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New World Record for Super Typhoon Haiyan: a 180-Ton Boulder Transported

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on December 18, 2014

On November 8, 2013, the world changed forever for the people of the Central Philippines. The strongest tropical cyclone at landfall on record in world history, Super Typhoon Haiyan, crashed ashore on the island of Samar, bringing a massive storm surge of 15 - 23 feet to the city of Tacloban. At least 6,300 people died, mostly due to the storm surge, making it the deadliest typhoon in modern Philippines history. Storm surge surveys published earlier this year revealed that high waves on top of the surge created high water marks of up to 46 feet above mean sea level—among the highest in world history. New research presented by Max Engel and co-authors from the University of Cologne in Germany at this week’s American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, California found that Haiyan’s surge set another all-time record: the heaviest boulder known to be moved by a tropical cyclone. The team’s post-storm survey found a number of multi-ton boulders transported by the storm, with the heaviest being an incredible 180 metric tons. The huge boulder was shifted by 45 meters, parallel to the shore, by Haiyan’s storm surge. The boulder was on the shore near the town of Hernani, Samar Island, near where the remarkable storm surge video linked below was taken. Haiyan’s extreme storm surge was amplified by a long-wave phenomenon called infragravity waves or surf beat, Dr. Engel explained to me in an email, and that he and other researchers are not convinced anymore that a storm surge in the traditional sense, due to strong winds piling up a big dome of water, was that important in Eastern Samar.


Figure 1. Record-weight boulder (180 tons), 9 meters by 3.5 meters in size, transported by Super Typhoon Haiyan’s storm surge and waves. Image credit: Max Engel, University of Cologne, Germany.


Video 1. Nickson Gensis, Plan Philippines Community Development Worker, filmed from the top floor of a boarding house what is probably the most remarkable video of storm surge ever taken, during Super Typhoon Haiyan in Hernani, in Eastern Samar, Philippines on November 8, 2013. There is a remarkable tsunami-like storm surge observed at 46 seconds into the video.

Links
My May 2014 blog post, Super Typhoon Haiyan Storm Surge Survey Finds High Water Marks 46 Feet High.

My December 2013 blog post, Haiyan's Storm Surge: A Detailed Look.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A Rock, must Roll.....
Not one but 2 Ric.

Most everyone who lives in the PI (or who travels there a lot) believes that the final death toll was closer to 20k, and the government is just covering it up. Much like the fact that very little of the foreign donations went to the actual victims/displaced persons, instead ending up in the pockets of various govt officials.
Scott, please, enough with the long range Nino models. These models are less accurate then the long range hurricane models that Dr. Gray and others put out.
Even after this week's rains in California, it's estimated that the state still needs another 11 trillion gallons of rain to get out of the drought. To put into perspective how much water that is, it's roughly equal to:

-17 million Olympic swimming pools;
-14,000 times what it would take to fill Cowboys Stadium;
-170 days' worth of water flowing over Niagara Falls;
-Nearly a month (28.3 days) of the average Mississippi River flow rate at New Orleans.

Reservoirs are up, but still far below normal. Sierra snowpack is up, too, but also just a fraction of what it normally is this time of year.

Keep your fingers crossed...


Pacific jetstream currently maxed out at 244 mph!
Thanks Dr. Masters, Haiyan was indeed a special storm. I've been doing some research on WPac recently, particularly focusing on the most intense the basin has to offer, and I have come to the conclusion that Haiyan is definitely one of the strongest tropical cyclones the basin has produced since reliable records began.
Quoting 5. Neapolitan:

Even after this week's rains in California, it's estimated that the state still needs another 11 trillion gallons of rain to get out of the drought. To put into perspective how much water that is, it's roughly equal to:

-17 million Olympic swimming pools;
-14,000 times what it would take to fill Cowboys Stadium;
-170 days' worth of water flowing over Niagara Falls;
-Nearly a month (28.3 days) of the average Mississippi River flow rate at New Orleans.

Reservoirs are up, but still far below normal. Sierra snowpack is up, too, but also just a fraction of what it normally is this time of year.

Keep your fingers crossed...


Gotta start somewhere.
National Hurricane Center unveils new storm surge watch, warning maps





The National Hurricane Center took the next step towards creating separate hurricane storm surge warning messages on Thursday, releasing an example of new color storm surge watch and warning maps to be used on an experimental basis in the 2015 hurricane season.

The new maps will be used to highlight areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States that have a significant risk of life-threatening inundation by storm surge from a tropical depression, storm or hurricane.

The new maps still may not include areas within the newly completed New Orleans area hurricane surge levee system, unless the storms are predicted to be large enough to overtop the levees.

The map will use the color red to show areas where a storm surge warning will be in effect, indicating there is a danger of life-threatening flooding from rising water moving inland from the shoreline, generally within 36 hours. Yellow will be used for areas where life-threatening flooding is possible, generally within 48 hours.

The maps will urge those in the marked areas to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

The threat of surge flooding often covers different coastal areas than the threat of hurricane wind damage, which has led to confusion among the public about what areas are at risk. Surge flooding can also impact at different times from hurricane winds.

North Carolina storm surge.jpg


This map outlined coastal areas of North Carolina, including Wrightsville Beach, that could have seen storm surges of greater than 3 feet above ground level during Hurricane Arthur in July 2014, according to the National Hurricane Center's experimental surge forecast map.
National Hurricane Center

Beginning with 2014's Hurricane Arthur, the NHC began issuing a separate "Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map" that shows areas where rising water from storm surges and accompanying tides can occur and how high above ground that water could be, based on the latest NHC forecast and its likely errors.

The new maps for the 2015 season will become part of a comprehensive program of surge watch and warning messages that will be consolidated with the center's watches and warnings for winds in 2016. When complete, the new process will merge inland and coastal warning information from both threats into a single message. After a year of testing, the new storm surge warning system is expected to become fully operational in 2017.

Jamie Rhome, leader of the NHC's storm surge unit, said Thursday that his staff will send initial watch and warning maps to local National Weather Service offices to assure that local geography is properly represented when final versions are released.

"For Louisiana, we would push a proposed warning to the local office, and they would edit the warning and send it back, based on their local expertise and knowledge," Rhome said.

Frank Revitte, warning coordination meteorologist with the weather service's Slidell office, said the new surge maps will help the public and local emergency management officials better identify areas that might need to be evacuated.

"If people can visualize their particular area is in the storm surge warning, that will really help communicate the risk they face," Revitte said.

The new maps may not show flood risk inside the New Orleans area hurricane surge levee system, unless a storm is expected to overtop the levees. That's because information about rainfall-related water heights inside the levee system is limited, and often is only collected by the Army Corps of Engineers or local levee authorities, and not by the National Weather Service, Revitte said.

"There are certainly storms that produce a lot of rainfall, and there will be challenges keeping up with that," he said.


Haiyan and others (images cortesy of Digital Typhoon):

Haiyan 2013



Nida 2009



Gay 1992



Angela 1995



Tip 1979

Quoting 5. Neapolitan:

Even after this week's rains in California, it's estimated that the state still needs another 11 trillion gallons of rain to get out of the drought. To put into perspective how much water that is, it's roughly equal to:

-17 million Olympic swimming pools;
-14,000 times what it would take to fill Cowboys Stadium;
-170 days' worth of water flowing over Niagara Falls;
-Nearly a month (28.3 days) of the average Mississippi River flow rate at New Orleans.

Reservoirs are up, but still far below normal. Sierra snowpack is up, too, but also just a fraction of what it normally is this time of year.

Keep your fingers crossed...


The water situation is interesting right now. All the smaller local reservoirs in the SF Bay Area are full and soils are saturated. Rainfall is running up to 200% of normal and even when the forecast is for clearing, instead we get a constant mist or light rain between storms, probably thanks to our ridiculously mild SSTs. Meanwhile, these storms have weakened beyond the coast ranges, dumping less precip in the Sierras than one would expect given the amounts falling at the coast. Nonetheless, what has fallen, mostly as rain, has in fact caused water levels to rise at the major reservoirs at Shasta, Folsom, Oroville and so on. What we need are some authentic "Pineapple Connection" storms (the ones so-called so far were not) which dump multiple feet of snow for the summer melt. Like the ones that caught the Donner Party in the 1840s and the City of San Francisco in the 1950s. Or 1968-9 when several of these storms put down over 400 inches of snowpack.
Not one but 2 Ric.


scott...the ecmwf means still shows a weak event...nothing like the inaccurate at this time cfsv2......you might want to note....that the professional met offices....have a longer range portrayal for the cfsv2 than what you've uded in the last blog....and it depicts conditions below the el nino threshold in september...so regardless that it's in error at the moment...to conclude that next winter will be warmer based on the cfsv2....well......that could be in error also
Those long range models have been working out really well so far:)

december 12th extreme cold ring a bell???????/
When it comes to impact and the Human toll, Cyclone Nargis 2008 stands out as the Killer of life in the N. Indian Ocean basin.


Formed 27 April 2008
Dissipated 3 May 2008
Highest winds 3-minute sustained: 165 km/h (105 mph)
1-minute sustained: 215 km/h (130 mph)
Lowest pressure 962 mbar (hPa); 28.41 inHg

Fatalities 138,366 total

Damage $10 billion (2008 USD)
Areas affected Bangladesh, Burma, India, Sri Lanka
Part of the 2008 North Indian Ocean cyclone season


Scott, please, enough with the long range Nino models. These models are less accurate then the long range hurricane models that Dr. Gray and others put out.



ENSO Forecast Page
Note: Our ENSO forecast skills are very low, i.e. recent “results indicate skills somewhat lower than those found for the less advanced models of the 1980s and 1990s” “This finding” “suggests that decadal variations in the character of ENSO variability are a greater skill-determining factor than the steady but gradual trend toward improved ENSO prediction science and models.” Barnston et al. Furthermore, “model predictions of ENSO made before March-May have been shown to have very low skill. The low skill is caused by the Spring Prediction Barrier, which is discussed in the IRI webpage” here and here. Bob Tisdale
What we need are some authentic "Pineapple Connection" storms (the ones so-called so far were not) which dump multiple feet of snow for the summer melt.


snow baby snow!!!!!.....we're seeing a good chance of rain thanx to the travelling storms from southern california....too warm for snow for us....and looking at no chance of snow for the holidays instead mid 60's
18. vis0
Thank you Dr Jeff "♪hey ain't heavy he's my "boulder"♪" Masters
just spent 10 days in latin america its dry down there. their last rainy season was fickle now during the dry times its getting downright dusty. not a sign of rain last two weeks
Quoting NativeSun:
Scott, please, enough with the long range Nino models. These models are less accurate then the long range hurricane models that Dr. Gray and others put out.




if you dont like it put him on ignore list he has the right too talk about what ever he wants there was other bloger on here that was doing the same stuff too him and gust what ended up happening he got bannd has he did not no when to stop picking on some one so plzs this used the ignore tool thats is what it is there for
Quoting 4. NativeSun:

Scott, please, enough with the long range Nino models. These models are less accurate then the long range hurricane models that Dr. Gray and others put out.
he's allowed to post whatever weather thing he wants to native, give the guy a break ok..get ready for the stormy week ahead.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

thanks for the lunch time read doc
have a good day
Tuesday should be my best chance for rain. I'm up to 21 days with no rain at the house. .01" for December in the city.
Next week's rain will be welcome.
Unfortunately, I have family coming in town that day. Timing is everything. We've always told my sister she has a special ability to bring rain with her whenever she comes to visit.
A wall of moving water is a powerful thing as Mother Nature goes when a large volume gets set in motion; you just need to get out of the way..................................
Map shows how dry December has been across the Gulf Coast and S.E. Many areas haven't seen any precipitation this month.
25. Patrap
11:55 AM EST on December 18, 2014


My favorite post-Zep song by Plant since Ship of Fools.................Thanks.
Quoting 28. Sfloridacat5:

Map shows how dry December has been across the Gulf Coast and S.E. Many areas haven't seen any precipitation this month.



Been real dry in NW Florida and now the high chances of rain for Friday and Saturday have dropped from 80% and 90% down to 40% and 20%, seems the Low is weak and the majority of rain is going to pass to our North. Maybe we'll have better luck closer to Christmas.

Map shows how dry December has been across the Gulf Coast and S.E. Many areas haven't seen any precipitation this month.


a very dry "dry" season
Must be some kind of force field over NW Florida keeping the rain out as the Low passes by.

Looks like our low that the ECMWF was predicting all week is now degenerating into an open wave that will track across the northern Gulf before stalling on a stationary front across the Panhandle tomorrow night. The wave then loses most of its definition as the front turns stationary. It now appears that anyone in the Northeast hoping for something out this is going to be disappointed. The chances for rain in any one spot down here have decreased dramatically as the rain now looks to be more cellular in nature rather than a more general stratiform rain. If I'm lucky to get under the right cell, I might get half an inch. Otherwise, I don't get squat from this one.

For Sunday through Tuesday, we have a low probability chance for a shower with the stalled front to the south serving as a focus for a few more weak waves. By Tuesday night, a supposedly stronger ULL finally sweeps the front further south as the ULL moves out to sea and dies. We'll see, since these kinds of stalled fronts like to hang around longer than predicted. If the ULL does move the front, we should have a mostly sunny and seasonably cool Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Given the orientation of the front, the chances of any cold air invasion is about zero. The ECMWF failed on this weekend's prediction while the GFS was closer to right with a weak low further south. I'm not buying any big winter weather event for the last week of the year until the NAO finally turns negative. It has been predicted to turn negative "next week" for the last three weeks and the NAO remains stubbornly positive. We're not going to see any significant winter storms or any hope of southern and northern lows phasing until we get a negative NAO.
Thank-you, Dr, Masters. That's incredibly impressive about Haiyan's storm surge!

This is not exactly a tropical update, but I'm up here in NW VT where we have had lots of snow, four branches down in our driveway and power outages. The crews have worked hard and mostly everyone has power back again. My birch trees are bent to the ground, and some may not recover this time. But we have done okay, all things considered. I thought folks might appreciate a few photos.

Day 1: Trees


Day 3: Power Crew and Tree Service


Day 5: Road
Quoting 69Viking:
Must be some kind of force field over NW Florida keeping the rain out as the Low passes by.

I don't know what that darker green is supposed to mean but no one down here is getting much rain from the weak open wave. You should get some showers on Saturday with the chance for a a shower or two through Tuesday. It's not going to be a gully washer by any means, and the chance for thunderstorms is about a low as we can get without it being zero. It does stay relatively warm for us though, with a high near 70 if we get enough sunny breaks, with 60's otherwise.
Quoting listenerVT:
Thank-you, Dr, Masters. That's incredibly impressive about Haiyan's storm surge!

This is not exactly a tropical update, but I'm up here in NW VT where we have had lots of snow, four branches down in our driveway and power outages. The crews have worked hard and mostly everyone has power back again. My birch trees are bent to the ground, and some may not recover this time. But we have done okay, all things considered. I thought folks might appreciate a few photos.

Trees


Power Crew and Tree Service


Road (5 days later)
Dang. Looks like the definition of "heavy, wet snow". I imagine the skiers are not too happy about this.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Tuesday should be my best chance for rain. I'm up to 21 days with no rain at the house. .01" for December in the city.
Next week's rain will be welcome.
Unfortunately, I have family coming in town that day. Timing is everything. We've always told my sister she has a special ability to bring rain with her whenever she comes to visit.
Unfortunately, that looks like a pretty optimistic rain picture for you. The front should be mostly dry by the time it gets to you, and that may not happen until Christmas, depending on how long the front stalls over norther Florida. The dynamics for this whole system are pretty terrible looking right now. I feel your pain though. We are at 0.30" for the month, and 0.26" of that is only because one cell formed right over me last Sunday. Otherwise, we've had almost no rain for December, and only 1.02" for November, about three inches below normal. The warm, wet winter that El Nino is supposed to bring has certainly not showed up in the Deep South yet.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
A wall of moving water is a powerful thing as Mother Nature goes when a large volume gets set in motion; you just need to get out of the way..................................
Having stood on the banks on the Russian river with the flow at 190,000 cubic feet per second, watching 180 foot redwood trees speed past like cigarette boats, makes a mere boulder look pretty unimpressive.
It's quite overcast here. Looks like the rain is on it's way.





Quoting sar2401:
Having stood on the banks on the Russian river with the flow at 190,000 cubic feet per second, watching 180 foot redwood trees speed past like cigarette boats, makes a mere boulder look pretty unimpressive.
Well, trees float, of course. Boulders, not so much. So there's that...
12z CMC for 10 days out. That is some biting cold.



It should progress east, albeit not to the same level of cold that the Midwest may see. This is what we've been expecting though. A mild December, with another very warm shot on the way over the next several days, followed by much colder weather to start the new year. I'm becoming more uncertain on whether it gets all the way to the East Coast though. With storms tracking through the Great Lakes for the foreseeable future, some of the very aggressive snow forecasts for the East Coast are going to start falling into jeopardy.
Quoting 41. Neapolitan:

Well, trees float, of course. Boulders, not so much. So there's that...


Up on that er, Ala. Mountain in da Lazy Boy comes to mind fer me .

Gazing down on us mere mortals I think he think's.

saw a great meteor shower last week spotted over 15 in an hr period w. cen nicaraqua
Quoting 13. ricderr:

Not one but 2 Ric.


scott...the ecmwf means still shows a weak event...nothing like the inaccurate at this time cfsv2......you might want to note....that the professional met offices....have a longer range portrayal for the cfsv2 than what you've uded in the last blog....and it depicts conditions below the el nino threshold in september...so regardless that it's in error at the moment...to conclude that next winter will be warmer based on the cfsv2....well......that could be in error also


Yeah in May if you can read the model right but as you can see it appears the trend up from that point on is up by looking at most of those ensembles and that matches the CFSv2 perfectly for that time frame (May). Again what those models are seeing is another warm pool currently west of the Dateline moving east after the first of the year. Also the 4th highest PDO ever in November of 1.72 doesn't bodewell for neutral or weak El-Nino either.

CFSv2


Euro
Quoting 31. ricderr:


Map shows how dry December has been across the Gulf Coast and S.E. Many areas haven't seen any precipitation this month.


a very dry "dry" season


A very dry "Dry Season"?? What about the 5" to 10" areawide in November across C & N FL and the heavy rain that is on the way infact the rain we get late Sunday thru Tuesday could put most of us above what is average for December. I'll give you that it has been dry so far this December but that is about to change as I have been saying for sometime now that around December 20th the pattern is going to turn wet for FL well here here we go.

Again what those models are seeing is another warm pool currently west of the Dateline moving east after the first of the year. Also the 4th highest PDO ever in November of 1.72 doesn't bodewell for neutral or weak El-Nino either.


well scott...maybe for once you'll be right....still though.....the euro means is depicting a weak event...if you care to speculate past it's model run...go for it.....as for the cfsv2...it sure does depict what you are saying.....however...it's the only model doing so...and noaa......michael ventrice...and others more notable than any blogger here....have explained the errors....you're more than welcome to ignore these experts....i'll never challenge that...
Global-warming true believers are in denial
I have a theory as to why Americans don’t worry all that much about global warming: High-profile purveyors of climate change don’t push for reductions in greenhouse gases so much as focus on berating people who do not agree with their opinions. They call themselves champions of “the science” — yet focus on ideology more than tangible results.
Their language is downright evangelical. Recently, science guy Bill Nye joined other experts who objected to the media’s use of the term “climate skeptic.” They released a statement that concluded, “Please stop using the word 'skeptic’ to describe deniers.” Deniers? Like Judas?
Why, they even hear voices from science. “Science has spoken,” U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently proclaimed. Some men think God talks to them; others hear Science.
Back to my original point: San Francisco liberal plutocrat Tom Steyer has called climate change “the defining issue of our generation.” He told the Hill, “Really, what we’re trying to do is to make a point that people who make good decisions on this should be rewarded, and people should be aware that if they do the wrong thing, the American voters are watching and they will be punished.”
You would assume from the above statement that Steyer wants to punish businesses or people who emit a super-size share of greenhouse gases. But no, Steyer’s big push for 2014 was to spend some $73 million to defeat Republicans who support the Keystone XL pipeline. But stopping Keystone won’t reduce America’s dependence on fossil fuels by one drop. It simply will make it harder to tap into Canadian tar-sands oil.
On Monday, state Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León said he plans on introducing a measure to require that the California Public Employees’ Retirement System sell off any coal-related investments. In recent years, demands for disinvestment have visited universities. In May, Stanford voted to forgo investments in coal mining. Student groups have been pushing for Harvard and the University of California to dump fossil-fuel assets as well. It’s a good sign that those efforts have not prevailed at either institution. It’s a bad sign that de León has found a new soft target — CalPERS.
The problem, Harvard Professor Robert N. Stavins wrote for the Wall Street Journal, is: “Symbolic actions often substitute for truly effective actions by allowing us to fool ourselves into thinking we are doing something meaningful about a problem when we are not.” Disinvestment also does nothing to reduce energy use.
Matt Dempsey of Oil Sands Fact Check sees disinvestment as the new environmental talking point for 2016 races. It requires no visible personal sacrifice — while feeding activists’ sense of self-righteousness. Its emptiness is part of the allure. De León even told reporters that he’d write a bill that in no way “hurts investment strategies.”
Then there are the conferences — Kyoto, Copenhagen, Rio de Janeiro. The venues for Earth summits would make for a great episode of “Where in the World Is Carmen Sandiego?” The scions of science ought to get acquainted with Skype. If the future of the planet is at stake, shouldn’t the champions of science at least look as if they’re trying to curb their emissions?
Debra J. Saunders is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. E-mail: dsaunders@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @DebraJSaunders

Interesting point of view.
"..amplified by a long-wave phenomenon called infragravity waves or surf beat..."
Quoting 28. Sfloridacat5:

Map shows how dry December has been across the Gulf Coast and S.E. Many areas haven't seen any precipitation this month.

The locals say that its normal to have a 'dry' (relative to the other seasons) winter here in NW FL.. regarding the blog article.. I just read the linked content about the infragravity waves.. this is really interesting stuff. I did my 7th grade science report on tsunamis (A+) so it was interesting to see the simularities between the 2 types of waves..
Quoting LAbonbon:
It's quite overcast here. Looks like the rain is on it's way.





Nice to see someone might get some rain out of this. It appears that the low/open wave might now track a little further offshore in the Gulf than even the current models are depicting. If that's the case, my chances for rain decline a little more than a low tracking over the Panhandle. I think the WPC is smoking wacky weed though. That "2.0" X is literally right over my house. If I get two inches of rain over the next seven days, I'll happily eat my tennis shoe. :-)
Quoting 48. HiDesertRat:
Interesting point of view.
Alternate headline: Politically conservative writer pens alarmist opinion piece slamming science and scientists, while supporting the high-polluting status quo because freedom.

Huge shock, that. ;-)
Quoting 48. HiDesertRat:

Global-warming true believers are in denial
I have a theory as to why Americans don’t worry all that much about global warming: High-profile purveyors of climate change don’t push for reductions in greenhouse gases so much as focus on berating people who do not agree with their opinions. They call themselves champions of “the science” — yet focus on ideology more than tangible results.
Their language is downright evangelical. Recently, science guy Bill Nye joined other experts who objected to the media’s use of the term “climate skeptic.” They released a statement that concluded, “Please stop using the word 'skeptic’ to describe deniers.” Deniers? Like Judas?
Why, they even hear voices from science. “Science has spoken,” U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently proclaimed. Some men think God talks to them; others hear Science.
Back to my original point: San Francisco liberal plutocrat Tom Steyer has called climate change “the defining issue of our generation.” He told the Hill, “Really, what we’re trying to do is to make a point that people who make good decisions on this should be rewarded, and people should be aware that if they do the wrong thing, the American voters are watching and they will be punished.”
You would assume from the above statement that Steyer wants to punish businesses or people who emit a super-size share of greenhouse gases. But no, Steyer’s big push for 2014 was to spend some $73 million to defeat Republicans who support the Keystone XL pipeline. But stopping Keystone won’t reduce America’s dependence on fossil fuels by one drop. It simply will make it harder to tap into Canadian tar-sands oil.
On Monday, state Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León said he plans on introducing a measure to require that the California Public Employees’ Retirement System sell off any coal-related investments. In recent years, demands for disinvestment have visited universities. In May, Stanford voted to forgo investments in coal mining. Student groups have been pushing for Harvard and the University of California to dump fossil-fuel assets as well. It’s a good sign that those efforts have not prevailed at either institution. It’s a bad sign that de León has found a new soft target — CalPERS.
The problem, Harvard Professor Robert N. Stavins wrote for the Wall Street Journal, is: “Symbolic actions often substitute for truly effective actions by allowing us to fool ourselves into thinking we are doing something meaningful about a problem when we are not.” Disinvestment also does nothing to reduce energy use.
Matt Dempsey of Oil Sands Fact Check sees disinvestment as the new environmental talking point for 2016 races. It requires no visible personal sacrifice — while feeding activists’ sense of self-righteousness. Its emptiness is part of the allure. De León even told reporters that he’d write a bill that in no way “hurts investment strategies.”
Then there are the conferences — Kyoto, Copenhagen, Rio de Janeiro. The venues for Earth summits would make for a great episode of “Where in the World Is Carmen Sandiego?” The scions of science ought to get acquainted with Skype. If the future of the planet is at stake, shouldn’t the champions of science at least look as if they’re trying to curb their emissions?
Debra J. Saunders is a San Francisco Chronicle columnist. E-mail: dsaunders@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @DebraJSaunders

Interesting point of view.


As much as the deniers will drive you crazy the self righteous are even worse.
Quoting 51. Neapolitan:

Alternate headline: Politically conservative writer pens alarmist opinion piece slamming science and scientists, while supporting the high-polluting status quo because freedom.

Huge shock, that. ;-)


Good point.
Quoting 46. StormTrackerScott:



A very dry "Dry Season"?? What about the 5" to 10" areawide in November across C & N FL and the heavy rain that is on the way infact the rain we get late Sunday thru Tuesday could put most of us above what is average for December. I'll give you that it has been dry so far this December but that is about to change as I have been saying for sometime now that around December 20th the pattern is going to turn wet for FL well here here we go.




Since early-mid October, central FL has only had one really significant rain event. Given the upper level dynamics in place, that one event happened to drop significant rainfall. Other than that, it's been extremely dry, which is to be expected this time of the year. For you to infer that there is a wet pattern in place is incorrect, and for once I wish you wouldn't flood this blog with inaccurate information. One heavy rain event is not tantamount to a wet pattern.
Since it is Thursday, what season is it in Florida?

Rainy or Dry?

TIA.
Very interesting video on the storm surge, although I'm not surprised the building(s) didn't survive the impact. I remember being stationed on Johnson Atoll/Island (U.S. Army, JACADS) for over a year, and we took an almost direct hit from a hurricane (name escapes me) in 1989/90-ish. The highest point on the Atoll was as I remember less than 10 feet above sea level! A small security detail (myself) was left on the island to ensure the WMD's stored there were safe after the storm passed. The Atoll completely disappeared during the storm.......like a sinking ship.


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Thank you.
Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters,
Quoting 58. Dakster:



Dry, according to the neighbor that has had to put water in my pool in Miami. But it has been a cool winter so far according to some family and friends.

Makes sense since it is scorching hot here according to my neighbors up here in AK. There hasn't been one below zero day yet this winter. And we are down almost 2 feet in the amount of snow that should be on the ground.


I have had to put water in my pool almost weekly since the dry season began (aside from the November rain event). I wish it had been half as wet as Scott claims as I would save on a lot of water going into my pool and my yard.
Quoting 65. tampabaymatt:



I have had to put water in my pool almost weekly since the dry season began (aside from the November rain event). I wish it had been half as wet as Scott claims as I would save on a lot of water going into my pool and my yard.


As I have noticed many times myself - being even a block or two in one direction or the other in Florida can be the difference between flooding and drought.
Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 9:43 AM AKST on December 18, 2014
Clear
15.6 °F / -9.1 °C
Windchill: 16 °F / -9 °C

Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 14 °F / -10 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.51 in / 999 hPa (Falling)
NICE
We're almost halfway to our Goal with 13 days left to make it there!


Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign



The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season.

Jeff Masters
Quoting luvtogolf:


Pounding my head against the wall....
This is what Melbourne NWS says about the period Sunday through Wednesday. No mention of heavy rain, just 50% rain chances. I suspect even that may be optimistic given model performance so far.

WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT AOB 50PCT. A
PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV
AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP OFFSET THIS EFFECT
IN THE DAYTIME. AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M70S N OF I-4...M/U70S TO THE S.
MIN TEMPS U50S/L6S0 INTERIOR AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST.
Quoting tlawson48:


As much as the deniers will drive you crazy the self righteous are even worse.
Although she has a point about Skype. The amount of energy and money expended in Lima last week to produce zero results should produce some outrage.
Dry season for most Florida cities begins in the month of October. September is normally a very wet month state wide.

Orlando, actual precipitation (Oct. 1 - Dec. 18)

October - .69"
November - 4.83"
Dec. to date - .71
Total - 6.23"

Normal precipitation (Oct. 1 - Dec.18)

October - 3.31"
November - 2.17"
Dec. to date - 1.60
Total - 7.80"

Since the beginning of October, Orlando is below average in precipitation.

We know there was an area just north of Orlando that received a ton of rain back in November. But that rain event wasn't representative of the rest of the state (not even for the city of Orlando).

Heavy, wet snow for this time of year. Let's hope we don't see a repeat of Jan 1998 type event this year for you folks (or for anyone for that matter).

Quoting 34. listenerVT:

Thank-you, Dr, Masters. That's incredibly impressive about Haiyan's storm surge!

This is not exactly a tropical update, but I'm up here in NW VT where we have had lots of snow, four branches down in our driveway and power outages. The crews have worked hard and mostly everyone has power back again. My birch trees are bent to the ground, and some may not recover this time. But we have done okay, all things considered. I thought folks might appreciate a few photos.

Day 1: Trees


Day 3: Power Crew and Tree Service


Day 5: Road

New update by CPC of Mid-December mentions that a Moderate El Nino is not ruled out but also says some atmospheric conditions are still not behaving like El Nino. The update is posted at my ENSO Blog. Here is the Mid-December plume of models.

Quoting 72. Sfloridacat5:

Dry season for most Florida cities begins in the month of October. September is normally a very wet month state wide.

Orlando, actual precipitation (Oct. 1 - Dec. 18)

October - .69"
November - 4.83"
Dec. to date - .71
Total - 6.23"

Normal precipitation (Oct. 1 - Dec.18)

October - 3.31"
November - 2.17"
Dec. to date - 1.60
Total - 7.80"

Since the beginning of October, Orlando is below average in precipitation.

We know there was an area just north of Orlando that received a ton of rain back in November. But that rain event wasn't representative of the rest of the state (not even for the city of Orlando).




With the exception of one day, it has been dry across the area. Not what I would call a wet season. It does appear that we will get some beneficial December rains M/W. Not looking for flooding rains or severe weather. Dynamics don't seem to support anything severe.
Quoting sar2401:
Although she has a point about Skype. The amount of energy and money expended in Lima last week to produce zero results should produce some outrage.
Perhaps. But the vast majority of climate science isn't discussed at far-flung symposia and conferences; it's done via email, Skype, or other web-based technologies. Here the author brings it up as a not-so-sly way of convincing low-information types that if there were really a problem, no one would burn a speck of fossil fuels. But it's an inane thing to say, and it truly makes no sense; in fact, it's about as logical as declaring that because a doctor somewhere smokes cigarettes, lung cancer doesn't exist. But she clearly counts on her audience to not look into the reality of things...
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Dry season for most Florida cities begins in the month of October. September is normally a very wet month state wide.

Orlando, actual precipitation (Oct. 1 - Dec. 18)

October - .69"
November - 4.83"
Dec. to date - .71
Total - 6.23"

Normal precipitation (Oct. 1 - Dec.18)

October - 3.31"
November - 2.17"
Dec. to date - 1.60
Total - 7.80"

Since the beginning of October, Orlando is below average in precipitation.

We know there was an area just north of Orlando that received a ton of rain back in November. But that rain event wasn't representative of the rest of the state (not even for the city of Orlando).

And of the November total for Orlando, 2.75" fell one just one day, November 26. If not for that one day rainfall, Orlando would have joined Pensacola (and me) in being far below average for rainfall. The very nature of convective rain is some places will get substantially more than others but those places are not indicative of a widespread rainfall pattern.
Quoting 77. sar2401:

And of the November total for Orlando, 2.75" fell one just one day, November 26. If not for that one day rainfall, Orlando would have joined Pensacola (and me) in being far below average for rainfall. The very nature of convective rain is some places will get substantially more than others but those places are not indicative of a widespread rainfall pattern.


Yeah, most of the major cities in Florida have experienced near or below average precipitation since the beginning of the dry season. Here's a few quick cities I pulled up.

From Oct. 1 - Dec. 18 precipitation (normal vs. actual)

Tallahassee
Actual - 8.76"
Normal - 8.93"

Jacksonville
Actual - 3.67"
Normal - 5.94"

Tampa
Actual - 6.86"
Normal - 5.36"

Miami
Actual - 6.78"
Normal - 10.71"
New update by CPC of Mid-December mentions that a Moderate El Nino is not ruled out but also says some atmospheric conditions are still not behaving like El Nino


true....but they aren't very keen on a strong el nino


The consensus of model predictions calls for a weak El Niño event, although a moderate event cannot be ruled out. A strong event appears virtually impossible
Quoting 80. ricderr:

New update by CPC of Mid-December mentions that a Moderate El Nino is not ruled out but also says some atmospheric conditions are still not behaving like El Nino


true....but they aren't very keen on a strong el nino


The consensus of model predictions calls for a weak El Niño event, although a moderate event cannot be ruled out. A strong event appears virtually impossible


Really? Impossible? No epic super duper El Nino wiping out next years hurricane season and flooding Florida this and next year?
This pretty much means El-Nino is going to be declared very soon with this increase from 65% to 83%.

one year compare maps


Ending 2014 a little cold if this verifies -being the GFS major changes to come. I believe the coldest we've seen so far this season is 46 degrees here in Fort Myers.

another set compare maps 1 year

Quoting 76. Neapolitan:

Perhaps. But the vast majority of climate science isn't discussed at far-flung symposia and conferences; it's done via email, Skype, or other web-based technologies. Here the author brings it up as a not-so-sly way of convincing low-information types that if there were really a problem, no one would burn a speck of fossil fuels. But it's an inane thing to say, and it truly makes no sense; in fact, it's about as logical as declaring that because a doctor somewhere smokes cigarettes, lung cancer doesn't exist. But she clearly counts on her audience to not look into the reality of things...



If no science is discussed why burn fossil fuels to attend????
Quoting 61. Phaselinear:

Very interesting video on the storm surge, although I'm not surprised the building(s) didn't survive the impact. I remember being stationed on Johnson Atoll/Island (U.S. Army, JACADS) for over a year, and we took an almost direct hit from a hurricane (name escapes me) in 1989/90-ish. The highest point on the Atoll was as I remember less than 10 feet above sea level! A small security detail (myself) was left on the island to ensure the WMD's stored there were safe after the storm passed. The Atoll completely disappeared during the storm.......like a sinking ship.


Wow, what an interesting experience, glad you survived and thank you for your service.
Model guidance continues to indicate a period of stratospheric warming in the extended range. We've seen several small-scale warming events that have acted to weaken the polar vortex, but we've not yet seen a warming event significant enough to split it. That might change with the upcoming event. By the end of the month, the GFS is indicating a total split of the vortex at 10mb, while farther down, at 50mb, the ECMWF is indicating the classic "figure 8" pattern indicating a near split.

A split of the polar vortex is the final piece of the puzzle in what should be a cold January and even colder February.

Images from Twitter.


Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Model guidance continues to indicate a period of stratospheric warming in the extended range. We've seen several small-scale warming events that have acted to weaken the polar vortex, but we've not yet seen a warming event significant enough to split it. That might change with the upcoming event. By the end of the month, the GFS is indicating a total split of the vortex at 10mb, while farther down, at 50mb, the ECMWF is indicating the classic "figure 8" pattern indicating a near split.

A split of the polar vortex is the final piece of the puzzle in what should be a cold January and even colder February.

Images from Twitter.





With the southern jet getting so active now I suspect that as we head into January that there is going to be some real interesting weather across the South. Moisture is settling back into place now we just need some cold air to get some "Fun" going.

Thanks for the post TA!
Quoting 42. MAweatherboy1:

12z CMC for 10 days out. That is some biting cold.



It should progress east, albeit not to the same level of cold that the Midwest may see. This is what we've been expecting though. A mild December, with another very warm shot on the way over the next several days, followed by much colder weather to start the new year. I'm becoming more uncertain on whether it gets all the way to the East Coast though. With storms tracking through the Great Lakes for the foreseeable future, some of the very aggressive snow forecasts for the East Coast are going to start falling into jeopardy.
A repeat of the 010-2011 winter is looking like a real possibility.Where we get all the useless rain and the great lakes take all the snow.
CPC has come out with updated month and 3 month period outlooks. I am liking the temps. Definitely looks like El-Nino




Quoting 91. tampabaymatt:




So looking like .5 to maybe 2" for Central Fl.
Quoting 93. luvtogolf:



So looking like .5 to maybe 2" for Central Fl.


We'll see. Earlier today it was showing more rain than this for the Tampa area. It doesn't seem like the models have really latched on yet on where the heaviest rains will fall. It would be nice to get 1"-2" over a 2-3 day period. We could use it in Tampa.
Quoting 94. tampabaymatt:



We'll see. Earlier today it was showing more rain than this for the Tampa area. It doesn't seem like the models have really latched on yet on where the heaviest rains will fall. It would be nice to get 1"-2" over a 2-3 day period. We could use it in Tampa.


It seems that models are backing off the strength of the low. We'll see. We should get rain but I don't anticipate anything too crazy.
Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:
...
A split of the polar vortex is the final piece of the puzzle in what should be a cold January and even colder February.

Forecasting all the way into February!?
Now that takes some guts...
Quoting 96. ScottLincoln:


Forecasting all the way into February!?
Now that takes some guts...

Just a prediction based on ENSO and select analogs for this winter season. We'll see how it goes. :)
Quoting 96. ScottLincoln:


Forecasting all the way into February!?
Now that takes some guts...


One guy is already forecasting next years hurricane season and next winter.
Quoting 95. luvtogolf:



It seems that models are backing off the strength of the low. We'll see. We should get rain but I don't anticipate anything too crazy.


Agreed. It'll be interesting to see what the models show tomorrow.
Quoting 86. yoboi:




If no science is discussed why burn fossil fuels to attend????

Although nothing is insignificant, its cutting things beyond the bone to suggest that people who have or might have an ability to understand and possibly adjust a major global affliction might also have to consider the ecological costs of going to a meeting in order to determine a course of action.

It might also be considered, that if a person is freezing to death with cold, wold they not light a fire to keep themselves warm.
Or if someone was drowning, would they not call for assistance by way of a boat or helicopter, not possibly for a moment taking into account the carbon footprint of their actions!

Perhaps we should start to consider not only the CO2 contributions of barbecues but also the decomposition of the waste food products of an affluent society.

Then again its probably only arbitrary at this stage of the climate change equation?



some cold weather coming next week!
Friday
Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will soak parts of Texas east to the Deep South and Lower Mississippi Valley. A few storms may be strong with damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two.

Saturday
Rain and a few t-storms will spread through the Southeast and northern Gulf Coast. We can't rule out some light snow, sleet or freezing rain in a few areas of the Appalachians and adjacent piedmont of Virginia and western North Carolina, but amounts should be light and any icing should be patchy and minimal.

Heavy, wind-driven rain and mountain snow will pummel the Pacific Northwest and far northwest California. Flash flooding, mud/rockslides may occur in western Washington and western Oregon.

Sunday
Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will linger in the Southeast and along parts of the Gulf Coast, including Florida.

Some light snow or flurries are possible in the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.

Mountain snow will continue in the Rockies and Cascades, with yet more low-elevation rain continuing in western Washington and western Oregon. Flash flooding may worsen and mud/rockslides may become more numerous in the Pacific Northwest.

As of this writing, it appears that there may be a higher-impact storm (or two) in the cards closer to Christmas itself.
103. flsky
I agree in thanking you for your service. Please everyone, don't forget to thank those also who are kind to family and others, work hard and pay their own way, raise their children to be law-abiding and responsible, support their communities, act in a charitable manner, etc., etc. These are also the heroes.

Quoting 87. Pipejazz:



Wow, what an interesting experience, glad you survived and thank you for your service.
104. vis0

Quoting 41. Neapolitan:

Well, trees float, of course. Boulders, not so much. So there's that...
unless you count those heavy rocks at Racetrack Playa - Death Valley (are or almost boulders) and the stones or boulders  in which i THINK a Tsunami moved them from south of Greenland to Bermuda or was it The Bahamas MANY i mean MANY years ago


the weather for friday december 19 2014
Quoting hurricanes2018:



some cold weather coming next week!


It might be a little chilly for the people watching the ball in New York City on New Years.
Quoting 82. StormTrackerScott:

This pretty much means El-Nino is going to be declared very soon with this increase from 65% to 83%.


This is not the consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters, in accordance with the official CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.

Your figure is purely objective, based on regression, using equally weighted model predictions from the plume. That is not the official forecast.

The official forecast is here:
Quoting 96. ScottLincoln:


Forecasting all the way into February!?
Now that takes some guts...


I agree. The models can't even get the medium range right (4-8 days) let alone months in advance based on "indicators".
Quoting 49. JNFlori30A:

"..amplified by a long-wave phenomenon called infragravity waves or surf beat..." The locals say that its normal to have a 'dry' (relative to the other seasons) winter here in NW FL.. regarding the blog article.. I just read the linked content about the infragravity waves.. this is really interesting stuff. I did my 7th grade science report on tsunamis (A ) so it was interesting to see the simularities between the 2 types of waves..

It's normal here in southeast Florida as well
Quoting 96. ScottLincoln:


Forecasting all the way into February!?
Now that takes some guts...
Quoting 108. Drakoen:



I agree. The models can't even get the medium range right (4-8 days) let alone months in advance based on "indicators".

I'm not understanding the problem here. Hurricane forecasts are made in the same regard, by identifying years that have a similar pattern and trying to best forecast the outcome. ENSO is a huge part in that. At this point, given what we've already observed with regards to stratospheric warming, I don't think it's at all outlandish to say that the polar vortex is eventually going to split, allowing for arctic air to spread across much of the United States later this winter.
Turned out to be a nice day today. Saw the sun - and it can stay behind the clouds if it isn't going to rise high up above the horizon. Driving is painful... Sunglasses a big plus.
Very interesting article on infragravity waves. I never knew what they were, but I have noticed them. I used to sit on my dock and fish during an incoming tide. I was about 1/4 mile from the ocean, so there were no waves there, but I could see that every few minutes the water level would slowly rise an inch or two up the pilings, then recede an inch or two.
Quoting 113. Dakster:

Turned out to be a nice day today. Saw the sun - and it can stay behind the clouds if it isn't going to rise high up above the horizon. Driving is painful... Sunglasses a big plus.
Quoting 110. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not understanding the problem here. Hurricane forecasts are made in the same regard, by identifying years that have a similar pattern and trying to best forecast the outcome. ENSO is a huge part in that. At this point, given what we've already observed with regards to stratospheric warming, I don't think it's at all outlandish to say that the polar vortex is eventually going to split, allowing for arctic air to spread across much of the United States later this winter.
its gonna split ta its a repeating pattern which seems to be happening more often
this time tomorrow

Date | 2014-12-19 19:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Wind + Temp @ 70hPa

70 hPa |

~17,500 m, stratosphere

I have just the math problem for everyone. Satellites have measured arctic sea ice coverage for 36 years. All the lowest 8 summer minima have happened in the last 8 years. What are the odds that all 8 lowest summer minima will have happened in the last 8 years if changes are trendless and random?
Quoting 118. BaltimoreBrian:

I have just the math problem for everyone. Satellites have measured arctic sea ice coverage for 36 years. All the lowest 8 summer minima have happened in the last 8 years. What are the odds that all 8 lowest summer minima will have happened in the last 8 years if changes are trendless and random?

Virtually Zero?
Quoting 66. Dakster:



As I have noticed many times myself - being even a block or two in one direction or the other in Florida can be the difference between flooding and drought.
AGREED
Well yes, but how close to zero? ;)
think it may be 5.94x10-6


Quoting 90. washingtonian115:

A repeat of the 010-2011 winter is looking like a real possibility.Where we get all the useless rain and the great lakes take all the snow.


Yeah, we've only got about 90 days of snow season left (Mid December to mid March) and of course nothing
could happen then.. right??

I'll go ahead and stick a fork in the 2015 TC season based on hopeless inactivity the first two weeks of June.

My real hunch is that sometime the first two weeks of January, the boreal fist will smash my winter garden hopes, at least for lettuce and broccoli.



Quoting 122. fragileuk:

think it may be 5.94x10-6


I see how you got that answer but it is not correct. Good try though.

Hint: The probability is lower than that.
NASA's Kepler Spacecraft Finds 1st Alien Planet of New Mission

Link
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Well yes, but how close to zero? ;)
Darn, I have to rack my brain to remember my probability classes again. OK, assuming each year's outcome is independent from every other year, we can use compound probabilities. If I'm correct in my calculations, which is really near zero, the probability of eight independent events occurring in series is .0039%. It's pretty near zero but not totally improbable.
Quoting 110. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm not understanding the problem here. Hurricane forecasts are made in the same regard, by identifying years that have a similar pattern and trying to best forecast the outcome. ENSO is a huge part in that. At this point, given what we've already observed with regards to stratospheric warming, I don't think it's at all outlandish to say that the polar vortex is eventually going to split, allowing for arctic air to spread across much of the United States later this winter.


Ask Klotzbach and Gray how well that's working out for them.
fragileuk is closer, Sar :) I'll give the solution (and how to get it) later tonight.
Quoting 124. BaltimoreBrian:



I see how you got that answer but it is not correct. Good try though.

Hint: The probability is lower than that.


Ah I was a factor of 10 out for each of the 8 (cals done in my head as not got a calc on me)- should be 1/36 to the power of 8 - but only if the last 8 years as you can ignore the previous ones. ifnot then the chances of not being the lowest must also be factored in.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
fragileuk is closer, Sar :) I'll give the solution (and how to get it) later tonight.
OK, I'll be interested to see your solution.
Quoting 129. fragileuk:



Ah I was a factor of 10 out for each of the 8 (cals done in my head as not got a calc on me)- should be 1/36 to the power of 8 - but only if the last 8 years as you can ignore the previous ones. ifnot then the chances of not being the lowest must also be factored in.



Off on the wrong trail, but good try!
Nature is lashing us with more wind and salt water and we deserve it.
Quoting 123. georgevandenberghe:



Yeah, we've only got about 90 days of snow season left (Mid December to mid March) and of course nothing
could happen then.. right??

I'll go ahead and stick a fork in the 2015 TC season based on hopeless inactivity the first two weeks of June.

My real hunch is that sometime the first two weeks of January, the boreal fist will smash my winter garden hopes, at least for lettuce and broccoli.




In the winter of 010-011 the precipitation and cold air did not link up except for one time or two the most.Other times the storms traveled through the great lakes bringing warm air with rain.What will be the point of the cold if it can't link up with the precipitation?.
Quoting fragileuk:


Ah I was a factor of 10 out for each of the 8 (cals done in my head as not got a calc on me)- should be 1/36 to the power of 8 - but only if the last 8 years as you can ignore the previous ones. ifnot then the chances of not being the lowest must also be factored in.
I did my calculation based on independent compound probability with only two outcomes - summer minima lowest for that year or summer minima not lowest. In that case, it should be .50 * 8. I'm sure Brian has a calculation that's not so primitive. :-)
Quoting 118. BaltimoreBrian:

I have just the math problem for everyone. Satellites have measured arctic sea ice coverage for 36 years. All the lowest 8 summer minima have happened in the last 8 years. What are the odds that all 8 lowest summer minima will have happened in the last 8 years if changes are trendless and random?

3.54*10^13?

Math is not my forte.

EDIT: nevermind, saw fragileuk's comments. That's the same way I got my answer.
Quoting Drakoen:


Ask Klotzbach and Gray how well that's working out for them.
I don't think TA is outlandish in his prediction. The pattern so far this year does indicate that we will get at least one good Arctic outbreak this winter. We've been saying that ourselves. Now when it will happen is another matter. Could be between January 1 and March 15, and I'm pretty sure any long range model is not going to be able to pin that down.
Quoting ohzone:
Nature is lashing us with more wind and salt water and we deserve it.
Where are you at? Wind is dead calm here and I'm not getting lashed by anything. I talked to Santa today and he said I was on the "Good" list this year so I don't think I deserve a lashing. :-)
Quoting 135. TropicalAnalystwx13:


3.54*10^13?

Math is not my forte.

EDIT: nevermind, saw fragileuk's comments. That's the same way I got my answer.


The other cal would be to add the probability of each year from the 28 onward being one of the lowest - but this cannot be done retrospectively but would be the probability as it happened ie would start with 1/28x1/29x 1/30.....

Further maths including density functions could be tried but not sure they would be used for this as its not a near zero event (before combination)- and I'm not even going to try - lol
Quoting vis0:

unless you count those heavy rocks at Racetrack Playa - Death Valley (are or almost boulders) and the stones or boulders  in which i THINK a Tsunami moved them from south of Greenland to Bermuda or was it The Bahamas MANY i mean MANY years ago
Or unless you count 500 gallon propane tanks, semi's, and Cat D7. They were headed downstream with the redwoods.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment


*** From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise


*** Cheap Oil Jamming Rails Means Higher U.S. Power Bills

*** Front Yards Turn to Wetlands in Virginia as Climate Change Takes Toll

Carbon dioxide satellite mission returns first global maps



Shrinking ship bubbles 'could counteract climate change'




* UK using less energy despite growing economy, report finds

* Australia heading in wrong direction on emissions targets


Improving rechargeable batteries by focusing on graphene oxide paper



!!! Kepler proves it can still find planets



!!! How will climate change transform agriculture?

*** 'Tipping points' for sea level rise related flooding determined

!!! Clearing tropical rainforests distorts Earth's wind and water systems, packs climate wallop beyond carbon



!!! Fine particulate air pollution linked with increased autism risk

*** Climate change could cut world food output 18 percent by 2050

Arctic still heating up twice as fast as rest of planet (with video)

Is New York governor's ban on fracking grounded in science? (with video)


*** The Strange Tale of a New Species of Lizard

* A Picture Captures Planets Waiting to Be Born (with video) Beautiful!

Feathered Forecasters? Tiny Birds Knew Killer Tornadoes Were Coming
Quoting 138. fragileuk:



The other cal would be to add the probability of each year from the 28 onward being one of the lowest - but this cannot be done retrospectively but would be the probability as it happened ie would start with 1/28x1/29x 1/30.....

Further maths including density functions could be tried but not sure they would be used for this as its not a near zero event (before combination)- and I'm not even going to try - lol


Getting warmer....
http://www.twainquotes.com/statistics2.jpg
CSU 2015 Atlantic hurricane season predictions are 8-15 named storms, 3-9 hurricanes,1-4 major.
The answer is ~3.305 x 10-8

or exactly 1/30,260,340

8/36 x 7/35 x 6/34 x 5/33 x 4/32 x 3/31 x 2/30 x 1/29
Quoting 141. BaltimoreBrian:



Getting warmer....


If you warmer is referring to the the 1/28 etc then that would not apply to the 8 out of the last 36 - as cannot work retrospectively. If warmer is to the density functions - then haven't worked with them since I worked on Factorial design and Abinitio calculations thesis stuff for chem degree back at uni in the 1980's - was glad to be shot of them - not going back there lol
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

The answer is ~3.305 x 10-8

or exactly 1/30,260,340

8/36 x 7/35 x 6/34 x 5/33 x 4/32 x 3/31 x 2/30 x 1/29


That rings a bell ! - as I said long long time ago that I did any of that stuff - but you have kept me entertained trying to do it while I am sitting in my car waiting outside a night club to pick my daughter up from her xmas prom. (It her first time allowed to a real club (annual after prom thing here) so I have arrived at midnight to sit and wait until 2am as I am very nervous about her being out sooo late! - thanks for keeping from just sitting worrying-lol
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

The answer is ~3.305 x 10-8

or exactly 1/30,260,340

8/36 x 7/35 x 6/34 x 5/33 x 4/32 x 3/31 x 2/30 x 1/29


I knew I should have paid attention in statistics. I really disliked that class.
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

The answer is ~3.305 x 10-8

or exactly 1/30,260,340

8/36 x 7/35 x 6/34 x 5/33 x 4/32 x 3/31 x 2/30 x 1/29


I got the same.
Quoting Dakster:


I knew I should have paid attention in statistics. I really disliked that class.
Quoting 149. BaltimoreBrian:




We all have our strengths and weaknesses. What makes this a great country is that we all have the opportunity to use our strengths together.

15F now and falling... I'm thinking single digits tonight are possible.
Quoting 118. BaltimoreBrian:

I have just the math problem for everyone. Satellites have measured arctic sea ice coverage for 36 years. All the lowest 8 summer minima have happened in the last 8 years. What are the odds that all 8 lowest summer minima will have happened in the last 8 years if changes are trendless and random?


Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

The answer is ~3.305 x 10-8

or exactly 1/30,260,340

8/36 x 7/35 x 6/34 x 5/33 x 4/32 x 3/31 x 2/30 x 1/29


Yep it's pretty elementary/easy, [(8!)(28!)]/(36!)

Just basically the fraction of the total number arrangements of 36 years with a particular 8 arranged in a certain group of 8 positions.

Or as you did it, place 1 year last, then the next year last or second to last, and the next year last, second to last, or third to last, divided by the number of options/places you could place that year, which obviously increases by 1 each time.

Counting and Probability and factorials always make for some interesting stuff.
Quoting 151. GeorgiaStormz:





Yep it's pretty elementary/easy, [(8!)(28!)]/(36!)

Just basically the fraction of the total number arrangements of 36 years with a particular 8 arranged in a certain group of 8 positions.

Or as you did it, place 1 year last, then the next year last or second to last, and the next year last, second to last, or third to last, divided by the number of options/places you could place that year, which obviously increases by 1 each time.

Counting and Probability and factorials always make for some interesting stuff.

Gee, it looks like changes in Arctic Sea ice coverage may not be "trendless and random".


nice spin in the northeast!!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The answer is ~3.305 x 10-8

or exactly 1/30,260,340

8/36 x 7/35 x 6/34 x 5/33 x 4/32 x 3/31 x 2/30 x 1/29
I knew the answer had to be better than my back of the envelope calculation. The real question now is, given that the probability of the eight lowest maxima of ice occurrence coming one after another is about 30 million to one, do we really trust this particular satellite and the data is produces?
Nearby Weather Stations much colder outside at on December 18, 2014
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
35.2 °F
DopplerDon.com
34.6 °F
Rock Hill
34.4 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
37.9 °F
Foxon
33.1 °F
East Haven Town Beach
35.5 °F
Yale, Kline Geology Lab
36.3 °F
Quoting 155. sar2401:

I knew the answer had to be better than my back of the envelope calculation. The real question now is, given that the probability of the eight lowest maxima of ice occurrence coming one after another is about 30 million to one, do we really trust this particular satellite and the data is produces?


It means that the assumptions in the original question are not all valid real-world assumptions. See post # 153.
Quoting 152. BaltimoreBrian:

Raw and 40s for highs, 30s for lows Dakster.


Sounds like it and enjoy the Holidays coming up too.
Quoting 158. Dakster:



Sounds like it and enjoy the Holidays coming up too.

How much snow do you still have?
Quoting 159. PedleyCA:


How much snow do you still have?


2"- 4"

Alyeska now has 57" on the upper mountain and the resort is reopening tomorrow.
Quoting 151. GeorgiaStormz:





Yep it's pretty elementary/easy, [(8!)(28!)]/(36!)

Just basically the fraction of the total number arrangements of 36 years with a particular 8 arranged in a certain group of 8 positions.

Or as you did it, place 1 year last, then the next year last or second to last, and the next year last, second to last, or third to last, divided by the number of options/places you could place that year, which obviously increases by 1 each time.

Counting and Probability and factorials always make for some interesting stuff.


This assumes the values aren't autocorrelated which means the value this year is completely independent of the value last year. This is generally not true for geophysical variables and is not true for sea ice where one extraordinary melt year (2007) will result in several years of easier melting as the new first year ice is more quickly melted than old multiyear ice. The reality is and remains though that the trend is steadily down in all seasons and a less impressive melting setup in 2012 resulted in a record melt so yes it's declining but the probability of these last 8 years happening in the absence of forcing is a little higher than 1:30m.. how much depends on the degree of autocorrelation.

Quoting 133. washingtonian115:

In the winter of 010-011 the precipitation and cold air did not link up except for one time or two the most.Other times the storms traveled through the great lakes bringing warm air with rain.What will be the point of the cold if it can't link up with the precipitation?.


We've got most of the winter left. Then of course there is the winter of 1941-42 which only got 1.5" out to March 29, then another foot to end the season.

It's far from over!
Quoting 162. georgevandenberghe:



We've got most of the winter left. Then of course there is the winter of 1941-42 which only got 1.5" out to March 29, then another foot to end the season.

It's far from over!


It isn't over until its over....

Just like here, it has snowed every month out of the year. So even though we are low on the snow count, it doesn't mean April/May won't bury us.
Quoting 162. georgevandenberghe:



We've got most of the winter left. Then of course there is the winter of 1941-42 which only got 1.5" out to March 29, then another foot to end the season.

It's far from over!


We have ALL of the Winter LEFT. It didn't start yet...
Gee, should we go with the "back of a envelope"..or the actual Data Folks?

Hmmmm?

10 December 2014
NSIDC science at AGU highlights sea ice, buried lakes in Greenland, and avalanche mapping


Scientists from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) will present new research on Arctic sea ice extent predictions, buried lakes in Greenland, and avalanche mapping at next week’s American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in San Francisco, California.
NSIDC is a University of Colorado Boulder research center that focuses on the world’s frozen realms: the snow, ice, glaciers, frozen ground, and climate interactions that make up Earth’s cryosphere. The center is funded primarily by NASA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is part of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado Boulder.

Reporters are invited to attend our scientists’ press conferences, scheduled talks and poster presentations. Below, find highlights of potential interest to journalists.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15

Towards improving sea ice predictability: Evaluating climate models against satellite sea ice observations
Julienne Stroeve, NSIDC Scientist
Invited Oral Presentation, GC12A-01
10:20 a.m. to 10:35 a.m., Moscone West 3002

NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve discusses developments in long-term and short-term sea ice extent predictions. Comparison between models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and observations of sea ice extent and thickness show that historical trends from 85 percent of the model ensemble members remain smaller than observed, and spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models.

Part of the explanation lies with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. These results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may be realized. On shorter time-scales, seasonal sea ice prediction has been challenged to predict the sea ice extent from Arctic conditions a few months to a year in advance.

Radar detections of buried supraglacial lakes across the Greenland Ice Sheet
Lora Koenig, NSIDC Scientist
Press Conference
1:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m., Moscone West 3000

NSIDC scientist Lora Koenig presents the discovery of buried lakes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Radars flown by NASA’s Operation IceBridge detected the buried lakes around the margins of the ice sheet. Most of the buried lakes had no visible surface expression but the few buried lakes that were visible had a darker blue color where subsurface water was located.

The volume of retained water in the buried lakes is small compared to the total mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, but the water will have important implications locally for the development of the englacial hydrologic network, ice temperature profiles, and glacial dynamics.

Reporters covering AGU remotely may join the press conference via web streaming. Reporters in San Francisco may also interview Lora Koenig at a related oral presentation (C51C-06) on Friday, December 19, 9:15 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. at Moscone West 3007.

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 16

Using sea ice age as a proxy for sea ice thickness
Julienne Stroeve, NSIDC Scientist
Poster Presentation, C21B-0341
8:00 a.m. to 12:20 p.m., Moscone West Poster Hall

NSIDC research scientist Julienne Stroeve talks about the changing relationship between ice age and ice thickness in the Arctic. Researchers in the University of Colorado have been using ice age as a proxy for ice thickness in studying the Arctic’s declining sea ice. Along with a decline in extent, scientists have also seen a decline in thicker, older ice making the Arctic more vulnerable to higher temperatures. Stroeve and her colleagues compared ice age data from remote sensing satellites to several observational data sets on ice thickness. The comparisons reveal that while a near-linear relationship between age and thickness for ice up to 3 meters thick existed in earlier years, this relationship is changing.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 17

Mapping starting zone snow depth with a ground-based LiDAR to improve avalanche control and forecasting
Jeffrey Deems, NSIDC Scientist
Oral Presentation, C31E-01
8:00 a.m. to 8:15 a.m., Moscone West 3007

NSIDC research scientist Jeff Deems presents initial results from mapping snow depth and snow depth change in avalanche starting zones at the Arapahoe Ski Basin Area in Colorado. Starting zones are near or at the top of an avalanche path, where unstable snow breaks loose from the snow-cover and starts to slide.

Varying distribution of snow depth in avalanche starting zones exerts a strong influence on avalanche potential and character. Extreme depth changes over short distances are common, especially in wind-affected, above-tree line environments. Snow depth also affects the ease of avalanche triggering. Deems tested high-resolution snow depth and depth change maps from a ground-based light detection and ranging (LiDAR) instrument to support active avalanche control and forecasting efforts.

Media Contact

Natasha Vizcarra
National Snow and Ice Data Center
University of Colorado Boulder
+1 303.492.1497
press@nsidc.org
Quoting 164. PedleyCA:



We have ALL of the Winter LEFT. It didn't start yet...

You know its like Hurricane Season. If 3 Cat 5's haven't hit the U.S. by August 1, the season is a bust and is over.
Quoting 164. PedleyCA:



We have ALL of the Winter LEFT. It didn't start yet...

Yep. People declaring winter bust is comparable to declaring hurricane season over in late May.
Live by the models, die by the models.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


This assumes the values aren't autocorrelated which means the value this year is completely independent of the value last year. This is generally not true for geophysical variables and is not true for sea ice where one extraordinary melt year (2007) will result in several years of easier melting as the new first year ice is more quickly melted than old multiyear ice. The reality is and remains though that the trend is steadily down in all seasons and a less impressive melting setup in 2012 resulted in a record melt so yes it's declining but the probability of these last 8 years happening in the absence of forcing is a little higher than 1:30m.. how much depends on the degree of autocorrelation.

Quite so, and my assumption really was that you couldn't use the normal statistical functions for independent variables. What happened in the previous couple of years does influence what will happen this year. I don't believe that there's a normal statistical function you can use to test probability in a case like this.
Partly cloudy and cool. 41/64 22 days since my last rain.
Seriously? People are already calling this winter a bust? It's only December 18th for crying out loud! Besides, there have already been a few good cold waves as well as the insane lake-effect snowband near Buffalo so it's a start. However, given the lackluster 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, i quite frankly didn't blame some of you for thinking 2014 would be a repeat (which couldn't have been more wrong).
What was the previous record for the largest boulder moved by a storm surge?
Quoting 166. Dakster:


You know its like Hurricane Season. If 3 Cat 5's haven't hit the U.S. by August 1, the season is a bust and is over.


Correction: if 3 category 5's haven't hit Florida by August 1st, it'd be considered a bust by some. :O)
GFS-Para 00z has a western GLC. Yuck.
Quoting 167. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yep. People declaring winter bust is comparable to declaring hurricane season over in late May.


I said it first... (not like I care like a certain other blogger does)
Quoting 174. Drakoen:

GFS-Para 00z has a western GLC. Yuck.
Gross Looking Cyclone?
Quoting 171. TimTheWxMan:

Seriously? People are already calling this winter a bust? It's only December 18th for crying out loud! Besides, there have already been a few good cold waves as well as the insane lake-effect snowband near Buffalo so it's a start. However, given the lackluster 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, i quite frankly didn't blame some of you for thinking 2014 would be a repeat (which couldn't have been more wrong).


Considering WInter hasn't started yet I agree.

And I also agree with the "by some" addition to my previous comment.
Quoting 172. DonnieBwkGA:

What was the previous record for the largest boulder moved by a storm surge?


I googled it but it doesn't say what the previous record was but haiyan moved the boulder 150 ft.
Quoting 176. DonnieBwkGA:

Gross Looking Cyclone?


Great Lakes Cutter
Why is it called a cutter and not a cyclone?
Quoting 180. DonnieBwkGA:

Why is it called a cutter and not a cyclone?


Why is grass green and dirt brown?
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
What was the previous record for the largest boulder moved by a storm surge?
179 metric tonnes, 4 metric ounces. :-)

I kind of wondered the same thing. Is there someone in charge of aquatically displace boulder measurements? How do they know how much a boulder weighs without a honkin' big crane and scale? Is there a database of wandering boulders somewhere or is this a Guinness Book of World Records kind of thing?
Quoting 180. DonnieBwkGA:

Why is it called a cutter and not a cyclone?


It's still a cyclone, but it cuts through the Great Lakes region. I suppose what he means by a western GLC is that it'll go through the western part of the great lakes, meaning the snow will generally miss the great lakes area itself.
Quoting 181. Drakoen:



Why is grass green and dirt brown?


Because they reflect different wavelengths of light. Gah. You were smart once ;)
Quoting 183. TimTheWxMan:



It's still a cyclone, but it cuts through the Great Lakes region. I suppose what he means by a western GLC is that it'll go through the western part of the great lakes, meaning the snow will generally miss the great lakes area itself.


Close. It means the storms impacts will be felt in the western region of the Great Lakes...as far as snow anyways.

Quoting 184. DonnieBwkGA:



Because they reflect different wavelengths of light. Gah. You were smart once ;)


I know what happened? :(
Quoting 182. sar2401:

179 metric tonnes, 4 metric ounces. :-)

I kind of wondered the same thing. Is there someone in charge of aquatically displace boulder measurements? How do they know how much a boulder weighs without a honkin' big crane and scale? Is there a database of wandering boulders somewhere or is this a Guinness Book of World Records kind of thing?


I would imagine if you know how much a certain volume of rock weighs you can extrapolate a large boulder. Of course if it is a giant geode you could be really wrong.
Any chance of severe weather across the SE with this?

Quoting 185. Drakoen:



Close. It means the storms impacts will be felt in the western region of the Great Lakes...as far as snow anyways.



I know what happened? :(


Close enough. I was talking more about the track the low takes.
Quoting 187. VAbeachhurricanes:

Any chance of severe weather across the SE with this?




exactly 1/30,260,340
...The winter of heavy rains...
I sincerely hope so Drakoen. No measurable rain for me for the past 22 days.
Quoting 187. VAbeachhurricanes:

Any chance of severe weather across the SE with this?




An isolated threat at most.
Quoting 191. DonnieBwkGA:

I sincerely hope so Drakoen. No measurable rain for me for the past 22 days.


With a 130kt+ Jet streak over you with a little bit of a low level jet off the GOM, it won't be long!
Quoting Drakoen:


With a 130kt+ Jet streak over you with a little bit of a low level jet off the GOM, it won't be long!


YAY!



Quoting 191. DonnieBwkGA:

I sincerely hope so Drakoen. No measurable rain for me for the past 22 days.


Well when ever I have a dry period around this time, the positive thing I think about is at least it's fall/winter and not summer. :)
Yikes, what a nasty 150 knots streak over Georgia/Carolinas on ECMWF. I can see some severe weather developing in Georgia at that time, although I think trough need to be more negative.
Good Morning All, darn it's cold.

Weather Underground PWS KMIGRAYL5
Interesting - not sure if I agree with the mechanism for detection that they think makes the birds flee - but there seems to be something that triggers them to do so.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-305 31060
Nothing like a fresh gale with heavy rain for Christmas eve (for the Northeast).

200. MahFL
Quoting 10. Patrap:

The National Hurricane Center took the next step towards creating separate hurricane storm surge warning messages on Thursday..


Sadly some people will still chose to remain behind and will be drowned.
Quoting 163. Dakster:



It isn't over until its over....

Just like here, it has snowed every month out of the year. So even though we are low on the snow count, it doesn't mean April/May won't bury us.


DC metro has had accumulating snow every month except May,June,July,August,September and flurries have been observed several times in May.

Frost has occurred in the metro area every month except July and August in cold pockets (not at airports)
Good morning.

So we wont have El Nino after all the hype? According to WSI no.

203. MahFL
Recent rains in CA have put a dint in the D4 drought, down from 55.8 % to 32.21 %.

Where are you people getting that I said winter is over?.Everything has gone over your heads.I said that it's a real possibility that we have a great lakes storm track kind of winter just like 010-011 or a winter like 1997-98 where D.C got cold rain instead of snow.
Quoting 204. washingtonian115:

Where are you people getting that I said winter is over?.Everything has gone over your heads.I said that it's a real possibility that we have a great lakes storm track kind of winter just like 010-011 or a winter like 1997-98 where D.C got cold rain instead of snow.


Washi I agree as these storms have been originating across the Gulf and bringing deep tropical moisture from the NW Caribbean causing mostly heavy rains across the NE US and next week will be no exception.

Just look at all this deep moisture over FL early next week then watch what happens on the next frame I post.


Now look at how all this deep moisture gets sucked into New England. My point is this moisture has very warm air with it as it is riding north so it will be difficult for anybody to get snow with this upcoming event.


Quoting 205. tampabaymatt:




Those totals have increased for S FL which is good as they really need the rain down there. Over here water levels are still very high even though we haven't much rain so far this month.
I've thought that 1997-1998 may be a good analog year. IMO, we'll know in the next 2-3 weeks. Seems like the bitter cold weather is "always 10 days away." If we don't see the deep cold penetrate the lower 48 down to the Gulf Coast by Jan 15 and stick around, I expect it will be a cold rainy winter for the Mid Atlantic and coastal New England. Heavy wet snow and ice events for interior New England.

Hope Cali continues to get rain (but not too much).

Quoting 204. washingtonian115:

Where are you people getting that I said winter is over?.Everything has gone over your heads.I said that it's a real possibility that we have a great lakes storm track kind of winter just like 010-011 or a winter like 1997-98 where D.C got cold rain instead of snow.
Weak system moving through the SE with a more robust system about to plow into California! Good morning everyone!

210. MahFL
Some heavy rain in N CA this am.



Quoting 208. HaoleboySurfEC:

I've thought that 1997-1998 may be a good analog year. IMO, we'll know in the next 2-3 weeks. Seems like the bitter cold weather is "always 10 days away." If we don't see the deep cold penetrate the lower 48 down to the Gulf Coast by Jan 15 and stick around, I expect it will be a cold rainy winter for the Mid Atlantic and coastal New England. Heavy wet snow and ice events for interior New England.

Hope Cali continues to get rain (but not too much).




That's true as here in FL come February it starts to heat back up. It always seems around my birthday February 27th that we get temps in the upper 80's. January is really the only month one in FL can expect to get some winter like temps after that the heat up begins.
212. MahFL
Lake Shasta went up another 3% to 55% Historical Ave.
Looks like I might have called this Tuesday event for FL. Looking more and more that severe weather will be possible across FL up to the Outer Banks of NC Tuesday Night.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY
WILL AMPLIFY TUESDAY /DAY 5/ BEFORE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGH THE SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CYCLOGENESIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE ERN CAROLINAS
SWWD INTO NRN FL EARLY DAY 6. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL UNDERGO SOME INCREASE TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE FL PENINSULA...BUT ALSO POSSIBLY INTO SRN PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH FL WITH
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY
. A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN MAY
OCCUR FARTHER WEST INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY EARLY ONSET OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE CONSISTENCY...AN UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORICAL RISK AREA IS LIKELY IN THE DAY 4 UPDATE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE FL PENINSULA.
What we have to watch for is where will the storms train as models seem to be keying on training storms across C FL Monday then again on Tuesday across C FL and if this occurs with 2" PWAT's in place then 3" to maybe even 6" in some isolated areas could be possible.



Ouch!! We may be in trouble here.




That jet combined with that much moisture in place means trouble folks and I hope people out traveling and shopping across FL heed all warnings.

Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:



Those totals have increased for S FL which is good as they really need the rain down there. Over here water levels are still very high even though we haven't much rain so far this month.
We have had more rain than usual for this time of year, our water table is good.
Here's this Deep Moisture plume that is going to set the wheels in motion across FL up to NC.

Quoting 217. jjjerry1:

We have had more rain than usual for this time of year, our water table is good.


Well according to many on here that's not the case. I know everyone up here saying its dry are out in left field as water levels are very high and have been since July as there has been a ton of rain here this year infact 62" at my location so far this year. 15" alone in just September, 11" in July, and 9" in November here in Longwood that's 35" in just 3 months!

Sanford about 8 to 11 miles NE of here had its 8th wettest Fall in history from September, October, and November with 27" of rain according to the NWS in Melbourne.

-SANFORD HAD THEIR 8TH WETTEST FALL ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 27.21
INCHES OF RAINFALL.


Correction 8th wettest not 3rd wettest.
Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:



Well according to many on here that's not the case. I know everyone up here saying its dry are out in left field as water levels are very high and have been since July as there has been a ton of rain here this year infact 62" at my location so far this year.
The Biscayne aquifer monitor wells our utility use in conjunction with our production wells verify more than adequate water levels for this time of year. This is not off the cuff opinion.
Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather · 10h 10 hours ago
Snow potential index: 1/10 (↓) - Weekend storm risk flaked out. Active pattern after worth watching but seems mostly wet.

The system on Christmas Eve has been talked about for over a week in this blog.
There's been lots of comments about Christmas Eve being a bad travel day. This isn't a surprise to anyone that's been following the models.

Even our local mets have been telling viewers all week about the rain and cold front next week.

Here's the GFS model from Tuesday. It even shows a stronger Low (988mb that drops to 972 mb) over the Great Lakes on Christmas Eve.
STATION NOVEMBER 2014 30 YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL NORMAL


DAYTONA BEACH 9.09" 2.69" 6.40" 338%
(DAB)

ORLANDO 4.83" 2.17" 2.66" 223%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 3.08" 2.88" 0.20" 107%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 2.60" 3.28" -0.68" 79%
(VRB)
CLERMONT 7.51" 2.14" 5.37" 351%
(CLRF1)

LEESBURG 7.28" 1.88" 5.40" 387%
(KLEE)

DELAND 4.13" 2.56" 1.57" 161%
(DELF1)
SANFORD 7.28" 2.38" 4.90" 306%
(SFNF1)

TITUSVILLE 10.34" 2.94" 7.40" 352%
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Ok but weren't you one of the one's posting forecast maps from your local weather station saying 20 to 30 percent rain chances? Just saying


That wasn't me. I never posted any maps showing 20-30% chance of rain on Christmas Eve for Fort Myers.

Here's the image I posted.

I posted the map showing rain on Christmas Eve.

You've got me mixed up with someone else.

Quoting 228. Sfloridacat5:



That wasn't me. I never posted any maps showing 20-30% chance of rain on Christmas Eve for Fort Myers.

Here's the image I posted.

I posted the map showing rain on Christmas Eve.

You've got me mixed up with someone else.




Sorry man. Maybe it was this TampabayMatt guy.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
STATION NOVEMBER 2014 30 YEAR DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL NORMAL


DAYTONA BEACH 9.09" 2.69" 6.40" 338%
(DAB)

ORLANDO 4.83" 2.17" 2.66" 223%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 3.08" 2.88" 0.20" 107%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 2.60" 3.28" -0.68" 79%
(VRB)
CLERMONT 7.51" 2.14" 5.37" 351%
(CLRF1)

LEESBURG 7.28" 1.88" 5.40" 387%
(KLEE)

DELAND 4.13" 2.56" 1.57" 161%
(DELF1)
SANFORD 7.28" 2.38" 4.90" 306%
(SFNF1)

TITUSVILLE 10.34" 2.94" 7.40" 352%


Everyone knows that area of Florida had a ton of rain back in November.

The other 80% of the state has had normal or below normal rainfall since the beginning of the dry season.

follow the crumbs..
Quoting 231. ncstorm:

follow the crumbs..


LOL! Which way do they go?
March, 1998...temps in mid 80's+ on Jersey Shore. Temps close to 80 in Berkshires in western MA. Remember it well. Felt like summer for almost a week. It was so weird.

I had an assignment in western MA area and came back to NJ over the weekend. At a time of year when you can still get a major snowstorm, I was wearing shorts and sandals.

Quoting 211. StormTrackerScott:



That's true as here in FL come February it starts to heat back up. It always seems around my birthday February 27th that we get temps in the upper 80's. January is really the only month one in FL can expect to get some winter like temps after that the heat up begins.
"That jet combined with that much moisture in place means trouble folks and I hope people out traveling and shopping across FL heed all warnings."

What warnings?
Quoting 235. luvtogolf:

"That jet combined with that much moisture in place means trouble folks and I hope people out traveling and shopping across FL heed all warnings."

What warnings?


The warnings that might be issued on Tuesday.
nice back dooring looping low over lakes

Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
March, 1998...temps in mid 80's on Jersey Shore. Temps close to 80 in Berkshires in western MA. Remember it well. Felt like summer for almost a week. It was so weird.

I had an assignment in western MA area and came back to NJ over the weekend. At a time of year when you can still get a major snowstorm, I was wearing shorts and sandals.



They've had some great waves out in California for about a week. The surf has dropped some in the past couple days though. Today the surf is pretty small Link compared to earlier in the week (breaking way out past the end of the pier)
But I couldn't stop watching the surf cams out there earlier in the week.

Also, the North Shore (Pipeline) was breaking really good earlier in the week. I couldn't believe how crowded the line up got. Surf was breaking 10-12 ft (hollow and dangerous) and guys were basically shoulder to shoulder in the line up.

I need to check to see if there's any more big storms out in the northern Pacific.

Also, need to check the Northern Atlantic.
France has been breaking, but nothing too huge. Not big enough to get the point breaking, but a pretty nice swell coming in.
Link
Quoting 236. StormTrackerScott:



The warnings that might be issued on Tuesday.


I don't think you are the only one saying rain for FL.

BTW -
Local news has us at 70% chance of rain for Tuesday.

NWS Forecast
A MORE SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DETAILS BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH REGARDS TO THIS TROUGH...BUT THE
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKS
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR
HIGH CHANCES AT A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXITING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL A BIT
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
EXISTS...HOWEVER CERTAIN GUIDANCE SOLUTION ARE SUGGESTING SOME
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES (SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION) WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
might be wed scott tuseday it moves in wed is the bulk of system for fla anyway as of now stay tune it will change


Quoting 237. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice back dooring looping low over lakes


Good morning Keep..That big low will help pull bitter cold air into the U.S.

1.


2.

Quoting 242. hydrus:

Good morning Keep..That big low will help pull bitter cold air into the U.S.

1.


2.


it should once it loops east of lakes if it even does
So far here in Baton Rouge we've picked up 1.40". What came through this morning is now in MS & AL.

Water temps relatively warm in Cali as well. Lucky guys :-)

EC has been pretty bad south of OBX with exception of that rare south FL swell.

Always disliked Pipe for that very reason. As if being goofy didn't make it hard enough. Caught a few memorable days only to be overshadowed by some really bad sessions (confrontations, heavy wipeouts, broken boards). Caught Backdoor great one March after the circus left town.

If I ever hit Europe, I'd hit the land of my ancestors first...Ireland.

I've been landlocked for weeks. Just trying to stay in shape...hoping to get wet over holidays. The Christmas eve storm may bring enough for a south swell...maybe.

Hope you get some rain :-)

Quoting 238. Sfloridacat5:



They've had some great waves out in California for about a week. The surf has dropped some in the past couple days though. Today the surf is pretty small Link compared to earlier in the week (breaking way out past the end of the pier)
But I couldn't stop watching the surf cams out there earlier in the week.

Also, the North Shore (Pipeline) was breaking really good earlier in the week. I couldn't believe how crowded the line up got. Surf was breaking 10-12 ft (hollow and dangerous) and guys were basically shoulder to shoulder in the line up.

I need to check to see if there's any more big storms out in the northern Pacific.

Also, need to check the Northern Atlantic.
France has been breaking, but nothing too huge. Not big enough to get the point breaking, but a pretty nice swell coming in.
Link

The NWS-New Orleans/Baton Rouge has this Climate/Drought Briefing posted on their site. It's focus is on the north central Gulf Coast - primarily LA & MS. It does have some graphics, though, that encompass the continental US.

It's an interesting read, with easily understood graphics. It discusses short- and long-term drought prospects, and mentions how the current rains could impact them.

247. txjac
Quoting 244. LAbonbon:

So far here in Baton Rouge we've picked up 1.40". What came through this morning is now in MS & AL.




Hey there, I got about 2.5" since midnight. My pups can hear it raining and are refusing to go out in it. They just roll over and go back to sleep.
Hey folks, greetings from balmy, rainy and stormy Germany ... "Estofex" even published a little warning of possible tornadoes in the north of the country for tonight. Last midnight I still had 12,5C (54,5F) in my backyard, and forsythia in front of my window is starting to blossom, huh. In the Alps people complain about a lack of snow.

Meanwhile in Alaska obviously the same picture:

No snow for Anchorage as strange weather lingers in Alaska's largest city
Anchorage almost 2ft behind the snowfall totals typical for this time of year – and local ski haunts have had to make their own powder
Associated Press in Anchorage, theguardian.com, Friday 19 December 2014 12.57 GMT
Quoting 247. txjac:



Hey there, I got about 2.5" since midnight. My pups can hear it raining and are refusing to go out in it. They just roll over and go back to sleep.


Smart dogs :P

I can't recall exactly where you're located, but it's somewhere under this, I think?

250. txjac
Quoting 249. LAbonbon:



Smart dogs :P

I can't recall exactly where you're located, but it's somewhere under this, I think?




You barely caught me ...I'm on the west side of Houston. Right now we are just getting a nice slow drizzle.
Made for great sleeping weather last night. Had some thunder this morning with the hardest of the rain.
Christmas weather looks good for me though ...supposed to be 70
Europe's Record Heat Tied Directly to Climate Change
By Andrea Thompson, Climate Central


As 2014 comes to a close, Europe is virtually certain to lock in its hottest year in more than 500 years, and according to research by three independent teams of climate scientists, the record can be closely attributed to climate change.

The three groups, from the UK, the Netherlands and Australia, each using a different method, found that Europe should best its previous heat record set in 2007, and that setting that record has been made at least 35 to 80 times more likely by the manmade rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

“All the groups are concluding there is a very substantial influence of human caused climate change on increasing the chances of setting a new record in 2014,” said David Karoly, an atmospheric scientist at the Australian National University and one of the project researchers.

The three teams in this project — from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the University of Oxford, the University of Melbourne and the Australia National University — are working as part of a new initiative with Climate Central to examine extreme weather events and determine climate change’s role in them.

In the past,extreme-event attribution took much longer to determine, but the new effort aims to establish any link between climate and extreme weather events much sooner after events happen.

Extreme heat events are one of the signature extremes expected in a warming world, according to climate model projections, be they a record hot summer in Australia or a record hot year for any part of the planet or the globe as a whole.

And in general, the link between climate change and extreme heat is clearer and easier to discern than for other forms of extreme weather, such as extreme downpours or drought.

Different Methods, Same Conclusion
In this analysis of extreme heat, each team used different methodology and came up with slightly different numbers for the 2014 record projection and the likely role that climate change played, but all showed a heavy influence of manmade climate change on the recent heat records.

Globally, as well as in Europe, nine of the 10 hottest years ever recorded have all occurred since 2000. No annual cold record has been set in Europe since 1956 as warming is making hot years hotter and more frequent. No year has beenrecord cold globally since 1911.

This year has been particularly warm, driven largely by extraordinary warming in large swaths of the Earth’s oceans.

Of course, the world doesn’t warm uniformly. In the U.S., for example, the eastern part of the country has had a fairly cool year while parts of the West are on pace for record temperatures. And many other parts of the planet have been baking, including Europe.

Nineteen European countries are on track for their hottest year on record: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom. Sweden is projected to tie its record high.

As a continent, Europe is set to break its record by 0.3°F, according to new estimates made by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh at KNMI, and explained in the Climate Indicator Bulletin released by the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Climate Center for Europe and the Middle East.

Van Oldenborgh used both modern and early temperature records, as well as sources like tree rings, which can act as a proxy for very old temperatures, to observe Europe’s temperature records back to 1500 and determined that 2014 will almost certainly be the warmest year Europe has experienced during the past 500 years.

When looking at the record of temperatures over time, “you see that the world is getting warmer and hence Europe is getting warmer,” van Oldenborgh said.

Warming’s Role
Using those observational records, van Oldenborgh’s analysis concluded that global warming has made a temperature anomaly like the one observed in 2014 in Europe at least 80 times more likely.

At the beginning of the 20th century, before the global warming signal emerged from the noise of year-to-year variability, the chances of seeing a year as warm as this one were less than one in 10,000, van Oldenborgh said. “It would be almost impossible to reach these temperatures a century ago.”

Independently, the two other groups used different analyses to probe global warming’s role in the year’s record heat. A team at the University of Oxford in the UK, led by Myles Allen and Friederike Otto, used thousands of iterations of regional climate models embedded within larger global models to examine more localized weather events.

For example, their data for Germany determined that what was once a 1 in 80-year heat event has now become a 1 in 7-year event, making it 10 times more likely due to global warming.

An Australian team led by Karoly and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne answered a slightly different question, which was to ask how much more likely it was to break the 2007 record with warming than without. To do this they used the same model simulations used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most recent report.

They found that the accumulation of greenhouse gases, which increases the chances of a record warm year every year they accumulate, made such an event 35 times more likely.

The differences in the numbers calculated by each group are a product of the slightly different questions each team asked, as well as the inherent uncertainty in these sorts of measurements, given how rare extreme events are, van Oldenborgh said. But for this heat event, “these numbers are very close given the uncertainties,” he said. That agreement across studies “gives us confidence in the result that global warming made a temperature this high in Europe much more likely.”

The results are also in line with previous work of Karoly’s that found that the record warm year Australia experiencedin 2013 was “virtually impossible” without the influence of global warming, as he put it.

“What we’ve been finding is that there’s a very clear signal on human influences on increases in the likelihoods of record temperatures,” Karoly said.
Looks like my area of NW Florida is finally going to get a good soaking after a couple months of very little rain!

Not sure why but can't get a current radar of NW Florida to post!
253. txjac
Hey, I lost the picture of one of my pups as my avatar??? Does that mean that the photo is not allowed?

Well, heck, it comes back on this post?
For example, their data for Germany determined that what was once a 1 in 80-year heat event has now become a 1 in 7-year event, making it 10 times more likely due to global warming.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
might be wed scott tuseday it moves in wed is the bulk of system for fla anyway as of now stay tune it will change.

I'm liking the 06Z GFS. It's bring the heavier rain very close to my location in S.W. Fl.
But as you mentioned, it starting to look more like Wednesday will the best chance for rain down here.

I'm not sure how I messed this comment up.
But here's the 06z. It's looking a lot better for me.
Water temps relatively warm in Cali as well. Lucky guys :-)

define lucky :)
245. HaoleboySurfEC3:05 PM GMT on December 19, 20140+
I'm not sure why the map won't show up. So I'll repost it. Looks like Wednesday will be the day down here.
Quoting 250. txjac:



You barely caught me ...I'm on the west side of Houston. Right now we are just getting a nice slow drizzle.
Made for great sleeping weather last night. Had some thunder this morning with the hardest of the rain.
Christmas weather looks good for me though ...supposed to be 70


I was sort of close... Sounds like a nice forecast. Similar here, 69/54, and Clear forecasted for Christmas day.
dear santa,this christmas i was wondering if you could make it where people just treated one another with kindness and honesty. if you could do this i would never ask for anything else ever. 
p.s. if this falls under the category of world peace i am good with it
all of my love,waterwitch11
After next week's rain, this Forecast Fire Danger Map will need to be updated (hopefully).
The longer the rain lasts the better.

Quoting 252. 69Viking:

Looks like my area of NW Florida is finally going to get a good soaking after a couple months of very little rain!

Not sure why but can't get a current radar of NW Florida to post!
here ya go

dear santa,this christmas i was wondering if you could make it where people just treated one another with kindness and honesty. if you could do this i would never ask for anything else ever.
p.s. if this falls under the category of world peace i am good with it
all of my love,waterwitch11


ok..this coming year...i promise to tell the stu.....errrr......dum....errr.....igno.....errrr. ....those that don't know what they are talking about...they are wrong........ in a nice way
Birds 'heard tornadoes coming' and fled one day ahead
By Jonathan Webb Science reporter, BBC News, 19 December 2014 Last updated at 02:21 GMT
US scientists say tracking data shows that five golden-winged warblers "evacuated" their nesting site one day before the April 2014 tornado outbreak.
Geolocators showed the birds left the Appalachians and flew 700km (400 miles) south to the Gulf of Mexico.
The next day, devastating storms swept across the south and central US. ...
Quoting 261. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

here ya go




Thanks Keeper, we need the rain so this is a good thing even if I'll be packing my truck and driving in the rain today!
I'm not sure if this was posted yesterday, but the NHC released their Tropical Cyclone Report for Fay. There was one major change, including the storm's upgrade to hurricane status prior to making landfall on Bermuda.

This means that Bermuda was hit by two hurricanes - Fay and Gonzalo - in the span of 5 days. Talk about bad luck.

Link
Quoting 234. HaoleboySurfEC:

March, 1998...temps in mid 80's+ on Jersey Shore. Temps close to 80 in Berkshires in western MA. Remember it well. Felt like summer for almost a week. It was so weird.

I had an assignment in western MA area and came back to NJ over the weekend. At a time of year when you can still get a major snowstorm, I was wearing shorts and sandals.




I remember this March heat wave in DC as well. Thought we might have a shot at 90 but highest was 89. 90 in March occurs a few times a century here.

March 1990 also had a week long heat wave. It was in the 80s with lows in the 50s or 60s every day and my newly planted peas were cooked. Outside of this week, temps were not unusual and March 1990 averaged above normal but not extreme.

For extreme persistant warmth March 2012 takes the ribbon. Abnormally warm for three weeks. I saw it coming on the GFS, believed it, and decided to plant a tomato plant March 15 here (normal safe time is early May). It
thrived (with some protection from one freeze and a few frosts) and produced record early fruit June 3
we did get hammered last night with rain........officially 0.01 at the airport...however my gauge caught just under a tenth of an inch
The last time the Earth warmed 5C, it took 12,500 years.

We're on a path to do it in 300 years,with 170 of those years behind us already.


Happy Festivus!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
923 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035 >038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201430-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFO RD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JE FF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAN D GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
923 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
273. txjac
Quoting 270. ricderr:

we did get hammered last night with rain........officially 0.01 at the airport...however my gauge caught just under a tenth of an inch


Sorry to hear that ric. It has just stopped here and we go 2.85" since midnight. Pretty good total
van Gogh's forecast for Christmas Night:

@weatherchannel 2m
Sad news for the meteorological world today as Bob Simpson, co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, has died at age of 102.
People have been forced to cancel their Christmas ski vacations in the French Alps.

French Alps ski slopes suffer with lack of snow - and none due till January



Link
Quoting 270. ricderr:

we did get hammered last night with rain........officially 0.01 at the airport...however my gauge caught just under a tenth of an inch


Where's the picture of the flooding (aka the puddle)?
Based on Archimedes principle (goes way back) the boulder's water displacement was, as best I can calculate, was around 100 tonne or more...so the water moved 70 plus tonne of rock and about 100 tonne "floated" in the water.  Yes it was a monster storm for certain  in all respects, and indeed the power of water is as much about flow/pressure as it is about displacement with the object with which it is interacting. 
Quoting tropicofcancer:
van Gogh's forecast for Christmas Night:



Can also substitute for the El-Nino Forecast.
Some snow flurries.You might miss it since there so small.
STY Haiyan's power was clearly amazing, as Dr. Master's post further supports. However, I would caution against claims about it being the "strongest tropical cyclone at landfall on record in world history". In short, I don't think we really know for certain. We do know that it was one of the strongest tropical cyclones at landfall, based on its satellite and radar presentation and the horrific devastation that it caused. What we don't know is its exact intensity. Pressure measurements at Guian and Tacloban suggest a minimum near or possibly somewhat below 900 hPa, similar to other high-end category 5 storms. The 195 mph wind estimate that would make it the record holder is from satellite Dvorak estimate and has large error bars, based on what I've read about the technique, especially for high-end storms. My point here is that when comparing intensities of tropical cyclones, the measurement error bars must be considered. Ranking a 195 mph estimate ahead of a 190 mph estimate is not reasonable if the error bars on the measurements are 20-30 mph; they would be a tie. I'm hoping further research on Haiyan can provide a better estimate of intensity and show how it really compares with, for example, the 1935 Labor Day storm, Hurricane Camille, Cyclone Monica (2006), and STY Megi in 2010.
Quoting 275. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@weatherchannel 2m
Sad news for the meteorological world today as Bob Simpson, co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, has died at age of 102.
what a ripe old age R.I.P.
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions from CSU are 8-15 named storms,3-9 hurricanes,1-4 major. Looks like a pretty average to above average season! Does anyone think we will have an active season and will El Nino wipe the season out?
287. txjac
Quoting 286. tiggerhurricanes2001:

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions from CSU are 8-15 named storms,3-9 hurricanes,1-4 major. Looks like a pretty average to above average season! Does anyone think we will have an active season and will El Nino wipe the season out?



With forecasting like that it's kind of hard not to be wrong ...unless we have some freak of a year like 2005
Where's the picture of the flooding (aka the puddle)?


here's what the rio grande looks like right now

Quoting 287. txjac:




With forecasting like that it's kind of hard not to be wrong ...unless we some freak of a year like 2005
Sorry to hear that ric. It has just stopped here and we go 2.85" since midnight. Pretty good total


ahh jac....we're desert....so it's to be expected......we just enjoy any and all we get

Quoting 275. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@weatherchannel 2m
Sad news for the meteorological world today as Bob Simpson, co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, has died at age of 102.
102 I'm jealous!
I think the atlantic season will be active like 2005. Look at the ssta in the atlantic, some areas still have 80 degree temps. We are still in the active era. CSU thinks that positive atlantic conditions will return , and that the july-september trade winds will enhace vorticity, but will have a very small supressing part in the season.
293. txjac
Quoting 290. ricderr:

Sorry to hear that ric. It has just stopped here and we go 2.85" since midnight. Pretty good total


ahh jac....we're desert....so it's to be expected......we just enjoy any and all we get


I just hit three inches ...and the temp is now below 50
It feel like Christmas season a bit
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions from CSU are 8-15 named storms,3-9 hurricanes,1-4 major. Looks like a pretty average to above average season! Does anyone think we will have an active season and will El Nino wipe the season out?


Forecasting 8-15 hurricanes is pretty ridiculous for a forecast. That shows they have very little confidence in their prediction skill for next year.

That's like saying there's a 30%-80% chance of an active season. It could be below average, average, or above average. We just don't know.

I personally think next year will be a pretty average season with around 10-12 named storms.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY TUESDAY /DAY 5/ BEFORE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CYCLOGENESIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE ERN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO NRN FL EARLY DAY 6. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL UNDERGO SOME INCREASE TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA... BUT ALSO POSSIBLY INTO SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH FL WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY. A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN MAY OCCUR FARTHER WEST INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER... IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE CONSISTENCY... AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA IS LIKELY IN THE DAY 4 UPDATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

BEYOND DAY 5 SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW UNTIL POSSIBLY DAY 8.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2014
I just hit three inches ...and the temp is now below 50
It feel like Christmas season a bit


we were cooler this morning at 34.....which is right at our average...but most morning have been in the mid 40's way abover average.....christmas is to be in the mid 60's....also above average
Quoting 260. Sfloridacat5:

After next week's rain, this Forecast Fire Danger Map will need to be updated (hopefully).
The longer the rain lasts the better.




Sometimes these maps are accurate, and sometimes they don't seem to be nearly as accurate. I've returned home from FSU to my parents house in the Tampa Bay area( near Clearwater, Pinellas County) and let me tell you, grass is still plenty green, and water levels are high in the ditches and ponds.

I just don't see how we have a high fire danger, even though it hasn't rained much in December, you don't need as much rain in the cooler months when days are shorter, the sun is less intense, and temps or lower. We had plenty enough rain throughout the Tampa Bay area from September through November, a total of 25.62 here to be exact, such that there is no way we are truly in a high fire danger.
In fact I actually had to mow the lawn when I first got here earlier this week because soil moisture is still pretty high from many previous heavy rains, even though December has been dry.

We've also had fires on some of the cooler nights, and ironically it wasn't that easy to start them, it took quite a bit of effort, compared to times when it is truly dry around here.
Really, the funny thing is the soil conditions and fire threat is lower now than it was in June and July here, the grass even looks better here now than it was in August when I left for school.


Obviously we could still use the upcoming expected rain since December has been dry, but I just don't see how the fire danger is high here right now given what I've noticed.
The only possible thing I could think of, is that due to a lot of cooler air, a lot of seasonal tropical underbrush has died earlier than usual, leaving a lot of dead under brush that is easy to start fires with. Otherwise I'm not sure.



Quoting ricderr:
Where's the picture of the flooding (aka the puddle)?


here's what the rio grande looks like right now



That looks like a fun place to ride a four wheeler.
Hopefully you'll see some rain or even snow in the near future.


Quoting Jedkins01:


Sometimes these maps are accurate, and sometimes they don't seem to be nearly as accurate. I've returned home from FSU to my parents house in the Tampa Bay area( near Clearwater, Pinellas County) and let me tell you, grass is still plenty green, and water levels are high in the ditches and ponds.

We definitely do not have a high fire danger, even though it hasn't rained much in December, you don't need as much rain in the cooler months when days are shorter, the sun is less intense, and temps or lower. We had plenty enough rain throughout the Tampa Bay area from September through November, a total of 25.62 here to be exact, such that there is no way we are truly in a high fire danger.

In fact I actually had to mow the lawn when I first got here earlier this week because soil moisture is still pretty high from many previous heavy rains, even though December has been dry.

We've also had fires on some of the cooler nights, and ironically it wasn't that easy to start them, it took quite a bit of effort, compared to times when it is truly dry around here.

Really, the funny thing is the soil conditions and fire threat is lower now than it was in June and July here, heck the grass looks better here now than it was in August when I left for school.


Obviously we could still use the upcoming expected rain since December has been dry, but I just don't think the fire risk map is accurate for this area right now. I just don't see any evidence for a high fire risk. We should still be in light green, or yellow at most.







Most of the Tampa area is at a Low Fire Danger. I'm not sure where they received their data for the beach area.

The areas of the state that are really the driest are down in the Everglades and the far Panhandle. The Tampa area is in good shape for water.

Quoting 209. 69Viking:

Weak system moving through the SE with a more robust system about to plow into California! Good morning everyone!



Moderate rain falling again here in the SF Bay Area this AM. Local NWS discussion says more precip expected than predicted and the frontal zone may stall out over our area, so they're alerting for possible hydro issues. Coastal SSTs remain hovering around 60 F with 2 days to go to minimum sun.
Hello, for all of you that would like snow, you can always go here.

Link
Tampa area is currently doing pretty good for water.
Tampa is also one of the major cities in Florida with above average precipitation since Oct. 1st.

Tampa
Actual - 6.86"
Normal - 5.36"


Quoting 302. TroutMadness:

Hello, for all of you that would like snow, you can always go here.

Link


Check out this also

Link
Quoting 303. Sfloridacat5:

Tampa area is currently doing pretty good for water.
Tampa is also one of the major cities in Florida with above average precipitation since Oct. 1st.

Tampa
Actual - 6.86"
Normal - 5.36"





Interesting, the drought map looks a lot better than the fire danger map, and that makes since, we don't have a drought around here right now.

I wonder then still why the fore danger map looks worse? Again, the only thing I can think of is a lot of dead tropical underbrush in forests from the cooler air and shorter days.
Quoting 208. HaoleboySurfEC:

I've thought that 1997-1998 may be a good analog year. IMO, we'll know in the next 2-3 weeks. Seems like the bitter cold weather is "always 10 days away." If we don't see the deep cold penetrate the lower 48 down to the Gulf Coast by Jan 15 and stick around, I expect it will be a cold rainy winter for the Mid Atlantic and coastal New England. Heavy wet snow and ice events for interior New England.

Hope Cali continues to get rain (but not too much).




1997-98 had a record intensity El Nino with a classic (not modoki) presentation and evolution. This year will likely be different in substantial ways with EPAC temp anomalies less intense but over a much larger area. It's hard not to see an obvious El Nino'ish pattern in recent weeks and also in short term forecasts from CFSv2 but my hunch is that the winter will be more variable than the usual strong Nino winter with more periods that look like November of this year. 1997-98 had no such periods of deep persistant Central to East trough and only one significant arctic outbreak in mid March 1998.

With newborn twins and a slightly older toddler though my memory of that period is very very hazy. Much of 1998 is a fuzzy blur. I do remember taking the babies to the zoo in late March 98 and it was very hot (upper 80s). I did not grow a garden that year.. too busy with priorities.
latest 850 mb gfs run


Holiday Weather for the East Coast
The beginnings of this system are pulling together today over TX. A little pea sized hail has been reported so far in WILLIAMSON, TX. This system should move across the northern gulf region with mostly rain, then hang across the SE and mostly North Florida. When the tail of a second system which today is just south of Alaska, interacts with the stalled system from TX pulling moisture from the gulf, things should get interesting. These two should collide late the 23rd or early the 24th & move very quickly across on Dec 24th which should increase shear & severe weather chances.. With the heat of the first storm the NE may see more rain though as the low pulls north The Cumberland Flats & areas in Appalachia might get left with a white Christmas.

Quoting 297. ricderr:

I just hit three inches ...and the temp is now below 50
It feel like Christmas season a bit


we were cooler this morning at 34.....which is right at our average...but most morning have been in the mid 40's way abover average.....christmas is to be in the mid 60's....also above average


DC area has been slightly above average but variance has been low. Steady seasonably chilly all month so far and
lemons remain outside since late November. The color and taste better when ripened in cool conditions outdoors and are worse when December has deepfreeze cold and I have to bring them inside.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Interesting, the drought map looks a lot better than the fire danger map, and that makes since, we don't have a drought around here right now.

I wonder then still why the fore danger map looks worse? Again, the only thing I can think of is a lot of dead tropical underbrush in forests from the cooler air and shorter days.


Not sure.
I just know the fire service take the ERC (Energy Release Component) and the forecast relative humidity to calculate the potential fire danger.

The ERC is a number related to the available energy (BTU) per unit area (square foot) within the flaming front at the head of a fire. The ERC is considered a composite fuel moisture index as it reflects the contribution of all available live and dead fuels to potential fire intensity.

Link
Quoting 308. Skyepony:


Holiday Weather for the East Coast
The beginnings of this system are pulling together today over TX. A little pea sized hail has been reported so far in WILLIAMSON, TX. This system should move across the northern gulf region with mostly rain, then hang across the SE and mostly North Florida. When the tail of a second system which today is just south of Alaska, interacts with the stalled system from TX pulling moisture from the gulf, things should get interesting. These two should collide late the 23rd or early the 24th & move very quickly across on Dec 24th which should increase shear & severe weather chances.. With the heat of the first storm the NE may see more rain though as the low pulls north The Cumberland Flats & areas in Appalachia might get left with a white Christmas.




Forecast for the central part of the country will be rain/snow mix Tuesday through Wednesday morning .. Temperatures highs should be in the high 30's this next week !!

Doesn't look like we will have a white Christmas ..
Quoting 296. Barefootontherocks:


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY TUESDAY /DAY 5/ BEFORE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY CYCLOGENESIS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE ERN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO NRN FL EARLY DAY 6. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL UNDERGO SOME INCREASE TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA... BUT ALSO POSSIBLY INTO SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH FL WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY. A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN MAY OCCUR FARTHER WEST INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER... IF MODELS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE CONSISTENCY... AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA IS LIKELY IN THE DAY 4 UPDATE ESPECIALLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

BEYOND DAY 5 SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW UNTIL POSSIBLY DAY 8.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2014
Christmas Eve: Strong double-barrelled low pressure should be spinning somewhere over the Great Lakes and Northeast, driving a cold front into the East Coast. Wind-driven snow is possible in at least the western Great Lakes, and possibly in parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Appalachians. A soaking rain, possibly with embedded thunderstorms and strong winds, may move into the Northeast, including the I-95 corridor. Significant flight delays are possible in the major Northeast hubs, as well as Chicago O'Hare and Midway. The rain will likely extend well into northern New England and Upstate New York. Some leftover showers and storms are possible in South Florida before the cold front clears. Another storm brings mountain snow and valley rain to the Northwest, northern California, Great Basin and northern Rockies. Lowering snow levels may bring some snow to some lower elevations of Washington and Oregon.
Quoting 263. barbamz:

Birds 'heard tornadoes coming' and fled one day ahead
By Jonathan Webb Science reporter, BBC News, 19 December 2014 Last updated at 02:21 GMT
US scientists say tracking data shows that five golden-winged warblers "evacuated" their nesting site one day before the April 2014 tornado outbreak.
Geolocators showed the birds left the Appalachians and flew 700km (400 miles) south to the Gulf of Mexico.
The next day, devastating storms swept across the south and central US. ...



Thank you for sharing Barb - this is truly amazing! We know so little........
Robert Simpson, co-developer of hurricane scale, dies at 102

By Jason Samenow December 19 at 12:35 PM



Robert (Bob) Simpson, a giant in the field of meteorology, died peacefully in his sleep last night at the age of 102. He is best known for working with engineer Herbert Saffir to develop the 1-5 scale for hurricane intensity, the Saffir-Simpson scale.

I was fortunate enough to meet Simpson at a birthday celebration this past winter, and learn about his career and legacy from several of his colleagues, highly influential meteorologists themselves.


Following the event, I wrote a blog post summarizing Simpson's contributions to the field, excerpted here.

[H]e championed and led hurricane research over several decades, served as director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) from 1968-1974, and was on faculty at the University of Virginia in the late 1970s, among many other accomplishments.

His life story is fascinating. His interest in meteorology was kindled at the age of 6 in his hometown of Corpus Christi, Texas when a hurricane's storm surge interrupted his family's afternoon supper, and was forced to flee to higher ground mid-course. He studied physics in college and graduate school, but took a job as a high school band instructor in the midst of the Great Depression before gaining employment as a weather observer for the U.S. Weather Bureau in 1940. He then spent decades in hurricane research and forecasting, earning his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Chicago along the way, before being appointed director of the National Hurricane Center.

No meteorologist in the 20th century has done more to advance hurricane science than Bob Simpson, says Jeff Halverson, who served as a post-doc under Joanne Simpson, Simpson's wife, at NASA.He was a powerful, motivating force who worked steadily behind the scenes to establish major hurricane research and forecast agencies, including the National Hurricane Research Program (NHRP) in 1955 and a dedicated hurricane prediction office, Miami's National Hurricane Center, in 1968. He directed the nation's only hurricane modification experiment, Project Stormfury, starting in 1962. Few people realize that Bob established a tropical weather observatory at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, from which the world-famous Keeling Curve of CO2 concentration is derived.

As accomplished as Simpson was a scientist and leader, he was equally admired for his character and commitment to mentoring countless professionals in meteorology. His wife Joanne Simpson, who died in 2010, is also renowned for her contributions to the field.

Simpson lived in Washington, D.C.

The Christmas Blizzard of 2014 for the Great Lakes.
BF .. thanks .. didn't know that .. since I only have this one handle ..
Scott will want to see this one with the energy over Florida on Wednesday.
Quoting 315. lilElla:



Thank you for sharing Barb - this is truly amazing! We know so little........
we have the senses too but we have become domesticated and no longer use them most anyway
Quoting 317. Sfloridacat5:

The Christmas Blizzard of 2014 for the Great Lakes.

guess I better go fill up the gas can gonna need It for the snowblower
Quoting 320. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we have the senses too but we have become domesticated and no longer use them most anyway
Many pluses.
Quoting 268. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure if this was posted yesterday, but the NHC released their Tropical Cyclone Report for Fay. There was one major change, including the storm's upgrade to hurricane status prior to making landfall on Bermuda.

This means that Bermuda was hit by two hurricanes - Fay and Gonzalo - in the span of 5 days. Talk about bad luck.

Link


Well how about that. Two hurricanes hit Bermuda consecutively, in October, during an inactive year.
I knew 2014 had something up its sleeve. Just nothing major for the US thankfully (Hey, Arthur wasn't too bad).

Some notable things to look for as these Tropical Cyclone Reports slowly come out-
1. Whether we see an upgrade in strength and/or the duration of major hurricane status by Edouard.
2. If there will be any tweaking of the Intensity of Cristobal (probably not anything higher than 90 Mph)
3. If we see June's 90L designated as an unnamed tropical cyclone.
I don't believe much will change with our strongest hurricane of the season, Gonzalo, although it was a very impressive and compact hurricane with flight level gusts of extraordinary strength. The only possible change in strength is if they bring its peak intensity up to 150 Mph, or just tweak the pressure some (if I remember correctly there was a couple passes by recon that were sub-940 MB please correct me if I am wrong).

20% chance of measurable rain, 57.8F here....
Quoting 318. whitewabit:

BF .. thanks .. didn't know that .. since I only have this one handle ..
LOL. It's been like that for years wab, for many - DocSwamp, beell, and many other good contributors. I saw it was still that way when I signed in as SD today 'cause I am thinking about doing a blog with this handle and saving Barefootontherocks just for OK weather.

I have written to Yakuza, thug and wuproductteam, and I also placed this concern in the suggestion page for the blogs requesting they re-set these filters. I know they did this for one individual whose posts supposedly got gang negged. They can do it for all of us, regardless of the cause.

Here is part of the comment I posted at wuproductteam:
"Comments from many, if not most, wu oldtimers don't show up until you use a below average filter. Comments from new handles show up immediately. For some of us, blog wars and gang "negging" back when we had a "neg" button, is the cause many not to show. Also, we were here before the plus and minus buttons and many of us did not use them and still don't because it's extraneous to our wu blogging experience."
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
guess I better go fill up the gas can gonna need It for the snowblower


It's looking like it's going to be really bad up there.
Quoting 320. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we have the senses too but we have become domesticated and no longer use them most anyway

When people on news reports say "I just had a feeling something wasn't right"
Quoting 314. Barefootontherocks:

Wab, do you realize your comments don't show on a "Show average" (or above) filter? Mine don't either. And if you have show average on and click the little blue eye to view the hidden comment, you can't plus it unless you change filter to "Show below average." That sux.

Once a comment has been "plussed," it shows no matter what comment filter you use.
I'm wrong about a comment showing on any filter once it has been plussed. On this page, with "show best," the only comments that show are your own handle, Pedley, txjac, and Math388 - a member who has made a grand total of 3 comments at wu.
LMAO
330. txjac
Quoting 329. Barefootontherocks:

I'm wrong about a comment showing on any filter once it has been plussed. On this page, with "show best," the only comments that show are your own handle, Pedley, txjac, and Math388 - a member who has made a grand total of 3 comments at wu.
LMAO


Too funny ...glad I made the cut! LOL
I've got rain right over my house on Wednesday.
Fingers crossed I get at least 1"-2" of rain.
Quoting 329. Barefootontherocks:

I'm wrong about a comment showing on any filter once it has been plussed. On this page, with "show best," the only comments that show are your own handle, Pedley, txjac, and Math388 - a member who has made a grand total of 3 comments at wu.
LMAO
If you show up on the "below average," filter, 2 plusses will only get you to "show good." lol
333. txjac
Quoting 331. Sfloridacat5:

I've got rain right over my house on Wednesday.
Fingers crossed I get at least 1"-2" of rain.



Hopefully you get your rain! I got just about 3.5" of that rain that is coming your way
12z GFS on Dec. 25th
Full change over to snow for the Great Lakes. Looks like some lake enhanced snow going on.
Has anyone noticed the subtropical looking thing in the central Atlantic the GFS and ECMWF show it as being warm cored in the cyclone phase diagram and possibly becoming a little more so before transitioning
Wow, if verifies could be a Christmas to remember for some.

Not a good track for northern New England. Messy.

Quoting 327. Sfloridacat5:



It's looking like it's going to be really bad up there.
BF they may not be able to see me but I can see them ..

but that is interesting .. I have mine set to show all and have never put anyone on a ignore list .. never felt the need to ..
GFS is calling for another Low over the Great Lakes on Dec. 28th with a trailing cold front.
Could be an extended snow event for the Great Lakes area.

Another chance of some heavy rain over Florida (subject to change of course)but hopeful.
12Z Euro has 7" to 10" of rain across the FL Big Bend from Sunday thru next weekend. Models are latching onto another system for the end of next week into next weekend now as well. Very impressive pattern about to kick off across FL if you like a lot of rain.
Quoting 338. Sfloridacat5:

GFS is calling for another Low over the Great Lakes on Dec. 28th with a trailing cold front.
Could be an extended snow event for the Great Lakes area.

Another chance of some heavy rain over Florida (subject to change of course)but hopeful.



I thought that is the same one from 24/25th. just hangin out
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro has 7" to 10" of rain across the FL Big Bend from Sunday thru next weekend. Models are latching onto another system for the end of next week into next weekend now as well. Very impressive pattern about to kick off across FL if you like a lot of rain.


I know you'd like this image, especially if it verifies.
Quoting MonsterTrough:


I thought that is the same one from 24/25th. just hangin out


Based on the GFS it forms a low on Dec. 26th down in the Southern Plains (see Oklahoma Panhandle). It then moves quickly up towards the Great Lakes.
Things could change, but that appear to be the situation. Then a new cold front forms from it that extends along the East Coast.
To anyone who is a member and thinks the comment filters need to be addressed,

You can go to The idea page for wu blog improvement suggestions and vote for the suggestion that says, Comment filters need addressing.

I will now change my filter back to "show all" so I can see what you all are posting, and I shut up, which may be a moot point when my comments are filtered as "below average." LOL
(removed and restated in another comment)
Just updated minutes ago.

Quoting 337. whitewabit:

BF they may not be able to see me but I can see them ..

but that is interesting .. I have mine set to show all and have never put anyone on a ignore list .. never felt the need to ..
I thought I was done on this subject, but I am not. I see two other Moderators - auburn and Skypony plussed your comment, wab. Really good contributors here are on "show below average" and someone with three comments is on "show best." That's wrong. Eliminating the neg buttons was a step in the right direction, but when really good weather posters rank way down - Why, because their comment number to plus ratio is not high? because a gang of posters don't like them and negged their comments for no reason when we still had a neg button?

This situation has nothing to do with the ignore feature. This is a leftover from the days when we had the neg button and does not reflect the comment quality of many members. It is a result of two things:

1. Oldtimers not caring about popularity and not plussing each other.

2. Blog wars and gang-negging during the years the neg button existed.

It's just not a fair deal, wab. Lot of good contributors being in the below average category, because neg buttons were misused and because we choose not to play the plussing game.

I have a question. Do you and Skyepony and auburn support a reset of the filters, or whatever needs to be done to fix this?
Sub-tropical looking donut storm pulling together in the NW Caribbean today..



ASCAT got a great pass of it this less than two hours ago..

Quoting 344. Barefootontherocks:

To anyone who is a member and thinks the comment filters need to be addressed,

You can go to The idea page for wu blog improvement suggestions and vote for the suggestion that says, Comment filters need addressing.

I will now change my filter back to "show all" so I can see what you all are posting, and I shut up, which may be a moot point when my comments are filtered as "below average." LOL
that's all from the days of no mods and such when things were a little crazy I guess I always select show all so the filter really does not matter and am I block too bf likely but I know why and its ok just show all
Quoting 327. Sfloridacat5:



It's looking like it's going to be really bad up there.
nothing we can't handle unless its ice now that may throw a wrench in things
Quoting 348. Skyepony:

Sub-tropical looking donut storm pulling together in the NW Caribbean today..



ASCAT got a great pass of it this less than two hours ago..




It's that system that gives us a lot of rain here in C & N FL late Sunday thru Monday. Then a strong upper level disturbance rolls in on Tuesday possibly deiivering some severe weather late in the day and overnight and I suspect there will likely be a tornado watch issued for most of the FL Penisula late in the day & overnight especially those in S FL. I suspect our main threat in C FL comes from 4pm thru mid night then SE FL toward daybreak. Could be tornadoes ongoing thru the night across FL and people better take heed of whats coming as I don't think this will be a major event but the fact its the holiday's and many will be on the roads has me worried.

Quoting 349. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that's all from the days of no mods and such when things were a little crazy I guess I always select show all so the filter really does not matter and am I blockttoo bf likely but I know why and its ok just show all
I take it you do not support a reset of the filters.

From the point of view of someone who knows what filter to use, you're right about seeing everything you want to see. Not everyone who stops in at wu knows that.

Otherwise, I don't agree with you. It is not right when good members who know a heckuva a lot about weather forecasting - more than most who post in this blog do - and those who've just been members a long time, made tens of thousands of comments and never got into the plussing game or whose comments were subject to multiple flaggings for no reason other than hate are deemed "below average." Admin took away the neg button. They can fix this situation. I'm done talking about this. I sent it through channels. We'll see what happens.
12Z Euro. One word WOW!

Quoting 353. Barefootontherocks:

I take it you do not support a reset of the filters.

From the point of view of someone who knows what filter to use, you're right about seeing everything you want to see. Not everyone who stops in at wu knows that.

Otherwise, I don't agree with you. It is not right when good members who know a heckuva a lot about weather forecasting - more than most who post in this blog do - and those who've just been members a long time, made tens of thousands of comments and never got into the plussing game or whose comments were subject to multiple flaggings for no reason other than hate are deemed "below average." Admin took away the neg button. They can fix this situation. I'm done talking about this. I sent it through channels. We'll see what happens.
this is really not the place for this but last reply I said it don't matter to me but if they wish to changed it that's up to the powers that be I will support whatever is chosen
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro. One word WOW!



I'll take it.
I'm still missing out on the main action, but its still showing around 2" or so for my area.

But that's better than extreme S. Florida which appears to be missing out on most of the precipitation.

Climatology would favor the heavier rain across northern Florida.
363. MahFL
Quoting 327. Sfloridacat5:



It's looking like it's going to be really bad up there.


They are used to snow in the Great Lakes....
Two storms in 4 days for the Great Lakes.
365. MahFL
Quoting 348. Skyepony:

Sub-tropical looking donut storm pulling together in the NW Caribbean today..


Er, is that coming to Florida ?
Quoting 350. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nothing we can't handle unless its ice now that may throw a wrench in things


Uggh, No Ice!!!
Quoting 365. MahFL:



Er, is that coming to Florida ?


Only as a rainmaker Sunday night thru Monday. Then Tuesday a stronger more potent disturbance with a strong low level jet coming in off the SE Gulf/NW Caribbean could prove to be trouble late Tuesday going into the night across FL. Dewpoints infact could hit 70 plus late in the day only adding to the instability coupled with 500mb temps at -12C.
Quoting 366. TroutMadness:



Uggh, No Ice!!!
of all the types of winter weather freezing rain which turns to ice is the worse as far as I am concerned it is also the most destructive if heavy extended event and the most difficult to treat on a removal scale
Quoting MahFL:


They are used to snow in the Great Lakes....


Crazy Great Lakes surfers will like it. Usually right after the storm pulls away and the wind backs off they catch the left over ground swell.

Posted yesterday on Facebook from Stoney Point near Duluth on Lake Superior.
Whats the chance of big snowfall in coastal NC/SC region after the first of the year?
It looks like cold air will be in place deep in the south and maybe migrate east with a strong southern jet to spinoff a low trajectory mid-atlantic storm or NEer?



maybe up to 5 inches of rain!!
373. vis0

Quoting 118. BaltimoreBrian:

I have just the math problem for everyone. Satellites have measured arctic sea ice coverage for 36 years. All the lowest 8 summer minima have happened in the last 8 years. What are the odds that all 8 lowest summer minima will have happened in the last 8 years if changes are trendless and random?
The simple reply is nature alone is over heating some naturally, most with the "help" of humankind. First warming(s) will be in a zig zag pattern, then the warming will rise till something has to give way for earth to begin its long cooling process w/ or w/o humans on board.
MY OPINION ::
Everything in this uni-verse is alive if not alive from within its alive from without in other words the heartbeat is the "resonances" of the uni-verse. Since living things have limits before they react to any danger that is interfering with its ability to "live"
Earth has a limit before things within it react oh let me think, like interfering with its circulation of weather/climate BY FORCE (not influence) creates a response in this case of an Anthropogenic triggered Ice Age that no amount of forced CO2 exhaust can reverse. A natural mini Ice Age might be reversed by spewing CO2 but not an Anthropogenic triggered ice Age, why? It (aIA) came on so quickly that certain "biospheric" reaction could not build up to create a reply. Things happen underground that takes hundreds of thousands of years to build up from below in response to a natural Ice age.

How many thousands of years did it take humans to raise the CO2 or any type of pollution? 50,000, 25,000, 10,000 5,000, 500yrs. Lets round it up to 200 yrs at most divide that into the natural amount of time it took the fastest mini ice age to flourish and find out how wrong this "TO BE" warming can be.

Since the scrolling ipod (sent idea to apple 7+ yrs ago) has not yet been invented i had to post my loong/complex reply (that answers the question and as usual goes off the deep end) here:: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.html ?entrynum=257 ...ONCE THERE scroll quickly down to comment #14  so you don't turn to a pillar of salt.


The Jacksonville NOAA weather radio seems to have been offline for at least a week. Anyone know why or when to expect it back?
Quoting 365. MahFL:



Er, is that coming to Florida ?

GEOS-5 has it merging with the front along the north edge of the gulf (right about where it says 1000 in the first image below), it merges with the low & pulls over the southeast. Best chance of severe weather for Southern MS, AL, NFL The tail of the combined lows races over FL, that may bring coastal tornadoes & maybe some severe weather for SFL.


Quoting pugcane:
The Jacksonville NOAA weather radio seems to have been offline for at least a week. Anyone know why or when to expect it back?


Looks like the Brunswick transmitter has been having on/off technical problems. Otherwise, on the bottom of NWS Jackonville's weather radio website, there is contact information for any questions concerning their weather radio program.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/?n=nwr
Quoting RitaEvac:
This is unreal

"Unreal" indeed:

"Brought to you by Ozias Oilfield Solutions"

Well, that's certainly an indicator of the objective bent of the interview with Alex 'I Never Met A Petro-Dollar I Haven't Drooled Over' Epstein... ;-)

I breezed through the transcript. In short:

-China is richer than it was 35 years ago, so fossil fuels are great.
-Environmentalists and progressives are communist and socialists, so fossil fuels are great.
-Leonard DiCaprio has a plane and a boat, so fossil fuels are great.
-Africans burn a lot of wood, so fossil fuels are great.
-Nature is dangerous, so fossil fuels are great.
-Manmade chemicals get a bad rap, so fossil fuels are great.
-CO2 makes up a small percentage of the atmosphere, so fossil fuels are great.
-Any attempt to save the planet is socialism. Also, Ayn Rand was a genius, so fossil fuels are great.

Awesome.
Quoting 370. Sfloridacat5:



Crazy Great Lakes surfers will like it. Usually right after the storm pulls away and the wind backs off they catch the left over ground swell.

Posted yesterday on Facebook from Stoney Point near Duluth on Lake Superior.



Crazy is right. Your post made me wonder what the water temps are...

Well, the Boys in Birmingham are finally recognizing that the Big Storm this weekend isn't going to much of anything for us in Alabama. The chances of any snow even in north Alabama is also fading. All the green on the radar over Alabama now is just virga. Nothing is hitting the ground, and I actually have breaks in the overcast. The wind is still dead east and the humidity is only 45%. Neither of these is a portent of rain for me. The probability of severe storms with the Tuesday thing is also not impressing the Boys, and they usually get excited if they think we even have an outside chance of severe weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. NOT TOO SURE THE PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF MISSISSIPPI WILL MEASURE WHEN IT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST ALABAMA...SO I HAVE LOWERED THE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY ONLY BE
AROUND 0.01 TO 0.03. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH BUT
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH...MAYBE A QUARTER INCH IN A FEW
SPOTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH THAT WILL SET
UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MONDAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE DAY. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

IT IS AN INTERESTING SYSTEM MID WEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM IS RATHER
DEEP AND COLD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW DOWN INTO THE UPPER MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID
WEST AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS AT OUR LOCATIONS
REMAIN WESTERLY (OR VERY BRIEFLY NORTHWESTERLY) EVEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. SO ANY WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN. THE NEAR SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS PRETTY LIMITED AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY CHRISTMAS...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT OTHER THAN JUST BEING CLOUDY AND
RAINY.

TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.
The new carbon map is out!
Dec. 19, 2014: The first global maps of atmospheric carbon dioxide from NASA's new Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 mission show elevated carbon dioxide concentrations across the Southern Hemisphere from springtime biomass burning and hint at potential surprises to come.

At a media briefing at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California; Colorado State University (CSU), Fort Collins; and the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, presented the maps of carbon dioxide and a related phenomenon known as solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and discussed their potential implications.


Global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from Oct. 1 through Nov. 11, as recorded by NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2. Carbon dioxide concentrations are highest above northern Australia, southern Africa and eastern Brazil. Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech


This map shows solar-induced fluorescence, a plant process that occurs during photosynthesis, from Aug. through Oct. 2014 as measured by NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2. This period is springtime in the Southern Hemisphere and fall in the Northern Hemisphere. Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech



Read More...

Quoting 364. Sfloridacat5:

Two storms in 4 days for the Great Lakes.
looks like that's where the storm track is setting up this winter..
Quoting 283. Patrap:





It's the second system after Christmas (the one that forms in the Southern Plains and quickly moves up towards the Great Lakes) that brings all the cold air down with it.

Here's the second system moving up towards the Great Lakes on December 27th with the cold air dumping in behind it.



December 29th -cold air has filled in across the eastern half of the U.S.

Quoting 373. vis0:


The simple reply is nature alone is over heating some naturally, most with the "help" of humankind. First warming(s) will be in a zig zag pattern, then the warming will rise till something has to give way for earth to begin its long cooling process w/ or w/o humans on board.
MY OPINION ::
Everything in this uni-verse is alive if not alive from within its alive from without in other words the heartbeat is the "resonances" of the uni-verse. Since living things have limits before they react to any danger that is interfering with its ability to "live"
Earth has a limit before things within it react oh let me think, like interfering with its circulation of weather/climate BY FORCE (not influence) creates a response in this case of an Anthropogenic triggered Ice Age that no amount of forced CO2 exhaust can reverse. A natural mini Ice Age might be reversed by spewing CO2 but not an Anthropogenic triggered ice Age, why? It (aIA) came on so quickly that certain "biospheric" reaction could not build up to create a reply. Things happen underground that takes hundreds of thousands of years to build up from below in response to a natural Ice age.

How many thousands of years did it take humans to raise the CO2 or any type of pollution? 50,000, 25,000, 10,000 5,000, 500yrs. Lets round it up to 200 yrs at most divide that into the natural amount of time it took the fastest mini ice age to flourish and find out how wrong this "TO BE" warming can be.

Since the scrolling ipod (sent idea to apple 7+ yrs ago) has not yet been invented i had to post my loong/complex reply (that answers the question and as usual goes off the deep end) here:: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.html ?entrynum=257 ...ONCE THERE scroll quickly down to comment #14  so you don't turn to a pillar of salt.




pure mathematical chance says it would be about 2.0*10^-12 (each of the 8 most recent years have to be warmer than the 28 previous years so logically the chances that the next year is warmer than the 28 preceding is 1/29 so for this to happen 8 times in a row multiply by itself 8 times)
Quoting pugcane:
The Jacksonville NOAA weather radio seems to have been offline for at least a week. Anyone know why or when to expect it back?
Are you sure you're not having a problem with your radio? The outage map here doesn't show Jacksonville having an outage. The main Jacksonville transmitter is a little too from me in SE AL but I can pick up Valdosta on 162.500 MHz, which is part of the Jacksonville transmitter group. It's working fine and there's no mention of any outage. Can you pick up any other transmitters on your radio?
Quoting 366. TroutMadness:



Uggh, No Ice!!!


I've learned I can handle the snow.... The ice makes things such a PITA. Especially the 1 mile long 10% grade I have to go up to get home.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It's the second system after Christmas (the one that forms in the Southern Plains and quickly moves up towards the Great Lakes) that brings all the cold air down with it.

Here's the second system moving up towards the Great Lakes on December 27th with the cold air dumping in behind it.



December 29th -cold air has filled in across the eastern half of the U.S.

Given the performance of the models when they are even three days out, I think we'll have to wait a bit to see if this cold air invasion really happens. The models for this weekend's storm three days out were almost completely wrong, with the ECMWF being the most wrong. The GFS was less wrong, showing a weak low hugging the Gulf coast, but it was quite wrong about the amount and coverage of rainfall. This is the fourth "storm" in a row that the models showed bringing significant rainfall for me and they have all failed. I'm getting a little fed up looking at models.
Quoting 388. sar2401:

Given the performance of the models when they are even three days out, I think we'll have to wait a bit to see if this cold air invasion really happens. The models for this weekend's storm three days out were almost completely wrong, with the ECMWF being the most wrong. The GFS was less wrong, showing a weak low hugging the Gulf coast, but it was quite wrong about the amount and coverage of rainfall. This is the fourth "storm" in a row that the models showed bringing significant rainfall for me and they have all failed. I'm getting a little fed up looking at models.


Note that 2401 = 7 X 7 X 7 X 7. Is "sar" short for "sevens are rad"?
I can't wait til we get the meteorologist saying"southern snow". Please Lord let it happen this winter.
Quoting sar2401:
Given the performance of the models when they are even three days out, I think we'll have to wait a bit to see if this cold air invasion really happens. The models for this weekend's storm three days out were almost completely wrong, with the ECMWF being the most wrong. The GFS was less wrong, showing a weak low hugging the Gulf coast, but it was quite wrong about the amount and coverage of rainfall. This is the fourth "storm" in a row that the models showed bringing significant rainfall for me and they have all failed. I'm getting a little fed up looking at models.


I just report the news. I usually put "subject to change" or a similar comment when posting model runs.
I just post the runs. I don't always believe in them (definitely not 100% that's for sure).

I'm not big on making predictions of my own. I just like to post what the models are predicting.
Anyone else having trouble seeing other people's avatars?
One should refer to ones local NWS for a given forecast as the Human element determines the writing of a forecast.


NWS 101

Posting models as gospel or a forecast is not forecasting, its jus showing model frames..or animated run loops.
Quoting 388. sar2401:

Given the performance of the models when they are even three days out, I think we'll have to wait a bit to see if this cold air invasion really happens. The models for this weekend's storm three days out were almost completely wrong, with the ECMWF being the most wrong. The GFS was less wrong, showing a weak low hugging the Gulf coast, but it was quite wrong about the amount and coverage of rainfall. This is the fourth "storm" in a row that the models showed bringing significant rainfall for me and they have all failed. I'm getting a little fed up looking at models.

Say it ain't so sar, say it ain't so
Quoting 388. sar2401:

Given the performance of the models when they are even three days out, I think we'll have to wait a bit to see if this cold air invasion really happens. The models for this weekend's storm three days out were almost completely wrong, with the ECMWF being the most wrong. The GFS was less wrong, showing a weak low hugging the Gulf coast, but it was quite wrong about the amount and coverage of rainfall. This is the fourth "storm" in a row that the models showed bringing significant rainfall for me and they have all failed. I'm getting a little fed up looking at models.


Incorrect. The ECMWF had this as a southern tracking system vs. the GFS trying to track it up the Great Lakes. The ECMWF did struggle with the deamplification but the GFS struggled with the progressiveness of the pattern.
Quoting 392. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Anyone else having trouble seeing other people's avatars?
Yes.I thought mines was removed for something so I changed it.Then the new one disappeared again.I was like what?.
Christmas eve late evening/Christmas day early morning

Quoting 397. washingtonian115:

Yes.I thought mines was removed for something so I changed it.Then the new one disappeared again.I was like what?.
ya there seems to be a vanishing act in progress with avatars comes and goes weird hope the wires not melting off the servers again kidding



Solar activity increased once again to high levels. Region 2241 was responsible for the largest event of the period, an M6.9 solar flare at 21:58 UTC (Dec 18). Coronagraph imagery reveals a faint halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with a potential Earth directed component. Prediction models are calling for an impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. This could lead to a potential geomagnetic storm if an impact does materialize. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert this weekend. Region 2242, along with interaction between regions 2235 and 2237, produced a moderate M1.3 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC (Dec 19). All other visible regions remained stable. A new sunspot is forming in the southeast quadrant and could be assigned a number later today. Continue to monitor SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery.
402. 882MB
Good evening, has anyone mentioned the 5.6 magnitude earthquake that struck just 2km off the island Guadeloupe, this afternoon. Also I see more models agreeing on a pretty potent storm system for Christmas eve , and Christmas day.
From Levi's site.
3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.
Christmas eve late evening/Christmas day early morning

A moderately strong M6.9 solar flare was observed on Thursday (Dec 18, 2014) around sunspot region 2241. Although coronagraph imagery still needs to be backfilled, updated imagery by LASCO C3 shows a coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun with a potential Earth directed component. A new CME prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is calling for a potential impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. More updates once additional imagery becomes available. Attached is various looks at the event courtesy of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).






406. vis0
Quoting 128. BaltimoreBrian:

fragileuk is closer, Sar :) I'll give the solution (and how to get it) later tonight.
1st apology i thought it was more of a rhetorical question, so i went
on & on to back that thought, then i read up to your reply to Sar2401 &
that fragileuk was closer.


i had 3 answers and the dart hit 0000694444444444444444444444444444444

APPENDED (after i saw the answer)::
2nd oops (not the wrong answer) but i thought it was a <1PM comment it was a <1AM and in not wanting to look ahead i waited till later tonite, he met later last night oops.

Change the winner to Sar2401, so we can use, "And the winner is, back of envelope please..."
61 degrees and raining on Christmas eve.Can someone say it's starting to feel a lot like Spring?.
Quoting Drakoen:


Incorrect. The ECMWF had this as a southern tracking system vs. the GFS trying to track it up the Great Lakes. The ECMWF did struggle with the deamplification but the GFS struggled with the progressiveness of the pattern.
I haven't even gotten into how bad both models performed with ultimate track but the GFS showed a weak low tracking along the Gulf before it sent it north. The ECMWF showed a strong low tracking through north Alabama AFTER it showed the low going over Florida and then tracking north along the coast. As I wrote, both models were terrible, but the ECMWF had this system way too strong until about 36 hours ago. My point is that, given the performance of the models with this storm and previous southern track storms, I'm loathe to hang my hat on yet another bunch of model runs six and seven days out until one of the models can clearly show they are able to predict reality.
Quoting 403. Sfloridacat5:

From Levi's site.
3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2215Z FRI DEC 19 2014

STATUS UPDATE ON NCEP FTP SERVER AND NOMADS

Overnight, NCEP NCO experienced an issue with our primary NCEP
ftp server and NOMADS systems. While we are addressing that
issue, we have moved our operations to our backup systems in
Boulder. The Boulder ftp and NOMADS systems are a degraded
backup at this time, and the additional load of the parallel
datasets is impacting our ability to disseminate our production
data through these systems.

Therefore, we are suspending the dissemination of parallel output
data from the following models for the ftp server and NOMADS.. :

GFS
Global and Hurricane Waves
Great Lakes Wave
Air Quality System

The expectation is this data will be unavailable for the entire
weekend. We will extend the evaluation periods of the models
currently in their 30-day evaluation.

Please note that imagery from many of these parallel models,
including the GFS, will continue to be available at

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ throughout the weekend.


Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
61 degrees and raining on Christmas eve.Can someone say it's starting to feel a lot like Spring?.


Did you see the image I poster earlier from the French Alps?
They are also in need of some snow. A lot of people are having to change their Christmas vacation plans because there's just not enough snow.

Quoting 407. washingtonian115:

61 degrees and raining on Christmas eve.Can someone say it's starting to feel a lot like Spring?.
Looks like nature called in April.
Quoting 388. sar2401:

Given the performance of the models when they are even three days out, I think we'll have to wait a bit to see if this cold air invasion really happens. The models for this weekend's storm three days out were almost completely wrong, with the ECMWF being the most wrong. The GFS was less wrong, showing a weak low hugging the Gulf coast, but it was quite wrong about the amount and coverage of rainfall. This is the fourth "storm" in a row that the models showed bringing significant rainfall for me and they have all failed. I'm getting a little fed up looking at models.
Bummer...I had your favorite here Mr. Sar sir...This is the wonderful CFS 2040 Hour North American Model...Its Brand New.!..I tink they had you in mind when puttin this lil puppy together..:)..notice the beautiful 2040 at the right hand bottom corner....sweet

Quoting 392. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Anyone else having trouble seeing other people's avatars?

Devs are working on it. Usually missing avatars will eventually reappear.


Couple of people had to be rescued from under a bridge on Buffalo Bayou & some others from a car.video here
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I just report the news. I usually put "subject to change" or a similar comment when posting model runs.
I just post the runs. I don't always believe in them (definitely not 100% that's for sure).

I'm not big on making predictions of my own. I just like to post what the models are predicting.
Yeah, I know that, and I'm not trying to say you're doing anything wrong. I'm just expressing my frustration with the poor performance of these models with southern track systems. I suspect the heavy rain and severe storm scenario for Florida on Tuesday/Wednesday is also going to be a bust. We have what's theoretically the perfect setup with an area of low pressure forming in the natural baroclinic zone in Texas. The best it can do is form a broad trough of weak low pressure. This is just not the pattern that will usually result in some strong system forming in four days.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting hydrus:
Bummer...I had your favorite here Mr. Sar sir...This is the wonderful CFS 2040 Hour North American Model...Its Brand New.!..I tink they had you in mind when puttin this lil puppy together..:)..notice the beautiful 2040 at the right hand bottom corner....sweet

Dang! March 14, 2015 I finally get some rain? I'm putting this in my calendar! :-)
418. vis0
Quoting vis0:
unless you count those heavy
rocks at Racetrack Playa - Death Valley (are or almost boulders) and the
stones or boulders  in which i THINK a Tsunami moved them from south of
Greenland to Bermuda or was it The Bahamas MANY i mean MANY years ago

Quoting sar2401:

Or unless you count 500 gallon propane tanks, semi's, and Cat D7. They were headed downstream with the redwoods.
AH HA! no wonder they were easily going downstream they had wheels (semi, wheels prevent from getting stuck & float) and
an enclosed tank (has air pockets) there i solved that mystery. ;-/ .
BUT WAY WAS THERE A CAT name "deeSeven?
Quoting 407. washingtonian115:

61 degrees and raining on Christmas eve.Can someone say it's starting to feel a lot like Spring?.


Mele Kalikimaka
Quoting 419. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Mele Kalikimaka


And the same to you Buddy....


Quoting 419. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Mele Kalikimaka


Fair winds and a calm eye to Mr. Simpson,...a Great Meteorologist,and Human being to all.

back atcha keeper,and everyone

Mele Kalikimaka
Quoting 386. sar2401:

Are you sure you're not having a problem with your radio? The outage map here doesn't show Jacksonville having an outage. The main Jacksonville transmitter is a little too from me in SE AL but I can pick up Valdosta on 162.500 MHz, which is part of the Jacksonville transmitter group. It's working fine and there's no mention of any outage. Can you pick up any other transmitters on your radio?


Thanks. It's the online feed I'm having trouble with. My iphone app is not picking up the station anymore, like it is no longer being broadcast over the internet.