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CycloneCenter.org: Harnessing the Power of Crowd-Sourcing to Improve Hurricane Data

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:16 PM GMT on December 12, 2014

Today's guest post is by Dr. Jim Kossin, a hurricane scientist with NOAA's National Climatic Data Center stationed at the University of Wisconsin/NOAA Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). I flew with Jim in 1988 with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters into Hurricane Gilbert of 1988, when it was the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever measured--888 mb. Jim was just a graduate student at the time, and has gone on since to write over 70 scientific papers, mostly on hurricane science.

- Jeff Masters


Has climate change made tropical cyclones stronger? This is a common question and it comes up even more often after a particularly devastating landfall event, such as Hurricane Katrina striking the U.S. Gulf coast in 2005 or Typhoon Haiyan moving over the Philippines in 2013. But it turns out that this is also a very difficult question to answer. The difficulty lies in the inconsistency of the available data. The data and their quality can change a lot from one time to the next and from one region of the globe to the next. This inconsistency means that we can never be sure whether a trend is real or just caused by the changes in the data.

Removing the inconsistencies is no easy job. And for data collected 50 to 100 years ago or more, there is relatively little that can be done with a high degree of confidence. Fortunately though, there is hope for improving things in the period of the modern satellite era, which began in the 1970s and really got going in the 1980s. In 1975, Vernon Dvorak, a scientist working at what is now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a method that estimates tropical cyclone strength using satellite images.

At its heart, the method, known as the Dvorak Technique, is essentially a “pattern-recognition” routine. Images are assessed for certain shapes and patterns and these are then related to storm strength (Figure 1). The method has been applied all over the world for many years, but it has not been applied consistently and the satellite data has steadily improved in quality over time. The inconsistent application and progressively changing data quality creates a lot of uncertainty in any attempts at global trend analysis.


Figure 1. Satellite images of tropical cyclones of varying strength.

One thing we can do is go back and take all of the available satellite images of tropical cyclones from all of the world’s ocean basins, and “homogenize” them so that they all have about the same quality. We’ve actually already done this. Then we could recruit an expert at applying the Dvorak Technique and have him or her reanalyze all of the images from the past 30 to 40 years. Since it’s the same person doing it, there should be a high degree of consistency. When he or she is finished, we would have a more consistent global record of tropical cyclone intensity and we can see whether any trends show up. But there are about 300,000 images that need to be analyzed…assuming that it would take our expert a few minutes per image, that’s about 12 years working 8 hours a day, 5 days a week with no holidays!

A solution to this problem can be found in the concept of “crowd-sourcing”. In crowd-sourcing projects, large numbers of ordinary people attack an unwieldy problem together. The project can be a scientific one, as ours is, but the “crowd” doesn’t need to be scientists. What the individual “citizen scientist” may lack in formal training and experience can be made up for by having multiple evaluations by a large group. More evaluations means less uncertainty, and this is where the “power of the crowd” comes from. It’s been found, over and over again and in many situations, that a multitude of lay-people can provide more accurate answers than a small handful of experts.


Figure 2. The Cyclone Center home page.

The website cyclonecenter.org provides the platform for this solution (Figure 2). The Cyclone Center project began in September 2012, and since that time more than 20,000 citizen scientists have completed almost 400,000 image evaluations. But we still have a ways to go and we need your help. Please consider contributing to this ongoing and important project by visiting the Cyclone Center website and trying your hand as a citizen scientist. It’s fun to do and you can interact with other citizen scientists along the way. And you’ll know that you are contributing to finding the answer to the important question: are tropical cyclones getting stronger?

(A paper describing the Cyclone Center project and how successful it has been over the past two years has been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society. An Early Online Release is available at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00152.1)

Jim Kossin, NOAA National Climatic Center

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm personally hoping for rain.I have no time for this nonsense.I'll take one more useless storm for the team.Hopefully I-95 will start to see more snow events as the winter continues and not be another 97-1998 winter where all the big snows were to the N.W and in the mountains.I know if we can have over performing snowstorms this past March when the average temperature climbs to the mid 50's and the sun angle is higher then I know we can do the same in December and January.
This is some moisture tap coming into FL this time next week. You can tell that El-Nino is definitely in charge now and just imagine how January is going to be across the South with Arctic air now coming into the mix.



Euro is now strongly heading towards what the CFSv2 is showing. This means there is increased thinking that there will be a big El-Nino down the road this needs to be watched as the last 2 updates on the Euro have quickly changed to a bigger El-Nino in 2015.

Euro


CFSv2
above average chances of precip the next 6-10 days. Temps look normal to above average. Cant complain, great weather recently.



Quoting 502. StormTrackerScott:

This is some moisture tap coming into FL this time next week. You can tell that El-Nino is definitely in charge now and just imagine how January is going to be across the South with Arctic air now coming into the mix.




Yep..i had a bad dream about this.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro is now strongly heading towards what the CFSv2 is showing. This means there is increased thinking that there will be a big El-Nino down the road this needs to be watched as the last 2 updates on the Euro have quickly changed to a bigger El-Nino in 2015.

Euro


CFSv2


Unfortunately those long range models are useless as you posted those this time last year and we do not even have an official El Nino yet, as you had predicted an El Nino all year this year. Obviously any day now it will be official but those models are useless.
2015 Hurricane Season looks like a dud. This is a major step toward the CFSv2 on the Euro this morning.


Quoting 506. WxGuy2014:



Unfortunately those long range models are useless as you posted those this time last year and we do not even have an official El Nino yet, as you had predicted an El Nino all year this year. Obviously any day now it will be official but those models are useless.


Yes, we do as the Japanese issued last week that El-Nino is present.
Quoting 505. hydrus:

Yep..i had a bad dream about this.


Yeah we are setting ourselves up for some nasty severe weather events coming down the pike especially as we head toward Spring.
Drum roll...

Quoting 510. washingtonian115:




GFS has no storm during this time frame. I wonder what the heck is going with this model. Euro has a beast cutting across the South then turning NE toward the mid Atlantic.

Euro


GFS
Got this from CWG.It's like taking a extra bottle of expensive liquor.

From WxBell Premium site (behind paywall) Sorry Chris, CFSv2/ NCEP GEFS Ensemble means red paint/burnt orange heat bomb from last week for this week and beyond will seriously bust as November cold pattern returns with strong ridge on west shore of Hudson bay and troughing underneath supporting cold in most of lower 48; While still early, Ecmwf eps ensemble mean 500 shows classic Nor’easter look for Sat-Sunday that could turn out to big snow in I 95 corridor, possible mixing on east side of the fall line; Euro operational cold, ensemble colder, control cold. Stay tuned, GFS still searching for clue but appears to be catching on.
Quoting 513. washingtonian115:

Got this from CWG.It's like taking a extra bottle of expensive liquor.

From WxBell Premium site (behind paywall) Sorry Chris, CFSv2/ NCEP GEFS Ensemble means red paint/burnt orange heat bomb from last week for this week and beyond will seriously bust as November cold pattern returns with strong ridge on west shore of Hudson bay and troughing underneath supporting cold in most of lower 48; While still early, Ecmwf eps ensemble mean 500 shows classic Nor%u2019easter look for Sat-Sunday that could turn out to big snow in I 95 corridor, possible mixing on east side of the fall line; Euro operational cold, ensemble colder, control cold. Stay tuned, GFS still searching for clue but appears to be catching on.


I'll take a Jager Bomb and many at that.



MattRogers
6:00 AM EST
Yesterday's high of 57F and low of 34F netted an average temperature 6F warmer than normal at National, bringing the month-to-date anomaly to 2F. We'll be warmer than normal into early this week, return to normal late week into the weekend with another round of warmer weather ahead of the holiday before a colder pattern could more firmly return over the holidays themselves.

Precipitation is running .19" above normal and we'll get a little boost from showers tomorrow, then more with the weekend winter weather system. The extended range modeling shows a very active, stormy final 1/3 of December, so we should end the month in surplus....but still a big question about whether that means "snow surplus" too!

Well I'm hoping that we'll get the option of Skype.Until then I'll be twiddling my thumbs like a prison about to go up for trial.Peace.Now back to your regularly schedule program of Wu morning blog.
516. csmda
Hope everyone is doing well!

It has been a very odd winter here in the FL panhandle! DRY and bipolar temps. It's hot for 3 days and then cold for 1. Can't remember the last time we saw real rain.
Lol.
Hi Scott, I know you really love the weather, like most everyone here but lets give it a break on these Nino forecast. Even the experts have a hard time predicting the Nino in the short term much less 6 months out. As for the hurricane forecast 6 months or longer out, this seems even harder to forecast, ask Gray and all the other long range hurricane forecasters. As for all you other posters on here who were criticizing Gray and Bastardi earlier, I wish you had a small fraction of the knowledge they have about weather and climate science, then maybe someone might listen to you for a second or two.
Quoting 517. wxgeek723:

Lol.

Lol is right.
Quoting 444. mcluvincane:



I thought there was supposed to be one this year?


But the water of the ocean now already is warm.
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Scott, I know you really love the weather, like most everyone here but lets give it a break on these Nino forecast. Even the experts have a hard time predicting the Nino in the short term much less 6 months out. As for the hurricane forecast 6 months or longer out, this seems even harder to forecast, ask Gray and all the other long range hurricane forecasters. As for all you other posters on here who were criticizing Gray and Bastardi earlier, I wish you had a small fraction of the knowledge they have about weather and climate science, then maybe someone might listen to you for a second or two.


+1,000,000. I do enjoy looking at the long range models from time to time but 99% of the time they are wrong. Its throwing darts at a dart board most the time. I prefer to just read the quarterly or annual reports from the respectable agencies. Their analysis is much more thorough.
Quoting 521. WxGuy2014:

I prefer to just read the quarterly or annual reports from the respectable agencies. Their analysis is much more thorough.
Or you can learn enough to make your own forecasts. :P

Quoting 518. NativeSun:

As for all you other posters on here who were criticizing Gray and Bastardi earlier, I wish you had a small fraction of the knowledge they have about weather and climate science, then maybe someone might listen to you for a second or two.
Gray and Klotzbach are reasonably good at what they do, imo. It's their landfall probability crap I find to be abhorrently lacking. Why even bother given what we currently know about hurricane science?
524. MahFL
Quoting 516. csmda:
...It has been a very odd winter here in the FL panhandle! DRY and bipolar temps. It's hot for 3 days and then cold for 1. Can't remember the last time we saw real rain.


Winter does not start until Dec 21st.
Quoting 518. NativeSun:

Hi Scott, I know you really love the weather, like most everyone here but lets give it a break on these Nino forecast. Even the experts have a hard time predicting the Nino in the short term much less 6 months out. As for the hurricane forecast 6 months or longer out, this seems even harder to forecast, ask Gray and all the other long range hurricane forecasters. As for all you other posters on here who were criticizing Gray and Bastardi earlier, I wish you had a small fraction of the knowledge they have about weather and climate science, then maybe someone might listen to you for a second or two.
Didja hear that Nino is coming.?...jk...really..jk........While Gray may be over doin it on the GW thing, and Bastardi being very outspoken , they are very knowledgeable..good post N.S..
500mb trough on the 12z NAM looks similar to the ECMWF digging a bit deeper than the GFS. Should caution that we should not be making drastic changes to our opinion run to run, model to model. The important thing is that there is a storm there that will be capable of producing snow. We have many models runs to go through.

Quoting 526. Drakoen:

500mb trough on the 12z NAM looks similar to the ECMWF digging a bit deeper than the GFS. Should caution that we should not be making drastic changes to our opinion run to run, model to model. The important thing is that there is a storm there that will be capable of producing snow. We have many models runs to go through.

I love your objectivity, Drak. I've said it before, but I can never repeat that enough.

I think you're a big part of the reason I've come as far as I have as a forecaster.

Do me a favor and never leave this site, mmkay? :D

Quoting 527. KoritheMan:


I love your objectivity, Drak. I've said it before, but I can never repeat that enough.

I think you're a big part of the reason I've come as far as I have as a forecaster.

Do me a favor and never leave this site, mmkay? :D



I've been here for 8 years with no signs of stopping. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:

I love your objectivity, Drak. I've said it before, but I can never repeat that enough.

I think you're a big part of the reason I've come as far as I have as a forecaster.

Do me a favor and never leave this site, mmkay? :D
And you are the reason I never left here. You really help me be a great forecaster asst. Sensei. Do me a favor, never leave this site.

Quoting 529. Andrebrooks:

And you are the reason I never left here. You really help me be a great forecaster asst. Sensei. Do me a favor, never leave this site.
You guys talked me out of it when I was pissed during that overhyped GFS Caribbean mega Hurricane Hanna thing in October, remember?

I ain't goin' nowhere!
Quoting 526. Drakoen:

500mb trough on the 12z NAM looks similar to the ECMWF digging a bit deeper than the GFS. Should caution that we should not be making drastic changes to our opinion run to run, model to model. The important thing is that there is a storm there that will be capable of producing snow. We have many models runs to go through.


That's the most important part about this upcoming weekend. A trough will come through and there will be a storm somewhere east of Mississippi River most likely going up East Coast via Miller A/B hybrid event (at least that's what it look like to me). The big question for us in North Carolina is whether storm can get far enough east for CAA on backside to let the cold air into the state, but cold air is currently very limited right now so we'll struggle to get below freezing no matter what. I think mountains of NC/VA and New England will do well with this one.

EDIT: Guess I should proof read next time. Left out some words.
GFS 06z still way northwest of its ensembles which should be a red flag. 500mb wavelengths on the ensembles support a system farther to the southeast.



Quoting 531. Bluestorm5:


That's the most important part about this upcoming weekend. A trough will come trough and there will be a storm somewhere east of Mississippi River most likely going up East Coast via Miller A/B hybrid event (at least that's what it look like to me). The big question for us in North Carolina is whether storm can get far enough for CAA on backside to let the cold air into the state, but cold air is currently very limited right now so we'll struggle to get below freezing no matter what. I think mountains of NC/VA and New England will do well with this one.
You too, Kyle. I don't know what kind of mental gymnastics you've been doing, but you've clearly improved a lot during the last year. A lot.
I wrote a blog. This was probably the high point..

Here is the tornado near Harper, KS..(yesterday)
I wish we could all get together and take a test on meteorology. This gathering includes Dr.Gray , J.B. , and all bloggers , then lets look at the results , those that do not match one half the scores of Gray and J.B. have to eat crow for a month.

Quoting 535. hydrus:

I wish we could all get together and take a test on meteorology. This gathering includes Dr.Gray , J.B. , and all bloggers , then lets look at the results , those that do not match one half the scores of Gray and J.B. have to eat crow for a month.
That sounds deeeeeelicious! Pun intended, btw.
Quoting 533. KoritheMan:


You too, Kyle. I don't know what kind of mental gymnastics you've been doing, but you've clearly improved a lot during the last year. A lot.



I recently took a weather analysis class working with hand-drawn synoptic maps (hours of work), so I learned quite a bit about high/low pressures and troughs/ridges. I've also picked up a lot of knowledge about general weather forecasting through WxChallenge (7th in nation in sophomores/freshmen category out of 500 forecasters and 2nd overall best at UNC-Asheville) and few other classes. I've also been lurking (and posting sometimes) on AmericanWx forum a lot for my daily mental exercises. Not only meteorology stuff, but I've gotten pretty good at art of photography as well :) It's clear I've been gone too long from WU due to boring weather, but I can't help but add in to our winter weather discussion.

Quoting 535. hydrus:

I wish we could all get together and take a test on meteorology. This gathering includes Dr.Gray , J.B. , and all bloggers , then lets look at the results , those that do not match one half the scores of Gray and J.B. have to eat crow for a month.
i am not very good at tests :)
Quoting 537. Bluestorm5:



I recently took a weather analysis class working with hand-drawn synoptic maps (hours of work), so I learned quite a bit about high/low pressures and troughs/ridges. I've also picked up a lot of knowledge about general weather forecasting through WxChallenge (7th in nation in sophomores/freshmen category out of 500 forecasters and 2nd overall best at UNC-Asheville) and few other classes. I've also been lurking (and posting sometimes) on AmericanWx forum a lot for my daily mental exercises. Not only meteorology stuff, but I've gotten pretty good at art of photography as well :) It's clear I've been gone too long from WU due to boring weather, but I can't help but add in to our winter weather discussion.
How'd you like having to pick out those cold fronts via satellite/water vapor? That was pretty hard for me when I first started doing it.

Quoting 539. WaterWitch11:


i am not very good at tests :)
None of us are. We just act like we are to provide ourselves with a false sense of confidence.
Quoting 540. KoritheMan:

How'd you like having to pick out those cold fronts via satellite/water vapor? That was pretty hard for me when I first started doing it.



I haven't got to that yet, but I know where to find low pressure systems with cold front going down the country fairly well.

Quoting 542. Bluestorm5:



I haven't got to that yet, but I know where to find low pressure systems with cold front going down the country fairly well.
It's honestly not that hard, lol.
Quoting 543. KoritheMan:


It's honestly not that hard, lol.



Yeah, lol. Those are obvious :)
Quoting 535. hydrus:

I wish we could all get together and take a test on meteorology. This gathering includes Dr.Gray , J.B. , and all bloggers , then lets look at the results , those that do not match one half the scores of Gray and J.B. have to eat crow for a month.


Depends on what's on the test. JB would probably blow most of us out of the water in a forecast contest.. at PSU he was one of the best forecasters there in the late 70s. On PhD comps, the basic knowledge test of the discipline you need before starting the PhD track, Gray and other academics (and also me though
I'm hideously rusty ) would do best. If it is academic synoptic analysis with undergraduate level or first year graduate level dynamics, a number of the other bloggers here would beat both me and Dr Gray because their coursework is much more recent than ours and even world class academics get stale and dated outside of their narrow specialties (not me I'm not world class, just stale)

GWV update. Upon further thought (while walking the dogs.. I'm home from work sick ) I think recent students and young scientists would be more competitive at PhD comps because knowledge is exploding in this field and a lot of "basic knowledge of the discipline" is also recently discovered.
Quoting NativeSun:
...As for all you other posters on here who were criticizing Gray and Bastardi earlier, I wish you had a small fraction of the knowledge they have about weather and climate science, then maybe someone might listen to you for a second or two.
The comments I either saw or made were in response to those holding up Dr. Gray (a geographer/meteorologist) as some kind of an expert on climate science. The thing is, assuming that because Dr. Gray is an authority on tropical weather automatically makes him an expert in climatology is like assuming a world-renowned plastic surgeon is just as authoritative on the subject of brain surgery.

Bad move, that. Don't you think? ;-)

And so far as pitting the people here against the climate knowledge of someone like Dr. Gray or JB, I'd simply tell you that one needn't be an expert in any field to spot a charlatan. I mean, a person wouldn't need to be an expert numismatist to ascertain that this isn't legal tender:

Fake as Gray's Climate Science

12z GFS is out to lunch again with H5 energy so lacking. This one should be another Ohio Valley cutting low.
Big changes on the GFS 12z run. Step in the right direction. Still has a couple days to sort itself out. No more early cutting as it goes east.
I'd debate Gray or JB on Climate any day, standing or lying down.

EASILY.

(I'm friends with both)


: P
I was wrong. GFS didn't cut to Ohio Valley, but rather went full Miller B with a transfer of low southeast. However, it's hard to tell because it was so weak and pathetic this run.
Look at it this way. The GFS 12z has finally caught up to the CMC. ECMWF is leading this one.

Delegates receive copies of The Lima Call for Climate Action after its approval at the 20th UN climate change conference in Lima, Peru. Photograph: EPA

UN agrees way forward on climate change – but path is unclear
Nicholas Stern


A global warming pact has been struck, but now nations must not only meet targets but fund clean development

overnments took a step back from chaos in the climate change discussions in Lima and found a way forward on Sunday, albeit with some fudges and compromises, giving themselves just 12 months to finalise a crucial international agreement to avoid dangerous levels of global warming.

Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, Peru’s environment minister, who had skilfully presided over more than two weeks of fraught negotiations, announced that a deal had been struck by more than 190 countries.

The five pages of text, dubbed the Lima Call for Climate Action, outline a way forward on hotly contested issues, including the process for countries to set out their pledges to cut annual emissions of greenhouse gases after 2020.

The overall aim remains the creation of an international agreement on climate change which is due to be settled at the next UN summit, COP21, to be held in Paris in December 2015.

Without a successful outcome in Paris it is unlikely the world can avoid a rise in global average surface temperature of more than two degrees celsius, which is recognised as a threshold beyond which the risks of climate change are likely to become unacceptably large.

Countries will be expected by spring 2015 to announce “intended nationally determined contributions”, including domestic targets for emissions reductions and plans to increase resilience against the impacts of climate change that cannot now be prevented.

Four years ago in Cancún, Mexico, nations recognised the dangers of warming exceeding the 2C increase and more than 100 governments gave national pledges to reduce emissions, by 2020, accounting for more than 80% of the annual output of greenhouse gas pollution.

Although the cuts, if delivered, would slow down the rate of increase in annual global emissions, the Cancún targets were not ambitious enough. Nevertheless they were still a significant step forward after the chaotic and inconclusive discussions in Copenhagen in 2009, which only produced an accord, though it did provide the basis for the Cancún agreements.

The road to Lima began in Durban, South Africa, in December 2012, when governments decided to try again to hammer out an international deal, setting themselves a three-year deadline. Now, with just 12 months left, the talks in Lima mean that there is a draft negotiating text for the Paris summit.

But there are still significant stumbling blocks on the road to success. Perhaps the biggest challenge is that governments are unlikely to outline cuts in annual emissions that will be collectively consistent with a path that gives a good chance of remaining below the 2C danger limit of two degrees.

So countries must focus on increasing the ambition of their intended reductions, and show these are credible by setting out how they will be achieved through domestic policies and legislation.

But they must also recognise that such increases may not be sufficient, and a mechanism must also be included in the Paris agreement which commits countries to continuous reviewing and strengthening of their emissions targets.

One reason this is so difficult is the dispute over the concept of “common but differentiated responsibility” – which means each country’s action reflecting its historical contributions to raising cumulative levels of greenhouse gases, and also its wealth.

Developing countries believe the rich countries have not shouldered a fair share of the burden and should lead by example, in terms of cutting emissions and also providing financial support to poorer nations.

In Cancún the rich countries agreed that they should provide extra funds from public and private sources to help developing countries, a sum rising from about US$10bn to $100bn a year by 2020. But the rich countries have barely kept this promise, and have largely re-labelled parts of their overseas aid budgets to achieve progress.

While the creation of the Green Climate Fund to administer parts of the funding has important symbolic value, it is in danger of distracting from the most important issue.

Over the next 15 years as much as $4tn (£2.5tn) a year will be invested in the emerging and developing countries for infrastructure, such as roads and buildings. It is this investment that must be transformed. If it is, economic growth can be strong, cleaner, less congested, more efficient, more biodiverse – sustainable and much more attractive.

If these investments lock countries into high-carbon economies with dirty growth, powered by fossil fuels, the world will not be able to reach its climate target of avoiding warming of more than two degrees.

And the developing countries will also experience greater air pollution, which already takes millions of lives each year and damages the economies of many countries, including China and Germany. All this on top of waste, inefficiencies and energy insecurity.

So while rich countries should honour the funding pledges they made in Cancún it is even more important they support and help transform the investment of that $4tn into clean, sustainable, infrastructure.

The rich countries also have so much to gain domestically from such similar transformations, and in so doing will create powerful examples for themselves and others.

Over the next 20 years the world has the chance to embark along a better path of economic growth that gives a much greater chance of managing climate change and overcoming poverty than the old high-carbon route.

In this way, rich and developing countries can get equitable access to sustainable development, which should be the key aim that drives each country over the next 12 months on the road from Lima to Paris.

Lord Stern is chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the LSE and president of the British Academy
Quoting 524. MahFL:



Winter does not start until Dec 21st.


Meteorological winter begins December 1st.
Quoting 551. Drakoen:

Look at it this way. The GFS 12z has finally caught up to the CMC. ECMWF is leading this one.



That was still an awful run for GFS, performance wise. It's struggling with this transitional pattern big time trying to place all of energies with this upcoming storm. ECMWF saw this one 2 days ago.
PGFS 12z looks similar to the ECMWF much more amplified much more realistic.


In regards to finding out if storms are stronger I suggest putting Super in front of the more powerful ones.
Quoting KZ1300A1:
In regards to finding out if storms are stronger I suggest putting Super in front of the more powerful ones.


Winter Storms?
Para-GFS finally got the hint and transferred the low to southeast Miller-B style. 1014 mb isn't too bad, either.

PGFS12z comes up the coast. Too warm for the I-95 corridor but good hit for the interior.
12z GGEM has come in more amplified. Ohio River Valley snows and into the Mid-Atlantic. Models are starting to converge towards the Euro.
The regular GFS has backed off the snow a bit for the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions this weekend.

Yesterday


Today

Quoting 557. Sfloridacat5:



Winter Storms?

Definitely. Winter is a good starting point.
Quoting 554. Bluestorm5:



That was still an awful run for GFS, performance wise. It's struggling with this transitional pattern big time trying to place all of energies with this upcoming storm. ECMWF saw this one 2 days ago.


It still hasn't verified.
Wait till we see what really happens.
4-5in. of snow in DC according to the GGEM
Quoting Neapolitan:
The comments I either saw or made were in response to those holding up Dr. Gray (a geographer/meteorologist) as some kind of an expert on climate science. The thing is, assuming that because Dr. Gray is an authority on tropical weather automatically makes him an expert in climatology is like assuming a world-renowned plastic surgeon is just as authoritative on the subject of brain surgery.

Bad move, that. Don't you think? ;-)

And so far as pitting the people here against the climate knowledge of someone like Dr. Gray or JB, I'd simply tell you that one needn't be an expert in any field to spot a charlatan. I mean, a person wouldn't need to be an expert numismatist to ascertain that this isn't legal tender:

Fake as Gray's Climate Science



Well then why should we believe what Bill Nye (mechanical engineer) or Michio Cuckoo, I mean Kaku, (physicist) have to say about climate change. I think I may buy some stock today, maybe I'll ask my dry cleaner which ones to buy.
Quoting 560. Drakoen:

12z GGEM has come in more amplified. Ohio River Valley snows and into the Mid-Atlantic. Models are starting to converge towards the Euro.

The synoptic flow is definitely more amplified. All you need to do is look at the latest water vapor.
For the ones that haven't seen this. It's old so most have probably seen this debate already.

Global Warming - Bill Nye Versus Joe Bastardi

Link
Quoting 563. georgevandenberghe:



It still hasn't verified.
Wait till we see what really happens.

Your rationality seems a tad out of place
Quoting 564. Drakoen:

4-5in. of snow in DC according to the GGEM




i am happy!!
Geaux Sneaux......

Quoting 565. Chucktown:



Well then why should we believe what Bill Nye (mechanical engineer) or Michio Cuckoo, I mean Kaku, (physicist) have to say about climate change. I think I may buy some stock today, maybe I'll ask my dry cleaner which ones to buy.


No, we listen to the actively researching scientists who unequivocally state that climate change is occurring and primarily due to man made ghg emissions. The fact that Bill Nye and others act as science communicators is irrelevant.

Quoting 571. Naga5000:


The fact that Bill Nye and others act as science communicators is irrelevant.
I seriously have NO idea how people still don't get this.
Quoting KZ1300A1:


I've always thought about attaching the Beaufort scale or some type of categories similar to hurricanes to Winter Storms.

But the National Weather Service uses many Winter weather terms (such a Blizzard Warning) to help people understand the severity of a Winter storm.
NWS Winter Storm Page
Link

Quoting 546. Neapolitan:

The comments I either saw or made were in response to those holding up Dr. Gray (a geographer/meteorologist) as some kind of an expert on climate science. The thing is, assuming that because Dr. Gray is an authority on tropical weather automatically makes him an expert in climatology is like assuming a world-renowned plastic surgeon is just as authoritative on the subject of brain surgery.

Bad move, that. Don't you think? ;-)

And so far as pitting the people here against the climate knowledge of someone like Dr. Gray or JB, I'd simply tell you that one needn't be an expert in any field to spot a charlatan. I mean, a person wouldn't need to be an expert numismatist to ascertain that this isn't legal tender:

Fake as Gray's Climate Science


Nea.. Your analogy comparing a plastic surgeon to a brain surgeon is poor at best. Tropical Meteorology has far more involvement with global warming then a plastic surgeon does with operating on a brain. A meteorologist must know the fundamental principles associated with the atmospheres affect on the Earth. A plastic surgeon can go about his work without knowing how to perform neurosurgery , or anything close.
Quoting 572. KoritheMan:


I seriously have NO idea how people still don't get this.



But...Al Gore is portly.
Quoting 539. WaterWitch11:


i am not very good at tests :)
You do not have to be..Just have the knowledge required to pass it...Greetings 11..

Quoting 575. Naga5000:



But...Al Gore is portly.
"Portly"? hahaha
P.S. Nik you actually prompted me to make a status update about that on Facebook just now. I should have even went the extra mile and numbered it as an unpopular opinion. If you lost count, that would make 5591. ;)

Quoting 574. hydrus:

A plastic surgeon can go about his work without knowing how to perform neurosurgery , or anything close.
Wasn't that... wasn't that kind of his point though, dude?
Quoting 578. KoritheMan:

P.S. Nik you actually prompted me to make a status update about that on Facebook just now. I should have even went the extra mile and numbered it as an unpopular opinion. If you lost count, that would make 5591. ;)



You should turn them into a coffee table book. :-)
Quoting 579. KoritheMan:


Wasn't that... wasn't that kind of his point though, dude?

Maybe, but you completely missed mine ...it o.k. ..i,m finished..

Quoting 580. Naga5000:



You should turn them into a coffee table book. :-)
I'll be reading them to my grandchildren. Then they'll be like "Dude, grandpa, you were AWESOME."

Quoting 581. hydrus:

Maybe, but you completely missed mine ...it o.k. ..i,m finished..
No I got yours, I just don't agree with it in this particular case.
For those fooled into thinking/claiming/believing that the cold weather in the US during November (and it was cold, no doubt about that) means that the planet was cool, NOAA says--again--that you're wrong. In fact, except for eastern North America, a spot in the North Atlantic, parts of SW Asia, and a handful of other spots, this past November saw a majority of global (non-polar) temperatures above to well-above normal:

NOAA
12z PGFS came in very much in-line with my thinking of a storm that ultimately tracks more north and provides significant snow to parts of New England, likely well inland from I95. I'd expect an exciting 12z ECMWF run.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
The regular GFS has backed off the snow a bit for the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions this weekend.

Yesterday


Today


Woohoo! An inch of snow!
Quoting vongfong2014:
Hey guys! I've been under a winter weather advisory so I've named WS Chocolate!

I'm waiting for Winter Storm Casey, and I predict it will happen Friday night and Saturday.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Florida snowporn








Ain't nobody got time for that!
Quoting 573. Sfloridacat5:



I've always thought about attaching the Beaufort scale or some type of categories similar to hurricanes to Winter Storms.

But the National Weather Service uses many Winter weather terms (such a Blizzard Warning) to help people understand the severity of a Winter storm.


I think that would be a very good way to inform people about the weather. However, It does nothing to inform people about climate. Maybe another scale should be developed that attempts to measure the climates impact on the storms intensity.
Euro for Christmas eve............................................... .....................