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Earth Headed For its Hottest Year on Record After a Record-Warm September

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:38 PM GMT on October 20, 2014

September 2014 was Earth's warmest September on record, the period January - September was tied with 1998 and 2010 as the warmest first three-quarters of any year on record, and the past 12 months--October 2013 through September 2014--was the warmest consecutive 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. NASA also rated September 2014 as the warmest September on record. If 2014 maintains the same temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year as was observed during January - September, it will be the warmest calendar year on record. September is the fourth time NOAA has ranked a 2014 month as the warmest on record; May, June, and August 2014 were also the warmest such months on record. (April 2014 was originally ranked as tied for warmest April on record, but has since been revised downwards to the second warmest April on record.) Global ocean temperatures during September 2014 were the warmest on record, and the 0.66°C (1.19°F) ocean temperature anomaly was the highest ever measured, beating the record set just the month previously in August 2014. Global land temperatures in September 2014 were the 6th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 14th or 7th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a summary of September 2014's extreme weather.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2014, the warmest September for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was notable in much of northwestern Africa, coastal regions of southeastern South America, southwestern Australia, parts of the Middle East, and regions of southeastern Asia. In total, 31 countries and territories from all seven continents around the world had at least one station that reported record warmth. Cooler than average temperatures were uncommon world-wide. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .



Four billion-dollar weather disasters in September 2014
Four billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during September 2014, according to the September 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This brings the global number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the first eight months of 2014 to 21. This is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 33 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of September, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year. Here are September 2014's billion-dollar weather disasters:


Disaster 1. Torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing at least 648 people and doing $18+ billion in damage. Hardest-hit were India's Jammu and Kashmir region, where damages were estimated at $16+ billion. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this is the most expensive natural disaster in India's history, surpassing the $11.6 billion price tag (2014 dollars) of the July 1993 monsoon floods. In Pakistan, at least 207 people died and damage was estimated at $2 billion. Crippling and catastrophic floods have become the new normal in Pakistan, where the six most expensive floods in their history have come in the past eight years--2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2007, and 2013. In this image, we see Kashmiri residents struggling to withstand sudden and strong water currents while wading through floodwaters in their efforts to move to safer places in Srinagar, India, Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)


Disaster 2. Typhoon Kalmaegi hit the Philippines, China, and Vietnam between September 10 - 16, killing at least 31 and doing $3 billion in damage. The typhoon's first landfall, as a Category 1 storm, came in the Philippines’ Luzon Island, where 12 people were killed and at least 1,500 homes damaged, with damages estimated at $14 million. Kalmaegi killed nine people in China and did $2.9 billion in damage. In Vietnam, ten people were killed across northern sections of the country, and damages were estimated at $4.5 million. In this image, we see Kalmaegi as it swirled to the south of the island of Taiwan at night, as seen from the International Space Station by astronaut Reid Wiseman ‏(@astro_reid) at 3 pm EDT September 14, 2014. At the time, Kalmaegi had just crossed the Philippines' Luzon Island as a Category 1 typhoon, and had weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Hong Kong is the other bright patch of lights. Image credit: Reid Wiswman.


Disaster 3. Hurricane Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on September 15, 2014, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Odile was the strongest storm on record to hit Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula, and killed five people and injured 135. Tens of thousands of homes, structures and vehicles were damaged or destroyed by Odile’s high winds and flooding rains, and total damage was estimated at $2 - $4 billion. This is a MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Odile off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, taken at approximately 2 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014. At the time, Odile was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Disaster 4. Torrential rains in southwestern China on September 10 - 17 killed 50 and did $1.4 billion in damage. In this VIIRS satellite image from September 16, 2014, we see Typhoon Kalmaegi hitting southeast China at the same time as torrential rains from unrelated thunderstorms are affecting southwest China. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

An El Niño Watch continues
September 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, and sea surface temperatures were about 0.3°C above average in September in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months for an El Niño event to be declared. NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, and is giving a 2-in-3 chance of an El Niño developing this winter.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest September extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during September 2014 was the 6th lowest in the 36-year satellite record and was similar to September 2013 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). On September 17th, the Artic sea ice extent reached its annual minimum, two days later than average. The Northern Sea Route (also known as the Northeast Passage)--the shipping lane along the north coast of Russia in Arctic waters--was open for over a month in 2014, according to ice edge analyses by the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. The Northwest Passage through the Arctic waters of Canada did not open in 2014. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497. The Northeast Passage opened to ice-free navigation for the first time in recorded history in 2005, with the Northwest Passage following suit during the summer of 2007. Both passages have been open multiple summers since then, as long-term melting of the ice has continued. However, this summer's weather in the Arctic featured winds favorable for not letting sea ice drift out through Fram Strait, and we have seen the total volume of sea sea as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model pull back from the record low set in 2012. Some of the 2nd-year ice that survived the summer of 2013 has also survived the summer of 2014, so the ice pack is armoring itself a bit going into 2015 with a modest amount of multi-year ice compared to what we went into 2012 with (2012 set the record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent.)

Most spectacular weather videos of September

Video 1. Torrential rains in Serbia caused flash floods that killed one person and swept way cars, as seen in this video.


Video 2. A remarkable storm surge with high waves sweeps vehicles away along the northeastern coast of Turkey on the Black Sea on September 24, 2014. The surge was caused by a large 990 mb low; underground member barbamz saved a satellite image of the storm here.


Video 3. Spectacular sunset, aurora, and sunrise from the top of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire on September 12 - 13, 2014.

Mike Olbinsky's 7-minute video, Monsoon, taken during the June 15 - September 15 2014 Arizona monsoon season, has some amazing time-lapse video. I particularly like the sunset and rainbow at 2:15, the thunderstorm at 5:42, the "haboob" dust storm at 6:13.

Commentary
Earth's temperature so far in 2014 has been the warmest ever recorded without an El Niño event present, and could well be Earth's hottest year on record if current trends continue. If NOAA's predicted 2-in-3 chance of an El Niño event this winter verifies, and the exceptional warmth of 2014 carries over into 2015, next year could well be Earth's second consecutive hottest year on record, and be accompanied by unprecedented regional heat waves and droughts.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanx doc
on another warm note...CPC came out with their weekly ENSO report.....enso region 3.4 back at 0.5C anomaly
Thanks Doc.
Thank you Dr. Masters.
That was fast, thanks Doc! Looks like we are gonna get the 9-11 named storms this year the NHC was forecasting. woo hoo.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
If you didn't know.


Quoting 46. Sfloridacat5:



That's a scary senerio if a low does hang back in the the western Caribbean for a few days. We've been waiting all year to see something like that happen.
The western Caribbean is boiling hot right now.



Yep..Not only that, the ridge ( which appears to be oriented east to west ) has had its share of potent shortwaves. This could mean a abrupt change in track...I should mention that the shortwaves will be dry, therefor, not show up well on some charts..

Shees! Not a word about the two invests.
POSS TCFA
93L/INV/XX/XX
Just gonna throw this out and see if it sticks.
Most likely tropical moisture this week from the BOC SW caribbean. And ten days out(GFS) has Hurricane or strong TS at our door. NOT GONNA HAPPEN. Upwelling from this week will cool those waters just enough to keep anything that wants to form weak at best, shear may be high again after a lull mid week this week. GFS longrange not been so good this year. Correct me if i am wrong. I do not want nor do we need a hurricane in the next few weeks or even years. That said I will keep a close eye on the gulf for RI this week............. LOL, no doom and gloom sorry folks.
Quoting 8. fmbill:

Shees! Not a word about the two invests.
that was the previous new blog post

today is a double feature

thanks for update doc

have a good day
Thanks Dr. Masters !
Quoting 10. weaverwxman:

Just gonna throw this out and see if it sticks.
Most likely tropical moisture this week from the BOC SW caribbean. And ten days out(GFS) has Hurricane or strong TS at our door. NOT GONNA HAPPEN. Upwelling from this week will cool those waters just enough to keep anything that wants to form weak at best, shear may be high again after a lull mid week this week. GFS longrange not been so good this year. Correct me if i am wrong. I do not want nor do we need a hurricane in the next few weeks or even years. That said I will keep a close eye on the gulf for RI this week............. LOL, no doom and gloom sorry folks.


Well it may not happen it could happen. Your upwelling argument is false since none is occurring. The water should not be an issue land interaction and shear might.
I think that last blog set a record for staying up for the shortest time period (3 hours maybe?).
For anyone that missed it, information on a possible GOM system can be found in the previous blog.
Quoting 10. weaverwxman:

Just gonna throw this out and see if it sticks.
Most likely tropical moisture this week from the BOC SW caribbean. And ten days out(GFS) has Hurricane or strong TS at our door. NOT GONNA HAPPEN. Upwelling from this week will cool those waters just enough to keep anything that wants to form weak at best, shear may be high again after a lull mid week this week. GFS longrange not been so good this year. Correct me if i am wrong. I do not want nor do we need a hurricane in the next few weeks or even years. That said I will keep a close eye on the gulf for RI this week............. LOL, no doom and gloom sorry folks.



I live in Florida and don't really care if we get a storm man get over it we are Floridians we are always at risk........
Quoting 7. hydrus:



Quoting 46. Sfloridacat5:



That's a scary senerio if a low does hang back in the the western Caribbean for a few days. We've been waiting all year to see something like that happen.
The western Caribbean is boiling hot right now.



Yep..Not only that, the ridge ( which appears to be oriented east to west ) has had its share of potent shortwaves. This could mean a abrupt change in track...I should mention that the shortwaves will be dry, therefor, not show up well on some charts..



season ends nov 30
six weeks to go
a lot can happen in six weeks
The Pacific basin had a bang-up season this year with some very powerful and destructive tropical storms but SST's are only part of the picture in the global scheme of things.  The Atlantic basin had a lower than average year and we know that we had very strong dust/SAL outbreaks coming off of Africa from May through August in spite of average rainfall in the Sahel and no drought conditions there.

The implications that warmer overall SST's would make tropical storms "stronger", or longer lived across their life-span moving into higher latitudes, makes sense but any drought conditions in the Sahel in the future could cause heavy dust outbreaks that could keep Atlantic SST's a little cooler.

My point is that Dr. Gray currently rejects any discernible impact on the Atlantic season due to climate change issues and we would be a few decades away from changing position on this issue.  However, the Pacific basin might be a better gauge in the future on this issue as it is a SAL-free basin and warmer SST's in the Pacific would result in very strong and longer-lived tropical storms. 

Just noting that the impacts of climate change will vary over time in specific regions of the world and that many of the listed disaster areas on the list border the Pacific Rim and/or Indian Ocean where some of the most evident SST anomalies are highlighted for September.
This should help to keep things a bit interesting in the Atlantic Basin.

Quoting 17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


season ends nov 30
six weeks to go
a lot can happen in six weeks



What we call "the season" ends in six weeks. Risk of Atlantic TC may not. The 2005 activity carried right on through December.
Quoting 17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


season ends nov 30
six weeks to go
a lot can happen in six weeks

Yep..I posted the MJO with that very thing in mind....Still plenty of energy out there.
WKC will like the 12Z GFS/CMC/NAVGEM xD

Lol hopefully some weather here again... soon!!!
GFS ensembles

Models are starting to show another negative AO......not a surprise...

Quoting 20. georgevandenberghe:



What we call "the season" ends in six weeks. Risk of Atlantic TC may not. The 2005 activity carried right on through December.
always possible anytime of year just less likely from dec 1st till end of april early may
Things could get interesting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. 93L currently in the BOC will move generally eastward over the Yucatan peninsula. As it does so, an upper level trough will approach from the north and begin to interact with 93L leading to the formation of double barrel surface lows from vorticity stretching, one that tracks in the western Caribbean and another that tracks ENE in the general direction tracking south of Florida imparting anywhere from 3-6in. of rainfall based on the latest model guidance. Of greater interests is what happens to the parent low in the western Caribbean where conditions could be favorable development upper level troughing over the continent yield upper level ridging over the Caribbean and could allow a system to flourish. Very complicated dynamics at work here but it seems the models are picking out two systems.
Quoting 27. Drakoen:

Things could get interesting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. 93L currently in the BOC will move generally eastward over the Yucatan peninsula. As it does so, an upper level trough will approach from the north and begin to interact with 93L leading to the formation of double barrel surface lows from vorticity stretching, one that tracks in the western Caribbean and another that tracks ENE in the general direction tracking south of Florida imparting anywhere from 3-6in. of rainfall based on the latest model guidance. Of greater interests is what happens to the parent low in the western Caribbean where conditions could be favorable development upper level troughing over the continent yield upper level ridging over the Caribbean and could allow a system to flourish. Very complicated dynamics at work here but it seems the models are picking out two systems.
stop now or u will have wkc in a frenzy
just kidding wkc
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
Latest Euro brings it due east...

Quoting 26. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

always possible anytime of year just less likely from dec 1st till end of april early may
hi Keeper,lets say GW keeps getting stronger, the Earth grows warmer...in time do you suppose the hurricane season would be extended?
Quoting 32. LargoFl:

hi Keeper,lets say GW keeps getting stronger, the Earth grows warmer...in time do you suppose the hurricane season would be extended?
who knows but hey maybe we get a winter season for canes in southern tropical atlantic from Africa to south America
Hmmm 12Z HWRF look at S FL


Plenty of moist air..


Quoting Drakoen:
Things could get interesting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. 93L currently in the BOC will move generally eastward over the Yucatan peninsula. As it does so, an upper level trough will approach from the north and begin to interact with 93L leading to the formation of double barrel surface lows from vorticity stretching, one that tracks in the western Caribbean and another that tracks ENE in the general direction tracking south of Florida imparting anywhere from 3-6in. of rainfall based on the latest model guidance. Of greater interests is what happens to the parent low in the western Caribbean where conditions could be favorable development upper level troughing over the continent yield upper level ridging over the Caribbean and could allow a system to flourish. Very complicated dynamics at work here but it seems the models are picking out two systems.


Definitely a complex one lol
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

who knows but hey maybe we get a winter season for canes in southern tropical atlantic from Africa to south America
yes maybe things are changing
Quoting 31. hydrus:

Latest Euro brings it due east...




well gfs 850 shows this is what becomes
of system that may or may not form in nw carb

interesting

keep yer eyes peeled may get a little funky



FIM 9 5 to 10 inches of rain in S FL


Thanks doc for this little climatical interlude before our Floridians will completely take over the blog with 93L :-P (just kidding, folks; love you all).

Moreover I'm always proud to be the - quoting your entry - "underground member barbamz" :-) Europeans really sometimes are on a subversive submarine mission in here, lol, but on the other hand: US folks in here are really friendly and interested, so I don't have any reason to complain.

And thanks for posting this crazy video from Serbia. One of the most frightening weather videos I've watched so far.

To stay even more on topic: Europe certainly contributed its share to keep this year including October so far in the chase for record temperatures. Ex-Gonzalo now may spend us a cold spell and an early (short?) outbreak of winter though.


Temperature anomalies in September in Germany (Source DWD).
12z UKMET





last frame
12Z JMA






I know one thing any storms that pass the south or southeast this time of year will get cool after storms passage throw in a couple of blankets with the hurricane kit just in case
Quoting hydrus:


I personally believe 93L is too low in LAT to feel that TROF before getting caught by the building High so I would expect it to linger around some before resuming a NE type track.
Quoting 27. Drakoen:

Things could get interesting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. 93L currently in the BOC will move generally eastward over the Yucatan peninsula. As it does so, an upper level trough will approach from the north and begin to interact with 93L leading to the formation of double barrel surface lows from vorticity stretching, one that tracks in the western Caribbean and another that tracks ENE in the general direction tracking south of Florida imparting anywhere from 3-6in. of rainfall based on the latest model guidance. Of greater interests is what happens to the parent low in the western Caribbean where conditions could be favorable development upper level a troughing over the continent yield upper level ridging over the Caribbean and could allow a system to flourish. Very complicated dynamics at work here but it seems the models are picking out two systems.
i am on my phone so it is difficult to see images but could you please give me a possible time frame? TIA
What happens down the road with 93L seems to be governed by what happens while it's in the BOC. The GFS, NAVGEM, and CMC are more amped with the system in the BOC which translates to a developing strong system in the Caribbean meanwhile the European models are weaker with the vorticity and track it more to the east. May be best to track the positioning and strength of the 850mb vorticity to determine what will happen down the line. 

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 2h 2 hours ago

Result in 6-days is a potential major hurricane in Caribbean at time of year when Wilma scenario heightens antenna

Quoting 49. stormwatcherCI:

i am on my phone so it is difficult to see images but could you please give me a possible time frame? TIA
Time frame of what? The initial system could be impacting SFL in 4 days.
HWRF doing its thing.
It explodes development in the BOC.

979mb low right before the system starts crossing the Yucatan heading east.
7 days from now
gfs 12z 10 wind gusts kmh

Quoting 52. Drakoen:


Time frame of what? The initial system could be impacting SFL in 4 days.

I am asking about a possible threat in the NW Caribbean.

Quoting 56. stormwatcherCI:

I am asking about a possible threat in the NW Caribbean.
Too early to say
Quoting 46. ncstorm:

12Z JMA









Hey, this isn't doom!

Reported :p
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
FIM 9 5 to 10 inches of rain in S FL


What seems to make the most sense to me is to concentrate on the next 48 to 72 hours. The models have made specific predictions of where the low will be and the intensity. If that all proves out two and three days from now, I'll put more faith in what's going to happen in seven days. If things don't go like the models forecast, I'll have an idea about how big the error might be further out, since models never get more accurate with time.
Quoting 48. WxLogic:



I personally believe 93L is too low in LAT to feel that TROF before getting caught by the building High so I would expect it to linger around some before resuming a NE type track.
Way to early to tell..Once this is a depression or some close, the models will have more to work with. For what its worth, a deeper system will likely end up farther to the north..jmo

There is definitely a spin signature on the Low on the BOC. Very interesting to see it can tap the warm ssts and avoid shear from the north. because this one could be a doozie
Quoting 60. hydrus:
Way to early to tell..Once this is a depression or some close, the models will have more to work with. For what its worth, a deeper system will likely end up farther to the north..jmo



12Z Euro hammers FL this run. Kinda looks like a track similar to Hurricane King.

Most models now show a cat 1 or cat 2 hitting FL.
12Z Euro takes 93L clear up the state of FL. Very striking similarities to all the models this afternoon.
Emotionally moving new photo gallery about India:

BBC, 19 October 2014 Last updated at 22:33 GMT
In pictures: Kashmir floods aftermath
Last month's floods in Indian-administered Kashmir killed 281 people and left the main city of Srinagar under water. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it a "national disaster".
Photographer Abid Bhat chronicles the aftermath of the worst flooding in the region in half a century.
Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:



12Z Euro hammers FL this run. Kinda looks like a track similar to Hurricane King.

Most models now show a cat 1 or cat 2 hitting FL.

I agree the path is similar, but I hardly would use the word "hammers" without seeing a lower pressure center.
Winds are E to ENE north of the system and W to WNW south of the system based on coastal locations in Mexico.

Quoting 62. StormTrackerScott:



12Z Euro hammers FL this run. Kinda looks like a track similar to Hurricane King.

Most models now show a cat 1 or cat 2 hitting FL.
Grandmother talked about King. She lived on Miami Beach at the time..The pebbles they used on the roofs then were blasted off, shattering almost all the jalousy windows that were commonplace..She said it was a vicious hurricane.

Quoting 17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


season ends nov 30
six weeks to go
a lot can happen in six weeks

yes, this is the part of hurricane season I'm most concerned about for my area, SW Fl. The storms that form in the NW Caribbean are typically picked up by an approaching front and the storm curves over Cuba or Florida.
if 93L does develop and move like that into the western Caribbean those water are very warm lets what will happen also I can recall a storm track from the BOC into the western Caribbean
Wow... thanks for the link to this video Doc. The time-lapse weather itself is a sight to behold, and coupled with the dramatic music and timely momentary pauses during lightning strikes... I could have watched it for hours. Better than any movie I've seen in the past few years.

If you missed it in the good Doc's original post, it's at the end "Mike Olbinsky's MONSOON"

Absolutely worth the 8 or so minutes of playtime.
Assuming this map is correct, I don't see much coming from 93L, at least not in the immediate future. No anticyclone over it. Just it and 60kts of shear. Probably a rain maker for south FL but not exactly an environment conducive to hurricane formation.

Quoting 34. SFLWeatherman:

Hmmm 12Z HWRF look at S FL



I have never seen the Yucatan being hit in that side. Flooding might be an issue with this system.
Regardless of future strength all major models are showing heavy rain for S. Florida:

GFS


06Z GFS Ensemble Mean


GEM


JMA


Based on current Euro track I suspect it has heavy rain for S. Florida as well
Quoting 68. KeyWestwx:

yes, this is the part of hurricane season I'm most concerned about for my area, SW Fl. The storms that form in the NW Caribbean are typically picked up by an approaching front and the storm curves over Cuba or Florida.


agreed in the sense that prep time can be so short. CV storms such as Georges give much more notice. The BOC engines seem cranking up 93l vigorously.

on a different topic; most of the links to images on this page are coming up broken for some reason. If I right mouse and ask to "view image" the image appears. Have not seen that before today. - take care
I'm looking at levi's site and I dont see 93L going up the spine of FL









starting to see a spin with invest 93L
shear is forecast to subside in the gulf over the next three days
Quoting 76. ncstorm:
I'm looking at levi's site and I dont see 93L going up the spine of FL








I don't either but the GFS, ECMWF, GEM, NAVGEM, JMA,and GFS Ensembles all show low pressure near the Florida Straits or SE Gulf in the next few days. I would not ignore the flags of possible development. NHC thinks it has a high chance development that is good enough for me.
Am I mis-interpreting the 12z Euro? Strongest reflection I see "close to home" is 1004MB's at 144 hours south of Cuba and east of the Caymans.
Quoting 76. ncstorm:

I'm looking at levi's site and I dont see 93L going up the spine of FL








Floridas spine was operated on earlier this year...it's now located in the gulf!
On a serious note. It's interesting to see this S curve that most models are pointing at.
Is it one piece that gets taken away with the trough and the left overs creating the second half of the track??
Thank you Dr. Masters
I think the GFDL has the clearest picture of this.

Quoting hurricanes2018:


starting to see a spin with invest 93L
Me too, I think 70/80 next TWO and I think 93L is ignoring the shear.
86. bwi
I'm curious if folks know of any good studies liking Amazon drought with lack of Atlantic tropical storm development in the main development region. I seem to recall some analysis last year suggesting the drought in NE Brazil was creating an unfavorably dry area for tropical waves crossing the central Atlantic. There is a chart in this blog post (on drought in Sao Paulo) that shows still unusual dryness further north as well.
Quoting ncstorm:
I'm looking at levi's site and I dont see 93L going up the spine of FL










Long range 12z GFS has a strong system running up Florida from south to north.

Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro takes 93L clear up the state of FL. Very striking similarities to all the models this afternoon.
No. The EURO looks to be the weakest out of all the models and is west of Florida.
Quoting 68. KeyWestwx:

yes, this is the part of hurricane season I'm most concerned about for my area, SW Fl. The storms that form in the NW Caribbean are typically picked up by an approaching front and the storm curves over Cuba or Florida.


some power house storms can form fast as well

the last few weeks of the season or so


CRAZY WEATHER MODELES FOR THIS INVEST 93L
Quoting 86. bwi:

I'm curious if folks know of any good studies liking Amazon drought with lack of Atlantic tropical storm development in the main development region. I seem to recall some analysis last year suggesting the drought in NE Brazil was creating an unfavorably dry area for tropical waves crossing the central Atlantic. There is a chart in this blog post (on drought in Sao Paulo) that shows still unusual dryness further north as well.
well if they keep taking all the trees like they have done and still doing eventually over time it will become known as the Amazon desert
Quoting 88. LargoFl:




93L has some nice rotation. The next 7 days should be fun to observe.

Quoting 89. Grothar:


All I know it is going to get very wet in the southern half of the peninsula..

The parent low tracks into the Western Caribbean. What happens there will likely be determined by the upper level conditions.

Interesting post by Dr. Masters. I'd like to see a debate between him and Joe Bastardi who is vehemently Anti-Global Warming.
From US National Weather Service Miami Florida
The weather could take a turn for the worse this week, but the forecast is uncertain. We will keep you updated!
NASA study finds that the 1934 drought was the worst drought in 1000 years......................................Link
Quoting 95. jrweatherman:



93L has some nice rotation. The next 7 days should be fun to observe.
yes all eyes on the gulf this week for sure
gonna be an interesting end of the hurricane season to say it was in a lull in september and august.
Quoting 83. Grothar:

I think the GFDL has the clearest picture of this.




Lol, Gro, another attempt of Mrs. Grothar to park the car? At least she seems to know in which direction the car port is.
A few days ago I initially thought it would take a while for any system to develop. However, I would not be surprised to see a depression or even Ts by tomorrow. It appears the EURO wants to keep 93L closer to the Caribbean, while the GFS and others still move it eastward. The appearance of 93L is a bit more impressive than I thought it would be. Again, either way. The Keys, Cuba, South Florida (even the Turks and Caicos ;) should expect a tremendous amount of rain. Also, these systems have a tendency for splitting energy and could send part one way and a part another way.

POSS TCFA
93L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 104. Grothar:

A few days ago I initially thought it would take a while for any system to develop. However, I would not be surprised to see a depression or even Ts by tomorrow. It appears the EURO wants to keep 93L closer to the Caribbean, while the GFS and others still move it eastward. The appearance of 93L is a bit more impressive than I thought it would be. Again, either way. The Keys, Cuba, South Florida (even the Turks and Caicos ;) should expect a tremendous amount of rain. Also, these systems have a tendency for splitting energy and could send part one way and a part another way.


Hanna Montana is that you!
Quoting 103. barbamz:



Lol, Gro, another attempt of Mrs. Grothar to park the car?


She looked at it and thought it made perfect sense to her.
and farther out..an end to October surprise maybe??........................
Quoting 99. SFLWeatherman:

From US National Weather Service Miami Florida
The weather could take a turn for the worse this week, but the forecast is uncertain. We will keep you updated!



hehe.
Quoting 109. LargoFl:

and farther out..an end to October surprise maybe??........................
trick or treat express
Quoting 97. Drakoen:

The parent low tracks into the Western Caribbean. What happens there will likely be determined by the upper level conditions.




Drak. Do you see a possible split of energy as I do? While I am leaning towards the GFS solution, the EURO diving a bit of energy into the Caribbean also seems logical looking at this.
Station 42003 (LLNR 1395) - East GULF - 208 NM West of Naples, FL
NOAA just fixed the 42003 buoy just in time!!
Nice to have it back online since it went adrift in the spring. All instruments firing.
Quoting 86. bwi:

I'm curious if folks know of any good studies liking Amazon drought with lack of Atlantic tropical storm development in the main development region. I seem to recall some analysis last year suggesting the drought in NE Brazil was creating an unfavorably dry area for tropical waves crossing the central Atlantic. There is a chart in this blog post (on drought in Sao Paulo) that shows still unusual dryness further north as well.


Ongoing drought in Brazil must be very severe - comparable to the one in California, I think. Unfortunately you rarely see weather news from South America if you aren't looking for them.

Drought Hits São Paulo, Stirring Debate Ahead of Brazil Election
President Rouseff Says Rival Party’s Lack of Investment Condemns São Paulo
By Reed Johnson and Jeffrey T. Lewis, WSJ, Updated Oct. 19, 2014 6:02 p.m. ET
SÃO PAULO—The worst drought in 80 years is causing water shortages for an estimated 13 million people in Brazil’s most populous state and threatening businesses in an area that is the engine of the nation’s economic growth. ...
Storm wrapping up nicely in the BOC and the center is under minimal shear; I see little to stop rapid intensification in the southern BOC and western Caribbean; we will very likely have a major hurricane in the west Caribbean that will then move towards south Florida like hurricane Wilma and south Florida could easily be threatened by a category 2 or stronger hurricane this weekend. I think there is also a fair shot at a major hurricane hitting south Florida this weekend.
beginning of doom....
Quoting 112. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

trick or treat express


It is the GFS after all. Low confidence in that solution
Quoting 32. LargoFl:

hi Keeper,lets say GW keeps getting stronger, the Earth grows warmer...in time do you suppose the hurricane season would be extended?


Difficult to say. Warmer temperatures mean more energy available for longer periods of time, but that's only one factor.

A few months ago I downloaded topical storm information going back to earliest records (I think it was 1850 or so) and performed a simple analysis just out of curiosity. This is no where near peer review quality and has a number of caveats but over time hurricane season (the formation of the first tropical storm) on average seems to have been pushed back about 2 weeks earlier and the end of the season (formation of the last tropical storm) on average has gone two weeks later, giving about an extra "month" to the average hurricane season.

Intuitively it makes sense that the season would be longer since SSTs would be able to support formation for a longer period of time. But those same temperatures can also affect larger scale wind and weather patterns which may end up inhibiting formation (which is what some research indicates).



DOOM!!!
NAVGEM

CMC
Quoting 115. Invisabull:





Choose the gif-option to the right (if available) and copy this address to make it show up in here, Invisabull. html won't work.
Quoting hurricanes2018:



DOOM!!!


Double Trouble

Quoting 98. originalLT:

Interesting post by Dr. Masters. I'd like to see a debate between him and Joe Bastardi who is vehemently Anti-Global Warming.


It wouldn't be much of a debate. Someone who thinks that the laws of thermodynamics don't apply to the climate system (Bastardi) doesn't have very solid ground to stand on. At some point during the debate, Bastardi would tear off his close and start flexing while yelling at Dr.M "Ha! You're stupid! Do you even lift!?!?". An objective science panel would would declare Dr. M the winner as Bastardi's arguments violate the fundamental constructs of the known universe and good taste. Bastardi would then go on to claim that it's a conspiracy, he's a victim, and nothing would change.

The End.
Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia
You are viewing a feed that contains frequently updated content.


No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
‎Today, ‎October ‎20, ‎2014, ‏‎4 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
As of Mon, 20 Oct 2014 20:00:02 GMT
Invest 93L

Invest 93L
Last Updated Oct 20, 2014 18 GMT
Location 19.8 95.6W Movement NE
Wind 30 MPH
Still ripe in the western Carrib. and S.E. gulf.
Not so much in the BOC.

Quoting 102. bigwes6844:

gonna be an interesting end of the hurricane season to say it was in a lull in september and august.

i see more green starting next week??
Looks a lot like the CMC and NAVGEM
12z UKMET so far is agreeing with the ECMWF in terms of the CMC/GFS/NAVGEM being full of it.

Would 93L be given an Atlantic name or if this is leftover moisture from Trudy would it keep that name? I wouldn't think the latter but I don't know the naming conventions of systems moving into other basins.
POSS T.C.F.A.
93L/INV/XX/CX
Quoting 134. win1gamegiantsplease:

Would 93L be given an Atlantic name or if this is leftover moisture from Trudy would it keep that name? I wouldn't think the latter but I don't know the naming conventions of systems moving into other basins.
if it forms it will be given 09L/H/TD,OR TS, OR H OR MH/CX as the id
Going home early today but looks like the Bay of Campeche effect I mentioned this morning might actually set this one off a little earlier than later although I have yet to see persistent convection over a well defined coc and lots of shear................ LOL...  :)


Another Lenny
Quoting 137. jjjerry1:

I renewed my subscription to Crown Weather Services as posts like this are pure junk!
it all comes from NOAA so its junk where ever you look at it right

Quoting 138. weathermanwannabe:

Going home early today but looks like the Bay of Campeche effect I mentioned this morning might actually set this one off a little earlier than later although I have yet to see persistent convection over a well defined coc and lots of shear................ LOL...  :)





mid shear


My last post of the day and enjoy the watch. Here are the current BOC buoy readings just north of the system and on the coast and the current shear. Pressures finally starting to fall but shear still pretty formidable..................... See Yall in the AM.


Station 42055
NDBC
Location:
 22.203N 94W
Date: Mon, 20 Oct 2014 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSW (210°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (92°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.78 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.7 F

Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location:
 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Mon, 20 Oct 2014 20:00:00 UTC
Winds: W (260°) at 6.0 kt gusting to 8.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.72 in and falling
Air Temperature: 78.3 F
Dew Point: 77.0 F

have a good evening see ya in the am
Quoting 136. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

if it forms it will be given 09L/H/TD,OR TS, OR H OR MH/CX as the id


OK, and yea not saying it will form just didn't know how it would be named. I guess this moisture is just a spurt of what once was a surface low. Which takes me to this question - was the Ivan that moved down the coast and back into the gulf part of the moisture from the hurricane or was it the original low?
18Z NAM at 66 hours
Quoting 102. bigwes6844:

gonna be an interesting end of the hurricane season to say it was in a lull in september and august.

There's still shear to deal with and waters cooling down.
BBC weather video explains what was going on with 92L in the Canaries yesterday and has a little outlook to Ex-Gonzales as well:

Tenerife lashed with flooding rain
BBC weather video, 20 October 2014 Last updated at 18:05 Help
Intense downpours paralysed the Canary Islands as landslides and fast-flowing waters led to road closures. Jay Wynne reports.
Quoting 116. barbamz:



Ongoing drought in Brazil must be very severe - comparable to the one in California, I think. Unfortunately you rarely see weather news from South America if you aren't looking for them.

Drought Hits São Paulo, Stirring Debate Ahead of Brazil Election
President Rouseff Says Rival Party’s Lack of Investment Condemns São Paulo
By Reed Johnson and Jeffrey T. Lewis, WSJ, Updated Oct. 19, 2014 6:02 p.m. ET
SÃO PAULO—The worst drought in 80 years is causing water shortages for an estimated 13 million people in Brazil’s most populous state and threatening businesses in an area that is the engine of the nation’s economic growth. ...
Desalination might help them.
M 6.0 - 9km S of San Gabriel, Ecuador
PAGER - YELLOWShakeMap - VIIIDYFI? - VI
Time
2014-10-20 12:33:21 UTC-07:00
Location
0.511°N 77.825°W
Depth
10.0km
Quoting 140. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it all comes from NOAA so its junk where ever you look at it right


I agree, but hype here is much worse than even a few years ago and there is only a few good posts.


HWRF says 93L winds up like this and moving WSW...

The steering currents must be drunk..
18Z NAM at 84 hours shows the low split several of the models have been showing.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


HWRF says 93L winds up like this and moving WSW...

The steering currents must be drunk..


Yeah, the HWRF goes crazy with a 978 mb low going into the Yucatan.
Quoting 148. unknowncomic:

Desalination might help them.


Could it help California? Both - these parts of Brazil and California - are huge (not just little townships of fishermen) and need an ocean of fresh water to supply their numerous population and the need of a vast agriculture and economy inland!

Not Just California: Droughts Extend Across Americas
By Miguel Llanos
Quoting 150. jjjerry1:

I agree, but hype here is much worse than even a few years ago and there is only a few good posts.


nobody hyping anything just something to watch see how things go

we not screaming u got to evacuate yet

yet
Ex-hurricane Gonzalo starting to affect Ireland/Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Expected to bring 60-70mph winds, maybe even higher, across western parts of the UK and then 50-60mph gusts across the east. Pretty much everywhere in the UK is under a yellow weather warning for wind. It should also bring some snow across the hills and mountains of Scotland and heavy rain elsewhere.
Quoting 150. jjjerry1:

I agree, but hype here is much worse than even a few years ago and there is only a few good posts.
NHC hyping as well just a little

Hmmmm. NHC dug out the red
crayon for 5 days out on 93-L.
Quoting 156. Envoirment:

Ex-hurricane Gonzalo starting to affect Ireland/Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Expected to bring 60-70mph winds, maybe even higher, across western parts of the UK and then 50-60mph gusts across the east. Pretty much everywhere in the UK is under a yellow weather warning for wind. It should also bring some snow across the hills and mountains of Scotland and heavy rain elsewhere.




Stay safe and sheltered! First your turn, then we in Central Europe will follow a bit later experiencing what Ex-Gonzalo may have in the offer for us. Anyway I've started to secure the plants on my quite large backyard-balcony-terrace (yeah, a bit complicated piece of architecture) ...

Edit:


Possible track of Ex-Gonzalo: Right over my house in Germany --- no, I'm lying, lol. Hundred miles south of me, if this pans out. Source.


Good night folks, have an entertaining evening with 93L and company!
Quoting 158. canehater1:

Hmmmm. NHC dug out the orange crayon for 5 days out on 93-L.


Well along with the TWO upgrade, the NHC was also able to purchase markers.
Maybe we can afford the washable ones with a few more tax dollars..
Quoting 156. Envoirment:

Ex-hurricane Gonzalo starting to affect Ireland/Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland. Expected to bring 60-70mph winds, maybe even higher, across western parts of the UK and then 50-60mph gusts across the east. Pretty much everywhere in the UK is under a yellow weather warning for wind. It should also bring some snow across the hills and mountains of Scotland and heavy rain elsewhere.
1. Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system
towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

Quoting 158. canehater1:

Hmmmm. NHC dug out the red
crayon for 5 days out on 93-L.



some one late too the party on 93L
Quoting 139. juracanpr1:

Another Lenny


Yep, we are going to see another Lenny.

To compare with 1999... Gonzalo was Jose, and now Lenny part 2 is coming...

LOL
Quoting 151. JrWeathermanFL:



HWRF says 93L winds up like this and moving WSW...

The steering currents must be drunk..


Lenny...
Quoting 150. jjjerry1:

I agree, but hype here is much worse than even a few years ago and there is only a few good posts.

If you don't like the blog, leave. In any case this is looking like a significant hurricane threat to someone likely south Florida this weekend and next week. This is NOT HYPE. Wilma and Mitch type storms are very possible this time of year and with shear going down pretty probable with 93L. Look at zero shear in the Caribbean- easily a Mitch magnitude storm with a Wilma track to florida is a possibility.
Severe weather spotters wanted: National Weather Service offers training in CNY
By Glenn Coin | gcoin@syracuse.com, on October 20, 2014 at 12:48 PM
Quoting 157. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

NHC hyping as well just a little

Thank you, I think NWS is looking at many plausible outcomes and can't discount anything at this point.
Quoting 166. StPetersburgFL:


If you don't like the blog, leave. In any case this is looking like a significant hurricane threat to someone likely south Florida this weekend and next week. This is NOT HYPE. Wilma and Mitch type storms are very possible this time of year and with shear going down pretty probable with 93L. Look at zero shear in the Caribbean- easily a Mitch magnitude storm with a Wilma track to florida is a possibility.
anything and everything is on the table right now...everyone has an opinion...some agree and some don't....doesn't make it right or wrong...
Hit 71 today in S C IL, lots of sunshine thanks to 42 dew pt and press coming back up a little to 29.92", 5-10 W wind w/ WSW 19 gust. Sure the farmers getting back out, though forecast of cool dry thru weekend at least will let them stay out of wet spots for now. Hard maples & gums starting to really pop now, even oaks getting some change, so should peak this weekend I expect, through Halloween, if no major wind/storm to blow them off. Cooler midweek as low that forms nor'easter pulls cooler temps down, then hopefully around 70 for weekend. May finally get to do a leaf view boat ride. Wife always gives me grief about not winterizing earlier, hold out hope we get good day at peak w/out too much wind.
Quoting 123. SFLWeatherman:

NAVGEM

CMC

I think we all know this sytem whatever it becomes..will eventually lift northward,its that time of year and could...become somewhat dangerous over time if it sits under cuba for a few days
yeah IF it does sit under cuba, plenty of ammo for it there..............................
This could easily be a nightmare storm for the tampa Bay Area to orlando if it takes a more northerly track. A strong cat 2 hurricane tearing up the west coast- more likely it stays south of tampa but we will see.
Quoting 172. LargoFl:

yeah IF it does sit under cuba, plenty of ammo for it there..............................
that map looks like Dante's Inferno....
you can almost see..where its being pulled to.......................................
Quoting 174. SoFLRoofguy:

that map looks like Dante's Inferno....
yes waters still quite warm down there
Quoting 173. StPetersburgFL:

This could easily be a nightmare storm for the tampa Bay Area to orlando if it takes a more northerly track. A strong cat 2 hurricane tearing up the west coast- more likely it stays south of tampa but we will see.
we certainly need to keep a good eye on this one for sure huh
one other news weather channel is saying there's a good possibility of a Nor'easter storm going up the coast of new England tues thru thurs..
18z GFS is up and running.
Quoting 179. Sfloridacat5:

18z GFS is up and running.
Then you better go catch it! :P
hr 81 18z gfs shows two lows

Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Then you better go catch it! :P


Here we go!
18Z at 90 hours
The question is, will 93L ever cross the Tropic of Cancer while in the Gulf of Mexico?
I'm going to have dinner. Waiting for the model runs to complete is a lot like this--

Pretty interesting
Two 1005mb lows - one really getting S. Florida wet.
18z GFS at 108 hours.
hr 114 18z gfs double stretched lows

Hmm looking at the models for 93L looks like we in Cayman is gonna have to deal with it
1004 mb low hanging back in the Caribbean. What direction will it go? You would think it would follow the first low?
Quoting 176. LargoFl:
yes waters still quite warm down there

I was in the water the weekend, still summer warm temps...no sign of cooling yet.
Interesting read from the Miami NWS Disco...If you quote, please do so by post #! :)

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
18z GFS at 138 hours
Nice to see barbamz getting some props in the blog!
Quoting 187. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm looking at the models for 93L looks like we in Cayman is gonna have to deal with it


Great news right?
Quoting 187. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm looking at the models for 93L looks like we in Cayman is gonna have to deal with it


Going to be a wet weekend by the looks of it!
This is from the NWS in Melbourne this morning. FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.
18z GFS at 150 hours
998mb low in the Caribbean- hopefully it goes east and not north.
hr 144 end 18z gfs

Quoting 166. StPetersburgFL:


If you don't like the blog, leave. In any case this is looking like a significant hurricane threat to someone likely south Florida this weekend and next week. This is NOT HYPE. Wilma and Mitch type storms are very possible this time of year and with shear going down pretty probable with 93L. Look at zero shear in the Caribbean- easily a Mitch magnitude storm with a Wilma track to florida is a possibility.
You tell'em Mister! Way to go!
I just watched The Weather Channels Tropical Update and they spent 10-minutes talking about Anna and like i-minute on 93L. UGH..........
18Z GFS at 168
Heading for Cuba. We'll have to watch to see if it hooks back towards Florida or just heads OTS.
Quoting 197. Sfloridacat5:

18z GFS at 150 hours
998mb low in the Caribbean- hopefully it goes east and not north.

Most likely it will go NE and cross over Eastern Cuba.
Quoting 166. StPetersburgFL:

If you don't like the blog, leave. In any case this is looking like a significant hurricane threat to someone likely south Florida this weekend and next week. This is NOT HYPE. Wilma and Mitch type storms are very possible this time of year and with shear going down pretty probable with 93L. Look at zero shear in the Caribbean- easily a Mitch magnitude storm with a Wilma track to florida is a possibility.

It's almost like negative shear, if ya realize things could ALL be moving in the same direction. That'll be all kindsa conducive for development. That rocket fuel ain't been tapped at all this year.

peace n blessings ya'll-
Quoting 189. superpete:


I was in the water the weekend, still summer warm temps...no sign of cooling yet.
oh boy, thanks
AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. (?)
Quoting 201. Sfloridacat5:

18Z GFS at 168
Heading for Cuba

I would take anything pass hr 144 with a grain of salt now we wait for 00z gfs see if it still shows and moves up in time
Quoting 201. Sfloridacat5:

18Z GFS at 168
Heading for Cuba. We'll have to watch to see if it hooks back towards Florida or just heads OTS.

well nws Miami says it stalls out over the bahama's then comes back westward maybe into the gulf again...we really do need to watch this one
Quoting 206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I would take anything pass hr 144 with a grain of salt now we wait for 00z gfs see if it still shows and moves up in time
yes each run we need to watch but its still many days away...
GFS at 180 hours - crossing Cuba
Quoting 205. bappit:
AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. (?)

"The inconvenient storm"
I know its 10 days out but...Euro .................................................. ..
gfs 18z extended range hr 180



models are meant for guidance purposes only and donot depict final event
guys..first storm goes go out the east end of cuba,BUT..there is a second storm end of Oct..........
both euro and gfs say last week of October florida gets hit..so maybe 93L does split into two Lows..and one hangs around longer then comes up into florida?
Quoting 210. aquak9:


"The inconvenient storm"


Lol...This is how the discussion began...

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LET THIS WEEK...
xD




We never know... lol
CaribBoy..is that old 91L?

trick or treat?............................................ .................................................. ...
Quoting 218. CaribBoy:

xD



We never know... lol
ah two lows there
This could end up being a long during rain event for southern Florida.
Quoting 221. LargoFl:

ah two lows there


Threeeee
Quoting 169. SoFLRoofguy:

anything and everything is on the table right now...everyone has an opinion...some agree and some don't....doesn't make it right or wrong...
lived in south Florida since 1960 so i can recognize hype verses scientific based analysis when it comes to storms.
Hits the keys then dies in the Bahamas.. Meaning this run takes it out to sea.... sort of.
Quoting 223. CaribBoy:



Threeeee
yes we all could get some
Quoting 219. GeoffreyWPB:

CaribBoy..is that old 91L?




I'm not sure, maybe :) Would love to see development from it as well lol I'm starving of severe weather.
Quoting 226. LargoFl:

yes we all could get some


Lol :-)
see the first Low goes out to sea but the second low hangs down there longer........
Quoting 184. DonnieBwkGA:

I'm going to have dinner. Waiting for the model runs to complete is a lot like this--


A snurtle.?
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Going to be a wet weekend by the looks of it!

Agreed
well good night,we have many days watching the runs huh..........................
Quoting 187. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm looking at the models for 93L looks like we in Cayman is gonna have to deal with it


An interesting few days ahead. It's the time of year when they can come from anywhere and go anywhere. For now this is a slow mover and crossing the Yucatan peninsula will not be much of a deterrent to it staying organized. Still many variables though so only a watch and see for the time being. If anything, it is the second forecast low for the gulf of Honduras that would be the one to watch if it verifies.
Night Largo
LOL I wonder sometimes when the models are all over the place like this if the weather gurus laugh together an say I cant wait to see what the blogs do with this.
Quoting 184. DonnieBwkGA:

I'm going to have dinner. Waiting for the model runs to complete is a lot like this--




When I was a student (1978-80) the global model went out to 48 hours and was barotropically extended (sometimes) to 72 hours. The flagship regional model, the LFM went out to 48 hours also. But it was a decent primitive equation model. I'm not old enough to remember when the two layer model was all we had.. that had a very short lifetime in the mid 60s being replaced by the primitive equation global model (called the PE.. a grid point hemispheric precedessor to the global spectral model (GFS) which came into production in 1980)

We had a 300 baud fax line to NMC. It took about an hour for the five feet of LFM fax maps to print out. Other maps came out almost continuously but ..... Sloooooowly!. There was no Internet although DARPA was working on predecessor networks. Everybody clustered around the fax machine during interesting weather situations. Models were initiated later than they are now and took longer to complete and THEN we had to add the transmission time before we got them.

And I considered myself spoiled because from my earliest days as a student the models were decent. The biggest advances happened ten years prior to that time.
239. janme
In the list about the Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters it is said,that there would have been no deaths in the severe weather that we had from 6/8-6/10.But at 6/9 a severe MCS developed over Western Germany and 6 people were killed ( Essen, Düsseldorf, Cologne, Krefeld).
I do find the SE direction and then the turn North towards Florida an interesting turn of the scenarios.
242. DDR
Caribboy,how was Gonzalo on your end?is
your dry season is here?
Quoting 235. kmanislander:



An interesting few days ahead. It's the time of year when they can come from anywhere and go anywhere. For now this is a slow mover and crossing the Yucatan peninsula will not be much of a deterrent to it staying organized. Still many variables though so only a watch and see for the time being. If anything, it is the second forecast low for the gulf of Honduras that would be the one to watch if it verifies.
it will sputter along a few days once out into the nw carb things could get interesting in a hurry wait watch see
hr 156 18z gfs 10 m wind gusts max 90kmh

only moving ne at 2 mph
,



i see three lows here
Let me go and gag.
Tropical Warning Information


Current Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean* Tropical Systems

By npmoc-webmaster@navy.mil (JTWC Webmaster) from JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED. Published on Oct 20, 2014.
##No Current Tropical Cyclone Warnings.

* Includes Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea


Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems

By npmoc-webmaster@navy.mil (JTWC Webmaster) from JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED. Published on Oct 20, 2014.

Tropical Storm 02C (Ana) Warning #29
Issued at 20/2200Z

##TC Warning Text
##TC Warning Graphic
##JMV 3.0 Data
##Google Earth Graphic Overlay
##Satellite Fix Bulletin


Current Southern Hemisphere Tropical Systems

By npmoc-webmaster@navy.mil (JTWC Webmaster) from JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION FEED. Published on Oct 20, 2014.
##No Current Tropical Cyclone Warnings.


No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico

By CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
##As of Mon 20 Oct 2014 23:15:02Z
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 AM HST MON OCT 20 2014

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF ANA HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 30
KT CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK FIXES FROM JTWC AND
SAB CAME IN AT 3.5/55 KT...WHILE CPHC REMAINED AT 4.0/65 KT. SINCE
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANA HAS DEGRADED...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

IT APPEARS THAT ANA HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH ITS PRESENT MOTION BEING 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THIS NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING ANA
OVER THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS TVCN NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ANA IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANA INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH.

THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
PRESENCE OF ANA FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DURING THE 36 THROUGH 72 HOUR TIME FRAME. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO LOWER SHEAR
AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 AS ANA BEGINS
EXPERIENCE MORE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS ALONG CLOSELY
WITH SHIPS BUT REMAINS BELOW THE HIGHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE OF THE
HWRF AND GFDL WHICH APPEAR TO BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 20.9N 164.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 21.4N 165.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 22.3N 166.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 23.3N 167.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 168.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 27.5N 168.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 31.1N 166.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 35.8N 161.3W 60 KT 70 MPH


MAYBE HURRICANE ANA AGAIN
I hope Levi is going yo have a video post on Facebook on the low in the BOC. Love his work and insights! Some of the best at explaining what is going on.

Timm

Quoting 210. aquak9:


"The inconvenient storm"

I think you meant Confidence 
Looks like a rain event

.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have changed little
in organization since this afternoon. This system has the potential
to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later
in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge
with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow
afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while
it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late
Wednesday and development after that time is becoming less likely.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 172. LargoFl:

yeah IF it does sit under cuba, plenty of ammo for it there..............................


likely to be blasted upon by shear as well

and we all know that the SST/OHC won't help when a storm is being blasted by moderate to heavy shear.
Quoting 259. Articuno:



likely to be blasted upon by shear as well

and we all know that the SST/OHC won't help when a storm is being blasted by moderate to heavy shear.
aye but sometimes things just happen
Quoting 260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

aye but sometimes things just happen


aye it's 2014 :P

and before you say something about Gonzalo, Gonzalo had conditions that favored towards development.
RAP 22Z RUN HR 18 PRECIP RUN
New TWO a
50/60% with RECON flight tomorrow

Also
Yikes that's litteraly on top of my house

It's gonna get interesting that is for sure

Quoting 261. Articuno:



aye it's 2014 :P

and before you say something about Gonzalo, Gonzalo had conditions that favored towards development.
figure I wait a few days see where we are at
once its coming off the yuc into carb
Quoting 253. KeyWestbeachcomber:

Say it isn't so..Oh s*** ..Wilma deemed my Key West rental uninhabitable then had the nerve to cream my sister in Jupiter. This year I bought my first house in Little Torch Key and just when we thought we could put the shutters away...I have come here as I always do to get the skinny.I am an artist not a meteorologist. Right now I don't understand the forecast or the Map..we have lightning and rain on and off today. I always felt safe in tightly packed Old Town but now we are exposed.Wilma was all surge. Any input appreciated .Thanks!!

Rest assured, there is absolutely no indication that a Wilma-like storm will be forming anytime soon. Heavy rainfall will be the big story for South Florida over the next week.
Quoting 264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

figure I wait a few days see where we are at
once its coming off the yuc into carb


shear tendency maps are showing that the shear is decreasing
but the question is how much will it decrease
Quoting 261. Articuno:



aye it's 2014 :P

and before you say something about Gonzalo, Gonzalo had conditions that favored towards development.


The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.
268. MahFL
Quoting 266. Articuno:



shear tendency maps are showing that the shear is decreasing
but the question is how much will it decrease


A small area of 5kts less is grasping at straws.



Quoting 265. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Rest assured, there is absolutely no indication that a Wilma-like storm will be forming anytime soon. Heavy rainfall will be the big story for South Florida over the next week.
its best chance will be nw carb
Quoting 268. MahFL:



A small area of 5kts less is grasping at straws.




maybe u should email that too the NHC
Quoting Tazmanian:



lol watch out for that cat 5 hurricane heading your way its going too blew you a way

FLAGGED
Quoting 253. KeyWestbeachcomber:

Say it isn't so..Oh s*** ..Wilma deemed my Key West rental uninhabitable then had the nerve to cream my sister in Jupiter. This year I bought my first house in Little Torch Key and just when we thought we could put the shutters away...I have come here as I always do to get the skinny.I am an artist not a meteorologist. Right now I don't understand the forecast or the Map..we have lightning and rain on and off today. I always felt safe in tightly packed Old Town but now we are exposed.Wilma was all surge. Any input appreciated .Thanks!!
The Wilma scenario is really pushing it for now. Any developments that will be an indicator of whats to come are days off. You know October can be a dangerous month, so no harm doing what many do. Watch and observe.
Quoting 265. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Rest assured, there is absolutely no indication that a Wilma-like storm will be forming anytime soon. Heavy rainfall will be the big story for South Florida over the next week.


Thank you very much.Will stay posted. It's my birthday..NOW i can do a little jig..... Peace
No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
‎Today, ‎October ‎20, ‎2014, ‏‎9 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
As of Tue, 21 Oct 2014 00:00:02 GMT
Lol people on here want to hype 93l bug don't want to lol make y'all minds up ;)
Quoting 274. KeyWestbeachcomber:



Thank you very much.Will stay posted. It's my birthday..NOW i can do a little jig..... Peace
Happy Birthday
Quoting 273. hydrus:

The Wilma scenario is really pushing it for now. Any developments that will be an indicator of whats to come are days off. You know October can be a dangerous month, so no harm doing what many do. Watch and observe.
could be anything got to wait till we get there right now an area of disturb weather is what we got
93L/INV/XX/XX
I have some concerns regarding the Euro's projections:


Euro seems to shunt this low eastward, then loop-the-loop it in a westward direction. Am I seeing that right? What does that mean for communities such as New Orleans, Mobile, and Pensacola if that happens?
282. MahFL
Inverkip in Scotland is reporting 28 mph sustained winds from ex Gonzalo.
Quoting 279. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

could be anything got to wait till we get there right now an area of disturb weather is what we got


Disturbed weather...that's not all..you should see my hair!! This may at least motivate me to pick up those palm fronds. Thanks all for being here and being nice as always ..I really do depend on ya'll every season .I love seeing the familiar names every year too..Many Thanks..
Quoting 273. hydrus:

The Wilma scenario is really pushing it for now. Any developments that will be an indicator of whats to come are days off. You know October can be a dangerous month, so no harm doing what many do. Watch and observe.

No its not anything can happen especially with active mjo out there
Quoting 272. wunderkidcayman:


FLAGGED


Be cool man.
Quoting 279. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

could be anything got to wait till we get there right now an area of disturb weather is what we got
It is cause for concern. Wilma came from what I deemed a rather wimpy looking wave....We know all to well how that turned out.

FORECAST MAP HR 72 NHC
Quoting 242. DDR:

Caribboy,how was Gonzalo on your end?is
your dry season is here?


Gonzalo was very interesting... I want another one lol. Our dry season officially begins january 1st. We still have time to get some rain.. :-)
Quoting 288. mcluvincane:

I thought Taz got banned
I guess you thought wrong
Don't mean to be selfish, but this Thursday begins our annual vacation to Key West. Mucho $$ already spent. I have fingers crossed. I'm on this blog every day so thank you all for your info and insights. The thought of an evac out of Key West during Fantasy Fest with 70,000 extra people is frightening.
Wilma on October-23rd, then on the 24th over Florida...I never ever thought we would get hit by a major hurricane with its name beginning with " W ".

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have changed little
in organization since this afternoon. This system has the potential
to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later
in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge
with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or
northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow
afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
Concrete power poles made to withstand strong hurricane winds were snapped by Wilma.







Nearly every window on the west side of South Beach Community Hospital in Miami Beach was blown out.
How much ACE has hurricane Ana had? The storm has been around a while.
AL, 93, 2014102018, 198N, 955W, 25, 1007, LO
AL, 93, 2014102100, 195N, 952W, 25, 1006, LO
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

Has anyone noticed that the satellite info on this site stopped updating at 21:45 (5:45 PM)? What's the deal?!
Quoting 280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

93L/INV/XX/XX

I have been harping on for two days now how the low will center in Coatzacoalcos, then turn towards north Cuba. I don't get it. No one else but me is a weather prophet? Any GURUS with a half baked prediction they would like to share? I got this vision from a flock of crows,(or grackles., they were pretty high up). They came in off the beach a 'cackling in a clockwise motion and then the top half broke off in an anti cyclonic motion. So far I am right.
Quoting 292. animalrsq:

Don't mean to be selfish, but this Thursday begins our annual vacation to Key West. Mucho $$ already spent. I have fingers crossed. I'm on this blog every day so thank you all for your info and insights. The thought of an evac out of Key West during Fantasy Fest with 70,000 extra people is frightening.


I live in S. Florida. The locals will laugh at anyone evacuating for something like this. You'll be fine unless it's a major storm.
Quoting 299. NCHurricane2009:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

Has anyone noticed that the satellite info on this site stopped updating at 21:45 (5:45 PM)? What's the deal?!


Link
Its Captain Trough Save the U.S .Not Captain Trough Save the western hemisphere.Im just grateful its steeted storms away.Not everyone can be saved.
I think I jinxed myself by taking down some of our storm shutters this weekend to get ready for the big party week here in the Keys. The local meteorologist doesn't think this can get to hurricane because of the coming interaction with the front - personally I'm hoping it takes the southern track into the Carib, but then maybe it could spin up.....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 93, 2014102018, 198N, 955W, 25, 1007, LO
AL, 93, 2014102100, 195N, 952W, 25, 1006, LO

Hmm moving SE
Pressure dropped from 1007 to 1006
Quoting 303. washingtonian115:

Its Captain Trough Save the U.S .Not Captain Trough Save the western hemisphere.Im just grateful its steeted storms away.Not everyone can be saved.


Hard to say anything about saving any location for a storm that's probably not going to be anything more than a sloppy tropical storm.

I also wish people would stop putting emphasis on the trough. Not every trough coming down is unusual, especially now.
Quoting 302. KoritheMan:



Link

Hmmm...all satellite data on this site stopped updating at 22:00 (6:00 PM EDT) because none of the data or sat loops go past that time on my computer. I've even tried another computer and smartphone...all the same.
Quoting 301. JWMatthews:



I live in S. Florida. The locals will laugh at anyone evacuating for something like this. You'll be fine unless it's a major storm.

right...if you're really worried wear a life preserver.
We worry with high winds; heavy rains are a fact of life and the soil is sandy, so enjoy your vacation, but you may want to bring an umbrella and plan on a way to dry out your clothes!
Oh yeah, and bring flip flops for sloppy rain event :-)
Quoting 307. KoritheMan:



Hard to say anything about saving any location for a storm that's probably not going to be anything more than a sloppy tropical storm.

I also wish people would stop putting emphasis on the trough. Not every trough coming down is unusual, especially now.
Kori I know yoir angry because the troughs have prevented you from getting your storm.But it has saved us billions of dollars in terms of damaging hurricanes.No one said this storm was going to be the next cat 5 or that this trough is "unusual"
Also, the amount of hype surrounding this system by some people is incredible. Going through X hurricane X amount of years ago at X location has literally no logical connection to every single disturbance that becomes extant in the Gulf or the Caribbean.
Quoting 305. wunderkidcayman:


Hmm moving SE
Pressure dropped from 1007 to 1006
RI
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

Kori I know yoir angry because the troughs have prevented you from getting your storm.But it has saved us billions of dollars in terms of damaging hurricanes.No one said this storm was going to be the next cat 5 or that this trough is "unusual"


I'm a little miffed, but not angry. This year the pattern wasn't anywhere close to what it was the last few years, we just didn't get the storms. I'll let nature do its own thing and it'll eventually happen.

Although I do think all this talk of a trough saving Florida from 93L is a bit premature. Anything beyond a few days definitely is, and even then we're sometimes wrong.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20141016 _winteroutlook.html


It looks like the polar vortex will go back home this winter. Here in Fargo, the weather is beautiful. However, this warmer winter could mean a great deal of snow and possible spring flooding.
The winter outlook does not break the drought on the west coast, but the south could have a cold winter.
CheersQazulight 
Quoting 313. Gearsts:

RI


Lol..
Quoting 298. GeoffreyWPB:




Hey buddy, that don't look good at all!
Quoting 290. CaribBoy:



Gonzalo was very interesting... I want another one lol. Our dry season officially begins january 1st. We still have time to get some rain.. :-)


You are the most honest wishcaster on the blog.
Quoting 305. wunderkidcayman:


Hmm moving SE
Pressure dropped from 1007 to 1006

We don't need that hanging around here in October, you know October storms in these parts are slow movers!
what a mess

Quoting 309. NCHurricane2009:


Hmmm...all satellite data on this site stopped updating at 22:00 (6:00 PM EDT) because none of the data or sat loops go past that time on my computer. I've even tried another computer and smartphone...all the same.


That does seem odd. Might just be a problem with GOES in general.
Quoting 318. jrweatherman:



You are the most honest wishcaster on the blog.


I thought I was?

Do I have competition?
I don't comment much here, but mostly like to be a fly on the wall. I lived in South Florida during Wilma, and power was out for three weeks at our apartment in south Palm Beach County. It was all worth it going outside during the eye, however. That was an amazing and surreal experience -- and like one poster said below, I can't believe living through a major storm with a 'W' name. Never thought that would happen.

Also, is 93L the remnants of Tropical Storm Trudy? If so, how often do storms pass from the Pacific to Atlantic basin? I remember one storm -- I beiieve it became Douglas on the PAC side, which was a named Atlantic storm, then changed names and formed in the PAC.

Thanks.
Quoting 324. KoritheMan:



I thought I was?

Do I have competition?
There are many here ;)
Quoting 321. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what a mess


Rolling the windows up in my truck now. I noticed no one rebuked my forecast.
Quoting 327. Gearsts:

There are many here ;)


Honest wishcasters.

Most people aren't as open about their morbidity as I am, ya dig? :D
Models showing florida getting hammered with a good swath of 5 to 15 inches of rain over south florida. Models confirming what stormtrackerscott was saying earlier with a big rain event and possible cane for my state. Folks cayman island and Cuba are gonna get slammed- this will easily be a hurricane in that part of the Caribbean- and then depending on the trough it will go elsewhere.

Quoting 292. animalrsq:

Don't mean to be selfish, but this Thursday begins our annual vacation to Key West. Mucho $$ already spent. I have fingers crossed. I'm on this blog every day so thank you all for your info and insights. The thought of an evac out of Key West during Fantasy Fest with 70,000 extra people is frightening.
Looks now like your biggest concern will be all the ladies body paint washing off. Which may not be a bad thing.
HWRF

Quoting 325. jetpixx:

I don't comment much here, but mostly like to be a fly on the wall. I lived in South Florida during Wilma, and power was out for three weeks at our apartment in south Palm Beach County. It was all worth it going outside during the eye, however. That was an amazing and surreal experience -- and like one poster said below, I can't believe living through a major storm with a 'W' name. Never thought that would happen.

Also, is 93L the remnants of Tropical Storm Trudy? If so, how often do storms pass from the Pacific to Atlantic basin? I remember one storm -- I beiieve it became Douglas on the PAC side, which was a named Atlantic storm, then changed names and formed in the PAC.

Thanks.


It appears to me to be more like the combination of Trudy and the upper air trough over the east.
Quoting 301. JWMatthews:



I live in S. Florida. The locals will laugh at anyone evacuating for something like this. You'll be fine unless it's a major storm.


I know. I live in FL. I just don't want my bodypaint washing off! :) Seriously, I just don't want to be on KW even for a Cat 1 when my home could be affected as well.
Quoting 330. StPetersburgFL:

Models showing florida getting hammered with a good swath of 5 to 15 inches of rain over south florida. Models confirming what stormtrackerscott was saying earlier with a big rain event and possible cane for my state. Folks cayman island and Cuba are gonna get slammed- this will easily be a hurricane in that part of the Caribbean- and then depending on the trough it will go elsewhere.


I'll inform you of that when we probably don't get Hurricane Hanna.
Quoting 290. CaribBoy:



Gonzalo was very interesting... I want another one lol. Our dry season officially begins january 1st. We still have time to get some rain.. :-)


$786.22 in the rain fund CaribBoy!
Quoting 312. KoritheMan:

Also, the amount of hype surrounding this system by some people is incredible. Going through X hurricane X amount of years ago at X location has literally no logical connection to every single disturbance that becomes extant in the Gulf or the Caribbean.
Stop being such a downcaster, Kori. It's obviously going to RI into a cat-3 while in the BOC, hit the Yucatan, weaken as it crosses the peninsula, enter the Caribbean, RI into a 175MPH cat-5 as it hits the Caymans, turn around and then hit the Yucatan again as a cat-4, turn to the NE and slam into Florida as a cat-5, cross the southern part of the peninsula while maintaining cat-5 strength, destroy all of South Florida, head into the subtropics where it beings to weaken, and turn into a powerful extratropical storm.
Quoting 310. Chicklit:


right...if you're really worried wear a life preserver.
We worry with high winds; heavy rains are a fact of life and the soil is sandy, so enjoy your vacation, but you may want to bring an umbrella and plan on a way to dry out your clothes!
Oh yeah, and bring flip flops for sloppy rain event :-)



Who wears clothes for Fantasy Fest? :)
Quoting 331. floridaT:


Looks now like your biggest concern will be all the ladies body paint washing off. Which may not be a bad thing.



MY bodypaint! Which I've already paid for and picked the best of the best! :) Guess I'll just sit inside Hog's Breath.
Quoting 296. DonnieBwkGA:

How much ACE has hurricane Ana had? The storm has been around a while.

Check the all-knowing Wikipedia. ;)

Link
Quoting 337. wxchaser97:

Stop being such a downcaster, Kori. It's obviously going to RI into a cat-3 while in the BOC, hit the Yucatan, weaken as it crosses the peninsula, enter the Caribbean, RI into a 175MPH cat-5 as it hits the Caymans, turn around and then hit the Yucatan again as a cat-4, turn to the NE and slam into Florida as a cat-5, cross the southern part of the peninsula while maintaining cat-5 strength, destroy all of South Florida, head into the subtropics where it beings to weaken, and turn into a powerful extratropical storm.

You forgot CaribBoy but i agree on this scenario. ;)
Quoting 337. wxchaser97:

Stop being such a downcaster, Kori. It's obviously going to RI into a cat-3 while in the BOC, hit the Yucatan, weaken as it crosses the peninsula, enter the Caribbean, RI into a 175MPH cat-5 as it hits the Caymans, turn around and then hit the Yucatan again as a cat-4, turn to the NE and slam into Florida as a cat-5, cross the southern part of the peninsula while maintaining cat-5 strength, destroy all of South Florida, head into the subtropics where it beings to weaken, and turn into a powerful extratropical storm.



lmao Isaac you actually took the time to draw all of that hahaha

nice
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Check the all-knowing Wikipedia. ;)

Link


Just checked out the Atlantic side of that. Gonzalo collected 25 units of ACE, 11 short of the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 337. wxchaser97:

Stop being such a downcaster, Kori. It's obviously going to RI into a cat-3 while in the BOC, hit the Yucatan, weaken as it crosses the peninsula, enter the Caribbean, RI into a 175MPH cat-5 as it hits the Caymans, turn around and then hit the Yucatan again as a cat-4, turn to the NE and slam into Florida as a cat-5, cross the southern part of the peninsula while maintaining cat-5 strength, destroy all of South Florida, head into the subtropics where it beings to weaken, and turn into a powerful extratropical storm.

I can't imagine who would wish such a course, except for certain members and/or mods who shall go unnamed...
#337 you have been reported
Quoting 295. hydrus:

Concrete power poles made to withstand strong hurricane winds were snapped by Wilma.







Nearly every window on the west side of South Beach Community Hospital in Miami Beach was blown out.
Hydrus, that top picture was on the US1 bridge directly on the border of Broward and Palm Beach County at the Marina. I used to live right down the street and saw that 3 story boat storage house that collapsed completely with boats piled up one another!! I could not believe those cement poles snapped. A security guard from behind the condos told me that it was a tornado that took everything out as he was there that day and said he could here it howl through differently than the actual storm itself but who knows, everyone was kind of shocked in the aftermath. I was right down the street and my house was unscathed but the three houses directly across the street sustained major roof damage including one peeled and one de-attached from the structure. My wife and I got completely supplied up on Thursday because my gut told me this monster was coming and then JB said in his Thursday forecast that if you lived Palm Beach south, finish getting ready now!! I listened that time and ate and drank like a king until my power came back 11 days later. Sorry for the long diatribe but one more funny story, Sunday night we had a BBQ planned at a friends house like a month in advance and since we were all well supplied and had shutters up we decided to BBQ any ways. So off to their house we went, stopping at Publix to get a chocolate cream pie and bottle of wine. We're getting in line behind frantic last minute hurricane supply shoppers and people are looking at me like I'm crazy because all I have is a bottle of wine and a pie and I'm telling people it's all I need. LMAO!! Always good to be prepared, year in, year out!!
Quoting 325. jetpixx:

I don't comment much here, but mostly like to be a fly on the wall. I lived in South Florida during Wilma, and power was out for three weeks at our apartment in south Palm Beach County. It was all worth it going outside during the eye, however. That was an amazing and surreal experience -- and like one poster said below, I can't believe living through a major storm with a 'W' name. Never thought that would happen.

Also, is 93L the remnants of Tropical Storm Trudy? If so, how often do storms pass from the Pacific to Atlantic basin? I remember one storm -- I beiieve it became Douglas on the PAC side, which was a named Atlantic storm, then changed names and formed in the PAC.

Thanks.



they dont do the name changed any more has long has the low stays intac it wont get a new name but how ever if the low falls a part be for it done with the crossing then gets in the gulf wish may be the case then we get a new name
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hey buddy, that don't look good at all!

Hey what you think of this
Quoting 342. KoritheMan:



lmao Isaac you actually took the time to draw all of that hahaha

nice
Didn't have anything better to do at that moment.

Quoting 341. Gearsts:

You forgot CaribBoy but i agree on this scenario. ;)

Lets not get unrealistic here. We can't have a system go all the way to the eastern section of the Caribbean, from the Yucatan, and then all they way back to Florida. :)
Quoting 344. CosmicEvents:

I can't imagine who would wish such a course, except for certain members and/or mods who shall go unnamed...


uh he was being facetious

relax mannn
Quoting 350. KoritheMan:



uh he was being facetious

relax mannn
I know he was being facetious. So was I. He doesn't wish this chicane type cat5 turneroo...but there are some who do. For observational purposes only.:)

Quoting 344. CosmicEvents:

I can't imagine who would wish such a course, except for certain members and/or mods who shall go unnamed...
I couldnt agree more. I've already put my SFlorida peeps on alert for a Cat 3, withcopious rainfall during a 3 day period. This is the one, fellas. Seat belts and pith helmets on, please!
Quoting 343. CybrTeddy:



Just checked out the Atlantic side of that. Gonzalo collected 25 units of ACE, 11 short of the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

Yup. Gonzalo makes up 39% of the seasonal ACE so far this season. In addition, thanks to Fay and Gonzalo, the month of October has contributed the most ACE (44%) so far this year. Pretty neat.
354. flsky
We're beginning to get some cloud cover from 93L now in ECFL. Also feels more humid.
Quoting 353. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yup. Gonzalo makes up 39% of the seasonal ACE so far this season. In addition, thanks to Fay and Gonzalo, the month of October has contributed the most ACE (44%) so far this year. Pretty neat.



i new Gonzalo was being a show off has far has ACE gos
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Check the all-knowing Wikipedia. ;)

Link


Thanks!
Quoting Tazmanian:



lol i no you guys love haveing me around


Hmm maybe a few years ago when you were ...less trollish now not so much sorry mate
Are there stats kept on ACE far back enough that we know which recorded hurricane had the highest proportion of it's seasons ACE? Andrew maybe?
Quoting 231. hydrus:

A snurtle.?


Snails riding on a turtle's back freaking out about how fast they are going ;)
Local weather reporters here in South FL are reporting that this system should stay south of us, due to a digging cold front.

363. skook
Quoting 357. Tazmanian:




lol i no you guys love haveing me around

You are my favorite west coast blogger :).
Quoting Drakoen:
The parent low tracks into the Western Caribbean. What happens there will likely be determined by the upper level conditions.


What is the chance it won't be determined by upper air conditions, and how would such a scenario play out?
Quoting 360. hurricanehunter5753:

Are there stats kept on ACE far back enough that we know which recorded hurricane had the highest proportion of it's seasons ACE? Andrew maybe?


If you are going by percentage then it would be the 1914 hurricane season which the 1 tropical storm that did form had 100% of the season's ACE.

Quoting 364. DonnieBwkGA:



What is the chance it won't be determined by upper air conditions, and how would such a scenario play out?
Never a dull moment with you on the blog. :)
368. JRRP
It's me or the GOES-13 stopped in this frame?
I do try Drakoen :)
Quoting 369. stormchaser19:

It's me or the GOES-13 stopped in this frame?


The sun is not shining here in southeastern North Carolina, so that certainly seems like a good assumption to me, yeah.
372. 882MB
Quoting 368. JRRP:




This scenario, thanks for pointing it out, like a a movie I saw. ''It happened before it will happen again'' and no I'm no wish casting, but slow seasons can give surprises, it takes 1 storm and a good trough too do such thing as Lenny did. Hopefully never happens but, this years hurricane season has ramped up at the end, and the MJO looks to stick for a while. What really has my attention, is that wave at 45 WEST, started where Gonzalo got started and some models like it, but well time will tell, just an area to watch.
Quoting 348. wunderkidcayman:


Hey what you think of this


I don't like it one bit , but with all seaweed and ants, I expected it! I don' t mind the rain , but nothing else!
Quoting 371. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The sun is not shining here in southeastern North Carolina, so that certainly seems like a good assumption to me, yeah.

You know which is the problem?
Quoting 306. Tazmanian:




reported




Too funny.
Still not very organized.

Quoting 376. KoritheMan
Still not very organized.



It's just big. Wonder if it'll go straight poleward, drift off to the NE GOM. It's been really hot in TX lately and not getting much cooler, I'm tempted to ask Ed Mahmoud what he thinks about a TX landfall.
Quoting 377. redwagon:

Quoting 376. KoritheMan
Still not very organized.



It's just big. Wonder if it'll go straight poleward, drift off to the NE GOM. It's been really hot in TX lately and not getting much cooler, I'm tempted to ask Ed Mahmoud what he thinks about a TX landfall.


A Texas landfall is impossible in this kind of Omega block pattern.
379. VR46L
Gonzalo hitting Ireland and the UK Norway met website ,,,,,



Still trying to work something out *shrug *
Quoting 378. KoritheMan:



A Texas landfall is impossible in this kind of Omega block pattern.


Any chance the block weakens and the system moves into the NE GOM?
Quoting JustDucky251:


Any chance the block weakens and the system moves into the NE GOM?


Why yes. Yes there is.





Quoting 346. OneDrop:

Hydrus, that top picture was on the US1 bridge directly on the border of Broward and Palm Beach County at the Marina. I used to live right down the street and saw that 3 story boat storage house that collapsed completely ....... My wife and I got completely supplied up on Thursday because my gut told me this monster was coming and then JB said in his Thursday forecast that if you lived Palm Beach south, finish getting ready now!! I listened that time and ate and drank like a king until my power came back 11 days later. Sorry for the long diatribe but one more funny story, Sunday night we had a BBQ planned at a friends house like a month in advance and since we were all well supplied and had shutters up we decided to BBQ any ways. So off to their house we went, stopping at Publix to get a chocolate cream pie and bottle of wine. We're getting in line behind frantic last minute hurricane supply shoppers and people are looking at me like I'm crazy because all I have is a bottle of wine and a pie and I'm telling people it's all I need. LMAO!! Always good to be prepared, year in, year out!!


That's a hilarious story! I am laughing out loud at your silly pie story. :)

Good story of preparedness...in the face of calamity, I should hope to have such presence of mind and good humor.
Quoting 382. kabloie:



That's a hilarious story! I am laughing out loud at your silly pie story. :)

Good story of preparedness...in the face of calamity, I should hope to have such presence of mind and good humor.


I always joke during calamity (not ABOUT calamity... there's a difference). People are too uptight!
Euro back in Pacific with 93L.
Quoting 380. JustDucky251:



Any chance the block weakens and the system moves into the NE GOM?


An Omega block is just a low > high > low pattern oriented in a west-to-east fashion, so the northeastern Gulf is automatically (theoretically) at play as long as the first low starts in the West.
Good morning over there. Interesting two days ahead of us in Western/Central Europe, according to this forecast:



Excerpts from Estofex for the storm connected with Ex-Gonzalo:

Storm Forecast, Valid: Tue 21 Oct 2014 06:00 to Wed 22 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Mon 20 Oct 2014 22:47, Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 and level 2 were issued for SE England, BeNeLux, N and E France, Switzerland, central and S Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 and level 2 were issued for NE Italy, the N Adriatic Sea, Slovenia, the N parts of Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Serbia, and the W parts of Hungary and Slovakia mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes, and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued from Scotland into NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A strong zonal flow is present across Europe. A first cyclone tracks eastward into Russia and brings wintry conditions into Scandinavia and northeastern Europe in its wake. Behind a transient and progressive ridge over central Europe, the next cyclone (ex-hurricane "Gonzalo") moves from Scotland towards Denmark, and a new trough ejects from the British Isles into central Europe.
Quiescent conditions prevail over southwestern and southern Europe, apart from quickly increasing Mistral and Tramontana winds over the western Mediterranean Sea at the rear flank of the amplifying central European trough.

DISCUSSION

... England into BeNeLux, NE France, Switzerland, central and S Germany, Czech Republic, Austria ...

A powerful jet streak (>50 m/s at 500 hPa) digs southeastward at the flank of the Scottish cyclone. In the course of the day, its axis is forecast to point across northern and eastern France into Switzerland and northern Italy. Very strong vorticity advection will be present at its cyclonic flank, which is forecast to catch up with the cold front around 09 UTC over southeastern England. Under the influence of its lift, a band of neutral to slightly unstable profiles will likely establish ahead of the cold front, largely overlapping with the very strong wind field of the jet streak.
In the 09 to 15 UTC time frame, thunderstorms become increasingly likely while the cold front moves from England into the Netherlands, Belgium and northern France. Storms will soon organize into multicells and bowing lines, and the risk of severe wind gusts increases betimes. In a strongly sheared and helical flow even in the lowest levels (15-20 m/s of 0-1 km shear and 200-400 m^2/s^2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, respectively), any updraft that manages to stay more discrete may also acquire rotation and produce a tornado.
After 15 UTC the limited area models show convincing signals that the convective activity will be bundled into one dominant line along the cold front, as it moves into Germany, Luxemburg and eastern France. Deep-layer shear increases from 20 m/s near the northern fringe of the unstable area to almost 50 m/s beneath the jet axis over France and Switzerland. A level 2 for severe wind gusts is issued for those areas where a robust overlap of strong shear, strong synoptic lift and at least a little CAPE exists, surrounded by a broad level 1. Limiting factors are the relaxing shear towards the north and the decreasing depth of the convective line towards the south, which makes it less likely that the immense shear beneath the jet axis can be fully consumed.
Until 00 UTC, the convective line is forecast to cross central and southern Germany, the Czech Republic and much of Austria. Along the northern Alpine rim, ageostrophic flow due to channelling (indicated by forecast pressure tendencies up to 10hPa/3h) may further enhance the strength of the wind gusts. ...

More see link above.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche are currently limited.
This system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across
the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast
to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Morning...

eastward ho!

93L is not going north into all that shear
06z GFS at 186 hours

20.10.2014: The remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo were forecast to bring gale-force winds and heavy rain to Europe on Tuesday after crossing the Atlantic.

Man, we now get pretty concerning warnings of the imminent windstorm in Central/Southern Germany. Winds should mix down into the plains with gusts up to 100kmh/62mph; full force up to 140kmh/86mph on top of our mountains. Trees still have a lot of leaves ...


Gusts (mph) approaching the European continent. Saved pic; here the updates.


Wetteronline.de explains what's going on right now. Guess this setup is familiar to you guys in the plains of midwest US?
Quoting 391. Chicklit:

Morning...

eastward ho!

93L is not going north into all that shear


Going into 30-40kt shear though
Carl Parker is showing the GFS and Euro developing something in the NW Caribbean but shoving it NE through Cuba and through the Central Bahama's and missing FL. That would be good, we don't want another Wilma. Looks like South FL is in for some nice rain over the next couple of days. We should miss out on the rain here in Central FL.
Quoting 392. Chicklit:



Good morning. You do realize these images are from last night, right ? For some reason they have not updated since 21:45 yesterday.
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS
ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED THEN
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS AND SE OF
THE AREA BY SAT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW GULF THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
E-NE. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TWO FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME THUS
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THIS FEATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW TO SHIFT ENE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE WEEKEND.

From latest Marine WX Discussion
Quoting 369. stormchaser19:

It's me or the GOES-13 stopped in this frame?

Quoting 346. OneDrop:

Hydrus, that top picture was on the US1 bridge directly on the border of Broward and Palm Beach County at the Marina. I used to live right down the street and saw that 3 story boat storage house that collapsed completely with boats piled up one another!! I could not believe those cement poles snapped. A security guard from behind the condos told me that it was a tornado that took everything out as he was there that day and said he could here it howl through differently than the actual storm itself but who knows, everyone was kind of shocked in the aftermath. I was right down the street and my house was unscathed but the three houses directly across the street sustained major roof damage including one peeled and one de-attached from the structure. My wife and I got completely supplied up on Thursday because my gut told me this monster was coming and then JB said in his Thursday forecast that if you lived Palm Beach south, finish getting ready now!! I listened that time and ate and drank like a king until my power came back 11 days later. Sorry for the long diatribe but one more funny story, Sunday night we had a BBQ planned at a friends house like a month in advance and since we were all well supplied and had shutters up we decided to BBQ any ways. So off to their house we went, stopping at Publix to get a chocolate cream pie and bottle of wine. We're getting in line behind frantic last minute hurricane supply shoppers and people are looking at me like I'm crazy because all I have is a bottle of wine and a pie and I'm telling people it's all I need. LMAO!! Always good to be prepared, year in, year out!!



Sounds like me when NC is supposed to get three inches of snow, just replace the wine with beer and the pie with...beer.
Hi all, if a hurricane warning is issued for Florida Keys for any storm, the first people to evacuate are the tourist, if your down their for any event you will be the first to leave, giving the locals time to get ready and evacuate if they so desire. Taz, Taz, Taz, what more can be said..
06 GFS at 84 hours - bringing heavy rain to the Keys and S. Florida.
The low tracks just South of Florida and towards the Bahamas.

For entertainment purposes only. There's just no way this will materialize.

00z GEM at 204 hours

404. MahFL
Quoting 401. NativeSun:

Hi all, if a hurricane warning is issued for Florida Keys for any storm, the first people to evacuate are the tourist, if your down their for any event you will be the first to leave, giving the locals time to get ready and evacuate if they so desire. Taz, Taz, Taz, what more can be said..


Most of the locals don't leave, especially for anything less than a solid Cat3.
Quoting MahFL:


Most of the locals don't leave, especially for anything less than a solid Cat3.


Yes, the locals in the Keys are pretty hard core and stay put unless its a major hurricane.
Even with the threat of a major hurricane, it can be hard to get many to leave.

One day there will be a really bad storm that will trap a lot of people on the Islands. They've been very lucky in recent years.
Based on the NWS forecasts.

Key West, Florida

Chance of Precipitation

Wednesday - 70%
Thursday - 80% (heavy rain possible)
Friday - 80% (heavy rain possible)

Fort Myers

Wednesday - 30%
Thursday - no mention of rain
Friday - 30%

Tampa
No mention of rain in the forecast for this week.

So right now it looks like only the Keys and extreme South Florida will get in on the action.
The rest of the state is going to remain dry.
GFS kills the low down by the Keys at the 384 hr.
408. beell
This is all I can find after a quick search this morning. Outage corresponds to the approximate time the GOES products quit updating. Maybe if nrt is around he may know more. The status message seems to indicate more of an issue with OSPO's internal network and not any problems with dissemination of products.

(OSPO - Office of Satellite Product Operations)

nrt?

Subject: Administrative: OSPO Network Outage Issued: October 20,
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------020009080802090403040308
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

*Topic: *Network problems

*Date/Time Issued**:***October 20, 2014 2230 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*Email and internet connectivity**

**

*Date/Time of Initial Impact: * October 20, 2014 2148 UTC

**

*Date/Time of Expected End:*TBD******

*Length of Outage:*TBD*
*

*Details/Specifics of Change:* OSPO is experiencing some network
problems at the present time. Details are unavailable at this time.
This may affect email and internet connectivity. We apologize for any
inconvenience this may cause and are taking the necessary steps to
quickly resolve the issue. A message will be sent to the user community
once more information becomes available.
Only the smart ones leave for a 2 or above. Our house in Islamorada was gone except for the concrete slab after Donna. Their will be another Donna type or worse to hit the Florida Keys and if you choose to stay, you most likely will die. The trouble with storms approaching South Florida is, they can go from a cat 2 to a major 4 or 5 in only a few hours. How long would it take to evacuate from Key West if a storm was above Miami and suddenly turned southwest ? Anyone remember Katrina, they were very luck it didn't become a major on it's way across South Florida and turn a little farther to the southwest.
Doesnt look like Tampa will be hit with any Cat 1 or 2, or any 'hammering' of FL other than what now looks like the Keys who will get the brunt of the rain. For me here in NFL the weather continues to look perfect, highs in the mid 70s and dry for the foreseebale future. My fav time of year! The dry season is def here to stay.

411. beell
Does not seem to be a problem with the Sat. Just the data stream.

loop not working blame the contractor. sure they got their money.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better
defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently not well organized, this system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves
slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula. Later in the
week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a
frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.




to much wind shear right now for invest 93L
417. MahFL
One person has died in the UK due to a falling tree from ex Hurricane Gonzalo.
Not to much sun today in S FL
From CWG
Quoting 411. beell:

Does not seem to be a problem with the Sat. Just the data stream.




NOUS72 KNES 202228
ADMNES
SUBJECT: ADMINISTRATIVE: OSPO NETWORK OUTAGE ISSUED: OCTOBER 20,
*TOPIC: *NETWORK PROBLEMS

*DATE/TIME ISSUED**:***OCTOBER 20, 2014 2230 UTC*
*

*PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED:*EMAIL AND INTERNET CONNECTIVITY**

**

*DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: * OCTOBER 20, 2014 2148 UTC

**

*DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END:*TBD******

*LENGTH OF OUTAGE:*TBD*
*

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE:* OSPO IS EXPERIENCING SOME NETWORK
PROBLEMS AT THE PRESENT TIME. DETAILS ARE UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
THIS MAY AFFECT EMAIL AND INTERNET CONNECTIVITY. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY
INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE AND ARE TAKING THE NECESSARY STEPS TO
QUICKLY RESOLVE THE ISSUE. A MESSAGE WILL BE SENT TO THE USER COMMUNITY
ONCE MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.


OSPO=Office of Satellite and Product Operations

Link
Nor'easter Expected To Bring Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, Beach Erosion To The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic
By Linda Lam Published: Oct 21, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT A nor'easter may develop by the middle of the week and it could be a long duration event for many people in the Northeast. An upper-atmospheric area of low pressure will slide southeast from the Great Lakes and spawn an area of low pressure at sea level off the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night. This low will then remain off the New England coast through at least Thursday. The low will also intensify as it meanders off the Eastern Seaboard. This low will combine with a strong surface high pressure system in eastern Canada to create a tight pressure gradient which will bring strong easterly to northeasterly winds into parts of the Northeast. This is an onshore wind for parts of New England, raising concerns for coastal flooding and beach erosion due to the prolonged duration and long fetch of these winds, particularly from the North Shore region of Massachusetts into Downeast Maine. The subtropical jet stream will also move north which will bring tropical moisture northward, enhancing the rainfall across the region.

Anywhere from the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England will likely be affected by heavy rain and strong winds. The exact track of the low will determine the timing and location of the heaviest rain and strongest winds.

The strongest winds and heaviest rain will most likely occur on Wednesday and Thursday, with over four inches of rain possible in some areas of Maine, New Hampshire and possibly Vermont.
Excessive rainfall and localized flooding, especially near rivers and streams, are likely. But there is also some good news.
First of all, parts of the Northeast really need the rain. Portions of southern New England and the lower Hudson Valley of New York are in a moderate drought, according to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor.

Secondly, the coldest air will stay locked up in Canada, so the only chance for snow during this event is Tuesday night into Wednesday in the central Appalachians where a few snow showers are possible above 2500 feet.

With that said, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast needs to ready for localized flooding, high surf and beach erosion starting midweek and continuing through Friday.
would be nice if indeed it did go back to the pacific side huh.......................
Good News, lower chance of development today for 93L from NHC.
Quoting 428. Fla727:

Good News, lower chance of development today for 93L from NHC.

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better
defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are
currently not well organized, this system has the potential to
become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves
slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula.
Later in the
week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a
frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern
Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests
in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

???


rain coming soon


Good Morning. 92L does not look as organized this morning as it was yesterday. Checking the two closet bouys this morning (to the North and on the coast of Mexico closest to the disturbance), air pressure is falling in the Northern Quadrant but wind speeds have died down since yesterday. On the coast (SW Quadrant), wind speeds are still at 19 knots but the pressure is rising. This time yesterday afternoon, pressures were falling at both locations.

North of the Disturbance

Station 42055
NDBC
Location:Tue, 21 Oct 2014 11:50:00 UTC
Winds:NNE (20) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height:3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period:6 sec
Mean Wave Direction:ENE (67)
Atmospheric Pressure:29.75 in and falling
Air Temperature:79.2 F
Dew Point:74.3 F
Water Temperature:82.9 F


On the Coast:
Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location:
19.174N 96.093W
Date:Tue, 21 Oct 2014 12:00:00 UTC
Winds:NW (320) at 19.0 kt gusting to 22.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:29.74 in and rising
Air Temperature:79.5 F
Dew Point:72.1 F


Changing rainfall common problem for entire globe, says UN-sponsored book


Siberian wildfires so intense they melted the permafrost beneath them. Flooding in Alberta that paralyzed a major city. Toxic algae blooms in Lake Winnipeg that have grown 1,000 per cent since 1990.

They’re all linked, say the authors of a new United Nations-sponsored book entitled “Water, Energy and the Arab
Awakening,” being released Monday. In it, 16 authors — including former prime minister Jean Chretien — argue that the world can no longer afford to ignore the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns and their consequences for human security.

“There’s a nexus between water security, food security and energy security,” said editor Zafar Adeel. “We’re beyond the point where you can deal with these three areas as separate silos.”

Just look at what happened in 2013, said Robert Sandford, one of Canada’s leading water scientists and one of the contributing authors.

In June, flooding submerged downtown Calgary. Two weeks later, Toronto was hit with more rain in two hours than it usually sees in a month.

Meanwhile, the Global Nature Fund declared Lake Winnipeg the “Threatened Lake of 2013″ as longer, heavier rains have been flushing so much runoff into it that efforts to reduce the resulting amount of fertilizers and animal waste aren’t keeping up.

And in northern Siberia, an outbreak of hundreds of wildfires was followed by rainfall so intense it flooded more than a million square kilometres.

“Many of our recent floods were similar in a number of ways,” wrote Sandford.


Link
What is a Nor'easter?

A nor'easter gets its name from the strong northeasterly winds blowing over coastal areas. They are most common between September and April and form off the East Coast of the U.S.

Nor'easters usually develop where cold air from Canada meets warm air from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. The Gulf Stream remains relatively warm during the fall and winter, which helps warm the colder air over the water. This temperature difference then fuels the storms.

Nor'easters are not always associated with snow, though wintry conditions do occur during these events. Typical nor'easters do bring heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion to the eastern coast of the U.S.
its going to be a nasty few days up along the mid-Lantic and northeast next few days....
Nor'easter takes shape
Northeast | Oct .21, 2014 5:03 am ET
- An upper level disturbance tracks across southern parts of the region triggering showers from West Virginia and western and northern Virginia through much of New England today.
- Later today and tonight the same disturbance triggers an area of low pressure to form off the Jersey Shore.
- That low slowly moves northeast passing off the New England coast later Friday or Friday night.
- Steadier rain moves into eastern New York and New England late Tuesday night and Wednesday as the low gets better organized and stronger.
- Showery rains continue in southeast New York and southern New England Thursday with the steadier and heavier rain pushing into northern New York and northern New England.
- Increasing northeasterly winds occur from eastern Massachusetts northeast to coastal Maine Wednesday and Thursday.
- Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion are possible from Cape Ann in Massachusetts to Down East Maine.
- Gusty winds are likely along the Mid-Atlantic coast too, but they will be blowing from the land to the ocean preventing coastal flooding there.
- Tuesday's highs will be in the 50s from West Virginia to Maine and in the 60s form Virginia to southern New England.
Quoting 411. beell:

Does not seem to be a problem with the Sat. Just the data stream.




Satellite works if you go here.

Link
AL, 93, 2014102106, 195N, 948W, 25, 1006, LO
AL, 93, 2014102112, 195N, 940W, 30, 1005, LO
Quoting 409. NativeSun:

Only the smart ones leave for a 2 or above. Our house in Islamorada was gone except for the concrete slab after Donna. Their will be another Donna type or worse to hit the Florida Keys and if you choose to stay, you most likely will die. The trouble with storms approaching South Florida is, they can go from a cat 2 to a major 4 or 5 in only a few hours. How long would it take to evacuate from Key West if a storm was above Miami and suddenly turned southwest ? Anyone remember Katrina, they were very luck it didn't become a major on it's way across South Florida and turn a little farther to the southwest.


That's what would worry me. Locals on the OBX hardly ever leave because they haven't had to deal with a major landfall in decades. You get the right type of storm riding up the Gulf Stream staving off the continental dry air (which doomed Irene) the surge would be disastrous.

I know someone who's a bit older than me who lived on the Onslow side of Surf City and his family went inland as they were afraid Fran would blow up crossing the gulf like Hugo did.
What time are the HH going out today?
Quoting 441. SFLWeatherman:





Not getting ahead of myself but just curious if this merges with a frontal boundary, that's the only thing outside of blocking highs that could bring the maybe possible tropical system up the coast. Steering currents favor a west to east movement across the Florida straits or Caribbean.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time are the HH going out today?
I'm pretty sure it was supposed to be 10:45 AM EDT.
At 1200 UTC, 21 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.5°N and 94°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 90 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb.


invest 93L this morning!!

Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 47 Comments: 77777
hh are going to find a depression out there this afternoon.
Thanks!
Quoting 445. Hurricane4Caster:

I'm pretty sure it was supposed to be 10:45 AM EDT.
It will be interesting to see how it pans out with 93L. The current model runs seem to have shifted over the Yucatan and towards the Caribbean; missing the frontal boundry below Cuba is another possible option perhaps. It's a wait and see as to shear.
Quoting 441. SFLWeatherman:




This seems very similar to Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996.
Link
Good morning all,

I've posted a new video discussion for those interested:

93L and Non-Tropical Partner to Bring Loads of Rain to Mexico, Cuba, Bahamas, and South Florida
Good Morning
I agree with your statement completely. Plenty of shear below Cuba now, not sure about 2-3 days from now. Looks as if it could spend several days over the warm waters south of Cuba. Always a possibility that it doesn’t merge as it seems models have it staying a little further south of Cuba than prior runs.

Quoting 450. weathermanwannabe:

It will be interesting to see how it pans out with 93L. The current model runs seem to have shifted over the Yucatan and towards the Caribbean; missing the frontal boundry below Cuba is another possible option perhaps. It's a wait and see as to shear.
455. JRRP

At the moment, as it should be heading into November, shear levels are rising across the board above condusive conditions in the Atlantic MDR; these late season Caribbean and Gulf storms need a favorable shear window somewhere to fully develop. We have seen some past years with "September-like" conditions stretching into October but this it not one of those years and certainly not a La Nina year with lower shear values.  No surprise to me at the moment that NHC is not bullish on this one (50%) at this time.

Hey Doc,

What about the Extremely Large Gray Areas shown on your percentiles chart? Why is there no mention of them? Also, could you please explain why most of the hotter areas are over the oceans where there are not a lot of accurate measurements going back to the 1880's? Very odd the use of colors to represent the .66 degrees of change, they go from pink to red extremely fast.
Quoting 458. FishingDaddy:

Hey Doc,

What about the Extremely Large Gray Areas shown on your percentiles chart? Why is there no mention of them? Also, could you please explain why most of the hotter areas are over the oceans where there are not a lot of accurate measurements going back to the 1880's? Very odd the use of colors to represent the .66 degrees of change, they go from pink to red extremely fast.


The extremely large gray areas are distorted by the map projection to appear much larger than they actually are. The poles don't have much data, and are not included in the NOAA analysis. It turns out that if you do try to figure out how much the grey areas have changed in temperature in recent decades using satellite data, Earth has warmed up much more than this plot shows, since the Arctic has warmed up much faster than the rest of the planet. Cowtan and Way (2014) had a paper on this earlier this year.

I don't agree that the oceans are poorly measured--I think we know their historical temperatures back to 1880 at least as well as we do the land temperatures. We don't have problems with instrument siting and urban heat island over the ocean, and there have been plenty of ship measurements of ocean temperature for more than a century.

Dr. M.
I don't agree that the oceans are poorly measured--I think we know their historical temperatures back to 1880 at least as well as we do the land temperatures. We don't have problems with instrument siting and urban heat island over the ocean, and there have been plenty of ship measurements of ocean temperature for more than a century.



thank you for this useful information
Quoting 463. JeffMasters:



The extremely large gray areas are distorted by the map projection to appear much larger than they actually are. The poles don't have much data, and are not included in the NOAA analysis. It turns out that if you do try to figure out how much the grey areas have changed in temperature in recent decades using satellite data, Earth has warmed up much more than this plot shows, since the Arctic has warmed up much faster than the rest of the planet. Cowtan and Way (2014) had a paper on this earlier this year.

I don't agree that the oceans are poorly measured--I think we know their historical temperatures back to 1880 at least as well as we do the land temperatures. We don't have problems with instrument siting and urban heat island over the ocean, and there have been plenty of ship measurements of ocean temperature for more than a century.

Dr. M.



How is it possible to measure to a .01 degree of accuracy the temperature in the 1880's when the thermometers we used then did not measure to that degree of accuracy? We have only been able to measure the temperatures to that degree of accuracy since the 1950"s when electronic thermometers were used.
has i said a few days a go i said we may see nothing out of 92L and 93L and it looks like i was right all a long


and stormtracker scott was right about the 5 to 7 name storms it gets a golden cookie for being right on the $ with his forcast of 5 to 7 name storms it looks like we will not see any more name storms this season has wind shear is really takeing over and we are heading in too NOV wish things really start too shut down for the season
how many days is 3 years?
Quoting 468. Tazmanian:

has i said a few days a go i said we may see nothing out of 92L and 93L and it looks like i was right all a long


and stormtracker scott was right about the 5 to 7 name storms it gets a golden cookie for being right on the $ with his forcast of 5 to 7 name storms it looks like we will not see any more name storms this season has wind shear is really takeing over and we are heading in too NOV wish things really start too shut down for the season

The fat lady has not sung yet, why are you writing off 93L for?
One minute to takeoff.
Taz, you are getting ahead of yourself, give it a little time first.
473. SLU
Quoting 455. JRRP:





Would be nice to see this wave wind up today.
Quoting 469. WaterWitch11:

how many days is 3 years?



Are there any real questions?

Edit: picture won't show that makes the whole joke, stupid smartphones
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
At the moment, as it should be heading into November, shear levels are rising across the board above condusive conditions in the Atlantic MDR; these late season Caribbean and Gulf storms need a favorable shear window somewhere to fully develop. We have seen some past years with "September-like" conditions stretching into October but this it not one of those years and certainly not a La Nina year with lower shear values.  No surprise to me at the moment that NHC is not bullish on this one (50%) at this time.

The next five days seem pretty clear now. The low in the BOC is going to drift over the Yucatan and then get stuck in the NW Caribbean, assuming it survives at all. The next shortwave trough is going to be stronger and penetrates further east and south than the models had forecast. The combination of the very strong LLJ and the trough will amplify the stream of moisture already observed coming east out of the tropics. This will probably form a non-tropical low somewhere between Cuba and Florida. The combination of the low and amplified moisture fetch is what will give all the rain to Cuba and Florida on Thursday through Saturday. After five days, shear in the Gulf, the LLJ, and how strong the shortwave troughs become will play a big part on if a tropical system can get going in the Caribbean. As we've see so many times this year, the models can be completely off the track after even 24 hours let alone 240 hours.

The one certainty in all this is that there's no chance it's going to rain in Alabama. Rats!
Quoting 466. FishingDaddy:



How is it possible to measure to a .01 degree of accuracy the temperature in the 1880's when the thermometers we used then did not measure to that degree of accuracy? We have only been able to measure the temperatures to that degree of accuracy since the 1950"s when electronic thermometers were used.

What is shown above isn't a measurement with 0.01 deg of accuracy, it's a global average of measurements, rounded to 0.01 - that's not quite the same.
Quoting 403. Sfloridacat5:

For entertainment purposes only. There's just no way this will materialize.

00z GEM at 204 hours


Thanks Cat5.. that's all I'm asking for!!
Quoting 466. FishingDaddy:



How is it possible to measure to a .01 degree of accuracy the temperature in the 1880's when the thermometers we used then did not measure to that degree of accuracy? We have only been able to measure the temperatures to that degree of accuracy since the 1950"s when electronic thermometers were used.


We only measure temperature to .1° accuracy, even since the advent of modern instruments in the 1950s. But when you average together millions of temperature measurements, it is useful to talk about variations of .01 degrees, even though the original accuracy of the measurement is only .1 degrees.

Dr. M.
Quoting 458. FishingDaddy:

Hey Doc,

What about the Extremely Large Gray Areas shown on your percentiles chart? Why is there no mention of them?

Parts of the gray no data areas on the NOAA analysis are available via other temperature datasets. Those datasets have matching trends to the NOAA data. Most of the areas indicated as gray/no data also are polar; these areas have some of the fastest warming rates on the globe.
Quoting 458. FishingDaddy:

Also, could you please explain why most of the hotter areas are over the oceans where there are not a lot of accurate measurements going back to the 1880's?

Satellites can estimate sea surface temperatures as well as lower tropospheric temperatures for most of the globe. The coverage from satellites goes back to about 1979
cmc got 93 on steroids worst nightmare for some
where is invest 93L GOING??
Quoting 463. JeffMasters:



If only the good Doctor was a regular commenter... He has the ability to slice through the noise of comments like a hot knife through butter.
Quoting 482. hurricanes2018:
where is invest 93L GOING??
nowhere fast. My guess is he meanders a few days then slowly drifts NNE towards SFLA.
If only the good Doctor was a regular commenter... He has the ability to slice through the noise of comments like a hot knife through butter.


that's because he knows the answer....he knows the science...he's not looking up info to make the argument...it's in his head
486. JRRP
well looks like no recon today
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
greatest rain totals for florida keep moving south


Dr. Masters,

It is a little disconcerting that you would say the measurements for the oceans in the 1880's were accurate when the record clearly states otherwise. Dr. Curry clearly and systematically disassembles this fallacy here:

http://judithcurry.com/2011/06/27/unknown-and-unc ertain-sea-surface-temperatures/

If we are not really certain about how the climate works, why do you rush to the judgement that man is responsible for warming the climate? There is enough uncertainty that it would merit consideration that natural cycles are responsible. Could it be that money is blinding you to the facts?
492. JRRP
Quoting SLU:


Would be nice to see this wave wind up today.


nice vorticity
It was a wet Monday evening across parts of southern Miami-Dade County, with almost 7 inches of rainfall recorded from 3-8 pm in the Palmetto Bay area!
Quoting 490. ricderr:

greatest rain totals for florida keep moving south



Hey Jeff, thanks so much for sharing my Monsoon time-lapse film with your readers, hugely appreciated!!

- Mike Olbinski
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