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Early-Season Winter Storm Blasts North Central U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:52 PM GMT on November 10, 2014

The winter of 2014 - 2015 is off to an early start over the Northern Plains, where a December-like blast of Arctic air is bringing heavy snows and wintery cold. The early season cold air outbreak is due, in part, to the influence of Super Typhoon Nuri, which caused a ripple effect on the jet stream when the remains of the typhoon "bombed" over the weekend into one of the most intense extratropical storms ever observed in the waters west of Alaska. This superstorm forced the jet stream to bulge far to the north over western North America, bringing a strong ridge of high pressure responsible for numerous daily record high temperatures in California, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Washington over the weekend. A compensating southwards dip in the jet is now materializing over the North Central U.S., where an unusually powerful trough of low pressure is pushing southeastwards. This trough will give most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. high temperatures 10 - 20°F below average by late in the week.


Figure 1. Jack the snowman takes shape after an early season snowfall on Sunday November 9, 2014, in Pellston, Michigan. Image credit: wunderphotographer jpboris.

The wintery fun is in full swing this Monday morning in Central Minnesota, where a Winter Storm Warning is posted, with snow amounts of 6 - 16" expected. According to NOAA's latest storm summary, the storm had a 990 mb surface low pressure in Nebraska at 9 am EST Monday, and brought 3 - 5" of snow across portions of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, with heavier snows of up to 14" recorded in Montana. Strong winds pouring south out of Canada brought numerous wind gusts in excess of 50 mph to Montana, Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with the top gust an impressive 68 mph at Driggs, Idaho. The heaviest snows from the storm will likely fall in North Central Wisconsin, with 8 - 16", and in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, where lake effect enhancement by Lake Superior will bring widespread snows over 12", with some areas seeing up to 24".

Jeff Masters
This is why they call this Fall, it just keeps Falling.
This is why they call this Fall, it just keeps Falling.
But I Don't Eat Berries!
But I Don't Eat Berries!
Blanket of white
Blanket of white

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Thanks Doc, wish we could share some of this wintery fun in S. Florida!
nice update


Brrrr

winter its coming some places already here
This trough will give most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. high temperatures 10 - 20°F below average by late in the


yep....we're not even going to make it to 60 degrees on thursday
Now that winter is here we can all get worked up and bent out of shape about winter storms instead of hurricanes! Yea!
Webber,

You provided a 240 hour Euro run..I stated in my case as I live in the SE that I would get rain..I was responding to the run that you posted and I understand the models uncertanity in guidance that far out..

It was only my opinion to that particular run..

I can assure you there is no need to frown upon my post..

So maybe you can relax and turn your frown into a smile....its only an observation on my end..I'm not trying to win any awards here..
Quoting 4. Webberweather53:



The reason why such posts are frowned upon is because so many decide to take the models @ face value instead of using them merely as a tool (i.e. guidance) to weigh against experience, conditions at hand, etc. There's no reasoning to get worked up over the specifics in the pattern at this stage in the game, we need to let the next few storm systems play out & lay down their snowpack as well as monitor the progression of near equatorial -VP anomalies, as a CCKW will be reaching the pivotal 30-60E longitude as we get close to the 20th of November. I also should mention in the case you actually did take this model run literally, it's only accounting for "snow on the ground", nevermind any ice that would typically lay further to the southeast could accompany an overrunning set-up like this. Relax...
as everything progresses along we shall see the pattern to get us to first day of winter emerge
The snow storm is called Astro. It's ok to call him by name.
Quoting 11. StormTrackerScott:



Now that's bull I never took it literally all I did was just post the model showing snow across a good chunk of Texas.


I wasn't talking about this case in particular but in general...
Quoting 7. StormTrackerScott:
Apparently I took alot of heat this morning for posting the 0Z Euro showing snow across a good chunk of Texas.



This happened last year in March? I think. Never mind the fact that its a liquid equivelant map, assumes a 10:1 ratio, is from the 0Z run of one forecast model and is for all the accumulated snow over a 10 day period.
CPC has Nino 3.4 at 0.8C. Impressive reading this morning meaning El-Nino could be declared in December.
Quoting 9. ricderr:

This trough will give most of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. high temperatures 10 - 20°F below average by late in the


yep....we're not even going to make it to 60 degrees on thursday
You are exactly right. Scott.


Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
so I guess if ya don't end it I will
sat snow forecast alert

from top left to bottom right

5cm 15cm 30cm alert level yellow lowest red highest

Quoting tlawson48:
Now that winter is here we can all get worked up and bent out of shape about winter storms instead of hurricanes! Yea!
You're right about that. :) ;)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Here comes Astro. :)
sunday snow forecast alert

from top left to bottom right

5cm 15cm 30cm alert level yellow lowest red highest



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sunday snow forecast alert

from top left to bottom right

5cm 15cm 30cm alert level yellow lowest red highest



A little snow for me. Thank you lord Jesus. :)
Quoting 26. Andrebrooks:


Here comes Astro. :)
skirted along to our north we are in the warm sector as system moves ne ward over and beyond central grt lakes region areas north of track are at greatest risk of winter weather conditions
Whenever Chicken Little posts,


snorted my coffee on that one
Quoting 22. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

so I guess if ya don't end it I will



?????
I sure hope you are removing the other posts that aren't on topic Keep as to not show any bias to certain bloggers..





Quoting 7. StormTrackerScott:

Apparently I took alot of heat this morning for posting the 0Z Euro showing snow across a good chunk of Texas. Euro & GFS both have 2 different solutions for early next week regarding southern snow potential. My guess is the Euro might pan out again but well see.


Not everybody jumps on you for doing what you do, Scott. They are more likely to give you heat when you post a long range model solution showing a major hurricane threatening a heavily populated region, such as Florida, for example. That is only natural because people feel personally threatened by that. Most of those who are not bothered by what you choose to post here will not compliment you for it though, so it may seem like you are being attacked sometimes.

As for me, I enjoy (most of) your relatively-mildly-hyperbole-oriented comments in your posts but especially enjoy the graphics that you usually include. Some of this stuff is from sites where I would have to pay to access it myself so I appreciate it when you post it instead and I
don't have to pay to get it. I thank you for that.

Look at it this way.. What difference does it really make what others say anyway? It will not affect you much if any at all. Just keep doing what you do as StormTrackerScott and let the chips (and the gripes, the snipes, etc.) fall by the wayside.
Quoting Webberweather53:


The reason why such posts are frowned upon is because so many decide to take the models @ face value instead of using them merely as a tool (i.e. guidance) to weigh against experience, conditions at hand, etc. There's no reasoning to get worked up over the specifics in the pattern at this stage in the game, we need to let the next few storm systems play out & lay down their snowpack as well as monitor the progression of near equatorial -VP anomalies, as a CCKW will be reaching the pivotal 30-60E longitude as we get close to the 20th of November. I also should mention in the case you actually did take this model run literally, it's only accounting for "snow on the ground", nevermind any ice that would typically lay further to the southeast could accompany an overrunning set-up like this. Relax...


Yep, every weather system this season it seems will be a "polar vortex monster storm with millions in the path that is unprecedented and struck without warning".

Add to the mix people posting medium range (7 to 15 day) computer model voodoo snow forecasts, and the confusion gets out of hand. On almost any cold season day, I can find at least one global model that paints a North Alabama snow in the 7 to 15 day time frame. And, of course, there is no skill in a specific forecast at that range, and they hardly ever happen. Just like the medium range voodoo model hurricane forecasts in summer that are bogus.

When it comes to snow hysteria, and I have written before part of this is OUR problem after the botched January 28 snow forecast earlier this year. I don't blame people for not trusting us; they will run to the most terrifying forecast that can find and believe it since we have to rebuild our credibility. And, they share that outrageous forecast like wildfire on Facebook.

We call this "clickbait" - people are looking for likes and clicks, and a wild good snow/winter storm forecast is a way to get them, whether the forecast is true or not. Truth doesn't matter in this game - it is all about the battle for your eyeballs.

I ask that you think before you share any weather content on social media.

WHAT YOU GET FROM US: When I say "us" I mean the meteorologists at ABC 33/40 and The Weather Factory. You will get a forecast product that is accurate as the science allows. I have been going the Weather Xtreme video for over 12 years now, a twice daily video that clearly explains WHY we are forecasting what you read and see. Open for the world to see, and easy to use. We have spent many long hours writing these blog discussions and forecasts we will be wrong from time to time, but we stand by our verification history, which is very strong.

WHAT YOU WON'T GET FROM US: Forecasts of "polar vortex monster storms with millions in the path that is unprecedented and struck without warning". Wild medium range voodoo snow forecasts. Clickbait.

Maybe I am fighting a losing battle, and the clickbait guys will win. But, as long as I am here expect the same content, level of service, and professional weather products without the hype. Thanks for being part of our "blog family". I sincerely appreciate it, and your interest in real weather products that, while never perfect, is done with much care and sound science.

Link
Link
St. Augustine N wind 27-30 knts. and increasing all morning. Raw rainy day in e-central and north-east Fl.

I think many were calling for the rain to clear by Sunday pm. Looks like they were off....
Yep, every weather system this season it seems will be a %u201Cpolar vortex monster storm with millions in the path that is unprecedented and struck without warning%u201D.


they said it well
You know posting of the maps and charts and model runs ...

Sometimes I don't recognize the map ...sometimes it too small for me to read the little lettering that is on top of it.
It would be nice if when things are posted that there would be a little blurb of what it is?

Heck, half the time I'm trying to figure out what got posted that is causing the bickering.
with the weekly 3.4 enso value at 0.8c above normal....the 12 week average is now at 0.5c above normal.....yes folks......the baby is ready for delivery....just waiting on doc noaa to deliver
Quoting 37. Abacosurf:

Link
St. Augustine N wind 27-30 knts. and increasing all morning. Raw rainy day in e-central and north-east Fl.

I think many were calling for the rain to clear by Sunday pm. Looks like they were off....


Beautiful day here on the West Coast. Not a good day on the NE Coast.
Why aren't the mods removing posts that contain proprietary ECMWF graphics?
Quoting txjac:
You know posting of the maps and charts and model runs ...

Sometimes I don't recognize the map ...sometimes it too small for me to read the little lettering that is on top of it.
It would be nice if when things are posted that there would be a little blurb of what it is?

Heck, half the time I'm trying to figure out what got posted that is causing the bickering.
If you right click and choose "Open in new tab", the map will usually be big enough to read. I agree with your point about posting maps or satellite pictures with no caption, or just something like "Hmmm..." or "WOW!!!". Many people have no idea what the maps or pictures are supposed to mean to the regular humans here. A few lines about why the item was posted would help everyone.
Quoting 36. sar2401:




We call this "clickbait" - people are looking for likes and clicks, and a wild good snow/winter storm forecast is a way to get them, whether the forecast is true or not. Truth doesn't matter in this game - it is all about the battle for your eyeballs.

Link


Clickbait, I like that.

Perhaps my insistence on reading the details of images that I see posted here and then even go and do some outside research, is the reason I view EVERYTHING I see with extreme skepticism. This probably means I am a sales persons worst nightmare.

Quoting 42. luvtogolf:



Beautiful day here on the West Coast. Not a good day on the NE Coast.


Same here in extreme S Fl. clear, with temps in low 70s and diminishing humidity! Let's hope it lasts
Quoting 44. sar2401:
If you right click and choose "Open in new tab", the map will usually be big enough to read. I agree with your point about posting maps or satellite pictures with no caption, or just something like "Hmmm..." or "WOW!!!". Many people have no idea what the maps or pictures are supposed to mean to the regular humans here. A few lines about why the item was posted would help everyone.


People still read? I thought the goal of the internet was to reduce it to pretty pictures. :)
Quoting 14. LovetoaMuse:

The snow storm is called Astro. It's ok to call him by name.



You called?
Thank You Dr:

This superstorm forced the jet stream to bulge far to the north over western North America, bringing a strong ridge of high pressure responsible for numerous daily record high temperatures in California, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Washington over the weekend. A compensating southwards dip in the jet is now materializing over the North Central U.S., where an unusually powerful trough of low pressure is pushing southeastwards.

Totally amazing ripple effect downstream:




Between 0630 and 0800 today in Cheyenne Wyoming, the temperature dropped from 56 to 24. We are currently enjoying a balmy 17 degrees with snowfall. I guess winter has arrived.
Quoting Astrometeor:


You called?
LOL. I wondered where you were, Astro, since everyone has been talking about your namesake the past several days. Who would have thought they'd come up with "Astro" as a winter storm name. Maybe next year they'll use "Meteor". :-)
are there instances where a pattern that has shown itself consistently through the model runs becomes worthy of an event happening? Not necessarily as a predictor of strength and location, but just a more generic there is evidence of this type of event happening?
Quoting 52. sar2401:

LOL. I wondered where you were, Astro, since everyone has been talking about your namesake the past several days. Who would have thought they'd come up with "Astro" as a winter storm name. Maybe next year they'll use "Meteor". :-)


Busy with college. I didn't think so much time would be sapped...but yes. I should become incredibly active once winter break arrives, but we shall see. I'll have a month and a half of vacation!

I didn't even know that TWC had named this storm...I would've thought Astro would've gone to that Southern Blizzard...

I've been getting better with checking the blogs the last few days, though. :) Stopped by Rood's blog yesterday.
Quoting 53. redux:
are there instances where a pattern that has shown itself consistently through the model runs becomes worthy of an event happening? Not necessarily as a predictor of strength and location, but just a more generic there is evidence of this type of event happening?


If you can figure that out you'll retire astoundingly rich.
This makes me cold, location, location, location, no worries here.......lol
Here is a better view of the jet stream bulge over North America:

A Birthday Message to US Marines Worldwide from the Commandant of the Marine Corps


Happy 239th Birthday

Semper Fi to those gone to rest, those serving, and those among us daily.
We call this "clickbait" - people are looking for likes and clicks, and a wild good snow/winter storm forecast is a way to get them, whether the forecast is true or not. Truth doesn't matter in this game - it is all about the battle for your eyeballs.
Like this sar??


News AOL
Bitter weather likely to hammer US this week.


Bitter and hammer in one sentence!! YIKES!!
Quoting tlawson48:


Clickbait, I like that.

Perhaps my insistence on reading the details of images that I see posted here and then even go and do some outside research, is the reason I view EVERYTHING I see with extreme skepticism. This probably means I am a sales persons worst nightmare.

To no one's surprise, I also have a healthy skepticism about graphics and forecasts posted here. A lot of them are very helpful, but some don't show what the posters says they show, some aren't for the right period, and some show total lack of understanding about how to interpret a model. Without looking at the details and the source, I have no idea what to believe. This is the result of transitioning from the time when what we saw only came from experts and had some credibility to now, where anyone with a computer and knowledge about how to copy and paste graphics can become a weather forecaster,
The media folks always try to find a picture of someone who is excessively bundled up and walking into the wind. Probably someone from Florida or Hawaii who is on work/vacation/whatever and would think that 50F is a brutal, icy day.
My only comment on this morning's hysterical forecast of snow across the South was that when speaking of areas as large as Texas, anyone wishing to be taken seriously should strive to be accurate. Again, Texas is huge: the northern tip of Texas is closer to Fargo, ND, than it is to the southern tip of the state; the western tip of the state is closer to Santa Barbara, CA, than it is to the eastern edge; and the eastern edge is closer to Charlotte, NC, than it is to the western edge. And did you know Corpus Christi is closer to Havana, Cuba, than it is to Denver?

So please be precise. It'll help everyone here. Thanks! ;-)
good blog!!! let it snow


more snow!!
Starting to wonder if the current lower gas prices also extend to natural gas (does anybody on here know?); our friends in the North-NE might be looking at some harsh winter conditions and those with fixed incomes might need a break with their upcoming Winter heating bills. Or, you need to start on building up on your firewood collection now....
I wonder how the general public today would cope with the weather of the Little Ice Age back in the 1600's? We know how the people of the time coped: they starved and ate each other. But how would today's population cope if thrust into that scenario? For all of our improvements, it seems as if each winter we turn into progressively bigger wimps.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


more snow!!

MOAR! MOAR! MOAR!!! MOAR!MOOOAR!!!!
Quoting 17. StormTrackerScott:

CPC has Nino 3.4 at 0.8C. Impressive reading this morning meaning El-Nino could be declared in December.
What's the average for and El nino to be declared?
What's the average for and El nino to be declared?


0.5C above average for three consecutive months...now the last 12 weeks has been at 0.5C...,,,however.....i'm thinking noaa looks at calendar months
Quoting 58. Patrap:

A Birthday Message to US Marines Worldwide from the Commandant of the Marine Corps


Happy 239th Birthday

Semper Fi to those gone to rest, those serving, and those among us daily.



Happy Birthday Pat...Semper Fi Marine
PGFS 12z and the ECMWF 00z have fundamentally different solutions for early next week. Still highly uncertain what will happen and probably won't be figured out until late in the week.
Quoting Abacosurf:
We call this "clickbait" - people are looking for likes and clicks, and a wild good snow/winter storm forecast is a way to get them, whether the forecast is true or not. Truth doesn't matter in this game - it is all about the battle for your eyeballs.
Like this sar??


News AOL
Bitter weather likely to hammer US this week.


Bitter and hammer in one sentence!! YIKES!!
Yes, it is. Not only for the picture and the verbiage, but for the location. This storm is early but it's hitting places that are not only used to this kind of weather but have it all winter long. It's 29 with ice pellets now in Minneapolis. That's not even "bad" weather in Minnesota. It's not even forecast to get below zero - as a low - until Friday. People in the upper Midwest start feeling pain when the high doesn't get above zero. BTW, a quick Google image search reveals it's from a picture taken during a Detroit snowstorm in January of this year. No matter though, someone in the area of bitter hammering could look like that at some point, so it's only a little fib. :-)
Quoting 68. Gearsts:

What's the average for and El nino to be declared?





i think it needs too be above 0.5 or higher for a 3 moth average i dont think it been 3 moths yet
Quoting robintampabay:



Happy Birthday Pat...Semper Fi Marine

Is it really Pat's birthday? Or what?
Quoting 74. ricderr:
Quoting 65. weathermanwannabe:
Starting to wonder if the current lower gas prices also extend to natural gas (does anybody on here know?); our friends in the North-NE might be looking at some harsh winter conditions and those with fixed incomes might need a break with their upcoming Winter heating bills. Or, you need to start on building up on your firewood collection now....


Some folks in Maine are a bit screwed. They were told that natural gas would be available for the upcoming winter. That was until the company putting in the gas pipelines, using an automated tunneling/pipe laying machine, put the gas pipe through the center of a sewer main. Didn't know about it till a homeowner called roto-rooter because sewage was backing up into his basement.
Quoting tlawson48:


Some folks in Maine are a bit screwed. They were told that natural gas would be available for the upcoming winter. That was until the company putting in the gas pipelines, using an automated tunneling/pipe laying machine, put the gas pipe through the center of a sewer main. Didn't know about it till a homeowner called roto-rooter because sewage was backing up into his basement.

What The Heck? No way. No Freaking way!
Quoting 62. Neapolitan:

My only comment on this morning's hysterical forecast of snow across the South was that when speaking of areas as large as Texas, anyone wishing to be taken seriously should strive to be accurate. Again, Texas is huge: the northern tip of Texas is closer to Fargo, ND, than it is to the southern tip of the state; the western tip of the state is closer to Santa Barbara, CA, than it is to the eastern edge; and the eastern edge is closer to Charlotte, NC, than it is to the western edge. And did you know Corpus Christi is closer to Havana, Cuba, than it is to Denver?

So please be precise. It'll help everyone here. Thanks! ;-)


Yes, because when people say it won't snow east of the Appalachians everyone can know exactly the location the blogger was mistaken at when stating a forecast..

If grown people don't know the geography of the US that actually live in the US and can't read a key of a map that shows the pretty pink and purple colors of snowfall then the problem might be of something else they may need help with..

I can say even concerning those particular maps everyone has a problem with or probably just the blogger as it seems a lot of people can't help themselves is that Dr. Maue asked that they not be posted as recently a few days ago..So really commenting on Weatherbell maps should have not been done in the first place on WU or anywhere else on the internet unless you had permission..



gotta go. see ya this afternoon *gulp* I hope...
Looks like a plane trying to land in the Bahamas, in bad weather, hit a shipping container crane & went down, killing nine. On board was a well known pastor.

Quoting 71. robintampabay:




Happy Birthday Pat...Semper Fi Marine



Thanx robin, And ooh, rah too!
Quoting Drakoen:
PGFS 12z and the ECMWF 00z have fundamentally different solutions for early next week. Still highly uncertain what will happen and probably won't be figured out until late in the week.


PGFS is still relatively new to the scene, I'm interested to see how it performs in comparison to the ECMWF. It'll give us somewhat of an idea of which model to look to for winter, imo.
Quoting 78. 62901IL:

What The Heck? No way. No Freaking way!


Yup, The roto-rooter guy spent hours trying to clear the "clog". Eventually had to run a borescope down the sewer pipe only to find a huge gas main in the way.

It's not the only problem. Natural Gas companies are trying to tell everybody that they are the be-all, end-all. Until you find out converting an older home can run close to $10,000. As a result, the company is only getting a trickle of requests for hook-ups, couple this with the longer time that it is taking to install the pipelines and thus the bad press and it just adds up to a poor situation all around.

It is currently cheap, but the price has a tendancy in the last 15 years or so to bounce around a lot.
Quoting 81. Skyepony:

Looks like a plane trying to land in the Bahamas, in bad weather, hit a shipping container crane & went down, killing nine. On board was a well known pastor.




I was looking at the surface bouys earlier this morning off the coast of Florida, and on Grand Bahama Island, and the wind gusts were higher off the coast of Florida than the 1 knot winds at the Bahamas:


Grand Bahama Island

Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location:26.704N 78.995Wbr
Date:Mon, 10 Nov 2014 17:00:00 UTCbr style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Winds:W (270) at 1.9 kt gusting to 1.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:29.93 in and steady
Air Temperature:71.4 F


Off of Cape Canaveral
Station 41009
NDBC
Location:
28.522N 80.188W
Date:Mon, 10 Nov 2014 17:20:00 UTC
Winds:NW (310) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:29.85 in
Air Temperature:72.0 F
Dew Point:64.9 F
Water Temperature:76.8 F
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Starting to wonder if the current lower gas prices also extend to natural gas (does anybody on here know?); our friends in the North-NE might be looking at some harsh winter conditions and those with fixed incomes might need a break with their upcoming Winter heating bills. Or, you need to start on building up on your firewood collection now....
Nat gas is way down from its 52 week high of $5.00 per 1000 cubic feet to $4.37 today. This is up from the low of $3.62 set on October 28, and some of the increase is directly attributable to all the talk about the polar vortex hammering the country. The prices are wholesale on the New York Mercantile Exchange, so retail customer can expect to pay about 50% more. This is still a great deal less than in 2007, when nat gas hit $15.00. Fuel oil, which is actually the more common heating fuel in the upper Midwest, is also down significantly this year, although it has increased as well over the last two weeks in response to the hammering blast stories. Believe me, energy traders love seeing this kind of hyped news. It's solid gold to them, and a reminder that words have consequences.
Nice blog, Doc. Great pictures. I get cold just looking at them.



Quoting 76. 62901IL:


Is it really Pat's birthday? Or what?


It's the Marine Corps Birthday, it is also a secondary Birthday for all Marines.
Quoting 87. Grothar:

Nice blog, Doc. Great pictures. I get cold just looking at them.






Good Morning Sensei, Made me cold too. Good to live closer to the edges....
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 11:53 AM CST on November 10, 2014
Snow
24 °F
Snow Freezing Fog
Windchill: 14 °F
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 22 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the ENE
Pressure: 29.80 in (Falling)
Visibility: 0.5 miles
Yikes....
Quoting Astrometeor:


Busy with college. I didn't think so much time would be sapped...but yes. I should become incredibly active once winter break arrives, but we shall see. I'll have a month and a half of vacation!

I didn't even know that TWC had named this storm...I would've thought Astro would've gone to that Southern Blizzard...

I've been getting better with checking the blogs the last few days, though. :) Stopped by Rood's blog yesterday.
I hope school is going well. College is a lot different than high school. You get a month and a half break? That's nice. I got the two weeks of Christmas and New Years and I had to spend most of that time working on term papers. Enjoy your break. It will be nice to see you back more often.
Quoting 58. Patrap:

A Birthday Message to US Marines Worldwide from the Commandant of the Marine Corps


Happy 239th Birthday

Semper Fi to those gone to rest, those serving, and those among us daily.


Thanks for your Service Marine and Happy Birthday to the Corps! ... Go Navy, BEAT Army... AGAIN!
Hey dere irg,


.....thank you for yer dedication to preserving & protecting the natural Wonders of your area

Quoting 89. PedleyCA:



Good Morning Sensei, Made me cold too. Good to live closer to the edges....


Morning, Grasshopper. I never liked the cold.
WUnderful day in Daytona Beach. :P



Quoting Patrap:
Hey dere irg,


.....thank you for yer dedication to preserving & protecting the natural Wonders of your area

Happy Birthday Pat. Hopefully we can get sone snow soon. Accuweather is forecasting snow for me on Dec. 20 go figure.
Quoting 85. weathermanwannabe:



I was looking at the surface bouys earlier this morning off the coast of Florida, and on Grand Bahama Island, and the wind gusts were higher off the coast of Florida than the 1 knot winds at the Bahamas:

That article wasn't clear when it happened just that the probe had begun. It may have been yesterday. A commercial jet trying to land right in front of it turned away because of severe weather conditions. To run into a crane might suggest a lack of visibility or control.
Low pressure off the Northeast FL coast - Cloudy with some showers

A developing slow moving area of low pressure offshore the northeast Florida coast will continue to deepen through the afternoon. Breezy conditions can be expected along the Brevard and Volusia county coasts with winds of 15 to 20 mph and occasional showers. Locally heavy rain amounts of one and a half to two inches will be possible mainly over Volusia...North Lake and Seminole counties. Elsewhere a mild afternoon can be expected with highs making their way into the 70s over most areas. It will be cooler where persistent cloud cover occurs and rainfall. Wind gusts to gale force will be possible over the well offshore Atlantic waters north of Cape Canaveral this afternoon and evening.

Quoting 70. ricderr:

What's the average for and El nino to be declared?


0.5C above average for three consecutive months...now the last 12 weeks has been at 0.5C...,,,however.....i'm thinking noaa looks at calendar months


Is very possible that CPC declares officially El Nino on it's December monthly update of the 4th as all the trends right now point towards that.
Quoting 83. CybrTeddy:



PGFS is still relatively new to the scene, I'm interested to see how it performs in comparison to the ECMWF. It'll give us somewhat of an idea of which model to look to for winter, imo.



you guys got a link too the so called PGFS seem like none of us have ever heard of it be for
That plane crash was yesterday..
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I was looking at the surface bouys earlier this morning off the coast of Florida, and on Grand Bahama Island, and the wind gusts were higher off the coast of Florida than the 1 knot winds at the Bahamas:


Grand Bahama Island

Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location:26.704N 78.995Wbr
Date:Mon, 10 Nov 2014 17:00:00 UTCbr style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Winds:W (270) at 1.9 kt gusting to 1.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:29.93 in and steady
Air Temperature:71.4 F


Off of Cape Canaveral
Station 41009
NDBC
Location:
28.522N 80.188W
Date:Mon, 10 Nov 2014 17:20:00 UTC
Winds:NW (310) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:29.85 in
Air Temperature:72.0 F
Dew Point:64.9 F
Water Temperature:76.8 F
The crash happened yesterday afternoon, apparently during a squall line that was well shown on radar at the time. The Lear 36 is a long-range variant of the Lear 35, and nine passengers plus what I assume was pilot and co-pilot is actually a slight overload for that aircraft. I'm sure the tower must have warned the pilot of an aborted landing by a commercial aircraft just before this crash. The pilot in command makes his own decisions however and is ultimately responsible for what happens. This minister and his wife were headed for an important religious conference and had a meeting scheduled with Andrew Young, former US UN ambassador, right after the plane would have landed. I don't know how much of a role that might have played in the decision to land but it's a tragic event no matter what the cause.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
WUnderful day in Daytona Beach. :P



I wish some of that would head toward Alabama. I think that area of Florida has already had a considerable amount of rain over the past several months, so it would be nice if got spread out a little.
Quoting 88. robintampabay:


It's the Marine Corps Birthday, it is also a secondary Birthday for all Marines.


And a tertiary birthday to Navy Hospital Corpsmen! OohRah!!
Quoting 100. Tazmanian:




you guys got a link too the so called PGFS seem like none of us have ever heard of it be for
The Parallel GFS is right below the current GFS on Tropical Tidbits. Here's the link to the parallel: Link
Quoting 62. Neapolitan:

My only comment on this morning's hysterical forecast of snow across the South was that when speaking of areas as large as Texas, anyone wishing to be taken seriously should strive to be accurate. Again, Texas is huge: the northern tip of Texas is closer to Fargo, ND, than it is to the southern tip of the state; the western tip of the state is closer to Santa Barbara, CA, than it is to the eastern edge; and the eastern edge is closer to Charlotte, NC, than it is to the western edge. And did you know Corpus Christi is closer to Havana, Cuba, than it is to Denver?

So please be precise. It'll help everyone here. Thanks! ;-)
I think pretty much everyone is aware of how big Texas is. We've all been hearing about that since we first understood language, most any language.

Your points are well taken but do not negate the fact that snow in any part of Texas in November is not "normal" or "average." It is not however by any means unprecedented.

When comparing the local climates in Texas, the latitudes and longitudes are not nearly as important as the altitudes and/or proximity to large bodies of warm water, such as the Gulf of Mexico. The Texas Panhandle can get mighty cold and snowy because the land there is significantly above sea level and is on the open Plains, in the natural channel for arctic air that is caused by the proximity to the Rocky Mountains to the west combined with an unbroken and flat landmass that extends for thousands of miles due north to the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost border of Texas is slightly further south than the northern border of Tennessee but it is on the high plains and very close to the more typically frigid Colorado.
El Nino isn't declared til there is five consecutive, overlapping 3 month averages at or above 0.5. ASO (August/Sept/Oct) was 0.2...If all of Nov was warm enough to average SON to 0.5 or more and it stayed warm enough, an offical El Nino wouldn't be declared til the JFM numbers were in...Which doesn't happen til the beginning of April. April is the absolute earliest an offical El Nino would be declared by NOAA at this point.
Looked like alot of snow for much of TX on the animated wunder version of the ECMWF snowcast..
El Nino isn't declared til there is five consecutive, overlapping 3 month averages at or above 0.5. ASO (August/Sept/Oct) was 0.2...If all of Nov was warm enough to average SON to 0.5 or more and it stayed warm enough, an offical El Nino wouldn't be declared til the JFM numbers were in...Which doesn't happen til the beginning of April. April is the absolute earliest an offical El Nino would be declared by NOAA at this point.

skye......from what i understand......it can and often is called before then...but has to meet that criteria to be official...i think there was a piece about that in the enso blog.....i'll have to go back and check
Early snowfalls in Texas.

September 29, 1984

Slightly earlier, but isolated.
September 27, 1936
ricderr~ Once it's 0.5 or above it's El Nino conditions. What I said there about the 5 consecutive three month averages is needed for an offical el nino to be declared. That link I added shows it nicely..the numbers in red are part of an offical el nino, those in blue offical La nina..

here you go skye.....this is what i was referring to

El Niño “events” versus El Niño “conditions”

However, the folks at NOAA CPC and the IRI issue their ENSO Diagnostics Discussion and update the ENSO Alert System every month. If it’s issued monthly, then will it take three months to say El Niño has arrived?

The short answer is no. Knowing that ENSO is a coupled climate pattern between the atmosphere and ocean (see earlier post) gives us an ability to provide information on a monthly timescale. We will declare the onset of El Niño conditions (not yet a full-blown El Niño event) when three criteria are met:

Departures in the Niño-3.4 index equal to or exceeding +0.5C for a single month.
The tropical Pacific atmosphere should be consistent with El Niño. In particular, rainfall should be enhanced near the Date Line and suppressed near Indonesia, and the surface winds across parts of the equatorial Pacific should be anomalously westerly.
A forecast that the ONI will equal or exceed +0.5C for several seasons in a row.
Have there been cases when the ONI exceeded +0.5C for a couple seasons in a row, but El Niño was never declared? Yes, this happened most recently in 2012, when two seasons were warm enough to reach El Niño levels. But the atmosphere and, in particular, the pattern of tropical convection resembled the opposite state of El Niño—La Niña. So, an El Niño Advisory was never issued.
here's a good explanation of why the chances for el nino were lowered

Details on the November ENSO forecast: slip-slidin’ away?
Author: Emily Becker
Thursday, November 6, 2014
The CPC/IRI ENSO forecast has dropped the likelihood of El Niño again, to 58%, despite the presence of “borderline” El Niño conditions (i.e. warmer equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, and some reduction in rain over Indonesia). El Niño is still expected, but with less confidence. What is it about this year that may be making it harder to forecast?

Many studies, using both long-term climate model simulations and observed data, have found that ENSO changes on decadal (10-year) or longer timescales. This low-frequency or interdecadal variability includes changes in ENSO strength (variance) and frequency (how often events re-occur).

In other words, in one decade, the pattern may be weak El Niño events followed by weak La Niña events every other year, and then the next decade the pattern may be just a handful of strong, irregularly spaced events. These decadal shifts are largely not predictable (Wittenberg et al. 2014; if you’re interested in a lot of technical detail about the interdecadal variability of ENSO, check out the references in that article.)

In an earlier post, I discussed the start times we’ve seen in ENSO events in the past, and mentioned how in the last decade, we’ve seen events starting later in the year than in decades prior. This isn’t the only recent change in the characteristics of ENSO, though, and many scientists think we have seen a shift in low-frequency variability since around the year 2000 (e.g. Yeh et al. 2009, Lee and McPhaden 2010). These shifts may make ENSO prediction harder for today’s state-of-the-art climate models to predict.

One example of the evidence of a change in ENSO behavior is that El Niño events since 2000 have tended toward the central Pacific flavor, and there have been more frequent, less intense events (Lee and McPhaden 2010, Hu et al. 2013). Along with weaker ENSO, we’ve observed changes in the thermocline, the line that separates the warmer upper ocean and the colder deeper waters (often identified by the depth of the 20°C layer).

The thermocline is now deeper in the western Pacific, and shallower in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1), which means that colder waters are closer to the surface in the eastern Pacific (Wen et al. 2014). Yet another change is that winds near the equator are more easterly, indicating a strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (e.g. L’Heureux et al., 2013; Sohn et al., 2013).

Thermocline/winds/El Nino schematic
Figure 1: Schematic of average thermocline position and easterly winds, pre-2000 (left) and post-2000 (right). Shading shows average sea surface anomalies during El Niño events in each of the two periods. Figure by climate.gov.
All of these changes affect the development of ENSO, and one implication of the shift in decadal (or longer) variability is that ENSO may be less predictable while this phase interdecadal variability is underway. For example, much of the predictability of ENSO is based on the slow movement of warm Pacific subsurface ocean waters. In the period prior to 2000, anomalies in the warm water volume would occur six or eight months before the start of an ENSO event. Since 2000, this lead time has shrunk to only two or three months (Fig. 2; McPhaden 2012).

WWV and Nino3.4 index
Figure 2: Warm water volume anomalies in the tropical Pacific (green) and Niño3.4 index (purple). Figure by climate.gov from CPC data.
In addition, the shift toward weaker, more centrally located El Niños is more difficult for climate models to capture (e.g. Kirtman et al., 2013; Xue et al. 2013). The depth of the thermocline, equatorial winds, and sea surface temperatures are inextricably linked–and so the combination of certain factors results in changes in how well ENSO can be predicted.

An illustration of how weaker events are harder to predict is shown by the four “missed” events in the model prediction of the October-December ENSO index: all were weak events that the models thought would be neutral (three of these four have been since 2000). The “false alarm” forecast of 2012 was for a weaker El Niño (Niño3.4 between +0.5 and +1.0°C) that never occurred. If an El Niño develops this year, it’s likely to be weak.

What is this 58% confidence–still close to 3-in-5 odds–based on, then? Well, surface temperature anomalies are hovering around the +0.5°C threshold, and most of the dynamical models are still calling for increasing Niño3.4 anomalies. As well, another downwelling Kelvin wave has developed (Fig. 3), which will continue to supply the central and eastern Pacific with warmer-than-average sea surface conditions.

The CFSv2 has an unusual forecast (some slight cooling in the Niño3.4 region, then increasing warm anomalies through the spring) that’s difficult to interpret. We’re still not seeing much of an atmospheric response to the surface warming, so there is now concern that if El Niño conditions are achieved, they won’t persist for the five overlapping seasons required for this to be called an El Niño event. So, we’re still calling for the development of El Niño–just with less confidence.
Quoting 105. wxchaser97:

The Parallel GFS is right below the current GFS on Tropical Tidbits. Here's the link to the parallel: Link



thanks
Annual Snowfall for the state.




something spinning off the east coast!!
With the upcoming harsh cold being predicted on the models please help someone by donating a new or used gentle coat to someone in need..there are a lot of homeless people without coats along with children who go to school without a coat in winter..

I went in my closet over the weekend and donated several coats to the Salvation Army today..

You can google and find a lot of organizations along with retail stores that participate in this fundraising effort..

Your points are well taken but do not negate the fact that snow in any part of Texas in November is not "normal" or "average." It is not however by any means unprecedented.


actually i think if you look.......november snowfall in some part of the state...is not that uncommon.....at least once every couple of years.....now i've only lived in el paso for 5 years...but even here snow has fallen twice in november in that time


Your points are well taken but do not negate the fact that snow in any part of Texas in November is not "normal" or "average." It is not however by any means unprecedented.


actually i think if you look.......november snowfall in some part of the state...is not that uncommon.....at least once every couple of years.....now i've only lived in el paso for 5 years...but even here snow has fallen twice in november in that time


to give you an idea...here's a look at amarillo

Quoting Skyepony:
ricderr~ Once it's 0.5 or above it's El Nino conditions. What I said there about the 5 consecutive three month averages is needed for an offical el nino to be declared. That link I added shows it nicely..the numbers in red are part of an offical el nino, those in blue offical La nina..



Correct. 2012 was technically an El Nino year, although it wasn't officially declared because ENSO conditions didn't persist long enough, but El Nino conditions most certainly did exist in 2012 (at least during hurricane season).
Quoting Tazmanian:



you guys got a link too the so called PGFS seem like none of us have ever heard of it be for


It's on Levi's site, Parallel GFS.




fall pictures
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6m 6 minutes ago

Banding features starting to form around small low off Fla coast. May wrap up quickly tonight and tomorrow http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&p roduct=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes …
126. flsky
Started raining last night here in Ponce Inlet. Still raining now and getting heavier - even heard a bit of thunder off in the distance earlier. Not going to be fun walking my dog.

Quoting 98. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Low pressure off the Northeast FL coast - Cloudy with some showers

A developing slow moving area of low pressure offshore the northeast Florida coast will continue to deepen through the afternoon. Breezy conditions can be expected along the Brevard and Volusia county coasts with winds of 15 to 20 mph and occasional showers. Locally heavy rain amounts of one and a half to two inches will be possible mainly over Volusia...North Lake and Seminole counties. Elsewhere a mild afternoon can be expected with highs making their way into the 70s over most areas. It will be cooler where persistent cloud cover occurs and rainfall. Wind gusts to gale force will be possible over the well offshore Atlantic waters north of Cape Canaveral this afternoon and evening.


12Z GFS snowfall map 192 hours


Some of the old timers might remember this game.
Florida State vs. North Texas
Nov. 13th, 1976



http://texashistory.unt.edu; crediting UNT Archives, Denton, Texas.

Link
128. flsky
Banding is evident now on radar.
Quoting 125. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6m 6 minutes ago

Banding features starting to form around small low off Fla coast. May wrap up quickly tonight and tomorrow http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&a mp;p roduct=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes …
Latest Snow Reports/Totals
Winter Storm Astro dumped the season's first snow in Bismarck, North Dakota Sunday, with 3.2 inches measured at the National Weather Service office. This first snow in North Dakota's capital city arrived about two weeks later than average. Up to 7 inches had accumulated in North Dakota, as of late Monday morning.

No travel was advised in Bowman, Dunn, McKenzie and Mercer Counties in western North Dakota Sunday. Snow-covered roads were reported as far east as northwest Wisconsin Monday morning, including the Twin Cities metro area Monday morning.

Webster, South Dakota, chalked up the state's heaviest total (8 inches) and patchy freezing drizzle had deposited a thin layer of ice on roads in parts of northern South Dakota.

Parts of western and central Minnesota had measured up to 9 inches of snow, as of late Monday morning. Dr. Bob Weisman at St. Cloud State University had reported 7 inches of snow. Meteorologist Mike Seidel reported 4 inches of snow had fallen in Forest Lake, Minnesota, a far northern suburb of the Twin Cities.

Up to 9 inches of snow blanketed parts of southern and eastern Montana, including Red Lodge (9 inches), Glasgow (6 inches) and Glendive (4 inches). The Whitefish Ski Resort's Big Mountain Summit tallied 14 inches of snow in far northwest Montana. Drifts up to 2 feet around buildings were observed near Brusett, in northeast Montana.
Quoting 128. flsky:

Banding is evident now on radar.


Looks like the low off of Florida is organizing a bit.

Last true Deep Dixie Blue Norther was Xmas 1989


Got to 11F in NOLA Burbs.


A Frozen Lake Pontchartrain South Shore

Quoting 125. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi %uFFFD 6m 6 minutes ago

Banding features starting to form around small low off Fla coast. May wrap up quickly tonight and tomorrow http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&a mp;p roduct=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes %u2026


Volusia County is really getting pounded right now especially at the coast with heavy rains and strong winds. Rain has been off and on last week I actually called this back last Thursday even when the NWS had sunny skies with no rain forecast. I simply pointed out what the Euro was showing and oh boy the wolf pack came out in force.

Crow again is being served:)



Neat little non-tropical low. I've been seeing this on the models for the last few days. Wrapping in dry air around it so it's giving absolutely beautiful weather to people on the west coast of Florida.



Yep.



maybe a yellow x soon
Any chance the developing and deepening low pressure east of Daytona Beach, FL might develop any sub-tropical characteristics in the next 2 days?

Regardless of what happens ...... it looks impressive on satellite and radar!
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 6m 6 minutes ago

Banding features starting to form around small low off Fla coast. May wrap up quickly tonight and tomorrow http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&a mp;p roduct=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes …


He's also checking the models.
The 12Z GFS has the system as a 996mb low in 66 hours.
Quoting 134. CybrTeddy:

Neat little non-tropical low. I've been seeing this on the models for the last few days. Wrapping in dry air around it so it's giving absolutely beautiful weather to people on the west coast of Florida.




Could become sub-tropical or tropical being over the gulf stream.



very dark and drizzly e c.fl.
Quoting 132. Patrap:

Last true Deep Dixie Blue Norther was Xmas 1989


Got to 11F in NOLA Burbs.


A Frozen Lake Pontchartrain South Shore


I like those DBN,s...They make white flaky stuff fall on Southern Florida..:)
Quoting hurricanes2018:


maybe a yellow x soon


Orlando must have their rain shield up. The precipitation has been sitting just to their north all day.
Offically only .06" of rain today there.

I thought Fort Myers was the only Florida city with a functioning rain shield.
Quoting 142. Sfloridacat5:



Orlando must have their rain shield up. The precipitation has been sitting just to their north all day.
Offically only .06" of rain today there.

I thought Fort Myers was the only Florida city with a functioning rain shield.


Raining here pretty good here but 10 to 15 miles south into Orlando its rain free. Very dark fast moving clouds here
Quoting 62. Neapolitan:

My only comment on this morning's hysterical forecast of snow across the South was that when speaking of areas as large as Texas, anyone wishing to be taken seriously should strive to be accurate. Again, Texas is huge: the northern tip of Texas is closer to Fargo, ND, than it is to the southern tip of the state; the western tip of the state is closer to Santa Barbara, CA, than it is to the eastern edge; and the eastern edge is closer to Charlotte, NC, than it is to the western edge. And did you know Corpus Christi is closer to Havana, Cuba, than it is to Denver?

So please be precise. It'll help everyone here. Thanks! ;-)
That is some fine geo-poetry, Nea, I'll be sure to save that one for my oil-patch-born-Bob-Wills-loving friend.

Some pretty impressive wrap-around moisture from the low off the coast of E. Central Florida. The roads were dry north of Cocoa on my weekly commute to Orlando last night, but taking a late lunch on my downtown Orlando apartment balcony facing south towards I-4, the SunRail tracks and the Lynx Bus Station just now a light mist is turning into some actual rain drops. Any rain is good rain during the dry season.
12z models are suppressing the GOM storm to the south; strong HP isn't always a good thing can leave you cold and dry. We'll see if the trend continues.
Quoting 130. Abacosurf:




This low might be closed based on this animated map of surface level winds. Will be interesting to see if it can keep the dry air out of the center.
Quoting islander101010:
very dark and drizzly e c.fl.


Hopefully tomorrow you will get in on some of this beautiful weather.
Sunny, nice northwest breeze, temp in the upper 70s. It really doesn't get much better than that.
Fort Myers Beach
Quoting 132. Patrap:

Last true Deep Dixie Blue Norther was Xmas 1989


Got to 11F in NOLA Burbs.


A Frozen Lake Pontchartrain South Shore




Yes, I remember that here in SE TX as well, Houston hit 5 degrees, Galveston hit 12, and at my place hit 8 degrees. Still trying to figure out what kind of pattern was setup for that, and how big of snowpack was in the plains for that kind of air to get that far south not modified. We may never see an event like that again in our lifetimes.
Quoting 106. FLWaterFront:

I think pretty much everyone is aware of how big Texas is. We've all been hearing about that since we first understood language, most any language.

Your points are well taken but do not negate the fact that snow in any part of Texas in November is not "normal" or "average." It is not however by any means unprecedented.

When comparing the local climates in Texas, the latitudes and longitudes are not nearly as important as the altitudes and/or proximity to large bodies of warm water, such as the Gulf of Mexico. The Texas Panhandle can get mighty cold and snowy because the land there is significantly above sea level and is on the open Plains, in the natural channel for arctic air that is caused by the proximity to the Rocky Mountains to the west combined with an unbroken and flat landmass that extends for thousands of miles due north to the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost border of Texas is slightly further south than the northern border of Tennessee but it is on the high plains and very close to the more typically frigid Colorado.

The thing is, my original post had absolutely nothing to do with November snowfall in Texas, average or otherwise. Rather, it was about the errors inherent in applying blanket statements to weather in Texas without recognizing that, due to its size, weather in one part of the state is very seldom the same as the weather in other parts of it many hundreds of miles away. That's all.

HOWEVER...Amarillo--firmly in the Texas Panhandle--receives an average of 2.5" of snow every November, and even 0.2" of snow every October. In fact, Amarillo has seen snow in every month of the year from September through May. (1906 saw 9." in October, and 14.8" in November.) So, yes, November snow in Texas--the northern parts--is very much normal.
I've never understood why excess weight is put on the official El Nino declaration by the CPC. A sustained period of warm waters in the Pacific will modify the atmosphere regardless of whether it fits a specific criteria.
Possibly a rain/snow mix Thurs night.
Quoting Patrap:
Last true Deep Dixie Blue Norther was Xmas 1989


Got to 11F in NOLA Burbs.


A Frozen Lake Pontchartrain South Shore

1989 is when we had a white Christmas everybody remembers that one over a foot of snow with single digit temps Christmas morning in eastern nc

With the Arctic ice increasing.....Is that why the U.S. is experiencing epic winter temps the past couple of years????


you don't get out much do you.......try reading the last few blogs and you'll get up to speed
Noaa Bouys got pressure dropping and winds increasing. This is roughly 100 miles from what appears to be the center.
Since 11:50am winds have increased from 17.5k0nts to 27.2 knots and gusting to 31.1 knots. and pressure has decreased from 29.87 in to 29.84 in. Winds at 30mph gusting to 35mph and pressure at 1010mb.

11 10 1:50 pm NW 27.2 31.1 6.9 9 5.2 N 29.84 -0.04 69.3 77.2 62.8 - - -
11 10 1:20 pm NW 23.3 31.1 - - - - 29.85 - 70.3 77.0 63.3 - - -
11 10 12:50 pm WNW 25.3 31.1 6.9 6 5.3 NNW 29.85 -0.03 70.5 77.0 63.3 - - -
11 10 12:20 pm NW 19.4 23.3 - - - - 29.85 - 72.0 76.8 64.9 - - -
11 10 11:50 am NW 17.5 21.4 6.2 6 5.1 N 29.87 0.00 72.3 76.8 64.4

Correction this is much much closer to the center than I thought it was, within 20 or 30 miles.
If you've been watching NBCnews, it's "The return of the Polar Vortex."

That sounds like the title to a Syfy movie.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:



That looks like a Tropical Storm developing or a nor Easter developing. Any takers.
It looks like night outside and the rain bands keep circulating in. Went for lunch and my pants are wet. An umbrella is useless.

Daytona Beach, FL
3:12 PM EST on November 10, 2014 (GMT -0500) ERAU Daytona Beach | Change Station
Elev 26 ft 29.18 N, 81.05 W | Updated -45 sec ago

Heavy Rain
Heavy Rain Mist
63.7 F
Feels Like 63.7 F
N6
Wind Variable
Gusts 10.0 mph
Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday.

Today
High 72 | Low 57 F
60% Chance of Precip.
Yesterday
High 69.3 | Low 58.6 F
Precip. 0.2 in (Radar Loop)

Pressure 29.92 in
Visibility 1.0 miles
Clouds Scattered Clouds 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1000 ft
Overcast 4000 ft
Dew Point 63 F
Humidity 99%
Rainfall 1.42 in
Snow Depth Not available.
UV 0.0 out of 12
Pollen .90 out of 12
Air Quality Not available.
Flu Activity Not available.
METAR KDAB 101953Z VRB05KT 1SM RA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC040 17/17 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP139 P0035 T0172017
162. eddye
storm tracker scott im ready FOR THE COLD AIR
Quoting 151. Neapolitan:


The thing is, my original post had absolutely nothing to do with November snowfall in Texas, average or otherwise. Rather, it was about the errors inherent in applying blanket statements to weather in Texas without recognizing that, due to its size, weather in one part of the state is very seldom the same as the weather in other parts of it many hundreds of miles away. That's all.

HOWEVER...Amarillo--firmly in the Texas Panhandle--receives an average of 2.5" of snow every November, and even 0.2" of snow every October. In fact, Amarillo has seen snow in every month of the year from September through May. (1906 saw 9." in October, and 14.8" in November.) So, yes, November snow in Texas--the northern parts--is very much normal.


Fact is as I illustrated much of Texas had snow being forecast by the Euro. Again one model GFS had no snow at all in Texas just thought it was interesting and posted it backed by actual data not just a blanket statement. Never said it would happen just posted the model showing a possible event down the road.

Now if that was a map showing the US being blow torched by record heat then you would be all over it.
165. flsky
I hope everyone realizes, Scott, that you called this one, especially since they give you such a hard time constantly.
Quoting 143. StormTrackerScott:



Raining here pretty good here but 10 to 15 miles south into Orlando its rain free. Very dark fast moving clouds here
Quoting 160. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It looks like night outside and the rain bands keep circulating in. Went for lunch and my pants are wet. An umbrella is useless.

Daytona Beach, FL
3:12 PM EST on November 10, 2014 (GMT -0500) ERAU Daytona Beach | Change Station
Elev 26 ft 29.18 �N, 81.05 �W | Updated -45 sec ago

Heavy Rain
Heavy Rain Mist
63.7 �F
Feels Like 63.7 �F
N6
Wind Variable
Gusts 10.0 mph
Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday.

Today
High 72 | Low 57 �F
60% Chance of Precip.
Yesterday
High 69.3 | Low 58.6 �F
Precip. 0.2 in (Radar Loop)

Pressure 29.92 in
Visibility 1.0 miles
Clouds Scattered Clouds 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1000 ft
Overcast 4000 ft
Dew Point 63 �F
Humidity 99%
Rainfall 1.42 in
Snow Depth Not available.
UV 0.0 out of 12
Pollen .90 out of 12
Air Quality Not available.
Flu Activity Not available.
METAR KDAB 101953Z VRB05KT 1SM RA BR SCT006 BKN010 OVC040 17/17 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP139 P0035 T0172017


Very dark and rainy here in Longwood too.
Quoting 156. ricderr:


With the Arctic ice increasing.....Is that why the U.S. is experiencing epic winter temps the past couple of years????


you don't get out much do you.......try reading the last few blogs and you'll get up to speed


Go get 'em Ric:)
Quoting Andrebrooks:
That looks like a Tropical Storm developing or a nor Easter developing. Any takers.


Because of the way the low is pulling everything into its center, it seems to be taking on some tropical characteristics. The system seems to be transitioning into a Sub-Tropical system.

Lots of cool dry air being pulled into the system from the S.W. (which is pretty common with systems like this).

But it does look like it has some tropical characteristics.
Quoting 165. flsky:

I hope everyone realizes, Scott, that you called this one, especially since they give you such a hard time constantly.



I called the South Carolina snow event too when Nea and many others said it was hype.
Climate change expected to expand majority of ocean dead zones

A full 94 percent of the dead zones in the world’s oceans lie in regions expected to warm at least 2 degrees Celsius by the century’s end according to a new report from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center published Nov. 10 in Global Change Biology. The paper states that warmer waters—mixed with other climate change factors—make for a dangerous cocktail that can expand dead zones.

Dead zones form in waters where oxygen plummets to levels too low for fish, crabs or other animals to survive. In deeper waters, dead zones may last for months, as with the annual summer dead zone in the Chesapeake Bay. Temporary dead zones may occur in shallow waters at night. The largest dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico and Baltic Sea can cover more than 20,000 square miles of the sea floor. The number of dead zones across the world is growing exponentially, doubling each decade since the 1960s.

“They’re having a big impact on life in the coastal zone worldwide,” said Keryn Gedan, a co-author and marine ecologist at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center and the University of Maryland. “A lot of people live on the coast, and they’re experiencing more fish kills and more harmful algal blooms. These are effects of dead zones that have an impact on our lives.”




Link

Feds to Decide on Maine Shrimp Season Cancellation


A report by the committee says the "depleted condition of the resource and poor prospects for the near future" warrant another closure. The report blames rising ocean temperature for the decline. Regulators say the fishery's estimated population fell by a factor of 14 from 2011 to 2013.

Link

A classic definition of the word "crash". And a echo of the crash of the lobster fishery in Long Island Sound.
Quoting 164. StormTrackerScott:



Fact is as I illustrated much of Texas had snow being forecast by the Euro. Again one model GFS had no snow at all in Texas just thought it was interesting and posted it backed by actual data not just a blanket statement. Never said it would happen just posted the model showing a possible event down the road.

Now if that was a map showing the US being blow torched by record heat then you would be all over it.

Be sure not to do that again. Just as a heads up, If Ryan Maue finds out you're posting ECMWF snowfall maps, he will discontinue your WeatherBELL account. The only ECMWF products allowed to be freely distributed are 850mb temperatures (and anomalies), 500mb heights (and anomalies), and 850mb winds and mean sea level pressures.
173. eddye
good JOB STORM tracker scott
Quoting SensesFail:
Noaa Bouys got pressure dropping and winds increasing. This is roughly 100 miles from what appears to be the center.
Since 11:50am winds have increased from 17.5k0nts to 27.2 knots and gusting to 31.1 knots. and pressure has decreased from 29.87 in to 29.84 in. Winds at 30mph gusting to 35mph and pressure at 1010mb.

11 10 1:50 pm NW 27.2 31.1 6.9 9 5.2 N 29.84 -0.04 69.3 77.2 62.8 - - -
11 10 1:20 pm NW 23.3 31.1 - - - - 29.85 - 70.3 77.0 63.3 - - -
11 10 12:50 pm WNW 25.3 31.1 6.9 6 5.3 NNW 29.85 -0.03 70.5 77.0 63.3 - - -
11 10 12:20 pm NW 19.4 23.3 - - - - 29.85 - 72.0 76.8 64.9 - - -
11 10 11:50 am NW 17.5 21.4 6.2 6 5.1 N 29.87 0.00 72.3 76.8 64.4

Correction this is much much closer to the center than I thought it was, within 20 or 30 miles.
It's a low that should start rapidly moving NE by tomorrow morning. As it does, it will follow the stalled frontal boundary until it's eventually absorbed by the existing trough of low press further east in the Atlantic. Its chances to become tropical cyclone look pretty low right now.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Be sure not to do that again. Just as a heads up, If Ryan Maue finds out you're posting ECMWF snowfall maps, he will discontinue your WeatherBELL account. The only ECMWF products allowed to be freely distributed are 850mb temperatures (and anomalies), 500mb heights (and anomalies), and 850mb winds and mean sea level pressures.
All of which you can get free directly from the ECMWF, BTW.
Quoting 172. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Be sure not to do that again. Just as a heads up, If Ryan Maue finds out you're posting ECMWF snowfall maps, he will discontinue your WeatherBELL account. The only ECMWF products allowed to be freely distributed are 850mb temperatures (and anomalies), 500mb heights (and anomalies), and 850mb winds and mean sea level pressures.


I didn't know that. Even if I did its not like he would know who I am.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST MON NOV 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Visible satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure located about 320 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a
little better defined this morning. While shower and thunderstorm
activity is located mainly east and northeast of the center due to
strong upper-level winds, a tropical depression could form later
today while the system moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-
level winds are expected to become even less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation by tonight and early Tuesday. Regardless of
development, this system could bring rain and gusty winds to
portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Quoting 169. StormTrackerScott:



I called the South Carolina snow event too when Nea and many others said it was hype.


Did you actually call it as in an official forecast or did you just post a model run? You seem to pick and choose when it is a forecast or just showing a model run. It depends on the outcome when you come back on here and tell the blog to eat crow. Much like today with the Texas snow. You stated that you simply are showing a model run. So if it happens, don't come on here telling the blog to eat crow.....
179. flsky
Might be a good idea just to know you are right and not point it out to your critics. This just embarrasses them and makes them angry. They very much know when you've been accurate.
Quoting 169. StormTrackerScott:



I called the South Carolina snow event too when Nea and many others said it was hype.


snow in the northeast
Quoting 150. RitaEvac:



Yes, I remember that here in SE TX as well, Houston hit 5 degrees, Galveston hit 12, and at my place hit 8 degrees. Still trying to figure out what kind of pattern was setup for that, and how big of snowpack was in the plains for that kind of air to get that far south not modified. We may never see an event like that again in our lifetimes.


After this horrendously cold December, January and February of 1990 were mild.

THat air was modified. It was even colder further north with temps in the minus teens to minus twenties below zero in the upper midwest. It was not a record smasher for the DC metro area though, just very cold.

Quoting 169. StormTrackerScott:
I called the South Carolina snow event too when Nea and many others said it was hype.

"Nea" didn't say it was hype, of course; I and a handful of others merely noted that, despite repeated breathless "forecasts" from some here, there would definitely not be any snowfall along the southeastern coast of the US during that Halloween weekend event. And as it turns out, we were entirely accurate.

Again: accuracy and precision. Anything else causes an erosion of credibility, and nobody wants that, amirite?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I didn't know that. Even if I did its not like he would know who I am.
Getting away with wrongdoing doesn't make it any less wrong. And as noted by Drakoen, it's against Weatherbell's rules--and it's against WU's rules, as well.

Quoting 176. StormTrackerScott:



I didn't know that. Even if I did its not like he would know who I am.
That must be a joke. You had to have known that as it is well known throughout the meteorological community.

Straight from the site:

"Subscriber agrees that the Site and its services are furnished and shall be used solely for Subscriber's personal,
business or institutional use, and is subject to our Acceptable Use Policy.

Subscriber shall not have the right
to directly or indirectly transmit, broadcast, redistribute, forward or
deliver the Products or services or any part of the data,
information, images or other products which constitute the Site,
Products and/or services to any other person or entity,
in any format (including, but not limited to framing, deep liking or
embedding), or by any means."
Quoting 179. flsky:

Might be a good idea just to know you are right and not point it out to your critics. This just embarrasses them and makes them angry. They very much know when you've been accurate.



Your right maybe that's why some are so mad all the time not that I haven't had my fair shake of crow too.
From CWG

Given the weather pattern shaping up this winter, a legitimate polar vortex collapse and intrusion towards the U.S. could well happen (maybe even next week?). So if you%u2019re sick of hearing about the vortex, you better hide under a rock somewhere.
Link
Quoting 185. washingtonian115:

From CWG

Given the weather pattern shaping up this winter, a legitimate polar vortex collapse and intrusion towards the U.S. could well happen (maybe even next week?). So if you%u2019re sick of hearing about the vortex, you better hide under a rock somewhere.




I'm sick of hearing about how unusual the polar vortex is. It is a part of our climatology.
Even so it does look like the period from 11/14 to 11/22 or so is going to be remarkably cold and my traditional
custom of supplying top quality garden fresh lettuce at the family thanksgiving dinner may be threatened unless
I protect it from a possible deep freeze. (spinach and broccoli and carrots are safe.. it takes teens or colder
to threaten properly hardened broccoli and spinach and carrots are winter hardy in the DC metro area) Sweetpotatoes and potatoes are already in and I can't stretch the sweetcorn season out that far even in a really warm year.

The ducks and baked goods raw materials are purchased at market. We're not a turkey family.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
If you've been watching NBCnews, it's "The return of the Polar Vortex."

That sounds like the title to a Syfy movie.


Return of the son of the polar vortex maybe?
Quoting 183. Drakoen:


That must be a joke. You had to have known that as it is well known throughout the meteorological community.

Straight from the site:

"Subscriber agrees that the Site and its services are furnished and shall be used solely for Subscriber's personal,
business or institutional use, and is subject to our Acceptable Use Policy.

Subscriber shall not have the right
to directly or indirectly transmit, broadcast, redistribute, forward or
deliver the Products or services or any part of the data,
information, images or other products which constitute the Site,
Products and/or services to any other person or entity,
in any format (including, but not limited to framing, deep liking or
embedding), or by any means."



Actually no I didn't know. So no its not a joke.
189. eddye
get ready fl for the cold air
Quoting 186. georgevandenberghe:




I'm sick of hearing about how unusual the polar vortex is. It is a part of our climatology.
Even so it does look like the period from 11/14 to 11/22 or so is going to be remarkably cold and my traditional
custom of serving top quality garden fresh lettuce at the family thanksgiving dinner may be threatened unless
I protect it from a possible deep freeze. (spinach and broccoli and carrots are safe.. it takes teens or colder
to threaten properly hardened broccoli and spinach and carrots are winter hardy in the DC metro area) Sweetpotatoes and potatoes are already in and I can't stretch the sweetcorn season out that far even in a really warm year.


I forgot to link the article.It's actually bashing people who re misusing the term just to get people to tune in and over hype a situation
Quoting 149. yoboi:

With the Arctic ice increasing.....Is that why the U.S. is experiencing epic winter temps the past couple of years????
no its more to do with cold air displacement wild swings with the jet and dual polar vortexes doing the loop down over north america caused by man and global climate shift and change as its end result

the abnormal will become normal the normal will become abnormal
It looks like Maue is already aware of the snowfall maps being shared.

@RyanMaue
Who was the first person to post the ECMWF 12z snowfall image?
2:11 PM - 10 Nov 2014


the storm off the coast is going to be a fish storm!!
I invite all you people near the ocean to read my post at 170. I live over a 1.000 miles from the ocean, but i follow the oceans . ( That's why I come here ) And the 2 links there..................... Mean your fresh seafood choices are under review.

When dead mussels land on the beach like seaweed in Rode Island , and the shrimp in the Gulf of Maine fall by 90%.

There is a problem .

Living so far from the ocean I never ate much seafood . The idea of raw oysters makes my skin crawl.
Quoting 192. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It looks like Maue is already aware of the snowfall maps being shared.

@RyanMaue
Who was the first person to post the ECMWF 12z snowfall image?
2:11 PM - 10 Nov 2014
he is going to have to start banning people from there site or add a script that will prevent it from being shared
Quoting 192. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It looks like Maue is already aware of the snowfall maps being shared.

@RyanMaue
Who was the first person to post the ECMWF 12z snowfall image?
2:11 PM - 10 Nov 2014


Wasn't me. Now that I know I'll get them from another source. Met sit in the UK is really good but just can't post precip images. I was also told I could post Euro images from weatherbell so this is news to me.
Quoting 106. FLWaterFront:

I think pretty much everyone is aware of how big Texas is. We've all been hearing about that since we first understood language, most any language.

Your points are well taken but do not negate the fact that snow in any part of Texas in November is not "normal" or "average." It is not however by any means unprecedented.

When comparing the local climates in Texas, the latitudes and longitudes are not nearly as important as the altitudes and/or proximity to large bodies of warm water, such as the Gulf of Mexico. The Texas Panhandle can get mighty cold and snowy because the land there is significantly above sea level and is on the open Plains, in the natural channel for arctic air that is caused by the proximity to the Rocky Mountains to the west combined with an unbroken and flat landmass that extends for thousands of miles due north to the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost border of Texas is slightly further south than the northern border of Tennessee but it is on the high plains and very close to the more typically frigid Colorado.


Texas is also ideally situated to get arctic outbreaks that bank up against the east slopes of the Rockies and are driven (fast!) south, a large scale version of the wimpy cold air damming we get in the Appalachians. A north Texas saying "T'aint nothin between Texas and the North Pole but a Bobwire fence" applies to these northers.
Quoting 194. ColoradoBob1:

I invite all you people near the ocean to read my post at 170. I live over a 1.000 miles from the ocean, but i follow the oceans . ( That's why I come here ) And the 2 links there..................... Mean your fresh seafood choices are under review.

When dead mussels land on the beach like seaweed in Rode Island , and the shrimp in the Gulf of Maine fall by 90%.

There is a problem .

Living so far from the ocean I never ate much seafood . The idea of raw oysters makes my skin crawl.

everything is fine move along nothing to see here it was only the fireworks
Quoting 195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

he is going to have to start banning people from there site or add a script that will prevent it from being shared


Must be hurting over at weatherbell.
Quoting 155. absurfer:

1989 is when we had a white Christmas everybody remembers that one over a foot of snow with single digit temps Christmas morning in eastern nc


that was my first sober Christmas... I remember driving to meetings in my unheated truck.. brrrr... next Christmas will be twenty five years sober..
Quoting 200. indianrivguy:



that was my first sober Christmas... I remember driving to meetings in my unheated truck.. brrrr... next Christmas will be twenty five years sober..
good I hope ya can go another 20 years
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014


340 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...


THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH DAYTONA...PORT ORANGE...ORMOND
BY THE SEA...ORMOND BEACH...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...HOLLY HILL...
EDGEWATER...DAYTONA BEACH..
.

* UNTIL 500 PM EST.

* AT 337 PM EST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STEADY
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER EASTERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY. RADAR TOTALS RANGE FROM ONE AND A HALF INCHES OUT TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95 TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OVER THE BARRIER ISLAND
COMMUNITIES. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL IS CAUSING OR IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND ELEVATE RIVER OR STREAM
FLOWS. MINOR FLOODING MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY LANE OR ROAD CLOSURES...
BUT THE THREAT OF WATER ENTERING HOMES AND BUSINESSES IS LOW.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS
WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE
THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE
TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS ARE IN USE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
Quoting 199. StormTrackerScott:



Must be hurting over at weatherbell.
I don't think so I check it out from time to time I just don't reproduce there images because of the request not to do so on there site

Quoting 195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

he is going to have to start banning people from there site or add a script that will prevent it from being shared
I'm not aware of any script that will prevent someone from screenshotting the images on his site.
Quoting 186. georgevandenberghe:




The ducks and baked goods raw materials are purchased at market. We're not a turkey family.




Hear hear !
TWC said winds gusting to 68 mph across the northern Plains.
Catch phrases used within a minute of watching.
"Polar Arctic Intrusion"
"Polar Outbreak"
"Arctic Blast"
"Bitter Blast"
Quoting 204. Drakoen:


I'm not aware of any script that will prevent someone from screenshotting the images on his site.

I don't think there is either the snip tool is new with win8 well it was in win 7 too but a little harder to find
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Fact is as I illustrated much of Texas had snow being forecast by the Euro. Again one model GFS had no snow at all in Texas just thought it was interesting and posted it backed by actual data not just a blanket statement. Never said it would happen just posted the model showing a possible event down the road.

Now if that was a map showing the US being blow torched by record heat then you would be all over it.
This was the first sentence of your post your post 377:

"WOW!!! Look at all this snow across most of Texas. Unreal."

Then your post 347:

"Euro pounds Texas with heavy snow this weekend."

I don't have a problem when you post models although, in this case, there is a copyright issue. It doesn't matter if Ryan Maue knows who you are. The mods are obligated to take down posts they know are a copyright violation. The problem is not posting models, it's adding your editorial comments. Texas is a big state, and the whole state is not going to see snow. The parts of Texas that do see snow are just going to see snow, not get "pounded". There's nothing "unreal" about the situation. Some parts of Texas do get snow in November. Ignoring the copyright issue, if you had just posted like this:

ECMWF is showing the possibility of snow in some parts of Texas over the next eight days, with most places showing three inches or less, and isolated areas showing of north Texas and the Panhandle showing six to 10 inches over eight days. About half the state shows no snow, and the snow totals the map does show are based on a 10:1 liquid equivalent ratio, which may or may not correlate with actual inches of snow accumulation. It's just something to be aware of if you live in Texas. We'll see how this plays out as we get closer.

That would have been fine. No "pounding" needed, no "WOW!!!", and no "unreal". Just describe what you you believe the map is showing. Think about how Levi does his forecasts. That should be your goal.
Quoting 208. sar2401:

This was the first sentence of your post your post 377:

"WOW!!! Look at all this snow across most of Texas. Unreal."

Then your post 347:

"Euro pounds Texas with heavy snow this weekend."

I don't have a problem when you post models although, in this case, there is a copyright issue. It doesn't matter if Ryan Maue knows who you are. The mods are obligated to take down posts they know are a copyright violation. The problem is not posting models, it's adding your editorial comments. Texas is a big state, and the whole state is not going to see snow. The parts of Texas that do see snow are just going to see snow, not get "pounded". There's nothing "unreal" about the situation. Some parts of Texas do get snow in November. Ignoring the copyright issue, if you had just posted like this:

ECMWF is showing the possibility of snow in some parts of Texas over the next eight days, with most places showing three inches or less, and isolated areas showing of north Texas and the Panhandle showing six to 10 inches over eight days. About half the state shows no snow, and the snow totals the map does show are based on a 10:1 liquid equivalent ratio, which may or may not correlate with actual inches of snow accumulation. It's just something to be aware of if you live in Texas. We'll see how this plays out as we get closer.

That would have been fine. No "pounding" needed, no "WOW!!!", and no "unreal". Just describe what you you believe the map is showing. Think about how Levi does his forecasts. That should be your goal.


My goal is to be me not to be like anybody else. #Leader #Not a follower #Be you!
It's funny because the ECMWF snowfall forecast today is very different from yesterday with barely any snow in Texas. Models don't know what is going to happen next week. The pattern is favorable for something to occur, but that doesn't mean t will happen.
Quoting 210. hydrus:


another coastal system if we get one in the central gulf lifting n by ne then we may have a player


7 day forecast for the Tampa area.
215. flsky
Give it up already. More important things to talk about. Sheesh

Quoting 208. sar2401:

This was the first sentence of your post your post 377:

"WOW!!! Look at all this snow across most of Texas. Unreal."

Then your post 347:

"Euro pounds Texas with heavy snow this weekend."

I don't have a problem when you post models although, in this case, there is a copyright issue. It doesn't matter if Ryan Maue knows who you are. The mods are obligated to take down posts they know are a copyright violation. The problem is not posting models, it's adding your editorial comments. Texas is a big state, and the whole state is not going to see snow. The parts of Texas that do see snow are just going to see snow, not get "pounded". There's nothing "unreal" about the situation. Some parts of Texas do get snow in November. Ignoring the copyright issue, if you had just posted like this:

ECMWF is showing the possibility of snow in some parts of Texas over the next eight days, with most places showing three inches or less, and isolated areas showing of north Texas and the Panhandle showing six to 10 inches over eight days. About half the state shows no snow, and the snow totals the map does show are based on a 10:1 liquid equivalent ratio, which may or may not correlate with actual inches of snow accumulation. It's just something to be aware of if you live in Texas. We'll see how this plays out as we get closer.

That would have been fine. No "pounding" needed, no "WOW!!!", and no "unreal". Just describe what you you believe the map is showing. Think about how Levi does his forecasts. That should be your goal.
windier now and cool e.cen fl.


NDBS - Station 4100, just off the coast of Cape Canaveral

Wind Direction (WDIR):

NW ( 320 deg true )

Wind Speed (WSPD):
29.1 kts

Wind Gust (GST):
35.0 kts

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):
29.84 in

Air Temperature (ATMP):
69.6 °F

Water Temperature (WTMP):
76.8 °F

Dew Point (DEWP):
60.1 °F

Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):
31.1 kts

Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):
33.0 kts
Thank you...
Quoting 206. Sfloridacat5:

TWC said winds gusting to 68 mph across the northern Plains.
Catch phrases used within a minute of watching.
"Polar Arctic Intrusion"
"Polar Outbreak"
"Arctic Blast"
"Bitter Blast"

Yep..Those have been around a long time..When I was growing up, it was the Siberian express..
221. eddye

Tuesday 11/18 10%

Sunny. High 66F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.




Tuesday Night 11/18 10%

Clear. Low 46F. Winds light and variable.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


My goal is to be me not to be like anybody else. #Leader #Not a follower #Be you!
OK, that was a waste of time. Have fun being you. I just won't be seeing you now.
Quoting 222. sar2401:

OK, that was a waste of time. Have fun being you. I just won't be seeing you now.


Thank you!

some epic soaking rains along and off the fla east coast

Quoting 226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

some epic soaking rains along and off the fla east coast




And just on the other side of the coast it has been a beautiful day.
Quoting 225. ncstorm:

Just one day I would love to come to this blog and see the blog conversation not being hijacked about Scott or his forecasts...

just one day...










Boy do they get mad when I call it but if I didn't it still be the same. Can't win for losing.

Anyways Euro now has a foot plus from Oklahoma over to Tennessee now early next week. Earlier this was down into Texas and yes much of Texas so it will be interesting to see who gets "pounded" next week by snow. I guess this could be my version of the "polar vortex" widely used by many on here.
Buoy graph
Quoting 226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

some epic soaking rains along and off the fla east coast




Glad we're missing that here on the west coast. Those storms that just park there and dump huge amounts of rain always seem to affect the same part of Florida lately. Always on the east coast, and usually near Daytona Beach.
Quoting 212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

another coastal system if we get one in the central gulf lifting n by ne then we may have a player
I believe the gulf will not produce anything tropical ( stranger things have happened ). Western Caribbean however still has a chance..







snow pictures
Quoting luvtogolf:


And just on the other side of the coast it has been a beautiful day.


Yep, the rain event on the Eastcoast has been pretty isolated in a small area of the state.

The majority of the state had a beautiful day with nothing but bright sunshine.

Quoting Drakoen:

I'm not aware of any script that will prevent someone from screenshotting the images on his site.
There's CopySafe. Link There's also Javascript that will clear the clipboard as soon as it detects a screen capture. If Weatherbell really wanted to protect their images, they'd be using CopySafe. Users should respect the copyright restrictions, of course, but people also aren't supposed to speed. :-)
Quoting 232. hydrus:

I believe the gulf will not produce anything tropical ( stranger things have happened ). Western Caribbean however still has a chance..
I did not mean tropical either just a regular old low pressure with rain and snow typical fall like storm with a line of severe following cold front with snow behind it and heavy rains along the advancing warm front you know the normal storms we use to get this time of year
Quoting 228. StormTrackerScott:



Boy do they get mad when I call it but if I didn't it still be the same. Can't win for losing.

Anyways Euro now has a foot plus from Oklahoma over to Tennessee now early next week. Earlier this was down into Texas and yes much of Texas so it will be interesting to see who gets "pounded" next week by snow. I guess this could be my version of the "polar vortex" widely used by many on here.


Unfortunate that the term "polar vortex" is again being misused by many. My most recent blog.

239. eddye

Tuesday 11/18 10%

Sunny. High 66F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.




Tuesday Night 11/18 10%

Clear. Low 46F. Winds light and variable.

cold storm tracker
Quoting 229. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Very interesting radar loop...Possible T.C.forming, and all that snow flying..
Quoting 238. 24hourprof:



Unfortunate that the term "polar vortex" is again being misused by many. My most recent blog.


yeah there taking it to far but that's the media for ya always make more of things then there really is needed
242. eddye
southflacat5 u ready for it
Quoting 237. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I did not mean tropical either just a regular old low pressure with rain and snow typical fall like storm with a line of severe following cold front with snow behind it and heavy rains along the advancing warm front you know the normal storms we use to get this time of year
Indeed...I await the 18Z GFS to to if there are any candidates.
One of those days where it's felt like six pm since noon.

Nice shot from Topsail Beach webcam


Looks like the rain stays offshore tomorrow.
Quoting 241. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yeah there taking it to far but that's the media for ya always make more of things then there really is needed


Agreed!
Quoting 245. tampabaymatt:



Looks like the rain stays offshore tomorrow.
the entire system should wind down and move off towards the east slightly ne well offshore of the mainland
Later..

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 48m 48 minutes ago
Looks like a tropical depression on radar, oh well http://models.weatherbell.com/news/current_anim_se .gif …
0 replies 2 retweets 4 favorites

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 50m 50 minutes ago
Seems HRRR 19z develops a tropical storm off the Florida coast -- case where assimilating radar data fails (?)
Quoting 244. win1gamegiantsplease:

One of those days where it's felt like six pm since noon.

Nice shot from Topsail Beach webcam



yesterday here... even made a similar comment.. started raining on our camping trip about 9pm Saturday night.. had to break camp in the rain.. managed a window here a little while ago with no sprinkles and set the tent back up to dry out..
I'll admit, this does have a subtropical look to it. Phase diagrams are all saying cold-core in nature, however (or at least the ones I checked).

NWS, Wilmington, NC

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE
AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITTING JUST EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
REGARDS TO POPS WHILE THE GFS IS STABLE WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE
CHANCE RANGE. THE MET NUMBERS ARE WELL INTO THE CATEGORICAL REALM.
I HAVE JOGGED THE NUMBERS UP SOMEWHAT MAINLY STARTING AFTER 0300
UTC. USED A BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE MET APPEARS TOO LOW
BUT IF THE HEAVIER QPF WERE TO DEVELOP...EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY
JUST DRIVE THE TEMPERATURES TO THESE VALUES.
If I didn't know better, I'd say there was a tropical storm off the east coast of FL. That Low really organized quickly. Should throw some waves my way tomorrow.

Quoting 229. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


253. DDR
Good evening
5.3 INCHES of rain over the last 36 hours at my location in Trinidad,heavy flooding in NE Trinidad,With a lot more to come here and im at 9.4 inches for November so far.
Quoting hydrus:
Yep..Those have been around a long time..When I was growing up, it was the Siberian express..
The two terms I've grown tired of are "Bombogenesis" and "Snowmageddon".

The first is derived from cyclogenesis, which is the formation of a low. Bombogenesis describes the terrestrial equivalent of RI, which happens long after a low is formed. Bombogenesis has been around for a long time as meteorological slang but it's not in the AMS glossary and should be used in any official discussion or forecasts. We already have rapid intensification, which describes bombogenesis perfectly with no need to confuse matters.

Snowmageddon is even worse, since it describes nothing except what the person saying or writing it thinks it means. We had writers describing the January snowstorm in Alabama and Georgia ans Snowmageddon. Two or three inches of snow equals Snowmageddon. I guess it does, since media was commonly using the word, but it also made people up north laugh at us even more, since their idea of a Snowmageddon is much different. I know there's no way to stop the use of either word now, but I can imagine the names that are going to made up over the next 10 years. "Snownado" and "Sharkageddon" have to be next. :-)
256. DDR
No hints of a El nino-like pattern in the south-eastern caribbean,very typical weather for the timing although its been 2-3celcius above normal.
Man wish this low had one more day, beautiful looking.

Link
Quoting 254. sar2401:

The two terms I've grown tired of are "Bombogenesis" and "Snowmageddon".

The first is derived from cyclogenesis, which is the formation of a low. Bombogenesis describes the terrestrial equivalent of RI, which happens long after a low is formed. Bombogenesis has been around for a long time as meteorological slang but it's not in the AMS glossary and should be used in any official discussion or forecasts. We already have rapid intensification, which describes bombogenesis perfectly with no need to confuse matters.

Snowmageddon is even worse, since it describes nothing except what the person saying or writing it thinks it means. We had writers describing the January snowstorm in Alabama and Georgia ans Snowmageddon. Two or three inches of snow equals Snowmageddon. I guess it does, since media was commonly using the word, but it also made people up north laugh at us even more, since their idea of a Snowmageddon is much different. I know there's no way to stop the use of either word now, but I can imagine the names that are going to made up over the next 10 years. "Snownado" and "Sharkageddon" have to be next. :-)
I truly understand..I have had to adjust and learn to take things in stride, not to let anything bug me.......and get used to new catch phrases that are said far to frequently...
It should be noted that posting special ECMWF data from anybody's paywalled website is not only in violation of that website's terms of use, but of ECMWF's own terms of use. WxBell's terms come directly from ECMWF. If you post their data, you're butting up against ECMWF policies, not just those of the company you got the image from.

As some have said, the only ECMWF data free to distribute is limited to several meteorological fields. Every free field available is plotted by myself, and by WxBell under "WMO-Essential."
Lava Flow claims first house in Hawaiian town.


Link
Another V-shaped thunderstorm, another flooding, tonight happens in Chiavari, incredible what's going on in Italy.



This is the satellite loop, thunderstorms are flourishing everywhere around Italy.

Quoting 228. StormTrackerScott:



Boy do they get mad when I call it but if I didn't it still be the same. Can't win for losing.

Anyways Euro now has a foot plus from Oklahoma over to Tennessee now early next week. Earlier this was down into Texas and yes much of Texas so it will be interesting to see who gets "pounded" next week by snow. I guess this could be my version of the "polar vortex" widely used by many on here.


"Early next week" is eight days out.
Chiavari now



This is from my favorite buoy. It goes with the buoy data already posted. It's the same buoy, that one well off Cape Canaveral. It's sending us pictures now:))

Hi Scott, seems like your forecast are very similar to JB's. Are you a subscriber to Weather Bell? Bob, the reason for the dead zones has nothing to do with climate change. If your looking for the real cause of the fish kills, lack of shrimp, lobster and algae blooms, it is more likely due to pollution and overfishing. That low off the North central coast of Florida is looking more tropical by the hour, hopefully it becomes this seasons next tropical storm.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Maybe next TWO, need more persistence.

Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Scott, seems like your forecast are very similar to JB's. Are you a subscriber to Weather Bell? Bob, the reason for the dead zones has nothing to do with climate change. If your looking for the real cause of the fish kills, lack of shrimp, lobster and algae blooms, it is more likely due to pollution and overfishing. That low off the North central coast of Florida is looking more tropical by the hour, hopefully it becomes this seasons next tropical storm.
2 out of 3 , not bad.
Quoting 209. StormTrackerScott:



My goal is to be me not to be like anybody else. #Leader #Not a follower #Be you!
blind leading blind into ditch ... No use being a leader if you don't know where u r going...
Just saying...

Had a goodly downpour this morning followed by an appreciated and appreciable drop in temps... Seems chances for a genuinely tropical entity this month are dwindling apace ...



more snow to come!
Quoting 250. CybrTeddy:

I'll admit, this does have a subtropical look to it. Phase diagrams are all saying cold-core in nature, however (or at least the ones I checked).





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST MON NOV 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little less
organized in association with an area of low pressure located about
240 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. While this system could still become a tropical
depression tonight, upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by early Tuesday.
Regardless of development, this system could bring rain and gusty
winds to portions of the west coast of mainland Mexico through
Tuesday while it moves northeastward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
DOWN TO 40%
OK, let me get this straight: There's a cold core low off the coast of Florida that looks like a subtropical cyclone?
and I just took all the EWSFC's costal forecasters off duty until June 1st 2015...Damm...
Probably a dust storm [haboob] headed into New Mexico. Upper right of this image.

Quoting 225. ncstorm:

Just one day I would love to come to this blog and see the blog conversation not being hijacked about Scott or his forecasts...

just one day...










Amen.
Quoting 279. 62901IL:

OK, let me get this straight: There's a cold core low off the coast of Florida that looks like a subtropical cyclone?
and I just took all the EWSFC's costal forecasters off duty until June 1st 2015...Damm...

Nothing to worry about. It's frontal, the subtropical jet is racing atop the system, and it's moving away from the United States.
Quoting 260. Levi32:

It should be noted that posting special ECMWF data from anybody's paywalled website is not only in violation of that website's terms of use, but of ECMWF's own terms of use. WxBell's terms come directly from ECMWF. If you post their data, you're butting up against ECMWF policies, not just those of the company you got the image from.

As some have said, the only ECMWF data free to distribute is limited to several meteorological fields. Every free field available is plotted by myself, and by WxBell under "WMO-Essential."
I despise the new closed science-for-profit model, usually funded by taxpayers somewhere, when it has always been open science and the free exchange of knowledge that has driven scientific progress forward. With the internet it even makes more sense since there are no more tree-killing expenses, and that is why the big publishing houses and research organizations are fighting even harder to maintain an unjust system. Now it seems that the scientific literature and even knowledge of weather which is obviously so important for public safety is just another commodity reserved for elites that have special access or the $$$. It is driving us into a new dark age. I am an independent researcher that keeps hitting the paywall so I know what I am talking about. Even some of my older publications that I no longer have electronic access to are still getting sold for between $20-$50 each, of course I never see a penny since when you publish for Springer or SPIE or any of the other journals and conferences you have to sign over your rights and usually have to even pay page charges for the "privilege" to publish your own hard work. I am working to get all my papers onto free-access sites like ReseachGate and Academia.edu, and I will never cite anyone else's research unless they do the same.

You won't ever see me being a proud defender of closed science-for-profit, and that includes the ECMWF that is funded with taxes on the people of the Eurozone.

If I really have a money-making idea I would rather work with the patent system which means trade secrecy for limited exclusive rights and publish your results publicly. Any real scientist familiar with science philosophy and history should know better than to hide behind a paywall.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nothing to worry about. It's frontal, the subtropical jet is racing atop the top of the system, and it's moving away from the United States.

oh good. *breathes sigh of releif*
I will say, tho, it reminds me of the tropical system off Florida a few years ago.
*does the history won't repeat itself dance*
YAY!!!!! I REACHED 1800 COMMENTS!!!!!!!!
*stops the history won't repeat itself dance, and begins singing this.
Quoting 283. guygee:

I despise the new closed science-for-profit model, usually funded by taxpayers somewhere, when it has always been open science and the free exchange of knowledge that has driven scientific progress forward. With the internet it even makes more sense since there are no more tree-killing expenses, and that is why the big publishing houses and research organizations are fighting even harder to maintain an unjust system. Now it seems that the scientific literature and even knowledge of weather which is obviously so important for public safety is just another commodity reserved for elites that have special access or the $$$. It is driving us into a new dark age. I am an independent researcher that keeps hitting the paywall so I know what I am talking about. Even some of my older publications that I no longer have electronic access to are still getting sold for between $20-$50 each, of course I never see a penny since when you publish for Springer or SPIE or any of the other journals and conferences you have to sign over your rights and usually have to even pay page charges for the "privilege" to publish your own hard work. I am working to get all my papers onto free-access sites like ReseachGate and Academia.edu, and I will never cite anyone else's research unless they do the same.

You won't ever see me being a proud defender of closed science-for-profit, and that includes the ECMWF that is funded with taxes on the people of the Eurozone.

If I really have a money-making idea I would rather work with the patent system which means trade secrecy for limited exclusive rights and publish your results publicly. Any real scientist familiar with science philosophy and history should know better than to hide behind a paywall.


Well, I understand your frustration, and I don't like paywalled scientific literature myself, but ECMWF is a little different. Their taxpayers may fund the program, but England has the best global model in the world, and by a sizable margin. The decision to monetize the model was a stroke of brilliance, because who wouldn't want that data? People pay for it. And think about it, the only organizations that truly need ECMWF data are the ones who can afford it: government agencies, research universities, and growing private businesses.

This is also why companies charge for model maps, even if it's not restricted ECMWF data. The reason Ryan Maue can get away with charging $20 a month is because he has dozens of servers that nobody else has - able to plot every model without a hiccup, and he has a unique touch when it comes to colorbars. People obviously pay for that. That's just the beauty of entrepreneurship.
All this talk about winter... Here I am in Alaska and its 49F and there is no snow here... (yes, other areas of the state have a lot of snow, just not Anchorage).

It's about 30F warmer than normal... and untold how many weeks abnormal to be snow free. Not that I am complaining. Washi can have all the snow she wants and more.
Quoting 288. Dakster:

All this talk about winter... Here I am in Alaska and its 49F and there is no snow here... (yes, other areas of the state have a lot of snow, just not Anchorage).

It's about 30F warmer than normal... and untold how many weeks abnormal to be snow free. Not that I am complaining. Washi can have all the snow she wants and more.
Did you get that e-mail I sent?.I'm not going to predict when our first measurable snow will occur...I'll just let the winter play out.This certainly looks like no 011-012 repeat.


nice storm off the east coast!! its not tropical at all!!


u see the low off the southeast coast here!
Quoting 290. hurricanes2018:

i am so happy for you in one week i get 1,800 comments everyweek!


Yeah, and we're all very happy about that.......
Quoting 289. washingtonian115:

Did you get that e-mail I sent?.I'm not going to predict when our first measurable snow will occur...I'll just let the winter play out.This certainly looks like no 011-012 repeat.


You think 2011-12 was bad, how about 1972-73? It's the least snowiest winter on record for Washington DC (.1 inch of snow), 2nd lowest seasonal snow for Baltimore, MD, (1.2 inches of snow), & New York City (2.8 inches) (just to name a few). While areas of the southeastern US (especially those affected by the historic Feb 1973 snowstorm) experienced some of their snowiest winters on record w/ exponentially higher seasonal snowfall totals: Wilmington, NC (2nd snowiest since 1950, 14.4 inches of snow) Columbia, SC (Snowiest since 1950, 18.2 inches), Augusta, GA (Snowiest since 1950, 14.4 inches), Warner Robbins (Macon, GA) (Snowiest since 1950, 16.5 inches)...
November 10,1975

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
Superior, they said, never gives up her dead
When the gales of November come early


Remember folks the Polar vortex will not cause this

And look like this from space
Wow what a sharp temperature contrast from today to tonight in Abilene, Texas.

High today was 84 F
Low tonight is forecasted to be 36 F

That is nearly a drop of 50 degrees! From t-shirts, flip flops, and bikinis to turtle necks, uggs, and scarfs. Wow!

Link




image credit; Oklahoma mesonet
Quoting Stefaneik:
Another V-shaped thunderstorm, another flooding, tonight happens in Chiavari, incredible what's going on in Italy.



This is the satellite loop, thunderstorms are flourishing everywhere around Italy.

Now that's a "pounding"!

image credit: Oklahoma mesonet
Quoting 297. washingtonian115:

Remember folks the Polar vortex will not cause this

And look like this from space

This is true the Polar Vortex is always moving around the poles, it's a semipermanent feature like the Bermuda High. It's only the piece of energy from it that breaks off and makes its way across the CONUS. Of course the media will hype it up to drive up ratings and make $$$. Isn't that the Capitalistic approach we have so often become familiar with in America and ties into the competitive consumerism approach just like retailers do during Black Friday? And it works doesn't it?

Quoting 287. Levi32:



Well, I understand your frustration, and I don't like paywalled scientific literature myself, but ECMWF is a little different. Their taxpayers may fund the program, but England has the best global model in the world, and by a sizable margin. The decision to monetize the model was a stroke of brilliance, because who wouldn't want that data? People pay for it. And think about it, the only organizations that truly need ECMWF data are the ones who can afford it: government agencies, research universities, and growing private businesses.

This is also why companies charge for model maps, even if it's not restricted ECMWF data. The reason Ryan Maue can get away with charging $20 a month is because he has dozens of servers that nobody else has - able to plot every model without a hiccup, and he has a unique touch when it comes to colorbars. People obviously pay for that. That's just the beauty of entrepreneurship.
I wouldn't call having arguably the best model and monetizing it to be a "stroke of brilliance", but to each his own.
Quoting 287. Levi32:



Well, I understand your frustration, and I don't like paywalled scientific literature myself, but ECMWF is a little different. Their taxpayers may fund the program, but England has the best global model in the world, and by a sizable margin. The decision to monetize the model was a stroke of brilliance, because who wouldn't want that data? People pay for it. And think about it, the only organizations that truly need ECMWF data are the ones who can afford it: government agencies, research universities, and growing private businesses.

This is also why companies charge for model maps, even if it's not restricted ECMWF data. The reason Ryan Maue can get away with charging $20 a month is because he has dozens of servers that nobody else has - able to plot every model without a hiccup, and he has a unique touch when it comes to colorbars. People obviously pay for that. That's just the beauty of entrepreneurship.
Like most people on the wunderground blogs I am glad that you come here and share your knowledge, Levi, so I am not trying to pick on you, and I am not specialized in the field of meteorology or climatology, but I do know a few things about general physics modeling, scientific visualization and high-performance computing, just in different fields. You say that "who wouldn't want that data?" but then say "the only organizations that truly need ECMWF data are the ones who can afford it: government agencies, research universities, and growing private businesses". But you don't know who else might be able to take that data and with a young brilliant mind be inspired into a new realm of creativity. I know that I've seen a lot of people on this blog wishing for more ECMWF data, and maybe one of those potential future geniuses are lurking here waiting for the inspiration and knowledge, but it is only harder when they do not have access. Something must have inspired you, so I just want you to consider that denying knowledge to the next generation of future scientists makes it harder and just maybe drives someone away into another endeavor.

I agree that there is something of an art to visualization and color mapping, and if someone is creating a special product in a small business they certainly should defend their copyright. It is when large government organizations resort to restricting knowledge that I have a problem. I think you might already have some students here looking forward to your posts, so consider them too, they are just as deserving as some giant media company, government agency, or some university where the administrators make twice as much as the best professors by raising tuition on poor students going broke taking out loans.

I probably shouldn't bring up politics, but don't forget former U.S. Senator Santorum's proposed weather bill in 2005 and how it got shot down here on this blog and by general public outrage for trying to take the taxpayers for a ride. At least in the USA we would not put up with it. Personally, I hope that never changes.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Remember folks the Polar vortex will not cause this

And look like this from space

that's a hurricane. post a real one.
Quoting 296. Patrap:

November 10,1975

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
Of the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
Superior, they said, never gives up her dead
When the gales of November come early



I remember seeing the interviews with the families..Very sad..Passed near that wreck a few times. Crew was always solemn the times we were near it.

Quoting 304. guygee:

Like most people on the wunderground blogs I am glad that you come here and share your knowledge, Levi, so I am not trying to pick on you, and I am not specialized in the field of meteorology or climatology, but I do know a few things about general physics modeling, scientific visualization and high-performance computing, just in different fields. You say that "who wouldn't want that data?" but then say "the only organizations that truly need ECMWF data are the ones who can afford it: government agencies, research universities, and growing private businesses". But you don't know who else might be able to take that data and with a young brilliant mind be inspired into a new realm of creativity. I know that I've seen a lot of people on this blog wishing for more ECMWF data, and maybe one of those potential future geniuses are lurking here waiting for the inspiration and knowledge, but it is only harder when they do not have access. Something must have inspired you, so I just want you to consider that denying knowledge to the next generation of future scientists makes it harder and just maybe drives someone away into another endeavor.

I agree that there is something of an art to visualization and color mapping, and if someone is creating a special product in a small business they certainly should defend their copyright. It is when large government organizations resort to restricting knowledge that I have a problem. I think you might already have some students here looking forward to your posts, so consider them too, they are just a deserving as some giant media company, government agency, or some university where the administrators make twice as much as the best professors by raising tuition on poor students going broke taking out loans.

I probably shouldn't bring up politics, but don't forget former U.S. Senator Santorum's proposed weather bill in 2005 and how it got shot down here on this blog and by general public outrage for trying to take the taxpayers for a ride. At least in the USA we would not put up with it. Personally, I hope that never changes.
There is something to that but in weather there are things that are limited and generally understood. Cold should be blue and really cold can easily progress into purple. Warm and hot are oranges and reds. Most precip schemes uses a variation of blue and green. See where I am going with this? I think some data visualizers are acting as though they have a patent on the colors and no one else is allowed to use them.
Quoting 297. washingtonian115:

Remember folks the Polar vortex will not cause this

And look like this from space



Look, if I get to misuse terms like polar vortex, I sure as heck get to misrepresent them in images as well. Stop infringing on my freedom, Wash.
Quoting 308. Naga5000:



Look, if I get to misuse terms like polar vortex, I sure as heck get to misrepresent them in images as well. Stop infringing on my freedom, Wash.
Lol.I remember back in January when the polar vortex was trending on twitter someone posted the image of the storm from the Day after tomorrow with #polarvortex2014.CWG made a post in describing what it is.I posted it a few pages back.
2ft of snow in Nov LOLZ, too early ya think...
Quoting 297. washingtonian115:

Remember folks the Polar vortex will not cause this

And look like this from space



Polar vortex gets as misused as derecho, especially when TWC would consider anything with a backward C signature on the radar as such like they did this year. Besides, this cooldown has more to do with ex-nuri, not that i need to tell you that. ;)
Let's get through Thanksgiving before we believe snow models.
Quoting 309. washingtonian115:

Lol.I remember back in January when the polar vortex was trending on twitter someone posted the image of the storm from the Day after tomorrow with #polarvortex2014.CWG made a post in describing what it is.I posted it a few pages back.



#polarvortex2014

Quoting 295. Webberweather53:



You think 2011-12 was bad, how about 1972-73? It's the least snowiest winter on record for Washington DC (.1 inch of snow), 2nd lowest seasonal snow for Baltimore, MD, (1.2 inches of snow), & New York City (2.8 inches) (just to name a few). While areas of the southeastern US (especially those affected by the historic Feb 1973 snowstorm) experienced some of their snowiest winters on record w/ exponentially higher seasonal snowfall totals: Wilmington, NC (2nd snowiest since 1950, 14.4 inches of snow) Columbia, SC (Snowiest since 1950, 18.2 inches), Augusta, GA (Snowiest since 1950, 14.4 inches), Warner Robbins (Macon, GA) (Snowiest since 1950, 16.5 inches)...
I was not over here in the states at the time to witness the snowless winter of 1972-1973.We were stationed with my dad over in Germany and I missed the really awesome one of 1976-1977 as we were once again not in the country.The winters in between I have little memory of.I do remember some winters of the 80's.Especially the cold and snowy ones.
Quoting 280. Hurricane1216:

Probably a dust storm [haboob] headed into New Mexico. Upper right of this image.




There was some dust being kicked up by the front in southeast colorado earlier today.
New idea for a Syfy movie: Ebola pola vortex from space (and yes, the typo is intentional).
Quoting 301. Barefootontherocks:


image credit: Oklahoma mesonet
gonna get a little cold bf nothing to fear it happens every year
Quoting 303. Drakoen:


I wouldn't call having arguably the best model and monetizing it to be a "stroke of brilliance", but to each his own.



I can't think of any detriment to the quality of weather forecasts or public wellbeing by charging money for the ECMWF (don't forget essential forecast fields are still free). By "brilliance," I mean financially on their end - a savvy business decision as an agency.

Quoting 318. Levi32:



I can't think of any detriment to the quality of weather forecasts or public wellbeing by charging money for the ECMWF (don't forget essential forecast fields are still free). By "brilliance," I mean financially on their end. A savvy business decision as an agency.

And I didn't claim that they were.
Quoting 303. Drakoen:


I wouldn't call having arguably the best model and monetizing it to be a "stroke of brilliance", but to each his own.



"If I were Atlas, I wouldn't be shrugged", I think He meant.

: P
Quoting 307. Drakoen:


There is something to that but in weather there are things that are limited and generally understood. Cold should be blue and really cold can easily progress into purple. Warm and hot are oranges and reds. Most precip schemes uses a variation of blue and green. See where I am going with this? I think some data visualizers are acting as though they have a patent on the colors and no one else is allowed to use them.

Agreed Drak, no one can patent a color mapping. Here is an example that I really like, the water vapor loop from National Science Foundation NCAR RAP real-time weather. Like you say, it has the deep moisture green and blue, and red is dry, no surprise there either, but the middle it tuned really well so you can see the triple dry slot eating into the ECFL low, and the jet stream rippling over the Rocky Mtns. and drying on the descent, so I think they did a great job tuning the middle colors and the flip from purple to whitish, they have a good idea of the statistics of the field and human perception to get such a good result. As a really lame map I am sorry to nominate wunderground's very own sea surface anomaly map, blue is cold and red is warm but it is scaled linearly between plus and minus 5C which too many standard deviations out so it looks really washed out and you can hardly see any detail, considering the definition of El Nino and La Nina it is absurd. If someone writes some great code and processes data in real-time they can make beautiful maps like NCAR RAP WV, or a really silly one like wunderground's SSA map. Either way they deserve the credit (or blame).
Quoting 318. Levi32:


I can't think of any detriment to the quality of weather forecasts or public wellbeing by charging money for the ECMWF (don't forget essential forecast fields are still free). By "brilliance," I mean financially on their end - a savvy business decision as an agency.


Drakoen was posting the Euro snowfall maps as well back in January and he was calling me out. Heck I didn't even know and he said it was a joke. I really had no clue as everyone that uses weatherbell post their images of the Euro on here. So my question is when did this become such an issue?

Quoting 323. StormTrackerScott:



Drakoen was posting the Euro snowfall maps as well back in January and he was calling me out. Heck I didn't even know and he said it was a joke. I really had no clue as everyone that uses weatherbell post their images of the Euro on here. So my question is when did this become such an issue?

That's because I was going 70 in a 65. The road was clear and no cops in sight.
Quoting 323. StormTrackerScott:



Drakoen was posting the Euro snowfall maps as well back in January and he was calling me out. Heck I didn't even know and he said it was a joke. I really had no clue as everyone that uses weatherbell post their images of the Euro on here. So my question is when did this become such an issue?
happen last winter in feb I think cant remember for sure someone posted a snow map on twit and it went viral and cause a lot of concern and confusion when it showed a 3 feet of snow event for ny area last winter nws even piped in and told everyone that those were just models and not to be taken serious

if I remember right iam sure someone can confirm like ta or dak someone who follows the twit channel
Euro is showing severe weather with a potential for tornadoes across Alabama, Georgia, & FL on the 12Z run at 240hrs.Euro also shows a hyper active southern jet on its ensembles with system after system moving across the Deep South. Really need to watch these trends on the Euro as things look to get very active across the South next week.

Euro ensembles have gone wild across the South. Heavy snow om oklahoma to Tennesse to severe weather further south and its not just one storm the ensembles are showing its many with only 2 days or so apart between each storm. Crazy!
Quoting 324. Drakoen:


That's because I was going 70 in a 65. The road was clear and no cops in sight.


I just was confused about why I was hammered about posting a snowfall map from the Euro. You thought I was joking but no I really didn't know that was a problem and I'm sorry for posting that.
Quoting 304. guygee:

Like most people on the wunderground blogs I am glad that you come here and share your knowledge, Levi, so I am not trying to pick on you, and I am not specialized in the field of meteorology or climatology, but I do know a few things about general physics modeling, scientific visualization and high-performance computing, just in different fields. You say that "who wouldn't want that data?" but then say "the only organizations that truly need ECMWF data are the ones who can afford it: government agencies, research universities, and growing private businesses". But you don't know who else might be able to take that data and with a young brilliant mind be inspired into a new realm of creativity. I know that I've seen a lot of people on this blog wishing for more ECMWF data, and maybe one of those potential future geniuses are lurking here waiting for the inspiration and knowledge, but it is only harder when they do not have access. Something must have inspired you, so I just want you to consider that denying knowledge to the next generation of future scientists makes it harder and just maybe drives someone away into another endeavor.

I agree that there is something of an art to visualization and color mapping, and if someone is creating a special product in a small business they certainly should defend their copyright. It is when large government organizations resort to restricting knowledge that I have a problem. I think you might already have some students here looking forward to your posts, so consider them too, they are just a deserving as some giant media company, government agency, or some university where the administrators make twice as much as the best professors by raising tuition on poor students going broke taking out loans.

I probably shouldn't bring up politics, but don't forget former U.S. Senator Santorum's proposed weather bill in 2005 and how it got shot down here on this blog and by general public outrage for trying to take the taxpayers for a ride. At least in the USA we would not put up with it. Personally, I hope that never changes.


I can see where you're coming from. I want access to the full ECMWF data suite more than anyone here. I obviously do a lot of plotting. However, as annoying as being denied that access is to me, I can find no reason to condemn ECMWF for it. The quality of weather forecasts remains unchanged, and nobody on Earth is less safe because of it. There is a difference between "want" and "need." What we need is for the NWS and forecast/consulting companies to have the data necessary to make accurate forecasts, and they do have it. Do we need the public to have it? No, we don't. Do we want it? Well of course we do!

As far as sparking creativity in young minds, yes it was free data that allowed me to pioneer my own website, but it doesn't have to be ECMWF data when there are 3 global models provided at no charge here in North America. They can't be monetized because far fewer would pay for second-best and third-best forecasts. There would also be public outrage from our community, including from me. ECMWF is in a unique position of being able to profit from being the best, and I believe that is their privilege.

Thanks for your opinion. We always need strong voices for open science and open data. I just think there is room for a handful of exceptions when they are earned and do not negatively impact society.
The UKMET is supposedly a good model (better than the GFS?) but I don't see anyone paying for it. I genuinely wonder why.
Quoting 317. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

gonna get a little cold bf nothing to fear it happens every year
I'm ready, baby! I don't like the cold but I am prepared. N winds gonna make it brrrish even tomorrow when central OK will still be in the 40s temp-wise.
This is the dream storm track for us southerns.


Euro must be picking up on this SOI Crash lately as it has caused Nino 3.4 to rise close to moderate El-Nino levels. Also all the latest ensembles of the CFSv2 are trending for strong El-Nino next Summer.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 10 Nov 2014



Average for last 30 days

-13.4



Average for last 90 days

-8.8



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-16.9





All the blue lines are the latest ensemble runs and notice how strong they have gotten recently. Talk about potentially putting the clamps down on the 2015 hurricane season.

Quoting 329. Drakoen:

The UKMET is supposedly a good model (better than the GFS?) but I don't see anyone paying for it. I genuinely wonder why.


I've always wondered about that too. We all know the deal with the ECMWF, but the UKMET seems to be even more secretive. It's hard to find any decent graphics on it, not even Weatherbell has anything for it. UKMET is definitely better than the old GFS, not sure how it or any of the other models will stack up against the new GFS.

Good discussion tonight on the pros and cons of ECMWF charging for their data; I get both sides but in the end I don't really have a problem with them charging for it. They have every right to. Those who really need it have access, and those who want it otherwise (like myself) can get it for a price through sites like Weatherbell.
334. vis0
(UPDATED CORRECT VID ~40 mins later, made error in posting wrong VID)
CREDIT:(LEFT) NOAA/NWS presented via erau.edu, (RIGHT) NOAA/NWS presented via Univ. of Washington
SUBJECT:: Observing genesis of a storm off the NE Florida coast.
DATE:: On Animation (NOT SYNCD, refer to each animation panel for specific times)or visit unlisted VID for the full dimensions of 1175x460
Going to read this blog to see if Gorthar registered it as a "blob" or "brrr blob", the latter i think is equivalent to a not quit sub tropical blob (sub Blob) more like a Nor-Easter.
Quoting 304. guygee:

Like most people on the wunderground blogs I am glad that you come here and share your knowledge, Levi, so I am not trying to pick on you, and I am not specialized in the field of meteorology or climatology, but I do know a few things about general physics modeling, scientific visualization and high-performance computing, just in different fields. You say that "who wouldn't want that data?" but then say "the only organizations that truly need ECMWF data are the ones who can afford it: government agencies, research universities, and growing private businesses". But you don't know who else might be able to take that data and with a young brilliant mind be inspired into a new realm of creativity. I know that I've seen a lot of people on this blog wishing for more ECMWF data, and maybe one of those potential future geniuses are lurking here waiting for the inspiration and knowledge, but it is only harder when they do not have access. Something must have inspired you, so I just want you to consider that denying knowledge to the next generation of future scientists makes it harder and just maybe drives someone away into another endeavor.

I agree that there is something of an art to visualization and color mapping, and if someone is creating a special product in a small business they certainly should defend their copyright. It is when large government organizations resort to restricting knowledge that I have a problem. I think you might already have some students here looking forward to your posts, so consider them too, they are just a deserving as some giant media company, government agency, or some university where the administrators make twice as much as the best professors by raising tuition on poor students going broke taking out loans.

I probably shouldn't bring up politics, but don't forget former U.S. Senator Santorum's proposed weather bill in 2005 and how it got shot down here on this blog and by general public outrage for trying to take the taxpayers for a ride. At least in the USA we would not put up with it. Personally, I hope that never changes.


Completely agree, and this largely why I absolutely love going to sites like NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory to come up w/ seasonal, daily, monthly, etc. composites with a plethora of variables, as I get to "see" things that likely wouldn't be possible otherwise. For example, in regards to some of my own personal research regarding CCKWs, VP, and NC winter storms, I took placed dates in a 3 day running window w/ 200mb vector winds anomalies last winter and ran it through time to see the evolution of the upper level features in & around periods where winter weather occurred, and I was taken away by the twin anomalous jet streaks in the western hemisphere and the meridional vector anomalies later in the period connecting the two...



Background, low frequency flow obviously can affect how CCKWs project onto the mid-latitudes and I postulate a potential falsification in that perhaps the intraseasonal enhancement via CCKWs of an already extensive subtropical jet may viable reasoning why this connection between 30-60E velocity potential anomalies and NC winter storms seems so solid, but any conclusions need to be verified through more observations & winter storms in general, and I'm currently perusing through Dr. Ventrice's VP 5S-5N Hovmoller archive going back to 1949 constructed using NCEP reanalysis, and it will be interesting to see what I find. Nonetheless, this is intriguing given last winter's performance...
Link
336. vis0

Quoting 313. Naga5000:




#polarvortex2014


In my book this is a Little Debbie™ HONEY Swirl after its heated in the mini oven...mmmm...ok back to more serious things ...engines... i mean weather
Quoting 329. Drakoen:

The UKMET is supposedly a good model (better than the GFS?) but I don't see anyone paying for it. I genuinely wonder why.



It sounds like they do sell it. The UKMET page says that "the Met Office Data Wholesaling Manager is also the UK licensing Agent for ECMWF." England owns both models, which are #1 and #2 in anomaly correlation skill in the world, respectively.

Why don't many people pay for the UKMET? I suspect it is as simple as the fact that it is second-best, and we already have the North American models to consult for alternative forecast solutions.
Quoting 330. Barefootontherocks:

I'm ready, baby! I don't like the cold but I am prepared. N winds gonna make it brrrish even tomorrow when central OK will still be in the 40s.

looks like the feel will be around the -5c region with the - 20c and -30c not to far away


After today's rain most areas here in E C FL have seen 50" to 60" of rain so far this year and I bet we can add another 5" to 10" os rain before the year is over with this active southern jet in place now.
Quoting 314. washingtonian115:

I was not over here in the states at the time to witness the snowless winter of 1972-1973.We were stationed with my dad over in Germany and I missed the really awesome one of 1976-1977 as we were once again not in the country.The winters in between I have little memory of.I do remember some winters of the 80's.Especially the cold and snowy ones.


Well, at least you lived through the record breaker (for Washington DC) of 2009-10, beat out the barnstormer of 1898-99 by about 1.5 inches (Blizzard of 1899 apparently produced blizzard-like conditions just outside & north of Tampa Bay and ice floes were reported floating out to the Gulf of Mexico, and temperatures at Mardi Gras were supposedly in the single digits (wow))... Your reasoning for missing some of the cold & snowy winters of the 1970s sound analogous to the times when Dr. Masters decides to go on vacation, *suddenly* the tropics decide to become active, lol...
Quoting 335. Webberweather53:


Completely agree, and this largely why I absolutely love going to sites like NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory to come up w/ seasonal, daily, monthly, etc. composites with a plethora of variables, as I get to "see" things that likely wouldn't be possible otherwise. For example, in regards to some of my own personal research regarding CCKWs, VP, and NC winter storms, I took placed dates in a 3 day running window w/ 200mb vector winds anomalies last winter and ran it through time to see the evolution of the upper level features in & around periods where winter weather occurred, and I was taken away by the twin anomalous jet streaks in the western hemisphere and the meridional vector anomalies later in the period connecting the two...



Background, low frequency flow obviously can affect how CCKWs project onto the mid-latitudes and I postulate a potential falsification in that perhaps the intraseasonal enhancement via CCKWs of an already extensive subtropical jet may viable reasoning why this connection between 30-60E velocity potential anomalies and NC winter storms seems so solid, but any conclusions need to be verified through more observations & winter storms in general, and I'm currently perusing through Dr. Ventrice's VP 5S-5N Hovmoller archive going back to 1949 constructed using NCEP reanalysis, and it will be interesting to see what I find. Nonetheless, this is intriguing given last winter's performance...
Link


Here I will tell you El-Nino "tends" to heigthen your risk for Winter weather across the mid south. La-Nina tends to lower your chance as it is typically just too warm during La-Nina Winters however their can be exceptions.

I don't need to write a long dissertation to tell you that as I tend to keep my post short and sweet and usually to the point.
Quoting 333. MAweatherboy1:


... and those who want it otherwise (like myself) can get it for a price through sites like Weatherbell.

It's here at WU for free. They have purchased in as well. We can share ECMWF data here.. Here's the ECMWF snow forecast.
Quoting 314. washingtonian115:

I was not over here in the states at the time to witness the snowless winter of 1972-1973.We were stationed with my dad over in Germany and I missed the really awesome one of 1976-1977 as we were once again not in the country.The winters in between I have little memory of.I do remember some winters of the 80's.Especially the cold and snowy ones.



BTW, almost forgot, for future reference (in case you don't already have this on hand) here's the monthly & seasonal "preliminary" snowfall data for Washington DC since 1887-88...
Link

& Baltimore, MD since 1882-83...
Link
Quoting 342. Skyepony:

It's here at WU for free. They have purchased in as well. We can share ECMWF data here.. Here's the ECMWF snow forecast.


Hi Skye what do you make of Nino 3.4 rising and the SOI crashing. Also as a result of all of this the CFSv2 latest update of its 8 latest members are now rising into Strong territory come next Spring into Summer? ESPI is down now but the models are showing increased precip across the equatorial Pacific over the coming weeks which should spike up the ESPI.

Quoting 342. Skyepony:


It's here at WU for free. They have purchased in as well. We can share ECMWF data here.. Here's the ECMWF snow forecast.

I only wish they made it more convenient to share images instead of forcing us to use WunderMap. The color scheme on the precip maps and that black background also leaves a lot to be desired for me.
Quoting 345. Drakoen:

I only wish they made it more convenient to share images instead of forcing us to use WunderMap. The color scheme on the precip maps and that black background also leaves a lot to be desired for me.


Hard to access on smart phones too.
Quoting 343. Webberweather53:




BTW, almost forgot, for future reference (in case you don't already have this on hand) here's the monthly & seasonal "preliminary" snowfall data for Washington DC since 1887-88...
Link

& Baltimore, MD since 1882-83...
Link
Thanks!.
This isn't directly on topic but some of the high school students here may find this useful:

7 countries where Americans can study at universities, in English, for free (or almost free)
Quoting 346. StormTrackerScott:



Hard to access on smart phones too.

The entire website is almost impossible to access on my iPhone, and others have reported the same issue. Definitely a bad rollout. Oh well.
Quoting 341. StormTrackerScott:



Here I will tell you El-Nino "tends" to heigthen your risk for Winter weather across the mid south. La-Nino lowers your chance as it is typically just too warm during La-Nina Winters however their can be exceptions.

I don't need to write a long dissertation to tell you that I tend to keep my post short and sweet and usually to the point.


My posts when presenting my personal thoughts on certain phenomena are long for several reasons, most important of which being because I actually want to readily pass along my knowledge and research to other bloggers and derive some of their opinions, insight, and criticism that are only beneficial for my advancement in meteorology in the long run. The entire premise for me to utilize CCKWs is because ENSO state serves as a broad brush on the overall pattern doesn't cough up precise information regarding the timing, placement, intensity etc. of winter storms in North Carolina. (& this is to be expected of a seasonal indicator). In this instance, using intraseasonal Eq. wave variability, I am actually trying to make some headway regarding the timing of these storms, and I can already tell before delving too much into the issue the correlation between 30-60E 5s-5n VP anoms is far from perfect like last year (Jan 29-30 2010 winter storm for ex did not have -VP in & around 30-60E, yet this wasn't true with the 5 subsequent events that winter in NC). It is through studying each individual case and taking into account various conditions on a multitude of timescales that I can arrive at more confident conclusions and gain a more appreciable depth of understanding on some of the intricate details that ultimately affect the final outcome of winter storms in NC...
Quoting 349. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The entire website is almost impossible to access on my iPhone, and others have reported the same issue. Definitely a bad rollout. Oh well.


It's impossible to access anything other than the radars. Bands a make her dance, bands a make her dance. Sorry got carried away for a minute.
20 miles east of Canaveral close to tropical storm force gusts.


Quoting 350. Webberweather53:


My posts when presenting my personal thoughts on certain phenomena are long for several reasons, most important of which being because I actually want to readily pass along my knowledge and research to other bloggers and derive some of their opinions, insight, and criticism that are only beneficial for my advancement in meteorology in the long run. The entire premise for me to utilize CCKWs is because ENSO state serves as a broad brush on the overall pattern doesn't cough up precise information regarding the timing, placement, intensity etc. of winter storms in North Carolina. (& this is to be expected of a seasonal indicator). In this instance, using intraseasonal Eq. wave variability, I am actually trying to make some headway regarding the timing of these storms, and I can already tell before delving too much into the issue the correlation between 30-60E 5s-5n VP anoms is far from perfect like last year (Jan 29-30 2010 winter storm for ex did not have -VP in & around 30-60E, yet this wasn't true with the 5 subsequent events that winter in NC). It is through studying each individual case and taking into account various conditions on a multitude of timescales that I can arrive at more confident conclusions and gain a more appreciable depth of understanding on some of the intricate details that ultimately affect the final outcome of winter storms in NC...


You got more patience then I do with that stuff. Usually I'm so busy at work that I have no choice but to keep it short and sweet and in my case the Wolf Pack (Not NC State by the way) comes out for lunch. I'm a FSU guy.
Quoting 268. NativeSun:

That low off the North central coast of Florida is looking more tropical by the hour, hopefully it becomes this seasons next tropical storm.

Last*
;)
It is a good looking non-tropical low, and I do see some slight potential for it to become a sub-tropical or tropical system very briefly. Maybe we do get to Isaias after all...
Scott can post rainfall forecasts as big as he wants and webber's comments can be as long as he wants.
Quoting 352. Abacosurf:

20 miles east of Canaveral close to tropical storm force gusts.





latest wv still image

Quoting 356. VAbeachhurricanes:



And Brian can be(act) as dumb as he wants.
I think u missed the word act

sorry B just foolin its all good
Boy this going to be a fun GFS run. GFS is now going with the Euro idea of a very active southern jet mixing in with an Arctic airmass. Not only will people across the mid south have to worry about snow but folks further south near the Gulf Coast will have to worry about severe weather. Tis the season.

Quoting 335. Webberweather53:



Completely agree, and this largely why I absolutely love going to sites like NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory to come up w/ seasonal, daily, monthly, etc. composites with a plethora of variables, as I get to "see" things that likely wouldn't be possible otherwise. For example, in regards to some of my own personal research regarding CCKWs, VP, and NC winter storms, I took placed dates in a 3 day running window w/ 200mb vector winds anomalies last winter and ran it through time to see the evolution of the upper level features in & around periods where winter weather occurred, and I was taken away by the twin anomalous jet streaks in the western hemisphere and the meridional vector anomalies later in the period connecting the two...



Background, low frequency flow obviously can affect how CCKWs project onto the mid-latitudes and I postulate a potential falsification in that perhaps the intraseasonal enhancement via CCKWs of an already extensive subtropical jet may viable reasoning why this connection between 30-60E velocity potential anomalies and NC winter storms seems so solid, but any conclusions need to be verified through more observations & winter storms in general, and I'm currently perusing through Dr. Ventrice's VP 5S-5N Hovmoller archive going back to 1949 constructed using NCEP reanalysis, and it will be interesting to see what I find. Nonetheless, this is intriguing given last winter's performance...
Link

Very impressive, beautiful dataset. I know very little about NC winter storms but I went looking for some cases of tropical cyclogenesis. First I checked out a personal classic. I'll never forget the first "early CV Bertha" of 1996, since as she passed my home on her way to cause such devastation in NC, the Space Coast barrier island was evacuated. The beach was deserted in the sunny subsidence since no surfers would brave the 16 second period perfect swells that rose up like snow-capped mountains and crashed onto the beach. She shows up well in the data, but it is equally interesting why some intensity forecasts fail, like 2010 Danielle and Earl both of which intensified more slowly that expected. Dr. Jeff's August 2010 blogs serve as a good historical narrative, but nothing could replace the NOAA ESRL data, it is a treasure and I am glad it was there for you. I could get lost in your research for days, it is very prominent and exciting. Ironically, I am looking not towards the skies but beneath the ground these days. It is also very exciting for me, a new frontier. Cheers and goodnight.
Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:

Boy this going to be a fun GFS run. GFS is now going with the Euro idea of a very active southern jet mixing in with an Arctic airmass. Not only will people across the mid south have to worry about snow but folks further south near the Gulf Coast will have to worry about severe weather. Tis the season.
well out to max 144 hr its nice and dry for fla
cold weather seems not to go anywhere for now and if anything will likely build in even more as we get closer towards first day of winter



It's currently 60.4 degrees here but that will change real soon:


Mon30% Precip.

Showers possible. Lows overnight in the mid 40s.

Mon Night30% Precip.

Cloudy with a few showers. Low 46F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Tuesday11/1146 | 27 °F

Tue30% Precip.

A shower or two possible early with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 46F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Tue Night0% Precip.

Clear. Low 27F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday11/1238 | 26 °F

Wed0% Precip.

Sunshine and some clouds. High 38F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Wed Night10% Precip.

Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 26F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday11/1336 | 22 °F

Thu10% Precip.

Sun and a few passing clouds. High 36F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph.

Thu Night0% Precip.

A mostly clear sky. Low 22F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday11/1438 | 25 °F

Fri0% Precip.

Sunshine. High 38F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.

Fri Night0% Precip.

Clear skies with a few passing clouds. Low around 25F. Winds light and variable.

Saturday11/1542 | 29 °F

Sat20% Precip.

Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 42F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.

Sat Night50% Precip.

Cloudy with snow showers mainly during the evening. Low 29F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50%.

Sunday11/1633 | 23 °F

Sun40% Precip.

Snow showers early. Peeks of sunshine later. High 33F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

Sun Night0% Precip.

Clear. Low 23F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday11/1737 | 22 °F

Mon0% Precip.

A mainly sunny sky. High 37F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph.

Mon Night10% Precip.

A mostly clear sky. Low 22F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday11/1836 | 23 °F

Tue0% Precip.

Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 36F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph.

Tue Night50% Precip.

Partly cloudy skies early, then some snow showers later at night. Low 23F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 50%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

Wednesday11/1936 | 26 °F

Wed40% Precip.

Mostly cloudy skies with afternoon snow showers. High 36F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.

Wed Night20% Precip.

A few clouds. Low 26F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.




Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:

Boy this going to be a fun GFS run. GFS is now going with the Euro idea of a very active southern jet mixing in with an Arctic airmass. Not only will people across the mid south have to worry about snow but folks further south near the Gulf Coast will have to worry about severe weather. Tis the season.


Good run on both the GFS and even more so on the PGFS 00z runs for an interior storm. It even gets close to being something special for NYC. We'll see if the ECMWF agrees.
Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:

Boy this going to be a fun GFS run. GFS is now going with the Euro idea of a very active southern jet mixing in with an Arctic airmass. Not only will people across the mid south have to worry about snow but folks further south near the Gulf Coast will have to worry about severe weather. Tis the season.




We'll see what the SPC says tomorrow or wednesday.
Parallel GFS total snowfall through next week Tuesday. If this were to occur the pattern could allow snow to remain on the ground through Thanksgiving.



0844 PM SNOW PINE CITY 45.83N 92.97W
11/10/2014 M14.0 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER
Despite a lot of other other recent anti-environment developments in the recent elections, the best victory ever for environmental protection in the state of Florida is finally realized, Amendment 1 passed amazingly with 75% approval!

Link

This is a major victory, not only because of the additional protection and preservation of Florida land, but because it won't allow politicians to virtually steal from the fund for so called "emergency purposes" like they have before. At one point, the state drained 97% of conservation funds for various other purposes obviously having nothing to do with emergencies.

Any any rate, its amazing, I almost wonder if Floridians knew what Amendment 1 really was lol, but at any rate, the good news is, it passed!
The ECMWF was started in 1975 with the participation of 10 member states. The US was offered membership in the consortium at that time. They refused, since they were throwing money at our own national forecasting system, what became the GFS. There are now 18 member states since additional memberships became available. The ECMWF was started with fees and continues to be be funded by the member states fees on a sliding scale, based on GDP. As has been noted, the ECMWF makes certain data and charts freely available, and there's no copyright issues with using those.

It was never meant to be a widely disseminated modeling system. It was developed for the use of the national met organizations of the member states, not a bunch of amateurs on a blog. They cooperate with the WMO, and national met organizations like NOAA do have full access if they pay a yearly fee, currently about $52,000. This is chump change for unrestricted access to data by an agency like NOAA.

The ECMWF has set up license fees for commercial users. These fees help support the ongoing work on the program and are meant for commercial uses that want unrestricted access to data. There are two types of access. One allows access to charts only. This is the license I believe that Weatherbell and AccuWeather have. It costs about $15,000 annually. There's also a maximum charge commercial license for organizations that use the data as part of a commercial forecast company. Many TV stations, commodity forecasters, and similar organizations pay this fee, which currently runs about $174,000 a year. I don't know if WU/TWC have access to this data as maximum commercial user.

NOAA/NWS has chosen to make their data freely available to anyone, including commercial users, with no charge. Because of this business model, US taxpayers foot the entire bill for all NOAA/NWS products, even when they are being used for commercial purposes wroldwide. This leads to the yearly budget battles and funding issues. The ECMWF is acknowledged the world's leading deterministic forecast system. People are generally willing to pay for the best. More importantly, the license fees help pay the development costs for the ECMWF and gives them a revenue stream independent of their member states. I've said this before and I'll say it again. It would make a lot of sense for NOAA to join forces with the Euro consortium to come up with what would really be the best model in the world. The "Not Invented Here" syndrome has blocked this type of cooperation for decades. I don't believe we will ever have the money or government commitment to develop the GFS into a world beating number one forecasting tool - and why should we? We've spent hundreds of millions since 1975 and we're not any closer to that goal. It's time to begin a really international effort to forecast weather, combining the best parts of the GFS and ECMWF. This kind of internationally rivalry is getting us nowhere,a ant it's time to stop it.

Just my opinion, of course. You're welcome to disagree as long as you don't make threats against my family or pets. :-)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Despite a lot of other other recent anti-environment developments in the recent elections, the best victory ever for environmental protection in the state of Florida is finally realized, Amendment 1 passed amazingly with 75% approval!

Link

This is a major victory, not only because of the additional protection and preservation of Florida land, but because it won't allow politicians to virtually steal from the fund for so called "emergency purposes" like they have before. At one point, the state drained 97% of conservation funds for various other purposes obviously having nothing to do with emergencies.

Any any rate, its amazing, I almost wonder if Floridians knew what Amendment 1 really was lol, but at any rate, the good news is, it passed!
I think Floridians knew exactly what Amendment 1 meant. Get most the funding from groups that are affecting wildlife and don't ask the taxpayer to foot the entire bill. Voters are a lot mode willing to vote for an amendment like that one than another bill that proposes to good things by picking their pockets again.
Quoting Skyepony:

0844 PM SNOW PINE CITY 45.83N 92.97W
11/10/2014 M14.0 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER
Looks like Pine Center (MN) has been the winner in the snow derby so far. Most stations are reporting 4 to 8 inches with a few higher totals reported. It's like winter in northern MN only about three weeks early.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


We'll see what the SPC says tomorrow or wednesday.
'Tis also the season for battling models to come up with bust forecasts also. We'll see what really happens next week. Right now, I don't see any pattern that would lead to s typical severe weather outbreak down here.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well out to max 144 hr its nice and dry for fla
Looks like some cold air north but not penetrating too far south. Our precip anomaly is only 0.25" to 0.50". Given our normals, that should be totals as well. No signs of any significant convection, so it should be a slow, cool rain, assuming this happens. We've been headfakeded a lot this season by the models, so I'm not counting my eggs before they're laid.
Quoting Skyepony:

It's here at WU for free. They have purchased in as well. We can share ECMWF data here.. Here's the ECMWF snow forecast.
I don't see any evidence of the ECMWF at that link. I can't see any choices of what models to display except a generic check box labeled "models". What am I missing?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I think u missed the word act

sorry B just foolin its all good
Brian can (act) as dumb as some people thinks he does. He's posted a lot of valuable information here and I hope he continues. Id rather see what he posts than what some posers do, which is primarily related to cut and paste with no added value of any kind.
I can see I'm talking to myself here tonight so I'll say a pleasant early morning/ night to all those fast asleep in their beds and those early risers not yest risen. :-)
Nice pressure drop

2:20 am N ( 6 deg ) 15.3 kts
2:10 am NNE ( 16 deg ) 9.3 kts
2:00 am ESE ( 117 deg ) 7.4 kts
1:50 am ESE ( 118 deg ) 10.3 kts
1:40 am SSE ( 167 deg ) 11.5 kts
1:30 am SSE ( 167 deg ) 6.4 kts
Quoting 362. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well out to max 144 hr its nice and dry for fla


Wasn't only referring to FL.
alot of depressions do not have the vigor of our ull yesterday
Firefox just updated to v. 33.1 on my Mac. The WunderMap, which has always loaded very slowly here, now lacks the controls for enlarging and reducing the picture size, and also the keys for moving the picture. I'm reporting this also to Mozilla. BTW, I find that the Hybrid map loads much more quickly than the Terrain map; the latter doesn't even always load completely.
Quoting 383. islander101010:
alot of depressions do not have the vigor of our ull yesterday


How much rain by you yesterday? My mom was in New Smyrna Beach and she said it was like a full blown Tropical Storm yesterday with high winds at times with driving rains.
Quoting 314. washingtonian115:

I was not over here in the states at the time to witness the snowless winter of 1972-1973.We were stationed with my dad over in Germany and I missed the really awesome one of 1976-1977 as we were once again not in the country.The winters in between I have little memory of.I do remember some winters of the 80's.Especially the cold and snowy ones.

1976-77 was not notable for snow in the DC metro area. It was notable for extreme persistent cold. January did not reach 50F at all during the month and ALL precipitation was frozen.. no rain at all.
Feb 1979 produced a huge blizzard on Presidents day Monday early AM.

I was at college for both. I suspect you would have liked Feb 1979 (and Feb 1983, another huge blizzard which
I also went through in Princeton NJ, so much cloud to ground lightning I was afraid to go out and it was REALLY close, loud, and frequent)


The areas that got a lot of rain yesterday in FL are now on the dry air side of the ULL.
Quoting 375. sar2401:

I don't see any evidence of the ECMWF at that link. I can't see any choices of what models to display except a generic check box labeled "models". What am I missing?

That is linked to ECMWF snowfall forecast. To the right of the model box that is checked, click on that gear & a drop down opens up where you can choose which model (RUC, ECMWF, GFS or NAM), which version of the model you want (I think there is like 17 different types for ECMWF) & you can choose which model run, as well as opacity & such. The blue arrow that you need to click to loop the forecast is also under that gear.

I linked a version that also had the radar on. Scroll up & unclick that first.
Yikes! Now hyperbole is the news this morning as everyone is talking about a Polar Vortex when there isn't one in play.

There would likely be strong thunderstorms with this set up either Sunday or Monday.


All but 1 out of the 8 latest ensembles show strong El-Nino later next Spring into Summer. We need to watch this trend as another warm pool one simlar to the warm pool we had this past Spring is expected to build after the first of the year.



I love how S.W. Florida is the dry spot in Florida going forward 192 hours.

That's not going to help our 14.63" rainfall deficit for the year here in Fort Myers.

Those in Californa keep your heads up as I got good news for your regarding rain/snow prospects

Quoting 388. StormTrackerScott:



How much rain by you yesterday? My mom was in New Smyrna Beach and she said it was like a full blown Tropical Storm yesterday with high winds at times with driving rains.

I received a little over 4 inches yesterday a few miles north of Daytona Beach. It rained for about 12 hours nonstop
Quoting 370. sar2401:

The ECMWF was started in 1975 with the participation of 10 member states. The US was offered membership in the consortium at that time. They refused, since they were throwing money at our own national forecasting system, what became the GFS. There are now 18 member states since additional memberships became available. The ECMWF was started with fees and continues to be be funded by the member states fees on a sliding scale, based on GDP. As has been noted, the ECMWF makes certain data and charts freely available, and there's no copyright issues with using those.

It was never meant to be a widely disseminated modeling system. It was developed for the use of the national met organizations of the member states, not a bunch of amateurs on a blog. They cooperate with the WMO, and national met organizations like NOAA do have full access if they pay a yearly fee, currently about $52,000. This is chump change for unrestricted access to data by an agency like NOAA.

The ECMWF has set up license fees for commercial users. These fees help support the ongoing work on the program and are meant for commercial uses that want unrestricted access to data. There are two types of access. One allows access to charts only. This is the license I believe that Weatherbell and AccuWeather have. It costs about $15,000 annually. There's also a maximum charge commercial license for organizations that use the data as part of a commercial forecast company. Many TV stations, commodity forecasters, and similar organizations pay this fee, which currently runs about $174,000 a year. I don't know if WU/TWC have access to this data as maximum commercial user.

NOAA/NWS has chosen to make their data freely available to anyone, including commercial users, with no charge. Because of this business model, US taxpayers foot the entire bill for all NOAA/NWS products, even when they are being used for commercial purposes wroldwide. This leads to the yearly budget battles and funding issues. The ECMWF is acknowledged the world's leading deterministic forecast system. People are generally willing to pay for the best. More importantly, the license fees help pay the development costs for the ECMWF and gives them a revenue stream independent of their member states. I've said this before and I'll say it again. It would make a lot of sense for NOAA to join forces with the Euro consortium to come up with what would really be the best model in the world. The "Not Invented Here" syndrome has blocked this type of cooperation for decades. I don't believe we will ever have the money or government commitment to develop the GFS into a world beating number one forecasting tool - and why should we? We've spent hundreds of millions since 1975 and we're not any closer to that goal. It's time to begin a really international effort to forecast weather, combining the best parts of the GFS and ECMWF. This kind of internationally rivalry is getting us nowhere,a ant it's time to stop it.

Just my opinion, of course. You're welcome to disagree as long as you don't make threats against my family or pets. :-)


ECMWF by charter agreement does not do short range forecasting. THe member states maintain their own
short range forecasting systems. They can therefore concentrate on the medium range forecast problem and, more recently short term climate forecast problem, with a focus that the NWS with its much larger mission, can't. We forecast on all timescales from within the hour out to several seasons out and I believe we are the only country that maintains an hourly analysis/forecast system HRRR, used to be the RUC implemented 1998.

ECMWF provides a textbook case study of how a research institution should be managed and is one of the best managed institutions ,in any discipline, in the world. They have not tried to grow or broaden their mission and have stayed small, around 150 researchers and support scientists.
Quoting 397. Sfloridacat5:
I love how S.W. Florida is the dry spot in Florida going forward 192 hours.

That's not going to help our 14.63" rainfall deficit for the year here in Fort Myers.



Most of E C FL is now in the 50" to 60" range. With totals near 60" so far this year in Volusia County. I bet we add another 5" to 10" before the end of the year as the esembles are buzzing this morning on both the Euro & GFS for lots of rain across the south in the long range. Very strong signal for lots of rain so hang in there as you may not get to normal but atleast some rain is good in the Dry Season.




GFS has become a lot more aggressive with cold air reaching down into Florida.
Quoting 392. Skyepony:


That is linked to ECMWF snowfall forecast. To the right of the model box that is checked, click on that gear & a drop down opens up where you can choose which model (RUC, ECMWF, GFS or NAM), which version of the model you want (I think there is like 17 different types for ECMWF) & you can choose which model run, as well as opacity & such. The blue arrow that you need to click to loop the forecast is also under that gear.

I linked a version that also had the radar on. Scroll up & unclick that first.


Thank you so much Sky. Was beginning to think my brain had finally fried,as I couldn't figure it out either!Your explanation was spot on as you can see by the screen capture below.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Most of E C FL is now in the 50" to 60" range. With totals near 60" so far this year in Volusia County. I bet we add another 5" to 10" before the end of the year as the esembles are buzzing this morning on both the Euro & GFS for lots of rain across the south in the long range. Very strong signal for lots of rain so hang in there as you may not get to normal but atleast some rain is good in the Dry Season.






That would be nice.
.68" from the last system.
That brings our total to 2.0" since October 1st (41 days).
And no rain in the forecast for at least another 5-6 days.



deleted duplicate of 402
Some are saying its too early for a severe snow/ice event for the interior south and southeast. I can't be so certain. Got my eyes on early next week.


Quoting 404. Sfloridacat5:

GFS has become a lot more aggressive with cold air reaching down into Florida.

any update on snow for my area?
Rokerthon - Al Roker is going to do a 34 hour, non-stop live weather report to break the worlds record.
It starts Wednesday night on weather.com, NBC, and some other live streaming sources.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Rokerthon - Al Roker is going to do 34 hours of non-stop live weather report to break the worlds record.
It starts Wednesday night on weather.com, NBC, and some other live streaming sources.

amazing! good luck to him, I'll bet he'll break the record, so the new one will be 34:00:01.
Quoting 410. 62901IL:

any update on snow for my area?


I don't know where you live but here is the latest GFS snowfall map.

Quoting 409. HaoleboySurfEC:

Some are saying its too early for a severe snow/ice event for the interior south and southeast. I can't be so certain. Got my eyes on early next week.




My grandparents tell me all about huge snowstorms that used to come through and dump over a foot of snow (insane for mid TN). The most snow I've ever seen here was about 3-4" a couple years ago, so it's about time I see something like that in person LOL
We just crossed 1.0C at nino 3.4 for the first time since June. Not out of the question that we could have a 0.9C or 1.0C reading at Nino 3.4 on next Monday's CPC's weekly update.



Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Some are saying its too early for a severe snow/ice event for the interior south and southeast. I can't be so certain. Got my eyes on early next week.




I've got a song, here is the lyrics. It came pretty handy last winter.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
An ICE storm is on the way.

ICE storms are so cool.
So get outside and FREEZE.
Significant ICE is coming.
It can knock down power lines.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
An ICE storm is on the way.

The ICE pellets are falling.
The rain is freezing on contact
The power's out, the warning's on
The ICE storm is now here.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
The ICE storm is now here.

The schools are letting out
The roads are icing over
It's getting worse
We're about to burst
The ICE storm is on top of us.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
It's fairly dangerous

The ICE pellets are smaller
The rain is letting up
The sky's clearing
The power's on
and the warning's an advisory.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
the ICE storm is now leaving.

We're gonna dig out from the storm
There's lots and lots of damage
I'm so sad, but we survived
The ICE storm is now gone.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
The ICE storm is now gone.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I don't know where you live but here is the latest GFS snowfall map.


Wow, 4-6 inches.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Some are saying its too early for a severe snow/ice event for the interior south and southeast. I can't be so certain. Got my eyes on early next week.




GFS going out 192 hours brings some snow into D.C. and the higher elevations down into the S.E. It also shows some mixed precipitation across the central N. Carolina region.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


ECMWF by charter agreement does not do short range forecasting. THe member states maintain their own
short range forecasting systems. They can therefore concentrate on the medium range forecast problem and, more recently short term climate forecast problem, with a focus that the NWS with its much larger mission, can't. We forecast on all timescales from within the hour out to several seasons out and I believe we are the only country that maintains an hourly analysis/forecast system HRRR, used to be the RUC implemented 1998.

ECMWF provides a textbook case study of how a research institution should be managed and is one of the best managed institutions ,in any discipline, in the world. They have not tried to grow or broaden their mission and have stayed small, around 150 researchers and support scientists.
I have this dream that one day all the developed nations of the world will decide to have one long range forecast system. The Indians are working on their own long range system, the Japanese already have one. The Chinese have one and now the Brazilians want to work on one. Such wasted resources in a world which has none to spare. Let each nation work on their own short range forecasts (using input from the international medium/long range system), something that national met systems already do a reasonably good job with. This is not an issue of competition, like building cars. There is only one right answer to the weather tomorrow, not a sports car or station wagon version. Let's swallow our national pride and get to work on this.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Rokerthon - Al Roker is going to do a 34 hour, non-stop live weather report to break the worlds record.
It starts Wednesday night on weather.com, NBC, and some other live streaming sources.
I'm getting my popcorn and sleeping bag ready for this one...
Quoting 419. sar2401:

I have this dream that one day all the developed nations of the world will decide to have one long range forecast system. The Indians are working on their own long range system, the Japanese already have one. The Chinese have one and now the Brazilians want to work on one. Such wasted resources in a world which has none to spare. Let each nation work on their own short range forecasts (using input from the international medium/long range system), something that national met systems already do a reasonably good job with. This is not an issue of competition, like building cars. There is only one right answer to the weather tomorrow, not a sports car or station wagon version. Let's swallow our national pride and get to work on this.


You are going to get some rain Sar looks like Sunday and you could get a .5" to 1" of rain. Also there is another system just right behind the one on Sunday which could deliver even more rain and even some severe weather later into next week.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:

ummm...I think i see the front.
Quoting 413. StormTrackerScott:



I don't know where you live but here is the latest GFS snowfall map.




Wow, I am sure its an over estimate but its showing 24" for my area just south of lake Erie. Time to put the plow on.
Just came back for a short walk outside and the weather is perfect.
Bright sunshine, cool NW breeze, temperature around 70 degrees.
People out walking all over the neighborhood.
Quoting roberie:


Wow, I am sure its an over estimate but its showing 24" for my area just south of lake Erie. Time to put the plow on.


It could happen. Remember you're looking at 240 hours (10 days) total accumulation.
I've seen areas around the lakes get 24" in 24 hours before.
Quoting 416. 62901IL:



I've got a song, here is the lyrics. It came pretty handy last winter.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
An ICE storm is on the way.

ICE storms are so cool.
So get outside and FREEZE.
Significant ICE is coming.
It can knock down power lines.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
An ICE storm is on the way.

The ICE pellets are falling.
The rain is freezing on contact
The power's out, the warning's on
The ICE storm is now here.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
The ICE storm is now here.

The schools are letting out
The roads are icing over
It's getting worse
We're about to burst
The ICE storm is on top of us.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
It's fairly dangerous

The ICE pellets are smaller
The rain is letting up
The sky's clearing
The power's on
and the warning's an advisory.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
the ICE storm is now leaving.

We're gonna dig out from the storm
There's lots and lots of damage
I'm so sad, but we survived
The ICE storm is now gone.

It's an ICE storm
An ICE storm
The ICE storm is now gone.

END.


My favorite part was the end.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


My favorite part was the end.

my favorite part is the verses that begin with "It's an ICE storm". I wrote it all by myself.
A few guidelines:
When you get to ICE, freeze in place.
And when you get to FREEZE, put your arms around yourself like you're cold.
Quoting 368. Skyepony:


0844 PM SNOW PINE CITY 45.83N 92.97W
11/10/2014 M14.0 INCH PINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER
Am I reading that right.? 14 inches.?
So far the model runs I've seen all have Tennessee in their crosshairs. So far out, so we'll see what happens. Still, it looks like potential for some interesting weather early next week.

Truthfully I'm more concerned with potential ice and/or severe weather. Snow is fun.

Quoting 414. Huracan94:

br abp="1101">My grandparents tell me all about huge snowstorms that used to come through and dump over a foot of snow (insane for mid TN). The most snow I've ever seen here was about 3-4" a couple years ago, so it's about time I see something like that in person LOL
Quoting hydrus:
Am I reading that right.? 14 inches.?

That's pretty close to what I got during the December 5-7 2013 storm, which I called Winter Storm Andy.
Quoting 425. roberie:



Wow, I am sure its an over estimate but its showing 24" for my area just south of lake Erie. Time to put the plow on.
This is to far out to consider , but this would be serious business if it were to occur , especially for folks on the plateau.

be back later
Next Tuesday
Cold air plunging down into the S.E.

Quoting 430. hydrus:

Am I reading that right.? 14 inches.?


Yes 14"
Quoting hydrus:
Am I reading that right.? 14 inches.?
That's what it said yesterday. It was the highest amount I saw. Most were in the 3" to 8" range. I don't know it that's an incorrect measurement or Pine City happens to be in the center of the MN Snowmageddon. :-0
Quoting 431. HaoleboySurfEC:

So far the model runs I've seen all have Tennessee in their crosshairs. So far out, so we'll see what happens. Still, it looks like potential for some interesting weather early next week.

Truthfully I'm more concerned with potential ice and/or severe weather. Snow is fun.




Tennessee will be the battleground next week as Tennessee will be getting lots of snow with severe weather possible further south. Euro & GFS seem to be converging on something big next week but when is the question as both models have different solutions for different time frames.
Quoting 419. sar2401:

I have this dream that one day all the developed nations of the world will decide to have one long range forecast system. The Indians are working on their own long range system, the Japanese already have one. The Chinese have one and now the Brazilians want to work on one. Such wasted resources in a world which has none to spare. Let each nation work on their own short range forecasts (using input from the international medium/long range system), something that national met systems already do a reasonably good job with. This is not an issue of competition, like building cars. There is only one right answer to the weather tomorrow, not a sports car or station wagon version. Let's swallow our national pride and get to work on this.


This seems like a good idea but there is a counterargument. It turns out that there is a lot of added value in having several independent long range forecast and analysis systems running concurrently. It remains a cynical reality that ensemble spread between different major centers' runs (poor man's ensemble) is better than the spread between the members of an individual center's ensemble runs however mathematically erudite the
generation algorithms are. So even though ECMWF is the best, there is a lot of added value from the UKMET, GEM, GFS, and Japanese models. Ensembles themselves add value because they can diagnose predictability on a given day.

This boils down to "it's good to get a second opinion". That remains true even when your doctor is the best in his field.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Next Tuesday
Cold air plunging down into the S.E.



Birmingham's take so far, from the 6:08 am discussion. Seems like the coldest air will stay north and east of us while the cold air gets here after the moisture exits but, as the boys are quick to point out, no models do well with kind of scenario. Gulf lows and continental cold air can cause a lot of trouble.

WE'LL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AS A VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. LONG TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC THAT WILL PLAY INTO WHAT HAPPENS
WITH OUR WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS BEING
PROGGED TO ORIGINATE FROM THE PACIFIC AND EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE
WEST COAST AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THAT SHORTWAVE IS
BEING ADVERTISED TO HELP TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OF A SURFACE LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE LOW WOULD THEN BE PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING AND
WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/RAINFALL COMING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE ALWAYS HAS A
TOUGH TIME RESOLVING ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE DATA VOID AREA OF
THE PACIFIC...BOTH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AN RAISED POPS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CATEGORICAL POPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED IF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO AGREE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO DOUBT PLENTY OF LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 140+ KNOT JET STREAK TO OUR
NORTHEAST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWARD. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DRY AIR WILL COME IN TOO FAST FOR ANY LINGERING WINTRY
PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AS
MENTIONED BEFORE GUIDANCE HAS A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF
THESE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY CHANGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MISS
US TO THE NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
96E is producing alot of rain. In some areas offshore, the rain is falling at a rate of over an inch an hour. The white area here is where more than 8 inches has fallen in the last 12hrs.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


This seems like a good idea but there is a counterargument. It turns out that there is a lot of added value in having several independent long range forecast and analysis systems running concurrently. It remains a cynical reality that ensemble spread between different major centers' runs (poor man's ensemble) is better than the spread between the members of an individual center's ensemble runs however mathematically erudite the
generation algorithms are. So even though ECMWF is the best, there is a lot of added value from the UKMET, GEM, GFS, and Japanese models. Ensembles themselves add value because they can diagnose predictability on a given day.

This boils down to "it's good to get a second opinion". That remains true even when your doctor is the best in his field.
I don't disagree with this but let's pick one as the "second opinion" model. Just like going to six doctors is not likely to make your medical condition more clear, having five or more battling models doesn't make weather forecasts more clear. We see this every year, as people go "model shopping" for the one that meets their needs rather than the ones most likely to be correct. Maybe the combination of the Euro plus the GFS would be the most accurate in the long term, but let's make an international effort out of it. I also have no problem with selling the full data and chart sets to commercial enterprises either. There is no way we as taxpayers should be funding free data used by private forecasting businesses, many of whom charge their customers big bucks, for their analysis of data that cost them nothing. Same thing with making it all available to people like us. As Levi pointed out, we don't need that data, we want that data. There's not one in a hundred people here who read and interpret weather models correctly. Make a subset available, just like the ECMWF does now, but we don't need to see every permutation of map and model. Snowfall maps are an excellent example. We all know they are too large in scale to be accurate for any one area and, at 10 days out, they are extremely unlikely to be even close to accurate. Let the national met services, that understand their territory, take over that forecasting at five days out. Except for our own pleasure and amusement, I can't think of one reason why the average weather geek needs to guess about what might happen 10 days from now.
Quoting hydrus:
This is to far out to consider , but this would be serious business if it were to occur , especially for folks on the plateau.

Yes indeed, a 991 mb low centered on the border of north Alabama and Tennessee the day before Thanksgiving would be serious business. I'm trying to remember the last time we had a non-tropical low near 991 mb in Alabama. It's been a long time.


i live in new haven,conn i guess we are going to get a few inches of snow!
Quoting 430. hydrus:

Am I reading that right.? 14 inches.?


Three currently tied for the lead.............


...MINNESOTA...
CAMBRIDGE 16.5
RUSH CITY 2.8 NE 16.5
ST AUGUSTA 16.5


Link
Quoting 415. StormTrackerScott:

We just crossed 1.0C at nino 3.4 for the first time since June. Not out of the question that we could have a 0.9C or 1.0C reading at Nino 3.4 on next Monday's CPC's weekly update.




its moving fast to
Quoting Skyepony:

That is linked to ECMWF snowfall forecast. To the right of the model box that is checked, click on that gear & a drop down opens up where you can choose which model (RUC, ECMWF, GFS or NAM), which version of the model you want (I think there is like 17 different types for ECMWF) & you can choose which model run, as well as opacity & such. The blue arrow that you need to click to loop the forecast is also under that gear.

I linked a version that also had the radar on. Scroll up & unclick that first.
Thank you, Skye. I got that figured out now. If they could only make the wundermap run faster and not lock up my computer, it would be really useful.
Quoting 444. sar2401:

Yes indeed, a 991 mb low centered on the border of north Alabama and Tennessee the day before Thanksgiving would be serious business. I'm trying to remember the last time we had a non-tropical low near 991 mb in Alabama. It's been a long time.
Under normal conditions, we start to lose branches at 1000 mb. Anything lower than that and it really gets bad about 3 and a half years ago, we had one at 29.38, and lasted about 24 hours. Ripped the soffit from under the eaves , took down several braches that were as big as a large tree themselves. Smashed a very expensive gate , and tore up about 200 ft of fencing. 2 of the trees barely survived. Have lost a cherry , pine , and a maple due to lightening.
Need to get the low to form a little further south similar to the Blizzard of 1993 (960mb Low)


41010 which is a bit farter off Cape Canaveral than 41009 had it's pressure fall farther than 41009 with the baby nor'easter.

Quoting Skyepony:
41010 which is a bit farter off Cape Canaveral than 41009 had it's pressure fall farther than 41009 with the baby nor'easter.



That looks about 1004mb.
Quoting 450. Sfloridacat5:

Need to get the low to form a little further south similar to the Blizzard of 1993 (960mb Low)





i love this weather map.. the cold weather will be here soon!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting sar2401:
I think Floridians knew exactly what Amendment 1 meant. Get most the funding from groups that are affecting wildlife and don't ask the taxpayer to foot the entire bill. Voters are a lot mode willing to vote for an amendment like that one than another bill that proposes to good things by picking their pockets again.
As with much legislation, all one had to know about Florida's Amendment 1 could be learned by looking at the opposition. And that opposition read like a Who's Who of anti-environment, anti-regulation, profit-uber-alles people and organizations: the Florida Chamber of Commerce, the Florida Council of 100, the Liberty Caucus, and a host of conservative politicians, and so on. In the informal polling I did, most people weren't completely aware that the Amendment would be funded via the existing excise tax; they simply know an environmentally-friendly piece of legislation when they see it. For decades, profiteers have decimated the state's lush environment and pillaged its natural resources to fatten the wallets of a minority; people see that, and have had enough.
Just finished snowblowing 12 packy inches here on Chequamegon Bay, it was slow going. Several reports of up to 14 inches in the area, with another foot today in the high terrain of the Lake Superior snowbelt in northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan.

First post here - hello, everyone - and it's a question. I hope some of the (much) more knowledgeable folks here can answer it. This post by Dr. Masters made me think of it.

It's a chicken or the egg question. I know that deep dips in the jet stream over the mainland US are associated with strong low pressure areas (commonly called troughs or TROFs). Here's the question - does a pre-existing trough cause the jetstream dips, or do the dips cause the formation of the troughs? Thanks in advance!
460. vis0

Quoting 420. sar2401:

I'm getting my popcorn and sleeping bag ready for this one...
Don't forget the eye mask & earplugs. zip up
461. vis0
Quoting 419. sar2401:  I have this dream
that one day all the developed nations of the world will decide to have
one long range forecast system. The Indians are working on their own
long range system, the Japanese already have one. The Chinese have one
and now the Brazilians want to work on one.
.....
Quoting 421. StormTrackerScott:  You are going to get some rain Sar looks like Sunday and you could get a .5" to 1" of rain.....
       Quoting myself. vis0 :: ► Usted va a conseguir un poco de lluvia Sar parece a domingo y usted podría conseguir un 0,9 "a 2" de la lluvia. ahh GFS

► あなたは、SARは日 曜日のように見える くつかの雨を得 うとしている、あなたは の".06" 0.5を得ることができる ?%#@! GFS

►Sie sind dabei, einige regen Sar aussieht Sonntag bekommen und Sie haben ein 0,04 "bis 1.000043" der regen bekommen konnte. AHG GFS!

► Vous allez obtenir un peu de pluie Sar ressemble dimanche et vous pourriez obtenir un 0,5 à 0,8 soso "de 1" 0 à si si 2,0 de pluie. Sacrebleu GFS

i
agree w/Sar statement (too lazy to go get it?, actually shopping for
elderly neighbors b4 freeze gotta go) except i guess learning from
error ON YOUR OWN is the only way to teach hardheaded thinkers and we
need a hard-head now and then so let them have their cake & eat it
too (w/diet soda of course) lets hope we have enough time to make so
many errors.
462. Bau
Hi Jeff,

I received from a friend 2 videos that let me think once again about the origin of the meteorological movements and their origin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqPXYcXHzBI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfsLmjaLpnY&spfrel oad=1
In the second one, it looks like the eye of an hurricane...
My question is: do you know if any of the big meteo computer models takes in account the natural pulsations of our planet. Tesla who was quite famous in his domain wrote a lot about the magnetic pulsations of the planet earth, arond 4 hertz, if I remember well.
Can we consider in a certain way that the general athmosphere could react like a non newtonian liquid or is their another definition that would apply or should be investigated. The athmosphere in its whole has different temperatures, speed, directions, densities, currents, etc. And this whole is totally not under control and we still do not understand it well even if we can describe it quite well.
I alway asked my self what is the origin or the generator of the new movements of the athmosphere, why so many cycles, each year or 7 years or 20 years, etc. Being a pilot, I studied a little all those things but never found an acceptable answer.
Maybe we could try to see if the rythms of nature are interfering with or controled by the rythms of the earth...!

One must have projects to go ahead and smile...!

Thanks a lot for your fantastic job. It helps us a lot.

Baudouin Delneste / Cancun