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Tropical Depression Nine Forms in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:56 PM GMT on October 22, 2014

Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, and will bring dangerous heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula the next two days. Satellite loops show that TD 9 has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and these thunderstorms are poorly organized, due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy showed only one spiral band associated with the storm. Dry air from Mexico flowing eastwards over the western Gulf of Mexico is slowing development, but the topography of the mountains along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche is helping to create counter-clockwise spin for TD 9, and likely aided in its formation despite the high wind shear. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, about 29.5°C. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating TD 9 on Wednesday morning, and found a well-defined surface circulation, top surface winds near 35 mph, and a central pressure of 1003 mb at 8:25 am EDT.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 9 in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, October 22, 2014.


Figure 2. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy showing one spiral band associated with TD 9 at 8:30 am EDT Wednesday October 22, 2014.

Forecast for TD 9
TD 9 is expected to move eastwards into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, and likely has time to intensify into a 45 mph tropical storm, at the strongest, before making landfall. (The next name on the tropical storm list is Hanna.) The storm will spend most of Thursday with its center over land, and is small enough that passage over land may cause it to dissipate. Once TD 9 or its remnants are over the Western Caribbean on Friday and Saturday, it will interact with a trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicts that while wind shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Thursday - Saturday, the trough will inject a large amount of dry air, discouraging development. The trough of low pressure will pull out of the Western Caribbean on Saturday, and may leave behind an area of spin in the Western Caribbean that would potentially have the capability to develop into a strong tropical storm or hurricane, as predicted by many of the ensemble members of the 00Z Wednesday morning run of the GFS model. The European and UKMET models are not showing this solution, but I think we have to be concerned about the possibility of a potentially dangerous tropical cyclone in the Western Caribbean early next week. It's a complicated meteorological situation, and the long-term forecast is murky.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 488. wunderkidcayman:



NWS says watches may be put into place over the weekend if needed and
Small craft warning is issued and to take effect on Sat

Quoting 489. LargoFl:

we have to wait this one out and see what happens..it could..die out over land..no one really knows yet.


k...guess we will find out by friday or weekend...hopefully
So with that said you would not find warning or watches issued yet obviously
well so far..whatever it becomes..comes to the gulf and florida..........................
Quoting 501. nygiants:


k...guess we will find out by friday or weekend...hopefully
yes im guessing by sunday they should have a very good idea
http://mashable.com/2014/10/22/national-weather-ser vice-satellite-data-goes-dark/

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SATELLITE GOES DARK (News Article)

DUE TO NESDIS CONTINUING NETWORK ISSUES...NCEP HAS NOT RECEIVED A FULL FEED OF SATELLITE DATA FOR INPUT INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS SINCE 22/0000Z...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MODEL FORECASTS. NESDIS AND NCEP ARE INVESTIGATING THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE ISSUE. ONCE THE SITUATION IS RESOLVED ANOTHER MESSAGE WILL FOLLOW.
well I cannot believe the GFS anymore..i used to like it...now its got a Tampa bay hit with something nov 4-5th........
Quoting 505. nygiants:

http://mashable.com/2014/10/22/national-weather-se r vice-satellite-data-goes-dark/

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SATELLITE GOES DARK (News Article)

DUE TO NESDIS CONTINUING NETWORK ISSUES...NCEP HAS NOT RECEIVED A FULL FEED OF SATELLITE DATA FOR INPUT INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS SINCE 22/0000Z...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MODEL FORECASTS. NESDIS AND NCEP ARE INVESTIGATING THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE ISSUE. ONCE THE SITUATION IS RESOLVED ANOTHER MESSAGE WILL FOLLOW.
thank you for this...so we cannot trust the models
507...But Largo, you can trust the NHC and the NWS.
Convection starting to pop up around the LLC as it nears land

I'm guessing it's trying to ramp up a bit to allow it to survive the track across the Yucatan
Quoting 507. LargoFl:

thank you for this...so we cannot trust the models

No not at this time...just the basics...news forcasts and whatever the HH Find lol And the Hurricane was on models before the outage so when it happened the data wasnt feeding into the models and didnt show up...so someone in blog put something about a Hurricane Tuesday/Wednesday (No-Hype lol)
Quoting 453. HurriHistory:

OK, the latest GFS has come out and still no further cyclone development shown in the NW Caribbean next week. I think its safe to say "That's it" "Its Over" "That's all she wrote" The 2014-Atlantic Hurricane Season is Over Rover. So now we turn onto a new page and start tracking Cold Fronts, Blizzards, Noreasters and Ice. Lets hope next Hurricane Season will be a little more active because this one like last years was a real DRAG.
I usually agree with you, but this time no...I believe we get two more....
It's so fun to watch these things crank up. Boston is gusting to 45kts. Puts whatever TD 9 is to shame.

18z HWRF still develops 09L just East of Yucatan at 123 hours 997 MB
Quoting 503. LargoFl:

well so far..whatever it becomes..comes to the gulf and florida..........................

WOW!
nrt, if you're on...is their rapid scan for TD9? Or is that effected by the satellite outage?
Quoting 509. wunderkidcayman:

Convection starting to pop up around the LLC as it nears land

I'm guessing it's trying to ramp up a bit to allow it to survive the track across the Yucatan

Sometimes storms actually strengthen over land around the Yucatan, have to watch this one close! BTW Recon is investigating TD 9 Again.
Quoting 508. GeoffreyWPB:

507...But Largo, you can trust the NHC and the NWS.
yes that's so true especially now...thanks
Quoting 516. stormpetrol:


Sometimes storms actually strengthen over land around the Yucatan, have to watch this one close! BTW Recon is investigating TD 9 Again.

There investigating now?
...i feel that this may be "the calm" before the storm (TS/Hurricane)...but we will see..
Sarcasm: on.

Models are impacted, so you mean I might have to rely on people that have spent their entire life learning how to forecast hurricanes??

Sarcasm Off:

Hope they get it fixed. this is the worst time to have sats go down.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
We can't see the sat pics because of a distribution or internet problems. They still may be being transmitted and NHC may still have them. I am pretty confident that it is not affecting either their forecasts or the models.


THEIR OFFICIAL RESPONSE ----

Hi Brian,

Thank you for contacting us at weather.gov with your concern.

We are aware of the problem with out-of-date or unavailable satellite imagery. The issue is due to a major outage at NESDIS (the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service), which provides the satellite data to other parts of NOAA, including weather.gov.

Please be assured that everyone here is working to restore functionality. Unfortunately we cannot offer an estimate as to when service may be restored.

Thanks for using weather.gov.

--
Stephen Clouse
Software/Web Developer
National Weather Service
NWS Internet Dissemination System
http://weather.gov/
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine, located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.

Shower activity associated with a large non-tropical low located
over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south of
the western Azores has diminished. Environmental conditions are
becoming less conducive, and the low is expected to weaken over the
next few days while it meanders. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
non-tropical low pressure area is developing over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. The low is expected to move east-northeastward,
and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to cause heavy rainfall and
locally gusty winds over western Cuba, the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
Quoting 517. LargoFl:

yes that's so true especially now...thanks

Not to be pessimistic lol but what if there models are messed up lol
Quoting stormpetrol:

Sometimes storms actually strengthen over land around the Yucatan, have to watch this one close! BTW Recon is investigating TD 9 Again.

Oh geez thank mate I didn't realise RECON was in there thanks a ton
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...SMALL DEPRESSION NEARING THE COAST OF CAMPECHE...
...COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 91.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
WILL MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE
DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A REMNANT
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
Advisory out for TD9

States TD is nearing the coastline and it could degenerate tonight or Wednesday I'm sure they mean Thursday

I think it just may survive the track through the Yucatan
Quoting 502. wunderkidcayman:

So with that said you would not find warning or watches issued yet obviously


Is that the answer to my question? No sure? That doesn't make sense. You said that the NWS is stating that watches and warnings might be posted and I simply asking where they posted it.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the
associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day.
Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is
kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the
shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will
attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan
peninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the
cyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses
Yucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There
is also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24
hours or so. The GFS changed its tune significantly between the
06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the
Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one.
On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone
for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly
uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone
in the next run.
Talk about a twist. Recon is currently flying, correct? Going to be interesting if TD9 holds it together over land.

Quoting 519. Dakster:

Sarcasm: on.

Models are impacted, so you mean I might have to rely on people that have spent their entire life learning how to forecast hurricanes??

Sarcasm Off:

Hope they get it fixed. this is the worst time to have sats go down.
Quoting 515. GeoffreyWPB:

nrt, if you're on...is their rapid scan for TD9? Or is that effected by the satellite outage?


They are not doing RSO at this time but there is a normal ghcc loop which is an image every fifteen minutes.

Sun going down but you can change "info=vis" to "info=ir"
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's so fun to watch these things crank up. Boston is gusting to 45kts. Puts whatever TD 9 is to shame.



There was a gust of 51 mph on Long Island earlier. This storm is definitely unique; it's boasting features I don't recall seeing in nor'easters past. Look at the oddly organized cell that spun off the Mid Atlantic coast about an hour ago:
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2331Z WED OCT 22 2014

NCEP IS NOW RECEIVING THE FOLLOWING NESDIS SATELLITE DATA FOR 00Z
MODEL INGEST..

NPP - CRiS AND ATMS DATA
GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
GOES RADIANCES
GOES SOUNDING PRODUCTS


THE FOLLOWING DATA TYPES CONTINUE TO BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE
MODELS..

MODIS IR AND WV WINDS
OMI OZONE DATA
AIRS HYPERSPECTRAL SOUNDER DATA
COSMIC GPS-RADIO OCCULTATION DATA


NESDIS CONTINUES TO WORK ON RESTORING ALL THEIR SATELLITE DATA
PRODUCTS..

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE SATELLITE
DATA OUTAGE ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.. BUT THE
DEGRADATION OF THE MODELS INCREASES WITH AN EXTENDED OUTAGE..
Quoting 424. LargoFl:

Gro did you see that south florida wants to break away from florida and become its own state?


Si.
Quoting 526. jrweatherman:



Is that the answer to my question? No sure? That doesn't make sense. You said that the NWS is stating that watches and warnings might be posted and I simply asking where they posted it.
Are you missing something important? WKC is referring to the Cayman Islands Weather Service -- are you? Or are you looking at one of the US NWS sites? Could be a BIG difference!
Quoting 532. Grothar:



Si.


Long live Grotharia!
Quoting 496. wunderkidcayman:

Just confirmed it with the relevant department

If it is needed the relevant watches or warning will be put into place


You soooo crack me up!! In a good way
Quoting 533. CaneFreeCR:

Are you missing something important? WKC is referring to the Cayman Islands Weather Service -- are you? Or are you looking at one of the US NWS sites? Could be a BIG difference!



The Cayman NWS. He said that they are saying that watches and warnings could be posted this weekend. I thought that was irresponsible for them to say that based on the current situation and asked him where it was posted.
According to recon data LLC is now moving ENE-NE still offshore
Quoting 532. Grothar:



Si.

Trying to imagine its flag. :)
Murky!!

National Weather Service Satellite Data Goes Dark, Forecasts May Suffer
Mashable, two hours ago
The National Weather Service has stopped receiving a full complement of important weather data from the network of weather satellites orbiting the planet for at least a day, which may make the agency's forecasts less accurate with time.
This is the latest in a series of technology snafus during the past few years that together point to an agency that needs some serious IT upgrades, although the agency maintains that its systems are sufficiently redundant to prevent any one outage from crippling its ability to protect lives and property. This does not appear related to any solar storm activity. ...


(More details here at WP/CWG: Weather Service stops receiving satellite data, issues notice about forecast quality, by Jason Samenow, October 22 at 3:40 pm)

Ummm, obviously just a bad coincidence with this giant earth directed sunspot? (Which turned quiet for the moment - and I really hope it stays this way!) Look here for updates.
A quiet night for all from Germany which obviously survived Ex-Gonzalo (at least no more howling winds outside my flat any more ;-)
Time to try to forecast like the old days.
By surface analysis and whatever radar you're lucky to get.
Maybe many might learn something from "going without".
As long as we're not getting RADIO OCCULTATION DATA you can toss the models in the trash.
Quoting 539. HarryMc:


Trying to imagine its flag. :)


Or maybe Twitsylvania.
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Are you missing something important? WKC is referring to the Cayman Islands Weather Service -- are you? Or are you looking at one of the US NWS sites? Could be a BIG difference!

Yes Cayman NWS
Quoting 535. gobucsgo:



You soooo crack me up!! In a good way


Oh, so I missed his post. My answer to that is - whatever.
Gro,

The good thing about south Florida is that it is located close to the United States...

BTW - Back in MIami at the moment... Didn't realize how much I hate the heat and humidity until I got back.
Quoting 543. wunderkidcayman:


Yes Cayman NWS


So then I assume they didn't tell the public that, just you. Now I get it.
So we are not to believe any model runs about TD9 until the satellites are fixed, or is this some wish caster's idea?
Now that a non tropical area of low pressure is developing near by the upper level winds must be very unfavorable for TD 9 to survive. Only in ideal upper level conditions has tropical systems been able to not only survive but increased in organization and strength crossing over flat terrain. This has happen occasionally in the past few years. One classic example was Karina as it crossed South Florida increasing in strength and organization as it headed into the Gulf of Mexico in Aug 2004.
I'm surprised the HAARP conspiracy people haven't blame the outage on them using it.
TD9 is just 12 miles off shore. The pressure is up to 1004mb. Very feeble system. Levi spoke this morning in his Tidbit that the disturbance in the SE GOM was robbing it of energy.
Quoting 548. unknowncomic:

So we are not to believe any model runs about TD9 until the satellites are fixed, or is this some wish caster's idea?

If I'm interpreting nrt's post 531 correctly, the exact impact on the models is unknown, but any problems that they are having will only get worse the longer the new data is missing. So be wary of the models until it's fixed. But it doesn't take an advanced model to figure out that TD 9 is close to becoming a remnant low and increasingly unlikely to ever become a named storm. That's good old fashioned meteorology :)
Quoting jrweatherman:


So then I assume they didn't tell the public that, just you. Now I get it.


I work there and asked the boss who's a good close friend and he said that depending on what it does and if it survives the track cross the Yucatan and enters the NW Carib as an active tropical system then yes watches and warning may be needed
Quoting 551. floridaT:

I'm surprised the HAARP conspiracy people haven't blame the outage on them using it.



I thought they took down the HAARP sites. I know they took the one in Alaska off line. Unless you think they are still running it after they said they shut it down.
No flight-level winds above 25kt, a weak (although well-defined) low-level center, and no organized convection atop the core--I think it's time the NHC called this one off for now, if not permanently.

Hmm I think the AOI near the Yucatan peninsula W Cuba and SE GOM may actually allow TD9 to survive its track across land

Hmm just a thought there
Quoting 548. unknowncomic:

So we are not to believe any model runs about TD9 until the satellites are fixed, or is this some wish caster's idea?

I'm confused.
Anyway, last night chances were 70% tonight they're considerably less with possibility of dissipation, butnot without dumping significant rain on Yucatan Peninsula.
SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/2100 UTC IS IN THE
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.2N 91.7W.

THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 78 NM TO THE WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ESE AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...

Regardless of what happens to TD9, body paint will still be washed off for Kookie Weekend in the Keys. LinkCIMSS Satellite of GOM
Quoting 512. MAweatherboy1:

It's so fun to watch these things crank up. Boston is gusting to 45kts. Puts whatever TD 9 is to shame.


Yep..The largest baroclinic lows put most hurricanes to shame, nevermind a T.D.
Interesting little developments. No wonder they are having trouble with this one. Maybe our eyes should focus elsewhere.


Quoting 558. Grothar:


Impressive to look at , is that a spin in there..?..;)
Quoting 558. Grothar:




0/0....You think that will change?
This could be Wilma revisited for South Florida... Well, not as bad as Wilma... But a Wilma like track.
Quoting 554. wunderkidcayman:



I work there and asked the boss who's a good close friend and he said that depending on what it does and if it survives the track cross the Yucatan and enters the NW Carib as an active tropical system then yes watches and warning may be needed


Must be a cool job! What is your position there?
Quoting 545. jrweatherman:



Oh, so I missed his post. My answer to that is - whatever.
Sorry I don't usually Post so I didn't quote the right way
Quoting 532. Grothar:


Si.
If south Florida wants to break away and become it's a state all I can say is Go for IT!!
T
ok at this point what possibilities are left for this to turn into a stronger system and affect the US?
TD9 is rebuilding convection around its LLC
Quoting 560. hydrus:

Yep..The largest baroclinic lows put most hurricanes to shame, nevermind a T.D.

It's gotten pretty serious in spots, thousands are without power in parts of eastern MA and RI, trees down, and it's going to get worse before it gets better tonight. Winds gusting close to 60mph on top of Blue Hill.
Quoting 562. hydrus:

Impressive to look at , is that a spin in there..?..;)


Other than TD 9 I don't see any other low level spin. However, while TD 9 could well be the catalyst for something to develop later in the Caribbean, I never take my eyes off other possibilities. Over analyzing is not always the answer. There are times that elongated areas of low pressure often split, or other vortices may develop on their own.

Very weak signature on radar. Link However you can definitely see the circulation and weak spiral banding. I don't know if it will survive its trek across the Yucatan though. Windy and rainy here in Cayman right now and if we get a few more days of just rain that's fine with me!
AL, 09, 2014102218, 193N, 919W, 30, 1003, TD
AL, 09, 2014102300, 191N, 912W, 25, 1004, TD
Hey guys, I just spoke with my pals at the NWS in Ruskin. They said that if TD9 survives the Yucatan Peninsula, and if it were to develop and if it were to move north into the GOM and if the 60kt wind shear were to subside then we might have a storm in our area next week. They would have to issue watches then warnings for us. Wow!
Quoting 531. nrtiwlnvragn:

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2331Z WED OCT 22 2014

NCEP IS NOW RECEIVING THE FOLLOWING NESDIS SATELLITE DATA FOR 00Z
MODEL INGEST..

NPP - CRiS AND ATMS DATA
GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
GOES RADIANCES
GOES SOUNDING PRODUCTS


THE FOLLOWING DATA TYPES CONTINUE TO BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE
MODELS..

MODIS IR AND WV WINDS
OMI OZONE DATA
AIRS HYPERSPECTRAL SOUNDER DATA
COSMIC GPS-RADIO OCCULTATION DATA


NESDIS CONTINUES TO WORK ON RESTORING ALL THEIR SATELLITE DATA
PRODUCTS..

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE SATELLITE
DATA OUTAGE ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.. BUT THE
DEGRADATION OF THE MODELS INCREASES WITH AN EXTENDED OUTAGE..


Nrt ,
does the ECMWF/UKMET go off the Eumetsat?
The wind shear in the eastern Gulf is remaining very high.

Quoting 577. GeoffreyWPB:




Not sure if this should be called Model Guidance......Think they covered the entire compass as to where it might head lol
Looks like Caymans are getting drenched.

Quoting 557. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm I think the AOI near the Yucatan peninsula W Cuba and SE GOM may actually allow TD9 to survive its track across land

Hmm just a thought there
Stormpetrol is with you, he was saying that earlier.
Think TD9 will be gone at 11:00 pm.

Hmm I've just noticed that TD9 is moving faster
If this trend was to continue while it tracks over the Yucatan then it would enter the Caribbean a lot quicker giving it less chance to dissipate and more chance to strengthen or redevelop once in the NW Caribbean

Just another thought
Quoting 580. unknowncomic:

Looks like Caymans are getting drenched.




We are just south of that blob. But we are getting scattered showers. Link
Quoting 559. Chicklit:


I'm confused.
Anyway, last night chances were 70% tonight they're considerably less with possibility of dissipation, butnot without dumping significant rain on Yucatan Peninsula.
SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/2100 UTC IS IN THE
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.2N 91.7W.

THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 78 NM TO THE WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ESE AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...

Regardless of what happens to TD9, body paint will still be washed off for Kookie Weekend in the Keys. LinkCIMSS Satellite of GOM
Chance has dropped to zero for now because it could dissipate over land, but if it moves faster it might get under that blob and zing.
Eastern Long Island is getting hammered. Power outages being reported around Montauk.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
ANZ330-340-350-230130-
/O.NEW.KOKX.MA.W.0077.141023T0052Z-141023T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
852 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM...
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS...
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

* AT 850 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS FROM 16 NM SOUTHEAST OF BLOCK ISLAND SOUND TO 10 NM SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE PECONIC BAY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 KT.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NAPEAGUE BAY AROUND 900 PM...
GARDINERS ISLAND AROUND 910 PM...
WESTERN BLOCK ISLAND SOUND...GARDINERS BAY...SHELTER ISLAND...
SHELTER ISLAND SOUND AROUND 915 PM...
THE RACE...PLUM ISLAND...ORIENT POINT...HORTON POINT AROUND 925
PM...

Quoting unknowncomic:
Looks like Caymans are getting drenched.


You would be surprised

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hmm the big blob in the extreme NW Caribbean SE GOM Cuba area has split
One is moving into TD9 and the other is sticking near to the Vort Max near Cuba

Also TD9 starting to rebuild convection

Hmm it appears that TD9 wants to fight to stay alive as it track across the Yucatan
Hmm TD9 may just actually make it





i had a wind gust up to 60 mph in new haven,conn heavy rain from this big nor'easter
i saw big lightning outside in this big nor'easter winds at 40 mph and gusting to 65 mph right now in new haven,conn this nor'easter got more higher winds then this T.D we are watching right now!!
587...Again, what do you do at the Cayman NWS? If it's top secret, I understand. Also, are you saying that TD9 is rebuilding convection inland?
Quoting 588. hurricanes2018:




i had a wind gust up to 60 mph in new haven,conn heavy rain from this big nor'easter


Rough night in the Northeast. Stay safe!
TD9 LLC is starting to show up better on Mex radar

Link
590. Well if you look at the satelite and the radar
And answer you question
Quoting 582. GeoffreyWPB:

Think TD9 will be gone at 11:00 pm.




Looking at that satellite I would agree. There's almost nothing there. I think the much larger disturbance in the SE GOM has killed it. It could be why the GFS has dropped developing a system in the NW Caribbean. Complicated situation.
Quoting 557. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm I think the AOI near the Yucatan peninsula W Cuba and SE GOM may actually allow TD9 to survive its track across land

Hmm just a thought there

...why?

If anything, the convective mess across the Yucatan Channel of much-needed inflow into TD Nine that it could use to intensify before landfall. We need to see a better organized cyclone before it makes landfall if this thing is going to sustain itself over the Yucatan Peninsula; obviously, that's not the case.
Quoting 592. wunderkidcayman:

TD9 LLC is starting to show up better on Mex radar

Link


Yea but compare that radar to the Keys radar and you will see where all the energy has gone.


Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
non-tropical low pressure area is developing over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. The low is expected to move east-northeastward,
and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to cause heavy rainfall and
locally gusty winds over western Cuba, the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

why a yellow x right next to T.D 9
Quoting 575. luvtogolf:

Hey guys, I just spoke with my pals at the NWS in Ruskin. They said that if TD9 survives the Yucatan Peninsula, and if it were to develop and if it were to move north into the GOM and if the 60kt wind shear were to subside then we might have a storm in our area next week. They would have to issue watches then warnings for us. Wow!


Are you poking fun at someone?
Hi - this is a repost :
To those who have not found a work around to the NOAA "floaters page ... this works. I'm still seeing comments about the sat data. - g'nite



For those that would like a "floater" animation of 09L but have not found a working link, please give this a try

Go to the NRL tropical page LinkLink

Click on 09L.NINE in the upper left (it might show up as 93L.INVEST - just click around until the page updates)
Click on the latest image lower right to get a larger image
Mouse hover over "Loop" in the upper middle and when the menu appears, click on "instant"
It might take a while to load, but it's a pretty good floater

Quoting HarryMc:

Trying to imagine its flag. :)
So far, I have mermaids, sirens and amazons vying for the affections of real estate developers.


600...Thank you for that docrod....This works also...

Link
Quoting 575. luvtogolf:

Hey guys, I just spoke with my pals at the NWS in Ruskin. They said that if TD9 survives the Yucatan Peninsula, and if it were to develop and if it were to move north into the GOM and if the 60kt wind shear were to subside then we might have a storm in our area next week. They would have to issue watches then warnings for us. Wow!


Can I come over for the hurricane party?
LOl, I was reading an archive from 2005 and the number of comments got into the high 200's and someone posted to Dr M. that he should write a new blog because there were too many comments. Little did he know what would become of this blog.
I know everything in this comment section is geared toward the tropical Atlantic right now. But I would like to call your attention to this:



Definitely looks pretty powerful
Quoting 603. Naga5000:



Can I come over for the hurricane party?


Sure, I'll treat you to a quick 18 then we'll put down a few cold ones.
Not Following the blog too closely these days ... just too busy. Thought some of you would find this interesting though; hope it is not a repost~

The Washington Post:

"Weather Service stops receiving satellite data, issues notice about forecast quality
"

Link
Quoting 605. Speeky:

I know everything in this comment section is geared toward the tropical Atlantic right now. But I would like to call your attention to this:




I posted a comment just a little while ago to someone else telling them to be safe - rough night in New England.
Quoting 608. jrweatherman:



I posted a comment just a little while ago to someone else telling them to be safe - rough night in New England.


Oh, Oops. Well at least people are aware of this. It really should be a rough night in the North East.
Quoting 602. GeoffreyWPB:

600...Thank you for that docrod....This works also...

Link


Of course - Intellicast - ty GeoffreyWPB I did not know that... I suspect Plymouth College is working too as is College of DuPage however COD does not show images "south enough" - I like how Intellicast integrates other countries weather radars in their displays. Very handy for use in the Florida Keys.

take care - heading for bed - I'm an early bird
Quoting 609. Speeky:



Oh, Oops. Well at least people are aware of this. It really should be a rough night in the North East.


Eh. ~30 mph winds.. gusts slightly higher. The puppy isn't happy about her first storm, but it's nothing that can't be weathered, pardon the pun. My biggest problem is the wind blowing turning wet leaves into my gutters, meaning I'll be spending Saturday on a ladder this weekend.
612. yoboi
Was Wilma in 2005 the last major that made landfall in the USA??????
Some nasty bands have been ripping through here. I'm located just south of Boston and the power is out in many of the surrounding towns. One big mean Nor'Easter!

Best lightning all year here BTW
It's very possible the 11PM advisory on TD 9 will be the last... For now at least, probably for good. This isn't a tropical cyclone. Vigorous circulation, but it lacks the convective organization.

Personally, I'm convinced the non-tropical low in front of 09L robbed the storm of its inflow and that's what's causing the disheveled appearance we're seeing now. Of course, the shear isn't helping either, but I think the non-tropical low was the final straw.
Quoting 583. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm I've just noticed that TD9 is moving faster
If this trend was to continue while it tracks over the Yucatan then it would enter the Caribbean a lot quicker giving it less chance to dissipate and more chance to strengthen or redevelop once in the NW Caribbean

Just another thought

Time will tell!
Quoting 614. MAweatherboy1:

It's very possible the 11PM advisory on TD 9 will be the last... For now at least, probably for good. This isn't a tropical cyclone. Vigorous circulation, but it lacks the convective organization.




hopefully we don't need or want it here!
Dat windshear doe!!! It's insane
Link

It's a firehose here. Look at the bands firing up once they come ashore south of Boston
(How do I directly link the clip so it appears on my post?? Sorry, I'm new here)
Quoting 613. BostonBulldog:

Some nasty bands have been ripping through here. I'm located just south of Boston and the power is out in many of the surrounding towns. One big mean Nor'Easter!

Best lightning all year here BTW

I'm jealous! Wish I coulda been home for this. Maybe I'll get into some storms late tonight or tomorrow morning though (I'm up in Plymouth, NH at the University here). Winds have still been blowing pretty good here though.
09L/OL/PTD/XX/XX
Wave heights on Buoy 44013 just east of Boston.
Quoting 614. MAweatherboy1:

It's very possible the 11PM advisory on TD 9 will be the last... For now at least, probably for good. This isn't a tropical cyclone. Vigorous circulation, but it lacks the convective organization.


I would be very surprise if the NHC don't kill it at 11pm.
Wow. According to CNN the temperature can drop 20 C during a total eclipse! In just a couple minutes!

It usually takes all night for the temperature to drop just 20 F here :)

Will Charleston SC set a low in the 50s during the afternoon of August 21, 2017?

#lowinformationmedia

Quoting 613. BostonBulldog:

Some nasty bands have been ripping through here. I'm located just south of Boston and the power is out in many of the surrounding towns. One big mean Nor'Easter!

Best lightning all year here BTW


Condolences to all Canadians for the events this week.
Quoting 594. jrweatherman:



Looking at that satellite I would agree. There's almost nothing there. I think the much larger disturbance in the SE GOM has killed it. It could be why the GFS has dropped developing a system in the NW Caribbean. Complicated situation.
It does not quite work like that. Lows only die when they have been drained to the north or south pole. They can transfer in various ways but it ain't dead. The terrain of the Yucatan can throw off some armchair meteorologists, but rest assured, this low will come out on the other side of the peninsula before you can pay attention.
Quoting 619. BostonBulldog:

Link

It's a firehose here. Look at the bands firing up once they come ashore south of Boston
(How do I directly link the clip so it appears on my post?? Sorry, I'm new here)


It looks pretty damn bad!
Latest band arrived with a bang. House shaking thunder, very impressive lightning and heavy rain. I think I'm hearing the occasional ping right now. Tree went down across the street in the last band.

The contrast between these bands and lulls is impressive. Very uncharacteristic for a Nor'easter.
we are now getting in too that time of year when the nhc dos the updates at 10pm not 11pm


seee


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.





NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
Taz, that's because the depression is in the central time zone. The time of updates won't change until standard time begins Nov 2nd.
Quoting 633. DonnieBwkGA:

Taz, that's because the depression is in the central time zone. The time of updates won't change until standard time begins Nov 2nd.


TY Donnie. I was about to say...lol.
Quoting 631. BostonBulldog:

Latest band arrived with a bang. House shaking thunder, very impressive lightning and heavy rain. I think I'm hearing the occasional ping right now. Tree went down across the street in the last band.

The contrast between these bands and lulls is impressive. Very uncharacteristic for a Nor'easter.


Yeah with the kind of convective activity we've been seeing (especially with the crazy meso lows offshore) I think it'd be a misnomer to call this a nor'easter. It seems like some freak hybrid.
Quoting 628. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Almost looks sub-tropical.
Quoting 635. wxgeek723:



Yeah with the kind of convective activity we've been seeing (especially with the crazy meso lows offshore) I think it'd be a misnomer to call this a nor'easter. It seems like some freak hybrid.


Have you seen the latest HRRR? it tries to turn the storm into a full blown warm core haha.
Quoting 632. Tazmanian:

we are now getting in too that time of year when the nhc dos the updates at 10pm not 11pm


seee


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.





NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.


No that's the right time...
Quoting 637. Abacosurf:



Almost looks sub-tropical.


hang on I get a close up sat shot of the area too look at
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening. Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the
maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum
pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast. The
system has not produced a significant area of organized deep
convection since late this morning and it is therefore being
declared a remnant low at this time. The low is expected to weaken
during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula. If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.
The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and
call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during
the next few days. The updated NHC track has been shifted a little
left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and
the multi-model consensus.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to this system.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.9N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
So it's not going to bear down on Florida anymore?
Quoting BostonBulldog:


Have you seen the latest HRRR? it tries to turn the storm into a full blown warm core haha.


Maybe that line that just sat over Block Island was the eyewall? Hahaha. This reminds me of a similar storm in December 1994 which also had strangely deep central convection and its nature was questioned.
XX/XX/XX
Quoting 643. wxgeek723:



Maybe that line that just sat over Block Island was the eyewall? Hahaha. This reminds me of a similar storm in December 1994 which also had strangely deep central convection and its nature was questioned.


Some people swear that was tropical. Talk about a Screaming Sou'Easter.

The only storm I remember going fully Tropical was the Perfect Storm in 1991, and honestly it was much worse while it was cold-core.
well looks like taz can now rip 09l
So were the models totally wrong or could the remnants of ex-TD9 make a miracle comeback?
Is it at all possible for it to re-emerge or form any Low, TD etc in Caribbean when it gets to the Caribbean...... and whats going on with the Yellow X in the Southern Gulf, Any chance at all in future? (opinions, not by what NHC says 0/0) :D
Quoting 630. Abacosurf:



It looks pretty damn bad!
Yeah, they got a serious squall south of Boston, and the tip of the island, but most of it is just beneficial rain. The northern half of Connecticut can always use it because of the granite hill structure and the puke green dams. Right north of NYC, NY is going to get plenty, like they need it.
Quoting 647. 12george1:

So were the models totally wrong or could the remnants of ex-TD9 make a miracle comeback?
models were really not wrong it showed a stretched out system or two lows in the first place with a mostly heavy rain threat for that area in the short term
Wow
TD9 is now post tropical
It's still expected to enter the NW Caribbean but NHC thinks that shear and dry air would prevent redevelopment and sees total dissipation by 96hrs

I think this will not be the case but let's see what happens once it reaches the NW Caribbean

Looking at the intensity forecast models weakening was expected but with restrengthening by the time it reaches the NW Caribbean
To be fair, it's not completely impossible it will regenerate in four to five days, but that solution has no model support at this point, and the small size of the remnant circulation, which will already be disrupted by Yucatan, will make surviving the initial shear exceedingly difficult.

Oh well. Maybe next time.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1026 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 41.20N 72.12W
10/22/2014 M57 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET

49.3 KT GUST
Quoting 633. DonnieBwkGA:

Taz, that's because the depression is in the central time zone. The time of updates won't change until standard time begins Nov 2nd.



oh ok thanks
Quoting 651. wunderkidcayman:

Wow
TD9 is now post tropical
It's still expected to enter the NW Caribbean but NHC thinks that shear and dry air would prevent redevelopment and sees total dissipation by 96hrs

I think this will not be the case but let's see what happens once it reaches the NW Caribbean

Looking at the intensity forecast models weakening was expected but with restrengthening by the time it reaches the NW Caribbean

SO , it is still possible...just wait and see game and WHATS GOING ON WITH THE GFS? WILL IT COME BACK WITH THE HURRICANE, OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW SOMETHING
Quoting 646. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well looks like taz can now rip 09l


yep RIP TD 9


so this season we had TD 2 rip and TD 9 rip and this season we are running out of time
Interesting...

Weather Service stops receiving satellite data, issues notice about forecast quality

Since at least Tuesday, some satellite data – an important input to weather prediction models – has stopped flowing into the National Weather Service due to an apparent network outage.

At 1 p.m. today, the National Weather Service’s National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) issued the following statement cautioning the outage could impact forecast quality:

NCEP HAS NOT RECEIVED A FULL FEED OF SATELLITE DATA FOR INPUT INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS SINCE 22/0000Z…POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MODEL FORECASTS.NESDIS AND NCEP ARE INVESTIGATING THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE ISSUE. ONCE THE SITUATION IS RESOLVED ANOTHER MESSAGE WILL FOLLOW.

It is unclear if the data outage is only impacting the National Weather Service or whether it extends to other international modeling centers such as the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting, home of the top-performing European model, and Environment Canada.

Within the National Weather Service, the outage could affect the performance of National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System (GFS), North American (NAM), and HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) models.

Chris Vaccaro, a spokesperson for the National Weather Service, said officials at NCEP told him these model forecasts can still be considered credible, despite the outage. “[T]here’s a lot of redundancy in the observing system that can help to offset the data loss and that the model guidance will have integrity and will be sound,” he said in an email.

A technical discussion from NCEP posted at 2:50 p.m. said the data loss was “significant”, but not so much to degrade forecasts.
Capital Weather Gang’s Steve Tracton, who worked with computer models over several decades at the National Weather Service, agreed the effects of the outage would be minimal in the short term, but could increase with time. “If satellite data are not returned within 24-36 hours, there is a chance of some forecast degradation though still likely small,” he said. “It will be interesting to assess after the fact.”

Another repercussion of the outage is that all or most of satellite imagery has stopped publishing to NOAA and National Weather Service Web sites; the “current” imagery is at least a day old. This imagery is used to track and analyze storms such as the Nor’easter affecting the East Coast and the tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico. At the time of publication of this blog post, NOAA and the National Weather Service had not posted messages on relevant Web sites alerting users that the imagery is now obsolete.

Although the National Weather Service is not receiving the latest imagery, NASA satellite imagery Web sites appear up-to-date, indicating this is a National Weather Service-specific problem.

This outage is the latest in a string of network and information technology problems to afflict the National Weather Service in the last two years. In late August, the National Weather Service Web site crashed due to a barrage of data requests from an external Android application. And in May, a firewall upgrade crippled the Weather Service’s warning dissemination system.

There were also previous Web site failures before that, as Slate’s Eric Holthaus summarized:

Previous technicalities weren’t quite as serious, such as an unbelievably large flood warning in mid-April (coincidentally, the day before the movie Noah was released), and a website crash in early April (though warning products continued to be issued as normal through more traditional channels).

Note that in 2013, I penned the piece: Weather Service systems crumbling as extreme weather escalates.

Link

If you want latest satellite imagery McIdas is still updating.

Here is a look at the Day/Night Visible of the Nor'Easter.



You can get animations at this Link.
Quoting 612. yoboi:

Was Wilma in 2005 the last major that made landfall in the USA??????

Yes
Quoting 657. nygiants:


SO , it is still possible...just wait and see game and WHATS GOING ON WITH THE GFS? WILL IT COME BACK WITH THE HURRICANE, OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW SOMETHING


Yeah... a weak low-level vortmax that gradually weakens.

Even if the shear decreases, it's going to be too little too late. Small circulations are extremely fragile. Even moreso when they're crossing land.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Looking at that satellite I would agree. There's almost nothing there. I think the much larger disturbance in the SE GOM has killed it. It could be why the GFS has dropped developing a system in the NW Caribbean. Complicated situation.
It's a remnant low as of 10:00 pm CDT. I think it was about 24 hours ago that the GFS had this storm roaring into Tampa as a cat2/3 hurricane on Tuesday. This really should be enough evidence for some people to just sit tight on storms and models until we see which of the likely alternatives really pan out - but I know it won't be. If the GFS (or any model, really) shows the low regenerating in the Caribbean and headed for Florida, the same hype will start all over again. I will then return to lurk mode and leave those that enjoy such things to their fun. Now, if any model shows it coming to Alabama, that might be different....:-)
Quoting 650. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

models were really not wrong it showed a stretched out system or two lows in the first place with a mostly heavy rain threat for that area in the short term

Oh, right. Actually, I was referring to the stuff that showed like a TS or hurricane striking Florida.

Quoting 662. sar2401:

This really should be enough evidence for some people to just sit tight on storms and models until we see which of the likely alternatives really pan out - but I know it won't be.
Those people that loudly parrot that stuff usually aren't here to learn. A lot of these people couldn't even beat the NAM or NAVGEM in tropical forecasting, let alone the better-performing models.

You know, kinda the goal of a forecaster.
Quoting 651. wunderkidcayman:

Wow
TD9 is now post tropical
It's still expected to enter the NW Caribbean but NHC thinks that shear and dry air would prevent redevelopment and sees total dissipation by 96hrs

I think this will not be the case but let's see what happens once it reaches the NW Caribbean

Looking at the intensity forecast models weakening was expected but with restrengthening by the time it reaches the NW Caribbean
Is not really a surprise.
Quoting nygiants:

SO , it is still possible...just wait and see game and WHATS GOING ON WITH THE GFS? WILL IT COME BACK WITH THE HURRICANE, OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW SOMETHING
It doesn't really matter what the GFS does. Just watch the actual development (or lack thereof) when ex-TD-09 enters the Caribbean. It will either merge with the existing areas of convection near the Gulf of Honduras and never be seen again or it may begin to redevelop as tropical low. In either case, the models will do an absolutely terrible job with this kind of weak, small system. Just use what you know about tropical weather synoptics (or ask if you need help) and ignore models for now.
Very cold cloud tops with remnant TD 9 and non-tropical low thingamagig.

Anyway guys see Later tonight or tomorrow morning check up to see post TD9 progress
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, another area of disturbed weather capable of some development may be a candidate for the next named storm (Vance):

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222339
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this weekend or early next
week. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development
of this system after that time while the low drifts generally
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

What the hell do you people think that blob is east of the Yucatan. When our low gets to the NW Carb it will pull that energy into it!!It want be the first ime somthing formed over the yucatan!!
Quoting 670. KoritheMan:

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, another area of disturbed weather capable of some development may be a candidate for the next named storm (Vance):

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222339
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this weekend or early next
week. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development
of this system after that time while the low drifts generally
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Looks to originate from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Hopefully it becomes the season's next potent hurricane as a final send off for this season.
I doubt the Yucatan will be final resting place of TD9, but that is just my take, I suspect we have not heard the last of TD 9 yet, though I hope we have!

Quoting 671. gulfbreeze:

What the hell do you people think that blob is east of the Yucatan.
A non-tropical low under strong upper-level shear.

Oh yeah, maybe a soggy couple of days for Cuba and Florida.
Quoting 670. KoritheMan:

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, another area of disturbed weather capable of some development may be a candidate for the next named storm (Vance):


See you stayed on, how are you doing tonight, Kori? How is the weather in your part of town?

Quoting 672. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks to originate from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Hopefully it becomes the season's next potent hurricane as a final send off for this season.
I dunno, Cody. I'm personally rooting for the slim possibility of Xavier so I can crack an X-Men joke in my blog.
Quoting 675. GTstormChaserCaleb:

See you stayed on
Yeah. Friends will do that. :)


Quoting 675. GTstormChaserCaleb:

how are you doing tonight, Kori?
I'm pretty well in general, actually. I've made some personal strides toward active change for the better in my life, including finally going after my GED and not taking things so damn seriously. Collectively, this has resulted in a much happier and upbeat me, a projection which is hopefully evident to others in my interactions.


Quoting 675. GTstormChaserCaleb:

How is the weather in your part of town?
Well there's clearly no tropical mischief. Another Juan (1985) would be nice, though, haha.
Sun DOOM!!!



The snowy side of Ex-Gonzalo.

Video 2. Ex-Gonzalo snowing it out..
Link

IR Satellite looking rainy...nice image
does it look like this was the last tropical system this season?
Quoting 663. 12george1:


Oh, right. Actually, I was referring to the stuff that showed like a TS or hurricane striking Florida.

all guidance only
forecasts must be based on actual current observations
entire area is perturb weather that poses heavy rain gusty wind event
over the entire northwest carb extreme se and western Bahamas regions


Quoting 678. KoritheMan:

Yeah. Friends will do that. :)


I'm pretty well in general, actually. I've made some personal strides toward active change for the better in my life, including finally going after my GED and not taking things so damn seriously. Collectively, this has resulted in a much happier and upbeat me, a projection which is hopefully evident to others in my interactions.


Well there's clearly no tropical mischief. Another Juan (1985) would be nice, though, haha.

Good ^_^ that is the way to live life man. Sometimes it just takes looking into that mirror to figure out who you are. Don't change to impress nobody. Just be yourself. Be Kori ;) Good luck to you on your GED.
Quoting MiamiHeat305:
does it look like this was the last tropical system this season?
Do you know what the Dow-Jones will close at tomorrow? Both questions are equally easy to answer.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Anyway guys see Later tonight or tomorrow morning check up to see post TD8 progress
Now it was downgraded to TD 08 as well as being a remnant low? That thing just can't get any respect. :-)

Quoting 684. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good ^_^ that is the way to live life man. Sometimes it just takes looking into that mirror to figure out who you are. Don't change to impress nobody. Just be yourself. Be Kori ;) Good luck to you on your GED.
It was a combination of REALLY (you know, not just feigning it like a lot of people do) taking a "You know what? I don't care if you don't like me" attitude, and a personal realization that I had to stop projecting my standards of excellence onto other people. After that, everything pretty much fell into place.

I'm still beating myself up over how long it took me to realize two simple things being as intelligent (hooray immodesty!) as I am. hahaha
Good luck going for your GED Kori.
Quoting 685. sar2401:

Do you know what the Dow-Jones will close at tomorrow? Both questions are equally easy to answer.
Up 301.25 points.
Quoting 676. KoritheMan:


I dunno, Cody. I'm personally rooting for the slim possibility of Xavier so I can crack an X-Men joke in my blog.

You better not be thinking of the same joke as me. That would mean Pheonix is still alive.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Those people that loudly parrot that stuff usually aren't here to learn. A lot of these people couldn't even beat the NAM or NAVGEM in tropical forecasting, let alone the better-performing models.

You know, kinda the goal of a forecaster.


It's good to see my prediction of a doom sort of situation not panning out has, unsurpisingly so far, panned out. Hey Kori. Good to see you stayed.
Quoting 680. Skyepony:

The snowy side of Ex-Gonzalo.

Video 2. Ex-Gonzalo snowing it out..


Interesting.... where's that at?
Quoting 682. MiamiHeat305:

does it look like this was the last tropical system this season?
Ask me that 12/31/14 and I will be able to tell you the answer.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Those people that loudly parrot that stuff usually aren't here to learn. A lot of these people couldn't even beat the NAM or NAVGEM in tropical forecasting, let alone the better-performing models.

You know, kinda the goal of a forecaster.
Yes, rather interesting. People who were taking up most of the blog last night and early this morning seem to be strangely absent tonight. Maybe they have to work, or Demon Rum has gotten to them again. I realize this is all because of the satellite data outage, and once that's fixed, the GFS will be restored to its former glory. Still, if I had been dead on sure that TD09 was going to develop into a hurricane just like the GFS showed in previous runs, I'd be here tonight trying to understand what went wrong....if I cared, of course. :-)
We've been getting pounded all day (from last night) in Long Beach NY from this Nor'Easter. We even had a 5 minute period of hail yesterday evening before dark..It has been quite a while since I've seen hail in these parts. We had a thunderstorm that came through last night around 3am that shook the house over and over again for over 2 hours. Went out this morning to walk the dog and saw multiple burnt trees (what trees where left after Hurricane Sandy and salt water deterioration) that looked to be the suspect of lightning strikes. We had about 2.75 inches of rain (judging by my rain gauge) between 3am and 6am and maybe another 1/2 to 1 inch since then. Local news station showed a map that had a swath of rain of over 8 inches directly south of us over the Atlantic. Glad that stayed south of us or I'd still be pumping water out of my basement. In a bit of a lull rain-wise now as it seems to low is just off to our south but the wind has picked up and gusting at a steady 30-35 kts out of the NE. We've got some nice swell coming through, and luckily since the wind is offshore, it is keeping the erosion at bay. Surfed earlier today and saw some 3-4 ft faces. Expecting 4-5ft faces, maybe bigger, tomorrow morning with hopefully no thunderstorms to worry about. Seems like this storm is picking up speed and strength and I'm expecting high rain rates and coastal erosion to the north. I hope no one loses power as it is not the warmest night in the past few months. Definitely one of the stronger coastal storms I've experienced in the past few years that was strictly a rain-producer.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Up 301.25 points.
I'll be buying the index futures in your name then. When may I expect your check? :-)
Quoting 678. KoritheMan:

Yeah. Friends will do that. :)


I'm pretty well in general, actually. I've made some personal strides toward active change for the better in my life, including finally going after my GED and not taking things so damn seriously. Collectively, this has resulted in a much happier and upbeat me, a projection which is hopefully evident to others in my interactions.


Well there's clearly no tropical mischief. Another Juan (1985) would be nice, though, haha.



Good luck kori! :)
Quoting 692. TimTheWxMan:



Interesting.... where's that at?

Pretty sure that's in Germany. Germany, France & the Alps were expecting snow with this. Switzerland was expecting a blizzard.
Quoting 685. sar2401:

Do you know what the Dow-Jones will close at tomorrow? Both questions are equally easy to answer.
No, this is not the last storm. The fluctuations of the market are the cherries falling off the tree as the giant tree shaker just grasps it. October 26th the ISX goes live with the new X Stream software. Bear or bull, you are about to witness the new tower of Babel.
Quoting 698. Skyepony:


Pretty sure that's in Germany. Germany, France & the Alps were expecting snow with this. Switzerland was expecting a blizzard.


Probably more wind than rain. These are warnings for Switzerland:

CH313Snow/IceDescription: Wind Violent storm (above 1800m), gusts 130-160 km/hCities Affected: N/ACH312Snow/IceDescription: Wind Violent storm (above 1800m), gusts 130-160 km/hCities Affected: N/ACH304Snow/IceDescription: Wind Violent storm (above 1800m), gusts 130-160 km/hCities Affected: N/A
Quoting Pallis1:
No, this is not the last storm. The fluctuations of the market are the cherries falling off the tree as the giant tree shaker just grasps it. October 26th the ISX goes live with the new X Stream software. Bear or bull, you are about to witness the new tower of Babel.
You mean the Iraq Stock Exchange? Yeah, they just have to hold out now until it becomes the ISISX...
Quoting 698. Skyepony:


Pretty sure that's in Germany. Germany, France & the Alps were expecting snow with this. Switzerland was expecting a blizzard.


Switzerland? Riiiiiicolaaaaa!
000
WTNT44 KNHC 230236
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.

Well. Glad that's over with.

Is it time to put a nail in the coffin of this hurricane season yet? (Can't believe it's already almost over)
705. JRRP
what is this?...

lol
Quoting 694. sar2401:

Yes, rather interesting. People who were taking up most of the blog last night and early this morning seem to be strangely absent tonight. Maybe they have to work, or Demon Rum has gotten to them again. I realize this is all because of the satellite data outage, and once that's fixed, the GFS will be restored to its former glory. Still, if I had been dead on sure that TD09 was going to develop into a hurricane just like the GFS showed in previous runs, I'd be here tonight trying to understand what went wrong....if I cared, of course. :-)
Amazing. Just last night, the GFS and other models were showing a major hurricane striking Florida in a week. Now tonight, even the tropical depression that was supposed to eventually lead to the super-cane next week has fizzled. And the atmosphere in this blog is almost funereal.

A few people are asking if maybe advanced life support procedures can be applied to the former TD 9 in order to get it regenerated and back on the track to legendary hurricane status but other, wiser blog members are quietly advising them that no, this is not feasible.

But just last night this place was hopping and the excitement in the air was palpable. Some were declaring that the long streak of Florida going without being hit by a major TC was over and that the state better get ready for the worst by Halloween! Others were chiming in to agree and were already anticipating the upcoming results of such an event. The wiser blog members were trying, in vain to keep things in check and asking, repeatedly for the wishcasters to tone it down but to no avail.

But now a quiet has settled over Dr. Masters' tropical weather blog that much resembles a loser's locker room some two hours after the end of the championship game. It almost seems as if someone unseen just beyond the last row of lockers just turned off the lights. How quickly things can change... How quickly indeed!
Taunton NWS Local Storm Report logging dozens of fallen trees/downed wires. Far too numerous to post.
Quoting FLWaterFront:
Amazing. Just last night, the GFS and other models were showing a major hurricane striking Florida in a week. Now tonight, even the tropical depression that was supposed to eventually lead to the super-cane next week has fizzled. And the atmosphere in this blog is almost funereal.

A few people are asking if maybe advanced life support procedures can be applied to the former TD 9 in order to get it regenerated and back on the track to legendary hurricane status but other, wiser blog members are quietly advising them that no, this is not feasible.

But just last night this place was hopping and the excitement in the air was palpable. Some were declaring that the long streak of Florida going without being hit by a major TC was over and that the state better get ready for the worst by Halloween! Others were chiming in to agree and were already anticipating the upcoming results of such an event. The wiser blog members were trying, in vain to keep things in check and asking, repeatedly for the wishcasters to tone it down but to no avail.

But now a quiet has settled over Dr. Masters' tropical weather blog that much resembles a loser's locker room some two hours after the end of the championship game. It almost seems as if someone unseen just beyond the last row of lockers just turned off the lights. How quickly things can change... How quickly indeed!


There is still a chance of remnant low doing something, but highly unlikely. Who knows.
Quoting 706. FLWaterFront:

Amazing. Just last night, the GFS and other models were showing a major hurricane striking Florida in a week. Now tonight, even the tropical depression that was supposed to eventually lead to the super-cane next week has fizzled. And the atmosphere in this blog is almost funereal.

A few people are asking if maybe advanced life support procedures can be applied to the former TD 9 in order to get it regenerated and back on the track to legendary hurricane status but other, wiser blog members are quietly advising them that no, this is not feasible.

But just last night this place was hopping and the excitement in the air was palpable. Some were declaring that the long streak of Florida going without being hit by a major TC was over and that the state better get ready for the worst by Halloween! Others were chiming in to agree and were already anticipating the upcoming results of such an event. The wiser blog members were trying, in vain to keep things in check and asking, repeatedly for the wishcasters to tone it down but to no avail.

But now a quiet has settled over Dr. Masters' tropical weather blog that much resembles a loser's locker room some two hours after the end of the championship game. It almost seems as if someone unseen just beyond the last row of lockers just turned off the lights. How quickly things can change... How quickly indeed!


Yeah, there is quite a list of hypecasters in here, but the few that have weather knowledge or at least (learn from knowing not go past 3-4 days in models) have common sense understand that you need run to run consistency with the GFS and EURO.
Quoting JRRP:
what is this?...

lol
It's probably this -

711. JRRP
Quoting sar2401:
It's probably this -


in the Caribbean

Quoting FLWaterFront:
Amazing. Just last night, the GFS and other models were showing a major hurricane striking Florida in a week. Now tonight, even the tropical depression that was supposed to eventually lead to the super-cane next week has fizzled. And the atmosphere in this blog is almost funereal.

A few people are asking if maybe advanced life support procedures can be applied to the former TD 9 in order to get it regenerated and back on the track to legendary hurricane status but other, wiser blog members are quietly advising them that no, this is not feasible.

But just last night this place was hopping and the excitement in the air was palpable. Some were declaring that the long streak of Florida going without being hit by a major TC was over and that the state better get ready for the worst by Halloween! Others were chiming in to agree and were already anticipating the upcoming results of such an event. The wiser blog members were trying, in vain to keep things in check and asking, repeatedly for the wishcasters to tone it down but to no avail.

But now a quiet has settled over Dr. Masters' tropical weather blog that much resembles a loser's locker room some two hours after the end of the championship game. It almost seems as if someone unseen just beyond the last row of lockers just turned off the lights. How quickly things can change... How quickly indeed!
LOL. That's a pretty good description of how the blog can change based solely on some changes in fantasy plots. I'd caution, however, that even though ex-TD09 hasn't followed the path outlined by the GFS of 24 hours ago, that doesn't mean it's dead and buried. Climatology and past performance do play a part in modeling, and the location of TD09 was favorable for a spinup into a tropical storm. What the GFS seems to have missed was the STJ was so strong in the Gulf that there was no way for the low to continue on a straight east course, making a crossing of the Yucatan inevitable. Because the low was so small and weak, not to mention the much larger area of convection to the east stealing energy from TD09, it was also inevitable that the chances of it intensifying before landfall were small. Now, the chance of it regenerating in the Caribbean are also small, but not zero. The troughs coming down from the north and building ridges behind them will keep pressures in the Gulf and northern Caribbean lower, and may help relax the shear by next week at this time. If all that can happen while another area of disturbed weather develops, we may be off to the races for real.

However, you'll notice a lot of qualifiers in my guesses, and it's not going to be easy to have a storm develop under anything near the present conditions. If people would just watch the present conditions and 48 hour forecast of synoptic conditions, they'll learn a lot more than what some half-crazed model is telling them. Once we have any kind of decent TS form, then it's time to look to the models, which have done a remarkably good job of dealing with track on developing systems this season.
Quoting JRRP:

in the Caribbean

OH...too many dots there. Who knows? Where was it and what was it before it showed up at 150 hours? Why is it stringer than what's shown on the 168 hour? Without some more verification, it's just one more ghost low to add the legion that the GFS has created this season.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Taunton NWS Local Storm Report logging dozens of fallen trees/downed wires. Far too numerous to post.
The Northeast seems to have gotten all the almost tropical storms this year while we in the south have gotten almost nothing. I don't know what to think of this, but almost anything that shows up there is stronger than forecast while anything here is weaker than forecast. Maybe it has something to to with our "Not but almost an El Nino" that seems to lie around every corner. Maybe it's just bad luck but, as long as we don't see another Sandy type storm, you'll do OK.
Hwrf on ex TD 9. Keep an eye on the NW Caribbean.

Good to see you again Sar. TD9 has nothing but unknowns at this point. It may not survive or it may become a meandering player which heads heads to the Bahamas and then up the Eastern Seaboard as a beast of a storm. I think the long term is what's really in question and what this does if it survives long term; week out. Weak building TS by early next week is likely probably 70/30 at this point. Mid week if TD9 survives is where the real questions come into play. Models have no real grasp on this at this point.
Quoting 715. StormTrackerScott:

Hwrf on ex TD 9. Keep an eye on the NW Caribbean.




Scott.............. Stop!
Quoting 715. StormTrackerScott:

Hwrf on ex TD 9. Keep an eye on the NW Caribbean.




Scott, thats better looking than anything in the gulf since Gustav. the chances of that happening on october 28 with the tattered remnants of a TD are next to nothing
There will be a low, but lacking moisture to really get going. Until the Euro and GFS agree showing a TS in 3 days, then we can jump on to the intensity models. Right now the chance of this being a hurricane in 5 days is about 10%
Quoting 718. nwobilderburg:



Scott, thats better looking than anything in the gulf since Gustav. the chances of that happening on october 28 with the tattered remnants of a TD are next to nothing


woops, i meant to say in the NW Carribean.
721. 882MB
I'm exhausted goodnight, and my thoughts are keep an eye on P50L, models keep agreeing and having more attention to this wave, I know MDR is over, but that don't mean we can get surprises, in the eastern Caribbean, this late in the season. Throughout the whole week I have been monitoring this wave, with 1 model support, and now I see more consensus, just a look out, goodnight. By the way our SSD are back, now more accuracy and it will help our models. Night night ;)
Quoting 715. StormTrackerScott:

Hwrf on ex TD 9. Keep an eye on the NW Caribbean.




Scott I read the blog everyday and see a lot of insults come your way ..just am tippin a cold one in your favor my friend..
Quoting 680. Skyepony:

The snowy side of Ex-Gonzalo.

Video 2. Ex-Gonzalo snowing it out..


Indeed (btw, because somebody asked, the above video was taken in Gschwend on Alpsee in Southern Bavaria):

Snow causes chaos in western Austria
The Local (Austria), Published: 23 Oct 2014 10:23 GMT 02:00
Winter has come early to western Austria, leaving hundreds of homes without electricity on Wednesday night. Snow and rainfall also caused numerous problems on roads, and is expected to continue until Thursday evening.
The Tauern tunnel had to be closed in the direction of Salzburg because of a fallen tree. It's unclear how long it will take emergency services to reopen the road. Fallen trees caused power outages in the Tyrolean regions of Brandenberg, Hochfilzen, Zillertall in Zell and Gerlostal. The Arlberg railway line had to be closed between Wald am Arlberg and Dalaas. Delays and cancellations are expected on the train service between Tyrol and Vorarlberg until noon. A rail replacement bus service has been set up. Experts are also warning of an increased danger of avalanches in Tyrol. ...

Whole article see link above.

Enjoy the panoramic panomax cams, mostly in the Alps:
http://www.panomax.at/index.html


Current snow hights. Source ZAMG.

Have a nice morning everybody. The giant sunspot AR2192 has been quiet the last hours, but the chance of very strong flares is still there.


Quoting stormpetrol:
I doubt the Yucatan will be final resting place of TD9, but that is just my take, I suspect we have not heard the last of TD 9 yet, though I hope we have!

Agreed
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 48 degrees out here by the lake and 56 on Post in west central Louisiana. It's going to be a beautiful day in the 70's today, not that I'll get to enjoy any of it from inside my classroom though. : (

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, cranberry coffee cake, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), broccoli & cheddar omelet, Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
I am more interested in the low that enters the Carib just south of PR.
Quoting 726. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 48 degrees out here by the lake and 56 on Post in west central Louisiana. It's going to be a beautiful day in the 70's today, not that I'll get to enjoy any of it from inside my classroom though. : (

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, cranberry coffee cake, Apple pie bites (apple slice wrapped in a croissant), broccoli & cheddar omelet, Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Thank you, Scrumptious and a culinary delight I look forward to everyday!

Quoting 725. CycloneOz:

Climate change PROVED to be 'nothing but a lie', claims top meteorologist

John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible.

Instead, what 'little evidence' there is for rising global temperatures points to a 'natural phenomenon' within a developing eco-system.

In an open letter attacking the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he wrote: "The ocean is not rising significantly.

"The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number.

"Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing).

"I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid."
Uh... I'd probably trust a climatologist over a meteorologist when it pertains to AGW discourse, Brian. Just saying.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening. Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the
maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum
pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast. The
system has not produced a significant area of organized deep
convection since late this morning and it is therefore being
declared a remnant low at this time. The low is expected to weaken
during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula. If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.
The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and
call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during
the next few days. The updated NHC track has been shifted a little
left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and
the multi-model consensus.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to this system.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.9N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
731. MahFL
Shear is becoming favorable east of the Yucatan.




Quoting 731. MahFL:

Shear is becoming favorable east of the Yucatan.




There's still 20 kt of solid northwesterlies. That's not favorable.
733. MahFL
Steering would be a drift north ?



734. MahFL
Quoting 732. KoritheMan:


There's still 20 kt of solid northwesterlies. That's not favorable.



Some areas of blue though, which is only 15.
735. MahFL
Hey you got to wishcast !

Quoting 735. MahFL:

Hey you got to wishcast !
lol, believe me dude... nobody wants a strong hurricane here more than me. Gotta have a reason for it, though!
PostTD9 is on or just past E of 90W

By the looks of it
It may be off the Yucatan/Belize coast or atleast near it by late tonight or very early tomorrow morning

It appears that the LLC seems to still be intact and vort maxes from low to mid levels are still decent

It may be so when it comes off the coast we may still have a decent LLC or atleast a half decent one

With shear still falling in the NW Carib plus hot waters there is still a possibility that it may redevelop

Dry air is another factor depending on how far down the dry air come and the amount would also determine the possibility

I do not think dry air will come that far S nor it being that dry to prevent redevelopment however it could prevent how quick it could redevelop and strengthen

Overall It is heading toward a low shear moist air hot water environment depending on what pops out into the NW Carib Sea late tonight or early tomorrow we may see redevelopment

Also lastly if it can get back out in the NW Carib and build the convection build that moisture field it's got a better chance to develop is less dryer air
Quoting 725. CycloneOz:

Climate change PROVED to be 'nothing but a lie', claims top meteorologist

John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible.

Instead, what 'little evidence' there is for rising global temperatures points to a 'natural phenomenon' within a developing eco-system.

In an open letter attacking the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he wrote: "The ocean is not rising significantly.

"The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number.

"Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing).

"I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid."


Well, Coleman may dazzle the contrarian crowd, but most thinking people know he has no academic credentials in either climatology, meteorology, or any of the earth sciences, having earned only a journalism degree. He's never conducted actual climate research; he's never written a peer-reviewed article; he's never been published; and he quit the only scientific organization to which he ever belonged--the American Meteorological Society--because he disagrees with that organization's stance on climate change.

There are a very large number of highly educated and respected men and women--thousands of them, in fact--who actually work in the fast changing field of climate science, and nearly every one of them has been convinced by the overwhelming evidence that our incessant burning of fossil fuels is rapidly altering the atmosphere. 'Twould be far wiser to listen to them than some retired TV weatherman, don't you think?
watching nine aint much going to happen today as it slugs the wrong way across the yucatan. as for gw? a widespread disease could do more to reverse gw than any other worldly response.
Quoting KoritheMan:

There's still 20 kt of solid northwesterlies. That's not favorable.

You do realise that the blues are 10kts right

Overall it's 10-20kts and decreasing

So by later tonight should be favorable enough

The upper level anticyclone is now centered near 90W near NE of Guatemala SW Belize
Quoting MahFL:
Steering would be a drift north ?




It's kinda "slugish"
I'd say E-ESE as its doing now untill it gets into the NW Carib then NE
Some how Key West only picked up .35" on Monday,.78" on Tuesday, and 1.06" on Wednesday.
So 2.19" for a three day total. I expected a lot more than that with those heavy showers in their area.

Big news in my neighborhood was a freak shower late yesterday afternoon. I picked up .82" in my weather station.

Offical numbers for Fort Myers only 1.24" for October. (14" behind normal for the year).




The scenario is playing out as modeled a couple of days ago. The piece of energy would be left behind in the NW Carib. I agree looks like it will take another 24 for whatever is left to cross land. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 24-48. Climatology alone would seem to favor development. Shear and dry air may inhibit. Too soon to tell.

It was always my opinion that this would not be quick to develop. Which was also a concern for me. If it developed quickly, IMO, it was more likely to get pulled northeastward before it ever had the opportunity to significantly intensify. Now there is an opportunity for something to slowly and steadily develop.

For now wait and see for me. For me, the models mean very little right now.

Quoting 737. wunderkidcayman:

PostTD9 is on or just past E of 90W

By the looks of it
It may be off the Yucatan/Belize coast or atleast near it by late tonight or very early tomorrow morning

It appears that the LLC seems to still be intact and vort maxes from low to mid levels are still decent

It may be so when it comes off the coast we may still have a decent LLC or atleast a half decent one

With shear still falling in the NW Carib plus hot waters there is still a possibility that it may redevelop

Dry air is another factor depending on how far down the dry air come and the amount would also determine the possibility

I do not think dry air will come that far S nor it being that dry to prevent redevelopment however it could prevent how quick it could redevelop and strengthen

Overall It is heading toward a low shear moist air hot water environment depending on what pops out into the NW Carib Sea late tonight or early tomorrow we may see redevelopment

Also lastly if it can get back out in the NW Carib and build the convection build that moisture field it's got a better chance to develop is less dryer air
Morning all. Looks like name or no name central Cuba and the Bahamas will get soaked today. It's been dripping all night and I expect it'll start raining harder this afternoon.

Enjoy your day!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

You do realise that the blues are 10kts right

Overall it's 10-20kts and decreasing

So by later tonight should be favorable enough

The upper level anticyclone is now centered near 90W near NE of Guatemala SW Belize


SHIPS is saying 21 knot shear with 49% RH in a few days. That's very unfavorable if you ask me. 09L will not regenerate.
The dome has been breached!

Quoting 742. Sfloridacat5:

Some how Key West only picked up .35" on Monday,.78" on Tuesday, and 1.06" on Wednesday.
So 2.19" for a three day total. I expected a lot more than that with those heavy showers in their area.

Big news in my neighborhood was a freak shower late yesterday afternoon. I picked up .82" in my weather station.

Offical numbers for Fort Myers only 1.24" for October. (14" behind normal for the year).





Quoting 743. HaoleboySurfEC:

The scenario is playing out as modeled a couple of days ago. The piece of energy would be left behind in the NW Carib. I agree looks like it will take another 24 for whatever is left to cross land. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 24-48. Climatology alone would seem to favor development. Shear and dry air may inhibit. Too soon to tell.

It was always my opinion that this would not be quick to develop. Which was also a concern for me. If it developed quickly, IMO, it was more likely to get pulled northeastward before it ever had the opportunity to significantly intensify. Now there is an opportunity for something to slowly and steadily develop.

For now wait and see for me. For me, the models mean very little right now.


Agree with a lot of this. This scenario is a lot more likely to lead to a significant tc than the one with a storm crossing the GOM. While chances are low, I do think that regeneration is possible. In fact I am watching to see if the llc survives the crossing intact.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

While we can't totally rule out a mid-latitude tropical/sub-tropical development in the next month or so, I think in all likelihood, with the MJO pulse that gave us all this late season activity moving out, we should not expect Atlantic tropical cyclone formation until the start of the 2015 season.
Good Morning
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

While we can't totally rule out a mid-latitude tropical/sub-tropical development in the next month or so, I think in all likelihood, with the MJO pulse that gave us all this late season activity moving out, we should not expect Atlantic tropical cyclone formation until the start of the 2015 season.


If so, I'm satisfied with this season. We got to track two long lived major hurricanes, one of which was the most intense since Igor in 2010, neither of which did too much damage. That's really all I wanted out of this season going into it.
Oct .23, 2014 5:16 am ET
Northeast |
- The Nor'easter churns along the southeast New England coast today and chugs toward the Canadian Maritimes later tonight and Friday.
- A soaking rain covers eastern New York and New England with lighter rain and showers in western New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey today.
- Tonight the rain tapers off in all locations except northern New York and northern New England where it remains all night.
- Lingering showers continue in northern New York and northern New England Friday.
- Northeast winds of 15 to 35 mph with gusts over 45 mph are likely along the northern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine coasts.
- Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion are possible due to those strong winds.
- Gusty northwest winds are likely from the coasts of Rhode Island and Connecticut south to eastern Virginia.
- These winds will be offshore so no beach flooding is expected.
- However, some minor over wash from back bays could occur on western shores of any barrier islands.
- Conditions improve in all areas Friday as the storm moves away.
- High temperatures Thursday will be in the 50s north and upper 50s and 60s south.



good news!!! no more tropical storm or hurricanes!!
Quoting 750. CybrTeddy:



If so, I'm satisfied with this season. We got to track two long lived major hurricanes, one of which was the most intense since Igor in 2010, neither of which did too much damage. That's really all I wanted out of this season going into it.




NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
I'm also giving it a low chance at regeneration, but enough to keep an eye on. I think we may get some indication later today as it again approaches water. Maybe we'll see some convection fire up as it nears the coast.

Quoting 747. BahaHurican:

Agree with a lot of this. This scenario is a lot more likely to lead to a significant tc than the one with a storm crossing the GOM. While chances are low, I do think that regeneration is possible. In fact I am watching to see if the llc survives the crossing intact.
Quoting 715. StormTrackerScott:

Hwrf on ex TD 9. Keep an eye on the NW Caribbean.




*rolls eyes*

756. IKE

Quoting hurricanes2018:



good news!!! no more tropical storm or hurricanes!!
And that may be the end of it. Did it ever start in the northern GOM?
no one knows what is going to happen to td 9. i think it will survive. it has a broad scope notice the turning far up into gulf and yesterday the circulation looked vibrant. as for ships three days from now it cant be trusted. tropical circulations are somewhat similiar to cancer going to be hard to knock off
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
The scenario is playing out as modeled a couple of days ago. The piece of energy would be left behind in the NW Carib. I agree looks like it will take another 24 for whatever is left to cross land. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 24-48. Climatology alone would seem to favor development. Shear and dry air may inhibit. Too soon to tell.

It was always my opinion that this would not be quick to develop. Which was also a concern for me. If it developed quickly, IMO, it was more likely to get pulled northeastward before it ever had the opportunity to significantly intensify. Now there is an opportunity for something to slowly and steadily develop.

For now wait and see for me. For me, the models mean very little right now.



Agreed

Quoting CybrTeddy:


SHIPS is saying 21 knot shear with 49% RH in a few days. That's very unfavorable if you ask me. 09L will not regenerate.


Hmm and yet SHIP shows system strengthing

Quoting 756. IKE:


And that may be the end of it. Did it ever start in the northern GOM?



Great to see the legendary Storm Whisperer on here this AM.
We've missed you Ike.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Agreed



Hmm and yet SHIP shows system strengthing



Does not.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 26 29 33 36 36 37 35 34 32
V (KT) LAND 25 23 25 25 26 30 33 37 37 38 36 35 33
V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 24 25 26 30 32 35 37 38 37 35 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
GEOS-5 model statues is normal which isn't surprising with NASA's satellite data normal. It has been pretty persistent about a Tropical Storm for The Keys & South Florida on Friday. Turns that wave around 40W into a hurricane next week too.
Quoting IKE:

And that may be the end of it. Did it ever start in the northern GOM?


"IKE"

Now that's a name I've not heard in a long time..
Doesn't matter SHIPS gets it wrong sometimes

Anyway let's wait and see what happens
Quoting Skyepony:
GEOS-5 model statues is normal which isn't surprising with NASA's satellite data normal. It has been pretty persistent about a Tropical Storm for The Keys & South Florida on Friday. Turns that wave around 40W into a hurricane next week too.


Link please
Quoting IKE:

And that may be the end of it. Did it ever start in the northern GOM?

Where the hell have you been
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Where the hell have you been

We've missed you
From CWG

Another cloudy and cool day.
...Depression moves inland and becomes a remnant low...

Quoting 725. CycloneOz:

Climate change PROVED to be 'nothing but a lie', claims top meteorologist

John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible.

Instead, what 'little evidence' there is for rising global temperatures points to a 'natural phenomenon' within a developing eco-system.

In an open letter attacking the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he wrote: "The ocean is not rising significantly.

"The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number.

"Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing).

"I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid."


Your source is bad. It begs the question why you would believe a guy with no scientific background, but ignore the actual scientists. Priorities, man.

Quoting 756. IKE:


And that may be the end of it. Did it ever start in the northern GOM?

There was Cristobal. Oh wait.
There's always the GEM for people who refuse to give up.
It brings a system from the eastern Caribbean into South Florida at 240 hours.

The odds are probably equal to winning the lottery. But unless you play you can't win.
So I wonder if the Cayman NWS is still saying that watches and warnings could be issued this weekend? LOL
It's a great day in the Treasure Coast of Florida. Today's high should be 79 and it's dry.

I am ready to close the door on this year's Hurricane season.

2014 was indeed a weird season.
No sun yet here in WPB and the Rain has been off and on all night
Quoting 776. rmbjoe1954:

It's a great day in the Treasure Coast of Florida. Today's high should be 79 and it's dry.

I am ready to close the door on this year's Hurricane season.

2014 was indeed a weird season.
Quoting luvtogolf:
So I wonder if the Cayman NWS is still saying that watches and warnings could be issued this weekend? LOL


Your not funny

No they did not
However funny enough Cayman27 news this morning said it needs to be watched and they did mentioned the possibility of watches and warning lol I guess they didn't get the memo lol lol

However yes the Cayman NWS Still has Small craft warning up for this late weekend
I still do think we should still keep eyes on the post TD9 as it enters the NW Carib

Wait and see
I just went to the NHC site and it shows NO activity.  So what happened to TD9? 
781. MahFL
TD9 remanent low is still quite healthy.






heavy rain moving out of the state
Quoting 729. KoritheMan:

Uh... I'd probably trust a climatologist over a meteorologist when it pertains to AGW discourse, Brian. Just saying.



The guys isn't even a meteorologist. He has no degree in anything besides journalism. Zero credibility. Zero credentials. Zero published research on any topic.

And, of course, zero actual analysis to show where scientists "have it wrong". Just more empty blather from an uneducated idiot. You can find that anywhere on the internet.
06z GFS still predicts some heavy rain for the Keys through Friday.
This weekend going into the first half of next week looks good for pretty much all of Florida.

.
Quoting 783. CycloneOz:



Instead of deconstructing John Coleman, why not spend your precious keyboard strokes on praising Al Goooore?
Because praising someone who is not a climate scientist is just as relevant as praising someone else who isn't a climate scientist. Coleman and Gore are both blowhards. Nea is correctly saying that Coleman's opinion is not from a scientific origin, rather its political. He didn't even mention Gore - you did.
Quoting 725. CycloneOz:

Climate change PROVED to be 'nothing but a lie', claims top meteorologist

John Coleman, who co-founded the Weather Channel, shocked academics by insisting the theory of man-made climate change was no longer scientifically credible.

Instead, what 'little evidence' there is for rising global temperatures points to a 'natural phenomenon' within a developing eco-system.

In an open letter attacking the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he wrote: "The ocean is not rising significantly.

"The polar ice is increasing, not melting away. Polar Bears are increasing in number.

"Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing).

"I have studied this topic seriously for years. It has become a political and environment agenda item, but the science is not valid."


Posting of a "crackpot" article such as this is actually evidence against your position, and hurts your credibility. The first two indicators that something is wrong with this article are in the wording of the title. Then it gets worse. Probably I'll go into more detail upon request from you. I suppose that your post could be effective for readers who accept any article that supports that view, regardless of how poor and unscientific it is.
790. IKE
I follow the tropics. Just haven't been posting this year. Hello to all.
Quoting 780. JoeBarnickel:

I just went to the NHC site and it shows NO activity.  So what happened to TD9? 


It died and is not expected to regenerate.
Quoting 762. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 model statues is normal which isn't surprising with NASA's satellite data normal. It has been pretty persistent about a Tropical Storm for The Keys & South Florida on Friday. Turns that wave around 40W into a hurricane next week too.



I've seen things pop up with no model support, but that's pretty rare. It'd be quite surprised if it even became an invest.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Doesn't matter SHIPS gets it wrong sometimes

Anyway let's wait and see what happens


It very much matters if all the reliable intensity and global models are showing no development from 09L.
Goodmorning,its a cool crisp 52 degrees in Mobile. Lets take a vote..... The posting of GFS ghost storms should be material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.
Here's a link to some storm totals across MA, RI, and southern NH from this ongoing powerful early season Nor'easter. Highest amount currently on the list, which will go up, is 5.04" of rain. Good news is that winds have come down somewhat and power is gradually being restored, still a few thousand outages but it's improving.

Link
Quoting 794. scott39:

Goodmorning,its a cool crisp 52 degrees in Mobile today. Lets take a vote..... The posting of GFS ghost storms should be material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.


It's funny how the hypesters were posting the GFS yesterday and saying that it was a dangerous situation for Florida and today nowhere to be found. I guess we are not a "joke" for being reasonable.
i still see the spin from ex-T.D 9
Quoting 706. FLWaterFront:

Amazing. Just last night, the GFS and other models were showing a major hurricane striking Florida in a week. Now tonight, even the tropical depression that was supposed to eventually lead to the super-cane next week has fizzled. And the atmosphere in this blog is almost funereal.

A few people are asking if maybe advanced life support procedures can be applied to the former TD 9 in order to get it regenerated and back on the track to legendary hurricane status but other, wiser blog members are quietly advising them that no, this is not feasible.

But just last night this place was hopping and the excitement in the air was palpable. Some were declaring that the long streak of Florida going without being hit by a major TC was over and that the state better get ready for the worst by Halloween! Others were chiming in to agree and were already anticipating the upcoming results of such an event. The wiser blog members were trying, in vain to keep things in check and asking, repeatedly for the wishcasters to tone it down but to no avail.

But now a quiet has settled over Dr. Masters' tropical weather blog that much resembles a loser's locker room some two hours after the end of the championship game. It almost seems as if someone unseen just beyond the last row of lockers just turned off the lights. How quickly things can change... How quickly indeed!


Bravo ! The wishcasters who I swear many of them must be sociopaths, with their love of death & destruction, are really hurt puppies this morning. Too bad you won't get your wishes of seeing people's lives torn to shreds, homes and memories destroyed for your sick pleasure.

I survived Hurricane Andrew, just barely, and lost every shred of physical memory of my late wife (she passed Jan 6th, 1991) and our marital home was completely gutted. Trust me those wishing for this kind of harm to come to people are just complete wackos. You have no idea what you are wishing for.
Quoting 773. Sfloridacat5:

There's always the GEM for people who refuse to give up.
It brings a system from the eastern Caribbean into South Florida at 240 hours.

The odds are probably equal to winning the lottery. But unless you play you can't win.



Actually there is some model support to the GEM solution of an Eastern Caribbean system. The GFS and GEM have a sistem near PR in 5 days and the EURO also has a strong wave. Very similar solutions to what the GFS did 5 days prior Gonzalo.
Quoting 776. rmbjoe1954:

It's a great day in the Treasure Coast of Florida. Today's high should be 79 and it's dry.

I am ready to close the door on this year's Hurricane season.

2014 was indeed a weird season.


If you close the door on this season, a latecomer may break it down.

We cannot predict what will happen in November and early December but statistically this period has activity and can't be discounted.

I'm safer sitting smugly in the DC metro area since there is an increasing number of isotherms between us and the tropics and it's likely any TC would get caught in the resultant westerlies and swept out to our east.

On a side note I remember visiting Fort Myers where my parents lived while I was in College at Penn State, for Christmas break and reminding my friends back home how many thickness lines there were between me and them. Yeah kind of mean.

But climatologically I just prefer four well defined seasons. We could do to shave a few degrees off the summers in DC metro and I'd also like to see more snow (I'll get back to y'all in late Feb about that sentiment) .. but.. oh well.
Quoting 790. IKE:

I follow the tropics. Just haven't been posting this year. Hello to all.



Hey, Ike ... your old friend to the south here.
Oops..nice try. looks like your comment was not relevant :-)
Quoting 794. scott39:


oops, looks like your comment was irrelevant
Goodmorning,its a cool crisp 52 degrees in Mobile today. Lets take a vote..... The posting of GFS ghost storms should be material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.
It's funny how the hypesters were posting the GFS yesterday and saying that it was a dangerous situation for Florida and today nowhere to be found. I guess we are not a "joke" for being reasonable.


what luv...no cat 5 striking the center of florida?>........there's no way these gods of forecasting could be wrong....the models must have bad data
Quoting 794. scott39:

Goodmorning,its a cool crisp 52 degrees in Mobile. Lets take a vote..... The posting of GFS ghost storms should be material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather.


i vote yes too that the season is done


ITS WORKING AGAIN!! nice storm off the east coast
Are they going to do an update on the GFS?
61.2F in NOLA,

Gaw-jus'
Quoting 796. luvtogolf:



It's funny how the hypesters were posting the GFS yesterday and saying that it was a dangerous situation for Florida and today nowhere to be found. I guess we are not a "joke" for being reasonable.


the same blog you seem to do nothing but attack posters is authored by Dr. Masters who stated what you and your other "comrades" have an issue with..you might want to read the blog listed at the top of the page..and if you called every single post of you doing nothing but attacking posters and not providing one single comment of weather discussion then lord help us all if that is what is considered reasonable..

go play golf or something or better yet do some school work..
Quoting 803. ricderr:

It's funny how the hypesters were posting the GFS yesterday and saying that it was a dangerous situation for Florida and today nowhere to be found. I guess we are not a "joke" for being reasonable.


what luv...no cat 5 striking the center of florida?>........there's no way these gods of forecasting could be wrong....the models must have bad data


I'll hype with the best of them when the models show a developed storm threatening my area within 3-4 days. Other than that it is fantasyland.
Quoting 803. ricderr:
It's funny how the hypesters were posting the GFS yesterday and saying that it was a dangerous situation for Florida and today nowhere to be found. I guess we are not a "joke" for being reasonable.


what luv...no cat 5 striking the center of florida?>........there's no way these gods of forecasting could be wrong....the models must have bad data


The Crow must be served!
Quoting 808. ncstorm:



the same blog you seem to do nothing but attack posters is authored by Dr. Masters who stated what you and your other "comrades" have an issue with..you might want to read the blog listed at the top of the page..and if you called every single post of you doing nothing but attacking posters and not providing one single comment of weather discussion then lord help us all if that is what is considered reasonable..

go play golf or something or better yet do some school work..


Having a bad day today:)
The PCM Model continues to show development...
there's a huge difference in the post provided by the good doc...and some who comment on this blog....if you can't see that difference...then that's fine..but most of us can


The Crow must be served!


and some keep the crow restaurant running at capacity........here's today's serving for the deserving.....

Quoting 806. gulfbreeze:

Are they going to do an update on the GFS?



i here they are going too to do it in DEC they where going to do the upgrade to the GFS in Nov but it got push back to DEC or may be its in NOV or i got the moths mixed up
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Disastrous: Left Behind
By: Portlight , 12:02 PM CDT on October 22, 2014



Disastrous: Left Behind - Coming to a Location Near You!

We’ll soon begin the touring phase of our photo documentary project, “Disastrous: Left Behind.” This collection of photographs illustrates the failures of non-inclusive emergency planning, and the often devastating aftermath for our community. Our goal is to take the exhibit on a nationwide tour of city and town halls, public libraries, medical/hospital complexes, and other appropriate public art/display spaces. Follow the exhibit page on Facebook for announcements about the launch event, and for new venues as we add them to the tour schedule. Please “Share” with your friends and family, too!

Hampton Roads Getting It Right Conference

We are excited to announce that Portlight Strategies will host a Getting It Right Conference in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia. We will announce the dates of the conference soon! Expect late winter of 2015.

Barometer Bob

In August, we launched a fundraising effort for a good friend of the weather community, Bob Brookens, aka Barometer Bob. Over the last year or so, Bob has been diagnosed with several autoimmune disorders, and their rapid progression left him in need of a power wheelchair and vehicle lift for better mobility outside his home. We’re happy to report that over the last several weeks, we were able to raise the necessary funds to purchase a gently used chair and lift for Bob, from someone in the same area where he lives. Bob’s family will be picking up this equipment for him in the next week or so, and helping to install the lift.

Once again, your kindness and generosity have helped to provide mobility and independence to a friend in need.Bob expressed his gratitude on Facebook, saying, “Thank you, Portlight Strategies…and to all that donated to the fundraiser to help my wife and me.”

As always, we thank you for your continued support of our work!!
now...let me be the first to say.....although most models have dropped td9...you have moisture entering the carribean....i'd personally...keep a watch there for a day or two...might be futile...and i'd never give a definite statement of certainty....but...albeit small....there's a chance of regeneration....my guess....seeing i haven't looked at shear forecasts yet this morning...but i would think when i do look at them....shear will be a factor
Quoting 811. luvtogolf:



Having a bad day today:)


no just took a break from work and all I see is just ridiculing especially from you....its childish..

I never even see you post anything weather related..heck I wouldn't even mind you posting pictures from a golf course in "Florida" from your area but you don't even do that..you just constantly either going at Scott or WKC..what has these particular posters wrong you on as you can't seem to let it go?

just give it a rest please..
Ok got a decent visible look at postTD9 and the LLC Is still going strong
And it has some convection(weak at this time) in and around the LLC

If this continues the system should survive its track right into the Caribbean

With shear in the NW Carib at 10-15kts with 20kts here and there and hot hot waters thing might get interesting during the next day or two

But the dry air might still pose a problem

Keep eyes on that
Models are saying the mid Atlantic/New England will deal with another nor'easter by Halloween.
Quoting 821. weatherbro:

Models are saying the mid Atlantic/New England will deal with another nor'easter by Halloween.
i hope the model are right
I'd put the odds of 09L ultimately regenerating at 30%, and even that might be too generous. Far greater chance it doesn't.
Morning all... Wow... Ike was in here and it missed that! [Waves at Ike]. Good to see you, great one. ☺

So far this morning we've had overcast conditions with intermittent rain. I admit I expected more rain than we have seen so far.
Also, looking at the water vapor loop this morning I am not as gung ho about the fate of our ex-TD, not given the setup of the troughs ATM. But we'll see what happens today.