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Long Range Winter Outlook

By: Steve Gregory 6:21 PM GMT on November 06, 2014

Analysis and Forecast by Steve Gregory...



COLDER THAN NORMAL GREAT LAKES - NEW ENGLAND AND GULF COAST

A colder than normal winter, especially during the first half appears likely for the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and New England region, while below normal Temps are also likely across the entire Gulf coast region. However, while Temps will likely average below normal, it’s very unlikely that this winter will be even remotely close to last years’ frigid winter.

In contrast to the east, the western half of the nation should see another unusually mild winter – but should be significantly stormier than last year – with above normal Precip expected from northern California to Washington State as the mean storm track shifts further south compared to last year - especially by January. Near normal Precip appears likely for southern California, allowing for at least some recovery from the extreme drought of the last several years.


FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE – AN ENSEMBLE OF TECHNIQUES

Based on the extended range GFS and EURO global ensembles, dynamical trends, along with forecasts and tools available from NOAA, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and various University and Research group models (all of which call for at least some further strengthening of El Niño) – point towards a generally cold start to winter. However, unlike last year when we had long duration cold air events that included several cross-polar flow patterns – there should be a more progressive and stronger maritime influence as a more westerly flow of air moves into western North America due to an El-Niño like wind pattern. Using the CFSv2 and NMME Model Ensembles (that are made up many well known global and specialized climate models) an El Niño-like driven winter pattern should develop by late DEC or by mid JAN. This should lead to larger precipitation events compared to last year in the west and along the Gulf coast region, with a simultaneous lessening of the cold anomalies over the eastern half of the nation that will likely highlight the upcoming 6 weeks.

The colder pattern that is now developing across the US is partially the result of an enormous and very powerful West Pacific cyclone developing from the remnant of Typhoon Nuri (with the GFS forecasting a central pressure of 918mb by SAT morning). This super storm is building a strong ridge ahead of it – with an even stronger downstream TROF expected to form over North America next week. These type of strong tropical storm forcing mechanisms on the overall hemispheric wind pattern generally last 10-15 days – but rarely, for longer periods - IF there is a lack of pattern forcing from the Eastern Pacific (EPAC).

Another, albeit small, input to the Long Range Outlook is a fairly well studied phenomena related to the early development of a large AND unusually deep snow cover in Siberia during October. Absent a strong Pacific ENSO event influence, a deep Siberian snow cover in the Fall often leads to a cold North American winter as the large, low level source of cold air over Siberia ‘sets up’ a jet stream pattern that favors deep, arctic air mass intrusions into much of North America. Unfortunately, real-time snow depth reports from the Euro-Asian region (and especially Siberia!) is simply not available. Snow extent (derived from Satellite imagery) is, however, available on a daily basis, and current snow extent (and arctic basin ice coverage) is slightly greater than at the same time last year, and significantly more widespread than in OCT 2012. Although I’ve only given small weighting to these indicators, it was enough to forecast a colder winter than that given in the official NOAA outlook, but not nearly as cold as most every other private forecast services are calling for.


WHAT COULD DERAIL THIS FORECAST?

Numerous things could negate the expected impact from the warm Pacific waters – including the near impossible to forecast development of a strongly negative Arctic and/or North Atlantic Oscillation (AO and NAO respectively, even when we have a moderately strong El Niño event. Strongly negative NAO and AO indices typically results in a very cold winter in the eastern half of the nation. (Ironically, last year’s AO and NAO averaged near to above normal – and were a very big exception to the above ‘rule’.) However, there are other, lesser known ‘oscillations’ or Teleconnection patterns like the PNA, EP-NP, and PT. Most of these teleconnections do not become established until early DEC – but even then, these teleconnections can vary dramatically over the course of the winter.

In addition to the above uncertainties, ‘spectacular’ and Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) tends to occur every few years that can bring about major hemispheric pattern changes – with very cold weather resulting in either Asia or North America. These events are even harder to predict than teleconnections which themselves can only be reliably forecast about 2 weeks in advance at best.

But at the moment, the most uncertain aspect of the below Winter Outlook has to do with Pacific Basin Temperature anomalies. This includes the slowly strengthening El Niño, but just as importantly, the very warm conditions off the west coast of North America that extends into the Gulf of Alaska, with another large warm water anomaly extending from the California coast westward to past the Date Line. A wedge of colder waters divides this mid-latitude warm water from the very high latitude warm water in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) region. As explained in some of the below Figures, the Pacific Basin SST anomaly pattern has been continuously evolving over the past year, and is quite unlike last year at the same time, and will likely remain significantly different from last winter. This seemingly non-stop SSTA pattern 'evolution' has introduced even greater uncertainty in the current Long Range Winter Outlook. But one thing is clear – last year saw the development of a strong, Negative Phase of the PDO, whereas we are now in a Positive PDO phase pattern (which dominated the later 1980's and 1990’s). And whereas last winter featured a weak La Niña event, this years equatorial SST anomaly is clearly in the El Niño camp.

Overall, confidence in my current forecast is considered average, or a ‘3’ on a 1-5. It would be a ‘4’ if not for the larger than normal uncertainty for the overall Pacific Basin SST anomalies going forward (both relating to the PDO and intensity of El Niño) . An updated (and final) Winter Forecast will be issued at the end of the month, with a mid-winter update in JAN.


CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 1: The evolution of Total Heat Content anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific over the past year. Starting in DEC 2013, cooler than normal conditions developed across the Equatorial EPAC, leading to a weak La Niña episode. By FEB, however, the strongest SSTA reversal on record developed, with heat content in the Equatorial Pacific reaching El Niño like levels (and which is why NOAA and most everyone else at the time began calling for the strongest El Niño event by this winter since 1997/98). This reversal was due to 3 strong westerly wind bursts related to a strong MJO signal over the west central Pacific. However, the pattern suddenly reversed again, with heat content falling off rapidly by the start of Summer. It was during the summer that the full impact of the early spring warming began showing up in the Atmospheric pattern, and this began a resurgence in warm Equatorial waters with a generally weak but warm ENSO episode now in progress.




Fig 2: One of the ‘noisier’ indicators for an ENSO episode is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Despite the noisy aspect of the SOI, a negative SOI has taken hold over the past several months – and 5 month running means of -8 or lower are indicative of an El Niño event.




Fig 3: The above SST anomaly analysis charts show the stark differences in SSTA’s (Sea Surface Temp Anomalies) this year compared to last year across the Pacific Basin (Charts A and E). By the middle of last winter (Chart B), we had a significant cold ENSO event, but also a pool of very warm waters in the Gulf of Alaska. This anomalous combination, along with a basin wide Positive PDO SSTA pattern was the primary driver to the non-stop frigid winter weather over the US. By June (Chart C) we saw the cold ENSO event reverse to a weak warm one, with a continual warming across much of the Pacific Basin throughout the summer. This warm anomaly pattern peaked in AUG, but by SEP (Chart D), the SSTA pattern began changing yet again. The very warm GOA/Bering Sea SSTA’s reversed with much smaller warm anomalies in the northern GOA and a spreading wedge of cooler than normal SST’s from off the Japan coast eastward into the southern GOA (Chart F). In addition, a slow warming has continued in most of the Equatorial Pacific (Chart G shows the very large CHANGE in SST’s during the month of OCT alone). Finally, Chart H shows the subsurface SSTA’s in the upper 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific. Though I have not included a time based animation of this chart, the typical ‘trend’ is for SSTA’s at depth in the western Pacific to spread eastward and rise ever closer to the surface in the EPAC over the ensuing 6-8 week period. For this reason, I expect warmer than normal SST’s in the EPAC to continue through the winter season.



Fig 4: The above SSTA patterns depict the ‘idealized’ PDO pattern for the Positive and Negative Phases that tend to last 15-25 years before reversing. Using the above SSTA charts, you can see that we are now in a Positive PDO Phase with a weak El Niño, unlike last year’s Negative Phase PDO, which also featured a weak La Niña event superimposed on it.




Fig 5: The above charts show the evolution of Sea Surface HEIGHT (SSH) anomalies courtesy of NASA’s JASON Satellite derived datasets, and considered the ‘Gold Standard’ for interpreting thermal based circulation characteristics of the oceans. Above normal SSH’s indicate relatively deep, warm waters, while lower heights imply colder waters at depth. What makes this image so useful right now is to compare it to the standard SSTA charts. Overall SSH’s have risen sharply from the central Equatorial Pacific to off the west coast of California, and have increased again over the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea – both of which show near to even below normal SST’s right now. This only makes sense when you realize that with the onset of winter, cold air moving across the Bering Sea and Aleutians is chilling down the surface waters in those regions. But at depth, warm water is again developing. In addition, the very low (cold) ocean heights in the far western and to some degree central Pacific is displaced south of the axis of cold water shown on the SSTA charts. Because of these differences, an even stronger Positive Phase of the PDO appears likely to develop over the next few months, with a warm ENSO episode superimposed on it. This is totally opposite of last years Negative PDO Phase and cool ENSO waters. As far as I know, in depth correlations and seasonal impact composites of such patterns (especially their relative intensities) has not been compiled. We ‘know’ what happened last year (and I believe the PDO and ENSO patterns contributed to at least 70% of last Years US Winter pattern) – but exactly how the reversal of the pattern this year will impact our weather remains unclear – but I expect it to play a major role.




Fig 6: Besides the ONI metric used by NOAA to determine the strength of ENSO events, another, more ‘complete’ metric is the Multivariate ENSO Index MEI which takes into account both SST’s and several atmospheric indices (the Index is expressed in Standard Deviations). This particular chart shows the evolution of ENSO events since 1950 that started off well in Neutral territory during the prior year. There were 4 statistically significant analogs to this year’s values, and in 3 out of 4 cases, a weak to moderate El Niño followed.




Fig 7: The above chart shows the top 7 El Nino’s since 1950. The true standouts remain the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events, when the index reached 3 standard deviations from normal. Both of those events induced extremely warm winters in the US. The remaining events ranged from 1 to 2 Std. Deviations, which were considered Moderate to Strong events. The current ENSO state is around 0.6 Std. Dev., but is expected to approach 1.0 by JAN (a weak to Moderate El Niño). But just as important is the warm water off the west coast, which when combined with a weak-moderate El Niño, should lead to a more pronounced El Niño atmospheric pattern than the ONI or MEI metrics alone would imply.




Fig 8: In support of the above position for El Niño is the POAMA index forecast from the Australian BOM that calls for additional strengthening of El Niño to well within the El Niño event category which is shown lasting into next summer.




Fig 9: A more detailed break-out of specific model forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region courtesy of the AUSI BOM for JAN and March, 2015. The NASA, EURO and Canadian models show the strongest warming, but all models call for at least weak El Niño conditions.



Fig 10: The above charts the ONI Index used by NOAA, and the CFSv2 Ensemble member forecasts for this index through mid summer 2015. Although the Niño 3.4 region serves as the basis for the ONI (and MEI) metrics, this ‘one size fits all’ – especially when there are significantly different SSTA intensities within the other Niño regions (like we have now) has more times than not led to busted seasonal forecasts. The warmer SSTA’s outside the 3.4 region, plus the warm water off the West coast and the positive PDO phase, tends to support (IMHO) the development of a well developed El Niño like atmospheric circulation pattern this winter.



Fig 11: The above representation of an El Niño pattern shows the impact on equatorial convection with warmer than normal SST’s in the EPAC. Convection is enhanced due to the warm waters, which forms a bit of a feedback loop with anomalous westerly winds spilling out of the T-storms in the Equatorial EPAC, which further reduces the normal upwelling off the South American coast and eastern Pacific waters in general. The convection also impacts the development, mean location and intensity of the winter season sub-tropical jet stream.




Fig 12: In a ‘classic’ moderate, and especially strong, El Niño episode, a relatively warmer flow off the Pacific tends to dominate North America – with above normal Temps and drier than normal conditions over the northern tier of states, and cooler, wetter conditions in the south due to the stronger sub-tropical jet.



CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 13: A look back at the NMME Ensemble Model suite forecast for the month of OCT that was issued in early SEP. Two of the NCAR models had the best overall ‘pattern’ forecast, easily beating out the NMME ensemble itself. The NCAR model caught the cool anomaly in the east, but did not have the correct anomaly magnitude in the west. OTH, the NCAR CCSM4 model caught the general PATTERN overall, including the Temp anomaly magnitudes in the west, but was too warm in the east (though significantly cooler than in the west). With this in mind, a little extra weight in my forecast was given to these models than would normally be the case.




Fig 14: The latest available Winter Season (DEC-JAN-FEB) forecasts from the NMME model suite. While the ensemble solutions shown (NMME and IMME) call for a generally mild to ‘warm’ winter in most areas, the NCAR model was considered the best overall model – though it’s now in conflict with the CCSM4 model. (The CFS model, not shown, shows above normal Temps nationwide this winter. )




Fig 15: My Month-By-Month Temp anomaly forecasts for DEC-FEB. The cold start shown for DEC (but again, not nearly as cold as last year) is expected to gradually give way to warmer anomalies by later in Jan and in FEB. Temps should average above normal in the west throughout the winter, as will cooler conditions across the Gulf states region.




Fig 16: The full winter Temp Outlook is simply the arithmetic mean of the individual monthly forecast charts.




Fig 17: The primary storm tracks should result in above normal Precip in the PAC NW, and closer to normal over the SW US. Significant Gulf of Mexico and Ohio valley storm tracks are also indicated – all of which are typical of an El Niño circulation pattern.




Fig 18: The latest available NOAA forecast for DEC-FEB reflects a full fledged El Niño winter.

Steve Gregory

Winter Weather long range winter outlook

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

From previous blog just posted.

Also, thanks for the new blog(Steven G.)
I'm also a Steve G.

I'm having some computer issues at the moment and can't post any images.

But the 12Z GFS is now showing freezing temps all the way down to the Gulf Coast and Northern Florida next Saturday/Sunday (Nov 15/16).
Thank You for the detailed analysis. Living here in Tallahassee, we had a nice 30's cold shot recently (in October) and most of us were figuring for a cooler Winter than we have had recently based on that pattern. However, we all still remember the ice storm that brought Atlanta to a crawl last Winter so a few bitter blasts are always expected and the Gulf Coast has had a few the last few seasons.

We usually get those potential "teens" in February in these parts; not looking forward to it come 2015.
Thanks for the new blog. What are the units on the +1, -1, etc. maps? I'll guess degrees Fahrenheit but I'm not sure.
Quoting 4. bappit:

Thanks for the new blog. What are the units on the +1, -1, etc. maps? I'll guess degrees Fahrenheit but I'm not sure.


These are in F.

Steve
While I applaude the effort that is put into long range forecasts and them attempts to decipher the clues going down the road, I can't say that I have ever put much stock in long range forecasts. Last winter was a prime example, there also was the forecast of El Nino to appear in some form six months ago.

A good bet in any winter would be to incrementally try to make your house (dwelling, whatever) more energy efficient every single year. You'll always come out on top.

Ski areas have long since figured out that long range forecasts are more or less pointless, hence the reason they invest on more energy efficient snowmaking every summer.

Not to mention the fact that all the major weather and news outlets, almanacs, etc, all put out a long range forecast and any given year they all vary wildly. Perhaps a twenty year running average to see who has the best track record in regards to seasonal outlooks?
Thanks Dr. Steve... hope the forecast holds (at least in our area) would make for a pleasant winter.
Thank you! I was just posting the SOI index which has been tanking in drastic fashion lately also Nino 3.4 has been at El-Nino levels since early October. NOAA's report today made no sense really if you ask me. How can you lower percentages to only declare it a month later. Very strange.


Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 06 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -10.6
Average for last 90 days -8.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -27.2


Quoting 2. Sfloridacat5:





More interesting is the GFS shows rain across FL at that same time. Pattern has reversed so hang tight as lots of rain is now on the way from this weekend thru next Spring.

Thanks for the very in-depth report Dr. M.
GFS precip accum for the next 2 weeks.

Going to be a stormy weekend across FL with 1" to 2" of rain being forecast from basically all the models this afternoon across C FL.

Winter analogs from my blog for 2014/2015 Winter. 1976/1977 seems to fit this Winter perfectly.

Thanks Steve...
I am assuming (and I hate to assume) that this forecast also forecasts a warmer than normal Alaskan winter?

Especially since so far it has been...
Dr. Steve saved me from the rash of hecklers on here today now that NOAA's report was released which contradicts the Aussie's report.
good blog!!
Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:

Going to be a stormy weekend across FL with 1" to 2" of rain being forecast from basically all the models this afternoon across C FL.




Boy do we need the rain here. We haven't had a drop in at least three weeks. What a difference a month makes. Though such dry spells are not that uncommon here this time of year, it still would be nice to get 1/2" a week or so.



up and up its go!!
Quoting 18. HurrMichaelOrl:



Boy do we need the rain here. We haven't had a drop in at least three weeks. What a difference a month makes. Though such dry spells are not that uncommon here this time of year, it still would be nice to get 1/2" a week or so.


Typically before the rains begin from El-Nino events we go thru a dry spell during October before the Winter rains from El-Nino arrive in November and the models are showing a rain event this weekend and then again later next week both events could be solid systems dropping 1" to 2" for each event.
Wrong for 11 months in a row and maybe right next month and proud of it!
STS: Temps in the Ohio Valley in Oct. 1976 were very cold, with many record monthly minimums set. October of this year saw average temps in the Ohio Valley, with some record highs for the date being set late in the month
I just finished reading your blog. Thanks Dr. Gregory. It seems to support a lot of what some having been saying about the el nino like conditions. Good information, especially the persistent anomaly of the SST's around Alaska. I haven't read this much since finishing "War & Peace"

Good blog.
low.amplitude.tw.cen.atlantic
Probably one of the best blogs I have read here..

Steve..whats your thought on NOAA lowering the El Nino percentages today?

I also hope you provide your update on the final winter outlook here in Dr. Masters blog..
nice update I too just finished the read good info



now what kind of wrench can I throw into it


hmmm
Quoting 16. StormTrackerScott:

Dr. Steve saved me from the rash of hecklers on here today now that NOAA's report was released which contradicts the Aussie's report.


Not heckling you Scott but you were just stating the other day about Steve Gregory forecasting warm temps being wrong and now he is saving you?

I hope that El Nino is declared because if not some bloggers are going to really give you a hard time as they live to only blog about your forecasts..

Italy is besieged by thunderstorms that are going up from North Africa.




Yesterday there was a flooding in Carrara (rain up to 200 mm in two hours during the late night) and two tornadoes in Sicily, today the alert is raised at red level (maximum) in eight regions.
Quoting 27. ncstorm:



Not heckling you Scott but you were just stating the other day about Steve Gregory forecasting warm temps being wrong and now he is saving you?

I hope that El Nino is declared because if not some bloggers are going to really give you a hard time as they live to only blog about your forecasts..




And he was wrong about the temps across the East. By the way wasn't referring to you ncstorm. I always appreciate your post as you always try to keep things respectful unlike many others on here. I really like you and would never refer to you as heckling me.
Dont know if this has been posted or not but the 12z CMC total snowfall map..

I don't want an warm, boring La Niña winter. I want a frigid cold, fun El Niño winter.
Quoting 30. ncstorm:

Dont know if this has been posted or not but the 12z CMC total snowfall map..


perfect I am in the 0.1 area
Quoting ncstorm:
Dont know if this has been posted or not but the 12z CMC total snowfall map..

That snow line is getting close to me.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Getting cold. Brrr.
Quoting 30. ncstorm:

Dont know if this has been posted or not but the 12z CMC total snowfall map..


Hey!! Get that long range model run off this blog!!..... pronto!! ;)
Quoting 28. Stefaneik:

Italy is besieged by thunderstorms that are going up from North Africa.




Yesterday there was a flooding in Carrara (rain up to 200 mm in two hours during the late night) and two tornadoes in Sicily, today the alert is raised at red level (maximum) in eight regions.


Quoting 32. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

perfect I am in the 0.1 area


well if it makes you feel any better the 12z Euro is running and pretty much covering Central and some of eastern US with at least the ratio of 0.1 area so you wont be alone..LOL
night view coming up from Africa
Quoting 38. ncstorm:



well if it makes you feel any better the 12z Euro is running and pretty much covering Central and some of eastern US with at least the ratio of 0.1 area so you wont be alone..LOL
I put as much faith in those models as o never mine
Go away clown..

you always twisting what people say..posting snow images and constantly talking about snow in June, July and August when NONE of the models were showing is kinda weird but now that the models are actually showing snow its revelant..

but whatever rocks your boat..
Quoting 36. Tornado6042008X:

Hey!! Get that long range model run off this blog!!..... pronto!! ;)


12Z Euro has snow from San Antonio to North Carolina later next week. Snow now getting close to Houston on this run.
Through Monday, one can expect 0.5-1" of rain from Central FL southward. Not too much but enough to get ya wet. Should be gone by Monday and we dry out once again.

Quoting 43. StormTrackerScott:



12Z Euro has snow from San Antonio to North Carolina later next week. Snow now getting close to Houston on this run.
i hope it happern i love the snow!
Quoting ncstorm:
Dont know if this has been posted or not but the 12z CMC total snowfall map..



Based on the 12Z GFS, that possible snow would come on Nov. 15-17.
Another low crosses Florida next weekend and rides up the coast. If enough cold air builds into the S.E. there could be some snow.

But a lot can change between now and then.
Quoting 25. ncstorm:

Probably one of the best blogs I have read here..

Steve..whats your thought on NOAA lowering the El Nino percentages today?

I also hope you provide your update on the final winter outlook here in Dr. Masters blog..


Not really surprising, but coming out with a 58% probability? That's a level of precision way beyond me! But lets see what they change (or don't) in the National Winter Weather Outlook, which accounts for other variables besides El Nino.
42. ncstorm
41. washingtonian115

give it up will ya
97 soon to be gone
little sst comparing 2013 2014 todays date




still to far out to know how much snow!!
Snow Fatigue, Already?
On the heels of last weekend's storm, parts of New England will see more snow ahead.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


12Z Euro has snow from San Antonio to North Carolina later next week. Snow now getting close to Houston on this run.


Earliest snowfall in recorded history for San Antonio is Nov. 23, 1957 with 0.3"




Gusty winds will couple with the snow as the low strengthens. Sustained winds from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph, are possible.

In general, these winds will be less strong than what Maine experienced last weekend. However, we can't rule out additional power outages due to the combination of snow and wind. Also, significant blowing and drifting snow is possible in northern Maine Friday night before winds taper off Saturday morning.

Winter storm watches, warnings and winter weather advisories have been posted in parts of northern New England.
Thank you Steve Gregory.
That is so complicated that I will probably have to reincarnate to have enough life left to understand most of it all.
Needless to say. Thank you again, most informative.
Interesting. Looks like it may be cold enough western NC.

Quoting 30. ncstorm:

Dont know if this has been posted or not but the 12z CMC total snowfall map..


Highs 10-20 degrees below average will spread across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest on Monday and Tuesday. and may see their first sub-freezing high temperature of the season by midweek. The last time Chicago did not get above freezing was on March 25.

It will be breezy as well, which will make it feel even colder. Wind chills will be in the single digits for much of the northern Plains and Midwest, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

A few record cool high temperatures are possible as well, including on Wednesday (current record is 33 set in 1996) and on Friday (current record is 33 set in 1997).

The coldest temperatures and the heart of the cold air will be anchored in the northern Plains and Midwest, but will stretch across much of the central and eastern U.S. In fact, high temperatures will only be in the 20s for much of the northern Plains and parts of t
Unlike most arctic outbreaks, this one doesn't appear to have any intention of departing anytime soon.


Quoting 37. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





I'm shuddering to think what would happen if that lot moved about a 1000 miles to the west?
If we got 8 inches of persistant rain in Spain, it would probably be catostrophic. Our thoughts go out to the valleys of coastal Italy during this event, little of which is on the news here for some inexplicable reason.
Quoting 59. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unlike most arctic outbreaks, this one doesn't appear to have any intention of departing anytime soon.





12Z Euro has snow in Central Texas in the order of 2" to 3". Very unusual indeed to have snow that far south this early in the season.
StormTrackerScott look at that cold air for florida

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014


.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND WITH MOS POPS STILL BELOW 10 PERCENT...EXPECTING AN OVERALL DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE
WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 60S TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THEN COOLER DAY TOMORROW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 70S NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH OF
OSCEOLA/BREVARD.

FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT W/R/T THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. A H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS THROUGH SAT...WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AMPLIFYING AS IT REACHES THE GULF COAST ON SAT. THE TROUGH
TURNS MORE EWD SAT NIGHT...THEN MOVES ACROSS FL LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT
TO JUST EAST OF THE STATE BY 12Z MON. AT THE SURFACE...BACKING LOW
TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERRUN STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE STRAITS
AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS BACK NWD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL SAT-SAT NIGHT.
DEVELOPING LOW PRES WAVE SLIDES ENE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OVER
SOUTH FL EARLY SUNDAY...THEN TURNS NEWD AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
ERN SEABOARD BEGINNING SUN NIGHT.

MID LEVEL DPVA COUPLED WITH PAIRED H25 JET STREAKS MOVING OVERHEAD
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RESPECTABLE FORCED ASCENT MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
ECFL DURING THIS EVENT...BRINGING WITH IT THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAL
RAINS IN SEVERAL WEEKS...WITH POPS IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE FOR
SAT NIGHT-SUN. INHERITED FORECAST INDICATES SLIGHT CHC FOR TS FOR
BOTH PERIODS...WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UVM PROFILE.
Quoting 62. eddye:

StormTrackerScott look at that cold air for florida


Never gets here eddye. We just get the rain.
Quoting 51. hurricanes2018:



still to far out to know how much snow!!


That is a long way out but it looks like there could be an extended period of some serious cold weather. NC mountains have already had one good snowstorm and they just might get another one early in the season.
but nov 14 we can have cold air correct storm tracker scott
for the Orlando area
"Blue Norther" in November. I've been to South Padre in January and experienced nicer weather.

Quoting 59. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unlike most arctic outbreaks, this one doesn't appear to have any intention of departing anytime soon.



Thank you Steve
Quoting 62. eddye:

StormTrackerScott look at that cold air for florida

The thing about cold air for Florida is:-
That they will moan, complain and endlessly winge about it but being surounded by water which is very warm in comparison, they wont really suffer much long term.
The possible major problem with all this is what happens in the mid west, where life must go on in freezing conditions?
Given persitant and drawn out cold spells everything from agriculture to heating bills and social preasure all mount up over extended periods of time during cold spells.
NOAA Experiences Another Data Communications Failure
Link
I love cold weather it my favorite
Quoting PlazaRed:

The thing about cold air for Florida is:-
That they will moan, complain and endlessly winge about it but being surounded by water which is very warm in comparison, they wont really suffer much long term.
The possible major problem with all this is what happens in the mid west, where life must go on in freezing conditions?
Given persitant and drawn out cold spells everything from agriculture to heating bills and social preasure all mount up over extended periods of time during cold spells.


Cold air here means we can turn off our AC for maybe a few days.
AC is cranking right now to keep the house just 78 degrees.

We usually only need to turn on the heat for a handful of days each year.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2014
23:30 PM IST November 6 2014
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past twelve hours and lays centered over central Bay of Bengal near 14.1N 86.9E, about 750 km east southeast of Ongole, 560 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 690 km south southeast of Paradip.

It would move northwestwards and may intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It would then move west northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast.

It would weaken gradually into a Depression while reaching near the coast by Sunday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity is T2.0. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough. Estimated central pressure of the depression is 1000 hPa.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over the Bay of Bengal between 13.0N to 18.5N and 84.5E to 89.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature -74C

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 14.3N 86.7E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.5N 86.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
48 HRS 14.9N 83.5E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
=================
The sea surface temperature around the region of system is 29-30C. However it is 28C over Andhra Pradesh, Odhisha and West Bengal coasts. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around the system. However it is less than 50 kj/cm2 over parts of west central bay and over northern Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear is about 20-30 knots (high) around the system center. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have remained same during past 12 hours. There is favorable outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the east northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 15.0n. Thus the system lies close to the south of ridge and hence will be steered slowly northwestwards for some more time
Quoting 66. eddye:

but nov 14 we can have cold air correct storm tracker scott


Hmmm?
Back to the Italian rainfall situation.
They ( in Italy,) according to the European weather forecast, have had about 300mm or 12 inches of rain so far out this event.
Some of the places on the newscast were several feet under water and what I assume is the Venice area looks well saturated and partially under water.
I'm sure if Barbanz appears tonight, then she will have a few choice entries.
Meanwhile it appears to be full moon here at about 15/c or 60/F, with not a care in the world to moan about from our side of Europe and the Atlantic.
I wonder how much the remnants of Nuri will affect the lower 48.



12Z GFS
Showing coastal (actually just inland from the coast) snow next weekend (Nov. 15/16).
Quoting PlazaRed:
Back to the Italian rainfall situation.
They ( in Italy,) according to the European weather forecast, have had about 300mm or 12 inches of rain so far out this event.
Some of the places on the newscast were several feet under water and what I assume is the Venice area looks well saturated and partially under water.
I'm sure if Barbanz appears tonight, then she will have a few choice entries.
Meanwhile it appears to be full moon here at about 15/c or 60/F, with not a care in the world to moan about from our side of Europe and the Atlantic.

A lunar high tide always causes some minor flooding in Venice. Coming on top of this rain just makes a bad situation worse.
Quoting 77. Grothar:

I wonder how much the remnants of Nuri will affect the lower 48.






It's b-a-a-a-c-k......



I can't begin to describe just how (un) happy this makes me...
Quoting 80. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Put in a word KOTG.
That situation simply looks:-
AWFULL
Quoting 81. Neapolitan:

It's b-a-a-a-c-k......



I can't begin to describe just how (un) happy this makes me...


In the past I would say - what happened to Global Warming? But that got old and tired.
Quoting 51. hurricanes2018:



still to far out to know how much snow!!


That would be funny if Greensboro and Winston-Salem got that much snow this time of year, it would be mayhem I can tell you that. People there can't drive as is.
Thank you for the new blog Dr Gregory!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Unlike most arctic outbreaks, this one doesn't appear to have any intention of departing anytime soon.


One thing I notice with all these models is that the western ridge holds strongly no matter what's coming down into the Midwest r East. This is usually the signature of a weak El Nino, since moderate or strong El Ninos usually break down that ridge and allow the kind of air we're going to see from ex-Nuri to get further west. California also needs to get the Pineapple Express connection started to get out of the drought. That usually starts in December or January with El Nino years so there's still time, but things aren't looking very hopeful right now.
its gonna be cold!!!!!!!
bring the cold air for fl I want the 30
Quoting 76. PlazaRed:

Back to the Italian rainfall situation.
They ( in Italy,) according to the European weather forecast, have had about 300mm or 12 inches of rain so far out this event.
Some of the places on the newscast were several feet under water and what I assume is the Venice area looks well saturated and partially under water.
I'm sure if Barbanz appears tonight, then she will have a few choice entries.
Meanwhile it appears to be full moon here at about 15/c or 60/F, with not a care in the world to moan about from our side of Europe and the Atlantic.

Some weather stations of Friuli regional weather service are at 400/600 mm in the last 36 hours and due to the heat flow from Africa it's raining up to 2000/2500 metres in the south side of eastern Alps.
Quoting 78. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS
Showing coastal (actually just inland from the coast) snow next weekend (Nov. 15/16).





Looks like the rain is trending towards you.
Quoting 81. Neapolitan:

It's b-a-a-a-c-k......



I can't begin to describe just how (un) happy this makes me...
Making me happy!
And this big convective system it's likely to impact the eastern Alps during the night giving another high amount of rain in Veneto and Friuli

Quoting 92. Stefaneik:

And this big convective system it's likely to impact the eastern Alps during the night giving another high amount of rain in Veneto and Friuli




So this was what caused the flooding in Italian Switzerland yesterday.
347. georgevandenberghe
8:43 PM GMT on November 06, 2014

Quoting 297. hydrus:

So far, I have found this info for what happened Nashville, TN during the winter of 76,77 . The first reported snow fall in 1976 was on November 11, the last was on March 16. Snow in November and March is quite rare here. To give an idea of how long cold temps were in place for some, Buffalo, NY went below 32 on December 25 and stayed below freezing until Feb 9. Lake Erie reached freezing earlier than ever before on Dec 14, and froze over by month's end. In early Jan of 77 there was a positive PNA and a negative NAO. A normal PNA flow will average cold, but a PNA pattern that is far north with high pressure over Greenland will bring " extreme winter " . There was also the moderate Nino, which added moisture to the systems loaded with bitter Arctic air.


End Hydrus quote. Begin George V comment

Fall and winter 1976-77 were the classic western ridge eastern trough lock in all season. I've never seen another like it. The cold was just incredible, especially in January. Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, 76 and Jan, Feb 77 were all below normal but a rapid recovery began in February and spring 1977 was very warm in most of the U.S. east of the Rockies. But that fall and first half of winter are in a class by themselves. No other year approaches that extreme.

Chesapeake Bay froze over in January 1977 from shore to shore. Islands that get supplies by boat were locked in ice for six to eight weeks. Cheaspeake watermen were idled because their boats were locked in thick unbreakable ice for two months. The Ohio River froze thickly in late December and stayed frozen through early February (I don't have xact dates) This caused a lot of problems with commerce because no shipping could get through.


Thanks Steve, I like the normal for my neck of the woods. Finally starting to see some open skies to the west of us, never got the partly cloudy day they promised, but sure getting the wind! Had 49 when came in to work this a.m., that was the high as NW winds have been blowing 15-25 w/ a 38 gust. Pressure has come up .o6" in last 2 hrs to 30.21", 44 w/ a 33 dew pt currently in S C IL. Keeps clearing may get a shot at seeing the full moon rise tonight, always like the Oct & Nov moons rising, seem bigger on the horizon and more orange.
Quoting 50. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

little sst comparing 2013 2014 todays date





Much nicer on the Calif coast...
Quoting 91. Climate175:

Making me happy!


My warm season DC metro garden is toast.. oops bad metaphor.
Let's just say "done". Even with no frost to date the warm season stuff
isn't progressing much because of chill and short days. That's normal when frost holds off.

This mid November cold may approach thresholds where I see minor damage on cool season crops like lettuce. If so that would
be about two weeks early (but note tomato killing frost is about ten days late and counting..)
Quoting 96. PedleyCA:



Much nicer on the Calif coast...
been like that all year since the start of your drought
Quoting 96. PedleyCA:


Much nicer on the Calif coast...


Now if only the jet stream would cooperate and bring some storms this way.
Quoting 84. win1gamegiantsplease:



That would be funny if Greensboro and Winston-Salem got that much snow this time of year, it would be mayhem I can tell you that. People there can't drive as is.


Nov 11, 1987 I was just BURIED in DC. 18" in about ten hours. Extremely early for the DC metro area. The storm
maximized in the southeast suburbs. Rockville where I had business meetings had 5".. no big deal. But it got worse
and worse as I drove to my Temple Hills home south of the DC beltway and facing 18" unplowed with a steep hill
to my home I gave up, plowed into a snowdrift well off road and walked the remaining half mile of the 25 mile, 7 HOUR trip.
snow alert
lake effect snow set for mid next week



Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
Quoting 92. Stefaneik:

And this big convective system it's likely to impact the eastern Alps during the night giving another high amount of rain in Veneto and Friuli



I dont think most people realise how serious this is unless they have had expiriances a 10 inch or 250 MM rainfall in mountainous regions before, as I had the frightening chance to witness a couple of times a few years ago.
its strange that there is not more news coverage of these events!
From NWS Alaska's Facebook page:

"Starting tomorrow... the Bering Sea will feel the brunt of the strongest storm to hit the region in possibly decades. It might even be a record breaker.

"You've probably heard the news, this storm could break the 1977 record for the lowest atmospheric pressure recorded in Alaska, which was 925 mb measured in Dutch Harbor. It will be close. But of greater importance is where the impacts of this storm will and will NOT be felt.

"The Western and Central Aleutians and Bering Sea are in the crosshairs of strong wind and very high seas. This storm will undoubtedly impact maritime traffic.

"Further east the wind and waves will NOT be as strong but we’re still concerned about some vulnerabilities - namely, the Pribilof Islands. Starting Saturday, a prolonged southwest fetch with seas around 25 feet could cause problems for the St. Paul Harbor.

"The storm is forecast to stall and weaken in the central Bering Sea, sparing the western coast of mainland Alaska from a big coastal flood event. We’re still looking for some higher-than-normal water near the Y-K Delta and Bristol Bay, but impacts should be minor."

Quoting 103. Neapolitan:

From NWS Alaska's Facebook page:

"Starting tomorrow... the Bering Sea will feel the brunt of the strongest storm to hit the region in possibly decades. It might even be a record breaker.

"You've probably heard the news, this storm could break the 1977 record for the lowest atmospheric pressure recorded in Alaska, which was 925 mb measured in Dutch Harbor. It will be close. But of greater importance is where the impacts of this storm will and will NOT be felt.

"The Western and Central Aleutians and Bering Sea are in the crosshairs of strong wind and very high seas. This storm will undoubtedly impact maritime traffic.

"Further east the wind and waves will NOT be as strong but we’re still concerned about some vulnerabilities - namely, the Pribilof Islands. Starting Saturday, a prolonged southwest fetch with seas around 25 feet could cause problems for the St. Paul Harbor.

"The storm is forecast to stall and weaken in the central Bering Sea, sparing the western coast of mainland Alaska from a big coastal flood event. We’re still looking for some higher-than-normal water near the Y-K Delta and Bristol Bay, but impacts should be minor."




Are the deadliest catch guys out there right now? Would love to see this storm on an episode.
snow alert
fri nov 7 2014


Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
Quoting 100. georgevandenberghe:



Nov 11, 1987 I was just BURIED in DC. 18" in about ten hours. Extremely early for the DC metro area. The storm
maximized in the southeast suburbs. Rockville where I had business meetings had 5".. no big deal. But it got worse
and worse as I drove to my Temple Hills home south of the DC beltway and facing 18" unplowed with a steep hill
to my home I gave up, plowed into a snowdrift well off road and walked the remaining half mile of the 25 mile, 7 HOUR trip.

I left school early that day.It looked like things were just going to get worst.My mother didn't get back until 1 in the morning and she got off at 7 in the evening and usually got back at 8:15 or 20.
too early for crabbing yet
. The next 24 hrs.
Quoting 71. SFLWeatherman:

NOAA Experiences Another Data Communications Failure
Link


From the Accuweather article:
In a statement, the NWS said that its primary broadcast uplink site lost commercial power and backup power from around 9:30-10:28 a.m. EST Thursday.


Curious what the backup power was for this. I remember when I worked for MayCo. we had an outage and I found out later that someone forgot to keep the backup generators fuel tank topped off.
Steve Gregory wrote and posted todays blog


call this big blue doom!!
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
59/81 today with moderate humidity and partly cloudy skies. There is a band of light showers well to my west heading this way. However I expect they will weaken as the evening cools.

Quoting 113. Climate175:

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will be interesting to see what pans out that's for sure ;)
Ive got to bale out now for the night.
Interesting that we have the eastern half of the USA about to enter an Arctic winter.
Alaska and assorted upper Canadian regions having a super storm with warmer than normal temps.
Northern Italy along with other nearby countries about to become submerged, along with massive rainstorms over the eastern European alps.
Plus the chance of a mild El nino for the future?
Throw in a record Pacific eastern season possibly and who knows what next?
Good night on a full moonlit evening from southern Europe.
Quoting 115. Tornado6042008X:

Will be interesting to see what pans out that's for sure ;)

Here is what it shows, I am not paying attention to that until we are 24 hrs away, not trusting the GFS with it's record.
91B has become Tropical Cyclone five in the Indian Ocean (next name on the list is Ashobaa):





Currently a minimal TS, it's currently not expected to strengthen much more before it makes landfall in India.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible over the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.


Winnie?


For the first time in a while, we have a nearly complete circumpolar jetstream. Looking for that Pacific jet to really ramp up with the injection of energy from Nuri.
Quoting PedleyCA:


From the Accuweather article:
In a statement, the NWS said that its primary broadcast uplink site lost commercial power and backup power from around 9:30-10:28 a.m. EST Thursday.


Curious what the backup power was for this. I remember when I worked for MayCo. we had an outage and I found out later that someone forgot to keep the backup generators fuel tank topped off.
I don't know, but that was the biggest BS sales pitch for a weather service company I've ever seen.
Quoting 119. BayFog:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible over the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.


Winnie?


Probably.
Quoting 113. Climate175:

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lol is right.This is the same model that had multiple ghost storms in the caribbean.
They are in heaven in northern Maine. Snow is tourism and recreation for them in the winter. It's life for those folks. Most importantly, it's early so they can make the most of the holiday season.

Quoting 113. Climate175:

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 124. washingtonian115:

Lol is right.This is the same model that had multiple ghost storms in the caribbean.


wash don't laugh too loud

there could be a surprise coming a really big surprise
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



wash don't laugh too loud

there could be a surprise coming a really big surprise
Like how so? Do you think the polar jet and subtropical jet will merge together?
u alright there 62901il
Quoting 102. PlazaRed:


I dont think most people realise how serious this is unless they have had expiriances a 10 inch or 250 MM rainfall in mountainous regions before, as I had the frightening chance to witness a couple of times a few years ago.
its strange that there is not more news coverage of these events!

In the last years in Italy such type of phenomena with amount of rain up to 200/300 mm are becoming increasingly more frequent, last winter in northwestern Tuscany (Alpi Apuane, Lunigiana, Garfagnana and Appennino Pistoiese) we had nine events with 200 or more mm with the month of January that have a total amount of rain up to 1.000 mm in some stations. In the whole Italy in 2014 so far we had 13 flooding events that are more than the flooding events in the entires 70's, 80's and 90's together.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
u alright there 62901il

yeah
Quoting 130. Stefaneik:


In the last years in Italy such type of phenomena with amount of rain up to 200/300 mm are becoming increasingly more frequent, last winter in northwestern Tuscany (Alpi Apuane, Lunigiana, Garfagnana and Appennino Pistoiese) we had nine events with 200 or more mm with the month of January that have a total amount of rain up to 1.000 mm in some stations. In the whole Italy in 2014 so far we had 13 flooding events that are more than the flooding events in the entires 70's, 80's and 90's together.
faster and faster
Quoting 128. Climate175:

Like how so? Do you think the polar jet and subtropical jet will merge together?
I just think its going to become very winter like very soon and remain so till the first week of jan and the normal jan thaw event that occurs at that time as for any further out guess lets see how we make it to the end of dec first
I don't really mine the snow and cold its the icestorms I don't like or want
Quoting 130. Stefaneik:


In the last years in Italy such type of phenomena with amount of rain up to 200/300 mm are becoming increasingly more frequent, last winter in northwestern Tuscany (Alpi Apuane, Lunigiana, Garfagnana and Appennino Pistoiese) we had nine events with 200 or more mm with the month of January that have a total amount of rain up to 1.000 mm in some stations. In the whole Italy in 2014 so far we had 13 flooding events that are more than the flooding events in the entires 70's, 80's and 90's together.


lot more rain yet to come all the water runs back into the med

Quoting 104. VAbeachhurricanes:



Are the deadliest catch guys out there right now? Would love to see this storm on an episode.

The ships on Deadliest Catch are mostly licensed to catch Red king, Opilio, and Tanner only in the Bristol Bay area, which is many hundreds of miles east of where the storm is expected to be at its worst. Golden king crab is abundant in and around the western Aleutians where the storm will be at its worst, but from what I understand, the Deadliest Catch crews aren't licensed that far out, and golden is a springtime catch anyway. So, no. Probably not.
Quoting 109. studdy05:

Sort of amusing how much he basically tries to explain away (after the fact) everything Joe Bastardi told everyone months in advance. I rarely come to this site anymore but when I do I am usually amused. Not attacking Dr. Master's at all, he's got his specialties, but outside of an active ongoing hurricane, he's been way off the mark. Just my little observation.


First, Dr. Masters didn't write the current blog post. So there's that.

Second, if you "rarely come to this site anymore", how could you possibly be qualified to accurately rate whether or not he's "been way off the mark"?

Third, the only place Bastardi could ever possibly beat Masters is in an alphabetical list. Other than that, JB only dreams of having a fraction of Dr. Masters' meteorlogical knowledge, education, experience, or credibility.

Know what I mean?
Quoting 133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I just think its going to become very winter like very soon and remain so till the first week of jan and the normal jan thaw event that occurs at that time as for any further out guess lets see how we make it to the end of dec first


What beat us up in the DC metro area wasn't the cold so much as the extreme variability. We had some notable warm spells in between the arctic outbreaks which caused local vegetation to break dormancy. The combination of a warm last decade of February and a winter intensity arctic outbreak in March was devastating to the local vegetation and I saw a lot fewer bugs in the garden than I normally do also this summer.
139. vis0


i see lots of good reading (this blogbyte). Thought it was written by webberWx53 due to the chock full of great info+samples, but it was dynamic WxDuo of Dr. Master & Mr. Gregory.
Quoting 124. washingtonian115:

Lol is right.This is the same model that had multiple ghost storms in the caribbean.


The GFS has known issues with convective parameterization which are very difficult to run down and correct without making other portions of the model physics worse. These cause a known positive bias and feedback with strong easterly flow in the western Carribean near Central America. There are currently no such biases for synoptic scale snow events (most of ours are) and my problem with these forecasts of white doom in mid November is that they are too far out, not that they are done with a biased model. I don't trust the ECMWF or any current model out that far unless its been consistent for several days and especially if its ensembles are on board. I've been distracted by other issues and not checked if that's the case this time.
One thing about New England. Consistency.

Quoting 138. georgevandenberghe:



What beat us up in the DC metro area wasn't the cold so much as the extreme variability. We had some notable warm spells in between the arctic outbreaks which caused local vegetation to break dormancy. The combination of a warm last decade of February and a winter intensity arctic outbreak in March was devastating to the local vegetation and I saw a lot fewer bugs in the garden than I normally do also this summer.
When I see warm ave tempreture predictions for my area (New Mexico) for the entirety of this winter, that means dry weather as well! I don't have any data to back this up just my feeling on it. Sure I would happily settle for northerm NM getting good rain this winter if snow is out of the equation entirely, however the chances for that are a raindrop's chance in hell, its going to be another hellishly dry winter for Northern New Mexico and as the years go by it will be more and more clear New Mexico is in a mega drought that could last hundreds of years and within 100 years it will look like Death Valley here!
Quoting 119. BayFog:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible over the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.Winnie?


Oh, pooh

Quoting georgevandenberghe:


What beat us up in the DC metro area wasn't the cold so much as the extreme variability. We had some notable warm spells in between the arctic outbreaks which caused local vegetation to break dormancy. The combination of a warm last decade of February and a winter intensity arctic outbreak in March was devastating to the local vegetation and I saw a lot fewer bugs in the garden than I normally do also this summer.




The DC area has been like that off and on for as long as I can remember. Late 60s on. I remember crocus blooming in Jan during some of the most brutal winters and times when you could not plant til almost end of May when the winters were not so extreme. And all the variables in-between. The DC are is such a border state in more ways than one. I believe many state boundaries were influenced by weather and topography. Its a fascinating study.
Quoting 127. 62901IL:
PUT THAT THING BACK WHERE IT CAME FROM, OR SO HELP ME!!!


HUH?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with a low
pressure system in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Quoting 127. 62901IL:

PUT THAT THING BACK WHERE IT CAME FROM, OR SO HELP ME!!!



Quoting 146. CycloneOz:

From Nova - Latest Episode

"Here we are above the valley where this dinosaur lived and you can see in the cliffs beautiful striations that depict CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE..."

More proof that the climate is ever-changing.

I'll never understand why people want to stop the climate from changing.




We are in the process of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed. There are consequences to climate change, especially a continued rapid climate change. Some people don't care for those consequences. Others are in denial or oblivious.
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


We are in the process of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed. There are consequences to climate change, especially a continued rapid climate change. Some people don't care for those consequences. Others are in denial or oblivious.


I am not seeing any evidence that "we are in the process of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed."

Not one bit of evidence.

I suggest that if the climate rapidly changes here on Earth, it is due to the Sun.
154. 882MB

New FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect until Saturday morning, soils are already saturated any heavy rain will, cause rapid river rises, and creeks, also to mention some places are still flooded. We had one day today without rains, so watches were cancelled, but with the most recent runs of the GFS and the satellite and radar loops shows it all. I'm glad with the NWS issuing a FLASH FLOOD WATCH, due to passed heavy rains, and with this new cluster of Thunderstorms moving in from the SW to the NE, draws attention, what a lightning show, also we have storms developing over east PR, please drive with caution especially around low lying areas and creek's. Remember ''TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN'. Have a safe night.
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



wash don't laugh too loud

there could be a surprise coming a really big surprise
GFS generally does better with these larger features, as does CMC. I'd suspect tha timing more than any thing else ....
Quoting 143. paleodrought:

When I see warm ave tempreture predictions for my area (New Mexico) for the entirety of this winter, that means dry weather as well! I don't have any data to back this up just my feeling on it. Sure I would happily settle for northerm NM getting good rain this winter if snow is out of the equation entirely, however the chances for that are a raindrop's chance in hell, its going to be another hellishly dry winter for Northern New Mexico and as the years go by it will be more and more clear New Mexico is in a mega drought that could last hundreds of years and within 100 years it will look like Death Valley here!
Historical record [thinking Mesa Verde as an example] implies that drought cycles extended for long enough periods to force the SW peoples to uproot entire cultural groups and relocate to areas that were not as hard hit. I don't know about the 100 year drought, but certainly a 30-year cycle is not unprecedented in that area.
Quoting 145. QueensWreath:





The DC area has been like that off and on for as long as I can remember. Late 60s on. I remember crocus blooming in Jan during some of the most brutal winters and times when you could not plant til almost end of May when the winters were not so extreme. And all the variables in-between. The DC are is such a border state in more ways than one. I believe many state boundaries were influenced by weather and topography. Its a fascinating study.


I remember a 1967 warm spell, I think in late January, that got to the mid 60s for a week and over 70 a few days and brought out the crocuses. I was in third grade and not tracking weather yet. BTW winter 1966-67 got a lot of snow as did winter 1965-66. February 1976 produced a three week warm spell of comparable departure from normal to March 2012. But that was like April in February rather than May in March and did not bring out as much vegetation as the March 2012 heat did.


Winters are normally variable here.. that is true and it's hard to defend the argument "even more variable" without
a statistical investigation which I haven't done. I can state the results, more winterkill of more species than any year since 1994, a year when we had two intense record smashing arctic outbreaks. This year the arctic outbreaks were not singularly impressive but there were a lot of them (perhaps as opposed to just one that starts around Christmas
and breaks around mid March :-) ). And late Jan/early Feb is normal blooming time for crocus here. For these you need early cold to meet the chilling hour requirements before they'll bloom.

Bermudagrass though easily survived the 2013-14 winter here. In January 1977 it was virtually wiped out. (however the stuff grows like.. well a weed.. and will easily spread ten feet from a single surviving sprig in a growing season so
it only took until the summer of 1978 for it to recover. I was working as a laborer on a golf course at the time
and remember the wipeout and recovery)


more rain for the northeast tonight!
Quoting 153. CycloneOz:



I am not seeing any evidence that "we are in the process of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed."

Not one bit of evidence.

I suggest that if the climate rapidly changes here on Earth, it is due to the Sun.



What if I said I firmly believe that gravity doesn't exist, or that the earth is actually flat, and that the moon is made of cheese?

How is that any different?

Believe things that give good reason to believe in, otherwise you construct false realities in your life based on these ideas.
Quoting 162. Jedkins01:



What if I said I firmly believe that gravity doesn't exist, or that the earth is actually flat, and that the moon is made of cheese?

How is that any different?

Believe things that give good reason to believe in, otherwise you construct false realities in your life based on these ideas.


Got some rain heading our way Jed. Much needed at that.

164. jpsb
Quoting 155. DCSwithunderscores:



Probably looking a bit harder for such evidence would help you to find it. It might require some research on that topic. Maybe some on here can provide you with some evidence. Don't be fooled by the "it's the Sun" trick. Maybe you are looking at the wrong sources for evidence.




Awesome analysis in Dr. Masters' blog! So glad he is sharing this with everyone.
I will be the first to admit I do not understand everything.
We all have a different depth of understanding and am glad he is not 'talking down' to us!

First Europeans weathered the Ice Age

DNA recovered from the fossilized leg bone of a man who lived 36,000 years ago suggests early Europeans survived the Ice Age, researchers said Thursday.


Looks like both humans and the Earth are pretty robust when it comes to climate change.

But let's go ahead and take away liberty and wealth from everyone anyway even though its nice outside...just in case.
Quoting Jedkins01:



What if I said I firmly believe that gravity doesn't exist, or that the earth is actually flat, and that the moon is made of cheese?

How is that any different?

Believe things that give good reason to believe in, otherwise you construct false realities in your life based on these ideas.


False realities like the head of the Sierra Club, a guy named Brune, saying that we are in a "climate crisis?"

He's not only constructed his life around this false reality...he's getting rich off of it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't you have better things to do than try to stir the pot on here?


Got any suggestions to other activities I can participate in?
Quoting 166. CycloneOz:

First Europeans weathered the Ice Age

DNA recovered from the fossilized leg bone of a man who lived 36,000 years ago suggests early Europeans survived the Ice Age, researchers said Thursday.


Looks like both humans and the Earth are pretty robust when it comes to climate change.

But let's go ahead and take away liberty and wealth from everyone anyway even though its nice outside...just in case.
What happened to that dead horse gif we used to have in here?
Quoting 169. CycloneOz:



Got any suggestions to other activities I can participate in?
Finding the dead horse gif? It was kinda cute ....
Quoting BahaHurican:
What happened to that dead horse gif we used to have in here?


If only this topic was a dead horse, I'd be very happy.

But since it's not a dead horse, posting the gif would be premature.
No way...it's gonna rain in the west this winter :)
I find it funny that both the reg and par gfs keep wanting to show a coastal storm between friday to sunday 11/14-11/16.

18z reg -

18z par -

still wont give it any credence until we are within 3-5 days.
Quoting 162. Jedkins01:




What if I said I firmly believe that gravity doesn't exist, or that the earth is actually flat, and that the moon is made of cheese?

How is that any different?

Believe things that give good reason to believe in, otherwise you construct false realities in your life based on these ideas.


We have the proof in the link below:
Link

Suspicion is that the horse died of exhaustion from the perennial shortsightedness of the human race.
Quoting 133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I just think its going to become very winter like very soon and remain so till the first week of jan and the normal jan thaw event that occurs at that time as for any further out guess lets see how we make it to the end of dec first


New England saying
"If ice in November will bear a duck
there'll be nothing thereafter but slush and muck"


The GFS has been consistent about a persistent cold period in mid November for several days now even though that's way far out.

Best example of a bitter and extreme early winter that just fell apart was 1989-90. Accumulating snow in the DC metro area (actually down to Williamsburg VA where I was) Thanksgiving eve followed by one of the coldest Decembers of the past fifty years, followed by..
VERY mild January and February
Quoting Climate175:
Like how so? Do you think the polar jetstream and subtropical jetstream will merge together?
Our rain maker for this weekend is now on the move coming from Northern Mexico into South Texas coupled with a disturbance diving SE from the Northern Plains. Both pieces of energy should merge in the Gulf on Saturday.

Quoting 164. jpsb:








Is that an attempt at evidence that we are in the process of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed, in accordance with my suggestion in the comment that you are replying to?
Quoting 180. StormTrackerScott:

Our rain maker for this weekend is now on the move coming from Northern Mexico into South Texas coupled with a disturbance diving SE from the Northern Plains. Both pieces of energy should merge in the Gulf on Saturday.



I'm trying to find something, anything, to grasp onto here that portends some kind of hyper or even above normal type of event. It's just not happening with the synoptic pattern in place. No merger or superstorm...just scattered SHRA. Every NWS office in Florida agrees we see some scattered rain, some chance of an isolated clap of thunder or an inch+...and that's it. Unless you disagree with all the NWS forecasters.
Quoting 166. CycloneOz:

First Europeans weathered the Ice Age

DNA recovered from the fossilized leg bone of a man who lived 36,000 years ago suggests early Europeans survived the Ice Age, researchers said Thursday.


Looks like both humans and the Earth are pretty robust when it comes to climate change.

But let's go ahead and take away liberty and wealth from everyone anyway even though its nice outside...just in case.


Okay so avoiding extinction locally constitutes being robust. Avoiding extinction does no imply that the consequences of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed are going to be favorable. In any event, we would be leaving it in the opposite direction from an ice age. Being robust during an ice age does not logically imply being robust after a change in the opposite direction.
184. vis0
http://youtu.be/nTEXrS_6vEQ (for better size selection)(liked Mods img figured why not post motion)



Quoting 169. CycloneOz:



Got any suggestions to other activities I can participate in?
I want you to take a trip to the edge of the Greenland ice sheet in late aug 2015 put your hand upon it and then claim climate change does not exist
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2014
5:30 AM IST November 7 2014
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past twelve hours and lays centered over central Bay of Bengal near 14.1N 86.9E, about 750 km east southeast of Ongole, 560 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 730 km east northeast of Chennai.

It would move westwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast and weaken gradually into a Depression while reaching near the coast by Sunday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity is T2.0. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough. Estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 1001 hPa.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over the Bay of Bengal between 11.5N to 17.0N and 84.5E to 89.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature -90C.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS 14.1N 86.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
48 HRS 14.1N 85.1E- 30 knots (Deep Depression)
72 HRS: 14.1N 82.0E - 25 knots (Depression)

Additional Information
====================
The sea surface temperature around the region of system is 29-30C. However it is 28C over Andhra Pradesh, the ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around the system. However it is less than 50 kj/cm2 over parts of west central bay. The vertical wind shear is about 15-25 knots (moderate to high) around the system center. The low level relative vorticity has remained same during past 12 hours however the low level convergence and upper level divergence have decreased during this period.. The anti-cyclonic circulation lies to the north of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 170n. Thus the system lies to the south of ridge and hence will be steered westwards
187. jpsb
Quoting 181. DCSwithunderscores:



Is that an attempt at evidence that we are in the process of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed, in accordance with my suggestion in the comment that you are replying to?

Yall renamed Global Warming to Climate Change, however the "theory" is that man produced CO2 is causing the Earth climate to under go runaway warming. The evidence I submitted is very large amounts of ice and snow that is not suppose to be there.
Quoting 163. StormTrackerScott:



Got some rain heading our way Jed. Much needed at that.




It looks like you guys will be getting plenty, but we'll be staying dry. Ever since that crazy day of severe weather and 4.7 inches of rain, we have not had any rain at all here. My rain gauge is approaching 3 weeks straight without rain. Looks like it could easily make it another week.

At least my hometown down there will be getting plenty. You guys need it more though in general, since we have higher rainfall averages here in the Spring and winter in this area. Looks like some decent short wave energy will be moving through that area, which will be the lifting needed for a good rain event.
Quoting 182. CosmicEvents:


I'm trying to find something, anything, to grasp onto here that portends some kind of hyper or even above normal type of event. It's just not happening with the synoptic pattern in place. No merger or superstorm...just scattered SHRA. Every NWS office in Florida agrees we see some scattered rain, some chance of an isolated clap of thunder or an inch ...and that's it. Unless you disagree with all the NWS forecasters.

Nobody said anything about a superstorm, just short wave energy providing plenty of lift for widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. Doesn't appear there will be any parameters for major lightning producers or severe weather. Just mainly widespread steady rain with embedded convection and maybe a few thunderstorms in the strongest convective cells.

I think people are just happy because late October through November, and then April into the first half of May are often the driest periods in Central Florida. So a good heavy rain event in early November is always welcome
Quoting 187. jpsb:


Yall renamed Global Warming to Climate Change, however the "theory" is that man produced CO2 is causing the Earth climate to under go runaway warming. The evidence I submitted is very large amounts of ice and snow that is not suppose to be there.
actually its doing exactly as it suppose to do with a thinner ice level it covers a larger area but melts fast in the returning warm season also cold air displacement can and will occur as the cold air tries to settle or even create a false point of cold dense airmasses over regions not accustom to extreme cold ie wandering polar vorts deep over southern Canada northern us regions
Quoting 187. jpsb:


Yall renamed Global Warming to Climate Change, however the "theory" is that man produced CO2 is causing the Earth climate to under go runaway warming. The evidence I submitted is very large amounts of ice and snow that is not suppose to be there.


Okay, so your earlier comment was off topic of the comment that it was a reply to. Another commenter apparently wasn't aware of evidence that we are in the process of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed, and I was commenting about learning of such evidence.

The terms "global warming" and "climate change" have each been used for decades and they mean different things. The only known case in which the choice of those terms was changed for political reasons was in about 2001 after Republican strategist Frank Luntz advised Bush to use the latter term instead of the former because he thought that the latter sounded less bad, and Bush obliged. What is your source for your claim that "Yall renamed Global Warming to Climate Change", and when do you think that this happened?
Quoting Jedkins01:


It looks like you guys will be getting plenty, but we'll be staying dry. Ever since that crazy day of severe weather and 4.7 inches of rain, we have not had any rain at all here. My rain gauge is approaching 3 weeks straight without rain. Looks like it could easily make it another week.

At least my hometown down there will be getting plenty. You guys need it more though in general, since we have higher rainfall averages here in the Spring and winter in this area. Looks like some decent short wave energy will be moving through that area, which will be the lifting needed for a good rain event.
I'm not buying that shortwave as being as good a kicker for this Florida rain as the models show. The front today came though completely dry and there's a lot of dry air filtering in behind the wind shift boundary. It's 57 here with a dewpoint of 46, very low for this time of night. I think the shortwave also comes through as mostly dry and whatever energy comes out of Mexico isn't going to have much to work with. The models have been overly wet with every system in the last month and I think this will be the same. Looks good until 12 hours before it's supposed to happen - then nothing happens. :-)
193. jpsb
Quoting 190. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

actually its doing exactly as it suppose to do with a thinner ice level it covers a larger area but melts fast in the returning warm season also cold air displacement can and will occur as the cold air tries to settle or even create a false point of cold dense airmasses over regions not accustom to extreme cold ie wandering polar vorts deep over southern Canada northern us regions



Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?Yup the Arctic ice (and snow) is doing exactly what your team predicted. /s
Quoting 189. Jedkins01:


Nobody said anything about a superstorm, just short wave energy providing plenty of lift for widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. Doesn't appear there will be any parameters for major lightning producers or severe weather. Just mainly widespread steady rain with embedded convection and maybe a few thunderstorms in the strongest convective cells.

I think people are just happy because late October through November, and then April into the first half of May are often the driest periods in Central Florida. So a good heavy rain event in early November is always welcome
Nothing wrong with a good heavy rain event......I just don't see any NWS office from Tampa to Melbourne to Miami that's forecasting such a heavy event. My son called tonite asking what the expected weather was on Sunday for outdoor event in Orlando.
.
A. Expect a heavy rain event or at least steady rain all day with bouts of "heavy weather"
B. Expect some rain, probably less than 1/4", but it's Florida, you never know
.
What would you tell your son, A or B?
Did y'all forget about this storm already?

"SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 515 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2014 AKZ155-161-181-185-187-191-071600- KUSKOKWIM DELTA-BRISTOL BAY-ALASKA PENINSULA-EASTERN ALEUTIANS- CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-WESTERN ALEUTIANS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND... KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...PILOT POINT...COLD BAY... SAND POINT...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI...ATKA AND ADAK... SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA 515 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2014 ...HIGH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTAINS AND BERING SEA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HIGH SEAS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO SATURDAY. .WEATHER BRIEFING. A SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...FORMALLY TYPHOON NURI...ORGANIZES QUICKLY AS IS MOVES FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS CENTER IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT TAKES ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK. .WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A LARGE SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH VERY WINDY...ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW WARNING LEVELS AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD 35 TO 45 FEET OR POSSIBLY HIGHER...FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED MARINE VESSELS. .PRIBILOF ISLANDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AT THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. SEAS AS HIGH AS 22 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL CAUSE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED MARINE VESSELS. .SOUTHWEST ALASKA. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND COASTAL EROSION MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH SEAS FROM THE SOUTHERN BERING REACH SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST COAST SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR UPDATES. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THERE IS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR MARINE VHF, NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE ALASKA WEATHER SHOW AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES...AS WELL AS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE. $$
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


Okay, so your earlier comment was off topic of the comment that it was a reply to. Another commenter apparently wasn't aware of evidence that we are in the process of leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed, and I was commenting about learning of such evidence.

The terms "global warming" and "climate change" have each been used for decades and they mean different things. The only known case in which the choice of those terms was changed for political reasons was in about 2001 after Republican strategist Frank Luntz advised Bush to use the latter term instead of the former because he thought that the latter sounded better, and Bush obliged. What is your source for your claim that "Yall renamed Global Warming to Climate Change", and when do you think that this happened?
You're going to have to provide a source for the Bush story. That's one I haven't heard before.

Officially, climate change and global warming are not interchangeable. According to this NASA site, this is how the terms are supposed to be used:

Global warming: the increase in Earth's average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.

Climate change: a long-term change in the Earth's climate, or of a region on Earth.

That makes sense to me since we know that the globe is getting warmer but the globe's climate is also changing in ways that have nothing to do directly with the warming earth. I think trying to set one term or the other as a straw man on the part of people who believe that everything that's happening is not influenced by humans is a good way to divert attention from the fact that both describe different aspects of human caused change as well as natural climate variation.
Quoting 195. jackzig:



When I read comments like those made by DCSwithunderscores I just want to laugh. These people will reach for any straw to back up their totally uninformed positions. We can all differ about politics, the music we enjoy, the food we like, but you just can't deny science. The sun doesn't revolve around the earth, man and dinosaurs did not coexist, and the CO2 we are pumping into the atmosphere is warming the earth. If you believe otherwise you need to be reeducated.


It seems that you misunderstood my comment.
Quoting 194. CosmicEvents:

Nothing wrong with a good heavy rain event......I just don't see any NWS office from Tampa to Melbourne to Miami that's forecasting such a heavy event. My son called tonite asking what the expected weather was on Sunday for outdoor event in Orlando.
.
A. Expect a heavy rain event or at least steady rain all day with bouts of "heavy weather"
B. Expect some rain, probably less than 1/4", but it's Florida, you never know
.
What would you tell your son, A or B?


Probably B because it's currently at a 50% chance of rain for orlando on sunday and because i've been in sudden rainstorms while visiting WDW as a kid. Actually, i was in florida during the groundhog day tornado outbreak of 2007. I remember not being able to sleep at all because of all the lightning and thunder.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Nothing wrong with a good heavy rain event......I just don't see any NWS office from Tampa to Melbourne to Miami that's forecasting such a heavy event. My son called tonite asking what the expected weather was on Sunday for outdoor event in Orlando.
.
A. Expect a heavy rain event or at least steady rain all day with bouts of "heavy weather"
B. Expect some rain, probably less than 1/4", but it's Florida, you never know
.
What would you tell your son, A or B?
Given that the Official NWS forecast for Orlando is:

Sunday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

even "B" might be a stretch but it's likely to be a lot closer than "A". I had a 70% chance of rain today up until the 0300 update, when it dropped to 50%, and the actual rain was zero. According to Melbourne, it's Saturday night, with a 70% chance of rain that has the best odds for the whole weekend. 50% rain chances and the possibility of thunderstorm is enough for me to make sure the car windows are rolled up the night before. :-)
What would you tell your son, A or B?

B!
Quoting 197. sar2401:

You're going to have to provide a source for the Bush story. That's one I haven't heard before.

Officially, climate change and global warming are not interchangeable. According to this NASA site, this is how the terms are supposed to be used:

Global warming: the increase in Earth’s average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.

Climate change: a long-term change in the Earth’s climate, or of a region on Earth.

That makes sense to me since we know that globe is getting warmer but the globe's climate is also changing in ways that have nothing to do directly with the warming earth. I think trying to set one term or the other as a straw man on the part of people who believe that everything that's happening is not influenced by humans is a good way to divert attention from the fact that both describe different aspects of human caused change as well as natural climate variation.


It's in the CONCLUSION: REDEFINING LABELS section of this document:

Link
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Did y'all forget about this storm already?

"SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 515 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2014 AKZ155-161-181-185-187-191-071600- KUSKOKWIM DELTA-BRISTOL BAY-ALASKA PENINSULA-EASTERN ALEUTIANS- CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-WESTERN ALEUTIANS-

I know I haven't forgotten but there's not much to say about it right now. This is going to be more of a meteorological event than a weather event. The big deal will be to see how low the pressure goes and if it sets a new non-tropical record. The bad weather itself is going to affect a few hundred people at most. Even though this storm is worse than many, the people who will be affected are used to dealing with really bad weather every winter. We're just lucky that the storm will be filling and getting (relatively) less severe before it moves east toward more populated areas.
Quoting 193. jpsb:




Arctic Sea Ice Gone in Summer Within Five Years?Yup the Arctic ice (and snow) is doing exactly what your team predicted. /s


Are you suggesting that there is not a downward trend in September Arctic sea ice volume?
Quoting 203. sar2401:


I know I haven't forgotten but there's not much to say about it right now. This is going to be more of a meteorological event than a weather event. The big deal will be to see how low the pressure goes and if it sets a new non-tropical record. The bad weather itself is going to affect a few hundred people at most. Even though this storm is worse than many, the people who will be affected are used to dealing with really bad weather every winter. We're just lucky that the storm will be filling and getting (relatively) less severe before it moves east toward more populated areas.


At least it is in a remote area. There are a couple of military bases and a handful of villages on the aleutian islands. Can you imagine 35 to 45 ft. swells on the east coast? Obviously it would wreak havoc, but even doc was talking about ex-nuri. I mean, 924 mb is quite impressive so obviously it's a meteorological event. Correct me if i'm wrong, but the previous record for alaska was 926 mb in dutch harbor in 1977.
206. jpsb
Quoting 204. DCSwithunderscores:



Are you suggesting that there is not a downward trend in Arctic sea ice volume?


I just report the facts, according to this Arctic sea ice is doing fine.
Quoting 203. sar2401:


I know I haven't forgotten but there's not much to say about it right now. This is going to be more of a meteorological event than a weather event. The big deal will be to see how low the pressure goes and if it sets a new non-tropical record. The bad weather itself is going to affect a few hundred people at most. Even though this storm is worse than many, the people who will be affected are used to dealing with really bad weather every winter. We're just lucky that the storm will be filling and getting (relatively) less severe before it moves east toward more populated areas.


In essence, it's something we can all geek out about while breathing a sigh of relief knowing that's in a largely remote area with very few people affected (as least, while it's a strong non-tropical low).
Quoting 189. Jedkins01:

Nobody said anything about a superstorm, just short wave energy providing plenty of lift for widespread rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. Doesn't appear there will be any parameters for major lightning producers or severe weather. Just mainly widespread steady rain with embedded convection and maybe a few thunderstorms in the strongest convective cells.

I think people are just happy because late October through November, and then April into the first half of May are often the driest periods in Central Florida. So a good heavy rain event in early November is always welcome


Thank you Jed. I said it looks we we might get a decent rain and one guy takes it as something different. If the models continue to suggest we will get 1" to 2" then I will be happy as it appears more is on the way later next week.

There's a big facility in Akutan, in the Aleutians...700 miles or so EAST! of where the North Pacific storm is headed. The low looks like it'll shoot the Bering gap and then plunge way south, and East, towards the NW Carib ironically.
.
Trident Seafoods, the largest processing plant in North America, is located in Akutan on a volcanic Aleutian Island 1,700 miles north of Seattle and 35 miles from Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. The plant processes pollock, crab, halibut, surimi and other species harvested from the Bering Sea. Do a youtube search for Akutan if interested.
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


It's in the CONCLUSION: REDEFINING LABELS section of this document:

Link
It's not clear to me from that report (of which only a few pages are shown) how much it influenced George W to use Climate Change instead of Global Warming but, considering it was written in 2002, it really wasn't far off the mark. Climate change as term really only entered public consciousness in the mid-90's, as more scientists did more studies showing that warming was only part of the larger problem. I realize that Luntz's position papers in general were trying to help Republicans get elected by using the "right" words but I suspect Mother Jones could find the same kind of thing for Democrats if they really tried. I know I was much more of a skeptic in 2002 than I am today, so I don't see Luntz's conclusions as that out of line with what most people really were thinking.
Quoting 206. jpsb:



I just report the facts, according to this Arctic sea ice is doing fine.


I think that "doing fine" is more of a subjective interpretation than a fact. Are you aware of the fact that the trend in September arctic sea ice volume is one of decrease, and of the fact that the September volume this year was less than half of what it was 35 years ago?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
There's a big facility in Akutan, in the Aleutians...700 miles or so EAST! of where the North Pacific storm is headed. The low looks like it'll shoot the Bering gap and then plunge way south, and East, towards the NW Carib ironically.
.
Trident Seafoods, the largest processing plant in North America, is located in Akutan on a volcanic Aleutian Island 1,700 miles north of Seattle and 35 miles from Unalaska/Dutch Harbor. The plant processes pollock, crab, halibut, surimi and other species harvested from the Bering Sea. Do a youtube search for Akutan if interested.
Right, and the storm is going to stay just far enough west that the effects from Adak to Akutan to Unalaska are going to be a bad storm not anywhere near as bad as the western tip of the Aleutians. It looks to me like the low is going to get trapped in the Bering Sea until about Wednesday and, except for it moving further east after that, I don't have a clue what happens next.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


In essence, it's something we can all geek out about while breathing a sigh of relief knowing that's in a largely remote area with very few people affected (as least, while it's a strong non-tropical low).
Pretty much, for right now. That could all change by the end of next week if it starts to send another Arctic blast down to us. If it hangs around in the Bering Sea long enough, it's going to lose every trace of tropical air and just be a big cold low. That could be bad for the lower 48 compared to the low moving east and south sooner and not getting trapped in the Bering Sea. What make Nuri/ex-Nuri so interesting is the shear size and strength of the storm and how long it has held together. What happens next should be at least as interesting.
Quoting 210. sar2401:

It's not clear to me from that report (of which only a few pages are shown) how much it influenced George W to use Climate Change instead of Global Warming but, considering it was written in 2002, it really wasn't far off the mark. Climate change as term really only entered public consciousness in the mid-90's, as more scientists did more studies showing that warming was only part of the larger problem. I realize that Luntz's position papers in general were trying to help Republicans get elected by using the "right" words but I suspect Mother Jones could find the same kind of thing for Democrats if they really tried. I know I was much more of a skeptic in 2002 than I am today, so I don't see Luntz's conclusions as that out of line with what most people really were thinking.


According to this article

Link

"The phrase 'global warming' appeared frequently in President Bush's speeches in 2001, but decreased to almost nothing during 2002, when the memo was produced."

There's more about the usage of the terms at Skeptical Science:

Link
Quoting 206. jpsb:



I just report the facts, according to this Arctic sea ice is doing fine.


Quoting TimTheWxMan:


At least it is in a remote area. There are a couple of military bases and a handful of villages on the aleutian islands. Can you imagine 35 to 45 ft. swells on the east coast? Obviously it would wreak havoc, but even doc was talking about ex-nuri. I mean, 924 mb is quite impressive so obviously it's a meteorological event. Correct me if i'm wrong, but the previous record for alaska was 926 mb in dutch harbor in 1977.
That's correct, but a 926 mb low over Dutch Harbor is a much bigger deal in terms of it affecting humans than a 924 mb low out in the Bering Sea. The Aleutian Islands are very linear, with the distance being about 1200 miles from Amchitka at the western end of the chain to the mainland, east of Dutch Harbor. This is about the same airline miles as from Los Angeles to Dallas. Dutch Harbor is representative of the more populated eastern part of the chain, so not having the low develop there is a good thing. I'm not saying this is not going to be a bad storm for the relatively few people that will be affected but, if you lived in Dallas, the weather in Los Angeles may be of interest but it's impossible for both cities to be affect by the same storm at the same time. That's the situation with this storm in the Aleutians.
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


According to this article

Link

"The phrase 'global warming' appeared frequently in President Bush's speeches in 2001, but decreased to almost nothing during 2002, when the memo was produced."

There's more about the usage of the terms at Skeptical Science:

Link
Oh, I'm not saying that that didn't happen. What I'm saying is that the term "climate change" was entering public's (not scientist's) mind a lot more after 2000 than before. Luntz was certainly advocating for the use of the term over global warming but even the graph at SS confirms that the GW/CC line crossed in mid-1997 and CC has outpaced GW by a slim but apparent margin ever since.
Quoting 206. jpsb:



I just report the facts, according to this Arctic sea ice is doing fine.


No, you report distortions. The arctic ice hasn't been "doing fine" for quite some time now.




Whatever does develop in the Gulf this weekend is not going to help with this -

U.S. Coast Guard, Air Force seek missing pilot in Gulf of Mexico

MIAMI (Reuters) - The United State Air Force and Coast Guard crews searched the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday for a missing pilot whose F-16 fighter jet lost contact with its base during a routine training mission, officials said.

The aircraft, based out of Tyndall Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle, was believed to have crashed about 57 miles south of Panama City, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

No wreckage has been located, the Air Force said.

"While the aircraft has not been found, search teams are working under the assumption that the aircraft has crashed into the water," according to a news release from Tyndall Air Force base.

"The rescue of our Airman is our top priority," Col. Mark O'Laughlin, 325 Fighter Wing Vice Commander was quoted as saying in the statement.
Link
Red alert Rome braced for 'water bombs'

With the civil protection department expecting torrential rain to lead to "water bombs", the authorities decided to close schools and monuments in Rome Thursday. Thursday. Rome Prefect Giuseppe Pecoraro earlier said that the weather forecasts were "unprecedented" and suggested Romans avoid leaving their homes.

Link
Quoting 204. DCSwithunderscores:



Are you suggesting that there is not a downward trend in September Arctic sea ice volume?


No, he's telling us he lacks reading comprehension. From the NG article:

One scientist even speculated that summer sea ice could be gone in five years.

He's trying to claim that because one scientist that was idly speculating about a possibility that it was somehow a scientifically accurate and peer reviewed statement that represented all 20,000+ researchers and 100+ years of science.

Idle speculation is not peer-reviewed science.

The earliest validated research I've seen on an ice-free arctic summer is 2030. Earlier research indicated 2040-2050.
Quoting 221. ColoradoBob1:

Red alert Rome braced for 'water bombs'

With the civil protection department expecting torrential rain to lead to "water bombs", the authorities decided to close schools and monuments in Rome Thursday. Thursday. Rome Prefect Giuseppe Pecoraro earlier said that the weather forecasts were "unprecedented" and suggested Romans avoid leaving their homes.

Link


first visible sat shot

Biggest Brazil City Desperate for Water in Drought

Brazil is approaching the December start of its summer rainy season with its water cupboard nearly bare. More than 10 million people across Sao Paulo state, Brazil's most populous and the nation's economic engine, have been forced to cut water use over the past six months. A reservoir used by Itu has fallen to 2 percent capacity and, because its system relies on rain and groundwater rather than rivers, the city is suffering more than others.

In Itu, desperation is taking hold. Police escort water trucks to keep them from being hijacked by armed men. Residents demanding restoration of tap water have staged violent protests.


Link


Record sea surface temperatures in October says UK MetOffice data
Oceans continue to warm with the latest data from the UK Metoffice HADSST3 showing October 2014 had record warm sea surface temperatures. Over 90 per cent of the heat of global warming is being absorbed by the oceans.

Link
What ever happened to the panic of the day known as "The hole in the ozone layer?" Did it fix itself?

No it didn't fix it's self -

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (a protocol to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer) is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of numerous substances that are responsible for ozone depletion. It was agreed on September 16, 1987, and entered into force on January 1, 1989,

Link
Quoting 224. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



first visible sat shot



Note the Sea Surface Temperatures near Italy -
Link
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


Record sea surface temperatures in October says UK MetOffice data
Oceans continue to warm with the latest data from the UK Metoffice HADSST3 showing October 2014 had record warm sea surface temperatures. Over 90 per cent of the heat of global warming is being absorbed by the oceans.


Over 90% of the heat from "GLOBAL WARMING" is being absorbed by the oceans.

Question: What percent of the heat generated by the sun is absorbed by the oceans?
236. DDR
Good morning
Scattered heavy rain showers here in Trinidad as the rainy season climbs to its secondary peak in late November,just over 3 inches in the last 24 hours,also its been very hot in the deep tropics, 2-3 degrees celcius above average,at least in the NE part of South america.
Good morning.

A rainy Friday thru possibly Saturday is on tap for PR and adjacent islands as a Surface Trough combines with an Upper Low.

UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF HAITI AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
JUST WEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.
CONSEQUENTLY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL REGION. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUED TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE CUTOFF LOW.

Skype
Quoting 221. ColoradoBob1:

Red alert Rome braced for 'water bombs'

With the civil protection department expecting torrential rain to lead to "water bombs", the authorities decided to close schools and monuments in Rome Thursday. Thursday. Rome Prefect Giuseppe Pecoraro earlier said that the weather forecasts were "unprecedented" and suggested Romans avoid leaving their homes.

Link


Hi folks. Little European update, before I have to go back to work for a while:

Rainfall in Italy yesterday (24h). Rome is at the northern side of the purple zone.




Nevertheless, it obviously could have been worse:
Flood alert disrupts Rome
07.11.2014
Repubblica station closed and traffic chaos as city downgrades weather alert
Schools in Rome reopened on 7 November after a "code red" weather alert the day before prompted the city to order their closure as well as advise motorists to drive only if absolutely necessary.
The weather alert has now been downgraded to "code orange" but traffic in Rome on 7 November is heavy as a result of floods, fallen trees and closed streets.
The city's Repubblica metro station is closed due to flooding while there are numerous delays on north-bound trains, including the train service to Fiumicino airport. Despite the severe warnings, the deluge was nowhere near as bad as many expected.
However city officials have defended their actions amid claims of over-reacting. Rome's police prefect Giuseppe Pecoraro described the measures as "essential" while the capital's environment councillor Estella Marino justified the schools' closure, stating that the peak of rainfall fell during the schools' normal opening time.
Rome's mayor Ignazio Marino faced criticism for leaving the capital for the day to attend a meeting in Milan.


--------------------

Current infrared loop (saved) shows nicely the cut-off low south of Sicily (at the bottom of the frame).


Here's a map as back up:



Current sea surface temps in the area are around 24C (75F): a bit too low to trigger a "Medicane", I guess.

--------------------------------

BBC weather video with dire pictures from flooding in Tuscany (Carrara), and - grrr - once again the harvest in the vineyards is affected. Moreover: next low will hit the same regions in the western Mediterranean next week.

Italy and Poland pounded by storms
BBC weather video, 6 November 2014 Last updated at 18:41 Help
Tuscany towns are swamped by massive rainfall from the violent storms which had previously brought floods to southern France. Meanwhile fierce winds ripped roofs from buildings and toppled trees in Poland.
Alex Deakin reports for BBC World
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A chillier 42 degrees in west central Louisiana with highs later on only in the low 60s.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, creamy oatmeal with fresh blueberries, cheesy grits and shrimp, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Good morning

A very rainy, gloomy and dark 79 with not much chance for improvement here on the island today.

Not a good day for the cruise ship arriving right now Link

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

(Still hobbling around with crutches and/or cane depending on how I'm feeling)
your job forced you to get a flu shot? acc/ to this scientist cdc have understated the dangers and overstated it effectivenss. http://yournewswire.com/johns-hopkins-scientist-re veals-shocking-report-on-flu-vaccines/
244. beell


For later, perhaps.
Past 6 hourly METAR obs from:
Shemya, (Eareckson Air Station) PASY
Adak Naval Air Station, PADK
Dutch Harbor, (Madsen Airport) PADU
some of these obs may be automated w/no QC
aviationweather.gov

METAR - Meteorological Aviation Report

Storm surge in Piran, Slovenia yesterday as a result of strong southerlies pushing Adriatic sea inland. Source: Piraninfo

More see Severe Weather Europe which shows that now the northerwestern Balkans suffer torrential rains esp. Slovenia.
246. MahFL
Quoting 104. VAbeachhurricanes:



Are the deadliest catch guys out there right now? Would love to see this storm on an episode.


These shows are taped months beforehand.
Quoting MahFL:


These shows are taped months beforehand.


The King Crab season begins every year on October 15th and lasts two to four weeks.

This is every possibility that there are some boats still out there, but not for long.

They'll shelter.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Looks like the US government is going to be slowing down on their climate change business for at least a few years.

Good thing, too. The US government cannot stop planetary climate change with taxation and regulation.
Hopefully other Super powers like China, Europe,Brazil and other more responsible government won't follow their steps.Earth is our home and we are in charged to keep it clean for generations to come.
Quoting CycloneOz:


The King Crab season begins every year on October 15th and lasts two to four weeks.

This is every possibility that there are some boats still out there, but not for long.

They'll shelter.



The storm's path includes a busy maritime route for cargo ships traveling to or from Asia, as well as the red king crab fishery made famous by the Discovery Channel reality show "Deadliest Catch." Vessels are finding protected harbors or moving away from the path, according to Brett Farrell with the Marine Exchange of Alaska, a nonprofit maritime organization. No one in their right mind would stick around that area, he said.

With most of the red king crab quota caught, the season is winding down, said Mark Gleason, executive director of the Seattle-based trade association Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers. He said the coming storm is huge but the fleet has decades of experience dealing with severe conditions. Crews will hunker down and wait out the weather, then move on and do the job that needs to be done, he said.

Link
250. MahFL
Nuri is moving pretty fast now.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico,
has changed little in organization during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development of this disturbance over the next several days while it
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Al Roker broke out the term "Polar Vortex" this morning.
I wonder how many times this term will be used before the season is over?

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Al Roker broke out the term "Polar Vortex" this morning.
I wonder how many times this term will be used before the season is over?



He may have done so incorrectly at this time.

There is very cold weather on the other side of the Arctic right now...in Siberia.

The cold weather from there is going to slide over the top and down upon North America shortly.

The correct term being used to describe this is "polar leak."
The coldest air of the season across the central and southern Plains next week.
Possible MidAtlantic snow -next weekend

Rain moves in Saturday afternoon and some could be heavy at times.

4pm


7pm
Today marks one year since Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in the Philippines. What an unbelievably strong storm. We don't know exactly how strong it was, unforunately, but I'm confident no storm we've ever observed has matched Haiyan's intensity as it made landfall in the Philippines. It's in a league of its own.

WRF rainfall accum thru 60hrs.

Quoting CycloneOz:


He may have done so incorrectly at this time.

There is very cold weather on the other side of the Arctic right now...in Siberia.

The cold weather from there is going to slide over the top and down upon North America shortly.

The correct term being used to describe this is "polar leak."


It seems that every cold front associated with continental Arctic/Polar air will be given the term "Polar Vortex" from now on.





GFS seems to be backing off on rain totals for the I-4 corridor. Sigh.....
Rainy pattern across FL appears to be underway. The Euro has a December 1997 set up taking shape across FL and this may need to be watched later next week into next weekend. Wettest pattern I've seen for FL in November since 2009 which was an El-Nino year.

Quoting 257. StormTrackerScott:

Rain moves in Saturday afternoon and some could be heavy at times.

4pm


7pm



The GFS model you've been posting for the past 3-4 days seems to be backing off on the rain for both Tampa and Orlando. I see you've now chosen another model to go with, not surprising.
Quoting 263. StormTrackerScott:

Rain pattern across FL appears to be underway. The Euro has a December 1997 set up taking shape across FL and this may need to be watched later next week into next weekend. Wettest pattern I've seen for FL in November since 2009 which was an El-Nino year.




Scott is mentioning lots of rain for FL, everybody can drink now!


Dry air about to move in ahead of the low pushing eastward late Saturday into Sunday. I really hope the Tampa area picks up some good rains from this, as local mets say we will dry out again after that. We'll take what we can get in November, a very dry month historically. There was actually a light sprinkle during my morning run today, but not enough to register anything in my rain gauge.
Quoting 265. tampabaymatt:



Scott is mentioning lots of rain for FL, everybody can drink now!


What you come to a weather blog and you don't like rain?

Quoting 264. tampabaymatt:



The GFS model you've been posting for the past 3-4 days seems to be backing off on the rain for both Tampa and Orlando. I see you've now chosen another model to go with, not surprising.


NAM


Quoting 267. StormTrackerScott:



What you come to a weather blog and you don't like rain?




I hope I'm wrong and will gladly eat crow if so, but I expect the Tampa reporting station will have no more than half an inch by Monday morning from this. Models seem to be trending south with the low. This seems to make sense with the front pushing down and expected to stall around the Ft. Myers area.
SOI still crashing and nino 3.4 is over 0.7C now.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 07 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -11.4
Average for last 90 days -8.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -19.2



7-day forecast for Tampa Bay area
Quoting 269. tampabaymatt:



I hope I'm wrong and will gladly eat crow if so, but I expect the Tampa reporting station will have no more than half an inch by Monday morning from this. Models seem to be trending south with the low. This seems to make sense with the front pushing down and expected to stall around the Ft. Myers area.


The Hi Res models are typically very accurate with in 60hrs so we will see.
Rain bucket (Vantage Vue) is dusty and hasn't seen rain in quite some time.
Ready to add up the weekend rains.

NWS is forecasting .7"- 1.25" for my area, Fort Myers (with higher amounts in thunderstorms) from late Saturday - Sunday.
I'll take that if it happens. That would be enough to make the plants happy.




Quoting 256. Sfloridacat5:

Possible MidAtlantic snow -next weekend


Hahahahaha!!
From Miami NWS...

BEYOND THIS EVENING IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE INCREASE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING
MORE IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE ON A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF EVERGLADES CITY TO THE MIAMI-
DADE/BROWARD COUNTY LINE AT 18Z LIFTING NORTH BY 00Z TO SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RAPID DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH PWAT
INCREASING TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO HAVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEEING THUNDER WILL BE FROM EXTREME NORTHERN MIAMI-
DADE AND POINTS NORTH INCLUDING COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.

THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THE PWAT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1.8- 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. AS
THE LOW CROSSES THE REGION, THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH AS
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE BECOMING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. OF COURSE, THIS
WILL ALL DEPEND ON LOCAL MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENTS THAT SET UP WHICH
ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST MUCH IN ADVANCE. MUCH DRIER AIR
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THIS
WILL BE LATE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND WITH THE AIRMASS
ORIGINATING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH, SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
Quoting 263. StormTrackerScott:

Rain pattern across FL appears to be underway. The Euro has a December 1997 set up taking shape across FL and this may need to be watched later next week into next weekend. Wettest pattern I've seen for FL in November since 2009 which was an El-Nino year.




November 2009 was below average for much of the state.




November of last year (2013) was quite wet across a good portion of the northern peninsula along with extreme south FL and the keys. I benefited with 191% of average November rainfall.




Information posted is courtesy of the Florida Climate Center
Quoting 275. GeoffreyWPB:

From Miami NWS...

BEYOND THIS EVENING IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL FORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE INCREASE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING
MORE IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL BE ON A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF EVERGLADES CITY TO THE MIAMI-
DADE/BROWARD COUNTY LINE AT 18Z LIFTING NORTH BY 00Z TO SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RAPID DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH PWAT
INCREASING TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO HAVE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEEING THUNDER WILL BE FROM EXTREME NORTHERN MIAMI-
DADE AND POINTS NORTH INCLUDING COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.

THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHWEST COAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THE PWAT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
1.8- 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. AS
THE LOW CROSSES THE REGION, THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH AS
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE BECOMING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. OF COURSE, THIS
WILL ALL DEPEND ON LOCAL MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENTS THAT SET UP WHICH
ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST MUCH IN ADVANCE. MUCH DRIER AIR
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THIS
WILL BE LATE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND WITH THE AIRMASS
ORIGINATING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH, SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.


Ugh, kind of what I was alluding to. The heavy rain action is trending well south of central FL.
Quoting 277. StAugustineFL:



November 2009 was below average for much of the state.




November of last year (2013) was quite wet across a good portion of the northern peninsula along with extreme south FL and the keys.




Information posted is courtesy of the Florida Climate Center


It was bone dry here in Orlando last November. Later in November 2009 is did turn wet especially into December. Looking at the Ensembles on both the Euro & GFS it appears many locations across the FL Penisula could double what is considered average rainfall in November. Orlando averages 2.5" roughly and I can see us getting 3" to 4" this month given this set up the rest of the month.
The low in the Sicily channel now, nice development in the last hours.

Quoting 272. StormTrackerScott:



The Hi Res models are typically very accurate with in 60hrs so we will see.


Big change from when I was a student. But I'm too young to remember when there were NO models (late 50s) and no primitive equations models (mid 60s). In 1978 we had the hemispheric PE run out to 48 hours with a barotropic extension to 72, and the LFM which was a regional version of the PE with better horizontal resolution.. both were grid point models. The GFS replaced the PE in August 1980, almost the same model but it uses fourier transforms rather than finite differences to integrate the equations. Since then there have been many improvements driven by a seven order of magnitude increase in computer power during my adult life.
Quoting 276. capeflorida:







As a result Nuri will raise the heights across the North Pole causing too much pressure to build at the Pole. As that happens then the cold is displaced into the US while it warms at the North Pole. Northern Plains down into Texas is in for a record breaking cold event next week.

Quoting 280. Stefaneik:

The low in the Sicily channel now, nice development in the last hours.




Lol, I just wanted to post about it as it is a beauty indeed:





From an Italian weather site with the title: "Bellissimio Ciclone Mediterraneo" (no need to translate, I guess):

Quoting 279. StormTrackerScott:



It was bone dry here in Orlando. Later in November 2009 is did turn wet especially into December. Looking at the Ensembles on both the Euro & GFS it appears many locations across the FL Penisula could double what is considered average rainfall in November. Orlando aveerages 2.5" roughly and i can see us getting 3" to 4" this month given this set up the rest of the month.


That'll work for me. It's been quite dry here the past 2 months. I'm 4.63" below average for Sept/Oct. Could be over 6" below average were it not for a surprise heavy rainfall of 1.68" on Oct 30th with the frontal passage we had a week ago.
Quoting 284. StAugustineFL:



That'll work for me. It's been quite dry here the past 2 months. I'm 4.63" below average for Sept/Oct. Could be over 6" below average were it not for a surprise heavy rainfall of 1.68" on Oct 30th with the frontal passage we had a week ago.


No rain here since mid October.
The NE Caribbean is definitely better than the NW Caribbean this year. Lol

Quoting 283. barbamz:



Lol, I just wanted to post about it as it is a beauty indeed:





From an Italian weather site with the title: "Bellissimio Ciclone Mediterraneo" (no need to translate, I guess):



The definition "Ciclone Mediterraneo" it's a invention of the press I guess, the correct definition should be "Medicane" if it becomes fully tropical (now i think it's subtropical by the appaerence).
Huge snowstorms from Ohio to New Jersey again... O.O
Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IT`S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE... WINTER... BUT NOT EVERYWHERE
YOU GO.


Go figure....
Surface pressure graph of the island of Pantelleria and Lampedusa (from Aeronautica Militare Italiana weather service).



Couldn't be any more boring.
Lampedusa Airport at 1:06 PM (local time) 85,2 km/h of sustained wind and 135,2 km/h of maximum gust.
Hmmmmmm....

"There is very cold weather.....
The correct term being used to describe this is "polar leak."

"It seems that every cold front associated with continental Arctic/Polar air will be given the term "Polar Vortex" from now on."

-------------------

Sounds like Meteorological Bi-Polar disorder to me
Quoting 288. nickharger:

Huge snowstorms from Ohio to New Jersey again... O.O
next week!!



if this storm move more to the nne and next to the coast maybe more snow!
Quoting 229. CycloneOz:



Over 90% of the heat from "GLOBAL WARMING" is being absorbed by the oceans.

Question: What percent of the heat generated by the sun is absorbed by the oceans?


Question: Are you completely uneducated in basic science?

Global warming is energy IN ADDITION TO what is normally absorbed by the system. If your adding energy to something faster than it can radiate it, then the object warms up. It doesn't matter how small the excess is. The object will continue to warm up until it reaches a new equilibrium. At that point, the temperature will stabilize.

The additional energy from global warming is primarily going into the massive heat sinks called the oceans. The oceans (and thus, the planet) are warming and will continue to warm until a new equilibrium is reached.

Unfortunately, that additional heat will also alter the climate system which we rely on for our livelihoods. Again, climate is based on equilibrium. If you add or take away energy the climate system destabilizes until it reaches a new equilibrium. And it takes surprisingly little to do that (less than 2C either way).
Quoting 297. Xyrus2000:



Question: Are you completely uneducated in basic science?

Global warming is energy IN ADDITION TO what is normally absorbed by the system. If your adding energy to something faster than it can radiate it, then the object warms up. It doesn't matter how small the excess is. The object will continue to warm up until it reaches a new equilibrium. At that point, the temperature will stabilize.

The additional energy from global warming is primarily going into the massive heat sinks called the oceans. The oceans (and thus, the planet) are warming and will continue to warm until a new equilibrium is reached.

Unfortunately, that additional heat will also alter the climate system which we rely on for our livelihoods. Again, climate is based on equilibrium. If you add or take away energy the climate system destabilizes until it reaches a new equilibrium. And it takes surprisingly little to do that (less than 2C either way).
he just wants to argue it he knows its real and as time moves on it will get more real faster and faster
A PWS of Linosa island mesaured 981,9 hPa of minimum pressure at 01:30 PM (local time) with a fall of the wind, probably was under the center of the low in that moment.
Latest ASCAT pass over Sicily channel

Quoting 287. Stefaneik:


The definition "Ciclone Mediterraneo" it's a invention of the press I guess, the correct definition should be "Medicane" if it becomes fully tropical (now i think it's subtropical by the appaerence).


As I've just seen, German Wikipedia got an (short) article "Medicane" (two years old) which acknoledges this a new meteorological term.

English equivalent in wikipedia uses "Mediterranean tropical cyclone" as a header for its very long and detailed article about this phenomenon. First sentence: "Mediterranean tropical cyclones, sometimes referred to as Mediterranean hurricanes or medicanes, are rare meteorological phenomena observed in the Mediterranean Sea."

Really interesting. When I started to look into this stuff for WU some years ago I had a hard time to find informations in the internet. Looks like it's changing :-)
Quoting 297. Xyrus2000:



Question: Are you completely uneducated in basic science?

Global warming is energy IN ADDITION TO what is normally absorbed by the system.

I'm glad someone else caught that. There wasn't an answer to his question because their isn't excess heat from solar activity like there is from the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Quoting 215. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






dancing is one of my favorite things but this one has me torn...hiya keep
Quoting 298. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

he just wants to argue it he knows its real and as time moves on it will get more real faster and faster
Yep..Some argue because they are addicted to it " literally " and blogs are a great source for there fix or supply.
Quoting 302. barbamz:



As I've just seen, German Wikipedia got an (short) article "Medicane" (two years old) which acknoledges this a new metereological term.

English aquivalent in wikipedia uses "Mediterranean tropical cyclone" as a header for its very long and detailed article about this phenomenon. First sentence: "Mediterranean tropical cyclones, sometimes referred to as Mediterranean hurricanes or medicanes, are rare meteorological phenomena observed in the Mediterranean Sea."

Really interesting. When I started to look into this stuff for WU some years ago I had a hard time to find informations in the internet. Looks like it's changing :-)


nice looking system

maybe when coke stops putting the polar bears on their cans we will accept that the climate has changed
Quoting 232. CycloneOz:



Isn't it interesting though that people use these little 'speculative' comments to drive home their issue points?

Then, when they get called out on it, they say..."Oh, we weren't serious. We were speculating."

Rubbish! BS....


No, they don't. The media does. Scientists make their points in their research, which the media rarely reports on (or if it does so, it does so inaccurately).

As an expert in my field (software engineering), people will ask me questions like "How long do you think this will take?" or "What kind of framework do you think they're using on that project?". They aren't asking me to sit down and do a full engineering process to come up with an answer. They want to know, based on my experience, what a rough estimate is. This is SPECULATION. It's an educated guess. It's couched in qualifiers, caveats, and exceptions.

That article was talking about the 2007 massive ice melt. They asked the scientist to speculate about the ice loss. He speculated that if the ice loss continued at the rate of 2007 then in about 5 years there would be an ice free arctic summer. It was said to show the magnitude of the ice loss, which was quite impressive, but beyond that it had no scientific bearing.

This would be like you getting a 4 inches of snow in an hour and saying "If it keeps snowing like this then in 3 days well have 24 feet of snow!" Yes you're getting heavy snow. But I doubt anyone would honestly believe you think it will keep snowing at that rate for 3 days straight.

It's hard to believe I actually need to explain this to someone other than my kid.
Quoting 299. Stefaneik:

A PWS of Linosa island mesaured 981,9 hPa of minimum pressure at 01:30 PM (local time) with a fall of the wind, probably was under the center of the low in that moment.


Thank you. Cool stuff, lol. Little Med is going to show the Atlantic how things are done ;-)
Good Morning..Poor Al..

Ryan Maue retweeted
Chris Jackson @ChrisJacksonSC · 37m 37 minutes ago

@RyanMaue oh god here we go... Al Roker just said polar vortex twice in 15 seconds. #STOP



Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 26s 26 seconds ago

Polar Vortex still has a ways to go on its self-promotion tour before catching up to the ambiguous and tired term Superstorm.

El Niño Is Sputtering. Why I ( and Almost Everyone Else ) Was Wrong >> Eric Holthaus. I was wrong. Despite my predictions earlier this year, I’ve already admitted there will be no super El Niño this winter. In fact, according to new information released Thursday, the odds are increasing that there may not even be an official El Niño at all.
Given the ridiculous model forecasts back in April, a lot of forecasters ( count them: 1,2,3,4 …) took the bait. (Some, to their credit, were more restrained.)
First, a quick explanation: For a major El Niño event, the atmosphere and ocean have to join forces. The Pacific trade winds can actually reverse direction during strong El Niños, pulling reinforcing shots of warm water to the surface and initiating a global chain reaction of abnormal weather.
In the end, a big El Niño just never happened. And now it looks like even a small one is iffy. What gives?
On the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s official El Niño blog, Emily Becker writes that weaker events, like the one shaping up this year, are harder to predict. Even though seasonal climate forecasting has been quite good for decades, the majority of missed events have occurred more recently, since 2000, when weaker events have been the rule.
Seasonal climate forecasts have a tendency to focus on the telltale central Pacific warming signal that defines El Niño. But this year, the Pacific was warm pretty much everywhere, perhaps throwing the crucial atmosphere-ocean linkage necessary for a mature El Niño out of kilter.
Angela Fritz, of the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang, explains:
When the ocean surface is warm all over, there’s no strong temperature gradient for the atmospheric component to build from.
And most importantly, for El Niño’s purposes, the gradient in sea surface temperature is not strong across the equator from Australia to South America, either. This gradient—from cool in the west to warm in the east—drives winds across the equator, which in turn causes a stronger temperature gradient, and so on.
In essence, a gradually warming Pacific Ocean is at once reducing our ability to predict Earth’s single most important seasonal climate phenomenon, and tampering with it as well. For forecasters, that means this year’s El Niño tease has been “rather frustrating.” It mirrors another flash-in-the-pan-and-fizzle just two years ago.
Still, that doesn’t mean El Niño-like changes haven’t happened. “Borderline” El Niño conditions, depending on your definition, have persisted for months now. El Niño-like effects have already been felt around the globe—including the ongoing mega-drought in Brazil, a lackluster monsoon season in India, a whimper of an Atlantic hurricane season, and the opposing tropical storm fest in Hawaii. Oh, and the world is also on track for its warmest year on record, boosted by near-El Niño
But for the keepers of the official El Niño scorecard, that’s not enough. And it doesn’t come close to justifying the kinds of predictions that I and others made earlier this year.
There’s still a chance that this year’s quasi-El Niño could reach official criteria and may even linger into 2016. But it won’t be the monster many of us thought it might be.


Quoting 310. ncstorm:

Good Morning..Poor Al..

Ryan Maue retweeted
Chris Jackson @ChrisJacksonSC · 37m 37 minutes ago

@RyanMaue oh god here we go... Al Roker just said polar vortex twice in 15 seconds. #STOP



Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 26s 26 seconds ago

Polar Vortex still has a ways to go on its self-promotion tour before catching up to the ambiguous and tired term Superstorm.


Shouldnt be long before that also receives a classification or rating..PV-1 , PV-2....
Quoting 306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



nice looking system




Lol, look into the left upper corner: Tropical cyclone formation probability:



Quoting 313. barbamz:



Lol, look into the left upper corner: Tropical formation probability:



It's near the maximum for the netx 48 hours

Quoting 314. Stefaneik:


It's near the maximum for the netx 48 hours




Very cool, I have fun I must admit. --- But hopefully there aren't any boats with refugees under way right now in this region (it's one of the main routes!


Predicted wave hights right now.
Italian authorities are going crazy with this situation because are not prepared, i'm watching an italian all news channel and they said that Protezione Civile talk about a tropical cyclone in Sicilian channel that could hit Sicily coast with hurricane force winds but they don't say when and where, this only create panic in the population...
317. MahFL
Mama mia !
Rainy day....

Quoting 318. sunlinepr:

Rainy day....




CaribBoy must be a happy guy.
Quoting 316. Stefaneik:

Italian authorities are going crazy with this situation because are not prepared, i'm watching an italian all news channel and they said that Protezione Civile talk about a tropical cyclone in Sicilian channel that could hit Sicily coast with hurricane force winds but they don't say when and where, this only create panic in the population...


Lol, I can imagine.

Here one of the live streaming cameras in the region (Island of Malta).
------------------------------------------------

Report in European Severe Weather Database

A warm core cyclone acquired tropical caracteristic over central Mediterranean sea, closed circulation and thunderstorm convectiv, 94 km/h (51 kt) wind and 983 hpa over Linosa island, 49 KT wind report from ship Ocean Destiny, 49 kt wind report from ship Alpine Persefone, the cyclone increase
http://my.meteonetwork.it/station/scl078/(s)
http://www.sat24.com/en/tn(s)
http://www.sierrapapa.it/precipitation_probabilit y.htm(s)
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31& t=116949&p=2426186#p2426186(s)
http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/155177- profondi-minimi-bassa-pressione-bassa-tirreno-2.ht ml(s)
report status: report confirmed (QC1)
contact: Bianchino Daniele [e-mail]
Quoting 310:
Good Morning..Poor Al..

Ryan Maue retweeted
Chris Jackson @ChrisJacksonSC · 37m 37 minutes ago

@RyanMaue oh god here we go... Al Roker just said polar vortex twice in 15 seconds. #STOP

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 26s 26 seconds ago

Polar Vortex still has a ways to go on its self-promotion tour before catching up to the ambiguous and tired term Superstorm.
Ah yes - Ryan Maue! Rush Limbaugh's favorite Ph.D. meteorologist - because he's an AGW/CC denialist. Dr. Maue seems to have a lot of fans here, and seems to be a good forecaster, even though he appears to be clueless about AGW/CC. Why does he refuse to accept an established term used regularly in meteorological and climate research? Polar vortex is a scientific term, unlike things like the media's naming of winter storms in the U.S.

Thanks, but for meteorology other than weather forecasting, e.g. research and analysis - I'll stick with rational meteorologists like Dr. Masters and his associates here - they understand both weather and climate. And they're smart and informed enough to know that "polar vortex" is a scientific term - and not something made up by the media.

Here's my evidence - a Google Scholar search where scientific papers - not media news and stories - containing the term "polar vortex" listed on the first page go back about 30 years.
It's near Malta, from the visible sat of Tunisia we can see a very well definied eye surrounded with a ring of convection, probably it's still strenghtening

323. JRRP
Quoting sunlinepr:
Rainy day....


Quoting 293. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Hmmmmmm....

"There is very cold weather.....
The correct term being used to describe this is "polar leak."

"It seems that every cold front associated with continental Arctic/Polar air will be given the term "Polar Vortex" from now on."

-------------------

Sounds like Meteorological Bi-Polar disorder to me
Yep...There actually two polar vortices at one time.
Headlines from Accuweather....


Polar Vortex to Blast 200 Million People With Arctic Air
November 7, 2014; 8:03 AM ET

The atmosphere is preparing to send part of the polar vortex southward toward the United States next week with an outbreak of arctic air and lake-effect snow.

Ratings = Money.....and the P.V. report is a popular way to grab attention.
Quoting DelawareJack:
El Niño Is Sputtering. Why I ( and Almost Everyone Else ) Was Wrong >> Eric Holthaus.


The story is from Slate and can be viewed a little more easily there, since a copy and paste here destroys all the formatting from the original.

When I was looking at all the claims of a Super El Nino last April, I couldn't understand how we were supposed to get this amazing temperature gradient you need for any kind of El Nino when the Pacific was warm almost everywhere. I remember how some forecasters were using the warm temperatures as proof we were going to get a strong El Nino when it seemed just the opposite to me. It seems as if my understanding of how this works wasn't too far off.

The worst part of this whole episode is how a few forecasters managed to stampede a bunch of other forecasters and decision makers about how bad this was going to be and we had to do something to save people from imminent death and destruction. Some governments, like Indonesia, were even being accused of simply standing by and not doing anything while doom loomed above them. The thing is that countries like Indonesia and the people who live there have a long history of dealing with El Nino events and they simply didn't see the signs they usually do of anything happening, much the same as New Englanders look for natural signs of how bad winter will be. We had these models that purported to be able to accurately forecast global weather conditions three to six months in advance. The problems is that they don't work. It could be global warming or that we just don't really understand how all the mechanisms of an El Nino work. Whatever it is, the credibility of many forecasters took a real hit this year because they clung to models in the face of actual conditions and were basically wishcasting what was supposed to happen. I'd like to think that this whole episode would lead to forecasters reappraising how much they should rely on long term models for events where the models have shown very little skill...but I kind of doubt that's going to happen.
Quoting 321. Xulonn:

Ah yes - Ryan Maue! Rush Limbaugh's favorite Ph.D. meteorologist - because he's an AGW/CC denialist. Dr. Maue seems to have a lot of fans here, and seems to be a good forecaster, even though he appears to be clueless about AGW/CC. Why does he refuse to accept an established term used regularly in meteorological and climate research? Polar vortex is a scientific term, unlike things like the media's naming of winter storms in the U.S.

Thanks, but for meteorology other than weather forecasting, e.g. research and analysis - I'll stick with rational meteorologists like Dr. Masters and his associates here - they understand both weather and climate. And they're smart and informed enough to know that "polar vortex" is a scientific term - and not something made up by the media.

Here's my evidence - a Google Scholar search where scientific papers - not media news and stories - containing the term "polar vortex" listed on the first page go back about 30 years.


Xulonn..

R.E.L.A.X.

You took two tweets and turn it in a discussion on AGW/Climate change which had absolutely nothing to do with the tweets..

Dr. Maue is only pointing out how the media will blow something out of proportion..Many certified meterological professionals regardless of their AGW stance have spoken about it on how the term "Polar Vortex" is used as a media ploy and blown out of proportion. Considering that its Al Roker on the Weather Channel to which most people here can remove their bias except you know they hype weather events on another level..

No one is disputing Polar Vortex isn't a scientific term but it has been implied since the winter of last year as being played on the public who don't know any better as an unprecedented event and it really isn't...that is how I took Dr. Maue's tweets..not a conversation on AGW/Climate Change..

Farmers in three Australian states experience lowest rainfall on record
Link

3 days ago –

Hottest October on record in Australia as fire danger rises

Also clocking up record months for maximums were Western Australia and South Australia, helping to drive the country to its hottest October in records going back to 1911.

Nationally, maximums were 2.76 degrees above normal, eclipsing the 2.63-degree anomaly set in 1988, the bureau said. Victoria had its second hottest October, as did the Northern Territory.

Link
Quoting hydrus:
Headlines from Accuweather....


Polar Vortex to Blast 200 Million People With Arctic Air
November 7, 2014; 8:03 AM ET

The atmosphere is preparing to send part of the polar vortex southward toward the United States next week with an outbreak of arctic air and lake-effect snow.

Ratings = Money.....and the P.V. report is a popular way to grab attention.
I'm starting to wonder if we'll soon have any weather events that won't headlined as "blasting" someplace. The idea of 200 million people being "blasted" by anything is pretty serious, but it's sort of comical in this story, since the only thing that's going to happen is snow and cold that arrives every year is going to be earlier this year. Maybe people will order their pizzas and Chinese food early though. :-)
00z CMC Snowfall map through 240 hours

Quoting 330. sar2401:
I'm starting to wonder if we'll soon have any weather events that won't headlined as "blasting" someplace. The idea of 200 million people being "blasted" by anything is pretty serious, but it's sort of comical in this story, since the only thing that's going to happen is snow and cold that arrives every year is going to earlier this year. Maybe people will order their pizzas and Chinese food early though. :-)


Extreme partly sunny conditions coupled with unprecedented light and variable winds?
Quoting barbamz:


Lol, I can imagine.

Here one of the live streaming cameras in the region (Island of Malta).
------------------------------------------------

Report in European Severe Weather Database

A warm core cyclone acquired tropical caracteristic over central Mediterranean sea, closed circulation and thunderstorm convectiv, 94 km/h (51 kt) wind and 983 hpa over Linosa island, 49 KT wind report from ship Ocean Destiny, 49 kt wind report from ship Alpine Persefone, the cyclone increase
http://my.meteonetwork.it/station/scl078/(s)
http://www.sat24.com/en/tn(s)
http://www.sierrapapa.it/precipitation_probabilit y.htm(s)
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31& amp; t=116949&p=2426186#p2426186(s)
http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/155177- profondi-minimi-bassa-pressione-bassa-tirreno-2.ht ml(s)
report status: report confirmed (QC1)
contact: Bianchino Daniele [e-mail]
It sure looks like a tropical storm on the satellite. It's not the first time it's happened in the Med but I'm surprised at how strong this is given water temperatures are marginal for tropical development. There must be otherwise ideal conditions like low shear and very little dry air to impede the cyclone. I guess I'm not really surprised at the Italian Civil Protection reaction to this. They don't have the best reputation to begin with in comparison to other emergency management organizations, and it's not like Sicily gets hit with this kind of storm on a regular basis.
Quoting 329. ColoradoBob1:


Farmers in three Australian states experience lowest rainfall on record
Link

3 days ago –

Hottest October on record in Australia as fire danger rises

Also clocking up record months for maximums were Western Australia and South Australia, helping to drive the country to its hottest October in records going back to 1911.

Nationally, maximums were 2.76 degrees above normal, eclipsing the 2.63-degree anomaly set in 1988, the bureau said. Victoria had its second hottest October, as did the Northern Territory.

Link


Very common with warm enso events for Australia to see drought.
Quoting tlawson48:


Extreme partly sunny conditions coupled with unprecedented light and variable winds?
You have a future ahead of you in journalism...
Hi Res models now moving moderate to heavy rain into the west coast of FL just after the lunch hour tomorrow and may end up being even soon however now that the timing has sped up that means the rains end earlier on Sunday.
Quoting 331. ncstorm:

00z CMC Snowfall map through 240 hours




Euro has snow into Texas.
282) Record breaking? Dave Murray last night said while we'll see 20s in the StL region, records are in low / mid teens, so not even close here! Long range for my region, Wed & Thurs both 35 high, 25 low. Currently in S C IL, 42 w/ 31 dew pt, 30.2" w/ light W to SW winds.
Here's the Headline on AOL

Intense storm headed to Alaska's Aleutian Islands

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) -- An explosive storm surpassing the intensity of 2012's Superstorm Sandy is expected to reach Alaska's western Aleutian Islands over the weekend and bring unseasonably frigid temperatures to much of the U.S. next week, weather forecasters said Thursday.

What remains of Typhoon Nuri is moving northeast from off the Japanese coast and is mixing with cold air and the jet stream, which will give it the power to produce hurricane-force winds and waves 50 feet high. It could arrive late Friday or Saturday before weakening in the Bering Sea, the National Weather Service said.

The storm potentially could be one of the most intensive to ever hit the North Pacific, weather service forecaster Brian Hurley said. The Coast Guard and Alaska state emergency responders were keeping a close eye on its strength.

The system is expected to push cold air into much of the lower 48 states next week, forecaster Bob Oravec said. By the weekend, high temperatures in Minneapolis will only reach the upper 20s, and mid-30s are expected in Chicago - more than 15 degrees below normal.

Snow also is coming to areas including the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

"It looks like winter's starting early," Oravec said.

While Sandy caused destruction along the urban East Coast, Nuri's target in the north is a sparsely populated region with a few small communities that are accustomed to severe weather.

In fact, 69 mph wind gusts blew in last week in the western Aleutian town of Adak, a former Naval Air Station east of Nuri's direct route that retains its military appearance. To prepare for the storm, the community's 100 year-round residents were tying down loose items like picnic tables, storage containers and pallets, and parking cars differently so doors won't get blown off, city manager Layton Lockett said.

A multiuse building that houses the town's school can also be used as an emergency center if necessary.

"If it gets really bad, you know, everybody'll come over here, camp out a little bit, have fun and drink cocoa," Lockett said.

The storm's path includes a busy maritime route for cargo ships traveling to or from Asia, as well as the red king crab fishery made famous by the Discovery Channel reality show "Deadliest Catch." Vessels are finding protected harbors or moving away from the path, according to Brett Farrell with the Marine Exchange of Alaska, a nonprofit maritime organization. No one in their right mind would stick around that area, he said.

With most of the red king crab quota caught, the season is winding down, said Mark Gleason, executive director of the Seattle-based trade association Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers. He said the coming storm is huge but the fleet has decades of experience dealing with severe conditions. Crews will hunker down and wait out the weather, then move on and do the job that needs to be done, he said.

"This isn't some kid's sailing class," Gleason said. "These guys are professionals. They know what they're doing."

Officials are also closely watching the western coast of Alaska's mainland, according to Jeremy Zidek, a spokesman for the state Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. Fall storms routinely batter many coastal communities, and erosion has long been a problem.
Quoting 338. dabirds:

282) Record breaking? Dave Murray last night said while we'll see 20s in the StL region, records are in low / mid teens, so not even close here! Long range for my region, Wed & Thurs both 35 high, 25 low. Currently in S C IL, 42 w/ 31 dew pt, 30.2" w/ light W to SW winds.


Euro has high in some cases struggling to hit zero across some areas of the mid west. I think the heart of the coldest air should stay west of you and drain into Texas.
Quoting 333. sar2401:

It sure looks like a tropical storm on the satellite. It's not the first time it's happened in the Med but I'm surprised at how strong this is given water temperatures are marginal for tropical development. There must be otherwise ideal conditions like low shear and very little dry air to impede the cyclone. I guess I'm not really surprised at the Italian Civil Protection reaction to this. They don't have the best reputation to begin with in comparison to other emergency management organizations, and it's not like Sicily gets hit with this kind of storm on a regular basis.


Hi Sar. Tell your fiance to call home to Slovenia; folks are getting soaked once again over there:

Surface Pressure at the airport station of Luqa (Malta) falls to 991 hPa in the last METAR, two PWS in Gozo island fall to 988 and 986 hPa, a PWS in Malta island falls to 978 hPa and a buoy just south of Malta island falls to 987 hPa, all of these stil falling.
343. MAstu
Quoting 328. ncstorm:



Xulonn..

R.E.L.A.X.

You took two tweets and turn it in a discussion on AGW/Climate change which had absolutely nothing to do with the tweets..

Dr. Maue is only pointing out how the media will blow something out of proportion..Many certified meterological professionals regardless of their AGW stance have spoken about it on how the term "Polar Vortex" is used as a media ploy and blown out of proportion. Considering that its Al Roker on the Weather Channel to which most people here can remove their bias except you know they hype weather events on another level..

No one is disputing Polar Vortex isn't a scientific term but it has been implied since the winter of last year as being played on the public who don't know any better as an unprecedented event and it really isn't...that is how I took Dr. Maue's tweets..not a conversation on AGW/Climate Change..
yea Maue is really touchy about headlines that he thinks are sensationalist
344. MAstu
Quoting 331. ncstorm:

00z CMC Snowfall map through 240 hours


Boston is in the clear! Woot!
Quoting sar2401:


The story is from Slate and can be viewed a little more easily there, since a copy and paste here destroys all the formatting from the original.

When I was looking at all the claims of a Super El Nino last April, I couldn't understand how we were supposed to get this amazing temperature gradient you need for any kind of El Nino when the Pacific was warm almost everywhere. I remember how some forecasters were using the warm temperatures as proof we were going to get a strong El Nino when it seemed just the opposite to me. It seems as if my understanding of how this works wasn't too far off.

The worst part of this whole episode is how a few forecasters managed to stampede a bunch of other forecasters and decision makers about how bad this was going to be and we had to do something to save people from imminent death and destruction. Some governments, like Indonesia, were even being accused of simply standing by and not doing anything while doom loomed above them. The thing is that countries like Indonesia and the people who live there have a long history of dealing with El Nino events and they simply didn't see the signs they usually do of anything happening, much the same as New Englanders look for natural signs of how bad winter will be. We had these models that purported to be able to accurately forecast global weather conditions three to six months in advance. The problems is that they don't work. It could be global warming or that we just don't really understand how all the mechanisms of an El Nino work. Whatever it is, the credibility of many forecasters took a real hit this year because they clung to models in the face of actual conditions and were basically wishcasting what was supposed to happen. I'd like to think that this whole episode would lead to forecasters reappraising how much they should rely on long term models for events where the models have shown very little skill...but I kind of doubt that's going to happen.
Agree, NHC can't be too proud for the last two year forecasting records; they should make a reflection and go back to the John Hope days, were human analisis for forecasting had lots of respects and credibility...
Quoting 332. tlawson48:



Extreme partly sunny conditions coupled with unprecedented light and variable winds?

Light and variable winds around the backside of a historic polar vortex delivering bone-chilling air to 50 million!
Quoting barbamz:


Hi Sar. Tell your fiance to call home to Slovenia; folks are getting soaked once again over there:

It was my late wife that was half Slovenian but yes, I've been following the weather there. As usual with these tropical type systems, it's affecting the tiny coast of Slovenia around Piran and Portoroz more than inland areas. Slovenia is capable of absorbing a great deal of rain due to its geology but not so in Croatia, where the storm will affect the coast and inland areas more so than in Slovenia. We'll be seeing more storm surge and flooding videos coming from there I'm afraid.
Malta just in the eye

Quoting HuracanTaino:
Agree, NHC can't be too proud for the last two year forecasting records; they should make a reflection and go back to the John Hope days, were human analisis for forecasting had lots of respects and credibility...
None of the El Nino forecasts were done by the NHC. They are done by the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA. The NHC really has a good record with hurricane forecasts over the last several years. The CPC has a record of consistent failures in long-term forecasts, but that really shouldn't be surprising, since long- term models just don't have much skill. The problem is people jumping on these models and hyping them as if they are representations of reality.

Polar Vortex is cold and snowy for most of the US, but for the southwest it means warm and dry. Warm and dry mark my words! El Nino may help Arizona and southern California, Texas is in potential crosshairs if the vortex's reach far south over the plains, but Colorado, New Mexico, and Northern California will continue in serious serious droughts. The polar vortex-southern jabs of jet stream are the new normal of all future winters, and with that drought is the new normal for much of the southwest!
Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Light and variable winds around the backside of a historic polar vortex delivering bone-chilling air to 50 million!


vortex begins to spilt beginning 7am tomorrow morning



just had to do it
Quoting 252. CycloneOz:



Well now...there's your problem. Those governments you listed are the biggest generators of CO2 on the planet right now.

The Chinese are building coal plants right and LEFT! :)

Still, I maintain that as long as we keep improving the technologies associated with burning fossil fuels...we'll be just fine on Earth.

Remember...these are substances that are NATURAL to the environment. Oil, as noxious as it can be...comes right out of the ground.

This is a WONDERFUL planet. Creative, enterprising, and entrepreneurial humans have made it possible for incredible life-improving devices and systems to exist.

I thank God for all the time for the resources at my disposal, and for this dynamic world that shrugs off our presence through the natural processes of decay and renewal.


Evidently you've become the blog.s biggest climate troll, congrats.

How that's even possible, I don't know, but you have.
353. MAstu
Quoting 352. Jedkins01:



Evidently you've become the blog.s biggest climate troll, congrats.

How that's even possible, I don't know, but you have.
yea according to Oz everything qualifies as natural except perhaps a meteor... So if that means that oil isn't harmful, then nothing is harmful, right?
Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Light and variable winds around the backside of a historic polar vortex delivering bone-chilling air to 50 million!


That would be closer to 200 million.
The 12z parallel GFS shows temperatures up to 63F below average in Montana as a 1053mb arctic high enters the United States next week. Wow!

Quoting 352. Jedkins01:



Evidently you've become the blog.s biggest climate troll, congrats.

How that's even possible, I don't know, but you have.


CyclownOz!
Quoting 351. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



vortex begins to spilt beginning 7am tomorrow morning
<


Reminds me to have a look at Earthwind concerning Ex-Nuri:

The latest (winds at 850hpa)



Tomorrow 3am UTC


359. TXEER
Wow...cold in Winter...I'm shocked!
Quoting 357. hydrus:


its gonna get cold maybe a little snow too
Quoting 355. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z parallel GFS shows temperatures up to 63F below average in Montana as a 1053mb arctic high enters the United States next week. Wow!




Heating Companies..

Quoting 361. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its gonna get cold maybe a little snow too
looks like it will just keep doing a circle dance from north to south in the long term as well

Burst of deep convection around the eye in the latest frame of the satellite loop, probably is the sign that tropical transition is completed, very interesting for the next hours over the open sea.

A little snow possible for next sunday if the gfs stays consistent. It'll be St. Louis' first snow of the season.
snow coming next week i am happy
Quoting 367. Stefaneik:

Burst of deep convection around the eye in the latest frame of the satellite loop, probably is the sign that tropical transition is completed, very interesting for the next hours over the open sea.



Wish we had some Recon going in, lol - or at least a NOAA floater on it.

--------------------------

Anniversary of typhoon Haiyan: BBC got a good gallery with pics from the devastation a year ago and the same places today. There are certainly many improvements, and the trees are green again:

372. MahFL
Bering Sea storm over hyped....

"He said earlier forecasts that it might be a record-setting low pressure system did not look like they were materializing."
Any snow incoming for the NWS Paducah forecasting area? I wanna name Winter Storm Albus.
And any idea on the pressure of Superstorm Nuri?
374. MahFL
Quoting 371. barbamz:



.... There are certainly many improvements, and the trees are green again.....


It still looks like a dump to me.


What a difference a year makes!
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


What a difference a year makes!

Winter Storm Albus! BRING IT DAMAR!!!!!!!
Quoting 367. Stefaneik:

Burst of deep convection around the eye in the latest frame of the satellite loop, probably is the sign that tropical transition is completed, very interesting for the next hours over the open sea.



Wow! Crazy.
As mentioned, one year ago today.

We may never track a storm of such intensity for a long time.

Quoting 376. 62901IL:


Winter Storm Albus! BRING IT DAMAR!!!!!!!


There you go. It's also on the anniversary of the november 17th tornado outbreak. That was when tornadoes hit washington, gifford, new minden, kokomo (x2), brookport, coal city, etc.

(Click to enlarge). Nice close-up of our Mediterranean guy. Pinwheel eye :-) Source La Repubblica.it resp. MODIS/Nasa.

Edit: here is a better version:



---------------------

From European Weather Database:

Lampedusa 13:05h UTC
wind speed: 37.6 m/s
convective.
damage to property: yes
damage to crops and forests: yes

Malta 17:15h UTC
the intensity rating was based on an eyewitness report of the damage.
wind speed: 29 m/s
convective.
accompanying weather: heavy rain.
Quoting 367. Stefaneik:

Burst of deep convection around the eye in the latest frame of the satellite loop, probably is the sign that tropical transition is completed, very interesting for the next hours over the open sea.




Quite interesting indeed!
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


There you go. It's also on the anniversary of the november 17th tornado outbreak. That was when tornadoes hit washington, gifford, new minden, kokomo (x2), brookport, coal city, etc.

A DOUBLE WHAMMY!!!!!! YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh, I'm so happy, and while I know it's bound to change, I expect 1-3 inches of snow, enough to cause an advisory.
*begins doing "Lotsa snow" dance*
Quoting 382. 62901IL:


A DOUBLE WHAMMY!!!!!! YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh, I'm so happy, and while I know it's bound to change, I expect 1-3 inches of snow, enough to cause an advisory.


Wasn't it right after christmas of 2012 that the very first blizzard warning ever was issued for southern illinois? However, 1-3 inches of snow doesn't quite warrant a winter weather advisory unless there's mixed precip. Up here there's less than 1 inch of snow forecast.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
A little snow possible for next sunday if the gfs stays consistent. It'll be St. Louis' first snow of the season.


Based on the 12Z GFS it will be close (maybe yes, maybe no) for St. Louis.


As we know the models will change with time.
Could be clear and cold or you could be shoveling snow.
Quoting 386. Sfloridacat5:



Based on the 12Z GFS it will be close (maybe yes, maybe no) for St. Louis.



The snow should shift farther east in later model runs.
388. MAstu
who has the latest on the Bering Sea storm? Last I heard it was gonna drop to 918 and produce 47 ft waves
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Wasn't it right after christmas of 2012 that the very first blizzard warning ever was issued for southern illinois? However, 1-3 inches of snow doesn't quite warrant a winter weather advisory unless there's mixed precip. Up here there's less than 1 inch of snow forecast.

Yes. But still, it's bound to change. So, we could get moar or less or moar or less or moar or less or moar or less...
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


The snow should shift farther east in later model runs.

All the better!!!!!!!!! Maybe Albus AND Brian! (the next name on the list)
NWS in Ruskin is backing off our rainfall totals for the weekend. I would like a couple of inches but it's looking more like .25 to 1.0.

Saturday A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 62. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. North wind 7 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Okay, medicane, this is no fun any longer:

Translated by google from:
Maltempo, Lampedusa letteralmente devastata dal ciclone tropicale [FOTO]
venerdi 7 novembre 2014, 16:36 di Peppe Caridi
The island of Lampedusa has been literally devastated in the middle of the day today (between 12:30 and 13:30) from the tropical cyclone that is affecting the Sicilian Channel, moving from west to east. Scary pictures of the damage. Serious damage on the island of Sicily Channel, where wind gusts have exceeded 140 km/h, such as those that characterize hurricanes 1st category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The damage was very serious, especially in the harbor where dozens of ships have sunk. The cyclone has now moved to Malta and Sicily, and in the evening may be of interest to the south / east, between Ragusa and Syracuse. Civil protection is mobilized and has already sent Alert maximum.

Have look at the photo gallery.
393. MahFL
Quoting 388. MAstu:

who has the latest on the Bering Sea storm? Last I heard it was gonna drop to 918 and produce 47 ft waves


".SAT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 39 FT BERING SIDE...41 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS."

The last projected pressure I saw was 925 mb.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


The snow should shift farther east in later model runs.


Go futher out in time and a second system causes snow to break out across the southern Plains. This will again be a maybe yes, maybe no for St. Louis. It will be close.
This low has a much better chance of giving St. Louis some snow.

Snow/ice all the way down to S.E. Texas. Look at the stacked isobars down in S. Texas (Blue Norther).
Quoting 62901IL:
Any snow incoming for the NWS Paducah forecasting area? I wanna name Winter Storm Albus.
And any idea on the pressure of Superstorm Nuri?

964mb now. The cyclone will begin more significant deepening tonight. Should bottom out around 920mb.
397. MahFL
398. MahFL
Quoting 396. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Should bottom out around 920mb.


925mb....
Quoting 391. luvtogolf:

NWS in Ruskin is backing off our rainfall totals for the weekend. I would like a couple of inches but it's looking more like .25 to 1.0.

Saturday A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 62. North wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. North wind 7 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.



The GFS has also backed off on rainfall totals for Central FL. Just this morning, local mets in Tampa were calling for between 1 and 1.5 inches. I'm predicting no more than half an inch for the Tampa reporting station by Monday. Would be nice to be wrong on that.
Quoting 362. Grothar:



Interesting little critter!
Who would have thought we would have one of these in early November?
I'm sure that there's going to be a lot of sad rain stories from Italy and the adjoining countries to the north over the next few day
Japan Meteorological Agency
15:00 PM UTC (0:00 AM JST)

STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW [T1420] 954 HPA
AT 51N 167E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
Medicane hitting Lampedusa today:




GFS forecast (12z) 950hpa winds for tomorrow morning. You see the center of circulation.
Quoting 371. barbamz:



Wish we had some Recon going in, lol - or at least a NOAA floater on it.

NOAA Satellites Analysis Branch discontinued monitoring of Med Sea after the Tropical Storm of november 2011 because of lack of funds (they said when i emailed them) son we can't have a floater nor dvorak estimate.

Meanwhile italian media looks ridiculous again and said "tromba d'aria a Lampedusa"
For who don't know italian "tromba d'aria" is a term invented by media some decades ago and used for quite everiting related to wind (for exemple tornado, downburst, strong wind like Bora in winter, blizzard).



Detailed Forecast
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT. WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

Today SE wind 60 to 65 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 75 kt. Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Seas 19 ft building to 25 ft.

Tonight SW wind 55 to 60 kt, with gusts as high as 65 kt. Showers. Seas 31 ft building to 41 ft.

Saturday SW wind 45 to 50 kt becoming WNW in the afternoon. Showers. Seas 38 ft subsiding to 32 ft.

Saturday Night NW wind 40 to 50 kt. Showers. Seas 30 ft subsiding to 24 ft.
Sunday
Quoting tampabaymatt:


The GFS has also backed off on rainfall totals for Central FL. Just this morning, local mets in Tampa were calling for between 1 and 1.5 inches. I'm predicting no more than half an inch for the Tampa reporting station by Monday. Would be nice to be wrong on that.


I'm hoping the Fort Myers rain shield is down this weekend.
I've only had 3 days with measurable precipitation (just over 1") in the past 38 days.

My Vantage Vue has only measured 33.34" for the year and normal should be up around 52"

Officially, we're around 15" below normal for the year at Page Field (the official reporting station for Fort Myers).
406. flsky
What a shame this lovely place, notwithstanding the weather, is ruined by graffitti.
Quoting 402. barbamz:

Medicane hitting Lampedusa today:




GFS forecast (12z) 950hpa winds for tomorrow morning. You see the center of circulation.
Quoting 403. Stefaneik:


NOAA Satellites Analysis Branch discontinued monitoring of Med Sea after the Tropical Storm of november 2011 because of lack of funds (they said when i emailed them) son we can't have a floater nor dvorak estimate.



Pity! Nobody is going to name our 'cane?

Should it stuck with the name Qendresa I, which was/is used by the Institute in Berlin for this section of the front?



AllertaMeteo IT ‏@AllertaMeteoIT 13 Min.Vor 13 Minuten
#AllertaMeteo 19:25 Spostamento dell'occhio del ciclone a sud-est della Sicilia pic.twitter.com/DkN4ikrUup
(eye has moved to the south-east of Sicily)
Quoting 369. TimTheWxMan:

A little snow possible for next sunday if the gfs stays consistent. It'll be St. Louis' first snow of the season.


Who would've thinked South Carolina would beat Missouri to it? There should be betting lines on first city to see snow, reminds me of Kramer and the Texan gambling on which airplanes would arrive/depart first.
We had an X-Class (X1.6) solar flare an hour or so ago today from sunspot 2205 (top left spot on the image of the Sun below).



2205 is not nearly as massive as 2192 that we were watching a week or two ago, but nonetheless it has produced several M class flares and now this X class event. Also, unlike 2192, some of its flares are producing CMEs, including this past one, although it doesn't appear particularly impressive and should be directed mostly away from Earth:



Something to watch as it turns more towards Earth in the next few days though.
Quoting 399. tampabaymatt:



The GFS has also backed off on rainfall totals for Central FL. Just this morning, local mets in Tampa were calling for between 1 and 1.5 inches. I'm predicting no more than half an inch for the Tampa reporting station by Monday. Would be nice to be wrong on that.


One of the local mets suggest that the heavier rain could be further south.
Translated with some help from google:

Maltempo, il ciclone prende una brutta traiettoria: si dirige a nord/est [MAPPE-LIVE]
Meteoweb.eu, venerdì 7 novembre 2014, 19:19 di Peppe Caridi

Cyclone located in the Strait of Sicily is taking a very dangerous path: After severely affecting the island of Malta, it changed course, and instead of continuing to move east - south/east directly into the Ionian Sea, it veered to the north/east and now seems to want to focus just the tip of the south east of Sicily, between Ragusa and Syracuse. The latest maps (which we publish accompanying article) speak for themselves. Going north/east, may be involved in bad weather not only the entire eastern Sicily, but also the Ionian Calabria center/south. It's good to point out that these situations of extreme weatherare as absolutely unpredictable as rare in the Mediterranean. Scary live images from satellites.

Cyclone alert Sicily: The center of low pressure is something deep as 975hPa, but a few kilometers away the pressure of 1000hPa: the pressure gradient is awesome, and areas around which passes through this storm may occur devastating events such as wind gusts of up to 160km / h as happened in Malta, floods, storms raging. We hope that does not happen anything serious, renewing the invitation of civil protection not to leave the house and take cover following the "rules of conduct" specifically discussed, we continue to monitor the situation directly with the news in real time the pages of nowcasting: satellites, location, lightning, radar, and webcam.


(Follow the link to see the maps. radar screenshot below).

Quoting 406. flsky:

What a shame this lovely place, notwithstanding the weather, is ruined by graffitti.



Lampedusa, a very tiny island, has to bear the brunt of desperated refugees from Africa and Arabian countries who try to reach the island by boat (I hope the storm didn't cost any lives in the sea and on the Island):


From wiki:

In 2011, many more immigrants moved to Lampedusa during the rebellions in Tunisia and Libya.[18] By May 2011, more than 35,000 immigrants had arrived on the island from Tunisia and Libya.[19] By the end of August, 48,000 had arrived.[20] Most were young males in their 20s and 30s.[21] The situation has caused division within the EU, the French government regarding most of the arrivals as economic migrants rather than refugees in fear of persecution.[22] Italy has repeatedly requested aid from the EU in managing refugees, but has been turned down.

In July 2013, Pope Francis visited the island on his first official visit outside of Rome. He prayed for migrants, living and dead, and denounced their traffickers.[23] In October 2013 a boat carrying over 500 migrants, mostly from Eritrea and Somalia, sank off the coast of Lampedusa with the deaths of at least 300 people.[24] The press referred to the incident as the "Lampedusa boat disaster".[25]


Locals are very brave and they do what they can to meet the situation.
Good afternoon

It's been a morning/afternoon of torrential rain. Schools have been cancelled, roads are flooded, traffic lights are a 50/50 deal, weather alerts on my phone going crazy. And last but not least, my roof sprang a leak. So nice to come home to! NOT!!! I understand it's the same in St. Croix, if not worse.

I'm wondering how our friends in Puerto Rico and St. Barts are doing?

Lindy
Quoting 407. barbamz:



Pity! Nobody is going to name our 'cane?

Should it stuck with the name Qendresa I, which was/is used by the Institute in Berlin for this section of the front?



AllertaMeteo IT ‏@AllertaMeteoIT 13 Min.Vor 13 Minuten
#AllertaMeteo 19:25 Spostamento dell'occhio del ciclone a sud-est della Sicilia pic.twitter.com/DkN4ikrUup
(eye has moved to the south-east of Sicily)

When in 2011 they gave the name Rolf at the tropical storm 01M was original or the same of the previous frontal zone that gave the birth at the system after the cut-off?

The eye is going to be filled by deep convection developed around the minimum

Mediterranean Sea
Busy anniversary day, two more - Berlin wall came down and 47 yrs ago KSHE 95 came on the air, believe the owners eventually started a WSHE somewhere in FL, rem seeing a Sweetmeat sticker on a BMW bike at Cham-bana in '80, then realizing it said WSHE instead of KSHE.

Closing in on 50 in S C IL, still 31 dew pt, press has dropped to 30.11", still light winds, but getting more SW-S now.
Bering Sea Bomb forming.
Arctic Outbreak to Bring Coldest Air of the Season Next Week
An Arctic outbreak is expected to infiltrate parts of the central and eastern U.S. next week.
Highest wind forecast I've seen.



Western Aleutians

Zone Forecast


For More Weather Information:

Anchorage, AK Local Forecast Office


Today Rain...heavy at times in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast wind 50 to 70 mph with gusts 80 to 90 mph.

Tonight Rain showers. Lows around 40. Southwest wind 50 to 70 mph with gusts 80 to 90 mph.
Saturday Rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest wind 50 to 60 mph. Gusts to 80 mph in the morning.
The calendar may only say November, but a mid-winter preview is looming next week. An Arctic outbreak will bring the coldest air of the season, beginning Monday in the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
The cold this time will last longer and will be more widespread than other cold surges we have seen so far this season.

The cold front begins its plunge in Montana and the Dakotas late Sunday, then into the Plains Monday, bringing much colder temperatures. will go from a high near 60 degrees on Sunday to a high in the 20s on Monday.
Highs 10-30 degrees below average will plunge into Plains, western Great Lakes, Upper and mid-Mississippi Valleys on Monday and Tuesday. and may see their first sub-freezing high temperature of the season by midweek. In fact, highs may struggle to top the freezing mark in the Twin Cities for several days. The last time Chicago had a daytime high that didn't rise above freezing was March 25.

It will be breezy as well, which will make it feel even colder. Wind chills will be in the single digits and teens for much of the northern Plains and Midwest, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

A few record cool high temperatures are possible as well, including on Wednesday (current record is 33 set in 1996) and on Friday (current record is 33 set in 1997).

The coldest temperatures and the heart of the cold air will be anchored in the northern Plains and Midwest, but will stretch across much of the central and eastern U.S. In fact, high temperatures will only be in the 20s for much of the northern Plains and parts of the Midwest with lows dropping down into the teens. Several locations will see single-digit lows beginning Tuesday morning, and parts of the northern High Plains and northern Rockies may see subzero lows.

The cold front is expected to reach the Northeast by Wednesday, with the brunt of the cold first being felt Thursday. High temperatures won't likely top 50 degrees Thursday in The last time that happened was on March 26. may see its first freeze sometime late next week. may also drop to 32 degrees, which last occurred on April 18.
This looks promising. Also as I stated the rains start early to mid afternoon Saturday as I know there was some confusion with a couple on here about that.

Possible Snowstorm for Next Week big ?
Northeast | Nov .7, 2014 2:16 pm ET
- Much of the region will see a dry Saturday.
- A few showers are possible over western sections of New York and Pennsylvania, however.
- Saturday highs will be mainly in the 40s, with a few 30s in far northern New England and some 50s in the Mid-Atlantic region.
- Sunday will be dry with moderate temperatures.
- The significantly colder air doesn't move into the region until Wednesday at the earliest.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good afternoon

It's been a morning/afternoon of torrential rain. Schools have been cancelled, roads are flooded, traffic lights are a 50/50 deal, weather alerts on my phone going crazy. And last but not least, my roof sprang a leak. So nice to come home to! NOT!!! I understand it's the same in St. Croix, if not worse.

I'm wondering how our friends in Puerto Rico and St. Barts are doing?

Lindy
In Puerto Rico has been raining since yesterday without stopping, schools didn't close but there was low attendance since parents in most schools around the island kept their children home,most rivers are already cresting and the whole island is under flash flood warning till tomorrow, and perhaps could be extended through the whole week end,unfortunately... the low pressure is moving over the DR, but Haiti is getting the dry side of the system, thanks goodness....
Uff, at your service I managed to grasp some gifs of the eye of our "medicane" passing over the island of Malta (south of Sicily) and put them together to an animated gif. Source is Malta Radar.

Shemya, Alaska, United States
Eareckson Air Station

The report was made 13 minutes ago, at 19:20 UTC
Wind 68 mph from the Southeast with gusts up to 92 mph
Temperature 43F
Humidity 65%
Pressure 28.32 in. Hg
Visibility: 2.5 miles
Overcast at a height of 800 ft
mist
This is the 12z GFS total accumulated snowfall map through 240 hours. The 12z ECMWF is very similar. Good agreement for a significant snowstorm across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, and a significant snowstorm across portions of the Northwest down into the Central Plains. Some areas in the South may even see accumulating snow.

Euro now stalls the upper low near the east coast of FL and keeps E C FL wet thru Monday. Tricky forecast ahead as this upper low could be a slow mover.


Quoting 414. Stefaneik:


When in 2011 they gave the name Rolf at the tropical storm 01M was original or the same of the previous frontal zone that gave the birth at the system after the cut-off?



As far as I can see, "Rolf" has been at first the name of the frontal zone:


(Click to enlarge).

Edit: Interesting, the system formed nearly at the same day of the year. German Wiki got a large article about "Rolf" wich caused 11 deaths.
Quoting 425. HuracanTaino:

In Puerto Rico has been raining since yesterday without stopping, schools didn't close but there was low attendance since parents in most schools around the island kept their children home,most rivers are already cresting and the whole island is under flash flood warning till tomorrow, and perhaps could be extended through the whole week end,unfortunately... the low pressure is moving over the DR, but Haiti is getting the dry side of the system, thanks goodness....


It's the same over here. Last time I checked my "Home Depot" bucket, I was over 6 inches in the last 48 hours. Probably over 7 now. I'm so relieved that Haiti is avoiding this. It would be devastating for them!
GFS 12z parallel and ECMWF 12z look fairly similar. Looking forward to the well below normal temperatures and increased chances of snow as the models are showing a rather active southern jet that definitely will need to be monitored. Snow chances looked good across most of the plains region, through the Lakes, and Ohio River Valley.
Quoting 422. StormTrackerScott:

This looks promising. Also as I stated the rains start early to mid afternoon Saturday as I know there was some confusion with a couple on here about that.




No confusion Scott. The NWS has a good handle on this.
Silent youtube just with some loops of the current cyclone in the Mediterranean:


Noisy video showing the very recent flooding in Malta due to this system:
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=856296537734 896
The upcoming GFS upgrade sure looks promising.
Nowcast as of 3:04 PM EST on November 7, 2014
Northwesterly winds across the region will continue to bring patchy smoke from fires in northwestern Palm Beach County into the East Coast Metro areas. A resident in Boca Raton reported light ash falling to the ground. Residents with respiratory problems should exercise caution. The winds are forecast to become easterly tonight into Saturday with improving air quality expected.
Quoting 427. Sfloridacat5:

Shemya, Alaska, United States
Eareckson Air Station

The report was made 13 minutes ago, at 19:20 UTC
Wind 68 mph from the Southeast with gusts up to 92 mph
Temperature 43�F
Humidity 65%
Pressure 28.32 in. Hg
Visibility: 2.5 miles
Overcast at a height of 800 ft
mist



Any wave height data?
Quoting 426. barbamz:

Uff, at your service I managed to grasp some gifs of the eye of our "medicane" passing over the island of Malta (south of Sicily) and put them together to an animated gif. Source is Malta Radar.




Malta? What's going on over there? I'm hearing you guys talk about a "medicane" but is anyone calling it tropical?
Quoting 435. WxLogic:

The upcoming GFS upgrade sure looks promising.


Let's hope so.
Quoting 420. Sfloridacat5:

Highest wind forecast I've seen.



Western Aleutians

Zone Forecast


For More Weather Information:

Anchorage, AK Local Forecast Office


Today Rain...heavy at times in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Highs in the mid 40s. Southeast wind 50 to 70 mph with gusts 80 to 90 mph.

Tonight Rain showers. Lows around 40. Southwest wind 50 to 70 mph with gusts 80 to 90 mph.
Saturday Rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest wind 50 to 60 mph. Gusts to 80 mph in the morning.


I found one that was higher. It was a forecast for the MS gulf coast during katrina. It's at 1:12 in the video.

Link
Quoting 438. TimTheWxMan:



Malta? What's going on over there? I'm hearing you guys talk about a "medicane" but is anyone calling it tropical?


Read back a bit, Tim, please (this is going on for hours now), or have a look at my blog where most of the news are collected in the comment section, if you like.
Quoting 430. barbamz:



As far as I can see, "Rolf" has been at first the name of the frontal zone:


(Click to enlarge).

Edit: Interesting, the system formed nearly at the same day of the year. German Wiki got a large article about "Rolf" wich caused 11 deaths.

So if they make the same choice to keep the name of the non tropical phase will be Qendresa I.

Having fog with winds gusting to 90mph is weather I am not familiar with. Here in Florida, we get fog when the air is pretty still.
18Z NAM is similar to the 12Z Euro with showing rains Saturday thru Monday. Interesting to see if the GFS follows this trend as the NAM is showing totals over 3" over Brevard County to West Palm Beach.

Quoting 445. StormTrackerScott:

18Z NAM is similar to the 12Z Euro with showing rains Saturday thru Monday. Interesting to see if the GFS follows this trend as the NAM is showing totals over 3" over Brevard County to West Palm Beach.


Quoting 441. barbamz:



Read back a bit, Tim, please (this is going on for hours now), or have a look at my blog where most of the news are collected in the comment section, if you like.


Wow, it dumped a lot of rain on western italy!
Quoting 443. luvtogolf:

Having fog with winds gusting to 90mph is weather I am not familiar with. Here in Florida, we get fog when the air is pretty still.
because of warmer that normal waters up there its to be expected and more than likely become the norm
18Z WRF is now following the Euro & the NAM too. If this does occur then the eastern half of FL could be in for some big rainfall totals as the Upper nearly stalls west of FL on Sunday big change from early today on the models.

Monday Afternoon

From the Miami NWS Disco...

MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE BIG
BEND REGION OF FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 2 INCHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS COULD TRAIN ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BUT ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT DEPICTING ITS DEPARTURE. THE
GFS PULLS THE H5 TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS FLORIDA BY EARLY MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
DIGS THE TROUGH A BIT DEEPER AND IS SLOWER IN EXITING THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF KEEPS LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. FAVORED THE GFS FOR NOW AND CONSENSUS WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


I found one that was higher. It was a forecast for the MS gulf coast during katrina. It's at 1:12 in the video.

Link


Oh for sure. Lots of hurricane forecasts with wind speeds much higher than 90mph.


This was the highest wind speed I could find for the storm in the Bering Sea.

Earlier Shemya, Alaska had a gust of 92 mph. That's some serious wind for a system that is no longer tropical.
We could see some gust over 100mph at some locations.
1600 sfc temp depiction

u can see how warm it is over ocean area compared to areas to the nw n ne of there

<----- Big Duke NOLA 7 back online on the wu Big Loop.

Quoting 450. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco...

MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY DEEP H5 TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE BIG
BEND REGION OF FLORIDA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 2 INCHES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS COULD TRAIN ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES BUT ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT DEPICTING ITS DEPARTURE. THE
GFS PULLS THE H5 TROUGH OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS FLORIDA BY EARLY MONDAY. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
DIGS THE TROUGH A BIT DEEPER AND IS SLOWER IN EXITING THE AREA. AS
A RESULT...THE ECMWF KEEPS LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. FAVORED THE GFS FOR NOW AND CONSENSUS WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.


Some of the 18Z models are following the Euro. If this happens then some areas of eastern FL could be in for a bunch of rain. NAM has totals in excess of 3" from Orlando east toward the Space Coast south to West Palm.
Quoting 444. Stefaneik:

Flooding video from Malta


Now it's also on youtube:

Quoting 454. Patrap:

<----- Big Duke NOLA 7 back online on the wu Big Loop.


where have you been hope u are well

was getting ready to sent out a search party for ya
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20141107 1800 12.1 108.0 T1.0/1.0 96E 96E





It roughly reads "The wind speed at 2300 hours reached 75 mph
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 12.1N

D. 108.0W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
Quoting 408. win1gamegiantsplease:



Who would've thinked South Carolina would beat Missouri to it? There should be betting lines on first city to see snow, reminds me of Kramer and the Texan gambling on which airplanes would arrive/depart first.


Winter of 1972-73 New Orleans had two 1" snow events.
Winter total for DCA (Washington National Airport) was 0.1" the entire season!
Quoting 456. barbamz:



Now it's also on youtube:


everything is fine we have nothing to worry about perfectly abnormal normal conditions
463. wxmod
Earthquake swarm northern Nevada. Right at the surface. ???

2.9 67km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 12:37:53 UTC-08:00 1.0 km
3.5 68km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 11:19:55 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
3.4 69km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 10:39:20 UTC-08:00 0.6 km
3.0 66km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 10:24:09 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
3.1 67km SE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 06:24:31 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
2.6 67km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 04:24:12 UTC-08:00 0.5 km
3.0 74km SE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 03:13:35 UTC-08:00 9.6 km
2.6 66km SE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 03:07:23 UTC-08:00 0.3 km
2.6 67km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 02:39:04 UTC-08:00 1.2 km
2.7 69km SE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 01:42:42 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
2.6 66km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 00:40:14 UTC-08:00 0.2 km
4.7 67km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-07 00:05:54 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
2.7 68km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 23:25:11 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
4.1 68km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 22:58:40 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
2.8 65km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 22:40:02 UTC-08:00 1.9 km
3.3 69km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 22:06:07 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
2.7 68km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 20:31:47 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
2.5 69km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 20:02:34 UTC-08:00 0.7 km
2.8 71km SE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 18:56:52 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
3.4 65km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 17:51:11 UTC-08:00 1.2 km
2.6 75km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 17:47:51 UTC-08:00 5.0 km
2.9 65km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 17:44:27 UTC-08:00 0.5 km
2.5 70km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 16:21:40 UTC-08:00 5.0 km
2.7 67km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 16:11:14 UTC-08:00 1.6 km
3.1 69km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 15:53:20 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
2.7 67km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-11-06 15:36:06 UTC-08:00 0.0 km
2.9 59km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon 2014-
Quoting 395. Sfloridacat5:

Snow/ice all the way down to S.E. Texas. Look at the stacked isobars down in S. Texas (Blue Norther).



Our cold air damming on the Eastern Seaboard is a mesoscale phenomenon and occurs when shallow cold
air gets trapped to the lee of the appalachians.

The cold air damming that occurs to the east of the Rockies is much more dramatic, much deeper, synoptic scale, and can drive arctic air south
to the Yucatan Peninsula though it does moderate a lot over the Gulf of Mexico. The pattern on the map is a classic blue norther signature and is common in the cold season in the Plains.

The most impressive cold air damming in the world though occurs on the lee side of the South American Andes which are taller than the Rockies. This allows cold fronts to drive deep into Amazonia, far north of the tropic of capricorn from the south a few times a winter. I've wondered what would happen if South America weren't so narrow at midlatitudes on south.. what kind of arctic airmasses could form there and then drive straight north.
Italian "medicane": Here it comes from the south, along the coast of Sicily:



Saved radar loop. Here the source for updates.

If you compare the radar to the forecasted path below (still on some twitter news) you see that something went wrong:
Quoting 459. Grothar:


It roughly reads "The wind speed at 2300 hours reached 75 mph


Nice, thank you Gro! We've got a hard time to cover this tropical event in Europe properly :-)
Quoting 459. Grothar:






It roughly reads "The wind speed at 2300 hours reached 75 mph

It's kinda funny how this thing formed pretty much right under our noses just out of the blue. Goes to show that we should never EVER let our guard down when it comes to weather systems.
The Bering Bomb is down to 944mb per the 18z OPC surface analysis. Another 20-25mb to go.
Question..the stronger the Bering Low is the more stronger the Arctic blast will be?
Quoting 465. barbamz:

Italian "medicane": Here it comes from the south, along the coast of Sicily:



Saved radar loop. Here the source for updates.

He made a sharp turn northward after the passage over Malta untying from the forecasted track.




(the track is based on the MOLOCH model of CNR)
Quoting 451. Sfloridacat5:



Oh for sure. Lots of hurricane forecasts with wind speeds much higher than 90mph.


This was the highest wind speed I could find for the storm in the Bering Sea.

Earlier Shemya, Alaska had a gust of 92 mph. That's some serious wind for a system that is no longer tropical.
We could see some gust over 100mph at some locations.


Considering ex-nuri is forecast to be stronger than sandy, i wouldn't be surprised if there were wind gusts that strong.
Quoting 465. barbamz:

Italian "medicane": Here it comes from the south, along the coast of Sicily:



Saved radar loop. Here the source for updates.

If you compare the radar to the forecasted path below (still on some twitter news) you see that something went wrong:

As KOTG just Said:-

"Everything is fine we have nothing to worry about perfectly abnormal normal conditions."

Just give us a week and everything will probably return to normal, normal conditions!
Exactly Stefan #470, thank you. On the other hand: waters are cooler up to the north, so the system should loose some strength.



Edit: Lol, looking at the map by myself more closely: waters aren't cooler to the north than to the east in this region right now. (When I was vacationing and hiking in Sicily in the month of November some years ago, waters were still quite warm. Although barely any Italian would have entered them any more, lol. And no tourists around as well.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...FRONT HAS COME TO A SCREECHING HALT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEE AS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT NRLY TO SRLY
AT KOBE (VIA THE LAKE BREEZE). WINDS ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS HAVE FLOPPED AROUND TO NERLY OWING TO WEAK ECSB COMPONENT.

OVERNIGHT-SAT...SRN STREAM H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TX/OLD MEX
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GOMEX OVER THE NEXT H24...WITH A NRN
STREAM COUNTERPART DIGGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BY
SAT EVENING (FEATURES LOOK TO PHASE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUN). MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TO SW WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS VEER FROM NE TO SE...
SETTING THE STAGE FOR UPGLIDE/OVERRUNNING OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT
STARTS TO PIVOT BACK NWD. AIR MASS WILL START TO SATURATE "TOP DOWN"
AROUND 09Z OR SO...BUT IT WILL TAKE MOST...IF NOT ALL DAY TO MOISTEN
UP THE SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BETWEEN H85-H50. EXPECT MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON TO FEATURE THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF NON-ACCUMULATING PRECIP (SPRINKLES) AT FIRST...FOLLOWED
BY A LOW END (20-30 PCT) CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. DAYTIME
CHCS WILL INCREASE TOWARD SUNSET...AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND. MIN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 50S (L60S COASTAL BREVARD SWD). MAXES IN THE U70S TO
L80S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT...ELEMENTS ARE IN PLAY FOR A CLASSIC WARM FRONTAL PRECIP
EVENT ACRS CENTRAL FL. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS COMING TO A HALT OVER THE
CENTRAL GOMEX/CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT...H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES RUNNING BTWN 70-90PCT.
ALOFT...A ZONAL 70-80KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL GOMEX TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA GOMEX WILL PROVIDE UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE THAT WILL INDUCE A WEAK SFC LOW TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE WRN GOMEX. THIS LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SHORT
WAVE MID LVL TROF PUSHING ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL PUSH IT
E/NE ACRS THE FL PENINSULA AFT SUNSET.

MID LVL WINDS BACKING TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WILL
GENERATE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PUSHING THE
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE BAND BACK TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS. BY THEN...THE ASCENDING LEFT EXIT QUAD OF THE JET
STREAK WILL BE IN POSITION TO GENERATE A STEADY SOURCE OF UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE...WHILE A SERIES OF H85-H50 VORT MAXES OVER THE WRN
GOMEX/NRN MEXICO CONSOLIDATES INTO A RESPECTABLE MID LVL IMPULSE
OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GOMEX. H50 TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -10C MAY ALLOW A
FEW TSRA TO DVLP...BUT THE MID LVL TEMP PROFILE IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
STRONG/SVR WX AS UPSTREAM H70-H50 LAPSE RATES ARE LARGELY AOB
6.5C/KM.

WILL BUMP PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 80 PCT ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...DECREASING TO 60PCT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TO REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE ANTICIPATED FROPA. LIGHT NRLY WINDS AND RAIN
COOLED AIR WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE U50S/L60S OVER THE INTERIOR...
AND INTO THE L/M60S ALONG THE COAST.
Well, I guess that sums up my weekend!
Maybe a storm surge setup for Venice, Italy depending on the track of the Low.
Bering Sea System starting to wrap up.
Quoting 475. Sfloridacat5:

Maybe a storm surge setup for Venice, Italy depending on the track of the Low.


Well, "nice", as Venice already is (a little - comparatively) flooded due to the bad weather the days ago:

Quoting 465. barbamz:

Italian "medicane": Here it comes from the south, along the coast of Sicily:



Saved radar loop. Here the source for updates.

If you compare the radar to the forecasted path below (still on some twitter news) you see that something went wrong:



Wow, I bet there's going to be a lot of angry sicilians at that busted forecast!
Guess so. But everybody stresses the fact that Europeans (and their means and models) aren't designed to forecast somehow tropical systems ...

Well, after all what I've seen, I think the system should loose its strength soon, as an Italian weather site thinks as well. Translating:

Moving towards the east, the TLC will gradually tend to weaken, because it is affected by the rising drier air masses from Libya, which inhibit the swirling action and should lead to a slow but gradual downgrading (tomorrow it should already have lost almost full consistency). Source Meteo Portale Italia.

Edit: On the other hand: If the system continues to go quite due north, some orographic conditions might help (high mountains to its left, as there is Etna; similar to the Bay of Campeche perhaps). And it might push high waters into the narrow Strait of Messina ... Well, we'll know soon ;-)

I have to go now, but leave you the updating Italian radar below. Good night everybody, and thank you, medicane, for preventing me from doing other useful things this afternoon, lol.



Here is the latest and very current video from Siracusa/Sicily, as the storm arrives. It's night though.
Quoting 473. barbamz:

Exactly Stefan #470, thank you. On the other hand: waters are cooler up to the north, so the system should loose some strength.



Edit: Lol, looking at the map by myself more closely: waters aren't cooler to the north than to the east in this region right now. (When I was vacationing and hiking in Sicily in the month of November some years ago, waters were still quite warm. Although barely any Italian would have entered them any more, lol. And no tourists around as well.)

If it continues the strenghtening also over coolder waters it's not a surprise for the Med sea, the stronger system on record, Celeno in january 1995, reached category 2 winds over 16°C waters mantaining deep convection and a wonderful satellite appearance with a well definied eye



Quick question. How do these Mediterranean "tropical-like systems" develop over such cool water such as the Category 2 "hurricane" over 16C water temperatures? Is it very cold air aloft helping thunderstorm activity thrive?
Quoting 481. Tornado6042008X:

Quick question. How do these Mediterranean "tropical-like systems" develop over such cool water such as the Category 2 "hurricane" over 16C water temperatures? Is it very cold air aloft helping thunderstorm activity thrive?

Right so, at least according to the exhaustive English Wikipedia article, quoting:


Factors required for the formation of medicanes are somewhat different from those normally expected of tropical cyclones; known to emerge over regions with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below 26 °C (79 °F), Mediterranean tropical cyclones often require incursions of colder air to induce atmospheric instability.[4] A majority of medicanes develop above regions of the Mediterranean with SSTs of 15 to 26 °C (59 to 79 °F), with the upper bound only found in the southernmost reaches of the sea. Despite the low sea surface temperatures, the instability incited by cold atmospheric air within a baroclinic zone—regions with high differences in temperature and pressure—permits the formation of medicanes, in contrast to tropical areas lacking high baroclinity, where raised SSTs are needed.[15] While significant deviations in air temperature have been noted around the time of Mediterranean tropical cyclones' formation, few anomalies in sea surface temperature coincide with their development, indicating that the formation of medicanes is primarily controlled by higher air temperatures, not by anomalous SSTs.[16] Similar to tropical cyclones, minimal wind shear—difference in wind speed and direction over a region—as well as abundant moisture and vorticity encourages the genesis of tropical cyclone-like systems in the Mediterranean Sea.[17]
Gusts of 100 mph and pressure of 978 mbar in the "Medicane"
Quoting 483. pablosyn:

Gusts of 100 mph and pressure of 978 mbar in the "Medicane"

When it pass over Malta a PWS in the northern coast registered a pressure of 978,6 hPa and sustained wind of 110,9 km/h with 153,7 km/h maximum gust, after this moment it stayed over open waters so we don't have data even if the satellite appearance become better so it could be stronger now.


its look like a hurricane to me
Pressure went up 3mb at Shemya, Alaska the past hour so the Low must have moved past that location. SW winds should indicate the low is to their NW.

28.32 = 956mb


The report was made 6 minutes ago, at 22:56 UTC
Wind 52 mph from the Southwest with gusts up to 68 mph
Temperature 43°F
Humidity 81%
Pressure 28.32 in. Hg
Visibility: 6 miles
Few clouds at a height of 1700 ft
Broken clouds at a height of 2400 ft
Overcast at a height of 6500 ft
Nearby Weather Stations at 6pm 11/7/2014 cold night
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
44.2 °F

Rock Hill
43.9 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
47.7 °F
Foxon
43.2 °F
East Haven Town Beach
44.1 °F
Branford Shoreline
45.2 °F
There is a rapid pressure fall on the eastern coast of Sicily despite the system is moving toward north over the sea, a PWS of Siracusa registered a pressure of 987 hPa, or the minimum is deeper or is larger than it was over Malta.

Latest satellite loop

Severe Weather Europe is just freaking out, lol:

WOW WOW!! Here is something extremely rare in Europe, if not visible so nicely and clearly for the first time!! Remember the satellite images of Tropical Like Cyclone (TLC) / "Medicane" over Malta this afternoon? Here is now its perfect structure on radar scan from Italian radar network. Simply incredible to see such a radar scan in Europe!


Source: protezionecivile Italy
Quoting 406. flsky:

What a shame this lovely place, notwithstanding the weather, is ruined by graffitti.

I thought the Italians invented graffiti .....

Quoting 438. TimTheWxMan:



Malta? What's going on over there? I'm hearing you guys talk about a "medicane" but is anyone calling it tropical?
Looks more STS in some ways...

Quoting 454. Patrap:

<----- Big Duke NOLA 7 back online on the wu Big Loop.


Howarya, pat....
Quoting 481. Tornado6042008X:

Quick question. How do these Mediterranean "tropical-like systems" develop over such cool water such as the Category 2 "hurricane" over 16C water temperatures? Is it very cold air aloft helping thunderstorm activity thrive?
I'm pretty sure the doc had a blog on that topic some years back when we last saw one of these.... I'm also thinking about the last couple of hurricanes we had at the end of 2005, which persisted in remarkably cold waters by tropical standards...
2100 PM UTC statement from JMA. (6:00 AM JST)

STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW (T1420) 934 HPA
AT 54N 168E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST 25 KNOTS
The eyewall photographed from Malta during the passage of the system over the island (from Severe Weather Europe facebook page user comments).

493. SLU
This is a big blow to the ego of the "doomsday preppers":


And now it's global COOLING! Return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 29% in a year

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict.


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
496. vis0
CREDIT:: euMETsat
SUBJECT:: Medicane (as mods & others have used that term/description)

(Joined continents not a general public product, means its not free. Why i only used euMETsat when i'd create the Tropical Season monthly review (utube 2010,11,13 and would stitch Africa through GoMx using free SAT. imagery. NOT this year only stitching October 2014 Tropical storms as damaged HD in early Sept. 2014 has all images from May-early Sept. Remember its posted 7-9 days after each month and removed come the new year. 


http://youtu.be/hJ-6-10bEkE
Org. dimensions (2256x892)

Quoting 422. StormTrackerScott:

This looks promising. Also as I stated the rains start early to mid afternoon Saturday as I know there was some confusion with a couple on here about that.




Indeed. I'm happy to see the forecasted rainfall totals increasing. This does look like a promising rain event after all. I'm going to mow my lawn in the morning tomorrow in case the rains start in the afternoon.
498. jpsb
Quoting 308. Xyrus2000:



No, they don't. The media does. Scientists make their points in their research, which the media rarely reports on (or if it does so, it does so inaccurately).

As an expert in my field (software engineering), people will ask me questions like "How long do you think this will take?" or "What kind of framework do you think they're using on that project?". They aren't asking me to sit down and do a full engineering process to come up with an answer. They want to know, based on my experience, what a rough estimate is. This is SPECULATION. It's an educated guess. It's couched in qualifiers, caveats, and exceptions.

That article was talking about the 2007 massive ice melt. They asked the scientist to speculate about the ice loss. He speculated that if the ice loss continued at the rate of 2007 then in about 5 years there would be an ice free arctic summer. It was said to show the magnitude of the ice loss, which was quite impressive, but beyond that it had no scientific bearing.

This would be like you getting a 4 inches of snow in an hour and saying "If it keeps snowing like this then in 3 days well have 24 feet of snow!" Yes you're getting heavy snow. But I doubt anyone would honestly believe you think it will keep snowing at that rate for 3 days straight.

It's hard to believe I actually need to explain this to someone other than my kid.



"Expert"? Really? Hmmmm, obviously "your field" is more interested in fiction than fact.

Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'




Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections.

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
499. jpsb
Quoting 359. TXEER:

Wow...cold in Winter...I'm shocked!



Winter begins on Dec 21, today is November 8. Winter does not start for another 6 weeks. Right now the season is Fall, not Winter. Even if you use the new (BS) winter start date of Dec 1, we are still not in Winter.