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The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends With Below-Average Activity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:36 PM GMT on December 01, 2014

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially in the books, ending up with below average activity--8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) that was 63% of the 1981 - 2010 median. The 2014 numbers were below the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, and way below the averages from the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. The death and damage statistics for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season were gratifyingly low: there were only five deaths (four from Hurricane Gonzalo in the Lesser Antilles and one from Tropical Storm Dolly in Mexico), and total damages from all storms were less than $500 million. The quiet season was due to an atmospheric circulation that favored dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and high wind shear over the Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures were also near-average--considerably cooler than what we've gotten used to since the active hurricane period that began in 1995.


Figure 1. Tracking chart for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NHC.

Some notable facts from the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, as provided by Philip Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State:

- For the ninth consecutive year, no major hurricanes hit the U.S., marking the first time since records began in 1851 the U.S. has gone that long without a Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting. The previous record was eight years, set in 1861 - 1868. Wilma of 2005 was the last major hurricane to hit the U.S., and was also the last hurricane to hit Florida.

- For the ninth consecutive year, Florida went without a hurricane strike. This is Florida's longest hurricane-free stretch since records began in 1851. The previous longest hurricane-free streak in Florida was five years, set in 1980 - 1984.

- Arthur was the strongest storm (Category 2 at landfall) to hit the U.S. since Hurricane Ike (also Category 2 at landfall) in 2008.

- Strongest hurricane: Hurricane Gonzalo, 145 mph winds, 940 mb pressure.

- Most damaging hurricane: Hurricane Gonzalo, $200 - $400 million damage in Bermuda.

- Longest-lived named storm: Edouard, 7.75 days as a named storm.

- The eight named storms were the fewest since 1997.

- Vertical wind shear (200-850-mb) during July-September in the Caribbean (10-20°N, 90-60°W) was 11.3 meters per second, which was the strongest since 1986 (11.6 meters per second).

- More ACE was accrued during October (30 units) than during August and September combined (29 units). The last time that this happened was 1963.

- The pre-season forecasts made by the major forecast groups at NOAA, Colorado State, TSR, Penn State, Florida State, WSI, the UKMET office, and NC State all did well. These forecasts called for a near-average to below-average Atlantic hurricane season.


Figure 2. Hurricane Gonzalo as seen from the International Space Station on October 16, 2014. At the time, Gonzalo was at peak strength, with 145 mph winds. Gonzalo was the first Atlantic hurricane to reach sustained winds of at least 145 mph since Hurricane Igor of 2010, and made it all the way to 50.7°N latitude as a hurricane, which is the farthest north a hurricane has made it since Hurricane Debby of 1982 (50.8°N.) Its remnants battered the United Kingdom on October 21 with wind gusts exceeding 100 mph, and killed three people there. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.

Tropical Storm Hagupit forms in the Western Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, typhoon season is still in swing, as Tropical Storm Hagupit has formed about 1500 miles east of the Philippines. Hagupit is expected to take advantage of very warm waters and low wind shear to intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon later this week. Hagupit may be a threat to the Philippines this weekend, as suggested by the 00Z Monday morning run of the European model, but the GFS model predicts that the storm will recurve to the north and miss the Philippines.

Wunderground member CycloneOz has put together a 15-minute YouTube animation of all of the IR satellite imagery from the Atlantic this hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting hydrus:
Its a hunch , but the Mets will have a better idea of what this winter has in store for North America by Mid December.
It sure looks like it's going to remain at or above normal for temperatures and almost no rain in the next 10 days in south Alabama. The high today was an exceptional 83 degrees. Eufaula doesn't have an official observing station. The closest station is Dothan, about 50 miles south, which shows a record high for today of 78 degrees, so the temperature here would be record breaking...if we had records. :-) We have gone from winter last week into summer this week. My experience has been that a consistently warm December does not set the stage for a cold January. We should be seeing cold and wet for January to follow suit. We'll see how the last half of the month looks but I'm not too keen about seeing a cold winter, at least for January.
The next time a denier brings up that ring of fresh water pouring off Antarctica , floating on top of the ocean , and freezing at a much warmer temperature than sea water. (32F vs 26F) .

There is new paper -


West Antarctic melt rate has tripled

2 December 2014
Joint Release

WASHINGTON, D.C. – A comprehensive, 21-year analysis of the fastest-melting region of Antarctica has found that the melt rate of glaciers there has tripled during the last decade.

The glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica are hemorrhaging ice faster than any other part of Antarctica and are the most significant Antarctic contributors to sea level rise. This study by scientists at the University of California, Irvine (UCI), and NASA is the first to evaluate and reconcile observations from four different measurement techniques to produce an authoritative estimate of the amount and the rate of loss over the last two decades.

“The mass loss of these glaciers is increasing at an amazing rate,” said scientist Isabella Velicogna, jointly of UCI and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. Velicogna is a coauthor of a paper on the results, which has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

Link
505. Siker
Quoting sar2401:
It sure looks like it's going to remain at or above normal for temperatures and almost no rain in the next 10 days in south Alabama. The high today was an exceptional 83 degrees. Eufaula doesn't have an official observing station. The closest station is Dothan, about 50 miles south, which shows a record high for today of 78 degrees, so the temperature here would be record breaking...if we had records. :-) We have gone from winter last week into summer this week. My experience has been that a consistently warm December does not set the stage for a cold January. We should be seeing cold and wet for January to follow suit. We'll see how the last half of the month looks but I'm not too keen about seeing a cold winter, at least for January.


Webberweather made a great post on another forum earlier about analog years to this one. He showed that years with a Niño, +PDO, and other similar traits average warmer than normal Decembers for most of the country, including the Southeast, but have cold January's and even colder February's for the Southeast.
Quoting 495. TimSoCal:



Nearest "official" station to me (Van Nuys) is up to 1.08 today. Not bad at all.

Not too shabby and it is still going. They were saying 1-5 the other day. Mostly not happening here (yet).
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


Except there is growing evidence that they have already cut down enough trees to change the water pump that the Amazon used to provide.

Brazil: Amazon Deforestation Increases for First Time in Ten Years [PHOTO REPORT]

A large part of the country faces a third year of drought, thought to be caused partly by deforestation of the Amazon, which is altering the climate in the region by drastically reducing the release of billions of litres of water by rainforest trees.

According to Brazil's National Space Research Institute, deforestation causes a dramatic decrease in the humidity that comes from the Amazon in the form of vapour clouds, drying up key reservoirs in Sao Paulo and neighbouring states.

About 20 billion tonnes of vapour evaporate from the Amazon region every day. A big Amazonian tree, with a crown measuring 20 metres, can evaporate up to 300 litres a day, compared with one litre evaporated by a square meter of ocean, according to the Space Research Institute.


Link
The money contributed by Norway (and a lot of other countries) was used by the Brazilian government to increase police and army patrols and aerial surveillance. It was working until this year, when we saw this big increase in illegal logging. The question for the people in charge is how did this occur? It's not like those industrial loggers are doing this in the middle of the night. Clearly, there are people in power who are back on the take. That's why other nations that are contributing money to Brazil need to stop until such time as the Brazilian government is hurt more by these contributions being stopped than they make while allowing illegal logging.

Looks like I am getting more of the storm now, not so much edge.
I peeked outside and it is coming down much better. It was much lighter earlier when I drove across town.
Quoting Siker:


Webberweather made a great post on another forum earlier about analog years to this one. He showed that years with a Niño, +PDO, and other similar traits average warmer than normal Decembers for most of the country, including the Southeast, but have cold January's and even colder February's for the Southeast.
I read that. There is some dispute about a warm December being too much to overcome in January, although February does end up much colder on average. It seems that a December that remains above average in temperature for the entire month makes it difficult for systems from the north to break down the strong ridge that causes such warm temperatures. The jet stream also needs to change from zonal to meridional to allow stronger systems from the north to penetrate this far south. All that usually takes a couple of weeks at least, so any cold weather that does show up is more likely to be the last week of January, assuming it shows up at all. This all hinges on December remaining a warm month. I'm pretty confident that will be the case for the first half of December. I'm not at all confident about will happen in the last half.
www.tropicaltidbits.com IS down?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That would be like 10" in Florida.
California is getting hammered...and blasted! :-)
Works for me....
A brewing monster? Let's hope not. JTWC seems to think Hagupit will be weakening as it approaches the Philippines (100 knots by 18z December 5th) but it'll be slowing down as well as it responds to a trough to the north. The models appear to be split between two solutions: the ECMWF rams it into the Philippines, the GFS recurves it out to sea and dissipates it. My guess is a 145 knot Super Typhoon judging by the impressive satellite presentation.

Quoting Gearsts:
www.tropicaltidbits.com IS down?
Works fine for me. Since Levi is transferring everything to his new server, there will be times when there's a short outage I'm sure. Take a deep breath and check back in 10 minutes. :-)
Quoting 511. washingtonian115:




Where is this?
Quoting 490. Grothar:



Agree. I actually think they may have reached the tipping point in the Amazon a long time ago.


We've been passing tipping points like that old Commander Cody song , " Hot Rod Lincoln ".

The guy beside me was white as a ghost

It's no accident that Australia has just booked the hottest 2 springs back to back, and Britain booked the wettest winter last season . But that crazy loop this winter is beating Spain, France and North Africa, and points East in the head.
Quoting 516. PedleyCA:



Where is this?
In Washington D.C.Thomas Circle.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Political deals? They're pretty much worthless.

Technological advancements in non-CO2 emitting technologies? Absolutely...no question!

So...is this deal summit a political gathering or a technological advancement reveal?
Even though I think you're nuts about the "Everything is fine, nothing happening" meme, I have to agree with you here. These meetings are just a combination of political posturing and "victim" nations lining up to see how much money can be extracted from the developed world. We see all too many stories like this, where funds supposedly being used to help fight climate change are doing just the opposite. The lack of oversight of these funds, to which the US has contributed billions and is about to contribute billions more, is astounding. They need to have as much management and oversight as an average road project at least, and, right now, they have very little of either. I really have no objection to us contributing funds for projects that actually will affect the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, even if I have to pay higher taxes. I have a lot of objection to money disappearing down black holes or being used for purposes that have nothing to do with the goal.
Quoting 507. sar2401:

The money contributed by Norway (and a lot of other countries) was used by the Brazilian government to increase police and army patrols and aerial surveillance. It was working until this year, when we saw this big increase in illegal logging. The question for the people in charge is how did this occur? It's not like those industrial loggers are doing this in the middle of the night. Clearly, there are people in power who are back on the take. That's why other nations that are contributing money to Brazil need to stop until such time as the Brazilian government is hurt more by these contributions being stopped than they make while allowing illegal logging.


The capture of governments world wide by corporations is all around us . We are run now by groups of Putins. Just look at Canada, Australia, and the US, the rise of the carbon mafia .

The feed backs are coming much faster than they ever dreamed of.

Example one :

Australia just signed giant beef export agreement with China. Well , Australia's cattle stations are selling off cows because there is no water, and there is no feed.

And no amount of stripping the Canadian Tar Sands is going to change this.


Low still churning in showers. Development southwest of the low center on the jet forecast to whip thru later tonight early tomorrow before the low itself comes ashore.
Quoting 473. Sfloridacat5:

I've been checking a bunch of web cams in the Lake Tahoe area. Some areas are picking up some nice snow, but the rain/snow line is pretty high.
It seems to be around 7500 ft.

Here's the conditions a 7400 ft (temps above freezing). Cam shot roads were wet with snow on the grass.
Link to check out street and location cams in the Tahoe area.
Link

US-50 - South Lake Tahoe : Echo Summit
Weather Forecast as of 12:53:00 PST on 2014-12-02 :
High: 41�F
Low: 34�F
Sunrise: 07:01 PST
Sunset: 16:38 PST


Today : Rain/Snow
Tonight : Rain/Snow
Elevation : 7427 feet



The one up side to heavy wet snow (above 7500) is that it's juicy, very high water content, so good for the reservoirs when it melts.
Quoting 482. CycloneOz:

NYT: 'Human extinction possible' without climate deal ...

WASHINGTON %u2014 After more than two decades of trying but failing to forge a global pact to halt climate change, United Nations negotiators gathering in South America this week are expressing a new optimism that they may finally achieve the elusive deal.

Even with a deal to stop the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists warn, the world will become increasingly unpleasant. Without a deal, they say, the world could eventually become uninhabitable for humans.

We need a deal...or we're dead?!?!

Please pass some WUFood popcorn. Alarmist rhetoric is stuff of movies.


Ignorant, anti-science rhetoric is just as nauseating.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


The capture of governments world wide by corporations is all around us . We are run now by groups of Putins. Just look at Canada, Australia, and the US, the rise of the carbon mafia .

The feed backs are coming much faster than they ever dreamed of.

Example one :

Australia just signed giant beef export agreement with China. Well , Australia's cattle stations are selling off cows because there is no water, and there is no feed.

And no amount of stripping the Canadian Tar Sands is going to change this.
Yeah, and that kind of left wing posturing works fine when you're talking to your friends over on Scribbler's blog. For a general audience, it just makes people stop reading by the second sentence. After you're though indicting the developed countries as being part of a carbon Mafia and being run by a bunch of Putins, you want to talk about feedbacks. Your evidence is that ranchers in Australia have to sell their cows because of drought. Has that ever happened before? How many times? Why is this any different? Other than people in China getting cheaper hamburger, why should I care? What am I, just one of your average sheeples, supposed to do about it if I should care? What does any of this have to do with stripping Canadian tar sands? The people who are going "Right on!" to your post don't need to be convinced. How do you hope to influence anyone else?
Quoting 523. Naga5000:



Ignorant, anti-science rhetoric is just as nauseating.
Yep..That rainforest has been there for at least 55 million years , and humans may take it out in less than a hundred...That to me is very nauseating...
Quoting 514. CybrTeddy:

A brewing monster? Let's hope not. JTWC seems to think Hagupit will be weakening as it approaches the Philippines (100 knots by 18z December 5th) but it'll be slowing down as well as it responds to a trough to the north. The models appear to be split between two solutions: the ECMWF rams it into the Philippines, the GFS recurves it out to sea and dissipates it. My guess is a 145 knot Super Typhoon judging by the impressive satellite presentation.

That has all the right stuff for a Supertyphoon...For the next day or so anyway...
Very mild with morning fog and fair weather. 54/77 Ahhhh!
Environmentalists are concerned about loss of biodiversity that will result from destruction of the forest, and also about the release of the carbon contained within the vegetation, which could accelerate global warming. Amazonian evergreen forests account for about 10% of the world's terrestrial primary productivity and 10% of the carbon stores in ecosystems of the order of 1.1 × 1011 metric tonnes of carbon. Amazonian forests are estimated to have accumulated 0.62 ± 0.37 tons of carbon per hectare per year between 1975 and 1996.

One computer model of future climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions shows that the Amazon rainforest could become unsustainable under conditions of severely reduced rainfall and increased temperatures, leading to an almost complete loss of rainforest cover in the basin by 2100. However, simulations of Amazon basin climate change across many different models are not consistent in their estimation of any rainfall response, ranging from weak increases to strong decreases. The result indicates that the rainforest could be threatened though the 21st century by climate change in addition to deforestation.
529. Inyo
Quoting 524. sar2401:

Yeah, and that kind of left wing posturing works fine when you're talking to your friends over on Scribbler's blog. For a general audience, it just makes people stop reading by the second sentence. After you're though indicting the developed countries as being part of a carbon Mafia and being run by a bunch of Putins, you want to talk about feedbacks. Your evidence is that ranchers in Australia have to sell their cows because of drought. Has that ever happened before? How many times? Why is this any different? Other than people in China getting cheaper hamburger, why should I care? What am I, just one of your average sheeples, supposed to do about it if I should care? What does any of this have to do with stripping Canadian tar sands? The people who are going "Right on!" to your post don't need to be convinced. How do you hope to influence anyone else?


drought in Australia (or southern California or other such areas) is nothing new but the heat that has gone with it has been unprecedented, right? At least that was my understanding of the situation out there. Otherwise... storm tracks are all over the place, though of course one can always argue how much of xyz is due to natural vs human caused fluctuation. The bottom line is it is pretty well established that we as a species are having an effect on the climate, and it is probably going to be strongly to our detriment. Add in all the other problems with fossil fuels, and you have a pretty solid argument for reducing and eventually eliminating their use. is investing in new tech a better route than all these treaties? Probably... but they aren't mutually exclusive.
Quoting Gearsts:
www.tropicaltidbits.com IS down?


It was, but Levi put it on a new server and it's up and running.
Quoting 499. CycloneOz:



Political deals? They're pretty much worthless.

Technological advancements in non-CO2 emitting technologies? Absolutely...no question!

So...is this deal summit a political gathering or a technological advancement reveal?
Quoting 499. CycloneOz:



Political deals? They're pretty much worthless.

Technological advancements in non-CO2 emitting technologies? Absolutely...no question!

So...is this deal summit a political gathering or a technological advancement reveal?

sorry had to go out and clean up a little snow throw down some ice melt

Quoting Siker:


Webberweather made a great post on another forum earlier about analog years to this one. He showed that years with a Niño, +PDO, and other similar traits average warmer than normal Decembers for most of the country, including the Southeast, but have cold January's and even colder February's for the Southeast.


What I remember with traditional El Nino's of yesteryear was that both November and December would get cold. Followed by a coast to coast thaw either by Christmas and New Years Day(2006-07) or after the Holiday Season(1997-98) that would last 4-6 weeks with either an equal double dip or not. September and October would be below average too.

Mokiki's were more or less the opposite for Autumn and Winter(at least for the SE).
Quoting 418. CycloneOz:



I just pulled a homemade calzone out of the oven. It's pipin' hot and smells awesome.

The dough is hand-made and proofed. Inside is sauce, mozzarella, Italian sausage, black olives, finely diced onions and garlic, with basil and oregano.

The beer is cold. Let's eat! :)


Angel hair pasta with sauteed shrimp , butter , olive oil , deglace with white wine , fresh basil and oregano , roasted garlic , lil salt , black pepper , fresh parmigian cheese , small mushroom slices , broccoli florets , Julian zuchini ,and a little diced tomato , served with homemade garlic bread.
WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM WEST OF
EAURIPIK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE TWO LARGE BANDING FEATURES
HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. A
021630Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC WHILE A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE APPEARS TO BE BUILDING IN. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, PGTW AND RJTD
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES, AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS A DEEP-
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS JAPAN AND SLIGHTLY RE-ORIENTS THE
STR. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON STATUS BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 250 NM SPREAD BY TAU 72 AS THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALSO IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
C. PAST TAU 72, A COL REGION ALONG THE STR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WHILE A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM
GAINING LATITUDE. THIS WILL DRIVE TY 22W ON AN OVERALL SLOW WESTWARD
DRIFT WHILE INCREASING VWS FROM THE SURGE EVENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, SHOWS
LARGELY VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH RESULTS RANGING FROM A SLOW RE-CURVE SCENARIO TO A FAST
STRAIGHT RUN TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. DUE TO THIS,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 030009

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 02/2332Z

C. 7.52N

D. 140.47E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CENTER EMBEDDED
IN WHITE YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. PT AGREES; MET WAS 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1924Z 6.60N 141.87E SSMI


LONG
T.C.F.W.
22W RI FLAG FLAG


vapour shield is expanding as system tightens up 24 hr window for ri is possible
Quoting 482. CycloneOz:

NYT: 'Human extinction possible' without climate deal ...

WASHINGTON %u2014 After more than two decades of trying but failing to forge a global pact to halt climate change, United Nations negotiators gathering in South America this week are expressing a new optimism that they may finally achieve the elusive deal.

Even with a deal to stop the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists warn, the world will become increasingly unpleasant. Without a deal, they say, the world could eventually become uninhabitable for humans.

We need a deal...or we're dead?!?!

Please pass some WUFood popcorn. Alarmist rhetoric is stuff of movies.

The key word is "eventually", read that as a one or two hundred years out and more, but I agree complete extinction of our species is irresponsible alarmist rhetoric. It is more likely that we will see a combination of reduced habitable areas and a big reduction in the most productive food-producing lands. This means there will be attempts at mass migration of displaced populations combined with a downward spiral of economic activity that will lead to widespread wars. BAU as we know it today will not be possible, forcing a return to burning more coal and cutting down forests just to survive. On our current path today's global population is in extreme overshoot and a big reduction is likely. We have ruined the Earth for many generations to come, and have doomed future generations to a world of war, famine, poverty, disease and widespread death, a scenario far worse than the era of the Black Death.

Quoting hydrus:
Angel hair pasta with sauteed shrimp , butter , olive oil , deglace with white wine , fresh basil and oregano , roasted garlic , lil salt , black pepper , fresh parmigian cheese , small mushroom slices , broccoli florets , Julian zuchini ,and a little diced tomato , served with homemade garlic bread.
Add a pinch of Old Bay seasoning. To die for.

Other than that, your recipe is enough to end the drought in California by means of salivation.

I can just hear the next Aimee Semple McPherson asking her revivalists, "is salivation our salvation?"
Quoting 506. PedleyCA:


Not too shabby and it is still going. They were saying 1-5 the other day. Mostly not happening here (yet).


I have a lot of friends in San Diego, who are well jealous of LA's rain thus far! Looking at radar, if I was back in Rancho Mirage, I'd have been doubly jealous! ha

Being in North Wales, I have no jealousy of rain anymore, but the mild temps combined look nice. Not really cold here, but just getting used to them now.

If only Calif can get over their 'looking rich' kick and stop wasting water on frivolous things..then drought might not be AS big a problem. For food, well ok...for normal usage, well...ok. For vast amounts of area to be green falsely..pretty as it is...ummm, no. Peeps need to get over pretentions and realise WHERE they live! In a semi-arid region! Sheeple!
543. yoboi
Quoting 538. guygee:


The key word is "eventually", read that as a one or two hundred years out and more, but I agree complete extinction of our species is irresponsible alarmist rhetoric. It is more likely that we will see a combination of reduced habitable areas and a big reduction in the most productive food-producing lands. This means there will be attempts at mass migration of displaced populations combined with a downward spiral of economic activity that will lead to widespread wars. BAU as we know it today will not be possible, forcing a return to burning more coal and cutting down forests just to survive. On our current path today's global population is in extreme overshoot and a big reduction is likely. We have ruined the Earth for many generations to come, and have doomed future generations to a world of war, famine, poverty, disease and widespread death, a scenario far worse than the era of the Black Death.



As a farmer I disagree....Increased CO2 and modified seed....increased yield every year........Mother Nature will produce......
Evening all. I see Oz made the blog leader with his animation.... :o)

Watching makes me think "so close and yet so far" hurricane-wise for The Bahamas this season. I would have been happy to see another storm or two on the map, but I'm glad what's on there didn't do too much damage to life, limb, and property.

Now, considering it's about time for Klotzback and Gray's pre-season forecast, I'm already wondering about 2015 [of course, some people started doing that 6 months ago .... lol] . 1997 was followed by 1998, which was the year of Georges and Mitch. Unless we see a genuine turn towards el nino, a similar season in 2015 can't be ruled out.
Quoting 525. hydrus:

Yep..That rainforest has been there for at least 55 million years , and humans may take it out in less than a hundred...That to me is very nauseating...


"Humans are their own worst enemy".
Quoting 527. DonnieBwkGA:

Very mild with morning fog and fair weather. 54/77 Ahhhh!


Nice...
Quoting 507. sar2401:

The money contributed by Norway (and a lot of other countries) was used by the Brazilian government to increase police and army patrols and aerial surveillance. It was working until this year, when we saw this big increase in illegal logging. The question for the people in charge is how did this occur? It's not like those industrial loggers are doing this in the middle of the night. Clearly, there are people in power who are back on the take. That's why other nations that are contributing money to Brazil need to stop until such time as the Brazilian government is hurt more by these contributions being stopped than they make while allowing illegal logging.
One thing you have to understand about people on the take: they don't give a rodent's posterior whether or not the country - or even their own government or political party - suffers. When you are willing to see your soul for the kickbacks, everything and everybody else is just money to you.

So there has to be some pressure to oust the takers - preferably with some jail time involved - put on the government as well.
Quoting hydrus:
Angel hair pasta with sauteed shrimp , butter , olive oil , deglace with white wine , fresh basil and oregano , roasted garlic , lil salt , black pepper , fresh parmigian cheese , small mushroom slices , broccoli florets , Julian zuchini ,and a little diced tomato , served with homemade garlic bread.
Keep it warm for me. I'm on the way over. :-)
Quoting 543. yoboi:




As a farmer I disagree....Increased CO2 and modified seed....increased yield every year........Mother Nature will produce......
CO2 is not a limiting factor in plant growth, as a farmer you should know that. The limits are set by water supply and soil fertility. As a farmer, are you gaining soil or losing soil over decadal scales? How productive would your land be after an extreme drought and high winds blew your topsoil away, or extreme rains erode your land? Will "modified seed" grow without soil or water? As a farmer in today's world you may not have to worry about your own well-being, but your great-grandchildren will have to produce without high-fertilizer inputs in hotter and more extreme weather conditions, maybe while trying to fight off desperate hordes of starving displaced populations. As a farmer you would be wise to support reducing CO2 emissions so that your progeny might have the same choices that blessed your life.
Quoting 517. ColoradoBob1:



We've been passing tipping points like that old Commander Cody song , " Hot Rod Lincoln ".

The guy beside me was white as a ghost

It's no accident that Australia has just booked the hottest 2 springs back to back, and Britain booked the wettest winter last season . But that crazy loop this winter is beating Spain, France and North Africa, and points East in the head.
Really weird to see the kind of flooding in Morocco that we've seen the last two weeks.

Quoting 521. BayFog:



Low still churning in showers. Development southwest of the low center on the jet forecast to whip thru later tonight early tomorrow before the low itself comes ashore.
This looks genuinely beautiful to me ... so long since we've seen this. How much rain so far?

Quoting 551. BahaHurican:

Really weird to see the kind of flooding in Morocco that we've seen the last two weeks.

This looks genuinely beautiful to me ... so long since we've seen this. How much rain so far?




Looks like Santa Barbara is in the lead

SBA : SANTA BARBARA AP 9 : 64 / 58 / 2.06 / M


Link

Quoting yoboi:



As a farmer I disagree....Increased CO2 and modified seed....increased yield every year........Mother Nature will produce......
Hiya,

I'm curious. What and where do you farm? You sound like the folks I grew up amongst in the U.S. Midwest.

It is surely the case that corn yields are up dramatically over the course of the last century.



Source: LINK

That said, there seems to be some studies around which are examining potential crop yields in a much warmer world. One such study said that in the northern plains of India, a 1 C rise over today's temperatures could have a 10% decrease in yield for rice crops This could be a game changer, eh?
Quoting 543. yoboi:




As a farmer I disagree....Increased CO2 and modified seed....increased yield every year........Mother Nature will produce......


I seriously doubt you're farmer. In the past you've said that even if the world warms up we could just move our agricultural production north, which you were roundly (and correctly) criticized for on Dr. Rood's blog.

Agricultural production is extremely sensitive to climate and weather conditions. All it takes is an extreme drought for a couple years to cripple agricultural production with wide ranging global impacts, as was demonstrated not too long ago by the heatwave and drought that drove Russia to the point of ceasing exports and all the turmoil that followed that.

Quoting guygee:
CO2 is not a limiting factor in plant growth, as a farmer you should know that. The limits are set by water supply and soil fertility. As a farmer, are you gaining soil or losing soil on over decadal scales? How productive would your land be after an extreme drought and high winds blew your topsoil away, or extreme rains erode your land? Will "modified seed" grow without soil or water? As a farmer in today's world you may not have to worry about your own well-being, but your great-grandchildren will have to produce without high-fertilizer inputs in hotter and more extreme weather conditions, maybe while trying to fight off desperate hordes of starving displaced populations. As a farmer you would be wise to support reducing CO2 emissions so that your progeny might have the same choices that blessed your life.
guygee,

I greatly admire your "conservative" viewpoint. Ironically, the folks who couldn't care less about conservation have somehow bastardized the language and we end up with the most short-sighted, exploitative, irresponsible members of society, (aka our leaders) end up being called conservative while they are hell-bent on a course of radical destruction of not just half the planet's species, but also an entire geological period, i.e. the benign Holocene to be replace by the roller-coaster Anthropocene.

Fasten your seat belts. The conservatives have taken over!
Quoting rayduray2013:

At the risk of being very off-topic and politically incorrect....

szar,

As a left wing activist, I'm decidedly interested in your reaction here. There's sort of a "circle the wagons" mentality at work here. Too much John Wayne when you were younger? Why do you wish to bury your head in the sand when it is pointed out to you that your government is a corrupt extension of the corrupt corporate desperados who run the show in America? I thought you were more of an adult. Taking this sort of stuff in stride. You've taken it upon yourself to avoid a direct disputation of Colorado Bob's argument, i.e. that humanity is mis-led and misguided, and instead decided to engage in a sniveling ad hominem attack on Bob and Robert Fanney. Who as far as I can tell does better research and more thoughtful analysis than 99.99% of the population.

What have you got against truth and hard facts?

"For a general audience, it just makes people stop reading by the second sentence." Yup, that sums up our pending species-centric catastrophe as a planetary embodiment of arrogance in a nutshell. We are too smug, anti-intellectual and incurious to pay attention to the Wile E. Coyote cliff we humans have just jumped off of. Good luck with cranial-rectalitis as a proposed cure, eh.

***
Oh, and by the way, sar, I did very much enjoy and then bookmark the rebuttal blog to Guy McPherson you posted yesterday. Kudos. To paraphrase Bob Dylan, 'you were so much older (and wiser) then, you're younger (and no wiser) now."
Geez, I'm trying to eat dinner here after seeing all these food posts. :-) Reread what I wrote while imagining I tried to respond as if I was just one of the sheeple. I don't need to be convinced. I 100% believe that climate change is real, human activities are a primary cause, and we're headed for big trouble if we don't take steps now to do something about it. I was never once convinced about my position based on things like "carbon Mafia" or "bunch of Putins". I was convinced by a combination of what I consider irrefutable scientific evidence and calls to action for things we can do to help stem the problem. My point is that left wingers cannot convince the vast audience out there by writing as if they're still on a left wing blog any more than the tinfoil hat crowd is going to convince anyone about their supposed problems by blaming the Illuminati and worldwide Zionist conspiracy. If we can't find a way to modulate our language, stick to facts and not your political world view, and try to at least give a nod to what can be done in the near term that might actually work, we are only going to be talking to the converted and make no progress.

Thank you for your kind words about McPherson, speaking of crazed alarmists...
Quoting 546. PedleyCA:



"Humans are their own worst enemy".
we know so much but do so little
Quoting 555. rayduray2013:


guygee,

I greatly admire your "conservative" viewpoint. Ironically, the folks who couldn't care less about conservation have somehow bastardized the language and we end up with the most short-sighted, exploitative, irresponsible members of society, (aka our leaders) end up being called conservative while they are hell-bent on a course of radical destruction of not just half the planet's species, but also an entire geological period, i.e. the benign Holocene to be replace by the roller-coaster Anthropocene.

Fasten your seat belts. The conservatives have taken over!
I agree with your insightful comment, those who are self-identified "conservatives" in politics are in fact radicals blinded by ideology and hell-bent on performing a disastrous global experiment while having to resort to increasingly authoritarian rule. A real Orwellian perversion of language. Both major parties are firm believers in the neoliberal religion, so both are complicit in these crimes against humanity.
Quoting 557. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we know so much but do so little
Unfortunately, the converse is also equally true - we know so little but do so much...
December looks poised to be so exceptionally warm that I'd anticipate the next big Arctic front to possibly generate a substantial severe weather outbreak, all other conditions being equal.

Only a theoretical forecast, but it's not an unreasonable theory with the way things are shaping up.
Quoting 555. rayduray2013:


guygee,

I greatly admire your "conservative" viewpoint. Ironically, the folks who couldn't care less about conservation have somehow bastardized the language and we end up with the most short-sighted, exploitative, irresponsible members of society, (aka our leaders) end up being called conservative while they are hell-bent on a course of radical destruction of not just half the planet's species, but also an entire geological period, i.e. the benign Holocene to be replace by the roller-coaster Anthropocene.

Fasten your seat belts. The conservatives have taken over!



Really? Yeah, climate change is all conservatives' fault. Do you drive? Do you breathe? That contributes to CO2 so zip the lip on trying to blame one particular group on climate change .
Sorry about the rant, but I hate it whenever people try to blame CC entirely on one particular group when no one group is entirely responsible. :/

Quoting sar2401:


Thank you for your kind words about McPherson, speaking of crazed alarmists...
I correspond with Dr. McPherson. He's neither crazed nor, to my understanding of the precipice we are falling off of, an alarmist.

He's a realist, somewhat ahead of an unthinking herd.

Of course I quibble with his hyperbole/histrionics regarding the extinction of homo sapiens sapiens. We're not going out of business as species in 2030 or even 2530. But we will soon experience one hell of a die off. All one needs do is examine the history of over-population to understand we're in for a hell of a ride, starting yesterday with the starvation of millions of Syrian refugees who just had their food debit cards go kaput.



This, in itself, is nothing unusual.

What is unusual is how idiotic the response of the bulk of the population is to certain facts. Like the fact that today there are more people living in slums in so-called "developing" nations than existed on the entire planet at the start of the Kennedy Administration in 1961. That's a sobering number.

For more on the over-population crisis, I can highly recommend another intelligent leftie, Mike Davis who wrote a book called "Planet of Slums". Worth noting. While we engage in our Christmas shopping and the depletion of another 200% of the carrying capacity of the planet to provide for our consumerism and waste production.
Quoting 560. KoritheMan:
December looks poised to be so exceptionally warm that I'd anticipate the next big Arctic front to possibly generate a substantial severe weather outbreak, all other conditions being equal.

Only a theoretical forecast, but it's not an unreasonable theory with the way things are shaping up.


Define exceptionally warm as I don't see it infact your highs from this weekend thru next week will struggle just to get to a high of 55 most days. The only warm areas I see are the NW US and Canada. Central & Eastern US will be colder than average next week.

Those that are followint he GFS will be in for many busted forecast as that model is the lone ranger right now with its blow torch warmth. Infact even the GFS Parallel has trended toward the other models.
Way off topic here, but I'm over looking at recent [breathtaking] WunderPhotos.... and wondering if there isn't a blog out there where pple are talking about the photos, and what they like, don't like, etc., and share what they have experienced while taking their photos.
565. txjac
Quoting 560. KoritheMan:

December looks poised to be so exceptionally warm that I'd anticipate the next big Arctic front to possibly generate a substantial severe weather outbreak, all other conditions being equal.

Only a theoretical forecast, but it's not an unreasonable theory with the way things are shaping up.


I'm kind of disappointed by the warm up ...I enjoy the cool weather in Houston (when it comes)
I pretend that I am still in Ohio where there are seasons ...
Was overcast and cool today ...will be warming up by week end
I want to be able to light my fireplace soon ...
Quoting 537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.W.
22W RI FLAG FLAG


vapour shield is expanding as system tightens up 24 hr window for ri is possible


Not good for the Philippines!
567. txjac
Quoting 563. StormTrackerScott:



Define exceptionally warm as I don't see it infact your highs from this weekend thru next week will struggle just to get to a high of 55 most days. The only warm areas I see are the NW US and Canada. Central & Eastern US will be colder than average next week.


West side of Houston here ...help me out, what's in my weather future?
I'm really, really busy with work, and being a novice, if I want to figure out whats up weather wise in the next week, it would take me a chunk of time to research ...would like to know what you see and why ...please?
Quoting 565. txjac:



I'm kind of disappointed by the warm up ...I enjoy the cool weather in Houston (when it comes)
I pretend that I am still in Ohio where there are seasons ...
Was overcast and cool today ...will be warming up by week end
I want to be able to light my fireplace soon ...
It does look like we'll get at least one more cool-down before the middle of the month...
So far November and December in the NW Bahamas have been much closer to average than we have seen in the last few years, during which November and early December have generally trended anywhere from 2 - 5 degrees above average. I remember commenting last winter on the consistently high overnight low temps we experienced. So far the evenings have cooled off a little more, which has influenced our trend. I'm still expecting a serious warm-up by the middle of the month, though.

However, we shall see. Right now I'm more excited by what looks like real rain in much of central and south CA.... {g} ...

Quoting guygee:
I agree with you insightful comment, those who are self-identified "conservatives" in politics are in fact radicals blinded by ideology and hell-bent on performing a disastrous global experiment while having to resort to increasingly authoritarian rule. A real Orwellian perversion of language. Both major parties are firm believers in the neoliberal religion, so both are complicit in these crimes against humanity.
Thanks for your kind words.

Sooner rather than later the American people should wake up to the fact that they exist in a one-party state. That is the Corporate Party which holds two wings. The right-of-center, allow-any-financial-crime, Democratic Wing and the extremely insane right wing, create every-financial-crime Republican Wing.

It's dubious that the American people will survive their leadership. Yet they show no signs of comprehension about how audaciously terrible their leaders are. Of course there are historical precedents for populations to be led over a cliff by bad management and good propaganda.

In the meantime, Americans, you should be proud you don't live in an anti-intellectual nightmare like the Great Dark North.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaoScMnJNx4

[Could some kind soul re-post the YouTube converter utility? Thx.]


Quoting 569. rayduray2013:


Thanks for your kind words.

Sooner rather than later the American people should wake up to the fact that they exist in a one-party state. That is the Corporate Party which holds two wings. The right-of-center, allow-any-financial-crime, Democratic Wing and the extremely insane right wing, create every-financial-crime Republican Wing.

It's dubious that the American people will survive their leadership. Yet they show no signs of comprehension about how audaciously terrible their leaders are. Of course there are historical precedents for populations to be led over a cliff by bad management and good propaganda.

In the meantime, Americans, you should be proud you don't live in an anti-intellectual nightmare like the Great Dark North.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaoScMnJNx4

[Could some kind soul re-post the YouTube converter utility? Thx.]





There you go again, self-glorifying the left as those who can't do any wrong.
'When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. '

Things are not looking too good for us here in Leyte. Latest data from JMA show storm crossing 30km north of my house. There is so much uncertainty of what Hagupit will do, it is becoming un-nerving.

There are several thousand people here relying on information that I pass on from here. Fuel and shrimp is cheap here, but that is not for this blog.

Hagupit updates are most appreciated.

Pascal
Star Apple Foundation
Quoting 564. BahaHurican:

Way off topic here, but I'm over looking at recent [breathtaking] WunderPhotos.... and wondering if there isn't a blog out there where pple are talking about the photos, and what they like, don't like, etc., and share what they have experienced while taking their photos.


That's a great idea Baha! Hopefully Doc reads that post.
Quoting 530. DonnieBwkGA:



It was, but Levi put it on a new server and it's up and running.
Is been on and off for me last 2 days.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Way off topic here, but I'm over looking at recent [breathtaking] WunderPhotos.... and wondering if there isn't a blog out there where pple are talking about the photos, and what they like, don't like, etc., and share what they have experienced while taking their photos.
I'm not aware of exactly what you seek. But you might like these:

http://tomtillphotography.com/


http://www.jeffreymurrayphotography.com/#!/index
Quoting 572. TimTheWxMan:



That's a great idea Baha! Hopefully Doc reads that post.
I been tryin' a nudge dem in dat direction, mon ... lil' while, nah...

[grin]
Quoting 571. Caimito:

'When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. '

Things are not looking too good for us here in Leyte. Latest data from JMA show storm crossing 30km north of my house. There is so much uncertainty of what Hagupit will do, it is becoming un-nerving.

There are several thousand people here relying on information that I pass on from here. Fuel and shrimp is cheap here, but that is not for this blog.

Hagupit updates are most appreciated.

Pascal
Star Apple Foundation


18Z GFS has Hagupit staying northeast of the philippines but ultimately landfalling as a weakened storm.
Quoting 574. rayduray2013:


I'm not aware of exactly what you seek. But you might like these:

http://tomtillphotography.com/


http://www.jeffreymurrayphotography.com/#!/index

But they're not on the Wunderground! [though I appreciate the murray link - hadn't noted that one before.... ]
Italy Satellite IR

There's a Medicane, likely subtropical, about to make landfall on the west coast of Italy.
Quoting #569. rayduray2013,
[Could some kind soul re-post the YouTube converter utility? Thx.]

http://www.isdntek.com/tagbot/YouTubeConverter.ht m
http://www.iwantsomeproof.com/youtubeoldembedcode rizer.asp
http://www.robdahood.com/resources/tools/embedgen .html
http://www.tools4noobs.com/online_tools/youtube_x html/

must be one of these, and some bonus stuff,
and don't forget to remove any bonus spaces, thanks WU site.
Quoting 578. zhayes:

Italy Satellite IR

There's a Medicane, likely subtropical, about to make landfall on the west coast of Italy.
Looks like leftovers from the system that crossed Spain and Morocco on the weekend...
Quoting 579. PedleyCA:

Quoting #569. rayduray2013,
[Could some kind soul re-post the YouTube converter utility? Thx.]

http://www.isdntek.com/tagbot/YouTubeConverter.ht m
http://www.iwantsomeproof.com/youtubeoldembedcode rizer.asp
http://www.robdahood.com/resources/tools/embedgen .html
http://www.tools4noobs.com/online_tools/youtube_x html/

must be one of these, and some bonus stuff,
and don't forget to remove any bonus spaces, thanks WU site.

Hey, Pedley... did u get rained on today???
Quoting 578. zhayes:

Italy Satellite IR

There's a Medicane, likely subtropical, about to make landfall on the west coast of Italy.


Looks like it's rather close to Rome.
Gotta go, ya'll.... unexpected run to make.

Likely I'll see u guys in the a.m. if all works out.

L8r ....
Quoting 582. BahaHurican:

Hey, Pedley... did u get rained on today???



Off and on all day, but not the Show that was promised.

Starting to look kinda Wimpy.... Is that a Weather Term....
Quoting 576. TimTheWxMan:



18Z GFS has Hagupit staying northeast of the philippines but ultimately landfalling as a weakened storm.
Yes Tim. At 00Z it is the same. The differnt models of what will happen on Saturday is what we have to watch. Whether it goes into to a quasi-movement and/or recurves northwards, or decides to speed up towards our coast, the models are in conflict on. Have no doubt that it will have reached CAT 3 in the next 8 or 12 hours. It is a nice and sunny 33.5C here at the moment, but before Haiyan we had similar weather.
Quoting guygee:
I agree with your insightful comment, those who are self-identified "conservatives" in politics are in fact radicals blinded by ideology and hell-bent on performing a disastrous global experiment while having to resort to increasingly authoritarian rule. A real Orwellian perversion of language. Both major parties are firm believers in the neoliberal religion, so both are complicit in these crimes against humanity.
Wow! And I'm a self-identified "conservative" too. I had no idea I was responsible for so much.
NWS Tiyan Guam
Severe Tropical Cyclone Hagupit (22W)
==================================

A TYPHOON WARNING remains in effect for Yap and Ngulu in Yap State
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH remains in effect for Koror and Kayangel in the Republic of Palau
A TYPHOON WATCH remains in effect for Ulithi in Yap State

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (1422)
12:00 PM JST December 3 2014
==================================
Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Hagupit (955 hPa) located at 7.9N 139.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 10.1N 133.4E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines
Quoting 591. Caimito:

Yes Tim. At 00Z it is the same. The differnt models of what will happen on Saturday is what we have to watch. Whether it goes into to a quasi-movement and/or recurves northwards, or decides to speed up towards our coast, the models are in conflict on. Have no doubt that it will have reached CAT 3 in the next 8 or 12 hours. It is a nice and sunny 33.5C here at the moment, but before Haiyan we had similar weather.


Oh, you're in the Philippines? Yeah, that weather seems to be the calm before the storm. Keep a close eye on it and stay safe. We should get a clearer idea on what Hagupit's going to do on Saturday once tomorrow's models come out. However, I'm going to be pretty busy because of a GIS presentation on Sandy as well as finals coming up.
Quoting Caimito:
Yes Tim. At 00Z it is the same. The differnt models of what will happen on Saturday is what we have to watch. Whether it goes into to a quasi-movement and/or recurves northwards, or decides to speed up towards our coast, the models are in conflict on. Have no doubt that it will have reached CAT 3 in the next 8 or 12 hours. It is a nice and sunny 33.5C here at the moment, but before Haiyan we had similar weather.
I don't think we're looking at a repeat of Haiyan with this one, or at least it doesn't look like it now. Hagupit should be passing within 50 miles south of Yap in about 8 hours at about the same strength it's forecast to have when it first reaches any land in the Philippines. That should at least give you some idea of what conditions might be like for you if it continues on the same path and follows the forecasts for strength. The models are really having trouble due to a forecast increase in wind shear and the large and deep trough that should develop to the west of you. The trough is what should make Hagupit slow down while the shear should contribute to weakening the typhoon as it moves toward you. The overall confidence in track and strength is not high past three days. I know you'd like to hear something more certain but that's about the best you can get right now. Keep checking with the JTWC, since they will always have the best information. We are all amateurs here, and you should never depend on what any of us might say.

Quoting PedleyCA:
Quoting #569. rayduray2013,
[Could some kind soul re-post the YouTube converter utility? Thx.]

http://www.isdntek.com/tagbot/YouTubeConverter.ht m
http://www.iwantsomeproof.com/youtubeoldembedcode rizer.asp
http://www.robdahood.com/resources/tools/embedgen .html
http://www.tools4noobs.com/online_tools/youtube_x html/

must be one of these, and some bonus stuff,
and don't forget to remove any bonus spaces, thanks WU site.
That's the one that works for me.
Quoting 596. sar2401:

I don't think we're looking at a repeat of Haiyan with this one, or at least it doesn't look like it now. Hagupit should be passing within 50 miles south of Yap in about 8 hours at about the same strength it's forecast to have when it first reaches any land in the Philippines. That should at least give you some idea of what conditions might be like for you if it continues on the same path and follows the forecasts for strength. The models are really having trouble due to a forecast increase in wind shear and the large and deep trough that should develop to the west of you. The trough is what should make Hagupit slow down while the shear should contribute to weakening the typhoon as it moves toward you. The overall confidence in track and strength is not high past three days. I know you'd like to hear something more certain but that's about the best you can get right now. Keep checking with the JTWC, since they will always have the best information. We are all amateurs here, and you should never depend on what any of us might say.




Currently WU has Hagupit landfalling as a category 2.


Please let it be true
Hey guys

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys

Hey Wunderkid how are you. The weather is looking rainy where you are huh.
Ocean Heat Content for Hagupit

Hagupit Click pic to loop.
Terra caught Hagubit on a longitude line.

Quoting 602. Skyepony:

Ocean Heat Content for Hagupit



What is this showing us? I don't understand the scale on the bottom. Anomalies?
Quoting 558. guygee:

I agree with your insightful comment, those who are self-identified "conservatives" in politics are in fact radicals blinded by ideology and hell-bent on performing a disastrous global experiment while having to resort to increasingly authoritarian rule. A real Orwellian perversion of language. Both major parties are firm believers in the neoliberal religion, so both are complicit in these crimes against humanity.


But this comment isn't the least bit radical, or impacted by ideology? I guess I too am blind, be careful, such blanket statements on a large amount of people is rather dangerous.
Interesting features showing up in the long-range models. While the pattern looks progressive and transient, it's not stopping the ECMWF from showing two possible systems the first affecting inland areas and the second affecting the coastal areas of the Eastern CONUS. The long-range GGEM has a Sandy type system developing. Will be interesting to see how the models handle these features as we get closer. Obviously it's too far out at this time.
608. Tuvon
Quoting 605. oldnewmex:


What is this showing us? I don't understand the scale on the bottom. Anomalies?


The units are in kJ per square centimeter, so a unit of energy per area. Values greater than 50 are ripe for tropical systems to develop and higher values may help promote rapid intensification.
Quoting 598. TimTheWxMan:



Currently WU has Hagupit landfalling as a category 2.
Yes I see that. But the uncertainty is in what it is going to do after Friday whilst at CAT 4.
Chinese and JPA models have it racing in a more westerly track towards ME.
I do understand that it is never going to reach anywhere near Haiyan strength, but if it decides to take a more westerly approach at high speed, we could in fact still get a landfall in our warmer waters of CAT 3
We have just got to wait and see as it staggers left and right towards us.

After south of Yap, then north of Palau may give us a better indication.
Good morning from Europe, where I was meteorologically very excited to see that medicane Xandra - some of us watched in here the deepening which happenend yesterday when the system left the coast of Sardinia towards the northeast - managed to close its "eyewall" overnight before making landfall at sunrise at the western shores of Italy between Ostia (near Rome) and Civitavecchia.
SevereWeatherEurope reports associated winds up to 92kmh, 1000mb, heavy rains and a warm core. I don't have much time right now so here just a bunch of saved satellite and radar shots, some of them with integrated links to saved loops.


Source. Click the picture to get the loop.






Click to get a zoomed loop.



Saved current loop of Hagupit as night sets in. All the best down there!


These models which were split yesterday about a direct hit, recently agreed that it should be a (near) miss. Hope it stays that way!
Euro has 20 to 25 degree temps below normal across FL next week. This sure isn't the warm forecast being shown by NOAA. Again the NW US & Canada look much warmer than average next week but the East especially the SE US could be COLD!
Excerpt from JB

Overdone? Likely, but the message behind it is this trough next week is liable to be a pain in the neck near the east coast. You see what you shine your light on and while the GFS maybe alot of peoples model of choice. remember when the ECMWF the past couple of days though colder, was not phasing this, I have been saying to look out cause of the wild PNA



We got the Canadian going buckwild with a cutoff over WVA the middle of next week and its snow idea looking like this
Quoting 611. barbamz:



Saved current loop of Hagupit as night sets in. All the best down there!


These models which were split yesterday about a direct hit, recently agreed that it should be a (near) miss. Hope it stays that way!
Yes Barbams. Is looking more optimistic now, even though Hagupit will probably become Supertyphoon during our night (almost 8pm here now).
ECMWF / Explorer
hr 240 ways out but I can wish shows a nice big warmup at the 850mb layer so much for bitter cold air I love it hopefully all of dec will be like this

TPPN11 PGTW 030913

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/0832Z

C. 8.52N

D. 137.62E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 5.5. DBO PT, DUE TO THE FACT
THAT A FIX ON THE PREVIOUS 2 IMAGES WOULD HAVE GAVE THE STORM A
6.0, AND THE DT MAY BE UNREPRESENTATIVE ON THIS LATEST IMAGE.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN
WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING,
ALSO SEEN IN A 030342Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
BASED ON PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND DEEPENED CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY
HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 48, THE TYPHOON IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS JAPAN
AND SLIGHTLY RE-ORIENTS THE STR. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH
AROUND TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TY 22W.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE NORTHEAST SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AND
LIMIT TY 22W FROM GAINING LATITUDE. THIS WILL DRIVE TY 22W ON AN
OVERALL SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT WHILE INCREASING VWS FURTHER WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36 AND WIDELY SPREAD AFTER TAU 48. NVGM, GFS, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC
SHOW A SHARP POLEWARD TURN WHILE GFDN AND JENS INDICATE A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND STORM
MOTION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

Typhoon Hagupit

Typhoon Hagupit
Last Updated Dec 3, 2014 06 GMT
Location 8.3N 138.6E Movement WNW
Wind 115 MPH
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Excerpt from JB

Overdone? Likely, but the message behind it is this trough next week is liable to be a pain in the neck near the east coast. You see what you shine your light on and while the GFS maybe alot of peoples model of choice. remember when the ECMWF the past couple of days though colder, was not phasing this, I have been saying to look out cause of the wild PNA



We got the Canadian going buckwild with a cutoff over WVA the middle of next week and its snow idea looking like this


GFS shows below normal temps for the East Coast and S.E. towards the middle to end of next week.
It's not as strong as the GEM, especially when it comes to Florida.
But that's 7-8 days from now.

looks like a brief period of heavy snow coming in should not be much maybe just turn ground a little white for a bit
Warmer than average across most the US and dry for the southeast the next 6-10 days. Love this time of year, especially when no cold outbreaks appear in the next 2 weeks. Enjoy it!




We could see above average temps all the way to December 16 across most the US. Im sure the people up north wont be complaining :)

Quoting 626. WxGuy2014:

Warmer than average across most the US and dry for the southeast the next 6-10 days. Love this time of year, especially when no cold outbreaks appear in the next 2 weeks. Enjoy it!




I won't complain
be happy if it gets cold a couple of days before xmas
and have a little snow just to make it look festive for the holidays
I be good then we only have jan feb and half of march to go for the rest of winter

who knows maybe nov was our winter and the rest will be mild that be alright less work for me
From the Miami NWS Disco...

A MUCH MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL ALLOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA BY MIDWEEK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
Link

I should give some description of whats in the link..wxrisk posted a picture of WSI long range model that shows a strong -NAO pattern which is conductive of snow.
Quoting 567. txjac:



West side of Houston here ...help me out, what's in my weather future?
I'm really, really busy with work, and being a novice, if I want to figure out whats up weather wise in the next week, it would take me a chunk of time to research ...would like to know what you see and why ...please?


Go to weather.gov, click on the map near houston and click again on the blown up map of SE texas (the one that is light tan, not the one with images of weather). This will give you a point forecast for seven days and somewhere in there will be a "forecaster discussion" link with a two page discussion of forecaster reasoning.
Quoting 627. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I won't complain
be happy if it gets cold a couple of days before xmas
and have a little snow just to make it look festive for the holidays
I be good then we only have jan feb and half of march to go for the rest of winter

who knows maybe nov was our winter and the rest will be mild that be alright less work for me


Look at FL. While the NW US and Canada will be warmer than average the SE US and Eastern US are in for a colder than average weather. Just took a look at these departures from average. Again those banging the its gonna be warm drum next week are for a weather whip lash.


Quoting 606. Jedkins01:



But this comment isn't the least bit radical, or impacted by ideology? I guess I too am blind, be careful, such blanket statements on a large amount of people is rather dangerous.
Point taken Jedkins, regardless of how individuals may "self-identify" their belief system, there are exceptional people capable of independent thinking who recognize the overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change, regardless of the denial and ineffectual posturing of our leaders. I wish they were the majority and united together to force progress on reducing CO2 emissions. Sadly that is not the case, at least not yet, and the results are going to be disastrous for future generations. The goal should be to unite people, not to alienate people by classifying them into different camps using our current over-generalized and mostly non-descriptive political categories "conservative" and "liberal".
Quoting WxGuy2014:
Warmer than average across most the US and dry for the southeast the next 6-10 days. Love this time of year, especially when no cold outbreaks appear in the next 2 weeks. Enjoy it!




We could see above average temps all the way to December 16 across most the US. Im sure the people up north wont be complaining :)


I wouldn't expect those warmer anomalies across the East to come to fruition during the 8-14 day period.

Edited to clarify.
Euro has highs struggling just to hit 50 next Wednesday here in Orlando

Quoting 631. StormTrackerScott:



Look at FL. While the NW US and Canada will be warmer than average the SE US and Eastern US are in for a colder than average weather. Just took a look at these departures from average. Again those banging the its gonna be warm drum next week are for a weather whip lash.



isn't that an anomaly map therefore if you are normally at 80 it will be mid 60s that cool scott not cold
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wouldn't expect those warmer anomalies across the East to come to fruition.


We'll see, i know the CPC maps can be wrong but considering that its been consistent the past few days im sticking with them instead of Joe Bastardi lol.
Quoting 633. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wouldn't expect those warmer anomalies across the East to come to fruition.


Euro and Canadian are very similar looking and have been for days. The GFS is the lone wolf here and NOAA ia about to bust another forecast. What's new with this agency. I do however think Canada & the NW US will be much warmer than average as temps in FL will be similar to temps in Michigan next week.
looks like 60's and 70's for highs at 204 hr mark

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Again those banging the its gonna be warm drum next week are for a weather whip lash.




Those banging the FL is going to be hammered with cold temps are in for a 'world of hurt'. I'll get the crow ready.
Quoting 635. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

isn't that an anomaly map therefore if you are normally at 80 it will be mid 60s that cool scott not cold


Normals are in the low 70's here in Orlando Keeper. Highs of 50 to 55 next week is very cold here in Orlando just look at those anomalies as some are approaching 30 degrees below normal. That is impressive and I don't care how you slice it.
Quoting 638. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks like 60's and 70's for highs at 204 hr mark




Again Keeper its the GFS. I am referring to the Euro which has been performing far better than the GFS.
I don't know I guess it will feel cold too fla but to me that would just feel refreshing cool
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Euro and Canadian are very similar looking and have been for days. The GFS is the lone wolf here and NOAA ia about to bust another forecast. What's new with this agency. I do however think Canada & the NW US will be much warmer than average as temps in FL will be similar to temps in Michigan next week.


Even the weather channel has an entire article about the warmer than average temps the next 2 weeks.

Here is a link.
December Thaw: Long-Lasting Break From Arctic Chill For Most Of U.S.
Link

Guess they are crazy too right? Along with the CPC?

The weather channel has highs in the 70s for you in Orlando through 2 weeks, so im afraid there are just too many sources saying otherwise.

Link
we shall see this is all just shots in the dark and for the most part u should only use out to hr 144 for any guess when it comes to weather
Quoting 642. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I don't know I guess it will feel cold too fla but to me that would just feel refreshing cool


To me Keep anything below 70 is cold :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah as you have had plenty lately. You and Keeper come on here and get proven wrong all the time so whats new.


Not sure why are you attacking keeper and myself for simply posting information from reputable and respectable weather agencies. What is with you? Can one not post reliable weather information without being attacked?
Quoting 644. WxGuy2014:



Even the weather channel has an entire article able the warmer than average temps the next 2 weeks.

Here is a link.
December Thaw: Long-Lasting Break From Arctic Chill For Most Of U.S.
Link

Guess they are crazy too right? Along with the CPC?

The weather channel has highs in the 70s for you in Orlando through 2 weeks, so im afraid there are just too many sources saying otherwise.

Link



No offense but the TWC are Global Warming head quarters just as they predicted November to be warmer than average. How did that turn out?
Quoting 633. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wouldn't expect those warmer anomalies across the East to come to fruition during the 8-14 day period.

Edited to clarify.
No offense but the CPC has been off lately.Well I'm rooting for the cold.If the map was right from the CPC that would mean highs in the 60's.No..just no..
Quoting 633. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wouldn't expect those warmer anomalies across the East to come to fruition during the 8-14 day period.

Edited to clarify.

Just curious... what's your thought process? Thinking that they are discounting troughs in the east too much? Or see a different teleconnection signal?
Quoting 650. washingtonian115:

No offense but the CPC has been off lately.Well I'm rooting for the cold.If the map was right from the CPC that would mean highs in the 60's.No..just no..
come on wash u could get a tan for Christmas
Quoting StormTrackerScott:



No offense but the TWC are Global Warming head quarters just as they predicted November to be warmer than average. How did that turn out?


Not going to argue with ya anymore as its just a dead end. Just going to post this nice little graphic that you love :)

Quoting StormTrackerScott:



No offense but the TWC are Global Warming head quarters just as they predicted November to be warmer than average. How did that turn out?


You do realize that meteorologist get forecasts wrong every day right? Its an imperfect science, and thats what makes it so interesting. You are wrong 90% of the time but thats okay, you are not a professional meteorologist. You just post forecast graphics and cross your fingers it happens. :)
Quoting 652. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

come on wash u could get a tan for Christmas
Well I get a tan from May-September and in years where the heat starts early such as March and April (2010 and 2012) and last through September and October (2010 2012) I have plenty a chance of getting one.I just want it to be cold in December like it's suppose to.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
come on wash u could get a tan for Christmas


Thats why i love living down here, you get the best weather in the winter. Though summers can be pretty brutal with the humidity.
Quoting 655. washingtonian115:

Well I get a tan from May-September and in years where the heat starts early such as March and April (2010 and 2012) and last through September and October (2010 2012) I have plenty a chance of getting one.I just want it to be cold in December like it's suppose to.
yeah I know but what we want and what we get are always two different things
I missed it...Did someone post the top five forecasters for the hurricane season and the bottom 5 if there were such?
Send me the message number or post a path to that blog page...please.
Hi Guys,

I know I am taking a lot of flack on Doc's Blog refuting NOAA in its warm outlook but I have concerns in regards to that and I will lay them out below. Personally I think again the Euro and Canadian models have the right idea here.

Below is the GFS and why its showing its warmer than average outlook and the reason is the trough is weaker in the east and mostly offshore so its not able to really yank down the cold from up north.

GFS


Now here is the Euro and it's Eastern Trough is deeper and more across the Eastern US and its able to pull down some pretty cold air all the way down into FL.

Euro


Again this is still 8 days out but I suspect the Eastern US will see something similar to what the Euro is showing. We shall see!

Thanks guys.

Reference: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormTrackerScott /comment.html?entrynum=9#commenttop
Keeper & WxGuy2014 sorry for being an ASS this morning.
no hard feelings here
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no hard feelings here
I guess one of the disadvantages of being a mod is you can't put anyone on ignore. That alone would kill the job for me. :-)
Quoting biff4ugo:
I missed it...Did someone post the top five forecasters for the hurricane season and the bottom 5 if there were such?
Send me the message number or post a path to that blog page...please.
I don't think Max has posted his list, or at least I haven't seen any high fives around here about it.
Quoting 663. sar2401:

I don't think Max has posted his list, or at least I haven't seen any high fives around here about it.


I think I was the top forecaster. I think my official forecast was 8 3 1. Pretty darn close to the actual numbers.
Quoting 662. sar2401:

I guess one of the disadvantages of being a mod is you can't put anyone on ignore. That alone would kill the job for me. :-)
ya I can just that everything is in blue that they post

and I would never take action against someone that is arguing with me I would leave that up to another mod or admin to decide I feel that would be kinda like abusing my position and I will never do that no matter what
Im thinking of making the drive to canaveral to watch the launch of Orion tomorrow morning. 60% chance of a 'go' and looking at the local cape canaveral weather it looks pretty darn good, light wind and very low chance of rain.



I have seen no formal announcement yet that I seen anyway regarding the 2014 cane seasonal guesses
Quoting 665. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya I can just that everything is in blue that they post

and I would never take action against someone that is arguing with me I would leave that up to another mod or admin to decide I feel that would be kinda like abusing my position and I will never do that no matter what


Keeper I appreciate you putting up with me as In know I can be a little rough sometimes but I do have a big heart.
Quoting 668. StormTrackerScott:



Keeper I appreciate you putting up with me as In know I can be a little rough sometimes but I do have a big heart.
I know we are different but yet the same
The GFS is forecasting below normal temperatures late next week. It's just not as strong as the GEM or ECMWF. The GEM builds in later and is much stronger.

But the GFS is not forecasting warm weather for late next week for the Eastcoast and S.E.

GFS at 174 hours


GFS at 192 hours


GFS at 240 hours
Quoting 670. Sfloridacat5:

The GFS is forecasting below normal temperatures late next week. The timing is just a little earlier and not as strong as the GEM or ECMWF. The GEM builds in later and is much stronger.

But the GFS is not forecast warm weather for late next week for the Eastcoast and S.E.

GFS at 174 hours


GFS at 192 hours


GFS at 240 hours



Yeah the GFS is slowly coming around.
Quoting 667. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I have seen no formal announcement yet that I seen anyway regarding the 2014 cane seasonal guesses


Latest entries from Max in his blog. Looks like the guy needed at first to rest before looking at those guesses, lol.

95. MaxWeather
09:00 AM GMT am 03. Dezember 2014
Im back in Norwalk, CT. Got here around this time 12 hours ago
A 20 hour drive non-stopping except for gas
A 33 hour timeframe of no sleep. This is a record for me.

96. MaxWeather
10:26 AM GMT am 03. Dezember 2014
I will try to have a blog later today
Quoting WxGuy2014:


You do realize that meteorologist get forecasts wrong every day right? Its an imperfect science, and thats what makes it so interesting. You are wrong 90% of the time but thats okay, you are not a professional meteorologist. You just post forecast graphics and cross your fingers it happens. :)
Here's the thing. You can either take the word of one meteorologist, post models you don't really understand, and then make, not forecasts, but pronouncements. The other option is to to try to understand what's written by multiple meteorologists from agencies with the training, experience, and computing power none of us have, look at models that most of us have an imperfect understanding of, and then ask yourself if there's some reason why the pros are likely to be wrong. My experience has been they tend to be more right more often than I am, so I'm pretty careful about disputing them without a good reason.

That being said, the CPC is posting their model based on a bunch of other models, going out to 14 and even 30 days. Once we start to get beyond five days, accuracy rapidly ends up in the dumper, not because the people at the CPC are morons, but just because the science isn't there yet for greater accuracy. One thing to understand with CPC temperature forecasts is they depict the average of temperature during the forecast period, not temperatures for any single day in the period. We could have temperature above average, as we're seeing now, with temperatures below average later in the period, and still end up with average temperatures. My guess is that's what's going to happen, with temperatures next week at this time slipping below average again as we get a big high build in. I don't think we're going to see the polar vortex again, just the normal ebb and flow of temperatures as we approach winter.
Bromance on Wu!.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya I can just that everything is in blue that they post

and I would never take action against someone that is arguing with me I would leave that up to another mod or admin to decide I feel that would be kinda like abusing my position and I will never do that no matter what
Yeah, but you'd still have to read them all. The increase in blood pressure and bile production would offset the large salary you're getting paid for me. ;-)
Quoting 664. StormTrackerScott:



I think I was the top forecaster. I think my official forecast was 8 3 1. Pretty darn close to the actual numbers.


LOL. You argued and argued that you changed it to changed it to 5-7.
Quoting luvtogolf:


LOL. You argued and argued that you changed it to changed it to 5-7.


I actually was the top forecaster. I predicted it perfectly, i just didnt tell anyone. I'll show you my notepad where i wrote it down, thats good enough proof right? lol
To be honest I suspect we will see something similar to what I have illustrated below and that is the trough will dig even further west than what the Euro shows now allowing for a Gulf system to ride up the eastern US.

Quoting 677. WxGuy2014:



I actually was the top forecaster. I predicted it perfectly, i just didnt tell anyone. I'll show you my notepad where i wrote it down, thats good enough proof right? lol


Numbers don't lie I posted before the 5/15 deadline 8 3 1 and then said I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 5 to 7 named systems back in June.
Quoting 679. StormTrackerScott:



Numbers don't lie I posted before the 5/15 deadline 8 3 1 and then said I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 5 to 7 named systems back in June.


C'mom Jeff. When it looked like we were going to end up with 6-7 storms argued that you said 5-7 and that you nailed the forecast. You spent days looking for you post back in May saying that you forecasted 5-7. As usual, you change your story.
ok lets just stop now ok its getting out of hand

enough already
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Numbers don't lie I posted before the 5/15 deadline 8 3 1 and then said I wouldn't be surprised if we saw 5 to 7 named systems back in June.


I predicted the sun would rise today. I was right.
The sunshine state will stay sunny for the next 7 days.

The 6-8 day range is definitely a period to watch for the mid Atlantic and Northeast. The 0z Euro went crazy with back to back coastal storms producing huge snows for central and northern New England. The CMC has it's own major storm with impacts further southwest. And the GFS is hinting at something interesting as well. Lots of fine tuning needed, but the potential is there for a significant storm.





nov anomaly temp maps are out



Quoting 651. ScottLincoln:


Just curious... what's your thought process? Thinking that they are discounting troughs in the east too much? Or see a different teleconnection signal?

Increasing Rossby wave amplitude as the MJO progresses into the West Hemisphere. That in conjunction with an extremely positive PNA should promote the oh-so-often-seen West Coast ridge, East Coast trough. The ECMWF/CMC seem to have the right idea, with a strong trough that has the potential to cut-off across the East (much like the one to start November and deliver the record snows to South Carolina did). The GFS is slowly coming around to the idea, but I think it's still a little too weak (and too fast).


MAweatherboy1

The air is not cold enough.So I'm not getting excited yet.But I will say that December will certainly be wet for people on the east coast.
I predicted the Wunderground sale to TWCC back in 2012, 4 days before it was announced here.

: P
Where will it go... no one knows

Nuclear Event in Ukraine on Wednesday, 03 December, 2014 at 12:12 (12:12 PM) UTC.

Back
Updated: Wednesday, 03 December, 2014 at 12:30 UTC
Description
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said on Wednesday an accident had occurred at the Zaporizhye nuclear power plant (NPP) in south-east Ukraine and called on the energy minister to hold a news conference. "I know that an accident has occurred at the Zaporizhye NPP," Yatseniuk said, asking new energy minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn to make clear when the problem would be resolved and what steps would be taken to restore normal power supply across Ukraine. News agency Interfax Ukraine said the problem had occurred at bloc No 3 - a 1,000-megawatt reactor - and the resulting lack of output had worsened the power crisis in the country. Interfax added that the bloc was expected to come back on stream on Dec. 5.
I predicted the Wunderground sale to TWCC back in 2012, 4 days before it was announced here.

: P


HA!!!......but you would have needed to change your prediction midstream to be considered credible in this new age of accounting.......i listened to a sports talk show host explain how he was credited with making last years superbowl prediction....during preseason......both teams...and the winner....and he admitted.....i didn't....asking his colleagues what to do...they said...go with it....it's a new era...and we're just dinosaurs
Hagupit is about to pop out an absolutely massive eye.

I never said I posted here though did I.




: )


The devil is usually in da details dey say.
Quoting 694. washingtonian115:




Obviously nowhere close to DC metro :-)
Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:

Hi Guys,

I know I am taking a lot of flack on Doc's Blog refuting NOAA in its warm outlook but I have concerns in regards to that and I will lay them out below. Personally I think again the Euro and Canadian models have the right idea here.

Below is the GFS and why its showing its warmer than average outlook and the reason is the trough is weaker in the east and mostly offshore so its not able to really yank down the cold from up north.

GFS


Now here is the Euro and it's Eastern Trough is deeper and more across the Eastern US and its able to pull down some pretty cold air all the way down into FL.

Euro


Again this is still 8 days out but I suspect the Eastern US will see something similar to what the Euro is showing. We shall see!

Thanks guys.

Reference: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormTrackerScott /comment.html?entrynum=9#commenttop



We'll see what actually develops and then do the postmortem because one of these model suites is going to be wrong with something that is tractably predictable seven to eight days out.. a large scale rossby wave.
Quoting 697. georgevandenberghe:



Obviously nowhere close to DC metro :-)
Yes I know.One of my instagram followers sent me the picture.
San Francisco Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Areal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 6:56 AM PST on December 03, 2014
The National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area has extended the

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... Marin County in western California... Santa Clara County in western California... Alameda County in western California... Napa County in western California... Contra Costa County in western California... Santa Cruz County in western California... Sonoma County in western California... San Mateo County in western California... San Francisco County in western California...

* until 900 am PST.

* At 653 am PST...Doppler radar data indicated moderate to heavy rain continues over portions of the region early this morning. Several inches of rainfall occurred overnight overwhelming drainage systems across portions of the region...especially over the greater San Francisco Bay area. This has resulted in minor flooding across urban areas...especially in low lying areas such as underpasses and poorly drained surface streets. Additional rainfall this morning will only exacerbate the situation...especially around high tide at approximately 8 am PST.

Excess runoff from heavy rainfall is expected to cause ponding of water in urban areas...highways...streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots. Also...small creeks and streams could flood quickly...possibly covering roads and nearby low areas.

Allow extra time to get to your destination. If water covers the roadway do not cross it. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear and the water may be too deep to allow your vehicle to cross safely.

A Flood Advisory means that although streams and creeks may be elevated or even rise out of their banks...property damage should be minimal. Inconveniences can be expected but the flooding will not be immediately life threatening.

To report flooding...have the nearest law enforcement agency relay your report to the National Weather Service forecast office.

Lat...Lon 3838 12207 3815 12220 3815 12239 3804 12249 3760 12235 3751 12216 3751 12212 3794 12243 3802 12237 3810 12158 3778 12154 3751 12176 3720 12173 3698 12191 3696 12214 3753 12253 3781 12249 3802 12297 3827 12298

Special Statement
Statement as of 5:57 AM PST on December 03, 2014
Several inches of rainfall occurred overnight overwhelming drainage systems across the greater San Francisco Bay area. This has resulted in minor flooding across urban areas...especially in low lying areas such as underpasses and poorly drained surface streets. Additional rainfall this morning will only exacerbate the situation.

Motorist are urged to use caution this morning when traveling on area roadways...especially when approaching low lying underpasses. If water covers the roadway do not cross it. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear and the water may be too deep to allow your vehicle to cross safely. Remember...turn around don't drown.

Local Storm Report
12/02/2014 0745 am

4 miles NE of Daly City, San Francisco County.

Flood, reported by broadcast media.

Flooding closes right lanes of southbound US-101 at Paul Ave in San Francisco.

Public Information Statement
Statement as of 6:35 am PST on December 3, 2014
...Latest rainfall reports...

Location amount time/date lat/Lon

...California...

...Alameda... Newark i880/Mowry 2.48 in 0602 am 12/03 37.53n/122.01w Fremont i880/decoto 2.05 in 0602 am 12/03 37.57n/122.04w 1 WNW Piedmont 2.03 in 0619 am 12/03 37.83n/122.25w Oakland museum 2.02 in 0600 am 12/03 37.80n/122.26w Oakland N RAWS 2.01 in 0602 am 12/03 37.87n/122.22w 2 N Piedmont 1.95 in 0611 am 12/03 37.86n/122.23w Fremont i880/auto mall Pkwy 1.93 in 0602 am 12/03 37.51n/121.96w Eden Reservoir 1.73 in 0542 am 12/03 37.72n/122.02w National wildlife Refuge 1.73 in 0606 am 12/03 37.53n/122.07w Castro Valley/Bellingham dri 1.73 in 0604 am 12/03 37.73n/122.06w 8 E Fremont 1.71 in 0602 am 12/03 37.55n/121.84w Fremont 1.70 in 0620 am 12/03 37.53n/121.98w 2 SSW Dublin 1.70 in 0530 am 12/03 37.69n/121.92w Livermore Municipal Airport 1.68 in 0553 am 12/03 37.69n/121.81w 2 se Piedmont 1.66 in 0608 am 12/03 37.80n/122.20w Union City sanitary District 1.66 in 0602 am 12/03 37.58n/122.08w 3 E Oakland 1.59 in 0607 am 12/03 37.77n/122.16w Oakland S RAWS 1.54 in 0602 am 12/03 37.79n/122.14w 3 N Piedmont 1.54 in 0618 am 12/03 37.86n/122.23w 2 N Milpitas 1.51 in 0621 am 12/03 37.47n/121.89w Castro Valley 1.51 in 0149 am 12/03 37.72n/122.06w 3 N Milpitas 1.50 in 0615 am 12/03 37.48n/121.90w 2 NE Oakland 1.50 in 0612 am 12/03 37.80n/122.20w San Lorenzo ck @ San Lorenzo 1.50 in 0504 am 12/03 37.68n/122.14w 1 WNW Dublin 1.46 in 0616 am 12/03 37.72n/121.93w Castro Valley/Arcadian rsvr 1.46 in 0602 am 12/03 37.72n/122.10w Oakland Airport 1.40 in 0553 am 12/03 37.72n/122.22w Hayward air terminal 1.38 in 0354 am 12/03 37.65n/122.12w Turner court/acpwa corp yard 1.38 in 0602 am 12/03 37.65n/122.10w 9 NNE east foothills 1.36 in 0602 am 12/03 37.50n/121.74w 1 se Livermore 1.35 in 0613 am 12/03 37.67n/121.74w 2 SSE Fairview 1.32 in 0620 am 12/03 37.65n/122.03w 2 SW Piedmont 1.32 in 0611 am 12/03 37.80n/122.25w 2 NNW Piedmont 1.25 in 0615 am 12/03 37.86n/122.24w 1 SSE Berkeley 1.24 in 0620 am 12/03 37.85n/122.29w 4 WSW Piedmont 1.22 in 0603 am 12/03 37.80n/122.30w Oakland fire station 1.18 in 0615 am 12/03 37.80n/122.19w 3 E Oakland 1.16 in 0619 am 12/03 37.77n/122.16w 3 se Hayward 1.05 in 0619 am 12/03 37.60n/122.07w 1 WNW Hayward 1.00 in 0619 am 12/03 37.64n/122.13w Altamont RAWS 0.64 in 0612 am 12/03 37.69n/121.61w

...Contra Costa... 1 W Brentwood 2.24 in 0615 am 12/03 37.93n/121.72w Highland Peak 2.22 in 0500 am 12/03 37.81n/121.81w Brentwood corp yard 2.19 in 0602 am 12/03 37.92n/121.68w Marsh Creek Reservoir 2.17 in 0602 am 12/03 37.89n/121.73w Marsh Creek fire station 2.15 in 0500 am 12/03 37.90n/121.86w Bethel Island fire sta. 2.14 in 0500 am 12/03 38.02n/121.64w Mt Diablo park hq 2.11 in 0500 am 12/03 37.85n/121.93w Byron Airport 2.10 in 0519 am 12/03 37.83n/121.62w flood control hq 2.05 in 0602 am 12/03 37.99n/122.09w Mallory Ridge RAWS 2.03 in 0602 am 12/03 37.82n/121.78w San Ramon 1.97 in 0615 am 12/03 37.76n/121.95w Richmond City Hall 1.94 in 0500 am 12/03 37.94n/122.34w 1 SSW Danville 1.87 in 0620 am 12/03 37.79n/121.98w briones RAWS 1.87 in 0602 am 12/03 37.93n/122.12w Tassajara 1.82 in 0400 am 12/03 37.79n/121.87w Roddy ranch Golf club 1.80 in 0500 am 12/03 37.99n/121.79w los Vaqueros RAWS 1.79 in 0602 am 12/03 37.79n/121.73w Rocky Ridge 1.78 in 0602 am 12/03 37.82n/122.06w Kregor Peak 1.77 in 0602 am 12/03 37.94n/121.89w Arroyo del hambre 1.71 in 0500 am 12/03 37.98n/122.18w Danville Library 1.66 in 0520 am 12/03 37.87n/122.06w Concord Buchanan Field 1.64 in 0553 am 12/03 37.99n/122.06w weapons station fire sta. 1.63 in 0500 am 12/03 38.02n/122.02w 2 W Brentwood 1.63 in 0617 am 12/03 37.94n/121.75w Cummings peak 1.61 in 0500 am 12/03 38.03n/122.20w Rossmoor 1.58 in 0500 am 12/03 37.87n/122.06w Black Diamond RAWS 1.52 in 0602 am 12/03 37.95n/121.88w Bixler pumping plant 1.51 in 0520 am 12/03 37.94n/121.62w los medonos 1.51 in 0539 am 12/03 38.00n/121.86w 1 SSW East Richmond heigts 1.49 in 0619 am 12/03 37.94n/122.31w St. Marys College 1.48 in 0602 am 12/03 37.84n/122.11w 1 ESE El Sobrante 1.48 in 0612 am 12/03 37.97n/122.26w Dublin fire station 1.46 in 0602 am 12/03 37.73n/121.93w Blackhawk 1.46 in 0619 am 12/03 37.82n/121.91w 1 NW Orinda 1.41 in 0620 am 12/03 37.90n/122.20w 2 ESE San Ramon 1.36 in 0617 am 12/03 37.75n/121.92w Ygnacio Valley fire 1.35 in 0602 am 12/03 37.94n/122.03w Lafayette 1.32 in 0618 am 12/03 37.90n/122.12w Vine Hill 1.28 in 0618 am 12/03 38.01n/122.09w 3 ENE Walnut Creek 1.26 in 0607 am 12/03 37.93n/122.00w Orinda fire station 1.23 in 0602 am 12/03 37.90n/122.17w 3 E Moraga Town 1.15 in 0602 am 12/03 37.83n/122.07w 1 NNE Pittsburg 1.15 in 0620 am 12/03 38.03n/121.88w 2 WNW Moraga Town 1.13 in 0613 am 12/03 37.85n/122.16w 2 NE El Sobrante 1.11 in 0620 am 12/03 38.00n/122.27w El Cerrito 1.09 in 0612 am 12/03 37.93n/122.31w 2 WNW Walnut Creek 1.08 in 0332 am 12/03 37.92n/122.07w Kensington 1.05 in 0619 am 12/03 37.92n/122.29w 1 SW Concord 0.98 in 1243 am 12/03 37.96n/122.01w 1 WSW Alamo 0.98 in 0617 am 12/03 37.84n/122.03w 3 S Richmond 0.96 in 0617 am 12/03 37.91n/122.35w Walnut Creek 0.86 in 0620 am 12/03 37.89n/122.04w 2 SSW Pleasant Hill 0.86 in 0616 am 12/03 37.92n/122.09w Concord Pavilion 0.84 in 0539 am 12/03 37.96n/121.94w Alamo 0.12 in 0617 am 12/03 37.86n/122.00w

...Marin... 3 WNW Novato 4.26 in 0620 am 12/03 38.11n/122.61w Woodacre RAWS 3.66 in 0602 am 12/03 37.99n/122.64w Olema valley RAWS 3.26 in 0613 am 12/03 38.04n/122.80w Big Rock RAWS 3.03 in 0602 am 12/03 38.04n/122.57w Middle Peak RAWS 2.94 in 0602 am 12/03 37.93n/122.59w Fairfax 2.13 in 0620 am 12/03 37.98n/122.59w San Rafael 2.04 in 0600 am 12/03 38.00n/122.53w Tiburon 2.02 in 0609 am 12/03 37.89n/122.46w 1 SW Novato 1.85 in 0611 am 12/03 38.08n/122.57w San Anselmo creek at bridge 1.58 in 0400 am 12/03 37.98n/122.56w 1 NW Mill Valley 1.40 in 0615 am 12/03 37.91n/122.55w 4 W Inverness 1.00 in 0605 am 12/03 38.10n/122.93w barnaby RAWS 0.20 in 0602 am 12/03 38.03n/122.70w

...Marine reporting stations... San Leandro Marina 2.13 in 0437 am 12/03 37.70n/122.19w

...Monterey... Mining Ridge 24 SW greenfiel 4.76 in 0614 am 12/03 36.06n/121.52w 13 S Carmel Valley vill 3.39 in 0619 am 12/03 36.30n/121.71w 6 SW Carmel Valley vill 3.23 in 0619 am 12/03 36.41n/121.79w Pinyon Peak 12 SW Greenfield 2.56 in 0615 am 12/03 36.17n/121.38w Anderson Peak 21 SSE Carmel 2.44 in 0617 am 12/03 36.19n/121.64w Black Cone 18 SSE Carmel Vly 2.13 in 0618 am 12/03 36.24n/121.60w Three Peaks 14 NW Hearst cas 2.04 in 0602 am 12/03 35.86n/121.32w Big Sur RAWS 1.91 in 0604 am 12/03 36.24n/121.79w Andrew molera 1.66 in 0602 am 12/03 36.28n/121.84w los padres dam 1.61 in 0610 am 12/03 36.39n/121.67w Chalk Peak 22 SW King City 1.58 in 0607 am 12/03 35.99n/121.43w Ponciano Ridge 5 S Carmel vl 1.57 in 0615 am 12/03 36.40n/121.72w Arroyo Seco RAWS 1.54 in 0604 am 12/03 36.24n/121.48w ft Hunter Liggett RAWS 1.52 in 0602 am 12/03 36.01n/121.24w 15 SSW King City 1.51 in 0525 am 12/03 36.01n/121.24w Carmel-By-The-Sea 1.43 in 0607 am 12/03 36.55n/121.93w Chews Ridge 14 se Carmel Vly 1.34 in 0602 am 12/03 36.31n/121.57w mapel ranch 1.33 in 0600 am 12/03 36.04n/121.48w 10 SW Carmel Valley vill 1.30 in 0615 am 12/03 36.39n/121.86w 2 WNW Monterey 1.20 in 0620 am 12/03 36.62n/121.92w del Monte Forest 1.18 in 0613 am 12/03 36.59n/121.94w Arroyo Seco nr Greenfield - 1.18 in 0602 am 12/03 36.24n/121.48w Elkhorn Slough at Moss landi 1.11 in 1200 am 12/03 36.82n/121.74w Whale Point 1.10 in 0540 am 12/03 36.08n/121.57w Monterey Peninsula Airport 0.90 in 0554 am 12/03 36.59n/121.85w Smith Mountain nr San Ardo 0.87 in 0530 am 12/03 36.08n/120.61w Hastings RAWS 0.84 in 0611 am 12/03 36.39n/121.55w Parkfield RAWS 0.79 in 0555 am 12/03 35.90n/120.43w Salinas Municipal Airport 0.71 in 0553 am 12/03 36.66n/121.61w Point Pinos 0.71 in 0610 am 12/03 36.63n/121.93w Marina 0.69 in 0614 am 12/03 36.69n/121.81w 13 N Lake Nacimiento 0.68 in 0600 am 12/03 35.93n/120.87w 12 SSW Carmel Valley vill 0.66 in 0605 am 12/03 36.32n/121.81w 15 NNE Hearst Castle 0.51 in 0602 am 12/03 35.90n/121.09w 9 NW San Miguel 0.49 in 0612 am 12/03 35.86n/120.80w 6 ENE Carmel Valley vill 0.40 in 0602 am 12/03 36.55n/121.63w 6 SSE San Juan Bautista 0.40 in 0602 am 12/03 36.76n/121.49w 4 N Lake Nacimiento 0.35 in 0602 am 12/03 35.80n/120.89w 18 E King City 0.28 in 0602 am 12/03 36.20n/120.80w 9 NE San Miguel 0.23 in 0602 am 12/03 35.86n/120.60w San Lorenzo c bl Bitterwater 0.19 in 0602 am 12/03 36.27n/121.07w Salinas 0.19 in 0602 am 12/03 36.69n/121.63w 3 se del Monte Forest 0.18 in 0618 am 12/03 36.55n/121.92w 2 S Salinas 0.15 in 0602 am 12/03 36.65n/121.64w

...Napa... St Helena @ Sulphur ck 2.68 in 0625 am 12/03 38.49n/122.48w Hopper ck @ Hwy 29 2.68 in 0621 am 12/03 38.41n/122.37w Conn dam spillway 2.28 in 0628 am 12/03 38.49n/122.38w Angwin 2.08 in 0602 am 12/03 38.57n/122.43w Angwin 2.02 in 0619 am 12/03 38.57n/122.44w Mt.Saint Helena 1.93 in 0602 am 12/03 38.66n/122.61w Atlas Peak 1.87 in 0529 am 12/03 38.47n/122.26w Pope creek at Lake Berryessa 1.81 in 0600 am 12/03 38.63n/122.33w Napa County Airport 1.70 in 0554 am 12/03 38.21n/122.28w 6 ENE Yountville 1.64 in 0602 am 12/03 38.43n/122.25w Mt. George 1.62 in 0604 am 12/03 38.34n/122.21w 2 NNW Napa 1.44 in 0619 am 12/03 38.33n/122.32w 2 se Angwin 0.87 in 0617 am 12/03 38.56n/122.42w

...San Benito... 6 N Hollister 0.95 in 1028 PM 12/02 36.95n/121.41w 22 ENE King City 0.81 in 0550 am 12/03 36.36n/120.77w 3 SSE Hollister 0.73 in 0619 am 12/03 36.82n/121.38w Pinnacles RAWS 0.71 in 0602 am 12/03 36.47n/121.15w 14 se Hollister 0.65 in 0613 am 12/03 36.70n/121.22w 19 ENE King City 0.63 in 0607 am 12/03 36.38n/120.86w 2 ESE Hollister 0.63 in 0613 am 12/03 36.84n/121.36w Hollister 2.1 ESE 0.35 in 0704 PM 12/02 36.84n/121.36w 11 NNE Gonzales 0.32 in 0602 am 12/03 36.67n/121.36w 7 NNE Soledad 0.24 in 0602 am 12/03 36.53n/121.27w

...San Francisco... San Francisco downtown 2.06 in 0600 am 12/03 37.77n/122.43w farallon island 1.82 in 0615 am 12/03 37.70n/123.00w 2 SSW San Francisco 1.59 in 0616 am 12/03 37.74n/122.43w 2 NNE San Francisco 1.29 in 0620 am 12/03 37.80n/122.41w 3 WSW San Francisco 1.23 in 0613 am 12/03 37.75n/122.47w Ocean Beach 1.22 in 0617 am 12/03 37.77n/122.51w 3 N Broadmoor 1.20 in 0601 am 12/03 37.74n/122.47w

...San Mateo... San Bruno Mountain 3.62 in 0606 am 12/03 37.69n/122.45w 9 WNW Boulder Creek 2.92 in 0515 am 12/03 37.20n/122.27w La Honda RAWS 2.36 in 0607 am 12/03 37.31n/122.26w Emerald Lake hills 2.33 in 0617 am 12/03 37.48n/122.27w 1 WNW Emerald Lake hills 2.28 in 0602 am 12/03 37.47n/122.30w 4 SW Portola Valley 2.27 in 0608 am 12/03 37.32n/122.26w Spring Valley RAWS 1.99 in 0602 am 12/03 37.56n/122.44w Redwood City 1.97 in 0605 am 12/03 37.49n/122.21w San Francisco Airport 1.86 in 0556 am 12/03 37.66n/122.44w 1 se Woodside 1.80 in 0616 am 12/03 37.41n/122.24w 1 ESE Atherton 1.64 in 0613 am 12/03 37.45n/122.18w 1 WSW San Mateo 1.62 in 0616 am 12/03 37.55n/122.33w 2 SW Colma 1.49 in 0615 am 12/03 37.65n/122.47w 1 NNE Highlands 1.47 in 0618 am 12/03 37.53n/122.34w 1 W Belmont 1.44 in 0611 am 12/03 37.52n/122.31w 2 S Portola Valley 1.34 in 0610 am 12/03 37.33n/122.21w 1 N Belmont 1.29 in 0617 am 12/03 37.53n/122.30w Pescadero ck nr Pescadero 1.29 in 0600 am 12/03 37.26n/122.33w 1 SSW Foster City 1.18 in 0618 am 12/03 37.55n/122.26w 5 SW Portola Valley 1.12 in 0620 am 12/03 37.32n/122.27w 6 WSW Woodside 1.06 in 0614 am 12/03 37.39n/122.37w 1 W El Granada 0.59 in 0522 am 12/03 37.51n/122.49w 8 WSW Woodside 0.21 in 0900 PM 12/02 37.37n/122.39w

...Santa Clara... 3 SSE Lexington hills 3.55 in 0611 am 12/03 37.13n/121.95w Stevens Creek 3.39 in 0620 am 12/03 37.30n/122.09w Mt. Umunhum 3.19 in 0620 am 12/03 37.16n/121.90w 1 W Los Altos Hills 2.84 in 0613 am 12/03 37.37n/122.17w 1 WSW Lexington hills 2.73 in 0620 am 12/03 37.16n/121.99w Guadalupe watershed 2.52 in 0617 am 12/03 37.19n/121.89w 2 SW Saratoga 2.38 in 0620 am 12/03 37.24n/122.04w Los Altos Hills 2.37 in 0610 am 12/03 37.35n/122.14w Sunnyvale water polution con 2.33 in 0603 am 12/03 37.36n/122.06w Uvas Canyon County park 2.28 in 0618 am 12/03 37.09n/121.80w 1 SW Sunnyvale 2.23 in 0607 am 12/03 37.37n/122.05w Mt.View corp. Yard 2.20 in 0602 am 12/03 37.40n/122.05w Saratoga 2.19 in 0612 am 12/03 37.27n/122.02w Loma Prieta 2.17 in 0602 am 12/03 37.11n/121.84w Moffett field naval air stat 2.10 in 0556 am 12/03 37.42n/122.05w Palo Alto 2.01 in 0617 am 12/03 37.44n/122.11w vasona pump station 1.97 in 0617 am 12/03 37.26n/121.96w Guadalupe Slough 1.97 in 0602 am 12/03 37.46n/122.00w 5 NNW Day Valley 1.93 in 0432 am 12/03 37.11n/121.89w 2 SSE East Palo Alto 1.91 in 0620 am 12/03 37.44n/122.12w 2 E Los Altos 1.89 in 0620 am 12/03 37.36n/122.06w Almaden watershed 1.89 in 0602 am 12/03 37.16n/121.83w Rancho Rinconada 1.84 in 0613 am 12/03 37.31n/121.99w 4 ESE Los Gatos 1.84 in 0606 am 12/03 37.20n/121.90w west yard 1.82 in 0620 am 12/03 37.31n/122.00w 1 ESE Portola Valley 1.81 in 1241 am 12/03 37.36n/122.19w Johnson Ranch 1.77 in 0619 am 12/03 37.22n/121.93w 2 SSE East Palo Alto 1.77 in 0620 am 12/03 37.44n/122.12w Sunnyvale 1.75 in 0620 am 12/03 37.38n/122.03w 1 NNE Palo Alto 1.70 in 0616 am 12/03 37.41n/122.13w 2 NNW Cupertino 1.67 in 0615 am 12/03 37.34n/122.06w 3 S Sunnyvale 1.67 in 0620 am 12/03 37.35n/122.03w 1 SSE Santa Clara 1.66 in 0620 am 12/03 37.35n/121.96w calero 1.61 in 0602 am 12/03 37.17n/121.76w 2 NE Rancho Rinconada 1.56 in 0615 am 12/03 37.33n/121.98w 1 ESE Rancho Rinconada 1.54 in 0620 am 12/03 37.30n/121.98w 1 W Los Altos Hills 1.53 in 0620 am 12/03 37.37n/122.17w 3 WSW Cupertino 1.52 in 0620 am 12/03 37.30n/122.10w San Jose international airpo 1.49 in 0553 am 12/03 37.36n/121.92w Los Gatos RAWS 1.48 in 0532 am 12/03 37.20n/121.95w shanti Ashrama 1.42 in 0602 am 12/03 37.32n/121.47
Changes in the pattern are now showing up..

Quoting 701. hydrus:

Changes in the pattern are now showing up..




Hence the big high over Greenland.



Sunshine State Guts Solar Power Inducements at Behest of Fossil Fuel Industry

MARK KARLIN, EDITOR

Florida's state slogan - emblazoned on its license plates and welcome signs - may be "The Sunshine State," but the fossil fuel industry just got the state Public Service Commission to eliminate a household solar energy rebate program to stimulate use of the free and abundant energy source.

The sun may be a source of prodigious clean and free power, but even in a state where the sun is often hot enough to cook an egg on the hood of a car, the dinosaur polluting power companies have gotten their way. At stake were rebates to households to install rooftop solar units which would generate free - once constructed - energy that would be sold back to a for-profit utility grid. The fossil fuel giants - in this case including Duke Energy Florida, Tampa Electric, and Florida Power & Light, according to Clean Technica - lobbied the energy oversight agency in Florida and won a vote on November 25. The Tampa Bay Times writes of the triumph of greed and environmental degradation,

State regulators on Tuesday approved proposals to gut Florida's energy-efficiency goals by more than 90 percent and to terminate solar rebate programs by the end of 2015, giving the investor-owned utilities virtually everything they wanted....

Florida's utilities will go into the holidays with their biggest wishes this year, including billions of dollars in new power plants that will come online in the next decade.

The PSC, for instance, approved Duke Energy for a $1.5 billion natural gas plant that the utility wanted to replace the shuttered Crystal River nuclear plant that broke during a botched upgrade and maintenance project as well as two coal units the company plans to retire.

Although one can readily speculate that the profiteering polluters are threatened by a limitless supply of no-cost energy, there appears to be another business strategy at work here. As BuzzFlash at Truthout documented about a similar effort in Hawaii last year by a for-profit utility, use of solar panels by individual homes and buildings threatens to remove the monopoly on power generation by what are essentially public utilities that have a financial stranglehold over consumers.

If every home and business could generate their own power, electrical and natural gas companies would be faced with a decentralized community-based production of large amounts of energy. Needless to say, this would pose a possible death knell to companies that provide power via grids and gas pipelines. Down the line, these same polluting businesses may build solar farms and control the pricing and distribution of energy from the sun by pushing for further restrictions on household solar energy generation. In this way, they would, at a future point, maintain their near monopolies.

James Ayre, who wrote the column on Clean Technica observes:

The argument used by the utilities to justify the cuts was that the energy efficiency and solar rebate programs weren't cost-effective (nothing to do with cutting out competition, I'm sure) — as they argue that it's cheaper for them to produce a kilowatt of electricity than to save it.

But given that many, many other states throughout the country manage to save energy at a cheaper cost than generating it, that argument doesn't come across as very believable. But then, Florida politics have always been something of a hotbed of corruption and crime - so I'd be surprised if many in the state are all that surprised by the decision.

That means for now, the state that basks in sunshine will be at the mercy of a fossil fuel industry that is continuing to needlessly contribute to global warming and high energy costs by impeding the growth of home solar energy capture.
Seems the event I was going to hold in Boca come July..will NOW be moved to Mobile, Alabama.

Actions have consequences.
Quoting hydrus:
Changes in the pattern are now showing up..




i was thinking that we could not be posting deta about what the ecmwf has due too copyright
long...but not boring


Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Dec 08 - 12, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 10 - 16, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 02, 2014
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE DECEMBER 02 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 08 - 12 2014

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. A SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF IT OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FRECAST OVER THE EAST COAST. TODAY'S
MANUAL BLEND CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST OF STATES WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO EASTERN ALASKA,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE CHANCES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE PREDICTION OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND FAST, PROGRESSIVE FLOW ENHANCE CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 10 - 16 2014

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT A SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA, WITH A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A
RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF IT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR
THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE CHANCES FOR
NEAR TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN ALASKA AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS
AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11,
10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER: LUKE HE
Quoting 706. ricderr:

long...but not boring


Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Dec 08 - 12, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Dec 10 - 16, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Dec 02, 2014
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE DECEMBER 02 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 08 - 12 2014

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. A SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A TROUGH IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF IT OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FRECAST OVER THE EAST COAST. TODAY'S
MANUAL BLEND CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST OF STATES WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO EASTERN ALASKA,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA
AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THE CHANCES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE PREDICTION OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND FAST, PROGRESSIVE FLOW ENHANCE CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 10 - 16 2014

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT A SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA, WITH A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A
RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF IT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR
THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST WHERE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE CHANCES FOR
NEAR TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN ALASKA AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS
AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11,
10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER: LUKE HE


Forecaster Luke needs to revisit those ensemble means. Must be GW convention in the US this week but the looks of these NOAA forecast.
Arthur was also the earliest hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina since official records have been taken.
Kelvin Wave continues to grow stronger with now plus 5C anomalies showing up. That is impressive and could support a stronger El-Nino event than what is forecast if the atmosphere cooperates.

Quoting 705. Tazmanian:




i was thinking that we could not be posting deta about what the ecmwf has due too copyright
If that is the case, i wont post Euro chart anymore..Thank you.
Quoting 707. StormTrackerScott:



Forecaster Luke needs to revisit those ensemble means. Must be GW convention in the US this week but the looks of these NOAA forecast.


So basically a rex block over the intermountain and basin and a dominant southern jet. Yep, that's a result of the warmer SSTs along the West Coast compared to last year.

4 inches of rain thus far is the storm total at sea level here in the SF Bay Area. And very mild. Coastal SSTs still hovering around 60 F. Tremendous thunderstorms last night just offshore extending into the wine country in the north bay.
Quoting 711. hydrus:

If that is the case, i wont post Euro chart anymore..Thank you.


You can hydrus just not precip maps.
Quoting Patrap:



Sunshine State Guts Solar Power Inducements at Behest of Fossil Fuel Industry

MARK KARLIN, EDITOR

Florida's state slogan - emblazoned on its license plates and welcome signs - may be "The Sunshine State," but the fossil fuel industry just got the state Public Service Commission to eliminate a household solar energy rebate program to stimulate use of the free and abundant energy source.
So, in the State of Florida (governed by Republicans, and with Republican majorities in both the State House and the State Senate), the Public Services Commission (an organization with Republicans sitting in four of the five commission seats) listened to lobbyists and decided to back the greed of the deep-pocketed fossil fuel industry to the detriment of the state's air, its coasts, its overall environment, and its citizens.

Shame on them.

And shame on those who whine here that everyone keeps picking on the GOP for that party's anti-science, pro-pollution, profit-only stance.
In the new era of cheap, small, shorter-lived, and less accurate satellites...are there new 'nano' weather constellations planned that can take advantage of weather technology from the last 5 years?
Having some "baby" GRACE pairs of satellites to detect soil and groundwater moisture changes would be fantastic.
717. jpsb
Quoting 678. StormTrackerScott:

To be honest I suspect we will see something similar to what I have illustrated below and that is the trough will dig even further west than what the Euro shows now allowing for a Gulf system to ride up the eastern US.





Don’t Be Concerned By The Warm Start To December

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Changes now on the 12Z GFS. Will we see this track I have listed unfold now?

Climate change’s first victims are always those least to blame
The Yawanawá people of the Amazon never got to open the toybox of consumer capitalism. Yet they endure floods, displacement and dispossession
Lily Cole, theguardian.com, Wednesday 3 December 2014 15.15 GMT
In September 2014, a report published by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) found that 20.6 million people were displaced by extreme weather events in 2013. That’s almost three times as many as those fleeing current conflicts.
The number one cause of global relocation now is climate change – yet there is no international recognition for the status of climate change refugees, and no insurance policies for them. They are in the shadows of international media, and often have little access to support in their home countries.
In a cruel irony, some of the world’s most fragile communities – the ones most closely connected to the natural world, who have lived most sustainably and have had the least impact on our changing climate – are the first to suffer as a result of its changes. ...


World on course for warmest year
BBC, David Shukman, Science editor, 3 December 2014 Last updated at 15:02 GMT
This year is in the running to be the hottest globally and for the UK since records began, early estimates show.
In the first 10 months of 2014, global average air temperature was about 0.57 Celsius above the long-term average.
And the first eleven months in the UK have produced an average temperature 1.6C above the long-term.
A separate study by the UK Met Office says the observed temperatures would be highly unlikely without the influence of greenhouse gases produced by humans. ...


Whole articles see links above.
I have a convention in February..the 13-14th to be exact..Now I should just keep my mouth shut to not jinx anything..

CWG has a article on Hagupit.I just hope the storm doesn't turn out to be a hag (see what I did there?)
Quoting 693. CybrTeddy:

Hagupit is about to pop out an absolutely massive eye.



I'm impressed. As soon as the eye clears out, Dvorak estimates are going to go bonkers.

723. jpsb
Quoting 714. Neapolitan:

So, in the State of Florida (governed by Republicans, and with Republican majorities in both the State House and the State Senate), the Public Services Commission (an organization with Republicans sitting in four of the five commission seats) listened to lobbyists and decided to back the greed of the deep-pocketed fossil fuel industry to the detriment of the state's air, its coasts, its overall environment, and its citizens.

Shame on them.

And shame on those who whine here that everyone keeps picking on the GOP for that party's anti-science, pro-pollution, profit-only stance.


Maybe they are just trying to save the hard working Florida tax payer a few bucks?
Quoting jpsb:


Maybe they are just trying to save the hard working Florida tax payer a few bucks?
By polluting our waterways? Despoiling our air? Making people sick? Helping to raise sea levels that'll cause massive and extremely expensive workarounds?

I suppose. But I think it's far more likely that they're simply greedy ideologues out of touch with reality...
Sub tropical jet looks healthy a week out.



Central Texas might get wet.



Quoting 724. Neapolitan:

By polluting our waterways? Despoiling our air? Making people sick? Helping to raise sea levels that'll cause massive and extremely expensive workarounds?

I suppose. But I think it's far more likely that they're simply greedy ideologues out of touch with reality...
Greed is by far "the worst " of the 7 deadly..JMO
Kelvin Wave continues to grow stronger with now plus 5C anomalies showing up. That is impressive and could support a stronger El-Nino event than what is forecast if the atmosphere cooperates.


ok...sorry folks....broken record time again.......the kelvin wave cannot grow stronger...there's no heat engine to warm this water further.....to an extent...at this time of year...it can only grow colder as it relates to the surrounding waters.....the chart...is an anomaly chart...and so what we are seeing...is as the pacific cools this time of year....the anomaly grows greater....we saw the converse effect this summer.....as the last kelvin wave approached....we saw anomalies of 8 and greater....as it propagated east....and with the spring and summer pacific waters warming...the anomalies became less and less
Quoting 722. 1900hurricane:


I'm impressed. As soon as the eye clears out, Dvorak estimates are going to go bonkers.


Yes. As it is now just about CAT5, we can see it is forming a near perfect circle. Dejaj Vu
GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) model is now saying a fast westerly direction track. AVNO & NVGM ar saying a slower track and movement north-northwest
CAT 5 Wind: 290 km/h. Gusts: 354 km/h