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2014 Holiday Shopping Guide for the Weather and Climate Change Enthusiast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:02 PM GMT on November 28, 2014

Every serious weather enthusiast deserves a Personal Weather Station (PWS) in their backyard! Not only can you enjoy seeing what the weather is in your backyard, you can share the data with everyone else on the Internet by uploading to the Wunderground Personal Weather Station network, which boasts data from over 30,000 stations. You don’t need to have a computer on all the time to collect the data and send it to the Internet—a company called Ambient makes a weather bridge that will keep the data flowing to the Internet even when your computer is turned off. A full list of wunderground-compatible PWS models, software, and add-ons like the Ambient WeatherBridge is available from our Personal Weather Station page, or check out our "promotions" page which highlights special deals for our WU users.



Weather station for a smart phone: Netatmo
The Netatmo Weather Monitor ($179) contains a unique set of sensors to monitor your living environment and wirelessly transmits all your data to your Smartphone. The Netatmo App displays your station’s indoor and outdoor measurements into clear and comprehensive dashboards, graphs and notifications.

A low-end PWS choice: Davis Vantage Vue
The Davis Vantage Vue + WeatherBridge Package is $595 from ambientweather.com. Combine the convenience of WeatherBridge with Davis Instruments' Vantage Vue™ station which is fully featured, highly accurate and affordably priced.

A high-end PWS choice: Rainwise
I have had a Davis Vantage Pro2 in my backyard for the past six years, and have been very happy with it, but I also recommend the RainWise Direct to Weather Underground Package, $999 from rainwise.com. The RainWise RapidFire™ enabled weather station doesn't need a PC to upload to us, and with an ultra-fast refresh rate of every 3-5 seconds, new data is updated instantly.

A webcam choice: Ubiquiti Networks AirCam
The AirCam Indoor/Outdoor IP Camera from Ubiquiti Networks ($103) combines advanced industrial design, powerful performance, and market-leading cost effectiveness.


Figure 1. A prototype Air Umbrella.

An air umbrella? No way!
Since the invention of the umbrella 3,000 years ago, not much has changed in its design. The revolutionary Air Umbrella, from designers in Nanjing, China, aims do away with the frustration of inside-out metal ribs during a strong wind, by creating an overhead dome of jetted air that shields you from the rain. It might also be handy for keeping ash off of your head during a volcanic eruption! So far, the Air Umbrella is just an idea, but the project raised over $100,000 in October 2014 in a KickStarter campaign (ten times their $10,000 goal). The designers aim to have Air Umbrellas available for purchase in December of next year.

Holiday books for the climate science enthusiast
If you're bewildered by the complexity of the climate change/global warming issue, and want a comprehensive, easy-to-understand guide that presents an unbiased view of the important issues, look no further than Robert Henson's ”The Thinking Person’s Guide to Climate Change”, published in August 2014. The book is an updated version of his "Rough Guide to Climate Change", which I reviewed back in 2008. I've thought so highly of this book that I've purchased over 200 copies over the years, giving them to students, TV meteorologists, politicians running for U.S. Congress, and the leadership of The Weather Channel. If I were teaching a course on climate change at the high school or introductory college level, this would be the text. Mr. Henson is probably the world's premier science writer in meteorology and climate change, and has been a writer/editor/media relations specialist since 1990 for the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, where he updates their their excellent AtmosNews website. The Big News: I'm pleased to announce that Bob will be leaving NCAR in early January and joining Wunderground, where he will be making regular posts in my blog on weather and climate change topics. ”The Thinking Person’s Guide to Climate Change” is $20.90 from Amazon.com. I give it five stars out of five.

“This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate”, by Naomi Klein, is my #1 must-read climate change book of 2014. This book has relatively little to say about the science of climate change, but rather focuses on how the climate change crisis has its roots in the unsustainable form of neo-liberal capitalism that dominates the global economy. Klein writes, "Our economic system and our planetary system are now at war. What the climate needs to avoid collapse is a contraction in humanity's use of resources; what our economic model demands to avoid collapse is unfettered expansion. Only one of these sets of rules can be changed, and it's not the laws of nature." Ms. Klein discusses how we must make radical changes to rein in corporate power, rebuild local economies, and restore democracy in order to reform a corrupt out-of-control political and economic system that is wrecking the natural systems needed to sustain life. The changes needed are daunting and will not come from the existing political power structure, she argues. The changes must come from below, from the the rapidly evolving social movements that are rising to combat the crisis. Naomi Klein is a journalist who wrote the #1 international best seller The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, and is a contributing editor for Harper's Magazine, a reporter for Rolling Stone, and a syndicated columnist for The Nation and The Guardian. The New Yorker called her "the most visible and influential figure on the American left," and many conservatives will find the philosophy espoused in her book abhorrent. The paperback version of “This Changes Everything” is $14.17 from Amazon.com. I give it four stars out of five.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
Surprise
Surprise
Was not going to go out in the strong wind for the sunrise. Looking at photos on WUG and turned around to see this. I made a bee line, sliding on ice to capture this. We don't have clouds like this in North Carolina. From my son's back yard.

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting flsky:
They do a good job of maintaining dunes in Ponce Inlet, FL. A lot of walkovers.


We have some walk overs at the State Parks/Beaches. But the dunes are not impressive at all, maybe 1-2' high if that. But they do helps protect the vegetation.
I surf at a lot of beaches on the Eastcoast of Florida and most the public parks have nice walk overs.
Over in West Palm Beach there's a lot of increased elevation once you leave the beach. We don't have that. The beaches in S.W. Florida have very little elevation rise.
503. flsky
At least they have a sea wall.
Quoting 407. bwi:



Wow, they got less beach and a 5 lane highway with a suicide turn lane instead of a nice two lane road with angle parking. Lovely -- Not. Remind me not to go to Fort Lauderdale.
Quoting 423. tennesseebound:

Carbon dioxide is NOT a pollutant. If plants had their way, there would be WAY more of it in the atmosphere. In the past, there WAS a lot more of it. Life seemed to thrive. Climate Change. The phrase means nothing. There has been and always will be climate change. Even if the United States reduced its carbon dioxide emissions to zero, it wouldn't change the atmospheric level at all. As long as China, India and every other exempt or non-participating country keeps emitting, nothing will change. So, relax and worry about more important things that you might have a modicum of control over.


Maybe you're right. Maybe there would be way more CO2 in the atmosphere if plants had it their way - that is if plants weren't knowledgeable enough to know about indirect effects of way more CO2, or if they were cherry-picking only information that suited a certain agenda, even if doing so would harm them in the long run.

It turns out that adding CO2 also has a heating effect. Did you know that higher temperatures are already starting to hurt crop production in some areas?

Human-caused climate change can also cause extremes in drought and flood. Most crops don't do so well with such precipitation extremes.

What most scientists do is look at all of the factors that would affect crops and other plants from increased CO2, instead of looking at just one. This way they can get a more accurate view of reality, as opposed to pursuing an unreality.

Human-caused climate change is expected to have a net negative effect on crop production in coming decades.

Note that flora and fauna can adapt only so fast to a changing local climate.

Maybe we can look into the effects of ocean acidification, which is caused by CO2 emissions, another day.
Quoting 461. Drakoen:


Progressive pattern will likely dominate the first two weeks or so of December with greater chance eastern U.S. action afterwards as the MJO makes it into octant 8.



The first 7-10 days yes. Beyond that, the floodgates reopen!

Starting to get some small hits now. Wasn't measurable here....
Umph. Very last post for tonight, I swear:

The Storm: Don't go out!
Icland Review, by Benedikt Johannesson, November 30, 2014 21:58
From all over the country there are news of roof plates blowing off, windows breaking, trees falling, etc. About 350 people have been called out on search and rescue missions. The worst weather is in the Keflavik area at the moment, but winds are very strong in many parts of the country.
Iceland Met warns: Dangerous wind gusts may be expected (up to or over 50 m/s) north and east of mountains in the north part from late evening until Monday morning.
Exactly now the wind in Reykjavik sounds like it might blow any building apart and as good journalists we will go out. If you hear nothing more there is either no news or we will not return.


(Comment by me: there aren't many trees in Iceland, and they are used to bad windstorms all over the year. So this one is likely very nasty, but they haven't lost their humour according to the last remarks of this article.)

Edit: Iceland's live streaming webcams.




Current winds in Iceland.
Quoting 506. PedleyCA:


Starting to get some small hits now. Wasn't measurable here....


0.3 inches so far here. Some heavier stuff getting close on radar now.
Quoting 508. barbamz:

Umph. Very last post for tonight, I swear:

The Storm: Don't go out!
Icland Review, by Benedikt Johannesson, November 30, 2014 21:58
From all over the country there are news of roof plates blowing off, windows breaking, trees falling, etc. About 350 people have been called out on search and rescue missions. The worst weather is in the Keflavik area at the moment, but winds are very strong in many parts of the country.
Iceland Met warns: Dangerous wind gusts may be expected (up to or over 50 m/s) north and east of mountains in the north part from late evening until Monday morning.
Exactly now the wind in Reykjavik sounds like it might blow any building apart and as good journalists we will go out. If you hear nothing more there is either no news or we will not return.


(Comment by me: there aren't many trees in Iceland, and they are used to bad windstorms all over the year. So this one is likely very nasty.)




50 m / s = 180 km / hr = about 112 MPH
Quoting 509. TimSoCal:



0.3 inches so far here. Some heavier stuff getting close on radar now.

Did you do a Rain Dance over there?
GEOS-5 has been showing the possible storm NHC was referencing.

It went from 70 to 43 within 2 hours.
Quoting 506. PedleyCA:


Starting to get some small hits now. Wasn't measurable here....


It's too small to measure, Ped?
The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season is just 3 GOES East images away from being officially over!

The full-season animation is standing by for final rendering and uploading to YouTube.

It will be available later this evening!

We maybe watching that storm that left Morocco flood across the Mediterranean Sea for the next week.
Tuesday..

Still there with more rain next Sunday.

Italy next Monday.. Then rains out to the west of there like these storms have been doing.
and another video from Morocco showing a house being swept away by the floods:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZFsJav4zFw
Look at this developing monster. Still only at about 3.5N, very low latitude for a tropical cyclone. Conditions look great for it. I'd say odds favor it peaking as at least a Cat 3 equivalent, maybe stronger. The big question will be the track. Does it head west into the Philippines, as the ECMWF shows, or does it recurve north, as the GFS shows? The latter scenario could potentially have consequences on the pattern here in the US (remember Nuri?)

Quoting 494. 62901IL:

A freezing rain adviosry has been issued for my area. 3am to Noon Monday.
And here, my friends, the ICE storm song!

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
An ICE storm is on the way
(Clap)

ICE storms are real cool
So get outside and FREEZE.
A little bit of ICE is coming
It can knock down power lines
(Clap)

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
An ICE Storm is on the way
(Clap)

The rain is freesing on contact
The temprature is dropping
The power's on
The schools are closed
The ICE storm is now here
(Clap)

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
The ICE storm is now here
(Clap)

The rain is gettinbg harder
The roads are ICED up
There's been some crashes
But not too many
The ICE storm's become dangerous.
(Clap)

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
It's kind of dangerous
(Clap)

The rain is letting up
The clouds are moving out
The schools are open
We survived
The ICE storm is now gone
(Clap)

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
The ICE storm is now gone
(Clap)

I sure understand the wrath of an ice storm per experience in Illinois. And then thought it was going to happen on the Gulf Coast this past January. The freezing rain started to accumulate, but the bulk of the storm ended up going north. I know I've explained this before, but we narrowly missed a DISASTER, I remember when they still thought it was going be a big ice event, the forecast discussion said "possibly worse impacts than a tropical cyclone." The area is filled with leaning pine trees and most everything is evergreen, which from what I witnessed in Illinois, the evergreen trees took it the hardest. Trees like below are everywhere around the area, again, the Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast narrowly missed a crippling disaster. Power outages would have been terrible and so many blocked roads.


Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Look at this developing monster. Still only at about 3.5N, very low latitude for a tropical cyclone. Conditions look great for it. I'd say odds favor it peaking as at least a Cat 3 equivalent, maybe stronger. The big question will be the track. Does it head west into the Philippines, as the ECMWF shows, or does it recurve north, as the GFS shows? The latter scenario could potentially have consequences on the pattern here in the US (remember Nuri?)



That seems to be the hotspot for monster Typhoons this late in the year as of late, Bopha and Haiyan for example.
Quoting 492. barbamz:


Saved current track of Xandra's lightnings/thunderstorms (unusual for this time of the year! source) hitting especially Catalonia/Spain, French Riviera especially at Nice (and Monaco) near the border to Italy (while the region of Languedoc-Roussillon/France remains on red alert because of flash flooding) and the French island of Corsica at its capital Ajaccio and further inland (Corsica has high mountains up to 5,900 ft).


Current rain map (saved). Click to enlarge.




Xandra's winds were in fact impressive with sustained winds of 79 kph (43 kn) and gusting to 135 kph (73 kn)
http://www.meteociel.fr/temps-reel/obs_villes.php ?code2=7678&jour2=30&mois2=10&annee2=2014
http://www.meteociel.fr/temps-reel/obs_villes.php ?code2=7670&jour2=29&mois2=10&annee2=2014

And at the place, called Lugo di Nazza, on Corsica island, 480.4 mm (18.9 in) of rain fell on the 28 th, of which about 216.1 mm (8.5 in) fell in the three hours between 14 UTC and 17 UTC!
http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2431/20141128_Lugo_ jyw5.png
A mild day, and mild week ahead! 41/73 today but should have similar highs and lows in low 50s this week. 0.34" on Wednesday after midnight for a total of 3.65" last Sunday-Wednesday. Foggy at night. Air feels soft.
Long way out , but I have a hunch this storm will develop , and will be a significant storm for the Appalachians.



524. jpsb
Quoting 504. DCSwithunderscores:





It turns out that adding CO2 also has a heating effect. Did you know that higher temperatures are already starting to hurt crop production in some areas?




Meanwhile back on planet Earth

Just a beautiful week coming up for West Palm. Morning lows a little above average...

Quoting 514. Dakster:



It's too small to measure, Ped?


Yup, that's it...
IT'S OVER...OFFICIALLY!
Quoting 524. jpsb:



Meanwhile back on planet Earth





What is the purpose of your posting of that image?

I hope that you aren't using that arctic sea ice and snow cover map to suggest that Earth is not warmer than say the 20th century average (let alone record warm lately). I'm not a sucker for that. Have you looked at the trends in yearly minimum arctic sea ice extent, area, and volume, over the past 35 years?

Are you aware that we just had our record hottest 12-calendar-month period globally, according to NCDC?

The trend in arctic sea ice is evidence of warming, the global average temperature is evidence of warming, movements of flora and fauna are evidence of warming, changes in land ice are evidence of warming, ocean temperature changes are evidence of warming, measurements of Earth's energy balance (incoming energy and outgoing energy) is evidence of warming.

Yes, we still have arctic sea ice, albeit less than 35 years ago.
Quoting 528. DCSwithunderscores:




What is the purpose of your posting of that image?

I hope that you aren't using that arctic sea ice map to suggest that Earth is not warmer than say the 20th century average (let alone record warm lately), because I'm not a sucker for that. Have you looked at the trends in yearly minimum arctic sea ice extent, area, and volume, over the past 35 years.

Are you aware that we just had our record hottest 12-calendar-month period globally, according to NCDC?

The trend in arctic sea ice is evidence of warming, the global average temperature is evidence of warming, movements of flora and fauna are evidence of warming, changes in land ice are evidence of warming, ocean temperature changes are evidence of warming, measurements of Earth's energy balance (incoming energy and outgoing energy) is evidence of warming.

Yes, we still have arctic sea ice, albeit less than 35 tears ago.
Could jpsb be Bastardi.?...:)
Quoting 527. CycloneOz:

IT'S OVER...OFFICIALLY!


Quoting hydrus:
Long way out , but I have a hunch this storm will develop , and will be a significant storm for the Appalachians.



That's cold.
Quoting 525. GeoffreyWPB:

Just a beautiful week coming up for West Palm. Morning lows a little above average...



Yeah, going to be shockingly warm the next 7+ days even up in the Panhandle. I hope all the northern-type deciduous trees don't get too confused.

This is actually very similar to last year at least from my experience, much of December was warmish and uneventful, but once January hit, it was a like a switch was flipped.
Quoting 518. MAweatherboy1:

Look at this developing monster. Still only at about 3.5N, very low latitude for a tropical cyclone. Conditions look great for it. I'd say odds favor it peaking as at least a Cat 3 equivalent, maybe stronger. The big question will be the track. Does it head west into the Philippines, as the ECMWF shows, or does it recurve north, as the GFS shows? The latter scenario could potentially have consequences on the pattern here in the US (remember Nuri?)




Even if it hits the Philippines(I hope not) I think it should still eventually recurve.
Quoting 527. CycloneOz:

IT'S OVER...OFFICIALLY!


Still November 30th here Oz....
Quoting Dakster:


Still November 30th here Oz....


Hurricane season rocks on UTC time.
Quoting 523. hydrus:

Long way out , but I have a hunch this storm will develop , and will be a significant storm for the Appalachians.





Haha, yes. I'll take anything over doldrums weather.
Had heard a little about this before, didn't realize it was that bad.




Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
Wow...just wow if that verifies. Smell a major snowstorm by mid-December.

Quoting 529. hydrus:


00z Best Track for 95W.

95W INVEST 141201 0000 3.8N 154.0E WPAC 25 1004
Quoting 535. Dakster:



Still November 30th here Oz....


The Fat Lady didn't Sing Yet....
Quoting 529. hydrus:




Yikes...
Quoting 533. opal92nwf:


Yeah, going to be shockingly warm the next 7 days even up in the Panhandle. I hope all the northern-type deciduous trees don't get too confused.

This is actually very similar to last year at least from my experience, much of December was warmish and uneventful, but once January hit, it was a like a switch was flipped.


Deciduous trees need some chilling hours below 43F before they will bud and grow again. In the extreme southern part of their range they bud hesitantly and slowly in the warmer weather of spring whereas further north when the weather warms, the burst into growth. I've often said that maples in Tallahassee in late March look like you feel when the alarm went off at 3:AM after you couldn't get to bed until after midnight. Warm weather at this time of year won't make them bud. If it persists all winter the trees will suffer because they won't get their chilling time. Even in the DC area, a long period of upper 70s in late November ( it's happened) won't cause budding and growth whereas a similar period in February or early March will (and did in 1976 and 2012).

For DC cherry blossoms the best setup for early peak is cold early winter followed by mild late winter and warm early spring. The 1989-90 season met all of these requirements and cherry trees peaked March 15, record early. Even in 2012 with the much (incredibly much) warmer March they weren't that early. December 2011 and January 2012 were mild and chilling hours were slower to accumulate.
Quoting PedleyCA:


The Fat Lady didn't Sing Yet....


Oh yes she did...

It is now December 1st, 2014 - 00:43 UTC

Hurricane Season's time function is UTC driven.
Quoting 543. PedleyCA:



Yikes...
Now this is what we should see for winter.Not that filthy spring crap that will dominate the pattern for 2 weeks.
Hence I can't get lilacs to bloom in SC. Major bummer.

Someone might have luck in the upstate mountain areas, but not here. Can't get enough chill hours. The tree will grow, just no flowers.

I have heard rumor of hybrids that are successfully blooming in Texas.

Quoting 544. georgevandenberghe:



Deciduous trees need some chilling hours below 43F before they will bud and grow again. In the extreme southern part of their range they bud hesitantly and slowly in the warmer weather of spring whereas further north when the weather warms, the burst into growth. I've often said that maples in Tallahassee in late March look like you feel when the alarm went off at 3"AM after a really short night. Warm weather at this time of year won't make them bud. If it persists all winter the trees will suffer because they won't get their chilling time. Even in the DC area, a long period of upper 70s in late November ( it's happened) won't cause budding and growth whereas a similar period in February or early March will (and did in 1976 and 2012).

For DC cherry blossoms the best setup for early peak is cold early winter followed by mild late winter and warm early spring. The 1989-90 season met all of these requirements and cherry trees peaked March 15, record early. Even in 2012 with the much (incredibly much) warmer March they weren't that early. December 2011 and January 2012 were mild and chilling hours were slower to accumulate.
First warning by JTWC as 95W is now TD 22W.Peaks at 100kts but is the first warning and changes may occur.They go with the GFS scenario of recurving.

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June/November - GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation is completed and is currently being uploaded to YouTube.

YouTube is telling me that 279 minutes remain in the upload (approx 4.5 hours.)

I will post the video here when it is complete. The direct link to the video will be:

http://youtu.be/Q790cnYqeKg

There is uncertainty on the long range track but they went with the recurve over the ECMWF west track.

WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
255 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI AND PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 22W IS LOCATED IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTERLY OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST
TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND
REFLECTS AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING STR THROUGH TAU 72, AT WHICH TIME
TD 22W WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. EXPECT TD
22W TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TAU XX, WHERE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS
LEADS TO THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, WHICH IS
CONSERVATIVE AT TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO THE RELATIVELY FAST TRACK
SPEEDS, HOWEVER, A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM REACHES A COL AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ROUNDING THE STR AND RECURVING OR CONTINUING TO THE
WEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 5TH DAY FORECAST DUE
TO A LACK IN INITIAL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT
GROUPING OF DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH TAU 96.//
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
9:00 AM JST December 1 2014
==================================
Near Chuuk (Truks)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 3.7N 153.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 5.7N 149.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Quoting 524. jpsb:



Meanwhile back on planet Earth


Yep, happens every year about this time -- but less snow and ice depth than normal, and on average decreasing steadily. It will look sort of like that for a few more years, so you can keep thinking there's nothing wrong. But the Jet Stream is noticing the difference.
554. OCF
Pretty good shower happening right now in Long Beach, CA. Looks from the radar loop like it just developed right on top of us, and then isn't moving very fast. So even if Tuesday's rain event finds some way to fizzle, we got at least something out of it now.
Quoting 552. CaneFreeCR:

Yep, happens every year about this time -- but less snow and ice depth than normal, and on average decreasing steadily. It will look sort of like that for a few more years, so you can keep thinking there's nothing wrong. But the Jet Stream is noticing the difference.


Specifics are needed when you are referring to where there will be less snow & ice, actually since at least the late 1990s, we have observed increases in the Eurasian snowpack particularly in the fall & winter, and I would suggest reading through this article co-authored by Judah Cohen on the premise of "arctic amplification" before arriving at confident conclusions. As is noted in this paper, climate models are having a great difficulty handling the ongoing phenomena & concept of cool continents & warm arctic in the winter. Although the arctic sea ice amplification mechanism is among the most supported in the scientific community at the moment, it lacks vigorous statistical support/linkage, however it does stand as a formidable hypothesis nonetheless...

Link


Quoting 555. Webberweather53:



Specifics are needed when you are referring to where there will be less snow & ice, actually since at least the late 1990s, we have observed increases in the Eurasian snowpack particularly in the fall & winter, and I would suggest reading through this article co-authored by Judah Cohen on the premise of "arctic amplification" before arriving at confident conclusions. As is noted in this paper, climate models are having a great difficulty handling the ongoing phenomena & concept of cool continents & warm arctic in the winter. Although the arctic sea ice amplification mechanism is among the most supported in the scientific community at the moment, it lacks vigorous statistical support/linkage, however it does stand as a formidable hypothesis nonetheless...

Link


Hey Webber, what's your take on Scribbler's recent article pointing out the surface pattern flowing around Greenland being displaced from it's usual flow around the Arctic Sea Ice pack? Link

It seems like it can certainly give some credence to the Francis/Hansen theories.
557. bwi
Quoting 546. washingtonian115:

Now this is what we should see for winter.Not that filthy spring crap that will dominate the pattern for 2 weeks.



hmmm no i dont want too see this this winter your little winter fun you guys are haveing back E is costing CA wells are going dry lakes are droping we need RAIN and losts of it and i dont want a pattern like we had last year that was way to dry i want a nic spring pattern for the back E and mid W at lest we here in CA would get some nic storms out of it and not a blocking high of doom

if you want snow and cold washiton115 why not you move up in too canada you love it if your in too all the time cold and snow same gos for ever one else thats like snow and cold go move too canada here in CA we need Rain Rain and more RAIN and so far that polor vortex that we had last year that block a lot of storm for CA has not return and i hop it dos not i no we had some cold snaps this fall and winter for the mid W and E but nothing like last year this year is a lot warmer for ever one wish is good news for CA wamer for the mid W and E wetter for the state of CA and that is this the way i like it CA has got in off too a good start whats keep it going with the rain
Quoting 555. Webberweather53:


Specifics are needed when you are referring to where there will be less snow & ice, actually since at least the late 1990s, we have observed increases in the Eurasian snowpack particularly in the fall & winter, and I would suggest reading through this article co-authored by Judah Cohen on the premise of "arctic amplification" before arriving at confident conclusions. As is noted in this paper, climate models are having a great difficulty handling the ongoing phenomena & concept of cool continents & warm arctic in the winter. Although the arctic sea ice amplification mechanism is among the most supported in the scientific community at the moment, it lacks vigorous statistical support/linkage, however it does stand as a formidable hypothesis nonetheless...
Link


To be honest, I can somewhat buy into the idea that lowering arctic sea ice is playing a significant role in spiking Fall/Winter Eurasian snow cover given the 1990 IPCC graph of arctic sea ice (which should be taken w/ a grain of salt given it's outside the satellite era & the IPCC has since changed this graphic as early as 2001 in Working Group I to show abnormally high sea ice extent in the mid 1970s, which would effectively cast more doubt on the arctic amplification hypothesis) showing it near anomalously low levels in the mid 1970s,


which do correspond with some of the big Eurasian snow years in this era, including the record-breaker of 1976

Tazmanian
No I like where I'am ;).Doesn't look like the pattern will be on your side this winter.
Quoting 560. washingtonian115:

Tazmanian
No I like where I'am ;).Doesn't look like the pattern will be on your side this winter.



you have no idea what your talking about my friend


any ways am ending this dont want a banned


back too lurk mode
NWS Tiyan Guam
"Tropical Depression 22W"
===============================

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH has been issued for Puluwat and Satawal in Chuuk State

A TYPHOON WATCH has been issued for Faraulep and Woleai in Yap State
Quoting 556. Naga5000:





Hey Webber, what's your take on Scribbler's recent article pointing out the surface pattern flowing around Greenland being displaced from it's usual flow around the Arctic Sea Ice pack? Link

It seems like it can certainly give some credence to the Francis/Hansen theories.


This general pattern this November has the fingerprints of a high fall northern hemisphere snowpack...

The massive scandinavian ridge which is typically a prevalent feature in a pattern like this is getting a boost from the persistence of the classic Atlantic positive Tripole SST distribution which has continued to encourage substantial undercutting over the North Atlantic (it's a chicken-egg argument in the end, inadvertently this received a lot of help from the anticyclonic wave breaking event over the North Pacific thanks in part to Nuri's incredible intensification as it underwent extratropical transition & merged with a cold-core Siberian vort max that was temporarily delaying the expansion of the Siberian High) is a likely reason why this Scandinavian block is so intrusive & retrograded westward towards Greenland, while coinciding with the Alaskan Omega Ridge to attempt at classic wave #2 split of the polar vortex, (it was somewhat successful in the troposphere, w/ however, it's still a bit too early for a full-blown split or obliteration, that is more likely as we get near & into January. Also knowing the kind of SST signal I'm seeing from the North Atlantic, the fact that we may be entering into a renewed negative multidecadal AO/NAO base state, etc. blocking will more than likely be prevalent over this region & I would look out for intraseasonal bursts w/ the proper dynamical support from the MJO (eastward progression thru phase 6-8), a sudden stratospheric warming event, etc.

I honestly don't have many issues with the theories being presented by Hansen & Francis as I can understand where they're coming from & grasp the science that is being promulgated, but I do think the poster of that article was overzealous in the way he presented his information & he could have been a bit more monotone as outsiders who aren't nearly as open to the idea of AGW may view that as more alarmist rhetoric even though much of what was stated had a factual foundation.
Washi - Do you have snow right now?
What's Up Dak?
Quoting 565. PedleyCA:

What's Up Dak?


Not much. Sitting by the fire. 19F out and snow on the ground. Everyone's yard looks the same.

WHat about you, Ped?
Quoting 566. Dakster:



Not much. Sitting by the fire. 19F out and snow on the ground. Everyone's yard looks the same.

WHat about you, Ped?


Just waiting for the Skys to open up. Just light misty kind of rain. Still got 0.00
Tuesdays Rain Chance now 90%...
Quoting 567. PedleyCA:



Just waiting for the Skys to open up. Just light misty kind of rain. Still got 0.00
Tuesdays Rain Chance now 90%...


At least you should be getting rid of the dry air. Of course sometimes when the rain starts, it doesn't stop for a long, long time...
Quoting 568. Dakster:



At least you should be getting rid of the dry air. Of course sometimes when the rain starts, it doesn't stop for a long, long time...


Right, I don't want 40 Days & 40 Nights...
Well here we only have 1hr29 minutes of the hurricane season and until meteorological winter begins. So I will be saying"goodbye hurricane season and hello winter."
Quoting opal92nwf:

Had heard a little about this before, didn't realize it was that bad.
The Montreal ice storm is probably the worst to affect a major metropolitan area in modern history. Unbelievably, the Slovenia ice storm in February, 2014 was even worse. They had freezing rain and sleet for 70 hours straight. The ice thickness varied between 4 and 8 inches in various parts of the country. The ice was so thick that it literally encased things like cars in a tomb of ice. Slovenia's railways, which had completely electrification only last year, was heavily damaged by the ice, which destroyed most of the overhead wire. The loss of electricity in the areas of Slovenia most affected by ice was 100%. About half of Slovenia's extensive forests were destroyed as thousand of acres just collapsed under the ice load.

The surrounding EU countries sent massive amounts of aid including trainloads of emergency generators and diesel locomotives so freight could be moved on the now dead lines. This was a disaster far beyond the resources of tiny Slovenia, with a population less then that of Montreal. It took three weeks to restore most of the power. Slovenia's forests look as though they were hit by a bomb. The physical and economic damage is estimated to have been $500 million, about 1% of the country's entire GDP. This is the kind of event that, if it occurred on a larger scale and affected an area with more population, would easily be among the top 10 worst weather disasters in modern history.



Just thought I would drop this by while I try to deal with tonight's mid-season finale of The Walking Dead.

Australia has its warmest November on record
Quoting PedleyCA:


Right, I don't want 40 Days & 40 Nights...
It can sure seem like it sometimes. I don't know if you were in southern California for January and February of 1970, but the rain was almost never ending. I think we had something like 6 rain-free days for the two months. It had been exceedingly dry the previous year, with the usual wildfires as a result. The flooding and landslides as these rains hit was terrible. The lowland flooding was also bad, with every route north and east out of LA cut off for a couple of days. It's about the only time I lived there that I prayed for the rain to stop.

Los Angeles County Coast including Downtown Los AngelesSevere Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather RadioSpecial StatementStatement as of 7:39 PM PST on November 30, 2014

...A Pacific storm system may bring significant rain to much of southwestern California Tuesday into Wednesday...

A strong upper level low pressure system will continue to develop in the eastern Pacific...then slowly approach the West Coast through Tuesday. This storm has the potential to bring a period of heavy rainfall to much of southwest California Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

There is a chance that rain could develop across much of the region late Monday night. The strong upper low will begin to approach the West Coast on Tuesday. Strengthening south to southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this storm is expected to tap into a rich subtropical moisture source well off the coast of Mexico...increasing the potential for heavy rainfall.

While there is still some uncertainty with respect to the exact timing of the heaviest rain and the ultimate rainfall totals...the potential exists for 1 to 2 inches of rain in coastal and valley areas...with 2 to 5 inches in the foothills and mountains. The one main concern at this point is the amount of low level easterly flow that could develop on Tuesday which could help to diminish the earlier rainfall estimates. It appears that rain will become most widespread and heaviest on Tuesday...lingering across Los Angeles County on Tuesday evening.

There is the potential of a 2 to 3 hour burst of heavy rainfall with this system on Tuesday...where rainfall rates around one half inch per hour will be possible. Rainfall rates of this intensity could bring the threat of flash flooding and mud and debris flows to locations in and around recent burn areas. As we draw closer to the event...a Flash Flood Watch may need to be issued for the recent burn areas. Additional rock and mudslides will also be possible in non-burn areas...especially along Highway 1 and canyon roads in the Santa Monica Mountains.

Other potential impacts from this storm system include gusty southeast to south winds on Tuesday...especially across higher terrain where gusts over 50 mph will be possible. The subtropical nature of this moisture will likely keep snow levels very high...generally above 7500 feet through at least Tuesday night. Scattered showers behind the main front will likely linger into Wednesday or Wednesday night...and snow levels would lower some at that time.

Residents across the Southland...especially those who live near the recent burn areas...such as the Colby and Springs burn areas should monitor the latest National Weather Service forecasts and statements about this potentially significant storm system.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite local media outlet for the latest updates on this storm system.

Gomberg/Hall

Quoting 539. opal92nwf:

Had heard a little about this before, didn't realize it was that bad.




Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code




It's been 8 years since that really bad ice storm. Wow.
Quoting 572. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just thought I would drop this by while I try to deal with tonight's mid-season finale of The Walking Dead.

Australia has its warmest November on record


Did you watch it too? I think my jaw dropped all the way to the floor at the end. So temps must be above average down under. It's also almost meteorological summer for them.
I never understood how things could get encased in ice like that until a week ago. We had freezing rain and ice that fell and it encased everything here. Granted it was only 1/4" thick in places and it didn't do any damage.

Trying to figure out what the guy with the shovel in your picture is trying to do?

Luckily in the modern world, we have remote start... Something that I have used to make it so I can open up the door without ripping the door seals to shreds.

I don't want 40 days and nights of snow either. Actually what we got right now is perfect.

I also haven't figured out why circulating hot water along only some of the baseboards in the house makes the house so darn warm. There is no fan blowing air through the fins. or through conduit. But it works and quite well. (Just in case, I have a manual gas fireplace that will roast you out of the house)


Well... NOW hurricane season's over.
It is now officially over. Goodnight everybody.
Quoting 580. TimTheWxMan:

It is now officially over. Goodnight everybody.


I guess this means we won't see you until June of 2015?

I tend to stick around for the off season stuff...
Quoting 524. jpsb:



Meanwhile back on planet Earth




I think what he's trying to say is that there is still snow and ice, indirectly implying that global warming means tropical trees growing in the arctic circle during winter.

That's ridiculous of course, but apparently jpsb here isn't really keen on the whole physics and science thing.
Wanderers is a vision of humanity's expansion into the Solar System, based on scientific ideas and concepts of what our future in space might look like, if it ever happens. The locations depicted in the film are digital recreations of actual places in the Solar System, built from real photos and map data where available.







2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June/November - GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

RapidScat is on line.
www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASAs_New_Wind_Watcher _Ready_for_Weather_Forecasters_999.html
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (1422)
15:00 PM JST December 1 2014
==================================
Near Chuuk (Truks)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Hagupit (1000 hPa) located at 4.9N 152.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
12 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 6.1N 146.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 8.0N 141.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
72 HRS: 9.5N 135.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
NWS Tiyan Guam
Tropical Storm Hagupit 22W
======================

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is now in effect for Satawal in Yap State

A TYPHOON WATCH is in effect for Fais and Ulithi in Yap State

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH remains in effect for Puluwat in Chuuk State

A TYPHOON WATCH remains in effect for Faraulep and Woleai in Yap State
Wait until you experience subfloor radiant heat. It is wonderful. If I ever built a house up north again, I would have it installed.


Quoting 578. Dakster:

I never understood how things could get encased in ice like that until a week ago. We had freezing rain and ice that fell and it encased everything here. Granted it was only 1/4" thick in places and it didn't do any damage.

Trying to figure out what the guy with the shovel in your picture is trying to do?

Luckily in the modern world, we have remote start... Something that I have used to make it so I can open up the door without ripping the door seals to shreds.

I don't want 40 days and nights of snow either. Actually what we got right now is perfect.

I also haven't figured out why circulating hot water along only some of the baseboards in the house makes the house so darn warm. There is no fan blowing air through the fins. or through conduit. But it works and quite well. (Just in case, I have a manual gas fireplace that will roast you out of the house)
Good Monday morning, folks!

IN IMAGES: Fatal floods hit south of France
The Local (France), published: 01 Dec 2014 09:28 GMT 01:00
As southern France recovers from the worst flooding it's seen in years, The Local takes a look at some of the most shocking images of the damage done by the forces of nature. ...

Photos and Video: Storm Still Raging in North Iceland
By Eyglo Svala Arnarsdottir, Iceland-Review, December 01, 2014 10:02Updated: December 01, 2014 10:10

UN climate talks begin as global temperatures break records
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News 1 December 2014 Last updated at 03:12 GMT
UN climate negotiators are meeting in Peru to try to advance talks on a new global agreement.
One hundred and ninety-five nations have committed to finalising a new climate pact in Paris by 2015's end.
The process has been boosted by recent developments, including a joint announcement on cutting carbon by the US and China.
The two weeks of discussions start amid record-breaking global temperatures for the year to date. ...


----------------------------

Overnight Xandra's severe thunderstorms moved from Italy/Tuscany and the Adriatic Sea to the Balkans:



Click to enlarge.


Icy fog: In parts of Germany, Austria and Czech Republic huge hoarfrost (rime) endangers trees and traffic.
Quoting 582. Xyrus2000:



I think what he's trying to say is that there is still snow and ice, indirectly implying that global warming means tropical trees growing in the arctic circle during winter.

That's ridiculous of course, but apparently jpsb here isn't really keen on the whole physics and science thing.


He seems unaware that it gets cold in the Arctic this time of year. PS the ice in that image is 600,000 kmsq below the 30 year average.



It's called shooting one's self in the foot.
Quoting 564. Dakster:

Washi - Do you have snow right now?
No.There is potential for snow/sleet/ice here tomorrow.We'll see.Mid month something could happen.
Nearby Weather Stations
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
49.7 °F
DopplerDon.com
51.0 °F
Rock Hill
51.4 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
49.5 °F
Foxon
50.5 °F
East Haven Town Beach
49.3 °F
Yale, Kline Geology Lab
51.6 °F
Heat records were broken in Sicily yesterday. Here is my free translation of parts of today's article Storica ondata di CALORE sulla Sicilia, battuti diversi RECORD per il mese di Novembre by Daniele Ingemi on Meteo Portale Italia (If our WU-member Stefaneik from Florence is around he may have a look if I got it right):

"With outstanding 30.8C (87.44F) in Palermo the previous monthly record for November was broken, to boot on the last day of this month. As well the station Boccadifalco with 30.3C yesterday has exceeded the previous monthly record of 30.0C on 2 November 1968. But even more exceptional are the 33 C reached in Carini (province of Palermo), the highest ever recorded values in Sicily in November.

These are temperatures usually found during the peak of summer, and therefore really exceptional for the last ten days of November and the beginning of December. You also have to remember that even in the month of July these locations never showed values close to 31 C and 33 C, a detail which reveals the magnitude of yesterday's heat event in Sicily. But what is most striking: if those temperatures were also recorded today, December 1, probably even the European heat record for December of 30.6C would have been broken.

The hot air was accompanied by a lot of sand, advected from the deserts of Eastern Algeria..."



Highest temperatures in Europe yesterday, Sunday, Nov 30. Source.

BTW, the meteorological term for yesterday's sandstorm in central Mediterranean is "Sirocco":
English wiki: Sirocco is a Mediterranean wind that comes from the Sahara and reaches hurricane speeds in North Africa and Southern Europe.


Source German Wiki. Xandra's rotating center was way more to the northwest yesterday, over the Balearic Islands.

This video from yesterday at Ostia (near Rome) nicely shows the reddish skies during a Sirocco:

Some of the models this morning are again showing a interesting set up maybe for eastern FL as a Deep Easterly flow takes hold. Me personally I think the GGEM is way over done here but it interesting nonetheless as the GFS ensembles are showing something similar to this later this week as a deep plume of moisture slides in from the east. At the very least we could see another 30% to 40% intruduced into the forecast for late this week.



the rains shall fall upon the dry lands
Quoting 597. Patrap:

Are you a God, or a Canadian?

: P
just a Canadian keeper of the gate
CPC now has 3.4 at 1.0C on this weeks update. This might seal the deal for El-Nino to be officially declared this week.

El Nino is now the Noise within the Warming signal.

I wunder why?

Also there appears to be an emergence of another Oceanic Kelvin Wave over the Indian Ocean moving east and its this wave that the CFSv2 is picking up on for next Spring & Summer.



Look closely at 140E you can clearly see another Oceanic Kelvin Wave organizing and I think the CFSv2 has merit here as it did forecast the demise of the record Kelvin Wave this past Spring so well see.

According to the TAO I can see why the 1.0C was issued for nino 3.4 on this weeks update.

Australia had hottest spring and second hottest November on record
Bureau of Meteorology says spring 2014’s average temperature of 24C exceeded the mean by 1.5C, ‘the largest seasonal departure we’ve ever had"


Australia has had its hottest spring and second hottest November on record.

Bureau of Meteorology climate monitoring manager Karl Braganza says 2014 has had the latest in a long line of hot springs in the past decade. According to the BOM, 2013 was the country’s hottest year.

“Really, it was only 2010 that had a cool spring in the past 10 years or so. Nine out of the warmest springs on record have occurred since 2002,” Braganza said.

Australia’s average seasonal temperature is derived by averaging the temperature data from weather stations, where records go back to 1910. The figure is then compared with the long-term average temperature, which measures the period from 1961 to 1990.

Spring 2014’s average temperature of 24C exceeded the mean by 1.5C, Braganza said.

“That departure, averaged over a whole three-month period, is actually really large. That means it was, on average, over 1.5C warmer, and that’s the largest seasonal departure that we’ve ever recorded,” he said.

Heatwaves in NSW and Queensland were major factors in the result, Braganza said. The bureau is still finalising its figures, but he said mean temperatures in November were the second hottest on record.

“This is similar to what we’ve seen in the past couple of years, when these high summer temperatures started to get going late in spring or early in December, which is about a month earlier than typical,” Braganza said.

Low rainfall was linked to warmer-than-average temperatures in Australia and around the world, he said.

“Rainfall on the soil acts like an evaporative cooler over the continent,” Braganza said.

“Drought has been quite persistent in Queensland, stretching over the border to South Australia and NSW, and now in western Victoria and south-eastern SA and western Victoria, you’ve got re-emerging drought conditions as well.

“So, when you look at that, you’re not so surprised that you’ll get record temperatures for spring as well.”

Spring 2014 mean temperatures by state
Advertisement

Australia: +1.67C against average

Queensland: +1.36C

NSW: +2.21C

Victoria: +1.53C

Tasmania: +0.66C

South Australia: +2.20C

Western Australia: +1.82C

Northern Territory: +1.13C

Spring 2014 rainfall by state
Australia: -34% against average

Queensland -52%

NSW: -52%

Victoria -38%

Tasmania -27%

South Australia -55%

Western Australia: +35%

Northern Territory: -51%

Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Quoting 604. Patrap:

Australia had hottest spring and second hottest November on record
Bureau of Meteorology says spring 2014’s average temperature of 24C exceeded the mean by 1.5C, ‘the largest seasonal departure we’ve ever had"


Australia has had its hottest spring and second hottest November on record.

Bureau of Meteorology climate monitoring manager Karl Braganza says 2014 has had the latest in a long line of hot springs in the past decade. According to the BOM, 2013 was the country’s hottest year.

“Really, it was only 2010 that had a cool spring in the past 10 years or so. Nine out of the warmest springs on record have occurred since 2002,” Braganza said.

Australia’s average seasonal temperature is derived by averaging the temperature data from weather stations, where records go back to 1910. The figure is then compared with the long-term average temperature, which measures the period from 1961 to 1990.

Spring 2014’s average temperature of 24C exceeded the mean by 1.5C, Braganza said.

“That departure, averaged over a whole three-month period, is actually really large. That means it was, on average, over 1.5C warmer, and that’s the largest seasonal departure that we’ve ever recorded,” he said.

Heatwaves in NSW and Queensland were major factors in the result, Braganza said. The bureau is still finalising its figures, but he said mean temperatures in November were the second hottest on record.

“This is similar to what we’ve seen in the past couple of years, when these high summer temperatures started to get going late in spring or early in December, which is about a month earlier than typical,” Braganza said.

Low rainfall was linked to warmer-than-average temperatures in Australia and around the world, he said.

“Rainfall on the soil acts like an evaporative cooler over the continent,” Braganza said.

“Drought has been quite persistent in Queensland, stretching over the border to South Australia and NSW, and now in western Victoria and south-eastern SA and western Victoria, you’ve got re-emerging drought conditions as well.

“So, when you look at that, you’re not so surprised that you’ll get record temperatures for spring as well.”

Spring 2014 mean temperatures by state
Advertisement

Australia: +1.67C against average

Queensland: +1.36C

NSW: +2.21C

Victoria: +1.53C

Tasmania: +0.66C

South Australia: +2.20C

Western Australia: +1.82C

Northern Territory: +1.13C

Spring 2014 rainfall by state
Australia: -34% against average

Queensland -52%

NSW: -52%

Victoria -38%

Tasmania -27%

South Australia -55%

Western Australia: +35%

Northern Territory: -51%

Source: Bureau of Meteorology


Common to see hotter &* drier than average weather in Australia during El-Nino years.
Er, you may wanna check the departures there, ..........

: )

"That departure, averaged over a whole three-month period, is actually really large. That means it was, on average, over 1.5C warmer, and that's the largest seasonal departure that we've ever recorded, he said."




Florida regulators approve plan to gut energy efficiency goals, end solar power rebates
Ivan PennIvan Penn, Times Staff Writer


TALLAHASSEE — State regulators on Tuesday approved proposals to gut Florida's energy-efficiency goals by more than 90 percent and to terminate solar rebate programs by the end of 2015, giving the investor-owned utilities virtually everything they wanted.

After almost two hours of debate, members of the state Public Service Commission voted 3-2 in support of staff recommendations that backed the proposals of Duke Energy Florida, Tampa Electric and Florida Power & Light.

The two dissenters, Commissioners Lisa Edgar and Julie Brown, said they could not agree with a plan that so drastically altered state energy policy.

"It's not the direction I want to go in," Edgar said before the vote. "I am uncomfortable going to the reduced goals. It is a policy and it is a statement, as a state, of what our energy policies are."

Brown said although energy efficiency and solar programs have costs, the state needs to balance all its needs.

"We have inherent conflicts," Brown said. "We're supposed to encourage conservation but it must be cost-effective. I think we should be investing in all of it."

The commissioners did agree to hold workshops on ways to improve solar energy in the Sunshine State after deciding to end current rebate programs administered by the utilities.

But that won't be enough to stave off possible legal challenges to the decision.

Environmental groups question whether the PSC might have violated state law with a policy that leaves no energy-efficiency requirements for the utilities.

"It's completely inconsistent with what the other states are doing," said Stephen Smith, executive director of the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, which opposed the utility proposals during hearings this summer.

"We believe there may have been laws broken today by not setting goals," Smith said. "We as an organization are going to try to find every outlet possible to continue to fight."

Meanwhile, Florida's utilities will go into the holidays with their biggest wishes this year, including billions of dollars in new power plants that will come online in the next decade.

The PSC, for instance, approved Duke Energy for a $1.5 billion natural gas plant that the utility wanted to replace the shuttered Crystal River nuclear plant that broke during a botched upgrade and maintenance project as well as two coal units the company plans to retire.

What did consumers get this year?

The utilities will reduce rates come Jan. 1 by pennies a month for the average customers — 16 cents for Duke ratepayers; $1.14 for Tampa Electric; and $1.94 for FPL.

Most of the savings is the result of lower fuel prices that are out of the utilities' control. And the utilities do not profit from fuel costs.

The utilities pressed for the cuts to energy efficiency and the end of the solar rebate programs because they said neither is cost-effective. The utilities insist that it is now cheaper for them to produce a kilowatt of electricity than to save it.

Other states continue to find ways to save energy at less cost than generating it because they have policies aimed at doing just that.

Vermont, for instance, pays manufacturers to offer high-efficiency products at lower prices. A compact fluorescent light bulb that costs $1.25 in Florida costs 99 cents in Vermont. Policies like that, big and small, mean Vermont now meets 2.12 percent of its annual energy needs by saving electricity rather than producing it.

In Florida, the number is 0.25 percent — and now dropping.

The moves by Florida utilities come as the ground beneath them continues to shift, threatening their business model. Increasingly, they are in need of ways to thwart the growing impact of rooftop solar and battery storage technology that could give more consumers energy independence.

And the utilities know it all too well. What the rest of the world admiringly calls renewable energy and conservation, the utilities call "disruptive'' technologies.

"The financial risks created by disruptive challenges include declining utility revenues, increasing costs, and lower profitability, particularly over the long-term," according to a report written for the Edison Electric Institute, which represents all U.S. investor-owned utilities.

Environmental groups argue that the need for new power plants could be offset with energy efficiency at much lower costs to ratepayers. And stronger state support for solar programs would give consumers more choice and energy freedom.

But Tuesday, commissioners debated the potential impacts on ratepayers, including those most disadvantaged.

PSC chairman Art Graham said he has gotten an earful about the proposal to gut the energy-efficiency goals. But those concerns did not prevent him from siding with commission staff and the utilities to end the solar rebates and the energy-efficiency goals.

"My office has had many calls about this item," Graham said before the vote. "One of the things that is a concern to me is how some of the low-income people would participate."

Instead, the commissioners haggled over six options, including keeping the current goals in place. But they could not reach a unanimous decision and the majority back the utilities.

"It's a very sad day for the state of Florida," Smith said.

Contact Ivan Penn at ipenn@tampabay.com or (727) 892-2332. Follow @Consumers_Edge.

Florida regulators approve plan to gut energy efficiency goals, end solar power rebates 11/25/14 [Last modified: Tuesday, November 25, 2014 9:56pm]

© 2014 Tampa Bay Times
Optimism Faces Grave Realities at Climate Talks

New York Times
By CORAL DAVENPORT NOV. 30, 2014


WASHINGTON — After more than two decades of trying but failing to forge a global pact to halt climate change, United Nations negotiators gathering in South America this week are expressing a new optimism that they may finally achieve the elusive deal.

Even with a deal to stop the current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, scientists warn, the world will become increasingly unpleasant. Without a deal, they say, the world could eventually become uninhabitable for humans.

For the next two weeks, thousands of diplomats from around the globe will gather in Lima, Peru, for a United Nations summit meeting to draft an agreement intended to stop the global rise of planet-warming greenhouse gases.

Continue reading the main story
RELATED COVERAGE

President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China, with their delegations, met inside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Wednesday.U.S. and China Reach Climate Accord After Months of TalksNOV. 11, 2014
Machines digging for brown coal in front of a power plant near Grevenbroich, Germany, in April.U.N. Panel Issues Its Starkest Warning Yet on Global WarmingNOV. 2, 2014
Global Warming Concerns GrowSEPT. 22, 2014
An environmental activist dressed as a lobbyist, his hands covered in coal, protested in Brussels in October. Europe has agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030.Special Report: Business of Green: Testing the Limits of European Ambitions on EmissionsNOV. 30, 2014
The meeting comes just weeks after a landmark announcement by President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China committing the world’s two largest carbon polluters to cuts in their emissions. United Nations negotiators say they believe that advancement could end a longstanding impasse in the climate talks, spurring other countries to sign similar commitments.


But while scientists and climate-policy experts welcome the new momentum ahead of the Lima talks, they warn that it now may be impossible to prevent the temperature of the planet’s atmosphere from rising by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. According to a large body of scientific research, that is the tipping point at which the world will be locked into a near-term future of drought, food and water shortages, melting ice sheets, shrinking glaciers, rising sea levels and widespread flooding — events that could harm the world’s population and economy.

Recent reports show that there may be no way to prevent the planet’s temperature from rising, given the current level of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere and the projected rate of emissions expected to continue before any new deal is carried out.

That fact is driving the urgency of the Lima talks, which are expected to produce a draft document, to be made final over the next year and signed by world leaders in Paris in December 2015.

While a breach of the 3.6 degree threshold appears inevitable, scientists say that United Nations negotiators should not give up on their efforts to cut emissions. At stake now, they say, is the difference between a newly unpleasant world and an uninhabitable one.


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Quoting 559. Webberweather53:



To be honest, I can somewhat buy into the idea that lowering arctic sea ice is playing a significant role in spiking Fall/Winter Eurasian snow cover given the 1990 IPCC graph of arctic sea ice (which should be taken w/ a grain of salt given it's outside the satellite era & the IPCC has since changed this graphic as early as 2001 in Working Group I to show abnormally high sea ice extent in the mid 1970s, which would effectively cast more doubt on the arctic amplification hypothesis) showing it near anomalously low levels in the mid 1970s,


which do correspond with some of the big Eurasian snow years in this era, including the record-breaker of 1976


You may want to not consider the No Data years as zero and re graph. The equation is closer to Y = x + 10.5.
611. yoboi
Quoting 600. Patrap:

El Nino is now the Noise within the Warming signal.

I wunder why?





I wonder if it will last for 16 yrs like 1 scientist predicted...o-)

Also there appears to be an emergence of another Oceanic Kelvin Wave over the Indian Ocean moving east and its this wave that the CFSv2 is picking up on for next Spring & Summer.



i feel like a broken record...but let me say this once again..........the cfsv2 is the only model showing such a high anomaly this coming spring...no other model shows this.....and why might you ask?....first....as noaa has explained....the cfsv2 is not very good at 6 months out...it's error rate is quite high....and michael ventrice has explained the reason for the error is a bias for the cfsv2 to the present kelvin wave
JTWC 15:00 UTC warning on TS HAGUPIT.

on another el nino note........the weekly cpc update is out....the 3.4 region average 1.0c above average.....and the cpc issues their monthly report on the 4th...it will be interesting to see if they say we've met the conditions for el nino or if they will hold off due to not all the signals are here yet and there's still uncertainty as to whether it will meet all the conditions for the 5....3 month period
one of the areas that was not following the el nino signal was the SOI.....it averaged right at -8.0 for november....right at the el nino threshold...earlier last month it was trending upwards
Quoting 581. Dakster:



I guess this means we won't see you until June of 2015?

I tend to stick around for the off season stuff...


Haha no I'll still be here.
This is about as good as it gets for the first week in December.
7 day forecast for Fort Myers, Fl.
This is about as good as it gets for the first week in December.


looks nice and dry.........we'll be in the mid 60's until the end of the week when it will rise over 70 again
Quoting 563. Webberweather53:



This general pattern this November has the fingerprints of a high fall northern hemisphere snowpack...

The massive scandinavian ridge which is typically a prevalent feature in a pattern like this is getting a boost from the persistence of the classic Atlantic positive Tripole SST distribution which has continued to encourage substantial undercutting over the North Atlantic (it's a chicken-egg argument in the end, inadvertently this received a lot of help from the anticyclonic wave breaking event over the North Pacific thanks in part to Nuri's incredible intensification as it underwent extratropical transition & merged with a cold-core Siberian vort max that was temporarily delaying the expansion of the Siberian High) is a likely reason why this Scandinavian block is so intrusive & retrograded westward towards Greenland, while coinciding with the Alaskan Omega Ridge to attempt at classic wave #2 split of the polar vortex, (it was somewhat successful in the troposphere, w/ however, it's still a bit too early for a full-blown split or obliteration, that is more likely as we get near & into January. Also knowing the kind of SST signal I'm seeing from the North Atlantic, the fact that we may be entering into a renewed negative multidecadal AO/NAO base state, etc. blocking will more than likely be prevalent over this region & I would look out for intraseasonal bursts w/ the proper dynamical support from the MJO (eastward progression thru phase 6-8), a sudden stratospheric warming event, etc.

I honestly don't have many issues with the theories being presented by Hansen & Francis as I can understand where they're coming from & grasp the science that is being promulgated, but I do think the poster of that article was overzealous in the way he presented his information & he could have been a bit more monotone as outsiders who aren't nearly as open to the idea of AGW may view that as more alarmist rhetoric even though much of what was stated had a factual foundation.
I know its a long way out, but notice anything.?

126 hours..


384 hours..
Today in weather history:
In 1876 sneaux fell for 5 minutes in the area of fort myers, fl
Today in weather history:
In 1876 sneaux fell for 5 minutes in the area of fort myers, fl



and bloggers were typing in all caps....bolding their words even....."THEY'RE GETTING HAMMERED"
Quoting 621. ricderr:

Today in weather history:
In 1876 sneaux fell for 5 minutes in the area of fort myers, fl



and bloggers were typing in all caps....bolding their words even....."THEY'RE GETTING HAMMERED"


I don't think they had caps and bold function on their computers back then, ric.

Maybe they just used a bunch of exclamation marks.
I don't think they had caps and bold function on their computers back then, ric.

Maybe they just used a bunch of exclamation marks.



LOL....you're probably right...happy belated thanksgiving to you
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Today in weather history:
In 1876 sneaux fell for 5 minutes in the area of fort myers, fl


Some old timers will tell you they've seen a few flakes come down in the Fort Myers area.

But as far as I know, there has never been any snowfall in Fort Myers (Officially - Page Field is the official reporting station).

It's really hard to get snow down into southern Florida.
Unlike areas of South Texas (same latitude)that see snow every once in a while. But S. Texas doesn't have the effect of having relatively warm water all around it (East, West, and South).
Quoting 624. Sfloridacat5:



Some old timers will tell you they've seen a few flakes come down in the Fort Myers area.

But as far as I know, there has never been any snowfall in Fort Myers (Officially - Page Field is the official reporting station).

It's really hard to get snow down into southern Florida.
Unlike areas of South Texas (same latitude)that see snow every once in a while. But S. Texas doesn't have the effect of having relatively warm water all around it (East, West, and South).
I was in S.W Florida for the 77 and 89 snow events..The winter of 1997 was interesting. I was staying at Burnt Store Marina and we had graupel...Heard something hittin the windows..:)
Quoting 622. aquak9:



I don't think they had caps and bold function on their computers back then, ric.

Maybe they just used a bunch of exclamation marks.


Back then CAPS were all we had.
Quoting 624. Sfloridacat5:



Some old timers will tell you they've seen a few flakes come down in the Fort Myers area.

But as far as I know, there has never been any snowfall in Fort Myers (Officially - Page Field is the official reporting station).

It's really hard to get snow down into southern Florida.
Unlike areas of South Texas (same latitude)that see snow every once in a while. But S. Texas doesn't have the effect of having relatively warm water all around it (East, West, and South).


The other term which is unique to Texas (and Brazil) is presence of very high mountains to the west. This causes cold air damming on a large scale so when arctic high pressure builds to the north (south) cold air pours across the isobars straight south (north). Snow has been observed on the Mexican coast as far south as Tampico.

Until 1977 Fort Myers was the southern extent of FL snow observations. But on January 19, 1977, snow flurries were observed in the Miami metro area including Homestead (but not MIA, the official observing site)
Quoting 617. Sfloridacat5:

This is about as good as it gets for the first week in December.
7 day forecast for Fort Myers, Fl.



Showers over on this side of the state. Infact we have some rain just south of Orlando right now and should build this way later today though amounts will be light maybe 0.10" in the bucket today. Heavier rains tomorrow with maybe some thunderstorms as a cold pocket aloft rolls in and infact its this cold pocket that enhances rain in PR later this week. So you guys across the NE Caribbean are in for some wet weather down the road.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just a Canadian keeper of the gate
There are only a few people here who seem consider themselves as gods and, thankfully, you're not one of them. Dr. Masters will post a new blog right about now and no one will ever see this.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The other term which is unique to Texas (and Brazil) is presence of very high mountains to the west. This causes cold air damming on a large scale so when arctic high pressure builds to the north (south) cold air pours across the isobars straight south (north). Snow has been observed on the Mexican coast as far south as Tampico.

Until 1977 Fort Myers was the southern extent of FL snow observations. But on January 19, 1977, snow flurries were observed in the Miami metro area including Homestead (but not MIA, the official observing site)


Did Miami report the snowfall as a trace of precipitation?
Just wondering if it was "measureable." That seems to make events "official."

I've seen pictures from the Miami snowfall.

I lived in Corpus Christi for about 10 years. One day on my way home from work it started snowing like crazy (big huge flakes). The ground started turning white and just about then the snow stopped. About 3 minutes later all evidence of the snowfall had melted.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Did Miami report the snowfall as a trace of precipitation?
Just wondering if it was "measureable." That seems to make events "official."

I've seen pictures from the Miami snowfall.

I lived in Corpus Christi for about 10 years. One day on my way home from work it started snowing like crazy (big huge flakes). The ground started turning white and just about then the snow stopped. About 3 minutes later all evidence of the snowfall had melted.
It has never officially snowed in Ft. Myers. There has to be a one-half inch accumulation for it to count, and that has never happened. There were snow flurries observed by meteorologists in 1977 but the snow never accumulated. There have been many anecdotal accounts of flurries at other times, some of which probably happened, but never enough to be officially counted as snow.
Quoting 633. sar2401:

It has never officially snowed in Ft. Myers. There has to be a one-half inch accumulation for it to count, and that has never happened. There were snow flurries observed by meteorologists in 1977 but the snow never accumulated. There have been many anecdotal accounts of flurries at other times, some of which probably happened, but never enough to be officially counted as snow.
This is true. Both 77 and 89 were flurries..Tampa did get a dusting in 77.
More beneficial rains for California..

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting sar2401:
It has never officially snowed in Ft. Myers. There has to be a one-half inch accumulation for it to count, and that has never happened. There were snow flurries observed by meteorologists in 1977 but the snow never accumulated. There have been many anecdotal accounts of flurries at other times, some of which probably happened, but never enough to be officially counted as snow.


The first year we lived in San Antonio, Texas it snowed 13". We had just moved there from the Oklahoma City area.
We lived on the N.W. side of town and the streets were really steep in the neighborhood. Even our driveway was really steep. Until the snow melted, we couldn't leave the house.




I wonder what they will decide to do?.........................The Supreme Court is weighing the free-speech rights of people who use violent or threatening language on Facebook and other social media
For a middle school science project, on brilliant girl programed a raspberry pi module and wired a breadboard to report her weather station data to wunderground and do a comparison with other local rainfall stations. It was a great project and she even moved her station when she identified interference. ...middle school.