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Gulf of Mexico's 93L a Heavy Rain Threat; 92L Kills 5 in Canary Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:29 PM GMT on October 20, 2014

Moisture from Tropical Storm Trudy, which made landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico about 75 miles east-southeast of Acapulco on Saturday morning, has moved northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. A large area of low pressure (93L) is forming there, and will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida on Wednesday through Friday. Satellite loops show the low has plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized, due to high wind shear of 30 knots. Water vapor satellite images show there is dry air from Mexico flowing eastwards over the central Gulf of Mexico, which may slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, about 29.5°C. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Wednesday - Friday, giving 93L a better chance to develop in the later part of the week. The Monday morning runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all showed support for some slow development of 93L this week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. The low should move generally eastward or east-northeastward during the week, spreading heavy rains, with rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" likely over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Monday, October 27, 2014. 93L is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of 4 -8 inches to South Florida. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flooding from 92L kills five in the Canary Islands
A large non-tropical low pressure system spinning in the Eastern Atlantic between the Canary Islands and Azores Islands (92L) brought heavy rains and flash flooding that killed five people in the Canary Islands on Sunday. At Santa Cruz in the islands, 5.35" (136 mm) of rain fell in just six hours. This low is headed slowly westwards, and should not affect any more land areas. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be moderate this week over 92L, 15 - 20 knots, but ocean temperatures would be quite cool, around 23°C (73°F.) These conditions are marginally favorable for formation of a subtropical storm, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 30%, respectively.


Video 1. Torrential rains in the Canary Islands caused flash flooding that killed five people on Sunday, October 19, 2014.

Ex-Gonzalo to bring high winds to the U.K. on Tuesday
Hurricane Gonzalo transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm with hurricane-force winds on Sunday afternoon after speeding by southeast Newfoundland, Canada on Sunday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Cape Race, Newfoundland measured sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph at 8:30 am local time as Gonzalo moved past. Gonzalo hit Bermuda near 8:30 pm EDT Friday night as a strong Category 2 storm with sustained 110 mph winds, causing moderate damage but no loss of life. On Tuesday, the powerful extratropical storm that was Gonzalo will hit the U.K., bringing wind gusts of 50 - 80 mph. The UK Met Office has posted a "Yellow warning of wind" for the islands for Tuesday, with the highest wind gusts of 80 mph expected around coasts in northern Scotland.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Ana brushing the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday morning October 19, 2014. At the time, Ana had top winds of 80 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ana bringing heavy rains to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Ana continues to trek westwards away from the Hawaiian Islands, but its outer bands are still bringing heavy rains to Oahu and Kauai, where Flash Flood Watches are in effect. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 6" with locally higher amounts are expected before Ana finally chugs out to sea. Ana dumped 3.4" of rain on Honolulu on Sunday, a record for the date. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed that Ana was holding its own against high wind shear, and the storm is likely to re-intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday when the shear relaxes.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc!!!

Hmmm ...





This does not make sense ..... Malin head is supposed to get brunt of ex gonzo according to every other forecast but only Letterkenny has the warning here .....letterkenny is more sheltered than either Malin head or Derry .

Met eireann has me on code Orange




and the met office has me at code yellow




Do folks think I should ignore both Irish and UK state forecasts saying gusts in the region of 120km are expected and trust the WU one which has no advisory for Malin Head and Derry ....


Bring on the rain. I can't wait.
Ex-Gonzalo to bring high winds to the U.K. on Tuesday
Hurricane Gonzalo transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm with hurricane-force winds on Sunday afternoon after speeding by southeast Newfoundland, Canada on Sunday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Cape Race, Newfoundland measured sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph at 8:30 am local time as Gonzalo moved past. Gonzalo hit Bermuda near 8:30 pm EDT Friday night as a strong Category 2 storm with sustained 110 mph winds, causing moderate damage but no loss of life. On Tuesday, the powerful extratropical storm that was Gonzalo will hit the U.K., bringing wind gusts of 50 - 80 mph. The UK Met Office has posted a "Yellow warning of wind" for the islands for Tuesday, with the highest wind gusts of 80 mph expected around coasts in northern Scotland.

this storm is still going and going to hit the u.k wow
good blog!!
Quoting 5. hurricanes2018:

Ex-Gonzalo to bring high winds to the U.K. on Tuesday
Hurricane Gonzalo transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm with hurricane-force winds on Sunday afternoon after speeding by southeast Newfoundland, Canada on Sunday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Cape Race, Newfoundland measured sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph at 8:30 am local time as Gonzalo moved past. Gonzalo hit Bermuda near 8:30 pm EDT Friday night as a strong Category 2 storm with sustained 110 mph winds, causing moderate damage but no loss of life. On Tuesday, the powerful extratropical storm that was Gonzalo will hit the U.K., bringing wind gusts of 50 - 80 mph. The UK Met Office has posted a "Yellow warning of wind" for the islands for Tuesday, with the highest wind gusts of 80 mph expected around coasts in northern Scotland.

this storm is still going and going to hit the u.k wow


Its suposed to bring 85 mph gusts to me ( I don't live in the UK though ) .....
Thank you Dr. Masters.
Thanks Doc.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 7. VR46L:



Its suposed to bring 85 mph gusts to me ( I don't live in the UK though ) .....

I'm really not looking foreword to this, hope damage will be minimal. The storms last winter damaged my greenhouse and lots of trees.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

Looks like it may go further in the W Carib
The storm in the Canary Islands did not kill 5 people that was TS Delta, it killed 1.


new modeles FROM invest 93L
12Z 96hrs

108hrs

114hrs

Quoting 11. ZacWeatherKidUK:


I'm really not looking foreword to this, hope damage will be minimal. The storms last winter damaged my greenhouse and lots of trees.


Yes hope so , its been a quiet few months .... but winter is coming and the gales will be frequent


Thanks Dr. Not familiar with the topography in the Canary Islands so wondering if those deaths occurred as the result of rural mudslides or water flowing into cities as a result of mountain area flows or poor drainage issues; that picture you posted looks like there is a "slope" on that street.
Getting very close now

Visual imagery of the canaries

Here is a good shot of 92L off of the Canary Islands and the remnants of Gonzalo approaching the UK:

Quoting 17. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr. Not familiar with the topography in the Canary Islands so wondering if those deaths occurred as the result of rural mudslides or water flowing into cities as a result of mountain area flows or poor drainage issues; that picture you posted looks like there is a "slope" on that street.

It's very hilly and they build in the natural barrancas which is why it floods everytime. Only 1 person died this time.
Lets see what Recon FInds when they go in tomorrow but Southern florida will get a good Soaking the last shot since we have begun our Dry Season. I can see a weak to moderate Tropical Storm Affecting our area
Well, isn't this ducky! The annual Fantasy Fest in Key West is this week, and it's looking to be a rainout..... I know this was forecast by the models a couple weeks ago - sorry they were accurate this time!!
Very interesting that Ana is forecast to be a hurricane as far as 35N in the central Pacific. That would put Ana in limited company.
Quoting 24. ConchConvert:

Well, isn't this ducky! The annual Fantasy Fest in Key West is this week, and it's looking to be a rainout..... I know this was forecast by the models a couple weeks ago - sorry they were accurate this time!!
Every year its something , if its not a hurricane or tropical storm coming its Heavy Rain , something always happens to ruin it
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


That's new. Looks like the GFS takes part of the energy associated with 93L into the western Caribbean and blows it up there later this week/next week.
Quoting 13. opsthereitis:

The storm in the Canary Islands did not kill 5 people that was TS Delta, it killed 1.


Yes, one fatality (56 year old women) unfortunately. Apart from this I couldn't find any confirmation for the number of 5 mentioned in the English BBC article from yesterday, Doc (thank you for the update!) is refering to. Spanish BBC from today has 1, and this seems to apply to the local media too:

La unica victima mortal es una funcionaria de Asuntos Sociales del Ayuntamiento de Tacoronte
d. g. 20.10.2014 | 12:59
At 168hr the GFS has it moving North


Quoting 28. CybrTeddy:



That's new. Looks like the GFS takes part of the energy associated with 93L into the western Caribbean and blows it up there later this week/next week.
Quoting 25. Stoopid1:

Very interesting that Ana is forecast to be a hurricane as far as 35N in the central Pacific. That would put Ana in limited company.
Indeed..One model whips it up to a hundred Knots.
Too bad a the Alvarado radar in Mexico doesn't work or we'd be able to get a good look at the developing low.
But the Visible Satellite shows a large low pressure system getting organized down in the BOC.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Too bad a the Alvarado radar in Mexico doesn't work or we'd be able to get a good look at the developing low.
But the Visible Satellite shows a large low pressure system getting organized down in the BOC.

Maybe a 40/60 or 50/60.
174HR Cat 2 moving North
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
174HR moving North
I'm watching this one carefully.
This (Altamira Mexico) is the best we can do at the moment. This location works, but it's not very sensitive.

Wow Lol 12Z GFS
Duke will find the secret recipe that goes into Bush's Baked Beans before the 12z GFS solution pans out.
39. SLU
Quoting 208. washingtonian115:

HAARP!.lol.Well it looks like the work of Captain Trough Save the U.S has done it's job all season long.


Given the efficiency of "Captain Trough" (H.A.A.R.P.) in recent years, it might be a good while before we see a substantial hurricane strike on US soil. :)





Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow Lol 12Z GFS
DOOOMMMMMMM!! :) ;)
If this did make it into the gulf, we might have a significant system to deal with.




Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Duke will find the secret recipe that goes into Bush's Baked Beans before the 12z GFS solution pans out.
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:

Too bad a the Alvarado radar in Mexico doesn't work or we'd be able to get a good look at the developing low.
But the Visible Satellite shows a large low pressure system getting organized down in the BOC.




The very broad cyclonic circulation depicted on this loop stretches out several hundred miles on both sides of the Atlantic and E-Pac. It is going to take a few days for the whole mass/low to consolidate as it moves out of the BOC. Pressures are still currently rising in the BOC and it is a lot of air to move and pull in. The Bay of Campeche "effect" with the topography might be helping the current circulation flow but it will be on it's own once the whole complex moves out of that area.

Sheer is probably too high in the BOC at the moment to allow TD status at this time; if sheer were lower or suddenly dropped, I could see it developing faster but it looks like a very slow burn at the moment to my eyes: it looks like 40-50 knots of sheer over the disturbance at the moment per CIMSS:




Quoting hydrus:


That's a scary senerio if a low does hang back in the the western Caribbean for a few days. We've been waiting all year to see something like that happen.
The western Caribbean is boiling hot right now.
Woo Hoo. The Noaa floaters are up on the BOC:




Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The very broad cyclonic circulation depicted on this loop stretches out several hundred miles on both sides of the Atlantic and E-Pac. It is going to take a few days for the whole mass/low to consolidate as it moves out of the BOC. Pressures are still currently rising in the BOC and it is a lot of air to move and pull in. The Bay of Campeche "effect" with the topography might be helping the current circulation flow but it will be on it's own once the whole complex moves out of that area.

Sheer is probably too high in the BOC at the moment to allow TD status at this time; if sheer were lower or suddenly dropped, I could see it developing faster but it looks like a very slow burn at the moment to my eyes: it looks like 40-50 knots of sheer over the disturbance at the moment per CIMSS:






At the moment shear is too high everywhere except the extreme southern part of the BOC.
The best chance of development (real tropical development) is if the system takes a more southerly route and heads for the western Caribbean (and we see shear drop over the next several days).
12Z into S FL
Oh! No! 12Z GFS might have a new ball game in play.
990mb low right over S.W. Florida in 252 hour.

Hey, at least we have another possible system to play with. 252 hours is way out there for the GFS based on its track record this season.
Goodness! Hurricane Charley all over again.
Quoting 49. SFLWeatherman:

12Z into S FL

Hopefully this is a GFS trick, and it is certainly no treat.
This would be an interesting scenario, to say the least.

hello All..both models are still running..

12Z Navgem



12z CMC
Maybe its me or does every Floridian want a hurricane to come to there state
Quoting SLU:


Given the efficiency of "Captain Trough" (H.A.A.R.P.) in recent years, it might be a good while before we see a substantial hurricane strike on US soil. :)







I wonder if people realize most of the time when "Captain Trough" saves the United States he's usually impacting pretty much every one else from Barbados to Mexico to Canada. Not a very good Captain, should probably be demoted to Sergeant or something.
Gonna check back later in the PM on the BOC; SST's are there all the way to the Florida Straits but the downside is high shear levels, a current lack/complete absence of persistent convection, and a pretty dry surrounding environment. More factors against development at the moment than in favor.............I would take the models with a big grain of salt at the moment and wait until Wednesday before jumping to any conclusions:

Quoting 57. junie1:

Maybe its me or does every Floridian want a hurricane to come to there state
There must be quite a few bored people.
GFS at 240 is interesting. It has a system moving into the Eastern Caribbean..

12Z GGEM hits Tampa with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane. With another forming in the Caribbean. WOW!!
Been in the Bahamas the last few days so back in the saddle now.
The uninitiated maybe, but anyone who's lived through one, doesn't want another.
Quoting 57. junie1:

Maybe its me or does every Floridian want a hurricane to come to there state
last frame

Margin of error?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Been in the Bahamas the last few days so back in the saddle now.


Welcome back Scott.
We could have a very heavy rain event across some part of Florida (favoring S. Florida at the moment)
But two possible rain events with one following right behind the other.
October is beginning to look dangerous for the SE USA as well as the Carib.
71. 7544
Quoting 62. hydrus:

GFS at 240 is interesting. It has a system moving into the Eastern Caribbean..




looks like fl could see 2 systems hmmmmm
Quoting 69. Sfloridacat5:


Welcome back Scott.
We could have a very heavy rain event across some part of Florida (favoring S. Florida at the moment)
But two possible rain events with one following right behind the other.


Looks like the Caribbean & Gulf wants to get active as we exit October. This pattern looks dangerous for Caribbean & FL the next 2 weeks. We said that this pattern was coming well here it is.
12Z NAM at 84 hours

The NAM shows a very complicated setup with multiple low centers.
It seems to agree with the idea of one low moving through South Florida (most likely) late this week and another low moving into the western Caribbean.

Quoting 57. junie1:

Maybe its me or does every Floridian want a hurricane to come to there state
I,m sure there is a few out of the near 20 million that would rather do without it...
Quoting 58. ncstorm:





Well the eye would come right over me, awesome !
Quoting 7544:


looks like fl could see 2 systems hmmmmm


More likely it'll see zero, tbh. I doubt the upper level environment will support such a scenario of such extreme intensity, but genesis in the western Caribbean is usually more likely than in the Gulf of Mexico this time of year.

Now if the ECMWF starts sniffing it out...
12Z HWRF has 93L as a TS in 48hrs
Quoting 73. Sfloridacat5:
12Z NAM at 84 hours

The NAM shows a very complicated setup with multiple low centers.
It seems to agree with the idea of one low moving through South Florida (most likely) late this week and another low moving into the western Caribbean.



Looks like a piece of 93L gets trapped in the western Caribbean then comes north after the trough bypasses it. Very compilicated set up.
Quoting 76. CybrTeddy:


More likely it'll see zero, tbh. I doubt the upper level environment will support such a scenario of such extreme intensity, but genesis in the western Caribbean is usually more likely than in the Gulf of Mexico this time of year.

Now if the ECMWF starts sniffing it out...


I doubt 2 but one strong system could be knocking at the door this weekend from the south.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1202 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 12Z THU OCT 23 2014 - 12Z MON OCT 27 2014

excerpt:

GUIDANCE REASONABLY LIFTS A LEAD CLOSED VORTEX AND SOME MODERATLY
HEAVY WRAPPED-BACK COLD RAINS SLOWLY FROM THE NERN US TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THU-SAT...WITH COOLING HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US. A WAVY TRAILING FRONT LINGERS BACK
NEAR FL AND THE GULF OF MEXICO/MEXICO THAT MAY COMBINE WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NHC LOW POTENTIAL TO FAVOR A HEAVY PCPN
THREAT FOR S-CENTRAL FL LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UNCERTAIN
ENERGY SPLIT DIGGING INTO THE E-CENTRAL US BEHIND THIS CLOSED LOW
WOULD EFFECT ANY STREAM INTERACTIONS WITH THE LOW LATITUDES TO BE
DETERMINED.
Quoting 57. junie1:

Maybe its me or does every Floridian want a hurricane to come to there state


It's just you.

Wow! after 93L hits South florida late this week, the GFS has another Hurricane striking South florida again on the 30th. It seems like Mother nature is trying to catch up for a so far slow season. "Now where did I put those cans of sterno".
Quoting 81. jrweatherman:



It's just you.


What we want is irrelevant, nature will send the storm where it decides. If we see doom and destruction, so be it.
Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GGEM hits Tampa with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane. With another forming in the Caribbean. WOW!!


The wind shear is going to have to dramatically change for that to happen.
I was right.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201731
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Surface and upper-air observations indicate that the low pressure
system located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche is gradually
becoming better defined. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone during the next two to three days while it moves
slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and
possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is
producing gale-force winds and could gradually acquire some
subtropical characteristics during the next few days while it
moves slowly westward over relatively warm waters. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
93L now 50/60%
Quoting 46. Sfloridacat5:



That's a scary senerio if a low does hang back in the the western Caribbean for a few days. We've been waiting all year to see something like that happen.
The western Caribbean is boiling hot right now.
Yep..Not only that, the ridge ( which appears to be oriented east to west ) has had its share of potent shortwaves. This could mean a abrupt change in track..Edit.....I should mention that the shortwaves will be dry, therefor, not show up well on some charts..

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
...
Just gonna throw this out and see if it sticks.
Most likely tropical moisture this week from the BOC SW caribbean. And ten days out(GFS) has Hurricane or strong TS at our door. NOT GONNA HAPPEN. Upwelling from this week will cool those waters just enough to keep anything that wants to form weak at best, shear may be high again after a lull mid week this week. GFS longrange not been so good this year. Correct me if i am wrong. I do not want nor do we need a hurricane in the next few weeks or even years. That said I will keep a close eye on the gulf for RI this week............. LOL, no doom and gloom sorry folks.
POSS TCFA
93L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 57. junie1:

Maybe its me or does every Floridian want a hurricane to come to there state

A hurricane is on my want list right above bubonic plague and Ebola. In case someone doesn't get it---I do not want one
Quoting 90. weaverwxman:

Just gonna throw this out and see if it sticks.
Most likely tropical moisture this week from the BOC SW caribbean. And ten days out(GFS) has Hurricane or strong TS at our door. NOT GONNA HAPPEN. Upwelling from this week will cool those waters just enough to keep anything that wants to form weak at best, shear may be high again after a lull mid week this week. GFS longrange not been so good this year. Correct me if i am wrong. I do not want nor do we need a hurricane in the next few weeks or even years. That said I will keep a close eye on the gulf for RI this week............. LOL, no doom and gloom sorry folks.
You might just be right, Weaver the Weatherman. "and now back to Ralph Renick with the news".
Hi all, I haven't been lurking much with the quiet tropics close to home, but I hope you can give me your opinions. I was very surprised to see 93L pop up, I checked here yesterday. I have some work trips planned to the big cypress national preserve for later this week, Wednesday through Friday ? What are the chances that we will get heavy rain? Thunderstorms? Wind? Rain we can handle, but lightning... No way, I fear lightning. Thanks in advance. The big cypress national preserve is in collier county florida east of naples and west of Miami. Any chance it will go south or fizzle?