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95L No Big Deal; 100 Feared Dead, 300 Missing in Sri Lanka Landslide

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on October 29, 2014

An area of disturbed weather (95L) associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough of low pressure is a few hundred miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is headed northwestward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 95L has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, but high wind shear of 25 - 30 knots is keeping the thunderstorms disorganized. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L has dry air to its west that is likely interfering with development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are warm, about 29°C. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain a high 20 - 30 knots through Friday, then increase to 30 - 50 knots Saturday and Sunday. These high wind shear values make development conditions marginal through Friday, then almost impossible beginning on Saturday. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict development of 95L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30%. The only land area at risk from 95L is Bermuda.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar in Arabian Sea steadily weakening
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, Cyclone Nilofar has weakened to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds after peaking on Tuesday as the third strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian sea--a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. With wind shear a high 30 - 40 knots and expected to increase, plus very dry air from the deserts of the Middle East to its west being driven into its core, rapid weakening and dissipation before landfall is expected.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar in the Arabian Sea on Wednesday afternoon, October 29, 2014. At the time, Nilofar was a weakening Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Nilofar's 130 mph sustained winds on Tuesday made it the third strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind the 165 mph winds of Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, and the 145 mph winds of Category 4 Cyclone Phet of 2010, which also did heavy damage in Oman. Fourth place is held jointly by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A) of 1999, which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Eastern Pacific disturbance 93E near tropical depression status
Satellite images show that a well-organized area of disturbed weather with a modest area of heavy thunderstorms in the Eastern Pacific, a few hundred miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border (Invest 93E), is close to tropical depression status. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the system, and in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development near 100%. The storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico over the next four days, but our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks--the GFS and European models--forecast that 93E will get pulled to the northeast by a trough of low pressure early next week, and make landfall in Mainland Mexico northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday.


Figure 3. Sri Lankan residents stand near a damaged building at the site of a landslide caused by heavy monsoon rains in Koslanda village in central Sri Lanka on October 29, 2014. Photo credit: Ishara S.KODIKARA/AFP/Getty Images.

One hundred feared dead after Sri Lanka monsoon rains trigger landslide
Torrential monsoon rains in Sri Lanka over the past two weeks triggered a deadly mudslide that hit the Meeriyabedda tea plantation near the town of Haldummulla, about 200 km (120 miles) east of the capital Colombo, in Sri Lanka Wednesday at 07:30 local time (02:30 GMT). According to Reuters, approximately 100 people are feared dead and 300 are missing, which would make the landslide one of the deadliest weather-related disasters of 2014. Some of the houses in the landslide were buried in 30 ft (9m) of mud.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters.... So sad in a country that can't help themselves...
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
We can bitch and complain, but can you imagine how it is to live in some of these poor 3rd world countries....?
Thanks Doc.



Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Thanks for the new blog, Doc. Funny how critical global reports such as the Sri Lankan landslide first come from a online weather community rather than some mass media outlet. I appreciate the hard work and info.
Quoting 6. LongIslandBeaches:

Thanks for the new blog, Doc. Funny how critical global reports such as the Sri Lankan landslide first come from a online weather community rather than some mass media outlet. I appreciate the hard work and info.


Hmmmm...
Thanks For the 95L update.
I fear this Indian Ocean activity maybe yet a sign of more trouble to come.
INvest 95l looking good anybody wanna chat about tropics or winter storm names?


nice fall pictures!
14. JRRP
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Appears low level circulation is heading west...........


Link

it's exposed
Im going to name my own winter storms this winter. (ONLY significant ones.)
My winter storm names: andrew bacon charley dracula elsa french toast geode harry igor jane kenny luna mars nemo octan pen quadria relish sandy ty ursula vacuum wuar xavier yeller zumberto
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
We can bitch and complain, but can you imagine how it is to live in some of these poor 3rd world countries....?
It can be pretty bad. You can see part of the problem in the background, with a steep hillside that's be deforested and terraced for growing crops. There are even some old landslide scars visible in the right background. The one thing I wouldn't be doing is standing where those people are looking at the results of the last landslide, since another one might occur at any minute.
Quoting 17. vongfong2014:

My winter storm names: andrew bacon charley dracula elsa french toast geode harry igor jane kenny luna mars nemo octan pen quadria relish sandy ty ursula vacuum wuar xavier yeller zumberto
..Not Major Winter Storm Relish.....There would be no survivors..:)
Quoting vongfong2014:
My winter storm names: andrew bacon charley dracula elsa french toast geode harry igor jane kenny luna mars nemo octan pen quadria relish sandy ty ursula vacuum wuar xavier yeller zumberto
I like those names, except Sandy's probably not a good choice. :-) I don't know if it's just me but I see no post count or join date info under your post. When did you join?
Quoting 20. sar2401:

I like those names, except Sandy's probably not a good choice. :-) I don't know if it's just me but I see no post count or join date info under your post. When did you join?
This month I was origanally Haiyan2013 but forgot my password. For some info on the possible northest storm head to my new (and first blog.)
Quoting vongfong2014:
This month I was origanally Haiyan2013 but forgot my password. For some info on the possible northest storm head to my new (and first blog.)
Oh, that's what happened. A glitch in the WU software (which has been there for the entire ten years I've belonged) resets your post count when you post your first blog.


GFS getting on board with the EURO solution. Should be interesting...
wxrisk only sees snow as far south as the virginias


Wxrisk.com
23 mins · Edited ·
** UPDATE ON POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ***
All the weather models continue show a pretty significant system is still going to the develop for Friday night Saturday and Saturday night across the middle Atlantic states and up towards New England. The overnight models continue to show a trend to the south which means that the second Low... the one associated with a main piece of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere ...is going to develop over North Carolina and off the Virginia Coast.
We can see this on the early Wednesday morning European model but the GFS the Canadians are very very close to the EURO solution. They all show the main low developing over North Carolina and off the Virginia Coast.
I personally think this is too far south given the fact that its November and NOT January. But if this trend continues.... and the models are correct.. This places the coldest air --- all was to the northwest side of the Low - over the location which is also going to be with the highest elevated terrain. Because of this ... the early Wednesday morning GFS and European models show accumulating snow fall over central and eastern portions a West Virginia... into the far southwest portions of Virginia -- west of Roanoke .
There also could be .. COULD ...some small/ MINOR accumulations of snowfall over Northwest Virginia and Central Maryland...west of highway 15. This would cover much of the Shenandoah Valley.
Again if the models are correct on this .., and this south shift does end up being the correct solution... it would mean that the main snow which swing out east of New Jersey New York City and CT.
Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

A WITCH`S BREW OF RAIN...WIND... COLD... AND SNOW WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND AS WE
START NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO FLORIDA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS. APPRECIABLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE APPALACHIANS AND LEE OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE AMPLIFICATION.
Quoting 24. wilsongti45:



GFS getting on board with the EURO solution. Should be interesting...
Looks Like a nasty weekend for the northeast huh
Quoting 27. LargoFl:

Looks Like a nasty weekend for the northeast huh

Weather in the northeast is pretty bleak going into November anyway. Might as well root on some nor'easters.
GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FLIPPING... FLOPPING...
AND FLOUNDERING... THE GUIDANCE HAVE STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARD A
COMMON SOLUTION WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DIGGING MID-UPPER PATTERN OVER
THE EAST COAST AND A COMPLEMENTARY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE AND
OPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST. GIVEN THE ONGOING SHUFFLING OF
SOLUTIONS... HAVE OPTED TO USE A MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND SINCE
THE EVOLUTION REMAINS SENSITIVE TO UPSTREAM DETAILS NOT YET FULLY
RESOLVED. THIS ALSO CONTINUES THE WPC BLEND TREND OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WHICH HAS OFFERED MORE STRUCTURED/INCREMENTAL CHANGES.

AS THE EASTERN TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE WESTERN TROUGH APPEARS READY
TO SPLIT DOWNSTREAM OF A QUICKENING 150+ KT JET SOUTH OF ALASKA.
06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ALIGN RATHER WELL WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS
TAKING THE NORTHERN ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE LINGERING ENERGY OVER NW MEXICO. TRENDED TOWARD MORE
ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS THOUGH OVERALL
AGREEMENT APPEARS NEAR OR BETTER THAN AVERAGE FOR THAT LEAD TIME.
EVEN OFFSHORE THE PAC NW... MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT
ON A SFC WAVE NEAR 130W BE NEXT WED... THOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE
HAPPENSTANCE THAN ANYTHING.
pretty huge spread in the forecast high for Tampa on Saturday. Weather Channel has a high of 66, so does WU app. tbo.com has a high of 79. That makes very little sense for three days out.
If this forecast hold true, it will be 21 days in a row that we've had beautiful weather.

7 Day for Fort Myers, Fl.

sfla cat 5 they need 2 lower the temps 2 the 40
Local Tampa ABC weather has 72/73 for the weekend.
Quoting vongfong2014:
My winter storm names: andrew bacon charley dracula elsa french toast geode harry igor jane kenny luna mars nemo octan pen quadria relish sandy ty ursula vacuum wuar xavier yeller zumberto

Here is my naming list.
Albus-character in Harry Potter
Brian-Common name, also one of Dumbledore's middle names
Casey-think Casey's general store
Danny-Hurricane of 1980 or so.
Elisha: uncommon name
Frosty: frosty the snowman
Ganon: 'You dare bring light to my lair? YOU MUST DIE!!!!'
Henriette: Hurricane Henriette 2013
Ivan: Hurricane Ivan 2004
Justin: common name
Kyle: Hurricane Kyle 2008
Larry: Ts Larry 2003
Mary: 'Mary had a little lamb'
Nate: Hurricane nate 2005/2011
Ollie: 'I'm gonna ollie over that rock'
Pete: Weird pete from KODT
Quincy: Quincy, Illinois
Rita: Hurricane Rita 2005
Stan: Hurricane Stan 2005
Tony: Ts Tony 2012
Unala: Ts Unala 2013
Vince: Hurricane Vince 2005
Walter: Common name
Yipper: Dog's name
Zeus: Greek god of the sky
I really hope we get to Ganon. I will be naming all of them.
Criteria: Winter weather advisory must be issued for confirmed name.
Winter storm watch will get an unconfirmed name.

Vongfong 2014: Comments on your names:
All good, and french toast is the funniest.


Quoting eddye:
sfla cat 5 they need 2 lower the temps 2 the 40


They actually lowered it from where they had it yesterday.
It will be close. It might only get down to around 50 or low 50s in the city because of its location closer to the coast and on the river (water temps still around 80 degrees).

Out on Sanible and Captiva Island, it will probably only get down in the mid 50s.

Out at my location (S.E. of the city/suburbs) it will probably get down in the upper 40s. I'm about 10 miles inland from the GOM.
Not sure if this close up view of the rocket lauch was posted, what an explosion

12Z GFS and CMC now has low to mid 40's in S FL

Quoting 34. 62901IL:


Here is my naming list.
Albus-character in Harry Potter
Brian-Common name, also one of Dumbledore's middle names
Casey-think Casey's general store
Danny-Hurricane of 1980 or so.
Elisha: uncommon name
Frosty: frosty the snowman
Ganon: 'You dare bring light to my lair? YOU MUST DIE!!!!'
Henriette: Hurricane Henriette 2013
Ivan: Hurricane Ivan 2004
Justin: common name
Kyle: Hurricane Kyle 2008
Larry: Ts Larry 2003
Mary: 'Mary had a little lamb'
Nate: Hurricane nate 2005/2011
Ollie: 'I'm gonna ollie over that rock'
Pete: Weird pete from KODT
Quincy: Quincy, Illinois
Rita: Hurricane Rita 2005
Stan: Hurricane Stan 2005
Tony: Ts Tony 2012
Unala: Ts Unala 2013
Vince: Hurricane Vince 2005
Walter: Common name
Yipper: Dog's name
Zeus: Greek god of the sky


My winter storm names: No offense to the people who are throwing out their ideas for winter storm names, but the whole thing is a ratings ploy by the weather channel. I never liked their idea.
Thanks Jeff...

Quoting TimTheWxMan:


My winter storm names: No offense to the people who are throwing out their ideas for winter storm names, but the whole thing is a ratings ploy by the weather channel. I never liked their idea.
I liked the idea, and i started in 2012. In 2012, the Christmas blizzard was unnamed, and we went to Eddie before we ran out of storms.
In 2013, we got to Maggie. The first name on the list was Andy, which was the best of the season.

Big 3 for 2013-2014 winter: Andy, Ida, Lauren.
cold sflorida cat 5
Does the NWS still feel this way about naming Winter storms?

From Wiki
In a November 2012 memo, it requested that its employees avoid referring to storms by name.

"The National Weather Service does not name winter storms because a winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins."
Link
Record Low - Fort Myers
Nov.1 - 44 degrees
Nov.2 - 49 degrees

We could break the record on Nov. 2

Have another..

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,
Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:

Record Low - Fort Myers
Nov.1 - 44 degrees
Nov.2 - 49 degrees

We could break the record on Nov. 2


we will have a good idea by Friday.....it is a weird one...
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:

Does the NWS still feel this way about naming Winter storms?

From Wiki
In a November 2012 memo, it requested that its employees avoid referring to storms by name.

"The National Weather Service does not name winter storms because a winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins."
Link


It's how I feel about winter storm naming.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Does the NWS still feel this way about naming Winter storms?

From Wiki
In a November 2012 memo, it requested that its employees avoid referring to storms by name.

"The National Weather Service does not name winter storms because a winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins."
Link
Yes, they do. Someone asked about a winter storm by name on the BMX FB page last winter and was told that the NWS didn't have information about a storm with that name. They've been pretty clear they're not going to get sucked into that game. I think they figure they take enough grief about naming tropical cyclones as it is with adding winter to the mix. :-)
Quoting 36. VAbeachhurricanes:

Not sure if this close up view of the rocket lauch was posted, what an explosion



Poor kids, lol.
Quoting 36. VAbeachhurricanes:

Not sure if this close up view of the rocket lauch was posted, what an explosion



Yikes, that was nasty. Much better than what I have seen posted. Thanks for that one....
Quoting 22. sar2401:

Oh, that's what happened. A glitch in the WU software (which has been there for the entire ten years I've belonged) resets your post count when you post your first blog.


That glitch happened to me too.
WATCH LIVE: An Atlas V rocket is scheduled to be launched at 1:21 this afternoon from the Kennedy Space Center, and you can watch the live stream here: http://bit.ly/1rSJux2
Quoting BobinTampa:
pretty huge spread in the forecast high for Tampa on Saturday. Weather Channel has a high of 66, so does WU app. tbo.com has a high of 79. That makes very little sense for three days out.


Tampa NWS has 72/49. Other sources tend to exaggerate one way or the other to attract viewership or site clicks.

Saturday Sunny, with a high near 72. North northwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 49. North wind 8 to 10 mph.
Quoting 54. SFLWeatherman:

WATCH LIVE: An Atlas V rocket is scheduled to be launched at 1:21 this afternoon from the Kennedy Space Center, and you can watch the live stream here: http://bit.ly/1rSJux2


Hope it doesn't end up like the one yesterday.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


That glitch happened to me too.
Like I wrote, it's been going on for at least 10 years now. I'm sure it's moving up on the to-do list with a bullet now though...:-)
58. SLU
TS force winds


Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Record Low - Fort Myers
Nov.1 - 44 degrees
Nov.2 - 49 degrees

We could break the record on Nov. 2

Not much chance we'll do any record breaking here. Record low for November 1 was 26 and November 2 was 28. Low for Saturday night might get near freezing (34) but I can't see it getting below freezing here.
fl geting cold latest gfs
Record is 51 for WPB!
Quoting 59. sar2401:

Not much chance we'll do any record breaking here. Record low for November 1 was 26 and November 2 was 28. Low for Saturday night might get near freezing (34) but I can't see it getting below freezing here.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Not sure if this close up view of the rocket lauch was posted, what an explosion

Wowsers! Looks and sounds like they're were a bunch of secondary explosions after the rocket impacted the ground. I'll say one though - the little kids in the background of that video handled the explosion a lot better than the "pros" on the other video that was posted, and they were a lot closer to the launch site.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Record is 51 for WPB!
I think you won't have any problem beating that low as long as you're not right on the coast. Inland locations should get down into the high 40's.
broward should get into the upper 40
Quoting 61. SFLWeatherman:

Record is 51 for WPB!



Models are 42 by me on the northside of Orlando based off the latest GFS. Looking ahead at the Euro Weeklies and I gotta tell ya the pattern looks as if the Arctic Cold is really going to be hitting the Central & Eastern US hard in November combined with a very wet southern US as the Euro is really cranking out storms rolling across the south. The question will be will there be any snow or ice for some areas or even severe weather events given this pattern the Euro is showing. Something to watch as 1976/1977, 1969/1970, 2002/2003, or 2009/2010 winter maybe be a good analogs for this upcoming Winter.
November on NJ shore: wet, grey, cold, windy, ice, but not really cold enough for snow. Surf can be good but it's when you start wearing your 5/4 with boots, gloves and hoodies. You realize the nicest weather is behind you until late March/early April. Running on boardwalk with booger snots on your gloves. Too cold to ride a bicycle and too far to drive to ski. Everyone starts lifting weights at the gym and eating and partying way too much. Lol, might as well root for a big gale and watch the ocean turn into a full frothy frenzy with brown sea foam bombs.

November in Maine: Your 8 days of summer are a long, distant memory. You and fifty other people waited too long to get your snowblower repaired and you're also desparately trying to fire up your generator to make sure it works. You hear fairy tales about far away lands where outdoor plants actually grow after September, but you brush it off saying It can't possibly be true. The oil people want 100% prepayment for 100 gallons of #2 heating oil; and even though the price per barrel is the lowest in 5+ years, you're paying the same price as last year. Still, you've got your season pass to Sunday River and are saying bring it on Nor'easter...I wan't freshies on White Heat. But first you have to find your goggles which you forgot you lost when you wiped out during drunken pond skimming last April.

Quoting 28. wilsongti45:


Weather in the northeast is pretty bleak going into November anyway. Might as well root on some nor'easters.
stormtracker scott u saying looks like cold weather for fl this winter
Quoting 67. eddye:

stormtracker scott u saying looks like cold weather for fl this winter


Cooler & wetter than average. This Winter pattern is about to lock into place once November comes it appears if these Ensembles are to be believed.
69. JRRP
Quoting SLU:
TS force winds



Nice
stormtracker scott latest gfs has 44 for broward


I'm surprised the epac disturbance is still at 100/100 and isn't a tropical storm.
so u saying fl might see a year like 2010 again stormtracker scott
Quoting 58. SLU:

TS force winds



Isaias is that you ? lol
Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:

If this forecast hold true, it will be 21 days in a row that we've had beautiful weather.

7 Day for Fort Myers, Fl.




Plants and trees starting to go brown yet from all that beautiful weather?

Not that pretty looking, still needs more time, don't turn the oven off yet....
Quoting 70. eddye:

stormtracker scott latest gfs has 44 for broward


I think personally the models are exaggerating the cold to some degree for S FL and the reason is the sea surface temps off FL are still 75 to 80 degree's. Furthermore the winds across SE FL are expected to switch to more of a NNE componet so it will be hard to get lows much past 50 for S FL. Here in C FL or atleast inland C FL should see nice cold air advection.
Quoting 66. HaoleboySurfEC:

November on NJ shore: wet, grey, cold, windy, ice, but not really cold enough for snow. Surf can be good but it's when you start wearing your 5/4 with boots, gloves and hoodies. You realize the nicest weather is behind you until late March/early April. Running on boardwalk with booger snots on your gloves. Too cold to ride a bicycle and too far to drive to ski. Everyone starts lifting weights at the gym and eating and partying way too much. Lol, might as well root for a big gale and watch the ocean turn into a full frothy frenzy with brown sea foam bombs.

November in Maine: Your 8 days of summer are a long, distant memory. You and fifty other people waited too long to get your snowblower repaired and you're also desparately trying to fire up your generator to make sure it works. You hear fairy tales about far away lands where outdoor plants actually grow after September, but you brush it off saying It can't possibly be true. The oil people want 100% prepayment for 100 gallons of #2 heating oil; and even though the price per barrel is the lowest in 5+ years, you're paying the same price as last year. Still, you've got your season pass to Sunday River and are saying bring it on Nor'easter...I wan't freshies on White Heat. But first you have to find your goggles which you forgot you lost when you wiped out during drunken pond skimming last April.



South shore Long Island here. Avid surfer and fisherman. That is a pretty accurate description of what goes down starting this time of year. Perpetually gray, windy and bitter until April. Time for hibernation mode.
nws Miami...................LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EVEN ALONG
THE COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE BY SATURDAY A
CLOSED-H5 LOPRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER
FROPA THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AS A POWERFUL VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND
THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. LAST SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PROJECTED AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE /CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN/ BUILDING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
STATE. THUS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD-AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60F
ALONG THE COAST. NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH METROS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

TYPICAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTRUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE DRY.
82. JRRP
Why won't the images appear even though they're in gif format?
nws tampa says 40's temps sat morning should be north of the I-4 corridor, and on a temp map I saw somewhere..maybe some 30's along the GA/Florida border..whew
send u a msg storm tracker scott
Quoting 88. PedleyCA:




I was trying to post that, but the dam thing doesn't work. :/
Good Afternoon. As noted by Dr. Masters and below, the E-Pac is trying to spin up another storm (in October); the dry air is getting the better of the system at the moment but up to 100%...Looks like a record year for E-Pac systems this year:


Quoting 69Viking:


Plants and trees starting to go brown yet from all that beautiful weather?


Neighborhood sprinklers are keeping everything nice and green, but outside the neighborhood unwatered grassy areas have already turned brown.
This is pretty common during the dry season. Some years we get just enough rain to keep things from dying, but most years unwatered grass, flowers, etc do dry up and die during the dry season.

Quoting 76. 69Viking:



Plants and trees starting to go brown yet from all that beautiful weather?


Yeah, Viking, the lawns sure are. Wet season here ended way too soon. My plants are not looking forward to the kind of cold winter we'll have if the conversations are to be believed, but if we have to have strong cold fronts I sure hope they bring rain.
1st trof with with a very pronounced vort max...



Second trof at 216 hrs...

Quoting 91. hydrus:




Euro showing snow all the way into Columbia, South Carolina now as of the 12Z run light amounts though but heavy amounts up across eastern TN, western NC, and NE GA. Some snow may even make it to the coast of the Carolina's!
Quoting 95. hydrus:

1st trof with with a very pronounced vort max...



Second trof at 216 hrs...




12Z Euro is just insane!

I have never such early snow this far south in the US in early November.
Scott do you have that snow output map ?

Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:



12Z Euro is just insane!

I have never such early snow this far south in the US in early November.
You get to March 1st, you are almost there, but it really doesn't break until close to April 1st. St Patty's day is always chilly and blustery it seems, but 2 weeks later it can be like someone flipped a switch.

I have surfed Long Beach and the also out toward Montauk. All the times I went was really good! Long Beach probably good this weekend, but hard offshores and lots of paddling against that current. Enjoy! I'll be relatively warmer in SC.

Quoting 80. wilsongti45:


South shore Long Island here. Avid surfer and fisherman. That is a pretty accurate description of what goes down starting this time of year. Perpetually gray, windy and bitter until April. Time for hibernation mode.
Quoting 90. TimTheWxMan:



I was trying to post that, but the dam thing doesn't work. :/


You mean it didn't work for you. Review what you did and always use preview to make sure what you did will work. I copied your link then right clicked it and copy link location and used that. Always use preview, always...
102. eddye
cold cold cold weather for fl
Quoting 96. StormTrackerScott:



Euro showing snow all the way into Columbia, South Carolina now as of the 12Z run light amounts though but heavy amounts up across eastern TN, western NC, and NE GA. Some snow may even make it to the coast of the Carolina's!

Accumulating snow will be limited to the mountains of North Carolina, with only light flurries expected across The Piedmont. There's very little chance of snow here along the coast.

This is uncommon, but not unheard of.
Port Saint Lucie will see high/low of 73 and 46 Saturday and 72/56 Sunday.

Excellent!
That would be remarkable.

Quoting 96. StormTrackerScott:



Euro showing snow all the way into Columbia, South Carolina now as of the 12Z run light amounts though but heavy amounts up across eastern TN, western NC, and NE GA. Some snow may even make it to the coast of the Carolina's!
So if 95L is threatening Bermuda, and it has an evident circulation (and a satellite appearance almost exactly like Oscar of 2012), and apparently winds of tropical storm force as per the latest ASCAT... why is it not being given more attention? Is it because it is believed it will not survive? The last time that happened... we had Hanna all of a sudden. Did the NHC end the season after Gonzalo or something?
I'm just basing this on observation, and I'm a tad cranky today having been swamped at work, I just know that this likely would have been given a name in years passed but not this one. I don't care if it isn't supposed to survive very long, if it's a tropical cyclone, it's a tropical cyclone, right? I think it should be given it's due in terms of a recon pass perhaps. 
Not saying it's a tropical cyclone, but it could be a lot closer to one than the orange X would attest to. Given the introduction of the invest, or rather since it's introduction, I don't think there is much of an excuse for any unnamed tropical systems in the post season.
Quoting 105. HaoleboySurfEC:

That would be remarkable.




Snowfall amounts up to 6" across the southern App's with light snow spreading SE from there into South Carolina. Pretty remarkable indeed if this verifies.
12Z Euro. WOW!


can this be broken this weekend?.......................................... ...............................CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1892...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 59 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 29TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 122 YEARS LATER. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF
59 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY
WEST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST
FALL DATE ON WHICH A TEMPERATURE BELOW 60 DEGREES HAS BEEN MEASURED
IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&
Look at what's coming toward FL from the SE. I believe this is the Central Atlantic tropical wave.

Quoting 102. eddye:

cold cold cold weather for fl
snow coming here by the weekend
112. eddye
thats cold storm tracker scott
Quoting LargoFl:
can this be broken this weekend?.......................................... ...............................CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1892...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 59 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 29TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 122 YEARS LATER. THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF
59 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY
WEST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST
FALL DATE ON WHICH A TEMPERATURE BELOW 60 DEGREES HAS BEEN MEASURED
IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&


Wunderground forecasts 64 degrees and the NWS 66 degrees.
So we'll see.
Last I checked on 95L it was almost a naked swirl with the low level circulation headed west and the main convection well off to the east. The shear was dominating.
control canes by cooling?

Link
119. eddye
we may get colder then 2010
Quoting 103. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Accumulating snow will be limited to the mountains of North Carolina, with only light flurries expected across The Piedmont. There's very little chance of snow here along the coast.

This is uncommon, but not unheard of.

Indeed. You would think that after having existed on a diet restricted solely of crow for the past several months that some would learn to stop living and dying by every run of every forecast model. Now, the latest NWO forecasts do indeed call for very cold temperatures across the Carolinas--20s in the mountains and 30s most elsewhere--but measurable snow is expected to fall only on the leeward side of the mountains. The NC Piedmont may see some flurries, as you stated, but accumulations are not expected.

(For the record, Asheville has been as low as 22 on November 1, and Greenville has seen 25 on that date. The current forecast for this outbreak calls for lows in both locations to remain 6-8 degrees warmer. IOW, not a big deal...)
Too far out to really get excited, but the GFS says this coming freeze after Halloween is peanuts to what we'll see a week after that.

122. eddye
rascalnag is those far highs
Indeed. You would think that after having existed on a diet restricted solely of crow for the past several months that some would learn to stop living and dying by every run of every forecast model. Now, the latest NWO forecasts do indeed call for very cold temperatures across the Carolinas--20s in the mountains and 30s most elsewhere--but measurable snow is expected to fall only on the leeward side of the mountains. The NC Piedmont may see some flurries, as you stated, but accumulations are not expected.

(For the record, Asheville has been as low as 22 on November 1, and Greenville has seen 25 on that date. The current forecast for this outbreak calls for lows in both locations to remain 6-8 degrees warmer. IOW, not a big deal...)



darn.....i'm having to agree with you again.....you can google any southern city along with earliest snowfall and it's pretty easy to look up.....as an example atlanta ga....oct 31 1993.....plenty of times the south has gotten cold this early...i don't think i'd call it common...but it's happened enough to be normal
Quoting 122. eddye:

rascalnag is those far highs


Are they highs or lows? I don't think they're either. It's just the predicted temperature at that time.

Also, the ECMWF is onboard with it too, though it seems to keep the cold more to the northeast.



I would love to see some snow, so my fingers are crossed.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


GEM puts a 1007mb low in that area near the same time period.
126. eddye
ell it looks like the Euro was originally right with it's predictions on how strong this weekends East Coast trough would be cause within the past 24-48hrs. the GFS has trended much cooler overall.

This may not be the last cool/cold front within the next 10 days or so, as just now the NAO is negative and expected to stay like this through the first 3-5 days of November with the AO being slightly negative briefly and the PNA going positive as well we could see yet another brief cool down (although much weaker than this weekends) around November 7-9th.

EDIT: 12z GFS has really trended colder with the November 7-9th cold front very similar now to the strength of this weekends trough.
Well, unless it is a super big ticket item, like a 1985 Hurricane Kate in November weakening to a Cat 2 just before landfall in the Florida Panhandle, or a Cat 4 or Cat 5 with beautiful symmetry (hard to do in October and November without killing a bunch of Third World people because it will be in the Caribbean), the Atlantic season has lost all appeal for me. I suppose a storm could form in the Caribbean, hit Cuba, which has excellent civil defense, and then hit Miami. Nothing against Florida. I lived in Florida for a year. No TCs, but I did see a freeze in Orlando around Christmas 1983.



Now, East Pac 93E, the GFS has IMBY written all over that one.

still uncommon though..and I have lived in wilmington all my life and last year in November we broke the record with earliest snowfall ..if we did it again that would be pretty cool..as a native of NC I will find seeing snowflakes or any type of winter precip this early pretty darn spectacular..

and as a reminder there was very little chance last year until the event got closer with our early snowfall..not saying its going to happen but interesting none the less to see the models trending..



While you guys are talking about cold weather, this halloween should be the warmest on record in the UK. The previous record was 19.4C recorded in Kent, but it's expect to be as high as 21C across the southeast on Friday, smashing the record.

I just want next week to hurry up so temperatures will finally go back to normal (11-13C) rather than the 17-21C of the previous and upcoming days. I love cooler weather!
130. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA  (post prepared thru Univ. of Washington)
D&T:: on animation
TYPE:: Watervapor
http://youtu.be/K4kCxmleNOg
Quoting LostTomorrows:
So if 95L is threatening Bermuda, and it has an evident circulation (and a satellite appearance almost exactly like Oscar of 2012), and apparently winds of tropical storm force as per the latest ASCAT... why is it not being given more attention? Is it because it is believed it will not survive? The last time that happened... we had Hanna all of a sudden. Did the NHC end the season after Gonzalo or something?
I'm just basing this on observation, and I'm a tad cranky today having been swamped at work, I just know that this likely would have been given a name in years passed but not this one. I don't care if it isn't supposed to survive very long, if it's a tropical cyclone, it's a tropical cyclone, right? I think it should be given it's due in terms of a recon pass perhaps.
Not saying it's a tropical cyclone, but it could be a lot closer to one than the orange X would attest to. Given the introduction of the invest, or rather since it's introduction, I don't think there is much of an excuse for any unnamed tropical systems in the post season.
Sounds like work is getting the best of you. The low is at 1011 mb, which is pretty high for a depression let alone a storm. The trough is very large, and there are no areas of deep convection around a center. One ASCAT pass does not a TS make, even if shows an area of TS force winds. This is the Atlantic, and almost any low is capable of producing isolated areas of 40 mph winds. The wind shear is still high (20-30 knots) although shear is forecast to weaken in two days, which may allow 95L to strengthen some then, but even higher wind shear and more dry air starts on Saturday. As Dr. Masters wrote, 95L is no big deal now, and it's currently not a threat to Bermuda. If 95L does turn into a TS and the path is toward Bermuda, there's plenty of time between now and then to update the storm and issue warnings.

Hanna was a weird storm with particularly bad model performance, but it was a marginal TS for 12 hours and that was it. Otherwise, it was a TD or just an invest. There could be a case made that Hanna was never a TS, but I'll let the post-season decide that. For now, 93L predictions are being made on what the disturbance is doing today and not speculation about what might happen four of five days from now.
Really need the rain here...hope it can materialize.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Really need the rain here...hope it can materialize.
We just had one tiny cell here that moved right over my house. Really, it wasn't much bigger than my block. I did get 0.06", not exactly a gully washer but more than I expect - which was none. :-) Maybe that line will hold together for you now that we've had a little afternoon heating.
whoohoo.....we're tearing up the rain this fall......


yo ped!!!!!!....you might get a drop or two yourself this coming week



img src="">
Quoting vis0:
CREDIT:: NOAA  (post prepared thru Univ. of Washington)
D&T:: on animation
TYPE:: Watervapor
http://youtu.be/K4kCxmleNOg

Published on Oct 29, 2014
Positive Tropical Weather Formations, by positive i mean creating as apposed to surpressing the joining of charged partuicles & moisture those are nTwF.


If only I could figure out what you're talking about half the time...:-) The Gulf of Mexico isn't exactly bubbling, unless you think a big influx of cold dry air is going to lead to bubbles. People must really wonder who this "Sar" character is who's right about Hanna. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
95..close....vis.loop
Local mets showing a low of 48 for Tampa on Saturday night.
Quoting 121. RascalNag:

Too far out to really get excited, but the GFS says this coming freeze after Halloween is peanuts to what we'll see a week after that.


yeah I was looking at that a few days ago..the following cold front could be really strong
Quoting 139. LargoFl:

yeah I was looking at that a few days ago..the following cold front could be really strong


Isn't that about as accurate as a storm track 10-14 days out?
upcoming low temp.s are good for salt water fishing. nothing like some fried snook. dont get me wrong freshwater catfish is good but snook is a step higher. the problem is the snook are hard to catch. hopefully the drop in temp make them less wary. they like the pink lure. harvest time we hope.
Euro has some very strong winds in this coming weekend storm huh......................
Quoting 140. SunnyDaysFla:



Isn't that about as accurate as a storm track 10-14 days out?
yes ive been looking at the models for it for a few days now and they are consistant,we'll see of course,hopefully it wont have damaging winds with it.
Quoting 108. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro. WOW!




Interesting to say the least.
May be a rain/snow mix............................................... ...................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS LATE
THIS WEEK. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.



$$
looks like sat night sunday morning could be interesting east coast huh.................................
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


Isn't that about as accurate as a storm track 10-14 days out?
Yes, it is. The models are good at trends, not specifics. Most of the models are trending colder for the eastern half of the US for the first two weeks of November. Given that, I wouldn't want to go out and plant a banana tree. There's a good article about temperature forecast accuracy that shows how variable the 1 day, 5 day, and 10 day temperature forecasts are from the actuals. At 10 days, the ..."forecast overestimated the high temperature by as much as 8 degrees and underestimated it up to 17 degrees...". Although this article only compared high temperature forecast accuracy, low temperature forecast accuracy is a little worse. Given that, I'd be loath to look at a 10 day model's specific temperature forecast and believe it was something I could use to bet the mortgage. :-)
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like sat night sunday morning could be interesting east coast huh.................................
The East Coast will just have a cold rain. Where it will be interesting is the mountains of North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia. There's a good chance of some accumulating snow there, as well as the lake effect snow belt from Erie PA up to Buffalo and Watertown NY. That's where predicting the amount and duration snow is a real challenge. Whatever snow we get from this weekend's front, the highest totals may be up in the snow belt, not further east.
Quoting LargoFl:
Euro has some very strong winds in this coming weekend storm huh......................
Not all that strong except maybe some 45 mph winds on Cape Cod. The highest winds should stay well out to sea from this storm.
Yes, I see that.

Quoting 129. Envoirment:

While you guys are talking about cold weather, this halloween should be the warmest on record in the UK. The previous record was 19.4C recorded in Kent, but it's expect to be as high as 21C across the southeast on Friday, smashing the record.

I just want next week to hurry up so temperatures will finally go back to normal (11-13C) rather than the 17-21C of the previous and upcoming days. I love cooler weather!



Indeed. The new autumn/winter starts as the last winter/spring has ended: too warm. I wonder whether once again some meadow flowers on my German balcony will blossom all winter like they did last year while you guys in the US complain about some Polar Vortex ;-)

Temperature anomaly forecast for November 1 by GFS:

Click to enlarge. Source; click "Animation" to see the whole development.
153. JRRP

Amazing how much effect that little upper level system ( Vort Max ) will have on the weather..It is one fast mover too...Its presently over Nunavut..Its forecast to move about 2000 miles in 2 days.



Quoting 150. Sfloridacat5:





So I suppose after the torrential downpours of Nov 1st that Pedley will be thrashing about in some sort of ecstatic frenzy in the fog bound aftermath of the 2nd of Nov?
The reality of the situation seems to be as always that a lot of places who need some sun and dry times, are involved in landslides and major problems!
Meanwhile nobody seems to be mentioning the problems facing southern China with major floods?

As is more and more apparent the climatic changes which might "just" be threatening us are going unreported, the selected news which we absorb, like some dried out sponge is directed to home base.

We are becoming more and more concerned about the lack of rain where its needed or most wanted, after all without water there are always problems.
Simply nothing else more to complain about tonight, other than we in southern Europe are experiencing temps of the upper 20s/C and records for the month of October higher than in "recorded history." Up to 30/C tomorrow.
Interesting that in Southern Norway they have had about 10 inches of rain in the last 3 days, needless to say, another historical record!
Whatever next? Stay safe.
It looks like California might get a bit of precipitation

Quoting hydrus:
Amazing how much effect that little upper level system ( Vort Max ) will have on the weather..It is one fast mover too...Its presently over Nunavut..Its forecast to move about 2000 miles in 2 days.

I was looking at that a little bit ago. I think the GFS may a little too fast with that low. It would have to average 40 mph for the whole trip and, even for an Arctic low, that seems too fast. The forecasters have been having a real problem with the GFS and timing, each model run moving the low faster or slower by a couple of hours. How fast it moves and exactly where it's at on Saturday has a big outcome on how cold it gets down here. A slower low means we'll be closer to the trough and be at the bottom of the current forecast range while a faster mover puts the low further east and north. Even a couple of hundred miles change means the difference between chilly or a frost for us.
While weather in Germany/Central Europe is mild and uneventful these days I keep on looking to Norway (remember the remarkable hot summer they've experienced in Scandinavia this year):

Severe flooding hits West Norway
The Local (Norway), Published: 29 Oct 2014 09:03 GMT+01:00
Homes have been evacuated and people left stranded or homeless after major floods hit the West of Norway on Tuesday. ...



And if you wonder whether mountain "Mannen" in Western Norway finally tumbled down to the steep valley as the country - led by their poor geologists - anxiously awaited: it didn't so far. I've read today that they're now considering to throw water bombs from helicopters onto the unstable part of the mountain to clear the situation for the inhabitants in this valley and for all who use the important European road down there.

Prof. Petley with his much appreciated landslide blog caught up to the case today and provides interesting links:

29 October 2014: Mount Mannen in Norway: an imminent large rockslide


Here's an impressive video with views from a helicopter to the dangerous site.
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like California might get a bit of precipitation

Looks like the computer is really making some strange color combinations on that rainbow. :-)
Quoting 156. Grothar:

It looks like California might get a bit of precipitation




The question is if it'll be in the form of rain, snow, snow pellets, snow grains, ice crystals, sleet, hail, graupel, drizzle, freezing drizzle, freezing rain, freezing fog, or any combination of the above. :)
Quoting 3. PalmBeachWeather:

We can bitch and complain, but can you imagine how it is to live in some of these poor 3rd world countries....?


3rd world? Sri Lanka?!? Poverty under 9%, unemployment under 5%? Second highest per-capita income in the region?

I'm pretty happy in the good ol' US of A, but it's because I like it here. I'm pretty sure most US states would trade those numbers. Just because migrant farmers harvest tea in part of the country doesn't make it 3rd world.
Here's a bit fro the Norway situation:-

"Morten Kronen of Hordaland police said to NTB: “The volume of water is so enormous that it gouges out the ground under the houses. We have evacuated more than 30 people and luckily no one was hurt.”



There is a further danger from mudslides on the eastside of the river and police had to evacuate 15 locals in the early hours of Wednesday morning.



Many homes and vehicles have been lost in the flooding, and a gas station in Odda is at risk of the water digging out the fuel tanks stored underground. The local fire department are monitoring the situation.



Kronen said: “The situation is far from being under control. The houses being taken by the river will soon come to a closed off bridge south in Odda, and we are paying close attention to the situation together with the army and the fire department.”

Here's the link for reading:-
Link
163. JRRP
Quoting barbamz:
While weather in Germany/Central Europe is mild and uneventful these days I keep on looking to Norway (remember the remarkable hot summer they've experienced in Scandinavia this year):

Severe flooding hits West Norway
The Local (Norway), Published: 29 Oct 2014 09:03 GMT+01:00
Homes have been evacuated and people left stranded or homeless after major floods hit the West of Norway on Tuesday. ...



And if you wonder whether mountain "Mannen" in Western Norway finally tumbled down to the steep valley as the country - led by their poor geologists - anxiously awaited: it didn't so far. I've read today that they're now considering to throw water bombs from helicopters onto the unstable part of the mountain to clear the situation for the inhabitants in this valley and for all who use the important European road down there.

Prof. Petley with his much appreciated landslide blog caught up to the case today and provides interesting links:

29 October 2014: Mount Mannen in Norway: an imminent large rockslide


Here's an impressive video with views from a helicopter to the dangerous site.
Google Translate sure thinks it's a "man" according to the headline -

The man can tolerate less and less

Looks like that video was done on Monday and they expected the mountain to slide at any minute. Have you heard of any updates? That sure looks like of foreboding area to have for a holiday home.
Quoting 164. sar2401:

Google Translate sure thinks it's a "man" according to the headline -

The man can tolerate less and less

Looks like that video was done on Monday and they expected the mountain to slide at any minute. Have you heard of any updates? That sure looks like of foreboding area to have for a holiday home.


"Mannen" means "male/man" in Nowegian (Gro?) which produces funny results if you try to google it or search for news by twitter without additional cues, lol. And as I've written in my post: No, the landslide didn't happen so far, and this is the problem.
Quoting 157. sar2401:


I was looking at that a little bit ago. I think the GFS may a little too fast with that low. It would have to average 40 mph for the whole trip and, even for an Arctic low, that seems too fast. The forecasters have been having a real problem with the GFS and timing, each model run moving the low faster or slower by a couple of hours. How fast it moves and exactly where it's at on Saturday has a big outcome on how cold it gets down here. A slower low means we'll be closer to the trough and be at the bottom of the current forecast range while a faster mover puts the low further east and north. Even a couple of hundred miles change means the difference between chilly or a frost for us.
I bet a slice of pizza max makes it to the parade on time...pfft...
Rare and ugly weather news from an unfortunately failed state (Libya) in which I've spent 4 years of my childhood, long long ago:

Light flooding in Benghazi causes havoc with mountains of waste
Libya Herald, October 29, 2014, by Adam Ali.
Temps keep dropping for my area of S.W. Florida. Looks like the N.E. flow will keep the westcoast colder.
Quoting 167. barbamz:

Rare and ugly weather news from an unfortunately failed state (Libya) in which I've spent 4 years of my childhood, long long ago:

Light flooding in Benghazi causes havoc with mountains of waste
Libya Herald, October 29, 2014, by Adam Ali.



------------------

And these totally different news aren't very encouraging, too:

An Ill Wind Blows in Antarctica, Threatens Global Flooding
Climate Central, Published: October 29th, 2014

(Sorry, didn't mean to quote myself. I've hit the wrong button. Time to say "Good night" I guess, lol).
Quoting JazzChi:


3rd world? Sri Lanka?!? Poverty under 9%, unemployment under 5%? Second highest per-capita income in the region?

I'm pretty happy in the good ol' US of A, but it's because I like it here. I'm pretty sure most US states would trade those numbers. Just because migrant farmers harvest tea in part of the country doesn't make it 3rd world.
Sri Lanka has made a remarkable recovery since the end of the long civil war there. I think the UN places the country as an "emerging economy". It's a beautiful country and a nice place for tourists now. I was there in 2011 and the urban areas show very little evidence of the civil war. Not so in rural areas though, where people are much poorer. Even though they've more than tripled their nominal GDP since 2009, it's still only about $3500 per capita. By comparison, Paraguay's GDP is $4700 per capita. Mississipi, the poorest state in the union, has a nominal GDP of about $19,000. Sri Lanka looks good for the region but I don't think any US state would want to trade economies.
Quoting barbamz:
Rare and ugly weather news from an unfortunately failed state (Libya) in which I've spent 4 years of my childhood, long long ago:

Light flooding in Benghazi causes havoc with mountains of waste
Libya Herald, October 29, 2014, by Adam Ali.
I didn't know they ever got enough rain for flooding in Benghazi but I guess it must be like the monsoonal rains we get in the SW desert regions here. What a mess Libya has become. Qaddafi wasn't a nice guy, but NATO removing him by assassination with no other leader in place has made the lives of the average Libyan much worse economically.
might be damaging winds up in the northeast sunday huh...............................................
Quoting barbamz:


------------------

And these totally different news aren't very encouraging, too:

An Ill Wind Blows in Antarctica, Threatens Global Flooding
Climate Central, Published: October 29th, 2014

(Sorry, didn't mean to quote myself. I've hit the wrong button. Time to say "Good night" I guess, lol).
Goodnight, Sunshine. :-)
Quoting 173. sar2401:

Goodnight, Sunshine. :-)


Good evening over there, my true eyesight, lol.

---------------------

On a much darker side:
As the link in doc's entry to the horrific news from Sri Lanka (Reuters) doesn't work, here's an substitute. And here an update from AP, Oct 30.


Aerial footage starts at 1:56. Shocking that maybe around 300 people could have lost their lives because of this quite unimpressive looking landslide. I really hope those numbers will go down tomorrow.

... Bye now.
Quoting barbamz:


"Mannen" means "male/man" in Nowegian (Gro?) which produces funny results if you try to google it or search for news by twitter without additional cues, lol. And as I've written in my post: No, the landslide didn't happen so far, and this is the problem.
Ah, I missed the part when the slide still hasn't occurred yet. I wonder what they mean by "water bombs"? It's hard to picture something like 450 pounds of water having much effect on a gigantic slide like that.
Quoting hydrus:
I bet a slice of pizza max makes it to the parade on time...pfft...
Depends on what parade. 34 degrees will be OK. Two degrees cooler for more than a few hours means having to haul a lot of container plants into the garage, turn on the heater in there, and then hauling them all back outside again when it warms up. I wish I knew which one it was going to be before I went through all that work.
Quoting 175. sar2401:

Ah, I missed the part when the slide still hasn't occurred yet. I wonder what they mean by "water bombs"? It's hard to picture something like 450 pounds of water having much effect on a gigantic slide like that.


Tampering by using airborne water might accelerate the rock sliding process but at the end of the day its probably inevitable that gravity will prevail.
61/84 today with a touch of humidity from the seabreeze when it came in around 4:30
Quoting PlazaRed:

Tampering by using airborne water might accelerate the rock sliding process but at the end of the day its probably inevitable that gravity will prevail.
If they really want to get the slide moving so they stop what sounds like a lake may be backing up behind the slide, that would make some sense. I can see how high explosive bombs, artillery rounds, or air to ground rockets might be able to be targeted at the right spots (or what geologists think are the right spots) on the slide to assist gravity. 120,000 cubic meters is a heck of lot of rock going the wrong way if you make a mistake though.
What do you think 95L will turn into.
A-nothing
B-TD
C-TS
D-IDK

I think A or B.
183. ch2os
Quoting 104. rmbjoe1954:

Port Saint Lucie will see high/low of 73 and 46 Saturday and 72/56 Sunday.

Excellent!


And Ft. Pierce appreciates those cooler temps too. Ok, at least I will.
95L captured by Aqua

Quoting 161. JazzChi:



3rd world? Sri Lanka?!? Poverty under 9%, unemployment under 5%? Second highest per-capita income in the region?

I'm pretty happy in the good ol' US of A, but it's because I like it here. I'm pretty sure most US states would trade those numbers. Just because migrant farmers harvest tea in part of the country doesn't make it 3rd world.


Sri Lanka has a significantly higher Human Development Index (HDI) than other neighboring countries in the region.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Have you gotten any rain yet. I had another shower pass through, so I'm up to 0.12". Woohoo! Better than nothing though. It looks like the few remaining storms are down by you and over in Georgia now as the nightly clutter starts to obscure the radar image. The clutter has been every night lately and makes it so I can barely read the image by 9:00.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just to the
northeast of the Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast and north of the Leeward
Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
190. eddye
southfla cat 5 wow it getting colder


very windy and rain for the northeast and big football game to patriots vs denver!!!
Quoting 190. eddye:

southfla cat 5 wow it getting colder
DOOM!!
Quoting 191. hurricanes2018:



very windy and rain for the northeast and big football game to patriots vs denver!!!
Those 2 teams are used to it. Especially, if it ends up being a snowstorm. Should make for an interesting game though. I wonder if the Bills are at home, might see some lake effect snow this weekend as well.
Yes, the mountain in Norway is indeed called "the man", but mannen also can mean husband.

It is a very well known mountain and has always been very closely watched. For information only it is in a very beautiful scenic area not far from where we once lived, between and Åndalsnes and Dombås.
Quoting 188. sar2401:

Have you gotten any rain yet. I had another shower pass through, so I'm up to 0.12". Woohoo! Better than nothing though. It looks like the few remaining storms are down by you and over in Georgia now as the nightly clutter starts to obscure the radar image. The clutter has been every night lately and makes it so I can barely read the image by 9:00.

Getting it big time now! So glad
Good evening all! I see that many are getting exciting about a forecasted trough, and the possibility of snow.

As for me, I don't think I'll ever like cold weather, much less snow. :)
only the GFS..but just showing the eastern trend its been doing all day..

00z GFS Snow Depth Map 92 hour



18z GFS Snow Depth map..hour 72
Would love it if we got another winter weather event here on the Gulf Coast.

I rarely get that excited.. that was pure ecstasy.
199. beell
Quoting 194. Grothar:



...It is a very well known mountain and has always been very closely watched. For information only it is in a very beautiful scenic area not far from where we once lived, between and Åndalsnes and Dombås.


How you pronounce that one, Gro?
200. JRRP
Wow 95L reminds me of a weaker version of TS Chris 2006 at the same location
Quoting JRRP:

it's exposed
If 95L continúes due west,like is doing now, it may stand a chance to reach TD status....
Quoting 201. wunderkidcayman:

Wow 95L reminds me of a weaker version of TS Chris 2006 at the same location

Scott posted something with the European Model and GEM showing something tropical heading to florida at around 192 hrs....... from Caribbean.....whats up with that?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Wow 95L reminds me of a weaker version of TS Chris 2006 at the same location
It's exactly what it is...
Quoting 164. sar2401:

Google Translate sure thinks it's a "man" according to the headline -

The man can tolerate less and less

Looks like that video was done on Monday and they expected the mountain to slide at any minute. Have you heard of any updates? That sure looks like of foreboding area to have for a holiday home.
Just another case of people living where they shouldn't. Look at the small mudslide that killed an unknown number of people. Did anyone notice the deforestation of the hills behind them? Yap seems to maintain it's population. Maybe all other island nations can look too Yap for guidance. The great and mighty communist Castro failed in that endeavor, but at least he saved the environment.
Quoting 199. beell:



How you pronounce that one, Gro?



doom 'aws.
Norway in Winter.



Norway in Summer.

Quoting 196. nigel20:

Good evening all! I see that many are getting exciting about a forecasted trough, and the possibility of snow.

As for me, I don't think I'll ever like cold weather, much less snow. :)
Lol.... snow is one of those things you want to do once, or maybe twice, for the experience.... daily? not so much.... :o)

Evenin', all....
Quoting 207. Grothar:

Norway in Winter.



Norway in Summer.


I like it! Take me with you when you go back. :)
@Grothar, lol!

Though the opposite, the tropics has only minor temperature variations throughout year. Occasionally, we do get cold air from strong polar troughs. But daytime highs, seldom falls below 80F in the winter.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Lol.... snow is one of those things you want to do once, or maybe twice, for the experience.... daily? not so much.... :o)

Evenin', all....


True. How have you been, Baha? Did the cold front provide enough lift, along moisture to produce rain over New providence? We had a cloudy Sunday from the passing front, but not much in the way of showers.
Quoting 212. nigel20:

@Grothar, lol!

Though the opposite, the tropics has only minor temperature variations throughout year. Occasionally, we do get cold air from strong polar troughs. But daytime highs, seldom falls below 80F in the winter.
We get more variation here N of the Tropic, but basically you are right. A super frigid day in Nassau means the temp never breaks 80 degrees. I think our record low high is just below 70, but I'd have to check.
Quoting 213. nigel20:



True. How have you been, Baha? Did the cold front provide enough lift, along moisture to produce rain over New providence? We had a cloudy Sunday from the passing front, but not much in the way of showers.

We had a super clear weekend, with just enough clouds to make it picturesque.... :o) We got a lot of rain between Tuesday and Friday, though, between the front, the low, and the resulting trough.... plus this week temps have stayed in the 70s overnight, which is a real relief after the relentless heat of September and early October.
Quoting 209. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I like it! Take me with you when you go back. :)


Actually, Norway on the west coast has a surprisingly mild climate for being so far north. There is even debate yet today about whether it is an arm of the Gulfstream or something else. They can get some good storms, but not a lot of snow. The interior and mountains are where you get the snow. It is really a very beautiful country. I never could take the cold though. I am probably the only Norwegian who has never has skis on.
Quoting 197. ncstorm:

only the GFS..but just showing the eastern trend its been doing all day..

00z GFS Snow Depth Map 92 hour



18z GFS Snow Depth map..hour 72



Should be a great event in Western North Carolina :) I plan on driving to Roan Mountain to see this one.
Quoting 215. BahaHurican:

We had a super clear weekend, with just enough clouds to make it picturesque.... :o) We got a lot of rain between Tuesday and Friday, though, between the front, the low, and the resulting trough.... plus this week temps have stayed in the 70s overnight, which is a real relief after the relentless heat of September and early October.



It would be nice to cool off a little down here. It has been one of the hottest years I can remember.
219. beell
Current 18Z GFS 180 hr Forecast Precip Type


Current 18Z NAM 72 hr Forecast Precip Type

(click graphics for larger images)

coolwx.com/ptype/movies
Quoting 218. Grothar:




It would be nice to cool off a little down here. It has been one of the hottest years I can remember.
I think the different precipitating events one right after the other had a cooling effect. Of course it's started to warm again, but really, compared to some of the more recent Octobers here it's been pretty decent this week. We've had a few Octobers where 90's were not unheard of.... sweet to have a bit of the regular.

I'm gone... gotta be out early in the a.m., so I'm trying to be good and get into bed before 11 p.m. .... lol...
Outer bands of 95L beginning to slam the north coast of PR... :)


TOTALLY UNRELATED:

Mar 9, 2014 - Daylight Saving Time Started

When local standard time was about to reach
Sunday, March 9, 2014, 2:00:00 AM clocks were turned forward 1 hour to
Sunday, March 9, 2014, 3:00:00 AM local daylight time instead

Sunrise and sunset was about 1 hour later on Mar 9, 2014 than the day before. There was more light in the evening.

Also called Spring Forward, summer time, and Daylight Savings Time.

More info:
Sunday, March 9, 2014: DST starts in USA and Canada
Nov 2

Back 1 hour
Nov 2, 2014 - Daylight Saving Time Ends

When local daylight time is about to reach
Sunday, November 2, 2014, 2:00:00 AM clocks are turned backward 1 hour to
Sunday, November 2, 2014, 1:00:00 AM local standard time instead

Sunrise and sunset will be about 1 hour earlier on Nov 2, 2014 than the day before. There will be more light in the morning.

Also called Fall Back and winter time.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Outer bands of 95L beginning to slam the north coast of PR... :)


I know, when ever one of those little bands pass by, I loose My cable, and I'm ' watching the game....
from Brad Panovich..

Records could be broken..





Quoting nygiants:

Scott posted something with the European Model and GEM showing something tropical heading to florida at around 192 hrs....... from Caribbean.....whats up with that?


Sorry I didn't see this earlier

Anyway

Yeah maybe we should wait till it moves down the time line some more before we start ... you know
Quoting 221. Abacosurf:

Outer bands of 95L beginning to slam the north coast of PR... :)



Onshore, and actually picking up tonight on the N/E. I like the offshore start at low tide, full cloud cover, warm, and glassy.

Quoting 202. HuracanTaino:

If 95L continúes due west,like is doing now, it may stand a chance to reach TD status....
What? If anything that'll be even MORE deleterious to tropical cyclogenesis.

Quoting 225. wunderkidcayman:



Sorry I didn't see this earlier

Anyway

Yeah maybe we should wait till it moves down the time line some more before we start ... you know
If it doesn't fall within the 5-day window on the GFS, ECMWF, or UKMET (forget the other models), it's probably nothing worth worrying about.
Quoting nygiants:

Scott posted something with the European Model and GEM showing something tropical heading to florida at around 192 hrs....... from Caribbean.....whats up with that?

Here's the ECMWF at 192 hours:



You can always go to Tropical Tidbits to find the Euro.

This is the 192 hour GEM (CMC) :



You can get it here at Levi's site. As you can see, neither model is showing anything headed to Florida except some cooler air.

Levi's site (Tropical Tidbits) has a lot of other models on it as well, along with maps, analysis tools and his video updates when something is happening, or about to happen, in the tropics. You can follow his Twitter feed and his Facebook page as well, where he posts more immediate information about the tropics and other severe weather. Levi's a graduate student in tropical meteorology, and there's probably no one except Dr. Masters who posts here regularly who knows more about the tropics than Levi. When you learn to use his site, learn about models and what they can and can't do, and follow him on Twitter and Facebook, you won't need to worry about what any of us posts, and you'll learn more about meteorology at the same time.
Quoting KoritheMan:

If it doesn't fall within the 5-day window on the GFS, ECMWF, or UKMET (forget the other models), it's probably nothing worth worrying about.
Oops! We cross posted. I did a little more detail, but the bottom line is correct. If it's more than 120 hours out on any one of the "Big Three", it's just for entertainment value...and a way to raise your post count. :-)

Quoting 230. sar2401:

Oops! We cross posted. I did a little more detail, but the bottom line is correct. If it's more than 120 hours out on any one of the "Big Three", it's just for entertainment value...and a way to raise your post count. :-)
I'll leave the details to you. Mostly because it never does any good to PROVIDE those details.
Quoting beell:
Current 18Z GFS 180 hr Forecast Precip Type


Current 18Z NAM 72 hr Forecast Precip Type

(click graphics for larger images)

coolwx.com/ptype/movies
Thanks for the Link. Those are some pretty neat animations. As you'll note, my house is right in the center of that little white area in Alabama. Well, I shouldn't say that, since I did get 0.12" today, but that looks pretty much like it for at least the next week. It's supposed to be severe weather season again someday down here. :-)
00z GFS has the 540 dm line all the way down into Savannah, Georgia.
Quoting 224. ncstorm:

from Brad Panovich..

Records could be broken..






Right down the hill from Hickory. That timeline is short, and snow is not uncommon in them parts.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'll leave the details to you. Mostly because it never does any good to PROVIDE those details.
Yes, I know. I'm just bored, so I thought I'd try out some links in a new program I installed for Chrome called Speed Dial. It replaces the 8 little icon things on the Chrome new tab screen with up to 24 even littler icon things that you can customize the way you like. It's at the Chrome store and a pretty nifty program for free.
Hey you Carolina folks might get some snow. ;)

Pressure at my house here in St.thomas down to 29.73 95L just to the northeast of my island
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Sorry I didn't see this earlier

Anyway

Yeah maybe we should wait till it moves down the time line some more before we start ... you know
So, looks like the tropical activity in the Caribbean has died down for now, although I wonder if ex-Hanna is going to end up in the Pacific before it's over. I never thought we'd make it all the way to November 1 with nothing bigger than a tropical wave in the Caribbean. It's not like the water hasn't been warm enough, but the shear and general dry air killed off whatever tried to get started. I expected the Atlantic to be slow, with the Caribbean and GOM picking up the slack but, instead, the exact opposite has happened. Another strange season.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 34m 34 minutes ago

nam slamming outer banks with near hurricane force winds Sat night





Work in the AM..have a good one..
Quoting junie1:
Pressure at my house here in St.thomas down to 29.73 95L just to the northeast of my island
How accurate do you think your barometer might be? I ask because the last update from the NHC put 95L's pressure at 1009 mb, or about 29.80 inches. I'm wondering if the pressure is actually dropping that rapidly or if your barometer just might need calibration.
Quoting 238. sar2401:

So, looks like the tropical activity in the Caribbean has died down for now, although I wonder if ex-Hanna is going to end up in the Pacific before it's over. I never thought we'd make it all the way to November 1 with nothing bigger than a tropical wave in the Caribbean. It's not like the water hasn't been warm enough, but the shear and general dry air killed off whatever tried to get started. I expected the Atlantic to be slow, with the Caribbean and GOM picking up the slack but, instead, the exact opposite has happened. Another strange season.
I was almost certain most of the tropical cyclone activity would be in the Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean, and Bahamas region as is typical of El Nino years.

Instead we get something I've never seen; nearly 90% of the storms carving a smooth parabolic recurvature track across the western periphery of the subtropical ridge between 60 and 75W.

Like I've literally never seen that in years with this much cyclone activity, and I've studied historical storm tracks pretty frequently.
Quoting sar2401:
So, looks like the tropical activity in the Caribbean has died down for now, although I wonder if ex-Hanna is going to end up in the Pacific before it's over. I never thought we'd make it all the way to November 1 with nothing bigger than a tropical wave in the Caribbean. It's not like the water hasn't been warm enough, but the shear and general dry air killed off whatever tried to get started. I expected the Atlantic to be slow, with the Caribbean and GOM picking up the slack but, instead, the exact opposite has happened. Another strange season.


Plus, October is the wettest month in the western Caribbean. So far, it has been below normal, at least here in Jamaica. This may have negative implications for the impending dry season. But we still have a month to clear or reduce the current rainfall deficit.
Quoting 240. sar2401:

How accurate do you think your barometer might be? I ask because the last update from the NHC put 95L's pressure at 1009 mb, or about 29.80 inches. I'm wondering if the pressure is actually dropping that rapidly or if your barometer just might need calibration.
not sure its a weather wise weather station i got from ebay might not be highly accurate but am far from the airport here on st.thomas where the official weather readings take place
Quoting 239. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi � 34m 34 minutes ago

nam slamming outer banks with near hurricane force winds Sat night





Work in the AM..have a good one..
The counter-clockwise circulation around the low pressure would help drive down the colder airmass. Also, as the low (nor'easter) lifts off to the northeast an arctic high will build in behind it. The combination of the two pressure systems in close proximity to one another should force a strong pressure gradient sending up the wind speeds. NAM has a low of around 39 for Ocala, FL. Which would mean 40s for much of Central FL. and 50s right along the coast.

Quoting sar2401:
How accurate do you think your barometer might be? I ask because the last update from the NHC put 95L's pressure at 1009 mb, or about 29.80 inches. I'm wondering if the pressure is actually dropping that rapidly or if your barometer just might need calibration.


Maybe diurnal pressure changes, or lowering of heights due to the upper trough?
Quoting 244. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The counter-clockwise circulation around the low pressure would help drive down the colder airmass. Also, as the low (nor'easter) lifts off to the northeast an arctic high will build in behind it. The combination of the two pressure systems in close proximity to one another should force a strong pressure gradient sending up the wind speeds. NAM has a low of around 39 for Ocala, FL. Which would mean 40s for much of Central FL. and 50s right along the coast.



What about like West Palm Beach?
Quoting 246. 12george1:


What about like West Palm Beach?
I would say in the 50s right along the beaches, water temperatures should help keep things a few degrees warmer. inland will be a different story, depending on how much clearing we get and if winds go calm, we would get the full radiational cooling.
Quoting nigel20:


Maybe diurnal pressure changes, or lowering of heights due to the upper trough?
Yeah, could be that, as well as being on land, but St. Thomas is close enough that it would be interesting to find out how accurate the home barometer really is.
Quoting junie1:
not sure its a weather wise weather station i got from ebay might not be highly accurate but am far from the airport here on st.thomas where the official weather readings take place
That's strange. I was checking the pressures at the WU St. Thomas page and it picked up the Spanish language forecasts instead of the correct English version. Anyway, pressure at the airport is 29.82, which is about what I'd expect given the distance from there to 95L The lowest pressure from any of the personal weather stations around there is 29.77 at Tortola. As Nigel said, there could be several reasons for the pressure differential but I suspect the barometer in your weather station needs to be calibrated, especially if you are more than about 50 feet above sea level. The most important thing is the trend, not the absolute reading. Knowing the previous readings and trend gives you more information than any single reading.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I was almost certain most of the tropical cyclone activity would be in the Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean, and Bahamas region as is typical of El Nino years.

Instead we get something I've never seen; nearly 90% of the storms carving a smooth parabolic recurvature track across the western periphery of the subtropical ridge between 60 and 75W.

Like I've literally never seen that in years with this much cyclone activity, and I've studied historical storm tracks pretty frequently.
I was also. I haven't just studied the past seasons, I've lived through them going back to about 1958, when I really transitioned into a weather nerd. I've never seen a season that has had as much hurricane activity as we've had this season and have it exclusively in the Atlantic. Even is slow seasons, there's usually at least one hurricane in one of those three areas you mentioned. None of the hurricanes this season have "looked" right or behaved right either. It's certainly been a good thing for most of North and Central America in terms of death and destruction, but it seems like basing yourself out of St. Johns Newfoundland would have been a good thing as a chaser. I've never seen that happen two seasons in a row either. I've looked at a lot of hurricane maps over the years as well as historic hurricanes, and something just isn't right. I have no scientific data to back that up, just the feeling I get from looking at the hurricane maps now and going "WTF"...
Quoting 249. sar2401:

That's strange. I was checking the pressures at the WU St. Thomas page and it picked up the Spanish language forecasts instead of the correct English version. Anyway, pressure at the airport is 29.82, which is about what I'd expect given the distance from there to 95L The lowest pressure from any of the personal weather stations around there is 29.77 at Tortola. As Nigel said, there could be several reasons for the pressure differential but I suspect the barometer in your weather station needs to be calibrated, especially if you are more than about 50 feet above sea level. The most important thing is the trend, not the absolute reading. Knowing the previous readings and trend gives you more information than any single reading.

yea im sure its off but ill reset it to whats at the airport to see if theres any changes after
Quoting 193. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Those 2 teams are used to it. Especially, if it ends up being a snowstorm. Should make for an interesting game though. I wonder if the Bills are at home, might see some lake effect snow this weekend as well.
Bill's have a bye !!!
Well, looks like a shot of winter is on the way to start November, highs struggling to hit 60 with lows in the 30's this weekend here looks like a good bet. Its going to be brisk, but refreshing, especially compared to the mid-upper 80's we've had lately. If correct, it will be the coldest since sometime in March around here.

I'm not surprised considering the strength of the mid level system models are showing. Anytime you see a merger with two upper energy pieces just off the coast over the gulf stream, that's baroclinic fuel. Deep cyclonic flow will wrap very strong cold air advection across the deep south and FL. Prepare for surprisingly chilly temps. I don't think models are overdoing the cooling at all. Well, providing the strength and placement of the low is correct.
255. vis0
CREDIT::NOAA. (others:: Univ. of Washington, Canada, ERAU.

Since i see people remembering Sandy 2012 a ~re-post. (using a recently mentioned VID)
Quoting 221. Abacosurf:

Outer bands of 95L beginning to slam the north coast of PR... :)



Slam?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
414 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5
INCHES. ALSO THE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO PRECEDE THIS FRONT WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME CONCENTRATED BACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER LAND. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS/SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM REMAINING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS SOME COOLER DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.


.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A VERY DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY ITSELF IS GOING TO FEEL QUITE CHILLY. TEMPERATURES MAY
CONTINUE TO FALL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
CLIMB SLOWLY INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ALL DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...BUT THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WILL RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH WILL AFFECT
MAINLY COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE 15
TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 40S. THERE
IS NO RISK OF FROST SINCE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT AND DEW POINTS
WILL BE QUITE LOW. WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER
2ND. THE RECORD AT TAMPA IS 40 DEGREES SET IN 1993. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST LOW FOR TAMPA IS AROUND 47.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN BY MONDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION
AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
WITH TIME THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A
QUICK WARM UP BY MID-WEEK. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY AROUND 70...BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER THAT
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER COULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS...SO WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&
I saw another map last night that suggested Charlotte. Now I see this map has me in the snow Saturday. Hard to believe. We were pushing upper 80's last couple of days and I was surfing in trunks on the coast. I was thinking of driving up to Greenville area just to see some snow. Looks like I may not have to.

Quoting 224. ncstorm:

from Brad Panovich..

Records could be broken..






Old Indian trading route through those parts (modern I-85 area). Some lost colonists from Roanoke may have ended up around those parts. Lots of copper around them parts.

Also they resurveyed the arbitrary border between NC and SC recently (the straight line). Last time it was done was late 1700's or early 1800's. Found that some people who were living in NC were actually living in SC and vice versa. The original surveyors used trees and rocks. Kind of tough to locate after 200+ years.





Quoting 234. Pallis1:

Right down the hill from Hickory. That timeline is short, and snow is not uncommon in them parts.
260. MahFL
Quoting 202. HuracanTaino:

If 95L continúes due west,like is doing now, it may stand a chance to reach TD status....


No chance, 40 kts of shear and another front going to hit it. Please be realistic.
261. MahFL
Quoting 241. KoritheMan:

I was almost certain most of the tropical cyclone activity would be in the Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean, and Bahamas region as is typical of El Nino years.


We don't have an El Nino, duh......
there you go jumping everyone this morning again mah fl. bad mood? looks like 95 is splitting up im watching the southern half as it marches west.
NWS forecast 46 degrees for Sunday morning here in Fort Myers.

Our record low is 49 so it looks pretty good for breaking the record.
Finnally 93E turns into a TC.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

Deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of
Acapulco, Mexico, has become more concentrated overnight, and recent
microwave and conventional satellite imagery suggest that the
low-level center has become better defined. Therefore, the system
is being designated as a tropical depression. The satellite data
indicate that the center is located near the southern edge of the
main convective mass. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB are 2.5 and 1.5, respectively. A blend of these estimates
support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.

The depression is over warm water and expected to remain in a low
shear environment during the next several days. The main limiting
factor will be some drier air in the low to mid-levels. As a
result, gradual strengthening is predicted during much of the
forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little above the intensity
guidance through the first couple of days. After 72 hours, the
NHC forecast is in good agreement with the HWRF which brings the
cyclone to hurricane strength in about 4 days. Increasing
south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening
after that time.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. The
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward later today as a
mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone.
The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days,
which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, then
northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical
cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough
approaches the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in
good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle
of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 11.0N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
265. MahFL
Quoting 262. islander101010:

there you go jumping everyone this morning again mah fl. bad mood? looks like 95 is splitting up im watching the southern half as it marches west.


No, I am just commenting on statements that are not 100 % sensible. There is no way 95L will become a TD and we don't have an El Nino.
Quoting 229. sar2401:


Here's the ECMWF at 192 hours:



You can always go to Tropical Tidbits to find the Euro.

This is the 192 hour GEM (CMC) :

img src="http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/model s/gem/2014102912/gem_T850_eus_33.png"

style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">

You can get it here at Levi's site. As you can see, neither model is showing anything headed to Florida except some cooler air.

Levi's site (Tropical Tidbits) has a lot of other models on it as well, along with maps, analysis tools and his video updates when something is happening, or about to happen, in the tropics. You can follow his Twitter feed and his Facebook page as well, where he posts more immediate information about the tropics and other severe weather. Levi's a graduate student in tropical meteorology, and there's probably no one except Dr. Masters who posts here regularly who knows more about the tropics than Levi. When you learn to use his site, learn about models and what they can and can't do, and follow him on Twitter and Facebook, you won't need to worry about what any of us posts, and you'll learn more about meteorology at the same time.

I don't know...ask Scott he posted the model runs showing something in South Caribbean so idk.
scotts wave he posted i believe is the wave behind 95. too far in the future to worry about. the cold front will be the headlining story
Quoting 256. Gearsts:

Slam?

Twas a little late night sarcasm.... Thought the smiley gave that away....
Quoting 261. MahFL:



We don't have an El Nino, duh......
Technically we don't. but for all intents and purposes the atmosphere has behaved like one. And with a weakly to moderately positive equatorial oceanic signal for the greater part of the summer, the current cool anomalies notwithstanding, it seems more sensible to just say we do.

And yeah, I quite caught your sarcasm. I may not be a very subtle person myself, but... :)
Should be Vance by 12 UTC:



Tightly-coiled convective banding is evident.
Yes, I think we will be looking back at that possible scenario late this weekend.

Quoting 268. islander101010:

scotts wave he posted i believe is the wave behind 95. too far in the future to worry about. the cold front will be the headlining story
Quoting 273. KoritheMan:

Technically we don't. but for all intents and purposes the atmosphere has behaved like one. And with a weakly to moderately positive equatorial oceanic signal for the greater part of the summer, the current cool anomalies notwithstanding, it seems more sensible to just say we do.

And yeah, I quite caught your sarcasm. I may not be a very subtle person myself, but... :)



I believe that in coming El Nino years, October tends to be very quiet in the tropics. This October has obviously been the opposite, arguably the busiest month of the season. How is the atmosphere behaving in an El Nino fashion exactly?
What started to look like just a remarkable event this weekend, potentially could be quite an exceptional one. I'm watching the track and intensity of that Nor'easter now. What I originally thought was going to be a run-of-the-mill Nor'easter, is now showing potential to be quite potent, which means slinging more cold air further south (amongst other things). They haven't even finished harvesting the cotton around here and we're talking a possible dusting of snow.

Lots of leaves still on the trees in many places. High winds and frozen precip could create a lot of havoc mid-Atlantic and northward.

Quoting 263. Sfloridacat5:

NWS forecast 46 degrees for Sunday morning here in Fort Myers.

Our record low is 49 so it looks pretty good for breaking the record.

dry air in the heart of the season might be more common hinderance and as the result future oct-nov.s could become more active
280. MahFL
Quoting 273. KoritheMan:

And yeah, I quite caught your sarcasm...


I was not being sarcastic, just stating the truth, as you acknowledged.
Funny Nea came on here yesterday talking smack about crow being served when again I was right as it appears snow is going to occur across South Carolina & North Carolina and may even get close to the coast. Once again another blogger gets the crow thrown right back at him.

282. MahFL
Scott,

Got yer fur coat ready, it's going to be cold !
Models are showing hurricane force winds all across eastern NC and if you are in this area then you better take heed as the Outerbanks are about to get smacked on Saturday.
284. MahFL
Quoting 283. StormTrackerScott:

Models are showing hurricane force winds all across eastern NC and if you are in this area then you better take heed as the Outerbanks are about to get smacked on Saturday.


20 mph winds are forecast for the big Florida Georgia game on Sat, and cool temps too.
Quoting 284. MahFL:



20 mph winds are forecast for the big Florida Georgia game on Sat, and cool temps too.


As a Gator alum, I'm happy to hear this. Anything to level the playing field is helpful. Maybe the winds will be strong enough to blow Muschamp into Nova Scotia.
Quoting 282. MahFL:

Scott,

Got yer fur coat ready, it's going to be cold !


Every 6rs the models update it has trended colder heck we may even hit 39 here in Longwood.
I wonder how Steve Gregory is going to explain this when he posted a blog about warmer than average for this weekend. I mean it looks like many locations in FL are going to smash records in some cases by a landslide.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H5 LOPRES
CENTERED OVER MID-ATLANTIC WILL FORCE A SECOND COLD FRONT INTO
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOPRES OFF MID-ATLANTIC AND
POWERFUL RIDGE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VLY WILL
MAKE NEARLY IDEAL CAA SCENARIO FOR THE PENINSULA...AS CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS PLUNGES SWD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S SATURDAY...BUT MAY BEGIN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SURGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY THE COLDEST SOUTH
FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED SINCE AT LEAST MARCH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND COLDER FOR A NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE RUNS...AND NOW
PROJECTED MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING /UPPER 40S WEST PALM BEACH AND
NAPLES METROS AND LOW 50S FT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI METROS/ MAY
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Funny Nea came on here yesterday talking smack about crow being served when again I was right as it appears snow is going to occur across South Carolina & North Carolina and may even get close to the coast. Once again another blogger gets the crow thrown right back at him.

Scott im planning a trip to the mountains sat sun the location is 15 min from boone im getting nervous going in my crv now . we are going to be staying east of boone but no 4wd any thoughts anyone
Quoting 286. StormTrackerScott:



Every 6rs the models update it has trended colder heck we may even hit 39 here in Longwood.
yes models are surely lowering temps almost with each run,records may be broken this weekend.
Quoting 289. absurfer:

Scott im planning a trip to the mountains sat sun the location is 15 min from boone im getting nervous going in my crv now . we are going to be staying east of boone but no 4wd any thoughts anyone


Here is a snowfall map below. Snowfall totals aren't too bad I say go out and enjoy it as this is a very rare weather event that is going to occur this weekend. I think you guys will be just fine so go have fun this weekend in some fresh snow.



Being right 20% of the time, bragging about it and calling out others. LOL.
at the end of the gfs run about 160 hrs tw just se of s florida
I thought snow was not to be discussed on here?.
For Sunday night to Monday morning...


Quoting 224. ncstorm:

from Brad Panovich..

Records could be broken..








Due to a dearth of widespread observations in the mid-upper levels of the troposphere vs what we're accustomed to closer to the surface, it's almost always a difficult forecast w/ ULLs, especially with one that is pegged to be this intense (sub-540 decameters). The areas anywhere from central-eastern South Carolina and into North Carolina outside the mountains that see snow (if all) with this system will most likely need to (besides having the proper diurnal timing (12-15z preferably), juxtaposition to the upper level low, etc.) experience higher precipitation rates in order to provide enough cooling due to melting into the above freezing boundary layer of air near and just above the surface to allow snow to actually reach the ground, thus whatever snow does fall on Saturday Morning will be more than likely moderate-heavy. This is an exceedingly difficult forecast, and will be heavily dependent on last-minute forecasting maneuvers based mainly on radar, and the discrepancy between no snow & snow will be quite evident, with isolated areas seeing heavy precip and thus relatively moderate-heavy snow, even with the warm ground temperatures in place, would have the potential to see a brief "pixie dusting" of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces...
GFS sounding out of Raleigh in this event exhibits my concern, showing an undoubtedly appreciable above freezing layer up from the surface through at least 800-850 millibars or so (~lowest 5000 feet), however this can be eroded with heavier precipitation and dynamic cooling underneath this bowling ball upper level low that will dive southward out of Manitoba... (i.e. a "Manitoba Mauler"...)


A little close-up of the 6z GFS snowfall accumulations, voices my current thinking that virtually anyone in central-eastern North or South Carolina at this juncture is fair game for snow...
If you look close the GFS has a low of 18 in extreme SW Virginia.

Quoting 295. islander101010:

at the end of the gfs run about 160 hrs tw just se of s florida


Euro pulls a tropical wave across FL in the 180hr range. Weird as we go from Summer to Winter then back to Summer all in a week's time. Crazy weather going on now.
Scott its only supposed to snow in the mountains..IOW no big deal..
Quoting luvtogolf:
Being right 20% of the time, bragging about it and calling out others. LOL.


I've gone to the NWS in Columbia, Charlotte and Raleigh and i cant seem to find one forecast for snow at any of the locations from the blogger claiming victory 3 days out. Also, the NWS forecast for Orlando is a low of 44 degrees Saturday. That is definitely cold for this time of year but hardly a record for November 1st. 1993 would hold the record for 37 degrees in Orlando. Time to get the coats out...for a day lol.
WXguy..you might want to read the entire dicussion for NWS, Charlotte..

excerpt:

HOWEVER...ONE
THING SEEMS ALMOST A SLAM DUNK...AND THAT IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS A VERY GOOD NW FLOW SNOW SET UP SHUD OCCUR.

later all..
Those in need of more rain in FL hold tight as the Euro is beginning to resemble that of El-Nino and it does appear that things will turn wet later next week as a tropical wave come up from the SE and merges with a trough across the central Gulf


304. beell
Kinda looks like a poorly timed match of wrap-around moisture and near freezing surface temps suitable for accumulation across the mid-Atlantic states. Snow limited to the higher elevations late Friday into Saturday morning. Strong NW flow following the trough should scour out the moisture pretty quick.



Critical Thickness & 500-850 mb relative humidity

Critical thickness value and p-type forecasting

Thickness is the vertical distance between two isobaric surfaces, which is often proportional to the temperature of that layer. As such, empirical studies have shown that certain values of differing thickness have shown some skill in differentiating between rain or snow.

1000-500 mb (5400 m)
1000-700 mb (2840 m)
1000-850 mb (1300 m)
850-700 mb (1540 m)

Link
Webberweather..great write up..



No one said snow couldn't be discuss on here..(just like no one was predicting a Cat 5 to hit Florida).especially when snow was being discuss in June, July and August constantly..being that its October and models predicting actual snowfall then why not discuss it..good luck to those in the possibility areas..
Quoting ncstorm:
WXguy..you might want to read the entire dicussion for NWS, Charlotte..

excerpt:

HOWEVER...ONE
THING SEEMS ALMOST A SLAM DUNK...AND THAT IS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG
THE TN BORDER...AS A VERY GOOD NW FLOW SNOW SET UP SHUD OCCUR.

later all..


I said Charlotte, Columbia, Raleigh. Not the TN border. Its also discussion and i do not see an official forecast saying accumulating snow. Looks like it'll just be the mountains at this time.
307. beell

WPC 24 hr probabilistic snow > 2" - Friday 18Z through Saturday 18Z
Wilmington cites a once in 50 year set-up for this weekend. So there is the potential for an extraordinary event, but we're all getting ahead of ourselves. I'd post the link, but my computer is all whacky this morning. Sorry :-( Should be fun to watch.

I'm very interested to see what kinds of winds our Nor'easter spins up. Right now the local mets are not predicting anything spectacular for the OBX (35 mph NW winds and light soundside flooding). We'll see if that changes.

Quoting 301. WxGuy2014:



I've gone to the NWS in Columbia, Charlotte and Raleigh and i cant seem to find one forecast for snow at any of the locations from the blogger claiming victory 3 days out. Also, the NWS forecast for Orlando is a low of 44 degrees Saturday. That is definitely cold for this time of year but hardly a record for November 1st. 1993 would hold the record for 37 degrees in Orlando. Time to get the coats out...for a day lol.
Quoting 304. beell:

Kinda looks like a poorly timed match of wrap-around moisture and near freezing surface temps suitable for accumulation across the mid-Atlantic states. Snow limited to the higher elevations late Friday into Saturday morning. Strong NW flow following the trough should scour out the moisture pretty quick.



Critical Thickness & 500-850 mb relative humidity

Critical thickness value and p-type forecasting

Thickness is the vertical distance between two isobaric surfaces, which is often proportional to the temperature of that layer. As such, empirical studies have shown that certain values of differing thickness have shown some skill in differentiating between rain or snow.

1000-500 mb (5400 m)
1000-700 mb (2840 m)
1000-850 mb (1300 m)
850-700 mb (1540 m)

Link



I agree its going to be critical as to when this upper low dives SE because if it comes late in the day on Saturday then snow could be realized in many locations and this was laid out this morning on JB's video as he says snow should occur across the Coastal Plain of South & North Carolina.

Quoting 277. tampabaymatt:



I believe that in coming El Nino years, October tends to be very quiet in the tropics. This October has obviously been the opposite, arguably the busiest month of the season. How is the atmosphere behaving in an El Nino fashion exactly?
The subtropics have seen the greatest concentration of tropical cyclone activity, especially in terms of hurricanes and intense hurricanes. In fact, there hasn't been a single hurricane occurring south of 20N in 2014 due to persistent westerly shear along the mid-oceanic trough, a common characteristic of El Nino.

Consider also the ACE index, which is an arguably better method for calculating cyclonic activity than the raw numbers.
You said you went to the NWS, Charlotte and couldnt find anything..

its there..

Quoting 312. ncstorm:

You said you went to the NWS, Charlotte and couldnt find anything..

its there..




You should watch JB's video from this morning as that may put some of these trolls to rest on here. He clearly lays out on what may actually cause snow to occur close to the Carolina coast this weekend as this strong upper low moves toward Myrtle Beach.

Better yet the stratospheric Warming that is occurring may be even more interesting going forward.
You can thank this threat for snow in the southern Appalachians and possibly even into east-central North & South Carolina to weak jet wavelengths (a west coast trough in the heart of winter wouldn't fly,), retreat of the persistent Chukotka Low that's been meandering around far northeastern Siberia the last few weeks, and the remnants of Hurricane Ana phasing with a piece of energy that split off of this retreating low pressure gyre and dove into the northeast Pacific...
Regardless, very impressive snowpack over Eurasia this October, and according to Rutgers Snow Lab, our week 43 snow extent was the 2nd largest Eurasian snowpack on record since the 1960s, only 2nd to 1976.


The winter of 1976-77 observed the AO absolutely tank to a mind-blowing value of minus seven in mid January (not to mention snow being reported all the way down into South Florida)... (source: Daily AO index data via CPC Link
1977 1 10 -4.696
1977 1 11 -5.333
1977 1 12 -5.802
1977 1 13 -6.520
1977 1 14 -7.311
1977 1 15 -7.433
1977 1 16 -7.331

1977 1 17 -6.168
1977 1 18 -4.205
and this is reflected in the Asia SLP pressure pattern, w/ anomalously low heights over southern Russia, Manchuria, China and Kazakhstan underneath higher pressures over Scandinavia and extreme northern Russia....


Comparing this to the top SLP Analogs in Eurasia for October...


And looking @ their 500mb pattern, no surprises here, lots of high-latitude blocking w/ a classic west based negative NAO...


Of course this is just one of the multitude of factors I'm looking into for this winter, but it looks confidently cold in the southeastern US given the parameters at hand...
I honestly couldn't fit enough pictures into this collage, there's a lot more where this came from, but I'll refrain for now...



For a short, sweet, and to the point answer why Eurasian snow cover extent and advance is important in October, refer to this graphic...
Scott, JB also said the Low wouldn't move through the Carolinas yesterday..he backtracking too..but I'll watch it..he still knows more than I ever will..
Quoting ncstorm:
You said you went to the NWS, Charlotte and couldnt find anything..

its there..



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001> 003-310930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
530 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM
EARLY SATURDAY ONWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

For Charlotte Link

Today Sunny, with a high near 67. North wind around 7 mph.
Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Light north northeast wind.
Friday Increasing clouds, with a high near 64. Light and variable wind.
Friday Night A chance of showers, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Light and variable wind becoming north northwest 8 to 13 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Saturday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. North northwest wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night A slight chance of showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
NWS, Wilmington, NC

excerpt..

SATURDAY MORNING FINDS AN
APPROXIMATE 5 SIGMA 500MB TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH THE AMAZING 536
DAM CUTOFF RIGHT OVER ILM BY 18Z...THE FINE FOLKS AT WPC DESCRIBING
AS A NEARLY 50 YEAR EVENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT
WITH SOUTHERN ZONES OPERATING OFF OF PURE DYNAMICS WHILE NORTHERN
ZONES WILL BENEFIT FROM FURTHER FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...FROM THE NORTHEAST! THIS SYSTEM IS SO STRONG AND COLD
ALOFT THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL WAS DISCUSSED WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO. ITS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THOUGH SO THE CHILLY AND RAW AFTERNOON
WILL BE MORE NOTEWORTHY THAN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND THE DEPARTING/DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST A STRONG GRADIENT OF
WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD REALLY GET THE WINDS QUITE
GUSTY. THE COLD ADVECTION EASES SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S. THE
WIND STAYS UP WITH THE GRADIENT PRECLUDING RAD COOLING BUT FOR THE
SAME REASON SUCH CHILL SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY RIGHT UP TO THE BEACHES.
This is a big cold blast on the way for the East and South, but it will be a short lived one. November looks really warm, might end up as one of the warmest on record for the US if this coming pattern persists. Time will tell if we cool back down for the winter or if the warm pattern establishes itself as the dominant one. I'm glad we get to talk about snow for a little while though :)

Quoting luvtogolf:
Being right 20% of the time, bragging about it and calling out others. LOL.


I know right, he called me someone else i've never heard of before. So i used the red exclamation point for the first time today because he is quite rude.
Quoting 314. Webberweather53:

You can thank this threat for snow in the southern Appalachians and possibly even into east-central North & South Carolina to weak jet wavelengths (a west coast trough in the heart of winter wouldn't fly,), retreat of the persistent Chukotka Low that's been meandering around far northeastern Siberia the last few weeks, and the remnants of Hurricane Ana phasing with a piece of energy that split off of this retreating low pressure gyre and dove into the northeast Pacific...
Regardless, very impressive snowpack over Eurasia this October, and according to Rutgers Snow Lab, our week 43 snow extent was the 2nd largest Eurasian snowpack on record since the 1960s, only 2nd to 1976. The winter of 1976-77 observed the AO absolutely tank to a mind-blowing value of minus seven in mid January (not to mention snow being reported all the way down into South Florida)... (source: Daily AO index data via CPC Link
1977 1 10 -4.696
1977 1 11 -5.333
1977 1 12 -5.802
1977 1 13 -6.520
1977 1 14 -7.311
1977 1 15 -7.433
1977 1 16 -7.331

1977 1 17 -6.168
1977 1 18 -4.205
and this is reflected in the Asia SLP pressure pattern, w/ anomalously low heights over southern Russia, Manchuria, China and Kazakhstan underneath higher pressures over Scandinavia and extreme northern Russia....


Comparing this to the top SLP Analogs in Eurasia for October...


And looking @ their 500mb pattern, no surprises here, lots of high-latitude blocking w/ a classic west based negative NAO...


Of course this is just one of the multitude of factors I'm looking into for this winter, but it looks confidently cold in the southeastern US given the parameters at hand...
I honestly couldn't fit enough pictures into this collage, there's a lot more where this came from, but I'll refrain for now...



For a short, sweet, and to the point answer why Eurasian snow cover extent and advance is important in October, refer to this graphic...



Snow pack across the far north is one of the greatest ever for so early in the season. Going to be hard for some of the GW activist to explain that. All this snow pack suggest a very cold Winter for the Central & Eastern US combine that with El-Nino with it's active southern jet. We should see a very active pattern across the south and Mid Atlantic this Winter and upcoming Spring.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is a big cold blast on the way for the East and South, but it will be a short lived one. November looks really warm, might end up as one of the warmest on record for the US if this coming pattern persists. Time will tell if we cool back down for the winter or if the warm pattern establishes itself as the dominant one. I'm glad we get to talk about snow for a little while though :)



This weather is wild. But here in Tallahassee i'll take a day or two of cool temps. It reminds me that there is a winter lol. Daylight savings this weekend means it gets dark so much earlier too, i hate that!
322. MAstu
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:



Snow pack across the far north is one of the greatest ever for so early in the season. Going to be hard for some of the GW activist to explain that. All this snow pack suggest a very cold Winter for the Central & Eastern US combine that with El-Nino with it's active southern jet. We should see a very active pattern across the south and Mid Atlantic this Winter and upcoming Spring.
But Boston is in the clear right? The cold and snow is gonna go all the way to the SE and skip the NE? I just moved from NC so I'm a bit nervous...
Quoting 322. MAstu:

But Boston is in the clear right? The cold and snow is gonna go all the way to the SE and skip the NE? I just moved from NC so I'm a bit nervous...


Snow appears to aimed toward the SE Coast of the US.
Quoting 323. StormTrackerScott:



Snow appears to aimed toward the SE Coast of the US.


I heard the Triad was supposed to get a mix of rain and snow early Saturday.
Quoting 322. MAstu:

But Boston is in the clear right? The cold and snow is gonna go all the way to the SE and skip the NE? I just moved from NC so I'm a bit nervous...


Snow potential is for higher elevations in the Appalachian mountains and eastern Maine. Cold temps, strong winds and maybe a flake or two for the rest.
Using the ignore button for the first time. I does no good when others quote the trolls. It needs an upgrade.
Quoting 326. luvtogolf:

Using the ignore button for the first time. I does no good when others quote the trolls. It needs an upgrade.


better yet it needs to be removed
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:



Snow pack across the far north is one of the greatest ever for so early in the season. Going to be hard for some of the GW activist to explain that. All this snow pack suggest a very cold Winter for the Central & Eastern US combine that with El-Nino with it's active southern jet. We should see a very active pattern across the south and Mid Atlantic this Winter and upcoming Spring.


There are viable hints I could see a few months prior that we're pointing to -AO this winter, even before the SAI got started, most notably the SSTs & their distribution within the Kurioshio-Oyashio Extension & North pacific Current east of Japan... Cooler SSTs correlate and feedback to low pressure in the mid-latitudes because the lower the heights near the surface induce the air to expand aloft, (conceptually (most certainly not physical), not dissimilar to a thermal low), thus allowing troughs & the jet stream to dig into the region of cooler SSTs, and if these cooler SSTs happen to reside near a "critical" latitude (~40N or so) in advance of winter, I have noticed that in La Ninas or El Ninos (not neutral, yrs, possibly due to highly variable jet & increased modulation & activity via the MJO, as is more typical for neutral ENSO states) it lends huge clues to the AO state in the following winter. Additionally, the cooler SSTs are usually coupled w/ warmer SSTs to their south, and this leads to large gradients in temperature across relatively small meridional scales (baroclinicity) that favors mid-latitude cyclone intensification, which in the Pacific can be followed by jet extension (+AAM), and increased upwelling into the stratosphere (especially over the Himalayan-Tibet Complex) from stronger than normal large-scale planetary waves.. (this disrupts the polar vortex and can lead to -AO spikes)...

ASO tri-monthly SST difference preceding the top 10 -AO vs +AO years (Hurrell DJFM AO) with neutral ENSO years excluded...


SON tri-monthly SST difference with the top 10 +/- AO winters, El Ninos only


Notice how cool it is this yr in this latitudinal belt within the N pac current & KOE and off Newfoundland, the opposite of SST distributions preceding +AO yrs...


I also note a weak correlation between the return period following multi yr warm ENSO events and an El Nino winter's AO... longer return periods=-AO, and considering the last multi yr warm event ended in 2004, this would argue for a strong (<-1.0) AO this winter...



Along with the easterly QBO state, High Siberian Snowfall Advance Index/Extent, general ENSO state (more -AO winters in El Ninos vs +AO yrs), multidecadal -AO phase that began in and around the mid 2000s...


near-stronger than normal heat 100mb heat eddy flux beginning to show up (indicative of stronger than normal upwelling into the stratosphere)..



The pattern is heavily in favor for a predominantly -AO regime this winter, although with poleward propagation of +AAM anomalies is signaling for an upcoming +AO state... (+AAM anoms in yellow/orange= anomalous westerly winds, places these westerlies in the above 40-45N, then you strengthen the jet stream globally, and invigorate the wintertime polar vortex, thus you essentially create a +AO that locks a majority of cold air necessary for wintry precipitation into the high latitudes)



This is being verified by the significant rises we've observed in the AO since the dramatic crash in October, which produced some of the lowest October daily AO values on record, only beaten by 2002 (not surprisingly that was another year with well above normal snowfall advance & extent in Eurasia, in fact, that October we observed the 2nd largest Eurasian snowpack on record...)
I forsee a nice cold nasty rainy day here in Raleigh on Saturday. Does look like the mountains may get some nice snow, but I will believe that we get snow anywhere close to Raleigh when I see it.
330. JRRP
Oh oh
looks like we'll have vance today in the pacific
Quoting 326. luvtogolf:

Using the ignore button for the first time. I does no good when others quote the trolls. It needs an upgrade.


Yeah, you're completely right. The ignore feature is essentially useless for that reason.
Many folks are in for a stormy winter.


328. Webberweather53
1:31 PM GMT on October 30, 2014



There are viable hints I could see a few months prior that we're pointing to -AO this winter,
They even have a nickname for the type of weather system that is coming this weekend...

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 30 2014 - 12Z Sat Nov 1 2014

***Major trough setting up over the Eastern U.S.***

***Drought relief on the way for California***

***Arctic surface high settles southward into U.S.***

The cold front that has moved offshore from the East Coast has delivered a
cooler and more fall-like airmass to the Eastern U.S., and this cooler
weather is expected to continue through Halloween. Things will get more
interesting as we head into the weekend as a Manitoba mauler (an upper
level low coming from the Canadian province of Manitoba) dives southward
towards the southern Appalachians by Saturday morning.
This will result
in the development of a highly amplified trough over the East Coast and a
strong surface low developing offshore. In terms of sensible weather
impacts, expect much colder weather by Saturday with numerous showers, and
snow in the higher elevations of the Appalachians.

Across the western U.S., good news is in the forecast for much of
California as a more southern storm track brings badly needed rain to
drought-stricken areas. The rain will come courtesy of a Pacific cold
front. A period of steady rainfall along with isolated thunderstorms is
likely for central and northern California on Friday. Snow is likely for
the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada, where winter storm watches
are currently in effect. Showers are also expected over the Pacific
Northwest.

Elsewhere across the country, a large surface high from Canada will settle
southward into the central U.S. to close out the week, with cold and dry
conditions expected. Dry and pleasant weather is expected for the Desert
Southwest.

Hamrick
Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:



Snow pack across the far north is one of the greatest ever for so early in the season. Going to be hard for some of the GW activist to explain that. All this snow pack suggest a very cold Winter for the Central & Eastern US combine that with El-Nino with it's active southern jet. We should see a very active pattern across the south and Mid Atlantic this Winter and upcoming Spring.


The uneducated, the scientifically-illiterate, and the ideologically-blind will certainly look at every flake of snow and every cold spell this winter as 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, But those who actually take the time to learn about climate and weather--that is, those who understand the extremely complex atmospheric dynamics at play, and who grasp how energy is distributed around the globe and shared between the oceans and the poles and the continents--know quite well just how profoundly incorrect and simplistically childish such a conclusion is. As has been stated before, snow doesn't prove that the planet isn't warming any more than nightfall proves that the sun has been devoured by an angry dragon.
336. MahFL
From JAX NWS :
"A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER A TASTE OF WINTER
THIS WEEKEND."

Brrrrr.
Quoting 335. Neapolitan:


The uneducated, the scientifically-illiterate, and the ideologically-blind will certainly look at every flake of snow and every cold spell this winter as 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, But those who actually take the time to learn about climate and weather--that is, those who understand the extremely complex atmospheric dynamics at play, and who grasp how energy is distributed around the globe and shared between the oceans and the poles and the continents--know quite well just how profoundly incorrect and simplistically childish such a conclusion is. As has been stated before, snow doesn't prove that the planet isn't warming any more than nightfall proves that the sun has been devoured by an angry dragon.


I believe this is the whole reason people moved away from the term "Global Warming" and went with "Climate Change" instead.
Another mysterious tremor yesterday in southern Jersey near Cape May. This is not the first time residents have reported an earthquake over the past few years but yet again, USGS did not detect an earthquake. Even more unusual, the area sits on some pretty solid bedrock. They do acknowledge Navy aircraft testing as a possible cause, but that still doesn't explain the March 2013 incident.
Quoting 323. StormTrackerScott:



Snow appears to aimed toward the SE Coast of the US.


In reading numerous NWS forecast discussions this morning, there's no talk at all of anything more than a little graupel in the Piedmont regions, and absolutely nothing in the way of snow forecast along the Southeast Coast. In fact, snowfall is expected to be concentrated along the higher elevations of the Appalachians from Northern Georgia into Pennsylvania. And the Appalachians, of course, are definitely *not* the "SE Coast". (However, having said all that, if anyone can produce an official forecast cvalling for snow in Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, or Norfolk, I'm willing to listen.)
Quoting 338. Doss2k:



I believe this is the whole reason people moved away from the term "Global Warming" and went with "Climate Change" instead.


"Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Both of the terms in question are used frequently in the scientific literature, because they refer to two different physical phenomena. As the name suggests, 'global warming' refers to the long-term trend of a rising average global temperature

Climate change', again as the name suggests, refers to the changes in the global climate which result from the increasing average global temperature. For example, changes in precipitation patterns, increased prevalence of droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather, etc.

The argument "they changed the name" suggests that the term 'global warming' was previously the norm, and the widespread use of the term 'climate change' is now. However, this is simply untrue. For example, a seminal climate science work is Gilbert Plass' 1956 study 'The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change' (which coincidentally estimated the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 3.6°C, not far off from today's widely accepted most likely value of 3°C). Barrett and Gast published a letter in Science in 1971 entitled simply 'Climate Change'. The journal 'Climatic Change' was created in 1977 (and is still published today). The IPCC was formed in 1988, and of course the 'CC' is 'climate change', not 'global warming'. There are many, many other examples of the use of the term 'climate change' many decades ago. There is nothing new whatsoever about the usage of the term.



Link
Quoting Neapolitan:


In reading numerous NWS forecast discussions this morning, there's no talk at all of anything more than a little graupel in the Piedmont regions, and absolutely nothing in the way of snow forecast along the Southeast Coast. In fact, snowfall is expected to be concentrated along the higher elevations of the Appalachians from Northern Georgia into Pennsylvania. And the Appalachians, of course, are definitely *not* the "SE Coast". (However, having said all that, if anyone can produce an official forecast cvalling for snow in Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, or Norfolk, I'm willing to listen.)


I believe that blogger only posts specific model runs that fit their agenda, forget official NWS forecasts lol. I'm afraid you wont find any snowfall forecasts for anywhere but the mountain regions either.

NWS JAX, just cold.


Looking perfect for the trick or treaters tomorrow!


lets it snow this weekend
Quoting 34. 62901IL:


Here is my naming list.
Albus-character in Harry Potter
Brian-Common name, also one of Dumbledore's middle names
Casey-think Casey's general store
Danny-Hurricane of 1980 or so.
Elisha: uncommon name
Frosty: frosty the snowman
Ganon: 'You dare bring light to my lair? YOU MUST DIE!!!!'
Henriette: Hurricane Henriette 2013
Ivan: Hurricane Ivan 2004
Justin: common name
Kyle: Hurricane Kyle 2008
Larry: Ts Larry 2003
Mary: 'Mary had a little lamb'
Nate: Hurricane nate 2005/2011
Ollie: 'I'm gonna ollie over that rock'
Pete: Weird pete from KODT
Quincy: Quincy, Illinois
Rita: Hurricane Rita 2005
Stan: Hurricane Stan 2005
Tony: Ts Tony 2012
Unala: Ts Unala 2013
Vince: Hurricane Vince 2005
Walter: Common name
Yipper: Dog's name
Zeus: Greek god of the sky
I really hope we get to Ganon. I will be naming all of them.
Criteria: Winter weather advisory must be issued for confirmed name.
Winter storm watch will get an unconfirmed name.

Vongfong 2014: Comments on your names:
All good, and french toast is the funniest.



My favorite is Kyle on your list !
A little energy left over near the Yucatan?

Quoting 340. Neapolitan:



In reading numerous NWS forecast discussions this morning, there's no talk at all of anything more than a little graupel in the Piedmont regions, and absolutely nothing in the way of snow forecast along the Southeast Coast. In fact, snowfall is expected to be concentrated along the higher elevations of the Appalachians from Northern Georgia into Pennsylvania. And the Appalachians, of course, are definitely *not* the "SE Coast". (However, having said all that, if anyone can produce an official forecast cvalling for snow in Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, or Norfolk, I'm willing to listen.)


The piedmont triad might see snow and rain mixed in, the low for Saturday in Wilmington and Myrtle Beach is around 40, were getting just rain here. Sunday is supposed to be beautiful, highs in the mid 50s and sunny.
Quoting 319. WxGuy2014:



I know right, he called me someone else i've never heard of before. So i used the red exclamation point for the first time today because he is quite rude.
I'd rather read a post from someone going out on a limb with a forcast than to read someones post ragging on someone else for going out on said limb...
Passion is cool.
Quoting 299. StormTrackerScott:



Euro pulls a tropical wave across FL in the 180hr range. Weird as we go from Summer to Winter then back to Summer all in a week's time. Crazy weather going on now.

It's called "Autumn".
vongfong2014 and 62901IL you sould not be useing retired hurricane names has winter storms names has the names that you are useing where deadly storms and did and a lot of damges and a lot of people will not like that


the olny ones that sould be doing the nameing of winter storms is TWC so that way we dont get mixs up with you two and TWC doing nameing of winter storms there are going too be a lot of confues in plzs this went TWC do the nameing of winter storms so that way there are no confues in



do not used retired hurricane names for winter storm names the names that you are ueseing where retired for a reson has they where deadly and they kill a lot of people and they did a lot of damge do you see TWC useing retired hurricane names for there winter storms? nop has they would no better has that would make a lot of people that watch TWC up set
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

The depression has become a little better organized with a more
prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However,
recent microwave images show that the center remains on the
southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that
southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression. Although
the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity
estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will
conservatively remain 30 kt.

Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and
dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for
the next day or two. As a result, the latest model guidance does
not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the
trend of showing only slow intensification. After that time, the
global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an
increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more
significant strengthening at longer ranges. The NHC forecast is
closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model
consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment.
Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional
strengthening after that time.

The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the
previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity,
leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt.
The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and
southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge
builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is
forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should
cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward
in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches
the Baja California peninsula. The official NHC forecast is a
little faster than the consensus after accounting for the
unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the
previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting 340. Neapolitan:



In reading numerous NWS forecast discussions this morning, there's no talk at all of anything more than a little graupel in the Piedmont regions, and absolutely nothing in the way of snow forecast along the Southeast Coast. In fact, snowfall is expected to be concentrated along the higher elevations of the Appalachians from Northern Georgia into Pennsylvania. And the Appalachians, of course, are definitely *not* the "SE Coast". (However, having said all that, if anyone can produce an official forecast cvalling for snow in Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, or Norfolk, I'm willing to listen.)


What? No Halloween snow for Naples either?
Quoting 348. help4u:

The #1 thing I have learned from all the experts on global warming on this site is global warming causes all the cold on earth and all the warming.When it gets cold it is actually caused by warming.So no need for fossil fuels any longer since when you feel cold it is really warm.Also record sea ice in antartica is really caused by warming.Tried this experiment last night turned freezer up to 36 last night and still had ice this morning although it was kind of wet.I throw in the towel you guys were right all along.Save us all because after all "The earth is a million degrees hot!"ALGORE2009Although the lava coming out of volcano is 2000 degrees hot it really cooled coming to surface but I have to remember warming causes cold although cold does not exist.Hoax believers march on!! You have billions of government money and Obama to push you over the line.


Perspicacious comment, as always, sir. Profound, well-written, coherent, and jam-packed with compelling facts and watertight logic. Your contributions are much appreciated by scientists everywhere, so keep it up!
vongfong2014 and 62901IL you sould not be useing retired hurricane names has winter storms names has the names that you are useing where deadly storms and did and a lot of damges and a lot of people will not like that


the olny ones that sould be doing the nameing of winter storms is TWC so that way we dont get mixs up with you two and TWC doing nameing of winter storms there are going too be a lot of confues in plzs this went TWC do the nameing of winter storms so that way there are no confues in



do not used retired hurricane names for winter storm names the names that you are ueseing where retired for a reson has they where deadly and they kill a lot of people and they did a lot of damge do you see TWC useing retired hurricane names for there winter storms? nop has they would no better has that would make a lot of people that watch TWC up set
Two things to remember with precip and critical thicknesses- a forecast map shows the thickness line at the forecast time, the precip shows the amount that fell in the last 3 or 6 hours, if the back edge of the 3 or 6 hour precip is near the thickness line, there is a good chance precip ended before thicknesses fell enough for snow.

In coastal locations, all the *magic* thicknesses can be met, but an onshore flow early in the season can mean a shallow warm layer just thick enough to melt snow. I grew up in Massapequa, NY, storms with rain IMBY and snow in the Bronx, quite common. The 287 highway is a useful guide, in Massachusetts, Route 128 is often the magic highway.

Final thing for people in the Deep South- a lot of people just look at the 540 dm thickness and 850 mb 0ºC line and expect snow. I caught severe abuse on the local KHOU-TV 11 local weather forum for pointing out that while the entire saturated column was below freezing, it was barely below freezing, and vapor condensing just a few degrees below freezing will often form sub-cooled liquid, not snow, and the resulting P-type is freezing drizzle and rain, not snow.

Even the local HGX NWS office had fallen into that trap, forecasting 4 inches of snow, and later degreed mets were insisting the models must have missed a layer of air warmer than freezing. Something called an emagram is a useful tool for forecasting P-type. Can be found on NIU forecast sounding generator. Default, of course, the skew-T, for severe lovers, but the emagram easier for Winter p-type forecasting.

This is a snow sounding.

Reported for potentially inciting a riot. lol.

Really got my eye on this Nor'easter. Potential is there for a wicked tempest.

Quoting 346. Grothar:

A little energy left over near the Yucatan?


Well said and the world already suffers from too little.

Quoting 349. Abacosurf:

I'd rather read a post from someone going out on a limb with a forcast than to read someones post ragging on someone else for going out on said limb...
Passion is cool.

Link

winds wnw out of roatan
TWC has no reason to use non-NOAA approved names for Winter storms. Their scientific 'basis' is very loose, they make the rules as they go, and it is mostly about creating Twitter hashtags.


'Fat Guys in the Woods' was bad enough, now 'Haunted Weather', unless there is a big tornado outbreak, and Dr. Forbes is on, I avoid TWC like the plague.
Quoting 335. Neapolitan:



The uneducated, the scientifically-illiterate, and the ideologically-blind will certainly look at every flake of snow and every cold spell this winter as 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, But those who actually take the time to learn about climate and weather--that is, those who understand the extremely complex atmospheric dynamics at play, and who grasp how energy is distributed around the globe and shared between the oceans and the poles and the continents--know quite well just how profoundly incorrect and simplistically childish such a conclusion is. As has been stated before, snow doesn't prove that the planet isn't warming any more than nightfall proves that the sun has been devoured by an angry dragon.
Dammitt....and all this time I thought Puff was just eating his lunch, only to regurgitate the Suns fiery contents...:) This is a good post Nea. I believe that many of us here understand what is truthfully happening with the Earths climate, and the constant polluting of the atmosphere for well over a century has not had a positive effect.
Waiting for the 12Z GFS to see if TD 21L is still my friend. Atlantic Hurricane season is over as far as Texas is concerned, but the East Pac in active years, especially years when it is active late when the storms get recurved rather than head West-Northwest to cooler water and stable air to die as low cloud swirls, it is a good time, especially since my yard has magically missed most of the rain.

And maybe another Josh Morgerman/iCyclone video on YouTube in a month?
Winter Storm 1 has been numbered for the storm in the West.
366. MahFL
Quoting 362. EdMahmoud:

'Fat Guys in the Woods'


Terrible show, on one episode I watched, 4 fat guys supposedly only had a few berries to eat in 3 days, like that really happened.
Quoting 357. EdMahmoud:

Two things to remember with precip and critical thicknesses- a forecast map shows the thickness line at the forecast time, the precip shows the amount that fell in the last 3 or 6 hours, if the back edge of the 3 or 6 hour precip is near the thickness line, there is a good chance precip ended before thicknesses fell enough for snow.

In coastal locations, all the *magic* thicknesses can be met, but an onshore flow early in the season can mean a shallow warm layer just thick enough to melt snow. I grew up in Massapequa, NY, storms with rain IMBY and snow in the Bronx, quite common. The 287 highway is a useful guide, in Massachusetts, Route 128 is often the magic highway.

Final thing for people in the Deep South- a lot of people just look at the 540 dm thickness and 850 mb 0ºC line and expect snow. I caught severe abuse on the local KHOU-TV 11 local weather forum for pointing out that while the entire saturated column was below freezing, it was barely below freezing, and vapor condensing just a few degrees below freezing will often form sub-cooled liquid, not snow, and the resulting P-type is freezing drizzle and rain, not snow.

Even the local HGX NWS office had fallen into that trap, forecasting 4 inches of snow, and later degreed mets were insisting the models must have missed a layer of air warmer than freezing. Something called an emagram is a useful tool for forecasting P-type. Can be found on NIU forecast sounding generator. Default, of course, the skew-T, for severe lovers, but the emagram easier for Winter p-type forecasting.

This is a snow sounding.




Hey, is the All American Hamburger place still there? I spent more than one night eating rice pudding at the Massapequa diner.
Quoting 364. EdMahmoud:

Waiting for the 12Z GFS to see if TD 21L is still my friend. Atlantic Hurricane season is over as far as Texas is concerned, but the East Pac in active years, especially years when it is active late when the storms get recurved rather than head West-Northwest to cooler water and stable air to die as low cloud swirls, it is a good time, especially since my yard has magically missed most of the rain.

And maybe another Josh Morgerman/iCyclone video on YouTube in a month?


TD 21L ??? you mean TD 21E E stans for E PAC L storms for Atlantic
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

winds wnw out of roatan


This this just won't die

Lol
I think it might have beaten Karren lol
The storm in the east is Winter Storm 2.
Quoting 366. MahFL:



Terrible show, on one episode I watched, 4 fat guys supposedly only had a few berries to eat in 3 days, like that really happened.


What they didn't show you was the 6 buckets of fried chicken and 8 lbs of potato salad hidden in their knapsacks. I heard one of them paid the camera guy to slip him a few Cadbury chocolate bars.
Quoting 367. Grothar:



Hey, is the All American Hamburger place still there? I spent more than one night eating rice pudding at the Massapequa diner.


I used to eat there. I've been gone for 30+ years.
374. eddye
did u guys see the latest discussion for nov 7 looks really cold for south fla