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Fay Skirts Bermuda; Vongfong Pounds Okinawa; Hudhud Bearing Down on India

By: Jeff Masters 5:13 PM GMT on October 11, 2014

Tropical Storm Fay is here, the sixth named storm of this quiet 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Fay's formation date of October 10 comes just over a month later than the typical September 8 formation date for the season's sixth named storm. Bermuda is the only land area Fay poses a threat to, and the 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Bermuda an 87% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, with the strongest winds expected to affect the island Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed the typical view of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear, with a surface circulation nearly exposed to view, and the heavy thunderstorms restricted to one quadrant--to the northwest. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 29°C (84°F), and wind shear was high, 20 - 25 knots. Fay will recurve to the northeast out to sea on Sunday without troubling any other land areas.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Fay.

Invest 90L will bring heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday morning (Invest 90L) was headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops showed 90L had a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms were beginning to grow more organized. Water vapor satellite loops show a good degree of dry air surrounding 90L, and this dry air is retarding development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28.5°C (83°F), and wind shear was moderate, 10 - 20 knots. These conditions are favorable for slow development. The 8 am Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for slow development through Monday, with light to moderate wind shear and SSTs near 29°C (84°F)--though the atmosphere is expected to dry as the disturbance moves past Puerto Rico on Monday. Two of our three of our reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation--GFS and UKMET models--showed 90L developing by the middle of next week in their 12Z and 00Z Saturday runs, respectively. When multiple models predict development, the odds of formation are increased. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 60%, respectively. 90L's west-northwest trajectory will bring heavy rains over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday, and these rains will spread westwards to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Sunday night, and to the eastern Dominican Republic on Monday. Interaction with the high terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may slow down development on Monday and Tuesday. The storm's center will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, and near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. After that time, the vast majority of the members of the GFS and European ensemble model show 90L getting caught up in a trough of low pressure and scooting to the north and then northeast, possibly putting Bermuda at risk. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 90L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L near the Lesser Antilles.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Hudhud approaching India
Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal continues to steadily intensify as it heads west-northwest at 7 mph towards India, with sustained winds estimated at 125 mph at 8 am EDT Saturday. Wind shear has fallen to a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and Hudhud is over very warm waters of 30.5°C (87°F)--conditions which favor continued intensification until landfall. Satellite loops and radar out of Visakhapatnam, India show an impressive storm with plenty of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops and a large 24-mile diameter eye. On Saturday morning (U.S. EDT time), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was forecasting that Hudhud would have sustained winds of 170 - 180 kph (105 - 110 mph) at landfall, making it a strong Category 2 storm. JTWC was forecasting a stronger storm--Category 4 with 135 mph winds. IMD predicted a storm surge of 1 - 2 meters (3.3 - 6.6 feet) would occur near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. With warmer sea surface temperatures under the storm and wind shear in the 10 - 15 knot range, landfall as a Category 3 cyclone appears the most likely scenario when Hudhud hits the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur on Sunday, October 12, near 06 UTC (2 am EDT.) Odisha was struck in 2013 by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Phailin, which killed 45 people and did $700 million in damage. This death toll was extremely low, considering this is a region where 10,000 people died in a similar-strength cyclone in 1999.

Latest Hudhud warnings for India from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Latest Hudhud advisory from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Latest India radar.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Hudhud as seen by radar out of Visakhapatnam, India at 16:20 UTC (12:20 pm EDT.)

Okinawa drenched and battered by Vongfong
Japan's Okinawa Island continues to take an epic battering from Typhoon Vongfong as the powerful storm steams slowly north-northwestwards at 10 mph. At 8 am EDT Saturday, Vonfong had weakened to a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds, and at approximately 11 am EDT, the eye of the storm passed over northern Okinawa. Tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph of greater began buffeting Okinawa at 5:39 am EDT Friday (6:39 pm local time), and continued through 7:54 am local time Saturday--a span of over 13 hours--with only 10 minutes of slight relaxation in the winds below tropical storm-force (to 36 - 38 mph.) During this period, Okinawa reached sustained winds of up to 64 mph, with gusts as high as 89 mph, and the pressure bottomed out at 950 mb at 11:15 pm local time. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) AMeDAS site at Kunigami on the northern end of Okinawa reported 20.83" (529.0 mm) of rain in the past 48 hours. In second place was nearby Higashi, with 17.50" (444.5 mm) in the 48 hours. The capital of Okinawa, Naha, got 9.94" (252.5 mm) in 48 hours.


Figure 4. The northern portion of Vongfong's eyewall was all that remained of the storm's eyewall as the eye of the storm moved over the northern portion of Okinawa at 00:45 local time Sunday (11:45 am EDT.) Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Satellite loops and Japanese radar show that Vongfong's eyewall has collapsed, and the storm is rapidly weakening due to high wind shear and cooling waters. Tropical storm-force winds will continue to affect Okinawa intermittently through Sunday morning local time, but will not be as strong as what was experienced when the typhoon was approaching the island. Vongfong should continue to weaken and be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds when it makes landfall on the main Japanese island of Kyushu near 8 pm U.S. EDT time Sunday evening (00 UTC Monday.) Heavy rains from Vongfong will fall on soils already saturated by Typhoon Phanfone's rains last week, which could lead to much more severe flooding than was observed for Phanfone. Vongfong will also be moving slower than Phanfone was, potentially leading to higher rainfall amounts.

Storm Chaser James Reynolds is on Okinawa, and is posting updates and images to his Twitter feed.


Video 1. The cameras on the International Space Station captured this video of Super Typhoon Vongfong on October 9, 2014. The first 1.5 minutes is one of the most spectacular orbital pass videos of a tropical cyclone ever filmed. At the time, Vongfong was a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has his take on the tropics in a Saturday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 492. 3211976:

Typical October surprise in the making.

If this one hit PR it will be the first Hurricane to hit PR in October since 1867; San Narciso a cat 4 that developed at the a similar location.


Wow, I didn't know that stat.It certain has the potential to become a hurricane especially after we witness what Fay has done. But what is holding it back is the lack of outflow to it North. If it can establish that and push back the dry air then conditions will be ripe.
00z UKMET Ensembles..

stay alert for this front folks this coming week.............................................. .....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.


$$
505. SLU
At 1200 UTC, 12 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL90) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 16.7°N and 57.4°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 280 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.
I saw a location at 115 ft. elevation in Bermuda that had 60 mph sustained winds with a gust to 86 mph.
Most locations had winds much lower than that.

Quoting 500. hydrus:

Yep..I have seen that a few times.
Looks like a tropical storm. Looks better than some of our hurricanes. Not going to say names.......(Bertha)
Quoting 496. WeatherNerdPR:


The storm passed really close to Bermuda, according to the NHC gusts of up to 82mph were recorded. There were a lot of updrafts apparent in satellite imagery as it passed over the island, wouldn't surprise me if it briefly reached hurricane strength.
Imo Fay was a hurricane.
Unlike the last few years 90L is wasting no time getting organized.A really nice looking storm.The Euro showed this originally as a intensifying storm not sure why it backed out.
might be tornado's around Tex-Ark Monday...stay alert with this front passing thru..................


I approve
514. BDAwx
I laugh a little at this - Just read that Commissioner's Point in Dockyard at 150ft above sea level measured winds of 115mph gusting to 155mph. The Bermuda Weather Service is checking these measurements for validity because that suite of instruments showed other signs of malfunctioning during the height of the storm.

Quoting 506. Sfloridacat5:

I saw a location at 115 ft. elevation in Bermuda that had 60 mph sustained winds with a gust to 86 mph.
Most locations had winds much lower than that.




That was at my house :D. There was a station "Magnolia Hall" that had 81mph sustained winds with a gust to 109mph about a mile up the road from there at about the same time. I'm not sure the status of their PWS but I could discuss the siting and set up of the one you mentioned because its mine lol.
Quoting BDAwx:
I laugh a little at this - Just read that Commissioner's Point in Dockyard at 150ft above sea level measured winds of 115mph gusting to 155mph. The Bermuda Weather Service is checking these measurements for validity because that suite of instruments showed other signs of malfunctioning during the height of the storm.



That was at my house :D. There was a station "Magnolia Hall" that had 81mph sustained winds with a gust to 109mph about a mile up the road from there at about the same time. I'm not sure the status of their PWS but I could discuss the siting and set up of the one you mentioned because its mine lol.


155 mph winds - broken equipment or isolated tornado.
155 mph winds would blow down almost all of the trees and leave a damage path similar to a tornado.
90L looks like a shrimp
this coming front is almost like a tropical storm on land,gonna be some high winds with this............
WOW! OCTOBER 12, 2014

Today seems to be the busiest day in the Atlantic tropics for the 2014 hurricane season.. so far.

Fay gave Bermuda 61MPH sustained winds and gusts to 82MPH~!

90L appears to be developing into a tropical cyclone, and we might have Gonzalo threatening the Leeward Islands and P.R. very soon!

The Atlantic basin is alive in October - not shutdown yet!
520. BDAwx
Quoting 516. Sfloridacat5:



155 mph winds - broken equipment or isolated tornado.
155 mph winds would blow down almost all of the trees and leave a damage path similar to a tornado.


Yeah that's why I had to laugh a little. But if they somehow confirm that measurement I would need an explanation of what caused it or I'm not buying it.


this is a T.D I GAVE IT 100%
Quoting 521. hurricanes2018:



this is a T.D I GAVE IT 100%
I believe its a ts with 45mph winds.
Hard to tell from the fist few visible frames whether 90L has Earth relative West winds South of the center, but suspect it will by the time aircraft arrives this afternoon.

Assuming it gets named eventually, won't be the most boring hurricane season since 1986.
Quoting 478. ryang:

Biggest problem for 90L will be all that dry air north of it.




:-((((
Do we still have 91L out there as an invest
Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

90L looks like a shrimp


Soon with some tropical fruit salsa & Rum infused Caribbean BBQ glaze
Quoting 526. superpete:


Soon with some tropical fruit salsa & Rum infused Caribbean BBQ glaze
That sounds delicious :).
Good Sunday hello. Well, a lot of weather happened while I was away for the weekend ...

Here's a Fay video from Bermuda some hours ago. Quite a lot of howling! Winds are picking up at 0:55.

Wake me up,,,,when October ends.

Atlantic is looking quite impressive. What's about this large wave behind 90L?


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 121144
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located just northeast of Bermuda.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a small but well-defined low
pressure system located about 275 miles east of the Leeward Islands
has continued to increase and become better organized during the
past several hours. Environmental and ocean conditions are expected
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form later today while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
move across the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

SYNOPSIS 2014101200

P46L … 91L (No longer an official Invest)
13N, 38W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Still depicts some initial elongation to the south, but not as much as in yesterday’s forecast. (Still depicts a weak failed P47L to the southwest for a couple days, but the connection with P46L is now less.) Consolidates during the first day with vorticity to the south. Tracks slowly to the northwest as a weak pouch. Turns toward the NNE and weakens after 108 hours.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, but with one major difference. GFS depicts the southern portion not only with higher OW but also as the primary circulation center with the most distinct CL-trough intersection, so I now track the southern portion from the start.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, but becomes more intense. OW peaks at about 7x10-9 s-2 during the 60-84 hour period.

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -2.3 1.6 v700 120h
GFS -1.0 2.0 v700 120h
UKMET -2.0 2.3 v700 120h
NAVGEM
HWGEN
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Not in a hurry for a change, moving due west, looks around 16.5 N ....
Quoting barbamz:

(Click the picture to enlarge.) Atlantic is looking quite impressive. What's about this large wave behind 90L?



I mentioned this a few posts down. I'm almost positive it had an X over it yesterday.
Dropped by the NHC.
Why Atlantic Ocean doesn't want to give us a storm ? We have all conditions highly favorable on the caribbean, and 90 L doesn't developp ! Now this is dry air. It could rapidly intensify, but nothing ! WTF !
ISS needs to go over 90L again.
Quoting BDAwx:


Yeah that's why I had to laugh a little. But if they somehow confirm that measurement I would need an explanation of what caused it or I'm not buying it.
My PWS is currently showing a temperature of 39F and winds of 92 mph...in SE Alabama. I have a new one on order. It's been up for three years and decided to bite the bag yesterday. Consumer grade weather stations do break, even just sitting there. I imagine that one being affected by a strong TS is even more likely to give bad readings.
I'll be suprised if the NHC waits until recon gets into 90L to upgrade it to a T.D.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I mentioned this a few posts down. I'm almost positive it had an X over it yesterday.
Dropped by the NHC.
It did have an X but, even when it did, the NWS said it was unlikely to develop. Apparently it's just become even more unlikely.
Quoting 540. Sfloridacat5:

I'll be suprised if the NHC waits until recon gets into 90L to upgrade it to a T.D.
Something tells me that they'll wait.I can't wait until they finally get in there and I think they take off at around 1:00 this afternoon.A little to late.
maybe invest 90L WILL be a T.D BY 11AM!
First person to person transmission of Ebola in the U.S.
Hospital worker that was caring for Duncan (Dallas Tx.)
90L reminds me a lot of Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty in 2012. Rapidly intensified off the Australian coast, fell apart, then reorganized again. The BOM was behind the curve on that storm its whole life. Regardless, the banding type features it appears to have remind me of rusty.
Quoting 543. hurricanes2018:

maybe invest 90L WILL be a T.D BY 11AM!
I would think straight to TS, but you know how the NHC is.
Come on back down yonder here Fall, tyvm'


NOLA disco,



Long term...
changes on the way. A shortwave trough will dig over The Rockies with
cyclogenisis beginning tonight. A 560mb low pressure center is
prognosticated by the GFS beginning around midnight tonight over the OK
Panhandle. A squall looks to form in East Texas north to Arkansas around
noon on Monday and move eastward. Models in good agreement on this
solution with some differences in timing with the GFS and NAM
moving closer to the Euro solution over the last few days. The
Euro has been the slower of the models with the NAM being the most
temporally aggressive. The squall line ahead of the cold front
should enter the klix warning area around 6pm and exit our far
east warning area by early Tuesday morning. With this in mind...
there is enough instability and energy for some cells to develop
ahead of the squall line beginning Monday afternoon. Taking a look
at some severe parameters indicate the best chance for severe
weather will be in our SW MS counties northward to the MS/Tennessee
border. Local cape forecast to be 1200 j/kg with enough shear to
warrant the possibility of an isolated tornado. The best helicity
is prognosticated to be in East Texas then moving to north MS. Looking upward
shows a portion of our area in the rr quadrant of a 120kt jet with
some upper level divergence. Severe weather will be possible along
and ahead of the squall line Monday evening in the west through
early Tuesday morning in the east. Gusty winds...brief torrential
rain... and isolated tornadoes are the main threat with the
highest chance west of I-55 and in our SW MS counties and border
la parishes. Storm Prediction Center has the entire warning area under a slight risk
with a total severe probability of 30 percent in SW MS. Cold air
advection after the front will bring much drier air into the
region. Lows will dip into the upper 40s north and west of Lake
Pontchartrain and 50s south of the lake and the MS Gulf Coast.

&&
Quoting washingtonian115:
Something tells me that they'll wait.I can't wait until they finally get in there and I think they take off at around 1:00 this afternoon.A little to late.


Yeah, the system will be going through the Islands early tomorrow.



ON LAND!! WINDS DOWN TO 120 MPH!
Quoting 546. Climate175:

I would think straight to TS, but you know how the NHC is.
maybe waiting for a Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft to go in the storm frist!!

Quoting 548. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, the system will be going through the Islands early tomorrow.
We'll see what the 11:00 advisory brings but I highly doubt they'll upgrade.But for the sake pf preparations they'll probably pull the trigger.
Typhoon Vongfong Hits Okinawa
AP
Posted: 10/11/2014 2:49 am EDT


TOKYO (AP) — A powerful typhoon poured heavy rains over Japan's southern island of Okinawa and was aiming at the next island of Kyushu on Sunday, becoming the second severe storm to hit in a week.

At least 35 people have been reported injured in Okinawa and Kyushu, where authorities told 150,000 people to evacuate, as the typhoon toppled trees, flooded streets and cut power to more than 60,000 homes.

Typhoon Vongfong, packing winds of up to 180 kilometers (110 miles) per hour, has been downgraded from a "super-typhoon" and was on course to reach Kyushu by Monday. Japan's Meteorological Agency said it could reach the Tokyo area Tuesday, gradually losing strength as it moves up the archipelago.

Authorities issued landslide warnings and strong winds knocked out power lines, temporarily halting bullet train service for several hours on Kyushu.

Last week's typhoon killed three U.S. airmen who were washed out at sea in Okinawa, home to about half of the roughly 50,000 American troops stationed in Japan.

The U.S. military instructed service personnel and their families to remain indoors Sunday until strong winds and rain subsided and said crews were out to assess damage, including broken glass and toppled power lines.

Good morning. Not bad for October.





Get them ready!
Quoting washingtonian115:
We'll see what the 11:00 advisory brings but I highly doubt they'll upgrade.But for the sake pf preparations they'll probably pull the trigger.


They'll have to go straight to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Islands.

Tropical Storm Warning:
An announcement that sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.


Quoting 544. Sfloridacat5:

First person to person transmission of Ebola in the U.S.
Hospital worker that was caring for Duncan (Dallas Tx.)

yes and the very strange thing is..she WAS wearing protective gear....makes you wonder just how virulent this virus really is huh
I see the Euro pieced it together again that 90L will probably develop.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system
since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
fantasyland timewise but............................................... .................................
It already looks like a depression.


563. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121436
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system
since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system
since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

wow!!! lets dance!!
well the storm the GFS is forecasting for the NYC area in 2 weeks reminds me of................................................ ..............Sandy developed from a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea on October 22, quickly strengthened, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Sandy six hours later. Sandy moved slowly northward toward the Greater Antilles and gradually intensified. On October 24, Sandy became a hurricane, made landfall near Kingston, Jamaica, re-emerged a few hours later into the Caribbean Sea and strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. On October 25, Sandy hit Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 26, Sandy moved through the Bahamas.[6] On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm and then restrengthened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 29, Sandy curved north-northwest and then[7] moved ashore near Brigantine, New Jersey, just to the northeast of Atlantic City, as a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.[1][8]
Stewart is on the case! and I see the Euro is back to making 90L a hurricane.Could get nasty for Bermuda again.What is the likely hood of Bermuda being hit again?
FAY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 12
Location: 34.0°N 62.8°W
Moving: NE at 24 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
Quoting hurricanes2018:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system
since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

wow!!! lets dance!!


But it still looks like they're going to wait until Recon gets into the system later today to upgrade it.
I'm not sure if that's the best decision, but what do I know?
Quoting 564. hurricanes2018:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fay, located northeast of Bermuda.

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure system located east of the Leeward Islands.

Updated: The small low pressure system located a couple of hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands is continuing to show signs of
organization. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating the system this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression or a tropical storm has formed. Environmental
and ocean conditions are expected to generally be conducive for
additional development while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Interests from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system
since tropical storm warnings and watches could be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
later this morning or afternoon. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are expected to move across
the Leeward Islands starting later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

wow!!! lets dance!!
wow lets hope it does take that northern jog
Quoting 566. washingtonian115:

Stewart is on the case! and I see the Euro is back to making 90L a hurricane.Could get nasty for Bermuda again.What is the likely hood of Bermuda being hit again?
He certainly is!
dagnabbit- Dallas nurse tested positive-
Quoting 573. aquak9:

dagnabbit- Dallas nurse tested positive-
i better not hangout at dallas anymore!
Quoting Climate175:
He certainly is!



The system is about 18 hours (effects felt much sooner) from the Islands, but they still need to wait for recon. Based on satellite alone, it should be upgraded to at least a T.D.
NHC is being conservative again.What was that storm they gave a name to despite it not meeting all the requirements?.I can't think of it right now..
Quoting LargoFl:


GFS hasn't backed up the time line any from yesterday, which worries me as far as trusting it
12Z yesterday, 18z, 00Z, 06Z today all show the low near Florida around 260 hours.

That's not a good sign. But all we can do is wait and see.
"I was tempted to classify the system as a
hurricane"

Sometimes you have to give into temptation...
584. SLU
Closed circulation, persistent and organised thunderstorms, well defined center, SAB classification of T1.5/1.5 25kts. I see no reason why 90L wasn't numbered at 11am until the more accurate estimate from the RECON which might very well find a TS.
"The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical,
and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is
better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed
mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a
hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support
an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is
anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to
hurricane status.
A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the
cyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in
about 24 hours.
"

Are Dvorak estimates really so reliable that Avila would choose to follow them instead of going with his own conclusions? Did he forget how awful Bertha looked as a hurricane?
Quoting 575. hurricanes2018:

i better not hangout at dallas anymore!


Just go to Cowboys Stadium, you can't catch anything there. (Well besides Dez)

90L is close if not already a depression. Bermuda might have to be on the lookout yet again. Upper level winds are a little less harsh in the WCarib in time for the MJO. Crazy if we see more named storms in October than September once this front moves out.
Quoting 579. Grothar:


Not Bad.Watch out Bermuda!.
Bermuda just got pounded with Fay now brother Gonzalo about to come pound once again.
invest 90L will go to tropical storm later
not so sure 2018 it is struggling with carib.boys dry air noticed the inner side of the system is protected by deep thunderstorms
October in the past few years...






Sandy was part of a 5 storm October
Tomas and Richard were part of a 5 HURRICANE October
Quoting 585. WeatherNerdPR:

"The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical,
and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is
better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed
mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a
hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support
an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is
anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to
hurricane status.
A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the
cyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in
about 24 hours.
"

Are Dvorak estimates really so reliable that Avila would choose to follow them instead of going with his own conclusions? Did he forget how awful Bertha looked as a hurricane?
Poor Fay is the only name in the list that is regularly use that haven't become a hurricane. I hope they classiffy her at last minute.
Quoting 585. WeatherNerdPR:

"The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical,
and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is
better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed
mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a
hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support
an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is
anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to
hurricane status.
A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the
cyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in
about 24 hours.
"

Are Dvorak estimates really so reliable that Avila would choose to follow them instead of going with his own conclusions? Did he forget how awful Bertha looked as a hurricane?
Not sure exactly where in Bermuda my daughter's friend is but he said winds @ 100 mph were recorded from Fay. Sounds like a hurricane to me.
East Haven, Connecticut 11:14 AM EDT on October 12, 2014
56 �F Partly Cloudy cold morning at my house!
Quoting 562. Grothar:

It already looks like a depression.



man yall woke me up fast! It looks like a tropical storm to me Gro
They'll probably classify Fay a hurricane in post season.Had she been headed for somewhere in the U.S I'm sure they would have up-graded her.
The SJ weather service said this morning 90L didn't even warrant a flood watch for PR on Monday. Interesting to see what they say later on today.
Is the center trying to race ahead of the MLC, or is just and outflow boundary?


Outflow Boundries
Gonzalo is that you?
The international airport had winds of 61 gusting to 82 mph earlier this morning. Fay did pack some pretty stout winds for a crappy looking system. I think the island only got around 2 inches of rain from this rather "dry" tropical system

Link
yep right on time climatology wise

lol

Just to be on the safe side, Antigua should issue an invest warning. Come on guys (and ALL of the NHC hurricane specialists are, unbelievably, men), sometimes you don't need to wait on the airplane.
HMMMM
no moderate risk or MD concerning outlook upgrade yet...
The center is wrapping up good so i wouldn't be surprise they issue a special statement of tropical storm Gonzalo formed when the planes get there. My guess 40 mph storm
610. JRRP
wow 90%
611. JLPR2
Looking good but dry air should keep it in check for the moment, it's spitting outflow boundaries.



But it seems to have filled its center once again, so not falling apart. Come on HHs, get in there! XD
613. SLU
Quoting 598. Gearsts:

Is the center trying to race ahead of the MLC, or is just and outflow boundary?



More of an outflow boundary
Quoting 610. JRRP:

wow 90%
should have been 100%!
615. JRRP
Quoting bigwes6844:
should have been 100%!

at least in five days, eh ? ejeje
Quoting 580. Sfloridacat5:



GFS hasn't backed up the time line any from yesterday, which worries me as far as trusting it
12Z yesterday, 18z, 00Z, 06Z today all show the low near Florida around 260 hours.

That's not a good sign. But all we can do is wait and see.
Still 10 day wishcasting, you loose all credibility.
uss america is docked in san francisco...so wanted to see her :)
Quoting SLU:


More of an outflow boundary


Yeah, it did it all day yesterday to the north/northeast fighting off that dry air.

But the core looks pretty wrapped up.
Quoting 580. Sfloridacat5:



GFS hasn't backed up the time line any from yesterday, which worries me as far as trusting it
12Z yesterday, 18z, 00Z, 06Z today all show the low near Florida around 260 hours.

That's not a good sign. But all we can do is wait and see.
yes im not believing it either right now but..its something to watch out for..October can bring some surprises.
Only a hour and 10 minutes to go before the HH take off and get into 90L.
Quoting 511. LargoFl:


This next Cold Front will most likely spell the end of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season once it moves through Florida, that is unless something develops on the tail end in the SW Caribbean.
The amplified pattern we have seen the past 5 years shows a curved jet stream with a potential cut-off low forming. Also, we have not had an El Nino in 5 years and counting.

Quoting 621. washingtonian115:

Only a hour and 10 minutes to go before the HH take off and get into 90L.
thats gonna be too long! ughhh! I gotta wait till 12 cdt!
Good afternoon,

I've posted a new video discussion for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, October 12th, 2014
Quoting jjjerry1:
Still 10 day wishcasting, you loose all credibility.


You didn't read the post correctly. The point of the post was that "that's not good."
"That's not good" meant that it's bogus and not to be trusted.
I specified why. Because its too far out in time and it keeps the time line the same.
For some reason you missed the meaning of the post.
Interesting, that little red bubble that shows 90% chance keep's dropping to the south and west just a bit.
632. JLPR2
Quoting 628. Skyepony:

Recon just took off for 90L.


Huzzah!
Quoting bigwes6844:
should have been 100%!


When you can see an eye the odds go up to 99%.
Quoting 621. washingtonian115:

Only a hour and 10 minutes to go before the HH take off and get into 90L.


& not 5 mins later they are in the air..

ASCAT doesn't look like it's going to catch it.
Re: palmasdelrio

The SJ weather service said this morning 90L didn't even warrant a flood watch for PR on Monday. Interesting to see what they say later on today.

NWS, San Juan has been pouring cold water on Invest 90L for several days. They were not very impressed with it from get go, and actually said it was unlikely to develop. This is what they said 2 days ago:

"CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HRS."

I wonder who they are getting their information from. The NHC has been consistent with this system for almost a week now -- forecasting cyclogenesis near the islands. They deserve credit for getting this one 100 percent right.

StormHunter





The SJ weather service said this morning 90L didn't even warrant a flood watch for PR on Monday. Interesting to see what they say later on today.

Member Since: May 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
They testing a new BETA page I see.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 121434
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...FAY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 62.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST. FAY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY...BUT
A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA...
BUT THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL...RAINS OVER BERMUDA WILL DIMINISH TODAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY COULD STILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

It doesn't take recon to see that 90L has organized into at least a tropical depression. Expect tropical storm watches and warnings for the Northeast Caribbean islands later this afternoon.

Quoting 629. Sfloridacat5:



You didn't read the post correctly. The point of the post was that "that's not good."
"That's not good" meant that it's bogus and not to be trusted.
I specified why. Because its too far out in time and it keeps the time line the same.
For some reason you missed the meaning of the post.
don't listen to that jerk...
Quoting 632. JLPR2:



Huzzah!

I don't see where the plan of the day has been updated in the last few days.

I've been just watching recon as it happens.

That is AF301 that took off from nearby in the islands. Shouldn't take it long to get there.
ISS is going to fly over the wave behind 90L that was 10/10 before, if you want to see it go here when it get's over it.Link
Special TWO with 90%

Well welcome TS Gonzalo that's what I say

Quoting 624. HurriHistory:

This next Cold Front will most likely spell the end of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season once it moves through Florida, that is unless something develops on the tail end in the SW Caribbean.
yes ,we'll see how things look end of next week,Oct can pull some surprises,especially near the end of the month..i sure remember sandy around the 29th..we'll see what happens
646. JRRP
Dr. Greg Forbes
48 minutes ago
I'll be at The Weather Channel this afternoon and evening for possible local severe weather coverage. Starting at 8PM EDT The Weather Channel has pre-empted its scheduled programs to cover the developing severe weather through the night.

Quoting 647. ncstorm:

Dr. Greg Forbes
48 minutes ago
I'll be at The Weather Channel this afternoon and evening for possible local severe weather coverage. Starting at 8PM EDT The Weather Channel has pre-empted its scheduled programs to cover the developing severe weather through the night.


ok Doc..good luck...that front could have severe storms and possible tornado's with it.
I Know everyone is fixed on these tropical storms in the atlantic but folks from texas eastward, pay special attention to this Front moving across the country...possible severe storms and tornado's over the next few days..stay alert and safe out there.
clipped from weather channel........................................... ....Thunderstorms erupt this evening in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Severe thunderstorms spread across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight, into Arkansas by morning.

- Outbreak of severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will progress across the South Monday and Tuesday.

- The cold front will sweep the recent warmth and humidity out of the region.
Quoting 646. JRRP:


<--------
653. JLPR2
Coming into view, small system.

Quoting Skyepony:

The HH just took off from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. It should get to it [Gonzalo?] in about 30 minutes. My guess is that they will find a 45 to 50 mph tropical storm.

StormHunter.
Quoting 634. Skyepony:



& not 5 mins later they are in the air..

ASCAT doesn't look like it's going to catch it.
It said one o'clock yesterday and that's what I was relying it off of.Calm down.
Remember 92L?
Did it go poof?
Was it the system that fell apart right after being classified or did it never become classified?

Maybe 90L isn't one of those storms that tightens up and explodes after a few hours..
Like TD2..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It doesn't take recon to see that 90L has organized into at least a tropical depression. Expect tropical storm watches and warnings for the Northeast Caribbean islands later this afternoon.

The government of PR is telling or the emergency personnal to report to work 8nmediatly, not great news for a Sunday, in the discovery of America Weekend. JOSE MADE A CLISE Approach to us in October 17, 1999, and remenvered thus isn't a hurricane, perhaos a minimum TS at the most.
Quoting 3211976:
Typical October surprise in the making.

If this one hit PR it will be the first Hurricane to hit PR in October since 1867; San Narciso a cat 4 that developed at the a similar location.
90l still very elongated. If it remains that way much longer, I believe an adjustment to the track may have to be done. It is expected to dip a little to the south, before reacting to the trough which should move it northward. Conditions will be favorable closer to the Bahamas for development.



Quoting Skyepony:

My bad, that wasn't it. Looks like it is still at the airport.

StormHunter
Quoting 655. washingtonian115:

It said one o'clock yesterday and that's what I was relying it off of.Calm down.
Actually it has the 12th for the suspect area. Yesterday was for Fay.
662. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
<--------

Así parece... creo que es difícil que un sistema se mueva hacia el norte con un patrón asi
By Now I am not impressed by 90 L. However, it could have an increase in strength a bit more before approaching the PR (if it in fact approach it!). I am not sure it will impact PR directly. Let's see what the HH plane will encounter. It is a rather slow system. That is the big problem to predict a 36 to 48 hour trajectory as well as to the effect it could have on any of the islands. In any case, this system is a surprise for eastern Caribbean this time of year. Also, October 15 is the second statistical peak for the season. IMO
Quoting 660. StormHunter53:

Quoting Skyepony:

My bad, that wasn't it. Looks like it is still at the airport.

StormHunter
What's still at the air port?.
Quoting LargoFl:
clipped from weather channel........................................... ....Thunderstorms erupt this evening in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

- Severe thunderstorms spread across Oklahoma and north Texas overnight, into Arkansas by morning.

- Outbreak of severe thunderstorms capable of widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will progress across the South Monday and Tuesday.

- The cold front will sweep the recent warmth and humidity out of the region.


Good advice
Severe thunderstorms and their related events (flooding, tornadoes, lightning) kill more people on average than hurricanes in the U.S.
The plane is in the air but not sending data...hope they reconnect before arriving in the storm.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Remember 92L?
Did it go poof?
Was it the system that fell apart right after being classified or did it never become classified?



92L became 02L that day if I remember correctly.
Quoting 665. Sfloridacat5:



Good advice
Severe thunderstorms and their related events (flooding, tornadoes, lightning) kill more people on average than hurricanes in the U.S.


Could be wrong but the only thing that kills more people than lightning is a heat wave.
671. mks

It will take over an hour to get there. It takes about 40-45 minutes of flight time from st.croix to Antigua . So a good chance of about 1:20 flight time to get to the invest...

Quoting StormHunter53:
Quoting Skyepony:

The HH just took off from St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. It should get to it [Gonzalo?] in about 30 minutes. My guess is that they will find a 45 to 50 mph tropical storm.

StormHunter.
if 90L continues at the current speed it will miss the Strong Cold Front headed towards the SE US and the likely hood if It staying in the northern Caribbean is high but lets see what happens. I would not pay attention to the models they have really been terrible this year
I have a feeling after 90L develops we will have another system in the western Caribbean before the season is over
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Could be wrong but the only thing that kills more people than lightning is a heat wave.


I'm talking about combined events related to severe weather (flooding, tornadoes, lightning).
What is more deadly than tropical storms? I posted a link [a while back] to a web page that said rip tides kill more than tropical storms do in Florida. Tried to find that again, no luck, but I did find a rip tide outlook page.
Quoting 670. win1gamegiantsplease:



Could be wrong but the only thing that kills more people than lightning is a heat wave.


Floods kill the most people, lightning very little.
671. mks
4:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2014
0 +

It will take over an hour to get there. It takes about 40-45 minutes of flight time from st.croix to Antigua . So a good chance of about 1:20 flight time to get to the invest...

Thank You.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 675. bappit:

What is more deadly than tropical storms? I posted a link [a while back] to a web page that said rip tides kill more than tropical storms do in Florida. Tried to find that again, no luck, but I did find a rip tide outloook page.


There is a big difference between what does kill, and what is most dangerous though. Things that are dangerous, but not of serious danger, often kill the most because people don't take them seriously. moat people take violent winds and lightning seriously because violent wind and lightning is terrifying whether you are educated about meteorology safety or not. Most people who aren't stuck on pride will seek safety from violent winds and lightning, keeping only a small % of the population at risk to death and injury. However, water, and things like rip currents, are things that aren't necessarily dangerous providing you understand how to deal with them, and respect them. Its carelessness and a lack of education that leads to water deaths, not so much the danger of the event itself.

Storm surge and flash flooding though are different, and are dangerous events regardless of if they are respected or not. The fact that people don't take surge as seriously as wind is why it kills more people. I also think that the fact that as hurricanes produce stronger winds, people that stay behind take cover in interior rooms to hide from the obviously dangerous severe winds, but unfortunately, stronger hurricanes generally produce more surge, so as people hide from wind, the surge comes in and leads to drowning as they hide from the wind. Surge also rises faster and stronger as a hurricane increases in strength, as we saw with Haiyan.
Quoting 643. Climate175:

ISS is going to fly over the wave behind 90L that was 10/10 before, if you want to see it go here when it get's over it.Link


Cool feed right now showing the rapid scat dish spinning away. Looks like the iss will pass very close to 90L hopefully get some good wind data! Link HH should be in there shortly also.
when the hurricane Hunters get to 90L they will find a tropical storm....get prepared folks
682. vis0

Quoting 490. BDAwx:

Just got off the phone with my sister in Bermuda and apparently the house had some significant roof damage. Everyone sounds ok - just shaken up. Either Fay was a stronger storm than advertised or there was some sort of tornado or mesoscale feature that crossed the island.
 THIS word "intrea-pulse gusts" is from my Galacsics dictionary, if there is a real "intrea-pulse gusts" word then disregard my meaning when taking tests or  quiz shows like Jeopardy  :-P (Sar should go on Jeaopardy and just give Sar(castic) replies get the lowest negative score and when told he has -7k points jump up  and celebrate yelling i won a trip to purgatory?, is that "DOWN UNDER? (apologies, i'm sorry to Australians  & those in the True to the universe facing  hemisphere) (sorry if my zilliness interferes with your reading, its that in real life people luv my nutty wit, wherever that's located?)

  The following "intrea-pulse gusts" i state happens naturally in TS to Hurricane formations but
is very rare & even more rare in thunderstorms but can take down planes as radars do not read them correctly as radar reads it as a one sided shear but
in being as if  vertically sliced tornado it has its other (hidden) side, as if a half-wrap around tornado.

Sent TwCh in the 1990s how to use pulsing diodes of certain wavelengths & colours to read these "intrea-pulse gusts", the clues were on the pages i sent
clues to what became a year later (~1991+) known as "Sprites").

i STATE (so blame only me if wrong, if correct run with it as if its yours as long as humanity benefits what do i care) (NOT SCIENCE FACT) under ml-d AOI these  "intrea-pulse gusts" happens more often (ml-d???, search the webnet for ml-d, nyc, AOI to see the area in question ..

(READ the rest on  my blog as i think i'd have another 24 hr banning if i posted the rest here)