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Typhoon Phanfone Aims at Tokyo; Typhoon Vongfong Belting Guam

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:38 PM GMT on October 05, 2014

Typhoon Phanfone is weakening as is races northeastward towards the main Japanese island of Kyushu. Japanese radar showed that heavy rains from Phanfone were affecting most of the main Japanese islands of Kyushu and Honshu on Sunday morning, and satellite loops showed that Phanfone remained intact in the face of wind shear in excess of 30 knots, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. Phanfone will make its closest pass by Tokyo near 01 UTC Monday (9 pm EDT Sunday.) High wind shear and cooler waters will continue to weaken Phanfone, and it should be no stronger than a Category 1 storm at its point of closest approach to Tokyo. Heavy rains from Phanfone are the main threat, and are likely to bring dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

According to TWC's Nick Wiltgen, Tokyo has a pretty high threshold for record rainfall. In data going back to 1886, the top ten one-hour rainfalls are all at least 69.2 mm (2.72 inches), and the calendar-day rainfall record rainfall since 1875 is 371.9 mm (14.64 inches). The top sustained wind on record since 1875 is 31.0 m/s or 69.3 mph, and a mere 22.6 m/s (50.6 mph) wind from Phanfone would give Tokyo an all-time top-10 sustained wind. The highest wind gust on record for central Tokyo is 46.7 m/s (104.5 mph) which, like the sustained wind record, was set September 1, 1938.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Phanfone taken at 22:15 JST (9:15 am EDT) Sunday, October 5, 2014 from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Typhoon warnings in Guam for Category 2 Vongfong
Typhoon warnings are flying for the U.S. Northern Mariana islands of Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian as intensifying Category 2 Typhoon Vongfong plows west-northwest at 24 mph through the islands. The island of Rota, about 25 miles north of Guam, is expected to receive the worst beating. The eye of Vongfong is on track to pass just to the north of Rota, as seen on radar out of Guam. The NWS is warning that Rota could see sustained winds of 90 - 110 mph, which will cause extensive damage. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet and rains of 5 - 8 inches are also expected. As of 9 am EDT Sunday (11 pm local time), winds had begun to rise sharply at Andersen AFB on the north end of Guam, with a peak gust of 33 mph. The typhoon is expected to turn more to the northwest later in the week, and could be a threat to Japan in 6 - 8 days.


Figure 2. Radar out of Guam of Typhoon Vongfong, taken at 9:29 am EDT Sunday. The radar cannot "see" all of Rota due to blockage of the radar beam by mountains.

Simon says: I'm a major hurricane!
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Simon put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification Saturday, topping out as a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds at 11 pm EDT Saturday. Simon is the eighth intense hurricane so far in the Eastern Pacific (east of 140°W), putting this year in a tie with 1992 for the highest number of of major hurricanes in one season. The 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season tally now stands at 18 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees just 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with two of those named storms and one hurricane occurring after October 10. Simon is expected to recurve to the northeast, and bring rains of 2 - 4" to the central coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula as it dissipates near landfall on Tuesday. Deep moisture from Simon will flow northeastward across Mainland Mexico and into the Southwest U.S. this week, and the 00Z Sunday runs of the GFS and European models are in agreement that heavy rainfall from Simon's moisture will begin to affect the Southwest U.S. on Wednesday.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Simon taken at approximately 6 pm EDT October 4, 2014. At the time, Simon was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds and was undergoing rapid intensification that would take it to a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds by 11 pm EDT. Image credit: NASA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing over the next five days in the Atlantic, though the GFS model predicts the waters in the Southwest Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica could spawn a large area of low pressure capable of developing into a tropical depression next weekend.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

am not sure if the Deadliest Catch is this a TV show or if it is a real thing but what ever it is the Fleet is about too get hit by TYPHOON PHANFONE wounder what seas will be like for them i think they are now this getting in too Opilio season or King Crab season
502. JRRP
east of Antilles will have better environment than WCarib
Quoting 402. hurricanewatcher61:

Looks like a totally right sided storm.

Yayy! This is Just what this season was lacking! A lopsided disorganized mess of sheared convection with a closed circulation off to the west. Now we can continue the streak of ugly lopsided storms going into Florida. Debby 2012, Andrea 2013, and now we complete the season with a cherry on top. Perfect!
Can't wait!

The Eastern Pacific is now my favorite basin.
Quoting 502. JRRP:

east of Antilles will have better environment than WCarib



Mother Nature... PLEASE :-) Give us a nice slow moving TS...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #58
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
12.00 PM JST October 6 2014
===================================
40 KM South Southeast of Mito [Ibaraki Prefecture]

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (975 hPa) located at 36.1N 140.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 38 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center in the southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
325 NM from the center in west quadrant
270 NM from the center in east quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 40.8N 159.0E - Extratropical Low In Sea Far East Of Japan
Quoting 495. beell:



My wife is an AP English teacher. She's had quite an effect on me (noun).

My father-in-law is a Marine officer, same effect
Other than the stale Atlantic, the Pacific has amused me with the western Pacific producing two typhoons with the most ridiculous names ever (Phanfone and Vongfong, just lol) and Simon, the 18th named storm in the Eastern Pacific (wow).
I saw that the NHC had a little fun with Simon yesterday.
00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida
Quoting 508. hurricane23:

00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida
Fujiwhara now that would end the season with a bang!
Quoting 508. hurricane23:

00z GFS has a strong hurricane moving over keys and clips southern florida


yawn
Wow, the GFS has had some crazy runs in the last 36 hours or so... but that was just over the top. lol
512. Siker
Quoting KoritheMan:


yawn


Tell that trough to be several days faster or slower.


I wish the GEM was reliable, so I could get excited for this
Oh my god. It is spelled Phanfone, people. I'm sorry, I am just extremely irritable about that sort of thing. Sort of like when people called Edouard "Edward" and Cristina "Christine."
Quoting 514. Stormlover16:

Oh my god. It is spelled Phanfone, people. I'm sorry, I am just extremely irritable about that sort of thing. Sort of like when people called Edouard "Edward" and Cristina "Christine."


Or Fay as Faye.
Quoting 512. Siker:



Tell that trough to be several days faster or slower.


I was yawning at the prospect of a Gulf storm of ANY sort, actually.

**** this season. I give up.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #58A
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
13.00 PM JST October 6 2014
===================================
100 KM East of Hitachi [Ibaraki Prefecture]

At 4:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (975 hPa) located at 36.6N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 40 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center in the southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
325 NM from the center in west quadrant
270 NM from the center in east quadrant
Quoting 515. KoritheMan:



Or Fay as Faye.

or Cristobal as Christobal.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #58B
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
14.00 PM JST October 6 2014
===================================
150 KM East of Iwaki [Fukushima Prefecture]

At 5:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (975 hPa) located at 37.1N 142.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 42 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
350 NM from the center in west quadrant
300 NM from the center in east quadrant


IMD model maps for Andaman Island region of the northern Indian Ocean


Thailand Meteorological Department models
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 6 2014
======================================

Under the influence of yesterday's cyclonic circulation over Gulf of Siam, a low pressure area has formed over Tenasserim coast and adjoining Andaman Sea.

It would concentrate into a depression during the next 24 hours

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=============================
Now: LOW
24-48 HRS: MODERATE
48-72 HRS: HIGH
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
15:00 PM JST October 6 2014
===================================
210 KM East Southeast of Ishinomaki [Miyagi Prefecture]

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (975 hPa) located at 37.7N 143.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 46 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
350 NM from the center in west quadrant
300 NM from the center in east quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 40.8N 162.8E - Extratropical Low In Sea Far East Of Japan
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON VONGFONG (1419)
15:00 PM JST October 6 2014
===================================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Vongfong (970 hPa) located at 15.8N 141.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 22 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 17.0N 135.0E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS 17.8N 131.7E - 85 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS 18.9N 130.8E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea East Of The Philippines
525. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA presented via U of Wash.
SUBJECT:: watching 2 areas where TSgenesis might form.


...meanwhile Wxu members in FL. popping corn...wash115 figured make 1 big one, nibble as needed.
Short Monday morning hello with stormy low "Katrin" hitting the British Islets and a very strong MCS in the Ionian Sea south of Italy (no "Medicane" though as has been discussed some days ago).






Saved loop. Click for updates.

Have a nice start into the week!
Im beginning to think this GFS storm is bogus..its back sliding timewise..........................
528. JRRP


European is likely correct hard to go against anything in the e-pac this yr.
Quoting 514. Stormlover16:

Oh my god. It is spelled Phanfone, people. I'm sorry, I am just extremely irritable about that sort of thing. Sort of like when people called Edouard "Edward" and Cristina "Christine."


You may have a touch of "CDO". It's a lot like "OCD" only in order, the way it's supposed to be.
Quoting 529. hurricane23:

European is likely correct hard to go against anything in the e-pac this yr.


Agreed, Adrian.
Quoting BahaHurican:
The biggest laugh for me is the spelling of "effect" as "affect". I have a hard time giving huge amounts of credence to either scientists or writers who are making this mistake and posting it on the WWW like it is correct.

I suppose it's arrogant of me, but I always feel like I'm being dissed when somebody supposedly erudite, someone I'm supposedly trusting with big decisions, doesn't even have the common courtesy to spell check their writing before publishing it - like they think I'm too dumb / stupid / sheep-like to notice their small mistakes. I also wonder - you can't spell basic words but you want me to trust you accuracy in other painstaking kinds of endeavors???
But that's just me.


"Ultimately people are finding out that C02 actually rises and decreases depending on the temperature being up or down... it REACTS to the TEMPERATURE, it DOESN'T AFFECT the temperature."

AFFECT - verb (used with object - TEMPERATURE)

1. to act on; produce an effect or change in:
Cold weather affected the temperature.

...and people here believed your diatribe about such a trivial thing as this...without even checking for themselves.

*shrugs* - Such is the nature of the warmists, I guess.


534. JRRP
99B:







The CMC & GFS have amazing consensus with one another. It's certainly becoming well defined at the 850mb level:



It's under some moderate-high shear at the southern portion of the system, but that should decrease as it heads north westward:



And SSTs are widely 30-32C ahead of the system:



I wouldn't be surprised if it put on a burst of rapid intensification and became a category 5 system - much like Phailin.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. Looks like a soggy day with a possibility of some severe weather later today in west central Louisiana.

My prayers to the two airmen missing in Japan, and the one found who didn't make it.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
The time line is shrinking.

I've been keeping track of when the system enters the GOM.
It's gone from 300 hours to 204 hours in the past 3 days.

06Z GFS at 204 hours - system entering the GOM

Quoting 537. Sfloridacat5:

The time line is shrinking.

I've been keeping track of when the system enters the GOM.
It's gone from 300 hours to 204 hours in the past 3 days.

06Z GFS at 204 hours - system entering the GOM




Yes it has. While there are some crazy track differences the GFS has remained consistent with development. I would not dismiss it simply because other models do not show the same thing that is silly. The GFS doesn't create systems in the 5-7 day range typically.
Got a feeling Tampa going to get whacked by this GFS storm
Quoting CycloneOz:


"Ultimately people are finding out that C02 actually rises and decreases depending on the temperature being up or down... it REACTS to the TEMPERATURE, it DOESN'T AFFECT the temperature."

AFFECT - verb (used with object - TEMPERATURE)

1. to act on; produce an effect or change in:
Cold weather affected the temperature.

...and people here believed your diatribe about such a trivial thing as this...without even checking for themselves.

*shrugs* - Such is the nature of the warmists, I guess.




Using effect and affect correctly are common mistakes with students and people in general.


Quoting 527. LargoFl:

Im beginning to think this GFS storm is bogus..its back sliding timewise..........................

That is because of the track it is taking Largo, not actual development. Development is still by this weekend.
Quoting 535. Envoirment:

99B:







The CMC & GFS have amazing consensus with one another. It's certainly becoming well defined at the 850mb level:



It's under some moderate-high shear at the southern portion of the system, but that should decrease as it heads north westward:



And SSTs are widely 30-32C ahead of the system:



I wouldn't be surprised if it put on a burst of rapid intensification and became a category 5 system - much like Phailin.


I am like you very interested on this system that could be a big one for that area especially if it goes to Bangladesh.
Quoting 541. sporteguy03:


That is because of the track it is taking Largo, not actual development. Development is still by this weekend.
ok gotta watch this one carefully huh


SYNOPSIS 2014100400

P41L
11N, 65W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Tiny OW max (one of several) gradually consolidates into one pouch in the southwestern Caribbean that crosses Central America. Tracking due westward, which is farther south than the previous forecast. Max OW of 2x10-9 s-2 occurs at 84 hours, which is before landfall.

GFS: A bit erratic, especially around 48 hours, but then P41L spins up, with OW reaching almost 3x10-9 s-2 at 96 hours near landfall.

UKMET: Similar to the other models, except UKMET continues to develop P41L after entering Eastpac, with OW increasing to over 7x10-9 s-2 by 120 hours.

NAVGEM: Continues to be a north outlier! Except for at 12 hours when P41L is entering the SoCarib gyre area, P41L is a distinct pouch that tracks to the northwest and intensifies, especially on Day 5. OW reaches over 7x10-9 s-2 at 120 hours when north of Honduras.

HWRF-GEN: Similar to the other non-NAVGEM models but with more OW maxima in the vicinity; pouch center is often depicted between a western and eastern OW maximum. Consolidates as it enters the Eastpac at 120 hours, with OW reaching 12x10-9 s-2.


ECMWF -5.2 0.0 v700 120h
GFS -5.6 0.0 v700 120h
UKMET -5.5 -0.3 v700 120h
NAVGEM -5.0 1.5 v700 120h
HWGEN -5.5 0.1 v700 120h

Quoting 539. mcluvincane:

Got a feeling Tampa going to get whacked by this GFS storm
Just about every run of the GFS has us in its sights..we'll see how it is say friday or saturday,plenty of time to watch this...and maybe prepare huh.
looks to be a possiblity of two storms..one in the GOM and one curving near Bermuda..

00z UKMET showing the one near Bermuda

Quoting 543. LargoFl:

ok gotta watch this one carefully huh
'
I would, if it is wrong it is wrong. The GFS is one of our best models based on proven history through many years. Sure it can be wrong so can the ECMWF. To simply dismiss it would be foolish so watch what happens.
We "could" have a tropical storm entering the GOM around the beginning of next week.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Using effect and affect correctly are common mistakes with students and people in general.




Agreed. Using affect or effect takes a bit of skill. So why did Baha not recognize that I had? Why did Baha, (who was the one in error...not me,) use it to attack my point?
00z Euro operational is showing neither storm but is showing an east coast rider but inland..last two frames so plenty time to watch to if develops and if track over land/water..



I do believe no one in Florida is thinking a storm is coming ............................
Quoting 533. CycloneOz:



"Ultimately people are finding out that C02 actually rises and decreases depending on the temperature being up or down... it REACTS to the TEMPERATURE, it DOESN'T AFFECT the temperature."

AFFECT - verb (used with object - TEMPERATURE)

1. to act on; produce an effect or change in:
Cold weather affected the temperature.

...and people here believed your diatribe about such a trivial thing as this...without even checking for themselves.

*shrugs* - Such is the nature of the warmists, I guess.





What evidence do you have that carbon dioxide is not a greenhouse gas? Are you assuming that it cannot both affect temperature and react to temperature? (When one thing both affects and reacts to another, it is called a "feedback".) It has been proven that carbon dioxide is in fact a greenhouse gas.
well just about every run of the GFS has from tampa northward as the coming inland point for this storm,we'll see in a week if this changes..plenty of time for things to change and new data inputed into the model.
WHOA....just read this on one of my model sites........................................Atten tion User:

Update (10/5/2014): We will be removing the UKMET from our model selection menu beginning the week of October 5th, 2014. The UKMET has been discontinued via NOAAport and there are no plans to support its dissemination. We are investigating the addition of various other models to add to our menu.

Here's the NHC's early thoughts. Not surprisingly, they're leaning towards East Pacific development, if anything forms at all.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia,
Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form around the middle part of this
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development
of this system after that time while it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
cyclone yes big deal? not yet id say florida straits
There is a chance of the literally dozens of spurious TCs the GFS has forecast this year, once won't be spurious and verify, and then 5 months of being worthless will be forgotten by most in a day. (And law of averages says someday a Canadian Miami or North Carolina Cat 4 will verify, maybe not this year, maybe not next year, but when it does, people will be sing the praises of the CMC.)

Be nice to get Florida off the 9 year snide.



gordon back in 94 was weak and feeble when he was southwest of florida. yet his banding thunderstorms were fatal .
Model this and that. The NHC does not appear to be impressed with any of it. The problem with a late OCT storm is they tend to not be a fish at all. Would love an atl basin storm to watch but not at the price of a strong landfall.

Having been through three storms (two on a USCG Cutter) I do not wish that on most people. I did know one senior chief that thought it was great. He was a little different....... We always said AS A MATTER OF POLICY (YOU HAVE TO GO OUT BUT YOU DON'T HAVE TO COME BACK)

Off to work, check in latter.

562. beell
Quoting 533. CycloneOz:



"Ultimately people are finding out that C02 actually rises and decreases depending on the temperature being up or down... it REACTS to the TEMPERATURE, it DOESN'T AFFECT the temperature."

AFFECT - verb (used with object - TEMPERATURE)

1. to act on; produce an effect or change in:
Cold weather affected the temperature.

...and people here believed your diatribe about such a trivial thing as this...without even checking for themselves.

*shrugs* - Such is the nature of the warmists, I guess.





So you counter with your own diatribe? How affective!
The Y storm for this East Pacific naming list is Yolanda, which was the name the Philippine weather service assigned to Haiyan last year, FWIW.
Quoting 557. MAweatherboy1:

Here's the NHC's early thoughts. Not surprisingly, they're leaning towards East Pacific development, if anything forms at all.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia,
Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form around the middle part of this
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development
of this system after that time while it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
ok so they are noticing it also...
Quoting 559. EdMahmoud:

There is a chance of the literally dozens of spurious TCs the GFS has forecast this year, once won't be spurious and verify, and then 5 months of being worthless will be forgotten by most in a day. (And law of averages says someday a Canadian Miami or North Carolina Cat 4 will verify, maybe not this year, maybe not next year, but when it does, people will be sing the praises of the CMC.)

Be nice to get Florida off the 9 year snide.






Gotta love all the people here who cheer for destruction and death. Way to go buddy!
Quoting 442. CycloneOz:

Where's the global warming?' Expert says public are growing skeptical of climate change

THE PUBLIC are becoming ever more skeptical of climate change as they begin to ask 'where is the global warming we were promised?', a leading scientist has claimed.

This week saw the 18th anniversary since the Earth's temperature last rose - something that Dr Benny Peiser, from the Global Warming Policy Forum, says experts are struggling to understand.

[snip]

Dear, me. Peiser is a social anthropologist, not a climate scientist, so referring to him in an article about climate change as "a leading expert on global warming", or as "a leading scientist" without noting that he's had absolutely no formal training in climatology, is clearly deceptive, and a move intended to fool the undiscriminating reader.

Sadly, it appears to have worked.

Anyway, that article repeats (several times) the tired lie that global temps have not risen in x number of years. Here's some artwork for both the factually challenged Peiser and those who revere him as a fount of intellectual honesty:

Quoting 565. tampabaymatt:



Gotta love all the people here who cheer for destruction and death. Way to go buddy!
yes i seriously doubt one person that lives in Florida wants to see a bad and destructive storm hit florida..all who want this storm, dont live in a threatened area.
Quoting 565. tampabaymatt:



Gotta love all the people here who cheer for destruction and death. Way to go buddy!


Nobody forces you to read this forum, buddy. Start your own Sunny and Mild appreciation forum on the web.
Quoting 568. LargoFl:

yes i seriously doubt one person that lives in Florida wants to see a bad and destructive storm hit florida..all who want this storm, dont live in a threatened area.


Texas had 2 hurricanes in 2008. Florida has had none since 2005. And climatologically, Florida is the hurricane magnet of the United States. Nothing personal, I lived in the 32813 for a year.

Price you pay for not having to worry about Winter frosts and the backyard citrus. I lost a lime tree in 2009.


Errata
Lemon tree
Quoting 569. EdMahmoud:



Nobody forces you to read this forum, buddy. Start your own Sunny and Mild appreciation forum on the web.


I'm not sure where you live, but wherever it is, if you ever experienced going through a hurricane, you wouldn't be writing ignorant nonsense like you did below. It's one thing to appreciate the science behind tropical cyclone formation, but to specifically write that it would be nice for FL to get hit by a hurricane is just disgusting. You should be ashamed of yourself.
GFS shows a potential for a system entering the Gulf early next week. Hard to trust this model given its track record lately.



Either way the CPC folks are expecting things to turn very wet across the eastern US next week regardless if we have a system or not.

Watching the destroyers go submarine from the carrier during Typhoon Skip was interesting. And it is rare people get sea sick on a carrier. Knocked a whole in the hull in the foc'sle .

Good times.

And they weren't trying to punch the eyewall or anything in a multi-billion dollar ship. This was on the edge of the typhoon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Pacific_typhoon _season#Typhoon_Skip_.28Yoning.29


Errata 'Whole' = hole.
Good morning guys

06Z GFS Mon morn

From 300+hrs few days ago to where it is now

Well it certainly is coming down the time line















The 00z Euro Ensembles do show a low crossing into the BOC before making landfall in Mexico..most keep it there instead of pulling it north..
Quoting 571. tampabaymatt:



I'm not sure where you live, but wherever it is, if you ever experienced going through a hurricane, you wouldn't be writing ignorant nonsense like you did below. It's one thing to appreciate the science behind tropical cyclone formation, but to specifically write that it would be nice for FL to get hit by a hurricane is just disgusting. You should be ashamed of yourself.


What makes you think I haven't experienced sustained 80-90 mph winds IMBY inland from a high end Cat 2 on the coast in 2008 and didn't spend a week sweating on my sheets and having running water? And I'm not wishing it on my neighborhood.
take it easy on our character ed i find nothing wrong in the characters post. just wishcasting.
Well this is going Up and Up





Highest for the season

Good morning,

It will be interesting if something starts firing up in the W Caribbean this weekend. If the GFS plays out, wonder just how strong it will get, and where will it go?

Will we get another "Floyd" (Oct 1987), or "Gladys" (Oct 1968)? Or ... will it be something more?

If it actually happens, it is not surprising at all. Climatology supports T. C. formation in that area, happening in October.
580. MahFL
Quoting 527. LargoFl:

Im beginning to think this GFS storm is bogus..its back sliding timewise..........................


It's 2014, it's bound to be bogus.
572. StormTrackerScott

This is why CWG didn't by those early precipitation maps that the CPC was showing.
Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia,
Mexico.

1. An area of low pressure could form around the middle part of this
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development
of this system after that time while it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 577. islander101010:

take it easy on our character ed i find nothing wrong in the characters post. just wishcasting.


Yeah, I never wishcast the really bad stuff IMBY. Rushing to but batteries and bottle water, finding gas stations that still have gas, boarding windows, no AC and television for days. no potable water. My wife's Aunt lost her AC/heat to a hole in the roof and didn't get it fixed well into Autumn, when heat would be a good thing (we have all four seasons, the heater runs about 4 months off and on) and my wife's Grandparents vacation place on Galveston was destroyed.

Oh, for certain, I'm not one of those "I want to see the Sun in the eye of a Cat 5 hurricane" types, since you'd be looking up where the roof used to be.

And I can want/not want a Tampa Bay hurricane, and it'll happen or won't happen either way, no matter what I wish for. And even with Matt living there, I don't really want to see Tampa badly damaged.

I liked Florida, ABC Country and ABC Rock, the OBT, an I don't know where it is, but I had a Ron Jon t-shirt.

I was just noting someday the blind GFS squirrel will find the nut. And I have no magical control over whether storms hit Florida or not. Dick Cheney took back the weather control machine a few years ago.
584. MahFL
Quoting 552. LargoFl:

I do believe no one in Florida is thinking a storm is coming ............................


If a storm does come , it's likely more people than normal won't take it seriously.
Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia,
Mexico.

1. An area of low pressure could form around the middle part of this
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development
of this system after that time while it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Quoting 580. MahFL:



It's 2014, it's bound to be bogus.
I dont know, now NWS is putting it at a 20% chance of formation so we have time yet to see what happens..im hoping it IS false..or else alot of us living in Florida will be in great danger from it.
Ok so Wenesday after next we'll see what happens........................................... .....

From CWG
Quoting washingtonian115:

From CWG

Cactus Scare bus

Otherwise known as US Airways Airbus aircraft

Cactus is US Air call sign

Now make a guess why people especially in aviation call Airbus Scarebus
#589 you have been flagged
Quoting 591. wunderkidcayman:

#589 you have been flagged


Why? Just having a little humor. Why you so uptight?
there is a storm coming soon wait watch see
594. JRRP
watching the wave near 35w
Link
Quoting 592. mcluvincane:



Why? Just having a little humor. Why you so uptight?
I have to be honest when I first started reading I was thinking is this real so I had to check NHC outlook you should take it down or edit it with a comment at the top of it that its non official outlook as to not cause confusion



i see two tropical storms here
further more I don't think NHC likes stuff copied in an official looking format of there write ups either for that matter
20% here
Great post, Cyclone Oz. I noticed that myself. Even the NOAA and other agencies proclaiming the AGW is in full force are backing down a bit from earlier predictions.
Quoting 571. tampabaymatt:



I'm not sure where you live, but wherever it is, if you ever experienced going through a hurricane, you wouldn't be writing ignorant nonsense like you did below. It's one thing to appreciate the science behind tropical cyclone formation, but to specifically write that it would be nice for FL to get hit by a hurricane is just disgusting. You should be ashamed of yourself.

It happens on here all the time. Very sad. Really.

Very sad.
From TWC
Quoting 601. CumberlandPlateau:

Great post, Cyclone Oz. I noticed that myself. Even the NOAA and other agencies proclaiming the AGW is in full force are backing down a bit from earlier predictions.
that's because mom nature is tryin to balance things out so she throws in a loop or two from time to time but don't be confused its real and its happening

only problem is we really don't have a clue what mom is doing or going to do this is a see how it goes as we move along approach
Good Morning

Interesting to note that even the non tropical model NAM has a low down in the southern Carib.

Quotingmcluvincane:
blockquote>

Why? Just having a little humor. Why you so uptight?



Not really the time for humour

And when you do that people lose trust in the NHC and at Wunderground I'm sure that is the opposite message WU want to promote

And if you do do that atleast have the decency of putting a disclaimer or something and stating it was a joke
And if you do it write it properly so NHC don't look like a fool

Because
#1 atlantic is not W of 140W
#2 NHC does not issue advisory for future systems they do outlooks
#3 wording in the TWO segment is utter nonsense
#4 the percentages don't go past 100
Quoting 593. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is a storm coming soon wait watch see


Tend to agree.
FIM8

FIM9

FIM7
Quoting 533. CycloneOz:



"Ultimately people are finding out that C02 actually rises and decreases depending on the temperature being up or down... it REACTS to the TEMPERATURE, it DOESN'T AFFECT the temperature."


This just in. Random blog poster's comment has suddenly altered known physics. CO2 lasers and insulators have suddenly began failing all over the world. Spectrographic equipment now shows pictures of "Hello Kitty". Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria.

It's impossible to take anything you say seriously when you deny fundamental physics and chemistry that have been established for more than a century. Saying that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas is like saying humans don't need oxygen to live.
Quoting 607. wunderkidcayman:



Ok
Quoting 596. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I have to be honest when I first started reading I was thinking is this real so I had to check NHC outlook you should take it down or edit it with a comment at the top of it that its non official outlook as to not cause confusion




hes not going to re move post 589 you may have to do it and a banned for 1hr
Quoting 613. Tazmanian:




hes not going to re move post 589 you may have to do it and a banned for 1hr
don't tell me what to do taz
Quoting 556. LargoFl:




GFS keeps it going east across FL and leaving the Carolinas alone for the 60th anniversary of Hazel. Still something to eye since several storms that cut through FL have made their way up here.




Well I guess that 1000years ago we had a lot of industries and cars burning tons of fossil fuel!!!
NAM HIRES WRNATL
Well I guess that 1000years ago we had a lot of industries and cars burning tons of fossil fuel!!!



Quoting 618. Tazmanian:






your in a bad mood this AM did you have any coffice this AM? you better go have some or take a nic long break from the blogs and come back later when you are not in a bad mood what ever gos on at your home you do not need too bring your bad moods here and get down on the blogers has they done nothing wrong


and i was not telling you what to do you like jumping the gune over nothing


actually I took a break and just come back for the end of the season finale
Quoting 601. CumberlandPlateau:

Great post, Cyclone Oz. I noticed that myself. Even the NOAA and other agencies proclaiming the AGW is in full force are backing down a bit from earlier predictions.

Some forecasts have been refined thanks to better modeling and understanding, but scientists are still very clear: global warming is occurring and humans, through the emission of CO2, are the main cause.

Otherwise, CycloneOz's post is riddled with misinformation that has been addressed by other bloggers already. It most certainly wasn't a good post.
Hi all, there is a reason I built my house to with stand a cat 5. I live in Southeast Dade County in Florida, and on a yearly basis we are usually threaten by a hurricane or two, this is part of living in a warm sub tropical climate which I really enjoy as Wash 115 and all you other snow lovers who want large amounts of snow every year enjoy it. Large major hurricanes are part of living in South Florida, you just need to be prepared and ready for them. They do help with trash removal form our local reefs and shorelines. Has anyone ever been diving on a reef a few months after a storm it amazing at all the new life and how pristine the reefs look. I will take these storms over any other form of natural disasters as I have a few days to prepare for them.
Morning all, the GFS refuses to back down with TC genesis in the SW Caribbean.

NAM HIRES WRNATL
hr 84


Quoting 601. CumberlandPlateau:

Great post, Cyclone Oz. I noticed that myself. Even the NOAA and other agencies proclaiming the AGW is in full force are backing down a bit from earlier predictions.


No, not true at all. Another unsourced, uninformed comment being purposely deceptive. At what point does lying about the official stances of NOAA and other agencies regarding factual science become malicious?
Quoting Xyrus2000:


This just in. Random blog poster's comment has suddenly altered known physics. CO2 lasers and insulators have suddenly began failing all over the world. Spectrographic equipment now shows pictures of "Hello Kitty". Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria.

It's impossible to take anything you say seriously when you deny fundamental physics and chemistry that have been established for more than a century. Saying that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas is like saying humans don't need oxygen to live.


Case and point:

NAM HIRES WRNATL
hr 84
well I would say we see in 84hr if what the nam is showing wll be there will be the key

NAM HIRES WRNATL
hr 84
87hrs on the 6Z GFS
Quoting 618. Tazmanian:






your in a bad mood this AM did you have any coffice this AM? you better go have some or take a nic long break from the blogs and come back later when you are not in a bad mood what ever gos on at your home you do not need too bring your bad moods here and get down on the blogers has they done nothing wrong


and i was not telling you what to do you like jumping the gune over nothing


Lol, you got served.... Why do you always want to ban people? Get your panties out of your crack and chill
Quoting 632. mcluvincane:



Lol, you got served....
sure I did
Quoting 633. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sure I did

I was referringthat you served Taz
here comes the T storm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia,
Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form around the middle part of this
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America.
Environmental conditions are conducive for some gradual development
of this system after that time while it moves slowly west-
northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hi all, I think Climate Change could be a problem sometime down the road, but their is a far greater danger to mankind then Climate Change at this point in time, anyone want to take a guess, any takers? I'll give you a hint, It's happening in the Pacific and on a very large island country who's name starts with a J, and involves a very deadly substance to all forms of life on this planet. If not brought under control soon, it could end life for a large portion of the Pacific Ocean especially with a large typhoon about to hit the area and a storm surge which could affect the problem area. This is what should be making the headlines and topic of forums, not something that may or may not happen 50 to 100 years from now. I think we have a cure for this problem as it needs to be repaired ASAP before it's to late for a lot of people. Sky do you know if they ever stopped the leaks or is the material still leaching into the Pacific as this might be the cause of the shellfish die off in the North Pacific and you know It has to be entering the food change as I type this.
bye all for this point on am going too be lurking on here not posting here any more



this blog gone down hill overe the years any ways no wounder why a few of are really good ones dont post here any more i may do the same has well
Quoting Tazmanian:
bye all for this point on am going too be lurking on here not posting here any more



this blog gone down hill overe the years any ways no wounder why a few of are really good ones dont post here any more i may do the same has well


Don't leave Taz, I'm still here!
The ECMWF is still favoring weak-EPAC development from anything in the SW Caribbean.

MBY in just inside the edge of the new SWODY1. Haven't ad a 50 knot wind gust, best I can tell, IMBY in over six years.

And after two days w/o, finally dewpoints back into the 70s. These good for the skin mornings will get rarer and rarer as we get into Winter, and we maybe get some of that 2009 an inch of snow magic.

642. JRRP
This'll have to depend on how seriously you take the GEM model, but it's starting to lean over towards SW Caribbean development. It's still showing some of the energy translating into the EPAC, but usually when you see something like this it's a sign of a shift towards another basin (in this case, ours). And it goes without saying to ignore the hurricane it's showing in the Atlantic.

Quoting 638. CybrTeddy:



Don't leave Taz, I'm still here!



i still be here but i be lurking more
Quoting 616. win1gamegiantsplease:



GFS keeps it going east across FL and leaving the Carolinas alone for the 60th anniversary of Hazel. Still something to eye since several storms that cut through FL have made their way up here.
yes but remember,things can change over the next week,stay alert and safe up there.


pink color at 100%
Quoting 615. GTstormChaserCaleb:




FIM is initialized off GFS Hour 0 initial condition interpolations (the models work in different ways) and use the GFS physics equations, or the FIM is a different way of computing the GFS and isn't independent verification. Bu there are hints from other models, although the basin may be in question.

I have a funny feeling this is the GFS TC that could verify this year.
Quoting 610. SFLWeatherman:

FIM8

FIM9

FIM7

so far it looks Like Im going to get some of this storm whew..dont need this now.
the Eastern Pacific will have a few more tropical storms soon
Quoting LargoFl:
so far it looks Like Im going to get some of this storm whew..dont need this now.


I wouldn't put much more faith in the FIMs than I would the GFS, they're experimental and GFS based so naturally they'll show a similar solution to it.
Quoting 650. CybrTeddy:



I wouldn't put much more faith in the FIMs than I would the GFS, they're experimental and GFS based so naturally they'll show a similar solution to it.


The GFS has done a terrible job all season. If the Euro isn't showing this system developing (which I'm not sure of), I wouldn't worry about anything just yet because it's too far out. Besides, a strong cold front just pushed across the GOM, which had to have lowered SSTs a notch or two.
Quoting 620. HuracandelCaribe:

Well I guess that 1000years ago we had a lot of industries and cars burning tons of fossil fuel!!!





Climate revisionists, can't you see? Go away with the agitprop please.
http://www.desmogblog.com/craig-loehle
Quoting 651. tampabaymatt:



The GFS has done a terrible job all season. If the Euro isn't showing this system developing (which I'm not sure of), I wouldn't worry about anything just yet because it's too far out. Besides, a strong cold front just pushed across the GOM, which had to have lowered SSTs a notch or two.


Isn't the Euro leaning more towards a Pacific system?
Quoting 620. HuracandelCaribe:

Well I guess that 1000years ago we had a lot of industries and cars burning tons of fossil fuel!!!




That's why you can't trust blog science...stick to the published reconstructions:





Forcings are always in flux, we have artificially influenced the dominate forcing now.


655. JRRP
Quoting 611. Xyrus2000:



This just in. Random blog poster's comment has suddenly altered known physics. CO2 lasers and insulators have suddenly began failing all over the world. Spectrographic equipment now shows pictures of "Hello Kitty". Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria.

It's impossible to take anything you say seriously when you deny fundamental physics and chemistry that have been established for more than a century. Saying that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas is like saying humans don't need oxygen to live.



Indirectly, they also need CO2 to live as they need plant life to live.
657. etxwx
Since it is morning, I can't call it a "dark and stormy night", but I will say "Tut tut, looks like rain."
Quoting tampabaymatt:


The GFS has done a terrible job all season. If the Euro isn't showing this system developing (which I'm not sure of), I wouldn't worry about anything just yet because it's too far out. Besides, a strong cold front just pushed across the GOM, which had to have lowered SSTs a notch or two.


SSTs have dropped a few degrees, but they're still more than favorable to support a tropical cyclone. Shear and dry air would be the inhibitors.
Quoting 651. tampabaymatt:



The GFS has done a terrible job all season. If the Euro isn't showing this system developing (which I'm not sure of), I wouldn't worry about anything just yet because it's too far out. Besides, a strong cold front just pushed across the GOM, which had to have lowered SSTs a notch or two.


The SST's may have lowered marginally. Water has a high specific heat, it takes a long time to get ocean water to 80+ degrees near the surface and thus takes a long time to cool. Salinity moderates this even more.
06 NCEP Ensembles..
how have those long range models worked out so far????.......
Quoting 660. ncstorm:

06 NCEP Ensembles..



Doom? Because that looks like Doom™.
664. JRRP
06z GEFS 126 hours.

Depth of GOM 26C Isotherm

Quoting 662. Naga5000:



Doom? Because that looks like Doom™.


So you own the doom trademark eh?

...please don't sue me
Typhoon VONGFANG



Hard to get DOOM with a small "d".

Well, save fo' the Florida Barrier Island


: P

Quoting 654. Naga5000:



That's why you can't trust blog science...stick to the published reconstructions:





Forcings are always in flux, we have artificially influenced the dominate forcing now.





Ups!!! Your first graph ends in 1998, the hottest year of the modern warming period.
Quoting 669. Patrap:

Hard to get DOOM with a small "d".

Well, save fo' the Florida Barrier Island


: P




Why do so many people use the "doom" term here? I see it a lot, so there must be a backstory.

Just wondering. Thanks.
Quoting 661. ricderr:

how have those long range models worked out so far????.......


Shhhhh, don't ruin the fun. Doom!!! Cat 5 hurricane barreling right into FL!!! YAY!!!!
Quoting 671. FBMinFL:



Why do so many people use the "doom" term here? I see it a lot, so there must be a backstory.

Just wondering. Thanks.


True dat.


DOOM is a way of bogging for some.

We see a lot of model frames, but notice no one jabbers about current trends in da Basin or surface stuff.

Its not so "Gloomy Doomy".

Folks got greedy since 05,

We on the down flip I believe in regards to the MDO.

And we could use the break in many places still recovering from 08, and 2012.

Quoting 670. HuracandelCaribe:



Ups!!! Your first graph ends in 1998, the hottest year of the modern warming period.

Why do climate revisionists pretend to be so retarded in reading?
Quoting 670. HuracandelCaribe:



Ups!!! Your first graph ends in 1998, the hottest year of the modern warming period.


If you look closely, you might be able to tell that the graph goes past the "2000" marker. 2010 was the record hottest year globally. A new record hottest year is coming soon.
The catalyst (P41L) is about there.



Turned the heat on this morning in my Riverdale MD home.. first time since April but it was 61 degrees in the house. The time has come.

<---- Punts'

Quoting 681. georgevandenberghe:

Turned the heat on this morning in my Riverdale MD home.. first time since April but it was 61 degrees in the house. The time has come.




Same in NY. Took the puppy out to relieve her self and had to go back to grab a sweatshirt.. robe wasn't enough. Still should hit 70F by midday, hopefully, so the days still reach pleasant temperatures. Only a matter of time.
Quoting 672. tampabaymatt:



Shhhhh, don't ruin the fun. Doom!!! Cat 5 hurricane barreling right into FL!!! YAY!!!!
LOL dont jinx us,we surely dont need this storm
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h 2 hours ago

Similar to the GFS, The Chinese Model has a tropical cyclone on the menu day 10 in the eastern gulf



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 680. WxLogic:
The catalyst (P41L) is about there.





Close up of the feature analysed as P41L , due south of Jamaica now.The overall structure appears to be moving west towards C.R. at the moment

Quoting 670. HuracandelCaribe:



Ups!!! Your first graph ends in 1998, the hottest year of the modern warming period.


No it doesn't.