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Hurricane Science Legend Dr. Robert Simpson Dies at Age 102

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:29 PM GMT on December 19, 2014

Dr. Robert Simpson, one of the originators of the familiar Saffir-Simpson scale, passed away peacefully in his sleep today at the age of 102. Dr. Simpson began his meteorology career in 1940. During the early 1950s, he urged the U.S. Weather Bureau management to fund modest levels of hurricane research, but budgets didn't allow this. However, the devastating 1954 Atlantic hurricane season changed the minds of several New England congressmen. A special appropriation was passed to improve the Weather Bureau's hurricane warning system, and Bob Simpson was appointed to head up the National Hurricane Research Project in 1955. He held that post until 1959, when he left the Project to finish his doctorate in meteorology at the University of Chicago. Bob led Project Stormfury in the early 1960s, which explored the use of cloud seeding to modify hurricanes. Although Stormfury failed in its goal of reducing the destructiveness of hurricanes, the observational data and storm lifecycle research helped improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts. Bob went on to become the director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) from 1967 - 1974.


Figure 1. Bob Simpson (seated) with (from left to right) NHC hurricane specialists Dan Brown, John Cangialosi, Eric Blake, Todd Kimberlain; hurricane scientist Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State; and former NHC director Max Mayfield. Photo taken by Bill Thorson in April 2012 at the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society in Ponte Verda Beach, Florida.

My experience hearing Dr. Simpson speak
I had the opportunity to hear Dr. Simpson speak back in April 2012, when he gave the opening talk at the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society in Ponte Verda Beach, Florida. He was in amazing shape for a 99 year-old! He described his work with civil engineer Herb Saffir, who worked for the United Nations to develop low-cost housing all over the world that could withstand strong winds. Saffir and Simpson worked together, using data from aerial surveys of hurricane damage that began with Hurricane Audrey in 1957, to help develop their famous scale, which assigns a Category 1 through 5 rating to a storm based on its winds. The Saffir-Simpson scale was finally published in 1973, and gained widespread popularity after Neil Frank replaced Simpson as the director of NHC in 1974. The audience gave Dr. Simpson a standing ovation for making the effort to travel to the conference and give a talk.


Figure 2. Dr. Robert Simpson addresses the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society on April 15, 2012, assisted by session chair Dr. Greg Holland.

Dr. Simpson and the Great 1919 Atlantic-Gulf Hurricane
In a remarkable 1989 interview conducted by hurricane scientist Dr. Ed Zipser of the University of Utah, Dr. Simpson related his experience with the great 1919 Atlantic-Gulf Hurricane, the year that he entered elementary school, which led to his life-long interest in hurricanes:

”I was attending the David Hirsh School on North Beach in Corpus Christi when the great 1919 hurricane struck— the worst Corpus Christi has ever experienced. As luck would have it, the hurricane arrived on a Sunday morning. If it had been on a school day, I would probably have been among the several hundred casualties, because the school building, which was sought out by residents as a shelter, was destroyed. In this hurricane we were all less impressed with the wind than with the spectacular rise of water. The storm surge, as viewed from our near-shoreline residence, arrived in two sudden rises. The first put water about two feet over downtown street levels and occurred in a matter of ten to fifteen minutes at most. The second came one to two hours later when, in a matter of minutes, flood levels rose 6-8 feet over street level. This began to flood the interior of our house which was built quite high. The family had to swim—with me on my father’s back—three blocks in near hurricane force winds to safe shelter in the courthouse— the only high building in the downtown area. A lot of what I saw frightened me, but also supplied a fascination that left me with a lifelong interest in hurricanes.”



Bob Simpson had a huge impact on hurricane science, and he will be greatly missed.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 316. Patrap:

Robert Simpson, co-developer of hurricane scale, dies at 102

By Jason Samenow December 19 at 12:35 PM



Robert (Bob) Simpson, a giant in the field of meteorology, died peacefully in his sleep last night at the age of 102. He is best known for working with engineer Herbert Saffir to develop the 1-5 scale for hurricane intensity, the Saffir-Simpson scale.

I was fortunate enough to meet Simpson at a birthday celebration this past winter, and learn about his career and legacy from several of his colleagues, highly influential meteorologists themselves.


Following the event, I wrote a blog post summarizing Simpson's contributions to the field, excerpted here.

[H]e championed and led hurricane research over several decades, served as director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) from 1968-1974, and was on faculty at the University of Virginia in the late 1970s, among many other accomplishments.

His life story is fascinating. His interest in meteorology was kindled at the age of 6 in his hometown of Corpus Christi, Texas when a hurricane's storm surge interrupted his family's afternoon supper, and was forced to flee to higher ground mid-course. He studied physics in college and graduate school, but took a job as a high school band instructor in the midst of the Great Depression before gaining employment as a weather observer for the U.S. Weather Bureau in 1940. He then spent decades in hurricane research and forecasting, earning his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Chicago along the way, before being appointed director of the National Hurricane Center.

No meteorologist in the 20th century has done more to advance hurricane science than Bob Simpson, says Jeff Halverson, who served as a post-doc under Joanne Simpson, Simpson's wife, at NASA.He was a powerful, motivating force who worked steadily behind the scenes to establish major hurricane research and forecast agencies, including the National Hurricane Research Program (NHRP) in 1955 and a dedicated hurricane prediction office, Miami's National Hurricane Center, in 1968. He directed the nation's only hurricane modification experiment, Project Stormfury, starting in 1962. Few people realize that Bob established a tropical weather observatory at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, from which the world-famous Keeling Curve of CO2 concentration is derived.

As accomplished as Simpson was a scientist and leader, he was equally admired for his character and commitment to mentoring countless professionals in meteorology. His wife Joanne Simpson, who died in 2010, is also renowned for her contributions to the field.

Simpson lived in Washington, D.C.


thanks dok...so sorry to hear about his death...
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters, R.I.P. Dr. Simpson.
Thanks, Dr masters. He was a great person and really lucky to had the opportunity to hit that age 102, may he rest in peace. And from my last post, has anyone mentioned the 5.6 magnitude earthquake that struck just 2km off the island Guadeloupe, this afternoon. Also I see more models agreeing on a pretty potent storm system for Christmas eve , and Christmas day.
43/68 with light winds and increasing clouds in the afternoon. Waiting for rain.
The data speaks for itself.


What an amazing life Dr. Simpson lead!
The datum speaks for itself. The data speak ;)
thanks for update doc great honorable mention for the late Dr. Simpson may he R.I.P.
RIP, Dr. Simpson. You lived a long and productive life. Now you get the chance to find out all those answers that eluded you for so many years.
Dr. Robert Simpson was a inspiration to many in the field of weather science and will be to many in the future !!
One hates to plus a death notice, but thank you so much for posting this, Doc.... How well deserved is it for Mr. Simpson to live so long.... think about the lives he helped to preserve through his various contributions over the years! Sad news it is, but definitely his is a life to be celebrated.
Truly a pioneer in weather technology. May the clouds of heaven open up and roar as you come in.
Quoting 882MB:
Thanks, Dr masters. He was a great person and really lucky to had the opportunity to hit that age 102, may he rest in peace. And from my last post, has anyone mentioned the 5.6 magnitude earthquake that struck just 2km off the island Guadeloupe, this afternoon. Also I see more models agreeing on a pretty potent storm system for Christmas eve , and Christmas day.
I saw the reports of the earthquake but, at 114 km depth, it wasn't likely to cause any injuries or property damage. From what little I've seen in the news, it appears this turned out to be the case. I've already written about my views on model performance to date.
Thanks Dr. Masters. It's tough when we lose such a great pioneer as Dr. Simpson, but what a full life he lived!
Thanks Doc..Mr. Simpsons name was in or on the front of almost every weather book I ever read. Which is many..I still have a lot..Ironically , 1985,s T.S. Bob ruined 8 of the very old ones I had, and they were rare finds.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
May you rest in peace Mr. Simpson. You contributed a great deal to the weather community and general public.
Quoting 419. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Mele Kalikimaka


Fair winds and a calm eye to Mr. Simpson,...a Great Meteorologist and Human being to all.

back atcha keeper and everyone,

Mele Kalikimaka
Quoting 15. sar2401:

I saw the reports of the earthquake but, at 114 km depth, it wasn't likely to cause any injuries or property damage. From what little I've seen in the news, it appears this turned out to be the case. I've already written about my views on model performance to date.


Thank god, it was at that depth, or it would of been felt much stronger.
Christmas Day: Locally heavy, wind-driven snow in some of the Great Lakes snowbelts from the U.P. of Michigan and northern Lower Michigan to northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western, central and Upstate New York. Windy, cold weather will linger in the rest of the Northeast. The western storm will spread snow in the Great Basin, Wasatch, northern and central Rockies, including some lower elevations as cold air plunges south. Snow may spread east into parts of the northern Plains, as well.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 13. BahaHurican:

One hates to plus a death notice, but thank you so much for posting this, Doc.... How well deserved is it for Mr. Simpson to live so long.... think about the lives he helped to preserve through his various contributions over the years! Sad news it is, but definitely his is a life to be celebrated.


Really nice quote baha. Thumbs up, its so true but like many have said here, we learned so much from him, and he will be remembered for generations.
Quoting 21. 882MB:



Thank god, it was at that depth, or it would of been felt much stronger.


We had a tiny one here... 2.6.

I'll take those all day long over a much larger one.
Thank you for posting this Dr. Jeff Masters. Rest in peace Dr. Robert Simpson. You will be missed :,(
Quoting 882MB:


Thank god, it was at that depth, or it would of been felt much stronger.
Indeed. There was a whopper there in 1843, variously estimated at mag 7.8 - 8.5 with a huge shaking zone. It seems as if there was a rent in the subduction zone related to eruptions from the Soufrière volcano. Parts of the island sank until about 1869, apparently due to the subduction zone becoming active right under Guadeloupe, with some of the small islands out in the bay sinking from sight. Strangely, this large quake didn't cause any significant tsunami activity. Very interesting place in terms of geology.
28. vis0
May you rest in peace Mr. Simpson, all knowing that your hard work  has given humanity the opportunity to better protect themselves by disseminating the  immense knowledge you helped collect and passing on that knowledge to fellow researchers and the public in better understanding nature, rest in peace.
Quoting 27. sar2401:

Indeed. There was a whopper there in 1843, variously estimated at mag 7.8 - 8.5 with a huge shaking zone. It seems as if there was a rent in the subduction zone related to eruptions from the Soufrière volcano. Parts of the island sank until about 1869, apparently due to the subduction zone becoming active right under Guadeloupe, with some of the small islands out in the bay sinking from sight. Strangely, this large quake didn't cause any significant tsunami activity. Very interesting place in terms of geology.
Quoting 27. sar2401:

Indeed. There was a whopper there in 1843, variously estimated at mag 7.8 - 8.5 with a huge shaking zone. It seems as if there was a rent in the subduction zone related to eruptions from the Soufrière volcano. Parts of the island sank until about 1869, apparently due to the subduction zone becoming active right under Guadeloupe, with some of the small islands out in the bay sinking from sight. Strangely, this large quake didn't cause any significant tsunami activity. Very interesting place in terms of geology.


Wow pretty interesting facts, thanks Sar2401. That area is pretty active since the eruption of the volcano in Montserrat, am I correct?
From the Miami NWS Disco...

DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BECOME FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED H5 LOW BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL REINFORCE WAA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
H5 LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG WITH AMBIENT HEATING SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. CONSENSUS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

Beautimus for West Palm Beach...

RIP, Dr. Simpson. What an amazing life.
R.I.P. Dr Simpson..Where no chart can measure what you have done...
Greetings Pat if you are still here...Are you sure we are not being whacked with a CME or some other solar event..Everything electronic here is acting strange..My weather radio keep being interrupted with cracking and static sounds..Internet is slow and fast , GFS is not working , NAM not going....Maybe its Jupiter...It does have an affect on our stuff..:)
Quoting 32. bayoubug:

R.I.P. Dr Simpson..Where no chart can measure what you have done...
Great post.. decades of data that certainly saved many lives, vital far in the past , important now , and will continue to be in the future.
Quoting 33. hydrus:

Greetings Pat if you are still here...Are you sure we are not being whacked with a CME or some other solar event..Everything electronic here is acting strange..My weather radio keep being interrupted with cracking and static sounds..Internet is slow and fast , GFS is not working , NAM not going....Maybe its Jupiter...It does have an affect on our stuff..:)


One CME was expected today, another hit expected tomorrow. Or it could be a cyber attack on the infrastructure. Check out Solar Ham website.
Quoting 35. Catherdr:



One CME was expected today, another hit expected tomorrow. Or it could be a cyber attack on the infrastructure. Check out Solar Ham website.
Will do..
Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 111
Issue Time: 2014 Dec 20 0100 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2014 Dec 20 0011 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Dec 20 0028 UTC
End Time: 2014 Dec 20 0055 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S19W29
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Comment: NOAA Active Region 12242; optical class is preliminary

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.
Quoting 35. Catherdr:



One CME was expected today, another hit expected tomorrow. Or it could be a cyber attack on the infrastructure. Check out Solar Ham website.
Found the one that screwed things up...i think...


R3 Strong Radio Blackout (X1 flare) from NOAA Active Region 12242
published:
Saturday, December 20, 2014 01:09 UTC

NOAA Active Region 12242 produced an R3 (strong) radio blackout today at 20/0028 UTC (December 19 at 7:28 p.m.
Quoting 30. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco...

DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BECOME FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED H5 LOW BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL REINFORCE WAA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
H5 LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER THE SURFACE FORCING ALONG WITH AMBIENT HEATING SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A DECENT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. CONSENSUS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 DEGREES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

Beautimus for West Palm Beach...


So long as this passes through here by mid-day Christmas It should be okay. We don't need Junkanoo to be rained out.

Quoting 33. hydrus:

Greetings Pat if you are still here...Are you sure we are not being whacked with a CME or some other solar event..Everything electronic here is acting strange..My weather radio keep being interrupted with cracking and static sounds..Internet is slow and fast , GFS is not working , NAM not going....Maybe its Jupiter...It does have an affect on our stuff..:)
Oh, kay.... that was weird... I read this and suddenly my computer went on standby ... for no apparent reason. ....

Twilight blog . ...
Quoting 33. hydrus:

Greetings Pat if you are still here...Are you sure we are not being whacked with a CME or some other solar event..Everything electronic here is acting strange..My weather radio keep being interrupted with cracking and static sounds..Internet is slow and fast , GFS is not working , NAM not going....Maybe its Jupiter...It does have an affect on our stuff..:)


Quoting 38. hydrus:

Found the one that screwed things up...i think...


R3 Strong Radio Blackout (X1 flare) from NOAA Active Region 12242
published:
Saturday, December 20, 2014 01:09 UTC

NOAA Active Region 12242 produced an R3 (strong) radio blackout today at 20/0028 UTC (December 19 at 7:28 p.m.



Nice.... (well not really nice)...
Quoting 39. BahaHurican:

So long as this passes through here by mid-day Christmas It should be okay. We don't need Junkanoo to be rained out.

Oh, kay.... that was weird... I read this and suddenly my computer went on standby ... for no apparent reason. ....

Twilight blog . ...
Howdy Baha...The Zone , or the Sun playing tricks...I have seen it many times..On land and at sea..At sea is really strange.
looks like a new event

From the last entry page,




Solar activity increased once again to high levels. Region 2241 was responsible for the largest event of the period, an M6.9 solar flare at 21:58 UTC (Dec 18). Coronagraph imagery reveals a faint halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with a potential Earth directed component. Prediction models are calling for an impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. This could lead to a potential geomagnetic storm if an impact does materialize. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert this weekend. Region 2242, along with interaction between regions 2235 and 2237, produced a moderate M1.3 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC (Dec 19). All other visible regions remained stable. A new sunspot is forming in the southeast quadrant and could be assigned a number later today. Continue to monitor SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery.



A moderately strong M6.9 solar flare was observed on Thursday (Dec 18, 2014) around sunspot region 2241. Although coronagraph imagery still needs to be backfilled, updated imagery by LASCO C3 shows a coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun with a potential Earth directed component. A new CME prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is calling for a potential impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. More updates once additional imagery becomes available. Attached is various looks at the event courtesy of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).


Will that CME hit Earth too? Assuming there is one shortly?
Quoting 40. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Interesting. my feel is that the challenges the internet faces for establishing peace will fight the same enemies we do outside of cyber space....I would like to see the Earth , its creatures , and its nations at peace before I die.
Quoting 45. Dakster:

Will that CME hit Earth too? Assuming there is one shortly?


Prediction models are calling for an impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. This could lead to a potential geomagnetic storm if an impact does materialize. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert this weekend.
R.I.P. Dr. Simpson, you were truly a pioneer in hurricane research.
Quoting 46. hydrus:

Interesting. my feel is that the challenges the internet faces for establishing peace will fight the same enemies we do outside of cyber space....I would like to see the Earth , its creatures , and its nations at peace before I die.


..if we are not capable of that, then the computer'..
Quoting 46. hydrus:

Interesting. my feel is that the challenges the internet faces for establishing peace will fight the same enemies we do outside of cyber space....I would like to see the Earth , its creatures , and its nations at peace before I die.


Me too... But since I am not immortal the chances of that happening during my lifetime are slim to none.

Patrap - Thanks and I guess that is me in the high latitudes at 61N....
Quoting 47. Patrap:



Prediction models are calling for an impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. This could lead to a potential geomagnetic storm if an impact does materialize. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert this weekend.
Saw massive aurora on the Great Lakes in 85..Absolutely one of the coolest things I ever saw.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms. The cloud was hurled into space two days ago by an M9-class explosion in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2242. Although the bulk of the CME flew south of the sun-Earth line, a collision is still possible. Computer models suggest a glancing impact on Dec. 19th with magnetic reverberations lasting until the 20th.
Quoting 47. Patrap:



Prediction models are calling for an impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. This could lead to a potential geomagnetic storm if an impact does materialize. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert this weekend.


How far south?
Quoting 53. TimTheWxMan:



How far south?


GO to www.solarweather.com it shows the Auroral cone.

This time it appears that Alaska is not in the cone... of pretty lights - not death as in Hurricanes.
Does anyone here know about The Superstorm of 1859?


nice peak

time stamp 00.28.00 2014 12 20





had to scroll back on viewer till I captured this
Quoting 60. Tornado6042008X:

Does anyone here know about The Superstorm of 1859?





I'm sure grothar was there...
Carrington super flare

From August 28 through September 2, 1859, numerous sunspots were observed on the Sun. On August 29, southern aurorae were observed as far north as Queensland in Australia. Just before noon on September 1, the English amateur astronomers Richard Carrington and Richard Hodgson independently made the first observations of a solar flare.

The flare was associated with a major coronal mass ejection (CME) that travelled directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours to make the 93 million mile journey. It is believed that the relatively high speed of this CME (typical CMEs take several days to arrive at Earth) was made possible by a prior CME, perhaps the cause of the large aurora event on August 29, that "cleared the way" of ambient solar wind plasma for the Carrington event.

Because of a simultaneous "crochet" observed in the Kew Observatory magnetometer record by Scottish physicist Balfour Stewart and a geomagnetic storm observed the following day, Carrington suspected a solar-terrestrial connection. Worldwide reports on the effects of the geomagnetic storm of 1859 were compiled and published by Elias Loomis, which support the observations of Carrington and Stewart.


On September 1–2, 1859, one of the largest recorded geomagnetic storms (as recorded by ground-based magnetometers) occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere even as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. People who happened to be awake in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[5] The aurora was visible as far from the poles as Cuba and Hawaii.

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks. Telegraph pylons threw sparks. Some telegraph systems continued to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.
On Saturday, September 3, 1859, the Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser reported, "Those who happened to be out late on Thursday night had an opportunity of witnessing another magnificent display of the auroral lights. The phenomenon was very similar to the display on Sunday night, though at times the light was, if possible, more brilliant, and the prismatic hues more varied and gorgeous. The light appeared to cover the whole firmament, apparently like a luminous cloud, through which the stars of the larger magnitude indistinctly shone. The light was greater than that of the moon at its full, but had an indescribable softness and delicacy that seemed to envelop everything upon which it rested. Between 12 and 1 o'clock, when the display was at its full brilliancy, the quiet streets of the city resting under this strange light, presented a beautiful as well as singular appearance."

In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the US alone at $0.6–2.6 trillion.

Similar events

Ice cores containing thin nitrate-rich layers have been analyzed to reconstruct a history of past solar storms predating reliable observations. Data from Greenland ice cores, gathered by Kenneth G. McCracken and others, show evidence that events of this magnitude—as measured by high-energy proton radiation, not geomagnetic effect—occur approximately once per 500 years, with events at least one-fifth as large occurring several times per century.

However, more recent work by the ice core community (McCracken et al. are space scientists) shows that nitrate spikes are not a result of solar energetic particle events, so use of this technique is in doubt. 10Be and 14C are considered to be more reliable indicators by the ice core community.These similar but much more extreme cosmic ray events, however, may originate outside the solar system and even outside the galaxy. Less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec.

On July 23, 2012 a "Carrington-class" Solar Superstorm (Solar flare, Coronal mass ejection, Solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory missed Earth in orbit. Information about these observations was shared first publicly by NASA on April 28, 2014.
Quoting 60. Tornado6042008X:

Does anyone here know about The Superstorm of 1859?



The Carrington Event I believe it was called. It was big.....Link
Good night to all..
More flaring to report, this time a moderately strong M6.9 solar flare around region 2241 at 21:58 UTC. Although coronagraph imagery still needs to be backfilled, new photos released by LASCO C3 show a coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun with a potential Earth directed component. An updated CME prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is calling for a potential impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. More updates once additional imagery becomes available.

Quoting 64. hydrus:

The Carrington Event I believe it was called. It was big.....Link
Its ironic that I just looked that up today and then I hear about this potential event. It's certainly not going to be as strong as the Carrington Event but...... it fascinated me greatly with all of the reports of the aurora being seen as far south as Cuba and even Jamaica. Just phenomenal.

Not to mention all of the wires that caught fire from the solar storm providing the wires with too much electricity causing them to overload.
Quoting 65. hydrus:

Good night to all..
night see ya tomorrow
Quoting 63. Patrap:

Carrington super flare

From August 28 through September 2, 1859, numerous sunspots were observed on the Sun. On August 29, southern aurorae were observed as far north as Queensland in Australia. Just before noon on September 1, the English amateur astronomers Richard Carrington and Richard Hodgson independently made the first observations of a solar flare.

The flare was associated with a major coronal mass ejection (CME) that travelled directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours to make the 93 million mile journey. It is believed that the relatively high speed of this CME (typical CMEs take several days to arrive at Earth) was made possible by a prior CME, perhaps the cause of the large aurora event on August 29, that "cleared the way" of ambient solar wind plasma for the Carrington event.

Because of a simultaneous "crochet" observed in the Kew Observatory magnetometer record by Scottish physicist Balfour Stewart and a geomagnetic storm observed the following day, Carrington suspected a solar-terrestrial connection. Worldwide reports on the effects of the geomagnetic storm of 1859 were compiled and published by Elias Loomis, which support the observations of Carrington and Stewart.


On September 1–2, 1859, one of the largest recorded geomagnetic storms (as recorded by ground-based magnetometers) occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere even as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. People who happened to be awake in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[5] The aurora was visible as far from the poles as Cuba and Hawaii.

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks. Telegraph pylons threw sparks. Some telegraph systems continued to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.
On Saturday, September 3, 1859, the Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser reported, "Those who happened to be out late on Thursday night had an opportunity of witnessing another magnificent display of the auroral lights. The phenomenon was very similar to the display on Sunday night, though at times the light was, if possible, more brilliant, and the prismatic hues more varied and gorgeous. The light appeared to cover the whole firmament, apparently like a luminous cloud, through which the stars of the larger magnitude indistinctly shone. The light was greater than that of the moon at its full, but had an indescribable softness and delicacy that seemed to envelop everything upon which it rested. Between 12 and 1 o'clock, when the display was at its full brilliancy, the quiet streets of the city resting under this strange light, presented a beautiful as well as singular appearance."

In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the US alone at $0.6–2.6 trillion.

Similar events

Ice cores containing thin nitrate-rich layers have been analyzed to reconstruct a history of past solar storms predating reliable observations. Data from Greenland ice cores, gathered by Kenneth G. McCracken and others, show evidence that events of this magnitude—as measured by high-energy proton radiation, not geomagnetic effect—occur approximately once per 500 years, with events at least one-fifth as large occurring several times per century.

However, more recent work by the ice core community (McCracken et al. are space scientists) shows that nitrate spikes are not a result of solar energetic particle events, so use of this technique is in doubt. 10Be and 14C are considered to be more reliable indicators by the ice core community.These similar but much more extreme cosmic ray events, however, may originate outside the solar system and even outside the galaxy. Less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec.

On July 23, 2012 a "Carrington-class" Solar Superstorm (Solar flare, Coronal mass ejection, Solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory missed Earth in orbit. Information about these observations was shared first publicly by NASA on April 28, 2014.

Now how would the world act if an event like that happened today?........
Quoting 70. Patrap:


maybe we get to see the lights the first night of winter on sunday
Quoting 62. Dakster:



I'm sure grothar was there...
Hi Dakster,
Thanks. Just saw the comments you left a couple nights ago/couple blogs back on your experience with your Volt charging it and distance per charge. The practical and the conceptual about electric cars would be an interesting blog topic. Had to look up Hypermile. lol Hope you got studs all around on that 4x4.
Quoting 74. Barefootontherocks:

Hi Dakster,
Thanks. Just saw the comments you left a couple nights ago/couple blogs back on your experience with your Volt charging it and distance per charge. The practical and the conceptual about electric cars would be an interesting blog topic. Had to look up Hypermile. lol Hope you got studs all around on that 4x4.


You are welcome. No studs yet just mud and snow tires.
Quoting 71. Tornado6042008X:

Now how would the world act if an event like that happened today?........


It would be a lot quieter,..

Think of the selfies lost too.
Attention User:

Update (12/19/2014): We are currently experiencing issues with GFS & NAM model data, resulting in late production times and bad images for those models. The problem is the data is being sent late from the source, so there is little we can do. We are making an effort to regenerate our images once we do receive the data, but we are noticing the delay to be abnormally long at times, so image regeneration isn't always possible. Again, the problem lies at the source of the data transmission, and we are hoping for a resolution by the end of the day tomorrow. We apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused.

from CDO website
Was reading the wiki article about Dr. Robert S. Simpson...
"... In 1961, he obtained a National Science Foundation grant to study seeding hurricanes with silver iodide. He put together an experiment using NHRP and United States Navy aircraft to seed Hurricane Esther. The encouraging results led the Weather Bureau and the Navy to start Project STORMFURY in 1962, with Simpson as Director. He headed up the Project for the next three years, including the seeding of Hurricane Beulah in 1963. He married Joanne Malkus in 1965 and persuaded her to take over as Director of STORMFURY for the next two years as he became Director of Operations for the Weather Bureau.[6]

Dr. Joanne Simpson, his wife who passed away in 2010 "... was a recipient of the AMS's Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal in 1983, its highest honor, for 'outstanding contributions to man's understanding of the structure of the atmosphere.'"
She was the first woman (in U.S. anyway) to receive a PhD in meteorology.

Can you imagine the dinner table conversations? Wow.

RIP, Dr. Simpson
Does anyone have 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season predictions?
Great story. Thanks.
Quoting 79. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Does anyone have 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season predictions?


Still 2014 :)
Quoting 81. bryanfromkyleTX:



Still 2014 :)


And that hasn't stopped anyone before from making a prediction.
Was there an Earth directed CME in late January 1978 & Early-mid March, 1993?
An incredibly strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave, a key part in the upcoming pattern change across North America, is currently passing across the Indian Ocean. Believe it or not, this same kelvin wave has already orbited the globe two times (it first developed around Halloween), and model forecasts show it remaining very distinct into the West Hemisphere as we begin 2015.

Quoting 85. BaltimoreBrian:

Are there 'oceans' hiding inside the Earth? (video)


Hey BB - Interesting... Always wondered if another eco system was thriving beneath the oceans.
Baltimore Brian, I really appreciate your science news links. That video of the deep-sea fish reminded me of this story I read awhile back:
Mariana Trench once again named worst place to raise a child.
Thank you oldnewmex!
That fish is pretty amazing, just thinking about how much pressure is down there and how that fish can survive is incredible. Only wish it was possible to study how it does it, so that maybe we can learn something from it. (without killing it)
Dakster the pressure is slightly over 8 tons per square inch at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.
Quoting 91. BaltimoreBrian:

Dakster the pressure is slightly over 8 tons per square inch at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.
and some of the oldest ocean bed on the planet
Quoting 90. Dakster:

That fish is pretty amazing, just thinking about how much pressure is down there and how that fish can survive is incredible. Only wish it was possible to study how it does it, so that maybe we can learn something from it. (without killing it)

At first, I assumed it fed off chance encounters with food particles or prey, but did you see it do a quick nose-dive into that pile of "dirt"? Interesting.
Quoting 91. BaltimoreBrian:

Dakster the pressure is slightly over 8 tons per square inch at the bottom of the Marianas Trench.


You are saying that, like that is alot... Considering we live at 14.7 pounds per square inch at sea level...

(That was sarcasm, for the humor impaired)
Looking like a dangerous set up severe weather wise for the SE US especially FL Tuesday & Wednesday as we will likely be tracking supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. AL, GA, FL, NC, & SC better stay aware of this developing situation as I don't think I've ever seen a set up quite like this just before Christmas.

Could be quite the outbreak as 70 to 75 degree dewpoints are going to surge off the Gulf and meet a very intense trough moving across the GULF & Southern US.


As you can see the leading edge of very deep moisture is already heading into the SE GULF this morning.

Quoting 95. StormTrackerScott:

Looking like a dangerous set up severe weather wise for the SE US especially FL Tuesday & Wednesday as we will likely be tracking supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. AL, GA, FL, NC, & SC better stay aware of this developing situation as I don't think I've ever seen a set up quite like this just before Christmas.

Could be quite the outbreak as 70 to 75 degree dewpoints are going to surge off the Gulf and meet a very intense trough moving across the GULF & Southern US.




The severe weather threat doesn't look anything out of the ordinary for this time of the year. Plenty of moisture and a screaming upper-level jet, but limited instability given what should be widespread cloudiness and rain. SPC will probably go with a Slight risk later this morning, if I had to guess.
Quoting 97. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The severe weather threat doesn't look anything out of the ordinary for this time of the year. Plenty of moisture and a screaming upper-level jet, but limited instability given what should be widespread cloudiness and rain. SPC will probably go with a Slight risk later this morning, if I had to guess.


Haven't looked at GFS but the CAPE on the Euro is pretty high across the SE US. If what I am seeing on the models pans out then I wouldn't even be surprised to see a moderate risk issued from FL to NC Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

The story about the 1919 hurricane reminded me of an article I just read in Science News (Emotional Wounds, Dec. 13, p. 22) about the impact of disasters such as hurricanes on children.
For a look at the possible consequences of a Carrington-class solar storm see the April 3, 2009 blog entry, A future Space Weather catastrophe : a disturbing possibility.
500mb temps at -12C here in FL too lower in NC. Bottomline there is going to be lots of energy available and we may not need any sun to get things charged up as convective temps look to be in the 70's.
Heck there could be severe weather in Washington DC on Christmas EVE.
Quoting 102. StormTrackerScott:

Heck there could be severe weather in Washington DC on Christmas EVE.


Snow?
Quoting 103. Dakster:


Snow?


No snow too warm. Straight line winds with thunderstorms moving across the DC/Baltimore area Wednesday. Very unusual to have temps in the mid 60's in DC this time of year with high moisture levels.


Thanks STS...

I still keep tabs on the East Coast weather... Mine is pretty easy, it's just gonna be cold. (Kinda like Miami in the summer, it is going to be hot, rainy, and humid.
Quoting 105. Dakster:
Thanks STS...

I still keep tabs on the East Coast weather... Mine is pretty easy, it's just gonna be cold. (Kinda like Miami in the summer, it is going to be hot, rainy, and humid.


Yeah we are going to in for a wild ride over on this side of North America the next several days maybe the next several weeks. TA13 had an interesting post yesterday of a figure 8 pattern setting up across North America in January & February.
This must be a result of this kelvin Wave (MJO) that TA13 was referring too.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-12.8
108. emguy
Quoting 98. StormTrackerScott:



Haven't looked at GFS but the CAPE on the Euro is pretty high across the SE US. If what I am seeing on the models pans out then I wouldn't even be surprised to see a moderate risk issued from FL to NC Tuesday Night into Wednesday.




I'd have to say I am also doubtful. CAPE is not the only aspect...without seeing the rest of the run...this image shows a deep trough...but it's not digging...IE: it's not negatively tilted in this time frame at the least. That's a missing ingredient in this time frame. Also...hard to tell just looking at one image (again)...but has it been me of is this setting up just a smidgen further west yet again?
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY /DAY 4/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES TUESDAY.

THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ON
DAY 4 /PRIMARILY DUE TO EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION/ FEEL AT LEAST
A 15% AREA APPEARS WARRANTED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION INTO A PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA.
RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INLAND CONTRIBUTING
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL EXIST. CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED FARTHER EAST ALONG THE
GULF COASTAL STATES DUE TO EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. STRONG
SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL
AS ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE
FARTHER EAST OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS MCS OVER THE GULF MOVES
INLAND.

WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/ SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER INTO DAY 5 ALONG
THE ERN CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FL PENINSULA AS UPPER TROUGH
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.
HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IMPACT
THAT WIDESPREAD EARLY PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE ON INSTABILITY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.


Quoting 108. emguy:


I'd have to say I am also doubtful. CAPE is not the only aspect...without seeing the rest of the run...this image shows a deep trough...but it's not digging...IE: it's not negatively tilted in this time frame at the least. That's a missing ingredient in this time frame. Also...hard to tell just looking at one image (again)...but has it been me of is this setting up just a smidgen further west yet again?


That's because it tilts and digs toward the Gulf on Wednesday. This could be real bad especially since this is happening on Christmas EVE. Also I agree each run seems to be trending west and deeper.Don't be shocked if we see a moderate risk are issued Tuesday night into Wednesday from C FL to NC.
Could someone help me out here? I'm semi retired, but when I worked a shift I would get off work at 0700hrs in the morning, and drive home at the same time all the time, with that said, I remember different things happening with the sunrise and the seasons. I worked in the Big City lived in the country so I can set the stage here.
When I drove in the country in the winter I would notice in January when the sun was going to rise, couldn't wait for the sunrise and always looked at the clock when it started to get light.
At 7:35 EST. was the turning point for me cause I would see things started to get light, remember I did this for 38 years. Well today I slept in on a Saturday, very unusal for me and woke up at 0720hrs, and noticed it was getting light, I thought this was strange, then at 745hrs it was almost totally light, sunrise after the winter solstice is 0804hrs and last at that time till January 10th, one thing I don't understand is after the solstice the sunrise and sunsets keep getting later. This is what I don't understand, in the summer soltstice almost immediatly the days start getting shorter, then continuing till the winter soltstice. I thought things were suppose to be equal with the summer and winter solstice? does this depend on your locale? thanks for comments.
Quoting 102. StormTrackerScott:

Heck there could be severe weather in Washington DC on Christmas EVE.
Yes.This is very pathetic and sad indeed.I would expect something like this during perhaps easter but not Christmas time.
Christmas Week Storms May Bring Snow, Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms, Travel Headaches
Published Dec 20 2014 07:40 AM EST

Christmas Eve: Low pressure should be spinning somewhere over the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley, driving a cold front into the East. Wind-driven snow is possible in at least the western Great Lakes, and possibly in parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Appalachians. A soaking rain, possibly with embedded thunderstorms and strong winds, will sweep into the Northeast, including the I-95 corridor. The rain will likely extend into northern New England and Upstate New York. Rain and thunderstorms, a few storms possibly severe, will extend southward into the Carolinas, eastern Georgia and Florida. Another storm brings mountain snow and valley rain to the Northwest, northern California, Great Basin and northern Rockies. Lowering snow levels may bring some snow to some lower elevations of Washington and Oregon.

- Airport delay potential: Major flight delays are possible in the major Northeast hubs due to high winds, heavy rain, low clouds. Significant flight delays are possible at Chicago's O'Hare and Midway airports, depending on the location of heaviest snow.
way to warm here in new haven,conn on Christmas eve maybe up to 58F!! NO SNOW AT ALL!!
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Could someone help me out here? I'm semi retired, but when I worked a shift I would get off work at 0700hrs in the morning, and drive home at the same time all the time, with that said, I remember different things happening with the sunrise and the seasons. I worked in the Big City lived in the country so I can set the stage here.
When I drove in the country in the winter I would notice in January when the sun was going to rise, couldn't wait for the sunrise and always looked at the clock when it started to get light.
At 7:35 EST. was the turning point for me cause I would see things started to get light, remember I did this for 38 years. Well today I slept in on a Saturday, very unusal for me and woke up at 0720hrs, and noticed it was getting light, I thought this was strange, then at 745hrs it was almost totally light, sunrise after the winter solstice is 0804hrs and last at that time till January 10th, one thing I don't understand is after the solstice the sunrise and sunsets keep getting later. This is what I don't understand, in the summer soltstice almost immediatly the days start getting shorter, then continuing till the winter soltstice. I thought things were suppose to be equal with the summer and winter solstice? does this depend on your locale? thanks for comments.
From EarthSky:

"Why doesn’t the earliest sunset come on the shortest day? The December solstice marks the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere and longest day in the southern hemisphere. But the earliest sunset – or earliest sunrise if you’re south of the equator – happens before the solstice. Many people notice this, and ask about it.

The key to understanding the earliest sunset is not to focus on the time of sunset or sunrise. The key is to focus on what is called true solar noon – the time of day that the sun reaches its highest point, in its journey across your sky.

In early December, true solar noon comes nearly 10 minutes earlier by the clock than it does at the solstice around December 21. With true noon coming later on the solstice, so will the sunrise and sunset times.

It’s this discrepancy between clock time and sun time that causes the earliest sunset and the earliest sunrise to precede the December solstice.

The discrepancy occurs primarily because of the tilt of the Earth’s axis. A secondary but another contributing factor to this discrepancy between clock noon and sun noon comes from the Earth’s elliptical – oblong – orbit around the sun. The Earth’s orbit is not a perfect circle, and when we’re closest to the sun, our world moves fastest in orbit. Our closest point to the sun – or perihelion – comes in early January. So we are moving fastest in orbit around now, slightly faster than our average speed of 18 miles per second."

More at the link.
Quoting 116. Neapolitan:

From EarthSky:

"Why doesn’t the earliest sunset come on the shortest day? The December solstice marks the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere and longest day in the southern hemisphere. But the earliest sunset – or earliest sunrise if you’re south of the equator – happens before the solstice. Many people notice this, and ask about it.

The key to understanding the earliest sunset is not to focus on the time of sunset or sunrise. The key is to focus on what is called true solar noon – the time of day that the sun reaches its highest point, in its journey across your sky.

In early December, true solar noon comes nearly 10 minutes earlier by the clock than it does at the solstice around December 21. With true noon coming later on the solstice, so will the sunrise and sunset times.

It’s this discrepancy between clock time and sun time that causes the earliest sunset and the earliest sunrise to precede the December solstice.

The discrepancy occurs primarily because of the tilt of the Earth’s axis. A secondary but another contributing factor to this discrepancy between clock noon and sun noon comes from the Earth’s elliptical – oblong – orbit around the sun. The Earth’s orbit is not a perfect circle, and when we’re closest to the sun, our world moves fastest in orbit. Our closest point to the sun – or perihelion – comes in early January. So we are moving fastest in orbit around now, slightly faster than our average speed of 18 miles per second."

More at the link.


Thanks for the reply NEA, Merry Christmas!
Carrington super flare..Wiki

From August 28 through September 2, 1859, numerous sunspots were observed on the Sun. On August 29, southern aurorae were observed as far north as Queensland in Australia.[3] Just before noon on September 1, the English amateur astronomers Richard Carrington and Richard Hodgson independently made the first observations of a solar flare.[4] The flare was associated with a major coronal mass ejection (CME) that travelled directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours to make the 93 million mile journey. It is believed that the relatively high speed of this CME (typical CMEs take several days to arrive at Earth) was made possible by a prior CME, perhaps the cause of the large aurora event on August 29, that "cleared the way" of ambient solar wind plasma for the Carrington event.[4]

Because of a simultaneous "crochet" observed in the Kew Observatory magnetometer record by Scottish physicist Balfour Stewart and a geomagnetic storm observed the following day, Carrington suspected a solar-terrestrial connection. Worldwide reports on the effects of the geomagnetic storm of 1859 were compiled and published by Elias Loomis, which support the observations of Carrington and Stewart.

On September 1–2, 1859, one of the largest recorded geomagnetic storms (as recorded by ground-based magnetometers) occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere even as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[4] People who happened to be awake in the northeastern US could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[5] The aurora was visible as far from the poles as Cuba and Hawaii.[6]

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks.[7] Telegraph pylons threw sparks.[8] Some telegraph systems continued to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.[9]
We are getting some surprise snow here in central NC this morning. It's getting everyone in the holiday spirit.
Quoting 120. Chapelhill:

We are getting some surprise snow here in central NC this morning. It's getting everyone in the holiday spirit.
Yeah.... Snow before / at Christmas in that part of the Piedmont is always a [welcome] surprise.... enjoy!

:o)
Quoting Chapelhill:
We are getting some surprise snow here in central NC this morning. It's getting everyone in the holiday spirit.


Get outside and enjoy it, because it will most likely be gone by this afternoon.
32 more hours until Winter begins.
5 days until Christmas.
The year literally ends in 12 days.
Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:



Get outside and enjoy it, because it will most likely be gone by this afternoon.

Yep, I've been out playing soccer with the kids; lots of fun! Sleet is mixing in now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The severe weather threat doesn't look anything out of the ordinary for this time of the year. Plenty of moisture and a screaming upper-level jet, but limited instability given what should be widespread cloudiness and rain. SPC will probably go with a Slight risk later this morning, if I had to guess.

This is what the Boys from Birmingham have to say. It doesn't look like SE AL has much of chance for 70's dewpoints on Tuesday. It looks like the west coastal area of Florida might have the best chance of strong to severe storms on Wednesday if the blob that's forecast to develop in the Gulf turns into a decent MCS. It's 48 and foggy here now after a night-long drizzle that gave me 0.47" of rain, so I'm thankful for that.

THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS STILL
SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TX LATE MONDAY BUT THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH VS EAST AS THE
SYSTEM OCCLUDES. WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
THIS WOULD GENERALLY PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND LOW
60 DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS. CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND OVERCAST SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS ALSO
INDICATIONS OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN/STORMS THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. TAKING THIS IN CONSIDERATION IT'S UNCERTAIN HAS TO
HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS OUR AREA. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
So none of the models showed snow in the triangle this morning in the short range..

those that want snow for christmas and think it will be too warm I wouldn't be putting all my eggs in them thinking it may not snow..they clearly get it wrong even out 24 hours..

NWS, Raleigh last night

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM FRIDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK E/ENE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SAT...INDUCING WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.

PRECIP: THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING...DPVA ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
SAT...THOUGH WEAK DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH APPEAR LIKELY AS THEY TRACK ENE INTO THE CAROLINAS
BETWEEN 06-12Z. THOUGH LOWER-LEVEL FORCING IS ABSENT OVER CENTRAL NC
THIS EVENING...WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 10-
15 KT WESTERLY FLOW AT THE ~850 MB LEVEL BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THAT THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE WEAK (SHORT-LIVED AS WELL)...AND THAT
THE 00Z GSO RAOB SHOWED A THOROUGHLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING
AND/OR MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

TEMPS: LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN TO
THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE FAR SW PIEDMONT AS THICKENING MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA FROM SW-NE.

THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP (PRIOR TO 12Z) WILL
BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. GIVEN THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL
LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE MAGNITUDE/DURATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...THE PRESENCE THEREOF (IN THIS CASE) WOULD IMPLY THERMAL
PROFILES EXCLUSIVELY SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID. -VINCENT
Looking at a beautiful day today here in Fort Myers.
High of 80 degrees and lots of sun. Tomorrow the clouds start to work their way into the area.

I'm sure there are women at the Birmingham, AL office and not just the "Boys"..

Have a good one all..Christmas duties call..I hope some of yall can get out and enjoy life outside of blogging..
06Z GFS predicted a little bit of snow across N.C.



But going further into the future through Dec. 28th, it doesn't bring any snow to the Mid Atlantic region (just the western most part of VA.

Quoting 118. Sfloridacat5:


yes im expecting 4-5 inches out of this coming storm,just hope those predicted straight line winds aren't too bad.
This shows well how the next two systems will pull down the cold air.
Quoting 131. Sfloridacat5:

06Z GFS predicted a little bit of snow across N.C.



But going further into the future through Dec. 28th, it doesn't bring any snow to the Mid Atlantic region (just the western most part of VA.




06z starts at 4:30am if I'm correct..12 hours from 4:30am? It was already snowing before the 12 hour map you posted..the NWS discussion from Raleigh didnt even mention snow..

here was the 6 hour map in case you overlooked it and would be in the correct time sequence..maybe it will snow in DC where you grew up..

Robert Simpson, co-developer of hurricane scale, dies at 102

By Jason Samenow December 19 at 12:35 PM



Robert (Bob) Simpson, a giant in the field of meteorology, died peacefully in his sleep last night at the age of 102. He is best known for working with engineer Herbert Saffir to develop the 1-5 scale for hurricane intensity, the Saffir-Simpson scale.

I was fortunate enough to meet Simpson at a birthday celebration this past winter, and learn about his career and legacy from several of his colleagues, highly influential meteorologists themselves.


Following the event, I wrote a blog post summarizing Simpson's contributions to the field, excerpted here.

[H]e championed and led hurricane research over several decades, served as director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) from 1968-1974, and was on faculty at the University of Virginia in the late 1970s, among many other accomplishments.

His life story is fascinating. His interest in meteorology was kindled at the age of 6 in his hometown of Corpus Christi, Texas when a hurricane's storm surge interrupted his family's afternoon supper, and was forced to flee to higher ground mid-course. He studied physics in college and graduate school, but took a job as a high school band instructor in the midst of the Great Depression before gaining employment as a weather observer for the U.S. Weather Bureau in 1940. He then spent decades in hurricane research and forecasting, earning his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Chicago along the way, before being appointed director of the National Hurricane Center.

No meteorologist in the 20th century has done more to advance hurricane science than Bob Simpson, says Jeff Halverson, who served as a post-doc under Joanne Simpson, Simpson's wife, at NASA.He was a powerful, motivating force who worked steadily behind the scenes to establish major hurricane research and forecast agencies, including the National Hurricane Research Program (NHRP) in 1955 and a dedicated hurricane prediction office, Miami's National Hurricane Center, in 1968. He directed the nation's only hurricane modification experiment, Project Stormfury, starting in 1962. Few people realize that Bob established a tropical weather observatory at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, from which the world-famous Keeling Curve of CO2 concentration is derived.

As accomplished as Simpson was a scientist and leader, he was equally admired for his character and commitment to mentoring countless professionals in meteorology. His wife Joanne Simpson, who died in 2010, is also renowned for her contributions to the field.

Simpson lived in Washington, D.C.
Quoting ncstorm:


06z starts at 4:30am if I'm correct..12 hours from 4:30am? It was already snowing before the 12 hour map you posted..the NWS discussion from Raleigh didnt even mention snow..

here was the 6 hour map in case you overlooked it and would be in the correct time sequence..maybe it will snow in DC where you grew up..



It was a close call. Temps were marginal for snowfall. A little wet snow developed. It's not like there was a major snow event.

But meteorologists should have at least put a chance of rain changing to snow or mixing with snow in the forecast with temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

This happens a lot in the Washington DC area. They are on the rain/snow line more than any location I can think of.
They'll forecast rain and it will snow. They forecast for snow and it rains.
Events similar to the Carrington Event..Wiki

Ice cores containing thin nitrate-rich layers have been analyzed to reconstruct a history of past solar storms predating reliable observations. Data from Greenland ice cores, gathered by Kenneth G. McCracken[12] and others, show evidence that events of this magnitude—as measured by high-energy proton radiation, not geomagnetic effect—occur approximately once per 500 years, with events at least one-fifth as large occurring several times per century.[13] However, more recent work by the ice core community (McCracken et al. are space scientists) shows that nitrate spikes are not a result of solar energetic particle events, so use of this technique is in doubt. 10Be and 14C are considered to be more reliable indicators by the ice core community.[14] These similar but much more extreme cosmic ray events, however, may originate outside the solar system and even outside the galaxy. Less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec. On July 23, 2012 a "Carrington-class" Solar Superstorm (Solar flare, Coronal mass ejection, Solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory missed Earth in orbit. Information about these observations was shared first publicly by NASA on April 28, 2014.

This last Rain event didn't make it down to SoCal, this is all the further it went..... BayFog got some...
Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather ·
Snow potential index: 0/10 (↓) - Looks like it's still going to be a while until local snow lovers have reason to jump for joy.

NWS Disco, Slidell/New Orleans

The cap will begin to erode Monday night as middle-level moisture
finally begins to increase...and expect to see scattered showers
and thunderstorms begin to form by midnight. Synoptically...the
northern stream energy will begin to rapidly deepen over the
plains states...as a strong 150 knot jet descends down The Spine
of The Rockies. During the overnight hours...a slightly more
stable layer in the low levels should prohibit any surface based
convection. However...lapse rates above this stable layer will be
conducive to some deeper thunderstorms forming. These lapse rates
will be favorable for some hail formation in the strongest storms.

By Tuesday morning...conditions will turn more favorable for some
surface based convection to develop. Aloft...the region will be
placed under the right entrance region of a 110 knot jet streak. A
low level jet in excess of 40 knots will produce 0-3km speed
shear values of around 30 knots...and directional shear will also
be quite high with helicity values generally running around
300m2/s2. The largest limiting factor during this period will be
the degree of instability that develops during the day on Tuesday.
If clouds linger through the day...overall instability will be
reduced and the severe potential will be lower. At this
time...expect enough instability with cape values between 500 and
1000 j/kg to be in place to spark off convection. Given the
strength of the cold front and associated trough axis moving
in...a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms could pass
through the region from late Tuesday morning through the afternoon
hours. At this time...all convective modes will be possible if
severe convection is able to form.

Long term...

Rain chances will quickly diminish behind the front...and expect
to see dry conditions and clearing skies take hold during the day
on Wednesday as strong subsidence and dry air advection take hold
of the Gulf south. A very cold airmass will also advect into the area
through the day with 1000-500mb thicknesses dropping to around
5340 meters by Wednesday afternoon. 925mb temperatures will plunge
to around -4 degrees celsius which translates to highs in the
lower 50s Wednesday afternoon. The colder air moving combined with
a strong pressure gradient over the area will bring windy
conditions to the area through the day on Wednesday. These winds
combined with the colder temperatures will make for a very cold
Christmas evening. Fortunately...the main heart of the cold pool will
quickly pull to the east of the area by Thursday. As a
result...temperatures will fall into the 30s and lower 40s
Wednesday night...but should quickly rebound back to more normal
readings by Thursday afternoon in the lower 60s. Deep layer
northwest flow in the middle and upper levels along with strong
ridging at the surface should allow for a sunny and dry Christmas
day.

The ridge axis will shift toward the eastern Seaboard for Friday
and Saturday...with southwest flow once again developing over the
area. A weak shortwave trough axis will also slide through the
area during this time frame. Moisture in the middle-levels and aloft
will be fairly limited...but low level moisture will be sweeping
into the area on the back of the onshore flow. Expect to see
clouds increase for Friday and Saturday...and some light marine
layer showers could also develop each day.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather ·
Snow potential index: 0/10 (↓) - Looks like it's still going to be a while until local snow lovers have reason to jump for joy.


Temperatures in the 60s on Christmas Eve. No ice skating or riding their sleds for sure.

Maybe January will bring the Polar Invasion needed for a big snow storm.
Front now doesn't clear FL until Thursday per 12Z GFS.
2014 now set to be the warmest Global year on record
Quoting 147. Patrap:

2014 now set to be the warmest Global year on record

No surprise there....



Saint Lucia Makes Case for Climate Change Funding

19 Dec 2014

Speaking on behalf of CARICOM, Saint Lucia’s sustainable development minister says the cost of climate change has already exceeded the capacity of the domestic resources of Caribbean nations.
Saint Lucia's sustainable development minister has pleaded for funding for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures for CARICOM Countries.

Dr. James Fletcher spoke on behalf of CARICOM at the recent climate talks in Peru, stating that the threat to the very existence of CARICOM nations is real.

“Many of us are forced to resort to debt financing to deal with our adaptation requirements and the cost of recovering from the damage and destruction left by extreme events,” said Fletcher.

“Furthermore, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events retards our developmental progress as we find ourselves in a constant cycle of rebuilding, rehabilitating, restoring and recovering as opposed to developing and building resilience,” he added.

Farmers and fisherpeople in Saint Lucia say they are already feeling the impact of climate change and say funding would help those who are struggling to make a living.

Anne Marie Augustus, a 56-year-old farmer, lost her entire sweet potato yield to heat in 2014. She says the effects of climate change, such as warmer temperatures and extreme weather events, are wreaking havoc on local families like hers.

“This year my things burned. I think there was too much sun. The sweet potato. I have a big piece (of land for cultivation) of sweet potato, not making one potato. I would have to buy (them), and I want but I cannot get a bag because there is no food at all,” she said.

When Sustainable Development Minister Fletcher addressed climate talks in Peru, he said he was speaking on behalf of people like hardworking farmers and fisherpeople, who are already feeling the effects of climate change.

Husband and wife Jeannette and John Francis have been fishing for three decades. They too say they are experiencing the effects of climate change. They are hoping that the pleas do not fall of deaf ears.

“We are hustling on our own, because we have the bills to pay every month. I believe that the input of the government will help us better. If they can ask for and get help, it will help us a lot,” said Jeannette Francis.

Fletcher said the cost of climate change has already exceeded the capacity of the domestic resources of Caribbean nations.

For small island states like Saint Lucia, there is an urgent need to boost climate change resilience and combat the effects of climate change.

The governments of the Caribbean say they know what needs to be done, and what is needed now is the funding to make it possible.


Quoting LargoFl:
yes im expecting 4-5 inches out of this coming storm,just hope those predicted straight line winds aren't too bad.
I really doubt you're going to see anywhere near 4-5" from the rain on Tuesday/Wednesday. The map shows a rain rate of 4 MM per hour, or about 0.16", which is about right for a total rainfall of about an inch. You might get some more if convection develops and you're right under a good cell, but this is not going to be a widespread heavy rainfall event.
BTW, my avatar along with several others has disappeared again. Are others seeing this kind of thing. I know there was a problem with this yesterday.
aint no love for el paso.....some serious precip for the northwest.......


Quoting 151. sar2401:

BTW, my avatar along with several others has disappeared again. Are others seeing this kind of thing. I know there was a problem with this yesterday.

I just noticed mine was missing. It was there earlier. Might be time to do this right...
Quoting hydrus:
Events similar to the Carrington Event..Wiki

Ice cores containing thin nitrate-rich layers have been analyzed to reconstruct a history of past solar storms predating reliable observations. Data from Greenland ice cores, gathered by Kenneth G. McCracken[12] and others, show evidence that events of this magnitude—as measured by high-energy proton radiation, not geomagnetic effect—occur approximately once per 500 years, with events at least one-fifth as large occurring several times per century.[13] However, more recent work by the ice core community (McCracken et al. are space scientists) shows that nitrate spikes are not a result of solar energetic particle events, so use of this technique is in doubt. 10Be and 14C are considered to be more reliable indicators by the ice core community.[14] These similar but much more extreme cosmic ray events, however, may originate outside the solar system and even outside the galaxy. Less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. The March 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec. On July 23, 2012 a "Carrington-class" Solar Superstorm (Solar flare, Coronal mass ejection, Solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory missed Earth in orbit. Information about these observations was shared first publicly by NASA on April 28, 2014.
Good morning Hydrus. It doesn't seem like the CME yesterday was as bad as what was predicted. I didn't note any HF radio blackouts although propagation on 20 meters wasn't too good, which may have been related to the flare. There was a great opening on VHF last night. I was able to talk to another ham in Nashville TN from here last night on simplex 146.52 MHz, about 325 miles, which is nearly the maximum distance on VHF. It was a short opening caused by thermal ducting that caused this though, not the flare. One of these days, we will get a repeat of the Carrington event. It's going to be quite a test for all the solid state non-shielded electronics we all use everyday.
Quoting PedleyCA:

I just noticed mine was missing. It was there earlier. Might be time to do this right...
For now, at least, yours and mine is visible again. I've seen this happen when I'm about to run out of free RAM but I have plenty available right now. Must be something happening on the WU servers.
Quoting 145. Sfloridacat5:



Temperatures in the 60s on Christmas Eve. No ice skating or riding their sleds for sure.

Maybe January will bring the Polar Invasion needed for a big snow storm.
Honestly I'm not believing anything until I see accumulating snow outside with my own big green eyes.Everything always seems to be 10 days away .The models have been horrible.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Honestly I'm not believing anything until I see accumulating snow outside with my own big green eyes.Everything always seems to be 10 days away .The models have been horrible.


Yeah, DC is pretty fickle when it comes to snow. Some years it seems like it snows every week. Then there are the years it just doesn't snow at all. I hated those years.
158. MahFL
The blob is closing in on SW FL :

Quoting 150. sar2401:
I really doubt you're going to see anywhere near 4-5" from the rain on Tuesday/Wednesday. The map shows a rain rate of 4 MM per hour, or about 0.16", which is about right for a total rainfall of about an inch. You might get some more if convection develops and you're right under a good cell, but this is not going to be a widespread heavy rainfall event.


Maybe you missed the HPC map from this morning. There is going to be an issue with training of cells and where ever this training event set up Wednesday now it appears some areas are going to get atleast 4" to 5" of rain and maybe a 6" to 7" amount across western FL from Tampa north up towards Gainesville.
Last week, the CFS was forecasting an above-average January for the East Coast, and much of the United States. This week, the CFS shows well below-average temperatures, with departures 4-5C below average across the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.

Just another example of how wild the CFS is (although its forecast for cold is one I agree with)...

Quoting 161. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Last week, the CFS was forecasting an above-average January for the East Coast, and much of the United States. This week, the CFS shows well below-average temperatures, with departures 4-5C below average across the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.

Just another example of how wild the CFS is (although its forecast for cold is one I agree with)...



It hasn't been just the CFS either as most models have been struggling lately with bringing cold airmasses in to the US but it does appear that come the 1st of January most of the US turns cold.

Also a wet pattern is now underway across the SE US which could last several weeks.

Sar should be happy to see this.


Quoting 155. sar2401:

For now, at least, yours and mine is visible again. I've seen this happen when I'm about to run out of free RAM but I have plenty available right now. Must be something happening on the WU servers.

RAM isn't a problem here. It is something with WU's servers, or their new site(sic)....
hr 120 12z gfs run

xmas day dec 25 12:00
hr 96 gfs run
dec 24 xmas eve 12:00

by end of the run towards end of the year
seems we get something maybe more typical for a winter solution
with low pressure over north texas
way way out seems we got a cold start ahead for the new year stay tuned

169. wxmod
Near Fukushima power plant, earthquake:
M 5.9 - 49km E of Namie, Japan
Quoting 169. wxmod:

Near Fukushima power plant, earthquake:
M 5.9 - 49km E of Namie, Japan
just now
Gem is probably more believable rainfall wise...............................
12Z GFS Dominant Precip Type

Christmas Eve:




Christmas Morning:

Good afternoon all...
I really wish that WU would bring back the sidebar that showed who is posting what and where. Maybe if more of us would write in and request this, they will bring it back.
Sitting in overcast ATL waiting for my flight back to EYW.


light snow here
There's a little system on the 28th that shows a little shot of snow for DC.
At least it's something.

Dr. Greg Forbes
2 hrs ·
Latest computer runs are a little slower (farther west) with Tuesday's weather system. Instability is limited but shear is enough for spotty damaging gusts and possibly a few tornadoes.
TUESDAY
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in LA,northeast, central, and south MS, west and south AL. TORCON - 3. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm overnight in AL, GA, FL panhandle. TORCON - 2
WEDNESDAY - CHRISTMAS EVE
The cold front will not have reached the East Coast, and low-level winds will be enough for a damaging gust if widespread rain does not minimize instability. A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms in the FL peninsula, southeast GA, east SC, central and east NC, central and east VA, central MD. TORCON - 2
A lot of action at the beach today. People taking advantage of the beautiful weather. Also, a lot of people in town for the holidays.
I don't think there will be too many people on the beach Wednesday with the expected rain.

Interesting.

GFS 12Z SNOW WATER EQ. HR 120 DEC 25 12UTC

NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% to 65% chance of minor geomagnetic storms this weekend when a pair of CMEs is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after nightfall.



James Spann
2 hrs ·

Analog data suggests there will be a risk of severe weather across parts of the Deep South on Tuesday…
Quoting 168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

way way out seems we got a cold start ahead for the new year stay tuned


Did you see this Keep...Great stuff and info about the upcoming winter weather...Link
short animation of flare last night

December 20, 2014 @ 15:35 UTC

Solar Activity Update

Good morning. Below is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Saturday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was high. Region 2242 was responsible for the most noteworthy event during the past day, a strong X1.8 solar flare peaking at 00:27 UTC (Dec 20). The event was responsible for a coronal mass ejection (CME) that was directed to the southwest and does not appear to contain a prominent Earth directed component. Both regions 2241 and in particular, region 2242, will each remain a threat for moderate to strong solar flares during the next 24-48 hours. All other regions remain stable. New sunspot 2244 continues to form in the southeast quadrant, but is not yet considered a major threat for strong solar flares.

Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest spaceweather data and imagery.


Quoting 194. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

short animation of flare last night




LASCO C3 (2014-12-19 21:30:21 - 2014-12-20 09:18:05 UTC)

Thats is actual LASCO C 3 imagery from yesterday.

The CFS Forecast has malfunctioned yesterday. The Week 1 and week 2, as well as the week 3 and week 4 forecast, showed below average temperatures all over the world. That model run was on December 19. For the united states, it showed below average temperatures while Alaska showed warmer, but still below average, temperatures. If you want proof, here it is



Quoting 193. hydrus:

Did you see this Keep...Great stuff and info about the upcoming winter weather...Link
looking like a more normal winter pattern storms in south tracking east then ne and cold air feeding them along there tracks

its winter should start too look and feel as such soon after xmas eve warm up moves on
I checked wundermaps for the chances of snow, and it showed a little bit of snow for Little Rock on December 25 0000 UTC. Alabama might get some snow. Northwestern Louisiana might get snow flurries, but it might not be much. Miami's gonna be getting highs in the upper 60s according to the GFS Model.
Quoting 193. hydrus:

Did you see this Keep...Great stuff and info about the upcoming winter weather...Link

Below we show the daily temperature difference between those with observed high October Eurasian snow cover minus low October Eurasian snow cover from September 1 through February 28 in degrees Celsius. Temperature differences are shown in shading and those differences that are found to be statistically significant are outlined by a black contour. This is not meant to be a forecast but instead shows the general progression of the temperature anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere based on October Eurasian snow cover variability alone.

Link
12z gfs anim 850 mb run

Quoting hydrus:
It looks like your maps show precipitation in kilograms per meter squared? Is there some way to convert that into millimeters? I don't have a clue if something like 25 kilograms per square meter is a lot or not.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Below we show the daily temperature difference between those with observed high October Eurasian snow cover minus low October Eurasian snow cover from September 1 through February 28 in degrees Celsius. Temperature differences are shown in shading and those differences that are found to be statistically significant are outlined by a black contour. This is not meant to be a forecast but instead shows the general progression of the temperature anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere based on October Eurasian snow cover variability alone.
Keep, that's a really interesting animation but it's killing my ability to load a page. Can you please change that to a link instead of showing the animation in line?
Quoting 202. sar2401:

It looks like your maps show precipitation in kilograms per meter squared? Is there some way to convert that into millimeters? I don't have a clue if something like 25 kilograms per square meter is a lot or not.
20 mm for the event sar that's what it looks like for ya 0.70 inches or there abouts maybe an inch if ya get a boomer passing over
Quoting 203. sar2401:

Keep, that's a really interesting animation but it's killing my ability to load a page. Can you please change that to a link instead of showing the animation in line?
sure done
now you will have to remove it from your comment as well I guess
Quoting 176. Sfloridacat5:

There's a little system on the 28th that shows a little shot of snow for DC.
At least it's something.

Once again I'am not believing anything until I see it falling with my own eyes.
Quoting 207. washingtonian115:

Once again I'am not believing anything until I see it falling with my own eyes.
No model can be trusted.
Quoting 202. sar2401:

It looks like your maps show precipitation in kilograms per meter squared? Is there some way to convert that into millimeters? I don't have a clue if something like 25 kilograms per square meter is a lot or not.


Sar, it's easy. 1 kg/m^2 of rainfall is equivalent to 1 mm. See this.

(Edit: spelling correction)

27 more hours of Fall.
Quoting DeepSouthUS:
I checked wundermaps for the chances of snow, and it showed a little bit of snow for Little Rock on December 25 0000 UTC. Alabama might get some snow. Northwestern Louisiana might get snow flurries, but it might not be much. Miami's gonna be getting highs in the upper 60s according to the GFS Model.
It's possible that far north Alabama might pick up a light dusting early
Wednesday morning but it's all dependent on how close to north Alabama the low travels and whether the CAA gets here before the moisture available leaves. This whole setup is highly dependent on how amplified the low gets, the exact path, and how the cold air to the north phases with the low and warm air advection to the south. Temperatures in north Alabama should be at least in the mid-60's Tuesday, so the cold air is going to really have to work for any accumulating snow can begin. This is one of those really tricky Gulf low scenarios, and a change in track of even 100 miles can mean big changes in the sensible weather. Tuesday and Wednesday should be interesting, with a chance of severe thunderstorms in south Alabama and snow in north Alabama.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sure done
Thanks. Things are back to normal now. :-)
Quoting LAbonbon:


Sar, it's easy. 1 kg/m^2 of rainfall is equaivalent to 1 mm. See this.

Very good. So 25 Kg per meter squared is equal to about 25 mm of rain, or about 0.98 inches. I wish I was better at all this metric stuff.
Quoting 211. sar2401:

It's possible that far north Alabama might pick up a light dusting early
Wednesday morning but it's all dependent on how close to north Alabama the low travels and whether the CAA gets here before the moisture available leaves. This whole setup is highly dependent on how amplified the low gets, the exact path, and how the cold air to the north phases with the low and warm air advection to the south. Temperatures in north Alabama should be at least in the mid-60's Tuesday, so the cold air is going to really have to work for any accumulating snow can begin. This is one of those really tricky Gulf low scenarios, and a change in track of even 100 miles can mean big changes in the sensible weather. Tuesday and Wednesday should be interesting, with a chance of severe thunderstorms in south Alabama and snow in north Alabama.


Who was the fellow who blogged a snow request to Santa the other day, saying he'd been a good boy? He's from northern Georgia, I believe. Perhaps he'll get his wish?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
now you will have to remove it from your comment as well I guess
Keep, the attachments don't get carried over in a quote using Classic. Do you see it in my quote on the new site? If so, I'll log in on the new site and remove it.
Quoting 215. sar2401:

Keep, the attachments don't get carried over in a quote using Classic. Do you see it in my quote on the new site? If so, I'll log in on the new site and remove it.
yeah u can see it its ok for me got a very fast computer no slow down but that may not be the case for someone else
Quoting LAbonbon:


Who was the fellow who blogged a snow request to Santa the other day, saying he'd been a good boy? He's from northern Georgia, I believe. Perhaps he'll get his wish?
LOL. I do remember seeing it but he's a new member and I don't remember his handle. I've been a (relatively) good boy too so I'm hoping Santa brings me some rain for Christmas. Did you ever get much when the last "storm" passed thought your neck of the woods? I got 0.47", not exactly a toad choker, but it's a start. If I could luck out and get another inch, I'd only be about two inches below normal for the month. It looks like overnight lows stay above freezing through all of Christmas week so no snow for me. Maybe January gives a chance for a little white stuff.
Quoting 213. sar2401:

Very good. So 25 Kg per meter squared is equal to about 25 mm of rain, or about 0.98 inches. I wish I was better at all this metric stuff.


It's not your fault. Blame it on the government...

Map of countries officially not using the metric system


Quoting washingtonian115:
Once again I'am not believing anything until I see it falling with my own eyes.


That reminds me of a funny thing that happened one night watching the evening news.

Willard Scott was a local weather man when I was a kid living in D.C.
He would frequently do the weather live from outside the news station (rain or shine).

One night while doing his evening forecast it started snowing like crazy.
When I saw the snow live on T.V., I ran to the back of our house and turned on the outside light so I could see (dark-night). I flipped the switch and it was snowing really hard. We ended up getting about 8" of snow that night.




Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah u can see it its ok for me got a very fast computer no slow down but that may not be the case for someone else
No problem, went over to the new site and deleted the link from the quote. I have no idea why the site designers decided including images in quotes was a good idea. You get a couple of people quoting a comment with a processor intensive graphic and my old clunker just sits there and chugs for about five minutes until it finally loads. My laptop is getting ready to give up the ghost so maybe I can upgrade soon and join the 21st century. :-)
North Florida is definitely not tropical, or even a sub-tropical climate.
Quoting 218. sar2401:

LOL. I do remember seeing it but he's a new member and I don't remember his handle. I've been a (relatively) good boy too so I'm hoping Santa brings me some rain for Christmas. Did you ever get much when the last "storm" passed thought your neck of the woods? I got 0.47", not exactly a toad choker, but it's a start. If I could luck out and get another inch, I'd only be about two inches below normal for the month. It looks like overnight lows stay above freezing through all of Christmas week so no snow for me. Maybe January gives a chance for a little white stuff.


2.47" at the Baton Rouge airport, not sure what I got here, but at least 2", I'd guess. There were a couple of readings over near Houston that topped 5".

Based on the NWS Drought Briefing I posted yesterday, SE Louisiana would need 3-6" above normal precip to offset ongoing drought conditions, and MS coastal counties would need 6-9". Not sure if you saw it, but it does incorporate AL, though it's mainly focused on LA and MS. In case you're interested, here's the briefing.

Looks like you may be getting some rain this week...maybe your 'relatively' good behavior will pay off :)
Hey gang, here another "winter"greeting from Germany, today containing the trail of decent thunderstorms coming in from the north and crossing the northern part of Germany, lol.



Thunderstorm with graupel and hail east of Berlin today:


No "dreaming of a white Christmas" at all, because it should be very mild next week ... But nevertheless, current GFS runs and some others as well promise us at least a light winterly intermezzo in the last week of the year. You spot the one and only snow flake in this little forecast below for my area near Frankfurt? ;-)



Afterwards temps may go up once again, according to GFS ensembles (and other models)

Quoting LAbonbon:


It's not your fault. Blame it on the government...

Map of countries officially not using the metric system


Yeah, it's really kind of ridiculous in this day and age. My formal education ended in 1978 after my first year of grad school. Metrics were just a faint glimmer on the horizon then. It has caused me no end of trouble once I got into construction project management. I was involved in building a large thermal power plant in the early 90's. The company that I consulted for sent the preliminary drawings to India to get a set of finals back. The preliminary drawings were in inches and the guys in India just assumed they were metric. They completed the drawings and sent them back. Our guys assumed they were still in inches and when they started doing the piping and electrical detailed drawings to look for construction interference, none of the dimensions made any sense, but the legend said they were in inches. They weren't, of course, and we ran into a month's delay so the design engineers could produce another whole set of drawings in inches after recalculating everything on the Indian drawings from metric to inches. It cost us about $30,000 in labor and delay payments to other subs. I don't think most people understand the costs of us still using inch measurement.
Persistently rainy and chilly time here in the NW Panhandle.
Quoting 220. LAbonbon:



It's not your fault. Blame it on the government...

Map of countries officially not using the metric system




I use both forms


Quoting opal92nwf:
North Florida is definitely not tropical, or even a sub-tropical climate.


That's a shame. Your grass is also having some trouble dealing with the weather.

Our coldest night so far this season has been 46 degrees here in Fort Myers.

6 Plant Hardiness Zones in Florida.



Quoting 228. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I use both forms





I do as well, but frankly I think in English units. I'm guessing that's the case for many Americans, even if we learned both systems throughout our schooling.
The 12z ECMWF has a classic west-based negative NAO during the day 5-10 period. With cold air likely to overspread the United States--at least, east of the Rockies--to start the New Year, the first week of January looks active across the East.

Quoting LAbonbon:


2.47" at the Baton Rouge airport, not sure what I got here, but at least 2", I'd guess. There were a couple of readings over near Houston that topped 5".

Based on the NWS Drought Briefing I posted yesterday, SE Louisiana would need 3-6" above normal precip to offset ongoing drought conditions, and MS coastal counties would need 6-9". Not sure if you saw it, but it does incorporate AL, though it's mainly focused on LA and MS. In case you're interested, here's the briefing.

Looks like you may be getting some rain this week...maybe your 'relatively' good behavior will pay off :)
Nice. Unfortunately, the blob ran into the dry air here, with rainfall showing on radar for about 10 hours before it actually started to hit the ground. I hadn't seen the one you posted but I was looking at the Alabama drought page earlier and it looks like we are in the same sad shape as you. We are now entering out tenth winter of below average rainfall. The only thing that saved the farmers this year was our 15" of rain in one day on April 30. That was enough to recharge the aquifers and carry them through yet another abnormally dry summer. There seems to be some correlation between our lack of tropical storms and our dry winters. The lack of tropical storms also impacts our normal rainfall in summer, so the farmers take a double hit. I won't wish too hard for rain lest we get another flood but a few drops now and then shouldn't be too hard a job for Santa. :-)
Quoting 231. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z ECMWF has a classic west-based negative NAO during the day 5-10 period. With cold air likely to overspread the United States--at least, east of the Rockies--to start the New Year, the first week of January looks active across the East.



I've been hearing that this sort of thing is going to happen for weeks now, I really hope the pattern does change.
Quoting 223. opal92nwf:

North Florida is definitely not tropical, or even a sub-tropical climate.

thinking more of a deciduous zone culivation is best less lost cost wise with plant life in that region
Quoting barbamz:
Hey gang, here another "winter"greeting from Germany, today containing the trail of decent thunderstorms coming in from the north and crossing the northern part of Germany, lol.



Thunderstorm with graupel and hail east of Berlin today:


No "dreaming of a white Christmas" at all, because it should be very mild next week ... But nevertheless, current GFS runs and some others as well promise us at least a light winterly intermezzo in the last week of the year. You spot the one and only snow flake in this little forecast below for my area near Frankfurt? ;-)



Afterwards temps may go up once again, according to GFS ensembles (and other models)

Humph! Thunderstorms in Germany when you should have snow and a cold drizzle in Alabama when we should have thunderstorms. At least it looks like you have a shot at some snow for New Years week, or at least some colder temperatures.
Quoting 233. opal92nwf:


I've been hearing that this sort of thing is going to happen for weeks now, I really hope the pattern does change.

That's because this pattern change has been well predicted; a lot of people began talking about it during the first week of the month. Negative 200mb VP anomalies (representing the MJO and/or kelvin waves) progressing into the West Hemisphere during the winter months is well-correlated to Central/East USA cold. A late December pattern shift is also in agreement with the analogs for this winter season.
Quoting opal92nwf:

I've been hearing that this sort of thing is going to happen for weeks now, I really hope the pattern does change.
I certainly hope the pattern is going to change for the New Year but the NAO has stayed strongly positive in the face of weekly forecasts of it dipping into negative territory. The NAO is now as positive as it has been in the last four months and it's going to take more than 10 days to push it negative IMHO. The NAO isn't the only thing that controls weather but it's very rare for us to have significant outbreak of cold air and any chance for for snow as long as the NAO remains this positive.



Quoting 230. LAbonbon:



I do as well, but frankly I think in English units. I'm guessing that's the case for many Americans, even if we learned both systems throughout our schooling.


I am from Canada
I started using the system in 1979
just as I entered high school
when I finished at grade 11 yeah that was the highest grade then
they began to introduce the credit system instead of percentage
system and the additional grades 12 and 13 after I had graduated the old system



Seeing that this map is a little old, these dates may need to be adjusted a bit.
Quoting 213. sar2401:

Very good. So 25 Kg per meter squared is equal to about 25 mm of rain, or about 0.98 inches. I wish I was better at all this metric stuff.
It's not "about", it is equal to 25 mm.
Proof: 1 mm is 1/1000 of a meter so 1000 x 1000 = 1 000 000 square millimeters. But that's not very convenient, let's use cubic centimeters instead. 100 x 100 x 1 = 10 000 cc, since we know 1 cc of water weighs 1 g, then a depth of water weighing 1 g/cc would equal 10 000 g or 10 Kg. Since 1 cm is 10 mm, then 1 mm will weigh 1000g or 1 Kg.
So for every mm of water spread over a surface of one square meter it will weigh 1 Kg.
Quoting 237. sar2401:

I certainly hope the pattern is going to change for the New Year but the NAO has stayed strongly positive in the face of weekly forecasts of it dipping into negative territory. The NAO is now as positive as it has been in the last four months and it's going to take more than 10 days to push it negative IMHO. The NAO isn't the only thing that controls weather but it's very rare for us to have significant outbreak of cold air and any chance for for snow as long as the NAO remains this positive.





That is not true. Most of last winter was dictated by a positive NAO, yet bitter cold encompassed the United States during that time. A negative NAO tends to enhance the potential for snow across the East.
Here's a pretty cool climatology map. Click on any state and it will show the major cities in that state.
Then click on the city and it will bring up the climatology (highs, lows, rain, snow, etc) for that location.

Link
Quoting 240. bwtranch:

It's not "about", it is equal to 25 mm.
Proof: 1 mm is 1/1000 of a meter so 1000 x 1000 = 1 000 000 square millimeters. But that's not very convenient, let's use cubic centimeters instead. 100 x 100 x 1 = 10 000 cc, since we know 1 cc of water weighs 1 g, then a depth of water weighing 1 g/cc would equal 10 000 g or 10 Kg. Since 1 cm is 10 mm, then 1 mm will weigh 1000g or 1 Kg.


The density of water is about 1 g / cm^3. It varies with temperature and other factors.
Raw day on NC coastline.
Quoting 245. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Brr.


Good link if you do not already have it...Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Brr.



Old Faithful Geyser Streaming Webcam. Link

It's snowing there right now.
Old Faithful is a snow making machine in those sub zero temperatures.




Quoting 234. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thinking more of a deciduous zone culivation is best less lost cost wise with plant life in that region

People got that "Florida fever" even though the Panhandle is basically no different than southern AL or GA. Locals around my area joke that this is really "LA" lower Alabama.
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco...

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER AT THIS TIME BUT WITH
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DO SEEM TO SLOW THE FROPA SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. IF THIS TRENDING CONTINUES...THE BEST FORCING COULD
ARRIVE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. A COUPLE OF
MITIGATING FACTORS AT THIS TIME ARE THE PROPENSITY FOR PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHIFTING THE UPPER
JET MAX FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
HOWEVER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
MORNING WITH A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AS MOST OF THE AREA MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 60S WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THIS
HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST HOWEVER BRINGING A RETURN TO
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
Quoting 221. Sfloridacat5:



That reminds me of a funny thing that happened one night watching the evening news.

Willard Scott was a local weather man when I was a kid living in D.C.
He would frequently do the weather live from outside the news station (rain or shine).

One night while doing his evening forecast it started snowing like crazy.
When I saw the snow live on T.V., I ran to the back of our house and turned on the outside light so I could see (dark-night). I flipped the switch and it was snowing really hard. We ended up getting about 8" of snow that night.







Loved Willard Scott - he wished our dear neighbor Happy Birthday when Mr. Underwood turned 100 back in the 1970s. Think Mr. Underwood got a bigger kick out of Willard Scott's Birthday wishes than the letter from President Nixon congratulating him on his birthday. Mr. Underwood grew up on a farm that stretched from Tenley Circle to American University and the Potomac River. Got to hug Willard when our 5th grade class toured the station - ?WTOP?
Quoting stormygace:


Loved Willard Scott - he wished our dear neighbor Happy Birthday when Mr. Underwood turned 100 back in the 1970s. Think Mr. Underwood got a bigger kick out of Willard Scott's Birthday wishes than the letter from President Nixon congratulating him on his birthday. Mr. Underwood grew up on a farm that stretched from Tenley Circle to American University and the Potomac River. Got to hug Willard when our 5th grade class toured the station - ?WTOP?


Willard Scott is frequently seen around here. He has a house out on Captiva or Sanible Island (I think he switched homes there) just off the coast of Fort Myers.
NWS Tampa...................SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AND
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH INTO
TAMPA BAY. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS MOVING OVER
COOLER GULF WATERS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY FROM THE PINELLAS COUNTY COAST NORTH ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. MOVING EAST DURING THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUE TO BE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH
BETWEEN THE MODELS. OVERALL THE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA REMAINS PRETTY
MUCH ON TRACK. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA LEADING TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT...70-90
PERCENT...FOR THE NATURE COAST TAPERING DOWN TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND THEN 60 PERCENT FAR NORTH TO 30 PERCENT
SOUTH ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
ALONG WITH THE THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY SO WE STILL COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
IS WHERE THE WEATHER FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING AS THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EAST. MODELS ARE INDICATING
VARYING STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED FEATURES
DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ACROSS THE
REGION DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLER
DRIER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

Quoting 249. opal92nwf:


People got that "Florida fever" even though the Panhandle is basically no different than southern AL or GA. Locals around my area joke that this is really "LA" lower Alabama.
LOL Opal
I'm starting to doubt we are going to see it. Maybe a short-lived deep freeze followed by above average temps. I think east of the Mississippi is in for a yo-yo pattern. My own personal experience is that when you have an up and down pattern, it always warms up for the storm (rain), followed by the cold air on the backside of the storms. I'm not going to be surprised if we see a significant damaging ice event north of the Mason-Dixon this winter.

Quoting 145. Sfloridacat5:



Temperatures in the 60s on Christmas Eve. No ice skating or riding their sleds for sure.

Maybe January will bring the Polar Invasion needed for a big snow storm.
18Z GFS at 54 hours
The GFS is showing two moisture feeds moving into Florida and the S.E.

I'll give Scott some credit for calling the moisture feed from the Caribbean. He did call that several days ago.
It also showing some rain for my location on Monday. The main batch of rain will come later (Wednesday/Thursday).

Quoting 213. sar2401:

Very good. So 25 Kg per meter squared is equal to about 25 mm of rain, or about 0.98 inches. I wish I was better at all this metric stuff.


Wish we in the US used the metric system like everyone else... But hey, we gotta be different. Makes math WAY too easy and who would want that?

We could go back to thinking fuel was really cheap if we paid by the liter. Oklahoma would be around 50 cents a liter right now for regular. Maybe even less.

Next you will want do away with daylight savings time...
Quoting 244. DCSwithunderscores:



The density of water is about 1 g / cm^3. It varies with temperature and other factors.
The density of pure water is, by definition 1 g/cc at maximum density of 4C.
Rainwater is practically pure and temperature differences can largely be ignored in meteorological work.
Even at 40C it's 0.992 g/cc , and very much closer at temperatures in which precipitation falls, so the degree of error is totally canceled out by observational inaccuracy.
It looks like a nice little snowstorm for the St. Louis area the right before Christmas.
How are sst looking for 2015 Atlantic hurricane season
I'm hoping that rain fills into S.W. Florida. 18Z GFS is only showing around 1" for my location just south of Fort Myers.

The focus of the rain is still aimed at the Big Bend area.
18z GFS snowfall - Dec. 26th.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That is not true. Most of last winter was dictated by a positive NAO, yet bitter cold encompassed the United States during that time. A negative NAO tends to enhance the potential for snow across the East.
I was writing about the Southeast, TA, not the East. The East and Northeast above me are much closer the sources of cold air, and outbreaks there have a different pattern than cold air making it down here. Although it's common they we may see a few cold days in a winter, it's uncommon for us to get a combination of cold air and snow unless the NAO goes negative, since that's one of the things needed to get a southern low and northern low to phase. IIRC, our one real good outbreak of cold air and snow last January coincided with the NAO going slightly negative for about a week.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I'm hoping that rain fills into S.W. Florida. 18Z GFS is only showing around 1" for my location just south of Fort Myers.

The focus of the rain is still aimed at the Big Bend area.
Unfortunately for you and me, I suspect that map is going to turn out to be fairly accurate. The low is going to transit too far south of me and too far north of you, leaving us with pretty minimal rainfall. It's almost impossible to get heavy rain here unless the low goes inland just to the west or gets on land in the Panhandle. For you, the convective blob needs a low focused more at central Florida for you to get heavy rain. We shall see, since the low is still four days out, and there's still some significant timing and path issues, but the chance of us getting more than about a half inch of rain for either of us isn't looking hopeful.
Quoting Dakster:


Wish we in the US used the metric system like everyone else... But hey, we gotta be different. Makes math WAY too easy and who would want that?

We could go back to thinking fuel was really cheap if we paid by the liter. Oklahoma would be around 50 cents a liter right now for regular. Maybe even less.

Next you will want do away with daylight savings time...
Actually, I would like to do away with daylight saving time...:-)

The funny thing is how many of of our modern guns and ammo aren't in metric? Even some of the knuckle draggers seem to get that.
Quoting 260. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How are sst looking for 2015 Atlantic hurricane season
looking like not much maybe late march early april we start looking at sst's as for where they are for storm season then may be better idea

winter is normally the off season for this stuff
Quoting 258. bwtranch:

The density of pure water is, by definition 1 g/cc at maximum density of 4C.
Rainwater is practically pure and temperature differences can largely be ignored in meteorological work.
Even at 40C it's 0.992 g/cc , and very much closer at temperatures in which precipitation falls, so the degree of error is totally canceled out by observational inaccuracy.


The density of water is not by definition 1 g / cm^3 at 4 C. The kg is defined in terms of the mass of the International Prototype of the Kilogram. The original prototype kilogram had a mass that was very close to the mass of 1.000025 liters of water at 4 C. The metre is defined in terms of the distance that light travels in a vacuum over a certain time interval. The Celsius scale is defined in terms of absolute 0 and the triple point of water.

The density of pure water at 4 C is a measured value. It is about 0.9999999985 g / cm^3. Water is at its maximum density at about 4 C, but not at exactly 4 C.

Yes, within the error of the normal measurement of rainfall we can use that, but it isn't exact.
Quoting 267. sar2401:

Actually, I would like to do away with daylight saving time...:-)

The funny thing is how many of of our modern guns and ammo aren't in metric? Even some of the knuckle draggers seem to get that.


Yes, Yes, and yes...
Quoting 257. Dakster:



Wish we in the US used the metric system like everyone else... But hey, we gotta be different. Makes math WAY too easy and who would want that?

We could go back to thinking fuel was really cheap if we paid by the liter. Oklahoma would be around 50 cents a liter right now for regular. Maybe even less.

Next you will want do away with daylight savings time...


I just picture the standard inch as determined by three barleycorns laid end to end in the 16'th century (probably the standard was planted the following spring). In reality it's more precise than that, exactly 25.4mm now.
The standard meter in turn is the distance traveled by light in a vacuum in 1/299,792,458 of a second. THe original less precise definition was one ten millionth of the distance from the pole to the equator in the 18'th century which still made much more sense than the length of three barleycorns laid end to end.

A more colloquial english unit is the "butt" commonly referred to in slang as "buttload" by most people who don't realize it's a real unit of volume.. about 133 gallons

And the english unit of mass is NOT the pound (that's a force) It is the slug.. that mass which accelerates one fps**2 from a force of one pound. A slug of stuff weighs about 32 pounds.



Quoting 226. sar2401:

Yeah, it's really kind of ridiculous in this day and age. My formal education ended in 1978 after my first year of grad school. Metrics were just a faint glimmer on the horizon then. It has caused me no end of trouble once I got into construction project management. I was involved in building a large thermal power plant in the early 90's. The company that I consulted for sent the preliminary drawings to India to get a set of finals back. The preliminary drawings were in inches and the guys in India just assumed they were metric. They completed the drawings and sent them back. Our guys assumed they were still in inches and when they started doing the piping and electrical detailed drawings to look for construction interference, none of the dimensions made any sense, but the legend said they were in inches. They weren't, of course, and we ran into a month's delay so the design engineers could produce another whole set of drawings in inches after recalculating everything on the Indian drawings from metric to inches. It cost us about $30,000 in labor and delay payments to other subs. I don't think most people understand the costs of us still using inch measurement.


Metric had formed a solid beachhead by the early 70s when I was in middle school. But it never advanced beyond that. All of my significant science schoolwork was in metric. My father (belgian, raised in Haiti as son of the belgian consul there) went to U Minn for college, used metric in school in the 30s and was shocked to see the miserable British system in his physics and engineering problem sets in U.S university in the mid 40s. He told me whenever he saw this, he converted the problem statement to metric, worked it in metric and then converted back.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I just picture the standard inch as determined by three barleycorns laid end to end in the 16'th century (probably the standard was planted the following spring). In reality it's more precise than that, exactly 25.4mm now.
The standard meter in turn is the distance traveled by light in a vacuum in 1/299,792,458 of a second. THe original less precise definition was one ten millionth of the distance from the pole to the equator in the 18'th century which still made much more sense than the length of three barleycorns laid end to end.

A more colloquial english unit is the "butt" commonly referred to in slang as "buttload" by most people who don't realize it's a real unit of volume.. about 133 gallons

And the english unit of mass is NOT the pound (that's a force) It is the slug.. that mass which accelerates one fps**2 from a force of one pound. A slug of stuff weighs about 32 pounds.



I've never even seen a barleycorn, so that wouldn't do me much good. :-)
Quoting sar2401:
Unfortunately for you and me, I suspect that map is going to turn out to be fairly accurate. The low is going to transit too far south of me and too far north of you, leaving us with pretty minimal rainfall. It's almost impossible to get heavy rain here unless the low goes inland just to the west or gets on land in the Panhandle. For you, the convective blob needs a low focused more at central Florida for you to get heavy rain. We shall see, since the low is still four days out, and there's still some significant timing and path issues, but the chance of us getting more than about a half inch of rain for either of us isn't looking hopeful.


I agree. Based on the models, along with December climatology, the heavier rain should fall across northern Florida.

20 days with only .01" of rain here. We are one of the areas in Florida that would really benefit from several inches of rain.
Quoting 230. LAbonbon:



I do as well, but frankly I think in English units. I'm guessing that's the case for many Americans, even if we learned both systems throughout our schooling.


The only "English" unit I prefer is the degree F and that's just for precision. 34F tells me more than 1C about melting potential and 32F tells me it's pretty close to freezing; 0C not as precise. It's not a false precision. We can easily measure to this level.
The very talented Marko Korošec over at 500px.com has posted some beautiful photgraphs of amazing rime ice formations (fog + wind + cold) near the ski area on Slovenia's Mount Javornik. Here are a pair:

awesome!

awesome!

Check out Marko's gallery for all his weather images, including this sprite-filled beauty from Italy:

awesome!
Looks similar to the late November severe weather event, hopefully the 200mb divergence can again overcome the lack of instability. Last event created a 118 mile semi-continuous tornado in Georgia.

That Placement <3


Just saw the temperature anomalies for the US. Every state except Florida (Of course, Florida is the only place where real winter happens only 0.01% of the time) is going to be in below average temperatures.





Of course this cold weather will be 10 days away (The magic number 10). The forecast can change during those 10 days.

Further along the timeframe, even Florida (North and Central) will be in below average temperatures, while South Florida has above average temperatures.

Notice that they've backed down on the megafreeze? Did you know that Seattle's high temperatures were forecast to be at 9 degrees and it's lows would be at -10 degrees at 12z. On the 18z, it looks like they've backed down on the megafreeze. It'll still be cold, but not as bitterly cold as what they forecasted this far out.

Quoting 289. DeepSouthUS:

Just saw the temperature anomalies for the US. Every state except Florida (Of course, Florida is the only place where real winter happens only 0.01% of the time) is going to be in below average temperatures.





Of course this cold weather will be 10 days away (The magic number 10). The forecast can change during those 10 days.

Further along the timeframe, even Florida (North and Central) will be in below average temperatures, while South Florida has above average temperatures.

Notice that they've backed down on the megafreeze? Did you know that Seattle's high temperatures were forecast to be at 9 degrees and it's lows would be at -10 degrees at 12z. On the 18z, it looks like they've backed down on the megafreeze. It'll still be cold, but not as bitterly cold as what they forecasted this far out.
Yep...The Negative AO and NAO cometh..

Quoting 287. GeorgiaStormz:

That Placement <3




Although the shortwave is stronger on Wednesday, the best day for severe weather looks to be on Tuesday. The GFS suggests we might be able to muster 500-750j/kg of CAPE across southern Mississippi despite widespread cloudiness and rain. There's not much in the way of directional shear, so it looks like damaging winds might be the main threat.
Quoting 291. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Although the shortwave is stronger on Wednesday, the best day for severe weather looks to be on Tuesday. The GFS suggests we might be able to muster 500-750j/kg of CAPE across southern Mississippi despite widespread cloudiness and rain. There's not much in the way of directional shear, so it looks like damaging winds might be the main threat.



Yeah i'm thinking over south MS/AL will be best. As the surface low deepens however, I'm not sure what happens toward AL/GA. Last time in November more activity than expected formed towards our WFO (we really didn't think much was coming because it seemed so stable). You never know what to expect with such a rapidly deepening low. Seems to be even more dynamic than last time. There is still plenty of time to see what happens. I expect with that front powering through so rapidly that at least a few storms may contain gusty winds and maybe a couple spinups as the afternoon goes on.


The latest ECMWF didn't look nearly as strong, but the GFS keeps increasing the size of the warm sector. I'd like to see the NAM's take and some more ECMWF runs. Hopefully by tomorrow night/early monday we'll have a better idea of who may get what.
Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Just saw the temperature anomalies for the US. Every state except Florida (Of course, Florida is the only place where real winter happens only 0.01% of the time) is going to be in below average temperatures.





Of course this cold weather will be 10 days away (The magic number 10). The forecast can change during those 10 days.

Further along the timeframe, even Florida (North and Central) will be in below average temperatures, while South Florida has above average temperatures.

Notice that they've backed down on the megafreeze? Did you know that Seattle's high temperatures were forecast to be at 9 degrees and it's lows would be at -10 degrees at 12z. On the 18z, it looks like they've backed down on the megafreeze. It'll still be cold, but not as bitterly cold as what they forecasted this far out.
No, we're not going to see a megafreeze, especially in Seattle, where it's not going to get much below freezing, even at night. It's one of the reasons I just refuse to take 10 day models seriously now. If those models would have been right, I should have about 6 inches of rain instead of the measly 0.77" I actually have.

Just dreary here this afternoon, Sun was out a bit this AM, high 60.1F
Quoting 295. PedleyCA:


Just dreary here this afternoon, Sun was out a bit this AM, high 60.1F
we had bright sunshine cool just above freezing gonna be in the 40's by Monday
Ped, the high of day was 21F - back down to 17F at the moment. No precip., but a thick layer of frost is over everything.

Could be in the single digits tonight.
Redskins 27, Eagles 24 .... what's up with that?

Chargers-49ers coming up soon. Go Chargers....
Quoting 256. Sfloridacat5:

18Z GFS at 54 hours
The GFS is showing two moisture feeds moving into Florida and the S.E.

I'll give Scott some credit for calling the moisture feed from the Caribbean. He did call that several days ago.
It also showing some rain for my location on Monday. The main batch of rain will come later (Wednesday/Thursday).


yeah scott is fairly good at these winter time storms. he gets a few wrong but don't we all.
The 00Z GEOS-5 is finally out. They run it real late anyways, things are initialized right, but if it get delayed it's really late.





NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% to 65% chance of minor geomagnetic storms this weekend when a pair of CMEs is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after nightfall.
@ 285. Neapolitan

Cool pictures you got there... especially the first one looks so artistic
@ Dr. Simpson - who co-developed the scale we all use today which means pretty much everything
May you rest in peace and thank you for your major contributions to today's world
Meanwhile, in the North Atlantic southwest of the Azores.

Quoting 308. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Meanwhile, in the North Atlantic southwest of the Azores.




Don't Beg... It is Wintertime
Cloudy and cool today. Occasional spits of light rain. 52/61 and 0.01" of rain today, first rain in 24 days!
TropicalAnalystwx13 that picture is very pretty. It looks like a comet. But doesn't the streak to the north from the storm indicate strong shear?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I agree. Based on the models, along with December climatology, the heavier rain should fall across northern Florida.

20 days with only .01" of rain here. We are one of the areas in Florida that would really benefit from several inches of rain.


I think the heaviest rain should fall in South Georgia. Specifically on the central GA coast.
Quoting 311. DonnieBwkGA:

TropicalAnalystwx13 that picture is very pretty. It looks like a comet. But doesn't the streak to the north from the storm indicate strong shear?

Attached to a front.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's a shame. Your grass is also having some trouble dealing with the weather.

Our coldest night so far this season has been 46 degrees here in Fort Myers.

6 Plant Hardiness Zones in Florida.





Those zones will change once the 1983, 1985, 1986 and 1989 freezes drop out of the 30 year average don't you think?
So detach to develop, right?
Quoting 315. DonnieBwkGA:

So detach to develop, right?

It would have to, yeah, but the time for that has come and gone. It was less frontal yesterday:



Just something to look at.
Quoting 294. sar2401:

No, we're not going to see a megafreeze, especially in Seattle, where it's not going to get much below freezing, even at night. It's one of the reasons I just refuse to take 10 day models seriously now. If those models would have been right, I should have about 6 inches of rain instead of the measly 0.77" I actually have.

So you're saying that no one really has a handle on the weather 10 days out? That won't do, that just won't do .
Quoting 239. Sfloridacat5:



Seeing that this map is a little old, these dates may need to be adjusted a bit.

It's missing places like West Palm Beach
Quoting 308. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Meanwhile, in the North Atlantic southwest of the Azores.



It's frontal characteristics keep this from being a named system. If it were to become more of a independent feature, then it could stand a chance at being a brief satellite storm. There's not much time before its absorbed by the encroaching trough to the immediate west, so odds are close to 0% for development.

Quoting 310. DonnieBwkGA:

Cloudy and cool today. Occasional spits of light rain. 52/61 and 0.01" of rain today, first rain in 24 days!


Warmer there than here....
Quoting PedleyCA:

Warmer there than here....


I am further south than you :) 31.3 N
Quoting 321. DonnieBwkGA:



I am further south than you :) 31.3 N

Was supposed to be 64 today, only made it to 60.1F....
Now the temps will go up slowly to 80 then dip for Xmas.
49ers 28, Chargers 7
Quoting 314. DonnieBwkGA:



Those zones will change once the 1983, 1985, 1986 and 1989 freezes drop out of the 30 year average don't you think?

You are absolutely right. Metro Orlando is definitely a solid zone 10a and Metro Miami is zone 11a(though rural extreme S Fl west of Miami is 10b or in many cases 10a). I attribute this to increasing urbanization, and while natural multi-decade fluctuations will continue as they have since before man kind, such as the cold 1980s, the warming effects of urbanization will continue and increase (for as long as organized human civilization continues in a given area at least). The most recent version of the USDA hardiness zones map for FL looked pretty close to spot on, excluding the urban heat islands around the state.
The NWS forecast rainfall (the green line) is above all models. The NWS did this 3 times last fall and all three times they were right! Will it be four? :)

Low near the Azores seems to be organizing
San Diego coming back, S.F 28, S.D. 21 .... 3:26 (3rd)
Rapidscat of the low in the Atlantic..

35-35 00:29 left going to OT maybe...
60yd. FG missed by S.F. going to OT....

S,D. kicked FG after S.F. fumbled the ball and lost it..
38-35
Quoting 330. PedleyCA:

35-35 00:29 left going to OT maybe...
60yd. FG missed by S.F. going to OT....

S,D. kicked FG after S.F. fumbled the ball and lost it..
38-35


How is it going Ped?

Shows 21F at the house, but we just got back from shopping and it was 13F at the store and felt pretty darn cold. I over did it outside and got too cold... Trying to warm up at the moment.
Quoting 331. Dakster:



How is it going Ped?

Shows 21F at the house, but we just got back from shopping and it was 13F at the store and felt pretty darn cold. I over did it outside and got too cold... Trying to warm up at the moment.


Be careful, no freeze you A$$. off to bed, have a good night.....
Quoting 332. PedleyCA:



Be careful, no freeze you A$$. off to bed, have a good night.....


I have a bed warmer to prevent that... get my wumail?
Regarding the list of billion dollar weather disasters for 2014, I've heard from local news sources that the damage bill from the recent supercell thunderstorm in Brisbane Queensland has blown out to over $1 billion (AU). Is there a chance of this event being added to the list? I'm just curious is all. By the way, I enjoy reading your blogs every day. I find them very interesting and educational. Phil
A hurricane all the way back in 1919, nearly 100 years ago, affected a man who would do so much for hurricane science due to the interest caused by it, a man who just died 2 days ago! This is why history is not to be ignored, as it affects us even now. We are all a part of this long, intertwined, narrative of history.

I am saddened I never met this man, but your legacy, those beautiful works of your mind, will live on. Thank you for your contribution to humanity.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 /330 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING...

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A STRONG WINTER TIME STORM MOVING INTO
THE MID SOUTH WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
TIME OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WITH AREA RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES AT OR BELOW NORMAL FLOWS
FOR DECEMBER...THE CURRENTLY PREDICTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY RISES TO ACTION STAGE AT MOST
OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL
BE WITHIN THE OCHLOCKONEE AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER BASINS WHERE
THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER
THIS WEEK. SHOULD MORE RAIN OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
CORRESPONDING RIVER FLOOD RISK WOULD INCREASE AND INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL RIVER BASINS REACHING AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR AHPS PAGE AT
THE FOLLOWING LINK (ALL LOWERCASE):

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

$$

GODSEY
Quoting 338. LargoFl:
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 /330 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING...

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A STRONG WINTER TIME STORM MOVING INTO
THE MID SOUTH WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
TIME OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WITH AREA RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES AT OR BELOW NORMAL FLOWS
FOR DECEMBER...THE CURRENTLY PREDICTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY RISES TO ACTION STAGE AT MOST
OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL
BE WITHIN THE OCHLOCKONEE AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER BASINS WHERE
THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER
THIS WEEK. SHOULD MORE RAIN OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE
CORRESPONDING RIVER FLOOD RISK WOULD INCREASE AND INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL RIVER BASINS REACHING AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR AHPS PAGE AT
THE FOLLOWING LINK (ALL LOWERCASE):

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

$$

GODSEY


We could see totals in the 6" to 9" range Largo across the Big Bend of FL specially near Ocala and maybe The Villages just to my NW.
CAUTION****CAUTION***CAUTION****CAUTION****CAUTION

Indiana Weather Christmas Eve thru Friday!!
Special Weather Statement from the NWS.



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE FOR CHRISTMAS EVE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

LEAD PORTION OF THE POWERFUL UPPER JET APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK.
HOWEVER...THAT HAS DONE LITTLE TO AID IN DEVELOPING A STRONGER
CONSENSUS FOR THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AS 00Z MODEL SUITE FRANKLY INTRODUCING MORE QUESTIONS THAN
ANSWERS. THE ECMWF AND OP GFS ARE BOTH SLOWER WITH PHASING THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS ALOFT...WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER
TROUGH NOT TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT UNTIL LATER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FEATURE PASSES CENTRAL INDIANA. CONSEQUENTLY THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IS ALSO SLOWER TO TAKE PLACE...OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A COUPLE MEMBERS
REMAIN DEEPER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK.

TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGER THAN
DESIRED AND WITH BOTH THE OP GFS AND ECMWF SHIFTING THE LOW TRACK
FURTHER EAST WITH A SLOWER ENERGY PHASE...IT REMAINS PREMATURE TO
LATCH ONTO A SPECIFIC SOLUTION. 12Z RUNS TODAY AND DEFINITELY THE
00Z RUNS TONIGHT SHOULD GET FULL SAMPLING OF THE STRONG UPPER JET
ENERGY COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THIS FEATURE SET TO
BE A MAJOR PLAYER INT HE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM...MAY
FINALLY START TO SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN MODEL CONSENSUS.

DO PLAN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT ACCUMS BUT ATTEMPT TO EMPLOY ANY MORE DETAIL
WOULD BE FUTILE WITH SUCH TRACK UNCERTAINTY TO THE SURFACE WAVE. IF
THE WAVE TRACKS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA VERSUS FURTHER
EAST...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMS WOULD BE GREATER WITH THE MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND ALIGNING IN SOME MANNER OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IT STANDS...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT...AND
POTENTIAL LIGHT ACCUMS AS A SECONDARY IMPACT. THE THREAT FOR TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS REMAINS GREATEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THOSE
WITH TRAVEL PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE SURFACE WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF MODEL
VARIANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THAT IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE UNTIL
MODELS CAN GAIN A BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE CHRISTMAS EVE STORM. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN ON FRIDAY
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHILLY AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
Strong microburst or downburst in Porto Alegre and Canoas yesterday after a day with 100F and minimal central pressure of 996 mbar. The winds in the International Airport Salgado Filho in Porto Alegre reached 80 mph. 1 million of people were without electricity in this morning in the Rio Grande Do Sul state, South of Brazil. The storm was classified as "historic". The factors that caused this storm were atipicas as very low pressure (was a record), very hot day, strong jet stream with strong cold front that came from Argentina and Uruguay brought a very intense storm. In Uruguay, a tornado killed a person. In some moments we had Supercells with the index of reflectivity extreme, with potential to bring tornadoes and microbursts.

Neighborhood White River:









GFS is showing Mid Atlantic snow with ice all the way down into Florida on Dec. 31st.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...MORE HUMID AND WARMER THROUGH WED...
...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY INTO MON THEN AGAIN LATE TUE
AND WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...

CURRENTLY...
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING INSIDE A WEAK INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE SW GOMEX ACRS THE NRN FL PENINSULA. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCRSG MOISTURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH PWAT VALUES ARND
1.4"...UP FROM 0.8" FROM THE 20/00Z FLIGHT...A FEW POCKETS OF DRY
AIR REMAIN BLO THE H70 LYR THAT INDICATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
MOISTURE LOADING. TO THE S...KMFL HAS MOISTENED TO 1.2" UP FROM 0.9"
FROM 20/00Z BUT STILL SHOWS THE REFLECTION OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE FL STRAITS AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ABV
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H80-H75 LYR. TO THE N...BOTH KJAX/KTAE
ARE NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WITH VERY DRY AIR ABV AN
INVERSION IN THE H70-H60 LYR. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES PLENTIFUL
UPSTREAM MOISTURE WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES OVER THE GOMEX
LARGELY AOA 80PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOA 50PCT BUT AS HIGH AS 90PCT
WITHIN THE VCNTY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

ALOFT...A 100-120KT ZONAL JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO BERMUDA IS PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IS
GENERATING A BROAD LINE OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. THOUGH THIS LINE HAS
MARGINAL STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION...VORTICITY AND OMEGA FIELDS SHOW
SIMILAR AXES...WITH ALL THREE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED. MODERATELY
COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH H50 TEMPS HOLDING ARND -10C. H70-H50
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FROM ARND 5.5C/KM OVER THE PENINSULA TO
6.0-6.5C/KM OVER THE ERN GOMEX...BUT H85-H70 LAPSE RATES ACTUALLY
DECREASE FROM ARND 5.5C/KM OVERHEAD TO 4.5C/KM UPSTREAM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE ZONAL ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP W/SW FLOW THRU
THE H85-H30 LYR THAT WILL REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS ASSURES THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...IF EVEN THAT FAR. RUC40 ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A TIGHT E-W ISENTROPIC GRADIENT THRU THE 300K-315K LYR THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP W/SW FLOW TO EVENTUALLY PRODUCE THE NEXT
RAIN EVENT.

WITH MOST OF THE DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL FL ALREADY ERODED AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE UPSTREAM POISED TO PLOW WHAT REMAINS OUT OF THE
WAY...AND A WELL STACKED BAND OF INSTABILITY OVER THE GOMEX...POPS
WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SLGT CHC ALONG AND N OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BCMG 30-40 FROM VERO BEACH/LAKE
KISSIMMEE NWD. DRIER AIR AND FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT PRECIP OVER THE SRN CWA TO 20PCT...MAINLY IN -SHRAS.

PRECIP WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN WILL REFLECT THE
DRIER AIR TO THE S AND THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. PRECIP
PRIMARILY WILL BE AS SHRAS...COOL AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH THE ENHANCED
BAND OF MID/UPR LVL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW ISOLATED TSRA TO DVLP IN
THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MOS SHOWS HI POPS
OVER THE NRN CWA...THOUGH ECMWF IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH 70POPS CLEAR
DOWN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/JUPITER INLET. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER THE
NRN BREVARD/NRN OSCEOLA NWD...SCT FROM SRN BREVARD/SRN OSCEOLA SWD.

ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE GFS SOLUTION BTWN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT
WITH QPF BTWN 0.75"-1.5" ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. TIME SECTIONS FOR
THE REGION SHOW VERY STRONG COUPLETS IN THE OMEGA AND DIVERGENCE
FIELDS IN THE PRESENCE OF 90PCT MEAN RH THRU THE ENTIRE H70-H30 LYR.
WHILE THE MOISTURE SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...THE COUPLETS ARE
CLEAR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH...
NO DOUBT...BUT WILL CAP QPF BTWN 0.25"-0.50".

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF SIG PRECIP TO ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/N70S AREAWIDE...NEAR 80 ALONG THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
4-8F ABV AVG. CLDY SKIES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S/L60S WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE L/M60S...EXCEPT IN THE M/U60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...10-15F ABV AVG.

MON-TUE...A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. TAIL END OF A BAND OF
CONVECTION NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN
SECTIONS EARLY MON THEN AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH...
NO LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE NOTED. LIKELY POPS IN THE
NORTH MON WILL TAPER BACK TO 30-40 PERCENT TUE. POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH LOOK TO JUST BE AROUND 20 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. WITH THE HIGH
MOISTURE...THERE WILL PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY MON. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S NORTH ON MON AND LOWER 80S SOUTH.
THE LOWER 80S SHOULD LIFT TO CENTRAL SECTIONS ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT-CHRISTMAS...TROUGH IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WILL DEEPEN WITH BASED DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WED THEN
DAMPENING OUT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON CHRISTMAS.

THIS LATEST MODEL SOLUTION IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT IN THE
NORTH AND ON WED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STILL INDICATED AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF 850 MB WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN THE GFS (WHICH HAS
BACKED TO AROUND 35 KNOTS). IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ON WED COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWER CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO WED NIGHT AND SOME CLOUDINESS INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK AS COOL WITH THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. CONSENSUS LOWS ARE NOW IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S WITH HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND THESE READINGS MAY EVEN BE TOO COOL.

FRI-NEXT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
CONSENSUS SOLUTION SHOWING IT APPROACHING BY SUN (MOST SUPPORTED
BY THE ECMWF). THE GFS SMEARS 15-20 POPS OUT SAT-SUN BUT WILL HOLD
OFF THROWING IN 20 PERCENT UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTER TEMPS CLOSE TO
NORMAL ON FRI...MODERATION TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED ON
THE WEEKEND.

Good morning, Looks like they backed off a bit on the rain chances here in Central Florida and the temps as well heading into Christmas.
Here's a bigger look at the system on Dec. 31st.
Quoting 342. Sfloridacat5:

GFS is showing Mid Atlantic snow with ice all the way down into Florida on Dec. 31st.

Still too far out.
Quoting Climate175:
Still too far out.


Yeah, 10 days is pretty far out, but it's something to watch.
Confidence of a system around that time frame -pretty high, but confidence of ice in Florida - very low.
Quoting 343. hurricanewatcher61:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...MORE HUMID AND WARMER THROUGH WED...
...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE TODAY INTO MON THEN AGAIN LATE TUE
AND WED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...

CURRENTLY...
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING INSIDE A WEAK INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE SW GOMEX ACRS THE NRN FL PENINSULA. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCRSG MOISTURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH PWAT VALUES ARND
1.4"...UP FROM 0.8" FROM THE 20/00Z FLIGHT...A FEW POCKETS OF DRY
AIR REMAIN BLO THE H70 LYR THAT INDICATE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
MOISTURE LOADING. TO THE S...KMFL HAS MOISTENED TO 1.2" UP FROM 0.9"
FROM 20/00Z BUT STILL SHOWS THE REFLECTION OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER
THE FL STRAITS AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ABV
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H80-H75 LYR. TO THE N...BOTH KJAX/KTAE
ARE NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WITH VERY DRY AIR ABV AN
INVERSION IN THE H70-H60 LYR. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES PLENTIFUL
UPSTREAM MOISTURE WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES OVER THE GOMEX
LARGELY AOA 80PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOA 50PCT BUT AS HIGH AS 90PCT
WITHIN THE VCNTY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

ALOFT...A 100-120KT ZONAL JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO BERMUDA IS PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IS
GENERATING A BROAD LINE OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE. THOUGH THIS LINE HAS
MARGINAL STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION...VORTICITY AND OMEGA FIELDS SHOW
SIMILAR AXES...WITH ALL THREE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED. MODERATELY
COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH H50 TEMPS HOLDING ARND -10C. H70-H50
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN FROM ARND 5.5C/KM OVER THE PENINSULA TO
6.0-6.5C/KM OVER THE ERN GOMEX...BUT H85-H70 LAPSE RATES ACTUALLY
DECREASE FROM ARND 5.5C/KM OVERHEAD TO 4.5C/KM UPSTREAM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE ZONAL ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP W/SW FLOW THRU
THE H85-H30 LYR THAT WILL REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. THIS ASSURES THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...IF EVEN THAT FAR. RUC40 ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A TIGHT E-W ISENTROPIC GRADIENT THRU THE 300K-315K LYR THAT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEEP W/SW FLOW TO EVENTUALLY PRODUCE THE NEXT
RAIN EVENT.

WITH MOST OF THE DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL FL ALREADY ERODED AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE UPSTREAM POISED TO PLOW WHAT REMAINS OUT OF THE
WAY...AND A WELL STACKED BAND OF INSTABILITY OVER THE GOMEX...POPS
WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SLGT CHC ALONG AND N OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BCMG 30-40 FROM VERO BEACH/LAKE
KISSIMMEE NWD. DRIER AIR AND FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE FRONT WILL
LIMIT PRECIP OVER THE SRN CWA TO 20PCT...MAINLY IN -SHRAS.

PRECIP WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN WILL REFLECT THE
DRIER AIR TO THE S AND THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. PRECIP
PRIMARILY WILL BE AS SHRAS...COOL AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH THE ENHANCED
BAND OF MID/UPR LVL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW ISOLATED TSRA TO DVLP IN
THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MOS SHOWS HI POPS
OVER THE NRN CWA...THOUGH ECMWF IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH 70POPS CLEAR
DOWN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/JUPITER INLET. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL OVER THE
NRN BREVARD/NRN OSCEOLA NWD...SCT FROM SRN BREVARD/SRN OSCEOLA SWD.

ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE GFS SOLUTION BTWN 06Z-12Z TONIGHT
WITH QPF BTWN 0.75"-1.5" ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR. TIME SECTIONS FOR
THE REGION SHOW VERY STRONG COUPLETS IN THE OMEGA AND DIVERGENCE
FIELDS IN THE PRESENCE OF 90PCT MEAN RH THRU THE ENTIRE H70-H30 LYR.
WHILE THE MOISTURE SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE...THE COUPLETS ARE
CLEAR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH...
NO DOUBT...BUT WILL CAP QPF BTWN 0.25"-0.50".

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF SIG PRECIP TO ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
M/N70S AREAWIDE...NEAR 80 ALONG THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
4-8F ABV AVG. CLDY SKIES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S/L60S WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE L/M60S...EXCEPT IN THE M/U60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...10-15F ABV AVG.

MON-TUE...A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR NORTH. TAIL END OF A BAND OF
CONVECTION NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN
SECTIONS EARLY MON THEN AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH...
NO LARGE SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE NOTED. LIKELY POPS IN THE
NORTH MON WILL TAPER BACK TO 30-40 PERCENT TUE. POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH LOOK TO JUST BE AROUND 20 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. WITH THE HIGH
MOISTURE...THERE WILL PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY MON. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S NORTH ON MON AND LOWER 80S SOUTH.
THE LOWER 80S SHOULD LIFT TO CENTRAL SECTIONS ON TUE.

TUE NIGHT-CHRISTMAS...TROUGH IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WILL DEEPEN WITH BASED DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WED THEN
DAMPENING OUT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON CHRISTMAS.

THIS LATEST MODEL SOLUTION IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT IN THE
NORTH AND ON WED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE STILL INDICATED AS THE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF 850 MB WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN THE GFS (WHICH HAS
BACKED TO AROUND 35 KNOTS). IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ON WED COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS.

SHOWER CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO WED NIGHT AND SOME CLOUDINESS INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK AS COOL WITH THE SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME CLOUDINESS. CONSENSUS LOWS ARE NOW IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S WITH HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S...AND THESE READINGS MAY EVEN BE TOO COOL.

FRI-NEXT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT
WEEKEND. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
CONSENSUS SOLUTION SHOWING IT APPROACHING BY SUN (MOST SUPPORTED
BY THE ECMWF). THE GFS SMEARS 15-20 POPS OUT SAT-SUN BUT WILL HOLD
OFF THROWING IN 20 PERCENT UNTIL SUNDAY. AFTER TEMPS CLOSE TO
NORMAL ON FRI...MODERATION TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED ON
THE WEEKEND.

Good morning, Looks like they backed off a bit on the rain chances here in Central Florida and the temps as well heading into Christmas.


?? 80% for tonight and 60% Tuesday Night & Wednesday. NWS normally doesn't go above 60% until within 24hrs of the event hence the 80% raise from 50% yesterday for tonight but no they haven't lowered rain chances infact they've extended them into Wednesday night now.
Morning, all - looks like some interesting weather may be on its way

Quoting 346. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, 10 days is pretty far out, but it's something to watch.
Confidence of a system around that time frame -pretty high, but confidence of ice in Florida - very low.


I'm rooting it on! As always tho, I'll believe it when I see it. I'd love to see a freakish snowfall across the Gulf Coast.
Quoting 341. pablosyn:

Strong microburst or downburst in Porto Alegre and Canoas yesterday after a day with 100�F and minimal central pressure of 996 mbar. The winds in the International Airport Salgado Filho in Porto Alegre reached 80 mph. 1 million of people were without electricity in this morning in the Rio Grande Do Sul state, South of Brazil. The storm was classified as "historic". The factors that caused this storm were atipicas as very low pressure (was a record), very hot day, strong jet stream with strong cold front that came from Argentina and Uruguay brought a very intense storm. In Uruguay, a tornado killed a person. In some moments we had Supercells with the index of reflectivity extreme, with potential to bring tornadoes and microbursts.



Violent storm for sure!


20.12.2014: Na data do dia 20/12/2014 o integrante do @pista_limpa sr Cesar Augusto
( @ACS_ENTULHOS ) filmou uma tempestade no interior do Rio Grande do Sul.



Porto Alegre.


snow on the ground this morning in new haven,conn
Quoting 348. LAbonbon:

Morning, all - looks like some interesting weather may be on its way


yes stay alert.........................Model consensus would suggest somewhere on the order of
50-60kts of deep layer shear, coupling with near 30kts of low-
level shear to warrant a threat for supercell thunderstorms. The
primary threat with these storms will be tornadoes and possibly
damaging wind gusts. Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning a
potent squall line associated with the northern stream trough will
pass through the same favorable environment for severe
thunderstorms. The primary threats along the squall will be QLCS
tornado development as well as damaging straight line winds. The
severe threat will probably continue into Wednesday morning/early
afternoon across the southeast Big Bend as the cold front makes
its way through the region. Between the storms on Tuesday and
Wednesday, another 2-4 inches of rain will be possible.

Now versus 10 days out..

Quoting 341. pablosyn:

Strong microburst or downburst in Porto Alegre and Canoas yesterday after a day with 100�F and minimal central pressure of 996 mbar. The winds in the International Airport Salgado Filho in Porto Alegre reached 80 mph. 1 million of people were without electricity in this morning in the Rio Grande Do Sul state, South of Brazil. The storm was classified as "historic". The factors that caused this storm were atipicas as very low pressure (was a record), very hot day, strong jet stream with strong cold front that came from Argentina and Uruguay brought a very intense storm. In Uruguay, a tornado killed a person. In some moments we had Supercells with the index of reflectivity extreme, with potential to bring tornadoes and microbursts.

Neighborhood White River:













8 more hours until Winter.
Jan. 1, 2014 - Happy New Year
Winter get's here officially at 6:03pm EST.
Quoting 362. Sfloridacat5:

Jan. 1, 2014 - Happy New Year

Looks like 2015 is going to bring in the cold air.
Quoting 362. Sfloridacat5:

Jan. 1, 2014 - Happy New Year



LOL. Maybe for you, sitting in (comparatively) balmy SW FL...
This could be a very cold year for the people standing outside in NYC watching the ball drop on New Years.
Quoting LAbonbon:


LOL. Maybe for you, sitting in (comparatively) balmy SW FL...


If the forecast holds, its going to be a frigid New Years for the eastern half of the U.S.
Quoting 366. Sfloridacat5:

This could be a very cold year for the people standing outside in NYC watching the ball drop on New Years.

Ah the cold of Jan.
Closer view.
As it should be. Question is whether it is just a flash in the pan? I think it will be short-lived and moderate quickly.

Quoting 362. Sfloridacat5:

Jan. 1, 2014 - Happy New Year

Late 90's I was up there for a cold one. Being in the middle of that crowd helps to keep you warm. As did the immense quantity of alcohol I ingested (at least I felt warm) ;-)

Quoting 366. Sfloridacat5:

This could be a very cold year for the people standing outside in NYC watching the ball drop on New Years.

Quoting 371. HaoleboySurfEC:

As it should be. Question is whether it is just a flash in the pan? I think it will be short-lived and moderate quickly.


I was looking at some new long range outlooks. Still looks stormy and cold, with the real cold just after Christmas. One interesting point was made in reference to the SSW and that its current position would favor the coldest air to be farther west , meaning that the Central U.S. would be receiving the the coldest air.
Quoting 371. HaoleboySurfEC:

As it should be. Question is whether it is just a flash in the pan? I think it will be short-lived and moderate quickly.




The Winter Classic Hockey game is in DC this year Jan 1. Cold (-10F departure from normal ) does look likely though it's still ten days out. Cold would
not be as bad as a drenching heavy rain. I've never been much for outdoor sports events unless I'm a participant.
Quoting 324. HurrMichaelOrl:


You are absolutely right. Metro Orlando is definitely a solid zone 10a and Metro Miami is zone 11a(though rural extreme S Fl west of Miami is 10b or in many cases 10a). I attribute this to increasing urbanization, and while natural multi-decade fluctuations will continue as they have since before man kind, such as the cold 1980s, the warming effects of urbanization will continue and increase (for as long as organized human civilization continues in a given area at least). The most recent version of the USDA hardiness zones map for FL looked pretty close to spot on, excluding the urban heat islands around the state.


THe revised Zones moved south about half a zone to a zone south in 1990 when the effects of the 1980s freezes were included. They were adjusted back north again in a recent revision. Landscape designers should remember it's not annual minimums that kill plants, it's the decade to century minimums that do (or variability which is not
accounted for in these zones).

I've got the zones back to 1940 somewhere but have to make an image somewhere on the web including them all and then incorporate it. It's interesting to see how far south they moved after the arctic outbreaks of the 1980s, a decade that had more of these than any other in the 20'th century. About half of all of the devastating florida freezes of the 20'th century happened in the 80s also.
I love it that Dr Simpson is the only scientist in these photos wearing a tie! Some of the younger folks in the first picture are actually wearing T-Shirts and flip-flops, to an important scientific conference. I'm old enough to have known a few top scientists of Dr Simpson's generation, they certainly brought a seriousness and professionalism to their fields that does sometimes seem lacking today. I know, times change, and there are plenty of people doing great science today that don't even own a necktie.
12z GFS has shifted some of the heaviest precipitation further up towards the Panhandle of Florida.
We'll have to see if this changes with the next runs. I'm hoping to get some of the heavier rain down here in S.W. Fl.
Ugh..



P.S. 70 on Christmas Eve? Seriously?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ugh..



P.S. 70 on Christmas Eve? Seriously?


Now you know what it's like to be a Floridian every Christmas.

Well, except for the fact we're predicted to only get to 63F on Christmas Day, but still...
Quoting 378. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ugh..



P.S. 70 on Christmas Eve? Seriously?
Yes......Very pathetic.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH NATURE COAST AND ADJACENT
GULF WATERS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM KTBW AND NEIGHBORING SITES SHOW THAT THE LOWER LEVELS HAVE
MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THAT MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF A COUPLE DEGREES. THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
SPREAD SOUTH TO AT LEAST AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. A FEW
TICKS OF LIGHTNING HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING...AND
WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED STORMS STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.

OTHER THAN ADDING IN ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH TONIGHT. THE POINT AND CLICK FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED...AND ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
The Weather Channel is starting to forecast a southern snow event near New Years.
Quoting 324. HurrMichaelOrl:


You are absolutely right. Metro Orlando is definitely a solid zone 10a and Metro Miami is zone 11a(though rural extreme S Fl west of Miami is 10b or in many cases 10a). I attribute this to increasing urbanization, and while natural multi-decade fluctuations will continue as they have since before man kind, such as the cold 1980s, the warming effects of urbanization will continue and increase (for as long as organized human civilization continues in a given area at least). The most recent version of the USDA hardiness zones map for FL looked pretty close to spot on, excluding the urban heat islands around the state.

DCA is on the border of Zone 8b and 9a. The rest of the metro area is realistically zone 7b although I wonder if we are transitioning to 8a. If we can get to 8b I can grow florist gardenias outside. Hardy ones with a shorter bloom period and stronger dormancy response (No Christmas flowers for you!!) are hardy to zone 7a.
18Z on Christmas day.
Only a small area of the country will be below freezing for a high temperature on Christmas.

Quoting 380. washingtonian115:

Yes......Very pathetic.
I like your new icon.
Quoting 376. PeterLLLLL:

I love it that Dr Simpson is the only scientist in these photos wearing a tie! Some of the younger folks in the first picture are actually wearing T-Shirts and flip-flops, to an important scientific conference. I'm old enough to have known a few top scientists of Dr Simpson's generation, they certainly brought a seriousness and professionalism to their fields that does sometimes seem lacking today. I know, times change, and there are plenty of people doing great science today that don't even own a necktie.
Dr. Gray is wearing a tie.

Add:
:)
The bolo tie was made the official neckwear of Arizona in 1971. New Mexico passed a non-binding measure to designate the bolo as the state's official neckwear in 1987. On March 13, 2007, New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson, signed into law that the bolo tie is now the state's official tie.[2] Also in 2007, the bolo tie was named the official tie of Texas.[3] Politicians and officials from western states will often wear them, such as former Montana Governor, Brian Schweitzer.
It sounds like Dr Simpson kept active after "retirement". For many meteorologists the quotes
are appropriate since people in this field tend to both delay retirement and stay active after formal
retirement.. a sign of a good work life environment and career satisfaction. It looks to me (I haven't formally
looked at the numbers) is that our divorce rate is lower than the national average also. Since I also work
with a lot of computer jocks I can see the contrast. Computer jocks tend to burn out and retire early (yeah there
are many exceptions) . I'm hoping the met side translates to my future.. so far it seems to.

I can't overstate what a huge hidden life benefit this is for people in our field.
Quoting 386. Barefootontherocks:

Dr. Gray is wearing a tie.


I actually like ties. I don't like the crisp shirts one must wear with them but ties really are
the only way for a business dressed man to accessorize since the 50s when hats went
out of style.

But if I wore a shirt and tie to work, people would get suspicious.
But if I wore a shirt and tie to work, people would get suspicious.
LOL
Quoting 379. CybrTeddy:



Now you know what it's like to be a Floridian every Christmas.

Well, except for the fact we're predicted to only get to 63F on Christmas Day, but still...


Christmas 1983 Fort Myers beach. Icicles hung off our beach house faucet and it was windy in the low 30s AM getting to about 40 PM.
This shows whats to come..Especially with the ridge returning to the west coast.

Quoting 390. georgevandenberghe:



Christmas 1983 Fort Myers beach. Icicles hung off our beach house faucet and it was windy in the low 30s AM getting to about 40 PM.
I lived on Captiva then..Frost on the pilings...Very rare indeed.
It's beginning to look like Chris.............. NOT!!!!
Warm and humid down here today! Not feeling the spirit at all.
Quoting 394. Sfloridacat5:



The GFS has been off/on for days over a snow/ice threat for the Southeast around the December 31-January 1 period. We'll see how things trend over the coming days.
Quoting 377. Sfloridacat5:

12z GFS has shifted some of the heaviest precipitation further up towards the Panhandle of Florida.
We'll have to see if this changes with the next runs. I'm hoping to get some of the heavier rain down here in S.W. Fl.



Local mets in Tampa are saying 70%-80% chance of rain for us tonight through the overnight. Then, rain chances are not that impressive Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon the front comes through, but seems to weaken as it hits the west coast of Florida. Again, this is all per local mets. I don't pretend to know what's going to happen. It seems like the only way Tampa will pick up 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days is if we get slammed tonight. It doesn't seem like the front will be a huge rainmaker.
Come Xmas day here, it will be 10 years since NOLA had Xmas Day snow.

Upper 50's and rain on Christmas Eve... really? Ew.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Local mets in Tampa are saying 70%-80% chance of rain for us tonight through the overnight. Then, rain chances are not that impressive Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon the front comes through, but seems to weaken as it hits the west coast of Florida. Again, this is all per local mets. I don't pretend to know what's going to happen. It seems like the only way Tampa will pick up 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5 days is if we get slammed tonight. It doesn't seem like the front will be a huge rainmaker.


I thought we were supposed to get up to 7 inches with tornadoes?
Quoting 399. luvtogolf:



I thought we were supposed to get up to 7 inches with tornadoes?


Well, tonight might be interesting rainfall wise. The Bay News 9 computer model was showing some pretty heavy convective rain hitting the Tampa Bay area. However, the same model showed the squall line front clearly weakening as it comes through on Wednesday. That seems to always happen, so not a big surprise. It actually seems like tonight into tomorrow morning is our best chance of getting significant rain.
Quoting 399. luvtogolf:



I thought we were supposed to get up to 7 inches with tornadoes?


Never listen to Model Frame posters, thats not a forecast, its model frame posting.

: P
Looks like last year.


cold weather in the new year of 2015??
Last January here in Fort Myers

2 nights in the 30s (37 on Jan. 17th, 39 on Jan. 19th)
7 nights in the 40s

So we had some cold air. Some years we never even get down in the 30s.

But we had 9 days with highs in the 80s. That was pretty surprising. 80s in January is pretty warm.
Quoting 405. Sfloridacat5:

Last January here in Fort Myers

2 nights in the 30s (37 on Jan. 17th, 39 on Jan. 19th)
7 nights in the 40s

So we had some cold air. Some years we never even get down in the 30s.

But we had 9 days with highs in the 80s. That was pretty surprising. 80s in January is pretty warm.

The winter of 88/89 was warm in S.W.Florida. If my memory is correct , 65 of those days were above 80 , and it only was near freezing twice at night .Winter was basically a no show.
Quoting 397. Patrap:

Come Xmas day here, it will be 10 years since NOLA had Xmas Day snow.




Winter 72-73. NOLA had two measurable snow events. I think over 1" both times.

DCA (Washington DC official) total... 1/10" for the season.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 10:09 AM PST on December 21, 2014
Haze
55.7 °F / 13.2 °C
Haze
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 51 °F / 11 °C
Wind: 4.0 mph / 6.4 km/h / 1.8 m/s from the SE
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph / 8.0 km/h
Pressure: 30.14 in / 1020 hPa (Steady)
57.2F here supposed to 66F today and 76F tomorrow.
Quoting 299. PedleyCA:

Redskins 27, Eagles 24 .... what's up with that?

Chargers-49ers coming up soon. Go Chargers....



There is a great disturbance in the force.
Look for signs of icing in Hades.
Quoting hydrus:
The winter of 88/89 was warm in S.W.Florida. If my memory is correct , 65 of those days were above 80 , and it only was near freezing twice at night .Winter was basically a no show.


I just checked February, 2014 and we had 20 days with temperatures in the 80s.
Only two nights with temps in the 40s.

It was pretty much warm the entire month of February last year.
Quoting 406. hydrus:

The winter of 88/89 was warm in S.W.Florida. If my memory is correct , 65 of those days were above 80 , and it only was near freezing twice at night .Winter was basically a no show.


Hydrus,
I think that winter even though Fort Myers didn't get anything, I might be wrong but I think that was the winter where it snowed an inch or so in Jacksonville around Christmas time.

Eric
Quoting EricfromJax:


Hydrus,
I think that winter even though Fort Myers didn't get anything, I might be wrong but I think that was the winter where it snowed an inch or so in Jacksonville around Christmas time.

Eric


I think that was the winter the pipes to our solar system on the roof froze up and busted open. I'm not 100% sure though.
I'll have to check. I thought it was around 1995 but I'm not sure.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Winter 72-73. NOLA had two measurable snow events. I think over 1" both times.

DCA (Washington DC official) total... 1/10" for the season.
Our last white Christmas, defined as measurable snow at some point on Christmas Day, was in 1919. We had a near miss with a trace in 1962 on Christmas eve but it was gone before midnight. As you might imagine, I don't hold my breath waiting for a white Christmas. :-)
Quoting 394. Sfloridacat5:




If the models are correct--and it usually isn't this far out--then Northern Florida will see a New Year's Day ice storm. About 1/10 to 1/8 inch of ice will cripple roads in those areas. We all know what Ice storms do to Florida, eg 1973 and last year.
Quoting 411. EricfromJax:



Hydrus,
I think that winter even though Fort Myers didn't get anything, I might be wrong but I think that was the winter where it snowed an inch or so in Jacksonville around Christmas time.

Eric


I think that was the following winter 89-90. December 89 was extremely cold with a winter weather event about the 24'th or so down to N Central FL.
Quoting 415. georgevandenberghe:



I think that was the following winter 89-90. December 89 was extremely cold with a winter weather event about the 24'th or so down to N Central FL.
Was at work Christmas Eve night when it snowed..No stick , just bunches of flurries...Neat stuff.
Let's take a trip down the GFS memory lane. This is what the GFS issued on December 14 said things would look like today:





A cold front has moved all the way south of Florida, a NE low is sitting off DelMarVa, and strong high pressure is dominating the Plains.

Let's see what it actually looks like today:

Link


What we really have is a stationary front draped over central Florida with a low in the Gulf. That monster high in the Plains is now a developing low pressure system. The NE low just never developed at all but we do have a weak trough over the Carolinas. The temperature forecast was just as wrong. Something to keep in mind when you look at long range models. I didn't even bother with 10 models. They have about a 20% to 30% chance of being right, so a winter weather dartboard has a better chance of being right.
Quoting DeepSouthUS:


If the models are correct--and it usually isn't this far out--then Northern Florida will see a New Year's Day ice storm. About 1/10 to 1/8 inch of ice will cripple roads in those areas. We all know what Ice storms do to Florida, eg 1973 and last year.


Yeah, right now there isn't any agreement with the ECMWF.
The ECMWF shows a low over the Ohio Valley region on Dec. 31 with warm air over the Eastcoast and cold air dumping in behind the system.
The GFS develops a low down in the GOM that tracks across Fl with cold air well established across the S.E.

Both models agree that cold air will push down into the U.S. around the end of the month/beginning on January. Other than that the models are showing a completely different setup for that time frame.
Quoting 411. EricfromJax:



Hydrus,
I think that winter even though Fort Myers didn't get anything, I might be wrong but I think that was the winter where it snowed an inch or so in Jacksonville around Christmas time.

Eric
Greetings Eric..I too , am going by memory. I am certain it was 87/88 or 88/89.
Back on Dec. 19th, the GFS predicted this setup for Christmas Eve. We'll have to see how accurate this ends up being. That's 5-6 days out. That's about as far out as you really want to go putting trust in a model.


The GFS also did a pretty good job of prediction the storm before Thanksgiving.
Quoting 419. hydrus:

Greetings Eric..I too , am going by memory. I am certain it was 87/88 or 88/89.


Christmas 1989 was when I-10, 1-75 and I-95 were all shut down in South Georgia and North Florida due to snow and ice. My late wife was in South Georgia Medical Center in Valdosta recovering from a stroke. I watched ambulances coming into the emergency room from wrecks on I-75 from her hospital room.
Here we go again (lol). The medium range models are indicating a post Christmas snow storm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Quoting Drakoen:
Here we go again (lol). The medium range models are indicating a post Christmas snow storm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.



I posted this earlier today. Washington will have a party after seeing this.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
There is already major changes from the 06z to the 12Z GFS.
The 12Z is much less excited about dropping snow on the Mid Atlantic.
But who knows what the models will show a week from now?