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Huge Rainstorm Poised to Ease California's Thirst

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:39 PM GMT on December 09, 2014

The wettest storm to affect the U.S. West Coast since 2009 is gathering strength over the Pacific Ocean, and promises to bring much-needed drought relief to thirsty California Wednesday through Friday. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 8 inches are expected over most of Northern California, with snowfall amounts of 1 - 3 feet predicted in the Sierra Mountains. As noted by Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his Monday post, California Drought Situation Improves, this week’s storm may be the strongest and wettest storm to hit the region since October 2009, when the last major ‘pineapple express’ soaked the state. California is already benefiting from widespread heavy rains that fell November 29th through December 6th, and most of California is now running a seasonal precipitation surplus—the first time they’ve seen such since December 2012.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending December 16, 2014. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. December 9, 2014 values of Total Precipitable Water—the amount of rain that would fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column of air over one’s head. A very moist flow of air originating in the subtropics and flowing past Hawaii—the “Pineapple Express”—was headed towards the U.S. West Coast. Image credit: University of Wisconsin.


Figure 3. Observed snow pack in California’s Sierra Mountains averaged just 25% - 45% of normal for the date on December 8. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

Insufficient snow still a concern
This week’s rains will further improve the dire drought situation in California, though not as much as one might expect, since near-record warm temperatures have been reducing the amount of moisture falling as snow. A heavy snow pack in the Sierras is critical to reducing drought in California, since melting snow provides a much-needed source of water in the subsequent summer dry season. The first week of December was one of the warmest on record for much of California, with the average temperature running about 10°F above normal. This was due, in part, because of near-record sea-surface temperatures along the Californian Pacific Coastline, ranging from 59°-63°F—at least 5°F above average, and close to record warmth for this time of year. Snow levels during last week’s storm were generally above the 7,000-8,000’-foot level, and the Sierra snow pack on December 8 was just 25% - 45% of normal for the date. Snow levels from this week’s storm will start off above 7,000’, but will then lower to 5,000’, as much colder air than was seen during last week’s storm moves into the state. Hopefully, this will put the Sierra snowpack close to normal depth by mid-December.

Jeff Masters

Drought Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M, hooray for water! I'll be first to say that California's thirst will be quenched :)

Lets erase some of the red.
thanx doc........go california!!!!!...may you offer that moisture also to the parched southwest
severe gales and 40 foot waves heading for the northern British isles today.
lovely weather here in the southern Caribbean islands,, some gentle showers but signs that the dry season is coming in soon.




heavy rain and flooding here in east haven ... way to much rain now
The buoy at Bodega Bay, usually the coldest most upwelled spot on the coast is currently showing 61 F!

The coastal current is from the southeast, not the normal northwest.
Quoting 4. Grothar:


its look like a tropical storm to me..
Thanks for the update, Doc. At least we don't have to talk about major typhoons for a while now. I think the snow-pack will be well over 100% of normal by this time next week. The remains of Hagupit getting caught up in the polar jet can only help improve the rain situation as well. The warm air from the initial round of storms is pretty typical this early in the season, but more and more cold air is going to be coming in behind these big-time fronts. For the Sierras, it's the tremendous snows that develop from the lift available as the air crosses the summits combined with the cold air that creates the big snow events. This is one of those storms that, if I couldn't make it over the hill while it's still all rain, I'd just stay home. It's going to be miserable in the mountains this weekend, with the heavy snow combining with very strong winds in the passes. Skiing will be terrible and travel almost impossible, and that assumes that I-80 stays open. Caltrans workers are going to be making lots of OT with this and following storms, something they haven't had in the last couple of years.


heavy rain here in new haven,conn
Quoting BayFog:
The buoy at Bodega Bay, usually the coldest most upwelled spot on the coast is currently showing 61 F!

The coastal current is from the southeast, not the normal northwest.
Dang. 61 degrees in Bodega Bay in December. In my almost 40 years of living in California, I never remember SST's that warm so far north so late in the season. Those warm waters are going to be a real wildcard in the forecasts until the ocean finally starts to cool off. If the current continues from the SE, that may never happen this winter. We'll see how the models deal with that.
Quoting 7. hurricanes2018:

its look like a tropical storm to me..


Lot of rain!

Thank you, doc, for the good rain news. I'm really happy for California!

----------------------------------------

Concerning stormy Europe:

Little "Alexandra"-airmass-loop from today (first part with pics every second hour, second part with hourly shots). Quite a girl, hm?



Windgusts in Scotland already up to 174kmh/108mph:


Click to enlarge.

Guess this video from today shows just the beginning of the surf. And Ardeer Beach isn't totally exposed to the open Atlantic:


09.12.2014: This is a great beach here and after every storm comes tons of rubbish and great for beach combing. Perhaps the council could give me the contract to clean up the beach - that way I get to be a beach bum all summer long.
With all that warm water just off-shore, we (here in California) should be a little careful what we wish for.

Does anybody have a guess on where all that warm water off California's coast came from?
Thank You Dr. and good news for California. Here comes the Pineapple Express per today's GFS Conus jet chart and the same jet, if is remains in place, that may bring the remnants of the Typhoon their way as well as noted below:





Quoting Grothar:

That snowfall forecast is wrong, look at this.

Oh, and...Thanks dok!
Quoting Grothar:


Lot of rain!



Yeah I don't know what's with the funky subtropical-esque shape of our nor'easters these days. The October storm was like that too. Also all the radar observations seem to proclaim certain doom, but the ground reports don't support that.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Yeah I don't know what's with the funky subtropical-esque shape of our nor'easters these days. The October storm was like that too. Also all the radar observations seem to proclaim certain doom, but the ground reports don't support that.

Hmmm...should I put the EWSFC northeast forecasters back on duty and call this Winter Storm Casey? Or what?
Quoting Agres:
With all that warm water just off-shore, we (here in California) should be a little careful what we wish for.

Does anybody have a guess on where all that warm water off California's coast came from?

Be careful what you wish for...
No idea, but I'd guess the Eastern Pacific pushed some warm water further north or something.
Here is the North Pacific reference point also showing the remnants of the Typhoon to the East of the Philippines and the large swath of moisture getting ready to emerge into the Pacific to the North of Japan. Not sure from this vantage point whether the remnants of the Typhoon are going to make the train across the Pacific (it seems to be too little left and too far to the South):

A lesson about media's new weather speak, lol. After the "polar vortex" now the "weather bomb" (btw, in Italy they use to call a downpour "bomba d'aqua" = waterbomb).



What is a weather 'bomb'?
BBC weather video, 9 December 2014 Last updated at 12:18
A Met Office "be aware" warning is running for parts of Scotland, England and Northern Ireland.
Parts of western Scotland are braced for strong winds and "unusually high" waves, while there have already been a string of road accidents amid snow and ice.
But with newspapers predicting a UK weather 'bomb' for the second year running, what does the term actually mean?
BBC weather's Peter Gibbs explains.


Edit: Nice example this cover title:


Sierra Nevada, please. In English the Snowy or Snowcovered Mountains. Sierra Mountains roughly means the Mountain Mountains.
Quoting 20. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the North Pacific reference point also showing the remnants of the Typhoon to the East of the Philippines and the large swath of moisture getting ready to emerge into the Pacific to the North of Japan.


Amazing! And the feederband for "Alexandra" isn't really short as well:


Click to enlarge. From Eumetsat twitter feed.
The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a Flood Warning

* Flood Warning for urban areas and small streams in... Westchester County in southeast New York... Bronx County in southeast New York... New Haven County in southern Connecticut... Middlesex County in southern Connecticut... Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...

* until 315 PM EST

* at 1208 PM EST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated moderate to locally heavy rain across the area. This has been persistent over the past five hours. Rain rates between a quarter and half inch per hour have been reported.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams...and minor flooding of water in urban areas...highways...streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots. Flooding will be exacerbated across low lying shore roads with high tide.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or has been reported. Stream rises will be slow and flash flooding is not expected. However...all interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice...turn around...dont drown.

A Flood Warning means flooding is occurring or is imminent. Most flood related deaths occur in automobiles. Do not attempt to cross water covered bridges...dips...or low water crossings. Never try to cross a flowing stream...even a small one...on foot. To escape rising water move up to higher ground.
Quoting 21. barbamz:

A lesson about media's new weather speak, lol. After the "polar vortex" now the "weather bomb" (btw, in Italy they use to call a downpour "bomba d'aqua" = waterbomb).



What is a weather 'bomb'?
BBC weather video, 9 December 2014 Last updated at 12:18
A Met Office "be aware" warning is running for parts of Scotland, England and Northern Ireland.
Parts of western Scotland are braced for strong winds and "unusually high" waves, while there have already been a string of road accidents amid snow and ice.
But with newspapers predicting a UK weather 'bomb' for the second year running, what does the term actually mean?
BBC weather's Peter Gibbs explains.




In the good old days, an "atmospheric river" was just a moisture plume. In the SF Bay Area, a "pineapple connection" was a "Hawaiian storm".
Here comes the sun and the cool air. Sun is just starting to come out here in Fort Myers.
Quoting 13. Agres:

With all that warm water just off-shore, we (here in California) should be a little careful what we wish for.

Does anybody have a guess on where all that warm water off California's coast came from?


Well first off, we know it's coming up from Baja since there's an anomalous southeast current right now. There was quite an excess of heat across the eastern Pacific this summer, so probably some of that excess has managed to squirt north, squeezed against the coastline. More speculative: perhaps the Kuroshio Current (the Pacific "Gulf Stream") was further north this summer which seems possible given the warmer North Pacific. Since its drift feeds the California Current, perhaps the California Current was more inclined to turn westward further north than usual (Coriolos effect), allowing a southeast current to intrude along the coast. Maybe the global conveyor system which terminates in a large general upwelling off the west coast was weaker either as a result of global warming or some natural cycle.
Why Hasn’t A Major Hurricane Hit the U.S. in 9 Years?
Climate Central, Published: December 9th, 2014
ssued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Tue, Dec 9, 12:12 pm EST
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
* UNTIL 315 PM EST
* AT 1208 PM EST... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST FIVE HOURS. RAIN RATES BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS... HIGHWAYS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. FLOODING WILL BE EXACERBATED ACROSS LOW LYING SHORE ROADS WITH HIGH TIDE.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE... TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.
A FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES... DIPS... OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM... EVEN A SMALL ONE... ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 24N30W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N28W SW TO THE LOW TO 20N31W. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NE OF
THE AZORES IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF
THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS
ARE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 18W AND 33W. METEO FRANCE FORECASTS
CONTINUATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA OF METEOR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE
METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 08N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 07N30W TO 07N40W TO 06N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF...AND FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND OVER THE FL STRAITS. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE EASTERN GULF COVERING
THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS N FROM S AMERICA
AND COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE SE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 50
NM OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS CONVECTION FREE.
NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
TO EXTEND FROM THE BELIZE COAST TO EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

HISPANIOLA...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND TUESDAY FROM
THE NW WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS ISLAND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT FROM 31N76W TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W TO THE FL STRAITS
NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF
THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N71W TO THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W TO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N75W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
FARTHER EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 58W IS
PRODUCING A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ITS EAST WHICH
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 31N
BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A DEEP UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N30W SUPPORTS A 1008 SURFACE LOW NEAR
23N30W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THIS LOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL STALL OUT NEAR 30N60W TO THE E TIP OF CUBA INCLUDING
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE FRONT. THE LOW IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
Quoting tuckernpurrs:
Sierra Nevada, please. In English the Snowy or Snowcovered Mountains. Sierra Mountains roughly means the Mountain Mountains.
Yes, but to be technical, "nevada" properly translates to "snowfall". Sierra also translates into "hacksaw". "Sierra Nevada" could translate into "Snowfall Hacksaw". We tend to use language that's understood, not what's linguistically pure.
Quoting 17. wxgeek723:



Yeah I don't know what's with the funky subtropical-esque shape of our nor'easters these days. The October storm was like that too. Also all the radar observations seem to proclaim certain doom, but the ground reports don't support that.


A lot of the really high intensity echos are probably brightbanding where the radar beam reflects off of melting precipitation. Melting precipitation is more reflective than either rain or snow.

Thank you Dr. Masters.
This about the best pre Christmas present that the population of Northern California could wish for.
Its only to be hoped that the runoff is not to severe from the parched earth.

Meanwhile in Britain they are expecting severe storms over the next couple of days.
80 MPH winds and general bad weather.

Here's a news link I found:-

Link
Quoting barbamz:
A lesson about media's new weather speak, lol. After the "polar vortex" now the "weather bomb" (btw, in Italy they use to call a downpour "bomba d'aqua" = waterbomb).



What is a weather 'bomb'?
BBC weather video, 9 December 2014 Last updated at 12:18
A Met Office "be aware" warning is running for parts of Scotland, England and Northern Ireland.
Parts of western Scotland are braced for strong winds and "unusually high" waves, while there have already been a string of road accidents amid snow and ice.
But with newspapers predicting a UK weather 'bomb' for the second year running, what does the term actually mean?
BBC weather's Peter Gibbs explains.

Once "Bombogenesis" started being the "in" word among the pros, it was only a matter of time until the media picked up the "bomb" part and ran with it. The term used for most of my life by forecasters was "rapid intensification", which was a pretty well understood terms with certain conditions attached. Now every other storm will be a "bomb" as we saw with every other squall line being a "derecho" over the past several years. It's not good when we use imprecise terms instead of existing, and more precise, terms.
any Mods around?
Wab? Skye?
I just got SPAMMED in my own blog. Post 64.

No, I'm not gonna "just delete it" - I want this user REMOVED.

TIA
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Here is the North Pacific reference point also showing the remnants of the Typhoon to the East of the Philippines and the large swath of moisture getting ready to emerge into the Pacific to the North of Japan. Not sure from this vantage point whether the remnants of the Typhoon are going to make the train across the Pacific (it seems to be too little left and too far to the South):

Not as much as we saw with previous super typhoons but enough will make it into the Bering Sea to at least intensify any weather that makes its way south in the last part of the month. It's just another shot of tropical air mixing with cold air from the Arctic which is going to make every Aleutian low that much more intense.
Quoting aquak9:
any Mods around?
Wab? Skye?
I just got SPAMMED in my own blog. Post 64.

No, I'm not gonna "just delete it" - I want this user REMOVED.

TIA
Your spammer also has 17 posts. Apparently the spam filters here don't work so good, since I assume previous posts were not likely to be about weather.
Quoting sar2401:
Once "Bombogenesis" started being the "in" word among the pros, it was only a matter of time until the media picked up the "bomb" part and ran with it. The term used for most of my life by forecasters was "rapid intensification", which was a pretty well understood terms with certain conditions attached. Now every other storm will be a "bomb" as we saw with every other squall line being a "derecho" over the past several years. It's not good when we use imprecise terms instead of existing, and more precise, terms.

Rapid intensification and bombogenesis are two separate terms. Bombogenesis describes a 24mb+ drop in the central pressure of an extratropical cyclone in a 24-hour period. Rapid intensification describes a 30kt increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone in a 24-hour period.
Quoting sar2401:
Your spammer also has 17 posts. Apparently the spam filters here don't work so good, since I assume previous posts were not likely to be about weather.

Edit: 17 posts since sometime this morning too. I flagged it. Nice looking cat. :-)Does he or she eat your plants? Mine love to chow down on them.
Bring it on. That is all.
Quoting 34. sar2401:

Once "Bombogenesis" started being the "in" word among the pros, it was only a matter of time until the media picked up the "bomb" part and ran with it. The term used for most of my life by forecasters was "rapid intensification", which was a pretty well understood terms with certain conditions attached. Now every other storm will be a "bomb" as we saw with every other squall line being a "derecho" over the past several years. It's not good when we use imprecise terms instead of existing, and more precise, terms.


The term "bomb" came while I was a student in the late 70s and refers to a 24mb or more drop in central pressure in 24 hours. Forecasters have been using the term for decades and I don't know why the media has picked it up just now.

A lot of stuff that is called derecho in the media isn't. I have issues with both the media being too broad and the met community being too narrow with definitions of this phenomenon.

I'm also bothered by the term "atmospheric river" and the sensationalism of the climatologically normal "Polar Vortex" and its occasional (and expected) splits and descents into midlatitudes. The prefix "super" rarely adds value to a term IMHO.



REPORT: CAM NEWTON INVOLVED IN BIG CAR ACCIDENT The Carolina Panthers quarterback was part of a vehicular crash Tuesday, i hope notting bad happern to him!!!
Quoting 39. sar2401:


Edit: 17 posts since sometime this morning too. I flagged it. Nice looking cat. :-)Does he or she eat your plants? Mine love to chow down on them.


My dogs are the plant eaters although occasionally my Siamese cat would eat my early corn transplants. Neither
of my two cats now are plant eaters inside my house. They do graze outside as do the dogs.
thanks admin
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Rapid intensification and bombogenesis are two separate terms. Bombogenesis describes a 24mb+ drop in the central pressure of an extratropical cyclone in a 24-hour period. Rapid intensification describes a 30kt increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone in a 24-hour period.
Ah. And to make it even more confusing, the "bomb" also varies by latitude, so we have to calculate "bombiness" in "bergerons"...

Definition

Fred Sanders and John Gyakum in 1980 defined a ‘bomb’ as an extratropical cyclone that deepens by at least (24 sin φ/ sin 60˚)mb in 24 hours, where φ represents latitude in degrees. This is based on the definition for explosive development of a cyclone at 60˚N as deepening by 24mb in 24 hours which was standardised by Tor Bergeron.[11] Sanders and Gyakum noted that an equivalent intensification is dependent on latitude, at the pole it would be a drop in pressure of 28 mb/24 hours, while at 25 degrees latitude it would be only 12 mb/24 hours. All of these rates qualify for what Sanders and Gyakum called “1 bergeron”.[8][9]
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The term "bomb" came while I was a student in the late 70s and refers to a 24mb or more drop in central pressure in 24 hours. Forecasters have been using the term for decades and I don't know why the media has picked it up just now.

A lot of stuff that is called derecho in the media isn't. I have issues with both the media being too broad and the met community being too narrow with definitions of this phenomenon.



I'm waiting for the next "Polar Vortex" invasion.



Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The term "bomb" came while I was a student in the late 70s and refers to a 24mb or more drop in central pressure in 24 hours. Forecasters have been using the term for decades and I don't know why the media has picked it up just now.

A lot of stuff that is called derecho in the media isn't. I have issues with both the media being too broad and the met community being too narrow with definitions of this phenomenon.

I very occasionally saw the "bomb" term used in forecast discussions starting the 80's but it took one heck of a storm to get that appellation. Now it seems like half the winter storms are "bombs", even when they don't actually meet the definition of what was called "explosive development". That's a term that I saw used much more often than "bomb" and it seemed to me to be reasonably descriptive. Same with derecho. It seems that once these terms get into the popular media, the meaning gets more and more corrupted until it's just descriptive of some big event. Of course, I'm also a crotchety old geezer, and hate to see these kinds of imprecision spread to the public mind.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I'm waiting for the next "Polar Vortex" invasion.



Just wait. It's coming. "Duck, it's a polar vortex bomb headed your way". I think that should play well on Facebook.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


My dogs are the plant eaters although occasionally my Siamese cat would eat my early corn transplants. Neither
of my two cats now are plant eaters inside my house. They do graze outside as do the dogs.
I have one cat named Moose that nearly destroyed my spider plant named Steve. It's really old and big, and I thought it was getting some kind of disease until I caught Moose up on the plant stand ripping off great gobs of Steve and eating him. I now grow grass in pots and rotate them out on the cat porch so the boys have something to chew on besides Steve and his cohorts. The things we do for our furry friends...
Quoting 45. sar2401:

Ah. And to make it even more confusing, the "bomb" also varies by latitude, so we have to calculate "bombiness" in "bergerons"...

Definition

Fred Sanders and John Gyakum in 1980 defined a ‘bomb’ as an extratropical cyclone that deepens by at least (24 sin φ/ sin 60˚)mb in 24 hours, where φ represents latitude in degrees. This is based on the definition for explosive development of a cyclone at 60˚N as deepening by 24mb in 24 hours which was standardised by Tor Bergeron.[11] Sanders and Gyakum noted that an equivalent intensification is dependent on latitude, at the pole it would be a drop in pressure of 28 mb/24 hours, while at 25 degrees latitude it would be only 12 mb/24 hours. All of these rates qualify for what Sanders and Gyakum called “1 bergeron”.[8][9]

Great, now I can't talk about weather in the airport anymore
Quoting 50. MAstu:


Great, now I can't talk about weather in the airport anymore


Actually I think TSA won't be as bothered by the term "Bergeron" as by what it replaced.
It appears us in FL are not going to be 'weather whip lashed' as one would say this week. It is cooler for sure but nothing crazy. Shall i warm up the crow? :)

Looking out to Xmas, most the country except for FL will probably see above average temps. December is turning out to be warm for sure. Cant complain about a few degrees below normal here in FL, its already warm as it is :)

Thanks Doc.

">

Pretty good surf at Cocoa Beach today. Also people seem to be enjoying themselves on the beach.

Link
Quoting 48. sar2401:

Just wait. It's coming. "Duck, it's a polar vortex bomb headed your way". I think that should play well on Facebook.


Preceded by a derecho and somehow involved with an atmospheric river which BTW (if we ignore the usually numerous precedents) is also "unprecedented"
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters...
Winter Storm Damon Produces Variety of Winter Impacts Across the Northeast Published Dec 9 2014 11:54 AM EST

Winter storm Damon will produce a variety of wintry weather across the Northeast through Thursday. This system does not have a lot of cold air to work with. So, rather than a mid-winter Nor'Easter that produces a major snow storm for New England, this system will have to work to get a snow storm anywhere. The best ways to get to cold air are to travel north into Upstate New York as an example, or to go up a few hundred feet in elevation. Significant snowfall will be limited to Upstate New York and parts of Western New England with the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Catskills and Poconos seeing the bulk of the higher snowfall totals. This will also be a heavy, wet variety of snow so there is potential to see power outages where it snows the most from this storm. There will also be pockets of icing in portions of Interior New England where cold air stays locked in at the surface through this evening. Note, the snowfall actually is found as far west as Buffalo and could even affect Cleveland. That is due to the track this system will take, actually moving back toward the Northwest as it heads through New England and into the province of Quebec.
Quoting 54. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty good surf at Cocoa Beach today. Also people seem to be enjoying themselves on the beach.

Link


It's about to get chilly over there. Five days of cold windy weather beginning tomorrow. It's been a weird fall here in central Florida.
watch my heavy rain video Link

here the link of my video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_V0vMfDmakQ
Quoting 48. sar2401:

Just wait. It's coming. "Duck, it's a polar vortex bomb headed your way". I think that should play well on Facebook.
I like that see if I can spin one up
Here's our chilly week. People up north would probably call it Fall like. But if we get down in the 40s for four nights in a row, that's pretty good.
7 day for Fort Myers


I'm only Happy when it rains.........
Granted, my very miniscule carbon footprint is so because I am a poor man. Why can't rich people like these guys set a better example?

I have the answer to my question, but you don't want to here it.

Lima Climate Talks Set for Record Carbon Footprint

Hardly green, Lima U.N. climate talks on track for record carbon footprint.
"Huge Rainstorm Poised to Ease California's Thirst" - but sadly, they'll probably go back to their water-wasting ways once there's a bit more water in the reservoirs and snow in the mountains, forgetting that all that rain is probably having zero effect on the deeply-drawn-down Central Valley aquifer, which they'll be pumping to make up the difference from the (possibly) restricted water from the reservoirs. The drought ain't over yet, folks!
Quoting Patrap:
I'm only Happy when it rains.........


You'd be happy every day here, Pat. It's been looking like rain all day, and it's going to pour in about 15 minutes at my location.

Daily rain feeds the soul! :)

Gonna get Wet Soon.....
As Hagupit is heading west towards Vietnam, the next system is about to form behind it, between 140 and 150W; it's 96W and already got its floater.


Quoting 64. Sfloridacat5:

Here's our chilly week. People up north would probably call it Fall like. But if we get down in the 40s for four nights in a row, that's pretty good.
7 day for Fort Myers



Late summer like, maybe early fall, here in S C IL. Lovely late fall, cloudy 34 w/34 dew pt & wind chill. 30.32" w/ lighter N-NNW winds gusting into upper teens. Lovely cuz daughter arrives home from ASU for 21 days. She's going to freeze, though we are supposed to get into 50s possibly this weekend, so walking into the Geils/Seger concert Sat won't be too bad.
Just sitting here contemplating some of the entries and trying to figure out if some of the newer weather terms of art emerging into the lingo (like "bomb a genesis" or "polar vortex") are actually going to make it into future editions of Roget's Thesaurus................................
Quoting 69. PedleyCA:
Gonna get Wet Soon.....


Pedley, here is something for you and other Californians who long for rain. A nice video production with the best strips of older and newer movies dealing with rain. Texts are mostly in French (as it is a German-French TV channel for culture, named "Arte", which has recently produced it), but the pictures speak for themselves, and maybe you recognize quite a lot of them (those which come from Hollywood at least). Enjoy, I have to go for now (and caution as there is one strip with some seconds of quite a lot naked skin as well ;-):

Quoting dabirds:
Late summer like, maybe early fall. Lovely late fall cloudy 34 w/34 dew pt & wind chill. 30.32" w/ lighter N-NNW winds gusting into upper teens. Lovely cuz daughter arrives home from ASU for 21 days. She's going to freeze, though we are supposed to get into 50s possibly this weekend, so walking into the Geils/Seger concert Sat won't be too bad.


I know how you feel. My daughter goes to U.T. Austin and I can't wait to see her.
OMG, the winds just started here on Cape Cod. I mean, it's been windy, but it's a constant freight train sound now - the trees are doing figure 8s and the sky is a weird yellow. Been raining all day, everything's soaked, and more's coming.

I've never been more scared in the +30 years I've lived here than in the series of storms that have hit us in the past 6 months. And I've been through hurricanes.
Now the sky is a weird orange -

...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM EST this evening...

* location...Massachusetts and Rhode Island coasts.

* Winds...gusts up to 50 mph from the east or northeast. A few gusts to 60 mph possible near Cape Cod and the islands through 7 PM.

* Timing...strongest winds through 8 PM.

* Impacts...winds this strong are capable of Downing tree limbs and branches...possibly causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult...especially for high profile vehicles.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory is issued for strong winds which can cause minor damage. Secure any loose outdoor items such as trash cans or Holiday decorations. Drivers should be prepared for sudden wind gusts...which can make driving difficult...especially on bridges.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at www.Weather.Gov/Boston


Cloud enhancement and cyclogenesis becoming more evident as 200 mph jet max approaches the West Coast.
Quoting 71. barbamz:

As Hagupit is heading west towards Vietnam, the next system is about to form behind it, between 140 and 150W; it's 96W and already got its floater.



That blob ESE of Hagupit will have a chance of developing..I really hope that it does not form.

Quoting 78. klaatuborada:

Now the sky is a weird orange -

...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM EST this evening...

* location...Massachusetts and Rhode Island coasts.

* Winds...gusts up to 50 mph from the east or northeast. A few gusts to 60 mph possible near Cape Cod and the islands through 7 PM.

* Timing...strongest winds through 8 PM.

* Impacts...winds this strong are capable of Downing tree limbs and branches...possibly causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult...especially for high profile vehicles.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory is issued for strong winds which can cause minor damage. Secure any loose outdoor items such as trash cans or Holiday decorations. Drivers should be prepared for sudden wind gusts...which can make driving difficult...especially on bridges.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at www.Weather.Gov/Boston


Orange in clouds often signifies the presence of sulfur oxides, perhaps dropping out of the stratosphere in a tropospheric fold, remnant of volcanic activity somewhere. Saw a lot of it here in the SF Bay Area in the months after a major eruption down in Mexico and also after Pinatubo.


good news heavy rain move north of new haven less flooding for us
Quoting 67. CaneFreeCR:

"Huge Rainstorm Poised to Ease California's Thirst" - but sadly, they'll probably go back to their water-wasting ways once there's a bit more water in the reservoirs and snow in the mountains, forgetting that all that rain is probably having zero effect on the deeply-drawn-down Central Valley aquifer, which they'll be pumping to make up the difference from the (possibly) restricted water from the reservoirs. The drought ain't over yet, folks!


If and when there's 20 feet or more of snowpack along the Sierra crest and the Yolo ByPass is taking overflow, and of course, when we see the levels come up significantly at Shasta, Oroville Hetch Hetchy, etc., and in Spring, if we see Lake Tulare, then it will be over.
They've posted high wind warnings for inland areas now since the forecast strong gradient will be inducing southeast winds, i.e. winds aligned with most of the linear valleys in California. Lots of unimpeded fetch. I'm a little puzzled about why we're only seeing gale warnings along the coast, but perhaps they want to wait until things get going. With such a strong jet overhead, turbulence should be capable of bringing some powerful gusts to the surface, especially given the abnormal SSTs which should add to the instability.


big flooding tonight look how high the river is here in new haven,conn
89. vis0
Quoting 31. sar2401:

Yes, but to be technical, "nevada" properly translates to "snowfall". Sierra also translates into "hacksaw". "Sierra Nevada" could translate into "Snowfall Hacksaw". We tend to use language that's understood, not what's linguistically pure.


Hacksaw snowfall...anything slower than a hacksaw might have "eje"%u25C4(spanish) in name. Hacksaw being faster is considered to mean in SAmerican latin folklore or parable when used to name areas of nature, "maximum" therefore max snow. (i'm  Nu Yorican part Mian (thus an old clue i used was "Myan" sure its misspelled but to those that asked i let them know it was a clue as to My ancestors.  Notice who posted last wed/thur/fri to look out for El Nino TEMP starting on Dec 8/9 /-3 days while at that same time the pros either said no muich or wait till this Sat Dec 13th. Try reading my last blog (in the comments to it)  at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/vis0/comment.html ?entrynum=257.  (remember i at times place my words in an image therefore some of my CLUEs will not be viewable to those that do not click on image placeholders that are unloaded.)

THE FOLLOWING IS JUST TO GET IT OFF MY CHEST the few that follow me (mostly from my 1998-2000AD  About.com/sci pgs)  said i should post it. i made over 60 predictions, (includes earthquakes all averaged above 80% correct) and only one prediction that fell under 75% in my 2002/2006-2014 WxU pgs . It was my below 50% correct this yrs TS season on maxweather's blog, as i posted 14/15 names (the xtra was to be a Sandy like storm). Why off by so much?  i made the decision as i researched 4 prominent weather experts in all stating monster El Nino so i stinking in physics followed their expertise and not my expertise in the science of Galacsics...what would i have posted if only via the science i call  Galacsics? 10 named, with 1.2 during this winter (a Sandy like but mostly extra-tropical and another TS, yes during winter), so still wrong even with the science of Galacsics....but not by 50%.

 PLEASE THOSE IN CA do not underestimate the floods also get those blue large containers out to catch the liquid that is called rain as it can be used to add moisture to dry lands nearer ones homes, just in case the rain lasts for only 9-14 days ( /-3 days), the wetter area around homes can protect from other dangers that spread faster if land is too dry,peace
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
125 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2014

CAZ068-069-101200-
/O.UPG.KSTO.WS.A.0008.141211T0200Z-141213T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KSTO.BZ.W.0001.141211T0600Z-141212T2100Z/
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
125 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2014

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PST
FRIDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING ABOVE 6000 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* IMPACTS:EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. PASSES MAY
CLOSE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 10 TO 20 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH 2 TO 3
FEET OR MORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

* SNOW LEVELS: SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 6500 FEET LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOWERING TO 4500 TO 5500 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

* WIND: SOUTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH OR
HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS
DECREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN NATIONAL PARK...DONNER PASS...
ECHO SUMMIT...CARSON PASS.
Hagupit and 96W



Quoting 86. BayFog:



If and when there's 20 feet or more of snowpack along the Sierra crest and the Yolo ByPass is taking overflow, and of course, when we see the levels come up significantly at Shasta, Oroville Hetch Hetchy, etc., and in Spring, if we see Lake Tulare, then it will be over.
Not over, just fended off for a while. And none of that is going to recharge the Central Valley Aquifer, so those who live there whose wells aren't deep enough are still out of luck for water. And I suspect that the reservoirs and snowpack won't get all that completely replenished. Can always hope, though.


next 7 days not bad for winter mid 40S
Quoting 92. CaneFreeCR:

Not over, just fended off for a while. And none of that is going to recharge the Central Valley Aquifer, so those who live there whose wells aren't deep enough are still out of luck for water. And I suspect that the reservoirs and snowpack won't get all that completely replenished. Can always hope, though.


The aquifer is all about overuse by agriculture which has been going on for over a hundred years, not drought.
Quoting klaatuborada:
OMG, the winds just started here on Cape Cod. I mean, it's been windy, but it's a constant freight train sound now - the trees are doing figure 8s and the sky is a weird yellow. Been raining all day, everything's soaked, and more's coming.

I've never been more scared in the 30 years I've lived here than in the series of storms that have hit us in the past 6 months. And I've been through hurricanes.


If you're out on the Cape the strongest wind you experienced was most likely associated with the strong band/line that went through a little earlier. You can see the band lined up from east to west as it went through the Cape. Cape Cod CGAS, Massachusetts (Airport) recorded a gust of 61 mph when that line passed through the area.

Another band is lining up south of the Cape moving towards the north. These bands will have the strongest winds associated with them.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Granted, my very miniscule carbon footprint is so because I am a poor man. Why can't rich people like these guys set a better example?

I have the answer to my question, but you don't want to here it.

Lima Climate Talks Set for Record Carbon Footprint

Hardly green, Lima U.N. climate talks on track for record carbon footprint.
I wonder about the carbon footprint for these amazing displays of Christmas lights too.

Picking Lima for a world conference on global warming was really a stroke of genius. The December weather is almost constant clouds and high humidity, which is why solar panels don't work. The article highlights many of the problems trying to get anything done in Peru. Things just "don't work" with no rhyme or reason, and things ordered just "don't arrive", mostly because they got stolen. The public transit system is an absolute disaster, with buses that don't go anywhere and taxis that are a constant round of haggling for the fare. The metro is great but it runs straight to the suburbs with almost no stops in Lima. The city center and central business district are beautiful...until you travel a couple of miles in any direction. Then you're surrounded by some of the most squalid slums in the Western Hemisphere. The crime problem is out of control. The guards at my hotel wore body armor and carried automatic weapons. I spent five of the worst days of my life there trying to figure out why a hydro project was so far behind schedule. After five days, I didn't know any more than when I walked out of the airport. Good luck to the UN. They're going to need it.
25N 80W Muy Frio


We seem to have a west coast * east coast thing getting ready to go down...noaa where art thou? :)
And grandpa cantore looks good with a beard
Everyone stay safe
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Actually I think TSA won't be as bothered by the term "Bergeron" as by what it replaced.
Somehow, I don't think a TV met saying "OMG! There's a storm of 1.2 bergeron intensity headed straight for the city!" is ever going to replace "bomb". ;-)
Quoting BayFog:


The aquifer is all about overuse by agriculture which has been going on for over a hundred years, not drought.


From "Groundwater Pumping Threatens U.S. Food Supply":

"In the early 20th century, farmers in California's Central Valley began pumping groundwater to irrigate their crops. Over time, groundwater levels dropped as much as 400 feet in some places. From the 1930s to '70s, state and federal agencies built a system of dams, reservoirs and canals to transfer water from the relatively water-rich north to the very dry south. Since then, groundwater levels in some areas have risen as much as 300 feet. In the High Plains, farmers first began large-scale pumping of groundwater for crop irrigation in the 1930s and '40s; but irrigation greatly expanded in response to the 1950s drought. Since then, groundwater levels there have steadily declined, in some places more than 150 feet."

So pumping started a long time ago but groundwater has been partially restored by capturing surface water and [allowing natural] recharging [of] aquifers, but drought prevents that from happening. Further, drought causes increased depletion of groundwater since more wells are drilled during drought.
I have a new neighbor...and they are from Florida.Key west to be exact.They have never seen snow before and it is always so priceless when people who have never seen snow in person start seeing it for the first time.This is gonna be good!.They saw flakes and nearly slipped out of there skin!.I said if you think that's exciting wait until it comes in inches and feet (on those rare occassions like February 2010).
Quoting 79. washingtonian115:




What the city looks like if all the snow forecast by the most cherrypicked models used by snow lovers, verifies.
Quoting 74. weathermanwannabe:

Just sitting here contemplating some of the entries and trying to figure out if some of the newer weather terms of art emerging into the lingo (like "bomb a genesis" or "polar vortex") are actually going to make it into future editions of Roget's Thesaurus................................

Some others

NEW TERM ..... WHAT IT USUALLY MEANS

unprecedented ---- precedented
century ..... A two to five year period defining the average return time of interesting events
Millennium ..... five "centuries"
"All time" ..... 100-200 years.


Yes, more coming. If this weather pattern continues we're in for a wild winter.

And hey Patrap! Long time no see, now see.

Quoting 97. Sfloridacat5:



If you're out on the Cape the strongest wind you experienced was most likely associated with the strong band/line that went through a little earlier. You can see the band lined up from east to west as it went through the Cape. Cape Cod CGAS, Massachusetts (Airport) recorded a gust of 61 mph when that line passed through the area.

Another band is lining up south of the Cape moving towards the north. These bands will have the strongest winds associated with them.

The East Coast thing must be all hype because Masters didn't even mention it in his blog.
Since we've had about 25 "Storm of the Century"s in the past few years, I think we have to create a new term for that as well.

Quoting 106. georgevandenberghe:


Some others

NEW TERM WHAT IT USUALLY MEANS

unprecedented precedented
century A two to five year period defining the average return time of interesting events
Millennium five "centuries"
"All time" 100-200 years.



California has been having such a long drought I'm not surprised he didn't talk about us. The need for rain their is tantamount.

The problem here is that the ground's been saturated for a while, and this is the 4th storm in 5 weeks that's dumped rain in the East Coast region, bringing snow to the South - down in Virginia even, Western Mass, NY, and North in Vermont and New Hampshire. The centers of these storms have been passing incredibly close to Cape Cod, the wind gusts steady at 30-40 with gusts 50-60+, but we've only had rain, but the tree debris after every storms been incredible. I've never seen these kind of storms, one after the other here before. We didn't get a hurricane all Summer, but the Nor'Easters seem to be lining up for a heyday.

Quoting 108. ohzone:

The East Coast thing must be all hype because Masters didn't even mention it in his blog.
The 18z GFS parallel indicates 3-4ft of snow in the highest elevations of the northern Sierras as the most severe storm system in several years impacts California. Lower elevations across northern California are forecast to receive anywhere from 2-4" of rain. Even though the chances of this event eliminating the ongoing historic drought are next to zero, this should put a dent in it.



Quoting 108. ohzone:

The East Coast thing must be all hype because Masters didn't even mention it in his blog.
It's not really targeting the major cities on the east coast with anything but rain. It's an inland storm for the most part.
113. Inyo
Quoting 31. sar2401:

Yes, but to be technical, "nevada" properly translates to "snowfall". Sierra also translates into "hacksaw". "Sierra Nevada" could translate into "Snowfall Hacksaw". We tend to use language that's understood, not what's linguistically pure.


Sierra means ragged mountain ridge, or just mountains. since it's by far the biggest mountain range in California (by some measures the biggest single range in the lower 48), I don't see what's wrong with calling it "the mountains" just like people living in areas near NYC call it "the city".

Language is fluid. correcting people over stuff like that is just annoying trolling.
Warmer Pacific Ocean could release millions of tons of seafloor methane

Off the West Coast of the United States, methane gas is trapped in frozen layers below the seafloor. New research from the University of Washington shows that water at intermediate depths is warming enough to cause these carbon deposits to melt, releasing methane into the sediments and surrounding water.

Researchers found that water off the coast of Washington is gradually warming at a depth of 500 meters, about a third of a mile down. That is the same depth where methane transforms from a solid to a gas. The research suggests that ocean warming could be triggering the release of a powerful greenhouse gas.


Link
Hagupit has a decent looking outflow.



96W will likely form..

High Wind Threat

In addition, a pulse of strong winds, with some gusts from 40 to 60 mph, is surging northward ahead of the developing low pressure system. This zone of strong winds will lift from southern New England Tuesday evening into northern New England, particularly coastal Maine, later Tuesday night. These winds could produce scattered power outages and knock down tree limbs and weaker trees.

Falmouth, Massachusetts, has already clocked a top gust of 61 mph around 4 p.m. Tuesday.
Some pictures from today's nor'easter at the Jersey Shore. Locals have admitted the storm was the worst since Sandy, but significant damage was averted. From Newsworks.

Manasquan


Mystic Island


Seaside Park


Beach Haven
Snowing HARD here in eastern Vermont. Took me an hour to get the 12 miles home from work. We must be in a favored location here for this storm, because it looks to be close to a foot so far, and forecast at 6 said another 4-6 before midnight, then ice. Love the snow, not happy about the ice.

We are trying to get things done before the power goes. Try not to strain the generator too hard. It sure is beautiful, now that I am home safe. I hope every one makes it home safe.

The flooding down on the Jersey Shore looks terrible. Hope there is no damage from the rain or ice!

Glad the West Coast is getting some much needed rain.
Quoting 115. ColoradoBob1:

Warmer Pacific Ocean could release millions of tons of seafloor methane

Off the West Coast of the United States, methane gas is trapped in frozen layers below the seafloor. New research from the University of Washington shows that water at intermediate depths is warming enough to cause these carbon deposits to melt, releasing methane into the sediments and surrounding water.

Researchers found that water off the coast of Washington is gradually warming at a depth of 500 meters, about a third of a mile down. That is the same depth where methane transforms from a solid to a gas. The research suggests that ocean warming could be triggering the release of a powerful greenhouse gas.


Link
wait till ya see the methane eruptions then we be in trouble serious trouble
Quoting 79. washingtonian115:




That's a pretty cool picture.
Quoting 95. BayFog:



The aquifer is all about overuse by agriculture which has been going on for over a hundred years, not drought.
Probably worth bearing in mind the demand for water in California, and a large part of any water shortage (add: there) has a great deal to do with a huge increase in population, especially since WWII and especially in southern California, most of which would be a desert without the water that is brought in. Closer to maybe where you are, the population influx from San Jose up and around the east Bay area is tremendous since the 1960s. Other areas, too - toward and into the foothills from Sacramento... the SF peninsula... along Monterey Bay - have experienced huge population growth in the past 50 years. And those are just examples I have seen in my lifetime. Truth is, it's not easy to to find a relatively untouched California town that's still populated with families that go back to the Gold Rush, or even back to 1906. I know of a couple places but I ain't sayin' where. ;)

As far as "The Aquifer"... Significant amounts of Sacramento and San Joaquin water had been shifted off agriculture since the salmon restoration projects got started. This may have forced more groundwater use when river/aqueduct water formerly available to farming was gradually withdrawn. In any case, the traditional and legal avenues for water use in California have been and still are complicated, and it's probably best not to blame a shortage on ranchers and growers when large populations find themselves scrambling for water sources.
Quoting 120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till ya see the methane eruptions then we be in trouble serious trouble


From the link :
Researchers now hope to verify the calculations with new measurements. For the past few years, curious fishermen have sent UW oceanographers sonar images showing mysterious columns of bubbles. Solomon and Johnson just returned from a cruise to check out some of those sites at depths where Solomon believes they could be caused by warming water.

“Those images the fishermen sent were 100 percent accurate,” Johnson said. “Without them we would have been shooting in the dark.
Quoting Inyo:


Sierra means ragged mountain ridge, or just mountains. since it's by far the biggest mountain range in California (by some measures the biggest single range in the lower 48), I don't see what's wrong with calling it "the mountains" just like people living in areas near NYC call it "the city".

Language is fluid. correcting people over stuff like that is just annoying trolling.
Yes, it is, but some people think it's a contribution. :-)

Those of us in the Bay Area just referred to the Sierras as "The Hill" as in "I'm going over The Hill tomorrow to Reno". It was actually pretty rare to even hear the word "Sierras" since we all knew what The Hill meant. This will definitely not be a good time to go over The Hill come Thursday. This is the kind of storm that will close all the routes over the passes and leave those foolish enough to attempt the feat stranded. It happened to me once, when I was younger and more foolish than I am now. I made sure it never happened again.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


From the link :
Researchers now hope to verify the calculations with new measurements. For the past few years, curious fishermen have sent UW oceanographers sonar images showing mysterious columns of bubbles. Solomon and Johnson just returned from a cruise to check out some of those sites at depths where Solomon believes they could be caused by warming water.

“Those images the fishermen sent were 100 percent accurate,” Johnson said. “Without them we would have been shooting in the dark.
It would be kind of cool to see columns of flaming methane off the coast. It might even turn into a tourist attraction when whale watching season is over. It sure would be hard for the deniers to not know something weird was happening with the climate after seeing something like that.
Cool, breezy and mostly sunny. 46/61
This week looks dry.

Quoting 127. sar2401:

It would be kind of cool to see columns of flaming methane off the coast. It might even turn into a tourist attraction when whale watching season is over. It sure would be hard for the deniers to not know something weird was happening with the climate after seeing something like that.



Please explain how warming water would cause methane to be released?
Quoting VermontStorms:
Snowing HARD here in eastern Vermont. Took me an hour to get the 12 miles home from work. We must be in a favored location here for this storm, because it looks to be close to a foot so far, and forecast at 6 said another 4-6 before midnight, then ice. Love the snow, not happy about the ice.

We are trying to get things done before the power goes. Try not to strain the generator too hard. It sure is beautiful, now that I am home safe. I hope every one makes it home safe.

The flooding down on the Jersey Shore looks terrible. Hope there is no damage from the rain or ice!

Glad the West Coast is getting some much needed rain.
It must be a real pretty Christmas card scene up there. It's always nice to look out the big window at a storm like that when you're warm and safe inside. It doesn't look like any icing will last too long or accumulate enough to cause problem. It looks like, at least for southern Vermont, that it will be all rain before the front passes through. Hope your power lasts or at least you have enough wood in the pile to keep warm.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



Please explain how warming water would cause methane to be released?
Well, according to these scientists guys, there's a layer of frozen methane down 500 meters in the Pacific off Washington state. As the ocean overturns in its usual cycle, the water coming down to just above the methane warms enough to melt the methane ice and the methane then turns to gas, releasing giant columns of methane that, as long as someone was out there with their Bic, could turn into giant towering flames, thus the tourist attraction.

I'm just guessing about that last part though. :-)
Look at Mexico. Really?

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



Please explain how warming water would cause methane to be released?


1. Warmer water can hold less dissolved gases

2. Warmer water can liberate methane hydrates.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
This week looks dry.

Hmm...I'm in that white area again...and it doesn't mean snow. We are starting to get a little anxious about the rain situation. Not approaching the point of panic yet, since we get a little every now and then. We haven't had a single event that gave us more than half an inch since October. The drought conditions are making it even harder for the native vegetation to deal with these cold snaps and it's not even January yet. I was hoping the cold front that should get here Monday might be a rain producer but that hope fades with every model run.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Look at Mexico. Really?

Measles outbreak. Time to rethink that trip across the border into Juarez, even if we discount the chance of getting shot in drug gang crossfire. :-)
Fantastic week coming up for West Palm Beach. Hope Christmas week will be just as nice. I know McKenzie is excited!



Quoting 130. VAbeachhurricanes:




Please explain how warming water would cause methane to be released?


Please ask da GOOGLE and get this..

December 9, 2014
Warmer Pacific Ocean could release millions of tons of seafloor methane


Hannah Hickey
News and Information

Off the West Coast of the United States, methane gas is trapped in frozen layers below the seafloor. New research from the University of Washington shows that water at intermediate depths is warming enough to cause these carbon deposits to melt, releasing methane into the sediments and surrounding water.

Researchers found that water off the coast of Washington is gradually warming at a depth of 500 meters, about a third of a mile down. That is the same depth where methane transforms from a solid to a gas. The research suggests that ocean warming could be triggering the release of a powerful greenhouse gas.

graphic of bubbles
Sonar image of bubbles rising from the seafloor off the Washington coast. The base of the column is 1/3 of a mile (515 meters) deep and the top of the plume is at 1/10 of a mile (180 meters) deep.Brendan Philip / UW

While scientists believe that global warming will release methane from gas hydrates worldwide, most of the current focus has been on deposits in the Arctic. This paper estimates that from 1970 to 2013, some 4 million metric tons of methane has been released from hydrate decomposition off Washington. That’s an amount each year equal to the methane from natural gas released in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout off the coast of Louisiana, and 500 times the rate at which methane is naturally released from the seafloor.

“Dissociation of Cascadia margin gas hydrates in response to contemporary ocean warming”

Geophysical Research Letters | Dec. 5, 2014

“Methane hydrates are a very large and fragile reservoir of carbon that can be released if temperatures change,” Solomon said. “I was skeptical at first, but when we looked at the amounts, it’s significant.”

Methane is the main component of natural gas. At cold temperatures and high ocean pressure, it combines with water into a crystal called methane hydrate. The Pacific Northwest has unusually large deposits of methane hydrates because of its biologically productive waters and strong geologic activity. But coastlines around the world hold deposits that could be similarly vulnerable to warming.

“This is one of the first studies to look at the lower-latitude margin,” Solomon said. “We’re showing that intermediate-depth warming could be enhancing methane release.”

map of Washington coast
The yellow dots show all the ocean temperature measurements off the Washington coast from 1970 to 2013. The green triangles are places where scientists and fishermen have seen columns of bubbles. The stars are where the UW researchers took more measurements to check whether the plumes are due to warming water.Una Miller / UW

Co-author Una Miller, a UW oceanography undergraduate, first collected thousands of historic temperature measurements in a region off the Washington coast as part of a separate research project in the lab of co-author Paul Johnson, a UW professor of oceanography. The data revealed the unexpected sub-surface ocean warming signal.

“Even though the data was raw and pretty messy, we could see a trend,” Miller said. “It just popped out.”

The four decades of data show deeper water has, perhaps surprisingly, been warming the most due to climate change.

“A lot of the earlier studies focused on the surface because most of the data is there,” said co-author Susan Hautala, a UW associate professor of oceanography. “This depth turns out to be a sweet spot for detecting this trend.” The reason, she added, is that it lies below water nearer the surface that is influenced by long-term atmospheric cycles.

The warming water probably comes from the Sea of Okhotsk, between Russia and Japan, where surface water becomes very dense and then spreads east across the Pacific. The Sea of Okhotsk is known to have warmed over the past 50 years, and other studies have shown that the water takes a decade or two to cross the Pacific and reach the Washington coast.

“We began the collaboration when we realized this is also the most sensitive depth for methane hydrate deposits,” Hautala said. She believes the same ocean currents could be warming intermediate-depth waters from Northern California to Alaska, where frozen methane deposits are also known to exist.

researchers deploying instrument
Researchers used a coring machine to gather samples of sediment off Washington’s coast to see if observations match their calculations for warming-induced methane release. The photo was taken in October aboard the UW’s Thomas G. Thompson research vessel.Robert Cannata / UW

Warming water causes the frozen edge of methane hydrate to move into deeper water. On land, as the air temperature warms on a frozen hillside, the snowline moves uphill. In a warming ocean, the boundary between frozen and gaseous methane would move deeper and farther offshore. Calculations in the paper show that since 1970 the Washington boundary has moved about 1 kilometer – a little more than a half-mile – farther offshore. By 2100, the boundary for solid methane would move another 1 to 3 kilometers out to sea.

Estimates for the future amount of gas released from hydrate dissociation this century are as high as 0.4 million metric tons per year off the Washington coast, or about quadruple the amount of methane from the Deepwater Horizon blowout each year.

Still unknown is where any released methane gas would end up. It could be consumed by bacteria in the seafloor sediment or in the water, where it could cause seawater in that area to become more acidic and oxygen-deprived. Some methane might also rise to the surface, where it would release into the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas, compounding the effects of climate change.

researchers on ship
Evan Solomon (right) and Marta Torres (left, OSU) aboard the UW’s Thomas G. Thompson research vessel in October, with fluid samples from the seafloor that will help answer whether the columns of methane bubbles are due to ocean warming.Robert Cannata / UW

Researchers now hope to verify the calculations with new measurements. For the past few years, curious fishermen have sent UW oceanographers sonar images showing mysterious columns of bubbles. Solomon and Johnson just returned from a cruise to check out some of those sites at depths where Solomon believes they could be caused by warming water.

“Those images the fishermen sent were 100 percent accurate,” Johnson said. “Without them we would have been shooting in the dark.”

Johnson and Solomon are analyzing data from that cruise to pinpoint what’s triggering this seepage, and the fate of any released methane. The recent sightings of methane bubbles rising to the sea surface, the authors note, suggests that at least some of the seafloor gas may reach the surface and vent to the atmosphere.

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy. The other co-author is Robert Harris at Oregon State University.

###
For more information, contact Solomon at 206-221-6745 or esolomn@uw.edu and Hautala at 206-543-0596 or hautala@uw.edu.


,,from dis...

About 26,200,000 results (0.61 seconds)
Evening all. Just dropping in for a couple minutes to note that we've actually got a cold front that's got cold temps with it at last. It's currently 68 with rain, and the wind earlier today kept the air temps down despite early sunshine. I took a few pics of the wind-pressed waves breaking on the reef as I was headed home this p.m. .... will post a couple shortly.

I actually had to take out a jacket for cold as opposed to rain this evening .... lol ...
Quoting 112. Drakoen:


It's not really targeting the major cities on the east coast with anything but rain. It's an inland storm for the most part.



Yep. Just south of Wash DC it's been a gloomy, soggy day. Nothing to get excited about. If it was a telework day for anyone, even less excitement (not having to deal with traffic).
Quoting 125. ColoradoBob1:



From the link :
Researchers now hope to verify the calculations with new measurements. For the past few years, curious fishermen have sent UW oceanographers sonar images showing mysterious columns of bubbles. Solomon and Johnson just returned from a cruise to check out some of those sites at depths where Solomon believes they could be caused by warming water.

“Those images the fishermen sent were 100 percent accurate,” Johnson said. “Without them we would have been shooting in the dark.

Good to know they're not 100% shooting in the dark about this methane thing. It appears with all the "coulds" and "suggestions" they're only 50% or so shooting in the dark. Like the IPCC report years back predicting warmer water, or more water vapor, or more or less something COULD lead to a greater than 50% chance of more frequent/intense cyclones. Meanwhile, the oceans keep rising, this we know.
Record Report
Statement as of 4:35 PM EST on December 09, 2014
...Record daily maximum rainfall set at Bridgeport CT...

A record rainfall of 2.07 inches was set at Bridgeport CT today. This breaks the old record of 1.45 set in 1978.
Brunswick, Georgia
50 °F
Clear
(bats eyelashes)

oh the heck with it.


Sonar image of bubbles rising from the seafloor off the Washington coast. The base of the column is 1/3 of a mile (515 meters) deep and the top of the plume is at 1/10 of a mile (180 meters) deep.Brendan Philip / UW



While scientists believe that global warming will release methane from gas hydrates worldwide, most of the current focus has been on deposits in the Arctic. This paper estimates that from 1970 to 2013, some 4 million metric tons of methane has been released from hydrate decomposition off Washington. That%u2019s an amount each year equal to the methane from natural gas released in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout off the coast of Louisiana, and 500 times the rate at which methane is naturally released from the seafloor.
148. Inyo
Quoting 131. sar2401:

It must be a real pretty Christmas card scene up there. It's always nice to look out the big window at a storm like that when you're warm and safe inside. It doesn't look like any icing will last too long or accumulate enough to cause problem. It looks like, at least for southern Vermont, that it will be all rain before the front passes through. Hope your power lasts or at least you have enough wood in the pile to keep warm.


Here in the Montpelier area we have had wet snow all day, and about an hour ago got an amazing snow band come through with snowflake clumps, not kidding, two or three inches across. Looked like soap suds falling from the sky, or weird misshapen golf balls. I've seen big snow clumps but that just about took the cake. each one added at least 1/4 an inch of snow when it squished on to the ground. Still we've gotten maybe 4 inches today, no more, since its wet and heavy.

Was looking out for thundersnow and sure enough saw one big flash. Pretty sure it was lightning, the trees aren't loaded down enough to take down powerlines and it's not windy at all. Almost completely calm.

They are saying we may get sleet and rain tomorrow. I'm hoping to keep the snow. I doubt too much will melt as the highs won't get beyond the mid 30s. More light snow later on anyway. What an odd storm!
Quoting 149. BahaHurican:





:P
1 million tons, two million tons, three million tons.................


Quoting 124. Barefootontherocks:

Probably worth bearing in mind the demand for water in California, and a large part of any water shortage (add: there) has a great deal to do with a huge increase in population, especially since WWII and especially in southern California, most of which would be a desert without the water that is brought in. Closer to maybe where you are, the population influx from San Jose up and around the east Bay area is tremendous since the 1960s. Other areas, too - toward and into the foothills from Sacramento... the SF peninsula... along Monterey Bay - have experienced huge population growth in the past 50 years. And those are just examples I have seen in my lifetime. Truth is, it's not easy to to find a relatively untouched California town that's still populated with families that go back to the Gold Rush, or even back to 1906. I know of a couple places but I ain't sayin' where. ;)

As far as "The Aquifer"... Significant amounts of Sacramento and San Joaquin water had been shifted off agriculture since the salmon restoration projects got started. This may have forced more groundwater use when river/aqueduct water formerly available to farming was gradually withdrawn. In any case, The traditional and legal avenues for water use in California have been and still are complicated, and it's probably best not to blame a shortage on ranchers and growers when large populations find themselves scrambling for water sources.


Yes definitely. I grew up in bonafide desert by Palm Springs, but when I moved back out there from San Diego, it was bonafide tropical looking! SO much water brought in to keep everything looking like anything, but desert. It's nothing but lame, as I don't think they'll ever learn..or those with the strings etc, ever care..unless it ever hits their profits enough.

BahaHurican...you know 68' is beach, shorts and tshirt weather here! haha

Washi, I'm sure I saw that photo of the fog around the skyscraper tops, as a meme from when Colorado's legalization of marijuana came into effect...with the text "meanwhile, in Denver"...made me laugh I must admit!

'Alexandra' has been giving us much rain and wind here in North Wales, though really, doesn't seem anymore to me than most winter storms. Though, supposed to get stronger overnight. In the wind chart Barbamz posted earlier, I was right in the middle of the square gusts of kph 87, 106, 106, 81..so def windy...just still doesn't seem like any 'weatherbomb' bigger than the usual! Gosh, how did people 100 years ago deal with not having storms hyped up for them? ;)

Anyway, hope everyone is well and safe as can be!
Quoting 150. Grothar:




:P
Well, I wanted to see what it looked like.... [g]
Quoting 151. Grothar:

1 million tons, two million tons, three million tons.................





My bubbles :P
Quoting 152. mitthbevnuruodo:



.

BahaHurican...you know 68' is beach, shorts and tshirt weather here! haha


Well, I was only missing the shorts when I took the pics this afternoon.... then I went home and got out a jacket .... [g] .... 68 is FREEZING, meng! lol
Quoting 120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wait till ya see the methane eruptions then we be in trouble serious trouble
Sounds from these reports that we are already in serious trouble. If the methane hydrates off Washington are already gassing, it won't be long before those in the Arctic and off the US mid-Atlantic coast will join them -- not to mention those North of Russia and in the Chinese and European areas of the oceans. Could be we've passed that tipping point. Now what?
Graduated from Manasquan High School. Looks like that picture is on Brielle Road by the draw bridge. The glimmer glass floods that area on some full moons even without a storm. Nothing really uncommon for a robust Nor'easter.


Quoting 118. wxgeek723:

Some pictures from today's nor'easter at the Jersey Shore. Locals have admitted the storm was the worst since Sandy, but significant damage was averted. From Newsworks.

Manasquan


Mystic Island


Seaside Park


Beach Haven

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Fantastic week coming up for West Palm Beach. Hope Christmas week will be just as nice. I know McKenzie is excited!



Wow! You went all out for Christmas this year with that tree. Looks like McKenzie really likes it though. :-)
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Sounds from these reports that we are already in serious trouble. If the methane hydrates off Washington are already gassing, it won't be long before those in the Arctic and off the US mid-Atlantic coast will join them -- not to mention those North of Russia and in the Chinese and European areas of the oceans. Could be we've passed that tipping point. Now what?
The Arctic is going to have undergo a lot more warming before we worry about frozen methane thawing in the deep ocean basins. It's not even clear to me that the other areas you mentioned even have these layers of frozen methane and, if they do, how close to melting any of them are. I think the tipping point is still a ways off yet.
Quoting Inyo:


Here in the Montpelier area we have had wet snow all day, and about an hour ago got an amazing snow band come through with snowflake clumps, not kidding, two or three inches across. Looked like soap suds falling from the sky, or weird misshapen golf balls. I've seen big snow clumps but that just about took the cake. each one added at least 1/4 an inch of snow when it squished on to the ground. Still we've gotten maybe 4 inches today, no more, since its wet and heavy.

Was looking out for thundersnow and sure enough saw one big flash. Pretty sure it was lightning, the trees aren't loaded down enough to take down powerlines and it's not windy at all. Almost completely calm.

They are saying we may get sleet and rain tomorrow. I'm hoping to keep the snow. I doubt too much will melt as the highs won't get beyond the mid 30s. More light snow later on anyway. What an odd storm!
Man, I've seen a lot of snow but I've never seen snow clumps like that. You sure the plow wasn't too close to your house? :-)]

Seriously though, I really never have seen anything like you describe. Almost sounds like some weird form of snow hail. Vermont does get some wild weather.
Quoting BahaHurican:
And the mighty Minnow would be lost...
Quoting 145. aquak9:

(bats eyelashes)

oh the heck with it.


Uh oh... what did cosmic do? XD
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Good to know they're not 100% shooting in the dark about this methane thing. It appears with all the "coulds" and "suggestions" they're only 50% or so shooting in the dark. Like the IPCC report years back predicting warmer water, or more water vapor, or more or less something COULD lead to a greater than 50% chance of more frequent/intense cyclones. Meanwhile, the oceans keep rising, this we know.
Also says from the press release:

"Still unknown is where any released methane gas would end up. It could be consumed by bacteria in the seafloor sediment or in the water, where it could cause seawater in that area to become more acidic and oxygen-deprived. Some methane might also rise to the surface, where it would release into the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas, compounding the effects of climate change."

Sounds like there's still a few more things to work out before the giant pillar of flaming methane offshore gets to be a tourist attraction...
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Uh oh... what did cosmic do? XD
Oh, she just has the hots for Cosmic, that's all. Cosmic is playing hard to get. :-)
Quoting 164. sar2401:

Oh, she just has the hots for Cosmic, that's all. Cosmic is playing hard to get. :-)


Yeah, she always says " *bats eyelashes* Hi cosmic" until a while ago where she was like "the heck with it".
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 125 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2014 CAZ068-069-101200- /O.UPG.KSTO.WS.A.0008.141211T0200Z-141213T0200Z/ /O.NEW.KSTO.BZ.W.0001.141211T0600Z-141212T2100Z/ WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK- WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA- 125 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2014 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING ABOVE 6000 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * IMPACTS:EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. PASSES MAY CLOSE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 10 TO 20 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH 2 TO 3 FEET OR MORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST. * TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. * SNOW LEVELS: SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE 6500 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOWERING TO 4500 TO 5500 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. * WIND: SOUTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH OR HIGHER WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS DECREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN NATIONAL PARK...DONNER PASS... ECHO SUMMIT...CARSON PASS. * FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SACRAMENTO/HAZARDS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. && INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWS.SACRAMENTO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSSACRAMENTO $$
how can a girl
ignore a fella
with such a big HAT?
500th comment! Too bad nothing interesting's been happening weather-wise in St. Louis. Oh well, at least I'm done with finals.
As expected the watches and warnings continue to grow as we are now awaiting the arrival of our second bout of rain. What wasn't entirely expected was our forecast discussion and it's change in tone regarding our third bout of rain and wind on Wed/Thurs... Should be fun driving across the 520 bridge on Thursday. I suppose my car could use a good wash...

Excerpts from Seattle forecast discussion:
NOW FOR STORM NUMBER THREE...POTENTIALLY A STRONG OR EVEN MAJOR WINDSTORM AFFECTING PARTS OR ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. MODELS PRIOR TO TODAY`S 12Z RUNS WERE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. THIS HAS CHANGED WITH THE 12Z RUNS CONVERGING TOWARD A STRONGER WIND EVENT AFFECTING WRN WA INCLUDING THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION AND I-5 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...IF SOME MODELS ARE CORRECT...THIS MAY BE A REGIONAL STORM IMPACTING THE W COAST WITH HIGH WINDS FROM NEAR EUREKA CA NWD THROUGH ALL OF WRN OREGON AND WRN WA. VIRTUALLY ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS A STRONG WAVE REACHES 130W/40N...THEN MAKES A NWD TURN. THE GFS13/40 AND WRF-GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM DRIVING A NEAR 970 MB NWD OFF ASTORIA THURSDAY MORNING ...THEN NWD OVER OR JUST W OF PUGET SOUND. THIS WOULD BE A WORSE CASE SCENARIO ...LIKELY RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. IT IS STILL 36 TO 48 HOURS FROM THE EVENT AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW WOULD WEAKEN THE WIND THREAT CONSIDERABLY. ALSO...OTHER MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW. BUT THESE MODELS...THE ECMWF/NAM12...APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE OTHER MODELS WHICH LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION. ALL SOLUTIONS WOULD GIVE SOME WIND TO THE AREA. FORECAST SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT FOR THE REGION.
HAT? Who? Where?
Quoting 169. Seattleite:

As expected the watches and warnings continue to grow as we are now awaiting the arrival of our second bout of rain. What wasn't entirely expected was our forecast discussion and it's change in tone regarding our third bout of rain and wind on Wed/Thurs... Should be fun driving across the 520 bridge on Thursday. I suppose my car could use a good wash...

Excerpts from Seattle forecast discussion:
NOW FOR STORM NUMBER THREE...POTENTIALLY A STRONG OR EVEN MAJOR WINDSTORM AFFECTING PARTS OR ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. MODELS PRIOR TO TODAY`S 12Z RUNS WERE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH. THIS HAS CHANGED WITH THE 12Z RUNS CONVERGING TOWARD A STRONGER WIND EVENT AFFECTING WRN WA INCLUDING THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION AND I-5 CORRIDOR. IN FACT...IF SOME MODELS ARE CORRECT...THIS MAY BE A REGIONAL STORM IMPACTING THE W COAST WITH HIGH WINDS FROM NEAR EUREKA CA NWD THROUGH ALL OF WRN OREGON AND WRN WA. VIRTUALLY ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS A STRONG WAVE REACHES 130W/40N...THEN MAKES A NWD TURN. THE GFS13/40 AND WRF-GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM DRIVING A NEAR 970 MB NWD OFF ASTORIA THURSDAY MORNING ...THEN NWD OVER OR JUST W OF PUGET SOUND. THIS WOULD BE A WORSE CASE SCENARIO ...LIKELY RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. IT IS STILL 36 TO 48 HOURS FROM THE EVENT AND SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW WOULD WEAKEN THE WIND THREAT CONSIDERABLY. ALSO...OTHER MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW. BUT THESE MODELS...THE ECMWF/NAM12...APPEAR TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE OTHER MODELS WHICH LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION. ALL SOLUTIONS WOULD GIVE SOME WIND TO THE AREA. FORECAST SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT FOR THE REGION.



It'll be the biggest storm for california since 2009. Look at all the high wind watches and warnings for the state!
Quoting 167. aquak9:

how can a girl
ignore a fella
with such a big HAT?

You're making me blush again.
Remember the ol' beach photo with the big and little sombrero...to protect against flaming methane balls of course.
Quoting 156. CaneFreeCR:

Sounds from these reports that we are already in serious trouble. If the methane hydrates off Washington are already gassing, it won't be long before those in the Arctic and off the US mid-Atlantic coast will join them -- not to mention those North of Russia and in the Chinese and European areas of the oceans. Could be we've passed that tipping point. Now what?


Stuff dies off at a faster rate; important resources become scarcer, to name two.
174. txjac
Quoting 160. sar2401:

Man, I've seen a lot of snow but I've never seen snow clumps like that. You sure the plow wasn't too close to your house? :-)]

Seriously though, I really never have seen anything like you describe. Almost sounds like some weird form of snow hail. Vermont does get some wild weather.


I've seen the snowflake clumps previously ...lived in upper central Ohio (sandusky area). They are strange looking but I know what he/she is talking about. They are heavy and large
Quoting 168. TimTheWxMan:

500th comment! Too bad nothing interesting's been happening weather-wise in St. Louis. Oh well, at least I'm done with finals.

Still studying for mine.



Biology doesn't bother me that much though. Chemistry on the other hand...still waiting to see how I did on that final.
Heya everyone.

Current wind forecast shows that our blow hitting Fallon, NV is going to come up from the south. Can anyone help? I'd like to know, is the system spinning clockwise or counter-clockwise? I am prepping for the storm, and if there is an animated loop from some link somewhere where I can watch prediction and or progression, I'd sure appreciate it. The shed is staked down, my skirting is up, and we are well stocked in our larder in case of power line damage.

Quoting 178. nonblanche:

Heya everyone.

Current wind forecast shows that our blow hitting Fallon, NV is going to come up from the south. Can anyone help? I'd like to know, is the system spinning clockwise or counter-clockwise? I am prepping for the storm, and if there is an animated loop from some link somewhere where I can watch prediction and or progression, I'd sure appreciate it. The shed is staked down, my skirting is up, and we are well stocked in our larder in case of power line damage.
They get some nasty wind storms in the Fallon area. I always thought it was cool that the highest elevation on hWY 80 is 7227 feet I least I think that's the number :)
I can't help but think pat...are they just researching the WA area?Yay...talking to myself again .

Quoting 177. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Still studying for mine.



Biology doesn't bother me that much though. Chemistry on the other hand...still waiting to see how I did on that final.
Biology's fun. Other than meteorology, theology/philosophy, history, and biology are other fields I would have considered as careers.
Quoting 65. Patrap:

I'm only Happy when it rains.........


That sounds like "garbage" to me :-}
Quoting 178. nonblanche:

Heya everyone.

Current wind forecast shows that our blow hitting Fallon, NV is going to come up from the south. Can anyone help? I'd like to know, is the system spinning clockwise or counter-clockwise? I am prepping for the storm, and if there is an animated loop from some link somewhere where I can watch prediction and or progression, I'd sure appreciate it. The shed is staked down, my skirting is up, and we are well stocked in our larder in case of power line damage.


Counter clockwise, but the immediate cause of the wind will be a sharp strong cold front with a strong jetstream above that will be pulling in very strong southerly winds ahead of the front. It's the southerly winds ahead of the front, before the temperature drops that may be damaging. Winds may top 100 mph along the Sierra crest and passes. Needless to say, a blizzard warning is out.
Quoting 178. nonblanche:

Heya everyone.

Current wind forecast shows that our blow hitting Fallon, NV is going to come up from the south. Can anyone help? I'd like to know, is the system spinning clockwise or counter-clockwise? I am prepping for the storm, and if there is an animated loop from some link somewhere where I can watch prediction and or progression, I'd sure appreciate it. The shed is staked down, my skirting is up, and we are well stocked in our larder in case of power line damage.
No better time to make yourself a little wu blog. Put links and maps and radar in it. And a link to your NWS local office, or/and a link to your wu local forecast page... Find the regional wu radar that shows the area where the storms coming at you from, and a good water vapor loop and put them as updating images. If you might get some wintry precip, WSI's local radar is better than wu's for determining rain, ice and snow. They just upgraded wu's, so maybe wu's is on a par now.

No matter what kind of weather may be forecast, having a little collection of links gathered up in your own blog comes in handy. in case of lost power and net outage, real handy for phone to just go to your blog and find what you need. Most of what I suggest is intuitive and easy. If it isn't for you, I'm sure someone can help you find what you need/want - or wu mail me and I will.

You also might want to fill your vehicle with gas and keep some cash on hand.

I loved tracking this kind of winter storm when I lived in Pacific NW.
Enjoy!
Quoting 179. WaterWitch11:


They get some nasty wind storms in the Fallon area. I always thought it was cool that the highest elevation on hWY 80 is 7227 feet I least I think that's the number :)


Close enough. I just went to look it up and learned something new. I-80 does not traverse the actual Donner Pass, but close to it at a higher elevation. That would be 7,240 feet. The old Lincoln Highway (US 40), which has been preserved at Donner, does go through the actual Donner Pass at 7,056 feet. The old highway has a number of sharp hairpin curves and is very narrow, and according to the Wikipedia article, I-80 was shifted a few hundred yards north of it to take advantage of an easier upslope approach on the eastern side. Nevertheless, I-80 is signed "Donner Summit" at its cresting point. Beautiful spot in summer. Went hiking and biking thru some of the old Central Pacific tunnels once.

Quoting #126 sar2401:
... This is the kind of storm that will close all the routes over the passes and leave those foolish enough to attempt the feat stranded. It happened to me once, when I was younger and more foolish than I am now. I made sure it never happened again.
sar,

I'm very pleasantly reminded of an epic weekend friends and I shared about this time of year back in the Sierra. We were living in San Francisco and were avid alpine skiers. We saw a weather report, even more tantalizing than the one before us today. In that instance, an intense storm was coming in from the Gulf of Alaska, with snow levels down to 1,200 feet predicted. We started out from the City about 4 PM with several hours of rain already on the ground. By the time we made it to Placerville (elev. 1858 ft.) on Hwy. 50 the troopers had already shut down the highway and were allowing no one through due to avalanche danger. We parked about a mile from the Placerville exit, determined to make it up to Tahoe when the road re-opened. A friend and I hiked up the freeway passing hundreds of vehicles hunkered down like us. We went to the Safeway and grabbed a lovely picnic and candles to accommodate our impromptu camping situation. Returning to the vehicle, we had a glorious supper and blowing out the candles fell into sleeping bags for the wait. It was now about 7 PM. We got our wake up call at 4 AM. Caltrans had determined the avalanche danger was acceptable and they re-opened the road. Thousands of other skiers had turned back and were at home when we entered the Tahoe bowl marveling at an awakennig winter wonderland at 6 AM. Our motel reservations clicked in and we got about 2 more hours of shut-eye before the first lifts of the day at Heavenly were starting up. When we got to the top of the mountain we noticed two things. Perfect snow conditions and hardly any other skiers on the mountain. We had two days of bliss to follow.

Sometimes magic comes easy. Sometimes you gotta put a little backbone into the game.

Stranded, and loving it....  :)

Quoting #130   VAbeachhurricanes:



Please explain how warming water would cause methane to be released?
Warming water melts the water ice that holds methane in a tight matrix.

Here's an example of methane being released in a frozen over fresh water lake with the methane percolating out of the bottom of the lake.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Still studying for mine.



Biology doesn't bother me that much though. Chemistry on the other hand...still waiting to see how I did on that final.
The good thing is that, for your entire long life, you'll never worry about "balanced polymorphism" again. :-)
Quoting rayduray2013:

Warming water melts the water ice that holds methane in a tight matrix.

Here's an example of methane being released in a frozen over fresh water lake with the methane percolating out of the bottom of the lake.



See, that's what I mean. If we play this right, we could really work these towering methane gas pillars off shore into some pretty neat tourist attractions. What the heck, if it's going to happen anyway, might as well make a few bucks off it.
Quoting rayduray2013:

sar,

I'm very pleasantly reminded of an epic weekend friends and I shared about this time of year back in the Sierra. We were living in San Francisco and were avid alpine skiers. We saw a weather report, even more tantalizing than the one before us today. In that instance, an intense storm was coming in from the Gulf of Alaska, with snow levels down to 1,200 feet predicted. We started out from the City about 4 PM with several hours of rain already on the ground. By the time we made it to Placerville (elev. 1858 ft.) on Hwy. 50 the troopers had already shut down the highway and were allowing no one through due to avalanche danger. We parked about a mile from the Placerville exit, determined to make it up to Tahoe when the road re-opened. A friend and I hiked up the freeway passing hundreds of vehicles hunkered down like us. We went to the Safeway and grabbed a lovely picnic and candles to accommodate our impromptu camping situation. Returning to the vehicle, we had a glorious supper and blowing out the candles fell into sleeping bags for the wait. It was now about 7 PM. We got our wake up call at 4 AM. Caltrans had determined the avalanche danger was acceptable and they re-opened the road. Thousands of other skiers had turned back and were at home when we entered the Tahoe bowl marveling at an awakennig winter wonderland at 6 AM. Our motel reservations clicked in and we got about 2 more hours of shut-eye before the first lifts of the day at Heavenly were starting up. When we got to the top of the mountain we noticed two things. Perfect snow conditions and hardly any other skiers on the mountain. We had two days of bliss to follow.

Sometimes magic comes easy. Sometimes you gotta put a little backbone into the game.

Stranded, and loving it....  :)
Indeed, sounds quite pleasant. Now, try the same scenario, only you're in Ice House Canyon, far from the Safeway, with avalanches and mudslides on both sides of you and no one can get to you, including a helicopter, because it keeps snowing for two more days. Getting stopped at Placerville was a good thing, comparatively.
Quoting aquak9:
how can a girl
ignore a fella
with such a big HAT?
Hmm...maybe that's been my problem all along. I'll have to start looking for bigger hats...
Quoting BayFog:


Close enough. I just went to look it up and learned something new. I-80 does not traverse the actual Donner Pass, but close to it at a higher elevation. That would be 7,240 feet. The old Lincoln Highway (US 40), which has been preserved at Donner, does go through the actual Donner Pass at 7,056 feet. The old highway has a number of sharp hairpin curves and is very narrow, and according to the Wikipedia article, I-80 was shifted a few hundred yards north of it to take advantage of an easier upslope approach on the eastern side. Nevertheless, I-80 is signed "Donner Summit" at its cresting point. Beautiful spot in summer. Went hiking and biking thru some of the old Central Pacific tunnels once.
Yeah, you can get off at Norden eastbound and drive the old Highway 40 to Donner Lake, including the famous Rainbow Bridge, which was still there ten years ago anyway. I think Caltrans has it in "suspended animation" where they only do enough work to keep the bridge from falling in and the old road from deteriorating too much. When you drive it, remember that road was "state of the art" in 1940 and you'd be behind some big, slow truck the whole way. Our expectations have changed some.
Quoting 130. VAbeachhurricanes:




Please explain how warming water would cause methane to be released?


Methane hydrate :



Based on their geologic fieldwork and subsequent chemical analysis of the gas and sediments from eight pingo-like features, Paull and his coauthors propose an alternative hypothesis: Pingo-like features form when methane hydrate (a frozen mixture of gas and seawater) decomposes beneath the seafloor, releasing gas that squeezes deep sediments up onto the seafloor like toothpaste from a tube.

Link
Quoting nonblanche:
Heya everyone.

Current wind forecast shows that our blow hitting Fallon, NV is going to come up from the south. Can anyone help? I'd like to know, is the system spinning clockwise or counter-clockwise? I am prepping for the storm, and if there is an animated loop from some link somewhere where I can watch prediction and or progression, I'd sure appreciate it. The shed is staked down, my skirting is up, and we are well stocked in our larder in case of power line damage.
Big, deep low to the north with the pressure gradient around the low getting tighter, so you get the south winds until the front goes through. The precipitation shouldn't really get to you until after the front passes, so once you start getting showers, the winds should die down. They will probably be worst out toward Spanish Springs rather than nearer to Fallon, but they'll still be near 50 mph. The really strong winds will be over the crest and downslope toward Reno and Carson. They'll weaken some by the time they get to you. It'll be like a wetter version of a typical Washoe Zephyr. No snow out there though, but you might get half or three quarters of an inch out of it.
190. rayduray2013

Your clip is of methane being released from a lake bed , and was never in a hydrate form like what is seen on the seafloor.
Thank you everyone!

Sar, we are other side of 50 from,and a bit northeast of NAS. We get whatever winds stronger than in town proper, I think there is a funneling effect from any winds coming out of the south and west as they head for Grimes Point and Sand Mountain. So if we get some 60 mph gusts or more, no surprise.

I'm ready for bed,will check back around 5:30am. Night!
Well good morning from a sunny, cold Spain with the temps at 3/C today so far at 9am.

"Storm of the Day," for the UK is linked below at the encore to this 4th page of the Blog!

Link

Good to briefly note that the methane up and coming problems have been aired in some earlier posts.
Good morning with some "Alexandra"-News; winds are now picking up in Germany as well, and the cold front has already reached my place.





'Weather bomb' storm brings disruption to northern UK
BBC News, 10 December 2014 Last updated at 09:08 GMT
Thousands of Scottish homes are without power as a "weather bomb" storm hits western coastal areas.
Electricity has been cut across the Western Isles, affecting 17,000 homes, and there is other disruption including train and ferry cancellations.
The Met Office has warned parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland to "be prepared" as the rapidly developing storm threatens gusts of up to 80mph.
Conditions off Scotland were "pretty bad" by 06:30 GMT, a lifeboatman said.
Speaking from Barra in the Outer Hebrides, Donald MacLeod, coxswain of the island's lifeboat, said there was rain, hail and "plenty of wind".
'Wild' weather
He said the storm had "grown through the night", adding: "The swell conditions are pretty bad to the west - it's showing about 14m (45ft)."
Mr Macleod said this was "a lot deeper than we normally see" and was "definitely something to be wary of".
BBC weather presenter Carol Kirkwood said it would be a "wild" day from north Wales northwards, while it would be "blustery" further south.
She said the winds would peak in the afternoon and early evening.
Power supplier SSE said the problem affecting the Western Isles was caused by lightning, and homes should be reconnected during the morning.
Western Isles Council said all schools would be closed, along with many other facilities.
In Aberdeenshire, about 20 vehicles are stuck in icy conditions on the B974 Banchory to Fettercairn road.
Ahead of the forecast storms, ferry operator Caledonian MacBrayne warned of severe disruption to its services. ...

Whole article with links to more specific reports see link above.


Click to enlarge. Top gusts today so far (km/h). Source for updates.



BBL, good luck for our friends especially in Ireland, Scotland and Wales today!

BBC: 'Weather Bomb' Live
This page automatically updates

Just an average winter gale, here in southern Scotland, although there was a clap of thunder earlier, which is highly unusual for December. It might have been a lot worse if the centre of the system had been a few hundred miles further south.
Quoting yonzabam:
Just an average winter gale, here in southern Scotland, although there was a clap of thunder earlier, which is highly unusual for December. It might have been a lot worse if the centre of the system had been a few hundred miles further south.

Sounds about right
Quoting 202. yonzabam:

Just an average winter gale, here in southern Scotland, although there was a clap of thunder earlier, which is highly unusual for December. It might have been a lot worse if the centre of the system had been a few hundred miles further south.



Lightning since midnight (BBC).
Quoting sar2401:
It must be a real pretty Christmas card scene up there. It's always nice to look out the big window at a storm like that when you're warm and safe inside. It doesn't look like any icing will last too long or accumulate enough to cause problem. It looks like, at least for southern Vermont, that it will be all rain before the front passes through. Hope your power lasts or at least you have enough wood in the pile to keep warm.


It is beautiful! And miracle of miracles, the power only cut out briefly a few times. We do have plenty of wood for the wood stove as well.

It looks like the icy part of the forecast has not happened so much -- yet. We are still under a winter weather advisory for today. We also didn't get the additional 4-6" we were "promised" at 6 pm last night, we got maybe 10" or 11" total.

I am funny about forecasts: perfectly happy to acknowledge uncertainty in every kind of forecast except snow. For snow, I consider the upper end of the range to be a promise I want kept!!! :) In spite of having to go in to work in all kinds of weather, when we get a good snowstorm I turn into an 8 year old with a snow day.
Quoting Inyo:


Here in the Montpelier area we have had wet snow all day, and about an hour ago got an amazing snow band come through with snowflake clumps, not kidding, two or three inches across. Looked like soap suds falling from the sky, or weird misshapen golf balls. I've seen big snow clumps but that just about took the cake. each one added at least 1/4 an inch of snow when it squished on to the ground. Still we've gotten maybe 4 inches today, no more, since its wet and heavy.

Was looking out for thundersnow and sure enough saw one big flash. Pretty sure it was lightning, the trees aren't loaded down enough to take down powerlines and it's not windy at all. Almost completely calm.

They are saying we may get sleet and rain tomorrow. I'm hoping to keep the snow. I doubt too much will melt as the highs won't get beyond the mid 30s. More light snow later on anyway. What an odd storm!


A friend in Rutland described them as softball sized snow balls. I don't think they quite reached softball sized over here, but they sure were impressive! And we must've gotten 4" in the hour between 5 and 6 last night. Not light fluff either!

I wasn't aware of any thundersnow, but the avalanches coming off our roof may have disguised it.

I am also hoping this snow sticks around. The ski areas have to be happy!
Seems like most the U.S. is stuck in the above average pattern this month of December. Im beating the warm drum, no weather whip lash here :) Just a little chilly here in Tally at 39 degrees, we are about 5 degrees below average.

First El Niño in five years declared by Japan's weather bureau

Agency becomes first major meteorological bureau to declare weather phenomenon which can bring severe droughts to south-east Asia and Australia

Link



Winter Storm Damon round two on December 10, 2014
OK, this has got to be some really wet snow.
Frosty 38 here in Longwood when I left for work at 6:30 this morning. Definitely not the above normal temps many thought we would have this week.

Few degrees cooler than expected here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
244 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS ATLANTIC WATERS...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ATLANTIC BEACHES...

CURRENT...CLEAR SKIES WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MUCH DRIER AIR. WINDS ARE DEEP NORTHWEST AND
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AT THE SURFACE. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS WILL
REALIZE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REALIZE 40S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT UPPER 30S FOR NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
.

However although cold here in FL the temps up north are fairly similar to what we have in FL which is the reason for all the above normal temps up north.

Quoting 208. ColoradoBob1:

First El Nio in five years declared by Japan's weather bureau

Agency becomes first major meteorological bureau to declare weather phenomenon which can bring severe droughts to south-east Asia and Australia

Link


Euro is beginning to trend toward the CFSv2 in regards to the increase in intensity in El-Nino as we move thru 2015.

Big changes in some of the models which some are now beginning to lean toward the CFSv2 and I'm sure people on here will not be happy to here that especially since the 2015 hurricane season is 6 months away already.



Notice the rise in nino 3.4 that begins to occur as we approach May. This is the November update


Here is what the Euro had for the October update
Low of 48 here in Fort Myers. That's 9 degrees below normal. Today's high should also be about 8-9 degrees below normal. We're about 10-15 degrees warmer than our record lows for the date.

Tomorrow morning should be a little cooler. We're still warmer than the low of 47 we had back on November 2nd. Maybe tomorrow we'll be our coolest morning so far this season.

7 day for Fort Myers. Forecast to be back up in the upper 70s early next week.



Oddly enough the latest CFSv2 is very similar to the Euro with its May 2015 forecast then the model heads straight up the ladder as summer 2015 approaches leading to the potential that there could be a strong El-Nino later in 2015 that could derail the 2015 hurricane season.

Quoting 213. Sfloridacat5:

Low of 48 here in Fort Myers. That's 9 degrees below normal. Today's high should also be about 8-9 degrees below normal. We're about 10-15 degrees warmer than our record lows for the date.

Tomorrow morning should be a little cooler. We're still warmer than the low of 47 we had back on November 2nd. Maybe tomorrow we'll be our coolest morning so far this season.

7 day for Fort Myers. Forecast to be back up in the upper 70s early next week.






That's definitely not the warm forecast that they had posted late last week for this week with your highs in the mid 70's and lows in the 50's. So my point was made
I'm going to roll the dice and again and see if I can hit jackpot with next years 2015 hurricane prediction as I did with 2014 back in May. So with El-Nino possibly continuing to build into 2015 I'm going with 8 named storms 5 hurricanes 2 majors. Basically similar to this year.
Good morning from a sunny, 79 feeling like 83, kind of day on the island. Very busy day in St. Thomas with three cruise ships already in and two more to arrive shortly. This repeats again tomorrow. Welcome to high season!

We are under a coastal flood watch and high surf advisory until tomorrow night. Should make things interesting over at Megan's Beach.

As an aside, the Northwest Territory is the only one of the provinces and territories in Canada that doesn't have a weather alert today. Link

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Here's what Scott is jamming to today.

Link
My first forecast is:
10 storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurricanes.
Quoting nonblanche:
Thank you everyone!

Sar, we are other side of 50 from,and a bit northeast of NAS. We get whatever winds stronger than in town proper, I think there is a funneling effect from any winds coming out of the south and west as they head for Grimes Point and Sand Mountain. So if we get some 60 mph gusts or more, no surprise.

I'm ready for bed,will check back around 5:30am. Night!
OK, I know where you're at now. Winds start to crank up Thursday for you with 50 mph sustained and 60-65 mph gusts during the late afternoon and evening. That's compared to 85 mph gusts along the 395/I-50 corridor from Carson to Reno, so it's going to be a rough commute home there. Looks like precip is starting to back off just a bit as the storm comes over the hill but you should still get around half an inch before it's over. The snow level stays above 5000 feet throughout the storm. There's a slight chance for a few flurries early Saturday morning if there's any moisture still available, which looks doubtful to me.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning from a sunny, 79 feeling like 83, kind of day on the island. Very busy day in St. Thomas with three cruise ships already in and two more to arrive shortly. This repeats again tomorrow. Welcome to high season!

We are under a coastal flood watch and high surf advisory until tomorrow night. Should make things interesting over at Megan's Beach.

As an aside, the Northwest Territory is the only one of the provinces and territories in Canada that doesn't have a weather alert today. Link

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Good morning Lindy, from a sunny but chilly Alabama, with a temperature of 39 after an overnight low of 33. That's actually a little warmer than I though because the winds stayed up all night. I'm not seeing any features on the surface map that should be causing your warnings this morning. There is a pretty strong cold front that will be advancing through Hispaniola later today so maybe it's a pressure gradient thing combined with the high tide. The front looks to be strong enough to bring you a cold wave. Your highs tomorrow should be down about 2 degrees from today. :-)
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
First El Niño in five years declared by Japan's weather bureau

Agency becomes first major meteorological bureau to declare weather phenomenon which can bring severe droughts to south-east Asia and Australia

Link
Just another good example of how the JMA continues to act in its own world regardless of what the rest of the world does.

Quoting 188. BayFog:



Close enough. I just went to look it up and learned something new. I-80 does not traverse the actual Donner Pass, but close to it at a higher elevation. That would be 7,240 feet. The old Lincoln Highway (US 40), which has been preserved at Donner, does go through the actual Donner Pass at 7,056 feet. The old highway has a number of sharp hairpin curves and is very narrow, and according to the Wikipedia article, I-80 was shifted a few hundred yards north of it to take advantage of an easier upslope approach on the eastern side. Nevertheless, I-80 is signed "Donner Summit" at its cresting point. Beautiful spot in summer. Went hiking and biking thru some of the old Central Pacific tunnels once.
there is a sign at boreal that says 7227 feet...really pretty up there in the winter
Quoting 222. sar2401:

Just another good example of how the JMA continues to act in its own world regardless of what the rest of the world does.

I'd say they're ahead of the game too. It's pretty clear at this point that El Nino conditions are ongoing, even if the full effects have yet to set in.
Quoting VermontStorms:


It is beautiful! And miracle of miracles, the power only cut out briefly a few times. We do have plenty of wood for the wood stove as well.

It looks like the icy part of the forecast has not happened so much -- yet. We are still under a winter weather advisory for today. We also didn't get the additional 4-6" we were "promised" at 6 pm last night, we got maybe 10" or 11" total.

I am funny about forecasts: perfectly happy to acknowledge uncertainty in every kind of forecast except snow. For snow, I consider the upper end of the range to be a promise I want kept!!! :) In spite of having to go in to work in all kinds of weather, when we get a good snowstorm I turn into an 8 year old with a snow day.
LOL. I can remember a few winters like that in Cleveland. I also remember winters that, if it snowed one more time, I was going to kill myself. :-)
Quoting 222. sar2401:

Just another good example of how the JMA continues to act in its own world regardless of what the rest of the world does.


Breaking News, I have also declared El Nino.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd say they're ahead of the game too. It's pretty clear at this point that El Nino conditions are ongoing, even if the full effects have yet to set in.
They may be but there's a reason why we have a WMO, and the JMA is supposed to act in coordination with other agencies when it comes to things like declaring an El Nino. It's not like this is some emergency declaration that will affect the people of Japan if it's not done.
Quoting Naga5000:


Breaking News, I have also declared El Nino.

OK, now it's official then, since I've seen the sea horse...
Quoting 228. sar2401:

OK, now it's official then, since I've seen the sea horse...


Obviously, get with the times, Sar! In other news, I'm really interested to find out what the mascot is for La Nina...

:)
Quoting WxGuy2014:
Seems like most the U.S. is stuck in the above average pattern this month of December. Im beating the warm drum, no weather whip lash here :) Just a little chilly here in Tally at 39 degrees, we are about 5 degrees below average.

I suspect this is another one of those cases where we see much above normal temperatures for the beginning of the period, falling to below average near the end of the period. The NAO should be at least slightly below normal by Christmas, so that should put an end to any warm weather.
Quoting Naga5000:


Obviously, get with the times, Sar! In other news, I'm really interested to find out what the mascot is for La Nina...

:)
Obviously, the mascot for a La Nina would be a gigantic black crow. :-)
Quoting 221. sar2401:

Good morning Lindy, from a sunny but chilly Alabama, with a temperature of 39 after an overnight low of 33. That's actually a little warmer than I though because the winds stayed up all night. I'm not seeing any features on the surface map that should be causing your warnings this morning. There is a pretty strong cold front that will be advancing through Hispaniola later today so maybe it's a pressure gradient thing combined with the high tide. The front looks to be strong enough to bring you a cold wave. Your highs tomorrow should be down about 2 degrees from today. :-)


I'm laughing over here, Sar. If the temperature gets down below 75, people put coats and sweaters on. I can't imagine what would happen if it ever hit 60. I think they'd go into shock! I should have said that those warnings are in effect later today and into tomorrow.

Quoting 233. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I'm laughing over here, Sar. If the temperature gets down below 75, people put coats and sweaters on. I can't imagine what would happen if it ever hit 60. I think they'd go into shock! I should have said that those warnings are in effect later today and into tomorrow.


My neighbor that just moved here is from Key west Florida and they're still not really use to these kind of temps.When they saw the snow flakes they literally freaked out.I can't wait to see their reactions when it starts to really snow.
Quoting 228. sar2401:

OK, now it's official then, since I've seen the sea horse...
And Christmas is coming , Nino is arriving at is usual time. Warm water down a few hundred meters is making good progress to the west. Water temps just south of the Nino region should warm considerably due to summers approach.

Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


I'm laughing over here, Sar. If the temperature gets down below 75, people put coats and sweaters on. I can't imagine what would happen if it ever hit 60. I think they'd go into shock! I should have said that those warnings are in effect later today and into tomorrow.

It's a very strange experience being in Charlotte Amalie for Christmas. I don't think I've ever seen a place with more Christmas decorations depicting things like snowmen and snow covered Christmas trees. I'd go to town usually about two hours after a lot of sweating and swearing trying to get the toilet on the boat working. Walking around in my usual shorts and t-shirt on December 25 just didn't seem right. I do remember one time, I think it must have been in 1998 or 1999, when it got down to 70, which I think was one degree off the all time low of 69. All the locals were complaining about the cold, and I do remember one guy that had on a jacket. I guess it all depends on what you're used to.
aww...TWC is next to the golden gate bridge. someone should call the yacht club and tell them to bring chris & the crew some coffee & hot chocolate :)
The CFS has a big shift coming..Makes sense really.

Quoting 236. sar2401:

It's a very strange experience being in Charlotte Amalie for Christmas. I don't think I've ever seen a place with more Christmas decorations depicting things like snowmen and snow covered Christmas trees. I'd go to town usually about two hours after a lot of sweating and swearing trying to get the toilet on the boat working. Walking around in my usual shorts and t-shirt on December 25 just didn't seem right. I do remember one time, I think it must have been in 1998 or 1999, when it got down to 70, which I think was one degree off the all time low of 69. All the locals were complaining about the cold, and I do remember one guy that had on a jacket. I guess it all depends on what you're used to.


The irony is that the further north you go into stereotypical Christmas, the fewer decorations there are. Having lived in the cold and snow my whole life I can tell you the reason for this is that stringing lights outside when its 5 degrees out and windy really sucks, and most years enough snow falls that you can't get them off the bushes until everything melts out in late March or early April.
Quoting 177. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Still studying for mine.



Biology doesn't bother me that much though. Chemistry on the other hand...still waiting to see how I did on that final.

My finals are next week. I have two major tests today though.
Physics is so fun, but yet so evil.
Interesting discussion by an actual meteorologist on one of our local stations explaining (correctly IMO) that this upcoming storm in California is NOT what they traditionally refer to as a "pineapple connection/express" since it will not hang up between Hawaii and California, but move through, albeit slowly at first since cyclogenesis will occur on the north coast. He also made mention of the extraordinarily warm SSTs and how they will probably enhance many factors including the deepening of the low, frontal lift as well as available moisture, plus likely post frontal thunder. I'm personally curious to see if the strong winds will mix out the warm SSTs, or if they don't, how deep the warmth goes. 25 foot seas will reach 25 feet down as well, at least.
Quoting 177. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Still studying for mine.



Biology doesn't bother me that much though. Chemistry on the other hand...still waiting to see how I did on that final.


I did great in Biology.
Other hand... I'm doing terrible in Chemistry.
Local NWS office now going wetter with time period after this storm. No sign of any blocking pattern over the West Coast. It looks like the more traditional ridging parked to our east over land rather than over the coastal waters. If true, good news for drought relief, though as the very wet pattern continues, hydro issues start to loom as the wettest time of the year statistically-speaking approaches.
Quoting 224. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'd say they're ahead of the game too. It's pretty clear at this point that El Nino conditions are ongoing, even if the full effects have yet to set in.


I prefer to wait for CPC to make the declaration but they are very close to do that.
Anyone want to come to my blog???? BTW a snowstorm is forecast in my area on monday
Quoting 239. tlawson48:



The irony is that the further north you go into stereotypical Christmas, the fewer decorations there are. Having lived in the cold and snow my whole life I can tell you the reason for this is that stringing lights outside when its 5 degrees out and windy really sucks, and most years enough snow falls that you can't get them off the bushes until everything melts out in late March or early April.


The hazard of Christmas lights has been mentioned ahead of our developing storm with forecast high winds and gusting. Lots of elaborate displays out there. Of course, there will likely also be power outages as wires come down.
Quoting 214. StormTrackerScott:

Oddly enough the latest CFSv2 is very similar to the Euro with its May 2015 forecast then the model heads straight up the ladder as summer 2015 approaches leading to the potential that there could be a strong El-Nino later in 2015 that could derail the 2015 hurricane season.


i hope the super El-Nino come soon my friend!!




200 mph jet approaching the West Coast.
Quoting 240. TylerStanfield:


My finals are next week. I have two major tests today though.
Physics is so fun, but yet so evil.


I saw a Physics testbook in Chemistry and took a look through it.
So much formulas.. ._.
As if Chemistry isn't bad enough...
The two major and unusual events with this Atlantic system are the huge wave heights along the coast, and the presence of thunderstorms within the usual rash of showers around the centre. Lots of thundersnow with elevation, thundersleet at low levels, and far more lightning than Scotland would expect in at least ten Decembers. The winds though are nothing unusual for a winter storm system up north.

The Met Office is now showing a more prolonged low-level snow event here tomorrow evening and overnight, but there still seems to be low confidence in how that next feature is actually going to play out. There is the chance of strong winds on its southern flank over England, which would cause more damage than today.
Quoting 247. hurricanes2018:

i hope the super El-Nino come soon my friend!!


I don"t know about super but a long transition toward El-Nino seems to have been underway for a while now and could peak next Winter.

Given the support from the Euro for the CFSv2 that lends me to believe that this El-Nino is not going to be a short lived event as some have hoped for. You can see what appears to be another warm pool growing near 150E and its this warm pool that the CFSv2 & Euro are latching onto to propel us to atleast moderate El-Nino next summer. So don't be surprised to see another near record breaking warm pool sliding across the Pacific this coming Spring (Feb/March). The warm pool beneath Nino 3.4 (currently) is expected to break up come January only to be replaced by another one.
Quoting 249. Articuno:



I saw a Physics testbook in Chemistry and took a look through it.
So much formulas.. ._.
As if Chemistry isn't bad enough...

Yep. We're testing over Work, Conservation of Energy and Hooke's law. We just finished torque.
x_x


Model indicating undercutting of a weak western ridge with developing southern jet across the CONUS. Sure looks like a Nino pattern, at least in our neighborhood.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
aww...TWC is next to the golden gate bridge. someone should call the yacht club and tell them to bring chris & the crew some coffee & hot chocolate :)


Yeah, they should move him out to the beach so we can see some real action.
Oh, but that would be too far from the airport and the hotel.
This article talks about the major hurricane drought.
Link

From the Portland, Or. NWS office

Record Report

Statement as of 4:05 am PST on December 10, 2014

...Record high temperatures on Tuesday December 9th 2014...

Location 2014 temperature old record (year)

Astoria 61f 61f (1981) McMinnville 62f 59f (1987)

...Record warm low temperatures on Tuesday December 9th 2014...

Location 2014 temperature old record (year)

Astoria 54f 48f (1893) Hillsboro 47f 45f (1999) McMinnville 48f 46f (2004) Portland 46f 46f (1988) Salem 54f 48f (2004) Eugene 54f 51f (1928)
Live shot of the Washington Coast.
Greater Portland Metro Area Severe Watches & Warnings

High Wind Watch

Statement as of 3:03 AM PST on December 10, 2014

...High wind watch remains in effect from late tonight through Thursday evening for the Willamette Valley...lower Columbia River valley and Cascade foothills...

A high wind watch remains in effect from late tonight through Thursday evening for the Willamette Valley...lower Columbia River valley and Cascade foothills.

* Winds: east to southeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. Gusts up to 65 mph possible in the foothills.

* Timing: Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* Locations include: Vancouver...Battle Ground...Camas... Washougal...Eugene...Corvallis...Albany...Salem... McMinnville...Hillsboro...Portland...Oregon City...Gresham... Troutdale...St. Helens...Toutle...Ariel...Cougar...Sandy... Sweet Home...Cottage Grove...Longview...Kelso

* impacts: winds may be capable of producing minor damage to structures...power outages...and travel problems for trucks...trailers and other high profile vehicles.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of 58 mph or stronger may occur.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


I'm laughing over here, Sar. If the temperature gets down below 75, people put coats and sweaters on. I can't imagine what would happen if it ever hit 60. I think they'd go into shock! I should have said that those warnings are in effect later today and into tomorrow.



I had family in St. Croix for years (still have one cousin there), and when we would go down in winter everyone would be HORRIFIED that we were going swimming in that cold weather!
Quoting 249. Articuno:



I saw a Physics testbook in Chemistry and took a look through it.
So much formulas.. ._.
As if Chemistry isn't bad enough...


Physics with calculus shall be next fall for me. But I took AP Physics B in HS...yuck. Passed the test though! Supposedly it's easier with calculus...but you have to learn your calculus first. :)

Today I had my first college final, Calc I. Wasn't too bad, I'm just kicking myself for forgetting really easy stuff that I've known for years (non-calculus stuff)...and I have no clue why I forgot them. :/ Wasn't even stressed. :(
There is that epic break by the bridge (with a epic current to match from what I have heard). Water temps are around 60F. Let's see him pull into a big old brown barrel on live TV.

Quoting 254. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, they should move him out to the beach so we can see some real action.
Oh, but that would be too far from the airport and the hotel.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
There is that epic break by the bridge (with a epic current to match from what I have heard). Water temps are around 60F. Let's see him pull into a big old brown barrel on live TV.



Yeah, I've seen video of people surfing the spot.
TWC guy is real far from the bridge in a pretty protected location.

I want to see the crashing waves. He should set up on the cliffs over looking Mavericks.
Huge rainstorm for California being referred to as an Atmospheric River, very interesting! I hope they get the rain they need without the flooding that is most likely to occur.

Link
Mavericks, California
January 24, 2014

Quoting 261. Astrometeor:



Physics with calculus shall be next fall for me. But I took AP Physics B in HS...yuck. Passed the test though! Supposedly it's easier with calculus...but you have to learn your calculus first. :)

Today I had my first college final, Calc I. Wasn't too bad, I'm just kicking myself for forgetting really easy stuff that I've known for years (non-calculus stuff)...and I have no clue why I forgot them. :/ Wasn't even stressed. :(
Greetings Astro..Loved physics , disliked chemistry , but actually like it now that I am older..I like calculus , but dislike differential equations.
Top reported snowfall totals as of 10 a.m. Wednesday include 15.5 inches in Delanson, New York; 14 inches in Killington, Vermont; 13 inches in Lake Placid, New York; 12 inches in Jamesville, New York; and interestingly 5.5 inches in Florida, Massachusetts. from Winter Storm Damon on december 10 2014
Tuesday's rainfall set daily records in, among other places, New York City (2.54 inches at Central Park); Providence, Rhode Island (2.74 inches); and Boston (2.90 inches).


more rain and snow to come later
California Drought, El Niño, Warm Earth (One more time)
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 9:34 PM CST on December 04, 2014

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These events are called atmospheric rivers, and local to the western part of the U.S., the Pineapple Express (really a nice article in Wikipedia - you might contribute to them while you are there). There are two points to make. The first point is to notice the narrowness of the stream of water vapor that is carried to the continent. The second point is that during an El Niño, atmospheric rivers are more likely to occur. As the February 2014 event shows, El Niño is not required for an atmospheric-river event. Likewise, El Niño does not assure atmospheric rivers. Drought breaking or even significant drought relief would occur, most likely, through a succession of atmospheric river events , which span the coastline from southern California up through the Northwest. Such a succession of events is observed, preferentially, with El Niño. So my analysis remains the same. If I have small farm near Cloverdale, California, and if I were looking to the skies for water, I would be preparing for continued drought. And very thankful for the water received, and thinking of how to use it best.

Returning to atmospheric rivers being narrow, when the stream of wet air gets to the coast two things happen. One, the air lifts and cools and precipitation happens, often a lot of it. Two, the weather system spreads along the mountains, much like a wave breaking on a beach. Therefore the spatial extent is greater than the narrow river of moisture brought to the continent. Still, however, precipitation is brought to the region in localized and discrete events. One event does not cover it all. There needs to be rain in the inland watersheds, and it is a good thing to be stored as snow in the mountains. Not all of the rain ends up being immediately available for drought relief.

Oddly enough the latest CFSv2 is very similar to the Euro with its May 2015 forecast then the model heads straight up the ladder as summer 2015 approaches leading to the potential that there could be a strong El-Nino later in 2015 that could derail the 2015 hurricane season.


ok....i know...once again i'm a broken record.......but grant me this....these can become opportunites where we learn


first notice there is only one model showing this...the cfsv2......noaa has several papers outlining the large error rate of the cfsv2 long range.....and michael ventrice has told us that it's biased against the present kelvin wave



i don't have access to his pay site.....but here is one of his tweets

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice · Nov 15
Wohh nelly! CFSv2 bringing El Nino back into a moderate to high category. Probably biased to downwelling KW surfacing


here's the report from barnston and tippett concerning the bias of the cfsv2...

CFSv2 is shown to have a larger upward trend in Nino3.4 SST than found in the observations, apart from
the 1999 discontinuity. This appears despite the specification of realistic time-evolving CO2 concentrations—
an improvement over CFSv1, which had a fixed and outdated CO2 concentration. This exaggerated positive
trend may be related to a problem in the radiation budget, and indicates a potential area of improvement for
the next improved version of CFS.



Quoting 257. Patrap:


From the Portland, Or. NWS office

Record Report

Statement as of 4:05 am PST on December 10, 2014

...Record high temperatures on Tuesday December 9th 2014...

Location 2014 temperature old record (year)

Astoria 61f 61f (1981) McMinnville 62f 59f (1987)

...Record warm low temperatures on Tuesday December 9th 2014...

Location 2014 temperature old record (year)

Astoria 54f 48f (1893) Hillsboro 47f 45f (1999) McMinnville 48f 46f (2004) Portland 46f 46f (1988) Salem 54f 48f (2004) Eugene 54f 51f (1928)


If this impending storm was a "true" pineapple connection, we'd be hearing instead about ice storms and low level snow in the Pac NW.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Tuesday's rainfall set daily records in, among other places, New York City (2.54 inches at Central Park); Providence, Rhode Island (2.74 inches); and Boston (2.90 inches).


It could have been a major snowstorm had the temperatures been colder.
Most the decent snows have been at the higher elevations.

Quoting 274. ricderr:


Oddly enough the latest CFSv2 is very similar to the Euro with its May 2015 forecast then the model heads straight up the ladder as summer 2015 approaches leading to the potential that there could be a strong El-Nino later in 2015 that could derail the 2015 hurricane season.


ok....i know...once again i'm a broken record.......but grant me this....these can become opportunites where we learn


first notice there is only one model showing this...the cfsv2......noaa has several papers outlining the large error rate of the cfsv2 long range.....and michael ventrice has told us that it's biased against the present kelvin wave



i don't have access to his pay site.....but here is one of his tweets

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice %uFFFD Nov 15
Wohh nelly! CFSv2 bringing El Nino back into a moderate to high category. Probably biased to downwelling KW surfacing


here's the report from barnston and tippett concerning the bias of the cfsv2...

CFSv2 is shown to have a larger upward trend in Nino3.4 SST than found in the observations, apart from
the 1999 discontinuity. This appears despite the specification of realistic time-evolving CO2 concentrations%u2014
an improvement over CFSv1, which had a fixed and outdated CO2 concentration. This exaggerated positive
trend may be related to a problem in the radiation budget, and indicates a potential area of improvement for
the next improved version of CFS.






Latest Euro backs up the CFSv2. Just saying. Euro really changed significantly from its October 1st run. What these models are keying in on is another warm pool and this could be big developing around 140E. Going to be interesting to see how large it becomes once we enter January & February.



Notice the rise in nino 3.4 that begins to occur as we approach May. This is the November update


Here is what the Euro had for the October update


Notice the area around 140E now beginning to spread toward 150E & 160E.
I'd say they're ahead of the game too. It's pretty clear at this point that El Nino conditions are ongoing, even if the full effects have yet to set in.


one of the problems...is that pesky SOI is once again not acting el ninoish....it's 30 day running aveerage right now is only at -4.4.....it should be at least -8.0
Quoting 268. Sfloridacat5:

Mavericks, California
January 24, 2014




Buoy 46012 near Mavericks off Half Moon Bay (24 m SW of San Francisco) currently showing a water temp of 61.3 F, 13.5 foot waves from the west. Those are the normal ambient waves, and they should build rapidly as the winds come up late tonight. The special topography at Mavericks will of course produce much greater waves, but who's going to be riding them during a storm? It's one thing when the waves are generated by distant storms while the local weather is fine, but with a storm on top of them, too dicey for surfers.
Quoting 278. ricderr:

I'd say they're ahead of the game too. It's pretty clear at this point that El Nino conditions are ongoing, even if the full effects have yet to set in.


one of the problems...is that pesky SOI is once again not acting el ninoish....it's 30 day running aveerage right now is only at -4.4.....it should be at least -8.0

It's a North Pacific Nino. Maybe they need to recognize a new sub species of the phenom given the warm water anomaly along the West Coast of North America.
Latest Euro backs up the CFSv2. Just saying. Euro really changed significantly from its October 1st run. What these models are keying in on is another warm pool and this could be big developing around 140E. Going to be interesting to see how large it becomes once we enter January & February.

scott....please show me where i am wrong...but according to experts...the cfsv2 is not showing another warm pool....but instead over reacting to the present kelvin wave as explained by ventrice


and thanx for sharing the euro....however...looking at it's means...it is still showing a weak event...deterioirating in spring...nothing like the cfsv2
Quoting BayFog:


Buoy 46012 near Mavericks off Half Moon Bay (24 m SW of San Francisco) currently showing a water temp of 61.3 F, 13.5 foot waves from the west. Those are the normal ambient waves, and they should build rapidly as the winds come up late tonight. The special topography at Mavericks will of course produce much greater waves, but who's going to be riding them during a storm? It's one thing when the waves are generated by distant storms while the local weather is fine, but with a storm on top of them, too dicey for surfers.


I just thought it would be a good place for TWC to set up their live shots.
But the 1' waves in the Bay where they've setup will have to due for the viewers.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
910 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014

...MAIN PACIFIC LOW AROUND 550 MILES WEST OF SEATTLE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN THIS HOUR WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE NOW DOWN TO 968 MB
(COMPARED TO AROUND 975 MB JUST THREE HOURS AGO). ALONG AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE -- POSSIBLY
DOWN TO 973 MB -- WILL FORM AND HEAD TOWARD THE NORCAL/OREGON
COASTAL AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS SECOND LOW WILL PRODUCE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (UP TO 15 MB FROM SFO TO ACV) HELPING TO
INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME VERY
MOIST (PW VALUES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES) WILL BECOME
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AND TAKE DIRECT AIM ALONG THE COAST.
STEPPING BACK AND LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE JUST AT THE PW IS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT CAN BE TRACED FAR TO THE WEST OF HAWAII WITH ITS
DIRECT AIM RIGHT THROUGH OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...IT SHOWS NO SIGN
OF DISSIPATING AS IT FOLLOWS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. KEEP IN MIND
THAT PW VALUES THIS HIGH ARE AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR DECEMBER
AROUND HERE. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE JUST AS IMPRESSIVE INCLUDING
THE ISENTROPIC FLOW AN AMAZING 60 TO 80 KTS FROM THE SW. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO A BIG 1 DAY RAIN EVENT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THURSDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES
FOR URBAN SPOTS SOUTH OF THE NORTH BAY WITH LOCALLY 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE NORTH BAY PLUS OTHER COASTAL RANGES 4 TO 6
INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES. THE BIG THING
TO REMEMBER IS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL FALL AS THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH SO RAIN RATES WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS
WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS.

FOR THE WINDS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY
BULLISH WITH 925 MB SPEEDS 50 TO 70 KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH. JUST GOING OFF THE RAW ARW SURFACE SPEEDS
SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT FOR MOST SPOTS. WOULD EXPECT URBAN LOCATIONS ON
THURSDAY TO SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS WELL OVER 70
MPH DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FINALLY...WORTH NOTING THAT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN
ADDITION...THE VERY WARM BUOYS TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO CREATE A
MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WOULD HELP WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT.
IF WE END UP GETTING A THUNDERSTORM OVER AN URBAN AREA AS THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH IT WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
HEAVY RAIN AND VERY STRONG WINDS LEADING TO ADDITIONAL HYDRO
PROBLEMS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE VERY CLOSELY WATCHED ON THURSDAY.
It's a North Pacific Nino. Maybe they need to recognize a new sub species of the phenom given the warm water anomaly along the West Coast of North America.


as we were aiting for el nino to form during summer and fall last.....of course it didn't.....a few of us noted how far north the warm anomalies were which was different than past events
.....and den dere is dis,


Quoting 129. JohnLonergan:

Temperature anomalies are warming faster than Earth's average, study finds

It's widely known that the Earth's average temperature has been rising. But new research finds that spatial patterns of extreme temperature anomalies -- readings well above or below the mean -- are warming even faster than the overall average. It may seem counterintuitive that global warming would be accompanied by colder winter weather at some locales. But scientists say the observation aligns with theories about climate change, which hold that amplified warming in the Arctic region produces changes in the jet stream, which can result in extended periods of cold weather at some locations in the mid-northern latitudes.



The middle panel illustrates spatial patterns of temperature anomalies for April 1998. The top panel shows locations that are below the 25th percentile, and the bottom panel shows locations that are above the 75th percentile.
Credit: Image courtesy of Indiana University

Journal Reference:
Scott M. Robeson, Cort J. Willmott, Phil D. Jones. Trends in hemispheric warm and cold anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062323
My forecast to the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, December 10th 2014:
7-9 Storms
3-5 Hurricanes
0-2 Major Hurricanes

My forecast to the 2015 Pacific Hurricane Season, December 10th 2014:
23-26 Storms
14-17 Hurricanes
9-12 Major Hurricanes

My forecast to the 2015 Pacific Typhoon Season, December 10th 2014:
24-28 Storms
13-18 Typhoons
7-11 Major Typhoons
5-8 Super Typhoons
2-4 Category 5 typhoons.
Quoting 281. ricderr:

Latest Euro backs up the CFSv2. Just saying. Euro really changed significantly from its October 1st run. What these models are keying in on is another warm pool and this could be big developing around 140E. Going to be interesting to see how large it becomes once we enter January & February.

scott....please show me where i am wrong...but according to experts...the cfsv2 is not showing another warm pool....but instead over reacting to the present kelvin wave as explained by ventrice


and thanx for sharing the euro....however...looking at it's means...it is still showing a weak event...deterioirating in spring...nothing like the cfsv2


Deteriorating in Spring? I think you mean increasing in Spring.



This model sure does show another warm pool building and it looks like its already in the process around 140E and its spreading east already.

In this image below you can clearly see this warm pool currently beneath 3.4 dissipating only to be replaced by another come Spring.

This is fantastic news!
Deteriorating in Spring? I think you mean increasing in Spring.


you need to look at the enso plume for the means...it's still decreasing
Quoting 286. pablosyn:

My forecast to the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, December 10th 2014:
7-9 Storms
3-5 Hurricanes
0-2 Major Hurricanes

My forecast to the 2015 Pacific Hurricane Season, December 10th 2014:
23-26 Storms
14-17 Hurricanes
9-12 Major Hurricanes

My forecast to the 2015 Pacific Typhoon Season, December 10th 2014:
24-28 Storms
13-18 Typhoons
7-11 Major Typhoons
5-8 Super Typhoons
2-4 Category 5 typhoons.


I agree. I think the E-Pac goes into overdrive again next year.
Christmas week looks very active across the South.

Snow still seems really wet, but look at how high wind gusts are now. Sustained 62, Gusts to 99!
Quoting 289. ricderr:

Deteriorating in Spring? I think you mean increasing in Spring.


you need to look at the enso plume for the means...it's still decreasing


The mean is increasing at the end of its run not decreasing.



This was the mean back on October 1st. Big change in one month on the Euro.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Christmas week looks very active across the South.


Could this be another Christmas outbreak, like the year of the Christmas 2012 blizzard?
Quoting 294. 62901IL:


Could this be another Christmas outbreak, like the year of the Christmas 2012 blizzard?


Could be some severe weather ongoing around 12/20 but too warm for snow up by you just a steady rain event for you guys.
Quoting 260. VermontStorms:



I had family in St. Croix for years (still have one cousin there), and when we would go down in winter everyone would be HORRIFIED that we were going swimming in that cold weather!


My condolences. Of all the Caribbean islands I've ever been to, St. Croix was easily the most depressed and filthy. I remember talking to the residents, asking them why their island was in such a depressing state of comparative disrepair, and nearly every person blamed Hurricane Hugo in 1989 for their troubles. My initial reaction was of sympathy, but it slowly turned to disgust as I traveled about the island. Folks sitting out on porches in the middle of a weekday, garbage strewn across their lawns, staring unhappily out into space with a beer in one hand and a look that was a mixure of pain, depression, and apathy.

To me, St. Croix stands out in stark contrast - exactly how and how not to respond to utterly devastating weather events. Hugo was 25 years ago, after all.
Accidental double post
Quoting 291. StormTrackerScott:

Christmas week looks very active across the South.




My dartboard says way too early to forecast Christmas week.
Quoting 298. luvtogolf:



My dartboard says way too early to forecast Christmas week.


Most operational ensembles are showing that week active across the south as the Midwest ridge breaks down and troughing from out west moves east.
Quoting 247. hurricanes2018:

i hope the super El-Nino come soon my friend!!


You would think that after a year of predicting El Nino (and Super El Nino) that one would not put so much trust in what models say and pay attention to what the experts say.
Quoting 299. StormTrackerScott:



Most operational ensembles are showing that week active across the south as the Midwest ridge breaks down and troughing from out west moves east.


Well Jeff, we'll just have to wait and see if you are right or wrong again:)
Quoting 300. luvtogolf:



You would think that after a year of predicting El Nino (and Super El Nino) that one would not put so much trust in what models say and pay attention to what the experts say.


Some of the same expects expected "Super" El-Nino. Big bust from many around the meteorological community on this year's El-Nino not just me as many well known scientist expected we would be in a monster El-Nino by now.

Bad day to be climbing Mount Hood.

Today Snow. High near 31. Windy, with a south southwest wind 65 to 70 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Mount Rainier would be your choice for being stuck in the snow.

Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Windy, with a south wind 37 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 34 mph decreasing to 8 to 18 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Thursday Snow. High near 21. Windy, with a southeast wind 45 to 55 mph decreasing to 22 to 32 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 9. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Good afternoon/evening with some video impressions from "weather bomb" Alexandra in Ireland and Scotland:


10.12.2014: The biggest Atlantic storm of 2014 arrives in Port Bay south west Donegal on 10th December. Average wave height of over 15 meters. (50 foot) The end of the clip shows a wave crashing at over 100 meters on the seaward face of Tormore Island, Ireland's highest sea stack.

Fresh BBC video reports:

'Weather bomb' storms hit across northern UK
10 December 2014 Last updated at 16:40 GMT
Strong winds and huge waves are affecting north-western parts of the UK as a forecast "weather bomb" arrives.
Power supplies and travel have already been disrupted with wind speeds expected to peak on Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
Laura Bicker in Ardrossan, Scotland, Chris Buckler in Portstewart, Northern Ireland and Chris Eakin in Blackpool look at how the "weather bomb" is affecting their areas.


Huge waves crash on Orkney Islands
BBC video, 5 hours ago:




The UK's winter 'weather bomb' in maps
By Doug Kennedy BBC Scotland News, 10 December 2014 Last updated at 12:41 GMT

Just as an eye candy: Airmass loop of Alexandra this morning until now.

Source of the gifs: http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/satel ite/masas
Quoting 302. StormTrackerScott:



Some of the same expects expected "Super" El-Nino. Big bust from many around the meteorological community on this year's El-Nino not just me as many well known scientist expected we would be in a monster El-Nino by now.




Who said I was talking about you?
Power Outage in Vermont, USA on Wednesday, 10 December, 2014 at 04:36 (04:36 AM) UTC.
Description
There were about 27,000 power outages across Vermont as heavy wet snow continued to fall Tuesday. Dorothy Schnure, a spokesperson for Green Mountain Power, say they've already restored power to 13,000 customer, but she expects some customers will have multi-day outages. She expects crews will be out fixing the problems well into Friday. The Vermont State Police said multiple tractor-trailers were stuck on Route 9 between Bennington and Wilmington, prompting the Transportation Agency to close the section of road. The National Weather Service in Burlington is predicting snow to fall from midday Tuesday through most of Wednesday, with 6 to 12 inches expected in northern and central Vermont. The National Weather Service in Burlington is predicting snow to fall through most of Wednesday, with 6 to 12 inches expected in northern and central Vermont.
Been reading some of the forecasts from the NWS offices in California. Crazy couple of days coming up. Very beneficial rains coming but unfortunately they'll see flooding and mudslides.
This was the mean back on October 1st. Big change in one month on the Euro.


scott.....by the graph shown...it would appear that the ensemble means anomaly ends up at about an increase of 0.025 celsius
Some really good surf today at Cocoa Beach. Lots of guys out at the pier.
Link
There was a few new invests yesterday but they waned as the extreme storms got going. There is one in Argentina as well.
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:


My condolences. Of all the Caribbean islands I've ever been to, St. Croix was easily the most depressed and filthy. I remember talking to the residents, asking them why their island was in such a depressing state of comparative disrepair, and nearly every person blamed Hurricane Hugo in 1989 for their troubles. My initial reaction was of sympathy, but it slowly turned to disgust as I traveled about the island. Folks sitting out on porches in the middle of a weekday, garbage strewn across their lawns, staring unhappily out into space with a beer in one hand and a look that was a mixure of pain, depression, and apathy.

To me, St. Croix stands out in stark contrast - exactly how and how not to respond to utterly devastating weather events. Hugo was 25 years ago, after all.
It's true that a third of the population of St. Croix lives below the poverty line. But it's not fair to blame the islanders. The truth is that most of those on the island living in poverty aren't unemployed because they don't feel like working; they're unemployed because there simply aren't enough jobs to go around. As with much of the Caribbean, the harsh and long-lived influences of colonialism, territorialism, corruption, exploitation, slavery, and broken promises have conspired to make it so.
Quoting 294. 62901IL:


Could this be another Christmas outbreak, like the year of the Christmas 2012 blizzard?


A little too early to say but it does look like the 2012 Christmas tornado outbreak/blizzard.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's true that a third of the population of St. Croix lives below the poverty line. But it's not fair to blame the islanders. The truth is that most of those on the island living in poverty aren't unemployed because they don't feel like working; they're unemployed because there simply aren't enough jobs to go around. As with much of the Caribbean, the harsh and long-lived influences of colonialism, territorialism, corruption, exploitation, slavery, and broken promises have conspired to make it so.


Hess refinery closing was a HUGE blow to the economy.
Quoting 236. sar2401:

It's a very strange experience being in Charlotte Amalie for Christmas. I don't think I've ever seen a place with more Christmas decorations depicting things like snowmen and snow covered Christmas trees. I'd go to town usually about two hours after a lot of sweating and swearing trying to get the toilet on the boat working. Walking around in my usual shorts and t-shirt on December 25 just didn't seem right. I do remember one time, I think it must have been in 1998 or 1999, when it got down to 70, which I think was one degree off the all time low of 69. All the locals were complaining about the cold, and I do remember one guy that had on a jacket. I guess it all depends on what you're used to.


Sorry for the late reply. I'm working off two computers today and just got back to this desk. To be honest with you, Christmas on the island is nothing like it was even 10 years ago. People can't afford electricity on a good day, let alone paying WAPA extra money for a pretty Christmas. I know we don't string lights. That company gets more than its fair share of my money!
Worked with a guy last year that was on St.Croix for Hugo. He said it was leveled by the storm. He left because it crushed the island. He was a US citizen, so he had options.

I think Hugo was a Cat 4 or 5 when it struck St. Croix.

Quoting 296. LongIslandBeaches:



My condolences. Of all the Caribbean islands I've ever been to, St. Croix was easily the most depressed and filthy. I remember talking to the residents, asking them why their island was in such a depressing state of comparative disrepair, and nearly every person blamed Hurricane Hugo in 1989 for their troubles. My initial reaction was of sympathy, but it slowly turned to disgust as I traveled about the island. Folks sitting out on porches in the middle of a weekday, garbage strewn across their lawns, staring unhappily out into space with a beer in one hand and a look that was a mixure of pain, depression, and apathy.

To me, St. Croix stands out in stark contrast - exactly how and how not to respond to utterly devastating weather events. Hugo was 25 years ago, after all.

Rain starts along the coasts of northern California.
I'll be at TPC Sawgrass this weekend. Dye and Stadium. Weather is looking good. Chilly early in the morning then warming. As long as the wind doesn't blow it should be great weather.
Quoting 296. LongIslandBeaches:



My condolences. Of all the Caribbean islands I've ever been to, St. Croix was easily the most depressed and filthy. I remember talking to the residents, asking them why their island was in such a depressing state of comparative disrepair, and nearly every person blamed Hurricane Hugo in 1989 for their troubles. My initial reaction was of sympathy, but it slowly turned to disgust as I traveled about the island. Folks sitting out on porches in the middle of a weekday, garbage strewn across their lawns, staring unhappily out into space with a beer in one hand and a look that was a mixure of pain, depression, and apathy.

To me, St. Croix stands out in stark contrast - exactly how and how not to respond to utterly devastating weather events. Hugo was 25 years ago, after all.


Interestingly enough, there is an article in one of the local papers today that talks a lot about what has happened in St. Croix over the last year or so with the closing of Hovensa (over 2,200 affected). Link
Quoting 316. HaoleboySurfEC:

Worked with a guy last year that was on St.Croix for Hugo. He said it was leveled by the storm. He left because it crushed the island. He was a US citizen, so he had options.

I think Hugo was a Cat 4 or 5 when it struck St. Croix.




If anyone can find this online, "Hurricane Hugo: The Longest Night", it's an incredible documentary that a local reporter did. Quite the eye opener, at least from my perspective, as I've never experienced something like that.
Quoting 308. ricderr:

This was the mean back on October 1st. Big change in one month on the Euro.


scott.....by the graph shown...it would appear that the ensemble means anomaly ends up at about an increase of 0.025 celsius


Exactly an increase not decrease as you stated.
Huntington Beach, California
Surf is just too fun looking. It almost drives me crazy that I'm not there.
Link


cloudy weather in new haven light snow in new york city at 1:45pm on December 10, 2014
Quoting 322. Sfloridacat5:

Huntington Beach, California
Surf is just too fun looking. It almost drives me crazy that I'm not there.
Link


Those are some nice looking breakers. I never got into surfing. When I was younger, I loved to go over to the Daytona area and body surf.
New York JFK, NY
2:33 PM EST on December 10, 2014 (GMT -0500) Howard Beach | Change Station
Elev 7 ft 40.66 °N, 73.84 °W | Updated 14 sec ago

Light Snow
36.3 °F
Some of the New England and northeast breaks will be incredible in the next 24-48 hours. Some of those point breaks are truly remarkable. Being a responsible adult has its drawbacks ;-)

Tomorrow could be a snowboard in the morning/surf in the afternoon day in Maine.



Quoting 322. Sfloridacat5:

Huntington Beach, California
Surf is just too fun looking. It almost drives me crazy that I'm not there.
Link


rain going back to all snow in the northeast by tonight
North side of Huntington Beach Pier
Really nice swell coming in.

Some fresh news from our European space adventure:

Rosetta results: Comets 'did not bring water to Earth'
By Rebecca Morelle, Science Correspondent, BBC News, 10 December 2014 Last updated at 19:05 GMT

----------------------------

And here is a saved part of the latest run of ECMWF ("Euro") 12z concerning winds at 925hPa (near surface) and showing the development of a stormy secondary low (called "quickrunner" in German; they are fast, possibly very violent and hard to predict) on Thursday on the southern side of large mother low "Alexandra", hitting London and afterwards the neighbours of the English Channel including northern Germany on Friday:


Source

Have a nice afternoon, evening and night, everybody; I'm tired ...

Though tired, one edit: Name of Alexandra's baby is Billie :-)

330. flsky
I love all the driftwood up there.
Quoting 258. Sfloridacat5:

Live shot of the Washington Coast.

331. flsky
Looks like the north side.
Quoting 328. Sfloridacat5:

South side of Huntington Beach Pier
Really nice swell coming in.


Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Some of the New England and northeast breaks will be incredible in the next 24-48 hours. Some of those point breaks are truly remarkable. Being a responsible adult has its drawbacks ;-)

Tomorrow could be a snowboard in the morning/surf in the afternoon day in Maine.





A lot of the guys were wearing Spring suits at Cocoa Beach. With air temperatures and water temperatures in the 60s, I'd probably wear a full suit and be toasty warm.
That's one advantage to Florida surf. I like being warm when I surf.

I've surfed California in December before and I was pretty cold with a 3mm full suit. Water temps were in the upper 50s.

I'm used to warm water, so I don't think I could handle it up north.
Exactly an increase not decrease as you stated.


scott...when you look at the model that the CPC uses and issues in their advisories...it decreases......
Quoting flsky:
Looks like the north side.


The Huntington Beach shot is definitely the north side of the pier.
I was thinking of the Cocoa Beach cam I was watching at the same time.
ECMWF wants to form a system across the south on the 20th of December. The big question is whether there will be enough cold air available for a Winter Storm to move up the Eastcoast.
Quoting 296. LongIslandBeaches:



My condolences. Of all the Caribbean islands I've ever been to, St. Croix was easily the most depressed and filthy. I remember talking to the residents, asking them why their island was in such a depressing state of comparative disrepair, and nearly every person blamed Hurricane Hugo in 1989 for their troubles. My initial reaction was of sympathy, but it slowly turned to disgust as I traveled about the island. Folks sitting out on porches in the middle of a weekday, garbage strewn across their lawns, staring unhappily out into space with a beer in one hand and a look that was a mixure of pain, depression, and apathy.

To me, St. Croix stands out in stark contrast - exactly how and how not to respond to utterly devastating weather events. Hugo was 25 years ago, after all.


So what is NY's excuse?

Connie Island beach, Aug 2014

Quoting ricderr:
Exactly an increase not decrease as you stated.


scott...when you look at the model that the CPC uses and issues in their advisories...it decreases......


I have a headache.....
I have a headache.....


it's like banging your head against the wall.....facts are facts.....i can only try......oh well....we're setting up another office......has kept me away for a few days....hopefully middle of next week i will be back to normal
Quoting 335. Sfloridacat5:

ECMWF wants to form a system across the south on the 20th of December. The big question is whether there will be enough cold air available for a Winter Storm to move up the Eastcoast.


Ten days out, cold air is Definately not the question. Ten days out, the question is how far out in fantasy land the model is
Quoting 335. Sfloridacat5:

ECMWF wants to form a system across the south on the 20th of December. The big question is whether there will be enough cold air available for a Winter Storm to move up the Eastcoast.



Too warm of an airmass out in front however severe weather as I stated earlier could be possible around the 20th of December infact could be another system even behind that one near Christmas.
342. 882MB
Very huge swells coming into the northern coast of PR and the British virgin islands. Coastal flood warning, and high surf warning in effect until tomorrow afternoon, with waves 9 to 11 feet, and breaking waves of 17 to 20 feet.
Quoting 329. barbamz:

Some fresh news from our European space adventure:

Rosetta results: Comets 'did not bring water to Earth'
By Rebecca Morelle, Science Correspondent, BBC News, 10 December 2014 Last updated at 19:05 GMT

----------------------------

And here is a saved part of the latest run of ECMWF ("Euro") 12z concerning winds at 925hPa (near surface) and showing the development of a stormy secondary low (called "quickrunner" in German; they are fast, possibly very violent and hard to predict) on Thursday on the southern side of large mother low "Alexandra", hitting London and afterwards the neighbours of the English Channel including northern Germany on Friday:


Source

Have a nice afternoon, evening and night, everybody; I'm tired ...


Another Schnellläufer?? When will it end? :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Too warm of an airmass out in front however severe weather as I stated earlier could be possible around the 20th of December infact could be another system even behind that one near Christmas.


Here's the same system on December 21st using the GFS.
345. txjac
Quoting 341. TropicalAnalystwx13:





Looks like those that need rain will be getting it ...thats a good thing
Except for southern Florida
Quoting txjac:


Looks like those that need rain will be getting it ...thats a good thing
Except for southern Florida


.01" for December here in Fort Myers with no rain in our 7 day forecast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm glad Texas is getting back to normal totals.
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Significant snowfall for parts of Southern Ontario.

A low pressure system near Cape Cod will slowly track north to New England Thursday. An area of snow associated with this low is already affecting Eastern Ontario and is forecast to continue spreading north and west today. The snow is forecast to begin over Central Ontario and the Golden Horseshoe this evening and will then move westward across the Kitchener - Waterloo - Guelph - Brantford areas overnight and further into Southwestern Ontario by early Thursday morning.

General snowfall totals are expected to approach 10 cm over most of the area. However, higher totals of near 15 cm will be likely along a swath extending from Kingston to the National Capital Region, which borders regions under the snowfall warning. Amounts of 10 to 15 cm will also be possible over the Niagara Peninsula as well as near and northeast of Georgian Bay. Snowfall warnings may be required for some of the regions near Georgian Bay.

In addition, gusty northerly winds accompanying the system could reduce visibilities locally at times in snow and blowing snow.

The snow is forecast to taper off overnight for Eastern Ontario, Thursday morning for the Golden Horseshoe and later Thursday or Thursday night for central and Southwestern Ontario.

Motorists should be prepared for a return to winter driving conditions as the snow moves in. Untreated roads may become snow covered and slippery, and visibility may be reduced at times in areas of snow and local blowing snow.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
Wow. The changes WU has made to the radar section are nothing short of awful. Must have been TWC's idea.


Absolutely perfect 7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area.


Wow N and Cen California are going to get drilled.
Anomaly map



Quoting 316. HaoleboySurfEC:

Worked with a guy last year that was on St.Croix for Hugo. He said it was leveled by the storm. He left because it crushed the island. He was a US citizen, so he had options.

I think Hugo was a Cat 4 or 5 when it struck St. Croix.




Having spent my high school years in St Croix in the mid 70's I can tell you that it was pretty depressed back then too.
Few native islanders worked at Hess or Martin Marietta as most of their employees were from the mainland and lived at "Hess Camp". Also, all born in St Croix(Cruzans) are US citizens by birth as it is a US Territory.

Edit: It also wasn't much of a tourist destination then. It was considered the working class island.
Was talking to a co-worker during lunch today who used to live in Upstate NY before moving down to Florida. He was also commenting on the "deceptive" snow and black ice issues (and Lake effect blowing over into parts of the NE) that he does not miss. Wet snow for a bit, then it warms over a bit during the day, temps drop again overnight freezing the thin layer on top, you wake up in the am thinking you are just driving on fresh snow, and then you hit the ice layer just underneath and start to slip and slide if you don't have chains or are used to driving in these conditions (if your have to drive at all).................................I am worried about what the next three months will bring up North at this rate.



Click The Image - "Make It So!" :)



I enjoy working with people. I have a stimulating relationship with the Blog. My mission responsibilities range over the entire operation of the ship so I am constantly occupied. I am putting myself to the fullest possible use which is all, I think, that any conscious entity can ever hope to do.
Quoting 317. barbamz:


Rain starts along the coasts of northern California.


Heavy rain and gusts to 53 at Crescent City. And the new low on the front hasn't even formed yet. It'll be right offshore there when it does, assuming the forecasters have nailed it.

Balmy and calm in the SF Bay Area right now, although cloudy. High clouds look highly disturbed, no doubt from the increasing upper winds.
CAL FIRE ‏@CAL_FIRE
A @CAL_FIRE Inmate Hand Crew fills sandbags ahead of the major winter storm. Are you prepared? Link

Quoting tampabaymatt:


Absolutely perfect 7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area.


You think so? My friends in Melbourne detest lows in the 40s.
Tonight's lows based on the 18Z GFS
Quoting 352. tampabaymatt:


Wow N and Cen California are going to get drilled.


Well, Central CA resorvoirs need it the most, so it's definitely good for them to get a good soaking.
For the third straight year, there has been a record low number of tornadoes across the United States.

It's interesting to see the variability during the past decade.

Quoting 362. wxgeek723:



You think so? My friends in Melbourne detest lows in the 40s.


You can add an orchid grower in Cape Coral (to the list of those detesting 40s and below)!
Quoting 367. OrchidGrower:



You can add an orchid grower in Cape Coral (to the list of those detesting 40s and below)!


I've been know to kill an orchid in less than two days, regardless of temperature.
Quoting 364. Sfloridacat5:

Tonight's lows based on the 18Z GFS

gfs is misleading on temps inland and north of tampa..in the low to mid 30's with patchy frost per nws
Quoting 368. Grothar:



I've been know to kill an orchid in less than two days, regardless of temperature.


But then again, you are a legendary person!
Quoting 352. tampabaymatt:



Wow N and Cen California are going to get drilled.


Bring it on! Just love the Pineapple Express
Quoting 312. Neapolitan:

It's true that a third of the population of St. Croix lives below the poverty line. But it's not fair to blame the islanders. The truth is that most of those on the island living in poverty aren't unemployed because they don't feel like working; they're unemployed because there simply aren't enough jobs to go around. As with much of the Caribbean, the harsh and long-lived influences of colonialism, territorialism, corruption, exploitation, slavery, and broken promises have conspired to make it so.

Whilst I must agree with Neapolitan on what he has to say above, I must also interject that here in Spain where I live and sometimes work. The country was once a massive colonial power with most of South America, along with parts of the Caribbean, Africa and other parts of the world including at one point quite a lot of North America. under its control.
Vast wealth was extracted and then Spain contracted into its now national boundaries mostly.
The unemployment is about 25% nationally with 55% in the southern part of Andalucía not uncommon.
Basically about 5 million nationally registered out of work but really a lot more than that.
In my village over 50 % of 25 year olds have never had a job.

Now we hear about constant corruption and fraud from the street sweepers to the royal family.
Its probably not much different from a lot of depressed places if you are a national citizen with little way out of the systems created by the forebears.
The much anticipated warm-up will be getting underway across the north-central US over the next couple days. It looks to stay that way, pretty much unrelenting, through at least Christmas. It will spread east and south too, though those areas will not see the same level of temperature anomalies, 10-20F above normal in spots for the central and northern Plains. Even the West Coast looks a little warmer than normal, along with a continued risk of above normal precipitation.



There will be storm threats for central and eastern areas sprinkled in, but with the lack of cold air snow will be limited, and instead a couple late season severe weather events will be possible, as has been mentioned. Still a good chance at some colder air heading into January, but it may not be the big Arctic blast that has been hyped up by some. More of a stair-stepping towards a colder pattern as the warmth is removed and cold tries to build back in up north in Canada.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
228 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

...AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

.AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES SET THE STAGE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.

FLZ043-139-142-148-239-242-248-249-110730-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FR.Y.0009.141211T0600Z-141211T1300Z/
SUMTER-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-
INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...CEDAR KEY...
YANKEETOWN...CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...HERNANDO BEACH...
BAYPORT...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTON...INVER NESS...
BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS
228 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM
EST THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...31 TO 37 DEGREES

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED AND MAY DAMAGE OR KILL
COLD SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
Quoting 362. wxgeek723:



You think so? My friends in Melbourne detest lows in the 40s.
My breadfruit tree on the space coast is going to be very unhappy. It barely survived last winter even though I created a special microclimate for it surrounded in an inside corner of my house by 8-foot high trellis with a warm water drip for its roots. The cold winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 that wiped out about 80% of the coconut trees in my neighborhood also decimated the breadfruit trees in the FL Keys, so I know growing it is just a conceit. I will enjoy it while it lasts.
Within the past hour, clouds have quickly lowered and the wind has ramped up here in the SF Bay Area. Barometers at the SF and Bodega buoys are indicating rapid pressure falls.
Quoting LargoFl:
gfs is misleading on temps inland and north of tampa..in the low to mid 30's with patchy frost per nws


You need a more detailed map to show everything. And it's still not going to show all the usual cold spots.
Cold air will pool up in lower elevation inland locations.
Our low was 48 last night, but colder inland locations got down to 41. Clear skies and light winds and you'll see even wider gaps in temperatures.

Does a little better job of forecasting the colder spots. It's still not real localized.
GEOS-5 for tomorrow.

Here's what the NWS thinks west central Fl.

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Having spent my high school years in St Croix in the mid 70's I can tell you that it was pretty depressed back then too.
Few native islanders worked at Hess or Martin Marietta as most of their employees were from the mainland and lived at "Hess Camp". Also, all born in St Croix(Cruzans) are US citizens by birth as it is a US Territory.

Edit: It also wasn't much of a tourist destination then. It was considered the working class island.


What school did you go to?

Even though there were relatively more Statesiders employed at Hess, there were lots of Cruzans, too. And one of my friends who lost her job due to Hess's closing was a teacher in one of the private schools, due to decreasing enrollment. There have been a lot of cascading effects.

Meanwhile, in weather news, we are back to snow, and for a brief while it was snowing golf-ball sized clumps. Now it is pretty fine. Another couple inches so far. Power has blinked off a few times, and number of outages is increasing again on the map.


Canada geese take flight from a snow-covered corn lot in light rain on Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2014, in Castleton, N.Y



Snow is seen in Syracuse, N.Y., Dec. 10, 2014
Driving through Melbourne this afternoon, noting pedestrian attire.. I saw one person in a coat and gloves, another in a Parka and gloves, one long sleeves and jeans, one T-shirt and capri and one T-shirt in shorts with flip-flops.

The pony that can't stand cold already has a light sheet on.

Guygee~ Thanks for reminding me to tend the more sensitive plants. It's dropping to ~40-41ºF here tonight.
Quoting 382. hurricanes2018:

Canada geese take flight from a snow-covered corn lot in light rain on Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2014, in Castleton, N.Y

There was a line of snowbirds flying in tonight, both in the sky and on the road.

GEOS-5 early Friday



Snow, seen in the early morning hours of Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2014, in Syracuse, New York.
Quoting 375. guygee:

My breadfruit tree on the space coast is going to be very unhappy. It barely survived last winter even though I created a special microclimate for it surrounded in an inside corner of my house by 8-foot high trellis with a warm water drip for its roots. The cold winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 that wiped out about 80% of the coconut trees in my neighborhood also decimated the breadfruit trees in the FL Keys, so I know growing it is just a conceit. I will enjoy it while it lasts.


Good luck, Guygee! I almost picked up a breadfruit tree last weekend at a local nursery, but I could see burns on them from the upper-40s lows that we've already had -- so I passed. But I have orchids budding and blooming in my trees outside, tender Verschaffeltia Splendida palms in the ground, and a recently planted cocoa tree to nurse through this winter.

It looks like I will have my hands full....
Quoting 376. BayFog:

Within the past hour, clouds have quickly lowered and the wind has ramped up here in the SF Bay Area. Barometers at the SF and Bodega buoys are indicating rapid pressure falls.


Ahh, think we finally got a video of the snow clumps in VT. Is this it? or bigger? Looks fun to play in.





Pedestrians walk in Times Square in Manhattan during Winter Storm Damon on Dec. 9, 2014

XX/XX/XX
Quoting Skyepony:
Ahh, think we finally got a video of the snow clumps in VT. Is this it? or bigger? Looks fun to play in.




That is what it looked like for a bit this afternoon, yesterday was REALLY big clumps. It really is beautiful (once one is not driving)
Quoting 389. Skyepony:

Ahh, think we finally got a video of the snow clumps in VT. Is this it? or bigger? Looks fun to play in.



gonna be a interesting backdoor storm comes from east moving west
wind gusts may reach or exceed 100 kmh se of the storm track for that west coast event
very near se center of low over open water gusts may reach 120kmh
Quoting 377. Sfloridacat5:



You need a more detailed map to show everything. And it's still not going to show all the usual cold spots.
Cold air will pool up in lower elevation inland locations.
Our low was 48 last night, but colder inland locations got down to 41. Clear skies and light winds and you'll see even wider gaps in temperatures.

Does a little better job of forecasting the colder spots. It's still not real localized.


You can certainly see the Orlando area heat island, though I feel the inclusion of the rural areas between Orlando and the E Coast is overdone. Locations like the small town of Christmas, for example. The area should be a bullseye over the Orlando area, not open all the way to the coast, in other words.
Quoting 391. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


XX/XX/XX



DOOM.....
Quoting 344. Sfloridacat5:



Here's the same system on December 21st using the GFS.

It's starting to feel a lot like Christmas Syke!.That's still what? 10 days from now?.lol.But in all seriousness I hope nothing happens in that time frame.I have things to do..
Quoting 387. OrchidGrower:



Good luck, Guygee! I almost picked up a breadfruit tree last weekend at a local nursery, but I could see burns on them from the upper-40s lows that we've already had -- so I passed. But I have orchids budding and blooming in my trees outside, tender Verschaffeltia Splendida palms in the ground, and a recently planted cocoa tree to nurse through this winter.

It looks like I will have my hands full....
Wow, I had to look up Verschaffeltia splendida in Palmpedia, very unusual and beautiful stilted palms endemic to the Seychelles. I hope they make it! My breadfruit tree lost most of its leaves last winter, but came back beautifully. I also have three species of Canarium nut trees (at least for now) and two breadnut trees (Brosimum alicastrum). I am less worried about the latter species, they came through last winter with very little damage. Call me an optimist. I love the story of the late archeologist Dennis Pulestrom and his pioneering theory of how the Mayans were actually a forest-based civilization that relied on the breadnut tree even more than maize. I admit orchids are completely outside of my realm of knowledge, but good luck to you as well, please keep us updated.
Quoting 403. washingtonian115:

It's starting to feel a lot like Christmas Syke!.That's still what? 10 days from now?.lol.But in all seriousness I hope nothing happens in that time frame.I have things to do..

The CMC/GFS operational runs and ensembles are in pretty good agreement for a potent storm system tracking across the South Plains, Southeast, and then into the Northeast around Christmas. Obviously with this being 10 days out, confidence on anything is very low. Verbatim, the models would support a snow/ice threat across interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic (cold air damming-favored areas). We'll see.
Quoting 402. PedleyCA:



DOOM.....


Was just out on Bodega Head on the Sonoma Coast.

Huge swell, with rain and wind picking up.
It feels like a normal NorCal winter coming on.
Light west wind and severe clear today. 37/59
Quoting 405. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The CMC/GFS operational runs and ensembles are in pretty good agreement for a potent storm system tracking across the South Plains, Southeast, and then into the Northeast around Christmas. Obviously with this being 10 day, confidence on anything is very low. Verbatim, the models would support a snow/ice threat across interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic (cold air damming-favored areas). We'll see.

All I wanna do is not have a hectic holiday crises xD.
Another "disaster movie" (and I'm not only calling it that because it is a disaster flick.It literally looks like it'll be a disaster.).But here's the trailer to San Andreas coming in 2015.Watch out people on the west coast!.
Link
East Haven, Connecticut at 8:35 PM EST on December 10, 2014
37 °F
light snow mix with rain


doom of snow in the northeast!!!
If they're going to continue feeding storms like the two expected in the next 7 days, I have absolutely no problem with these insane warm anomalies off our coast.
Quoting 384. Skyepony:

Driving through Melbourne this afternoon, noting pedestrian attire.. I saw one person in a coat and gloves, another in a Parka and gloves, one long sleeves and jeans, one T-shirt and capri and one T-shirt in shorts with flip-flops.

The pony that can't stand cold already has a light sheet on.

Guygee~ Thanks for reminding me to tend the more sensitive plants. It's dropping to ~40-41%uFFFDF here tonight.
You are welcome! It is the persistence of the cool weather that worries me the most. Since I have to live in Orlando during the weekdays, I actually just turned on a pump this weekend and left water flowing over the breadfruit tree roots, that are also partly sheltered by bananas and some water-loving tea-leaf trees that evolved growing by lakes and rivers in Malaysia. They all like "wet feet". The water comes from a 350-foot deep well and helps modify the temperature and keeps the humidity higher. It is even worse in those cold pockets inland. Better to take precautions than hoping for good luck.


light snow at my house new haven


my x-mas lights are on tonight


Quoting 405. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The CMC/GFS operational runs and ensembles are in pretty good agreement for a potent storm system tracking across the South Plains, Southeast, and then into the Northeast around Christmas. Obviously with this being 10 day, confidence on anything is very low. Verbatim, the models would support a snow/ice threat across interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic (cold air damming-favored areas). We'll see.
ECMWF 00z and 12z runs show a southern stream system with a strong eastern Canadian High (more so on the 00z run) that would allow for cold air if not a cut-off low scenario. Will be interesting to watch with many of the long-range models seeing this. With the PNA remaining positive, the NAO and AO declining and the MJO heading into favorable octants for cold air it will be interesting to watch what happens late next week.
Quoting 364. Sfloridacat5:
Tonight's lows based on the 18Z GFS


Well its already 44 here in Longwood and it appears we are heading atleast into the mid 30's.
Quoting 362. wxgeek723:



You think so? My friends in Melbourne detest lows in the 40s.


Your friends have issues and don't know what cold is ;)

In reality though, I don't understand that. I love living in Florida, low 40's for lows is not abnormal for a cold front this time of year, and low 40's for lows is not even close to be being too cold. Its beautiful weather, its not too cold like up north. True cold weather is miserable, that is far from it.

I don't really understand people in Florida who complain about the cooler air when it arrives. When we get cool air, its always short lived, and usually accompanied by bright sunny days and a fresh breeze, not well below freezing, overcast with ice on everything.

I just don't get why people still demand 80's this time of year, I like the 80's when they are seasonably appropriate, but don't people want a change from flip flops and T-shirts for a few weeks in the winter when we get plenty of it most of the year? It makes for a nice refreshing change, and allows us to wear different clothing, and goes well with seasonable holidays and events and such.
Heck, If people don't like the mild, and refreshing cool fronts this time of year, move away from Florida into the deep tropics where its the same old same old year round, 80's and sweaty even in the winter without change.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Your friends have issues and don't know what cold is ;)

In reality though, I don't understand that. I love living in Florida, low 40's for lows is not abnormal for a cold front this time of year, and low 40's for lows is not even close to be being too cold. Its beautiful weather, its not too cold like up north. True cold weather is miserable, that is far from it.

I don't really understand people in Florida who complain about the cooler air when it arrives. When we get cool air, its always short lived, and usually accompanied by bright sunny days and a fresh breeze, not well below freezing, overcast with ice on everything.

I just don't get why people still demand 80's this time of year, I like the 80's when they are seasonably appropriate, but don't people want a change from flip flops and T-shirts for a few weeks in the winter when we get plenty of it most of the year? It makes for a nice refreshing change, and allows us to wear different clothing, and goes well with seasonable holidays and events and such.
Heck, If people don't like the mild, and refreshing cool fronts this time of year, move away from Florida into the deep tropics where its the same old same old year round, 80's and sweaty even in the winter without change.


Oh they do. They're Jersey tax refugees (which probably make up 30% of Florida's current population, lol), but I guess Florida just makes you soft. It's an adjustment. Up here if it's 50 degrees in October you're dressed in three layers but 50 degrees in March and you feel like hopping in a pool. Completely concur about seasonal variation. As much as I hate walking to class in the flurries and cold I admit I would really miss the change. Not sure why everyone even whines about it up in the Mid Atlantic, they make it sound like we live in Duluth. Our average winter high is around 43 and half of our winters are almost snowless. Really it's not that bad.

Quoting 405. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The CMC/GFS operational runs and ensembles are in pretty good agreement for a potent storm system tracking across the South Plains, Southeast, and then into the Northeast around Christmas. Obviously with this being 10 day, confidence on anything is very low. Verbatim, the models would support a snow/ice threat across interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic (cold air damming-favored areas). We'll see.
If the Gulf Coast isn't getting a snowstorm (and we won't), I don't care.

Quoting 421. KoritheMan:


If the Gulf Coast isn't getting a snowstorm (and we won't), I don't care.

lol. That seems to be the mentality in here. But it's not surprising that people care mainly about where they live.
Quoting 419. Jedkins01:



Your friends have issues and don't know what cold is ;)

In reality though, I don't understand that. I love living in Florida, low 40's for lows is not abnormal for a cold front this time of year, and low 40's for lows is not even close to be being too cold. Its beautiful weather, its not too cold like up north. True cold weather is miserable, that is far from it.

I don't really understand people in Florida who complain about the cooler air when it arrives. When we get cool air, its always short lived, and usually accompanied by bright sunny days and a fresh breeze, not well below freezing, overcast with ice on everything.

I just don't get why people still demand 80's this time of year, I like the 80's when they are seasonably appropriate, but don't people want a change from flip flops and T-shirts for a few weeks in the winter when we get plenty of it most of the year? It makes for a nice refreshing change, and allows us to wear different clothing, and goes well with seasonable holidays and events and such.
Heck, If people don't like the mild, and refreshing cool fronts this time of year, move away from Florida into the deep tropics where its the same old same old year round, 80's and sweaty even in the winter without change.
LOL, I grew up in a Great Lakes snowbelt, then moved into the mountains of northern New England. I moved to Florida for a job. See above, some of us like to push the limits on growing tropical plants. Once all my trees mature, I estimate I can get 10%-20% of my food from my trees, shrubs and plants, in a regular suburban lot.
Quoting 422. Drakoen:


lol. That seems to be the mentality in here. But it's not surprising that people care mainly about where they live.

xD, I was being sarcastic. Well, about half and half. :)

It's a bit like picking the hurricane that recurves and the one that is a formative monster in the Caribbean Sea. Both storms are interesting, but the one in the Caribbean is naturally more so.
Quoting 420. wxgeek723:



Oh they do. They're Jersey tax refugees (which probably make up 30% of Florida's current population, lol), but I guess Florida just makes you soft. It's an adjustment. Up here if it's 50 degrees in October you're dressed in three layers but 50 degrees in March and you feel like hopping in a pool. Completely concur about seasonal variation. As much as I hate walking to class in the flurries and cold I admit I would really miss the change. Not sure why everyone even whines about it up in the Mid Atlantic, they make it sound like we live in Duluth. Our average winter high is around 43 and half of our winters are almost snowless. Really it's not that bad.


I spent almost three years at FSU. I wanted to experience a subtropical climate and long growing season. But I found I liked four well defined seasons including winter and was not sorry to relocate back to DC for career purposes. I'd actually like a little more snow and slightly cooler summers than we get in DC but.. job and roots are here.
Quoting 421. KoritheMan:


If the Gulf Coast isn't getting a snowstorm (and we won't), I don't care.



Shall I say the wu June standby?

Dude, we're overdue....


Xmas 1989, 11F








Quoting Drakoen:

lol. That seems to be the mentality in here. But it's not surprising that people care mainly about where they live.


Hybrid subtropical storm hitting Florida in January in a deep-freeze pls.

Quoting 426. Patrap:



Shall I say the wu June standby?

Dude, we're overdue....


Xmas 1989, 11F









I wasn't around until '91, Pat. Andrew was my introductory storm to weather, not the super duper mega freeze of 1989. Although I'm aware that Baton Rouge plummeted all the way to 8F during that. I'd like to see it again. :)

Quoting 427. CybrTeddy:



Hybrid subtropical storm hitting Florida in January in a deep-freeze pls.
Very very tall order. You would need very strong cold air already in place and a deep tracking low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, which almost never happens.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I wasn't around until '91, Pat. Andrew was my introductory storm to weather, not the super duper mega freeze of 1989. Although I'm aware that Baton Rouge plummeted all the way to 8F during that. I'd like to see it again. :)


You tracked Andrew from the crib? How passionate you are.
Quoting 430. wxgeek723:



You tracked Andrew from the crib? How passionate you are.
My father's into weather, too. I was cooing in his arms during the eyewall, sheets of metal a blowin' through my street. You shoulda seen it. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:
My father's into weather, too. I was cooing in his arms during the eyewall, sheets of metal a blowin' through my street. You shoulda seen it. ;)


Oh I bet.

What's the earliest storm you remember tracking?
Dear Santa, please make this happen again.

For reference for 433.



This pretty much proves my point a strong phase system with a strong 1050mb high pressure system coming down from Canada and an active southern Jet Stream. Deformation snow bands whipping back into the Southeast U.S. coast.

Quoting 432. wxgeek723:



Oh I bet.

What's the earliest storm you remember tracking?
Tracking? Ivan. Going through? Actually a random thunderstorm when I was vacationing at Orange Beach in... the year 2000? Lightning struck the ocean and scared me and my brother ****less. Oddly enough it wasn't until we had Isidore two years later that I actually got into weather.
Drak the 240hr GEOS-5 sort of tries to go there.. Don't think the freeze line is quite as south as Teddy is hoping..




My best chance is usually ocean effect snow..
Quoting 406. cytochromeC:



Was just out on Bodega Head on the Sonoma Coast.

Huge swell, with rain and wind picking up.
It feels like a normal NorCal winter coming on.

Except for those water temperatures and the reverse current.
Quoting Drakoen:

Very very tall order. You would need very strong cold air already in place and a deep tracking low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, which almost never happens.


I know, which is why I want it to happen. Florida blizzard!
Quoting 435. Drakoen:

For reference for 433.



This pretty much proves my point a strong phase system with a strong 1050mb high pressure system coming down from Canada and an active southern Jet Stream. Deformation snow bands whipping back into the Southeast U.S. coast.


Yeah, I'm not holding my breath for anything similar anytime soon. It's rare to see that kind of 500mb setup in and of itself, not to mention when coupled with record-breaking cold. Temperatures didn't make it out of the teens for highs at ILM on December 23 and Christmas morning temperatures bottomed out around zero. Not that I was alive to see it. :\

Quoting 437. Skyepony:

Drak the 240hr GEOS-5 sort of tries to go there.. Don't think the freeze line is quite as south as Teddy is hoping..




My best chance is usually ocean effect snow..
If only that high was at least 18mbs stronger.
Speaking of the GEOS-5, how is its accuracy?
Quoting 421. KoritheMan:


If the Gulf Coast isn't getting a snowstorm (and we won't), I don't care.


Don't you at least want something besides the constantly boring Gulf Coast winter weather!?
I would take anything over what I call "dead days" like today where there was not a whiff of cloud in the air and a chilly, biting wind. Couldn't be more boring.
Quoting 426. Patrap:



Shall I say the wu June standby?

Dude, we're overdue....


Xmas 1989, 11F









Thank u for sharing this. Love that he told her that her voice was also being recorded.
Quoting 433. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dear Santa, please make this happen again.


No that can't happen, :) I want a 10 year anniversary of the best and only white Christmas I've ever had. Went to Ezzell where family meets up each year for Christmas, small snow flurry's were happening in the afternoon. We all went to the small church out there with still some small flurries but there was a little more falling then before. After church was done, it was snowing so heavily and the flakes were so large. That night we got to make a snowman, it was about a foot tall. haha Everyone throwing snowballs at each other, it was one heck of a Christmas that i'll certainly never forget. Hoping for another Christmas miracle even if it likely won't happen, maybe not in my lifetime again. :)
Current Lightning animation for Australia



Real-time map
Even before the wind front gets here, the temperature spread around us is weird. Heck, Schurz about an hour drive away is showing low 50's, 20 degrees higher than we are. and they usually share our temp ranges.

Hovering just above freezing, I keep thinking it should warm up.

We're ready, I think. Had a big bonfire out back, for fun, there wasn't any pont in saving the summer/fall deadfall for kindling, we should have a bunch more by the weekend. Also glad we had the delay; the friend who was going to cold-smoke all the last hog's andouille (I got to teach a handful of retired Navy chiefs how to pump and twist sausage, it was hilarious) had his smoker die, and we had to do it ourselves the old fashioned way - with chunks of wood in a barrel smoker. Delayed wind was appreciated.

Sar, I shared your comment with the household, and it was much appreciated. Thank you. Also whoever shared that 300mb image of the jet stream? Everyone loved that. Jet stream is hungry, om nom nom!

Quoting 444. opal92nwf:


Don't you at least want something besides the constantly boring Gulf Coast winter weather!?
I either want an enormous ice storm or an enormous snowstorm. Without either one (particularly snow since I can get ice from my freezer), dry cold is just a nuisance.

Quoting 447. SouthCentralTx:



No that can't happen, :) I want a 10 year anniversary of the best and only white Christmas I've ever had. Went to Ezzell where family meets up each year for Christmas, small snow flurry's were happening in the afternoon. We all went to the small church out there with still some small flurries but there was a little more falling then before. After church was done, it was snowing so heavily and the flakes were so large. That night we got to make a snowman, it was about a foot tall. haha Everyone throwing snowballs at each other, it was one heck of a Christmas that i'll certainly never forget. Hoping for another Christmas miracle even if it likely won't happen, maybe not in my lifetime again. :)

I remember that one well.
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL
DATA AND SATELLITE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ALL THE
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING...AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IS DETECTING A PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR FLOWING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO NORTHERN CA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH PW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.8 INCHES. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE POOL OF COLD AND UNSTABLE
AIR RESULTING IN A ROBUST BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
190 KT UPPER JET IS FLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
135W...TAKING AIM AT CA. NEAR THE FRONT-LEFT QUADRANT OF THIS
UPPER JET A SURFACE CYCLONE IS DEEPENING OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST
THIS EVENING...AND THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THROUGH DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. TAKEN TOGETHER...THESE FACTORS ADD UP TO A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FROM HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
Quoting 447. SouthCentralTx:



No that can't happen, :) I want a 10 year anniversary of the best and only white Christmas I've ever had. Went to Ezzell where family meets up each year for Christmas, small snow flurry's were happening in the afternoon. We all went to the small church out there with still some small flurries but there was a little more falling then before. After church was done, it was snowing so heavily and the flakes were so large. That night we got to make a snowman, it was about a foot tall. haha Everyone throwing snowballs at each other, it was one heck of a Christmas that i'll certainly never forget. Hoping for another Christmas miracle even if it likely won't happen, maybe not in my lifetime again. :)


I remember that. Some of my family lives in Victoria which received around a foot of snow from that event, meanwhile me, who is further north, received no snow at all.

I finished my physics test unscathed, but with a few less hairs than I had before, while the bulk of my midterm testing still remains. This week has been excruciatingly long for me.
Anyhow, AP Environmental Science is by far my favorite class of this year. :D
My strong background in Geoscience has really helped me out in a big way, and now that we're getting into the topics of geology and weather, my teacher is actually going to let me lecture on weather and the atmosphere. *_*
She gave me the lecture notes on what I should have prepped for the class at the start of next semester, which is another reason why I can't wait for this semester to be over.
Quoting 433. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dear Santa, please make this happen again.




Great map for that event. Previously, I did not conceive of the paucity of snowfall in Central FL during this particular storm. For some reason I thought my area had more. Orlando was right on the edge of getting even a trace of snowfall, and the hourly observations at the official recording stations in the Orlando area bear this out. The 1977 event was likely more impressive and even that did not yield a measurable snow report in Orlando, though unofficially up to several inches fell in some parts of the area.
The new low has formed. Time to begin the rain dance.



You can also see the next storm juicing up NW of Hawaii.



Quoting 419. Jedkins01:



Your friends have issues and don't know what cold is ;)

In reality though, I don't understand that. I love living in Florida, low 40's for lows is not abnormal for a cold front this time of year, and low 40's for lows is not even close to be being too cold. Its beautiful weather, its not too cold like up north. True cold weather is miserable, that is far from it.

I don't really understand people in Florida who complain about the cooler air when it arrives. When we get cool air, its always short lived, and usually accompanied by bright sunny days and a fresh breeze, not well below freezing, overcast with ice on everything.

I just don't get why people still demand 80's this time of year, I like the 80's when they are seasonably appropriate, but don't people want a change from flip flops and T-shirts for a few weeks in the winter when we get plenty of it most of the year? It makes for a nice refreshing change, and allows us to wear different clothing, and goes well with seasonable holidays and events and such.
Heck, If people don't like the mild, and refreshing cool fronts this time of year, move away from Florida into the deep tropics where its the same old same old year round, 80's and sweaty even in the winter without change.

Agreed, the relatively small cool down in Central FL is wonderful, versus places in the tropics which are warm/hot year round. Yuck.
Fascinating video of ferocious winds and breakers with an excited doggie to boot (2:00)!


10.12.2014: Walk from Eshaness Lighthouse to Grind of the Navir, Eshaness, Shetland, UK on 10th December 2014. Weather was Force 8-9 winds and 10m westerly swell.


Heavy flooding brings chaos to Sao Paulo
Last Updated: Thursday, December 11, 2014 - 07:28
snowy morning in the city time to head out start clearing snow

Quoting 461. CycloneOz:

Al Gore Preaches Hellfire And Redemption at UN Climate Summit

Why is HE there?


Probably because he cares about the planet, and is an expert on the subject of climate change.
Quoting yonzabam:


Probably because he cares about the planet, and is an expert on the subject of climate change.


Since you actually believe that, he should invite you into his huge carbon footprint, and into his Malibu mansion...and his other mansions.
Quoting 463. CycloneOz:



Since you actually believe that, he should invite you into his huge carbon footprint, and into his Malibu mansion...and his other mansions.


I posted a reply to the article, which claims the 'hockey stick' graph is discredited, in which I defended Al Gore and the graph. It was removed within 5 minutes. Tells you something, doesn't it?
Quoting 464. yonzabam:



I posted a reply to the article, which claims the 'hockey stick' graph is discredited, in which I defended Al Gore and the graph. It was removed within 5 minutes. Tells you something, doesn't it?


Sounds like what happens on this site only the other way.
Quoting 454. HurrMichaelOrl:



Great map for that event. Previously, I did not conceive of the paucity of snowfall in Central FL during this particular storm. For some reason I thought my area had more. Orlando was right on the edge of getting even a trace of snowfall, and the hourly observations at the official recording stations in the Orlando area bear this out. The 1977 event was likely more impressive and even that did not yield a measurable snow report in Orlando, though unofficially up to several inches fell in some parts of the area.


This event was the only one (to my knowledge) that simultaneously shut down I-10, I-75 and I-95 in the state of Florida. Had at least one death due to snowy/icy roads near exit 22 on I-75 in South Georgia.
yonzabam - Your post read:

"I posted a reply to the article, which claims the 'hockey stick' graph is discredited, in which I defended Al Gore and the graph. It was removed within 5 minutes. Tells you something, doesn't it?"

Just think.....if Al Gore hadn't invented the internet as he claimed, we wouldn't be at the WU and wouldn't be able to comment at all!!
48 degrees in Fort Myers - same as last night.

Looking at a beautiful day today.
Lows for S. Florida, 62 in Key West is crazy warm compared to everyone else.
Quoting 468. Sfloridacat5:

48 degrees in Fort Myers - same as last night.

Looking at a beautiful day today.



46 at my house in extreme South Miami Dade County, agree with you about the beautiful weather. I know people complain about cold fronts down here, but I welcome them!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Lows for S. Florida, 62 in Key West is crazy warm compared to everyone else.


Yep, they're surrounded by all that warm water. Its nice to have a chill in the air, makes it feel more like the holidays :)

472. MahFL
Pretty nasty :

Quoting WxGuy2014:


Yep, they're surrounded by all that warm water. Its nice to have a chill in the air, makes it feel more like the holidays :)



Yeah, they're one step away from being a Caribbean Island.
If it gets cold in Key West, the rest of the country has to be frozen (like in the movie 2012).
You'll need dog sleds to get from DC to NYC. Now that would be something to see.
Quoting 375. guygee:

My breadfruit tree on the space coast is going to be very unhappy. It barely survived last winter even though I created a special microclimate for it surrounded in an inside corner of my house by 8-foot high trellis with a warm water drip for its roots. The cold winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 that wiped out about 80% of the coconut trees in my neighborhood also decimated the breadfruit trees in the FL Keys, so I know growing it is just a conceit. I will enjoy it while it lasts.


Learned something new. I didn't know breadfruit were so sensitive to even slight chilling. I grow Citrus in Maryland and Citrus will take a lot of chilling including our typical highs in the 30s or 40s and lows in the upper 20s winter weather. It will not take our arctic outbreaks and I have to protect it in my unheated garage. However it's been outdoors all December so far. I had to protect it the week before thanksgiving.
Quoting 444. opal92nwf:


Don't you at least want something besides the constantly boring Gulf Coast winter weather!?


I did not find it boring when I lived there. There is a fair amount of variation including big rain events, cold outbreaks and some really nice days which are made sweeter because they aren't guaranteed and taken for granted.
Good morning. Things are already getting wild in CA this morning. This is about as extreme a severe thunderstorm warning as you'll see.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA
438 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA CALIFORNIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MENDOCINO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SOUTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 515 AM PST

* AT 438 AM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 90 MPH.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR GRIZZLE CREEK REDWOODS STATE PARK TO NEAR REDWAY TO 11 MILES
SOUTH OF SHELTER COVE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARBERVILLE...SHELTER COVE...GRIZZLE CREEK REDWOODS STATE PARK...
WILLOW CREEK...PEPPERWOOD...BRIDGEVILLE...MYERS FLAT...REDWAY...
WEOTT...MAPLE CREEK...WHITEHORN...SHIVELY...BULL CREEK...
ETTERSBURG...BRICELAND AND MIRANDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A SAFE SHELTER OR
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND
SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 4046 12404 4094 12389 4082 12359 4029 12365
3988 12391 3996 12398 4002 12405 4003 12408
4007 12408 4011 12412
TIME...MOT...LOC 1238Z 201DEG 57KT 4050 12387 4016 12391 3987 12408

$$

BFG
Quoting 423. guygee:

LOL, I grew up in a Great Lakes snowbelt, then moved into the mountains of northern New England. I moved to Florida for a job. See above, some of us like to push the limits on growing tropical plants. Once all my trees mature, I estimate I can get 10%-20% of my food from my trees, shrubs and plants, in a regular suburban lot.

I grow about 50% of my needed lemons in the winter third of the year and 100% is attainable in the next two, here in Central MD.
A frosty 36 here in Longwood and 39 in Orlando. NWS here keeps going by the GFS and continues to get burned as night time lows have been colder than forecast all week.
Quoting 477. georgevandenberghe:


I grow about 50% of my needed lemons in the winter third of the year and 100% is attainable in the next two, here in Central MD.



I also grow all of my greens from May 1 to sometime in December, all of my sweetcorn from June 20-Oct 15, and all tomatoes from July to October. All potatoes from July to January. and all string beans from June-October Other stuff has shorter seasons or I just can't grow enough. I should have enough spinach to last the winter but Fall was tough with family stuff this year and I didn't get enough in. Carrots are tough for me.. very good in winter but keeping them weeded in late summer when the seeds are just coming up is time consuming. The two year old butternut squashes in my basement explain why I don't grow squash any more.
DT is off his meds.But it's a nice reed none the less :p.

All that being said let me reiterate that I and not changing / altering my winter forecast at all based upon what I am seeing right now. In fact the data continues to build for significant pattern change coming in the days before Christmas. The mild and wet pattern is indicative of a strong active southern jet stream that WILL continue (thanks to the weak El Nino). BUT... there are several reasons to feel optimistic about significant snowstorm potentials for the central and eastern U.S. in the last week of December going into January.
Link

We'll see what happens.But I'm still skeptical.
Meyer lemons? Well done.

Quoting 477. georgevandenberghe:


I grow about 50% of my needed lemons in the winter third of the year and 100% is attainable in the next two, here in Central MD.

Low of 41 in Orlando, if ya like official stuff from the NWS.

Link

Low of 41 in Sanford. Officially of course. Longwood is in between, doubt it was 5 degrees cooler.

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We got down to 31 in tallahassee doh.

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JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 482. HaoleboySurfEC:

Meyer lemons? Well done.




Yes they are something called "Improved Meyer". 20 this year
Quoting LakeAlfredian:
yonzabam - Your post read:

"I posted a reply to the article, which claims the 'hockey stick' graph is discredited, in which I defended Al Gore and the graph. It was removed within 5 minutes. Tells you something, doesn't it?"

Just think.....if Al Gore hadn't invented the internet as he claimed, we wouldn't be at the WU and wouldn't be able to comment at all!!
He never claimed that, of course. But it's a tired ol' meme that's been around forever, so why not, huh?
Quoting 473. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, they're one step away from being a Caribbean Island.
If it gets cold in Key West, the rest of the country has to be frozen (like in the movie 2012).
You'll need dog sleds to get from DC to NYC. Now that would be something to see.


Actually one of the patterns that produces deep FL cold is a trough in the East and if its axis is east of 80W or so, the East will be dry as well as cold so rather than dogsledding over the snow you can drive a tank over the frozen ground
between the cities. Chesapeake Bay froze shore to shore in January 1977 and there were stories of cars driven on the Potomac River. January 1977 in DC had no liquid precipitation, all ice and snow but only 9" total over many small events. It also did not reach 50F the ENTIRE MONTH, very rare in DC.

Quoting 469. Sfloridacat5:

Lows for S. Florida, 62 in Key West is crazy warm compared to everyone else.


Odd to see Marathon forecast to have a low 12F colder than Key West. Usually they are more like 5F apart on cold nights. Still, Key West and even Miami are truly tropical climates based on the widely accepted Koppen climate classification system. The Koppen definitions of climate are based on average temperatures so it makes sense that areas at the very northern periphery of a tropical zone(like Miami) may occasionally get temperatures that are quite uncharacteristic of a tropical zone, even though the averages do indeed still make the location tropical. Every time I visit Miami, there isn't a doubt in my mind that I am in a tropical location.