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U.S. Lightning Strikes May Increase 50% Due to Global Warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:04 PM GMT on November 14, 2014

A warmer world will have much more dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning capable of igniting more forest fires, according to a study published Thursday in the Journal Science. The research found that for each degree Centigrade (1.8°F) of global warming, lightning in the U.S. is expected to increase by 12%. This would result in about a 50% increase in lightning by the year 2100, assuming business-as-usual emissions result in a world that is 4°C (7°F) warmer. Main author David Romps of the University of California-Berkeley said in a press release, “This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time…the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and the more precipitation, the more lightning.” The study looked at U.S. lightning statistics for the year 2011, and discovered that a simple measure of atmospheric heat and moisture--the precipitation rate multiplied by the stability of the atmosphere (expressed as the Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE)--could describe 77% of the variation in lighting. By applying this simple measure to predicted levels of heat and moisture in a future warmer world, the scientists came up with their predictions for more lightning. The study makes sense from basic principles, and brings up three major concerns about the impacts of a future world with more lightning:

1) More lightning-caused fires
2) More lightning-caused ozone pollution and thus global warming
3) More lightning direct strike deaths and damages


Figure 1. Lightning sparks a grass fire near Granite, Oklahoma on June 8, 2008. Image credit: wunderphotographer Glenn Patterson.

The costs and death toll from lightning-caused fires in the U.S. and Canada
Over the ten years from 2003 - 2012, 42 U.S. firefighters were killed as a result of lightning-caused fires. An additional 19 firefighters were killed by the lightning-caused Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona in 2013. U.S. wildfire fighting costs averaged $1.8 billion annually during 2009 - 2013, according to Headwaters Economics. Although only 15% of U.S. wildfires were ignited by lightning between 2001 - 2010, these accounted for approximately 60% of the acres burned, and much of the annual costs of firefighting, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. For example, in 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire, the largest fire in New Mexico history, and the Rush Fire, the 2nd largest in California history, were both triggered by lightning strikes. Lighting also causes building fires through direct strikes. The National Fire Protection Association says that lightning-caused fires that are responded to by local fire departments in the U.S. killed an average of nine people per year and did $451 million in direct property damage per year between 2007 - 2012.

Environment Canada estimates that lightning strikes are responsible for 45% of all wildfires in Canada and 81% of the total area burned. The cost of lightning-related damage and disruption to the Canadian economy was estimated to be between $600 million and $1 billion each year (Mills et al. 2009).


Figure 2. Smoke rises from the uncontrolled northern front of the lightning-ignited Gap fire on July 5, 2008 near Goleta, California. President Bush declared a state of emergency for all of California in July 2008 in response to more than 1,400 fires that were mostly started by dry lightning storms on June 20, 2008. More than 19,000 firefighters from 42 states battled the California wildfires. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)

Death and damages due to direct lightning strikes
In addition to killing people in lighting-caused fires, lightning kills people with direct strikes. In 2006 - 2013, an average of 33 people per year died as a result of lightning strikes, according to NOAA. So far in 2014, 25 people have been killed. Fishing, camping and boating were the three highest risk activities for people dying from lightning strikes, according to a 2013 NWS study. The insured costs of direct lightning strikes have been rising in recents years, due to an increase in valuable home electronics that get fried in a strike. These damages were approximately $1 billion per year in 2010 - 2011, according to the Insurance Information Institute.

Lightning-caused forest fires may increase at a lesser rate
Climate models show that the increase in instability (higher CAPE) due to global warming is not expected to be uniform over the U.S., with strong increases over the Southeast U.S., and little increase over the Western U.S., where the majority of lightning-caused fires originate. The 12% increase in lighting per °C of global warming the study found is averaged over the entire U.S., and the increase in lightning is likely to be much lower over the Western United States--perhaps a factor of six less. A 2007 study by Del Genio et al. found that increasing the global temperature by 2.7°C would cause drying over the Western U.S. that would lead to fewer thunderstorms overall. However, the strongest thunderstorms increased in number by 26%, leading to a 6% increase in the total amount of lighting hitting the ground each year, or about a 2% increase per °C of global warming.

Increased lightning will create more ozone pollution and more global warming
Lightning creates nitrogen oxides, which in turn react to make significant amounts of ozone in the lower atmosphere--a dangerous pollutant that seriously impacts human health and crop growth. Ozone is also a greenhouse gas, so global warming-caused increases in lightning could potentially cause additional global warming of a few percent. How much is uncertain, as estimates of lightning-produced nitrogen oxides vary by up to a factor of four. Lower-atmosphere ozone was responsible for about 12% of human-caused global warming due to greenhouse gases in 2011, according to the 2013 IPCC report. However, increased ozone due to lightning could be offset somewhat by the fact that lightning-created nitrogen oxides trigger chemical reactions that help destroy methane, another potent greenhouse gas.


Video 1. ‪Every Lightning Strike in America in 2011, In One Minute‬. Data from the National Lightning Detection Network, UAlbany; animation by David Romps, UC Berkeley, and Phil Ebiner, UC Berkeley Public Affairs. Thursday's study in Science studied lightning over the U.S. in 2011 to come up with a simple way to represent lightning frequency based on how much heat and moisture is in the atmosphere.

Jeff Masters
A Tucson sunset
A Tucson sunset
Amazing sky last night in Tucson...one of my best lightning captures to-date. There is a rainbow in there too on the edge of the right bolt, hard to see with the orange color from the sunset :)
Pink Lightning
Pink Lightning
Lightnin show was better than the sunset this night.
Bahama Blast!
Bahama Blast!
My last night here in Freeport-and I am delighted to actually have a moment to document one of the ubiquitous evening thunderstorms rolling over the island. In splendid fashion, this one did not disappoint. Positive stroke lightning over the Atlantic-it originated from the storm's anvil.
Somewhere over the rainbow
Somewhere over the rainbow
It took me a few hundred shots but I finally captured the rainbow and the lightning.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
This shot was taken from Gulfport, Florida on May 28, 2014.
Cape San Blas Florida Storm
Cape San Blas Florida Storm
Lightning near Cape San Blas Florida
Birthday Candles
Birthday Candles
Taken July 3rd by my wife on her birthday.
Triple Threat
Triple Threat
I have hundreds of images of lightning, and a couple of cameras are still shooting...the most amazing night ever!
Double Trouble
Double Trouble
Lightning captured over Navarre Beach 24 August

Severe Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. VR46L
Quoting 483. StormTrackerScott:



The Euro is showing what would be a severe weather outbreak all the way down to S FL. Not what you want to see on Thanksgiving week. Oddly enough the Euro had this on its weeklies which I posted on Tuesday for the same timeframe.

The CMC is similar to the Euro as well. This could be interesting to say the least.




Scott GFS shows a slight chance of some severe in that time frame




Be careful posting the weeklies .... some of the other folk that pay for W-BELL don't seem to like sharing ...
That is funny. About 15 years ago I was sitting in a parking lot on Beltway on a cold winter night (accident, 495 closed). I was listening to a news report when they gave the travel delay info for O'Hare.


Quoting 479. georgevandenberghe:



When I was a kid in the DC metro area I used to listen to AM pop music stations from Chicago. Reception was usually excellent at night.

Update on snow: Advisory issued by Tulsa OK for north OK and Northwest AR, but nothing for me yet.
Surprised that PAducah hasn't issued an Aviation discussion or update or entirley new Area Forecast Discussion all day! Any idea why?
South-eastern France struck by deadly floods
EuroNews Video, 15/11 19:07 CET
Five people have died as floods struck the south-east of France.
In two separate incidents cars were swept off bridges by rising waters, killing the passengers inside.
Heavy rainfall affected Provence, the Languedoc and much of the French Alps and caused serious damage in much of the Rhone valley.


still to far out!
Quoting 62901IL:
Update on snow: Advisory issued by Tulsa OK for north OK and Northwest AR, but nothing for me yet.
Surprised that PAducah hasn't issued an Aviation discussion or update or entirley new Area Forecast Discussion all day! Any idea why?


They probably will soon.
You've got advisories to your S.W. and to your N.E.
You're local NWS forgot about you guys.
Quoting whitewabit:
we use to listen to WLS in Chicago on skip late at night where I was in 1972 .. we called in and requested a song which they didn't do at the time .. but after hearing where we were and that we were military they played it .. don't remember what the song was but we were calling from Thule, Greenland !!
Good for them. WLS, which used to be owned by Sears (WLS = World's Largest Store) is a 50,000 watt clear channel station. That means no other station in the US and Canada broadcasts on 890 from sunset to sunrise, when long distance reception is best. WLS is one of the best candidates to be heard all the way over in Greenland, especially because the trip across the ocean naturally has less static. WLW from Cincinnati on 700 kHz, WHO out of Des Moines on 1040 kHz, and KNX, 1070 kHz from Los Angeles are a some other stations that can usually be heard at great distances at night when conditions are right.
Quoting 365. Naga5000:



Ah yes, junk science supported by every major scientific organization in the world, and 97% of actively publishing climate scientists confirmed through 5 different studies using different methodologies.

Is it safe to begin to refer to those who deny science as "junk thinkers" since they believe this silly conspiracy theory?


People really baffle me, in terms of how they can reject large bodies of hard, consistent evidence, but believe crazy myths that are opinions of a few people who don't have a reasonable solid foundation.

I am proud to be a U.S. citizen, but I am baffled by how Americans specifically have this problem, when we have the largest number of people that have access to solid science education.

Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
That is funny. About 15 years ago I was sitting in a parking lot on Beltway on a cold winter night (accident, 495 closed). I was listening to a news report when they gave the travel delay info for O'Hare.


Some of the older car radios, especially Motorola, were some of the most sensitive AM radio receivers ever built. A car is not an ideal platform for AM reception, so car radio makers would usually add a couple of tuned stages to increase the sensitivity and selectivity. I have one that's the same as the one in the picture, hooked up to a 12 volt power supply and a good antenna, and it still does a better job getting DX signals at night than my $1800 ham radio. You can generally pick one up for less than $30 on fleabay. It's a cheap way to listen to distant AM stations if you like doing such things.

Quoting 483. StormTrackerScott:



The Euro is showing what would be a severe weather outbreak all the way down to S FL. Not what you want to see on Thanksgiving week. Oddly enough the Euro had this on its weeklies which I posted on Tuesday for the same timeframe.

The CMC is similar to the Euro as well. This could be interesting to say the least.





Yes but it would also bring more cold air into Florida with that strong of a trough which makes for festive weather.

I enjoy the cold here this time of year, because it never gets bad enough to hate down here in Florida, so I say let it come.

Besides, beneficial rain would likely bring more benefit than any severe threat. I highly doubt the risk would end up being any worse than a strong sea breeze collision does on any given summer day in Florida. Its not like a few severe thunderstorms in Florida is anything we can't handle. This isn't going to be a brutal tornado outbreak, so I wouldn't be worried, and that's assuming that even verifies.
Quoting 469. StormTrackerScott:

If the Euro is correct then SE Texas over to FL are going to be in for what could be a tornado outbreak Thanksgiving week. Very serious set up on the Euro being portrayed that week.

997mb over eastern Tennessee is significant.




That low would have to be a lot further south for a serious tornado outbreak in Florida. We would be too far removed from the vertical shear and vorticity. However, if that placement happened, a low of 997 would induce a strong LLJ and plenty of forcing to produce a lot of heavy rain plenty of thunderstorms.
Quoting 510. Jedkins01:



People really baffle me, in terms of how they can reject large bodies of hard, consistent evidence, but believe crazy myths that are opinions of a few people who don't have a reasonable solid foundation.

I am proud to be a U.S. citizen, but I am baffled by how Americans specifically have this problem, when we have the largest number of people that have access to solid science education.




I look at it from the sociological perspective of postmodernism. We are all postmodern consumers of information. When we reach this state in society, it is no longer easy to tell the difference between reality and simulations of reality. Simulations seek to replace or, in some cases, redefine reality to something else that is unreal or hyperreal. Because of this societal state, we see all sources of information as being equally valid, we then make our decision based on which choice fits better with our understanding and definitions of reality. We reject those that do not conform to our preconceived notions and accept those that do. It's possible that being acutely aware of this makes you less likely to reject objective reality (i.e. education, exposure to different ideas and concepts)

And there you essentially have the theoretical background of my thesis. :)
To date, the CONUS temperature average is about 2C below the 1981-2010 average. We'll see how the final number ends up after next week's arctic blast and then warmup towards the end of the month.

517. flsky
I've always wondered - what comes after "post modern."

Quoting 515. Naga5000:



I look at it from the sociological perspective of postmodernism. We are all postmodern consumers of information. When we reach this state in society, it is no longer easy to tell the difference between reality and simulations of reality. Simulations seek to replace or, in some cases, redefine reality to something else that is unreal or hyperreal. Because of this societal state, we see all sources of information as being equally valid, we then make our decision based on which choice fits better with our understanding and definitions of reality. We reject those that do not conform to our preconceived notions and accept those that do. It's possible that being acutely aware of this makes you less likely to reject objective reality (i.e. education, exposure to different ideas and concepts)

And there you essentially have the theoretical background of my thesis. :)
GEOS-5 showing the chance of severe weather for Thanksgiving morning across Central Florida as well..

LA & MS may have severe weather this Monday.
Quoting Jedkins01:


People really baffle me, in terms of how they can reject large bodies of hard, consistent evidence, but believe crazy myths that are opinions of a few people who don't have a reasonable solid foundation.

I am proud to be a U.S. citizen, but I am baffled by how Americans specifically have this problem, when we have the largest number of people that have access to solid science education.

It's not just Americans. There are just more of us, so these people get more exposure. There are denier web sites out of Australia, England, France, and Russia as well. If you think that this AGW stuff is a bunch of malarkey, there are literally hundreds of sites on the web that will agree with you. Not only that, but denier web sites tend to be funny, folksy, and don't use lots of big words. Many AGW sites have a distinct left-wing bias, which turns a lot of people off. The more important ones, like SkepticalScience, try to stick to facts, but many of the Wordpress variety seem to be unable to go more than one paragraph without excoriating Bush or the Koch Brothers. They may be correct, but they are alienating the very audience they hope to reach. Progressives generally don't need to be convinced, and we won't convince many of those right of center by making fun of an ex-president.
Quoting 504. barbamz:

South-eastern France struck by deadly floods
EuroNews Video, 15/11 19:07 CET
Five people have died as floods struck the south-east of France.
In two separate incidents cars were swept off bridges by rising waters, killing the passengers inside.
Heavy rainfall affected Provence, the Languedoc and much of the French Alps and caused serious damage in much of the Rhone valley.



Looking at the weather forecast for the whole of the south east of France and the northern Italy area. This kind of tragedy is probably going to continue for at least several days to come.
SAR wrote a comment on the affects of the Russian high and the suction of southerly and western moist air earlier, which was interesting to say the least.
Link below.

http://www.sat24.com/foreloop.aspx?type=1

Link
Quoting 505. hurricanes2018:



still to far out!


Excuse me, but what is that blue in LA.
Quoting downdabayou:


Excuse me, but what is that blue in LA.
Snow.
YEAH BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WINTER STORM ALBUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Confidence has increased enough at this point to warrant a Winter
Weather Advisory for all except the southern Pennyrile region of
western KY for the Sunday night time frame
.
WOOOHOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
*Begins doing victory dance, combines it with the Lotsa Snow dance, and sings Ganon your face*


more cold weather coming soon
Quoting 524. 62901IL:

YEAH BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WINTER STORM ALBUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Confidence has increased enough at this point to warrant a Winter
Weather Advisory for all except the southern Pennyrile region of
western KY for the Sunday night time frame
.
WOOOHOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
*Begins doing victory dance, combines it with the Lotsa Snow dance, and sings Ganon your face*
what in the world is a snow dance!!!
Quoting Jedkins01:


People really baffle me, in terms of how they can reject large bodies of hard, consistent evidence, but believe crazy myths that are opinions of a few people who don't have a reasonable solid foundation.

I am proud to be a U.S. citizen, but I am baffled by how Americans specifically have this problem, when we have the largest number of people that have access to solid science education.



Sounds a little similar to this:

A religion is an organized collection of beliefs, cultural systems, and world views that relate humanity to an order of existence.[note 1] Many religions have narratives, symbols, and sacred histories that are intended to explain the meaning of life and/or to explain the origin of life or the Universe. From their beliefs about the cosmos and human nature, people derive morality, ethics, religious laws or a preferred lifestyle.
Quoting Jedkins01:


People really baffle me, in terms of how they can reject large bodies of hard, consistent evidence, but believe crazy myths that are opinions of a few people who don't have a reasonable solid foundation.

I am proud to be a U.S. citizen, but I am baffled by how Americans specifically have this problem, when we have the largest number of people that have access to solid science education.



Climate change is a very unpleasant thought, so most people would like to put it out of their minds and assume it's not their problem. When they are bothered with it, they try to mount up all the evidence that they can find to justify their skepticism and indifference.

It's human nature. We're not proactive.
Quoting 517. flsky:

I've always wondered - what comes after "post modern."




Post-postmodern. Duh. :)
Quoting 507. sar2401:

Good for them. WLS, which used to be owned by Sears (WLS = World's Largest Store) is a 50,000 watt clear channel station. That means no other station in the US and Canada broadcasts on 890 from sunset to sunrise, when long distance reception is best. WLS is one of the best candidates to be heard all the way over in Greenland, especially because the trip across the ocean naturally has less static. WLW from Cincinnati on 700 kHz, WHO out of Des Moines on 1040 kHz, and KNX, 1070 kHz from Los Angeles are a some other stations that can usually be heard at great distances at night when conditions are right.


And the memory is jogged. WLS was the distant station I listened to the most in the DC area although I do remember another one that was almost as good.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
what in the world is a snow dance!!!


A dance that brings snow to you.
Combined, the Victory dance and the lotsa snow dance go like this:
Left foot out, left foot in, right foot out, right foot in.
And there is a lot of jumping around too.
here is the winter weather advisory.
Link
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNE ETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...C AIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLI NTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITH LAND...BENTON...
MARION...EDDYVILLE...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DI XON...
MADISONVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN... PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...
POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
412 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY.

* A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF SLEET OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE
QUICKER THE SLEET GOES OVER TO SNOW...THE HIGHER THE SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AROUND MID EVENING
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL
LATE AT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

* IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE ADVISORY REGION. AMOUNTS MAY BE TAPERED IN AREAS
THAT HAVE A LATER TRANSITION FROM RAIN AND SLEET OR TO SNOW. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.

* WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...UNTREATED
ROADWAYS WILL BECOME QUITE SLICK. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL
FREEZE BEFORE UNELEVATED ROADS. IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS COULD
BE QUITE HAZARDOUS COME MORNING RUSH HOUR...AND WHEN CHILDREN
RETURN TO SCHOOL ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.
be back later!
Quoting 515. Naga5000:



I look at it from the sociological perspective of postmodernism. We are all postmodern consumers of information. When we reach this state in society, it is no longer easy to tell the difference between reality and simulations of reality. Simulations seek to replace or, in some cases, redefine reality to something else that is unreal or hyperreal. Because of this societal state, we see all sources of information as being equally valid, we then make our decision based on which choice fits better with our understanding and definitions of reality. We reject those that do not conform to our preconceived notions and accept those that do. It's possible that being acutely aware of this makes you less likely to reject objective reality (i.e. education, exposure to different ideas and concepts)

And there you essentially have the theoretical background of my thesis. :)



I completely agree.
Quoting 484. sar2401:

While we had the heaviest rains and flooding in January and February, the rainfall in the Bay Area was above normal from November through February, with only December being below average. November was 250% of normal. December changed, with rainfall only being about 70% of normal, but still far better than the previous year. January and February were basically one continuous rainstorm with only a occasional rain free day. The worst was the New Year's Day floods, just a year after the New Year's Day floods of 1997. There were levees breaking all over the place, and parts of Sacramento were under water, along with much of the Sacramento Valley. We were doing water rescues for what seemed like a week at a time, get a couple of days break, and then it started all over. Then, right at the end of February, it stopped. March and April were below normal, while May was above normal due to a couple of freak storms, but no more flooding. I guess El Nino and the Pineapple Connection both died at the same time. For me, only the winter of 1986 was worse.


The 1997-98 winter is a very murky haze for me because I had a 17 month old toddler who climbed out of his crib, and newborn twins in December and one of the twins needed major surgery in January (fortunately successful). I remember little of that period but I do remember anticipating heavy rain and flooding and a very strong subtropical Jet with low latitude baroclinic disturbances in fall 1997 as a known El Nino signal and I remember December underproducing before the Jan/Feb events. The winter was extremely wet in the DC metro area but with virtually no snow. Mountain locations not far to our west had their snowiest winter of record to that time. It is the only winter I haven't had to protect my citrus trees in the DJF period.. just left them outside (I did in mid March because of an arctic outbreak). Winter was kind to me that exhausting year.
Quoting 527. Sfloridacat5:



Sounds a little similar to this:

A religion is an organized collection of beliefs, cultural systems, and world views that relate humanity to an order of existence.[note 1] Many religions have narratives, symbols, and sacred histories that are intended to explain the meaning of life and/or to explain the origin of life or the Universe. From their beliefs about the cosmos and human nature, people derive morality, ethics, religious laws or a preferred lifestyle.


I'm a very religious person, religion shouldn't impact that. Sure its used as an excuse, but people use a lot of excuses to avoid problems.

Science and religion don't conflict because science and religion are two separate things. Religion doesn't deal with matters of science, and science never has anything to do with religion.
Sure, some people want science and religion to conflict, and make it so, but in of themselves, they don't.

People assume they are at least somewhat because of social constructs, produced by the religious and non-relgious.


518. Skyepony (Mod) 9:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2014
GEOS-5 showing the chance of severe weather for Thanksgiving morning across Central Florida as well..


'twas a Christmas Day tornadic event in Lake City that brought me and my hubby together for the first time...gotta love weather and the holidays.
Quoting 517. flsky:

I've always wondered - what comes after "post modern."




Pre-Armageddon?
Quoting 539. aquak9:

518. Skyepony (Mod) 9:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2014
GEOS-5 showing the chance of severe weather for Thanksgiving morning across Central Florida as well..


'twas a Christmas Day tornadic event in Lake City that brought me and my hubby together for the first time...gotta love weather and the holidays.


I remember that Christmas Day severe event. We didn't get any tornadoes in the area at my parents house( Near Clearwater FL, Tampa Bay area), but we did get 2 inches of rain and a brief loss of power from either very strong winds are all the crazy lightning we had.

The relatives were amazed it the craziness of the weather on Christmas Day, I just old them welcome to Florida, where severe thunderstorms are randomly possible any day of the year.
Jedkins! you were around that day, too? oh, it was what, eight years ago this Christmas? or maybe seven years ago.
Wasn't there a toddler involved, got swooped up by the wind, and laid down unharmed?
Quoting aquak9:
518. Skyepony (Mod) 9:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2014
GEOS-5 showing the chance of severe weather for Thanksgiving morning across Central Florida as well..


'twas a Christmas Day tornadic event in Lake City that brought me and my hubby together for the first time...gotta love weather and the holidays.


'twas a Christmas night when we got the Christmas Blizzard of 2012...'twas a good day to be lurking on the blog...'twas a good day to keep watching SPC for tornadic stuff...'twas a good day to go outside and see whether or not it was snowing...'twas a good day that I don't celebrate...'twas a good day to watch the NWS Paducah homepage for updates for the blizzard...
twas a good day for everything.
Quoting 507. sar2401:

Good for them. WLS, which used to be owned by Sears (WLS = World's Largest Store) is a 50,000 watt clear channel station. That means no other station in the US and Canada broadcasts on 890 from sunset to sunrise, when long distance reception is best. WLS is one of the best candidates to be heard all the way over in Greenland, especially because the trip across the ocean naturally has less static. WLW from Cincinnati on 700 kHz, WHO out of Des Moines on 1040 kHz, and KNX, 1070 kHz from Los Angeles are a some other stations that can usually be heard at great distances at night when conditions are right.


we picked up several west coast and east coast stations too .. We cheated a bit .. was NCOIC of Com up there and we turned the bishops hat toward the Midwest .. we were waiting on new equipment and wasn't using it at the time ..
Quoting 514. Jedkins01:


That low would have to be a lot further south for a serious tornado outbreak in Florida. We would be too far removed from the vertical shear and vorticity. However, if that placement happened, a low of 997 would induce a strong LLJ and plenty of forcing to produce a lot of heavy rain plenty of thunderstorms.


Jed I can't post the day 9 on weatherbell but it looks very onimous. If the Euro pans out then it could be a dangerous set up for the Gulf Coast region. Euro has a strong low over SW GA at day 9 with plenty of upper & low level energy to boot.
Quoting 546. StormTrackerScott:



Jed I can't post the day 9 on weatherbell but it looks very onimous. If the Euro pans out then it could be a dangerous set up for the Gulf Coast region. Euro has a strong low over SW GA at day 9 with plenty of upper & low level energy to boot.


You can understand my skepticism though. Models are notorious for making these types of events look ominous in the extended, only to not be so bad later on. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but more than likely it wouldn't be anything dangerous.

But because of Florida's geography, severe weather can happen anytime of year, as long as the right event occurs, so it can't be dismissed entirely. I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't worry about right now.

Now this solution is still being shown a few days out, that's a different story. Still that placement of the low doesn't scream tornado outbreak to me, it looks like more of a strong wind squall line scenario.
Quoting whitewabit:


we picked up several west coast and east coast stations too .. We cheated a bit .. was NCOIC of Com up there and we turned the bishops hat toward the Midwest .. we were waiting on new equipment and wasn't using it at the time ..
Ah, well, having a nice directional groundwave antenna like and being in the middle of nowhere would definitely increase your chances of picking up almost any US AM station. I've been looking at Beverage antennas for the same kind of thing but, at about $3,000, it's a little out of my price range.
Quoting 548. PensacolaDoug:



How offensive can one post be? Think Gruber for Obamacare and Obama himself with the "If you like your healthcare plan you can keep your healthcare plan, period," comments which he repeated ad-nauseum. The paid shills on this site are on the left.


What does climate science have to do with Obamcare?
Time to go, was really enjoying the blog for a change......and then the political idiots showed up!
Quoting rayduray2013:

The answer is pretty straightforward. American corporation have paid millions to lie to the public. It would not surprise me in the least if it turned out that some of the deniers doing their hit-and-run postings on this blog are paid PR prostitutes.

"What company has spent more to promote the denial of climate change than
any other? ExxonMobil, with at least $29.9 million since 1997."





I highly doubt that, to be honest.
George Harrison's "Wah,Wah" comes to mind suddenly.

Hare Krishna'

: P
Quoting 509. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Snow in ALL IOWA o-o


U.S. to Give $3 Billion to Climate Fund to Help Poor Nations, and Spur Rich Ones
By CORAL DAVENPORT and MARK LANDLERNOV. 14, 2014


WASHINGTON — President Obama announced on Saturday that the United States will contribute $3 billion to a new international fund intended to help the world’s poorest countries address the effects of climate change.

Mr. Obama made the announcement at a summit meeting of the Group of 20 industrial powers this weekend in Brisbane, Australia, on the heels of his landmark announcement this week that the United States and China will jointly commit to curbing greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade.

The two announcements, both unveiled at prominent global meetings with world leaders, highlight Mr. Obama’s intention to use the last two years of his administration to push forward on climate change policy, which he sees as a cornerstone of his legacy.


President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China, with their delegations, met inside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Wednesday.U.S. and China Reach Climate Accord After Months of TalksNOV. 11, 2014
Mr. Obama aims to be the lead broker of an international climate change accord, to be signed in Paris next year, that would commit all the world’s major economies to significantly cutting their emissions of planet-warming carbon pollution from the burning of coal and oil.

“We’re doing this because it is in our national interest to build resilience in developing countries to climate change,” said the senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to explain the announcement.

“It is a vital part of establishing momentum” behind the global climate talks in Paris next year, a second American official said.

But Mr. Obama’s pledge, spending American tax dollars on foreign aid related to climate change, is certain to garner further criticism from Republicans, who have already denounced his domestic climate change policies as “job-killing” regulations.

On Wednesday, after Mr. Obama announced in China that the United States would cut its emissions by 26 to 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025, Speaker John A. Boehner said, “This announcement is yet another sign that the president intends to double down on his job-crushing policies no matter how devastating the impact for America’s heartland and the country as a whole.”

It is not clear whether Mr. Obama’s $3 billion pledge will come from existing sources of funding, or whether he will have to ask Congress to appropriate the money. Since 2010, the Obama administration has spent about $2.5 billion to help poor countries adapt to climate change and develop clean sources of energy, but Republicans are certain to push back against additional funding requests linked to climate change and foreign aid.

The pledge is directed to the Green Climate Fund, a financial institution created last year by the United Nations with headquarters in Incheon, South Korea. It comes ahead of a Nov. 20 climate meeting in Berlin, at which countries have been asked to make formal commitments to the fund.

In December, global climate negotiators will gather in Lima, Peru, to begin drafting the 2015 Paris accord.

The American contribution is meant to spur other countries to make similar pledges. Christiana Figueres, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has called for governments to create an initial fund of about $10 billion.

Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story
Even before Mr. Obama’s pledge, at least 10 countries, including France, Germany and South Korea, had pledged a total of around $3 billion to the fund. On Thursday, the Kyodo News Agency reported that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan would announce a contribution of about $1.5 billion at the Group of 20 meeting. The American contribution is expected to be the largest.

“The contribution by the U.S. will have a direct impact on mobilizing contributions from the other large economies,” said Hela Cheikhrouhou, executive director of the Green Climate Fund. “The other large economies — Japan, the U.K. — have been watching to see what the U.S. will do.”

David Waskow, an expert on climate change negotiations with the World Resources Institute, a research organization in Washington, said: “This continues the momentum and really builds on what they did with the announcement in China. I think we’ll now see a broader set of actors who are willing to make contributions.”

Money, and lots of it, is viewed as a crucial part of reaching a climate change deal in Paris in 2015. In particular, the world’s least developed economies insist that the world’s richest economies — which are also the largest greenhouse gas polluters — must commit to paying billions of dollars to help the world’s poorest adapt to the ravages of climate change.

Other nations are likely to view an American pledge of climate funding as a small down payment on a long-term commitment to ultimately send tens of billions of dollars in public aid and private investment related to climate change.

“Finance has become this zero-sum game. Put money on the table and we’ll talk; if you don’t put money on the table then we’ll walk,” said Rachel Kyte, vice president for sustainability for the World Bank, which is closely involved in the climate funding talks. “It’s an essential component of a deal.”

At a 2009 climate change summit meeting in Copenhagen, Hillary Rodham Clinton, then the secretary of state, pledged that by 2020 the United States would help mobilize $100 billion, through a combination of public aid and private investments, to flow annually from rich countries to help the poor economies deal with climate change.

Coral Davenport reported from Washington, and Mark Landler from Yangon, Myanmar.
Quoting 512. sar2401:

Some of the older car radios, especially Motorola, were some of the most sensitive AM radio receivers ever built. A car is not an ideal platform for AM reception, so car radio makers would usually add a couple of tuned stages to increase the sensitivity and selectivity. I have one that's the same as the one in the picture, hooked up to a 12 volt power supply and a good antenna, and it still does a better job getting DX signals at night than my $1800 ham radio. You can generally pick one up for less than $30 on fleabay. It's a cheap way to listen to distant AM stations if you like doing such things.


My AC Delco still works..By the way, the T.V. thing was Texas, not Illinois..
Barely made it out of the 30's into the 40's today for many locations.Reached 32 for a low in downtown D.C.28 degrees for a low at my place.Definitely felt like winter.Now temperatures are dropping like a rock after a high of 41 at my house and will be back in the low 30's to possibly again the upper 20's.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Barely made it out of the 30's into the 40's today for many locations.Reached 32 in downtown D.C.28 degrees for a low at my place.Definitely felt like winter.Now temperatures are dropping like a rock after a high of 41 at my house and will be back in the low 30's to possibly again the upper 20's.

It reached 39 degrees in ZIP62901


i am happy i see some snow in the mid-west tonight i wish the snow will come here but to warm for snow in new haven to boston all rain with temp around 50F ON monday
Quoting 563. hurricanes2018:



i am happy i see some snow in the mid-west tonight i wish the snow will come here but to warm for snow in new haven to boston all rain with temp around 50F ON monday


Map isn't accurate .. no snow in central Illinois .. though this map shows we should have the ground white ....
Quoting 562. 62901IL:


It reached 39 degrees in ZIP62901
If only the timing was right we would have a snowstorm and not a rain storm next week.It will rain on Monday when the high will be 49 and not Tuesday where the temps will be 30-35 degrees for highs.I'm so mad!.Timing timing timing!.why couldn't it time right!.Dammit I lose!..well it's time to go watch a movie with the kids.They have been harassing me all day about it.
The GFS has these systems spinning up quick and moving very fast...Which usually means trouble for someone..

Quoting 556. Patrap:

George Harrison's "Wah,Wah" comes to mind suddenly.

Hare Krishna'

: P

Writing as a pre-Armagedonist, I feel that though the media and rock stars of the 60s may have appeared to be deluded, at least they tried to raise awareness in the general public.
Needless to say we still have a long way to go before the average human on the block achieves Nirvana?
Meanwhile, we of the northern hemisphere have yet another winter to survive.
Quoting ncstorm:
Women were called bimbos last night..I am not surprised that prostitutes were used today in name calling..

This blog can not have a discussion of a political aspect applied and state its allowed in the name of science...it never stays on just science..one of the most asinine rules ever allowed here..






Admin! Propose a rule that says 'No name calling of any type on the blog.'
------------------------------------------------- --
On another note... here is the confidence scale again.
> mark=extent of confidence.

Forecast: Snow showers\flurries for tonight

Low----------------Medium-----------------High
--------->

Forecast: Snow and sleet at onset of Winter Storm Albus.

Low----------------Medium-----------------High
-------------------------------------->

Forecast: Snow and sleet begins at 12pm Sunday

Low----------------Medium-----------------High
--------------------------->

Forecast: 1-2 inches of snow for all areas except Southern Pennyrile region of Kentucky (uncertain), Indiana and Northwest Kentucky (2-4 inches).

Low----------------Medium ----------------High
------------------------------------------->

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A LINGERING EASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL LIKELY KEEP A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES ON SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION ON MONDAY. A LINE OF
GUSTY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.


A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY OFFSHORE.

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AT INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.
Quoting 566. washingtonian115:

If only the timing was right we would have a snowstorm and not a rain storm next week.It will rain on Monday when the high will be 49 and not Tuesday where the temps will be 30-35 degrees for highs.I'm so mad!.Timing timing timing!.why couldn't it time right!.Dammit I lose!..well it's time to go watch a movie with the kids.They have been harassing me all day about it.

Washie,
You could always move to Alaska!
Guaranteed snow and climatic cold; why even today the temps in Barrow Alaska are 2.5/C below Zero. Not bad when you consider they should be -16/C, or below for the time of year but still they will be getting SNOW and probably the odd passing drift.
Quoting 562. 62901IL:


It reached 39 degrees in ZIP62901


It hit 38 here and it was sleeting a little while i was walking my dog an hour ago. It's like she always wants to go for a walk in the cold. It's all snow now.
Quoting 572. PlazaRed:


Washie,
You could always move to Alaska!
Guaranteed snow and climatic cold; why even today the temps in Barrow Alaska are 2.5/C below Zero. Not bad when you consider they should be -16/C, or below for the time of year but still they will be getting SNOW and probably the odd passing drift.


only thing the snow up there isn't like what you are use to .. its so cold its more ice crystals then snow flakes .. but then you would get to see diamond dust several times a winter ..
Quoting 569. DonnieBwkGA:

39/54 today. Cloudy, breezy and chilly..
its 30F HERE and windy in new haven,conn!
post 571- thanks Scott- there go my cucumbers :(
578. flsky
Some people I interact with say they are religious and scientific and that religious stories are metaphors. In my opinion, these people are enlightened, but fighting the contradictions by using the metaphor label. Must be a difficult internal struggle.

Quoting 538. Jedkins01:



I'm a very religious person, religion shouldn't impact that. Sure its used as an excuse, but people use a lot of excuses to avoid problems.

Science and religion don't conflict because science and religion are two separate things. Religion doesn't deal with matters of science, and science never has anything to do with religion.
Sure, some people want science and religion to conflict, and make it so, but in of themselves, they don't.

People assume they are at least somewhat because of social constructs, produced by the religious and non-relgious.



579. flsky
When one has to claim a favorite Beatle, he is mine. Eric Clapton, however, is a slime bag.
Quoting 556. Patrap:

George Harrison's "Wah,Wah" comes to mind suddenly.

Hare Krishna'

: P
Quoting 577. aquak9:
post 571- thanks Scott- there go my cucumbers :(


We could use the rain though.
I took a 1 hour vacation!!
But now I'm heading out to see a play. "Jesus Christ Superstar" at PSC. Ought to be fun.
Quoting 579. flsky:

When one has to claim a favorite Beatle, he is mine. Eric Clapton, however, is a slime bag.


"Let those without sin, cast the first stone."(John 8:7)
1.30 am here in a quiet southern Europe.
As a devout pre Armagedonist and weary human, I must retire at this point, wishing everybody, good night, leaving the care and observation of mother Earth in the trusty hands of all those in the Western lands.
No doubt by morning everything will be scene inner fresh light!
Quoting 580. StormTrackerScott:


We could use the rain though.

oh- I totally agree on the rain, Scott- just not wanting to see the freezing temps. That'll kill the cucumbers for sure. Was hoping for maybe just 3-4 more weeks before the first freeze.
Above is a European model forecast loop through late next week depicting where the coldest air will be.

With blocking high pressure aloft over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada, a direct pipeline of cold air will come from Siberia to near the North Pole, then southward into Canada and the U.S., particularly the Plains and Midwest. While not nearly as cold in magnitude, the arctic surges will also sweep into parts of the East.

This is a classic Arctic outbreak pattern that will remain largely locked in over these areas into next week.

Here is the general forecast timing of each arctic cold surge, and when the coldest air may ease:

- Current arctic surge: Spreads into the East through Saturday

- Second arctic surge: Plunges down the High Plains and Rockies through the weekend.

- Third arctic surge: Arrives in Northern Plains, Upper Midwest Sunday, then sweeps into the Ohio Valley, Deep South and East next Tuesday and Wednesday. For parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Middle Atlantic States, this could be the coldest of the surges with numerous daily record lows threatened.

- Cold relief: Possible later next week at least for the Rockies, central/southern Plains and South. Another cold surge may plunge into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast late next week.

Forecast highs in the Twin Cities will be stuck in the 20s, at best, through much of next week. This will rival the longest November subfreezing streaks on record there (see graphic at right). Some of those days will see daytime highs colder than their climatologically coldest average highs in January (23 degrees).

According to the National Weather Service, Chicago has only seen six other stretches below 40 degrees so early in the season, last occurring from Nov. 11-17, 1997. The Windy City may not see 40 degrees until next weekend.

After highs topped out near 80 degrees in Dallas Monday, highs into at least early next week will do no better than the 50s. In fact, a few days may not see highs get out of the 40s there. For reference, average highs in Dallas during the coldest time of year (late December into early January) are in the mid-50s.

Oklahoma City may not see the 50-degree mark until sometime later next week, after soaring to 80 degrees Monday. Their average high in early January is 49 degrees.

Given this cold air in place, we will keep a close eye on any jet stream disturbance rippling through. Each has the potential to produce snow, sleet or freezing rain.
Quoting 583. PlazaRed:


"Let those without sin, cast the first stone."(John 8:7)
1.30 am here in a quiet southern Europe.
As a devout pre Armagedonist and weary human, I must retire at this point, wishing everybody, good night, leaving the care and observation of mother Earth in the trusty hands of all those in the Western lands.
No doubt by morning everything will be scene inner fresh light!



Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
From the midnight sun where the hot springs flow.
The hammer of the gods will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying: Valhalla, I am coming!
588. flsky
I'm certainly not w/o sin and guess what, I can still cast a stone, first or otherwise.
Quoting 583. PlazaRed:


"Let those without sin, cast the first stone."(John 8:7)
1.30 am here in a quiet southern Europe.
As a devout pre Armagedonist and weary human, I must retire at this point, wishing everybody, good night, leaving the care and observation of mother Earth in the trusty hands of all those in the Western lands.
No doubt by morning everything will be scene inner fresh light!
Quoting 535. 62901IL:

be back later!
Guess it started snowing. .....
590. DDR
Good evening
6-8 inches forecasted over the next week for T&T,we have severe flooding and saturated soils in the most of the island,the exception be the north coast and extreme north-western areas of Trinidad.
Quoting hydrus:
My AC Delco still works..By the way, the T.V. thing was Texas, not Illinois..
The thing about VHF TV skip is it doesn't really matter very much how far away you are when the sunspot cycle is at a peak. As long as you can see the picture, it comes in like a local station. That lasts until the ionosphere gets less charged or the sun starts to go down, since VHF skip is the opposite of lower frequencies, and happens during daylight. Back in the 70's, I'd get stations from Salt Lake or Denver in California with some regularity. Unfortunately, our kids will never know the thrill of seeing some strange TV station show up. The switch to digital moved all the channels higher in frequency and the amount of transmitting power was cut by about 70%, so the chances of TV skip now are about nil.
Quoting 538. Jedkins01:



I'm a very religious person, religion shouldn't impact that. Sure its used as an excuse, but people use a lot of excuses to avoid problems.

Science and religion don't conflict because science and religion are two separate things. Religion doesn't deal with matters of science, and science never has anything to do with religion.
Sure, some people want science and religion to conflict, and make it so, but in of themselves, they don't.

People assume they are at least somewhat because of social constructs, produced by the religious and non-relgious.



Agree. Ironically much early science was produced by people who were also quite religious. They didn't see them as contrary. It would be like saying one must drink only milk or juice, never both.
Quoting DDR:
6-8 inch over the next week for T&T,we have severe flooding and saturated soils in the most of the island,the exception be the north-western areas of Trinidad.
Geez, it's been never ending there since it started. That's really about the only area of the Caribbean that's seeing any significant convection now too. I hope you get less than forecast this time.
Quoting 549. Jedkins01:



You can understand my skepticism though. Models are notorious for making these types of events look ominous in the extended, only to not be so bad later on. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but more than likely it wouldn't be anything dangerous.

But because of Florida's geography, severe weather can happen anytime of year, as long as the right event occurs, so it can't be dismissed entirely. I'm just pointing out that I wouldn't worry about right now.

Now this solution is still being shown a few days out, that's a different story. Still that placement of the low doesn't scream tornado outbreak to me, it looks like more of a strong wind squall line scenario.


It's been quite some time since we've has a really substantial, widespread severe weather event in the Orlando area (fortunately). We certainly are due. I just hope for rain!
Quoting 584. hurricanes2018:


Cold relief: Possible later next week at least for the Rockies, central/southern Plains and South. Another cold surge may plunge into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast late next week.
Quoting DDR:
Good evening
6-8 inches forecasted over the next week for T&T,we have severe flooding and saturated soils in the most of the island,the exception be the north-western areas of Trinidad.

Constant rain since Monday morning down here.
Even have a small Caiman in my fish-pond.
Looks like we may get a break for 24 hours then plenty more coming in.
Blog will become SLOW. Florida St. vs Miami....... right now....
This is the official forecast for Eufaula Alabama -

Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 38. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Sunday Night Rain, mainly after midnight. Low around 59. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Rain, mainly before noon. Temperature rising to near 62 by 8am, then falling to around 50 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 44.
Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 23.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 50.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 29.

OK, so Sunday night, the chance of rain is 80%, which really means about 40%, so I'm not expecting much. Monday, however, the Boys in Birmingham go way out on a limb and forecast a 100% chance of rain. I swear, if we don't get some rain out of this storm, I'm driving to Birmingham and wringing someone's neck. Quite the temperature gyrations as well, going from near 70 Sunday with a low of near 60. By Monday, we slide to 50 with 27 overnight. Tuesday we get all the way to 44 and then plunge down to 23. By Wednesday though, we make it back up to 50.

This is in south Alabama, where people come down from up north during the winter because it's warm here. Our average high is 68 with a low of 41. I suspect I'll see a lot of RV's hightailing it south by Wednesday. :-)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Guess it started snowing. .....

no, it didn't, but I did check.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I highly doubt that, to be honest.
Perhaps this article will at least remove the "highly" from your thoughts. :)
Hope the rains stop down in Trinidad. Unusually active of late, and the NE Carib and SW Carib have gotten their share this season as well. The NW Carib not so much, Caymans, Yucatan east and Cuba west seem to be in the dry slot, so far.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Blog will become SLOW. Florida St. vs Miami....... right now....
Alabama pulled it out over Mississippi State so things are good here. Auburn's playing the Georgia Bulldogs, which is a pretty good rivalry down here. That should be a close game, although Auburn is up 7 in the first.

Quoting Skyepony:


I've got to concur... Precipitation across the Pacific isn't reacting like an El Nino either. ESPI is .01 this morning. It has fallen 0.19 this week. Not only is that not the sort of numbers expected for a lasting El Nino it's a big move in the opposite direction for one week.
Hi Skyepony and all,

Can anyone explain ESPI to me? I did a google search and couldn't come up with a reasonable extension of the acronym. Thanks in advance.
DOOM:CON for Winter Storm Albus
1
Quoting rayduray2013:

Perhaps this article will at least remove the "highly" from your thoughts. :)


Read it, still think it's incredibly unlikely and a baseless accusation. It's more likely just people with too much time on their hands that feel the need to post things that only make sense to them.
(bats eyelashes)

hi Cosmic
goodnight all.
Quoting 604. rayduray2013:


Hi Skyepony and all,

Can anyone explain ESPI to me? I did a google search and couldn't come up with a reasonable extension of the acronym. Thanks in advance.



It's the El Niño Southern Oscillation Precipitation index, ESPI for short.


spring weather from new york city to boston now up to 55F ON monday!!
Hi rayduray2013.

All you need to know about what ESPI means is found here.
Quoting rayduray2013:

Hi Skyepony and all,

Can anyone explain ESPI to me? I did a google search and couldn't come up with a reasonable extension of the acronym. Thanks in advance.
Man, you're terrible at using Google. :-) It shows up immediately if you use "ESPI and El Nino". At any rate, it means Monthly ENSO Precipitation Index. As they say here, it says "ESPI is calcuated with precipitation anomalies from two areas in the Pacific Ocean and quantifies the strength of ENSO, in terms of regional rainfall changes." These are the two areas:



You can look at the graphs and see if you think ESPI is actually a very reliable indicator for the onset of an El Nino.

Quoting #584 - hurricanes2018:
Nice graphic. I'm curious where it is from. Got a link? Thx. :)
Look at how fast these enso regions rise just over the last 10 days.


48-Hour Snowfall Forecast
As of Saturday evening, as much as half an inch of snow was reported at the St. Louis Lambert International Airport. Thunder was also reported with the snow.

Further south, lightning was reported along with 0.2 inches of accumulated snow in Catawissa, Missouri.

With that said, snowfall accumulations in most low-elevation areas should remain less than 6 inches.

The best chance of over 6 inches of additional snow would be in parts of the Rockies, a few localized spots in the central Plains, and the mountains of Upstate New York and northern New England.

Atmospheric moisture may be modest in the cold air, resulting in light accumulations. Without strong low pressure forming along the front, deeper moisture may not wrap into the cold air.

That's not to say there wouldn't be significant impacts, however.

It doesn't take much snow to slicken roads, especially in areas less accustomed to frequent snow where fewer roads may be untreated. Even pre-treated roads could refreeze as colder air spills in later in the weekend.
Quoting 602. CosmicEvents:

Hope the rains stop down in Trinidad. Unusually active of late, and the NE Carib and SW Carib have gotten their share this season as well. The NW Carib not so much, Caymans, Yucatan east and Cuba west seem to be in the dry slot, so far.

Yeah, the season started very slowly, with deficits in July, August, September.
2 weeks of incredibly dry conditions before this recent onslaught.
Strange weather, for sure !

Quoting Envoirment:


It's the El Niño Southern Oscillation Precipitation index, ESPI for short.
Thanks. :)

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi rayduray2013.

All you need to know about what ESPI means is found here.
Oh, no. That's way more than I need to know. :)

Meridionally yours, & etc.

Thanks!
Quoting 566. washingtonian115:

If only the timing was right we would have a snowstorm and not a rain storm next week.It will rain on Monday when the high will be 49 and not Tuesday where the temps will be 30-35 degrees for highs.I'm so mad!.Timing timing timing!.why couldn't it time right!.Dammit I lose!..well it's time to go watch a movie with the kids.They have been harassing me all day about it.


There will be other storms. Winter is hardly begun.

At least your kids still like to spend time with you. Two out of three of my teens prefer to be by themselves and the third who does like to be with us is so overextended he winds up gone most of the time to on one volunteer activity or event or competition or practice or .. .. ..
Quoting 607. aquak9:

(bats eyelashes)

hi Cosmic
Hi Aquak:))...you have me blushing.

Quoting sar2401:
Man, you're terrible at using Google. :-) It shows up immediately if you use "ESPI and El Nino". At any rate, it means Monthly ENSO Precipitation Index. As they say here, it says "ESPI is calcuated with precipitation anomalies from two areas in the Pacific Ocean and quantifies the strength of ENSO, in terms of regional rainfall changes." These are the two areas:



You can look at the graphs and see if you think ESPI is actually a very reliable indicator for the onset of an El Nino.
Granted, my effort at Googling ESPI was cursory at best. But that's mostly because I rely on the deep talent pool here at WU. Whoo Hoo!

I got three great answers to my inquiry. Why should I struggle to sort out Google when y'all have my back covered? :)

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Look at how fast these enso regions rise just over the last 10 days.


I'm reminded of the false positive signal we got for El Nino last May. It looked very similar to what you just posted.

When the anchoveta disappear from the nets of the Peruvian fishermen, I'll tend to believe an El Nino is happening.
Some photos of the early winter from the Boston Globe's Big Picture blog.


Miami 23-Florida 10 @the Half...
Cape May Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Record Report
Statement as of 1:39 am EST on November 15, 2014
...Record daily maximum snowfall set at Atlantic City NJ November 14 2014...

A record snowfall of a trace was set at Atlantic City NJ yesterday. This ties the old record of trace set in 2003.


The storm will swing northeastward moving into the central Appalachians, the mid-Atlantic and New England by Monday.
Enough snow could fall on part of the I-64, I-79, I-80, I-81, I-87 and I-90 corridors to make roads slippery during all or part of the storm.
According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "As cold as it is now in the Interstate-95 swath from Washington, D.C., to New York City and Boston, it will warm up and rain with the storm on Monday."

In portions of the central and northern Appalachians, the details are complex with some areas receiving snow on the front end and tail end of the storm.
On the northwest flank of the storm, a narrow band of moderate snow will unfold with totals on the order of 3-6 inches.
Fast movement of the storm will limit the duration of the precipitation, including snow, so that snowfall over 6 inches is unlikely to occur over a broad area.
Many locations that receive part-snow, part-rain should receive a couple of inches or less.
While there is a slight chance the rain ends as a period of snow in the I-95 Northeast corridor, from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, the rain is more likely to end before the cold air sweeps in.
Another arctic front will move across the Great Lakes next week bringing another surge of very cold air. This cold arctic air will pass over the warm waters of the Great Lakes, possibly resulting in significant snowfall over a few days next week.The large temperature difference between the very cold air and the warm lakes may create enough instability so lightning and thunder may even accompany the snow at times.Lake Superior and Lake Michigan will first see the lake-effect snow Sunday into Monday. Snow is expected to fall south of Lake Superior and east of Lake Michigan with several inches of snow piling up.Then more significant snow will develop off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Monday night into Wednesday. Another disturbance will move through on Wednesday, with additional lake-effect snow developing behind the system The flow over the lakes will be persistent which could result in the snow being measured in feet northeast of Cleveland, Ohio, near Erie, Pennsylvania, Buffalo, New York and north of Syracuse, New York.
Research has shown that November storms produce the highest amount of precipitation for lake-effect events. Because the atmosphere overall is warmer in November compared to January, it is able to contain more water vapor which in turn produces more snowfall, according to The Weather Channel winter weather expert, Tom Niziol.
The direction of the wind will determine where exactly the lake-effect snow will set up, and higher snowfall totals will be determined by the direction of the wind that remains the same for the longest period of time. With that said, there will be a change in wind direction with this event due to the disturbance moving through Wednesday into Thursday.
The winds will also be quite strong, particularly on Tuesday, which will create blowing snow. The wind will also make it feel even colder, as the wind chill values will be low.

Quoting 608. 62901IL:

goodnight all.


Here's your winter weather advisory. Happy now?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 412 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>008-0 10-011-013>016- 018>020-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-160400- /O.NEW.KPAH.WW.Y.0012.141117T0000Z-141117T1200Z/ JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY- VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MC CRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CRITTENDEN-LYON-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER- HOPKINS-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER- CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT- MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEE TOWN... JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CA IRO... MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE... EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLIN TON... BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHL AND...BENTON... MARION...EDDYVILLE...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIX ON... MADISONVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...P ERRYVILLE... MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN... POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID 412 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY. * A LIGHT MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SLEET OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE QUICKER THE SLEET GOES OVER TO SNOW...THE HIGHER THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AROUND MID EVENING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE AT NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. * IT NOW APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE ADVISORY REGION. AMOUNTS MAY BE TAPERED IN AREAS THAT HAVE A LATER TRANSITION FROM RAIN AND SLEET OR TO SNOW. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. * WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME QUITE SLICK. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL FREEZE BEFORE UNELEVATED ROADS. IN ADDITION...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE HAZARDOUS COME MORNING RUSH HOUR...AND WHEN CHILDREN RETURN TO SCHOOL ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
Interesting storm report.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 627 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0618 PM SNOW IMPERIAL 38.37N 90.38W 11/15/2014 E0.0 INCH JEFFERSON MO TRAINED SPOTTER THUNDER HEARD...SNOWING PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW.
East Haven, CT at 10:32 PM EST on November 15, 2014
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
Clear 25.9 °F my house its cold outside
This will warm some of you up...
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:40 PM PST on November 15, 2014
Overcast
60.4 °F / 15.8 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 85%
Dew Point: 56 °F / 13 °C
Wind: 2.0 mph / 3.2 km/h / 0.9 m/s from the NNW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph / 12.9 km/h
Pressure: 30.00 in / 1016 hPa (Rising)
High Today was 70.5... You out there Dakster??
Quoting PedleyCA:
Miami 23-Florida 10 @the Half...
Auburn got creamed by Georgia 34-7...
Quoting 635. sar2401:

Auburn got creamed by Georgia 34-7...


Miami 26- Florida St. 23
38 comments in 3 hours...
Quoting rayduray2013:

Granted, my effort at Googling ESPI was cursory at best. But that's mostly because I rely on the deep talent pool here at WU. Whoo Hoo!

I got three great answers to my inquiry. Why should I struggle to sort out Google when y'all have my back covered? :)
That's true. We should have a Designated Googler of the Day here. Anytime someone needs an answer, it will be his or her job to hunt it down on Google. If the Designated Googler couldn't find it, the Alternate Googler would get a chance. I guess we'd need shifts also, since we're a 27/7 operation, plus another crew to maintain the schedule...hey, maybe we could get some kind of grant! If we only posted anti-AGW stuff, I'll betcha we could get on the Koch Brothers payroll, and they probably pay better than those science places. I have no scruples whatsoever when it comes to picking up some spare change to supplement my measly Social Security check, so I'll volunteer... :-)
Quoting PedleyCA:


Miami 26- Florida St. 23
38 comments in 3 hours...
Well, I guess they weren't all watching the Auburn game then. That's what happens when a state with only a few hurricanes plays a state with no hurricanes...just no interest at all. We don't have to worry about seeing Auburn in a championship game this year. At this rate, they'll be lucky to get in the Alpo Dog Food Bowl...
Quoting 607. aquak9:

(bats eyelashes)

hi Cosmic
Stop that. I saw him first!... moving west ;)

And... to all and everything, and everyone,
In case you have not heard, those in the know don't Google. They DuckDuck.
:)
Quoting 637. sar2401:

That's true. We should have a Designated Googler of the Day here. Anytime someone needs an answer, it will be his or her job to hunt it down on Google. If the Designated Googler couldn't find it, the Alternate Googler would get a chance. I guess we'd need shifts also, since we're a 27/7 operation, plus another crew to maintain the schedule...hey, maybe we could get some kind of grant! If we only posted anti-AGW stuff, I'll betcha we could get on the Koch Brothers payroll, and they probably pay better than those science places. I have no scruples whatsoever when it comes to picking up some spare change to supplement my measly Social Security check, so I'll volunteer... :-)


Since when are there 27 hours in a day? :p
Quoting 639. Barefootontherocks:

Stop that. I saw him first!... moving west ;)

And... to all and everything, and everyone,
In case you have not heard, those in the know don't Google. They DuckDuck.
:)


DuckDuck.... Goose! XP
Florida St. 30 - Miami 26
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Since when are there 27 hours in a day? :p
I just got confused because today was Leap Day. I suppose you didn't hear about that either. I Googled it.
Quoting 641. TimTheWxMan:



DuckDuck.... Goose! XP
DuckDuckGo!

XP is also passe.
:)

Quoting sar2401:
That's true. We should have a Designated Googler of the Day here. Anytime someone needs an answer, it will be his or her job to hunt it down on Google. If the Designated Googler couldn't find it, the Alternate Googler would get a chance. I guess we'd need shifts also, since we're a 27/7 operation, plus another crew to maintain the schedule...hey, maybe we could get some kind of grant! If we only posted anti-AGW stuff, I'll betcha we could get on the Koch Brothers payroll, and they probably pay better than those science places. I have no scruples whatsoever when it comes to picking up some spare change to supplement my measly Social Security check, so I'll volunteer... :-)
Well, after all, if the Naked Capitalism blog can have its 2 PM Water Cooler, i.e. Bubbler feature, why can't we have a WU 24/7 Googler feature? :)

Let the competition begin!

Who can explain the longevity and consistency of the Relampago del Catatumbo?



Nuclear Event in USA on Sunday, 16 November, 2014 at 04:47 (04:47 AM) UTC.
Description
A recent inspection by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission turned up a low-level violation at the PPL Susquehanna Steam nuclear plant in Salem Township. The violation, which had to do with power generation and was not a significant safety risk, has been corrected, PPL spokesman Joe Scopelliti. "That's our standard. If they find a violation, we're going to address it, find out what caused it and then do the fix," he said. An inspection on Sept. 30 disclosed the improper calibration of a temperature switch on a reactor recirculation pump motor at the Unit 1 reactor. The alarm and shutdown setpoints on the switch were reversed, NRC spokesman Neil Sheehan said in an email. "This resulted in the reactor's recirculation pump tripping on May 7, causing rapid unplanned reduction in reactor power," he said. "We determined that a 'Green' (very low safety significance) finding was appropriate in this case because the issue did not cause a reactor shutdown or the loss of any reactor safety systems." Sheehan said the pump is used to recirculate water through the reactor and does not have a cooling function. "That said, it does have an impact on nuclear safety as its shutdown resulted in an unplanned reactor downpower," he said. "A reactor downpower presents an unnecessary challenge for control room operators." PPL took action by correcting the calibration error, starting the pump, and restoring normal flow to the reactor vessel, according to the NRC report. The NRC will follow up on the company's actions during upcoming inspections to ensure the issue has been appropriately addressed, Sheehan said. The NRC is also gathering more information on a situation that arose from an emergency exercise that took place at the plant on July 24. "The issue involves multiple instances during which plant emergency response organization members reached different conclusions about the status of a radioactive release when presented with the same set of plant conditions and indications," Sheehan said. NRC has not yet decided whether the issue warrants enforcement action, he said.
Tsunami in Indonesia on Saturday, 15 November, 2014 at 20:11 (08:11 PM) UTC.
Description
A small tsunami hit several regions in eastern Indonesia on Saturday afternoon, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) said. "A low tsunami hit Jailolo [West Halmahera regency, North Maluku] at 9:43 a.m. local time [8:43 a.m. Jakarta time] at a height of 0.09 meters. While in Manado [North Sulawesi] the tsunami occurred at 9:55 a.m. local time, at 0.03 meters," BNPB chief spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho was reported as saying by Antara news agency. Sutopo added that the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) revoked the early tsunami warning it had issued after a 7.3-magnitude earthquake occurred at 9:31 a.m. local time on Saturday. "We received information on the revocation of the early warning at 12:45 p.m. local time," he noted. The North Maluku Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPD) is still recording the impact of the earthquake in the region. "The tsunami was not seen on the beach and the situation among local people is still normal. After the warning was recalled, people went back to their everyday activities," Sutopo affirmed. The epicenter of the quake that rocked northern Sulawesi and Maluku provinces was located in the sea at a depth of 48 kilometers, with a latitude of 1.95 degrees north and longitude of 126.46 degrees east. (nvn)
Thought Sar was our site Googler. He has an answer for everything and generally an opinion to go along with it. I know he's old, really old; just amazed that he has an opinion about everything and then a follow up in detail about said subject. I love knowledge and seek to learn more about every topic under the sun here. Sar while your smug to some here, I appreciate that you have a life long love of seeking and share it here. Your one smart guy. Like in a movie, a good character grows and changes throughout the movie; I've seen your opinions change on certain subjects based on what you've learned and researched. I respect you.
Shot you a message Sar, you have been one of the few that has kept this blog blogging over this dead hurricane season. Next year may be a long season of wait too. El-Nino is little understood; you made that point and it's so true. This is some hybrid version and we'll see likely many more like it with a warming world. Lot to discuss and few who care to discuss it .

Quoting Skyepony:
Tsunami in Indonesia on Saturday, 15 November, 2014 at 20:11 (08:11 PM) UTC.

...  "A low tsunami hit Jailolo [West Halmahera regency, North Maluku] at 9:43 a.m. local time [8:43 a.m. Jakarta time] at a height of 0.09 meters.
I was immediately reminded of the great Boxing Day Earthquake & Tsunami of 2004 when reading about this recent quake. The differences are significant. The 2004 earthquake measured 9.0 on the Richter scale.

"Scientists investigating the damage in Aceh found evidence that the wave
reached a height of 24 metres (80 ft) when coming ashore along large
stretches of the (Sumatran) coastline, rising to 30 metres (100 ft) in some areas
when traveling inland
.[8]"

Now that's a big wave.
Just checked out that duckduck.
That's one smart duck over there.
He knows his stough or can find info about it better than most ducks.
Quoting 652. rayduray2013:


I was immediately reminded of the great Boxing Day Earthquake & Tsunami of 2004 when reading about this recent quake. The differences are significant. The 2004 earthquake measured 9.0 on the Richter scale.

"Scientists investigating the damage in Aceh found evidence that the wave
reached a height of 24 metres (80 ft) when coming ashore along large
stretches of the (Sumatran) coastline, rising to 30 metres (100 ft) in some areas
when traveling inland
.[8]"

Now that's a big wave.



Gives on pause, the killer tsunami that killed a quarter million; so many ran out after the receding ocean in wonder only to be swallowed by the beast. Imagine kids running out to collect shells and tens of thousands not knowing they were about to be drowned; gives one pause. We all live in a fragile day to day existence and most have no clue that tomorrow may not exist. May we not take it for granted.
Quoting 651. DeepSeaRising:

This is some hybrid version and we'll see likely many more like it with a warming world. Lot to discuss and few who care to discuss it .


It's more like... as of right now, it's rather meaningless to discuss it. For the most part, we have no strong evidence in which direction global warming is pushing the planet.
Quoting 655. KoritheMan:



It's more like... as of right now, it's rather meaningless to discuss it. For the most part, we have no strong evidence in which direction global warming is pushing the planet.


Oh no you didn't! We know we had a record year for Earth's warming, we know it's getting pushed to deep seas, we know water reserves are evaporating, we know that we don't know. So yeah Kori, it's a whole new game and the results of said game are an absolute unknown. Only God knows at this point but we have tidbits of where this is headed and we are underestimating it in grave terms. Politics of misinformation drive us but the truth can never be defied. So decided on your future yet?
Quoting 656. DeepSeaRising:



Oh no you didn't! We know we had a record year for Earth's warming, we know it's getting pushed to deep seas, we know water reserves are evaporating, we know that we don't know. So yeah Kori, it's a whole new game and the results of said game are an absolute unknown. Only God knows at this point but we have tidbits of where this is headed and we are underestimating it in grave terms. Politics of misinformation drive us but the truth can never be defied. So decided on your future yet?


Dude... I told you like two months ago I was getting my GED in January. :P
Quoting 657. KoritheMan:



Dude... I told you like two months ago I was getting my GED in January. :P


GED, yeah Kori that's a great start! I have my GED now managing in some said global bs company. Do what you love, go further and do something your passionate about. You have the tools, now apply them and be happy. I'm rooting for you.
Basically same forecast for me, except delay for 18-24 hours. Look at those crazy temps. If this dynamic pattern sticks around through the winter, there will be trouble. Ice storms, severe weather, blizzards. We would get it all.

Winter 1997-98 very warm Ny/NJ. Also the winter of the terrible January ice storm Maine, NH, VT.


Quoting 599. sar2401:

This is the official forecast for Eufaula Alabama -

Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 38. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Sunday Night Rain, mainly after midnight. Low around 59. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Monday Rain, mainly before noon. Temperature rising to near 62 by 8am, then falling to around 50 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 44.
Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 23.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 50.
Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 29.

OK, so Sunday night, the chance of rain is 80%, which really means about 40%, so I'm not expecting much. Monday, however, the Boys in Birmingham go way out on a limb and forecast a 100% chance of rain. I swear, if we don't get some rain out of this storm, I'm driving to Birmingham and wringing someone's neck. Quite the temperature gyrations as well, going from near 70 Sunday with a low of near 60. By Monday, we slide to 50 with 27 overnight. Tuesday we get all the way to 44 and then plunge down to 23. By Wednesday though, we make it back up to 50.

This is in south Alabama, where people come down from up north during the winter because it's warm here. Our average high is 68 with a low of 41. I suspect I'll see a lot of RV's hightailing it south by Wednesday. :-)
Some of the YouTube video is unbelievable. Most is heartbreaking. Mother Nature calls the shots. We are just along for the ride.


Quoting 652. rayduray2013:


I was immediately reminded of the great Boxing Day Earthquake & Tsunami of 2004 when reading about this recent quake. The differences are significant. The 2004 earthquake measured 9.0 on the Richter scale.

"Scientists investigating the damage in Aceh found evidence that the wave
reached a height of 24 metres (80 ft) when coming ashore along large
stretches of the (Sumatran) coastline, rising to 30 metres (100 ft) in some areas
when traveling inland
.[8]"

Now that's a big wave.

Currently, Winter Storm Albus is loscated in Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma.
gfs tries to spin up something just west of costa rica
dont know what it is but i cant remember any winter storm names from last yr.
Quoting 291. rayduray2013:


Hi Hydrus,

Like you, I keep an eye on thermohaline circulation. The science seems quite uncertain to me. Here's the best summary I've come up with with a quick Google search.

Generally, recent tidbits I've gotten indicate that uncertainty about the future of the Gulf Stream have more to do with a lack of understanding on our part about natural variance than to do with a catastrophic change in the circulation which is not in evidence.

As I reviewed the topic, the name Dr. Peter Wadhams came up as as someone who raised the alarm about "chimneys" not in evidence where Gulf Stream water usually sinks off the east coast of Greenland. His claim was an alarming absence of these chimneys (see Wikipedia entry above for more detail). Lately, Wadhams has presented alarming news about methane seeps in the ESAS. I'm detectng a pattern of exciteability on the part of Dr. Wadhams.

Countering Dr. Wadhams have been Drs. Kevin Trenberth (NCAR) and Gavin Schmidt (the new head of NASA's GISS) who are finding much less to get alarmed about. It's an interesting discussion.



The oceans have a monumental impact on everything. The science and data still coming in on this, and debates will go on, but suffice it to say, something major changes with ocean current and temps, it will certainly have an impact..


I was impressed with the slowing here..and this is 12 year old data.?



The red end of the spectrum indicates slowing in this presentation of the trend of velocities derived from NASA Pathfinder altimeter data from May 1992 to June 2002. Source: NASA.
Winter Storm Bozeman
A band of snow will move through Oklahoma to far northwest Arkansas and southeast Missouri Sunday. This snow will generally fall into the 1 to 3 inch range. On Sunday night the system will add more moisture and a band of snow will then extend northeastward from Kentucky to western New York by Monday morning. Current forecast for Louisville, Kentucky is 1-3 inches but the Cincinnati, Ohio area is in the 3-5 inch range. More snow in Cincinnati, Ohio will fall from after midnight to mid morning and it will then end quickly. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania will see rain/snow change to snow and Buffalo, New York will see a bit of snow, as well. The snow then makes it to northern New England where several inches may fall (especially in the mountains of Maine). Gulf Coast/Southeast cities and East Coast cities will receive rain from this event.
Today's Forecast:



Tomorrow's Forecast

Eastcoast snow the day before Thanksgiving.




7:56 AM EST on November 16, 2014
Significant Lake-Effect Snow Event
Some extremely cold air (for November) rushes in behind Bozeman and passes over the warmer Great Lakes. The result will be significant lake-effect snow over a significant time period. Snow will fall south of Lake Superior and east of Lake Michigan Sunday/Monday. Several inches of snow is a likely result. A much more significant lake-effect snow event is in store for the eastern Great Lakes (Erie and Ontario Monday night/Wednesday period), then more snow from an upper disturbance Wednesday followed by more lake-effect snow. The main wind flow should be either side of due west. Areas vulnerable for heavy snow will include east and northeast of Cleveland, Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania (Erie area) and just south of Buffalo, New York (I-90 to ski country and north of Syracuse, New York (Oswego/Tug Hills). Temperature differential between the air mass (5 degrees at 850 millibars) and the lakes (50 degrees) will create great instability so lightning and thunder will likely accompany the snow at times. The flow over the lakes will be persistent (before being interrupted on Wednesday). Situations like this one have been known to produce feet of snow! Specific forecast will be refined over time.

Quoting 667. Sfloridacat5:

Eastcoast snow the day before Thanksgiving.



(Looks on points over and laughs).First the models went mild before Thanksgiving now cold and snowy.Lol.I don't know what's more entertaining movies from Hollywood or the forecast models.
Quoting 655. KoritheMan:



It's more like... as of right now, it's rather meaningless to discuss it. For the most part, we have no strong evidence in which direction global warming is pushing the planet.
It would take a while to get there, but I would say something as recent as the Eocene Optimum would be a good example. Good times they were indeed! Imagine roasting a tiny horse in the campfire, and an ice free Antarctica! If you selected real estate above 200 ft. present sea levels you could still live in Florida.
Quoting 646. rayduray2013:


Well, after all, if the Naked Capitalism blog can have its 2 PM Water Cooler, i.e. Bubbler feature, why can't we have a WU 24/7 Googler feature? :)

Let the competition begin!

Who can explain the longevity and consistency of the Relampago del Catatumbo?




The topography and unusual shape of the lake and coast line play a part.


The Catatumbo lightning occurs over and around Lake Maracaibo

Excerpt-


The storms (and associated lightning) are likely the result of the winds blowing across the Maracaibo Lake and surrounding swampy plains. These air masses inevitably meet the high mountain ridges of the Andes, the Perij Mountains (3,750 m), and Mrida's Cordillera, enclosing the plain from three sides. The heat and moisture collected across the plains creates electrical charges and, as the air masses are destabilized at the mountain ridges, result in almost continual thunderstorm activity. The phenomenon is characterized by almost continuous lightning, mostly within the clouds, which is produced in a large vertical development of clouds that form large electric arcs between 2 and 10 km in height (or more). The lightning tends to start approximately one hour after dusk.
Quoting capeflorida:
Today's Forecast:



Tomorrow's Forecast


YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!
We'll see if the other models jump on. That would be quite the event the day before Thanksgiving. Most could kiss their travel plans goodbye. The airline delays would affect the entire eastern half of the country.

We have an important appt at Duke medical that day so I now give this a 99% chance of verifying. Lol.


Quoting 667. Sfloridacat5:

Eastcoast snow the day before Thanksgiving.



We'll see if the other models jump on. That would be quite the event the day before Thanksgiving. Most could kiss their travel plans goodbye. The airline delays would affect the entire eastern half of the country.

We have an important appt at Duke medical that day so I now give this a 99% chance of verifying. Lol.


Quoting 667. Sfloridacat5:

Eastcoast snow the day before Thanksgiving.



That 3 foot of snow swath is inerestin...

Quoting 677. HaoleboySurfEC:

We'll see if the other models jump on. That would be quite the event the day before Thanksgiving. Most could kiss their travel plans goodbye. The airline delays would affect the entire eastern half of the country.

We have an important appt at Duke medical that day so I now give this a 99% chance of verifying. Lol.



It does look like a lot of slop....I dont mind , just as long there is enough homemade mashed potatoes.......I would be cross indeed...:)
shershkyverd....
TWO winter weather advisories for ONE forecasting area!!!!!!

Advisory 1: Hopkinsville and surrounding areas.

.EXA.KPAH.WW.Y.0012.141117T0000Z-141117T1200Z/
CALLOWAY-TRIGG-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURRAY...CADIZ...HOPKINSVILLE...
GREENVILLE...ELKTON
338 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIKELY BY THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. ANY RAIN AT ONSET LATE TODAY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST KENTUCKY...MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET IS EXPECTED TO START LATE TODAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...INCLUDING SOME SLEET...FROM
1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE
REGION...WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. FROM THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA EAST
INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AMOUNTS MAY BE A
BIT LOWER. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THIS AREA.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS
MONDAY.

Advisory 2: Rest of forecasting area


INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNE ETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...C AIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLI NTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITH LAND...BENTON...
MARION...EDDYVILLE...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DI XON...
MADISONVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN... PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...
POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
338 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LIKELY BY THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. ANY RAIN AT ONSET LATE TODAY SHOULD
TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST KENTUCKY...MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET IS EXPECTED TO START LATE TODAY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...INCLUDING SOME SLEET...FROM
1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE
REGION...WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. FROM THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA EAST
INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AMOUNTS MAY BE A
BIT LOWER. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THIS AREA.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS
MONDAY.



681. 62901IL
2:47 PM GMT on November 16, 2014

TWO winter weather advisories for ONE forecasting area!!!!!!


i to 3 inches...OMHG..!!!!!
Quoting hydrus:
That 3 foot of snow swath is inerestin...



BEHOLD. I AM SMILING.
:) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)
Quoting hydrus:

681. 62901IL
2:47 PM GMT on November 16, 2014

TWO winter weather advisories for ONE forecasting area!!!!!!


i to 3 inches...OMHG..!!!!!

YEAH!!!
What does the H mean on OMHG?
Neat little piece about the Catatumbo Lightening Phenomenon..

The first written mention of the Catatumbo lightning was in the epic poem "La Dragontea" in 1597 by Lope de Vega, which recounts the defeat of English raider Sir Francis Drake. The Prussian naturalist and explorer Alexander von Humboldt once described it as "electrical explosions that are like phosphorescent gleam." Italian geographer Agustin Codazzi described it as a "lightning that seems to arise from the continued Zulia river and its surroundings." The phenomenon became so celebrated that it was depicted in the flag and coat of arms of the state of Zulia, which contains Lake Maracaibo, and mentioned in the state's anthem. This phenomenon has been popularly known for centuries as the Lighthouse of Maracaibo, since it is visible for miles around Lake Maracaibo.



Between 1997 and 2000 Nelson Falcón conducted several studies, and produced the first microphysics model of the Catatumbo Lightning. He identified the methane produced by the swamps and the oil deposits in the area as a major cause of the phenomenon. It has been noted to have little effect on local flora such as ferns, despite concerns.
Quoting 685. 62901IL:


YEAH!!!
What does the H mean on OMHG?
Holy.
Congratulations, Winter Storm Albus!!! You're now producing heavy snow!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
839 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

KSZ069-082-083-092-161515-
SEDGWICK-KINGMAN-SUMNER-BUTLER-
839 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SEDGWICK...KINGMAN...
SUMNER...AND BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 835 AM CST...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO TO NEAR KINGMAN...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WICHITA...DERBY...EL DORADO...ANDOVER...HAYSVILLE...AUGUSTA...PARK
CITY...BEL AIRE...GODDARD...ROSE HILL...CLEARWATER...CHENEY...
TOWANDA...BENTON...GARDEN PLAIN...LEON...DOWNTOWN WICHITA...KECHI...
EASTBOROUGH AND NORWICH.

VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE IN THIS AREA
OF HEAVY SNOW. THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 15 TO 30 MINUTES
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME WHEN TRAVELING.

LAT...LON 3766 9654 3741 9791 3761 9818 3793 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 284DEG 22KT 3791 9675 3762 9804
$$

DARMOFAL
Quoting hydrus:
Holy.


Oh My Holy God!! I shoulda gussed!
Oh...I almost forgot-Here is the theme song for Winter Storm Albus.
Superman Batman Apocalypse theme
Quoting 685. 62901IL:


YEAH!!!
What does the H mean on OMHG?


Heavenly maybe? Or maybe he/she pictures god as a happy god. Personally I prefer to think of my god wearing a tuxedo t-shirt because he's formal but still down to party.

Beautiful morning, looks to be a nice few days until Wednesday, breezy with thunderstorms.
Astro: Astrometeor
Bozeman: City in Montana
Cato: Dunno
Damon: Dunno
Eris: Greek god or titan
Frona: Dunno
Gogron: Greek or fatasy monster
Hektor: Weird spelling of Hector
Iona: Dunno
Juno: Roman name for Hera
Kari: Dunno
Linus: Peanuts
Marcus: Common name
Neptune: Planet in solar system
Octavia: Some roman girl.
Pandora: A radio station
Quantum: Quantum physics
Remus: Remus Lupin
Sparta: THIS...IS...SPARTA!!!!!!!!!!!
Thor: Thunder god or something.
Ultima: Dunno
Venus: Planet in solar system
Wolf: Animal related to dog.
Xander: Uncommon name.
Yuli: Dunno
Zelus: Dunno.
Quoting 693. win1gamegiantsplease:



Heavenly maybe? Or maybe he/she pictures god as a happy god. Personally I prefer to think of my god wearing a tuxedo t-shirt because he's formal but still down to party.

Beautiful morning, looks to be a nice few days until Wednesday, breezy with thunderstorms.
God is good like that.....God actually wears atoms ( All of them ) and the particles that make them so.
Expect gradual cooling across Alaska over the next couple weeks.
By the end of the month Alaska will be in the middle of a major freeze with temperatures well below zero across the majority of the state.
Quoting 697. Sfloridacat5:

Expect gradual cooling across Alaska over the next couple weeks.
By the end of the month Alaska will be in the middle of a major freeze with temperatures well below zero across the majority of the state.

Good morning all!

The first decent snow event of the season for my area is expected tonight into Monday morning! I'm expecting anywhere from 3-6 inches. Not bad for November! :-)

Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning all!

The first decent snow event of the season for my area is expected tonight into Monday morning! I'm expecting anywhere from 3-6 inches. Not bad for November! :-)


I'm expecting 1-3 inches of snow. So, it looks like Winter Storm Albus will affect you too!!!!


Warmest oceans ever recorded


Source:
University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST
Summary:
This summer has seen the highest global mean sea surface temperatures ever recorded. Temperatures even exceed those of the record-breaking 1998 El Nino year.

Link
Quoting 667. Sfloridacat5:

Eastcoast snow the day before Thanksgiving.




There continue to be signals for a potential storm in that time frame, but if it happens, it's probably not gonna look like that. It'll look more like this:



The East Coast should see a significant warm-up in about a week, with this storm possibly coming through to break it. It'd be a soaker with heavy rain and thunderstorms possible up and down the coast. The ECMWF is in pretty good agreement with that too. Would definitely not make Thanksgiving travel any easier.
update: Nothing yet, but Albus is already in the middle of the $pringfield (Springfield) forecasting area.
Quite the blast of arctic air for the Southeastern US around Thanksgiving.

00z ECMWF 850 mbar anomalies @ 10 days out.

Good morning to all.... gorgeous day here ...

82 °F
Feels Like 88 °F
Wind from ESE @ 14
Today is forecast to be nearly the same temperature as yesterday.

707. DDR
Good afternoon
No let up in rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago,gfs shows the rains continuing for at least 5 days.
Warming up fast today across S.W. Florida.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1106 am EST sun Nov 16 2014

Near term [through today]...

Just a few very minor updates this morning, as the low cloudiness
is gradually burning off across the region. This should lead to a
partly cloudy and milder day this afternoon with temps climbing up
into the upper 60s well to the north to the lower to middle 70s
elsewhere across the tri-state area.

&&

Prev discussion [611 am est]...

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...
for tonight and Monday, not much has changed from the previous
thinking. The main question will be the recovery of the low level
airmass from its current cool and rather dry state as both low
level and deep layer shear looks like they will be sufficient to
support severe weather.
In terms of instability, guidance agrees
that will be a narrow band of surface-based instability near the
Gulf Coast Monday morning with dewpoints recovering to the mid
60s. The cam ensemble responds with SBCAPE values near 1000 j/kg
along the coast with lesser values farther inland. With 0-1 km
shear near 30 knots and 0-6 km shear near 50 knots expected, some
severe weather is possible, including the potential for an
isolated tornado or two.
Storm Prediction Center has outlooked most of the area for a
slight risk of severe storms for Monday. As the front moves
through the area during the day, temperatures will be falling
during the afternoon behind it with gusty northwest winds. As an
example, the Dothan area is expected to start Monday morning in
the lower 60s and end the day in the upper 40s.

For Monday night and Tuesday, a much colder airmass will continue
to advect into the area behind the front.
With strong cold
advection occurring, the official forecast used more of a raw
model blend instead of MOS, although MOS was not overly different
in this case. A light freeze is a distinct possibility across
portions of the area Monday night followed by a very cold day on
Tuesday relative to average with highs struggling to even reach
50.
The northern portions of the forecast area may stay in the mid
to upper 40s.




Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
a very cold and dry airmass will be in place at the start of the
period with a widespread freeze likely on Tuesday night and again
on Wednesday night. In fact, hard freeze conditions (locally
defined as below 26 degrees for at least 2 hours) are looking more
likely for Tuesday night across a large part of the area with
center of the surface high pressure in a favorable area.
These
temperatures are around 20 to 25 degrees below average for this
time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the end of the
week.

By next Sunday, the 00z GFS, Euro, and Canadian all have a rather
strong system developing west of the area which could bring
another round of storms just beyond the day 7 period into early next week.
Quoting 695. 62901IL:

Astro: Astrometeor
Bozeman: City in Montana
Cato: Dunno
Damon: Dunno
Eris: Greek god or titan
Frona: Dunno
Gogron: Greek or fatasy monster
Hektor: Weird spelling of Hector
Iona: Dunno
Juno: Roman name for Hera
Kari: Dunno
Linus: Peanuts
Marcus: Common name
Neptune: Planet in solar system
Octavia: Some roman girl.
Pandora: A radio station
Quantum: Quantum physics
Remus: Remus Lupin
Sparta: THIS...IS...SPARTA!!!!!!!!!!!
Thor: Thunder god or something.
Ultima: Dunno
Venus: Planet in solar system
Wolf: Animal related to dog.
Xander: Uncommon name.
Yuli: Dunno
Zelus: Dunno.


I really hope your interpretation of these names is a joke...
Quoting 707. DDR:

Good afternoon
No let up in rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago,gfs shows the rains continuing for at least 5 days.
A game of extremes down there... seems it's either no rain for months or rain for weeks at a time .... :o/ .... hope the flooding doesn't take out too many buildings / homes etc....
Quoting Stormlover16:


I really hope your interpretation of these names is a joke...

it most certainly is a joke!
Cy-clo-genesis





My town made the news yesterday:



(ABC News link)


A town over in the next county made the news earlier in the week:



(Duluth News Tribune link)


Final snow total map created by the NWS from our Veteran's Day snowstorm that was followed by heavy lake-effect snow. Another foot of lake-effect snow is expected on Monday and Tuesday in the snowbelt.



More snowfall pictures are at the NWS storm summary page (NWS Duluth link).

717. DDR
Quoting BahaHurican:
A game of extremes down there... seems it's either no rain for months or rain for weeks at a time .... :o/ .... hope the flooding doesn't take out too many buildings / homes etc....

Thanks for your concern baha,the problem(s) is well what youd expect in a third world country,poor drainage networks,people building on natural flood plains,slow run-off is being worsened by persistant rainfall on the plains though.Rainfall has been in average most areas(except the airport) or even above average,even though there were fewer rain days.



snow and more snow and let it snow
Quoting 709. opal92nwf:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1106 am EST sun Nov 16 2014

Near term [through today]...

Just a few very minor updates this morning, as the low cloudiness
is gradually burning off across the region. This should lead to a
partly cloudy and milder day this afternoon with temps climbing up
into the upper 60s well to the north to the lower to middle 70s
elsewhere across the tri-state area.

&&

Prev discussion [611 am est]...

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...
for tonight and Monday, not much has changed from the previous
thinking. The main question will be the recovery of the low level
airmass from its current cool and rather dry state as both low
level and deep layer shear looks like they will be sufficient to
support severe weather.
In terms of instability, guidance agrees
that will be a narrow band of surface-based instability near the
Gulf Coast Monday morning with dewpoints recovering to the mid
60s. The cam ensemble responds with SBCAPE values near 1000 j/kg
along the coast with lesser values farther inland. With 0-1 km
shear near 30 knots and 0-6 km shear near 50 knots expected, some
severe weather is possible, including the potential for an
isolated tornado or two.
Storm Prediction Center has outlooked most of the area for a
slight risk of severe storms for Monday. As the front moves
through the area during the day, temperatures will be falling
during the afternoon behind it with gusty northwest winds. As an
example, the Dothan area is expected to start Monday morning in
the lower 60s and end the day in the upper 40s.

For Monday night and Tuesday, a much colder airmass will continue
to advect into the area behind the front.
With strong cold
advection occurring, the official forecast used more of a raw
model blend instead of MOS, although MOS was not overly different
in this case. A light freeze is a distinct possibility across
portions of the area Monday night followed by a very cold day on
Tuesday relative to average with highs struggling to even reach
50.
The northern portions of the forecast area may stay in the mid
to upper 40s.




Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...
a very cold and dry airmass will be in place at the start of the
period with a widespread freeze likely on Tuesday night and again
on Wednesday night. In fact, hard freeze conditions (locally
defined as below 26 degrees for at least 2 hours) are looking more
likely for Tuesday night across a large part of the area with
center of the surface high pressure in a favorable area.
These
temperatures are around 20 to 25 degrees below average for this
time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the end of the
week.

By next Sunday, the 00z GFS, Euro, and Canadian all have a rather
strong system developing west of the area which could bring
another round of storms just beyond the day 7 period into early next week.





Here's the NWS forecast for Tallahassee Tuesday:


Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 48. North northwest wind around 15 mph.

Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22.




It's hard to believe this is a real forecast, 22 for a low and 40's for highs is unreal for this time of of year! The forecast low is at least a few degrees below record lows, absolutely nuts.

SLEET! SNOW! RAIN! OH MY!!!!
721. DDR
Most of he rain has been on the east coast though,not much in heavily populated north western areas thankfully.
Rig for Storm.

Heave Ho and drop the Main sail..

secure the Rum,

set the Watch on the Rum.




I'm thinking 3-5 now areawide. Who's with me?
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 916 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW... ILZ064-065-069-070-074-079-100>102-MOZ074-075-084- 085-099-170300- /O.CON.KLSX.WW.Y.0011.141116T1800Z-141117T0300Z/ BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-IRON MO-MADISON IL-MADISON MO- MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CLAIR IL- ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON IL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVILLE...CHESTER...EDWARDSVILLE... FARMINGTON...SALEM...VANDALIA 916 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MIDDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. * WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES... OVERPASSES...AND UNTREATED ROADS. PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS WELL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ROADS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME SLIPPERY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN FOR A SLOWER THAN NORMAL TRIP. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT WHEN APPROACHING BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND CURVES. &&
no snow\sleet\rain for Carbondale yet, but it's coming........................
Quoting 725. 62901IL:

I'm thinking 3-5 now areawide. Who's with me?


Probably 1-3.

Link
Quoting 728. 62901IL:

no snow\sleet\rain for Carbondale yet, but it's coming........................


Only flurries in St. Louis so far. It seems like the snow is getting a bit lighter.
The JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for 95S:



Quoting Jedkins01:




Here's the NWS forecast for Tallahassee Tuesday:


Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 48. North northwest wind around 15 mph.

Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22.




It's hard to believe this is a real forecast, 22 for a low and 40's for highs is unreal for this time of of year! The forecast low is at least a few degrees below record lows, absolutely nuts.
The lowest November temperature ever measured in Tallahassee was 13 (11/25/1970), one of only two times the city has ever reached the teens before December (the other was in 1950); that record, thankfully, doesn't appear to be in jeopardy this coming week. But the record low for the 19th--that is, Wednesday morning--is 25; given the forecast, it seems a sure bet that that one will be crushed.

FWIW, this week's record lows for Tally--Monday: 24; Tuesday: 27; Wednesday: 25; Thursday: 26; Friday: 24.
12Z GFS has backed off the chance of snow on Wednesday before Thanksgiving for the Eastcoast.
Temperatures will just be too warm.
Absolutely wonderful day here in south Florida.... The Minnesota vs Ohio State game made me cringe...Do not miss that at all...
Quoting 732. Neapolitan:

The lowest November temperature ever measured in Tallahassee was 13 (11/25/1970), one of only two times the city has ever reached the teens before December (the other was in 1950); that record, thankfully, doesn't appear to be in jeopardy this coming week. But the record low for the 19th--that is, Wednesday morning--is 25; given the forecast, it seems a sure bet that that one will be crushed.

FWIW, this week's record lows for Tally--Monday: 24; Tuesday: 27; Wednesday: 25; Thursday: 26; Friday: 24.


Usually, during cold events, Orlando is around 10F warmer than Tallahassee. With this event, we are supposed to be 19F warmer, at 41F. This should be no record breaker for the third week in November here. Kind of like the record cold in the Panhandle this past winter (for duration of cold if not absolute lows at least) did not mean anything remotely close to record cold here.
Quoting 732. Neapolitan:

The lowest November temperature ever measured in Tallahassee was 13 (11/25/1970), one of only two times the city has ever reached the teens before December (the other was in 1950); that record, thankfully, doesn't appear to be in jeopardy this coming week. But the record low for the 19th--that is, Wednesday morning--is 25; given the forecast, it seems a sure bet that that one will be crushed.

FWIW, this week's record lows for Tally--Monday: 24; Tuesday: 27; Wednesday: 25; Thursday: 26; Friday: 24.



Neo...Are you still producing your wonderful ice cream???
Believe it, Florida.
Here in the middle, the NWS underestimated the temp drops and N wind speeds for both the Nuri-influenced front and this one.

Barometer rising. Here in central OK, one flurry an hour ago, moving rapidly south in a stiff N wind. NWS this morning extended The Winter Weather Advisories to more OKlahoma counties, and the forecast snow amounts have doubled. Still... only up to 2" forecasted here.

Update 12:45 p cst: Light snow for awhile now. Beginning to accumulate on the ground.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.


.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF THE FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. IF ENCOUNTERING
FOG SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU. THE FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. INCREASING WIND
SHEAR WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND OR TORNADOES.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS... LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BRING INCREASING WAVE ACTION ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE
WITH ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..INCLUDING EXTENDED DURATIONS
OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

$$

MCMICHAEL
A little early in the season, but very similar to past interior New England/Canadian ice storm tracks.

1997 - 1998 strong El Nino pattern. Fascinating link out of Burlington NWS.

Link

Quoting 733. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS has backed off the chance of snow on Wednesday before Thanksgiving for the Eastcoast.
Temperatures will just be too warm.

Sounds like more fantasy than Science. Made the news though.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
A little early in the season, but very similar to past interior New England/Canadian ice storm tracks.

1997 - 1998 strong El Nino pattern. Fascinating link out of Burlington NWS.

Link



I was born in Washington D.C. and spent 15 years living in the area.
My uncle had a farm in Upper Marlboro Maryland where everyone would meet up on Thanksgiving.
I remember a few times when we had some snow flurries or light snow on Thanksgiving, but nothing heavy.
Usually we'd see our first good snow around Dec. 10th or so.
Tuesday morning


12Z GFS for Wednesday morning. The GFS has been pretty consistent with these temperatures.


So far, I'm pretty underwhelmed with this supposed rain event for south AL and north FL. The front is moving much too fast, but it's moving almost straight NE. We are getting SE winds, which has brought the temperature up to 67, but we've had very little dew point recovery, with the dewpoint still being stuck in the low 50's. The rain shield on the south end of the front is starting to outrun the upper air support. All the rain is falling in the cool air north of the front with nothing south. The severe weather threat looks extremely minimal at this point. There are no thunderstorms being reported in AL, MS or LA. The only chance for even getting thunderstorms is if the small area of low pressure just off the TX/LA coast starts to develop, which it's not doing yet. We are supposed to have a 100% chance of rain tonight and tomorrow with 1" to 2" total. Unless things change in the eight hours, I'll once again be lucky to get more than a couple of tenths when the battered south end of the front finally gets here.
Quoting 732. Neapolitan:

The lowest November temperature ever measured in Tallahassee was 13 (11/25/1970), one of only two times the city has ever reached the teens before December (the other was in 1950); that record, thankfully, doesn't appear to be in jeopardy this coming week. But the record low for the 19th--that is, Wednesday morning--is 25; given the forecast, it seems a sure bet that that one will be crushed.

FWIW, this week's record lows for Tally--Monday: 24; Tuesday: 27; Wednesday: 25; Thursday: 26; Friday: 24.


Yeah when I said records, I meant a daily record, not a monthly one, I should have clarified that, but thanks for doing it for me.

Btw, its hard to believe we've actually gotten as cold as 13 here in November. This area can get strangely cold on radiational cooling nights, sometimes getting colder than Atlanta and Birmingham, but if the wind is blowing, the temps are about the same than other areas in North FL and South GA/AL.

Last winter, for example, we had a very intense cold outbreak where the high temp never broke 32 despite full sun, one of campus fountain partially froze into giant ice crystals, and some pipes broke. The thing is, while duration below freezing, and below 30 was very long with that event, and we set the record as the coldest high temp in years, the actual low only got to 18, which while it was cold, wasn't even close to records. This is thanks to the fact that the winds were blowing very strong, with did make for a nasty cold wind chill that reached as low as 9.

Still, if the winds had gotten calm, we could have easily gotten down around 10 degrees for a low.

With this event, to have forecast highs in the 40's with the November sun still being quite strong here is very impressive, with that said, if we got a strong radiational cooling event, this event would have good chance at plunging us into the teens. However, the model guidance and the NWS is not expecting high center to move right over the area, so the light winds should keep us in the low to mid 20's, still though, as it stands, daily records are being forecast to be broken, which is still very impressive despite that we won't have ideal radiational cooling.

The funny thing is, our forecast lows are expected to get colder than Baltimore Maryland, here is Baltimore's forecast for the cold event, followed by Tallahassee by the NWS:

Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.


Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 48. North northwest wind around 15 mph.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 54.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 29.



This is very interesting to me, how the same cold event could produce colder lows here, even though Baltimore's highs are much colder. Obviously the sun angle is lower up there, and being further north the airmass is less moderated, so that accounts for the expected difference in high temps.

However the fact that we are expecting colder lows here is truly amazing to me, it tells me that the soil composition in Tallahassee is much more efficient at radiation heat at night than Baltimore. It's also likely that urbanization is playing a role too, Tallahassee is a pretty small town, only a population a little more than 50,000 people, and the area surrounding Tallahassee becomes very low population, and very rural, for a very long distance in the area.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Tuesday morning


12Z GFS for Wednesday morning. The GFS has been pretty consistent with these temperatures.


I suspect the GFS really has a warm bias for both days. We should bottom out at about 20 on Tuesday morning and about 24 Wednesday morning. The cold air advection is going to be fierce once the front finally passes through, and there's plenty of cold air not far to the north. I don't know why the GFS is depicting such relatively warm overnight lows.
Our record low for Nov.18th is 40 degrees here in Fort Myers.
We most likely will not break or tie the record.

Forecast low for the city is 44 degrees.

Should see upper 30s inland away from the coast.


Yes. I am twitterpated.

(Sorry. Tried to reduce that image size, but it ain't happening. I'll just remove it. The tweet links to it)
Quoting Jedkins01:


However the fact that we are expecting colder lows here is truly amazing to me, it tells me that the soil composition in Tallahassee is much more efficient at radiation heat at night than Baltimore. It's also likely that urbanization is playing a role too, Tallahassee is a pretty small town, only a population a little more than 50,000 people, and the area surrounding Tallahassee becomes very low population, and very rural, for a very long distance in the area.

Jed, I don't know where you're getting your population figures but Tallahassee has 186,000 people, not 50,000, so it's a pretty fair sized city. Eufaula, OTOH, really is a small town, with just 13,000 people and no cities of any size withing 50 miles. I think the reason we both get colder than areas further north is that we're exposed to the cold air draining from the Appalachians and we're just far enough from the Gulf so it doesn't have much moderating influence. There's some downslope heating component to the air draining off the Appalachians to the north of us but that's gone by the time it gets here. There are no areas of even moderate elevation north of us to break up the air flow so the CAA has a long time to work by the time it gets here. It's all flat with pine woods and farm fields, so radiational cooling is very efficient on a calm night. You're closer to the Gulf than me so you'll be a couple of degrees warmer, but not much. We should have a low of 20 on Tuesday morning with a chance we'll actually be in the high teens. Our record low for the day is a balmy 26 set in 1951 so we shouldn't have any problem setting a new record.
Now snowing in Norman, Oklahoma in Central OK.
Quoting 719. Jedkins01:





Here's the NWS forecast for Tallahassee Tuesday:


Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 48. North northwest wind around 15 mph.

Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22.




It's hard to believe this is a real forecast, 22 for a low and 40's for highs is unreal for this time of of year! The forecast low is at least a few degrees below record lows, absolutely nuts.

You think this type of stuff is going to be happening through Dec-Jan-Feb? Or will it be a sudden turnaround come the New Year? After a late November ice storm in Illinois in 2006, I remember the period from Christmas on was warmer with thunderstorms on Christmas day and a spring so early that trees leafing out were zapped in March. I also remember traveling to Florida in January 2007 to see deciduous trees such as bradford pears flowering and down in Orlando it being 80 degrees.
Interesting:




DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FL/SOUTH GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA/CONUS...WITH A SLOW-EASTWARD-SHIFTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS
PRECEDING AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING SOME SEVERE
RISK.

...NORTHERN FL/SOUTH GA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. AIDED BY THE WARM CONVEYOR...IT APPEARS
THAT STRONGER-CALIBER STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD BE
ONGOING AROUND THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO/APALACHICOLA VICINITY MONDAY MORNING. THESE EARLY DAY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND/OR THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY...WHILE OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP/MATURE
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITHIN A SOMEWHAT
LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTH GA. THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
SUPERCELL/SUSTAINED LINE SEGMENT POTENTIAL WITH AN ASSOCIATED
DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
SPREAD AWAY THE REGION.
Weather.com (which I find to be the most accurate) says 27 on Tuesday, with Wunderground at an unbelievable 23 deg.

If it turns out that bad it would be incredible considering that many times 23 degrees is the lowest it gets during the entire winter.
I really don't understand TWC.

There's a named Winter Storm (that they gave a name) with snow breaking out across the Southern Plains. In addition there's severe weather along the Gulf Coast.

But the TWC just shows re-runs of the same show about highway wrecker trucks.

I just don't get it. There are major weather events taking place across the country, but they choose to show time wasting programming.
Hi over there in your US-freezer from still quite warm Germany ... Guess you're tired of the usual flooding news from Southern Europe, nevertheless ...


Observed rainfall the last 24h in Europe in certain stations (click to enlarge). Source.

Click to get some pictures:
Floods bring devastation to parts of Italy and France
BBC News video report, 3 hours ago
Storms and heavy rains have battered parts of western Europe, causing a number of fatalities.
Three members of one family were killed in the south of France when their car was swept away.
In Italy, some towns have been evacuated after heavy rain burst river banks and flooded streets.
Catharina Moh reports.


Currently low "Thea" is circling over our heads. Forecast map for tomorrow:



Saved loop.

As I'm tired from an exhibition this weekend I wish you all a nice Sunday afternoon/evening.
Quoting 752. opal92nwf:


You think this type of stuff is going to be happening through Dec-Jan-Feb? Or will it be a sudden turnaround come the New Year? After a late November ice storm in Illinois in 2007, I remember the period from Christmas on was unbelievably warm with thunderstorms on Christmas day and a spring so early that trees leafing out were zapped in March. I also remember traveling to Florida in January 2007 to see deciduous trees such as bradford pears flowering and down in Orlando it being 80+ degrees.



I couldn't really say, it all depends on the evolution of the flow, i.e. will we have ridging later into the winter or more troughing?

If winter looks anything like the upper pattern across the U.S. right now, it will be a bitterly cold winter from the great lakes down into Florida.

If strong ridge develops in the east, it will be warm, dry, and boring.

I really hope the trough remains, some might complain because of the cold, but as long as strong trough remains, there will be increasing chances for beneficial rain down here, and snow up north. Precip is good, dryness is bad, lol.
Quoting 736. PalmBeachWeather:




Neo...Are you still producing your wonderful ice cream???
What I've discovered about most any ice cream is if you pour on some of that special chocolate sauce, within in a few seconds the cold, cold ice cream hardens the sauce and makes ice cream extra-delicious. Coffee ice cream in particular.
Quoting 751. Sfloridacat5:

Now snowing in Norman, Oklahoma in Central OK.
Old news, old news. You owe me a penny. ;)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
What I've discovered about most any ice cream is if you pour on some of that special chocolate sauce, within in a few seconds the cold, cold ice cream hardens the sauce and makes ice cream extra-delicious. Coffee ice cream in particular.Old news, old news. You owe me a penny. ;)


We'll it can't be too old, because I've been watching the live cam from Norman.
Last I checked it was just sticking to grassy surfaces.
I used to do a lot of hanging out in Norman. Norman is a lot more fun than OKC being that it's a college town.
Redskins - Already three turnovers - they must be eating buttered popcorn because they can't hold on to the ball to save their life.

Weather related
Storm Chaser just N.E. of Joplin - driving is getting dangerous with snow accumulating on lightly traveled roads. Also some accumulation on the highway.
Quoting 759. Sfloridacat5:



We'll it can't be too old, because I've been watching the live cam from Norman.
Last I checked it was just sticking to grassy surfaces.
I used to do a lot of hanging out in Norman. Norman is a lot more fun than OKC being that it's a college town.

Just pulling your leg. Been snowing steadily south of Norman where I live since 11:45 or so, cst. Snow was reported in NW Norman on twitter before and around that time. Twitter has the best current info for OK storms hashtag #okwx.

Other than an occasional large flake, this snow looks kind of dry.
ADD:
Lots of accidents up in the OKC metro today. Except on rare occasion, like a concert or dinner or shopping not available here, I avoid Norman and OKC.

GFS 2m Air Temp. for 06z Wed, Nov 19 shows 54 deg. , Lowest temperature I've seen so far for the Miami area next week. Looks like my orchids are safe for now!

Quoting 757. Jedkins01:




I couldn't really say, it all depends on the evolution of the flow, i.e. will we have ridging later into the winter or more troughing?

If winter looks anything like the upper pattern across the U.S. right now, it will be a bitterly cold winter from the great lakes down into Florida.

If strong ridge develops in the east, it will be warm, dry, and boring.

I really hope the trough remains, some might complain because of the cold, but as long as strong trough remains, there will be increasing chances for beneficial rain down here, and snow up north. Precip is good, dryness is bad, lol.


Yes, I'd rather have interesting winter weather.

Although having more interesting winter weather is a mixed blessing. Right now I'm celebrating the fact that a couple of my citrus trees (one of which has never beared fruit before) have a bumper crop; they need just about another month to fully ripen. Now it seems pretty possible that I will have to do the major undertaking of covering them a good deal this winter (including this upcoming freeze), since they get damaged below about 27 deg.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
JUst pulling your leg. Been snowing steadily south of Norman where I live since 11:45 or so, cst. Snow was reported in NW Norman on twitter before and around that time. Twitter has the best current info for Ok storms hashtag #okwx.

Other than an occasional large flake, this snow looks kind of dry.


I didn't know you were in Oklahoma. I still have a lot of friends in Norman, Oklahoma City and Tulsa. I graduated from Moore High School.

It's pretty early in the season to see snow in that area.
Quoting tropicofcancer:
GFS 2m Air Temp. for 06z Wed, Nov 19 shows 54 deg. , Lowest temperature I've seen so far for the Miami area next week. Looks like my orchids are safe for now!



See comment #742.
GFS (12z Wednesday) has the temps a couple degrees cooler on Wednesday morning.
With the GFS maps the 12z temps are usually the coldest for the day.
Random snow totals...

0919 AM SNOW GUYMON 36.69N 101.48W
11/16/2014 E3.0 INCH TEXAS OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

1033 AM SNOW MOUND CITY 38.14N 94.82W
11/16/2014 E3.0 INCH LINN KS 911 CALL CENTER
ESTIMATED 3 INCHES SNOW. NUMEROUS SLIDE OFFS AND
ACCIDENTS
.

0946 AM SNOW 3 ESE ANGEL FIRE 36.38N 105.24W
11/16/2014 E13.0 INCH COLFAX NM PUBLIC
ANGEL FIRE SKI AREA.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E GROSS 42.95N 98.55W
11/16/2014 M7.0 INCH BOYD NE CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR TOTAL. SNOW DEPTH 7 IN.

0808 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
11/16/2014 M6.0 INCH MINERAL CO TRAINED SPOTTER
Quoting 750. sar2401:


Jed, I don't know where you're getting your population figures but Tallahassee has 186,000 people, not 50,000, so it's a pretty fair sized city. Eufaula, OTOH, really is a small town, with just 13,000 people and no cities of any size withing 50 miles. I think the reason we both get colder than areas further north is that we're exposed to the cold air draining from the Appalachians and we're just far enough from the Gulf so it doesn't have much moderating influence. There's some downslope heating component to the air draining off the Appalachians to the north of us but that's gone by the time it gets here. There are no areas of even moderate elevation north of us to break up the air flow so the CAA has a long time to work by the time it gets here. It's all flat with pine woods and farm fields, so radiational cooling is very efficient on a calm night. You're closer to the Gulf than me so you'll be a couple of degrees warmer, but not much. We should have a low of 20 on Tuesday morning with a chance we'll actually be in the high teens. Our record low for the day is a balmy 26 set in 1951 so we shouldn't have any problem setting a new record.


You know, I'll be straight out honest, I have no idea where I got the 50,000 population thing from either, that was a major error, lol. Normally I always check for facts, but in this case I didn't and for some reason I had 50,000 in mind. It might be because of growing up in the Tampa Bay area where its all one big city of population in the millions makes Tallahassee feel like a small city. Especially because here in Tallahassee, they do a good job of keeping a lot of plant foliage and trees around, even the downtown district is full of large, old oak trees, along with the fact that downtown is quite small.

Also, population rapidly drops off to almost nothing at all not far away from the city. It only takes a good 10-15 minute drive and you're in deer and farm territory for miles and miles.

Not sure where I came up with that 50,000 number from though, lol. It does feel like a small town from my prospective. But where you live is indeed very small.

And yeah as far as to why it can get so cold here and up where you are at night, I agree, those are good explanations for why the lows can get so cold here during cold outbreak events.
Quoting 763. opal92nwf:


Yes, I'd rather have interesting winter weather.

Although having more interesting winter weather is a mixed blessing. Right now I'm celebrating the fact that a couple of my citrus trees (one of which has never beared fruit before) have a bumper crop; they need just about another month to fully ripen. Now it seems pretty possible that I will have to do the major undertaking of covering them a good deal this winter (including this upcoming freeze), since they get damaged below about 27 deg.


Yeah I know what you mean. The best possible solution for us would be a setup where troughs are deep enough to bring upper energy into the area but not strong enough to bring massive arctic blasts, that along with an active subtropical jet over the gulf and the deep south would be the best solution. Basically that's an El Nino type solution, where we frequently have below average temps due to frequent frontal passages, and areas of low pressure, but not well below average temps due to a lack of sharp arctic troughs. Also an active subtropical jet is crucial to cyclogenesis ranging between the deep south and the gulf, along with rapid moisture return, which of course meas a lot more rain. I'm hoping for a weak El Nino setup for that reason because the combination of cooler than normal temps but not too cold and a lot of rain is good for the plants and makes for fun, interesting weather.

Fruit trees in this part of Florida can be a bit of a gamble, as temps historically in north Florida can get surprisingly cold. Further south into the peninsula, damaging freezes can still occur, but they come a lot less often then up here. In Tallahassee, temps dipping below 25 in the winter is definitely not rare. The average first freeze here is late November, though we've already had 2.
nothing yet, but a warning for 3-5 inches of snow has been issued for the Central part of the forecasting area. Still under an advisory.
Let's hope that I fall under a warning soon. I need the snow.


In the meantime, Albus seems to be strengthening, considering there is a warning for both Louisville and Paducah.

Confidence scale again...

Forecast: Winter storm warning for Jackson county.

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
-------------------> (borderline medium)

Forecast: 3 inches of snow for ZIP62901

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
----------------------------------->

Forecast: School cancellations across the forecasting area for Monday.

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
------------->
And I have a question: Do the 18Z model runs come out at Noon CST and the 00Z model runs come out at 6pm CST or do the 12z runs come out at Noon CST and the 18Z runs at 6pm CST?
Quoting 748. Sfloridacat5:




I've always found it interesting on how cold air drains down the west side of the state more efficiently than the east side. Orlando is the same latitude as Brooksville Florida but Brooksville is often about 10 degrees colder or more. Tampa, Sarasota, and even as far south as Punta Gorda have often gotten colder for lows than Orlando, despite that all these regions are further south and closer to the coast.


Also I love the insane temperature gradient between south and north Florida, Tallahassee at 22, while Key West at 64, and Miami at 68.

Last night it was 39 here during the FSU vs Miami game, while it was 74 in Miami.

Florida probably has the most insane range in temps in the country during the cooler season for a region that doesn't have much change in elevation.
First warning of Tropical Cyclone 01S ADJALI at Southern Indian Ocean.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW TODAY
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS HAS KEPT CONDITIONS
DRY ESPECIALLY ALOFT. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO DEVELOP A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS PROCESS WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN BOTH VERY CONSISTENT THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS AND HAVE THE FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ENDING THE THUNDER THREAT. IN FACT, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW LEVELS TO BECOME
EXTREMELY STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WITH VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND NO LONGER IN THE DEEPENING PHASE WITH BOTH MODELS
SUGGESTING THE COLD FRONT WILL COME TO A SCREECHING HALT AND STALL
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HOWEVER, IT IS MY THINKING THAT THIS AIR
MASS IS ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS AND WILL OUR COLDEST AIR
SO FAR THIS SEASON AND THAT THE FRONT WILL THEREFORE WILL BE ABLE TO
TRAVERSE MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING.
SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MODEL GUIDANCE FOR POPS IS BEING OVERDONE
BUT REGARDLESS ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE FRONT COMING THROUGH SO EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO STEADY TEMPERATURES DURING THE MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN
FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DEGREES OR MAYBE EVEN UPPER 30S IN THE
AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO THIS WILL
START A MODIFICATION PROCESS AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND BECOMES
NORTHEASTERLY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AREAS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST, BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE A WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
Quoting 767. Jedkins01:



You know, I'll be straight out honest, I have no idea where I got the 50,000 population thing from either, that was a major error, lol. Normally I always check for facts, but in this case I didn't and for some reason I had 50,000 in mind. It might be because of growing up in the Tampa Bay area where its all one big city of population in the millions makes Tallahassee feel like a small city. Especially because here in Tallahassee, they do a good job of keeping a lot of plant foliage and trees around, even the downtown district is full of large, old oak trees, along with the fact that downtown is quite small.

Also, population rapidly drops off to almost nothing at all not far away from the city. It only takes a good 10-15 minute drive and you're in deer and farm territory for miles and miles.

Not sure where I came up with that 50,000 number from though, lol. It does feel like a small town from my prospective. But where you live is indeed very small.

And yeah as far as to why it can get so cold here and up where you are at night, I agree, those are good explanations for why the lows can get so cold here during cold outbreak events.


76% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:12 PM PST on November 16, 2014
Scattered Clouds
64.9 °F / 18.3 °C
Humidity: 8%
Dew Point: 2 °F / -17 °C
Wind: 16.0 mph / 25.7 km/h / 7.2 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 33.0 mph / 53.1 km/h / 17.5 m/s

Pressure: 30.13 in / 1020 hPa (Falling)
Very Windy here today, and Dry too.
Quoting 752. opal92nwf:


You think this type of stuff is going to be happening through Dec-Jan-Feb? Or will it be a sudden turnaround come the New Year? After a late November ice storm in Illinois in 2007, I remember the period from Christmas on was unbelievably warm with thunderstorms on Christmas day and a spring so early that trees leafing out were zapped in March. I also remember traveling to Florida in January 2007 to see deciduous trees such as bradford pears flowering and down in Orlando it being 80+ degrees.


Don't you mean late November and early december of 2006? That was the really bad ice storm. School was out for several days, a car went into a ditch near my house (they were ok though), a tree nearly hit my house, power was out almost a week and everything was covered in a good 1/4- 1/2 an inch of ice. However, it was around new year's eve that it got warmer and rainier.
Quoting 769. 62901IL:

nothing yet, but a warning for 3-5 inches of snow has been issued for the Central part of the forecasting area. Still under an advisory.
Let's hope that I fall under a warning soon. I need the snow.


In the meantime, Albus seems to be strengthening, considering there is a warning for both Louisville and Paducah.

Confidence scale again...

Forecast: Winter storm warning for Jackson county.

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
-------------------> (borderline medium)

Forecast: 3 inches of snow for ZIP62901

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
----------------------------------->

Forecast: School cancellations across the forecasting area for Monday.

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
------------->


It's been snowing most of the afternoon here. However, there's maybe less than .2 inches on the ground.
Quoting 776. TimTheWxMan:



Don't you mean late November and early december of 2006? That was the really bad ice storm. School was out for several days, a car went into a ditch near my house (they were ok though), a tree nearly hit my house, power was out almost a week and everything was covered in a good 1/4- 1/2 an inch of ice. However, it was around new year's eve that it got warmer and rainier.

Oh yeah, that's right, 2006. This is what it looked like on my street.
Quoting 778. opal92nwf:


Oh yeah, that's right, 2006. This is what it looked like on my street.



That's what it looked like at my house as well. I wonder when Stormfest is. I've heard nothing about the one in 2015.
Quoting 768. Jedkins01:



Yeah I know what you mean. The best possible solution for us would be a setup where troughs are deep enough to bring upper energy into the area but not strong enough to bring massive arctic blasts, that along with an active subtropical jet over the gulf and the deep south would be the best solution. Basically that's an El Nino type solution, where we frequently have below average temps due to frequent frontal passages, and areas of low pressure, but not well below average temps due to a lack of sharp arctic troughs. Also an active subtropical jet is crucial to cyclogenesis ranging between the deep south and the gulf, along with rapid moisture return, which of course meas a lot more rain. I'm hoping for a weak El Nino setup for that reason because the combination of cooler than normal temps but not too cold and a lot of rain is good for the plants and makes for fun, interesting weather.

Fruit trees in this part of Florida can be a bit of a gamble, as temps historically in north Florida can get surprisingly cold. Further south into the peninsula, damaging freezes can still occur, but they come a lot less often then up here. In Tallahassee, temps dipping below 25 in the winter is definitely not rare. The average first freeze here is late November, though we've already had 2.

I don't know what this area is going to do when we get some 1980's type freezes. Since then, the number of marginally hardy palms and tropicals planted has been extensive. If it does happen again, this part of Florida is going to completely lose most of its "tropical" landscaping. I think there are only about 5 types of palms alone that can withstand temps like that. You look around yards in older neighborhoods around here, and the only old, mature palms you see are Sabal palms (state tree) and pindo palms.
Quoting 779. TimTheWxMan:



That's what it looked like at my house as well. I wonder when Stormfest is. I've heard nothing about the one in 2015.

Stormfest?
Quoting 766. Skyepony:

Random snow totals...

0919 AM SNOW GUYMON 36.69N 101.48W
11/16/2014 E3.0 INCH TEXAS OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

1033 AM SNOW MOUND CITY 38.14N 94.82W
11/16/2014 E3.0 INCH LINN KS 911 CALL CENTER
ESTIMATED 3 INCHES SNOW. NUMEROUS SLIDE OFFS AND
ACCIDENTS
.

0946 AM SNOW 3 ESE ANGEL FIRE 36.38N 105.24W
11/16/2014 E13.0 INCH COLFAX NM PUBLIC
ANGEL FIRE SKI AREA.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E GROSS 42.95N 98.55W
11/16/2014 M7.0 INCH BOYD NE CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR TOTAL. SNOW DEPTH 7 IN.

0808 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
11/16/2014 M6.0 INCH MINERAL CO TRAINED SPOTTER


Here is another one:

Anchorage and Eagle RIver, Alaska ---- 0 Inches...
Quoting 781. opal92nwf:


Stormfest?


Link

Didn't you say you were from the St. Louis area too?
Quoting Jedkins01:


I've always found it interesting on how cold air drains down the west side of the state more efficiently than the east side. Orlando is the same latitude as Brooksville Florida but Brooksville is often about 10 degrees colder or more. Tampa, Sarasota, and even as far south as Punta Gorda have often gotten colder for lows than Orlando, despite that all these regions are further south and closer to the coast.


Also I love the insane temperature gradient between south and north Florida, Tallahassee at 22, while Key West at 64, and Miami at 68.

Last night it was 39 here during the FSU vs Miami game, while it was 74 in Miami.

Florida probably has the most insane range in temps in the country during the cooler season for a region that doesn't have much change in elevation.


Florida and Texas.
Snow has been falling in the Texas Panhandle with 17 degrees at Amarillo. It's 81 degrees in Brownsville. That's a 64 degree difference.

But Texas is much larger and has a much greater spread in latitude from Brownsville to Amarillo.
Quoting 783. TimTheWxMan:



Link

Didn't you say you were from the St. Louis area too?

That looks really cool. I moved away in June 2007. We almost decided to stay, but came back to FL to family.
DAK!! How've you been?
I'm getting snow tonight, and there is a winter storm warning to the south of me. I'm really really really really really hoping I fall under a warning because I really need 3+ inches of snow. I'm planning to build a Snow&Sleet man if I can on monday. I tried to do it last winter, but failed each time, but I feel that Winter Storm Albus (I'm naming winter storms this year-I decided to call this one Albus) could give me another attempt. 
What's the weather like wherever you live? Am I correct in saying you live in Alaska? 
Amarillo is on a similar latitude as Memphis Tenn., while Brownsville is similar to Miami FL.

There's no wonder Texas has such a wide spread of weather and temperatures.
Quoting 784. Sfloridacat5:



Florida and Texas.
Snow has been falling in the Texas Panhandle with 17 degrees at Amarillo. It's 81 degrees in Brownsville. That's a 64 degree difference.

But Texas is much larger and has a much greater spread in latitude from Brownsville to Amarillo.


Yeah, I would have said Texas, but Texas almost doesn't count because of its massive size. Also, northwest Texas including Amarillo is much higher elevation than anything else Florida has.
Quoting 769. 62901IL:

nothing yet, but a warning for 3-5 inches of snow has been issued for the Central part of the forecasting area. Still under an advisory.
Let's hope that I fall under a warning soon. I need the snow.


In the meantime, Albus seems to be strengthening, considering there is a warning for both Louisville and Paducah.

Confidence scale again...

Forecast: Winter storm warning for Jackson county.

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
-------------------> (borderline medium)

Forecast: 3 inches of snow for ZIP62901

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
----------------------------------->

Forecast: School cancellations across the forecasting area for Monday.

Low----------------Medium-------------------High
------------->


Winter storm warning south of you. Highest snow total so far in the stl metro:

000 NWUS53 KLSX 161914 LSRLSX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 114 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0113 PM SNOW 7 S BLAND 38.20N 91.63W 11/16/2014 M3.5 INCH GASCONADE MO TRAINED SPOTTER STILL SNOWING && $$ CARNEY
Quoting 770. 62901IL:

And I have a question: Do the 18Z model runs come out at Noon CST and the 00Z model runs come out at 6pm CST or do the 12z runs come out at Noon CST and the 18Z runs at 6pm CST?

None of the above. It's a bit more complicated than that.
Link
NAM - 48 hour snowfall forecast

Quoting 785. opal92nwf:


That looks really cool. I moved away in June 2007. We almost decided to stay, but came back to FL to family.


I'm a lifelong St. Louisan, but hope to live in the southeast once i graduate college. However, for some reason my family insists i stay in St. Louis (since there are some GIS jobs here, but face it, a lot of young adults are moving to places like raleigh, nashville, atlanta, charlotte, jacksonville, etc.). Honestly, i don't enjoy GIS as much as i enjoy weather. However, the university i go to doesn't have much in terms of meteorology. :/
Adjali may end up stronger than the forecast peak of 60kts... nice inner core developing.

Quoting 780. opal92nwf:


I don't know what this area is going to do when we get some 1980's type freezes. Since then, the number of marginally hardy palms and tropicals planted has been extensive. If it does happen again, this part of Florida is going to completely lose most of its "tropical" landscaping. I think there are only about 5 types of palms alone that can withstand temps like that. You look around yards in older neighborhoods around here, and the only old, mature palms you see are Sabal palms (state tree) and pindo palms.


Yeah I agree, but it seems as that tropical plants are pretty good at coming back after dying. Last winter a lot of tropical plants died on the FSU campus during that intense cold outbreak, but all of them grew back by the end of the Spring semester. Even the Banana palms which completely died to the point of falling over and turning papery white ended up growing back. As far as I know, as long as the ground temp stays above freezing, it allows the roots to survive which leads to new growth when warmth and rainfall return. The short duration of very cold temps here isn't long enough for freezing ground conditions and death to the roots.
Definitely not a boring forecast here coming up:

000
FXUS62 KTAE 162049
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2014

...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Late Tonight and Monday...

...Record Cold Temperatures Expected This Week...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
After another fairly chilly start across the CWA this morning,
afternoon temps have actually recovered fairly well, especially
where the low clouds have broken up and lifted across much of the
Florida Big Bend. Locations like Tallahassee, which were supposed
to top out in the lower 70s are now headed into the upper 70s,
while areas that have remained more covered in clouds have held in
the upper 60s. Lows tonight should be much milder than recent nights
(although for just a very brief period), and are expected to range
from the mid to upper 50s to the lower 60s as cloud cover will be
rapidly on the increase out ahead of the next cold front. PoPs
will also be on the increase from W to E by late tonight, and if
we are able to attain sufficient instability, the possibility for
a severe storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL
Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters towards Sunrise Monday
morning, so added Isolated T+ to the grids from 09 to 12 UTC in
this area.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Showers and thunderstorms spread across the forecast area from
west to east Monday morning ahead of the approaching cold front.
Guidance continues to indicate a rapid recovery to the low-level
airmass, with dewpoints reaching the upper 60s over the southern
half of the area. These dewpoints will help to support surface-
based CAPE approaching 1000j/kg during the morning and early
afternoon hours ahead of the front. With deep-layer shear aoa 50
knots and 0-1km shear around 30 knots, expect to see a few strong
to possibly severe cells develop either just ahead of, or embedded
within the main line of showers and storms. Isolated tornadoes and
damaging straight-line winds appear to be the primary threats,
with the area highlighted in the Slight Risk area of the SPC Day 2
Outlook.

The front should move into the western zones shortly after 12z,
reach the Tallahassee area by 18z, and be exiting the southeastern
Big Bend by late in the afternoon. Very strong cold air advection
will commence immediately following the frontal passage, with
temperatures falling for much of the day over the western half of
the forecast area. Roughly the northwestern half of the CWA will
likely fall below freezing by sunrise on Tuesday, and a Freeze
Watch has been issued for these counties. With the expected winds,
may see Wind Chill reading briefly fall below 20 degrees in
southeast Alabama.

With the continuing cold air advection on Wednesday, temperatures
will struggle into the 40s, with only the immediate coast and
southeastern Big Bend having a shot at getting above 50 degrees.
The coldest night will be Tuesday night as the surface high
settles in over central/south Georgia, creating ideal radiational
cooling conditions. A widespread hard freeze is likely with low
temperatures reaching the lower 20 away from the immediated coast.
There may even be a few upper teens in SE Alabama and the inland
Florida Panhandle. This will likely be record breaking cold for
the date.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
A slow and gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday. However,
highs will still only reach the lower 50s by afternoon, and
another solid freeze is expected Wednesday night. Highs through
the remainder of the week should make it into the 60s, but even
this will be a few degrees below normal. More substantial warming
will likely have to wait until late in the weekend ahead of the
next significant front and chance of rain.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I know what you mean. The best possible solution for us would be a setup where troughs are deep enough to bring upper energy into the area but not strong enough to bring massive arctic blasts, that along with an active subtropical jet over the gulf and the deep south would be the best solution. Basically that's an El Nino type solution, where we frequently have below average temps due to frequent frontal passages, and areas of low pressure, but not well below average temps due to a lack of sharp arctic troughs. Also an active subtropical jet is crucial to cyclogenesis ranging between the deep south and the gulf, along with rapid moisture return, which of course meas a lot more rain. I'm hoping for a weak El Nino setup for that reason because the combination of cooler than normal temps but not too cold and a lot of rain is good for the plants and makes for fun, interesting weather.

Fruit trees in this part of Florida can be a bit of a gamble, as temps historically in north Florida can get surprisingly cold. Further south into the peninsula, damaging freezes can still occur, but they come a lot less often then up here. In Tallahassee, temps dipping below 25 in the winter is definitely not rare. The average first freeze here is late November, though we've already had 2.
I was in Lake City, Florida--roughly 100 miles east of Tally--in early 1985 when the great cold wave swept in. Both Tallahassee and Lake City dropped to 6F, which was far lower than I ever thought I'd see in Florida. (That's the same front I've talked about here where a heavy ice storm caused the broadcast tower of the radio station where I worked to collapse.) So this week's forecasted 22 is certainly miserable for Floridians--but it's far "warmer" than something in the single digits...
I think there is sleet falling in ZIP62901! WOOHOO!! Bring it Damar!!!
Nearby Weather Stations to warm for snow here
DopplerDon.com, East Haven
42.5 °F
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford
41.5 °F
Rock Hill
41.8 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
43.0 °F
Foxon
41.4 °F
East Haven Town Beach
44.0 °F
Branford Shoreline
43.7 °F
It looks like another major dump of snow for the upper Great Lakes.
All rain for the Eastcoast
Summary:
Message Evaluation:
* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.7 OCCURRED OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND AT 2233 UTC ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 16 2014.
* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.

EVALUATION RECOMMENDED ACTIONS -------------------
* NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.

NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION --------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.
* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.
* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON... BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.
$$
There has been so many wrecks in Oklahoma City area from the snow that, officers are no longer responding to non-injury accidents until weather conditions improve... Motorists who are involved in multiple vehicle, non-injury accidents are asked to exchange insurance information with one another.




Quoting 798. 62901IL:

I think there is sleet falling in ZIP62901! WOOHOO!! Bring it Damar!!!

How about a picture?
Labbock, TX is a mess too. People should avoid driving in these icy conditions... People are being urged to stay off the roads..

At least four fatal crashes and more than 50 other wrecks have been reported on Lubbock area roads Sunday.
Quoting 806. Skyepony:

Labbock, TX is mess too. People should avoid driving in these icy conditions... People are being urged to stay off the roads..

At least four fatal crashes and more than 50 other wrecks have been reported on Lubbock area roads Sunday.


Sounds like the roads are slicker than snot...

And of course the local DOT doesn't know how to deal with snow/sleet/ice conditions... Need to at least get some dirt/gravel out on those roads, as well as, close them down.

RIP the people that were killed today - hopefully local government will get on the ball and prevent more injuries. I know this is easier said than done.
First storm of the season seems to always bring out the worst in drivers .. and when in an area that doesn't receive that much wintry weather it makes it even worse ..
Quoting 744. Jedkins01:



Yeah when I said records, I meant a daily record, not a monthly one, I should have clarified that, but thanks for doing it for me.

Btw, its hard to believe we've actually gotten as cold as 13 here in November. This area can get strangely cold on radiational cooling nights, sometimes getting colder than Atlanta and Birmingham, but if the wind is blowing, the temps are about the same than other areas in North FL and South GA/AL.

Last winter, for example, we had a very intense cold outbreak where the high temp never broke 32 despite full sun, one of campus fountain partially froze into giant ice crystals, and some pipes broke. The thing is, while duration below freezing, and below 30 was very long with that event, and we set the record as the coldest high temp in years, the actual low only got to 18, which while it was cold, wasn't even close to records. This is thanks to the fact that the winds were blowing very strong, with did make for a nasty cold wind chill that reached as low as 9.

Still, if the winds had gotten calm, we could have easily gotten down around 10 degrees for a low.

With this event, to have forecast highs in the 40's with the November sun still being quite strong here is very impressive, with that said, if we got a strong radiational cooling event, this event would have good chance at plunging us into the teens. However, the model guidance and the NWS is not expecting high center to move right over the area, so the light winds should keep us in the low to mid 20's, still though, as it stands, daily records are being forecast to be broken, which is still very impressive despite that we won't have ideal radiational cooling.

The funny thing is, our forecast lows are expected to get colder than Baltimore Maryland, here is Baltimore's forecast for the cold event, followed by Tallahassee by the NWS:

Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25.
Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 35.
Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.


Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 48. North northwest wind around 15 mph.
Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22.
Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 54.
Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 29.



This is very interesting to me, how the same cold event could produce colder lows here, even though Baltimore's highs are much colder. Obviously the sun angle is lower up there, and being further north the airmass is less moderated, so that accounts for the expected difference in high temps.

However the fact that we are expecting colder lows here is truly amazing to me, it tells me that the soil composition in Tallahassee is much more efficient at radiation heat at night than Baltimore. It's also likely that urbanization is playing a role too, Tallahassee is a pretty small town, only a population a little more than 50,000 people, and the area surrounding Tallahassee becomes very low population, and very rural, for a very long distance in the area.



I noticed when I first came down to TLH in 1984 how dry it sometimes got behind cold outbreaks, more so than further north. Soils just to the south of TLH and all the way to the coast are also sandy and dry out quickly and so have low heat capacity and poor conductivity.

This outbreak will have less pressure gradient over TLH than over BWI so there will be less wind and TLH will probably decouple. BWI I think will too but it will be late at night. Most of tuesday night will have a breeze and keep the radiation inversion from forming and shallow cold air from collecting right at the surface. With the high to our south what wind we have will also produce downsloping though with high lapse rates downsloping doesn't help much. Finally it will be really cold aloft over us, not as much over TLH and paradoxically, its harder to form a radiation inversion when it's colder aloft because the reduced static stability allows mixing with lighter winds and less shear.
But because of the cold aloft we're going to have an all day freeze tuesday DAY and then get to uncommon levels that night, -5C which is a threshold for garden problems. We'll be below -3C for probably 12 hours or more some of that time with decent winds, and I'm going to have to protect my oranges and lemons. It's also time to shut off the outside faucets, a thanksgiving weekend chore that can't wait till then this year.

Another phenomenon I've noticed is that shallow cold air has a hard time getting over the Appalachians and that delays arctic outbreaks a few hours. The cold drains a little further south rather than moving east. Finally, sometimes TLH when in the left entrance side of jet streaks where subsidence is strong while, with the same pattern, we're on the left exit side where lifting, and moisture convergence and some cloudines happens. So we're cold, cloudy and just above freezing while the deep southeast freezes. This pattern was common in March 2013 and April 2007, in the latter month anomalous freezes got almost to the Gulf Coast (this isn't anomalous in March) but the DC metro area was right around freezing, with wind and cloud, many nights the first half of April.. very cold for us but the freeze damage was surprisingly light for the airmass and had been expected to be much worse.
Quoting whitewabit:
First storm of the season seems to always bring out the worst in drivers .. and when in an area that doesn't receive that much wintry weather it makes it even worse ..


Yeah, OKC only averages 8" a year (5 days per year with measureable snow).

Most people don't bother putting snow tires on their car for that reason. I use to live just S.W. of Oklahoma City (graduated from Moore High).

They're lucky the snow didn't hit tomorrow with the streets packed with rush hour traffic. That would have been bad.

Also, Oklahoma City is really flat. The biggest hills are the on and off ramps to the highway. If it wasn't for that I don't know how I would have gotten around when there was snow on the roads.
...more lightening = more ozone... no?
Quoting 795. Jedkins01:



Yeah I agree, but it seems as that tropical plants are pretty good at coming back after dying. Last winter a lot of tropical plants died on the FSU campus during that intense cold outbreak, but all of them grew back by the end of the Spring semester. Even the Banana palms which completely died to the point of falling over and turning papery white ended up growing back. As far as I know, as long as the ground temp stays above freezing, it allows the roots to survive which leads to new growth when warmth and rainfall return. The short duration of very cold temps here isn't long enough for freezing ground conditions and death to the roots.



I noticed this after the 1985 freeze also although with that one the ground froze down a few inches. I've remarked before about being able to walk on frozen solid fire ant mounds the night of the 20'th of January in TLH
Quoting 810. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, OKC only averages 8" a year (5 days per year with measureable snow).

Most people don't bother putting snow tires on their car for that reason. I use to live just S.W. of Oklahoma City (graduated from Moore High).

They're lucky the snow didn't hit tomorrow with the streets packed with rush hour traffic. That would have been bad.

Also, Oklahoma City is really flat. The biggest hills are the on and off ramps to the highway. If it wasn't for that I don't know how I would have gotten around when there was snow on the roads.


I spent the winter there along time ago at Tinker AFB and don't remember it snowing enough to measure .. did have a ice storm I remember
Quoting Skyepony:
There has been so many wrecks in Oklahoma City area from the snow that, officers are no longer responding to non-injury accidents until weather conditions improve... Motorists who are involved in multiple vehicle, non-injury accidents are asked to exchange insurance information with one another.





How about a picture?


Don't have a camera, sorry. But it's changed over to snow now. I estimate that 1\2 inch has fallen, but nothing on the roads and pavement yet.
Don't forget that there's also severe weather going on. First tornado warning of the day as far as i know.

TORNADO WARNING MSC113-147-170000- /O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0025.141116T2309Z-141117T0000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 509 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 600 PM CST * AT 506 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF TYLERTOWN...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCOMB...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... TYLERTOWN BY 530 PM CST... SALEM BY 535 PM CST... 7 MILES NORTH OF DEXTER BY 545 PM CST... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. && LAT...LON 3129 9004 3118 9002 3117 9000 3114 9000 3114 8994 3109 8991 3108 8995 3108 8997 3100 9038 3101 9039 3117 9044 TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 254DEG 26KT 3111 9032 $$
Quoting whitewabit:


I spent the winter there along time ago at Tinker AFB and don't remember it snowing enough ot measure .. did have a ice storm I remember


You're right, they usually get over-running precipitation that falls as freezing drizzle or freezing light rain.
It usually has to be really cold for it to snow (like 28 degrees or colder). I've seen it get down to 23 degrees and the precipitation still wouldn't change over to snow (freezing mist/drizzle).

But it gets very cold there (or it did when I lived there). We would drive our 4x4 trucks out on the frozen ponds and slide around.
We were smart and always tested the thickness of the ice first. These were Winters when the temperature would get down in the single digits and sometimes below 0.

My dad worked at Tinker Airforce Base.
Quoting 814. 62901IL:



Don't have a camera, sorry. But it's changed over to snow now. I estimate that 1\2 inch has fallen, but nothing on the roads and pavement yet.


It's starting to taper off here. It's been all snow so I got a little over 2 inches of snow. There was a little sleet yesterday night though.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


It's starting to taper off here. It's been all snow so I got a little over 2 inches of snow. There was a little sleet yesterday night though.

*coughs* The advisory for my area starts in-about 25 minutes?
I didn't think Albus would give you much moar than a couple inches.
Funny how it's been snowing all day when one year ago tomorrow we would've been talking about a potential tornado outbreak (one of the biggest outbreaks for illinois in november) that ultimately was a high risk (the farthest north for the november to march time period) and devastated towns like Washington, Brookport, Gifford (IL) and Kokomo (IN). What a difference a year makes!
**** mixed with Rain is being shown in the forecast this Friday.Hmm...A high of only 34 degrees is forecast for Tuesday.This is just to similar to 2013.Tuesdays were always some of our coldest days.They also produced ****storms as well.
Jack frost is back
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Funny how it's been snowing all day when one year ago tomorrow we would've been talking about a potential tornado outbreak (one of the biggest outbreaks for illinois in november) that ultimately was a high risk (the farthest north for the november to march time period) and devastated towns like Washington, Brookport, Gifford (IL) and Kokomo (IN). What a difference a year makes!


Roger that! What a difference a year makes!

One year ago tommorow, I was tracking the November 17th tornado outbreak, and tommorow I will be doing stuff that has nothing to do with Tornado Outbreaks.
Quoting 818. 62901IL:


*coughs* The advisory for my area starts in-about 25 minutes?
I didn't think Albus would give you much moar than a couple inches.


Well, there is a winter winter advisory until 9.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 343 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW... ILZ064-065-069-070-074-079-100>102-MOZ074-075-084- 085-099-170300- /O.CON.KLSX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-141117T0300Z/ BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-IRON MO-MADISON IL-MADISON MO- MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CLAIR IL- ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON IL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVILLE...CHESTER...EDWARDSVILLE... FARMINGTON...SALEM...VANDALIA 343 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... * TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES... OVERPASSES...AND UNTREATED ROADS. PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH UPPER 20S THIS EVENING CAUSING UNTREATED WET ROAD SURFACES TO FREEZE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ROADS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME SLIPPERY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN FOR A SLOWER THAN NORMAL TRIP. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT WHEN APPROACHING BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND CURVES. && $$ CARNEY
Quoting 819. TimTheWxMan:

Funny how it's been snowing all day when one year ago tomorrow we would've been talking about a potential tornado outbreak (one of the biggest outbreaks for illinois in november) that ultimately was a high risk (the farthest north for the november to march time period) and devastated towns like Washington, Brookport, Gifford (IL) and Kokomo (IN). What a difference a year makes!


Wife and I stood SE of Washington and watched the F4 tornado tear through town heading for my daughter and grand kids and my brother .. luckily all were spared though many others weren't .. was a terrifying sight
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Well, there is a winter winter advisory until 9.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 343 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW... ILZ064-065-069-070-074-079-100>102-MOZ074-075-0 84- 085-099-170300- /O.CON.KLSX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-141117T0300Z/ BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-IRON MO-MADISON IL-MADISON MO- MARION IL-MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS MO-ST. CLAIR IL- ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WASHINGTON IL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLEVILLE...CHESTER...EDWARDSVILLE... FARMINGTON...SALEM...VANDALIA 343 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... * TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES... OVERPASSES...AND UNTREATED ROADS. PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH UPPER 20S THIS EVENING CAUSING UNTREATED WET ROAD SURFACES TO FREEZE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ROADS MAY RAPIDLY BECOME SLIPPERY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD PLAN FOR A SLOWER THAN NORMAL TRIP. BE ESPECIALLY ALERT WHEN APPROACHING BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND CURVES. && $$ CARNEY

for st louis maybe, but not for me.
Quoting 823. whitewabit:



Wife and I stood SE of Washington and watched the F4 tornado tear through town heading for my daughter and grand kids and my brother .. luckily all were spared though many others weren't .. was a terrifying sight


Glad to know your family was ok. Here, the storms lasted 5-10 minutes. Needless to say, there was a good wind-driven rain and a little damage to the sidings but nothing too serious here. Those storms were moving pretty quickly so they left as fast as they came. It was pretty windy afterwards too with gusts as high as 30-35 mph.
Have the next model runs come out yet?

EDIT: 1900 comments!!!!!!!
Quoting 824. 62901IL:


for st louis maybe, but not for me.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 540 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ILZ075>078-080>086-088-INZ081-082-KYZ001-002-006-0 08-009-011>013- 016-017-020>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>109-170700- /O.CON.KPAH.WW.Y.0012.141117T0000Z-141117T1200Z/ JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-UNION IL-GIBSON-PIKE-FULTON- HICKMAN-GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWE LL-HOPKINS- CHRISTIAN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER- CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...JONESBO RO... FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...HICKMAN...CLINTON...MAYFIELD ... BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON... MADISONVILLE... HOPKINSVILLE...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PER RYVILLE... MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN... POPLAR BLUFF 540 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. * TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. SNOW WITH SOME PERIODS OF SLEET IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST KENTUCKY...MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...INCLUDING SOME SLEET...FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. FROM THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA EAST INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$

There's Carbondale's advisory.
Interior Maine freezing rain over that snowpack. Yuck.

Quoting 803. Sfloridacat5:

It looks like another major dump of snow for the upper Great Lakes.
All rain for the Eastcoast

Quoting 826. 62901IL:

Have the next model runs come out yet?


Latest gfs is still 18Z (12 P.M. CST).
Quoting 826. 62901IL:

Have the next model runs come out yet?

EDIT: 1900 comments!!!!!!!
OMHG.!!!!!
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 540 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ILZ075>078-080>086-088-INZ081-082-KYZ001-002 -006-0 08-009-011>013- 016-017-020>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>109-1 70700- /O.CON.KPAH.WW.Y.0012.141117T0000Z-141117T1200Z/ JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-UNION IL-GIBSON-PIKE-FULTON- HICKMAN-GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWE LL-HOPKINS- CHRISTIAN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER- CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...JONESBO RO... FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...HICKMAN...CLINTON...MAYFIELD ... BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON... MADISONVILLE... HOPKINSVILLE...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PER RYVILLE... MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN... POPLAR BLUFF 540 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY. * TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. SNOW WITH SOME PERIODS OF SLEET IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST KENTUCKY...MORE IN THE WAY OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...INCLUDING SOME SLEET...FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED. FROM THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA EAST INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY...AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$

There's Carbondale's advisory.

okay thanks.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Latest gfs is still 18Z (12 P.M. CST).

When do the next model runs come out?
Quoting hydrus:
OMHG.!!!!!

Mmmm-hmmmm. You said that earlier today.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 529 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 MSC147-170000- /O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-141117T0000Z/ WALTHALL MS- 529 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR WALTHALL COUNTY... AT 527 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SALEM...OR 18 MILES EAST OF MCCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SALEM BY 535 PM CST... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. && LAT...LON 3111 9021 3123 9026 3129 9004 3118 9002 3117 9001 TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 240DEG 29KT 3119 9015 $$
Quoting 833. 62901IL:


When do the next model runs come out?

Mmmm-hmmmm. You said that earlier today.


Within the next 5 to 10 minutes.
The snow's just about out of here now.
838. flsky
~ 95% of the clouds in ECFL today were contrails.
hydrus- please explain post 836 - yeah that's pretty colors and all, but I'm under it- what's IS it?

nvmnd - Zoomed in and read it-
Forecast

Background Monday's Forecast
Monday's Forecast
- Sunday night: An expansive area of snow will fall from parts of the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley along a .

- Monday: A stripe of snow may fall on the backside of an advancing, reinforcing cold front in parts of the Ohio Valley, the interior Northeast, and northern New England.

We can't rule out some patchy areas of sleet and/or freezing rain along the southern edge of the precipitation shield from the southern Plains to parts of Tennessee and Kentucky Sunday and also in parts of the interior Northeast Monday. If cold air remains more stubbornly in place closer to the I-95 corridor, accumulating snow (and potentially some freezing rain) would occur closer to that heavily-populated region Monday. For now, that does not appear to be the case.
Potential Impact: How Much Snow?

Background 48-Hour Snowfall Forecast
48-Hour Snowfall Forecast
Snowfall accumulations in most low-elevation areas should remain less than 6 inches.

However, a narrow zone from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes may pick up more than 6 inches of snow from Winter Storm Bozeman.

It doesn't take much snow to make roads slick, especially in areas less accustomed to frequent snow where more roads may be untreated. Even pre-treated roads could refreeze as colder air spills in later in the weekend.
Quoting 826. 62901IL:

Have the next model runs come out yet?

EDIT: 1900 comments!!!!!!!



in 5 years form now
Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting 826. 62901IL:

Have the next model runs come out yet?

EDIT: 1900 comments!!!!!!!



in 5 years form now

LOL. NIce joke, Tazzy Taz.
46/70 today. Fair until late afternoon when a very thick layer of clouds and mist came in from the east. About 60 now with a steady light east wind.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
Hurricane Warning
TEMPETE TROPICAL MODEREE ADJALI (01-20142015)
4:00 AM RET November 17 2014
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Adjali (993 hPa) located at 9.1S 66.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone's movement at this advisory was undetermined.

Gale Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 10.0S 67.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS 11.1S 67.8E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 13.4 S 68.3E - 75 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 15.0S 66.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
====================
Rapid intensification of the system has improve the last hours with consolidating deep convection organized in curved band wrapping around the improving low level center (temporary hot spot). On AMSR2 data of 20h33, close ring in both 37 and 85 ghz.

Environmental conditions are improving: wet environment, good low level convergence over the monsoon side (and improving on the "weak" southeast quadrant), good upper level divergence and a low shear near the upper level ridge.

During the next 2 days, the system is expected to track southeastwards over the southwestern edge of a near equatorial mid level ridge. On this track, the environmental conditions are good or nearly excellent Monday, then on Tuesday the system is expected to undergo a upper level north to north-westerly constraint.

Beyond that time, a slight strengthening of the northerly then northwesterly shear along with lower oceanic heat contain should gradually weaken the system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from the Mauritius Meteorological Services will be at 6:30 AM UTC...
EPAC has some life left as new invest 97E is up.

EP, 97, 2014111600, , BEST, 0, 69N, 925W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014111606, , BEST, 0, 70N, 936W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014111612, , BEST, 0, 72N, 945W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014111618, , BEST, 0, 75N, 955W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2014111700, , BEST, 0, 78N, 964W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0,
aquak9 the colors in hydrus's map are 12 hour rainfall totals right before Thanksgiving.
Quoting 842. Tazmanian:

Quoting 826. 62901IL:

Have the next model runs come out yet?

EDIT: 1900 comments!!!!!!!



in 5 years form now
why is it taking so long???
Quoting 844. DonnieBwkGA:

46/70 today. Fair until late afternoon when a very thick layer of clouds and mist came in from the east. About 60 now with a steady light east wind.
We're getting some drizzle here as well. Humid, too.
Quoting 849. Llamaluvr:

why is it taking so long???
Because the Moon is blue.
Very quiet in here tonight!!!

620
WFUS54 KLIX 170206
TORLIX
LAC063-091-105-170230-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0026.141117T0206Z-141117T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
806 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 803 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WALKER...OR
8 MILES EAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MONTPELIER BY 830 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3078 9065 3064 9049 3039 9081 3052 9095
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 225DEG 26KT 3053 9080



CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
46/70 today. Fair until late afternoon when a very thick layer of clouds and mist came in from the east. About 60 now with a steady light east wind.
68 and 41 here. All the rain is still north of Montgomery, as it has been all day. We are getting good south wind which has brought the temperature up from 60 to 64 with a dewpoint of 59. I was looking at the tornado warned cell in Mississippi and it certainly looks unremarkable, with a cloud top of 17,000 feet and no signs of rotation I can see. All the convective activity is in two skinny lines from eastern LA into south central MS and western LA NE to north central MS. You can see two skinny lines of convection on this lighting map -



Kind of a strange convective setup. I don't know why the convection isn't more general, and there's no lighting reported with the rain north AL. This whole setup is not good for me getting anywhere near the 1"-2" that was forecast. These fronts with the skinny southern ends always get chewed up before they get SE AL. I hope I get at least a half inch but that's starting to look more doubtful.
216
WFUS54 KLIX 170228
TORLIX
LAC063-091-105-170315-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0027.141117T0228Z-141117T0315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
828 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREENSBURG...
TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF AMITE...

* UNTIL 915 PM CST

* AT 826 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A TORNADO NEAR MONTPELIER...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMITE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
AMITE AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREENSBURG BY 845 PM CST...
ROSELAND BY 850 PM CST...
KENTWOOD BY 910 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Severe weather in MS & LA..

0530 PM TORNADO 3 NNW TYLERTOWN 31.16N 90.16W
11/16/2014 WALTHALL MS EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED REPORT FROM HIGHWAY PATROL OF A
BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MS
HIGHWAY 583 AND HIGHWAY 98. NO DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS
TIME.



0750 PM TORNADO 5 SE DENHAM SPRINGS 30.42N 90.90W
11/16/2014 LIVINGSTON LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS OFFICE RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A BRIEF
TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO FENCES
.
Whatever happened to that potential STS that was supposed to head this way around this time?
Quoting 780. opal92nwf:


I don't know what this area is going to do when we get some 1980's type freezes. Since then, the number of marginally hardy palms and tropicals planted has been extensive. If it does happen again, this part of Florida is going to completely lose most of its "tropical" landscaping. I think there are only about 5 types of palms alone that can withstand temps like that. You look around yards in older neighborhoods around here, and the only old, mature palms you see are Sabal palms (state tree) and pindo palms.


You should see Orlando. The number of truly tropical/frost sensitive plants has increased to the point where they are seen in abundance in almost every yard in the metro area and the suburbs. This is thanks to the fact that the urban heat island seldom allows the city to freeze, nowadays. The tropical/subtropicals in North FL tend to be the kind that come back from the roots. Palms, like queen palms, are hardy down to between 18-23F, so particularly coastal areas of the FL Panhandle can keep these alive for a number of years between killing freezes. I hear that the 1989 freeze killed almost all the queen palms in Orlando. I can't fathom this happening these days, as queen palms weren't even damaged here by the 2010 cold.

This cold blast certainly won't bring any freezing temperatures to this area, though I would say upper 30s aren't out of the question.
12Z Euro has 7" to 9" of rain across the FL Big Bend the next 10 days. Crazy to see rainfall projections this high in November. Wet Season sure but not November. Sure sign that El-Nino is here.



863. vis0
Please check more recent frames NOT INCLUDED (recommend Wxu's or Canada's eastern coast sat seems a thin stream of low level moisture is rapidly heading towards NW Fl. from N. GOMX)

CREDIT:: NOAA/NWS presented through erau.edu
SUBJECT:: 20141116 Winter Storm (name:: warm care get alpha / names, cold core receive numeric / numbers representing the D&T. Say hello to the Winter storm of Nov 16th 2014. want an explanation please read VIDs description at youtube)

Frames are slower at first as included 12 hrs or so of pre storm frames which are 5 hrs apart for those that like to learn how from seemingly nothing comes something.
BTW, we have progressed to actual rain now; looks like it's coming in on an easterly flow. Doesn't look like it will last very long...
865. vis0

Quoting 756. barbamz:

Hi over there in your US-freezer from still quite warm Germany ... Guess you're tired of the usual flooding news from Southern Europe, nevertheless ...


Observed rainfall the last 24h in Europe in certain stations (click to enlarge). Source.

Click to get some pictures:
Floods bring devastation to parts of Italy and France
BBC News video report, 3 hours ago
Storms and heavy rains have battered parts of western Europe, causing a number of fatalities.
Three members of one family were killed in the south of France when their car was swept away.
In Italy, some towns have been evacuated after heavy rain burst river banks and flooded streets.
Catharina Moh reports.


Currently low "Thea" is circling over our heads. Forecast map for tomorrow:



Saved loop.

As I'm tired from an exhibition this weekend I wish you all a nice Sunday afternoon/evening.
shrt re: Thank You
loong reply:: Real fans of weather activities therefore luv to observe & learn will never get tired of taking in good information from around the world, as you and several other wxu regulars bring
Quoting 852. PedleyCA:

Very quiet in here tonight!!!
'

What's up Ped?

29F and no snow or rain... None planned for tomorrow either... I guess if I really wanted a white xmas I should have moved near Washi...
Quoting 866. Dakster:

'

What's up Ped?

29F and no snow or rain... None planned for tomorrow either... I guess if I really wanted a white xmas I should have moved near Washi...


Only about 20% of Christmas days here in DC have a snow cover (more than 90% coverage)

Wishes are different from reality.
Quoting 793. TimTheWxMan:



I'm a lifelong St. Louisan, but hope to live in the southeast once i graduate college. However, for some reason my family insists i stay in St. Louis (since there are some GIS jobs here, but face it, a lot of young adults are moving to places like raleigh, nashville, atlanta, charlotte, jacksonville, etc.). Honestly, i don't enjoy GIS as much as i enjoy weather. However, the university i go to doesn't have much in terms of meteorology. :/


With a good College record you should be able to transfer if you want a Meteorology major. I had no trouble transferring from VPI to PSU in 1978 with a 3.3 first two years GPA. Transfer was my plan all along. As a Virginia resident I didn't want to pay out of state tuition any longer than I had to.

However a strong emphasis on mathematics and physics is also excellent preparation for graduate study in meteorology. You don't need to be an undergraduate met major to get into grad school. You do need a solid undergraduate record of success.

And I think St Louis University (not sure of the exact name) has a met program. One of my FSU professors was from there and he was sharp.
Quoting 862. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro has 7" to 9" of rain across the FL Big Bend the next 10 days. Crazy to see rainfall projections this high in November. Wet Season sure but not November. Sure sign that El-Nino is here.






THe FL panhandle is wet even in non El Nino winters. Spring and Fall are dry there but there is a second wet season in winter. As you know though peninsula winters ON AVERAGE are dry.

You're right though this is a little early.

Quoting 866. Dakster:

'

What's up Ped?

29F and no snow or rain... None planned for tomorrow either... I guess if I really wanted a white xmas I should have moved near Washi...

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:29 PM PST on November 16, 2014
Clear
62.1 °F / 16.7 °C
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: -3 °F / -19 °C
Wind: 7.0 mph / 11.3 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 23.0 mph / 37.0 km/h
Dry and Windy, and in the 60's
Quoting 870. PedleyCA:


Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:29 PM PST on November 16, 2014
Clear
62.1 °F / 16.7 °C
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: -3 °F / -19 °C
Wind: 7.0 mph / 11.3 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 23.0 mph / 37.0 km/h
Dry and Windy, and in the 60's


What the heck 7% relative humidity with temps in the 60's and a negative dewpoint? My skin would be bleeding from that amount of dryness, that's terribly dry, might as well be in the Arabian desert.
872. flsky
And so the fires begin....
Quoting 870. PedleyCA:


Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:29 PM PST on November 16, 2014
Clear
62.1 °F / 16.7 °C
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: -3 °F / -19 °C
Wind: 7.0 mph / 11.3 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 23.0 mph / 37.0 km/h
Dry and Windy, and in the 60's
Quoting 869. georgevandenberghe:


THe FL panhandle is wet even in non El Nino winters. Spring and Fall are dry there but there is a second wet season in winter. As you know though peninsula winters ON AVERAGE are dry.

You're right though this is a little early.



Due to copyright issues I can't post the image from weatherbell but a very wet pattern is underway for the SE US including all of FL. Also on the Euro Ensembles they show 1" to 2" of snow across the SE US as well from Central Alabama extending across GA with snow even getting close to New Orleans Thanksgiving week.

Here's a snippit from JB earlier.

A Control out of Control (Referring to the Euro control run)

November 16 06:22 PM

I planted a seed yesterday on the idea of a major storm in the east around Thanksgiving weekend. There is some warmer coming across the country, but the ECMWF beats it back and reverses it. In fact if the ECMWF is right, then the ideas that this November would challenge 1976 ( and 2000) had merit.

Longwave trough pattern in around 8 days. Might not end well for somebody. We'll see if anything of note could materialize in the next few days.

ECMWF


GFS 1


GFS 2
Quoting 872. flsky:

And so the fires begin....



I sure hope not. Haven't heard of any yet.
Quoting 874. GeorgiaStormz:
Longwave trough pattern in around 8 days. Might not end well for somebody. We'll see if anything of note could materialize in the next few days.

ECMWF


GFS 1


GFS 2


You should see the Euro EPS runs past day 10. The Euro just crushes the SE US with serious amounts of snow infact up to 2 feet in areas of the SE with snow even reaching Tallahassee Thanksgiving week. Euro has been too consistent with this so it bears watching.

I am tempted to just post the run and risk getting a ban as this is something I've never seen on any model in the SE US in November. To get feet of snow this early is unheard of anytime of year across the South. Also during this sametime the Euro hammers FL with what looks like flooding rains.

Quoting 876. StormTrackerScott:



You should see the Euro EPS runs past day 10. The Euro just crushes the SE US with serious amounts of snow infact up to 2 feet in areas of the SE with snow even reaching Tallahassee Thanksgiving week. Euro has been too consistent with this so it bears watching.




Haha, I couldn't care less about Euro EPS past day 10. Anyway, I do hope it snows this winter. Still waiting on that '93 redo.
Quoting 855. sar2401:

68 and 41 here. All the rain is still north of Montgomery, as it has been all day. We are getting good south wind which has brought the temperature up from 60 to 64 with a dewpoint of 59. I was looking at the tornado warned cell in Mississippi and it certainly looks unremarkable, with a cloud top of 17,000 feet and no signs of rotation I can see. All the convective activity is in two skinny lines from eastern LA into south central MS and western LA NE to north central MS. You can see two skinny lines of convection on this lighting map -



Kind of a strange convective setup. I don't know why the convection isn't more general, and there's no lighting reported with the rain north AL. This whole setup is not good for me getting anywhere near the 1"-2" that was forecast. These fronts with the skinny southern ends always get chewed up before they get SE AL. I hope I get at least a half inch but that's starting to look more doubtful.



I think you're underestimating the threat. First of all, remember that as we head into the cooler season, the troposphere becomes more shallow, and what would be considered sufficient instability is also relatively lower. As we head into the winter, it takes lower CAPE, less total moisture, and not as tall or intense of thunderstorms to produce severe weather. For example, in the cooler season, CAPE of 1000 along with sufficient shear, is plenty enough for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, even though that isn't much to show if it were August. Also, PW can be lower and be relatively just as deep as the summer. If the atmosphere is cooler and more shallow as it is in the cooler season, a PW of 1.5-1.75 is just as impressive as PW's over 2 inches in the summer.

As I mentioned, thunderstorms also don't need to be as a deep or have as much lightning either for the same reasons I mentioned. Also, some of those thunderstorms in Louisiana are definitely taller than 17,000 ft. There have already been tornado reports, so this system does mean business, and is definitely verifying on target as forecast:


Also, check out the New Orleans sounding, looks pretty impressive for a November evening if you ask me:



1-3 km shear, CAPE, and moisture levels definitely support a chance of a few severe cells in the New Orleans area this evening.


The longer duration of return flow in the Panhandle means our risk is a bit higher with dynamics remaining just as strong here with the system tomorrow as they are in that area. Overall the risk isn't anything extreme, but the slight risk by the SPC certainly makes sense to me, read the Tallahassee forecast discussion, the model forecast parameters look pretty respectable.

I suspect you will probably be a bit too far inland to get enough instability to support more than rain and occasional lightning.
879. flsky
Many times they start in earnest in Nov.

Quoting 875. PedleyCA:



I sure hope not. Haven't heard of any yet.
Here is the upgraded GFS run below. Notice all the rain in FL thru 10 days.

Quoting 877. GeorgiaStormz:


Haha, I couldn't care less about Euro EPS past day 10. Anyway, I do hope it snows this winter. Still waiting on that '93 redo.


I agree with you but the Euro has been consistent in showing snow very deep into the Southern US Thanksgiving week not just on its ensembles but on its operational runs from time to time as well.

Euro EPS has JB said is out of control.
GFS looking similar to the Euro control run.



Alright you see the dip above right now look at these departures from average during that sametime.



Now look at all of this rain falling into a very cold enviroment.

Quoting 880. StormTrackerScott:

Here is the upgraded GFS run below. Notice all the rain in FL thru 10 days.


All the rain? Looks like .1-1.25 for over 1/2 the state, and some isolated areas getting 3-4"+. That's over 10 days. All assuming that model is correct, which it probably isn't. Normal in November is 2-4" in most of the state. This doesn't seem like a wildly exuberant model, especially for 1/2 the population down south.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I think you're underestimating the threat. First of all, remember that as we head into the cooler season, the troposphere becomes more shallow, and what would be considered sufficient instability is also relatively lower. As we head into the winter, it takes lower CAPE, less total moisture, and not as tall or intense of thunderstorms to produce severe weather. For example, in the cooler season, CAPE of 1000 along with sufficient shear, is plenty enough for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, even though that isn't much to show if it were August. Also, PW can be lower and be relatively just as deep as the summer. If the atmosphere is cooler and more shallow as it is in the cooler season, a PW of 1.5-1.75 is just as impressive as PW's over 2 inches in the summer.

As I mentioned, thunderstorms also don't need to be as a deep or have as much lightning either for the same reasons I mentioned. Also, some of those thunderstorms in Louisiana are definitely taller than 17,000 ft. There have already been tornado reports, so this system does mean business, and is definitely verifying on target as forecast:


Also, check out the New Orleans sounding, looks pretty impressive for a November evening if you ask me:



1-3 km shear, CAPE, and moisture levels definitely support a chance of a few severe cells in the New Orleans area this evening.


The longer duration of return flow in the Panhandle means our risk is a bit higher with dynamics remaining just as strong here with the system tomorrow as they are in that area. Overall the risk isn't anything extreme, but the slight risk by the SPC certainly makes sense to me, read the Tallahassee forecast discussion, the model forecast parameters look pretty respectable.

I suspect you will probably be a bit too far inland to get enough instability to support more than rain and occasional lightning.
Yeah, I understand all that, and Louisiana and south central MS are better positioned for convective storms than my area. The SPC does have me in the marginal risk zone for the rest of today and tomorrow. My pressure continues to drop and I'm still getting gusty south winds but I'm afraid I'm going to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. The rain shield north of me continues to move NE and not S, so the chances of me seeing anything from that are rapidly approaching zero. The only hope for rain is the deepening low to the west but it's not moving inland as predicted. It looks like it's going to hug the Gulf coast all the way over to the Big Bend. That increases your chance for thunderstorms and maybe a few strong to severe storms. Unfortunately, if the convection gets going in the Panhandle like I think it will, it's going to cut off SE AL from any chance of convection and, with that, my chances of any significant rain. I hope I'm wrong, but this has been a repetitive pattern this year, with rain to my north and thunderstorms to my south and me stranded in the middle with a forlorn stare up at the clouds. :-)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Haha, I couldn't care less about Euro EPS past day 10. Anyway, I do hope it snows this winter. Still waiting on that '93 redo.
Wait...I'm going to get crushed by snow on Thanksgiving? Fer cryin' out loud, I can't even get any rain yet. I guess I'd better check at the hardware and see if this winter's supply of snow blowers has come in yet.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
All the rain? Looks like .1-1.25 for over 1/2 the state, and some isolated areas getting 3-4"+. That's over 10 days. All assuming that model is correct, which it probably isn't. Normal in November is 2-4" in most of the state. This doesn't seem like a wildly exuberant model, especially for 1/2 the population down south.
Geez, why can't the GFS show that for me? Even if it never happens, at least it will give me hope for the next 10 days. With a total rainfall of 0.21" for the month, I'll take anything the GFS wants to dish out.
Quoting Jedkins01:


What the heck 7% relative humidity with temps in the 60's and a negative dewpoint? My skin would be bleeding from that amount of dryness, that's terribly dry, might as well be in the Arabian desert.
Notice the east wind and wind speeds. The Santa Ana winds are cranking up, and that downsloping just wrings out the airmass before it gets to the coast. The humidity is already down to 17% in Avalon, Catalina Island, 26 miles offshore. This was the time I hated when I lived in California as the Santa Ana comes in the fall before the (usual) winter rains, when everything is already tinder dry and just waiting to catch fire. With the prolonged drought, it's just that much worse. I hope southern California can get through this one without any major fires. I've lost my house twice, once to a tornado down here and one from a wildfire in southern California. Tornadoes are not fun, but a wildfire is way worse, as you watch the fire for hours before you evacuate and then hope your house is still there when you get back.
Quoting 885. sar2401:

Yeah, I understand all that, and Louisiana and south central MS are better positioned for convective storms than my area. The SPC does have me in the marginal risk zone for the rest of today and tomorrow. My pressure continues to drop and I'm still getting gusty south winds but I'm afraid I'm going to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. The rain shield north of me continues to move NE and not S, so the chances of me seeing anything from that are rapidly approaching zero. The only hope for rain is the deepening low to the west but it's not moving inland as predicted. It looks like it's going to hug the Gulf coast all the way over to the Big Bend. That increases your chance for thunderstorms and maybe a few strong to severe storms. Unfortunately, if the convection gets going in the Panhandle like I think it will, it's going to cut off SE AL from any chance of convection and, with that, my chances of any significant rain. I hope I'm wrong, but this has been a repetitive pattern this year, with rain to my north and thunderstorms to my south and me stranded in the middle with a forlorn stare up at the clouds. :-)


Yeah unfortunately I think you're right, its hard for instability to penetrate very far inland from the coast following a round of very dry and cold air like we recently had. I've definitely noticed the same thing, this type of setup usually leads to a strong convection hogging all the moisture and energy leaving areas up by your area in just the stratiform rain area.

You never know though, this system might have enough lift to produce elevated instability. Moist air, even if shallow, when force lifted by a strong low, cools an air layer significantly with time causing the airmass to gradually become more unstable.
Quoting 887. sar2401:

Geez, why can't the GFS show that for me? Even if it never happens, at least it will give me hope for the next 10 days. With a total rainfall of 0.21" for the month, I'll take anything the GFS wants to dish out.


Were running at a miserable 0.04 for the month, and that fell on the 2nd, its been 15 days since then, and that 0.04 is all we've had since Mid October when we had that massive 4.7 inch total. While that was great, seeing that we've only had literally 0.04 in the last 4 weeks is terrible. Grass has turned brown as a result of that combined with all the dry air. We need that rain tomorrow badly here too.
Quoting 880. StormTrackerScott:

Here is the upgraded GFS run below. Notice all the rain in FL thru 10 days.




The second half of October through now has been very dry, boring and stagnant. Looks like the second half of November is featuring wild cold outbreaks and significant rainfall. I'm all for these changes.

Its too early to tell if this next system will be this crazy, but seeing how strongly amplified the upper pattern has trended recently that has led to what we've had now with a strong squall line followed by an arctic outbreak, it's more believable than usual.
Quoting 870. PedleyCA:


Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:29 PM PST on November 16, 2014
Clear
62.1 °F / 16.7 °C
Clear
Humidity: 7%
Dew Point: -3 °F / -19 °C
Wind: 7.0 mph / 11.3 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 23.0 mph / 37.0 km/h
Dry and Windy, and in the 60's


Those stats look dreamy to me! LOL Need somewhere ok in the world with predominantly that weather and I'd be very happy :O:
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Those stats look dreamy to me! LOL Need somewhere ok in the world with predominantly that weather and I'd be very happy :O:


Yuck, bone dry. I very much like the dreary weather we get up in the Northeast. Maybe I'm alone in that regard.
980mb low at the tip of Greenland.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah unfortunately I think you're right, its hard for instability to penetrate very far inland from the coast following a round of very dry and cold air like we recently had. I've definitely noticed the same thing, this type of setup usually leads to a strong convection hogging all the moisture and energy leaving areas up by your area in just the stratiform rain area.

You never know though, this system might have enough lift to produce elevated instability. Moist air, even if shallow, when force lifted by a strong low, cools an air layer significantly with time causing the airmass to gradually become more unstable.
The low is definitely deepening rapidly. I'm down to 29.74 from 29.86 just two hours ago so that supports my idea that the low is tracking more south than north. Now it looks like another small area of low pressure is trying to develop in the Gulf off the western Panhandle and some convection has already started. The SPC now has us in the "slight" zone, extending to you, S GA and up into SC. A round of convection tonight looks like a good bet for the Panhandle over to the Big Bend. If the low can move even 40 miles inland then I have a chance to get in on the show. Otherwise, it's high and dry again. With the paucity of rain we've both had, we need those heavy rains the GFS keeps predicting.

EDIT: Dang! I'm now down to 29.71, .03" in the last half hour. Something is happening a lot closer to home than that low to the west. The one developing in the Gulf is causing the drop in pressure, and it's pushing 25,000 to 30,000 foot tops into Panama City. I know the models don't have a handle on this development and I suspect the NWS is just now sitting up and paying notice. Might be a more interesting night than I initially thought.

EDIT 2: Muh oh. Just got a tornado watch. That low in the Gulf is really developing. The north half of the front is really starting to fall apart but now it's the southern end that strengthening. Very strange to have a tornado watch and a freeze warning within 24 hours of each other.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Hurricane Warning
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ADJALI (01-20142015)
10:00 AM RET November 17 2014
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Adjali (988 hPa) located at 9.2S 67.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 10.1S 67.8E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS 11.2S 68.3E - 75 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS 12.7S 68.3E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS 14.2S 67.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Modérée Tropicale)

Additional Information
====================
Adjali is a small system. The intensification seems to be less rapid for the last 6 hours. Dvorak estimation at 4.0- is consistent with KNES (4.0), PGTW (3.5) and ADT (3.5-).

Environmental conditions remains good: wet environment within low and mid tropospheric layers and good low level convergence. The vertical wind shear is weak near the upper level ridge and the upper level divergence is good poleward.

During the next 24 hours, the system is expected to track slowly south southeastward on the southwestern edge of a near equatorial mid level ridge. On this track, the environmental conditions remains good or nearly excellent today.

Tuesday, Adjali should decelerate on a southward then south southwestward track under the influence of the subtropical mid-level high pressures rebuilding in the south-west. The maximum intensity should occur during this day.

Tuesday morning, environmental conditions are expected to begin to deteriorate with cooler sea surface temperatures, dry air within mid tropospheric layers and a strengthening northerly to northwesterly constraint.

From Wednesday, the system should adopt a southwestward then west southwestward track on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures and continue to weaken.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Quoting 894. Skyepony:

980mb low at the tip of Greenland.




wound pretty tight .. bet the ice is blowing around on the cap .. visibility is probably low if those winds transfer down to the ground ..
Quoting 895. sar2401:

The low is definitely deepening rapidly. I'm down to 29.74 from 29.86 just two hours ago so that supports my idea that the low is tracking more south than north. Now it looks like another small area of low pressure is trying to develop in the Gulf off the western Panhandle and some convection has already started. The SPC now has us in the "slight" zone, extending to you, S GA and up into SC. A round of convection tonight looks like a good bet for the Panhandle over to the Big Bend. If the low can move even 40 miles inland then I have a chance to get in on the show. Otherwise, it's high and dry again. With the paucity of rain we've both had, we need those heavy rains the GFS keeps predicting.

EDIT: Dang! I'm now down to 29.71, .03" in the last half hour. Something is happening a lot closer to home than that low to the west. The one developing in the Gulf is causing the drop in pressure, and it's pushing 25,000 to 30,000 foot tops into Panama City. I know the models don't have a handle on this development and I suspect the NWS is just now sitting up and paying notice. Might be a more interesting night than I initially thought.

EDIT 2: Muh oh. Just got a tornado watch. That low in the Gulf is really developing. The north half of the front is really starting to fall apart but now it's the southern end that strengthening. Very strange to have a tornado watch and a freeze warning within 24 hours of each other.


Yeah interesting indeed, and yeah, it feels odd having a hard freeze watch and a tornado watch. I guess this is what its like to live in Oklahoma right? lol Really though, the NWS forecasters in Tallahassee sure have it busy right now, this is quite mess of weather. This is the kind of weather the chamber of commerce in Florida does not want tourists hearing about. They don;t want tourists hearing about tornado watches followed by temps well below freezing when its advertised to only be warm and fair 24/7 outside of the summer. Heck ,they even advertise that during the summer too, lol.

I'm starting to wonder how this will compare to the severe event we had last month the downed a historical Oak tree on campus, blocking a main road for some time until it was removed. We had 4.7 inches with that event. Obviously that most likely won't happen here, that had a very tropical airmass, and was moving very slow. This event could pack a much needed inch or so around here. Although, I'm wondering if its severe threat will rival that last event, which caused quite a mess around here.

The NWS seems to be painting it as noteworthy, and tornado warnings are already active with several cells showing rotation as they move onshore in the Central Panhandle.

000
FXUS62 KTAE 170751
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
251 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2014

...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Today...

...A Hard Freeze with Record Cold Temperatures Expected This Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional 04Z surface analysis showed an area of low pressure on the
south-central border between Mississippi and Alabama, with a cold
front extending southwestward from it across Mississippi and
Louisiana and out over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A warm front
extends eastward from the low, across southern Alabama and Georgia.
Southerly flow out ahead of the cold front/south of the warm front
has brought a return of warm, moist air to the area. With this
return flow, we have already seen the lowest temperatures we will
see for the night and surface dew points have already risen back into
the 60s. Scattered convection in this warm sector will be seen
overnight, with the main line of storms associated with this front
moving west to east across the area after sunrise.

The models continue to show a fairly tight gradient of SBCAPE along
the coast, with 500-1000 J/kg likely along the coastline, with
higher values offshore and lower values further inland. In addition
to this available energy, we`ll also have a good amount of
shear. GFS 0-1 km shear will be around 30-35 kt today ahead of the
front with 0-6 km shear around 50-60 kt. The environment is
favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms. The main
threat for severe weather today will be damaging straight-line
winds, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. SPC
continues to show a slight risk for these severe storms, with the
higher likelihood of these storms closer to the coastline with
instability is higher. A tornado watch is in effect through 9 AM
CST or 10 AM EST west of a line from Albany to Tallahassee.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The front should clear southeast of our zones early in the period
taking any precipitation with it. An arctic air mass will then
quickly make its way across the region. By daybreak, freezing
temperatures will have made it as far southeast as VLD and inland
portions of the FL Panhandle. Coffee County will actually flirt
with hard freeze criteria, but should fall just shy of duration
requirements. We upgraded all counties that were in the freeze watch
to a freeze warning. Total freeze durations will range from about 2
hours along the southeast boundary of the warning to about 8 hours
in Coffee County. When wind is factored in, wind chill readings will
drop into the teens northwest of a line from Albany to Marianna to
Destin. A wind chill advisory will be issued later today. Max temps
will be quite cold by November standards. Look for mid 40s across
Southeast AL tapering gradually upward to the lower 50s in Dixie
County. The predicted high of 50 at TLH would tie it for the 4th
coolest max temperature ever recorded within the first 20 days of
November. This will set the stage for a widespread hard freeze
Tuesday night and a hard freeze watch has been issued for the entire
forecast area. Min temps by daybreak Wednesday will mainly be in the
upper teens and lower 20s. This is exceptionally cold for November.
In fact, the predicted low of 20 degrees at TLH would be the coldest
temperature ever recorded that early in the season. Total freeze
durations for this event will be as long as 14 hours well inland
with even the Panhandle beaches getting a few hours of freezing
temperatures. Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 50s north to
the mid 50s south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
We will see a moderating trend in temps through this period as the
upper trough lifts away. In fact, we will actually see some upper
ridging by Saturday. We should see one more freeze Wednesday night
with min temps increase by a few degrees each night after that.
Daytime highs will increase from the lower to mid 60s on Thursday to
the lower 70s on Sunday. Surface high pressure will be in control as
well keeping rain chances at a minimum through Saturday. However, by
Saturday night and Sunday, another energetic system will be
approaching from the west and initial indications are that there
will be some potential for severe weather with this system as well.
Tornadoes have been hitting Panama City this morning. This looks serious.


0812 1 S LAIRD BAY FL 3030 8592 TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE DETECTED VIA DUAL-POL RADAR. (TAE)

0851 1 S LAIRD BAY FL 3030 8592 TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE DETECTED VIA DUAL-POL RADAR. (TAE)


Just about every storm is rotating out ahead of the main line this morning across the FL Panhandle.

With a good morning to you all here's the latest from our continent.


Storm Forecast, Valid: Mon 17 Nov 2014 06:00 to Tue 18 Nov 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Mon 17 Nov 2014 02:48, Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for Corsica, parts of Italy and western Balkan mainly for excessive convective precipitation and tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS
While high pressure reigns over Russia and Scandinavia, a large upper low controls and area from southern UK to Albania. Surface low pressure centers will be situated in the English Channel, the other moving south of France over Italy to Austria. A cold front moves across the Pyrenees during the early morning and should trigger widespread convection as steep mid level lapse rates meet moist low-level Mediterranean air. Several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE would be able to develop. The strongest lifting is at the cold front which is backed by ascent from advection of mid altitude PV and a 60 m/s jet streak at 300 hPa. ....

More see link above.

Landslide kills two as storm death toll hits 11
The Local (Italy) published: 16 Nov 2014 11:37 GMT 01:00
A landslide triggered by torrential rain engulfed a house on the shores of Italy's Lake Maggiore on Sunday, killing a pensioner and his granddaughter in what a neighbour described as a "horrific" tragedy ....

Mudslides kill four in Swiss-Italian border area
The Local (Switzerland), Published: 16 Nov 2014 16:56 GMT 01:00
At least four people were killed as landslides triggered by torrential rain slammed into houses and buildings on either side of the Swiss Italian border on Sunday, a day after floods in southern France killed five people. ...

Five die in French storms over black weekend
The Local (France), published: 17 Nov 2014 09:58 GMT 01:00
At least five people were killed as storms lashed southern France between Friday and Saturday, including a mother and her two young sons after their car was swept away in severe floods. Killer storms were also reported in Italy and Switzerland. ....



From a photo gallery with report of BBC News this morning: "Deadly mudslides engulf homes in Switzerland and Italy".


Current could top temperatures.

All the best to dear Italy and adjacent countries!
902. VR46L
Quoting 900. StormTrackerScott:

Just about every storm is rotating out ahead of the main line this morning across the FL Panhandle.




Scott ,
Going to give you some praise , you usually catch severe weather well in advance of the pack !

Tornado warnings in southern Georgia, Alabama, along with Florida Panhandle.
Quoting 903. Sfloridacat5:
Tornado warnings in southern Georgia, Alabama, along with Florida Panhandle.


Lots of damage being reported now.


1020 3 SSW BLOUNTSTOWN AIRPO CALHOUN FL 3041 8506 DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND PERIMETER FENCE AT CALHOUN CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE STATE PRISON (TAE)

1045 SYCAMORE GADSDEN FL 3058 8482 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN GADSDEN COUNTY AT INTERSECTION OF SYCAMORE AND WINDING CREEK RD. (TAE)

Quoting 902. VR46L:


Scott ,
Going to give you some praise , you usually catch severe weather well in advance of the pack !



Thank you, but this more than I even expected.

Uh-oh, looks like a tornado hit a state prison in the Panhandle:

1020 3 SSW BLOUNTSTOWN AIRPO CALHOUN FL 3041 8506 DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS AND PERIMETER FENCE AT CALHOUN CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTE STATE PRISON (TAE)
0Z Euro has 5" to 9" of rain for C, N FL, & the Panhandle from Sunday thru next week.

Upgraded GFS is similar to the Euro.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 610 AM UNTIL
200 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 552...

DISCUSSION...LOW-CAPE/STG-SHEAR REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING/EXPANDING ENEWD FROM NERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION ACROSS WW
AREA THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...AS STG DEEP-LAYER WINDS OVERLIE
INLAND PENETRATION OF HIGHER-THETAE MARINE AIR MASS. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SUPERCELL/TORNADO AND SMALL-BOW POTENTIAL
WITH TIME AND FROM W-E...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...EDWARDS
Definitely 50% more lightning around my neighborhood here in the last couple hours!
912. MahFL
Quoting 911. PensacolaDoug:

Definitely 50% more lightning around my neighborhood here in the last couple hours!


Hey Doug, it's that global warming, lol.



heavy rain at my house at 7am this morning!!
noaa website been acting up this early morning. it seems on track now.
Quoting 902. VR46L:


Scott ,
Going to give you some praise , you usually catch severe weather well in advance of the pack !



How's your dad better?
Nice rain in Macon, Georgia right now.
Quoting 876. StormTrackerScott:



You should see the Euro EPS runs past day 10. The Euro just crushes the SE US with serious amounts of snow infact up to 2 feet in areas of the SE with snow even reaching Tallahassee Thanksgiving week. Euro has been too consistent with this so it bears watching.

I am tempted to just post the run and risk getting a ban as this is something I've never seen on any model in the SE US in November. To get feet of snow this early is unheard of anytime of year across the South. Also during this sametime the Euro hammers FL with what looks like flooding rains.




If you posted it you could get Weatherbell cut off from their Euro data feed.

For an epic event look at the Thanksgiving storm 1950. This produced incredible record November cold across the upper Southeast to the Gulf Coast but no snow for FL, it was more a cold event there. But it was an epic snowstorm in the Appalachians.
It's supposed to get down to 25F here tonight, and that's definitely believable with 20 mph northwesterly winds ushering in cold air followed by clear skies and light winds.

That would be 4F below the all-time record low of 29F for Baton Rouge set in 1920.

This is SOME airmass. It wasn't even this cold this early last year.
Also, I highly doubt there's any way to actively enforce the written clause not to publicly share ECMWF data with people that aren't subscribers. At least I've never felt any consequence by doing it, and I account share with close friends all the time.
Quoting 920. KoritheMan:
Also, I highly doubt there's any way to actively enforce the written clause not to publicly share ECMWF data with people that aren't subscribers. At least I've never felt any consequence by doing it, and I account share with close friends all the time.


If you or anybody else wants me to share then e-mail me.

Here's the nino index that CPC uis using in their update this morning. 5 weeks now nino 3.4 has been above 0.5C.

Nino 1&2: 0.9C
Nino 3: 0.9C
Nino 3.4: 0.8C
Nino 4: 0.9C



Quoting 919. KoritheMan:

It's supposed to get down to 25F here tonight, and that's definitely believable with 20 mph northwesterly winds ushering in cold air followed by clear skies and light winds.

That would be 4F below the all-time record low of 29F for Baton Rouge set in 1920.

This is SOME airmass. It wasn't even this cold this early last year.


Looking at an all day freeze tomorrow in DC metro area which is rare in November, followed by possible teens Wed AM. Lotta plants I have to move to the garage a month early.. just dawning on me how much of an annoying hassle this is going to be.
There is a reason D.C drivers are one of the worst in the nation and every time it rains it proves it.Jesus these people can't drive around here even if their life depended on it.And when it snows?.Don't even waste your time going out.Stay at home and avoid the road at ALL COST!.
Quoting 924. washingtonian115:

There is a reason D.C drivers are one of the worst in the nation and every time it rains it proves it.Jesus these people can't drive around here even if their life depended on it.And when it snows?.Don't even waste your time going out.Stay at home and avoid the road at ALL COST!.


It is a nationwide reality that the drivers in (insert residence here) are the worst in the nation. Analogously every city in the U.S. except a band along MT, MN, ND border with Canada and the ones in the Rockies and Pacific NW is the
"pollen capitol of the country"

926. MahFL
Quoting 919. KoritheMan:

This is SOME airmass. It wasn't even this cold this early last year.


Was is supposed to be ?
Quoting 925. georgevandenberghe:



It is a nationwide reality that the drivers in (insert residence here) are the worst in the nation. Analogously every city in the U.S. except a band along MT, MN, ND border with Canada and the ones in the Rockies and Pacific NW is the
"pollen capitol of the country"


D.C motorist are aggressive horrible drivers.I don't go out when it's snowing unless it's absolutely necessary.During the snow storms this past winter I could almost guarantee a accident on my street.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


It is a nationwide reality that the drivers in (insert residence here) are the worst in the nation. Analogously every city in the U.S. except a band along MT, MN, ND border with Canada and the ones in the Rockies and Pacific NW is the
"pollen capitol of the country"



One major issue across the S.E. over to the southern Plains (Texas/Oklahoma) is that pretty much no one uses snow tires. It just doesn't snow often enough to warrant spending the money for extra set of tires.
Then when you get just a tiny bit of snow it causes major issues.
Yesterday, even being a Sunday (light traffic day) Oklahoma City had all kinds of problems dealing with a couple inches of snow.

929. MahFL
Quoting 928. Sfloridacat5:



One major issue across the S.E. over to the southern Plains (Texas/Oklahoma) is that pretty much no one uses snow tires. It just doesn't snow often enough to warrant spending the money for extra set of tires.
Then when you get just a tiny bit of snow it causes major issues.
Yesterday, even being a Sunday (light traffic day) Oklahoma City had all kinds of problems dealing with a couple inches of snow.




Who switches to snow tires for a 1 or 2 day snow event ?
Quoting MahFL:


Who switches to snow tires for a 1 or 2 day snow event ?


Yeah, especially if you live in Atlanta or somewhere that sees snow maybe once each season.

Now a city like Washington D.C. gets enough snow to warrant getting some snow tires.
I know my dad used to put snow tires on our car every Winter when we lived in the D.C. area.
And boy they came in handy on several occasions. It was really hilly and down right scary when the roads where snow/ice covered.
Quoting washingtonian115:
D.C motorist are aggressive horrible drivers.I don't go out when it's snowing unless it's absolutely necessary.During the snow storms this past winter I could almost guarantee a accident on my street.


In Jersey if you're not going at least 40 in a 25 you've got five or more cars behind you angrily honking ready to run you off the road at any second, and good luck ever getting to the speed limit on the freeways. Stop and go is the norm, even on freeways heading away from NYC. And when the weather is bad, the traffic is abhorrent. Forget taxes, spreading blight, and the cold. Traffic is a serious rationale for some people fleeing the region.
Pretty good jet max heading for the west coast of FL. Norman may want to extend the Severe Weather threat further south to include all of Tampa Bay as the HRRR models are hammering the west coast of FL early this afternoon. Likely could be gusts to 60 or even 70mph with some of these storms as they roll in.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


One major issue across the S.E. over to the southern Plains (Texas/Oklahoma) is that pretty much no one uses snow tires. It just doesn't snow often enough to warrant spending the money for extra set of tires.
Then when you get just a tiny bit of snow it causes major issues.
Yesterday, even being a Sunday (light traffic day) Oklahoma City had all kinds of problems dealing with a couple inches of snow.



At the same time though, I feel like Southern cities should develop some sort of contingency plan in the rare instances they are faced with wintry weather. This "roll with the punches" approach hasn't really worked out. Maybe they're more prepared than I think, I don't know.
934. MahFL
Quoting 933. wxgeek723:



At the same time though, I feel like Southern cities should develop some sort of contingency plan in the rare instances they are faced with wintry weather. This "roll with the punches" approach hasn't really worked out. Maybe they're more prepared than I think, I don't know.


In the grand scheme of things not many people die, so it's not worth the $ investment.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Here's the nino index that CPC uis using in their update this morning. 5 weeks now nino 3.4 has been above 0.5C.

Nino 1&2: 0.9C
Nino 3: 0.9C
Nino 3.4: 0.8C
Nino 4: 0.9C





Don't mean anything it has to stay 0.5°c or above for either 3 or 5 months consecutively I don't remember if it's either 3 or 5
31.2 degrees...kinda cold this morning
northern cali
Looks like this is going to be a strong cold front! Cant believe its actually going to get cold. Though the rain is welcome, it doesnt look like a whole lot since its moving through pretty quickly. Dryness behind this front for at least a week. I dont see big totals with this.

Quoting 937. WxGuy2014:
Looks like this is going to be a strong cold front! Cant believe its actually going to get cold. Though the rain is welcome, it doesnt look like a whole lot since its moving through pretty quickly. Dryness behind this front for at least a week. I dont see big totals with this.



Wait till Sunday and beyond as the models are showing big totals from your area down into the FL Penisula. Euro has totals of 9" thru 10 days across the FL Big Bend.
Quoting 935. wunderkidcayman:



Don't mean anything it has to stay 0.5°c or above for either 3 or 5 months consecutively I don't remember if it's either 3 or 5



thats is with the CPC they can call it a EL nino at any time how ever noaa has other rules they wont call it EL nino for other 3 or 5 months
Temps could get into the upper 80's before this line arrives only adding to the instability.

Quoting 937. WxGuy2014:

Looks like this is going to be a strong cold front! Cant believe its actually going to get cold. Though the rain is welcome, it doesnt look like a whole lot since its moving through pretty quickly. Dryness behind this front for at least a week. I dont see big totals with this.

With a lot of the country in the deep freeze, this is a quick cold snap for us. Cold morning Wednesday morning then a quick warm-up. I would love to be around the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. Lake effect snows will be in upwards of 2-3 feet.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Wait till Sunday and beyond as the models are showing big totals from your area down into the FL Penisula. Euro has totals of 9" thru 10 days across the FL Big Bend.


Cool. I'll get more excited when i see the forecast in an official discussion from the NWS but for now i just stick to whats coming up 5 days or less in time since thats much more accurate. Some strong storms are rolling through now though and its hard to believe we will be seeing the 20s tonight.
The arctic air coming to the Southeast tonight into tomorrow truly is of arctic origin. Here's a HYSPLIT backwards trajectory plot for my city (Wilmington, NC):

So wunderground says the high for Wilmington tomorrow will be near 70, yet the weather channel is saying 47?
Good Morning..

SPC extended the slight risk to my area in Eastern NC





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171456Z - 171700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SOON FOR ERN NC AS UNSTABLE
AIR IS LURKING JUST OFFSHORE AND IN A FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONFLUENCE LINE OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S RAPIDLY SURGING
NWD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS WELL TO THE W. ALSO
EVIDENT IS AREAS OF HEATING ACROSS NC. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY COOL...BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND A CONTINUED ADVECTION
OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR SEVERE WIND GUST. THE MHX VWP SHOWS A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR
ROTATING STORMS...AND ACTIVITY OFFSHORE IS CELLULAR AS WELL.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2014


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 33547855 34507935 35107887 36137678 36257559 35477530
35137537 34487636 33547855
good morning...........25 degrees here in el paso at my home this morning.....27 official at the airport..glorious rain yesterday....and now dry through the weekend
Yesterday in history, Reigelwood, NC a town about 20 miles outside of Wilmington, NC was hit by a F3 tornado on November 16, 2006.

Kids were at bus stops, people were leaving for work..

8 people died that morning..

The pre-turkeyday Doom looks the worst I've seen it yet on GEOS-5..

Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:
So wunderground says the high for Wilmington tomorrow will be near 70, yet the weather channel is saying 47?

70 today.
952. MahFL
Quoting 935. wunderkidcayman:



Don't mean anything it has to stay 0.5c or above for either 3 or 5 months consecutively I don't remember if it's either 3 or 5


I read 5 seasons, which is 15 months.

"For historical purposes El Nino and La Nina episodes are defined when the threshold is
met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over lapping seasons".

Link
I read 5 seasons, which is 15 months.

it's 5 consecutive 3 months spans....such as novemeber, december, january, followed by december. january, february, and so on
Quoting 930. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, especially if you live in Atlanta or somewhere that sees snow maybe once each season.

Now a city like Washington D.C. gets enough snow to warrant getting some snow tires.
I know my dad used to put snow tires on our car every Winter when we lived in the D.C. area.
And boy they came in handy on several occasions. It was really hilly and down right scary when the roads where snow/ice covered.


I have used all season radial tires for twenty years. I don't use snow tires. If it's bad enough the radials can't get traction, I stay off the road. Radial tires first came out in the early 70s when I was in junior high and allowed much more aggressive tread designs than the old bias-ply tires prior (they also quadrupled tire life from 15K miles to 60K miles). Those were horrible in snow and my dad used chains and snow tires when I was a kid.

I did get stuck once, on Branch Avenue near the Suitland Parkway in the Nov 11, 1987 snowstorm. Took 10 minutes to get out of the hard packed ice/snow hole that I slipped into at a traffic light (no "keep moving" with
a red light going uphill]. I think my florida plates got some sympathy.
Quoting 18. Daisyworld:



Depleting the water

60 Minutes | CBS News | November 16, 2014

Lesley Stahl reports on disturbing new evidence that our planet's groundwater is being pumped out much faster than it can be replenished.


956. MahFL
Quoting 935. wunderkidcayman:



..it's 5 consecutive 3 months spans....such as novemeber, december, january, followed by december. january, february, and so on


Only 55 weeks to go then.
"U.S. Lightning Strikes May Increase 50% Due to Global Warming"

Or it may not....
Here in the Tampa area, it kinda has a spring feel today. Very warm, strong southerly flow. The SPC isn't overly concerned with Central Florida. It wouldn't surprise me to see a few severe storms pop up. 50-55mph winds and maybe some small hail. As is the case with this type of event in our area, there is always the chance of a quick spin up twister.
44F here and falling, the grumblers came thru last night...loudly.




We had one group of cells pumping out over 1000 Lightning strikes every 10 minutes.

Was awesome.
Quoting definer:
"U.S. Lightning Strikes May Increase 50% Due to Global Warming"

Or it may not....
True. But either way, the planet is--undeniably, incontrovertibly, and unquestionably--warming.
Someone failed to read da entry.

: P


"This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and the more precipitation, the more lightning."
Quoting 953. ricderr:

I read 5 seasons, which is 15 months.

it's 5 consecutive 3 months spans....such as novemeber, december, january, followed by december. january, february, and so on


I thought is was 3 consecutive 5 month spans with the months ending in the letter "R".
Quoting 960. Neapolitan:

True. But either way, the planet is--undeniably, incontrovertibly, and unquestionably--warming.


You forgot - "do you know what I mean?" :)
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:
So wunderground says the high for Wilmington tomorrow will be near 70, yet the weather channel is saying 47?
From what I see, WU calls for 46, TWC (online) calls for 46, and the NWS says 47. Was that on the TV, I take it?
Cept in a leap year,,,

Actually, there has been no El Nino in 18 years.

Its all trumped up voodoo.

Al Gore

The Sats are wrong.

Its a ruse to get yer Tax dollars too.

: P

0150 AM TSTM WND DMG SAINT STEPHENS 31.54N 88.06W
11/17/2014 WASHINGTON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE REPORTS FROM ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY INCLUDING
DAMAGED HOUSES, OVERTURNED CAMPERS, DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES AND ROADS IN THE AREA ARE BLOCKED. DAMAGE WAS
FROM JUST EAST OF CHATOM TO NEAR SAINT STEPHENS.
967. jpsb


Lots of ice and snow in the N.H. Looks more like January then November.
Quoting 951. TropicalAnalystwx13:


70 today.


It updated it to 47, must have looked at the wrong day but it was still ten degrees higher (57) on my phone. COld front coming 70 made zero sense for tomorrow.

Tornado Watch in effect, the last shower was pretty gusty.


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1025 AM UNTIL
600 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 553...

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING ALONG SSW/NNE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OVER SRN AND ERN NC MAY SOMEWHAT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGH EARLY AFTN AS SFC HEATING AND APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW OCCUR BENEATH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF FAST-MOVING TN VLY UPR
IMPULSE. COMBINATION OF 80 KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR...PW AOA 1.25
INCHES...AND LIKELY DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL BEFORE CONFLUENCE ZONE SHIFTS E OFF THE
CST LATER IN THE DAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...CORFIDI
Only 55 weeks to go then.

actually it's a three month average.......so with october coming in af 0.45C warmer....and with october at .049C.....this weeks average is again at 0.8C so this month will be well the 0.5 threshold giving the october-november three month average above the el nino threshold
Quoting 967. jpsb:



Lots of ice and snow in the N.H. Looks more like January then November.


Why of course, everyone knows were cooling as a Globe, and rapidly entering a new Maunder Minimum..or New Ice Age.

Sale on Pea coats at Wally World.

Get er done, dude.

Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


It updated it to 47, must have looked at the wrong day but it was still ten degrees higher (57) on my phone. COld front coming 70 made zero sense for tomorrow.

Tornado Watch in effect, the last shower was pretty gusty.

Left the house at 10am for Raleigh, Tornado Watch was issued at 1015am.

Should be home around 630pm, Tornado Watch expires at 6pm.

Mother Nature is playing games.
I thought is was 3 consecutive 5 month spans with the months ending in the letter "R".


i think technically you are correct
Quoting 965. Patrap:

Cept in a leap year,,,

Actually, there has been no El Nino in 18 years.

Its all trumped up voodoo.

Al Gore

The Sats are wrong.

Its a ruse to get yer Tax dollars too.

: P


Yep...The rising oceans, melting glaciers, Arctic melting, and billions of tonnes of tish pumped into the atmosphere" over the decades "on a daily basis is a figment of my liberal psychosis .
977. MahFL
Quoting 974. jpsb:

Ice Visible on Lake Superior Weeks Ahead of Schedule



Good luck telling Mother Nature she has a fixed schedule.
Quoting 973. Patrap:







Yep that cold front is going to give us a couple of cool days but back into the 70's by the weekend!
979. jpsb
Quoting 971. Patrap:



Why of course, everyone knows were cooling as a Globe, and rapidly entering a new Maunder Minimum..or New Ice Age.

Sale on Pea coats at Wally World.

Get er done, dude.




"The era of solar inactivity in the 17th Century coincided with a period of bitterly cold winters in Europe."

BBC: Is our Sun falling silent?
Quoting 975. ricderr:

I thought is was 3 consecutive 5 month spans with the months ending in the letter "R".


i think technically you are correct


Regardless, the suspense is killing me...


heavy rain moving up the east coast and some severe weather to
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1025 AM UNTIL
600 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 553...

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING ALONG SSW/NNE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OVER SRN AND ERN NC MAY SOMEWHAT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGH EARLY AFTN AS SFC HEATING AND APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW OCCUR BENEATH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF FAST-MOVING TN VLY UPR
IMPULSE. COMBINATION OF 80 KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR...PW AOA 1.25
INCHES...AND LIKELY DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL BEFORE CONFLUENCE ZONE SHIFTS E OFF THE
CST LATER IN THE DAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
I have a quivering chilled feeling Dr. Masters is about to hit the add new entry button.
Quoting 979. jpsb:



"The era of solar inactivity in the 17th Century coincided with a period of bitterly cold winters in Europe."

BBC: Is our Sun falling silent?


Let us know when there is snow on the ground in summer. That's the only way for an ice age to happen...not early snow, not early ice on a lake while the rest of the world is hotter than normal, when there is accumulated snow and ice year round, then start hyping the ice age cometh. There is no glacial expansion without accumulation year round. This is basic stuff...you seemed to have skipped over that.

Until then, you are perpetuating conspiracy and bad science. It's really stupid.
Regardless, the suspense is killing me...

the aussie mets give their update tomorrow,.,..it will be interesting to see what they say
Quoting 985. ricderr:

Regardless, the suspense is killing me...

the aussie mets give their update tomorrow,.,..it will be interesting to see what they say


Does it matter? We have our resident "expert" on this blog.
Quite a change, even for Miami. I welcome it, as it feels like Summer today!

Today 1pm:



Tomorrow 1pm:

Quoting 986. luvtogolf:



Does it matter? We have our resident "expert" on this blog.


We should create the WUBlog ENSO index, the simple mean of all forecasts of ENSO events from the blog out to 5 months and then graph it. It would be interesting.
Quoting 974. jpsb:
Ice Visible on Lake Superior Weeks Ahead of Schedule


Leaves finally fell off all the trees in my yard, weeks later than normal.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

I have a quivering chilled feeling Dr. Masters is about to hit the add new entry button.


thus proof for jrsp....that indeed there is no global warming
992. jpsb
Quoting 984. Naga5000:



Let us know when there is snow on the ground in summer. That's the only way for an ice age to happen...not early snow, not early ice on a lake while the rest of the world is hotter than normal, when there is accumulated snow and ice year round, then start hyping the ice age cometh. There is no glacial expansion without accumulation year round. This is basic stuff...you seemed to have skipped over that.

Until then, you are perpetuating conspiracy and bad science. It's really stupid.


Actually we are currently in an "Ice Age" since a large portion of the Earth is covered year round with ice and snow. Some of which is kilometers deep. However I am not predicting anything I am simply presenting factual information. As do many others that blog here. But yes I do think variations in Solar luminosity plays a dominate and as yet, not fully understood role on the Earth's climate.
Quoting 992. jpsb:



Actually we are currently in an "Ice Age" since a large portion of the Earth is covered year round with ice and snow. Some of which is kilometers deep. However I am not predicting anything I am simply presenting factual information. As do many others that blog here. But yes I do think variations in Solar luminosity plays a dominate and as yet, not fully understood role on the Earth's climate.


Not fully understood? What rock do you reside under? Do they get journal articles there? As for facts, you left out continued warming of both surface temperature and ocean which contradict any "facts" of cooling you like to present. The fact is, the planet is warming, we know why, and you deny science.
Quoting 992. jpsb:



Actually we are currently in an "Ice Age" since a large portion of the Earth is covered year round with ice and snow. Some of which is kilometers deep. However I am not predicting anything I am simply presenting factual information. As do many others that blog here. But yes I do think variations in Solar luminosity plays a dominate and as yet, not fully understood role on the Earth's climate.


If an "Ice age" is defined as presence og glaciers and glaciated or frozen polar latitudes, then yes we are in an ice
age and have been since our species differentiated from other apes. And yes these periods are the exception over the lifetime of our planet.

However as a species we have known no other conditions and have built not easily movable infrastructure and developed agriculture that depends on things not changing.

Bad news. They're changing. It's getting warmer.
995. jpsb
Quoting 993. Naga5000:



Not fully understood? What rock do you reside under? Do they get journal articles there? As for facts, you left out continued warming of both surface temperature and ocean which contradict any "facts" of cooling you like to present. The fact is, the planet is warming, we know why, and you deny science.


Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate

Understanding the sun-climate connection requires a breadth of expertise in fields such as plasma physics, solar activity, atmospheric chemistry and fluid dynamics, energetic particle physics, and even terrestrial history. No single researcher has the full range of knowledge required to solve the problem. To make progress, the NRC had to assemble dozens of experts from many fields at a single workshop. The report summarizes their combined efforts to frame the problem in a truly multi-disciplinary context.

The is experiencing record cold, ice already on Lake Superior, 3' of snow in Michigan, and Jeff Masters gives us a blog on Global Waming. Junk science has no conscience. Sooner or later the public is going to figure out the fraud of those who propose man is responsible for global temp change.
Quoting 996. Svfortuna:
The is experiencing record cold, ice already on Lake Superior, 3' of snow in Michigan, and Jeff Masters gives us a blog on Global Waming. Junk science has no conscience. Sooner or later the public is going to figure out the fraud of those who propose man is responsible for global temp change.


Because "Global" and "Eastern US" are the same thing, right?
Wow .... Which part of the word "Global" are some of you having a hard time wrapping your wee little minds around?

If I look out my backdoor the earth looks like it's flat but globally we all know it's a curved ball ..... If it is colder than normal here that means only one thing really, it's warmer than normal somewhere else because Heat = Energy and cold = nothing and has no magical powers to destroy energy (heat) If that energy is no longer here then it's someplace else .... If you figure a way to magically destroy energy then you'vve also cracked the secret to creating energy (rather than simply converting it) and all that coal, oil, and natural gas would not only be a worthless asset but a crippling liability to those who own it

This post makes perfect sense .... Warmer air holds more moisture, moisture moving generates a bipolar electrical field in the cloud, more moisture = stronger electrical field

You would most likely not only see more lightning but also more violent lightning .... There is simply more "Juice in the battery"
Quoting 996. Svfortuna:

The is experiencing record cold, ice already on Lake Superior, 3' of snow in Michigan, and Jeff Masters gives us a blog on Global Waming. Junk science has no conscience. Sooner or later the public is going to figure out the fraud of those who propose man is responsible for global temp change.
Show some proof that its a fraud..I,ll read it