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90L Likely a Tropical Depression; Category 4 Hudhud Blasts India; Fay Lashes Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:52 PM GMT on October 12, 2014

An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday morning (Invest 90L) was headed west at about 10 - 15 mph, and is probably already a tropical depression. Satellite loops and Martinique radar showed 90L was well-organized with plenty of spin, spiral bands, and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Water vapor satellite loops show a good degree of dry air surrounding 90L, and this dry air is retarding development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28.5°C (83°F), and wind shear was light, 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are favorable for steady development. The 8 am Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for development for the next five days, with light to moderate wind shear and SSTs near 29°C (84°F). In a special 10:30 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 90%. 90L's west to west-northwest trajectory over the next few days will bring heavy rains over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday evening, and these rains will spread westwards to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Monday morning, and to the eastern Dominican Republic on Monday evening. Interaction with the high terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may slow down development on Monday and Tuesday. The storm's center will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, and near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. After that time, the models are unified in showing that 90L will get caught up in a trough of low pressure and turn to the north and then northeast, possibly passing close to Bermuda next Saturday or Sunday. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the air, and will be investigating 90L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L near the Lesser Antilles.

Fay brings winds near hurricane force to Bermuda
Tropical Storm Fay is accelerating to the northeast, out to sea, after battering Bermuda with winds close to hurricane force. Sustained winds at the Bermuda Airport reached 61 mph, with a gust to 82 mph, at 7:34 am local time Sunday morning. The airport recorded 1.85" of rain from the storm as of noon on Sunday. Fay will be absorbed by a cold front on Monday and die, without affecting any other land areas. The construction on Bermuda is the best of any island in the Atlantic to handle hurricane-force winds, and I expect damage on the island will be minor.

Category 4 Hudhud blasts India
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud powered ashore near Visakhapatnam, India at 05 UTC (3 am EDT) Sunday as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. Preliminary media reports indicate that damage was heavy in Visakhapatnam, a port city of 2 million, with thousands of homes damaged or destroyed and five people killed by falling trees and masonry. One-minute resolution wind observations from Visakhapatnam showed a peak sustained wind of 73 mph at 9:44 am local time, with a peak gust of 119 mph at 10:30 am. The station stopped reporting data at that time. Communications are out to much of the most severely affected regions, and I expect Hudhud's eventual toll will be similar to that of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Phailin, which killed 45 people and did $700 million in damage in October 2013 to an area of India's coast just north of where Hudhud hit. Satellite loops show that Hudhud is pushing inland and weakening rapidly, with the storm's heavy thunderstorms steadily shrinking in areal coverage and intensity.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud taken at approximately 1 am EDT October 12, 2014, as the storm was making landfall near Visakhapatnam, India. At the time, Hudhud was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Final image of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud as seen by radar out of Visakhapatnam, India before it failed at 4:51 UTC (12:51 am EDT) October 12, 2014. At the time, Hudhud was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds.


Video 1. Footage of high winds and heavy rain affecting Visakhapatnam, India as Tropical Cyclone Hudhud approaches the city on October 11, 2014.

Vongfong drenching Japan
Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Vongfong are drenching southern Japan as the once-mighty typhoon steams slowly north-northeastwards at 10 mph. Okinawa Island took a tremendous beating from Vongfong on Friday and Saturday, with sustained winds reaching 64 mph, with gusts as high as 89 mph. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMeDAS site at Kunigami on the northern end of Okinawa reported 20.83" (529.0 mm) of rain in 48 hours. Vongfong injured at least 31 people and knocked out power to much of the island. Satellite loops and Japanese radar show that Vongfong's eyewall has collapsed, and the storm continues to weaken due to high wind shear and cooling waters. Vongfong will likely dump 1 - 2 feet of rain over portions of Japan Sunday and Monday.


Figure 4. Heavy rains from Vongfong as seen on Japanese radar at 01:25 local time Monday (12:25 pm EDT Sunday.) Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has his take on the tropics in a Sunday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hudhud is a deadly storm!
Thanks for the Sunday update.
We tend to agree with you that 90L is more than likely a T.D.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Cool feed right now showing the rapid scat dish spinning away. Link Looks like the iss will pass very close to 90L hopefully get some good wind data! Link HH should be in there shortly also.
Everytime I go on this site a new update is put up lol the moment I come onto this site it's weird.
I hope most evacuated and the death toll does not continue to rise, it does seem like India deals with these events much better than they used to. Also, the radar there seems pretty impressive, its resolution looks pretty darn good, comparable to what we have here in the states.
Hudhud hehe..I'm sorry the name..Well anyway thanks Doc.For now the imminent threat is 90L (better not call it a T.D or anything).The GFS is back to forecasting a caribbean storm for the 1,000,000 times this season.
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

Hudhud hehe..I'm sorry the name..Well anyway thanks Doc.For now the imminent threat is 90L (better not call it a T.D or anything).The GFS is back to forecasting a caribbean storm for the 1,000,000 times this season.
Yeah XD.
If 90L do not grow more organized the ever excuse of dry air entrapment is reserved as the hypothesis to explain the experiments...
Quoting 9. Climate175:

Yeah XD.
GFS has backed up the time frame AGAIN.On the other model it had the storm going up the east coast around the 24th now the 26 it's still in the Bahama's xD.The GFS needs to cut the dosage in half.I'm not believing anything that model is saying unless their is a validated disturbance down in the caribbean.Remember a storm was suppose to be hitting Cuba right now with Florida next on the list.SMH that upgrade really didn't help one bit.
Quoting 11. washingtonian115:

GFS has backed up the time frame AGAIN.On the other model it had the storm going up the east coast around the 24th now the 26 it's still in the Bahama's xD.The GFS needs to cut the dosage in half.I'm not believing anything that model is saying unless their is a validated disturbance down in the caribbean.Remember a storm was suppose to be hitting Cuba right now with Florida next on the list.SMH that upgrade really didn't help one bit.
Heck GFS has been forecasting this storm since May and I am still waiting LOLOLOL.
Thanks Doc.
Poking around the surf zone (rip current) forecasts, I find a lot of disclaimers like this one for Corpus Christi (emphasis added):

A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS THAT ANY RIP CURRENTS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAK BUT STILL MAY POSE A DANGER TO POOR SWIMMERS. RESEARCH HAS SHOWN RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES...INLETS...AND PIERS AND THESE CAN BE QUITE STRONG ON DAYS WHERE THE OVERALL RIP CURRENT THREAT IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF STRONG SOUTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXIST.

Reminds me of the drownings that happen in rivers like the Brazos near me when the water is low and the current is weak. The rivers scour deep holes and weak swimmers wade over the drop offs into deep water.
any info on recon folks ???
ISS flew over wave behind 90L and it looks great! NHC should still mention it.
Quoting bappit:
Poking around the surf zone (rip current) forecasts, I find a lot of disclaimers like this one for Corpus Christi (emphasis added):

A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS THAT ANY RIP CURRENTS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAK BUT STILL MAY POSE A DANGER TO POOR SWIMMERS. RESEARCH HAS SHOWN RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES...INLETS...AND PIERS AND THESE CAN BE QUITE STRONG ON DAYS WHERE THE OVERALL RIP CURRENT THREAT IS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF STRONG SOUTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXIST.

Reminds me of the drownings that happen in rivers like the Brazos near me when the water is low and the current is weak. The rivers scour deep holes and weak swimmers wade over the drop offs into deep water.


That says "strong southerly or northeasterly winds exist."
Winds out of those directions in Corpus cause a strong long shore current. Strong long shore currents cause strong rips near piers and jetties.
I lived in Corpus and surfed its' waters for many years. My favorite spot was Bob Hall Pier. Bob Hall produced the best wave on the Coastal Bend.
Quoting 16. Climate175:

ISS flew over wave behind 90L and it looks great! NHC should still mention it.


I think that the next pass will be better than this one ..90 minutes
Huge mid latitude cyclone in the central Pacific. It has areas of gale and hurricane force winds.



I'm just not captivated by 90L, but the recon should be interesting.
Quoting 18. txjac:



I think that the next pass will be better than this one ..90 minutes
Yep I am waiting for that one, next pass you will see it clearly.
"Atlantic recon in the last thirty minutes...
There has been no recent recon for
the products our site checks."
Quoting 21. JrWeathermanFL:

"Atlantic recon in the last thirty minutes...
There has been no recent recon for
the products our site checks."
RapidScan is on the job!
Quoting 21. JrWeathermanFL:

"Atlantic recon in the last thirty minutes...
There has been no recent recon for
the products our site checks."
What does this mean?.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the low pressure system located a couple of
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has developed into
Tropical Storm Gonzalo with maximum winds of 40 mph. A special
tropical cyclone advisory package has been issued on this system at
130 pm EDT...1730 UTC.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1730 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
26. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121743
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the low pressure system located a couple of
hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has developed into
Tropical Storm Gonzalo with maximum winds of 40 mph. A special
tropical cyclone advisory package has been issued on this system at
130 pm EDT...1730 UTC.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
08L.EIGHT on backup Navy site.
You will get security warning going to that site.

Link
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...ST. MARTIN...
AND ST. BARTHELEMY

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND...AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND AFFECT
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
29. SLU
000
WTNT23 KNHC 121743
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1730 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...ST. MARTIN...
AND ST. BARTHELEMY

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST.MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST.MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.4W AT 12/1730Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 58.4W AT 12/1730Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.4N 59.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 61.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.2N 63.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.2N 65.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
It has begun.
We now have Tropical Storm Gonzalo.
(Dunno if any of you really care since we have Gonzalo now, but...)

Latest D2 convective outlook has ramped up the wording significantly for tomorrow. Now mentioning the treat for "Tornadoes... a couple of which could be strong." Earlier it was only "isolated small tornadoes."

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
AND GULF COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS ON
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL-TILT UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER-MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY.

...MID-SOUTH/LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON MONDAY
INCLUDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES...INCLUDING
A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO TN VALLEY. WHILE A HIGHER-END SLIGHT
RISK /ENHANCED SLIGHT EQUIVALENT/ WILL CURRENTLY BE
MAINTAINED...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK
UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

A SQUALL LINE WITH AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE POTENTIAL /DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADO/ IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX VICINITY. CONTRIBUTIONS TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ASIDE...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG 45-60 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE A STEADY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST VICINITY...WITH INCREASINGLY PREVALENT
LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY MIDDAY.

INITIALLY...MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED
NEAR THE EARLY-DAY SQUALL LINE...WITH WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
INITIALLY TENDING TO BE LIMITED BY 1/ CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND 2/ ASCENT TENDING TO BE MAXIMIZED NEAR/BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPING/DEEPENING
SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. SUCH
A SCENARIO /SQUALL LINE-PRECEDING DEVELOPMENT/ COULD INITIALLY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHEAST LA/FAR EASTERN AR INTO MUCH OF MS/WESTERN TN AND
EVENTUALLY AL BY EVENING COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE MAY APPROACH 1500 J/KG OVER A
PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF MO/IL/INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MID/UPPER WINDS TO BACK WITH TIME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND SIZABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF AN OVERALL
MIXED-MOVED OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHO AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND SOME TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AMID A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SRH ENVIRONMENT. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK
UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS PENDING SUBSEQUENT EARLY-DAY SQUALL LINE
DETAILS...ALONG WITH A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN APPRECIABLE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW.


THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF
COASTAL STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH NORTHWARD/EASTWARD EXTENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/12/2014
33. SLU
Gonzalo

Multiple people going to post it.In summery this storm has been a T.S since this morning when the NHC was still being conservative.

I'm not sure what's wrong with my stupid computer!.
35. JRRP
Gonzo Gonzo
GONZALO NAMED by the NHC!!! 40MPH

Today OCT 12, 2014 is the busiest we have seen the Atlantic Basin all hurricane season!

Fay brought 82MPH gusts to Bermuda this morning.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Blog's Reaction.
Quoting 33. SLU:

Gonzalo


Better looking storm in the MDR this year.
Category 1 by 48 hours; Category 2 by 96. Bit bullish if you ask me.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1730Z 16.4N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.2N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.2N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.5N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 22.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
42. SLU
000
WTNT43 KNHC 121755
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
pressure system east of the Leeward islands found SFMR surface
winds of tropical storm force, and based on this information the
low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 kt. Due to a
strong ridge to the north of Gonzalo, the cyclone is expected to
move generally westward at around 10 kt for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the 36-72 hour
time frame. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off of
the U.S. east coast is expected to erode the ridge, causing Gonzalo
to move slowly northwestward to northward. The NHC track forecast
closely follows the consensus model TVCN.

The small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less
than 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady
strengthening throughout the forecast period. There will likely be
occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air that may briefly slow
the intensification process, but those occurrences should generally
be short-lived. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS
intensity model.

NOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the
NHC, but telecommunications problems are preventing the
dissemination of these data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1730Z 16.4N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.2N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.2N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.5N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 22.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Not sure if I agree with the NHC's forecast of a Category 1 hurricane in 48 hours and a Category 2 hurricane in 96 hours. Mid-level RH values are hovering around 50%, which is dry.
So they finally did it.

The people in the Leeward Islands have about 5-6 hours of day light to prepare for a storm.
Thank you Dr. Masters
What if Gonzalo pulled a Chris..
The small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less
than 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady
strengthening throughout the forecast period. There will likely be
occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air that may briefly slow
the intensification process, but those occurrences should generally
be short-lived. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS
intensity model.
I agree that his small size might help him strength but at the same time it might be severely wound by dry air. Its a double sword being a small tropical cyclone sometimes it helps others it don't
48. JRRP
Quoting 46. washingtonian115:

What if Gonzalo pulled a Chris..


I would absolutely love to see the blog's reaction!
Quoting 46. washingtonian115:

What if Gonzalo pulled a Chris..

I would be laughing hysterically at the blog's reaction.
Jeez! You stop checking the weather for a week or two and bam!
Quoting AztecCe:
Jeez! You stop checking the weather for a week or two and bam!


Yeah, just a couple weeks ago many experts in the field had given up on this season.
Now we have two named systems going at the same time.
Who would have thunk it?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Not sure if I agree with the NHC's forecast of a Category 1 hurricane in 48 hours and a Category 2 hurricane in 96 hours. Mid-level RH values are hovering around 50%, which is dry.
woops... that means, Puerto Rico needs to prepare for a cat.1 hurricane
Quoting 51. AztecCe:

Jeez! You stop checking the weather for a week or two and bam!
the ole jedi reverse psychology trick on mother nature!! You saved us!

Hard to believe they went that high on their expectations but it has wound itself up nice....
I remembered the HWRF showed a hurricane impacting P.R.I'm still not buying it just yet.
so this winter the SW and SE states may be wetter than normal huh..usually during the winter we are drier...
Two named storms at once? Pretty bold for 2014.
Good afternoon all .... wow, I expected we'd get at least a TD today, but didn't expect Gonzalo to pull itself together so quickly.... It does look pretty decent especially compared to 2 days ago....



Anybody think Gonzalo could travel farther west and pull a Hazel ?
Time to celebrate? xD (track a little too south of me though... :/)
Just as expected like i said earlier 40 mph storm and Gonzalo was the name gonna be called when they get there. The center was wrapping to good and very good outflow boundary
Quoting 33. SLU:

Gonzalo


You guys may actually get a shower or two on the south side, but this looks like Caribboy's game for a change.... lol ... hope he's enjoying the buildup!

Quoting 23. washingtonian115:

What does this mean?.


I suspect one of the possibilities (I have 3 'sources' for RECON data) - either a mechanical problem and RECON returned to SJU, or more likely - a major data link outage and the only info NHC got was via SATCOM (Voice). I already 'called it' T.C. #8 earlier this AM on my blog, and will have another Interim update in a couple hours...

Steve
Uh-oh. I'm doomed. XD
FAY.....The tropical storm, which had maximum sustained winds near 70 mph and stronger gusts, disrupted power for more than 27,000 customers of the Bermuda Electric Light Company. The utility is the sole supplier of electricity for the territory of roughly 65,000 inhabitants.

Fay downed trees and utility poles and several roads were blocked across the tiny archipelago, which has one of the highest per capita incomes in the world and enforces strict building codes to ensure that homes can withstand intense weather. Bermuda's public works ministry urged residents not to venture out on the roads.
Quoting 41. Ameister12:

Category 1 by 48 hours; Category 2 by 96. Bit bullish if you ask me.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1730Z 16.4N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.2N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.2N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.5N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 22.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 24.0N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Disagree. The forecast track gives it the least possible land interaction and takes it into about the best possible conditions in the basin - that area east of The Bahamas has been something of a hot spot all season. Would be cool to see a cat 3 beyond the 5-day period, especially if it does a recurve between the OBX and Bermuda and circles neatly around the high....
Quoting 65. SteveGregory:



I suspect one of the possibilities (I have 3 'sources' for RECON data) - either a mechanical problem and RECON returned to SJU, or more likely - a major data link outage and the only info NHC got was via SATCOM (Voice). I already 'called it' T.C. #8 earlier this AM on my blog, and will have another Interim update in a couple hours...

Steve
Thank you!.I just think the NHC wanted to get confirmation from the HH.
Quoting 61. weatherlover94:

Anybody think Gonzalo could travel farther west and pull a Hazel ?
watching it closely lol,should that front moving across the south stall..it could keep going more westward..
Quoting 66. Ameister12: Uh-oh. I'm doomed. XD


Yikes! Might wanna exorcise before any exercise. Post 66 too eek!
and your number is divisible by 6 lol
Quoting 62. CaribBoy:

Time to celebrate? xD (track a little too south of me though... :/)
Small deviation to the north would bring the centre right over you, though. If it's strengthening quickly enough, that could happen. [looking on the bright side.... :o)]
Here He Comes!
Quoting 65. SteveGregory:



I suspect one of the possibilities (I have 3 'sources' for RECON data) - either a mechanical problem and RECON returned to SJU, or more likely - a major data link outage and the only info NHC got was via SATCOM (Voice). I already 'called it' T.C. #8 earlier this AM on my blog, and will have another Interim update in a couple hours...

Steve
The note about it in the discussion strongly suggests data link outage as opposed to mechanical problems....


Quoting 20. Climate175:

Yep I am waiting for that one, next pass you will see it clearly.


Signal has been restored on the ISS ...about another 20 minutes as we can see the Atlantic again.
Hopefully both storms?

Okay, maybe more than 20 minutes ...but not much more
GFS Has changed,now the Caribbean LOW forms,moves over Cuba,then OUT to sea..no USA strike this run..
Quoting 61. weatherlover94:

Anybody think Gonzalo could travel farther west and pull a Hazel ?
Looking at the current layout, I doubt it.

Quoting 73. bigwes6844:

Here He Comes!



You called it before. Good job!
Wouldn't be surprise something forms off the cold front in the gulf or Caribbean by later this week
Just wanted to post this nonsense and see if people can put out the word that this is nonsense.

http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines/breaking-cat egory-6-super-typhoon-to-hit-japan-waves-at-least- 50-feet-high-cloud-field-would-cross-entire-us

Is this just a misguided "news" site, or one meant to deliberately mislead people?
Quoting 75. txjac:



Signal has been restored on the ISS ...about another 20 minutes as we can see the Atlantic again.
Hopefully both storms?

Okay, maybe more than 20 minutes ...but not much more
Yeah, about to go over South America now. Everyone go here and watch if you want to see TS Gonzalo on ISSLink
Quoting 59. CybrTeddy:

Two named storms at once? Pretty bold for 2014.


Will they boldly go where no fish has gone before? lol
Quoting 78. Grothar:



You called it before. Good job!
nope u called it first lol
84. JRRP
Quoting CaribBoy:
Time to celebrate? xD (track a little too south of me though... :/)

you deserved it
you deserved it
Should be right over my island im at 18.2 here in st.thomas the word is already out about the possibility of a hurricane
Gonzalo is looking more like a STS then a TS right now
Gonzalo won't get anywhere close to the U.S.

There's a parade of fronts coming down the Eastcoast out into the Atlantic.

The SW storm coming together, look At The Satellite In And Analysis It.
Quoting 81. Climate175:

Yeah, about to go over South America now. Everyone go here and watch if you want to see TS Gonzalo on ISSLink


Almost there ...
91. JRRP
the blog today
Quoting 83. bigwes6844:

nope u called it first lol


But that was 9 days ago. :)
Wow, only need 2 more storms to get to I now.... lol ....
Quoting 72. BahaHurican:

Small deviation to the north would bring the centre right over you, though. If it's strengthening quickly enough, that could happen. [looking on the bright side.... :o)]
Im here Baha.Love you.Congratulations your TW is now a 40 mph storm.Great.
Quoting 91. JRRP:

the blog today



I see waldo, or maybe it's Alfred E Neuman hmm
Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:

Gonzalo won't get anywhere close to the U.S.

There's a parade of fronts coming down the Eastcoast out into the Atlantic.


Captain Trough Save the U.S is working over time to keep these storms away.Nothing getting through this shield!.
Quoting Ameister12:
(Dunno if any of you really care since we have Gonzalo now, but...)

Latest D2 convective outlook has ramped up the wording significantly for tomorrow. Now mentioning the treat for "Tornadoes... a couple of which could be strong." Earlier it was only "isolated small tornadoes."

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
AND GULF COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS ON
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL-TILT UPPER TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER-MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY.

...MID-SOUTH/LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON MONDAY
INCLUDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES...INCLUDING
A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO TN VALLEY. WHILE A HIGHER-END SLIGHT
RISK /ENHANCED SLIGHT EQUIVALENT/ WILL CURRENTLY BE
MAINTAINED...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK
UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

A SQUALL LINE WITH AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE POTENTIAL /DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADO/ IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX VICINITY. CONTRIBUTIONS TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ASIDE...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG 45-60 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE A STEADY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY
RESULT IN UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST VICINITY...WITH INCREASINGLY PREVALENT
LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY MIDDAY.

INITIALLY...MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED
NEAR THE EARLY-DAY SQUALL LINE...WITH WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
INITIALLY TENDING TO BE LIMITED BY 1/ CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND 2/ ASCENT TENDING TO BE MAXIMIZED NEAR/BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPING/DEEPENING
SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. SUCH
A SCENARIO /SQUALL LINE-PRECEDING DEVELOPMENT/ COULD INITIALLY OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHEAST LA/FAR EASTERN AR INTO MUCH OF MS/WESTERN TN AND
EVENTUALLY AL BY EVENING COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE MAY APPROACH 1500 J/KG OVER A
PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF MO/IL/INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MID/UPPER WINDS TO BACK WITH TIME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND SIZABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF AN OVERALL
MIXED-MOVED OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHO AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND SOME TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AMID A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SRH ENVIRONMENT. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK
UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS PENDING SUBSEQUENT EARLY-DAY SQUALL LINE
DETAILS...ALONG WITH A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN APPRECIABLE WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW.


THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF
COASTAL STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH NORTHWARD/EASTWARD EXTENT MONDAY
NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/12/2014


YES!!!!!!!!!!!
ISS is flying over Gonzalo now.
Quoting 92. Grothar:



But that was 9 days ago. :)
And the winnner is..................................
Looks like ISS is overflying now...
Gonzalo is so pretty on ISS !
103. JRRP
Quoting 62901IL:


YES!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting 97. washingtonian115:

Captain Trough Save the U.S is working over time to keep these storms away.Nothing getting through this shield!.


Nope when there's evil afoot you can bet Captain Trough will swoop in to save the day. The second greatest super hero of our time.
Quoting 104. win1gamegiantsplease:



Nope when there's evil afoot you can bet Captain Trough will swoop in to save the day. The second greatest super hero of our time.
I know storm chasers are mad but he has to do what he feels like is right.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remembered the HWRF showed a hurricane impacting P.R.I'm still not buying it just yet.
It nught, ib 48 hours a cat 1, according to ships model, by then it is supposed to skirting east coadt of the island..
107. JRRP
Quoting 104. win1gamegiantsplease:



Nope when there's evil afoot you can bet Captain Trough will swoop in to save the day. The second greatest super hero of our time.
Ahem..
Fay is now a hurricane. 5th hurricane of the year.
Quoting 64. BahaHurican:

You guys may actually get a shower or two on the south side, but this looks like Caribboy's game for a change.... lol ... hope he's enjoying the buildup!




Yeah... for a change xD

This storm really makes me happy this afternoon!!
Quoting 109. Andrebrooks:

Fay is now a hurricane. 5th hurricane of the year.
That's not official.
I just saw TS Gonzalo on the ISS live stream and now I'll have a flyover in a couple of minutes. I'm out for a few to spot the ISS over the UK.
18z SHIPS brings Gonzalo to 107kt in 120hr.

V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 51 59 69 77 86 94 100 103 107

18z LGEM brings it to 96kt in 120hr.

V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 42 46 50 58 62 70 77 84 89 94 96
Let's notice that Gonzalo is not a sheared looking TS... unlike many others lately...
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Fay is now a hurricane. 5th hurricane of the year.

What, hurricane? there's now way that can be right, can it?

Sez who?
Quoting 86. Tazmanian:

Gonzalo is looking more like a STS then a TS right now
Just looked at the ISS flyover, and i'd say it looks like a TS more than an STS. There's a neat little kernel of TStorm activity right over what appears to be the centre. Does look like most of the Tstorms are south of that, though. :o/

Quoting 94. prcane4you:

Im here Baha.Love you.Congratulations your TW is now a 40 mph storm.Great.
Thanks, though I didn't do much this time.... lol ... I never really want more than that if the storm's going to hit land, anyway. Once it's going OTS I love seeing the fullblown storms with superdeveloped eye and CDO. A 40kt TS over the NE Antilles is great to me.

prcane, you should understand that while I am enthusiastic about storm formation and the entire TC process, I've experienced enough of the damage caused by these storms not to be excited / pleased that one will hit a populated area. If you have lived in PR long enough you likely feel the same way about the damage part....
117. JRRP
Quoting 96. Grothar:






The track may shift a little bit north
Quoting 62901IL:

What, hurricane? there's now way that can be right, can it?


Sez who?


ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL072014 10/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 62 59 45 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Actually,l I'm worry that if anything forns in the western Caribbean could move east or east north east towards the eastern caribbean, pulling a Lenny, 1999...
Actually,l I'm worry that if anything forns in the western Caribbean could move east or east north east towards the eastern caribbean, pulling a Lenny, 1999...
Hey Cariiboy I hope your ready for some exciting weather here in St.thomas were getting ready for a possible hurricane
Invest 91L looks equally as impressive ( on the ISS stream) huge....
Quoting Tazmanian:
Gonzalo is looking more like a STS then a TS right now

hi tazzy-taz.
I disagree.
Quoting 104. win1gamegiantsplease:



Nope when there's evil afoot you can bet Captain Trough will swoop in to save the day. The second greatest super hero of our time.


Quoting 108. Climate175:

Ahem..


Tadadaaa...Link
What is 107kt?.
127. txjac
Quoting 123. superpete:

Invest 91L looks equally as impressive ( on the ISS stream) huge....


Yea, I totally enjoyed seeing it that way ...better than the radar.
Next pass we should see Fay

Capt trough east coast repel - ACTIVATE!!

Quoting 102. Climate175:

Gonzalo is so pretty on ISS !


Link??? :-)
Still looks like dry air is going to keep on weak side in short term.


AL, 07, 2014101218, , BEST, 0, 343N, 619W, 65, 986, HU
Quoting 130. centex:

Still looks like dry air is going to keep on weak side in short term.


Yes those are some bright yellows too
Quoting 122. rockcity340:

Hey Cariiboy I hope your ready for some exciting weather here in St.thomas were getting ready for a possible hurricane


Yes, more than ready!!
Quoting 126. washingtonian115:

What is 107kt?.

Close to 125mph. High end cat 3.
Quoting TheEyeiscalm:

Capt trough east coast repel - ACTIVATE!!


Thunder powers-ACTIVATE!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 129. CaribBoy:



Link??? :-)
Sorry CaribBoy, it has left there now.
137. 882MB
Quoting 107. JRRP:




Hey JRRP, can I have the link to that satellite please and thanks.
Quoting 127. txjac:


Yea, I totally enjoyed seeing it that way ...better than the radar.
Next pass we should see Fay


The ISS has demonstrated the ability to to give instant storm recon'..at +27,000 mph
Quoting 131. WeatherNerdPR:

AL, 07, 2014101218, , BEST, 0, 343N, 619W, 65, 986, HU
Fay has become a hurricane.That's 6 hurricanes.4 more than 2013.Now let's see if we can get another major.

Quoting 134. Ameister12:


Close to 125mph. High end cat 3.
Thank you!
Fay is a hurricane
Quoting 123. superpete:

Invest 91L looks equally as impressive ( on the ISS stream) huge....
2:05 TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N40W
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N41W TO 9N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS BENEATH THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT COVER THE
AREA FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

I know they took down 2/5 day probabilities on this, but I am still expecting we will eventually see something named from this system, maybe in the 7 -10 day time frame...
Quoting 92. Grothar:



But that was 9 days ago. :)
see told ya! lol u da man!
We shall see Hurricane Fay on the ISS in about an Hour.
It's getting that "coma" shape.

145. JRRP
Quoting 882MB:


Hey JRRP, can I have the link to that satellite please and thanks.

sure.. why not..
Quoting 126. washingtonian115:

What is 107kt?.

It's about 125. TS force winds in knots are usually about 5 less in mph, hurricane about 10, intense hurricanes around 15-20

100 kt = 115mph
105 kt = 120 mph
115 kt = 135 (actually a little less 133)
120 kt = 140 mph
Quoting 144. Grothar:

It's getting that "coma" shape.


explosive storms around the COC. sign of strengthening


Very similar track possible
Quoting 146. win1gamegiantsplease:


It's about 125. TS force winds in knots are usually about 5 less in mph, hurricane about 10, intense hurricanes around 15-20

100 kt = 115mph
105 kt = 120 mph
115 kt = 135 (actually a little less 133)
120 kt = 140 mph
Thank you.

I know CyberTed is not on but he did say that this season will have quality vs last year.
Does anyone have an update on who's the clubhouse leader on the 2014 storm predictions? I think a week or two ago, when various people declared the Atlantic dead and were piling dirt on it, a couple people staked claims to being the winner.
Quoting EdwardinAlaska:
Does anyone have an update on who's the clubhouse leader on the 2014 storm predictions? I think a week or two ago, when various people declared the Atlantic dead and were piling dirt on it, a couple people staked claims to being the winner.

I don't.
Quoting 151. washingtonian115:

Thank you.

I know CyberTed is not on but he did say that this season will have quality vs last year.


No problem, and yea at this time last year it was 0-5. Tonight begins a rough stretch in our schedule.
lol, I know what you meant, but this is 2014 and we have seen the "coma" too many times this season.

Quoting 144. Grothar:

It's getting that "coma" shape.




Fay...

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
hope they dont get too much. if they do they might have carib. boy walk the plank!
240 hours out. I don't like looking at these that far out. I never know if I am going to be around.


never touches florida but the bahama'sgets it fully............................................. .....
Quoting BrianChidester:
Just wanted to post this nonsense and see if people can put out the word that this is nonsense.

http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines/breaking-cat egory-6-super-typhoon-to-hit-japan-waves-at-least- 50-feet-high-cloud-field-would-cross-entire-us

Is this just a misguided "news" site, or one meant to deliberately mislead people?
Just another tin foil hat web site. Maybe the "category 6" typhoon should have given you a clue...