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Typhoon Nuri Poised to Become an Alaskan Super Storm; TD Vance Hits Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:22 PM GMT on November 05, 2014

Typhoon Nuri is down to Category 1 strength as it steams to the northeast at 11 mph towards Alaska. Satellite loops show that Nuri has maintained a large area of heavy thunderstorms, but the eye is no longer visible, and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots is significantly disrupting the storm. Nuri will lose its tropical characteristics on Thursday as it becomes embedded in a cold front. As the extratropical version of Nuri moves into the Bering Sea to the west of Alaska on Friday, a very powerful jet stream will interact with the storm and cause it to rapidly intensify into one of the strongest low pressure systems ever observed in the Pacific Ocean. Ex-Nuri's central pressure is forecast to drop from around 970 mb late Thursday night to about 918 mb late Friday night. The 00Z Wednesday run of the European model predicted that ex-Nuri would bottom out near 918 mb at 03Z Saturday, about 300 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Aleutian Island, Attu. The 00Z Wednesday GFS model had the storm reaching 918 mb 300 miles north of Attu. The NWS in Anchorage is predicting that a large swath of hurricane force winds will be possible from Shemya eastward to Adak and Atka in the Aleutian Islands late Friday into Saturday, with seas building to 45 feet or higher. A storm surge of 2' is predicted at St. Lawrence Island on Saturday morning, and over 1' at Nome.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nuri in the Pacific at 04:10 UTC November 5, 2014. At the time, Nuri was a weakening Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 105 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Predicted sea level pressure for 03 UTC Saturday (10 pm EST Friday, November 7, 2014) from the 00Z Wednesday run of the European model. Ex-Nuri is predicted to be at peak intensity at that time, with a 920 mb closed isobar falling between the Russian station Nikol'Skoe and Attu Island in Alaska's Aleutian Islands.

Ex-Nuri predicted to become one of Earth's strongest storms on record
According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the all-time Alaska low pressure record is 27.35" (926 mb) at Dutch Harbor on October 25, 1977. Ex-Nuri would have a chance to beat that record if its center passed over one of the Aleutian Islands on Saturday morning, but it appears that when the storm is at peak intensity, the center will miss any Aleutian Islands by a wide margin. Ex-Nuri is also likely to fall short of the lowest estimated pressure for any extratropical storm world-wide, the 26.96" (913 mb) pressure estimated for a January 11, 1993 storm off the Shetland Islands in the North Atlantic (documented in Christopher C. Burt's book, Extreme Weather.) Mr. Burt has a comprehensive post on all these records in his November 10, 2011 post, Super Extra-tropical Storms; Alaska and Extra-tropical Record Low Barometric.


Figure 3. Surface analysis for late evening October 25, 1977 when Alaska’s strongest storm in history deepened to 926 mb (27.35”) over Dutch Harbor on the Aleutian Island of Unalaska. Chart drawn by and supplied by wunderblogger Steve Gregory, who worked with the Ocean Routes Company (now WNI) in Alaska at the time.

Vance makes landfall in Mexico as a tropical depression
What was Category 2 Hurricane Vance on Tuesday morning made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast southeast of Mazatlan Wednesday morning as a mere tropical depression with 30 mph winds. High wind shear of up to 50 knots rapidly tore apart the storm as it approached the coast. Vance is pushing inland to the northeast at 13 mph, and will dissipate Wednesday afternoon. Moisture from Vance is streaming to the northeast over Texas, and Flash Flood Watches are posted from Del Rio to Austin for 1 - 2 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches.


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of weakening Tropical Storm Vance off the Pacific coast of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon November 4, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Steve Gregory plans on doing a guest post in my blog Thursday afternoon: the forecast for the coming winter.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanx doc....918mb....impressive
Thank you, Dr. Jeff Masters.
curious about vance......one model takes it across mexico and dumps it in the gulf.....could this then be a broad low..or is there a chance for formation......gives me something to check out instead of look at political comments this morning...enjoy folks
I am keeping an eye on Nuri. I know that it won't directly affect me (at least it isn't supposed to). But being the storm of the century it is something to watch.

Have a good Wednesday everyone. We can now rest easy since the the political ads are finally over.
Yea! New blog entry! The election is over! You won/lost (cross out that which does not apply). Let's move on. Oh, almost forgot, thanks Jeff...
GOOD BLOG!!
Thanks Doc, just hope "The Deadliest Catch " is listening!
Thank you, Dr. Jeff Masters u are the best!
Thanks Doc.
Thank you, Doc! This is a nice close-up from ECMWF-prediction of what Nuri is going to look like. I've searched for something like this in vain until now, lol.

----------------------------------

And good afternoon folks. Here some news from rain-stricken Italy (if I have time I'll try to dig deeper for some metereological data; but it looks like the country is still there):

Carrara/Tuscany today. Carrara is famous for its marble quarries (Link: I took this photos two years ago while hiking this region). I think you can see some of the marble blocks in the flooded mill:



Tuscany residents saved as floods hit Italy
The Local (Italy), Published: 05 Nov 2014 11:27 GMT 01:00
UPDATED: Two residents in Tuscany have been found after being reported missing in floods, while five others have been airlifted to safety, according to Italian media reports.
The two missing people were saved by rescuers in Carrara, the town's prefect and Mayor Mayor Angelo Zubbani told Il Tirreno. The news corrects an earlier report that one of the two people had died.
Both had been living close to a sawmill on the edge of the Carrione river, which burst its banks following hours of torrential rain.
Around 200 metres of riverbank collapsed as waterways in the area failed to contain the downpour, Il Tirreno said.
Five people who had been working in the town's sawmill climbed onto its roof and were airlifted to safety by helicopter. Hundreds more families are unable to open their doors for fears their homes will be flooded.
Schools have been closed in Carrara, which is halfway between Florence and Genoa, while trains have also been stopped. ...


Tornado in Catania/Sicily.



Meteo.it.


Twitter. This photo should show a house in Acireale/Sicily which was hit by the tornado (Source and Photo Gallery). Actually I'm not quite sure whether there was one or were two different tornadoes in Sicily (Catania and Acireale); probably two different events.

Thanks Dr. Masters.
High Wind Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

AKZ023-026-052300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.141106T0000Z-141106T0900Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
525 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

* LOCATION...PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING
SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND...KUIU ISLAND...SOUTHERN KUPREANOF
ISLAND...ETOLIN ISLAND AND ZAREMBO ISLAND.

* WIND...25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING...
THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF
ISLAND...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH LATE. STRONGEST CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

* IMPACTS...THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE BRANCHES TO FALL ONTO POWER
LINES. BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY ALERT FOR FLYING DEBRIS AND
DOORS SLAMMING SHUT.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS STORM.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
WEATHER NEWS SOURCE FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 2 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

Northeast |
- A cold front pushes into the region with a few showers possible, mainly across far northern New England.
- Showers are most likely in West Virginia and western Virginia.
- Low pressure racing through the Midwest Wednesday night spreads the rain northeastward through Virginia, Maryland and Delaware into Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
- Thursday the rain falls in the whole region except northern New England.
- Temperatures remain on the warm side of average Wednesday with highs in the 50s over the interior and 60s and lower 70s from Massachusetts to Virginia.
South |
- A slow-moving cold front works on an atmosphere rich in moisture to produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in south and east Texas into Thursday.
- Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with high spots over 3 inches is possible through Thursday.
- Flooding is possible, especially in southern Texas where the rain could linger into Friday.
- Rain and showers also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee and northern Alabama Wednesday.
- Wednesday night the showers push into southern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas.
- Showers linger in those areas Thursday morning before drying up.
- Warm temperatures continue east of the rain Wednesday and Thursday with highs generally in the 70s and lower 80s.
- It will be cool in the rainy areas with highs primarily in the 50s and lower 60s.
- Slightly milder behind the rain area with highs in the middle and upper 60s in northwest Texas and Oklahoma Wednesday
Thank you Dr. Masters
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB04-2014
17:30 PM IST November 5 2014
==================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 13.0N 87.5E, about 580 km west northwest of Port Blair, 690 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 810 km south southeast of Paradip.

It would move northwestwards initially and intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the dvorak intensity is T1.5. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough. The convection is sheared to the west of the system. Estimated central pressure of the depression is 1002 hPa.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 17.5N and 82.5E to 88.5E. Cloud top temperature is -93C. A buoy located near 14.0N 87.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1002.5 hPa and surface wind of 010/19 knots. Another buoy located near latitude 15.0N 90.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1003.0 hPa and surface wind of 080/12 knots. Another buoy located near 12.0N 88.8E reported surface wind of 250/20 knots.

The sea surface temperature around the region of depression area is 29-30C. However it is less over northern Andhra Pradesh coast (26-28C) and near Odisha and West Bengal coast (27-28C). The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around the system. However it is less than 50 kj/cm2 over parts of west central bay and over northern Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear shows no significant change during past 24 hrs and is about 10-20 knots (moderate) around the system center. It is higher towards the north. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 24 hours. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the east northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 hPa level runs along 15.0N.
prediction for the lowest pressure of Superstorm Nuri.
912mb.
Actual: ????????
Current: 960mb
Quoting Dakster:
I am keeping an eye on Nuri. I know that it won't directly affect me (at least it isn't supposed to). But being the storm of the century it is something to watch.

Have a good Wednesday everyone. We can now rest easy since the the political ads are finally over.

Yea, since all that presidential junk is gone.
Revolving Door, Weather
Weather Channel Cuts 40 More Staffers
By Chris Ariens on November 5, 2014 10:55 AM

Pink slips are being handed out this morning at the Weather Channel. As many as 40 staffers are being cut from the ranks of senior producers, show producers, and weather producers, insiders tell TVNewser.

“After a careful analysis of our business, we made the difficult decision today to eliminate roles across all functions and levels,” a spokesperson tells TVNewser.

Today’s cuts come just a month after another round of layoffs at the Atlanta-based company. Those cuts came from the product and technology group which was created in July as part of a larger reorganization at the company. The network says today’s cuts conclude the reorganization process, leaving a total of more than 80 people looking for work. About 1,300 people work for the Weather Company.

“The television business is shifting and in order for us to compete in the future, we need to reallocate and better focus our resources on what we know our audiences want,” the spokesperson says. “The changes we are making today are necessary, difficult and the responsible way for us to move forward.”

Bloomberg recently reported that two of the three owners of the Weather Channel — private equity firms Blackstone Group and Bain Capital — may be looking to sell their interest. The third owner is NBCUniversal. The three acquired the Weather Channel in 2008.
Quoting ncstorm:
Revolving Door, Weather
Weather Channel Cuts 40 More Staffers
By Chris Ariens on November 5, 2014 10:55 AM

Pink slips are being handed out this morning at the Weather Channel. As many as 40 staffers are being cut from the ranks of senior producers, show producers, and weather producers, insiders tell TVNewser.

“After a careful analysis of our business, we made the difficult decision today to eliminate roles across all functions and levels,” a spokesperson tells TVNewser.

Today’s cuts come just a month after another round of layoffs at the Atlanta-based company. Those cuts came from the product and technology group which was created in July as part of a larger reorganization at the company. The network says today’s cuts conclude the reorganization process, leaving a total of more than 80 people looking for work. About 1,300 people work for the Weather Company.

“The television business is shifting and in order for us to compete in the future, we need to reallocate and better focus our resources on what we know our audiences want,” the spokesperson says. “The changes we are making today are necessary, difficult and the responsible way for us to move forward.”

Bloomberg recently reported that two of the three owners of the Weather Channel — private equity firms Blackstone Group and Bain Capital — may be looking to sell their interest. The third owner is NBCUniversal. The three acquired the Weather Channel in 2008.

Not good. OH NO!!!! HELP US!!!
Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:

High Wind Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2014

AKZ023-026-052300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.W.0011.141106T0000Z-141106T0900Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA


To be clear that is NOT for the Nuri storm, Nuri is still SE of Japan.
last frame of the 12z CMC
“The television business is shifting and in order for us to compete in the future, we need to reallocate and better focus our resources on what we know our audiences want,”

to me, this seems like they cut Research and Development. but I admittedly have no idea. would love to get some insight.
Quoting MahFL:


To be clear that is NOT for the Nuri storm, Nuri is still SE of Japan.


Here's a special weather statement for later this week for Adak Island AK in reference to Nuri.


Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
919 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

AKZ155-161-181-185-187-191-051930-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-BRISTOL BAY-ALASKA PENINSULA-EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-WESTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND...
KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...PILOT POINT...COLD BAY...
SAND POINT...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI...ATKA AND ADAK...
SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA
919 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...HIGH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED AS TYPHOON REMNANTS CREATE A
MAJOR STORM IN THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM MAY CREATE HIGH SEAS AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS STARTING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.WEATHER BRIEFING.

THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FROM REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI.

TODAY...NURI IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE THURSDAY
AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
LOW WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS THE CURRENT
RECORD LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN THE BERING SEA IS 925 MB
MEASURED AT DUTCH HARBOR ON OCTOBER 25 1977.

.WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

A LARGE SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SHEMYA EASTWARD TO ADAK AND ATKA LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 45 FEET OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER
...DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RESULTING HIGH
WINDS. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED MARINE
VESSELS.

.PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HIGH SEAS OF 22 TO 32 FEET ON A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FETCH ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED
MARINE VESSELS.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND COASTAL EROSION MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN BERING REACH SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. HOWEVER...THESE SEAS SHOULD NOT BE AS HIGH AS WHAT THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THERE IS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE BERING SEA.

THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND THIS STATEMENT
UPDATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHEN NEW DATA IS
AVAILABLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR MARINE VHF, NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE
ALASKA WEATHER SHOW AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES...AS
WELL AS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOCIAL MEDIA AND
WEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE.

$$
Nov. 14th looks like freezing temps down to San Antonio Tx. region.


France deluged with massive rainfall
BBC weather video. 5 November 2014 Last updated at 16:04
Rain soaked southern France has been hit by more torrential downpours and Nice has seen it's second highest rainfall total since records began. Vineyards are counting the cost of all the wet weather with the grape harvest reduced by 20% to 30%. Ben Rich reports for BBC World
Quoting 11. barbamz:


IN IMAGES: Violent storms lash the French Riviera

The French Riviera and part of the south of France were hit by violent storms this week that saw one woman killed in a mud slide, roads flooded, power cuts and rivers burst their banks. Here's a selection of the dramatic images.

Link
Quoting 27. Sfloridacat5:

Nov. 14th looks like freezing temps down to San Antonio Tx. region.



I'm going to be in Newark next Wednesday thru next Friday and boy does it look cold when I leave on the 14th.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I'm going to be in Newark next Wednesday thru next Friday and boy does it look cold when I leave on the 14th.


The CPC has painted blue across the eastern half of the country in the 6-10 to 8-14 time frame. Cooler temps than normal look likely.

12Z Euro is firing up the snow gun again for the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma at 210hrs. Euro has a big storm gathering across Texas with Arctic air getting into the mix as well. Texas maybe in for some fun later next week if the Euro pans out.
Wow! Euro has heavy snow in OKC at 240hrs with a severe weather outbreak occurring in SE Texas, Lousiana, & Arkansas. If this Euro pans out then long track tornadoes would occur.



Notice the strong jet noising into a moist South flow coming into East TX & LA.



I know its unlikely and conditions are dry in the caribbean and I have no doubt shear is high...no surprise...but what are the chances of the tail end of that cold front now pretty much stalled out in the eastern caribbean could pinch off a little spinny area and as it wraps around re moisturize the area to its west?
Euro now has its first big storm coming across the South so far this Fall season in its long range model. Something to keep an eye especially with so much Arctic air moving in and colliding with a warm humid airmass near the Gulf Coast.

WOW! I have never seen this cold of an airmass in early November before being projected by the models.

Look at the GFS at 168hrs.

This looks a hell of a lot like the 1976/1977 Winter.
And this is for those banking on a Dry weekend across the Florida Penisula. Looks very rainy it appears starting Saturday afternoon going thru Sunday afternoon before clearing out. Could get 1" to maybe 2" this weekend from Tampa to Orlando.





GFS has been pretty consistant on a low crossing Florida this weekend.
It can't make up its mind whether it crosses central Fl. or southern Fl.
Either way it looks like a good chance of rain this weekend.
Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:

GFS has been pretty consistant on a low crossing Florida this weekend.
It can't make up its mind whether it crosses central Fl. or southern Fl.
Either way it looks like a good chance of rain this weekend.



GFS has had a stripe of heavy rain going just north of where the low passes with stronger storms south of the low.

12Z GFS

UK on course for warmest year on record

New figures published by the Met Office show the period from January to October this year has been the warmest since records began in 1910 - and it has also been the second wettest.

Link


Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:



I'm going to be in Newark next Wednesday thru next Friday and boy does it look cold when I leave on the 14th.


That freeze line cuts awful close to my location in VA. Bring it on old man winter.

(Click to enlarge; saved loop). Total precipital water (MIMIC) presents: Nuri still south of Japan in the WPAC; something biggish is going on in the Indian Ocean; nothing is going on in the Atlantic; Vance is vanishing in the EPAC due to landfall ...
I'll be very interested in seeing the satellite presentation of the Bearing Sea Bomb, may even acquire an eye like feature.

Quoting 28. barbamz:



France deluged with massive rainfall
BBC weather video. 5 November 2014 Last updated at 16:04
Rain soaked southern France has been hit by more torrential downpours and Nice has seen it's second highest rainfall total since records began. Vineyards are counting the cost of all the wet weather with the grape harvest reduced by 20% to 30%. Ben Rich reports for BBC World


Thanks for the link Barb.
Its worth watching as it shows how things can go badly wrong with the usual/normal weather.

I was in Southern France 2 weeks ago where I saw a valley bottom forrest flatened horizontal like it was grass, even though the trees were fully grown. Probably 100 yards wide under the high bridge I was standing on, in the foothills of the Pyranees mountains south of Pau.
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:

Euro now has its first big storm coming across the South so far this Fall season in its long range model. Something to keep an eye especially with so much Arctic air moving in and colliding with a warm humid airmass near the Gulf Coast.

WOW! I have never seen this cold of an airmass in early November before being projected by the models.




I do not think it is all that uncommon for this time of year to see some deep cold air intrusion. Last year we saw something similar.

Link
Surface temperature in India follows global warming trend -

The IPCC report said the period from 1983 to 2012 was probably the warmest 30-year period in the last 1400 years.

Though data for that long is not available in India, a consistent rise in temperature is being observed in the surface temperature over the country, in conformity with the global trend. The opening decade of the 21st century was the warmest decade in the last 110 years at least. The mean temperature, averaged over the entire country, between 2000-2010 was almost 1 degree Celsius higher than that between 1901-1910. Eight of the ten warmest years since 1900 have also been recorded in this decade.

- See more at: Link
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1146 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014

...OCTOBER 2014 WAS DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...


DESPITE A FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MUCH OF OCTOBER WAS PRETTY DRY.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGES AND LIGHTER
WINDS AT NIGHT LED TO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH MOSTLY CONTRIBUTED
TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR OCTOBER.
Quoting 43. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I'll be very interested in seeing the satellite presentation of the Bearing Sea Bomb, may even acquire an eye like feature.



Probably, chances must be better than 50% with that low preasure.
What's interesting if you watch the loop, the big Bering Sea Bomb rotates around the Bering Sea and gradually weakens over time before moving into mainland Alaska.

Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:

And this is for those banking on a Dry weekend across the Florida Penisula. Looks very rainy it appears starting Saturday afternoon going thru Sunday afternoon before clearing out. Could get 1" to maybe 2" this weekend from Tampa to Orlando.








GFS shows no rain through November 8th in Tampa.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


GFS shows no rain through November 8th in Tampa.


Based on the 12Z GFS, Sunday has the best chance of rain across most areas of Fl.
Subject to change with future runs.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


GFS shows no rain through November 8th in Tampa.


Remember to pick the model that best fits what you want to happen.
Quoting 51. Sfloridacat5:



Based on the 12Z GFS, Sunday has the best chance of rain.


I was told earlier today that I'd eat crow due to the fact that local Tampa mets showed a 0% chance of rain for Saturday, and how that forecast was way wrong. I wish it would rain both days as we need it, but so far Saturday looks dry and Sunday looks to be the best chance for rain.
Southern Plains Rains Diminish
South |
- After a soaking rain in the southern plains Wednesday this system will shear out as it tries to move east.
- The result will be the rain dissipating Wednesday night and Thursday in Texas, while some lighter rain showers streak across the gulf coast states toward the Carolinas.
- By Thursday afternoon much of the region will be dry with just some lingering showers in south Texas.
- High temperatures on Thursday will be close to average for the region.
- Mainly dry conditions will continue into the weekend.


wow look at all this blue color in the next 10 days!!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NURI (1420)
3:00 AM JST November 6 2014
==============================

270 km West of Chichi-jima

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nuri (965 hPa) located at 27.2N 139.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center in northern quadrant
210 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 35.8N 147.0E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of Japan
48 HRS: 52.0N 168.0E - Extratropical Low East of Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia)
Yecchh:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Yecchh:



Polar Vortex come early? hehe
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I was told earlier today that I'd eat crow due to the fact that local Tampa mets showed a 0% chance of rain for Saturday, and how that forecast was way wrong. I wish it would rain both days as we need it, but so far Saturday looks dry and Sunday looks to be the best chance for rain.


Hopefully this weekend will bring rain to most of Florida.
Over the past 30 days, the majority of Florida is running 1-2" below normal.

We're 15" below normal for the year down here in Fort Myers so we really need rain here.
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:

Euro now has its first big storm coming across the South so far this Fall season in its long range model. Something to keep an eye especially with so much Arctic air moving in and colliding with a warm humid airmass near the Gulf Coast.

WOW! I have never seen this cold of an airmass in early November before being projected by the models.



Madison, WI, has been as low as 0 F on November 5th; Chicago has been into the single digits as early as the 12th, while St. Louis has done so as early as the 8th; and Duluth has been below zero as early as November 2nd. So while the Euro is hinting at anomalously cold across much of the US by mid-month, that map shows nothing really close to record-breaking.
Quoting 59. Sfloridacat5:



Hopefully this weekend will bring rain to most of Florida.
Over the past 30 days, the majority of Florida is running 1-2" below normal.

We're 15" below normal for the year down here in Fort Myers so we really need rain here.


My next water bill is going to be insane as I've been running my sprinklers twice a week.
Quoting WxGuy2014:


Polar Vortex come early? hehe


To me, Polar Vortex conditions put areas of the Midwest well below 0.
I can remember temperatures like -20 last year associated with the "Polar Vortex" across the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
Quoting 50. tampabaymatt:



GFS shows no rain through November 8th in Tampa.

No, what you posted there shows no rain through 7am Nov 8th morning. 12z is 7am. Scott is saying it will start raining Saturday afternoon.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB04-2014
23:30 PM IST November 5 2014
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lays centered near 13.5N 87.5E, about 600 km west northwest of Port Blair, 650 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 760 km south southeast of Paradip

It would move nearly northwards initially and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the dvorak intensity is T1.5. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough. The convection is sheared to the west of the system. Estimated central pressure of the depression is 1002 hPa.

Additional Information
=====================
Sea condition is rough to very rough. The convection is sheared to the west of the system center. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 16.5N and 82.0E to 88.0E. Cloud top temperature is -93C. A buoy located near 13.5N 84.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1008.4 hPa and surface wind of 350/17 knots. Another buoy located near 16.5N 88.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1005.7 hPa and surface wind of 020/19 knots.

The sea surface temperature around the region of depression area is 29-30C. However it is less over north Andhra Pradesh coast (26-28c) and near Odisha and West Bengal coast (27-28C). The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80kj/cm2 around the system. However it is less than 50 kj/cm2 over parts of west central bay and over northern Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear shows no significant change during past 24 hrs and is about 10-20 knots (moderate) around the system center. It is higher towards the north. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 24 hours. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the east northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 hPa level runs along 15.0N.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


My next water bill is going to be insane as I've been running my sprinklers twice a week.


Yeah, we're doing two days a week too.
We still have to hand water some of the flowers and such because two days a week isn't enough with this bright sunshine and lower humidity values.

Quoting 63. Skyepony:


No, what you posted there shows no rain through 7am Nov 8th morning. 12z is 7am. Scott is saying it will start raining Saturday afternoon.


I may have posted the wrong graphic, but the GFS model runs on Levi's site show no rain through Saturday in Tampa. Please post the GFS model run that shows it will rain Saturday in Tampa.
Quoting 57. Neapolitan:

Yecchh:


I guess we have only three seasons now..spring, summer , and winter...:)
Good night from Germany 1.) with the surface map for tomorrow. As much as I could follow Italian media there are massive (and for me a bit surprisingly high) measures of precaution due to possible flooding in the next two days in certain areas. F.e. all schools will stay closed tomorrow in Rome which isn't exactly a tiny town. In detail conditions are hard to predict (as Italian weather sites confess) because of two interacting lows of "Qendresa" in central Mediterranean (as the season progresses, names in the alphabetical list have reached the "Q"-letter as well with lows as with highs, so names become a bit funny).


Surface analysis for tomorrow.


Current airmasses.


What more? I withhold myself to report how leading German media are commenting the outcome of yesterday's US elections and the obvious winner of the game. I myself am sad for your president, related to the climate issue and everything else; I still think he is true in his maybe idealistic attitude. A wise old christian man, close to politics in Germany, once has said, "politics are a mere ruthless affair". Unfortunately close to reality.

2.) Here are the temperature anomalies a week ahead, according to GFS. Chilling times looming for most of the US, but - yaawwwn - still too warm days for Europe (and what is going on in Alaska next week. Is this former Nuri??). I've saved the weekend to come for wrapping my plants on my balcony into protective tissues, but obviously no need to do so yet.


Source (click "Animation" to get the loop).

All the best!
GEOS-5 is starting to cut that low off more & more over TX, meandering it before it gets to the Gulf of Mexico & then bring it to FL more like Sunday. There has been enough evolution & change in the tract of this all along that even later wouldn't surprise me. Interesting how much moisture it gains again over water again this last run.

Quoting 57. Neapolitan:

Yecchh:


Wat is yecchh.?
Quoting tampabaymatt:


GFS shows no rain through November 8th in Tampa.


Parallel GFS does.

Quoting 55. hurricanes2018:



wow look at all this blue color in the next 10 days!!


time for the winter apparel..

Although later in the month, I remember bitter cold on Thanksgiving day in SC (well, bitter by SC standards). Remember having to stop and put air in all of my wife's tires because of the large temp drop. Road trip to Ohio where they already had 8" of snow on the ground from the weekend prior.

Quoting 45. smog00:



I do not think it is all that uncommon for this time of year to see some deep cold air intrusion. Last year we saw something similar.

Link

Quoting 71. CybrTeddy:



Parallel GFS does.




That is through Nov 10th.
Event into space in USA on Wednesday, 05 November, 2014 at 14:15 (02:15 PM) UTC.
Description
More than 500 people in at least 14 states from Georgia to Ohio reported seeing a fireball Monday. In Greater Cincinnati, at least 14 people witnessed the bright meteor between 6:18 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. A witness in Cincinnati saw it while driving. It was "very bright as no stars were visible with highway light pollution and almost full moon," the witness said in a report to the American Meteor Society. A Milford resident told the society she thought the fireball was a helicopter at first. "Looking out my window, the light came toward our house and passed over it," she said in the report. "We have a lot of helicopters that fly over our house and I thought it was a helicopter until I noticed that there was no sound. You can usually hear helicopters quite loudly as they pass over. And the light was more yellow/green than a helicopter's bluish light." The American Meteor Society reports the meteor's impact point was near the border between Webster and Randolph counties in West Virginia.


I've seen reports that several meteors were sighted that night but that a few may have been from this...



Quoting 66. tampabaymatt:



I may have posted the wrong graphic, but the GFS model runs on Levi's site show no rain through Saturday in Tampa. Please post the GFS model run that shows it will rain Saturday in Tampa.

I didn't really find the gfs all that reliable on Vance to go dig it up.
As you can see most of Florida is down 1-2" of rain over the past 30 days. So this next rain event is important, because a reinforcing shot of cool dry air will come in behind it.
Quoting 72. ncstorm:



time for the winter apparel..




LOl, Ralphie's is the all time favorite story at our house during Christmas!
Quoting 77. tropicofcancer:



LOl, Ralphie's is the all time favorite story at our house during Christmas!


My christmas isn't complete without watching A Christmas Story..love it!!
Quoting 74. tampabaymatt:



That is through Nov 10th.


Here is Saturday evening and as you can see the rain begins and then gets heavy toward mid night and there after.

Saturday Evening


Around mid night or just after


Local Tampa mets have released an updated 7-day forecast. Saturday is still looking dry until very late in the day/night, into Sunday. I'm hoping for some decent rains.
Quoting 80. StormTrackerScott:



Here is Saturday evening and as you can see the rain begins and then gets heavy toward mid night and there after.

Saturday Evening


Around mid night or just after



So now it's Saturday evening and not Saturday afternoon? LOL
Quoting tampabaymatt:


That is through Nov 10th.


My bad, misread your post. I think though we will see a rain event on Sunday and gorgeous weather throughout the week.
stormtracker scott looks like cold air for florida
Quoting 82. tampabaymatt:



So now it's Saturday evening and not Saturday afternoon? LOL


12Z runs slowed some and as Skye said could slow even more but either way rains will increase later Saturday and could get heavy at times with embedded thunder as well as strong short wave drops ESE toward FL.


also just updated
Wow! 912 mb! Thats one mb below the record that Dr. Masters mentioned.
Quoting 87. StormTrackerScott:



12Z runs slowed some and as Skye said could slow even more but either way rains will increase later Saturday and could get heavy at times with embedded thunder as well as strong short wave drops ESE toward FL.



37. StormTrackerScott







0

+






And this is for those banking on a Dry weekend across the Florida Penisula. Looks very rainy it appears starting Saturday afternoon going thru Sunday afternoon before clearing out. Could get 1" to maybe 2" this weekend from Tampa to Orlando.



Link



And some said it would be gone by now.......
Quoting 92. tampabaymatt:




37. StormTrackerScott







0

+






And this is for those banking on a Dry weekend across the Florida Penisula. Looks very rainy it appears starting Saturday afternoon going thru Sunday afternoon before clearing out. Could get 1" to maybe 2" this weekend from Tampa to Orlando.



That's what is forecast and your point. It seems you just come on to insight trouble. Weird.
Quoting 94. StormTrackerScott:



That's what is forecast and your point. It seems you just come on to insight trouble. Weird.


Haha. Now if that's not the pot calling the kettle black.
From Miami NWS...

.LONG TERM...

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SATURDAY, THE OLD FRONT AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH. THE LOW
STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AND THE UPPER JET. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIMESTEP,
SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION WHERE PWATS ARE CLOSEST TO 2
INCHES. INSTABILITY INCREASES SOMEWHAT, ALONG WITH THE INCLUSION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET, SUGGESTS A GOOD SWATH OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW PRESSURE RACES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, EASTERLY FLOW
AND COASTAL SHOWERS RETURN.
Awesome computer graphics: Scientists recreated in 3D the life cycle of the May 24, 2011 EF5 tornado that went through the Hinton to Guthrie, Oklahoma area (not the infamous El Reno tornado from 2013)

The video contains no sound as it was given with a presentation live. Jump to around the 3 minute mark for the 3D animations.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8gsosWFh-I#t=538

More info:
http://thevane.gawker.com/scientists-create-spect acular-3-d-model-of-an-ef-5-torn-1654628141

Dr. M.
I wonder if there is anybody from the eastern caribbean that can provide some insights on the system afecting us...just curious...

Quoting 95. Grothar:



Yikes!
Quoting 67. hydrus:

I guess we have only three seasons now..spring, summer , and winter...:)


Not really, at least in the mid Atlantic. Fall 1976 could have easily been mistaken for early winter but this fall of 2014 has been typically mild with the obvious cooling trend. No freeze yet in my garden by Nov 1 and only about 30% of the
years go this late without a freeze. Several very light touches of frost though. Temperatures have averaged slightly above normal for the season so far.
I doubt the freeze free period will last much longer. From many recent runs of the GFS, late next week should do it.

Around .6" yesterday and stayed below 50 as never saw the sun in S C IL. Today we're seeing some sunshine, hitting forecast high of 60 thanks to southerly light winds and sun, dew pt 42, 30.09". Supposed to get windy and keep us at or below 50 until Mon.
Quoting JeffMasters:
Awesome computer graphics: Scientists recreated in 3D the life cycle of the May 24, 2011 EF5 tornado that went through the Hinton to Guthrie, Oklahoma area (not the infamous El Reno tornado from 2013)

The video contains no sound as it was given with a presentation live. Jump to around the 3 minute mark for the 3D animations.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8gsosWFh-I#t=538

More info:
http://thevane.gawker.com/scientists-create-spect acular-3-d-model-of-an-ef-5-torn-1654628141

Dr. M.


That's some crazy stuff.
I wish we had computer programs like that when I went to U.T.

104. eddye
sfloridacat 5 u ready for the cold air
removed duplicate
Quoting 89. jdukes:

Wow! 912 mb! Thats one mb below the record that Dr. Masters mentioned.

Indeed . There have been many cat-5,s and Supertyphoons that didnt have a pressure that low.
Always the possibility for rogue waves. Actual sea state would be amazing to see, but you'd probably not live to tell about it.

Quoting 95. Grothar:


Quoting StormTrackerScott:


12Z runs slowed some and as Skye said could slow even more but either way rains will increase later Saturday and could get heavy at times with embedded thunder as well as strong short wave drops ESE toward FL.


I think the models are going to be off on this one. The front has barely moved in the last 12 hours and is now turning stationary. The low that's going to bring rain to Florida has to form off the tail end of the front now over Texas, and it's not moving into the Gulf. I'm afraid this front is going to wash out before it even gets to me, and the tail end of the front is losing all its dynamics. The stalled front has been a help for Texas in terms of rain and I'm hopeful we may get something out of it still, but it's going to be a lot less than what was originally forecast, and it's going to be a lot slower. The low may eventually form, but it looks like sometime late Sunday or even Monday before it gets to Florida, and does not look like any kind of heavy rain event now. If you get an average of an inch, I think you'd be doing good. I think I end up with a quarter inch or less.

Quoting 108. sar2401:



I think the models are going to be off on this one. The front has barely moved in the last 12 hours and is now turning stationary. The low that's going to bring rain to Florida has to form off the tail end of the front now over Texas, and it's not moving into the Gulf. I'm afraid this front is going to wash out before it even gets to me, and the tail end of the front is losing all its dynamics. The stalled front has been a help for Texas in terms of rain and I'm hopeful we may get something out of it still, but it's going to be a lot less than what was originally forecast, and it's going to be a lot slower. The low may eventually form, but it looks like sometime late Sunday or even Monday before it gets to Florida, and does not look like any kind of heavy rain event now. If you get an average of an inch, I think you'd be doing good. I think I end up with a quarter inch or less.




That would really be a shame for FL as we need the rain. However, the comedic effect would be great as some were so quick to say this weekend would be a total washout for FL. I'm still hoping this pans out as a rain event for FL.
Quoting 106. hydrus:

Indeed . There have been many cat-5,s and Supertyphoons that didnt have a pressure that low.


This is stronger than Marie was.
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:

Euro now has its first big storm coming across the South so far this Fall season in its long range model. Something to keep an eye especially with so much Arctic air moving in and colliding with a warm humid airmass near the Gulf Coast.

WOW! I have never seen this cold of an airmass in early November before being projected by the models.




Look to October 1993 for a colder one that verified in the Plains states down to the Texas Gulf Coast. Houston's period of record October low of 29F was reached October 31 of 1993. (Note I do not use "all time" as a synonym for "period of record"]

November 11, 1911 had an extreme arctic outbreak into the southern plains with several stations experiencing record
high temperatures followed by record low temperatures on the same date. Kansas City went from 76F late morning the 11,th to 11 degrees F by midnight.

Actually November 11 is a bad weather day for my family. My grandfather got stuck in the Armistice Day Blizzard in deeply urban MSP in 1940. He told a story of a man stumbling into the hood of his (my grandfather's) snowbound car completely lost in the snow walking in circles unable to find a building. Grandfather said he could see to about the hood ornament only from the drivers seat.

Two generations later I got stuck in the Veterans Day blizzard in DC in 1987. Not as bad but that's the only time I've had to abandon a car in snow (Still had my Florida plates from FSU too). I was within a mile of home after a seven hour, twenty five mile drive from Rockville and I could see buildings so I drove deep into a snowdrift off the road, got out and walked
the rest of the way home. Not as bad as Grandfather's experience.


Quoting eddye:
sfloridacat 5 u ready for the cold air


I'm ready and waiting for more.

47 degrees is the lowest so far this season here in Fort Myers, and that was a record for the date (Nov.2nd).
113. eddye
sfloridacat 5 when the next cold air
New videos emerging from today's tornadoes in Sicily (Italy; see post #11), near Etna Volcano:

Acireale:


Catania (not available on youtube yet):
http://www.youreporter.it/video_VIDEO_SHOCK_IN_PR ESA_DIRETTA_Tornado_si_abbatte_su_Catania
Quoting eddye:
sfloridacat 5 when the next cold air


No real cold air headed our way in the near future. Tuesday will be cooler, but not as cold as the last shot of cool air.

Next week a nice shot of cold air for the central part of the country, but not too cold for southern Florida.

116. eddye
sflorida cat 5 so for Orlando next Friday it could be cold
18Z GFS
00Z Sunday


18Z GFS
06Z on Sunday


18Z GFS
12Z on Sunday
REMNANTS OF VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 PM PST WED NOV 05 2014

Vance made landfall along the coast of Mexico just southeast of
Mazatlan earlier today around 1400 UTC as a tropical depression.
Since then, the low-level center of Vance has dissipated while it
moved farther inland and interacted with the rugged terrain.
Therefore, this is the last advisory issued on Vance by the National
Hurricane Center.

Even though the tropical cyclone has dissipated, moisture from the
remnants of Vance and the area to its south should continue to
spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United
States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas,
which should continue for another day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
Remnants of VANCE

1:00 PM PST Wed Nov 5
Location: 23.3°N 105.2°W
Moving: NE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 25 mph

18z GFS




Quoting 120. ncstorm:

18z GFS







And so it begins!
Quoting eddye:
sflorida cat 5 so for Orlando next Friday it could be cold


No real cold air in the near future. Temps should be mild for the next week or so. A little cool down the beginning of next week, but temps should be just perfect.

This is a long way out (next Saturday/Sunday), but the GFS is showing lows in the 30s for northern Florida and 50s stretching down into Southern Fl.
Quoting 121. georgevandenberghe:



And so it begins!
That appears to be next week, but most likely going to change in future runs.
For West Palm Beach...

Quoting tampabaymatt:


That would really be a shame for FL as we need the rain. However, the comedic effect would be great as some were so quick to say this weekend would be a total washout for FL. I'm still hoping this pans out as a rain event for FL.
I hope I'm wrong and Scott's right since we have no chance for rain if this front doesn't start to perform and we need it really badly. The front has to get through Alabama before it can get to Florida and the dynamics of the whole system are fading. The rain shield is shrinking and the front has moved 50 miles in 12 hours. The high pressure in place across the Mid-Atlantic region was supposed to be moving east so the shortwave trough could slide south to get the front moving and provide a reinforcing shot of energy that would help form the low in the Gulf. All that may happen but I'm afraid most of the moisture is going to be overtaken by the dry air coming down behind the shortwave and this whole system is going to be more dry than forecast. Even Greenwood MS, north of Jackson and directly under these clouds, is only reporting mist and light rain with a total rainfall today of a whopping 0.01". Rats!
Much warmer day. 55/79. Mostly cloudy but a little sun from time to time. A rain chance of 30% has been introduced due to this:

91B:



Models show it generally staying weak, but it certainly looks like it'll bring some heavy rains to whereever it ends up (which looks to be along the north east coast of India). It's currently under low shear, waters of generally 28-29C and has good outflow, so it should still be watched.

Models are also showing another system crossing over from the Gulf of Thailand into the Andaman Sea and then into the Bay of Bengal in about 5 days or so. So that'll be something to watch for, as some of the models seem to be quite agressive with it (notably the GFS)
Invest 97L

Invest 97L
Last Updated Nov 5, 2014 18 GMT
Location 20.9 67.0W Movement NNW
Wind 30 MPH
Wonder if we'll ever see an extratropical storm break 900 mb.
The system that has been causing floods in Puerto Rico for the past 2 days is an Ivest, about time, for us it has the same effects of an storm, we have wave of 15 feets...winds of 45 miles per hour, and the rain continues...
Quoting 133. hurricanes2018:


18Z GFS is trending with heavier rain totals across C FL with 2" to 3" now from Orlando east to Cape Canaveral. Also GFS has the rain moving in late Saturday and last thru mid day Monday now as cut off low forms over FL and sits for 48 hours.


97L...

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:03 PM PST on November 05, 2014
Clear
83.0 °F
Heat Index: 80 °F
Humidity: 13%
Dew Point: 27 °F

Wind: 10.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 20.0 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in (Steady)
Was 85 today and Dry and windy at times.
Mid 80's next 5 days ....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system has developed a couple of hundred miles north
of Puerto Rico. This disturbance is interacting with an upper-level
low and is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. There is some potential for the
low to briefly acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
during the next day or so while it moves northwestward or
north-northwestward. After that time, development is not expected
when the system moves north-northeastward and merges with a frontal
zone. Regardless of formation, locally heavy rainfall and possible
flooding should continue across Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic through tonight. For additional information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please consult products issued by your national
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


cold weather !! only 15F AT night!!
Get ready for a preview of winter next week. An Arctic outbreak will bring the coldest air of the season, beginning Monday in the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

The chilly conditions this time will last longer and will be more widespread than the cold blasts we have seen so far this season.

The cold front will enter Montana and the Dakotas late Sunday night into Monday, bringing much colder temperatures. will go from a high in the 60s on Sunday to highs in the 30s on Monday.
Quoting 120. ncstorm:

18z GFS






Parallel GFS doesn't have a coastal storm at that time period. It is getting to be that time of year when snowstorms show up on the models, though!
some rain for the northeast on thursday and much cooler weather to!!Ahead of a cold front moisture and showers will work northeast from the Virginias into New England Thursday. As colder air catches up to the system the rain showers will change to snow showers from the mountains of PA up into northern New England. As a storm intensifies Thursday night accumulating snow is likely from the mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire up into New England. Northern Maine could get 6-12" of snow Thursday night and Friday.
Historic.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Historic.


Zeus, Posideon and Hades are really gearing up for Superstorm Nuri!
Quoting 144. 62901IL:


Zeus, Posideon and Hades are really gearing up for Superstorm Nuri!
more like super hurricane nurl!!
Quoting 143. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Historic.




If it pans out as the gfs shows. The 1993 january storm was predicted to go down to 909 mb by the UK Met office but ended up at 913 mb. Certainly looking to be the strongest extra-tropical low in 2 decades though!
Quoting hurricanes2018:
more like super hurricane nurl!!

same thing.
superstorm=super hurricane.
Quoting 143. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Historic.




900 mb?! = 26.58". 1935 Florida Keys cane was 26.35", which should put this storm in the awe category . Think about rogue waves. Predicted seas near 50'. Take a couple of peaks that lump together and 90' is not out of the question. Recall a North Sea oil platform that was nailed with something near that height and they weren't in a 900 mb storm.
Quoting 143. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Historic.




"unpresidented" :)
Fun!



Quoting Grothar:

"unpresidented" :)


Your reasoning is unimpeachable.
Quoting rod2635:


900 mb?! = 26.58". 1935 Florida Keys cane was 26.35", which should put this storm in the awe category . Think about rogue waves. Predicted seas near 50'. Take a couple of peaks that lump together and 90' is not out of the question. Recall a North Sea oil platform that was nailed with something near that height and they weren't in a 900 mb storm.

correction: 909mb. still pretty strong.
.
Gotta chase that ACE

Quoting 132. GeoffreyWPB:



I'm right in the middle of that massive train of wet stuff going from Texas to Pennslyvania. Feels like its never gonna end...
Looks like Nuri's going to get pretty close to to the pressure it had as a 180mph buzzsaw. Could make for some interesting weather in Alaska and (indirectly) in the lower 48 too.
Good evening all! Upper level trough is across the central Caribbean and northern south America, it supports a stationary cold front across puerto Rico. It seems as if it will cut off, and meander or die out in a couple days.

Jamaica is on the convergent side of the trough, so mostly fair weather is the order of the day. As Sar said last week, the regional dry season is on the horizon. Though, with enough moisture, instability and temperature gradient to support a cold front, then we get bit of rain from passing cold fronts.

Anyways, how is the weather up north?
Not beliving anything about no snow storm 200+ hours out.Nope nope nope.The GFS has been teribble this year.
Quoting 157. washingtonian115:
Not beliving anything about no snow storm 200+ hours out.Nope nope nope.The GFS has been teribble this year.
Sure wish you would get rid of the Clowns!!!
I don't doubt that this is a big question, but can anyone briefly summarize for me the factors that are allowing Nuri to become such a strong extra tropical storm? Dr masters mentioned the strong jet stream. . . . How does this play in to non tropical storm intensification?



snow!!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
18Z GFS is trending with heavier rain totals across C FL with 2" to 3" now from Orlando east to Cape Canaveral. Also GFS has the rain moving in late Saturday and last thru mid day Monday now as cut off low forms over FL and sits for 48 hours.



Do you think Melbourne had just blown this forecast then? This sounds like Saturday night/Sunday scattered shower/thunderstorm event with everything gone by Monday. No mention of 48 hours worth of rain or 2 to 3 inch totals.

Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming east southeast in the afternoon.
Saturday Night A slight chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 5 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 74. North northeast wind around 5 mph.
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all! Upper level trough is across the central Caribbean and northern south America, it supports a stationary cold front across puerto Rico. It seems as if it will cut off, and meander or die out in a couple days.

Jamaica is on the convergent side of the trough, so mostly fair weather is the order of the day. As Sar said last week, the regional dry season is on the horizon. Though, with enough moisture, instability and temperature gradient to support a cold front, then we get bit of rain from passing cold fronts.

Anyways, how is the weather up north?
Partly cloudy with some high clouds this afternoon and warm, with a high of 78. I'm waiting for a front that was supposed to already be here that's still hung up in NW Alabama and, even there, is producing just mist and light rain. It's one of those fronts that looks good on radar but it seems to be mostly virga under the cloud deck. Another one of those fronts that was supposed to bring us an inch of rain and now it looks like I'll be lucky to get any at all. It's kind of bizarre that you may have a better chance for rain from passing cold fronts than I will. November starts our secondary severe weather season, but this front could take a prize for the most stable cold front ever. :-)
Quoting 161. sar2401:

Do you think Melbourne had just blown this forecast then? This sounds like Saturday night/Sunday scattered shower/thunderstorm event with everything gone by Monday. No mention of 48 hours worth of rain or 2 to 3 inch totals.

Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming east southeast in the afternoon.
Saturday Night A slight chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 5 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 74. North northeast wind around 5 mph.


Sar I just posted the GFS which clearly shows the upper low hanging over FL longer than what the models showed earlier today. These cut off systems are tricky to forecast. Not disputing the NWS just posting the model so no need to get all up in arms for no reason. Upper low now exits Mid day Monday per GFS.



Nino 3.4 nearing 0.7C now.


More rain later next week too. Looking more and more like El-nino is here.

Its all this jet energy over Northern Mexico & the Northern Plains that merge into one over the Gulf and slowly cross FL this weekend.

Quoting HurrikanEB:
I don't doubt that this is a big question, but can anyone briefly summarize for me the factors that are allowing Nuri to become such a strong extra tropical storm? Dr masters mentioned the strong jet stream. . . . How does this play in to non tropical storm intensification?
Part of the reason is that Nuri is bringing a lot a relatively warm air with it. The circulation of this warm air causes it to rise, but then it interacts with Arctic air that's at or below zero. The contrast in air masses then leads to rapid sinking of the previously warm as it cools, and that creates or reinforces, in this case, a low. Nuri already has a central pressure lower than the semi-permanent Aleutian low that's up there almost all winter. It's a combination of a system so deep and large that it's carrying subtropical air to near the Arctic Circle, and the strong jet stream that gets all this sinking air spinning. The Bering Sea is about the only place in the world we could see this kind of phenomena.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I don't doubt that this is a big question, but can anyone briefly summarize for me the factors that are allowing Nuri to become such a strong extra tropical storm? Dr masters mentioned the strong jet stream. . . . How does this play in to non tropical storm intensification?


I'm sure Cody, Kori, among others, can provide a better explanation than I can.

I think it has something to do with the stronger temperature gradient/contrast (creates the jetstream, along with pressure gradient in the upper level) across that area, which generally leads to a trough-ridge pattern. A low will be located on the right side of a strengthening trough; the area with the colder air. Plus, they tilt and strengthen with height. Largely due to stronger winds (lack of, or limited friction above the planetary boundary layer), and colder air in the upper levels of the troposphere.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Sar I just posted the GFS which clearly shows the upper low hanging over FL longer than what the models showed earlier today. These cut off systems are tricky to forecast. Not disputing the NWS just posting the model so no need to get all up in arms for no reason. Upper low now exits Mid day Monday per GFS.



I'm not up in arms, Scott, just posting the official forecast, which seems to be quite different than your interpretation of the models. I see no sign of a cut off low forming and sitting 48 hours. Whatever forms looks progressive to me. So your forecast is rain starting Saturday afternoon and continuing through mid-day Monday with general 2 to 3 inch totals, correct?
Quoting 169. sar2401:
I'm not up in arms, Scott, just posting the official forecast, which seems to be quite different than your interpretation of the models. I see no sign of a cut off low forming and sitting 48 hours. Whatever forms looks progressive to me. So your forecast is rain starting Saturday afternoon and continuing through mid-day Monday with general 2 to 3 inch totals, correct?


A general 1" yes with areas of 2" to 3" per the GFS. I guess its long range though right even though its 3 to 4 days out. NWS will raise rain chances higher if the models keep these trends up. Again key word is IF.
Quoting sar2401:
Partly cloudy with some high clouds this afternoon and warm, with a high of 78. I'm waiting for a front that was supposed to already be here that's still hung up in NW Alabama and, even there, is producing just mist and light rain. It's one of those fronts that looks good on radar but it seems to be mostly virga under the cloud deck. Another one of those fronts that was supposed to bring us an inch of rain and now it looks like I'll be lucky to get any at all. It's kind of bizarre that you may have a better chance for rain from passing cold fronts than I will. November starts our secondary severe weather season, but this front could take a prize for the most stable cold front ever. :-)


Lol! I must confess, I'm happier when wet weather prevails. Though, I hate lightning. :)

I've just noticed something, It has been four years since I've been a member of wunderground. I was using it intermittently since about 2007 though.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION BOB04-2014
5:30 AM IST November 6 2014
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lays centered over central Bay of Bengal near 13.8N 87.5E, about 610 km west northwest of Port Blair, 630 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 730 km south southeast of Paradip.

It would move nearly northwards initially and intensify further into a deep depression during next 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity is T1.5. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough. The convection is sheared to the west of the system. Estimated central pressure of the depression is 1002 hPa.

Additional Information
====================
Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 16.5N and 82.0E to 88.0E. Cloud top temperature is -93C. A buoy located near 13.5N 84.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1008.4 hPa and surface wind of 350/17 knots. Another buoy located near 16.5N 88.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1005.7 hPa and surface wind of 020/19 knots.

The sea surface temperature around the region of depression area is 29-30C. However it is less over northern Andhra Pradesh coast (26-28C) and near Odisha and West Bengal coast (27-28C) . The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around the system. However it is less than 50 kj/cm2 over parts of west central bay and over northern Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear shows no significant change during past 24 hrs and is about 10-20 knots (moderate) around the system center. It is higher towards the north. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 24 hours. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the east northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 hPa level runs along 15.0N.

Quoting 139. hurricanes2018:



cold weather !! only 15F AT night!!
It snowed hard this afternoon. It didn't stick, but there is a day or two coming with highs below freezing so we may get our first snow cover next week.

The snow was pretty, big fluffy flakes, no winds. Nice, real nice.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 165. StormTrackerScott:

More rain later next week too. Looking more and more like El-nino is here.


look like El-nino will be happern soon
Quoting 141. wxchaser97:


Parallel GFS doesn't have a coastal storm at that time period. It is getting to be that time of year when snowstorms show up on the models, though!



actually...If you look at the models closer. The parallel does have the storm, just 12 hours slower, weak and ots. But, I digress. Anything over 120 hours is a shot in the bucket to me. Now, if more than 1 model show something similar come Monday, ill pay attention.

18z reg gfs @ 216:


18z par gfs @ 228:
Quoting 165. StormTrackerScott:

More rain later next week too. Looking more and more like El-nino is here.





sure not looking like EL nino here in CA
Hell yeah Armageddon Baby and flying saucers! :D

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. - Hundreds of reports on social media on Monday night indicate bright green streaks or fireballs flew across the sky in many Southern states.

The timing of the main incident appears to be around 6:20 pm, although some were seen later evening, according to various reports on Twitter, Facebook and a specialized meteor reporting web site.

"Did anyone else see that green flying object near Midland disintegrate in the sky?" wrote Logan Wilson on Twitter.

Elsewhere, in Alabama, a woman reported seeing her second streak in the sky for the day.

"Is the sky falling? Just saw another meteor! Two in one day? This one was green in color falling to the SE looking down 280," wrote AU Tigress on Twitter around 9 pm.

According to the American Meteor Society, there were 2 fireball events on Monday -- one in the morning in broad daylight -- and another around 6:20 pm.

The one in the evening was reported by more than 300 folks on the American Meteor Society website -- with most folks saying the fireball was a vivid green color.

Video of the green fireball shows it moving slowly through the sky.

"Multiple reports of a fireball streaking thru sky in MidAtlantic around 620 pm" the Capital Weather Gang in DC reported on Twitter.

A Twitter follower reported seeing "a green light to white fade ball south sky over Mt Vernon" in Northern Virginia.

Closer to South Carolina, Telaya English reported "a green flash streak across the sky in Huntersville area" -- just north of Charlotte, NC.

Some reports were made from Greenville, SC, Duncan SC, Shelby NC and the Charlotte region, according to a list on American Meteor Society website.

In the morning event, the American Meteor Society, recorded 180 reports of streaks -- or fireballs -- being seen in the skies of several Southern states around 9:30 am Central Standard Time.

In that case, the fireballs were spotted mainly over North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky and southern Ohio.

One expert says the explanation for the fireballs is simply the South Taurid meteors, which are expected and forecast to appear in the sky during this time.

(The) meteors will be flying, but the moon will drown all but the brightest from view. The good news is that, although a modest shower, the Taurids can surprise you with a flamboyant fireball or two! Those fireballs should be visible, even in bright moonlight," wrote Bruce McClure, chief writer for the popular EarthSky Tonight website.








Link
More Snow Ahead
On the heels of last week's first flakes, more snow will blanket the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


A general 1" yes with areas of 2" to 3" per the GFS. I guess its long range though right even though its 3 to 4 days out. NWS will raise rai chances higher if the models keep thse trends up. Again key word is IF.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
907 PM CST WED NOV 5 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN HAS BEEN ERODING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER NORTH ALABAMA.
THE RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT
INTENSITY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER MILD
THIS EVENING WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S. THE
SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN MEMPHIS AND TUPELO...BUT WIND
FLOW BEHIND FRONT IS WEAK AND VARIABLE..AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY
CHANGE IN AIR MASS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. MAIN CHANGE
TO FORECAST WAS TO DELAY ONSET OF RAIN ACROSS THE I-59 CORRIDOR
AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.

Yes, Scott it is long range when the synoptics aren't at all certain. It's not just a matter of days, it's how are things progressing compared to previous forecast periods. This front was supposed to be here by midnight. It was supposed to bring us an inch of rain over 24 hours. The models said so. Instead, it's still hung up in NW Alabama and the front is starting to erode because dry air is getting entrained in the circulation. We will now be lucky to get a tenth of an inch. Models tell you what a computer thinks will happen. What I'm saying is you can look upstream and see what's really happening. If it doesn't agree with previous forecast periods, that's when you start putting a lot less faith in a model.
Welcome to the Winter Weather Watch, your daily briefing on winter weather threats across the nation, by winter weather expert . Bookmark this page and check back for regular updates through spring 2015.

Below is the latest forecast discussion from Tom Niziol, as well as links to jump to the latest forecast and current maps and our list of the 2014-2015 winter storm names. You can either scroll down the page, or click on these links to jump to your section of interest.

- Snowfall forecast: Map showing forecast snowfall totals over the next 48 hours.
- Latest winter radar: See where any snow, freezing rain or sleet is falling now.
- Where's the cold: Current temperatures showing chilly areas.
- Winter storm names: The entire list of names this season and the science behind how we name them.

Clipper produces a narrow swath of marginal snow from Northern Plains through Great Lakes, then energizes off the East Coast to bring shovel-able snow to Interior Maine as we head into the weekend.
A clipper system will move rapidly southeast from the Northern Plains through the Midwest today and Thursday. To the north of that track a narrow swath of snow will fall. Total accumulations will only be in the 3-5 inches range through Wednesday evening because the system is moving along rapidly. However snowfall rates of a half inch or more an hour combined with brisk winds will reduce visibilities and cause some slick roadways.

As we head to the late part of the week, the Low crosses the Appalachians and strengthens along the east coast. Ahead of this Low we will see a lot of rainfall in the warmer air. By the time the colder air filters in across New England on the backside of this system over the weekend, most of the moisture will be well off the coast limiting the potential for snowfall in all but Interior Maine. However, after the pasting they took last weekend this snow could exacerbate impacts for people from Caribou to other interior locations. In fact, at 7 a.m. Wednesday there were still 30,000 people without power in Maine.

Another Blast of Arctic air in store for this weekend east of the Rockies.
There is growing confidence from our model guidance that the atmosphere will set up to produce another arctic outbreak across the eastern U.S. this weekend and into next week. The first blast of colder air comes in Saturday and drops temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees below normal across the East. The second system brings an even colder blast of arctic air from the Upper Midwest through much of the East in the Monday through Wednesday time frame with temperatures departures as much as 20 degrees colder than normal across the Appalachians.

There will not be any major snow makers trapping the cold air in this pattern. However, as that cold air locks in across the Great Lakes, it will “turn them on” to produce lake-effect snow through the latter part of next week. Stay tuned.


more snow in the northeast again


the cold weather will be back soon


the name of the winter storm!! no w name storm yet!!
Quoting nigel20:


Lol! I must confess, I'm happier when wet weather prevails. Though, I hate lightning. :)

I've just noticed something, It has been four years since I've been a member of wunderground. I was using it intermittently since about 2007 though.
So it has. I guess happy anniversary is in order. Time to pay your 10 bucks again too. :-)

I'll taking lighting, thunder, hail, and even a reasonable amount of flooding to get us some rain. We usually see a peak in rainfall in November or early December, mostly thanks to severe weather fronts. After that, we head into our dry period until the middle of March. The plants really depend on getting their roots hardened off before the cold air hits. Now we've already had the cold air and no rain. We had a couple of big, old, rotten oaks get taken down by the 20 mph winds we had before the last front that also bought no rain, just freezing temperatures. We'll start losing healthy trees if we get storms with 40 or 50 mph winds. We started 2014 with the first above average three months in years and it looks like we'll finish 2014 right back in drought.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


the name of the winter storm!! no w name storm yet!!
When are they going to announce the winner?? The suspense is killing me!!
Started raining at about 7:30 PM yesterday, now 10:45 PM. Going on basically 27 hours of nonstop rainfall. Areas of 4-6 inches of rain in and North of SA (Radar has under estimated a lot of the rain.) With the entire region of the state getting at least an inch of rain. I can't remember the last time we got something near this length of time of non stop light/moderate rain. It's been great.

Now just waiting for California's turn.


Quoting 164. StormTrackerScott:

Nino 3.4 nearing 0.7C now.



We are currently in the warm phase of the PDO as my professor said, those warm anomalies off the coast of California and in the Gulf of Alaska have nothing to do with the ENSO.

Just finished a blog that has some highlights from the AMS Conference in it. I know I posted this lastnight but this is a new version with the speaker. It was worth watching twice before, with the rest of the presentation it's certainly worth another watch.
With 22 fireballs spotted lastnight & the ongoing meteor shower, it's not all that surprising to see 3 close flybys coming, 2 are today..

Asteroid Date(UT) Miss Distance Size
2014 UA176 Nov 6 4.8 LD 18 m
2014 UX57 Nov 6 3.6 LD 23 m
2014 UD192 Nov 9 3.1 LD 29 m
Cold front Epic 3 Palmas surf in Rincon







Quoting 189. Skyepony:

Just finished a blog that has some highlights from the AMS Conference in it. I know I posted this lastnight but this is a new version with the speaker. It was worth watching twice before, with the rest of the presentation it's certainly worth another watch.....


Real excellent unique graphics....
SouthCentralTx, rainfall at San Antonio airport has been 4.55" so far.
With the PDO being warm, that ups the chances that we are in for a stronger climate signal from an El Niño. It's amazing how fast it switched the last few months..

ESPI had been in the .70s, I had expected to see some El Niño conditions. It's been around .30 for nearly the last week now though. That neutral pool of water may try & hold out..
Quoting 187. SouthCentralTx:

Started raining at about 7:30 PM yesterday, now 10:45 PM. Going on basically 27 hours of nonstop rainfall. Areas of 4-6 inches of rain in and North of SA (Radar has under estimated a lot of the rain.) With the entire region of the state getting at least an inch of rain. I can't remember the last time we got something near this length of time of non stop light/moderate rain. It's been great.

Now just waiting for California's turn.





/performs rain dance
may become Cyclonic Storm "Ashobaa",,

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB04-2014
8:30 AM IST November 6 2014
==================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over central Bay of Bengal moved north northwestwards during past six hours, intensified into a Deep Depression and lays centered over central Bay of Bengal near 14.0N 87.0E, about 670 km west northwest of Port Blair, 580 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 700 km south southeast of Paradip. It would move northwestwards and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.

It would then move west northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh coast. It would weaken gradually into a depression while reaching near the coast by Saturday night.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
9 HRS 14.4N 86.8E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 14.8N 86.6E - 35 to 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 15.8N 84.8E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
sandy what a freak it was.... texas? is the long term drought over?
SOI continues to be below the -8 El Nino threshold line and is a sign that El Nino may not be far away from being officially declared.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of
Bermuda is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
There is some potential for the low to briefly acquire subtropical
or tropical characteristics during the next 24 hours while it moves
generally north-northwestward. After that time, the system is
expected to be absorbed into a developing non-tropical low over the
western Atlantic. Regardless of formation, locally heavy rainfall
and possible flooding could continue across Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic through this morning. For additional information
on the heavy rainfall threat, please consult products issued by your
national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
long term drought for puerto rico must be over too. good news
Not much in the form of rain for the FL peninsula this weekend, totals look like a quarter to a half inch at most. Nothing to write home to mama about lol. It wont be around long then it dries out again for the foreseeable future.

Through sunday, not much.


Through tuesday.


Quoting 203. WxGuy2014:

Not much in the form of rain for the FL peninsula this weekend, totals look like a quarter to a half inch at most. Nothing to write home to mama about lol. It wont be around long then it dries out again for the foreseeable future.

Through sunday, not much.


Through tuesday.





Saturday appears to be dry as well. I guess I won't be eating crow for listening to my local mets in Tampa. Some were so sure that Saturday would be a washout. Sigh....
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Saturday appears to be dry as well. I guess I won't be eating crow for listening to my local mets in Tampa. Some were so sure that Saturday would be a washout. Sigh....


I just follow the local mets and the offical NWS forecasts. The noise about all this rain coming i just block out cause it wont happen. Im just glad its finally fall and the humidity is basically gone and its dry for long periods. Enjoy the nice weekend ahead!
Quoting WxGuy2014:
Not much in the form of rain for the FL peninsula this weekend, totals look like a quarter to a half inch at most. Nothing to right home to mama about lol. It wont be around long then it dries out again for the foreseeable future.

Through sunday, not much.


Through tuesday.




The models keep changing slightly with each run.
The front is going to stall and a weak low will form along it.

GFS is showing a small area with some decent rain, but most of the state the amounts are pretty low.
I'm hoping the heavier rain shifts to the south over S.W. Fl. It will all depend on where the Low tracks and the front stalls out over the state.


img src="
Hello everybody with a short visit.


Click to enlarge. Rainfall in Italy and the Alps the last 24 hours (Nov 5). Source.

Very sad:

Mother and child killed in Ticino landslide
The Local (Switzerland), published: 06 Nov 2014 08:48 GMT 01:00
A landslide that swept a home away claimed the lives of a 31-year-old woman and her three-year-old daughter in the canton of Ticino, cantonal police said on Thursday.
The slide carried away the house in a heavily wooded area in Bombinasco at around 6.15pm, police said in a statement.
The victims, who were renting the home, were retrieved by searchers including a dog team, fire fighters and police officers, at 4.30am on Thursday, the statement said.
Police said the landslide occurred on a steep slope and wiped out the equivalent of 4,500 cubic metres of wood, mainly from chestnut trees.
Claudio Zali, cantonal minister of lands, said the area was not considered at risk for such an event.
"Things like this should not happen, but we must be aware that extraordinary events such as this can happen," Zali told Italian-language broadcaster RSI.
"We must remember that we live in a mountainous canton and when rainfall is exceptionally heavy, as was the case over these past few days, things like this can happen."
Zali, who went to the location of the slide to observe the start of the rescue operation, passed on his condolences to the victim's family.
He also said that the canton would re-evaluate its method of determining the risk of such events happening elsewhere.
The landslide follows heavy rain in the canton over the past day after a windstorm swept through the Alps earlier this week. ...



Rain forecast for today. Source.
Sandy won't be the worst storm to ever hit NJ shore. There's evidence that worse storms have hit in the past. Sandy was a fluke and should have been a wake up call. It really wasn't. My grandparents built their beach house in the 1930's where they did and how they did for a reason. It was well behind the protective natural dunes (which have been erased so you can have an ocean view) and it was not winterized because it was intended to be a seasonal dwelling that might possibly be wiped off the map at some point. It survived Sandy but the houses built in front of it did not. Nor did most homes north and south of it where the dunes were removed.

That well-known picture from Sandy of the bridge that just goes into the ocean is the Mantoloking bridge. Basically when you get to the bottom of the bridge, you are below sea level and the ocean is 400 yards away. That's why it was underwater. Basically the ocean reconnected with the bay. It was also a natural inlet that was filled in early in the 20th century. I'm fairly certain that is part of the area where the steel wall is being constructed. I can't comment on that wall since I just heard about it on this blog the other day. All I can say is that it better be pretty high. Also it won't stop the back flooding from the bays.

My thoughts have always been a slow-moving, multi-day coastal winter storm (Nor'easter) would be more destructive than Sandy. Or possibly a series of intense winter storms.

Quoting 197. islander101010:

sandy what a freak it was.... texas? is the long term drought over?
Looks like El-Nino will be officially declared in December. SOi continues to tank in a major fashion and Nino 3.4 is now at 0.7C .


SOI values for 06 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -10.6
Average for last 90 days -8.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -27.2

Quoting 202. hurricanes2018:




Looks like I might be leaving Newark with some snow around next Friday.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like El-Nino will be officially declared in December. SOi continues to tank in a major fashion and Nino 3.4 is now at 0.7C .


SOI values for 06 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -10.6
Average for last 90 days -8.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -27.2



It's about time, a lot of people have been thinking it would start for the past 6 months and even though its late to the party it appears a weak El Nino is in store for a short period of time.
Quoting 206. Sfloridacat5:



The models keep changing slightly with each run.
The front is going to stall and a weak low will form along it.

GFS is showing a small area with some decent rain, but most of the state the amounts are pretty low.
I'm hoping the heavier rain shifts to the south over S.W. Fl. It will all depend on where the Low tracks and the front stalls out over the state.


img src="


GFS, NAM, & Euro bring a swath of 1" to 2" rains across C FL Late Saturday thru all of Sunday. Then more rain appears likely later next week as well so it appears we are now entering an active phase across FL going forward.

Here's next Friday.
sorry for you guys but i dont think this part of e. cen fl. needs any rain for months. we got that saturated.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


GFS, NAM, & Euro bring a swath of 1" to 2" rains across C FL Late Saturday thru all of Sunday. Then more rain appears likely later next week as well so it appears we are now entering an active phase across FL going forward.

Here's next Friday.


Do you have any official NWS forecasts or discussions that show this? All i see is a quarter to half inch of rain. Im afraid the models you are looking at will be wrong.
Quoting 212. WxGuy2014:



It's about time, a lot of people have been thinking it would start for the past 6 months and even though its late to the party it appears a weak El Nino is in store for a short period of time.


I wouldn't count on a short El-Nino as this could last thru 2015 infact the models increase the values heading into next Summer. Well see what happens but a multi year warm enso might come to fruition.

M 4.7 - 68km ESE of Lakeview, Oregon
2014-11-06 00:34:46 UTC-08:00
Location
41.904°N 119.656°W
Depth
5.3km
swarms

As the extratropical version of Nuri moves into the Bering Sea to the west of Alaska on Friday, a very powerful jet stream will interact with the storm and cause it to rapidly intensify into one of the strongest low pressure systems ever observed in the Pacific Ocean. oh boy
Quoting 214. islander101010:

sorry for you guys but i dont think this part of e. cen fl. needs any rain for months. we got that saturated.


ST. Johns is still crazy high. I was shocked to see the water still very high just last week. A wet Winter because of El-Nino could flood many homes along the river as a prolonged dry period doesn't seem likely this year and into next year.

From my blog



Look what the CPC is forecasting for second week of November.
Quoting 217. StormTrackerScott:



I wouldn't count on a short El-Nino as this could last thru 2015 infact the models increase the values heading into next Summer. Well see what happens but a multi year warm enso might come to fruition.


I highly doubt this last through next summer.
s. of haiti thats a upper level system?
Quoting 220. washingtonian115:

I highly doubt this last through next summer.


The fact that El-Nino is coming on late increases the possibility of El-Nino lasting atleast thru next summer in a weak to moderate fashion but again well see how the models trend the next few months.
For my area:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
633 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON, WNW AROUND 8 KTS. OTHERWISE E TO NE WINDS OF THE SAME
SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST THU NOV 6 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA`S
WEATHER PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BE RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL
LOWER TO A MODERATE RISK THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE ONLY AFFECTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED SO
THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT LOOKING TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY, A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO, WITH THIS
AIRMASS ORIGINATING SO FAR TO THE SOUTH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK QUICKLY MODIFYING THE AIRMASS BUT REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
Quoting 214. islander101010:

sorry for you guys but i dont think this part of e. cen fl. needs any rain for months. we got that saturated.


Tell that to my yard.
Quoting 224. emcf30:



Tell that to my yard.


My yard is very dry too but the ST. Johns River is still running very high. A wet Winter & Spring could be trouble for some living along the river.
Quoting WxGuy2014:


Do you have any official NWS forecasts or discussions that show this? All i see is a quarter to half inch of rain. Im afraid the models you are looking at will be wrong.



Overall this shouldn't be a big rain event. My area of S.W. Florida may only get a little bit of rain. I'm hoping for more because we are an area of Florida that really needs the rain (15" below normal).

Next chance of rain is the following SAT/SUN (Nov. 15/16) based on the GFS.

There's a large area of Florida that has only received around 1" or less of precipitation in the past 5 weeks(1-2" below normal since the beginning of Oct.) So some rain is needed for most of the state to keep the vegetation from drying out and increasing the fire risk.



Look at the GFS parallel.

Cold air across most of the US with heavy rain across FL. This could set the stage for a coastal low along the mid Atlantic with snow spreading up toward the NE US.





much cooler weather
My area (Lee County) is in a High Fire Risk and the dry season just started.

If we don't get frequent rains during the dry season the fire danger will just increase.
These stronger cold fronts with high winds and low humidity will create very high fire danger if we don't get some decent rains.



rain and snow on the east coast todAY
233. MahFL
Quoting 213. StormTrackerScott:



...Then more rain appears likely later next week...


JAX NWS says moisture will be limited with the cold front next week.
Most of the US going to be very cold compared to average later next week.

Quoting 229. Sfloridacat5:

My area (Lee County) is in a High Fire Risk and the dry season just started.

If we don't get frequent rains during the dry season the fire danger will just increase.
These stronger cold fronts with high winds and low humidity will create very high fire danger if we don't get some decent rains.




I wonder why they show Pinellas county as such a high fire risk. It got dumped on all throughout September. Seems a little premature.
Quoting 231. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



That good ol polar vortex looks like it's here to stay. BrRrrRrrr!!!
Quoting 233. MahFL:



JAX NWS says moisture will be limited with the cold front next week.


Models are trending wetter next week as FL seems to be the battle ground from Arctic air north to warm moist air across the Gulf & FL. Could get interesting later next because if we do see a big influx of moisture across FL then this could lead to a coastal low off NC that spins up and heads for New England and causes a big storm from NYC to Boston.

I think the thinking for the people in NE US should be if you see FL getting a lot of rain then you may want to watch out for something riding North along eastern Seaboard.
238. MahFL
Surprised RI is in mod drought, though a good amount of rain seems to be heading there today.



the trend of having nice lawns is harming to our environment. pesticides and fertilizer runoff have put a toll on our mosquito lagoon so much so during summer it is now against the law to fertilize. it will take years if we are lucky for it to come back..... hope everyone has a nice day.

Source. (Saved image). Average winds.

Italy's boot got a very stylish coloring, lol, due to a cut-off low forming right now in the central-southern Mediterranean. Estofex.org got a detailed discussion, quote:

A level 2 was issued for Italy and Sicily and surrounding areas including the coastal regions of the Balkans mainly for excessive rain, but also for tornadoes and large hail, the latter mainly in the southern portions.
A level 1 was issued for large parts of the central Mediterranean surrounding the level 2 area mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS
... At lower levels, rich Mediterranean moisture is in place ahead of the forming cut-off low. This moisture partly overlaps with steep lapse rates originating from the Atlas mountains. ...

DISCUSSION
Sicily and surrounding Mediterranean, southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy to Adriatic
With a strong low-level jet, warm and well-mixed air masses from the Sahara desert are advected into the Mediterranean. Across the Mediterranean, this elevated mixed layer overlaps with substantial moisture as sampled by latest Trapani sounding. CAPE can reach values near 2000 J/kg as indicated by latest GFS model run. ...




BTW: the red tornado triangle on this map is related to a pair of very elegant waterspouts at the coast of Liguria (northern Italy) this morning:


Photo: Nicola Ferrarese via LiguriaInside.it / Keraunos Observatoire
Folks this is from the GFS Super Ensemble runs and this model has the 1976/1977 winter as our best analog and it was this Winter that we had heavy snow in C & N FL not saying we will get snow here this year but this is interesting none the less.

Here's a video of the January 19, 1977 snow event in Tampa.

Link

Good Morning
Hi Scott, this does look like we may finally get the Nino you've been predicting for the last year. It will probably be a weak to moderate one lasting into the late spring. I don't trust the models after the end of winter on their Nino forecast. I just hope this helps jump start the 2015 hurricane season, as the last few have been below normal in ace and sever storms, and a few land falling majors would also be nice. :{ :[ :[.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Here's a video of the January 19, 1977 snow event in Tampa.

Link



Will be quite fun if this winter ends up like that, but we can only wish. :)
Quoting 245. WxLogic:



Will be quite fun if this winter ends up like that, but we can only wish. :)


The analog packages that I have compiled show 1976/1977 as our best analog and it appears JB agrees as well. I have been saying this for weeks will we get snow I don 't know and the chances are slim but a wetter and cooler winter as a result of El-Nino and pretty significant Greenland blocking this Winter should allow for many Arctic Outbreaks across the Eastern US this Winter.
Good Morning All..

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 43s43 seconds ago

IT is early (mid November), but we need to watch overrunning potential around 11/14-15 for mid-Atlantic. SW flow aloft over arctic front.
As I feared, our front has undergone a complete and utter collapse as dry air killed it off. This is the front that models just yesterday said would produce and inch of rain today after a 12 hour rain event. Now I will get exactly zero, although I'm happy to see that the stalled front has given Texas some good rains. Regardless of what the models showed, the actual progression of the front got slower and the amount of rain falling with the front decreased all day Tuesday and into yesterday while the models stuck to their guns. This is a good illustration of why the pros don't live and die by models.

Go to my ENSO Blog and read the November update by CPC that has a 58% chance of Weak El Nino by the Northern Hemisphere Winter.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Go to my ENSO Blog and read the November update by CPC that has a 58% chance of Weak El Nino by the Northern Hemisphere Winter.
Wasn't it 65% last month?
Quoting 245. WxLogic:



Will be quite fun if this winter ends up like that, but we can only wish. :)
I remember that well...The entire winter was bad.
Quoting 246. StormTrackerScott:



The analog packages that I have compiled show 1976/1977 as our best analog and it appears JB agrees as well. I have been saying this for weeks will we get snow I don 't know and the chances are slim but a wetter and cooler winter as a result of El-Nino and pretty significant Greenland blocking this Winter should allow for many Arctic Outbreaks across the Eastern US this Winter.
Yep..I said last year the south would get a bad ice storm...hydrus lightly pats himself on back..:)
Quoting 250. sar2401:

Wasn't it 65% last month?


It was at 65% in the September/October updates.
Bummer. IMO, It's improper use that is probably more to blame than the chemicals themselves. Ironically, when they're improperly used your lawn benefits very little.

One other big problem is that there is too little (if any) quality topsoil being used before they lay the sod. With enough good topsoil the need for chemical fertilizer is great reduced. Also the need for watering is greatly reduced. Runoff from storms is further minimized because that layer of topsoil can absorb more.

Once you get a strong lawn it is tough for weeds to fill in. Ones that do fill in can be spot killed which is better than a broadcast weed killer. However a good lawn does lead to those pesties (good eating), so responsible use of pesticides is important.

I tried to go 100% organic with pesticides. Best results were in the garden. On the lawn, I had some success, but I must admit I still use chemicals (although as little as possible). I also properly time them for maximum effectiveness.

Quoting 239. islander101010:

the trend of having nice lawns is harming to our environment. pesticides and fertilizer runoff have put a toll on our mosquito lagoon so much so during summer it is now against the law to fertilize. it will take years if we are lucky for it to come back..... hope everyone has a nice day.
Quoting 236. Huracan94:


That good ol polar vortex looks like it's here to stay. BrRrrRrrr!!!


can't wait for some nice -20 degree weather
Quoting 248. sar2401:

As I feared, our front has undergone a complete and utter collapse as dry air killed it off. This is the front that models just yesterday said would produce and inch of rain today after a 12 hour rain event. Now I will get exactly zero, although I'm happy to see that the stalled front has given Texas some good rains. Regardless of what the models showed, the actual progression of the front got slower and the amount of rain falling with the front decreased all day Tuesday and into yesterday while the models stuck to their guns. This is a good illustration of why the pros don't live and die by models.



Very disappointed here as well. However, I'm ever so grateful for that rain I got either last Wed or the Wed before. Something like 3/4 inches. And before that it had easily been 2 weeks since rain. This time of year I hate the most. Huge dry spells with chilly mornings and hardly any storms. It gets better going into the heart of winter with more robust frontal squall lines.
NOAA lowers chance of El Niño
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has dropped the likelihood of El Niño developing to 58%, from 65%, noting that ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not happened.
The forecast, issued today, says forecasters still expect El Niño to emerge this winter, but with less confidence. If El Niño develops, it is favored to be weak. The El Niño Watch issued on March 6 is still in place. Next update: December 4.
Quoting 252. hydrus:

I remember that well...The entire winter was bad.
how about an extreme winter have not seen one of those yet
260. MAstu
anyone have the latest on the superstorm?
John Bolaris-Philly.com


We measure storm intensities through atmospheric pressure. One of the lowest measured pressures was Hurricane Hugo (which I actually flew into with hurricane hunters in 1989) with a measurement of 918 millibars. The projected pressure with the Bering Sea monster could go as low as 920 millibars.

Alaska's Aleutian Islands will get pounded with hurricane force winds of 75 miles per hour. Wave heights off the western Aleutian islands will average 45 feet.

This massive storm could actually play a role in our weather as it should help the polar jet to take a dip — the powerful river of air in the upper atmosphere that snakes around the polar region. When it dips, this allows polar air to invade south of the Canadian border and right into our neck of the woods. At the same time, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is becoming negative, which helps to enhance a colder air entrance way into the Northeastern United States.

It will be very interesting to see how the atmosphere sets up over the next couple of weeks. Right now, indications are for a colder and more stormy mid-November.

Quoting 258. SFLWeatherman:

NOAA lowers chance of El Niño
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has dropped the likelihood of El Niño developing to 58%, from 65%, noting that ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not happened.
The forecast, issued today, says forecasters still expect El Niño to emerge this winter, but with less confidence. If El Niño develops, it is favored to be weak. The El Niño Watch issued on March 6 is still in place. Next update: December 4.

Yeah, the odds continue to decrease:

Synopsis: There is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

During October 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) increased slightly across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño indices were between +0.6°C (Niño-3.4 and Niño-1+2) and +0.9°C (Niño-3) at the end of the month (Fig. 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180º-100ºW) were largely unchanged (Fig. 3) even as a new downwelling Kelvin wave increased temperatures at depth in the central Pacific (Fig. 4). The monthly equatorial low-level winds were near average, although anomalous westerlies continued to emerge on occasion. Upper-level winds were also mostly average across the Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index continued to be negative, accompanied by mostly average rainfall near the Date Line and suppressed rainfall over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Overall, several features across the tropical Pacific are characteristic of borderline El Niño conditions, but collectively, the combined atmosphere and oceanic state remains ENSO-neutral.

Similar to last month, most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). However, the ongoing lack of clear atmosphere-ocean coupling and the latest NCEP CFSv2 model forecast (Fig. 7) have reduced confidence that El Niño will fully materialize (at least five overlapping consecutive 3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index at or greater than 0.5°C). If El Niño does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event. In summary, there is a 58% chance of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).



Ugh. Could be a rough one for us nc. The whole winter that is.

Quoting 247. ncstorm:

Good Morning All..

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 43s43 seconds ago

IT is early (mid November), but we need to watch overrunning potential around 11/14-15 for mid-Atlantic. SW flow aloft over arctic front.
Quoting 260. MAstu:

anyone have the latest on the superstorm?

It's still on:

Wow, 47'. Rogue waves will be as big as they come.

Quoting 264. Neapolitan:


It's still on:


Quoting 235. tampabaymatt:



I wonder why they show Pinellas county as such a high fire risk. It got dumped on all throughout September. Seems a little premature.


Yeah, this is definitely premature, they also had plenty of rain relatively so for October. My parents live in Pinellas and said they still have full green grass and high water levels in the the ponds. Whereas here in Tallahassee grass is starting to turn brown now and water levels have dropped.

With that said, I think that has to be an error for Pinellas. They actually had one of the highest rainfall totals for the past couple months. Basically the entire county had 13-16 inches of rain for September, and even 2-4 for October, which isn't bad for October. I suspect an error.
Quoting 269. Jedkins01:



Yeah, this is definitely premature, they also had plenty of rain relatively so for October. My parents live in Pinellas and said they still have full green grass and high water levels in the the ponds. Whereas here in Tallahassee grass is starting to turn brown now and water levels have dropped.

With that said, I think that has to be an error for Pinellas. They actually had one of the highest rainfall totals for the past couple months. Basically the entire county had 13-16 inches of rain for September, and even 2-4 for October, which isn't bad for October. I suspect an error.


I noticed that too. I live in Northern Pinellas and I just don't understand us as being a high risk.
the battle of the el nino mets.......aussies are more bullish on el nino forming than noaa

Warm tropical Pacific Ocean, but ENSO remains neutral
Issued on Wednesday 5 November 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Overall, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed over the past two months, and the Southern Oscillation Index has remained negative, but indicators generally remain in the neutral range. The existence of warmer-than-average water in the tropical Pacific sub-surface supports a continuation of the current near-El Niño conditions.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are likely to persist. Three of eight models reach El Niño thresholds in January 2015, and two remain just shy of thresholds. Australian rainfall and temperature patterns show some El Niño-like impacts, with the country generally warmer and drier than usual over recent months. Warmer central tropical Pacific waters late in the year typically result in warmer and drier weather for parts of eastern Australia, an increase in bushfire risk in the south, and average to below-average numbers of tropical cyclones in the Australian region.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April.
Quoting 269. Jedkins01:



Yeah, this is definitely premature, they also had plenty of rain relatively so for October. My parents live in Pinellas and said they still have full green grass and high water levels in the the ponds. Whereas here in Tallahassee grass is starting to turn brown now and water levels have dropped.

With that said, I think that has to be an error for Pinellas. They actually had one of the highest rainfall totals for the past couple months. Basically the entire county had 13-16 inches of rain for September, and even 2-4 for October, which isn't bad for October. I suspect an error.


That map doesn't show drought, but rather the current fire danger index. And that index is "...a continuous reference scale for estimating the potential for a fire to start and require suppression action on any given day." It's based on current weather conditions and relative humidity, not moisture dryness or recent rainfall. There are some good explanations here. No mistake, no error. Just the way the index sees it.
Deepening to 927 mb.



Wunderful Heavy Freezing Spray. Wish we could get that weather here along the East Coast.

Quoting 259. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

how about an extreme winter have not seen one of those yet
Greetings Keep..We are getting ready the best we can. Re-insulating the kennels for the hounds , and cutting branches that are dead or dying from the storms we had past few years. It is the ice storms that wreak havoc here not the snow. Wind is also a problem, especially when everything is iced. We live on a mountainside, so just getting around is very difficult during the winter. We have purchased an brand new A/C Heat unit that is supposed to give twice the heat with half the electric and gas than the old one. I hope it is not to bad this winter season. I did some research, and it could be a rough one.
That map doesn't show drought, but rather the current fire danger index. And that index is "...a continuous reference scale for estimating the potential for a fire to start and require suppression action on any given day." It's based on current weather conditions and relative humidity, not moisture dryness or recent rainfall. There are some good explanations here. No mistake, no error. Just the way the index sees it.


i think the fire index was being thought of as the drought index....here it is

El Nino..I guess it will be March now before we supposedly see one..
Quoting 277. ncstorm:

El Nino..I guess it will be March now before we see one..
april maybe may or june july and august

lol


WOW!!
280. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
april maybe may or june july and august

lol

LOL
Quoting 242. StormTrackerScott:

Here's a video of the January 19, 1977 snow event in Tampa.

Link




It took the AO crashing to mind-boggling & all-time record levels in mid January 1977 to get accumulating snow all the way down into central Florida. Even areas as far south as Miami & Homestead saw snowflakes...
Daily AO Index Link
1977 1 9 -3.793
1977 1 10 -4.696
1977 1 11 -5.333
1977 1 12 -5.802
1977 1 13 -6.520
1977 1 14 -7.311
1977 1 15 -7.433
1977 1 16 -7.331

1977 1 17 -6.168
1977 1 18 -4.205
1977 1 19 -3.291
1977 1 20 -3.783
1977 1 21 -3.763
282. JRRP

Transitioning Nuri will leave the floater soon.
Quoting 279. hurricanes2018:



WOW!!
that's the 850 mb layer temps at surface is half of that here is surface 1000 m run

285. MahFL
Still near Japan.

Quoting 269. Jedkins01:



Yeah, this is definitely premature, they also had plenty of rain relatively so for October. My parents live in Pinellas and said they still have full green grass and high water levels in the the ponds. Whereas here in Tallahassee grass is starting to turn brown now and water levels have dropped.

With that said, I think that has to be an error for Pinellas. They actually had one of the highest rainfall totals for the past couple months. Basically the entire county had 13-16 inches of rain for September, and even 2-4 for October, which isn't bad for October. I suspect an error.


I agree with you. It doesn't make any sense why Pinellas County would be at such a higher fire risk than its neighboring counties, one month after the wet season. It must be an error.
A few Rainfall reports from around the state for October.

Orlando .69"
Fort Myers, 1.32"
Naples 1.43"
Tampa 1.52"
Gainesville 1.55"
Tallahassee 4.87"
Miami 3.24"
West Palm - 5.31

Rainfall Map past 30 days. Some areas have received very little rainfall (light green and blue is less than 1", blue is less than a 1/2").





Quoting opal92nwf:

Very disappointed here as well. However, I'm ever so grateful for that rain I got either last Wed or the Wed before. Something like 3/4 inches. And before that it had easily been 2 weeks since rain. This time of year I hate the most. Huge dry spells with chilly mornings and hardly any storms. It gets better going into the heart of winter with more robust frontal squall lines.
I got 0.12" from that "storm" so I'm really dying on the vine here. I've seen fronts that just didn't produce the rain that was forecast before but this is the largest front in terms of lineal miles that looks like someone came in with a giant vacuum and just sucked everything up, clouds and all. I haven't been too bullish on this front but I sure didn't think it would literally disappear. BMX still has me with a 40% chance of showers before 3:00. Uh, boys, time to look at that radar again...
Quoting 275. hydrus:

Greetings Keep..We are getting ready the best we can. Re-insulating the kennels for the hounds , and cutting branches that are dead or dying from the storms we had past few years. It is the ice storms that wreak havoc here not the snow. Wind is also a problem, especially when everything is iced. We live on a mountainside, so just getting around is very difficult during the winter. We have purchased an brand new A/C Heat unit that is supposed to give twice the heat with half the electric and gas than the old one. I hope it is not to bad this winter season. I did some research, and it could be a rough one.

we are doing same here
last of the leaf pickup today
salt boxes are out will be filled up next week
almost finish with the snow blower tune up had to replace all the nuts and bolts on that
change the oil and stuff
got the building all set up just got to turn on heat tracing for underground sprinkler's next week after the annual nov fire inspection and test on 13th then we be good to go
timing everything to be complete by 15th of nov
got a feeling last half of nov all dec is going to be a cold snowy time as winter sets in
I never once thought an El Nino would happen and went against the majority here..

weak, moderate, modoki, super El Nino were thrown out there and nothing has come to past..and now NOAA is doing exactly like 2012 and slowly dropping those numbers..

all that "el nino type conditions" are false as well as we can't even get one to materialize..


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue

So all of those Super El Nino forecasts ended up being hyperbolic busts h/t/ @brandonbeckky3 @BrianBledsoe http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weathe r-gang/wp/2014/03/20/subtle-signs-emerging-of-a-su per-el-nino/ …
Nearby Weather Stations light rain and much cooler only 49F AT 11AM on 11/6/2014
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
49.1 °F
Rock Hill rain
49.0 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park rain
49.3 °F
Foxon rain
48.7 °F
East Haven Town Beach
49.6 °F
Branford Shoreline
49.9 °F
Yale, Kline Geology Lab
49.0 °F
Do any of you guys know the NWS lake effect storm names?
its rainning at my house right now!
Looks like we got some cold weather on the way for the US.
295. jpsb
Quoting 211. StormTrackerScott:



Looks like I might be leaving Newark with some snow around next Friday.


Lots of snow and ice in the N.H. right now


heavy rain at my house right now in new haven,conn!!

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 58 Comments: 88888
Quoting 289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we are doing same here
last of the leaf pickup today
salt boxes are out will be filled up next week
almost finish with the snow blower tune up had to replace all the nuts and bolts on that
change the oil and stuff
got the building all set up just got to turn on heat tracing for underground sprinkler's next week after the annual nov fire inspection and test on 13th then we be good to go
timing everything to be complete by 15th of nov
got a feeling last half of nov all dec is going to be a cold snowy time as winter sets in
So far, I have found this info for what happened Nashville, TN during the winter of 76,77 . The first reported snow fall in 1976 was on November 11, the last was on March 16. Snow in November and March is quite rare here. To give an idea of how long cold temps were in place for some, Buffalo, NY went below 32 on December 25 and stayed below freezing until Feb 9. Lake Erie reached freezing earlier than ever before on Dec 14, and froze over by month's end. In early Jan of 77 there was a positive PNA and a negative NAO. A normal PNA flow will average cold, but a PNA pattern that is far north with high pressure over Greenland will bring " extreme winter " . There was also the moderate Nino, which added moisture to the systems loaded with bitter Arctic air.
Quoting 292. vongfong2014:

Do any of you guys know the NWS lake effect storm names?

I live in the middle of lake effect country and never heard of the NWS naming the lake effect events. Is this supposed to be something new?
299. Siker
Quoting ncstorm:
I never once thought an El Nino would happen and went against the majority here..

weak, moderate, modoki, super El Nino were thrown out there and nothing has come to past..and now NOAA is doing exactly like 2012 and slowly dropping those numbers..

all that "el nino type conditions" are false as well as we can't even get one to materialize..


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue

So all of those Super El Nino forecasts ended up being hyperbolic busts h/t/ @brandonbeckky3 @BrianBledsoe http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weathe r-gang/wp/2014/03/20/subtle-signs-emerging-of-a-su per-el-nino/ …


I find it odd that they see decided to drop the numbers, the SST's have been at Niño threshold for the past few weeks and the atmosphere, as the SOI shows, is finally responding in an El Niño manner.
Quoting 295. jpsb:



Lots of snow and ice in the N.H. right now


Yes, there is. That often happens as winter approaches, or so I'm told.

its rainning at my house right now!



it's raining here at the office too....we must be neighbors
Quoting 290. ncstorm:

I never once thought an El Nino would happen and went against the majority here..

weak, moderate, modoki, super El Nino were thrown out there and nothing has come to past..and now NOAA is doing exactly like 2012 and slowly dropping those numbers..

all that "el nino type conditions" are false as well as we can't even get one to materialize..


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue

So all of those Super El Nino forecasts ended up being hyperbolic busts h/t/ @brandonbeckky3 @BrianBledsoe http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weathe r-gang/wp/2014/03/20/subtle-signs-emerging-of-a-su per-el-nino/ …

Regardless of an official El Nino, the pattern does indeed represent El Nino-like conditions.

"Such yin and yang of the quiet Atlantic and active Pacific is typical of the El Niño-like pattern we're in, Maue said. While the six-month season doesn't officially end until Nov. 30, it's likely most of the activity has already occurred."
Quoting vongfong2014:
Do any of you guys know the NWS lake effect storm names?
The NWS doesn't name any kind of winter storm. You know that. Why are you asking?
I heard that the typhoon's remnants are part of the cause for next week's cold wave. I was unable to get any more information. Could somebody explain this further?
Quoting 247. ncstorm:

Good Morning All..

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 43s43 seconds ago

IT is early (mid November), but we need to watch overrunning potential around 11/14-15 for mid-Atlantic. SW flow aloft over arctic front.


It's too bad it's November, because this upcoming pattern is about as classic as it gets for southeastern US overrunning events (as Allan has noted of course). Residual toughing hanging back over southern Ontario & Quebec and into the Great Lakes allows cold air to build in its wake & surface pressures to rise. If this occurs in the face of a piece of energy within the subtropical jet slipping underneath the PNA Ridge, w/ a parent trough in the Gulf of Alaska & a sprawling high in northern North America, you have the right "recipe" for an overrunning in the southeastern US...

Here are some examples and the 500mb patterns in the days that preceded them.
Dec 1958





Feb 9-11 1973





Dec 22-24 1989






Dec 4-5 2002





Feb 26-27 2004





Jan 29-30 2010...







Jan 9-11 2011







Not every event is the same, but they definitely share similar characteristics, and the upcoming pattern for the most part looks awfully similar, but again if this was winter, I would be jumping for joy...
500mb


Although the odds of getting wintry wx out of this are remarkably low for now, it's not impossible at this time of the year in central NC...


Quoting 300. Neapolitan:


Yes, there is. That often happens as winter approaches, or so I'm told.


It's not often you go two months in a row w/ top 3 all-time northern hemisphere snowpack, North America @ record breaking levels in September & Eurasia 2nd highest last month...
Link
Lol, don't forget properly inflating your snowblower tires. Ever have an underinflated snowblower tire come off the rim? They don't have tubes. Not an easy fix to get them to seal again in wind and cold? Some of that green tire slime came in handy. I actually tied a rope around the tire and then twisted the rope with a handle (piece of wood) to force the walls of the tire against the rim and then inflated with an air compressor. It finally sealed and inflated. Much easier to accomplish inside.

Luckily my cursing and swearing could not be heard above the noise of the storm.

Quoting 289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we are doing same here
last of the leaf pickup today
salt boxes are out will be filled up next week
almost finish with the snow blower tune up had to replace all the nuts and bolts on that
change the oil and stuff
got the building all set up just got to turn on heat tracing for underground sprinkler's next week after the annual nov fire inspection and test on 13th then we be good to go
timing everything to be complete by 15th of nov
got a feeling last half of nov all dec is going to be a cold snowy time as winter sets in
309. jpsb
Quoting 300. Neapolitan:


Yes, there is. That often happens as winter approaches, or so I'm told.


The extent of N.H (and S.H.) ice and snow seems out of the ordinary. From Firsthand Weather "Remember how cold the 2013-14 winter was?? Well, October 2013 had the 4th highest snow cover extent over Eurasia (Siberia) since 46 years of records began. As of October 13, 2014, 12.2 million square kilometers of Eurasia were covered by snow compared to 10.8 million square kilometers around this same time last year. We’re already way ahead of what even occurred last year!"
Quoting 302. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Regardless of an official El Nino, the pattern does indeed represent El Nino-like conditions.

"Such yin and yang of the quiet Atlantic and active Pacific is typical of the El Niño-like pattern we're in, Maue said. While the six-month season doesn't officially end until Nov. 30, it's likely most of the activity has already occurred."
Here is a good read for you, Cody and others.

THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF HURRICANE ACTIVITY
IN THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC REGIONS


The PDO (also known as the North Pacific Oscillation
[NPO] in some studies) is a 50 to 70 year oscillation recently
described (e.g., Minobe 1997; Mantua et al. 1997) within
the eastern Pacific Ocean Basin. As defined by Gershanov
and Barnett (1998), the positive (warm) phase of the PDO
(Fig. 2) is characterized by an anomalously deep Aleutian
Low. Cold western and central north Pacific waters, warm
eastern Pacific coastal waters, and warm tropical Pacific
waters also characterize this phase of the PDO. Following
LJ00, this phase is referred to as PDO1. The reverse
conditions characterize the negative (cool) phase of PDO
(Fig. 2) and these conditions are referred to as PDO2 (e.g.,
LJ00). Each PDO period, or era, is defined using calendar
years (see Table 2) and this information can also be found
in Gershanov and Barnett (1998) and Lupo et al. (2007).
Landsea (1993), Gray et al. (1997), and Landsea et
al. (1999) have demonstrated that hurricane activity is
tied to changes in the long-term pressure patterns in the
Atlantic Ocean Basin (e.g., the North Atlantic Oscillation,
or NAO). Deser et al. (2004) also demonstrated that sea
level pressure and other background variables (e.g.,
wind shear) have displayed interdecadal variations,
which Vimont and Kossin (2007) correlated to Atlantic
tropical cyclone activity. LJ00 found
that the influence of the PDO was
related variability, specifically,
that there was little or no ENSO
manifested by changes in the ENSO-
related variability during PDO2 and
significantly fewer and less (more
and more) intense hurricanes during
El Niño (La Niña) years during PDO1.


Tell me what you think. Fair to blame the reduction of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone activity the past 2 seasons on the switch between cool (-) PDO to warm (+) PDO?
Storm Warning

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 321 AM AKST THU NOV 6 2014 COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA BRISTOL BAY THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT. WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ177-070130- ADAK TO KISKA- 321 AM AKST THU NOV 6 2014 ...STORM WARNING FRIDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. .FRI...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 44 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 44 FT. .SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. .MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. $$

See the wave heights for Friday night and Saturday? Luckily this is a remote area.
Quoting 289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we are doing same here
last of the leaf pickup today
salt boxes are out will be filled up next week
almost finish with the snow blower tune up had to replace all the nuts and bolts on that
change the oil and stuff
got the building all set up just got to turn on heat tracing for underground sprinkler's next week after the annual nov fire inspection and test on 13th then we be good to go
timing everything to be complete by 15th of nov
got a feeling last half of nov all dec is going to be a cold snowy time as winter sets in


The leaves here haven't really fallen yet. However, with it being gusty outside, that may change.
So you can have El Nino type conditions but no El Nino declared?

thats like saying its raining, lightening and thundering outside but its not really a thunderstorm..the conditions are there but dont call it a thunderstorm..
Quoting 296. hurricanes2018:



heavy rain at my house right now in new haven,conn!!

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 58 Comments: 88888
let it rain all day long
315. vis0
WKC area watch 201411-05_-06
http://youtu.be/8sjqwhUCq28



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST THU NOV 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible over the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IS COVERED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF
HAITI NEAR 16N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-74W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N70W TO 20N72W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 18N65W TO 12N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-70W. TO THE S...THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 76W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
Snow, sleet, mix not worried so much. Concern for me is for an icing event in the interior.

I also have a bike race on 11/15 near Charleston. Not worried about frozen precip, but boy is it looking uncomfortable.

Quoting 306. Webberweather53:



It's too bad it's November, because this upcoming pattern is about as classic as it gets for southeastern US overrunning events (as Allan has noted of course). Residual toughing hanging back over southern Ontario & Quebec and into the Great Lakes allows cold air to build in its wake & surface pressures to rise. If this occurs in the face of a piece of energy within the subtropical jet slipping underneath the PNA Ridge, w/ a parent trough in the Gulf of Alaska & a sprawling high in northern North America, you have the right "recipe" for an overrunning in the southeastern US...

Here are some examples and the 500mb patterns in the days that preceded them.
Dec 1958





Feb 9-11 1973





Dec 22-24 1989






Dec 4-5 2002





Feb 26-27 2004





Jan 29-30 2010...







Jan 9-11 2011







Not every event is the same, but they definitely share similar characteristics, and the upcoming pattern for the most part looks awfully similar, but again if this was winter, I would be jumping for joy...
500mb


Although the odds of getting wintry wx out of this are remarkably low for now, it's not impossible at this time of the year in central NC...





GFS currently has ex-nuri bottoming out at 924 mb.
Hey, did anyone hear about this? :)


Hopefully the Low tracks over S. Florida as shown on the 12Z GFS. That will increase the chance of rain across my area in S.W. Fl.
If the low happens to track further north across central Fl., my area won't see much rain.
And the GFS keeps flip flopping on where the low crosses the state.



Quoting 313. ncstorm:

So you can have El Nino type conditions but no El Nino declared?

thats like saying its raining, lightening and thundering outside but its not really a thunderstorm..the conditions are there but dont call it a thunderstorm..
The atmospheric conditions are, the sst profiles are not. That is 2 completely different things. It's like having fog at the surface and clear above that. You can have El-Nino like conditions and not have an actual El-Nino episode.

The storm tracks of the 2014 AHS give a clear illustration where activity below 20 N was limited due to the position of the TUTT and notice the Caribbean and GOM hardly had any activity.




Quoting 313. ncstorm:

So you can have El Nino type conditions but no El Nino declared?

thats like saying its raining, lightening and thundering outside but its not really a thunderstorm..the conditions are there but dont call it a thunderstorm..


There's more than one factor that goes into el nino, neutral or la nina. Equatorial sst's and shear are just 2 of those.
Quoting 321. Grothar:

Hey, did anyone hear about this? :)





You're a day late and a dollar short, gro. We've been talking about this for several days now lol.
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, did anyone hear about this? :)




There should be a nice blow out on Alaska's Aleutian Islands.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


You're a day late and a dollar short, gro. We've been talking about this for several days now lol.


I think his smiley face gave it away. He was just playing.
Theme song for Superstorm Nuri
Link
Quoting 327. Sfloridacat5:



I think his smiley face gave it away. He was just playing.


Dang my gullibility! XD
some snow in the northeast tonight!
Quoting 326. Sfloridacat5:



There should be a nice blow out on Alaska's Aleutian Islands.



This is going to be something to see. What really worries me is the fishing boats up that way. They are used to violent storms there, but this has the possibility of being something they have never experienced. I had a great link of the area that I believe even the Doc asked me for it once, but I can't find it.
Quoting 288. sar2401:

I got 0.12" from that "storm" so I'm really dying on the vine here. I've seen fronts that just didn't produce the rain that was forecast before but this is the largest front in terms of lineal miles that looks like someone came in with a giant vacuum and just sucked everything up, clouds and all. I haven't been too bullish on this front but I sure didn't think it would literally disappear. BMX still has me with a 40% chance of showers before 3:00. Uh, boys, time to look at that radar again...

Just got a light shower here. (nothing measurable) Atmosphere seems okay enough to support some meager convection.


It's on its way. That pressure gradient may be an important factor later on.

Quoting 321. Grothar:

Hey, did anyone hear about this? :)



Anyone see the movie 'The Big Year' with Jack Black, Owen Wilson and Steve Martin? They visit the island of Attu which is famous for birding..
A lot of people think of Florida as a humid and rainy state.
They don't understand that Florida has a dry season (Oct - May) with relatively little rainfall and low humidity. This "dry season" makes Florida very vulnerable to fires.


Florida Forest Fire Facts

• Florida has about 5,000 wildfires each year, with the most active time of the
state’s 12-month wildfire season occurring March through June

• On average, Florida experiences the second highest number of wildfires in the
nation
. During dry years, Florida experiences severe wildfires—wildfires that
destroy homes, disrupt people's lives and impact our economy

More Florida fire facts if interested

Link
Good Afternoon. Those potential statistics for Alaska with this "super storm" once it merges with the front are pretty remarkable. Almost a repeat of the Sandy merger with the Nor"easter except on the Pacific side of the equation.

Have no idea how Alaska State authorities are going to deal with this one and particularly in terms of potential evacuation or rescue efforts for the Native Americans which live in the endangered areas and particularly with the fishing villages in the Aleutians.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area several
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda has weakened to a trough, and
that the associated shower activity has become less organized.
Significant development of this system is unlikely before it is
absorbed into a developing non-tropical low over the western
Atlantic on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Beven
Quoting 302. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Regardless of an official El Nino, the pattern does indeed represent El Nino-like conditions.

"Such yin and yang of the quiet Atlantic and active Pacific is typical of the El Nio-like pattern we're in, Maue said. While the six-month season doesn't officially end until Nov. 30, it's likely most of the activity has already occurred."


I disagree with NOAA's report today as even the Aussie's are bullish on El-Nino being declared possibly next month. SOI values are extremely low now and tanking essentially everyday then you have Nino 3.4 which has been staying above 0.5C for many weeks now.


SOI values for 06 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -10.6
Average for last 90 days -8.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -27.2


Nov .6, 2014 12:27 pm ET
South | update!!!
- Rain continues to drench south Texas Thursday afternoon.
- Showers along a front from the Carolinas to the central gulf coast will be light and few and far between Thursday afternoon.
- Some areas of southern Texas may see an additional 1-3" of rain, especially south of San Antonio.
- High temperatures today will be close to average for the region in the 60s and 70s.
- Mainly dry conditions will continue Friday into the weekend as pleasantly cool late fall air dominates.
Northeast | Nov .6, 2014 12:27 pm ET snow in the northeast!!
- Ahead of a cold front widespread rain and showers will push through the Northeast region Thursday afternoon.
- A solid half inch to one inch of rain is likely for many through tonight.
- As colder air catches up and low pressure deepens, rain showers will change to snow showers from the mountains of PA up into northern New England.
- As the storm intensifies tonight and Friday, accumulating snow is likely from the mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire up into northern Maine.
- Northern Maine gets hammered with 6-12" of snow likely tonight and Friday.
- The storm pulls away into the weekend with quiet and chilly weather for most.
Quoting 313. ncstorm:

So you can have El Nino type conditions but no El Nino declared?

thats like saying its raining, lightening and thundering outside but its not really a thunderstorm..the conditions are there but dont call it a thunderstorm..


We are in El-Nino whether it's declared or not. Just look at how many weeks Nino 3.4 has stayed above 0.5C and notice the SOI it is strongly in El-Nino territory now so the atmosphere has responded. NOAA's report today made no sense when the Aussie's were coming out saying El-Nino could be declared at anytime.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I'm having some computer issues at the moment and can't post any images.

But the 12Z GFS is now showing freezing temps all the way down to the Gulf Coast and Northern Florida next Saturday/Sunday (Nov 15/16).
Quoting 342. StormTrackerScott:



We are in El-Nino whether it's declared or not. Just look at how many weeks Nino 3.4 has stayed above 0.5C and notice the SOI it is strongly in El-Nino territory now so the atmosphere has responded. NOAA's report today made no sense when the Aussie's were coming out saying El-Nino could be declared at anytime.


Will be interesting to see who is correct..
Northern Maine up to bat again.

Quoting 317. Grothar:





Quoting 297. hydrus:

So far, I have found this info for what happened Nashville, TN during the winter of 76,77 . The first reported snow fall in 1976 was on November 11, the last was on March 16. Snow in November and March is quite rare here. To give an idea of how long cold temps were in place for some, Buffalo, NY went below 32 on December 25 and stayed below freezing until Feb 9. Lake Erie reached freezing earlier than ever before on Dec 14, and froze over by month's end. In early Jan of 77 there was a positive PNA and a negative NAO. A normal PNA flow will average cold, but a PNA pattern that is far north with high pressure over Greenland will bring " extreme winter " . There was also the moderate Nino, which added moisture to the systems loaded with bitter Arctic air.


Fall and winter 1976-77 were the classic western ridge eastern trough lock in all season. I've never seen another like it. The cold was just incredible, especially in January. Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, 76 and Jan, Feb 77 were all below normal but a rapid recovery began in February and spring 1977 was very warm in most of the U.S. east of the Rockies. But that fall and first half of winter are in a class by themselves. No other year approaches that extreme.

Chesapeake Bay froze over in January 1977 from shore to shore. Islands that get supplies by boat were locked in ice for six to eight weeks. Cheaspeake watermen were idled because their boats were locked in thick unbreakable ice for two months. The Ohio River froze thickly in late December and stayed frozen through early February (I don't have xact dates) This caused a lot of problems with commerce because no shipping could get through.