. I couldn't believe how hard I hit. Without it (helmet) I would have been severely injured or worse.

Quoting 488. georgevandenberghe:



In 1984, I booked a ski trip with friends to Stowe Vt Dec 27-30. Record warmth covered the East and we drove through rain from NJ to Stowe where roads were modestly icy but melting. The warmish air came in to Stowe overnight and the next morning under pouring heavy rain,the bunny slopes were broken white with mud in between. Occasional rivers ran throughout. Upper slopes were melting granular ice. Of course we skied this stuff.

I did fine all morning but tried one last run before lunch, hit a soft spot, got turned around and fell on my ski edge
severing the medial collateral ligament cleanly. At least the surgeon had his incision ready made to repair it but I lost a lot of blood and was sick for several weeks thereafter. In 1984 I'm lucky I didn't need a transfusion.

I skied once more in 1991 without incident, then taught my kids in 2007. Two remain good skiers, the third lost interest.

If you ski in the East you have to deal with "conditions". This means ice, mud, slop, and ruts. Powder is uncommon but occasionally happens. Eastern skiers who can handle vast expanses of ice so clear you can see what grew on the slope last summer, don't get much powder experience.





severe weather in the northeast in december
Quoting pottery:
OK, it's Christmas Eve.
Time to relax, get comfy and hold the hand of someone Special.
Tomorrow is The Day, and I want to wish all my Friends on this blog a very Merry Christmas.
And everyone else too :):))

And remember the Reason for the Season.
The Prince of Peace had some good things to say.
I wish everyone a Happy, Peaceful and Joyous day tomorrow, and may the New Year be a year of Peace and Love.
That's a very pleasant and appropriate thought, Pott. Merry Christmas to you and yours from a newly soggy Alabama. :-)
536. vis0
----------- (waited till things calmed down a bit, though watches/some warning can still happen till early next morning the 25th.)
First have a safe and best as possible holiday season.  moderation , moderation,  moderation.
 
        Here my cah-rrrr-RAAAYZEE reply to sar2401 cmmnt #323 on this entry earlier on.::
       
        i've rephrased Sar2401's comment to, ¿Why are the newest radars reading vortex signatures as if Tornado (signature) is forming at the higher levels yet at times no Tornado comes down?
       
        Simple reply:: i don't know, maybe somethings nature has up her sleave that throws new radar detection a curve ball. Here comes my 22 cemtavos, maybe in the ml-d (a device i state influences weather**)  attracting a change by 2 fold as to energies at mainly mid and higher altitudes towards the inner most ml-d AOI @99% and the mid AOI...    @66%,(search "ml-d, nyc, AOI" for crappy graphics i created and locate inner most AOI) ...and the new more sophisticated/sensitive radars are picking up those sudden change that the old radars did not. The radars are programmed (CORRECTLY) to warn when they detect sudden directional changes. i say "correctly" as its better safe than sorry, the trouble is that i think its picking up ml-d sudden influence changes and experts have to inform the public that if they buy any weather equipment or read complex radar readouts to help you or your family/neighbors to be alerted to sudden dangerous weather changes that the new systems have to be read in a manner that one understands, not to think that all sheering winds at high altitudes will come down, so when those high level activities are actually coming down at an angle that can affect humans on land THEN one becomes more attentive.      &nbs p;   
       
        Headache or sleep inducing explanation where i seemingly add non related information but as people break my codes actual info will be noticed:: 
        IF YOU ARE UNDER ANY WATCH DO NOT READ, BOOKMARK or capture this page or comment with page capturing programs as "fireshot" or "nimbus"(get them later stay informed with NOAA & comments on any warnings), read when weather becomes calm. If the following is inappropriate, blame SAR or Andrebrooks (just kidding), i hope though that even if these words reads as nutty that the fact it is original writing & weather related it can remain.
       
       
        ¦ As i posted on a recent blogbyte about 17 days ago explaining again the "2 week anomaly period"("2wkAnom") the blogbyte titled:: "ml-d reset PAGE" link::http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.htm l?entrynum=257) the blogbyte IS NOT UPDATED, read ONLY comments thats were i'll post anything new, find comment #11 thru 14 as to recent "2wkAnom" The most recent "2 week anomaly" period ended on ~Sunday 201412-24, add the 2-3 day delay for physics to catch up as i always post and you'll see the greatest opportunity for a weather change occurs mostly at the start & end of these "2 week anomaly" periods.       Now add that the ml-d is always ON and when nature makes her quick decision in the upper - mid atmosphere(s)) i bet sophisticated radars read that a vortex is coming down but its the ml-d (ml-d**, i state is a device that influences nature, in this case using to influence weather) attracting energy QUICKER by 2 times the "natural" refresh rate toward the NE were the ml-d is at. If anyone reads as to these "2 week anomaly" periods you'll see how well over 80% of the sudden changes in storm patterns since 2010 around the ml-d AOIs (when i began my 3rd run at posting on WxU) occurred(ing)) are during this periods.   Wouldn't a meteorologist or weather model programmer want that info as to get a better handle on whats next, if so then why weren't any "professionals" at WxU interested?
        & nbsp;
        ¦ Just look at the hurricane seasons since 2010, and you'll notice that for whatever reason TS in the Atlantic if they include a motion towards NYC (even if they are hundreds of miles (to a thousand) away from NYC IN THE ATLANTIC and were never to get close to NYC, became "stronger" EVEN IF THEY are going against the rules of physics (heading against the weather grain of W to E). Though stronger specially at high ~ mid in altitude and i'd read experience weather professionals comment, "how can such an ill formed circulation get such a strong reading from dropsonde" yet down below closer to the surface of the ocean the circulations looked raggedy and made the entire circulation raggedy (example  2014 Bertha, 2014 Fay, many more of the 2013 Tropical things ...i mean storms fir that look, you'd even see a TS decouple and THEN the lower atmospheric portion looked symmetrical 'cause once decoupled the ml-d influnce is not transferred down.   Again i speak of after 2009's winter / 2010 till the present (201412) 'cause its easier to get predictable changes during these "2 week anomaly" periods while the ml-d is ON constantly IF one understands the ml-d, if not then you see models seem to create worse predictions than their previous model versions of the 1970s/80s/90s, simply 'cause the input they are now working on has no ml-d constant while i or anyone that would have asked for ml-d info has a known constant to work off of (ml-d specific settings) which means one has more puzzle pieces to choose from to create an entire "picture" of what is happening to better predict what change has a higher percentage to happen next.  
       
        Lets see when the following is figured out as to MJO or other physically grounded oscillations.
       
        ¦ Prior to 2010 if one could map their own, what i call "Galacsic Calendar" the already known fact that not all MJO max period lead to more active weather might be more predictable if one takes into consideration these "2 week anomaly" (2wkAnoms) periods and compares MJO or other oscillations... (AT THE CORRECT TIME as to each SPECIFIC oscillation.  MJO is best (75%) during the beginning of these "2 week anomaly" periods other oscillations blend best to create max weather output during the end of the "2wkAnoms", 1 seems best in the middle of "2WkAnoms") ...you might notice the periods where the thought that MJO activity created the stronger storms actually matched 95% of MJO's had the most MAX output when the "2 week anomaly" period was beginning, AGAIN ONLY as to after 2010.  See how 2014 TS Gonzalo looked so perfect even created an eye as a strong TS/weak Hurricane, look at the loops off NE Antilles, the "2 wkAnom" was beginning & MJO (though weak) was entering the Atlantic.
       
        ¦ In my opinion this is why European top MODEL i think is reading the ml-d quick direction changes in the mid to upper atmospheres that deal with weather which usually either takes time to transfer down or does not remain strong. In the ml-d enhancing the chances of the aforementioned 2 areas of upper atmosphere weather activities and the European models adding weight to those readings / patterns it gets a head start in predicting the next step.  NOT THAT EUROPEAN programmers THINKS someone has a weather influencing device (though years ago i sent Phillips and another European company that deals in electronics CLUEs to the ml-d and that is in nyc, no response BTW) JUST that its reading more correctly / fully the area((s)) where the ml-d "asks nature" to tap into to influence weather down below.   NO I HAVE NOT BEEN DRINKING EGG NOG, i'm not a fan of alcohol but light semisweet wines 2-3 times a year width CHEESE!!!, meats and cakes and an occasional grow then i wash it down with milk n cookies.
       
        Remember VIDs even ones with ml-d graphics are deleted from youtube after storms go off shore, tommorrow AM. My WxU blog becomes just the linked blogbyte by March 2015.
       
--------------------   ** ml-d i created in the 1970s, testing ever since and no one in the scientific community i communicated to since the 1980s or blogs since the 1990s cared to ask me any irrelevant questions of, and now that i'm retiring from sharing ml-d info (end of summer 2014 as announced several times, as 45 yrs of talking to "drying paint" aint good for the soul). i bet now some will be interested, go figure. No wonder humankind keeps taking two steps back before one step forward ,peace
Quoting Astrometeor:


I've heard that they pick the outcome before hand.
I heard that also, although I don't know if it's true. I tend to believe it, since the Vegas casinos don't carry a betting line on Phil. :-)
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Wed, Dec 24, 4:39 pm EST
... DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY.
* LOCATIONS... LONG ISLAND (INCLUDING BROOKLYN AND QUEENS) AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.
* HAZARD... DENSE FOG.
* VISIBILITY... ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
* TIMING... VISIBILITY IS RAPIDLY DROPPING AS MILD AIR FLOWS IN OFF THE OCEAN OVER LONG ISLAND. VISIBILITY ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST WILL FALL RAPIDLY BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.
* IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. IF DRIVING... SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS... AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.
&&
Quoting 482. PlazaRed:


Hydrus, that looks like something from a dramertisation of Lord of the Rings. Eye of Sauron and all that.
Is there any way its possible to get a basic outline of the shore lines on these things?
I know its the tip of the melting iceburg but the weather for you over in the far wester lands is looking very exciting too say the least.

Here in the old world its been about 18/C all week with no change in sight.
Then again we don't really want any change as 18/C in the day is fine by most of us.

Happy Christmas from all of our lot over here, to all of you lot over there and hopefully it will be a Happy New Year too.
And if there are any spelling mistakes, its because its a day off for the spell checker! Who's down the road in the pub!
From:-
Whats left of, The Plaza Red.
I do not even pay attention to spelling. The factual information is most important. Big change in the weathern pattern will send cold air south. The subtropical jet will be doin business over the southern half. Stratosphere will split , the Hudson Bay polar low will send the AO negative , along with the NAO , sub tropical jet may inject energy in large low pressure areas , depending on the primary storm track. This may lead to ice events for a large swath of the U.S.....I will tell ACSeattle that I base my forecast on current conditions that steer low pressure areas across the continent , and it does not hurt to observe large scale changes on the long range models , but at the same time , look for hemispheric conditions that are similar to past events. The evolution of this Nino has been unusual , forecasts will be tweaked as the ocean and atmosphere couple up. Where the semi permanent high is configured will ultimately decide the track of lows across the U,S. ,the PDO will have a definite affect on the polar jet.
Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The tornado that impacted areas in and around Columbia, Mississippi yesterday, leaving two dead and over a dozen injured, has been rated a high-end EF3, with maximum estimated winds of 165 mph. This, however, is a preliminary rating, and it would not surprise me to see this upgraded to a violent EF4 tornado.

Strong shear, low CAPE days can be dangerous even if they don't result in outbreaks. The tornado that impacted Hattiesburg last year is a good example of this.



TA13 and others learned in tornados!
Is this a a relativly normal outbreak for tornados in late December, or a bit of an anomoly?
It seems late in the season for this kind of outbreak and I am wondering how to intwine this event into the next years anomolies?
Its yet again so sad that lives were lost in the recent events. Condolances from myself to the families of their loved ones.
Quoting vis0:
----------- (waited till things calmed down a bit, though watches/some warning can still happen till early next morning the 25th.)
First have a safe and best as possible holiday season.  moderation , moderation,  moderation.
 
        Here my cah-rrrr-RAAAYZEE reply to sar2401 cmmnt #323 on this entry earlier on.::
       
        i've rephrased Sar2401's comment to, ¿Why are the newest radars reading vortex signatures as if Tornado (signature) is forming at the higher levels yet at times no Tornado comes down?
(Snipped for the sake of brevity and those that may have already had too much eggnog.) :-)

I don't have a clue why the new WU radar seems to show so many vortex signatures, but there are either a lot of tornadoes no one sees or something is wrong with the algorithm. I actually counted last night, and we had 19 tornado vortex signatures (the purple triangles) show up in just one hour. There were zero tornadoes reported in SE Alabama. Maybe someone just likes purple...

Anyway, tonight is not the night for such weighty matters. The sun is setting here, all the presents are wrapped and under the tree, and I'm lucky enough to have a woman who loves me, a beautiful home, and a working furnace. We are all so lucky to be living in this wonderful country, and Christmas just brings that ever nearer to my heart. Vis, I may not understand everything you say, but you're a great guy. I hope you have a wonderful holiday season and may next year be the one when your ml-d turns out to be the invention of the century.
Quoting 523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Relax Until Merry

have a nice whatever it is you be doing


I Don't Drink, but that does sound like a plan for those to do.
It has happened again.

Local met here in Fort Myers just said the line of showers is looking "pathetic."
He also said "don't expect much" as far as precipitation.

He also said he's not impressed with the next system as far as rain for our area.



Had some weather here today! 70 mph gusts and periodic heavy rain. It's been raining here for about six days. Not too intense, more of a "slow soaker", but enough to bring the water table up. The "Bottoms" are flooded and there are streams I don't recognize in the redwood forest. I haven't checked today, but yesterday we were at 151% of normal rainfall since July 1st.

The storm is breaking up now. The sun came out. I haven't seen the sun for six days, so I went outside but within about three minutes it was sideways rain again. Showers…

Should start to dry out for the weekend!

Merry Christmas Everybody!
Quoting PlazaRed:

TA13 and others learned in tornados!
Is this a a relativly normal outbreak for tornados in late December, or a bit of an anomoly?
It seems late in the season for this kind of outbreak and I am wondering how to intwine this event into the next years anomolies?
Its yet again so sad that lives were lost in the recent events. Condolances from myself to the families of their loved ones.
December is the secondary severe weather period in the South, with the main period being in the Spring. Except for the unfortunate fact that we lost four people in the storms (and three were in mobile homes), this was actually a fairly mild outbreak compared to past Decembers. As you can see from the attached chart, some people die almost every December. Because December tornadoes usually occur during relatively cool, seemingly stable weather, people don't pay as much attention as during our sultry, windy days of Spring. December and January are the only two months that we haven't seen a consistent decrease in deaths.

Quoting 488. georgevandenberghe:



In 1984, I booked a ski trip with friends to Stowe Vt Dec 27-30. Record warmth covered the East and we drove through rain from NJ to Stowe where roads were modestly icy but melting. The warmish air came in to Stowe overnight and the next morning under pouring heavy rain,the bunny slopes were broken white with mud in between. Occasional rivers ran throughout. Upper slopes were melting granular ice. Of course we skied this stuff.

I did fine all morning but tried one last run before lunch, hit a soft spot, got turned around and fell on my ski edge
severing the medial collateral ligament cleanly. At least the surgeon had his incision ready made to repair it but I lost a lot of blood and was sick for several weeks thereafter. In 1984 I'm lucky I didn't need a transfusion.

I skied once more in 1991 without incident, then taught my kids in 2007. Two remain good skiers, the third lost interest.

If you ski in the East you have to deal with "conditions". This means ice, mud, slop, and ruts. Powder is uncommon but occasionally happens. Eastern skiers who can handle vast expanses of ice so clear you can see what grew on the slope last summer, don't get much powder experience.



Here in California we ski "Sierra Cement". It's a lot like ice, but opaque. Sort of like plaster of paris. Very hard to get an edge on.
Quoting RedwoodCoast:
Had some weather here today! 70 mph gusts and periodic heavy rain. It's been raining here for about six days. Not too intense, more of a "slow soaker", but enough to bring the water table up. The "Bottoms" are flooded and there are streams I don't recognize in the redwood forest. I haven't checked today, but yesterday we were at 151% of normal rainfall since July 1st.

The storm is breaking up now. The sun came out. I haven't seen the sun for six days, so I went outside but within about three minutes it was sideways rain again. Showers%u2026

Should start to dry out for the weekend!

Merry Christmas Everybody!
I've been involved with Humboldt County on mutual aid searches for missing persons. It seems like no one ever gets lost there in summer. 70 mph winds and sideways rain were pretty typical. We had a three day search for a 72 year old mushroom picker, even though he was in an area where there weren't mushrooms. Amazingly, he was found alive after being out in weather just like you're having now. He asked me where there was a good area for mushrooms. I told him to only go to Safeway in the future. :-)

Edit: Merry Christmas to you and the other mossbacks up there.
Quoting 541. PlazaRed:


TA13 and others learned in tornados!
Is this a a relativly normal outbreak for tornados in late December, or a bit of an anomoly?
It seems late in the season for this kind of outbreak and I am wondering how to intwine this event into the next years anomolies?
Its yet again so sad that lives were lost in the recent events. Condolances from myself to the families of their loved ones.

Yesterday's tornado event is nothing out of the ordinary. In fact, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi average the most tornadoes during December. Here's a chart showing U.S. December tornadoes by year:

Quoting 546. sar2401:

December is the secondary severe weather period in the South, with the main period being in the Spring. Except for the unfortunate fact that we lost four people in the storms (and three were in mobile homes), this was actually a fairly mild outbreak compared to past Decembers. As you can see from the attached chart, some people die almost every December. Because December tornadoes usually occur during relatively cool, seemingly stable weather, people don't pay as much attention as during our sultry, windy days of Spring. December and January are the only two months that we haven't seen a consistent decrease in deaths.



Thank you,
I am amazed by all this, it seems ike people are living a Russian roulette of hell from these tornedos.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It has happened again.

Local met here in Fort Myers just said the line of showers is looking "pathetic."
He also said "don't expect much" as far as precipitation.

He also said he's not impressed with the next system as far as rain for our area.



Rats! We talked about this the other day. I lucked out because the line had a moisture tap into the Gulf so I got some decent rain instead of being cutoff by the convection. Unfortunately, the southern end of the front has very little dynamic support even out in the Gulf, and the whole thing is starting to look like Swiss cheese. The models even two days before the storm bore almost no resemblance to what actually occurred. I never expected to get almost 4" of rain. Something has gone haywire with these models. Some are less haywire than the others, but they all stink right now. I'll believe this supposed big storm for New Years when I actually see it.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Thank you,
I am amazed by all this, it seems ike people are living a Russian roulette of hell from these tornedos.
To some extent, that's true. The vast majority of the South will go for many decades without seeing a tornado. Eufaula, where I live, hasn't had a fatal tornado since 1964, 50 years ago. Other areas, like the area around Hattiesburg MS and the Limestone/Lauderdale/Madison triangle, near Huntsville, have seen fatal tornadoes every several years over the last 100 years. There's a corridor from Tuscaloosa NE through Huntsville which, for some reason, has seen the largest number of deaths and injuries of any area in Alabama. I don't know if it's topography which funnels tornadoes into the long valley but the record is clear enough that I wouldn't choose to live there.
Merry Christmas ya heathens!

Eggnog and Jack fer me!
Quoting 551. sar2401:

Rats! We talked about this the other day. I lucked out because the line had a moisture tap into the Gulf so I got some decent rain instead of being cutoff by the convection. Unfortunately, the southern end of the front has very little dynamic support even out in the Gulf, and the whole thing is starting to look like Swiss cheese. The models even two days before the storm bore almost no resemblance to what actually occurred. I never expected to get almost 4" of rain. Something has gone haywire with these models. Some are less haywire than the others, but they all stink right now. I'll believe this supposed big storm for New Years when I actually see it.
LIVE In Zephyrhils fl. got .48 quickly with a little wind. just showers now. Did get 1.70 from the rain on Monday this week. That gives me 2.68 for the month.
My favorite version of a Christmas Carol is on. The 1951 version with Alastair Sim.
Quoting 553. PensacolaDoug:

Merry Christmas ya heathens!

Eggnog and Jack fer me!






Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
let it snow in denver on Christmas day white Christmas
Quoting 553. PensacolaDoug:

Merry Christmas ya heathens!

Eggnog and Jack fer me!


Joy to the world! Happy Festivus! Let the airing of the grievances begin!
Winter Storm Eris to Bring Christmas Snow to Rockies, Plains, Upper Midwest
Christmas Eve
Snow will spread from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies into the Sierra, Great Basin and Wasatch.
Snow levels will be dropping to 4,000 feet behind the cold front in the Sierra, and to valley floors of the Great Basin late Christmas Eve night. North to northwest winds behind the cold front may lead to areas of blowing/drifting snow and low visibility in the high country of western Montana and Idaho into northern Nevada and the Sierra, particularly late in the evening.

Christmas Day
Snow will continue in the Wasatch, northern and central Rockies, particularly over much of Utah, Wyoming, southeast Idaho and western Colorado.

Heavy snow is possible not only over the high country, but also along the Wasatch Front of Utah, including Salt Lake City, Ogden and Provo.
For the Denver-Boulder-Ft. Collins Front Range urban corridor, this looks to be a modest snow event, with the bulk of the snow falling Christmas night into early Friday.

Snow will also spread into parts of South Dakota, western Nebraska, northeast Colorado and western Minnesota.

This will make for difficult travel on Christmas Day along the following interstates:

Interstate 15: Butte, Montana into Utah
Interstate 25: Southern Montana into Wyoming
Interstate 70: Colorado high country into Utah
Interstate 80: Nebraska panhandle into Utah
Quoting 551. sar2401:

Rats! We talked about this the other day. I lucked out because the line had a moisture tap into the Gulf so I got some decent rain instead of being cutoff by the convection. Unfortunately, the southern end of the front has very little dynamic support even out in the Gulf, and the whole thing is starting to look like Swiss cheese. The models even two days before the storm bore almost no resemblance to what actually occurred. I never expected to get almost 4" of rain. Something has gone haywire with these models. Some are less haywire than the others, but they all stink right now. I'll believe this supposed big storm for New Years when I actually see it.

I wonder if the roaring jet stream over the Pacific is giving the models fits
How Much Snow?
Of course, the heaviest snow totals will occur over the mountains of the northern and central Rockies and Wasatch, where totals over a foot are likely through late Friday. See the map above at right for our latest forecast.
That said, the Snake River Valley of Idaho, lower elevations of Wyoming, western and southern Montana, the Salt Lake Valley, northern Nevada and eastern Oregon will also pick up significant snowfall, generally less than 8 inches,
Generally light accumulations (4 inches or less) are expected farther east into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as in a few parts of the southern High Plains.

Quoting severstorm:
LIVE In Zephyrhils fl. got .48 quickly with a little wind. just showers now. Did get 1.70 from the rain on Monday this week. That gives me 2.68 for the month.
Well, at least you got something, but not enough to cause problems. I was very surprised to get almost four inches up here. The majority of the heavy rain all happened in about two hours, with rain rates as high as seven inches per hour. We had the typical Florida storm. Tremendous cloud to ground lightning that knocked out power, the cable TV and internet, and even the cell tower that I normally use. Everything was off for about 45 minutes and then slowly started to come up again, although we lost power for another five minutes as they were restoring the grid. You can certainly tell how bad our drought has been. Even during the heaviest rains, we only had some moderate size puddles. As soon as the rate slowed down, the ground sucked it right up again. I was walking around the yard this morning and it was only slightly squishy, so we could still use some more.
Quoting ACSeattle:

I wonder if the roaring jet stream over the Pacific is giving the models fits
Good question. It's not like the jet stream over the Pacific has never been roaring along like an F-16 before. I suspect the unusually high SST's in the Pacific and this kinda, almost El Nino is the problem. I'm assuming since there's not a "real" El Nino, the models aren't handling the inputs properly. I assume people way smarter than me are trying to figure this out but, when the locals are looking at models only eight hours ahead and can't figure out why the solutions don't match the synoptics, something is wrong.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
My favorite version of a Christmas Carol is on. The 1951 version with Alastair Sim.
"Bah, Humbug". That really was the best version. I have it on DVD and I think I've managed to wear it out from watching it so often. I also read "A Christmas Carol" every year starting on December 1, and I'm on the best part now, where he wakes up and discovers it's still Christmas. I imagine you've read it before, but it's not hard to read or very long for those that haven't. Dickens description of the dark, cold London winter will send shivers through you in July. :-)
Quoting ACSeattle:

I wonder if the roaring jet stream over the Pacific is giving the models fits
When AO is Negative , and west coast high emerges..The Mets will have plenty of work.
Polar vort.




heavy rain in the northeast at 7:30pm on December 24, 2014
Quoting 524. Sfloridacat5:



I was in San Antonio when it snowed 13". That was about 30 years ago.


Yep January 11-13 1985 (I wasn't born yet), seems like that would probably be a once in a lifetime event though. Would be nice. :)

Quoting 563. sar2401:

Well, at least you got something, but not enough to cause problems. I was very surprised to get almost four inches up here. The majority of the heavy rain all happened in about two hours, with rain rates as high as seven inches per hour. We had the typical Florida storm. Tremendous cloud to ground lightning that knocked out power, the cable TV and internet, and even the cell tower that I normally use. Everything was off for about 45 minutes and then slowly started to come up again, although we lost power for another five minutes as they were restoring the grid. You can certainly tell how bad our drought has been. Even during the heaviest rains, we only had some moderate size puddles. As soon as the rate slowed down, the ground sucked it right up again. I was walking around the yard this morning and it was only slightly squishy, so we could still use some more.
yep no issues here. it takes a lot of water to put Zephyrhills in trouble. I work in Tampa. Now theres a city that can not handle a lot of water.
Quoting 561. ACSeattle:


I wonder if the roaring jet stream over the Pacific is giving the models fits


Yes but that's not new. When the jet (and action) are over the ocean rather than looping up over the continents and then down into the CONUS, the models are harder to initialize. In this case, what determines your weather three or four days out is out over the Eastern Pacific and is not well resolved in our observations. Satellites are far from perfect even today.
HoHoHo...ESPI is -0.71
Extreme Weather in Sri Lanka on Tuesday, 23 December, 2014 at 12:29 (12:29 PM) UTC.

Back
Updated: Wednesday, 24 December, 2014 at 14:16 UTC
Description
3 men and women had been killed and more than 60,000 were evacuated from their homes due to heavy floods and mudslides caused by torrential rains in Sri Lanka, reports mentioned, citing officials. The rain, which is nevertheless continuing, has already destroyed almost 1,900 homes, The Connected Press reported, citing government officials. The country's 15 districts have been witnessing heavy rains for the past three days. Hospitals and other government buildings in the nation had also been reportedly flooded. Some inmates of a prison had also been transferred to other facilities in the country. According to an official statement released by the Sri Lankan government on Monday, more than 7,000 army personnel were deployed to the places impacted by the floods. The army also offered packets of cooked meals to the households who were left stranded due to the destruction triggered by the floods. On Tuesday, the country's meteorological department had warned that higher winds and heavy showers are probably to continue across the country's northern and eastern coasts. "Due to the atmospheric disturbance in the vicinity of Sri Lanka the possibility for rain and the robust winds in the course of thunder showers is very higher, the Met. Dept. forecasts," the government mentioned, in a statement on Tuesday, adding: "There may perhaps be temporary localized strong winds in the course of thundershowers. General public is kindly requested to take sufficient precautions to lessen the damages triggered by lightning activities." Earlier in October, heavy rains had caused mudslides at a tea plantation, 120 miles from the capital city of Colombo, killing more than 100 men and women. Over 60 houses have been buried in the mudslide, which sprawled almost two miles. Our editors found this article on this site using Google and regenerated it for our readers.
Quoting 548. sar2401:

I've been involved with Humboldt County on mutual aid searches for missing persons. It seems like no one ever gets lost there in summer. 70 mph winds and sideways rain were pretty typical. We had a three day search for a 72 year old mushroom picker, even though he was in an area where there weren't mushrooms. Amazingly, he was found alive after being out in weather just like you're having now. He asked me where there was a good area for mushrooms. I told him to only go to Safeway in the future. :-)

Edit: Merry Christmas to you and the other mossbacks up there.

Thanks SAR, yes I remember your story. Thank you for your service. And yeah, very wet here but us long-timers are like, "what, December in Humboldt. What did you expect?".
Quoting severstorm:
LIVE In Zephyrhils fl. got .48 quickly with a little wind. just showers now. Did get 1.70 from the rain on Monday this week. That gives me 2.68 for the month.


Got about the same. Very nice December rains. We didn't get the 7" and widespread severe weather that was insisted we would get on here.
577. beell
Quoting 567. hydrus:

Polar vort.




Rex block.

Quoting 572. georgevandenberghe:



Yes but that's not new. When the jet (and action) are over the ocean rather than looping up over the continents and then down into the CONUS, the models are harder to initialize. In this case, what determines your weather three or four days out is out over the Eastern Pacific and is not well resolved in our observations. Satellites are far from perfect even today.

You didn't answer my question before..Do you see the new cell towers that they are putting up?.They are much taller than the previous ones.
The power is flickering.
Hail.

We are having freaking hail.

On Christmas Eve.

I suppose it could be graupel, but that's some big@ss graupel. 1/8" to 1/4"

I told the kids as we were driving back from an elderly friend's, "see that line of clouds? It's probably snowing in Reno, and that's what a hurricane can look like when it's blowing in."

Along the western skyline, it really did remind me of one.

Glad it all held off until after we delivered the gingerbread house.
Quoting 577. beell:



Rex block.


Yep..



The Rex Block was named for Commander Daniel F. Rex .
Merry Christmas to all!

Merry Christmas everyone.
East Haven, Connecticut 57 F on December 24, 2014 at 9pm temp going up fast now new york city to boston
East Haven, Connecticut 59 F Light Rain Fog at 9:13pm
Quoting 576. luvtogolf:



Got about the same. Very nice December rains. We didn't get the 7" and widespread severe weather that was insisted we would get on here.


7 inches and severe weather? I don't think so, there weren't any forecasts showing that, although model guidance still did perform poorly, because it was originally supposed to be a 2-3 inch event in Central Florida this past weekend.

The reason why is the models underestimated how strong the ridge would be to the east. As a result, the low that developed in the gulf went due north, and by the time the cold front made it into Central Florida, the energy and support moved well away. The only reason this front even brought any rain with so little support is due to the very moist atmosphere.

If the low placement was from the gulf moving across north Florida like originally expected, then there could have been the amount of rain across Central Florida that occurred up in the Tallahassee area given the amount of moisture, heat, and instability around.
Pathetic, only 0.33" rain here in Sanford. The coverage of storms fell apart as the line approached Orlando area. This always does this when these storms in the winter advance east and north. All the dynamics heads north and so do the heavy rains
Quoting Jedkins01:


7 inches and severe weather? I don't think so, there weren't any forecasts showing that, although model guidance still did perform poorly, because it was originally supposed to be a 2-3 inch event in Central Florida this past weekend.

The reason why is the models underestimated how strong the ridge would be to the east. As a result, the low that developed in the gulf went due north, and by the time the cold front made it into Central Florida, the energy and support moved well away. The only reason this front even brought any rain with so little support is due to the very moist atmosphere.

If the low placement was from the gulf moving across north Florida like originally expected, then there could have been the amount of rain across Central Florida that occurred up in the Tallahassee area given the amount of moisture, heat, and instability around.


I could go back and quote the person who insisted on the 7" of rain and severe weather for us but it isn't worth it. The NWS had this forecasted pretty well.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY ONE (04U)
8:52 AM WST December 25 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category One (998 hPa) located at 10.9S 97.3E or 150 kilometers north northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Kate continues to track westwards and is expected to move north of the Cocos Keeling Islands during Thursday. Gales may develop on the Islands during Thursday before winds ease during Friday.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may develop during Thursday as the system passes to the north of the Cocos Keeling Islands.

There is the small chance of a period of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 km/h during Thursday evening if the system intensifies and passes close to the islands.

As the system approaches the Cocos Keeling Islands seas will become rough with the possibility of flooding of low-lying areas and strong currents in the lagoon.

Rain is expected to be heavy at times during Thursday and Friday, with flooding possible.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 11.2S 96.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 11.6S 95.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 12.2S 94.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 13.1S 92.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
==================
Tropical Cyclone Kate was located using microwave imagery and persistence. Recent motion has been westwards at around 5 knots.

Dvorak: Shear pattern with center <0.5 degree from strong temperature gradient gives DT of 3.0. MET/PAT is 2.5 based on a D- trend. FT/CI set to 3.0 with 35 knot winds [10 minute averaged winds]. Microwave imagery showed deep convection displaced to the southwest of the low level circulation center, consistent with the shear pattern.

CIMSS shear at 18 and 00 UTC showed about 20 knots of shear [NE] over the system which has been inhibiting development. There is good poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures near the system.

Kate is moving towards the west southwest under the influence of a weak mid level ridge. On Friday the passage of an upper level trough to the south will decrease the shear and steer to the system more to the south.

Kate is forecast to slowly intensify during Thursday but more so from Friday as shear decreases. The system may reach category 3 [hurricane intensity] as it moves towards the south southwest on Saturday before increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures [<26C south of 18S] cause the system to weaken from late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING for the Cocos Islands
Quoting 579. nonblanche:

The power is flickering.
Hail.

We are having freaking hail.

On Christmas Eve.

I suppose it could be graupel, but that's some big@ss graupel. 1/8" to 1/4"

I told the kids as we were driving back from an elderly friend's, "see that line of clouds? It's probably snowing in Reno, and that's what a hurricane can look like when it's blowing in."

Along the western skyline, it really did remind me of one.

Glad it all held off until after we delivered the gingerbread house.

It was four hours of cold, windy rain and slush in Truckee this afternoon, with a brief lull allowing us to deliver yummy goodies to our friends and neighbors. No. 2 daughter is riding the train from Grand Junction tonight, should have a pretty trip up through the Truckee River canyon in the morning.

My wife has informed me it is snowing, so a white Christmas is on its way.
Quoting 571. severstorm:

yep no issues here. it takes a lot of water to put Zephyrhills in trouble. I work in Tampa. Now theres a city that can not handle a lot of water.


Yep that's because a decent amount of Tampa was built in wet land areas, when it rains hard, the same areas fill up quick with flood water just as they would naturally. It's not that the drains aren't up to specs, its location that's a problem.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yep that's because a decent amount of Tampa was built in wet land areas, when it rains hard, the same areas fill up quick with flood water just as they would naturally. It's not that the drains aren't up to specs, its location that's a problem.


Quoting SouthCentralTx:


Yep January 11-13 1985 (I wasn't born yet), seems like that would probably be a once in a lifetime event though. Would be nice. :)



San Antonio also had 2 1/2" of snow on January 2 1985. Aside from the super San Antonio snowstorm 10 days later it has not snowed as much there since.
0.55 inches tonight at my location in NW Tampa. It only rained hard for about 45 seconds. Just a light drizzle now.
Quoting 506. Sfloridacat5:

I'm starting to get worried. That line of storms is starting to get pretty thin. If I get 1" of rain, I'll be surprised and happy.



Yeah, it was a pretty small line up here, 0.51 at my location in Pinellas, it did rain very heavy along with a few lightning strikes, it just didn't last very long at all. December has been very dry, but we aren't doing too bad given September through November were plenty wet.
Quoting 587. luvtogolf:



I could go back and quote the person who insisted on the 7" of rain and severe weather for us but it isn't worth it. The NWS had this forecasted pretty well.


The models started backing off on the rain totals for C FL early yesterday. The WPC pretty much nailed the forecast for the Southeast in general. Assigning any sort of precision to the long range models is an exercise in futility.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
12:00 PM FST December 25 2014
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1000 hPa) located at 15.1S 158.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position fair based on GOES infrared/visible imagery with animation. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Convection re-developed near low level circulation center but cut short due to a moderate to high sheared environment. TD03F lies under a moderate upper divergent region. Outflow good to the far east but restricted over the system. Cyclonic circulation extends u to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Cloud pattern not clear giving DT=unknown, MET=2.0 and PT=1.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Global models generally agree on a southerly movement with no further intensification.

The potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

This is the final tropical disturbance advisory from RSMC Nadi on this system.
Might squeak out a half inch!
A healthy Merry Christmas to all!
I hope everyone has a very blessed and wonderful Merry Christmas. Hope everyone has a good say. And one gift I will give to you is:
I apologize for eveything that I have done and what I might of said. Just please forgive me.
Quoting 570. SouthCentralTx:



Yep January 11-13 1985 (I wasn't born yet), seems like that would probably be a once in a lifetime event though. Would be nice. :)


1985 was very cold for the U.S..I was working on the Great Lakes back then 3 and 4 inch lines frozen solid on the deck.. Had to beat the lines around the bits with sledge hammers.



From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Winter 1985 Arctic outbreak)
A map of the United States detailing the record low temperatures for various cities on January 21, 1985.

The Winter 1985 cold wave was a meteorological event, the result of the shifting of the polar vortex further south than is normally seen. Blocked from its normal movement, polar air from the north pushed into nearly every section of the eastern half of the United States and Canada, shattering record lows in a number of areas. The event was preceded by unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S. in December 1984, suggesting that there was a build-up of cold air that was suddenly released from the Arctic, a meteorological event known as a Mobile Polar High, a weather process identified by Professor Marcel Leroux.

Meteorological synopsis

From Sunday, January 20, to Tuesday, January 22, 1985, the polar vortex, coupled with a large ridge of high pressure, moved polar air into the United States as far south as Florida. Unlike most cold air systems, a pattern of self-modification did not immediately occur, i.e. seasonable temperatures were absent for a number of days, a rarity in forecasting.


February 1985 was the last month the globe had temps below the 20th century average.
Quoting 582. AussieStorm:

Merry Christmas everyone.

Merry Christmas mate... long time no see Aussie around here

Merry Christmas to all who make WU a wonderful place
Quoting 578. washingtonian115:

You didn't answer my question before..Do you see the new cell towers that they are putting up?.They are much taller than the previous ones.


I haven't seen them.
Quoting MaxWeather:

Merry Christmas mate... long time no see Aussie around here

Merry Christmas to all who make WU a wonderful place
Merry Christmas Max and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY ONE (04U)
11:50 AM WST December 25 2014
=====================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category One (998 hPa) located at 11.2S 97.1E or 115 kilometers north northeast of the Cocos Keelings Islands has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots..

Tropical Cyclone Kate continues to move towards the west southwest and is expected to pass north of the Cocos Keeling Islands during Thursday. Gales may develop on the Islands during Thursday before winds ease during Friday.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may develop during Thursday as the system passes to the north of the Cocos Keeling Islands.

There is the small chance of a period of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 150 km/h during Thursday evening if the system intensifies and passes close to the islands.

As the system approaches the Cocos Keeling Islands seas will become rough with the possibility of flooding of low-lying areas and strong currents in the lagoon.

Heavy rain is occurring and is likely to continue during Thursday and into Friday, with flooding possible.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING for the Cocos Islands
Quoting 601. hydrus: The event was preceded by unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S. in December 1984, suggesting that there was a build-up of cold air that was suddenly released from the Arctic



Preceded by a warm December coincidence? We shall see. Difference appears that the winter of 84-85 had a weak La Nina.
Merry Christmas to all on WU. Hope it's a good one!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Merry Christmas to all on WU. Hope it's a good one!
Merry Christmas TA13 and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.
Quoting 605. Andrebrooks:

Merry Christmas Max and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.

there is nothing to forgive.
Merry Christmas
Quoting 609. Andrebrooks:

Merry Christmas TA13 and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.

I'm not sure what you're talking about...I haven't seen anything annoying from you. But sure, I forgive you. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure what you're talking about...I haven't seen anything annoying from you. But sure, I forgive you. ;)
Thank you TA13. You have a great day.
Ho ho ho! Merry Christmas!
Merry Christmas. May we celebrate Christ. Found out a week ago my Dad is diagnosed with stage four cancer. Just found out tonight my fiance, on vacation misscarriaged. I am crushed beyond any wordly definition. I give pause to give thanks to the blessings I have. I give pause to those who have suffered so much more. While we all have reasons to be in pain, given the time to truly reflect, we have so much more to be thankful for. While I write this in tears and great pain, I am thankful for what I have, and the life I've been given the grace to live. A thankful Christmas to all and may next year be even better. I am crushed but not defeated.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Merry Christmas. May we celebrate Christ. Found out a week ago my Dad is diagnosed with stage four cancer. Just found out tonight my fiance, on vacation misscarriaged. I am crushed beyond any wordly definition. I give pause to give thanks to the blessings I have. I give pause to those who have suffered so much more. While we all have reasons to be in pain, given the time to truly reflect, we have so much more to be thankful for. While I write this in tears and great pain, I am thankful for what I have, and the life I've been given the grace to live. A thankful Christmas to all and may next year be even better. I am crushed but not defeated.
Amen Deep, may God be with you at all times and heal the broken and hurt. And Merry Christmas forgive me for be annoying and a disturbance.
These things are easier to express here. Outside of Gro, TA, Kori, Sar, I know so many so little. Tonight is one of the worst of my life and yet I will choose to focus on my blessings. I know I am blessed, even through great sorrow and suffering. Life is hard, it is about what we are working towards though the suffered and that is salvation.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
These things are easier to express here. Outside of Gro, TA, Kori, Sar, I know so many so little. Tonight is one of the worst of my life and yet I will choose to focus on my blessings. I know I am blessed, even through great sorrow and suffering. Life is hard, it is about what we are working towards though the suffered and that is salvation.
Yeah, sometimes God tests you with things in order to bring up your faith, which you do have. So yeah I know it's hard, but just keep believing friend and everything is going to be alright.
Andre, thank you, your words bring me comfort.
Quoting 616. DeepSeaRising:

These things are easier to express here. Outside of Gro, TA, Kori, Sar, I know so many so little. Tonight is one of the worst of my life and yet I will choose to focus on my blessings. I know I am blessed, even through great sorrow and suffering. Life is hard, it is about what we are working towards though the suffered and that is salvation.


I wish I could say something to make it better. But I can't. My Dad went thru stage 4 cancer and knock on wood over 10 years later he is still here with us. My wife had horrible pregnancies that were very difficult, but the result is that we have two wonderful kids and neither one of us would do it differently. We persevered through it. You may not believe this and I don't force mine on other people. However, I believe that things happen for a reason and it is often not until years later that we understand that reason. It doesn't make it any easier when you are going through it though.
Hi there everybody and Merry Christmas! i wish, if there are some meteorologists here, to confirm me that Monday Romania (S-E Europe), will be hit by a very strong low, with the center just over S-E Romania and usual this means very severe weather with gusts reaching 90 km/h and heavy snow. I know that a few of you have access to some weather models inaccessible to us. Thank you.

Quoting 605. Andrebrooks:

Merry Christmas Max and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.
We call that puberty.

Sorry, I had to. :)

Merry Christmas, buddy.
Sorry to hear about your circumstances, Tribucanes. I hope you find solace in some way, and that there was something more I could do besides sit behind a computer providing well-wishing, but unfortunately...
Merry Christmas - Santa forgot to bring us rain.

Officially we picked up .01" from this last system.
The rain some how missed Fort Myers again.

That brings the monthly total up to .05"
Merry Christmas the weather in new york city next to 60F wow!!


its time to kick the warm out of the northeast soon
Merry Christmas to you all from Nova Scotia! It's raining, 13 degrees C. (55 degrees F). Warm and wet!
MERRY CHRISTMAS

it's eighty degrees, the humidity is seventy, and all's well.

Have a Blast today
How Much Snow?
Of course, the heaviest snow totals will occur over the mountains of the northern and central Rockies and Wasatch, where totals over a foot are likely through late Friday. See the map above at right for our latest forecast.

That said, the Snake River Valley of Idaho, lower elevations of Wyoming, western and southern Montana, the Salt Lake Valley, northern Nevada and eastern Oregon will also pick up significant snowfall, generally less than 8 inches, but enough to lead to travel problems (as mentioned in the Thursday section above).

Generally light accumulations (4 inches or less) are expected farther east into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as in a few parts of the southern High Plains.
Quoting 627. pottery:

MERRY CHRISTMAS

it's eighty degrees, the humidity is seventy, and all's well.

Have a Blast today
MERRY CHRISTMAS
Quoting hurricanes2018:


its time to kick the warm out of the northeast soon


Please kick it out of the SE too
631. txjac
Merry Christmas WU!
Woke up to 36F this morning.
Hope everyone has a blessed, peaceful, enjoyable day
Merry Christmas, WU

35F in Louisiana this morning, nice and crisp outside - in comparison, it's sort of amazing that Nova Scotia's at 55

Saw Skye's post about Sri Lanka. Anyone hear from the person who was posting from there recently asking for model info? (I think it was Sri Lanka, anyway).
Today's highs across the country.

Based on these temperatures, only a small area (Northern Plains and Inner Mountain Region) of the U.S. will experience a White Christmas this year.
Merry Christmas everyone! It hit 61F for a high temperature here in the pre-dawn hours this morning. I'd imagine some records have been broken in the region. Have a great day!
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Merry Christmas. May we celebrate Christ. Found out a week ago my Dad is diagnosed with stage four cancer. Just found out tonight my fiance, on vacation misscarriaged. I am crushed beyond any wordly definition. I give pause to give thanks to the blessings I have. I give pause to those who have suffered so much more. While we all have reasons to be in pain, given the time to truly reflect, we have so much more to be thankful for. While I write this in tears and great pain, I am thankful for what I have, and the life I've been given the grace to live. A thankful Christmas to all and may next year be even better. I am crushed but not defeated.
Good morning, Trib, and Merry Christmas. Since you're a believer, you know things are done by His will, not ours. I had what I humanely believed to be the misfortune of my dad, my mom, and my wife all dying in the same year. After my wife died, I sat there for three days with my .45 in my lap. I had two obvious choices, one to end the immediate pain and the other to put one foot in front of the other and get moving. Thankfully, I took the choice to get moving. Now it's 10 years later. You never forget, but you do heal. My only words of comfort is that it all happens for a reason and God knows how much pain you can stand. Enjoy the beautiful day, brother, and look forward to the new year and better times.
Quoting LAbonbon:
Merry Christmas, WU

35F in Louisiana this morning, nice and crisp outside - in comparison, it's sort of amazing that Nova Scotia's at 55

Saw Skye's post about Sri Lanka. Anyone hear from the person who was posting from there recently asking for model info? (I think it was Sri Lanka, anyway).

Goo morning and Merry Christmas, Bon Bon. I love that name. :-) I don't remember a poster from Sri Lanka. Maybe someone else does, given my faulty memory. Strange weather indeed, but I can imagine the folks in Nova Scotia playing beach volleyball for Christmas.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Merry Christmas everyone! It hit 61F for a high temperature here in the pre-dawn hours this morning. I'd imagine some records have been broken in the region. Have a great day!
Dang! Take a picture of a thermometer now. It probably won't happen again in your lifetime. :-) Merry Christmas.
Quoting txjac:
Merry Christmas WU!
Woke up to 36F this morning.
Hope everyone has a blessed, peaceful, enjoyable day
Merry Christmas, TX, and many happy returns of the day.
Quoting pottery:
MERRY CHRISTMAS

it's eighty degrees, the humidity is seventy, and all's well.

Have a Blast today
Merry Sweaty Christmas, Pott. :-)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Please kick it out of the SE too
Merry Christmas, WKC. For all the grief I give you, you're still a pretty good guy. Must be a nice long holiday weekend down there.
good morning to all merry Christmas from my house to yours

ok enough of that
now its time to bring out the food
dinner is served at noon
followed by a long winters nap afterwards

have a great day to all
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Merry Christmas - Santa forgot to bring us rain.

Officially we picked up .01" from this last system.
The rain some how missed Fort Myers again.

That brings the monthly total up to .05"
Sorry about the missed present there but I can't say I'm surprised. I'm happy I finally got some, and maybe it'll be your turn next time around. Enjoy that beach and have a Merry Christmas.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good morning to all merry Christmas from my house to yours

ok enough of that
now its time to bring out the food
dinner is served at noon
followed by a long winters nap afterwards

have a great day to all
I'll be over to your place directly, Keep. Have a Merry Christmas and thanks for riding herd here all year. :-)
Quoting 636. sar2401:


Goo morning and Merry Christmas, Bon Bon. I love that name. :-) I don't remember a poster from Sri Lanka. Maybe someone else does, given my faulty memory. Strange weather indeed, but I can imagine the folks in Nova Scotia playing beach volleyball for Christmas.


Morning, Sar - happy to see you got some rain finally. I was beginning to think of you and Sfloridacat5 as the Cariboys of the SE CONUS...now if only South Florida could see some rain, then most of us would be (relatively) satisfied. Well, except for those wanting snow for Christmas...

I'm imagining folks in Nova Scotia standing around outside in T-shirts while deep-frying their turkeys.

BTW, the blogger from GA wanting snow is lostinohio.
For Christmas nature has decided to give us sunshine after what seemed like eons without it.The natural dry out session is in process with winds and the sun both working together to dry things out after two days of rain.
Merry Christmas everybody, the storm has finally departed us here in Savannah Georgia, leaving clear conditions and a wonderful Christmas behind. Is it true that the GFS model is showing snow in Georgia around Atlanta and Savannah around New Years day.
647. yoboi
34 here in SWLA......I will say the forecast was blown Tuesday for my part of Louisiana.....was suppose to be a 60% chance of rain.....Had tornados and over 4 inches of rain.....
India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin
=============================

VORTEX OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN NEAR SRI LANKA. LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED AT 5.0N 82.8E

DVORAK INTENSITY: T1.0

------------------------------------------------- ----

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY ONE (04U)
8:49 PM WST December 25 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category One (990 hPa) located at 12.1S 96.2E or 70 kilometers west of the Cocos Keeling Islands has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
25 NM from the center in northern quadrants
35 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Kate is now moving away from the islands and weather conditions should continue to improve, though there may be periods of squally showers overnight.

Winds have eased below gale force on the islands and are expected to continue to ease overnight. Squally showers and thunderstorms with gusts to 85 km/h are possible overnight and during Friday, but but prolonged periods of gales and flooding rains are not expected. Strong currents are expected to continue in the lagoon overnight into Friday.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 12.6S 95.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 13.0S 94.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 14.2S 93.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 15.6S 93.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
==================.
Using a curved band pattern on an 1130 UTC stretched IR image it is possible to get 0.6 wrap. Using a shear pattern gives consistent 3.0 DT with the distance from the overcast [or Tb gradient] not varying greatly from one hour to the next. Cloud top temps are colder than yesterday but the apparent organization is weaker giving a 24 trend of S, yielding a MET of 3.0, which is not adjusted by the PAT. Hence FT and CI are 3.0. Objective intensity analysis aids have been missing in action [because this is a relatively weak system]. Thankfully subjDVK has provided good guidance with the estimated intensities matching well to available scatterometry and to the obs on Cocos Islands. The Rapidscat pass at 0208UTC matched Cocos observations well and wind radii parameters have been set based on that pass and Cocos obs.

Cocos Keeling Islands experienced gales between 0550 UTC and 0720 UTC.

The system is under moderate north to northeast shear at present and that is expected to continue in the short term. If the system hangs on it may experience a more favorable shear environment for a brief period before the westerlies [and low ocean heat content] take their toll, but this is not certain and the EC indicates the 300hPa vorticity center begins to shear away by 12 UTC on the 28th. The intensity forecast is based on applying the trend in objective guidance [which is relatively consistent].

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING for the Cocos Islands has been cancelled

*NOTE: There will be no more tropical cyclone advices for Cocos islands on this system.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 25 2014
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 158.2W is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots. Position poor based on GOES visible imagery and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperatures is around 30C.

Convection remains persistenet in the past 12 hours. 03F lies under a moderate upper divergent region. Outflow good to the far east but restricted elsewhere. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with a slight intensification.

The potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE.

System #2
-----------

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1001 hPa) located at 12.7S 173.8W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the past 12 hours. The system lies under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it eastward with a slight intensification.

The potential for this system to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
Quoting 620. matara28:

Hi there everybody and Merry Christmas! i wish, if there are some meteorologists here, to confirm me that Monday Romania (S-E Europe), will be hit by a very strong low, with the center just over S-E Romania and usual this means very severe weather with gusts reaching 90 km/h and heavy snow. I know that a few of you have access to some weather models inaccessible to us. Thank you.

I see no one has yet answered your inquiry. WuMail Barbamz (or maybe she'll see this post).
She is in Germany and very good about keeping track of European and World weather news.
Merry Christmas to every member of the Weather Underground community =)
Quoting: LAbonbon ~ Saw Skye's post about Sri Lanka. Anyone hear from the person who was posting from there recently asking for model info? (I think it was Sri Lanka, anyway).


Thanks for reminding me.. A late track model came out on that storm. I sent it on to Murko.


{{{DeepSeaRising}}}


Happy Holidays Everyone!
Man, I'd give you a big warm hug if I could. Keep your chin up. Holiday blessings.

Quoting 616. DeepSeaRising:

These things are easier to express here. Outside of Gro, TA, Kori, Sar, I know so many so little. Tonight is one of the worst of my life and yet I will choose to focus on my blessings. I know I am blessed, even through great sorrow and suffering. Life is hard, it is about what we are working towards though the suffered and that is salvation.
Well said. Couldn't have expressed it any better myself. Happy Holidays.

Quoting 619. Dakster:



I wish I could say something to make it better. But I can't. My Dad went thru stage 4 cancer and knock on wood over 10 years later he is still here with us. My wife had horrible pregnancies that were very difficult, but the result is that we have two wonderful kids and neither one of us would do it differently. We persevered through it. You may not believe this and I don't force mine on other people. However, I believe that things happen for a reason and it is often not until years later that we understand that reason. It doesn't make it any easier when you are going through it though.
Thanks for reminding me.. A late track model came out on that storm. I sent it on to Murko.


{{{DeepSeaRising}}}


Merry Christmas Everyone..


(Not 95B)

India Meteorological Department
Meteorologists Analysis as of 9:00 AM UTC
=======================
Another trough of low at mean sea level over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal
persists. It may develop into a low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal around 27th.


Thailand Meteorological Department
Quoting 651. HadesGodWyvern:

Merry Christmas to every member of the Weather Underground community =)
Thanks Hades..That system in the Bay of Bengal looks serious...I hope it does not get to strong.
A handful of flakes on the ground, and a cold and frosty morning.

Canadian bacon is cooking for the household breakfast.

We did gifties on Solstice, as the kiddos' mom, an RN, works today. They are near the end of their influenza restriction period, the outbreak in Fallon was noticeable.

My household family has promised me Mu Shu Pork for dinner. :) Don't have the religious thing going, but hey, Tradition.



To my Christian friends, Merry Christmas!
Definitely warm for xmas here! Oh well the beer and cold mimosas will cool us off! haha Cheers!
Merry Christmas to all. I hope you enjoy the day. Here in Nassau it's already 81 degrees and absolutely gorgeous outside .... here's hoping I get to snap a few pics in between all the festivities ...
Merry Christmas to ALL........

Have the Models backed off on bringing the cold air in to the East and south again for the period around the 1st? I noticed at one time WU was forecasting highs in the 30's here in NW Georgia and snow and now in the mid 50'S?
Merry Christmas to everyone in the wunderground community! :) I know Hades already said this but I'm giving my own wishes and I would have said just about the same thing ;)

Merry Christmas!
Quoting 650. Chicklit:


I see no one has yet answered your inquiry. WuMail Barbamz (or maybe she'll see this post).
She is in Germany and very good about keeping track of European and World weather news.


Thank you Chicklit :)
After all that rain, the drying period has come, the CWG says that it will be a 3 day-engagement meaning only 3 days of sun before more rain Sunday.
Hope everyone is having a safe Merry Christmas !!

Careful if one is traveling these holidays ..
HA! I am not falling for your tricks GEM.
Quoting 666. Climate175:

HA! I am not falling for your tricks GEM.
Quoting 614. DeepSeaRising:

Merry Christmas. May we celebrate Christ. Found out a week ago my Dad is diagnosed with stage four cancer. Just found out tonight my fiance, on vacation misscarriaged. I am crushed beyond any wordly definition. I give pause to give thanks to the blessings I have. I give pause to those who have suffered so much more. While we all have reasons to be in pain, given the time to truly reflect, we have so much more to be thankful for. While I write this in tears and great pain, I am thankful for what I have, and the life I've been given the grace to live. A thankful Christmas to all and may next year be even better. I am crushed but not defeated.


Stay strong brother
The GFS is being a Grinch with the snow forecast for the East Coast.

Knowing the GFS's track record lately, I'd be prepared for a major snowstorm.

Quoting 620. matara28:

Hi there everybody and Merry Christmas! i wish, if there are some meteorologists here, to confirm me that Monday Romania (S-E Europe), will be hit by a very strong low, with the center just over S-E Romania and usual this means very severe weather with gusts reaching 90 km/h and heavy snow. I know that a few of you have access to some weather models inaccessible to us. Thank you.

That may start effecting Romania on late Sunday as a 992mb low coming from the SW, after it snows on Italy & Albania on Saturday & Sunday. GEOS-5 trains some heavy precipitation on that area in Romania that is colored purple below. It's also mostly with in the blue frozen lines so yes.. expect maybe some heavy snow.



The low is expected to form from a combination of a piece of energy currently breaking off the upper right side of this low (below) in the Central Atlantic & a low that has yet to form off of SE Greenland.

Areas to the south of the Tampa to Orlando line missed out on the heavy rain.
It was hit or miss, but most areas saw less than an inch. Some areas saw almost no rain.

Merry Christmas fellow WUers...
Quoting 614. DeepSeaRising:

Merry Christmas. May we celebrate Christ. Found out a week ago my Dad is diagnosed with stage four cancer. Just found out tonight my fiance, on vacation misscarriaged. I am crushed beyond any wordly definition. I give pause to give thanks to the blessings I have. I give pause to those who have suffered so much more. While we all have reasons to be in pain, given the time to truly reflect, we have so much more to be thankful for. While I write this in tears and great pain, I am thankful for what I have, and the life I've been given the grace to live. A thankful Christmas to all and may next year be even better. I am crushed but not defeated.

Merry Christmas DSR..I do not discuss religion on the blog. I want to tell you that you are not alone. I have gone through several tragic events the past ten years , and have a critically ill Mom to take care of.... These things can appear unbearable. Hurt , that cannot be described or even measured. When things seem beyond help or hope is when God holds us in his grace...God is continually stretching and shaping our faith so that we will be able to endure any circumstance. This is the truth. Sometimes I forget that when He was crucified , He literally forgave every sin that has ever occurred without question. One can lay there problems at the Son of Gods feet , Goodness , Mercy , Forgiveness ,and Strength will given to you. Not only is it given , you will live it, feel it , breath it...Miracles are real.




The ENSO still continues its struggles to stay above the El Nino threshold. The latest cooling of the eastern regions of the ENSO gives off a signal that it is going to be very hard, with the current atmospheric pattern, to sustain anything stronger than a weak El Nino event. We've probably been in an El Nino phase for about a month now, its just a "wait and see" situation for most agencies as they don't want to declare something that may not be there in three months. Currently, It appears with the well below average ring of ocean waters off of western South America that this El Nino is going to be short-lived and could give way to another neutral or even cool neutral event by the Spring, but we'll just have to wait and see what 2015 has to offer.

There was some frost on my grass this morning! Temperatures still remain in the 40's.
Merry Christmas!
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 9:56 AM PST on December 25, 2014
Partly Cloudy
56.0 °F / 13.3 °C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 29%
Dew Point: 24 °F / -4 °C
Wind: 26.0 mph / 41.8 km/h / 11.6 m/s from the North
Wind Gust: 36.0 mph / 57.9 km/h / 10.8 m/s
Pressure: 29.83 in / 1010 hPa (Steady)
already made the forecast for today (56), low was 53.8
Quoting 627. pottery:

MERRY CHRISTMAS

it's eighty degrees, the humidity is seventy, and all's well.

Have a Blast today
Happy Holidays Pott....:)
Merry Christmas to all the WU community. TS,I didn't saw your post but we are at the same thinking.

I said a few days ago about El Nino cancel and some mentioned is was only one dot but a few more of those are appearing and now Nino 3.4 is on the verge of falling below 0.5C. Also Nino 1 2 falls to La Nina threshold. Are we not going to have El Nino at all?







Merry Christmas to everyone!! :) I Hope Santa Treated everyone well. ;)
Quoting 666. Climate175:

HA! I am not falling for your tricks GEM.


Quoting 645. washingtonian115:

For Christmas nature has decided to give us sunshine after what seemed like eons without it.The natural dry out session is in process with winds and the sun both working together to dry things out after two days of rain.

Shew. it was a rough one yesterday. Almost got into two accidents due to people not be cautious in the thick fog. I could barely see the car in front of me. Thank goodness thats over.
Quoting 677. Tropicsweatherpr:

Merry Christmas to all the WU community. TS,I didn't saw your post but we are at the same thinking.

I said a few days ago about El Nino cancel and some mentioned is was only one dot but a few more of those are appearing and now Nino 3.4 is on the verge of falling below 0.5C. Also Nino 1 2 falls to La Nina threshold. Are we not going to have El Nino at all?









Don't get me wrong, December will still average out above the +0.5C threshold but if this cooling trend continues this El Nino may never get off the ground.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Merry Christmas to all the WU community. TS,I didn't saw your post but we are at the same thinking.

I said a few days ago about El Nino cancel and some mentioned is was only one dot but a few more of those are appearing and now Nino 3.4 is on the verge of falling below 0.5C. Also Nino 1 2 falls to La Nina threshold. Are we not going to have El Nino at all?









IMO, probably not no. I'd give it a 30% chance of a weak El Nino. Looks like another ENSO-neutral year for 2015. What's odd is to see two El Nino events basically rejected even though the atmosphere was certainly behaving like an El Nino.
Quoting 681. TylerStanfield:


Don't get me wrong, December will still average out above the +0.5C threshold but if this cooling trend continues this El Nino may never get off the ground.
Quoting 682. CybrTeddy:



IMO, probably not no. I'd give it a 30% chance of a weak El Nino. Looks like another ENSO-neutral year for 2015. What's odd is to see two El Nino events basically rejected even though the atmosphere was certainly behaving like an El Nino.

SO FRUSTRATING.

We are much closer to an El Nino than we were in 2012. One thing CSU did note in their discussion was that AMO had rebounded to positive territory, which could make 2015 interesting if an El Nino doesn't end up developing.
Quoting 682. CybrTeddy:



IMO, probably not no. I'd give it a 30% chance of a weak El Nino. Looks like another ENSO-neutral year for 2015. What's odd is to see two El Nino events basically rejected even though the atmosphere was certainly behaving like an El Nino.


Could have implications to the North Atlantic Hurricane season on the more active side if that pans out.
Quoting 680. Doppler22:


Shew. it was a rough one yesterday. Almost got into two accidents due to people not be cautious in the thick fog. I could barely see the car in front of me. Thank goodness thats over.
More is expected Sunday.
very cold air coming into the U.S. next week..Latest Euro now, and @ 168 hours..



Quoting 670. Skyepony:


That may start effecting Romania on late Sunday as a 992mb low coming from the SW, after it snows on Italy & Albania on Saturday & Sunday. GEOS-5 trains some heavy precipitation on that area in Romania that is colored purple below. It's also mostly with in the blue frozen lines so yes.. expect maybe some heavy snow.



The low is expected to form from a combination of a piece of energy currently breaking off the upper right side of this low (below) in the Central Atlantic & a low that has yet to form off of SE Greenland.




Thank you very much Skyponey. Now i have no doubt.
Have a nice Christmas everyone and warmth in your hearts. :)
Quoting 680. Doppler22:


Shew. it was a rough one yesterday. Almost got into two accidents due to people not be cautious in the thick fog. I could barely see the car in front of me. Thank goodness thats over.
I know what you mean !.These people were awful yesterday on the road.I picked up some things from the grocery store for a few snacks for today and even in the parking lot accidents were sill occuring.
Merry Christmas next off is new years
Quoting 687. hydrus:

very cold air coming into the U.S. next week..Latest Euro now, and @ 168 hours..





Ummm....check the time stamp on your top chart
Some of my family are getting or going to get snow showers today. Boy, Florida is soooo boring.

Don't get me wrong, I like Florida for other reasons. But especially since I've lived here for 10+ years of my 21 year life, I have a desire to move somewhere north after I graduate.
Quoting 693. ACSeattle:


Ummm....check the time stamp on your top chart
Yep..A mistake , but the run is good..Check the stamp at 168.. Here is the 24 hour for good measure..

That being said his new data shows some interesting developments for winter weather lovers. The same MJO model projections are now showing the MJO not only holding in intensity or increasing but moving into Phase 7 or 8 by late January and phase 8 in February.
These are some darn good winter weather patterns for the central and eastern portions of the country.!!


Now it's wait until mid January XD.Then it'll be wait until mid February then it'll be "the winter that comes with a vengeance in March".Lol.
Quoting 614. DeepSeaRising:

Merry Christmas. May we celebrate Christ. Found out a week ago my Dad is diagnosed with stage four cancer. Just found out tonight my fiance, on vacation misscarriaged. I am crushed beyond any wordly definition. I give pause to give thanks to the blessings I have. I give pause to those who have suffered so much more. While we all have reasons to be in pain, given the time to truly reflect, we have so much more to be thankful for. While I write this in tears and great pain, I am thankful for what I have, and the life I've been given the grace to live. A thankful Christmas to all and may next year be even better. I am crushed but not defeated.




Sorry to hear it, hang in there man, I know this isn't a religious discussion blog, but I have been through similar things, and through it all God is my source and strength in my life, Merry Christmas and God bless, even if it doesn't feel very merry, sometimes the hardest experiences in life can become our greatest strengths once they pass. I think a necessary aspect to bring humans to understand good is struggle and suffering, as much as I wish it weren't true.

The people whom I would say are the most humble, kind and giving people are those who struggle most, so hang in there and keep fighting.
Quoting 696. washingtonian115:

That being said his new data shows some interesting developments for winter weather lovers. The same MJO model projections are now showing the MJO not only holding in intensity or increasing but moving into Phase 7 or 8 by late January and phase 8 in February.
These are some darn good winter weather patterns for the central and eastern portions of the country.!!


Now it's wait until mid January XD.Then it'll be wait until mid February then it'll be "the winter that comes with a vengeance in March".Lol.
Dont friggen forget April...it snows in April...like in Northern Montana and stuff...
Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all!!

Keep on weather geeking! ;)
Quoting 698. hydrus:

Dont friggen forget April...it snows in April...like in Northern Montana and stuff...
It did snow until April last year but that has become a rarity in this region.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Could have implications to the North Atlantic Hurricane season on the more active side if that pans out.


Think so? 2013 was coming off a failed El Nino year like 2012. Not saying there's any implications, but still..
22F and snowing like a banshee here in Alaska... Kids are having a blast as this is their first white christmas.
Tell me about it. I didn't even leave the house and had an accident. Had to change my pants.

Merry Christmas!

Quoting 690. washingtonian115:

I know what you mean !.These people were awful yesterday on the road.I picked up some things from the grocery store for a few snacks for today and even in the parking lot accidents were sill occuring.
Christmas Greetings all,
Coldest December morning yet in my part of SE LA, a mere 38F at home, 33F at Houma airport, and a White Christmas of sorts - had frost, lol. With few days remaining / warm-up ahead, may be only one in December after 6 frosts / 3 freezes in November, (mid-up 20's here on Nov 19th).

Whatever rain deficit had was quenched with Tuesday's downpours (and hail, winds to 40 mph), but…
Mild and wet looks to quickly return for the Gulf / SE regions with SW flow aloft stuck in place and big fat South American / Caribbean upper ridge (as seen on 200 mb analysis, GFS N American and esp West North Atlantic region) and it's 500mb and low level ridge components. In example, click 200 mb, then 500 mb and 850 mb Vort-Hgt anytime thru next 120 hrs. Hope we can avoid any further severe wx, often results as jet stream bumps against conditions set-up by warm tropical ridging - a factor the Gulf coast region is a climatologically-favored threat area now. Appears until we see more significant Hudson Bay low development, that ridge is typically a tough puppy to budge, flatten or shift. At least the overall outlook remains encouraging (for cold-wx lovers!) it will in January.

Oh, and on this date 25 years ago - it truly was a rare White Christmas in da SE LA swamp!



Cheers!
Quoting washingtonian115:
That being said his new data shows some interesting developments for winter weather lovers. The same MJO model projections are now showing the MJO not only holding in intensity or increasing but moving into Phase 7 or 8 by late January and phase 8 in February.
These are some darn good winter weather patterns for the central and eastern portions of the country.!!


Now it's wait until mid January XD.Then it'll be wait until mid February then it'll be "the winter that comes with a vengeance in March".Lol.


My older sister was born on March 28th and it snowed either the day before or on the day of her birthday. My parents always tell people the story about it.
She and I were both born in Washington DC.
Merry Christmas! I got a new weather station! Winter Storm Elliott brought us 3 1/2 inches of snow on Dec. 23! (Name from my local naming list.) Potential Winter Storm Fay will hit tonight and tommorow. Have a Merry Christmas everyone!!!
Quoting opal92nwf:
Some of my family are getting or going to get snow showers today. Boy, Florida is soooo boring.

Don't get me wrong, I like Florida for other reasons. But especially since I've lived here for 10 years of my 21 year life, I have a desire to move somewhere north after I graduate.



Beautiful day here. It's 74 degrees with bright sunshine here in Fort Myers.
People are outside all over the neighborhood playing or just walking around.
Perfect day for the kids to play with their new toys (bikes, skateboards, etc).

No sleds or ice skates.lol
Quoting 703. HaoleboySurfEC:

Tell me about it. I didn't even leave the house and had an accident. Had to change my pants.

Merry Christmas!


Merry Christmas HBSEC.I'm just glad the sun has returned.It did start off dark this morning but by 9:00 the sun was making it's appearance "A Christmas miracle" is what I said.It'll be short lived however.
Quoting 702. Dakster:

22F and snowing like a banshee here in Alaska... Kids are having a blast as this is their first white christmas.
I'm sure they couldn't decide the option on what to do first.Head out to see the snow or open presents.But it was probably presents.
709. MahFL
From the 4 day rain event we got 2.36 in. of rain, here in Orange Park.
I hope everyone here has had a very Merry, joy-filled Christmas!
Quoting 701. CybrTeddy:



Think so? 2013 was coming off a failed El Nino year like 2012. Not saying there's any implications, but still..

The Atlantic Tripole reversed, and it was coming off of three year stretch of La Nina events in which no heat had been focused back in the tropics with the absence of any El Nino in between. I'd say conditions warrant something a little different than what we saw in 2013. But no one will know what 2015 has to offer until we get into Spring.
2013 will be a hurricane season that will be studied for years to come as to really figure out what makes a season produce such activity in which dynamics other than just ENSO make up how we figure out the potential activity a season could bring.
2013 and 2005 are two extremes of the spectrum of activity in the Atlantic basin but only had minor alterations in climate conditions. This is why we still have a lot to learn if we really want to have more accurate forecasts in future years.
Quoting 708. washingtonian115:

Merry Christmas HBSEC.I'm just glad the sun has returned.It did start off dark this morning but by 9:00 the sun was making it's appearance "A Christmas miracle" is what I said.It'll be short lived however. I'm sure they couldn't decide the option on what to do first.Head out to see the snow or open presents.But it was probably presents.


yeah. presents... It isn't like there hasn't been snow on the ground for a month. It just doesn't (thankfully) snow everyday.
Who thinks neutral/LA Nina conditions will for next year's Atlantic hurricane season and what are your predictions/thoughts?
Quoting 713. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Who thinks neutral/LA Nina conditions will for next year's Atlantic hurricane season and what are your predictions/thoughts?

Too early to know any of that. If you're really interested in reading some of the possible scenarios for next season, Colorado State University released a discussion about the upcoming hurricane season two weeks ago.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Please kick it out of the SE too

Merry Christmas Wunderkid and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Too early to know any of that. If you're really interested in reading some of the possible scenarios for next season, Colorado State University released a discussion about the upcoming hurricane season two weeks ago.

Merry Christmas Tyler and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.
Quoting 716. Andrebrooks:


Merry Christmas Tyler and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.

Nothing to apologize for. You're just sharing your amusement and interest in weather like the rest of us.
Quoting MahFL:
From the 4 day rain event we got 2.36 in. of rain, here in Orange Park.


We managed a dismal .01"
All I can do is laugh about it.
Some areas outside of town did pick up a tenth or two though (very hit or miss)

29 days with only .05" of rain and no rain in the forecast for the next 5-7 days.
Turned into a beautiful day here after the deluge. 60F bright sunshine. Even the winds diminished.

Quoting 708. washingtonian115:

Merry Christmas HBSEC.I'm just glad the sun has returned.It did start off dark this morning but by 9:00 the sun was making it's appearance "A Christmas miracle" is what I said.It'll be short lived however. I'm sure they couldn't decide the option on what to do first.Head out to see the snow or open presents.But it was probably presents.
Tropical Cyclone Kate strengthen a little as it moves away from Cocos Island

India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin (23:30 PM IST/18:00 PM UTC)
=============================
Vortex over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka. Low Pressure Area is located at 5.5N 82.5E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

------------------------------------------------- -----------

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY ONE (04U)
2:58 AM WST December 26 2014
=====================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category One (990 hPa) located at 12.4S 95.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
25 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 12.8S 95.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 13.3S 94.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 14.4S 93.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 15.7S 93.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================.
Kate has passed by Cocos Islands where gales were recorded between 0545 and 0730UTC. Recent Ascat A and B passes indicate a small region of gale force winds and maximum winds 40-45 knots southwest of the center. Microwave and infrared show strong convection west of the center consistent with ongoing moderate northeast wind shear influences. Dvorak analysis: DT in range of 2.5-3.0 based on curved banding 0.4-0.5 and shear pattern under overcast or Tb gradient. MET=3.5 based on D- over 24h but PAT=3.0. FT/CI=3.0, consistent with ADT. SATCON objective intensity analysis is 48 knots. Intensity of 45 knots biased towards scatterometry but consistent with all other inputs.

The moderate northeast shear is expected to continue in the short term but may relax sufficiently for some further intensification to occur on Saturday 27th before increasing upper level westerlies on Sunday 28th and then lower ocean heat content weaken the system. A strong ridge to the south is likely to persist gales in southern quadrants after it weakens below cyclone intensity. Steering may shift a little more to south southwest if the system intensifies during Saturday 27th and then more to the southwest or even west southwest in the longer term when the low level circulation becomes sheared.
Quoting 711. TylerStanfield:


The Atlantic Tripole reversed, and it was coming off of three year stretch of La Nina events in which no heat had been focused back in the tropics with the absence of any El Nino in between. I'd say conditions warrant something a little different than what we saw in 2013. But no one will know what 2015 has to offer until we get into Spring.
2013 will be a hurricane season that will be studied for years to come as to really figure out what makes a season produce such activity in which dynamics other than just ENSO make up how we figure out the potential activity a season could bring.
2013 and 2005 are two extremes of the spectrum of activity in the Atlantic basic but only had minor alterations in climate conditions. This is why we still have a lot to learn if we really want to have more accurate forecasts in future years.
I still do not understand how 2005 was so extreme.Sure it had hot sst but as we've seen over the years those mean absolutely NOTHING if other factors are not at play.
722. flsky
Glass rooftops.
Link
Happy XMAS guys
724. flsky
Spherical glass solar energy.
Link
Quoting 721. washingtonian115:

I still do not understand how 2005 was so extreme.Sure it had hot sst but as we've seen over the years those mean absolutely NOTHING if other factors are not at play.

A stronger than average African Easterly Jet contributing to potent tropical waves; record warm (at the time) sea surface temperatures; well below average wind shear (3rd lowest in the deep tropics for the June-October period going back to 1971); enhanced upper-level divergence attributed to the warm Atlantic waters; lower than average sea level pressures associated with a weaker subtropical ridge; ridging over the East Coast acting to lower wind shear across the West Atlantic (and cause many storms to strike the Gulf Coast).

Link

Don't get me wrong, 2005 was an incredible and anomalous season. However, many people tend to believe we've never seen a season like it and won't ever see a season like it again.

1887



1933



Both of those seasons were prior to the advent of satellite and other technologies that are used today.
Wrong Post

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY. A MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN EXTENDED
THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND
. THE THREAT WILL
END WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY.

(snipped out list of towns and cities)

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE AND WEST FELICIANA.
IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AMITE...HANCOCK... HARRISON...
JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL AND WILKINSON.

* FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL THAT CAN
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD
AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER BANDS OF RAIN
POSSIBLY BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES
SOMEWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.


* DUE TO RECENT RAINS...SOME RIVERS MAY SWELL TO FLOOD STAGE IF
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCUR. ALSO...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS MAY RESULT IF RAINS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.
Ugh...

Quoting 715. Andrebrooks:


Merry Christmas Wunderkid and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.
Merry Christmas Andre....You,ve been here a year and 8 months....Dont take responsibility for what doesnt exist..:)
The weather is going to be nice for a few days take advantage of it.
Quoting 728. LAbonbon:

Ugh...


Greeting Bonbon..Inflatable dinghy,s are cheap and easy to store..:) ...Some even come with lightweight engines.
I've never seen the entire US west coast in a special weather statement like this one before. Merry Christmas, y'all WU !
Interesting, but expected..

Quoting 732. AstroHurricane001:

I've never seen the entire US west coast in a special weather statement like this one before. Merry Christmas, y'all WU !
Happy Holidays Astro...What does the SPS consist of.?
Merry Christmas everyone! Whilst it wasn't a white one, tomorrow certainly looks interesting with what is looking like the first widespread accumulating snowfall across the UK with 2-4cm expected in some low lying areas and up to 10cm in some places (of higher elevation):

Link

There's quite a bit of uncertainty though and I hope that I'll see some snow (even if it is just a quick flurry).
Christmas day sun going down on Fort Myers Beach
The red stars in the image below represent the locations of all the tornado-related fatalities across the United States during 2014. At this time, the tally stands at 46:

- 1 death in North Carolina on April 25
- 2 deaths in Iowa on April 27
- 1 death in Oklahoma on April 27
- 16 deaths in Arkansas on April 27
- 12 deaths in Mississippi on April 28
- 2 deaths in Alabama on April 28
- 2 deaths in Tennessee on April 28
- 2 deaths in Nebraska on June 16
- 4 deaths in New York on July 8
- 4 deaths in Mississippi on December 23



I'm in a rush this afternoon, so I don't have time to customize the stars based on date or tornado intensity, but that's something I'll do before I make the final map next week.
Quoting 731. hydrus:

Greeting Bonbon..Inflatable dinghy,s are cheap and easy to store..:) ...Some even come with lightweight engines.


Merry Christmas, hydrus - hopefully I'll be in a 2-4" area, and not one of the 6-8" bands the NWS mentioned in their flood watch. If that happens, the dinghy might not be a bad idea :o

Too bad it couldn't be wished over to our parched brethren in S. FL
739. DDR
Nice trough east of the windward islands/south america,more above average rainfall for me :p
Quoting Andrebrooks:

Merry Christmas Wunderkid and sorry for being annoying and being a disturbance over the last few years. Can you forgive me.


Happy Christmas to you mate and yeah I forgive you

You deserve my respects and forgiveness unlike some on here

Hope you have a good fun and exciting 2015
Quoting 739. DDR:

Nice trough east of the windward islands/south america,more above average rainfall for me :p

Hope you had a Good Day today !
I did. Belly is full, Heart is full, all is well.

Burp. Yawn. Hic......
Quoting 743. washingtonian115:


Reproted..hiccup...
Quoting 744. hydrus:

Reproted..hiccup...

LOLOL
Cheers, Hydrus.
Quoting 741. pottery:


Hope you had a Good Day today !
I did. Belly is full, Heart is full, all is well.

Burp. Yawn. Hic......


I did thanks. ANd the same thing here....

Watching the interview. As I expected it sucks... Only reason to watch it is because of the controversy surrounding it.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
358 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014

Short term...
after a nice Christmas day we can expect a pleasant evening and
overnight. High pressure centered over the area will quickly shift
to the east ahead of a developing storm system over the Central
Plains. This system will continue to dive southward over the next
few days. Still expecting a fairly quiet day for tomorrow and
return flow should set up late Friday afternoon and evening. This
will increase the moisture across the region. With that rain
chances will increase later on Friday with only a few showers
possible late on Friday before the aforementioned system impacts
the area on Saturday.

Long term...
the big weather maker for this weekend will be a system moving
into the area on Saturday. Out ahead of this system we will have
increasing moisture as a persistent southeasterly flow off the
Gulf primes the area for some heavy rainfall. As the high off to
the east and the deepening low and front approaching the
area...this will set up a persistent southwest flow across the
area Saturday and Sunday with continuous broad scale lift over the
area should set up a pretty long duration rain event for the deep
south. Diving into some of the numbers of the situation...there
will be enough instability on Saturday for the Storm Prediction
Center to highlight a marginal risk for severe weather on
Saturday. It looks like strong winds would be the main
threat...there is a small window of increased helicity over the
area midday Saturday but as that southwest flow kicks in the
helicity quickly diminishes. Will have to watch for a few strong to
severe storms on Saturday...but the main threat this weekend will
be heavy rainfall with some possible flooding issues.

Deep layer moisture...with precipitable water values in the 1.7 to
near 2.0 inch range are very impressive for this time of year. In
fact this is in between the 99th percentile and the observed maximum
for this time of year...this is red flag in terms of flood
potential. These types of values are near 200 percent of normal
for this time of year
. Also looking at some of the historical
analogs for this type of event...it is pointing at heavy rainfall
potential across portions of the deep south. Both of these points
coupled with the depth of the warm cloud layers...unidirectional
hodographs...broad scale lift...and the possibility of training
showers and thunderstorms have caused US to issue a Flood Watch
for the entire forecast area starting late Friday night and
lasting through Sunday evening. The weather prediction center
formally the hydrological prediction center has highlighted
portions of our area for a slight risk of flooding on Saturday in
their excessive rainfall outlook. This is similar to the Storm
Prediction Center severe weather outlook. So multiple sources and
indicators point to some potential for a pretty significant
rainfall event for the deep south. With all of that being
said...we expect rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with some
locally higher amounts of 6 inches plus over the area through
Sunday night
. Expect the higher amount to occur where
thunderstorms train and local convergence zones where heavy rain
will persist. Please stay tuned to our forecasts and various pages
for updates as the event draws near.

The front will take its time moving out of the area. Guidance is trending
drier for Monday and Tuesday. Will hold slight probability of precipitation for Monday but
will remove rain chances on Tuesday. Another southwestern trough
will approach toward the end of next week...but some divergence in
solutions...and will continue previous forecast with a blend for
the extended forecast. 13/mh
748. yoboi
Quoting 747. LAbonbon:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
358 PM CST Thursday Dec 25 2014

Short term...
after a nice Christmas day we can expect a pleasant evening and
overnight. High pressure centered over the area will quickly shift
to the east ahead of a developing storm system over the Central
Plains. This system will continue to dive southward over the next
few days. Still expecting a fairly quiet day for tomorrow and
return flow should set up late Friday afternoon and evening. This
will increase the moisture across the region. With that rain
chances will increase later on Friday with only a few showers
possible late on Friday before the aforementioned system impacts
the area on Saturday.

Long term...
the big weather maker for this weekend will be a system moving
into the area on Saturday. Out ahead of this system we will have
increasing moisture as a persistent southeasterly flow off the
Gulf primes the area for some heavy rainfall. As the high off to
the east and the deepening low and front approaching the
area...this will set up a persistent southwest flow across the
area Saturday and Sunday with continuous broad scale lift over the
area should set up a pretty long duration rain event for the deep
south. Diving into some of the numbers of the situation...there
will be enough instability on Saturday for the Storm Prediction
Center to highlight a marginal risk for severe weather on
Saturday. It looks like strong winds would be the main
threat...there is a small window of increased helicity over the
area midday Saturday but as that southwest flow kicks in the
helicity quickly diminishes. Will have to watch for a few strong to
severe storms on Saturday...but the main threat this weekend will
be heavy rainfall with some possible flooding issues.

Deep layer moisture...with precipitable water values in the 1.7 to
near 2.0 inch range are very impressive for this time of year. In
fact this is in between the 99th percentile and the observed maximum
for this time of year...this is red flag in terms of flood
potential. These types of values are near 200 percent of normal
for this time of year
. Also looking at some of the historical
analogs for this type of event...it is pointing at heavy rainfall
potential across portions of the deep south. Both of these points
coupled with the depth of the warm cloud layers...unidirectional
hodographs...broad scale lift...and the possibility of training
showers and thunderstorms have caused US to issue a Flood Watch
for the entire forecast area starting late Friday night and
lasting through Sunday evening. The weather prediction center
formally the hydrological prediction center has highlighted
portions of our area for a slight risk of flooding on Saturday in
their excessive rainfall outlook. This is similar to the Storm
Prediction Center severe weather outlook. So multiple sources and
indicators point to some potential for a pretty significant
rainfall event for the deep south. With all of that being
said...we expect rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with some
locally higher amounts of 6 inches plus over the area through
Sunday night
. Expect the higher amount to occur where
thunderstorms train and local convergence zones where heavy rain
will persist. Please stay tuned to our forecasts and various pages
for updates as the event draws near.

The front will take its time moving out of the area. Guidance is trending
drier for Monday and Tuesday. Will hold slight probability of precipitation for Monday but
will remove rain chances on Tuesday. Another southwestern trough
will approach toward the end of next week...but some divergence in
solutions...and will continue previous forecast with a blend for
the extended forecast. 13/mh



Probably will end up with a 60 % chance of rain.....
Quoting 748. yoboi:




Probably will end up with a 60 % chance of rain.....


Hope you had a nice holiday, yoboi.

I hope it doesn't happen, but it's not looking that way. Not too fond of getting a deluge. How about you, though? Is it good or bad for your pond(s)?
750. yoboi
Quoting 749. LAbonbon:



Hope you had a nice holiday, yoboi.

I hope it doesn't happen, but it's not looking that way. Not too fond of getting a deluge. How about you, though? Is it good or bad for your pond(s)?


If I get that much some levee will bust...Looking at the setup it's not looking good....But I just go with the flow all I can really do.. Tuesday really caught me by surprise....Hope your day was good also...
Hey guys im going to Lebanon PA from December 26th to January 5th. We want to get some snow, and if we can a decent snow if possible. How is the forecast looking for that time period? Thanks in advanced guys
Quoting 751. tampahurricane:

Hey guys im going to Lebanon PA from December 26th to January 5th. We want to get some snow, and if we can a decent snow if possible. How is the forecast looking for that time period? Thanks in advanced guys


Not good for snow... But it should be cold enough, just no precip. forecast.

However - the forecast is wrong often for my area.
Quoting 751. tampahurricane:

Hey guys im going to Lebanon PA from December 26th to January 5th. We want to get some snow, and if we can a decent snow if possible. How is the forecast looking for that time period? Thanks in advanced guys


Latest GFS says not very good..My opinion is that will change considerably the next few days.
Quoting tampahurricane:
Hey guys im going to Lebanon PA from December 26th to January 5th. We want to get some snow, and if we can a decent snow if possible. How is the forecast looking for that time period? Thanks in advanced guys
That's a long way out. There's not much on the horizon now to indicate a cooling trend but at least a climatology should be on your side in terms of at least some snow flurries. There looks like a chance of snow flurries this weekend but not much more than that. Just keep checking back as you get within five days of each date.
Quoting 750. yoboi:



If I get that much some levee will bust...Looking at the setup it's not looking good....But I just go with the flow all I can really do.. Tuesday really caught me by surprise....Hope your day was good also...


Amen to that sentiment.

Today was good. No traveling, just a nice laid back day. Had a minor problem of a non-thawed bird that had been in the fridge for a couple of days, so it set dinner back a while. You'd think I would learn after doing the exact same thing last year :/
Now this no snow forecast how set in stone is this. or is there a lot of uncertainty? we are wishing as hard as we can for some snow would pretty much ruin the tip with none.
Quoting Dakster:


Not good for snow... But it should be cold enough, just no precip. forecast.

However - the forecast is wrong often for my area.
Hey, Dak, hope you had a nice Christmas. At least it starts to get a little more light each day now. Beautiful day down here. Blue sky, low humidity, and a high of 63. Getting a little nippy already, down to 39. Low was supposed to be 36, so I think we'll easily better that forecast.
Quoting 756. tampahurricane:

Now this no snow forecast how set in stone is this. or is there a lot of uncertainty? we are wishing as hard as we can for some snow would pretty much ruin the tip with none.


weather forecasts and set in stone are mutually exclusive terms... like I said they are frequently wrong for me in AK...
Quoting tampahurricane:
Now this no snow forecast how set in stone is this. or is there a lot of uncertainty? we are wishing as hard as we can for some snow would pretty much ruin the tip with none.
This weekend looks like you might have a chance. After that, nothing is set in stone, whether it's snow or now snow. :-)
Quoting 757. sar2401:

Hey, Dak, hope you had a nice Christmas. At least it starts to get a little more light each day now. Beautiful day down here. Blue sky, low humidity, and a high of 63. Getting a little nippy already, down to 39. Low was supposed to be 36, so I think we'll easily better that forecast.


Hope yours was good too. in the low 30s and the snow is sticking around....
Quoting 759. sar2401:

This weekend looks like you might have a chance. After that, nothing is set in stone, whether it's snow or now snow. :-)


I don't know, just looked at WU through the 3rd, and Accuweather's extended forecast. From WU, chance on the 3rd, but not much (< 1"), but high temps are above freezing for most of his trip, and looking to stay that way until his trip is over. Of course, that can always change....
Quoting LAbonbon:


Hope you had a nice holiday, yoboi.

I hope it doesn't happen, but it's not looking that way. Not too fond of getting a deluge. How about you, though? Is it good or bad for your pond(s)?
New Orleans sure seems to be hopped up on your rain forecast for the weekend. The Boys in Birmingham aren't anywhere near as excited. This one must be going to track a lot more from the western Gulf and then NE instead of having the front drag along the Gulf like we had with the last front. If we get more than an inch, it should be in NW AL, closer to the warm front headed north. How much did you get total from the two days at your place? I got 3.96", the most we've gotten since April. I'd take even a couple more inches since our soil is still not saturated but I guess things are a little more mushy in your neck of the woods.
763. yoboi
Quoting 755. LAbonbon:



Amen to that sentiment.

Today was good. No traveling, just a nice laid back day. Had a minor problem of a non-thawed bird that had been in the fridge for a couple of days, so it set dinner back a while. You'd think I would learn after doing the exact same thing last year :/


DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST BROUGHT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE AS CLOUDS
DRIFTED OVER. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE DEW POINTS CONTINUE A SLOW RISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND... TEMPS ALONG THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S. THIS WILL BE ABOUT A
TEN DEGREE JUMP FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THIS MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH LOWER 60S EXPECTED WELL INLAND FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WITH THE RAINS AND CLOUDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER 60S. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO POOL OVER THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FINALLY GETS THE FRONT
MOVING AGAIN. LOOKING TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINS DOWN ALONG THE
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH UPWARDS TO THREE TO FOUR INCHES
POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WITH SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MID 60S DOWN ALONG THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST.

ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting Dakster:


Hope yours was good too. in the low 30s and the snow is sticking around....
Had a fun afternoon with the whole family, ranging from 6 years old up to 80. It's always a lot more enjoyable for Christmas with a few smaller kids around. Got a handheld anemometer for one of my presents so I spent about a half-hour standing around the yard trying to catch a breeze. One of the little ones wanted to know if it was a drone helicopter. :-) You sure have been lucky with just enough cold and just enough snow so far.
Boring season is here!
Well, the switch to cool weather on my 10 day forecast went poof... Now it shows mid 60's at the end. Blehhhhhh, not even a semblance of some winter chill.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY TWO (04U)
9:05 AM WST December 26 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Two (987 hPa) located at 12.2S 95.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center in northern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 12.7S 94.4E- 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 13.2S 93.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 14.2S 93.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 15.5S 92.0EE - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
==================
Kate was located using microwave imagery, particularly the AMSR2 at 1900 UTC and SSMI at 2041 UTC which also showed that Kate had intensified with deep convection wrapping about half way around the center in the western semi circle.

Dvorak: Shear pattern on EIR gave DTs of 3.5. MET was 3.5 using a D- trend with PAT 3.5. FT/CI set to 3.5 with intensity 50 knots [10 minute averaged winds]. SATCON intensity at 251911 UTC was 50 knots and 61 knots at 252234 UTC. ADT had CI between 3.2 and 3.3.

Shear over the system has decreased overnight, allowing for intensification into a category 2 cyclone [storm force winds]. CIMSS shear at 18 UTC was about NE 13 knots.

Kate should increase a little further, and may yet reach category 3 intensity [hurricane force winds], before increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures cause the system to weaken.

The system has tracked towards the west northwest over the past 6 hours but should resume a general southwest track during Friday as an upper level trough passes to the south. Gales may persist in the southern semi-circle for a period after the system weakens below cyclone intensity.
Quoting 762. sar2401:

New Orleans sure seems to be hopped up on your rain forecast for the weekend. The Boys in Birmingham aren't anywhere near as excited. This one must be going to track a lot more from the western Gulf and then NE instead of having the front drag along the Gulf like we had with the last front. If we get more than an inch, it should be in NW AL, closer to the warm front headed north. How much did you get total from the two days at your place? I got 3.96", the most we've gotten since April. I'd take even a couple more inches since our soil is still not saturated but I guess things are a little more mushy in your neck of the woods.


Do the Boys in Birmingham ever get excited? I don't have a rain gauge here, but based on info from here I got around 2" (sure seemed like more). An area of training precip started just to my NE so we dodged it. Considering the rain over the last 7 or even 14 days, there's a significant area just to my north, that spreads over a large lateral area E-W that has quite a bit more than here. I'm not sure where we are compared to the drought outlook that came out last week, but it will be interesting to see where we stand now (if the deficit was made up or not).

Personally, I like dodging the rain, drought or no. I think I've gotten a bit spoiled, with areas to my west, north, and further east at the FL panhandle often getting more than us here in SELA.

But who knows? Maybe I'll get lucky again and someone else will hit the jackpot.
Thanks everyone for your forgiveness. Sometimes I just feel like I get to carried away and get too bothersome sometimes.
770. ryang
Haven't been here for a while. Passing through quickly. Hope everyone had a good Christmas and I wish you all the best for the new year.
Quoting 765. CaribBoy:

Boring season is here!


Not for me this is my first year in a place with a REAL winter. And I am going to enjoy each and every day. I
Quoting 769. Andrebrooks:

Thanks everyone for your forgiveness. Sometimes I just feel like I get to carried away and get too bothersome sometimes.

I completely understand. If I was my real self on here, everyone would be rolling their eyes. Even still, I sometimes realize I stepped out a little too much.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Boring season is here!



Lol it's boring ever day of the year for you so nothing new there
Quoting 765. CaribBoy:

Boring season is here!

Now's the time of year when you should be showing the nice harbor with blue skies and the beaches. Maybe you'll attract a few tourists to help fuel the island travel economy before it all gets deciminated by the cat22 you seem to want for your country. Even a cat1 costs the island big time with all the lost business.
Quoting 765. CaribBoy:

Boring season is here!


Boring season as in no DOOMicane hitting the Caribbean? :O)
So how was everyone's Christmas.
It's a Christmas miracle! It was actually sunny for once today! After nearly a month of endless cloudy weather, it was a beautiful day outside! :')
I'm not crying... ok, those are tears of joy in seeing sunny weather for a change. :O)
Hope you all had a good Christmas!
Quoting 777. Andrebrooks:

So how was everyone's Christmas.


One of the drawbacks of being one of the only Jews (cultural, I don't practice anymore) in a small town is that even the Chinese restaurants are closed on Christmas. So no Mu Shu for me today. Instead I did a couple of small sirloin tip roasts on the rotisserie, with carrots and potatoes roasting in the drippings. Mmmm.

Heck, three years ago when the local American Legion post did the "Four Chaplains" Memorial service, they couldn't get a Rabbi in from Reno to read the Rabbi's portion, so they settled for me. :)

Oh, right. Nasty cold and windy today, never made it out of the 30's, and snow squalls in the morning, barely enough for the kids to make snowballs. But they were happy with the coating of white we did get. In the 20's already at 9pm, I suspect the predicted low will be undershot by a bit.

Hope everyone had fun! Housemates got me a "Powercap" LED headlamp's baseball cap, and one of the best books on top bar style beekeeping. I got the RN half a pound of cacao nibs, assorted things for the kids, but the blacksmith suggested I not worry about his traditional bottle of Jameson's, he's still got his backlog from last year.
Quoting 773. TropicalAnalystwx13:




We were talking about that earlier.
ENSO... Make up your mind already!


Merry Christmas Cody and to all on the WunderBlogs!
Quoting LAbonbon:


Do the Boys in Birmingham ever get excited? I don't have a rain gauge here, but based on info from here I got around 2" (sure seemed like more). An area of training precip started just to my NE so we dodged it. Considering the rain over the last 7 or even 14 days, there's a significant area just to my north, that spreads over a large lateral area E-W that has quite a bit more than here. I'm not sure where we are compared to the drought outlook that came out last week, but it will be interesting to see where we stand now (if the deficit was made up or not).

Personally, I like dodging the rain, drought or no. I think I've gotten a bit spoiled, with areas to my west, north, and further east at the FL panhandle often getting more than us here in SELA.

But who knows? Maybe I'll get lucky again and someone else will hit the jackpot.
LOL. No, they don't very often but, when they do, it usually means something's up. The excitement level hasn't risen since this afternoon, so that means that the upcoming storm isn't looking any more threatening or the food intoxication has set in from today's dinner and we'll have to wait until morning when they start thinking straight again. :-) It's supposed to get up to about 75 Sunday but the wind never fully comes around to the south except up in north AL, so that should be the only place we get any significant rain. It does look LA will get a pretty general rainfall Saturday night with some thunderstorms but nothing severe. I was sure happy to get the 4" with no severe weather, so maybe we'll get another inch and at least put an end to this month's drought. Oh my gosh, it's only 364 more shopping days until Christmas! Time to get over to Amazon and beat the rush!!! :-)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY THREE (04U)
2:59 PM WST December 26 2014
=====================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Three (976 hPa) located at 12.3S 94.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 12.9S 94.1E- 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.5S 93.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 14.8S 92.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 116.2S 91.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
Kate was located using visible and microwave imagery.

Over the last few hours an eye has emerged on visible imagery. The precursor to this was deep convection wrapping around the centre on the TC_SSMIS microwave image at 0115 UTC. Prior to this the AMSR2 at 1900 UTC and SSMI at 2041 UTC showed deep convection wrapping about half way around the centre in the western semi circle.

Dvorak: Eye pattern using visible imagery gave DTs of 5.0. Prior to the eye emerging, the CDO pattern gave DTs of 4.0. Time averaged DT is 4.5. MET was 4.5 using a D+ trend with PAT 4.5. FT/CI set to 4.5 with intensity 65 knots [10 minute averaged winds]. This means that Dvorak constraints have been broken for this small system [FT change over 6 hours]. SATCON intensity at 252325 UTC was 62 knots. ADT had CI between 3.7 and 3.8.

ASCAT at 0241 UTC showed 50-55 knot winds near the center.

Shear over the system has decreased allowing for intensification into a category 3 cyclone [hurricane force winds]. CIMSS shear at 00 UTC was about NE 10 knots.

Kate may intensify a little further during the diurnally favorable overnight period. Increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures and lower ocean heat potential should cause the system to weaken on December 27-28 .

The system has tracked towards the west southwest over the past 6 hours and should maintain a general southwest track for the next 72 hours.

Gales may persist in the southern semi-circle for a period after the system weakens below cyclone intensity during December 29
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST December 26 2014
=====================================

A low pressure area formed over southwest bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka coast yesterday, the 25th December 2014 afternoon. It persisted over the same region as a well marked low pressure area at 0300 UTC of today, the 26th December 2014.

According to Dvorak classification, intensity of the system is T1.0 with center near 5.8N 83E . Associated maximum sustained wind speed is 15-20 knots gusting to 30 knots. The estimated central pressure is 1007 hPa. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Sri Lanka, Comorin, Palk Strait, Gulf of Mannar, southwest Bay of Bengal & adjoining Indian ocean between 4.5N to 10.0N 77.0̊E to 84.0E

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
24 HRS LOW
48 HRS LOW
72 HRS MODERATE
Link Romanian snowstorm model forecast.
Quoting 773. TropicalAnalystwx13:





I told you when you said it was only one dot that this was a serious plunge and look now. The question now is after the crash is over how much warming will occur to recuperate and Nino 3.4 goes above +0.5C. Nino 1+2 is the most cool of all well in La Nina territory.
786. 882MB
Quoting 775. CosmicEvents:


Now's the time of year when you should be showing the nice harbor with blue skies and the beaches. Maybe you'll attract a few tourists to help fuel the island travel economy before it all gets deciminated by the cat22 you seem to want for your country. Even a cat1 costs the island big time with all the lost business.


OMG, seriously on Christmas, you are going to write this, WOW no one wants a so called "cat22". Wow your funny you need to understand that some people love to experience mother nature, with no deaths of course. But I'm sorry no disrespect but your comment is true in a way, but you also have to understand that just like storm chasers we love seeing mother natures power, that's a reason why meteorology is so interesting. And yes its a beautiful island but caribBoy, doesnt mean it in a bad way or you would think he wants his island destroyed. Good morning but just my opinion.
did it miss something here SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE
Tropical Cyclone Kate
Tropical Cyclone Kate is a tropical cyclone with a maximum wind speed of 52 mph. It is currently moving to the west at 6 mph.
Morning all. We've had some souper fog this morning. I was out around five a.m. and it was almost impossible to see more than a few feet in front of the car. Crazy stuff!


7 day Tampa Bay area.
Winter Storm Eris Brings Snow to Rockies, Plains, Upper Midwest Published Dec 26 2014 07:28 AM ESt

Snow from Winter Storm Eris will stretch from the Rockies to the Upper Great Lakes through early Saturday. Winter Storm Eris has already blanketed parts of the West in snow and provided a white Christmas in the Rockies, and not just over the higher elevations.

Through early Thursday morning, as much as 13.5 inches of snow had fallen near Galena, Idaho and 10 inches was reported on Wednesday in West Glacier, Montana.

Up to 6.5 inches of snow fell in the Salt Lake City area through Thursday night and 19.7 inches was reported at the George Creek Snotel (elevation 8,994 feet) in Utah. The Green Mountain Snotel (elevation 8,000 feet) in Nevada reported 19 inches through Thursday afternoon.

Denver saw 3.4 inches of snow on Christmas Day which is the third highest snowfall on Christmas since 1882. Snow showers will continue in Denver through Friday.
Through Early Saturday
A strip of mainly light snow will slowly fizzle through the overnight hours in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A few snow showers may linger into Saturday morning in eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

To the south, an area of light to moderate snow will slide into the southern Rockies and southern High Plains of southern Colorado, New Mexico and Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. Lingering light snow is possible in the central High Plains of Nebraska, western Kansas, southeast Wyoming and northern Colorado.
How Much Snow?
Of course, the heaviest snow totals will occur over the mountains of the northern and central Rockies and Wasatch, where totals over a foot are likely through late Friday. See the map at right for our latest forecast.

Generally light accumulations (4 inches or less) are expected farther east into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as well as in a few parts of the southern High Plains.
No cold for us... Drag...
Quoting 795. PensacolaDoug:

No cold for us... Drag...
no cold and no snow here in new haven,conn!
Quoting 785. Tropicsweatherpr:



I told you when you said it was only one dot that this was a serious plunge and look now. The question now is after the crash is over how much warming will occur to recuperate and Nino 3.4 goes above +0.5C. Nino 1+2 is the most cool of all well in La Nina territory.


Between ESPI screaming La Nina coming & for over well over a month now..& the plummet in region 1,2...put a fork in it..
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I told you when you said it was only one dot that this was a serious plunge and look now. The question now is after the crash is over how much warming will occur to recuperate and Nino 3.4 goes above +0.5C. Nino 1+2 is the most cool of all well in La Nina territory.

And I stand by what I said--assumptions cannot be made off a single datapoint. However, it's becoming more evident at this point, judging by both the atmospheric patten and sea surface temperature anomalies, that this El Niño is struggling. A new downwelling oceanic kelvin wave looks to be developing in the West Pacific, so the ENSO battle continues.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY THREE (04U)
8:36 PM WST December 26 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Three (972 hPa) located at 12.3S 93.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 12.7S 93.3E- 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.2S 92.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 14.2S 91.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 15.8S 89.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
A ragged eye is evident on infrared imagery and was evident on visible imagery during the afternoon and in microwave imagery. DTs averaging 5 over three hours have been obtained using an eye pattern. The trend is assessed as D+ giving a MET of 4.5 and the MET is unadjusted via the PAT. FT is set to 4.5. ADT is being held back by a poor initial guess position and a poor initial intensity estimate; which is preventing ADT from taking the PMW into account. At 0749 CIMSS AMSU estimate was 83 knots and SSMIS at 72 knots [1-min]. SATCON gives 75 knots despite the ADT estimate of just 59 knots. Final intensity estimate is set at 70 knots [10-min].


Shear is moderate at around 10-15 knots over the last 12 hours [using CIMSS analysis]

Kate may intensify a little further during the diurnally favorable overnight period. Increasing shear, cooler SSTs and lower ocean heat potential should cause the system to start weakening on December 28 and marked weakening should occur on the 29th if not late on the 28th.

Gales may persist in the southern semi-circle for a period after the system weakens below cyclone intensity during December 29.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 26 2014
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (999 hPa) located at 19.1S 157.8W is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on GOES visible imagery and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Low level circulation center partially exposed. Deep convection has decreased in past 6 hours and lies in the eastern flank of low level circulation center. Organization poor. 03F lies under a moderate to high upper divergent region. Outflow good to the far east but restricted elsewhere. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked the system and move it southeastwards with slight intensification.

The potential for this depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

System #2
--------------

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1001 hPa) located at 10.7S 172.7W is reported as slowly moving, Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the past 12 hours. The system lies under an upper diffulent region in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked the system and move it eastwards with slight intensification.

The potential for this system to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
Morning, all - hope everyone had a nice holiday. I carried on a long-time post-holiday family tradition by having a slice of pie for breakfast. Mmmm mmmm :P

The rain cometh...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN
EXTENDED THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THE
THREAT WILL END WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY.

(snipped out list of cities and towns)

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...
IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...
LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE AND WEST FELICIANA.
IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AMITE...HANCOCK... HARRISON...
JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL AND WILKINSON.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL THAT CAN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD TWO
DAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER BANDS OF RAIN POSSIBLY BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES

SOMEWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* DUE TO RECENT RAINS...SOME RIVERS MAY SWELL TO FLOOD STAGE IF
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCUR. ALSO...SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS MAY RESULT IF RAINS PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.



And more rain later in the week:

Quoting 797. Skyepony:



Between ESPI screaming La Nina coming & for over well over a month now..& the plummet in region 1,2...put a fork in it..


Quoting 785. Tropicsweatherpr:



I told you when you said it was only one dot that this was a serious plunge and look now. The question now is after the crash is over how much warming will occur to recuperate and Nino 3.4 goes above +0.5C. Nino 1+2 is the most cool of all well in La Nina territory.

Sounds like you were lucky. But presenting a "I told you so" after a "one dot moved" forecast, well, hopefully you had more reasoning than that?
Quoting tampabaymatt:


7 day Tampa Bay area.


No rain in our Forecast down here in Fort Myers.
Today makes 29 days with only .05" of rain.

Looks like the next system will dump more rain up in LA and the western Panhandle.
Southern half of Fl. will most likely miss out on the rain.
Quoting 805. Sfloridacat5:



No rain in our Forecast down here in Fort Myers.
Today makes 29 days with only .05" of rain.

Looks like the next system will dump more rain up in LA and the western Panhandle.
Southern half of Fl. will most likely miss out on the rain.


Yeah, looks like there's not much headed your way, unfortunately. Looking at this week's Drought Monitor, S. Florida isn't categorized as being in drought or even dry conditions. But the Palmer Index puts you guys in extreme drought. I wonder why they're so different. Anyone know?


Quoting 805. Sfloridacat5:



No rain in our Forecast down here in Fort Myers.
Today makes 29 days with only .05" of rain.

Looks like the next system will dump more rain up in LA and the western Panhandle.
Southern half of Fl. will most likely miss out on the rain.


It's truly unbelievable how Ft. Myers is so far below the norm for rainfall this calendar year, when the rest of the state is flush with rainfall. Tampa has had it's rainiest year over the past 5-6 years, and no tropical systems even came through.
Quoting LAbonbon:


Yeah, looks like there's not much headed your way, unfortunately. Looking at this week's Drought Monitor, S. Florida isn't categorized as being in drought or even dry conditions. But the Palmer Index puts you guys in extreme drought. I wonder why they're so different. Anyone know?
In short, they're looking at the same data, but in different ways. From the drought monitor:

"Short-term drought indicator blends focus on 1-3 month precipitation. Long-term blends focus on 6-60 months. Additional indices used, mainly during the growing season, include the USDA/NASS Topsoil Moisture, Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), and NOAA/NESDIS satellite Vegetation Health Indices. Indices used primarily during the snow season and in the West include snow water content, river basin precipitation, and the Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI). Other indicators include groundwater levels, reservoir storage, and pasture/range conditions."

From the Palmer Drought Severity Index page:

"The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, weekly index from CPC shown), devised in 1965, was the first drought indicator to assess moisture status comprehensively. It uses temperature and precipitation data to calculate water supply and demand, incorporates soil moisture, and is considered most effective for unirrigated cropland. It primarily reflects long-term drought and has been used extensively to initiate drought relief. It is more complex than the SPI and the Drought Monitor."
Quoting 807. LAbonbon:



Yeah, looks like there's not much headed your way, unfortunately. Looking at this week's Drought Monitor, S. Florida isn't categorized as being in drought or even dry conditions. But the Palmer Index puts you guys in extreme drought. I wonder why they're so different. Anyone know?





It really surprises me that SW FL isn't at least in DO or D1. When Tampa had a few years of rainfall in the 40"-45" range, you'd think the dust bowl was coming with all the panic that ensued.
811. wxmod
China issued the 2014-2020 development planning for weather modification
Dec 26,2014

BEIJING, Dec. 26 (Xinhuanet) -- On December 17, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) jointly issued Development Planning for National Weather Modification (2014-2020). The Planning confirms the further guiding thought, goals, general layout, primary missions, and operating mechanism about weather modification. 

According to the Planning, by 2020, China will establish more comprehensive weather modification working system and form six regional development patterns, achieve important results of basic research and application technology, improve support capacities and security control level and increase service benefits for eco-social development. In that time, artificial precipitation will increase over 60 billion cubic meters per year, artificial hail prevention areas will add to 54 million square kilometers.

It's reported that six weather modification regional centers include in centers of Northeast, Northwest, North, Central, Southwest and Southeast, respectively aims to provide supports for food production, ecological environment, water resource, feature agriculture and reservoir filling and generating electricity.

The Planning is a great action for promoting the scientific development of weather modification.

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinh ua.aspx?id=260730
Quoting 808. tampabaymatt:



It's truly unbelievable how Ft. Myers is so far below the norm for rainfall this calendar year, when the rest of the state is flush with rainfall. Tampa has had it's rainiest year over the past 5-6 years, and no tropical systems even came through.
I lived there for many years. I do believe the west to east or " backward pattern " as we called it is partially if not mainly responsible. This pattern has been occurring more often the past ten to fifteen years. I should add that a lot of rain Florida has had is from stalled frontal boundaries. The usually do not reach South Florida or wash out quickly once they do.
Quoting LAbonbon:


Yeah, looks like there's not much headed your way, unfortunately. Looking at this week's Drought Monitor, S. Florida isn't categorized as being in drought or even dry conditions. But the Palmer Index puts you guys in extreme drought. I wonder why they're so different. Anyone know?


Good morning, LA. I think they are are apples vs oranges. Palmer measures not just rainfall but also temperature and the water supply versus demand ratio. The US Drought Monitor only looks at rainfall this week compared to last week and then how those two measures compare to long term climatology. Palmer is a lot more useful for the South, where even normal rainfall can still end up in dry conditions if the heat and evaporation index shows short term drought...or at least that's the way I've always understood it. Dr. Masters is about to put up a new post, so this will disappear anyway. :-)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


No rain in our Forecast down here in Fort Myers.
Today makes 29 days with only .05" of rain.

Looks like the next system will dump more rain up in LA and the western Panhandle.
Southern half of Fl. will most likely miss out on the rain.
Unfortunately, you're probably right about any precipitation in the near future. It looks like we are about to enter a wetter pattern after the First but It's going to take a bit for the lows that will develop in the Gulf to get further south and finally give you some rain. There is some long range indication (and you know how much I trust those things) that we'll start to get some more vigorous lows head our way from the Plains, and the pattern will turn chiller as well. That should be enough to get some cold fronts down into south Florida like we saw in November. Of course, if any of the December models came true, you should have had about six inches of rain now. :-)

EDIT: Every single time...
Quoting 809. Neapolitan:

In short, they're looking at the same data, but in different ways. From the drought monitor:

"Short-term drought indicator blends focus on 1-3 month precipitation. Long-term blends focus on 6-60 months. Additional indices used, mainly during the growing season, include the USDA/NASS Topsoil Moisture, Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), and NOAA/NESDIS satellite Vegetation Health Indices. Indices used primarily during the snow season and in the West include snow water content, river basin precipitation, and the Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI). Other indicators include groundwater levels, reservoir storage, and pasture/range conditions."

From the Palmer Drought Severity Index page:

"The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, weekly index from CPC shown), devised in 1965, was the first drought indicator to assess moisture status comprehensively. It uses temperature and precipitation data to calculate water supply and demand, incorporates soil moisture, and is considered most effective for unirrigated cropland. It primarily reflects long-term drought and has been used extensively to initiate drought relief. It is more complex than the SPI and the Drought Monitor."


I understand the basic differences between the two. It just seems odd that the Palmer Index has S. Florida categorized with it's most severe condition (Extreme Drought), whereas the Drought Monitor hasn't flagged the area as even a D0 (abnormally dry). Last week the Drought Monitor gave a brief mention of dry conditions, but stated that due to recent rains they weren't going for the D0 yet. This week's DM makes no mention of the area at all.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


It really surprises me that SW FL isn't at least in DO or D1. When Tampa had a few years of rainfall in the 40"-45" range, you'd think the dust bowl was coming with all the panic that ensued.


Yeah, if the whole state was 13" below normal there would be a major issue going on.

We'll have to see if S.W. Florida continues to miss out on the rain.
On my personal weather station,I've only received 37.87" (about 16" below normal for the year).
I've lived in Fort Myers for around 20 years and I've never been 16" below normal at the end of the year. Usually, I end up with above normal precipitation because I'm a little east of our official reporting station.

Despite what some other maps indicate South Florida is in need of rain. One small orange dot over Fort Myers, but most the area right around Fort Myers is in the green. My house must be right under the other orange dot southeast of town.lol