WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Gonzalo Near Hurricane Strength; 24 Dead, $1.6 Billion in Damage in India From Hudhud

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:40 PM GMT on October 13, 2014

Hurricane warnings are flying in the British Virgin Islands as strengthening Tropical Storm Gonzalo marches west-northwest at 10 mph though the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm passed over Antigua Island between 10 am - 11 am AST on Monday, and sustained winds at Antigua hit 45 mph at 7 am AST before the station stopped reporting. NHC is still able to get wind information from the island, and the island reported a sustained wind of 67 mph gusting to 88 mph late Monday morning. Winds at nearby Barbuda were sustained at 43 mph gusting to 61 mph at 1 pm AST. Satellite loops showed on Monday morning that Gonzalo was growing increasingly well-organized, with more low-level spiral bands and heavy thunderstorm activity. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds was apparent on visible satellite imagery, the sign of an intensifying tropical storm about to reach hurricane status. Guadaloupe radar showed that Gonzalo was close to closing off an eye, which should allow for more rapid intensification of the storm by Monday evening. Water vapor satellite loops showed a good degree of dry air surrounding Gonzalo, but with wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots, this dry air was not substantially impeding development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 29°C (84°F). The 8 am Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for development for the next four days, with light to moderate wind shear and SSTs near 29°C (84°F). Gonzalo should steadily intensify through the week, and has the potential to be a major Category 3 hurricane by Friday. The models are unified in showing that the storm will get caught up in a trough of low pressure and turn to the northwest on Tuesday and north by Wednesday, though our two top models, the GFS and European, are widely divergent on their prediction on how fast Gonzalo will get pulled to the north towards Bermuda. The GFS predicts that the storm will make its closest pass by the island on Friday night, while the European model delays Gonzalo's arrival until Sunday.


Figure 1. Guadaloupe radar image of Tropical Storm Gonzalo taken at 11:15 am EDT October 13, 2014. Gonzalo was close to closing off an eye, which should allow for more rapid intensification of the storm by Monday evening. Image credit: Meteo France.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Gonzalo taken at approximately 1 pm EDT October 13, 2014, as the storm was passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands. At the time, Gonzalo had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Fay dying
Tropical Storm Fay was racing east at 29 mph late Monday morning out to sea after battering Bermuda on Sunday with winds close to hurricane force. Sustained winds at the Bermuda Airport reached 61 mph, with a gust to 82 mph, at 7:34 am local time Sunday morning. The airport recorded 1.85" of rain from the storm. Fay is being absorbed by a cold front and will likely be declared post-tropical by Monday evening.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud taken at approximately 1 am EDT October 12, 2014, as the storm was making landfall near Visakhapatnam, India. At the time, Hudhud was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Heavy damage in India from Category 4 Hudhud
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud has dissipated after it powered ashore near Visakhapatnam in the Andhra Pradesh state of India at 05 UTC (3 am EDT) Sunday as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. At least 24 deaths are being blamed on the cyclone: 21 in Andhra Pradesh, and 3 in the neighboring Odisha state. Preliminary damage estimates are at least $1.64 billion (Rs 10,000 crore), with the heaviest damage in Visakhapatnam, a port city of 2 million, which received a direct hit. One-minute resolution wind observations from Visakhapatnam showed a peak sustained wind of 73 mph at 9:44 am local time Sunday, with a peak gust of 119 mph at 10:30 am. The station stopped reporting data at that time. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, Hudhud's preliminary $1.6 billion price tag would make it the 2nd most expensive tropical cyclone in India's history, behind the October 28, 1999 Orissa Cyclone, which killed 9,843 people and did $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars.) India has had just one other billion-dollar tropical cyclone disaster, the November 8, 1996 cyclone that killed 708 and did $1.5 billion in damage (1996 dollars.) Just last month, India had its most expensive natural disaster in history, when torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing over 600 people and doing $16+ billion in damage, as estimated by insurance broker Aon Benfield. India's previous most expensive natural disaster was the $11.6 billion (2014 dollars) in damage from the July 1993 monsoon floods.


Figure 4. Heavy rains from Vongfong as seen on Japanese radar at 22:45 local time Monday (9:45 am EDT.) Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Vongfong drenching Japan
Tropical Storm Vongfong made landfall at 8:30 am JST Monday near Makurazaki City, Kagoshima Prefecture, Kyushu Island, Japan according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA.) They rated it a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph at landfall, while the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) rated Vongfong a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Monday morning at 8 am EDT, Vongfong was racing northeast at 31 mph, and was centered about 100 miles west of Tokyo. Vongfong has injured at least 61 people in Japan, and dumped heavy rains of 1 - 2 feet. Japanese radar shows that Vongfong is still a major rain-maker, and the storm will likely dump up to a foot of rain over portions of Japan over the next day. Evacuation advisories were issued in populated areas flanking the Mount Ontake volcano, which fatally erupted two weeks ago, killing 56 people. Heavy rains from Vongfong may cause mudslides caked with volcanic ash along the flanks of the volcano.

Hawaii needs to pay attention to tropical disturbance 95C
In the Central Pacific, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 95C) located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii on Monday morning is headed west-northwest at 10 mph towards Hawaii. Satellite loops show that 95C is well-organized with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperature would be warm, 27 - 28.5°C (81 - 83°F) for the next five days along 95C's path, but that the atmosphere would dry considerably. These conditions favor development. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave 95C 2-day odds of development of 80%. Our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models, both show 95C passing very close to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday, and it is possible that the island could experience tropical storm conditions for the second time this year.


Figure 5. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put portions of seven Mississippi Valley states in their "Moderate Risk" for severe weather on Monday.

Moderate risk of severe weather today
An unusually amplified jet stream pattern over the center of the U.S. will bring severe weather on Monday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put portions seven states along the Mississippi River in their "Moderate Risk" for severe weather, with damaging winds from severe thunderstorms the primary threat--though a few tornadoes and some large hail will also likely occur. A suspected tornado ripped through Ashdown, Arkansas early Monday morning, killing one person and injuring three others.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has his take on the tropics in a <

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 489. WeatherNerdPR:


I guess that's something.
.SV.W.0069.141013T2250Z-141013T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
550 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALTHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 547 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF VARNADO...OR 8
MILES EAST OF FRANKLINTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DEXTER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.
Quoting Levi32:


Psshh, that's what multi-tasking is for :) Half my monitor is weather data and the other half homework.
Levi, what do think 91L's percentages will be in the next TWO.
029
WFUS53 KPAH 132253
TORPAH
KYC219-132345-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0070.141013T2253Z-141013T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
553 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
TODD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 552 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLARKSVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
GUTHRIE AROUND 625 PM CDT.
ELKTON AROUND 635 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE TRENTON AND ALLENSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

hurricane coming soon
Quoting Gearsts:
I guess that's something.

Those few showers are probably enough to knock out the power grid. Again.
There's some pretty intense downbursts in Gonzalo's eyewall, which makes sense with the 204 km/h reading at Saint Barthelemy.

Peak SFMR reading.

89 knots
(~ 102.4 mph)

Estimate surface wind (30 second average):

79.2 knots (~ 91.2 mph)
Category One Hurricane
A wee bit more Funktop green...

Quoting 503. HurricaneAndre:

Levi, what do think 91L's percentages will be in the next TWO.


Haven't even thought about it. Looks pretty unhealthy right now and may never develop.

(Saved loop).

Wow, hopping in late night in Germany and finding St Barths (with our CaribBoy somewhere on top) in the eye of blog interest. An evening for the books for sure!! Hope everyone stays safe over there with dear Gonzalo.
I see Gonzalo dealing with SW Shear now
1 dead after two tornado's hit Arkansas today, power lines down and thousands without power,gov declared a state of emergency in that state..this is one bad front folks..heed your local warnings next few days..stay safe out there
Quoting 3211976:
I see Gonzalo dealing with SW Shear now


Where are you seeing that?

Quoting Levi32:


Haven't even thought about it. Looks pretty unhealthy right now and may never develop.
It looks good on Satellite to me.
John Morales ‏@JohnMoralesNBC6 3m3 minutes ago
Esperen centro #Gonzalo sobre o arriba de 18 norte a las 8pm. Avión la encontro ahí y 62.9 oeste a las 6:10. Viento a nivel de vuelo 97mph.

Caught this while watching #Gonzalo on Twitter. Can somebody translate?
Sup, guess you missed the ignore feature....and the Severe weather in the entry too.

: P

Sangria, ewwwww'


Wah, wah, whiners are always welcomed.


Severe weather warnings from Dupage
Quoting 497. GeoffreyWPB:


Wow he really is strengthening might become a cat 2 before leaving the islands. Cat 4 is not out of the question when he is at open sea. The NHC really did almost perfect in intensity meanwhile most of all thought it was going to be a moderate to strong ts at best.
Quoting 514. CybrTeddy:



Where are you seeing that?




The blow off of the thunder storms to the SW of Gonzalo are streaming NE
Quoting 3211976:


The blow off of the thunder storms to the SW of Gonzalo are streaming NE


That'll be the result of an ULL that's forecasted to move southwards. Ventilation for Gonzalo when he moves out to sea.


i starting to see a eye here!
Next recon in 42 minutes.
528. txjac
Quoting 504. Patrap:




I can tell you that the weather behind all that is 100% gorgeous!


Not much to worry about far as dry air.
05
WFUS54 KOHX 132313
TOROHX
TNC125-132330-
/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0023.141013T2313Z-141013T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
613 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARKSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE...OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3648 8725 3649 8747 3665 8747 3665 8723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 207DEG 65KT 3660 8732

Quoting interstatelover7166:
John Morales @ JohnMoralesNBC6 3m3 minutes ago
Wait center #Gonzalo on or above 18 north at 8pm. Plane found her there and 62.9 west at 6:10. Flight-level wind 97mph. Caught while watching This #Gonzalo on Twitter. Can somebody translate?


Quoting 528. txjac:



I can tell you that the weather behind all that is 100% gorgeous!


U betcha,,

Houston called me... jus Gaw-jus' dey said.
The HRWF forcasted a intensifying hurricane goiing through the islands and calls for a strong storm headed out to sea.Props to that model.
23h UTC

Saint Martin Grand Case (french airport), 151 km/h and 83 mm of rain.
Saint Barthelemy 122 km/h 10 min avge wind speed and 154 wind gust
'Can'es to the left of me 'Nado's to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you..
Link
Quoting 500. Levi32:



Psshh, that's what multi-tasking is for :) Half my monitor is weather data and the other half homework.


Well, You're probably a more efficient individual than me :)
Folks in Clarksville need to take shelter. Tornado warning for you. This supercell has a history of producing tornadoes.
Quoting 535. JNFlori30A:

'Can'es to the left of me 'Nado's to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you..
Link



Actually, 'canes to the left and right since hawaii and bermuda are under threat from hurricanes and 'nadoes in more or less the middle. One was not too far away from me today but I was in class during it. :/
Wow... it's taking a while just to post because the connection keeps getting interrupted. :/
I'll be back on later with a couple of new blog posts..... hopefully.
Sideglance: Though the main topic of European weather today was/is the wide spread severe flooding in whole northern Italy (schools will be closed in many areas tomorrow), it didn't look any better in Lisbon/Portugal today:


Sielwolf @sielwolf71 @WetterOnline Lissabon heute, 8:04 PM - 13 Oct 2014

Culprit was this little cyclonic low off the shores of the Iberian Peninsula. You see the (non tropical) eye to the left?


(Saved current loop).
Quoting 535. JNFlori30A:

'Can'es to the left of me 'Nado's to the right, here I am stuck in the middle with you..
Link



My son lives in Blue Mtn Beach - you guys get some pretty good storms (but the shrimp at Goatfeathers is worth it). Ironic that he's in Franklin, TN tonight (just south of Nashville) and is under the gun.
Boomers,


U betcha'

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 629 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 624 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 618 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 617 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 613 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 613 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 613 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Quoting 543. thepoint:



My son lives in Blue Mtn Beach - you guys get some pretty good storms (but the shrimp at Goatfeathers is worth it). Ironic that he's in Franklin, TN tonight (just south of Nashville) and is under the gun.
Hi 'Point, It's loud and wet down here this evening, but no sirens to worry about! Love Franklin, used to hang out there often. Do you wu mail?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
629 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TIMBERLANE...HARVEY...
ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW ORLEANS...EAST NEW ORLEANS...
NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRETNA...OR NEAR NEW
ORLEANS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
CATHERINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 2985 9006 2997 9014 3003 9013 3004 9006
3006 9003 3005 9001 3006 8998 3016 8988
3015 8984 3013 8985 3011 8982 3016 8975
3015 8962 3012 8964 3003 8978 3003 8982
2999 8985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 232DEG 35KT 2996 9004
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NEAR ANGUILLA AND ST. MARTIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 63.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
Quoting 534. thunderfrance:

23h UTC

Saint Martin Grand Case (french airport), 151 km/h and 83 mm of rain.
Saint Barthelemy 122 km/h 10 min avge wind speed and 154 wind gust


10 minute average of 75 with a peak gust of 154 mph? That seems almost too strong.
Quoting 525. HurricaneAndre:

Next recon in 42 minutes.


Probably more like 4 hours, think there is a typo in mission takeoff time, does not correspond to mission duration time. Think more like midnight.

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
A. 14/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0408A GONZALO
C. 14/0000Z
D. 17.9N 65.0W
E. 14/0515Z TO 14/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
By the way, I didn't realize this but Hawaii really does need to eye the new TD closely.
from the entry,


Hawaii needs to pay attention to tropical disturbance 95C
In the Central Pacific, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 95C) located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii on Monday morning is headed west-northwest at 10 mph towards Hawaii. Satellite loops show that 95C is well-organized with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperature would be warm, 27 - 28.5°C (81 - 83°F) for the next five days along 95C's path, but that the atmosphere would dry considerably. These conditions favor development. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave 95C 2-day odds of development of 80%. Our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models, both show 95C passing very close to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday, and it is possible that the island could experience tropical storm conditions for the second time this year.
Link my new blog about this hurricane
08L/H/G/C1
Quoting 553. Patrap:

from the entry,


Hawaii needs to pay attention to tropical disturbance 95C
In the Central Pacific, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 95C) located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii on Monday morning is headed west-northwest at 10 mph towards Hawaii. Satellite loops show that 95C is well-organized with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be low, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperature would be warm, 27 - 28.5°C (81 - 83°F) for the next five days along 95C's path, but that the atmosphere would dry considerably. These conditions favor development. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave 95C 2-day odds of development of 80%. Our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models, both show 95C passing very close to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday, and it is possible that the island could experience tropical storm conditions for the second time this year.


I know, I know. I read that. But it says passing very close to the island. The graphic from the CPHC shows it making a possible direct landfall on the island as a possible hurricane. I didn't realize it was that serious. It is trying to pull an Iselle.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NEAR ANGUILLA AND ST. MARTIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 63.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

winds up to 80 mph
Quoting interstatelover7166:
John Morales ‏@JohnMoralesNBC6 3m3 minutes ago
Esperen centro #Gonzalo sobre o arriba de 18 norte a las 8pm. Avión la encontro ahí y 62.9 oeste a las 6:10. Viento a nivel de vuelo 97mph.

Caught this while watching #Gonzalo on Twitter. Can somebody translate?
He is saying that Gonzalos eye is at 18N at 8:00pm nd that wind at flight level is 97mph
91L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 558. HuracanTaino:

He is saying that Gonzalos eye is at 18N at 8:00pm nd that wind at flight level is 97mph


image I posted for 08l is centred at
18.51n63.25w
Gonzalo about to make his trip north. If it feeds into that moisture, it might become a sizeable hurricane.


Quoting thunderfrance:
23h UTC

Saint Martin Grand Case (french airport), 151 km/h and 83 mm of rain.
Saint Barthelemy 122 km/h 10 min avge wind speed and 154 wind gust
The St. Bart Airport (Gustav III or Grand Case, TFFJ) is not issuing any METARS or TAFs on any of my pilot sites. Where are you getting wind reports for St. Bart? The closest airport issuing METARS is Princess Juliana International Airport (TNCM) on the Dutch side of St. Martin/Sint Maarten, and they are reporting 32 knots with 56 knot gusts. Grand Case has not issued a METAR report since this morning. The wind speeds seem much too high.
Starting to see lightning to the Southeast, Barometer here is still high and steady.
(Turks & Caicos)

[edit]
Most likely the lightning is in the squalls in the moist area Grothar pointed out
Any news from CaribBoy?
95C

updating the watches and warnings!! update at 8pm

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
Quoting 550. Jedkins01:



10 minute average of 75 with a peak gust of 154 mph? That seems almost too strong.
Its in kph. 154 kph is about 95 mph or so.
Quoting Doppler22:
By the way, I didn't realize this but Hawaii really does need to eye the new TD closely.


I don't think I've ever seen a storm take a swing at Hawaii from the southeast.

Current lightning tracks in the US and co.
The little, tiny dot in the orange is Bermuda.


i had a wind gust up to 100 mph at my house!!
Say goodbye to Gonzalo. See you next year experts.
Quoting 492. LargoFl:

Local met here says there is a good chance he makes it to Cat-3 once he clears the islands
Does not matter if Gonzo tracks straight north like some models want, P.R. is going to get much needed rain guaranteed. The Rain forest there is truly priceless. It is all about the watershed. Good timing too for the critters and plants.
I'm suddenly becoming more interested in this.
Evening everybody.

I don't see the fuss about showing the hurricane and the cold front at the same time. Calling other people names because they're looking at one feature or the other is pretty darned unproductive, too. Encouraging others in such foolishness is just as bad.

We gots lots o' wx to talk abt tonight, folks.... can we can the anti-personal attacks and stay with that?

TYVM.....
Quoting 572. Grothar:

The little, tiny dot in the orange is Bermuda.




Poor Bermuda. Two storms in a week. Oh well, they can handle it well
Man! Mother nature must have waken up from a bad dream and said " I am not finished yet! "
Storms all over the globe!
Where are you?
Quoting 573. hurricanes2018:

i had a wind gust up to 100 mph at my house!!
Quoting 568. wxgeek723:



I don't think I've ever seen a storm take a swing at Hawaii from the southeast.
I thought this was the second or third one this season....

Quoting 576. wxgeek723:

I'm suddenly becoming more interested in this.

Interesting, yes, but I must be sure that sneaky Gonzalo goes OTS before I can devote more than a side look at Hawaii....
Quoting PR51:
If it is true that Gonzalo will pass well east of Puerto Rico, why is necessary to hold all the watches and warnings...
Quoting PR51:
If it is true that Gonzalo will pass well east of Puerto Rico, why is necessary to hold all the watches and warnings...
They think that the SW side of the hurricane will cover most of PR, and there are hurricane force squalls within those bands,thats what the guy in the lical weather service said
Quoting BahaHurican:
I thought this was the second or third one this season....

Interesting, yes, but I must be sure that sneaky Gonzalo goes OTS before I can devote more than a side look at Hawaii....


Iselle and Julio came from a much more easterly direction.
PUERTO RICO will be save from this hurricane Gonzalo!! the hurricane will go north of puerto rico!! very good news!
Quoting 577. BahaHurican:

Evening everybody.

I don't see the fuss about showing the hurricane and the cold front at the same time. Calling other people names because they're looking at one feature or the other is pretty darned unproductive, too. Encouraging others in such foolishness is just as bad.

We gots lots o' wx to talk abt tonight, folks.... can we can the anti-personal attacks and stay with that?

TYVM.....
Its not about the cold front.Its about Scott showing Armageddon rain totals for Florida again.That's what it was orginally about.
Still obsessed nc.
Quoting 579. hurricanewatcher61:

Man! Mother nature must have waken up from a bad dream and said " I am not finished yet! "
Best weekend since the end of July .... lol ...
Notice the effect when Gonzalo hits the dry hot wall around PR.... Notice the effect on the outer core...

Quoting 587. washingtonian115:

Its not about the cold front.Its about Scott showing Armageddon rain totals for Florida again.That's what it was orginally about.
Still obsessed nc.

At least rainfall totals are wx-related.... r u guys supposed to get any serious impact from this front as it pushes through? Looks like a lot of the energy [so far] is staying south....
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Where are you?
Fantasyland...
Quoting 584. HuracanTaino:


Uh yeah, and it is looming close offshore. Strange how some people look to others for answers when there is a growing swirl of pure destruction right next door. Don't look at the radar, just climb to the tallest peak and duck tape yourself to a tree. I will sleep better, and you might live.


nice picture!!
18z GFS



Weak TC in central gulf by 28rd of Oct.?



watches and warnings
Bermuda on the right side of the core of Gonzalo in a FIM run.

Quoting 589. sunlinepr:

Notice the effect when Gonzalo hits the dry hot wall around PR....



The eye is going to show on IR and visible pretty soon I reckon.
Isn't that the truth!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Best weekend sin the end of July .... lol ...
Quoting 587. washingtonian115:

Its not about the cold front.Its about Scott showing Armageddon rain totals for Florida again.That's what it was orginally about.
Still obsessed nc.

Orgin he's a playin I spose'. I and Scott have both been right about the plentiful rain. Even though the rivers are down from this recent dry spell, the ground is saturated and the watershed is too. It is already raining here tonight. With the continued direction we should get huge amounts of rain before the front. After that, it will probably flatten out, then we get continued tail effect.
Death toll in Alabama is already up to one with another severely injured after a tree fell on a house in Walker County, north of Birmingham. This is from the storms coming out of the Gulf, not the main line which is expected later this evening. These storms were not predicted at all but have produced tornadoes and tornado warnings since 2:00 this afternoon. I hope the main MCS, now entering NW Alabama, isn't any worse.
Blog's certainly slow tonight for an intensifying hurricane.
Levi 32 called the impact to Hawaii in his blog entry middle of last week ( his video prior to Gonzalo's formation video entry )on tropical tidbits
Full credit to him for some 'spot-on' meterology forecasting
Quoting 604. interstatelover7166:

Blog's certainly slow tonight for an intensifying hurricane.

It probably has something to do with the fact that Gonzalo isn't threatening the U.S.
Strong Debri Ball near Apalachacola, FL.
14/0000 UTC 12.5N 142.3W T2.5/2.5 02C -- Central Pacific
Strong Tornado on the ground per the NWS in Tallahasse

Quoting 605. superpete:

Levi 32 called the impact to Hawaii in his blog entry middle of last week ( his video prior to Gonzalo's formation video entry )on tropical tidbits
Full credit to him for some 'spot-on' meterology forecasting
You know, we are spoiled.... we are so totally used to Levi hitting stuff iike this well in advance that we're like, "Of course another hurricane is going to hit Hawaii...." lol ...

Well, it finally started raining here. Even though it's just a single cell, it won't be long until the power goes out.
Quoting 606. Ameister12:


It probably has something to do with the fact that Gonzalo isn't threatening the U.S.
Or even PR, really. If the eye was going over PR there'd prolly be a little more noise.
I of course have no quibble whatsoever if at about 30N Gonzalo hangs a right and plows straight into GA.... as a cat 3.... just to add some excitement to the blog, of course. Otherwise the current track is not so bad..... lol ...
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
836 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LIBERTY AND NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIE
S...

AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRM A
TORNADO VIA RADAR DATA. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF OWENS BRIDGE...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF EASTPOINT...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.


THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.
Quoting 611. WeatherNerdPR:

Well, it finally started raining here. Even though it's just a single cell, it won't be long until the power goes out.
SE US & NW US are in for a heck of a lot of rain.

Even on the current track PR is going to see much of the SW quadrant of Gonzalo, and some beneficial rains should result. Extreme eastern PR may even get a hurricane gust or three ....
Quoting 603. sar2401:

Death toll in Alabama is already up to one with another severely injured after a tree fell on a house in Walker County, north of Birmingham. This is from the storms coming out of the Gulf, not the main line which is expected later this evening. These storms were not predicted at all but have produced tornadoes and tornado warnings since 2:00 this afternoon. I hope the main MCS, now entering NW Alabama, isn't any worse.


Looks severe. All the best and late good night from Germany!


Click to enlarge.
Quoting 603. sar2401:

Death toll in Alabama is already up to one with another severely injured after a tree fell on a house in Walker County, north of Birmingham. This is from the storms coming out of the Gulf, not the main line which is expected later this evening. These storms were not predicted at all but have produced tornadoes and tornado warnings since 2:00 this afternoon. I hope the main MCS, now entering NW Alabama, isn't any worse.
Sar those storms were predicted, it's a classic case of the warm front out ahead of the cold front that is responsible for producing discrete tornadic cells across areas that saw sunshine which allowed the surface to heat up and the air to rise today.

This was the forecast for today that was issued yesterday afternoon. Look at that warm front all the way up into the Great Lakes.



This map shows the strong warm air advection.

Quoting 573. hurricanes2018:

i had a wind gust up to 100 mph at my house!!
Where is your house located? City and State please. Or are you located in the Islands.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
SE US & NW US are in for a heck of a lot of rain.

Somewhere between 4 and 6 inches of rain in the next 16 days is a heck of a lot? I sure hope we get some of it.
Quoting 621. sar2401:
Somewhere between 4 and 6 inches of rain in the next 16 days is a heck of a lot? I sure hope we get some of it.


For this time in October yes as this is a dry time of year. Nice to see you back on.
Quoting 615. StormTrackerScott:

SE US & NW US are in for a heck of a lot of rain.




Let's hope so. Things are already drying out here, despite such a wet September.
Any predictions for 11 PM? Here's mine.
...GONZALO FURTHER STRENGTHENS AS HE DEPARTS THE LESSER ANTILLES...
11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 13
Location: 18.5°N 63.8°W
Moving: NW at 11 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
Quoting interstatelover7166:
Blog's certainly slow tonight for an intensifying hurricane.
Is not threatening USA, Japan or india, just those little island in the eastern caribbean...
Quoting 624. interstatelover7166:

Any predictions for 11 PM? Here's mine.
...GONZALO FURTHER STRENGTHENS AS HE DEPARTS THE LESSER ANTILLES...
11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 13
Location: 18.5°N 63.8°W
Moving: NW at 11 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph


dont post that, some can mistake it for a real forecast
Quoting 623. HurrMichaelOrl:


Let's hope so. Things are already drying out here, despite such a wet September.


Water levels are very high but my ST Augustine grass is getting a little brown now from all the heat and dry weather lately.
Quoting 616. BahaHurican:

Even on the current track PR is going to see much of the SW quadrant of Gonzalo, and some beneficial rains should result. Extreme eastern PR may even get a hurricane gust or three ....
Eye already at 18n we are not going to get much.
Quoting 621. sar2401:

Somewhere between 4 and 6 inches of rain in the next 16 days is a heck of a lot? I sure hope we get some of it.
Oh C'mon, he painted that with magic markers, and you just bought it! You're slipping SAR.
Any predictions for 11 PM?
Anguilla must be gettin' a beatin'. Anyone know of a station that can report live?
Quoting 524. hurricanes2018:



i starting to see a eye here!


If it weren't for the dry air ahead of the approaching front not only could it be a tad stronger but there would be more rain around the coc
The eye of Gonzalo is becoming faintly visible on infrared imagery. Since the cyclone was still intensifying when recon departed, we should probably expect a 90-100 mph hurricane when recon begins investigating after midnight.



Microwave pass from an hour ago:

Quoting 607. StormTrackerScott:

Strong Debri Ball near Apalachacola, FL.
Did you really see a strong debris ball on the radar near Apalachicola, Scott? I'm not questioning what you are saying and I know about the tornado warning in that area. I was just curious where you saw that?
Quoting 632. interstatelover7166:

Any predictions for 11 PM?

Go fish (after it hit some of the most eastern islands)
Quoting 636. FLWaterFront:
Did you really see a strong debris ball on the radar near Apalachicola, Scott? I'm not questioning what you are saying and I know about the tornado warning in that area. I was just curious where you saw that?


TWC per Jim Cantore about 30 minutes ago. He said NWS mets in Tally were tracking a strong debri ball.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sar those storms were predicted, it's a classic case of the warm front out ahead of the cold front that is responsible for producing discrete tornadic cells across areas that saw sunshine which allowed the surface to heat up and the air to rise today.

This was the forecast for today that was issued yesterday afternoon. Look at that warm front all the way up into the Great Lakes.



This map shows the strong warm air advection.



This was the discussion this morning. Note the predicted time of the activity and it's relation to anything coming straight north from the Gulf. The tornadic storms were further east and south than predicted. It's been going on since early this afternoon. The setup may have been one that favored these kinds of storms but the predictions of placement and timing were incorrect and caught a lot of people off guard.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WERE TO
INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
RESULTING IN A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND
ADJUST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND AS WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40MPH. SOME WEAKENING OF GRADIENT WINDS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT GUSTS AROUND 30MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND EASTWARD TO BLOUNT COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE NORTHWEST IS MOST LIKELY
TO HAVE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. ELSEWHERE...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE TYPICAL TROUBLE
SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE AROUND 12AM CDT...THERE IS NOT ANY CHANGES
TO THE EXPECTED THREATS OR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. AN COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...RIDING ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESTING JUST TO OUR NORTH FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT IS
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC
TO SAY THE LEAST. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF AND
MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...IT SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAT AN
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT WOULD BE MAINTAINED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE
ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE QLCS IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME
FRAME TONIGHT WEST OF I-65. A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES NEAR THE MS/AL STATE LINE BY
00Z UNDER A POCKET OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM. ALONG
WITH A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WIND FIELDS
WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES IF DEEP CONVECTION FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THIS
POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL ON SEVERAL FACTORS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BY 06Z
LAPSE RATES ARE MUCH CLOSER TO MOIST-ADIABATIC...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT EAST OF I-65.


Still needs to work on beauty...but still a threatening storm
I predicted 24 hour ago that this cyclone would pass far to the NE of PR . I also make the prediction of a minimal slight rain.
Quoting 640. JrWeathermanFL:



Still needs to work on beauty...but still a threatening storm

You people and your focus on looks... SMH.


Quoting 623. HurrMichaelOrl:



Let's hope so. Things are already drying out here, despite such a wet September.


It doesn't necessarily mean it is literally dry yet, the sandy soil in Central Florida allows for quick drying of top soil, so it doesn't take long for grass out in open areas to bake and turn yellow in hot weather. However, I assure you that the soil is still plenty wet not far below the surface. My parents just planted a plant in their yard and found that the water was watery and muddy only 6 inches below the surface even thought it looks drier near the surface. The 15 inches of rain they had in September helps for a long time. Of course, they also had over an inch with that last cold front, and had a random shower last Friday good for a quarter of an inch, so 1.5 is decent for mid October rainfall.

Anyways, here in Tallahassee, we've only had 1.4 inches of rain sincw September 10th, its been very dry, however, I've just now started to see some yellowing grass lately. If it was Central Florida the grass would already be brown lol.

However, just because this type of soil allows a long period of dry weather without dry grass, it doesn't mean we aren't dry. Because of this, using whether grass is green or not isn't always a good condition to know soil moisture. Central Florida can get 8 inches of rain in a month, but may have drying grass if it doesn't rain again for a week, but an area with more thick soil like here or up north can have only 2 inches in a month and still have green grass. That's why the top layer of soil and grass isn't a good way to determine how moist things are, or if drought exists.
Any predictions for the 11 pm advisory?
FL Panhandle, Southern AL, and SW GA are in for a long night of severe weather it appears.

Good evening all! I see that Gonzalo is strengthening relatively quickly, it's looking impressive atm. I hope that our friends in the NE Caribbean are faring well. Caribboy could be off for at least a couple of days.
Quoting 625. HuracanTaino:

Is not threatening USA, Japan or india, just those little island in the eastern caribbean...


There could be 30 cyclones in the world, the Moon could be on fire, and the 80s could be back in style; but unless there is a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast or Florida, this place is almost as dead as a rock.
Quoting 642. EpsilonWeather:


You people and your focus on looks... SMH.


Hey, life's an episode of America's Next Top Model
The Squall line front knocked Power out in many parts of Downtown, as close as my corner where a 2 car wreck occurred due to the Traffic Signals being out .


Entergy outage Map





Quoting 648. JrWeathermanFL:



Hey, life's an episode of America's Next Top Model

No. You're MAKING life an episode of America's Next Top Model.
Quoting 647. Astrometeor:



There could be 30 cyclones in the world, the Moon could be on fire, and the 80s could be back in style; but unless there is a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast or Florida, this place is almost as dead as a rock.


If there were 30 worldwide cyclones, I'm pretty sure we'd blow the place up trying to keep track of em
Moon fire isn't really weather, but it would make for a good SciFi movie...
If the 80s were in style again, everyone would be in their bunkers waiting for it all to pass

So your argument is invalid :P
Quoting 638. StormTrackerScott:



TWC per Jim Cantore about 30 minutes ago. He said NWS mets in Tally were tracking a strong debri ball.

The cell designated D7 had a big burst of "something" as it went from tornado to thunderstorm cell just as it went over the county line, according to TLH radar. That area is sparsely populated.
Quoting 633. serialteg:

Anguilla must be gettin' a beatin'. Anyone know of a station that can report live?
The "eye" passed over them earlier today, right?
Quoting 636. FLWaterFront:

Did you really see a strong debris ball on the radar near Apalachicola, Scott? I'm not questioning what you are saying and I know about the tornado warning in that area. I was just curious where you saw that?


0050 4 E SUMATRA LIBERTY FL 3001 8491 ANOTHER TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE SEEN ON TLH DUAL POL DATA AT THIS LOCATION. LIKELY A SEPARATE TORNADO (TAE)

Quoting 644. interstatelover7166:

Any predictions for the 11 pm advisory?


Hurricane Gonzolo
Quoting 638. StormTrackerScott:



TWC per Jim Cantore about 30 minutes ago. He said NWS mets in Tally were tracking a strong debri ball.
Thanks, Scott. I was not watching TWC at that time. Maybe we'll hear some news about that later, considering that a debris ball on radar usually always means extensive damage. This is an odd situation all around. I cannot remember seeing anything quite like it before, with discreet cells located hundreds and hundreds of miles out in front of the main line of convection and moving almost due north, with funnels forming so frequently within those cells and strong ones too. I wonder what all this will mean for the weather over the Florida peninsula tomorrow? The local mets are hinting there may be severe Wx but they have before today been stressing that they expected the main energy with this system to remain well to our north. I wonder if that may be changing?
Gonzalo is taking a pit stop ,same location still in the last hour LRSJU RADAR
Link
Quoting 649. Patrap:

The Squall line front knocked Power out in many parts of Downtown, as close as my corner where a 2 car wreck occurred due to the Traffic Signals being out .


Entergy outage Map








We might have to deal with that Wednesday but likely not as much punch
Via Stormcarib.com

From: "tainos at anguillanet.com"
Date: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 19:44:49 -0400


Pressure nnow at 983.7. Real quite and rain let up. Eye???? Everything in house is soaked. 10.75 in. of rain - most since about 2:00. On;y 15 min. left on laptop and can't get to gen set because of rain. This is getting rally old.
Looking like a nice weekend in FL! :) maybe some 50's for me! :)
I'm just hoping this isn't a Tomas repeat for the carribean.
The CoC has reached 18.5 N in Latitude now.

Gonzalo Has hit a brick wall and stalled!
Quoting 666. Stormlover16:

I'm just hoping this isn't a Tomas repeat for the carribean.
In what way?
Quoting Jedkins01:


0050 4 E SUMATRA LIBERTY FL 3001 8491 ANOTHER TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE SEEN ON TLH DUAL POL DATA AT THIS LOCATION. LIKELY A SEPARATE TORNADO (TAE)



Kind of strange. The NWS employee says he saw a debris ball but the tornado warning is canceled 10 minutes later. I was looking at the radar and couldn't see what looked like a debris ball to to me, but I'm not a professional at such things.

Time: 2014-10-14 T 00:50:00Z UTC
Event: TORNADO
Source: NWS EMPLOYEE
Remark: ANOTHER TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE SEEN ON TLH DUAL POL DATA AT THIS LOCATION. LIKELY A SEPARATE TORNADO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT (01:00:00) MON OCT 13 2014

FLC037-077-140110-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141014T0115Z/
FRANKLIN FL-LIBERTY FL-
900 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY AND EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Quoting 637. juracanpr1:


Go fish (after it hit some of the most eastern islands)



not a fish if it hits land its not a fish be for or after


i hate it when some one used the word fish when a storm hits land after
Quoting 663. stormpetrol:



It's interesting that the steering currents are like that. The NHC must think the cold front will make that ridge break or move out of the way.
Quoting 665. Patrap:



Quoting 662. Patrap:



An eye is forming!
Hurricane 08L
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2014 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 18:15:17 N Lon : 63:23:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 980.1mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.3

Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.2 degrees

************************************************* ***




Quoting 669. stormpetrol:

Gonzalo Has hit a brick wall and stalled!


storm don't trip you know i take you seriously
677. JLPR2
I must admit I'm a little disappointed with Gonzalo missing me by so much, not a fan of the repercussions of hurricane force winds, but barely getting TS wind gusts... it kinda sucks.



Meh
Quoting 673. jdukes:


It's interesting that the steering currents are like that. The NHC must think the cold front will make that ridge break or move out of the way.

You can see a massive trough digging all the way down into the Gulf Coast states on that image. Gonzalo will be recurving will before the United States or even the Bahamas.
Quoting 639. sar2401:



This was the discussion this morning. Note the predicted time of the activity and it's relation to anything coming straight north from the Gulf. The tornadic storms were further east and south than predicted. It's been going on since early this afternoon. The setup may have been one that favored these kinds of storms but the predictions of placement and timing were incorrect and caught a lot of people off guard.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
519 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WERE TO
INCREASE GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
RESULTING IN A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND
ADJUST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND AS WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40MPH. SOME WEAKENING OF GRADIENT WINDS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT GUSTS AROUND 30MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKING AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST AND EASTWARD TO BLOUNT COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITH 1.5 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE NORTHWEST IS MOST LIKELY
TO HAVE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS. ELSEWHERE...HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE TYPICAL TROUBLE
SPOTS AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

SINCE THE LAST UPDATE AROUND 12AM CDT...THERE IS NOT ANY CHANGES
TO THE EXPECTED THREATS OR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. AN COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...RIDING ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESTING JUST TO OUR NORTH FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT IS
DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. TRYING TO PIN DOWN THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC
TO SAY THE LEAST. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF AND
MORE VERTICALLY STACKED...IT SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAT AN
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT WOULD BE MAINTAINED AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE
ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WELL AHEAD OF THE QLCS IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME
FRAME TONIGHT WEST OF I-65. A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCHES NEAR THE MS/AL STATE LINE BY
00Z UNDER A POCKET OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM. ALONG
WITH A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WIND FIELDS
WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES IF DEEP CONVECTION FORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THIS
POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL ON SEVERAL FACTORS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BY 06Z
LAPSE RATES ARE MUCH CLOSER TO MOIST-ADIABATIC...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT EAST OF I-65.
To be fair to the NWS in Birmingham, the threat was still mentioned and depending on which agency you go to for severe weather, they all will have a different analysis of the situation.

Take for example the SPC had a moderate chance of severe weather for the deep south, with the slight chance extending all the way into the Florida Panhandle and remember when this was issued to now, everything is shifting to the east as the SPC puts out this graphic, so I think they did a decent job with this event. I can't find the graphic, but the SPC had a 10% chance hashed in red, which may not have seemed like much, but is a lot for the deep south when dealing with a potential tornado outbreak. Anyways, people had ample time and were forewarn ahead of time, so there should have been no excuse for being caught off guard and getting to shelter and if you have a weather radio that would have been a big help as well. Sorry if this sounds callous, but people need to stop blaming the NWS all the time for not being prepared and taking care of themselves in dangerous weather like this. And don't ever say they weren't predicted at all.

Quoting Astrometeor:


There could be 30 cyclones in the world, the Moon could be on fire, and the 80s could be back in style; but unless there is a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast or Florida, this place is almost as dead as a rock.


Hi Nathan!

Caribbean islanders feel insignificant at times. When focus is placed on the aforementioned area, it's generally negative.

But that's how life is, the world is not level. Anyways, what are your thoughts on Gonzalo?
Quoting 619. HurriHistory:

Where is your house located? City and State please. Or are you located in the Islands.
Sorry to break your concentration, but you are here in fleeting moments. Have you this in your archive? Linda Carson

Posted on May 27, 2014

by Linda Carson

BRADENTON, Fla. -- Braden Castle sits in a beautiful spot near where the Braden River meets the Manatee River. It was built in 1850 and has been the victim of hurricanes, fires, vandals and decay. But parts of it still stand.

A monument to our past and a reminder of those who came before us and what they endured to build the community we have today.

When Joseph Braden lost everything in the bank panic of 1838, he moved to Manatee County to make a new start. "Dr. Braden came here under the Armed Occupation Act. They were giving away 160 acres, so he decided to come here and establish a sugar plantation," says Cathy Slusser, director of Historical Resources for Manatee County Clerk of Courts.

He brought his family, his brother Hector, and slaves to work the plantation. He built a house of tabby (a concoction of lime, sand, crushed shells and water) near the river, so he could ship his crops.
Braden Castle

Then his brother Hector was killed. "He was crossing the Little Manatee River during the hurricane of 1846. He got caught in some quicksand, and the legend says when he was found he was still on top of his horse; both of them drowned with his eyes wide open and his hands still on the reigns.”

In 1856, Native Americans attacked. "Dr. Braden and his family were at supper, and the woman upstairs with the baby said somebody was outside and blew out lights…it was the Indians attacking."

The family survived, but their plantation failed. Sugar cane didn't grow well here, so the Braden moved away and fire swept through the abandoned house.

Then in the 1920’s the Braden Castle became the center of a whole new story when the tin can tourists arrived. "They would come here in their Model-T Fords that they had built a house car on the back of," says Slusser. I have more stories like that about old timey storms.
Quoting 674. jdukes:



An eye is forming!


We've had one for a while. Just not on satellite.

Quoting 666. Stormlover16:

I'm just hoping this isn't a Tomas repeat for the carribean.


Tomas didn't really even impact the islands that Gonzolo is gong through..Gonzolo and Tomas have no relation whatsoever.
Quoting 607. StormTrackerScott:

Strong Debri Ball near Apalachacola, FL.

Where did the NWS use the adjective strong?
Maybe Cantore said it but that's hype, not facts.
The NWS Tallahassee said brief, in a forested area.


Eye is showing on satellite, will probably get covered up again by convection firing on the northern eye wall.
Quoting 673. jdukes:


It's interesting that the steering currents are like that. The NHC must think the cold front will make that ridge break or move out of the way.
This also caught my eye. It implies we may see Gonzalo track a little more west of north than the current track forecast suggests. However, that frontal system is also moving pretty fast and is likely push through fairly soon. Should be interesting to see the "clash of the titans".....
Quoting 677. JLPR2:

I must admit I'm a little disappointed with Gonzalo missing me by so much, not a fan of the repercussions of hurricane force winds, but barely getting TS wind gusts... it kinda sucks.



Meh


Precisely my man. Reminds me that my trainer tomorrow at work told me to come if it all looked clear and good, and if it was, he didn't want me not at work... and boy, is there going to be some good surf!

I really wanted to experience a 983mb bomb in pressure. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't wish ill on anyone, really. But I love hurricanes. I think I'm way past the feeling guilty about it stage and I can move on to the recovering addicts, or the lifelong copers...

It's been a while since I've experienced a really good one. Georges (1998) and Hugo (1989) come to mind.
Quoting 671. sar2401:



Kind of strange. The NWS employee says he saw a debris ball but the tornado warning is canceled 10 minutes later. I was looking at the radar and couldn't see what looked like a debris ball to to me, but I'm not a professional at such things.

Time: 2014-10-14 T 00:50:00Z UTC
Event: TORNADO
Source: NWS EMPLOYEE
Remark: ANOTHER TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE SEEN ON TLH DUAL POL DATA AT THIS LOCATION. LIKELY A SEPARATE TORNADO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT (01:00:00) MON OCT 13 2014

FLC037-077-140110-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141014T0115Z/
FRANKLIN FL-LIBERTY FL-
900 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY AND EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...


Meanwhile, not to be all-Florida-all the time, I have noticed that SE Louisiana has had more rotating storms tonight than I can remember in a while. Hope the folks over there are staying safe and alert tonight. Lots of lightning and thunder there too so I guess they are aware.
TORNADO WARNING
FLC037-077-140245-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0022.141014T0153Z-141014T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
953 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT

* AT 951 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR SUMATRA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KERN...WILMA...CENTRAL CITY...NIXON GARDEN...JENSEN PLACE AND VILAS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2997 8500 2999 8502 3025 8500 3021 8480
2997 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 199DEG 19KT 3000 8498

$$

15-HARRIGAN

Yet again another tornado warning, with multiple reports and more warnings due to an impressive shear profile over the FL Panhandle, with plenty of instability.

This is actually a good time of year to see severe weather around here providing a strong enough system ,as water temps are still warm enough to support plenty of instability, compared to the chilly waters to our south in the Spring that often keep instability too low for significant severe in this area.


The models say the potential weakens some for severe and tornadoes tomorrow as it heads into my area in Tallahassee. Hopefully they're right, all the these tornado warnings are starting to get concerning, the SPC isn't as on this as the local NWS has been which gave stronger warnings, not surprising as this is common with severe events in Florida.

SPC hasn't even issued a watch with severe tornado warnings already issued.
Quoting 688. FLWaterFront:

Meanwhile, not to be all-Florida-all the time, I have noticed that SE Louisiana has had more rotating storms tonight than I can remember in a while. Hope the folks over there are staying safe and alert tonight. Lots of lightning and thunder there too so I guess they are aware.
No sooner do I say that and then yet another confirmed tornado on the ground and, yes, yet another debris ball is seen on radar in Franklin County, Florida. This is within a few miles of where the last one was just an hour or two ago!
Quoting 688. FLWaterFront:

Meanwhile, not to be all-Florida-all the time, I have noticed that SE Louisiana has had more rotating storms tonight than I can remember in a while. Hope the folks over there are staying safe and alert tonight. Lots of lightning and thunder there too so I guess they are aware.
That main line looks like a doozy....


Is Gonzalo growing in size?
Wow, I wasn't expecting a strong storm like Gonzalo at this time of year. Thankfully a trough, with cold boundary going through, will keep Gonzalo away from us. Now, it's only matters of time before Gonzalo becomes a major. I mean, it's pretty obvious Gonzalo is ahead of schedule.
Current Severe Weather Warnings

SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 906 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 906 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 903 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 856 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
TORNADO WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 953 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 847 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 841 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 837 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 837 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
TORNADO WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 830 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 818 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014
Quoting 671. sar2401:



Kind of strange. The NWS employee says he saw a debris ball but the tornado warning is canceled 10 minutes later. I was looking at the radar and couldn't see what looked like a debris ball to to me, but I'm not a professional at such things.

Time: 2014-10-14 T 00:50:00Z UTC
Event: TORNADO
Source: NWS EMPLOYEE
Remark: ANOTHER TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE SEEN ON TLH DUAL POL DATA AT THIS LOCATION. LIKELY A SEPARATE TORNADO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT (01:00:00) MON OCT 13 2014

FLC037-077-140110-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141014T0115Z/
FRANKLIN FL-LIBERTY FL-
900 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY AND EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...




I've worked some volunteer shifts at the NWS, its astounding how much better resolution radar viewing is, you're standard view from the PC can't much what they can see, I know from experience. They have a slew of different dual pole products for dealing with tornado analysis, heavy rainfall, and much more, that we simply don't have from our view in addition to much higher resolution with the AWIPS platform on redhat linux. Therefore, it makes sense.
Quoting 692. BahaHurican:

That main line looks like a doozy....


Is Gonzalo growing in size?


IR based TC Size

Quoting 693. Bluestorm5:

Wow, I wasn't expecting a strong storm like Gonzalo at this time of year. Thankfully a trough, with cold boundary going through, will keep Gonzalo away from us. Now, it's only matters of time before Gonzalo becomes a major. I mean, it's pretty obvious Gonzalo is ahead of schedule.
While being well behind schedule... lol ....

There's another suspect area in the CATL, and several models have been suggesting a storm or even 2 developing down in the SW Caribbean before the end of the month.

I guess that's why there is that secondary peak on the CHART.....
i'm starting to think that tomorrow night we'll see the second major hurricane of 2014 atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 699. pablosyn:

i'm starting to think that tomorrow night we'll see the second major hurricane of 2014 atlantic hurricane season.
Have been expecting it since the HRWF had it developing so rapidly in forecast a few days ago. Whether Gonzalo actually gets there depends on how well it handles the push in front of the trough, but cat three looks very likely, if not low cat 4....
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane 08L
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2014 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 18:15:17 N Lon : 63:23:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 980.1mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.3

Center Temp : -73.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.2 degrees

************************************************* ***




90mph?


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2014 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 18:18:11 N Lon : 63:27:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.2mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 4.2

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.2 degrees

************************************************* ***
000
FXUS62 KTAE 140108
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The forecast still looks like it is mostly on track with no
changes to the current watches or previous thinking below. One
addition is that we are more concerned for isolated tornadoes
across the Florida Panhandle given a mesoscale warm frontal
boundary stretching across the area (east wind at ECP). We have
already seen a few brief tornadoes (confirmed with dual-pol data),
but so far they have been in forested areas with no damage to
structures reported.

A strong frontal system will affect the area over the next 24 hours,
bringing with it a threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall. In
terms of severe weather, the main threat will come late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon in the form of the squall line that
is currently back across the MS/LA area. Straight line winds will be
the main threat, but we cannot rule out a small chance of an
isolated tornado either with rather high low-level shear values in
place. SPC has the entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe
storms. The flash flood threat will come from the potential for
training convection from south to north out ahead of the main squall
line. WPC has roughly the same area as the flash flood watch
outlooked for a moderate risk of excessive rainfall.
Radar out of San Juan indicating a pretty intense eyewall.


And there went the eye..
And there went i to sleep..
Quoting pablosyn:
i'm starting to think that tomorrow night we'll see the second major hurricane of 2014 atlantic hurricane season.


What are the latest developments with the drought affecting Sao Paulo?


dang
11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 13
Location: 18.7°N 63.4°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

The eye of Gonzalo moved just north of St. Maarten and over Anguilla
earlier this evening. St. Maarten reported a peak 2-minute wind of
55 kt and a gust of 65 kt with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Data
from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier indicated peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of around 85 kt, which support an intensity of 75
kt for this advisory. This intensity is also supported by the latest
Dvorak classification of T4.5 from TAFB. The next Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 0600 UTC.

Gonzalo appears to be poised to intensify, perhaps rapidly, in the
next day or so. The inner-core features are quite distinct in
recent microwave imagery and a warm spot has recently developed in
infrared imagery with a more symmetric cloud pattern. Given these
trends and the overall favorable environment, the intensity
forecast has been adjusted upward and is close to the the SHIPS
model on the high end of the intensity guidance through the first 48
hours, showing Gonzalo becoming a major hurricane in about 36 hours.
As Gonzalo gains latitude later in the period, southwesterly shear
ahead of a mid-latitude trough and cooler SSTs should result in
gradual weakening.

The eye of Gonzalo is now evident in WSR-88D imagery from San Juan,
and the initial motion estimate is 315/10. Overall, the track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the hurricane will
move northwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge and
then accelerate northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude
trough moving off the east coast of the United States. The new NHC
track forecast has been shifted a little to the right in the first
48 hours due to the initial position and motion and an adjustment
and toward the latest multi-model consensus. Beyond that time, the
new NHC forecast is largely and update of the previous one and is
close to but a bit slower than a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,
especially by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.7N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.8N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.5N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 23.1N 67.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 24.5N 68.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 27.3N 67.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 31.5N 65.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 37.0N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

NNNN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST MON OCT 13 2014

...TROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...
Quoting 676. serialteg:



storm don't trip you know i take you seriously


was just temporary probably to commence more NNW/N movement as apparently according to radar it has done within the past hour!
Quoting 704. Hurricane1216:

Radar out of San Juan indicating a pretty intense eyewall.



And its out of radar range too, that's serious eyewall convection, a sign of solid intensification in addition to growing organization and consolidation of the eyewall and clearing eye. What's strange is that Gonzalo has developed a larger eye after having a partial eyewall earlier that was much stronger, rather than contracting.
Quoting FLWaterFront:
No sooner do I say that and then yet another confirmed tornado on the ground and, yes, yet another debris ball is seen on radar in Franklin County, Florida. This is within a few miles of where the last one was just an hour or two ago!
Something strange is happening down there. If the dual pol radar is right (and I've yet to hear of any ground truth about these tornadoes except one report of some trees down), this would be the fourth tornado to occur in almost exactly the same place in the last 2.5 hours. There have been no other tornadoes reported anywhere else in the Panhandle, SW GA, or SE AL. The area is very close to the coast. I wonder of these could be waterspouts, developing in the Gulf and then moving on shore and becoming tornadic? This type of pattern is one I've never seen further inland in the absence of any other tornadic activity.
Quoting 703. Jedkins01:

000
FXUS62 KTAE 140108
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The forecast still looks like it is mostly on track with no
changes to the current watches or previous thinking below. One
addition is that we are more concerned for isolated tornadoes
across the Florida Panhandle given a mesoscale warm frontal
boundary stretching across the area (east wind at ECP). We have
already seen a few brief tornadoes (confirmed with dual-pol data),
but so far they have been in forested areas with no damage to
structures reported.

A strong frontal system will affect the area over the next 24 hours,
bringing with it a threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall. In
terms of severe weather, the main threat will come late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon in the form of the squall line that
is currently back across the MS/LA area. Straight line winds will be
the main threat, but we cannot rule out a small chance of an
isolated tornado either with rather high low-level shear values in
place. SPC has the entire area outlooked in a slight risk for severe
storms. The flash flood threat will come from the potential for
training convection from south to north out ahead of the main squall
line. WPC has roughly the same area as the flash flood watch
outlooked for a moderate risk of excessive rainfall.

Jedkins, you said earlier that the official forecast is for Tallahassee to be out of the severe threat area for later tonight and tomorrow. Well, this is one time when I think the official forecast has failed, not only for the Florida panhandle but numerous areas well to the east of the main squall line which runs N to S all across the East Central CONUS. The SPC seems to have completely missed this unusual discrete cell formation that is well ahead of the main action and deep within the warm sector. Now we are even getting fast developing and fast-moving showers along the coast in the Tampa Bay area, well to the south and east of even the central Florida panhandle region that is now getting rotating storms. So far, all of those cells have been over the Apalachicola National Forest, where no one lives, for the most part. But later on tonight, that may all change. Where is the SPC on all this tonight? Are they asleep out there in OK?
Quoting 671. sar2401:



Kind of strange. The NWS employee says he saw a debris ball but the tornado warning is canceled 10 minutes later. I was looking at the radar and couldn't see what looked like a debris ball to to me, but I'm not a professional at such things.

Time: 2014-10-14 T 00:50:00Z UTC
Event: TORNADO
Source: NWS EMPLOYEE
Remark: ANOTHER TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE SEEN ON TLH DUAL POL DATA AT THIS LOCATION. LIKELY A SEPARATE TORNADO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT (01:00:00) MON OCT 13 2014

FLC037-077-140110-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-141014T0115Z/
FRANKLIN FL-LIBERTY FL-
900 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY AND EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...




The debris ball statement from the NWS was not referencing what we see on our conventional loops. Nominally when we see a debris ball at home, on our computers we would see only if there is a large amount of debris thrown up into the air. This type of signature is almost always a sure bet a tornado is on the ground causing some type of damage.

Example.

[URL=http://s1250.photobucket.com/user/emcf30/med ia/debrisball.jpg.html][IMG]http://i1250.photobuck et.com/albums/hh536/emcf30/debrisball.jpg[/IMG][/U RL]

What the NWS looks at now, with the Duel Pole Radar is much more complex. They are able to pick up on much smaller scale event by looking at the Correlation Coefficient and pick up small amounts of debris lifted up. as with tonight in the Panhandle, such a signature was picked up. It is becoming more common now to issue a confirmed Tornado using this method even though there is no confirmed sighting.

[URL=http://s1250.photobucket.com/user/emcf30/med ia/6a0148c78b79ee970c019103f183e7970c-.png.html][I MG]http://i1250.photobucket.com/albums/hh536/emcf3 0/6a0148c78b79ee970c019103f183e7970c-.png[/IMG][/U RL]

The example above is much larger than the two tonight in the Panhandle which were very weak and only lasted for a couple of minute. They did match up with the velocity mode of the radar so that is how they confirmed. Area was very rural. Modern Technology
Quoting 714. FLWaterFront:

Jedkins, you said earlier that the official forecast is for Tallahassee to be out of the severe threat area for later tonight and tomorrow. Well, this is one time when I think the official forecast has failed, not only for the Florida panhandle but numerous areas well to the east of the main squall line which runs N to S all across the East Central CONUS. The SPC seems to have completely missed this unusual discrete cell formation that is well ahead of the main action and deep within the warm sector. Now we are even getting fast developing and fast-moving showers along the coast in the Tampa Bay area, well to the south and east of even the central Florida panhandle region that is now getting rotating storms. So far, all of those cells have been over the Apalachicola National Forest, where no one lives, for the most part. But later on tonight, that may all change. Where is the SPC on all this tonight? Are they asleep out there in OK?


Are u actually serious with this.

www.spc.noaa.gov
Quoting 714. FLWaterFront:

Jedkins, you said earlier that the official forecast is for Tallahassee to be out of the severe threat area for later tonight and tomorrow. Well, this is one time when I think the official forecast has failed, not only for the Florida panhandle but numerous areas well to the east of the main squall line which runs N to S all across the East Central CONUS. The SPC seems to have completely missed this unusual discrete cell formation that is well ahead of the main action and deep within the warm sector. Now we are even getting fast developing and fast-moving showers along the coast in the Tampa Bay area, well to the south and east of even the central Florida panhandle region that is now getting rotating storms. So far, all of those cells have been over the Apalachicola National Forest, where no one lives, for the most part. But later on tonight, that may all change. Where is the SPC on all this tonight? Are they asleep out there in OK?
Boy there seems to be a lot of bashing and irrational criticism going on about the SPC tonight. No wonder you guys don't work for them. And no they did not miss any of this severe weather, there is a certain criteria that must be met to issue a severe thunderstorm watch and a tornado watch you guys need to get over it about them failing to see the potential risk of severe weather, SPC saw this, and that is why they issued the slight risk of severe weather and the hashed areas keep advancing towards the East. You guys need to look at the damn graphics for once and understand what they represent before resorting to finger pointing. Unbelievable and unwarranted you all should be ashamed of yourselves. Yet you are being hypocritical and still posting their discussion and graphics.

I still think 91L will develop into Hanna. I give it 30/40
It appears to be organizing to me.
Quoting 716. Patrap:


My point is why haven't they issued a tornado watch further to the East? Storms are now rapidly developing in the Atlanta area. These Franklin and Liberty county, Florida tornadoes have been occurring for almost three hours now in an area that is not included in any tornado watch, as of yet. Some are suggesting that they are somehow bogus tornado returns on the radar. If so, we should be informed of that. Otherwise, it would seem to me that the SPC should issue tornado watches much further to the east of where they are right now.
Nuff said. Point made. No more arguments on this matter, please.

CMC develops 91L
Quoting 714. FLWaterFront:

Jedkins, you said earlier that the official forecast is for Tallahassee to be out of the severe threat area for later tonight and tomorrow. Well, this is one time when I think the official forecast has failed, not only for the Florida panhandle but numerous areas well to the east of the main squall line which runs N to S all across the East Central CONUS. The SPC seems to have completely missed this unusual discrete cell formation that is well ahead of the main action and deep within the warm sector. Now we are even getting fast developing and fast-moving showers along the coast in the Tampa Bay area, well to the south and east of even the central Florida panhandle region that is now getting rotating storms. So far, all of those cells have been over the Apalachicola National Forest, where no one lives, for the most part. But later on tonight, that may all change. Where is the SPC on all this tonight? Are they asleep out there in OK?


Actually, the severe weather threat wasn't expected to completely go away by the time it gets further east into Tallahassee, the models do suggest some risk still, and the SPC does have a slight risk for us tomorrow, although they emphasize further north of here. Deep convection will feed off the higher instability and more moisture rich air off the gulf, but dynamics will be stronger to the north as the low pulls more northeast and weakens a bit, its a tough call.

The tornadoes have developed in Florida due to very high theta-e values pooling along a warm front, along the warm front there is low level shear which is allowing for rotating storms.

Again, the SPC does have a slight risk for us tomorrow, but they did to some degree miss us tonight with this tornado threat right now, I suspect it has to do with the fact that the SPC is national forecasting center, and thus its easier for them to miss mesocale changes that don't fit the large scale model. However, these mesocale blips that change the forecast are common along the gulf coast and Florida in the subtropical zones.


The SPC is valuable though, so I don't want to be an SPC basher lol. The thing is, because they are national forecasting office, its hard for them to pick up on mesocale changes not shown by model guidance, they also often aren't aware of local features, such as how shear is enhanced along the west coast of Florida when the area is on the east and northeast quadrant of a cyclone.

That's why its good to pair SPC discussions with local NWS offices to get full idea what's happening, the local NWS offices are designed to do what the SPC can't, both are equally valuable though. For example, the Tallahassee office here mentioned some concern about possible enhancement of shear along the warm front earlier today, that is indeed happening.


I was kinda hoping Ana would hold off on forming until next year so we'd have the possibility of having Ana in both the Atlantic and Pacific at the same time, but owell.

Quoting 717. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Boy there seems to be a lot of bashing and irrational criticism going on about the SPC tonight. No wonder you guys don't work for them. And no they did not miss any of this severe weather, there is a certain criteria that must be met to issue a severe thunderstorm watch and a tornado watch you guys need to get over it about them failing to see the potential risk of severe weather, SPC saw this, and that is why they issued the slight risk of severe weather and the hashed areas keep advancing towards the East. You guys need to look at the damn graphics for once and understand what they represent before resorting to finger pointing. Unbelievable and unwarranted you all should be ashamed of yourselves. Yet you are being hypocritical and still posting their discussion and graphics.
Sorry, but discussing things on a weather blog is not something that I consider to be a critical-enough activity to be "ashamed of (myself)" if and when I get something wrong or express what turns out to be an inaccurate opinion. If I were working at the SPC and earning the salary that they earn, I doubt that I would lose any sleep over anyone criticizing my/our work on this blog. Just sayin'
Quoting 707. Jedkins01:



dang

Jed..could I get a link for that.
Quoting 718. HurricaneAndre:


I still think 91L will develop into Hanna. I give it 30/40
It appears to be organizing to me.



you are wish casting on 91L

the nhc gave it 10/10
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Fay and is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gonzalo,
located over the northern Leeward Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds affecting this
system are forecast to strengthen further during the next few days,
and development of this low into a tropical cyclone is unlikely.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


read the the blod part on what the nhc said about it
Quoting 719. FLWaterFront:

My point is why haven't they issued a tornado watch further to the East? Storms are now rapidly developing in the Atlanta area. These Franklin and Liberty county, Florida tornadoes have been occurring for almost three hours now in an area that is not included in any tornado watch, as of yet. Some are suggesting that they are somehow bogus tornado returns on the radar. If so, we should be informed of that. Otherwise, it would seem to me that the SPC should issue tornado watches much further to the east of where they are right now.


Anyone who thinks they are "bogus" radar returns evidently don't understand radar, just saying :)

Eastern part of 91L has some very good winds with it. :) 30kts.
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
500 PM HST MON OCT 13 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER /LLCC/ OF THE CYCLONE IS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAD BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER IT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH HELPED WITH THE DETERMINATION THAT THE
POSITION ESTIMATE USED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS TOO FAR TO THE
WEST...PROMPTING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE
RECENT IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND PHFO...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IS GIVEN THE HAWAIIAN NAME
ANA.

WITH THE REPOSITIONING...INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE
315/06 KT...WITH THE STORM BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. A WESTWARD-MOVING CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL MOVE STEADILY WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...KEEPING THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...WITH A
RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD MOTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH ALOFT PASSES BY
TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS THROUGH DAY 3...AND LIES
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH
IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT BASED ON TODAY/S DEVELOPMENTS. ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 THE GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE PASSING TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE RIDGE. THE
UPDATED FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS...AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
TVCN CONSENSUS.

INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THEN REMAIN
LIGHT. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE...WITH ANA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 12.9N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 13.3N 143.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 144.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 14.2N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 14.5N 146.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 15.2N 148.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 18.0N 152.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
Quoting 725. Abacosurf:


Jed..could I get a link for that.


SPC meso-analysis page, its great for analyzing a lot different parameters:

Link
Quoting Tazmanian:



you are wish casting on 91L

the nhc gave it 10/10
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Fay and is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gonzalo,
located over the northern Leeward Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Strong upper-level winds affecting this
system are forecast to strengthen further during the next few days,
and development of this low into a tropical cyclone is unlikely.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


read the the blod part on what the nhc said about it
How did you know I was wishcasting. Lol. :) ;)
Anyways, good job HWRF!



18z HWRF from yesterday at 33 hours.

2.1 What is a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch?
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch outlines an area where an organized episode of hail 1 inch diameter or larger and/or damaging thunderstorm winds are expected during a three to eight hour period. A Tornado Watch includes the large hail and damaging wind threats, as well as the possibility of multiple tornadoes. Typical watches cover about 25,000 square miles, or about half the size of Iowa. Click here to view a video clip on What is a Watch?

Link

img src="">
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyways, good job HWRF!



HWRF you deserve a cookie.


It this sticks, bermuda might actually take a direct hit from gonzalo or at least pass pretty close. Igor came within roughly 40 miles back in 2010.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I was kinda hoping Ana would hold off on forming until next year so we'd have the possibility of having Ana in both the Atlantic and Pacific at the same time, but owell.



Same. We were so close. :(
Quoting 730. Jedkins01:



SPC meso-analysis page, its great for analyzing a lot different parameters:

Link

Thank you sir!
Quoting 732. CybrTeddy:

Anyways, good job HWRF!



18z HWRF from yesterday at 33 hours.

The much improved HWRF handling intensity quite well.
Radar's estimating winds well over 75kts in Gonzalo's northern eyewall.
Quoting 717. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Boy there seems to be a lot of bashing and irrational criticism going on about the SPC tonight. No wonder you guys don't work for them. And no they did not miss any of this severe weather, there is a certain criteria that must be met to issue a severe thunderstorm watch and a tornado watch you guys need to get over it about them failing to see the potential risk of severe weather, SPC saw this, and that is why they issued the slight risk of severe weather and the hashed areas keep advancing towards the East. You guys need to look at the damn graphics for once and understand what they represent before resorting to finger pointing. Unbelievable and unwarranted you all should be ashamed of yourselves. Yet you are being hypocritical and still posting their discussion and graphics.


That's what mesoscale discussions are for. They issue these with watch probabilities. For example, there could be an isolated tornado threat and there would be a 20% chance of a watch. There's a severe threat, but not widespread enough to warrant a watch.
Quoting 722. Jedkins01:



The tornadoes have developed in Florida due to very high theta-e values pooling along a warm front, along the warm front there is low level shear which is allowing for rotating storms.


I'm seeing us well embedded within the warm sector, well south of the warm front. The low-level shear appears to be a product of low-level confluence ahead of the cold front due to a strong west Atlantic surface high.
Quoting emcf30:


The debris ball statement from the NWS was not referencing what we see on our conventional loops. Nominally when we see a debris ball at home, on our computers we would see only if there is a large amount of debris thrown up into the air. This type of signature is almost always a sure bet a tornado is on the ground causing some type of damage.

Example.

[URL=http://s1250.photobucket.com/user/emcf30/med ia/debrisball.jpg.html][IMG]http://i1250.photobuck et.com/albums/hh536/emcf30/debrisball.jpg[/IMG][/U RL]

What the NWS looks at now, with the Duel Pole Radar is much more complex. They are able to pick up on much smaller scale event by looking at the Correlation Coefficient and pick up small amounts of debris lifted up. as with tonight in the Panhandle, such a signature was picked up. It is becoming more common now to issue a confirmed Tornado using this method even though there is no confirmed sighting.

[URL=http://s1250.photobucket.com/user/emcf30/med ia/6a0148c78b79ee970c019103f183e7970c-.png.html][I MG]http://i1250.photobucket.com/albums/hh536/emcf3 0/6a0148c78b79ee970c019103f183e7970c-.png[/IMG][/U RL]

The example above is much larger than the two tonight in the Panhandle which were very weak and only lasted for a couple of minute. They did match up with the velocity mode of the radar so that is how they confirmed. Area was very rural. Modern Technology
I understand all that. What seemed unusual to me was a tornado on the ground with a debris signature when the warning was canceled 10 minutes after the observation was made. It may have been a very small tornado that lifted quickly but it's something I don't commonly see.
Quoting 719. FLWaterFront:

My point is why haven't they issued a tornado watch further to the East? Storms are now rapidly developing in the Atlanta area. These Franklin and Liberty county, Florida tornadoes have been occurring for almost three hours now in an area that is not included in any tornado watch, as of yet. Some are suggesting that they are somehow bogus tornado returns on the radar. If so, we should be informed of that. Otherwise, it would seem to me that the SPC should issue tornado watches much further to the east of where they are right now.


See mesoscale discussion 1885. There's an isolated tornado given the shear and in place, but it's mainly a damaging wind threat. Dewpoints are also in the 60s ahead of the line.
Quoting 680. nigel20:



Hi Nathan!

Caribbean islanders feel insignificant at times. When focus is placed on the aforementioned area, it's generally negative.

But that's how life is, the world is not level. Anyways, what are your thoughts on Gonzalo?


Hi Nigel! All anyone over here ever thinks of the Caribbean is cruises and vacations. Just like how the US thinks of Florida as oranges and Disneyland. :P

Gonzalo seems to be strengthening a little quicker than forecast now, so maybe a high-end Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4. :)


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2014 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 12:52:15 N Lon : 142:27:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1004.5mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.7

Center Temp : -51.7C Cloud Region Temp : -47.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 15km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.4 degrees

************************************************* ***
747. SLU
Quoting 722. Jedkins01:



Actually, the severe weather threat wasn't expected to completely go away by the time it gets further east into Tallahassee, the models do suggest some risk still, and the SPC does have a slight risk for us tomorrow, although they emphasize further north of here. Deep convection will feed off the higher instability and more moisture rich air off the gulf, but dynamics will be stronger to the north as the low pulls more northeast and weakens a bit, its a tough call.

The tornadoes have developed in Florida due to very high theta-e values pooling along a warm front, along the warm front there is low level shear which is allowing for rotating storms.

Again, the SPC does have a slight risk for us tomorrow, but they completely missed us tonight with this tornado threat right now, I suspect the problem lies with the fact that the SPC is national forecasting center, and thus its easier for them to miss mesocale changes that don't fit the large scale model. However, these mesocale blips that change the forecast are common along the gulf coast and Florida in the subtropical zones.

It reminds me what happened with Debby, there was a string of tornado warnings issued by the NWS is Ruskin with multiple tornado damage reports and even sadly a tornado death before the SPC even had a tornado watch. The reason why was that they didn't notice the mesoscale evolution of how the deep convective band on the right side of Debby got sheared off into the west coast of Florida. However, cyclonic flow produces a lot of low level shear along the west coast of Florida due to how the vectors line up with the coast.


The SPC is valuable though, so I don't want to just be an SPC basher lol. The thing is, because they are national forecasting office, its hard for them to pick up on mesocale changes not shown by model guidance, they also often aren't aware of local features, such as how shear is enhanced along the west coast of Florida when the area is on the east and northeast quadrant of a cyclone.

That's why its good to pair SPC discussions with local NWS offices to get full idea what's happening, the local NWS offices are designed to do what the SPC can't, both are equally valuable though. For example, the Tallahassee office here mentioned some concern about possible enhancement of shear along the warm front earlier today, that is indeed happening.
We had severe wind damage in my immediate neighborhood during TS Debby. It was hard to know for sure if it was a small and brief EF-0 tornado that caused it or just a microburst of straight-line winds. It sounded like a tornado when it was approaching though and so I took cover inside my house. The two houses immediately to my west both lost large trees and both suffered major roof damage. I only had slight roof damage and lost one window on the west side of my house.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Hi Nigel! All anyone over here ever thinks of the Caribbean is cruises and vacations. Just like how the US thinks of Florida as oranges and Disneyland. :P

Gonzalo seems to be strengthening a little quicker than forecast now, so maybe a high-end Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4. :)


Lol! Yes, maybe Gonzalo will be the strongest storm of the season; conditions are quite favorable.
Quoting Levi32:


I'm seeing us well embedded within the warm sector, well south of the warm front. The low-level shear appears to be a product of low-level confluence ahead of the cold front due to a strong west Atlantic surface high.
Looking at the radar now, it looks much different than I thought it would this morning. Instead of this being a west to east MCS, it appears to be almost completely a south to north LLJ, with the storms aligned to the jet. It appears to my untrained eye that the low is beginning to close off and cut off north of us while the entire MCS is being caught up in the LLJ and is moving rapidly north. The MCS is barely moving east, if moving east at all. While we in SE AL have only gotten a few light rain showers, a little further west and north has had 2-3 inches of rain, some pretty strong storms, and areal flood advisories. The front itself is still back by the LA/MS border. It doesn't look like a normal MCS/frontal passage to me.
Quoting 745. Astrometeor:



Hi Nigel! All anyone over here ever thinks of the Caribbean is cruises and vacations. Just like how the US thinks of Florida as oranges and Disneyland. :P

Gonzalo seems to be strengthening a little quicker than forecast now, so maybe a high-end Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4. :)
Hey Astro I haven't seen you on in awhile, how's everything going with you buddy? Keeping Max out of trouble? :P Oh I think you meant Disneyworld. Not to be confused with Disneyland in California. Everything else sounds about right, you can also add nice, white sandy beaches in there as well.
It appears very much that given the current track and intensity of Hurricane Gonzalo that there's some imitation by this system of T.S./Hurricane Earl in 2010 (History repeats itself...). In fact many of the same areas have been impacted and in similar ways so far. Hopefully no loss of life will occur this time around.

Let's All continue to keep safe this Hurricane season. God Bless!
Quoting FLWaterFront:
My point is why haven't they issued a tornado watch further to the East? Storms are now rapidly developing in the Atlanta area. These Franklin and Liberty county, Florida tornadoes have been occurring for almost three hours now in an area that is not included in any tornado watch, as of yet. Some are suggesting that they are somehow bogus tornado returns on the radar. If so, we should be informed of that. Otherwise, it would seem to me that the SPC should issue tornado watches much further to the east of where they are right now.
I don't know if "some" was referring to me, but I'm certainly not suggesting they were bogus radar returns. I am sitting here looking at my soon-to-be-replaced PWS that says it's -40 and snowing, so equipment does sometimes malfunction. My question was why would four apparently small tornadoes occur over 2.5 hours in almost exactly the same location with no other severe weather within at least a couple of hundred miles? BTW, it looks like the SPC just did extend a tornado watch to cover me in Barbour County AL but not the counties in the Panhandle where the four tornadoes already happened. Link



EDIT: It does cover the two counties in Florida that had the tornadoes earlier. It was hard to see on the polygon but I can see it on the map. It's probably safe bet to issue a watch three hours and forty-five minutes after the first tornado was reported though.
Quoting 751. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey Astro I haven't seen you on in awhile, how's everything going with you buddy? Keeping Max out of trouble? :P Oh I think you meant Disneyworld. Not to be confused with Disneyland in California. Everything else sounds about right, you can also add nice, white sandy beaches in there as well.


Ah, yea...nice catch Caleb. I have been extremely busy with college. I don't have a heavy workload, but I've been hanging around my new friends a lot, so that's kept me away from my computer. Hard to keep Max out of trouble, lol, although you should go stop by his blog. His first name isn't actually Max, only I and a couple others here knew that before his most recent blog. :)

I love Emerald Coast down by Destin, FL. Those are my favorite beaches.
Brand new tornado watch:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 700 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
Quoting 742. Levi32:



I'm seeing us well embedded within the warm sector, well south of the warm front. The low-level shear appears to be a product of low-level confluence ahead of the cold front due to a strong west Atlantic surface high.


Yeah you're right the actual warm front is well to the north, in fact its up to near the great lakes region, but the instability gradient and the the low level shear from that is somewhat like a pseudo warm front. Maybe calling it an actual warm front wasn't the best wording, lol.

The NWS at Tallahassee is calling it a mesoscale warm front though, so that's what I'm getting at. This is pretty common along the gulf coast even if a warm front isn't present for there to be warm front-like characteristics ahead of cold fronts/approaching cyclones. It tends to lead to very heavy events along the gulf coast. That's also why the Flash flood watch is present,
NHC, I have a question, why does this only deserve only 10/10. I think it should be code orange both ways.
At least where I'm at in middle TN, the squall line has fizzled some. I haven't seen any lightning in a while now, so I don't expect severe weather out of this other than maybe some flooding. All the action is moving south now where that new watch is.
Gonzalo's outflow is impressive to say the least.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Gonzalo's outflow is impressive to say the least.

Yep, I think it' say two now, what do you think.
Quoting 760. HurricaneAndre:

Yep, I think it' say two now, what do you think.

Still think it's in the 90-100 mph range.
7.4Mag. quake reported off shore of El Salvador. Felt throughout Central America, no damage reports yet.
Quoting 762. originalLT:

7.4Mag. quake reported off shore of El Salvador. Felt throughout Central America, no damage reports yet.
Yep the south of the country feel it pretty rough.
Man.... not a single drop of rain here.... so quiet....


Universities in the metro area will have class... no suspention up to now

Quoting 757. HurricaneAndre:

NHC, I have a question, why does this only deserve only 10/10. I think it should be code orange both ways.



The 0z TWO was made before the current organization.
Quoting 758. Huracan94:

At least where I'm at in middle TN, the squall line has fizzled some. I haven't seen any lightning in a while now, so I don't expect severe weather out of this other than maybe some flooding. All the action is moving south now where that new watch is.

Actually, I take back what I said earlier. Looks like a new squall line may be forming stretching from Chattanooga northward to Putnam county. I'm keeping my eye on this one.
Remember when this hurricane season started and we had that series of strong quakes on the pacific side of Central America? I remember thinking that the cool water pumped up to the surface by those quakes would hinder El Nino development...Y'all thought I had all kinds of the crazies!
SAN SALVADOR, Oct 14 (Reuters) - A magnitude 7.3 quake struck late on Monday off the coast of El Salvador and was felt across Central America, but there were no immediate reports of damage.

El Salvador's emergency services urged people living near the coast to move inland after placing a tsunami alert in effect. Nonetheless, they said via their Twitter account that coastal areas appeared calm.

Emergency services in neighboring Honduras and Guatemala also said they had no early reports of damage or injuries.

The quake struck 42 miles (67 km) west-southwest of Jiquilillo off the coast of San Salvador and Nicaragua, the U.S. Geological Survey said. It said the quake hit at a depth of 25 miles (40 km).

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center at one point warned of possible tsunami waves in the region but then said there was no threat.

(Reporting by Nelson Renteria and Gabriel Stargardter; Editing by Simon Gardner and Kieran Murray)

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2 791878/Magnitude-7-4-quake-strikes-El-Salvador.htm l#ixzz3G5n6YBQ5
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Quoting 768. RyanSperrey:

Remember when this hurricane season started and we had that series of strong quakes on the pacific side of Central America? I remember thinking that the cool water pumped up to the surface by those quakes would hinder El Nino development...Y'all thought I had all kinds of the crazies!


Uh... wind action causes cold water upwelling. Not earthquakes.
It will be interesting to track this second potential threat to Hawaii this year with Ana.
Im in Honduras, i felt the earthquake.
Post-frontal CAA is awesome, btw. I'll start complaining about the cold by December or January like I did last year, but the transition between summer and fall is always my favorite. No hate here.
Recon descending into the center...

Quoting 774. KoritheMan:

Post-frontal CAA is awesome, btw. I'll start complaining about the cold by December or January like I did last year, but the transition between summer and fall is always my favorite. No hate here.


What's CAA?

"start complaining about the cold". It doesn't get cold down where you are.
Well something we all will be ready to watch...



A comet will give Mars a historically close shave next weekend, and NASA aims to be ready for the dramatic cosmic event.

The space agency has already trained a number of its science assets on Comet Siding Spring, which will zoom within 87,000 miles (139,500 kilometers) of Mars on Oct. 19 — about one-third the distance between Earth and the moon. And NASA's fleet of Red Planet orbiters and rovers will be watching on the big day, studying the comet and its influence on Mars' atmosphere.
"On October 19, we're going to observe an event that happens maybe once every million years," Jim Green, director of NASA's planetary science division, said during a news conference today (Oct. 9). "We're getting ready for a spectacular set of observations." [See photos of Comet Siding Spring]
Quoting 770. KoritheMan:



Uh... wind action causes cold water upwelling. Not earthquakes.
I am not taking sides in this particular one, but to say that would be wrong. Geological forces can and do change water temps at all levels. You would have to be nuts to try to prove it though. Even with an army of ROVS you would be risking the lives of your crew, thousands in fuel, food, passports, ammunition, and then to calculate when such an event might occur. Best bet is to locate a known sub sea rift and employ sunken buoys at marked depths.
Quoting 776. Astrometeor:



What's CAA?

"start complaining about the cold". It doesn't get cold down where you are.


WAA = Warm air advection
CAA = Cold air advection

Just a fancy way of saying synoptic southerly and northwesterly flow, basically.
Quoting 778. Pallis1:

I am not taking sides in this particular one, but to say that would be wrong. Geological forces can and do change water temps at all levels. You would have to be nuts to try to prove it though. Even with an army of ROVS you would be risking the lives of your crew, thousands in fuel, food, passports, ammunition, and then to calculate when such an event might occur. Best bet is to locate a known sub sea rift and employ sunken buoys at marked depths.


Seismic activity raises the seafloor, but I've never read any material suggesting it can do enough of it to preclude El Nino.
Hawaii has What? an Invest over it?

Quoting 773. Salvajega:

Im in Honduras, i felt the earthquake.
EEEEh, stay away from wet muddy hills my friend. Best of luck to you and yours.
Quoting 782. sunlinepr:

Hawaii has What? an Invest over it?




Upper low with perhaps a weak low-level reflection.
Looks like recon is finding a steadily strengthening storm. Flight level winds near 100 knots and SFMR around 83-90 knots

Pressures down to 975

Quoting 780. KoritheMan:



WAA = Warm air advection
CAA = Cold air advection

Just a fancy way of saying synoptic southerly and northwesterly flow, basically.


I still have no idea what any of that is. :(
Quoting 787. Astrometeor:



I still have no idea what any of that is. :(


Southerly flow transports warm maritime air northward towards land, while northwesterly flow funnels dry (and in this case cold, hence the term CAA) continental air toward land areas from north to south.
Quoting 786. Stormchaser2007:

Looks like recon is finding a steadily strengthening storm. Flight level winds near 100 knots and SFMR around 83-90 knots

Pressures down to 975




Extrap. Sfc. Press: 970.9 mb (28.67 inHg)
Quoting 788. KoritheMan:



Southerly flow transports warm maritime air northward towards land, while northwesterly flow funnels dry (and in this case cold, hence the term CAA) continental air toward land areas from north to south.


Why do you like CAA so much?


Some storms-a-brewin'
Quoting 787. Astrometeor:



I still have no idea what any of that is. :(
You'll deal with WAA and CAA a lot in meteorological analysis classes. You know about all of those cold air coming in from northwest behind cold fronts (hence Kori's reference to northwesterly flow)? That's CAA.
Quoting 793. Bluestorm5:

You'll deal with WAA and CAA a lot in meteorological analysis classes. You know about all of those cold air coming in from northwest behind cold fronts? That's CAA.


Oh. Then I hate that stuff. Doesn't give me anything except less snow and more nosebleeds.

I gotta go to bed, actually tired for once. (my sleep schedule is so screwed right now, lol)
Quoting 774. KoritheMan:

Post-frontal CAA is awesome, btw. I'll start complaining about the cold by December or January like I did last year, but the transition between summer and fall is always my favorite. No hate here.


Agree with you!
90 knots...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 140556
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS GONZALO STRONGER...
...EYE PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 64.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
000
URNT12 KNHC 140557
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 14/05:26:50Z
B. 19 deg 04 min N
063 deg 54 min W
C. 700 mb 2899 m
D. 92 kt
E. 354 deg 8 nm
F. 086 deg 100 kt
G. 344 deg 11 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 11 C / 3045 m
J. 19 C / 3038 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C26
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0408A GONZALO OB 15
MAX FL WIND 100 KT 344 / 11 NM 05:23:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 030 / 11 KT
;
Quoting 796. Stormchaser2007:

90 knots...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 140556
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS GONZALO STRONGER...
...EYE PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 64.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

Might become a cat 4 before it pounds Bermuda. I find it weird to not have a hurricane in the Western or southwestern Caribbean, usually its where hurricanes develop at this time of the year not in this one.
Kudos to whoever said Gonzo would be cat 2 by 2 am (on my phone at 2 am not scrolling down to quote him or her lol) I thought he'd be a close 80-85 kt storm. Good [technically morning] night.
Quoting 760. HurricaneAndre:

Yep, I think it' say two now, what do you think.


Props to Andre, correctly guessing a Category 2.

:)

Now I really have to go to bed. Bye guys!
Quoting 790. Astrometeor:



Why do you like CAA so much?


I think it's sexy.
Quoting 801. KoritheMan:



I think it's sexy.


Personally I always thought WAA is sexy.
looking more and more of a rare late October set up across FL. Looks like 2 tropical system may merge in the SE Gulf and just pump very heavy rains across the FL Penisula early next week. Also look at all the heavy rain for the Pacific NW

Not surprised to see the models so bullish on Gulf development has it has been a very hot 7 to 10 here in C & S FL with highs around 90 everyday. SSTs are still 80 plus around FL. All of this chatter of record cold across FL never happened and this is the result Gulf temps that are way above average for this time of year.



Quoting 785. KoritheMan:



Upper low with perhaps a weak low-level reflection.
No surface reflection. Just a strong mid/upper low for this time a year.

(composite)

edit: Link to animation.
Quoting 802. Jedkins01:



Personally I always thought WAA is sexy.


I like them to watch them congregate.

dat instability
Quoting 805. abcdeer:

No surface reflection. Just a strong mid/upper low for this time a year.

(composite)


Low-level reflection.

Lower troposphere, dude.
I just did my 113th update on the Atlantic tropics which included an in depth discussion on Gonzalo . BERMUDA NEEDS TO WATCH THIS STORM VERY CAREFULLY...this looks like it could be much worse than Fay for them.

In that update I was predicting Gonzalo to become a category 4 hurricane until I saw Gonzalo has just exploded into a category 2 with 105 mph max winds. Now I think Gonzalo has a chance to become a category 5...this thing is about to become a monster.
Quoting 807. KoritheMan:



Low-level reflection.

Lower troposphere, dude.
Sorry meant low level. Does this help to justify. Trades through 650mb. Or, is 650mb-500mb considered lower? Due to location the first wind barb is westerly (almost always).
There....I dun it. I just did a special update predicting Gonzalo to become a cat 5 by Wednesday night. I think some of you may think I have lost my marbles...but I haven't seen this kind of rapid intensification in the Atlantic for a while.
Quoting 809. abcdeer:

Sorry meant low level. Does this help to justify. Trades through 650mb. Or, is 650mb-500mb considered lower? Due to location the first wind barb is westerly (almost always).


The upper low is west of Hilo based on the radar image denoting precipitation echoes aloft. The southeast winds on that sounding wouldn't be inconsistent with the passage of a mid- to upper vortex, but it's hard to say for sure.
Quoting 810. NCHurricane2009:

There....I dun it. I just did a special update predicting Gonzalo to become a cat 5 by Wednesday night. I think some of you may think I have lost my marbles...but I haven't seen this kind of rapid intensification in the Atlantic for a while.


Just don't get too hung up in that, mang
What happened to the classic looking Atlantic hurricanes?
ATCF says 95 kts, almost major hurricane strength.
Maybe we'll see a Category 4 out of Gonzalo, it would be the first in the Atlantic since 2011's Hurricane Ophelia.
If Gonzalo becomes a CAT5 (not out of the question I'd say), it would be the first since 2007's Dean and Felix.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2014 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 19:02:55 N Lon : 63:47:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.0mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.4

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.7 degrees

************************************************* ***


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2014 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 19:02:55 N Lon : 63:47:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.0mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.4

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.7 degrees

************************************************* ***
000
URNT12 KNHC 140801
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 14/07:30:20Z
B. 19 deg 23 min N
064 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2878 m
D. 77 kt
E. 164 deg 15 nm
F. 233 deg 74 kt
G. 164 deg 15 nm
H. EXTRAP 971 mb
I. 10 C / 3028 m
J. 17 C / 3044 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0408A GONZALO OB 27
MAX FL WIND 116 KT 084 / 18 NM 06:45:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 141 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
Time: 07:35:30Z
Coordinates: 19.5667N 64.3W
Acft. Static Air Press: 695.1 mb (~ 20.53 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,009 meters (~ 9,872 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 990.2 mb (~ 29.24 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 74° at 97 knots (From the ENE at ~ 111.5 mph)
Air Temp: 9.2°C* (~ 48.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 102 knots (~ 117.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 77 knots (~ 88.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 35 mm/hr (~ 1.38 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

...GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...
5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 14
Location: 19.6°N 64.4°W
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Gonzalo
has continued to quickly strengthen overnight while the eye has
passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands. The aircraft
measured a peak flight-level wind of 116 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and SFMR surface winds of 92 kt. A blend of these data yield
an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS model
and a UW-CIMSS shear analysis show about 15 to 20 kt of south-
southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, which may be why the eye has not
become apparent in infrared imagery. The shear is forecast to
decrease and remain low during the next few days while the hurricane
moves over warm water. This should allow for additional
strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eyewall cycles are
likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity after that time. In
about 3 days, gradual weakening is predicted to begin as Gonzalo
will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance, and is a little
higher than the previous advisory through 72 hours due to the
higher initial intensity.

Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 315/11 kt. The hurricane is
expected to remain on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to
36 hours. After that time, Gonzalo should turn northward, then
north-northeastward ahead a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to
move off the east coast of the United States in 2 to 3 days. Late
in the period, the hurricane should accelerate northeastward in
deep layer southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic. The track
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains
some spread in the forward speed of the hurricane after 72 hours.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
is close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.6N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 21.0N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 22.7N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 24.1N 68.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 25.4N 68.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 28.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 543/545
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

ALC069-FLC013-029-037-039-045-063-065-067-073-077 -079-123-129-
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-13 1-155-173-177-
185-201-205-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-141600-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.A.0545.000000T0000Z-141014T1600Z/

TORNADO WATCH 545 REMAINS VALID UNTIL NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

HOUSTON

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA

CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON
LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR
WAKULLA

IN GEORGIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS
COLQUITT COOK IRWIN
LANIER LOWNDES THOMAS
TIFT TURNER WORTH

IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

BAKER CALHOUN CLAY
DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY
GRADY LEE MILLER
MITCHELL RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ADEL...ALBANY...APALACHICOLA...
ARLINGTON...ASHBURN...ASHFORD...BAINBRIDGE...BLAK ELY...
BLOUNTSTOWN...CAIRO...CAMILLA...CARRABELLE...CHAT TAHOOCHEE...
COLQUITT...COTTONWOOD...COWARTS...CROSS CITY...CUTHBERT...
DAWSON...DONALSONVILLE...DOTHAN...DOUGLASVILLE... EDISON...
FITZGERALD...FORT GAINES...GRACEVILLE...GREENVILLE...KINSEY...
LAKELAND...LEARY...LEESBURG...MADISON...MALONE... MARIANNA...
MAYO...MIDWAY...MONTICELLO...MORGAN...MOULTRIE... NASHVILLE...
NEWTON...OCILLA...PELHAM...PERRY...PORT ST. JOE...QUINCY...
QUITMAN...REHOBETH...SHELLMAN...SMITHVILLE...SNEA DS...SOPCHOPPY...
SPARKS...SPRING HILL...ST. MARKS...SWEETWATER...SYLVESTER...
TALLAHASSEE...TAYLOR...THOMASVILLE...TIFTON...VAL DOSTA...WEBB...
WEWAHITCHKA AND WHITE CITY.

$$
Quoting 813. scott39:

What happened to the classic looking Atlantic hurricanes?

I don't know? We totally haven't seen any in a while.

Big surf and rip current producer Bahamas and FL northward to most likely southern New England. Especially if it squeaks west of Bermuda.

Quoting 820. LargoFl:

TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Gonzalo
has continued to quickly strengthen overnight while the eye has
passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands. The aircraft
measured a peak flight-level wind of 116 kt in the northeastern
eyewall and SFMR surface winds of 92 kt. A blend of these data yield
an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS model
and a UW-CIMSS shear analysis show about 15 to 20 kt of south-
southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, which may be why the eye has not
become apparent in infrared imagery. The shear is forecast to
decrease and remain low during the next few days while the hurricane
moves over warm water. This should allow for additional
strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eyewall cycles are
likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity after that time. In
about 3 days, gradual weakening is predicted to begin as Gonzalo
will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance, and is a little
higher than the previous advisory through 72 hours due to the
higher initial intensity.

Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 315/11 kt. The hurricane is
expected to remain on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to
36 hours. After that time, Gonzalo should turn northward, then
north-northeastward ahead a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to
move off the east coast of the United States in 2 to 3 days. Late
in the period, the hurricane should accelerate northeastward in
deep layer southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic. The track
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains
some spread in the forward speed of the hurricane after 72 hours.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
is close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.6N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 21.0N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 22.7N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 24.1N 68.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 25.4N 68.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 28.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Quoting 749. nigel20:



Lol! Yes, maybe Gonzalo will be the strongest storm of the season; conditions are quite favorable.
It's really not that unusual to have the strongest storm of the season in October. 2005 is a wonderful example, in that the season had so many powerful storms, starting in July, yet Wilma didn't bomb out until the latter half of October. And after last year's wimpy performance, a cat 4 over the open ocean would be super!

[Just don't let it hit Bermuda at that intensity, thanks.... ]

Good morning all. Work is going to be a pain today. :o/ And I gotta leave in 1/2 hour so I can't even sit around for breakfast and storm chat....



Gonzalo is looking quite handsome this morning, and I feel a little more confident about the Cat 4 potential that I saw yesterday. I still don't expect anything higher, though maybe we'll get a high-end cat 4 instead of a low-end one the way I had been thinking.

One can hope extra strengthening will allow Gonzalo to pull to the east rather sooner, thereby putting Bermuda on the outer western edges of the storm as it passes.

But we shall see.
Quoting 822. Ameister12:


I don't know? We totally haven't seen any in a while.


Ya'll do realize we generally have to get over cat 2 to see this kind of organization in the ATL....

Maybe Gonzalo will be the looker of the season as well as the most high-powered....

I gone. Have a good one!
Did ya'll notice this, BTW?



Talk about direct hit.... Gonzalo is a skilled bowler...
It definitely looks as if Atlantic hurricane tracks are changing. The NHC forecast has Gonzalo 200 miles south of Newfoundland as a cat 2 (100 mph) storm, making landfall on the island shortly thereafter.



Since 2000, four hurricanes (all cat 1) have struck Newfoundland. In the whole of the 20th century, only three made landfall on the island (also all cat 1).

Newfoundland Hurricanes Since 1900

Maria Sep 2011
Igor Sep 2010
Gustav Sep 2002
Michael Oct 2000
Luis Sep 1995
Helene Sep 1958
Unnamed Oct 1939

Of these, Igor was by far the most destructive, causing $200 million in damages, almost all due to unprecedented rainfall. Igor merged with a baroclinic front, and was the 'third wettest' Atlantic hurricane on record.

However, the worst hurricane ever to hit Newfoundland was a 1775 storm (category unknown), which caused over 4,000 deaths, making it the 8th deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record.
on a surf trip back in 1973 i slept on a cot in the kitchen of sebastion motel b.v.is $10 a night. on another trip there camped out in brewers bay. beautiful place. beautiful people. this blow should not be too bad
Some epic surf to be had today in Puerto Rico, and I have to work.
I woke last night to the sound of thunder, and then again, and then again, and then again... I'd estimate that quite a bit of the GOM has been deposited on our roof top over the last 8 hours..
Good Morning from the Panhandle! (here's the current sat)
91L looking good this morning.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
91L looking good this morning.
I think it has a chance of becoming at least minimal tropical storm.
Good evening for a very wild Sydney. Currently under a dangerous thunderstorm warning. 161km/h wind gust at the coast and 2 possible tornadoes. Also reports of flash flooding too. This follows on from the wild storms yesterday afternoon. Don't you just love weather. You never know what each day will bring.

I am posting from my phone as I have turned everything off. I am also sitting on my daughters bed watching the lightning while she is now sound asleep. I shall let you know and post a video in the morning.
Quoting scott39:
What happened to the classic looking Atlantic hurricanes?


Everyone forgets about Hurricane Edouard (CAT3) a little earlier this season. It was a beautiful hurricane during its peak intensity.
If Edouard had been in the GOM people would have been screaming HELP!!

Edouard at his peak with a stadium effect eye - CAT3

Quoting 825. BahaHurican:

Good morning all. Work is going to be a pain today. :o/ And I gotta leave in 1/2 hour so I can't even sit around for breakfast and storm chat....



Gonzalo is looking quite handsome this morning, and I feel a little more confident about the Cat 4 potential that I saw yesterday. I still don't expect anything higher, though maybe we'll get a high-end cat 4 instead of a low-end one the way I had been thinking.

One can hope extra strengthening will allow Gonzalo to pull to the east rather sooner, thereby putting Bermuda on the outer western edges of the storm as it passes.

But we shall see.
Good morning,expert
Quoting 833. HurricaneAndre:

I think it has a chance of becoming at least minimal tropical storm.

Strong wind shear will kill it
Hi everyone, looks like a cool down for the SE finally next week, plus drier weather. Looking forward to the fall finally! Once this front pushes through today we dry back out again for a while, woo hoo!







Hurricane GONZALO


more t.storms today and severe weather
Hoping for major hurricane satellite p0rn soon from Gonzalo, and for US action, maybe Ana will make the weekend interesting. GFDL suggests a near miss on the Big Island NE, HWRF suggests a miss to the South. GFS seems pretty Goldilocks.





Gonzalo doesn't look overly impressive this morning. Convection has warmed and the eye is not visible. A new recon is checking him out now, I don't think they'll find much, if any, additional strengthening has occurred. Maybe a little dry air getting at him. It's pretty cool to see the NHC forecasting a peak of 130mph, we haven't seen that in the Atlantic in far too long.

Quoting 794. Astrometeor:



Oh. Then I hate that stuff. Doesn't give me anything except less snow and more nosebleeds.

I gotta go to bed, actually tired for once. (my sleep schedule is so screwed right now, lol)


Yeah I remember that first cold dry outbreak of late September at PSU each year, Dewpoints in the 30s and uncomfortably dry nose and throat. I used to keep my dorm room really humid in winter to try to mitigate it; with steam heat and radiators a wet towel would do the trick.

I transitioned from disliking cold to disliking heat at FSU and I still now prefer the cold season.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Gonzalo doesn't look overly impressive this morning. Convection has warmed and the eye is not visible. A new recon is checking him out now, I don't think they'll find much, if any, additional strengthening has occurred. Maybe a little dry air getting at him. It's pretty cool to see the NHC forecasting a peak of 130mph, we haven't seen that in the Atlantic in far too long.



He'll be the first since Ophelia. One can say what they will about this hurricane season, but the guy names have been pretty awesome to watch.
91L looks nice! :)
91L Looks great this morning. The storm that gets no respect at all. Im sick of it, really fed up.
watch out for invest 91L
HWRF says Gonzalo might give Bermuda a rough time.

Quoting 840. hurricanes2018:





Hurricane GONZALO

So what.
Quoting 849. hurricanes2018:

watch out for invest 91L
Why?
Quoting 852. prcane4you:

Why?
its invest 91L going to be a t.d in a few days so watch out for it and see where this storm is going
Quoting 848. JrWeathermanFL:



Eye
Eye looking for fishes.Say goodbye to Gonzalo
Quoting 854. hurricanes2018:

its invest 91L going to be a t.d in a few days so watch out for it and see where this storm is going
Moving NW,theres just one way to go,OTS
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located northeast of Puerto Rico.

A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has become a
little better organized overall during the past few hours,
any further development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move
northwestward and then northward over the central tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
The GFS for practically the first time all season doesn't show a Caribbean or GOM system at the end of its run.

It does show a 1005mb low crossing the state at 252 hours, but that's it. Nothing else in the Caribbean or GOM after that.

Subject to change on the next run.
EURO

EURO EPS

Our Gulf system is now inside 8 days. Interesting though trying to decide if this is frontal or just a pure ragged system.



Tropical Storm ANA Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1100 PM HST MON OCT 13 2014
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 13.2N 142.9W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 45 MPH...75 KM/H
Present movement: NW or 315 degrees AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Quoting 857. hurricanes2018:

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gonzalo, located northeast of Puerto Rico.

A broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although this system has become a
little better organized overall during the past few hours,
any further development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move
northwestward and then northward over the central tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. You see,no chance to survive.
Looks like recon is having problems.
Quoting 858. Sfloridacat5:

The GFS for practically the first time all season doesn't show a Caribbean or GOM system at the end of its run.

It does show a 1005mb low crossing the state at 252 hours, but that's it. Nothing else in the Caribbean or GOM after that.

Subject to change on the next run.


That's because it sits off the west coast of FL all next week and just dumps large amounts of rain on FL. If this verifies and that' IF some areas could get up to 10" of rain from this system.

Thru 240hrs
Quoting 861. StormTrackerScott:

Our Gulf system is now inside 8 days. Interesting though trying to decide if this is frontal or just a pure ragged system.




Our Gulf system? You mean yours.
Very active day across the SE today.

Strength looks unchanged, flight level winds were around 112 knots at peak. Pressure around ~972 mb.

000
URNT15 KNHC 141147
AF305 0508A GONZALO HDOB 23 20141014
113800 1958N 06444W 6967 02939 9726 +171 +062 138042 044 085 001 03
113830 1959N 06442W 6967 02949 9752 +156 +081 139064 072 087 000 03
113900 2000N 06441W 6956 02979 9792 +132 +103 146081 089 087 000 00
113930 2001N 06439W 6968 02986 9830 +121 +080 157108 112 087 002 00
114000 2003N 06438W 6988 02993 9908 +098 +096 148106 110 082 004 00
114030 2004N 06437W 6950 03059 9961 +096 +096 142089 102 069 024 00
114100 2005N 06435W 6993 03021 9977 +092 +092 148085 089 065 016 00
114130 2006N 06434W 6962 03072 9989 +089 //// 146086 088 064 007 01
114200 2008N 06433W 6962 03090 9977 +088 +086 145081 083 062 003 00
114230 2009N 06431W 6959 03104 9989 +090 +076 144078 078 062 003 00
114300 2010N 06430W 6972 03099 0002 +088 +072 142075 077 059 004 00
114330 2011N 06429W 6968 03111 0018 +079 +077 143072 075 059 004 01
114400 2013N 06427W 6965 03121 //// +077 //// 143070 072 055 003 01
114430 2014N 06426W 6966 03124 //// +078 //// 143067 070 052 003 01
114500 2015N 06425W 6971 03123 //// +069 //// 142061 063 052 003 01
114530 2016N 06423W 6959 03143 0045 +079 +068 142062 063 050 002 00
114600 2018N 06422W 6968 03138 //// +071 //// 141061 062 048 001 01
114630 2019N 06421W 6969 03141 0060 +075 +055 136058 060 046 000 01
114700 2020N 06419W 6969 03144 0065 +077 +054 133055 057 045 001 00
114730 2021N 06418W 6964 03155 0063 +075 +056 134052 054 044 002 01
$$
;
Tornado Watches



Sorry no Cat 5 for Tampa this year.
The front approaches Florida today, behind it some beautiful fall-like weather! We should be happy its moving through because its taking Hurricane Gonazalo with it!

Quoting WxGuy2014:
The front approaches Florida today, behind it some beautiful fall-like weather! We should be happy its moving through because its taking Hurricane Gonazalo with it!



Not sure if Bermuda should be overtly pleased with that, however.
517 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.


.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
...WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. DUE
TO INCREASING WIND FIELDS OVER THE PENINSULA...A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN A 60 TO 90
MINUTE PERIOD COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED TEMPORARY URBAN OR ROAD
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

TODAY'S ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORM MOTION AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH TO THE
NORTH OF ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

KEEP ABREAST OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...AND MOVE INDOORS TO
SAFETY IN ADVANCE OF THREATENING WEATHER.
Big Picture
Well survived a rough night of storms in the Florida Panhandle! The strongest storms have pushed off to our East and just raining lightly now. Still muggy and 77 degrees so the cool air hasn't pushed through yet, should be soon. It's 62 in Mobile which is about 1.5 hours to my West so the cool down isn't too far away! Picked up just over 3" of rain so far from the storms overnight, we needed the rain so glad we picked it up without any major damage from strong winds.
Quoting 859. SFLWeatherman:

EURO

EURO EPS




LOL! The Euro ensembles are unleashing loads of rain across FL as well as the GFS. Again it appears 4 to 5 days of dry weather after Wednesday then the rains return and return with a fury. Very rare set up about to take shape across the Gulf.
Be prepared the whole day to see here how s the weather in Florida today.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not sure if Bermuda should be overtly pleased with that, however.


You are right, us in the states will be spared but at the moment Bermuda looks to be in the cross-hairs. Forecast says it could become a major, lets hope it tracks farther east than anticipated. Computer models have a pretty good handle on it at the moment, going right over Bermuda.

Most years Bermuda gets lucky because it's such a small target.
But Bermuda is located in the perfect location for seeing frequent tropical storms and hurricanes.

Quoting 869. Sfloridacat5:


Take shelter a line of showers will reach Tampa Bay soon.
Quoting WxGuy2014:


You are right, us in the states will be spared but at the moment Bermuda looks to be in the cross-hairs. Forecast says it come become a major, lets hope it tracks farther east than anticipated. Computer models have a pretty good handle on it at the moment, going right over Bermuda.



I agree, definitely looks like it could be a rough one for them. The current NHC forecast looks like it could have Gonzalo passing directly over them as a 100 knot Category 3 hurricane, which would be the worst since Fabian in 2003 if my memory isn't failing me.
next week it looks like a mini-pineapple express of moisture coming out of the epac into the gulf sometimes these troughs can produce large amounts of precip. in fact most of the pineapples we eat are now grown in central america. what about the central american earthquake?
The NHC is downplaying yet another storm this year.91L could at least become a minimal T.S before conditions get unfavorable again.The last major hurricane to strike Bermuda was Fabian in 2003.Could it happen with Gonzalo?.We'll see.

Now somebody 3 weeks and this week was posting those big bad red maps saying that fall will not exist this this month and that it would be dry.It has been average so far with slightly above normal rain in the D.C area.So much for those CPC maps.
In the meantime, Ana in the central Pacific looks to be strengthening. Current CPHC track takes it directly at Hawaii as a moderate Category 1 hurricane.

Quoting 883. Sfloridacat5:

Most years Bermuda gets lucky because it's such a small target.
But Bermuda is located in the perfect location for seeing tropical storms and hurricanes.


Florida is a perfect location too for hurricanes in the Gulf,specially Cat s 5
Quoting 886. islander101010:

next week it looks like a mini-pineapple express of moisture coming out of the epac into the gulf sometimes these troughs can produce large amounts of precip.


We saw this back in September and it looks like the pattern may repeat. That's why it was too premature to say the Rainy Season is done as the Gulf SST's are way above average for mid to late October. It's these much above average SST's that could help in aid the development of very heavy rain across FL as a trough stalls across FL.
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 94 knots (108 mph)
East coast surfers could see some increased swells from Gonazalo, if thats your thing.

Quoting 885. CybrTeddy:



I agree, definitely looks like it could be a rough one for them. The current NHC forecast looks like it could have Gonzalo passing directly over them as a 100 knot Category 3 hurricane, which would be the worst since Fabian in 2003 if my memory isn't failing me.
Another one for the recurving list of the year.
These temps are well above average for October by atleast 10 to 15 degrees.

Quoting 885. CybrTeddy:



I agree, definitely looks like it could be a rough one for them. The current NHC forecast looks like it could have Gonzalo passing directly over them as a 100 knot Category 3 hurricane, which would be the worst since Fabian in 2003 if my memory isn't failing me.
You have good memory.Fabian was over shadowed by Isabel however.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good evening for a very wild Sydney. Currently under a dangerous thunderstorm warning. 161km/h wind gust at the coast and 2 possible tornadoes. Also reports of flash flooding too. This follows on from the wild storms yesterday afternoon. Don't you just love weather. You never know what each day will bring.

I am posting from my phone as I have turned everything off. I am also sitting on my daughters bed watching the lightning while she is now sound asleep. I shall let you know and post a video in the morning.


Update...

Round 1. (note the 2 distinct swirls)


Round 2.



And now




Sydney Radar
Temps here in Orlando are actually supposed to get back to average before returning above normal again later this weekend ahead of the Gulf system.

Quoting 896. AussieStorm:



Update...

Round 1.


Round 2.



And now





Thanks Aussie! It looks like you guys are getting some action too. Send us pics if you can.
Quoting 897. StormTrackerScott:

Temps here in Orlando are actually supposed to get back to average before returning above normal again later this weekend ahead of the Gulf system.


????
901. MahFL
Quoting 839. WxGuy2014:

Hi everyone, looks like a cool down for the SE finally next week...


In Orange Park, I cool down from 88F to 82 F...
902. MahFL
Quoting 897. StormTrackerScott:

Temps here in Orlando are actually supposed to get back to average before returning above normal again later this weekend ahead of the Gulf system.


What Gulf system ?
Quoting 901. MahFL:



In Orange Park, I cool down from 88F to 82 F...


LOL! I know I need to go to the closet and get a sweater.

Anyways you guys in Tampa are getting a light show to your SW.

Quoting 898. Sfloridacat5:


Adios amigo Gonzalo.
Quoting 902. MahFL:



What Gulf system ?


This one for next Tuesday and beyond as this thing could meander in the Gulf for days.

This just in.....

Lightning strikes Sydney's Centre Point Tower





Video
Quoting AussieStorm:
This just in.....

Lightning strikes Sydney's Centre Point Tower





Apparently it blacked out the whole tower on instant.

Insane.
Quoting MahFL:


In Orange Park, I cool down from 88F to 82 F...


Im near Tallahassee and our low on weather.gov is showing 50 degrees tomorrow evening and in the mid 50's from then on which is what i meant by the cool down :) Link

I see you guys over in OP will be at 78-80 and lows in the 50s too, beats the upper 80s and lows in the 70s for sure.
Link
Beautiful and sunny day here in Puerto Rico.What hurricane?
Good morning all.

New video discussion out for those interested:

Gonzalo Sets Sights on Bermuda; Ana May Threaten Hawaii
911. MahFL
Quoting 874. WxGuy2014:

The front approaches Florida today, behind it some beautiful fall-like weather! We should be happy its moving through because its taking Hurricane Gonazalo with it!


I thought it was a weakness in the ridge that is turning Gonzalo NW, not the front.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL! I know I need to go to the closet and get a sweater.

Anyways you guys in Tampa are getting a light show to your SW.



You may not need a sweater in Orlando, but us up here in northern FL when it gets to the 50s every evening starting tomorrow will need one, unless you are from Canada of course and its shorts and t-shirt weather. Enjoy that dry weather in Orlando, looks to be around a while.
914. JRRP
915. JRRP

Quoting 879. 69Viking:

Well survived a rough night of storms in the Florida Panhandle! The strongest storms have pushed off to our East and just raining lightly now. Still muggy and 77 degrees so the cool air hasn't pushed through yet, should be soon. It's 62 in Mobile which is about 1.5 hours to my West so the cool down isn't too far away! Picked up just over 3" of rain so far from the storms overnight, we needed the rain so glad we picked it up without any major damage from strong winds.

I'm bemoaning this dry, cooler air coming.
Quoting 887. washingtonian115:

The NHC is downplaying yet another storm this year.91L could at least become a minimal T.S before conditions get unfavorable again.


I wouldn't say downplaying, as the only model that develops it notably is the CMC (into a hurricane). The other models just show an area of low pressure, or perhaps a TD at best. Maybe this'll be the CMC's win of the year lol? 91L does currently have its most intense 850mb I've seen it have though on its eastern side (under the convection):





If it keeps up like it's doing, I think a minimal-moderate tropical storm isn't out of the question. But Gonzalo might affect the system as it seems that it'll head in his vicinity. Plus 91L has a rather broad rotation, so it'll need a few days to consolidate properly.
Looking at the radar, is GONZO taking a temporary jog to the WNW?
Quoting 917. Envoirment:



I wouldn't say downplaying, as the only model that develops it notably is the CMC (into a hurricane). The other models just show an area of low pressure, or perhaps a TD at best. Maybe this'll be the CMC's win of the year lol? 91L does currently have its most intense 850mb I've seen it have though on its eastern side (under the convection):





If it keeps up like it's doing, I think a minimal-moderate tropical storm isn't out of the question. But Gonzalo might affect the system as it seems that it'll head in his vicinity.
I don't expect doomsday like the CMC is showing.But if it were to become anything maybe a weak T.S
Quoting 916. opal92nwf:


I'm bemoaning this dry, cooler air coming.


Are you serious or being sarcastic? I'm looking forward to it, with winter coming I have some yard work to get done and this cooler weather is perfect for that! Not to mention hunting season is quickly approaching and it's not fun hunting when it's hot, muggy and buggy!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Thanks Aussie! It looks like you guys are getting some action too. Send us pics if you can.

I have a video, I will edit it and post it in the morning. 11:30pm here and this thing ain't letting up.

Also, snow about 65miles west of Sydney in the Blue Mountains.



Gonzalo's eye is starting to clear out/become visible:



Quoting wxgeek723:


Apparently it blacked out the whole tower on instant.

Insane.


Check the video link. Doesn't look like it.
Quoting 912. WxGuy2014:



You may not need a sweater in Orlando, but us up here in northern FL when it gets to the 50s every evening starting tomorrow will need one, unless you are from Canada of course and its shorts and t-shirt weather. Enjoy that dry weather in Orlando, looks to be around a while.


Not according to the GFS ensembles. Very good agreement in the 5 to 10 range of the GFS Ensembles.

I would give anything (except for the money I do not have) to be at this location on Friday!

Too bad, so sad. The round-trip cost plus hotel to Bermuda is $4,000 today!

I will keep a sharp eye out for live streams, but a major hurricane is likely to take out both electricity and communications in Bermuda during landfall.



Bermuda will not let you stay on the island if you do not have a place to go. They will put you on the next flight out...so if anyone is thinking about going...you need to reserve one of the VERY EXPENSIVE hotel rooms in addition to your flight.
At least we're not getting a freeze or something, that would be so much more depressing. Although still, this forecast is what I hate; dry/sunny for days on end...

The earliest freeze I've had since living here the last 7 years was late October. But typically it comes around Thanksgiving.
Check out the wind. Almost as strong than as Gonzalo



Sydney Doppler radar.

928. JRRP
Quoting 924. StormTrackerScott:



Not according to the GFS ensembles. Very good agreement in the 5 to 10 range of the GFS Ensembles.

Yes, kick that dry air out!!
Quoting 919. washingtonian115:

I don't expect doomsday like the CMC is showing.But if it were to become anything maybe a weak T.S
I agree, at this point I think the CMC is just jive talking.
Quoting 922. Envoirment:

Gonzalo's eye is starting to clear out:




So are P.R.'s chance at decent rainfall totals unless the tail flares up over them.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 12:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2014
Storm Name: Gonzalo (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 11:35:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°51'N 64°49'W (19.85N 64.8167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 128 miles (207 km) to the NE (39°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,890m (9,482ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SW (234°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 325° at 65kts (From the NW at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 975mb (28.79 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,088m (10,131ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 112kts (~ 128.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (44°) from the flight level center at 11:39:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 18kts (From the E at 21mph)


General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."
(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)
Sydney Airport is closed due to flooding inside the terminal.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE GONZALO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
840 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

.NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED...NOW A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
MARINERS...AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREAS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9N...LONGITUDE 64.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 130 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH OF SAINT
THOMAS VI. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 110 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ALTHOUGH HURRICANE GONZALO IS MOVING AWAY FROM OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC
OFFSHORE WATERS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF AMZ710. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE THE INTENSITY OF THIS STORM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG...THERE IS STILL A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY. MARINERS
ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. CONTINUE TO
IMPLEMENT YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER
BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND NOON.

AMZ710-141700-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.HU.W.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.TR.W.1008.141014T1240Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
840 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
Good Morning..



funny that eastern NC was added to the slight risk today..

Quoting MahFL:


I thought it was a weakness in the ridge that is turning Gonzalo NW, not the front.


It's a combination of things. Low pressure seeks out low pressure.
There's also a series of fronts coming off the Eastcoast. Nothing can get to the U.S. with these fronts pushing off the Eastcoast.

Quoting 920. 69Viking:



Are you serious or being sarcastic? I'm looking forward to it, with winter coming I have some yard work to get done and this cooler weather is perfect for that! Not to mention hunting season is quickly approaching and it's not fun hunting when it's hot, muggy and buggy!

Since gardening is a big part of my life, I hate it because it does nothing to help things grow. Here in NWFL, you don't really get that much rain while it's cold outside; usually it has to be both cool and dry. When freezes happen, it's almost always bone dry with not one cloud in the sky.

For me, these cold, bone-dry air intrusions are just a painful reminder that everything is going to be zapped soon, my days of walking around the yard admiring plants or being able to wear shorts a t shirt are over, as well as the summer t'storm season.

NWFL really can be annoying because I'd rather have it one way or another. I loved living in Illinois with the 4 seasons and everything, and I would love living in S. Florida as well, but here, it's just in between with no snow, but you still get freezes that zap everything, as well as some depressing overcast cool/cold days.
Quoting 935. ncstorm:

Good Morning..



funny that eastern NC was added to the slight risk today..




GFS at time has been merging the Caribbean and Gulf system into one big system. Washi I guess thinks the rains across the SE US are bogus. Heck I am sure some maybe think I made these maps up. Whatever I just keep on going.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Not according to the GFS ensembles. Very good agreement in the 5 to 10 range of the GFS Ensembles.



Thanks, but im not really interested in anything more than 5 days out unless we have a developing tropical system. Plus from what i've read on here lately the GFS has not been very reliable. Just going to enjoy the present and not live 5-10 days in the future lol.
Quoting 930. Llamaluvr:

I agree, at this point I think the CMC is just jive talking.
The CMC showed 3 hurricanes lined up XD.
No reason gonzalo can't reach Cat 4 status. Very good conditions ahead. Bad for Bermuda.

Is this the Florida s weather blog?
Quoting Grothar:


91L looks good in that image, not sure if it'll be a named storm but i wouldnt count that out. If we do get a named system it'll be Hanna and our 8th storm of the season. I think the NHC was calling for 9-11 storms right? Seems about right to me.
946. Ed22
Good morning, I've said that hurricane Gonzalo could be a strong category 2 or 3 hurricane today its in my lasted comment yesterday. I looks super this morning with winds of 110mph on the verge of becoming a category 3 this morning at 11am with winds of 120mph by the end of the day it could be a monster category 4 hurricane. What say you weather fokes on this comment.
Some serious storms moving through.

Another video, this time from Sydney CBD.

Just a bit windy!!!

Link
Quoting 948. WxGuy2014:

Some serious storms moving through.




It sounds like a war going on, constant thunder with these strong thunderstorm, I've already had 1.2 inches of rain so far and I haven't even gotten the main squall line that's approaching here yet, these are some impressive thunderstorms.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The Euro brings three cold fronts through central Florida in the next 10 days!
Good times, good times.

Quoting 829. islander101010:

on a surf trip back in 1973 i slept on a cot in the kitchen of sebastion motel b.v.is $10 a night. on another trip there camped out in brewers bay. beautiful place. beautiful people. this blow should not be too bad
OK, now I'm worried, lol.

East Coast swell maker in the water. Could be a real fun one.

Quoting 858. Sfloridacat5:

The GFS for practically the first time all season doesn't show a Caribbean or GOM system at the end of its run.

It does show a 1005mb low crossing the state at 252 hours, but that's it. Nothing else in the Caribbean or GOM after that.

Subject to change on the next run.
SE swell for Oahu. Town, Diamondhead, Sandy's should be lighting up.

Quoting 888. CybrTeddy:

In the meantime, Ana in the central Pacific looks to be strengthening. Current CPHC track takes it directly at Hawaii as a moderate Category 1 hurricane.


We are getting completely swamped with torrential rain just as I have to head to class, I don't see how I'm not going to end up completely soaked, the rainfall is crazy heavy right now.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FLC073-141530-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FF.W.0043.141014T1347Z-141014T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLAHASSEE...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT

* AT 946 AM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED VERY
HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS TALLAHASSEE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LEON COUNTY
CIVIC CENTER...STATE CAPITAL COMPLEX AND WOODVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE AWAY FROM RISING WATER TO HIGHER GROUND! MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS.
REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 8424 3030 8425 3030 8442 3031 8443
3061 8431 3059 8413 3027 8423

$$

42-DVD


some severe weather later