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Subtropical Depression 7 Headed Towards Bermuda, but 90L is the One to Watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on October 10, 2014

Subtropical Depression Seven formed in the Atlantic at 11 am EDT Friday. The depression, located about 590 miles south of Bermuda, was headed northwest at 10 mph, and Bermuda is the only land area the storm poses a threat to. A tropical storm watch has been posted for the island, and the 11 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 14% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, with the strongest winds expected to affect the island Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Satellite loops showed STD 7 had very little heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, with most of the action in a curved band well to the north of the center. This is characteristic of a storm that is not fully tropical, thus the designation of the storm as a subtropical depression. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 29°C (84°F), and wind shear was moderate, 5 - 15 knots. These conditions are favorable for slow development, and the depression is likely to get the name Fay Friday evening or Saturday morning. Disturbances getting their start from a cold-cored upper level low like STD 7 have plenty of cold, dry air aloft, which retards development into a tropical system. I expect STD 7 will be named Subtropical Storm Fay instead of Tropical Storm Fay, if it intensifies at expected. STD 7 will recurve to the northeast out to sea on Sunday without troubling any other land areas. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate STD 7 on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Subtropical Depression Seven.

Pay attention to Invest 90L east of the Lesser Antilles
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located about 700 hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday morning has been designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. This disturbance has the potential to be trouble, and needs to be watched carefully. Invest 90L was headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops showed 90L had a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms were poorly organized. Water vapor satellite loops show a good degree of dry air surrounding 90L, and this will retard development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 28.5°C (83°F), and wind shear was light, 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are favorable for development. The 8 am Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that conditions would remain favorable for slow development through Monday, with light to moderate wind shear and SSTs near 29°C (84°F), though the atmosphere is expected to dry as the disturbance moves to the north of Puerto RIco early next week. All three of our reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation, the European, GFS, and UKMET models, showed 90L developing by the middle of next week in their 00Z Friday runs. When multiple models predict development, the odds of formation are increased. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. Given the high model support for 90L's development, I put the 5-day odds of development higher, at 40%. 90L's west-northwest trajectory will carry it to a point about 100 - 200 miles north of Puerto Rico on Monday, and near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L near the Lesser Antilles.

Typhoon Vongfong giving Okinawa an epic battering
Japan's Okinawa Island is receiving an epic battering from Typhoon Vongfong as the powerful storm steams slowly northward at 9 mph. Cooler waters, higher wind shear, and an eyewall replacement cycle had weakened Vongfong to Category 4 strength with 135 mph winds as of 8 am EDT Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) showed Vonfong's central pressure had risen to 925 mb at 9 am EDT Friday, up from a low of 900 mb on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that Vongfong is still an impressive storm with a very large area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent 17-mile diameter eye.


Figure 3. High resolution imagery from the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi NPP satellite shows a highly detailed view of the eye of Super Typhoon Vongfong on October 9, 2014 at 03:55 UTC. At the time, Vongfong was a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Okinawa at risk of a direct hit from Vongfong
Tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph of greater have buffeted Okinawa since 5:39 am EDT Friday (6:39 pm local time), and this large and slow-moving typhoon will keep tropical storm-force winds blowing on the island for an extraordinary long period of time--over 48 straight hours, until approximately 10 am EDT (11 pm local time) Sunday. Wind gusts as high as 81 mph have already been measured on Okinawa, along with sustained winds as high as 59 mph. Our two top models for predicting tropical cyclone tracks, the GFS and European, both predicted with their 06Z and 00Z Friday runs, respectively, that the eye of Vongfong would pass over Okinawa near 15 UTC (11 am EDT) Saturday. With the typhoon moving over waters that will gradually cool, and with wind shear expected to rise from the moderate range (15 - 20 knots) to the high range (>20 knots), Vongfong should weaken and be a Category 2 or low-end Category 3 typhoon at that time. JMA is forecasting 500 - 700 mm (20 - 28 inches) of rain for Okinawa and nearby islands, and forecasts top sustained winds of 100 mph with gusts to 145 mph for the Okinawa region. Wave heights are forecast at 13 m (over 40 ft) for Okinawa and the Amami Islands to the north.

Rapid weakening should ensue as Vongfong approaches the main Japanese island of Kyushu this weekend, with Category 1 strength likely at landfall. In their 00Z Friday runs, the European and GFS models predicted landfall would occur on Kyushu between 8 pm - 11 pm U.S. EDT time Sunday evening (00 - 03 UTC Monday.) Heavy rains from Typhoon Vongfong are expected to fall on soils already saturated by Typhoon Phanfone's rains last week, which could lead to much more severe flooding than was observed for Phanfone. Vongfong will also be moving slower than Phanfone was, potentially leading to higher rainfall amounts.

Storm Chaser James Reynolds is on Okinawa, and is posting updates and images to his Twitter feed.
Latest Japanese radar shows heavy rain bands of Vongfong affecting Okinawa.


Figure 4. Tropical Cyclone Hudhud as seen by Astonaut Reid Wiseman from the International Space Station at 9:30 am EDT October 10, 2014. At the time, Hudhud was an intensifying Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. Image credit: Reid Wiseman.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Hudhud a threat to India
Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal is steadily intensifying as it heads west-northwest towards India, with sustained winds estimated at 85 mph at 8 am EDT Friday. The storm is under moderately high wind shear of 20 knots, and is over warm waters of 30°C (86°F)--conditions which favor continued modest intensification. Satellite loops show a well-organized system with plenty of low-level spiral bands and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. On Friday morning (U.S. EDT time), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was forecasting that Hudhud would have sustained winds of 130 - 140 kph (81 - 87 mph) at landfall, making it a strong Category 1 storm. JTWC was forecasting a stronger storm--Category 3 with 115 mph winds. IMD predicted a storm surge of 1 - 2 meters (3.3 - 6.6 feet) would occur near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. With warmer sea surface temperatures ahead of the storm and wind shear expected to be in the 15 - 20 knot range, intensification into at least a Category 2 cyclone appears likely before Hudhud hits the coast of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur on Sunday, October 12, near 06 UTC. Odisha was struck in 2013 by Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Phailin, which killed 45 people and did $700 million in damage. This death toll was extremely low, considering this is a region where 10,000 people died in a similar-strength cyclone in 1999. IMD provided excellent early warning information for Phailin.

Latest Hudhud warnings for India from the India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Latest Hudhud advisory from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
India radar from Machilipatnam.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has his take on the tropics in a Friday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments




invest 90L WILL going out to sea and not hit the east coast!


no one's here.. but Hudhud is looking good (or bad) depending on your perspective. but the Indian government was well prepared for Phailin, so I think they'll make it through this.
Convection increasing maybe code orange this time.
good morning cmc develops 90 now near the bvi's before heading it out to sea
Good morning.

From the San Juan NWS:

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HRS. IN GENERAL...THEY
SHOW AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT WITH A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ONLY A FEW GFES MEMBERS SHOW A
CLOSED SFC LOW BUT THE MAJORITY STILL SHOW AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND THE ONES THAT SHOW A CLOSED
SFC LOW INDICATE A TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS MEAN...THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WOULD FALL OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS (ZONE AMZ710) MON NIGHT
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATING THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING OVER PR
MON AND MON NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TUE WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP A
"TAIL" OVR PR AS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUE. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
FOR ANY DECISIONS THAT NEED TO BE MADE.
Why the HWRF is still so aggressive?

Quoting 507. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

From the San Juan NWS:

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HRS. IN GENERAL...THEY
SHOW AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT BUT WITH A
CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ONLY A FEW GFES MEMBERS SHOW A
CLOSED SFC LOW BUT THE MAJORITY STILL SHOW AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND THE ONES THAT SHOW A CLOSED
SFC LOW INDICATE A TRACK JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS MEAN...THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WOULD FALL OVER THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS (ZONE AMZ710) MON NIGHT
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATING THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING OVER PR
MON AND MON NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TUE WITH A DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO NOT LIKELY TO DEVELOP A
"TAIL" OVR PR AS STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TUE. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR THE MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND
FOR ANY DECISIONS THAT NEED TO BE MADE
.


I still have hopes that it will become a TS before reaching us


Oh please do something, quick!
Very clam!

90L...

Subtropical Storm FAY
5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 11
Location: 26.7°N 64.7°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph



maybe invest 91L SOON
The ECMWF and GFS have both backed way off on 90L. That really shouldn't be a surprise. I never bought that ECMWF solution for a second. An operational model showing a major hurricane with over half its ensembles not showing anything from the same feature is a huge red flag. Some gradual development over the next several days is possible, but this won't be any big major hurricane. Proof that even the ECMWF, while it is our best model, is not infallible.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized but limited cloudiness and showers, associated with an
elongated trough of low pressure, extend from near the coast of
Nicaragua to a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. While development of this system is not likely during
the next couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to
become conducive for some gradual development of this disturbance by
the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Cloudiness and thunderstorms located about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands are associated with a surface
trough. Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development
of this system during the next several days while it moves westward
or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 516. MAweatherboy1:

The ECMWF and GFS have both backed way off on 90L. That really shouldn't be a surprise. I never bought that ECMWF solution for a second. An operational model showing a major hurricane with over half its ensembles not showing anything from the same feature is a huge red flag. Some gradual development over the next several days is possible, but this won't be any big major hurricane. Proof that even the ECMWF, while it is our best model, is not infallible.
no major hurricane because of the high wind shear
Tropical Storm FAY
8:00 AM AST Sat Oct 11 2014
Location: 27.1°N 65.2°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

FAY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
Vongfong is about to make its closest pass to Okinawa; looks like what's left of the eye will go right over the eastern part of the island; winds have been gusting over hurricane force and the pressure is down to about 963mb on the island.

In other news, Fay transitioned into a Tropical Storm.

...FAY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
8:00 AM AST Sat Oct 11
Location: 27.1°N 65.2°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

Appanrently we got a tropical storm now.



tropical storm fay
Fay has now transitioned into a tropical storm. Subtropical Storm Fay formed Friday 525 miles south of Bermuda and began to acquire tropical characteristics.

As of 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Fay is packing 60 mph winds and is moving northward at around 12 mph. It is expected to turn northeastward by Sunday.

The expected track would have it pass to the east of Bermuda, where a tropical storm warning has been issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. Tropical Storm Fay will bring rainfall amounts of two to four inches and tropical storm force winds to Bermuda this weekend

watch out Bermuda!!!
Could up it be possible for Fay to become a hurricane. Give me a percentage. I think 30 %.
Shear seems to relaxing some where 90L is.
I think the biggest global weather story this morning though is Cyclone Hudhud, which has rapidly intensified overnight. Dr. Maue was sounding very concerned on Twitter several hours ago as the eye was only starting to clear. Well, now it is clear (although it doesn't show up great on the grainy satellite imagery here). It's a disaster now. 30C SSTs, 18 hours from landfall. Likely already a Cat 4, may reach Cat 5.




CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 935.3mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.7 6.7
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think the biggest global weather story this morning though is Cyclone Hudhud, which has rapidly intensified overnight. Dr. Maue was sounding very concerned on Twitter several hours ago as the eye was only starting to clear. Well, now it is clear (although it doesn't show up great on the grainy satellite imagery here). It's a disaster now. 30C SSTs, 18 hours from landfall. Likely already a Cat 4, may reach Cat 5.




CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 935.3mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.7 6.7
The name HudHud will get retired.
Curious to see if this now does not go OTS.

Quoting 516. MAweatherboy1:

The ECMWF and GFS have both backed way off on 90L. That really shouldn't be a surprise. I never bought that ECMWF solution for a second. An operational model showing a major hurricane with over half its ensembles not showing anything from the same feature is a huge red flag. Some gradual development over the next several days is possible, but this won't be any big major hurricane. Proof that even the ECMWF, while it is our best model, is not infallible.
90L doesn't look as good as I expected it to look today. But NHC has the odds up to 60% over the next 5 days for development.

Euro and GFS aren't impressed either. GFS waits until 90L has turned and is headed OTS before development.
The Euro, which previously developed a strong system in the Bahamas, has back off and keeps the system weak.

Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Curious to see if this now does not go OTS.

Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Curious to see if this now does not go OTS.



We have nothing to worry about down here in Florida. A strong front is going to clear the state mid week and high pressure will build into the area.
The only chance a system would have is if it raced towards Florida and got here before the front, but that's not going to happen.

Back to looking down in the Caribbean. That really is our best chance of seeing anything affecting the U.S.



8:30 AM EDT on October 11, 2014 Fay has now transitioned into a tropical storm winds 60 mph!!
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud

Tropical Cyclone Hudhud
Last Updated Oct 11, 2014 06 GMT
Location 16.0N 85.2E Movement W
Wind 120 MPH

991mb found by the HH!! Maybe 65-70 next advisory.
Invest 91L and 91E are up.

91L INVEST 141011 1200 14.0N 35.4W ATL 25 NA<
91E INVEST 141011 1200 10.0N 134.0W EPAC 20 NA
/strong>
INVEST 91L is here!! need to be watch to
warning!!! tropical storm fay will be a hurricane soon!!
T. S. Fay spinning near Bermuda! 2 other area of interests in the ATL to watch.

If one of the AOI gets a name, we will be up to 7 named storms for 2014.

The 2nd half of October could spin up yet another Tropical Cyclone after all of this.

AND, we still have November to go ....

Late-season storms are always interesting!
Wow Atlantic I'm impressed.
Tropical Storm Fay
90L
And 91L.
You sure woke up, I'm proud of you. :)
Quoting 530. Andrebrooks:

The name HudHud will get retired.

They don't retire names in the indian ocean.



here is invest 91E


INVEST 90L go out to sea !!!! tropical storm fay going out to sea and invest 91L going out to sea
Hudhud... A few hours old but the clearest visible image I found.
Hudhud is a very serious problem for India right now.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Looks like four days of rain for Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea or flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
Maybe 90L will RI just east of us :-)

(Dreamy)
Quoting 485. HurriHistory:

90L does not look very healthy tonight. I think the NHC jumped the gun with the red crayon this evening. They may have to get out the yellow crayon for the 2AM outlook, if there's even anything there at all to circle.


I still wonder what would happen if some of the people on this blog got "Harold's purple crayon"
<


Tropical



Tropical Cyclone Hudhud at 9:35 AM EDT on October 11, 2014 on it way to be a cat 4 winds 125 mph right now more like 140 mph soon or higher
553. afj3
Question for the group: I have done the research and it seems few storms, if any, develop in the Atlantic in October and hit Florida. Does this one stand a chance? Doesn't seem likely....
90L slowly organizing on VIS LOOP
Well it already looks like my (not much trumpeted} hunch or forecast that the fall would be like 1976 with a big trough locked into the Eastern Conus from September until doomsday, ...
has already grossly busted.

We're almost to mid October and September and October so far have been.. uuhh.. NORMAL AND TYPICAL in the DC metro area at least


BUSTED!! FAIL!! :-)
GWV

Quoting afj3:
Question for the group: I have done the research and it seems few storms, if any, develop in the Atlantic in October and hit Florida. Does this one stand a chance? Doesn't seem likely....


No, it doesn't stand a chance. Front is pushing through Florida mid week and that will block anything from moving west.

Models have been shifting more and more to the east away from Florida with each run.



here the frist look at invest 91L!!
559. afj3
Quoting 557. Sfloridacat5:



No, it doesn't stand a chance. Front is pushing through Florida mid week and that will block anything from moving west.

Models have been shifting more and more to the east away from Florida with each run.
Quoting 557. Sfloridacat5:



No, it doesn't stand a chance. Front is pushing through Florida mid week and that will block anything from moving west.

Models have been shifting more and more to the east away from Florida with each run.


Figured so much. And thanks!
Quoting 548. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Looks like four days of rain for Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea or flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
I,ll have the cheese omelet, shrimp grits,fruit, and coffee.
This front pushing off the Eastcoast (day 5) will protect the eastcoast from 90L.

Quoting 561. Sfloridacat5:

This front pushing off the Eastcoast (day 5) will protect the eastcoast from 90L.


i tell everyone on here invest 90L AND invest 91L BOTH going out to sea
It's as I feared a few days ago, Hudhud strengthening more than the models predicting:



It looks quite possible that it could make landfall as a category 5 with SSTs beneath 30-31C with some 32C water ahead of it and wind shear of 5kts overhead. This could be very dangerous, especially considering the IMD are forecasting it to make landfall with 90-95kt winds, when in reality it could hit with 130-140kt winds and gusts a bit higher. The good news is that over 150,000 people have been evacuated so far and fingers crossed the impact will be similar to, or less than when Phailin made landfall as a category 4 last year.
This could be very dangerous, especially considering how the IMD are forecasting it to make landfall with 70-75kt winds, when in reality it could hit with 130-140kt winds and gusts a bit higher.


IMD is forecasting 90-95 knots now (as of 9:00 AM UTC) bulletin
Recon going to investigate 90L on Sunday afternoon (If Necessary)

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 11 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-133

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 12/1730Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 12/1615Z
D. 16.8N 59.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 13/1730Z
NEAR 17.3N 63.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Any of You guys think this will be upgraded to a moderate risk?
Quoting 565. Tropicsweatherpr:

Recon going to investigate 90L on Sunday afternoon (If Necessary)

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 11 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-133

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74
A. 12/1730Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 12/1615Z
D. 16.8N 59.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 13/1730Z
NEAR 17.3N 63.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



Lol maybe they will find a 55 Kts TS!! xD
Fay is up to 65mph now. :)
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FAY AL072014 10/11/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 54 55 53 52 51 50 50 49 48 46
V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 54 55 53 52 51 50 50 49 48 46
V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 58 57 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 32 32 36 33 28 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 171 172 181 200 208 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.2 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 155 147 141 136 131 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 133 127 124 119 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 54 55 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 55 38 18 24 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 51 66 46 36 71 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 -14 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 956 1107 1165 1205 1167 1089 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.7 30.2 31.8 33.3 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 65.3 65.2 65.1 63.7 62.3 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 20 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 22 27 20 7 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 FAY 10/11/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 FAY 10/11/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 FAY 10/11/2014 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


IMD is forecasting 90-95 knots now (as of 9:00 AM UTC) bulletin


Shocker, IMD way underestimating the intensity of a rapidly intensifying cyclone. I'm glad to hear that people are being evacuated, however.



90L seems to be intensifying to at least Tropical Depression strength at the moment...the next few hours will be an interesting period of observation. Conditions should be more favourable and conducive to further strengthening...
Recon may have to be initiated earlier too.

God Bless us All!
Quoting NatureIsle:
90L seems to be intensifying to at least Tropical Depression strength at the moment...the next few hours will be an interesting period of observation. Conditions should be more favourable and conducive to further strengthening...
Recon may have to be initiated earlier too.

God Bless us All!
I think code orange next TWO and I mean this time.
91L maybe 20/30 or 30/30.
After last night's disappointment, excitement is increasing again with 90L xD




Shocker, IMD way underestimating the intensity of a rapidly intensifying cyclone. I'm glad to hear that people are being evacuated, however.


I went to bed and the Dvorak was T5.0.. I was expected 90 knots for that advisory and they give the cyclone 80 knots.

it's like a normal 10 minute sustained wind average reading for T5.0
.
vis.90..feeble
Typhoon Vongfong

Typhoon Vongfong
Last Updated Oct 11, 2014 12 GMT
Location 26.1N 128.3E Movement NNW
Wind 85 MPH

great news here winds going down fast!
i will gave tropical storm fay 100% of being a hurricane i see it coming now!!
Quoting hurricanes2018:
i will gave tropical storm fay 100% of being a hurricane i see it coming now!!

I give it 90%!! And the chances of a moderate risk in my area is 85%, so that brings a "moderate risk" of a dangerous day.
Morning everyone. Greetings from Honduras, where conditions are forecast to be dificult on monday.
Quoting 566. 62901IL:


Any of You guys think this will be upgraded to a moderate risk?



A prime example albeit a tad early, of the Fall Nado threat in the South.


NWS Slidell, New Orleans disco

Long term...cyclogenisis begins in ernest around noon Sunday
around the Dakotas west into Wyoming. A deeper for rigorous short
wave trough digs south with a low pressure center developing Monday
morning over Kansas. This strong upper level short wave and
associated cold front will bring higher chances for rain Monday
afternoon including thunderstorms. Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the area with
a slight risk of severe weather ahead and along the cold front.
Models are in good agreement with some minor differences in timing
and strength in the European model (ecmwf) and GFS models. Expect best chance for
severe weather to be to the north... however with dew points in
the 70s... surface positive cape around 1200 to 1600 j/kg... and right
rear exit region of a 100kt jet to the north... could spell some
potential wind damage and isolated tornadoes in the pre-frontal
squall line. Heavy rain is possible with this next system as it
moves into our area Monday afternoon and exits Monday evening. The
air mass will dry out and temperatures will be cooler behind the
front for the remainder of the week.



&&

Quoting 516. MAweatherboy1:

The ECMWF and GFS have both backed way off on 90L. That really shouldn't be a surprise. I never bought that ECMWF solution for a second. An operational model showing a major hurricane with over half its ensembles not showing anything from the same feature is a huge red flag. Some gradual development over the next several days is possible, but this won't be any big major hurricane. Proof that even the ECMWF, while it is our best model, is not infallible.

Not surprising. This new, weaker resolution to 90L is much more reasonable, with it not really developing until it stalls out north of Hispanoila. It is then taken out to sea, and though it appears that it may intensify as it heads out, I don't anticipate it getting any stronger than a minimal hurricane.
As for newly designated Invest 91L, the system remains in a hostile environment, with development odds in the low range. Though conditions are conducive, I wouldn't rule out a quick spin up of 91L out in the open Atlantic, similar to 2012' TS Oscar.
This streaming cam has sounded like this all........ day.

Gabusoka, Nago, Okinawa, Japan
Quoting 555. georgevandenberghe:

Well it already looks like my (not much trumpeted} hunch or forecast that the fall would be like 1976 with a big trough locked into the Eastern Conus from September until doomsday, ...
has already grossly busted.

We're almost to mid October and September and October so far have been.. uuhh.. NORMAL AND TYPICAL in the DC metro area at least


BUSTED!! FAIL!! :-)
GWV


Last fall was "normal" but our winter was still winter.

Typhoon Vongfong

Typhoon Vongfong
Last Updated Oct 11, 2014 12 GMT
Location 26.1N 128.3E Movement NNW
Wind 85 MPH

great news here winds going down fast!


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #69A
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON VONGFONG (1419)
22:00 PM JST October 11 2014
===================================
60 KM East of Naha [Okinawa Prefecture]

At 13:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vongfong (935 hPa) located at 26.2N 128.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
375 NM from the center in north quadrant
325 NM from the center in south quadrant

JMA still has the cyclone stronger than the JTWC. =P
Quoting 583. AussieStorm:

This streaming cam has sounded like this all........ day.

Gabusoka, Nago, Okinawa, Japan


Nice link, thanx aussie, one having been there, can almost taste the salt.
Quoting 573. CaribBoy:

After last night's disappointment, excitement is increasing again with 90L xD



It's a sheared mess of convection with some broad spin associated with it. I wouldn't call it much more than that at the current time. Development will only be slow to occur and I dont anticipate much from 90L until it is near or has already traversed Puerto Rico.
Quoting Patrap:



A prime example albeit a tad early, of the Fall Nado threat in the South.


NWS Slidell, New Orleans disco

Long term...cyclogenisis begins in ernest around noon Sunday
around the Dakotas west into Wyoming. A deeper for rigorous short
wave trough digs south with a low pressure center developing Monday
morning over Kansas. This strong upper level short wave and
associated cold front will bring higher chances for rain Monday
afternoon including thunderstorms. Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the area with
a slight risk of severe weather ahead and along the cold front.
Models are in good agreement with some minor differences in timing
and strength in the European model (ecmwf) and GFS models. Expect best chance for
severe weather to be to the north... however with dew points in
the 70s... surface positive cape around 1200 to 1600 j/kg... and right
rear exit region of a 100kt jet to the north... could spell some
potential wind damage and isolated tornadoes in the pre-frontal
squall line. Heavy rain is possible with this next system as it
moves into our area Monday afternoon and exits Monday evening. The
air mass will dry out and temperatures will be cooler behind the
front for the remainder of the week.



&&



Quoting 554. CaribBoy:

90L slowly organizing on VIS LOOP
Not really.
Quoting Patrap:


Nice link, thanx aussie, one having been there, can almost taste the salt.


If you turned your speaker volume to max,,, it would be about 10% of what it is really like.

James Reynolds is at Ginoza while the streaming cam is near the drop pin.

Gro... do you remember this

168 years ago today, The Great Havana Hurricane passed northward between Key West and Marquesas Keys
hurricane fay coming soon!!
i say it 10,000 time tropical storm will be a hurricane soon!!
Quoting 590. AussieStorm:



James Reynolds is at Ginoza while the streaming cam is near the drop pin.




I was at Kin, "USMC Camp Hansen" Sept 82-83.

Had a few Typhoons pass close that year.

Father fought there in 45', as a USMC 105 Gunner, F/O

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 65.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. FAY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.27 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
well Canadian model says nothing hitting the states thru Oct 21st.............................
Quoting 597. hydrus:




HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-1215 00-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
952 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. FOG MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PATCHY FOG MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

$$
Fay wants to be a hurricane badly.If Fay becomes a hurricane Dolly will be the only storm not to become one.


Tropical Storm FAY Max sustained: 70 mph 11:00 AM EDT on October 11, 2014 wow!!
603. SLU
Nothing much there. Although the models have been super aggressive with 90L, remember this is a new era in the Atlantic where invests have a hard time pulling together. I suspect a similar pattern to the formation of Cristobal may occur with little to no significant development until it reaches north of DR by Tuesday. The Leewards and PR can expect a rainy day on Monday but not a full-fledged tropical cyclone.

i have a new blog on tropical storm fay!
Fay is the we can do it type girl! She be going till the very end!
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud is strengthening as it churns over the Bay of Bengal in the northern Indian Ocean basin and millions of people in India are in its path.

As of 11 a.m. EDT Saturday, Hudhud was located about 150 miles southeast of Visakhapatnam, India and exhibited maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, making it the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.






Hudhud is now moving west-northwest and additional strengthening is expected. Hudhud is in a favorable environment for strengthening and the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts it to become the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane just before it makes landfall along the east-central coast of India in eastern Andhra Pradesh or Odisha (Orissa) states midday Sunday, local time. (Eastern India is 9.5 hours ahead of U.S. Eastern Daylight Time).
90L doesn't look too good this morning. I think Fay is interfering with its development. It looks like the northern Antilles, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should be concerned with 90L and 91L. It does appear at this time that either will be a threat to the US coastline. 91L could be a little stronger than the other.



90L will never get west of 75, and that's if there's even anything left of it.
Quoting 607. Grothar:

90L doesn't look too good this morning. I think Fay is interfering with its development. It looks like the northern Antilles, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should be concerned with 90L and 91L. It does appear at this time that either will be a threat to the US coastline. 91L could be a little stronger than the other.




Gonzalo is about to put on his dancing and dance out right behind Fay.
Not bad. There's a chance Fay may briefly become a hurricane if it continues to retain this organization.

Quoting 599. Patrap:




That was good..
This is the week of the Great Hurricane of 1780.
Cape Verde wave looks nice.
Quoting 553. afj3:

Question for the group: I have done the research and it seems few storms, if any, develop in the Atlantic in October and hit Florida. Does this one stand a chance? Doesn't seem likely....
Any Tropical Cyclone that develops in that area of the Atlantic this time of year will almost always turn North and then Northeast and go out to sea never even coming close to the East coast of Florida. 90L should be no exception.
Quoting Grothar:
This is the week of the Great Hurricane of 1780.


That was an absolutely nasty hurricane. It was probably up there with the likes of Wilma and some of the more intense Super Typhoons in the Pacific if I had to guess. It left Barbados in absolute ruin.
Is anyone else getting random commercials with sound to play?

Okay it appears I'm not the only one with this problem then.I thought my pop up blocker was off.Thanks Guys.
Andhra Pradesh close to where HudHud is headed, is home to a number of beautiful Hindu temples. One, I believe, is one of the most popular in the world. The people in that area are particularly friendly. One of my doctors is from there. It is one of only a few places in India to which we traveled. I hope they fare well.
Quoting 619. washingtonian115:

Is anyone else getting random commercials with sound to play?
Yep.
90L is trying...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is anyone else getting random commercials with sound to play?

Okay it appears I'm not the only one with this problem then.I thought my pop up blocker was off.Thanks Guys.


Not in Classic.
When I'm using the new blog (non-classic), I have all kinds of issues.

Classic reloads fast, looks better and is easier to read.
Vortex message shows that Fay is now a hurricane.
Well, is by Monday when it is forecast to put its act together, Lets wait, and see if NHC is correct
NAM has 90L just south of PR on Monday.
Quoting 627. Climate175:

NAM has 90L just south of PR on Monday.
strong cool front coming into florida tues-wens will push it away from the east coast hopefully
000
URNT12 KNHC 111402
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072014
A. 11/13:48:30Z
B. 27 deg 40 min N
065 deg 33 min W
C. 850 mb 1369 m
D. 68 kt
E. 295 deg 18 nm
F. 350 deg 65 kt
G. 298 deg 22 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 16 C / 1523 m
J. 18 C / 1516 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0207A FAY OB 13
MAX FL WIND 65 KT 298 / 22 NM 13:41:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 284 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
CTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 010/20 KT
;
This will be an intense system. The pressure gradient is impressive, the low is deep, the trof sharp and negative. There will be high winds before the pre frontal squall line. I believe there will be a lot of straight line damage. Some higher lapse rates, could have been a large tornado outbreak...Potent system, plain and simple..
find winds of 75 mph on tropical storm fay about 1/2 ago! hurricane come soon
Quoting 630. hydrus:

This will be an intense system. The pressure gradient is impressive, the low is deep, the trof sharp and negative. There will be high winds before the pre frontal squall line. I believe there will be a lot of straight line damage. Some higher lapse rates, could have been a large tornado outbreak...Potent system, plain and simple..

yes and this is supposed to stall out over central florida and sit there for a few days..we'll see
Latest GFS has it down to 998 MB, with a big 1026 high to the east..

Quoting Climate175:
NAM has 90L just south of PR on Monday.


And then it turns WNW/NW and crosses eastern Hispaniola up into the Atlantic.
Looks to be a Tropical Depression.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
000
URNT12 KNHC 111402
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072014
A. 11/13:48:30Z
B. 27 deg 40 min N
065 deg 33 min W
C. 850 mb 1369 m
D. 68 kt
E. 295 deg 18 nm
F. 350 deg 65 kt
G. 298 deg 22 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 16 C / 1523 m
J. 18 C / 1516 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0207A FAY OB 13
MAX FL WIND 65 KT 298 / 22 NM 13:41:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 284 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
CTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 010/20 KT
;


Fay possibly has become a hurricane, we'll see what the NHC says at 2pm.
Quoting 632. hurricanes2018:

find winds of 75 mph on tropical storm fay about 1/2 ago! hurricane come soon
IF it does..it will only be for a short while..................
Now that it is almost mid-October, any storm that forms in the Atlantic will go out to sea with the changing fall pattern, usually the places storms form that have better chance of impacting the US comes from the Gulf or Caribbean. It looks like August took October's place these past few days.
Quoting 637. CybrTeddy:




Fay possibly has become a hurricane, we'll see what the NHC says at 2pm.


It looks to be a rain contaminated reading. Flight level winds of 48 kts with a rain rate of 48mm/hour:

134200 2749N 06551W 8415 01486 9996 172 172 003046 048 068 048 00

Plus recon's flight-level data suggests surface winds of about 55 kts maximum. I think the NHC will keep Fay at 65-70mph.

Edit: Nevermind it was a dropsonde, quite interesting!
Wow!.Fay becoming a hurricane when it wasn't forecast to go past 50mph is impressive.Bermuda has some of the best building codes in the world and i'm sure they're prepared.I'm sure this will be a piece of cake for them.
Quoting 584. washingtonian115:

Last fall was "normal" but our winter was still winter.


Yes but not like the fall and winter of 1976-77 where the unbreakable ridge in the west was accompanied by an unbreakable trough in the east. Winter was variable last year with substantial warm spells in between the arctic outbreaks and snowstorms. The variability caused a lot of hardiness problems with plants that normally survive here whereas in 1976-77 it was just brute force cold on and on and on (and with not much snow either because the trough axis was too far east)

To be fair, I was at VPI in Blacksburg VA, closer to the core of cold departures that winter and conditions were more intense (even worse) there. I did not observe DC conditions firsthand. But one remarkable feature that January of 1977 in DC metro was that there was NO rain the entire month, only snow, ice pellets and freezing rain. Most of the area also failed to reach 50F the entire month which is very rare for January.
Fast trades winds to the north and very slow trades to the south.
Quoting 642. washingtonian115:

Wow!.Fay becoming a hurricane when it wasn't forecast to go past 50mph is impressive.Bermuda has some of the best building codes in the world and i'm sure they're prepared.I'm sure this will be a piece of cake for them.
If Fay becomes a hurricane it will be a re- Shary like I said yesterday night at the blog.
Caribbean low has drifted a little to the NW and its now sitting on the Guatemala/Honduras boarder.

The front dropping down this week could help pull it further to the north.

If it gets into the western Caribbean or BOC it could have a chance of development.

Odds are still very low (5-10% maybe) of this happening.
They must be getting a lot of rain down there in Central America with the low parked over the area for over a week now.
After Fay and future Gonzalo are gone, Lord knows where are attention will be drawn next.
Quoting 646. Gearsts:

Fast trades winds to the north and very slow trades to the south.



And is moving west not WNW for now.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #34
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
17:30 PM IST October 11 2014
===============================
Cyclone Warning for northern Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts (Red Message)

At 12:00 PM UTC, According to latest observations, the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Hudhud over west central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards during past six hours and lays centered near 16.2N 84.8E ,about 230 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 340 km south southeast of Gopalpur.

The system would move northwestwards and cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast close to Visakhapatnam around noon, Sunday.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T5.0. Eye is clearly seen in imagery. Associated intense to very intense convective clouds over area between 11.0N to 20.0N and west of 88.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature -93C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 960 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 16.9N 83.8E - 90 to 95 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 18.2N 82.8E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Storm surge warning
=====================
Storm surge of about 1-2 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Visakhapatnam, Vijayanagaram and Srikakulam districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.

Additional Information
===================
According to latest position from dwr Visakhapatnam (1300 UTC) there is a closed eye with center near 16.2N 84.8E with diameter 36 kilometers . Maximum reflectivity is 50.0 dbz. Maximum radial velocity is 92 knots at a height of about 3.8 km A.S.L

The upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable to maintain its intensity of very severe cyclonic storm. The wind shear continues to stay moderate. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 21.0N in association with anti-cyclonic circulation over head Bay of Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh. The system is expected to maintain northwestward movement in association with the sub-tropical ridge. The current forecast is based on the consensus track forecast guidance of the numerical weather prediction models.
Fay looking fat.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #70
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON VONGFONG (1419)
0:00 AM JST October 12 2014
===================================
30 KM Southwest of Nago [Okinawa Prefecture]

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vongfong (950 hPa) located at 26.4N 127.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
375 NM from the center in north quadrant
325 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 29.8N 127.8E - 80 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) west of Yakushima [Kagoshima Prefecture]
Looks like another strong EPAC storm in the making

Quoting 653. Grothar:

Fay looking fat.


She wants to be a big girl.
Quoting 648. Sfloridacat5:

Caribbean low has drifted a little to the NW and its now sitting on the Guatemala/Honduras boarder.

The front dropping down this week could help pull it further to the north.

If it gets into the western Caribbean or BOC it could have a chance of development.

Odds are still very low (5-10% maybe) of this happening.
They must be getting a lot of rain down there in Central America with the low parked over the area for over a week now.


Eastearn Honduras and Nicaragua have received a lot of rain. I live in the western part of Honduras and we had a rainy wednesday but no much more besides that day.


getting buzy here
Quoting 655. Grothar:

Looks like another strong EPAC storm in the making




Poor Mexico :(
The latest GFS has Bermuda gettin hit in a week..

Quoting 653. Grothar:

Fay looking fat.



Does this storm make my butt look fat?
I want my sw carribean storm
NWS Columbia ‏@NWSColumbia 33m33 minutes ago
Tropical Storm #Fay will have no impact on the Midlands/CSRA but a trailing wave may develop next week. http://ow.ly/i/7bMSq
Quoting LargoFl:
strong cool front coming into florida tues-wens will push it away from the east coast hopefully
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


And then it turns WNW/NW and crosses eastern Hispaniola up into the Atlantic.
Looks to be a Tropical Depression.
Local weather in PR, are saying that probably the Island will be affected by a TD Monday night....
Brief update from the San Juan NWS.

TROPICAL UPDATE...DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IT.
Quoting 666. Tropicsweatherpr:

Brief update from the San Juan NWS.

TROPICAL UPDATE...DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IT.
And looks like is going to move more west as a weaker system.
GFS at 192 hours watch carribean as Levi said.
Quoting 653. Grothar:

Fay looking fat.



All about the bass no treble.
Good afternoon,

I've posted a new video forecast discussion for those interested:

Watching Threats to Bermuda, Antilles, and Hawaii
Washi check your WU mail.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
12z UKMET..



Off Topic But..............................ORLANDO --

Can the deadly Ebola virus disease infect animals? And can those animals spread it to humans? A dog whose owner was infected with the virus was euthanized in Spain last week because of that possibility.

Experts said they don't have all of the answers yet, but some animals can get the virus. It's more complicated than that, though, because animals don't show the symptoms.

So, can the virus then be spread to humans? Maybe.

Ebola has been detected in monkeys, bats, pigs, horses and dogs. But there is a big difference between carrying the virus and transmitting it.

"While, yes, they can contract the virus — whether they carry the virus and can spread it to animals or other people is still unclear," said Dr. Kristen Olsen, an internal medicine specialist at Affiliated Veterinary Specialists.

But knowing if an animal has the Ebola virus is even harder to tell.

"They never would show an outward sign that they have the infection," Olsen said.

In primates and humans, the symptoms can't be ignored.

"Consistently, it's going to be fever, diarrhea, vomiting and, in more severe cases, abnormal bleeding," said Dr. Timothy Hendrix, of CentraCare.

But it could take as many as 21 days before those symptoms take over. So in that incubation period, any physical contact could spread the virus. And that is what is causing concern about potentially infected animals, like dogs.

"So theoretically, if they ever prove that the virus is carried in saliva of dogs, then yes, that may be some type of possibility," Olsen said.

Medical experts said there are very few diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans. It will take more time to study the virus to get those answers, experts said.


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said there have been no reports of pet dogs or cats becoming sick with Ebola or passing the disease on to other animals or people in the U.S. They said they are working with the American Veterinary Medical Association to develop a plan for the pet population in the United States.
679. vis0

Quoting 655. Grothar:

Looks like another strong EPAC storm in the making


1st don't bother grothar he's an innocent bystander i very much respect , but since he posts the most accurate educated guesstimates i am forced to add my 22cents to his timely posts. i do post on the blog that is no longer the freshest Masters' blog as to not interfere w/ the boards flow & i do post relevant "stuff" besides what i think is relevant, notice post SATS of fong before Masters or SATS of hudhud before Masters not 'cause i'm better ARE YOU NUTS but 'cause i observe all even the quiet areas as a member here reminds us to do, IF we really want to learn. Not to mention Masters, Grothar have responsibilities to millions that read their posts so they have to proof read there work i SPLAT its on.
(Grothar..millions?, i'm counting from the beginning of time as to Grother, or just after he wound up natures watch, :-P. ) Its easy to tell what fruit a good tree will bear, can you tell what a bad seed will bear?-  (part of a 5th grade poem i wrote titled:: Air asking when it will become a breeze)

This (low) has odds of really intensifying ("no kidding", nature remarks ...as to 2014 ePACs tendency to be severe) BUT the problem is, will it hit land? IF it develops & is still close to WMex by next wed/thurs watch out. Why? its my nutty reasoning as the ml-d is kicking in ~Mon thru wed (13th-15th) at 66% (its at 33 rising now due to the 2WkA, try to read my blog its/my own  cmmnts for CLUEs) YET MJO is still in charge. By the 22nd of Oct 2014 MJO begins to lose battle to ml-d (ml-d is a device i state influences weather & since its ON continuously it trumps other most natural oscillations be it MJO, El N's  etc. 'cause?, they are oscillations thus by nature (pun intended) not ON continuously). BTW, ml-d also has me ignored by many members and caused me to not use wxu mail got too many nastiness, so i ignore wxumail.) i guess that's the beauty of developing cutting edge technology IF the ml-d IS FOR REAL, so kids learn from history if you take chances you'll be ignored ie known nuts as Tesla, Edison, Galileo, Copernicus etc, not comparing myself just that those were the nuts of THERE time.


This from the nut that Sept 30ish 2014 stated watch out for what i (the nut) calls the "2 week anomaly" (2WkA)as i was noticing that MJO was to build AFTEr the 2WkA starts and in my 35 yrs of my own research its a 84% chance for at least 2 and as much as 6 TsGen (Avgd. 2.8) for the 14-18 days when we see 2WkA & then MJO begins no more than 3 days later, same nut that previous years shows the correlation between the 2WkA , ml-d and how LOWs are "behaiving" in the ATL . BTW this "behavior" is multiplied by twofild by the ml-d while its ON continuously, in other words if it is the NORM (130 yr records) that 2.4 yrs of every 11 (2 of 10) we see anemic TS till WkA & MJO join forces in that order then the ml-d "push-pulls" things that influence weather (dryness, wetness, up-down lift, SAL,fonts etc) 2fold or ~5 of every 11 yrs. This means i've been lucky in showing Wxu members the influence of the ml-d 'cause we've had ~3 or 4 anemic ATL TS seasons which means of the next 7 or 6 yrs only 1 or 2 will be anemic as far as TS gen, but i digress or  was it gas, can't tell my nose is still stuffed,peace
ok guys..what's changed here.............................................. .........
gee is it only the GFS showing this??............................................ .................
so GFS says this crosses south florida into the atlantic..GRO..Hydrus...better watch this one.....
too far out in time to be believed..but..im watching for it ok.................................
Quoting 653. Grothar:

Fay looking fat.




One letter change is all she needs. I know, someone already said this, but she's all about that bass, bout that bass, no treble.
Quoting 678. LargoFl:

Off Topic But..............................ORLANDO --

Can the deadly Ebola virus disease infect animals? And can those animals spread it to humans? A dog whose owner was infected with the virus was euthanized in Spain last week because of that possibility.

Experts said they don't have all of the answers yet, but some animals can get the virus. It's more complicated than that, though, because animals don't show the symptoms.

So, can the virus then be spread to humans? Maybe.

Ebola has been detected in monkeys, bats, pigs, horses and dogs. But there is a big difference between carrying the virus and transmitting it.

"While, yes, they can contract the virus — whether they carry the virus and can spread it to animals or other people is still unclear," said Dr. Kristen Olsen, an internal medicine specialist at Affiliated Veterinary Specialists.

But knowing if an animal has the Ebola virus is even harder to tell.

"They never would show an outward sign that they have the infection," Olsen said.

In primates and humans, the symptoms can't be ignored.

"Consistently, it's going to be fever, diarrhea, vomiting and, in more severe cases, abnormal bleeding," said Dr. Timothy Hendrix, of CentraCare.

But it could take as many as 21 days before those symptoms take over. So in that incubation period, any physical contact could spread the virus. And that is what is causing concern about potentially infected animals, like dogs.

"So theoretically, if they ever prove that the virus is carried in saliva of dogs, then yes, that may be some type of possibility," Olsen said.

Medical experts said there are very few diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans. It will take more time to study the virus to get those answers, experts said.


The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said there have been no reports of pet dogs or cats becoming sick with Ebola or passing the disease on to other animals or people in the U.S. They said they are working with the American Veterinary Medical Association to develop a plan for the pet population in the United States.





I had to do it, I had to.