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Super Typhoon Vongfong a Threat to Japan; Tropical Cyclone Hudhud Menaces India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on October 08, 2014

Earth's most powerful tropical cyclone since 2013's devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan, Super Typhoon Vongfong, peaked in intensity Tuesday with top sustained winds of 180 mph, and has weakened slightly to peak winds of 165 mph as of 12 UTC Wednesday (8 am EDT), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC.) Vonfong completed a very impressive bout of rapid intensification that took it from a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds at 18 UTC Monday to Category 5 strength with 180 mph winds at 18 UTC Tuesday. These are the highest winds of any tropical cyclone JTWC has rated since Super Typhoon Haiyan's 195 mph winds of November 7, 2013 (JTWC's post-season analysis showed Haiyan weakened slightly to 190 mph winds at landfall in the Philippines.) The Japan Meteorological Agency has held Vonfong's central pressure at 900 mb between 18 UTC Tuesday and 12 UTC Wednesday--the lowest pressure of any typhoon they have rated since Super Typhoon Haiyan's 895 mb pressure of November 7, 2013.


Figure 1. Infrared VIIRS image of Super Typhoon Vongfong as seen at 17:03 UTC (1:03 pm EDT) on October 7, 2014. At the time, Vongfong was a peak-intensity Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NASA and RAMMB/CIRA.


Figure 2. Infrared VIIRS images of some of the strongest Pacific tropical cyclones of the past year at their peak intensity. The colors tell us the temperature of the cloud tops. The colder the cloud tops, the higher they are, indicating stronger updrafts and thus a more vigorous tropical cyclone. The white colors are temperatures of -80°C (-112°F), and the pink colors (only seen in Haiyan) are still colder, about -85°C (-121°F). This is the temperature at the very top of the troposphere (base of the stratosphere), about 50,000 feet high. Haiyan (195 mph winds) stands out as being much more intense than the other super storms (Rammasun: 155 mph winds; Genevieve: 160 mph winds; Vongfong: 180 mph winds.) Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/NASA and RAMMB/CIRA (and thanks to TWC's Michael Lowry for putting this mosaic together.)

Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of 2014
Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of the year, and the second in the Western Pacific. The other Western Pacific Cat 5 was Super Typhoon Halong, which topped out at 160 mph winds on August 3, eventually making landfall in Japan on August 10 as a tropical storm. Another Western Pacific Super Typhoon, Rammasun, was only rated a Cat 4 when it hit China's Hainan Island on July 17, killing 195 people and causing over $7 billion in damage. However, a pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island. If this pressure is verified, it is likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season reanalysis. The Eastern Pacific has had two Cat 5s in 2014 that did not affect land: Marie (160 mph winds) and Genevieve (160 mph winds.) The South Indian Ocean has had one Cat 5 this year, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in March (160 mph winds.) Gillian did not affect any land areas. Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.

Vongfong a threat to Japan
Vongfong began a turn to the north on Wednesday morning, and is a threat to hit Japan on Sunday or Monday. Satellite loops show Vongfong is an extremely impressive storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, excellent upper-level outflow, and a large 25-mile diameter eye. With the typhoon over warm waters of 30°C (86°F) and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, continued existence as a Category 5 storm is possible. The 11 am EDT Wednesday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted that Vongfong would remain a Category 5 storm through 8 am Thursday. Cooler waters and higher wind shear will induce weakening by Friday as the typhoon approaches Japan. Vongfong will be recurving as it approaches Japan, and the models differ considerably on when and where this recurvature will take place, and thus when Vongfong will make landfall. In their 00Z Thursday runs, the European and GFS models both predicted landfall would occur on the main island of Kyushu, with the European model forecasting a landfall near 18 UTC Sunday, and the GFS model forecasting a landfall about twelve hours later, near 06 UTC Monday.


Figure 3. Rainfall from Typhoon Phanfone as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. The typhoon's heaviest rains stayed offshore, but some areas of 6+ inches (yellow colors) were observed west of Tokyo. The typhoon dumped 48 centimeters (19 inches) of rain in the mountainous region of Shizuoka Prefecture. At one point during the storm, rain fell in Shizuoka—the capital city of the prefecture—at a record-rate of 8.7 centimeters (3.4 inches) per hour. Heavy rains from Typhoon Vongfong are expected to fall on soils already saturated by Typhoon Phanfone's rains, which could lead to much more severe flooding than was observed for Phanfone. Image credit: NASA/TRMM


Figure 4. Typhoon Phanfone's heavy rains and resulting runoff led to sediment plumes in Japan's Suruga Bay, visible in the natural-color image (top) acquired October 6, 2014, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Such plumes were not apparent on September 29 (bottom image). Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Japan cleaning up from Typhoon Phanfone
Vongfong is following a track remarkably similar to Typhoon Phanfone, which made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds on Japan's main island of Honshu at 7:16 pm EDT Sunday, October 5, 2014 near the city of Hamamatsu in western Shizuoka Prefecture, about 125 miles west-southwest of Tokyo. A few hours later, the core of the typhoon passed over Tokyo, where sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 70 mph were recorded. Phanfone killed at least seven and left four missing, injuring at least 62 others. Heavy rains from Typhoon Vongfong are expected to fall on soils already saturated by Typhoon Phanfone's rains, which could lead to much more severe flooding than was observed for Phanfone. Vongfong will also be moving slower than Phanfone was, potentially leading to higher rainfall amounts.

RapidScat measures Tropical Storm Simon's winds
An ocean wind measurement instrument called ISS-RapidScat was launched on September 20, 2014 on a SpaceX Dragon cargo spacecraft, which docked with the International Space Station (ISS) a few days later. On September 30, RapidScat was plucked out of the Dragon and installed on the Space Station, with full activation occurring the next day. Remarkably, we already have the first test data from the instrument--a swath of ocean surface wind data taken in Tropical Storm Simon off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on October 4. The RapidScat data showed the size of Simon's wind field very well, and would have been of value for NHC to help define the radius of gale (34 kts) and storm-force (50 kts) winds surrounding the storm. It will take a month or more of calibration and testing before RapidScat's winds are ready for real-time forecasting, but this sample data from Simon shows that we have a great new tool to help out with hurricane and marine wind forecasting! See my blog post on RapidScat from September 30 and NASA's October 6 article for more details on this promising new instrument.


Figure 5. Tropical Storm Simon's winds as seen by the International Space Station-RapidScat scatterometer as the storm approached Mexico's Baja California Peninsula at 0210 UTC Time Oct 4 (7:10 p.m. PDT Oct 3). At the time, Simon was intensifying and had top winds of 50 mph. RapidScat gives erroneously high winds in precipitation, and the higher winds (red colors) in this image are not as strong as indicated. Image Credit: NASA-JPL/Caltech.


Video 1. Time-lapse footage of the RapidScat "wind watcher" instrument being installed on the International Space Station, followed by reaction by the team after its activation.

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Hudhud a threat to India
It's October, the usual time of year when the Southwest Monsoon over India begins to wane. As the monsoon retreats southwards away from India, its dominance over the atmosphere in the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal weakens, allowing tropical cyclones to form after a four-month period of conditions hostile for tropical cyclone formation. The North Indian Ocean typically has two tropical cyclone seasons: one in May before the arrival of the monsoon, and one in October - November as the monsoon retreats. This second season is now at hand, as we have Tropical Cyclone Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Hudhud was a strengthening tropical storm with 50 mph winds at 11 am EDT Wednesday, and the storm is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots and is over warm waters of 29°C (84°F)--conditions which favor intensification. Satellite loops show a well-organized system with plenty of low-level spiral bands and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. With warmer sea surface temperatures ahead of the storm and wind shear expected to remain light to moderate, intensification into at least a Category 3 cyclone appears likely before Hudhud hits the central east coast of India on Sunday between 00 - 12 UTC.

Quiet in the Atlantic
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days in the Atlantic, though we should watch an area of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and Bermuda that could develop early next week. If development does occur, Bermuda would likely be the only land area affected by the storm.

Heavy rains in Central America
A low pressure area over Central America will move off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua late this week and potentially spawn a tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific this weekend. The UKMET and GFS models do develop this system, while the European model does not. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this Pacific disturbance 5-day development odds of 30%. This disturbance is a threat to bring heavy rains and dangerous flooding to Central America over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc. Super Typhoon it is.
Thanks doc!
with all those storms over there you just know north shore of oahu is getting some nice moderate sized surf. the 10 mile long shoreline is like a big surfing park.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days in the Atlantic, though we should watch an area of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and Bermuda that could develop early next week. If development does occur, Bermuda would likely be the only land area affected by the storm.
Oh finally


No pix but beautiful Lunar Eclipse viewing this morning in Maryland while walking the dogs at 6:10AM or so.

These dogs get me out to see a lot of stuff I wouldn't otherwise see.
looks like cold start for october 20th for all of florida i hope we have a cold year like 2010
Good morning

It's a partly cloudy, 88 feeling like 94 here on the island today.

It's been a long haul for me the last few weeks, having had the Chickungunya virus. I am still in recovery mode, losing my ankles every night, wrists that are really sensitive (impossible for me to open a water bottle), sore hips and itches that just won't go away. The only good thing I can say about this whole experience is that it's behind me. For all those Floridians on the blog, please take this seriously. Do everything you can to avoid getting it -- not that it helped me!

Has anyone heard from Sar? I've seen people asking about him but I've not seen any answers.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Vongfong



These models don't always depict the correct intensity, but are pretty close on track.

Thanks, doc! Long post, really.
And so this is "Hudhud" in the Indian Ocean? Googled it and found out that the arabic name was contributed from Oman and means:



Hoopoe. Quite similar word in English, but not in German, lol (it's "Wiedehopf").
the oceans are exploding
Quoting 8. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's a partly cloudy, 88 feeling like 94 here on the island today.

It's been a long haul for me the last few weeks, having had the Chickungunya virus. I am still in recovery mode, losing my ankles every night, wrists that are really sensitive (impossible for me to open a water bottle), sore hips and itches that just won't go away. The only good thing I can say about this whole experience is that it's behind me. For all those Floridians on the blog, please take this seriously. Do everything you can to avoid getting it -- not that I helped me!

Has anyone heard from Sar? I've seen people asking about him but I've not seen any answers.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy



Hope you're on the mend. Not a nice thing to have. Sar is just over-blogged and is fine. He was on yesterday.
13. JRRP

14.329 N 46.082 W
That image montage tells the tale--Haiyan was the elite of the elite, and probably unchallenged by any other storm.
Thanks Dr. Masters, and Hey everyone, good morning, I have something to say, and watch, I follow each and everyone of you guys, I have been loving weather since a baby, I was 3 when Hurricane Andrew devastated Homestead, Fl, I was living by Miami international airport, and I remember like 3 minutes of it, since that day, I have been obsessed with weather, mother nature and its fury. I like all you guys post, and I learn more and more, though I know a lot, lol. Anyways I wanted to say that for the folks in the lesser Antilles, and PR, don't think that hurricane season is over, Ive seen post where people write that the cape Verde season is over, so its okay, but who here remembers Hurricane Lenny forming south of Cuba and moving due EAST instead of going north, also in the DR Hurricane Omar, Tropical Storm Klaus also came from the Caribbean and moved ENE over PR. It might had been a slow season , but please don't let your guards down in the islands, there will be a strong MJO over the SW Caribbean and central Atlantic, some models have been showing a strong wave over PR late next week, shear seems to go down some also next week, just something to keep an eye on. Thanks for your time and any thoughts?
Quoting 12. Grothar:




Hope you're on the mend. Not a nice thing to have. Sar is just over-blogged and is fine. He was on yesterday.


Yes, I'm on the mend, albeit a long one! Thanks for asking and thanks for the answer, Gro!
looks like low pressure is setting up just to west of nicaraqua they are finally getting their needed rain
Quoting 10. barbamz:

Thanks, doc! Long post, really.
And so this is "Hudhud" in the Indian Ocean? Googled it and found out that the arabic name was contributed from Oman and means:



Hoopoe. Quite similar word in English, but not in German, lol (it's "Wiedehopf").


Just as long as they don't show a Zwergseeschwalbe or a Rauchschwalbe!
Quoting 15. 882MB:

Thanks Dr. Masters, and Hey everyone, good morning, I have something to say, and watch, I follow each and everyone of you guys, I have been loving weather since a baby, I was 3 when Hurricane Andrew devastated Homestead, Fl, I was living by Miami international airport, and I remember like 3 minutes of it, since that day, I have been obsessed with weather, mother nature and its fury. I like all you guys post, and I learn more and more, though I know a lot, lol. Anyways I wanted to say that for the folks in the lesser Antilles, and PR, don't think that hurricane season is over, Ive seen post where people write that the cape Verde season is over, so its okay, but who here remembers Hurricane Lenny forming south of Cuba and moving due EAST instead of going north, also in the DR Hurricane Omar, Tropical Storm Klaus also came from the Caribbean and moved ENE over PR. It might had been a slow season , but please don't let your guards down in the islands, there will be a strong MJO over the SW Caribbean and central Atlantic, some models have been showing a strong wave over PR late next week, shear seems to go down some also next week, just something to keep an eye on. Thanks for your time and any thoughts?


My storm that got me into weather near your age was Fran so we got hooked basically the same way.
20. JRRP
SYNOPSIS 2014100700

P48L
22N, 50W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Tracks SW, west, then NW during the 120 hour forecast, so I just use a zonal phase speed. OW increases, especially after 36 hours, to peak near 3x10-9 s-2 during the 72-96 hour period, then weakens as it turns to the northwest.

GFS: Tracks SW, stalls, then tracks NW. Gets organized once tracking to the NW. OW rises only modestly to over 2x10-9 s-2 during the 96-108 hour period.

UKMET: Initial OW values during the first 12 hours is almost 3x10-9 s-2. Pouch weakens a bit after 12 hours, but it grows and OW gradually increases, reaching the initial value again during the 72-96 hour period.

NAVGEM: Similar to other models, but weaker. Tracked for only 96 hours.

HWRF-GEN: Similar SW and then NW track as in other models. Spins up a tiny OW max at 36 hours, which then becomes the focus of P48L development. OW peaks at 7x10-9 s-2 at 72 hours.
Hudhud:

Quoting 18. Grothar:



Just as long as they don't show a Zwergseeschwalbe or a Rauchschwalbe!


I'm gonna go for a guess...zwergseeshwalbe is dark sea swallow?
Mark your calendar for August 21, 2017. Total solar eclipse. It will be visible as a total eclipse in a path running roughly northwest from South Carolina across the country. Prime viewing will be just south of Carbondale, IL, where the total eclipse will last about 2.75 minutes.

Other areas of the country will see more light leaking around the moon, so they'll get a partial eclipse.



Quoting 6. georgevandenberghe:

No pix but beautiful Lunar Eclipse viewing this morning in Maryland while walking the dogs at 6:10AM or so.

Quoting 14. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That image montage tells the tale--Haiyan was the elite of the elite, and probably unchallenged by any other storm.


Absolutely. Best core of a hurricane I've ever seen. I do have however a soft spot for Isabel at peak because of the pinwheel eye and the annular appearance (and she got me out of school) but Haiyan was truly a masterpiece from mom nature.
Quoting 22. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'm gonna go for a guess...zwergseeshwalbe is dark sea swallow?


Close. It is like a tern, I think.
Quoting 15. 882MB:

Thanks Dr. Masters, and Hey everyone, good morning, I have something to say, and watch, I follow each and everyone of you guys, I have been loving weather since a baby, I was 3 when Hurricane Andrew devastated Homestead, Fl, I was living by Miami international airport, and I remember like 3 minutes of it, since that day, I have been obsessed with weather, mother nature and its fury. I like all you guys post, and I learn more and more, though I know a lot, lol. Anyways I wanted to say that for the folks in the lesser Antilles, and PR, don't think that hurricane season is over, Ive seen post where people write that the cape Verde season is over, so its okay, but who here remembers Hurricane Lenny forming south of Cuba and moving due EAST instead of going north, also in the DR Hurricane Omar, Tropical Storm Klaus also came from the Caribbean and moved ENE over PR. It might had been a slow season , but please don't let your guards down in the islands, there will be a strong MJO over the SW Caribbean and central Atlantic, some models have been showing a strong wave over PR late next week, shear seems to go down some also next week, just something to keep an eye on. Thanks for your time and any thoughts?


This was posted this morning. You are right. Don't let your guard down yet.

I'm not in a good mood today, so I won't write much. I woke up and it looks like someone let the air out of my face.




Quoting 12. Grothar:


Sar is just over-blogged and is fine. He was on yesterday.




With the best wishes to Sar (and to you too, Gro).
This wave out by Africa is looking very organized. Would not be surprised if NHC highlighted it at 2 pm TWO.
32. JRRP
The only thing in the Atlantic that I find of interest, is that system to the NE of the Antilles. It might be entering a an area of low shear soon, and the steering currents look that it could move it closer to the US east coast.

Wow... that first image of Vongfong - absolutely gorgeous. I stared at it just for a few minutes. Amazing.
Quoting 8. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's a partly cloudy, 88 feeling like 94 here on the island today.

It's been a long haul for me the last few weeks, having had the Chickungunya virus. I am still in recovery mode, losing my ankles every night, wrists that are really sensitive (impossible for me to open a water bottle), sore hips and itches that just won't go away. The only good thing I can say about this whole experience is that it's behind me. For all those Floridians on the blog, please take this seriously. Do everything you can to avoid getting it -- not that I helped me!

Has anyone heard from Sar? I've seen people asking about him but I've not seen any answers.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy


Where did you pick up Chickungunya?

Sar is ok. He's over the nonsense that goes around at times. I imagine he's just on hiatus and he'll be back.
36. JRRP
CNN Breaking News ‏@cnnbrk 6 minHace 6 minutos
Dallas Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan died this morning, the hospital says
Quoting 31. jdukes:

This wave out by Africa is looking very organized. Would not be surprised if NHC highlighted it at 2 pm TWO.



It does look good. Now we have two things to watch :)

Quoting 12. Grothar:




Hope you're on the mend. Not a nice thing to have. Sar is just over-blogged and is fine. He was on yesterday.


Kind of surprising they let him out on bail.
China Just Overtook The US As The World's Largest Economy

Not weather related obviously, but quite a milestone.




Moisture from ex-Simon streaming into the Southwest.
Quoting 35. GatorWX:



Where did you pick up Chickungunya?

Sar is ok. He's just over the nonsense that goes around at times. I imagine he's just on hiatus and he'll be back.


Hi Gator

It seems that every other person has the virus, had the virus or is probably about to get it here on St. Thomas. It's been going through these islands (St. Thomas, St. Croix, St. John and Water Island) like wild fire. I'm just finishing up a blog on it and will post it early this afternoon.

12Z NAM at 84 hours - puts a low in both the EPAC and southern Caribbean. Also develops the system in the Atlantic.

Thanks Dr. Masters!
seeing images of the earth from space has got to be one of the coolest things ever...
Quoting 40. AlbertFish:



Kind of surprising they let him out on bail.
yeah isnt it
I caught the moon coming out of the shadow. Pointed at my neighbors house, glad he did not come out so that I did not have to look like a weirdo in pajamas taking pictures of his house. LOL! I like this picture since it captures the contrast between the full"regular" lit moon, and the red eclipsed moon. (click on the picture, then click again on imgur, this will give full size).

Quoting 43. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Hi Gator

It seems that every other person has the virus, had the virus or is probably about to get it here on St. Thomas. It's been going through these islands (St. Thomas, St. Croix, St. John and Water Island) like wild fire. I'm just finishing up a blog on it and will post it early this afternoon.




Wow. I know it's begun to be contracted locally here in the States as well. I hear some people have persistent pain for a long time after the virus has been treated. Hope you're alright.
Blood Moon this morning over Hampton, VA:

glad to see that the lunar eclipse actually happened, was worried that it hadn't because i couldn't see it from my house.
My area is supposed to get 4-6 inches of rain over the next 5-7 days or so. Any bets on how much the maximum total is? I bet 6.01 inches.
Study: Daily Floods could hit East Coast cities by 2045

The time to do something is now. Of course, the time when something will actually get done is too late.
Thank You Dr. With the folks killed and/or missing from the last typhoon affecting Japan, hoping that surfers or other folks wanting to go to coast to "see" the waves, might be more careful and mindful of the potential dangers. Don't follow west-Pacific ridging patterns but it looks like this is the equivalent of some type of ridging present there at the moment that is sending two back-to-back storms in the same general trajectory. Hoping for the best and that the cooler waters weaken Vongfong.
Quoting 35. GatorWX:



Where did you pick up Chickungunya?

Sar is ok. He's over the nonsense that goes around at times. I imagine he's just on hiatus and he'll be back.
I am glad that they spray for mosquitos regularly in our area. I think I have only gotten bit 4 times all summer (by mosquitos) just hope the other biting BUGS won't be transmitters. CDC Link
Quoting 57. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Dr. With the folks killed and/or missing from the last typhoon affecting Japan, hoping that surfers or other folks wanting to go to coast to "see" the waves, might be more careful and mindful of the potential dangers. Don't follow west-Pacific ridging patterns but it looks like this is the equivalent of some type of ridging present there at the moment that is sending two back-to-back storms in the same general trajectory. Hoping for the best and that the cooler waters weaken Vongfong.
hopefully the 'recurve' will happen sooner rather than later
Yes, and the pros are not yet in town. Locals are all over it I’m sure. I have heard there has been an absence of trade winds so that may screw with it some. Although mysto spots that are normally sideshore/onshore may be going off.

Quoting 3. islander101010:

with all those storms over there you just know north shore of oahu is getting some nice moderate sized surf. the 10 mile long shoreline is like a big surfing park.
Quoting 59. JNFlori30A:

hopefully the 'recurve' will happen sooner rather than later


Looks like some of potential current ones take the "dirty" side of the storm (NE quad) right into or over the Islands......That earlier recurve would spare a lot of wind and rain damage/mudslides.
Here the latest Satt shot of the wave exiting Africa which is not on the NHC radar (or models) for potential development..................If this was late-August or early-September, we would probably be all over it but October is a tough nut to crack for a CV system with the shear increasing out ahead of it (where the other area closer to the Antilles is being sheared to death).........Same fate for this wave is probable as is keeps heading West which is why it is not being developed by the models.




Quoting 48. LargoFl:

yeah isnt it
Have you called off the hurricane warning for the Keys next weekend???
Quoting 14. TropicalAnalystwx13:
That image montage tells the tale--Haiyan was the elite of the elite, and probably unchallenged by any other storm.


If there was such a thing as recon flights in the WPac, I think they would have found the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded. Sadly, we'll never know just how unique/intense Haiyan was.
No trough in sight. Interesting steering. Sea temps are "warm enough."

Could be at least a wave maker. I need one of those. My free time is about to get severely limited by work.

Hope you are feeling better. I think it is just BWS (Blob Withdrawl Syndrome) ;-)

Quoting 33. Grothar:

The only thing in the Atlantic that I find of interest, is that system to the NE of the Antilles. It might be entering a an area of low shear soon, and the steering currents look that it could move it closer to the US east coast.


Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters....


Simon making landfall on the Baha Peninsula. :)
Quoting 59. JNFlori30A:

hopefully the 'recurve' will happen sooner rather than later


They've been pretty non-existent the last two summers here. We are lucky they spray to control them, although I'm not a fan of being outside when the plane or heli is overhead doing the spraying! The trucks, meh.
Quoting 69. GatorWX:



They've been pretty non-existent the last two summers here. We are lucky they spray to control them, although I'm not a fan of being outside when the plane or heli is overhead doing the spraying! The trucks, meh.
Considering the alternative, I'll head for cover occasionally without complaint!
So no one posted the 12z CMC??..shame on ya :)

12z Navgem..

Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Yes, and the pros are not yet in town. Locals are all over it I’m sure. I have heard there has been an absence of trade winds so that may screw with it some. Although mysto spots that are normally sideshore/onshore may be going off.

Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Yes, and the pros are not yet in town. Locals are all over it I’m sure. I have heard there has been an absence of trade winds so that may screw with it some. Although mysto spots that are normally sideshore/onshore may be going off.



Side Shore Sally
Don't know when we started calling it that but it stuck.
How was it? "Side Shore Sally"
Time to get a lift up the beach a couple miles and drift back to the car.
Quoting 58. JNFlori30A:

I am glad that they spray for mosquitos regularly in our area. I think I have only gotten bit 4 times all summer (by mosquitos) just hope the other biting incests won't be transmitters. CDC Link



Oh lordy..
77. JRRP
the real action

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the Leeward Islands are associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally favorable, and some development of this
system is possible through the weekend while it moves generally
northwestward toward the western Atlantic.
* Formation change through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Realistic:

Not so much:

Quoting 75. Articuno:



Oh lordy..
lol... death by spellcheck :/
LOL!

My personal favorite has always been "Victory at Sea" conditions.

My buddy came up with "RFC" for northeast winter days = Real F%^&#&! Cold

Quoting 74. Sfloridacat5:



Side Shore Sally
Don't know when we started calling it that but it stuck.
How was it? "Side Shore Sally"
Time to get a lift up the beach a couple miles and drift back to the car.
Quoting 76. hurricanes2018:



Crazy.
Thank you Dr. Masters
When sea levels rise, high tides will spill into communities far more often, study says
Daily flooding caused by high tides will occur in the District and Annapolis within three decades as sea levels continue to rise due to global warming, a new study says.

The study by the Union of Concerned Scientists predicts that by 2045 the nation’s capital and the capital of Maryland will experience about 400 floods per year, sometimes twice in a single day, and several other cities and towns on the Atlantic coast will have tidal flooding almost as bad. Miami, Atlantic City, Cape May, N.J., and Lewisetta and Windmill Point, both on the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia, can expect at least 240 days of flooding by 2045. High-tide floods along the Atlantic coast in Baltimore, Norfolk, Philadelphia, Charleston, S.C., Key West, Fla., and Sandy Hook, N.J., will happen less frequently, with about 180 events or more per year, according to the study released Wednesday.


Read the full study here.
Quoting 71. ncstorm:

So no one posted the 12z CMC??..shame on ya :)



What if that really happened. :0
average-texas-sat-math-scores-fall-to-22-year-low

This makes me sad. For no child left behind, Texas sure has a lot of equally uneducated children. Good luck, I hope there is a future for you kids.
Link
Mmm

I wonder what would happen if CMC/GEM and NAM
Ended up correct with the SW Carib/Central America AOI

If I can recall correctly I think it was the CMC that did do the first few storms correct anyway

Anyway that's just a thought

IMHO I still think we could see 2 systems
One in EPac and the other in the SW Carib plus the one E of Bahamas/NE of Carib

We will just have to wait and see
12Z CMC looks like the 12Z Nam

12Z Nam
From the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:
Why Florida’s record-setting hurricane drought portends danger
By Jason Samenow
Florida has gone 3,270 days without a hurricane – nearly nine years and, by far, the longest stretch on record (the next longest streak is 5 seasons from 1980-1984, in records dating back to 1851). Meanwhile, the Sunshine state’s population and development have boomed. Florida is long overdue for a destructive hurricane and has never had so many people and so much property in the way. This dangerous state of affairs is compounded by the potential for complacency and lack of recent experience. When hurricanes don’t strike over such a long period of time, some people may be lulled into a false sense of security and/or forget how horrible hurricanes can be.
More here.
Link to loop


Not too much wind shear. This might become Fay. Probably Invest 99-L soon.
92. JRRP


Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON OMPONG
11:00 PM PhST October 8 2014
================================================= =============
Typhoon OMPONG has changed its course and is now moving in Northwest direction over the Philippine sea

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ompong [VONGFONG] (927 hPa) located at 18.6N 130.7E or 957 km east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 5 knots.

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5–25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

"OMPONG" is too far to affect any part of the country. However, it is enhancing the northeasterly winds resulting to rough to very rough sea conditions over the northern and western seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Luzon and Visayas. Fisher folks and those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
I can certainly see two low being able to come out of this
earlier today...

IMD satellite imagery now has Hudhud with Dvorak T3.0 (as of 15:00 PM UTC)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
1730 PM IST October 8 2014
===============================
Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward and lays centered near 12.8N 91.0E about 970 km southeast of Gopalpur and 1000 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam.

The system would continue to move west northwestwards, intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours and into a very severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 36 hours. The system would cross north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur around Sunday afternoon.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken low or medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Andaman islands and adjoining area between 10.0N to 16.0N and 86.5E to 93.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 996 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.4N 90.1E- 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.2N 89.1E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 15.5N 87.1E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 16.9N 84.8E - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
===================
The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18.0N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. The system is tracking west northwest along the sub-tropical ridge. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased further in past 12 hrs. The upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable for further intensification of the system.
Quoting 86. Pipejazz:

average-texas-sat-math-scores-fall-to-22-year-low

This makes me sad. For no child left behind, Texas sure has a lot of equally uneducated children. Good luck, I hope there is a future for you kids.
Link


That's because we teach to the lowest common denominator ...by attempting to make everyone a "winner" it appears that we are creating many "losers"
Sad I tell ya
Quoting 90. etxwx:

From the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:
Why Florida’s record-setting hurricane drought portends danger
By Jason Samenow
Florida has gone 3,270 days without a hurricane – nearly nine years and, by far, the longest stretch on record (the next longest streak is 5 seasons from 1980-1984, in records dating back to 1851). Meanwhile, the Sunshine state’s population and development have boomed. Florida is long overdue for a destructive hurricane and has never had so many people and so much property in the way. This dangerous state of affairs is compounded by the potential for complacency and lack of recent experience. When hurricanes don’t strike over such a long period of time, some people may be lulled into a false sense of security and/or forget how horrible hurricanes can be.
More here.
Good post..Another concern is although there may be fewer storms, hurricanes are forecast to become larger and more intense. This increases the dangers and impacts associated with cyclone landfalls, especially worse case scenario events.
Quoting 90. etxwx:

From the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:
Why Florida’s record-setting hurricane drought portends danger
By Jason Samenow
Florida has gone 3,270 days without a hurricane – nearly nine years and, by far, the longest stretch on record (the next longest streak is 5 seasons from 1980-1984, in records dating back to 1851). Meanwhile, the Sunshine state’s population and development have boomed. Florida is long overdue for a destructive hurricane and has never had so many people and so much property in the way. This dangerous state of affairs is compounded by the potential for complacency and lack of recent experience. When hurricanes don’t strike over such a long period of time, some people may be lulled into a false sense of security and/or forget how horrible hurricanes can be.
More here.
good post and im afraid they are right
The image of Vongfong above, gets my vote for "Prettty Storm 2014'' so far this round.
Beautiful. Awesome.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure over Nicaragua and Costa Rica is
expected to move slowly westward into the far eastern Pacific over
the next couple of days. Gradual development of this system is
possible south or southwest of the coast of Central America late
this week or this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward
or northwestward.

the yellow x will move in the eastern Pacific soon!
simons rains hitting the SW.................................
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SELLS...AND AJO

* UNTIL 230 PM MST

* AT 833 AM MST...A STEADY AND MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THIS STEADY AND PROLONGED RAINFALL HAD RESULTED IN MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE SPOTS AS WELL AS
ELEVATED FLOWS IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES. THE WATER LEVEL IN THE SAN
SIMON WASH NEAR PISINIMO ON THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION HAD RISEN
ABOUT 4 FEET BUT WAS STILL WELL WITHIN THE BANKS OF THE WASH THIS
MORNING.

PERIODS OF MODERATE AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MUCH OF DAY BEFORE LETTING UP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

I think we may see a new low form in the SW Carib some time within the next 72hrs
can someone tell me what feature is allowing for convection the west and south west caribbean and what is causing the area around the Cayman islands to remain so convective free and air that looks almost dusty....its almost like we have a forcefield around us..
Quoting 94. wunderkidcayman:

I can certainly see two low being able to come out of this

Agree!! you can see spin both in the Eastern Pacific side and in the South Western Caribbbean,we may have 2 systems in a few days
Quoting 83. LargoFl:





Quoting 99. pottery:

The image of Vongfong above, gets my vote for "Prettty Storm 2014'' so far this round.
Beautiful. Awesome.


I do concur, sir.
Quoting 94. wunderkidcayman:

I can certainly see two low being able to come out of this



Hate to disappoint but it doesn't look like it (NHC is certainly on-board with just a Pacific storm). All the energy is in the Pacific side this year. The GFS finally got wise to what is really going on. Things may change yet and maybe there will be something later this month but that is too far out to even speculate or worry about.
how reliable is the canadian Gem model?............................................ ..........
Quoting 86. Pipejazz:

average-texas-sat-math-scores-fall-to-22-year-low

This makes me sad. For no child left behind, Texas sure has a lot of equally uneducated children. Good luck, I hope there is a future for you kids.
Link
Just need more foreign language proficient teachers is all.
Afternoon all.

From the 2 p.m. TWD...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
15N20W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 9N20W TO 7N21W MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND COINCIDES WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-14N BETWEEN 19W AND 25W.

At a glance this area looks interesting, though i suppose conditions will remain unfavorable.

More later if time permits....
Nam has the atlantic one also.............................................. ..................
Quoting 111. LargoFl:

how reliable is the canadian Gem model?............................................ ..........


At 240 hours? Not at all.
I guess the fronts will keep that atlantic storm off our coastline,pushing it away huh
Quoting 118. jrweatherman:



At 240 hours? Not at all.
ok thanks


great picture of fall!!
12Z CMA has a hurricane going into the GOM


Post #116. On the visible loop, you can clearly see the rotation over land. Certainly looks like another Pacific storm. Why not? They should be running out of names soon...
Quoting 110. jrweatherman:



Hate to disappoint but it doesn't look like it (NHC is certainly on-board with just a Pacific storm). All the energy is in the Pacific side this year. The GFS finally got wise to what is really going on. Things may change yet and maybe there will be something later this month but that is too far out to even speculate or worry about.
Actually on the latest vorticity map it is now an area of vort in the SW Caribbean and on the Pacific side. Just might turn out to be 2 separate systems like some models were showing. Time will tell.
Quoting 19N81W:
can someone tell me what feature is allowing for convection the west and south west caribbean and what is causing the area around the Cayman islands to remain so convective free and air that looks almost dusty....its almost like we have a forcefield around us..


Don't worry about that yet

And I would love to know why we get a convectiveless dome around us time to time
Quoting 119. LargoFl:

I guess the fronts will keep that atlantic storm off our coastline,pushing it away huh
Sure hope so. From where it is it'd be a doozy if it ended up west of 75W...
Quoting 121. hurricanes2018:



great picture of fall!!
I gotta admit it is not feeling much like "fall" around here... :o) Did you take this one, or did you find it online?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Actually on the latest vorticity map it is now an area of vort in the SW Caribbean and on the Pacific side. Just might turn out to be 2 separate systems like some models were showing. Time will tell.


Like I just said I can see two lows coming out of this
Some people are just too blinded to see it
I'm glad the NHC finally took notice. I've been posting this since last night. :):)

This could be a potential threat to the North and South Carolina area (ok presslord). Some indications down the road that this could stall for a day or two near the Bahamas.

CMA 168hrs

FIM 7 168hrs

FIM 9 168hrs

FIM 8 168hrs

NAM
84hrs
Quoting 124. stormwatcherCI:

Actually on the latest vorticity map it is now an area of vort in the SW Caribbean and on the Pacific side. Just might turn out to be 2 separate systems like some models were showing. Time will tell.


Yes, but 850 vort was more prevalent yesterday, diminished and as you mentioned has returned. It is still more pronounced on the Pacific side. I would love to know how often we get 2 storms on either side of Central America so close to each other. Maybe never? I really look at history (this year) and trends. History says the Pacific wins out and the GFS has now gone that way. We shall see. I know WKC is really rooting for this one:)
Quoting 128. wunderkidcayman:



Like I just said I can see two lows coming out of this
Some people are just too blinded to see it


So you are calling me blind?
Still nothing to sneeze at.

Quoting 124. stormwatcherCI:

Actually on the latest vorticity map it is now an area of vort in the SW Caribbean and on the Pacific side. Just might turn out to be 2 separate systems like some models were showing. Time will tell.
Greetings CI..This is where I find the GEM model useful. It seems to do well with the split low situation. It has the Pacific low hitting land and dissipating, while the Caribbean system goes on to become a hurricane in the gulf...As you said, time will tell..

Big rainmaker

Quoting 125. wunderkidcayman:



Don't worry about that yet

And I would love to know why we get a convectiveless dome around us time to time
Certain well connected Cayman visitors are calling up the HAARP commander and putting in a fair weather request... Duh!
Quoting 121. hurricanes2018:



great picture of fall!!
Looks like where I used to live in middle TN.. When I saw it at first I thought it was one of mine lol.. well actually it could be.. I'll have to look through the archives... but I don't have time so.. nevermind...
140. JRRP

amazing
Quoting 139. JNFlori30A:

Looks like where I used to live in middle TN.. When I saw it at first I thought it was one of mine lol.. well actually it could be.. I'll have to look through the archives... but I don't have time so.. nevermind...

The leaves are just starting to turn here in Rock Island.
Quoting 140. JRRP:


amazing



there's a rabbit in the atlantic!!
143. JRRP
Quoting ncstorm:


there's a rabbit in the atlantic!!
jeje
My attention has shifted (for now) to NE of Antilles.

Quoting 108. GatorWX:





Quoting 141. hydrus:

The leaves are just starting to turn here in Rock Island.


The pine needles and sabal fronds are still green here :p


low of 1008 in the Atlantic
Quoting 147. SFLWeatherman:

EURO

SFL are you deleting that "undefined" before you post a pic? sometimes i find a small piece of it remains and the pic wont post.
Leaves on my oaks just starting to fall and the squirrels are loving the acorns lol
Thanks Gro.

I certainly see some spin on visible although not sure at what level. There is nothing notable to recurve this decisively OTS if it did form...nothing that I can see in the next 7 days at least.

I'm looking forward to everyone else's thoughts.

Quoting 129. Grothar:

I'm glad the NHC finally took notice. I've been posting this since last night. :):)

This could be a potential threat to the North and South Carolina area (ok presslord). Some indications down the road that this could stall for a day or two near the Bahamas.


151. JRRP
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 1 minHace 1 minuto
MJO+CCKW forcing should break our Atlantic TC drought-- 1-2 in the next 2 weeks? maybe 1st one well NE of Puerto Rico
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON VONGFONG (1419)
3:00 AM JST October 9 2014
===================================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vongfong (900 hPa) located at 18.8N 130.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
270 NM from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 20.6N 130.3E - 110 knots (Intense Typhoon/CAT 5) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS 23.7N 131.0E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) south of Minami Daito Island
72 HRS 27.0N 131.3E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Minami Daito Island waters


nice looking eye here!!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
20:30 PM IST October 8 2014
===============================
Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward and lays centered near 13.0N 90.5E about 920 km southeast of Gopalpur and 930 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam.

The system would continue to move west northwestwards , intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a very severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. The system would cross northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur around Sunday afternoon.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low or medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Andaman islands and adjoining area between 10.0N to 17.5N and 86.0E to 92.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 994 hPa

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 13.5N 90.0E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.2N 89.1E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 15.5N 87.1E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 16.9N 84.8E - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
==================
The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18.0N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. The system is tracking west northwest along the sub-tropical ridge. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased further in past 12 hrs. The upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable for further intensification of the system.
Good afternoon everyone

I finally completed my "Chikungunya Virus" blog for anyone that is interested. Link

Many thanks for the emails showing such an interest in this.

Lindy
Quoting 129. Grothar:

I'm glad the NHC finally took notice. I've been posting this since last night. :):)

This could be a potential threat to the North and South Carolina area (ok presslord). Some indications down the road that this could stall for a day or two near the Bahamas.




A NC/SC threat in October? Phooey!

Quoting 148. LargoFl:

SFL are you deleting that "undefined" before you post a pic? sometimes i find a small piece of it remains and the pic wont post.


Weatherbell pics I believe..he/she has to post image to host site and then post it so everyone can see..
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Thanks Gro.

I certainly see some spin on visible although not sure at what level. There is nothing notable to recurve this decisively OTS if it did form...nothing that I can see in the next 7 days at least.

I'm looking forward to everyone else's thoughts.



A couple days ago the GFS had the low coming much closer to the U.S ( just off the Outerbanks).
I know Washington (forget his full screen name but he's from Washington D.C) and I were discussing the system.


South |
- Dry and warm conditions dominate the region Wednesday.
- Highs reach the 80s to lower 90s.
- A few thunderstorms will rumble across Arkansas this afternoon with a few more isolated storms possible through Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia along a slow-moving cold front.
- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms bubble up in southern Florida.
- High temperatures will generally be in the 80s and lower 90s region-wide.
Vongfong: Japan Deja Vu
A second typhoon hit appears likely in parts of Japan this weekend.

06Z GFS Tuesday
As you can see the GFS had the system pretty close to the Outerbanks on yesterday's early morning run.

As of 12 a.m. Japanese time Thursday (11 a.m. EDT Wednesday in the U.S.), the eye of Vongfong was just under 600 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, moving northwest at 8 mph.

Maximum sustained winds had tailed off a bit, but were still an estimated 165 mph, solidly the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane, according to the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

With low vertical wind shear (change in wind speed and/or direction with height), impressive outflow (winds in the upper levels spreading apart from the center, favoring upward motion and thunderstorms) and warm western Pacific water, Vongfong intensified explosively.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, Vongfong surpassed Genevieve for the most intense western Pacific typhoon of 2014 by estimated central pressure (900 millibars). On the JMA typhoon intensity scale, Vongfong is the third "violent typhoon" of 2014,
Quoting 162. Sfloridacat5:

06Z GFS Tuesday
As you can see the GFS had the system pretty close to the Outerbanks yesterday early morning's run.


System slowly progressing along, minding it's own business, it may surprise.

Rain thats all that the menue holds for us today .
Updated CPC maps..can someone tell the CPC that Fall is here? This didnt even look like this during the summer..



Quoting 136. hydrus:

Greetings CI..This is where I find the GEM model useful. It seems to do well with the split low situation. It has the Pacific low hitting land and dissipating, while the Caribbean system goes on to become a hurricane in the gulf...As you said, time will tell..


It just may develop in the Pacific but I still think there is a chance something develops in the W. Caribbean. Convection is much better on this side. Who knows :)
Quoting 158. ncstorm:



Weatherbell pics I believe..he/she has to post image to host site and then post it so everyone can see..
oh ok thanks
Wonder if the weather in October 1954 is similar to what we are experiencing in October 2014. So much for "trough after trough" lining up to knock any potential storms safely OTS. Today feels like August here. Be lucky to see a trace of rain in the next 7 days. No complaints...I've been outside as much as possible this glorious October.

Quoting 156. win1gamegiantsplease:



A NC/SC threat in October? Phooey!


12Z EURO develops the low in the EPAC (not another storm in the EPAC).
NADA in the Caribbean
Quoting 170. Sfloridacat5:

12Z EURO develops the low in the EPAC (not another storm in the EPAC).
NADA in the Caribbean

That has certainly been the norm. If the monsoon trof moves north, there may be the all to easy shift back to the Caribbean..its wait and see.
Quoting 169. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wonder if the weather in October 1954 is similar to what we are experiencing in October 2014. So much for "trough after trough" lining up to knock any potential storms safely OTS. Today feels like August here. Be lucky to see a trace of rain in the next 7 days. No complaints...I've been outside as much as possible this glorious October.




Our fall is supposed to be above average temperature-wise...and I think Hazel evolved from a wave unlike most fall tc's. I will likely do a blog on the 60th anniversary though NWS-ILM is making their own page too.
173. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA ,  Navy at Monterey, aviationweather.org & U. of Washington.
SUBJECT:: observing the tropical areas from west Mexico to the central Atlantic.
PERIOD:: 201410-08;091z5_;1845z (Monterey imgs were down (for me) i added the no img text.)

(no frills version, utube can't give me an embed why who knows) am in good standing bring them LIVE feeds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyCGqC9a-oc

▬ Atlantic ocean and the Tropical watch is on for some TW to form towards the Pacific off Mexico's coast then to observe the Caribbean area(s).

▬ (The rewind is for those that use "smartvideo for youtube" as it allows end of video clips to rewind (good for slow connections as one can set buffer to as low as 1%). If one sets rewind it allows a if i may call it a toggle look, some like that approach in studying motions.)
Look at the Caribbean right now
Quoting 174. SFLWeatherman:

Look at the Caribbean right now



just the effect of the afternoon.


warm up

Super Typhoon Vongfong

Super Typhoon Vongfong
Last Updated Oct 9, 2014 18 GMT
Location 18.8N 130.4E Movement WNW
Wind 165 MPH
Quoting 174. SFLWeatherman:

Look at the Caribbean right now

It will be interesting to watch how this situation evolves. I said earlier if the monsoon trof moves north, we could have a large development in the Western Caribbean. The GEM ( which I know is prone to exaggerate cyclones ) does do well with the split low scenario. It shows the Pacific Low dissipating over land, and the Caribbean Low strengthening and headed toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Quoting 149. LargoFl:

Leaves on my oaks just starting to fall and the squirrels are loving the acorns lol

Here's the only changing foliage I've seen round these NW FL parts... Not sure what type of tree this be, but the red sticks out like an aching digit!
Our Spring 2014...


Quoting 159. Sfloridacat5:



A couple days ago the GFS had the low coming much closer to the U.S ( just off the Outerbanks).
I know Washington (forget his full screen name but he's from Washington D.C) and I were discussing the system.



George?.Oh well he's from College Park.But still close to D.C.Yeah he's been talking about another Hazel like event for D.C for a while now.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Look at the Caribbean right now

Yes indeed

Quoting pablosyn:


just the effect of the afternoon.


Umm actually no
From Midday onwards to midnight normally that stuff decreases and from Midnight to Midday it increases and both peaks at Sundown and Sunrise respectively


Quoting hydrus:
It will be interesting to watch how this situation evolves. I said earlier if the monsoon trof moves north, we could have a large development in the Western Caribbean. The GEM ( which I know is prone to exaggerate cyclones ) does do well with the split low scenario. It shows the Pacific Low dissipating over land, and the Caribbean Low strengthening and headed toward the Gulf of Mexico.



Yes it will be indeed
Also I do believe that GEM did fairly well with the first couple of storms for this season

As I said before IMHO I think we could very well get two lows on in Epac next one in Wcarib
Hmm something is wrong with the 18Z sfc charts it's like its been redrawn

Now new added low in the SW Caribbean
Some other things are missing too

And according to the SFC obs on the chart another low should be in the SW Carib closer to Colombia also the extension of the monsoon Trof towards Colombia

I'm guessing we will get a clearer picture at the 00Z update later tonight

I'm surprised Vongfong hasn't gone through any structural changes.
186. IDTH
Quoting 156. win1gamegiantsplease:



A NC/SC threat in October? Phooey!



60 years it has been since Hazel. I don't think Wilmington has experienced anything close to Hazel since.
lets hope Super Typhoon Vongfong weak fast before making a landfall
Quoting 186. IDTH:


60 years it has been since Hazel. I don't think Wilmington has experienced anything close to Hazel since.
Hazel was a very destructive and deadly hurricane. A storm like Hazel today would do tremendous damage.
189. SLU
Last chance to see an Atlantic TC until JJA 2015

Agreed. I don't think many places, including Toronto, have experienced anything close to Hazel. I just brushed up on the Wikipedia page. Holy cow, what an onslaught even inland. One thing for sure, she was moving fast.

Quoting 186. IDTH:


60 years it has been since Hazel. I don't think Wilmington has experienced anything close to Hazel since.
Quoting 186. IDTH:


60 years it has been since Hazel. I don't think Wilmington has experienced anything close to Hazel since.


Honestly it could have been worse for Wilmington. The worst scenario would be a northward moving system at about Hugo speed (~30 mph, Hazel was faster) where it retains it's energy but still has the time to either push more water, increase wind damage, and being in the Gulf Stream possibly strengthen or stay steady and makes landfall near Caswell Beach/Southport and curves out on a similar path to the NC coastline. Regardless of what time of year it is (the highest annual tide is this time of year) the surge up the Cape Fear system would be above and beyond anything on record. And the beaches from Brunswick to Carteret Counties would be in bad shape.
192. vis0

Quoting 135. Grothar:

Still nothing to sneeze at.



Can anyone please post a link to the UKMET model I can't see it anymore where I used to. Has there been some sort of pay to play change or something?
Quoting 193. DogtownMex:

Can anyone please post a link to the UKMET model I can't see it anymore where I used to. Has there been some sort of pay to play change or something?
NOAA isnt supporting UKMET anymore.....................Update (10/5/2014): We will be removing the UKMET from our model selection menu beginning the week of October 5th, 2014. The UKMET has been discontinued via NOAAport and there are no plans to support its dissemination.
3 runs on GEM and this hurricane hasnt moved,might be suspect...................
It is this type of set up that can do a significant amount of damage here..


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
422 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WET FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER ALBERTA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IT
DOES, AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP JUST
NORTH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
ANYWHERE FROM 1.6 TO 1.9 THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE CURRENT WPC 1 TO 3 DAY QPF TOTALS
ARE AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
TEMPERATURES AND QPF WILL BE DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
SURFACE FRONT SETS UP THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM FOR ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL AS IT UNFOLDS
. WENT SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN MOS TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN INCREASE IN 850MB WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 60 KTS OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME ACTIVE WEATHER IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY
OUT AND BECOME COOLER AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS IN DURING THE LATTER
PART OF TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

The ground is saturated already, so the trees come up, and flash flooding can occur.
Link

Excellent Levi analysis....
18Z NAM
Quoting Dr. Masters:

Vongfong is Earth's fourth Category 5 storm of 2014, and the second in the Western Pacific. The other Western Pacific Cat 5 was Super Typhoon Halong, which topped out at 160 mph winds on August 3, eventually making landfall in Japan on August 10 as a tropical storm. Another Western Pacific Super Typhoon, Rammasun, was only rated a Cat 4 when it hit China's Hainan Island on July 17, killing 195 people and causing over $7 billion in damage. However, a pressure characteristic of a Category 5 storm, 899.2 mb, was recorded at Qizhou Island just before Rammasun hit Hainan Island. If this pressure is verified, it is likely that the storm will be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season reanalysis. The Eastern Pacific has had two Cat 5s in 2014 that did not affect land: Marie (160 mph winds) and Genevieve (160 mph winds.) The South Indian Ocean has had one Cat 5 this year, Tropical Cyclone Gillian in March (160 mph winds.) Gillian did not affect any land areas. Between 2000 - 2013, Earth averaged five Category 5 storms per year, with 51% of these occurring in the Western Pacific.

Someone help me out here. I saw this yesterday, too, but I was on so late that even the graveyard shift had already died and gone to hurricane heaven.

Let's all count together...
Halong (WPac) - ONE
Marie (EPac) - TWO
Genevieve (EPac) - THREE
Gillian (SInd) - FOUR

So Vongfong (WPac) is number... uhhhh... FIVE. Yes?!

(Surprised one of you nit pickers has't already picked this particular nit.
Or is it being left as an exercise for post-season analysis? ;)


flooding rain!!


two hurricanes here!!
18Z GFS at 120 hours
Not much to talk about. Low in the EPAC not doing too much yet. Nothing in the Caribbean and the Atlantic system is all but gone.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
23:30 PM IST October 8 2014
===============================
Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts


At 18:00 PM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm HUDHUD over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west north westward and lays centered near 13.2N 90.2E about 890 km southeast of Gopalpur and 900 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam.

The system would continue to move west northwestwards , intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a very severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. The system would cross northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur around Sunday afternoon.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low or medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Andaman islands and adjoining area between 10.0N to 17.5N and 84.5E to 92.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 994 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 13.6N 89.8E - 50 to 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.1N 89.4E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 15.5N 87.3E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 16.9N 84.8E - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
=======================
The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18.0N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. The system is tracking west northwest along the sub-tropical ridge. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased further in past 12 hrs. The upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable for further intensification of the system.
Oct .8, 2014 3:54 pm ET
Midwest |
- Unsettled weather will expand across the Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, and into parts of the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
- Scattered thunderstorms developing to the north of a front over Kansas and Missouri Wednesday night could produce some large hail along with some locally heavy downpours.
- Showers and storms will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of Kansas and Missouri on Thursday with over an inch of rain possible through the day.
- Localized flooding will be possible, especially over Kansas and Missouri where rainfall amounts could exceed two inches through Thursday afternoon.
- Lighter rainfall will streak out of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois by early Thursday and will slide across Indiana and Ohio by Thursday afternoon.
- Temperatures will be slightly below average on Thursday with highs ranging from the 40s and 50s across the northern Plains and western lakes, to the 60s and 70s across Kansas, Missouri and the Ohio Valley.
-Some 70s and 80s could sneak northward into southern Kansas and Missouri.
Okinawa AFN page

Here's the latest update for Super Typhoon Vongfong, from the 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Okinawa is currently in TCCOR 4. AT 3pm today Super Typhoon Vongfong was located 626 nautical miles South-Southeast of Kadena. It had winds gusting to 201 miles per hour near its center and was moving to the West-Northwest at 8 mph.

The closest point of approach is forecast to be 121 miles East-Northeast of Kadena at 6am on Sunday.

If Super Typhoon Vongfong continues to move as forecast, damaging winds of 57 mph or greater (sustained) are not anticipated to occur. The strongest winds on Okinawa are expected to be sustained at 51 mph with 74 mph gusts at 1am Sunday.

Nows the time to prepare for possible storm impact by cleaning your home and work space, make necessary Commissary runs and stay tuned to AFN Radio Wave 89.1FM and the AFN Facebook Page at www.Facebook.com/wave89

We'll post updates as they are available.

--GySgt Griffin
Remnants of Simon causing street flooding in Tucson.

Vongfong in the morning light, still looking the same.
18z GFS moves the system into the EPAC and then sends it into the BOC going north

VongFong
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 201. hurricanes2018:



two hurricanes here!!
I think the CMC is sharing drugs with the GFS.
The models are a mess right now. Not even worth looking at, at least for the SW Caribbean and East Pacific area. If anything develops there in the next 7 days, it'll be in the East Pacific, and there's a pretty good chance that will happen. With a strong MJO pulse coming in, we may have to look back down there in 10-14 days. Of more interest in the Atlantic now is the area that the NHC has circled. That has a decent chance to develop. The NHC is being pretty cautious on it to start with but we should see the percentages slowly go up in the next couple days. No threat to land.



big mess over here!
Quoting 182. washingtonian115:

George?.Oh well he's from College Park.But still close to D.C.Yeah he's been talking about another Hazel like event for D.C for a while now.


Just worried about it. Don't see it happening in the next few days and beyond that it's speculation. But it will eventually happen again and there is potential for worse.

latin american system not bad considering its over land. large area of moisture and pronounced spin
Quoting 125. wunderkidcayman:



Don't worry about that yet

And I would love to know why we get a convectiveless dome around us time to time

It's not scientific but you might have noticed that those who wish the hardest for storms have turned out to be the ones that get the least action.
Quoting CosmicEvents:

It's not scientific but you might have noticed that those who wish the hardest for storms have turned out to be the ones that get the least action.


Commencing storm wishing!
Quoting 216. CosmicEvents:


It's not scientific but you might have noticed that those who wish the hardest for storms have turned out to be the ones that get the least action.

Not wishing for storms, but 2 days of good rain would be great for us right now.
Surf-forecast.com is forecasting surf at Andhra Pradesh of 16 to 24 feet on Saturday and Sunday.

Many of the deaths and property destruction of prior year Indian cyclones have resulted from the storm surge. From what I've read, the Indian government has improved dramatically in ordering evacuations and establishing shelters. One of the problems they've run into, apparently, has been the resistance of people to evacuate in time (or at all). Hopefully this time they will heed the advice. This is a truly worrisome storm.


Quoting 203. HadesGodWyvern:

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
23:30 PM IST October 8 2014
===============================
Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts

\
The system would continue to move west northwestwards , intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a very severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. The system would cross northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur around Sunday afternoon.

Quoting 216. CosmicEvents:


It's not scientific but you might have noticed that those who wish the hardest for storms have turned out to be the ones that get the least action.
Maybe I should have wished for Sandy to make landfall near my area so it could rear off out to sea.

Quoting 220. washingtonian115:

Maybe I should have wished for Sandy to make landfall near my area so it could rear off out to sea.
It's called reverse psychology, and I know from personal experience that it works. I actually had a girlfriend named Sandy. I told her once I wished we could be together always. Worked like a charm. She dumped me within a matter of days. I still celebrate the anniversary.
Quoting 221. EdwardinAlaska:


It's called reverse psychology, and I know from personal experience that it works. I actually had a girlfriend named Sandy. I told her once I wished we could be together always. Worked like a charm. She dumped me within a matter of days. I still celebrate the anniversary.

Lol.I wanted Sandy to stay away but at that point it seemed pretty set in stone what it wanted to do.I thought winter 013-014 was going to be like the other winters and even said I probably wouldn't remember it.But it's one of the most memorable.
Quoting 217. QueensWreath:



Commencing storm wishing!


...and hockey season...woohoo!
We have a full moon tonight. If anyone slept through the eclipse this morning, here's a suggestion. Get a red lollipop, go outside, hold the lollipop at arm's length, and gradually move it across the moon from left to right.** You'll be amazed how realistic this is.

I convinced my neighbors to run to the store to look for lollipops. I hope to get good photos of them holding them, since none of my eclipse photos turned out.

(**In northern hemisphere only. Right to left below the equator.)
Quoting CosmicEvents:

It's not scientific but you might have noticed that those who wish the hardest for storms have turned out to be the ones that get the least action.

Well then you should stop wishing

Why are you telling me this because I not wishing anything

Anyway as we Brits like to say

Bugger off mate
Go and find someone else to play your silly game
NHC upped the "x" to medium 30% in 5 days
Being in denial is not a good thing.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Not wishing for storms, but 2 days of good rain would be great for us right now.


I would like to have this winter season to be cool and wet unlike the past few seasons

I think our last best winter season was season 09/10

That was same time that florida froze over Cuba had iguanas falling out of trees in a frozen state and here is Cayman I think we were breaking records
I don't know all I remember I was with a few mates I was wearing like normal pants and shirt and some of my mates like hate anything lower than mid 60s they were in thick winter jacket/parkas and scarf and beenies and I was just there laughing by butt off
I am not sure if Tip clouds could have been stronger or not from the ones shown in here of Haiyan. Imo Haiyan might have been stronger than tip.
Seriously creative way to demonstrate to kids. Kudos.

Was big into astronomy as a kid in NJ. Miss the night sky in western Maine where I lived for 8 years. Remember freezing my butt off as the clearest nights were always winter.

Quoting 224. EdwardinAlaska:

We have a full moon tonight. If anyone slept through the eclipse this morning, here's a suggestion. Get a red lollipop, go outside, hold the lollipop at arm's length, and gradually move it across the moon from left to right.** You'll be amazed how realistic this is.

I convinced my neighbors to run to the store to look for lollipops. I hope to get good photos of them holding them, since none of my eclipse photos turned out.

(**In northern hemisphere only. Right to left below the equator.)

Dear Hurricanes2018:

Do any of these forecasting models you're showing take this (expected?) GOM storm into the Houston region? Please post if so.
Today was a rough day, after having to put down our 11 year old St. Bernard. She was getting old and could hardly walk, so I know it was for the best, but losing a dog you've grown up with is like losing a family member...

CSU just released their two-week forecast of Atlantic hurricane activity, predicting near-average ACE. The MJO is forecast to move into octants 1 and 2 over the next two weeks and a convectively-coupled kelvin wave is expected to traverse the basin.

Link
234. JRRP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development as a tropical or subtropical cyclone through the
weekend while the surface low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
235. JRRP
Quoting 234. JRRP:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development as a tropical or subtropical cyclone through the
weekend while the surface low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

It's gone up a bit... not surprising considering how vigorously that low has been spinning and also the fact that it seems to be holding on to the convection on the eastern side all day.

233

So sorry for your loss. I can still shed a tear for pets loved and lost many years ago.
238. JRRP
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's gone up a bit... not surprising considering how vigorously that low has been spinning and also the fact that it seems to be holding on to the convection on the eastern side all day.


here looks nice
I havent been here for a few weeks..
So someone please explain to me how to pronounce Hudhud...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today was a rough day, after having to put down our 11 year old St. Bernard. She was getting old and could hardly walk, so I know it was for the best, but losing a dog you've grown up with is like losing a family member...
I'm sorry to hear that, TA. Radar Dog is also 11 and I know that day is coming for him as well. I just hope there's a doggie heaven where they can all play together and have fun.
Quoting JRRP:

here looks nice
wll it has 30% probabilities in 5 days, 2o in 48 hrs., not bad....
242. JRRP
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 5 hHace 5 horas
NHC now X ing http://Weatherbell.com area of concern..believe this will become tropical or subtropical storm, Affect Bermuda by Sunday
Quoting JRRP:
We in PR are going to get wet with this one....
244. SLU
Thumbs down! The slowest season in 3 decades.

Quoting 166. ncstorm:

Updated CPC maps..can someone tell the CPC that Fall is here? This didnt even look like this during the summer..




These are anomaly maps, yes? Seems like the summer was cooler than average.... I'm not surprised to see a period of warmer than average to balance out the cooler summer.

Quoting 171. hydrus:

That has certainly been the norm. If the monsoon trof moves north, there may be the all to easy shift back to the Caribbean..its wait and see.
Another EPac storm would certainly be a lot less surprising at this point.... :o) However, if we do get a decent round with a CCKW, we might get the surprise. The low seems broad enough.

Quoting 175. pablosyn:



just the effect of the afternoon.
Most of the season we haven't seen even that. [shrugs]
Oodles of people to be affected by HUDHUD.

Quoting hurricanes2018:


big mess over here!
That is our October "surprice" on the making..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today was a rough day, after having to put down our 11 year old St. Bernard. She was getting old and could hardly walk, so I know it was for the best, but losing a dog you've grown up with is like losing a family member....

I'm sorry for your loss. Losing a pet you've lived with for that long is losing a family member. Dogs in particular can get very emotionally attached to you, the day I lose mine will be one of the saddest of my life. But these are just things that are bound to happen, so just keep your head up as you have a very bright future ahead of you, Cody. :)
Quoting 239. JrWeathermanFL:

I havent been here for a few weeks..
So someone please explain to me how to pronounce Hudhud...

I think it it just how it looks. "Hud-hud"
Quoting 205. Patrap:

Okinawa AFN page

Here's the latest update for Super Typhoon Vongfong, from the 18th Wing Weather Flight.

Okinawa is currently in TCCOR 4. AT 3pm today Super Typhoon Vongfong was located 626 nautical miles South-Southeast of Kadena. It had winds gusting to 201 miles per hour near its center and was moving to the West-Northwest at 8 mph.

The closest point of approach is forecast to be 121 miles East-Northeast of Kadena at 6am on Sunday.

If Super Typhoon Vongfong continues to move as forecast, damaging winds of 57 mph or greater (sustained) are not anticipated to occur. The strongest winds on Okinawa are expected to be sustained at 51 mph with 74 mph gusts at 1am Sunday.

Nows the time to prepare for possible storm impact by cleaning your home and work space, make necessary Commissary runs and stay tuned to AFN Radio Wave 89.1FM and the AFN Facebook Page at www.Facebook.com/wave89

We'll post updates as they are available.

--GySgt Griffin
Did they ever find the two missing servicemen?

Quoting 216. CosmicEvents:


It's not scientific but you might have noticed that those who wish the hardest for storms have turned out to be the ones that get the least action.
Mathematical inverse.... :o)
Quoting 219. EdwardinAlaska:

Surf-forecast.com is forecasting surf at Andhra Pradesh of 16 to 24 feet on Saturday and Sunday.

Many of the deaths and property destruction of prior year Indian cyclones have resulted from the storm surge. From what I've read, the Indian government has improved dramatically in ordering evacuations and establishing shelters. One of the problems they've run into, apparently, has been the resistance of people to evacuate in time (or at all). Hopefully this time they will heed the advice. This is a truly worrisome storm.



There's definitely been some improvement in Bangladesh.... a recent storm that even 10 years ago would have killed over 10000 due to surge impacts alone took fewer than 5000 lives there. Apparently the government has been building "evacuation" platforms where people can go to ride out the storm well above the surge. I wonder what plans have been executed along the eastern Indian coast.
Quoting 240. sar2401:

I'm sorry to hear that, TA. Radar Dog is also 11 and I know that day is coming for him as well. I just hope there's a doggie heaven where they can all play together and have fun.
Hey, good to see you around.... missed u the last couple of times I've been on...
Quoting 207. MoltenIce:

Vongfong in the morning light, still looking the same.

That's not morning light, unless I missed a memo about the sun rising in the west now...
Quoting 244. SLU:

Thumbs down! The slowest season in 3 decades.


I'm just glad whatever passed through here was low-level and disorganized.
Quoting 250. bwtranch:


While the population density along the projected landfall area is pretty high [1000 per sq mile / km?] I certainly think it would be worse if Hudhud took a turn to the right....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development as a tropical or subtropical cyclone through the
weekend while the surface low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

wow its going up to 20% and 30% maybe invest by morning

Quoting 252. Forsaken:

That's not morning light, unless I missed a memo about the sun rising in the west now...
Actually, it's now almost 10:50 a.m. in Japan. It's already Thursday there. Pretty sure that's correct.
Quoting 221. EdwardinAlaska:


It's called reverse psychology, and I know from personal experience that it works. I actually had a girlfriend named Sandy. I told her once I wished we could be together always. Worked like a charm. She dumped me within a matter of days. I still celebrate the anniversary.


...while she probably still sometimes regrets dumping you lol...
Quoting 252. Forsaken:

That's not morning light, unless I missed a memo about the sun rising in the west now...

They are at least 13 if not 14 hours ahead of EST which means it's tomorrow midmorning there now.


invest coming soon!!!
Quoting 256. EdwardinAlaska:


Actually, it's now almost 10:50 a.m. in Japan. It's already Thursday there. Pretty sure that's correct.

The timestamp on the picture is 8:01gmt, which is 5pm in japan.

But the light gives it away clearly enough, the eye is a bowl shape, brighter on the right means light is from the left, the left is west. Also the shadows of thunderstorm towers are going towards the right, again, sun is on the left, the west.

Quoting 257. Chicklit:


...while she probably often regrets dumping you lol...
Yes, I'm sure she cries salty tears regularly.

The funny thing is another former g.f. just tracked me down recently. Has there ever been a Hurricane or Super Storm named Sheryl? I'm trying to see if I recognize a pattern.....
Quoting 258. Chicklit:


They are at least 13 if not 14 hours ahead of EST which means it's tomorrow midmorning there now.
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/japan/kyoto
There's a lot of info out there on the WWW.... I can never remember all this stuff myself. I think they even have apps for this stuff on your smartphone / tablet now....

from Navy site an hour and a half ago (8:30 EST)
TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 9 October 2014

Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19%uFFFF10'(19.2%uFFFF)
E130%uFFFF00'(130.0%uFFFF)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N500km(270NM)
S330km(180NM
From Japan Meteorological Agency site Link
Good eye. I did not notice either of those things. Thanks.

Quoting 260. Forsaken:

The timestamp on the picture is 8:01gmt, which is 5pm in japan.

But the light gives it away clearly enough, the eye is a bowl shape, brighter on the right means light is from the left, the left is west. Also the shadows of thunderstorm towers are going towards the right, again, sun is on the left, the west.

Quoting 262. BahaHurican:

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/japan/kyoto
There's a lot of info out there on the WWW.... I can never remember all this stuff myself. I think they even have apps for this stuff on your smartphone / tablet now....
The timestamp on the image is 0801Z, Japan is GMT +9, 8+9=17. This image is from 5pm Tokyo time, yesterday.
Quoting 144. HaoleboySurfEC:

My attention has shifted (for now) to NE of Antilles.




Mine too. That was the idea.
Quoting 263. Chicklit:


from Navy site an hour and a half ago (8:30 EST)
TY 1419 (VONGFONG)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 9 October 2014

Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19%uFFFF10'(19.2%uFFFF)
E130%uFFFF00'(130.0%uFFFF)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N500km(270NM)
S330km(180NM
From Japan Meteorological Agency site Link
This storm is still looking pretty powerful. Good thing there aren't lots more islands in the recurve path....
268. SLU
Quoting 254. BahaHurican:

I'm just glad whatever passed through here was low-level and disorganized.
While the population density along the projected landfall area is pretty high [1000 per sq mile / km?] I certainly think it would be worse if Hudhud took a turn to the right....


Was nice to see that the biggest storm of 2014 was in the middle of nowhere
Quoting 265. Forsaken:

The timestamp on the image is 0801Z, Japan is GMT +9, 8+9=17. This image is from 5pm Tokyo time, yesterday.
I wasn't disagreeing with your comment. I was sharing a resource which I frequently use to have a more precise idea what time it is in areas outside my normal purview ... that is the ATL / EPac.

I note they have a calculator so you can figure out how many hours / time zones there are between two locations. It takes into account whether the location is using DST or not. That dateandtime.com website is actually pretty cool.
Quoting 268. SLU:



Was nice to see that the biggest storm of 2014 was in the middle of nowhere
SO FAR.... [ominous music playing]

Quoting 256. EdwardinAlaska:


Actually, it's now almost 10:50 a.m. in Japan. It's already Thursday there. Pretty sure that's correct.



That's why there are so far ahead of us. They are a day ahead.
Quoting 272. BahaHurican:

SO FAR....



U got WU mail

In which I encourage you (and others) to read VirginIslandVisitor's blog about Chickungunya virus.
Good evening all.

I have another new toy for you guys :)

I've activated forecast products for the JMA (a.k.a. Japanese) Global Spectral Model. The public data is 2.5 x 2.5 degrees - very coarse, but the actual model is run at 19km resolution (higher than the GFS). The JMA had a 5-day Z500 ACC of 0.85 for September, which is up there with the GFS in terms of forecast skill.

Enjoy! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Quoting 273. Grothar:



That's why they're are so far ahead of us. They are a day ahead.
That's what you get for letting those English blokes tell you what time it is....
Quoting 271. BahaHurican:

That dateandtime.com website is actually pretty cool.
Yeah, it is. I know how to calculate it but sometimes you get messed up with the date line. Especially if you have jet lag. :)
Sad!! Look at all that rain staying over water in the CATL....

Quoting 275. Levi32:

Good evening all.

I have another new toy for you guys :)

I've activated forecast products for the JMA (a.k.a. Japanese) Global Spectral Model. The public data is 2.5 x 2.5 degrees - very coarse, but the actual model is run at 19km resolution (higher than the GFS). The JMA had a 5-day Z500 ACC of 0.85, which is up there with the GFS in terms of forecast skill.

Enjoy! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Your site is up there in in terms of how easy it is to use and how many FREE tools are available for everyone! Very good job Levi.
Levi thats great about the JMA..the only run I was able to find was on Earl Barker's page but it only showed a US view...you have a tropical view and it goes out to 192 hours versus the 144 hours showed on his page..

Thanks!!
Quoting 238. JRRP:


here looks nice



Would be nice if it was 4 degrees south.. But of course it is not.

Quoting 274. CaicosRetiredSailor:



U got WU mail

In which I encourage you (and others) to read VirginIslandVisitor's blog about Chickungunya virus.
I already read Lindy's blog... edifying... and scary. I'm more concerned than I was 2 weeks ago because we've been having quite a bit of rain, despite the dearth of tropical activity, in the last 2 weeks.
Hope vector control is keeping up with the sprayiing....
Quoting 275. Levi32:

Good evening all.

I have another new toy for you guys :)

I've activated forecast products for the JMA (a.k.a. Japanese) Global Spectral Model. The public data is 2.5 x 2.5 degrees - very coarse, but the actual model is run at 19km resolution (higher than the GFS). The JMA had a 5-day Z500 ACC of 0.85 for September, which is up there with the GFS in terms of forecast skill.

Enjoy! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Thanks, Levi.... much appreciated.
Quoting 244. SLU:

Thumbs down! The slowest season in 3 decades.




Cristobal hitting the Gulf Coast as a significant hurricane would've been the only remedial thing for this season for me.

Like, I was literally on the cusp of chasing it.
Quoting 277. bwtranch:

Yeah, it is. I know how to calculate it but sometimes you get messed up with the date line. Especially if you have jet lag. :)
I'm OK for places I calculate regularly, like Perth, Australia, but outside that dateandtime.com is golden.... :o)
Quoting 284. KoritheMan:



Cristobal hitting the Gulf Coast as a significant hurricane would've been the only remedial thing for this season for me.

Like, I was literally on the cusp of chasing it.
I remember that.... BTW, I would like to say your "boring selfie" is at least as interesting, if not more so, than the ATL season activity so far. ....
At least the BOB and WPac are doing something, since the EPac looks like it's taking a break.
Quoting 275. Levi32:

Good evening all.

I have another new toy for you guys :)

I've activated forecast products for the JMA (a.k.a. Japanese) Global Spectral Model. The public data is 2.5 x 2.5 degrees - very coarse, but the actual model is run at 19km resolution (higher than the GFS). The JMA had a 5-day Z500 ACC of 0.85 for September, which is up there with the GFS in terms of forecast skill.

Enjoy! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/


I must say, I'm astounded someone has taken the time out of their schedule to make numerical model data on this kind of easy to interpret, & seemingly grand scale readily available to the general public and weather nuts like myself at their fingertips for free. Additionally, I've been following you & your posts ever since I started lurking on this blog in 2009, and over this prolonged stretch of time, the amount of information I have learned & become aware of thanks to you is truly immeasurable. Not to mention your website, insight & knowledge into tropical/other related phenomena, and posts are phenomenal by themselves... Each new addition to your website is greatly appreciated....
Quoting 245. BahaHurican:

These are anomaly maps, yes? Seems like the summer was cooler than average.... I'm not surprised to see a period of warmer than average to balance out the cooler summer.

Another EPac storm would certainly be a lot less surprising at this point.... :o) However, if we do get a decent round with a CCKW, we might get the surprise. The low seems broad enough.

Most of the season we haven't seen even that. [shrugs]


Yesterday, somebody posted a pic of the GFS showing much below average temperatures in the Eastern US during the third and fourth weeks of October. So those maps from CPC don't make sense to me.
Quoting 286. hurricanes2018:


Still looking pretty lopsided there.
Quoting 288. Webberweather53:



I must say, I'm astounded someone has taken the time out of their schedule to make numerical model data on this kind of easy to interpret, & seemingly grand scale readily available to the general public and weather nuts like myself at their fingertips for free. Additionally, I've been following you & your posts ever since I started lurking on this blog in 2009, and over this prolonged stretch of time, the amount of information I have learned & become aware of thanks to you is truly immeasurable. Not to mention your website, insight & knowledge into tropical/other related phenomena, and posts are phenomenal by themselves... Each new addition to your website is greatly appreciated....


Thanks for the kind words. I'm glad you enjoy my little playground. That was the intent!
Quoting 289. 12george1:


Yesterday, somebody posted a pic of the GFS showing much below average temperatures in the Eastern US during the third and fourth weeks of October. So those maps from CPC don't make sense to me.
As a trend this makes sense to me. It's not unusual to see a warmer than average October-November if August-September was cooler than average. Whether this correlates with model data is a totally different kettle of fish.
Maybe the GFS has changed its tune?
Quoting 287. BahaHurican:

I remember that.... BTW, I would like to say your "boring selfie" is at least as interesting, if not more so, than the ATL season activity so far. ....
At least the BOB and WPac are doing something, since the EPac looks like it's taking a break.


Thanks, although I don't think it's particularly difficult to be more interesting than the Atlantic this year.

Hell, I'll take it as a compliment anyway.
Quoting 291. Levi32:



Thanks for the kind words. I'm glad you enjoy my little playground. That was the intent!
We all like new toys.... :o)
Quoting 293. KoritheMan:



Thanks, although I don't think it's particularly difficult to be more interesting than the Atlantic this year.

Hell, I'll take it as a compliment anyway.
Well, I like the new look. Wha'd you do... stick the phone up somewhere on timer? At least it's not another "arm's length" one iike I've seen far too often on FB...
Quoting 292. BahaHurican:

As a trend this makes sense to me. It's not unusual to see a warmer than average October-November if August-September was cooler than average. Whether this correlates with model data is a totally different kettle of fish.
Maybe the GFS has changed its tune?

Those patterns don't work for me. I live in South Florida. Since the beginning of this year, our temperatures have been above average for every month except January.
Quoting 296. 12george1:


Those patterns don't work for me. I live in South Florida. Since the beginning of this year, our temperatures have been above average for every month except January.
I don't remember every CPC map posted, but I do recall that quite a number of them showed S FL, and in particular SE FL, anomalously warm at times when most of the rest of the eastern CONUS was much colder than average. There would be a little wedge of brown or white along the curve of the blue.

We've been average to above average most of this year in the Bahamas, so I'm not sure what's driving the S FL temps. I do remember that quite a few fronts stalled or "warmed out" before crossing the S FL area, suggesting that perhaps the typical cooler periods never materialized.
Vongfong
300. vis0
CREDIT::FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page



20141009.0056.trmm.pass.meteo-7ir.03B.HUDHUD.55kt s.982mb.13.6N.89.2E.53pc



20141008.2205.noaa18.rain.03B.HUDHUD.50kts.985mb. 13.3N.89.9E.73pc


20141009.0010.coriolis.37h.03B.HUDHUD.55kts.982mb .13.6N.89.2E.85pc



20141008.1910.Aqua.wv.modwv.HUDHUD.1KM


20141009.0230.meteo-7.vis.03B.HUDHUD.55kts.982mb. 13.6N.89.2E.100pc

was hoping to link a utube animation of wave swell predictions and mean waves showing three areas where Atl (2) & SW Carib
show expected ocean motions.  Interesting to me was the mass of cooler north ATL water expected to head towards Africa
therefore allow any TSgen to not be "shocked/cut down" by cooler waters. BUT THOSE WERE MODELS, lets see what gives
Quoting 297. Gearsts:


Glad this is 384 hours out....
Quoting 299. Skyepony:

Vongfong

Eye doesn't look as clear as it did earlier.... still looking solid, though.
Quoting 301. BahaHurican:

Glad this is 384 hours out....
GFS has had a storm at the end of the run since the start of the hurricane season -_-
the GFS and other mode runs where vary wrong about the Caribbean storm what make you guys think that this will come to past yes 384hrs out and it will likey get drop or it wont happen at all
GFS = CMC
Quoting 303. Gearsts:

GFS has had a storm at the end of the run since the start of the hurricane season -_-
True. However, that location hasn't been featured more than once or twicet.... lol ... if GFS is going to put a storm right over my head, I'd much, MUCH prefer it be at 384 hrs..... lol ...
Just put out my 108th blog update on the Atlantic tropics for this season...just predicted that the tropical wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands (currently showing a low pressure spin at 10N-32W) has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 72 hours after which time wind shear will hit it. IMO...still not certain on what's going to happen with the AOI NE of the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 295. BahaHurican:

Well, I like the new look. Wha'd you do... stick the phone up somewhere on timer? At least it's not another "arm's length" one iike I've seen far too often on FB...


I had my brother take it because arm's length alone isn't enough to capture the full extent of my beauty.
309. vis0
HEY KIDS LETS PLAY IMAGINE
TODAY imagine if a coke spilled on a wx MODEL run. or as the adults call it a 8+ day run...how far after 8 days?,
LISTEN once you go beyond 5 days don't ask.

at the start 1st  cyclonic SUPPOSEDLY   heading  towards  Western  Europe
2nd  SUPPOSEDLY  bombs  out  with a front over the NE coastline.
3rd  SUPPOSEDLY  Heads  towards  Tex/Mex
operative word is " ". (the blanks between each word as to what natures' winds will twist up or down or the blanks as to %#@! words left out)
and i do think there is a chance for  3 TS within 18 days but all very strong???



Quoting 307. NCHurricane2009:

Just put out my 108th blog update on the Atlantic tropics for this season...just predicted that the tropical wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands (currently showing a low pressure spin at 10N-32W) has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 72 hours after which time wind shear will hit it. IMO...still not certain on what's going to happen with the AOI NE of the Lesser Antilles.


Upper-level winds look marginal at best for the next few days for the tropical wave near the Antilles.
Quoting 304. Tazmanian:

the GFS and other mode runs where vary wrong about the Caribbean storm what make you guys think that this will come to past yes 384hrs out and it will likey get drop or it wont happen at all


dude i dont even know why ppl keep posting it tbh

Get a hint. 384 hours is fantasy.
312. vis0

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
5:30 AM IST October 9 2014
===============================

Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts.


At 0:00 AM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Hudhud over east central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward and lays centered near 13.7N 89.2E about 780 km south southeast of Gopalpur and 770 km southeast of Visakhapatnam.

The system would continue to move west northwestwards, intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours and into a very severe cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. The system would cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by the afternoon on Sunday.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low or medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over area between 10.0N to 18.0N and 83.0E to 92.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high. The central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 994 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 14.4N 88.2E - 55 to 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 15.2N 87.4E - 65 to 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 16.5N 85.8E - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 17.5N 83.5E - 70 to 75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
===================
The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19.0N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. The system is tracking west northwest in association with anti-cyclonic circulation located over northern Bay of Bengal. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity remained same during past 12 hrs. The vertical wind shear has slightly increased and is about 15-20 knots around system center. However, the upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable for further intensification of the system. The numerical weather prediction models are gradually converging and predicting the west northwestward movement of the system towards north Andhra Pradesh coast.
314. vis0
washingtonianIIV (CXV) was right compu'rs are on drugs...

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------candy corn^ m&m ^ & popcorn and 2 shooting stars
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM HUDHUD (BOB03-2014)
8:30 AM IST October 9 2014
===============================
Cyclone Alert for northern coastal Andhra Pradesh & southern Odisha coasts

At 3:00 AM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Hudhud over east central Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward and intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm and lays centered near 13.8N 89.0E about 750 km southeast of Gopalpur and east southeast of Visakhapatnam.

The system would continue to move west northwestwards, intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. The system would cross northern Andhra Pradesh coast around Visakhapatnam by the afternoon Sunday.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.5 .Associated broken low or medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over area between 10.0N to 18.0N and 83.0E to 92.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of the severe cyclonic storm is 990 hPa.

Additional Information
=======================
The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19.0N and is providing poleward outflow. The system is tracking west northwestwards in association with anti-cyclonic circulation located over north Bay of Bengal. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity remained same during past 12 hours. The vertical wind shear has slightly increased and is about 15-20 knots around system center. However, the upper level divergence coupled with warm sea surface temperatures is favorable for further intensification of the system. The numerical weather prediction models are gradually converging and predicting the west northwestward movement of the system towards northern Andhra Pradesh coast
Northern Side seems to be not as strong as earlier.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON VONGFONG (1419)
15:00 PM JST October 9 2014
===================================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Vongfong (910 hPa) located at 19.7N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Storm Force Winds
==============
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
270 NM from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 22.0N 130.1E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) South of Okinawa
48 HRS 25.1N 130.5E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) southwest of Minami Daito Island
72 HRS 28.1N 130.1E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Amami Islands waters
hello.nightowls....gfs..cyclone.guatemala
Quoting 265. Forsaken:

The timestamp on the image is 0801Z, Japan is GMT +9, 8+9=17. This image is from 5pm Tokyo time, yesterday.

My mistake.

I've just woken up at the time (I live in Asia, Malaysia to be more precise) I posted that image. I didn't really pay attention to the time stamp so I just assumed it was taken around morning.
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves
generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Another hot day ahead for west central Louisiana. I am still waiting for Fall which should have already been here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef over biscuits, scrambled eggs with cheese and peppers, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, honey ham and sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
322. JRRP
Euro develops the wave near CV
Quoting 322. JRRP:

Euro develops the wave near CV



From the San Juan NWS:
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES NORTH OF PR. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVR EATLC ALONG 25W
HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND A LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
ECMWF LIKES THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLC BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE
FVRBL FOR TC GENESIS BEYOND 7 DAYS. IT APPEARS THE ATLC HURRICANE
SEASON MAY SPAWN ONE OR TWO MORE SYSTEMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
NOT trolling. We have not had an atl basin storm in a long time. Sept was dead and now Oct is passing. I think it's over for the Atlantic. Models everywhere but nothing really happening.
Quoting 324. Autistic2:

NOT trolling. We have not had an atl basin storm in a long time. Sept was dead and now Oct is passing. I think it's over for the Atlantic. Models everywhere but nothing really happening.



This is the most active I have seen the Euro all season with not only a Atlantic system but a Caribbean system as well. Looks like a very active pattern is getting under way and we could have 2 named storms out of this.

Euro at day 10 looks active. Also the ensembles are cranking out a system near the Yucatan and sending it north.


Well we have a big mjo coming so we could get 1 or 2 more


Quoting 324. Autistic2:

NOT trolling. We have not had an atl basin storm in a long time. Sept was dead and now Oct is passing. I think it's over for the Atlantic. Models everywhere but nothing really happening.
You also have the GFS cranking out a system from a remnant front starting at day 8 and then heads toward FL.

Quoting 326. SFLWeatherman:

Well we have a big mjo coming so we could get 1 or 2 more





It appears the Euro is onboard with an active 2 weeks ahead.

I think Fay is on the way.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves
northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
From JB

IMPRESSIVE WINTER FORECAST BY THE EUROPEAN
October 8 11:13 PM


Very late and I have a talk to give tomorrow ( I am out at Notre Dame..was attacked by some leprechauns disguised as rabbits, they are all over the Campus) so some highlights of the ECMWF
The model has always been reluctant, on its site, to have below normal temps. But it has the entire US normal for the winter, with JFM significantly colder than normal in the nations midsection and colder than normal in the I-95 corridor
It is very wet looking
It has a major negative AO
The biggest factor for me, which when I compare it against last year, indicates this year has the chance for more widespread cold and snow, is the higher than normal pressures from Alaska into the northern plains.
It has more blocking over Greenland now , but still has the strongest blocking over the NW part of N America and over the pole.
Comparing it to previous years on the model site, from October this to me is saying not only is our idea of a major cold snowy winter for the US a good one, but it may have to have more widespread cold and snow further northwest than what we have had since April
The "guru" is out tomorrow, the JMA so we will see how it looks. I think it will be as cold or colder than the previous run
Ciao for now
328 thats not 8 days 325/25=13 days had me worried for a second.
Quoting Autistic2:
NOT trolling. We have not had an atl basin storm in a long time. Sept was dead and now Oct is passing. I think it's over for the Atlantic. Models everywhere but nothing really happening.


Looks like we'll get one more. Hot spot this year seems to be north of the islands and east of the US.
Quoting 331. islander101010:

328 thats not 8 days 325/25=13 days had me worried for a second.


Starts at day 8
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves
northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
invest coming soon
JB said in his the system trying to form at day 10 in the Caribbean could shoot toward FL after day 10 as potentially a named system. The system he is referring to is the one on the Euro trying to form near the Yucatan. If you live anywhere from FL to Maine be on guard the next 2 weeks as we may end this season with a bang! MJO coming into octant 2 by mid October could unload a pretty strong system so stay alert.

Quoting 333. StormTrackerScott:



Starts at day 8
thanks scott any characters nearby can join us in celebrating americana music next week in live oak florida thurs.-sun. lyle lovett is headlining magnolia music fest. last yr was insane with john prine kris kristoferson and willie nelson.



something else to watch in yellow!
Looks like we have 99L:

99L INVEST 141009 1200 20.4N 60.5W ATL 25 1007
Looked at GEOS-5 for the US, hoping to give CA drought suffers a hope... sorry, can't find any.

It's put off any storm development in the Atlantic, earliest maybe late Friday /early Saturday. The Atlantic storm has been looking more favorable for days now. Started showing a really south reaching front that destroys what ever gets going in the Caribbean.

Saturday


Tuesday
341. JRRP
330. StormTrackerScott
I'm hoping for another exciting winter.Tracking the winter storms were very fun,and since this hurricane season was boring i think the energy will be placed else where.
Invest 99L

Invest 99L
Last Updated Oct 9, 2014 12 GMT
Location 20.4 60.5W Movement NW
Wind 30 MPH
invest 99L IS HERE
Think there is potential for 1-2 more storms in the Atlantic basin. The steering patterns in place, and for what appear to be in place through late October, have me concerned.



Quoting 324. Autistic2:

NOT trolling. We have not had an atl basin storm in a long time. Sept was dead and now Oct is passing. I think it's over for the Atlantic. Models everywhere but nothing really happening.
Good Morning:

99L is here. Is Fay on the way? Maybe something more after that ...? This slow 2014 hurricane season might go out with a bang!

Some predict that the South will possibly have another icy winter. The Mobile, AL - Pensacola, FL, area had a January 2014 ice-sleet storm. Pretty, but dangerous to drive or walk on. It covered the ground in both cities! We also had some snow accumulation in many areas, especially north of the Gulf Coast cities. Hope we get powdery snowfall this winter - bring it on!
Could be enough to give me a clean chest high+ groundswell on the OBX Sat-Mon. Please...

Quoting 341. JRRP:


Good Morning..

06z update..

Quoting 348. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning:

99L is here. Is Fay on the way? Maybe something more after that ...? This slow 2014 hurricane season might go out with a bang!

Some predict that the South will possibly have another icy winter. The Mobile, AL - Pensacola, FL, area had a January 2014 ice-sleet storm. Pretty, but dangerous to drive or walk on. It covered the ground in both cities! We also had some snow accumulation in many areas, especially north of the Gulf Coast cities. Hope we get powdery snowfall this winter - bring it on!

Possibly 99L will become Fay. I found what might be future 90L interesting (the area southeast of 99L). A couple of models want to bring that area toward the northern coast of Hispaniola (Oct 14-16), then bring it up the east coast of Florida where it stalls off the coast of Jacksonville. Very slow mover could mean lots of rain for Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the east coast of Florida.
I think we'll have 2-4 more storms before the season is over. 99L looks like it will have a good chance of becoming Fay and then it looks like there's going to be a strong favourable phase of the MJO in the basin in time for the second climatological mini peak in October:



Given the forecasted strength of the MJO by the models (including the Euro which tends to be the best for MJO forecasting), I wouldn't be surprised if it lead to 1-2 systems in and around the Caribbean. Plus, we can't rule out a storm or two in November. It's happened in the past during El Nino years and could happen again this year. :)
Quoting 352. fmbill:


Possibly 99L will become Fay. I found what might be future 90L interesting (the area southeast of 99L). A couple of models want to bring that area toward the northern coast of Hispaniola (Oct 14-16), then bring it up the east coast of Florida where it stalls off the coast of Jacksonville. Very slow mover could mean lots of rain for Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the east coast of Florida.


I think someone discussed that possibility yesterday (Groth maybe?)
355. 882MB
Quoting 354. win1gamegiantsplease:



I think someone discussed that possibility yesterday (Groth maybe?)


Yes indeed, looks like a good possibility, even though the GFS has been bogus this year, for the past two runs shows a well define vorticity max, with a nice complex of heavy precipitation moving over the islands, shear will be in the moderate range, but this wave in the central Atlantic has had my curiosity for days now. And I agree I do think this will be future 90L

358. 882MB
Quoting 355. 882MB:



Yes indeed, looks like a good possibility, even though the GFS has been bogus this year, for the past two runs shows a well define vorticity max, with a nice complex of heavy precipitation moving over the islands, shear will be in the moderate range, but this wave in the central Atlantic has had my curiosity for days now. And I agree I do think this will be future 90L




Has anyone read the San Juan, Puerto Rico, forecast discussion, VERY INTESTING as I mentioned yesterday, and today. Hmmmmmm
Quoting 355. 882MB:



Yes indeed, looks like a good possibility, even though the GFS has been bogus this year, for the past two runs shows a well define vorticity max, with a nice complex of heavy precipitation moving over the islands, shear will be in the moderate range, but this wave in the central Atlantic has had my curiosity for days now. And I agree I do think this will be future 90L




Maybe if I don't pay any attention to a possible invest this time it might actually develop lol.
Here's what 882mb was mentioning, and now I will probably just wait a few days to check back on it as this season has taught us.

TRADE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT
SO EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL WX PATTERN OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVR WRN PR NEXT WEEK. NOTE THAT THE 09/00Z GFS RUN HAS
A SPURIOUS LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS PR COLUMBUS DAY. THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM GRID SCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND
THIS LOW HARDLY HAS ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SO
THIS SOLUTION IS BEING COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.


A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES NORTH OF PR. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVR EATLC ALONG 25W
HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND A LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
ECMWF LIKES THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLC BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE
FVRBL FOR TC GENESIS BEYOND 7 DAYS. IT APPEARS THE ATLC HURRICANE
SEASON MAY SPAWN ONE OR TWO MORE SYSTEMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

&&

WHY the feeder band just east of us doesn't move over us....
Quoting 353. Envoirment:

I think we'll have 2-4 more storms before the season is over. 99L looks like it will have a good chance of becoming Fay and then it looks like there's going to be a strong favourable phase of the MJO in the basin in time for the second climatological mini peak in October:



Given the forecasted strength of the MJO by the models (including the Euro which tends to be the best for MJO forecasting), I wouldn't be surprised if it lead to 1-2 systems in and around the Caribbean. Plus, we can't rule out a storm or two in November. It's happened in the past during El Nino years and could happen again this year. :)




your wishcasting i think we may see nothing for the next 1 too 2 weeks mode runs where vary worng with the Caribbean storms right now the mode runs are this playing tricks on ever one and 2 to 4 more storm not even sure where you got that idea from we will be lucky if we even see 1 more name storm


and dont get me started with the chart you guys do and its going in the fire places
The GFS has been showing a rather potent storm system forming over the Central U.S..

You know I've been watching that system for days. There is one thing that has not been mentioned. As 99L gets pulled north, there are many indications that a strong high will build to the north and could possibly push the system back west. Now mind you, this would be no Sandy, but it is looking to me more of a westward motion is possible if the high builds in.




A low caught between two highs.



Quoting 364. hydrus:

The GFS has been showing a rather potent storm system forming over the Central U.S..




Yea the KC metro area should be on the lookout
If that high builds, it could be a block force to 99L

P48L dealing with lots of dry air.

Quoting 363. Tazmanian:





your wishcasting i think we may see nothing for the next 1 too 2 weeks mode runs where vary worng with the Caribbean storms right now the mode runs are this playing tricks on ever one and 2 to 4 more storm not even sure where you got that idea from we will be lucky if we even see 1 more name storm


and dont get me started with the chart you guys do and its going in the fire places


Nothing for the next 1-2 weeks? Don't we have an invest right now?
Quoting Grothar:
If that high builds, it could be a block force to 99L



99L is going to turn and ride up that frontal boundary. It shouldn't be a threat to the U.S.
M 7.1 - Southern East Pacific Rise

PAGER - GREENShakeMap - ITsunami Warning Center
Time
2014-10-08 19:14:32 UTC-07:00
Location
32.115°S 110.779°W
Depth
15.5km
Quoting 371. luvtogolf:



Nothing for the next 1-2 weeks? Don't we have an invest right now?




i see nothing comeing out of that
i have been right for most of the season
96 hour surface map.
Shows 99L being turned off to the N.E.

Quoting 367. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yea the KC metro area should be on the lookout
The Euro, GEM, and the GFS are both showing impressive dynamics with this system. 7o kt jet, directional shear, negative tilt, dew points in the 70,s as far north as Oklahoma, and flooding concerns. If the trend continues with a deeper system, a potentially dangerous storm with all types of severe weather will take place.




THE THREE PHASES OF THE GFS

the gfs stinks

the gfs has stunk all year

hey look at what the gfs is showing
Tropical Weather Outlook Text
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves
northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

Quoting 367. win1gamegiantsplease:



Yea the KC metro area should be on the lookout

Wow!! I was TOTALLY thinking about you. Guess what? Did you hear?? The Giants advance to the next round -- the NLCS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
VongFong

Super Typhoon Vongfong

Super Typhoon Vongfong
Last Updated Oct 9, 2014 12 GMT
Location 20.3N 129.5E Movement NNW
Wind 150 MPH
Quoting 365. Grothar:

You know I've been watching that system for days. There is one thing that has not been mentioned. As 99L gets pulled north, there are many indications that a strong high will build to the north and could possibly push the system back west. Now mind you, this would be no Sandy, but it is looking to me more of a westward motion is possible if the high builds in.




A low caught between two highs.






That's what the Euro shows - it takes a turn west/northwest, then heads northwest into the Northeast US/Canada:





Quoting 378. ricderr:

THE THREE PHASES OF THE GFS

the gfs stinks

the gfs has stunk all year

hey look at what the gfs is showing

REVISION:

1) The GFS Sucks

2) The GFS has sucked all year

3) Hey look at what the GFS is showing

4) Time to ignore the GFS

5) In hindsight, maybe we are all just mad at the GFS because none of the gloom and doom scenarios that we are licking our chops over never came true :)
Quoting 373. WaterWitch11:

M 7.1 - Southern East Pacific Rise

PAGER - GREENShakeMap - ITsunami Warning Center
Time
2014-10-08 19:14:32 UTC-07:00
Location
32.115°S 110.779°W
Depth
15.5km


000
WEPA42 PHEB 090451
TIBPAC

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0442 UTC THU OCT 9 2014

...PTWC TSUNAMI SUPPLEMENT STATEMENT...


**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

NOTE THAT PREVIOUS BULLETIN NO. 4 SHOULD HAVE BEEN NO. 2.

THIS STATEMENT IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

* MAGNITUDE 7.2
* ORIGIN TIME 0215 UTC OCT 9 2014
* COORDINATES 32.1 SOUTH 111.0 WEST
* DEPTH 10 KM / 6 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE


EVALUATION
----------

* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.2 OCCURRED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE AT 0215 UTC ON THURSDAY
OCTOBER 9 2014.

* A TSUNAMI WAVE AMPLITUDE OF 0.47M AT EASTER ISLAND/ISLA DE PASCUA
WAS REPORTED BY THE CHILEAN NAVY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

* PERSONS ALONG COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE SHOULD BE
OBSERVANT AND EXERCISE NORMAL CAUTION. OTHERWISE... NO ACTION
IS REQUIRED.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
----------------

NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

* THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
NEW INFORMATION IS RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.

* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-.

* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

* COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S. NATIONAL
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

$$
Nothing going on in the GOM or Caribbean. The Low that was in the southern Caribbean is now on the coast in the EPAC.
Quoting 381. CumberlandPlateau:


Wow!! I was TOTALLY thinking about you. Guess what? Did you hear?? The Giants advance to the next round -- the NLCS!!!!!!!!!!!!!


That's awesome! Except I don't give a damn about baseball lol. All I care about the next couple weeks of October are beating the eagles and boys.

Edit: seeing a named system or two would also be nice

AFN Okinawa
about an hour ago


We're closing up shop for a few hours folks, but we wanted to get one last post in before calling it a night.

We remain in TCCOR 3 under the direction of the 18th Wing Commander. First thing tomorrow assess your situation; ensure you have enough food and water to sustain during and after the storm, put fuel in your vehicles, calmly make a commissary run, clean up your yard, secure outside materials, help your neighbor and follow the direction of the 18th Wing officials.

We'll update you before, during and after the storm, you can catch us here on FB, on Wave 89.1FM, Surf 648 AM, on the AFN Pacific Mobile App for Apple and Android, even on internet radio at www.AFNPacific.net. So there's no excuse to not know what's going on.

Share this FB Page so your friends and neighbors know what's going on and you don't end up having to clean up their mess in your yard.

Okinawa is built for these kind of storms and with proper preventative measures we'll get through this with minimal damage.

--GySgt Griffin
Quoting 202. Sfloridacat5:

18Z GFS at 120 hours
Not much to talk about. Low in the EPAC not doing too much yet. Nothing in the Caribbean and the Atlantic system is all but gone.




Which is a GOOD thing
99L Floater up:

Hey, Look, the GFS has a 996 mb low going ashore near the Cape..:)

Quoting 393. Envoirment:

99L Floater up:




Quoting 394. hydrus:

Hey, Look, the GFS has a 996 mb low going ashore near the Cape..




"Gee"
Quoting 394. hydrus:

Hey, Look, the GFS has a 996 mb low going ashore near the Cape..




It develops it from the good looking wave that came off Africa yesterday and develops it into a tropical storm before moving towards Florida. The CMC also develops it (rather agressive as usual) and the Euro shows it as a closed low (possible TD), but for nothing more now:







It'll be something to watch over the next few days.
5) In hindsight, maybe we are all just mad at the GFS because none of the gloom and doom scenarios that we are licking our chops over never came true :)


very true....it's like when the nascar driver starts to spin and straightens it out...i think many who visit this room would be disappointed
Reid Wiseman @astro_reid
#SuperTyphoon #Vongfang – I’ve seen many from here, but none like this.



Beautiful
400. josF
Thank you,Dr. Masters.



invest 99L!!
Reid Wiseman @astro_reid
#SuperTyphoon #Vongfang – I’ve seen many from here, but none like this.



it's enormous....about 1200 miles square
403. JRRP
Quoting 244. SLU:

Thumbs down! The slowest season in 3 decades.




This is a GREAT thing, why are people here so pissed off that this year was slow....I just don't get it.
Quoting 406. pmzqqzmp:



This is a GREAT thing, why are people here so pissed off that this year was slow....I just don't get it.


Because some people (wishcasters) on here want to get hit with a hurricane. That's why.
Wow Haiyan's satellite presentation is amazing.
Quoting 406. pmzqqzmp:



This is a GREAT thing, why are people here so pissed off that this year was slow....I just don't get it.
No disappointment here...I said ages ago how I enjoy watching a potentially dangerous wave/storm choke to death on dry air and dust, or get whacked with shear before becoming a deadly nightmare..I do believe that we are not finished with hurricane season , and likely will have something to watch before its over.
410. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


From the San Juan NWS:
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO DEVELOPING
LOW PRES NORTH OF PR. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVR EATLC ALONG 25W
HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND A LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
ECMWF LIKES THIS WAVE FOR POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONS IN THE ATLC BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE
FVRBL FOR TC GENESIS BEYOND 7 DAYS. IT APPEARS THE ATLC HURRICANE
SEASON MAY SPAWN ONE OR TWO MORE SYSTEMS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

Favorable CCKW
Juan 85', a Halloween Hurricane, was a flooder




The Cloud shield went all the way up to Chicago



Atlantic season in one word ... B~O~R~I~N~G !


... this image should scare the CRAP out of anyone in it's way ... talk about intense!
Quoting 396. Patrap:



"Gee"
Good morning Pat...Trying to get a laugh today with my long range find.
Quoting 406. pmzqqzmp:



This is a GREAT thing, why are people here so pissed off that this year was slow....I just don't get it.

Absolutely correct pmz... I love it...No injuries, no deaths, no property damage....I love it
morn...

we want fall back,..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
YongFong VIZ to night IR loop

Beautiful day here in swFL!

Quoting 406. pmzqqzmp:



This is a GREAT thing, why are people here so pissed off that this year was slow....I just don't get it.


Wishcasters. 'Nuff said.
I think 90l is! a tropical storm....with out a doubt