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95L Little Threat; TD 21E a Long-Range Threat to Mexico's Pacific Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:22 PM GMT on October 30, 2014

An area of disturbed weather (95L) just north of the Virgin Islands is headed northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 95L has large, sloppy surface circulation and moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is mostly disconnected from the center of the storm by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L has dry air to its west that is likely interfering with development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are warm, about 29°C. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain a high 20 - 30 knots through Saturday night, then increase to 30 - 50 knots beginning on Sunday. These high wind shear values make development conditions marginal through Saturday, then almost impossible beginning on Sunday. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict development of 95L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%. The only land area at risk from 95L is Bermuda.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 95L to the northeast of Puerto Rico on Wednesday afternoon October 29, 2014. The surface circulation center was exposed to view by high wind shear. Image credit: NASA.

Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclone Nilofar getting ripped up by wind shear
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, Cyclone Nilofar has been shredded by high wind shear of 40 - 50 knots. and was a tropical storm with just 50 mph winds at 10 am EDT Thursday. Even higher levels of wind shear, combined with very dry air from the deserts of the Middle East, should cause Nilofar to dissipate on Friday. Nilofar's remnants will be capable of bringing 1 - 2" of rain over the weekend to the Pakistan/India border region, according to the 2 am EDT Thursday run of the HWRF model.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar in the Arabian Sea on Thursday morning, October 30, 2014. At the time, Nilofar was a tropical storm with 55 mph winds, and the low-level circulation had been exposed to view by high wind shear. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Vance forms in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Eastern Pacific on Thursday afternoon. Satellite images show that Vance is in the organizing stages, with a small area of heavy thunderstorms, some solidifying low-level spiral bands, and a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds, characteristic of intensifying tropical storms. The storm is over warm SSTs, near 29°C, but some dry air and moderate wind shear are slowing development. By Saturday, these issues should relent, allowing intensification into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico over the next four days, but our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks--the GFS and European models--forecast that Vance will get pulled to the northeast by a trough of low pressure early next week, and make landfall in Mainland Mexico northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday night. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain low, 5 - 10 knots, though Monday, then ramp up significantly on Monday night and Tuesday as Vance gets caught up in the trough of low pressure that will sling it into Mexico. The higher wind shear should be able to significantly weaken Vance before landfall, making heavy rain the primary threat.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has more on the tropics in a Thursday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doc
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Dr. M.

Thank you DR. M
TD 21E is a long range present to MBY if the 6Z GFS was correct.
Tazmanian, it is just my list and I thought you guys should know.
Thanks Dr. Masters for another great blog!
Just in case you didnt see on the last blog, the storm in the west is WS 1 and the one in the east is WS 2.
So in other words from Dr. M., nothing tropical that matters is ongoing.
What are your guys's predictions for Isais to form? Mine is Nov. 7.
Quoting 9. MahFL:

So in other words from Dr. M., nothing tropical that matters is ongoing.


21E threatening Mexico, and its mid-level remnants riding a cold front over my house is 'nothing'?
I guess the weather news will be strong Fronts now,and maybe this week..temp records in danger of falling

did u guys see the latest discussion for nov 7 looks really cold for south fla looks like same weather as this weekend
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION
TODAY WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD ENABLE SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS NE FL...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND E OF A LINE FROM JAX TO GNV. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING AS VISIBLE IMAGERY
ALREADY SUGGESTS DEEPENING CUMULIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND
AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 RANGE
ACROSS NE FL AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE
STORM AROUND THE PUTNAM/FLAGLER/ST JOHNS COUNTY AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THIS POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPS LOWER THAN PRIOR DAYS AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN AS WELL AS ADDED CLOUD COVER. MINOR TWEAKS TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT OVER NE FL BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/NARRE
GUIDANCE.
96W:



All models develop it. The UKMET/GFS are very agressive, while the Euro not as much. The CMC also develops it. Definitely something to watch the current week. If the GFS/UKMET are right, could potentially see another strong system which could threaten The Philippines & Taiwan.
Quoting 13. eddye:


did u guys see the latest discussion for nov 7 looks really cold for south fla looks like same weather as this weekend
yes another cold front after the one that's coming this weekend
Thanks Dr. Masters!
largo except weatherunderground and accuweather hasnt put it in their date from the cold air nov 7
i guess their waiting for more runs 2 see if it verriffies



invest 95L will not be any storm anytime soon
Thanks Dr. M! The season may just be about over. I will welcome fall this weekend as lows are in the 40s for us here in FL. Maybe some Appalachian mountain snow? Looks like just a cold rain for most everyone else.
"sloppy circulation"

"sling it into mexico"

you've been spending too much time reading the blogs...you're not sounding professorish :-)


doc...thanx as always.....you're incite and teaching is much appreciated
Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters....
200 year flood hits west Norway towns

Rescue crews and volunteers worked through the night to evacuate hundreds of people and limit damage as Voss, Odda and several other towns suffered the worst floods to hit western Norway in more than a century.

Areas hit included the town of Lærdal, which was partly destroyed by fire less than a year ago.
27. JRRP
Quoting 23. ricderr:

"sloppy circulation"

"sling it into mexico"

you've been spending too much time reading the blogs...you're not sounding professorish :-)


doc...thanx as always.....you're incite and teaching is much appreciated



Too Funny, that should be "Your incite," How is your rain totals so far?
Now this is a welcome sight.

Quoting TimSoCal:
Now this is a welcome sight.



wow, rain! woo hoo.
I cant post images or provide links correctly so you will have to copy and paste..

Brad Panovich a very knowledegable meterologist from Charlotte just put out a youtube video..he isn't in the Appalachians..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v15aKs-BckI&featur e=share
Quoting 28. PedleyCA:


Too Funny, that should be "Your incite," How is your rain totals so far?


"Your insight" works best, unless we're talking riots...
Too Funny, that should be "Your incite," How is your rain totals so far?


lol..."your" correct..........no rain yet....the storm impacting nor cal is supposed to be in our neck of the woods come monday and give us a drop or two
FINALLY!!!! A freeze watch for my area!!!!!!
Theme song: Link
Text:
.FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WATCH COVERS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY.


* TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 26 TO 31 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING NO LATER THAN 10 PM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING BETWEEN 26 AND 32 DEGREES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 9 AM CDT ON
SATURDAY AND 8 AM CST ON SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS WILL BE TWOFOLD. COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DAMAGE SENSITIVE PLANTS LEFT UNCOVERED AND LEFT OUTDOORS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY FROST EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
ALSO DAMAGE PLANTS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ESSENTIALLY END
THE OUTDOOR GROWING SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
Your insight" works best, unless we're talking riots...



lmao.....i guess i just screwed it up royally
yeppers cold here we come
6
Quoting eddye:
yeppers cold here we come

Of course.
Quoting 34. 62901IL:

FINALLY!!!! A freeze watch for my area!!!!!!
Theme song: Link
Text:
.FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WATCH COVERS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY.


* TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM 26 TO 31 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING NO LATER THAN 10 PM CDT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
RANGING BETWEEN 26 AND 32 DEGREES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 9 AM CDT ON
SATURDAY AND 8 AM CST ON SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS WILL BE TWOFOLD. COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL DAMAGE SENSITIVE PLANTS LEFT UNCOVERED AND LEFT OUTDOORS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY FROST EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
ALSO DAMAGE PLANTS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ESSENTIALLY END
THE OUTDOOR GROWING SEASON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.



It's going to be Collllllld!
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


It's going to be Collllllld!

No, we'll be CHILLING IN THE FREEZER!!!!!
Quoting 32. Greg01:



"Your insight" works best, unless we're talking riots...


Very True, thanks for the insight....
Thanks Doc.
A couple things I should throw out to you guys that live in the Southern IL area (including me)
1. Cover your plants\crops.
2. Bring your pets inside.
3. Turn up the heat or turn on the heat.
4. Use extra blankets on your bed.
5. On Halloween, if you go trick or treating, DRESS WARMLY. For example, wear long underwear under your costume.
6. DON'T GO OUT OR STAY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ON HALLOWEEN, OR AFTER 10PM SATURDAY NIGHT. It is okay to go outside during the day on Friday and Saturday, though.
7. We got the first frost of the season today. Very light, but it happened.
Quoting 42. 62901IL:

A couple things I should throw out to you guys that live in the Southern IL area (including me)
1. Cover your plants\crops.
2. Bring your pets inside.
3. Turn up the heat or turn on the heat.
4. Use extra blankets on your bed.
5. On Halloween, if you go trick or treating, DRESS WARMLY. For example, wear long underwear under your costume.
6. DON'T GO OUT OR STAY OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ON HALLOWEEN, OR AFTER 10PM SATURDAY NIGHT. It is okay to go outside during the day on Friday and Saturday, though.
7. We got the first frost of the season today. Very light, but it happened.


Yeah, I also saw a little frost on the ground this morning.
Really warm day today across S.W. Florida. I got hot after about 5 minutes outside after lunch.
I'm really looking forward to the cooler weather this weekend.
Next week we're back up in the 80s here.

Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Yeah, I also saw a little frost on the ground this morning.

Then we're even. Where do you live?
Quoting 45. 62901IL:


Then we're even. Where do you live?


Near St. Louis.
sfloridacat 5 we are geting a strong cold fron ton nov 7 looking at the latest gfs and euro so it wont be warm for long

...SOME SNOW POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...
...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

OVERVIEW...

THE FIRST EPISODE OF WINTER-LIKE WEATHER WILL DESCEND UPON SOUTH-
CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW POTENTIAL...

A BAND OF SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH UP TO ONE INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS.

COLD TEMPERATURES...

SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM 25 TO 30 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED FOR A
FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA. SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING
SEASON.

$$
TWF
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...TX...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO NORTH TX
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL IN
THE STRONGEST CELLS. ACTIVITY MAY BUILD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/30/2014

Brad Panovich @wxbrad · 26m 26 minutes ago

Nice factoid from @NWSGSP 500mb heights will be 5.5 standard deviations below average Saturday. That's a 50 year return type of 500mb low.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1128 AM AST THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WITH FEW
OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER
30/17Z...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER AND
SOUTH THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THIS MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AT TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH 30/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
Quoting 28. PedleyCA:



Too Funny, that should be "Your incite," How is your rain totals so far?
Actually I think he meant "insight", but the good Doc's blogs do incite some pretty strange behavior in the comments section! :-)
Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

.A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR
THE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...
AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON TO ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

ARZ003>007-012>015-021>023-030-302130-
/O.CON.KLZK.FZ.A.0002.141101T0500Z-141101T1400Z/
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NE WTON-POPE-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASH FLAT...BOONEVILLE...BULL SHOALS...
CALICO ROCK...CAVE CITY...CLARKSVILLE...CLINTON...FAIRFIELD BAY...
FLIPPIN...HARDY...HARRISON...HORSESHOE BEND...JASPER...LESLIE...
MAMMOTH SPRING...MARSHALL...MELBOURNE...MOUNTAIN HOME...
MOUNTAIN VIEW...OXFORD...PARIS...RUSSELLVILLE...SUMMIT...VI OLA...
WESTERN GROVE...YELLVILLE
345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* EVENT...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY AND THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF THE WEST.

* AREAS AFFECTED...THE WATCH INCLUDES LOCATIONS FROM CAVE CITY...
CLINTON AND BOONEVILLE NORTHWARD. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED MORE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS IF IT APPEARS FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AND PERSIST FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR OR
TWO.

* IMPACTS...THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL PLANTS AND TENDER
VEGETATION LEFT OUTDOORS WITHOUT PROTECTION. UNPROTECTED WATER
PIPES COULD FREEZE...ESPECIALLY IF LEFT WITHOUT RUNNING A SLOW
STEADY STREAM OF LIQUID.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. IF
THESE CONDITIONS OCCUR...CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION
WOULD BE AFFECTED. FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

&&

$$

59
Quoting eddye:
sfloridacat 5 we are geting a strong cold fron ton nov 7 looking at the latest gfs and euro so it wont be warm for long


Forecast is for temps in the low to mid 80s next week here. So a real quick warm up after this weekend in the 70s.

The next front should arrive around Friday (Nov.7th) for S.Florida. Doesn't look too bad based on the 12z GFS. Temperatures should be in the 70s for southern Florida.
That should be perfect weather.

Quoting 54. Sfloridacat5:



Forecast is for temps in the low to mid 80s next week here. So a real quick warm up after this weekend in the 70s.

The next front should arrive around Friday (Nov.7th) for S.Florida. Doesn't look too bad based on the 12z GFS. Temperatures should be in the 70s for southern Florida.
That should be perfect weather.


this is a classic example of why we get sick this time of year here..one day 46 next day 85 lol
water temps will keep the shoreline communities warmer than inland next few days....
Quoting 55. LargoFl:

this is a classic example of why we get sick this time of year here..one day 46 next day 85 lol
Yep..I caught pneumonia in 2001....Almost killed me.
Quoting 11. EdMahmoud:



21E threatening Mexico, and its mid-level remnants riding a cold front over my house is 'nothing'?


Does your roof leak ?
Any kind of cold weather getting here this weekend is welcomed here in S miami. These readings blow!

Current Conditions Station reported 22 seconds ago
84.9 F
Feels Like 90 F
1.0
mph
Wind from NW
Gusts 7.0 mph
Dew Point: 71 F
Humidity: 63%
Precip Rate: 0.00 in/hr
Precip Accum: 0.00 in
Pressure: 29.94 in
UV:5
Solar: --
Soil Moisture: --
Soil Temp: --
Leaf Wetness: --
sflacat5 how about for orlando

My Brother said he heard 90's forecast on KNX radio yesterday, but I sure don't see that here or on the Los Angeles 7-Day, closest is 85... The rain chance is 40% for Saturday...
Quoting LargoFl:
this is a classic example of why we get sick this time of year here..one day 46 next day 85 lol


When I lived in Oklahoma it was really bad at that.
There would be days when it would be in the 70s and then a "blue norther" would blow through and it would be snowing by the end of the same day.
Colorado is really bad at that. It can be warm outside and then end up snowing later the same day.


Quoting 55. LargoFl:

this is a classic example of why we get sick this time of year here..one day 46 next day 85 lol
Sorry to correct you , temp swings don't make you sick, wash your hands more often, keep them out of your mouth and avoid all the snow birds who bring the flu with them.
Interesting explanation from Manoj Jain an infectious disease physician

cold temperatures caused my blood vessels to vasocontrict — that is, to take blood away from the surface of my skin to the core of the body in order to conserve heat. (Studies from the cold feet study show that even when feet are placed in the cold, the vessels of the nose vasoconstrict.) This led to less blood flow and less protective white cells to the face and nose area and less mucous and further virus replication.

Link
yep
Quoting 67. Sfloridacat5:

Interesting explanation from Manoj Jain an infectious disease physician

cold temperatures caused my blood vessels to vasocontrict — that is, to take blood away from the surface of my skin to the core of the body in order to conserve heat. (Studies from the cold feet study show that even when feet are placed in the cold, the vessels of the nose vasoconstrict.) This led to less blood flow and less protective white cells to the face and nose area and less mucous and further virus replication.

Link
There are 10 to 1 links that say no its a myth, so open a door than put your hands in your mouth or foot.
Quoting 55. LargoFl:
this is a classic example of why we get sick this time of year here..one day 46 next day 85 lol


It's got nothing to do with getting sick... Germs, like rhinoviruses and influenza make you sick, not the hot / cold changes in temps.....
Quoting 62. GeoffreyWPB:

Can the changing temperatures make you sick?


I don't know. But reruns of Roseanne does the trick.
72. vis0
Note to
...Sar0107?, no... Sar
3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937 5105820974944592307816406286?...no
Ah!,. Sar2401. I think most  here on WxU & on my eMail friends on
wxretro know Sar means Sar2401.

Thank you for taking the time to
reply as even those that use this blog to 'hate n break' should thank
those that take their time to reply. 

By bubbling i mean
pre-(grothar) blobbing, my apology if some thought it meant bubbling as
in cooking where everything is active, it just means clouds are forming
in a pre blob manner, a bunch of clouds here bunch there etc.. 

As
to GoMx, you are 100%
(not 110% nor 200% those numbers are reserved for
sports players on drugs or on "cloud 9" where ever that is, maybe its next after cloud 
correct in that of  the 4 or 5 areas that can
spawn a TDgen/TSgen towards the E/S/SE U.S. of A,  GoMx is the most
INactive/not active.
 

Back to trolling and finding out is this CAPTAIN
TROUGH is a good or bad  guy (good when he saves the east coast bad if
it...he leads to an east coast blow out storm?  and COMMANDER RIDGE is
she another hero.

 its tyme 4me to go "up!, up!, down!  to the side!!! and lower caaase! " (trolling).
Quoting 67. Sfloridacat5:

Interesting explanation from Manoj Jain an infectious disease physician

cold temperatures caused my blood vessels to vasocontrict — that is, to take blood away from the surface of my skin to the core of the body in order to conserve heat. (Studies from the cold feet study show that even when feet are placed in the cold, the vessels of the nose vasoconstrict.) This led to less blood flow and less protective white cells to the face and nose area and less mucous and further virus replication.

Link

FINALLY! a debate worthy of the blog's resources! Pendulumic temperature oscillation immunal suppression syndrome...
Residents of Brazil believe that standing in front of an open refrigerator door will cause one to have a cold the next day. So much for germs.
75. JRRP
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
Quoting 74. SNOWARMER:

Residents of Brazil believe that standing in front of an open refrigerator door will cause one to have a cold the next day. So much for germs.


LOL. Also, don't go swimming after eating lunch!
Wouldnt surprise me to see a named storm in November..



Quoting 76. capeflorida:



LOL. Also, don't go swimming after eating lunch!


Lol, good ones, I'm well aware of these ;)
Quoting 75. JRRP:

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

I'm not even sure why the NHC bothered with half of these disturbances this year.
Wouldnt surprise me to see a named storm in November..



come on hydrus...the experts have told us since august the atlantic is dead
Quoting 80. ricderr:

Wouldnt surprise me to see a named storm in November..



come on hydrus...the experts have told us since august the atlantic is dead


I see we are bored in the wife's office huh? Anyways at the time the Atlantic was dead and stayed that way until October. I figured I would just come on and clear the air.
Quoting 58. hydrus:

Yep..I caught pneumonia in 2001....Almost killed me.
Ive been real lucky in my life Hydrus,never got that,hope I never do whew
Euro still showing pressures lowering in the Caribbean come next week.



Euro is trying to close off a low in the SE Bahamas. Maybe an area to watch next week.



I see we are bored in the wife's office huh?


just like your forecasts...wrong again.....i'm on the phone with BCBS.......
I always assumed, lowering the body temp,opened you up to colds etc..yes I know..germs and virus, but, if your immune system shuts down or weakens, your open season for colds and flu etc...and this does happen when your in freezing weather.especially if your body hasn't grown used to the colder temps yet...87 today 40 tomorrow 85 the next..your body doesn't know how to react...doc's can refute this but..i know better thru life's experiences
Quoting 75. JRRP:

Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.




Even though they have put the chances at 0%, the reason they have it posted is that a number of the long range models have a system developing to the east of the Bahamas shortly. The EURO even has had it. There is an expected pressure drop which should take place. It is just an area that is being monitored for possible development and I have been watching it since I saw the original models. It may not even be this system which is currently there.
Quoting 84. ricderr:

I see we are bored in the wife's office huh?


just like your forecasts...wrong again.....i'm on the phone with BCBS.......


I'm surprised you can do both.
Quoting 80. ricderr:

Wouldnt surprise me to see a named storm in November..



come on hydrus...the experts have told us since august the atlantic is dead


You mean the "expert." Stick a fork in it.
stormtrackerscott does it still show the cold air for nov 7 the gfs
well there's the Next cold front for the following weekend..one after another I guess...
I'm surprised you can do both.



once again you were wrong......you're consistant.....but give me another 20 minutes and we're done for the day.....we're off to lunch...and then hit a bucket of balls before picking up the kids from school
You mean the "expert." Stick a fork in it.


"snow in north florida next week"
Quoting 89. eddye:

stormtrackerscott does it still show the cold air for nov 7 the gfs


No eddye, after this cold snap we appear to warm up pretty fast as winds switch to the east the southeast. We could even see a tropical wave move in from the SE per the Euro.

Notice the isobars SE of FL. You can see an inverted trough axis sliding NW.

Quoting 93. ricderr:

You mean the "expert." Stick a fork in it.


"snow in north florida next week"


Who said snow in N FL. That's just ridiculous. South Carolina yes but not N FL.
Quoting 82. LargoFl:

Ive been real lucky in my life Hydrus,never got that,hope I never do whew
Its very deadly...I let it go thinking I could beat it..Once the lungs fill completely its over.
Quoting 86. Grothar:




Even though they have put the chances at 0%, the reason they have it posted is that a number of the long range models have a system developing to the east of the Bahamas shortly. The EURO even has had it. There is an expected pressure drop which should take place. It is just an area that is being monitored for possible development and I have been watching it since I saw the original models. It may not even be this system which is currently there.


Hey Grothar, I have been watching that too, its due to the tropical wave around 50 WEST, combining with an upper level trough, supposed to bring some rain to the islands on Monday. But it interacts with a through causing some lowering of pressures, though I think wind shear will be too high for any type of development, but this season has had surprises "Gonzalo" (cough). So its a must pay attention situation, though I wouldn't get to hyped yet ;)
Maybe just maybe we are entering into a wet pattern here across FL next week as both the Euro & GFS agree on a decent short wave coming in from Texas and a tropical wave moving NW from the Bahamas. Should see some decent rain later next week if this verifies.

Quoting SNOWARMER:
Residents of Brazil believe that standing in front of an open refrigerator door will cause one to have a cold the next day. So much for germs.
Residents of Slovenia believe that any kind of draft causes illness. I was riding in a non-air-conditioned train with an air temperature of about 90 outside and 100 inside, since not one of the windows was down. I thought I was going to pass out, so I lowered the window by my seat. The other people in the car immediately got up and ran to another car. The conductor told me they reported me for causing a draft. I finally convinced him to let me sit in the baggage car, where I could have the door cracked open and not threaten anyone's health.

There are some strange beliefs about what can make you sick.
Very very interesting to say the least.

101. eddye
stormtrackerscott euro and gfs show cold weather for nov 7
Quoting 97. 882MB:



Hey Grothar, I have been watching that too, its due to the tropical wave around 50 WEST, combining with an upper level trough, supposed to bring some rain to the islands on Monday. But it interacts with a through causing some lowering of pressures, though I think wind shear will be too high for any type of development, but this season has had surprises "Gonzalo" (cough). So its a must pay attention situation, though I wouldn't get to hyped yet ;)


Yeah, that's the one. I was just too tired to write it all. I'm going to take my nap now.
Quoting 101. eddye:

stormtrackerscott euro and gfs show cold weather for nov 7


Only this weekend eddye.
Looks like a elongated and wet system potentially for FL. Nice to see the models showing a nice rain maker for FL next week as all of this heat and dry weather has dried things out fast the last couple of weeks.


105. eddye
so your saying for november 7 orlando temps should be in the upper 70 and low in the upper 50
Quoting 85. LargoFl:
I always assumed, lowering the body temp,opened you up to colds etc..yes I know..germs and virus, but, if your immune system shuts down or weakens, your open season for colds and flu etc...and this does happen when your in freezing weather.especially if your body hasn't grown used to the colder temps yet...87 today 40 tomorrow 85 the next..your body doesn't know how to react...doc's can refute this but..i know better thru life's experiences


So what has your immune system shutting down and weaking have to do with fluctuation in temperature. There is no correlation to feezing weather or fluctuating temps and getting sick even if you have a weak immune system. You get sick by getting something from someone else, touching a door knob, elevator button, a pen that many others have used before you, someone sick who's sneezing and coughing around you..... You think that the northers who live in heated houses and go out into fridgid or cold temps (fluctuating temps) get sick because of that - NO. It's germs !!!


Quoting 100. StormTrackerScott:

Very very interesting to say the least.


I thought this was interesting..850 MB chart shows a system ESE of Florida at 144 hrs.

Quoting 73. JNFlori30A:


FINALLY! a debate worthy of the blog's resources! Pendulumic temperature oscillation immunal suppression syndrome...


I'd certainly enjoy that, much more than the bickering that's been going on as of late lol. And also because it'll be a topic in my field! (I'm a 2nd year Biology undergrad).
Quoting 107. hydrus:

I thought this was interesting..850 MB chart shows a system ESE of Florida at 144 hrs.




Yeah moves west then merges with a upper low in the Gulf to form maybe a Sub Tropical system
GEM, Euro, and GFS..

I feel like I have a fever. Can I get 21 paid work days in isolation at home resting, eating pizza, watching cable and using the internet?
I personally don't believe environmental conditions have zero impact on the effectiveness of your immune system. True, viruses, bacteria, germs, parasites, blogs all make you sick, but it is often the strength of your immune system that dictates whether you can effectively fend them off.

I think extreme temperatures and extreme temperature swings compromise an individual's immune system. I have no proof of this. I'm not a doctor. Just opinion from a guy who's worked hard labor jobs in extreme cold and heat.

Quoting 70. FLGatorCaneNut:



It's got nothing to do with getting sick... Germs, like rhinoviruses and influenza make you sick, not the hot / cold changes in temps.....
Tropical Storm Vance isn't particularly well organized, with convection weighted to the north and east due to moderate southwesterly wind shear and some dry air entrainment. A 1634z showed a few wind barbs near 35kt in the northwestern quadrant, however, so this will rightfully be upgraded to a tropical storm at 21z.

This is the first time we've reached the "V" storm in the East Pacific since 1992.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like a elongated and wet system potentially for FL. Nice to see the models showing a nice rain maker for FL next week as all of this heat and dry weather has dried things out fast the last couple of weeks.




Thats 10 days out, we will see. As for the next 7 days, dry as a button for us here in FL except for a few showers moving across the state now. Enjoy all the dryness Scott even though we all know you love wetness.

Quoting 114. hurricanes2018:




I know one thing for sure, that picture isn't from Tampa.
Quoting 111. Sfloridacat5:
I feel like I have a fever. Can I get 21 paid work days in isolation at home resting, eating pizza, watching cable and using the internet?


Don't do that. The body will retaliate for lack of mobility and throw a blood clot and you die.

8-(
"The Blob is strong in this one."

:-)

Quoting 86. Grothar:




Even though they have put the chances at 0%, the reason they have it posted is that a number of the long range models have a system developing to the east of the Bahamas shortly. The EURO even has had it. There is an expected pressure drop which should take place. It is just an area that is being monitored for possible development and I have been watching it since I saw the original models. It may not even be this system which is currently there.
On the general subject of rapid temperature changes ...

Chillblains look nasty. They happen when "cold exposure damages capillary beds in the skin, which in turn causes redness, itching, blisters, and inflammation"

One way to help avoid them is:

"Avoid rapid changes in temperature (from cold to warm)."
It boggles my mind that a few continue to show models 10 days out and act like it's a done deal when they are probably about 10% accurate. I guess being right 10% of the time is acceptable to some.
Quoting 108. Envoirment:



I'd certainly enjoy that, much more than the bickering that's been going on as of late lol. And also because it'll be a topic in my field! (I'm a 2nd year Biology undergrad).
biology is certainly a big field of study.. which direction are you going to head in? Hopefully you can find a treatment for crankybloggeroids...
Quoting 120. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You mean you wouldn't rather threaten to sue the CDC for violating your rights and forcing you to self quarantine?


But the CDC isn't forcing people into quarantine; it's run by intelligent and highly knowledgeable people who know how difficult it is to catch Ebola, and they realize that moronic, knee-jerk reactions such as sealing the borders and forcibly quaranting medical professionals will only server to prolong the current outbreak. No, those idiotic quarantines are being imposed by--let's call a spade a spade--stupid politicians (Cuomo, Christie, LePage) intent on ignoring all expert medical advice and instead grandstanding for their least educated constituents.
Quoting 121. luvtogolf:

It boggles my mind that a few continue to show models 10 days out and act like it's a done deal when they are probably about 10% accurate. I guess being right 10% of the time is acceptable to some.


No one said anything about "set in stone". Most of us post long range models and if you don't like then use the ignore feature. Fact is even local mets talk about long range models but I guess your job is to take that away from this weather blog right. Give it a rest a troll another blog as most don't care for your bickering post on here day in and day out. People on here and I speak for many are tired of it already. Piece!
Quoting 119. bappit:

On the general subject of rapid temperature changes ...

Chillblains look nasty. They happen when "cold exposure damages capillary beds in the skin, which in turn causes redness, itching, blisters, and inflammation"

One way to help avoid them is:

"Avoid rapid changes in temperature (from cold to warm)."
Used to work the frozen food section in a grocery store in SoCal.. talk about repeated rapid temperature changes.. 5 nights a week I'd be in an out of a 10 degree walk in.. stayed healthy other than a sore lower back!

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST THU OCT 30 2014

PRC007-025-029-031-061-063-077-127-129-139-302045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0217.141030T1849Z-141030T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
CAGUAS PR-CANOVANAS PR-GUAYNABO PR-GURABO PR-JUNCOS PR-SAN JUAN PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
249 PM AST THU OCT 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CANOVANAS...GUAYNABO...GURABO...JUNCOS... SAN JUAN...SAN
LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...AGUAS BUENAS AND CAROLINA

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 245 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS OF THE ADVISORY AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6604 1834 6587 1816 6594 1824 6614

$$
Quoting 121. luvtogolf:

It boggles my mind that a few continue to show models 10 days out and act like it's a done deal when they are probably about 10% accurate. I guess being right 10% of the time is acceptable to some.
do you..have anything weather related outside of complaining about what other people post? models 10 days out?...that's on topic in here
Quoting 123. Neapolitan:



But the CDC isn't forcing people into quarantine; it's run by intelligent and highly knowledgeable people who know how difficult it is to catch Ebola, and they realize that moronic, knee-jerk reactions such as sealing the borders and forcibly quaranting medical professionals will only server to prolong the current outbreak. No, those idiotic quarantines are being imposed by--let's call a spade a spade--stupid politicians (Cuomo, Christie, LePage) intent on ignoring all expert medical advice and instead grandstanding for their least educated constituents.

My post was meant to be sarcastic more than anything, speaking about the nurse who is defying orders to remain in her home. I was under the impression that the CDC had quarantined her, but it looks like it was the state instead. Thanks. :)
Quoting 123. Neapolitan:



But the CDC isn't forcing people into quarantine; it's run by intelligent and highly knowledgeable people who know how difficult it is to catch Ebola, and they realize that moronic, knee-jerk reactions such as sealing the borders and forcibly quaranting medical professionals will only server to prolong the current outbreak. No, those idiotic quarantines are being imposed by--let's call a spade a spade--stupid politicians (Cuomo, Christie, LePage) intent on ignoring all expert medical advice and instead grandstanding for their least educated constituents.


I call it CYA...
Quoting 114. hurricanes2018:


the fall can sure make to forest look pretty huh,my dad used to take us up to this cabin in Vermont, surrounded with all the colors on the tree's..beautiful.
Quoting 127. LargoFl:

do you..have anything weather related outside of complaining about what other people post? models 10 days out?...that's on topic in here


Yea, it's going to too windy on the links this weekend. it puts me in a bad mood.
clipped from the Harvard medical site........................But there's also a dark side to consider. Numerous studies have shown that death rates peak this time of year. Blood pressure increases during the winter, and, by some reckonings, 70% of the wintertime increase in the death rate can be traced back to heart attacks, strokes, and other cardiovascular causes of death. And, of course, flu season is a winter event, and flu viruses spread more readily once the air is dry and chilly.

Quoting 131. luvtogolf:



Yea, it's going to too windy on the links this weekend. it puts me in a bad mood.
LOL ok
guys what are Gale force winds?..40-50mph???............................... .....AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS INTO THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY...PRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE
GULF...HAS PUSHED CLOSER TO THE SUNCOAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DUE TO THE CONVECTION HAS MEANDERED OVER THE PENINSULA AND HAS
HELPED LOWER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LIMITING SOME OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG...THOUGH
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY
THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...BUT THE MORE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL BE BEHIND THE NEXT
REINFORCING FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT OVER
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PREFERRED A BLEND OF MAV/ECMWF/MET MOS
GUIDANCE.
Quoting 133. LargoFl:

LOL ok


It will be back to perfect weather on Monday. Cool mornings and warming in the afternoon but more importantly the wind will lay down. If a front of this strength come through deep in the winter we could see a real serious cold snap. Something we didn't see last year.
Quoting 134. LargoFl:

guys what are Gale force winds?..40-50mph???............................... .....AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS INTO THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY...PRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE
GULF...HAS PUSHED CLOSER TO THE SUNCOAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DUE TO THE CONVECTION HAS MEANDERED OVER THE PENINSULA AND HAS
HELPED LOWER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LIMITING SOME OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG...THOUGH
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY
THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...BUT THE MORE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL BE BEHIND THE NEXT
REINFORCING FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT OVER
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PREFERRED A BLEND OF MAV/ECMWF/MET MOS
GUIDANCE.



Hence my comment about too windy for golf.....
Looking Good
7 day for Fort Myers
47 degree on Sunday morning will be a record low (record is 49).

Pretty strong winds forecast just off the eastcoast.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST,
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS, FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, SHOWERS SHOULD PASS
INTO OUR GULF WATERS AND ALSO POTENTIALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST NEAR DAWN. ALSO SHOWERS THROUGH EXTREME NE PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND OFFSHORE OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN`T STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE ABUNDANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE, OBVIOUS FROM THE 12Z RAOB WHICH SHOWED PWAT JUST
OVER 1". OVERALL PATTERN MAY NOT EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MIAMI-DADE, AS TYPICALLY MODELS ARE TOO WET
WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

A SECOND FRONT WHICH FEATURES THE COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AIRMASS ARRIVING, WHICH WILL MOSTLY BE FELT SUNDAY MORNING,
WHEN SOME RECORD LOWS COULD BE THREATENED. ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS
SHOW H7 AND H5 HEIGHTS ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL,
NAEFS SURFACE TEMPS FOR SHOW ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE BLAST OF COLDER AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
Here's the NAM, even more intense (over 50 knots)


35

Knots

=

40.3

MPH


40

Knots

=

46.1

MPH


45

Knots

=

51.8

MPH

TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
200 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

Visible satellite images show that the center of the cyclone
remains near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. Still,
the convective organization has improved from a few hours ago, with
a distinct band on the northeast side of the system. Dvorak
estimates and scatterometer data support an initial wind speed of 35
kt for this advisory. Vance is the 20th named storm of the eastern
North Pacific hurricane season, the most number of named storms in
the basin since 1992.

The scatterometer data suggests that Vance is now moving about
260/4. A southwestward motion is expected tomorrow as a ridge
builds to the north of the cyclone. The storm should turn westward
and west-northwestward by 72 hours while it moves across the
southwestern periphery of the ridge. Vance will likely turn
northward or north-northeastward at long range ahead of a
mid-latitude trough diving over Baja California into the eastern
Pacific. While there is broad agreement on the general synoptic
pattern, the models have a stronger ridge than the last cycle,
leading to the storm moving farther to the west and south. This
shift in the steering has led to a slower solution at long range
by almost every reliable model. The official NHC prediction is
shifted westward and southward throughout the forecast period, and
further adjustments could be required on the next advisory if model
trends continue.

Although Vance is expected to remain over warm water for the next
several days, it is currently struggling with dry air entrainment
and southwesterly shear. Most of the models respond to this
environment by showing little significant intensity change during
the next 24 hours, so the official forecast will follow suit.
After that time, the global models continue to show reduced shear,
with an increase in low- to mid-level moisture. These conditions
should allow for Vance to become a hurricane in a few days,
although guidance is not in particularly good agreement on this
scenario. At long range, there is high uncertainty in the
intensity forecast, with the models generally showing more shear
than the last cycle. Thus the intensity prediction is lowered some
from the previous NHC forecast, although it remains on the higher
side of the guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.0N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 10.6N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 10.1N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 9.9N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 10.1N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 12.0N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
95.trying
There will definitely be high surf advisories issued on Saturday and Sunday for the westcoast of Florida.
Should be pretty rough seas with strong northwinds in the eastern GOM.
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS HERE!!
Quoting 145. LargoFl:




It would be nice to get a little bit of rain before it really dries out again.
Really a pretty awesome forecast.

Quoting 137. Sfloridacat5:

Looking Good
7 day for Fort Myers
47 degree on Sunday morning will be a record low (record is 49).


Perhaps Texas folks might want to watch this one in the days to come..................
PR will get a heck of a swell out of this.

Quoting 141. Sfloridacat5:

Pretty strong winds forecast just off the eastcoast.

Quoting 152. tampabaymatt:



It would be nice to get a little bit of rain before it really dries out again.
yes same here..we need the rain..some out now in the gulf but bypassing our area both north and south of us gee


Tropical Storm VANCE
2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 30
Location: 11.0N 101.0W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 149. Sfloridacat5:

There will definitely be high surf advisories issued on Saturday and Sunday for the westcoast of Florida.
Should be pretty rough seas with strong northwinds in the eastern GOM.

yes nws is saying possible gale force winds
might get strong huh but on the current track it will go over those Mexican mountains........
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...TX...
FORECAST REASONING FOR THE MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 1630Z OUTLOOK...AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE 20Z
OUTLOOK. AS EXPECTED...THE WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING AND
SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS WEAKENING PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...SUCH
THAT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
VICINITY OF WACO TX WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG A NNW-SSE
ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX TO NEAR AUSTIN TX.

...MO...
THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE HAS REMOVED PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MO FROM
THE GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING ONGOING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM
CENTRAL MO TO NRN AR HAS EXITED LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MO.

...ERN FL PANHANDLE...
THE APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE /EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT/ THAT
AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE WAS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE SRN GA/FL BORDER. SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND DRIER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FOR THESE REASONS...THE GENERAL TSTM AREA
HAS BEEN TRIMMED EASTWARD.

..PETERS.. 10/30/2014


Tropical Storm VANCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1043 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035 >038-040-GAZ132>136-
149>154-162>166-310845-
ALACHUA-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-APPLING-ATKINSON-
BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-
CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS -
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT TO 20 NM-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-
PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-
WARE-WAYNE-
1043 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...

...MUCH COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 301...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NORTH
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...

.A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH
ON FRIDAY. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE... TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE COUNTIES NEAREST THE TENNESSEE RIVER
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES.

Its full name is the Beaufort Wind Force Scale. On the Beaufort Wind Scale, a Gale is classified as: 7: Moderate Gale (32–38 miles per hour), 8: Fresh Gale (39-46 mph), 9: Strong Gale (47-54 mph) and 10: Storm/Whole Gale (55-63 mph).
Here's the marine forecast for my area of the Gulf Coast.
When the wind dies down there will probably be some pretty good surf for a day or so.

Marine Forecast - Bonita Beach to Englewood
FZUS52 KTBW 302027
CWFTBW
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
427 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014
GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.
IMPORTANT NOTICE TO MARINERS...MARINE FORECASTS ARE ISSUED AT LEAST
FOUR TIMES A DAY. BOATERS ON EXTENDED TRIPS SHOULD ROUTINELY MONITOR
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES AND UPDATES FOR THE LATEST MARINE
WEATHER INFORMATION.
THE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH
IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE WAVES.
THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY RARELY BE TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
THE WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
GMZ856-876-310300-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
427 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TONIGHT
WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND
15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS A
MODERATE CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
CHOPPY.

SATURDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET.BAY AND INLAND WATERS ROUGH.

SATURDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET.
BAY AND INLAND WATERS CHOPPY.

SUNDAY
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. BAY
AND INLAND WATERS A CHOPPY.



This cold front will continue moving south and east, pushing off the East Coast by late Saturday.

It will feel chilly and raw from the Midwest into the Southeast and it will be breezy behind the cold front too.

Background Frost and Freeze Alerts
Frost and Freeze Alerts
Lows Saturday morning will drop into the 30s all the way into parts of the Deep South, with a freeze possible as far south as the Ozarks and Tennessee. Freeze watches and warnings have already been posted for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois. A few record lows are possible, including in where the current record is 26 degrees.
Even with sunshine on Saturday afternoon temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year from the Great Lakes to the Sunshine state. Highs will be mainly in the 40s and 50s, with 60s towards the Gulf Coast. It will be windy as well, which will make it feel even colder.

It will be even chillier on Sunday morning in the South with the northern suburbs of possibly dropping below freezing. Temperatures may also dip below freezing in northern Mississippi, Alabama and western parts of North and South Carolina.

The first widespread freeze of the season is possible in parts of the Tennessee Valley on Sunday morning, as light winds and clear skies are expected behind the cold front. Record low temperatures are in jeopardy in Florida on Sunday, including (54), (46), (51) and (49).

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Monday, but the day will start off chilly from the Northeast to the Southeast where lows will generally be in the 30s. This quick shot of winter will just be a memory for most of the East by Tuesday.





COLD WEATHER IS COMING SOON.....Arctic Blast Will Bring First Freeze, Record Cold to Parts of the East
170. 882MB
Quoting 155. HaoleboySurfEC:

PR will get a heck of a swell out of this.




You think, do you have a link, too see when swells are expected?
I believe someone asked earlier about the NWS, Wilmington (coastal zones) discussing any winter precip..

latest 3pm update

Graupel is often referred to also as a soft hail, snow grains or snow pellets. It forms when you have some warmer air at the surface and very cold air aloft.

FURTHERMORE...THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26C...WILL HELP
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FALLING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS GRAUPEL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER ON SATURDAY. THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER WILL DEFINITELY REACH INTO THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE...THEN UNDERGO AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT FALLS
THROUGH THE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
GRAUPEL WILL CERTAINLY
NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE WEATHER GRIDS ONLY
MENTION LIQUID RAIN...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

We'll find out what falls on Saturday..
Link

Yup, looks like the north side of PR gets walloped in about 5 days. See link.

Quoting 170. 882MB:



You think, do you have a link, too see when swells are expected?


173. MahFL
Just had some thunder and 0.31 in of rain here in Orange Park. First rain in 11 days I think.
Quoting 111. Sfloridacat5:

I feel like I have a fever. Can I get 21 paid work days in isolation at home resting, eating pizza, watching cable and using the internet?


In most states no. The quarantine part yes. That's imposed under state, not federal law and it's not your choice. However you won't
be paid unless your employer decides to grant it. Employers do not have to in most states. It's worse than that. In most states you can be terminated for not showing up at work with no recourse if the employer
wishes to do so even when you are under a quarantine order.

In practice enormous public backlash would probably keep employers from doing that and might force them to pay you too even though they aren't legally required to do so. There haven't been any cases yet where Ebola quarantined people in the U.S. have run into any employment issues.

NIH summarizes the problems and makes recommendations for improving quarantine compliance and making it less onerous

in

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC18549 99/

The space between the nines should be removed.. something about editing a post ??????????!!


177. 882MB
Quoting 172. HaoleboySurfEC:

Link

Yup, looks like the north side of PR gets walloped in about 5 days. See link.






Thanks my friend ;)
Oct .30, 2014 5:05 am ET
Midwest |
- The cold blast makes its first U.S. appearance in the northern Plains today.
- Tonight and Friday it pushes through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mississippi Valley and central Plains.
- Light rain showers are possible in northeast Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan ahead of the cold air Thursday.
- Rain showers spread into the lower Great Lakes, while rain showers gradually mix with and change to snow showers in northern Michigan and northern Wisconsin.
- Friday the rain showers spread through the Ohio Valley and Kentucky while wet snow mixes in with the rain in southern Michigan.
- Snow showers are likely in northern Michigan with 1 to 4 inches of accumulation possible Friday.
- Trick-or-treaters battle subfreezing wind chills and snow showers throughout Michigan and in northwest Indiana Friday evening.
- Rain mixes with west snow in the Ohio Valley and eastern Kentucky Friday night.
- Highs Thursday range from the upper 30s and 40s from North Dakota to central Michigan to the 60s across Kansas, Missouri and the lower Ohio Valley.
- Friday and Saturday highs will be mostly in the 40s with some 30s in the Great Lakes.
Northeast |
- Today is a drier, but cool day for the entire region.
- High temperatures should be in the upper 40s and 50s, except for lower 60s in Virginia.
- Friday should be fairly similar, although showers from the next cold front arrive in West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and western New York by afternoon.
- That front pushes through the region Friday night and Saturday with a few showers and much colder temperatures.
- Some wet snow mixes in with the rain in West Virginia Friday night and Saturday with all snow expected in the higher mountains.
- Several inches of accumulation are possible in the mountains by Saturday night.
- Wet snow also mixes in with the rain showers in northwest Pennsylvania, southwest New York and the Adirondack Mountains Saturday and Saturday night.
- High temperatures this weekend should be mostly in the 30s and 40s with some 50s in Virginia.
Quoting 171. ncstorm:

I believe someone asked earlier about the NWS, Wilmington (coastal zones) discussing any winter precip..

latest 3pm update

Graupel is often referred to also as a soft hail, snow grains or snow pellets. It forms when you have some warmer air at the surface and very cold air aloft.

FURTHERMORE...THE ARRIVAL OF THE
IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL ALOFT...500 MB TEMPS AROUND -26C...WILL HELP
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE DAY AS A RESULT.
ONE THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
FALLING FREEZING LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS GRAUPEL AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATER ON SATURDAY. THE TOP OF
THE MOIST LAYER WILL DEFINITELY REACH INTO THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL
GROWTH ZONE...THEN UNDERGO AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT FALLS
THROUGH THE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
GRAUPEL WILL CERTAINLY
NOT BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND THE WEATHER GRIDS ONLY
MENTION LIQUID RAIN...BUT IT IS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

We'll find out what falls on Saturday..


I'd love to see the nws-ilm forecast discussion from last year when a little to no accumulation turned into pine limbs crashing down every few minutes. Now I'm curious, gotta find it.
Quoting 180. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'd love to see the nws-ilm forecast discussion from last year when a little to no accumulation turned into pine limbs crashing down every few minutes. Now I'm curious, gotta find it.


I always tell people "less than a meter" I'm rarely wrong
I was looking at the Wunderground GFS and another GFS and it was looking like South Carolina MIGHT see a few flakes. Are there any other models verifying this?
Quoting 123. Neapolitan:



But the CDC isn't forcing people into quarantine; it's run by intelligent and highly knowledgeable people who know how difficult it is to catch Ebola, and they realize that moronic, knee-jerk reactions such as sealing the borders and forcibly quaranting medical professionals will only server to prolong the current outbreak. No, those idiotic quarantines are being imposed by--let's call a spade a spade--stupid politicians (Cuomo, Christie, LePage) intent on ignoring all expert medical advice and instead grandstanding for their least educated constituents.


These politicians crying wolf on a disease that isn't easily transmitted and is not contagious prior to symptoms,
and quarantining against medical and scientific advice, are going to create a resistance to quarantine which could
make a truly emergency drastic quarantine warranted and mandated event, like pandemic flu, or SARSII or MERS (maybe),
difficult to get implemented. People will think it was overreaction like is happening with Ebola now and not comply or even aggressively resist it.

BTW there's hype about this cold storm in the east. It happens. If you want to see something hypeworthy look
at the late November 1950 storm in the southeast and east. A recurrence would make even my old jaded jaw drop.
Quoting 180. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'd love to see the nws-ilm forecast discussion from last year when a little to no accumulation turned into pine limbs crashing down every few minutes. Now I'm curious, gotta find it.


I don't know how to locate their Feb discussions from earlier this year on their site..but I did have their map saved down from that time..to be fair it was a complex situation but they didnt feel Wilmington was part of that complex situation until "nowcasting" had to come about and that was when the ice starting forming on the trees right outside their office..



Quoting 173. MahFL:

Just had some thunder and 0.31 in of rain here in Orange Park. First rain in 11 days I think.


Nice cells in the Jax area this afternoon, especially towards the beaches. My only shot is the line moving out of Starke extending SW towards Gainesville. Hope it holds.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AMZ250-252-310430-
/O.CON.KILM.GL.A.0003.141101T1700Z-141102T1200Z/
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
416 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 KT...INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...4 TO 8 FEET.


Quoting 185. ncstorm:



I don't know how to locate their Feb discussions from last year on their site..but I did have their map saved down from that time..to be fair it was a complex situation but they didnt feel Wilmington was part of that complex situation until "nowcasting" had to come about and that was when the ice starting forming on the trees right outside their office.


Much of the focus was where it was certain, Dallas to Tennessee, as well as the Atlanta area coming off the interstate freeze; the Triad had over half a foot. Took pictures of the ice on my old phone so I don't have them but had some of young pines and a patch of dwarf palmettos facing the ground.



googled this
'Tis the season.


Quoting 188. win1gamegiantsplease:

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AMZ250-252-310430-
/O.CON.KILM.GL.A.0003.141101T1700Z-141102T1200Z/
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
416 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 KT...INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...4 TO 8 FEET.




Much of the focus was where it was certain, Dallas to Tennessee, as well as the Atlanta area coming off the interstate freeze; the Triad had over half a foot. Took pictures of the ice on my old phone so I don't have them but had some of young pines and a patch of dwarf palmettos facing the ground.



googled this


That was a crazy storm--I measured 0.8" of ice here in Rocky Point. Not sure how we didn't lose power.

I would've liked snow more though.
I think the Obama ,Christie co joined twins Halloween costume is this year's winner.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


I'd love to see the nws-ilm forecast discussion from last year when a little to no accumulation turned into pine limbs crashing down every few minutes. Now I'm curious, gotta find it.


The severe weather map at WU shows the winter weather warnings in NC are right along the mountains on the NC/TN border. There are no winter weather watches or warnings further east. This may change by tomorrow but, for right now, it's the mountains of NC/TN/VA that are most likely to have snow. A lot depends on how fast the low moves and the high builds in behind it bringing drier cold air that will end the risk of any precipitation.



Statement as of 3:43 PM EDT on October 30, 2014


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT
Saturday...


The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snow which is in effect from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... North Carolina mountain counties along the
Tennessee border... and northern Jackson and Buncombe counties.

* Hazards... accumulating snowfall in the 1 to 3 inch range.

* Timing... rain showers Friday evening will change over to snow
overnight as snow levels drop to the valley floors by daybreak Saturday. Scattered snow showers will likely linger through the
day on Saturday... before ending Saturday evening.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches.

* Impacts... the wet snow could produce isolated tree and power line damage. Road surfaces may see slightly less snow accumulation... but bridges and overpasses may become snow
covered and icy.

* Temperatures... falling into the upper 20s bt daybreak Saturday.

* Winds... northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Quoting 189. Grothar:



He is the only person I know who can go as himself on Halloween, and still scare the kids.
Quoting 189. Grothar:



He is the only person I know who can go as himself on Halloween, and still scare the kids.


He reminds me of Richard O'Brien in Rocky Horror Picture Show

Link

take care
Wow, now we're talking winds. I'll have to check the OBX forecast, but I would assume safely add 10-15 knots to those wind speeds.

I'm all too familiar with the ice storm. We only had about 1/2" here on the Florence/Darlington county line. We got lucky as it remained snow here until early afternoon and then changed over to freezing rain. Halfway between here and the coast is where they got belted. Along the coast was mostly rain, but the sweet spots in between me and the coast is where the event fell almost exclusively in the form of freezing rain.

I know firsthand the damage in Dillon and Marion counties because on Feb 23rd I accompanied the first debris removal crews in Dillon county. Southeast Dillon and Marion counties were the worst (on the attached map) from what I saw. When Dillon county was winding down I ended up over in Allendale and Aiken counties on the other side of the state. They were also extremely hard hit. I'm thinking Aiken County and Marion County take top prize for the hardest hit from this event. At least as far as South Carolina is concerned.

Quoting 188. win1gamegiantsplease:

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

AMZ250-252-310430-
/O.CON.KILM.GL.A.0003.141101T1700Z-141102T1200Z/
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
416 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 KT...INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...4 TO 8 FEET.




Much of the focus was where it was certain, Dallas to Tennessee, as well as the Atlanta area coming off the interstate freeze; the Triad had over half a foot. Took pictures of the ice on my old phone so I don't have them but had some of young pines and a patch of dwarf palmettos facing the ground.



googled this

This morning according to another blogger they didn't discuss any possibility of snow east of the mountains..latest discussion below

NWS, Charlotte, NC discussion..

THE VERY POTENT COMPACT VORTMAX/CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE DAY ON SAT... WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL VA/NC EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR WITH 850
MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -6 TO -8C ALONG THE TN LINE AND GENERALLY 0
TO -4C ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALONG ALONG WITH THE
RAPIDLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUTNAINS...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE I-85 CORRIDOR
TOWARD SR ON SAT.
Second cold front of the year is bearing down on the Keys tomorrow. mid-70's for a high on Saturday !!

from Key West NWS discussion today

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1910...A PARTICULARLY
COLD DAY UNFOLDED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN THAT YEAR...THE DAILY
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 71F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. ALSO
ON OCT 30TH...1910...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 59F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS RECORD LOW IS ALSO TIED FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN OCTOBER IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 26m 26 minutes ago

GFS 18z stirring the pot ... Nor'easter back in business on near coastal track. Maine would be buried.
Quoting 196. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wow, now we're talking winds. I'll have to check the OBX forecast, but I would assume safely add 10-15 knots to those wind speeds.

I'm all too familiar with the ice storm. We only had about 1/2" here on the Florence/Darlington county line. We got lucky as it remained snow here until early afternoon and then changed over to freezing rain. Halfway between here and the coast is where they got belted. Along the coast was mostly rain, but the sweet spots in between me and the coast is where the event fell almost exclusively in the form of freezing rain.

I know firsthand the damage in Dillon and Marion counties because on Feb 23rd I accompanied the first debris removal crews in Dillon county. Southeast Dillon and Marion counties were the worst (on the attached map) from what I saw. When Dillon county was winding down I ended up over in Allendale and Aiken counties on the other side of the state. They were also extremely hard hit. I'm thinking Aiken County and Marion County take top prize for the hardest hit from this event. At least as far as South Carolina is concerned.




One of my friends lives in Whiteville and got pelted. Didn't have power for almost a week she said, mine was out for a day although I know several in Wilmington who had to wait until after the weekend to get it back.
18z GFS Wind Map





Later..going to watch the Panthers murder the Saints over at friends house..
Good evening all.

I've got the Parallel GFS running a limited selection of products in real-time on my models page until it goes operational in December. Enjoy.



snowing at my house on sunday


right next to the coast line
Quoting 193. sar2401:



The severe weather map at WU shows the winter weather warnings in NC are right along the mountains on the NC/TN border. There are no winter weather watches or warnings further east. This may change by tomorrow but, for right now, it's the mountains of NC/TN/VA that are most likely to have snow. A lot depends on how fast the low moves and the high builds in behind it bringing drier cold air that will end the risk of any precipitation.



Statement as of 3:43 PM EDT on October 30, 2014


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT
Saturday...


The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snow which is in effect from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... North Carolina mountain counties along the
Tennessee border... and northern Jackson and Buncombe counties.

* Hazards... accumulating snowfall in the 1 to 3 inch range.

* Timing... rain showers Friday evening will change over to snow
overnight as snow levels drop to the valley floors by daybreak Saturday. Scattered snow showers will likely linger through the
day on Saturday... before ending Saturday evening.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches.

* Impacts... the wet snow could produce isolated tree and power line damage. Road surfaces may see slightly less snow accumulation... but bridges and overpasses may become snow
covered and icy.

* Temperatures... falling into the upper 20s bt daybreak Saturday.

* Winds... northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.



Oh I don't expect anything but cold rain and a steady breeze for the first of the month. The Piedmont might see some flurries mixed in with rain however.

If it was winter, I would just be reminded of the ice storm that was downplayed for the coastal Carolinas in February.
Thanks Levi!


the storm is right next to the northeast coast on this run!! more to the west on this run!!




right on the northeast coast with rain and snow!
Quoting 200. ncstorm:


Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 26m 26 minutes ago

GFS 18z stirring the pot ... Nor'easter back in business on near coastal track. Maine would be buried.


its look like the northeaster is right next to the coast move west on this new run!
Alberta Clipper will cause up to 20 ft waves in Lake Michigan and there are flood warnings for Lake Shore Drive ..

winds are expected to gust above 40 mph ..
A high of 58 with a low of 36 and wind gusts possibly over 35 mph this Saturday? Geeze, this is going to be a shock to the system, after many days with 80's It going to be all long sleeves even during the day this weekend.

I'm looking forward to it though, I'm not a fan of 80's by this time of year.
Cut off low stalls over Texas..

Quoting Jedkins01:
A high of 58 with a low of 36 and wind gusts possibly over 35 mph this Saturday? Geeze, this is going to be a shock to the system, after many days with 80's It going to be all long sleeves even during the day this weekend.

I'm looking forward to it though, I'm not a fan of 80's by this time of year.
I'm going to have to dig up my parka again to walk Radar dog for tomorrow and Saturday night, since we should be down into the low 40's with winds of 25 mph by about 9:00 each night. It will warm up very rapidly after that as the cold air advection relaxes. There's a very slight chance for some showers in NW AL due to the lowering heights and cold air aloft but we have no chance for rain in SW AL. It will be touch and go for frost Sunday morning. It all depends on when the winds down to calm. The Record low for November 2 is 26 degrees, so it can get cold, but we shouldn't even get close to that record. Our next 20%-30% chance of rain is Wednesday and Thursday, when we start getting some return flow from the Gulf.
Quoting hurricanes2018:




right on the northeast coast with rain and snow!
The low will be a couple hundred models out to sea and it doesn't show snow anywhere near the east coast. The closest snow gets to the US east coast is far northern Maine



Evening all.... doesn't seem like this nurse is doing much to spread Ebola by going for a ride on her bike.... she's not bleeding or spitting on anybody, and is staying away from the scared people in town. If she had tested positive, or the tests had been inconclusive, I might have understood the hype.

Sounds a lot more like political hype than medical concern.

I agree with the early testing; I agree with the close checks; I also feel that doctors who have been treating Ebola for months likely have a better idea of how it works than politicians looking for a way to bite back at the central government.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Oh I don't expect anything but cold rain and a steady breeze for the first of the month. The Piedmont might see some flurries mixed in with rain however.

If it was winter, I would just be reminded of the ice storm that was downplayed for the coastal Carolinas in February.
True, but it's the beginning of November. I'd be nervous in late January/February also, since we were forecast to get 1/4" of ice last winter and ended up with 1/2" of ice and 3" of snow on top of it. I've just seen mention of Wilmington talking about snow somewhere away from the mountains and I don't see that yet.
Good evening all! We finally had a typical October afternoon. Moderate to heavy showers occurred in western and central parishes.



I see that a potentially strong shortwave trough, may introduce cold air to areas of the NE.
Anybody blogging from the Louisville KY area?
Quoting 220. BahaHurican:

Anybody blogging from the Louisville KY area?



No, but I heard they have a University that's beating a University that I don't like...
Quoting 214. hydrus:

Cut off low stalls over Texas..




Yeah, the way all the weather offices here in Texas are talking about that, it's like they're expecting not just rain showers and T-storms, but your typical "big-in-Texas" kinds of flooding, tornadoes and etc. What do you think? Should I be a good Gulf Coast city resident and pack up everything in my car and flee Texas?


heavy snow where i live at this weekend
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.... doesn't seem like this nurse is doing much to spread Ebola by going for a ride on her bike.... she's not bleeding or spitting on anybody, and is staying away from the scared people in town. If she had tested positive, or the tests had been inconclusive, I might have understood the hype.

Sounds a lot more like political hype than medical concern.

I agree with the early testing; I agree with the close checks; I also feel that doctors who have been treating Ebola for months likely have a better idea of how it works than politicians looking for a way to bite back at the central government.
I think the issue is that she's 10 days away from having contact with Ebola patients. The virus has a typical incubation period of 21 days. Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction to test for a filovirus will only show the presence of the virus 3-10 days after symptoms. The fact that she tested negative last Sunday is irrelevant if she was asymptomatic then. She is in a high risk group, and a 21 day quarantine is the gold standard for high risk individuals. Link

The CDC has a detailed list of recommendations for how to handle high risk persons here. Their recommendations include active monitoring and isolation. You can read through the recommendations and you see if you think the nurse is cooperating with the CDC, an agency she works for. Active monitoring and isolation are not draconian. Keep her in a tent for 21 days is obviously ridiculous but she's not being asked or ordered to do that.

From a pubic health standpoint, what does make me nervous as a former paramedic is that she's not cooperating with isolation, and that includes not riding your bike around the countryside. The doctor now hospitalized in NYC felt fine the day before he became symptomatic and was confirmed with Ebola. Just because she says she feels fine now should not be comforting until the incubation period is up. If she has an accident on her bike that requires her to be transported to a hospital, this is going to happen in a town with a tiny hospital in northern Maine that is not equipped to deal with a level 4 infectious disease risk. By the look of the maps, there's a big storm headed that way, so we can't depend on a medivac helicopter being able to fly her to New York. I would feel better if she just remained isolated as much as possible for the 21 days. It's about 11 days from now. It's not a lot to ask. She voluntarily went to a part of the world that has living conditions that are much worse than what she has today. She was trying to help sick people get well. It just seems reasonable that she can spend a little more time now making sure that, because of her actions, well people don't get sick.
Anyone think this storm system will be named Winter Storm Astro by TWC ?
226. txjac
Response to number post number 224 from Sar.

My sister is a nurse here in Texas ...she is furious with this nurse.
I'm 100% on board with you sar.
So we have Vance in the EPac. Meanwhile, looks like California's drought will take a dent. Winter weather advisory for the Sierras just changed to a warning for up to 2 feet of snow. Heavy rain on the coast down to Big Sur. Coastal SSTs maintaining the 60s, so expecting numerous post-frontal showers as cold air spills out of the Bering Sea. Forecast office in SF calling for thunder and hail.
Latest has Aroostook County (rooftop), Allagash getting buried. The snowmobilers and Nordic skiiers are in heaven. Caribou, Ft Kent, Madawaska...snow is life up there. Beautiful area, but cold.


Quoting 200. ncstorm:


Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 26m 26 minutes ago

GFS 18z stirring the pot ... Nor'easter back in business on near coastal track. Maine would be buried.
Ironically I believe she is in Ft Kent which is about to get slammed with snow by this Nor'easter. Ft Kent is in Aroostook County just across the river from Canada. Rte 1 starts there and goes over 2,000 miles all the way to Key West.

So she could spread Ebola by bicycle all the way to Key West. Luckily Global Warming or possibly HAARP has provided a "natural quarantine." She won't make it past Bangor. Phew!!! That was close.



Quoting 217. BahaHurican:

Evening all.... doesn't seem like this nurse is doing much to spread Ebola by going for a ride on her bike.... she's not bleeding or spitting on anybody, and is staying away from the scared people in town. If she had tested positive, or the tests had been inconclusive, I might have understood the hype.

Sounds a lot more like political hype than medical concern.

I agree with the early testing; I agree with the close checks; I also feel that doctors who have been treating Ebola for months likely have a better idea of how it works than politicians looking for a way to bite back at the central government.
Quoting 215. sar2401:

I'm going to have to dig up my parka again to walk Radar dog for tomorrow and Saturday night, since we should be down into the low 40's with winds of 25 mph by about 9:00 each night. It will warm up very rapidly after that as the cold air advection relaxes. There's a very slight chance for some showers in NW AL due to the lowering heights and cold air aloft but we have no chance for rain in SW AL. It will be touch and go for frost Sunday morning. It all depends on when the winds down to calm. The Record low for November 2 is 26 degrees, so it can get cold, but we shouldn't even get close to that record. Our next 20%-30% chance of rain is Wednesday and Thursday, when we start getting some return flow from the Gulf. < Did you know that the farmers bank so much on that snap they make that Alabama gold? Sampson Al, is the reigning tomato capital of that state. I ate them, and they are well above par. The only problem a tourist like you would have is the locals running next door to sell you the non award winning tomatoes . See, in a town like that, everyone copy's the successful guy, but does not have the carefully protected seed. Tallahassee is different. You might make a bundle, but lose everything in a few hours after Sampson.
Quoting 212. whitewabit:

Alberta Clipper will cause up to 20 ft waves in Lake Michigan and there are flood warnings for Lake Shore Drive ..

winds are expected to gust above 40 mph ..
That good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
When the gales of November came early. I dipped my toe in Lake Michigan and my big toe never went further.
Quoting 224. sar2401:

I think the issue is that she's 10 days away from having contact with Ebola patients. The virus has a typical incubation period of 21 days. Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction to test for a filovirus will only show the presence of the virus 3-10 days after symptoms. The fact that she tested negative last Sunday is irrelevant if she was asymptomatic then. She is in a high risk group, and a 21 day quarantine is the gold standard for high risk individuals. Link

The CDC has a detailed list of recommendations for how to handle high risk persons here. Their recommendations include active monitoring and isolation. You can read through the recommendations and you see if you think the nurse is cooperating with the CDC, an agency she works for. Active monitoring and isolation are not draconian. Keep her in a tent for 21 days is obviously ridiculous but she's not being asked or ordered to do that.

From a pubic health standpoint, what does make me nervous as a former paramedic is that she's not cooperating with isolation, and that includes not riding your bike around the countryside. The doctor now hospitalized in NYC felt fine the day before he became symptomatic and was confirmed with Ebola. Just because she says she feels fine now should not be comforting until the incubation period is up. If she has an accident on her bike that requires her to be transported to a hospital, this is going to happen in a town with a tiny hospital in northern Maine that is not equipped to deal with a level 4 infectious disease risk. By the look of the maps, there's a big storm headed that way, so we can't depend on a medivac helicopter being able to fly her to New York. I would feel better if she just remained isolated as much as possible for the 21 days. It's about 11 days from now. It's not a lot to ask. She voluntarily went to a part of the world that has living conditions that are much worse than what she has today. She was trying to help sick people get well. It just seems reasonable that she can spend a little more time now making sure that, because of her actions, well people don't get sick.

I agree! As a ex medical person myself, what she is doing is irresponsible, while I'm quite liberal, I have to ? does she just want 15 minutes of fame or infamy !
Quoting 220. BahaHurican:

Anybody blogging from the Louisville KY area?



And if so...is all the carpeting at the airport still plush red? Haven't been there since the Hurricanes went to the Stanley cup finals for the first time (2001?)
Northeast | update at 7pm on october 30 2014
- Dry, cool conditions continue for the entire region tonight.
- Friday should be fairly similar, although showers from the next cold front arrive in West Virginia, western Pennsylvania and western New York by afternoon.
- That front pushes through the region Friday night and Saturday with a few showers and much colder temperatures.
- Some wet snow mixes in with the rain in West Virginia Friday night and Saturday with all snow expected in the higher mountains.
- Several inches of accumulation are possible in the mountains by Saturday night.
- Wet snow also mixes in with the rain showers in northwest Pennsylvania, southwest New York and the Adirondack Mountains Saturday and Saturday night.
The searchers all say they'd have made Whitefish Bay
If they'd put fifteen more miles behind her.

Quoting 231. Pallis1:

That good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
When the gales of November came early. I dipped my toe in Lake Michigan and my big toe never went further.

From NY Times today...

Link Our Failing Weather Infrastructure
"...For years, the National Hurricane Center has been stymied by what the Sandy assessment report called “a severe staffing shortage” in its technology and science branch, which is responsible for everything from software development to communicating watches and warnings. Thanks to budget constraints, the center employs just one full-time storm surge specialist, despite the fact that storm surge consistently kills more people than wind and is much harder to predict.

Meanwhile, existing forecasters are forced to cope with limitations that make their jobs difficult: radar that crashes, broken wind-detection devices, failing satellites and budget constraints that prevent them from utilizing tools like weather balloons.

Meteorologists at all levels of the National Weather Service are exceedingly talented, hardworking scientists. They can do far more than their jobs currently allow, including issuing seven-day storm forecasts and using global information systems to create surge maps that would assist emergency managers in evacuations. But, as one senior administrator at the National Hurricane Center told me, “we can barely keep the trains running.” And that’s a dangerous proposition for all of us...."
In all seriousness, at minimum, I believe she is acting selfishly and irresponsibly. The Ft Kent hospital is small. Next closest is CARY in Caribou (where the church group arsenic poisonings were treated in the early 2000's). It's probably 50+ miles away. It's still a small facility. I would think the closest facility that could handle would be in Bangor, which is roughly 150-200 miles away. Agreed, not an easy trek in the weather conditions that may be coming their way.

Ft Kent is a tight-knit, nice small town. Very friendly people. Very hard-working, industrious, educated and humble. I'm sure some are none too happy about the controversy. They have a world-class Nordic ski center up there. It's phenomenal.


Quoting 224. sar2401:

I think the issue is that she's 10 days away from having contact with Ebola patients. The virus has a typical incubation period of 21 days. Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction to test for a filovirus will only show the presence of the virus 3-10 days after symptoms. The fact that she tested negative last Sunday is irrelevant if she was asymptomatic then. She is in a high risk group, and a 21 day quarantine is the gold standard for high risk individuals. Link

The CDC has a detailed list of recommendations for how to handle high risk persons here. Their recommendations include active monitoring and isolation. You can read through the recommendations and you see if you think the nurse is cooperating with the CDC, an agency she works for. Active monitoring and isolation are not draconian. Keep her in a tent for 21 days is obviously ridiculous but she's not being asked or ordered to do that.

From a pubic health standpoint, what does make me nervous as a former paramedic is that she's not cooperating with isolation, and that includes not riding your bike around the countryside. The doctor now hospitalized in NYC felt fine the day before he became symptomatic and was confirmed with Ebola. Just because she says she feels fine now should not be comforting until the incubation period is up. If she has an accident on her bike that requires her to be transported to a hospital, this is going to happen in a town with a tiny hospital in northern Maine that is not equipped to deal with a level 4 infectious disease risk. By the look of the maps, there's a big storm headed that way, so we can't depend on a medivac helicopter being able to fly her to New York. I would feel better if she just remained isolated as much as possible for the 21 days. It's about 11 days from now. It's not a lot to ask. She voluntarily went to a part of the world that has living conditions that are much worse than what she has today. She was trying to help sick people get well. It just seems reasonable that she can spend a little more time now making sure that, because of her actions, well people don't get sick.
at the risk of being both long-winded and redundant...
"Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
527 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014
Valid 00Z Fri Oct 31 2014 - 00Z Sun Nov 02 2014
...Heavy snow possible for portions of the southern and central Appalachians Friday night and Saturday...

...Well below-average temperatures expected for most of the central and eastern U.S...

Both the western and eastern U.S. will see significant weather during the short range forecast period as the upper-level flow across the nation becomes highly amplified.

A vigorous upper-level disturbance will dive southward across the Upper Great Lakes tonight and into the Ohio valley on Friday. At the surface, one frontal system will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley while another develops and deepens off the North Carolina coast.

A polar high pressure will usher a much colder airmass into the central and eastern U.S. behind the western of the two aforementioned systems, with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average in some areas.

Rain and snow will be possible across the Great Lakes on Friday as the system crosses the area, with snow for the Ohio valley. The more significant event will begin Friday night into early Saturday, however, as the energy from the two systems begins to combine, and colder air changes rain over to snow across much of the eastern Ohio Valley, and central and southern Appalachians.

Upslope flow across the Appalachians with northwesterly flow may enhance snowfall, and heavy snow is possible.
Additionally, rain and snow are possible on Saturday across portions of northern interior New England...
Ryan
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php
Quoting 236. HaoleboySurfEC:

The searchers all say they'd have made Whitefish Bay
If they'd put fifteen more miles behind her.


Now the only whitefish that's caught and the only ones that's bought come from north o'er the Canadian border, they brave those cold waters and starve their own daughters to bring back that Milwaukee dollar.
Hope the GFS 00z continues the trend from 18z. Would be nice to see some appreciable early season snowfall.
And finally after almost a year i get my thunderstorm :D

Is sad i know, don't judge me!
and now - All quiet on the Western Atlantic Front - like !
Vance is advancing toward Mexico.
Interesting article:
www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang /wp/2014/10/29/two-years-after-sandy-u-s-global-we ather-prediction-still-inferior-to-europe-and-fall ing-further-behind/
(if any spaces are displayed in that address it is a bug in the system - there are no spaces)

By the way, reverse-transcription PCR should detect the virus you are testing for long before symptoms appear. There is no reason Ebola should be any different.
Quoting 217. BahaHurican:

Evening all.... doesn't seem like this nurse is doing much to spread Ebola by going for a ride on her bike.... she's not bleeding or spitting on anybody, and is staying away from the scared people in town. If she had tested positive, or the tests had been inconclusive, I might have understood the hype.

Sounds a lot more like political hype than medical concern.

I agree with the early testing; I agree with the close checks; I also feel that doctors who have been treating Ebola for months likely have a better idea of how it works than politicians looking for a way to bite back at the central government.
We're talking public health here. And epidemiology. Branches of medicine rarely heard from. A bike ride wouldn't hurt a flea unless she got sick while she was out and had to depend on passers-by for help. Look at this Doc who got sick while he was out bowling. This nurse had a fever when she re-entered the states and was quarantined in NJ. They released her to go home to Maine the next day where she is to continue her quarantine. She seems to feel she is immune - not just to Ebola but to the laws and regulations set out to protect public health.

Nothing to do with politics. Each U.S. state has tremendous public health power. Usually the CDC sets standards but it's up to each individual state to make policy. Some states have acted, and people who've been in these infected areas can and will be quarantined for the safety of the general public. Doesn't matter if they are from Doctors Without Borders or just a Joe Blow, they need to follow the rules.
247. JRRP
wow
Quoting 244. KoritheMan:

Vance is advancing toward Mexico.


I believe it's actually moving away to the southwest.
Can someone answer a question for me? When and why did Americans become so fearful of everything? Perhaps the media constantly "warning" us of horrible things? It just seems to me that so many people are going off the deep end about everything.
Quoting 233. yoboi:



Yep they did such a great job in Dallas.......


Oh yes, the two people who have now been released did so poorly....Where was that epidemic you were freaking out about and perpetuating the myth of airborne transmission over?


A recent ASCAT pass (0430Z) suggests that Vance has a very poorly-defined center; if there are westerly winds within it, the areal extent of those winds are likely to be quite small. This suggests the storm is prone to significant weakening if the shear and dry air end up being more detrimental than anticipated.

Quoting Naga5000:


Oh yes, the two people who have now been released did so poorly....Where was that epidemic you were freaking out about and perpetuating the myth of airborne transmission over?


The two nurses that survived probably did so because the CDC finally started to their jobs and got both of them to one each of four top level 4 infectious disease facilities. Not only did that level of care increase their own chances of survival, it also increased the chances that all the healthcare workers that attended to them also survived. The problem in Dallas is not that Ebola itself is so difficult to treat, it's that it's so difficult to treat in ways that protects every healthcare worker that comes in contact with the virus. The CDC and Texas Presbyterian were both way behind the power curve on treating Ebola when Duncan showed up. The CDC didn't have a plan about where to send people who were infected and Texas Presbyterian didn't have the right training and equipment to protect their workers. NO healthcare worker subsequent to the two unfortunate nurses who contracted Ebola from Duncan have gotten infected. That's because they have the training and equipment to care for Ebola patients safely.

Now, let me make this clear for anyone who thinks that I've climbed on the tinfoil hat Ebola terror wagon. Ebola is an extraordinarily difficult disease to catch. It's not airborne and it's not going to be airborne. No non-airborne virus has ever "mutated" into one that became airborne. You can't get it from being on a bus or subway with someone who has Ebola. That's why, even in Liberia, where conditions of living and treatment are hundreds of orders of magnitude worse than here, only about .005% of the population has the disease. If it was easy to catch, everyone in Liberia would be sick, dying, or already dead.

What does concern me is a high risk healthcare worker not doing things to help protect other healthcare workers. Her riding her bike around Fort Kent is not going to give anyone Ebola. My concern is if she's injured while riding the bike and needs to be transported and admitted to the hospital there. How many of the paramedics there are equipped with and trained to use level 4 isolation equipment? Same with the hospital. These are the people who would be at risk if turns out she's injured at the same time she turns symptomatic. There is no way to predict that until it does or does not happen, but, after 21 days, the chances are extremely small that she would be a risk to anyone.

As the predicted weather this weekend shows, we can't depend on the availability of air resources to whisk her off to a hospital that really is qualified to deal with high risk patients. It falls on the shoulders of Fort Kent's medical community, and that's not fair to them. If she wants to challenge the legal issues involved, that's up to her, but do it in Bethesda or Atlanta, where there are facilities than can provide excellent care and protect the healthcare employees caring for her.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Can someone answer a question for me? When and why did Americans become so fearful of everything? Perhaps the media constantly "warning" us of horrible things? It just seems to me that so many people are going off the deep end about everything.
The internet, plain and simple. There has been some FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) spreading by the mainstream media, but the vast majority has come from the tens of thousands of sites available on the net who's only purpose is to spread doubt. FUD can be very profitable. If I can get you scared about something, I can sell you ammunition, survival food, "special" natural cures and a thousand and one other things that will save you from whatever is the drama of the day.

FUD also feeds egos, and that's another form of profit. Remember the one moron last year who showed on his "weather" blog that the blizzard to end all blizzards was headed for the east coast last winter? There was no fact checking, no vetting, he just had a following and the ability to make up his own scary graphics. All the other FUD web sites that wanted to be first warning of Armageddon picked up his "forecast" and spread it on their sites, who then had their followers spread it on the their sites...and Facebook...and Twitter. It was bad enough that the NWS had to take time away from doing real forecasts to issue a denial about this guy's fake forecast. Strangely, no one remembers what a gigantic bust that forecast became, and he's still doing the same thing today. The good thing for him is he went from a nobody to someone who now has thousands of hits on Google.

We've seen the same type of thing here, where people will post long range models and then start making doom predictions for what will happen in certain places two weeks from now. When it doesn't happen, well, it was the model that was wrong, not them. If they get lucky and it does happen, it's because of their superior forecasting skills. If you do this often enough, your 10% rate of being correct occurs enough that you've now suckered in your own followers, and the ego boost is tremendous.

Lastly, there are a lot of people out there that are certifiably insane. They will believe almost anything if it involves a conspiracy by the government, the Illuminati, UFO's...you name it, and they'll believe it. Unfortunately, there's a lot of websites that pander to these people and a lot of money to be made off them too.

I don't think Americans in general are so fearful of everything. Most of us just continue on with our lives and deal with what life throws at us. That small percentage of people who are fearful of everything now have the ability to make it seem like everyone is like them. Before the internet, their influence might have extended to the family and friends. Now it extends around the world, and it does so at the speed of light.
Quoting 254. sar2401:

The internet, plain and simple. There has been some FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) spreading by the mainstream media, but the vast majority has come from the tens of thousands of sites available on the net who's only purpose is to spread doubt. FUD can be very profitable. If I can get you scared about something, I can sell you ammunition, survival food, "special" natural cures and a thousand and one other things that will save you from whatever is the drama of the day.

FUD also feeds egos, and that's another form of profit. Remember the one moron last year who showed on his "weather" blog that the blizzard to end all blizzards was headed for the east coast last winter? There was no fact checking, no vetting, he just had a following and the ability to make up his own scary graphics. All the other FUD web sites that wanted to be first warning of Armageddon picked up his "forecast" and spread it on their sites, who then had their followers spread it on the their sites...and Facebook...and Twitter. It was bad enough that the NWS had to take time away from doing real forecasts to issue a denial about this guy's fake forecast. Strangely, no one remembers what a gigantic bust that forecast became, and he's still doing the same thing today. The good thing for him is he went from a nobody to someone who now has thousands of hits on Google.

We've seen the same type of thing here, where people will post long range models and then start making doom predictions for what will happen in certain places two weeks from now. When it doesn't happen, well, it was the model that was wrong, not them. If they get lucky and it does happen, it's because of their superior forecasting skills. If you do this often enough, your 10% rate of being correct occurs enough that you've now suckered in your own followers, and the ego boost is tremendous.

Lastly, there are a lot of people out there that are certifiably insane. They will believe almost anything if it involves a conspiracy by the government, the Illuminati, UFO's...you name it, and they'll believe it. Unfortunately, there's a lot of websites that pander to these people and a lot of money to be made off them too.

I don't think Americans in general are so fearful of everything. Most of us just continue on with our lives and deal with what life throws at us. That small percentage of people who are fearful of everything now have the ability to make it seem like everyone is like them. Before the internet, their influence might have extended to the family and friends. Now it extends around the world, and it does so at the speed of light.


It also doesn't help that our society highly discourages critical thinking. Being wrong is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Quoting KoritheMan:
A recent ASCAT pass (0430Z) suggests that Vance has a very poorly-defined center; if there are westerly winds within it, the areal extent of those winds are likely to be quite small. This suggests the storm is prone to significant weakening if the shear and dry air end up being more detrimental than anticipated.

Vance is not looking well at all. Looks like the usual shear and dry air is affecting development. Vance looks like it has a chance to reach minimal cat 1 conditions by Sunday, but then more shear and dry air hits, so it should weaken as it turns toward the coast of Mexico.

It looks like that massive 1028 mb high in the Atlantic has now succeeded in killing off whatever chances 95L might have had. This front that's coming down is going to kill off any chances for development in the Gulf and Caribbean. For the beginning of November, it looks pretty impressive. It's down to 41 here, and this isn't even supposed to be a cold night. Looks like we'll be lucky to get out off of the low 50's on Saturday, and wind chill is going to be miserable. Depending on how fast the winds dies down, we could see anywhere from 29 to 33. I suspect the last two weeks of November are going to be our last chance for any tropical storm development. It seems like we should see one more named storm this season but things sure aren't looking encouraging.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It also doesn't help that our society highly discourages critical thinking. Being wrong is somehow seen as a bad thing.
True. That's the ego thing. Anyone who forecasts anything, from the weather to the stock market is going to be wrong some percentage of the time. Admitting you're wrong doesn't make you less of a pro in the field, it just acknowledges we don't have perfect knowledge. What bothers me is this level playing field idea we seem to have. Your forecast is just as good as the other guy because, after all, he did try. Well, no, sorry, trying is not the same as having some skills.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM NURI (1420)
15:00 PM JST October 31 2014
==============================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nuri (1000 hPa) located at 12.5N 136.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 13.9N 133.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.1N 132.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.2N 133.4E - 60 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2 Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 256. sar2401:

Vance is not looking well at all. Looks like the usual shear and dry air is affecting development. Vance looks like it has a chance to reach minimal cat 1 conditions by Sunday, but then more shear and dry air hits, so it should weaken as it turns toward the coast of Mexico.

It looks like that massive 1028 mb high in the Atlantic has now succeeded in killing off whatever chances 95L might have had. This front that's coming down is going to kill off any chances for development in the Gulf and Caribbean. For the beginning of November, it looks pretty impressive. It's down to 41 here, and this isn't even supposed to be a cold night. Looks like we'll be lucky to get out off of the low 50's on Saturday, and wind chill is going to be miserable. Depending on how fast the winds dies down, we could see anywhere from 29 to 33. I suspect the last two weeks of November are going to be our last chance for any tropical storm development. It seems like we should see one more named storm this season but things sure aren't looking encouraging.


If we do see anything, I'm almost positive it will be a high-latitude spinup in the middle of the Atlantic as a trough gets caught underneath the subtropical ridge.
Quoting 255. KoritheMan:



It also doesn't help that our society highly discourages critical thinking. Being wrong is somehow seen as a bad thing.
Ayup. It's okay to BE wrong, so long as nobody knows... I've seen people make a comment, be proved wrong, then come back almost immediately to say they never made the comment.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, all. A chillier 44 degrees this morning and they're saying it'll be in the thirties tonight and tomorrow night. I guess it's getting closer to 'winter' for Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: English muffins with poached egg whites, cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, cinnamon apple oatmeal, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Vance is advancing toward Mexico. maybe lots of rain to
Important off topic: Lukas Gawenda @LGawenda 3 h H 3 horas
#Bardarbunga #Holuhraun #eruption has spewed 2x more SO2 than Europe produces in a year - http://www.lukas-gawenda.de/bildergalerie/vulkanau sbruch-island/
Quoting 266. Luisport:

Important off topic: Lukas Gawenda @LGawenda � 3 h H� 3 horas
#Bardarbunga #Holuhraun #eruption has spewed 2x more SO2 than Europe produces in a year - http://www.lukas-gawenda.de/bildergalerie/vulkanau sbruch-island/
And this eruption has only two months... what could be the impacts of this? Scientists say this can last months or years!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST
ALONG WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST OF ALL...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THE
EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND. MORNING WV LOOP ALREADY INDICATING THE SEVERAL
S/W THAT WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST/ROCKIES. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN BASICALLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN MIDLANDS...A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MIDLANDS BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND FORECASTED
MID/UPPER 60S NORTHWEST/NORTH TO LOWER 70S CSRA/SRN MIDLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD AS A DEEP 535 TO 538 DECAMETER CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES
SOUTHWARD FROM MIDWEST/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPSTATE/UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS
SC TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE STRONG
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. HAVE GRADUALLY
INCREASED POPS FROM THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WITH A
GRADUAL TAPER IN POPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SIGNIFICANT
COLD POOL...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM -23 DEGREES C THIS
EVENING TO -26 TO -28 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ADD IN CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS. HAVE ALSO DECIDED
TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM MIDDAY
SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE3D TO SEE A FEW REPORTS OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION EARLY/MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF GRAUPEL. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S...SOME
OF THIS MAY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN
SIMILAR PAST EVENTS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.
Quoting 261. BahaHurican:

Ayup. It's okay to BE wrong, so long as nobody knows... I've seen people make a comment, be proved wrong, then come back almost immediately to say they never made the comment.



I had a fairly unique (and unfortunate, some would say; perhaps even me) background. I was a _very_ sheltered kid, growing up in an uberly Christian household in the Bible Belt. You know those Obama = Satan/everything you do is a sin kind of Christian? That.

Likely due to isolation, I realized I was an atheist when I was 17, which was... back in 2008? Yeah, 2008. I'm 23 now.

Anyway, coming to the point, that realization did not come to be (nor did my convictions solidify) until I started searching outside my family's narrow circle for answers; I found a place called GameFAQs, which is a video game community that also contains social boards. I stumbled upon the Religion board of that site (and I actually met one of my best friends there, but I digress); this naturally led to debate. A LOT of it. Like, I spent YEARS debating theology on that board, and I actually still post there today, albeit perhaps without the fervor or frequency I used to. But it's definitely an intrinsic part of me now; not just that board but the whole lifestyle that comes with it (believe me, it took me AWHILE, as in the last few months, to get my mind out of the "Kori, you have to analyze this!" mindset, and it felt pretty damn refreshing once I finally did :P). Not only did doing that ultimately retard my faith, it also opened the door for me to be a more logical thinker than the average person is. That came with a lot of baggage, true (and honestly, it still hinders me socially to a degree, but I've gotten a LOT better about it even if my social approach and methodology isn't quite the same as most people's -- I'm very direct), but it also enabled me to not only be proven wrong on numerous occasions (which continues to this day, by the way; I'd be arrogant to suggest it didn't), it also allowed me to admit when I was wrong! But wait... it gets better; not only are we supposed to admit when we're wrong, not doing that thing that you were wrong about the first time again... is supposed to be a uniform extension of that.

It's a skill not everyone has, apparently. I'd dare to say a LOT of people. But that's not an excuse not to at least attempt to cultivate it.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA STARTING FRIDAY EVENING.
AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NCZ033-048>052-311615-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0007.141101T0000Z-141102T0000Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...
BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...
LAKE JUNALUSKA

406 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE
BORDER FROM AVERY TO SWAIN.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOWFALL.


* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS 10 INCHES ON WEST FACING PEAKS ABOVE 4000 FEET.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. ROAD SURFACES
MAY SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SNOW COVERED AND ICY.
Quoting 263. trunkmonkey:



America is more divided today than it has since the Civil war, for starters.


Never mind the rest of your babble, do you happen to have a source or reference for this? There are a number of professors at various colleges that I will need to alert - and perhaps I will need to mail back my Bachelors in History to my misinformed alma mater.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
717 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE SE FROM WINYAH BAY...IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
OFFSHORE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THIS LOW IS A RESULT OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF OR VORT LIFTING TO THE NE. MODELS INDICATE
BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD TRACK AWAY FROM THE FA
LATER THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY BIAS
GIVEN THE RECENT 12-24 HR PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM AND CUMULATIVE
MOS GUIDANCE OVEREMPHASIZING THE MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS/POPS ACROSS
THE FA. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THRU MIDDAY TODAY GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS OF THE 11-3.9
MICRON IR IMAGERY. A BRIEF LULL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FA THIS
EVENING INTO THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. THIS WILL PROVIDE PARTIAL
CLEARING WITH WINDS POSSIBLY EVEN DECOUPLING FOR SEVERAL HRS.
AM RELUCTANT TO PUT IN FOG FOR THIS EVENING GIVEN THE FAST
APPROACHING AND AMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD DIGGING UPPER CLOSED LOW
THAT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING TO THE
CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE INCREDIBLE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH CURRENT LOCAL SSTS AROUND 70 OVER THE ILM SC WATERS TO THE
LOW TO MID 70S OFF THE NC WATERS SOUTH OF HAT...AND A SFC
BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE...WILL ALL COMBINE TO IGNITE A SFC
LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS LATE TONIGHT...THAT WILL BE POISED TO
POSSIBLY OR LIKELY BOMB BEFORE LEAVING THE NC WATERS TO THE NE
DURING SAT. THEREFORE...WILL INDICATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BY DAYBREAK
SAT IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN WITH INCREASING WINDS. LATER PERIODS
MAY HAVE TO TALK UP A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA.
AS FOR TEMPS THIS GO-AROUND...STAYED CLOSER TO THE MILDER GFS MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH ALLOWS PORTIONS OF THE FA TO OBSERVE 70 DEGREE
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN BEFORE WINTER MAKES ITS 1ST UNOFFICIAL
APPEARANCE LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONGEALING ON
SATURDAY THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. SUCH DIFFERENCES
WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM HOWEVER CAN TRANSLATE TO CONSIDERABLE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GFS HAS SHOWN A BIT OF A
WARM SECTOR/TROWAL BRIEFLY GETTING INTO MAINLY COASTAL NC ZONES AT
12Z SATURDAY...LIKELY DICTATING WHAT HIGH TEMPS ARE FOLLOWED BY
QUITE A DROP OFF IN THE CAA. AGREEMENT HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THE
PORTRAYAL OF DRY SLOT MOVING INTO SRN ZONES TO KEEP HIGHER QPF OVER
NRN ZONES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING BUT SHOULD LARGELY MISS OUT ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE. TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM SO THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ALREADY UNDERWAY BY AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN MORE WIDESPREAD AND W
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NC. WINTER-LIKE COLD WITH MOST PLACES STUCK
IN THE LOW 50S SAVE FOR POSSIBLE EARLY DAY HIGHS ALONG THE COAST.
THERE STILL MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME GRAUPEL PELLETS
TO REACH THE GROUND BUT THEY SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE
RULE. THE CAA PLUNGES SAT NIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.
SOME WIND
AND CLOUD COVER PREVENT RAD COOLING. THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE
BY 12Z SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION. NEARLY FULL SUN
EXPECTED WITH A DIMINISHING BREEZE AND TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WELL BELOW
CLIMO. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE WINDS MAY GO CALM. FOR A PERFECT RAD NIGHT
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WOULD NEED TO HAVE BEEN CLOSER.
Powerful system expected Saturday across the Carolina's

Low to mid 20's for lows Saturday Night up by Hydrus and Lows near freezing for Sar's area.



Hopefully this rain pans out for California.
Also on another note FSU last night went crazy in the second half. Whatever that halftime speech was worked!
Quoting 276. StormTrackerScott:

Low to mid 20's for lows Saturday Night up by Hydrus and Lows near freezing for Sar's area.




I expect to freeze in College Park MD Monday morning.
Quoting 279. georgevandenberghe:



I expect to freeze in College Park MD Monday morning.



NWS has us getting down to 35F on Saturday and I'm near Baton Rouge. I can see it happening.
Quoting 267. Luisport:

And this eruption has only two months... what could be the impacts of this? Scientists say this can last months or years!
Can anyone comment this? Thank's!
CFSv2 now has a strong El-Nino to start next summer. This model has been getting very bullish lately with this El-Nino again. If we have a strong El-Nino next summer then Hurricane Season 2015 will be a very slow one and it could be a dry one in FL.



A very strong warm pool is forecast to develop after the first of the year and surface in the Spring.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Also on another note FSU last night went crazy in the second half. Whatever that halftime speech was worked!


Must've offered Jameis some free crab legs, if they pulled out the win! :)


Quoting 263. trunkmonkey:



America is more divided today than it has since the Civil war, for starters.
Experts are saying if the police officer in Ferguson MO isn't indicted, race riots will occur.
Since 2008 our economy is hanging on by a propped up Federal Reserve.
Inflation is on the rise.
Communicable diseases are coming from other countries and our Government is not stopping it.
ISIS says it's going to annihilate the western world and take it back to the stone age;
Unemployment rate is really 14.3%

yawn.
As a result of this moderate to Strong El-Nino next Spring into Summer areas from California to FL that don't get much rain in April could see rainfall in abundance during what is considered the driest time of the year for some but what I am worried about is if this El-Nino does come on strong how will that affect our normal thunderstorm pattern during the summer months.

It would be fun to have a Spring 1992 again. Anyone remember this? I mention this as I expect to spring similar to 1992 here in C FL as Tornado Alley gets shut down next Spring severe weather will be focused near the Gulf Coast & FL., Expect lots of severe weather outbreaks in FL this upcoming Winter & next Spring.

Folks thats hail half way up most cars in Altamonte Springs.

This photo below was take at SR 434 near the railroad tracks at hwy 427.



Quoting 253. sar2401:

The two nurses that survived probably did so because the CDC finally started to their jobs and got both of them to one each of four top level 4 infectious disease facilities. Not only did that level of care increase their own chances of survival, it also increased the chances that all the healthcare workers that attended to them also survived. The problem in Dallas is not that Ebola itself is so difficult to treat, it's that it's so difficult to treat in ways that protects every healthcare worker that comes in contact with the virus. The CDC and Texas Presbyterian were both way behind the power curve on treating Ebola when Duncan showed up. The CDC didn't have a plan about where to send people who were infected and Texas Presbyterian didn't have the right training and equipment to protect their workers. NO healthcare worker subsequent to the two unfortunate nurses who contracted Ebola from Duncan have gotten infected. That's because they have the training and equipment to care for Ebola patients safely.

Now, let me make this clear for anyone who thinks that I've climbed on the tinfoil hat Ebola terror wagon. Ebola is an extraordinarily difficult disease to catch. It's not airborne and it's not going to be airborne. No non-airborne virus has ever "mutated" into one that became airborne. You can't get it from being on a bus or subway with someone who has Ebola. That's why, even in Liberia, where conditions of living and treatment are hundreds of orders of magnitude worse than here, only about .005% of the population has the disease. If it was easy to catch, everyone in Liberia would be sick, dying, or already dead.

What does concern me is a high risk healthcare worker not doing things to help protect other healthcare workers. Her riding her bike around Fort Kent is not going to give anyone Ebola. My concern is if she's injured while riding the bike and needs to be transported and admitted to the hospital there. How many of the paramedics there are equipped with and trained to use level 4 isolation equipment? Same with the hospital. These are the people who would be at risk if turns out she's injured at the same time she turns symptomatic. There is no way to predict that until it does or does not happen, but, after 21 days, the chances are extremely small that she would be a risk to anyone.

As the predicted weather this weekend shows, we can't depend on the availability of air resources to whisk her off to a hospital that really is qualified to deal with high risk patients. It falls on the shoulders of Fort Kent's medical community, and that's not fair to them. If she wants to challenge the legal issues involved, that's up to her, but do it in Bethesda or Atlanta, where there are facilities than can provide excellent care and protect the healthcare employees caring for her.


Absolutely correct. I was just calling out the fear mongering, tin foil hat crowd. Catching Ebola is hard, and while our healthcare system is not the best in the world, it is certainly good enough to handle isolated cases of a disease like Ebola when protocol is followed properly. This isn't Liberia.
Quoting 263. trunkmonkey:



America is more divided today than it has since the Civil war, for starters.
Experts are saying if the police officer in Ferguson MO isn't indicted, race riots will occur.
Since 2008 our economy is hanging on by a propped up Federal Reserve.
Inflation is on the rise.
Communicable diseases are coming from other countries and our Government is not stopping it.
ISIS says it's going to annihilate the western world and take it back to the stone age;
Unemployment rate is really 14.3%
Uncertainty within our Federal Government is leading to an unstable society.
These are just some of the issues you asked about!
Sorry, were in real trouble in America, just the way it is!




It must be a sad existence to live every day in fear and so be misguided about society.
These are in effect for gary, indiana:

Lake Effect Snow Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 342 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 INZ001-002-010-011-311645- /O.CAN.KLOT.WW.Y.0026.141031T1500Z-141101T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.LE.Y.0004.141031T1500Z-141101T0300Z/ LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO... RENSSELAER 342 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. * TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING FARTHER WEST INTO LAKE COUNTY INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * SNOW...HEAVY BURSTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD EVEN BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER AND LIGHTNING. IF HEAVY SNOW DOES OCCUR THEN VISIBILITIES WOULD BE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED...POTENTIALLY TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS. * ACCUMULATION...LOCALIZED SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS. * OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN SNOW BEING WIND WHIPPED AND FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. && $$ IZZI VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 339 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ILZ014-INZ001-002-311645- /O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0002.141031T1500Z-141031T2300Z/ COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...GARY...VALPARAISO 339 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING NEAR THE LAKE... * TIMING...DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. * WINDS...NEAR THE LAKE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...INLAND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. && $$

Lakeshore Flood Advisory

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 334 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ILZ014-INZ001-002-311645- /O.CON.KLOT.LS.Y.0001.141031T1600Z-141101T0900Z/ COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER- 334 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY... * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES OF UP TO 23 FT WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING NEAR THE LAKE. * TIMING...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * IMPACTS...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED. STAY AWAY FROM PIERS AND BREAK WALLS...OCCASIONAL ROGUE WAVES ARE LIKELY AND COULD STRIKE WITH LITTLE WARNING AND SWEEP YOU OUT INTO THE LAKE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. FOR INFORMATION ON SWIM ADVISORIES OR BANS AT CHICAGO BEACHES VISIT...WWW.CPDBEACHES.COM. && $$ IZZI PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE NEW BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE= CHMBHS THEN AFTER DOING THE SURVEY VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Quoting 263. trunkmonkey:



America is more divided today than it has since the Civil war, for starters.
Experts are saying if the police officer in Ferguson MO isn't indicted, race riots will occur.
Since 2008 our economy is hanging on by a propped up Federal Reserve.
Inflation is on the rise.
Communicable diseases are coming from other countries and our Government is not stopping it.
ISIS says it's going to annihilate the western world and take it back to the stone age;
Unemployment rate is really 14.3%
Uncertainty within our Federal Government is leading to an unstable society.
These are just some of the issues you asked about!
Sorry, were in real trouble in America, just the way it is!




Implying there hasn't always been dichotomy and instability in our society.
Quoting 270. KoritheMan:



I had a fairly unique (and unfortunate, some would say; perhaps even me) background. I was a _very_ sheltered kid, growing up in an uberly Christian household in the Bible Belt. You know those Obama = Satan/everything you do is a sin kind of Christian? That.

Likely due to isolation, I realized I was an atheist when I was 17, which was... back in 2008? Yeah, 2008. I'm 23 now.

Anyway, coming to the point, that realization did not come to be (nor did my convictions solidify) until I started searching outside my family's narrow circle for answers; I found a place called GameFAQs, which is a video game community that also contains social boards. I stumbled upon the Religion board of that site (and I actually met one of my best friends there, but I digress); this naturally led to debate. A LOT of it. Like, I spent YEARS debating theology on that board, and I actually still post there today, albeit perhaps without the fervor or frequency I used to. But it's definitely an intrinsic part of me now; not just that board but the whole lifestyle that comes with it (believe me, it took me AWHILE, as in the last few months, to get my mind out of the "Kori, you have to analyze this!" mindset, and it felt pretty damn refreshing once I finally did :P). Not only did doing that ultimately retard my faith, it also opened the door for me to be a more logical thinker than the average person is. That came with a lot of baggage, true (and honestly, it still hinders me socially to a degree, but I've gotten a LOT better about it even if my social approach and methodology isn't quite the same as most people's -- I'm very direct), but it also enabled me to not only be proven wrong on numerous occasions (which continues to this day, by the way; I'd be arrogant to suggest it didn't), it also allowed me to admit when I was wrong! But wait... it gets better; not only are we supposed to admit when we're wrong, not doing that thing that you were wrong about the first time again... is supposed to be a uniform extension of that.

It's a skill not everyone has, apparently. I'd dare to say a LOT of people. But that's not an excuse not to at least attempt to cultivate it.


It's good to know that not all atheists are the "I'm automatically smarter than you because I don't believe in a god" type. Trust me, I've encountered quite a few of them. :/
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
It would be fun to have a Spring 1992 again. Anyone remember this? I mention this as I expect to spring similar to 1992 here in C FL as Tornado Alley gets shut down next Spring severe weather will be focused near the Gulf Coast & FL., Expect lots of severe weather outbreaks in FL this upcoming Winter & next Spring.

Folks thats hail half way up most cars in Altamonte Springs.

This photo below was take at SR 434 near the railroad tracks at hwy 427.





At first I thought that was snow. I was wondering why this crazy girl was barefoot when there was two feet of snow on the ground.
Quoting 290. KoritheMan:



Implying there hasn't always been dichotomy and instability in our society.


No weather for you to comment on?
Quoting 292. Sfloridacat5:



At first I thought that was snow. I was wondering why this crazy girl was barefoot when there was two feet of snow on the ground.


I was stuck in that when I was in school. Never seen anything like then 2 weeks later we had softball size hail that destroyed almost everything we owned in Sanford. It was like we had holes in our cinder block house on Markham Woods Rd near SR 46
"storm from hell" worst storm for yrs! winds to 60 mph so windy you could not open the door. hope other florida east coasters did not get what we got.
Quoting 292. Sfloridacat5:



At first I thought that was snow. I was wondering why this crazy girl was barefoot when there was two feet of snow on the ground.


I am getting worried though about what effects FL will have from a strengthening El-Nino during our Rainy Season as it could mean a dry & hot summer ahead. I hope not and I would be interested on what others think of this and has this ever happened before as it appears El-Nino could peak during the summer only to fall back toward neutral next Winter.
Quoting 295. islander101010:

"storm from hell" worst storm for yrs! winds to 60 mph so windy you could not open the door. hope other florida east coasters did not get what we got.


Never seen so much lightning last night it was almost every second looking to the east toward you.
nonsense trunk monkey you be watching too much of that australian owned network. its way better than the early 60s we all thought we were going to die and it was not hype like today. you really need to go outside trunkmonkey its booming . more cars more people and more industry.
Quoting 291. TimTheWxMan:



It's good to know that not all atheists are the "I'm automatically smarter than you because I don't believe in a god" type. Trust me, I've encountered quite a few of them. :/


They're like the flipside of the kind of Christians I mentioned in my post.

As in, not representative at all, but obnoxiously loud as to mislead people in believing that they are.

I don't see how believing or not believing in something or not believing it inherently makes someone smarter. What's more relevant is how you COME to those conclusions; that's what separates intellectuality.
Vance looking incredibly sickly, even coming out of dmax. I wouldn't rule out some short-term weakening.

Quoting 274. StormTrackerScott:

Powerful system expected Saturday across the Carolina's


wow!!
This is what happens almost everytime a front comes down from the N.W.
Rain just dissipates north of the city or goes around us.
Quoting 302. Sfloridacat5:

This is what happens almost everytime a front comes down from the N.W.
Rain just dissipates north of the city or goes around us.



CAA

ur welcome
still warm. when the cooldown begin scott?
Quoting 295. islander101010:

"storm from hell" worst storm for yrs! winds to 60 mph so windy you could not open the door. hope other florida east coasters did not get what we got.

I was completely missed..

The front is still over us, just a dry. This afternoon it should cool off & the winds should come up.
Quoting 246. Barefootontherocks:

This nurse had a fever when she re-entered the states and was quarantined in NJ. They released her to go home to Maine the next day where she is to continue her quarantine.


She didn't have a fever when she returned to NJ. She was completely healthy. The authorities kept her locked up for hours, taking her temperature until she was so pissed off and flush that an inaccurate forehead-swipe thermometer registered a high temperature. She demanded (being a nurse) that they use a real thermometer, which they did, which then read normal.

They threw her in isolation anyway. The authorities basically kept at it until they could come up with something to isolate her over, even though it clearly had no medical reasoning whatsoever behind it.

As to state/federal authority, the Feds are supposed to have the authority here, especially in the case where people are coming from overseas. The big issue is while HHS provided guidelines and regulations of their own, they didn't go out of their way to state how returning health care workers are *not* to be treated, opening the door for states to invent their own fear-and-ignorance based quarantine policies.
Quoting KoritheMan:


CAA

ur welcome


I waiting for sand dunes and tumble weeds to take over the city. Fort Myers is becoming the desert of Florida. It's in the right spot (S.W.).

Only 1.24" of rain this month and 14.41" below normal for the year.
Strong north winds and low humidity this weekend could create a localized high fire threat.
I'm working on my winter forecast, it'll be out tomorrow.

(Hint: snow lovers across the East will rejoice)
309. MahFL
Quoting 304. islander101010:

still warm. when the cooldown begin scott?


The cold air hits GA midnight tonight, be in FL just after dawn.
Sfloridacat5:

Close, but no cigar!

311. MahFL
12F in Grand Forks, ND.
Good morning. Happy Halloween. I awaken to find my house (which was once hit by mudslides earlier this year) again under flash mudslide warnings for tonight. I know we need rain in Southern California, but the "when it rains it pours" adage is becoming all too common.
Trick or Treat Temps Forecast for Fl

5:00 PM:



8:00 PM:

Quoting 224. sar2401:

I think the issue is that she's 10 days away from having contact with Ebola patients. The virus has a typical incubation period of 21 days. Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction to test for a filovirus will only show the presence of the virus 3-10 days after symptoms. The fact that she tested negative last Sunday is irrelevant if she was asymptomatic then. She is in a high risk group, and a 21 day quarantine is the gold standard for high risk individuals. Link

The CDC has a detailed list of recommendations for how to handle high risk persons here. Their recommendations include active monitoring and isolation. You can read through the recommendations and you see if you think the nurse is cooperating with the CDC, an agency she works for. Active monitoring and isolation are not draconian. Keep her in a tent for 21 days is obviously ridiculous but she's not being asked or ordered to do that.

From a pubic health standpoint, what does make me nervous as a former paramedic is that she's not cooperating with isolation, and that includes not riding your bike around the countryside. The doctor now hospitalized in NYC felt fine the day before he became symptomatic and was confirmed with Ebola. Just because she says she feels fine now should not be comforting until the incubation period is up. If she has an accident on her bike that requires her to be transported to a hospital, this is going to happen in a town with a tiny hospital in northern Maine that is not equipped to deal with a level 4 infectious disease risk. By the look of the maps, there's a big storm headed that way, so we can't depend on a medivac helicopter being able to fly her to New York. I would feel better if she just remained isolated as much as possible for the 21 days. It's about 11 days from now. It's not a lot to ask. She voluntarily went to a part of the world that has living conditions that are much worse than what she has today. She was trying to help sick people get well. It just seems reasonable that she can spend a little more time now making sure that, because of her actions, well people don't get sick.

According to the CDC, the Maine nurse is definitely *not* in the high-risk category; she is, rather, "some risk". And the CDC says asymptomatic individuals in the "some risk" category should abide by the following:

1) Should have direct active monitoring until 21 days after the last potential exposure.

2) Should stay away from public transportation (buses, ships, planes); should stay away from work (though telecommunting is okay); should stay away from crowded public spaces (shopping centers and movie theaters).

3) Outdoor activities are okay, so long as there's separation from others (jogging in a park, or, you know, riding a bicycle on a lonely country road)

That's it. No quarantine, no isolation. And that's precisely what the nurse was doing before Gov. LePage decided his education and experience in the retail business trumped that of hundreds of actual health care professionals, and tried locking her up. The nurse isn't seeking attention; she's making a science-based stand for her civil rights.

Some facts:

Number of Americans killed each year by the flu: 50,000
Number of Americans killed each year from smoking: 450,000
Number of Americans killed each year by obesity: 225,000
Number of Americans killed each year in automobile accidents: 50,000
Number of Americans killed over the past 40 years by Ebola contracted in the United States: 0

Fearmongering is unbecoming and counterproductive, and I wish everyone would stop, already.
Quoting 286. StormTrackerScott:

It would be fun to have a Spring 1992 again. Anyone remember this? I mention this as I expect to spring similar to 1992 here in C FL as Tornado Alley gets shut down next Spring severe weather will be focused near the Gulf Coast & FL., Expect lots of severe weather outbreaks in FL this upcoming Winter & next Spring.

Folks thats hail half way up most cars in Altamonte Springs.

This photo below was take at SR 434 near the railroad tracks at hwy 427.



Yep...There was another that same year that caused 60 million in damage just in Orlando...Bad hail storms are rare in Florida.
Quoting 306. schwankmoe:



She didn't have a fever when she returned to NJ. She was completely healthy. The authorities kept her locked up for hours, taking her temperature until she was so pissed off and flush that an inaccurate forehead-swipe thermometer registered a high temperature. She demanded (being a nurse) that they use a real thermometer, which they did, which then read normal.

They threw her in isolation anyway. The authorities basically kept at it until they could come up with something to isolate her over, even though it clearly had no medical reasoning whatsoever behind it.

As to state/federal authority, the Feds are supposed to have the authority here, especially in the case where people are coming from overseas. The big issue is while HHS provided guidelines and regulations of their own, they didn't go out of their way to state how returning health care workers are *not* to be treated, opening the door for states to invent their own fear-and-ignorance based quarantine policies.

Oh, and you forgot to mention, she's even been tested for ebola. And the tests (I think there were 2) were negative.
Cut off upper low and Vance are forecast to stall over Texas....Could be trouble for some folks there..

Quoting 315. Neapolitan:


According to the CDC, the Maine nurse is definitely *not* in the high-risk category; she is, rather, "some risk". And the CDC says asymptomatic individuals in the "some risk" category should abide by the following:

1) Should have direct active monitoring until 21 days after the last potential exposure.

2) Should stay away from public transportation (buses, ships, planes); should stay away from work (though telecommunting is okay); should stay away from crowded public spaces (shopping centers and movie theaters).

3) Outdoor activities are okay, so long as there's separation from others (jogging in a park, or, you know, riding a bicycle on a lonely country road)

That's it. No quarantine, no isolation. And that's precisely what the nurse was doing before Gov. LePage decided his education and experience in the retail business trumped that of hundreds of actual health care professionals, and tried locking her up. The nurse isn't seeking attention; she's making a science-based stand for her civil rights.

Some facts:

Number of Americans killed each year by the flu: 50,000
Number of Americans killed each year from smoking: 450,000
Number of Americans killed each year by obesity: 225,000
Number of Americans killed each year in automobile accidents: 50,000
Number of Americans killed over the past 40 years by Ebola contracted in the United States: 0

Fearmongering is unbecoming and counterproductive, and I wish everyone would stop, already.


This is the part people need to realize. She is NOT high risk according to the CDC guidelines.
If this verifies, worst of it right over my house.

Quoting 274. StormTrackerScott:

Powerful system expected Saturday across the Carolina's


Quoting 319. Michfan:



This is the part people need to realize. She is NOT high risk according to the CDC guidelines.

Like that ever stopped the Google Galileos from thinking they know better.

Watching non-epidemiologists argue about ebola is about as enthralling as watching non-climate-scientists argue about climate change.
Quoting 320. HaoleboySurfEC:

If this verifies, worst of it right over my house.


Not only that, the 700 MB chart shows where it will likely snow, and there is a bit more showing here than whats forecast..This will be interesting. Our local Mets here said it will snow here in TN, from a dusting as far west as I-65, and accumulations over half a foot in the higher elevations of Eastern TN.


Sometimes I wonder about SHIPS:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
Quoting 300. KoritheMan:

Vance looking incredibly sickly, even coming out of dmax. I wouldn't rule out some short-term weakening.





looks more like a STS this AM
Its pretty simple...If you are around sick and dying Ebola patients in West Africa.....mandatory 21 days quarantine in West Africa, before you go any where else in the world. If thats too much to ask,then dont go help.
Quoting 323. KoritheMan:

Sometimes I wonder about SHIPS:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

Why? The shear that has been plaguing Vance is forecast to decrease this weekend as the storm enters a more moist environment. I wouldn't be surprised to see the cyclone intensify quicker than anticipated if it develops an inner core.

NHC just raised their forecast peak intensity to 75kt.
The lows in Mobile over the weekend will be in the 30's! I love it!
Winter Storm Andrew named.
Quoting 326. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why? The shear that has been plaguing Vance is forecast to decrease this weekend as the storm enters a more moist environment. I wouldn't be surprised to see the cyclone intensify quicker than anticipated if it develops an inner core.

NHC just raised their forecast peak intensity to 75kt.


I explicitly mentioned rapid intensification as a possibility in my blog this morning, Cody. I agree with what you're saying here.

But NOT within the next 24 hours like the SHIPS suggests.
Quoting 321. ScottLincoln:


Like that ever stopped the Google Galileos from thinking they know better.

Watching non-epidemiologists argue about ebola is about as enthralling as watching non-climate-scientists argue about climate change.


Yeah, when it comes to epidemiology--and climate, and weather--too many people stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. ;-)
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Like that ever stopped the Google Galileos from thinking they know better.

Watching non-epidemiologists argue about ebola is about as enthralling as watching non-climate-scientists argue about climate change.


"Google Galileos"

Ha! That's a new one I haven't heard before.
Come to my blog for some more info. Please come!
@Reuters 7m
Maine wins court order requiring monitoring, travel limits on nurse Kaci Hickox.

Quoting 329. KoritheMan:



I explicitly mentioned rapid intensification as a possibility in my blog this morning, Cody. I agree with what you're saying here.

But NOT within the next 24 hours like the SHIPS suggests.

K.
How did this blog go from the huge cooldown on the way to ebola?
Quoting 332. vongfong2014:

Come to my blog for some more info. Please come!


Please come to my blog! I beggeth thee! :p
The GFS and ECMWF suggest the possibility of an area of disturbed weather capable of generating a surface low could develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in about five days. The GFS is stronger with the feature and eventually forms it into a tropical cyclone heading northwestward, but that's beyond the day five time so we won't go there. Presumably it comes from the tropical wave now moving into the southwestern Caribbean. I noted this as a possibility a few days ago. I think it bears monitoring.
Quoting 334. TimTheWxMan:

How did this blog go from the huge cooldown on the way to ebola?


Dude we talk about all kinds of **** here. You clearly haven't been around long enough yet, Timothy. :)
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
How did this blog go from the huge cooldown on the way to ebola?


Don't know, probably some political instigator with way too much time on their hands came on and brought it up, that's how that subject usually comes up. Haven't read back, really. Came on to check up on Vance.
Quoting 324. Tazmanian:




looks more like a STS this AM


Taz, you mention something interesting that I never really thought much about. That is the lack of frequency of STS in the Pacific vs the Atlantic.
Quoting 321. ScottLincoln:


Google Galileos


LMAO! *adds to lexicon*
i have always thought epac season ends earlier than the atlantic. vance looks like its struggling.
Quoting islander101010:
i have always thought epac season ends earlier than the atlantic. vance looks like its struggling.


Officially they end at the same time, November 30th.
Anyone ever read the "Salem Witch Trials" around 1692. Things got so bad I took my black cat and moved.


I am still looking to the east of the Bahamas. Some models still hold to at least minor development



thanks cyber
looks more like a STS this AM



full of hot air and doesn't amount to much?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 315. Neapolitan:


According to the CDC, the Maine nurse is definitely *not* in the high-risk category; she is, rather, "some risk". And the CDC says asymptomatic individuals in the "some risk" category should abide by the following:

1) Should have direct active monitoring until 21 days after the last potential exposure.

2) Should stay away from public transportation (buses, ships, planes); should stay away from work (though telecommunting is okay); should stay away from crowded public spaces (shopping centers and movie theaters).

3) Outdoor activities are okay, so long as there's separation from others (jogging in a park, or, you know, riding a bicycle on a lonely country road)

That's it. No quarantine, no isolation. And that's precisely what the nurse was doing before Gov. LePage decided his education and experience in the retail business trumped that of hundreds of actual health care professionals, and tried locking her up. The nurse isn't seeking attention; she's making a science-based stand for her civil rights.

Some facts:

Number of Americans killed each year by the flu: 50,000
Number of Americans killed each year from smoking: 450,000
Number of Americans killed each year by obesity: 225,000
Number of Americans killed each year in automobile accidents: 50,000
Number of Americans killed over the past 40 years by Ebola contracted in the United States: 0

Fearmongering is unbecoming and counterproductive, and I wish everyone would stop, already.
I feel so relieved now that Neopolitan has put me at rest....BTW, Love your ice cream
Quoting 332. vongfong2014:

Come to my blog for some more info. Please come!


why are you uesing Retired hurricane names has winter storm names hurricane andrew did a lot of damgs and a lot of people on here may not like it
Quoting 315. Neapolitan:


According to the CDC, the Maine nurse is definitely *not* in the high-risk category; she is, rather, "some risk". And the CDC says asymptomatic individuals in the "some risk" category should abide by the following:

1) Should have direct active monitoring until 21 days after the last potential exposure.

2) Should stay away from public transportation (buses, ships, planes); should stay away from work (though telecommunting is okay); should stay away from crowded public spaces (shopping centers and movie theaters).

3) Outdoor activities are okay, so long as there's separation from others (jogging in a park, or, you know, riding a bicycle on a lonely country road)

That's it. No quarantine, no isolation. And that's precisely what the nurse was doing before Gov. LePage decided his education and experience in the retail business trumped that of hundreds of actual health care professionals, and tried locking her up. The nurse isn't seeking attention; she's making a science-based stand for her civil rights.

Some facts:

Number of Americans killed each year by the flu: 50,000
Number of Americans killed each year from smoking: 450,000
Number of Americans killed each year by obesity: 225,000
Number of Americans killed each year in automobile accidents: 50,000
Number of Americans killed over the past 40 years by Ebola contracted in the United States: 0

Fearmongering is unbecoming and counterproductive, and I wish everyone would stop, already.

But, but, terrorism? Kills millions of Americans each year, doesn't it? Grisly!
351. MahFL
Fearmongering is unbecoming and counterproductive, and I wish everyone would stop, already.


We had a Halloween costume competition at work today, someone came dressed in Ebola protective clothing...raised a few eyebrows.