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Vance a Potential Heavy Rain Threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2014

Satellite images show that Tropical Storm Vance has an expanding area of heavy thunderstorms that have improved in organization since Friday. Vance is over warm waters with low wind shear, so intensification into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday is a good bet, but the storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico through Sunday. Vance will get pulled to the northeast by a trough of low pressure on Monday, but might not make it all the way to Mexico. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain low, 5 - 10 knots, though Monday, then ramp up significantly on Monday night and Tuesday as Vance gets caught up in the trough of low pressure that will sling it towerds Mexico. The higher wind shear will likely be able to tear Vance apart before landfall, making heavy rain the primary threat. In their 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave a 7 - 11% chance that Vance would bring tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph to Puerto Vallarta and the tip of the Baja Peninsula. The 06Z Saturday run of the GFDL model predicted that Vance's moisture would bring a swath of heavy rains of 4 - 8" from just northwest of Puerto Vallarta into Texas, Tuesday night into Wednesday.


Figure 1. VIIRS satellite image of Tropical Storm Vance off the Pacific coast of Mexico on Thursday, October 31, 2014. At the time, Vance had top sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Tropical Storm Nuri may brush Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nuri is near typhoon strength, and is headed towards Japan. Nuri may pass close enough to Japan on Thursday to bring them heavy rain, but a direct hit appears unlikely.

Quiet in the Atlantic
The Atlantic is quiet today, with no areas of concern to discuss. None of the three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts any development in the Atlantic over the next five days. With November at hand and El Niño-like atmospheric conditions in place, the odds of getting Tropical Storm Isaias before the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30 are probably around 30%.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Doc. Nuri's starting to look like it'll be a strong typhoon. Could it become a category 5?
thanx doc....there's a possibility remnants make its way to us next week
Thanks, Doc. its starting to snow at my house no more rain all snow!
Thanks for the update, doc, and have a nice weekend!

Hi folks; hope you all enjoyed some ominous things last night with Halloween. Little video impression of my experiences in Mainz/Germany are here.

Ominous is the weather in Western Europe as well. Yesterday temperature records in the UK:

Warmest UK Halloween on record
BBC, 31 October 2014 Last updated at 17:28 GMT
This year's Halloween has been the warmest on record in the UK, BBC weather has said.
A temperature of 23.6C (74.3F) was recorded in Gravesend, Kent and Kew Gardens, Greater London, surpassing the previous record of 20.0C. ...


Today the same thing in western Germany with new records for November f.e. with 23C (73,4F) in Aachen.


Source wetteronline.


Click to enlarge.



Foggy skies in my place near Frankfurt though. So the temperatures didn't rise as much, but you still can see some people sitting in the outside areas of our cafes, even yesterday late in the evening.
Good morning Dr. Jeff.. spell check alert!
"..that will sling it towerds Mexico. The higher..."
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
816 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST ABOUT OVER THE CITY
OF COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF BRIGHT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD INDICATE SOME SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THE RAINFALL. THIS IS BEING VERIFIED BY LOOKING OUT
OF THE OFFICE WINDOW. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS RAINFALL WITH SOME
SNOW MIXED IN...BUT SOME AREAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF ALL SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
THIS MAY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH...ON
GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ROADWAY TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. OF NOTE...WITH THIS SNOW OVER COLUMBIA...THIS NOW THE
EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR THE CITY.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING.
Quoting 5. JNFlori30A:

Good morning Dr. Jeff.. spell check alert!
"..that will sling it towerds Mexico. The higher..."


Leave the man alone. He has a mid-western accent.
Got a wind gust at my house earlier that was strong enough to blow my cat off the front porch.

High here is supposed to be 67 today...but right now it's 48...so we'll see how that goes...

Anxious to see if it snows on the Tennessee-South Carolina or Georgia St.-Appalachian State games today... THAT would be pretty cool..
Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
816 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST ABOUT OVER THE CITY
OF COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF BRIGHT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD INDICATE SOME SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THE RAINFALL. THIS IS BEING VERIFIED BY LOOKING OUT
OF THE OFFICE WINDOW. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS RAINFALL WITH SOME
SNOW MIXED IN...BUT SOME AREAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF ALL SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
THIS MAY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH...ON
GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ROADWAY TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. OF NOTE...WITH THIS SNOW OVER COLUMBIA...THIS NOW THE
EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR THE CITY.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING.



You did good on this one Scott. I never doubted you for a moment.
Quoting 8. JrWeathermanFL:

Got a wind gust at my house earlier that was strong enough to blow my cat off the front porch.

High here is supposed to be 67 today...but right now it's 48...so we'll see how that goes...

Anxious to see if it snows on the Tennessee-South Carolina or Georgia St.-Appalachian State games today... THAT would be pretty cool..



It is a windy one today, isn't it?
Nuri



Smog over northern Italy today. Photo is from Alexander Gearst, the German astronaut on board of the ISS for the last months. Soon he'll return to the ground. Check out his great facebook blog (in English as well) with so many phantastic shots, f.e. this one from yesterday:


If you are a Galapagos volcano, you just make your own weather. Simple as that.

-----------------------------

BTW, concerning northern Italy (and southern France): already for days warnings are out that they should see huge amounts of rain (once again!) next week:

i was thinking dr m would do a blog on the rare snow happening today in COLUMBIA SC but dr m did a blog on tropic weather i think a blog on snow weather would have been more fun

i was thinking dr m would do a blog on the rare snow happening today in COLUMBIA SC but dr m did a blog on tropic weather i think a blog on snow weather would have been more fun


just maybe...no matter how we drag it off topic...this is a blog about the tropics?...lol
Quoting 14. ricderr:


i was thinking dr m would do a blog on the rare snow happening today in COLUMBIA SC but dr m did a blog on tropic weather i think a blog on snow weather would have been more fun


just maybe...no matter how we drag it off topic...this is a blog about the tropics?...lol


lol we are getting too are off season and its time too go from tropic weather too snow weather and today blog would have been a great way too start NOV
Quoting 15. Tazmanian:


lol we are getting too are off season and its time too go from tropic weather too snow weather and today blog would have been a great way too start NOV


Especially with this being a historic event for some.

Clinton, SC.
Quoting 16. StormTrackerScott:



Especially with this being a historic event for some.



yep that sould have been today topic the historic snow event we can all ways talk about the tropics
WOW

Four to five inches of snow was reported in Asheville, North Carolina while 2.5 inches was measured in Boone, North Carolina. Seven inches was measured near Marshall, North Carolina (2280' elevation).

Mt. LeConte, Tennessee (6400' elevation) measured 16 inches of snow. Numerous roads were shut down in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, including U.S. 441. Trees were "cracking and popping" due to the weight of almost 12 inches of snow near Hartford, Tennessee (3400' elevation).

Up to 2 inches of snow was observed on Burnt Mountain northwest of Dawsonville, Georgia, and flurries fell in parts of the Atlanta metro area.
THE GOES-E RSO CURRENTLY IN OPERATION THROUGH 1644Z 01 NOV WILL
BE EXTENDED TO 0114Z 02 NOV...IN SUPPORT OF WFO CHARLESTON
MONITORING THE COASTAL LOW WINTER WX POTENTIAL.


Loop
Thanks Doc.
From last blog:

We'll have to keep an eye on the Bay Of Bengal again next week, models are showing another system:









The GFS is the most agressive, followed by the UKMET. The CMC is rather fast with the system compared to other models and the Euro is a lot slower in developing it. Definitely something to watch in the coming week. The models should start getting a better handle on it in the coming days.
Northeast |
- Becoming increasingly unsettled for the region this weekend as a coastal storm begins to take shape.
- Rain and snow showers move into the region today.
- Wet snow mixed with rain showers can be expected in northwest Pennsylvania, southwest New York and the Adirondack Mountains today and tonight.
- High temperatures this weekend should be mostly in the 30s and 40s with some 50s in Virginia.
- Low pressure deepens off the Northeast coast late today and will increase rain, wind and snow for New England by Sunday.
- Still uncertainty of the exact track of the low, but heavy snow is most likely across interior northern and eastern Maine with mainly rain in southeast New England and along the Maine coast.
- Strong wind gusts for southeastern New England by late Sunday may cause power outages, downed trees and coastal flooding.
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:

WOW

Four to five inches of snow was reported in Asheville, North Carolina while 2.5 inches was measured in Boone, North Carolina. Seven inches was measured near Marshall, North Carolina (2280' elevation).

Mt. LeConte, Tennessee (6400' elevation) measured 16 inches of snow. Numerous roads were shut down in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, including U.S. 441. Trees were "cracking and popping" due to the weight of almost 12 inches of snow near Hartford, Tennessee (3400' elevation).

Up to 2 inches of snow was observed on Burnt Mountain northwest of Dawsonville, Georgia, and flurries fell in parts of the Atlanta metro area.
i am happy!!
Watching Rugters and Wisconsin at the moment mainly because it's 41 degrees, pouring rain, and a NE 18mph wind added on..

Id rather play in heavy snow with no wind...
Charleston? Warning of a potential wintry mix...the day after Halloween? This must be some sort of anomaly.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1205 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

SCZ040-042>045-047>052-011900-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
1205 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

Watching Rugters and Wisconsin at the moment mainly because it's 41 degrees, pouring rain, and a NE 18mph wind added on..

Id rather play in heavy snow with no wind...



always hated playing in the rain....and rain on artificial turf was the worst
Good afternoon all..

I guess the Appalachians moved to interior Columbia SC eh? Those experts on here are something else..

NWS, Wilmington, NC..got dark and cloudy here in the past hour and temp dropping..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM SATURDAY...WINDY AND CHILLY WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVE HOURS. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING TEMPS AT 500 MB
DOWN TO NEAR MINUS 27 DEG C. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HELPING TO INTENSIFY LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL BECOME A POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THERE WERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS AND FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE RECEIVE REPORTS OF GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL INTO THIS EVE. IN
FACT...SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY OCCUR WITHOUT ANY THUNDER IN THE
AREA GIVEN FREEZING LEVELS OF 4-5 KFT AND STEEP TEMP LAPSE RATES.

I still hope for my hybrid-subtropical storm that forms in January, moves into the GOMEX and causes blizzards across Florida. Maybe one day..?

Image will change... already .43 and this band should be the last of it. Light snow reported in Big Bear.
Quoting 27. ncstorm:

Good afternoon all..

I guess the Appalachians moved to interior Columbia SC eh? Those experts on here are something else..

NWS, Wilmington, NC..got dark and cloudy here in the past hour and temp dropping..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM SATURDAY...WINDY AND CHILLY WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVE HOURS. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING TEMPS AT 500 MB
DOWN TO NEAR MINUS 27 DEG C. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HELPING TO INTENSIFY LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL BECOME A POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THERE WERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS AND FORCING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE RECEIVE REPORTS OF GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL INTO THIS EVE. IN
FACT...SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY OCCUR WITHOUT ANY THUNDER IN THE
AREA GIVEN FREEZING LEVELS OF 4-5 KFT AND STEEP TEMP LAPSE RATES.




The thunder and lightning woke me up, thought I heard hail but the wind was also blowing the rain against my window and as I had only been asleep for a few hrs I wasn't about to go check lol.
PedleyCA


ped...just in case you have forgotten...that's called rain :-)
Quoting 31. ricderr:

PedleyCA


ped...just in case you have forgotten...that's called rain :-)

Thanks, they mentioned that on the News and also showed pictures of snow at the Big Bear ski resort. Just a dusting but it was there and they were all happy about it.


A lot of Mid Atlantic radar images seem to be showing some kind of apocalypse, including the official NWS radar. I'm not sure what's going on, because I'm on the ground and it's only drizzling.

according to this we got .43, the since Jul 01 number was .37, so big improvement....
Thanks, they mentioned that on the News and also showed pictures of snow at the Big Bear ski resort. Just a dusting but it was there and they were all happy about it.



i'm hoping ski apache will get some snow or else become cold enough to make snow for the thanksgiving weekend
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1131 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033 -039-053-055-021545-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARI ON-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
1131 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

FREEZE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

Cold and Snow are not the only thing hitting N.Carolina today, there's also a Hurricane pounding them here in Miami!

(UM 30 UNC 6 at half)
Earlier today

Dave Skutnik @WBREWxDave · 5h 5 hours ago

This is Columbia, South Carolina right now. It was 84 there on Wednesday. SNOWING this morning. Amazing.



end of the week snow chances

for fri nov7


this is a model depiction events can and will change
nam overnight lows tonight for se
lows for ne tonight with storm off eastern seaboard

Just going to put this out there, the year Columbia, SC just topped for the earliest snowfall on record (Nov 1913), later in that winter of 1913-14, Columbia got absolutely destroyed on Feb 25-26 with 11.7 inches of snow... (Also see 1958-59 near the top of their all-time snowfall list, that's one of the best analogs, IMO to this upcoming winter, it's popping up almost everywhere I look) Interesting...
Link
What is that down by Guadelupe, St.John's? Persistent.
no pouch in the sw carib.? seems to be some turning.
50. vis0
NOT saying TS season is over in fact left my thoughts on that on my blog (please drop pieces of bread as you read my blog, you might get lost & have to find your way back to sanity...that's not were Santa lives!)

The following are 4 of my 6 choices to be checked for revising 2014's TS totals. Only 2 of these 6 i think will be checked. Since some here like multiple choice lists just add your own and/or ONLY , REMOVE my VIDs (so people don't get carpal tunnel - scroooolling) use INSTEAD the VID's letter (A, B, C or D) add Y or N, e.g. A-n,B-y etc.  Better yet have (apology forgot name) WxU member whom took TS ques-tamites in May to create a blog for this yrs top 3 revisions added or subtracted (i think a few want Bertha out, i say leave her in as TStorms are not a beauty contest not to mention beauty is in the eye of the B(arometric)-holder.
No, "Oz" this is not double or nothing (Congrats on the win a week ago).
Chrono order;

A


B


C

D

Further explanations?, read VIDs descriptions at youtube, be warned i wrote it.
what happern to invest 94E
I wish I was getting snow...
12Z GFS has a possible system in the GOM next weekend.
The system looks to be non-tropical, but they can become pretty strong in the GOM.
System ends up being a strong storm up in the N.E.





Quoting Sfloridacat5:
12Z GFS has a possible system in the GOM next weekend.
The system looks to be non-tropical, but they can become pretty strong in the GOM. N.E. GOM has been know to produce some strong non-tropical systems.


anyone who wishes to object will be put on ignore for 12 hours.
Powerful low over the Aleutians in a week.


Quoting 54. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS has a possible system in the GOM next weekend.
The system looks to be non-tropical, but they can become pretty strong in the GOM.
System ends up being a strong storm up in the N.E.


Something we might see in an El Nino year.
Quoting 62901IL:

anyone who wishes to object will be put on ignore for 12 hours.


System could end up being the next storm for the Eastcoast and N.E.
Probably get its start down in the GOM, but it really gets going as it moves up the eastcoast.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


System could end up being the next storm for the Eastcoast and N.E.
Probably get its start down in the GOM, but it really gets going as it moves up the eastcoast.

:)
Powerful low over the Aleutians in a week.

is that in the atlantic or the gulf of mexico?.....LOL
Since a new blog appeared in about an hour after this , thought I would repost this historical note .... hope you don't mind. Stay warm and dry all.


Happy Birthday National Weather Service

from the Key West NWS Discussion

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1870...THE FIRST SYSTEMATIC
AND SYNCHRONIZED OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN BY 24 OFFICES NATIONWIDE IN
A NEW DIVISION OF THE SIGNAL CORE...LATER TO BECOME THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. ONE OF THESE FIRST 24 OFFICES WAS THE KEY WEST
STATION LOCATED AT THE RUSSELL HOUSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF DUVAL
STREET BETWEEN GREEN AND FRONT STREETS.
Wind Advisory
Statement as of 11:59 AM EDT on November 01, 2014
...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM EST Sunday...

* locations...Suffolk County NY and coastal New Haven... Middlesex and New London counties in Connecticut.

* Hazards...strong winds.

* Winds...north 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...this afternoon through the day Sunday.

* Impacts...some tree limbs and branches might fall onto power lines causing scattered power outages. Strong winds will make driving difficult on elevated roads and bridges.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph... or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Quoting 60. ricderr:

Powerful low over the Aleutians in a week.

is that in the atlantic or the gulf of mexico?.....LOL


No golf for me today. Winds howling across the Tampa Bay area.



lots of rain!!
No golf for me today. Winds howling across the Tampa Bay area.


winds are supposed to pick up here this afternoon...not that i can tell...stuck in the office all day
There's been a steady, cold rain at my house since the hailstorm this morning. Temperatures topped out around 55F earlier, but they've since fallen into the upper 40s. This system makes me even more excited for what winter has to offer.
Wow, its 46 degrees in Columbia South Carolina. That snow is long gone.

The timing had to be perfect for that snow event this morning in central S.C.
Quoting 61. docrod:

Since a new blog appeared in about an hour after this , thought I would repost this historical note .... hope you don't mind. Stay warm and dry all.


Happy Birthday National Weather Service

from the Key West NWS Discussion

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1870...THE FIRST SYSTEMATIC
AND SYNCHRONIZED OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN BY 24 OFFICES NATIONWIDE IN
A NEW DIVISION OF THE SIGNAL CORE...LATER TO BECOME THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. ONE OF THESE FIRST 24 OFFICES WAS THE KEY WEST
STATION LOCATED AT THE RUSSELL HOUSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF DUVAL
STREET BETWEEN GREEN AND FRONT STREETS.


Really, who taught these people to spell. Spell Check is not your friend, Try, the Signal Corp
They may rename Nilofar to Notgoingfar.

Quoting 69. Sfloridacat5:

Wow, its 46 degrees in Columbia South Carolina. That snow is long gone.

The timing had to be perfect for that snow event this morning in central S.C.


From SC department of Transportation

I-20W: between 1 mile west of Exit 58-US 1 and Columbia Airport-West Columbia and 3 miles west of Exit 39-US 178
Snow/ice on roadway.
Last updated: 3:35pm today.
Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's been a steady, cold rain at my house since the hailstorm this morning. Temperatures topped out around 55F earlier, but they've since fallen into the upper 40s. This system makes me even more excited for what winter has to offer.
temp fall fast into the upper 30s. here
I cant believe that there is snow in the US on Nov 1!
And I find it harder to believe that Washi isnt here celebrating?
With it still being November, temps have moved well above freezing in these southern snow spots. The snow is probably gone now. A sight to behold though!

It feels like a Florida winter cold spell here with temps in the 50's gusty winds and 30's by tonight.
Why would she, no snow for Washi this time around.


Tropical Storm Nuri may brush Japan
Typhoon Nuri

Typhoon Nuri
Last Updated Nov 2, 2014 18 GMT
Location 14.9N 133.1E Movement NW
Wind 85 MPH
Quoting 42. capeflorida:

Cold and Snow are not the only thing hitting N.Carolina today, there's also a Hurricane pounding them here in Miami!

(UM 30 UNC 6 at half)


Yes but when they play the Noles in a couple weeks, they will inject 50kts+ wind sheer along with cold air advection and a deep layered dry airmass, causing the hurricane to rapidly dissipate ;)
Quoting 46. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lows for ne tonight with storm off eastern seaboard




That temperature gradient between the land areas versus well out into the Atlantic is quite extreme. You could take off on a boat from Nantucket, MA where temps are in the upper 40s, and head a couple hundred miles into the Atlantic and temperatures would be nearing 70F.
I cant believe that there is snow in the US on Nov 1!
And I find it harder to believe that Washi isnt here celebrating?

i'll have to check and see if she had snow...but while rare for the south....many places have had snow all the way back in august
Coastal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 3:25 PM EDT on November 01, 2014
...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 am EST Sunday...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a coastal Flood Advisory...which is in effect until 10 am EST Sunday. The coastal Flood Watch is no longer in effect.

* Location...the eastern Massachusetts coast from Salisbury south to Boston including Plum Island and the island of Nantucket. Greatest risk along north facing shorelines.

* Coastal flooding...minor flooding this evening with isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding possible Sunday morning. Beach erosion is also expected especially during the Sunday morning high tide.

* Timing...during this evening/S and early Sunday morning high tide cycles. While both high tide cycles are a concern...the latest data suggests the Sunday morning high tide will pose the greatest risk.

* Impacts...some of the most vulnerable shore roads may be flooded and impassable for a time during the times of high tide. Basement flooding is also possible along with beach erosion Sunday morning.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that the potential exists for moderate or major coastal flooding. Moderate coastal flooding produces flooding of vulnerable shore roads and/or basements due to the height of storm tide and/or wave action.

All tide heights are relative to mean lower low water. Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Quoting 82. ricderr:

I cant believe that there is snow in the US on Nov 1!
And I find it harder to believe that Washi isnt here celebrating?

i'll have to check and see if she had snow...but while rare for the south....many places have had snow all the way back in august


I guess I havent seen her around lately ...and snow, anywhere, usually brings her out of the woodwork.
Probably the most colorful the hazards map has been for viewing area since early July.



Maybe well see the lighter greens-yellow near the coast this evening as the low ramps up and works its way up the seaboard.

new pictures of the snow on the ground soon
Quoting 84. txjac:



I guess I havent seen her around lately ...and snow, anywhere, usually brings her out of the woodwork.


she will get her snow end of next weekend as the gulf low bombs out off east coast pulling the next shot of cold snowy weather south

its only the beginning lots more of winter yet to come
end of next weekend as per gfs anyway it will change have to see I guess

some fans to help push cool air south



nice snow picture!!
Quoting 74. txjac:

I cant believe that there is snow in the US on Nov 1!
And I find it harder to believe that Washi isnt here celebrating?
I'm just in the background lurking.As TWA13 said earlier it makes me wonder what winter has in store,
Winds picking up here..

Cold air right out of Northern Canada...nice.....Loose the fans Keep..:)

OBX likely to get whacked tonight. Gale warning. Maybe it will be upgraded to Storm Warning.

Further north Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are going to get a solid blow tomorrow.

Lots of snow for interior northern Maine tomorrow into Monday.

Quoting 92. ncstorm:

Winds picking up here..


That's impressive.

Quoting 93. hydrus:

Cold air right out of Northern Canada...nice.....Loose the fans Keep..:)


After a brief lull in activity, the West Pacific is back in action with Typhoon Nuri. Amid a very favorable environment, Nuri is beginning a period of rapid deepening this afternoon, with a clearing eye evident on infrared satellite imagery. Conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over the next 2 days, and the forecast from the JTWC now indicates that the cyclone will reach super typhoon status, with winds of 130kt. I wouldn't rule out a Category 5 equivalent typhoon if inner core processes don't take over first.

While Nuri is of no concern to any landmasses -- it is forecast to track east of Japan -- its recurvature into the mid-latitudes should translate to a potent trough across the East United States in about two weeks.

Quoting ncstorm:


From SC department of Transportation

I-20W: between 1 mile west of Exit 58-US 1 and Columbia Airport-West Columbia and 3 miles west of Exit 39-US 178
Snow/ice on roadway.
Last updated: 3:35pm today.


Here's a link to the city of Columbia South Carolina road network webcams.
The streets are dry and there is no snow on the ground in Columbia South Carolina.

Link
Quoting 95. HaoleboySurfEC:

That's impressive.


Mutha Nature flexing her winter biceps a bit early this year.....Grab your thickest wettie and cut gnarly tracks in da soup..:)
Quoting 80. Jedkins01:



Yes but when they play the Noles in a couple weeks, they will inject 50kts wind sheer along with cold air advection and a deep layered dry airmass, causing the hurricane to rapidly dissipate ;)


I believe your forecast is based on last years models and not in recent data (i.e., the last two weeks) My models are calling for at least a Cat3 on Nov 15 to make landfall at the Miami Dade/Broward border and with that the season (and yours) will come to an end! ;-)

The weather down here could not be better!
100. MahFL
Quoting 98. hydrus:

Mutha Nature flexing her winter biceps a bit early this year.....Grab your thickest wettie and cut gnarly tracks in da soup..:)


Here in Orange Park it got up to 59F, temp is starting to drop now.
Quoting 99. capeflorida:



I believe your forecast is based on last years models and not in recent data (i.e., the last two weeks) My models are calling for at least a Cat3 on Nov 15 to make landfall at the Miami Dade/Broward border and with that the season (and yours) will come to an end! ;-)

The weather down here could not be better!


And Duke will add on to that loss come late November....

Quoting 94. HaoleboySurfEC:

OBX likely to get whacked tonight. Gale warning. Maybe it will be upgraded to Storm Warning.

Further north Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are going to get a solid blow tomorrow.

Lots of snow for interior northern Maine tomorrow into Monday.




URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
439 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE OUTER BANKS AND
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND...

.A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 55 MPH. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

NCZ103-104-021000-
/O.CON.KMHX.HW.W.0001.141102T0200Z-141102T1200Z/
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...
NAGS HEAD...SOUTHERN SHORES
439 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND LOOSE OBJECTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$


Tropical Storm VANCE at 5:27 PM EDT on November 01, 2014

Tropical Storm VANCE

2:00 PM PDT Sat Nov 1
Location: 10.1°N 104.4°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Here's a link to the city of Columbia South Carolina road network webcams.
The streets are dry and there is no snow on the ground in Columbia South Carolina.

Link

From the Columbia SC NWS:

Record Report
Statement as of 2:23 PM EDT on November 1, 2014



... New record set for the earliest snowfall at the Columbia Metro
Airport...

A new record has been set for the earliest official snowfall... not
measurable snowfall... at Columbia Metro Airport. The new record is
a trace of snow on November 1st 2014.

The old record for the earliest official snowfall... not measurable
snowfall... at Columbia was a trace of snow on November 9th 1913.

Daily records date back to 1887 in the Columbia area.


This record was for the earliest non-measurable snowfall. There was a 25 mile wide band of snow earlier this morning in the deformation zone of the low. The only measurable snow occurred in this band. There was officially no snow at Columbia Owens Airport. Although snow was seen to fall, it didn't accumulate. It's now 49 degrees and almost all the snow that did accumulate has melted. It's still a pretty good record for Columbia but not the storm of the century.
Quoting 100. MahFL:



Here in Orange Park it got up to 59F, temp is starting to drop now.
Greetings Mah...It has been in the 30,s all day here in Mid TN.....I,ll swap you even for the 59..:)
Quoting 97. Sfloridacat5:



Here's a link to the city of Columbia South Carolina road network webcams.
The streets are dry and there is no snow on the ground in Columbia South Carolina.

Link


You have been trying all day to discount the snow..you said all the snow was long gone in your comment..I provided a link from the SC department of transportation just a few minutes after you posted your comment stating that snow AND ice was still on the roads and highways and the timestamp..I highly doubt the SC DOT would lie..I guess after two hours after I posted the comment you would come back with a webcam view..

Quoting hurricanes2018:


nice snow picture!!
Where is this?
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Where is this?
somewhere over the rainbow who knows likely a random picture taken from a web search
It was said that snow would not be seen east of the Appalachians several times on this blog..and Columbia, SC is definitely east of the Appalachians..downplaying a snowfall record because you were clearly wrong in your prediction is quite funny to me..

and why do people fabricate tales on here..who said this was the storm of the century?
As it often is in these storms, Nantucket island will be a fun place to be for the next 24 hours. Already wind gusts near 50mph there. They may get a gust or two close to 70mph, with driving rain. A little further west and it could've been a major snowstorm for eastern MA and RI; instead looks like just eastern ME gets into the heavy snow.

Quoting 107. hydrus:


strong system cold wise for so early in the season we are to bottom out at 25 tonight factor in the wind chill may feel like high teens late tonight
my pws shows chills already at 24f outside air temps falling now from a high of 35.8 now down to 34.2
Quoting ncstorm:
It was said that snow would not be seen east of the Appalachians several times on this blog..and Columbia, SC is definitely east of the Appalachians..downplaying a snowfall record because you were clearly wrong in your prediction is quite funny to me..

and why do people fabricate tales on here..who said this was the storm of the century?


Hey don't look at me, snow forecasts are quite irrelevant in my area! :P
Quoting 97. Sfloridacat5:



Here's a link to the city of Columbia South Carolina road network webcams.
The streets are dry and there is no snow on the ground in Columbia South Carolina.

Link
I-26 East at Exit 110 (US 378) that looks like snow on the ground, off the median.
Quoting 112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

my pws shows chills already at 24f outside air temps falling now from a high of 35.8 now down to 34.2


Is your webcam still working? Is there a link to it?
The next stop for this nor'easter is New England. As MA just said, not much accumulation for most of the region with the exception of Maine, where it'll be quite the storm...

Quoting 116. PedleyCA:



Is your webcam still working? Is there a link to it?
I have to relocate it its up on roof next to pws but wifi is useless thinking its to far away from device

and I have had to replace my modem recently so I have to reprogram the cam with the new wireless code you know that 26 number id that's on the modem box and I just have not got around to it been very busy as of late
my pws shows chills already at 24f outside air temps falling now from a high of 35.8 now down to 34.2


woolies hanging by the fire?
Florida 24, Georgia 7(1:44 left in 3rd)
Well we got up to high of 61 in Daytona Beach today under clear and crisp skies, and brisk northerly winds ushering in colder, drier air which has resulted in a fire weather warning issued for our area. Tonight we are supposed to dip down to a low of 43. If the winds stay up we might not meet max radiational cooling, still though the wind chills will make it feel colder. Anyways no complains here I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts here in FL. these cold snaps don't usually last long a day or two and the temps. rebound, a far cry from what is going to happen in the Northeast, especially Maine where over 2 feet of snow is not out of the realm of possibility.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:00 PM EDT Saturday 1 November 2014




Condition:Cloudy
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:35.1°F
Dewpoint:25.5°F
Humidity:68%
Wind:NNW 17 gust 24 mph
70W was always my yardstick for yes/no Boston snow.

Nantucket will really get some licks. Of course everything out there is built to handle. Great time of year to visit. Mainly locals only.

Quoting 110. MAweatherboy1:

As it often is in these storms, Nantucket island will be a fun place to be for the next 24 hours. Already wind gusts near 50mph there. They may get a gust or two close to 70mph, with driving rain. A little further west and it could've been a major snowstorm for eastern MA and RI; instead looks like just eastern ME gets into the heavy snow.


Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

strong system cold wise for so early in the season we are to bottom out at 25 tonight factor in the wind chill may feel like high teens late tonight
Indeed....Manitoba Mauler....Do the Mets have a name for storms barreling out of Saskatchewan.?...Oh, I mention in passing that we may be colder than 25 tonight...Wind is N at 10 mph.
Quoting 121. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Well we got up to high of 61 in Daytona Beach today under clear and crisp skies, and brisk northerly winds ushering in colder, drier air which has resulted in a fire weather warning issued for our area. Tonight we are supposed to dip down to a low of 43. If the winds stay up we might not meet max radiational cooling, still though the wind chills will make it feel colder. Anyways no complains here I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts here in FL. these cold snaps don't usually last long a day or two and the temps. rebound, a far cry from what is going to happen in the Northeast, especially Maine where over 2 feet of snow is not out of the realm of possibility.


best chance of acc snows



Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
this nor'easter is New England only Maine for heavy snow!!
From the NWS San Francisco Facebook page:

These before-and-after images were taken near the Kirkwood Ski Resort by one of our meteorologists.

Quoting 120. PedleyCA:

Florida 24, Georgia 7(1:44 left in 3rd)


Happiness: Achieved
Oh well, I tried. I guess the images don't transfer to this format. Anyway, there are a pair of photos, one on Oct.31, the other Nov.1. Oct.31, bone dry mountain forest. Next day, same site, covered in snow. We got decent rains down here near sea level. Normal rainy season development so far. Big difference is the above normal SSTs which are persisting.
Quoting 125. hydrus:

Indeed....Manitoba Mauler....Do the Mets have a name for storms barreling out of Saskatchewan.?...Oh, I mention in passing that we may be colder than 25 tonight...Wind is N at 10 mph.
ya same thing its a clipper or mauler or Prairies express
Quoting 129. JrWeathermanFL:



Happiness: Achieved



Now 31-13...
Really enjoying the low temps and humidity today in SW Louisiana. Gumbo and Potato Salad for tonight's meal !
update!!! Snow Timing
Sunday's Forecast
Given the expected intensity of a southward plunge of the jet stream and the magnitude and depth of cold air pulled with it, we're not simply talking about chilly rain showers, but also accumulating snow for some as well as the first flakes of the season for others.

- Saturday night: Snow will slowly wind down over the Appalachians from east Tennessee, western North Carolina to West Virginia. Snow will intensify in parts of northern New England.

- Sunday: Snow, heavy, in parts of northern New England, accompanied by strong winds, tapering off late Sunday night. Some wet snow may also fall in parts of southern New England, primarily in eastern Massachusetts.

Heavy snow and high winds continue Monday in parts of Atlantic Canada, from New Brunswick to Labrador
Quoting 125. hydrus:

Indeed....Manitoba Mauler....Do the Mets have a name for storms barreling out of Saskatchewan.?...Oh, I mention in passing that we may be colder than 25 tonight...Wind is N at 10 mph.
Pretty sure they're called Saskatchewan Screamers.
137. vis0
CREDIT::NOAA, presented through University of Washington.
TYPE:Water vapour(clr4)
D&T::on animation

i don't think WxU allows for individual "stretching" of youtube vids, therefore what might play is the default in a LONG youtube flash display.

Winds currently gusting over 50mph in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. Expect conditions to continue to only get worse as the storm intensifies.
Link
Quoting 127. hurricanes2018:

this nor'easter is New England only Maine for heavy snow!!


It's going to be well to the east or else other places throughout the east coast would get more snow.
Quoting 138. stormy2008:

Winds currently gusting over 50mph in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. Expect conditions to continue to only get worse as the storm intensifies.

Winds currently gusting over 50mph maybe over 60 mph by morning
Accumulating snow: Appalachians from West Virginia to east Tennessee, western North Carolina and northern New England. A few areas of the Appalachians will pick up over 12 inches of snow. Totals over 12 inches are likely in parts of Maine (northern or eastern).

(FORECAST: Great Smoky Mountains N.P. | Shenandoah N.P.)

Also, with low pressure intensifying off the Eastern seaboard this weekend, the combination of strong winds and wet snow accumulations may lead to some power outages and downed trees/tree limbs in parts of the Appalachians and northern New England.

Even areas not seeing snow may experience wind gusts over 40 mph with power outages and downed tree limbs possible through Sunday.
Quoting 115. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Which means it'll be getting pitch black by 4:30 instead of 5:30 now. Not worth the extra hour of sleep AT ALL :P
lake effect snow now setting up off southern side of lower eastern grt lakes

Quoting 143. Huracan94:


Which means it'll be getting pitch black by 4:30 instead of 5:30 now. Not worth the extra hour of sleep AT ALL :P
I know I don't like the early dark either o well it means winter she be coming soon

I wouldn't be surprised one bit if Nuri reaches cat 5 status. She is already well ahead of schedule intensity wise.
Quoting 145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I know I don't like the early dark either o well it means winter she be coming soon


Look at it this way, KEEP. With 1 hour less daylight, it won't warm the earth as fast.
TXPQ24 KNES 012125
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NURI)

B. 01/2032Z

C. 15.2N

D. 132.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSR2/SSMI/TMI/SSMIS/GMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEFINED WITH SMALLISH EYE THAT JUST FORMED WITHIN THE
PAST FEW IMAGES. USING EYE SCENE TYPE GIVES A COLD MEDIUM GRAY EMBEDDED
TEMPERATURE FOR AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.5 WITH A WHITE EYE AND A COLD DARK
GRAY RING GIVING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF -0.5 FOR A FINAL DT OF 6.0. MET IS
4.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PT IS 5.0.
FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH THE AVERAGE 6HR T-NO.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/1615Z 14.7N 133.2E AMSR2
01/1759Z 14.9N 133.1E SSMI
01/1900Z 14.9N 133.1E TMI
01/1922Z 15.0N 133.0E SSMIS
01/1951Z 15.0N 133.0E GMI


...LIDDICK
Quoting 147. Grothar:



Look at it this way, KEEP. With 1 hour less daylight, it won't warm the earth as fast.
give it up u
TXPZ21 KNES 011809
TCSENP

A. 21E (VANCE)

B. 01/1745Z

C. 9.7N

D. 103.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON SHEAR MATRIX WITH CIRCILARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES, NEAR OR UNDER OVERCAST, SMALL SIZE. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
Sun is up over Nuri:



Eye is clearing out nicely. Will be interesting to see what the 00z update is on intensity and what the JTWC's forecast will be like in their 3z update.
Is that an eye

as of Friday
Quoting 154. Grothar:

Is that an eye


where is taz he has to say it
Quoting 157. Grothar:


quite the little spin top
Quoting 156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as of Friday

Looks like December is gonna get stormy and cold fast, ya think?
In answer to hydrus comment #125, Cadillac Michigan TV 9and10 Met Bill Spencer used to call such a storm a Saskatchewan Screamer.
NWS, Wilmington, NC..

latest 3pm update

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WINDY AND CHILLY WITH SHOWERS INTO THIS
EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GRAUPEL OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN WITH
THE SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
...PRIMARILY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM W TO E DURING THE MID AND
LATE EVE AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS.
SW Caribbean has lots of convection tonight, front has stalled over the Caymans for now, could get 1-2 more TS before the season ends, But if we saw the last one , wouldn't surprise me at all! Enjoying the cooler temps for now . :)


wow!!
Quoting 163. stormpetrol:

SW Caribbean has lots of convection tonight, front has stalled over the Caymans for now, could get 1-2 more TS before the season ends, But if we saw the last one , wouldn't surprise me at all! Enjoying the cooler temps for now . :)


I agree...I say two more named storms......If not, i.ll eat the blackbird.....it dont mean nuthin ta me..:)..My best typable New York accent..

Quoting 161. LakeAlfredian:

In answer to hydrus comment #125, Cadillac Michigan TV 9and10 Met Bill Spencer used to call such a storm a Saskatchewan Screamer.
Saskatchewan Screamer....sounds vicious....Maybe i,ll chase one..:)
Quoting stormpetrol:
SW Caribbean has lots of convection tonight, front has stalled over the Caymans for now, could get 1-2 more TS before the season ends, But if we saw the last one , wouldn't surprise me at all! Enjoying the cooler temps for now . :)


Agreed

AOI in the SW Carib starting to rotate

Vort in all level are decent and shear over the area not that bad however not that great nether

It will be interesting
Quoting 158. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

where is taz he has to say it



LOL
Evening all. Been reading some of the interesting comments about the record snow in the Piedmont area....

Meanwhile it's been a super day here, albeit rather windy, with a glorious sunset due to clear atmospheric conditions for much of the day. So far no rain from the front.... though I suppose overnight is a better time for us to expect whatever precipitation may fall....
Nuri up to 90kts (up 15kts since the 18z update) as of the 00z update:

20W NURI 141102 0000 15.5N 132.8E WPAC 90 956

I think we'll have ourselves a strong category 4/possible category 5 storm sometime later tomorrow.
172. flsky
I'm trying to think of what clocks I have to set back. Everything is automatic these days.
Quoting 143. Huracan94:


Which means it'll be getting pitch black by 4:30 instead of 5:30 now. Not worth the extra hour of sleep AT ALL :P
Quoting 108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

somewhere over the rainbow who knows likely a random picture taken from a web search
He posted it to his wunderphotos, so he may have some info up about where the pic was taken.... click on the photos&video tab at the top of the page to get to wunderphotos.
Quoting 70. PedleyCA:



Really, who taught these people to spell. Spell Check is not your friend, Try, the Signal Corp


jeepers give em a break - the am discussion comes out 3am - 5am.



thunder powers- ACTIVATE!!!!!!!!!
east coast major winter storm powers- ACTIVATE!!!!!
High Wind powers-ACTIVATE!!!!!
Houston forecast discussion:

LOW HUMIDITIES AND DIMINISHING E TO NE WINDS.
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR EXPECT A FEW COLD SPOTS TO RADIATIVELY COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS. IF WINDS CAN STAY CALM AT THE SURFACE...NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE PATCHES OF FROST UNDER THESE CONDITIONS AS SKIN TEMP DROPS TO FREEZING WITH 2 METER TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
Quoting 110. MAweatherboy1:

As it often is in these storms, Nantucket island will be a fun place to be for the next 24 hours. Already wind gusts near 50mph there. They may get a gust or two close to 70mph, with driving rain. A little further west and it could've been a major snowstorm for eastern MA and RI; instead looks like just eastern ME gets into the heavy snow.


Any snow at all in the Plymouth area of MA? I'm thinking east of I-95....
Quoting 127. hurricanes2018:
this nor'easter is New England only Maine for heavy snow!!
Did you get snow at your place, J?


... Looks like our rain chances in the NW Bahamas are pretty much over with this one.

I'm still trying to figure out how much snow / ice there will be along the sea coastal areas of MA between now and Monday....
This thing is about to go absolutely nuts, imo.

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
54 mins ·

Just how unusual was the strong upper level low that moved across South Carolina today? 500 millibar heights were 300 meters below normal and 850 mb temperatures were 15 degrees C below normal for early November in South Carolina. That's five to six standard deviations from normal and represents an event that is extraordinarily rare. The earliest snow in Columbia, SC's history also occurred today beating the old record by eight days.

This image is from the PSU-NWS collaborative website at http://eyewall.met.psu.edu
Quoting 178. CybrTeddy:

This thing is about to go absolutely nuts, imo.



I'd have to agree...

Quoting 172. flsky:

I'm trying to think of what clocks I have to set back. Everything is automatic these days.



We don't have DST here in Cayman but it has always confused me why they turn clocks back in the fall. Why make it darker earlier? Why not turn the clocks ahead in the fall which would mean getting up earlier (when it is probably still dark in a lot of areas depending on your work schedule) but at least you would have the extra daylight in the evening? Then as the days get longer in the spring turn them back? Wouldn't that make more sense? Forgive me for being ignorant on this matter as I said we have never had to deal with it here with the exception of tv channel listing time changes.

Quoting 62901IL:
I wish I was getting snow...






Places that have had snow the night before Halloween, and had snow cover the past two days, got down to single digits this morning.

7 degrees in Manitowish Waters, WI
9 in Land O'Lakes, WI
9 in Glidden, WI

-1 shows up in Watersmeet, MI, but that was flagged as 'caution' likely an anomaly or error.

Average low temp for today's date in these areas is 30 degrees. I grabbed a screenshot from the min temps since midnight:

Quoting 178. CybrTeddy:

This thing is about to go absolutely nuts, imo.




Already is!
Quoting 179. ncstorm:

US National Weather Service Wilmington NC
54 mins ·

Just how unusual was the strong upper level low that moved across South Carolina today? 500 millibar heights were 300 meters below normal and 850 mb temperatures were 15 degrees C below normal for early November in South Carolina. That's five to six standard deviations from normal and represents an event that is extraordinarily rare. The earliest snow in Columbia, SC's history also occurred today beating the old record by eight days.

This image is from the PSU-NWS collaborative website at http://eyewall.met.psu.edu
Hey, nc... is it stlll raining by you?
Quoting 181. Saltydogbwi1:



We don't have DST here in Cayman but it has always confused me why they turn clocks back in the fall. Why make it darker earlier? Why not turn the clocks ahead in the fall which would mean getting up earlier (when it is probably still dark in a lot of areas depending on your work schedule) but at least you would have the extra daylight in the evening? Then as the days get longer in the spring turn them back? Wouldn't that make more sense? Forgive me for being ignorant on this matter as I said we have never had to deal with it here with the exception of tv channel listing time changes.


Are you kidding? I am so glad to have that light in the morning. I usually end up going home in the dark no matter what, so an earlier hour of afternoon darkness means nothing to me. I'd rather we didn't have to deal with DST here, myself.... :o/
Quoting 171. Envoirment:

Nuri up to 90kts (up 15kts since the 18z update) as of the 00z update:

20W NURI 141102 0000 15.5N 132.8E WPAC 90 956

I think we'll have ourselves a strong category 4/possible category 5 storm sometime later tomorrow.


Been bumped up to 95kts:

20W NURI 141102 0000 15.5N 132.8E WPAC 95 952

Based on current trends, I'm going to say that Nuri will peak at 140-145kts.
Quoting 181. Saltydogbwi1:



We don't have DST here in Cayman but it has always confused me why they turn clocks back in the fall. Why make it darker earlier? Why not turn the clocks ahead in the fall which would mean getting up earlier (when it is probably still dark in a lot of areas depending on your work schedule) but at least you would have the extra daylight in the evening? Then as the days get longer in the spring turn them back? Wouldn't that make more sense? Forgive me for being ignorant on this matter as I said we have never had to deal with it here with the exception of tv channel listing time changes.




One problem with turning or leaving the clocks ahead in the fall is that it stays dark in the morning for longer. This was actually tried in mid January 1974 in the U.S. to save energy and it caused problems. One big one was that kids went to school in full dark since sunrise isn't till 8:15 to 8:30 or so in the morning. This caused more accidents. The U.S went back to February setting forward to DST the next year, 1975 and to the first week in April the following year to avoid the darkness risk to schoolkids. I remember going to school on my bike (with a light) in pitch black for about six weeks from mid January to early March 1974.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NURI (1420)
9:00 AM JST November 2 2014
==============================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nuri (950 hPa) located at 15.4N 132.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 18.0N 132.1E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.2N 134.4E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Okinotori shima waters
72 HRS: 22.7N 136.0E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea South Of Japan
Quoting 185. BahaHurican:

Are you kidding? I am so glad to have that light in the morning. I usually end up going home in the dark no matter what, so an earlier hour of afternoon darkness means nothing to me. I'd rather we didn't have to deal with DST here, myself.... :o/


The Government here is conducting surveys on whether or not to implement DST here......Many many people are against it. My feeling is we have done without it this long why try to implement something that has cause so much controversy in other places :p .... Weather changed here today. Nice Northerly breezes moved in around midday as the cold front approached the NW Caribbean. Looks like we are in for a few days of breezy conditions.
Quoting BahaHurican:
He posted it to his wunderphotos, so he may have some info up about where the pic was taken.... click on the photos&video tab at the top of the page to get to wunderphotos.
Good suggestion. It says Fayeteville WV. I thought it was somewhere around Boston, where he claims to be.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


The Government here is conducting surveys on whether or not to implement DST here......Many many people are against it. My feeling is we have done without it this long why try to implement something that has cause so much controversy in other places :p .... Weather changed here today. Nice Northerly breezes moved in around midday as the cold front approached the NW Caribbean. Looks like we are in for a few days of breezy conditions.
I suspect the issue is more for tourists who are coming from places that have DST. They not only have to change times zone, but not having DST means that much more confusion. I agree with you. The worldwide confusion caused by DST, especially when it starts and stops on different dates in different parts of the world, is not offset by its supposed benefits.
194. JRRP


Quoting JRRP:


It will cause high clouds at your place in exactly 11 days. :-)
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 959.0mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.9 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
This is my November temperature outlook. I'm not a Photoshop pro, but you get the idea. :)

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON PAENG
10:30 AM PhST November 2 2014
=============================
typhoon PAENG has intensified further as it continues to move over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Paeng [NURI] (963 hPa) located at 15.6N 132.7E or 1,190 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

PAENG will continue to enhance northeasterly winds over the eastern seaboard of Luzon, Visayas and of Mindanao resulting to rough to very rough sea conditions over the aforementioned areas. Fisher folks and those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 5 PM Public Weather Forecast and the next bulletin at 11 PM today.
http://www.nbc12.com/story/27182016/november-snow-i n-the-midlands-yes?clienttype=generic&mobilecgbypa ss
200. beell
Quoting 197. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is my November temperature outlook. I'm not a Photoshop pro, but you get the idea. :)




I'm sorry, this is all I can think of...I think the resemblance is remarkable.



(A Belted Galloway or an "Oreo" if you're curious)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NURI (1420)
12:00 PM JST November 2 2014
==============================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nuri (940 hPa) located at 15.8N 132.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 18.4N 132.6E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 200. beell:



I'm sorry, this is all I can think of...I think the resemblance is remarkable.



(A Belted Galloway or an "Oreo" if you're curious)

More accurate than the Dairy cow.
Quoting 195. sar2401:

It will cause high clouds at your place in exactly 11 days. :-)
That's what I want to see in this room! Prediction with an air of conviction. Right on. You're pretty hep for a hodad.
And I thought they were some kind of tire.

"The Belted Galloway is a heritage beef breed of cattle originating from Galloway in the west side of southern Scotland, adapted to living on the poor upland pastures and windswept moorlands of the region." Wikipedia
XPQ24 KNES 020317
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NURI)

B. 02/0232Z

C. 15.8N

D. 132.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS RESULTED
IN A MET OF 5.0 AND A PT OF 5.5. DG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED
BY...CMG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE DT CALCULATED EACH HOUR FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS
ENDING AT 0232Z WAS 6.5. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE FT AND JUSTIFIES
BREAKING ALL CONSTRAINTS
206. beell
Quoting 204. bappit:

And I thought they were some kind of tire.

"The Belted Galloway is a heritage beef breed of cattle originating from Galloway in the west side of southern Scotland, adapted to living on the poor upland pastures and windswept moorlands of the region." Wikipedia


Whadda' ya call a cow with two legs?
"Lean beef"

No legs?
"Ground beef"

*self imposed ban in effect*
Dang, that ULL in southeast was insane.

Ok, so me and couple of buddies went up to Carvers Gap on Roan Mountain (my second visit in 24 hours span) around 2 pm and we saw mostly 2" of snow through Burnsville and Spruce Pines on way up. It wasn't until we hit 5,000 feet when road turned frozen solid and we had to climb up slowly until we reached Carvers Gap. Conditions was little intense up there with winds gusting around 40-45 mph and temperature in upper teens (therefore, wind chill was around zero). We decided to hike up to Round Bald on Appalachian Trail in near-blizzard conditions and we were blasted by snow and winds continuous nearly the whole hike since the bald was exposed to northwest. Rime ice was forming on our stuff including my Kestrel in which I used to record 39.5 mph gust at highest. The entire hike snow was mostly only few inches but that's because these strong winds were blowing away snow into drifts of 2-3 feet. Once we got back to our car, we went to Sam's Gap, and there, we measured 4-6 inches of snow. That's basically the summary of our trip today.

First four was at Carvers Gap/Round Bald and last two was at Sam's Gap:













And here's one from UNCA campus this morning:

Quoting 178. CybrTeddy:

This thing is about to go absolutely nuts, imo.




Could be responsible for major cold streak in two weeks? I mean, Ana's energy is somewhat responsible for today's epic ULL I think...


remnants of Nuri next weekend..
Quoting 206. beell:



Whadda' ya call a cow with two legs?
"Lean beef"

No legs?
"Ground beef"

*self imposed ban in effect*

What do you call a Charolais in Venezuela? The running of the bulls at you in the wilderness. They will kill you. Best to eat them first. This front is going deep, but it will suck up the Baha moisture and the never ending storm in it's departure.
Fair
46°F
8°C
Humidity71%
Wind SpeedNW 5 mph
Barometer30.16 in (1021.3 mb)
Dewpoint37°F (3°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill44°F (7°C)
Last Update on 1 Nov 11:53 pm EST

Current conditions at
Daytona Beach International Airport (KDAB)
Lat: 29.18°N Lon: 81.05°W Elev: 29ft.
More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Daytona Beach FL
7 Day Forecast





Winds steadily decreasing as the High shifts over top.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Dang, that ULL in southeast was insane.

Ok, so me and couple of buddies went up to Carvers Gap on Roan Mountain (my second visit in 24 hours span) around 2 pm and we saw mostly 2" of snow through Burnsville and Spruce Pines on way up. It wasn't until we hit 5,000 feet when road turned frozen solid and we had to climb up slowly until we reached Carvers Gap. Conditions was little intense up there with winds gusting around 40-45 mph and temperature in upper teens (therefore, wind chill was around zero). We decided to hike up to Round Bald on Appalachian Trail in near-blizzard conditions and we were blasted by snow and winds continuous nearly the whole hike since the bald was exposed to northwest. Rime ice was forming on our stuff including my Kestrel in which I used to record 39.5 mph gust at highest. The entire hike snow was mostly only few inches but that's because these strong winds were blowing away snow into drifts of 2-3 feet. Once we got back to our car, we went to Sam's Gap, and there, we measured 4-6 inches of snow. That's basically the summary of our trip today.

First four was at Carvers Gap/Round Bald and last two was at Sam's Gap:













And here's one from UNCA campus this morning:

Looks like it was much more pleasant at the college. :-)
Quoting Pallis1:
That's what I want to see in this room! Prediction with an air of conviction. Right on. You're pretty hep for a hodad.
It's really more like 11.3 days but I like round numbers...
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Fair
46°F
8°C
Humidity71%
Wind SpeedNW 5 mph
Barometer30.16 in (1021.3 mb)
Dewpoint37°F (3°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill44°F (7°C)
Last Update on 1 Nov 11:53 pm EST

Current conditions at
Daytona Beach International Airport (KDAB)
Lat: 29.18°N Lon: 81.05°W Elev: 29ft.
More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Daytona Beach FL
7 Day Forecast





Winds steadily decreasing as the High shifts over top.
Temperature here is 39 with a dewpoint of 34. The winds still blowing 5-10 mph from the ENE so, unless it dies down, I doubt we'll see below freezing. Of course, the night is one hour longer, so maybe that will make it colder. :-)
Quoting 211. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Fair
46°F
8°C
Humidity71%
Wind SpeedNW 5 mph
Barometer30.16 in (1021.3 mb)
Dewpoint37°F (3°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill44°F (7°C)
Last Update on 1 Nov 11:53 pm EST

Current conditions at
Daytona Beach International Airport (KDAB)
Lat: 29.18°N Lon: 81.05°W Elev: 29ft.
More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Daytona Beach FL
7 Day Forecast





Winds steadily decreasing as the High shifts over top.
At least it will bring in big groupers and lots of stone crabs. We have to think positive even though the weather is miserable. Started smoking mullet this morning and put on a flannel before the sun went down. It will blow through, and then we will be back in the water. That is real cold for Key West this time of year. Marine salvage guys will do good this winter. You have to be happy for someone's success.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my November temperature outlook. I'm not a Photoshop pro, but you get the idea. :)

On the bright side, at least I don't live in a blue state...
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 AM EST Sunday 2 November 2014




Condition:Mainly Clear
Pressure:30.3 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:30.2°F
Dewpoint:24.1°F
Humidity:78%
Wind:NNW 16 gust 23 mph
Wind Chill: 19
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Wait a minute...didn't you post that same map an hour ago? Welcome back to standard time. :-)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NURI (1420)
15:00 PM JST November 2 2014
==============================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nuri (930 hPa) located at 16.3N 132.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 18.8N 133.0E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.3N 135.5E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Okinotori shima waters
72 HRS: 23.7N 136.4E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea South Of Japan
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 2 2014
======================================

A Low Pressure Area would develop over southeastern Bay of Bengal and neighborhood around November 4th..
What would life be without change? Think that's why I'm drawn to weather (and surfing).

Quoting 215. Pallis1:

At least it will bring in big groupers and lots of stone crabs. We have to think positive even though the weather is miserable. Started smoking mullet this morning and put on a flannel before the sun went down. It will blow through, and then we will be back in the water. That is real cold for Key West this time of year. Marine salvage guys will do good this winter. You have to be happy for someone's success.
Good morning and happy Standard time to those who changed the clocks.

Plenty of rain is expected in the NE Caribbean islands for most of this week as a deep cutoff low forms in DR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SUN NOV 2 2014


.DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND MON AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. 00Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING DEEPER AND
MORE EWD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW FOR EARLY NOV
AND IS SLATED TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLOODING. THE GUIDANCE THE PAST 24-48 HRS HAS BEEN
TRENDING OVERALL WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING RAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WED EVENING. THE 0-6KM
WIND FLOW WILL BE STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING TRAINING
AND REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS IS
LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW FOR MID WEEK
IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT INCREASES AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
MORE OMINOUS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN
ON THURSDAY BUT PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD GUARANTEES THAT
THE WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT SAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
I'm a pretty deep sleeper, but one of these gusts woke me up this morning:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...STRONG WINDS TODAY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND...NEW
YORK CITY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...

CTZ005>008-NYZ072>075-176>179-022300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.141102T1100Z-141102T2300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY...AND INTERIOR
CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...TODAY.

* IMPACTS...SOME TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES MIGHT FALL ONTO POWER
LINES CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.
Tappan Zee always "fun" when windy like this...especially in a soft top Jeep.

Quoting 224. LongIslandBeaches:

I'm a pretty deep sleeper, but one of these gusts woke me up this morning:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...STRONG WINDS TODAY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND...NEW
YORK CITY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...

CTZ005>008-NYZ072>075-176>179-022300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.141102T1100Z-141102T2300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
411 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY...AND INTERIOR
CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...TODAY.

* IMPACTS...SOME TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES MIGHT FALL ONTO POWER
LINES CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT ON ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES.
Quoting 225. HaoleboySurfEC:

Tappan Zee always "fun" when windy like this...especially in a soft top Jeep.




A bit like Gallopin' Gertie..

Link
Fort Myers - Record low is 49

Waiting to find out the official low for the night.
Temperatures range from 42-48 across the area.
At 5:58am the temp was 48 at the official reporting station in the city.



NICE!!!!!!!!

Miami, FL
6:16 AM EST on November 02, 2014 (GMT -0500) Falls Area
Updated 3 min ago


Clear
48.7 °F
Feels Like 49 °F
N0.0
Wind Variable
Today is forecast to be COOLER than yesterday.

Today
High 73 | Low 58 °F
0% Chance of Precip.
Yesterday
High 79.3 | Low 56.1 °F
Precip. 0 in
Sun & Moon 6:30 am 5:39 pm
Waxing Gibbous, 76% visible
Pressure 30.19 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Clear
Windchill 49 °F
Dew Point 44 °F
Humidity 82%
Rainfall 0.00 in
Snow Depth Not available.
UV 0 out of 12
Pollen 3.60 out of 12
Air Quality Not available.
Flu Activity Not available.
Quoting 214. sar2401:

Temperature here is 39 with a dewpoint of 34. The winds still blowing 5-10 mph from the ENE so, unless it dies down, I doubt we'll see below freezing. Of course, the night is one hour longer, so maybe that will make it colder. :-)
morning all, 35 outside and I live 4 miles ne of Zephyrhills fl. NICE!!
better than 95 and humid
wind gust to 65 mph this morning in boston
Good Morning.





Wow, so now I'm curious now about the Cape and Islands. Also Cape Elizabeth, ME seems to regularly get high gusts as well.

Quoting 230. hurricanes2018:

wind gust to 65 mph this morning in boston
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 020826
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST SUN NOV 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY. DEEP CUTOFF
LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE DOM REP TUE NIGHT AND TRACK EWD AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW LOCATED OVER THE CARIB COASTAL
WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND MON AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. 00Z
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING DEEPER AND
MORE EWD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW FOR EARLY NOV
AND IS SLATED TO BRING VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLOODING. THE GUIDANCE THE PAST 24-48 HRS HAS BEEN
TRENDING OVERALL WETTER AND STORMIER FOR THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING RAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WED EVENING. THE 0-6KM
WIND FLOW WILL BE STRONG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING TRAINING
AND REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS IS
LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW FOR MID WEEK
IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT INCREASES AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
MORE OMINOUS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN
ON THURSDAY BUT PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD GUARANTEES THAT
THE WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEXT SAT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

:-)))))) Rain :-))))))
Typhoon Nuri

Typhoon Nuri
Last Updated Nov 2, 2014 06 GMT
Location 16.2N 132.7E Movement N
Wind 140 MPH



cat 4 storm



TROPICAL STORM VANCE
Vance may briefly strengthen to a hurricane early in the week. However, increasing wind shear after the system makes the northeast turn may weaken it after the turn, so it may landfall as a weaker tropical storm, depression, or even remnant low in the week ahead. All these important details remain "to be determined" at this early stage.

Those along the southwest Mexican coast and the southern Baja Peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas, Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlan should monitor the progress of this system for possible impacts next week.

Tropical Storm Vance became the 20th named storm of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, the most number of named storms since 1992.
Another spectacular tropical cyclone in the West Pacific... as usual in explosive deepening cases JTWC is behind on their intensities, they've got it at 120kts, but it's more likely in the 145-150kts range.

gfs a landloving northeaster later this week`
Good day

It's a beautiful 83, feeling like 93, with a few clouds around here on the island this morning.

My morning consisted of wandering around the house trying to figure out what time it was. My phone said 7:30, my computer said 6:30 and my alarm clock said 6:00. There was way too much thinking going on before I had my coffee. Took me a bit to realize that the time had changed over there *points across the ocean* New alarm clock on list of things to pick up today!

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy
Quoting 239. islander101010:
gfs a landfalling northeaster later this week`


Very cold air again late next week into next weekend. With lows back into the 40's across most of FL. I had this forecast out since Summer and I said this Winter could rival that of 1976/1977, 2002/2003, or 2009/2010. All were very cold and wet Winters across FL. So some well say Scott its dry now and my response is just wait several more days as these next set of fronts will deliver atleast some rain across FL.

So I hope people took heed of what happened yesterday with some areas getting 6" of snow just north of Columbia,SC
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's a chilly 32 degrees with a wind chill of 29 in west central Louisiana this morning.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, apple cinnamon oatmeal, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea or Creole coffee. Enjoy!
Intense Typhoon now.. surprise the JTWC is not saying super typhoon yet.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NURI (1420)
21:00 PM JST November 2 2014
==============================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nuri (910 hPa) located at 17.2N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 19.6N 133.6E - 105 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 22.5N 136.0E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 25.4N 136.9E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea South Of Japan
Actually old record low was 49 for Fort Myers.

Got down to 48 at Page Field - broke the old record.

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KOCF.html 34° in Ocala this morning!
Next chance of rain in my area will be Friday.
Rain is needed badly.


Thailand Meteorological Department (NWP)

Wow...and it's still forecast to get stronger too. Could shoot for 175+ before hitting less favorable conditions or an EWRC.
Nuri's T-score getting close to an 8..



wow big storm off the coast of the northeast some winds over 80 mph in the water!!
From our local Met...

These are all new official record low temperatures. West Palm 49, Vero Beach 41, Ft. Pierce 40, Stuart 46, Miami 52, Orlando 44.
Quoting 191. Saltydogbwi1:



The Government here is conducting surveys on whether or not to implement DST here......Many many people are against it. My feeling is we have done without it this long why try to implement something that has cause so much controversy in other places :p .... Weather changed here today. Nice Northerly breezes moved in around midday as the cold front approached the NW Caribbean. Looks like we are in for a few days of breezy conditions.

IMO if you don't already have it, I can't see why you need it, especially in the tropics where the impact is relatively negligible. In our case, the advantage for us is that it keeps our time aligned with the US, which is only 50 miles away from here at one point, and which has also been our largest tourist market over the years. Additionally, only 1/2 of The Bahamas is in geographical tropics, so those of us in the northern extremes of the archipelago do experience some serious impacts from the change. However, if we were considering changing to it right now, I think I'd be one of the people against it.
Good morning everybody, btw .... I was up bright and [ahem] early this morning... lol ...
Quoting 216. sar2401:

On the bright side, at least I don't live in a blue state...
Or a red one, for that matter.... lol ...
Quoting 240. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good day

It's a beautiful 83, feeling like 93, with a few clouds around here on the island this morning.

My morning consisted of wandering around the house trying to figure out what time it was. My phone said 7:30, my computer said 6:30 and my alarm clock said 6:00. There was way too much thinking going on before I had my coffee. Took me a bit to realize that the time had changed over there *points across the ocean* New alarm clock on list of things to pick up today!

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy
Morning Lindy.... I woke up at 6 a.m. ... .which i NEVER do on Sunday if I can avoid it... and I felt fully refreshed. ... the sun was shining!!! I do love EST .... lol .... I think this will be one of the better Sundays....
It's a good thing Nuri is far from land, because this is probably the strongest storm we've seen since Haiyan a year ago. 14C eye countered with eyewall convection cooler than -80C. 160kt?

Quoting 252. BahaHurican:

IMO if you don't already have it, I can't see why you need it, especially in the tropics where the impact is relatively negligible. In our case, the advantage for us is that it keeps our time aligned with the US, which is only 50 miles away from here at one point, and which has also been our largest tourist market over the years. Additionally, only 1/2 of The Bahamas is in geographical tropics, so those of us in the northern extremes of the archipelago do experience some serious impacts from the change. However, if we were considering changing to it right now, I think I'd be one of the people against it.


The main reason they are thinking about it is for the very same reason that this is a US tourist destination and it would keep the times aligned. Pretty much all our air arrivals/departures with the exception of Jamaica, Bahamas, Honduras and Cuba comes through US airports.
Quoting 251. GeoffreyWPB:

From our local Met...

These are all new official record low temperatures. West Palm 49, Vero Beach 41, Ft. Pierce 40, Stuart 46, Miami 52, Orlando 44.

That's pretty darned cold for Miami at this time of year.... but it's only 72 here, which is also unusual [though I don't think it's record cold for this time of year] for November 2 .... especially compared to the last 10 -15 years...
Quoting 246. Sfloridacat5:

Next chance of rain in my area will be Friday.
Rain is needed badly.



Looks like these fronts are getting into the habit of coming through on the weekends...which is fine for most but here we like to go offshore and fish on the weekends!! grrr lol
Quoting 255. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's a good thing Nuri is far from land, because this is probably the strongest storm we've seen since Haiyan a year ago. 14C eye countered with eyewall convection cooler than -80C. 160kt?


From sat presentation, looks quite possible. This is a beauty of a storm... luckily it seems unlikely to bring direct impacts to any land locations....
Quoting 256. Saltydogbwi1:



The main reason they are thinking about it is for the very same reason that this is a US tourist destination and it would keep the times aligned. Pretty much all our air arrivals/departures with the exception of Jamaica, Bahamas, Honduras and Cuba comes through US airports.
It would be tough, I admit, having to change time every time one flew to Miami from here ... a 35 minute flight at most. So I can see the" rationale behind that. OTOH, one of the things that contributes to the "exotic" mystique associated with Caribbean locations IS that change in time.... guaranteed to make a visitor feel they are genuinely stepping out of their regular time and place. So there are some advantages as well.

this cold snap down south would have made a good blog topic
Today is the New York City Marathon.

You can watch live coverage on ESPN 2.

tcsnycmarathon
Quoting 262. Grothar:


Cylindrical/disc shape structure.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 263. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Today is the New York City Marathon.

You can watch live coverage on ESPN 2.

tcsnycmarathon



It is such a magnificent day here that Mrs. Grothar and I decided to go jogging. She jogged to the refrigerator and friend some bacon and I jogged to the sliding glass door and opened the screen.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AS INLAND AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...

FLZ016>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161 -022130-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.A.0005.141103T0900Z-141103T1300Z/
GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-
INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-B EN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN -SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...TALLAHASSEE...
SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...SWEETWA TER...
CRAWFORDVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...GEORGETOWN...
FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN. ..EDISON...
LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE.. .SYLVESTER...
ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...DOUGLASV ILLE...BLAKELY...
COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...MOULTRIE.. .ADEL...SPARKS...
NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO... THOMASVILLE...
QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
315 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...LOW TEMPERATURES 29 TO 32 DEGREES.

* DURATION...FREEZING TEMPERATURES UP TO 3 HOURS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
FROST COULD DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

38-GODSEY

Welp, its not everyday you see these this early in the season down here, After mid 30's this morning, another big chill tonight before moderation tomorrow.