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Category 1 Typhoon Hagupit Drenching the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:43 PM GMT on December 07, 2014

Typhoon Hagupit was a weakened Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds and a 965 mb central pressure over the Central Philippines on Sunday morning, after making landfall in Dolores, Eastern Samar, at 9:15 pm local time on Saturday. At landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center rated Hagupit a major Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and the Japan Meteorological Agency gave it a central pressure of 935 mb. On the island of Samar, Borongan received 15.55" (395 mm) of rain in just 24 hours, and Catbalogan got 14.18" (360 mm). Two deaths are being blamed on the typhoon so far, and it appears the islands avoided a major catastrophe.

Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and interaction with land will continue to slowly weaken Hagupit. Satellite loops show that the eye is no longer distinct and the cloud tops of the intense eyewall thunderstorms have warmed significantly, indicating weakening. Nevertheless, Hagupit is a very large and wet storm, and is still a very serious heavy rainfall threat. The storm's slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph through the Philippines will insure that a large portion of the islands receive torrential rains of 10 - 15". Since Hagupit is likely to track very close to the capital city of Manila as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon, heavy rains of 10 - 15" could affect the southern portion of this city of 12 million. Hagupit's closest approach to Manila will come between 06 - 18 UTC on Monday.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Hagupit over the Central Philippines at 02:40 UTC on Sunday December 7, 2014. At the time, Hagupit was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation from Typhoon Hagupit from the 06 UTC Sunday run of the GFDL hurricane model. Widespread areas of 8 - 16" (yellow colors), with some areas of 16+ inches were predicted. The capital of Manila was at the edge of the area expected to receive 8 - 16" of rain. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Links
If you want to make a charitable donation to storm relief in the Philippines, consider a donation to DirectRelief. As discussed by Dr. Greg Laden in his blog, DirectRelief is a private humanitarian nonprofit organization based in Santa Barbara, California, with a mission to “improve the health and lives of people affected by poverty or emergency situations by mobilizing and providing essential medical resources needed for their care." They have three strategically pre-positioned typhoon modules with enough medicines and supplies supplies to treat 5,000 people for a month following the Hagupit disaster. DirectRelief's Hagupit web page is here.

Storm chaser James Reynolds is in the Philippines, and will be offering updates from Western Samar via his Twitter feed.

Latest storm news from Philippine news site rappler.com.

Storm surge expert Hal Needham has a blog post on the history of storm surges in the Philippines: The Philippines Has a History of Catastrophic, Fast-Moving Storm Surges.



Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season: for each dollar donated between now and Monday, I pledge to make a matching donation. Here’s a sampling of what the money will go towards in 2015:

- Holding more Getting It Right conferences, starting in Hampton Roads, Virginia, in late February.

- Launching a traveling photo exhibit – “Disastrous: Left Behind” – in the lobby of FEMA’s headquarters in late January, with many more venues to follow around the country.

- Celebrating the 25th anniversary of the ADA on July 26th, 2015.

- Continuing to streamline their disaster response process in order to immediately respond better, faster, and smarter.

Portlight Strategies’ mission is to provide disaster services to the disability community, and to foster inclusive disaster planning and response for people with all types of disabilities. You can donate at the "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign page. As always, you can visit the Portlight Blog or Portlight website to stay current on their latest efforts.


Video 1. ISS Flyover of Typhoon Hagupit at (4x speed) on December 6, 2014. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this link in my blog comments.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
After the rainstorm on Tues-Wed, there will be another rainstorm the following Tues-Wed, wet days ahead, the ground is gonna have to take in more water.
Thanks Doc.
I'm very curious. This hurricane season, we had neutral conditions yet if you look at both basins, it looks like we had a moderate el nino based on the activity in the EPAC. In 2013 and 2012 we also had neutral but both seasons were very weak as well. 3rd straight year where we have had rather inactive seasons. It looks like el nino will be declared in January and most models have it lasting into June before going back into a warm neutral. Usually based on the enso, we have a pretty good estimate of how much activity each basin will have but the last 3 seasons have been headaches. prior to 2012, neutral season were active in the atlantic but the last 3 years disprove it. Who knows how the 2015 season will be but it would be astonishing if we got a 4th straight inactive season. Possibly an end to the Active Era?
It's good the Pacific Storm Train is waking up with it bring rainstorm after rainstorm, but do you imagine how many good snowstorms we could have had if the cold air was in place, that may be good when January is here.
Quoting 2. Climate175:

After the rainstorm on Tues-Wed, there will be another rainstorm the following Tues-Wed, wet days ahead, the ground is gonna have to take in more water.
The Low is right over my house XD.Lol.But seriously we don't need anymore heavy rain storms.We need at least two weeks fry period.So it seems like it'll be following the pattern from last winter.The storm is always centered somewhere on Tuesday.

Quoting 6. washingtonian115:

The Low is right over my house XD.Lol.But seriously we don't need anymore heavy rain storms.We need at least two weeks fry period.So it seems like it'll be following the pattern from last winter.The storm is always centered somewhere on Tuesday.
January-February is when the cold is established foreal.
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters!
Here's the coldest morning down in the S.E. and Florida coming next week.
Here's the coldest afternoon. Looks like temps in the 50s across central Florida and 60s across southern Florida.
Good morning. It looks like relatively good news about Hagupit compared to what might have been. With all the rain the storm is bringing, I hope it goes further south from Manila than the current models show but I suspect it ends up passing very near Manila and dropping 10" - 15" of rain on a city of 12 million. Manila is a city where it rains a lot, with monthly totals of over 15" being common, so at least the storm is going to dropping it's rain on a city which has the infrastructure to handle heavy rain better than some of the less developed regions.

Another beautiful day in Alabama, with blue skies and a temperature of 62. The low hit 44 overnight, and the front did develop enough lift that I got 0.26" of rain. Wow!! Not complaining though, as I'll take any rain that comes my way.

The cooler temperatures are welcome after the last five days of summer-like heat and humidity. Unfortunately, it looks like the dreaded Georgia Wedge develops tomorrow as we get a stagnant high and enough lift to our east to develop stratus from the CAA but not enough lift for rain. That means gloomy weather for eastern Alabama with highs only in the low 50's here and 40's north. All the weather action this work week stays far to our north, although a shortwave will pass closes enough to us on Wednesday to hopefully bring more dry air and erode the wedge. We've now entered Alabama's version of winter, and the long range outlooks make another winter storm event around Christmas week start to look possible. We shall see how it all turns out, since the models have already demonstrated they are having a harder time than usual getting a handle on the long range weather this year.

EDIT: Lest we forget, today is the 72nd anniversary of the sneak attack by the Japanese on Pearl Harbor. Very few of the men and women who were at Pearl that fateful Sunday are still with us, and the number will soon be zero. It falls to us, the sons and daughters of those who fought and sacrificed so much, to remember the battles that they fought.
Thursday next week
As the cold air builds into Florida, warm air is building across the southern and northern Plains.
Warm air is locked in across the eastern half of the U.S. by next weekend.
Strong storm moving into northern California late next week.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Here's the coldest afternoon. Looks like temps in the 50s across central Florida and 60s across southern Florida.

It looks like the GFS is too pessimistic on highs and too optimistic on lows. The highs must be based on the idea that the Georgia Wedge will still be in place after the passage of the shortwave, which is almost never true. With some clearing, we should make it into the low 50's. Conversely, it looks like the lows are based on cloud cover remaining into Thursday morning, which is unlikely. With clear skies and diminishing winds, we should be able to drop into the mid to high 20's Thursday and Friday mornings. Time to haul all the plants in again, just when they were getting used to summer. :-)
There's an interesting storm in the Gulf of Alaska just now in this sat video:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Pacifi cSatellite.aspx?animate=true

It appears to be moving west toward the Aleutians, which is opposite what one might expect. And, there's another building to the south of it, moving East.
Quoting 4. wunderweatherman123:

I'm very curious. This hurricane season, we had neutral conditions yet if you look at both basins, it looks like we had a moderate el nino based on the activity in the EPAC. In 2013 and 2012 we also had neutral but both seasons were very weak as well. 3rd straight year where we have had rather inactive seasons. It looks like el nino will be declared in January and most models have it lasting into June before going back into a warm neutral. Usually based on the enso, we have a pretty good estimate of how much activity each basin will have but the last 3 seasons have been headaches. prior to 2012, neutral season were active in the atlantic but the last 3 years disprove it. Who knows how the 2015 season will be but it would be astonishing if we got a 4th straight inactive season. Possibly an end to the Active Era?

2012 was not inactive. It had the 3rd highest number of named storms, 4th highest number of hurricanes, and 19th highest ACE despite seeing only 2 major hurricanes. As far as if the active era has ended, it's just too soon to speak definitively. But the Atlantic SST configuration the past few years leads me to say no, it hasn't.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
I'm very curious. This hurricane season, we had neutral conditions yet if you look at both basins, it looks like we had a moderate el nino based on the activity in the EPAC. In 2013 and 2012 we also had neutral but both seasons were very weak as well. 3rd straight year where we have had rather inactive seasons. It looks like el nino will be declared in January and most models have it lasting into June before going back into a warm neutral. Usually based on the enso, we have a pretty good estimate of how much activity each basin will have but the last 3 seasons have been headaches. prior to 2012, neutral season were active in the atlantic but the last 3 years disprove it. Who knows how the 2015 season will be but it would be astonishing if we got a 4th straight inactive season. Possibly an end to the Active Era?
I think this is a case of scientific hubris to some extent. Meteorologists often get a poke in the ribs from Mother Nature when they think they have some very complicated things figured out. We really haven't been studying the whole ENSO thing for very long, and I suspect we have gotten out in front of the knowledge curve with our forecasts. These huge global changes are so complicated that I suspect anyone reading my words 100 years from now will still be scratching their head about the El Nino/La Nina of 2114 didn't go according to forecasts either. The same is true with hurricanes. We know they go through a cycle of becoming more common and then becoming less common but we really don't have a clue about what makes the cycles switch. Even the current sunspot cycle isn't cooperating with forecasts. I just think people who write about such phenomena need to be a lot more circumspect about how likely it is for their forecasts to verify. As I recall, we had some scientists and a lot of media science writers calling for all sorts of "emergency" actions to prepare for the coming Super El Nino. A few have written followups with their ideas of why their forecasts were so wrong. The others are just on to the next Big Thing and pretending 2014, the year of Monster El Nino, didn't happen.
Quoting EricGreen:
There's an interesting storm in the Gulf of Alaska just now in this sat video:

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Pacifi cSatellite.aspx?animate=true

It appears to be moving west toward the Aleutians, which is opposite what one might expect. And, there's another building to the south of it, moving East.
As usual, a copied and pasted link here doesn't work, since the software adds an extra space. If you use the Link box, like this, it will work.

I think we're seeing the beginnings of the Pineapple Connection for California and much of the West Coast. In a typical moderate to strong El Nino year, we see lows from the Gulf of Alaska drop much further south as the Humboldt Current weakens and the westerly trades drop. This warmer water helps low get further south, drawing up a long fetch of moisture from the subtropical Pacific. To my untrained eye, we're seeing the beginnings of that set up now. Of course, we don't have an official El Nino, but the atmosphere seems to be responding like we do. It's beyond me to understand why all this takes place, only that it's happening.
Good news for the Philippines so far but we know that death tolls will rise in the coming days as flooding rain continues for folks who were not/unable/did not evacuate from areas inland from the coast prone to flash flooding issues; it's one big torrential monsoon over those Islands so flooding deaths from rising waters and slides will continue.

They are not in the clear by any means in spite of the storm weakening.
I would be weary of looking at the GFS as reliable guidance for this coming week. Anyways, it appears we may be dealing with a retrograding mid-latitude cyclone that will back into the Northeast and occlude as it becomes vertically stacked with the upper level energy. Could be dealing with this system for several days as some of the more reliable UKMET and ECMWF models show strong blocking south of the Hudson Bay region prevent the system from easily heading up into the Canadian Meritimes. Things will start out as rain except for the deep interior regions, but as the low occludes things could transition over to snow.
On the active vs. passive phase, I don't have the answer if the current Atlantic trends are pointing at the end of the active cycle. Arguably, it could look that way if you base your observation on the lack of any major storm strikes on the US in several years (we have been very lucky) but if we get a good stretch of 8-10 storm year seasons, regardless of the enso phase, I can see the pros declaring a less-active phase period. Not any less dangerous as history has shown if the right storm comes along.

As I have mentioned (perhaps too often), for me the lack of significant major strikes US wise in the recent years has been more than off-set by the vigorous activity in the Pacific including the E-Pac in recent years.

It's one interrelated system at some level as the Earth spins off tropical storms in all the world's basins as a heat transfer method in any given year.

Quoting 4. wunderweatherman123:

I'm very curious. This hurricane season, we had neutral conditions yet if you look at both basins, it looks like we had a moderate el nino based on the activity in the EPAC. In 2013 and 2012 we also had neutral but both seasons were very weak as well. 3rd straight year where we have had rather inactive seasons. It looks like el nino will be declared in January and most models have it lasting into June before going back into a warm neutral. Usually based on the enso, we have a pretty good estimate of how much activity each basin will have but the last 3 seasons have been headaches. prior to 2012, neutral season were active in the atlantic but the last 3 years disprove it. Who knows how the 2015 season will be but it would be astonishing if we got a 4th straight inactive season. Possibly an end to the Active Era?
I have to work now so I can't exactly pull it up, but the eastern Pacific SST anomalies over the summer, while definitely not suggesting El Nino, were definitely anomalously warm in many locations, even if that warming was unfocused. That pretty easily explains the active season there. Plus latent heat release at the surface (warm SSTs) gives way to ballooning upper air ridging above the surface warm pool, lowering the vertical shear by diverting the upper-tropospheric westerlies.
Quoting 21. sar2401:

As usual, a copied and pasted link here doesn't work, since the software adds an extra space. If you use the Link box, like this, it will work.

I think we're seeing the beginnings of the Pineapple Connection for California and much of the West Coast. In a typical moderate to strong El Nino year, we see lows from the Gulf of Alaska drop much further south as the Humboldt Current weakens and the westerly trades drop. This warmer water helps low get further south, drawing up a long fetch of moisture from the subtropical Pacific. To my untrained eye, we're seeing the beginnings of that set up now. Of course, we don't have an official El Nino, but the atmosphere seems to be responding like we do. It's beyond me to understand why all this takes place, only that it's happening.
Greetings sar. Actually , the atmosphere has been behaving " Nino like " for about a year, despite not being official. The truth is, that we have had a sort of " half Nino " for lack of a better term , and it has had some effect on the weather patterns. This next two weeks will be interesting in my opinion , because the experts will be able to determine just what North America can expect during the peak of winter.
One final comment on my thoughts today; I haven't looked up this statistic but it would interesting to note what the world-wide tropical storm averages, in any given year, have been the last few decades (in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres) and whether the overall numbers have remained average, show a falling trend, or show an increased trend in recent years. That would be an interesting stat from an overall climate change standpoint.

Yall Have a Great Weekend and Prayers to the folks in the Philippines.
Quoting 7. Climate175:


January-February is when the cold is established foreal.

Yeah, I think it won't be until January until real winter kicks in.
Long way out , but would be quite a set up..Plus its the Euro , which means it is at least feasible..


Quoting 29. hydrus:

Long way out , but would be quite a set up..Plus its the Euro , which means it is at least feasible..


The only thing about that is that the system in the GOM is out of phase with the system over the Great Lakes.
Quoting 30. Drakoen:


The only thing about that is that the system in the GOM is out of phase with the system over the Great Lakes.

True...But it is 10 days out...what if...jaws music in the background...:)
There are only two weeks of fall left officially.
Quoting 21. sar2401:

As usual, a copied and pasted link here doesn't work, since the software adds an extra space. If you use the Link box, like this, it will work.



Thanks for the "heads up".
Here's another satellite view of the flow, which appears as the result of zonal flow: LINK

Here it is again for water vapor: LINK

Winter Recon scheduled for tomorrow:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. A62/ DROP 7 (34.0N 72.3W)/ 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 02WSA TRACK62
C. 08/1830Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 09/0200Z
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings sar. Actually , the atmosphere has been behaving " Nino like " for about a year, despite not being official. The truth is, that we have had a sort of " half Nino " for lack of a better term , and it has had some effect on the weather patterns. This next two weeks will be interesting in my opinion , because the experts will be able to determine just what North America can expect during the peak of winter.
Greetings as well, Hydrus. I quite agree. We've been in a fairly long period of El Nino-like conditions without all the supposed ingredients being in place. I say "supposed" because I don't believe we understand ENSO well enough to say "When X and Y happen, then Z will occur". El Nino is a whole bunch of things happening with the atmosphere and the oceans in some coordinated way, but we're not aware of all the conditions that Have to be in place for El Nino events to happen. Certainly the Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes seasons are textbook examples of what we'd expect with El Nino. I believe that Pineapple Connection is also starting, and a month from now, the news from California won't be the drought. I also believe the East in general, and Southeast in particular is about to transition into the cool, wet winter we could expect with El Nino. Obviously, I have neither the training nor experience to positively say all this is from some kind of El Nino that we just don't understand yet, but it seems reasonable to me. Otherwise, it's 65 with a fresh north breeze under a perfectly blue sky here, so my worries about how the global atmosphere operates will be held in abeyance, at least for today. :-)
Big surf for Mavericks (Half Moon Bay) is my prediction for this winter.


Quoting 21. sar2401:

As usual, a copied and pasted link here doesn't work, since the software adds an extra space. If you use the Link box, like this, it will work.

I think we're seeing the beginnings of the Pineapple Connection for California and much of the West Coast. In a typical moderate to strong El Nino year, we see lows from the Gulf of Alaska drop much further south as the Humboldt Current weakens and the westerly trades drop. This warmer water helps low get further south, drawing up a long fetch of moisture from the subtropical Pacific. To my untrained eye, we're seeing the beginnings of that set up now. Of course, we don't have an official El Nino, but the atmosphere seems to be responding like we do. It's beyond me to understand why all this takes place, only that it's happening.
I think it will lock in a little earlier around the first day of winter.

Quoting 28. opal92nwf:


Yeah, I think it won't be until January until real winter kicks in.
Quoting EricGreen:


Thanks for the "heads up".
Here's another satellite view of the flow, which appears as the result of zonal flow: LINK

Here it is again for water vapor: LINK

It is indeed zonal flow, one of the necessary precursors for a good wet winter in California. Persistent zonal flow brings all the lows moving south right into the California/Oregon border. I was living in the North Bay for the 1982, 1986, 1995, and 1997 floods, and the persistent zonal flow was a characteristic of all those years. As much as I hated drought, going months with rain for three days, one day of clearing, then the next storm for three days really gets on one's nerves, especially when I was expected to go out and pull the same people off the roofs of the same houses each time it happened. :-)
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Big surf for Mavericks (Half Moon Bay) is my prediction for this winter.


LOL. It happens every time we get these big Alaskan lows. The state park lifeguards will be busy again. Thankfully, HMB was outside my jurisdiction, but I remember talking to them and having them complain about all the FNG's they had to rescue in big years.
Quoting 35. sar2401:

Greetings as well, Hydrus. I quite agree. We've been in a fairly long period of El Nino-like conditions without all the supposed ingredients being in place. I say "supposed" because I don't believe we understand ENSO well enough to say "When X and Y happen, then Z will occur". El Nino is a whole bunch of things happening with the atmosphere and the oceans in some coordinated way, but we're not aware of all the conditions that Have to be in place for El Nino events to happen. Certainly the Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes seasons are textbook examples of what we'd expect with El Nino. I believe that Pineapple Connection is also starting, and a month from now, the news from California won't be the drought. I also believe the East in general, and Southeast in particular is about to transition into the cool, wet winter we could expect with El Nino. Obviously, I have neither the training nor experience to positively say all this is from some kind of El Nino that we just don't understand yet, but it seems reasonable to me. Otherwise, it's 65 with a fresh north breeze under a perfectly blue sky here, so my worries about how the global atmosphere operates will be held in abeyance, at least for today. :-)
The El Nino is a very large and dynamic event that has a huge effect on the worlds weather. What concerns me this time around is the subtropical jet is active, and the polar jet will likely meridional in nature. That in itself can cause problems , add in snow cover , stratospheric warming , and Negative AO-NAO , and a real severe winter threat lands on the U.S.
Quoting 16. Sfloridacat5:

Strong storm moving into northern California late next week.



NWS is warning of strong, possibly damaging winds with this Wed-Thurs storm. This one will include a good push of cold air, yanked in by a powerful jet, amped up by Hagupit's outflow. This cold air will be crossing our abnormally mild coastal SSTs which should add to its punch. Hopefully, this one dumps snow in our Sierra watershed measured in feet rather than inches.
Wow Christmas is 2 weeks away!
"The Earth’s atmosphere changes slowly, and tends to run about four to six weeks behind the sun. During the Winter Solstice, the sun is at its lowest point in the sky at local noon, which means that we are receiving the least amount of sunlight of the entire year. Though it would stand to reason that this would be the coldest time of the year, the atmosphere takes several weeks to catch up. This occurs despite the fact that, by late January, the sun is getting higher in the sky and daylight lasts somewhat longer".
Quoting 44. Climate175:

Wow Christmas is 2 weeks away!
Well I got most of my Christmas shopping done.About 75 percent.All I need is a few more items checked off the list and we're done.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
I think it will lock in a little earlier around the first day of winter.


Yeah, I think we'll see a big shift in the days preceding Christmas. This is consistent with the analog years for this season. Arctic hammer really comes down in January and February.
Quoting 38. sar2401:

It is indeed zonal flow, one of the necessary precursors for a good wet winter in California. Persistent zonal flow brings all the lows moving south right into the California/Oregon border. I was living in the North Bay for the 1982, 1986, 1995, and 1997 floods, and the persistent zonal flow was a characteristic of all those years. As much as I hated drought, going months with rain for three days, one day of clearing, then the next storm for three days really gets on one's nerves, especially when I was expected to go out and pull the same people off the roofs of the same houses each time it happened. :-)
I remember those events well..In 82-83 , I was in S.W.Florida , and we were repeatedly beaten by huge gales , some lasting a full 3 days before letting up..When living aboard , that can be very taxing indeed.
Quoting Climate175:
"The Earth%u2019s atmosphere changes slowly, and tends to run about four to six weeks behind the sun. During the Winter Solstice, the sun is at its lowest point in the sky at local noon, which means that we are receiving the least amount of sunlight of the entire year. Though it would stand to reason that this would be the coldest time of the year, the atmosphere takes several weeks to catch up. This occurs despite the fact that, by late January, the sun is getting higher in the sky and daylight lasts somewhat longer".


Weird things happen when dealing with the weather.
Our all time record low here in Fort Myers was on December 13th, 1962 with 26 degrees.

Many locations in Florida (Orlando to name another) and the S.E. also set their all time record low temperature on that date (December 13th, 1962).
Officially, it's not even Winter yet.

But as you mentioned, traditionally the coldest time of the year is a few weeks into January.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters.....



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Quoting 47. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, I think we'll see a big shift in the days preceding Christmas. This is consistent with the analog years for this season. Arctic hammer really comes down in January and February.

You sound like Bastardi with the "analog year" style forecasting ;)

Analogs are useful, but you can't use them for day by day or even week by week forecasting. I agree the Arctic hammer comes down after the coming warm-up, but I'm thinking more towards New Years, Christmas time will likely still run warmer than average. As I've said, it'll take some time to carve out the warmth we're going to build. This is the GFS ensemble for 16 days out. ECMWF ensemble looks similar, if anything it's warmer. Clearly, that will not turn cold in time for Christmas. How hard and how frequently the hammer drops in January is up for debate, certainly taking the monthly analogs and other factors into account there could be some big cold shots.

Quoting Grothar:
With the California rains and strong southern jet, I think we have El Niño now.
thanks dok!
Quoting 54. Grothar:




...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA...
HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN WA THIS
PERIOD...WITH TWO-DAY TOTALS OF 4-7 INCHES LIKELY ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN CASCADES AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE OLYMPICS THE WPC DETERMINISTIC FORECAST
PRESENTS GREATER THAN 8 INCHES FOR THE DAY 2/3 48-HOUR PERIOD.
GIVEN GOOD GLOBAL MODEL AGREEMENT AND MODERATELY ANOMALOUS WIND
AND PW FIELDS...WE LEANED TOWARD THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OUTPUT
FROM OUR IN-HOUSE PSEUDO BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE. THE MAIN CHANGE
THIS CYCLE WAS TO
FURTHER INCREASE AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...AND EXTEND
HEAVIER AMOUNTS DOWN THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.


Link
Quoting 55. Andrebrooks:

With the California rains and strong southern jet, I think we have El Nio now.
Storms coming to California soon and then they will move across the country.
Quoting Grothar:

winter storm watches have been issued for parts of the northeast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I think we'll see a big shift in the days preceding Christmas. This is consistent with the analog years for this season. Arctic hammer really comes down in January and February.


Indeed! Over at americanwxforums, a member said the other day that the Euro ensemble control showed the 850MB -10C line all the way down to Orlando toward Christmas! Not saying that will happen but wow!!!
Hints that the back-end of the storm may bring a period of snow, still going to be a rainstorm in total.
It's suppose to be in the 30s tomorrow.
Good Sunday evening, the second one in Advent.
I'm glad to see that Hagupit obviously wasn't another apocalyptic catastrophe for the Philippines (due to the way better preparation in advance of the storm). Nevertheless, some of those poor ones who had lost everything a year ago in Haiyan will have to restart anew.



Based on the 18Z GFS, Dec. 10th-11th will be the coldest days over the next two weeks (through Dec.22nd) for the eastern part of the U.S.

We all know a lot will change with the forecast over the next two weeks, but I thought it was worth mentioning.




heavy rain storm in the 50S
In central Germany this Sunday wasn't a day to sit in front of your screen. First sunshine since many days as we were captured in an inversional weather situation (beneath quite cold and foggy airmasses, aloft warmer and clear ones), so it was mandatory to walk outside to catch some sunrays for your pale skin and dump mood. In the evening a little rain front came in. Here a little video I took after sunset from the opposite banks of Rhine River in a little open air (!) bar (few visitors though) with view to the skyline of the historic town of Mainz. To the right (north) you see the clouds coming in.



Meanwhile in other regions of Europe:

Still very unsettled weather with an unusual lot of (severe) thunderstorms in the Mediterranean (central and east now). Some parts more to the north still have to deal with crazy ice rain and rime in higher regions, here a pic from Slovenia:


Source.

Later on in the new week it's going to be interesting for the northwestern parts of Europe:


ECMWF wind map (850 hPa) for tomorrow, Monday.


Tuesday: "Bombogenesis" south of Greenland and Iceland.


Wednesday: Full force into the British Isles.


Thursday: a marginal stormy low (in German: "Schnelllaeufer" = "quickrunner" - how is it called in English?) at the southern side of the low is developing.


Friday: This "quickrunner" windstorm is going to blow away the residual leaves on German trees. Hope I got this right, meteorologically, lol. Source.

Especially the hight of the waves hitting the western coasts of the British Isles will be remarkable! You may look forward to a follow up of those epic surf videos the European WU members posted last winter ;-)



Source: WU.

Good night, and a good start into the new week as well!
Quoting 52. MAweatherboy1:


You sound like Bastardi with the "analog year" style forecasting ;)

I take that as an insult. ;)

Quoting 52. MAweatherboy1:


Analogs are useful, but you can't use them for day by day or even week by week forecasting. I agree the Arctic hammer comes down after the coming warm-up, but I'm thinking more towards New Years, Christmas time will likely still run warmer than average. As I've said, it'll take some time to carve out the warmth we're going to build. This is the GFS ensemble for 16 days out. ECMWF ensemble looks similar, if anything it's warmer. Clearly, that will not turn cold in time for Christmas. How hard and how frequently the hammer drops in January is up for debate, certainly taking the monthly analogs and other factors into account there could be some big cold shots.



Just to be clear, I'm not using the analogs to say it will be cold in the days preceding Christmas, that's a forecast I'm making based on what should be the MJO's progression from octant 6 (favoring USA warmth) to octants 7, 8, and 1 (favoring USA cold). This is not dissimilar to analogs for this season such as 1976-77 and 2003-04 among other years that featured a warm December and then frigid January and February. I agree that the switch will be more gradual than abrupt, but I think the cold will really start to set in before the start of 2015. In the extended range, we're starting to see signs of our first true sudden stratosphere warming event in the model guidance. Those who enjoy warmth should enjoy it while it lasts.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
201 PM PST SUN DEC 7 2014

...POWERFUL STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEDS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE
NORTH BAY INTO MONDAY. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM SAN
FRANCISCO SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH BAY BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING...THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT SATURDAY.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PST SUNDAY...SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL
DEAL WITH INCOMING FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT...MAINLY THE NORTH BAY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAINFALL. SINCE
ABOUT 18Z THIS MORNING WE`VE HAD ABOUT 65 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER OUR OFFSHORE WATERS OUT NEAR 38N/125W.
VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY JUST ABOUT
TO ENTER OUR COASTAL WATER ZONES ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE...WEST OF
BODEGA BAY. HAVE UPDATED MARINE ZONES FOR T-STORMS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AS CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES CONTINUE TO BE NUMEROUS WITH
CELLS FEEDING OFF THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM OCEAN SSTS. SWING SHIFT
WILL MONITOR BAND OF CONVECTION AS IT MARCHES EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE MARINE COMMUNITY.

Very muggy, although mild today in the SF Bay Area.

Quoting 71. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I take that as an insult. ;)


Just to be clear, I'm not using the analogs to say it will be cold in the days preceding Christmas, that's a forecast I'm making based on what should be the MJO's progression from octant 6 (favoring USA warmth) to octants 7, 8, and 1 (favoring USA cold). This is not dissimilar to analogs for this season such as 1976-77 and 2003-04 among other years that featured a warm December and then frigid January and February. I agree that the switch will be more gradual than abrupt, but I think the cold will really start to set in before the start of 2015. In the extended range, we're starting to see signs of our first true sudden stratosphere warming event in the model guidance. Those who enjoy warmth should enjoy it while it lasts.


I'd like to add to this that using the GFS 384 hr is not a way to forecast what will happen in the long range. I don't even trust the Euro weeklies anymore. The main thing to monitor is the teleconnections and whether the surface features on the model match what the teleconnections would indicate.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



Calling all students! Interested in gaining experience in a National Weather Service Forecast Office? More student internship opportunities through the Pathways Program have been listed on USAjobs.gov!

Good luck and please help us spread the word, this announcement closes December 19th! (Note: students must be attending an accredited college/university program for at least 2 years.)

$31,628.00 to $69,391.00 / Per Year

Not bad for an internship! Unfortunately, the jobs are not really for college students. Except for one opening, you need either be in grad school or have a masters and be going for your doctorate. It appears the NWS is really looking for people who can convert to being a full-time employee when they complete their internship. One of my nephews is a junior headed toward his physics degree and hopes to get into an atmospheric physics masters program so I was all excited there for a minute. Darn! More information here.
Saturday 72/72 and Sunday 54/64. Saturday was mild and pleasant, while today was cool and cloudy. The high of 64 was in the predawn hours with a slow fall afterwards---will be 50 or so by midnight.
Quoting barbamz:
In central Germany this Sunday wasn't a day to sit in front of your screen. First sunshine since many days as we were captured in an inversional weather situation (beneath quite cold and foggy airmasses, aloft warmer and clear ones), so it was mandatory to walk outside to catch some sunrays for your pale skin and dump mood. In the evening a little rain front came in. Here a little video I took after sunset from the opposite banks of Rhine River in a little open air (!) bar (few visitors though) with view to the skyline of the historic town of Mainz. To the right (north) you see the clouds coming in.



Meanwhile in other regions of Europe:

Still very unsettled weather with an unusual lot of (severe) thunderstorms in the Mediterranean (central and east now). Some parts more to the north still have to deal with crazy ice rain and rime in higher regions, here a pic from Slovenia:


Source.

Later on in the new week it's going to be interesting for the northwestern parts of Europe:


ECMWF wind map (850 hPa) for tomorrow, Monday.


Tuesday: "Bombogenesis" south of Greenland and Iceland.


Wednesday: Full force into the British Isles.


Thursday: a marginal stormy low (in German: "Schnelllaeufer" = "quickrunner" - how is it called in English?) at the southern side of the low is developing.


Friday: This "quickrunner" windstorm is going to blow away the residual leaves on German trees. Hope I got this right, meteorologically, lol. Source.

Especially the hight of the waves hitting the western coasts of the British Isles will be remarkable! You may look forward to a follow up of those epic surf videos the European WU members posted last winter ;-)



Source: WU.

Good night, and a good start into the new week as well!
Sounds like a nice day at your place. Very nice here as well. I can't believe Slovenia and almost all of the former Yugoslavia is getting more ice storms. These kinds of severe ice storms were not all that common in the past and now we have two in one year. That combined with completely weird Medicanes that seem to still be happening in December...well, I don't know, but something seems to be broken with our weather lately.
Quoting 75. sar2401:


$31,628.00 to $69,391.00 / Per Year

Not bad for an internship! Unfortunately, the jobs are not really for college students. Except for one opening, you need either be in grad school or have a masters and be going for your doctorate. It appears the NWS is really looking for people who can convert to being a full-time employee when they complete their internship. One of my nephews is a junior headed toward his physics degree and hopes to get into an atmospheric physics masters program so I was all excited there for a minute. Darn! More information here.


Not how I read it, only GS07/09 have the grad type requirements, GS05 level does not.
Quoting 78. nrtiwlnvragn:



Not how I read it, only GS07/09 have the grad type requirements, GS05 level does not.

GS-05 Grade Level
Must have completed at least 4
academic years
of post-high school leading to a bachelor's degree or
equivalent degree
. (NOTE: One year of full-time academic study is
defined as 120 semester hours, 180 quarter hours, or the equivalent in a
college or university.)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not how I read it, only GS07/09 have the grad type requirements, GS05 level does not.
There's only one at the GS-05 level in College Park. All the others are GS-07/09. Even then, you need to have to bachelor's degree before you qualify for the GS-05 job, but you don't (apparently) have to be accepted at grad school. Of course, we all know that the basic requirements are just the first bar to entry. What each office needs in terms of a future employee appears to be the thrust of this program.
Quoting Drakoen:



I'd like to add to this that using the GFS 384 hr is not a way to forecast what will happen in the long range. I don't even trust the Euro weeklies anymore. The main thing to monitor is the teleconnections and whether the surface features on the model match what the teleconnections would indicate.
How many times did ALL the models at various times forecast a ghost storm in the Caribbean and Atlantic this year? It got to the point I'd cringe every time the GFS or Euro showed some low developing at 300 hours and some people would get all excited, following model run after model run until the supposed storm just disappeared. I don't know what the total number of ghost storms that was forecast this year but it was a lot. Now we're going to do it all over again for winter storms, even though we've just seen an example of the models forecasting a big cold wave this week that's not going to happen either. I really don't know what it takes for people to get disenchanted with models beyond 120 hours. Maybe they just have to live longer and ride the roller coaster enough to get nauseous.
Very last thing for tonight (OT) from Fogo (Cape Verde Islands) where the lava just has destroyed a village:



Here another one.


TWC,connect with weather, Our Partners


Portlight Strategies is honored to be a partner with the The Weather Channels new program, Connect with Weather. It is a great way to partner our mission to those in times of need.

The whole Portlight community is proud as well.

This is your good works and support come to fruition.


Thank you.
Quoting 71. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I take that as an insult. ;)


Just to be clear, I'm not using the analogs to say it will be cold in the days preceding Christmas, that's a forecast I'm making based on what should be the MJO's progression from octant 6 (favoring USA warmth) to octants 7, 8, and 1 (favoring USA cold). This is not dissimilar to analogs for this season such as 1976-77 and 2003-04 among other years that featured a warm December and then frigid January and February. I agree that the switch will be more gradual than abrupt, but I think the cold will really start to set in before the start of 2015. In the extended range, we're starting to see signs of our first true sudden stratosphere warming event in the model guidance. Those who enjoy warmth should enjoy it while it lasts.
Very good post. There are several things coming together that not only indicate a harsh winter , but a lengthy one one as well. We may even have our " January Thaw " and then several rounds of serious winter storms. If the current Nino like conditions remain as they are , it will likely mean more intense storms for the U.S. If the trend is toward a more traditional type of Nino , than we will still have a stormy winter , but probably less in the way of severe winter conditions. With that being said , the real severe threat would hinge on two things , Negative NAO and Negative AO..The Negative AO being more important. Last year , the NAO was positive almost the whole winter , but the U.S. was affected by large bitter cold air masses , mostly because of the amplitude of the polar jet and cross polar flow. What happens this year will likely be pinned down better within the next couple weeks.
Quoting barbamz:
Very last thing for tonight (OT) from Fogo (Cape Verde Islands) where the lava just has destroyed a village:



Here another one.
Just one more reason you shouldn't build a village near an active volcano...

I'm surprised all those building entombed in the lava either weren't crushed or burned down by the lava flow. I guess it cooled off and slowed down just enough that the lava could still surround the structures without otherwise destroying them. Kind of spooky looking at them.
Fine New Guys...

Personally I would never surf HMB. IMO, there are many better alternatives if you need that big wave fix. Just an opinion.

Quoting 39. sar2401:

LOL. It happens every time we get these big Alaskan lows. The state park lifeguards will be busy again. Thankfully, HMB was outside my jurisdiction, but I remember talking to them and having them complain about all the FNG's they had to rescue in big years.
Quoting 84. hydrus:

Very good post. There are several things coming together that not only indicate a harsh winter , but a lengthy one one as well. We may even have our " January Thaw " and then several rounds of serious winter storms. If the current Nino like conditions remain as they are , it will likely mean more intense storms for the U.S. If the trend is toward a more traditional type of Nino , than we will still have a stormy winter , but probably less in the way of severe winter conditions. With that being said , the real severe threat would hinge on two things , Negative NAO and Negative AO..The Negative AO being more important. Last year , the NAO was positive almost the whole winter , but the U.S. was affected by large bitter cold air masses , mostly because of the amplitude of the polar jet and cross polar flow. What happens this year will likely be pinned down better within the next couple weeks.

Good point. And there's actually a way we can predict the predominant AO phase at least a few months in advance--Siberia snow event. When snow across this region is above average during October, that tends to favor a negative AO for the preceding winter, with its implications usually manifesting themselves during January. For this year in particular, October had the 2nd highest snow extent on record, behind 1976. When snowfall is above average across Siberia, cooler air (which is more dense) due to the snowfall tends to promote the development of high pressure. With this, the amount of heat being transferred from the troposphere to the stratosphere increases and the stratospheric portion of the polar vortex is weakened, leading to above-average heights across the Arctic and a "meandering" of the jet stream that can subsequently lead to below-average heights and cold across the United States. The pattern of above-average heights across the Arctic and lower heights farther south is a clear indication of a negative AO.

This was posted by WSI a few days ago:

@WSI_Energy Dec 2
Our new ENSO atmospheric index analogs likes the idea for a negative DJF Arctic Oscillation.

Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good point. And there's actually a way we can predict the predominant AO phase at least a few months in advance--Siberia snow event. When snow across this region is above average during October, that tends to favor a negative AO for the preceding winter, with its implications usually manifesting themselves during January. For this year in particular, October had the 2nd highest snow extent on record, behind 1976. When snowfall is above average across Siberia, cooler air (which is more dense) due to the snowfall tends to promote the development of high pressure. With this, the amount of heat being transferred from the troposphere to the stratosphere increases and the stratospheric portion of the polar vortex is weakened, leading to above-average heights across the Arctic and a "meandering" of the jet stream that can subsequently lead to below-average heights and cold across the United States. The pattern of above-average heights across the Arctic and lower heights farther south is a clear indication of a negative AO.

This was posted by WSI a few days ago:

@WSI_Energy Dec 2
Our new ENSO atmospheric index analogs likes the idea for a negative DJF Arctic Oscillation.


This link explains the difference between polar vortex " splitting " and vortex " displacement " It also mentions that SSW does not occur every winter , but around 60% of the time does indeed show up for the amount of time needed to be considered an actual SSW event....Link
Nice week coming up for West Palm Beach area...

re post 81 sar: couldn't agree more.
Quoting 70. barbamz:

In central Germany this Sunday wasn't a day to sit in front of your screen. First sunshine since many days as we were captured in an inversional weather situation (beneath quite cold and foggy airmasses, aloft warmer and clear ones), so it was mandatory to walk outside to catch some sunrays for your pale skin and dump mood. In the evening a little rain front came in. Here a little video I took after sunset from the opposite banks of Rhine River in a little open air (!) bar (few visitors though) with view to the skyline of the historic town of Mainz. To the right (north) you see the clouds coming in.



Meanwhile in other regions of Europe:

Still very unsettled weather with an unusual lot of (severe) thunderstorms in the Mediterranean (central and east now). Some parts more to the north still have to deal with crazy ice rain and rime in higher regions, here a pic from Slovenia:


Source.

Later on in the new week it's going to be interesting for the northwestern parts of Europe:


ECMWF wind map (850 hPa) for tomorrow, Monday.


Tuesday: "Bombogenesis" south of Greenland and Iceland.


Wednesday: Full force into the British Isles.


Thursday: a marginal stormy low (in German: "Schnelllaeufer" = "quickrunner" - how is it called in English?) at the southern side of the low is developing.


Friday: This "quickrunner" windstorm is going to blow away the residual leaves on German trees. Hope I got this right, meteorologically, lol. Source.

Especially the hight of the waves hitting the western coasts of the British Isles will be remarkable! You may look forward to a follow up of those epic surf videos the European WU members posted last winter ;-)



Source: WU.

Good night, and a good start into the new week as well!


Ein Schnellläufer ist ein kräftiges Randtief. Or in English, like a strong secondary low system
Quoting Drakoen:

GS-05 Grade Level
Must have completed at least 4
academic years
of post-high school leading to a bachelor's degree or
equivalent degree
. (NOTE: One year of full-time academic study is
defined as 120 semester hours, 180 quarter hours, or the equivalent in a
college or university.)


I only have 66 undergraduate credits. :(

Two more years to go then, I suppose!
GS-05? That's dreadful considering the college degree requirement. Glad I'm not a civilian.
Tropical Storm Hagupit continues to weaken over the Philippines, and it appears that the combination of moderately easterly shear, dry air from the South China Sea, and conveniently-timed eyewall replacement cycles prevented what could have been a major catastrophe. While there's been loss of life, and that's unfortunate, the death toll is extremely unlikely to approach the numbers typhoons Haiyan and Bopha accumulated.

After 8,000 deaths from tropical cyclones during the past 3 years alone, I think it's safe to say they deserve a break.

The ENSO struggles continue. Southern Oscillation Index is holding steady with not much change in the ENSO regions, with even some slight cooling evident once again.


I seriously wish it would just make up its mind already...

Also, any schools to recommend to visit? I'm planning on making a couple college visits to campuses in the Spring.
Keep in mind, I am in Texas, so it has to be within a reasonable distance.
My first choice is Texas A&M, with Oklahoma University as my number two.
Quoting 101. TylerStanfield:

Also, any schools to recommend to visit? I'm planning on making a couple college visits to campuses in the Spring.
Keep in mind, I am in Texas, so it has to be within a reasonable distance.
My first choice is Texas A&M, with Oklahoma University as my number two.

NCSU. :)
Quoting 101. TylerStanfield:
Also, any schools to recommend to visit? I'm planning on making a couple college visits to campuses in the Spring.
Keep in mind, I am in Texas, so it has to be within a reasonable distance.
My first choice is Texas A&M, with Oklahoma University as my number two.


FSU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

NCSU. :)


I always wanted to go to ECU because I heard they do storm chases on the Outer Banks.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
GS-05? That's dreadful considering the college degree requirement. Glad I'm not a civilian.
Hey! It's the step 10 salary for GS-05. $15 an hour is more than you can get at McDonald's flipping burgers. Oh, wait...Maybe I spoke too soon.

It really is dreadful, but that's one of the benefits you have when you're a monopoly. The NWS is about the only game in town for someone with a newly minted degree in meteorology.
There's also aviation and TV. And don't forget military!
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Also, any schools to recommend to visit? I'm planning on making a couple college visits to campuses in the Spring.
Keep in mind, I am in Texas, so it has to be within a reasonable distance.
My first choice is Texas A&M, with Oklahoma University as my number two.
I don't know if this meets your distance requirements but the University of Alabama has a respected atmospheric sciences department and offers degrees from the bachelor level through PhD. They also do quite a bit of work for NASA and NOAA that might give you a better inside track than some schools.
Quoting 101. TylerStanfield:

Also, any schools to recommend to visit? I'm planning on making a couple college visits to campuses in the Spring.
Keep in mind, I am in Texas, so it has to be within a reasonable distance.
My first choice is Texas A&M, with Oklahoma University as my number two.

I think those two schools are your best options given your location.
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Hey! It's the step 10 salary for GS-05. $15 an hour is more than you can get at McDonald's flipping burgers. Oh, wait...Maybe I spoke too soon.

It really is dreadful, but that's one of the benefits you have when you're a monopoly. The NWS is about the only game in town for someone with a newly minted degree in meteorology.


No one becomes a meteorology major because they expect to get rich.

If you stop at the B.S. in meteorology your options will be limited to NWS or becoming a broadcast meteorologist. Unless of course you know programming, then a lot more door$ open up for you.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
There's also aviation and TV. And don't forget military!
Yeah, but it's almost impossible to get into aviation or TV forecasting without having at least some time with the NWS. The military is a very viable alternative. Both the Air Force and Navy have large weather services. I assume the Army does as well but I'm just not familiar with them. A met degree offers immediate entry as a second Lieutenant in the Air Force and assignment into some pretty responsible forecasting positions within a few years if you're good. My atmospheric science major nephew is being pursued by an Air Force recruiter right now. If even half his promises come true, it's not a bad way for a young single lad to break into the profession.
Depending on your goals, probably a big difference in pursuing a degree or degrees in "Atmospheric Sciences" vs. a degree or degrees in Meteorology. Tyler knows that, I'm sure.
Quoting 110. Drakoen:



No one becomes a meteorology major because they expect to get rich.

If you stop at the B.S. in meteorology your options will be limited to NWS or becoming a broadcast meteorologist. Unless of course you know programming, then a lot more door$ open up for you.
NWS is always something I've always preferred to do over anything else anyway.

Although I plan to go as far as possible with my education, just in case. As you say, doors open.
Quoting Drakoen:


No one becomes a meteorology major because they expect to get rich.

If you stop at the B.S. in meteorology your options will be limited to NWS or becoming a broadcast meteorologist. Unless of course you know programming, then a lot more door$ open up for you.
No, they don't, and the love of the field is one of the things that keeps wages down. When there are a dozen or more young grads fighting for every position, the NWS doesn't have to offer big money. The programming thing is a big deal. Even though my degree is in business administration, I was lucky enough to go to a school that believed, in 1974, that what were then called micro computers were the wave of the future and everyone would have a computer on their desk. I made way more money with my programming skills than I ever would have just being a good administrator.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Hagupit continues to weaken over the Philippines, and it appears that the combination of moderately easterly shear, dry air from the South China Sea, and conveniently-timed eyewall replacement cycles prevented what could have been a major catastrophe. While there's been loss of life, and that's unfortunate, the death toll is extremely unlikely to approach the numbers typhoons Haiyan and Bopha accumulated.

After 8,000 deaths from tropical cyclones during the past 3 years alone, I think it's safe to say they deserve a break.


Yes, I imagine there were more than a few prayers in the Philippines this morning thanking the Lord for dry air and shear. It's always nice to see what could have been a disaster turn into something that, while still bad, is at least manageable. As you say, they really do deserve a break with at least one storm. Now we'll watch what happens as the remains of Hagupit get wrapped up in the polar jet and wreck a few 10 day forecasts. :-)
Quoting 114. sar2401:

No, they don't, and the love of the field is one of the things that keeps wages down. When there are a dozen or more young grads fighting for every position, the NWS doesn't have to offer big money. The programming thing is a big deal. Even though my degree is in business administration, I was lucky enough to go to a school that believed, in 1974, that what were then called micro computers were the wave of the future and everyone would have a computer on their desk. I made way more money with my programming skills than I ever would have just being a good administrator.


Indeed. There are many high paying CS jobs and you can get them in an field of study that interests you. It's a shame that their aren't more jobs at that level and that the pay is lackluster (in reference to meteorology).
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Fine New Guys...

Personally I would never surf HMB. IMO, there are many better alternatives if you need that big wave fix. Just an opinion.


Yeah, that's it. :-) I'm not a surfer, so I only know what the guys who ride tell me but , if you're a California surfer, riding the big ones at Maverick from a giant Alaskan low are one of the things a California surfer kid dreams of. It's kind of like free diving for abalone. Either you love it or hate it. I don't like free diving in the (normally) 49 degree water for something that, no matter how you cook it, still tastes like the bottom of a sneaker either...
Lessons were learned from Haiyan. Although this one was not near as strong, only one death so far is a miracle.
I cannot match one dollar/euro for every donation (like Dr Jeff), but we have no administration. I have built 103 houses to date in devastated area, and are hoping to build another 50 in the new year. A like or share of Our Latest Appeal would be much appreciated. I hope this is okay with our moderators. I am not selling anything.
Quoting 114. sar2401:

No, they don't, and the love of the field is one of the things that keeps wages down. When there are a dozen or more young grads fighting for every position, the NWS doesn't have to offer big money. The programming thing is a big deal. Even though my degree is in business administration, I was lucky enough to go to a school that believed, in 1974, that what were then called micro computers were the wave of the future and everyone would have a computer on their desk. I made way more money with my programming skills than I ever would have just being a good administrator.


What about GIS? That's what I'm going into, but it's in the pain in the behind to always have to explain to everyone what the hell it even is (google it so i don't have to)! I mean, surely i can use GIS for making weather maps! I went with a B.A. because i was still in Spanish (which speaking it is a big plus)but i might go for a master's ad well. Actually, the NWS in St. Louis just started using them to replace the digital forecast database. The NHC created shapefiles for all past advisories as well.
Quoting 117. sar2401:


Yeah, that's it. :-) I'm not a surfer, so I only know what the guys who ride tell me but , if you're a California surfer, riding the big ones at Maverick from a giant Alaskan low are one of the things a California surfer kid dreams of. It's kind of like free diving for abalone. Either you love it or hate it. I don't like free diving in the (normally) 49 degree water for something that, no matter how you cook it, still tastes like the bottom of a sneaker either...


I've been wanting to surf for some time, but the last time i even went to a beach was August 2005 in Hilton Head Island. Imagine surfing the waves churned up by Hurricane Marie! That would be insane!
Quoting Drakoen:


Indeed. There are many high paying CS jobs and you can get them in an field of study that interests you. It's a shame that their aren't more jobs at that level and that the pay is lackluster (in reference to meteorology).
Yes, and that's really a policy decision that needs to be made. We have all these bright young people with met degrees, many of whom also have programming skills, feverishly looking for a forecasting internship. At the same time, our "national" weather modeling system, the GFS, is clearly falling behind the Euro and will soon be no better that the Canadian. There's a disconnect there if some people at much higher pay grades can only see it and act.
Quoting 118. Caimito:

Lessons were learned from Haiyan. Although this one was not near as strong, only one death so far is a miracle.
I cannot match one dollar/euro for every donation (like Dr Jeff), but we have no administration. I have built 103 houses to date in devastated area, and are hoping to build another 50 in the new year. A like or share of Our Latest Appeal would be much appreciated. I hope this is okay with our moderators. I am not selling anything.


Good job Caimito. Thanks to people like you, they're on their way to recovering a little more quickly. :)

Quoting 119. TimTheWxMan:



What about GIS? That's what I'm going into, but it's in the pain in the behind to always have to explain to everyone what the hell it even is (google it so i don't have to)! I mean, surely i can use GIS for making weather maps! I went with a B.A. because i was still in Spanish (which speaking it is a big plus)but i might go for a master's ad well. Actually, the NWS in St. Louis just started using them to replace the digital forecast database. The NHC created shapefiles for all past advisories as well.
People don't know what GIS is?
Quoting 121. sar2401:

Yes, and that's really a policy decision that needs to be made. We have all these bright young people with met degrees, many of whom also have programming skills, feverishly looking for a forecasting internship. At the same time, our "national" weather modeling system, the GFS, is clearly falling behind the Euro and will soon be no better that the Canadian. There's a disconnect there if some people at much higher pay grades can only see it and act.


I agree. Recent examples are Sandy and Hagupit. Which was more accurate in forecasting their paths? The Euro.
Quoting 123. KoritheMan:


People don't know what GIS is?



A lot of my friends and family aren't geography majors, so yeah. :(

Only my friends who are geography majors, my parents, uncle, aunt and cousin know what GIS is.
Well, I'm off to bed! It's finals week. Nighty night!
Quoting 121. sar2401:

Yes, and that's really a policy decision that needs to be made. We have all these bright young people with met degrees, many of whom also have programming skills, feverishly looking for a forecasting internship. At the same time, our "national" weather modeling system, the GFS, is clearly falling behind the Euro and will soon be no better that the Canadian. There's a disconnect there if some people at much higher pay grades can only see it and act.


Concepts involving modeling probably involve Master's level courses, but certainly there is still room for people with B.S. degrees with programming knowledge. The GFS sucks because their is no dedicated team that focuses solely on improving that model. NCEP has the NAM, HRRR, SREF, etc models that they have to worry about in addition to the GFS. The ECMWF only focuses on the ECMWF. I hear the ECMWF will be getting an upgrade soon with a spatial resolution that will be lower than the NAM.
Quoting Caimito:
Lessons were learned from Haiyan. Although this one was not near as strong, only one death so far is a miracle.
I cannot match one dollar/euro for every donation (like Dr Jeff), but we have no administration. I have built 103 houses to date in devastated area, and are hoping to build another 50 in the new year. A like or share of Our Latest Appeal would be much appreciated. I hope this is okay with our moderators. I am not selling anything.
I can't imagine that your link would be a problem. A complete house for 300 Euros is quite an accomplishment. I looked at your link but I can't find how I'm supposed to donate. Are you using PayPal or what?

Quoting 125. TimTheWxMan:



A lot of my friends and family aren't geography majors, so yeah. :(

Only my friends who are geography majors, my parents, uncle, aunt and cousin know what GIS is.
I'm not a geography major and I know what is.

What does that make me?
Quoting 129. KoritheMan:


I'm not a geography major and I know what is.

What does that make me?



A non-geography major friend who didn't need to google what GIS is. :O)
Quoting 122. TimTheWxMan:



Good job Caimito. Thanks to people like you, they're on their way to recovering a little more quickly. :)
Thank you. To be honest Tim, almost anybody would do the same, if they went where I went, and saw what I saw. Photo and accounts go little way in showing the poverty.
BTW: A Caimito is a fruit from a Caimito Tree. The English for Caimito is Star Apple. When you cut the fruit in half, it look like a Star.

Quoting 130. TimTheWxMan:



A non-geography major friend who didn't need to google what GIS is. :O)
I'm sexy, Timothy. Get it right.
Quoting Drakoen:


Concepts involving modeling probably involve Master's level courses, but certainly there is still room for people with B.S. degrees with programming knowledge. The GFS sucks because their is no dedicated team that focuses solely on improving that model. NCEP has the NAM, HRRR, SREF, etc models that they have to worry about in addition to the GFS. The ECMWF only focuses on the ECMWF. I hear the ECMWF will be getting an upgrade soon with a spatial resolution that will be lower than the NAM.
I will say, at the risk of offending some of my progressive friends, that the ECMWF is the result of a public-private partnership that has been paying its own way once the initial funding went in back in 1975. The ECMWF is funding the upgrade from the profits made by selling their forecasts to businesses, US TV meteorologists being some of the important customers. When you're the "World leader in global medium-range numerical weather prediction" (a rather direct slap at the GFS, I do believe), businesses will pay you for your forecasting skill. All this from the EU, not generally known as a bastion of free enterprise. We even had a chance to be one of the founding member states, but we apparently believed we could build a better mousetrap. Now I'm trying to think of a sales pitch that would make people pay to see it.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm not a geography major and I know what is.

What does that make me?
That makes you...umm...er...unusual. :-)

Quoting 134. sar2401:

That makes you...umm...er...unusual. :-)
Thanks, but everyone here knows that already. :)
Quoting 128. sar2401:

I can't imagine that your link would be a problem. A complete house for 300 Euros is quite an accomplishment. I looked at your link but I can't find how I'm supposed to donate. Are you using PayPal or what?
Thank you sar. We had paypal (we we actually still have) but they take some much, with commission and then exchange etc.. At this time pledges are fine. We don't expect to start the next project until March. All donations will be published this time, and those wishing to remain anonymous will be published a Joe/Jane Doe with City. Everything is totally transparent . Private message in FB for details or email pascal(AT)starapple.ph
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm not a geography major and I know what is.

What does that make me?

That makes you...umm...er...unusual. :-)
Everybody loves me.

I can't be hated.
Beautiful day here in Southern Leyte: My PWS
Not too hot but nice and sunny
We're making progress here with the Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign


Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign

The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season: for each dollar donated between now and Monday, I pledge to make a matching donation.


Jeff Masters

Quoting Caimito:
Thank you sar. We had paypal (we we actually still have) but they take some much, with commission and then exchange etc.. At this time pledges are fine. We don't expect to start the next project until March. All donations will be published this time, and those wishing to remain anonymous will be published a Joe/Jane Doe with City. Everything is totally transparent . Private message in FB for details or email pascal(AT)starapple.ph
Thanks, Pascal. I don't do FB so I will send you an email. I assume you will accept a check (cheque) in real money ($USD) instead of those fake Euros...:-)
Quoting Caimito:
Beautiful day here in Southern Leyte: My PWS
Not too hot but nice and sunny
Your PWS surviving is testimony to the fact Hagupit, while a much feared monster, has turned out be more of a misbehaving puppy instead. That's good to see. I'm not treating what I'm sure will still be deaths and destruction from the storm lightly, only that us even being able to correspond today was much better result than what I feared would happen even a day ago.
Quoting 141. sar2401:

I don't do FB
You mean you don't want to hear about how someone learned to breathe today without exhaling carbon dioxide?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Everybody loves me.

I can't be hated.
So true.

So, what's your outlook for the 2015 hurricane season? If we get a real El Nino, the chances aren't too good for us to get in a chase. This year was certainly a disappointment. I really thought October would bring us at least a minor tropical storm in the Gulf that we could hype up but, alas, the few lows that did form in the Gulf either went west instead of east or onshore instead of offshore. Strange year.
Quoting KoritheMan:
You mean you don't want to hear about how someone learned to breathe today without exhaling carbon dioxide?
LOL. My fiance loves FB, which has become a major point of contention in our relationship. As much as she doesn't want to hear me drone on about weather or have to hear the "static" from my ham radios, I equally don't want to hear about someone I don't know who got a new puppy or the latest about some other person I don't know from that show American Idol. {Sigh}....

Quoting 144. sar2401:

So true.

So, what's your outlook for the 2015 hurricane season? If we get a real El Nino, the chances aren't too good for us to get in a chase. This year was certainly a disappointment. I really thought October would bring us at least a minor tropical storm in the Gulf that we could hype up but, alas, the few lows that did form in the Gulf either went west instead of east or onshore instead of offshore. Strange year.
I dislike model predictions that far out... even when we're referring to models designed specifically for that purpose (and yes that includes the impacts of climate change on the Earth, but I digress). Honestly, using climatology as an indicator is probably just as accurate, and potentially far less risky.

I'm not sure what we'll get yet ENSO wise. Hopefully we'll get a chase because 2015 will probably be the last year I'm home before going to the military. Although I wouldn't complain if they stationed me at Pensacola NAS or something; anywhere that's hurricane prone. Those bases are resilient so I have nothing to fear anyways. :P
Quoting 138. KoritheMan:

Everybody loves me.

I can't be hated.



Who said that?

Quoting 145. sar2401:

LOL. My fiance loves FB, which has become a major point of contention in our relationship. As much as she doesn't want to hear me drone on about weather or have to hear the "static" from my ham radios, I equally don't want to hear about someone I don't know who got a new puppy or the latest about some other person I don't know from that show American Idol. {Sigh}....
I can't say I don't proliferate the stereotype I mentioned in my post, though. It's fun, especially when I have a knack for saying off the wall stuff that pisses people off. ;)

Quoting 147. wxgeek723:



Who said that?
Not you.
I was just testing something.
Morning, Andre. You're up awfully late.
Quoting 141. sar2401:

Thanks, Pascal. I don't do FB so I will send you an email.
Ha ha. To FB or not to FB, that is the question. Email will do fine. Thank you
Quoting 145. sar2401:

LOL. My fiance loves FB, which has become a major point of contention in our relationship. As much as she doesn't want to hear me drone on about weather or have to hear the "static" from my ham radios, I equally don't want to hear about someone I don't know who got a new puppy or the latest about some other person I don't know from that show American Idol. {Sigh}....
So Marry her then ....
Quoting KoritheMan:
Morning, Andre. You're up awfully late.
Asst sensei, I'm staying home from school today because I am sick.

Quoting 159. Andrebrooks:

Asst sensei, I'm staying home from school today because I am sick.
Get better, man!
Two days this week with highs only in the 60s here in Fort Myers. Then we get back up in the 70s for the end of the week.
Low in the 40s for a couple nights too.

7 day for Fort Myers Fl.

Good morning. Close and very wet call for Manila with Hagupit-Ruby:





Typhoon Hagupit kills 21 on Samar island - Philippine Red Cross
Updated: Monday December 8, 2014 MYT 3:15:12 PM
MANILA (Reuters) - At least 21 people were reported dead, many of them drowned as flood waters rose in Borongan, the main town in Eastern Samar, where typhoon Hagupit made first landfall, the Philippine National Red Cross said on Monday.
The Philippines had evacuated more than a million people as the powerful typhoon approached the country from the Pacific, fearing a repeat of a super storm last year that left more than 7,000 dead or missing.
"We have confirmed reports that 21 people died in Eastern Samar, 16 of them in Borongan," said Gwendolyn Pang, secretary-general of the Philippine National Red Cross.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council in Manila confirmed only two dead and three injured. Two others were reported killed outside Samar, the third largest island in the Philippines, since Hagupit hit on Saturday night.
(Reporting By Manuel Mogato; Editing by Alex Richardson)

----------------------------

Meanwhile the development of the North Atlantic storm has started:



This track takes Hagupit directly over Mount Pinatubo. Hopefully, the ash from the 1991 eruption will have consolidated enough that the rain won't cause lahars.

Cold air centered over Florida mid week. Temperatures running about 10-15 degrees below normal.
But once this cool air moves out towards the end of the week, the GFS is showing above average temperatures for the eastern half of the U.S. all the way to December 24th.

Wednesday with the cold air centered over Florida.


By Saturday, warm air builds in across all but Florida, which is still a little below average.
December 18th, no below average temperatures to be found across most of the U.S.
I think we're probably in for a massive invasion of Arctic air whenever it does decide to plunge down into the U.S.
Added .17" of rain last night here in Longwood with now 62" so far this year.


A rainy, dreary morning here in Tampa. Hopefully we start to see some sunshine soon as the weekend was pretty dreary with overcast skies and fog as well.
The jet stream loops are reaching pretty far South these days -- last night it got down to 15.5C, about 61F, here in the tropics of Costa Rica, along with almost 2 more inches of rain and another earthquake, 6.6 this time. I'm ready for a day or two of sunshine with calmer and warmer conditions!
Quoting 171. CaneFreeCR:

The jet stream loops are reaching pretty far South these days -- last night it got down to 15.5C, about 61F, here in the tropics of Costa Rica, along with almost 2 more inches of rain. I'm ready for a day or two of sunshine and warmer conditions!


Ye[ here is the Canadian precip accums thru day 10. Most of this rain over FL occurs from day 8 thur 10 as a upper low slowly moves toward FL. Euro is showing something similar.




Here is the Euro during this same time frame. It's almost as if the Dry Season is non existent this year here in E C FL as we just keep piling on the rain.


MattRogers
7:46 AM EST
Yeah some modeling is suggesting we shift back to a more constructively cold pattern by around Christmas week.
Quoting 173. washingtonian115:


MattRogers
7:46 AM EST
Yeah some modeling is suggesting we shift back to a more constructively cold pattern by around Christmas week.



Yeah I see that on the Euro & Canadian Ensembles this morning.
CMC has low 30's for most of FL
oh cares about FL wet weather thats nothing new the big news is CA will be getting a vary wet storm and big time flooding all so vary high winds has we are going too be getting a vary powerfull storm a lot of area could see 5 to 12" of rain in 24hr time wish is a tone of rain all so are power could go out due to high winds all so there are high wind watchs and winter storm watchs all ready up for this event
Quoting 176. Tazmanian:

oh cares about FL wet weather thats nothing new the big news is CA will be getting a vary wet storm and big time flooding all so vary high winds has we are going too be getting a vary powerfull storm a lot of area could see 5 to 12" of rain in 24hr time wish is a tone of rain all so are power could go out due to high winds all so there are high wind watchs and winter storm watchs all ready up for this event


What Taz? That whopping drenching that Central Fl got last night doesn't excite you? LOL! Good to see California getting much needed rains. A long way to go but it is a start.
Quoting luvtogolf:


What Taz? That whopping drenching that Central Fl got last night doesn't excite you? LOL! Good to see California getting much needed rains. A long way to go but it is a start.


whopping drenching is nothing new same old same old weather for FL now seeing a nic powerfull storm for CA is some in new with high winds
Quoting 168. tampabaymatt:



A rainy, dreary morning here in Tampa. Hopefully we start to see some sunshine soon as the weekend was pretty dreary with overcast skies and fog as well.


It has been a dreary morning. But I am loving those temps for the rest of the week! Beautiful December weather!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 104. StormTrackerScott:



FSU
UOF is good too....For future Mets anyway...MJO looks like it will peter out before getting here..AO , NAO , Nuthin....Yet....

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
CMC has low 30's for most of FL
Not. Gonna. Happen.
Quoting 182. Neapolitan:

Not. Gonna. Happen.


33 for Orlando and Miami. You are right. Not gonna happen. Not close.
Quoting 103. BaltimoreBrian:

Those sound like reasonable choices, Tyler. What about Texas Tech?

Tech isn't out of the question, but I haven't researched much into them.

Quoting 102. TropicalAnalystwx13:


NCSU. :)

Ha, that's cute, but nice try! My family would have a cow if that thought I was moving to North Carolina for college.

Quoting 109. Drakoen:


I think those two schools are your best options given your location.

I've been told both have very solid programs, and they accomadate my location too.

Thanks for your feedback and I'll be sure to check out the colleges that were suggested.
Quoting 35. sar2401:

[...]
I believe that Pineapple Connection is also starting, and a month from now, the news from California won't be the drought.
[...]

Short-term relief at best.