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Buffalo Belted With Five Feet of Snow; Is Jet Stream Weirdness to Blame?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2014

America's remarkable mid-November Arctic blast continued Wednesday morning, with hundreds of daily record low temperatures falling again. Charlotte, North Carolina bottomed out at 14°F, the coldest temperature ever measured so early in the season, and January-like cold brought temperatures 15 - 35°F below average to most of the eastern half of the country. Hardest hit by the unseasonably early Arctic outbreak was Buffalo, New York, where a record lake effect snowstorm was being blamed for at least five deaths. Three of the deaths were from heart attacks, one from a traffic accident, and one was a 46-year old man who was found dead in his stranded car. Up to five feet of snow fell along the south and east sides of the city in the 24 hours ending at 10 pm EST Tuesday, thanks to an intense band of heavy lake effect snow coming off of Lake Erie. The extreme snow band was very narrow; in the 24 hours when Lancaster on the city's east side was pummeled with 60" of snow, the Buffalo Airport, just six miles to the northwest, received only 3.9". Extreme atmospheric instability due to relatively warm waters in the lake were responsible for the intensity of the storm; water temperatures were 47°F at the Environment Canada Port Colborne buoy at the east end of Lake Erie on Tuesday. A state of emergency has been declared in Erie County, New York, which includes Buffalo, and the National Guard has been called out to help dig people out. Thankfully, the band of heavy snow responsible for the extreme accumulations shifted northwards out of the city on Wednesday morning, and only minor accumulations will occur during the remainder of Wednesday. On Thursday morning, though, a new lake effect snowstorm will set up. The NWS in Buffalo is forecasting that while this storm will not be quite as intense, up to two feet of additional snow could fall in the same regions that received up to five feet of snow already this week.


Figure 1. A lake effect snow storm brought five feet of snow to Lancaster, New York on November 18, 2014. Image credit: Melinda Stoldt, via Facebook.


Figure 2. Radar loop of an intense lake effect snow band affecting the Buffalo, New York region between 6:36 - 9:07 am EST November 19, 2014. The band, which had been nearly stationary over South Buffalo for over 24 hours, is seen finally lifting northwards out of the city, thanks to a wind shift caused by an approaching trough of low pressure.

Most extreme Lake Erie snowstorm on record?
According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, yesterday's snowfall totals near Buffalo may challenge the official 24-hour snowfall record for the state of New York. The State Climate Extremes Committee (SCEC) lists the official record 24-hour snowfall for the state of New York as 49.0” on November 14 - 15, 1900. As of 10 pm EST Tuesday, at least five suburbs of Buffalo on its south and east sides had beaten this mark, recording 51 - 60" of snow in 24 hours. The champions were was Lancaster and Gardenville, with 60" of snow in 24 hours. It is yet not clear if any of these reports will be worthy of official status, recognized by the SCEC. Mr. Burt notes, though, that the SCEC is rife with errors and probably should not be taken too seriously. Much greater 24-hour totals have been reported from various observers/sources over the years at multiple locations in New York. The greatest unofficial 24-hour total he is aware of is 68” at Adams, NY on Jan. 9, 1976. Also, 77” fell in Montague Township in 24 hours on Jan. 11 - 12, 1997. This value was discounted by the SCEC as a result of a small technicality due to one too many snow board measurements being taken (7 instead of 6). However, the figure itself was accepted as accurate, but not official since the observer made a small error in the timing of his snow accumulation measurements. Note that all of these record 24-hour snowfalls came in Lake Ontario's lake effect snow band, where higher terrain helps lift the air streaming off the lake to extract more snow. In Mr. Burt's words, "So far as Lake Erie events, I think this week's event one will go down as the most extreme on record.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of the lake effect snowstorm over Lake Erie on Tuesday afternoon, November 18, 2014. Strong updrafts due to relatively warm lake waters of 47°F created a towering line of clouds that cast a shadow to their north. Image credit: NASA.

Buffalo's worst snowstorm: January 1977
This week's storm did not significantly affect the mid through northern portions of metro Buffalo, including downtown, which is typical for a Lake Erie lake effect snowstorm--the heaviest snow falls south of the city. However, back in January 1977, a 5-day blizzard hit all of Western New York, including Buffalo. The combination of blowing snow, wind and Arctic temperatures resulted in hundreds of people being stranded in their cars. Because of constant whiteout conditions and life threatening wind chills, as well as the fact that nobody had cell phones back then to communicate in an emergency, 29 people lost their lives. Many were asphyxiated in their cars or froze to death from exposure.  

Mr. Burt documents the history of lake effect snowstorms in his 2013 post, Lake Effect Snow Totals and Historical Perspective.

Is the jet stream getting weird?
This week's intense cold blast is being triggered by an unusually extreme jet stream pattern, featuring a sharp ridge of high pressure along the U.S. West Coast and a deep trough of low pressure diving to the south over the Central United States. This configuration allows cold air to spill out of the Arctic behind the trough into the Central U.S., and be replaced by anomalously warm air flowing northwards along the West Coast of the U.S. deep into the Arctic. This extreme jet stream pattern is due, in part, to the influence of Super Typhoon Nuri, which caused a ripple effect on the jet stream after the typhoon became one of the most powerful extratropical storms ever recorded in the waters to the west of Alaska eleven days ago. However, we've seen an unusual number of extreme jet stream patterns like this in the past fifteen years, which happens to coincide with the period of time we've been observing record loss of summertime Arctic sea ice and record retreat of springtime snow cover in the Arctic. Could it be that these changes in the Arctic are causing the wacky jet stream behavior of recent years? That's the theory being advanced by a number of prominent climate scientists. I've written extensively about the topic, and my most recent post on the subject was in April, California Drought/Polar Vortex Jet Stream Pattern Linked to Global Warming. A updated story that I wrote for the just-published December issue of Scientific American discusses the theory and its detractors, and you can read it on-line for $6 (or buy a copy at the news stand.) My conclusion in the article: If Arctic changes are truly to blame for wacky jet stream behavior, losing the remaining 50 percent of the Arctic sea-ice coverage between now and 2030 will bring even greater antics. If the Arctic is not involved, that is worrisome as well—because that means jet stream changes are due to an unknown mechanism, leaving us with no idea how the jet stream will respond as climate change progresses. Thus, my forecast for the next 15 years: expect the unprecedented.


Video 1. A time-lapse view of Lake Erie from Buffalo, New York during the lake-effect snow storm of November 18, 2014. Note the rising motion of the clouds, showing the extreme instability of the atmosphere due to relatively warm waters at the surface (47°F at the Environment Canada Port Colborne buoy at the east end of Lake Erie.)

Jeff Masters
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6 ft fence!
Red Roof Inn.
Red Roof Inn.
Overlook from Highway 23 looking down on the Powell Valley.
3 feet of snow
3 feet of snow

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

From the last blog...

Quoting 349. Naga5000:



I'll have to dig up those pictures from Jan 2010 when we got the ice pellets and flurries around here. I have pictures showing icicles on a few palms around Lake Davis. But yes, very hard to get a freeze.

I actually remember watching this event unfold on birthday, was incredible to see wintry wx reach all the way down to the I-4 corridor...
Link
Thank you Dr. Masters.
Thanks doc
Thanks Doc. Amazing snowfall!
Thanks Dr. Masters. From last blog: Any one interseted in seeing my new blog?
Thank you Dr, Masters...Early winter for sure
great blog!!
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Doc. Amazing snowfall!
Quoting 5. vongfong2014:

Thanks Dr. Masters. From last blog: Any one interseted in seeing my new blog?
Quoting 5. vongfong2014:
Thank You for the comments Dr. on the current event and potential jet stream issues. I noted a few minutes ago (on the old blog) that you noted yesterday that the current pattern was probably set in motion by the Nuri "ripple" effect. Now we have to see how the rest of this Winter, and the next several years, emerge in terms of Winter issues.

Also have to remember that we also have to consider Summer jet stream patterns as well into the equation. In spite of the prominent polar vortex issues last year, and this current kink, we have also observed some pretty prominent "blocking" patterns set up in the summer in recent years that caused some remarkable heat waves in various parts of the world in recent years that included parts of the US one year and a large swatch of Russia a few years ago.

This is actually new territory, model-wise, in a changing climate scenario (whether modeling forward or backwards) as the actual jet stream patterns, overhead, in past years/eons is virtually impossible to determine and we need more data in coming years to compare against the current record of the past few decades in terms of the polar jet patterns and potential changes.

Just my personal opinion at this time and thanks for posting the links on the related articles.
thanx doc........ice melt?......effect the weather?.........change jet stream patterns?........nahhhhhh...utter foolishness....LOL
Here is a complete report from the National Weather Service in Tallahassee on the Blountstown Tornado that struck early Monday morning. It was rated an EF-2 and had the longest damage path of any Florida tornado since February 1st of 2007. Link

I had the chance to see this damage up close, and its a miracle that this tornado missed a direct hit on the city of Blountstown. There were only 2 reported injuries.
14. bwi
I noticed this course that might be useful -- wish I had time to take it!
It goes through the climate change denial movement and how to understand how it works.
https://www.edx.org/course/uqx/uqx-denial101x-mak ing-sense-climate-4371#.VGzGtvnF_T9
"We've seen an unusual number of extreme jet stream patterns like this in the past fifteen years, which happens to coincide with the period of time we've been observing record loss of summertime Arctic sea ice and record retreat of springtime snow cover in the Arctic. Could it be that these changes in the Arctic are causing the wacky jet stream behavior of recent years?"

I have no qualms with the idea that decreasing Arctic sea ice could lead to an unstable jet stream that could allow for extreme weather in the United States, but I don't see the connection between that possibility and what is currently ongoing. The mechanism for this record cold is clear--the extratropical remnants of Nuri forced an incredible negative EPO - six standard deviations below average - which in turn allowed arctic air to flow into the United States from Canada.

Otherwise, thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters.
It really was remarkable that the snow band stayed completely stationary for 24 hours. You could zoom into the street level radar for the area and the edge of the snow band just stayed over the same location all day.

That's what separated this event from previous events.


What exactly is that in the southern GMEX?
I70 years of Fossil Fuel burning en masse are rearing its hydra headed effects on the Globe by changing the very nature of the atmospheric rivers.



We have made a possible extinction level mistake and everyone is cruising along oblivious.

Its gonna be ugly..
Quoting 15. TropicalAnalystwx13:

"We've seen an unusual number of extreme jet stream patterns like this in the past fifteen years, which happens to coincide with the period of time we've been observing record loss of summertime Arctic sea ice and record retreat of springtime snow cover in the Arctic. Could it be that these changes in the Arctic are causing the wacky jet stream behavior of recent years?"

I have no qualms with the idea that decreasing Arctic sea ice could lead to an unstable jet stream that could allow for extreme weather in the United States, but I don't see the connection between that possibility and what is currently ongoing. The mechanism for this record cold is clear--the extratropical remnants of Nuri forced an incredible negative EPO - six standard deviations below average - which in turn allowed arctic air to flow into the United States from Canada.

Otherwise, thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters.


Thanks, I just modified the post to insert my sentence from yesterday's post to make it clear that two major influences might be at work; I should have included this sentence when I originally posted:

"This extreme jet stream pattern is due, in part, to the influence of Super Typhoon Nuri, which caused a ripple effect on the jet stream after the typhoon became one of the most powerful extratropical storms ever recorded in the waters to the west of Alaska eleven days ago."

Dr. M.
Dr. Masters, I disagree with your simple description of the cold outbreak. You wrote:

This week's intense cold blast is being triggered by an unusually extreme jet stream pattern, featuring a sharp ridge of high pressure along the U.S. West Coast and a deep trough of low pressure diving to the south over the Central United States. This configuration allows cold air to spill out of the Arctic behind the trough into the Central U.S., and be replaced by anomalously warm air flowing northwards along the West Coast of the U.S. deep into the Arctic.

I see the weather system as a giant heat engine. Solar energy heats the tropics, which causes the atmosphere to expand and thus force the flow toward the poles. The warm air flowing poleward cools and then must return toward the tropics to complete the circulation loop. The cold air masses, being denser than the warm air, are pulled to the bottom of the atmosphere by gravity. When these cold air masses pass over the US, the high mountain ranges in the West tend to direct the flow, with the Coriolis Effect keeping the cold air banked against the Rockies. As the cold air masses flow toward the mid latitudes, they lift the less dense warm, moist air above, producing various types of precipitation. Your statement is exactly backwards, IMHO.

Of course, the sea-ice is part of this process. The recent trend toward increased Arctic melting during the summer months may be one result of the greater flows of warm air toward the North Pole. The reduction in sea-ice cover also presents a positive feedback, as snow and ice tend to reflect more sunlight than open water or surface melt ponds on the sea-ice. The exact cause-and-effect relationships are difficult to sort out, but I think it's important to get the basics correct in presenting the situation.
Good morning!!,thank you Dr. Masters.
I believe not body is paying much attention to what is going on on the southwestern Caribbean?, we still in Hurricane season believe or not!!, i has been watching the area since yesterday,even thought the NHC have not mention this area,to my eyes is becoming a area of interest,maybe a late season surprise from our last cold front? any thoughts about this?,thanks!!!.
Thanks Dr Masters for the blog.

Does ENSO has to do something about the pattern or at this time is not a factor?
Quoting 21. EricGreen:

Dr. Masters, I disagree with your simple description of the cold outbreak. You wrote:

This week's intense cold blast is being triggered by an unusually extreme jet stream pattern, featuring a sharp ridge of high pressure along the U.S. West Coast and a deep trough of low pressure diving to the south over the Central United States. This configuration allows cold air to spill out of the Arctic behind the trough into the Central U.S., and be replaced by anomalously warm air flowing northwards along the West Coast of the U.S. deep into the Arctic.

I see the weather system as a giant heat engine. Solar energy heats the tropics, which causes the atmosphere to expand and thus force the flow toward the poles. The warm air flowing poleward cools and then must return toward the tropics to complete the circulation loop. The cold air masses, being denser than the warm air, are pulled to the bottom of the atmosphere by gravity. When these cold air masses pass over the US, the high mountain ranges in the West tend to direct the flow, with the Coriolis Effect keeping the cold air banked against the Rockies. As the cold air masses flow toward the mid latitudes, they lift the less dense warm, moist air above, producing various types of precipitation. Your statement is exactly backwards, IMHO.

Of course, the sea-ice is part of this process. The recent trend toward increased Arctic melting during the summer months may be one result of the greater flows of warm air toward the North Pole. The reduction in sea-ice cover also presents a positive feedback, as snow and ice tend to reflect more sunlight than open water or surface melt ponds on the sea-ice. The exact cause-and-effect relationships are difficult to sort out, but I think it's important to get the basics correct in presenting the situation.

See post #15. The mechanism for this arctic outbreak is clear.

That isn't to say decreasing Arctic sea ice won't have an impact in the future, but the reason for this particular cold wave is unrelated.
Logic and basic science dictates that all climate change on the Earth, past, present, and future has also been accompanied by changes in the polar jet patterns (both in the North and South Hemispheres) as they are part of the climate moderating mechanism. This is only part of the bigger puzzle that is being currently observed and that will continued to be observed in the coming decades; we are the first few generations on Earth that actually have the technology, going forward, to study and document these issues in detail.
As bonkers as this snowstorm is, it still vastly pales in comparison to the 1972 Iranian Blizzard. 26 feet of snow fell in one week, burying entire villages. 6,000 people died, smothered and frozen under the snow. Remains far and away the most deadly snowstorm on record for the planet.
The warming induced by fossil fuel burning is lowering the relative pressures between the 2 jet streams..allowing for many more deviations into larger Loops,.....longer lasting ones at that.

That is a Human caused forcing, not a Natural one.

This is going to spin up fast..


Quoting 24. TropicalAnalystwx13:


See post #15. The mechanism for this arctic outbreak is clear.

That isn't to say decreasing Arctic sea ice won't have an impact in the future, but the reason for this particular cold wave is unrelated.


So, what force caused Tropical Storm Nuri to blast toward the North Pole thru the Bering Strait? And, what caused the other storms with their warm air flows since then to move poleward over Alaska? Remember, basic physics tells us that it's impossible for low pressure to "pull" a gas. Gases move in response to pushing forces from high pressure toward regions with lower pressure, as well as shear forces due to different velocities between layers.
It's not looking good for tomorrow. The wind should be lined up just perfect for a long fetch band setup.





Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

See post #15. The mechanism for this arctic outbreak is clear.

That isn't to say decreasing Arctic sea ice won't have an impact in the future, but the reason for this particular cold wave is unrelated.
I agree with most of what you've written. However, given that the entire global atmosphere is changing, it's probably inaccurate to state that any particular weather event is "unrelated" to the overall warming of the planet. That's not to assign blame or attribution, of course; no one can credibly claim that this week's extreme snowfall event in NY is being "caused" by the loss of Arctic sea ice. But by the same token, neither can anyone credibly claim that the event is "unrelated" to the disappearance of that ice...

One planet, one atmosphere--and we've knocked it off kilter...
i am happy the snow stop in Buffalo
Quoting 26. tlawson48:

As bonkers as this snowstorm is, it still vastly pales in comparison to the 1972 Iranian Blizzard. 26 feet of snow fell in one week, burying entire villages. 6,000 people died, smothered and frozen under the snow. Remains far and away the most deadly snowstorm on record for the planet.


I know nothing about the validity or accuracy of the source, but here's some interesting info about this event. I had no knowledge of it prior to your mention.

1972 Iran Blizzard
New York
At least five storm-related deaths were reported in Buffalo, New York, Tuesday night, Erie County authorities announced. A 46-year-old man was found dead in his vehicle in Alden, New York. The car was completely buried in snow, The Buffalo News reports. A second person died in an automobile accident, and the three other deaths are possibly due to cardiac complications.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency for 10 counties, including Erie County, most impacted by lake-effect snow. The declaration mobilizes more than 1,000 transportation personnel, including 526 snow plows, 74 large loaders and 21 snow blowers. The declaration and also sends 150 National Guardsmen into the Buffalo area to assist with recovery efforts.

Areas of western New York will definitely need every bit of that help to clear roads of abandoned vehicles and large accumulations of snow, especially south of Buffalo, New York. Up to 150 vehicles were abandoned on The Thruway (I-90), and numerous vehicles were abandoned on roads throughout the Buffalo metro area. Emergency personnel worked throughout the night to rescue people stranded in their vehicles using snowmobiles and all terrain vehicles. Erie County officials reported that they had rescued all stranded people in Erie County Tuesday evening, but The Buffalo News reports that many weren't rescued and remained trapped overnight on The Thruway.

Of those trapped, WIVB reports that 24 members of the Niagara University Women's Basketball team were stuck on a bus on I-90 for hours. The team's bus finally was able to move after snow plows cleared a path for them, and after more than 24 hours they finally were able to leave their bus, ABC News reports.

A travel ban remains in place for areas south of Buffalo.

According to The Buffalo News, Erie County Executive Mark C. Poloncarz declared a state of emergency for all areas of Erie County most impacted by the heavy snow Tuesday. The state of emergency imposes travel bans in the areas, and includes the communities of South Buffalo, Lackawanna, Hamburg, Lancaster and West Seneca, amongst others.

Roads remain shutdown in the area, including a 132-mile-long stretch of The Thruway (I-90) from Exit 46 in Rochester, New York, to Exit 61 on the Pennsylvania State Line, according to The Thruway Authority. The New York State Department of Transportation urged people to stay off roads in western New York, as white-out conditions and snow accumulations on roads made travel impossible across a large area of the region.

Snow was so heavy that it collapsed roofs, doors and windows across the Buffalo metro area. In one such case, WKBW reports that a roof collapsed at a warehouse near a health care facility in Cheektowaga, New York. There are currently concerns that the collapse could spread to the entire building and spark a gas leak. Snow also plowed through doors at Chrissy Hazard's home in Cheektowaga. A rush of snow ripped a pair of French doors off the walls and inundated a room in the house. No one was injured in the incident.
Snow was so deep that ten of West Seneca's 22 snow plows were stuck in heavy snow Tuesday morning, according to The Buffalo News. Emergency vehicles weren't immune to transportation woes. Plows were being sent to free police cars in Hamburg, New York, and fire trucks and ambulances reported problems traversing snow covered roads in South Buffalo, The Buffalo News reports. Hundreds of businesses, schools and government offices all closed Tuesday and remained closed Wednesday because of snow. Buffalo International Airport canceled or delayed dozens of flights Tuesday. Click here to check the status of departures. Click here to check the status of arrivals. Many Niagara Frontier Transportation bus routes were scrapped as well.
Quoting 27. Patrap:

The warming induced by fossil fuel burning is lowering the relative pressures between the 2 jet streams..allowing for many more deviations into larger Loops,.....longer lasting ones at that.

That is a Human caused forcing, not a Natural one.



Part of that equation (the fossil fuel burning issue) is contributing to the documented polar/glacial "soot" deposits in the Northern Hemisphere which darken the ice which absorbs greater heat thus contributing to the glacial melt/retreat issue.  Hard to argue with that one; major amounts of soot in the air with the advent of coal burning in the 1800's on through the current era when you throw factories and automobiles into the mix over the last 100 years or so. 
Quoting 18. Patrap:

I70 years of Fossil Fuel burning en masse are rearing its hydra headed effects on the Globe by changing the very nature of the atmospheric rivers.



We have made a possible extinction level mistake and everyone is cruising along oblivious.

Its gonna be ugly..

this is going to be like a snowball rolling down a hill getting bigger and bigger faster and faster till it reaches the point of no return
Quoting the doc from above: On Thursday morning, though, a new lake effect snowstorm will set up. The NWS in Buffalo is forecasting that while this storm will not be quite as intense, up to two feet of additional snow could fall in the same regions that received up to five feet of snow already this week.


This already is the new storm approaching, right? Very fast!
Quoting 34. hurricanes2018:

i am happy the snow stop in Buffalo


It's going to come back again.
Quoting 38. weathermanwannabe:


Part of that equation (the fossil fuel burning issue) is contributing to the documented polar/glacial "soot" deposits in the Northern Hemisphere which darken the ice which absorbs greater heat thus contributing to the glacial melt/retreat issue.  Hard to argue with that one; major amounts of soot in the air with the advent of coal burning in the 1800's on through the current era when you throw factories and automobiles into the mix over the last 100 years or so. 
Big plus for this...Its probably a bigger problem than thought , and many think it is a big problem now.
Quoting 21. EricGreen:

Dr. Masters, I disagree with your simple description of the cold outbreak. You wrote:

This week's intense cold blast is being triggered by an unusually extreme jet stream pattern, featuring a sharp ridge of high pressure along the U.S. West Coast and a deep trough of low pressure diving to the south over the Central United States. This configuration allows cold air to spill out of the Arctic behind the trough into the Central U.S., and be replaced by anomalously warm air flowing northwards along the West Coast of the U.S. deep into the Arctic.

I see the weather system as a giant heat engine. Solar energy heats the tropics, which causes the atmosphere to expand and thus force the flow toward the poles. The warm air flowing poleward cools and then must return toward the tropics to complete the circulation loop. The cold air masses, being denser than the warm air, are pulled to the bottom of the atmosphere by gravity. When these cold air masses pass over the US, the high mountain ranges in the West tend to direct the flow, with the Coriolis Effect keeping the cold air banked against the Rockies. As the cold air masses flow toward the mid latitudes, they lift the less dense warm, moist air above, producing various types of precipitation. Your statement is exactly backwards, IMHO.

Of course, the sea-ice is part of this process. The recent trend toward increased Arctic melting during the summer months may be one result of the greater flows of warm air toward the North Pole. The reduction in sea-ice cover also presents a positive feedback, as snow and ice tend to reflect more sunlight than open water or surface melt ponds on the sea-ice. The exact cause-and-effect relationships are difficult to sort out, but I think it's important to get the basics correct in presenting the situation.

What are your credentials? They better be pretty good for me to believe you over a Ph.D. Meteorologist.
Quoting 23. Tropicsweatherpr:

Thanks Dr Masters for the blog.

Does ENSO has to do something about the pattern or at this time is not a factor?


ENSO is always a factor in jet stream position.

Dr. M.
Thanks Dr Masters for the blog big warm up this weekend in the northeasT by sunday maybe in the mid 50S
170 low breaking temp records in the CONUS..crazy..

anyone see the big storm coming into the Western Conus on the 12z GFS run?







Quoting 44. bwtranch:


What are your credentials? They better be pretty good for me to believe you over a Ph.D. Meteorologist.


Science isn't based on belief. Perhaps you should spend some time studying the physics instead of relying on credentials.
Quoting 35. LongIslandBeaches:


I know nothing about the validity or accuracy of the source, but here's some interesting info about this event. I had no knowledge of it prior to your mention.

1972 Iran Blizzard


The NYTimes has an archived article about it, but you have to pay for it.
Quoting 47. ncstorm:

170 low breaking temp records in the CONUS..crazy..

anyone see the big storm coming into the Western Conus on the 12z GFS run?

Scotty mentioned it a few days ago.
Quoting barbamz:
Quoting the doc from above: On Thursday morning, though, a new lake effect snowstorm will set up. The NWS in Buffalo is forecasting that while this storm will not be quite as intense, up to two feet of additional snow could fall in the same regions that received up to five feet of snow already this week.


This already is the new storm approaching, right? Very fast!


Yeah, luckily.
This new system is what shifted the winds and ended the Lake Effect event south of Buffalo.

But after the system passes by and the winds switch around to the west again, the Lake Effect snow machine will get going again.

It shouldn't be a bad as the previous setup (hopefully), and it will be followed by warmer and rainy conditions starting late Saturday or Sunday.
It's a few years old, but there is a guy there that looks very familiar.

LinkInteresting video.


Taking it back to the"present", here is the current US snow cover as of this morning:



Quoting 53. weathermanwannabe:

Taking it back to the"present", here is the current US snow cover as of this morning:






Not sure how accurate your map is .. since I live in central Illinois which your map shows having 2-4 inches of snow and we do not have any snow on the ground .. nor have we had !!
california has to like this.....


Ken Clark

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California Storm and Expected Rain and Snow Amounts
October 30, 2014; 12:34 PM ET
Today let's go over the expected amounts of rain and snow across California from the impending storm through Saturday. This will be the first significant statewide rain and snow event of the season.
The current satellite shows the storm and its cold front in the Eastern Pacific.

The cold front will make progress to the south across California Friday, moving through the Bay Area late morning and down to the south-central coast and northern San Joaquin Valley late in the day and then into and through southern California Friday night. There will be a period of rain with the front. Behind the front cold front unstable air will keep showers going into Saturday. As I pointed out in my blog yesterday, parts of northern California can even have a thunderstorm Friday afternoon and early at night.
Snow levels will be at 7,500 to 8,000 feet ahead of the cold front but will then fall to 5,000-5,500 feet in the Sierra behind the front. At resort level, between 6-12 inches of snow seem likely with the heaviest snow in the Central Sierra. There can be 2-5 inches down to near the 5,000-foot level.
Both the GFS and NAM have the greatest amount of precipitation in central California from the coast to the Sierra with lighter but still significant amounts north and south. Here are total rain and melted snow amounts from both models.
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NAM:

GFS:

The European generally has the same area with the greatest amounts, though totals are somewhat lower than either of the other two models for central California.
My total precipitation amounts outside of the snow accumulation:
-Northern California down to the Bay Area and east to the Sacramento Valley: 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch with about double that in the foothills and lower mountains of the Sierra.
-Central California from the coast to central Sierra Foothills: 0.60 of an inch to 1.20 inches with local higher amounts in the Sierra Foothills. Lowest amounts on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley.
-Southern California: 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch with somewhat higher amounts in the south- and west-facing mountains. Scattered light showers will occur with much smaller rain amounts in the upper deserts.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Taking it back to the"present", here is the current US snow cover as of this morning:





I don't think there's much snow left in Oklahoma, especially central Oklahoma.
Temperatures are up near 50 degrees and I can't find any snow on any of the webcams.
Actually 54 degrees in OKC.
I wonder what I would do with all that snow..
Quoting 21. EricGreen:

Dr. Masters, I disagree with your simple description of the cold outbreak.
[...]
...Your statement is exactly backwards, IMHO.
Of course, the sea-ice is part of this process. The recent trend toward increased Arctic melting during the summer months may be one result of the greater flows of warm air toward the North Pole. The reduction in sea-ice cover also presents a positive feedback, as snow and ice tend to reflect more sunlight than open water or surface melt ponds on the sea-ice. The exact cause-and-effect relationships are difficult to sort out, but I think it's important to get the basics correct in presenting the situation.
So what do you think is causing "greater flows of warm air to the North Pole"? You write about "cause and effect" as if they are mutually exclusive, yet with any feedback loop (whether positive or negative) effect itself becomes cause, that is the basic concept of a feedback loop. Review your logic and use your knowledge of science to consider the direct effect and feedback loops being caused by this (from NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division),
Quoting 32. Neapolitan:

One planet, one atmosphere--and we've knocked it off kilter...




Europe has again an "off kilter" Jet Stream today. And it isn't the first one this year, this year is really strange.

Long tome lurker says hello from Hamburg, Germany.
Live cam image from Stillwater Oklahoma. Stillwater is just north of Oklahoma City in northcentral Oklahoma.
Looks like a beautiful day there today.

The latest Euro at 96 and 120..I would guess some wind advisories will be issued within 2 or 3 days..


for the Surfers on the blog..I dare you :)



Surfer on November 18 on Lake Erie..
7 day precip is showing some love for el paso.....we're gonna get hammered with as much as a tenth of an inch


Quoting 48. EricGreen:



Science isn't based on belief. Perhaps you should spend some time studying the physics instead of relying on credentials.

I have a Master's degree in environmental science specializing in climatology. What you wrote looks and sounds like something out of a -High- Junior High School textbook on basic Physical Geography.
So I'll take your statement to mean that you don't have any.
Quoting ncstorm:
for the Surfers on the blog..I dare you :)



Surfer on November 18 on Lake Erie..


It would have to be a little better than that to get me out in those conditions.

Maybe if the waves looked like these waves on Lake Superior.

Link
Quoting 62. ncstorm:

Global Warming Is Probably Boosting Lake-Effect Snows

By Eric Holthaus




Interesting, thank you. Quite convincing charts in this article:

68. jpsb
Since everyone is discussing the loss of Arctic Sea Ice I thought a picture of Arctic Sea Ice might be an appropriate thing to post. This is the most recent I could find but unfortunately it is from before our most recent super snow storm.


And here is a nice chart of the last ten years or so again prior to the storm.
Quoting 59. ChrisHamburg:





Europe has again an "off kilter" Jet Stream today. And it isn't the first one this year, this year is really strange.

Long tome lurker says hello from Hamburg, Germany.


Hummel hummel!
People making the best of their time with being snowed in..

Go Bills! @BillsExpert
Follow

I'm snowed in! Expect some drunk tweets later tonight #BillsMafia






ABC News Reporter this morning on GMA

Quoting 68. jpsb:

Since everyone is discussing the loss of Arctic Sea Ice I thought a picture of Arctic Sea Ice might be an appropriate thing to post. This is the most recent I could find but unfortunately it is from before our most recent super snow storm.


And here is a nice chart of the last ten years or so again prior to the storm.



Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Albert Einstein


Quoting 47. ncstorm:
170 low breaking temp records in the CONUS..crazy..

As my Dad always says when this happens... "But what happened to global warming??"
Quoting 54. whitewabit:



Not sure how accurate your map is .. since I live in central Illinois which your map shows having 2-4 inches of snow and we do not have any snow on the ground .. nor have we had !!
S C does, but melting fast today, we had around 3" Sunday.

Hit 39 while sun was out, but overcast and around 34 now, pressure down from yesterday to 29.98", dew pt way up to 26, W-SW winds continue, lighter at moment, blew in teens or above yesterday, below 10 currently.
Quoting 66. Sfloridacat5:



It would have to be a little better than that to get me out in those conditions.

Maybe if the waves looked like these waves on Lake Superior.

Link
Nice. I saw huge waves up there in 1985..Almost killed 5 people.
Dammit Grothar...That's me... Look closely..
Quoting ncstorm:
People making the best of their time with being snowed in..

Go Bills! @BillsExpert
Follow

I'm snowed in! Expect some drunk tweets later tonight #BillsMafia








Ha! Creative.
Quoting 68. jpsb:
And here is a nice chart of the last ten years or so again prior to the storm.


What exactly are to trying to prove with this chart? That sea ice coverage for this part of this year is doing better than the last nine years? If so, then you are correct. This particular year does appear to be somewhat better than the last nine. What about the ninety years before that? How does it compare then?
Quoting 52. Grothar:

It's a few years old, but there is a guy there that looks very familiar.

LinkInteresting video.






Grothar...Pink shoes...See me?
Quoting 73. opal92nwf:


As my Dad always says when this happens... "But what happened to global warming??"
nothing happen to it its just disguised as winter maybe even extreme winter extreme drought extreme rain extreme wind extreme hail extreme tornados extreme ice
Quoting 65. bwtranch:


I have a Master's degree in environmental science specializing in climatology. What you wrote looks and sounds like something out of a -High- Junior High School textbook on basic Physical Geography.
So I'll take your statement to mean that you don't have any.


Another reply without any scientific substance. Well, for the record, I have a MsME, earned in 1967. I first learned about AGW more then 35 years ago, when led me to read several books on weather and climate and attended my first conference which had a session on climate back in 1979.

So, what drives the Jet Streams? Do you agree that they are the result of the Hadley Cell and Ferrel Cell circulation, both of which are powered by solar energy and vertical circulation, according to theory. Here's a "high school" explanation of the process:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/circ.htm

Note too this description of the jet streams with the warm air moving poleward and the cold air returning:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet.htm
Quoting 54. whitewabit:



Not sure how accurate your map is .. since I live in central Illinois which your map shows having 2-4 inches of snow and we do not have any snow on the ground .. nor have we had !!



I swear....Grace Slick wouldn't like this
Quoting 77. CybrTeddy:



Ha! Creative.
that's an old picture from previous year
Quoting 70. ncstorm:

People making the best of their time with being snowed in..

Go Bills! @BillsExpert
Follow

I'm snowed in! Expect some drunk tweets later tonight #BillsMafia









I just knew you were a good person nc
Quoting 79. PalmBeachWeather:




Grothar...Pink shoes...See me?


lol
Quoting 68. jpsb:

Since everyone is discussing the loss of Arctic Sea Ice I thought a picture of Arctic Sea Ice might be an appropriate thing to post. This is the most recent I could find but unfortunately it is from before our most recent super snow storm.


And here is a nice chart of the last ten years or so again prior to the storm.



You keep posting the old chart, some would call it blatantly misrepresenting the situation, cherry picking, or flat out lying.



"The plot above replaces an earlier sea ice extent plot, that was based on data with the coastal zones masked out. This coastal mask implied that the previous sea ice extent estimates were underestimated. The new plot displays absolute sea ice extent estimates. The old plot can still be viewed here for a while."
El Paso, El Paso....I keep seeing the name El Paso popping up....I spent a week in El Paso one night on the way to Scottsdale Az to see my sister a few months ago... Reminds me of a song "I used to like"
Quoting 54. whitewabit:



Not sure how accurate your map is .. since I live in central Illinois which your map shows having 2-4 inches of snow and we do not have any snow on the ground .. nor have we had !!


Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, luckily.
This new system is what shifted the winds and ended the Lake Effect event south of Buffalo.

But after the system passes by and the winds switch around to the west again, the Lake Effect snow machine will get going again.

It shouldn't be a bad as the previous setup (hopefully), and it will be followed by warmer and rainy conditions starting late Saturday or Sunday.
As long as the lake is not iced over and remains above about 34, these lake effects snow will cycle between the general area east of Cleveland up to Watertown NY. Every place will get their turn in the tank before it's done. This is a typical winter pattern on Lakes Erie and Huron. What's different this year is that the lake is still relatively warm and the this air mass is so cold, so anywhere that has the right flow will get a couple of feet in 24 hours. The good thing is that all the cold air is accelerating the cooling and icing of the lakes, so this will come to an end over the next couple of weeks. The bad thing is that the lakes will be iced over about a month sooner than usual, which will lead to a snow drought from mid-January on.
Such an ODD blog title from a professional meteorologist. There's nothing "weird" about Newtonian Physics which was never negated in the macrocosm by Quantum Physics. This snowstorm was named TROPICAL SUPER-TYPHOON MURI ten days ago.

You take a GLOBE, not a MAP, and you lay a string from Muri off the East of Japan and through the Aleutian Islands and that string continues in a straight line to Tennesee. An object in motion continues in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.

Typhoon Muri represents an airborne lake of water the size of one of the Great Lakes and several feet deep. As the vapor mass moves from the tropics to the Arctic it is continually cooling and compressing out moisture as rain.

This relatively warm rain will melt such sea ice as it mixes with. Ice that melts absorbs thermal energy as it transitions further cooling the moist air mass. "Thermal Energy of Transition" is not measured as temperature change on thermometers: it is measured as expanded gases by aerometers, air expansion which forces Arctic air south at near zero C temperatures (32 degrees below freezing F)

The tropical storm, still heavily laden with water mass weighing hundreds of millions of tons, is now advancing as a cold front pushing out of it's path moistureless freezing polar vortex air mass.

The previous Muri is now a winter storm of great residual kinetic power, which not only still contains ample heavy dense H2O mass, but has set up swirls of slipstream vortices on both sides of the advancing mass. The relatively warm air displaced is less dense, with wider spaced air molecules and cannot effectively resist or repel the advance. Temperatures 300 miles apart fore and aft of the cold front are nearly 80 degrees F different.

Once the wind pattern is "frozen" in place, again Newton's Physics, a body (of air) in motion continues in motion.

Muri has not yet finished and will wreak hell in England and Northern Europe next week.

Physics doesn't give a damn whether or not you understand it, and physics will kill you without mercy if you don't understand it and act appropriately.

The climate is no longer your friend.
If you are from the Houston/Galveston region you will like hearing about this. This is from a meteorologist in Houston, and he has wrote about the urban heat island that is messing with temperature readings. I'm not pushing anything I'm just the messenger and forwarding to folks as it is something to know about and very interesting.

The Urban Heat Core: Houston, TX

"It has been known for a long time that urban sprawl can alter temperature and weather patterns on local scales. This was first studied in Atlanta in the 1990s when it was noticed that unusually heavy rainfall was occurring in the late night hours during the summer months. Houston has been no exception to urban development especially on its west and northern flanks in the last few decades and is very clearly noted on clear and cold nights such as last night. Technology and the plethora of temperature data now available between official reporting sites gives a glimpse into just how widely varying the temperatures extremes can be over just a few miles. Low temperature data last night showed very interesting patterns of significantly warmer temperatures along I-10W, US 59S, I-45N, and along HWY 6 between US 290 and I-10. Temperatures along these urban corridors ranged anywhere from 3-8 degrees warmer than temperatures only a few miles away. What was striking is how closely the temperature patterns mirrored the major freeways and how warm western Harris County temperatures were especially in the Hwy 6 corridor. These observations are far from scientific as the various sensors being reported from home temperature gauges are surely not all uniform nor likely all installed equally. Additionally, many of these sensors are likely within subdivisions which already create a warmer background temperature effect so the data set is not easily ready for direct comparison. Another consideration last night was the high clouds which crossed the area and what affect that may have had on the low temperature patterns. A better case could probably be made for tonight if winds were not shifting to the south late.

What can be drawn from the data is that urbanization is certainly resulting in warmer temperature readings especially under strong radiational cooling conditions. It is also noted that significant temperature differences over a very short distance are almost certainly creating microscale surface temperature boundaries during the warmer season which could help foster thunderstorm development. These boundaries are likely on the order of a few miles long and maybe less than 1/4th of a mile wide which cannot be detected on Doppler radar nor high resolution model guidance, but given the temperature discontinuity noted in the data on a clear cold night suggest a similar pattern is likely present on a hot summer day. It is likely that the climate record at BUSH IAH is starting to be skewed due to urban development surrounding the airport with Hooks (Tomball) likely a more representative station for the remaining rural areas of Harris County. The urban heat core has loosely been defined as the area within the 610 loop, but it is clear that development has been sustained enough to likely expand that area to include areas inside Beltway 8 and also to include areas near/along the major freeway systems. It is almost certain that construction of the Grand Parkway system and its resultant urban development along that system will expand the urban heat core outward to the far outer reaches of Harris County over the next decade and into surrounding counties."
Quoting 82. PalmBeachWeather:




I swear....Grace Slick wouldn't like this
KSHE's first song played by "Johnny Rabbit" when they debuted in '67. Long live Sweetmeat! Our snow cover is quickly diminishing, with temps in the '50s and rain this weekend it's going to be a muddy mess until we freeze again, guess Thanksgiving, if hydrus's map correct.
Quoting 73. opal92nwf:


As my Dad always says when this happens... "But what happened to global warming??"


What happened to global warming? You can tell him that it got worse. We just had our record hottest 12-calendar-month period globally, according to NCDC. There is some evidence that it is starting to make some types of extreme weather events more common or worse. Arctic outbreaks could become more common in some areas as a result of global warming.
So, a possible El Nino on the way, combining with a polar jet stream gone bananas. That'll be interesting. Looks like we're into the 'never a dull moment' era of global warming. Hopefully, California will get its 'pineapple'. Wonder what it'll bring to us, here in the UK? Last year was the wettest and stormiest winter since records began, as the jet stream that brought record cold to the US north east went into static mode, and pulled mild, moisture laden air from the southern North Atlantic up to the UK for months on end. It might miss us, this time, or it might not. Interesting times.
I was looking at the top picture in the docs blog the person in the picture does not appear to be to amuse to her situation


Alas, October was the Warmest ever recorded as well.
Quoting 81. EricGreen:



Another reply without any scientific substance. Well, for the record, I have a MsME, earned in 1967. I first learned about AGW more then 35 years ago, when led me to read several books on weather and climate and attended my first conference which had a session on climate back in 1979.

So, what drives the Jet Streams? Do you agree that they are the result of the Hadley Cell and Ferrel Cell circulation, both of which are powered by solar energy and vertical circulation, according to theory. Here's a "high school" explanation of the process:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/circ.htm

Note too this description of the jet streams with the warm air moving poleward and the cold air returning:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet.htm

You have all this.? A Masters earned in 1967.? Learned of AGW over 35 years ago.? You read a few books on weather and climate.? Then attended your first conference which had a session on climate back in 1979.?.You post two NOAA sites , And you have 55 comments since October of 2006.....Your post lacks content for someone with that kind of background, and judging by your member date , you dont have much time to discuss real scientific evidence.



more snow coming!!
Quoting 92. RitaEvac:
If you are from the Houston/Galveston region you will like hearing about this. This is from a meteorologist in Houston, and he has wrote about the urban heat island that is messing with temperature readings. I'm not pushing anything I'm just the messenger and forwarding to folks as it is something to know about and very interesting.


Someone should let him know that the data sets are adjusted for UHI, and regardless, show the same trend when unadjusted.

"When compiling temperature records, NASA GISS go to great pains to remove any possible influence from Urban Heat Island Effect. They compare urban long term trends to nearby rural trends. They then adjust the urban trend so it matches the rural trend. The process is described in detail on the NASA website (Hansen 2001)"

and

"This confirms a peer review study by the NCDC (Peterson 2003) that did statistical analysis of urban and rural temperature anomalies and concluded "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures... Industrial sections of towns may well be significantly warmer than rural sites, but urban meteorological observations are more likely to be made within park cool islands than industrial regions." "

Not shooting the messenger, just asking to messenger to bring back a response. :)


i see a nice warm up on the east coast here
TWC was just saying that this recent Lake Effect event may not break the previous records.

I guess they're still trying to figure it out.
Sorry for the errors on snow map folks; I just re-posted what WSI had up. Thanks for the real time reports-corrections on the ground................................... :)
Quoting 102. Sfloridacat5:

TWC was just saying that this recent Lake Effect event may not break the previous records.

I guess they're still trying to figure it out.
Possible. Considering they cant some areas.
Quoting 97. Patrap:



Alas, October was the Warmest ever recorded as well.


It was also the warmest August to October three month period on record. Going to be a photo finish with 2010 for the warmest year.
our snow has begun

Quoting 96. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I was looking at the top picture in the docs blog the person in the picture does not appear to be to amuse to her situation
I noticed that also...If fact, she has a rather devious smirk.
Quoting 101. hurricanes2018:



i see a nice warm up on the east coast here
wont feel warm in a wind storm
Quoting 107. hydrus:

I noticed that also...If fact, she has a rather devious smirk.
yeah like come over here and I will show you what to do with that camera
Go ask Alice, when she's ten foot tall
Quoting 100. Naga5000:



Someone should let him know that the data sets are adjusted for UHI, and regardless, show the same trend when unadjusted.

"When compiling temperature records, NASA GISS go to great pains to remove any possible influence from Urban Heat Island Effect. They compare urban long term trends to nearby rural trends. They then adjust the urban trend so it matches the rural trend. The process is described in detail on the NASA website (Hansen 2001)"

and

"This confirms a peer review study by the NCDC (Peterson 2003) that did statistical analysis of urban and rural temperature anomalies and concluded "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures... Industrial sections of towns may well be significantly warmer than rural sites, but urban meteorological observations are more likely to be made within park cool islands than industrial regions." "

Not shooting the messenger, just asking to messenger to bring back a response. :)


I emailed him your comment
Quoting 110. PalmBeachWeather:

Go ask Alice, when she's ten foot tall


Great band that went too commercial.
Quoting 92. RitaEvac:

If you are from the Houston/Galveston region you will like hearing about this. This is from a meteorologist in Houston, and he has wrote about the urban heat island that is messing with temperature readings. I'm not pushing anything I'm just the messenger and forwarding to folks as it is something to know about and very interesting.


[snip]

Probably the most interesting thing about that write-up is that the author is treating this like something new. The differences in absolute, instantaneous temperature within different land use types is not new.
It's also not new that those types of influences cannot explain the trend toward warmer temperatures, nor the loss of glacial land ice, nor the loss of sea ice, nor the warming of the near-surface atmosphere, nor the migratory patterns of animals, nor.... well you get the picture.
Quoting 69. Grothar:



Hummel hummel!


Mors, Mors.

Especially for you, the weather situation in Europe without any colours and fancy graphics. :)

I've seen that chart so many times where almost the only place that is blue is the CONUS. I wouldn't be surprised that they color uninhabited or mostly uninhabited parts of the world red because they know the general US population can't figure out the temps there themselves.

I just had to get that out, that thought pops in my mind every time I see it.
Quoting 48. EricGreen:



Science isn't based on belief. Perhaps you should spend some time studying the physics instead of relying on credentials.
for Pete sake
Quoting 115. opal92nwf:

I've seen that chart so many times where almost the only place that is blue is the CONUS. I wouldn't be surprised that they color uninhabited or mostly uninhabited parts of the world red because they know the general US population can't figure out the temps there themselves.

I just had to get that out, that thought pops in my mind every time I see it.

The map is GFS-analyzed, not produced by meteorologists.
Quoting 103. weathermanwannabe:

Sorry for the errors on snow map folks; I just re-posted what WSI had up. Thanks for the real time reports-corrections on the ground................................... :)


I have found usually maps of that nature are not accurate .. I don't know why it seems that they could develop an accurate map by just going by NWS sites ..
Quoting 117. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The map is GFS-analyzed, not produced by meteorologists.

Still think it's skewed
Quoting 113. ScottLincoln:


Probably the most interesting thing about that write-up is that the author is treating this like something new. The differences in absolute, instantaneous temperature within different land use types is not new.
It's also not new that those types of influences cannot explain the trend toward warmer temperatures, nor the loss of glacial land ice, nor the loss of sea ice, nor the warming of the near-surface atmosphere, nor the migratory patterns of animals, nor.... well you get the picture.


I think the author is trying to explain that "official temperature readings at locations is why we are seeing hotter temperature readings that is becoming skewed. Giving the impression that the world is heating up, due to urbanization. And the gauges need to be relocated."

I don't know just guessing.
Quoting 118. ncstorm:




the date says Nov 18 on the pic and it was posted on ABC News today..Im sure people can reenact something that was done a year earlier,..it isnt hard to place cans/bottles in snow..especially if it concerns booze..

still creative though..
I am telling you its not the picture is from a previous year I have very good memory Iand that is an exact picture from last year I will get it for u watch
Quoting 122. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am telling you its not the picture is from a previous year I have very good memory Iand that is an exact picture from last year I will get it for u watch


no need Keep..

it aint that serious about a pic with beer cans in it..dang..
Quoting 123. ncstorm:



no need Keep..

it aint that serious about a pic with beer cans in it..dang..

no it isn't but to claim its 2014 in buffalo is
Quoting 81. EricGreen:



Another reply without any scientific substance. Well, for the record, I have a MsME, earned in 1967. I first learned about AGW more then 35 years ago, when led me to read several books on weather and climate and attended my first conference which had a session on climate back in 1979.

So, what drives the Jet Streams? Do you agree that they are the result of the Hadley Cell and Ferrel Cell circulation, both of which are powered by solar energy and vertical circulation, according to theory. Here's a "high school" explanation of the process:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/circ.htm

Note too this description of the jet streams with the warm air moving poleward and the cold air returning:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet.htm


I don't have time to tutor you dude. Your basic understanding of the large scale circulation is pretty shaky to begin with. Look at the 250 mb winds on the days in question. Actually, look at the winds in the entire column and understand that this is baroclinically driven and enhanced by gravity on the one side, but there is a return flow on the backside and that brings warm maritime air far northward. Yes, the Earth is a heat engine and that's where the energy ultimately comes from. This effect however, is almost entirely driven by pressure differentials and the fact that the confining current for Arctic air has moved farther south than normal.
This is becoming a pattern here the last few years and really is nothing new, the amplitude of the waves are getting larger in the winter months and this leads to increased variation. The current pattern is moving east and at my location in Texas it has past on and the flow is becoming zonal with southerly winds at the surface. .
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I was looking at the top picture in the docs blog the person in the picture does not appear to be to amuse to her situation
Reminds me at age 15 wondering where my slacker brother went while we still had all this snow to shove. I remember at least three such storm from the mid-50's to the mid-60's in Cleveland where we had over three feet of snow. I think it was the winter of 62-62 when it seemed like it never stopped snowing. I'd get done shoveling and the next day I'd be right back at it. We had a pond not far from us where the neighborhood kids played hockey. That was the only year we just gave up because we couldn't keep the snow off it long enough to practice, let alone have a game. We got our first real snow sometime in late October and out last was on Good Friday. That was the winter I decided that, when the opportunity presented itself, I was getting out of there. Places like Buffalo and Watertown are in completely different worlds from Cleveland. We tolerated these periods of heavy snow. You have to love snow to live there.
Quoting 125. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no it isn't but to claim its 2014 is its from 2010


take it up with ABC News..I provided the link..
Quoting 124. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



click on properties its from 2010


Also that beer is Alexander Keiths, A local beer from Halifax, NS. I don't know if they sell that in Buffalo. I'm just saying.
Jessum....





At post #91: Beg your pardon. Muri??
Quoting 120. opal92nwf:


Still think it's skewed

...for no particular reason.
Quoting 128. ncstorm:



take it up with ABC News..I provided the link..
I already have send the info too them
Quoting 133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I already have send the info too them


LOL..

good luck..
Quoting 116. hydrus:

for Pete sake



Who is Pete?
Quoting sar2401:
Reminds me at age 15 wondering where my slacker brother went while we still had all this snow to shove. I remember at least three such storm from the mid-50's to the mid-60's in Cleveland where we had over three feet of snow. I think it was the winter of 62-62 when it seemed like it never stopped snowing. I'd get done shoveling and the next day I'd be right back at it. We had a pond not far from us where the neighborhood kids played hockey. That was the only year we just gave up because we couldn't keep the snow off it long enough to practice, let alone have a game. We got our first real snow sometime in late October and out last was on Good Friday. That was the winter I decided that, when the opportunity presented itself, I was getting out of there. Places like Buffalo and Watertown are in completely different worlds from Cleveland. We tolerated these periods of heavy snow. You have to love snow to live there.


It might be hard to believe but Buffalo was recently named as one of the top locations in the country to live.
This was based on affordable housing, job opportunities, recreation, etc.

But for people that don't like snow (or the cold), I doubt Buffalo would be their first choice in places to live.
Double Post
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


click on properties its from 2010
It's a "Canadian Beer Fridge" built by Molsons from some other storm. Versions show up on-line from as early as 2006. I don't know when it was really built, but it wasn't in Buffalo this year. Here's a picture of the exact same "fridge" from 2006. This same picture keeps showing up anytime there's a big now anywhere.
Quoting 138. sar2401:

It's a "Canadian Beer Fridge" built by Molsons from some other stormVersionsshow up on-line form as early as 2006. I don't know when it was really built, but it wasn't in Buffalo this year. Here's a picture of the exact same "fridge" from 2006. This same picture keeps showing up anytime there's a big now anywhere.


Mystery solved! Love the local beer advertising every time there is a big snowstorm though. XD
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Probably the most interesting thing about that write-up is that the author is treating this like something new. The differences in absolute, instantaneous temperature within different land use types is not new.
It's also not new that those types of influences cannot explain the trend toward warmer temperatures, nor the loss of glacial land ice, nor the loss of sea ice, nor the warming of the near-surface atmosphere, nor the migratory patterns of animals, nor.... well you get the picture.


Could you tell our Purple Martins to stop showing up in January when they used to wait until March.
Quoting 116. hydrus:

for Pete sake


kinda liking for peter sake after reading some of the comments :) doesn't have the same flow though


This photo shows lake-effect snow in Buffalo, New York, on November 18, 2014
Dear ABC News,

You have posted a picture that was created in 2006 that consisted of beer cans and bottles placed in snow. I know this picture existed before the bombogenesis snow of Buffalo, NY because I checked the properties of the picture, I also know that the beer posted in the picture is no longer sold in Buffalo as I zoomed in the picture. In fact while sitting behind my laptop I took 15 minutes out of my life to googled the origin story back from 2006 to prove to my fellow weather enthusiants that I was right.

Please remove the picture and send my cookie to
c/o No Humor, USA..
Quoting 101. hurricanes2018:



i see a nice warm up on the east coast here
But another cold shot is lurking again for the end of November and early December.I was laughed at on here for saying that the trees are seeing intense early cold.Well guess what!.It has come back to bite!.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


It might be hard to believe but Buffalo was recently named as one of the top locations in the country to live.
This was based on affordable housing, job opportunities, recreation, etc.

But for people that don't like snow (or the cold), I doubt Buffalo would be their first choice in places to live.
I never trust those "surveys". Forbes reports Buffalo is in the top 10 worst cities to be looking for work, in the top 25 for number of abandoned homes (which probably accounts for the low housing prices), and consistently in the top 10 for worst winter weather, right up there with Cleveland. The Buffalo Chamber of Commerce slogan is "At least were not Cleveland". :-)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no it isn't but to claim its 2014 in buffalo is
It seems as though, if something is creative or cute, the claims of what it is are secondary. Accuracy just isn't important at that point.
Quoting 144. ncstorm:

Dear ABC News,

You have posted a picture that was created in 2006 that consisted of beer cans and bottles placed in snow. I know this picture existed before the bombogenesis snow of Buffalo, NY because I checked the properties of the picture, I also know that the beer posted in the picture is no longer sold in Buffalo as I zoomed in the picture. In fact while sitting behind my laptop I took 15 minutes out of my life to googled the origin story back from 2006 to prove to my fellow weather enthusiants that I was right.

Please remove the picture and send my cookie to
c/o No Humor, USA..
not out to prove anything but to wilfully claim it was taken in 2014 in buffalo is misleading false and incorrect or do u prefer to go by incorrect information as opposed to correct information
Quoting 112. luvtogolf:



Great band that went too commercial.
?? You talking about Starship? Nothing commercial in Airplane days.

Snow is gone except in shade and pile spots. 34 & holding, all other readings as well.
Quoting sar2401:
I never trust those "surveys". Forbes reports Buffalo is in the top 10 worst cities to be looking for work, in the top 25 for number of abandoned homes (which probably accounts for the low housing prices), and consistently in the top 10 for worst winter weather, right up there with Cleveland. The Buffalo Chamber of Commerce slogan is "At least were not Cleveland". :-)


I saw the story on the Today Show just a week or two ago. I'm just going from what they said. I personally was surprised by the information.

Here's a link to a possibly related story by NBC.

The 10 Best Cities to Relocate to

Pittsburgh, PA
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Omaha, NE/Council Bluffs, IA
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Austin-Round Rock, TX
Des Monies-West Des Moines, IA
Madison, WI
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN
Denver-Aurora, CO
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN

2. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY

Now nicknamed “the city of trees,” Buffalo had a rough transition period into the twenty-first century. Its current economy is moving from industrial business to tourism, while the healthcare and education industries are growing quickly. Unemployment is at 8.3%, which is lower than in the rest of the states. With a prolific arts scene and an affordable cost of living that is 14.4% below the national average, the city is ideal for people looking to move to a place with plenty of cultural events. There are over 20 parks in Buffalo, along with Niagara Falls, it is quickly becoming a greener, more active city. For sports fans, the Buffalo Bills and Buffalo Sabres will provide plenty of athletic entertainment.

Link
Quoting ncstorm:
Dear ABC News,

You have posted a picture that was created in 2006 that consisted of beer cans and bottles placed in snow. I know this picture existed before the bombogenesis snow of Buffalo, NY because I checked the properties of the picture, I also know that the beer posted in the picture is no longer sold in Buffalo as I zoomed in the picture. In fact while sitting behind my laptop I took 15 minutes out of my life to googled the origin story back from 2006 to prove to my fellow weather enthusiants that I was right.

Please remove the picture and send my cookie to
c/o No Humor, USA..
Well, the image is at least six years old (Here's a link to a 2009 version.) I don't think anyone is trying to take away anyone else's fun by pointing that out; it's just that it's pretty lazy for someone to claim someone else's creative endeavor as their own. Ya know? I mean, if the guy was really in Buffalo, why not actually stick some beer cans in a door-stopped snowdrift? Can it be that difficult?

Meh...
Looks like something out of a movie!


Just updated.

German shepherd dog in lake effect snow, so I'm somehow entitled to post this, lol.

About this atlantic jet stream, Chris from Hamburg/Germany has posted earlier, it's looking strange for sure:



Follow this link to the source and click "animate" to see what it's going to do the next days.

It has happened earlier the last weeks or even months but more to the east, bothering southern France and northern Italy with all those severe flooding. Those regions are enjoying a little break right now in order to clean up the mess.

On the whole, the weather situation is somehow undecided in central Europe. Will the former pattern continue or return? Or will some colder air, lingering in the northeast over Russia, have the chance to take over, at least a bit? Very uncertain, as the weather guy from BBC explained in a video from yesterday afternoon (the jetstream thing is covered in the second half of the video):

6-10 day forecast
BBC weather video, 18 November 2014 Last updated at 21:15 Help
Ever wondered how a forecast is put together? BBC Weather's Tomasz Schafernaker explains some of the background science in our latest long range forecast.


Voluntary service from Estofex got a current warning of severe weather showing that most of the threat of severe thunderstorms has shifted to the east of the Mediterranean (Agean Sea) right now, but Portugal may experience some unsettled weather right now as well.

SYNOPSIS from Estofex:
At mid to upper troposphere, synoptic situation over Europe is dominated by disturbed, highly amplified flow pattern. A sharp short-wave trough is forecast to move over southern Balkans and the Aegean region during the forecast period. Another trough will reside over the eastern Atlantic, affecting western Iberia. Two ridges, one stretching over the western Mediterranean and other over Russia and Scandinavia, are observed. Closer to the surface, situation is more straightforward, with an extensive area of high pressure, centered over Russia and covering much of Europe. Areas of low pressure will be confined to the Atlantic and SE Europe.
Apart from certain parts of S Europe, rather stable airmass will dominate over most of the continent, preventing any significant chances of DMC.


"Rather stable airmass" means: nothing noteworthy to report from my place in Germany right now. Just ordinary weather, lol.

Current infrared loop (updating):
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not out to prove anything but to wilfully claim it was taken in 2014 in buffalo is misleading false and incorrect or do u prefer to go by incorrect information as opposed to correct information


what information are you gathering from that story that has to be corrected so..that the beer isnt sold in NY?

there was a picture yesterday posted on here of another doorway of snow without beer cans from buffalo, ny from one of their news stations..whats the difference..it showed the same amount of snow but it was without beer..

but I'll leave it alone Keep..I do hope you get resolution and the picture is taken down from ABC News..we wouldn't want to mislead the public that beer can be inserted in a wall of snow outside of 2006..
Quoting 153. Neapolitan:

Well, the image is at least six years old (Here's a link to a 2009 version.) I don't think anyone is trying to take away anyone else's fun by pointing that out; it's just that it's pretty lazy for someone to claim someone else's creative endeavor as their own. Ya know? I mean, if the guy was really in Buffalo, why not actually stick some beer cans in a door-stopped snowdrift? Can it be that difficult?

Meh...

Geeez Neo.......But I do like your ice cream..
Quoting 151. dabirds:

?? You talking about Starship? Nothing commercial in Airplane days.

Snow is gone except in shade and pile spots. 34 & holding, all other readings as well.


Yes, Starship "We built this city." Ugh! Airplane was a great rock & roll band.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Still think it's skewed
In truth, it is slightly skewed. The areas in places like most of the Arctic and broad reaches of northern oceans, there obviously are no ground observations stations, which will give the most accurate temperature readings. The temperatures are estimated solely by satellite readings. However, these readings have been tested by comparing their output with areas of a dense network of observations stations, like the US and most of Europe. The results have shown the estimates are accurate within one degree, so there's is some inaccuracy, but it's small. I was really skeptical of those uninhabited temperature measurements until I read up on the technology behind them.

Quoting 62. ncstorm:

Global Warming Is Probably Boosting Lake-Effect Snows

By Eric Holthaus





Here are the details:

Truly extreme lake-effect snows gather their energy from a wide temperature differential between the lake temperature and the air temperature. That temperature contrast produces atmospheric instability—the warm air immediately over the lake wants to surge upward through the colder air on top, bringing with it heaps of evaporated moisture. That moisture is quickly converted to snowfall in massive quantities, and deposited squarely on the hills and towns at the far end of the lake. As the Great Lakes warm due to climate change, there’s now more evaporation, and more of an opportunity for that drastic water-air temperature difference to manifest itself, especially during the kinds of intense cold air outbreaks that we’ve been seeing seemingly more of over the last few years.

In Tuesday’s storm, that difference approached a whopping 50 degrees Fahrenheit—with a pool of warmer-than-average water in Lake Erie joining forces with near-record-low temperatures in the lower part of the atmosphere.




Quoting 100. Naga5000:



Someone should let him know that the data sets are adjusted for UHI, and regardless, show the same trend when unadjusted.

"When compiling temperature records, NASA GISS go to great pains to remove any possible influence from Urban Heat Island Effect. They compare urban long term trends to nearby rural trends. They then adjust the urban trend so it matches the rural trend. The process is described in detail on the NASA website (Hansen 2001)"

and

"This confirms a peer review study by the NCDC (Peterson 2003) that did statistical analysis of urban and rural temperature anomalies and concluded "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures... Industrial sections of towns may well be significantly warmer than rural sites, but urban meteorological observations are more likely to be made within park cool islands than industrial regions." "

Not shooting the messenger, just asking to messenger to bring back a response. :)


Who are you quoting here? I see the quotation marks, but don't see the source...
Quoting 159. luvtogolf:



Yes, Starship "We built this city." Ugh! Airplane was a great rock & roll band.


Nothin's gonna stop us now
164. flsky
I've never been to Buffalo, but do they mountains where they could create ski resorts? They certainly have enough snow!

Quoting 152. Sfloridacat5:



I saw the story on the Today Show just a week or two ago. I'm just going from what they said. I personally was surprised by the information.

Here's a link to a possibly related story by NBC.

The 10 Best Cities to Relocate to

Pittsburgh, PA
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Omaha, NE/Council Bluffs, IA
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Austin-Round Rock, TX
Des Monies-West Des Moines, IA
Madison, WI
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN
Denver-Aurora, CO
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN

2. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY

Now nicknamed “the city of trees,” Buffalo had a rough transition period into the twenty-first century. Its current economy is moving from industrial business to tourism, while the healthcare and education industries are growing quickly. Unemployment is at 8.3%, which is lower than in the rest of the states. With a prolific arts scene and an affordable cost of living that is 14.4% below the national average, the city is ideal for people looking to move to a place with plenty of cultural events. There are over 20 parks in Buffalo, along with Niagara Falls, it is quickly becoming a greener, more active city. For sports fans, the Buffalo Bills and Buffalo Sabres will provide plenty of athletic entertainment.

Link
Quoting 153. Neapolitan:

Well, the image is at least six years old (Here's a link to a 2009 version.) I don't think anyone is trying to take away anyone else's fun by pointing that out; it's just that it's pretty lazy for someone to claim someone else's creative endeavor as their own. Ya know? I mean, if the guy was really in Buffalo, why not actually stick some beer cans in a door-stopped snowdrift? Can it be that difficult?

Meh...


I am so sorry Nea...But you would have to be the most boring date on the planet Earth...Sorry...
This Buffalo-area storm is nothing when compared to the Great Blizzard of 1978. Yesterday's storm featured a narrow band of heavy lake-effect snow.

The Great Blizzard of 1978 featured a barometric low of 28.84 mb, -60 degree temperatures, and up to 40 inches of snow driven by 100 mph winds...causing massive drifts that buried homes and stranded people in their cars for 24 hours or more. The blizzard lasted from January 25-27 and affected a five state region. Ground zero was the Ohio Valley...where I happened to be at the time.

The AF base released me late and as I made my way home along I-270...I got stuck in a snow drift.

I waited 24 hours in my 1976 Ford Maverick until a snow plow cleared a lane. There were 50 cars moving behind it and I had to wait my turn to get out.

I just wish people could be more original and creative. We've already hear a thousand "comedians" ask such hilarious questions as, "Where's Al Gore? I need him to shovel my driveway!", or that old knee-slapper, "What happened to Global Warming?" Hyuk, hyuk, hyuk. I'm sure it's only a matter of time before someone posts the following image with the false caption, "Buffalo transit bus passengers stuck on snow-covered roadway":

snow
But, again: meh...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I am so sorry Nea...But you would have to be the most boring date on the planet Earth...Sorry..
Lucky for us both, then, you'll never find out... ;-)
Quoting 162. Treehorn:



Who are you quoting here? I see the quotation marks, but don't see the source...


Sorry, I forgot the link
Quoting 167. Neapolitan:

I just wish people could be more original and creative. We've already hear a thousand "comedians" ask such hilarious questions as, "Where's Al Gore? I need him to shovel my driveway!", or that old knee-slapper, "What happened to Global Warming?" Hyuk, hyuk, hyuk. I'm sure it's only a matter of time before someone posts the following image with the false caption, "Buffalo transit bus passengers stuck on snow-covered roadway":

snow
But, again: meh...Lucky for us both, then, you'll never find out... ;-)


Got that right..... Maybe if you could get rid of that big red zit on your nose you may have a chance...But don't get your hopes up.
Quoting 153. Neapolitan:

Well, the image is at least six years old (Here's a link to a 2009 version.) I don't think anyone is trying to take away anyone else's fun by pointing that out; it's just that it's pretty lazy for someone to claim someone else's creative endeavor as their own. Ya know? I mean, if the guy was really in Buffalo, why not actually stick some beer cans in a door-stopped snowdrift? Can it be that difficult?

Meh...


You don't think pointless comments pointing out a picture of a wall of snow filled with beer cans and and emailing ABC news is taking away anyone's fun..

You guys have a good one..After this discussion, I'm going to have a beer which wasn't in any snow..
Quoting flsky:
I've never been to Buffalo, but do they mountains where they could create ski resorts? They certainly have enough snow!



Not in Buffalo, but not too far away. Here's a link to ski resorts in western N.Y. and surrounding areas.
Link
Quoting 171. ncstorm:



You don't think pointless comments pointing out a picture of a wall of snow filled with beer cans and and emailing ABC news is taking away anyone's fun..

You guys have a good one..After this discussion, I'm going to have a beer which wasn't in any snow..
...ncstorm...It's called self love...
Well, I see the big discussion on the beer in the snow today. If I may add, I don't think those door knobs are manufactured in the US. Also, the rug looks like a Walmart style, and that color was discontinued in October 2004.

Also, the slant of the sun would indicated a time of 2:22 PM, which would impossible, since it was still snowing at the time. :):):):)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Your quotes consistently show up embedded in the post you're quoting, making it difficult to tell where the quote ends and reply begins. The way the new site is laid out, unless you pay attention to where the quote ends and type you reply below that quote box, it's going to show up as part of of the quote. It's not just you, it happens to a lot of people. Just one more way this site makes users figure out how it's supposed to work


updated 7 day forecast for Tampa Bay area. Looks like some decent rain chances for early next week. The GFS is not showing too much rain for the immediate area, but areas in N FL appear slated to get decent totals.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
...ncstorm...It's called self love...
You mean having a beer?
Quoting 144. ncstorm:

Dear ABC News,

You have posted a picture that was created in 2006 that consisted of beer cans and bottles placed in snow. I know this picture existed before the bombogenesis snow of Buffalo, NY because I checked the properties of the picture, I also know that the beer posted in the picture is no longer sold in Buffalo as I zoomed in the picture. In fact while sitting behind my laptop I took 15 minutes out of my life to googled the origin story back from 2006 to prove to my fellow weather enthusiants that I was right.

Please remove the picture and send my cookie to
c/o No Humor, USA..


Don't forget to include all of our names. We want credit, not cookies.
Quoting 153. Neapolitan:

Well, the image is at least six years old (Here's a link to a 2009 version.) I don't think anyone is trying to take away anyone else's fun by pointing that out; it's just that it's pretty lazy for someone to claim someone else's creative endeavor as their own. Ya know? I mean, if the guy was really in Buffalo, why not actually stick some beer cans in a door-stopped snowdrift? Can it be that difficult?

Meh...


They may have still to work a bit in order to reach a freezer this size, but it's already enough for some bottles:



BTW, had to use your coderizer in order to post this :-)
Lake Effect Snow Warning
Statement as of 3:31 PM EST on November 19, 2014
...Lake effect snow warning remains in effect from 11 PM this evening to 1 am EST Friday...

* locations...Erie...Genesee...and Wyoming counties. This includes the Buffalo Metro area. Greatest accumulations expected from South Buffalo to the nearby southern and eastern suburbs extending into the southwest corner of Genesee County and the northwest corner of Wyoming counties.

* Timing...late this evening through overnight Thursday night.

* Accumulations...storm totals of 2 to 3 feet in the most persistent bands. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour in the most intense portion of the band Thursday.

* Winds...west 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph producing significant blowing and drifting snow.

* Visibilities...near zero at times.

* Impacts...heavy lake effect snow will result in very difficult or nearly impossible travel at times in the heaviest portion of the band. If you must travel during the lake effect snow... expect severe winter driving conditions with very low visibility and deep snow cover on roads. Some roads that have been cleared may become impassable again. Do not travel in the most heavily affected areas! Snow loads on buildings may reach critical levels and result in structural failure.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you lose power and plan on running a generator...make sure that the generator is located outdoors and is properly ventilated. Space heaters should also be properly ventilated and used only if they are operating properly. Make sure snow does not block exhausts and fresh air intakes for high efficiency furnaces and water heaters.


2 to 3 more feet of snow!!! its snowing again
Quoting ncstorm:
Global Warming Is Probably Boosting Lake-Effect Snows

By Eric Holthaus



Global Warming has moved from 100 years out...to just 24 hours out?

From October 3rd, 2014
Scientists to ‘fast-track’ evidence linking global warming to wild weather

Looks like scientists are right on schedule to me.

What day this past fall did climate change CHANGE AGAIN to include weather events?...because I remember that climate change excluded them up to this past summer.
Stay classy wunderground.




Quoting 160. sar2401:

In truth, it is slightly skewed. The areas in places like most of the Arctic and broad reaches of northern oceans, there obviously are no ground observations stations, which will give the most accurate temperature readings. The temperatures are estimated solely by satellite readings. However, these readings have been tested by comparing their output with areas of a dense network of observations stations, like the US and most of Europe. The results have shown the estimates are accurate within one degree, so there's is some inaccuracy, but it's small. I was really skeptical of those uninhabited temperature measurements until I read up on the technology behind them.


It's really incredible to think about the scope and scale of what we can currently measure (and fill in with statistical methods for that matter) with such accuracy. The error is low and with each upgrade or change in methodology we decrease the error even more.

We have never had such data and measurements in the history of man...and now you can click a button, download the data, plug it into something like excel and graph away. Punch cards seem like ancient history now.
Quoting 121. RitaEvac:



I think the author is trying to explain that "official temperature readings at locations is why we are seeing hotter temperature readings that is becoming skewed. Giving the impression that the world is heating up, due to urbanization. And the gauges need to be relocated."

I don't know just guessing.


Hi, RitaEvac.

Richard Muller lead a team at Berkley to study the UHI effect. Berkley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST) Study. This research was partially funded by the Koch brothers. Anthony Watts had once stated that he would stand behind the results of the study, no matter what the study revealed. Anthony did not honor his words when the report dismissed the UHI effect inflating the amount of warming that was occurring. Yes, the UHI effect does create higher temperature readings than the rural readings, but both areas showed the same rate of over all warming.
Quoting 182. CycloneOz:



Global Warming has moved from 100 years out...to just 24 hours out?

From October 3rd, 2014
Scientists to %u2018fast-track%u2019 evidence linking global warming to wild weather

Looks like scientists are right on schedule to me.

What day this past fall did climate change CHANGE AGAIN to include weather events?...because I remember that climate change excluded them up to this past summer.


I don't know if you were aware, but scientists have been doing statistical attribution studies for quite some time. It seems now, with the drop in scientific literacy of the general populace as evidenced by comments on this very weather blog, fast tracking these studies seems like a good choice. As for the article by slate, and somehow twisting it to make it seem like an actual published attribution study...well that just being dishonest. You do understand there is a difference between a peer reviewed journal article and an article written by a meteorologist for Slate, right?
Well, the image is at least six years old (Here's a link to a 2009 version.) I don't think anyone is trying to take away anyone else's fun by pointing that out; it's just that it's pretty lazy for someone to claim someone else's creative endeavor as their own. Ya know? I mean, if the guy was really in Buffalo, why not actually stick some beer cans in a door-stopped snowdrift? Can it be that difficult?

Meh...


i find it amusing that someone is getting a kick out of a pic they sent to abc and got it included in their collection.....and if they knew somebody had uploaded it elsewhere it would just add to the humor...not to mention all the comments it garnered
Quoting 181. PalmBeachWeather:




Sorry Grothar...But Mr. Excitement "NEA" is doing what he does best..Talkin' out his A**


Now, now, be nice. Nea is a friend of mine as are you. Although I have to be nicer to you since you have my keys. I try to get along with everyone. Even my 90 year old mother-in-law thinks I'm a peach. She always says, "I think what's his name is a nice guy."

Another two feet possible for Buffalo area.
Quoting 173. PalmBeachWeather:

...ncstorm...It's called self love...
and then the all important " N " word.....And I do not mean the commonly used racial slur
Quoting 189. hydrus:

and then the all important " N " word.....And I do not mean the commonly used racial slur


Lost me hydrus.......Please explain
Quoting 175. sar2401:

Your quotes consistently show up embedded in the post you're quoting, making it difficult to tell where the quote ends and reply begins. The way the new site is laid out, unless you pay attention to where the quote ends and type you reply below that quote box, it's going to show up as part of of the quote. It's not just you, it happens to a lot of people. Just one more way this site makes users figure out how it's supposed to work
I have to click the box for the cursor to show up. I'm not sure how it works on other browsers besides firefox. But yes, you do have to enter text after the end blockquote tag.
LOL..there are some funny folks on here and then there are some that just need to chill..life is too short to be spending your time seeing if a snow beer picture is authentic or not..

I'm out for real..



Quoting 156. barbamz:

it's looking strange for sure


Look at what the dip of the Jet Stream does on the coast of West Africa:



It brings also water vapour into Mauritania, which is better to see in the flash animation here: Link . The whole flow pattern looks weird, reversing in a way. The dip is really far south and the influence of this Jet Stream configuration isn't only manifesting in Europe, but also in Africa. Not in a dramatic way, but nevertheless weird in a way.
Quoting 189. hydrus:

and then the all important " N " word.....And I do not mean the commonly used racial slur


Love riddles... second letter?
Quoting 140. Tropicsweatherpr:

Very very off topic=Here is the Verification of forecast report by CSU of the 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season.

They did ok overall.

I'd call it better than ok. Prediction of 10/4/1 vs. a preliminary actual of 8/6/2, and nearly an exact hit on the ACE number, is just about a perfect seasonal forecast. Well done by pretty much all the other major agencies as well. Turned out to be a very predictable season in terms of the seasonal numbers.
Quoting 181. PalmBeachWeather:




Sorry Grothar...But Mr. Excitement "NEA" is doing what he does best..Talkin' out his A**


You know, I was thinking your life could be better if you just dropped your obsession with him. I know, i know, your probably wondering what else you could do at WU besides complain about Neapoiitan and bring up that lame ice cream joke repeatedly, but I'm guessing with all the links and pictures you could figure something out.
re: Is the jet stream getting weird?

Well, Dr Jeff, let's see what history tells us about this current pattern.
Courtesy of ESRL data - Historical comparison N Hemisphere Temperature Anomalies showing recurring frequency of Alaska Omega Block / PNA pattern leading to Warm Alaska / Cold CONUS temp extremes. Taking a cue from recent records broken both in Alaska and the CONUS simultaneously (old record's year), these are a few examples researched from previous November periods, with a few extremes from past Januarys added. Note the entire monthly mean for Nov 1957 - and especially further back - Jan 1940 and Jan 1930 show the anomalous contrasting warm / cold pattern locked in.

Nov 13-16 2014

Nov 12-16 1986

Nov 10-16 1976

January 9-14 1962 (Brutally cold across Gulf South!)

Continuing further back in time...

Nov 15-18 1959

November 1957 - monthly mean

Nov 9-13 1950

Jan 30-Feb 2 1949

Jan 22-25 1948

January 1940 - monthly mean

January 1930 - monthly mean

This is certainly not a comprehensive list, examples abound. The lengthy historical record of past high-amplitude ridge-trough extremes illustrates the improbability - at the least, a difficult task - with claims of extreme pattern shift / jet stream amplification attributed to AGW. Appears we can expect the precedented as well%u2026 with or without a typhoon%u2026 ;)

Quoting Naga5000:
It seems now, with the drop in scientific literacy of the general populace as evidenced by comments on this very weather blog, fast tracking these studies seems like a good choice.


Are you Gruber-judging us? :)
..one can shovel off to Buffalo?

Snow could move Bills game to Monday:

Link
Quoting 188. Grothar:



Now, now, be nice. Nea is a friend of mine as are you. Although I have to be nicer to you since you have my keys. I try to get along with everyone. Even my 90 year old mother-in-law thinks I'm a peach. She always says, "I think what's his name is a nice guy."

Another two feet possible for Buffalo area.


Sorry Gro... The older I get , the more some people really get to me...
Quoting 193. ChrisHamburg:



Look at what the dip of the Jet Stream does on the coast of West Africa:



It brings also water vapour into Mauritania, which is better to see in the flash animation here: Link . The whole flow pattern looks weird, reversing in a way. The dip is really far south and the influence of this Jet Stream configuration isn't only manifesting in Europe, but also in Africa. Not in a dramatic way, but nevertheless weird in a way.


Yes, I've noticed this. It should bring strong rains to northwestern Africa tomorrow. Click the link and get the "animation".
That video of upflow in clouds off lake erie is rather spectacular!
What events? Like hurricanes which have decreased in the Atlantic basin in the past few years, or tornadoes which have also had less frequency in North America in the past couple years? Please cite your evidence please and not from Hansen who has been proven to be a liar and fraud
Quoting 94. DCSwithunderscores:



What happened to global warming? You can tell him that it got worse. We just had our record hottest 12-calendar-month period globally, according to NCDC. There is some evidence that it is starting to make some types of extreme weather events more common or worse. Arctic outbreaks could become more common in some areas as a result of global warming.
Quoting 204. Midweststorm:

That video of upflow in clouds off lake erie is rather spectacular!
I liked that too shows perfectly how the heat of the lakes interacted with the cold air


Alas, October was the Warmest ever recorded as well.
So what does one do when they have all this snow....A little imagination goes a long way.

You build a bar......January 21, 1978 Oswego NY
Quoting sar2401:
Your quotes consistently show up embedded in the post you're quoting, making it difficult to tell where the quote ends and reply begins. The way the new site is laid out, unless you pay attention to where the quote ends and type you reply below that quote box, it's going to show up as part of of the quote. It's not just you, it happens to a lot of people. Just one more way this site makes users figure out how it's supposed to work


This is one of the reasons I still use the classic site.
Quoting 196. Naga5000:



You know, I was thinking your life could be better if you just dropped your obsession with him. I know, i know, your probably wondering what else you could do at WU besides complain about Neapoiitan and bring up that lame ice cream joke repeatedly, but I'm guessing with all the links and pictures you could figure something out.



Naga.....You are absolutely correct.... I am not in the best of moods lately... Things are not going well with me medically...The same problem I had a little over a year ago are back... I can be a real bitch and I am sorry. One more week and I will find out the results. If I get out of hand please forgive me...
Quoting 100. Naga5000:



Someone should let him know that the data sets are adjusted for UHI, and regardless, show the same trend when unadjusted.

"When compiling temperature records, NASA GISS go to great pains to remove any possible influence from Urban Heat Island Effect. They compare urban long term trends to nearby rural trends. They then adjust the urban trend so it matches the rural trend. The process is described in detail on the NASA website (Hansen 2001)"

and

"This confirms a peer review study by the NCDC (Peterson 2003) that did statistical analysis of urban and rural temperature anomalies and concluded "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures... Industrial sections of towns may well be significantly warmer than rural sites, but urban meteorological observations are more likely to be made within park cool islands than industrial regions." "

Not shooting the messenger, just asking to messenger to bring back a response. :)


Someone should also let him know that including as well as the urban heat island, there is also an urban cold island. The same properties of cities that lead to localized increased temperatures during the day also contribute to cooler temperatures at night (asphalt/cement/etc. are good radiators but poor heat sinks). Overall, there is almost no impact.

Regardless, the bulk of the warming is happening across the mid to high latitudes which has very few cities. It's hard to have an Urban Heat Island in the middle of the arctic tundra.



Coal Rush in India Could Tip Balance on Climate Change
By GARDINER HARRISNOV. 17, 2014


“India is going to use coal because that’s what it has,” said Chandra Bhushan, deputy director of the Delhi-based Center for Science and Environment, a prominent environmental group. “Its strategy is ‘all of the above,’ just like in the U.S.”
Quoting 212. CycloneOz:

Since we're day-to-day now with global warming, this NEW SERVICE should be considered value added.

Update from Climate Change Spotter Three degrees South of the Equator:

On November 19, 2014...the climate remained stable in this area of the planet. All is well at sixteen bells.


Well, Germany's temps weren't normal in October (as in many recent months and in current November as well):


Anomaly map for October.
Quoting CycloneOz:


This is one of the reasons I still use the classic site.


Me too... even so, I changed all the images in my post #197 to links as the "preview" wasn't resizing 'em... So here goes a test (I'll remove if image blows out the blog margins).

ESRL January 1930 N Hemi Temperature Anomalies


Quoting Xyrus2000:


Someone should also let him know that including as well as the urban heat island, there is also an urban cold island. The same properties of cities that lead to localized increased temperatures during the day also contribute to cooler temperatures at night (asphalt/cement/etc. are good radiators but poor heat sinks). Overall, there is almost no impact.

Regardless, the bulk of the warming is happening across the mid to high latitudes which has very few cities. It's hard to have an Urban Heat Island in the middle of the arctic tundra.


No Heat Island in cities at night?
Residents of drought-stricken California town to get first hot shower in months

Portable showers will be set up in a church parking lot
Hundreds of households have been forced to take sponge baths from buckets
Wells in the Central Valley town started running dry early this year

Link
Quoting 216. DocNDswamp:



Me too... even so, I changed all the images in my post #197 to links as the "preview" wasn't resizing 'em... So here's goes a test (I'll remove if image blows out the blog margins).

ESRL January 1930 N Hemi Temperature Anomalies




The upgraded sites auto re-size to comments now...Doc,

..is OK.

Quoting barbamz:


Well, Germany's temps weren't normal in October (as in many recent months and in current November as well):


Anomaly map for October.


Sorry, but this NEW SERVICE does not have an official climate change spotter at this location.

Please try again in the future.
Quoting 98. hydrus:

You have all this.? A Masters earned in 1967.? Learned of AGW over 35 years ago.? You read a few books on weather and climate.? Then attended your first conference which had a session on climate back in 1979.?.You post two NOAA sites , And you have 55 comments since October of 2006.....Your post lacks content for someone with that kind of background, and judging by your member date , you dont have much time to discuss real scientific evidence.

Scientific evidence? From your rather ad hominem reply, I presume that you agree with Dr. Masters when he wrote:
This configuration allows cold air to spill out of the Arctic behind the trough into the Central U.S., and be replaced by anomalously warm air flowing northwards along the West Coast of the U.S. deep into the Arctic.


I was simply attempting to point out that the southward flowing cold air over the US was the result of the poleward flow of warm air over the Pacific, not the other way around. That poleward flow of warm air also pushed Nuri along with it. Do you disagree with that admittedly simplistic view?
Quoting 218. bwtranch:

Residents of drought-stricken California town to get first hot shower in months

Portable showers will be set up in a church parking lot
Hundreds of households have been forced to take sponge baths from buckets
Wells in the Central Valley town started running dry early this year

Link



That's so sad
Good Afternoon Class!
Quoting 211. PalmBeachWeather:




Naga.....You are absolutely correct.... I am not in the best of moods lately... Things are not going well with me medically...The same problem I had a little over a year ago are back... I can be a real bitch and I am sorry. One more week and I will find out the results. If I get out of hand please forgive me...


I hope that you hear back positive news, PBW. I am wishing the best for you!
Quoting 223. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Good Afternoon Class!




LOL....One of your students "ME" has been in the corner with a dunce cap
Quoting 218. bwtranch:

Residents of drought-stricken California town to get first hot shower in months

Portable showers will be set up in a church parking lot
Hundreds of households have been forced to take sponge baths from buckets
Wells in the Central Valley town started running dry early this year

Link



That's gonna be some stinky drainwater!
Quoting 224. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I hope that you hear back positive news, PBW. I am wishing the best for you!


Thanks Rookie... It was scary last year, I think I emailed Gro at that time.
Quoting 225. PalmBeachWeather:





LOL....One of your students "ME" has been in the corner with a dunce cap


I believe we have all been there at one time or another!
Urban Heat Island - Wiki

An urban heat island (UHI) is a metropolitan area that is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas due to human activities. The phenomenon was first investigated and described by Luke Howard in the 1810s, although he was not the one to name the phenomenon.[1] The temperature difference usually is larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak. UHI is most noticeable during the summer and winter. The main cause of the urban heat island effect is from the modification of land surfaces, which use materials that effectively store short-wave radiation.[2][3] Waste heat generated by energy usage is a secondary contributor.[4] As a population center grows, it tends to expand its area and increase its average temperature. The less-used term heat island refers to any area, populated or not, which is consistently hotter than the surrounding area.[5]
Quoting 228. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I believe we have all been there at one time or another!
Thanks Joe... I do need the support.
Quoting 217. Sfloridacat5:



No Heat Island in cities at night?


"Someone should also let him know that including as well as the urban heat island, there is also an urban cold island. The same properties of cities that lead to localized increased temperatures during the day also contribute to cooler temperatures at night (asphalt/cement/etc. are good radiators but poor heat sinks). Overall, there is almost no impact.

Regardless, the bulk of the warming is happening across the mid to high latitudes which has very few cities. It's hard to have an Urban Heat Island in the middle of the arctic tundra."

There is some impact, not as much as during the summer, but the statement that asphalt/concrete/etc. are poor heat reservoirs is wrong. The specific heat of these materials is quite high. The only common substance that is higher is water. The urban heat island effect is very real no matter what the season.
Quoting 211. PalmBeachWeather:




Naga.....You are absolutely correct.... I am not in the best of moods lately... Things are not going well with me medically...The same problem I had a little over a year ago are back... I can be a real bitch and I am sorry. One more week and I will find out the results. If I get out of hand please forgive me...


Best of luck to ya on the medical stuff PBW........been there and still there doing that....always waiting. Just had a new ICD installed in upper left chest at the VA Hospital in San Diego.......now they want me to come in again, knock me out, put heart in a bad rythm and shock me to make sure it works......woulda been nice if they did it all the first time. Anyway...GOOD LUCK!
Quoting 194. PalmBeachWeather:



Love riddles... second letter?
" A " and it ends with " T " and it has ten letters.
Quoting 232. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Best of luck to ya on the medical stuff PBW........been there and still there doing that....always waiting. Just had a new ICD installed in upper left chest.......now they want me to come in again, knock me out, put heart in a bad rythm and shock me to make sure it works......woulda been nice if they did it all the first time. Anyway...GOOD LUCK!

Thanks so much Joe...That means a lot...Check your pm
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Someone should also let him know that including as well as the urban heat island, there is also an urban cold island. The same properties of cities that lead to localized increased temperatures during the day also contribute to cooler temperatures at night (asphalt/cement/etc. are good radiators but poor heat sinks). Overall, there is almost no impact.

Regardless, the bulk of the warming is happening across the mid to high latitudes which has very few cities. It's hard to have an Urban Heat Island in the middle of the arctic tundra.


Good grief, that has to be one of the most dismissive, denialist statements I've read considering the wealth of solid evidence available, accepted science going back decades.

LOL, read the results from this study published last year about the growing UHI impact in Nuuk, Greenland - In Greenland, an Urban Heat Island Is Growing Fast...
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I saw the story on the Today Show just a week or two ago. I'm just going from what they said. I personally was surprised by the information.

Here's a link to a possibly related story by NBC.

The 10 Best Cities to Relocate to

Pittsburgh, PA
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Omaha, NE/Council Bluffs, IA
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Austin-Round Rock, TX
Des Monies-West Des Moines, IA
Madison, WI
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN
Denver-Aurora, CO
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN

2. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY

Now nicknamed “the city of trees,” Buffalo had a rough transition period into the twenty-first century. Its current economy is moving from industrial business to tourism, while the healthcare and education industries are growing quickly. Unemployment is at 8.3%, which is lower than in the rest of the states. With a prolific arts scene and an affordable cost of living that is 14.4% below the national average, the city is ideal for people looking to move to a place with plenty of cultural events. There are over 20 parks in Buffalo, along with Niagara Falls, it is quickly becoming a greener, more active city. For sports fans, the Buffalo Bills and Buffalo Sabres will provide plenty of athletic entertainment.

Link
This is what Sperling uses for a methodology for those lists. The list on CNBC was published in 2010 -

Methodology

To find the best cities for relocation, Sperling’s Best Places chose several important factors: unemployment, cost of living, crime rates, population health, and cultural events. The ten best cities to move to all have lower than average house prices and unemployment rates below the national average (10.2%). Safety and health are essential for a happy community, as well as leisurely activities. Sports teams, arts, and other forms of culture are crucial to a city’s livability and well-being.

In addition to population and other metrics, stability was an important factor because it indicates a city’s hardiness. According to Bert, "We're a big believer in the concept of stability, where there is modest, controllable growth. Big booms lead to disruption, and ultimately big busts. Neither is good for livability."


In 2010, Unemployment in Buffalo was 8.8%, so it was below the national average. In 2014, the national unemployment rate had fallen to a theoretical 5.6%. Buffalo still had an unemployment rate of 8.6%, hardly an improvement over four years. Buffalo has added no manufacturing jobs during that time, and the only area of job growth was local, state and Federal government jobs, which accounted for over 15% of the labor force.

The cost of living is low because Buffalo (or Cleveland, depending on the survey) has the highest rates of urban poverty in the country, with almost 27% of the population below the poverty line. The percentage of high school graduates is also one of the lowest in the country for a major city. There are 10,000 abandoned homes in the city, and the current administration's proudest claim is tearing down 2,000 of them, with a goal to tear down 5,000 more. This is creating huge areas of the city that have turned in plains, with wildlife like beavers, deer, and bears returning to the inner city.

The population was 580,000 in 1950. It's 250,000 ii 2014, a decline of almost 60%. The decline has been unabated for 64 years. Health care is the second biggest employer in the city, as the low level of average wages and costs for hospitalization have created a boom in medical tourism as Canadians cross the border for cheap healthcare.

Given Sperling's predilection for stability and "controlled growth", Buffalo ranks high, since there's no growth and no chance for some big boom. There are some wold class museums and art galleries, located near the heath care district. Unfortunately, they are also located in the most crime ridden parts of town, forcing these institutions to create their own private police force to stop employees and visitors from being robbed and killed. The Buffalo Police Department is so understaffed and so busy with violent crimes. They do have the Buffalo Bill's however. Still, it's pretty hard to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
Quoting 233. hydrus:

" A " and it ends with " T " and it has ten letters.
Any other hints? lol
Quoting sar2401:
This is what Sperling uses for a methodology for those lists. The list on CNBC was published in 2010 -

Methodology

To find the best cities for relocation, Sperling%u2019s Best Places chose several important factors: unemployment, cost of living, crime rates, population health, and cultural events. The ten best cities to move to all have lower than average house prices and unemployment rates below the national average (10.2%). Safety and health are essential for a happy community, as well as leisurely activities. Sports teams, arts, and other forms of culture are crucial to a city%u2019s livability and well-being.

In addition to population and other metrics, stability was an important factor because it indicates a city%u2019s hardiness. According to Bert, "We're a big believer in the concept of stability, where there is modest, controllable growth. Big booms lead to disruption, and ultimately big busts. Neither is good for livability."


In 2010, Unemployment in Buffalo was 8.8%, so it was below the national average. In 2014, the national unemployment rate had fallen to a theoretical 5.6%. Buffalo still had an unemployment rate of 8.6%, hardly an improvement over four years. Buffalo has added no manufacturing jobs during that time, and the only area of job growth was local, state and Federal government jobs, which accounted for over 15% of the labor force.

The cost of living is low because Buffalo (or Cleveland, depending on the survey) has the highest rates of urban poverty in the country, with almost 27% of the population below the poverty line. The percentage of high school graduates is also one of the lowest in the country for a major city. There are 10,000 abandoned homes in the city, and the current administration's proudest claim is tearing down 2,000 of them, with a goal to tear down 5,000 more. This is creating huge areas of the city that have turned in plains, with wildlife like beavers, deer, and bears returning to the inner city.

The population was 580,000 in 1950. It's 250,000 ii 2014, a decline of almost 60%. The decline has been unabated for 64 years. Health care is the second biggest employer in the city, as the low level of average wages and costs for hospitalization have created a boom in medical tourism as Canadians cross the border for cheap healthcare.

Given Sperling's predilection for stability and "controlled growth", Buffalo ranks high, since there's no growth and no chance for some big boom. There are some wold class museums and art galleries, located near the heath care district. Unfortunately, they are also located in the most crime ridden parts of town, forcing these institutions to create their own private police force to stop employees and visitors from being robbed and killed. The Buffalo Police Department is so understaffed and so busy with violent crimes. They do have the Buffalo Bill's however. Still, it's pretty hard to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.


I think the major factor is the cost of living.

Forbes made Buffalo, 2014 America's Most Affordable City.
1. Buffalo, N.Y.
MSA: Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Population: 1,135,509
Housing Opportunity Index: 88.5
Cost-of-living index: 96.1

Link
Quoting 198. CycloneOz:



Are you Gruber-judging us? :)



Judging is subjective. This isn't political ideology or a beauty contest. There's nothing subjective about determining someone's scientific knowledge and understanding. You either know it or you don't. There's no bonus points for creativity.

There are several regulars on here (including yourself) that believe, against all scientific evidence to the contrary, that somehow the laws of thermodynamics do not apply to the climate system. You give no rational or scientific explanation for this. It's simply a belief, like how a child believes in Santa or the tooth fairy.

Objectively, this implies a lack of fundamental scientific knowledge and understanding. By choice, since even when people helpfully post links to resources that could help remedy this lack they are dismissed by invoking bizarre conspiracy theories, additional incorrect statements/assumptions, and other nonsense as justification for remaining ignorant.

Sadly, this behavior is fairly commonplace. In fact, it even has a name" The Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Quoting 220. CycloneOz:



Sorry, but this NEW SERVICE does not have an official climate change spotter at this location.

Please try again in the future.


Oz, I'm here in Germany in person for already several decades and I can back up these observations from our National Weather Service DWD just by looking at my still blossoming flowers on my balcony in November! (and they did this all over last winter which is more than unusual!). And outside my place wine growers are going to change the sort of grapes they grow in order to meet the constantly warming climate.

Good night guys, have a nice evening over there!
Quoting 211. PalmBeachWeather:




Naga.....You are absolutely correct.... I am not in the best of moods lately... Things are not going well with me medically...The same problem I had a little over a year ago are back... I can be a real bitch and I am sorry. One more week and I will find out the results. If I get out of hand please forgive me...


So you are saying that your medical condition made you post the same tired, unfunny, comment day after day after day? Really. ? Well as my kids used to say when they were younger.....whatever!
Quoting 205. sanflee76:

What events? Like hurricanes which have decreased in the Atlantic basin in the past few years, or tornadoes which have also had less frequency in North America in the past couple years? Please cite your evidence please and not from Hansen who has been proven to be a liar and fraud


These extreme weather events would include extremes in precipitation, extremes in drought, and extremes in heatwaves. I might post some references later if I have time.
Quoting 239. Xyrus2000:



Judging is subjective. This isn't political ideology or a beauty contest. There's nothing subjective about determining someone's scientific knowledge and understanding. You either know it or you don't. There's no bonus points for creativity.

There are several regulars on here (including yourself) that believe, against all scientific evidence to the contrary, that somehow the laws of thermodynamics do not apply to the climate system. You give no rational or scientific explanation for this. It's simply a belief, like how a child believes in Santa or the tooth fairy.

Objectively, this implies a lack of fundamental scientific knowledge and understanding. By choice, since even when people helpfully post links to resources that could help remedy this lack they are dismissed by invoking bizarre conspiracy theories, additional incorrect statements/assumptions, and other nonsense as justification for remaining ignorant.

Sadly, this behavior is fairly commonplace. In fact, it even has a name" The Dunning-Kruger Effect.

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias whereby unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their ineptitude. Conversely, highly skilled individuals tend to underestimate their relative competence, erroneously assuming that tasks which are easy for them are also easy for others.[1]
Quoting 235. DocNDswamp:



Good grief, that has to be one of the most dismissive, denialist statements I've read considering the wealth of solid evidence available, accepted science going back decades.

LOL, read the results from this study published last year about the growing UHI impact in Nuuk, Greenland - In Greenland, an Urban Heat Island Is Growing Fast...



Yeah, because Nuuk is exactly the same as New York, Boston, Los Angeles, and other concrete jungles.

Here: Link. With plenty of references to peer reviewed research. The difference between rural and urban temperature trends are almost non-existent. The upward trend in temperatures is there and the same magnitude whether or not cities are included.
Quoting 240. barbamz:



Oz, I'm here in Germany in person for already several decades and I can back up these observations from our National Weather Service DWD just by looking at my still blossoming flowers on my balcony in November! (and they did this all over last winter which is more than unusual!). And outside my place wine growers are going to change the sort of grapes they grow in order to meet the constantly warming climate.

Good night guys, have a nice evening over there!
its ok barb somethings coming and its going to be big and there is nothing anyone on the planet can do to stop it
Quoting Gearsts:
Signature El Niño.
Quoting 236. sar2401:

This is what Sperling uses for a methodology for those lists. The list on CNBC was published in 2010 -

Methodology

To find the best cities for relocation, Sperling’s Best Places chose several important factors: unemployment, cost of living, crime rates, population health, and cultural events. The ten best cities to move to all have lower than average house prices and unemployment rates below the national average (10.2%). Safety and health are essential for a happy community, as well as leisurely activities. Sports teams, arts, and other forms of culture are crucial to a city’s livability and well-being.

In addition to population and other metrics, stability was an important factor because it indicates a city’s hardiness. According to Bert, "We're a big believer in the concept of stability, where there is modest, controllable growth. Big booms lead to disruption, and ultimately big busts. Neither is good for livability."


In 2010, Unemployment in Buffalo was 8.8%, so it was below the national average. In 2014, the national unemployment rate had fallen to a theoretical 5.6%. Buffalo still had an unemployment rate of 8.6%, hardly an improvement over four years. Buffalo has added no manufacturing jobs during that time, and the only area of job growth was local, state and Federal government jobs, which accounted for over 15% of the labor force.

The cost of living is low because Buffalo (or Cleveland, depending on the survey) has the highest rates of urban poverty in the country, with almost 27% of the population below the poverty line. The percentage of high school graduates is also one of the lowest in the country for a major city. There are 10,000 abandoned homes in the city, and the current administration's proudest claim is tearing down 2,000 of them, with a goal to tear down 5,000 more. This is creating huge areas of the city that have turned in plains, with wildlife like beavers, deer, and bears returning to the inner city.

The population was 580,000 in 1950. It's 250,000 ii 2014, a decline of almost 60%. The decline has been unabated for 64 years. Health care is the second biggest employer in the city, as the low level of average wages and costs for hospitalization have created a boom in medical tourism as Canadians cross the border for cheap healthcare.

Given Sperling's predilection for stability and "controlled growth", Buffalo ranks high, since there's no growth and no chance for some big boom. There are some wold class museums and art galleries, located near the heath care district. Unfortunately, they are also located in the most crime ridden parts of town, forcing these institutions to create their own private police force to stop employees and visitors from being robbed and killed. The Buffalo Police Department is so understaffed and so busy with violent crimes. They do have the Buffalo Bill's however. Still, it's pretty hard to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
All of those best/worst lists and rankings are virtually useless. All they amount to is what a computer spits out based upon the human-bias/personal opinion makeup of the computer program. The best of this or the worst of that all comes down to personal preference and nothing more. For instance, someone who loves the specter of being buried under six feet of snow would obviously rank Buffalo, NY high on their list of cities for relocation. Others may not agree... and so it goes.
249. VR46L
For Next week

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its ok barb somethings coming and its going to be big and there is nothing anyone on the planet can do to stop it


Yo Keep. Something is always "coming along." But I absolutely agree with you that there is nothing anyone on the planet can do to stop whatever comes along.
Quoting 211. PalmBeachWeather:




Naga.....You are absolutely correct.... I am not in the best of moods lately... Things are not going well with me medically...The same problem I had a little over a year ago are back... I can be a real bitch and I am sorry. One more week and I will find out the results. If I get out of hand please forgive me...
Geez... I thought u had gotten that worked out.... :o/ ... hope you get hopeful results. Even old grouches are appreciated, [or in Grothar's case at least tolerated /grin/ ] around here.

Speaking from recent personal experience, I fully understand how a poor wellness situation has both physically and emotionally depressing impacts.... it's hard to keep the "cheer" going sometimes.

252. VR46L
Deepening low off my coast



253. VR46L
Image from Capital Gang Twitter feed



For the images police

***********Disclaimer****************

I don't know if it was taken today , last year , 10 years ago its a cool image .....
Quoting 247. Andrebrooks:

Signature El Niño.


Quoting 232. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Best of luck to ya on the medical stuff PBW........been there and still there doing that....always waiting. Just had a new ICD installed in upper left chest at the VA Hospital in San Diego.......now they want me to come in again, knock me out, put heart in a bad rythm and shock me to make sure it works......woulda been nice if they did it all the first time. Anyway...GOOD LUCK!
You'll be ok. There's no pain or physical discomfort. I had the same experience years ago. The thought of this MIPS procedure is uncomfortable, to say the least, to me. But it's routine(for the docs) with rare complications. You'll be in and out within 24 hours, maybe as few as 6-8 hours. The corporate rep from Medtronic or St. Jude will be there by your bedside to oversee the whole thing...which I found odd and the most disconcerting part of the procedure. Be well.
Quoting 224. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I hope that you hear back positive news, PBW. I am wishing the best for you!
Me too, + prayers...

Quoting 242. capeflorida:



So you are saying that your medical condition made you post the same tired, unfunny, comment day after day after day? Really. ? Well as my kids used to say when they were younger.....whatever!
Maybe so, but a "yes" answer is not impossible. There's a lot of stuff going on out there medically that we still don't fully understand.... kinda like wx and climate systems....

Right now I am just sick already of this three-day drizzle fest we've been having. It's been too grey for my taste. At least yesterday we got one good downpour. Today was dull.

While I am not advocating for a hurricane strike, at least they add a little more tension to the wx situation ..... :o/

[Okay, I'm whining and whinging now, so I think I'll stop .... ]

Quoting 205. sanflee76:

What events? Like hurricanes which have decreased in the Atlantic basin in the past few years, or tornadoes which have also had less frequency in North America in the past couple years? Please cite your evidence please and not from Hansen who has been proven to be a liar and fraud


PS Since you brought up tropical cyclones, below is a link to an article from Nature that shows an increase in their intensity. Regarding your claim that hurricanes have decreased in the Atlantic Basin in the last few years, note that one of the favorite tricks in pseudo-science is to try to derive a long term trend from a short time period, or using limited data that support a view while neglecting other data. For example "a few years" isn't a sufficiently long period to determine such a trend, especially considering the volatility in these numbers (also don't be fooled by sources which start with a high year, such as 2005, to skew the trend). Also, by choosing just one part of the globe, while neglecting the rest, it is easier to get a preferred result. The fact that you made that statement suggests to me that you might not have realized this, and that you may therefore be vulnerable to pseudo-science arguments. So be careful of your sources.

Link
BTW, anybody noticed Caribboy hasn't been on recently complaining about lack of rain and storm activity generally????

:o)
Quoting 252. VR46L:

Deepening low off my coast




Looks like a "wild Irish gale" in the making ....
260. VR46L
Quoting 258. BahaHurican:

BTW, anybody noticed Caribboy hasn't been on recently complaining about lack of rain and storm activity generally????

:o)


He got his storm :)

Quoting 250. CycloneOz:



Yo Keep. Something is always "coming along." But I absolutely agree with you that there is nothing anyone on the planet can do to stop whatever comes along.


but these days
its always something never seen before
that's the problem and if theses events increase quickly
over a short period of time say 15 years
from say 1 event every few years
to a couple every 2
too a few every six months
so on and so forth
would it not indicate
that something is out of wack
or should I just convince myself
that everything is fine
and just go along
without giving it
a second thought
Quoting 247. Andrebrooks:
Signature El Nino




Pretty solidly in El Nino territory at this point.
Quoting 260. VR46L:



He got his storm :)


Yeah.... it feels like I got his whinge .... lol ...
Quoting 260. VR46L:



He got his storm :)


yep he wont ask again for awhile
Quoting 211. PalmBeachWeather:




Naga.....You are absolutely correct.... I am not in the best of moods lately... Things are not going well with me medically...The same problem I had a little over a year ago are back... I can be a real bitch and I am sorry. One more week and I will find out the results. If I get out of hand please forgive me...


I am very sorry to hear about your health. I hope you feel better, PBW, sincerely.
Quoting 264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep he wont ask again for awhile
Maybe you were off for a few days but he was asking for more within 24 hours. Bigger and badder as far as he was concerned. Apparantly he has no interest or regard for how storms effect the economy of his island.
Quoting 266. CosmicEvents:

Maybe you were off for a few days but he was asking for more within 24 hours. Bigger and badder as far as he was concerned. Apparantly he has no interest or regard for how storms effect the economy of his island.
one day he will
268. MahFL
Quoting 240. barbamz:



And outside my place wine growers are going to change the sort of grapes they grow in order to meet the constantly warming climate.

Good night guys, have a nice evening over there!


When Germans are changing their grapes you know they are serious, and warming is real. Although France is famous for wine, Germany has a large wine industry too.
269. MahFL
Doom ! heading east...

Quoting 251. BahaHurican:

Geez... I thought u had gotten that worked out.... :o/ ... hope you get hopeful results. Even old grouches are appreciated, [or in Grothar's case at least tolerated /grin/ ] around here.

Speaking from recent personal experience, I fully understand how a poor wellness situation has both physically and emotionally depressing impacts.... it's hard to keep the "cheer" going sometimes.




Thanks so much Baha...
271. vis0

Quoting 65. bwtranch:


I have a Master's degree in environmental science specializing in climatology. What you wrote looks and sounds like something out of a -High- Junior High School textbook on basic Physical Geography.
So I'll take your statement to mean that you don't have any.


The above is a tmp-pic-txt (from a previous blog long ago edited to fit today's reply) which will be gone once the link become inactive in case some visit this comment and see only an img placeholder.



This is from the point of view of someone whom had new theories (1960s-70s) but whose mind could not learn enough (i'm wired differently) to get a phD (some of my ideas were rejected by NYiT/Stony Brook 1970s-80, during my "college tries" .  Years later some of those ideas have earned others awards (may goodness bless them for their hard work) as Nobel prizes. Some things i tried to share back in the 1970s were spaghetti theory, clear matter is 45% dark matter ~22% ascending 22% add the rest which is ~11% for simple physics that's the uni-verse, 3 planets that have complex life & how REAL crop circles(<2% of the recorded) show the direction of these planets location, black holes theories as they turn light into "sound", the missing links as related to ice ages = brain radon ages = mutations, How oceans are moved by the buoyancy of salt's & gases (sent to WxCh Jim Cantore 1990 as ocean conveyor belt theory never heard from Mr. Cantore,.8 types of "angled lightnings" that goes into near space (sprites are 1 of the 8, each "colour" has a specific starting angle, orange spheres that are 45' in diameter is what brings onto a complex planet a plasma form of H20 and also bring you (complex animal) onto earth and you thought it was a stork ;-P and so on, try reading my blog before its not) . Just to name a few of my 1960s crazy theories.  i am Dyslexic (self taught to figure out words), colourblind in one eye (i liked, it helped my photography) , and almost died 3 times age 4 (choked on gum turned blue father got me back shaking me), age 6 (clinically dead, in ambulance after drowning in a pool near the old Yankee stadium) & 8 (mistake with wrong gas during tonsillectomy, as a kid, though  enjoyed all the out of body experiences and the ice creami got after removing the tonsils) Just 'cause it "ain't" understood means it should not be studied. So i post this for any youngster passing by and reading an opinion that might turn them away from their imagined ideas.

Quoting 242. capeflorida:



So you are saying that your medical condition made you post the same tired, unfunny, comment day after day after day? Really. ? Well as my kids used to say when they were younger.....whatever!


whatever
Quoting 242. capeflorida:



So you are saying that your medical condition made you post the same tired, unfunny, comment day after day after day? Really. ? Well as my kids used to say when they were younger.....whatever!


And thank you so much capeflorida...Hope you have a healthy life
Quoting 265. Naga5000:



I am very sorry to hear about your health. I hope you feel better, PBW, sincerely.

Thank you so much Naga
I am doing my best to get to 6,000 posts ...LOL
Thank you all..........I made it, sorry for being a total bitch sometimes....
Quoting 277. PalmBeachWeather:

I am doing my best to get to 6,000 posts ...LOL


OK, then you are pretty close. Congrats on that and hope you get better.
Quoting 278. PalmBeachWeather:

Thank you all..........I made it, sorry for being a total bitch sometimes....


Congrats on 6000 posts and i hope you get better soon. :)
Apparently the Earth has taken care of the AGW issue!LOL
Quoting 273. VAbeachhurricanes:

img style="max-width: 501px;" src="http://i.imgur.com/BmCYecz.gif">
u r so wrong 4 dis ....

lol ....
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:36 PM PST on November 19, 2014
Scattered Clouds
70.3 °F
Scattered Clouds
Heat Index: 75 °F
Humidity: 25%
Dew Point: 33 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 30.03 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
High was 74.0F, Low was 51.8F
Forecast Discussion ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190958 SPC AC 190958 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014 VALID 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. DAY 4...BEFORE A RETURN TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DAYS 5-7. THE ECWMF...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY /DAY 4/ BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS SUNDAY. SATURDAY /DAY 4/...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH TX IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH WRN TX EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A FEW ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER WCNTRL TX EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER SCNTRL TX WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS...AND CONTINUE TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE EVENING WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST. HOWEVER...INLAND ADVANCE OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MIGHT BECOME LIMITED BY DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE NWRN GULF. SUNDAY /DAY 5/...SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FROM SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES TO THE ERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING EXTENT TO WHICH ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 11/19/2014


Dagnabit! Our forecast now calls for rain every day until next Tuesday!!!

[bangs forehead on desk]
Quoting 281. overwash12:

Apparently the Earth has taken care of the AGW issue!LOL


Yes, it indeed has, if the entirety of the Earth was the contiguous United States.

Maybe its time to update my map...
Wednesday11/1941|23F

Wed0% Precip.

Clear. Lows overnight in the low 20s.

WedNight0% Precip.

Clear skies. Low 23F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday11/2037|24F

Thu0% Precip.

A mainly sunny sky. High 37F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

ThuNight0% Precip.

Clear skies. Low 24F. Winds light and variable.

Friday11/2140|34F

Fri10% Precip.

Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High near 40F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph.

FriNight60% Precip.

Steady light rain in the evening. Showers continuing late. Low 34F. Winds SSE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Saturday11/2254|44F

Sat70% Precip.

Showers early becoming a steady light rain later in the day. High 54F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

SatNight100% Precip.

Partly cloudy skies early will give way to cloudy skies and rain later during the night. Low 44F. Winds SE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near a quarter of an inch.

Sunday11/2354|39F

Sun100% Precip.

Rain likely. High 54F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall near a half an inch.

SunNight50% Precip.

Cloudy with occasional rain showers. Low 39F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Monday11/2444|31F

Mon50% Precip.

Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day. High 44F. Winds WSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

MonNight10% Precip.

Clear skies. Low 31F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday11/2538|27F

Tue0% Precip.

Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 38F. Winds W at 15 to 25 mph.

TueNight0% Precip.

A mostly clear sky. Low 27F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday11/2640|30F

Wed0% Precip.

Mostly sunny skies. High near 40F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph.

WedNight0% Precip.

A few clouds from time to time. Low near 30F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday11/2746|31F

Thu0% Precip.

Sunshine and some clouds. High 46F. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph.

ThuNight50% Precip.

Increasing clouds with showers arriving sometime after midnight. Low 31F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

Friday11/2842|26F

Fri60% Precip.

Rain likely. High 42F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.

FriNight20% Precip.

Clear skies. Low 26F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.


Wow, a 2 day warmup! Typical. Not only that, but it's raining during that time. St. Louis weather sucks.
Not as cold as I expected. 30/52 with a freeze duration of 8 hours. Dewpoint fell to 9 during the afternoon.
Quoting VR46L:
Image from Capital Gang Twitter feed



For the images police

***********Disclaimer****************

I don't know if it was taken today , last year , 10 years ago its a cool image .....
Just provide a link to the image. As long as it's not from some drunk on Twitter to begin with, you can at least not have to be responsible for the source.
Quoting 286. Naga5000:



Yes, it indeed has, if the entirety of the Earth was the contiguous United States.

Maybe its time to update my map...
Oh,and all of our com padres are sweltering in the heat,yes we can't forget them! Really? Comedy hour at its finest.
Quoting 285. BahaHurican:

Dagnabit! Our forecast now calls for rain every day until next Tuesday!!!

[bangs forehead on desk]


Ouch! Well, just be glad it isn't cold and windy.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I am doing my best to get to 6,000 posts ...LOL
Good luck on the cardiac procedure, PBW. Even though I understand it medically, it wold scare the crap out of me to go through it, so I have some idea how you feeling. Don't worry about the occasional bit of crankiness. You've been around a long time and have generally been unfailingly kind and pleasant. Everyone's entitled to be a little bitchy now and again. I'll send you some of that ice cream you like. :-)
Quoting VR46L:
Image from Capital Gang Twitter feed



For the images police

***********Disclaimer****************

I don't know if it was taken today , last year , 10 years ago its a cool image .....

AMAZING!!!!
Quoting 281. overwash12:

Apparently the Earth has taken care of the AGW issue!LOL


How surprised would you be if November 2014 were to turn out to be one of the hottest Novembers on record globally? How surprised would you be if 2014 or 2015 were to turn out to be the record hottest calendar year globally?
Retreating cold Building Rains

Quoting 278. PalmBeachWeather:

Thank you all..........I made it, sorry for being a total bitch sometimes....


Good luck and you're in my thoughts and prayers. :)


NEW!NASA CO2 dispersion map


Published on Nov 17, 2014
An ultra-high-resolution NASA computer model has given scientists a stunning new look at how carbon dioxide in the atmosphere travels around the globe.

Plumes of carbon dioxide in the simulation swirl and shift as winds disperse the greenhouse gas away from its sources. The simulation also illustrates differences in carbon dioxide levels in the northern and southern hemispheres and distinct swings in global carbon dioxide concentrations as the growth cycle of plants and trees changes with the seasons.

The carbon dioxide visualization was produced by a computer model called GEOS-5, created by scientists at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office.

The visualization is a product of a simulation called a “Nature Run.” The Nature Run ingests real data on atmospheric conditions and the emission of greenhouse gases and both natural and man-made particulates. The model is then left to run on its own and simulate the natural behavior of the Earth’s atmosphere. This Nature Run simulates January 2006 through December 2006.

While Goddard scientists worked with a “beta” version of the Nature Run internally for several years, they released this updated, improved version to the scientific community for the first time in the fall of 2014.

This video is public domain and can be downloaded at: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?11719

Like our videos? Subscribe to NASA's Goddard Shorts HD



Insanity... whats the total snowpack going to be? 8-10 feet??
Blasdell NY

Tonight
Snow likely with areas of blowing snow before 11pm, then snow with areas of blowing snow after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. Breezy, with a south wind 18 to 24 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 5 to 8 inches possible.

Thursday
Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

Thursday Night
Snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow before midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
The National Weather Service Office out of Houston/Galveston has begun to mention the possibility of tornadoes in their forecast area on Saturday.



ON FRIDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CROSS TEXAS SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE A
NEGATIVE TILT TO IT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. PWATS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.70" WHICH IS AROUND 2SD
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ARE FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN 800 AND 1500 J/ KG K. GREATEST
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH BUT SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA. SFC TO 1KM SHEAR IS
FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 20 KTS WITH SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45
KTS. UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO PROVIDE DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE ESPECIALLY TRICKY PART WILL BE WHERE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP. THE GFS PLACES THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TOWARDS THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA WHILE THE EURO HAS THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE OVERALL PATTERN
SUPPORTS HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONGER MORE
DISCRETE CELLS TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS
. SECONDARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Thanks Joe... I do need the support.
Hope you get better dude, God is the ultimate healer. I will be praying for you and hop everything goes fine. And dude don't be putting yourself down, you are doing excellent at your job, and you actually been helping me on what I need to do for my Meterology road to success. And I wanf to thank you for that. :)
Quoting 213. Xyrus2000:



Someone should also let him know that including as well as the urban heat island, there is also an urban cold island. The same properties of cities that lead to localized increased temperatures during the day also contribute to cooler temperatures at night (asphalt/cement/etc. are good radiators but poor heat sinks). Overall, there is almost no impact.

Regardless, the bulk of the warming is happening across the mid to high latitudes which has very few cities. It's hard to have an Urban Heat Island in the middle of the arctic tundra.


Actually, the urban heat island is actually most amplified at night, not during the day. Urban areas retain more at night, not lose more heat, they definitely aren't urban cold islands at night.

Link
But the whole urban heat island argument against AGW is indeed silly though. Because the land occupied by urban areas is still extremely small, and the total mass of air also impacted is small and local compared to the whole atmosphere.

Also, remote sensing can easily account for the differences between how urban observations are changing compared to rural ones. It's amazing people actually think they've just discovered something like the urban heat island, as if scientists haven't already been well aware of it. Too many people are legends in their own minds, and its a shame.

Furthermore, if the urban heat island was a large portion of the warming, its still just as much human climate change. But let me guess, some will find a way to call it natural warming too, lol.
Quoting 302. Andrebrooks:

Hope you get better dude, God is the ultimate healer. I will be praying for you and hop everything goes fine. And dude don't be putting yourself down, you are doing excellent at your job, and you actually been helping me on what I need to do for my Meterology road to success. And I wanf to thank you for that. :)



She is a lady blogger.
Quoting 301. 1900hurricane:

The National Weather Service Office out of Houston/Galveston has begun to mention the possibility of tornadoes in their forecast area on Saturday.



ON FRIDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CROSS TEXAS SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE A
NEGATIVE TILT TO IT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. PWATS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.70" WHICH IS AROUND 2SD
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CAPE VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ARE FORECASTED TO BE BETWEEN 800 AND 1500 J/ KG K. GREATEST
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS THE SOUTH BUT SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA. SFC TO 1KM SHEAR IS
FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 20 KTS WITH SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 45
KTS. UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO PROVIDE DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. THE ESPECIALLY TRICKY PART WILL BE WHERE THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP. THE GFS PLACES THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TOWARDS THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA WHILE THE EURO HAS THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THROUGH OUR AREA. THE OVERALL PATTERN
SUPPORTS HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH THE STRONGER MORE
DISCRETE CELLS TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS
. SECONDARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.


Keep a close eye on it.
Quoting 295. DCSwithunderscores:



How surprised would you be if November 2014 were to turn out to be one of the hottest Novembers on record globally? How surprised would you be if 2014 or 2015 were to turn out to be the record hottest calendar year globally?
How surprised? How about somebody is grabbing at straws and skewing the records?
Quoting Patrap:


Ok.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Ouch! Well, just be glad it isn't cold and windy.
I was out this afternoon when, according to my PWS, it was 56. With the wind, it felt every bit as cold as it did yesterday at 42. Our low last night was 18, and it dropped to 16 in Montgomery, both new records. My predicted low is 32. It's already 38. Somehow, I think 32 is going to be a bust. I really need to get some work done of the car tomorrow, and I hope I can do so without freezing my butt off again.
Quoting 288. DonnieBwkGA:

Not as cold as I expected. 30/52 with a freeze duration of 8 hours. Dewpoint fell to 9 during the afternoon.


We beat you guys by 8 degrees with 22 for a low!
palmbeachweather is a Lady blogger,...the meme is bad.
What a difference a couple of miles make in Lake Effect snow bands.

ERIE COUNTY...
4 S CHEEKTOWAGA 65.0 1004 AM 11/19 ESTIMATED
3 N CHEEKTOWAGA 2.0 1005 AM 11/19 SOCIAL MEDIA

Link
Quoting overwash12:
How surprised? How about somebody is gabbing at straws and skewing the records?
OK, let's forget the whole AGW issue and who or what's to blame. Over the last 30 years, a combination of ground instruments and satellite measurements have shown the globe is gradually warming. These are completely objective, and they don't get manipulated by anyone. Sometimes the overall rise is faster, other times it's slow, but the trend line is up. Do you agree with statement or not? If not, why not?
Link Here is a view from atop,look at all that ice and snow cover on the move!
Quoting 312. sar2401:

OK, let's forget the whole AGW issue and who or what's to blame. Over the last 30 years, a combination of ground instruments and satellite measurements have shown the globe is gradually warming. These are completely objective, and they don't get manipulated by anyone. Sometimes the overall rise is faster, other times it's slow, but the trend line is up. Do you agree with statement or not? If not, why not?
i do not believe it because I have not observed it. It is as simple as that. We still have record low temps in a warming world. Explain that one.
Quoting 314. overwash12:

i do not believe it because I have not observed it. It is as simple as that.


"Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt"
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
What a difference a couple of miles make in Lake Effect snow bands.

ERIE COUNTY...
4 S CHEEKTOWAGA 65.0 1004 AM 11/19 ESTIMATED
3 N CHEEKTOWAGA 2.0 1005 AM 11/19 SOCIAL MEDIA

Link
Happened all the time in Cleveland, with some places on the east side getting two feet and literally none on the west side. There's a village called Chardon on the east side and, if you were heading over there (that's where my Grandma lived), we had to ask how much snow was there was on the streets leading to west side of the square compared to the east side. Sometimes the difference would be three feet. They average almost nine of snow a season and a four to five foot snowfall wasn't considered something to get too excited about. They did have one 78 inch snowfall in the 70's where the National Guard engineering battalion got called out because roofs were beginning to collapse all over the place. If you look up some pictures on the web, you'll see it's a beautiful place...in the summer. :-) Here's a typical winter picture from when I was young.

Quoting 315. Naga5000:



"Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt"
Agreed,practice what you preach!Amen!
I don't believe in the planet Neptune because I haven't observed it.
I don't believe in volcanic eruptions because I haven't observed one.
I don't believe in the Aurora Borealis because I haven't observed it.

(Just thought I'd expand on the infallible line of reasoning laid out in #314.)
Quoting 308. sar2401:

I was out this afternoon when, according to my PWS, it was 56. With the wind, it felt every bit as cold as it did yesterday at 42. Our low last night was 18, and it dropped to 16 in Montgomery, both new records. My predicted low is 32. It's already 38. Somehow, I think 32 is going to be a bust. I really need to get some work done of the car tomorrow, and I hope I can do so without freezing my butt off again.


56 huh? This weekend it probably won't hit 55 but it's supposed to rain. It's 32.9 with a wind chill of 27 and a low of 23.
Quoting overwash12:
i do not believe it because I have not observed it. It is as simple as that. We still have record low temps in a warming world. Explain that one.
That's easy. The increasing temperatures aren't linear. No one ever predicted that the temperatures would follow an arithmetic path straight upwards. There will be times it goes fast, times it goes slow, and times it will even level off. It not like a pot of water on the stove with a constant flame beneath it.

As far as you not believing something that's objectively true because you've never observed it, I've never been to Manchuria. I've seen pictures of it, seen it on maps, read about it, seen airlines schedule of flights there, talked to people who are from there, and even those that have been there. Would it be rational for me to believe that, simply because I've never set foot in Manchuria, it just doesn't exist?
Quoting 318. TimSoCal:

I don't believe in the planet Neptune because I haven't observed it.
I don't believe in volcanic eruptions because I haven't observed one.
I don't believe in the Aurora Borealis because I haven't observed it.

(Just thought I'd expand on the infallible line of reasoning laid out in #314.)


You know, I have never personally seen an electron. This whole idea of matter leaves a lot to be desired.
Quoting 321. Naga5000:



You know, I have never personally seen an electron. This whole idea of matter leaves a lot to be desired.


There's this troll on youtube named durham francis who goes around saying tornadoes don't exist because he's never seen one. Some stuff you just can't make up. He's a total loon.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


56 huh? This weekend it probably won't hit 55 but it's supposed to rain. It's 32.9 with a wind chill of 27 and a low of 23.
Well, yeah, but I'm in Alabama, where the average high is 69. This is a cold you "smell" as soon as step outside, regardless of what the thermometer said. It's now down to 37, so I'm catching up. No rain though, and I take that, even if it was the wet, miserable variety.
Quoting Naga5000:


You know, I have never personally seen an electron. This whole idea of matter leaves a lot to be desired.
True, although I think electrons have something to do with why our posts show up here. :-)
Quoting 324. sar2401:

True, although I think electrons have something to do with why our posts show up here. :-)


Maybe for your posts, mine are divinely delivered on the wings of pegasi.
Quoting 320. sar2401:

That's easy. The increasing temperatures aren't linear. No one ever predicted that the temperatures would follow an arithmetic path straight upwards. There will be times it goes fast, times it goes slow, and times it will even level off. It not like a pot of water on the stove with a constant flame beneath it.

As far as you not believing something that's objectively true because you've never observed it, I've never been to Manchuria. I've seen pictures of it, seen it on maps, read about it, seen airlines schedule of flights there, talked to people who are from there, and even those that have been there. Would it be rational for me to believe that, simply because I've never set foot in Manchuria, it just doesn't exist?
Well I guess i'm just a fool. When I see the sea level rise and temps getting warmer then I'll be on board. What is sad is we have the Technology to get off of fossil fuels but our Gov't is cuddling up to big oil! So,until that changes,nothing will change.
Quoting 306. overwash12:

How surprised? How about somebody is grabbing at straws and skewing the records?


Which of these would you consider more to be "grabbing at straws":

choosing the weather over a relatively tiny section of the planet over one week to make a conclusion about global warming,

or

using global average temperatures over the last year, along with a trend over multiple decades, to make a conclusion about global warming?
still coming down
forecast calls for temps of 52 on Monday maybe 50 or close too it on sunday with rain moving in get ready for the big flip
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EST Wednesday 19 November 2014




Condition:Light Snow
Pressure:29.7 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:2 miles
Temperature:28.8°F
Dewpoint:26.8°F
Humidity:92%
Wind:S 10 gust 19 mph
Wind Chill: 20
Quoting 253. VR46L:

Image from Capital Gang Twitter feed



For the images police

***********Disclaimer****************

I don't know if it was taken today , last year , 10 years ago its a cool image .....
CWG is a very trustful source.
Quoting 325. Naga5000:


Maybe for your posts, mine are divinely delivered on the wings of pegasi.


They must have come down from "The Cloud".
Quoting 327. DCSwithunderscores:



Which of these would you consider more to be "grabbing at straws":

choosing the weather over a relatively tiny section of the planet over one week to make a conclusion about global warming,

or

using global average temperatures over the last year, along with a trend over multiple decades, to make a conclusion about global warming? Tiny? North America= 16.5% of Earths land mass! Yes,that does include Canada. I don't want to hear about Asia being below normal on their temps this winter!LOL
Quoting 326. overwash12:

Well I guess i'm just a fool. When I see the sea level rise and temps getting warmer then I'll be on board. What is sad is we have the Technology to get off of fossil fuels but our Gov't is cuddling up to big oil! So,until that changes,nothing will change.
That's easily solved. Come on down to South Florida and I can bring you to two spots "on the margin" where the sea has risen enough to breach the barrier islands of Miami and Ft. Lauderdale beach. Both within 25 miles of the airport, you can be in and out in one day. Maybe we can even get Neo to pay for it out of ice cream royalties.
Quoting 334. overwash12:




North America is less than 5% of Earth's surface.

Which of these would you consider more to be "grabbing at straws":

choosing the weather over less than one-twentieth of the planet over one week to make a conclusion about global warming,

or

using global average temperatures over the last year, along with a trend over multiple decades, to make a conclusion about global warming?
338. Inyo
Quoting 314. overwash12:

i do not believe it because I have not observed it. It is as simple as that. We still have record low temps in a warming world. Explain that one.

I know this is kind of too stupid to justify a response but..

Imagine you have a big pendulum rocking gently from left to right. You kick it hard to the left every third time it swings by. so it goes left a bit more than right. But guess what? It goes right farther than it used to also. You put more energy into a system, the extremes become more... well... extreme.
342. yoboi
If you look at the science....we are going with normal cycles......AGW.....NAH........Some will say more water VAPOR ....NAH......if so California would not be in a drought.....Science.....It will guide you to the answers.....
Quoting 314 Overwash12: i do not believe it because I have not observed it. It is as simple as that. We still have record low temps in a warming world. Explain that one.

Response: Since you asked, for a lot of people it can be very easy to unwittingly preferably use information that suits their view while rejecting other information that does not, such as using record low temperatures without using record high temperatures. New record all-time high temperatures globally greatly outnumber new record all-time low temperatures globally.
#342 What normal cycles would those be? Names and return periods please. TIA.

That post has really screwed up the blog. Admin needs to delete it now. I tried to put him on ignore, can't even do that.
Quoting 342 Yoboi: If you look at the science....we are going with normal cycles......AGW.....NAH........Some will say more water VAPOR ....NAH......if so California would not be in a drought.....Science.....It will guide you to the answers.....

How sure are you about your claim that California would not be in drought if there were more water vapor in the atmosphere? Wouldn't more water vapor in the atmosphere mean less somewhere else?
washi...when you scroll through his post..does your name keep showing up with post numbers?
ignoring overwash12 did work for me.
how did u do it Donnie? I can't even get into my acct.
Figured it out. Just had to click on my own name!
Geoffrey I went to the blog list, clicked on "view your blog" and updated my ignore list from there. I did it in classic, don't know if that makes a difference.
353. yoboi
# 344 for some reason this blog is out of sink......I need to reboot are something it's all messed up....
can some one tell me if they still are having problems with the corrupt comment
I can't read code..but keepers name is prominent. It's like he hacked into his activity.
I can access my acct. now. Seems all is well.
358. yoboi
Keeper for some reason this blog is all messed up.....I can't scroll or anything.....

Quoting #315  Naga5000:


"Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt"
Thank you. +1 :)
359...Didn't say it was keep.
Quoting 361. GeoffreyWPB:

359...Didn't say it was keep.


Oh. It sounded like you said it was him. My bad .
Quoting 352. DonnieBwkGA:

Geoffrey I went to the blog list, clicked on "view your blog" and updated my ignore list from there. I did it in classic, don't know if that makes a difference.


It worked for me. Thanks! Has that kind of thing ever happened before where there's one comment that goes on forever?
Keep is the pc tech guru here and can tell us what happened.
From weather.com:

Here are some reported snowfall totals from the Lake Erie snowband:

- Cheektowaga, New York: 65 inches as of 10 a.m. Wednesday
- Lancaster, New York: 63 inches as of 9:44 a.m. Wednesday
- Gardenville, New York: 60 inches as of 8 p.m. Tuesday
- Elma, New York: 51 inches as of 8 p.m. Tuesday
- Alden, New York: 48 inches as of 12:52 p.m. Tuesday
- West Seneca, New York: 57 inches as of 8 p.m. Tuesday
- Depew, New York: 42 inches as of noon Tuesday
- Orchard Park, New York: 48 inches as of 8 p.m. Tuesday
- Buffalo Int'l Airport: 6.2 inches as of 6:50 a.m Wednesday

Two factors combined to yield the extreme snowfall totals in localized areas.

First, wind directions remained fairly constant Monday-early Wednesday. That meant lake-effect snow bands tended to hammer the same areas for a protracted period of time.

Second, the large temperature difference between the lake water and the air above create an unstable atmosphere, which allows air to rise more quickly and therefore to generate snow more efficiently. Snowfall rates were estimated at 4 inches per hour in the snowbands east of Lake Erie Tuesday.
Quoting 368. yoboi:




Look back on Dr Rood blog....



Date and post # please. Thank you.
Quoting #315 Naga5000:


"Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt"

If All of the posters to this blog adhered to this there would not be many posts.

366. yoboi
2:48 AM GMT on November 20, 2014






0

+









Quoting 321. Naga5000:



You know, I have never personally seen an electron. This whole idea of matter leaves a lot to be desired.




Ok rebooted.....Your prediction of The Arctic being ice free by 2015; I just don't see it.....Is there something that you see that I am overlooking?????????



2015 has yet to arrive and complete the summer cycle thats pending see ya about that time around the 2nd week of sept 2015 when it reaches its greatest melt out state
Quoting 372. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


366. yoboi
2:48 AM GMT on November 20, 2014






0

+









Quoting 321. Naga5000:



You know, I have never personally seen an electron. This whole idea of matter leaves a lot to be desired.




Ok rebooted.....Your prediction of The Arctic being ice free by 2015; I just don't see it.....Is there something that you see that I am overlooking?????????



2015 has yet to arrive and complete the summer cycle thats pending see ya about that time around the 2nd week of sept 2015 when it reaches its greatest melt out state


Plus, I never said that.
Friday, November 21, 2014

A chance of a severe thunderstorm during the day in the east half of Texas. TOR:CON - 3 in a corridor from near Waco to San Antonio.

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain overnight in west and south-central Texas in a corridor from near San Antonio to Del Rio to San Angelo to Abilene. TOR:CON - 3 to 4 in the San Antonio-Junction area.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Severe thunderstorms in central and east Texas and southwest Louisiana. TOR:CON - 4 in south-central, southeast, and east-central Texas, plus southwest Louisiana; 3 in central Texas.

Saturday Night, November 22-23, 2014

A squall line will likely develop and march east and northeast into air that is not as unstable, but damaging gusts and a few tornadoes in east Texas, Louisiana, extreme southeast Oklahoma, south Arkansas, west and south Mississippi, western Florida panhandle and possibly west Tennessee and southeast Missouri.TOR:CON - 3 south LA, southeast MS, south AL, west FL panhandle; 2 to 3 rest of area mentioned. Heavy rain in these areas.

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Storms may continue eastward, but into less unstable air and with less upper-air forcing, so the amount of severe weather is uncertain. At least isolated severe thunderstorms seem likely in the Florida panhandle, south Georgia, south Alabama, and possibly eastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina, southeast Virginia and northeast Florida. TOR:CON - 3 Florida panhandle, south Alabama, south Georgia.

There is a chance of a severe thunderstorm near the upper forcing in north Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, and west Tennessee in the morning and afternoon.

Monday, November 24, 2014

The upper-air trough begins moving into the Southeast and may trigger isolated severe thunderstorms in south Alabama, the Florida panhandle, northeast Florida, and south Georgia. TOR:CON - 2 to 3
Quoting 371. fetoau:

Quoting #315 Naga5000:


"Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt"

If All of the posters to this blog adhered to this there would not be many posts.


.
Quoting 371. fetoau:

Quoting #315 Naga5000:


"Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt"

If All of the posters to this blog adhered to this there would not be many posts.


Amen.
Fair

29°F

-2°C

Humidity75%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.36 in (1028.1 mb)
Dewpoint22°F (-6°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 19 Nov 9:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


Geeze, looks like another hard freeze for sure tonight, already back in the 20's here again.
It's astonishing to see the lake feeding the storm moisture and energy illustrated so well by the storm itself.
Then I see a guy from Buffalo talking about the weather up there say; "You just roll with it as it comes."
You people up in Buffalo are amazing!
Quoting 378. Decembre:

It's astonishing to see the lake feeding the storm moisture and energy illustrated so well by the storm itself.
Then I see a guy from Buffalo talking about the weather up there say; "You just roll with it as it comes."
You people up in Buffalo are amazing!


More coming.
Quoting 318. TimSoCal:

I don't believe in the planet Neptune because I haven't observed it.
I don't believe in volcanic eruptions because I haven't observed one.
I don't believe in the Aurora Borealis because I haven't observed it.

(Just thought I'd expand on the infallible line of reasoning laid out in #314.)


I haven't observed germs, I don't believe in germs, so I won't wash my hands.

I haven't seen molecules, so I don't believe in molecules.

and many more!
Quoting 381. Jedkins01:



I haven't observed germs, I don't believe in germs, so I won't wash my hands.

I haven't seen molecules, so I don't believe in molecules.

and many more!




I see...weather people.
Here we go again. Lake-induced CAPE, resultant from 850mb temperatures AOB -10C against ocean temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s, is leading to a narrow but significant band of snowfall in and just south of Buffalo, New York--across the same areas that have already seen 5-6ft of snow. By Friday morning, NWS Buffalo expects an additional 2-3ft of snow in locales close to Lake Erie, so it wouldn't surprise me if we see a handful of snowfall reports near or above 100".

Roof or perhaps total home collapse should quickly become an issue for many more people over the next few days as additional snow falls and then begins to melt this weekend as temperatures moderate and rain moves in.

Quoting 383. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here we go again. Lake-induced CAPE, resultant from 850mb temperatures AOB -10C against ocean temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s, is leading to a narrow but significant band of snowfall in and just south of Buffalo, New York--across the same areas that have already seen 5-6ft of snow. By Friday morning, NWS Buffalo expects an additional 2-3ft of snow in locales close to Lake Erie, so it wouldn't surprise me if we see a handful of snowfall reports near or above 100".

Roof or perhaps total home collapse should quickly become an issue for many more people over the next few days as additional snow falls and then begins to melt this weekend as temperatures moderate and rain moves in.





Not good with a sudden warm up.

Have some good lake-effect bands coming across Metro Detroit right now. A winter weather advisory was even issued for these bands, which caught me off guard a little. It's a nice surprise after getting 1-2" from a clipper today. Two inches were measured in 30 minutes in this band in Howell, which is pretty good for this area. Of course it's nothing like Buffalo, but it's got me excited.
Quoting 384. Grothar:




Not good with a sudden warm up.


Strong WAA ahead of the next system over the Great Lakes with PVA over Western NY and PA, definitely not good as the snow will melt fast.





Down the road, strong PVA with a negatively tilted trough over the East Coast. We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of severe weather in the Southeast and another Nor'Easter especially for folks travelling to family and friends house for Thanksgiving.


Thunderstorm Heavy Snow Blowing Snow
31°F
-1°C
Humidity96%
Wind SpeedSW 16 G 25 mph
Barometer29.72 in (1007.4 mb)
Dewpoint30°F (-1°C)
Visibility0.13 mi
Wind Chill20°F (-7°C)
Last Update on 19 Nov 10:54 pm EST

Current conditions at
Greater Buffalo International Airport (KBUF)
Lat: 42.94°N Lon: 78.73°W Elev: 712ft.
More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Cheektowaga NY
Quoting 382. Grothar:




I see...weather people.
yes they are everywhere
Quoting 387. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Thunderstorm Heavy Snow Blowing Snow
31°F
-1°C
Humidity96%
Wind SpeedSW 16 G 25 mph
Barometer29.72 in (1007.4 mb)
Dewpoint30°F (-1°C)
Visibility0.13 mi
Wind Chill20°F (-7°C)
Last Update on 19 Nov 10:54 pm EST

Current conditions at
Greater Buffalo International Airport (KBUF)
Lat: 42.94°N Lon: 78.73°W Elev: 712ft.
More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Cheektowaga NY
wicked wild weather the little snow we had is now whipping around in the wind as the little system passes us by and the squall drifts back south
Quoting 382. Grothar:




I see...weather people.


Is that your 6th sense?
I realize most of the discussion here is on the recent Lake Effect Snows, and understandably so. However, if anyone wishes to discuss the upcoming threat of severe weather for this weekend, I put together a short blog entry on the subject today. Feel free to check it out!
Quoting 387. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Thunderstorm Heavy Snow Blowing Snow
31°F
-1°C
Humidity96%
Wind SpeedSW 16 G 25 mph
Barometer29.72 in (1007.4 mb)
Dewpoint30°F (-1°C)
Visibility0.13 mi
Wind Chill20°F (-7°C)
Last Update on 19 Nov 10:54 pm EST

Current conditions at
Greater Buffalo International Airport (KBUF)
Lat: 42.94°N Lon: 78.73°W Elev: 712ft.
More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Cheektowaga NY



Gotta love reports like that, lake effect snow is the best way to get convective thunderstorms with snow because the lake air temperature difference means a huge low level lapse rate and thus favorable for updrafts despite the normally hostile environment for convection in subfreezing surface air, and since freezing levels are so low, it doesn't take much moisture or much height to produce convective cells, and even lightning of the updrafts are strong enough.
Quoting 385. wxchaser97:

Have some good lake-effect bands coming across Metro Detroit right now. A winter weather advisory was even issued for these bands, which caught me off guard a little. It's a nice surprise after getting 1-2" from a clipper today. Two inches were measured in 30 minutes in this band in Howell, which is pretty good for this area. Of course it's nothing like Buffalo, but it's got me excited.

Can verify rates are 1-2 inches per hour in this band. It is pretty intense as it is coming through. Gives me only a taste of what Buffalo has, and is, going through.
Saturated on up to about 650 mb. with a veering wind profile and then dry up to the tropopause.

Quoting 383. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here we go again. Lake-induced CAPE, resultant from 850mb temperatures AOB -10C against ocean temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s, is leading to a narrow but significant band of snowfall in and just south of Buffalo, New York--across the same areas that have already seen 5-6ft of snow. By Friday morning, NWS Buffalo expects an additional 2-3ft of snow in locales close to Lake Erie, so it wouldn't surprise me if we see a handful of snowfall reports near or above 100".

Roof or perhaps total home collapse should quickly become an issue for many more people over the next few days as additional snow falls and then begins to melt this weekend as temperatures moderate and rain moves in.

used to live in Buffalo, and remember those kind of day's was there in '77 and will never forget that storm!!
Quoting 385. wxchaser97:
Have some good lake-effect bands coming across Metro Detroit right now. A winter weather advisory was even issued for these bands, which caught me off guard a little. It's a nice surprise after getting 1-2" from a clipper today. Two inches were measured in 30 minutes in this band in Howell, which is pretty good for this area. Of course it's nothing like Buffalo, but it's got me excited.

Isaac are you above last year's seasonal snow total to date?
Hope none of you Florida Staters were in the library. Stay Safe.
Quoting 395. BaltimoreBrian:

A short article selection:

!!! Murder in the Mist

!!! Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

"India's power minister, Piyush Goyal, has promised to double India's use of domestic coal from 565 million tons last year to more than a billion tons by 2019, and he is trying to sell coal-mining licenses as swiftly as possible after years of delay."

!!! Observation of two new baryon particles


Hey.. long time no see Brian... Glad to see India is on the whole global warming bandwagon, eh?

Quoting 398. VAbeachhurricanes:

Hope none of you Florida Staters were in the library. Stay Safe.
?
Excerpts from "The Physical Geography of the Sea" by Matthew Fontaine Maury (1855)

The atmosphere "warms and cools by turns the earth and the living creatures that inhabit it. It draws up vapours from the sea and land, retains them dissolved in itself, or suspended in cisterns of clouds, and throws them down again as rain or dew when they are required... It affords the gas which vivifies and warms our frames, and receives into itself that which has been polluted by use, and is thrown off as noxious...

"It is only the girdling encircling air, that flows above and around all, that makes the whole world kin. The carbonic acid [carbon dioxide] with which to-day our breathing fills the air, to-morrow seeks its way round the world. The date-trees that grow round the falls of the Nile will drink it in by their leaves and the palms and bananas of Japan will change it into flowers. The oxygen we are breathing was distilled for us... by the magnolias of the Susquehanna, and the great trees that skirt the Orinoco and the Amazon... The rain we see descending was thawed for us out of the icebergs which have watched the polar star for ages, and the lotus lilies have soaked up from the Nile, and exhaled as vapour, snows that rested on the summits of the Alps.

"Hence, to the right-minded mariner, and to him who studies the physical relations of earth, sea, and air, the atmosphere is something more than a shoreless ocean, at the bottom of which he creeps along. It is an inexhaustible magazine, marvellously adapted for many benign and beneficent purposes.

"Upon the proper working of this machine depends the well being of every plant and animal that inhabits the earth; therefore the management of it, its movements, and the performance of its offices, cannot be left to chance."
Quoting 398. VAbeachhurricanes:

Hope none of you Florida Staters were in the library. Stay Safe.


Yeah, I got an alert on my phone about it and could here all the sirens, as of now, the news is that two have been shot in Strozier Library (one of the two main libraries), and the gunman has been subdued.

Seriously America, what is wrong with us?
It's good to see you Dakster. Things are a little slow this morning so I'm looking in here a bit.
Hope the three people shot at the FSU library are alive and recover quickly.
The Boston Globe's Big Picture blog has a series of photos from Buffalo.


Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, I got an alert on my phone about it and could here all the sirens, as of now, the news is that two have been shot in Strozier Library (one of the two main libraries), and the gunman has been subdued.

Seriously America, what is wrong with us?
Just from the fragmentary reports I've seen, it sounds like a lover's triangle gone bad. I'm not clear if the shooter shot himself, or if he was shot by officers. No word on the condition of the other two wounded. Hopefully they'll survive.

As to what's wring with America, I don't think there's really all that much different or worse now. As an illustration, I was like two weeks out of the academy in 1978, riding with my field training officer. We got a call of shots fired at a church. We happened to be about two blocks away and were on scene in less than a minute. We were about to get out of the car and investigate when out comes the shooter, with a shotgun in one hand and a Colt 1911 pistol in the other. My sergeant was on the driver's side with this shotgun and I was behind the passenger side door with my .357. We yelled at him to drop the weapons and it looked for a second like he was going to comply. Instead, he raised the shotgun and pointed it directly at us. My sergeant fired twice with his shotgun and me three times with my .357. The suspect dropped, along with his weapons. He was clearly DOA. Now I wasn't shaking a bit, and I had a nice steady shot. My sergeant hit him fatally with the shogun pellets, according to the coroner's report. There was no sign of a .357 round in the body. For all I know, they ended up in the next county. The shooter had killed his wife and two other women and wounded at least a dozen, some pretty seriously. He was a jilted husband who went to a church conference looking for his wife - and he found her. It was, incidentally, the only officer involved shooting of my 27 years on the job, thank goodness.

The point of this is not my war story. When I called my relatives in Ohio and New York to let them know I was OK, none of them had even heard of the incident. No internet then. I sent them newspaper clippings from the local paper a few days later with a picture of me at the scene looking like a quivering bowl of jello with a badge . :-) They still hadn't seen an article about the incident in their local papers. Every single bit of news now travels at the speed of light, and I imagine my incident would have made the top of the news for days. I'm not convinced that we really are so much different than 1978, but I am convinced we get enough news of every singe incident to make us believe (and be scared enough) for us to think we are different.
Observation for Buffalo:

BUFFALO TSTM 28 25 88 W12G20 29.75S VSB 1/4 WCI 18

That's "TSTM" for thunder snow storm I think. Radar has a band of snow right over Buffalo.

Lake effect in full swing ...

Quoting sar2401:

As to what's wring with America, I don't think there's really all that much different or worse now.
You make an excellent point. I recall that 1978 or so was the year I had a friend chastise me for paying too much attention to the evening news on NPR. He declared it was "All Things Over-considered".

He may have had a point. Or he may have found the news wasn't conducive to his job as a wine salesman and eventual AA habitue. :)
ChemtraILs... etc...
Quoting Jedkins01:


Seriously America, what is wrong with us?
Oh, where to begin? There's the utter inability of some to properly handle life's many stressors. Disregard for human life. Ignorance of irreversible consequences. Lack of empathy. And so on. And I'm sure that in the days to follow we'll hear other ideas, as well: it was video games, it was violent movies, it was divorced parents, it was whatever. But when you get right down to the heart of the matter, isn't there really only one thing every school--or workplace, or home, or movie theater, or mall, or church, or post office--shooting has in common?
If you read all the way down through the NWS Buffalo forecast discussion, all the way at the bottom of the Long Range portion, after where they talk about flooding potential Mon and Tuesday, they note that as another surge of cold air comes in for Wed into Thanksgiving, more lake effect snow can be expected....

Buffalo better hope to hell the lake freezes really damn early this year as the eastern half of Lake Erie is warmer than normal and with these intense arctic fronts, the temp differential gets so high (something like 50 degrees in the last event), that epic snowfalls are going to be more the norm, rather than the exception.
Jet stream weirdness? It's called "There is no global warming".
Wow - tough night tonight - anyway good morning

From the Key West NWS (South Florida is still afloat though barely) !!

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 20TH...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1959...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 7.71 INCHES WAS RECORDED. THIS
IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY RAINFALL RECORD RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
who ever is in charge must be doing something right fuel was 2.90 gallon. makes a big difference in our life.
jsut too many guns out there neo. been saying that for yrs
Today's Lake Effect band is currently setup a little further south than the previous band.

As of right now, the band is quite a bit SW of Buffalo. The hotel where the Dominator 2 has been parked that received blizzard conditions with the previous band isn't seeing any snow right now. On their live cam you can see the clouds associated with the band to the south, but no snow at their location.

But the band could lift back up closer to the Buffalo area. Something to watch for. But right now, the southside of Buffalo is just north of the band.

This is a strong band and there are areas that are getting a lot of snow that received a lot of snow from the previous storm. So there could be some huge amounts in these locations.

Quoting 418. islander101010:

who ever is in charge must be doing something right fuel was 2.90 gallon. makes a big difference in our life.


Saw $2.65 at a Valero station last night.
Wow... so much to comment on this morning, but for the sanity of Dr. Masters' blog, how about I'll just say:

Quoting 401. BaltimoreBrian:

Excerpts from "The Physical Geography of the Sea" by Matthew Fontaine Maury (1855)


Wow, they most certainly don't write like that anymore. Content aside, Mr. Maury writes with beautiful eloquence. Thanks for those excerpts, Brian.
I wonder if a second band might set up going down the center of the lake?
The main band seems to be drifting further to the south.
We could see a new band further north take over. That wouldn't be good.
Quoting 423. Sfloridacat5:

I wonder if a second band might set up going down the center of the lake?
The main band seems to be drifting further to the south.


As long as the band doesn't set up over Ralph Wilson stadium and affect the Bills/Jets game this Sunday... I'm starting the Bills DST in my fantasy league. ;)
Reports of roof collapses coming in. A BJ's wholesale roof caved in and a report of people living in their basement beacuse the rest of their house collapsed. Also situation where a ten foot drift falling off a roof blew a set of french doors clean out of the frame and filled a living room with snow.
Texas to FL better be prepared this weekend to deal with severe weather as it looks like we could see a moderate risk issued for SE TX Saturday possibly extending to Pensacola Saturday Night.

Quoting 417. trunkmonkey:


90% of shooters have!
ASPERGERS!
but 90% of those with ASPERGERS aren't shooters!
I've never heard this before! Do you have documentation? I'd like to read it.
So far this warm pool is stronger than 2009 and there is some indication that nino 3.4 could possibly reach 3C late next Spring or Summer.


Here is the ENSO run down this morning and now all ENSO regions are above 1.0C.






What a few days of cool weather did to my my electric bill this month:

Amount of your last bill $200.10
Payment received - Thank you -$200.10
New Charges due by Dec 9, 2014 $137.75
Statement balance as of Nov 18, 2014 $137.75
Quoting 430. capeflorida:

What a few days of cool weather did to my my electric bill this month:

Amount of your last bill $200.10
Payment received - Thank you -$200.10
New Charges due by Dec 9, 2014 $137.75
Statement balance as of Nov 18, 2014 $137.75



I just got my electric bill yesterday; I live in Tampa. $113, which was my lowest bill in 4+ years in this home. I'm loving this cool November we're having.

This is from CWG taken some time earlier this year.
Looks like Dunkirk, New York is really getting the focus of the Lake Effect snow this morning.



434. MahFL
Rain for northern CA:

Buffalo Bills offering cash plus tickets for snow shovelers:

Link
2.49 here in SC. The Saudi's must be in charge because by dropping the price of crude, they drove the worldwide market price down. Or supply and demand is in charge because worldwide demand is down. Regardless, one thing for certain, our political leaders inside the Beltway are not in charge. Right, left , dem, repub; it doesn't matter. There is no leadership. Just a lot of politics.

My personal view is that the dropping price, although a short term benefit for most people, is really a bad sign of things to come. Worldwide economic growth is slowing. Going to be tough to keep artificially propping up asset bubbles.

Hard freeze last night in the land of 2.49 Regular.


Quoting 418. islander101010:

who ever is in charge must be doing something right fuel was 2.90 gallon. makes a big difference in our life.
Looks like us in the panhandle will be getting the brunt of the rain the next week. For those in Central/South FL it seems you may miss it.



I wrote a blog last night on the various sea ice anomalies around the arctic and what it might mean for the coming winter.

Warming up quick here. 64.5ºF already.
The total for my snowfall is 3.4" as of one and a half hours ago. It's actually the biggest November snowfall that I can remember. Made for a picturesque scene. It is still snowing and the total for the lake-effect will likely go up. May be able to hit 4" depending on how the rest of the day goes.
Look it is going to FL JK JK
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
2.49 here in SC. The Saudi's must be in charge because by dropping the price of crude, they drove the worldwide market price down. Or supply and demand is in charge because worldwide demand is down. Regardless, one thing for certain, our political leaders inside the Beltway are not in charge. Right, left , dem, repub; it doesn't matter. There is no leadership. Just a lot of politics.

My personal view is that the dropping price, although a short term benefit for most people, is really a bad sign of things to come. Worldwide economic growth is slowing. Going to be tough to keep artificially propping up asset bubbles.

Hard freeze last night in the land of 2.49 Regular.




Where in the Palmetto State if I may ask...Chucktown area?
Florence. Myrtle Beach is even cheaper (not the tourist area ).

Quoting 441. wxgeek723:



Where in the Palmetto State if I may ask...Chucktown area?
I've been watching the Dominator 2 feed as the hotel parking lot gets cleared of snow. No snow falling at their location today, but they picked up around 5' of snow from the previous storm.

The loader/heavy equipment got stuck earlier and had to have another loader pull him out. I was surprised how easily that huge piece of equipment got stuck.
Quoting 417. trunkmonkey:


90% of shooters have!
ASPERGERS!
but 90% of those with ASPERGERS aren't shooters!

100% of shooters use guns!
Quoting 425. tlawson48:

Reports of roof collapses coming in. A BJ's wholesale roof caved in and a report of people living in their basement beacuse the rest of their house collapsed. Also situation where a ten foot drift falling off a roof blew a set of french doors clean out of the frame and filled a living room with snow.

I hope those people leave their basement for alternate housing before the upcoming Big Melt.
Back to warm weather for S.W. Florida.

7 day for Fort Myers, Fl.
I'm surprised this lake-effect scenario didn't get a winter storm name by the folks at TWC. With those historic snow totals, you would think that would happen
448. jpsb
Quoting 395. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



!!! Murder in the Mist

!!! Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

"India's power minister, Piyush Goyal, has promised to double India's use of domestic coal from 565 million tons last year to more than a billion tons by 2019, and he is trying to sell coal-mining licenses as swiftly as possible after years of delay."

!!! Observation of two new baryon particles

Fall of ancient civilization offers climate warning


* Spooky alignment of quasars across billions of light-years



*** 'Green Revolution' changes breathing of the biosphere: Stronger seasonal oscillations in carbon dioxide linked to intensive agriculture

Prehistoric landslide discovery rivals largest known on surface of Earth

*** A new test measures analytical thinking linked to depression, fueling the idea that depression may be a form of adaptation

* Wild weather in the Arctic causes problems for people and wildlife

!!! Climate change was not to blame for the collapse of the Bronze Age


* Ice to close upper Mississippi from November 20, earliest on record

*** How Russia could derail US natural gas exports


World Isn't Even Close to Stopping Global Warming: U.N.

Explosive Finding: Smaller Volcano Blasts Might Slow Global Warming

Cleaning up the fracking mess

*** Blankenship and black lung: Why we can't call coal clean



Interesting how the article Fall of ancient civilization offers climate warning is directly contradicted by the article Climate change was not to blame for the collapse of the Bronze Age

After all what I read and see on German weatherblogs this is now a real catastrophy in certain regions. Poor people, but poor deer as well! Saw a video with one deer struggeling which really made me cry.
Quoting 447. lobdelse81:

I'm surprised this lake-effect scenario didn't get a winter storm name by the folks at TWC. With those historic snow totals, you would think that would happen


Winter storms don't get named by TWC unless they affect a large population; this one did not.

Dr. M.
Quoting 447. lobdelse81:

I'm surprised this lake-effect scenario didn't get a winter storm name by the folks at TWC. With those historic snow totals, you would think that would happen


It was not an organized cyclone. Lake effect snow is very localized and depends on the exact wind direction, temperature difference between lake and airmass for total snow volume, and steadiness of the wind direction for focusing. Most bands move around more than the 11/18 band did. Some flash flood patterns, esp in the warm season are even more innocuous, at least with lake effect there are good predictive signals for it.
Quoting 417. trunkmonkey:


90% of shooters have!
ASPERGERS!
but 90% of those with ASPERGERS aren't shooters!


I think your bottom number should be closer to 99.999%
Quoting 446. Sfloridacat5:

Back to warm weather for S.W. Florida.

7 day for Fort Myers, Fl.



And no rain for the next week. We do have some rain in our forecast in Tampa.
Video that Reed shot of thundersnow last night where he is stuck just south of Buffalo:
Link
Nature as a wrapping artist effortlessly beats the art of an Christo:


Source.
Without power this morning...we get some rain and trees fall and take out power poles. Kinda funny cause the massive oak tree in my yard was dropping branches yesterday and I ask it to please not fall...
Lake Effect Band is staying well south of Buffalo.

I checked the traffic cam on the highway at Dunkirk and the highway is snow covered with snow coming down heavily.

Quoting 448. jpsb:




Interesting how the article Fall of ancient civilization offers climate warning is directly contradicted by the article Climate change was not to blame for the collapse of the Bronze Age

You should read the articles. They are talking about two different groups of people in two different geographic locations.
So far this warm pool is stronger than 2009 and there is some indication that nino 3.4 could possibly reach 3C late next Spring or Summer.

Actually no.....the main model showing this is the cfsv2 as you showed...and ventrice came out yesterday and discounted this as it has a bias to the recent kelvin wave
Quoting 421. capeflorida:



Saw $2.65 at a Valero station last night.


$2.38 at COSTCO in NOLA
an article showing one of the diverse side effects of el nino....

plague linked to el nino
Green Climate Fund: Wealthy countries pledge cash in Berlin
BBC Report, 20 November 2014 Last updated at 13:52 GMT
Thirty nations meeting in Berlin have pledged $9.3bn (£6bn) for a fund to help developing countries cut emissions and prepare for climate change.
The Green Climate Fund was to have held at least $10bn by the end of 2014, so the pledge is just shy of the target.
The South Korea-based fund aims to help nations invest in clean energy and green technology.
Roger Harrabin reports.
In a warming climate, AGW becomes the signal, El nino becomes the noise within it.

Quoting 463. Patrap:

In a warming climate, AGW becomes the signal, El nino becomes the noise within it.




Did you think of that all by yourself?
Gee doug, didn't you know you can mouse over any text and see the source?


O snap, dat wood require actual "effort".

: P
I just wanted to mention a privacy issue...it's no big deal to me as if you want it...i'm happy to post my address and phone number...but i know others want to lead a more private life......

someone can take your avatar pic and google search it...so if your avatar pic as an example is the same one as your linkedin avatar...someone would be able to get your personal information from there such as name and workplace information and from there go further
JeffMasters has created a new entry.



UK pledges £720m to climate change fund for poor countries
Energy secretary Ed Davey warns against ‘little Englander’ approach as donation to UN’s Green Climate Fund announced



Britain will face a disaster if it adopts an “isolationist approach” to the environment, the energy secretary, Ed Davey, has warned as he announced the UK is to give £720m to an international fund to help poor countries cope with climate change.

In remarks aimed at rightwing Tories and Ukip supporters, as voters go to the polls in the Rochester and Strood byelection, Davey said a “little Englander approach” would be self defeating as climate change does not recognise borders.

Davey was speaking to the Guardian on the eve of an announcement that Britain is to donate more than France and Germany to the UN’s Green Climate Fund which has a target of $10bn (£8bn). The UK commitment to the fund, seen as a vital step towards rich and poor nations sealing a deal to tackle global warming in 2015, is surpassed only by the US and Japan.

The enthusiasm with which Davey has announced the UK contribution contrasts with reticence in Downing Street, where David Cameron is understood to be nervous about highlighting Britain’s contribution to tackling climate change as it faces the prospect of losing its second parliamentary seat to Ukip. The prime minister was at pains to point out at the recent G20 summit in Australia that the UK’s £720m contribution is not new money.

Davey said the prime minister should be more robust in challenging climate change sceptics on the Tory right, such as the former environment secretary Owen Paterson, and Ukip suporters.

The energy and climate change secretary told the Guardian: “A little Englander approach, an isolationist approach, is going to be a disaster for the people of Britain. Climate change does not recognise borders.” Experts warned recently that global warming would affect health, business and food production in the UK, with a senior military figure also warning that armed forces would be unable to provide global security if climate change goes unchecked. “There is a huge amount at stake,” said Davey. “Anyone who has followed the UN negotiations knows the poorest and most vulnerable countries on the planet are looking to developed countries to help them survive climate change. If we do not do this, I don’t think we will get a global deal. It is as simple as that.”

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He said: “[Critics] do not realise the vital work this money is for. This is about saving lives and we have duty to do this.” Examples, he said, were helping low-lying nations cope with rising sea levels and subsistence farmers cope with failing crops. The contribution to the GCF will come from an existing UK climate aid fund that will spend £3.9bn from 2011-16.

Asked why the UK was offering the equivalent of $1.13bn, more than the $1bn pledged each by Germany and France, Davey said the UK would only pay the extra if other countries came forward to contribute. “We are doing that to encourage others to give,” he said. So far, 14 other nations including Mexico and South Korea have contributed to the GCF, bringing the total with the UK contribution to about $9bn. Australia, led by climate sceptic Tony Abbott, has refused to give money to the ECF.

Davey said that the recent agreement of EU leaders to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 provided a chance to reject the politics of division. He said: “In the UK, we may be experiencing the politics of division – whether from the Scottish Nationalists or Ukip. And our TV screens may be full of conflicts from Syria to Ukraine. Yet, remarkably, climate politics is experiencing a quiet but steady recognition of our common goals and shared interests.
Climate change has been the cause of the end of many civilizations, as well as other causes. All ages end, like the Stone Age, the Bronze Age, etc. Even the Aluminum Age wrapped up quickly.


(now you know the Doc will be on any minute now)
Er, get with it over dere, the doc posted a new entry as he does about this time, 2 comments ago.

LOL
Live image from Erie PA.
Those are some pretty nice waves.
Erie has been in and out of the Lake Effect band this morning. The main focus of the band has been just to their NE.

Quoting 467. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.


pssssst,
for the archives,

Throwback Thursday Image

Hurricane Audrey radar




If readers are not familiar with Dr. Jennifer Francis, here is a link to a short precis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4spEuh8vswE
Jeff Masters and the rest of his Global Warming hysterical fellow travelers explain virtually every weather phenomenon on Global Warming. What Dr Jeff and his gang should contain in their written theories is a disclaimer revealing how much federal or private special interest money they receive. You can buy any "expert." opinion you want if the price is right. Dr Jeff--- please explain why the polar ice caps have been expanding rather than melting the past several years. Please explain where this year there have been more record lows than record highs. You trumpet every record high and remain silent on record lows, until the country is up to it's ears in snow, and then you explain it away using global warming as an excuse. What ever happened to the "hole in the ozone layer." haven't heard that old cry lately--- how about that radon gas in the basement???? Current junk science has seized up global warming as the latest costly scare tactic. Yet most of the global warming crowd is funded by the government or special interests who have something to gain. It is unfortunate when so called scientist sell their integrity to the highest bidder
Jennifer Francis's suggestion and all the other anthropogenic explanations cannot be right because the jets became progressively LESS wavy until around 2000 whilst CO2 amounts were increasing rapidly.

CO2 amounts continue to increase but the jets are now behaving differently.

A change which DOES correlate with the change in jet stream behaviour is the level of solar activity.
I prefer my hypothesis here:

http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/

as supported by this new paper here:

http://www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId= 147372&CultureCode=en

The cause appears to be an opposite sign ozone response to solar variations in the mesosphere as compared to the response in the stratosphere.

The mesosphere response then descends through the true polar vortex (not the circumpolar vortex)which is a column of descending air in the stratosphere above each pole which brings the mesosphere ozone response down into the stratosphere and alters tropopause heights above the poles.

It is the fall in tropopause height above the poles when the sun is quiet that pushes polar air outwards in a negative AO and AAO to make the climate zones shift equatorward and cause more meridional jets.

That in turn changes global cloudiness which affects the proportion of solar energy able to enter the oceans to drive the climate system.

Note that I have been drawing attention to the changes in jet stream behaviour since 2007 in various blogs having first noticed the beginning of the change from zonal to meridional in 2000.

My diagnosis of the real (solar) cause dates from 2010 and recent findings have been supporting it.

I had also observed the shift from meridional to zonal which occurred in the late 70s and which was a precursor for the late 20th century warming.

More meridional jets are a sign of cooling but it takes many years for the effect to filter through the system due to the thermal inertia of the oceans.