WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

IPCC Final Report: We've Blown Two-Thirds of Our Carbon Budget

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:08 PM GMT on November 02, 2014

"Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems", said the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today, in the final installment of their once-every-seven-year report on the climate. Today's Synthesis Report summarizes the key messages from Parts I, II, and III, issued in September 2013 - April 2014. The Synthesis Report warns that "continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks." During the press conference accompanying the report release, United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said "action on climate change can contribute to economic prosperity, better health and more livable cities,” but warned that inaction would “cost much, much more.” I'll comment on just three key themes from today's report:

We're Blowing Our Carbon Budget
The IPCC said today: "Limiting total human-induced warming to less than 2°C relative to the period 1861-1880 with a probability of >66% would require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources since 1870 to remain below about 2900 GtCO2. About 1900 GtCO2 had already been emitted by 2011."

Keeping warming below the agreed-upon definition for the threshold of dangerous climate change, 2°C above pre-industrial levels, will be very difficult, since we've already blown two-thirds of our budget, and there is little time to act. Despite growing efforts to slow them down, CO2 emissions increased by 2.2% per year between 2000 - 2010, hitting the equivalent of 38 Gigatons (Gt) of CO2 per year in 2010. If we continue to follow this "business as usual" course, we will reach the 2,900 Gt limit just 17 years from now, in 2031, according to an analysis done by the Carbon Tracker Initiative. The International Energy Agency warned in 2012 that "almost four-fifths of the CO2 emissions allowable by 2035 are already locked-in by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc. If action to reduce CO2 emissions is not taken before 2017, all the allowable CO2 emissions would be locked-in by energy infrastructure existing at that time."

The combined value of all fossil fuel reserves is $27 trillion, as estimated by The Capital Institute. According to three groups who have done carbon budget analyses, the IPCC, the International Energy Agency, and the Carbon Tracker Initiative, between 66% - 86% of those proven fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground if we are to have at least a two-in-three chance of keeping warming below 2°C. The fossil fuel companies, whose stock value is based on burning all of those $27 trillion worth of reserves, are fighting very hard to keep to preserve their stock value, and plan to burn all of those unburnable fossil fuel reserves.


Figure 1. Of the proven fossil fuel reserves still in the ground (equivalent to emitting 2795 Gt of CO2, dark grey oval with a black oval of the maximum we can burn embedded in it), between 66% - 86% must stay in the ground if we are to have at least a two-in-three chance of keeping warming below 2°C, according to three groups who have done carbon budget analyses, the IPCC, the International Energy Agency, and the Carbon Tracker Initiative. Reserves are those quantities able to be recovered under existing economic and operating conditions (split as 63% coal, 22% oil, and 15% gas, according to the International Energy Agency.) These reserves were valued at $27 trillion (nearly 40% of the global yearly GDP), according to The Capital Institute. The IPCC, quoting Rogner et al., 2012, Global Energy Assessment–Toward a Sustainable Future (Chapter 7: Energy Resources and Potentials), says that these reserves are a factor of 4 - 7 more than what can burned. Fossil fuel resources are those where economic extraction is potentially feasible, and could become reserves in the future (e.g., methane hydrate deposits under the ocean floor.) The IPCC estimated these resources were an additional factor of 31 - 50 higher than the maximum we can burn. If only a small fraction of the these resources are developed and burned, Earth would have a hot-house climate like occurred during the age of the dinosaurs.

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change is Affordable if We Act Now
The cost of keeping global warming under the "dangerous" level of 2° C will only reduce "consumption growth" of the global economy by 0.06% per year if we start immediately and act strongly. Since consumption growth is expected to increase between 1.6% and 3% per year in the coming decades, we’re talking about annual growth that is, for example, 2% rather than 2.06%. This is a small price to pay to greatly decrease the risks of increased hunger, thirst, disease, refugees, and war that will result otherwise.

We're On Course For 4°C (7°F) of Warming By 2100
Our current business-as-usual emissions path (RCP 8.5) is more likely than not to cause 4°C (7°F) warming by 2100. That amount of warming is expected to result in "substantial species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, consequential constraints on common human activities, and limited potential for adaptation in some cases (high confidence). "

In a world that is 4°C warmer, the regional summertime temperatures in the continental United States will be of order 6°C (11°) hotter, wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood pointed out in a 2012 post, The World Four Degrees Warmer: A New Analysis from the World Bank. Think about the crazy hot summer of 2012; now add ten degrees. It's going to be tough to grow crops in that kind of heat, and provide water to all 450 million Americans. The past 12 months--October 2013 through September 2014--was Earth's warmest consecutive 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on October 20. We are on pace for 2014 to be the warmest calendar year on record, and many more warmest years on record are on the way.

Commentary
Even an increase in Earth's temperature below the agreed-upon definition for the threshold of dangerous climate change, 2°C above pre-industrial levels, carries huge risks. As of 2014, the 0.85°C (1.5°F) of global warming that has occurred since 1880 has likely contributed to deadly and destructive heat waves, droughts, and heavy precipitation events that have killed tens of thousands of people and caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Further warming to the "dangerous" 2°C threshold will be capable of provoking unprecedented droughts and storms that could challenge civilized society, leading to the conflict and massive suffering that go with failed states and mass migrations. There is no “critical threshold” that will be crossed when warming exceeds 2°C, sending us into a dangerous climate regime with greatly increased risks. Given the wildly erratic behavior of our jet stream in recent years, I believe we have already crossed one critical threshold into a more dangerous climate. The 2°C limit is more like a speed limit--a convenient mark to set, above which the dangers are much greater. A more reasonable speed limit for the climate is 350 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a level we passed back in 1987. The climate activist group 350.org based their name on this lower speed limit. Since CO2 levels passed 400 ppm this year, I argue that we are already traveling 15% higher than the "safe" speed limit of 350 ppm. If we do manage the very unlikely feat of keeping warming to 2°C, atmospheric CO2 levels will stabilize near 500 ppm--like traveling 100 mph on an expressway where the speed limit is 70 mph, an extremely risky proposition. If an ambitious global legal climate agreement is signed at the critical December 2015 Conference of Parties (COP) negotiations in Paris, and followed up with strong action over the next twenty years, we have a fighting chance of keeping warming to 3°C (about 700 ppm of CO2.) Otherwise, we are more likely headed for a future with warming of 4°C (1000 ppm of CO2)--like careening down the highway at speeds of 200 mph or greater. If we are to preserve any hope of a livable climate for our children, the fossil fuel industry cannot be allowed to burn anywhere close to the $27 trillion worth of fossil fuel reserves on their books, or be allowed to develop significant new resources. Given the massive wealth and political power of a fossil fuel industry intent upon preserving this $27 trillion stock value, it's no wonder that the dire messages on climate change given by the Nobel prize-winning IPCC, a volunteer organization with almost no PR budget, are drowned out by a stupendous amount of industry-funded misinformation, echoed by politicians they help elect and sympathetic media outlets.

Links
The World Four Degrees Warmer: A New Analysis from the World Bank, a November 2012 post by wunderground climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood.

9 Significant Scientific Findings too Recent to Be Included in the New IPCC Report, today's post from the World Resources Institute.

New Blockbuster IPCC Climate Report: Comprehensive, Authoritative, Conservative, my September 2013 post on who the IPCC is, and how they write their reports.

Landmark 2013 IPCC Report: 95% Chance Most of Global Warming is Human-Caused, my September 2013 post on Part I of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report: the physical science behind climate change.

IPCC: Climate Change Increasing Risk of Hunger, Thirst, Disease, Refugees, and War, my March 2014 post on Part II of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report: climate change impacts and how we can adapt to them.

IPCC: Cost of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Super-Affordable if We Act Now, my April 2014 post on Part III of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report: how we can mitigate (reduce) climate change impacts.

The Burning Question: We Can't Burn Half the World's Oil, Coal, and Gas. So How Do We Quit? by Duncan Clark, an excellent analysis of the issue of unburnable fossil fuels.


Video 1. The IPCC released this video to accompany the release of their 2014 Impacts and Adaptation report.

I'll have a new post Monday afternoon or Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 261. landocanes:

this cold snap down south would have made a good blog topic
Prolly tomorrow. I'd also imagine Mr. Burt would be interested in discussing the records broken this weekend. This is the first time in a while that cold / low records are likely to exceed warm / high records in this area...
No mention of the earliest snowfall in history over parts of the S.E.?

"This has been a historic event," News19 Meteorologist Daniel Bonds said. "It's unprecedented. I've run out of adjectives to describe it."



Link
watching the weather. the manatees are frolicking today
Thank you for the insight Dr. Masters. Very very interesting.
"These reserves were valued at $27 trillion (nearly 40% of the global yearly GDP), according to The Capital Institute."


Wow and the U.S. debt is at 20 trillion.....Interesting times......
Quoting 2. Sfloridacat5:

No mention of the earliest snowfall in history over parts of the S.E.?

"This has been a historic event," News19 Meteorologist Daniel Bonds said. "It's unprecedented. I've run out of adjectives to describe it."



Link


Certainly a remarkable event, but it's a Sunday, and I'm only devoting my time to covering one story.

Dr. M.
Quoting 2. Sfloridacat5:

No mention of the earliest snowfall in history over parts of the S.E.?

"This has been a historic event,"

" Earliest since records have been kept."
Winds gusting into the 40-50mph range here in PA. Haven't had winds this strong in a while :p a few power poles have been taken out but to my knowledge, there are no widespread power outages. It shows the true expanse of this system.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Certainly a remarkable event, but it's a Sunday, and I'm only devoting my time to covering one story.

Dr. M.


Thanks for the reply.
Make sure you turned your clock back an hour.

Good information in the blog.
With a WMG eye embedded within CDG, Nuri is worthy of a T8.0/170kt.

I am more interested in what's happening now...not the endless discussions, research arguments etc. on global warming...tired of it all...the snow event was historic...talk about it today not tomorrow. The GW topic can wait for TOMORROW not the snow event..it will melt by tomorrow!



Quoting 2. Sfloridacat5:

No mention of the earliest snowfall in history over parts of the S.E.?

"This has been a historic event," News19 Meteorologist Daniel Bonds said. "It's unprecedented. I've run out of adjectives to describe it."



Link
Instead of focusing on individual weather events one has to look at the potential mechanisms that can cause
global warming or cooling. It's not just man made CO 2 causing issues here on our pretty blue planet. Such as
cosmic influences. The amount of solar energy reaching Earth—the total solar irradiance (TSI) should also be considered.
Quoting 2. Sfloridacat5:

No mention of the earliest snowfall in history over parts of the S.E.?

"This has been a historic event," News19 Meteorologist Daniel Bonds said. "It's unprecedented. I've run out of adjectives to describe it."



Link


"run out of adjectives to describe it" definitely sounds a little over the top to me. All I see is a little snow barely covering the ground. I realize that snowfall so early is remarkable at such a low latitude, but I remember many All Hallows, when we had around 0.5m of snow here in Austria, so it just feels ridiculous to me to make a big deal out of that little snow. On the other hand, storms like ex-Gonzalo with gusts around 120km/h are rare and big events in Austria, whereas they're a regular thing for states like Florida. ;-)
Quoting 8. Hhunter:

can you say horse manure. Wow, we face the coldest winter in decades and we have to read this poppy cock. Makes me laugh. Will be funny to watch the next spin put on this "clIMATE CHANGE" fiction. lol


Sometimes it looks like we will have a severe,harsh winter. Then it warms up when it should be cold!LOL
As Dr. Masters has said in the past:

Quoting 2. Sfloridacat5:

No mention of the earliest snowfall in history over parts of the S.E.?

"This has been a historic event," News19 Meteorologist Daniel Bonds said. "It's unprecedented. I've run out of adjectives to describe it."



Link
I'd wait til tomorrow, if I were the doc.... so as to include the New England and Canadian potential totals.
Quoting 15. overwash12:



Sometimes it looks like we will have a severe,harsh winter. Then it warms up when it should be cold!LOL
I was just thinking earlier this morning that whenever we see such a cold early November we end up with a December / January period that is hot as Hades... lol ....
Quoting 8. Hhunter:

can you say horse manure. Wow, we face the coldest winter in decades and we have to read this poppy cock. Makes me laugh. Will be funny to watch the next spin put on this "clIMATE CHANGE" fiction. lol


The US isn't the entire world though. I mean just a couple days ago, temperatures reached as high as 23.6C in the UK on Halloween, beating the previous record of 20C. The average high for Halloween is normally 12-13C.

I also don't get the arguments against becoming more sustainable as well. I mean if it turned out that climate change was totally wrong, what is the bad outcome of all the efforts to curb it? Reducing dependancy on fossil fuels, cleaning up the air we breath, cleaning up the environment we live in. Those all sound like good things right?

And even if you don't agree with climate change, you cannot dispute that emitting as we do has "no effect" whatsoever. Acid rain is a big problem and an even bigger issue is the acidification of the ocean. Curbing emissions could potentially save a lot of harm done to the ocean and the sensitive ecosystems within it (in which millions of people depend on).
Quoting 14. fabian171017:



"run out of adjectives to describe it" definitely sounds a little over the top to me. All I see is a little snow barely covering the ground. I realize that snowfall so early is remarkable at such a low latitude, but I remember many All Hallows, when we had around 0.5m of snow here in Austria, so it just feels ridiculous to me to make a big deal out of that little snow. On the other hand, storms like ex-Gonzalo with gusts around 120km/h are rare and big events in Austria, whereas they're a regular thing for states like Florida. ;-)
So what you are saying is it's all a matter of perspective.... :o)
Sounds like my regular "EXOTIC" spiel, in which I argue that what is exotic to an individual depends on what that person grew up think of as normal.... so, crystal clear water, white sand / pink sand beaches, palm trees, etc are entirely normal to me.... what I find exotic are snow, trains, and mountains.... LOL
Quoting 18. BahaHurican:

I was just thinking earlier this morning that whenever we see such a cold early November we end up with a December / January period that is hot as Hades... lol ....


Yeap,it seems like it happens more than not! Not saying this is one of those cases,but we shall see!
Quoting 14. fabian171017:



"run out of adjectives to describe it" definitely sounds a little over the top to me. All I see is a little snow barely covering the ground. I realize that snowfall so early is remarkable at such a low latitude, but I remember many All Hallows, when we had around 0.5m of snow here in Austria, so it just feels ridiculous to me to make a big deal out of that little snow. On the other hand, storms like ex-Gonzalo with gusts around 120km/h are rare and big events in Austria, whereas they're a regular thing for states like Florida. ;-)


Give me a break, even the pattern that produced this event is historic, 5-6 standard deviation upper level low w/ heights well below 540 decameters in the southeastern US in late October & Early November is historic no matter how you slice it...


The only analog that comes anywhere within the ballpark of this event is Early November 1966 which dropped some of the earliest snow on record in northern Alabama. I will be interested to see what the receiving end of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (or the dominant 50-60 day harmonic) this year will have to offer, in 1966 it resulted in a nice snowstorm up the eastern seaboard in time for Christmas...
Quoting 19. Envoirment:



The US isn't the entire world though. I mean just a couple days ago, temperatures reached as high as 23.6C in the UK on Halloween, beating the previous record of 20C. The average high for Halloween is normally 12-13C.

I also don't get the arguments against becoming more sustainable as well. I mean if it turned out that climate change was totally wrong, what is the bad outcome of all the efforts to curb it? Reducing dependancy on fossil fuels, cleaning up the air we breath, cleaning up the environment we live in. Those all sound like good things right?

And even if you don't agree with climate change, you cannot dispute that emitting as we do has "no effect" whatsoever. Acid rain is a big problem and an even bigger issue is the acidification of the ocean. Curbing emissions could potentially save a lot of harm done to the ocean and the sensitive ecosystems within it (in which millions of people depend on).
This has been my argument for years. However, I sometimes feel that anti-CC arguers are like the pple in my city who feel it's okay to throw plastic and other garbage out on the road / beaches so their personal cars can remain clean. Meanwhile they are making our tourist destination country look like a nasty pigpen of a country which is, naturally, repulsive to visitors. Why save the world when your own part of it seems to be okay?
Thanks Doc.
Quoting 22. overwash12:



Yeap,it seems like it happens more than not! Not saying this is one of those cases,but we shall see!
I'm enjoying the temps today, I gotta admit.... but I can't remember many years when a cool November led to a cold December and January. Usually by mid-December things warm up and we end up above average until the end of January... it would be great if this was a below average winter across the board here.... though I guess that would mean somebody else in the hemisphere would be stuck with the constant above average temps....
WOW!
I don't need to be "first" so I'm going to go light the wood fired furnace and come back later to post this.
"And Dammit all, Man, can't you see?"
"Hats Off to Roy Harper"
Quoting 23. Webberweather53:


Give me a break, even the pattern that produced this event is historic, 5-6 standard deviation upper level low w/ heights well below 540 decameters in the southeastern US in late October & Early November is historic no matter how you slice it...


The only analog that comes anywhere within the ballpark of this event is Early November 1966 which dropped some of the earliest snow on record in northern Alabama. I will be interested to see what the receiving end of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (or the dominant 50-60 day harmonic) this year will have to offer, in 1966 it resulted in a nice snowstorm up the eastern seaboard in time for Christmas...



Models are keying in on an another major blast of cold air late next week. This making Dr. Steve Gregory's post from last weekend showing warm weather dominating the US for this week and beyond look pretty bad.

Here come s another blast just like the one we are having now.


Two Guardian articles on theIPCC report:

IPCC report: six graphs that show how we're changing the world's climate



The IPCC is stern on climate change – but it still underestimates the situation

At this point, the scientists who run the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change must feel like it’s time to trade their satellites, their carefully calibrated thermometers and spectrometers, their finely tuned computer models – all of them for a thesaurus. Surely, somewhere, there must be words that will prompt the world’s leaders to act.
Quoting 23. Webberweather53:



Give me a break, even the pattern that produced this event is historic, 5-6 standard deviation upper level low w/ heights well below 540 decameters in the southeastern US in late October & Early November is historic no matter how you slice it...


The only analog that comes anywhere within the ballpark of this event is Early November 1966 which dropped some of the earliest snow on record in northern Alabama. I will be interested to see what the receiving end of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (or the dominant 50-60 day harmonic) this year will have to offer, in 1966 it resulted in a nice snowstorm up the eastern seaboard in time for Christmas...

In the midst of all this, I'd say my big comment is, I hope this wx pattern results in some much needed precipitation for the west coast at last. If nothing else, it may help bring grape prices down.... paid almost $7.00 for about 1 1/2 pounds of SEEDED grapes in the store yesterday.... :o/

Unfortunately here we don't grow this stuff... I have a feeling grapes would do well in Grand Bahama and Abaco, with temps that never quite get to freezing but which usually cool off enough to make the grapes have some life to them.... unfortunately the pple with the $$ in this country are committed to importation as a way of life, and will do little to support that kind of farming [if any farming at all]. I know citrus and ground crops like cucumbers and peppers have done well in the NW Bahamas, but 2004-05 [and Floyd in 1999] did a lot to damage these crops in those islands... right now some of our fresh produce is grown in Andros, but the vast majority of the fruit and a lot of vegetables are imported, mainly from the US....
Quoting 31. ncstorm:

LOL..

NBC..never disappoints..

Mike Siedell takes leak on air during yesterday's broadcast on the snow in the NC mountains...don't eat the yellow snow..LOL!!!..
This I gotta see.... NOT .... lol .... did u get any record lows by the coast last night, nc? Most of the EC FL areas were way cold....
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'd wait til tomorrow, if I were the doc.... so as to include the New England and Canadian potential totals.


Yeah
But I think 2-4" of snow in central South Carolina is pretty big news (earliest in recorded history).

To me, snow is to be expected in the Northeast in November.
It's like rain in June in Florida.
Quoting 32. BahaHurican:

This I gotta see.... NOT .... lol .... did u get any record lows by the coast last night, nc? Most of the EC FL areas were way cold....


LOL..no record lows for our area..cold though..
Quoting BahaHurican:
This I gotta see.... NOT .... lol .... did u get any record lows by the coast last night, nc? Most of the EC FL areas were way cold....


Fort Myers (S.W. Florida)
We broke the old record by 1 degree.

48 degrees - old record was 49
Given the wildly erratic behavior of our jet stream in recent years, I believe we have already crossed one critical threshold into a more dangerous climate.

Dr. Jeff Masters



Scientists: Cancel Maine Shrimp Season Again Because Of Rising Ocean Temperatures

After an alarming report of a collapsed fishery cancelled the shrimp season in the Gulf of Maine last year due to higher water temperatures, it seemed unthinkable to locals that it would happen again.

“There are definitely still people that were holding out hope that we might be able to get in a bit of a season this year,” said Ben Martens, who runs the Maine Coast Fishermen’s Association.

But that’s exactly what a team of scientific experts told the federal regulators who will make the call next week in a draft report, according to the AP. The scientists on the Northern Shrimp Technical Committee told the regulatory body known as the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission that “the depleted condition of the resource” — meaning the shrimp population — can be blamed on “long term trends in environmental conditions.” And the culprit, according to the AP’s take on the draft report, is “rising ocean temperatures.”

Link
Quoting 35. ncstorm:



LOL..no record lows for our area..cold though..
Same here.... November can be cool, but I haven't needed a jacket or anything outside today... it's really great to be able to go outside without breaking a sweat, though. The lack of humidity is superb....
Both the GFS & Euro models are keying in on what could be a harsh Winter for the Eastern US. Last year it was the Midwest and this year the cold appears to be aimed at the east. Just look at how this pattern is beginning to evolve as we get deeper into November.

One trough after another just keeps digging across the east every few days.

Quoting 35. ncstorm:


LOL..no record lows for our area..cold though..


It was 39 here in Longwood ncstorm.
Quoting 36. Sfloridacat5:



Fort Myers (S.W. Florida)
We broke the old record by 1 degree.

48 degrees - old record was 49
Yeah... saw that on the old blog. I think the persistence of the cold down to Miami's latitude is pretty cool. We got down to 66, which is no record, but still pretty cold for this time of year.
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:

Both the GFS & Euro models are keying in on what could be a harsh Winter for the Eastern US. Last year it was the Midwest and this year the cold appears to be aimed at the east. Just look at how this pattern is beginning to evolve as we get deeper into November.

One trough after another just keeps digging across the east every few days.


Just for once I'd like to see that blue area over California and Nevada.... :o/
Quoting 13. wxhatt:

Instead of focusing on individual weather events one has to look at the potential mechanisms that can cause
global warming or cooling. It's not just man made CO 2 causing issues here on our pretty blue planet. Such as
cosmic influences. The amount of solar energy reaching Earth—the total solar irradiance (TSI) should also be considered.


It has been considered. It's not what is causing these effects.
Big game today..

New England vs Denver Broncos..

CBS Sports
Just now

It's going to be a snowy showdown for the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots matchup.

Mike @NEFirebuff
Follow


%u201C@WBZPhotog: Snow coated turf Plain and simple nasty #weather in #Foxboro #Patriots #Broncos #wbz pic.twitter.com/3eq6zmiBYx%u201D@WX1BOX
11:09 AM - 2 Nov 2014

Well, I've enjoyed this morning, but now I gotta go do stuff... lol ... I'll check in later if time permits.

Enjoy the first Sunday of "real" time.... :o)
Given the wildly erratic behavior of our jet stream in recent years, I believe we have already crossed one critical threshold into a more dangerous climate.

Dr. Jeff Masters

200-year flood hits west Norway towns

Rescue crews and volunteers worked through the night to evacuate hundreds of people and limit damage as Voss, Odda and several other towns suffered the worst floods to hit western Norway in more than a century.

In some places, rapidly rising masses of water washed away foundations and the ground under buildings, causing homes to collapse or fall into the swollen rivers. Areas hit included the town of Lærdal, which was partly destroyed by fire less than a year ago.

The disaster followed several days of torrential rain. The weather was expected to let up somewhat on Wednesday,


Link

Thank you, Dr. Masters. Your summary of the quantifiable factors we face is both concise and thorough. What also troubles me greatly is the effect on our political and social stability as the effects of AGW increase. For many people, their belief system is their most valued possession, and they are willing to go to horrific lengths to counter challenges to their beliefs. I fear that a high percentage of those still in the "denialist" camp are there because AGW conflicts with their belief system, and I fear that their irrationality will express itself in deeds as well as words
Scientists revive 700 year old virus to see if it still “works”

Scientists have resurrected a 700 year old virus form Canadian permafrost and showed that even after several centuries of lumbering, viruses can remain… well. virulent. This could have significant implications, because as global warming continues melt more and more permafrost, unknown viruses could be released into the environment – and there’s currently no way of telling what the effects will be on modern plants, animals, and (ultimately) humans.

The virus in case was eloquently named ancient caribou feces associated virus (aCFV); at least the name is very descriptive. The virus remained frozen in the Canadian permafrost, so its DNA was still in very good shape and was easily separated from that of the caribou. They proceeded to isolate the virus and see if it still has the ability to infect hosts – the selected host was a tobacco plant. Eric Delwart, a researcher at the Blood Systems Research Institute in San Francisco explains:

“We demonstrate that genetic material from ancient viruses associated with caribou fecal matter was cryogenically preserved for at least seven centuries and that the cloned DNA genome of one of these viruses replicated and spread systemically in an extant plant,” Delwart wrote in a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.


Link
Quoting 24. BahaHurican:

This has been my argument for years. However, I sometimes feel that anti-CC arguers are like the pple in my city who feel it's okay to throw plastic and other garbage out on the road / beaches so their personal cars can remain clean. Meanwhile they are making our tourist destination country look like a nasty pigpen of a country which is, naturally, repulsive to visitors. Why save the world when your own part of it seems to be okay?
Know just what you mean - sometimes think here that national glass recycling policy is green bottles (Heineken) go out of left window and brown bottles (Amstel) go out of right window!!
Whilst, to me, arguments on both side of the divide do not necessarily win me over, especially the "anti lobby" which often seems jaundiced by politics and vested interest, I do believe 100% that, for the most part, we are appalling stewards of what we have - air land and sea. In some parts, this is down to the NIMBY factor (not in my back yard), or, due to naivety and a failure to grasp things on an holistic global perspective as opposed to an insular, and somewhat myopic, regional outlook and, in other parts perhaps just total blind arrogance.
Regardless of the pros and cons and the set intransigent stances of the lobbies for or against Global Warming/Climate Change, we need to stop treating our globe like an infinite garbage dump and blithely expecting Mother Nature to take care of it all!! I think Mother Nature is saying "Enough"!
Quoting Webberweather53:


Give me a break, even the pattern that produced this event is historic, 5-6 standard deviation upper level low w/ heights well below 540 decameters in the southeastern US in late October & Early November is historic no matter how you slice it...


The only analog that comes anywhere within the ballpark of this event is Early November 1966 which dropped some of the earliest snow on record in northern Alabama. I will be interested to see what the receiving end of the Lezak Recurring Cycle (or the dominant 50-60 day harmonic) this year will have to offer, in 1966 it resulted in a nice snowstorm up the eastern seaboard in time for Christmas...
Have you looked at the winter of 1886-1887? I think it was, by far, the worst winter nationwide that country has ever experienced. Montgomery AL had 11 inches of snow from one storm on December 5 and 12.7 inches of snow for the season, over twice the amount of any other season on record. The winter was so bad in the Plains that it ended open range cattle raising forever and almost destroyed the entire US cattle herd. Unfortunately, many places don't have reliable weather records that go back that far and weather maps are almost non-existent. A lot of the work trying to decipher how bad that winter was had to come from private journals and newspaper accounts. Still, I don't think there's any single winter since then that had the wide-ranging and disastrous effects of that winter.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Both the GFS & Euro models are keying in on what could be a harsh Winter for the Eastern US. Last year it was the Midwest and this year the cold appears to be aimed at the east. Just look at how this pattern is beginning to evolve as we get deeper into November.

One trough after another just keeps digging across the east every few days.

This is exactly what late fall and winter used to be like. One day of snow and cold then two days of clearing before the next storm hit. It happened almost like clockwork in the 50's, when I was a kid. If the models are right, it just means the return to typical winters of the past.
Looks like it could be a snowy November ....I sure hope not I'm driving 1 hour 20 min to school every day our college doesn't have dorms on campus it's a commuters college

Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:

Both the GFS & Euro models are keying in on what could be a harsh Winter for the Eastern US. Last year it was the Midwest and this year the cold appears to be aimed at the east. Just look at how this pattern is beginning to evolve as we get deeper into November.

One trough after another just keeps digging across the east every few days.


Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:




Models are keying in on an another major blast of cold air late next week. This making Dr. Steve Gregory's post from last weekend showing warm weather dominating the US for this week and beyond look pretty bad.

Here come s another blast just like the one we are having now.





Rehashing what has been mentioned by others on this blog, this makes perfect sense given the somewhat low-latitude recurvature of Super Typhoon Nuri in the western Pacific.

Archambault from the University of Albany discussed in her 200+ page PhD dissertation titled "The Downstream Extratropical Flow Response To Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones"...
Link
the factors that need to be taken into consideration when dealing with recurving western Pacific typhoons as all recurving storms don't necessarily result in the same downstream pattern signature, nor do all storms result in colder and stormier weather in the eastern US. Background modifications by the structure and intensity, and climatology of the pre-existing waveguide (mid-latitude jet) via intraseasonal forcing from equatorial waves for example such as the Madden Julian Oscillation, Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves, etc, and forcing from the lower frequency ENSO index.

Typical patterns and downstream extratropical responses to recurving Western Pacific typhoons in the Pacific & North American sector, note the classic wave train response w/ a stronger than normal Aleutian low favored in the exit region of the forced jet streak by the western Pacific typhoon, leading to a thumb-projection or omega block in western North America (+PNA) (Thumb-Projection Block= A meridonally elongated ridge lacking closed height contours with the strongest +height anomalies poleward of 45N and usually inhibits significant digging of troughs immediately to the right of its mean axis, Omega Block=High pressure block resembling the greek letter omega, enveloped on both sides by digging troughs, w/ undercutting by the upstream trough (west of the block) possible (thus later inducing a Rex Block), and w/ closed height contours on the northern flank of the ridge axis, which have the potential to become unusually strong, especially in regions with a robust snowpack)...




You can see our upcoming pattern is not all that dissimilar, w/ a strong Aleutian Low, thumb-projection block & downstream digging trough over the east-central US.



(Images courtesy of Larry Cosgrove)
Omega Block:


Thumb-Projection Block:




Essentially, tropical cyclones recurving at a low-latitude serve as a viable proxy for the intensity & positioning of the Pacific Jet, where in a more extensive & equatorward-displaced jet is indicative of enhanced Mid-Latitude Rossby Wave Breaking (& subsequent stratospheric upwelling and modulation of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation) and typically a higher amplitude (more meridional (i.e. North-South)) jet, which thereby intrusively forces recurvature of typhoons much earlier in their lifetimes (generally further south in the subtropics)
Killjoy ....
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AS INLAND AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...

FLZ016>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161 -022130-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.A.0005.141103T0900Z-141103T1300Z/
GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-B EN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN -SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...
SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWA TER...
CRAWFORDVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...
FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN. ..EDISON...
LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE.. .SYLVESTER...
ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASV ILLE...BLAKELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE.. .ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO... THOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
315 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...LOW TEMPERATURES 29 TO 32 DEGREES.

* DURATION...FREEZING TEMPERATURES UP TO 3 HOURS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
FROST COULD DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

38-GODSEY

Welp, its not everyday you see these this early in the season down here, After mid 30's this morning, another big chill tonight before moderation tomorrow.
tail end of that cold front near the costa rica/Nicaragua border, could spell trouble if persists in that area for sometime
Since Cyclone Oz typifies the attitude of the US population, I see no hope for limiting emissions at all, much less to the levels required (0) to reduce the impact of climate change. And what difference does it make anyway -- none of us posting on here will still be alive in 2100, and our children and grandchildren obviously don't matter. Let's give up and burn it all! (And don't worry about the methane release from the oceans and permafrost regions -- that just helps us get there quicker!) (sarcasm flag off)
Nuri and Vance looks good.
Quoting 30. BahaHurican:

In the midst of all this, I'd say my big comment is, I hope this wx pattern results in some much needed precipitation for the west coast at last. If nothing else, it may help bring grape prices down.... paid almost $7.00 for about 1 1/2 pounds of SEEDED grapes in the store yesterday.... :o/

Unfortunately here we don't grow this stuff... I have a feeling grapes would do well in Grand Bahama and Abaco, with temps that never quite get to freezing but which usually cool off enough to make the grapes have some life to them.... unfortunately the pple with the $$ in this country are committed to importation as a way of life, and will do little to support that kind of farming [if any farming at all]. I know citrus and ground crops like cucumbers and peppers have done well in the NW Bahamas, but 2004-05 [and Floyd in 1999] did a lot to damage these crops in those islands... right now some of our fresh produce is grown in Andros, but the vast majority of the fruit and a lot of vegetables are imported, mainly from the US....


Wine grapes need more chilling than any point in the Bahamas gets. The others are growable in Bahamian conditions.
The Long Island resort I stay at to fish serves really top quality food but I could beat the quality of the imported vegetables (only slightly) with
stuff from my DC garden that's just starting to produce in mid May. I've wondered what they could grow on the island but the biggest issue is water. There isn't a good source of fresh irrigation water. Groundwater is too brackish and Long Island is pretty dry in the winter and spring.
Quoting 47. ACSeattle:

Thank you, Dr. Masters. Your summary of the quantifiable factors we face is both concise and thorough. What also troubles me greatly is the effect on our political and social stability as the effects of AGW increase. For many people, their belief system is their most valued possession, and they are willing to go to horrific lengths to counter challenges to their beliefs. I fear that a high percentage of those still in the "denialist" camp are there because AGW conflicts with their belief system, and I fear that their irrationality will express itself in deeds as well as words


It seems to me that that avoidance to act on it, because it's against one's belief system is just an excuse to avoid responsibility. I have a professor that is a conservative but is very serious about global warming.

The issue of global warming is a great analog for what seems that many don't really look into evidence of important issues. Its why deceptive ads of both politics and product sales that seem shallow, stupid, or devoid of facts actually convince people. Its not that people are unintelligent, people just don't want to bother. It's easier to follow the crowd belief or ideology that one is most familiar with, and just generalize and criticize anything that feels foreign or different, to the point of it being perceived as evil.
I don't think many of Americans will be on board with acting on climate change for now until their is major change of prospective and attitude nationwide. American has become more divided than ever over the last 10 years I'd say.

Another issue is that even many Americans who do believe climate change is a problem do so because they are very liberal/democrats, not because they have actually done research on if its true. This is also a problem, because both parties in America have become corrupt from becoming so polarized. With that said, it will be easy for the democrats to produce something in the name of climate change reform, or environmental conservation, that really isn't good for the environment or America. But it could happen because people will believe it from that ideology without even looking into the facts.


Now, obviously there are people in both political ideologies, and other groups of thought, that do research the facts. I am a Republican, and overall lean conservative, and I know others who are as well including my family that also consider climate change a major issue. I am by no means saying that the cause is hopeless, or that all people don't look at the facts. I'm just saying that the fact is, its going to be difficult to rally a large enough amount of people that know how to react to global warming for the said reasons I've mentioned. Who knows, maybe we'll have nationwide awakening of unity and responsibility, I have hope in people changing for the better. Its just not an easy or simple feat.
Quoting CycloneOz:
I am looking forward to seeing government regulations and restrictions succeed in stopping the climate from changing.

That will be an awesome day when it is announced. I hope they don't forget the "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" sign in the background!

Good times!



Glacial ice invades New York City.

Now that would be something to see.
Each color represents a different Ice Age that affected North America.
Here's Europe
Quoting Jedkins01:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AS INLAND AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...Welp, its not everyday you see these this early in the season down here, After mid 30's this morning, another big chill tonight before moderation tomorrow.


See, this is what I don't get about the NWS, how they decide to divvy up forecasting areas, and make forecasting decisions. Stay with me now, because it gets complicated.

The light blue in Georgia are freeze watches that were issued by Tallahassee. The dark blue are freeze warnings issued by Atlanta. The brown is a fire weather watch issued by Tallahassee. I'm in the county three up from the Florida state line and right on the Georgia state line.

Tallahassee is responsible for the counties directly below me in Alabama. My county, Barbour, is the furthest east and south in Birmingham's forecast area. For some reason, Tallahassee didn't issue a freeze watch for the Alabama counties, even though they are located directly west of the Georgia counties. They also didn't issue a fire weather watch for the counties that are in their area even though they did for the counties in Florida directly below the Alabama counties. Birmingham issued no watches at all, even though the HWO says to expect temperatures below freezing tonight. We have no fire weather watches or warnings, even though my current humidity is 27% with 10 mph NW winds and will certainly get below 25% today and tomorrow.

I have to program in the SAME codes for the counties covered by Atlanta, Tallahassee, and Birmingham to make sure I get warnings that may actually affect me, since the other offices will issue a warning for the county right across the state line (which, in the case of Georgia, is one mile from me) while Birmingham issues no warnings. This happens all the time with severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings.

This whole system is screwed up.

Looks to be a stormy set up for the eastern Caribbean, models continue to develop a strong ULL, over Hispaniola, which will cause a lot of divergence over the islands, here's a piece from the NWS, HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK from San Juan, PR:


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
BREAKING WAVE ACTION ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PR AND
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE
APPROPRIATE TIME.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Still looking for something to form down there. I think the SW Caribbean is our only hope for another tropical cyclone before we close out the season. I'm not convinced anything does form but it's certainly the place to watch.


Recent (black) and maximum (grey) glaciation of the northern hemisphere during the Quaternary climatic cycles Ice coverage: J. Ehlers & P.L. Gibbard: The extent and chronology of Cenozoic global glaciation. Quaternary International, 164-165, 6-20, 2007 doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2006.10.008 Topography: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center (NOAA/NGDC), 2-minute Gridded Global Relief Data (ETOPO2) 2006 Map software: Schlitzer, R., Ocean Data View, http://odv.awi.de, 2007
76. vis0
As to not anyone upset my reply here.
Quoting 59. CycloneOz:

It's too bad nobody much cares about the local effects of AGW solar mirrors that torch birds in mid-flight, or the wind turbines that cut them in half as they fly along.

Birds are my favorite animals, aside from humans. I would like to see less hypocrisy when it comes to apparent faux-concern of all creatures great and small.


Funny, becausr I don't see you calling for the destruction of sky scrapers, the closing of coal plants, nuclear plants, or the death of feral cats which all kill more birds (including per kilowatt hour for energy source) then solar and wind. Talk about hypocrisy and lack of concern.
Aha!

Quoting Naga5000:


Funny, becausr I don't see you calling for the destruction of sky scrapers, the closing of coal plants, nuclear plants, or the death of feral cats which all kill more birds (including per kilowatt hour for energy source) then solar and wind. Talk about hypocrisy and lack of concern.


My original comment was directed at the AGW warmists.

If you are about "saving the planet," then you should be all-in and save every bit of it.
After struggling with the effects of dry air and moderate wind shear, Vance has finally intensified into a hurricane today. The system is well organized, with numerous spiral bands, expanding outflow in all four quadrants, and occasional hints of an eye on infrared imagery (it's evident on visible already). The 12z SHIPS advertised a 72% chance of 25kt RI over the next 24 hours, so it wouldn't surprise me to see this make a run at major hurricane intensity. If it does, 2014 will tie 1992 for the highest number of major hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific (EPAC/CPAC combined) on record (10). We've already beat 1992 for the highest number of majors in the East Pacific alone (8).

Vance's upgrade to hurricane intensity ties 2014 with 1992 for the highest number of hurricanes in the Northeast Pacific on record (16).

Oh my... a fire has started close to me and in these winds it is bound to spread quickly. The fire depts. are going to have a tough time fighting these fires.
Quoting 82. Doppler22:

Oh my... a fire has started close to me and in these winds it is bound to spread quickly. The fire depts. are going to have a tough time fighting these fires.
Do NOT hang around to watch it spread!
Quoting 51. CycloneOz:

Question: What is the IPCC plan to reign in China, Russia and India unregulated carbon emissions?

Answer: Have the US government and EU regulate carbon emissions in the USA and EU even more. LOL!

Oh...and btw...if you want to see some really nasty litter behavior...look no further than the recent Occupiers, and 3rd world ocean trash dumpers.


Rein in? like pull in?
And I hope people understand that my point is not that GW deniers are worse litterbugs than GW supporters.... my point is that most of the suggestions for curbing GW impacts are also common sense ways to keep our planet clean, green and pristine.... why destroy when we can preserve and conserve?

On the emissions: the US and EU have been adding to our carbon footprint for 100+ years. The Chinese and Indians TOGETHER don't add up to that yet. I think the US and EU SHOULD be the ones cutting back. Even in China and India the product client is still usually the US / EU market, and the stakeholders are also from that area. With privilege SHOULD come responsibility....
Quoting 55. CycloneOz:



I am looking forward to paying through the nose for my electricity and gas when I return to America in January. I can't wait to be even more poor!

I love to have my personal use of energy to be heavily regulated. I cannot be trusted to turn off a light, or run my oven for only the exact amount of time it takes to cook my food.

I want to drive a POS plastic car in a group of 18 wheelers! There is nothing I enjoy more than having my life on the line and possibly becoming road kill.
Why worry when you can just die from obesity-related illnesses like diabetes and hypertension... courtesy of the poor foods you will be forced to eat .... or consider it another way.... you could have no electricity or car in the first place.... still places very close to the US where people live that way....
Quoting 65. georgevandenberghe:



Wine grapes need more chilling than any point in the Bahamas gets. The others are growable in Bahamian conditions.
The Long Island resort I stay at to fish serves really top quality food but I could beat the quality of the imported vegetables (only slightly) with
stuff from my DC garden that's just starting to produce in mid May. I've wondered what they could grow on the island but the biggest issue is water. There isn't a good source of fresh irrigation water. Groundwater is too brackish and Long Island is pretty dry in the winter and spring.
They used to grow cotton there .... lol .... most of the farming there in more recent times is subsistence level, but they do a pretty good job in central Long Island [south of Simms] with mid-range crops like bananas, orchard fruit like grapefruit, and pineapple. The scale is relatively small, though. My grandmother in the northern part of the island used to grow corn, pigeon peas and melons [watermelon, muskmelon, and so on] on about 10 acres scattered across the area. They didn't do very much with "winter" time crops, mainly because of the dryness. As you intimated, water supplies make farming in the SE Bahamas rather a precarious business on any large scale.

And if you normally stay at the Stella Maris Inn, I gotta tell you [from recent personal experience], the fish there is FANTASTIC .... lol ...
Graph not shown too often because it graphs the past 7 years from 2007 - 2014 vs. 1989-1998 average graph usually shown.

For the past 7 years the Arctic sea ice has been fairly constant.



Source - you can see all the other graphs including comparisons going back to 1978 for the Arctic and Antarctic (NASA/Cryosphere).

Link
@ George.... I forgot to mention a local guy was growing wine grapes here in western New Providence about 30 years ago .... before he had been there 5 years he was "accidentally" burned out .... twice .... after that he gave up. The grapes were doing well, too. It would have been interesting to see what he might have accomplished, but it seemed someone was afraid he'd start undercutting the grape importation business.... allegedly.... [shrugs]

Wow! 155kts.

WP, 20, 2014110218, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1323E, 155, 907, ST, 34, NEQ, 170, 160, 140, 150, 1004, 240, 12, 0, 15, W, 0, , 0, 0, NURI, D,
GOOD NEWS!

The NESDIS servers came back online last week, and the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector imagery for the down-time period was all there.

My long-play animation of the 2014 Hurricane Season will be uploaded to YouTube around 0300 UTC on December 1, 2014 (approximately 11 PM EST on November 30th.)

I have included some value-added graphics that will make this yearly review even more appealing.

Stay tuned. The long-play tracks of Ed and Gonzo are compelling.

Quoting 88. CycloneOz:

GOOD NEWS!

The NESDIS servers came back online last week, and the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector imagery for the down-time period was all there.

My long-play animation of the 2014 Hurricane Season will be uploaded to YouTube around 0300 UTC on December 1, 2014 (approximately 11 PM EST)

I have included some value-added graphics that will make this yearly review even more appealing.

Stay tuned. The long-play tracks of Ed and Gonzo are compelling.


That was not an accidental plus. .... lol ... glad to see you are still doing this, and hoping there will be 1 more storm to tie 2006 ....
Vance up to 75kts.

EP, 21, 2014110218, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1082W, 75, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 0, 10, 1010, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
Quoting BahaHurican:
That was not an accidental plus. .... lol ... glad to see you are still doing this, and hoping there will be 1 more storm to tie 2006 ....


Because the interface has not changed in over a decade, I still have to manually download single images.

There are over 8,000 of them in a hurricane season. Of course, add to that the work involved in creating the video...and you get an idea of why I am still the only private citizen on the planet to create this valuable and insightful tool.

Granted, it is a labor of love...but man is it hard work. When November comes around, I feel a bit relieved that I persevered. I also get excited for people to see it! :)
Quoting 91. CycloneOz:



Because the interface has not changed in over a decade, I still have to manually download single images.

There are over 8,000 of them in a hurricane season. Of course, add to that the work involved in creating the video...and you get an idea of why I am still the only private citizen on the planet to create this valuable and insightful tool.

Granted, it is a labor of love...but man is it hard work. When November comes around, I feel a bit relieved that I persevered. I also get excited for people to see it! :)
Well, u always get my appreciation for this..... :o)
Nuri is an extremely impressive tropical cyclone, and it looks like it's going to be an equally impressive extratropical cyclone.

12z ECMWF:

Nuri up to 155kts (180mph):

20W NURI 141102 1800 17.9N 132.3E WPAC 155 907

Quoting sar2401:
Still looking for something to form down there. I think the SW Caribbean is our only hope for another tropical cyclone before we close out the season. I'm not convinced anything does form but it's certainly the place to watch.


Something will form down there maybe not today or next week but very soon
@84.
Morning, Baha.

"What is the IPCC plan to reign in China, Russia and India"

Rein in? like pull in?

Damn those tricky homophobes! Spelling matters!
;-)
20W/MH/N/C5
TXPQ24 KNES 021503
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NURI)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 17.5N

D. 132.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG FOR DT=7.5.
SIX HOUR AVERAGE DT=7.5. MET=5.5 WITH PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
21E/H/V/C2
TXPZ21 KNES 021819
TCSENP

A. 21E (VANCE)

B. 02/1800Z

C. 12.4N

D. 108.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LG EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B FOR DT=4.5.
MET=3.5 WITH PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Looks like a nor'easter, doesn't it?
Quoting 102. CycloneOz:



Looks like a nor'easter, doesn't it?
early season snow another comes by end of next weekend again maybe
Thank you for your reply, Jedkins01. At some point you are going to have to decide on the relative importance of numbers versus more nebulous issues. You profess allegiance to an organization where the party line on AGW runs the gamut from "It's a fraud!, It's a hoax!, It's a conspiracy!," to "I am not a scientist". Meaningful action on AGW will require massive government involvement. There is no escaping this 
JTWC's latest forecast brings Nuri up to 170kts (195mph):



[Click To Enlarge]
After carefully reading and trying to understand Dr. Masters' blog today, two things stand out. The first -

The International Energy Agency warned in 2012 that "almost four-fifths of the CO2 emissions allowable by 2035 are already locked-in by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc. If action to reduce CO2 emissions is not taken before 2017, all the allowable CO2 emissions would be locked-in by energy infrastructure existing at that time."

Unless I just don't understand this concept, it appears that, by 2017, which is only three years away, we will have all the CO2 emissions "locked in" to the current energy infrastructure that leads us to doom. I'm assuming that includes transportation, which is about 28% of energy consumption, not just power plant, factories, and buildings. Given that it's unlikely we will be able to have more than a small impact by 2017, it appears that the only way to reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere is to reduce or eliminate some parts of the existing infrastructure. What I'd like to understand is by how much, which sectors, and how we plan to achieve this. Without some steep taxation and some pretty restrictive laws, along with a decrease in the standard of living in the developed world, I can't see how this could be done. All of us little people would like to understand the destination before the train leaves the station.

The second that caught my eye -

...the fossil fuel industry cannot be allowed to burn anywhere close to the $27 trillion worth of fossil fuel reserves on their books, or be allowed to develop significant new resources.

With the exception of fossil fuels burned to produce fossil fuels, the fossil fuel industry doesn't burn any fossil fuels. The fossil fuel industry doesn't develop new reserves for the fun of it. They develop new reserves when they see a demand for those reserves in the future. Fossil fuels are not burned by an industry, they are burned by us - people. Why demonize an industry when we are the problem? We are the ones that need to reduce our use of fossil fuels. If the demand decreases, the development of new reserves decreases naturally. Some of the ways we will have to reduce fossil fuel usage will be painful. Other ways are completely obvious and should be done now, As one example, I'm sure we've all seen the proliferation of "TV on a a stick" - digital billboards. No one knows for sure how many of them exists but the average seems to be about 5,000, with at least 200 more being added per year. Each of these billboards uses as much energy per day as 30 average homes. These billboards are a wholly unnecessary use of electric power and carbon consumption. Even though the total power usage is small compared to the whole, they can be eliminated without affecting anyone's standard of living. Since the government and taxes have to ultimately be involved in this, instead of thinking about taxing carbon producing industries first, how about a government subsidy for LED light bulbs, so consumers can actually afford them? How about tax relief for companies that make LED light bulbs, since almost 100% of them are made in China? Why has Elon Musk (Tesla) established the biggest U.S. solar company by market value, built a private space company that’s making deliveries to the International Space Station, and has conjured a $35 billion car company out of thin air while the government and all the NGO hangers-on produce...reports? Why can't we focus on things like this? We need to have some direction beyond what's going to happen by 2100 if we're going to make progress.
sat nov 8 2014

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Something will form down there maybe not today or next week but very soon
Well, "very soon" time is running out fast. I really hope we do get something down there, since that's out best chance to get a storm in the Gulf and finally give us a soaking rain. Nothing big, a minimal cat 1 will do, but the lack of rain now combined with the low temperatures and very dry air is starting affect even the native vegetation. The relative stability in the Gulf is even affecting what rain we might get from continental fronts, since the return flow from the Gulf isn't as unstable and moisture rich as normal. It's pretty amazing to see one of the strongest early season cold fronts in decades traverse the entire South and the only severe weather anyone got was some snow.
Quoting beell:
@84.
Morning, Baha.

"What is the IPCC plan to reign in China, Russia and India"

Rein in? like pull in?

Damn those tricky homophobes! Spelling matters!
;-)
Don't think I didn't notice that tricky spelling error there, Beell. :-)
Quoting 108. CycloneOz:



Massive government involvement has been the norm for quite a long time as far as the US / EU is concerned.

Like I opined earlier...I am looking forward to them winning the war on climate change and the market economy that drives CO2 emissions.

Experiencing a climate that does not change, like here in Ecuador, on a planetary scale will be worth the enormous economic costs on both nations and individuals.

Just don't forget the "Mission Accomplished" sign when they make the announcement that the climate has stopped changing.
You stated that the climate in Ecuador where you have been living doesn't change all year. The climate in the countries of North America and Europe has always changed throughout the year -- it is the long term changes that concern us. You've set up enough straw men today to make the cornfields of Iowa totally safe from crows. However, the worrisome part is that you not only believe yourself, but millions -- hundreds of millions - of people in the US and Europe believe the same, which condemns the rest of us to an adversely changed climate that will result from your selfishness.

But why do you want to leave that ideal climate, anyway?
Quoting CycloneOz:
I deny that the climate is changing in Ecuador.

It has not changed here in centuries. It is the same here today as it was back in the 1500s when Europeans discovered it.

Does anyone dare to dispute this?
How exactly would you know what the climate of Ecuador, which covers three distinct climate zones, was in 1500? Of course the climate has changed there. I assume you have some kind of point you're trying to make, so batter up!
Quoting 110. CycloneOz:

I deny that the climate is changing in Ecuador.

It has not changed here in centuries. It is the same here today as it was back in the 1500s when Europeans discovered it.

Does anyone dare to dispute this?


Yes.

Jansen, B., et. al., "Reconstruction of late Holocene forest dynamics in northern Ecuador from biomarkers and pollen in soil cores", Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, Volume 386, 15 September 2013, Pages 607–619

Niemann, H., et al, Late Holocene human impact and environmental change inferred from a multi-proxy lake sediment record in the Loja region, southeastern Ecuador, Quaternary International, Volumes 308–309, 2 October 2013, Pages 253–264

De los Milagros Skansi, M., et. al., Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America, Global and Planetary Change, Volume 100, January 2013, Pages 295–307
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ George.... I forgot to mention a local guy was growing wine grapes here in western New Providence about 30 years ago .... before he had been there 5 years he was "accidentally" burned out .... twice .... after that he gave up. The grapes were doing well, too. It would have been interesting to see what he might have accomplished, but it seemed someone was afraid he'd start undercutting the grape importation business.... allegedly.... [shrugs]

What about humidity? Every monsoon season, just like clockwork, our growers in Sonoma County would start to whine about how much the increased humidity was going to make the grapes rot, reduce that harvest, and jack up the price of wine. God forbid if it actually rained - that would be the end of the wine grape season then and there. Is there any truth to that?
It's only a partial shot, but this microwave image gives a pretty good idea of the level of organization in Nuri's core right now. Certainly gives Vongfong a run for its money on strongest storm of this year (Nuri is probably stronger), and it's not too far from rivaling Haiyan. JTWC forecasts it to strengthen to 170kts, which would match Haiyan; I don't think that will happen, in fact I think it probably peaked a few hours ago. But what a storm!



Dry air to its northwest has it a little bit restricted in that direction, but that outflow to the east and south is stunning, it doesn't get better than that.

Well, I wonder what the jet stream is going to do this winter in the US and Europe? Its increasingly erratic behaviour has seen both extremely cold and mild winters in the US north east, last winter being particularly cold.

It all depends on what 'angle of attack' its increasingly large and more southerly 'loops' come from. Last winter, it dragged cold air down from the Arctic to the eastern US, then the loop turned northwards, bringing warm, but very moisture laden air up from the southern North Atlantic to the UK.

The result was that we had the most 'very severe' gale days, here in the UK, in a series beginning in 1871. We had the wettest winter throughout the UK in a series beginning in 1910, and the wettest for England since 1766. It's not just that the loops are becoming larger, they are also becoming much more static.

We live in interesting times. Anyone got an opinion?
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
But why do you want to leave that ideal climate, anyway?


I'll answer this question honestly. Back in October 2013, this very terrible government official here in Ecuador messed up my perfect immigration paperwork.

Since then, I have been living here illegally.

I want to drive and explore South America, but I cannot without the correct paperwork...so I have to return to "my country of birth" for at least 9 months...fix the problem caused by this very terrible bureaucrat, and return.

Hopefully, I'll survive one more stay in the USA. In my opinion, it gets worse there every day.
Quoting CycloneOz:
I deny that the climate is changing in Ecuador.

It has not changed here in centuries. It is the same here today as it was back in the 1500s when Europeans discovered it.

Does anyone dare to dispute this?
Also, Europeans didn't discover Ecuador. Native Americans had been living there for more than 10,000 years when the Europeans arrived.
LOL
Quoting 109. sar2401:

Well, "very soon" time is running out fast. I really hope we do get something down there, since that's out best chance to get a storm in the Gulf and finally give us a soaking rain. Nothing big, a minimal cat 1 will do, but the lack of rain now combined with the low temperatures and very dry air is starting affect even the native vegetation. The relative stability in the Gulf is even affecting what rain we might get from continental fronts, since the return flow from the Gulf isn't as unstable and moisture rich as normal. It's pretty amazing to see one of the strongest early season cold fronts in decades traverse the entire South and the only severe weather anyone got was some snow.


If the winter for the SE coastal areas, especially the Gulf, is predicted to be above average as far as precip is concerned, would the drought cause more trees to be downed if a decent ice storm were to happen?
Quoting 116. MAweatherboy1:

It's only a partial shot, but this microwave image gives a pretty good idea of the level of organization in Nuri's core right now. Certainly gives Vongfong a run for its money on strongest storm of this year (Nuri is probably stronger), and it's not too far from rivaling Haiyan. JTWC forecasts it to strengthen to 170kts, which would match Haiyan; I don't think that will happen, in fact I think it probably peaked a few hours ago. But what a storm!



Dry air to its northwest has it a little bit restricted in that direction, but that outflow to the east and south is stunning, it doesn't get better than that.



Yeah, the coolest of the eyewall convection has warmed slightly over the past few hours, although I'm not quite sure why given the absence of any inner core changes. The upper-air pattern remains excellent. Perhaps a temporary trend, maybe not. The restriction of outflow to the northwest is probably the only thing limiting Nuri from intensifying even more.
Surf looks really fun.(Kennebunk Beach, Maine)
34 degrees with a little snow on the ground. I'm suprised there aren't a few guys out catching some waves.

Quoting 110. CycloneOz:

I deny that the climate is changing in Ecuador.

It has not changed here in centuries. It is the same here today as it was back in the 1500s when Europeans discovered it.

Does anyone dare to dispute this?
I guess Ecuador doesn't have any Andean glaciers or ice fields that supply water in other Andean countries. In the other countries that have them, they have been melting rapidly in recent years due to the warming climate and some of those countries will have to find other sources of water for their people and crops soon. This is generally stated to be caused by the warming climate at a time when, in the Earth's normal cycles it would be cooling. The cause is clearly (except to you) the CO2 emitted by human activity, burning fossil fuels.
HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

Vance continues to gain strength. An eye has recently become
apparent in visible satellite images and the fairly compact inner
core of the hurricane is getting better organized. In addition,
banding features are well established on the north and east sides
of the circulation. The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt,
following the Dvorak intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and
SAB. Vance is currently in favorable environmental conditions with
sea surface temperatures near 29 C, wind shear less than 10 kt, and
high amounts of moisture. Since the hurricane is expected to remain
in this environment for about another 12 to 24 hours, continued
strengthening is predicted in the short term, and the NHC forecast
lies at the high end of the guidance during that time. Beyond 24
hours, however, a substantial increase in southwesterly shear and a
decrease in environmental moisture should cause a steady weakening
trend, and Vance will likely degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4
days.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 14 kt steered by a
mid-level ridge situated to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico.
A turn to the north with a reduction in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 36 hours, followed by a northeastward motion
as a large trough moves eastward toward the cyclone. There has been
an eastward shift in the guidance beyond 48 hours in this cycle, and
the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction.

The initial wind radii were modified based on a pair of ASCAT passes
at around 1700 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


If the winter for the SE coastal areas, especially the Gulf, is predicted to be above average as far as precip is concerned, would the drought cause more trees to be downed if a decent ice storm were to happen?
Probably, although the effects of ice storms are more difficult to predict than windstorms. Ice storms tend to weigh down limbs, causing them to break off, but rarely take down entire trees unless it's a really severe ice storm or the tree was old and diseased. Windstorms are much worse, since more of the root system is affected by prolonged drought. The roots die off at the edges and the tap roots hold less moisture, so their resistance to the lateral force of wind is diminished. Down here, wind storms tend to be road blockers, since entire trees come down, while ice storms tend to be power breakers, since so many limbs fall on power lines that are themselves overloaded with ice.
Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:

Surf looks really fun.(Kennebunk Beach, Maine)
34 degrees with a little snow on the ground. I'm suprised there aren't a few guys out catching some waves.




Look carefully - it appears there are quite a few surfers out there...
Quoting 110. CycloneOz:

I deny that the climate is changing in Ecuador.

It has not changed here in centuries. It is the same here today as it was back in the 1500s when Europeans discovered it.

Does anyone dare to dispute this?


Check out this. Especially frames 32, 35, and 37. Explain that away. if you can.
Quoting 110. CycloneOz:

I deny that the climate is changing in Ecuador.

It has not changed here in centuries. It is the same here today as it was back in the 1500s when Europeans discovered it.

Does anyone dare to dispute this?

I won't waste much time "disputing" your non-scientific statement, because Ecuador's problems are well documented. For instance, did you know that between 1996 and 2008, Ecuador’s glacier coverage dropped by 28%? Did you know that Cotopaxi--one of the most active volcanoes in the world, and one of the main sources of water for the Ecuadorian capital of Quito--saw a 30% reduction in glacier coverage between 1976 and 1997? (Source) Did you know that Empresa Eléctrica Quito confirmed that the amount of water available to the capital was reduced by 50% between 1978 and 2008? Did you know that between 2050 and 2100 experts expect glaciers to retreat at least 55% in the Andes in tandem with an increase in temperature between 2 and 8°C in the Amazon region?

At any rate, even if Ecuador wasn't feeling the effects of the changing climate--which, all denial aside, it is most certainly is--there are mountains of evidence of change elsewhere.
Quoting 128. Snowfire:



Check out this. Especially frames 32, 35, and 37. Explain that away. if you can.


Triple +++ good!
Quoting 95. wunderkidcayman:



Something will form down there maybe not today or next week but very soon

how are you so sure wunderkidcayman? if its not this week or next, then when? Only 2 more weeks of hurricane season left after next week
Quoting 39. StormTrackerScott:

Both the GFS & Euro models are keying in on what could be a harsh Winter for the Eastern US. Last year it was the Midwest and this year the cold appears to be aimed at the east. Just look at how this pattern is beginning to evolve as we get deeper into November.

One trough after another just keeps digging across the east every few days.



I hope for some more winter precip to the Gulf Coast. Maybe this time we could get some actual accumulations.
The situation is out of control and there is every grounds for panic.
Quoting 126. sar2401:
Probably, although the effects of ice storms are more difficult to predict than windstorms. Ice storms tend to weigh down limbs, causing them to break off, but rarely take down entire trees unless it's a really severe ice storm or the tree was old and diseased. Windstorms are much worse, since more of the root system is affected by prolonged drought. The roots die off at the edges and the tap roots hold less moisture, so their resistance to the lateral force of wind is diminished. Down here, wind storms tend to be road blockers, since entire trees come down, while ice storms tend to be power breakers, since so many limbs fall on power lines that are themselves overloaded with ice.


The southern US is in the for one heck of a Winter a Sar. We could all get anywhere from severe weather to wintry weather the next day. Very volatile pattern getting set up for this Winter it appears. I would venture to say this is a southerns dream Winter this year.

You can thank this El-Nino continuing to gather steam It will also be interesting to see what happens into next Spring & Summer as the models are now trending for Strong El-Nino.


Models project a strong negative NAO/AO with a positive PNA pattern coming into fruition over the next week or so. Expect sustained cold air outbreaks over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with increased changes of snow in that region.
Quoting 102. CycloneOz:



Looks like a nor'easter, doesn't it?
My relatives in coastal MA said they got about an inch of snow during the blue part of that loop..... course it looks like the rain will have wiped out most of that already....

Quoting 111. sar2401:

Don't think I didn't notice that tricky spelling error there, Beell. :-)
Never mind his tricky spelling error... I'm just trying to keep up with one of the multiple meanings of various words in various posts on the blog this afternoon.... talk about tricky rickies...
Quoting 137. Drakoen:

Models project a strong negative NAO/AO with a positive PNA pattern coming into fruition over the next week or so. Expect sustained cold air outbreaks over the 2/3rds of the CONUS with increased changes of snow in that region.



Which 2/3? :)
Looks like Millinockett northward through Houlton and Caribou getting the lion's share. Good for their economy. Winter snowmobile related tourism brings in additional dollars. There is a huge network of trails up there that go into the Canadian trail system as well.

Quoting 102. CycloneOz:



Looks like a nor'easter, doesn't it?
Quoting 139. BaltimoreBrian:


Which 2/3? :)


Eastern 2/3rds. As a result of this Typhoon recurving in the Pacific the Euro tanks the AO.
Quoting 115. sar2401:

What about humidity? Every monsoon season, just like clockwork, our growers in Sonoma County would start to whine about how much the increased humidity was going to make the grapes rot, reduce that harvest, and jack up the price of wine. God forbid if it actually rained - that would be the end of the wine grape season then and there. Is there any truth to that?
Don't really know.... I'm not sure what practices this guy planned to employ to keep his grapes viable for wine pressing. However, he was doing this in the '80s, when rainfall patterns didn't involve much in the way of TCs. Keep in mind humidity here is pretty constantly above 70%... I don't know if he even took that into account ... be that as it may - he certainly didn't last very long.... he may have harvested as many as two seasons of grapes at the most....
Quoting 134. StormTrackerScott:



The southern US is in the for one heck of a Winter a Sar. We could all get anywhere from severe weather to wintry weather the next day. Very volatile pattern getting set up for this Winter it appears. I would venture to say this is a southerns dream Winter this year.

You can thank this El-Nino continuing to gather steam It will also be interesting to see what happens into next Spring & Summer as the models are now trending for Strong El-Nino.


img
src="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/ imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">

How about South Florida?
There are things I do not know about these projections. Many secondary effects are now kicking in as formerly wet areas become more drought-prone. For example, the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere from peat fires in Indonesia alone is said to exceed the entire sink capacity of the planet. Such fires, like coal seam fires, are almost impossible to extinguish once they get going, and in any case this is only one of a number of "feedback" sources whose origin is anthropogenic but whose continuation is not dependent on further human action. Even if human output became zero tomorrow, would it really avert what is coming? Should our emphasis be on trying to reclaim a semblance of past reality (via geoengineering or whatever,) or on learning to adapt to a new reality?I do not claim the wisdom to know the answers, but the questions must be asked.

Quoting 139. BaltimoreBrian:



Which 2/3? :)
lol eastern. I thought I had written that but I guess not.
Quoting ekogaia:


Look carefully - it appears there are quite a few surfers out there...


I tried to see if they (black specs) were actual surfers. I watched the cam for about 30 minutes earlier and I never saw anyone ride a wave. Maybe they're just frozen to their board?
Quoting 146. Drakoen:

lol eastern. I thought I had written that but I guess not.


I mopped it up for ya.
Sar, your lawn will go prematurely dormant, but the weeds won't ;-( Luckily I have had enough rain around here.

May want to consider a fall application of pre-emergent. Contact your local USDA as they will know the scoop.

Quoting 109. sar2401:

Well, "very soon" time is running out fast. I really hope we do get something down there, since that's out best chance to get a storm in the Gulf and finally give us a soaking rain. Nothing big, a minimal cat 1 will do, but the lack of rain now combined with the low temperatures and very dry air is starting affect even the native vegetation. The relative stability in the Gulf is even affecting what rain we might get from continental fronts, since the return flow from the Gulf isn't as unstable and moisture rich as normal. It's pretty amazing to see one of the strongest early season cold fronts in decades traverse the entire South and the only severe weather anyone got was some snow.
Quoting 144. nygiants:

How about South Florida?


Florida in general can expect a wetter and cooler than average Winter. GFS & Euro ensembles all look very wet now across the Gulf & FL in the long range. Going to be interesting to see how all of this rain interacts with Arctic air coming south every few days.
Quoting 96. beell:

@84.
Morning, Baha.

"What is the IPCC plan to reign in China, Russia and India"

Rein in? like pull in?

Damn those tricky homophobes! Spelling matters!
;-)
Hey... I just wanted to make sure I understood the comment... on Sundays I can't claim to be firing on all cylinders. .... lol ...
Scott what are your thoughts of the Euro showing a major East coastal storm next weekend ?

Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



I mopped it up for ya.
Quoting 124. CaneFreeCR:

I guess Ecuador doesn't have any Andean glaciers or ice fields that supply water in other Andean countries. In the other countries that have them, they have been melting rapidly in recent years due to the warming climate and some of those countries will have to find other sources of water for their people and crops soon. This is generally stated to be caused by the warming climate at a time when, in the Earth's normal cycles it would be cooling. The cause is clearly (except to you) the CO2 emitted by human activity, burning fossil fuels.


The glaciers and icefields on most of the big volcanos in Ecuador are shrinking especially Cotopaxi, Chimborazo and Cayambe. I've been coming here since 2008 and have property on the coast, things are changing here...



The glaciers on most of the big volcanos are slowly disappearing, Cotopaxi and Cayambe in particular.
Firsthand Weather 2014-2015 Winter Forecast.
NAM has a low trying to sneak into the Bahamas from the east before the next front moves in.
Quoting 155. Sfloridacat5:

NAM has a low trying to sneak into the Bahamas from the east before the next front moves in.

Uh... no, t'anks....
Quoting 152. weatherlover94:
Scott what are your thoughts of the Euro showing a major East coastal storm next weekend ?



I think we are entering a very active pattern for the south and east coast of the US. I think its very possible we could have a similar set late next week as we just had this weekend.

There are some guys off to the right. This is Gooch's Beach. I used to surf here often. It faces south so it is basically smaller, more manageable and offshore during winter Nor'easters. The wave breaks pretty close to the beach and can be quite hollow.

Higgins Beach further south is another south facer. When it gets big the lineup is way outside. Long waves, less hollow, but a rough paddle out with all the rubber on and cold water. See link for Higgins. Note 5PM already dark.

Really surprised both breaks are not bigger from this storm.

Link

Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:

Surf looks really fun.(Kennebunk Beach, Maine)
34 degrees with a little snow on the ground. I'm suprised there aren't a few guys out catching some waves.


The stormy pattern that November has as usual means once we hit December game on!
Quoting 129. Neapolitan:


I won't waste much time "disputing" your non-scientific statement, because Ecuador's problems are well documented. For instance, did you know that between 1996 and 2008, Ecuador’s glacier coverage dropped by 28%? Did you know that Cotopaxi--one of the most active volcanoes in the world, and one of the main sources of water for the Ecuadorian capital of Quito--saw a 30% reduction in glacier coverage between 1976 and 1997? (Source) Did you know that Empresa Eléctrica Quito confirmed that the amount of water available to the capital was reduced by 50% between 1978 and 2008? Did you know that between 2050 and 2100 experts expect glaciers to retreat at least 55% in the Andes in tandem with an increase in temperature between 2 and 8°C in the Amazon region?

At any rate, even if Ecuador wasn't feeling the effects of the changing climate--which, all denial aside, it is most certainly is--there are mountains of evidence of change elsewhere.


Don't forget Ecuador, like almost every place in the world, has also seen increases in temperature...



Link
Quoting 159. Climate175:

The stormy pattern that November has as usual means once we hit December game on!


Actually with the exception of an early PNA lock with western ridge/eastern trough which is probably a central Pacific (Modoki) El Nino signal and tends to last the winter with that pattern, November conditions are not much predictive of December conditions. We''l see what happened next April.

50F, dewpoint 15F. Breezy and COLD in my garden but if the wind holds I don't think we'll freeze in College Park. MD But if we decouple, and the wind dies we will. I picked a bunch of "last stuff" in the garden so I guess I'm ready.
Sweetcorn and broccoli tonight on the dinner table (along with pot roast which I don't .... uuhh.... raise at home). Lettuce, broccoli, and lima beans in the fridge and buckets of potatoes and sweetpotatoes in the basement.
Quoting 153. Frasersgrove:



The glaciers and icefields on most of the big volcanos in Ecuador are shrinking especially Cotopaxi, Chimborazo and Cayambe. I've been coming here since 2008 and have property on the coast, things are changing here...



The glaciers on most of the big volcanos are slowly disappearing, Cotopaxi and Cayambe in particular.
Yes, my comment was a bit sarcastic, to see if he'd noticed that there have been some pretty serious changes in Ecuador as well as in Bolivia and Peru and other South American countries, as a result of the warming climate. Guess I missed the target!
Quoting 159. Climate175:

The stormy pattern that November has as usual means once we hit December game on!
No not really.Last December was a Flop.It was 70 degrees at 10:00 at night on December 7th.The rest of December stayed above average.January is when the cold started to really lock in.
164. txjac
Quoting 161. georgevandenberghe:



Actually with the exception of an early PNA lock with western ridge/eastern trough which is probably a central Pacific (Modoki) El Nino signal and tends to last the winter with that pattern, November conditions are not much predictive of December conditions. We''l see what happened next April.

50F, dewpoint 15F. Breezy and COLD in my garden but if the wind holds I don't think we'll freeze in College Park. MD But if we decouple, and the wind dies we will. I picked a bunch of "last stuff" in the garden so I guess I'm ready.
Sweetcorn and broccoli tonight on the dinner table (along with pot roast which I don't .... uuhh.... raise at home). Lettuce, broccoli, and lima beans in the fridge and buckets of potatoes and sweetpotatoes in the basement.




I cant wait to get my own "piece" of land and grow some veggies ...so jealous of you that do.
I do manage a few herbs and tomato plants though.
165. txjac
Quoting 163. washingtonian115:

No not really.Last December was a Flop.It was 70 degrees at 10:00 at night on December 7th.The rest of December stayed above average.January is when the cold started to really lock in.


Well whatever happens I hope that it makes you happy Washi
I like to watch you get excited about the snow
Sun is coming up on Nuri..

Quoting 165. txjac:



Well whatever happens I hope that it makes you happy Washi
I like to watch you get excited about the snow
I have the snow shovels ready and the salt.I'm going to buy new pairs of Boots for the kids and I.I predict at least one good snow storm.

Well I'm off.

168. txjac
@266 Sky
That's indescribable ...wow.
Quoting 163. washingtonian115:

No not really.Last December was a Flop.It was 70 degrees at 10:00 at night on December 7th.The rest of December stayed above average.January is when the cold started to really lock in.
I agree.
All I want is just one day of snow this winter lol. Last winter was horrendous. :(
Quoting 124. CaneFreeCR:

I guess Ecuador doesn't have any Andean glaciers or ice fields that supply water in other Andean countries. In the other countries that have them, they have been melting rapidly in recent years due to the warming climate and some of those countries will have to find other sources of water for their people and crops soon. This is generally stated to be caused by the warming climate at a time when, in the Earth's normal cycles it would be cooling. The cause is clearly (except to you) the CO2 emitted by human activity, burning fossil fuels.


Evaluating the Impact of Glacier Shrinkage on Water Supply at Volcan Chimborazo, Ecuador
La Frenierre, J.; Mark, B. G.
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, abstract #GC21E-04
....Over the past quarter-century, increased water stress has been a key driver of shifting livelihood patterns in the agrarian communities below the mountain, with persistent glacier retreat one of multiple biophysical and socio-economic forcing mechanisms. Since 1986, Chimborazo has lost 20.5% of its glacier surface area (0.8%/yr). While station records indicate patterns of climate change consistent with those reported elsewhere in the tropical Andes (temperature increase of 1.1C/decade; no statistically-significant changes in precipitation since 1985), there is a very strong local perception that surface water sources are diminishing and that rainfall patterns are becoming less predictable. In the Rio Mocha watershed (the most highly-glacierized of Chimborazo's catchments), glacier meltwater currently contributes ~10-20% of Rio Mocha discharge at the intake of the Las Abras canal, the region's most important irrigation system. ...


Chimborazo (20,564 ft) (I've been there in 1996, my only hiking journey to South America, so it's a precious mountain for me).
And good evening guys. I see a lively discussion is happening ;-)


BTW, French red wine is precious for me, too, lol, so I dislike those news:

The Grapes of Wrath: France's Great Wines Are Feeling the Heat
Spiegel English, Oct 30, 2014, By Ullrich Fichtner
In France, climate change is no longer just an abstract problem. The culinary country's grand wine culture is threatened by rising global temperatures. Vintners are fighting to save a part of our world culture heritage that spans the last two millennia. ...
Quoting 161. georgevandenberghe:



Actually with the exception of an early PNA lock with western ridge/eastern trough which is probably a central Pacific (Modoki) El Nino signal and tends to last the winter with that pattern, November conditions are not much predictive of December conditions. We''l see what happened next April.

50F, dewpoint 15F. Breezy and COLD in my garden but if the wind holds I don't think we'll freeze in College Park. MD But if we decouple, and the wind dies we will. I picked a bunch of "last stuff" in the garden so I guess I'm ready.
Sweetcorn and broccoli tonight on the dinner table (along with pot roast which I don't .... uuhh.... raise at home). Lettuce, broccoli, and lima beans in the fridge and buckets of potatoes and sweetpotatoes in the basement.

Jan-Feb is gonna be Jamming!
Quoting 164. txjac:



I cant wait to get my own "piece" of land and grow some veggies ...so jealous of you that do.
I do manage a few herbs and tomato plants though.

I have a rental garden plot through PG county. My house from 1992-2010 was covered with trees and I couldn't grow much. PG changed occupancy from Apr1-Oct 1, to March 1-Dec 1 which opens up a lot more opportunities for early season and fall gardening.
Quoting 6. JeffMasters:



Certainly a remarkable event, but it's a Sunday, and I'm only devoting my time to covering one story.

Dr. M.

Well at least the snow will melt and the sun will come out again along with spring flowers and summer droughts!

Back to the reality in hands, along with minds on the blog heading.
All this talk about what is probably going to happen if we dont do something to stop it. What I would like to see now is a form of aceptance that the climate change is probably inevertable and instead of telling every body that its coming, insted tell everybody what it will be like for those who are lucky enough to be in a position to survive it.

Personally there are too many reasons why the CO2 levels will continue to rise and only Draconian govenmental measures can possible stop them and nobody really belives that any serious legislation is going to be passed.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NAM has a low trying to sneak into the Bahamas from the east before the next front moves in.


parallel GFS shows the same



normal GFS shows the same but weaker



the Euro showed it earlier but is the weakest



CMC/GEM also showed it earlier also was weak



NAVGEM has it but slightly bit earlier timeframe



JMA also has it but has it weak

The idea of a modoki El Nino this winter is still being thrown around by many in the weather community, and I honestly don't understand why. None of the reliable computer guidance indicates a modoki El Nino, and one is not supported by recent trends. Ocean temperatures in Nino region 1+2 have weakened slightly due to increased trades associated with the formation of Hurricane Vance, but up until now, that's where the warmest waters relative to average have been. A Modoki El Nino features much cooler than average temperatures here.

In other news, it's nice to finally see a traditional positive PDO pattern instead of the widespread warmth in the North Pacific.

As a sideglance: This is low "Pia", shoveling very warm air ahead of her into western Europe for the last days, but now her cold front is approaching Germany (although not really freezing cold; it's still quite mild for this time of the season):





Today in England (tornado in November??):

Coalville shopping centre closed after wind damage
2 November 2014 Last updated at 17:26 GMT
A shopping centre was closed after high winds caused damage in a Leicestershire town.
Part of the roof of Store Twenty One at Belvoir Shopping Centre in Coalville was ripped off and several other businesses were damaged, police said.
Coalville resident Theresa Bowron said part of her roof was blown off and other nearby houses were damaged.
A Met Office spokesman said: "The set-up was conducive to tornadic activity and we have had some reliable reports."
However, BBC weather presenter Charlie Salter said it was difficult to confirm the area had been hit by a tornado as there was not any proof of funnel clouds touching down and causing damage. ...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The southern US is in the for one heck of a Winter a Sar. We could all get anywhere from severe weather to wintry weather the next day. Very volatile pattern getting set up for this Winter it appears. I would venture to say this is a southerns dream Winter this year.

You can thank this El-Nino continuing to gather steam It will also be interesting to see what happens into next Spring & Summer as the models are now trending for Strong El-Nino.



Before we hop back back on the El Nino train, which has been waiting at the station since last year at this time, this is what the experts say:

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season. This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 0.9oC) throughout its duration. In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015

October's now in the books with no El Nino. While it's likely that we still get El Nino before the end of December, none of the experts are saying that it will last longer than spring of 2015. This is what the chart you posted looked like in May of 2014-

Link

Some of the most bullish dynamical models were completely wrong. The statistical models have been closer to right so far. In terms of strength, Jan Null, the retired lead forecaster for the San Francisco NWS and acknowledged El Nino expert, says "From the current forecast there is still just a 67% possibility of an El Niño later this year. And if one does occur it is forecast to be a "weak" event and historically these are the ones that have a very broad spectrum of outcomes.". Link

None of this is my opinion. I'm just repeating what the experts are saying.
Sweet potatoes here in buckets too. So easy to grow here. No maintenance. Harvested about 6 weeks ago.

Covered my bell peppers tonight, should get at least another week of growth after this. Cabbage about racquetball size now. Broccoli florets beginning to show. So some fresh stuff for Thanksgiving.

We didn't decouple last night, got to 39. We are going to decouple tonight, looks like 32 is in the bag. Warm up starts tomorrow.

Always appreciate your posts.


Quoting 161. georgevandenberghe:



Actually with the exception of an early PNA lock with western ridge/eastern trough which is probably a central Pacific (Modoki) El Nino signal and tends to last the winter with that pattern, November conditions are not much predictive of December conditions. We''l see what happened next April.

50F, dewpoint 15F. Breezy and COLD in my garden but if the wind holds I don't think we'll freeze in College Park. MD But if we decouple, and the wind dies we will. I picked a bunch of "last stuff" in the garden so I guess I'm ready.
Sweetcorn and broccoli tonight on the dinner table (along with pot roast which I don't .... uuhh.... raise at home). Lettuce, broccoli, and lima beans in the fridge and buckets of potatoes and sweetpotatoes in the basement.

Quoting 165. txjac:



Well whatever happens I hope that it makes you happy Washi
I like to watch you get excited about the snow
I hope we get to see the teddy bear at least once this season.... lol ... it worked!

Nuri
2014NOV02 223200 7.7 893.7 161.0 7.4 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 9.19 -78.16 EYE 19 IR 73.6 18.40 -132.48 COMBO MTSAT2 25.9

Quoting 184. hydrus:



Now thats intersting for the 2nd of Novermber!
Did you do it with an airbrush?
Quoting 162. CaneFreeCR:

Yes, my comment was a bit sarcastic, to see if he'd noticed that there have been some pretty serious changes in Ecuador as well as in Bolivia and Peru and other South American countries, as a result of the warming climate. Guess I missed the target!




I first visited S. America with a school trip in the early eighties and went to Huaraz, Peru to hike in the Corrdilla Blanca( White Mountains). When I went back in 2010 is was shocked at how much most of the glaciers had shrunk. When those glaciers go Peru will feel a world of hurt...
Well tonight is going to be cold! the Forecast was 55 it is 56 right now with no Wind and no Clouds at 6:30pm
Quoting barbamz:
As a sideglance: This is low "Pia", shoveling very warm air ahead of her into western Europe for the last days, but now her cold front is approaching Germany (although not really freezing cold; it's still quite mild for this time of the season):





Today in England:

Coalville shopping centre closed after wind damage
2 November 2014 Last updated at 17:26 GMT
A shopping centre was closed after high winds caused damage in a Leicestershire town.
Part of the roof of Store Twenty One at Belvoir Shopping Centre in Coalville was ripped off and several other businesses were damaged, police said.
Coalville resident Theresa Bowron said part of her roof was blown off and other nearby houses were damaged.
A Met Office spokesman said: "The set-up was conducive to tornadic activity and we have had some reliable reports."
However, BBC weather presenter Charlie Salter said it was difficult to confirm the area had been hit by a tornado as there was not any proof of funnel clouds touching down and causing damage. ...
That's one of the problems with naming lows. All I can see when I look at low "Pia" is a mental picture of Pia Zadora, one of the lowest talent actresses in history.

For the pictures in England, the damage looks like typical straight line winds. I notice the lights are still on at the shopping center. It's rare to have a tornado and have the power remain on. The term "ripped off part of a roof" is a little loose also. We had a storm come though a couple of years ago, and one of my elderly neighbors came running down saying the wind had ripped off part of her roof. She knew I used to be in search and rescue and wanted me to rescue her dog that was trapped in the house. I grabbed my hard hat, gloves, and pry bar and ran back up the street with her. Part of her roof had been ripped off...about eight shingles by the kitchen. I'm sure it looked worse to her. I walked into the kitchen and bought Muffin back out for a tearful reunion. Since then, I've been her hero.

Awwww.... :-)
Quoting 186. PlazaRed:


Now thats intersting for the 2nd of Novermber!
Did you do it with an airbrush?
Nope...Slammed the pallet on the water Jackson Pollack style..
74 degrees here for us tonight, really enjoying the cool down for a change! :)

Pretty wild.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the
week near the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas. This system could acquire subtropical
characteristics before it moves northeastward and weakens or merges
with a frontal system toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting Doppler22:
Oh my... a fire has started close to me and in these winds it is bound to spread quickly. The fire depts. are going to have a tough time fighting these fires.

THERE'S A FIRE IN YOUR NEIGHBOR'S!!!
Another supertyphoon spares PH
Current forecasts point to Paeng/Nuri becoming the year's strongest storm
Rappler, some minutes ago
... Current forecasts point to Paeng/Nuri becoming the year's strongest storm, but is still unlikely to surpass the intensity of November 2013's Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), Mashable said.
The JTWC predicts the typhoon might reach maximum sustained winds of up to 170 kt (315 km/h) and gusts of up to 205 kt (380 km/h) by noon Philippine time Monday. It is then expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters of the northwest Pacific. ...


True that? Nuri (has been) the season's strongest storm?



You guys will figure it out. Late good night from Germany and have a good start into the new week!
196. 882MB
Quoting 193. Tropicsweatherpr:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the
week near the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas. This system could acquire subtropical
characteristics before it moves northeastward and weakens or merges
with a frontal system toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Thanks for mentioning that, that's system is what might originate from the strong ULL, that will form over Hispaniola, and bring very heavy rains to PR, NWS wants to issue a Flash Flood Watch, but is waiting on more model consistency, though looks like quite a stormy week across the greater Antilles. Especially DR and PR, Cuba looks to be on the dry side of the ULL.
The Forecast was 55 now down to 53 right now!
Quoting 187. Frasersgrove:





I first visited S. America with a school trip in the early eighties and went to Huaraz, Peru to hike in the Corrdilla Blanca( White Mountains). When I went back in 2010 is was shocked at how much most of the glaciers had shrunk. When those glaciers go Peru will feel a world of hurt...


Here's a few pictures of what used to be the world's highest ski resort:



2005



2003


1994



1940

Read more here ...
Holy pinhole eye. Look closely, you'll see it.

Then again, in 2009 I remember distinctly that it got into the upper 20's in late October. It hasn't gotten that cold that early any other time since 2007 that I've noticed.

This was leading into the 2009-2010 winter which was oh-so cold for all of Florida, with freezes well south of Orlando.
Quoting 170. Envoirment:

All I want is just one day of snow this winter lol. Last winter was horrendous. :(

Ew no. I want more than one day of snow. XD

And I am sure Washingtonian and Climate agree with me :D
Quoting 882MB:


Thanks for mentioning that, that's system is what might originate from the strong ULL, that will form over Hispaniola, and bring very heavy rains to PR, NWS wants to issue a Flash Flood Watch, but is waiting on more model consistency, though looks like quite a stormy week across the greater Antilles. Especially DR and PR, Cuba looks to be on the dry side of the ULL.
Yes another episode for central and eastern Caribbean....
Got down to 26 that year in Loxahatchee in Palm Beach!
Quoting 200. opal92nwf:

Then again, in 2009 I remember distinctly that it got into the upper 20's in late October. It hasn't gotten that cold that early any other time since 2007 that I've noticed.

This was leading into the 2009-2010 winter which was oh-so cold for all of Florida, with freezes well south of Orlando.
204. 882MB
Quoting 202. HuracanTaino:

Yes another episode for central and eastern Caribbean....


I know, I know,I guess mother nature wanted to give the western Caribbean a break this year from bad weather, is that a bad thing? You sound disappointed, are you anywhere in the Western Caribbean?
Quoting 199. MAweatherboy1:

Holy pinhole eye. Look closely, you'll see it.




What is it means?
Vance up tp 90kts.

EP, 21, 2014110300, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1093W, 90, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 10, 1008, 200, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, VANCE, D,
Very last thing. Where is our ever complaining CaribBoy when you need him? This recent pic from his island St. Barth goes viral on European weather sites. Quite a show (but did it really happen recently? 7 exposures combined btw)!

Link

Severe Weather Europe
BANG. We need to share this photo from St. Barth, Carribean last night. Simply outstanding Mother Nature's show!
Source: Muscapix MG
208. MAstu
It snowed all day today... Why did I move to Boston? Oh yea, awesome job with cool people as a risk analyst for a catastrophe modeling company. But snow already???
Vance...

It looks like Vance may have peaked at 90kts.

TXPZ21 KNES 030021
TCSENP

A. 21E (VANCE)

B. 03/0000Z

C. 13.2N

D. 109.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH WH EYE
EMBEDDED BY CMG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. SYYSTEM HAS PEAKED
AND ON WEAKENING TREND.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the
week near the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas. This system could acquire subtropical
characteristics before it moves northeastward and weakens or merges
with a frontal system toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


not surprised

maybe STS Isaias during the week
Quoting 210. Tropicsweatherpr:

It looks like Vance may have peaked at 90kts.

TXPZ21 KNES 030021
TCSENP

A. 21E (VANCE)

B. 03/0000Z

C. 13.2N

D. 109.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON WH SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE WITH WH EYE
EMBEDDED BY CMG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. SYYSTEM HAS PEAKED
AND ON WEAKENING TREND.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

I don't see any indications that this has peaked. The central dense overcast continues to expand while convection deepens.

I think this will peak as a major hurricane overnight.
cool dry day in ECFL today

wow, look at all that moisture in the CATL
It doesn't look half as good as it did a few hours ago. Can't even see a discernible eye anymore

215. flsky
Make the cold go away! Actually, supposed to be in the 70s tomorrow in ECFL.
Quoting 213. Chicklit:

cool dry day in ECFL today

wow, look at all that moisture in the CATL

216. flsky
Make all the money you can, then high-tail it out of there!
Quoting 208. MAstu:

It snowed all day today... Why did I move to Boston? Oh yea, awesome job with cool people as a risk analyst for a catastrophe modeling company. But snow already???
217. txjac
woo-wee ...my mind always gets confused with the time changes
7:18 pm and it's total dark out ...it just feels "off" to me
Need an adjustment period
Last night I speculated Nantucket might get a gust or two close to 70mph as this coastal storm passes by. Looks like 70 on the nose was the number, that's the highest gust I could find.

NANTUCKET 70 1130 AM 11/02 HAM RADIO

Not exactly a fair comparison, but Mt. Washington has so far recorded a peak gust of 113mph.
Super Typhoon Nuri

Super Typhoon Nuri
Last Updated Nov 3, 2014 00 GMT
Location 18.5N 132.6E Movement N
Wind 180 MPH
Quoting 209. GeoffreyWPB:

Vance...




Vivian - 1985

Quoting 214. Grothar:

It doesn't look half as good as it did a few hours ago. Can't even see a discernible eye anymore



I have a feeling he is going to pop out a beautiful eye to stare at us overnight.
222. flsky
Who is Matthew Holiday?
Quoting 154. Climate175:

Firsthand Weather 2014-2015 Winter Forecast.
Quoting 222. flsky:

Who is Matthew Holiday?

Link
224. flsky
U.N. issues stark climate change report on acute threats
Link
http://www.skyscraperlive.com/wired-in.html

Noe totally related to weather, but nik wallenda is walking across 2 skyscrapers in Chicago.
http://www.skyscraperlive.com/wired-in.html

3 eyed monster
Quoting 222. flsky:

Who is Matthew Holiday?



Google..... Nerds!!!
Actually, weather does influence it. Wind tunnels. 'Nuff said. Jim cantore's also there. It's also on discovery Channel too.
Looks like Vance's eye is about to make a reappearance after briefly becoming obscured by deep convection.

Quoting 229. trunkmonkey:


These pictures could have been taken at different months of the year to make it look like it was all the same, I didn't see any time stamps on the pics, ya know I can take pics of Pikes Peak, and have the same effects, take a pic in March or April, then take a pic in early October with little or no snowfall, this could be bogus! as far as I know!


Uhh...glaciers don't work like that. Do you know what a glacier is?
233. eddye
is it me our the models showeing another cold front next friday comeing through orlando being pretty cold
234. flsky
Seems he's a student
Quoting 228. bryanfromkyleTX:



Google..... Nerds!!!
Quoting 232. Naga5000:



Uhh...glaciers don't work like that. Do you know what a glacier is?
One of the regulars over on Wunderphotos posts pics of Alaskan glaciers on a regular basis. Spectacular, informative imagery, that.
236. flsky
I hope not. I HATE cold weather. sheesh
Quoting 233. eddye:

is it me our the models showeing another cold front next friday comeing through orlando being pretty cold
Quoting 236. flsky:

I hope not. I HATE cold weather. sheesh



Same here.
Nuri
Quoting 235. BahaHurican:

One of the regulars over on Wunderphotos posts pics of Alaskan glaciers on a regular basis. Spectacular, informative imagery, that.


Glacier National Park is on my short list of places to visit. I've only seen them in photos and videos. Absolutely incredible.
Quoting 231. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like Vance's eye is about to make a reappearance after briefly becoming obscured by deep convection.



Vance is probably a Category 2 Hurricane at least right now. The cloud tops have cooled significantly since this morning.
Quoting 238. Skyepony:

Nuri

Greetings Skye....West Pacific produces massive and impressive storms....A Fascinating image of atmospheric power..
Nice Weather.

Caribou, ME
Caribou Municipal | Change Station
Active Advisory: Winter Storm Warning Active Notice: Public Information Statement
Elev 623 ft 46.87 °N, 68.02 °W | Updated 12 min ago

Light Snow
Light Snow
30 °F
Feels Like 15 °F
N28
Wind from NNW
Gusts 45 mph
Quoting 239. Naga5000:



Glacier National Park is on my short list of places to visit. I've only seen them in photos and videos. Absolutely incredible.


Better get there in a hurry , they're melting fast.

You think there might be a W?

Looks like last year already....

Quoting 245. Grothar:

You think there might be a W?


Good evening Gro...MJO is still around...One would think the water would have been mixed and cool from upwelling.
Now expected to become a Category 3 hurricane overnight.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

...VANCE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030254 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 ...VANCE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 109.6W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VANCE MAY INTENSIFY SOME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Quoting 246. hydrus:

Looks like last year already....




NOOOOOOOOO!!!
Very good video from the IPCC. I hope it continues to raise awareness to the general public of the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability from Climate Change.
Quoting trunkmonkey:

These pictures could have been taken at different months of the year to make it look like it was all the same, I didn't see any time stamps on the pics, ya know I can take pics of Pikes Peak, and have the same effects, take a pic in March or April, then take a pic in early October with little or no snowfall, this could be bogus! as far as I know!
Tell me you're kidding. Seriously. This has to be a joke...you know, like ha ha...You don't really believe they made up bunch of fake pictures about a fake glacier that fake people used to ski on in a fake country called Bolivia, right?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Now expected to become a Category 3 hurricane overnight.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

...VANCE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
Not bad for a hurricane that was supposedly at its peak six hours ago. The Pacific has really been amazing this year. El Nino, or the lack thereof, can't be the only explanation. At least we have a 20% chance to see maybe a subtropical storm in five days over here though. The anticipation is just killing me...
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


NOOOOOOOOO!!!
Already down to 38 here. It didn't reach 37 until 0200 (CST, so we don't confuse things)this morning. Birmingham did finally go ahead and issue a frost advisory for temperatures in the mid-30's. I expect someone will glance over at the temperatures in the next hour or so and issue a freeze warning since they're always right on top of things.

South Alabama is about as far north as I want to live until this whole climate change thing is squared away. :-)
255. vis0
CREDIT::NOAA,presented through Univ. Of Washington.
SUBJECT:: Hurricane Vance (ePac)







Fair

36°F

2°C

Humidity79%
Wind SpeedW 5 mph
Barometer30.35 in (1027.8 mb)
Dewpoint30°F (-1°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill32°F (0°C)

Last Update on 2 Nov 10:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

Its mighty cold in Florida for early November! Big warmup in a couple days though.
epac

Already down to 33F here. Looks like we'll be dipping into the upper 20s by daybreak. Brr.
A brief report from the nor-easter in the Gulf of Maine. The barometer hit 974 mb a few hours ago, but has been rising slowly since then. Winds have been strengthening from the west; I would reckon gusts to 70 km/h at this point. A whole lot of rain all weekend. Current temps of 2 degrees C, and I think I heard freezing rain for a while.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Fair

36°F

2°C

Humidity79%
Wind SpeedW 5 mph
Barometer30.35 in (1027.8 mb)
Dewpoint30°F (-1°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill32°F (0°C)

Last Update on 2 Nov 10:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

Its mighty cold in Florida for early November! Big warmup in a couple days though.


That's colder than I am in NJ. The retirees and tax refugees are NOT happy right now, lol.
Quoting 261. wxgeek723:



That's colder than I am in NJ. The retirees and tax refugees are NOT happy right now, lol.


Yeah its funny, temps in this area can get amazingly cold for overnight lows given a cold and very dry airmass like this. Its likely because northern FL is very rural, Tallahassee is the biggest city across all of north Florida until you go all the way west to Pensacola or all the way east to Jacksonville, and the population is only a little over 50,000. Outside of Tallahassee, its mostly rural expanse with occasional small towns of 4-8000 people at the largest.

Add that to the soil composition, and its a great place for cold overnight lows. I've seen Tallahassee a number of times end up colder than Atlanta for lows during the peak of a cold blast. Obviously, suburbs and beyond around Atlanta get colder, but we often get colder overnight lows during strong cold events than larger cities quite a bit north of here. Urbanization and soil composition makes a big difference.
Good morning with wobbeling Nuri. A really beautiful bird (Wiki: "The name Nuri is Malay for a blue crowned parroquet, a type of parrot.").



Quoting 263. barbamz:

Good morning with wobbeling Nuri.




Good morning with wobbling polar vort..:)

Fair

31°F

-1°C

Humidity82%
Wind SpeedW 3 mph
Barometer30.34 in (1027.4 mb)
Dewpoint26°F (-3°C)
VisibilityNA

Last Update on 3 Nov 3:53 am EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

31 degrees in Florida, on November 3rd, gotta love it, my heater has been almost constantly running since 8 PM.
Quoting 265. Jedkins01:

Fair

31°F

-1°C

Humidity82%
Wind SpeedW 3 mph
Barometer30.34 in (1027.4 mb)
Dewpoint26°F (-3°C)
VisibilityNA

Last Update on 3 Nov 3:53 am EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

31 degrees in Florida, on November 3rd, gotta love it, my heater has been almost constantly running since 8 PM.
Mornin Jed...Wintertime goona be cold...:)
An absolute monster low not far from Alaska..919 MB is one of the lowest pressures I have seen for a non tropical entity....919 mb,s is 27.14 inches..Which is lower than Hurricane Andrew,s pressure at landfall.

The Euro has it at 922 MB,s

Quoting 266. hydrus:

Mornin Jed...Wintertime goona be cold...:)


Good morning, or goodnight? lol I haven't gone to bed yet, I'm becoming a temporary insomniac thanks to school lol.

This really is winter in Fall, normal temps return tomorrow, but I can't help but wonder how winter might turn out now. Although its to early to tell with one event, there are some signs such as model signals in the NAO that suggest the potential for a cold winter down here, we'll see. The grass is already going brown and the leaves are changing color here, which is earlier for both than typical.
Quoting hydrus:
The Euro has it at 922 MB,s



So the impact from this one gets to east coast in when 2 wks?
Quoting 267. hydrus:

An absolute monster low not far from Alaska..919 MB is one of the lowest pressures I have seen for a non tropical entity....919 mb,s is 27.14 inches..Which is lower than Hurricane Andrew,s pressure at landfall.




With that strong ridge to its west as well, in between there on the left side of the will be a large area of probably hurricane force wind gusts, the kind of thing that to me would be a nightmare, a brutal winter system in the far north while on a ship at sea.

RIP Alaskan coast.
Quoting 271. Jedkins01:



With that strong ridge to its west as well, in between there on the left side of the will be a large area of probably hurricane force wind gusts, the kind of thing that to me would be a nightmare, a brutal winter system in the far north while on a ship at sea.

RIP Alaskan coast.
I was wondering if that is Nuri...So to speak . :)
Quoting 269. Jedkins01:



Good morning, or goodnight? lol I haven't gone to bed yet, I'm becoming a temporary insomniac thanks to school lol.

This really is winter in Fall, normal temps return tomorrow, but I can't help but wonder how winter might turn out now. Although its to early to tell with one event, there are some signs such as model signals in the NAO that suggest the potential for a cold winter down here, we'll see. The grass is already going brown and the leaves are changing color here, which is earlier for both than typical.
There are more than a few signs that this will be a harsh winter for the eastern half of the U.S. I will not leave out the northern plains ( Dakotas and Montana region ) for they too will get blasted...Which is the norm for them. I am going to post a comment about certain conditions that indicate whats to come.
Quoting 270. lat25five:



So the impact from this one gets to east coast in when 2 wks?
Hello 25...May never reach the east coast.
Quoting hydrus:
Hello 25...May never reach the east coast.

Morning Hydrus
That would be a good thing...
looking foward to reading your thoughts on whats to come.
Im thinking may actually be using the fireplace more than once this year.

good night all .
Currently at my house in S. Miami:

Broken Clouds
60°F
Feels Like: 60°
Wind Chill: 60° Ceiling: 4900
Heat Index: 60° Visibility: 10mi
Dew Point: 48° Wind: 8mph
Humidity: 64% Direction: 330°NNW
Pressure: 30.23" Gusts: NA
Seems like this pattern has never really ended since last winter. Seems we had anomalous troughs during the summer as well.

Quoting 250. TimTheWxMan:



NOOOOOOOOO!!!
Morning all.

It's about 71 degrees here right now with some clouds, winds from the NNW to N at 10 - 15 mph. I actually need a jacket this a.m. ... talk about a change from this time last week! LOL

Have a great day, all .....
Hottest October on record in Australia as fire danger rises


Also clocking up record months for maximums were Western Australia and South Australia, helping to drive the country to its hottest October in records going back to 1911.

Nationally, maximums were 2.76 degrees above normal, eclipsing the 2.63-degree anomaly set in 1988, the bureau said. Victoria had its second hottest October, as did the Northern Territory.

Sydney posted its equal-sixth hottest October, with a cooler patch during the middle of the month in the wake of huge storms limiting the heat. Even so, the city's maximums, at 24.5 degrees, were 2.4 degrees above normal for October, the bureau said.


Read more: Link
282. MahFL
Who cares about the year 2100 ?, most of us will be dead.
Quoting 276. lat25five:


Morning Hydrus
That would be a good thing...
looking foward to reading your thoughts on whats to come.
Im thinking may actually be using the fireplace more than once this year.

good night all .



Probably a good idea to order a couple cords of firewood now then.

(We had a cash surplus last fall, found a good delivery price and got six cords of walnut. That plus one huge dying cottonwood and two large ones in need of serious trim means we're good for firewood for quite a while.)

Oh. Good morning. Up early, coffee is perked and ready. 23*F here in the Lahontan Valley, white dressing on the Stillwater range, and if this cold pattern plays out it'll be a replay of 1977/78 like I am expecting.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Late night blog update on Vance. Don't think it'll make it to major hurricane strength, unfortunately.

It's had a hard time clearing out its eye. Shame too, convection is deep enough for a Cat 4 if it would.

Looks like a change to a wetter pattern which is typical of El-Nino.

GFS 8 Day precip accum
286. MahFL
Quoting 285. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like a change to a wetter pattern which is typical of El-Nino.


What about California ?
Quoting 282. MahFL:

Who cares about the year 2100 ?, most of us will be dead.


I sincerely hope you are joking, if not, this is one of the most selfish things posted here.
288. MahFL
Quoting 287. Naga5000:



I sincerely hope you are joking, if not, this is one of the most selfish things posted here.


Nope, not joking at all.
Quoting 286. MahFL:


What about California ?


Well California just had a system roll thru over the weekend dropping some much needed rain across the whole state. California should turn very wet as well come the 3rd week of November if the ensembles pan out by the GFS & Euro.
I'm hoping we don't have World War III any time in the near future.
History proves we can't go very long without major conficts around the World.
Nothing will be done to seriously deal with climate change until there is political will towards the matter. One random person lowering their carbon footprint does nothing when entire nations are spewing emissions without any sign of letting up. Sadly, since our elected officials are worthless, I don't see much change occurring. These doomsday reports really do nothing since they don't offer a feasible solution to solve the problem.
By the looks of this El-Nino is here and has been for several weeks now. So question now is how strong and how long does El-Nino last as many models are trending toward moderate to even strong El-Nino come next Spring into Summer.

From the Miami NWS Disco...

A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD IS IN QUESTION AS MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DOSE OF DRY AND MILD AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND NOW STALLS THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE DEVELOPING A LOW ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP THE AREA IN A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TRANSPIRES.
NBC-2 meteorologist (Fort Myers. Fl.) not impressed by the next cold front.
"This weekend will be a little bit cooler."

We'll see if that changes as the week goes on. But until then, great weather continues for another week.
Wow! Looks another Arctic Outbreak is coming for the eastern US. We can thank Typhoon Nuri for this next dive in the AO.

Quoting 295. Sfloridacat5:

NBC-2 meteorologist not impressed by the next cold front.
"This weekend will be a little bit cooler."

We'll see if that changes as the week goes on. But until then, great weather continues for another week.



I'm loving this weather, but it's starting to get pretty dry. We could use some rain. I see the GFS has started trending towards more rain for central FL, so I'm hoping that actually pans out for once.
Good Morning
Quoting 291. tampabaymatt:

Nothing will be done to seriously deal with climate change until there is political will towards the matter. One random person lowering their carbon footprint does nothing when entire nations are spewing emissions without any sign of letting up. Sadly, since our elected officials are worthless, I don't see much change occurring. These doomsday reports really do nothing since they don't offer a feasible solution to solve the problem.


You had me until the end. The whole point of the IPCC is to synthesize science for policy makers. "These are the facts, these are the future scenarios, this is what needs to be done to prevent them, how you get there is up to you"

I personally believe scientists should take a more activist role in suggesting solutions, but there is a huge disagreement in just about every scientific discipline on if this is the proper role for a scientist to have. Besides that, policy suggestions are not one size fits all and will differ hugely nation to nation. We can't expect third world countries to abide by the same protocols as the western world, nor can we expect developing nations to comply as their own self interest is contradictory to limiting emissions as they attempt to gain a seat at the table.
Quoting 297. tampabaymatt:


I'm loving this weather, but it's starting to get pretty dry. We could use some rain. I see the GFS has started trending towards more rain for central FL, so I'm hoping that actually pans out for once.


Dry here too. We had some frost Saturday night here on the NW side of Orlando which caused some of my grass to brown in spots. I was actually surprised we got as cold as we did. 39 was the temp.
Quoting 299. Naga5000:



You had me until the end. The whole point of the IPCC is to synthesize science for policy makers. "These are the facts, these are the future scenarios, this is what needs to be done to prevent them, how you get there is up to you"

I personally believe scientists should take a more activist role in suggesting solutions, but there is a huge disagreement in just about every scientific discipline on if this is the proper role for a scientist to have. Besides that, policy suggestions are not one size fits all and will differ hugely nation to nation. We can't expect third world countries to abide by the same protocols as the western world, nor can we expect developing nations to comply as their own self interest is contradictory to limiting emissions as they attempt to gain a seat at the table.


I think we've hit the point where scientists have done all they can do on this. If you're not going to believe in human-caused climate change right now, you probably never will. I'm just tired of seeing report after report saying the same thing. We need reports suggesting actual solutions.
This will sound extremely blunt, but I suspect that even when runaway climate change cause, mass rioting, migration and starvation, still nothing will be done, because at that point human societies ability to make meaningfull impact will have gone by the wayside. Climate change will level off when enough humans die off to lower carbon emissions by default rather than through action.

The IPCC report is basically the worlds scientists getting down on their knees and begging the worlds population to take the proverbial gun away from our head. Right now we are three quarters of the way through squeezing the trigger....
Quoting 301. tampabaymatt:



I think we've hit the point where scientists have done all they can do on this. If you're not going to believe in human-caused climate change right now, you probably never will. I'm just tired of seeing report after report saying the same thing. We need reports suggesting actual solutions.


What we are seeing from countries is reports on how to mitigate damage, not solve. Maybe that's a peek into the mindset of those who are in power?
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I'm loving this weather, but it's starting to get pretty dry. We could use some rain. I see the GFS has started trending towards more rain for central FL, so I'm hoping that actually pans out for once.


Very dry here. We have areas with less than a half inch of rain in 5 weeks.
It's only rained 3 times in 5 weeks at the house with just over 1" of rain.

If you don't have an automatic sprinkler watering your grass twice a week, the grass is already dried up and brown.
Quoting 305. yoboi:



Where is the money going to come from????? We are 20 trillion in debt.............


When there is no food, no water, no power, no shelter and you are reduced to living on whatever you can catch and eat, where are you going to spend all the money you have saved?
Lots of moisture going into Texas the next 5 days. FL stays dry, it actually feels like fall at the moment. No complaints here!
The next two weeks the pattern seems the same for the southeast. Cool and dry.



Quoting 307. WxGuy2014:
Lots of moisture going into Texas the next 5 days. FL stays dry, it actually feels like fall at the moment. No complaints here!


Your crow is cooking this morning. Just in case you missed it most of South Carolina got snow on Saturday infact heavy in some cased. Earliest snow ever recorded in Columbia.
I75 and Daniels Parkway in Fort Myers. Exit off I75 I take to the house.

You can see how the unwatered grass is brown or already dead in the areas getting roasted by the daily sunshine.


Quoting 291. tampabaymatt:

Nothing will be done to seriously deal with climate change until there is political will towards the matter. One random person lowering their carbon footprint does nothing when entire nations are spewing emissions without any sign of letting up. Sadly, since our elected officials are worthless, I don't see much change occurring. These doomsday reports really do nothing since they don't offer a feasible solution to solve the problem.
Sadly, while most of the US feels this way, not much will be done. The political will is the will of the people -- "let the government do it" is telling the world "I don't want it to happen" since the government is chosen by the people. By the time "the people" get the message that they have to DO something it will be too late to have much effect. And while the Floridians, and many others, feel it doesn't matter since we'll all be dead anyway, our descendants will be stuck with our discarded world.
Quoting 308. WxGuy2014:
The next two weeks the pattern seems the same for the southeast. Cool and dry.





Well see about that just like the warm November they expect huh?



313. yoboi
Quoting 306. tlawson48:



When there is no food, no water, no power, no shelter and you are reduced to living on whatever you can catch and eat, where are you going to spend all the money you have saved?



If we are ever forced to pay our debt.. trust me climate change will fall further down the list of what people are concerned about..........
Basically everyone east of the Rockies is in for a cooler than average Winter. I have hammering this home for several months that this Winter may rival that of 1976/1977.

It seems as every few days on the GFS & Euro they have system diving SE driving cold air south.

Here's the Euro ensembles

Quoting 305. yoboi:




Where is the money going to come from????? We are 20 trillion in debt.............



The long term benefit outweighs the short term cost. The debt is first, not as big of a deal as you make it out to be Link, and it currently sits at 17.7 trillion, not 20. But hey, what's 2.3 trillion when you're fear mongering, right?

Remember "U.S. debt is, to a large extent, money we owe to ourselves."

Edit: Every single country in the world, save a few extremely rich authoritarian oil holding nations, is in debt. Debt isn't like a mortgage, debt is a direct product of the structure of international/intranational banking, money lending, and borrowing.
"Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you
Is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'"



Don't criticize what you can't understand. ;)
Quoting 313. yoboi:



If we are ever forced to pay our debt.. trust me climate change will fall further down the list of what people are concerned about..........


So basically you are saying that people will pay off their debt so they can be guaranteed that they will die a miserable drawn out death in a world where organized society no longer exists? I'll go get my checkbook....
This is a classic set up for cold weather to keep pouring into the Central & Eastern US for the month of November. Anybody putting out a forecast for a warm November for the Eastern 2/3rds better go back to the drawing board.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Your crow is cooking this morning. Just in case you missed it most of South Carolina got snow on Saturday infact heavy in some cased. Earliest snow ever recorded in Columbia.


I said it wasnt in any of the offical NWS forecasts at that time, which it wasnt. It did pan out though for that small area that got the snow. Pretty incredible event.
I guess its time to take all my weather post to my blog as GW debate is going strong this AM
Quoting 299. Naga5000:

I personally believe scientists should take a more activist role in suggesting solutions.


I think there's pretty broad agreement that a carbon tax would be both effective and predictable (businesses need predictability).
- Levy tax at the mine or the well-head,
- Tax (net) carbon imports, rebate carbon exports at import terminals (at least with non-carbon-taxing countries).
- Distribute the proceeds per capita, so that lower income populations are not unduly burdened.

The carbon tax in British Columbia is a great example of how it should be done; it has reduced emissions and has not hurt the economy, and unlike the RGGI or European trading schemes, provides a meaningful, escalating price, and cost predictability.
By the way, for those of you who seem to be hung up on how much saving the planet seems to cost, I'll clue you into a little secret: The planet doesn't use currency in any form. It realy doesn't care how in debt you are and that you simply can't afford it right now. Either you play by it's rules and possibly survive or you fight it and lose miserably.
Quoting 322. NatPearre:



I think there's pretty broad agreement that a carbon tax would be both effective and predictable (businesses need predictability).
- Levy tax at the mine or the well-head,
- Tax (net) carbon imports, rebate carbon exports at import terminals (at least with non-carbon-taxing countries).
- Distribute the proceeds per capita, so that lower income populations are not unduly burdened.

The carbon tax in British Columbia is a great example of how it should be done; it has reduced emissions and has not hurt the economy, and unlike the RGGI or European trading schemes, provides a meaningful, escalating price, and cost predictability.


I'm not sold on a carbon tax, but I do see where it is useful and how it provides stability. Of course the bigger issue is that it is in direct contradiction to the small government, less regulation, no taxation ideology.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Well see about that just like the warm November they expect huh?





I tend to go with the experts, Scott. Sorry to burst your bubble but posting models 384 hours out and then saying you said it would happen doesnt make you a forecaster lol. But congrats on getting 1 out of 10 right. Pretty good record lol.
Quoting 320. WxGuy2014:



I said it wasnt in any of the offical NWS forecasts at that time, which it wasnt. It did pan out though for that small area that got the snow. Pretty incredible event.


Just busting your chops a little. All in fun though. Heck I have had my share of crow this year especially with El-Nino coming later than forecast.
Quoting 325. WxGuy2014:



I tend to go with the experts, Scott. Sorry to burst your bubble but posting models 384 hours out and then saying you said it would happen doesnt make you a forecaster lol. But congrats on getting 1 our of 10 right. Pretty good record lol.


Not saying it will happen but look at this pattern. These same experts busted big time this weekend. Never seen such a big bust from the so called experts as i saw this weekend with temp anomalies well below average when they above average temps for last weekend a week ago. Models are trending cooler than average for November and that's a fact whether some believe it or not.
I never brought the warm November because the pattern seem to he similar to last year.Meh but I'm always wrong...
Miserable weather in Sarasota. We are getting a few stone crabs though. We also got some stolen . Missing three traps. Happens every year when the northerners arrive.
331. yoboi
Is the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change right that, on current fossil use 'projectories', we are heading for a global warming of four or five degrees by century's end?


Link

Look forward to the final vote tally......
The IPCC report of which Dr. Masters wrote is definitely clear and concise, and very alarming. It suffers from one serious flaw, however:

It's far too conservative.

"According to a number of scientific critics, the scientific consensus represented by the IPCC is a very conservative consensus. IPCC's reports, they say, often underestimate the severity of global warming, in a way that may actually confuse policymakers (or worse). The IPCC, one scientific group charged last year, has a tendency to "err on the side of least drama." And now, in a new study just out in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, another group of researchers echoes that point. In scientific parlance, they charge that the IPCC is focused on avoiding what are called "type 1" errors -- claiming something is happening when it really is not (a "false positive") -- rather than on avoiding "type 2" errors -- not claiming something is happening when it really is (a "false negative").

"The consequence is that we do not always hear directly from the IPCC about how bad things could be."

Read the whole piece here.

The bottom line: anyone who tells you the IPCC is "alarmist" is talking complete nonsense.
I have to put in my 2 cents worth... Ultimately I believe there is little that we can do to change the future in regards to climate change. We can try hard and certain countries (hopefully the US included) will be able to make great strides with decreasing our negative contributions to global warming, thus delaying the inevitable, however in the end I think the outcome will be the same.
No matter how bad we make it for this earth though, I don't think for a second that we will destroy her. We will destroy human kind first. The Earth will be able to survive and prosper long after we as a human race finish wreaking havoc on her. Once we are gone the Earth will be able to flush out the bad and start over with new life.
Of course, all of this will happen way, way, WAAAAAAY after we and multiple generations after us have died naturally.
Quoting 331. yoboi:

Is the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change right that, on current fossil use 'projectories', we are heading for a global warming of four or five degrees by century's end?


Link

Look forward to the final vote tally......


There have been extensive polls on public opinion of science and climate science, done with proper methodology. If you are trying to claim the public is mistrustful of scientists or simply does not believe the scientists, it doesn't take an on-line opinion poll from Australia to tell you that.

Overall, what the people who listen to that particular radio show think and visit that particular website, or others linking to it which I am sure includes the science denial blogosphere , has little relevance to the work of the IPCC and all the scientists. Public opinion is just that. It doesn't require requisite knowledge or understanding of the material.
Quoting 324. Naga5000:



I'm not sold on a carbon tax, but I do see where it is useful and how it provides stability. Of course the bigger issue is that it is in direct contradiction to the small government, less regulation, no taxation ideology.


I think we have plenty of funds that could be used much, much more wisely generated from our 52 trillion dollar economy other than a new tax. It's going to be a fine balancing act promoting business venture while trying to curb emissions simultaneously. We can't collapse our economy in the mean time. Although, that'd likely be a better alternative in the long run. What we need to do, imo, is fix our current tax code, eliminate unnecessary tax spending, loopholes, subsidies, etc. There's a lot that can be done without doing much to increase revenue, unfortunately our legislators do even less. Fixing our infrastructure and especially modernizing our grid would be a big step too that would also spur growth while helping to reduce power needs, but we've seen how that's gone when the idea gets floated around. What do you think the profit potential is from solar/wind/hydro, etc compared to petroleum? ;) Yeah. This is going to be an interesting next 50 years and I suppose I'll be along for the ride. Oh, we could also get rid of Citizens United and perhaps our politicians would listen to peoples' concerns and not corporate concerns. Corporations are not people lol. Seems we're slowly becoming akin to Russia's "capitalist" economy.
Quoting 332. Neapolitan:
The IPCC report of which Dr. Masters wrote is definitely clear and concise, and very alarming. It suffers from one serious flaw, however:

It's far too conservative.

"According to a number of scientific critics, the scientific consensus represented by the IPCC is a very conservative consensus. IPCC's reports, they say, often underestimate the severity of global warming, in a way that may actually confuse policymakers (or worse). The IPCC, one scientific group charged last year, has a tendency to "err on the side of least drama." And now, in a new study just out in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, another group of researchers echoes that point. In scientific parlance, they charge that the IPCC is focused on avoiding what are called "type 1" errors -- claiming something is happening when it really is not (a "false positive") -- rather than on avoiding "type 2" errors -- not claiming something is happening when it really is (a "false negative").

"The consequence is that we do not always hear directly from the IPCC about how bad things could be."

Read the whole piece here.

The bottom line: anyone who tells you the IPCC is "alarmist" is talking complete nonsense.


The gist of this can be summed up by just about any Dilbert cartoon: when putting together a report for the CEO, make sure you make it stupid enough so they can understand it.
Quoting 322. NatPearre:



I think there's pretty broad agreement that a carbon tax would be both effective and predictable (businesses need predictability).
- Levy tax at the mine or the well-head,
- Tax (net) carbon imports, rebate carbon exports at import terminals (at least with non-carbon-taxing countries).
- Distribute the proceeds per capita, so that lower income populations are not unduly burdened.

The carbon tax in British Columbia is a great example of how it should be done; it has reduced emissions and has not hurt the economy, and unlike the RGGI or European trading schemes, provides a meaningful, escalating price, and cost predictability.


One thing I can say too that and it's important, the US isn't Canada and Americans aren't Canadians. Perhaps if we could get some unity between either side in Washington, we could accomplish something. All we're doing is becoming more and more polarized and pitted against one another. The talking heads are not helping.
This winter is going to be jamming!!!
Quoting 329. washingtonian115:

I never brought the warm November because the pattern seem to he similar to last year.Meh but I'm always wrong...
I have been thinking that since last Feb when looking ahead to this fall/winter.
This is what heavy snow looks like. Snowfall totals for the next 192 hours.
Areas off the chart with 50"+ by next Tuesday.

I am praying for a warm winter in the Eastern US, because a cold snowy one, while most likely a direct result of global warming, will only allow the denialists to run around acting like ignoramuses for the next six months and thus any intelligent talk about mitigating climate change will take a back seat.
Mr. Flavour will make sure.
Quoting 339. Climate175:

I have been thinking that since last Feb when looking ahead to this fall/winter.
The signs are there..its all about it falling into place at the right time.

Having the weather try to be a certain way to prove your agenda is...well..immature.
Quoting 343. washingtonian115:

The signs are there..its all about it falling into place at the right time.

Having the weather try to be a certain way to prove your agenda is...well..immature.
Nature is gonna do what it wants and a'int nobody stoping it.
345. MAstu
Quoting 314. StormTrackerScott:

Basically everyone east of the Rockies is in for a cooler than average Winter. I have hammering this home for several months that this Winter may rival that of 1976/1977.

It seems as every few days on the GFS & Euro they have system diving SE driving cold air south.


You also hammered home a super el-nino for months.
So whom is going to distribute this carbon tax money - the US government that is 17 trillion in debt now?
Cant roll out an insurance website, but are going to save the world from man made global warming?
POPPYCOCK!
For those who are interested, Storm chaser Jim Leonard passed away today around 7:30 am in West Palm Beach. He was 64.
Quoting 346. SkulDouggery:

So whom is going to distribute this carbon tax money - the US government that is 17 trillion in debt now?
Cant roll out an insurance website, but are going to save the world from man made global warming?
POPPYCOCK!


I know right, 200+ years of democracy and government, and countless government programs which brought us roads and highways, drinkable water, and provided for societal stability through countless other programs. Those guys can't do anything right. Let's tear down the capitol and the state buildings. Anarchy! ViVA LA REVOLUCION!
349. MAstu
Instead of a carbon tax we could give tax credits for wind and soiar. It amounts to the same thing, but might be more palatable because people like tax credits and hate taxes. We could also spend a lot more money on scientific research. Maybe by a factor of 10. Then hopefully more people would become scientists and more people would understand science. Also, while I don't think we should count on it, there could be a technology solution out there somewhere.
Post# 347, that's sad news.
352. MahFL
Quoting 309. StormTrackerScott:



Just in case you missed it most of South Carolina got snow on Saturday infact heavy in some cased. Earliest snow ever recorded in Columbia.


Scott, the facts state that most of SC did NOT get any snow. It was only near the center of the upper low, for a few hours.



#351 Oh cool a greenhouse effect denier coupled with conspiracy theory nonsense.

Two microwave passes from 10z and 12z respectively show quite a big difference in the internal structure of Vance. It looks like dry air got entrained into the circulation overnight but is quickly being mixed out.




The outline of the eye is still evident on infrared imagery, but it's cloud-filled. We'll see if it clears over the coming hours. If Vance wants to become a major hurricane, it needs to do it soon.

Quoting 351. TampaWeatherBuff:
Considering the historical data does not support the alleged leading indicator link between CO2 and warming temperatures, a matter of some considerable puzzlement to the climate sorcerers and soothsayers behind the dire computer models that have been largely invalidated by recent empirical evidence, this sounds to me like more of the same FUD designed to loosen the seams of gullible wallets and create a demand for another Soviet-style civic priesthood where "experts" tell us rubes when and how to live.

"Climate Change" -- branded thus when it was obvious that the globe wasn't actually warming in the manner foretold by the prophets -- is the ultimate "heads I win, tails you lose" rhetorical coup. Whether hotter or colder, they can say "See, we told you so!" and it puts scientists who don't believe the CO2 True Religion in the strange position of sounding like they don't believe the climate ever changes, which of course isn't the point.

The point is that they want everyone to believe that we can legislate our way to endless (their favorite word is "sustainable") climate stability by trusting them to regulate our use of the single most important component of our economic activity in the civilized world: coal. CO2 was, of all the gases that are part of our complex climate system, the only one it turns out they could convince enough people it was within our reach to control. I mean, you can't very well stick a cork in the arse of every cow and block methane, now can you? But it turns out CO2 is among the least consequential, so dramatic rises in its content in our atmosphere were not met with the predicted commensurate rise in global temperatures. Rather than recognize the fundamental failure of their model, they resort to FUD like "we've blown our CO2 budget already!"

I'd be much more impressed if these people were equally concerned with our actual fiscal budgets, which really have been blown beyond any sustainable accounting model, and really will severely damage the quality of life for future generations, starting with this one, when the crushing debt and endless fiat money causes a general systemic collapse. Just in time for the next Ice Age... Ahem.


Lets put this in perspective, debt is like a house fire, left unchecked it will eventually burn the house down and everyone one who lives there will be screwed. Climate change is like a lava flow coming down a mountain side, EVERYTHING in its path is screwed. If we can't live on this planet sustainably, there is no point in being debt free.
356. MAstu
Quoting 355. tlawson48:



Lets put this in perspective, debt is like a house fire, left unchecked it will eventually burn the house down and everyone one who lives there will be screwed. Climate change is like a lava flow coming down a mountain side, EVERYTHING in its path is screwed. If we can't live on this planet sustainably, there is no point in being debt free.
why exactly can we only do one or the other? The debt argument was a total non-sequitur in the first place.
Fresh stone crab $2.99/lb. Paypal accepted.

Also 3 stone crab traps in good condition for sale. Please reply to yankee@yummystolenstonecrab.gov


Quoting 330. Pallis1:

Miserable weather in Sarasota. We are getting a few stone crabs though. We also got some stolen . Missing three traps. Happens every year when the northerners arrive.
CPC has released their weekly ENSO report......3.4 region came in at 0.6C above average for last week.....this means that the last nine weeks has averaged at el nino values
Quoting 347. HurriHistory:

For those who are interested, Storm chaser Jim Leonard passed away today around 7:30 am in West Palm Beach. He was 64.
That really hits home :(.I.remember first watching his storm videos 20 something odd years ago on the typhoons on discovery channel and TM(ARKET)C.That's what sparked my interest in weather.Modern storm chasers can thank him.He followed me on Facebook as well.He will be missed dearly.
Quoting 356. MAstu:
why exactly can we only do one or the other? The debt argument was a total non-sequitur in the first place.


We can do both. We NEED to deal with climate change before we deal with debt. The whole point of the IPCC's report is that climate change must be dealt with NOW. As in, not tomorrow, or next year, but right now, today. If we dither for twenty years to fix the debt problem while ignoring climate change, it is too late.

I have seen the debt argument every single time the cost of meaningful climate change comes up. The argument is pointless. You cannot put a price on survival of the human species. I'm sure whatever that is left of humanity several hundred years from now will look on us as extremely selfish because we couldn't make a difficult decision when we had the chance.
362. MAstu
Quoting 359. ricderr:

CPC has released their weekly ENSO report......3.4 region came in at 0.6C above average for last week.....this means that the last nine weeks has averaged at el nino values
Quoting 358. yoboi:


We didn't start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world's been turning
We didn't start the fire
But when we are gone
It will still burn on and on and on and on
And on and on and on and on...

We didn't start the fire
It was always burning
Since the world's been turning
We didn't start the fire
No we didn't light it
But we tried to fight it

-Billy Joel-



Very true, very true. Lets try and damp the flames down a little bit, so we can live on this planet for a little longer....
CPC 11/3/14 update: Nino 3.4 up to +0.6C. El-Nino is here folks. Finally!
Does someone have a chart showing most of South Carolina getting snow and the totals? While it truly was a remarkable event, I believe it was located in a relatively small area in and around the Columbia area.


Edit: Just saw the post and certainly most of the state did not get snow.
Arguing that the climate isn't changing because our national debt is too high is as insanely, stupendously, idiotically stupid silly as telling your oncologist that you can't possibly have cancer because there's only $100 in your checking account.
Quoting 359. ricderr:

CPC has released their weekly ENSO report......3.4 region came in at 0.6C above average for last week.....this means that the last nine weeks has averaged at el nino values


It should be declared soon. Right now it looks to be a weak to maybe moderate El Nino. Now the question is once it is declared, how long will it last?
368. MAstu
Quoting 361. tlawson48:



We can do both. We NEED to deal with climate change before we deal with debt. The whole point of the IPCC's report is that climate change must be dealt with NOW. As in, not tomorrow, or next year, but right now, today. If we dither for twenty years to fix the debt problem while ignoring climate change, it is too late.

I have seen the debt argument every single time the cost of meaningful climate change comes up. The argument is pointless. You cannot put a price on survival of the human species. I'm sure whatever that is left of humanity several hundred years from now will look on us as extremely selfish because we couldn't make a difficult decision when we had the chance.
at some point we won't be able to borrow money so it's not like we can ignore the debt indefinitely.
Quoting 340. Sfloridacat5:
This is what heavy snow looks like. Snowfall totals for the next 192 hours.
Areas off the chart with 50"+ by next Tuesday.



Forecast discussion out of Anchorage indicates that they are quite nervous about the extended forecast with winds well in excess of hurricane force with the incoming storm later this week.
Quoting 364. StormTrackerScott:

CPC 11/3/14 update: Nino 3.4 up to +0.6C. El-Nino is here folks. Finally!



EL nino is not here

Tropical Pacific warm, but remains neutral


Link


372. MAstu
Quoting 369. tlawson48:



Forecast discussion out of Anchorage indicates that they are quite nervous about the extended forecast with winds well in excess of hurricane force with the incoming storm later this week.
that's crazy. Anyone know what the experts are predicting for Alaska this winter? Another warm one?
Quoting 368. MAstu:
at some point we won't be able to borrow money so it's not like we can ignore the debt indefinitely.


At some point? When exactly is that point? How about we stop worrying about money, which by the way, only humans worry about (and has only been around for about 3,500 years). The money argument has to go away. Himans will need to make tremendous sacrifices, like spending ALL of their GDP on mitigating climate change if we are to survive as a species. We have a system that is completely unstainable, interms of how we do buisness, how we consume energy, how we interact with the planet, everything. If we come out the other side of this even sorta-kinda intact, society will be unrecognizable to what it is today.
atlantic gfs is playing around a bit. season might not be over
375. MAstu
Quoting 370. yoboi:




I think most agree that the climate has ALWAYS been changing.....BUT sinking trillions of dollars and adding more money to the debt with maybe's, if's, might, could, is very irresponsible......No????????
uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction. Most decisions are made based on if's, might, and could. On the other hand, if we're spending trillions when we have absolutely no idea what will happen, then I would say that's irresponsible. I'm still not completely sold on CO2 being the main driver of warming, but I think it's likely enough that we should cut emissions.
Quoting 372. MAstu:
that's crazy. Anyone know what the experts are predicting for Alaska this winter? Another warm one?


Hard to say. The snowpack over Asia is extremely high for this early in the year. The PNA is not in the same pattern as it was last fall. AO and NAO a generaly negative this fall, last fall the NAO at least was positive. What conclusions have the experts drawn from this? Lots, and they all contradict each other.
Quoting 367. luvtogolf:



It should be declared soon. Right now it looks to be a weak to maybe moderate El Nino. Now the question is once it is declared, how long will it last?
The official summary:

1) ENSO-neutral conditions continue.

2) Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

3) El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

IOW, there's no El Niño yet, though a weak event is expected to start between now and New Year's Day and last for 3-4 months.
Older chart, but still relevant:



The grand majority of debt is owed to ourselves, only about 1/4 belongs to other countries.

Now, in the global context, to think that foreign countries that rely on the functionality of the global economy to prop up their own would suddenly want to be paid back (which they really can't do anyways, due to the types of bonds and securities they purchase) causing a global financial crisis and thereby causing a ripple effect throughout the global economy thereby trashing their own economic livelihood, is just crazy talk.

The debt is a moot point in terms of the action that needs to be taken on climate.

Quoting 378. Naga5000:
Older chart, but still relevant:





The debt is a moot point in terms of the action that needs to be taken on climate.



How to convince people of that? This mornings blog traffic has indicated that this is a very hard sell.
Well, like I said last night, Vance had pretty much peaked but has a small window to make it to at least a Cat 3. It looks like it will be moving into extremely high shear soon, which would weaken it further.





It should be declared soon. Right now it looks to be a weak to maybe moderate El Nino. Now the question is once it is declared, how long will it last?

as long as the pacific stays warm...yes..typically it's a three month average for declaration..
Heavier snow pic central South Carolina Nov.1, 2014.
I think the NWS under-represented some areas with only 1-2" totals.

This pic clearly shows more than 2" on the grill and porch railing.



Quoting 381. yoboi:



I am all for a clean environment....I actually believe the science that shows humans can impact the climate by 10%......What I don't understand is that the people are saying they are concerned about their children and grandchildren future are not worried about the MASSIVE debt that they are passing along to them.....


I do feel horrible about the debt I am passing on. I truly believe that the climate disaster I am passing on is much worse.
I pretty much feel horrible about all the crap I am passing on: Climate change, debt, crumbling infrastructure, ineffective education system, extremely polarized political system, widening disparity in welath distribution, etc.
386. MAstu
Quoting 381. yoboi:




I am all for a clean environment....I actually believe the science that shows humans can impact the climate by 10%......What I don't understand is that the people are saying they are concerned about their children and grandchildren future are not worried about the MASSIVE debt that they are passing along to them.....
if we care so much about future generations we could always get rid of social security and medicare. Boom, balanced budget. My impression is that older people in the US don't believe in global warming though so at least they're consistent.
387. yoboi
Quoting 378. Naga5000:

Older chart, but still relevant:



The grand majority of debt is owed to ourselves, only about 1/4 belongs to other countries.

Now, in the global context, to think that foreign countries that rely on the functionality of the global economy to prop up their own would suddenly want to be paid back (which they really can't do anyways, due to the types of bonds and securities they purchase) causing a global financial crisis and thereby causing a ripple effect throughout the global economy thereby trashing their own economic livelihood, is just crazy talk.

The debt is a moot point in terms of the action that needs to be taken on climate.






Naga debt is debt.....No matter how you slice up that pie.......
Quoting 379. tlawson48:



How to convince people of that? This mornings blog traffic has indicated that this is a very hard sell.


Communicating complex subjects to the general public is probably the most difficult task scientists have to do. Add in the mixed messages and simplified scare tactics, fear mongering, and misrepresentations of the media where most people get their information, only makes it harder.

The problems we face are very complex. Everything is interwoven in politics, economics, and communication on a global scale.
Because of the power outages who thinks the name Andrew should be retired?
Quoting 387. yoboi:





Naga debt is debt.....No matter how you slice up that pie.......


The entire system is based on debt, Yoboi. Screaming about it now when the research shows the benefits of short term spending will far outweigh the long term increases in debt, is just silly.

I sure hope the future generations figure out how to eat and drink money by your logic...
Quoting 380. Grothar:

Well, like I said last night, Vance had pretty much peaked but has a small window to make it to at least a Cat 3. It looks like it will be moving into extremely high shear soon, which would weaken it further.






394. dnamj
Well, it was totally worth spending all that carbon budget to achieve world peace, eliminate disease and poverty, and explore the galaxy. Oh wait, we didn't do any of that?

We just made Sam Walton's kids, and the House of Saud very very very wealthy? That's not really worth it.
Quoting 377. Neapolitan:

The official summary:

1) ENSO-neutral conditions continue.

2) Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

3) El Nio is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

IOW, there's no El Nio yet, though a weak event is expected to start between now and New Year's Day and last for 3-4 months.


Last 3 or 4 months? well damm I may need to get more crow ready for you as models call it lasting thru Summer 2015 atleast. Question now is how strong for next summer as the CFSv2 is trending strong. Notice the warm pool the CFS is predicting in the Spring.


Quoting Neapolitan:
The official summary:

1) ENSO-neutral conditions continue.

2) Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

3) El Ni%uFFFDs favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

IOW, there's no El Ni%uFFFDet, though a weak event is expected to start between now and New Year's Day and last for 3-4 months.


A weak event that lasts 3-4 months. That doesn't sound too bad.
Quoting tlawson48:


Forecast discussion out of Anchorage indicates that they are quite nervous about the extended forecast with winds well in excess of hurricane force with the incoming storm later this week.



27 Miles SSW Port Alice AK
Forecast for coastal location in southern Panhandle region.

Wednesday Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 47. East wind 30 to 40 mph increasing to 45 to 55 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.



High Wind Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
525 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014


AKZ023-026>028-040100-
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.A.0003.141104T0300Z-141104T1500Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...M ETLAKATLA
525 AM AKST MON NOV 3 2014

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

A VIGOROUS STORM APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
WILL POTENTIALLY BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

TAKE THE TIME TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND AIRCRAFT.

BE PREPARED IN CASE THERE IS A LOSS OF POWER.

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
Quoting 386. MAstu:

if we care so much about future generations we could always get rid of social security and medicare. Boom, balanced budget. My impression is that older people in the US don't believe in global warming though so at least they're consistent.


The surgical precision of a sledge hammer. :)
Quoting 377. Neapolitan:

The official summary:

1) ENSO-neutral conditions continue.

2) Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

3) El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

IOW, there's no El Niño yet, though a weak event is expected to start between now and New Year's Day and last for 3-4 months.


Let's hope the is an El Nino because that typically means more rain for us here in Florida during the winter.
Beginning of an active pattern..


401. MAstu
OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?
Quoting 395. StormTrackerScott:



Last 3 or 4 months well damm I may need to get more crow ready for you as models call it lasting thru Summer 2015 atleast. Question now is how strong for next summer as the CFSv2 is trending strong.



your the one thats going too need crow the CFSv2 is likey going too be wrong
Quoting 399. yoboi:





Well I am headed to the grocery store and not going to bring any money and see what I can get using your logic.....I will let you know how it works out.......


Let me know how it works when there are no groceries or the only ones there are above your ability to afford them. Then get back to me. I hear dollar bills provide 10 calories, but taste horrible.
Quoting 402. Tazmanian:




your the one thats going too need crow the CFSv2 is likey going too be wrong


It may be in intensity but the trend is this El-Nino will last possibly thru 2015
Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?


Fresh water shortages and the resulting geosocietal destabilization based on access and availability. We are running out of fresh water very quickly.
your the one thats going too need crow the CFSv2 is likey going too be wrong


mr taz...your comments this morning show that you have truly been studying el nino......congrats
Quoting 401. MAstu:
OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?


Sea level rise that is too fast to adapt to. As over ninety percent of the worlds commerce flows on the backs of ships, rising sea level would quickly wipe out the worlds seaports and thus the ability to have a global economy.
Because of historic snow and power outages, Andrew will be retired. 4 choices: Alex, Ash, Aaron, America.
409. yoboi
Quoting 403. Naga5000:



Let me know how it works when there are no groceries or the only ones there are above your ability to afford them. Then get back to me. I hear dollar bills provide 10 calories, but taste horrible.



I agree with you naga.....most people don't understand where there food comes from.....I wish more people would learn how to grow there own food... have heard many stories from the great depression and most survived using a barter system....Today I don't see that working...too many people are selfish......
Quoting 409. yoboi:



I agree with you naga.....most people don't understand where there food comes from.....I wish more people would learn how to grow there own food... have heard many stories from the great depression and most survived using a barter system....Today I don't see that working...too many people are selfish......


My father in-law has a big enough garden and greenhouse where he could most likely feed himself for the whole year if needed. The guy can grow organic onions bigger than softballs by the hundreds!
Quoting 403. Naga5000:



Let me know how it works when there are no groceries or the only ones there are above your ability to afford them. Then get back to me. I hear dollar bills provide 10 calories, but taste horrible.


Maybe that's where the saying, "Put your money where you mouth is" came from. :)
Quoting 385. tlawson48:

I pretty much feel horrible about all the crap I am passing on: Climate change, debt, crumbling infrastructure, ineffective education system, extremely polarized political system, widening disparity in wealth distribution, etc.
This post explains the truth so well in just 2 sentences..many pluses..
Quoting 355. tlawson48:



Lets put this in perspective, debt is like a house fire, left unchecked it will eventually burn the house down and everyone one who lives there will be screwed. Climate change is like a lava flow coming down a mountain side, EVERYTHING in its path is screwed. If we can't live on this planet sustainably, there is no point in being debt free.


I'm all for keeping perspective. Budgets we actually can control. Lava flowing downhill, not so much. The truth is the soothsayers of climate doom have demonstrated no particular skill forecasting, much less controlling, the climate.

The complexity of real climatology as a science is mind-boggling, and reducing it all to politically sexy metaphors like CO2 "budgets" and the urgent need for everyone to hand over their wallets and their liberty to the same people who brought us TARP and ACA on the bona fides that this will fix everything is pure snake oil. The last thing I would do to fix a climate problem is to trust politicians with its correction, especially when that trust involves giving them more power over my finance and my freedom.

The demonization of any dissenting voice in the world of climate science is even more troubling. It's like a kind of McCarthyism has taken over what used to be a debate whose very integrity relied on show-me skepticism and vigorous and free dissent. "The debate is over" and "we must act now, no matter that our models have taken a big hit in the chin" is simply something no true scientist would ever say. These are the words of charlatans and professional pocket-pickers.
Quoting 414. TampaWeatherBuff:


I'm all for keeping perspective. Budgets we actually can control. Lava flowing downhill, not so much. The truth is the soothsayers of climate doom have demonstrated no particular skill forecasting, much less controlling, the climate.

The complexity of real climatology as a science is mind-boggling, and reducing it all to politically sexy metaphors like CO2 "budgets" and the urgent need for everyone to hand over their wallets and their liberty to the same people who brought us TARP and ACA on the bona fides that this will fix everything is pure snake oil. The last thing I would do to fix a climate problem is to trust politicians with its correction, especially when that trust involves giving them more power over my finance and my freedom.

The demonization of any dissenting voice in the world of climate science is even more troubling. It's like a kind of McCarthyism has taken over what used to be a debate whose very integrity relied on show-me skepticism and vigorous and free dissent. "The debate is over" and "we must act now, no matter that our models have taken a big hit in the chin" is simply something no true scientist would ever say. These are the words of charlatans and professional pocket-pickers.


The debate as to weather global warming is occuring has been over for years. The debate now is to how fast it is happening. There is plenty of healthy argument among climate scientists as to whether more severe effects will be felt sooner or later. The time to act is upon us. Do not wait to empty your house until the lava flow has surrounded it.
I really, really can't spell.... (or proof read). :)
417. MahFL
Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?


Even hotter in the Florida summer, which for me is a nightmare of sweat rashes etc etc.
418. MahFL
Quoting 411. tlawson48:



My father in-law has a big enough garden and greenhouse where he could most likely feed himself for the whole year if needed. The guy can grow organic onions bigger than softballs by the hundreds!


Does he have guns to stop people stealing his stuff ?
419. BDAwx
I think the concern was: how do you pay to make changes to the system when there literally is no money?

The argument is not "we can't afford to build more energy efficiently because it will increase our debt," but rather, "we can't afford to build more energy efficiently because we have no money."
Quoting 419. BDAwx:

I think the concern was: how do you pay to make changes to the system when there literally is no money?

The argument is not "we can't afford to build more energy efficiently because it will increase our debt," but rather, "we can't afford to build more energy efficiently because we have no money."


There's always money in the banana stand.
Quoting 395. StormTrackerScott:



Last 3 or 4 months? well damm I may need to get more crow ready for you as models call it lasting thru Summer 2015 atleast. Question now is how strong for next summer as the CFSv2 is trending strong. Notice the warm pool the CFS is predicting in the Spring.




The same model that called for a Super El Nino to begin by the summer and last through the end of 2014, and the same model that called for a sustained El Nino in 2012. We need an El Nino before we can start talking about its duration. Are the trends for one good? Yeah, but that doesn't mean they'll last. We saw that just a few months ago in the spring, when the record-breaking subsurface warm pool faded to nothing.
422. MahFL
Quoting 415. tlawson48:



The debate as to weather global warming is occuring has been over for years.


Many people deny it's occurring, or say it's a natural thing, and that there won't be many consequences anyway.
Hurricane VANCE
7:00 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2014
Location: 15.3°N 110.6°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph
Quoting 305. yoboi:


Where is the money going to come from????? We are 20 trillion in debt.............

As Dr. Masters points out if we act now the cost isn't that great.

"The cost of keeping global warming under the "dangerous" level of 2° C will only reduce "consumption growth" of the global economy by 0.06% per year if we start immediately and act strongly. Since consumption growth is expected to increase between 1.6% and 3% per year in the coming decades, we’re talking about annual growth that is, for example, 2% rather than 2.06%. This is a small price to pay to greatly decrease the risks of increased hunger, thirst, disease, refugees, and war that will result otherwise.
"


The longer we wait the more expensive it will get.


hurricane VANCE going to make landfall in five days
Quoting 415. tlawson48:



The debate as to weather global warming is occuring has been over for years. The debate now is to how fast it is happening. There is plenty of healthy argument among climate scientists as to whether more severe effects will be felt sooner or later. The time to act is upon us. Do not wait to empty your house until the lava flow has surrounded it.


It's precisely this sort of fear-mongering & alarmism that entices skeptics & lukewarmers alike...
Super Typhoon Nuri

Super Typhoon Nuri
Last Updated Nov 3, 2014 12 GMT
Location 19.8N 133.6E Movement NE
Wind 180 MPH
Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?


That when Florida is underwater, there will still be people that think it is not somewhat humanities fault scientifically, but spiritually.
If el nino is declared in December I highly doubt it'll last through the summer of 2015.I think if it dissipates by early spring could have something like 1998
Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?

My biggest fear is that our food production systems are so disrupted by the effects of global warming that we will no longer be able to feed everyone.
431. BDAwx
Quoting 420. Naga5000:



There's always money in the banana stand.

Right, but that idea is lost on the layperson who is used to a very different way of borrowing. This 'borrowing from ourselves' concept seems to be less understood by the general public and causes more confusion for them than climate science so the debt seems like a more timely concern as a result.
Quoting riverat544:

My biggest fear is that our food production systems are so disrupted by the effects of global warming that we will no longer be able to feed everyone.


Population decrease due to lack of available resourses. That day will surely happen some time in the future (how soon is the question?).
Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?
Eustatic rise in all the Earths oceans will be the number one killer, and force people out of there coastal dwellings. Tidal surge from even mediocre storms will cause much larger property losses and fatalities. Salt water intrusion will also be a factor..This is definite problem for future generations unless something on a global scale happens to counter act the current warming trend.
Quoting 429. washingtonian115:

If el nino is declared in December I highly doubt it'll last through the summer of 2015.I think if it dissipates by early spring could have something like 1998
Agree!





I think it's a good representation of where we are. Although today was a rather productive conversation.

We certainly see differing viewpoints even amongst the bloggers here that are pro AGW as to the main concerns. We certainly see the concerns regarding debt and the difficulty in communicating knowledge to the general public. There will always be those differences. The key is how to get everyone on at least the same page when it comes to preserving society and our future, with minimal impacts to ourselves and others. That's the extremely tricky part.

I am often an idealist when it comes to humanity, I really wish this could be a defining moment where everyone comes together for the good of the world and the future generations. I try not to be "alarmist" as is tossed around frequently, but I do believe if we don't stop and really put forth effort to make changes in how we live, there will be major negative consequences.
Quoting 433. hydrus:

Eustatic rise in all the Earths oceans will be the number one killer, and force people out of there coastal dwellings. Tidal surge from even mediocre storms will cause much larger property losses and fatalities. Salt water intrusion will also be a factor..This is definite problem for future generations unless something on a global scale happens to counter act the current warming trend.


I agree with you, the population flocking inland is a big deal. Many places especially countries in the tropics would have to clear more land for people to live and still have room to grow crops. That should contribute to a steady increase of co2 in the long run. A drought as bad as South America is seeing in that possible future situation would have serious implications.
Quoting 397. Naga5000:



The surgical precision of a sledge hammer. :)


I would start by ending all agricultural subsidies, especially paying farmers not to plant rice.
If el nino is declared in December I highly doubt it'll last through the summer of 2015.I think if it dissipates by early spring could have something like 1998


if the warm pool stays as it is...it will not be warm enough to sustain an el nino during the summer
440. MAstu
Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?
Mine is pathogens. Here is one example with cholera:

"In Bangladesh, cholera risk increases by two to four times in the six weeks following a 5-degree C (9-degree F) spike in the water temperature⁠. Likewise, in Ghana, an analysis of 20 years of data revealed a correlation between cholera incidence and rainfall and land surface temperatures. In Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, Mozambique, and Tanzania, cholera epidemics have been correlated with flooding as well as sea surface temperatures." Link

But there could be something more sinister. It could be as simple as a fungus getting introduced to a major food production area and killing the crops for a few years straight. Something like the potato famine. Or maybe ticks start breeding like crazy and a more sever strain of lyme disease comes out. There are a lot of possibilities that are hard to predict or prepare for.
Early Jan looks very stormy to me.
Quoting 414. TampaWeatherBuff:

The demonization of any dissenting voice in the world of climate science is even more troubling.

This, as any student of logic will immediately recognize, is what's commonly known as a straw man. Rather than throw out this silly accusation, then, would you care to provide credible evidence of this alleged "demonization"? Before you try, however, note that the bar for credibility is set high enough that, for instance, paranoid and illogiocal blog rants written by thoroughly debunked non-scientitsts and appearing on ideological websites won't count.

We;ll be waiting. Thanks in advance for your reasoned response...
Invest 95E

Invest 95E
Last Updated Nov 3, 2014 12 GMT
Location 10.0 100.9W Movement W
Wind 40 MPH

maybe a new T.D SOON
Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?


Probably the biggest problem will be civil unrest.
Already a vast number of people are on the move for many reason with probably 200,000 illegally entering Europe this year so far.
When the coastal areas become subject to flooding, then migration will be inevitable. All surrounding lands are already owned, so no chance of moving up the hill a bit.

Added to this will be coastal flooding with reduced food production for more people.
The tourist industry which supports millions could also be badly hit on the coasts, leading to poverty.

Difficult really to nail down just one factor with such a massive potential problem.
Record food production globally this year.You guys really need to get a life.Have a great day and enjoy the beautiful weather!

while your statement is true...it is totally out of context and as a result totally misleading

The world food production has increased substantially in the past century, as has calorie intake per capita. However, in spite of a decrease in the proportion of undernourished people, the absolute number has in fact increased during the current food crisis, to over 963 million. By 2050, population growth by an estimated 3 billion more people will increase food demand.
I wanna see Vance break a record of major hurricanes today.
Tell the Walton Family: Stop your hypocritical undercover campaign to destroy rooftop solar.

According to a new report, the Walton family, which owns Walmart, is working to radically undermine rooftop solar by promoting anti-solar state policies and donating millions of dollars to fossil fuel-backed front groups.

Walmart owns a majority stake in First Solar, a Malaysian manufacturing company that produces panels for commercial and for large utility scale type solar grid. They are betting & trying to force residential panel producers out by making it not feasible through laws.

Their strategy is already working in Arizona, where residential solar installations dropped 40% after Walton family-supported fees were introduced, leading to unprecedented job losses in Arizona’s solar industry.

Not satisfied with a single state, the Waltons have also given millions to pro-fossil fuel groups like the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and the Koch brothers front group, Americans for Prosperity, to fund similar anti-clean energy policies across the country.


Walmart claims that it “envisions a world where people do not have to choose between electricity they can afford and renewable electricity that is good for communities and the planet,” but it is working against that vision by attacking an increasingly popular way for American families to access solar power.3 A public campaign will discredit Walmart's carefully cultivated greenwashing campaign, and get the Walton family’s attention by calling out their hypocrisy.

Quoting 373. tlawson48:



At some point? When exactly is that point? How about we stop worrying about money, which by the way, only humans worry about (and has only been around for about 3,500 years). The money argument has to go away. Himans will need to make tremendous sacrifices, like spending ALL of their GDP on mitigating climate change if we are to survive as a species. We have a system that is completely unstainable, interms of how we do buisness, how we consume energy, how we interact with the planet, everything. If we come out the other side of this even sorta-kinda intact, society will be unrecognizable to what it is today.
I say its time to get more independents into governmental leadership. It is obvious that intelligent comprises cannot be reached or utilized until gridlocked and fanatical policies are removed entirely. I do not like politics on the blog. I am breaking protocol by making this comment, but without people who can resolve important issues, we will continue to be affected by poor decisions made in the past by certain people in our government..It needs revamping, in a manner that beneficial to the citizens. The sooner the U.S. Government works as one ( not divided by party, prejudice, or money ), we will suffer phenomenal set backs.
Quoting 444. Neapolitan:


This, as any student of logic will immediately recognize, is what's commonly known as a straw man. Rather than throw out this silly accusation, then, would you care to provide credible evidence of this alleged "demonization"? Before you try, however, note that the bar for credibility is set high enough that, for instance, paranoid and illogiocal blog rants written by thoroughly debunked non-scientitsts and appearing on ideological websites won't count.

We;ll be waiting. Thanks in advance for your reasoned response...


Anyone who's been around this blog long enough knows it's occurring nearly on a daily basis. I also find it ironic of all individuals here, you would be the one to have the audacity to ask such a rhetorical question...
Quoting help4u:
Record food production globally this year.You guys really need to get a life.Have a great day and enjoy the beautiful weather!


It's a shame that "production" can't get in the hands that need it most.

Three alarming statistics from the United Nations WFP.

Some 805 million people in the world do not have enough food to lead a healthy active life. That's about one in nine people on earth.

Poor nutrition causes nearly half (45%) of deaths in children under five - 3.1 million children each year.

WFP calculates that US$3.2 billion is needed per year to reach all 66 million hungry school-age children

Link
line from NWS Paducah discussion.

With the continual north or northwest flow aloft, temperatures trend
cooler through the extended forecast period. By next weekend, we
could see temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Winter
seems to have arrived a bit early. If this pattern persists, we may
be dealing with another rather extreme Winter.

Looks like CIMSS ADT finally caught onto Vance's eye. It's a race against time for major hurricane status.

2014NOV03 163000 4.5 977.4 77.0 4.5 4.5 6.5 MW ON OFF OFF -23.98 -73.27 EYE/P -99 IR 43.5 15.56 110.64 FCST GOES15 33.4
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like CIMSS ADT finally caught onto Vance's eye. It's a race against time for major hurricane status.

2014NOV03 163000 4.5 977.4 77.0 4.5 4.5 6.5 MW ON OFF OFF -23.98 -73.27 EYE/P -99 IR 43.5 15.56 110.64 FCST GOES15 33.4

That'll make the news.
457. MAstu
Quoting 446. PlazaRed:



Probably the biggest problem will be civil unrest.
Already a vast number of people are on the move for many reason with probably 200,000 illegally entering Europe this year so far.
When the coastal areas become subject to flooding, then migration will be inevitable. All surrounding lands are already owned, so no chance of moving up the hill a bit.

Added to this will be coastal flooding with reduced food production for more people.
The tourist industry which supports millions could also be badly hit on the coasts, leading to poverty.

Difficult really to nail down just one factor with such a massive potential problem.
I'm torn on this one. I've read that the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war were enabled by failed crops, and possibly due to climate change. The immediate concern is the ensuing civil unrest. But the longer term consequence, at least in the case of the Arab Spring, is the spread of democracy. Democracies are much more reluctant to go to war, and in the very long run a good dose of civil unrest would lead to less war. There are a lot of big leaps in that line of reasoning, but there is plenty of history of civil unrest resulting in democracy and once democracy is introduced it tends to get entrenched.

Another example. How were Germany and Japan doing 50 years after WWII? And they lost!

However, supposing a powerful democratic country perceived a serious existential threat that necessitates violence, then all that goes out the window. I don't see a clear path from drought to nukes, but it's not out of the question.
Quoting 451. hydrus:

I say its time to get more independents into governmental leadership. It is obvious that intelligent comprises cannot be reached or utilized until gridlocked and fanatical policies are removed entirely. I do not like politics on the blog. I am breaking protocol by making this comment, but without people who can resolve important issues, we will continue to be affected by poor decisions made in the past by certain people in our government..It needs revamping, in a manner that beneficial to the citizens. The sooner the U.S. Government works as one ( not divided by party, prejudice, or money ), we will suffer phenomenal set backs.


Considering that portion of your statement, I don't think I could have mashed the "+" icon any faster...
Moisture is increasing with the return flow..

Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?

This is the second time I have quoted this post.

Thinking about all the comments which have appeared over the last pad of 50, I have conceived a simple idea which a large amount of posters on this blog could easily participate in as they are in the Florida area.

As we all know Florida is an area with a lot of land near to sea level and also subject to weather extremes.
I think it would be an interesting model to just speculate on Florida as an example of the effects of global warming and climate change, as its also an area which is going to suffer catastrophically if the sea levels rise with its ports and tourism, along with low lying agricultural area.
Then there is the real estate problem of slowly becoming inundated with sea water, along with the drinking water becoming salty.

I have never been to Florida but I have studied it a bit geographically from photos and it looks like a place which is probably in the worlds top 10 along with places like Bangladesh and the Maldives, for intense suffering based on sea level rises alone.
Quoting 460. dutchessweather:
Pathetic!  There has been no climate change other than what has been changing for thousands of years!  I can't believe people are still trying to promote this fraud!  Get a life, the fraud has been revealed by none other than.....THE DATA!!!!!


You are very angry. Could you please prove how the data shows no global warming. Thanks and have a great day! :)
Quoting 461. PlazaRed:

This is the second time I have quoted this post.

Thinking about all the comments which have appeared over the last pad of 50, I have conceived a simple idea which a large amount of posters on this blog could easily participate in as they are in the Florida area.

As we all know Florida is an area with a lot of land near to sea level and also subject to weather extremes.
I think it would be an interesting model to just speculate on Florida as an example of the effects of global warming and climate change, as its also an area which is going to suffer catastrophically if the sea levels rise with its ports and tourism, along with low lying agricultural area.
Then there is the real estate problem of slowly becoming inundated with sea water, along with the drinking water becoming salty.

I have never been to Florida but I have studied it a bit geographically from photos and it looks like a place which is probably in the worlds top 10 along with places like Bangladesh and the Maldives, for intense suffering based on sea level rises alone.


South Florida has the extra wrnikle that the whole thing sits on bedrock (porpous limestone) that is basically like living on a giant sponge. You can build seawalls as the water will flow underneath. I suppose you could bring in a hundred billion cubic yards of dirt, but not realy sure where that would come from. I recommend moving while you can still sell your house.
Quoting 458. Webberweather53:



Considering that portion of your statement, I don't think I could have mashed the " " icon any faster...
I am fricken sick of all the B.S...We need leaders who are 100% trustworthy, and must be held accountable for there actions.

Extremely deep low pressure area near the Aleutians in 114 hours according to the latest GFS...923 MBs..It was 919 MB,s last nights run...27.14 inches



By the way, the storm headed into Alaska this weekend has been modeled as low as 914 mb. This would be within 1 mb of the strongest extra tropical cyclone EVER observed. Hope to hell that doesn't happen.
Quoting 463. tlawson48:


South Florida has the extra wrnikle that the whole thing sits on bedrock (porpous limestone) that is basically like living on a giant sponge. You can build seawalls as the water will flow underneath. I suppose you could bring in a hundred billion cubic yards of dirt, but not realy sure where that would come from. I recommend moving while you can still sell your house.


Quoting my own post due to horrendous grammar....(sigh)

porous, not "porpous".

CAN'T build seawalls, not CAN build seawalls
Frankly, regarding climate change and whether you feel it's caused by man or not, I believe we've already passed the initial tipping points. Positive feedback will likely worsen it in time.
Not sure if this sad news has reached here yet...
Via FB

iCyclone
11 mins · Edited ·
I'm sad to report that hurricane-chaser extraordinaire Jim Leonard has died at the age of 64. Native Floridian Jim was truly one of the pioneer hurricane chaserdudes-- one of the very first of our breed. This aside, he was a kind and generous mentor to a whole generation of great chasers-- Michael Laca, Jim Edds, Mike Theiss, Scott McPartland, and many more. Jim and I used to talk on the phone occasionally. I remember he was a true tropical dude-- always (and I mean *always*) up for a chat about our mutual obsession: chasing hurricanes. He has so many awesome videos-- but I've always really dug this one from Hurricane GEORGES in Puerto Rico. (I decided to show one of his videos because that's what he would have wanted-- us remembering him through his many hawt chases. ) So long, Jim-- you were a pioneer and a mensch. -Josh
470. eddye
looks like the cold weather comeing back this weekend from the gfs wow more cold air
471. eddye
have u guys seen latest models guys looks like cold air
Quoting 465. tlawson48:

By the way, the storm headed into Alaska this weekend has been modeled as low as 914 mb. This would be within 1 mb of the strongest extra tropical cyclone EVER observed. Hope to hell that doesn't happen.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (WED-SUN)...

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY POWERFUL STORM
TO IMPACT THE BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT
IS CURRENTLY SUPER TYPHOON NURI INTERACT WITH A 200 KT UPPER LEVEL
JET OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON A
POTENTIALLY SUB 930 MB LOW TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN BERING NEAR
ATTU ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE 00Z EC AND 06 GFS SHOWING
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO BOTH PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY FOR A DAY 5/6 FORECAST. THE CAVEAT AS ALWAYS IS THAT
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO HANDLE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS
SOMEWHAT POORLY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LARGE CHANGES IN GUIDANCE
OVER THE COMING DAYS. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY STRONG RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT SHOWN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS LENDS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
BERING IN THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDE SWATH OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE ALEUTIANS AND SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EVENT THAT THINGS PLAY OUT SIMILARLY TO
WHAT THE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
Quoting Skyepony:
Tell the Walton Family: Stop your hypocritical undercover campaign to destroy rooftop solar.

You clearly have no idea what the issues are with individual solar installations that are still attached to the grid and are generating must carry load back to the utility. The group that is sponsoring this petition is basically run by one person who hates Walmart and all large retailers, as her book and writings show. This is not an unbiased source of information about rooftop solar. I realize you're a mod, so you can so anything you like, including ban me, but since when has it been within the community standards to allow links to petitions? There are lots of petitions out there, and I don't know how you stop this once it starts.
Quoting 401. MAstu:

OK serious comment. This has been asked before on the blog, but I want to ask again.

What is your biggest, specific fear about global warming?

It's a hard sell between sea level rise and increasing frequency of extreme rainfall.

For sea level, the concern would obviously be that a large portion of the world's population lives near the coasts (I think it is a majority now or nearly so). The costs to build levees and other protection systems, or relocate people where construction isn't feasible, will be staggering.

For rainfall, we've already seen increases in the higher-end events. I've also seen statistics that a majority of flood losses in the U.S. now occur outside of the 100yr/1% floodplain used by FEMA. Although flooding certainly causes similar numbers of casualties as tornadoes/wind/hail, the damages are much higher. Flooding doesnt get the same attention as other weather events, despite these facts.
Quoting 473. sar2401:
You clearly have no idea what the issues are with individual solar installations that are still attached to the grid and are generating must carry load back to the utility. The group that is sponsoring this petition is basically run by one person who hates Walmart and all large retailers, as her book and writings show. This is not an unbiased source of information about rooftop solar. I realize you're a mod, so you can so anything you like, including ban me, but since when has it been within the community standards to allow links to petitions? There are lots of petitions out there, and I don't know how you stop this once it starts.


My father hates WalMart with a passion. He does not however do anything other than never shop there, ever. Not only has he not spent one dollar in the store, he has never set foot inside a store. He is not militant about it, he simply doesn't go there.
Quoting 439. help4u:

Biggest fear of Global warming,continued taxation of the American people for a false cause,closing of coal plants costing thousands of jobs,shortages of needed gas causing rolling blackouts and death,stopping American energy independence relying on arab oil going to terrorist causes and death.Waste of tax dollars going to companies like Solyndra and politicians in every part of our lives.Money will pour in from Soros and other billionaires to control our lives but not there's.Money is endless for global warming cause I just hope we survive the coming frigid outbreaks.Nothing new under the sun weather alaways goes in patterns go back and study history.Remember "The earth is a million degrees hot !"ALGORE 2009 PS;now million ALGORE thanks to global warming.
I have stated before that now is not the time to halt drilling for oil, or stop coal production. The economy is unstable, and any major interruption of production would have serious repercussions , but the U.S. should continue advancing on renewable energy sources along with many other countries. There are many positive and prosperous alternatives , and the oil industry wants to stay extremely profitable. The situation requires a solution, and not everyone is going to agree on what is really best for our nation.
Quoting 469. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Not sure if this sad news has reached here yet...
Via FB

iCyclone
11 mins · Edited ·
I'm sad to report that hurricane-chaser extraordinaire Jim Leonard has died at the age of 64. Native Floridian Jim was truly one of the pioneer hurricane chaserdudes-- one of the very first of our breed. This aside, he was a kind and generous mentor to a whole generation of great chasers-- Michael Laca, Jim Edds, Mike Theiss, Scott McPartland, and many more. Jim and I used to talk on the phone occasionally. I remember he was a true tropical dude-- always (and I mean *always*) up for a chat about our mutual obsession: chasing hurricanes. He has so many awesome videos-- but I've always really dug this one from Hurricane GEORGES in Puerto Rico. (I decided to show one of his videos because that's what he would have wanted-- us remembering him through his many hawt chases. ) So long, Jim-- you were a pioneer and a mensch. -Josh



:(
Quoting 473. sar2401:

You clearly have no idea what the issues are with individual solar installations that are still attached to the grid and are generating must carry load back to the utility. The group that is sponsoring this petition is basically run by one person who hates Walmart and all large retailers, as her book and writings show. This is not an unbiased source of information about rooftop solar. I realize you're a mod, so you can so anything you like, including ban me, but since when has it been within the community standards to allow links to petitions? There are lots of petitions out there, and I don't know how you stop this once it starts.

1) It's long been in the rules that such comments are allowed ("11) Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.")

2) More to your initial point, it's been well documented that the Waltons have donated millions to groups campaigning to end solar subsidies. Millions. It's not just "one person who hates Wal-Mart" saying it; it's many people. Try here. Or here. Or here. Or here. Or here.

See, this isn't about "...issues... with individual solar installations that are still attached to the grid and are generating must carry load back to the utility". No, It's about a mega corporation owned by the world's richest family being deeply in cahoots with extremely anti-American, anti-science, profit-only organizations such as ALEC and the Kochs.

Quoting 475. tlawson48:



My father hates WalMart with a passion. He does not however do anything other than never shop there, ever. Not only has he not spent one dollar in the store, he has never set foot inside a store. He is not militant about it, he simply doesn't go there.


I'm the same way when it comes to Starbucks. It's simple really: if you don't like a place, you don't go there.
Quoting 476. hydrus:
I have stated before that now is not the time to halt drilling for oil, or stop coal production. The economy is unstable, and any major interruption of production would have serious repercussions , but the U.S. should continue advancing on renewable energy sources along with many other countries. There are many positive and prosperous alternatives , and the oil industry wants to stay extremely profitable. The situation requires a solution, and not everyone is going to agree on what is really best for our nation.


Really hoping that Lockheed suceeds in developing that truck sized fusion reactor.
481. eddye
latest models trending colder
Trof after trof..Looks Decemberish to me..


Quoting 482. hydrus:

Trof after trof..Looks Decemberish to me..





Great.... another brutal winter. :/
484. N3EG
No-brainer argument number 1: Let's assume that our higher carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (fact) is caused by a natural phenomena. Why wouldn't we want to take steps to reduce that number anyway? Let's assume for argument's sake that Yellowstone started venting serious levels of CO2, and we couldn't stop it. Would we shut down coal power plants to save ourselves then?
Quoting 471. eddye:

have u guys seen latest models guys looks like cold air


I don't know eddye. By reading the blog today, it looks like hot air may be around for awhile.
486. eddye
hydrus how cold is that in Orlando from the gfs
Quoting 480. tlawson48:



Really hoping that Lockheed suceeds in developing that truck sized fusion reactor.
Fusion reactors will emerge much sooner than originally thought..And this young man will make it happen....Link
488. eddye
grothar look at hydrus thing that's very cold air idk where u getting hot air from
489. eddye

Friday 11/07 20%

Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 71F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph.




Friday Night 11/07 10%

A few clouds overnight. Low 47F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

grothar
We have the first significant Season swell in Rincon.... Cold front almost here...



Quoting 484. N3EG:

No-brainer argument number 1: Let's assume that our higher carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (fact) is caused by a natural phenomena. Why wouldn't we want to take steps to reduce that number anyway? Let's assume for argument's sake that Yellowstone started venting serious levels of CO2, and we couldn't stop it. Would we shut down coal power plants to save ourselves then?


We don't have to assume that. The increases in CO2 are of the specific isotope created through combustion and correspond with a decrease in atmospheric O2, again combustion. Very few argue that humans are not responsible for the atmospheric increases in CO2, the main arguments are that: CO2 doesn't cause warming or If CO2 does cause warming, it is not the dominant forcing (or that it can't have as large of an effect as scientists claim). Both of those arguments are also empirically false.
493. eddye
Fri Nov 7
weather.com
Mostly Sunny
71°

45°

Mostly Sunny

Chance of rain:10% Wind:NW at 12 mph
I find this AGW, for GW discourse all so amusing. It seems that whether you are in one camp or the other, EVERYONE keeps missing a point in the discussion, and that is the POLLUTION created while using whatever form of energy to drive our modern economies. We are polluting the earth to get whatever "crap" in the ground out, and polluting the earth using said "crap". We've got to find a better way to live and use the finite resources on this planet. But as Dr.Masters pointed out the graphic, there are appx. $27 trillion dollars worth of wealth tied up in energy reserves and the earth be damned or not, we humans WILL find a way to extract that wealth from each other one way or another. Unfortunately, we may end up killing ourselves in the process of "living comfortably" for now, who cares about the future, we won't be here attitude. It's all about Me, ME, ME.
Thought I would post this one more time just in case some of you have not heard. Storm Chasing legend Jim Leonard passed away this morning at 7:30 AM in West Palm Beach. He was 64. Jim had put up a brave battle with cancer for the past several months. I had visited with him in the Hospital on Saturday night along with some other close chaser friends and his sister. It was quite apparent at that point that the end was near. I knew Jim for just over 29-years as we both lived just minutes apart here in South Florida. He started chasing Hurricanes and Tornado's around 1970 and I believe he was the second person to do it behind David Hoadley, who as many of you know started Storm Track Magazine. I was in several Hurricanes with Jim including Hugo in 1989 in SC, Opal in Fort Walton Beach in 1995 and Frances in Juno Beach Fl in 2004 aside from the many times I chased with him in Tornado alley. Saw lots of Tornado's and Severe Thunderstorms. Jim's storm footage has been shown on Television world wide many times over the years and he himself had appeared in several programs and books about storm chasing. Jim had hundreds of storm chaser friends worldwide as every time I went to his house to visit him, his phone would never stop ringing. Jim Leonard was truly the one guy that really got this whole storm chasing hobby off the ground more then anybody during the 1980s and 90s. He will be greatly missed by the entire chase community.
Quoting 494. HouGalv08:

I find this AGW, for GW discourse all so amusing. It seems that whether you are in one camp or the other, EVERYONE keeps missing a point in the discussion, and that is the POLLUTION created while using whatever form of energy to drive our modern economies. We are polluting the earth to get whatever "crap" in the ground out, and polluting the earth using said "crap". We've got to find a better way to live and use the finite resources on this planet. But as Dr.Masters pointed out the graphic, there is $27 trillion dollars worth of wealth tied up in energy reserves and the earth be damned or not we humans WILL find a way to extract that wealth from each other one way or another. Unfortunately, we may end up killing ourselves in the process of "living comfortably" for now, who cares about the future, we won't be here. It's all about Me, ME, ME.
Good post....and the Me Me people are increasing there numbers at a astonishing rate.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 495. HurriHistory:

Thought I would post this one more time just in case some of you have not heard. Storm Chasing legend Jim Leonard passed away this morning at 7:30 AM in West Palm Beach. He was 64. Jim had put up a brave battle with cancer for the past several months. I had visited with him in the Hospital on Saturday night along with some other close chaser friends and his sister. It was quite apparent at that point that the end was near. I knew Jim for just over 29-years as we both lived just minutes apart here in South Florida. He started chasing Hurricanes and Tornado's around 1970 and I believe he was the second person to do it behind David Hoadley, who as many of you know started Storm Track Magazine. I was in several Hurricanes with Jim including Hugo in 1989 in SC, Opal in Fort Walton Beach in 1995 and Frances in Juno Beach Fl in 2004 aside from the many times I chased with him in Tornado alley. Saw lots of Tornado's and Severe Thunderstorms. Jim's storm footage has been shown on Television world wide many times over the years and he himself had appeared in several programs and books about storm chasing. Jim had hundreds of storm chaser friends worldwide as every time I went to his house to visit him, his phone would never stop ringing. Jim Leonard was truly the one guy that really got this whole storm chasing hobby off the ground more then anybody during the 1980s and 90s. He will be greatly missed by the entire chase community.
Just posting this again.
Quoting 429. washingtonian115:

If el nino is declared in December I highly doubt it'll last through the summer of 2015.I think if it dissipates by early spring could have something like 1998


I'd personally lean more towards a multi-yr warm ENSO event, but if we don't meet El Nino criteria (as defined by CPC- 5 successive tri-monthlies in NINO 3.4 >/=.5C), we'd be treading uncharted territory as far as I'm concerned, w/ the closest analogs in the comparatively less reliable pre-1950 ONI record. I agree with earlier statements made by Cody Fields, I'm also struggling to see how we'll be able to pull of a full-blown modoki El Nino, especially given the oncoming favorable downwelling Equatorial Kelvin Wave.


On the other I think it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility to think a "hybrid" El Nino event could be in order by virtue of previous events experiencing significant upwelling in this region during & just after the solstice. Hybrid El Nino events are simply an intermediary between the Classic, east-Based El Ninos that feature the strongest +anoms. hugging the west coast of South America & Modoki El Ninos w/ a definitive (from west-east in the Pacific) Cold-Warm-Cold tripole in equatorially SST anomalies... In fact, I have noticed that w/ varying degrees of intensity, many of the Hybrid El Nino events such as 2009-10, 1976-77, 1972-73, 1965-66 1957-58, & 1951-52 actually started off with the canonical east-based El Nino signature...


However, as the fall & winter progressed, the El Ninos went astray from the other classical events like 1997-98, 1982-83, & 2006-07, and the strongest +SST anomalies sloshed westward into the NINO 3-4 regions, while leaving NINO 1-2 still warmer than normal, thus not fully satisfying the definition of a modoki El Nino....



The other events (1986-87, 1991-92, 1994-94, 2002-03) actually inverted, starting in the central Pacific & migrating eastward with increasing time. This led me to think that although I argue that the PDO is just a reddened response to ENSO & has a seemingly negligible influence on individual ENSO events, it's obvious from looking at Hybrid El Ninos the multidecadal PDO phase had an effect on the behavior of the evolution of Hybrid El Ninos, with +PDO Hybrid Events beginning in the central Pacific and migrating eastward, while -PDO Hybrid El Ninos started in NINO 1-2 and started to fade late in their lifetimes into the central Pacific...

I've already posted this here before, but you can see not only in terms of SSTs, but also US temps, winter 500mb pattern, etc. Hybrid El Ninos serve as a nice blend of Modoki & Traditional El Nino types despite the fact that large amounts of variance are noted outside the SST composites in all categories...



Also, it's worth mentioning that when viewing Levi Cowan's NINO region temperature plots, you must consider that NOAA uses OISSTv2 (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Version 2) while he uses CDAS. Caution must be particularly exercised when interpreting NINO 1-2 SSTs & trends as this NINO is notoriously volatile, and I deem it likely that turbulent eddy mixing due a brief trade wind surge following the formation of Vince in the E Pac contributed to the cooling SSTs noted in Levi's NINO 1-2 SST analysis. I also suspect there may be some phase locking with the positioning of upper level velocity potential associated w/ the passage of the MJO & CCKWs


SST spike ~Oct 18, I noted at the time using Mike Ventrice's Equatorial Wave VP 200 diagrams, the CCKW & MJO are both generally overhead or juxtaposed slightly west of the NINO 1-2 region, which implies increased potential for a westerly wind bursts considering this somewhat conceptual model derived of course from Matsuno's (1966) postulations of Quasi-Geostrophic Motions & Equatorially trapped waves on a shallow-water equatorial beta-plane...


The very robust -VP anomalies towards the left side of the diagram in early-mid Sept in accordance w/ dynamical coupling of the MJO & CCKW over the Maritime Continent & Western Pacific, east of the NINO 1-2 regions shows up nicely in the NINO 1-2 CDAS SSTs. Hard to miss the drastic dip in anomalies around mid Sept...



You can also pick up the sudden trade wind burst in the 850mb wind anomalies (blue= anomalous easterlies, yellow/orange=anomalous westerlies)
I do believe I called that late last week :-) Should peak tomorrow. Looks fun. More to come if pattern remains same.

Quoting 490. sunlinepr:

We have the first significant Season swell in Rincon.... Cold front almost here...




Running Out of Names?