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October 2014: Earth's Third Consecutive Warmest Month on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:42 PM GMT on November 21, 2014

October 2014 was the warmest October on record, and the year-to-date-period January - October was Earth's warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. NOAA also rated the past 12 months--November 2013 through October 2014--as the warmest consecutive 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880. "It is becoming pretty clear that 2014 will end up as the warmest year on record," said Deke Arndt, climate monitoring chief for NCDC in an interview with Associated Press. NASA also rated October 2014 as the warmest October on record, tied with 2005. October is the fifth month of 2014 ranked by NOAA as the warmest on record; May, June, August and September 2014 were also the warmest such months on record, and April 2014 was the second warmest April on record. Global ocean temperatures during October 2014 were the warmest on record. This marks the sixth month in a row (beginning in May 2014) that the global ocean temperature broke its monthly temperature record. Global land temperatures in October 2014 were the 5th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in October 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 9th or 1st warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2014, the warmest October for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth in much of southern South America and large parts of southern and western Australia contributed to the record high average land surface temperature observed during October in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, record warmth was also observed in parts of southern Europe, the western coastal regions of the United States, and much of Far East Russia. On the other hand, parts of central Siberia observed temperatures 4 - 5°C (7 - 9°F) below average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .


Figure 2. Global departure of temperature from average for each year since 1880. The ten warmest years in Earth's recorded history are shown in red; after a relatively cool start, 2014 is now on pace the break the warmest year record set in 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

One billion-dollar weather disaster in October 2014: India's Cyclone Hudhud
One billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during October 2014: India's Cyclone Hudhud, according to the October 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This brings the global number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the first nine months of 2014 to 22. This is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 36 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of October, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.



Tropical Cyclone Hudhud powered ashore near Visakhapatnam in the Andhra Pradesh state of India on Sunday, October 12 as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. With damage estimated at $11 billion, Hudhud was by far the most expensive tropical cyclone in India's history, and their third most expensive weather-related natural disaster, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. The previous most expensive Indian tropical cyclone was the October 28, 1999 Orissa Cyclone, which killed 9,843 people and did $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars.) India has had just one other billion-dollar tropical cyclone disaster, the November 8, 1996 cyclone that killed 708 and did $1.5 billion in damage (1996 dollars.) The staggering damage from Hudhud came just one month after India's most expensive natural disaster in its history--torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) that lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing over 600 people and doing $16+ billion in damage. India's previous most expensive natural disaster was the $11.6 billion (2014 dollars) in damage from the July 1993 monsoon floods.


Figure 3. The Vishakapatnam airport building that was damaged by Cyclone Hudhud in Vishakapatnam, India, as seen on Oct. 13, 2014. (AP Photo/Press Trust of India)

Hudhud's death toll was relatively low
Hudhud killed 68 people in India, but after dissipating, the storm's remains continued to the north and reached Nepal on October 14, unleashing a terrible snowstorm in the Himalayas that killed at least 43 people. According to Andrew Freedman of mashable.com, it was the worst disaster in the history of Nepal's mountain-climbing industry. However, the total death toll from Hudhud was extremely low in comparison to similar-strength cyclones that have hit the coast of India in recent decades. The October 28, 1999 Orissa Cyclone, which hit the coast just north of where Hudhud did, was also a Category 4 storm, but killed 9,843 people. Thankfully, due to improved warnings, civil defense efforts and awareness, the days of tropical cyclones killing 1000+ people in India are likely over.

El Niño conditions grow stronger
Remarkably, the record-warm global sea surface temperatures over the past six months have occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that historically has been present whenever record global ocean temperatures have occurred. October 2014 officially featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but sea surface temperatures rose to 0.5°C above average in mid-October in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. The warmth in the Niño 3.4 region has increased into mid-November, reaching 0.8°C above average this week. Most models predict El Niño will develop in late 2014 and continue into early 2015, and NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 58% chance of an El Niño developing this winter. If an El Niño does emerge, it is likely to be a weak event. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory took has a detailed look on the status of El Niño and the likely winter weather for December - February in his Thursday, November 20, 2014 post.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest October extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during October 2014 was the 6th lowest in the 36-year satellite record and was similar to October 2013 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Most spectacular weather videos of October
Nicolaus Wegner's Stormscapes 2 video is the most impressive collection of time-lapse severe storm footage I've ever seen. His 7-minute time-lapse compilation of his May - September 2014 adventures in Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado feature an impressive rainbow at 0:40, an incredible orange cumulonimbus at 4:00, a sequence of spectacular funnel clouds and tornadoes beginning at 5:10, and some stunning mammatus clouds at 6:04. Highly recommended.

Commentary
Earth's temperature so far in 2014 has been the warmest ever recorded. This comes despite the absence of an El Niño event, which is usually required in order for a new temperature record to be set. If NOAA's predicted 58% chance of an El Niño event this winter verifies, we could easily have two consecutive warmest years on record--2014 and 2015. Opponents of climate action have pushed the idea that Earth's climate has not warmed since 1998, but that is false assertion that uses a cherry-picked year in an attempt to confuse people about the long-term climate warming that is occurring. Earth's climate is warming, and based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that humans are responsible. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.


Video 1. We used to set global cold records every few years, but that hasn't happened since 1909. Video commentary is available at Climate Central.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So far today's severe threat has been surprisingly quiet. Convection has been surprisingly unimpressive for such a vigorous shortwave such that the MS, AL, and far west FL panhandle easily escaped the severe threat and didn't even get much rain.

Now, looking at things as they are, it seems the best risk may actually be closer to me in Tallahassee simply that we are going to get more time for instability to increase. The increase in modest instability is now starting to take effect, and the convection is finally looking more impressive. It's tough to say if it will actually lead to severe weather or not though despite that the forecast was for a more elevated risk than usual in this area.

It's worth noting that SPC is considering issuing a watch for the area, but notes some hesitation for not given the lack of instability, and surprisingly, vertical shear isn't nearly as impressive as models indicated it would be yet either.

We've already had well over 2 inches of rain, so I won't complain, I was hoping for a good thunderstorm though, as the heavy rain was nice but chilly warm front rain isn't particularly exciting even though it was much needed.
1003. Patrap
1004. txjac
Quoting 1002. Sfloridacat5:




Looks like fellow blogger opal has some severe weather risk today.
Hopefully she get rain as we know she likes it
1006. vis0
CREDIT:: meteocentre

For those that find it hard to tell similar colours apart try using a standalone colour picker. Hover over colour
key record that colour in HEX, RGB , numeric format then hover over numbers of interest, match numeric
value to key numeric value . (sent MC wx -not the rapper "patrap"- to place numeric value of colour in the "key
area" to make it as easy for visitors that have colorblind disadvantages as it is for full those with full colour
spectrum ability.
Quoting txjac:


Looks like fellow blogger opal has some severe weather risk today.
Hopefully she get rain as we know she likes it


Yeah, offshore we're starting to see the line break up into more individualized cells. These individualized cells will need to be watched closely for quick spin ups.
Quoting 1001. Jedkins01:

So far today's severe threat has been surprisingly quiet. Convection has been surprisingly unimpressive for such a vigorous shortwave such that the MS, AL, and far west FL panhandle easily escaped the severe threat and didn't even get much rain.

Now, looking at things as they are, it seems the best risk may actually be closer to me in Tallahassee simply that we are going to get more time for instability to increase. The increase in modest instability is now starting to take effect, and the convection is finally looking more impressive. It's tough to say if it will actually lead to severe weather or not though despite that the forecast was for a more elevated risk than usual in this area.

It's worth noting that SPC is considering issuing a watch for the area, but notes some hesitation for not given the lack of instability, and surprisingly, vertical shear isn't nearly as impressive as models indicated it would be yet either.

We've already had well over 2 inches of rain, so I won't complain, I was hoping for a good thunderstorm though, as the heavy rain was nice but chilly warm front rain isn't particularly exciting even though it was much needed.
Veering Wind profile, about 50 knots wind shear in the mid levels and lifted index in the negative values. CAPE doesn't look too impressive though.

This is slightly bigger than the huge system I'd thought we'd see. The landblob that was expected to traverse the southeast is pushed out into the Atlantic.
1010. Grothar
1011. ncstorm
6 inches of rain predicted on the 12z GFS through Thanksgiving for parts of the coastal Carolinas



with that scenario some fireman might actually get to enjoy thanksgiving because of the rain dampering those fry turkey sessions..

1012. 62901IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231720Z - 231815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. TORNADO WATCH IS
BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...CIRCULATIONS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAVE
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER WRN FL PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK BUOYANCY...SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 5.5 C/KM...THOUGH 1000 J/KG MLCAPE DOES EXTEND NWD
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF EVOLVING TSTMS. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
MAXIMIZED WELL INLAND...FOCUS/VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE NARROW WARM SECTOR. CURRENT THINKING IS
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOWER 70S.
WHILE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE NOTED WITH MOST DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014


ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 31508602 31418368 30018341 29608482 30228646 31508602
Quoting 1010. Grothar:


I'm still not excited..
Quoting 1008. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Veering Wind profile, about 50 knots wind shear in the mid levels and lifted index in the negative values. CAPE doesn't look too impressive though.




That was actually the 0Z you posted, last nights sounding as the warm front was to our south, here's what this morning's looks like, still not terribly menacing, but if we reach the potential CAPE of 1300 it could be enough:



Also the saturated air from surface to 700 mb and then drying above that is a good indicator of potential instability. SRH at SFC to 1 km and to 3 km is high enough for tornadoes even though total vertical shear isn't terribly high.

With that said if we can get the sun to break out here that would mean a much higher chance of severe around here.
1015. Grothar
Quoting 1013. washingtonian115:

I'm still not excited..



Here, shake this a few times and see if it does the trick.


We're really warm down here in S.W. Fl.



Add in the humidity

1017. 62901IL
first severe thunderstorm warning of the day!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC131-133-231845-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0285.141123T1814Z-141123T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1214 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VERNON...CHIPLEY...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1209 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 22 MILES WEST OF VERNON TO 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERNON...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROCK HILL TO BUNKER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BRUCE...RED BAY...SHADY GROVE...KNOX HILL...LIVE OAK...MILLERS
FERRY...NEW HOPE...HINSONS CROSSROADS...HOLMES VALLEY...WHITEHEAD
CROSSROADS...FIVE POINTS...SYLVANIA...SMYRNA...JOHNSON
CROSSROADS...SPRING HOLLOW...POPLAR HEAD...BROCK CROSSROAD...
BRADFORD...SUNNY HILLS...WAUSAU AND ORANGE HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8590 3070 8585 3074 8582 3078 8575
3077 8574 3075 8573 3075 8562 3083 8560
3083 8555 3058 8549 3043 8609 3059 8613
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 246DEG 42KT 3060 8602 3048 8600

$$

9-FOURNIER
Tornado Warning indicated on radar.
A closer look at the T storm warnings and tornado warning
Another tornado warning has been issued.
1021. 62901IL
second tornado warning of the day!

TORNADO WARNING
FLC059-131-133-231845-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0046.141123T1824Z-141123T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1224 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1219 PM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR DOUGLASS CROSSROAD...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WESTVILLE...CERROGORDO...CARYVILLE...GRITNEY...IZA GORA...PITTMAN
AND BETHLEHEM

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8579 3085 8562 3064 8597 3069 8601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 224DEG 45KT 3071 8593

$$

9-FOURNIER
1022. Patrap
963
WFUS52 KTAE 231824
TORTAE
FLC059-131-133-231845-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0046.141123T1824Z-141123T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1224 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1219 PM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR DOUGLASS CROSSROAD...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WESTVILLE...CERROGORDO...CARYVILLE...GRITNEY...IZA GORA...PITTMAN
AND BETHLEHEM

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.
1023. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1224 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
TORNADO WARNING     BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 1219 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 1214 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1214 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014
TORNADO WARNING     PORTLAND OR - KPQR 922 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014
TORNADO WARNING     PORTLAND OR - KPQR 901 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014
SPC had just decreased the chance of tornadoes for today.

Then we got a couple tornado warnings which caused them to put out the Tornado Watch.

seems there is a little weather on the way

just getting up here first coffee of the day mild outside almost 50 by tonight it will get there




Special weather statement in effect


Rain, wind and mild conditions tonight and Monday.

A rapidly intensifying disturbance brewing in Kansas is setting its sights on Ontario. It will track towards Lake Michigan tonight and cross Northeastern Ontario on Monday.

Rain, at times heavy, will arrive this evening in Southwestern Ontario and quickly spread to all other regions overnight. Rainfall amounts of 15 to locally 30 mm are expected before it tapers to showers on Monday. This may have some impact on the snow melt for parts of the snow belt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which received significant snowfall in the past week. Some localized flooding is possible in these areas.

As this weather system crosses the province on Monday, strong winds will strengthen to 50 gusting to 70 or 80 km/h out of the southwest. Localized gusts to 90 km/h are possible in some areas. Winds of this magnitude may bring down some limbs or the odd tree, and cause sporadic power outages. Wind warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
1026. Levi32
Quoting 1000. Neapolitan:

Understood. The point I'm making is that global DNS is not resolving your domain name. That is, it can't locate an IP address for tropicaltidbits.com. Regardless of what is happening downstream of that--including whether your physical web server is being attacked, or is even offline entirely--a DNS lookup should return that host IP from your domain's authoritative name server. That it can't do that is the first piece of the puzzle that needs to be solved, for regardless of your web server, if that name server doesn't know where it is on the internet, no traffic will ever reach it. (Now, if for some reason your setup is configured in such as way that the name server and web server are under simultaneous attack, your problem could be solved by moving the whole shebang to a different, more secure server. But even then, you might consider transferring authoritative name servers.)

I've been where you are--with commercial, mission-critical sites, no less--and know it's no fun. I wish you the best of luck.


Oh, yeah, that's because my IP address is currently redirected to 'NULL' in order to protect the rest of the network. Thanks though.
New Severe Thunderstorm Warning added
The Euro went from showing 13 inches to a sloppy 3 inches if we're lucky.I'm thinking just cold rain with some wet flakes.

CWG
Link
Quoting 1028. washingtonian115:

The Euro went from showing 13 inches to a sloppy 3 inches if we're lucky.I'm thinking just cold rain with some wet flakes.
Like last Sunday.
1031. Drakoen
ECMWF 12z is locked into next weeks Nor'easter. It looks at tad west compared to the previous run which will causing mixing issues along the I-95 corridor. This would be better for travelers and it looks like the interior from the Appalachian region to the Northeast will see the brunt of this storm.
1032. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
New Severe Thunderstorm Warning added
As usual, we got our first tornado warning at 1215 and the tornado watch at 1232. The tornado warning has already expired. It was about 20 miles west of me. If there was a tornado, it must have been small, since nothing was reported by public safety or amateur radio. We are getting more convection moving this way from the south as the convection didn't set up on the coast first and cut me off. I'm up to 0.89", still not what I had hoped to see but at least it's the largest total in more than two months.
Quoting 1024. Sfloridacat5:

SPC had just decreased the chance of tornadoes for today.

Then we got a couple tornado warnings which caused them to put out the Tornado Watch.




Total bulk shear less than models showed, which decreases the chance for mesocyclones but 0-1 km SRH is plenty high enough for tornadoes, so that's likely the reason for the change in mind. These type of forecasts are tricky when some parameters are very impressive and others aren't
Quoting 1030. Climate175:

Like last Sunday.


As such, it’s hard not to currently favor north and west of D.C. — and similar for the cities up I-95 — for the highest risk of significant snow.

There are also indications that this storm could rapidly develop, in “bombogenesis” (24mb pressure drop in 24 hours) style as it races from near the Carolinas Wednesday morning to near New England Wednesday night. That ups the ante when it comes to major travel disruptions rippling across the Northeast and beyond.
Tallahassee is next in line. Panama City had winds to 41 mph, not severe but strong enough to drop a few branches).

1036. Patrap
The clouds have gone to the East....Sunshine and fine building from the West.


View is N'east
1037. Drakoen
UKMET 12z very similar to the ECMWF 12z with the Nor'easter except much warmer 850s along the I-95 corridor. Good news for travelers.
Good afternoon all. It looks like quite a little surprise in Orlando today, currently 1 degree above our previous daily record high of 82. Feels like 88...what a quick switch from the 59/40 we had earlier in the month.
Hi Skyepony.

ESPI creeping back to positive just above 0.00.

Link
1040. LargoFl
well winds gusting over 30mph here on the gulf coast side of florida............
1041. Grothar
Quoting sar2401:
As usual, we got our first tornadoes warning at 1215 and the tornado watch at 1232. The tornado warning has already expired. It was about 20 miles west of me. If there was a tornado, it must have been small, since nothing was reported by public safety or amateur radio. We are getting more convection moving this way from the south as the convection didn't set up on the coast first and cut me off. I'm up to 0.89", still not what I had hoped to see but at least it's the largest total in more than two months.


Reactionary forecasting
Hopefully there were no actual tornadoes on the ground.
1043. ncstorm
1-95 with speeds of 75 mph and over with more than the usual amount of travelers plus add on rain with wet roads is still not the best of conditions..

lets HOPE people slow down and drive with caution..as someone who has travels 95 South every year since my existence on Thanksgiving I doubt that will happen..I have seen some awful accidents coming and going..
Quoting LargoFl:
well winds gusting over 30mph here on the gulf coast side of florida............


Yep, strong winds feeding into the system. It's 85 degrees here with a heat index around 90.
What happened to our cold weather? I guess we have to wait until Thursday/Friday for that.
1045. sar2401
Quoting Naga5000:
Good afternoon all. It looks like quite a little surprise in Orlando today, currently 1 degree above our previous daily record high of 82. Feels like 88...what a quick switch from the 59/40 we had earlier in the month.
I take it you haven't been swamped by that 5" of rain then... :-)
*TOPIC: *GOES-13 (GOES-EAST) RSO

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE:*REQUESTED BY WFO TAE SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS-HEAVY RAINFALL


Loop
Quoting ncstorm:
1-95 with speeds of 75 mph with more than the usual amount of travelers plus add on rain with wet roads is still not the best of conditions..

lets HOPE people slow down and drive with caution..as someone who has travels 95 South every year since my existence on Thanksgiving I doubt that will happen..I have seen some awful accidents coming and going..


Yeah, winds just gusted 41 mph in Dothan Alabama.
That's strong enough to cause you some issues, especially if you're driving a high profile vehicle.
1048. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Reactionary forecasting
Hopefully there were no actual tornadoes on the ground.
I don't think there was. It was only radar indicated and didn't look like much to me. The line is moving through here like a rocket. Many of the cells are traveling at 50-60 knots, one of the reasons for the strong winds today, although they haven't been bad here. The squall line is very skinny and should be through here in the next 20 minutes. After that, it looks like some stratiform clouds behind it, but the low center is also rapidly moving NE, so I don't expect the additional rain to last long before it dissolves.
Quoting 977. wilsongti45:

For your entertainment.





would be cool to see the thanksgiving day parade with accents of snow. maybe not for them but visually speaking.
1050. Drakoen
Looks like they need to go back to the drawing board with the Parallel GFS as it does not appear to be better than the regular GFS.
Don't forget north Florida should see another round of rain when the coastal low forms over Florida later in the week.
This will become the possible Eastcoast snow for Thanksgiving.

Another tornado warning has been issued.
Closer look at the tornado warning - very close to Columbus.
1054. 62901IL
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like they need to go back to the drawing board with the Parallel GFS as it does not appear to be better than the regular GFS.

explain your reasoning.
Two tornado warnings and severe T storm warning.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC039-063-073-077-129-GAC087-201-253-232045-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0287.141123T1956Z-141123T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GADSDEN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BAINBRIDGE...
SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DONALSONVILLE...

* UNTIL 345 PM EST/245 PM CST/

* AT 254 PM EST/154 PM CST/...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STEAM MILL TO SNEADS TO JENSEN
PLACE TO WILLIS LANDING...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
BAINBRIDGE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 2997 8502 3003 8510 3027 8501 3044 8501
3047 8499 3048 8500 3058 8497 3060 8494
3061 8502 3100 8509 3100 8500 3108 8502
3110 8455 3066 8447 3028 8446 3001 8456
3001 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 269DEG 21KT 3100 8498 3065 8490
3028 8490 2997 8502

$$

9-FOURNIER
A closer look at the tornado warnings. Columbus is in the line of fire.
1058. LargoFl
Quoting 1044. Sfloridacat5:



Yep, strong winds feeding into the system. It's 85 degrees here with a heat index around 90.
What happened to our cold weather? I guess we have to wait until Thursday/Friday for that.
yeah very humid here,feels like summertime...we are going to really feels those 40's morning temps comes Thursday-Friday..highs maybe touching 60...big change from mid 80's by me.
Great analogy by Levi about what is going on to his site. Hopefully all is fixed very soon. From his Twitter.

My website undergoing a Katrina-style eyewall replacement cycle. Down and out for a while, but will emerge much stronger.

Link
1060. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Another tornado warning has been issued.
The latest tornado warning is about 4 miles north of me, headed NE. I'm am hearing reports of trees down and some structure damage so this may be a real tornado. Had 47 mph wind gusts as the cell just skirted by me.
Quoting sar2401:
The latest tornado warning is about 4 miles north of, headed NE. I'm am hearing reports of trees down and some structure damage so this may be a real tornado. Had 47 mph wind gusts as the cell just skirted by me.


Stay alert. Sounds like it could be dangerous in your area.
1062. Drakoen
The Thanksgiving storm will be best along the I-81 corridor. That appears for now where the snow axis will set up. As you go towards I-95 things get dicier.
1063. LargoFl
1064. LargoFl
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC039-063-073-077-129-GAC087-201-253-232045-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0287.141123T1956Z-141123T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
256 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GADSDEN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BAINBRIDGE...
SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DONALSONVILLE...

* UNTIL 345 PM EST/245 PM CST/

* AT 254 PM EST/154 PM CST/...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STEAM MILL TO SNEADS TO JENSEN
PLACE TO WILLIS LANDING...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
BAINBRIDGE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 2997 8502 3003 8510 3027 8501 3044 8501
3047 8499 3048 8500 3058 8497 3060 8494
3061 8502 3100 8509 3100 8500 3108 8502
3110 8455 3066 8447 3028 8446 3001 8456
3001 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 269DEG 21KT 3100 8498 3065 8490
3028 8490 2997 8502

$$

9-FOURNIER
Quoting 1045. sar2401:

I take it you haven't been swamped by that 5" of rain then... :-)


No not yet. Melbourne did say most of the weather would be to our north today, but some storms are starting form with the heating. If I get 5 inches, I'll have to bust out the old beer can boat. :)
Quoting 1065. Naga5000:



No not yet. Melbourne did say most of the weather would be to our north today, but some storms are starting form with the heating. If I get 5 inches, I'll have to bust out the old beer can boat. :)


NWS Ruskin has a good inch+ QPF for the Tampa Bay area and 90% pops for Tuesday and Tuesday night, it won't be 5 inches but 1-2 inches is within reasonable possibility.
1067. sar2401
Quoting sar2401:
The latest tornado warning is about 4 miles north of me, headed NE. I'm am hearing reports of trees down and some structure damage so this may be a real tornado. Had 47 mph wind gusts as the cell just skirted by me.
The squall line has just moved east of me, which should end the severe threat, which is now shifting into western Georgia. I can't really tell if the damage was from straight line winds or a tornado but I suspect it's wind, since the reports are scattered and over a fairly large area. Now, if we can pick some more rain behind this squall line, I'll be a happy man.
The system is really starting to wrap itself up.
New severe thunderstorm warning for the Columbus area.
1070. LargoFl
1071. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
332 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...
EASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...
EASTERN MUSCOGEE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EST

* AT 332 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR CUSSETA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CUSSETA...UPATOI...NORTH FORT BENNING...EELBECK/WEST FORT
BENNING...BOX SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING AND JUNIPER.
1073. LargoFl
Winds just recently gusted to 41 mph in Columbus.
Tornado warning has been updated (east side of Columbus)
Quoting 983. Sfloridacat5:



I grew up in Washington D.C. and I only remember some snow flurries on Thanksgiving. I was surprised by the number of times it has snowed on or before Thanksgiving in DC.


WHITE THANKSGIVINGS IN D.C.

There has been 6 Thanksgivings with measureable snow on the ground in DC. But there has been 17 Thanksgivings if you count a trace of precipitation due to snow (basically snow flurries).


D.C.’s whitest Thanksgiving was in 1989: 1.9” of snow fell at DCA on Thanksgiving Day, on top of 1.6” that fell the previous day, Nov. 22. In second place, an inch of snow fell on Thanksgiving 1971. Perhaps most noteworthy is the 0.5” of snow that fell on Thanksgiving in 1938: the following day (Nov. 25), an additional 6.5” fell, making the combined total 7.2” of snow the second-highest November snowfall on record.

Link


I remember the 1971 and 1989 events. In the latter I drove to Richmond Wed. night and it was a very tough trip with plowable accumulations on I95 and traffic slowed to 15mph.

Quoting 1051. Sfloridacat5:

Don't forget north Florida should see another round of rain when the coastal low forms over Florida later in the week.
This will become the possible Eastcoast snow for Thanksgiving.




We will get some rain from that next event, but the heaviest rain for the next event should end up being further south in Central Florida on Tuesday.
Quoting Jedkins01:


We will get some rain from that next event, but the heaviest rain for the next event should end up being further south in Central Florida on Tuesday.


We have to wait for the next system down here. But we could get some heavy rain as you mentioned (I'm hoping).
Severe thunderstorm warnings canceled as thunderstorms weaken significantly, so much for an "an elevated risk than usual". This event has really been underachieving for this area. The models actually looked scary for the Tallahassee area last night.

Overall the models performed poorly for this area for this event, starting with yesterday where the the whole Tallahassee area had over an inch of rain from hours of rain when model guidance had only 20% precip probs for very light rain possible and not getting numerous until overnight into the morning. That part of the forecast definitely was dead wrong, and now the severe threat is turning out to much less than models had expected for this area. Currently the convective line doesn't even have lightning, much less deep convection capable of severe weather.

Looks like the only area that really got any thing dangerous from this is a narrow corridor in Alabama and Georgia.

With the forecast having been poor, I'm just glad we at least have already had a lot of much need rain. I just wish that we had seen stronger thunderstorms moving in, models really teased us, looked like it was going to be a crazy day with many warnings and powerful deep convection. Oh well, as I said, I'm to to at least get a lot of rain.
1080. barbamz
Spectacular sea fog blankets Sydney during heatwave (+photos)
Published: 7:05AM Monday November 24, 2014 Source: ONE News
The hottest November day ever recorded in New South Wales had fire crews on high alert yesterday.
In the west of the state temperatures reached a scorching 45.3 degrees. Bush fires were expected but didn't eventuate.
Sydney's CBD was blanketed in sea fog - a spectacular sight caused by the mixture of warm air plus a cool sea.


Australia swelters as heatwave blows into the southeast
13 hours ago November 23, 2014 6:26PM
MUCH of the nation sweltered today as a blistering heatwave moved southeast across the country into New South Wales after already baking Queensland and South Australia.
After a hot Friday — when it was 36C by 10am — the temperature soared to record highs in Sydney’s west. It hit 45.3 in Richmond, which broke the previous highest November temperature of 43.6C set in 1982, and 44.9 in Penrith, which is the highest recorded temperature at that weather station, said Rebecca Kamitakahara, of the Bureau of Meteorology.
Sydney itself was spared with a north-easterly sea breeze arriving earlier than expected. The top temperature was 30C — 5C below what was predicted.
TWC said strong tornado signature with debris signature sighted on radar.
Tornado that is east of Columbus.
1082. ncstorm
12z JMA

1083. Dakster
Quoting 1081. Sfloridacat5:

TWC said strong tornado signature with debris signature sighted on radar.


Where at?
Here's the updated tornado warning that has a debris signature associated with it (as reported by TWC).
Quoting Dakster:


Where at?


Comment #1084
The warning that's east of Columbus.
TORNADO WARNING GAC263-293-232130- /O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0019.141123T2101Z-141123T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 401 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... CENTRAL TALBOT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 430 PM EST * AT 400 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO DETECT A TORNADO ON RADAR THAT HAS SHOWN LOFTED DEBRIS. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER GENEVA...OR NEAR TALBOTTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TALBOTTON...JUNCTION CITY...GENEVA...PRATTSBURG...BALDWINVILLE...PO BIDDY CROSSROADS...PLEASANT HILL AND BIG LAZER CREEK WMA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT WILL BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA. && LAT...LON 3253 8462 3257 8464 3286 8451 3285 8436 3275 8428 3274 8429 3272 8434 3270 8434 3254 8455 3255 8455 3253 8457 TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 214DEG 42KT 3259 8459 $$
Wind will probably be the biggest issue. May impact the quality of the parade.

Quoting 1049. WaterWitch11:



would be cool to see the thanksgiving day parade with accents of snow. maybe not for them but visually speaking.
Tornado is no longer showing a debris signature, but the cell still shows tight rotation along a kink in the line and could still have a tornado with it.
They said its had an on and off debris ball with the cell.
Reports of trees down (one on a house) along with debris, but no structures at this time.
Quoting 1079. Jedkins01:

Severe thunderstorm warnings canceled as thunderstorms weaken significantly, so much for an "an elevated risk than usual". This event has really been underachieving for this area. The models actually looked scary for the Tallahassee area last night.

Overall the models performed poorly for this area for this event, starting with yesterday where the the whole Tallahassee area had over an inch of rain from hours of rain when model guidance had only 20% precip probs for very light rain possible and not getting numerous until overnight into the morning. That part of the forecast definitely was dead wrong, and now the severe threat is turning out to much less than models had expected for this area. Currently the convective line doesn't even have lightning, much less deep convection capable of severe weather.

Looks like the only area that really got any thing dangerous from this is a narrow corridor in Alabama and Georgia.

With the forecast having been poor, I'm just glad we at least have already had a lot of much need rain. I just wish that we had seen stronger thunderstorms moving in, models really teased us, looked like it was going to be a crazy day with many warnings and powerful deep convection. Oh well, as I said, I'm to to at least get a lot of rain.


Considering the spc talked about this as early as Tuesday as well as there being a potent shortwave, the whole thing was hyped. There was a lot of initial convection keeping down instability and the vertical shear wasn't all that great. Then again, save for the pilger twin tornadoes, this year really wasn't all that impressive tornado-wise.
Quoting 1088. Sfloridacat5:

Tornado is no longer showing a debris signature, but the cell still shows tight rotation along a kink in the line and could still have a tornado with it.
They said its had an on and off debris ball with the cell.
Reports of trees down (one on a house) along with debris, but no structures at this time.


It probably hit Talbotton. Hope everyone's ok.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 413 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 GAC263-293-232130- /O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-141123T2130Z/ UPSON GA-TALBOT GA- 413 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST FOR CENTRAL UPSON AND CENTRAL TALBOT COUNTIES... AT 411 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO DETECT A TORNADO THAT HAS LOFTED DEBRIS FROM CAUSING PREVIOUS DAMAGE. THIS DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER TALBOTTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TALBOTTON...PRATTSBURG...BIG LAZER CREEK WMA...BALDWINVILLE...PO BIDDY CROSSROADS AND PLEASANT HILL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA. && LAT...LON 3264 8453 3273 8457 3286 8451 3285 8436 3275 8428 3274 8429 3272 8434 3270 8434 3264 8442 TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 214DEG 42KT 3270 8450 $$
1091. barbamz
Guess, today I'm the heatwave reporter, lol. Somehow translated from Italian:

Winter is far away: exceptional heat between Spain, France and Italy
Exceptional heat for the period on the western Mediterranean and the Bay of Biscay.
Meteo Giornale, 23-11-2014 ore 20:41
In Spain today, November 23, temperatures were still rising compared to those already very high on Saturday: 29C in Pollenca, 27.1 C and 27 C in Calvia in Palma de Mallorca, all in the Balearic Islands; 26.9C in San Sebastian in the Basque Country; 26.7C in Velez-Malaga in Andalusia.
In Italy Sardinia was on the shields: 27.6C in Alghero, 27C at Capo Caccia. Alghero went to two tenths from the monthly record, Capo Caccia has even beaten, even more remarkable if we think that we are now at the end of the month.
France is not far behind with 26.8C in Socoa, 25.3C in Biarritz and Tarbes, 24.5C in Pau.

A hundred European cities today have exceeded the threshold of 20 degrees.



29C = 84,2F; 20C = 68F

The heat from the Sahara is advected by the cut-off low at the tail of front "Vanja":




Saved loop. Source.
(See as well post #997)

Quoting 1091. barbamz:

Guess, today I'm the heatwave reporter, lol. Somehow translated from Italian:

Winter is far away: exceptional heat between Spain, France and Italy
Exceptional heat for the period on the western Mediterranean and the Bay of Biscay.
Meteo Giornale, 23-11-2014 ore 20:41
In Spain today, November 23, temperatures were still rising compared to those already very high on Saturday: 29 ° C in Pollença, 27.1 ° C and 27 ° C in Calvia in Palma de Mallorca, all in the Balearic Islands; 26.9 ° C in San Sebastian in the Basque Country; 26.7 ° C in Velez-Malaga in Andalusia.
In Italy Sardinia was on the shields: 27.6 ° C in Alghero, 27 ° C at Capo Caccia. Alghero went to two tenths from the monthly record, Capo Caccia has even beaten, even more remarkable if we think that we are now at the end of the month.
France is not far behind with 26.8 ° C in Socoa, 25.3 ° C in Biarritz and Tarbes, 24.5 ° C in Pau.

A hundred European cities today have exceeded the threshold of 20 degrees.

29C= 84,2F

The heat from the Sahara is advected by the cut-off low at the tail of front "Vanja":








Well, there are some storms here in 'murica, but in the form of a squall line and nowhere near as bad as they initially forecast it to be.
Tornado warning has been extended to the NE.
TORNADO WARNING GAC171-231-293-232145- /O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0020.141123T2123Z-141123T2145Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 423 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 445 PM EST * AT 422 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO DETECT A TORNADO THAT HAS A LONG HISTORY OF SHOWING DEBRIS ON RADAR. THIS DANGEROUS STORM IS NEAR LINCOLN PARK...OR NEAR THOMASTON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THOMASTON...BARNESVILLE...MILNER...YATESVILLE...ME ANSVILLE... ALDORA...THE ROCK...SUNSET VILLAGE...LINCOLN PARK...REDBONE... ATWATER...SUNNYSIDE...JOHNSTONVILLE...HANNAHS MILL...GOGGINS... REDBONE CROSSROADS...PIEDMONT AND LIBERTY HILL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT WILL BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA. && LAT...LON 3317 8427 3317 8404 3297 8404 3293 8410 3293 8412 3291 8412 3279 8431 3278 8438 3283 8441 3284 8444 TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 214DEG 42KT 3284 8438 $$
Two storms with rotation according to TWC.
"Maybe a debris ball." Tornado wrapped in rain.

New tornado warning added.

1096. barbamz
Quoting 1092. TimTheWxMan:



Well, there are some storms here in 'murica, but in the form of a squall line and nowhere near as bad as they initially forecast it to be.


Oh my, you guys give me headache, sometimes :-) First I thought, you were right now in Murcia/Spain, because you were responding to a post about current weather in Spain. But to be on the safe side, I tried to look it up (I don't dare to quote the finding). Always something new for me to learn on WU, lol. My English is improving so much ;-)
Tornado warnings have been extended.
1098. barbamz
Quoting 1097. Sfloridacat5:

Tornado warnings have been extended.


Some live report here: http://www.13wmaz.com/videos/news/local/2013/11/1 2/3455451/

Another one: http://www.wsbtv.com/s/news/live/?ecmp=ajc_social _twitter_2014_sfp
Quoting 1043. ncstorm:

1-95 with speeds of 75 mph and over with more than the usual amount of travelers plus add on rain with wet roads is still not the best of conditions..

lets HOPE people slow down and drive with caution..as someone who has travels 95 South every year since my existence on Thanksgiving I doubt that will happen..I have seen some awful accidents coming and going..


How bad is the traffic on 95 coming north from Florida? I'll be there this weekend.
1100. vis0
where is the potential energy going to dev

CREDIT::Meteo + CA,US
Quoting 1096. barbamz:



Oh my, you guys give me headache, sometimes :-) First I thought, you were right now in Murcia/Spain, because you were responding to a post about current weather in Spain. But to be on the safe side, I tried to look it up (I don't dare to quote the finding). Always something new for me to learn on WU, lol. My English is improving so much ;-)


Haha naw, I've never been to Spain or have i ever been outside the U.S. Yeah, some people tend to say 'murica instead of america. XD
Quoting barbamz:


Some live report here: http://www.13wmaz.com/videos/news/local/2013/11/1 2/3455451/

Another one: http://www.wsbtv.com/s/news/live/?ecmp=ajc_social _twitter_2014_sfp


Scary stuff.
Long track tornado with history of debris ball, trees down, power lines down, etc.

Possible long-track tornado.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 500 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 GAC035-151-171-255-232215- /O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141123T2215Z/ BUTTS GA-SPALDING GA-LAMAR GA-HENRY GA- 500 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EST FOR CENTRAL BUTTS...EASTERN SPALDING...NORTHEASTERN LAMAR AND SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES... AT 458 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO DETECT A LONG TRACKED AND DANGEROUS TORNADO THAT HAS A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE DEBRIS ON RADAR. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOCUST GROVE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF JACKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MCDONOUGH...JACKSON...LOCUST GROVE...JENKINSBURG...WORTHVILLE... MCKIBBEN...CHAPPEL MILL...OLA AND FINCHERVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA. && LAT...LON 3348 8414 3348 8396 3338 8388 3320 8402 3320 8404 3318 8404 3317 8409 3319 8416 3324 8416 TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 206DEG 50KT 3330 8409 $$
Northern tornado warning looks like it's weakening. Rotation doesn't look as strong.
Large severe thunderstorm warning box added.

1106. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
510 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-240100-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
510 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.NOW...

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 20 MPH FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO THE ORLANDO AREA THEN BEGIN A NORTH NORTHEAST MOTION
ONCE THEY ARE NORTH OF THE ORLANDO AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ESPECIALLY WEST OF ORLANDO AND SANFORD.
LARGE LONG PERIOD EASTERLY WAVES IMPACTING THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST AND BEACHES WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND
POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION AS THE TIDE CONTINUES TO RISE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND REACHES HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 0830 PM THIS
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND SEAS 7 TO
9 FEET FROM A FEW MILES OFF THE BEACH TO 60 MILES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
Thanks for the welcome, Barefoot -- I wandered around here chasing the ghost of Nuri, and indeed, don't know the inhabitants or customs well. The keypost, however, I am close to. In retrospect, I did offer up just a bunch of words. Forget what we could DO with a "measuring rod" written on stone, my first point was simply that that beats writing upon water.

At a chip fab, we fashion components with near nano-scale precision. First step upon fashioning a smoothed slab disk of silicon, consists of burning a set of four corners or "Fiduciaries," so everyone thereafter knows where they are, nearly to the nearest atom. Or, take Honda. When they conjure a new model, step one consists of defining the coordinate Origin as the forward center of the steering shaft. Our contemplation of WHAT to do with the conundrum, follows from a mature assessment which requires disentangling myriad influences from within quite a non-linear swill.

I used to count blackjack cards and live with the wondrous beauty of the Tahoe Basin. Some nights the deck would run with you for hours, and abruptly, “the worm would turn.”

President Carter was an electric study, when he came to town. When Frank Press, his science advisor, handed him that Academy Study (Charney) in 1979 (setting up those CO2 goal posts which have not moved a whit since, despite that we were six years from nailing Pleistocene causality, and pre-Ramanathan, had no real clue any of this would become relevant within our lifetimes), he is reputed (by double-hearsay) to have told him,
“Sir, you may be here two terms, or you may be here but another year. I may serve here with you, or I might get run over in a cross-walk tomorrow. About some things we cannot be sure. I am certain however, I will never hand you a more important document.” I currently believe he made perhaps the most consequential decision in the history of all the world (incorrectly), but hey, how many Presidents could do differential equations?
The blog is boring and dead right now..Well (clears throat) according to mount Sterling if the storm over performs:

The most likely.
Tornado warnings continue - extended further to the NE.
Quoting 1107. DavidPeters:

Thanks for the welcome, Barefoot -- I wandered around here chasing the ghost of Nuri, and indeed, don't know the inhabitants or customs well. The keypost, however, I am close to. In retrospect, I did offer up just a bunch of words. Forget what we could DO with a "measuring rod" written on stone, my first point was simply that that beats writing upon water.

At a chip fab, we fashion components with near nano-scale precision. First step upon fashioning a smoothed slab disk of silicon, consists of burning a set of four corners or "Fiduciaries," so everyone thereafter knows where they are, nearly to the nearest atom. Or, take Honda. When they conjure a new model, step one consists of defining the coordinate Origin as the forward center of the steering shaft. Our contemplation of WHAT to do with the conundrum, follows from a mature assessment which requires disentangling myriad influences from within quite a non-linear swill.

I used to count blackjack cards and live with the wondrous beauty of the Tahoe Basin. Some nights the deck would run with you for hours, and abruptly, “the worm would turn.”

President Carter was an electric study, when he came to town. When Frank Press, his science advisor, handed him that Academy Study (Charney) in 1979 (setting up those CO2 goal posts which have not moved a whit since, despite that we were six years from nailing Pleistocene causality, and pre-Ramanathan, had no real clue any of this would become relevant within our lifetimes), he is reputed (by double-hearsay) to have told him,
“Sir, you may be here two terms, or you may be here but another year. I may serve here with you, or I might get run over in a cross-walk tomorrow. About some things we cannot be sure. I am certain however, I will never hand you a more important document.” I currently believe he made perhaps the most consequential decision in the history of all the world (incorrectly), but hey, how many Presidents could do differential equations?



Welcome to the blog. Wait, does this mean I'm no longer the "new guy" on WU? Yes! XD
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 526 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 GAC159-211-217-297-232245- /O.CON.KFFC.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-141123T2245Z/ JASPER GA-NEWTON GA-WALTON GA-MORGAN GA- 526 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EST FOR NORTHWESTERN JASPER...EASTERN NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN WALTON AND NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES... AT 525 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO DETECT A TORNADO WITH A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND LOFTING DEBRIS ON RADAR. THIS DANGEROUS STORM IS LOCATED OVER MANSFIELD...OR NEAR COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. IT LOOKS TO CROSS INTERSTATE 20 NEAR BRICK STORE. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COVINGTON...SOCIAL CIRCLE...RUTLEDGE...NEWBORN...MANSFIELD... JERSEY...STARRSVILLE...HARD LABOR CREEK STATE PARK...BRICK STORE... HERNDONVILLE AND EBENEZER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 OR TWEET US YOUR REPORT AT NWSATLANTA. && LAT...LON 3375 8357 3362 8349 3343 8376 3349 8391 3373 8380 TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 218DEG 51KT 3353 8378 $$
1113. vis0
CREDIT::MS

actual dimen::764x724
http://youtu.be/8keZxATCsNY

Pouring here again, over 3 inches of rain so far in the gauge since yesterday, man its really been all or nothing with rain events here the past few months.
We're currently down to one tornado warning crossing I20.
Dr. Forbes stated that he believes the biggest threat is in eastern Georgia into SE South Carolina.
He thinks the Tornado watch needs to be adjusted to include those areas.
Should probably include parts of South Carolina as stated by Dr. Forbes.

Currently no tornado warnings, just a long Severe Thunderstom Warning. I still think we'll see additional tornado warnings this evening.
Those individual cells firing off and moving into S.E. South Carolina really need to be watched.
1118. Dakster
Quoting 1110. washingtonian115:

.


The way things are looking you are going to have a white xmas and I am not...
Quoting 1115. Sfloridacat5:
We're currently down to one tornado warning crossing I20.
Dr. Forbes stated that he believes the biggest threat is in eastern Georgia into SE South Carolina.
He thinks the Tornado watch needs to be adjusted to include those areas.


Naa, severe threat will be quickly decreasing for the rest of this evening. It's dark and it's late November.
Strong storms forming across across most of South Carolina.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:01 PM PST on November 23, 2014
Clear
72.2 °F / 22.3 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 73 °F / 23 °C
Humidity: 9%
Dew Point: 10 °F / -12 °C

Wind: 24.0 mph / 38.6 km/h / 10.7 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 24.0 mph / 38.6 km/h / 10.3 m/s
Pressure: 30.05 in / 1018 hPa (Rising)
Made the forecast, back in the 70's
High was 73.3F here, Low was 54.4F
Quoting Chucktown:


Naa, severe threat will be quickly decreasing for the rest of this evening. It's dark and it's late November.


Hope so. Most of the tornado warnings were issued in relatively cool air. Columbus for example never got out of the 60s today. That's usually a little cool for tornadoes.
Some of the warnings just south of Atlanta were in really cool air.

But Dr. Forbes stated that the cells were rotating due to the shear associated with the warm front (southerly winds converging with Northeastly winds).


412 – Hi Paul. Thanks for responding, and for the Azimuth tip. I’m just finishing Dr. Archer’s MOOC course (U. of Chicago). He has a ton of models you can access. Sounds as if that might be up your alley. I did my term writing on 2012 & corn stress, and found the Underground’s resources the best for sleuthing out the precise miscreants behind the 1/8th hit our crop took. Dr. Masters posted a guest piece by Michael Vincent last spring that knocked me out. I cannot figure Dr. Curry out. I really slammed her, my last comment a couple months back, but politely. I admire her energy. Just have not had enough “Warmin time” to be back.
Quoting 1121. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:01 PM PST on November 23, 2014
Clear
72.2 °F / 22.3 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 73 °F / 23 °C
Humidity: 9%
Dew Point: 10 °F / -12 °C

Wind: 24.0 mph / 38.6 km/h / 10.7 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 24.0 mph / 38.6 km/h / 10.3 m/s
Pressure: 30.05 in / 1018 hPa (Rising)
Made the forecast, back in the 70's
High was 73.3F here, Low was 54.4F


Santa Ana without the insane winds?
Quoting 1118. Dakster:



The way things are looking you are going to have a white xmas and I am not...
With the way last winter was going we had a snow event every 2 to 2 and half weeks..Could we possibly see snow sometime in mid December?.It's possible.
Quoting 1122. Sfloridacat5:


Hope so. Most of the tornado warnings were issued in relatively cool air. Columbus for example never got out of the 60s today. That's usually a little cool for tornadoes.
Some of the warnings just south of Atlanta were in really cool air.

But Dr. Forbes stated that the cells were rotating due to the shear associated with the warm front (southerly winds converging with Northeastly winds).




It's a cool season tornado set up. Low CAPE/high shear, you don't need temps in the 80s to produce a few, but most are weak and short lived in this environment. I think there has only been one report of a damaging tornado today.
Quoting 1124. jeffs713:



Santa Ana without the insane winds?

Just not here. It is very quiet right now, they will be back.
1128. Dakster
Quoting 1125. washingtonian115:

With the way last winter was going we had a snow event every 2 to 2 and half weeks..Could we possibly see snow sometime in mid December?.It's possible.


Still snow free in Anchorage and even if it did snow it would be gone the next day. Although temps on Weds. should be in the single digits with a high in the 20s. But then they rebound back up and we will probably see 40s again.

Granted, I don't want 7 feet of snow overnight or temps in the below zero range.
SCENARIO A: OUR GOOSE IS COOKED. An area of low pressure develops in the northern Gulf and moves along the East coast, bringing Gulf moisture while drawing in Atlantic moisture. The system would tap cold air from a snow-cover influenced surface high in western PA/NY.

This track would hug the shoreline, bringing heavy rain and tidal flooding to coastal communities and heavy snow in the interior.
As temperatures fall into the 30s through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, rain would change to snow in the major cities and continue heavy overnight, producing a major snowfall to a majority of the Northeastern states.
Quoting 1121. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:01 PM PST on November 23, 2014
Clear
72.2 °F / 22.3 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 73 °F / 23 °C
Humidity: 9%
Dew Point: 10 °F / -12 °C

Wind: 24.0 mph / 38.6 km/h / 10.7 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 24.0 mph / 38.6 km/h / 10.3 m/s
Pressure: 30.05 in / 1018 hPa (Rising)
Made the forecast, back in the 70's
High was 73.3F here, Low was 54.4F


Why does it say a heat index of 73? A heat index normally isn't even displayed at 73, but with 9% RH and a 10 dewpoint, the feels like temp would be a lot cooler, more like 60's, not a degree warmer.

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG CRAWFORD 32.46N 85.19W
11/23/2014 RUSSELL AL PUBLIC

DAMAGE TO A METAL BUILDING AND TREE LIMBS DOWN IN
CRAWFORD NEAR HWY 80. POSSIBLE TORNADO. PER SOCIAL MEDIA.
1132. barbamz
Our blogger Plazared, living near the coast in southwestern Spain, should experience a rainy and stormy night right now. Here a saved loop of recent radar pics, showing the landfall of the little vortex I've watched for some days (earlier over the Canary Islands and providing a lot of rain for Morocco as well) at Huelva/Spain (Edit: or a bit more to the East? Hard to tell). Well, if this would have happened a bit earlier in the season with more conducive conditions for development, we might have had another of those (still) rare European landfalls of a tropical cyclone ...


Source for updates.

Here is a detailed loop with some more frames. You can see the little eye moving onshore in the last frames.

All the best for your weather with tornadoes and blizzards over there and a good night.

Edit (see below #1145):
'At least 8 dead, 24 missing' in Morocco storms
23 November 2014 | 22:17 | FOCUS News Agency

There were possible tornadoes in LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE BARBOUR, AL & CRAWFORD, AL. LEFLORE, MS Had downed power lines. 54mph winds in PIKE, KY. 61mph in HYDABURG, AK. Numerous powerlines down county wide around TWIGGS, GA. Actually trees are falling all over the Peachtree GA NWS area.. Trees also fell down & assaulted cars and buildings in Southern GA & AL area near Tally.
1134. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Hope so. Most of the tornado warnings were issued in relatively cool air. Columbus for example never got out of the 60s today. That's usually a little cool for tornadoes.
Some of the warnings just south of Atlanta were in really cool air.

But Dr. Forbes stated that the cells were rotating due to the shear associated with the warm front (southerly winds converging with Northeastly winds).


The storms are all done in SE Alabama. I ended up with 1.66" total, so that;s'v very respectable, even if wasn't the 2" to 3" we were supposed to get. I don't believe we had any tornadoes, but we had very strong gravity wave winds as the front passed, which I think is responsible for the tree damage reported. As I had been saying for days, the models weren't handling the dynamics of this system well. The warm front didn't advance as quickly as forecast and the wedge of high pressure that covered eastern AL hung on longer than expected. Combined with the rain yesterday. the effect was to make the atmosphere too stable so, even with lots of shear, we didn't have an outbreak of severe storms or tornadoes. The low, which impressively deepened, also moved NE like an express train, taking the best dynamics with it. I thought Texas and the Panhandle would end up with the most rain, and that seems to the case. What I was wrong about was widespread convection in the Panhandle. The only convection that did develop was elevated, and it wasn't enough to cut me off from the Gulf flow. That worked to my advantage, and I finally got a decent shot of rain.
1135. bwi
Just checked in for the first time since Friday. 18z GFS looks right nasty for DC on Wednesday, whether we're in the rain section or the slop.

Props to Drakoen for calling the Miller A setup several days ago.
Quoting 1107. DavidPeters:

Thanks for the welcome, Barefoot -- I wandered around here chasing the ghost of Nuri, and indeed, don't know the inhabitants or customs well. The keypost, however, I am close to. In retrospect, I did offer up just a bunch of words. Forget what we could DO with a "measuring rod" written on stone, my first point was simply that that beats writing upon water.

At a chip fab, we fashion components with near nano-scale precision. First step upon fashioning a smoothed slab disk of silicon, consists of burning a set of four corners or "Fiduciaries," so everyone thereafter knows where they are, nearly to the nearest atom. Or, take Honda. When they conjure a new model, step one consists of defining the coordinate Origin as the forward center of the steering shaft. Our contemplation of WHAT to do with the conundrum, follows from a mature assessment which requires disentangling myriad influences from within quite a non-linear swill.

I used to count blackjack cards and live with the wondrous beauty of the Tahoe Basin. Some nights the deck would run with you for hours, and abruptly, %u201Cthe worm would turn.%u201D

President Carter was an electric study, when he came to town. When Frank Press, his science advisor, handed him that Academy Study (Charney) in 1979 (setting up those CO2 goal posts which have not moved a whit since, despite that we were six years from nailing Pleistocene causality, and pre-Ramanathan, had no real clue any of this would become relevant within our lifetimes), he is reputed (by double-hearsay) to have told him,
"Sir, you may be here two terms, or you may be here but another year. I may serve here with you, or I might get run over in a cross-walk tomorrow. About some things we cannot be sure. I am certain however, I will never hand you a more important document." I currently believe he made perhaps the most consequential decision in the history of all the world (incorrectly), but hey, how many Presidents could do differential equations?

Thanks for the comeback. Nuri and remnants, an interesting system to follow for someone who pays attention to fronts and the mesoscale weather they cause. wu blogs can be a fun and informative community. You might want to check out the member blogs. Have you discovered those?

I understand and understood worm turning. In your context here, many would call the worm turn a change of luck. Luck, though, I am not sure I believe in.

So, the scientist said, "Sir, you may be here two terms, or you may be here but another year. I may serve here with you, or I might get run over in a cross-walk tomorrow. About some things we cannot be sure. I am certain however, I will never hand you a more important document."

Do you know what Jimmy Carter did with the report? Are you saying we missed carbon dioxide as a culprit back when greenhouse gas theory was relatively new to the human consciousness?

I remember the late 60s and 1970s well and recall not being able to see the color of a stoplight when stopped at a signal in the L.A. basin. Back then sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide were under scrutiny. And then we had fluorocarbons in hair spray and other aerosols that affected the ozone. The U.S. acted upon these, especially California where "air pollution" is not what it once was.

Do you know if the report you mention is available to read on the net? I don't remember if you linked it in your earlier comment. I will go back and look.
Ps. Nevermind. To many comments to look back.
1137. auburn
Quoting 1133. Skyepony:


There were possible tornadoes in LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE BARBOUR, AL & CRAWFORD, AL. LEFLORE, MS Had downed power lines. 54mph winds in PIKE, KY. 61mph in HYDABURG, AK. Numerous powerlines down county wide around TWIGGS, GA. Actually trees are falling all over the Peachtree GA NWS area.. Trees also fell down & assaulted cars and buildings in Southern GA & AL area near Tally.



All in my area..
1138. Grothar
Evacuation Plans Readied as Buffalo Flooding Looms

BUFFALO, N.Y. — Nov 23, 2014, 4:41 PM ET
By MICHAEL HILL Associated Press



First came the big storm, then the big dig. Now comes the big melt.

Residents of flood-prone areas around Buffalo should move valuables up from the basement, pack a bag and prepare for the possibility of evacuation as up to 7 feet of melting snow posed the threat of flooding, Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned Sunday.

"Err on the side of caution," Cuomo said at a news conference in Cheektowaga. "You prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and that's what we're doing."

Across the Buffalo region ? where rising temperatures were expected to approach 60 degrees on Monday ? people took that advice to heart.

In Hamburg, Pete Yeskoot bought a portable generator to make sure his sump pump will keep working once the roughly 80 inches of snow that fell on his property melts. Possessions are up on blocks in the basement and he has food for several days.

"Behind us is an 18-mile creek so everything in the village will come through us at some point, so we have to get ready for the possibility of flooding," he said. "And given all this snow, we have to expect that this is real."

Rain fell Sunday, with temperatures rising to 50. It was expected to be even warmer Monday, accompanied by more rain and rising winds, leading to the threat of toppled trees and power outages.
Looks south of me, but I certainly have an eye on all of this. Thanks.

My dogs and cats are acting strangely and aggressively since around suppertime. Hope they don't know something I don't.



Quoting 1116. Sfloridacat5:

Should probably include parts of South Carolina as stated by Dr. Forbes.


I know that area well. I spent last spring in that part of S.E. SC cleaning up after the ice storms.

Quoting 1117. Sfloridacat5:

Currently no tornado warnings, just a long Severe Thunderstom Warning. I still think we'll see additional tornado warnings this evening.
Those individual cells firing off and moving into S.E. South Carolina really need to be watched.

Once you get the snowcover on the ground, you can kiss those 40's goodbye. ;-)

Quoting 1128. Dakster:



Still snow free in Anchorage and even if it did snow it would be gone the next day. Although temps on Weds. should be in the single digits with a high in the 20s. But then they rebound back up and we will probably see 40s again.

Granted, I don't want 7 feet of snow overnight or temps in the below zero range.
Quoting 1130. Jedkins01:



Why does it say a heat index of 73? A heat index normally isn't even displayed at 73, but with 9% RH and a 10 dewpoint, the feels like temp would be a lot cooler, more like 60's, not a degree warmer.




Should be 70F according to this Heat Index Calculator
It's good to see that they are taking the potential threat seriously. Let's hope for a good outcome.

"Err on the side of caution," Cuomo said at a news conference in Cheektowaga. "You prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and that's what we're doing."

Quoting 1138. Grothar:

Evacuation Plans Readied as Buffalo Flooding Looms

BUFFALO, N.Y. — Nov 23, 2014, 4:41 PM ET
By MICHAEL HILL Associated Press



First came the big storm, then the big dig. Now comes the big melt.

Residents of flood-prone areas around Buffalo should move valuables up from the basement, pack a bag and prepare for the possibility of evacuation as up to 7 feet of melting snow posed the threat of flooding, Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned Sunday.

"Err on the side of caution," Cuomo said at a news conference in Cheektowaga. "You prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and that's what we're doing."

Across the Buffalo region ? where rising temperatures were expected to approach 60 degrees on Monday ? people took that advice to heart.

In Hamburg, Pete Yeskoot bought a portable generator to make sure his sump pump will keep working once the roughly 80 inches of snow that fell on his property melts. Possessions are up on blocks in the basement and he has food for several days.

"Behind us is an 18-mile creek so everything in the village will come through us at some point, so we have to get ready for the possibility of flooding," he said. "And given all this snow, we have to expect that this is real."

Rain fell Sunday, with temperatures rising to 50. It was expected to be even warmer Monday, accompanied by more rain and rising winds, leading to the threat of toppled trees and power outages.
1144. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:

There were possible tornadoes in LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE BARBOUR, AL & CRAWFORD, AL. LEFLORE, MS Had downed power lines. 54mph winds in PIKE, KY. 61mph in HYDABURG, AK. Numerous powerlines down county wide around TWIGGS, GA. Actually trees are falling all over the Peachtree GA NWS area.. Trees also fell down & assaulted cars and buildings in Southern GA & AL area near Tally.
No tornado at Lakepoint Park. I live about four miles from the park. Apparently a woman reported seeing a tornado but there were no further reports of a tornado sighting. The police and fire departments plus two of our Skywarn spotters checked the entire area thoroughly and could find no damage except for a few tree limbs down. The gravity wave winds seemed to get a lot stronger at they moved NE into Russell County, the county north of me. They had much more extensive tree damage and power outages due to falling limbs.
1145. barbamz
Last call for tonight with bad news as an addition to post #1132 (and several others somewhere earlier):

'At least 8 dead, 24 missing' in Morocco storms
23 November 2014 | 22:17 | FOCUS News Agency
Rabat. At least eight people were killed and 24 were missing as heavy storms lashed southern Morocco, causing flash floods, the authorities said on Sunday, as quoted by AFP.
It said the "exceptional" storms swept across the regions of Guelmim, Agadir, Ouarzazate and Marrakesh, and a search was under way for the missing.
The Arabic-language dailies Al Massae and Al Ahdath gave death tolls of 16 and 22 dead respectively.
Some 130 all-terrain rescue vehicles and 335 Zodiac inflatables and other boats were being used, the interior ministry said, in a statement carried by the North African country's MAP news agency.
The national weather service warned that an alert over more heavy rainfall would remain in place until midday on Monday.
A flash flood near Guelmim, 200 kilometres (125 miles) south of Agadir, killed six people including a nine-year-old girl and left 24 missing, MAP cited a ministerial source as saying.
It said around 100 mud-brick homes were partly or totally destroyed in the south, and 100 roads cut off, including six national highways.
Flash floods are common in Morocco, where four children drowned in the south in September when they were swept away.
1146. ncstorm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240021Z - 240145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BRIEF TORNADO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISKS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SAVANNAH VALLEY. CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WITH CONCERN FOR A SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR
TWO TRACKING TOWARDS COASTAL SC.

DISCUSSION...A DISCRETE STORM NEAR THE LONG/WAYNE COUNTY BORDER IN
GA HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED IN MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO FURTHER INTENSIFY GIVEN ITS STORM MODE ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE VEERED IN TIME-SERIES OF CLX VWP DATA...0-1 KM SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT. THIS VERY STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAY
YIELD MULTIPLE HOURS OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...SUPPORTED BY 23Z HRRR
GUIDANCE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS/HART.. 11/24/2014


ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...

LAT...LON 32158216 32498184 32958139 33578054 33817991 33657963
33337960 32727995 31808117 31508153 31438181 31448203
31538216 32158216
63/73 today with 1.89" of rain in the home gauge. The rain was moderate to heavy for several hours with no thunder. Storms approaching and some distant lightning well to the north (although not to the west, which is odd)

Creeping ever so close to me. Pouring here now. Warm 65F, strong SE winds.

Interesting night.

Quoting 1146. ncstorm:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240021Z - 240145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BRIEF TORNADO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISKS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SAVANNAH VALLEY. CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WITH CONCERN FOR A SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR
TWO TRACKING TOWARDS COASTAL SC.

DISCUSSION...A DISCRETE STORM NEAR THE LONG/WAYNE COUNTY BORDER IN
GA HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED IN MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY ALONG WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. THIS STORM APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO FURTHER INTENSIFY GIVEN ITS STORM MODE ON THE NRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE VEERED IN TIME-SERIES OF CLX VWP DATA...0-1 KM SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT. THIS VERY STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAY
YIELD MULTIPLE HOURS OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...SUPPORTED BY 23Z HRRR
GUIDANCE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS/HART.. 11/24/2014


ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...

LAT...LON 32158216 32498184 32958139 33578054 33817991 33657963
33337960 32727995 31808117 31508153 31438181 31448203
31538216 32158216
I'm in Charlotte this week, where it's been pouring down rain since last night. Definitely what our entire state needed after drought conditions began to spread earlier this month.
1150. hydrus
1151. hydrus
Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang
7:54 PM EST
Interesting discussion from WPC this afternoon. The following snippet contains some buzz words that we don't normally hear around here until the Jan-Feb timeframe:

...ALLOW SNOWS IN THE WASHINGTON DC TO
PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK CITY METRO AREAS. SNOW OCCURS WITHIN
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION/DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE. THE HIGH MAGNITUDE OF THE FRONTOGENESIS COULD LEAD
TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A COUPLED JET REGION INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
Yikes!
What is this?.
1154. ncstorm
Tornado Watch..

Wow, slow blog ehh?

After Tuesday, looks like weather along the Gulf Coast couldn't be more uneventful.

Around here, December seems to be a little uneventful at times. I'm anxious about what the dead of winter will bring.
Quoting 1153. washingtonian115:

What is this?.


A brief period of warmth before it turns cold again.
Out of the 7-8 feet that fell all across southern Buffolo, Only 3 feet should remain after Monday. Once the cold air sets back in, the snow pack willget as hard as ice. Plus the streets will be skating rings due to refreezing of snowmelt water puddles. And to top that off, another LES event should start around Thanksgiving/Black Friday(yet thankfully, it won't be as persistent).
A thundery atmosphere for watching The Walking Dead.

Quoting 1155. opal92nwf:

Wow, slow blog ehh?

After Tuesday, looks like weather along the Gulf Coast couldn't be more uneventful.

Around here, December seems to be a little uneventful at times. I'm anxious about what the dead of winter will bring.


There was the Christmas outbreak of 2012 and southern Illinois had its first ever blizzard warning at the same time.
Quoting 1158. DonnieBwkGA:

A thundery atmosphere for watching The Walking Dead.




It's on right now and it's gonna get real! You know it does take place in Georgia but when do they go to D.C.? XD
Rain continues in Central Illinois with .43 inches in my gauge since it started just after 1 this afternoon .. Starting to get foggy in lower lying areas and expect it to get worse as the temperature drops over night ..
.
Quoting 1147. DonnieBwkGA:

63/73 today with 1.89" of rain in the home gauge. The rain was moderate to heavy for several hours with no thunder. Storms approaching and some distant lightning well to the north (although not to the west, which is odd)






I haven't gotten an actual measurement yet but it looks like we may have had not far shy of 4 inches since yesterday, we had a bout 1.05 yesterday and what looks like about 2.5-2.75 in gauge today.
Winds coming sporadically out of the east in Kings Grant, I'm sure we'll be under a tornado watch later especially if Charleston is.

God Odell Beckham Jr win or lose that was a catch if catches.
Quoting 1165. win1gamegiantsplease:

Winds coming sporadically out of the east in Kings Grant, I'm sure we'll be under a tornado watch later especially if Charleston is.

God Odell Beckham Jr win or lose that was a catch if catches.

I saw that catch, that was awesome, one handed with a guy interfering with him the whole time.
And he's a rookie...
Camden-CapitalWeatherGang
9:23 PM EST
This storm does have serious potential... a need... for "nowcasting" and seeing how the storm is behaving DURING the storm. Modifications may have to be made, etc, even during the storm. You may be on to something with that 6-8hr prior to onset too. It could take until that close to the start of the storm to get a decent fix on what will happen.

So basically.."we don't know what the hell will happen"
Quoting 1166. PedleyCA:


I saw that catch, that was awesome, one handed with a guy interfering with him the whole time.
And he's a rookie...


Not only is he a rookie but he didn't start until the Atlanta game circa week 5 due to injury.
CapitalWeatherGang

9:45 p.m. update: We’re becoming increasingly confident there will be a major East Coast storm on Wednesday and it seems unlikely the storm is going out to sea (though still a slight possibility). How much rain versus how much snow falls and where is still very difficult to say, but we will try to provide more specifics in our coverage throughout the day Monday. Models suggest solutions ranging from bare ground (rain and/or non-accumulating snow) to a substantial accumulation of heavy, wet snow.
1170. 1Zach1
Quoting 1169. washingtonian115:

CapitalWeatherGang

9:45 p.m. update: We’re becoming increasingly confident there will be a major East Coast storm on Wednesday and it seems unlikely the storm is going out to sea (though still a slight possibility). How much rain versus how much snow falls and where is still very difficult to say, but we will try to provide more specifics in our coverage throughout the day Monday. Models suggest solutions ranging from bare ground (rain and/or non-accumulating snow) to a substantial accumulation of heavy, wet snow.

So models range from " it could be nothing" to "We're all gonna die!"...
Wet Heavy Snow is not good, but is better than ICE....
Thunder and lightning coming into the picture in Wilmington NC
tropicaltidbits.com is down again.
1174. Grothar


1175. Grothar

Issued by The National Weather Service Buffalo, NY
Sun, Nov 23, 10:37 pm EST

... FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE BUFFALO CREEK NEAR GARDENVILLE * UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * AT 10 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.9 FEET AND UNSTEADY. * FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST... THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING AND CREST NEAR 7.5 FEET MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACT... AT 8.0 FEET... MODERATE FLOOD, FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO CREEK, ESPECIALLY NEAR COLLINS AVENUE, ELMA TOWN PARK, AND IN SOME SECTIONS OF ELMA VILLAGE NORTH OF THE BOWEN ROAD BRIDGE.

Heavy rain moving into western NY

Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather · 23m 23 minutes ago
Snow potential index: 5/10 (↑): Chance of rain mixing w/ and changing to wet snow - poss heavy - increasing for Wed.
one of the "Pro" forecasters, who I believe is our very own Ian stated the following,
70% chance top 10 Nov snowstorm in DC
50% chance top 5
Over at Americanwx.com
Dal 31, NYG 28, so sad.....lol
I am investing in a new server. The bright side to this is that I can get a 2014 CPU and brand new hardware, which I will be able to do more with than the 2012 configuration I had before. The new server shall be named "Súlimo," the greatest of the Valar in Tolkien mythology. Súlimo means "Lord of the Winds" in elvish. It may take multiple days for the server to be built and for me to set it up. Once this is all over, the tropicaltidbits.com will be back better than ever.


this is from Levi's facebook page
1179. Drakoen
GFS model has come west and even more so with the precip shield. I still think the track is too far east and it's not handling the 500mb longwave pattern correctly especially as the shortwave trough tilts negative up the east coast. Looking at the ECMWF/UKMET model combo for this storm.

They really need to sit down and figure out how to improve the American models because the Europeans models are destroying them.
Nice looking comma cloud.

Dak, do you have timeline your confident in yet?
1182. vis0
Those in SW Alabame /NE FL getting a few xtras strglers
(ref to post time- 0446 AM EzT
Yeah, they are starting to fire up. There's a line northward into the eastern Carolinas that seems to be firing up this morning.

Quoting 1182. vis0:

Those in SW Alabame /NE FL getting a few xtras strglers
(ref to post time- 0446 AM EzT

I hate storms like these near the Holidays. I live in the NW foothills of NC. I am right down the road from Boone. It's a tough forecast with precip type. We could have a cold rain, messy mix, or some decent wet snow totals. The NWS might not know until hours before it hits. Warmer air could be at the surface for some areas and limited cold air. I was planning on going out of town on Wednesday. I might have to leave Tuesday evening instead. Anyone have any thoughts on this storm?
Typical forecast for an east coast, coastal snow storm. lol Can't tell you how many busts I saw as a kid, let alone how many in my lifetime. But then once and a while you get a real surprise :-)

Quoting 1170. 1Zach1:


So models range from " it could be nothing" to "We're all gonna die!"...

My only advice is to stay tuned into Tuesday. Hopefully there will be more clarity as to p-type and time of onset by then. Then make plans accordingly.

I've got my eye on this because I'm headed to Raleigh/Durham on Wednesday. I'll cancel if it looks like any frozen precip around the area. I can reschedule my obligation.

One thing to keep in mind is that Wednesday is the biggest travel day of the year. Many will wait until last minute (Wednesday morning) to change plans, etc. Always good to be better informed and one step ahead of the masses. Safe travels.



Quoting 1184. robert88:

I hate storms like these near the Holidays. I live in the NW foothills of NC. I am right down the road from Boone. It's a tough forecast with precip type. We could have a cold rain, messy mix, or some decent wet snow totals. The NWS might not know until hours before it hits. Warmer air could be at the surface for some areas and limited cold air. I was planning on going out of town on Wednesday. I might have to leave Tuesday evening instead. Anyone have any thoughts on this storm?
1187. LargoFl
NWS State College:


NWS Sterling, VA:


NWS Mount Holly:
I didn't see this coming!

Mobile NWS discussion this morning!

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.



Uh oh.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

NJZ002-004-103-105-NYZ067>070-241700-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0006.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Initial snow map from the Taunton, MA NWS office. Could change considerably, but right now they're favoring mostly rain at the coast and heavy snow inland. Confidence is pretty low though.

Based on what I'm currently seeing, I see this as a Wednesday night into early morning Thursday snow for DC. Then a quick melt during the afternoon on Thanksgiving with highs in the mid 40s.

That doesn't mean that can't be some decent accumulations of wet snow over night.

Wednesday Rain before 1pm, then rain and snow. High near 41. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thanksgiving Day A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%
In my blog below I have a detailed set up on the heavy rain threat in FL and the Nor Easter across New England on Wednesday. Enjoy!

Link
wed nov 26


Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
I still believe that the GFS is crap..But this speaks for it's self..

This forecast for Wednesday is very complicated, uncertain, and likely to change. Stay tuned for frequent updates on this storm throughout the day
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:12 AM EST Monday 24 November 2014




Condition:Light Rain
Pressure:29.2 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:6 miles
Temperature:56.8°F
Dewpoint:53.1°F
Humidity:87%
Wind:SSW 22 gust 37 mph
Tuesday/Wednesday for my area.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I still believe that the GFS is crap..But this speaks for it's self..

This forecast for Wednesday is very complicated, uncertain, and likely to change. Stay tuned for frequent updates on this storm throughout the day


I think you have a good chance of waking up to snow on the ground Thursday morning in the DC area.
As I mentioned in my previous comment, I don't think its going to stick around very long due to temperatures well above freezing on Thanksgiving in the DC area.
Quoting 1202. Sfloridacat5:



I think you have a good chance of waking up to snow on the ground Thursday morning in the DC area.
As I mentioned in my previous comment, I don't think its going to stick around very long due to temperatures well above freezing on Thanksgiving in the DC area.
It will be all gone by the time u take the turkey out of the oven by noon be a great day for cooling the pie on the window ledge mine you
Quoting 1202. Sfloridacat5:



I think you have a good chance of waking up to snow on the ground Thursday morning in the DC area.
As I mentioned in my previous comment, I don't think its going to stick around very long due to temperatures well above freezing on Thanksgiving in the DC area.
The snow won't stick around..But I'm looking forward to december.


MattRogers CapitalWeatherGang
7:50 AM EST
Hey Marion, I believe we could cycle back into the cold pattern as early as the second week of December thanks to fast MJO progression, the strato-warming, and the ability to keep the polar vortex away from the pole. Canadian cold air supply remains strong during the interlude.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The snow won't stick around..But I'm looking forward to december.


MattRogers CapitalWeatherGang
7:50 AM EST
Hey Marion, I believe we could cycle back into the cold pattern as early as the second week of December thanks to fast MJO progression, the strato-warming, and the ability to keep the polar vortex away from the pole. Canadian cold air supply remains strong during the interlude.


I remember some really nice snows about the second week of December when I lived in the DC area.
One winter it snowed really hard around December 10-12th and we didn't have to go back to school until after Winter Break.

Quoting 1189. PensacolaDoug:

I didn't see this coming!

Mobile NWS discussion this morning!

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.






That's a good catch. The mix is showing on both the Wed 1 am and 4 am graphics.

Quoting 1208. LAbonbon:



That's a good catch. The mix is showing on both the Wed 1 am and 4 am graphics.



Still some forecast inconsistency between offices... LIX, JAN, and BMX don't seem to be biting yet. Not seeing strong model support.
My weather forecast per WU has been finicky as the little girl with the Rose petals tearing them off one by one..."HE loves me, He loves me NOT..... Snow Wednesday, Clear Wednesday.... LOL.....

Looks like this will be the night before forecast, and we will see as it goes..... See if we get the dynamic cooling and the effects this far west here in Calhoun,Ga.....
1211. sar2401
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I didn't see this coming!

Mobile NWS discussion this morning!

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.



Boy, that's a strange discussion. Neither Birmingham not Huntsville have anything in their discussion about snow except for being well north of us. The secondary shortwave doesn't look that powerful and it doesn't look to me like it's going to drag enough cold air with it to produce snow down here, even some flakes. The forecasters see a lot more than I do and sure are a lot smarter, but I get the feeling that particular forecaster really wants to see some snow. :-)
1212. sar2401
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I am investing in a new server. The bright side to this is that I can get a 2014 CPU and brand new hardware, which I will be able to do more with than the 2012 configuration I had before. The new server shall be named "Súlimo," the greatest of the Valar in Tolkien mythology. Súlimo means "Lord of the Winds" in elvish. It may take multiple days for the server to be built and for me to set it up. Once this is all over, the tropicaltidbits.com will be back better than ever.


this is from Levi's facebook page
I'd name it "If You Mess With Me, I'll Kill You", but I don't know how to say the in elvish :-)
that's a good name levi

my servers name is Q sarne
Quoting 1201. Sfloridacat5:

Tuesday/Wednesday for my area.




It's going to be a nice rain event for much of the peninsula. I think we'll see widespread 1-2" with some areas may get to 3".
Here are the top snowfalls in the US over the last 24hrs in inches.
ALTA 18.000
SILVER LK BRIGHTON 12.000
OAK CREEK 1.7 WNW, CO 10.500
CRESTED BUTTE 6.2 N, CO 10.000
HEBER CITY 10.1 ESE, UT 10.000
SMOOT 4.9 SSE, WY 9.000
CRESTED BUTTE COOP 7.200
1217. ricderr
good morning.......a nice 36 degrees this morning......i love the crisp mornings....thankfully no wind today......yesterday it blew......46 sustained with gusts at 56
Quoting 1215. luvtogolf:



It's going to be a nice rain event for much of the peninsula. I think we'll see widespread 1-2" with some areas may get to 3".


That's pretty crazy for November. The fun seems to start tomorrow afternoon and winding down by Wednesday afternoon.
1219. hydrus
Greetings to all..The wind here is gusting to 45 mph...The leaves are flyin in big walls of tan...quite a sight...few decent size branches down,....again....
1220. barbamz
Hello over there!
Unfortunately the news from Morocco are worsening.

Floods in Morocco
BBC weather video, 24 November 2014 Last updated at 14:25
Roads are blocked and people and cars caught in torrents of water after Morocco sees severe downpours. Tomasz Schafernaker reports on the huge amounts of rain that has fallen in the south of the country over the last few days.

Morocco flash floods leave dozens dead
At least 31 people washed away and dozens missing as storm hits southern part of the north African country.
AlJazeera, Last updated: 24 Nov 2014 12:40
Flash flooding in southern Morocco has reportedly killed at least 31 people, with many others still missing.
Heavy storms have swept across several regions including tourist hub Marrakesh, where torrential rain destroyed many mud homes on Sunday.
Roads and highways were blocked off, making it hard for emergency crew to reach people.
The "exceptional" storms also swept across the regions of Guelmim, Agadir and Ouarzazate, and a search was under way for the missing, the authorities said.
Journalist Brahim Boulid, reporting from Guelmim, told Al Jazeera on Monday that the death toll stood at 31, including eight members of the same family who died after floods swept away their vehicle.
The Arabic-language dailies Al Massae and Al Ahdath gave death tolls of 16 and 22 respectively. ...
Boulid told Al Jazeera that authorities were warned that the amount of rainfall would trigger floods but chose to ignore them.
"It was forecast that more than 100 millimetres of rain would fall, but nothing has been done. They just waited for the catastrophe to unfold," Boulid said. ...






Loops I gathered (and posted earlier) from Eumetsat from Nov 21 and Nov 23; pic from Nov 22 (rgb); airmass.


Click to enlarge. Accumulated rain 72h/mm / source: wetteronline.de.
Quoting 1217. ricderr:

good morning.......a nice 36 degrees this morning......i love the crisp mornings....thankfully no wind today......yesterday it blew......46 sustained with gusts at 56


Those are tropical storm winds! Feels like summer here today ahead of tomorrow's rain.
1222. flsky
Where?
Quoting 1219. hydrus:

Greetings to all..The wind here is gusting to 45 mph...The leaves are flyin in big walls of tan...quite a sight...few decent size branches down,....again....
Quoting 1220. barbamz:

Hello over there!
Unfortunately the news from Morocco are worsening.

Floods in Morocco
BBC weather video, 24 November 2014 Last updated at 14:25
Roads are blocked and people and cars caught in torrents of water after Morocco sees severe downpours. Tomasz Schafernaker reports on the huge amounts of rain that has fallen in the south of the country over the last few days.

Morocco flash floods leave dozens dead
At least 31 people washed away and dozens missing as storm hits southern part of the north African country.
AlJazeera, Last updated: 24 Nov 2014 12:40
Flash flooding in southern Morocco has reportedly killed at least 31 people, with many others still missing.
Heavy storms have swept across several regions including tourist hub Marrakesh, where torrential rain destroyed many mud homes on Sunday.
Roads and highways were blocked off, making it hard for emergency crew to reach people.
The "exceptional" storms also swept across the regions of Guelmim, Agadir and Ouarzazate, and a search was under way for the missing, the authorities said.
Journalist Brahim Boulid, reporting from Guelmim, told Al Jazeera on Monday that the death toll stood at 31, including eight members of the same family who died after floods swept away their vehicle.
The Arabic-language dailies Al Massae and Al Ahdath gave death tolls of 16 and 22 respectively. ...







Wow Barb!, sort of puts in perspective us here in Florida worrying about 3 in of rain!
1224. Patrap


Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park
By MICHAEL WINES NOV. 22, 2014


GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, Mont. — What will they call this place once the glaciers are gone?

A century ago, this sweep of mountains on the Canadian border boasted some 150 ice sheets, many of them scores of feet thick, plastered across summits and tucked into rocky fissures high above parabolic valleys. Today, perhaps 25 survive.

In 30 years, there may be none.

A warming climate is melting Glacier’s glaciers, an icy retreat that promises to change not just tourists’ vistas, but also the mountains and everything around them.

Streams fed by snowmelt are reaching peak spring flows weeks earlier than in the past, and low summer flows weeks before they used to. Some farmers who depend on irrigation in the parched days of late summer are no longer sure that enough water will be there. Bull trout, once pan-fried over anglers’ campfires, are now caught and released to protect a population that is shrinking as water temperatures rise.

Many of the mom-and-pop ski areas that once peppered these mountains have closed. Increasingly, the season is not long enough, nor the snows heavy enough, to justify staying open.

What is happening here is occurring, to greater or lesser extents, in mountains across the North American West. In the Colorado Rockies, the median date of snowmelt shifted two to three weeks earlier from 1978 to 2007. In Washington, the Cascades lost nearly a quarter of their snowpack from 1930 to 2007. Every year, British Columbia’s glaciers shed the equivalent of 10 percent of the Mississippi River’s flow because of melting.

The retreat is not entirely due to man-made global warming, though scientists say that plays a major role. While the rate of melting has alternately sped up and slowed in lock step with decades-long climate cycles, it has risen steeply since about 1980.

And while glaciers came and went millenniums ago, the changes this time are unfolding over a Rocky Mountain landscape of big cities, sprawling farms and growing industry. All depend on steady supplies of water, and in the American West, at least 80 percent of it comes from the mountains.

“Glaciers are essentially a reservoir of water held back for decades, and they’re releasing that water in August when it’s hot, and streams otherwise might have low flows or no flows,” Daniel B. Fagre, a United States Geological Survey research ecologist, said in an interview. “As glaciers disappear, there will be a reduction in the water at the same time that demand is going up. I think we’re on the cusp of bigger changes.”

But shrinking glaciers are only the visible symptom of much broader and more serious changes. “We’re a snow-driven ecosystem, and glaciers are just a part of that,” Dr. Fagre said. “The way the snow goes is the way our ecosystem goes.”

Lately, the snows are not going well.

Mountain snowpacks are shrinking. In recent decades, rising winter temperatures have increasingly changed snows to rain. Rising spring temperatures are melting the remaining snow faster.

Continue reading the main story
“Imagine turning on your faucet in your sink and all your water runs out in an hour’s time,” Thomas Painter, a research scientist and snow hydrologic expert at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in an interview. “Loss of snowpack earlier in the year compresses runoff into a shorter period of time.”

Glaciers and year-round snowfields — accumulations of snow in colder locations, like shadowed mountainsides, that never fully melt — pick up the slack in summer. But they, too, are vanishing: In Glacier National Park, the number of days above 90 degrees has tripled since early last century, and the summertime span in which such hot days occur has almost doubled, to include all of July and most of August.

Winters are warmer, too: A century ago, the last brutally cold day typically occurred around March 5. By last decade, it had receded to Feb. 15.

Dr. Fagre, the park’s resident expert on snowpacks, glaciers and climate change, can see the changes firsthand. Grinnell Glacier, one of the park’s most studied ice sheets, feeds a frigid lake on the flanks of Mount Gould, more than 6,000 feet above sea level. “At the beginning, we had a 25-foot-high wall of ice that we were actually concerned about from a safety standpoint,” he said. “And now the entire glacier simply slopes into the water, with no wall of ice whatsoever.

“All of that has melted just within the last 10 years.”

At Clements Mountain, with a summit some 8,800 feet above sea level, what used to be a glacier is now a shrinking snowfield surrounded by 30- and 40-foot heaps of moraine, stones piled up by the ice as it pushed its way forward. One recent fall day, freshets of melted snow tumbled over rock ledges and down hills, past stands of Rocky Mountain firs.

But that will change.

“This snowfield will vanish,” Dr. Fagre said. “When that happens, this whole area will dry up a lot. A lot of these alpine gardens, so to speak, are sustained entirely by waterfalls and streams like this. And once this goes, then some of those plants will disappear.”

For wildlife, Dr. Fagre said, the implications are almost too great to count. Frigid alpine streams may dry up, and cold-water fish and insects may grow scarce. Snowfall may decline, and fewer avalanches may open up clearings for wildlife or push felled trees into streams, creating trout habitats. Tree lines may creep up mountains, erasing open meadows that enable mountain goats to keep watch against mountain lions. A hummingbird that depends on glacial lilies for nectar may arrive in spring to find that the lilies have already blossomed.

Trekking across what is left of the Clements snowfield, Dr. Fagre unexpectedly encountered a long-clawed paw print: from one of perhaps 300 wolverines said to remain in the lower 48 states. These solitary, ferocious animals have come back after trappers nearly eliminated them decades ago, but conservationists and federal wildlife experts are sharply at odds over whether rising temperatures imperil them.

Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story
“Wolverines need deep snows to build their winter dens,” Dr. Fagre said. “I’m not sure what’s going to happen to them.”

For people, the future is somewhat clearer.

Rising temperatures and early snowmelt make for warmer, drier summers as rivers shrink and soils dry out. That is already driving a steady increase in wildfires, including in the park, and disease and pest infestations in forests.

But in the long term, the ramifications are more ominous than a mere rise in fires or dying trees.

Moisture loss from early snowmelt is worsening a record hydrological drought on the Colorado River, which supplies water to about 40 million people from the Rockies to California and Mexico; by 2050, scientists estimate, the Colorado’s flow could drop by 10 percent to 30 percent.

In the usually arid West, where reservoirs are vital, earlier and bigger snowmelt will disrupt the task of balancing water demand and supply. Experts anticipate an increase in disputes over water rights as a growing population competes for a shrinking resource. And farming, a major industry across much of the Rockies, will become even more of a gamble than fickle weather makes it.

Indeed, complications have already surfaced. Dennis Iverson runs a 140-head cow-and-calf operation on several thousand acres about 25 miles northeast of Missoula, Mont. Five hundred acres are hayfield, irrigated with water from the Blackfoot River about one and a half miles away.

Twenty years ago, the water flowed through an open ditch, and from the time the irrigation pumps were started on May 20, “we were able to irrigate the whole ranch,” he said. “There was always enough water, even to do some irrigating in July and August.”

Now, Mr. Iverson starts the pumps on May 10, because a hotter spring has already dried out his pasture. The open irrigation ditch has been converted into an 8,000-foot underground pipe to prevent evaporation. “If we hadn’t done that, we wouldn’t even be getting water to the ranch,” he said. “There’s that much less water in the stream than there was 20 years ago.”

A version of this article appears in print on November 23, 2014, on page A20 of the New York edition with the headline: Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
.
Yesterday was the best day of November weather wise. 80F-82F full sunshine and a warm SW-W wind. Galveston was perfect day to be down at.
1226. ricderr
Those are tropical storm winds! Feels like summer here today ahead of tomorrow's rain.

yep.....and we get those conditions about a dozen times a year and hurricane force gusts a couple of times.....it's just that they don't get a name so nobody knows about them but us residents......

i had my front yard tree blow into the house earlier this year.....luckily small so no damage...except the tree and touch up the paint on the fascia....and two years ago i had to replace my roof from wind damage
Quoting 1226. ricderr:

Those are tropical storm winds! Feels like summer here today ahead of tomorrow's rain.

yep.....and we get those conditions about a dozen times a year and hurricane force gusts a couple of times.....it's just that they don't get a name so nobody knows about them but us residents......

i had my front yard tree blow into the house earlier this year.....luckily small so no damage...except the tree and touch up the paint on the fascia....and two years ago i had to replace my roof from wind damage


Where you at?
Nevermind, just clicked your avatar, El Paso
1229. hydrus
Quoting 1222. flsky:

Where?

Warren County , Mid TN on the Cumberland Plateau...I am from South Florida...Where are you..?
Quoting 1224. Patrap:



Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park
By MICHAEL WINES NOV. 22, 2014


GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, Mont. — What will they call this place once the glaciers are gone?

A century ago, this sweep of mountains on the Canadian border boasted some 150 ice sheets, many of them scores of feet thick, plastered across summits and tucked into rocky fissures high above parabolic valleys. Today, perhaps 25 survive.

In 30 years, there may be none.

A warming climate is melting Glacier’s glaciers, an icy retreat that promises to change not just tourists’ vistas, but also the mountains and everything around them.

Streams fed by snowmelt are reaching peak spring flows weeks earlier than in the past, and low summer flows weeks before they used to. Some farmers who depend on irrigation in the parched days of late summer are no longer sure that enough water will be there. Bull trout, once pan-fried over anglers’ campfires, are now caught and released to protect a population that is shrinking as water temperatures rise.

Many of the mom-and-pop ski areas that once peppered these mountains have closed. Increasingly, the season is not long enough, nor the snows heavy enough, to justify staying open.

What is happening here is occurring, to greater or lesser extents, in mountains across the North American West. In the Colorado Rockies, the median date of snowmelt shifted two to three weeks earlier from 1978 to 2007. In Washington, the Cascades lost nearly a quarter of their snowpack from 1930 to 2007. Every year, British Columbia’s glaciers shed the equivalent of 10 percent of the Mississippi River’s flow because of melting.

The retreat is not entirely due to man-made global warming, though scientists say that plays a major role. While the rate of melting has alternately sped up and slowed in lock step with decades-long climate cycles, it has risen steeply since about 1980.

And while glaciers came and went millenniums ago, the changes this time are unfolding over a Rocky Mountain landscape of big cities, sprawling farms and growing industry. All depend on steady supplies of water, and in the American West, at least 80 percent of it comes from the mountains.

“Glaciers are essentially a reservoir of water held back for decades, and they’re releasing that water in August when it’s hot, and streams otherwise might have low flows or no flows,” Daniel B. Fagre, a United States Geological Survey research ecologist, said in an interview. “As glaciers disappear, there will be a reduction in the water at the same time that demand is going up. I think we’re on the cusp of bigger changes.”

But shrinking glaciers are only the visible symptom of much broader and more serious changes. “We’re a snow-driven ecosystem, and glaciers are just a part of that,” Dr. Fagre said. “The way the snow goes is the way our ecosystem goes.”

Lately, the snows are not going well.

Mountain snowpacks are shrinking. In recent decades, rising winter temperatures have increasingly changed snows to rain. Rising spring temperatures are melting the remaining snow faster.

Continue reading the main story
“Imagine turning on your faucet in your sink and all your water runs out in an hour’s time,” Thomas Painter, a research scientist and snow hydrologic expert at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in an interview. “Loss of snowpack earlier in the year compresses runoff into a shorter period of time.”

Glaciers and year-round snowfields — accumulations of snow in colder locations, like shadowed mountainsides, that never fully melt — pick up the slack in summer. But they, too, are vanishing: In Glacier National Park, the number of days above 90 degrees has tripled since early last century, and the summertime span in which such hot days occur has almost doubled, to include all of July and most of August.

Winters are warmer, too: A century ago, the last brutally cold day typically occurred around March 5. By last decade, it had receded to Feb. 15.

Dr. Fagre, the park’s resident expert on snowpacks, glaciers and climate change, can see the changes firsthand. Grinnell Glacier, one of the park’s most studied ice sheets, feeds a frigid lake on the flanks of Mount Gould, more than 6,000 feet above sea level. “At the beginning, we had a 25-foot-high wall of ice that we were actually concerned about from a safety standpoint,” he said. “And now the entire glacier simply slopes into the water, with no wall of ice whatsoever.

“All of that has melted just within the last 10 years.”

At Clements Mountain, with a summit some 8,800 feet above sea level, what used to be a glacier is now a shrinking snowfield surrounded by 30- and 40-foot heaps of moraine, stones piled up by the ice as it pushed its way forward. One recent fall day, freshets of melted snow tumbled over rock ledges and down hills, past stands of Rocky Mountain firs.

But that will change.

“This snowfield will vanish,” Dr. Fagre said. “When that happens, this whole area will dry up a lot. A lot of these alpine gardens, so to speak, are sustained entirely by waterfalls and streams like this. And once this goes, then some of those plants will disappear.”

For wildlife, Dr. Fagre said, the implications are almost too great to count. Frigid alpine streams may dry up, and cold-water fish and insects may grow scarce. Snowfall may decline, and fewer avalanches may open up clearings for wildlife or push felled trees into streams, creating trout habitats. Tree lines may creep up mountains, erasing open meadows that enable mountain goats to keep watch against mountain lions. A hummingbird that depends on glacial lilies for nectar may arrive in spring to find that the lilies have already blossomed.

Trekking across what is left of the Clements snowfield, Dr. Fagre unexpectedly encountered a long-clawed paw print: from one of perhaps 300 wolverines said to remain in the lower 48 states. These solitary, ferocious animals have come back after trappers nearly eliminated them decades ago, but conservationists and federal wildlife experts are sharply at odds over whether rising temperatures imperil them.

Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story
“Wolverines need deep snows to build their winter dens,” Dr. Fagre said. “I’m not sure what’s going to happen to them.”

For people, the future is somewhat clearer.

Rising temperatures and early snowmelt make for warmer, drier summers as rivers shrink and soils dry out. That is already driving a steady increase in wildfires, including in the park, and disease and pest infestations in forests.

But in the long term, the ramifications are more ominous than a mere rise in fires or dying trees.

Moisture loss from early snowmelt is worsening a record hydrological drought on the Colorado River, which supplies water to about 40 million people from the Rockies to California and Mexico; by 2050, scientists estimate, the Colorado’s flow could drop by 10 percent to 30 percent.

In the usually arid West, where reservoirs are vital, earlier and bigger snowmelt will disrupt the task of balancing water demand and supply. Experts anticipate an increase in disputes over water rights as a growing population competes for a shrinking resource. And farming, a major industry across much of the Rockies, will become even more of a gamble than fickle weather makes it.

Indeed, complications have already surfaced. Dennis Iverson runs a 140-head cow-and-calf operation on several thousand acres about 25 miles northeast of Missoula, Mont. Five hundred acres are hayfield, irrigated with water from the Blackfoot River about one and a half miles away.

Twenty years ago, the water flowed through an open ditch, and from the time the irrigation pumps were started on May 20, “we were able to irrigate the whole ranch,” he said. “There was always enough water, even to do some irrigating in July and August.”

Now, Mr. Iverson starts the pumps on May 10, because a hotter spring has already dried out his pasture. The open irrigation ditch has been converted into an 8,000-foot underground pipe to prevent evaporation. “If we hadn’t done that, we wouldn’t even be getting water to the ranch,” he said. “There’s that much less water in the stream than there was 20 years ago.”

A version of this article appears in print on November 23, 2014, on page A20 of the New York edition with the headline: Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
.

http://www.nps.gov/webcams-glac/aplocam.jpg?20141 024102315&20141024102615




1231. ricderr
Nevermind, just clicked your avatar, El Paso


sorry...i normally mention it at first......to bad they don't put your location on your posts
Quoting 1228. RitaEvac:

Nevermind, just clicked your avatar, El Paso


Those winds will really blow the tumbleweeds around:)
1233. barbamz
I hesitated for a while to post this video (or other pics) of this amazing tornado in South Africa because it looks somehow suspicious, but obviously it's reliable; at least it's on every European weather site now ;-)


Incredible Tornado in Vryheid, South Africa | 22-11-2014
Unlike the usual shot of cool air after the squall line, today feels like summer. It actually seems warmer outside then in the house.
1235. ricderr
Those winds will really blow the tumbleweeds around:)


we enjoy our tumbleweeds.......LOL
Quoting 1233. barbamz:

I hesitated for a while to post this video (or other pics) of this amazing tornado in South Africa because it looks somehow suspicious, but obviously it's reliable; at least it's on every European weather site now ;-)


Incredible Tornado in Vryheid, South Africa | 22-11-2014
Nice! Very picturesque. The video is poor quality, but here's a decent photo capturing both the funnel and the admiring crowd:



...and two more:
1237. Grothar
Quoting 1185. HaoleboySurfEC:

Typical forecast for an east coast, coastal snow storm. lol Can't tell you how many busts I saw as a kid, let alone how many in my lifetime. But then once and a while you get a real surprise :-)




So true.
Millions of Americans are packing bags and getting ready to hit the road or head to the airport ahead of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday. Snow and wind could throw a wrench into travel plans for some of them.

AAA says this is expected to be the busiest Thanksgiving travel period since 2007. Some 41 million Americans are expected to travel by car for the holiday, and another 3.5 million will fly to their holiday destination.

During the final three days before Thanksgiving, the worst weather is expected to be in the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, and along the East Coast. The nicest weather will stretch from California across the Southwest and into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.

Let's run down what we know and don't know.

Monday: While light snow will blanket parts of the Midwest and rain will dampen roads in parts of the East, the biggest headache may well be the wind.

Powerful low pressure over the Great Lakes will whip up a huge area of gusty winds from the Front Range of the Rockies across the Plains and Midwest and into the Northeast.

Sustained wind of at least 20 mph are forecast across this vast region, with much higher gusts possible in parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The gusty wind will include many major airports, which could lead to serious delays rippling throughout the nation's air traffic system. Motorists may also run into some problems due to fallen limbs, particularly in the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes where winds may be the strongest.Bear in mind that the wind will overlap with light snowfall in parts of the mid- and upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes, leading to poor visibility even though snowfall amounts shouldn't be terribly heavy.

There will also be the chance for some strong to severe storms along parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coasts. The main threat will be damaging wind, but a few quick "spin-up" tornadoes can't be ruled out.

Farther west, some light snow will fall Monday in parts of the central Rockies, leading to slick conditions on Interstate 70 west of Denver and possibly Interstate 80 in Utah's Wasatch Range. In the Northwest, warmer air will bring a change to rain to the Cascade passes, where snow fell Sunday.

Tuesday: This will be the best of the next three days in the Northeast as much of the region catches a break in the inclement weather.

However, parts of the Southeast, especially near the Atlantic coast, will remain unsettled as the frontal system stalls. This will lead to more showers and thunderstorms. Some could be strong in Florida. Dry weather will prevail farther west from the western Gulf Coast to the Southwest.

Otherwise, cold air behind that front should trigger some lake-effect snow for the Great Lakes. A clipper-type system will bring some light snow to the Northern Plains during the day, diving southeast into Iowa and parts of surrounding states by Tuesday night.

Rain should continue in parts of the Northwest with snow in the northern Rockies, but it shouldn't be anything out of the ordinary for late November. Temperatures even in the mountains won't be too far below freezing, so road crews should have little trouble treating major roads.

Weather in the South looks tranquil.

Wednesday: Unfortunately for East Coast travelers, what started out as a massive disagreement between weather models is starting to turn into agreement on a high-impact storm for the busiest travel day of Thanksgiving week.

Signs now strongly point to a new low-pressure center developing along a stalled front near the Eastern Seaboard. The low is expected to track north-northeastward near or just offshore of the Atlantic coast, potentially strengthening significantly as it does so.

There are key questions about the precise track and the amount of cold air that will plunge southeastward to meet up with the storm. These will be critically important for drivers, as they will determine the location and amount of snow that falls. At this early juncture, the best chance of snowy roads appears to be north and west of Interstate 95 and more toward the evening and nighttime hours Wednesday -- but check back with us for tweaks to that forecast.

For fliers it's increasingly looking like an ugly day. Whether the major East Coast airports see rain or snow, travel is likely to be snarled. High wind could add to flying woes if the low pressure center strengthens dramatically and stays close to shore.

Meanwhile, light snow and rain are a possibilty in parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, respectively, with a clipper-type system. It will be cold behind this system with below average highs once again in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Much of the West looks to be in good shape except for some lingering rain in Washington and some snow in the northern Rockies. The central and southern Plains also look quiet.

Thanksgiving Day: The storm off the East Coast will be moving away. There may be some lingering rain and snow in New England, especially early in the day. Cold air blasting south in the wake of the storm will likely trigger more lake-effect snows in the Great Lakes and the typical upslope-induced snowfall along the western slopes of the Appalachians.

A few rain and snow showers will continue in the Pacific Northwest, and a bit of snow may linger in the northern Plains, but otherwise dry conditions are expected for most of the country. It will also be chilly for most, with the exception of the Southwest where temperatures will be near to slightly above average.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1240. Grothar
On historically the heaviest travel weekend


1241. Grothar
I would not want to be traveling on that day. All the 6 major NE airports being affected.

Quoting 1205. Sfloridacat5:



I remember some really nice snows about the second week of December when I lived in the DC area.
One winter it snowed really hard around December 10-12th and we didn't have to go back to school until after Winter Break.




Winter 1973-74, the snow of the winter was December 16-17 when 6-12" fell. A second slop and ice event the night of the 19'th caused Fairfax Co to throw in the towel and we did not have school until after Christmas break.
1243. skynest
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


Would you like to better understand some of the more serious adverse consequences of global warming if appropriate action isn't taken? If you would, then would you prefer doing that the hard way, which is experiencing some of those consequences in the future, or the easy way, which is going by the current scientific understanding, or both the hard way and the easy way?


I am not a scientist although I have many science classes and some meteorology study behind me. From a layman's perspective I just cannot understand how climatologists can be so sure of calamities and even enumerate them when a meteorologist cannot even predict weather 5 days out. That is my reason giving me the tell that most of the climate predictions are way too complex to come up with a prediction inside 100 years much less even 10 years. And I believe a poster mentioned that the atmosphere is absorbing some large amount of hurricane Sandy's at some incredible rate. How do you even begin to measure the energy in any hurricane or even a thunderstorm without making some large assumptions.
1244. skynest
Quoting skynest:


I am not a scientist although I have many science classes and some meteorology study behind me. From a layman's perspective I just cannot understand how climatologists can be so sure of calamities and even enumerate them when a meteorologist cannot even predict weather 5 days out. That is my reason giving me the tell that most of the climate predictions are way too complex to come up with a prediction inside 100 years much less even 10 years. And I believe a poster mentioned that the atmosphere is absorbing some large amount of hurricane Sandy's at some incredible rate. How do you even begin to measure the energy in any hurricane or even a thunderstorm without making some large assumptions.


And just to add an addition to my "reasoning": Why are ALL (most) the climate forecasts negative outcomes? It just seems there is a kind of one sided way that people are looking at the "change". What if there are more positive changes to a warmer Earth? Would anybody be able to even know? I really think that it will take a 1000 years to answer that question. Remember the ice age warnings of the 70's? Is 40 years hard data really enough time when one speaks climate? I just don't think so. One thing I do know. And that is if we went into a cooling period it would be vastly more destructive on man. The planet will survive. We are talking about human life here. If concern about warmer is misplaced try to check out what a cooling might mean.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Winter 1973-74, the snow of the winter was December 16-17 when 6-12" fell. A second slop and ice event the night of the 19'th caused Fairfax Co to throw in the towel and we did not have school until after Christmas break.


I was there and enjoyed it as a kid. I was going to Woodly Hills Elementary School in northern Va (Fairfax Co.).