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Pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter Snarls Holiday Travel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:54 PM GMT on November 26, 2014

Nearly nineteen million people in the Eastern U.S. are under a Winter Storm Warning as a poorly-timed Nor'easter socks it to travelers hitting the roads and skies in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday. The storm was bringing heavy rain to the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Wednesday morning, and heavy snows inland over the higher terrain. As of 9:30 am EST, widespread snowfall amounts of 1 - 3" had been reported over Western Virginia and West Virginia, with a maximum of 8" reported at Frenchburg, WV and 6" at Mount Rogers, VA. The rains falling closer to the coast will change to snow on Wednesday afternoon at the same time that millions of people hit the roads, bringing a major pre-holiday travel mess. Little or no accumulation is likely in Washington D.C., but Philadelphia is under a Winter Weather Advisory for 1 - 3" of snow. Snowfall amounts of 1 - 3" are also expected in New York City, and Boston is likely to get 1 - 2" of slushy snow and sleet. The heaviest snows from the storm will come Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, and may take some time to accumulate on the roads due to stored heat from the warm temperatures of the past few days. Heavier snows will fall inland from the coast, where widespread snow amounts of 6 - 12 inches are likely along a swath from Northeast Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey into Maine, including Hartford, Connecticut and central Massachusetts cities like Worcester. The most serious impacts may be in Portland, Maine, which is under a Winter Storm Warning for 8 - 12" of snow.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 9:45 am EST November 26, 2014 of the pre-Thanksgiving Nor'easter affecting the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Air travel will be heavily impacted
Low visibility and low cloud ceilings due to heavy rain in the major cities along the East Coast on Wednesday morning were causing extensive flight delays across much of the U.S. These delays will increase on Wednesday afternoon as the snow moves in. The FlightAware.com MiseryMap showed 490 delayed flights and 12 cancelled flights between 8 am and noon EST on Wednesday, with 42% of the delays occurring in DC, Philadelphia, Newark, NYC, and Boston.

As of 10 am EST, the FAA was reporting the following average flight delays for flights whose destinations were these airports:

NYC La Guardia: 3 hours, 9 minutes
Newark, NJ: 3 hours, 18 minutes
Philadelphia, PA: 1 hour, 43 minutes
Minneapolis, MN: 1 hour, 23 minutes


Figure 2. Snowfall forecast for the New York City area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS New York City.


Figure 3. Snowfall forecast for the Boston area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS Boston.


Figure 3. Snowfall forecast for the Philadelphia area made on Tuesday morning, November 26, 2014. Image credit: NWS Philadelphia.

Have safe travels and a great Thanksgiving holiday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Snow in Shavertown, PA
Snow in Shavertown, PA
Mt Landsend Sunset-Web4-4044.jpg
Mt Landsend Sunset-Web4-4044.jpg
Sun setting on West Elk Range
Deer Trail
Deer Trail

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Sneaux is of the Devil.

May you and your's have a WUnderful and safe Thanksgiving too, Dr. Masters

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. I would hate to be flying or driving up the Eastcoast today.
Thanks Doc lots of high PWAT air moved in from the NW Caribbean on Monday then Florida on Tuesday and now its heading for New England. it was almost like a perfect set up to get extreme rains in FL then fuel a major Nor Easter the next day.

PWAT's near 2" at Cape Cod by 0Z today. Amazing amount of moisture got sucked into this system.



Quoting 2. Sfloridacat5:

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. I would hate to be flying or driving up the Eastcoast today.


Try taking the Long Island Expressway into and out of the city during rush hour... I remember last winter when snow storms easily increased my travel time by a factor of 5. In a drive that takes 25 minutes without traffic, 45 min to an hour with traffic, takes me 4 hours on the worst storm days. Some evenings I arrive home later than my usual bedtime. Today, fortunately, traffic was light coming in, and I'm hoping that frozen precipitation takes a long time to accumulate on the already wet and above freezing roads. Fingers crossed that I get home in under 90 minutes this evening. It's what I expect.
Heavy snow in parts of the DC area now. Great example of dynamical cooling -- temps have fallen about 5 degrees as the heavy snow moved in. Still well above freezing, though, and I still don't think it will stick.
Quoting 5. bwi:

Heavy snow in parts of the DC area now. Great example of dynamical cooling -- temps have fallen about 5 degrees as the heavy snow moved in. Still well above freezing, though, and I still don't think it will stick.
I don't see it sticking either.
Thanks Dr. Masters, Happy Thanksgiving to you!
Snow still heavily falling, major sticking unlikely though.
Thank you, doc. Hope you and your family enjoy a happy and undisturbed holiday.


The infamous Snow Bowl game against OSU from 1950.
Very few Wolverine fans were on hand to witness the triumph in Columbus because they couldn't get there. And the ones who did had a very difficult time getting home that Thanksgiving weekend. The day before the game, the worst blizzard since 1913 paralyzed the Midwest and Northeast and dipped as far south as Tennessee.
At least 9 inches of snow alone had fallen on Columbus Saturday morning. By game time, the temperature was nero zero and winds swirled around Ohio Stadium at nearly 30 miles an hour. Amazingly, 50,503 fans made it through the turnstiles. OSU officials did not even bother to take tickets so any spectator crazy enough to brave the weather elements could walk right in. ....
Source for more.
-------------------------------------

Live streaming WAMO-cam in D.C.
Good day

A beautiful 82 with a few clouds floating around this afternoon!

For a view of an amazing parallel parking job, take a look at this site:

Link

There are two ships docked and one in the harbor. That incoming ship, if you can't see it at the moment, will be there VERY soon and it will have to go between the last ship that is docked and the one anchored out, and park between the two docked ships.

Hope all is well with everyone!
thanx for the update doc.......of course anytime i get into talking about a subject we get a new blog...LOL
Here at 3,000 ft elevation in the corner of NC with VA and TN, just to the south of Mt. Rogers, VA, the snow is tapering off, according to NOAA radar. About 1 to 1 1/2 inch has fallen since around 6 AM. The temperature has been at or above freezing, my thermometer now showing 37F. The warmth of the past 2 days will result in a rapid melt on the roads in locations which experienced sunlight. Ice on shady spots will be tricky for drivers, however.

I just read Dr. Masters' report in the December Scientific American. Great coverage of the ideas of Jeniffer Francis and her "Wavy Jet Stream" hypothesis.
Quoting bwi:
Heavy snow in parts of the DC area now. Great example of dynamical cooling -- temps have fallen about 5 degrees as the heavy snow moved in. Still well above freezing, though, and I still don't think it will stick.


You'll probably end up seeing some accumulation on the grassy surfaces.

It's snowing like crazy out near Dulles Airport west of town.

A orbital first, and a very cool one I may add.




Open for Business: 3-D Printer Creates First Object in Space on International Space Station


The International Space Station’s 3-D printer has manufactured the first 3-D printed object in space, paving the way to future long-term space expeditions.

"This first print is the initial step toward providing an on-demand machine shop capability away from Earth," said Niki Werkheiser, project manager for the International Space Station 3-D Printer at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. "The space station is the only laboratory where we can fully test this technology in space.”

NASA astronaut Barry "Butch" Wilmore, Expedition 42 commander aboard the International Space Station, installed the printer on Nov. 17 and conducted the first calibration test print. Based on the test print results, the ground control team sent commands to realign the printer and printed a second calibration test on Nov. 20. These tests verified that the printer was ready for manufacturing operations. On Nov. 24, ground controllers sent the printer the command to make the first printed part: a faceplate of the extruder’s casing. This demonstrated that the printer can make replacement parts for itself. The 3-D printer uses a process formally known as additive manufacturing to heat a relatively low-temperature plastic filament and extrude it one layer at a time to build the part defined in the design file sent to the machine.

On the morning of Nov. 25, Wilmore removed the part from the printer and inspected it. Part adhesion on the tray was stronger than anticipated, which could mean layer bonding is different in microgravity, a question the team will investigate as future parts are printed. Wilmore installed a new print tray, and the ground team sent a command to fine-tune the printer alignment and printed a third calibration coupon. When Wilmore removes the calibration coupon, the ground team will be able to command the printer to make a second object. The ground team makes precise adjustments before every print, and the results from this first print are contributing to a better understanding about the parameters to use when 3-D printing on the space station.

“This is the first time we’ve ever used a 3-D printer in space, and we are learning, even from these initial operations,” Werkheiser said. “As we print more parts we’ll be able to learn whether some of the effects we are seeing are caused by microgravity or just part of the normal fine-tuning process for printing. When we get the parts back on Earth, we’ll be able to do a more detailed analysis to find out how they compare to parts printed on Earth.”

The 3-D Printing in Zero-G Technology Demonstration on the space station aims to show additive manufacturing can make a variety of 3-D printed parts and tools in space. The first object 3-D printed in space, the printhead faceplate, is engraved with names of the organizations that collaborated on this space station technology demonstration: NASA and Made In Space, Inc., the space manufacturing company that worked with NASA to design, build and test the 3-D printer. Made In Space is located on the campus of NASA’s Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, California.

“We chose this part to print first because, after all, if we are going to have 3-D printers make spare and replacement parts for critical items in space, we have to be able to make spare parts for the printers,” Werkheiser said. “If a printer is critical for explorers, it must be capable of replicating its own parts, so that it can keep working during longer journeys to places like Mars or an asteroid. Ultimately, one day, a printer may even be able to print another printer.”

Made In Space engineers commanded the printer to make the first object while working with controllers at NASA’s Payload Operations Integration Center in Huntsville. As the first objects are printed, NASA and Made In Space engineers are monitoring the manufacturing via downlinked images and videos. The majority of the printing process is controlled from the ground to limit crew time required for operations.

"The operation of the 3-D printer is a transformative moment in space development," said Aaron Kemmer, chief executive officer of Made In Space. "We’ve built a machine that will provide us with research data needed to develop future 3-D printers for the International Space Station and beyond, revolutionizing space manufacturing. This may change how we approach getting replacement tools and parts to the space station crew, allowing them to be less reliant on supply missions from Earth."

The first objects built in space will be returned to Earth in 2015 for detailed analysis and comparison to identical ground control samples made on the flight printer after final flight testing earlier this year at, NASA’s Marshall Center prior to launch. The goal of this analysis is to verify that the 3-D printing process works the same in microgravity as it does on Earth.
You can use the traffic cams to see the weather conditions around the area.

Virginia Traffic cams
Link

Washington D.C. traffic cams
Link
from the last blog.....



On the El-Nino front it appears our sub surface warm is continuing to grow stronger


it can't grow stronger...there is no heat engine to increase it's heat...it's correct to say that it is expanding and the anomalies are increasing as to the pacific waters cooling during the fall season...it's the same but reverse of what we saw during the spring and summer as the surface waters were first to heat the kelvin wave anomalies decreased as they reached the warming surface waters

as for the cfsv2......it is the only model that shows a moderate to strong el nino event and noaa on their enso blog has detailed not only how close to accurate it is in short term time frames but it is highly prone to errors 6 months out......also michael ventrice talked about this and explained the high anomaly values at the end of the model run is due to an erroneous bias based on the warm kelvin wave
17. JRRP
and to not just pick on the cfsv2...when it comes to el nino and long range models...as noaa explained in a rather long article recently...they're pretty much useless..

here's an excerpt

Objectively, How Good were the Forecasts?
Here we consider two measurements (among many) that summarize how well the forecasts match with the observations. One is the correlation coefficient, which shows how well the pattern of the forecasts (i.e. up and downs of the time series) follows that of the observations. The correlation coefficient ranges from -1 to +1; +1 means that the observations follow perfectly what was forecast, while -1 means the observations behave exactly the opposite of what was forecast. A coefficient of 0 means that the forecasts and observations show no relationship with one another. Coefficients of 0.5 or more are often considered to show useful forecast information.

The other measure is the mean absolute error, which is the average difference between the forecast and observation (and which one is higher does not matter). Here are the results since 2012 for the two measures at 1, 4 and 7 month lead times, respectively, for the two model types:

Model Type

Correlation Coefficient

Mean Absolute Error



Lead 1

Lead 4

Lead 7

Lead 1

Lead 4

Lead 7

Dynamical

0.89

0.60

0.14

0.17

0.32

0.44

Statistical

0.79

0.46

0.12

0.22

0.29

0.31

As one would expect, forecasts made from farther in the past (longer lead times) are less skillful than more recent (short-lead) forecasts, and the 7- month lead forecasts were of little use over this particular period. The dynamical models showed somewhat higher (i.e., better) correlations than the statistical models. The mean absolute error is generally larger for the dynamical models, partly because they averaged too warm during the period, especially when they predicted the warmest SST levels (7). The better correlations of dynamical models were also found in the 11-year period of 2002-2012 (Barnston et al. 2012). Based on the objective performance measures, it is clear that while our ENSO forecasts can be helpful for the coming few months, we have a long way to go in improving their performance and utility beyond that. It is especially hard to predict the timing of ENSO transitions and the correct strength.

and yes pat.........honestly so far this year......and quite possibly through the little bit remaining.....there is no el nino...no matter how much some of us talk about it...LOL
Quoting 17. JRRP:




Thanks for pointing that out JRRP, for the last 2 days the GFS has been developing a disturbance in the SW Caribbean, and moving it ENE. I also noticed its moving up in timeline, and a little stronger with the feature, by the way, we still in HURRICANE SEASON. I will keep monitoring, and see if more models agree ;)
thanks for the update doc

have a great thanksgiving doc and all the US bloggers of the weather underground
14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

14z run hourly models

Quoting 21. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thanks for the update doc

have a great thanksgiving doc and all the US bloggers of the weather underground


You too Keep! Stay warm ;-]
local met states we are to get up to 5 inches in our area in the next couple of days...

keeper needs to post his world, molucca sea is acting up.

i can't believe its been 2 years since i made pumpkin pies last time i made some for my local pd.

wishing everyone a happy thanksgiving...
Thanks Doc.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks doc! Hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving!!!
Thanks dok!

Supposed to get a rain\snow mix after 2 today, no accumulations. :'(
This could be interesting..See how the rest of the run goes.

Quoting 6. washingtonian115:

I don't see it sticking either.


Falling slightly faster than it's melting in College Park. It went over fast to all snow and heavy with fat flakes. Grass is whitened and paved surfaces have a light slush coating during the heavier bursts.

Went over just before 11:AM but I had a meeting and couldn't post
Thanks Dr. Masters and a Happy Thanksgiving to you too!
I have about 2" in York, PA so far. I love this stuff. Everyone be safe!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. I would hate to be flying or driving up the Eastcoast today.
Yeah, it will be pretty sloppy...or dangerous, depending on the destination. Compared to the Thanksgiving Day storms of 1989, this will be a piece of cake.

Check out the Thanksgiving storms of 1950 as well. Long distance air travel was still in its infancy, but most airports from NYC to Chicago were shut down and high winds contributed to the misery. I was only four years old at the time, so my memory of the event is a little hazy. :-) My parents regaled me with stories of them and our family of three tiny kids trying to get from Cleveland to Youngstown for Thanksgiving. My dad had to abandon his brand new 1950 Ford and walk for either fur, six, or 10 miles (depending on who was telling the story) to get help, since the car was buried in snow drifts that were up to four feet deep. We almost froze to death (according to my mom, anyway) until a National Guard half track pulled the car out of the drifts and we were able to make it to a local fire station, where we spent the next three days. Too bad the only thing I remember is climbing around on the fire trucks.


YAAAAY!!!
THUNDER! Thunder Snow!!!! First time I have heard that since 2003!!!! :D :D
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I'M LOVING THIS ALREADY!!!!!!!!!
I'm still loving it, even tho no accumulation for ZIP62901.
Snow as accumulated on cars and grass area's.
Quoting Doppler22:
THUNDER! Thunder Snow!!!! First time I have heard that since 2003!!!! :D :D

BOOM! BOOM!! BOOM!!!! POW!!! POW!! POW!!! CRASH!!! CRASH!!! CRASH!!! FLASH! FLASH! FLASH!
*Jumps with joy at the winter storms all over the place*

For those of you who are wundering, this is not Winter Storm Brian.
Reports of Thundersnow in Baltimore and southern PA.
The grass, cars, and roofs are covered with snow now.
Sunday for Jacksonville, FL: Sunny with a few passing clouds, High 72. Weather looks better than the football game will be.
Happy Thanksgiving Dr Jeff and the WU Crew!
Sorry to see the NE mess, looks like it will be a white Thanksgiving for a lot of folks tomorrow morning...
May your turkey be moist and your pumpkin pie sweet,
Your mashed potatoes light, creamy and lump-free..

Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:
Sunday for Jacksonville, FL: Sunny with a few passing clouds, High 72. Weather looks better than the football game will be.

What about the football game?
Quoting 50. Climate175:

Reports of Thundersnow in Baltimore and southern PA.

I can verify that. I can also verify that I got so excited I nearly tripped running outside once I heard it.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good day

A beautiful 82 with a few clouds floating around this afternoon!

For a view of an amazing parallel parking job, take a look at this site:

Link

There are two ships docked and one in the harbor. That incoming ship, if you can't see it at the moment, will be there VERY soon and it will have to go between the last ship that is docked and the one anchored out, and park between the two docked ships.

Hope all is well with everyone!
Hi, Lindy, and Happy Thanksgiving. Looks like it will be a perfect tropical Thanksgiving down there. Not too bad here at 57 but we're still about 10 degrees below normal. I checked out your link and I assume you mean the three cruise ships at the dock in the first cam. I've spent many a fun day anchored out watching the tugs maneuver those ships alongside the dock, and all I can say is that they are way better mariners than me. :-)
Interestingly enough it snowed the day before Thanksgiving last year too.Also a interesting fact is that every snow event has over achieved in the D.C area in 2014.But I don't think this will be one.
I'm not sure if I can handle our 7 day forecast (Fort Myers).
Quoting Doppler22:

I can verify that. I can also verify that I got so excited I nearly tripped running outside once I heard it.
LOL. I was afraid that the outcome of being so excited was more embarrassing than just tripping on something. :-) Happy Thanksgiving, and try to control yourself when running in the house.
Quoting 43. sar2401:

Yeah, it will be pretty sloppy...or dangerous, depending on the destination. Compared to the Thanksgiving Day storms of 1989, this will be a piece of cake.

Check out the Thanksgiving storms of 1950 as well. Long distance air travel was still in its infancy, but most airports from NYC to Chicago were shut down and high winds contributed to the misery. I was only four years old at the time, so my memory of the event is a little hazy. :-) My parents regaled me with stories of them and our family of three tiny kids trying to get from Cleveland to Youngstown for Thanksgiving. My dad had to abandon his brand new 1950 Ford and walk for either fur, six, or 10 miles (depending on who was telling the story) to get help, since the car was buried in snow drifts that were up to four feet deep. We almost froze to death (according to my mom, anyway) until a National Guard half track pulled the car out of the drifts and we were able to make it to a local fire station, where we spent the next three days. Too bad the only thing I remember is climbing around on the fire trucks.


I had a nasty drive from DC to Williamsburg VA Thanksgiving eve 1989. 3-4" on the I95 surface and heavy snow down
to almost RIC where it finally changed over. Took me about six hours, most of the time north of RIC.

But I've never been snowbound in a car. Luck probably. Closest was the DC Veterans day storm of 1987 when I gave up half a mile from home east of Oxon Hill, after the 30 mile, six hour, drive from Rockville, drove into an off road snowdrift and walked the rest of the way.
Thundersnow seems so common these days. I'm not even impressed by it anymore.
Quoting 61. Sfloridacat5:


Heavy snow has set up over N.W D.C interestingly enough...
Winter Storm Cato.
Quoting 62. wxgeek723:

Thundersnow seems so common these days. I'm not even impressed by it anymore.

Well... I just got really excited because I hadn't heard it in years. But it does seem more common. Maybe it is just how social media is more evolved so it is reported more. *shrugs
Climate75- (Re: #51) Here too. But you would expect that in Alaska. Although it is so little you couldn't even measure it.
Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

Interestingly enough it snowed the day before Thanksgiving last year too.Also a interesting fact is that every snow event has over achieved in the D.C area in 2014.But I don't think this will be one.


That is because it is under-achieving here... But you can have the over achieving snow. When it does that here, you end up with 14 feet in a week... or so my neighbors tell me... I don't quite need that much snow.
Quoting 69. Dakster:



That is because it is under-achieving here... But you can have the over achieving snow. When it does that here, you end up with 14 feet in a week... or so my neighbors tell me... I don't quite need that much snow.
Yes back in the 2009-2010 Canada did not have snow for the winter games because it was all down here.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Heavy snow has set up over N.W D.C interestingly enough...


Maybe you'll get lucky enough to throw a few snowballs.
#thundersnow is trending on Twitter in the United States



wEt snow on my car with temp around 36F NEW HAVEN,CONN
Quoting 64. Sfloridacat5:

Winter Storm Cato.


Did you get some good rain last night? Just shy of 3.5 inches at my house from the total rain event.


no snow on the tree in new haven,conn great news!
79. JRRP

Quoting tampabaymatt:


Did you get some good rain last night? Just shy of 3.5 inches at my house from the total rain event.


We didn't get any rain yesterday. Our rain came in late last night and continued until this morning.
2.83" since midnight. That was a real good rain (lots of thunder and lightning too).
Nor'easter is full-on right now here in SE VA. Heavy rain, and winds steady over 35K, gusting upwards of 42K, pressure falling rapidly at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel:
Quoting 79. JRRP:



lol
If we go by the pattern two weeks ago we saw our first flakes two weeks later we have our first snow event (storm?).If we follow the trend then two weeks from now potentially we might see our first real snow storm.Don't qoute me on this.Interestingly its suppose to get cold 2nd week of December with the MJO and -NAO.
Nearby Weather Stations colder and snow mix with rain 12:41 PM EST on November 26, 2014
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
33.9 °F
Rock Hill
32.9 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
34.5 °F
Foxon
32.5 °F
East Haven Town Beach
34.8 °F
Branford Shoreline
35.0 °F
Yale, Kline Geology Lab
33.7 °F
Quoting 80. Sfloridacat5:



We didn't get any rain yesterday. Our rain came in late last night and continued until this morning.
2.83" since midnight. That was a real good rain (lots of thunder and lightning too).


The thunder and lightning is what impressed me the most about this system. Even when the heaviest of rains passed us by around 11:00 PM or so, I could still hear lots of booming and flashes of lightning.
how is the snowcane doing??
Quoting barbamz:
Thank you, doc. Hope you and your family enjoy a happy and undisturbed holiday.


The infamous Snow Bowl game against OSU from 1950.
Very few Wolverine fans were on hand to witness the triumph in Columbus because they couldn't get there. And the ones who did had a very difficult time getting home that Thanksgiving weekend. The day before the game, the worst blizzard since 1913 paralyzed the Midwest and Northeast and dipped as far south as Tennessee.
At least 9 inches of snow alone had fallen on Columbus Saturday morning. By game time, the temperature was nero zero and winds swirled around Ohio Stadium at nearly 30 miles an hour. Amazingly, 50,503 fans made it through the turnstiles. OSU officials did not even bother to take tickets so any spectator crazy enough to brave the weather elements could walk right in. ....
Source for more.
-------------------------------------

Live streaming WAMO-cam in D.C.
Thanks for posting that video, Barb. The Snow Bowl of 1950 is a legend among Ohio State and Michigan fans. There have been a few other snow bowls since but nothing matching 1950. I wrote another post on how my parents, me and my little brother and sister were trapped in that storm. I wish I had been older than four so I could really remember what happened. I suspect my parents may have embellished the story over the years. :-)

I remember hearing about Erntedankfest when I was in Germany, which I guess is the Thanksgiving of the German speaking peoples, but it seemed like it didn't have a fixed date and it depended on where you are in Germany if Erntedankfest was celebrated. A happy Erntedankfest from the USA, and thank you in particular for all the posts you've put up this year to keep us current on European weather.
Quoting 56. sar2401:

Hi, Lindy, and Happy Thanksgiving. Looks like it will be a perfect tropical Thanksgiving down there. Not too bad here at 57 but we're still about 10 degrees below normal. I checked out your link and I assume you mean the three cruise ships at the dock in the first cam. I've spent many a fun day anchored out watching the tugs maneuver those ships alongside the dock, and all I can say is that they are way better mariners than me. :-)


Hiya Sar

Yes, and I was speaking about the fourth that had to come in between them. The Allure is now arriving in the second camera. They're late today. So that puts 6 ships on island, and let's average 3,500 per ship, there's over 21,000 extra people on island. Thankfully I work where those cams are located and am avoiding downtown all together!!

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours also!

(Weather delays across the big pond affecting all flights coming to the island today)
Quoting 82. Gearsts:

lol


Are you kidding me? Lol. Let's see if the December 17 upgrade fix that model.
Quoting 73. TropicalAnalystwx13:

#thundersnow is trending on Twitter in the United States

Great. Mission accomplished.
Based on the traffic cam in the city, it looks like it stopped snowing in Washington DC?
Quoting tampabaymatt:


The thunder and lightning is what impressed me the most about this system. Even when the heaviest of rains passed us by around 11:00 PM or so, I could still hear lots of booming and flashes of lightning.
I don't know what has happened in Alabama but, even having tornadoes hasn't caused much lightning and thunder this year, at least in SE AL. I have to dope up Radar Dog when we get a bad storm because he's so terrified by lightning, but especially thunder. I got his twenty pills refilled in May. There are 17 left. In a "normal" year, he would have gone though the bottle by now and need a refill.
Rain Snow Ice Pellets Mist in new york city!! the next few hours maybe all snow!
35.1 °F
Quoting 82. Gearsts:

lol
that would be interesting if happens
just tossing this one out there.....the japanese modiki probability model shows that a weak to moderate modoki is possible

This answers my question to why it's not snowing in DC. Precipitation has ended for the moment in DC.
Quoting 93. sar2401:

I don't know what has happened in Alabama but, even having tornadoes hasn't caused much lightning and thunder this year, at least in SE AL. I have to dope up Radar Dog when we get a bad storm because he's so terrified by lighting, but especially thunder. I got his twenty pills refilled in May. There are 17 left. In a "normal" year, he would have gone though the bottle by now and need a refill.


My dogs go absolutely bonkers when we have a summer thunderstorm. My beagle gets so stressed out she starts drooling all over the house. Nothing I've tried keeps them calm.

It's pretty rare that we get an actual thunderstorm during the dry season. We've already had a few so far. Personally, I'm getting tired of this pattern. We really need a prolonged period of drying out. These huge rain events are going to cause major flooding problems if things don't calm down. There's just nowhere else for the water to go. Interestingly, Hillsborough County spent years repairing a huge water retention source due to cracks in the concrete. It holds some insane amount of water, like hundreds of billions of gallons. It went back online in September and is already 75% full. That just shows how much rain we've had since late September.
Quoting JRRP:

Wow! Four to six inches of rain over 10 days? Puerto Rico is doomed. :-)
Winter Storm Cato news and impacts article.

Total snowfall isn't the only thing to consider, however. Temperatures will be close to the 32-degree mark for most of the affected area, so this will be a heavy, wet snow. This could lead to broken tree limbs and power outages in areas where the snow is heaviest.

But it could also mean less impact on drivers where amounts are lighter, where roads may just be slushy or wet. Bear in mind that temperatures were in the 70s on Monday in parts of the Northeast, so ground temperatures are not very cold.

The rate of snowfall is also important. Some areas, especially closest to the rain/snow line, could see snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or more. Road conditions can deteriorate very quickly in snows of that intensity, as the snow can fall faster than road crews can clear it with plows. Even where the soil is warm, heavy rates of snowfall can allow snow to accumulate much faster than the ground can melt it.
Quoting 90. Tropicsweatherpr:



Are you kidding me? Lol. Let's see if the December 17 upgrade fix that model.


Delayed until January 7, 2015
Quoting 96. ricderr:

just tossing this one out there.....the japanese modiki probability model shows that a weak to moderate modoki is possible




Do you think CPC will pull the trigger on the December 4 monthly update to declare officially El Nino or they wait one more month?
bad news, all. All rain this afternoon, and snow won't mix in till 5pm.
Good news: Still no accumulations.
December is going to be more favorable, GFS already showing coastal storms.
Quoting 108. Climate175:

December is going to be more favorable, GFS already showing coastal storms.
Did you see my theory in post 83?.
If the 2 week pattern is correct then Dec 8-13 is a period to watch, models will likely pick it up soon.
Quoting 3. StormTrackerScott:

Thanks Doc lots of high PWAT air moved in from the NW Caribbean on Monday then Florida on Tuesday and now its heading for New England. it was almost like a perfect set up to get extreme rains in FL then fuel a major Nor Easter the next day.

PWAT's near 2" at Cape Cod by 0Z today. Amazing amount of moisture got sucked into this system.






Funny - I checked a PWS in Longwood. it reported 3.91 inches yesterday and 0.97" today, for a total of 4.88. Didn't you say you received 6.67"? It's funny that every time you report a rainfall total, it's significantly above the PWSs in your area. You might want to have your gauge checked.
Quoting 109. washingtonian115:

Did you see my theory in post 83?.
Yes, I was actually also thinking that, the Dec 5, 2009 is a good analog to this storm and then two weeks later we got the Dec 18-19 major snowstorm, this season seems to following that same pattern, looks like with a much colder December and active sub-tropical jet we are seeing, it will get stormy quick in Dec.
113. redux
Quoting 55. Doppler22:


I can verify that. I can also verify that I got so excited I nearly tripped running outside once I heard it.


I saw the lightning bolt and heard the thunder almost simultaneously.
Quoting 43. sar2401:


Oh yes, 1989! That was the year I had 2 holiday travel narrow escapes. We were heading to Dayton, OH for Thanksgiving that year & fortunately left home in VA the day before the Shenandoah Valley got buried in many inches of snow. It was also the year we were a day ahead of an ice storm in eastern Florida of all places. We were driving down to Grandma's in Naples, FL for Christmas. The in-laws weren't so fortunate however. They were on the road the same holidays, to the same destinations, the day after us in both occasions. Heavy snow forced them to spend an unplanned night in Staunton, VA Thanksgiving Eve & ice forced them off of I95, somewhere in, or near, Jacksonville, FL for another unplanned hotel stay on, or the night before, Christmas Eve that year. Was a family joke about being sure not to travel with the in-laws on a holiday for a long time.
Do you think CPC will pull the trigger on the December 4 monthly update to declare officially El Nino or they wait one more month?


as much as i want them to say yes.....as the month ends i'm guessing they'll hold out......while the enso 3.4 region could see a weekly anomalyas high as 1.0C in this monday's update......the soi is climbing again and the running 30 day value is now at -6.5....and the espi is at -0.11.....so since the experts are still in agreement this will be a weak el nino if it indeed does materialize...and with some of the key contributing indicators still not doing as expected....i'm guessing they will not do anything
116. OCF
The NWS Los Angeles guy writing the forecast discussion on when the next rain is coming to Southern California. (Monday? Tuesday? Whenever?)

"RAIN MIGHT DEVELOP MONDAY OR IT MIGHT HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY OR IF THE NEW EC IS CORRECT TUESDAY NIGHT. REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE LIKE RAY GUY AND PUNT THIS FCST INTO TOMORROW AND HOPE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT."
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:



Funny - I checked a PWS in Longwood. it reported 3.91 inches yesterday and 0.97" today, for a total of 4.88. Didn't you say you received 6.67"? It's funny that every time you report a rainfall total, it's significantly above the PWSs in your area. You might want to have your gauge checked.


Well here's the deal if you don't believe well that's your problem as not just me but others in my area have reported the same totals or very close plus or minus. At 11pm per Tom Terry on last night news Longwood was at 6.46" and it was still pouring at that time furthermore just north of me in Lake Mary at that same timeframe reported 6.48 and there were other totals over 7" being reported in my area. So before you come on here and assume as usual to insight a conflict maybe you should do some research before you assume. Also Longwood extends all the way to CR 427 from the Orange/Seminole line.

Also others on here saw the same totals being reported on news last night and today so they can also vouch for this. For reference below the red shaded areas are 6" to 8" of rain being estimated by the NWS

Hey all. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving and safe travels.
I should have a season analysis coming this December if my schedule allows for it.
I'll be in London for New Years marching with my band in the parade.
2004 Fiesta Bowl

2008 Macy's Thanksgiving day Parade

2012 Texas Independence Day Parade


Enjoy the last 4 days of hurricane season ;)
Funny - I checked a PWS in Longwood. it reported 3.91 inches yesterday and 0.97" today, for a total of 4.88. Didn't you say you received 6.67"? It's funny that every time you report a rainfall total, it's significantly above the PWSs in your area. You might want to have your gauge checked.


just look for the house with the dark cloud over it.....ta da da boom!

Hey all. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving and safe travels.
I should have a season analysis coming this December if my schedule allows for it.
I'll be in London for New Years marching with my band in the parade.
2004 Fiesta Bowl


congratulations.....seeing that we decided to stay home i'm contemplating if i'll take the kids to the sunbowl parade tomorrow
121. bwi
Quoting 92. Sfloridacat5:

Based on the traffic cam in the city, it looks like it stopped snowing in Washington DC?


Snow only lasted a hour or so in my area. Light coating on the grassy areas is all. Show's over I'm thinking.
Quoting 117. StormTrackerScott:



Well here's the deal if you don't believe well that's your problem as not just me but others in my area have reported the same totals or very close plus or minus. At 11pm per Tom Terry on last night news Longwood was at 6.46" and it was still pouring at that time furthermore just north of me in Lake Mary at that same timeframe reported 6.48 and there were other totals over 7" being reported in my area. So before you come on here and assume as usual to insight a conflict maybe you should do some research before you assume. Also Longwood extends all the way to CR 427 from the Orange/Seminole line.

Also others on here so the same totals being reported on news last night and today so they can also vouch for this. For reference below the red shaded areas are 6" to 8" of rain being estimated by the NWS




That doesn't change the fact that the PWSs in your area are reporting totals lower than that. So, someone or something is reporting unreliable data. I'm not sure whether the PWSs are off, or what. I don't care to "do research" on how much rain you received, just wanted to point that out.
How about this one Scott? It shows what the colors represent.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Funny - I checked a PWS in Longwood. it reported 3.91 inches yesterday and 0.97" today, for a total of 4.88. Didn't you say you received 6.67"? It's funny that every time you report a rainfall total, it's significantly above the PWSs in your area. You might want to have your gauge checked.


Very accurate CoCoRaHS rainfall totals.

Link
Quoting tampabaymatt:


My dogs go absolutely bonkers when we have a summer thunderstorm. My beagle gets so stressed out she starts drooling all over the house. Nothing I've tried keeps them calm.

It's pretty rare that we get an actual thunderstorm during the dry season. We've already had a few so far. Personally, I'm getting tired of this pattern. We really need a prolonged period of drying out. These huge rain events are going to cause major flooding problems if things don't calm down. There's just nowhere else for the water to go. Interestingly, Hillsborough County spent years repairing a huge water retention source due to cracks in the concrete. It holds some insane amount of water, like hundreds of billions of gallons. It went back online in September and is already 75% full. That just shows how much rain we've had since late September.
Radar Dog gets a doggie form of Valium. It doesn't really reduce his anxiety level, it just makes him sleepy, so I can put him and his bed in our bathroom, which has no windows and is well insulated, so he can't see the lightning or hear the thunder as loud as it would be if wasn't in there. He can usually sleep through the storm then, except when we get our 14-16 hours straight of training storms. Then he needs a second does. I've tried every other remedy, from "natural" anti-anxiety pills to a Thunder Shirt, and none of them work, poor guy.

I really think something is going on. While Florida gets all the heavy rain, I get very little or nothing at all. I got 0.23" from the storm yesterday while you guys were taking it on the chin. November and December are our secondary severe weather season, with the real show cranking up in March. It's actually very common for me to get thunderstorms now, but we've had almost none. Our average November rainfall is right around 4.00" and I've had 2.59" so far, and half of that was from one storm last weekend. We had almost 22" of rain in April from our floods but, since then, every month has been below normal. A year ago, about 23% of the state was in one of the four drought levels. Now it's up to 64%. I'm in that brown spot in SE AL, showing moderate drought conditions, and my plants that are hardy and survived the freeze last week still need to be watered every day. The temperature is up to 63 but the dewpoint is only 30, giving us 29% RH. I don't know what you guys in Florida are doing but you can stop now and send some of those storms up here. :-)

Quoting 54. 62901IL:


What about the football game?


I will be rooting on the Giants at EverBank Field Sunday in a titanic clash between teams with a combined record of 4-17.


heavy sleet right now in new haven,conn temp down to 33F
Very accurate CoCoRaHS rainfall totals.


that's where i go when i want to sample areas..........good post!!!

How about this one Scott? It shows what the colors represent.



thanx s florida......a graph without an explanation of scale is just a pretty picture
Quoting 112. Climate175:

Yes, I was actually also thinking that, the Dec 5, 2009 is a good analog to this storm and then two weeks later we got the Dec 18-19 major snowstorm, this season seems to following that same pattern, looks like with a much colder December and active sub-tropical jet we are seeing, it will get stormy quick in Dec.
Looks like the snowy and cold winter will get off to a good start with a warm period next week then cold should arrive.
Quoting 129. ricderr:

Very accurate CoCoRaHS rainfall totals.


that's where i go when i want to sample areas..........good post!!!


I use that site also to verify the accuracy of my rain gauge. There is one station here very close to my home reporting 3.49. I reported 3.43 earlier today, so seems right on the money. If I was posting nonsensical totals from my gauge that didn’t add up to surrounding areas, I’d want to know about it. Why have a rain gauge if it’s not accurate?
I think i got to do some research into this, really interesting.
134. Inyo
The snow is settling into Montpelier, Vermont - started about an hour ago and started sticking almost immedlately. Warmest I saw was 32 and once any precipitation started the temp dropped a few degrees - so no wet stuff for us. We are slightly north of the heaviest precip but that also means fluffier snow... they are calling for 9-10 inches but I have a feeling we have a shot at a foot of snow.
Will be a snowy thanksgiving here!
Quoting QueensWreath:


Very accurate CoCoRaHS rainfall totals.

Link


Pretty cool map. I just don't understand the date system.
Yesterday, there was a lot of rain in the Orlando/Tampa area (11/25/14), but it doesn't show up for that date.
Quoting 122. StormTrackerScott:



Same trolls day in day out with nothing better to do.


By the way, the word you're trying to use is incite, not insight. Ta da da da boom!!
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I use that site also to verify the accuracy of my rain gauge. There is one station here very close to my home reporting 3.49. I reported 3.43 earlier today, so seems right on the money. If I was posting nonsensical totals from my gauge that didn’t add up to surrounding areas, I’d want to know about it. Why have a rain gauge if it’s not accurate?


Then I assume you looked at the Longwood area and noticed the very large rain totals that more than substantiate a 6" total.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Pretty cool map. I just don't understand the date system.
Yesterday, there was a lot of rain in the Orlando/Tampa area (11/25/14), but it doesn't show up for that date.


They always measure in 24 hr time-frames.7am to 7am
Quoting 122. StormTrackerScott:



Same trolls day in day out with nothing better to do.
It was much worse. It has improved a lot over the years.
Quoting 137. QueensWreath:



Then I assume you looked at the Longwood area and noticed the very large rain totals that more than substantiate a 6" total.


I didn't see many in the Longwood area. There was one, but it was reporting something in the high 4's".
            • Quoting 133. Climate175:

I think i got to do some research into this, really interesting.
I use that site also to verify the accuracy of my rain gauge. There is one station here very close to my home reporting 3.49. I reported 3.43 earlier today, so seems right on the money. If I was posting nonsensical totals from my gauge that didn’t add up to surrounding areas, I’d want to know about it. Why have a rain gauge if it’s not accurate?


i did the same when i lived in florida....and do so now as i live in el paso....


it's quite different here than there however...in florida i noticed that mine was almost always close to others in my area....however....here in el paso.......one area may get rain...and just a half mile away have no rain at all......the one thing that was constant in both areas though....i'm just as apt to get less rain than the official precip totals...as i am to get more
Just for fun here is the GFS
Quoting 143. SFLWeatherman:

Just for fun here is the GFS

Besides Gonzalo we couldn't even get decent T.S in the tropics DURING the season XD.I highly doubt one for so late will be that organize and smash into P.R and the northern Antillies.
NWS reports regionally also

MLB
TBW
JAX
Quoting 124. Sfloridacat5:

How about this one Scott? It shows what the colors represent.



Thank you for whatever reason the totals didn't show up when I saved it.
Quoting 123. tampabaymatt:



That doesn't change the fact that the PWSs in your area are reporting totals lower than that. So, someone or something is reporting unreliable data. I'm not sure whether the PWSs are off, or what. I don't care to "do research" on how much rain you received, just wanted to point that out.


Well your wrong if you are referring to my area as many reports from my particular area have totals of 7 to 7.5" after last nights rain it could be the PWS that you are referring to is on the other side of town which could make since as we had training cells yesterday from my area up to Daytona Beach with totals there of 8" to 8.5".
Quoting 125. QueensWreath:



Very accurate CoCoRaHS rainfall totals.

Link


Thanks as always buddy!
I didn't see many in the Longwood area. There was one, but it was reporting something in the high 4's".


you can also go to the ones here on wunderground
Over at NASA a total of 8.09" is being reported.
2nd week of Dec
The week of Christmas
The first full week of Jan
Quoting JRRP:



LOL WAT.

Given that particular model resolution, I wouldn't be surprised if the actual pressure was lower than 1004 mbar. That'd be crazy to happen in that location in December.
Quoting 138. QueensWreath:



They always measure in 24 hr time-frames.7am to 7am

Well technically our daily rainfall is 1200UTC to 1200UTC... it's tied to UTC not local time. During standard time that is 6am (CST). During daylight saving time that is 7am (CDT).

Although if we are talking about volunteer observers (such as COOP or CoCoRaHS), just be careful. The goal is the same time each day, around 1200 UTC. But that doesn't always happen. We know that sometimes observers are late, or may even report early. The times we see this happen the most is when heavy weather is passing the observer's location; they may not want to go outside during a thunderstorm to measure their gauge. This can cause us issues when QCing radar estimates, but it just comes with that type of data. We'd rather have the data with those kinds of issues than no data at all.
Quoting 154. hydrus:


Now Hydrus why did you have to post that? :).At the 144 hour mark..interesting...
156. 882MB
Quoting 144. washingtonian115:

Besides Gonzalo we couldn't even get decent T.S in the tropics DURING the season XD.I highly doubt one for so late will be that organize and smash into P.R and the northern Antillies.


Really rare, but could happen. Hurricane Lenny, in 1999 came in from the same direction as a category 4 in mid to late November, also in 2007 the island experienced Tropical storm olga in mid December. So rare, but not unheard of ;)
SFWD has 8.77" at Lake Kissimmee.

Quoting ScottLincoln:

Well technically our daily rainfall is 1200UTC to 1200UTC... it's tied to UTC not local time. During standard time that is 6am (CST). During daylight saving time that is 7am (CDT).

Although if we are talking about volunteer observers (such as COOP or CoCoRaHS), just be careful. The goal is the same time each day, around 1200 UTC. But that doesn't always happen. We know that sometimes observers are late, or may even report early. The times we see this happen the most is when heavy weather is passing the observer's location; they may not want to go outside during a thunderstorm to measure their gauge. This can cause us issues when QCing radar estimates, but it just comes with that type of data. We'd rather have the data with those kinds of issues than no data at all.


Yes absolutely. Always is an overstatement. I was trying to let a poster know that the date of report was not the date of the majority of reading timeframe.
Next Tues-Wed.
12z ECMWF has a formidable Typhoon making landfall in the Philippines.

Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

Now Hydrus why did you have to post that? :).At the 144 hour mark..interesting...
Stormy Dec at work.
6.12 inches downtown Orlando at WFTV (KFLORLAN65) station. 5.76 yesterday, .36 today.
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST.

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. NOT A LOT TO ADD
TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, HOWEVER WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT QPF
VALUES FROM WPC ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE SECOND REMAINS PROBLEMATIC
(ECMWF SHOWS A 36-48 HOUR BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WHILE THE GFS/GEM
SHOW MORE OF A CONTINUAL EVENT). IF THE GFS VERIFIES HYDRO
CONCERNS WOULD BE MUCH MORE ELEVATED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK, THE AMOUNT BEING FORECAST (2-4"
FOR URBAN SPOTS WITH WELL OVER 1/2 A FOOT IN THE HILLS) WILL
PRODUCE SOME HYDRO PROBLEMS. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE VERY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC VALUES OFF THE GFS (UP TO 60 KT FROM THE SW) COMBINED
WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.3". OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE THE
WINDS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WINDY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH LESS AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE, HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT.

Looks like we may be busting the drought this season. The green is already starting to return to the hills of northern California.
Quoting 157. Sfloridacat5:

SFWD has 8.77" at Lake Kissimmee.




That's a lot of water that is feeding into the ST Johns River. I suspect that we could get some flood statements for people living along the ST Johns over the coming days as the river was already high before we had all of this rain the last several days.
Quoting 163. Naga5000:

6.12 inches downtown Orlando at WFTV (KFLORLAN65) station. 5.76 yesterday, .36 today.


Port Orange according to WFTV had over 8" with 6" to 7" here in Seminole County similar to what you had in Downtown Orlando. We were getting hit hard last night at 9pm which really raised our rain totals big time.
A lot going on these recent weeks around the US and the world at all levels (both human and weather-wise), but Thanksgiving is a unique American Holiday and a time for families to get together and try to reflect on the good things and be thankful.

Here is hoping for safe holiday travels for those planning to or on the road already and enjoy the company of your friends and family as much as possible and share the precious moments.

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone.
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

Now Hydrus why did you have to post that? :).At the 144 hour mark..interesting...


Still getting heavy snow?
Quoting 162. Climate175:

Stormy Dec at work.
I like the way things are look'in!.
It's been snowing for over an hour but nothing's really accumulating.
Quoting 169. washingtonian115:

I like the way things are look'in!.


Yup, the last 2 weeks of December look very active as the NAO may crash due to stratospheric warming occurring near North Pole. Hydrus was all over this earlier and had a great post referring to that saying that it would be a 2 week lag before the cold returns.
172. vis0
let me wish for thunder snow in nyc (last 5 yrs 3 trs have had thunder snow)......................................
Luckily, it's been warm lately across the Eastcoast and the temperatures are just above freezing today in the major cities.
I95 from D.C. to New York City appears to be just wet (snow isn't sticking to the highway).
Travel west of I95 and all bets are off.

Had it been a little bit colder, this snow event could have been significantly worse for Eastcoast travel.

Live cams of I95 - New York

Link
Quoting 171. StormTrackerScott:



Yup, the last 2 weeks of December look very active as the NAO may crash due to stratospheric warming occurring near North Pole. Hydrus was all over this earlier and had a great post referring to that saying that it would be a 2 week lag before the cold returns.
Just getting small flakes that are flying all over the place.Since the storm is pulling away and ramping up the winds have started to pick up.
The real snowstorm is coming, this was just a teaser. I always knew since October that December will provide.

Capital Weather GangVerified account
‏@capitalweather
Dulles Airport has set snowfall record for today's date of 1.3" (old record was 1.1" from 1978). May get some more:
If WU blog were around in the 80s and early 90s.
Rain and snow mixed now, but more rain than snow. It's not sticking.
Quoting 175. Climate175:

The real snowstorm is coming, this was just a teaser. I always knew since October that December will provide.


It likely won't deliver though until the second half of December as I think the Eastern US is heading into a relatively dry period for the next 2 weeks but then again the models can switch fast so well see what happens the next several days.
Quoting 179. 62901IL:

Rain and snow mixed now, but more rain than snow. It's not sticking.


Too much warm air got dragged with it as it moved north from the Gulf. This airmass was a very warm moist one as us Floridians know quite well from what happened yesterday we had PWAT's over 2.2" and that air got dragged up the eastern US and is expected to reach Cape Cod this evening.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


My dogs go absolutely bonkers when we have a summer thunderstorm. My beagle gets so stressed out she starts drooling all over the house. Nothing I've tried keeps them calm.

It's pretty rare that we get an actual thunderstorm during the dry season. We've already had a few so far. Personally, I'm getting tired of this pattern. We really need a prolonged period of drying out. These huge rain events are going to cause major flooding problems if things don't calm down. There's just nowhere else for the water to go. Interestingly, Hillsborough County spent years repairing a huge water retention source due to cracks in the concrete. It holds some insane amount of water, like hundreds of billions of gallons. It went back online in September and is already 75% full. That just shows how much rain we've had since late September.

My beagle is hilarious. He's only 6 months old, so he hasn't had much experience with thundestorms. Whenever it thunders, he looks up at the sky and tilts his head both directions and then starts howling. It'll be interesting to see his reaction to snow.
Quoting 160. Climate175:
Next Tues-Wed.


Looks like rain. I love everything about that.
Quoting 183. TimSoCal:



Looks like rain. I love everything about that.
We both get goodies!
Spectacular Satellite Image!



What I like most about this picture is that there is not a thing made by humans that can be seen in the picture.

I can't see New Orleans. That's a pretty big city, too.
Quoting 177. washingtonian115:


Capital Weather GangVerified account
‏@capitalweather
Dulles Airport has set snowfall record for today's date of 1.3" (old record was 1.1" from 1978). May get some more:


In 1978 I had my first accumulating snow, about an inch, before my first freeze Nov 26-27. First freeze was a few days later; I wasn't
there to record it having just left to start my undergraduate work at Penn State. Snow on live (but not very happy) tomato and banana plants would have made a good picture.
Quoting 183. TimSoCal:



Looks like rain. I love everything about that.
Yes you get your rain and we get our snow.We both win (Well except Kori because he still doesn't have his storm).

StormTrackerScott the models are already going all flip flop showing opportunities for snow in the next week and a half.
Quoting 180. StormTrackerScott:



It likely won't deliver though until the second half of December as I think the Eastern US is heading into a relatively dry period for the next 2 weeks but then again the models can switch fast so well see what happens the next several days.


Whether the models switch fast is irrelevant. The atmosphere can switch fast though.. point is valid :-)
Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:



Too much warm air got dragged with it as it moved north from the Gulf. This airmass was a very warm moist one as us Floridians know quite well from what happened yesterday we had PWAT's over 2.2" and that air got dragged up the eastern US and is expected to reach Cape Cod this evening.


Even today the models always are too fast with shallow cold air that comes over the Appalachian mountains. It's
always delayed a few hours or more.

During this time of the year when the season and then atmosphere is always changing the models will always be changing very frequently.
Meteorological Winter begins in 5 days.
Looks like we got a timeframe to watch Dec 2-3.
Quoting 190. Climate175:

During this time of the year when the season and then atmosphere is always changing the models will always be changing very frequently.


Actually spring is a much more variable season than early Winter and loopy "strange" patterns in the jet stream are more common then.
Quoting 193. georgevandenberghe:



Actually spring is a much more variable season than early Winter and loopy "strange" patterns in the jet stream are more common then.
Yeah because you go from cold to warm and back and forth until Spring fully sets in.
The clipper over S.E.Iowa..

Quoting 166. StormTrackerScott:



Port Orange according to WFTV had over 8" with 6" to 7" here in Seminole County similar to what you had in Downtown Orlando. We were getting hit hard last night at 9pm which really raised our rain totals big time.

I am grateful for all the rain since I just moved into a new house and planted a whole yard full of landscaping. My water bill this past month was over $600, covering the bone dry period from roughly October 4 to November 10. Everything was and still is getting established and would just dry out super quickly without copious and regular watering. Now, I haven't had to water in at least two weeks.
Quoting Climate175:
Year because you go from cold to warm and back and forth until Spring fully sets in.


On Monday, record highs were set along the eastcoast including Washington DC (which tied their record for the date with 74)

Two days later, some of these same areas are seeing record snowfall accumulations for the date.

Pretty cool to have record highs and record snowfall within a three day time span.

Reports from the major cities along the Eastcoast.

DC - light rain, 37 degrees
Baltimore - Light snow/rain/mist - 34 degrees
Philadelphia - light rain, 36 degrees
New York City - light rain, 36 degrees
Boston - ice pellets/rain/mist, 37 degrees

About 3.5" near York, PA. Not as much as many hoped for/expected but hey. Oh well. Another strong band coming through now that may give another inch possibly and then it looks about done. At least i'll get a white Thanksgiving if Christmas doesn't deliver. :p
Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:



Too much warm air got dragged with it as it moved north from the Gulf. This airmass was a very warm moist one as us Floridians know quite well from what happened yesterday we had PWAT's over 2.2" and that air got dragged up the eastern US and is expected to reach Cape Cod this evening.

The storm carried Florida's pwats or warm air up north?
Did Bastardi really say that on his pay-per-view site?
Quoting CosmicEvents:

The storm carried Florida's pwats or warm air up north?
Did Bastardi really say that on his pay-per-view site?



Did you see the lamb chop cam that went into orbit?
Your question about air movement reminded me of the story.
Link


storm update!! US Current Surface Map


rainning in new haven again..


watching the rain and snow line




more snow to come in the next 12 hours!
Quoting 201. Sfloridacat5:




Did you see the lamb chop cam that went into orbit?
Your question about air movement reminded me of the story.
Link
Funny stuff.
Maybe Bastardi tells those who don't upgrade high enough that it's gonna' rain oranges in Manhattan.


posted a photo claiming 18 inches of snow had also fallen in Baker, an unincorporated community in the Eastern Panhandle on november 26 2014

It started snowing here in Portland Maine around 11 am. Brief period of sleet, then snow and now heavy snow. Despite the last few days of warmer weather, the snow started sticking rather quickly. 4" and counting now and at the current rate that is going to increase in a hurry. Not often we have a white Thanksgiving but clearly will this year!
Afternoon all. Glad my folks are not traveling in this wx .... in case I don't get in here tomorrow ... Happy [pre-]Thanksgiving to all....
Quoting 202. hurricanes2018:



storm update!! US Current Surface Map
Some nice pics in the last blog, 2018 .... that front between here and FL is now making itself seen and felt. I guess we'll have rain overnight and a temp shift tomorrow.



(Saved loop). Source.

Good evening with a glance at south(western) Europe and northern Africa which is one again the target of severe weather. In the Atlantic off the coast of Portugal and Morocco the forecast from Estofex concerning an approaching cold front came to fruition: "With southerly prevailing flow parallel to the front, it is likely that an MCS in form of parallel stratiform region will form with new cells regenerating at the southern part of the system. Especially close to the coastline areas, cell training may result in excessive precipitation events."

The spiraling system is easy to spot in the satellite pics above, causing fresh flooding in Morocco and sadly raising the death toll from 32 (last weekend) to the current total amount of 36.

Dozens killed as Morocco hit by fresh floods
EuroNews, 26/11 14:00 CET

No news from tonight are available so far, and the worst is still to come anyway: Accumulated rain forecast until Sunday (GFS):



In Portugal the area around Lisbon suffered flooding, and in Spain 17 provinces are on alert because of torrential rains and strong winds.

Flooding in Lisbon/Portugal today:


Meanwhile, further to the east Southern France was (and still is) hit by the remnants of the earlier front, advecting warm and moist air from the south and dumping once again torrential rains onto already saturated soils.

Fresh video report (in French but with pictures).

In the departement of Var the annual record of accumulated rain (Mons with 1849.5mm in 1960) has already been broken in the village of Collobrieres with currently 1945.5mm since 01/01/14 (Source in French below).


Accumulated rain in this region Nov25/26 - and it's still raining. (Source Meteo France by Nicematin)

Top amounts of rainfall in Southern France during the last 48h according to wetteronline:
Le Luc (82m, Frankreich) 182.0 l/m2
Hyeres/Le Palyvestr (4m, Frankreich) 177.0 l/m2
Kap Cepet (136m, Frankreich) 118.0 l/m2


Accumulated rains 24h in France.
Quoting CosmicEvents:

The storm carried Florida's pwats or warm air up north?
Did Bastardi really say that on his pay-per-view site?
LOL. At least he didn't say anything about the storm sucking, I guess. :-)
Quoting 169. washingtonian115:

I like the way things are look'in!.
it could be scary hope you are ready

Quoting 161. Tropicsweatherpr:

12z ECMWF has a formidable Typhoon making landfall in the Philippines.




Bopha/Pablo part 2.


212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Spooky...
that gfs I posted if ya look at the end of the run in se corner its shows a system movin due north coming up from east carb now that will be spooky strange
TS in Dec XD, that would be a sight. NHC gonna be on it!
Quoting 212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it could be scary hope you are ready

It's time to bring out the flamethrower..

Quoting 218. washingtonian115:

It's time to bring out the flamethrower..

I can fix the flamethrower temps just got to get down to -40c or colder and well gas for that thing will freeze up solid
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all. Glad my folks are not traveling in this wx .... in case I don't get in here tomorrow ... Happy [pre-]Thanksgiving to all....
Happy Thanksgiving to you as well. Beautiful day in Alabama. Clear blue skies with a high of 66 and humidity of just 25%-30% in the afternoon. Felt like I was back in Nevada today.

I gave up on the whole Thanksgiving travel thing after 1989, when I was stuck in Pittsburgh airport for almost 48 hours. I spent as much time as I could finding corners to curl up in and finishing two books I had been trying to read for a year. I had flown from San Francisco to Pittsburgh with a transfer to a puddle jumper to White Plains NY on Thanksgiving eve. My flight finally showed up Friday morning. That was it for me. :-)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that gfs I posted if ya look at the end of the run in se corner its shows a system movin due north coming up from east carb now that will be spooky strange
That's one of those storms in the "I'll believe it when I see it" category. :-)
ghost system in the carb tavels from sw carb across eastward then lift n ne ward exit over pr weird model runs but now will have to watch see if it keeps showing up


Quoting 87. sar2401:

I remember hearing about Erntedankfest when I was in Germany, which I guess is the Thanksgiving of the German speaking peoples, but it seemed like it didn't have a fixed date and it depended on where you are in Germany if Erntedankfest was celebrated. A happy Erntedankfest from the USA, and thank you in particular for all the posts you've put up this year to keep us current on European weather.


Thanks, Sar; just my pleasure :-)
Erntedankfest (Thanksgiving) isn't a real holiday in Germany any longer. Most secular people won't notice it at all. Nowadays it's mostly only celebrated in christian services on the first Sunday in October; inside the churches you'll find some decoration with fruits, vegetables and other goods of nature on this day.

Instead of turkey a lot of Germans and other Europeans traditionally cherish roasted and stuffed goose with red cabbage and dumplings. Originally it has been the dish for St. Martin's day (November 11), but today it is served in late autumn and especially in December at (Pre-)Christmas parties and festivities. My nephew is apprentice in an ambitious kitchen of a wealthy bank and has to prepare and roast several hundreds of gooses for heads, guests and staff this time of the year, lol.

Eat like a German - German Recipe:
Traditional Roast Goose German Style

And here a professional explains the recipe:


Please take this off topic post as my best wishes to all of you on Thanksgiving!
dec 4 looks like its when it shows up lol



So Hurricane Season getting extended lol.
Quoting 226. Climate175:

So Hurricane Season getting extended lol.
I would not go that far yet but weird seems to be new normal when it comes to weather of late
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Luckily, it's been warm lately across the Eastcoast and the temperatures are just above freezing today in the major cities.
I95 from D.C. to New York City appears to be just wet (snow isn't sticking to the highway).
Travel west of I95 and all bets are off.

Had it been a little bit colder, this snow event could have been significantly worse for Eastcoast travel.

Live cams of I95 - New York

Link
About half the cams seem to be down, but the ones that are working appear to show all rain. The temperature in Central Park has risen from 34 earlier today up to 37 now. A couple of degrees makes all the difference in these East Coast storms, which is one of the reasons I don't buy doom forecasts until the precipitation actually starts hitting the ground.
The ghost storm on the GFS is probably just a byproduct of the upward MJO pulse forecast to move into the region in the extended range.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ghost system in the carb tavels from sw carb across eastward then lift n ne ward exit over pr weird model runs but now will have to watch see if it keeps showing up


Has WKC been notified of this development yet? This storm has no chance until I start seeing posts from him about it. :-)
231. 882MB
Quoting 223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ghost system in the carb tavels from sw carb across eastward then lift n ne ward exit over pr weird model runs but now will have to watch see if it keeps showing up



%u012B

I see the new 18Z GFS model run, continues to show development, also continues to move up in timeline. Like I said earlier, very rare but not unheard of, waters in the Caribbean, are still warm enough to support a tropical system, all will depend on the shear and steering currents, which now favor a ENE motion towards the NE Caribbean. Either way looks like some very heavy rain even if it does not develop. I will be watching to see if any more models start agreeing on this scenario.
Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ghost storm on the GFS is probably just a byproduct of the upward MJO pulse forecast to move into the region in the extended range.
ghost storm or not interesting to say the least now that model will keep me watchin see what it does with it

here it is on dec 14 10 days later I know its not real but interesting too look at anyway

233. Inyo
At least 5 or 6 inches of snow on the ground in Montpelier VT, still dumping down, we are going to have a shot at a foot of snow by the time it all moves out!
It won't really thaw until Sunday at the soonest so plenty of snow to play in this long weekend! Depending on what other sorts of thaws come this may be it - it may stick around unto real winter.
In the Philippines the storm was named as "Queenie":


Source Pagasa.

Power outages hit Bohol in Queenie's wake, some areas evacuated
November 27, 2014 3:55am
Power outages hit parts of Bohol province in Central Visayas since Wednesday night amid heavy rain from Tropical Depression Queenie, state-run Philippine Information Agency said.
In Jagna town, PIA's Bohol unit quoted the local information office as saying power had been out since 9 p.m. Wednesday.
Jagna also experienced "very strong" winds, along with possible storm surge and high tide.
Evacuation was ongoing in coastal barangays.
Heavy rain was also noted in Cortes town, with winds shaking houses, the PIA said.
Several other towns in Bohol also experienced power outages.
In Dumaguete City in Negros Oriental, meanwhile, heavy rains fell and cable TV signals became intermittent. %u2014 Joel Locsin/ELR, GMA News


US people obviously aren't the only folks with difficulties to travel tonight ;-)

Thousand stranded in Mindanao ports amid 'Queenie'
ABC video report in local language, 11/27/2014 2:20 AM

Good night from my side of the pond!
Just stopped snowing here in Carbondale...got about 1/2 an inch...but the next name on the list is still Brian since this one wasn't named.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ghost storm on the GFS is probably just a byproduct of the upward MJO pulse forecast to move into the region in the extended range.


Any clue if the PGFS will have the same issue once it takes over later on? I believe it's supposed to become operational by December.
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy:



Any clue if the PGFS will have the same issue once it takes over later on? I believe it's supposed to become operational by December.


Upgrade of GFS delayed to January 5
Quoting 235. 62901IL:

Just stopped snowing here in Carbondale...got about 1/2 an inch...but the next name on the list is still Brian since this one wasn't named.
Too bad that those who experienced 1/2 an inch aren't able to put a name on the event so it can be forever remembered. I say we give them a name to remember...winter storm Bupkus.
Quoting 210. barbamz:

Especially close to the coastline areas, cell training may result in excessive precipitation events. The spiraling system is easy to spot in the satellite pics above, causing fresh flooding in Morocco and sadly raising the death toll from 32 (last weekend) to the current total amount of 36.


The forecast for Morocco has high rain amounts in the next 120 hours, also for some local spots in south Europe:



Forecast for the Jet Stream for the night to Friday:



Weird is the new normal I guess.


Jeb1992's wundercam in Morgantown, PA.

Quoting 209. BahaHurican:

Some nice pics in the last blog, 2018 .... that front between here and FL is now making itself seen and felt. I guess we'll have rain overnight and a temp shift tomorrow.
LOL .... it started raining about 5 minutes after I posted this message... lol ...
Quoting 243. Skyepony:

Jeb1992's wundercam in Morgantown, PA.


nothing beats a fresh fall of snow its my fav when its just a couple of hrs old and it normally is so quiet afterwards then tomorrow after everyone walks and drives in it it gets all dirty and sloppy
Quoting barbamz:


Thanks, Sar; just my pleasure :-)
Erntedankfest (Thanksgiving) isn't a real holiday in Germany any longer. Most secular people won't notice it at all. Nowadays it's mostly only celebrated in christian services on the first Sunday in October; inside the churches you'll find some decoration with fruits, vegetables and other goods of nature on this day.

Instead of turkey a lot of Germans and other Europeans traditionally cherish roasted and stuffed goose with red cabbage and dumplings. Originally it has been the dish for St. Martin's day (November 11), but today it is served in late autumn and especially in December at (Pre-)Christmas parties and festivities. My nephew is apprentice in an ambitious kitchen of a wealthy bank and has to prepare and roast several hundreds of gooses for heads, guests and stuff this time of the year, lol.

Eat like a German - German Recipe:
Traditional Roast Goose German Style

And here a professional explains the recipe:


Please take this off topic post as my best wishes to all of you on Thanksgiving!
Sounds fabulous, but I'm not even sure where could find a packet of mugwort or even a goose here. Ducks are not a problem, but I don't even remember seeing a goose for sale. The cooking procedure makes roasting a turkey sound easy by comparison. There's quite a bit of weather folklore surrounding St. Martins Day. In English folklore, a period of fine, calm weather, similar to an Indian summer, occurring in November, is attributed to St. Martin. Hungarian sayings are that, "If on St. Martin’s Day the goose walks on ice, it will be waddling in water on Christmas" and “If Martin arrives on a white horse snow), expect a mild winter. If Martin arrives on a brown horse (ground made muddy by rain) a harsh winter can be expected.” I found several instances of "Ice before Martinmas means mud at Christmas" and
"If the leaves do not fall by St. Martin's, expect a cold winter" as common in many parts of Europe. And, for Naga, there's even a sociology paper done about St. Martin's Day in Ireland, including even more weather folklore about St. Martin's Day, so St. Martin is not so off-topic after all. Isn't Google wonderful? :-)
Quoting 244. BahaHurican:

LOL .... it started raining about 5 minutes after I posted this message... lol ...

Look out.. it's cold on the backside of that. Just got to 49.8ºF.
Quoting 241. ChrisHamburg:



The forecast for Morocco has high rain amounts in the next 120 hours, also for some local spots in south Europe:



Hi Chris, and yes, you are right. I've just realized that the worst is still to come for Morocco when looking at the big bunch of clouds still out in the Atlantic and inserted a GFS-map into the post above. This really looks very dangerous. Greeting to Hamburg!
Quoting 236. CybrTeddy:



Any clue if the PGFS will have the same issue once it takes over later on? I believe it's supposed to become operational by December.

Dunno, I haven't read up on what changes the PGFS will bring when it's upgraded in early January. I know one thing for sure though--there was no improvement with regards to winter weather forecasting. The PGFS handled the ongoing winter storm pitifully.
Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ghost storm on the GFS is probably just a byproduct of the upward MJO pulse forecast to move into the region in the extended range.
2nd week in Dec and the fun begins.
18z showed that Dec 2 storm as a rainstorm now but you know how models can change, If it is the case, looks like the 2 week pattern is the pattern this winter.
Quoting 247. Skyepony:


Look out.. it's cold on the backside of that. Just got to 49.8ºF.
Still warm here for now, but I anticipate wearing a sweater tomorrow. ... lol ...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nothing beats a fresh fall of snow its my fav when its just a couple of hrs old and it normally is so quiet afterwards then tomorrow after everyone walks and drives in it it gets all dirty and sloppy
Even though it's pretty well known I'm no fan of snow, that's one part of winter I do miss. I took Radar Dog on a walk about midnight on the day we had our three inch snowfall this January. It's normally pretty quiet in this podunk town at midnight anyway but I could hear my heart beating that night.
Quoting 246. sar2401:

Sounds fabulous, but I'm not even sure where could find a packet of mugwort or even a goose here. Ducks are not a problem, but I don't even remember seeing a goose for sale. The cooking procedure makes roasting a turkey sound easy by comparison. There's quite a bit of weather folklore surrounding St. Martins Day. In English folklore, a period of fine, calm weather, similar to an Indian summer, occurring in November, is attributed to St. Martin. Hungarian sayings are that, "If on St. Martin’s Day the goose walks on ice, it will be waddling in water on Christmas" and “If Martin arrives on a white horse snow), expect a mild winter. If Martin arrives on a brown horse (ground made muddy by rain) a harsh winter can be expected.” I found several instances of "Ice before Martinmas means mud at Christmas" and
"If the leaves do not fall by St. Martin's, expect a cold winter" as common in many parts of Europe. And, for Naga, there's even a sociology paper done about St. Martin's Day in Ireland, including even more weather folklore about St. Martin's Day, so St. Martin is not so off-topic after all. Isn't Google wonderful? :-)
I guess we come by our cold now = hot later theories honestly, then. It hasn't been all that cold, but the lingering front last week kept temps from soaring the way they have in other recent Novembers. Christmas Day is still rather early to forecast, but I would not be at all surprised to be sweating rather than shivering at Boxing Day Junkanoo this year.... lol ...


A little tidbit for a few of the TN folks..

THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE.
OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.
Quoting 248. barbamz:

This really looks very dangerous. Greeting to Hamburg!


Very worrying indeed. The last system came from the south and hit the mountains, now it will come from the north with a very potent Jet Stream. That would be a double whammy in such a short time period and especially the mountainous regions will be hit again, with the infrastructure already damaged.

And Greetings back to Mainz if I remember correctly. And nice blog about ICON, bought a Theoretical Meteorology textbook recently Link. The Math isn't for the faint of heart I have to say. But for a better understanding I think there is no way around it, even if I get my head only around 10% of the subject. And models are pure mathematics.
its snowing at my house
#257 Chris: I stand in awe :-) Some future support from your side is really very welcome! Good night now for good, it's late ...
Florida may have a chance to dry out a bit..

ndian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:09 PM PST on November 26, 2014
Clear
81.3 °F / 27.4 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 79 °F / 26 °C
Humidity: 11%
Dew Point: 22 °F / -6 °C
Wind: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the SSE
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph / 14.5 km/h
Pressure: 30.11 in / 1020 hPa (Steady)
Today was Low 51.8 and High 84.1
Hasn't been 85 since 11/9....

Rain Mon-Tues.... MAYBE
Quoting 248. barbamz:



Hi Chris, and yes, you are right. I've just realized that the worst is still to come for Morocco when looking at the big bunch of clouds still out in the Atlantic and inserted a GFS-map into the post above. This really looks very dangerous. Greeting to Hamburg!


The Polar Circulation is So Wrecked That Surface Winds Now Rotate Around Greenland

(Surface air flow encirclements of Greenland similar to conditions observed above were highly anomalous during the 20th Century. During the 21st Century, such a storm enhancing pattern is likely to become much more prevalent as an up-shot of human-driven polar warming. In the above shot, note the low spinning off Spain and heading toward Morocco off an anomalous and persistent dip in the Jet resulting from this abnormal pattern. More floods potentially on the way for that already hard-hit region. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Link
Quoting 246. sar2401:

Sounds fabulous, but I'm not even sure where could find a packet of mugwort or even a goose here. Ducks are not a problem, but I don't even remember seeing a goose for sale. The cooking procedure makes roasting a turkey sound easy by comparison. There's quite a bit of weather folklore surrounding St. Martins Day. In English folklore, a period of fine, calm weather, similar to an Indian summer, occurring in November, is attributed to St. Martin. Hungarian sayings are that, "If on St. Martin’s Day the goose walks on ice, it will be waddling in water on Christmas" and “If Martin arrives on a white horse snow), expect a mild winter. If Martin arrives on a brown horse (ground made muddy by rain) a harsh winter can be expected.” I found several instances of "Ice before Martinmas means mud at Christmas" and
"If the leaves do not fall by St. Martin's, expect a cold winter" as common in many parts of Europe. And, for Naga, there's even a href="http://www.academia.edu/4204675

/Martinmas_Tradition_in_South-West_County_Clare_A _Case_Study" target="_blank" onclick="s_objectID="http://www.academia.edu/ 4204675/Martinmas_Tradition_in_South-West_County_C lare_A_Case_Study_1";return this.s_oc?this.s_oc(e):true" rel="nofollow">a sociology paper done about St. Martin's Day in Ireland, including even more weather folklore about St. Martin's Day, so St. Martin is not so off-topic after all. Isn't Google wonderful? :-)



I've posted the northeast saying before. "If Ice in November will bear a duck. There'll be nothing thereafter but slush and muck"

We're not turkey people either preferring ducks or goose.
This south / north jet stream pattern is nearly 3 months old. It has trashed France, Italy, Greece and points East.
Now it has moved even further south into Africa.

The jet stream in this part of world dives very deep to south , and goes all the way to the pole.

If one believes this normal, you are not a grape framer near Montpiller, France. Because their world has been wrecked.

The Polar Circulation is So Wrecked That Surface Winds Now Rotate Around Greenland


(Surface air flow encirclements of Greenland similar to conditions observed above were highly anomalous during the 20th Century. During the 21st Century, such a storm enhancing pattern is likely to become much more prevalent as an up-shot of human-driven polar warming. In the above shot, note the low spinning off Spain and heading toward Morocco off an anomalous and persistent dip in the Jet resulting from this abnormal pattern. More floods potentially on the way for that already hard-hit region. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)


Link
Montpiller, France has been growing grapes long before the Romans. What happened to them this fall is important.

Compere it to the Santa Calra
After fire and floods, restoring a sacred New Mexico canyon and a way of life

Link
What I find really stupid Is our thinking that all these events Are one off events.
Very quiet in here, about 20 posts in 4 hours. Everyone must have left town..
Quoting 271. PedleyCA:

Very quiet in here, about 20 posts in 4 hours. Everyone must have left town..

Hi, Ped. Just hanging around after enjoying an early feast with the family; we should have a pretty nice day tomorrow and Friday, followed by a week of slush and rain.
Link
A pattern shift is expected as we enter early December, with above-average heights in the East and below-average heights in the West. This should correlate to warmer temperatures in the East and cooler temperatures in the West; in addition, with a cut-off low expected to track towards California, there should be plenty of beneficial rainfall there.

Don't expect this pattern to last though.

Quoting 271. PedleyCA:

Very quiet in here, about 20 posts in 4 hours. Everyone must have left town..


Hey, Peds. I'm exhausted. I've been watching Mrs. Grothar cooking all day. I guess a lot of people are cooking their favorite dishes.
Quoting 275. Grothar:



Hey, Peds. I'm exhausted. I've been watching Mrs. Grothar cooking all day. I guess a lot of people are cooking their favorite dishes.


Your probably tired from trying to sneak to many snacks....
Quoting 275. Grothar:



Hey, Peds. I'm exhausted. I've been watching Mrs. Grothar cooking all day. I guess a lot of people are cooking their favorite dishes.



I just hope that my daughter is preparing my favorite dish. That would be the dish with the food piled on high and a suggestion for seconds. She told me that all I needed to bring is an appetite. I am way ahead of her on that one! Life can be good!
Quoting 276. PedleyCA:



Your probably tired from trying to sneak to many snacks....


Well, one of the apple pies mysteriously disappeared.
Quoting 276. PedleyCA:



Your probably tired from trying to sneak to many snacks....


I hear that this will not tire him. He is a man of amazing stamina when it comes to such things. :) I am in training to try to keep up. I can handle the pace, but the distance gets to me. I may have to sit closer to the kitchen.
Quoting 277. Some1Has2BtheRookie:




I just hope that my daughter is preparing my favorite dish. That would be the dish with the food piled on high and a suggestion for seconds. She told me that all I needed to bring is an appetite. I am way ahead of her on that one! Life can be good!


Ha. I can't overdo anymore. It should be nice and cool down here tomorrow.
21W Queenie
282. vis0

Quoting 185. CycloneOz:

Spectacular Satellite Image!



What I like most about this picture is that there is not a thing made by humans that can be seen in the picture.

I can't see New Orleans. That's a pretty big city, too.
NOT PICKING SIDES just a thinkers reply to the comment  "there is not a thing made by humans that can be seen in the picture."  Now if this where a true colour image really picking up ocean details i would ask,
¿Would the deterioration of the coral or loss of "healthy" colours/shrinkage be considered made by humans?  OTHERWISE i saw this time period animated and noticed how close the 2  ~LOWS where and in between, east Of Illinois those (clouds) where moving westward. Also lots of Gravity-wave clouds in the last 5 days, though not seen in this imge. Thanks for posting the image CycloneOz.
97S

Quoting 281. Skyepony:

21W Queenie



Where is the floater on it?
Quoting 280. Grothar:



Ha. I can't overdo anymore. It should be nice and cool down here tomorrow.


Well, that is good news for me. The training has been enjoyable, but I have already gained 10 pounds. I do not know how much more training I can endure before I require a new wardrobe.

The weather is suppose to excellent here for the next few days. But we all know how the weathermen lie. :)
Quoting 284. Grothar:



Where is the floater on it?


On top of the water?
The Terra pass a little bit ago of Queenie was different.

Quoting 284. Grothar:



Where is the floater on it?

It's a bit anemic on Rainbow..

21W Here's models for it.
Quoting 286. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



On top of the water?


I see old age hasn't lessened your wit. Big day tomorrow so everyone have a Happy Thanksgiving


From all of us to all of you.


1200 PM SNOW MOUNT ROGERS SUMMIT 36.66N 81.55W
11/26/2014 E8.0 INCH GRAYSON VA PARK SERVICE

MASSIE GAP 4400 FEET ELEVATION



0958 AM SNOW BEECH MOUNTAIN 36.19N 81.87W
11/26/2014 E6.0 INCH AVERY NC BROADCAST MEDIA

ESTIMATED 6 INCHES ON BEECH MTN



1230 AM SNOW 6 N BESSEMER 46.57N 90.05W
11/27/2014 M14.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI PUBLIC

SNOWFALL THUS FAR SINCE LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MEASURED AT THE BLACK RIVER LODGE.


0406 PM SNOW 1 WNW MOUNTAIN LAKE PARK39.41N 79.40W
11/26/2014 M7.4 INCH GARRETT MD PUBLIC

STORM ENDING
REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. SNOW DURATION 13
HOURS.
Happy Thanksgiving everybody! :)
293. vis0

Quoting 254. sar2401:

Even though it's pretty well known I'm no fan of snow, that's one part of winter I do miss. I took Radar Dog on a walk about midnight on the day we had our three inch snowfall this January. It's normally pretty quiet in this podunk town at midnight anyway but I could hear my heart beating that night.
Are you sure that (able to hear ♥) wasn't that you took Radars medication instead? ... ó ò  to  :-Þ
(in case characters went to code)
It's seriously slow tonight. So I'll share some Seattle weather.

First the floods: Excerpt from Hydrology discussion

THIS MEANS THE 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES MAY REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE N CASCADES. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AT HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING IS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN THE OLYMPICS ...THE NOOKSACK AND SKAGIT RIVERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE STILLAGUAMISH ...SNOQUALMIE...AND TOLT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS.


Second, the jet stream.

As many other areas of the world are being affected by the wavier jet stream, so is the PCNW. This weekend, we will have meridional flow behind a cold front. This pushes very cold Canadian air through the Fraser River Valley right into the Puget Sound, and Seattle. As the air will arrive on the tail end of a precipitation event, it is possible I may see snow on Saturday. I am not amused...

Excerpt from Seattle Forecast discussion:

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THANKSGIVING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL. AN INTERESTING FORECAST CONUNDRUM ARISES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DIPPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT...JUST AT THE TAIL END OF PRECIP EVENT. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THINGS MAY LINE UP JUST ENOUGH FOR MIXED LOWLAND PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

295. vis0

Quoting 272. Grothar:


last week was another fast jetstream / jetstreak...

If one follows those lonely clouds under New Mexico at the first frame watch as they turn north and go over wash DC, even a smaller puff of clouds really "boots" (speeds up suddenly) starting @1315UTC near were the bent yellow (was at the start) that warns people of clown to the west of red picket fence...wash115?)     D&T:: 201411-17;2115 till -19;0315UTC (might be off by 1 hour)
http://youtu.be/7OpDfe4uRcU (unlisted) (actual dimension:: 800x528 (3:2)

296. vis0
repeat removed by vis0
Quoting Grothar:


Well, one of the apple pies mysteriously disappeared.
LOL. You too, huh? The six maple doughnuts I bought yesterday has mysteriously been reduced to a mere two. I've been cleaning the house all day while my fiance cooks for 14, all arriving bright and early today. I'm too tired to sleep, something I will regret about 2:00 this afternoon. I offered to help with the cooking but she muttered something about food poisoning and told me to keep cleaning. :-)
Quoting vis0:

last week was another fast jetstream / jetstreak...

If one follows those lonely clouds under New Mexico at the first frame watch as they turn north and go over wash DC, even a smaller puff of clouds really "boots" (speeds up suddenly) starting @1315UTC near were the bent yellow (was at the start) that warns people of clown to the west of red picket fence...wash115?)     D&T:: 201411-17;2115 till -19;0315UTC (might be off by 1 hour)
http://youtu.be/7OpDfe4uRcU (unlisted) (actual dimension:: 800x528 (3:2)

I noticed that little batch of clouds in New Mexico yesterday but didn't follow them. Interesting to see them travel so far NE is such a short period of time. It's almost like the jet stream is a real jet. :-)
Quoting vis0:

Are you sure that (able to hear ♥) wasn't that you took Radars medication instead? ... ó ò  to  :-Þ
(in case characters went to code)
No, LOL, I didn't. If I had, I probably would have ended up asleep on the dog bed.
Quoting Seattleite:
It's seriously slow tonight. So I'll share some Seattle weather.

First the floods: Excerpt from Hydrology discussion

THIS MEANS THE 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES MAY REACH 4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE N CASCADES. THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY DRIVE SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AT HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING IS THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN THE OLYMPICS ...THE NOOKSACK AND SKAGIT RIVERS IN THE NORTH...AND THE STILLAGUAMISH ...SNOQUALMIE...AND TOLT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS.


Second, the jet stream.

As many other areas of the world are being affected by the wavier jet stream, so is the PCNW. This weekend, we will have meridional flow behind a cold front. This pushes very cold Canadian air through the Fraser River Valley right into the Puget Sound, and Seattle. As the air will arrive on the tail end of a precipitation event, it is possible I may see snow on Saturday. I am not amused...

Excerpt from Seattle Forecast discussion:

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THANKSGIVING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COOL. AN INTERESTING FORECAST CONUNDRUM ARISES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DIPPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT...JUST AT THE TAIL END OF PRECIP EVENT. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THINGS MAY LINE UP JUST ENOUGH FOR MIXED LOWLAND PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWLAND SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

I spent November and December of 2003 in Seattle while my late wife underwent cancer treatment at The Hutch. It's a great hospital, and Seattleites impressed me as really friendly people, especially for a big city. However, all i could do was pray that we didn't get snow or worse, ice, in Seattle then. We came close twice but lucked out both times. I worked in San Francisco, so it's not like I wasn't used to hills, but the thought of ice and snow in Seattle gave me chronic indigestion. I know snow isn't uncommon there, but I have no clue how you'd drive around town when it happened. Maybe the answer was, you didn't. :-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A pattern shift is expected as we enter early December, with above-average heights in the East and below-average heights in the West. This should correlate to warmer temperatures in the East and cooler temperatures in the West; in addition, with a cut-off low expected to track towards California, there should be plenty of beneficial rainfall there.

Don't expect this pattern to last though.

Thank goodness. Maybe California can get enough rain without too many floods and Florida can dry out before they get any more floods. Of course, that same pattern means I'm once again left high and dry. Maybe it will snow for Christmas! :-)
Quoting oldnewmex:

Hi, Ped. Just hanging around after enjoying an early feast with the family; we should have a pretty nice day tomorrow and Friday, followed by a week of slush and rain.
Link
Those temperatures look right on the edge between snow and rain up there in Truckee. A lot of snow there just means everyone is happy for the ski resorts and the jobs in town and the resorts. Rain, OTOH, will not make very many people up there happy, so I hope it's snow. Hopefully it won't be a repeat of...I don't remember now, but I think it was 2003, when it snowed every weekend, so the skiers couldn't make it up the hill. The ski resorts weren't too happy then.
Quoting 270. ColoradoBob1:

What I find really stupid Is our thinking that all these events Are one off events.

Thursday Morning 11 am.
Lashing down with rain here in southern Spain here today and in the plans for the next 5 days as well, localised flooding on the cards for some areas.
I'll keep everybody informed.
Morocco will be getting hit badly as well and a lot of their buildings in some areas dissolve in prolonged heavy rains.

This article which Colorado Bob put up is interesting and of course ominus:-

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/11/26/ something-our-weather-models-arent-used-to-surface -winds-now-encircle-greenland/

Link
304. VR46L
Quoting 246. sar2401:

Sounds fabulous, but I'm not even sure where could find a packet of mugwort or even a goose here. Ducks are not a problem, but I don't even remember seeing a goose for sale. The cooking procedure makes roasting a turkey sound easy by comparison. There's quite a bit of weather folklore surrounding St. Martins Day. In English folklore, a period of fine, calm weather, similar to an Indian summer, occurring in November, is attributed to St. Martin. Hungarian sayings are that, "If on St. Martin’s Day the goose walks on ice, it will be waddling in water on Christmas" and “If Martin arrives on a white horse snow), expect a mild winter. If Martin arrives on a brown horse (ground made muddy by rain) a harsh winter can be expected.” I found several instances of "Ice before Martinmas means mud at Christmas" and
"If the leaves do not fall by St. Martin's, expect a cold winter" as common in many parts of Europe. And, for Naga, there's even a sociology paper done about St. Martin's Day in Ireland, including even more weather folklore about St. Martin's Day, so St. Martin is not so off-topic after all. Isn't Google wonderful? :-)


You learn somehing new everyday ... I never heard that !

i knew about St Swithin's day folklore but not that .
Good morning/good Thanksgiving day hello with something very cold and cool, lol ...



Passengers rally to push 'frozen' plane in Siberia
BBC, 27 November 2014 Last updated at 09:35 GMT
Passengers due to take a flight in Siberia had to get out and push the aircraft after its brake pads froze solid.
The plane was trying to take off from the Russian town of Igarka, but was unable to move after the temperature fell to -52C [=-61,6F], the RIA Novosti news agency reports. ....

Parched Sao Paulo drenched by flooding rain
BBC weather video, 26 November 2014 Last updated at 17:59
Parts of Brazil have been gripped by intense drought described as the worst in eighty years and despite the flooding, rain reservoir levels remain critical.
Peter Gibbs has the very latest and looks at the prospects for the weather on BBC World News.



Let It Rain: The Summer rain season arrived in Brazil. (Nov 26)
Some snowfall totals from ME/NH. Lewiston, ME the winner in the area we used to live (used to work there). Higher elevations in NH always seem to wring out more.

One note, this was probably very wet snow in Lewiston.

Sunday River Ski Resort looks to have gotten a good dump for the long weekend. Freshies!


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 25 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to Highway departments...cooperative observers...Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/gray

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments snowfall of /inches/ measurement

Maine

...Androscoggin County... Lewiston 15.0 533 am 11/27 1 SW North Turner 13.3 600 am 11/27 2 E Lewiston 10.0 1046 PM 11/26 Durham 9.0 1246 am 11/27 1 E Livermore Falls 8.0 832 PM 11/26 2 N Turner 6.5 704 PM 11/26 4 S Turner 5.0 444 PM 11/26 Auburn T 430 PM 11/26

...Cumberland County... Bridgton 12.0 1115 PM 11/26 3 E Standish 11.5 408 am 11/27 2 ESE Sebago 11.0 600 am 11/27 1 SSE Gorham 10.1 500 am 11/27 1 SSE North Sebago 10.0 1223 am 11/27 Portland - N Deering 8.5 930 PM 11/26 2 SW Casco 8.5 821 PM 11/26 gray NWS office 8.2 1222 am 11/27 Brunswick 7.5 1114 PM 11/26 Portland jetport 7.4 1215 am 11/27 3 SSE Gorham 7.1 830 PM 11/26 Cape Elizabeth 5.5 825 PM 11/26 Gorham 5.2 714 PM 11/26

...Kennebec County... Randolph 2.5 452 PM 11/26

...Knox County... 1 SSW Camden 5.2 1012 PM 11/26 hope 4.0 605 PM 11/26 Rockland 2.0 1129 PM 11/26

...Lincoln County... 3 SSW South Bristol 3.0 616 am 11/27

...Oxford County... ENE Paris 12.0 302 am 11/27 Norway 11.0 415 am 11/27 Hartford 11.0 1148 PM 11/26 Hebron 10.5 1050 PM 11/26 4 WSW Turner 9.5 840 PM 11/26 Andover 6.0 426 am 11/27

...Sagadahoc County... 2 ENE Brunswick 8.5 1133 PM 11/26

...Somerset County... Madison 12.0 200 am 11/27

...York County... 2 N Kittery Point 11.5 549 am 11/27 Hollis 11.3 633 am 11/27 1 SSW Cornish 8.3 744 PM 11/26 Saco 8.1 1047 PM 11/26 2 ESE Vaughan Woods 7.5 815 PM 11/26 sleet mixing 34f 5 NW Hollis 7.5 638 PM 11/26 2 NNW Saco 5.2 600 PM 11/26 2 NE Kennebunk 5.0 1056 PM 11/26 2 NNW Kennebunk 3.5 320 PM 11/26

New Hampshire

...Belknap County... Laconia 16.5 508 am 11/27 1.45 water 3 SSW Meredith 10.7 610 am 11/27 Meredith 10.7 613 am 11/27 Tilton 8.5 803 PM 11/26

...Carroll County... 1 se East Wakefield 13.5 625 am 11/27 Wolfeboro Bay 11.0 1205 am 11/27 3 se North Sandwich 9.5 134 am 11/27 2 N Jackson 9.0 924 PM 11/26 Moultonborough 8.0 427 am 11/27 4 ESE Center Harbor 6.7 1231 am 11/27 North Conway 6.5 631 PM 11/26 Tamworth 6.0 530 PM 11/26 1 N Madison 5.5 337 PM 11/26

...Coos County... Pinkham Notch 13.0 455 am 11/27 1 N Lancaster 9.1 600 am 11/27 1 NW Randolph 8.3 1058 PM 11/26 Lancaster 3.0 334 PM 11/26

...Grafton County... 1 NNW Bristol 9.8 1008 PM 11/26 Rumney 9.5 1224 am 11/27 Orford 8.1 1147 PM 11/26

...Merrimack County... Concord ASOS 10.3 1201 am 11/27 Bow 10.0 950 PM 11/26 3 SSW Chichester 9.5 345 am 11/27 Concord 9.5 1135 PM 11/26 2 SSE Penacook 8.0 511 am 11/27 Boscawen 4.5 553 PM 11/26 Epsom 3.0 353 PM 11/26

...Rockingham County... 1 NNE Deerfield 10.0 625 am 11/27 Londonderry 6.6 1001 PM 11/26 3 WSW West Hampstead 5.0 552 PM 11/26 1 WNW Seabrook 4.6 908 PM 11/26 1 NNW Hampton 4.0 626 am 11/27

...Strafford County... 2 SSE Strafford 8.5 704 PM 11/26

...Sullivan County... Croydon 13.5 527 am 11/27 1 ESE Washington 9.8 736 PM 11/26 4 N Sunapee 9.1 935 PM 11/26 2 N Lempster 8.0 623 PM 11/26
Quoting 303. PlazaRed:


Thursday Morning 11 am.
Lashing down with rain here in southern Spain here today and in the plans for the next 5 days as well, localised flooding on the cards for some areas.
I'll keep everybody informed.
Morocco will be getting hit badly as well and a lot of their buildings in some areas dissolve in prolonged heavy rains.



Thank you and good luck, Plaza! And keep the infos flowing (I won't be able to post much until Sunday).




Tornado in Torremolinos/Malaga/Spain this morning.
Tons of sun in the forecast for Fort Myers

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving day to all.

Levi's site is back with a new server.

Link
Traveling to visit family and friends has been a major hassle across much of the East Coast as Winter Storm Cato is now winding down, but still dumping snow across northern New England.
As many as 20 million people were under winter storm warnings in the Northeast on Wednesday afternoon as travelers tried to navigate slushy roads and air travel delays.
The highest snow totals so far have been in Hardy and Morgan Counties in West Virginia where 20" was reported. Other notable snow totals include places like Binghamton, New York, where 10" fell. 10" also accumulated in Falls Township, Pennsylvania (just northwest of Scranton). Fairfield, New York saw a foot of snow, and Peru, Massachusetts got 13.5".
Thanksgiving Day: The last of the snow will wind down in the morning over parts of Maine. In the wake of the storm, highs will be below average across the Northeast, but they should climb far enough above freezing to allow rapid improvement in road conditions.

A weak clipper-type system following close behind Winter Storm Cato will add a bit of light snow to some of the areas in the Appalachians that received heavy snowfall Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Traveling to visit family and friends has been a major hassle across much of the East Coast as Winter Storm Cato is now winding down, but still dumping snow across northern New England.
As many as 20 million people were under winter storm warnings in the Northeast on Wednesday afternoon as travelers tried to navigate slushy roads and air travel delays.
The highest snow totals so far have been in Hardy and Morgan Counties in West Virginia where 20" was reported. Other notable snow totals include places like Binghamton, New York, where 10" fell. 10" also accumulated in Falls Township, Pennsylvania (just northwest of Scranton). Fairfield, New York saw a foot of snow, and Peru, Massachusetts got 13.5".


I wondering what the official snowfall totals were for the big cities
(Washington DC up I95 to New York to Boston). I know it couldn't have been much.

I think it could have been much worse had the major cities/airports been snowed in.

But of course, it could have been a lot better had it been in the 70s with bright sunshine like the weather was on Monday along the East Coast.

The timing of the bad weather was as if someone had planned it.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 16 for dinner at my home today! WOOT WOOT!
It's not looking good now either... But, it is still possible for this to become at least a moderate TS or a category 1 typhoon. However, its all dependent what happens in the short term.

Post on TD 21W and other basins

Quoting 288. Skyepony:


It's a bit anemic on Rainbow..

21W Here's models for it.

Happy Thanksgiving to all...
Very rainy in the Costa Rica mountains last night -- total 3 inches. There may be some landslides and closed roads as a result. But the greenery is lush!
Hey guys sorry I haven't been posting but I have indeed been lurking and watching

Quoting Climate175:
TS in Dec XD, that would be a sight. NHC gonna be on it!


Not really we've seen Dec TS before but it has Been a good while since we have had one
Quoting 315. PensacolaDoug:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 16 for dinner at my home today! WOOT WOOT!


You too, Doug. Only three at my house, but always a celebration. Happy Thanksgiving. :)
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!! Have a fantastic day!!
Quoting barbamz:
Good morning/good Thanksgiving day hello with something very cold and cool, lol ...



Passengers rally to push 'frozen' plane in Siberia
BBC, 27 November 2014 Last updated at 09:35 GMT
Passengers due to take a flight in Siberia had to get out and push the aircraft after its brake pads froze solid.
The plane was trying to take off from the Russian town of Igarka, but was unable to move after the temperature fell to -52C [=-61,6F], the RIA Novosti news agency reports. ....

Good, day, Barb, and Happy Thanksgiving to all our American friends.

That's pretty amazing to think passengers can get out and push an airliner to free up the brakes. That may be one reason why Russian civil aircraft operations are the most dangerous in the developed world also. The airplane is a TU-134A built in 1972 and flown by UT Air Express, complete with bombardier's transparent nose. Very few are left in service because they developed habit of crashing starting in the early part of this century. They are supposedly going to be completely withdrawn from all Russian service by the end of this year. I'd be nervous flying a well built and maintained 42 year old aircraft in a harsh climate like Siberia let alone one I had to help push to get moving again. :-)

Quoting VR46L:


You learn somehing new everyday ... I never heard that !

i knew about St Swithin's day folklore but not that .
New one on me too. Without Google, I'd have never known anything about St. Martin's day. There are lots of saint's days associated with weather all over the world. It would be interesting to see a complete list of them.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys sorry I haven't been posting but I have indeed been lurking and watching



Not really we've seen Dec TS before but it has Been a good while since we have had one
Good morning, WKC. I knew the prospect of a tropical storm would bring you out of hiding again. :-) It hasn't even been that long since we've had one though. Remember the "Unnamed Subtropical Storm" from last season that was discovered on reanalysis? A fitting end to a crummy hurricane season.
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone..May you and yours have a safe holiday weekend....

Interesting little low at the end of the latest GFS...

Wishing everybody a blessed and Happy Thanksgiving!
MJO moving in end of next week and into the second week of Dec and with the -NAO, the jamming will begin!
Quoting sar2401:
Good morning, WKC. I knew the prospect of a tropical storm would bring you out of hiding again. :-) It hasn't even been that long since we've had one though. Remember the "Unnamed Subtropical Storm" from last season that was discovered on reanalysis? A fitting end to a crummy hurricane season.


Technically I was not in hiding I was here the whole time but I've just been really busy to be on here typing away

And I knew if had started back on here you would be the first to interact with me

Anyway yeah I forgot about that sub tropic storm

But anyway this one may not be sub tropical rather tropical and NHC may just actually have advisory for it
Based on the GFS, there really won't be much winter weather across the U.S. in the next two weeks. That can quickly change, of course.

The biggest weather news in the U.S. will most likely be the rain in California next week.



no more snow for the northeast
Happy Thanksgiving!
Not so fast on El Nino coming very soon as all ENSO areas are cooling at this time if what the graphics show are right.Keep in mind that Levi's site has a new server and maybe there may be some bugs so we may have to wait and see as time goes by how things go.

Nino 1+2:



Nino 3:



Nino 3.4:



Nino 4:


Happy Thanksgiving from SoCal
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 6:53 AM PST on November 27, 2014
Clear
55 °F / 13 °C
Clear
Humidity: 31%
Dew Point: 25 °F / -4 °C
Wind: 6 mph / 9 km/h / 2.6 m/s from the NE
Pressure: 30.11 in / 1020 hPa (Rising)
55.7F here, both of my nearby PWS are down.
Quoting 333. Tropicsweatherpr:

Not so fast on El Nino coming very soon as all ENSO areas are cooling at this time if what the graphics show are right.Keep in mind that Levi's site has a new server and maybe there may be some bugs so we may have to wait and see as time goes by how things go.

Nino 1+2:



Nino 3:



Nino 3.4:



Nino 4:




It's just a glitch.
336. jpsb
Quoting 268. ColoradoBob1:

Montpiller, France has been growing grapes long before the Romans. What happened to them this fall is important.

Compere it to the Santa Calra



You might want to fact check that claim about the Romans, wine and Montpiller

from Wiki
"In the Early Middle Ages, the nearby episcopal town of Maguelone was the major settlement in the area, but raids by pirates encouraged settlement a little further inland. Montpellier, first mentioned in a document of 985, was founded under a local feudal dynasty, the Guilhem, who combined two hamlets and built a castle and walls around the united settlement."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montpellier

also from wiki

"Under Roman rule, in the century and a half BC, the majority of the wine consumed in the area was required by law to be Italian in origin"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_French_wi ne



Quoting 335. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's just a glitch.


The data are accurate. The visual "jump" is because there are 3 days of data missing, and then the data suddenly resumes on November 27th.
Quoting 337. Levi32:



The data are accurate. The visual "jump" is because there are 3 days of data missing, and then the data suddenly resumes on November 27th.


I jus hate when dat happens,'
Quoting 337. Levi32:



The data are accurate. The visual "jump" is because there are 3 days of data missing, and then the data suddenly resumes on November 27th.


The 7 day change graphic confirms the cooling data. Good to see my favorite site rolling back.

Climate let's say Snowbro party!.Jamming was last winter!.

I'm going over a friends house for Thanksgiving this year which means I didn't have to be cooking all night long.I'm bringing the mash potatoes.Real easy.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! It's a white Thanksgiving for me. About an inch and a half of heavy, wet sleet/snow outside. Inland areas got much higher amounts.
Quoting 274. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A pattern shift is expected as we enter early December, with above-average heights in the East and below-average heights in the West. This should correlate to warmer temperatures in the East and cooler temperatures in the West; in addition, with a cut-off low expected to track towards California, there should be plenty of beneficial rainfall there.

Don't expect this pattern to last though.



Hmmm, that doesn't look conducive for me to get my Gulf Coast winter storm.
Quoting 341. washingtonian115:

Climate let's say Snowbro party!.Jamming was last winter!.

I'm going over a friends house for Thanksgiving this year which means I didn't have to be cooking all night long.I'm bringing the mash potatoes.Real easy.
But i love the term jamming, can we use jamming and snowbro party?
I think I will use both, and think of some more party words.
Quoting 323. sar2401:

New one on me too. Without Google, I'd have never known anything about St. Martin's day. There are lots of saint's days associated with weather all over the world. It would be interesting to see a complete list of them.


Hehe, Sar, German wiki provides a list with hundreds of "Farmer's (weather) rules" (Bauernregeln), associated with the memorial days of the saints. Google Translator might be overwhelmed with the translation of this sort of language though, lol. Moreover there are some saints who especially are in charge to provide conducive weather and to protect from severe weather; Barb(ara) is one of them, lol. Here a short German list, unfortunately without an English equivalent. Happy googling! See you sometime next year when you're done :-)
Quoting 343. opal92nwf:


Hmmm, that doesn't look conducive for me to get my Gulf Coast winter storm.

Nope, not for now. :)

The first half of December looks above-average to in some locations well-above average. However, by the second half of the month, I expect the pattern to flip back to what we've seen for the past month (although not to such an extreme degree) as the MJO enters the West Hemisphere. Something that will need to be watched out for--Michael Ventrice pointed this out on Twitter--is that model guidance is cluing in on a West Pacific tropical cyclone in the extended range. If that were to pan out and the system recurved into the mid-latitudes, that would solidify the idea of a cold end to December. We shall see.

Brief periods of warmth in an overall frigid winter (what I'm predicting) are not unusual though.
We will be having a Jubilee!
Quoting 341. washingtonian115:

Climate let's say Snowbro party!.Jamming was last winter!.

I'm going over a friends house for Thanksgiving this year which means I didn't have to be cooking all night long.I'm bringing the mash potatoes.Real easy.
Am I invited?
Quoting 349. Tornado6042008X:

Am I invited?
Yes! Basically everybody who partied last winter.
Be safe. Don't mash and drive.

Quoting 341. washingtonian115:

Climate let's say Snowbro party!.Jamming was last winter!.

I'm going over a friends house for Thanksgiving this year which means I didn't have to be cooking all night long.I'm bringing the mash potatoes.Real easy.
Happy Thanksgiving all. Safe travels.
Some light snow coming down at the Thanksgiving Parade in NYC.
Insane storm "down under" in Brisbane earlier today!







Many more incredible videos available on youtube.


Army called in after southeast Queensland smashed by freak storms
1:00am November 28, 2014
The army has been called in to help mop up after Brisbane was smashed by an extreme hail storm described by insurers as a catastrophic event.
Large hailstones catapulted by destructive winds up to 141km/h slammed into high rise buildings and vehicles in the CBD and surrounding suburbs leaving a trail of destruction. ...

Whole article with many photos and more videos see link above.

One of many timelapses of the Brisbane storm.

BTW, for already several days now I can only embed youtubes into this blog after decoderizing the new code into the old one by using Neapolitan's helpful decoderizer. Many thanks to him for this device.
I'm not even sure it would be safe to drive down a road with snow that deep.
If it caved in, you would be stuck or worse.
358. jpsb
"This right here is a comet. We just landed a probe on one of those bad boys. Here’s what one looks like compared with Los Angeles:"




link
Quoting 347. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nope, not for now. :)

The first half of December looks above-average to in some locations well-above average. However, by the second half of the month, I expect the pattern to flip back to what we've seen for the past month (although not to such an extreme degree) as the MJO enters the West Hemisphere. Something that will need to be watched out for--Michael Ventrice pointed this out on Twitter--is that model guidance is cluing in on a West Pacific tropical cyclone in the extended range. If that were to pan out and the system recurved into the mid-latitudes, that would solidify the idea of a cold end to December. We shall see.

Brief periods of warmth in an overall frigid winter (what I'm predicting) are not unusual though.

January will be interesting. From what I remember last winter we had a huge cold blast (got to 17 deg) in early January, right before that, though, it had been pretty uneventful.
Good morning all, and happy thanksgiving!
Very light snow in Carbondale, surprised its not being picked up on Radar, and it is starting to accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces (mostly elevated)
All the snow from yesterday melted overnight...wunder how that happened.
Quoting 349. Tornado6042008X:

Am I invited?
Yeah.Just bring the pumpkin pie.
Quoting 351. HaoleboySurfEC:

Be safe. Don't mash and drive.


Lol.Thanks!The game comes on today so people will be huddled around the T.V.
Deleted
Story was from Nov. 20th.
#355

Sadly, we're seeing more evidence from down under of more Water Vapor, combined with higher temps, spawning mo chaos.

The trend is up and will remains up...as we slow bake upward within the warming Atmosphere from CO2 Rise by burning Fossil Fuels en masse Globally 24/7/365.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

Quoting 361. washingtonian115:

Yeah.Just bring the pumpkin pie. Lol.Thanks!The game comes on today so people will be huddled around the T.V.


And afterwards all the drunks on the road... Ughhh... If you are going to drink, please don't drive. Just pass out on the living room floor in front of the TV.

Not a lot of snow on the ground, but it is in the teens here... And "freezing fog" is the title of the day.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone - It's still morning here and dark out. But the turkey is in the oven cooking away...
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone !!

light snow falling this morning here in central Illinois .. very light .. not enough to cover the ground yet !!
Quoting 366. whitewabit:

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone !!

light snow falling this morning here in central Illinois .. very light .. not enough to cover the ground yet !!


You got more than we do in Anchorage Alaska though.
Quoting 367. Dakster:



You got more than we do in Anchorage Alaska though.


You won't be able to say that by the end of winter .. I lived in Kenia and know what the winters up there can be like !!
Quoting 365. Dakster:



And afterwards all the drunks on the road... Ughhh... If you are going to drink, please don't drive. Just pass out on the living room floor in front of the TV.

Not a lot of snow on the ground, but it is in the teens here... And "freezing fog" is the title of the day.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone - It's still morning here and dark out. But the turkey is in the oven cooking away...
Well if it makes you feel better we didn't get a whole lot of sow and the snow that did stick is now gone.I will not be drinking (even though a margarita sounds nice) So I'll likely be the DD.
Happy thanksgiving to one and all........everything is ready for the oven or the table.......a perfect clear blue sky and temps in thehigh 60's....I hope everyone has a great day.....
Quoting 367. Dakster:



You got more than we do in Anchorage Alaska though.


what base are you at ??
Possible tropical development next week in the Atlantic. If you see Taz, tell him I saw it first.

Everyone have a great Holiday, and remember, we all have something for which to be thankful.

Quoting 371. whitewabit:



what base are you at ??


Wife works on JBER. I actually live up a mountain in ER.
On today's menu at my house: ham, turkey, green been casserole, cornbread, pinto beans, deviled eggs, Hawaiian rolls, stuffing, mashed potatoes, macaroni salad, butterfinger pie, pistachio pudding, and chocolate chip cookie dessert.

My goal: to attempt to remain below 130lbs through the day.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Quoting 373. Dakster:



Wife works on JBER. I actually live up a mountain in ER.


did some cold weather training there at JBER .. your at elevation and still no snow ??
Yup, it is chilly up there Dakster, Happy Thanksgiving
gonna be 85 here today, or so they say... Sun is out at least.

Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 9:09 AM AKST on November 27, 2014
Overcast
14.7 °F / -9.6 °C
Windchill: 15 °F / -10 °C
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 12 °F / -11 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 30.23 in / 1024 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 6.0 miles / 9.7 kilometers

Guess this makes you cool calm and collected.
Quoting 343. opal92nwf:


Hmmm, that doesn't look conducive for me to get my Gulf Coast winter storm.


Still early in da season. I'm watching too. And waiting. And hoping.
I'm goofy that way.
Mother Nature will make you pay.

Quoting 367. Dakster:



You got more than we do in Anchorage Alaska though.
380. JRRP
What the.... ?
Good afternoon

Beautiful 83, feeling like 86, with a few clouds around.

One of the traditions we participate in every T'day is going to a huge dinner at our local bar. Each person walking in with a dish pays $5.00 and those without a dish pay $25.00. A charity is chosen and all proceeds donated to it. This year the charity chosen is the Cancer Society. Looking forward to a great evening with good friends and great food!

Just wanted to wish all of you and yours a safe and happy Thanksgiving Day.

Lindy
Quoting 375. whitewabit:



did some cold weather training there at JBER .. your at elevation and still no snow ??


Yeah and the mountain tops around here that are not year around covered in snow are bare too...

We had a LIGHT dusting last night/this morning. But I can still see green grass... If that helps.
Quoting 376. PedleyCA:

Yup, it is chilly up there Dakster, Happy Thanksgiving
gonna be 85 here today, or so they say... Sun is out at least.

Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 9:09 AM AKST on November 27, 2014
Overcast
14.7 °F / -9.6 °C
Windchill: 15 °F / -10 °C
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 12 °F / -11 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 30.23 in / 1024 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 6.0 miles / 9.7 kilometers

Guess this makes you cool calm and collected.


What sun? I don't see the sun... I see it is very overcast out... I think pilots call this flat light. I know there is a big mountain behind me but I can't see it.

It got the temp and the wind right.
Yesterday's U.S. Extremes
High Temp. Low Temp. Wind Precip.
City Station ID Temp.
Riverside, CA NONE 95 °F
Avalon, CA KAVX 93 °F
Corona, CA KAJO 91 °F
Santee, CA KSEE 91 °F
Fullerton, CA KFUL 89 °F
Chino, CA KCNO 88 °F
Ramona, CA KRNM 87 °F
Van Nuys, CA KVNY 87 °F
Long Beach, CA KLGB 87 °F
Ontario, CA KONT 87 °F
Quoting 384. Dakster:



What sun? I don't see the sun... I see it is very overcast out... I think pilots call this flat light. I know there is a big mountain behind me but I can't see it.

It got the temp and the wind right.



Well, it says overcast. I said the Sun was out "Here." What is your length of day now?
Quoting 378. HaoleboySurfEC:

Mother Nature will make you pay.




This is mother nature making us pay. No snow = no business for a lot of people around here. Like plowing, skiing (Alyeska hasn't opened because there is no snow), and sno maching.
Quoting 387. Dakster:



This is mother nature making us pay. No snow = no business for a lot of people around here. Like plowing, skiing (Alyeska hasn't opened because there is no snow), and sno maching.

Who Knew, Just like Florida, No Snow.....
Quoting 386. PedleyCA:



Well, it says overcast. I said the Sun was out "Here." What is your length of day now?


Let's see - technically from around 9am to 4:30pm. Realistically now it is more like 9:30am to 4:00pm. Unfortunately, there is a bigger mountain that what I live on, in the way of me and the sun so I get a lot of being in the shadows.

Let's just say that at 2:45pm my auto headlights are turning on when I go to pick up my son from school and that is when it isn't overcast. At 3:30pm dusk is in progress when I pick up my daughter.
Happy Thanksgiving to ALL, Off to Torrance, CA...
Quoting 390. PedleyCA:

Happy Thanksgiving to ALL, Off to Torrance, CA...
Happy Thanksgiving Peds...Be safe..Its suppose to get wet...:)
Quoting 381. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good afternoon

Beautiful 83, feeling like 86, with a few clouds around.

One of the traditions we participate in every T'day is going to a huge dinner at our local bar. Each person walking in with a dish pays $5.00 and those without a dish pay $25.00. A charity is chosen and all proceeds donated to it. This year the charity chosen is the Cancer Society. Looking forward to a great evening with good friends and great food!

Just wanted to wish all of you and yours a safe and happy Thanksgiving Day.

Lindy


I've been to a few of these while visiting in St. Thomas. Fun times! :)
Tonight is going to be our coldest night of the season for my area.
Previous coldest low was 47 degrees (record) back on Nov.2nd (if my memory is correct).

A little embarrassing - we have a Wind Chill Advisory for tonight (De Soto County). People up north would laugh at that, but it's cold for us.

Quoting 393. Sfloridacat5:

Tonight is going to be our coldest night of the season for my area.
Previous coldest low was 47 degrees (record) back on Nov.2nd (if my memory is correct).

A little embarrassing - we have a Wind Chill Advisory for tonight. People up north would laugh at that, but it's cold for us.




NWS was saying 40F earlier for the north Orlando area and are now saying 42F. Most likely since it got several degrees warmer than forecast today. The last cold front was colder. Happy Thanksgiving all!
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


NWS was saying 40F earlier for the north Orlando area and are now saying 42F. Most likely since it got several degrees warmer than forecast today. The last cold front was colder. Happy Thanksgiving all!


Overall I would say so.
But there are freeze warnings for north central and north Florida for tonight.

And it will be really close or even colder than the Nov.2nd low for us.
Should be warmer for north Florida and the Panhandle, because they got really cold back on Nov.2nd

The main reason we should get down pretty low tonight is the clear skies. If we could get the wind to die down, then we could really cool off.


14-0 against Dallas
Freeze warning to the north and wind chill advisory to the south. Also, rip current statement for westcentral and southwest Fl. beaches
Happy Thanksgiving to you.

The rain event in Morocco has started now. Link to a radar animation. How reliable that is for this region don't ask me.

Jet Stream forecast is correct until now:



Spain isn't receiving severe rainfall amounts until now, but there is a nasty cell going onshore in Montpelier/France right now. Link

And to check out if I'm able to embed a YouTube Video, here a walk through Genoa on 10.10.2014 after their most severe rain event this fall. To see the effects afterwards illustrates the severe nature of these events this fall in Europe.

Quoting ChrisHamburg:
Happy Thanksgiving to you.

The rain event in Morocco has started now. Link to a radar animation. How reliable that is for this region don't ask me.

Jet Stream forecast is correct until now:



Spain isn't receiving until now severe rainfall amounts, but there is a nasty cell going onshore in Montpelier/France right now. Link

And to check out if I'm able to embed a YouTube Video, here a walk through Genoa on 11.10.2014 after their most severe rain event this fall. To see the effects afterwards illustrates the severe nature of these events this fall in Europe.



That region around Montpellier seems to get hit pretty hard from time to time.
14-7
Interesting setup that produced the East Coast snow storm yesterday.
Nothing similar or even close going up through December 10th (end of loop).

400. DDR
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Very rainy in the Costa Rica mountains last night -- total 3 inches. There may be some landslides and closed roads as a result. But the greenery is lush!

Hey,thats interesting,i'm guessing your from Costa Rica?
Quoting 398. Sfloridacat5:



That region around Montpellier seems to get hit pretty hard from time to time.
14-7


The Mediterranean Sea is 3 - 4 degree Celsius or 5,4 - 7,4 degree Fahrenheit above average in this region right now, so there is enough energy around for severe thunder storms. It isn't normal that they get this severe storms on 27 of November, Lightning looks severe.
Link
Hello DDR your are from Trinidad If I remember correctly and when yes how was the raining season?
Quoting 400. DDR:


Hey,thats interesting,i'm guessing your from Costa Rica?
Yes, I am now -- but not native, retired. Another fairly wet afternoon here today, but only half an inch this time.


Monster ridging is on the way.
    Made it here just fine. 
Quoting 396. Sfloridacat5:

14-0 against Dallas
Freeze warning to the north and wind chill advisory to the south. Also, rip current statement for westcentral and southwest Fl. beaches


I can't help but laugh...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO
8 AM EST FRIDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30-34 DEGREES.
407. DDR
Quoting ChrisHamburg:
Hello DDR your are from Trinidad If I remember rightly and when yes how was the raining season?

Hey there Chris,yes i am from Trinidad,rainy season is winding down and offically ends Dec.31st.Theres been huge differences in rainfall accumulations,wtih certain areas well above average and others the opposite,a very disturbing pattern.
Yes, similar to Maine, VT, NH and upstate NY. It's the winter lifeblood. It's a way of life too. It's also going to mess with the animals soon if something doesn't change.

Happy Thanksgiving.


Quoting 387. Dakster:



This is mother nature making us pay. No snow = no business for a lot of people around here. Like plowing, skiing (Alyeska hasn't opened because there is no snow), and sno maching.
Quoting ChrisHamburg:


The Mediterranean Sea is 3 - 4 degree Celsius or 5,4 - 7,4 degree Fahrenheit above average in this region right now, so there is enough energy around for severe thunder storms. It isn't normal that they get this severe storms on 27 of November, Lightning looks severe.
Link


Quoting ChrisHamburg:


The Mediterranean Sea is 3 - 4 degree Celsius or 5,4 - 7,4 degree Fahrenheit above average in this region right now, so there is enough energy around for severe thunder storms. It isn't normal that they get this severe storms on 27 of November, Lightning looks severe.
Link


The energy that was over the East Coast yesterday is now shifted over to Northern Africa and Europe.
410. DDR
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Yes, I am now -- but not native, retired. Another fairly wet afternoon here today, but only half an inch this time.

Cool,rain every day is niceness,your rainfall totals are probably in the 150+inches yearly range,i'd need to move to the north-eastern part of my island to get 150-200 inches a years,right now im averaging about 110
Quoting 407. DDR:


Hey there Chris,yes i am from Trinidad,rainy season is winding down and offically ends Dec.31st.Theres been huge differences in rainfall accumulations,wtih certain areas well above average and others the opposite,a very disturbing pattern.

As Colorado Bob said earlier today:-
Some people think its just a glitch, or an anomaly.
Well welcome to the world of "who knows what's going to happen next?

We meanwhile had heavy rains but tomorrow, we are going to have heavier rains.
The Med coast near Malaga had an attack of tornados which caused quite a bit of structural damage but no injuries, loads of mess and wood strew about.
Tomorrow its going to rain very heavily and flooding is inevitable of course. Gale or hurricane force winds up to about 80 MPH or around 130 KPH, so more damage.
Meanwhile I am watching a distant field being dissolved by the small stream which flows through it, except that the small stream is now quite a wide river.
With all that good night from southern Europe.
Quoting 393. Sfloridacat5:

Tonight is going to be our coldest night of the season for my area.
Previous coldest low was 47 degrees (record) back on Nov.2nd (if my memory is correct).

A little embarrassing - we have a Wind Chill Advisory for tonight (De Soto County). People up north would laugh at that, but it's cold for us.




47F? I still wear shorts. I don't even break out a jacket until the temps dip down into the 20s. :)
Surprise coating of snow on Thanksgiving Day. Love it :p


Hope everyone had a great day.
Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving Day!

Here in West Palm area, temps are quickly dropping down into the 50's. It was a beautiful day and tomorrow looks to be even cooler with crystal blue skies. Love it!
Hopping in late night ... The impressive cut-off low entering the Atlantic coast of southern Europe and northern Africa has been named as Xandra. May "she" behave!


Saved airmass pic.




Current rain radar Spain (updating here).

Current discussion and warnings from Estofex, especially for poor southern France once again.

Good night, hope your turkey was crisp and the company around the table smooth :-)
Quoting 340. Tropicsweatherpr:



The 7 day change graphic confirms the cooling data. Good to see my favorite site rolling back.


Is down.
Quoting 406. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I can't help but laugh...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO
8 AM EST FRIDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30-34 DEGREES.


Don't judge us!
Quoting 417. Naga5000:



Don't judge us!
I have to agree that is funny.
AWWWWWWH OOH! A small bit of advice. Don't got back for the third piece of pumpkin pie. It can put you over the edge.
Tropical Storm in Philippines on Thursday, 27 November, 2014 at 14:47 (02:47 PM) UTC.
Description
Two people were killed and seven others missing in the Philippines after a tropical depression spawned huge waves and flash floods, forcing hundreds to flee their homes, authorities said on Thursday (Nov 27). Pre-emptive evacuation of people in areas prone to floods and landslides helped keep the casualties low, but others along the coast were hit hard by the storm, locally code-named "Queenie". One woman was swept away by floodwaters on the central island of Cebu while a man was fatally injured when his boat was battered by huge waves off the island of Bohol on Wednesday, said regional disaster monitoring chief Olive Luces. "Even before Queenie hit, we were already experiencing bad weather," she told AFP. Four people went missing while at sea while three others were carried away by huge waves, Luces added. The storm, with maximum winds of 55 kilometres per hour, hit the eastern coast of the southern island of Mindanao late Wednesday, then moved westward, across the central islands before heading to Palawan island. It is expected to continue moving west towards the South China Sea.
Quoting 419. Grothar:

AWWWWWWH OOH! A small bit of advice. Don't got back for the third piece of pumpkin pie. It can put you over the edge.


Lol, all the best, Gro!

From: Wilhelm Busch, Max and Moritz (Famous German comic, first published in 1865), First and Second Trick (apt for Thanksgiving, lol, although Gro may have sticked to the pumpkins), English Translation here.

To most people who have leisure
Raising poultry gives great pleasure:
First, because the eggs they lay us
For the care we take repay us;
Secondly, that now and then
We can dine on roasted hen;

Thirdly, of the hen's and goose's
Feathers men make various uses.
Some folks like to rest their heads
In the night on feather beds ...
(And so on)

And I do exactly the last mentioned thing now ...
New Hampshire is in a mess after the snow storm with near 200,000 without power. Power loss was caused by both falling trees & cars hitting utility poles. Five patrol cruisers were hit by out of control cars while parked dealing with other accidents, atleast one trooper was injured.
Maine has over 100,000 without power for Thanksgiving. There was also a fatal accident in the snow & numerous wrecks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I can't help but laugh...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO
8 AM EST FRIDAY.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30-34 DEGREES.

yeah, that is funny.
What are they thinking?! Exposure of 2+ hours to those wind chills will cause frostbite, but not exposure of less than 30 minutes.
Quoting 421. barbamz:



Lol, all the best, Gro!

From: Wilhelm Busch, Max and Moritz (Famous German comic, first published in 1865), First and Second Trick (apt for Thanksgiving, lol, although Gro may have sticked to the pumpkins), English Translation here.

To most people who have leisure
Raising poultry gives great pleasure:
First, because the eggs they lay us
For the care we take repay us;
Secondly, that now and then
We can dine on roasted hen;

Thirdly, of the hen's and goose's
Feathers men make various uses.
Some folks like to rest their heads
In the night on feather beds ...
(And so on)

And I do exactly the last mentioned thing now ...



The Katzenjammer Kids lol
Quoting 425. Grothar:




The Katzenjammer Kids lol
Happy Thanksgiving Grothar!
Quoting 426. Climate175:

Happy Thanksgiving Grothar!


Thanks, Clim. Same to you. Think we will have a little tropical action next week? I have a cousin, whose sister-in-law has a neighbor, whose ex-wife's third husband has a connection with the hurricane center and said there might be something to watch. :)
Quoting 427. Grothar:



Thanks, Clim. Same to you. Think we will have a little tropical action next week? I have a cousin, whose sister-in-law has a neighbor, whose ex-wife's third husband has a connection with the hurricane center and said there might be something to watch. :)
We will see for sure.
21W looks like it wants to get going

Nice capture by quickeye..
Quoting 392. Naga5000:



I've been to a few of these while visiting in St. Thomas. Fun times! :)


Naga, it was a wonderful evening. I agree, they are fun times! A lot of money was raised for a great charity tonight. If you hit Betsy's in your travels, then you've probably run into us!

Lindy
21W does have more convection..
Quoting 427. Grothar:



Thanks, Clim. Same to you. Think we will have a little tropical action next week? I have a cousin, whose sister-in-law has a neighbor, whose ex-wife's third husband has a connection with the hurricane center and said there might be something to watch. :)


I'm so impressed with your connections, Gro! Happy Thanksgiving to you and your Missus!

Lindy
Did youtube take away the old embed code?
Quoting 421. barbamz:



Lol, all the best, Gro!

From: Wilhelm Busch, Max and Moritz (Famous German comic, first published in 1865), First and Second Trick (apt for Thanksgiving, lol, although Gro may have sticked to the pumpkins), English Translation here.

To most people who have leisure
Raising poultry gives great pleasure:
First, because the eggs they lay us
For the care we take repay us;
Secondly, that now and then
We can dine on roasted hen;

Thirdly, of the hen's and goose's
Feathers men make various uses.
Some folks like to rest their heads
In the night on feather beds ...
(And so on)

And I do exactly the last mentioned thing now ...
Barb, thanks for that memory. My German mother had a copy of Max and Moritz and I grew up on it. Fun stuff!
Quoting 435. GeoffreyWPB:

Did youtube take away the old embed code?

Looks like it, I can't find the option on any videos I visit.
Quoting 435. GeoffreyWPB:

Did youtube take away the old embed code?

They did... WunderBlogger RobDaHood made a nice code generator for that..
Quoting 435. GeoffreyWPB:

Did youtube take away the old embed code?


I think it is just different now. When you click, EMBED, the URL should be highlighted and just copy that and paste.

Test

Failed
Skyepony wrote..
21W does have more convection.


Officially named Sinlaku by Japan Meteorological Agency at 9:00 AM JST (28NOV). Looks like it made landfall over Palawan (Luzon) between 4:00 AM and 7:00 AM JST.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM SINLAKU (T1421)
9:00 AM JST November 28 2014
==================================
South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sinlaku (1002 hPa) located at 10.7N 117.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 12.1N 112.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 13.0N 109.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 13.2N 105.1E - Tropical Depression Overland Cambodia
Quoting 432. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Naga, it was a wonderful evening. I agree, they are fun times! A lot of money was raised for a great charity tonight. If you hit Betsy's in your travels, then you've probably run into us!

Lindy


My wife and I actually have been there a while ago. We haven't been able to get down to the islands recently, hopefully a return trip is in the plans soon. Glad to hear it was a good day. :)
Quoting 434. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I'm so impressed with your connections, Gro! Happy Thanksgiving to you and your Missus!

Lindy


Thanks, we all a good one. Hope you did, too. It's nice to know people in high places. Glad you enjoyed it.

I couldn't get Rob's to work, but the one Pat gave worked fine. Thanks, Pat.

Quoting 448. Grothar:

I couldn't get Rob's to work, but the one Pat gave worked fine. Thanks, Pat.



Seen others use it. I've just been writing it in..

That flooding in Morocco has been out of hand.. The driver survives.

Quoting 347. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nope, not for now. :)

The first half of December looks above-average to in some locations well-above average. However, by the second half of the month, I expect the pattern to flip back to what we've seen for the past month (although not to such an extreme degree) as the MJO enters the West Hemisphere. Something that will need to be watched out for--Michael Ventrice pointed this out on Twitter--is that model guidance is cluing in on a West Pacific tropical cyclone in the extended range. If that were to pan out and the system recurved into the mid-latitudes, that would solidify the idea of a cold end to December. We shall see.

Brief periods of warmth in an overall frigid winter (what I'm predicting) are not unusual though.

Agreed... I personally don't care if December somehow ends up torchy (which is more likely the further north & west you go in the US, although the pattern the first 7-10 days of the month will be an inversion of this), in the eastern US & the southeast especially, it's amazing to see that although there is some variation between individual events, the blaring signal I see with +ENSO winters is that virtually no matter what intensity you choose (Anywhere from Warm Neutral to even a strong El Nino), the coldest month of winter relative to average usually ends up being February and w/ further backing from Cohen's SAI research which has the strongest correlations to a predominantly negative winter AO in February, I anticipate this trend will hold this winter.

In this picture I used the same scaling throughout w/ standardized temperature anomalies against the 1981-2010 base period. Reason being, despite the fact that an earlier base period may have been more applicable to account for the general warming that has taken place in the US since the 1950s, (thus perhaps giving a cold bias to these composites) I deemed this necessary given the high SAI/SCE as well as other predominant signals for blocking which will likely bias the US winter temperature anomalies on the cooler side of the "climatological" ENSO composites...




I also would like to wish everyone here a Happy Thanksgiving & wouldn't advise you to go to crazy w/ the Black Friday shopping. Been there, done that...
Quoting 438. Skyepony:


They did... WunderBlogger RobDaHood made a nice code generator for that..

Maybe someday Weather Underground will join the 21st century and stop requiring old embed codes to begin with. :)
452. vis0
Can someone put fresh batteries in the ENSO read out areas 1 thru 4, whats the deal with the "broken elbow" readout on all 4 areas??? Not able to go to Levis direct read it at WxU Tropicsweatherpr blog.
Saw this earlier today from Mike Ventrice & thought it was worth sharing. For those who would like to see the MJO & tropical forcing influence the extratropics in real-time using TRMM rainfall VP 200 & 200mb winds filtered for the MJO, I would highly suggest checking this link out. I always find it interesting to see the response of the Pacific Jet to rapid shifts in mean center of upward motion in the tropics, as the MJO regenerates over the eastern hemisphere, it reels in the Pacific Jet like a fish...
Link
Quoting vis0:
Can someone put fresh batteries in the ENSO read out areas 1 thru 4, whats the deal with the "broken elbow" readout on all 4 areas??? Not able to go to Levis direct read it at WxU Tropicsweatherpr blog.


Levi's site was down due to a massive DDoS attack during that time. He got it back up just today I believe.
Did everyone have a nice Thanksgiving?
Quoting PedleyCA:
Did everyone have a nice Thanksgiving?
Good evening, Ped. Yes, I did, and hope yours was equally nice. There were 14 of us at my fiance's daughter's house. We had about five times more food than anyone (including me) could eat. Unfortunately, her house is in another podunk town one and a half hours away from my podunk town, which made for a long day. There were five kids there from 7 to 16 years of age. One lesson I learned was that young people are willing to tolerate adults as long as the time we demand doesn't exceed the minimum period required for video game withdrawals to begin. :-)

The cold air advection is in full force tonight. Even though I still have a steady 3-5 mph wind, it's already down to 35 and feels more like 25. It wasn't supposed to get below freezing according Tuesday's forecast, and it looks like that will be a bust. We had to spend part of the time when we got home hauling in all the tender plants we just put outside again based on the forecast of no freezing temperatures. We're supposed to get up into the low to mid-70's over the weekend with lows in the upper 40's, and I think I'll wait to see that forecast verify before dragging the plants back outside again.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Levi's site was down due to a massive DDoS attack during that time. He got it back up just today I believe.
Correct. He moved the site to a new server and it has been up and down today, which isn't surprising for new hardware. What is surprising is that he spent at least part of Thanksgiving getting it running again. Most pay sites don't have that kind of service. I hope he had some time off with family and friends and got his share of turkey.
Quoting Webberweather53:
Saw this earlier today from Mike Ventrice & thought it was worth sharing. For those who would like to see the MJO & tropical forcing influence the extratropics in real-time using TRMM rainfall VP 200 & 200mb winds filtered for the MJO, I would highly suggest checking this link out. I always find it interesting to see the response of the Pacific Jet to rapid shifts in mean center of upward motion in the tropics, as the MJO regenerates over the eastern hemisphere, it reels in the Pacific Jet like a fish...
Link
I just hope it leads to at least seasonable weather down here and no freezing temperatures for the next week or so. It's pretty depressing having so many days below freezing in November when we still have "real" winter ahead of us.
There were 25+ people where I was over in Torrance. It was fun, but quite loud. Lots of food, lots of leftovers and lots of pies.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe someday Weather Underground will join the 21st century and stop requiring old embed codes to begin with. :)
Or that we could just post links and images and have the site software parse it out and produce images and clickable links instead of having to use code generator buttons. Having the HTML code generated for you by pressing a button was state of the art in 2003, when I first stated reading the blog regularly. Unfortunately, it's not 2003 any longer, and even the clunkiest web site software can parse pasted links today.
461. vis0

Quoting 454. CybrTeddy:



Levi's site was down due to a massive DDoS attack during that time. He got it back up just today I believe.
Thank you for the info. i noticed that a few days ago. My issue was answered by Levi on another members comment and i did not notice them until after i began to leave comments.

My issuer was that all 4 areas drop almost indentically, Levi said it was that there was 3 days of info missing (not plotted) so when the site came back the point from the last plot 3 days ago to the latest plot was connected.

But, a more weather vrelated question if its not a glitch is why did all 4 areas react almost exactly the same?
Quoting PedleyCA:
There were 25+ people where I was over in Torrance. It was fun, but quite loud. Lots of food, lots of leftovers and lots of pies.
It was very loud there as well, as all the women there apparently believe you communicate better by being as loud as possible and talking over one another. I think I've mentioned before that I have Meniere's Disease, which is why I'm deaf in one ear. It also causes a thing called recruitment. No, I don't have to enlist, but it means I'm hypersensitive to loud noises, particularly those in the human voice range and coming from different directions. It's actually physically painful, but even more socially painful, as I need to take a break from all the noise every 15 minutes or so. People think I'm just unsociable at parties like that when I'm just trying to get my ears to stop hurting. I think the crowd today was about at my limit.
Quoting 455. PedleyCA:

Did everyone have a nice Thanksgiving?


Yep and despite the travel delays my mother and step-father made it into the airport just fine....

BTW, Freezing Fog and +8F now Ped...
Quoting 459. PedleyCA:

There were 25+ people where I was over in Torrance. It was fun, but quite loud. Lots of food, lots of leftovers and lots of pies.


Sounds great Ped! Glad you had a good time.
Quoting 417. Naga5000:



Don't judge us!


I stood outside last week in 15 degree weather with just a t-shirt and pants on. Not even possible to get frostbite at that temperature (in 30 minutes or less). I was out there for 15 minutes.

Lol, Floridians.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Thanksgiving weekend reading

Invisible shield found thousands of miles above Earth blocks 'killer electrons'

Hey, Brian, how goes it? I've been missing your article lists but I know you sometimes have other things on your mind than this blog.

The one about the electron shield in the Van Allen Belt is one radio amateurs have been following since we first saw the preliminary results of the study. We've known for a long time that, regardless of frequency or time of day, there's a maximum distance that a radio signal can be sent with one hop was about 7,500 miles. We weren't able to explain this with any of the known layers in the ionosphere. All we knew was radio signals can sometimes travel this maximum distance more often during times of high sunspot activity. Now it appears this layer of electrons in the Van Allen Belt not only helps to protect the earth from incoming high power electrons but it also serves as a barrier to radio signals just shooting off into space. This creates a mirror that allows us to talk literally around the world on those rare occasions when this layer is activated by a large amount of incoming solar radiation, and we now know this layer is 7,500 miles in space, which matches what we knew about how far a radio signal could travel when it was being reflected by something. Now we know - pretty cool, assuming you're a radio nerd. :-)
Quoting vis0:

Thank you for the info. i noticed that a few days ago. My issue was answered by Levi on another members comment and i did not notice them until after i began to leave comments.

My issuer was that all 4 areas drop almost indentically, Levi said it was that there was 3 days of info missing (not plotted) so when the site came back the point from the last plot 3 days ago to the latest plot was connected.

But, a more weather vrelated question if its not a glitch is why did all 4 areas react almost exactly the same?
I assume it's because the temperature actually went down last week in all four regions. You can back fit the data into a trend line to compensate for the three missing days, and the ending data and trend line seems to confirm that the drop in temperatures was real. I don't follow ENSO all that closely, however, so I could very well be wrong.
Quoting Dakster:


Yep and despite the travel delays my mother and step-father made it into the airport just fine....

BTW, Freezing Fog and +8F now Ped...
That's a long trip, so it's nice to hear they weren't hung up somewhere. I think this storm didn't turn out to be quite as bad as originally forecast, as least in terms of airport weather conditions along the East Coast. I hate freezing fog. We used to get that sometimes in northern Nevada, always when I had to drive somewhere else in the state. Ice fog seemed to me to be much worse to drive in that normal fog. Maybe it's all those ice crystals that just float around, but I found it difficult to see anything during the day and impossible at night, when your headlights just reflect a white wall starting at about 50 feet in front of your hood. Be careful if you haven't driven in ice fog before. It's no day at the beach. :-)
We called that SKIP back in the old days!
Quoting sar2401:

Hey, Brian, how goes it? I've been missing your article lists but I know you sometimes have other things on your mind than this blog.

The one about the electron shield in the Van Allen Belt is one radio amateurs have been following since we first saw the preliminary results of the study. We've known for a long time that, regardless of frequency or time of day, there's a maximum distance that a radio signal can be sent with one hop was about 7,500 miles. We weren't able to explain this with any of the known layers in the ionosphere. All we knew was radio signals can sometimes travel this maximum distance more often during times of high sunspot activity. Now it appears this layer of electrons in the Van Allen Belt not only helps to protect the earth from incoming high power electrons but it also serves as a barrier to radio signals just shooting off into space. This creates a mirror that allows us to talk literally around the world on those rare occasions when this layer is activated by a large amount of incoming solar radiation, and we now know this layer is 7,500 miles in space, which matches what we knew about how far a radio signal could travel when it was being reflected by something. Now we know - pretty cool, assuming you're a radio nerd. :-)
In radio communication, skywave or skip refers to the propagation of radio waves reflected or refracted back toward Earth from the ionosphere, an electrically charged layer of the upper atmosphere. Since it is not limited by the curvature of the Earth, skywave propagation can be used to communicate beyond the horizon, at intercontinental distances. It is mostly used in the shortwave frequency bands.

As a result of skywave propagation, a signal from a distant AM broadcasting station, a shortwave station, or—during sporadic E propagation conditions (principally during the summer months in both hemispheres)—a low frequency television station can sometimes be received as clearly as local stations. Skywave propagation is distinct from groundwave propagation, where radio waves travel near Earth's surface without being reflected or refracted by the atmosphere—the dominant propagation mode at lower frequencies, and line-of-sight propagation, in which radio waves travel in a straight line, the dominant mode at higher frequencies. Most long-distance shortwave (high frequency) radio communication—between 3 and 30 MHz—is a result of skywave propagation. Since the early 1920s amateur radio operators (or "hams"), limited to lower transmitter power than broadcast stations, have taken advantage of skywave for long distance (or "DX") communication.
Quoting swflurker:
We called that SKIP back in the old days!
Really? Other than a Wikipedia copy and paste, that's it? How long have you had your amateur radio license and what class are you?
Quoting 449. Skyepony:


Seen others use it. I've just been writing it in..

That flooding in Morocco has been out of hand.. The driver survives.



The appalling wet weather continues in Southern Spain today.
From where I am looking in the direction of the Mediterranean coast the sky over there is almost black.
About 50 miles away over the sea is Morocco where they must be really suffering, especially with the steep sided valleys and mountain roads.
After Saturday things are set to improve with dryer weather.
Short hello this morning as family visits are ahead for the next days, with some observations of "Xandra". It's looking really bad for southern France right now with more torrential rains. 13 counties are set on orange alert ....




Source for updates.


Saved loop. Source for updates.

De la pluie, des orages et du vent: 13 departements du Sud en alerte orange
publie le 27 November 2014

Look at this; incredible (and sadly causing loss of lives already):

French Riviera hit by torrential rain and flash flooding
BBC video report, 54 minutes ago
At least one person has died and three others are missing after torrential rain left homes and roads inundated on the French Riviera. Helicopters were used to evacuate stranded residents and temporary shelters have been set up to house people. Laura Westbrook reports.

-------------------------------


Fresh video from Port la Nouvelle/France. Unbelievable strong rain in Europe.
---------------------------

Best wishes to the affected people and a nice weekend for everyone on WU.
476. vis0

Hello barbamz,

Air mass movement is totally out of whack IMO. as usual water vapour tells the story:



Water vapour animation for the region comes only in 6h intervals but nevertheless the movements are observable when you lower the animation speed a little: Link

Andalusia/Spain rain amounts are impressive:




and outlook is for substantial rain amount along southern Spain at 42 h as the system moves along into the Mediterranean with diminished energy:

Fort Myers Fl.

46 degrees here at the house.
48 degrees in town
Temps as low as 41 degrees out in the sticks.

Record is something crazy like 35 degrees. So it could be a much colder.
Looks like sunny and just about perfect weather for the next week or longer with temps ranging from about 70 warming to the 80s by next week.
479. vis0

Snow for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Plains Friday night through Saturday.

A series of systems will move from the Pacific across the Northwest and continue to bring lots of precipitation to the region. Friday night into Saturday night a cold front will drop south out of British Columbia and bring enough cold air to Washington and Oregon to dive snow levels down to lowland areas. Portland and Seattle should stay warm enough for mainly rainfall but there is potential to see a bit of snow for both metro areas Saturday into Saturday night. For the mountains however there will be a lot of snow with as muck as 2 feet in parts of the Cascades through the Inter-Mountain West. The 24 hour probability of at least an inch of snow is shown below to highlight how close the measurable snow will come to Seattle and Portland. Below that is the GFC snowfall forecast through Saturday morning for the Northwest.

Finally this system will continue to drive southward and bring significant snowfall to the Sierra as well in the Saturday to Sunday time frame.


where is the cold weather???
only Miami, FL Weather 55F AT 8am this morning
Quoting 479. vis0:



Its not even winter yet , and we have been down to 11 degrees here in Middle TN..Cannot help but wonder what this winter holds. Needless to say , we are preparing for snow, bitter , cold and ice..

I might get some ICE on Monday. Before I do my ICE storm song, what are some things that could happen?
per CNN article

In New Hampshire, more than 133,000 customers were still without power early Friday.

"They're saying it will be a multiday event," said Fallon Reed, the assistant operations chief for the New Hampshire Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

In Maine, there were as many as 110,000 customers without electricity on Thanksgiving morning, but milder Turkey Day temperatures allowed for workers to cut that number down by more than two thirds by night's end.

Central Maine Power Co. reported that less than 32,000 customers had no power, while Emera, the state's second-largest utility company, reported that less than 1,000 customers were without electricity after a Wednesday nor'easter dumped more than a foot of snow across a dozen Maine cities, WMTW reported.

Quoting hurricanes2018:


where is the cold weather???


Based on the 06Z GFS, there's really no real cold air for the southern half of the U.S. for the next two weeks.
All that cold air is stuck up in Canada and the extreme northern part of the U.S.. A little bit of Arctic air will leak into the northern part of the U.S., but there's really nothing to force it down deep into the U.S.

This could just set us up for a really cold second half of the month of December?

Quoting whitewabit:
per CNN article

In New Hampshire, more than 133,000 customers were still without power early Friday.

"They're saying it will be a multiday event," said Fallon Reed, the assistant operations chief for the New Hampshire Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Management.

In Maine, there were as many as 110,000 customers without electricity on Thanksgiving morning, but milder Turkey Day temperatures allowed for workers to cut that number down by more than two thirds by night's end.

Central Maine Power Co. reported that less than 32,000 customers had no power, while Emera, the state's second-largest utility company, reported that less than 1,000 customers were without electricity after a Wednesday nor'easter dumped more than a foot of snow across a dozen Maine cities, WMTW reported.



You would think cities in Maine would be used to getting a foot of snow.
Maybe because the snow was so wet and heavy and that caused branches to come down on power lines?
Because a foot of snow in Maine is like an inch of rain in Florida. It's to be expected and happens all the time.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Speaking of Maine and the Northeast.

Here's a current snow depth map.

Yup, you got it. Heavy wet snow is not the norm. If this were a January storm, it would have been 30"+, rather than 12"+. My inlaws in western Maine said that the first 4" was more like ice in terms of weight and accumulation. The power lines and trees were encased in 4" of wet snow that froze in place. Then all you need is moderate winds to bring branches and even lines themselves down. Also, little or none of the power grid is below ground.

Quoting 489. Sfloridacat5:



You would think cities in Maine would be used to getting a foot of snow.
Maybe because the snow was so wet and heavy and that caused branches to come down on power lines?
Because a foot of snow in Maine is like an inch of rain in Florida. It's to be expected and happens all the time.