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El Niño Temperatures Highest Since 2012, but NOAA Drops El Niño Odds to 58%

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:50 PM GMT on November 11, 2014

NOAA dropped their odds of an El Niño event forming this winter from 67% in their October outlook to 58% in their November outlook, but a surge of warm water over the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the past week could signal the onset of El Niño. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average in the equatorial Pacific region 120°W - 170°W, 5°S - 5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region) crossed the +0.5°C from average threshold in mid-October, and as of November 10, these temperatures were +0.8°C from average--the greatest weekly anomaly since late August 2012. By definition, an El Niño episode occurs when SSTs are at least +0.5°C from average in this region for five consecutive months, with each month representing a 3-month average. Furthermore, ocean currents along the Equator flowing from east to west have weakened significantly over the past week, as apparent from plots made using NOAA's Ocean Surface Current Analyses - Real time web site. This sort of weakening typically happens at the onset of an El Niño event.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average in the equatorial Pacific region 120°W - 170°W, 5°S - 5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region.) By definition, an El Niño episode occurs when SSTs are at least +0.5°C from average (above the red line) in this region for five consecutive months, with each month representing a 3-month average. Niño 3.4 temperatures crossed the +0.5°C from average threshold in mid-October, and as of November 10, were +0.8°C from average--the greatest weekly anomaly since late August 2012. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Why we may not get an El Niño episode
While the progression towards El Niño over the past week may seem to be compelling evidence that El Niño is imminent, we've been fooled before. One of the strongest sub-surface waves of warm water (a Kelvin wave) ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific pushed eastwards earlier this year, giving rise to speculation back in May that a strong El Niño event might be on the way. However, the westerly winds needed to push this warm water to the east towards South America never got strong enough, and progress towards El Niño conditions faltered. A similar sequence of events unfolded in September 2012. Forecasting El Niño is hard, and has been made more difficult in recent years since the character of El Niño itself seems to be changing on decadal (10-year) or longer timescales. Emily Becker, a researcher at the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), provides some insight as to why NOAA dropped their El Niño odds in NOAA's latest ENSO Blog post (ENSO is the acronym for “El Niño - Southern Oscillation”, which is the more scientifically rigorous term for what I typically refer to as “El Niño.") One key reason she gives: "We’re still not seeing much of an atmospheric response to the surface warming, so there is now concern that if El Niño conditions are achieved, they won’t persist for the five overlapping seasons required for this to be called an El Niño event."

An El Niño event typically brings cooler and wetter than average winter weather to the Southern U.S.

Jeff Masters

Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters.
i guess we can say good-bye to hurricane season - with a few weeks to go, the sea is a lot cooler and there's nothing getting ready - hooray, nothing hit Florida again :-)
Thanks Doc. Well see as the CFSv2 latest 8 members are going very strong with El-Nino come later next Spring. Looks like another Warm Pool is forecast to develop based on the CFS.



Look at the warm that is forecast to surface by next Summer. Very impressive to say the least.



Also the atmosphere has responded with the 30 Day SOI average at moderate El-Nino levels.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 11 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -13.3
Average for last 90 days -8.8
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -7.6

Quoting ConchConvert:
i guess we can say good-bye to hurricane season - with a few weeks to go, the sea is a lot cooler and there's nothing getting ready - hooray, nothing hit Florida again :-)
Get ready, old man winter is packing his bags and moving in. :)
Good Morning and Thank You Dr. Masters. It will be interesting to see how Climate Change and the warm phase of the PDO will impact the forecasting for El Nino's in the future. Interesting times ahead.
thanx doc.......reading the enso blog yesterday they also said it's more difficult for the models to predict a weak event which is what the consensus is showing......here's the enso probabilities......

Here's the January forecast from the CFSv2. The precip pattern sure resembles El-Nino with Caiifornia & FL looking very wet come January.

El Niño Temperatures Highest Since 2012, but NOAA Drops El Niño Odds to 58%


some one is sure late with the new why most of us all ready nos about the noaa drops the El nino odds
"We’re still not seeing much of an atmospheric response to the surface warming, so there is now concern that if El Niño conditions are achieved, they won’t persist for the five overlapping seasons required for this to be called an El Niño event."

A persistently negative (and dropping) SOI and weak walker cell disagree.
Quoting 7. StormTrackerScott:

Here's the January forecast from the CFSv2. The precip pattern sure resembles El-Nino with Caiifornia & FL looking very wet come January.




hi scott starting next week CA has major pattern chages

this was the 00z



this is even better




it all so had storms be for that one and more storms after that i dont get it a few weeks a go the GFS and ever other mode runs had a dry and doom NOV now it seem like they swich too a vary wet mid to late NOV note the 12z GFS is comeing out so i wounder what happen ?
Quoting 6. ricderr:

thanx doc.......reading the enso blog yesterday they also said it's more difficult for the models to predict a weak event which is what the consensus is showing......here's the enso probabilities......




I didn't know the 5 month overlapping rule and its interesting as the CFS although does show another strong warm pool next Spring it also shows upwelling of cooler water before the warmer water surfaces come April or May.
Quoting ConchConvert:
i guess we can say good-bye to hurricane season - with a few weeks to go, the sea is a lot cooler and there's nothing getting ready - hooray, nothing hit Florida again :-)


Season's been pretty dead ever since Hurricane Gonzalo back in Mid October.
The only system we've had since Gonzalo was Tropical Storm Hanna, which only lasted 12 hours.

Problem before was the SOI was very positive when we had that record warm pool back last Spring now we have a very negative SOI which supports El-Nino and a very positive PDO as well. Only thing lacking is the ESPI but the models do show increased precip across the Nino zones over the coming weeks allowing the ESPI to rise significantly.
Just finished snowblowing 12 packy inches here on Chequamegon Bay, it was slow going. Several reports of up to 14 inches in the area, with another foot today in the high terrain of the Lake Superior snowbelt in northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan.

I turned off the radar layer on this screenshot, but not much is showing up anyway, since lake-effect snow is usually below 2,000 or 3,000 feet, and the lowest tilt of the radar in the snowbelt is 6,000 feet above ground level.

Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:

Problem before was the SOI was very positive when we had that record warm pool back last Spring now we have a very negative SOI which supports El-Nino and a very positive PDO as well. Only thing lacking is the ESPI but the models do show increased precip across the Nino zones over the coming weeks allowing the ESPI to rise significantly.



see post 10
Quoting 10. Tazmanian:



hi scott starting next week CA has major pattern chages

this was the 00z



this is even better




it all so had storms be for that one and more storms after that i dont get it a few weeks a go the GFS and ever other mode runs had a dry and doom NOV now it seem like they swich too a vary wet mid to late NOV note the 12z GFS is comeing out so i wounder what happen ?


Euro has been showing this set up on its weeklies for the last 2 weeks in its long range forecast. The pattern I'm seeing on the Euro is what one would expect during El-Nino.
Quoting 7. StormTrackerScott:

Here's the January forecast from the CFSv2. The precip pattern sure resembles El-Nino with Caiifornia & FL looking very wet come January.




This needs to happen, regardless of ENSO.
I didn't know the 5 month overlapping rule and its interesting as the CFS although does show another strong warm pool next Spring it also shows upwelling of cooler water before the warmer water surfaces come April or May.

i guess they didn't teach that in your many years of met schooling.....i suggest you try noaa's online school site jetstream
Quoting 16. Tazmanian:




see post 10


Here's the 12Z GFS showing storms plowing into California then traveling east and meeting Arctic air east of the Rockies. Fun times ahead my friend.

Florida. Dry. I'm happy.

Thank you Dr. Masters...
Thanks doc
Quoting 20. StormTrackerScott:



Here's the 12Z GFS showing storms plowing into California then traveling east and meeting Arctic air east of the Rockies. Fun times ahead my friend.




thats are 1st strong storm with in are train storm that the GFS is showing the train of storms is getting ready too leve
Quoting 24. Tazmanian:



thats are 1st strong storm with in are train storm that the GFS is showing the train of storms is getting ready too leve


12Z GFS has storms slamming into California almost every other day especially Central & Northern California. Great news for you guys. Euro was right again as now the GFS is following suit.
Quoting 25. StormTrackerScott:



12Z GFS has storms slamming into California almost every other day especially Central & Northern California. Great news for you guys. Euro was right again as now the GFS is following suit.


looks like some place by the end of next week could be looking at a good 10 too 15" of rain with higher spots get 20"
One storm moves into Texas and there is another about to come into Northern California that moves SW into the SW US. Going to be lots of energy coming across the US with very cold air in place for many.

Quoting 26. washingtonian115:



You can't post the Euro on here from Weatherbell. Just found this out yesterday,
That polar vortex is one massive storm...I heard from my brother last night in Wyoming...he said they shut down the mines it was so bad...and they don't shut down for what he called "regular winter snow"
16 Day precip accum. You can kinda get a feel for the storm track here.

Quoting 30. tiggeriffic:

That polar vortex is one massive storm...I heard from my brother last night in Wyoming...he said they shut down the mines it was so bad...and they don't shut down for what he called "regular winter snow"

Hey tigger tell your brother to protect himself from the cold wear extra garments if he has to go outside, but I would urge to stay inside. That is some frigid cold air coming down.

Funny how some on here consistently say the atmosphere is behaving in El Nino-like ways, yet the NOAA says the reason they dropped the probability percentage is because the atmosphere is not behaving in El-Nino-like ways.
Quoting 33. tampabaymatt:

Funny how some on here consistently say the atmosphere is behaving in El Nino-like ways, yet the NOAA says the reason they dropped the probability percentage is because the atmosphere is not behaving in El-Nino-like ways.


SOI is a direct reflection of El-Nino and was the reason we didn't get El-Nino sooner as the SOI was positive now the SOI is below the -8 threshold.


SOI measures the atmospheric conditions near Tahiti and when the SOI is negative or below -8 and stays that way for more than 90 days then that means the atmosphere has clicked into El-Nino mode.

Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey tigger tell your brother to protect himself from the cold wear extra garments if he has to go outside, but I would urge to stay inside. That is some frigid cold air coming down.




Hey GT...he has lived out there and has worked the mines for decades...but he did say that he had to run to his truck to grab his hairbrush...said his hair froze in the time it took him to run 150 ft...
Quoting 30. tiggeriffic:

That polar vortex is one massive storm ...I heard from my brother last night in Wyoming...he said they shut down the mines it was so bad...and they don't shut down for what he called "regular winter snow"

Yes it is..
Quoting 11. StormTrackerScott:



I didn't know the 5 month overlapping rule


It said 5 seasons not 5 months.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:

850mb temps, 500mb heights, and MSLP maps are allowed. I told you that yesterday lol.
Check these temperatures.
This was January 7th, 2014 at 1:45pm in the afternoon.
20 degrees in the middle of the day in Atlanta.

Quoting 39. Sfloridacat5:

Check these temperatures.
This was January 17th, 2014 at 1:45pm in the afternoon.




yep...and the next one hit in February...I remember it well
From the heart of the matter, last night's cold front came through like a towering locomotive.
Temps dropped to 29 at the mesonet station in central OK nearest me. Was 78F yesterday afternoon. The wind chill temp was 15-16F early this morning. N winds were steady in the 30s and gusting to high 40s. Tonight a hard freeze warning. No Duh.

Leading edge nearing GOM coast.

per this 1030 cst surface analysis.

Quoting 33. tampabaymatt:

Funny how some on here consistently say the atmosphere is behaving in El Nino-like ways, yet the NOAA says the reason they dropped the probability percentage is because the atmosphere is not behaving in El-Nino-like ways.


NOAA are the ones being a downcaster right now
<---- Gently unfolds his new Thermal Longwear.
In the 19th century El Nino was the signal -- ringing loud and clear. in the 20th century, El Nino was the signal, with AGW as noise. In the 21st century, AGW is the signal and El Nino is just noise. In the future, AGW will increasingly drive and force circulation patterns, and El Nino will be less significant.

Something like El Nino will return when the climate system stabilizes again. It may take a while.
Quoting 18. TimSoCal:



This needs to happen, regardless of ENSO.


For California yes... Not so sure Florida needs more rain at the moment. Last time I was there my front yard was a swimming pool for weeks on end. But I would rather be wetter than normal than drier than normal.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Check these temperatures.
This was January 17th, 2014 at 1:45pm in the afternoon.
20 degrees in the middle of the day in Atlanta.

January 7, actually, but it was unusually cold all of January leading up to our January 29 ice and snowstorm. It warmed up nice in February though. We had several near misses with snow earlier in January and, in my experience, these repeated cold air out breaks will inevitably lead to snow. We'll see if the same thing happens this year.


Quoting Barefootontherocks:
From the heart of the matter, last night's cold front came through like a towering locomotive.
Temps dropped to 29 at the nearest mesonet station in central OK nearest me. Was 78F yesterday afternoon. The wind chill temp was 15-16F early this morning. N winds were stead in the 30s and gusting to high 40s. Tonight a hard freeze warning. No Duh.

Leading edge nearing GOM coast.

per this 1030 cst surface analysis.



I graduated from Moore High School.
I also survived a central Oklahoma Winter with only a motorcycle one year.
I can still remember being freezing cold riding my motorcycle to school in the morning with snow on the ground and temps in the single digits.

But as you mentioned, you can get huge temperature drops across Oklahoma (70s during the day and then have it snow that night).

Quoting Agres:
In the 19th century El Nino was the signal -- ringing loud and clear. in the 20th century, El Nino was the signal, with AGW as noise. In the 21st century, AGW is the signal and El Nino is just noise. In the future, AGW will increasingly drive and force circulation patterns, and El Nino will be less significant.

Something like El Nino will return when the climate system stabilizes again. It may take a while.
And your evidence for this is...?
GFS 12z and PGFS 12z lacking in moisture for early next week's storm. Still a lot of time for that to change though. Even more potential being shown later on next week.

Peaked the ECMWF weeklies, and it continues the trend of southern tracking systems with significant medium to long-range potential.
One thing is for sure, the cold looks like it's here to stay.

Quoting 39. Sfloridacat5:

Check these temperatures.
This was January 17th, 2014 at 1:45pm in the afternoon.
20 degrees in the middle of the day in Atlanta.




It dropped 14 degrees here in the last hour ...and wind kicked up a notch ...feels like winter! lol. Saying that at 52F here in Houston
Quoting sar2401:
January 7, actually, but it was unusually cold all of January leading up to our January 29 ice and snowstorm. It warmed up nice in February though. We had several near misses with snow earlier in January and, in my experience, these repeated cold air out breaks will inevitably lead to snow. We'll see if the same thing happens this year.




Don't know why I typed 17.
I fixed it.

Quoting 7. StormTrackerScott:

Here's the January forecast from the CFSv2. The precip pattern sure resembles El-Nino with Caiifornia & FL looking very wet come January.


The CFS is absolute trash and changes at the flip of a dime. It forecasted November to be very warm with an opposite signal compared to the one we're experiencing and will experience. It changed its mind only recently.
Quoting 34. StormTrackerScott:



SOI is a direct reflection of El-Nino and was the reason we didn't get El-Nino sooner as the SOI was positive now the SOI is below the -8 threshold.


SOI measures the atmospheric conditions near Tahiti and when the SOI is negative or below -8 and stays that way for more than 90 days then that means the atmosphere has clicked into El-Nino mode.




You directly attributed the on-shore (west to east) prevailing wind pattern that occurred much of the summer in Florida to El Nino. When people reminded you that there was no El Nino declared, your response was that the atmosphere was behaving in El Nino-like ways.
Quoting 54. Drakoen:


The CFS is absolute trash and changes at the flip of a dime. It forecasted November to be very warm with an opposite signal compared to the one we're experiencing and will experience. It changed its mind only recently.



it's the long-term model of the day that's showing lots of rain for FL.
Will there be a way to view the comet landing on the web?
Frosty Man was born and died that morning (Jan.7th) last year. Low got down to 43 in the city, but some areas saw upper 20s in the colder spots further inland.
Quoting 51. Drakoen:

GFS 12z and PGFS 12z lacking in moisture for early next week's storm. Still a lot of time for that to change though. Even more potential being shown later on next week.

Peaked the ECMWF weeklies, and it continues the trend of southern tracking systems with significant medium to long-range potential.
One thing is for sure, the cold looks like it's here to stay.


Hopefully the cold continues to prevail during December.That's when we could see some real ****.Haven't had a decent December ****storm since 2009.
Thanks Doc.
Thanks Doc! Quote: "Forecasting El Nino is hard ..."

Reminds me of the following article about the problem some days ago with an obviously annoyed Met, lol:

Waiting for El Nino. Still. Again.

Climate Central, Published: November 6th, 2014
..."This has been a rather frustrating six months," said Mike Halpert, the acting director of the Climate Prediction Center, which issues the monthly El Nino forecast update with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. ...
...Halpert and his colleagues are hoping, though, that something happens either way within the next month or two, so they can either declare the El Nino, or, let it go.
"That would be a refreshing change," Halpert said."

Whole article see link above.
Quoting 57. win1gamegiantsplease:

Will there be a way to view the comet landing on the web?

NASA & ESA are streaming it. Starts at 2ET (19Z)
Quoting 57. win1gamegiantsplease:

Will there be a way to view the comet landing on the web?


No, it's all a big secret, now turn OFF your PC.
Quoting 56. tampabaymatt:



it's the long-term model of the day that's showing lots of rain for FL.


It's not a tough Winter forecast for Florida (if) we get an El Nino. Expect above normal rains.
Quoting 62. Skyepony:


NASA & ESA are streaming it. Starts at 2ET (19Z)


Awe Sky, your too kind !
Guess you've already heard of the anew severe (and this time unfortunately deadly) flooding in northern Italy. BBC weather video got impressive images and shows the drunken jetstream causing all this.

Italy lashed again by violent storms and flash flooding
BBC weather video, 11 November 2014 Last updated at 15:50
Landslides and flash flooding have hit northern Italy. Emergency workers are searching for an elderly couple after a wave of mud and debris hit the village of Leivi in the north-western region of Liguria. Some areas saw 20 cm of rain in just 12 hours.
Tomasz Schafernaker reports for BBC World

Quoting 62. Skyepony:


NASA & ESA are streaming it. Starts at 2ET (19Z)


tyvm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes it is..

Washi, post a real one, I told you that was a fake last night.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Check these temperatures.
This was January 7th, 2014 at 1:45pm in the afternoon.
20 degrees in the middle of the day in Atlanta.


I remember calling the preceding winter storm Earl, and once the snow came in, the temprature dropped like a stone. 200 that afternoon, it was 20 degrees, and at 800 the next morning, it was -3 degrees. Wind chill was -19.
I remember the next day, and the next day, up till Thursday, I was shoveling ICE off the sidewalk so nobody could slip. The first day of dangerous wind chills, I wore sweatpants, boots, and a robe under my heavy winter coat. I also wore heavy gloves. the second and third day was the same thing, minus the robe on the second day and minus the gloves on the third day. I think that going out in dangerous wind chills is the bravest thing I've ever done.


here come the cold weather
Quoting 55. tampabaymatt:



You directly attributed the on-shore (west to east) prevailing wind pattern that occurred much of the summer in Florida to El Nino. When people reminded you that there was no El Nino declared, your response was that the atmosphere was behaving in El Nino-like ways.


It was because the atmosphere although not El-Nino was in a warm neutral state.
Yikes:


Quoting 54. Drakoen:


The CFS is absolute trash and changes at the flip of a dime. It forecasted November to be very warm with an opposite signal compared to the one we're experiencing and will experience. It changed its mind only recently.



I don't really look at temps regarding the CFS what I look it is the overall jet stream pattern which has been consistent with showing an active southern jet for this Winter for many months.
Random update from Colorado Springs...NWS was *very* wrong about our forecast today, and they haven't even issued statements to correct it. The forecast called for partly sunny, isolated flurries, no accumulations. We've had over five inches of snow in the last three hours here on the west side of The Springs, and it's still coming down at about an inch per hour. Snow machine is supposed to crank up again tonight, so there's no telling what we'll end up with. High was supposed to be 28, we're sitting at 14. Snow plows/salt trucks can barely keep up.
Quoting 54. Drakoen:


The CFS is absolute trash and changes at the flip of a dime. It forecasted November to be very warm with an opposite signal compared to the one we're experiencing and will experience. It changed its mind only recently.


Let the model watchers watch the models. There's no use in explaining to them that the models aren't a meteorological Bible that will give the answers to everything.
Quoting 61. barbamz:

Thanks Doc! Quote: "Forecasting El Ni%uFFFDo is hard ..."

Reminds me of the following article about the problem some days ago with an obviously annoyed Met, lol:

Waiting for El Ni%uFFFDo. Still. Again.
Climate Central, Published: November 6th, 2014
...%u201CThis has been a rather frustrating six months,%u201D said Mike Halpert, the acting director of the Climate Prediction Center, which issues the monthly El Ni%uFFFDo forecast update with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University. ...
...Halpert and his colleagues are hoping, though, that something happens either way within the next month or two, so they can either declare the El Ni%uFFFDo, or, let it go.
%u201CThat would be a refreshing change,%u201D Halpert said."

Whole article see link above.


I believe this is the link that Barb referred to above Link
Quoting Drakoen:

The CFS is absolute trash and changes at the flip of a dime. It forecasted November to be very warm with an opposite signal compared to the one we're experiencing and will experience. It changed its mind only recently.
Anyone who thinks you are talking out of your hat should look at just one period of forecast verification. This is Dec-Jan-Feb of 2011-2012 for the US for precipitation.



The top map is the CFS forecast issued in November 2011. The bottom map is the actual observed precipitation. It doesn't take a lot of analysis to see that, except for a few areas of the country, the CFS was slightly to completely wrong in its forecast. The problem is that we don't know what random areas of the country will be right and which ones will be wrong. Temperature forecasts are actually slight worse.

There are also some verification graphs of Nino 3.4 SST temperature anomalies predicted and observed. Except for general trends, the accuracy was such that anyone looking at these predictions for things like tenth of a degree cooling or warming is fooling themselves.



All this data and more is available at the CFS Forecast Verification page. Before you put any faith in a graph just because it's issued by NCEP/CFS, look up to see how accurate it's been in the past. That will tell you how many pounds of salt you need to take with the next graph.
Quoting 74. TylerStanfield:


Let the model watchers watch the models. There's no use in explaining to them that the models aren't a meteorological Bible that will give the answers to everything.



Again wasn't referring to temperatures. The jet stream pattern on the CFS is similar to the Euro so there you go. Infact most if not all models had November being a warm month and myself and a few others disagreed but i guess we were watching models.
Quoting 76. sar2401:

Anyone who thinks you are talking out of your hat should look at just one period of forecast verification. This is Dec-Jan-Feb of 2013-2013 for the US for precipitation.



The top map is the CFS forecast issued in November 2012. The bottom map is the actual observed precipitation. It doesn't take a lot of analysis to see that, except for a few areas of the country, the CFS was slightly to completely wrong in its forecast. The problem is that we don't know what random areas of the country will be right and which ones will be wrong. Temperature forecasts are actually slight worse.

There are also some verification graphs of Nino 3.4 SST temperature anomalies predicted and observed. Except for general trends, the accuracy was such that anyone looking at these predictions for things like tenth of a degree cooling or warming is fooling themselves.



All this data and more is available at the CFS Forecast Verification page. Before you put any faith in a graph just because it's issued by NCEP/CFS, look up to see how accurate it's been in the past. That will tell you how many pounds of salt you need to take with the next graph.


Models have been struggling with blocking going on near the Poles and this has been the case IMO since 2010 thats why we have had so many cold Winters recently then throw in the very anomalous warm North Pacific which really threw a monkey wrench into the weather patterns.
Beautiful day across Florida today.

The Florida Low is doing its thing just offshore. One thing it's doing is helping to pull nice cool dry air down into the state.

Quoting GBguy88:
Random update from Colorado Springs...NWS was *very* wrong about our forecast today, and they haven't even issued statements to correct it. The forecast called for partly sunny, isolated flurries, no accumulations. We've had over five inches of snow in the last three hours here on the west side of The Springs, and it's still coming down at about an inch per hour. Snow machine is supposed to crank up again tonight, so there's no telling what we'll end up with. High was supposed to be 28, we're sitting at 14. Snow plows/salt trucks can barely keep up.

just checked their forecast. if what you're saying is true, which it probably is (the temp is 15 there), they've messed up big time.
Quoting GBguy88:
Random update from Colorado Springs...NWS was *very* wrong about our forecast today, and they haven't even issued statements to correct it. The forecast called for partly sunny, isolated flurries, no accumulations. We've had over five inches of snow in the last three hours here on the west side of The Springs, and it's still coming down at about an inch per hour. Snow machine is supposed to crank up again tonight, so there's no telling what we'll end up with. High was supposed to be 28, we're sitting at 14. Snow plows/salt trucks can barely keep up.
The Front Range is one of the most difficult parts of the country to forecast. That being said, that's quite a forecast bust. I imagine the highway department and city fathers aren't too thrilled, not to mention the general public. They have made a slight update to the forecast though:

Veterans Day Snow likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. East southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

So, according to the boys, you should make it to 22 and all but 1 of your 5 inches of snow should melt. :-)
Post 76. sar2401 hit the nail on right on the head in terms of the model verification. All one needs to know is the GFS forecast of ghost storms in the Western Caribbean all season long. How did that pan out? I would say below the long term average. Hopefully, the parallel GFS will get rid of the noise, convective feedback issues, and ghost storms for next season. Anyways waiting to see the numerical model verification for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin, you know the one that has 0-24 hrs, 24-36 hrs...96-120 hrs.
Quoting 55. tampabaymatt:



You directly attributed the on-shore (west to east) prevailing wind pattern that occurred much of the summer in Florida to El Nino. When people reminded you that there was no El Nino declared, your response was that the atmosphere was behaving in El Nino-like ways.

Put him on ignore
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Beautiful day across Florida today.

The Florida Low is doing its thing just offshore. One thing it's doing is helping to pull nice cool dry air down into the state.

At least you're not getting hammered...or blasted. :-)
nature likes to give twos notice long term models now have another big bering sea storm http://www.surfnewsnetwork.com/swell-tracker/
Quoting 84. sar2401:

At least you're not getting hammered...or blasted. :-)


LOL:)
Quoting 85. islander101010:

nature likes to give twos notice long term models now have another big bering sea storm


More Stratospheric warming meaning another Arctic Blast is looming.
The 850 mb chart shows weather conditions at the 850 mb level or around 5000 feet above sea level. The parameters plotted are temperatures in Celsius (in color contours), heights in white lines and winds plotted as vectors.

Upper level pattern is just beautiful on the GFS. Will something major occur?  I think we should see a more significant storm than what the models are showing at the surface.


A blessed Veterans Day to all..Godspeed to those serving now and those who have served in past wars...

Quoting 87. StormTrackerScott:



More Stratospheric warming meaning another Arctic Blast is looming.
yes even colder air building in the high north awaiting the drop down over NA

I think its called winter not sure will have to check to see if its been renamed to something else
Quoting 80. 62901IL:


just checked their forecast. if what you're saying is true, which it probably is (the temp is 15 there), they've messed up big time.


Oh, it certainly is true. I snapped a pic of a can of soda stuck in the snow (I don't own a ruler, sorry, hahaha) but can't figure out how to upload it, and the snow comes up about two inches over the top of the can, so I may have been a touch conservative when I said five inches on the ground. I'm stunned. It acted like it wanted to let up for a minute or two, but now we're back up to what I'd guess to be about a half inch or three fourths per hour. According to models and radar, we should only be getting light flurries. What a day.
93. vis0
Let me put this out there before someone does it as if it seriously
happens... Dr. Masters all the hard work you do causes GW/GCS i.e. heat
generated from "fingers sparking at the keypad" (almost said
typewriter...**) ,

**BTW talk 'bout a lop sided  workout, imagine
the toning the right side of the body gets pushing a typewriter
cartridge/carriage (~5LBs... un- greased 15lbs) to the left ♪ to the left ♪.

enjoy zilly comments that make one think try my last 2 comments on the last Dr. Masters blog.

Thank you Dr. (woaaaAAAAAHHHHHHH***) Masters

***as
in get ready for the Niño roller coaster ride at great adventure you'll
stay dry through the water fall and get wet through the dry areas
 LEGAL STATEMENT:: The ~ on ñ is not for roller coaster.

If
one can't figure our head tails or side of coin of my blog i state in
the next ~3-5 yrs watch for 2 Mod-higher  in a row or a
moderate+serious modoki nino odds are via MY SCIENCE ~68%, if none next
yer then 79% the following year INjoy. ...gotta shop...,peace
Quoting 89. Drakoen:

Upper level pattern is just beautiful on the GFS. Will something major occur?  I think we should see a more significant storm than what the models are showing at the surface.



more than likely lots of atmosphere moving around gonna kick something up for sure
Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes even colder air building in the high north awaiting the drop down over NA

I think its called winter not sure will have to check to see if its been renamed to something else


LOL. Winter Apocalypse.?
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Let the model watchers watch the models. There's no use in explaining to them that the models aren't a meteorological Bible that will give the answers to everything.
Amen, Brother! Preach it!
12Z Euro has a big storm moving across the South at days 9 & 10. Thinking a severe weather potential is likely next week somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Could be from the Houston area east to FL with heavy snow further north.
Quoting 95. StormTrackerScott:



LOL. Winter Apocalypse.?
give it up u trouble maker
Quoting 75. tropicofcancer:



I believe this is the link that Barb referred to above Link


Uups, link went awry. Thank you, I've fixed it now.



wow cold air down to the south
Quoting 98. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

give it up u trouble maker


I was just playing Keeper. All you hear on all these different news outlets is the dreaded Polar Vortex. Trouble maker is the people let talk off topic all day about me. Saying a Winter Apocalypse is not being a trouble maker when replying to your post about Winter names.
Yesterday the Euro was crazy showing snow for me and now it's the GFS's turn to be crazy. Snow here before Thanksgiving? Sure it has happened years ago. But no, I'll believe it when I see it, this isn't January. :)

Quoting 93. vis0:

Let me put this out there before someone does it as if it seriously
happens... Dr. Masters all the hard work you do causes GW/GCS i.e. heat
generated from "fingers sparking at the keypad" (almost said
typewriter...**) ,

**BTW talk 'bout a lop sided  workout, imagine
the toning the right side of the body gets pushing a typewriter
cartridge/carriage (~5LBs... un- greased 15lbs) to the left ♪ to the left ♪.

enjoy zilly comments that make one think try my last 2 comments on the last Dr. Masters blog.

Thank you Dr. (woaaaAAAAAHHHHHHH***) Masters

***as
in get ready for the Niño roller coaster ride at great adventure you'll
stay dry through the water fall and get wet through the dry areas
 LEGAL STATEMENT:: The ~ on ñ is not for roller coaster.

If
one can't figure our head tails or side of coin of my blog i state in
the next ~3-5 yrs watch for 2 Mod-higher  in a row or a
moderate+serious modoki nino odds are via MY SCIENCE ~68%, if none next
yer then 79% the following year INjoy. ...gotta shop...,peace



You OK???
Quoting GBguy88:


Oh, it certainly is true. I snapped a pic of a can of soda stuck in the snow (I don't own a ruler, sorry, hahaha) but can't figure out how to upload it, and the snow comes up about two inches over the top of the can, so I may have been a touch conservative when I said five inches on the ground. I'm stunned. It acted like it wanted to let up for a minute or two, but now we're back up to what I'd guess to be about a half inch or three fourths per hour. According to models and radar, we should only be getting light flurries. What a day.
You have to put a picture on a web service like Flikr or imgur to use it here. The site doesn't allow direct uploads from your computer. You can upload it to WU's picture page and link it from there as well but I've never found that as reliable as a third party service. The option for direct uploads was supposed to happen in 2009. They're still working on it.

I just measured a standard 12 ounce Coke can and it's 4.75 inches, so your estimate isn't far off, especially if the snow came over the top of the can.

Quoting tropicofcancer:


You OK???
Vis is a smart guy. He's just a little...mysterious at times. You have to read enough of his blog to learn to pick out the nuggets.
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Yesterday the Euro was crazy snowing snow for me and now it's the GFS's turn to be crazy. Snow here before Thanksgiving? Sure it has happened years ago. But no, I'll believe it when I see it, this isn't January. :)

It was showing a narrow swath of snow across central Alabama for Wednesday. Now it's showing a bigger piece for Friday in north Alabama. This kind of forecast is useful for showing general trends and maybe precipitation of any type 200 miles plus or minus from your house, especially on the fringes of the forecast areas.
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Vis is a smart guy. He's just a little...mysterious at times. You have to read enough of his blog to learn to pick out the nuggets.
and besides no rules about being strange and we all know some days it can get really strange around here
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and besides no rules about being strange and we all know some days it can get ready strange around here
True. If no one was ever allowed to be strange there would only be about five people on here...
Quoting hydrus:
A blessed Veterans Day to all..Godspeed to those serving now and those who have served in past wars...

From my late father (Navy, 1942-1946, PT Boats) to those serving today, thank you for protecting my pasty white butt. I need it.
Quoting 110. sar2401:

From my late father (Navy, 1942-1946, PT Boats) to those serving today, thank you for protecting my pasty white butt. I need it.


Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Yesterday the Euro was crazy showing snow for me and now it's the GFS's turn to be crazy. Snow here before Thanksgiving? Sure it has happened years ago. But no, I'll believe it when I see it, this isn't January. :)


first the Euro, and now the GFS is going berserk.
oh can't we just get Winter Storm Albus already?!
Quoting Skyepony:

NASA & ESA are streaming it. Starts at 2ET (19Z)
Well, geez, I was sitting here, staring at a blank screen like a dope until I finally had enough brains to read the title. The comet harpooning takes place tomorrow, not today. Same time and station.



i had to save this link on my sticky notes....tyler.....where in the heck did you find that....LOL
Quoting 73. GBguy88:

Random update from Colorado Springs...NWS was *very* wrong about our forecast today, and they haven't even issued statements to correct it. The forecast called for partly sunny, isolated flurries, no accumulations. We've had over five inches of snow in the last three hours here on the west side of The Springs, and it's still coming down at about an inch per hour. Snow machine is supposed to crank up again tonight, so there's no telling what we'll end up with. High was supposed to be 28, we're sitting at 14. Snow plows/salt trucks can barely keep up.


Wow. Well it happens. I can remember the reverse of that, had a 100 percent chance of snow in the Triad of NC around 99 or 2000 can't remember exactly and nada the next day. I was back a couple years ago when it was supposed to snow and the local meteorologist said were giving an 80 percent chance for tonight, we won't do 100 percent anymore since that time.

I've also mentioned several times when an ice storm in February was downcasted, from a glaze to a half inch.
Quoting 114. ricderr:



i had to save this link on my sticky notes....tyler.....where in the heck did you find that....LOL
it is neat keep that for next cane season
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thanks, Keep, and thanks to Canada, our most loyal and steadfast ally.
Quoting islander101010:
nature likes to give twos notice long term models now have another big bering sea storm http://www.surfnewsnetwork.com/swell-tracker/


Hopefully the next storm will also stay in the Bering Sea until it weakens like the 924mb Bering Sea Bomb.

The only places really affected by the 924mb Monster (not when it was a tropical cyclone) were the lower Aleutian Islands and parts of Russia.

Quoting hurricanes2018:



wow cold air down to the south
Seriously, posting the exact same map just posted by Drak in post 89 and adding a meaningless sentence at the end borders on trolling. It just clogs up the blog for no good reason. You do this all the time just to increase your post count. I'm going to start flagging these every time you do it so the mods will take some action. It's monomania at its worst.
Well, this has gotten so crazy that I had to walk to the store and buy a ruler to measure this stuff. I measured just shy of eight inches in several level areas, not in drifts or anything like that, just standing snow cover. Still coming down, though not as heavy at the moment. Location is in western Colorado Springs, just west of 25. It has not let up since 8:00AM, and still we don't have any respectable advisories up. It was nearly 75 yesterday, and then that front hit like a ton of bricks. It's supposed to keep snowing into tonight, and this is the first measurable snowfall of the year for us down in the city! What a start to winter. I don't have flickr or any of those others, but I'll take some shots with my Canon and upload them to the photo page.
Quoting 120. GBguy88:

Well, this has gotten so crazy that I had to walk to the store and buy a ruler to measure this stuff. I measured just shy of eight inches in several level areas, not in drifts or anything like that, just standing snow cover. Still coming down, though not as heavy at the moment. Location is in western Colorado Springs, just west of 25. It has not let up since 8:00AM, and still we don't have any respectable advisories up. It was nearly 75 yesterday, and then that front hit like a ton of bricks. It's supposed to keep snowing into tonight, and this is the first measurable snowfall of the year for us down in the city! What a start to winter. I don't have flickr or any of those others, but I'll take some shots with my Canon and upload them to the photo page.
this thing is working its magic must have perfect conditions to create your localize weather its a strong flip of temps we are in the low 60's here or were but that's the last day for that cold comes in beginning overnight and remain for the long term outlook and we too should get in on the snow scene shortly
Quoting 121. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this thing is working its magic must have perfect conditions to create your localize weather its a strong flip of temps we are in the low 60's here or were but that's the last day for that cold comes in beginning overnight and remain for the long term outlook and we too should get in on the snow scene shortly


I just wish I knew exactly what was causing it. According to radar/models, we're not supposed to be seeing much of anything. We've had periods of near white-out conditions all day. It's cranking back up as I type this.
Quoting 123. GBguy88:



I just wish I knew exactly what was causing it. According to radar/models, we're not supposed to be seeing much of anything. We've had periods of near white-out conditions all day. It's cranking back up as I type this.


Global Forecast Systems (GFS) Update: Effective December 17, 2014

- Change from Eulerian dynamics to Semi-Lagrangian dynamics,
which uses Hermite interpolation in both vertical and horizontal
directions.


Klingon?
Here comes the Arctic air.



Current windchills. Brrrr!!!

Incredibly strange cloud formation

I was gobsmacked (UK term) when I saw this. I've never seen anything remotely like it. Looks like something from a sci-fi alien invasion movie. I'm sure the very informed weather folk on here will say "Oh, yeh, that's just 'such and such'. You see it a lot in (wherever)". But I'd be grateful for an explanation.

Link
Forecast lows for tomorrow.

Mind blowing temp departures.

Quoting 128. nrtiwlnvragn:

Global Forecast Systems (GFS) Update: Effective December 17, 2014

- Change from Eulerian dynamics to Semi-Lagrangian dynamics,
which uses Hermite interpolation in both vertical and horizontal
directions.


Klingon?

maybe some vulcan too
I was gobsmacked (UK term) when I saw this. I've never seen anything remotely like it. Looks like something from a sci-fi alien invasion movie. I'm sure the very informed weather folk on here will say "Oh, yeh, that's just 'such and such'. You see it a lot in (wherever). But I'd be grateful for an explanation.


morning glory
Quoting yonzabam:
Incredibly strange cloud formation

I was gobsmacked (UK term) when I saw this. I've never seen anything remotely like it. Looks like something from a sci-fi alien invasion movie. I'm sure the very informed weather folk on here will say "Oh, yeh, that's just 'such and such'. You see it a lot in (wherever)". But I'd be grateful for an explanation.

Link
Looks like a classic roll cloud. Google images has many pictures of similar clouds.
Quoting 130. yonzabam:

Incredibly strange cloud formation

I was gobsmacked (UK term) when I saw this. I've never seen anything remotely like it. Looks like something from a sci-fi alien invasion movie. I'm sure the very informed weather folk on here will say "Oh, yeh, that's just 'such and such'. You see it a lot in (wherever)". But I'd be grateful for an explanation.

Link
arcus cloud/roll cloud
Quoting ricderr:
morning glory

No Arctic air here in FL.

Orlando
Quoting GBguy88:


I just wish I knew exactly what was causing it. According to radar/models, we're not supposed to be seeing much of anything. We've had periods of near white-out conditions all day. It's cranking back up as I type this.
The Front Range has periods where upslope winds meet some warmer air as they rise. It's cold enough at the surface that the warmer air adds enough moisture for precipitation and, in your case, it's still falling through cold air, so you get snow. As long as you keep seeing east winds, you'll keep getting snow. This tends to be pretty localized, and depends on how close you are to the mountains, how steep a declivity you face, and how much of an inversion you have. Someplace five miles from you could just be getting a few flurries. You see the same thing in the summer when thunderstorms caused by upslope winds keep redeveloping in the same place as long as winds and moisture hold out. Colorado Springs does seem to be behind the power curve on this not even issuing a special weather statement to cover you area. If you're on Facebook, try sending them a message about the conditions at your place and see what you get for a response. My son used to live in Boulder so I got pretty familiar with Front Range weather conditions.
hey i this noted they added a new rule the rule of rd

Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

1 Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

2 Stay on topic.

3 No monomania.

4 No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.

5 Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.

6 No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".

7 Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.

8 No spamming.
9 No spamming.

10 Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.

11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

12 Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road

Quoting 144. StormTrackerScott:



Excuse me? A lost cause showing a map for Thanksgiving to give a hint of what the pattern maybe. What's wrong with that? I almost think its some sort of strange jealously thing with you guys. As keeper said some strange characters on here. Geesh!

No wonder why many don't post on this blog.
ECMWF weeklies are proprietary. They are not on the list of exceptions.
Quoting Drakoen:

You're a lost cause with these Euro images lol.
I think the South always has Turkey Day fun. :-) Wow, that's 16 days away. I really need to get going on fun planning.
now now you guys no fighting
Quoting Drakoen:

ECMWF weeklies are proprietary. They are not on the list of exceptions.
When you're a #Leader, not a #Follower, the rules don't apply.
Even if we don't get an official El Nino, I still think we have a good shot at least of seeing a small amount El Nino impacts in the southeast. A neutral leaning El Nino still has a good shot at producing at least some El Nino impacts.
December will be more favorable for snow than in November even with the so called snow threats, the cold pattern seems like it may stay in December, so I am waiting for December for the real snowstorms not this early storms on the models, at least the pattern is stormy. I will not believe any November Snowstorm until we are some 48 hours out.
I think the South always has Turkey Day fun. :-) Wow, that's 16 days away. I really need to get going on fun planning


only 16 days out?....it's a lock
For the third time...

The only ECMWF products allowed to be widely distributed are 850mb temperatures (and anomalies), 500mb heights (and anomalies), and Mean Sea Level Pressures (and anomalies). The ECMWF EPS and ECMWF EPS weeklies are not part of that list.
Quoting 153. StormTrackerScott:



Never said it was a lock but you get the idea that a active pattern will be in place during that week. You guys take it and spin it for attack purposes. Very sad with how you guys act on here
just stop violating the sites rules where you get the maps from and I think everything will be ok
Quoting 137. sar2401:

Means the GFS will never be wrong again. If it is, we can blame in on hermaphrodites...
I,m blamin Nino...That dude has everything screwed up.....See if we can page him and figure out what the deal is.
Further information: Cyberstalking

The practice of cyberbullying is not limited to children and, while the behavior is identified by the same definition when practiced by adults, the distinction in age groups sometimes refers to the abuse as cyberstalking or cyberharassment when perpetrated by adults toward adults.[8] Common tactics used by cyberstalkers are performed in public forums, social media or online information sites and are intended to threaten a victim's earnings, employment, reputation, or safety. Behaviors may include encouraging others to harass the victim and trying to affect a victim's online participation. Many cyberstalkers try to damage the reputation of their victim and turn other people against them.

If we do get snowy/stormy late Nov, history does show it leads to quieter Dec's but active and stormy Jan and Feb, the heart of the winter cold is not here until Jan-Feb.
The "legal" ECMWF only lets me go out 240 hours (darn!) but it looks like temperatures won't be too awful next Sunday at 6:00 pm. Maybe around 50 in SE AL and 40 up by you in Tennessee. The freezing line runs through the Midwest and over northern New England.The standard deviations really start to crank up by the Great Lakes and over to Keep's house. So, looks cold up north but not too bad down here, assuming any of this can be believed. Maybe it will get to be more fun by Turkey Day.

next week here come the snow!!!
Quoting hydrus:
I,m blamin Nino...That dude has everything screwed up.....See if we can page him and figure out what the deal is.
That's it! Maybe El Nino is really a hermaphrodite! That would explain everything. :-)
Quoting sar2401:
The "legal" ECMWF only lets me go out 240 hours (darn!) but it looks like temperatures won't be too awful next Sunday at 6:00 pm. Maybe around 50 in SE AL and 40 up by you in Tennessee. The freezing line runs through the Midwest and over northern New England.The standard deviations really start to crank up by the Great Lakes and over to Keep's house. So, looks cold up north but not too bad down here, assuming any of this can be believed. Maybe it will get to be more fun by Turkey Day.


I can hardly wait.
Quoting 130. yonzabam:

Incredibly strange cloud formation

I was gobsmacked (UK term) when I saw this. I've never seen anything remotely like it. Looks like something from a sci-fi alien invasion movie. I'm sure the very informed weather folk on here will say "Oh, yeh, that's just 'such and such'. You see it a lot in (wherever)". But I'd be grateful for an explanation.

Link

It's a type of arcus cloud called a roll cloud. It's a single wave moving at a constant speed & won't be attached to any other cloud features. It can be caused by sea breeze interactions but can form from a downdraft in a thunderstorm. They are pretty rare.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ooh, the freeze outlook. frost tonight, maybe?
TWC has been discussing the Columbia River Gorge wind effects. High Wind Warning for the region with gusts to 80mph in the Gorge and 50mph in the Portland area.
Also Portland could see some freezing rain tomorrow night.

I like these localized weather events.
NWS Jackson, KY

MEANWHILE...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD
DEVELOP AND DIG DOWN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND DIG FURTHER SOUTH AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A VERY HARD TIME COMING INTO
ANY SORT OF AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN...WHICH MEANS THAT MODELED SURFACE FEATURES ARE ALSO VERY
UNRELIABLE.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A CENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR
PARAMETERS SUCH AS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP TIMING...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Even if we don't get an official El Nino, I still think we have a good shot at least of seeing a small amount El Nino impacts in the southeast. A neutral leaning El Nino still has a good shot at producing at least some El Nino impacts.
I think you're right, especially for the SE. Unfortunately, this weak pattern only has a 50/50 chance of producing above normal rainfall in California, where they really need it. The strong El Nino that was predicted earlier this year would have really helped but that hope has vanished. I suspect we'll get a 1976-1977 pattern. Cold but not that snowy in the east. Just cold in the south, cold and snowy in the Midwest, and just average rainfall in the West. Really, if it wasn't for all the action in the Pacific, our weather would have been close to normal this fall.
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Tue, Nov 11, 3:27 pm EST
... DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
* LOCATIONS... LONG ISLAND... NEW YORK CITY AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS... AND ALL OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
* HAZARDS... DENSE FOG.
* VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING... AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACTS... REDUCED VISIBILITIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. IF DRIVING... SLOW DOWN... USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS... AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.
&&
More Information
... DENSE FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY...
by 7 am Thursday morning cold pretty well everywhere except fla desert sw



nice spin of low off the east coast
Quoting 164. sar2401:

That's it! Maybe El Nino is really a hermaphrodite! That would explain everything. :-)
Makes sense..The same region is called Nino and Nina depending on what temp it is.
Cleaning up has begun in Italy. Three people were lost.

Hey guys, what is the difference between the Parallel and Regular GFS?
I haven't been keeping up with things so I am unsure of what exactly varies between them.
Quoting 185. tampabaymatt:




I wish there were more bloggers from the Pacific NW. It seems like this map has shown them getting 5+ inches every week for the last few months. It would be interesting to see what conditions are like there.
Quoting 186. GeorgiaStormz:

Hey guys, what is the difference between the Parallel and Regular GFS?
I haven't been keeping up with things so I am unsure of what exactly varies between them.


Parallel has 13km resolution, about 3 times the resolution at the old GFS
Quoting 184. Skyepony:

Cleaning up has begun in Italy. Three people were lost.


Hello Skye..Poor Italy....Seems like they have been getting hit over and over.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


nice spin of low off the east coast

wow!!!!
Quoting 181. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

by 7 am Thursday morning cold pretty well everywhere except fla desert sw

Yeah, it looks like S.Fl is not getting any of the cold. The 10 days for my area has the lowest high temp at 74 for next Wed the 19th., everything else is low 80s/high 70s. Just hoping that I won't be sweating Thanksgiving when I'm grilling!
Quoting 189. hydrus:

Hello Skye..Poor Italy....Seems like they have been getting hit over and over.
this year last year England kept getting pounded every other day seems mom nature has shifted her attention further south and inland

Quoting 186. GeorgiaStormz:

Hey guys, what is the difference between the Parallel and Regular GFS?
I haven't been keeping up with things so I am unsure of what exactly varies between them.



GFS Upgrade
Quoting 188. VAbeachhurricanes:



Parallel has 13km resolution, about 3 times the resolution at the old GFS


So is that just the name they gave to the GFS Upgrade? Wasn't it supposed to replace the old GFS? Has it been proven to be more accurate yet?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by 7 am Thursday morning cold pretty well everywhere except fla desert sw

Friday and Sturday morning is when we're supposed to see freezing temperatures all the way down to the Panhandle. It has been a great day today, with a high of 78 after a low of 37. Having every day like that would be fabulous. I don't even mind the cold at night. When I have to wear a jacket during the day, that's when I know it's getting cold. When I have to wear my parka, then it's really cold. :-)
pressure
noun
1.
the continuous physical force exerted on or against an object by something in contact with it.
"the slight extra pressure he applied to her hand"
the force exerted per unit area.
plural noun: pressures
"gas can be fed to the turbines at a pressure of around 250 psi"
synonyms: physical force, load, stress, thrust

If atmosphere feels pressure, does the land?
Quoting 194. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this year last year England kept getting pounded every other day seems mom nature has shifted her attention further south and inland


I wish that were true, but over the next few days there's set to be heavy rain in parts of the UK with weather warnings going out for quite large chunks of the country. Particularly the south-west and Northern Ireland. Link

Really terrible what's been happening in parts of France & Italy, hopefully they'll get a break to recover from all this heavy rain!
Quoting 197. sar2401:

Friday and Sturday morning is when we're supposed to see freezing temperatures all the way down to the Panhandle. It has been a great day today, with a high of 78 after a low of 37. Having every day like that would be fabulous. I don't even mind the cold at night. When I have to wear a jacket during the day, that's when I know it's getting cold. When I have to wear my parka, then it's really cold. :-)
we broke the 60 degree mark ourselves up here today but the weather office has advised that that will be the last 60 degree day we shall see for quite awhile
Where was it that they were discussing the connection between some earthquakes and weather?

I can't remember if it was on cable or online.

It was an interesting.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


So is that just the name they gave to the GFS Upgrade? Wasn't it supposed to replace the old GFS? Has it been proven to be more accurate yet?
The parallel is the upgrade. They are running it alongside the "old" GFS until 12/17 to make sure nothing funny is happening. If it looks OK, the parallel will just be the GFS. I think some people though this was some supper-duper new version of the GFS or something.
HISTORIC COMET LANDING TOMORROW: The European Space Agency is about to make history: On Nov. 12th, it is going to land on a comet. The action begins Wednesday at 08:35 UT when ESA's Rosetta spacecraft drops a probe named "Philae" onto the core of Comet 67P.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Where was it that they were discussing the connection between some earthquakes and weather?

I can't remember if it was on cable or online.

It was an interesting.

Used to hear all the time about "earthquake weather" when I lived in California. It supposed to be when we have an offshore flow with high pressure and warm temperatures. All the research has proven it's completely false but some people still believe it.
Quoting 201. Sfloridacat5:

Where was it that they were discussing the connection between some earthquakes and weather?

I can't remember if it was on cable or online.

It was an interesting.




frost quakes it happens when you get a lot of rain then plunging temps below -18c or 0 f causing the water to freeze and expand in the ground causing localize booming sounds as the frozen ground spilts from the expanding frozen water

we had them here last year a couple of times but its got to be cold and not 10's or 20's cold but - 10's or -20's cold

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 26s 27 seconds ago

1053 mb high pressure in Wyoming & Montana is rare for November. Only 11-instances of > 1050 mb since 1958.
..
Quoting 202. sar2401:

The parallel is the upgrade. They are running it alongside the "old" GFS until 12/17 to make sure nothing funny is happening. If it looks OK, the parallel will just be the GFS. I think some people though this was some supper-duper new version of the GFS or something.


I knew the upgrade was coming (I had thought it was 15km resolution), but I'd been out of the loop lately. Thanks guys!
Quoting sar2401:
Used to hear all the time about "earthquake weather" when I lived in California. It supposed to be when we have an offshore flow with high pressure and warm temperatures. All the research has proven it's completely false but some people still believe it.


I believe it was on TWC just this week.
Basically some scientists have found a connection between heavy rain events/seasons (usually tropical cyclones) and earthquake activity.
Theory is mostly based on erosion moving a lot of land along with the heavy rains lubricating the faults.

Here's an older (2011) article discussing the connection.
Link
Quoting LargoFl:
WHATS UP WITH banning SCOTTS FLORIDA BLOG?


Where have you been? How much rain did you get from that last system?
Beautiful weather until at least Sunday or Monday.
Nice little lull in the snow now, before round two. The only thing I love (weather wise) as much as I love the roar of a hurricane is the soft, acoustic panel quiet of a fresh blanket of snow. The roads are nearly all ice on this side of town, so that means hot chocolate, fireplace, and a movie night. Hope everyone stays safe for this unseasonal storm...
Quoting 211. Sfloridacat5:



Where have you been? How much rain did you get from that last system?
Beautiful weather until at least Sunday or Monday.
Yes we got some rain here,light rain all night long,the good kind..soaking in slowly....but im getting a bit pissed...someone has an awful heavy hand with this banning thing...maybe I guess i'll check out some other weather sites, perhaps they need a good poster.
Quoting GBguy88:
Nice little lull in the snow now, before round two. The only thing I love (weather wise) as much as I love the roar of a hurricane is the soft, acoustic panel quiet of a fresh blanket of snow. The roads are nearly all ice on this side of town, so that means hot chocolate, fireplace, and a movie night. Hope everyone stays safe for this unseasonal storm...
We had a nice nighttime snowstorm here in SE Alabama in January. It was very nice, silent and pretty. However, having grown up in Cleveland, one of those about every 10 years would be just about right. :-)
Snow squall watch in effect


An Arctic cold front will sweep through Southern Ontario tonight. In the wake of this front, cold air and strong westerly winds over the open waters of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will result in the development of snow squalls Wednesday morning through Thursday. The heaviest squalls could produce snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm per 12 hours along with reduced visibilities.

Snow squalls cause weather conditions to vary considerably, changes from clear skies to heavy snow within just a few kilometres are common. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/

Snow Squall Watches are issued when conditions are favourable for the formation of bands of snow that could produce intense accumulating snow or near zero visibilities.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
Not a big fan of the 18z model runs but the PGFS illustrates what could happen when we have a set up like this. Still lots of unanswered questions at the surface.
Quoting 214. LargoFl:

Yes we got some rain here,light rain all night long,the good kind..soaking in slowly....but im getting a bit pissed...someone has an awful heavy hand with this banning thing...maybe I guess i'll check out some other weather sites, perhaps they need a good poster.
largo he is an alright guy but as of late he has been constanly focusing on what others are posting regarding his comments to the point where it has become disruptive to the blog he is not banned only given a little break in hopes that he just rtns to posting about the weather and that goes for everyone else as well we are really trying to be fair but some are hellbent on making that impossible

therefore we are left with no other choices but actions taken
Quoting 194. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this year last year England kept getting pounded every other day seems mom nature has shifted her attention further south and inland
Yep..Cant help but wonder what this winter holds for North America. I hope for no ice storms.. I have only witnessed 3 in my life. One was fierce in 1976 while on the New Jersey Coast. The other two were here, but not too bad. The two ice storms talked about regularly around here are the 1951 and 1994..There were others, but those were the worst in the past 70 years or so.
Quoting 211. Sfloridacat5:



Where have you been? How much rain did you get from that last system?
Beautiful weather until at least Sunday or Monday.

I have been away... Fill me in about Scott's blog please (Turning red here)
gfs now shows a system coming up from western gulf at the end of its run

Hi PBWeather...Read post 219.
Perhaps a cool down for West Palm beginning of next week...



From Miami NWS Disco...

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTH OR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH INTO NORTHEAST GULF AND
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
Quoting 215. sar2401:

We had a nice nighttime snowstorm here in SE Alabama in January. It was very nice, silent and pretty. However, having grown up in Cleveland, one of those about every 10 years would be just about right. :-)


How are things in your area Sar?

Plenty warm up here in Alaska... In the +40s here.

How is a frost quake different from a frost heave?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

I have been away... Fill me in about Scott's blog please (Turning red here)


I'm out of the loop. I only know what you know based on what Scott said.

Weather related
Texas should be divided into 10 states based on physical geography and climate.
Florida - maybe 3 states (Panhandle and north Fl, Central Fl, South Fl/Keys)



Winter Storm Astro Forecast Update: Lingering Snow in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota
Nov 11, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Winter Storm Astro will will continue Tuesday in the western Great Lakes.
Quoting 222. PalmBeachWeather:

It's right here.

Thailand hit by some extreme flooding..
Flash floods and runoff hit more than 20 villages in Trang province yesterday, despite rainfall in several other areas of the South subsiding. Trang is among several southern provinces where floods have hit since a low-pressure system arrived in the region on Saturday. Hundreds of households in tambon Lam Phula of Huai Yot district were affected after run-off from the Ban That mountains and Nakhon Si Thammarat's Thung Song district hit their neighbourhood in the early hours yesterday. The most severe scenes were reported in Moo 7 village where floods were over a metre deep, prompting Phraya Ratsadanupradit military camp in Huai Yoi district to launch rescue missions. Soldiers travelled in boats along flooded areas yesterday to help those trapped in their houses. The officers also set up a flood relief centre to help residents in the district around the clock. Trang is located to the south of Nakhon Si Thammarat which was also hit by heavy rainfall over the weekend. The subsequent flooding caused provincial authorities to declare five districts - Changwang, Chang Klang, Phipun, Lan Ska and Phra Phom - disaster zones requiring immediate help, according to Chetsada Watthananurak, the province's Disaster Prevention and Mitigation chief. Mr Chetsada said the low-pressure system had moved from the province and was heading for the Andaman Sea. An initial survey found the rainfall had affected more than 12,000 villagers in the five districts and damaged 2,000 rai of farmland and six roads, he said. Beside Trang and Nakhon Si Thammarat, other provinces to be hit by heavy rainfall and flash floods due to low pressure were Chumphon, Surat Thani, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Ranong, Phangnga, Phuket and Krabi. Phirasak Hinmuangkao, Nakhon Si Thammarat governor, said the rain had stopped and the floods were receding. However, authorities remained on alert and continued their operations to help those affected. In Pattani, the navy resumed its search for four missing crew members of a fishing boat which capsized 40 kilometres from the shore on Saturday. In Phatthalung, rainfall reduced and authorities and volunteers mobilised to help drain flood water from community areas. The situation would be back to normal in one or two days, authorities said. However, the department said it was still monitoring the situation.
this pattern setting up is going to make things interesting over the next 2 months.
Latest Snow Reports/Totals
Some of the highest totals from Winter Storm Astro came from Stearns County, Minnesota, which includes St. Cloud. The town of St. Augusta reported 16.5 inches of snow Monday afternoon. The official total in St. Cloud was 13.2 inches, breaking the all-time November calendar-day record of 12.0 inches set Nov. 21, 1898.

It was also St. Cloud's fifth heaviest calendar-day snow on record (dating to 1893) and was their snowiest calendar day in over 49 years, since 14.5 inches of snow blanketed the city on Mar. 1, 1965. Average November snowfall in St. Cloud is 8.4 inches.

Elsewhere, Winter Storm Astro dumped the season's first snow in Bismarck, North Dakota Sunday, with 3.2 inches measured at the National Weather Service office. This first snow in North Dakota's capital city arrived about two weeks later than average. Up to 8 inches accumulated in southwest North Dakota by the time the snow ended.

No travel was advised in Bowman, Dunn, McKenzie and Mercer Counties in western North Dakota Sunday. Snow-covered roads were reported as far east as northwest Wisconsin Monday morning, including the Twin Cities metro area Monday morning. making for a messy commute.

Up to 12 inches of snow blanketed parts of southern and eastern Montana, including Red Lodge (12 inches), Glasgow (6 inches) and Glendive (4 inches). Drifts up to 2 feet around buildings were observed near Brusett, in northeast Montana.

Webster, South Dakota, chalked up 8 inches of snow and patchy freezing drizzle had deposited a thin layer of ice on roads in parts of northern South Dakota. Conditions were bad enough to force the Rapid City Regional Airport to close at one point Monday afternoon due to falling and blowing snow along with temperatures in the mid teens.

Parts of western and central Minnesota had measured over a foot of snow. The Minnesota Department of Transportation advised against travel in parts of western Minnesota, including Willmar and Montevideo, Monday afternoon.

Heavy snow spread into Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula Monday and Monday night. Several locations have reported over a foot of snow, with the peak totals from Astro now in far northern Wisconsin and the U.P.

Here are the top totals reported by state as of 12:30 p.m. CST Tuesday:

- Montana: 14.0 inches at Big Mountain Summit, Whitefish Ski Resort (elevation 6,737 feet), in northwest Montana.

- Wyoming: 11.3 inches near Lander.

- Colorado: 6.0 inches near Phippsburg in northwest Colorado.

- North Dakota: 8 inches near Bowman in southwest North Dakota.

- South Dakota: 9 inches east-northeast of Sisseton in the northeast corner of the state.

- Minnesota: 16.5 inches at St. Augusta in central Minnesota and at Cambridge in the Twin Cities metro.

- Wisconsin: 18 inches near Mellen in northwest Wisconsin.

- Michigan: 21.5 inches at Negaunee (National Weather Service-Marquette office).
Quoting 71. Neapolitan:

Yikes:





That should be illegal in November ;)
By the snow total report - I see that I got up to Alaska from Florida just in the nick of time. I arrived only a week ago and drove through most of those areas mentioned.
Anyone else want popcorn?

Still showing a good swath of snow
18z PGFS-



That's a big time severe weather setup (as Scott has mentioned) not to mention the snow and ice potential. It's a very long way off though and as Drak has been saying models are very inconsistent right now. There's potential for a significant storm, but it could also end up as a whole lot of nothing.
Quoting 235. Jedkins01:



That should be illegal in November ;)

looks more like a jan early feb forecast than November
Quoting 240. MAweatherboy1:

18z PGFS-



That's a big time severe weather setup (as Scott has mentioned) not to mention the snow and ice potential. It's a very long way off though and as Drak has been saying models are very inconsistent right now. There's potential for a significant storm, but it could also end up as a whole lot of nothing.


I was referring to the system on Sunday and Monday but the later time period has potential as well.
Quoting 228. GeoffreyWPB:

Perhaps a cool down for West Palm beginning of next week...




It's amazing how much different temps can be in South FL compared to North FL in the cooler seasons, here's our 7 day forecast by the NWS in Tallahassee, in contrast:

onight Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Calm wind.

Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph after midnight.

Thursday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Sunny, with a high near 59.

Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 36.

Saturday Sunny, with a high near 63.

Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Sunday A 50 percent chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 69.

Sunday Night A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Monday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.

Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 61.


















Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I'm out of the loop. I only know what you know based on what Scott said.

Weather related
Texas should be divided into 10 states based on physical geography and climate.
Florida - maybe 3 states (Panhandle and north Fl, Central Fl, South Fl/Keys)




illinois should be divided into 57,914 states based on this:
every state should be 1 square mile. Any state that is not 1 square mile should be increased or decreased to 1 square mile. :) :) :)
Quoting 230. Sfloridacat5:



I'm out of the loop. I only know what you know based on what Scott said.

Weather related
Texas should be divided into 10 states based on physical geography and climate.
Florida - maybe 3 states (Panhandle and north Fl, Central Fl, South Fl/Keys)







i like that color that map is showing all colors of the rain bow
Quoting 248. GeoffreyWPB:



Florida Weather Blog


yea, just popped back up I see.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z PGFS-



That's a big time severe weather setup (as Scott has mentioned) not to mention the snow and ice potential. It's a very long way off though and as Drak has been saying models are very inconsistent right now. There's potential for a significant storm, but it could also end up as a whole lot of nothing.

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!!!!!
*does the snow dance*
Quoting 241. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks more like a jan early feb forecast than November


It does, the forecasts around the Great Lakes region looks just like January as well, an extended period of daily chances for snow arriving with highs below freezing or only slightly above and lows in the teens to low 20's. Even for up there, that's too cold, too early for what most people would like.

Looks like you are going to endure a long cold winter, since winter looks to be coming early this year.

Even here in north Florida, the combination of highs in the 50's and 60's and lows in the 30's to low 40's with a possible couple freezes from Friday into next week is wintry for us. After the front comes through tomorrow night we aren't expected to hit 70 through the rest of the period and our warmest night will be still well into the 40's.


#truth..

You guys have a great evening :)





Quoting 252. ncstorm:

#truth..

You guys have a great evening :)








#polarvortex2014

Have a good one NC. :)
Quoting 251. Jedkins01:



It does, the forecasts around the Great Lakes region looks just like January as well, an extended period of daily chances for snow arriving with highs below freezing or only slightly above and lows in the teens to low 20's. Even for up there, that's too cold, too early for what most people would like.

Looks like you are going to endure a long cold winter, since winter looks to be coming early this year.

Even here in north Florida, the combination of highs in the 50's and 60's and lows in the 30's to low 40's with a possible couple freezes from Friday into next week is wintry for us. After the front comes through tomorrow night we aren't expected to hit 70 through the rest of the period and our warmest night will be still well into the 40's.



believe it or not we broke 60 today official airport temps show we reached a high of 62 today my pws reached 61.8 now down to 58.1 but tomorrow after front passes tonight will only have highs near 39 and slowly falling with squalls forming north and west of our area
I've always like the precipitation setup of Texas.
You have the green area where a rainy/humid climate transitions to a dry/semi arid climate.

I lived in San Antonio and there was a very noticeable difference in landscape/geography and vegetation from east of the city to west of the city.
That transition area (dry vs wet) continues up through Dallas and continues on to Oklahoma City.

east haven,conn
55F
Pressure 29.97 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Few 3700 ft
Dew Point 53 °F
Humidity 93%
Rainfall 0.00 in
Quoting 254. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

believe it or not we broke 60 today official airport temps show we reached a high of 62 today my pws reached 61.8 now down to 58.1 but tomorrow after front passes tonight will only have highs near 39 and slowly falling with squalls forming north and west of our area


Yeah its amazing how efficient cold fronts can be at bringing warm air north. It won't last though, even here tomorrow is our last warm day for a long time.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Anyone else want popcorn?

Still showing a good swath of snow

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! POPCORN!!!!! PLEASE!!!!!
*gets as much popcorn from the bowl as he possibly can, and sings Ganon your face while he does it.*
Looking to our 1st chance to see some snow here in NW Georgia maybe Sunday night and Monday. It snowed 2 weeks ago in Blue Ridge, Georgia area but none here. I am thinking maybe we eclipse our snow totals of last year which were about 16 inches all together. Much above what we had ever seen in my 5 years here in Calhoun,Georgia.
Quoting 259. Jedkins01:



Yeah its amazing how efficient cold fronts can be at bringing warm air north. It won't last though, even here tomorrow is our last warm day for a long time.
yeah our local office said this morning enjoy your 60 degree day today cause its the last 60 degrees you will see for quite some time

I figure it will be mid april before we get anywhere near 60 again so it will be awhile to go
Quoting 198. WaterWitch11:

pres�sure
noun
1.
the continuous physical force exerted on or against an object by something in contact with it.
"the slight extra pressure he applied to her hand"
the force exerted per unit area.
plural noun: pressures
"gas can be fed to the turbines at a pressure of around 250 psi"
synonyms: physical force, load, stress, thrust

If atmosphere feels pressure, does the land?
I saw two empty Mountain Dew cans racing he00 bent for election across an asphalt parking lot today. Wind pressure. ;)
that reminds me I have to go to the roof tomorrow and cover up the rain gauge part of the weather station to prevent any water from flash freezing inside and damaging the device

wont need it anyway time to break out the ruler to measure anything that falls
Tap's, Taps,

....now Tap's


Day is done, gone the sun,
From the lake, from the hills, from the sky;
All is well, safely rest, God is nigh.



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that reminds me I have to go to the roof tomorrow and cover up the rain gauge part of the weather station to prevent any water from flash freezing inside and damaging the device

wont need it anyway time to break out the ruler to measure anything that falls

kewl.
Quoting Naga5000:


#polarvortex2014

Have a good one NC. :)

speaking of polar vortexes, was the vortex that Washi posted earlier real?
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I saw two empty Mountain Dew cans racing he00 bent for election across an asphalt parking lot today. Wind pressure. ;)

lololololololololol
While the focus is on the ongoing blast of arctic air across most of the United States, it's worth noting the feature that's delivering these frigid temperatures to begin with, a massive Alaskan ridge. 500mb heights are forecast to continue rising to well above average values in 30 hours (translating to ~570dm), or approximately 4 standard deviations above average. 2-meter temperatures are expected to persistently remain 20-40F above average (highs in the 20s and 30s), which comparatively, is still pretty chilly for us in the lower 48. :)

Also, note that anomalously strong trough being forecast across Japan. That should teleconnect to an East Coast trough in the days preceding Thanksgiving, signaling a continuation of winter-like weather across our country.



263. Barefootontherocks
5:35 PM CST on November 11, 2014
1
Quoting 198. WaterWitch11:

pressure
noun
1.
the continuous physical force exerted on or against an object by something in contact with it.
"the slight extra pressure he applied to her hand"
the force exerted per unit area.
plural noun: pressures
"gas can be fed to the turbines at a pressure of around 250 psi"
synonyms: physical force, load, stress, thrust

If atmosphere feels pressure, does the land?



Quoting 263. Barefootontherocks:

I saw two empty Mountain Dew cans racing he00 bent for election across an asphalt parking lot today. Wind pressure. ;)


Very Cool.

T and Nola Roux say's Hi' to both of you..from here Uptown again.


Quoting 254. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

believe it or not we broke 60 today official airport temps show we reached a high of 62 today my pws reached 61.8 now down to 58.1 but tomorrow after front passes tonight will only have highs near 39 and slowly falling with squalls forming north and west of our area

We didn't get much better, Low 62.5, High 67.9
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:47 PM PST on November 11, 2014
Overcast
63.0 °F / 17.2 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 63%
Dew Point: 50 °F / 10 °C
Wind: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the West
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph / 9.7 km/h
Pressure: 29.88 in / 1012 hPa (Falling)
Visibility:
Harris Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Special Statement
Statement as of 2:25 PM CST on November 11, 2014
...Colder air moving into southeast Texas today...

A strong cold front has moved through the area today allowing temperatures to fall into the 50s. Temperatures will continue to fall and low temperatures Thursday morning will fall into the 30s over much of the region. Some guidance is showing freezing temperatures for our northern counties Thursday morning but given the clouds and winds have held off on freezing temperatures for now.

The coldest morning of the season is expected on Friday as high pressure settles over the Southern Plains. Areas north of a Brenham to Woodlands to Liberty line will likely see freezing temperatures for six to eight hours. Areas north of a Caldwell to Livingston line could see temperatures in the upper 20s. Further south parts of rural Brazoria... Matagorda... and Fort Bend counties could see freezing temperatures Friday morning for an hour or so. A freeze warning will likely be required Friday morning.

The unseasonably cold weather will persist through the weekend with only slight warming for Saturday and Sunday. A developing storm system will bring a good chance of rain to the coast late Saturday into early Sunday.


Quoting 196. GeorgiaStormz:



So is that just the name they gave to the GFS Upgrade? Wasn't it supposed to replace the old GFS? Has it been proven to be more accurate yet?


Current GFS vs "New" GFS Scorecard
Quoting 272. nrtiwlnvragn:



Current GFS vs "New" GFS Scorecard


Impressive to see a lot of improvements at the 99.9% significant level.
Quoting 273. Drakoen:



Impressive to see a lot of improvements at the 99.9% significant level.


Lot of down arrows too
Quoting 266. 62901IL:


kewl.

speaking of polar vortexes, was the vortex that Washi posted earlier real?
no it was a special effect for the scifi adventure movie The Day After Tomorrow

the depiction is a group of 3 hyper storms traveling 25 miles up into the stratosphere and drag super cold air down from stratospheric levels to the surface creating a varied of extreme weather events and a flash glacial period in a very short term time frame caused by the disruption of the Thermohaline currents from melting and destruction of ice on the Antarctic continent
276. silas

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
While the focus is on the ongoing blast of arctic air across most of the United States, it's worth noting the feature that's delivering these frigid temperatures to begin with, a massive Alaskan ridge. 500mb heights are forecast to continue rising to well above average values in 30 hours (translating to ~570dm), or approximately 4 standard deviations above average. 2-meter temperatures are expected to persistently remain 20-40F above average (highs in the 20s and 30s), which comparatively, is still pretty chilly for us in the lower 48. :)

Also, note that anomalously strong trough being forecast across Japan. That should teleconnect to an East Coast trough in the days preceding Thanksgiving, signaling a continuation of winter-like weather across our country.



Thanks for your in depth analysis, TA13. You seem to know way more than most of our local meteorologists :)
question is is it really science fiction
Not as good out at 120 hrs Atlantic







West Pacific clearly better





cold weather!!!!
Quoting 255. 62901IL:
has Scott been banned forever or is he still here?
Scott, please respond.


Bang!

Quoting 273. Drakoen:



Impressive to see a lot of improvements at the 99.9% significant level.


It's encouraging, but the overall NHEM anomaly correlation score has only been a hair better than the old GFS for some time now. The last 30 days have the parallel GFS at 0.879, and the old GFS at 0.873. Considering the ECMWF is up at 0.911 and the UKMET at 0.893, that improvement in the GFS is pretty small, even if it is statistically significant. Of course this doesn't tell the whole story, but I would like to see that number go up. GFS needs to be at 0.89 to be competitive.

Quoting 280. StormTrackerScott:



Bang!


its actually at the 204 hr too 240 hr

Each run these trofs get bigger..

Model Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making
Quoting 270. PedleyCA:

We didn't get much better, Low 62.5, High 67.9
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:47 PM PST on November 11, 2014
Overcast
63.0 °F / 17.2 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 63%
Dew Point: 50 °F / 10 °C
Wind: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the West
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph / 9.7 km/h
Pressure: 29.88 in / 1012 hPa (Falling)
Visibility:


Didn't see the sun once today. Loved it.
Quoting 286. hydrus:

Each run these trofs get bigger..


THAT BIG!!!
Quoting Dakster:


How are things in your area Sar?

Plenty warm up here in Alaska... In the +40s here.

How is a frost quake different from a frost heave?
Been perfect here, with a high of 78. If it was like this everyday we'd have to beat people off with a stick...but then summer comes. :-) I think some of your warm air is courtesy of ex-Nuri, that dragged an amazing amount of relatively warm air (for Alaska) up into the Bering Sea. That's not going to last forever, but it does look like ex-Nuri is going to burn itself out as sea and not cause any big problems.

I've never heard of a frost earthquake. I've heard of ice heaves large enough that, if you were close, it felt and sounded like an earthquake. There has been a few unverified studies linking tropical cyclone rains in places with histories of deforestation, landslides, and earthquakes, where extremely large amounts of water getting into faults, lubricate them and make them slip. Sounds a little iffy to me. Frost heaves, though you will easily locate in the spring. :-)
Quoting 291. sar2401:

Been perfect here, with a high of 78. If it was like this everyday we'd have to beat people off with a stick...but then summer comes. :-) I think some of your warm air is courtesy of ex-Nuri, that dragged an amazing amount of relatively warm air (for Alaska) up into the Bering Sea. That's not going to last forever, but it does look like ex-Nuri is going to burn itself out as sea and not cause any big problems.

I've never heard of a frost earthquake. I've heard of ice heaves large enough that, if you were close, it felt and sounded like an earthquake. There has been a few unverified studies linking tropical cyclone rains in places with histories of deforestation, landslides, and earthquakes, where extremely large amounts of water getting into faults, lubricate them and make them slip. Sounds a little iffy to me. Frost heaves, though you will easily locate in the spring. :-)
A cryoseism, also known as an ice quake or a frost quake,[1][2] may be caused by a sudden cracking action in frozen soil or rock saturated with water or ice.[3] As water drains into ground, it may eventually freeze and expand under colder temperatures, putting stress on its surroundings. This stress builds up until relieved explosively in the form of a cryoseism.[4]
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Current GFS vs "New" GFS Scorecard
What happened with bias heights? Seems to have been almost a complete miss there.
Quoting 291. sar2401:

Been perfect here, with a high of 78. If it was like this everyday we'd have to beat people off with a stick...but then summer comes. :-) I think some of your warm air is courtesy of ex-Nuri, that dragged an amazing amount of relatively warm air (for Alaska) up into the Bering Sea. That's not going to last forever, but it does look like ex-Nuri is going to burn itself out as sea and not cause any big problems.

I've never heard of a frost earthquake. I've heard of ice heaves large enough that, if you were close, it felt and sounded like an earthquake. There has been a few unverified studies linking tropical cyclone rains in places with histories of deforestation, landslides, and earthquakes, where extremely large amounts of water getting into faults, lubricate them and make them slip. Sounds a little iffy to me. Frost heaves, though you will easily locate in the spring. :-)


Ohhh I know all about frost heaves.... Just drive from Destruction Bay, Yukon to the Alaska border. Anytime of the year.

Someone had mentioned frost earthquakes and I didn't know that was.

BTW - Hope all our Veterans had a good Veteran's Day. And it brings me to one of my favorite bumper stickers.

"If you can read this, Thank a Teacher. Thank a Soldier it's in English."
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
A cryoseism, also known as an ice quake or a frost quake,[1][2] may be caused by a sudden cracking action in frozen soil or rock saturated with water or ice.[3] As water drains into ground, it may eventually freeze and expand under colder temperatures, putting stress on its surroundings. This stress builds up until relieved explosively in the form of a cryoseism.[4]
Just one more reason not live in an area where rocks freeze and blow up. :-)
Quoting 292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

A cryoseism, also known as an ice quake or a frost quake,[1][2] may be caused by a sudden cracking action in frozen soil or rock saturated with water or ice.[3] As water drains into ground, it may eventually freeze and expand under colder temperatures, putting stress on its surroundings. This stress builds up until relieved explosively in the form of a cryoseism.[4]


Thanks KOTG... I knew I should have consulted the book of all knowledge. (google).


storm moving out to sea
Quoting 295. sar2401:

Just one more reason not live in an area where rocks freeze and blow up. :-)
they most often occur at peak cold hrs from 2am in the morning till near or just after sunrise

7 day mean temps in the historical range per the CPC for the Western Gulf Coast.

I am hoping we get an el ninio since I do not want a repeat of last winter (temperature-wise). This early snow and cold is kind of a bad sign, and the forecast does not help.

I would like to see some interesting winter storms later this year though, and el ninio unusually aids in big winter storm development in my area.
Speaking of the UKMET, it's track of the LP through the southeast U.S. looks similar to the ECMWF but 12 hours behind.
Quoting 299. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

they most often occur at peak cold hrs from 2am in the morning till near or just after sunrise




How strong are they, usually?
look what came back from the dead

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/0000 UTC 18.9N 107.2W T1.0/1.0 FAUSTO -- East Pacific
11/2030 UTC 9.3N 85.1E T1.0/1.0 99W -- Bay of Bengal
11/1800 UTC 18.8N 108.3W T1.0/1.5 96E -- East Pacific
11/1430 UTC 9.4N 86.1E T1.0/1.0 99W -- Bay of Bengal
11/1200 UTC 20.0N 109.1W T1.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific
Quoting 303. FunnelVortex:



How strong are they, usually?
Quoting 303. FunnelVortex:



How strong are they, usually?
there is no movement like a normal quake this is loud noises booming or popping sounds had them happen last winter here so much it even cause a city inspector to call about complaints he was receiving i told him what it was the next day he called me back and said he hear them too that night at his building and he was writing off the complaint as caused by the extreme cold
Quoting 305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is no movement like a normal quake this is loud noises booming or popping sounds had them happen last winter here so much it even cause a city inspector to call about complaints he was receiving i told him what it was the next day he called me back and said he hear them too that night at his building and he was writing off the complaint as caused by the extreme cold


Probably below 2 on the Richter scale then
12/0000 UTC 18.9N 107.2W T1.0/1.0 FAUSTO -- East Pacific its back!!
it happen right after the ice storm and temps fell to the -10 f range for overnight lows for a little while
310. flsky
In the Daytona Beach area the big thing - besides football - is the Turkey Run. Huge car show. Formally at the track, but also at large parking lots everywhere. Fun stuff - a huge number of great looking cars everywhere.
Quoting 152. ricderr:

I think the South always has Turkey Day fun. :-) Wow, that's 16 days away. I really need to get going on fun planning


only 16 days out?....it's a lock
311. flsky
I was lucky enough to see one of these off the coast of Ponce Inlet, FL one day.
Quoting 134. ricderr:

I was gobsmacked (UK term) when I saw this. I've never seen anything remotely like it. Looks like something from a sci-fi alien invasion movie. I'm sure the very informed weather folk on here will say "Oh, yeh, that's just 'such and such'. You see it a lot in (wherever). But I'd be grateful for an explanation.


morning glory
Subsurface warm is growing in size. With the SOI at -13 on the 30 day mean this should support a moderate El-Nino by Spring.

Quoting 312. StormTrackerScott:

Subsurface warm is growing in size. With the SOI at -13 on the 30 day mean this should support a moderate El-Nino by Spring.


maybe late winter for moderate El-Nino to
Quoting 313. hurricanes2018:
maybe late winter for moderate El-Nino to


Yeah not looking good for a decent hurricane season next year.

Look at the Sea Level rise next July across nino 3.4. Very impressive. That means a strong Subsurface warm could surface in that timeframe. It really makes you wonder if we still might see a El-nino rivaling that of 1997 next year I think we would have seen that this year but the SOI wasn't able to switch to negative as the trade winds never reversed for a sustained period near Tahiti.


52/68 Monday and 55/79 today. Last measurable rain on October 15th.


right up to 1 and maybe 2 by july of 2015 El-Nino to


A circumhorizontal arc over Zephyrhills, FL today. It's an ice-halo formed by sunlight being refracted by plate-shaped ice crystals in high level cirrus clouds. Pic courtesy of Jeff Girard.
Quoting 260. 62901IL:


YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! POPCORN!!!!! PLEASE!!!!!
*gets as much popcorn from the bowl as he possibly can, and sings Ganon your face while he does it.*



Im wondering when Greenville, SC gets in on the snow action.
320. vis0

Quoting 198. WaterWitch11:

pres�sure
noun
1.
the continuous physical force exerted on or against an object by something in contact with it.
"the slight extra pressure he applied to her hand"
the force exerted per unit area.
plural noun: pressures
"gas can be fed to the turbines at a pressure of around 250 psi"
synonyms: physical force, load, stress, thrust

If atmosphere feels pressure, does the land?
Just read the #198 comment @1003PM ET so i figure its been answered then it took me 12mins to find the pg .  forgot the post #, geesh, thats not a good start to a reply.

My 2 replies; NOT FACTUAL nor googled i reply from my own brain therefore do not take anything i post as the correct reply as far as physics is concerned.

(if i remember  my JHS sci, Thank Professor Horan may he rest in peace )
PHYSICS::
Pressure changes due to the molecules expanding (discoing) or contracting (chilly out in the corner) yet that also influenced by the medium the molecules are in; Gas, liquid, solid (i add  plasma, ethereal wasn't incl. in JHS 1970s)

In a scientific manner the air around us is separated into atmospheres this separation / categorizing is done by measuring and observing temperature gradient and where they reverse. (meaning if the temperature is increasing as you rise through the air then at a certain point the temperature  begins to decrease, at that change of temperature direction (falling to rising or vice versa) the "air" can be categorized as 2 different atmospheres and so on).  

To me land has a mix of pressures because its not one similar solid (substance/element) being joined/mixed at a certain level.  In one cross section of  land one can
have the pressure of Solid Iron rock and a rock made of compressed sand  and just those 2 examples of whats within the land have different molecular  "dances" even at the same "temperature", maybe between  the mantels the fluid holds a steady pressure

GALACSICS (my expertise...actually only one that uses "galacsics" so there is no competition, meaning i could be wrong in the following explanation, but i've used the rules of what i call galacsics for over 40yrs as to my inventions)::

Be it to TRIGGER (NOT CREATE) earthquakes or INFLUENCE  (NOT CONTROL) weather (an area of nature) as to micro managing nature one needs NOT the use of pressure, but a CONSTANT flow of a temperature cooler than the temperature that the "cooler" temperature is replacing. If this can be done in a manner where NO PHYSICALLY grounded machines are used nature will allow that cooler temperature to reach both (distance) extremes as to the planet's biosphere. The reason for no physically (BUT ethereally grounded) device is to create such a long flow (in distance & duration) one has to go via the sieves of ABSOLUTE ZERO so those streams of cooler temperatures are too "small" to be measure by physics alone but...oh wait i forgot i'm a nut and i'm slowing tapering off my blogbytes (wxu sites too good to leave but am trying to only read or comment on weather. (yet if you like anything on my blog save it before its not ,peace
Big changes with regards to the H500 and surface features on the GFS 00z. Much more moisture and its starting to look like the more amped ensemble members.
Quoting 321. Drakoen:
Big changes with regards to the H500 and surface features on the GFS 00z. Much more moisture and its starting to look like the more amped ensemble members.


You and I were on the same page.

Decent November storm for the eastern Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys up through the interior northeast coming very close to being something special for the coast with borderline surface temperatures.
Obama announces climate change agreement with China to cut greenhouse gas emissions over next 2 decades.

White House and China set historic greenhouse emissions levels

Beijing (CNN) -- At the end of a trade summit in China, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a climate change agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping that would cut both countries' greenhouse gas emissions by close to a third over the next two decades.
Under the agreement, the United States would cut between 26-28% of the level of its carbon emissions set in 2005 by 2025, and China would do the same by 2030. The administration hopes the announcement by the two superpowers will spur other nations to do the same. The White House said the ultimate target is to "achieve deep economy-wide reductions on the order of 80% by 2050."

A senior administration official calls the goals both "ambitious and achievable," but also acknowledged that U.S. domestic politics could put a damper on the announcement. Saying "leading climate deniers" in the GOP might try to stop the initiative, the official hinted the President may act alone if necessary.
"Congress may try to stop us, but we believe that with control of Congress changing hands we can proceed with the authority we already have." The official added, "This is really the crusade of a narrow group of people who are politically motivated and have made this a cause celebre, but we believe we will be successful."


The administration hopes to sell the plan back home by touting the anticipated savings on energy costs. "Consumers and businesses will save literally billions of dollars" a senior administration official said. The plan offers initiatives and incentives to develop more solar and wind power across both countries, the official said.
Another official said the agreement "won't all fall together in five minutes," but hopes this will demonstrate to other nations that working together to reduce carbon emissions would prove that "we can work together to enhance deployment of sustainable clean technologies."
In a statement, the White House said the announcement marks the first time China has agreed to cut its carbon emissions, and said the Chinese are calling for "an energy revolution" that would include a broad economic reform program that would address air pollution. China has agreed to provide an "additional 800-1,000 gigawatts of nuclear, wind, solar and other zero emission generation capacity by 2030, more than all the coal-fired power plants that exist in China today and close to total current electricity generation capacity in the United States."

During the President's visit, the Chinese government closed factories and gave employees time off to reduce car traffic and, ultimately, emissions in Beijing. The reduction of smog and the appearance of blue skies was noted by media throughout the APEC Summit.
Another senior administration official said that historically, the United States and China have often been seen as antagonists, so this "should send a powerful message," and "will usher in a new day, where the U.S. and China can work as partners."

Go Obama!
Foundation being laid for the 2nd storm later next week. I am calling this the "Hail Mary". That second system with could Arctic very far south could open up a can of worms the likes some have never seen before in November.


Here's storm #2 next week just off of California.


Anytime you see Alaska this warm in mid November then the US is in trouble as that means ridging is nosing up near the Poles while dropping the Arctic high into the US. Remember the Euro weekly I posted earlier? I'll post it again if need be as i am fine driving 80 in a 60.

First freeze in Central FL. before Thanksgiving?
Quoting 329. GTstormChaserCaleb:
First freeze in Central FL. before Thanksgiving?


I think so. I like where we are going with this pattern the next few weeks. Too much snow cover across the US later next week for FL not to get a freeze soon after.

LOL! Oh my. This is gonna be fun.

Freeze might get close to us next week GT.

Both the GFS and PGFS 00z runs agree on an lp forming over the southeast and strengthening moving northeast and west of the benchmark.
Quoting 333. Drakoen:
Both the GFS and PGFS 00z runs agree on an lp forming over the southeast and strengthening moving northeast and west of the benchmark.


335. vis0

336. vis0
■ El Niño & Other Oscillations(http://www.whoi.edu/main/topic/el-nino-other-osci llations#) also try their "READ MORE" links you'll get the following explained:
(similar to Wxu's meaning but has other info)
Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD),     but wait there more...  Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)  and will throw in...    Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA) Pattern
so "act" now!!! (4-5 months to understand but its worth it.

■ Fukushima Radioactivity Detected Off West Coast  (as other wxu members posted of days ago)
http://www.whoi.edu/news-release/Fukushima-detect ion
Sigh, and please... to me, El Nino is just as much a function of "climate" as it is of "weather", and if they can't accurately predict an El Nino event, and its strength, even two months in advance, nor the strength of a solar cycle six months ahead, then how the heck can they predict the "facts" of the Earth's climate 50-80 years from now.

Frankly, it's totally foolish to think that they ever can. You may think differently, but, to me, you're just lying to yourselves based on what you perceive as "obvious". :(

Jo
Quoting 337. flibinite:

Sigh, and please... to me, El Nino is just as much a function of "climate" as it is of "weather", and if they can't accurately predict an El Nino event, and its strength, even two months in advance, nor the strength of a solar cycle six months ahead, then how the heck can they predict the "facts" of the Earth's climate 50-80 years from now.

Frankly, it's totally foolish to think that they ever can. You may think differently, but, to me, you're just lying to yourselves based on what you perceive as "obvious". :(

Jo

Projecting your ignorance on others. So you can't even predict that in 50-80 years from now winters will be colder than summers and Greenland will be colder than Ghana and you don't even know that carbondioxide is a GHG. Silly.
LOLOL... no, don't tell me how I'm wrong about my obvious facts about being unable to predict two of the greatest drivers of global temperatures... just cite the guesses you've been fed, and, again, how "obvious" things are.

Do YOU know how strong El Nino will be in three years, or if we'll even have one then (considering they "blame" some years' high global heat on strong El Ninos)? Do you know what solar activity will be in ten years?

If you don't, then just admit you don't have a single clue what the global climate will be in 2025, much less 2100. Stop drinking the predictive Kool-Aid and realize that even the greatest, most well-programmed climate models are guessing on half their future inputs, and are thus left to "guess" on things relating to global temperatures even five years from now, much less 80. Sheesh....

Where is the actual, provable logic anymore?

I mean it, all you GW people, including Dr. Masters. Please give me any proof... even the slightest bit of proof... that you *know* what solar output will be in 20 years. Anyone? Anyone, willing to stake everything they've ever "known" on a prediction?

Of course not. You may be right, certainly, but to be so certain just totally denies everything we *don't* know right now, and can barely even guess accurately. :(

Jo
Quoting 324. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Obama announces climate change agreement with China to cut greenhouse gas emissions over next 2 decades.

White House and China set historic greenhouse emissions levels

Beijing (CNN) -- At the end of a trade summit in China, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a climate change agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping that would cut both countries' greenhouse gas emissions by close to a third over the next two decades.
Under the agreement, the United States would cut between 26-28% of the level of its carbon emissions set in 2005 by 2025, and China would do the same by 2030. The administration hopes the announcement by the two superpowers will spur other nations to do the same. The White House said the ultimate target is to "achieve deep economy-wide reductions on the order of 80% by 2050."

A senior administration official calls the goals both "ambitious and achievable," but also acknowledged that U.S. domestic politics could put a damper on the announcement. Saying "leading climate deniers" in the GOP might try to stop the initiative, the official hinted the President may act alone if necessary.
"Congress may try to stop us, but we believe that with control of Congress changing hands we can proceed with the authority we already have." The official added, "This is really the crusade of a narrow group of people who are politically motivated and have made this a cause celebre, but we believe we will be successful."


The administration hopes to sell the plan back home by touting the anticipated savings on energy costs. "Consumers and businesses will save literally billions of dollars" a senior administration official said. The plan offers initiatives and incentives to develop more solar and wind power across both countries, the official said.
Another official said the agreement "won't all fall together in five minutes," but hopes this will demonstrate to other nations that working together to reduce carbon emissions would prove that "we can work together to enhance deployment of sustainable clean technologies."
In a statement, the White House said the announcement marks the first time China has agreed to cut its carbon emissions, and said the Chinese are calling for "an energy revolution" that would include a broad economic reform program that would address air pollution. China has agreed to provide an "additional 800-1,000 gigawatts of nuclear, wind, solar and other zero emission generation capacity by 2030, more than all the coal-fired power plants that exist in China today and close to total current electricity generation capacity in the United States."

During the President's visit, the Chinese government closed factories and gave employees time off to reduce car traffic and, ultimately, emissions in Beijing. The reduction of smog and the appearance of blue skies was noted by media throughout the APEC Summit.
Another senior administration official said that historically, the United States and China have often been seen as antagonists, so this "should send a powerful message," and "will usher in a new day, where the U.S. and China can work as partners."

Go Obama!



There aren't too many times I agree with Obama, but occasionally I do, this is one of them.

Its funny how so many many reject AGW energy reform, when its going to save customers and business money in the long term anyway even without discussing the environmental benefits which, are great regardless if one believes in AGW. Which then tells me that people are just scared of change, as well as thinking ahead.

The sad thing is, we've been taught the mentality of live for now and not think about tomorrow mentality for so long in the culture of American consumerism. It's hard to get people to understand the benefits of initial sacrifice for long term benefit.

Of course, many will say its about preventing the government from gaining too much power, to protect American rights. But I call B.S., because if we continue using inefficient energy, the long term problems it will cause will lead to economic problems, environmental problems, that will inevitably lead to forced governmental control. Why? Because when things collapse, the private industry dies. Look at the Great depression. If we just plow along with dirty energy, we'll have another one of those, along with a much dirtier Earth that can't just be fixed. The inevitable would be economic collapse and martial law.

I don't know about you, but that doesn't sound like a good idea to keep keep the future of American freedom and prosperity bright, does it?

I would think even for those who don't believe in AGW despite the evidence, that the reason I mentioned would rally support for clean energy growth.
I don't believe or disbelieve in GW, Jedkins... only that the proof they have for it is specious, and based on "obvious" theories and computer models that are only as good as the predicted facts they're given, and human guesses about how everything in the global atmosphere will/does interact and respond, long-term.

That said, everyone wants "cleaner air"... at least in general... but that's a rather "cheap" driver for pushing people to agree with it. But, when businesses leave countries and regions because of environmental regulations that don't truly exist elsewhere, how much is gained? If our country's (or any country's) economy starts to collapse because of rather overweening environmentalism, who actually cares what MIGHT happen in 50 years if everything falls apart well before we reach that date?

We're that close to the edge right now, and at the tipping point.

I'm not saying I know, or am right, but what good is clean air everywhere if there is/are economic collapses everywhere, for whatever financial reasons, along with subsequent riots and wars and descents into chaos? What is gained, for *humans*?

GW believers might not think such things possible, I know, but truthfully, they are far, far more possible than the computer guesses made for even "just" 2050, much less 2100. :(

Jo
Society needs to use a lot of energy or it will collapse. Its mainly a population issue. The global warming/climate change concept is a valid one, and a lot of good has come of it all, for example the new "clean" coal plant built by southern company. The problem is in the delivery and tone of the messengers. in the next 10 years, the earth may experience generally cooler weather in the USA, which will could very well damage the climate change momentum. Right now, I'd say climate change is losing as many as its gaining mainly because the mnessengers are too over the top with their doom and gloom , and act as if it is impossible for anything else to happen. Well, that will prove to be their downfall imo, the attitude does not seem scientific. The global warming/ciimate change folks need to adjust their message, not just the name and be a little more skeptical of their own predictions and guesses. The certainty of all the doom and gloom seems unrealistic given the complexity and vastness of the system involved and that is why people are wondering if it is some half made up BS story invented by al gore


very cold in denver this morning
344. MahFL
Quoting 341. flibinite:

We're that close to the edge right now, and at the tipping point.


What evidence do you provide to back up your sweeping statement ?
Jeeez, reading back you would think that trying to cut down on this



is a bad thing! Who knew!
346. MahFL
In the UK when I was a kid if the wind blew in from the east you could smell the pollution from the soviet bloc, indeed people used to call the police as they thought there was a gas leak or something. ( For you Americans that meant the pollution had to travel about 500 miles).
Quoting 339. flibinite:

LOLOL... no, don't tell me how I'm wrong about my obvious facts about being unable to predict two of the greatest drivers of global temperatures... just cite the guesses you've been fed, and, again, how "obvious" things are.

Do YOU know how strong El Nino will be in three years, or if we'll even have one then (considering they "blame" some years' high global heat on strong El Ninos)? Do you know what solar activity will be in ten years?

If you don't, then just admit you don't have a single clue what the global climate will be in 2025, much less 2100. Stop drinking the predictive Kool-Aid and realize that even the greatest, most well-programmed climate models are guessing on half their future inputs, and are thus left to "guess" on things relating to global temperatures even five years from now, much less 80. Sheesh....

Where is the actual, provable logic anymore?

I mean it, all you GW people, including Dr. Masters. Please give me any proof... even the slightest bit of proof... that you *know* what solar output will be in 20 years. Anyone? Anyone, willing to stake everything they've ever "known" on a prediction?

Of course not. You may be right, certainly, but to be so certain just totally denies everything we *don't* know right now, and can barely even guess accurately. :(

Jo


One thing is making questionable projections about the climate ,another thing is to deny FACTS that has been happening in the past and they are happening in the present.
GW is a fact. Ask glaciologists/geologists if you think all climatologists are corrupt.
About the future, we don't know with certain, but there are thousands of ridicolous deniers who are indeed SURE the world is heading towards a new ice age. Those clowns have been postponing the G-day for years and when global climatic data keeps showing a clear GW, they mess with the numbers, look for conspirancy theories and accuse the climatologists to trick data and weather stations, when the deniers are the truly biased data manipulators.
Lovely:

Quoting 324. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Under the agreement, the United States would cut between 26-28% of the level of its carbon emissions set in 2005 by 2025, and China would do the same by 2030.


Not exactly sure how accurate this is. CBS 880 Radio this morning said although US agreed to cut nearly 30% of it's carbon emissions, China agreed to reach "peak emissions" by 2030... whatever that means... not "China would do the same." Then again, it was roughly 630 AM, and I'm off coffee for the time being.
We'll have to see how this changes over time.
I'm not so sure we'll see temps this cold next week (it's possible, but probably inland locations away from the coast).
We'll probably see low to mid 40s in the city (Fort Myers).
Quoting 341. flibinite:

I don't believe or disbelieve in GW, Jedkins... only that the proof they have for it is specious, and based on "obvious" theories and computer models that are only as good as the predicted facts they're given, and human guesses about how everything in the global atmosphere will/does interact and respond, long-term.

That said, everyone wants "cleaner air"... at least in general... but that's a rather "cheap" driver for pushing people to agree with it. But, when businesses leave countries and regions because of environmental regulations that don't truly exist elsewhere, how much is gained? If our country's (or any country's) economy starts to collapse because of rather overweening environmentalism, who actually cares what MIGHT happen in 50 years if everything falls apart well before we reach that date?

We're that close to the edge right now, and at the tipping point.

I'm not saying I know, or am right, but what good is clean air everywhere if there is/are economic collapses everywhere, for whatever financial reasons, along with subsequent riots and wars and descents into chaos? What is gained, for *humans*?

GW believers might not think such things possible, I know, but truthfully, they are far, far more possible than the computer guesses made for even "just" 2050, much less 2100. :(

Jo

You're certainly free to "believe" or "disbelieve" whatever you wish. But the evidence in support of GW theory is vast and solid, and growing more so each day. To most scientists, then, it's not at all a matter of belief; it is, quite simply, a matter of fact. (And some might look upon computer models as mere "guesses", but that opinion belies a profound ignorance of how models actually work.)

Our modern civilization is teetering on the precipice. That means it's time for action, not hysterical ideological rhetoric about how "overweening environmentalism" is going to lead to "economic collapses everywhere". Yes, there'll be economic collapses in the coming years--but as any credible, knowledgeable, objective person will tell you, it won't be because of anti-pollution regulation. And that, too, is a fact--no matter what they tell you on Fox...
Quoting 339. flibinite:

Do you know what solar activity will be in ten years?

Please give me any proof... even the slightest bit of proof... that you *know* what solar output will be in 20 years. Anyone? Anyone, willing to stake everything they've ever "known" on a prediction?

Of course not. You may be right, certainly, but to be so certain just totally denies everything we *don't* know right now, and can barely even guess accurately. :(

Jo

You will now pay me for your 'requirements'. Also you will prove to me the sun will come up tomorrow AND the Yellowstone won't explode. Come on. Prove it.
But I think you are so totally lost in this world that right now you are not daring to leave your bed let alone type anything and well I'd be quite okay with that.

You really need to quit projecting YOUR ignorance on other people. If you want to talk and be taken seriously you will now study what climate modelling really is instead of shouting your 'I know nuffin' so noboby knows nuffin'' around. Thank you.
Quoting 341. flibinite:

I don't believe or disbelieve in GW, Jedkins... only that the proof they have for it is specious, and based on "obvious" theories and computer models that are only as good as the predicted facts they're given, and human guesses about how everything in the global atmosphere will/does interact and respond, long-term.

That said, everyone wants "cleaner air"... at least in general... but that's a rather "cheap" driver for pushing people to agree with it. But, when businesses leave countries and regions because of environmental regulations that don't truly exist elsewhere, how much is gained? If our country's (or any country's) economy starts to collapse because of rather overweening environmentalism, who actually cares what MIGHT happen in 50 years if everything falls apart well before we reach that date?

We're that close to the edge right now, and at the tipping point.

I'm not saying I know, or am right, but what good is clean air everywhere if there is/are economic collapses everywhere, for whatever financial reasons, along with subsequent riots and wars and descents into chaos? What is gained, for *humans*?

GW believers might not think such things possible, I know, but truthfully, they are far, far more possible than the computer guesses made for even "just" 2050, much less 2100. :(

Jo



On the other hand, who cares how great the economy is 50 years from now if we can't breathe the air, can't drink the water, and the weather conditions that made our entire agriculture system possible are a distant memory?

Remember, getting rid of the EPA benefits a small percentage of wealthy people, and a relatively small sector of other jobs. Entire industries have built up based on improved technology and improved environments. Clearly, even with the EPA, the petrochemical industry hasn't exactly suffered.

Cleaning up the atmosphere might reduce some profits, and might result in job losses. That is a hardship, though the people reaping the profits can withstand it a whole lot better than the rest of us. But do we really want to go back to the old Pittsburgh? The old Cayahoga river ablaze? Do we want to bring back the stench of the paper mills of 30 years ago?

Let's make the air and water dirtier. Yeah, that's a good plan for the future. Because let's face it, not everybody's child deserves clean air and water, right?
Quoting 353. yoboi:




yeah...the climate models have it figured out.....NOT....


How many times are you going to re-post this graph? 10, 100, 1000? Multiple others on this and Dr. Roods blog have proven why this particular graph is complete garbage so many times that its approaching the sublime.
Friends of ours in Terrier-Rouge, Haiti sent us some pictures of the flooding they are experiencing. I'll try to figure out how to upload the photos. So sad. One of our friends has his mattress on the floor of his home. He won't be able to use it again until the flooding recedes. Fortunately he was able to get his suitcase we gave him up before the water came in. (He uses the suitcase as a "dresser" for keeping his clothes.)
Quoting 355. islander44:


On the other hand, who cares how great the economy is 50 years from now if we can't breathe the air, can't drink the water, and the weather conditions that made our entire agriculture system possible are a distant memory?

Remember, getting rid of the EPA benefits a small percentage of wealthy people, and a relatively small sector of other jobs. Entire industries have built up based on improved technology and improved environments. Clearly, even with the EPA, the petrochemical industry hasn't exactly suffered.

Cleaning up the atmosphere might reduce some profits, and might result in job losses. That is a hardship, though the people reaping the profits can withstand it a whole lot better than the rest of us. But do we really want to go back to the old Pittsburgh? The old Cayahoga river ablaze? Do we want to bring back the stench of the paper mills of 30 years ago?

Let's make the air and water dirtier. Yeah, that's a good plan for the future. Because let's face it, not everybody's child deserves clean air and water, right?


Growing up in Maine in the 80's, you could forecast the weather based on the intensity of the stench from the papermill 25 miles to the southeast. Heavy stench meant SE winds which meant rain.
Quoting 349. LongIslandBeaches:



Not exactly sure how accurate this is. CBS 880 Radio this morning said although US agreed to cut nearly 30% of it's carbon emissions, China agreed to reach "peak emissions" by 2030... whatever that means... not "China would do the same." Then again, it was roughly 630 AM, and I'm off coffee for the time being.


Its simple, China will reach "peak" by 2030. That means they will do nothing while our "supreme leader" will further damage our economy as well as our place in the global economy.
Certainly all the "GW scientist" on this site can see this, no?
I ask you all on the global warming side, is this agreement what you wanted to see? Is this going to work for the world?
I don't see it-
Anybody remember that El Nino was named for the Christ Child because it appeared around Christmas? I have waited all summer for someone to remember that it would probably finally appear then. It is no surprise that it seems to be ramping up now.
By the way, Alaska is currently setting multiple record high temperatures. As such, the ice box of Wyoming is not the only landmass on Earth right now, and does not get to dictate future climate trends for the remainder of all eternity.
362. yoboi
Quoting 356. tlawson48:



How many times are you going to re-post this graph? 10, 100, 1000? Multiple others on this and Dr. Roods blog have proven why this particular graph is complete garbage so many times that its approaching the sublime.


Have not proved anything.....I am sticking with Dr. Roy Spencer.....A climate scientist....
GW was way way down on people's list of issues they care about this year and with Fox news now the most popular and most watched news channel; one must seriously ask if AGW has lost serious momentum this year alone. These measures that Obama has laid out and China has agreed to are not going to lead to financial collapse. Doing nothing to change what's quickly coming down the pipe will. And we can't count on honest transparency from China, so this plan alone is fantasy in a lot of ways. Truth is much more must be done, but the willingness just is not there. Real threat, as laid out by the Pentagon is wars and rumors of wars that will come in the years to come because of GW. Think the Syrian conflict and the historic drought that led hundreds of thousands to the big cities from their historical farmlands which lead to protests and eventually to the current very sad conflict. Think about the Indus river which provides over 90% of Pakistan's water which is being dammed up now by India to provide electricity. Pakistan has a first strike policy if India ever shuts down the Indus. Historical water sources in Africa and South America and so many other places are drying up. And they are doing so at an amazingly rapid rate. Mass migration, wars over resources, and many more uprisings over governments inaction to historic droughts are on the horizon. And this is near term problems. This will be a sliding scale thing, GW will incrementally get worse over the next 50-100 years, as conditions worsen and the world heats and water supplies go away; all this will worsen. World is great at lip service. While we have improved here in the last ten years, the US is still a very big problem. China is a mess environmentally and can't be trusted to be honest. GW is still a runaway train, and we're far off from real regulations to stop it. We will reap all of this soon enough.
Quoting landocanes:
Society needs to use a lot of energy or it will collapse
I'd word it like this: "Civilization as we know it is using an unsustainable amount of fossil fuels. This needs to change--soon--or the whole thing will collapse." Yeah, that's better...
Quoting landocanes:
The problem is in the delivery and tone of the messengers.
. I disagree. I think the problem is in the four million metric tons of CO2 we're cranking into the atmosphere every hour of every day.
Quoting landocanes:
in the next 10 years, the earth may experience generally cooler weather in the USA, which will could very well damage the climate change momentum.
I suppose anything is possible, as in there's always a non-zero chance. But cooler ten years from now? That's not going to happen, I'm afraid.
Quoting landocanes:
Right now, I'd say climate change is losing as many as its gaining mainly because the mnessengers are too over the top with their doom and gloom , and act as if it is impossible for anything else to happen. Well, that will prove to be their downfall imo, the attitude does not seem scientific.
It might not "seem scientific" to those who haven't looked at the overwhelming evidence. But the science is pretty clear on this: CO2 has caused enormous warming over the past several decades, and it's only going to get worse.
Quoting landocanes:
The global warming/ciimate change folks need to adjust their message, not just the name...
Not sure what you mean here. Please elaborate.
Quoting 359. SkulDouggery:


Its simple, China will reach "peak" by 2030. That means they will do nothing while our "supreme leader" will further damage our economy as well as our place in the global economy.
Certainly all the "GW scientist" on this site can see this, no?
I ask you all on the global warming side, is this agreement what you wanted to see? Is this going to work for the world?
I don't see it-


If we actually curb emissions in the country I will be estatic with joy. Not only will we be actually doing something productive, but the people that make a zillion dollars off of the oil industry will be just as well off as they currently are and the economy will not collapse, it may actually start to stabilize (or at least grow at a slower pace), which is where we need to get to if humans are not going to use every last resource on this planet.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Good morning, Keep. Nice here in SE AL. Already 59 degrees after an overnight low of 50. No southerly flow however, so that means we won't get any Gulf return flow before we see the next front. Rats! Supposed to get cold Friday and Saturday morning and we're supposed to get an inch of rain on Thursday. I'll believe that when I see it.


wow!!
368. MAstu
Quoting 360. ncgnto25:

Anybody remember that El Nino was named for the Christ Child because it appeared around Christmas? I have waited all summer for someone to remember that it would probably finally appear then. It is no surprise that it seems to be ramping up now.
I will continue to express irritation that the reverse phenomenon is called la nina which simply means 'the girl'
where are all of the feminists screaming that the girls are not the opposite of "the christ child"
I think el diablo is best
Quoting 365. tlawson48:



If we actually curb emissions in the country I will be estatic with joy. Not only will we be actually doing something productive, but the people that make a zillion dollars off of the oil industry will be just as well off as they currently are and the economy will not collapse, it may actually start to stabilize (or at least grow at a slower pace), which is where we need to get to if humans are not going to use every last resource on this planet.

Fair enough TLawson.
I'm not worried about the oil companies. But what about coal workers? They have already been adversely affected, and I am sure they are on the hit list for these new reductions?
Quoting hurricanes2018:


wow!!
Please snow, come just a little more south to north shore Lake Pochatrain.
Quoting 359. SkulDouggery:



Its simple, China will reach "peak" by 2030. That means they will do nothing while our "supreme leader" will further damage our economy as well as our place in the global economy.
Certainly all the "GW scientist" on this site can see this, no?
I ask you all on the global warming side, is this agreement what you wanted to see? Is this going to work for the world?
I don't see it-


China is a developing nation going through rapid industrialization. Does everyone just not know that? Your argument then is we should prevent a nation from catching up with the rest of the world? We should hard bargain the world's largest producer of goods and threaten the stability of the global economy?

I don't think people have any clue about the interconnectedness of the world.
Quoting 369. SkulDouggery:

Fair enough TLawson.
I'm not worried about the oil companies. But what about coal workers? They have already been adversely affected, and I am sure they are on the hit list for these new reductions?


Coal workers will get shoved out of a job regardless as the coal industries goal is for 100% automation of of mining operations. Safer yes, but also cheaper and no issues with OSHA or the unions to deal with.
Quoting 366. sar2401:

Good morning, Keep. Nice here in SE AL. Already 59 degrees after an overnight low of 50. No southerly flow however, so that means we won't get any Gulf return flow before we see the next front. Rats! Supposed to get cold Friday and Saturday morning and we're supposed to get an inch of rain on Thursday. I'll believe that when I see it.
we are getting on the cool side now we have reached our daytime high already and slowly drop during the day chills already in mid 20's this am in gusty winds at times flurries should start to show up by tomorrow everyday after that till sunday anyway nothing serious for snow not in city anyway n and w well that will be a different story
Rumford?

Quoting 358. tlawson48:



Growing up in Maine in the 80's, you could forecast the weather based on the intensity of the stench from the papermill 25 miles to the southeast. Heavy stench meant SE winds which meant rain.
Quoting 375. HaoleboySurfEC:
Rumford?



Jay. Although on calm mornings, because Rumford sits in a valley, all the steam from the mill would condense into fog, get stuck in the valley and the result would be a town shrouded in 100 foot visibilty that stank like rotting trash.
Quoting 376. SkulDouggery:


if you were a conservative Christian as you profess, then wouldn't global temperature be in the hands of a higher power?


God says to be stewards of the Earth.
379. MAstu
I'm not sold on GHGs being the main driver of global warming. I realize it's the consensus among scientists, but I think it has more to do with plate tectonics and thermohaline circulation.

The closing of the isthmus of Panama and the opening of the drake passage are two big ones.

That said, the planet is getting warmer, sea levels are rising, and GHGs almost definitely have something to do with it. I don't think we have much to lose by cutting GHG emissions and if I'm wrong, which is a distinct possibility, then we have a lot to gain.

few links on the subject:
the first came out a few weeks ago.
Link
Link
Link
Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Dense Fog Advisory
Statement as of 8:53 AM EST on November 12, 2014
...Dense fog advisory now in effect until 11 am EST this morning...

* locations...central and eastern Long Island and most of southern Connecticut.

* Hazards...dense fog.

* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing...through late morning.

* Impacts...reduced visibilities creating hazardous driving conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to one quarter mile or less. If driving...slow down...use your low beam headlights...and leave plenty of distance ahead of you in case a sudden stop is needed.


High's for Friday.
Quoting 378. Naga5000:



God says to be stewards of the Earth.

You got me there!
I realize that this is supposed to be tropical outlook, however, the impending polar vortex seems to be the storm to watch (and it did come from a Bering Sea Cane so it still fits the bill lol), is there any data on time lines for this thing to strike at the east coast and how far south it is coming? I know Wyoming got nailed (my brother lives out there) and have family from Ohio to Florida....ty
The cold pattern is likely to have staying power. The longer the cold sticks around, the better the chances the configuration of the weather pattern might eventually gel for a snow event. Some of the models suggest the period around November 20 is one to watch but their reliability in that time frame is suspect, to say the least.
Quoting 356. tlawson48:



How many times are you going to re-post this graph? 10, 100, 1000? Multiple others on this and Dr. Roods blog have proven why this particular graph is complete garbage so many times that its approaching the sublime.


It's worse than garbage, Spencer gets that apparent disagreement by aligning the model projections with an inordinately short(1979-1983) temperature interval. that is such an egregious error for a competent scientist that I can only consider it deliberate dishonesty. In short, the graph is a lie.
What does this mean?.
Link
Quoting 379. MAstu:

I'm not sold on GHGs being the main driver of global warming. I realize it's the consensus among scientists, but I think it has more to do with plate tectonics and thermohaline circulation.

The closing of the isthmus of Panama and the opening of the drake passage are two big ones.

That said, the planet is getting warmer, sea levels are rising, and GHGs almost definitely have something to do with it. I don't think we have much to lose by cutting GHG emissions and if I'm wrong, which is a distinct possibility, then we have a lot to gain.

few links on the subject:
the first came out a few weeks ago.
Link
Link
Link


Those affect heat transport. Where is the added energy coming from?
388. MAstu
Quoting 387. Naga5000:



Those affect heat transport. Where is the added energy coming from?
earth's interior
Of course GW would make it on a post that has absolutely no mention of it what so ever. As my father would say, i expect too much.
Hey guys so I see GEM/CMC is showing the last hoorah for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season and have been showing it for the past few runs now

CMC expects it to come from one of the Sfc trofs that's in the central Atlantic moves it into the SE Carib and starts to strengthens it to a sfc low but it doesn't actuually become a TS until it's in the NW Carib after being the the NW Carib for a bit it interacts with a front

Considering that CMC a has done decently well with some of the storms this season

I would not be surprise if this actually happen

None of the other models show this yet it may do later we do have some time to watch

Time frame of the supposed system is 132-240hrs as of the recent run and it is moving down looking at the past runs

In the mean time we got 0-120hrs of watching cold freezing winter weather in the US
Quoting 388. MAstu:

earth's interior


You would need to rewrite a lot of Geophysics textbooks. Link

The Earth receives 4,500 time the amount of energy on the surface from the sun than the interior. Silicates are poor conductors of heat.
Quoting 386. washingtonian115:

What does this mean?.
Link


Looks like VA will get slammed in a few weeks. Says 5 inches or so for my area.

EDIT: However, it doesn't appear to take geography into effect.
If we are discussing global warming....there are cycles to warming and cooling, we know this...however, there are aspects of the warming that we cant control unless you implement a mass limit on people reproducing and force humans to become vegetarians. The amount of methane that comes from the manure of cows alone is tremendous...more people, more cows to feed them and provide milk...it isn't just about being green (which I am as green as I can be by hanging out clothes on nice days to conserve energy, I put newspaper and cardboard in the garden for weed control instead of chemicals, I grow worms, etc), but the very people that are screaming about global warming are sitting in a heated/air conditioned house with internet and computers (which are NOT biodegradable) they use cars, lawn mowers, washing machines and dryers....yes, we are to be stewards of the Earth, but part of that is practice what you preach...you cant tell a child don't smoke while you buy a pack...you want to be a steward of the earth in THAT aspect, start by getting rid of the technology and living little house style, no indoor plumbing, no electricity to pollute the air, etc...being a Steward of the Earth really means to not abuse it...God knew technology would be here before Jesus came again...how else do you think the entire world would know one ruler....if we didn't have technology and it were like little house days...no one would follow one man...but the internet, the live TV, etc will make it so that the whole world can see that one person at the same time....all of this has to happen if you believe in Revelation...
Quoting 372. Naga5000:



China is a developing nation going through rapid industrialization. Does everyone just not know that? Your argument then is we should prevent a nation from catching up with the rest of the world? We should hard bargain the world's largest producer of goods and threaten the stability of the global economy?

I don't think people have any clue about the interconnectedness of the world.
I do...Everything is connected....Everything....Zero Point Field is a great book that explains this phenomenon.
397. MAstu
Quoting 393. Naga5000:



You would need to rewrite a lot of Geophysics textbooks. Link

The Earth receives 4,500 time the amount of energy on the surface from the sun than the interior. Silicates are poor conductors of heat.
That's only part of the story though. Do you agree that the closing of the isthmus of Panama caused major and rapid climate change?
Quoting 390. Storms306:

Of course GW would make it on a post that has absolutely no mention of it what so ever. As my father would say, i expect too much.


I came on to ask about the polar vortex and how far south it looks like it will go and a time line... I cant get an answer about the vortex so I put my 2 cents in on GW
Quoting tiggeriffic:
I realize that this is supposed to be tropical outlook, however, the impending polar vortex seems to be the storm to watch (and it did come from a Bering Sea Cane so it still fits the bill lol), is there any data on time lines for this thing to strike at the east coast and how far south it is coming? I know Wyoming got nailed (my brother lives out there) and have family from Ohio to Florida....ty
I don't know why people think this is just a tropical blog. If it was, it would be pretty empty in here six months out of the year. It's a weather blog, and the only rules about hurricanes is when one is active and affecting populated areas, we're supposed to not post about other things. Given that nothing is active or affecting any populations, it's fair game. That's why we talk about winter weather now.

The dome of cold high pressure that caused the cold temperatures in Wyoming will sink south over the next three days, but the air will be modifying as it does, so only the Plains is going to see really cold temperatures. I have relatives in Cleveland, so I keep an eye on the weather there. It's going to be cold but nothing Clevelanders don't deal with every winter. Snow flurries with highs in the mid-30's and lows in the high 20's. Florida will be affected by some near freezing overnight lows by Friday morning but that's only inland, and south Florida will barely be affected at all. The NWS puts out good summaries of the current and projected weather over the next five days, with maps to give you a visual picture. That's one of the things I use to get an idea of what's down the pike.

Quoting 398. tiggeriffic:



I came on to ask about the polar vortex and how far south it looks like it will go and a time line... I cant get an answer about the vortex so I put my 2 cents in on GW
What post was your originak question?
The cold snap coming out of Northern Canada is the first showve of cold air. It will wash out to some extent by the time it reaches the East Coast. Temps will be below normal but not to the level that has been seen out west. The next push comes Monday and the core of this looks to be centered closer to the East Coast. It will definitely get even colder next week in the east, but most likely not record setting.
good morning.....woke up to a crisp 40 degrees this a.m............the next county to our east was under a freeze warning....now tomorrow we should see 33 degrees and there's a slight chance it could be lower.....guess it's time to turn on the heater
Quoting 369. SkulDouggery:


Fair enough TLawson.
I'm not worried about the oil companies. But what about coal workers? They have already been adversely affected, and I am sure they are on the hit list for these new reductions?



It is really about change and adaptation. As industries change, jobs change. Assembly lines took over hand craftsmanship. Assembly line workers are now automated robots instead of human ones. Coal workers can/should be educated into new ways of generating income. Adapt or die, such is life.
Quoting MAstu:
That's only part of the story though. Do you agree that the closing of the isthmus of Panama caused major and rapid climate change?
If you want to call somewhere between 600,000 and 1.2 million years duration rapid, then it did. It was certainly major since it appears to be one of the things that caused glaciation in the Arctic. But what does that have to do with the issue of global warming cause by humans burning all sorts of greenhouse gasses, including CO2?
Quoting 398. tiggeriffic:



I came on to ask about the polar vortex and how far south it looks like it will go and a time line... I cant get an answer about the vortex so I put my 2 cents in on GW
greetings Tig...Here,s a lil info that pertains to the mighty vort....or I should say " vorts " because there are two..

Quoting 397. MAstu:

That's only part of the story though. Do you agree that the closing of the isthmus of Panama caused major and rapid climate change?


I assume it did, but again, that is another heat transport issue, not added energy. Where is the added energy coming from? We have effectively measured incoming energy, outgoing energy, energy at the surface, energy from the interior, there is an imbalance and it is at the same wavelengths of CO2 and other ghg's.

There is no doubt huge shifts in ocean circulation and land masses change the transport and distribution of heat on a global scale, but those things do not create energy
Quoting 388. MAstu:

earth's interior
Quoting 388. MAstu:

earth's interior


a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/heatflow.htm l" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow" >I think not.



Figure 4: The volumes of the cubes are proportional to the magnitude of the energy flow from various sources. The solar irradiance is the incident energy, averaged over the area of the Earth (divided by four); irradiance varies over 11 year cycles and, at the top of recent cycles, can reach 341.7 Wm-2. The increase in anthropogenic forcing since pre-industrial times comes from the IPCC. The heat flow from the Earth%u2019s interior is the 47 TW figure (see Figure 3 caption) averaged over the surface area. The energy flow from the human energy production is based on Flanner (2009). Tidal energy is the total energy input from the gravitational interaction between the Earth, Moon and Sun; a small part of this energy is included in the energy flow from the Earth%u2019s interior (see below for further discussion).

The net increase in the amount of planetary energy flow arising from human activities (mainly the greenhouse effects from emissions of carbon dioxide) since the industrial revolution is more than twenty times the steady-state heat flow from the Earth%u2019s interior. Any small changes in the Earth%u2019s heat flow over that time period%u2014and there is no evidence for any change at all%u2014would plainly be inconsequential.
409. MAstu
Quoting 405. sar2401:

If you want to call somewhere between 600,000 and 1.2 million years duration rapid, then it did. It was certainly major since it appears to be one of the things that caused glaciation in the Arctic. But what does that have to do with the issue of global warming cause by humans burning all sorts of greenhouse gasses, including CO2?
you're right, I was thinking of the younger dryas which had nothing to do with plate tectonics. In any case, the closing caused climate change. To answer your question, I am speaking of the relative contribution of plate tectonics and CO2. CO2 causes warming, but I assert that it causes less warming than is currently being claimed.
Quoting 397. MAstu:

That's only part of the story though. Do you agree that the closing of the isthmus of Panama caused major and rapid climate change?


Rapid, over millions of years, not rapid compared to 150 years of CO2 emmisions caused by industrialization.
411. MAstu
Quoting 408. JohnLonergan:



a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/heatflow.htm l" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow" >I think not.



Figure 4: The volumes of the cubes are proportional to the magnitude of the energy flow from various sources. The solar irradiance is the incident energy, averaged over the area of the Earth (divided by four); irradiance varies over 11 year cycles and, at the top of recent cycles, can reach 341.7 Wm-2. The increase in anthropogenic forcing since pre-industrial times comes from the IPCC. The heat flow from the Earth%u2019s interior is the 47 TW figure (see Figure 3 caption) averaged over the surface area. The energy flow from the human energy production is based on Flanner (2009). Tidal energy is the total energy input from the gravitational interaction between the Earth, Moon and Sun; a small part of this energy is included in the energy flow from the Earth%u2019s interior (see below for further discussion).

The net increase in the amount of planetary energy flow arising from human activities (mainly the greenhouse effects from emissions of carbon dioxide) since the industrial revolution is more than twenty times the steady-state heat flow from the Earth%u2019s interior. Any small changes in the Earth%u2019s heat flow over that time period%u2014and there is no evidence for any change at all%u2014would plainly be inconsequential.
you're missing the point. Plate tectonics are driven by heat from the earth's interior and plate tectonics contribute to warming/cooling of the earth by changing thermohaline circulation. Thermohaline circulation is credited with driving glaciation/deglaciation which produces positive feedback loops because glaciers reflect the energy coming from the sun.
412. yoboi
Quoting 407. Naga5000:



I assume it did, but again, that is another heat transport issue, not added energy. Where is the added energy coming from? We have effectively measured incoming energy, outgoing energy, energy at the surface, energy from the interior, there is an imbalance and it is at the same wavelengths of CO2 and other ghg's.

There is no doubt huge shifts in ocean circulation and land masses change the transport and distribution of heat on a global scale, but those things do not create energy




Do you agree Greenland ice cores is acceptable science?????
413. MAstu
Quoting 410. JohnLonergan:



Rapid, over millions of years, not rapid compared to 150 years of CO2 emmisions caused by industrialization.

I was wrong on the rapid part.
Quoting tiggeriffic:
If we are discussing global warming....there are cycles to warming and cooling, we know this...however, there are aspects of the warming that we cant control unless you implement a mass limit on people reproducing and force humans to become vegetarians. The amount of methane that comes from the manure of cows alone is tremendous...more people, more cows to feed them and provide milk...it isn't just about being green (which I am as green as I can be by hanging out clothes on nice days to conserve energy, I put newspaper and cardboard in the garden for weed control instead of chemicals, I grow worms, etc), but the very people that are screaming about global warming are sitting in a heated/air conditioned house with internet and computers (which are NOT biodegradable) they use cars, lawn mowers, washing machines and dryers....yes, we are to be stewards of the Earth, but part of that is practice what you preach...you cant tell a child don't smoke while you buy a pack...you want to be a steward of the earth in THAT aspect, start by getting rid of the technology and living little house style, no indoor plumbing, no electricity to pollute the air, etc...being a Steward of the Earth really means to not abuse it...God knew technology would be here before Jesus came again...how else do you think the entire world would know one ruler....if we didn't have technology and it were like little house days...no one would follow one man...but the internet, the live TV, etc will make it so that the whole world can see that one person at the same time....all of this has to happen if you believe in Revelation...
I'm not at all sure how ancient superstitions--even widely believed ones--fit into a discussion on climate science, so let's just ignore that if, for no other reason, the sake of brevity. However, I would like to comment on the silly idea that those who support the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change are somehow hypocritical or less credible because they still live in an age of technical conveniences. Is it the opinion of some that we supporters of the science should live like the Amish in order to convince others that the planet is warming? You know, I have a friend who's a doctor who both smokes and rides a motorcycle while not wearing a helmet; Does that mean smoking isn't dangerous? Does that mean accident-caused brain injuries aren't real? I think it's time to pack up such lame and illogical "arguments" and move on to more grownup discussions, don't you?
415. MAstu
Quoting 407. Naga5000:



I assume it did, but again, that is another heat transport issue, not added energy. Where is the added energy coming from? We have effectively measured incoming energy, outgoing energy, energy at the surface, energy from the interior, there is an imbalance and it is at the same wavelengths of CO2 and other ghg's.

There is no doubt huge shifts in ocean circulation and land masses change the transport and distribution of heat on a global scale, but those things do not create energy
because glaciers reflect heat... that's the very point behind all of the fear of a positive feedback from ice caps melting
Quoting 395. tiggeriffic:

If we are discussing global warming....there are cycles to warming and cooling, we know this...however, there are aspects of the warming that we cant control unless you implement a mass limit on people reproducing and force humans to become vegetarians. The amount of methane that comes from the manure of cows alone is tremendous...more people, more cows to feed them and provide milk...it isn't just about being green (which I am as green as I can be by hanging out clothes on nice days to conserve energy, I put newspaper and cardboard in the garden for weed control instead of chemicals, I grow worms, etc), but the very people that are screaming about global warming are sitting in a heated/air conditioned house with internet and computers (which are NOT biodegradable) they use cars, lawn mowers, washing machines and dryers....yes, we are to be stewards of the Earth, but part of that is practice what you preach...you cant tell a child don't smoke while you buy a pack...you want to be a steward of the earth in THAT aspect, start by getting rid of the technology and living little house style, no indoor plumbing, no electricity to pollute the air, etc...being a Steward of the Earth really means to not abuse it...God knew technology would be here before Jesus came again...how else do you think the entire world would know one ruler....if we didn't have technology and it were like little house days...no one would follow one man...but the internet, the live TV, etc will make it so that the whole world can see that one person at the same time....all of this has to happen if you believe in Revelation...
If Jesus returns, he will not need T.V. or the internet to inform the human race that he has arrived. If God used one trillionth of one percent of his power here, the entire galaxy would know it..:)
countdown to comet landing...like omg :)
Quoting 412. yoboi:




Do you agree Greenland ice cores is acceptable science?????


What exactly are you asking? That the ice cores provide too little data, too much data, too few of them, too many of them, that they were imporperly analyzed, that the whole thing is fabricated and the cores are really made of library paste and sawdust? Please be more specific.
419. yoboi
Quoting 414. Neapolitan:

I'm not at all sure how ancient superstitions--even widely believed ones--fit into a discussion on climate science, so let's just ignore that if, for no other reason, the sake of brevity. However, I would like to comment on the silly idea that those who support the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change are somehow hypocritical or less credible because they still live in an age of technical conveniences. Is it the opinion of some that we supporters of the science should live like the Amish in order to convince others that the planet is warming? You know, I have a friend who's a doctor who both smokes and rides a motorcycle while not wearing a helmet; Does that mean smoking isn't dangerous? Does that mean accident-caused brain injuries aren't real? I think it's time to pack up such lame and illogical "arguments" and move on to more grownup discussions, don't you?


How is smoking and not wearing a helmet related to climate change?????
M 4.1 - 68km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon
2014-11-12 06:42:55 UTC-08:00
Location
41.883°N 119.652°W
Depth
1.3km

160+ and counting
Quoting 419. yoboi:



How is smoking and not wearing a helmet related to climate change?????


Seeing the ball go over the receiver's Head maybe?
Quoting MAstu:
you're right, I was thinking of the younger dryas which had nothing to do with plate tectonics. In any case, the closing caused climate change. To answer your question, I am speaking of the relative contribution of plate tectonics and CO2. CO2 causes warming, but I assert that it causes less warming than is currently being claimed.
OK, if you believe it's something other than, or something in addition to CO2 that is the major cause of the warming we've seen since the industrial revolution, what do you propose as the culprit? Just based on timeline, the warming started when we began to burn large amounts of coal for industrial purposes. In all of man's previous history, we burned things to keep warm or cook food, so it wasn't much in the whole scheme of things. In addition to coal, we discovered oil, so we burned both, and the amount of warming continued to increase. We went through two huge world wars, discovered flight, created a world with less people starving than ever before in history and more people prosperous than ever before in history. India went from a country of chronic famine 70 years ago to a country about put to men in space. These are all incredible feats, but they didn't come without cost. Simply by seeing the timeline of global warming compared to what our world has become, CO2 seems like the only logical cause.
Quoting 419. yoboi:


How is smoking and not wearing a helmet related to climate change?????


Its called an analogy.
Quoting 421. Patrap:



Seeing the ball go over the receiver's Head maybe?

Pretty sure the QB was sacked furiously before the ball ever got to that one...
Quoting 415. MAstu:

because glaciers reflect heat... that's the very point behind all of the fear of a positive feedback from ice caps melting


Okay, so plate tectonics can* affect the energy imbalance by increasing albedo from increased glaciation, is there any evidence to say this happens on short (150 year) time scales or that large changes in ocean circulation or plate tectonics are driving this current warming? How does this interplay with CO2 other GHG's and Milankovitch Cycles?

Therein lies the issue, the paleoclimate record is a good comparison for how the planet functions normally and over long periods of time, but this current event is well documented, measured, and recorded. We know what forcings are at work and have measured them, the empirical evidence is there. At this point, there would need to be something that behaves exactly like CO2, but isn't CO2.
First winter storm of northern Wisconsin follow up:

I had 14.9 inches along the Lake Superior shoreline. The highest reported total so far is 26 inches in the high terrain of Iron County. The picture of WPR (below) is 30 miles south of me. The high terrain snow belt is expected to receive another 8 to 12 inches by tonight, and maybe a little more tomorrow before the wind turns and the lake-effect snow ends.


Wisconsin Public Radio news: Winter Storm Leads To Power Outages, Dangerous Travel Conditions




NWS Duluth's preliminary snowfall map:
Quoting 419. yoboi:
How is smoking and not wearing a helmet related to climate change?????


LOL, It's time to quit while you are.................. BEHIND!
NWS Minneapolis posted a region-wide map of the snowfall across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan in their storm summary.

Quoting MAstu:
because glaciers reflect heat... that's the very point behind all of the fear of a positive feedback from ice caps melting
But the amount of heat reflected and absorbed by glaciers alone is not enough to explain why the earth's temperature is climbing so rapidly. Melting of the glaciers, which is caused by something, is an issue because it raises sea levels when it melts from the Antarctic and threatens the fresh water supply of a large number of the world's populations. They are really two separate issues.
LOL, It's time to quit while you are.................. BEHIND!


i couldn't have said that one better
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 47n91w:
NWS Minneapolis posted a region-wide map of the snowfall across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan in their storm summary.

You can sure see the snow streak effect cause by the Lake. That's one of the things I used to hate about Cleveland. We lived on the west side and my grandmother lived on the far east side. Thanksgiving and Christmas would come and we were supposed to go to grandma's house, always a highlight of the year when I was young. We'd have either no snow or maybe an inch but couldn't make it to grandma's because she had 16 inches. Trying to understand why my holidays with grandma always got screwed up was one of the things that got me interested in weather. :-)

EDIT: Never fails...
433. MAstu
Quoting 422. sar2401:

OK, if you believe it's something other than, or something in addition to CO2 that is the major cause of the warming we've seen since the industrial revolution, what do you propose as the culprit? Just based on timeline, the warming started when we began to burn large amounts of coal for industrial purposes. In all of man's previous history, we burned things to keep warm or cook food, so it wasn't much in the whole scheme of things. In addition to coal, we discovered oil, so we burned both, and the amount of warming continued to increase. We went through two huge world wars, discovered flight, created a world with less people starving than ever before in history and more people prosperous than ever before in history. India went from a country of chronic famine 70 years ago to a country about put to men in space. These are all incredible feats, but they didn't come without cost. Simply by seeing the timeline of global warming compared to what our world has become, CO2 seems like the only logical cause.

In addition to, not other than.

The culprit is thermohaline circulation. Explain why warming is occurring at different rates in different areas of the world. Explain why warming goes up and down and not straight up. Explain why we can't predict the weather 30 years from now. Explain why we couldn't predict today's temperatures 30 years ago.
@NWSMarquette · 7 minutes ago
@JimCantore Just heard from our observer 7NNE of Ishpeming and they are up to a Storm Total of 42.5"
435. jpsb
Quoting 420. WaterWitch11:

M 4.1 - 68km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon
2014-11-12 06:42:55 UTC-08:00
Location
41.883°N 119.652°W
Depth
1.3km

160+ and counting


That is very shallow. Any volcanoes nearby?
Quoting 414. Neapolitan:

I'm not at all sure how ancient superstitions--even widely believed ones--fit into a discussion on climate science, so let's just ignore that if, for no other reason, the sake of brevity. However, I would like to comment on the silly idea that those who support the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change are somehow hypocritical or less credible because they still live in an age of technical conveniences. Is it the opinion of some that we supporters of the science should live like the Amish in order to convince others that the planet is warming? You know, I have a friend who's a doctor who both smokes and rides a motorcycle while not wearing a helmet; Does that mean smoking isn't dangerous? Does that mean accident-caused brain injuries aren't real? I think it's time to pack up such lame and illogical "arguments" and move on to more grownup discussions, don't you?
Good morning Nea..Thats like going to your gardeners house only to see everything in his yard is dying or dead..Probably not a big deal , but at the same time something you might have considered had you known that before hiring them. Not wearing a helmet while riding a motor cycle is dangerous..I have been in a couple accidents, helmet saved my life and many others. I believe Tigger was trying to say that there are people out there making news about the dangers of man made pollution and its effect on the atmosphere, while at the same time they are directly responsible for some of the pollutants causing it. Tigger should know the many of us are doing our part to keep recycling and air pollution to a minimum. The Amish thing is amusing to me, they really do produce little if any damage to the environment. We do recycle here, but decided we will keep the heat and van running , and we also will keep our phones.
Quoting 434. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@NWSMarquette · 7 minutes ago
@JimCantore Just heard from our observer 7NNE of Ishpeming and they are up to a Storm Total of 42.5"


One of my friends is up in marquette chasing the lake effect snow.

Link
Quoting 421. Patrap:



Seeing the ball go over the receiver's Head maybe?

naw, it was an intentional grounding.


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While the progression towards El Niño over the past week may
seem to be compelling evidence that El Niño is imminent, we've been fooled
before.  [Gopinathan
Comment :  by CPC and IRI.
They have  banned the “ENSO” since 2009
event. ]

One key reason she gives: "We’re still not seeing
much of an atmospheric response to the surface warming, so there is
now concern that if El Niño conditions are achieved, they won’t persist for the
five overlapping seasons
.  [Gopinathan Comment :  (i.e 5* 3
 = 15 months )]  required for this to be
called an El Niño event."  
[Gopinathan Comment :   that according to the “Economical”
definition of ENSO. ]


p.s. my comments embedded in red above...

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