WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season Since 1986

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:59 PM GMT on October 01, 2014

The traditional busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, September, is now over, and we are on the home stretch. Just three weeks remain of the peak danger portion of the season. September 2014 ended up with just two named storms forming--Dolly and Edouard. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, only one season has seen fewer named storms form in September--1997, with Category 3 Hurricane Erika being the only September storm. Between 1995 - 2014, an average of 4.3 named storms formed in September. With only five named storms so far in 2014, this is the quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986, when we also had just five named storms by the beginning of October. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), activity in the Atlantic up until October 1 has been only about 43% of the 1981 - 2010 average.


Figure 1. Tracks of Atlantic named storms in 2014. Note how all of this year's hurricanes (tracks in red) have occurred well north of the tropics, north of 24°N latitude--a testament to how hostile for development conditions have been in the tropics, due to dry, sinking air. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Forecast for the remainder of hurricane season
Looking at climatology, since 1995, we have seen an average of 3.6 named storms form in the Atlantic after October 1. Two of those years--2006 and 2002--saw no storms form after October 1. The most post-October 1 storms was eleven, which occurred in 2005--no surprise there! The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS and European models show a continuation of the basic atmospheric pattern we've seen over the tropical Atlantic this season, with plenty of dry, sinking air. These conditions should lead to lower than average activity into mid-October, which is when historically, Atlantic hurricane activity begins to drop sharply. I expect we'll see at least one more named storm in the Atlantic this year, with two a more likely number. It's unlikely we'll get three or more post-October 1 named storms.

During October, the focus of Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis shifts to the Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The Lesser Antilles typically see very few tropical cyclones after October 1, and I expect their hurricane season is over. Sea Surface Temperatures over the Caribbean are currently 0.2°C above average, and 0.4°C above average in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Atlantic hurricane activity begins to fall off sharply around mid-October.


Figure 3. Vertical instability over the Caribbean in 2014. The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since June, which has made it difficult for tropical storms to develop, and no tropical depressions or tropical storms have been able to form in the Caribbean this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
A tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa on Saturday is forecast by the UKMET and GFS models to develop by Monday in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Eastern Atlantic will bring high wind shear to this region early next week, though, making developing difficult. Another major invasion of dry air from the Sahara is currently in progress over the Tropical Atlantic, which will make it difficult for any tropical storms to make the crossing from Africa to the Lesser Antilles intact.


Figure 4. Dust from the Sahara can be seen streaming eastwards across the tropical Atlantic in this September 30, 2014 composite image from the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi spacecraft. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance 90E a heavy rainfall threat
In the Eastern Pacific, an elongated area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) was located a few hundred miles south of the Pacific coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and was headed west-northwest near 10 mph. This disturbance has good support from all three of our top tropical cyclone genesis models to develop this week. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 90%, respectively. 90E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico throughout the week. So far, though, 90E's heavy rains have remained offshore, as seen on satellite loops. Tropical Depression Rachel dissipated a few hundred miles west of Baja, Mexico on Tuesday.

Typhoon Phanfone a threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Phanfone has taken advantage of light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and extremely warm ocean temperatures of 31°C (88°F) and intensified into a Category 1 typhoon. Ocean temperatures will cool slightly to 30°C (86°F) on Thursday but wind shear will remain light, which should allow Phanfone to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon, and possibly a super typhoon with winds of 150 mph or greater. The typhoon is headed northwest towards Japan, and the 00Z Wednesday runs of the GFS and European models both show Phanfone recurving to the northeast and making landfall on the southern Japan main island of Kyushu early next week. However, the models are widely divergent in their handling of the trough of low pressure expected to pull Phanfone to the northeast, resulting in major differences in the forward speed of the storm. The GFS model has landfall occurring near 18 UTC on Sunday, while the European model is almost two days slower, with a 12 UTC Tuesday landfall. Given these huge differences in the forecasts from our top two typhoon track models, the long-range fate of Phanfone is highly uncertain.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.
Quiet indeed Dr!

As it stands presently...






Eye keeps trying to clear, but intensity has seemed fairly level for last 12 hours or so.
Going to be a quiet one, hey, Doc?

What is that little feature to the SE of Phanfone.

http://i.imgur.com/oStjdAg.png
I'm off for while. Have to bring the bike into the shop before work for some new used tires. Have a good one all.

Keep on keepin' on!
I'll give 2014 some credit, it was a higher quality year than 2013 was (which isn't saying much). Arthur and Edouard were fun to track, at the very least.
thanks Jeff Masters
Thanks Doc.


The Lesser Antilles typically see very few tropical cyclones after October 1, and I expect their hurricane season is over.
Sorry Carribboy.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. Masters!


DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20141001 1145 16.3 103.6 T1.0/1.0 90E 90E
20141001 0545 16.2 102.9 T1.0/1.0 90E 90E

invest 90E WILL be a T.D soon!
GFS

CMC
Thanks Dr. M.

Welcome to October Texas style. :)


Thank you Dr. Masters....I love this hurricane season.....
Thanks Doc, When I rolled out my 2014 Hurricane Forecast several variables really stood out this year and I have them listed below. When I did research on this back in Spring I really thought that this years hurricane season was going to be a dud. Funny because at the time I took a lot of flack because of it and to be honest even Doc himself thought we would have atleast an average season. So as a result you can see where I was getting at this past May and as usual I put my money where my mouth is and came out on top. El-Nino I may have busted but everything else continued to fall into place to make my predictions accurate.

Factors of why we saw the season we did.

1. Sea Surface anomalies across the MDR remained below normal all year


2. SAL was in abundance all Season as well causing the atmosphere to remain very dry


3. Presence of shear was Basin wide.


4. As Doc mentioned himself vertical instability was a big issue


5. The MJO was stuck over in the E-Pac all season creating active conditions there while causing sinking air across our Basin
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Thanks Doc, When I rolled out my 2014 Hurricane Forecast several variables really stood out this year and I have them listed below. When I did research on this back in Spring I really thought that this years hurricane season was going to be a dud. Funny because at the time I took a lot of flack because of it and to be honest even Doc himself thought we would have atleast an average season. So as a result you can see where I was getting at this past May and as usual I put my money where my mouth is and came out on top. El-Nino I may have busted but everything else continued to fall into place to make my predictions accurate.

Factors of why we saw the season we did.

1. Sea Surface anomalies across the MDR remained below normal all year


2. SAL was in abundance all Season as well causing the atmosphere to remain very dry


3. Shear everywhere across the Basin


4. As Doc mentioned himself vertical instability was a big issue

5. The MJO was stuck over in the E-Pac all season creating active conditions there while causing sinking air across our Basin
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Thanks Doc, When I rolled out my 2014 Hurricane Forecast several variables really stood out this year and I have them listed below. When I did research on this back in Spring I really thought that this years hurricane season was going to be a dud. Funny because at the time I took a lot of flack because of it and to be honest even Doc himself thought we would have atleast an average season. So as a result you can see where I was getting at this past May and as usual I put my money where my mouth is and came out on top. El-Nino I may have busted but everything else continued to fall into place to make my predictions accurate.

Factors of why we saw the season we did.

1. Sea Surface anomalies across the MDR remained below normal all year


2. SAL was in abundance all Season as well causing the atmosphere to remain very dry


3. Presence of shear was Basin wide.


4. As Doc mentioned himself vertical instability was a big issue


5. The MJO was stuck over in the E-Pac all season creating active conditions there while causing sinking air across our Basin


Congrats Scott for coming out "on top."
So this means no tropical cyclone in October
Quoting 17. jrweatherman:



Congrats Scott for coming out "on top."


I was the only one on here to forecast 5 to 7 storms. It was a educated guess that took some research to come to this conclusion while taking El-Nino out of the equation I knew the results would be the same.
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:

Thanks Doc, When I rolled out my 2014 Hurricane Forecast several variables really stood out this year and I have them listed below. When I did research on this back in Spring I really thought that this years hurricane season was going to be a dud. Funny because at the time I took a lot of flack because of it and to be honest even Doc himself thought we would have atleast an average season. So as a result you can see where I was getting at this past May and as usual I put my money where my mouth is and came out on top. El-Nino I may have busted but everything else continued to fall into place to make my predictions accurate.


You must be so proud of yourself.
 

Your El Nino predictions on the other hand......

Quoting 20. StormTrackerScott:



Not according to the CPC atleast for the first 2 weeks of October.




Wow so this means We Floridians will be escaping another Season without a hurricane
I was trying to google to find what sinking air and trade winds had in connection with causing the SAL to be so bad the last two seasons...and google is down
Quoting 21. CybrTeddy:

Looks like user UICramer will end up having the most correct seasonal prediction, assuming we only get 1-2 more named storms this season.

I threw out 8-4-2, looks like I was close enough.



I thought we'd make it to Josephine, but never posted anything official. I was thinking 10-5-2. Still time to at least get 5 and 2 but if we get 10 I'm buying a few lotto's. Merry Christmas to me.
26. vis0
Thank you Dr. "quiet!!!!" Masters.
Quoting 21. CybrTeddy:

Looks like user UICramer will end up having the most correct seasonal prediction, assuming we only get 1-2 more named storms this season.

I threw out 8-4-2, looks like I was close enough.



Actually I was the only one close to being right. My prediction wasn't noted as people on here thought it was nuts. Guess who has the last laugh now.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like user UICramer will end up having the most correct seasonal prediction, assuming we only get 1-2 more named storms this season.

I threw out 8-4-2, looks like I was close enough.

My 8-2-1 isn't perfect, but it's better than last year's forecast....
Quoting 23. weatherman994:



Wow so this means We Floridians will be escaping another Season without a hurricane


Or the opposite
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like user UICramer will end up having the most correct seasonal prediction, assuming we only get 1-2 more named storms this season.

I threw out 8-4-2, looks like I was close enough.


So our blogger who claimed victory didn't forecast 5-7 but actually 8.
Quoting 21. CybrTeddy:

Looks like user UICramer will end up having the most correct seasonal prediction, assuming we only get 1-2 more named storms this season.

I threw out 8-4-2, looks like I was close enough.


Good Work as always! Still have time to get one in the Carribean, Have about 3 Weeks to go there. GFS is back at it again.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Actually I was the only one close to being right. My prediction wasn't noted as people on here thought it was nuts. Guess who has the last laugh now.

As of May 15, your prediction was 8-3-1. Changing it after that date takes away from the purpose of the bets, and it's technically cheating.
Quoting 23. weatherman994:



Wow so this means We Floridians will be escaping another Season without a hurricane

Doesn't mean anything. Why rush to conclusions? Have about a month to go.
6 tropical systems so far.......climatology says another 3.6........climatology for a forming el nino year says 2.....i'd have to say the season isn't over just yet.....


There is a minimum of 8 weeks left in this years Atlantic storm season, kinda funny to read people calling it over on October 1st..
Cest la vie
As of May 15, your prediction was 8-3-1. Changing it after that date takes away from the purpose of the bets, and it's technically cheating.



dang it........you're not supposed to have a memory
Quoting luvtogolf:


So our blogger who claimed victory didn't forecast 5-7 but actually 8.


4 bloggers forecasted 7 and Taz 6. Right now Taz wins with a tie if 4 others for 2nd and 8 gets you in 5th place. Congrats Taz!
So our blogger who claimed victory didn't forecast 5-7 but actually 8.



say it isn't so.....the inhumanity of dishonesty disheartens me
thanx teddy for that link.....nice to see the facts for what they are...not what some want them to be
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Never forecasted 8 always was 5 to 7 you should know as you where one of the one's throwing darts. Anyways maybe you might actually get to golf on Sunday as the rain should finally stop. It's raining here for the 19th straight day.


The link with predictions says 8-3. That's what we are going by.
Quoting 32. TropicalAnalystwx13:


As of May 15, your prediction was 8-3-1. Changing it after that date takes away from the purpose of the bets, and it's technically cheating.


Back in May I forecasted 5 to 7 named storms and got blasted for it. I will find the post and post it on here later on today or better yet stormwx has it saved.
Quoting 31. sporteguy03:


Good Work as always! Still have time to get one in the Carribean, Have about 3 Weeks to go there. GFS is back at it again.
I went 8/4/1 in late May, figuring El Nino was on the way, but it was not to be..Then I changed my guess to 13 or 14 named storms in August, because it started to look favorable over the MDR.....I like my crow well done, and save the bones for stock.
Quoting ricderr:
thanx teddy for that link.....nice to see the facts for what they are...not what some want them to be


I forecasted 5-1 but forgot to submit it. I Win!!!!!!!
All you guys were wrong and now you don't remember me saying that god knows it has been talked about on here all summer. Selective reasoning on here. What a joke so many are on here.
ugggg its going to be quasi desert here by January....come on tropics give us one more system to bring rain.....maybe just some low pressure??? and some dust free rising air for a day....
Quoting 41. luvtogolf:



The link with predictions says 8-3. That's what we are going by.


I'm sure you are
Check this out...May be some cool weather for many...

I'd ay seasons not over yet October usually doesn''t disappoint I guess :/
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I'm sure you are


Not just me. Everyone else as well. You claim victory but the facts on the contest are the facts. Accept it and move on.
I forecasted 5-1 but forgot to submit it. I Win!!!!!!!


i forcasted the same as i do every year.,.......0.....and i always lose........however...i have each month pointed out the average each month for a year of a forming el nino........which is 8....and so far...we're right on track for that....so...no patting me on the back....but mother nature is right on
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
All you guys were wrong and now you don't remember me saying that god knows it has been talked about on here all summer. Selective reasoning on here. What a joke so many are on here.


We're all a "joke?" You are just upset because you didn't expect the facts to come out and shoot down your victory.
Quoting ricderr:
I forecasted 5-1 but forgot to submit it. I Win!!!!!!!


i forcasted the same as i do every year.,.......0.....and i always lose........however...i have each month pointed out the average each month for a year of a forming el nino........which is 8....and so far...we're right on track for that....so...no patting me on the back....but mother nature is right on


Yep, despite what we all say, wish for or forecast - mother nature always wins.
Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:



Actually I was the only one close to being right. My prediction wasn't noted as people on here thought it was nuts. Guess who has the last laugh now.


You're too funny! : )



I hope you're being funny.
Since I'm about two weeks shy of a year having a wunderground account where were these preseason predictions posted that so many have? I definitely missed the memo, I've predicted before June after I printed out my first tracking map around 2009 (or whatever season had Bill). Used to get those Home Depot maps before that but always lost them.
Quoting 54. ricderr:




Pat. lol
Quoting 54. ricderr:


Canefree & Birthmark....so far....October can be a big month...November 30 will be here soon enough.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I did say that and you know it and I am looking for the post now as when I posted it Stormwx and riccder went on a frenzy as well as the boltwright girl


You really hate to lose don't you.
Quoting 59. hydrus:

Canefree & Birthmark....so far....October can be a big month...November 30 will be here soon enough.


A couple late season TS's make you win :P
Quoting 59. hydrus:

Canefree & Birthmark....so far....October can be a big month...November 30 will be here soon enough...edit...Robintampabay at 7 also..
64. vis0
i am so off in my 2014 TS predicts i fell off the edge of earth...but we still have till Feb 2015 to rererererererererecount and even add a few anomaly TS?
Does the toothfairy (or toothpoof) do weather-wishes?  Does anyone have a millipeed so i want to cross its ???s.
(the amount of re's are what i need to break even)

MY excuse? i let my ego take over, i wanted to post "A V G +1" under my four columns but in figuring out El Nino might be mod to Low added the Pacific energy to the ATL.  When i read up on that its not a given, in fact under 30% that Pac to ATL energy happens in the last  ~century. oh well back to the crayon board, though i can still quote Yogi B... " boo boo, its not yer average...till the...sings" i think i mixed Berra & Bear, oh well.
Well the season does appear it is over as far as anything on the Northern Gulf Coast. When we start seeing fronts making it through to the Gulf, and temperatures falling into the 50s, landfall season for us is pretty much over. After the front passes through on Thursday and Friday, high temperature in the 70s on Saturday and falling well into the 50s overnight. It will feel like a breath of fresh air! We need a break for at least about 20 years here anyway.

Get ready Florida Keys...Here it comes!
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:

All you guys were wrong and now you don't remember me saying that god knows it has been talked about on here all summer. Selective reasoning on here. What a joke so many are on here.


Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



I did say that and you know it and I am looking for the post now as when I posted it Stormwx and riccder went on a frenzy as well as the boltwright girl

When you're back in the archives check to see who forecasted the unforgettable EPIC Great Record Busting Florida Heat Wave of May 24.
On my blog I've already posted my 2015 predictions. They'll startle some people, but I was very close this year, so take my track record into account. I predicted there'd be a storm named Edward in 2014, you might recall. Very close, indeed. Why, some might say nearly perfect.

I will now resume lurking until they give out the prize for best guess....er..... expert prediction.

Quoting 65. katrinaeyewall:

Well the season does appear it is over as far as anything on the Northern Gulf Coast. When we start seeing fronts making it through to the Gulf, and temperatures falling into the 50s, landfall season for us is pretty much over. After the front passes through on Thursday and Friday, high temperature in the 70s on Saturday and falling well into the 50s overnight. It will feel like a breath of fresh air! We need a break for at least about 20 years here anyway.
+80
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



I did say that and you know it and I am looking for the post now as when I posted it Stormwx and riccder went on a frenzy as well as the boltwright girl


boltdwright GIRL? LOL! You didn't even bother to look at my profile picture and see I am a dude right? Scott the only reason I give you crap is because some of the stuff you post is not meteorological sound thinking. I think as one who is about to get my masters in Meteorology I am justified in saying that. Gotta be OBJECTIVE in this field broski :)
It's not over yet.

The Red Sox were all high fives in the bottom of the ninth in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series. The even had the champagne set up in their locker room. Many of us know how that worked out for them.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3UXgwqlDAo

Link

Quoting 27. StormTrackerScott:



Actually I was the only one close to being right. My prediction wasn't noted as people on here thought it was nuts. Guess who has the last laugh now.
So we go from having 3 back to back active seasons to a season like 2014..
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



I did say that and you know it and I am looking for the post now as when I posted it Stormwx and riccder went on a frenzy as well as the boltwright girl


Don't waist your time Scott. The contest is documented and that is what we are going by. No one else on here is claiming the contest is not valid. And by the way, you can always find a post, edit it and submit so we won't believe you anyway.
Great, you left off my prediction of 37-24-10. I'll never get credit now :-(


Quoting 54. ricderr:


There must be a mistake here... because if this were true... Tropical Atlantic instability would be... above normal?!?!



Lol, unfortunately, much too little, much too late. We can see how it plays out over the coming months to see if we could get a decent 2015, although I doubt it stays at or above normal for long. I think probably one more storm this year, but that's just a statistical guess. We might be done, or we might squeeze out two or three. Throwing specific numbers aside, the official forecasts for a below normal year certainly verified well, much better than last year, although this season probably still underachieved a little.
so far very little ace for the atlantic basin. only one major and even that one did not last long. acc/ to the record keeping cant blame it on el nino but every one knows it is somewhat responsible for this sleeper.
Quoting dutchessweather:
It must be due to  that man-made global warming, I mean man-made climate change, yeah, that's it. (but you have to have the man-made warming to have man-made climate change, right?)  I have to admit, when you fraudsters got revealed on the man-made global warming scam, it was brilliant to start calling the scam "climate change"!  I'm going to start a classic pyramid investment scam, but call it a "value-leveraged group participation investment club".  It's funny to sit back and watch you people dig the hole deeper and deeper.


Oh shut up.
The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS and European models show a continuation of the basic atmospheric pattern we've seen over the tropical Atlantic this season, with plenty of dry, sinking air.

By the second week the pressures in the GOM and W Caribbean begin to drop according to both 00z and 12z GFS, of course we'll have to wait and see how the environment looks by then.
Hi everyone.

After all the rain the past few weeks it looks to be much drier. Have a nice day!

82. JRRP
Quoting 75. HaoleboySurfEC:

Great, you left off my prediction of 37-24-10. I'll never get credit now :-(





I wonder if the NHC has a backup plan in a extremely unlikely season where Greek names aren't enough...Germanic runes?
Quoting 75. HaoleboySurfEC:

Great, you left off my prediction of 37-24-10. I'll never get credit now :-(





One thing that really stands out with the predictions is the wide range with a low of 6 to a high of 24.
Quoting 77. dutchessweather:

It must be due to  that man-made global warming, I mean man-made climate change, yeah, that's it. (but you have to have the man-made warming to have man-made climate change, right?)  I have to admit, when you fraudsters got revealed on the man-made global warming scam, it was brilliant to start calling the scam "climate change"!  I'm going to start a classic pyramid investment scam, but call it a "value-leveraged group participation investment club".  It's funny to sit back and watch you people dig the hole deeper and deeper.



Stirring the post I see. Waiting for Nea or Naga to set you straight.
Quoting 80. win1gamegiantsplease:

The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS and European models show a continuation of the basic atmospheric pattern we've seen over the tropical Atlantic this season, with plenty of dry, sinking air.

By the second week the pressures in the GOM and W Caribbean begin to drop according to both 00z and 12z GFS, of course we'll have to wait and see how the environment looks by then.


I did notice that but just take it with a little grain of salt. The same thing that causes the GFS to forecast a "ghost-cane" (something with the way it processes latent heat/water-vapor) in the atmosphere also would have the same effect of lowering pressures. If you have watched the GFS a lot this year you'll notice that it drops pressures towards the end of a model run. Either way we'll see what happens, just have to remember to always be objective about any model run and list reasons in your head why/why not this could happen meteorologically.
Quoting 77. dutchessweather:

It must be due to  that man-made global warming, I mean man-made climate change, yeah, that's it. (but you have to have the man-made warming to have man-made climate change, right?)  I have to admit, when you fraudsters got revealed on the man-made global warming scam, it was brilliant to start calling the scam "climate change"!  I'm going to start a classic pyramid investment scam, but call it a "value-leveraged group participation investment club".  It's funny to sit back and watch you people dig the hole deeper and deeper.

Can you prove that any specific claim on climate change is a fraud.? If so, ad to your long list of comments youve acquired since 05..
I wonder if the WPAC is about to do what it did last year and go nuts in October-November. Check out the 12z GFS, the potential for 2-3 Typhoons to develop (including the one out there right now) exists within the next week or so exists. Doesn't look like there's much of an MJO pulse coming through, is there a CCKW wave predicted to move through the basin in the next week or so?
89. RJY
Quoting 87. hydrus:

Can you prove that any specific claim on climate change is a fraud.? If so, ad to your long list of comments youve acquired since 05..

Can you prove that it isn't? Can you prove what actually causes it or doesn't cause it?
Quoting 82. JRRP:




That wave is full of heavy dust to the north as the liner form of it shows.
Currently Brownsville, Texas is 85 degrees Fahrenheit with a juicy dewpoint of 83 degrees Fahrenheit. Which I believe yields a heat index temperature of 98-105 degrees Fahrenheit!!!
lol, I just hope they don't use the german word for a military tank: schutzengrabenvernichtungsautomobile


Actually the NHC backup is famous cartoon and children show characters:

Archie
Big Bird
Catbert
Daffy
Elmo...


Quoting 83. win1gamegiantsplease:



I wonder if the NHC has a backup plan in a extremely unlikely season where Greek names aren't enough...Germanic runes?

Quoting 85. luvtogolf:



Stirring the post I see. Waiting for Nea or Naga to set you straight.



You have to say my name three times in the mirror to summon me...
Phanfone continues to retain an excellent structure for intensification. I expect this to peak out ~120-135 knots at the very least. 00z ECMWF absolutely bombs this thing out. GFS is more conservative, but still brings it up to what would be equal to a Category 4.



why a yellow x at 40 north!!
Quoting 89. RJY:


Can you prove that it isn't? Can you prove what actually causes it or doesn't cause it?
I can prove that the Earths climate is warming. I can prove that factories emit gases known to trap heat within the Earths atmosphere. What good is my proof if I have already been labeled as a fraud.?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical gale located about 375 miles south-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia, is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
northeast of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while this system
interacts with an upper-level low and a surface front during the
next couple of days. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

invest 96L COMING BACK!
Quoting 93. Naga5000:





You have to say my name three times in the mirror to summon me...


C'mon let him have it. I've taken over a whole new outlook on life:)
Quoting 92. HaoleboySurfEC:

lol, I just hope they don't use the german word for a military tank: schutzengrabenvernichtungsautomobile


Actually the NHC backup is famous cartoon and children show characters:

Archie
Big Bird
Catbert
Daffy
Elmo...





Don't know much German but the Dutch word for insurance company is "verzekeringsmaatschappij", that's about as long as I can think of. (you could make it levensverkekeringsmaatschappij for life insurance company I guess)

Good to know the NHC can lighten up the mood with giving a horrendously dangerous hurricane season with cartoon characters lol. And seeing as nobody has seen my earlier post where was this preseason prediction thing? I haven't had my account for very long but I should've seen it. Definitely missed it.
If I worked at the hurricane center, I would pick a random cloud in Caribbean or Gulf and put a red circle on it. then sit back and watch this blog go nuts.

Gotta kill time somehow in a slow season...
Quoting 96. hydrus:

I can prove that the Earths climate is warming. I can prove that factories emit gases known to trap heat within the Earths atmosphere. What good is my proof if I have already been labeled as a fraud.?


We can also measure the incoming energy and the outgoing energy and determine there is an imbalance. That imbalance is at the absorption spectrum of CO2 and other GHG's. On top of that, the stratosphere is cooling while the troposphere warms. Another direct relation to increased CO2.

If someone could show there is another reason for these observations, that would be something amazing, but currently all the observations fit into well established chemistry, physics, and geosciences.
Flood Warning
Statement as of 10:27 AM EDT on October 01, 2014
The Flood Warning continues for the St Johns River near Astor.

* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

*At 2.5 feet, water begins to cover docks at south moon Fish Camp. Water begins to move into yards in low lying areas along the river.

*At 2.8 feet, minor flooding occurs to homes and businesses in low lying areas along the river.

Fld observed forecast 7 am EST/8am EDT location stg stg day time Thu Fri Sat sun Mon

St. Johns River Astor 2.8 2.9 Wed 09 am 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Quoting 98. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical gale located about 375 miles south-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia, is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
northeast of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while this system
interacts with an upper-level low and a surface front during the
next couple of days. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

invest 96L COMING BACK!
What was the point NHC.
Sep 30, 2014
NOAA's Latest High Resolution Weather Model is Released

A new high resolution weather model developed by NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado was made operational by the National Weather Service. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model generates extremely detailed 3-kilometer resolution data for a multitude of 2-D and 3-D variables, each with 15 minute intervals. This spatial and temporal resolution is a great improvement over previous operational models and will be critical for predicting rapidly evolving severe weather. This image from the September 30, 2014 18z run...



Link
Quoting 99. luvtogolf:



C'mon let him have it. I've taken over a whole new outlook on life:)


I would love to, but I have to go onto campus for some meetings. I'll be sure to think up some witty responses while I'm there. :)
Another look at the -AO crash coming up.



EDIT: Just saw Hydrus posted this a few posts back.
Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



I did say that and you know it and I am looking for the post now as when I posted it Stormwx and riccder went on a frenzy as well as the boltwright girl


I want to like you man and I try my best to stick up for ya, but c'mon. Let it go.

I could buy you a shovel if ya like. It'll help you dig faster. Also, I have a friend who may give ya good deal on renting a backhoe. Let me know. More than happy to help my fellow Floridians. :p
Think it was back in early to mid May. That's about all I know.

Quoting 100. win1gamegiantsplease:



Don't know much German but the Dutch word for insurance company is "verzekeringsmaatschappij", that's about as long as I can think of. (you could make it levensverkekeringsmaatschappij for life insurance company I guess)

Good to know the NHC can lighten up the mood with giving a horrendously dangerous hurricane season with cartoon characters lol. And seeing as nobody has seen my earlier post where was this preseason prediction thing? I haven't had my account for very long but I should've seen it. Definitely missed it.
Quoting 107. CybrTeddy:

Another look at the -AO crash coming up.




If that's a sign of things to come, beyond this particular forecast, well..... Hoping for rain in California for my farm to table plans, but in the mean time, I'll be in FL. Interesting.
Quoting 110. GatorWX:



If that's a sign of things to come, beyond this particular forecast, well..... Hoping for rain in California for my farm to table plans, but in the mean time, I'll be in FL. Interesting.


It'll mean good things for people in Florida who want cooler weather, imo. Look at the 2m Temp anomalies @ 312 hours.

Appears to be deepening again after a relative lull.



My gut is telling me this could be a decent one for Japan; more memorable than any recently anyway.
Quoting 21. CybrTeddy:

Looks like user UICramer will end up having the most correct seasonal prediction, assuming we only get 1-2 more named storms this season.

I threw out 8-4-2, looks like I was close enough.

My numbers were 7-2-1, not to far off.
Guess Max missed my guess too, can't even remember for sure, but I'm high on the named for sure (but not as high as Pat) Sure not going to try digging it up. Think it was 11,5,2 but ...

Storms training from my W to NW, Columbia, MO to Quincy must be wet. In S C IL, 83 w/ a 62 dew pt, 29.88", light southerly winds.
Quoting 111. CybrTeddy:



It'll mean good things for people in Florida who want cooler weather, imo. Look at the 2m Temp anomalies @ 312 hours.




Yeah, and opposite, generally out west. They need the rain so bad.My aunt lives in Santa Cruz and says it's been one of the driest periods she can remember. Strange as the Atlantic basin acted as if an el nino was occuring which would generally give her cooler temps and above avg precip. Higher temps at higher lats in the Pacific? May not be an el nino, but that body of water is still having quite the influence it seems.
Quoting 101. BobinTampa:

If I worked at the hurricane center, I would pick a random cloud in Caribbean or Gulf and put a red circle on it. then sit back and watch this blog go nuts.

Gotta kill time somehow in a slow season...
Truth be told.... There is a lot more work getting done in my office this season. :/
118. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That wave is full of heavy dust to the north as the liner form of it shows.

yeah... oh my.. looks like June
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh shut up.

I was not expecting that from you. You have no idea how hard I busted out laughing in class.
Brownsville, Texas

Temp: 89F

dew: 82F

HI: 110F
Quoting 106. Naga5000:



I would love to, but I have to go onto campus for some meetings. I'll be sure to think up some witty responses while I'm there. :)


I'm sure you will:)
Quoting 119. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I was not expecting that from you. You have no idea how hard I busted out laughing in class.


How were you explain to explain that you were laughing at a post made by a guy who goes under the username "CybrTeddy"? :P
12Z GFS looks more like the 12Z CMC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. IT IS EASILY
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 10N TO
20N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 56W. PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 60W IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE.
Went to a regional radar and noticed a new line tying to pop up west of the one I mentioned earlier. Pulled up KCs radar and nice little red cluster SE of town might be worth keeping an eye on.

Also, they drastically changed our weekend forecast. Yesterday it said supposed to be one day cool down on Sat. 69, 65, 72 I believe. Today they have it only 65 Friday & windy, only 55 Sat w/ our first high 30s low Sun morning, then recover to 62, Sun., & only 65 Mon. (from 75). Fall will be here, big change from these mid 80s w/ mid to high 50s for lows. Have just begun to see some color in the earlier turners, if it stays dryish expect the Great River Road will start to get busy in next couple weeks.
Quoting weatherbro:
Brownsville, Texas

Temp: 89F

dew: 82F

HI: 110F


Just like our local hot spot in S.W. Fl.

Immokalee, FL 

Elev 36ft
26.43°N, 81.40°W| Updated 19 min ago

Partly Cloudy
93°F

Feels Like 110°F

Quoting 111. CybrTeddy:



It'll mean good things for people in Florida who want cooler weather, imo. Look at the 2m Temp anomalies @ 312 hours.




Which is why I said the initial front coming this weekend will be pattern changing with the longwave trough dominating in the east. Teleconnections support this with rising PNA values, and negative NAO/AO combo. Should see several shortwaves traverse the eastern trough supported by the Hudson Bay low. CPC outlooks starting to reflect the pattern.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


It'll mean good things for people in Florida who want cooler weather, imo. Look at the 2m Temp anomalies @ 312 hours.



Our local weather here in Fort Myers is supposed to cool down to mid 80s (highs) mid 60s (lows) for Sunday/Monday.
The biggest thing will be the drop in humidity which will make it feel really good.
Quoting 128. Drakoen:



Which is why I said the initial front coming this weekend will be pattern changing with the longwave trough dominating in the east. Teleconnections support this with rising PNA values, and negative NAO/AO combo. Should see several shortwaves traverse the eastern trough supported by the Hudson Bay low. CPC outlooks starting to reflect the pattern.


I hope this carries on into winter!!.October is one of the wettest months in the D.C area.So not surprised.If only this was December and not October.
Day 15 GFS Lol
Quoting 126. Sfloridacat5:



Just like our local hot spot in S.W. Fl.

Immokalee, FL 

Elev 36ft
26.43°N, 81.40°W| Updated 19 min ago

Partly Cloudy
93°F

Feels Like 110°F




Slightly cooler and more important less humid weather is coming.
Quoting 54. ricderr:
Wunderground members hurricane forecast


That was really mean, ricderr, lol. - Last year I went with the flow in my guesses - and lost! This year I decided to guess against the flow - and will loose even more, sigh. Only little comfort is to see that some famous members should be even more wrong than me :-P


the yellow x is now a cheesebuger!!!
Quoting 102. Naga5000:



...... On top of that, the stratosphere is cooling while the troposphere warms. ...


The interesting part about that fact is that would lead to a heightening of the tropopause. Interesting to see what sort of impact this could have in tropical regions. I say this because tropical regions contain the coldest temperatures in the troposphere, and a warming of the troposphere combined with the cooling stratosphere would only increase the overall layer instability.
Quoting barbamz:


That was really mean, ricderr, lol. - Last year I went with the flow in my guesses - and lost! This year I decided to guess against the flow - and will loose even more, sigh. Only little comfort is to see that some famous members should be even more wrong than me :-P


I did the same thing. I went against the flow just to be different and because "the flow" including the pros have been very wrong lately.

Quoting 89. RJY:


Can you prove that it isn't? Can you prove what actually causes it or doesn't cause it?


Yep. Start with Fourier's initial work on greenhouse theory in 1825, then work you're way forward.
Quoting 93. Naga5000:





You have to say my name three times in the mirror to summon me...


The last time I did that you showed up in a stripped suit, funky hair style, and demanded I marry you to break some weird curse. I had to say your name three more times to make you go away. ;D
Quoting luvtogolf:


Slightly cooler and more important less humid weather is coming.


Just like magic it arrives just on time. Typically we see our first fronts in October. They usually decrease our precipitation quite a bit (by shutting down our summer time daily T storms).
Quoting 140. Sfloridacat5:



Just like magic it arrives just on time. Typically we see our first fronts in October. They usually decrease our precipitation quite a bit (by shutting down our summer time daily T storms).


The last few winters have been pretty warm and have had the first fronts late at arriving, maybe this year will be a change.
wonder what global warming might do to our tropical season? longer seasons yet with a break in the middle of it due to dry air? i know there is a planting season in between the rainy season in central america . somewhat like that.
watching the area south of the azores. its moving sw and could be in the central atlantic next week my forecast needs an active october
ADT about to skyrocket

Should become a STY within 18 hours

Flood picture of the day
Texas Hill Country, 2002 (33" of rain over a period of days)


Credit - Comal County Engineer's Office
ECMWF going all in...

Looks like we have a pinhole eye alert.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ECMWF going all in...



There will probably be another volcanic eruption, earthquake, and a tsunami before that storm gets to Japan.
Quoting 105. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sep 30, 2014
NOAA's Latest High Resolution Weather Model is Released

A new high resolution weather model developed by NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado was made operational by the National Weather Service. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model generates extremely detailed 3-kilometer resolution data for a multitude of 2-D and 3-D variables, each with 15 minute intervals. This spatial and temporal resolution is a great improvement over previous operational models and will be critical for predicting rapidly evolving severe weather. This image from the September 30, 2014 18z run...



Link


Looks like the south is in flames and the north is choking due to smoke, huh. Quite a catastrophic design ;-)
Good Afternoon. Just checking in and noticed Dr. M's new blog. Being the good scientist that he is, there is no speculation as to what might be causing this very quiet season (end of the active period, other anomalies we do not understand, magic shields, weather manipulation, alien conspiracy, etc). It just is what it is..........A below average season marked by another period of dry, stable sinking air in the Atlantic MDR. Still an interesting 3 years in a row with lots of storms struggling in the Central Atlantic and the Caribbean due to a variety of factors that have been noted and discussed here the last three Atlantic seasons.
After Friday, it's on to the dry doldrums of fall!!!
Lake Effect snow pic (Simcoe County, Ontario).

Wasaga Beach - 24" in 12 hours (source Wiki).

Interesting thought, according to the above graph by Dr. Masters, is that we still have around 25 days yet before tropical cyclone activity probabilities settle back below what they normally are at mid-August. Something to think about, especially if this season were to be later in coming into play.

I also wonder something else.
Since this Atlantic season has seen the least activity since 1986, do we blame that on global warming; and, if so, what about if it had been higher than usual? (Heh), seems like a "heads I win, tails you lose" twist to it all, if so.
Quoting 152. Sfloridacat5:

Lake Effect snow pic.

Wasaga Beach - 24" in 12 hours (source Wiki).


What a beautiful scene!.
155. yoboi
Quoting 138. Xyrus2000:



Yep. Start with Fourier's initial work on greenhouse theory in 1825, then work you're way forward.



Just getting to the 1970's now and have over 500 failed predictions......Think I see a trend......
Quoting 100. win1gamegiantsplease:



Don't know much German but the Dutch word for insurance company is "verzekeringsmaatschappij", that's about as long as I can think of. (you could make it levensverkekeringsmaatschappij for life insurance company I guess)

Good to know the NHC can lighten up the mood with giving a horrendously dangerous hurricane season with cartoon characters lol. And seeing as nobody has seen my earlier post where was this preseason prediction thing? I haven't had my account for very long but I should've seen it. Definitely missed it.


Why use such a long word? With insurance companies four letters is usually enough.


maybe a eye soon
Phanfone will explodes tonight, so?!
Quoting 87. hydrus:

Can you prove that any specific claim on climate change is a fraud.? If so, ad to your long list of comments youve acquired since 05..
No model I am aware of predicted an 18 year hiatus in global temperature rise while CO2 concentration increased from about 370 ppm to 400 ppm. Explanations such at temperature recording and collection is more accurate or heat island effects are leveling off come to mind. There is no question CO2 re-radiates infrared back to Earth. The question is what is the effect, if any, including negative feedback such as increased cloud cover.
could this be that the ~20 year active period for Atlantic hurricanes is really over, and we'll have a continuation of the last few years going forward? I hope so, my flood and wind insurance premiums could actually stop growing by leaps and bounds! :-)
Quoting washingtonian115:
What a beautiful scene!.


My Grandfather lived in Idaho and he used to tell me stories about going to sleep at night with no snow on the ground and waking up in the morning with 3 feet of snow.

That would be pretty cool to see. It's happend to me before, but only about 8" the next morning.
I went to bed, but I kept looking out the window to see if it was snowing. When I fell a sleep it was still raining hard so I was bummed.
But when I woke up and looked out my window everything was covered by about 8" of snow (no school!!!)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014

The area of low pressure south of Manzanillo has become better
defined today and has enough organized deep convection to be
considered a tropical cyclone. The cloud pattern consists of a
small area of central convection west of the partially exposed
low-level center and a curved band wrapping around the north and
west side of the circulation. The initial intensity of 25 kt is
based on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The structure
of the cyclone is consistent with moderate easterly shear as shown
by the SHIPS model. This shear is forecast to diminish in the next
12 to 24 hours, which should allow for some intensification while
the cyclone is moving over warm SSTs for the next couple of days.
Later in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler SSTs
west of the Baja California peninsula and encounter a somewhat drier
airmass, which should lead to gradual weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the HWRF and the SHIPS model through 48 hours
and is near the SHIPS forecast after that time.

The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 290/07, since the
center has only recently been apparent in visible imagery. In the
short range, most of the track model guidance, with the exception
of the GFDL and the GFDL ensemble mean, shows the cyclone moving
generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a
subtropical ridge. Model spread increases markedly beyond 36 hours.
The GFS and ECMWF are well to the left showing a more westward
motion, while the aforementioned GFDL and its ensemble mean show a
northwestward and then northward motion well to the right of the
rest of the guidance. The HWRF and UKMET models are in between these
solutions, showing a northward turn around day 3. The NHC track
forecast is a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus
out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but remains well to
the right of the consensus of those models at days 3 through 5.
Given the large spread in the guidance, confidence in the details of
the track forecast late in the period, including any potential
threat to the Baja California peninsula, is lower than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.3N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 104.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
Quoting 153. WalkingInTheSun:

Interesting thought, according to the above graph by Dr. Masters, is that we still have around 25 days yet before tropical cyclone activity probabilities settle back below what they normally are at mid-August. Something to think about, especially if this season were to be later in coming into play.

I also wonder something else.
Since this Atlantic season has seen the least activity since 1986, do we blame that on global warming; and, if so, what about if it had been higher than usual? (Heh), seems like a "heads I win, tails you lose" twist to it all, if so.


Global warming is happening. Not every strange thing the weather or climate does can be attributed to it.
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E
2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 1
Location: 17.3°N 104.4°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
Many models moving away from Japan



Quoting 161. Sfloridacat5:



My Grandfather lived in Idaho and he use to tell me stories about going to sleep at night with no snow on the ground and waking up in the morning with 3 feet of snow.

That would be pretty cool to see. It's happend to me before, but only about 8" the next morning.
I went to bed, but I kept looking out the window to see if it was snowing. When I fell a sleep it was still raining hard so I was bummed.
But when I woke up and looked out my window everything was covered by about 8" of snow (no school!!!)


This happened to my parents in February 1979 in Mt Vernon. There was a dusting the previous night and a huge dump in the early AM, so much the front door had to be forced open and the poodle went out and.. disappeared.
Standing on her hind legs she could just get her head above the 20" level. However the dusting fell on a 4" snow cover from previous storms. Not as impressive as going to bed with our typical winter gray-green landscape and waking up to white.
That was really mean, ricderr, lol. - Last year I went with the flow in my guesses - and lost! This year I decided to guess against the flow - and will loose even more, sigh. Only little comfort is to see that some famous members should be even more wrong than me :-P


lol.....i didn't post it to be mean....nor to make anyone look bad....it's just that some members were talking about it and it was a he said she said type deal....so i posted it...facts are facts are all.....

i post zero each year...one...i think it's funny....two.....if the great minds with all their money for research can't get it right....then how foolish are we to think we can get it right...and if we do....how much science really went into it....do i cheer for those that win.....of course....but most of us realize it's a best guess effort at most
18W/MH/P/C3


maybe a tropical storm by friday morning
Quoting 114. dabirds:

Guess Max missed my guess too, can't even remember for sure, but I'm high on the named for sure (but not as high as Pat) Sure not going to try digging it up. Think it was 11,5,2 but ...

Storms training from my W to NW, Columbia, MO to Quincy must be wet. In S C IL, 83 w/ a 62 dew pt, 29.88", light southerly winds.

I had 9-3-1 Today so far it is 81.9 outside, 43% RH, D.P. 57F, Go Dodgers.......lol
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
After several less active seasons... do we have any other evidence that the AMO has switched into its negative side?

Woman uses huge teddy bear as passenger in carpool lane
Hey Wash115, did your Bear escape, or is this one of its relatives.
Quoting 178. PedleyCA:


Woman uses huge teddy bear as passenger in carpool lane
Hey Wash115, did your Bear escape, or is this one of its relatives.


Must be tired from all that dancing...
Live severe storm chasing from SE KS. Brandon Ivey pro met chaser:
Live Video URL
Quoting PedleyCA:

Woman uses huge teddy bear as passenger in carpool lane
Hey Wash115, did your Bear escape, or is this one of its relatives.


I heard she would have never been pulled over if it weren't for the fact she was speeding.
Quoting 179. Dakster:



Must be tired from all that dancing...

Guess it is a good thing it wasn't in the left seat.....
Quoting 182. Sfloridacat5:



I heard she would have never been pulled over if it weren't for the fact she was speeding.
Well, you know that bear would be encouraging the speeding, not telling her to slow down.... :o)
97L is back!
Quoting 183. PedleyCA:


Guess it is a good thing it wasn't in the left seat.....


In D.C. she would have needed two bears...
Quoting 142. islander101010:

wonder what global warming might do to our tropical season? longer seasons yet with a break in the middle of it due to dry air? i know there is a planting season in between the rainy season in central america . somewhat like that.


Current projections indicate that there will be less Atlantic storms overall, but they will be generally stronger.
97L looks good
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, you know that bear would be encouraging the speeding, not telling her to slow down.... :o)


She should have quickly changed seats with the bear so the bear would have gotten the ticket.
Not surprised chasers in SE KS, that popped up quick and red. Can see the thunderheads to NW and W now. The cell that was SE of KC now moving in on Columbia, appears to be traveling more easterly than earlier ones, stays on that track may graze us later tonight. We beat the forecast high again, about 10th day in a row for that (86 vs 85). Pressure has dropped another .05" as it approaches, winds a little higher but still pretty light so far.

Looks like the 'birds blow in w/ the Santa Ana's Ped. Will be quite a change when hit StL if new forecast highs don't change. 90s to 60s . You'll see Waino & Lynn, Lackey & Miller here. Go Cards! Off to get some grass seed spread before the rain.
In D.C. she would have needed two bears...


how many carpool lanes do you have in alaska? :-)
Quoting 153. WalkingInTheSun:

Interesting thought, according to the above graph by Dr. Masters, is that we still have around 25 days yet before tropical cyclone activity probabilities settle back below what they normally are at mid-August. Something to think about, especially if this season were to be later in coming into play.

I also wonder something else.
Since this Atlantic season has seen the least activity since 1986, do we blame that on global warming; and, if so, what about if it had been higher than usual? (Heh), seems like a "heads I win, tails you lose" twist to it all, if so.


Direct attribution of weather phenomena to climate change is very difficult to do, as you're trying to link a short term event to a longer term trend. You typically need many such events to do so.

Any given hurricane season is determined primarily by the current conditions and parameters. Climate change can influence those conditions but it doesn't necessarily dictate them.

Now if you have something like 30 years of abnormally active or inactive seasons, then it is far more likely that there has been a significant change in long term climate patterns that is causing the abnormality. But direct attribution for any single season would be very difficult to establish.
Quoting 190. dabirds:


Looks like the 'birds blow in w/ the Santa Ana's Ped. Will be quite a change when hit StL if new forecast highs don't change. 90s to 60s . You'll see Waino & Lynn, Lackey & Miller here. Go Cards!

The heat Wave is in flip Flop mode, all kinds of 100's in the A.M. and none in the P.M. forecast for here, today was supposed to be 90 and it is 83.7, so they are way off. When does the series start. Wonder if it will be on TV here. I think the Dodgers are Direct TV, They used to be on a local channel. Time will tell on both. Heatwave is supposed to start Thursday but it looks kind of low to call it that (92-94) . Will be some good games whether
I get to watch or not and it doesn't look like it.
Quoting 178. PedleyCA:


Woman uses huge teddy bear as passenger in carpool lane
Hey Wash115, did your Bear escape, or is this one of its relatives.
The real one?.Pshhhhft.There are more than you know!.

haha.
From Last week! :)
9/26/14

9/25/14

9/23/14
NHC 97L INVEST 20141001 1800 395N 0613W

NHC 98L INVEST 20141001 1800 339N 0541W
Quoting 155. yoboi:




Just getting to the 1970's now and have over 500 failed predictions......Think I see a trend......


It's hard to take you seriously when you reject the fundamentals of modern physics and chemistry, and have demonstrated on more than one occasion that you lack the mathematical background to understand even basic statistics.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2014 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 19:12:05 N Lon : 139:41:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 981.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.2 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -29.2C Cloud Region Temp : -82.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 87km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.3 degrees
Wpac

Atlantic

18W/MH/P/C3
TXPQ21 KNES 012139
TCSWNP

A. 18W (PHANFONE)

B. 01/2032Z

C. 19.3N

D. 139.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HRS RESULTING
IN A MET OF 5.5 AND A PT OF 6.0. AT 2032Z, B EYE WAS EMBEDDED IN CMG AND
SURROUNDED BY CDG WHICH RESULTED IN AN INSTANTANEOUS DT OF 6.5 WITH NO
EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE DT CALCULATED HOURLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
ENDING AT 2032Z WAS 5.7. FT IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE DT, WHICH JUSTIFIES
BREAKING CONTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

Been awhile since we've seen one this nice in any basin.

Quoting 191. ricderr:

In D.C. she would have needed two bears...


how many carpool lanes do you have in alaska? :-)


Let me think about that for a second...

ZERO that I know of. Unless there is some sort of issue, we don't even have what you would call traffic in the largest city in the state.
Quoting 203. Dakster:



Let me think about that for a second...

ZERO that I know of. Unless there is some sort of issue, we don't even have what you would call traffic in the largest city in the state.

How Many Traffic Signals in Eagle River?
Quoting 202. MAweatherboy1:

Been awhile since we've seen one this nice in any basin.



One things for sure, that's no cat 1 typhoon. Looks like it'll be a high cat 4 or a cat 5 on the next update.
Quoting 204. PedleyCA:


How Many Traffic Signals in Eagle River?


More than you think, because there is a main drag or 'Old Glenn Highway' that has several on it... And then there is a loop road that has 4 not including the one on the Old Glenn...

If I had to guess a dozen - maybe less.
Quoting 202. MAweatherboy1:

Been awhile since we've seen one this nice in any basin.



Beginning to bomb out. Definitely has a true pinhole eye.



where did invest 98L come from? we do not have no yellow x with it..
maybe invest 99L COMING SOON! U SEE A SPIN SOUTH WEST OF INVEST 97L


Invest 97L
Last Updated Oct 1, 2014 18 GMT
Location 39.5 61.3W Movement NE
Wind 45 MPH

INVEST 98L
Quoting 188. SFLWeatherman:

97L looks good



Just me remember this right now? September 2011.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thu mb/c/c6/Unnamed_TS_2011.jpg/640px-Unnamed_TS_2011. jpg
Quoting 202. MAweatherboy1:

Been awhile since we've seen one this nice in any basin.



I don't think those living in the Mariana Islands fully realize how lucky they are. The storm fell apart on top of them unexpectedly; it could've just as easily begun its explosive intensification over top of them. It's probably a category 4 at the moment, and it could've easily hit as a typhoon yesterday had it not lost all convection.
Tornado hits the capital of Brazil, the city of Brasilia.
This is the fourth oficial tornado in Brazil in 1 week. We're on the first week of Spring.

Link

Link
Quoting 197. Xyrus2000:



It's hard to take you seriously when you reject the fundamentals of modern physics and chemistry, and have demonstrated on more than one occasion that you lack the mathematical background to understand even basic statistics.

I think you are missing her point. She is saying the predictions in the 1970's with the next ice Age and Global Cooling never came true. And they never did. The scientists were wrong on that one.
Could we have Fay and Gonzalo at the sane time. Nah. :)
I think you are missing her point. She is saying the predictions in the 1970's with the next ice Age and Global Cooling never came true. And they never did. The scientists were wrong on that one.


while i have to agree with your statement...i seem to recall that the scientists who favored that opinion were in the minority....something like 6 times as many scientists were thinking that we were warming....not the same as the agreement amongst the climate community today...we have to look at the facts of the situation as they are...not use what the media made to feed their advertising slots back in the '70's
219. SLU
Excerpt:

The Lesser Antilles typically see very few tropical cyclones after October 1, and I expect their hurricane season is over.

It never really started to be honest. One "junk" TS, very few healthy waves, dry air, droughts, SAL ....
Wow! How many here have actually been in a sandstorm before?

img src="">


I SEE FOUR SPINS HERE! u see a spin with a upper low in the northeast coast and 97L AND invest 98L something southwest of invest 97L TO
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:12 PM PDT on October 01, 2014
Clear
84.8 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 85 °F
Humidity: 43%
Dew Point: 60 °F

Wind: 10.0 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 29.71 in (Steady)
In the last two weeks on 3 days have been over 90.
That is about to come to an end, today was 85.7 here.


rack Questions: Japan Impact?

A bubble of high pressure sitting to the northeast of Phanfone will keep the cyclone on its west-northwestward to northwestward course over the next couple of days. Eventually, however, Phanfone should reach the western edge of that bubble -- and tropical cyclones often turn northward in those situations before eventually being forced northeastward by the prevailing upper-level westerlies, usually becoming post-tropical systems in the process.

However, if this bubble of high pressure stays relatively strong and the influence of the upper-level westerlies arrives later, Phanfone may not curve north and northeast as quickly. The major computer forecast models are not in good agreement on this issue, which becomes a critical question roughly 3 to 5 days from now.

As a result, there are several plausible scenarios:

- Phanfone curves sharply, passing south and east of mainland Japan and brushing the country with high waves and possibly a little bit of rain.

- Phanfone curves north a bit later, too late to miss Japan, and instead slams into heavily populated areas of central and eastern Japan, including Kyoto, Kobe, Osaka, Nagoya and Tokyo. These areas (the Kansai, Chubu and Kanto regions) have a combined population of 85 million.

- Phanfone waits much longer to recurve, taking it more toward Okinawa, before recurving over much of mainland Japan, starting with the island of Kyushu and western parts of Honshu and potentially spreading a swath of torrential rain northeastward across most of Japan's major cities.

Peak impacts would arrive in these areas Saturday through Monday, local time, if the second or third scenario above comes to pass.


Rainfall Threat

Even if the center of Phanfone passes south of the Japanese mainland, there's increasing concern about the threat of heavy rainfall from this storm.

The map above shows a computer model forecast for rainfall through Tuesday. The map gives a general idea of where heavy rainfall may fall, but it's important to bear in mind that the official track forecast may differ from the forecast from any individual computer forecast model.

Additionally, Japan's steep terrain often leads to large variations in local rainfall that often aren't captured by the global models, so the above map is only a general idea of where the heaviest rain may fall.

Some of the areas in Phanfone's path saw historic rainfall from the one-two punch of Tropical Storm Nakri and Typhoon Halong in August. The city of Kochi had over 61 inches of rain in August, its wettest month in records dating back to 1886. The rural hamlet of Shigeto in the mountains of Kochi Prefecture picked up 94.41 inches of rain, crushing its previous all-time record for any calendar month by nearly 40 inches.
Quoting 215. CumberlandPlateau:


I think you are missing her point. She is saying the predictions in the 1970's with the next ice Age and Global Cooling never came true. And they never did. The scientists were wrong on that one.


I'm not missing the point. The scientists never said any such thing. The media did. There were a couple of fringe papers that tried to show global cooling (primarily by two authors), and were summarily dismissed as not having enough evidence. Indeed, one of the authors themselves retracted their work later on. And that was out of the thousands of papers published during that era.

The first definitive work on greenhouse theory was published by Fourier in 1825. The first climate model and prediction of AGW was published in 1899 by Arrhenius (a.k.a the father of modern chemistry). AGW is not a "new" theory. It's been around for quite some time, and there is a considerable amount of research and evidence to back it up, including much of modern physics and chemistry.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical gale located about 350 miles south-southeast of
Halifax, Nova Scotia, is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
northeast of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to
remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation while this system
interacts with an upper-level low and a surface front during the
next couple of days. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A small area of low pressure located about 700 miles east-northeast
of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development of this system is not expected while it
remains over marginally warm waters through Thursday. This low is
moving rapidly toward the northeast and is expected to move over
much colder waters by Friday, ending its chance of development as a
tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

two yellow x soon for invest 97L AND INVEST 98L

Quoting 206. Dakster:



More than you think, because there is a main drag or 'Old Glenn Highway' that has several on it... And then there is a loop road that has 4 not including the one on the Old Glenn...

If I had to guess a dozen - maybe less.

My little ol' town in PA still doesn't have any traffic signals, and there are no plans to put on in any time soon. I am glad about that :D

Phanfone looks like a monster. Japan better keep a VERY close eye on it.
TWC just aired a commercial for a new show and it scared me :)
Quoting 230. WaterWitch11:

TWC just aired a commercial for a new show and it scared me :)
ITS GOING TO BE MTV SOON WITH ALL THE SHOWS there got now.. no more weather soon
Quoting 221. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow! How many here have actually been in a sandstorm before?



Was in one up by Bakersfield, Calif. in the early 1960's, this one looks a lot meaner.
Quoting 230. WaterWitch11:

TWC just aired a commercial for a new show and it scared me :)


Super Natural? "Where the wind blows.....". Alton, Illinois (which isn't too far from me) is one of the most haunted places in America. Spoooookyyyy!
NAM 84hr
It's early October and the only areas of interest are north of 35N. 'Tis the season.
While you all are talking about sandstorms and hurricanes, there's severe weather in the midwest. Not likely to reach me but there's some going on, including a couple tornado warnings in Missouri.
Quoting 226. Xyrus2000:



I'm not missing the point. The scientists never said any such thing. The media did. There were a couple of fringe papers that tried to show global cooling (primarily by two authors), and were summarily dismissed as not having enough evidence. Indeed, one of the authors themselves retracted their work later on. And that was out of the thousands of papers published during that era.

The first definitive work on greenhouse theory was published by Fourier in 1825. The first climate model and prediction of AGW was published in 1899 by Arrhenius (a.k.a the father of modern chemistry). AGW is not a "new" theory. It's been around for quite some time, and there is a considerable amount of research and evidence to back it up, including much of modern physics and chemistry.



I'm not disputing the overall science.....but wasn't it just 8 years or so ago that the prevailing thought was climate change meant more extreme and more frequent cyclones. And this idea was transmitted to the media.
Dr. Masters to his credit always reported some conflicting conclusions amongst peer-reviewed papers on this issue. Now, as this latest forecast hasn't come true for the target market maybe the marketing has changed, maybe. Statistically, it's not just 1 low ACE year(2014). It's 8 or so years now. Statistically 8 is a stronger sample size than 1 year.....but not as strong as a sample size of 30 years, 100 years.
Quoting 231. hurricanes2018:

ITS GOING TO BE MTV SOON WITH ALL THE SHOWS there got now.. no more weather soon


love twc...so i have to disagree. 24 hours of weather. gotta do something with all that time, right?
SAB just broke constraints for Phanfone, jumping from T4.0/65kt to possibly conservative T5.5/102kt.


Quoting 236. TimTheWxMan:

While you all are talking about sandstorms and hurricanes, there's severe weather in the midwest. Not likely to reach me but there's some going on, including a couple tornado warnings in Missouri.
Link

That little bow to the northwest was the first tornado warned storm. While it did produce a wall cloud near Ashland, no tornadoes reported. Same with the pair of storms west of Jefferson City (they were 2 supercells earlier).
Quoting 238. WaterWitch11:



love twc...so i have to disagree. 24 hours of weather. gotta do something with all that time, right?


The problem is that most of the shows on twc aren't even weather related. It's becoming more infotainment than weather.
Quoting 237. CosmicEvents:


I'm not disputing the overall science.....but wasn't it just 8 years or so ago that the prevailing thought was climate change meant more extreme and more frequent cyclones. And this idea was transmitted to the media.
Dr. Masters to his credit always reported some conflicting conclusions amongst peer-reviewed papers on this issue. Now, as this latest forecast hasn't come true for the target market maybe the marketing has changed, maybe. Statistically, it's not just 1 low ACE year(2014). It's 8 or so years now. Statistically 8 is a stronger sample size than 1 year.....but not as strong as a sample size of 30 years, 100 years.

Oh yeah!
I picked up and got hooked to TWC during the last days of it's golden era (in my opinion). The number of and times they would air the shows back then was tastefully done: I especially loved Storm Stories. and you can't forget Atmospheres with Jim Cantore and Mish Michaels. But it was the 04' 05' hurricane seasons that changed everything...

Although hyped or not, their hurricane landfall coverage I still watch:
Can't wait to see when a major is in the Gulf (just for the coverage).
Quoting 244. opal92nwf:

I picked up and got hooked to TWC during the last days of it's golden era (in my opinion). The number of and times they would air the shows back then was tastefully done: I especially loved Storm Stories. and you can't forget Atmospheres with Jim Cantore and Mish Michaels. But it was the 04' 05' hurricane seasons that changed everything...

Although hyped or not, their hurricane landfall coverage I still watch:
Can't wait to see when a major is in the Gulf (just for the coverage).


TWC was why I got into weather in the first place. In spite of going downhill since, they still provide the best severe weather and hurricane coverage. Watching for storms tomorrow though it may be a squall line.


Phanfone,

Quoting 221. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow! How many here have actually been in a sandstorm before?

img src="">


I have out in the western US. Utah/Arizona area... Not fun... Haboobs can be worse than a blinding snow storm. And they hurt too - sand blasting you...
Quoting 237. CosmicEvents:


I'm not disputing the overall science.....but wasn't it just 8 years or so ago that the prevailing thought was climate change meant more extreme and more frequent cyclones. And this idea was transmitted to the media.
Dr. Masters to his credit always reported some conflicting conclusions amongst peer-reviewed papers on this issue. Now, as this latest forecast hasn't come true for the target market maybe the marketing has changed, maybe. Statistically, it's not just 1 low ACE year(2014). It's 8 or so years now. Statistically 8 is a stronger sample size than 1 year.....but not as strong as a sample size of 30 years, 100 years.


No, that wasn't "the prevailing thought". There were a number of climate scientists who suggested post-2005 that the rapid warming we're seeing might induce more storms. There were also scientists who suggested warming might induce fewer storms overall, but more intense ones when they did occur. There was ample evidence at the time to support that contention, and that evidence still exists today.

Climate science is rapidly evolving, and ever changing in the face of new evidence. One wishing to discuss the issue--or argue against it--really needs to keep up with the credible research lest he or she fall behind...
Quoting 232. PedleyCA:



Was in one up by Bakersfield, Calif. in the early 1960's, this one looks a lot meaner.
It turned to night quickly.
Quoting 248. Neapolitan:



No, that wasn't "the prevailing thought". There were a number of climate scientists who suggested post-2005 that the rapid warming we're seeing might induce more storms. There were also scientists who suggested warming might induce fewer storms overall, but more intense ones when they did occur. There was ample evidence at the time to support that contention, and that evidence still exists today.

Climate science is rapidly evolving, and ever changing in the face of new evidence. One wishing to discuss the issue--or argue against it--really needs to keep up with the credible research lest he or she fall behind...

Oh but it was. If you're just talking about scientists high up on the totem pole, then you're probably right. But to say that this wasn't the overall consensus to, inside, and circulating through much of the media/public or what have you during that period, it just doesn't ring true.
Beautiful
Quoting 237. CosmicEvents:


I'm not disputing the overall science.....but wasn't it just 8 years or so ago that the prevailing thought was climate change meant more extreme and more frequent cyclones.


Climatological projections are for changes in tropical cyclone activity by the end of this century, not the end of this decade.

Most of the current research I've seen on the topic seems to favor that conditions across the Atlantic will become less favorable for storm formation. However, if a storm does form it will have more energy to draw upon. But again, this is projected for the end of the century. This also only describes the trends, not absolutes. You can still get years with 25 storms, they're just less likely to occur.

Quoting 237. CosmicEvents:
And this idea was transmitted to the media.

The media usually gets science wrong in one way or another. It's better to go to the source.

Quoting 237. CosmicEvents:
Dr. Masters to his credit always reported some conflicting conclusions amongst peer-reviewed papers on this issue.

There is still a lot of research going on in this area. Tropical storms are small short lived phenomena that are very sensitive to conditions. That makes predicting future climatological trends for them difficult. As new research is done and models improved, things can change. That's science.

Quoting 237. CosmicEvents:
Now, as this latest forecast hasn't come true for the target market maybe the marketing has changed, maybe. Statistically, it's not just 1 low ACE year(2014). It's 8 or so years now. Statistically 8 is a stronger sample size than 1 year.....but not as strong as a sample size of 30 years, 100 years.


Don't confuse weather and climate. The yearly forecast is weather, and historically hasn't had much skill. The climate projections are for 2100, and they aren't predicting numbers of storms.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
9:00 AM JST October 2 2014
===================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (945 hPa) located at 19.5N 139.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
375 NM from the center in north quadrant
270 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 22.0N 135.3E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS 24.9N 132.6E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Minami Daito Island waters
72 HRS 27.8N 130.7E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) South of Kyushu [Kagoshima Prefecture]
Quoting 251. SFLWeatherman:

Beautiful


Loading...Loading...Rapid strengthening in Process...
:-)
If there was no wind shear these two systems would be tropical cyclones by now.

Quoting 248. Neapolitan:



No, that wasn't "the prevailing thought". There were a number of climate scientists who suggested post-2005 that the rapid warming we're seeing might induce more storms. There were also scientists who suggested warming might induce fewer storms overall, but more intense ones when they did occur. There was ample evidence at the time to support that contention, and that evidence still exists today.

Climate science is rapidly evolving, and ever changing in the face of new evidence. One wishing to discuss the issue--or argue against it--really needs to keep up with the credible research lest he or she fall behind...

I admittadly don't keep up with the latest credible research as you do. I'm more "the public" who relies on Dr. Masters and others to give me an overall current status. And again...I credited Dr. Masters with presenting early on the conflicting conclusions behind the the faster and furiouser campaign, even though the headline of numerous blogs was more more absolute on the extreme weather effects.
.
.
I also appreciate Xyrus's response.
.
My overall take is that the science is settled, but the "effects of that science" is not settled as it references extreme weather, ever evolving as science does.
Wind shear levels have dropped in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico. We might see a spin-up somewhere in there. The only problem is, the air is a "bit" dry in those areas.
Still trying to find this post of mine. It shouldn't be hard as ricderr and stormwx went on frenzy when I called for 5 to 7 named storms the end of May however there are pages after pages to go thru.Infact Stormwx said he saved it as well as ricderr now they run and hide. I did come out with 8 3 1 then changed it the last week or 2 of May before June 1st. How TA13 calls this cheating is besides me as everyone has been chastising my forecast all summer now everyone suddenly forgets after they got led to the wood shed for a beating.
maybe invest 99L COMING SOON !! i see a nice spin southwest of invest 97L

McIDAS Infrared:

McIDAS, the "Man computer Interactive Data Access System", is a pioneering weather forecasting tool developed at the University of Wisconsin–Madison in the 1970s and used continually to this day. In its early incarnations it was widely used to generate graphics for television stations, but today is used primarily by the NOAA and related agencies. Users of the McIDAS system developed a similar version for microcomputers and sold by ColorGraphics Weather Systems that generated much of the computerized weather imagery seen on television in the US in the 1980s.



SSD MTSAT-FUNKTOP:

Multifunctional Transport Satellites (MTSAT) are a series of weather and aviation control satellites. They are geostationary satellites owned and operated by the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and provide coverage for the hemisphere centred on 140° East; this includes Japan and Australia who are the principal users of the satellite imagery that MTSAT provides. They replace the GMS-5 satellite, also known as Himawari 5 (“himawari” or “ひまわり” meaning “sunflower”). They can provide imagery in five wavelength bands — visible and four infrared, including the water vapour channel. The visible light camera has a resolution of 1 km; the infrared cameras have 4 km (resolution is lower away from the equator at 140° East). The spacecraft have a planned lifespan of five years. MTSAT-1 and 1R were built by Space Systems/Loral. MTSAT-2 was built by Mitsubishi.

GFS has 2 days of no rain for C & S FL before the storms roll in again come next Tuesday and some storms could be severe.



Quoting 259. StormTrackerScott:

Still trying to find this post of mine. It shouldn't be hard as ricderr and stormwx went on frenzy when I called for 5 to 7 named storms the end of May however there are pages after pages to go thru.Infact Stormwx said he saved it as well as ricderr now they run and hide. I did come out with 8 3 1 then changed it the last week or 2 of May before June 1st. How TA13 calls this cheating is besides me as everyone has been chastising my forecast all summer now everyone suddenly forgets after they got led to the wood shed for a beating.

My point is that bets for this season were due no later than May 15. Changing it after that time is unfair to those who followed Max's rules, and it defeats the purpose of trying your hand at long-range forecasting.

I'd also like to point out that I never called you out about your revised forecast--I actually found it reasonable--so don't group me under "everyone".

Quoting 373. StormTrackerScott:



Put me in for 8 3 1
Still digging I see. I left for work more than 8 hours ago and.....

Quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986. Two thumbs up for 'climate change'.
Quoting 265. StormHype:

Quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986. Two thumbs up for 'climate change'.


Climate has changed. Will always be changing...
Quoting 230. WaterWitch11:

TWC just aired a commercial for a new show and it scared me :)


Yup. Amused they are touting a show on psychics and super natural stuff. Funny these big media outlets will not touch anything to do with religion because they say it baseless in the eyes of science, but they will show stuff like this which ironically also has no basis in science. The real reason is politics.
Quoting 250. opal92nwf:


Oh but it was. If you're just talking about scientists high up on the totem pole, then you're probably right. But to say that this wasn't the overall consensus to, inside, and circulating through much of the media/public or what have you during that period, it just doesn't ring true.


The media acts as a interpreter to the public. That's where this disconnect is, the scientists publish their work, the media only interprets and transmits the sensationalist stories, the public thinks the scientists have said "More hurricanes are coming! Katrina's everywhere!"

People need to become their own consumers of science and not just consumers of media. Go beyond the media interpretation of it.

That why sites like skepticalscience are so great, they create a narrative explanation with citations and links to the published scientific discourse.
Quoting 266. yoboi:




Scientist have proven that they can NOT accurately predict hurricanes from year-to year......And you are bringing up end -of-the-century predictions.......SMH.......

Come on. If you're going to be a denier, at least be a good one. Predicting a general trend based on a sufficient dataset in relation to climate change is not equivalent to predicting the strength and/or track of an individual hurricane in an individual hurricane season.
Now that climate has changed I bet California will see more tropical cyclones than Florida will huh just a guess......I mean they pretty much did this year.....
272. yoboi
Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Come on. If you're going to be a denier, at least be a good one. Predicting a general trend based on a sufficient dataset in relation to climate change is not equivalent to predicting the strength and/or track of an individual hurricane in an individual hurricane season.



"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.


Link
Quoting 272. yoboi:




"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.


Link

Okay...?
spiral disk shape winds warping fast into the center, nice inflow.

Quoting 273. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Okay...?


Good luck...
Quoting 267. Dakster:



Climate has changed. Will always be changing...


Yes. With or without man, it will change, and it's not always for the worst like the media and fund seeking doom and gloomers have hyped for the last 8 years. Measuring, and studying "yes", it needs to be done. However, making 50-100 year predictions of sea level rises and claiming other prognostications as a done deal is total BS. It's fear mongering to influence the flow of money into self-serving interests. If NOAA can't get a hurricane season right 90 days out (i.e. 2013 .... total 180 degree bust) how can they even believe their own 50-100 year forecast have any more credibility than a random walk? They don't. They just hope media and politicians do.
Here you go Yoboi..from 2013 after Sandy which was influenced by climate change..

NOAA preseason outlook..

Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;

Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and

El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

“This year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa."
Quoting 276. StormHype:



Yes. With or without man, it will change, and it's not always for the worst like the media and fund seeking doom and gloomers have hyped for the last 8 years. Measuring, and studying "yes", it needs to be done. However, making 50-100 year predictions of sea level rises and claiming other prognostications as a done deal is total BS. It's fear mongering to influence the flow of money into self-serving interests. If NOAA can't get a hurricane season right 90 days out (i.e. 2013 .... total 180 degree bust) how can they even believe their own 50-100 year forecast have any more credibility than a random walk? They don't. They just hope media and politicians do.


It's not a forecast, its a statistical projection based on current trends and possible scenarios complete with confidence intervals. I mean, this is simple stuff, these aren't hard concepts to grasp. This is a perfect misrepresentation of how science works, basics statistics, and quantitative methodology with a hint of conspiracy theory about falsifying data for money...



have we run out of clouds in the caribbean?....no wonder the reef is dead.....we are seeing a change.....time to accept it.....the caribbean is about to become very dry....anyone living here disagree?
Quoting 278. Naga5000:



It's not a forecast, its a statistical projection based on current trends and possible scenarios complete with confidence intervals. I mean, this is simple stuff, these aren't hard concepts to grasp. This is a perfect misrepresentation of how science works, basics statistics, and quantitative methodology with a hint of conspiracy theory about falsifying data for money...






Exactly and I like that you include the emboldened phrase.
The 3z update from the JTWC brings Phanfone to 105kt/120mph, with a peak of 130kt/150mph forecast.

Quoting ncstorm:
Here you go Yoboi..from 2013 after Sandy which was influenced by climate change..

NOAA preseason outlook..

Three climate factors that strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:

A continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995;

Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; and

El Nio is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.

%u201CThis year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,%u201D said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA%u2019s Climate Prediction Center. %u201CThese conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic waters and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa."


No mention of Dry Air being a factor at all, even if favorable.

In other words, since 06', we have learned that there are soo many other factors that actually go into producing/squashing an active Atlantic Hurricane Season.
There's obviously no absolute certainly to any of this, but using all we know and we certainly do know an awful lot, we make very educated predictions. The fact that there are so many reluctant to agree is bewildering. The amount of people who simply think it's all just a conspiracy astounds me. FACTS FACTS FACTS. Why do we not believe what we know as such? The globe is cooling? Seriously? We have weather stations almost everywhere on this surface and below the surface, satellites, etc. It's just hard for me to conceptualize, that so many people simply believe what they want to believe and not a community of scientists who've trained for years and years to do specific research and analyze specific data. Don't listen to the media, any of it. Listen to and read science authored by scientists. Media tends to be a bit opinionated and everyone has an opinion. Listen to the logic and the reason.
284. yoboi
Quoting 283. GatorWX:

There's obviously no absolute certainly to any of this, but using all we know and we certainly do know an awful lot, we've made very educated predictions. The fact that there are so many reluctant to agree is bewildering. The amount of people who simply think it's all just a conspiracy astounds me. FACTS FACTS FACTS. Why do we not believe what we know as such? The globe is cooling? Seriously? We have weather stations almost everywhere on this surface and below the surface, satellites, etc. Seriously? It's just hard for me to conceptualize, that so many people simply believe what they want to believe and not a community of scientists who've trained for years and years to do specific research and analyze specific data.



Are you saying surface temps have been rising???
Those who are in complete denial need to show some class. There are these things called supercomputers, satellites, radiosondes, and Doppler radars that give us accurate measurements of the weather and forecasts as well as the concentration of gases and molecules in the atmosphere. If you don't have faith in these weather/climate instruments you don't have faith in science and then I ask why are you here? I wish before some of you talk shit about Climate Change you would actually take a tour to 1 of the 9 NCEP centers to see how hard forecasters work especially the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and maybe you will gain an appreciation and a totally new perspective of science in general. Sometimes I wish I could put the denialist all in a box and catapult them to Mars. I will be willing to teach the skeptics and those who do not know much about climate change, but I will not teach to stupidity and ignorance.
Quoting 276. StormHype:



Yes. With or without man, it will change, and it's not always for the worst like the media and fund seeking doom and gloomers have hyped for the last 8 years. Measuring, and studying "yes", it needs to be done. However, making 50-100 year predictions of sea level rises and claiming other prognostications as a done deal is total BS. It's fear mongering to influence the flow of money into self-serving interests. If NOAA can't get a hurricane season right 90 days out (i.e. 2013 .... total 180 degree bust) how can they even believe their own 50-100 year forecast have any more credibility than a random walk? They don't. They just hope media and politicians do.


I'm going to reference the statement you posted before this one first. First of all, now correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't there a difference between climate and weather? Last time I checked, climate are patterns of temperature and precipitation (and other factors) that are established over long periods of time. So, when you decide to compare a single hurricane season to an entire data set that was observed over a long period of time, say at the very least 30 years, doesn't it seem, well, dichotomous?

As for your comment above, do you think that it may just be possible that you are buying the other side of the hype? That maybe, just maybe, the side you've chosen, may have taken that stance because it helps their pockets? If you lived in a dome, and you burned fossil fuels and created all kinds of pollution, do you really believe that it wouldn't change the atmosphere of your bubble. Yes, climate change has occurred throughout geological history. There is absolutely no denying that fact. However, we are talking about the rate of change, and I'm not sure how you can not look at the start of the industrial era and note the rates of increase in temperature and other indicators and believe that we are not speeding up the process!
287. yoboi
Quoting 285. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Those who are in complete denial need to show some class. There are these things called supercomputers, satellites, radiosondes, and Doppler radars that give us accurate measurements of the weather and forecasts as well as the concentration of gases and molecules in the atmosphere. If you don't have faith in these weather/climate instruments you don't have faith in science and then I ask why are you here? I wish before some of you talk shit about Climate Change you would actually take a tour to 1 of the 9 NCEP centers to see how hard forecasters work especially the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and maybe you will gain an appreciation and a totally new perspective of science in general. Sometimes I wish I could put the denialist all in a box and catapult them to Mars. I will be willing to teach the skeptics and those who do not know much about climate change, but I will not teach to stupidity and ignorance.



I will go with the RSS data....
Quoting 278. Naga5000:



It's not a forecast, its a statistical projection based on current trends and possible scenarios complete with confidence intervals. I mean, this is simple stuff, these aren't hard concepts to grasp. This is a perfect misrepresentation of how science works, basics statistics, and quantitative methodology with a hint of conspiracy theory about falsifying data for money...





.
I and my heirs will pay at least 1 million present value dollars between now and 2100 to the insurance companies for the incrementally increased risk premiums. if current home insurance premium trends continue. The insurance companies have quantified the possible and in Geneva changed their confidence intervals over and beyond any statistical support. Turning possible into likely.
GT..I can't get a cellular signal or cable connection on Mars..

let me know if you need materials for your catapult machine though..I hear the company ACME is a good starting point..

291. flsky
Hey doc. i've been deployed to Mi by my employer. It's been pretty warm so far. Asking as a FL person, when should I expect the heavy-duty coldness to set in. Today was nice - hi 60s, low 70s, but yesterday was cold by my standards - mid-50s. When should I expect snow? - I'm in the Detroit area.
Quoting 256. CosmicEvents:
My overall take is that the science is settled, but the "effects of that science" is not settled as it references extreme weather, ever evolving as science does.


That's a pretty good summary. Creating a model to show how greenhouse gases affect global average temperature really doesn't require much more than some basic thermodynamics. High school level stuff really.

When people say the science on warming is settled, they're talking about the basic thermodynamics and chemistry that has been know for 100+ years and is used in numerous daily applications. The science community isn't debating whether or not warming is happening, it's an accepted fact. What isn't settled is what is going to happen as a result. That's a much more difficult problem to answer and is where the research is going.

It's not possible to know exactly of course, but as the science and models are improved we get an increasingly better of idea what is likely to happen. That's really all the projections are; high confidence likelihoods of what happens under different scenarios (high, mid, low emissions, for example).


MTSAT-1R channel, Wavenumber, Band correction coef.





I found a new avatar for Kori. :)


Quoting 265. StormHype:

Quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986. Two thumbs up for 'climate change'.


It really helps when you understand the difference between climate (long term trends) and weather (short term conditions). A hurricane season is weather. Thirty hurricane seasons is climate.
Yoboi..we might actually enjoy Mars..I hear there is life already found there..

This is what a pinhole eye really looks like (the term is thrown around way too frequently).

well as interesting as the blog is tonight work calls in the morning..

Night all..and stay classy WU

Quoting yoboi:



Scientist have proven that they can NOT accurately predict hurricanes from year-to year......And you are bringing up end -of-the-century predictions.......SMH.......


Really? So if I were to look back over the last 13 years or so and find that pre-seasonal forecasts for 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 2000 all generally verified within a reasonable margin and for the reasons stated, what would you say? And by your logic, why trust the National Hurricane Center? They've proven they can be just as wrong as pre-season forecasts. Why trust them? Why not just listen to the blog instead? Yea, the people at CSU, TSR, NOAA, et. al., don't always get their pre-seasonal predictions right, but look at the years they got wrong. Look at 2005, for example, did you see that coming? Did anyone?


Yatta yatta yatta.
The last time the Earth Warmed 5C it took 12,500 years.
Were on a path to do it in 300..with 150 of those years already behind us.

Enjoy your evening !!
Facts, logic, reason. Nuff said!
Clearing out...

Quoting 269. Naga5000:



The media acts as a interpreter to the public. That's where this disconnect is, the scientists publish their work, the media only interprets and transmits the sensationalist stories, the public thinks the scientists have said "More hurricanes are coming! Katrina's everywhere!"

People need to become their own consumers of science and not just consumers of media. Go beyond the media interpretation of it.

That why sites like skepticalscience are so great, they create a narrative explanation with citations and links to the published scientific discourse.

If people are looking strictly at the media to lead them they will be lead only one side of the story the story the media wants you to hear, so they can boost their ratings, when is the news not bias? Anyways, this is aside from the actual meteorologist giving the weather. Those who form their opinions strictly off the media are weak minded individuals it's like taking candy from a baby that is how easy they get suckered in and would believe any nonsense spewed. Seriously, reading scholarly journals from scientists and their pupils who go on these research and observation trips to the Arctic region and Antarctica where there is significant ice melt, environmental effects, and habitat changes are the best sources out there.


And then....



But GFS is continuing to dissipate this one rather quickly before landfall. I still think Japan is unfortunately in for quite a wallop with Phanfone.
Quoting 266. yoboi:




Scientist have proven that they can NOT accurately predict hurricanes from year-to year......And you are bringing up end -of-the-century predictions.......SMH.......


You have yet again proven that you don't know the difference between weather and climate. Hurricane prediction (annual event largely determined by short term weather conditions) has nothing to do with climate prediction (multi-decadal/multi-century projections of long term global and regional climate conditions).
Don't the deniers know how much they look like fools? Zero science, well,
Near zero and just hang on to small group of quacks. How can anyone listen to there tropical discussions when they turn nose to science. Grow up kids. Most of us are not interested in your opinion while very interested in scientific discussion on topic, just not your clearly political bias. It's to the point of evil because it's repeated to augnosiam.
98L
3,264 Days Without a Major Hurricane Strike
October 1st, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Hey fello bloggers I want you guys to check out this article that was posted today
All hope is not yet lost.....

It may be an illusion but it looks like the eye of Phanfone is jogging WSW.
Quoting 276. StormHype:



Yes. With or without man, it will change, and it's not always for the worst like the media and fund seeking doom and gloomers have hyped for the last 8 years.


Try 100 years. The first prediction of AGW was made back in the 1800's.

And no, climate destabilization (especially rapid destabilization) is never a good thing for the life forms that exist at that time. It results in extinction events. For those that come AFTER the change it's a good thing as it made room for the new species.

More recently in our history, regional climate changes were responsible for destroying several civilizations. In fact, at one point we almost died out entirely as a result of climate change (estimated human population less than 100,000).

Quoting 276. StormHype:
Measuring, and studying "yes", it needs to be done. However, making 50-100 year predictions of sea level rises and claiming other prognostications as a done deal is total BS.


It's really easy to call something BS out of ignorance, but just because you say it doesn't make it real. It's physics, chemistry, and math. Unless you have found a fundamental flaw that somehow undoes all the research of the past century or two on the subject (and you publish it), the scientists have a much more convincing case than you do.

Quoting 276. StormHype:
It's fear mongering to influence the flow of money into self-serving interests.


You're right. Climate scientists built a time machine to go back to the 1800's to establish a global climate conspiracy so that in the future they could all fight for funding scraps from underfunded science organizations instead of working for fossil fuel companies who bankroll them...wait...that doesn't make any sense.

Quoting 276. StormHype:
If NOAA can't get a hurricane season right 90 days out (i.e. 2013 .... total 180 degree bust) how can they even believe their own 50-100 year forecast have any more credibility than a random walk?


Because climate scientists understand the difference between a predicting a specific event and calculating a trend. But don't let you lack of math and science knowledge stop you. You're on a roll.

Quoting 276. StormHype:
They don't. They just hope media and politicians do.


The DoD, DoE, and DoA are some of the biggest consumers of climate related data and information. Are they part of the conspiracy too? For some reason it's hard to picture top military brass being in on this little tin-foil hat climate conspiracy you seem to fancy.
The NWS precipitation forecast during the upcoming frontal passage is way above all models. I wonder how it will turn out.

NWS forecast is the green line.

Tokyo bound?
97L looks like Fay.
Costa Rica is having their worst drought in 50 years. Millions lost in livestock & agriculture. They are also suffering water shortages, wildfires are a problem & lack of electricity due to 73% of their electricity supplied by hydroelectric.

Interesting the article notes that Costa Rico & United States meteorologist disagree on the definition of an El Nino. This article says El Nino has already been declared there.
Quoting 310. DonnieBwkGA:

It may be an illusion but it looks like the eye of Phanfone is jogging WSW.


Noticed that. No, it's no illusion. I'm thinking it's likely the beginning of an ewrc.
HWRF get crazy with Phanfone. Has a cat 4 landfall for Japan. HWRF hasn't done well lately & the storm pattern this year there doesn't support that.
What are water temps near Japan? North of Kyushu I'd expect them to have dropped quite a bit.
Cold Front clears FL. i wouldn't be surprised to see 50s in the interior of central FL. The water temps. should keep the coasts warmer.



Possibility for 40s in the Panhandle.





Some descrepency between the NAM and GFS. The NWS is calling for 60°F in Daytona Beach Sun. morning.
Quoting 311. Xyrus2000:



Not saying I blame you, but you sure are passionate! It really is a shame the media has divided our population to the extent it has. What happened to progress? I'm not liberal or a Democrat, but to disregard scientific research on not just this, but many issues is beyond unimaginable in this great country. We've done so many great things as a nation and now we've essentially stagnated. It's really unfortunate. Everything seems to be politically motivated anymore. People would rather listen to and believe a talking head fed by billions of dollars over a rather humble group of scientists.
WV

Quoting 311. Xyrus2000:



Try 100 years. The first prediction of AGW was made back in the 1800's.

And no, climate destabilization (especially rapid destabilization) is never a good thing for the life forms that exist at that time. It results in extinction events. For those that come AFTER the change it's a good thing as it made room for the new species.

More recently in our history, regional climate changes were responsible for destroying several civilizations. In fact, at one point we almost died out entirely as a result of climate change (estimated human population less than 100,000).



It's really easy to call something BS out of ignorance, but just because you say it doesn't make it real. It's physics, chemistry, and math. Unless you have found a fundamental flaw that somehow undoes all the research of the past century or two on the subject (and you publish it), the scientists have a much more convincing case than you do.



You're right. Climate scientists built a time machine to go back to the 1800's to establish a global climate conspiracy so that in the future they could all fight for funding scraps from underfunded science organizations instead of working for fossil fuel companies who bankroll them...wait...that doesn't make any sense.



Because climate scientists understand the difference between a predicting a specific event and calculating a trend. But don't let you lack of math and science knowledge stop you. You're on a roll.



The DoD, DoE, and DoA are some of the biggest consumers of climate related data and information. Are they part of the conspiracy too? For some reason it's hard to picture top military brass being in on this little tin-foil hat climate conspiracy you seem to fancy.
I live in Florida. I could not help but notice that you are pounding sand. I would advise you to stop and read a book. The ITCZ is running straight parallel. This means there a definite upwards trend happening very soon, which will induce much weather related phenomena for the afflicted areas. As for your Military thoughts, I would ask your chief.
Quoting 318. Skyepony:

Here is Phanfone on MIMIC.



Little red dot! Impressive!
Here's another SST anomaly map.

Seriously, what's up with the GFS? Is it schizophrenic or bipolar?

Make up you're damn mind as it pertains to the possible Western Caribbean storm, you piece of !@#$!

Odds still favor it forming rather than not, bu still....GEEZE, -___-
The GFS thinks the western Caribbean is in the eastern Pacific ;)
Quoting 322. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Cold Front clears FL. i wouldn't be surprised to see 50s in the interior of central FL. The water temps. should keep the coasts warmer.



Possibility for 40s in the Panhandle.





Some descrepency between the NAM and GFS. The NWS is calling for 60°F in Daytona Beach Sun. morning.


Should be quite a treat regardless of temps. The humidity is certainly going to drop considerably and that alone is going to feel great. Going to make for some nice rides on the bike, while it lasts and this time of year, it tends to be rather brief. A repeat of 2010 would be interesting. I'll still never forget it being very cold outside @ 3:00 in the afternoon and drizzling in January that year. Went inside and turned on TWC and saw it was 34 F outside. I lived in Sarasota then. Officially that day, the high was 44. Perhaps the sun came out later on, but it was the coldest 'day' I ever remember in FL. It being only 45-50 is cold for us. It got to 25 F in SRQ and 27 at my mom's in Englewood that night or the night prior and again another night or two. I started working on Boca Grande the following spring and most of the royal and other tropical palms were very burned. I also remember the impressive fish kill; snook were floating everywhere dead and dying, but you still weren't allowed to take them. What a waste! Love snook!
The GFS 00Z run has taken away the western Caribbean storm.


Quoting 329. DonnieBwkGA:

The GFS thinks the western Caribbean is in the eastern Pacific ;)


It's been alternating between the two basins. It continues to ultimately develop the storm, it's just been jumping around as it relates to where it begins to coalesce the area of low pressure.

When it develop it in the Eastern Pacific, it doesn't form squat in the Bay of Honduras, and vice-verse.

Pay attention to where it originates the system on each run.
Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Come on. If you're going to be a denier, at least be a good one. Predicting a general trend based on a sufficient dataset in relation to climate change is not equivalent to predicting the strength and/or track of an individual hurricane in an individual hurricane season.


Bro, when was the last time you were in Rood's blog? I know potatoes that can deny they are a starch better than him denying climate change.
Quoting 315. Skyepony:

Costa Rica is having their worst drought in 50 years. Millions lost in livestock & agriculture. They are also suffering water shortages, wildfires are a problem & lack of electricity due to 73% of their electricity supplied by hydroelectric.

Interesting the article notes that Costa Rico & United States meteorologist disagree on the definition of an El Nino. This article says El Nino has already been declared there.
As much as I love politics and hate it, Costa Rica has lost millions of tourist dollars due to Nafta /Cafta. When the signing went off, the other neighbors went to economic war by invading just like they are doing in the USA. Many years later it is so much more complicated. The gangs followed. If you had an organic farm there they might wander on over and just camp out with machine guns if you are lucky. The drought you mention might have something to do with a deal that someone made with China. Apparently they bought some very important mining interests in exchange for a soccer field. Since modern mining needs a lot of water, and can drain water in other areas, then the result would be the picture I paint.
Quoting 268. StormHype:



Yup. Amused they are touting a show on psychics and super natural stuff. Funny these big media outlets will not touch anything to do with religion because they say it baseless in the eyes of science, but they will show stuff like this which ironically also has no basis in science. The real reason is politics.


hmmm....kinda thought it had something to do with ratings but whatever. unless politics equals ratings???


Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E 11:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2014



You know your sleeping habits are out of whack when you're scheduled for a 1:00 PM shift, and in order to compensate for knowing you're not going to go to bed until 9:00 or 9:30 AM, you're forced to take nighttime flu medicine after your workout and get a few hours of sleep _beforehand_. And this used to not happen; it was always a cinch.

Today is gonna suck. >_>
Quoting 338. KoritheMan:

You know your sleeping habits are out of whack when you're scheduled for a 1:00 PM shift, and in order to compensate for knowing you're not going to go to bed until 9:00 or 9:30 AM, you're forced to take nighttime flu medicine after your workout and get a few hours of sleep _beforehand_. And this used to not happen; it was always a cinch.

Today is gonna suck. >_>


Dude, are you outta your mind, or what? You can't take that as a sedative.

Don't do it. Don't medicate yourself with something in thinking and hoping that it'll help put you to sleep.

A medication designed to battle the flu cannot and should not be used for that purpose.
If you're feeling perfectly fine, then you've got no business taking that nighttime flu medication...just looking out for ya.
If you want something that will actually help you out with your insomnia, then go see a physician who can actually prescribe you something for that very problem, just don't take matters into your own hands.
Quoting 339. ActiveEra2014:



Dude, are you outta your mind, or what? You can't take that as a sedative.

Don't do it. Don't medicate yourself with something in thinking and hoping that it'll help put you to sleep.

A medication designed to battle the flu cannot and should not be used for that purpose.


When I lack a clinical sleep aid, it'll have to suffice.

Everything carries a risk of dependency, but I should be fine since it's only for today.
Quoting 342. KoritheMan:



When I lack a clinical sleep aid, it'll have to suffice.

Everything carries a risk of dependency, but I should be fine since it's only for today.


Whatever, dude. Don't say I didn't warn you. My conscience is clean.

I'm off to bed....have a good night, Kori!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
15:00 PM JST October 2 2014
===================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (935 hPa) located at 19.7N 138.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
375 NM from the center in north quadrant
270 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 22.7N 134.8E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS 25.7N 132.6E - 100 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) Minami Daito Island waters
72 HRS 28.4N 131.4E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) South of Kyushu [Kagoshima Prefecture]


cooler weather coming soon
Here we go again! Cabo San Lucas mite get hit again geez!
Quoting 343. ActiveEra2014:



Whatever, dude. Don't say I didn't warn you. My conscience is clean.

I'm off to bed....have a good night, Kori!


Lol. That's pretty funny. Not sure why taking an otc flu should affect your conscience, but ok. It's better than heroin, Ambien, Xanax, etc. Medicines suck in general. I take a good, daily multi and that's it. Occasionally I'll take an asprin for pain if necessary, but we're talking 2-3 times/yr. Haven't always been that way ;) but glad I grew up. Unless I'm dying, I'm pretty reluctant to take anything. There's plenty of natural ways and one of them is likely to soon be available here in FL. Should be interesting. I get sick once every 3-5 years, so... Good genes maybe? My grandparents all lived til 86-93 as my paternal grandma is still chugging along. Medicines for her? Not much. It's an industry. Emphasize the last word of the previous statement.

Good food, coffee, red wine and an occasional 'smoke'; that's my medicine. Good bp, sleep good, healthy, happy. Works for me.
lack of moving water means expensive power bills for the ticos
trouble sleeping? exercise more.
Quoting 328. ActiveEra2014:

Seriously, what's up with the GFS? Is it schizophrenic or bipolar?

Make up you're damn mind as it pertains to the possible Western Caribbean storm, you piece of !@#$!

Odds still favor it forming rather than not, bu still....GEEZE, -___-


GFS is the Guessing Forecasting System.
Stress is the killer guys. If you eat right, exercise, get adequate sleep and don't pump yourself full of meds, you should be ok.

However, no matter what, stress will kill you. And kill you young.

Quoting 348. GatorWX:



Lol. That's pretty funny. Not sure why taking an otc flu should affect your conscience, but ok. It's better than heroin, Ambien, Xanax, etc. Medicines suck in general. I take a good, daily multi and that's it. Occasionally I'll take an asprin for pain if necessary, but we're talking 2-3 times/yr. Haven't always been that way ;) but glad I grew up. Unless I'm dying, I'm pretty reluctant to take anything. There's plenty of natural ways and one of them is likely to soon be available here in FL. Should be interesting. I get sick once every 3-5 years, so... Good genes maybe? My grandparents all lived til 86-93 as my paternal grandma is still chugging along. Medicines for her? Not much. It's an industry. Emphasize the last word of the previous statement.

Good food, coffee, red wine and an occasional 'smoke'; that's my medicine. Good bp, sleep good, healthy, happy. Works for me.
really has not been any scientific studies what the exposure to 24 hrs news does to people. some people it hurts more than others
Quoting 317. GatorWX:


EWRC should be a big eye.
Well..the news is just full of cheerful news..

off topic

According to ABC News this morning initially the Ebola patient in Dallas was turned away from Hospital and sent back out in the public even though he told staff he traveled to Africa..he returned back to the hospital 2 days later..so now over 12 people might have been exposed along with several Dallas public schools having been scrubbed down due to the 5 children included in the exposed group.

good thing is that people are infectious only when they start showing symptoms and none of the exposed people are showing any yet..

Enterovirus has claimed 4 lives as well..

wash your hands and try to avoid public hand shaking..

SN..if you haven't seen the movie Contagion you should to see how easily sickness is transferred to humans..

world wide connection gave the gw alarmist more to chew on.
Quoting KoritheMan:
You know your sleeping habits are out of whack when you're scheduled for a 1:00 PM shift, and in order to compensate for knowing you're not going to go to bed until 9:00 or 9:30 AM, you're forced to take nighttime flu medicine after your workout and get a few hours of sleep _beforehand_. And this used to not happen; it was always a cinch.

Today is gonna suck. >_>


Melatonin and benedryl does the trick
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
452 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ALZ011>015-017>050-030300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMB ERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH- FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION- MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
452 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 AM FRIDAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MILLPORT TO DOUBLE SPRINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12 NOON FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.

DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

$$
Quoting 355. ncstorm:

Well..the news is just full of cheerful news..

off topic

According to ABC News this morning initially the Ebola patient in Dallas was turned away from Hospital and sent back out in the public even though he told staff he traveled to Africa..he returned back to the hospital 2 days later..so now over 12 people might have been exposed along with several Dallas public schools having been scrubbed down due to the 5 children included in the exposed group.

good thing is that people are infectious only when they start showing symptoms and none of the exposed people are showing any yet..

Enterovirus has claimed 4 lives as well..

wash your hands and try to avoid public hand shaking..

SN..if you haven't seen the movie Contagion you should to see how easily sickness is transferred to humans..


I was listening to a report on ebola, and it seems the virus is tranferred only in bodily fluids..its not airborn...i was wondering if someone near by you..sneezed?....
ULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SIMON JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 106.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 330 miles
south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, is producing gale force
winds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low is
merging with a frontal system and is not expected to acquire
tropical cyclone characteristics. Little motion of this system is
expected during the next few days as it interacts with and becomes
absorbed by an upper-level low approaching from the northeast coast
of the United States. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. A small area of low pressure located about 840 miles northeast
of Bermuda is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast and
is producing disorganized showers. Tropical cyclone formation is not
anticipated due to strong upper-level winds and decreasing sea
surface temperatures.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
Excluding TD-16E, which obviously never got named, if Simon becomes a hurricane it'll be the 12th named storm to become a hurricane in a row in the EPAC -- coming in after Genevieve, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, and Rachel.
Quoting 350. islander101010:

trouble sleeping? exercise more.


I'm sure many on here need to take this advice.
{cnn}...........Should Americans worry about getting Ebola?

'It gets bad -- fast'

Because the early symptoms of Ebola can include abdominal pain, fever and vomiting -- ailments that also come with other illnesses -- there are concerns about how to distinguish between Ebola and, say, the flu.

But the answer is fairly simple.

"Ebola tends to progress much more quickly," CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Sanjay Gupta said. "It gets bad -- fast."

And once it gets bad, Ebola can bring on a host of ghastly symptoms -- including diarrhea and unexplained bruising and bleeding.

But Ebola is much harder to contract than the flu. The virus can only be spread through the bodily fluids of people who have active symptoms of the illness.
Quoting 364. StormTrackerScott:



I'm sure many on here need to take this advice.
LOL my dogs take care of My exercise,always wanting to go out to the park..well each walk is miles there and back..which for my health is great
Euro says we only get 2 days to dry out before the rain arrives again and stays put. Also day 10 on the Euro looks interesting maybe a Sub Tropical system trying to go near SE FL.



Rainy Season far from over here in FL so don't be fooled by 2 dry days.

Quoting 348. GatorWX:



Lol. That's pretty funny. Not sure why taking an otc flu should affect your conscience, but ok. It's better than heroin, Ambien, Xanax, etc. Medicines suck in general. I take a good, daily multi and that's it. Occasionally I'll take an asprin for pain if necessary, but we're talking 2-3 times/yr. Haven't always been that way ;) but glad I grew up. Unless I'm dying, I'm pretty reluctant to take anything. There's plenty of natural ways and one of them is likely to soon be available here in FL. Should be interesting. I get sick once every 3-5 years, so... Good genes maybe? My grandparents all lived til 86-93 as my paternal grandma is still chugging along. Medicines for her? Not much. It's an industry. Emphasize the last word of the previous statement.

Good food, coffee, red wine and an occasional 'smoke'; that's my medicine. Good bp, sleep good, healthy, happy. Works for me.


Are you still digging that hole for yourself.
always thought doctors earned too much. not so much now. they, the paramedics and the nurses will be be the first to take one for the team. my wife worked in health care 25 yrs it paid good but she brought home a mess of viruses
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:

Thanks Doc, When I rolled out my 2014 Hurricane Forecast several variables really stood out this year and I have them listed below. When I did research on this back in Spring I really thought that this years hurricane season was going to be a dud. Funny because at the time I took a lot of flack because of it and to be honest even Doc himself thought we would have atleast an average season. So as a result you can see where I was getting at this past May and as usual I put my money where my mouth is and came out on top. El-Nino I may have busted but everything else continued to fall into place to make my predictions accurate.

Factors of why we saw the season we did.

1. Sea Surface anomalies across the MDR remained below normal all year


2. SAL was in abundance all Season as well causing the atmosphere to remain very dry


3. Presence of shear was Basin wide.


4. As Doc mentioned himself vertical instability was a big issue


5. The MJO was stuck over in the E-Pac all season creating active conditions there while causing sinking air across our Basin



Umm..
We've had @ least 3 separate MJO pulses traverse the Atlantic in the past 90 days, the Eastern Pacific benefited from a favorable background state that's essentially acted to enhance the dynamical structure of the MJO.



BTW, the hurricane season isn't over yet, and my forecast I released on March 30th of 7-9 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, and 1-2 majors, w/ the "vast majority" of the ACE in the subtropics, while maintaining that AEWs would be stronger than normal this yr has verified quite nicely

Above normal eddy kinetic energy (in red)=stronger than normal AEWs....



My Hurricane ACE forecast may end up being pretty close, w/ 60-70% of normal ACE forecast coming out to be approximately 50-65 points. I would like a storm in the north-central Gulf of Mexico to give further verification, however I understood going into this season that forecasting activity in the Gulf of Mexico is a wildcard, w/ large variance noted among El Nino hurricane seasons...




Levi's Hurricane Season forecast from March 14th has also performed fairly well, especially in terms of ACE index forecast, which is more than likely going to end up closer to "reality" than my forecast...



You can also see using Levi's analysis of years that came off of extended periods w/o El Nino, while also utilizing the best analogs w/ respect to SSTs, Mean Sea Level Pressure, and the 500mb pattern for in & around N America in October, most of the activity was off the southeastern US & into the subtropical Atlantic, and three out of 5 of these years (1972, 1982, 1994) were also in the cold AMO, w/ the other 2 years (2002, 2009) being among the quietest in the most recent multidecadal active era that began in 1995...
Quoting 312. DonnieBwkGA:

The NWS precipitation forecast during the upcoming frontal passage is way above all models. I wonder how it will turn out.

NWS forecast is the green line.




Just an FYI QPF forecasting is EXTREMELY difficult and more often than not NWS gets it right over the models.
Great post Webber! Are you studying meteorology somewhere?
Quoting 375. tampabaymatt:



Come on Scott, please give it a rest. Enjoy the coming cold front. It's okay to be positive about FL weather for once instead of always focusing on the rain and heat.


I knew Scott would call for rain on October 7-8, that's when I want to photograph the lunar eclipse. No evidence of anything subtropical on the models.
For my area (Fort Myers) we only average 2.88" for October so I'm hoping we do a lot better than that.

Hoping we get a good soaking Saturday with the passing of the front. We have around 13" to make up for the year.
I know these two pictures I'm about to post are offense because
1 They're not showing warm temps and
2 it's not about Florida.

Quoting Webberweather53:


Umm..
We've had @ least 3 separate MJO pulses traverse the Atlantic in the past 90 days, the Eastern Pacific benefited from a favorable background state that's essentially acted to enhance the dynamical structure of the MJO.



BTW, the hurricane season isn't over yet, and my forecast I released on March 30th of 7-9 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, and 1-2 majors, w/ the "vast majority" of the ACE in the subtropics, while maintaining that AEWs would be stronger than normal this yr has verified quite nicely

Above normal eddy kinetic energy (in red)=stronger than normal AEWs....



My Hurricane ACE forecast may end up being pretty close, w/ 60-70% of normal ACE forecast coming out to be approximately 50-65 points. I would like a storm in the north-central Gulf of Mexico to give further verification, however I understood going into this season that forecasting activity in the Gulf of Mexico is a wildcard, w/ large variance noted among El Nino hurricane seasons...




Levi's Hurricane Season forecast from March 14th has also performed fairly well, especially in terms of ACE index forecast, which is more than likely going to end up closer to "reality" than my forecast...



You can also see using Levi's analysis of years that came off of extended periods w/o El Nino, while also utilizing the best analogs w/ respect to SSTs, Mean Sea Level Pressure, and the 500mb pattern for in & around N America in October, most of the activity was off the southeastern US & into the subtropical Atlantic, and three out of 5 of these years (1972, 1982, 1994) were also in the cold AMO, w/ the other 2 years (2002, 2009) being among the quietest in the most recent multidecadal active era that began in 1995...


Going out here on a limb, I think the 2015 Hurricane Season will be very similar to this season.
Quoting 373. StormTrackerScott:



We might get one more storm and that's a big IF. Yes we had 3 MJO's but much weaker compared to the E-Pac. Also all the other factors remained in place to shut down any MJO effects across our Basin. You can almost call our Basin the Dead Zone right now.


This claim is absolute garbage & I wonder if you even bothered to take a look @ the data, using RMM (which is known to underestimate the intensity of W hem MJO pulses thanks to OLR bias in the "wetter" Eastern Hemisphere, and is also the reason for the unrealistic secondary peak in activity in phases 4-5 (Maritime Continent).) when it had an amplitude >1 and comparing against daily Atlantic Hurricane ACE data, the only MJO phases w/ any activity whatsoever are phases 1-3, w/ phase 2 leading the way, as usual...
RMM MJO (1974-2012) & Atlantic Hurricane ACE


Phase 1: 1.8338 pts ACE
Phase 2: 9.2575 pts ACE
Phase 3: 2.2175 pts ACE
Phase 4: 0 pts ACE
Phase 5: 0 pts ACE
Phase 6: 0 pts ACE
Phase 7: 0 pts ACE
Phase 8: 0 pts ACE

RMM MJO June 1974-Present
Link
GEOS-5 intensified that line mid country a bit for this evening.



Quoting 372. StormTrackerScott:

Euro Ensemble mean for next Tuesday good agreement on a heavy rain event across FL come next Tuesday.

GEOS-5 keeps that to the east & spares us for a change.

Quoting 376. boltdwright:

Great post Webber! Are you studying meteorology somewhere?


Thanks, and yes I'm actually freshman at NC State pursuing Meteorology, however I have conducted my own research on the side (essentially teaching myself) for the past 4 years...
Just want to chime in here because I was just discussing this with a friend last night. The govt wants to say things like "we are equipped to deal with it in the US because we have very sophisticated medical services." As if they would readily acknowledge that they weren't equipped. Yes, it takes bodily fluid to spread but sweat is a bodily fluid. If this guy shook one person's hand at a truck stop in Dallas, imagine how far that could go. That is a worst case scenario but I'm wondering what Ace of an intellect allows a person to think it is fine to be flying people out of a hot zone at all?
Quoting 365. LargoFl:

{cnn}...........Should Americans worry about getting Ebola?

'It gets bad -- fast'

Because the early symptoms of Ebola can include abdominal pain, fever and vomiting -- ailments that also come with other illnesses -- there are concerns about how to distinguish between Ebola and, say, the flu.

But the answer is fairly simple.

"Ebola tends to progress much more quickly," CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Sanjay Gupta said. "It gets bad -- fast."

And once it gets bad, Ebola can bring on a host of ghastly symptoms -- including diarrhea and unexplained bruising and bleeding.

But Ebola is much harder to contract than the flu. The virus can only be spread through the bodily fluids of people who have active symptoms of the illness.

This is beautiful..

Well I'm off to go to a Doctor's appointment.Been feeling under the weather for a two days now and the home remedies are not working.
Quoting Webberweather53:


Thanks, and yes I'm actually freshman at NC State pursuing Meteorology, however I have conducted my own research on the side (essentially teaching myself) for the past 4 years...


Ahh...U guys put up a good fight against us Seminoles last week
Quoting 386. Webberweather53:



Thanks, and yes I'm actually freshman at NC State pursuing Meteorology, however I have conducted my own research on the side (essentially teaching myself) for the past 4 years...


Very nice! I wish you the best with your studies! You're very knowledgeable in the field. I am about to finish up my Masters in Meteorology at FSU. Defending my thesis in the spring!
Quoting 381. washingtonian115:

I know these two pictures I'm about to post are offense because
1 They're not showing warm temps and
2 it's not about Florida.


Your right, I'm highly offended. Dry air is a malfeasance. Had I the cash, I would buy several more cabins just to evade it.
Quoting 376. boltdwright:

Great post Webber! Are you studying meteorology somewhere?

Webber knows his stuff, especially about climate. You think his weather posts are great, listen to him when he talks about climate change. Very knowledgeable gentlemen snowlover123 Webberweather is, Bolt D. Wright. Thank you for complimenting him. I appreciate that.
Quoting 390. boltdwright:



Very nice! I wish you the best with your studies! You're very knowledgeable in the field. I am about to finish up my Masters in Meteorology at FSU. Defending my thesis in the spring!

Keep up the good work, Buddy Old Pal.
I have never posted about climate change, I’ll leave that to others that are better versed. I try to keep up with the science and have drawn my own conclusions. I am concerned about the warming trend. But I also know that the US, having peaked at CO2 emissions around 6 billion tons per year is trending lower and now closer to 5 billion tons. China crossed 4 billion tons around 2002 and today is close to 10 billion tons.

It seems to me that continuing to flog deniers with the science is a fruitless effort. Our focus should be on the emerging world, where the emissions are rising very rapidly.
Quoting 383. yankees440:



Going out here on a limb, I think the 2015 Hurricane Season will be very similar to this season.


Huge question marks are certainly in front us, esp. w/ the possibility of a double El Nino... It's worth mentioning that using extended ONI dating back to 1900, we are currently experiencing the longest stretch on record (26 years) between multi yr El Nino events. The next closest is (1915-1929). I've been trying to figure out what separates multi yr events from other El Ninos, and aside from having weaker 1st yr El Ninos (strong El Ninos tend to force a bounce-back La Nina response, which is related to the ferocity of the refracted near-equatorial westward propagation Rossby Waves that reflect at the eastern boundary region of the Pacific (South America) ) and , I also noticed that the water ~40N east of Asia & N America (within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension & Labrador Currents) is comparatively colder by an appreciable margin. The difference in North Pacific SSTs anomalies seem resemble the +PDO (i.e. multi yr El Ninos have stronger +PDO preceding them) suggesting that perhaps on inter-decadal/interannual timescales, the PDO may have an effect on the outcome of an ENSO event, however, as you approach temporal scales of 20-30 years, the correlation between PDO & ENSO becomes negligible at best.
(SST anomalies preceding multi yr El Ninos - "regular" El Ninos since 1950)
Quoting 325. Pallis1:

I live in Florida. I could not help but notice that you are pounding sand. I would advise you to stop and read a book.


I personally like "In This House We Obey The Laws Of Thermodynamics". I also like "Atmospheric Physics Is Not Magic", "Conservation of Energy: Why Energy Doesn't Just Disappear", and "Planck's Law: No Pirates Necessary!".

Quoting 325. Pallis1:
The ITCZ is running straight parallel. This means there a definite upwards trend happening very soon, which will induce much weather related phenomena for the afflicted areas.


Are you perhaps responding to someone else here? This seems to be a non-sequitur.

Quoting 325. Pallis1:
As for your Military thoughts, I would ask your chief.


Who exactly is my "chief"? Are you referring to Obama (who I didn't vote for)?

Military and intelligence agencies have been incorporating climatological results in their planning and analysis for decades. It's nothing new.
Good Morning. Clear as a bell in the Atlantic and a "go" for me on Saturday morning in the Florida Big Bend for a wade fishing trip with cool am temps and "smooth" inshore waters; coastal water SSTs still in the lower 80's. Us fisherman love that Fall bite as the Trout and Redfish start to fatten up in the shallows on Mullet before Winter:


Not surprisingly given the very small size of its original eye, Phanfone is in an EWRC this morning, with the new, larger eye easily visible in microwave imagery.



It probably won't strengthen much for most of today while this goes on. The question will be whether it has time to finish up the cycle or not. If so, it could peak in the neighborhood of 150kts. If not, the current 115kts, which may be generous, is likely to be close to the peak. Either way though it'll be a formidable storm that will come very close to, if not directly over Japan.
wow.....
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jeff9639, RastaSteve, MagicFan, StormTracker2K StormTrackerScott is still the number one poster on here when it comes to accuracy. It seems like whenever a Storm is developing, Jeff Scott sniffs it out. Great work Scott! And keep it up!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Clear as a bell in the Atlantic and a "go" for me on Saturday morning in the Florida Big Bend for a wade fishing trip with cool am temps and "smooth" inshore waters; coastal water SSTs still in the lower 80's. Us fisherman love that Fall bite as the Trout and Redfish start to fatten up in the shallows on Mullet before Winter:





You might want to keep a watch on your local forecast for Saturday morning.
GFS shows the frontal passage in the area Saturday morning.
This could cause a quick change in weather conditions on Saturday.

Funny how I get banned for trying to keep the blog on a positive note, and others are allowed to throw insults around like darts. Way to stay consistent mods.
Quoting 401. CumberlandPlateau:

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Jeff9639, RastaSteve, MagicFan, StormTracker2K StormTrackerScott is still the number one poster on here when it comes to accuracy. It seems like whenever a Storm is developing, Jeff Scott sniffs it out. Great work Scott! And keep it up!
I'm glad you remember names because I don't.
Quoting 404. washingtonian115:

I'm glad you remember names because I don't.

That is really creepy that he remembers old screen names and even their actual first names.
Posting model frames and spouting Tea is never a forecast.

Forecast are done in a timely manner, with meteorology worded thoughts, Air Data and other inputs to solute out a trend downstream in time.

Thanx



Oh Lookie, heres one.



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
423 am CDT Thursday Oct 2 2014

Short term...
active weather pattern is in the process of commencing. Upper level
trough is currently racing eastward across the rockie mountains.
Meanwhile...copious moisture has been surging into the area with middle
to upper 70 dewpoints now in place. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will begin to break out across the County Warning Area today...likely
middle morning and Onward. Expecting spacial coverage of them to be
quite limited without much upper level forcing in place just yet.
The main show comes in tonight at surface pressures begin to fall and
instability increases from middle level cooling. Although there/S still
some timing differences between GFS and European model (ecmwf)...with the latter
being the slower of the two by 3-6 hours. The actual will probably
be something in between with the most intense storms passing across
the County Warning Area from early to late morning as the cold front moves in. Model
soundings indicate ample instability but lack appreciable wind/shear
intensity for severe development. It appears that 500mb winds barely
reach 40 knots. Thats not to say there won't be strong storms with
gusts into the 40 miles per hour range and there will likely be plenty of
lightning moving through. Just not looking like much severe.

Rain chances will then quickly taper off on the back side Friday
afternoon and evening...with most precipitation exiting the coastal waters
by midnight.

Long term...
should be rain free for the rest of the weekend as the trough swings
through and high pressure builds in. Post frontal cooler air will
drop temperatures substantially Saturday and Saturday night with the coldest
temperatures we've seen since last Spring headed our way. The latest
forecast will show highs struggling to reach middle 70s on Sat and temperatures
falling into the upper 45s that that night. In general...the GFS was
slightly warmer than this and European model (ecmwf)/met were quite a few degrees
cooler. The official forecast is a blend of the two.

The weather is finally set to turn autumnal across the UK over the next few days with an area of low pressure and cold front working its way down across us. Should bring some fresher, cooler air behind it, whilst also producing gales and giving up to 20-40mm of rain in some places.

Today I felt the back of my neck burning up as I was walking home, certainly not something I expect in October!
Quoting 404. washingtonian115:

I'm glad you remember names because I don't.

Many bloggers have more than one handle, and it's perfectly allowed. Take Caleb. He has three active accounts. The current one he uses, and then the following two below:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/CalebDancemastah /archive.html

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/GTcooliebai/arch ive.html
gee mexico better start preps Now huh..almost in the same spot as the last one hit..........
Quoting 402. Sfloridacat5:




You might want to keep a watch on your local forecast for Saturday morning.
GFS shows the frontal passage in the area Saturday morning.
This could cause a quick change in weather conditions on Saturday.


yes it just may be one rainy stormy day when that cold front hits this warm moist air here.
Posting model frames and spouting Tea is never a forecast.

spewed oj over that one........
Quoting 411. ricderr:

Posting model frames and spouting Tea is never a forecast.

spewed oj over that one........

OJ with Vodka or just OJ ric? LOL
Quoting 408. CumberlandPlateau:


Many bloggers have more than one handle, and it's perfectly allowed. Take Caleb. He has three active accounts. The current one he uses, and then the following two below:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/CalebDancemastah /archive.html

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/GTcooliebai/arch ive.html


And your previous handles?
Sunday, Oct. 5

going to get stormy in places friday...stay alert and safe folks...............................
OJ with Vodka or just OJ ric? LOL

straight oj......i don't drink
Morning, all!

Largo, what's the latest on our Western Carib storm?

is the GFS back to developing it in your basin, or....?
Quoting 392. CumberlandPlateau:


Webber knows his stuff, especially about climate. You think his weather posts are great, listen to him when he talks about climate change. Very knowledgeable gentlemen snowlover123 Webberweather is, Bolt D. Wright. Thank you for complimenting him. I appreciate that.


Not really, he thinks he does, but he relies a lot on unpublished blog science or published science that isn't part of the discourse in the field....

To the untrained eye, it sure is a good facsimile. But what do I know, I'm just in a discipline that studies knowledge production...
about ebola.......from cnn........................And by 'bodily fluids,' you mean?

Blood, sweat, feces, vomit, semen and spit. Basically any kind of fluid that comes from the body. People in West Africa are avoiding hugs and handshakes because the virus can be spread through the sweat on someone's hand.

The uninfected person would have to have a break in the skin of their hand that would allow entry of the virus, CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta says. But "we all have minor breaks in our skin. And there is a possibility that some of the virus can be transmitted that way."
Quoting LargoFl:
going to get stormy in places friday...stay alert and safe folks...............................


Today is going to be active across the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley Region.
Quoting 417. ActiveEra2014:

Morning, all!

Largo, what's the latest on our Western Carib storm?

is the GFS back to developing it in your basin, or....?

LOL. Have you seen the 12 day GFS. Developing a 955mb low over Miami. Like that's gonna happen, Janiel. Good to see you back, Buddy!! ^_^
Quoting 419. Naga5000:



Not really, he thinks he does, but he relies a lot on unpublished blog science or published science that isn't part of the discourse in the field....

To the untrained eye, it sure is a good facsimile. But what do I know, I'm just in a discipline that studies knowledge production...

You study sociology, Naga. Far cry from Climate Science.
Quoting 423. CumberlandPlateau:


You study sociology, Naga. Far cry from Climate Science.


So about those past handles....
If your worried about EBOLA ask yourself this.

Do I have a fever?

Have I been around anyone who is infected?

Have I traveled thru West Africa lately?

Stop watching FOX (Scare me to Death) FAUX NEWS
The liberal zealots on this forum this morning are absolutely, positively nauseating.

I'll come back when Jeffrey posts his new blog.

Deuces!
Afterall, this is wunderground,

Not GLP...

Back to you guy's in da studio...



Quoting 372. StormTrackerScott:

Euro Ensemble mean for next Tuesday good agreement on a heavy rain event across FL come next Tuesday.




Other models have it waiting until next Thursday as high pressure should control us. Plus it's all associated with another front that should also clear us out in conjunction with the subtropical jet.
Quoting 426. ActiveEra2014:

The liberal zealots on this forum this morning are absolutely, positively nauseating.

I'll come back when Jeffrey posts his new blog.

Deuces!


Makes me sick, I tell ya.
Ominous.

Now that I've posted all these great images, I'm sure the Doc will be on soon!!!
"Gee"
Quoting 433. Grothar:

Now that I've posted all these great images, I'm sure the Doc will be on soon!!!
\\

Like clockwork, my friend, =)
dr m will be on when he is ready
I all so like too point out over the year that's this blog has this went down hills and it looks like it keeps on going down hill sooner or later it may get so bad that a few blogers may go too other site but I don't think where at that point yet but I think a few are getting vary close in doing so


what ever happen too the good old lazy days we used too have on this blog
Quoting 432. Grothar:






That is one beautiful developing storm. Fun to watch it grow. Here's hoping it swings out to sea.
Quoting 439. LongIslandBeaches:



That is one beautiful developing storm. Fun to watch it grow. Here's hoping it swings out to sea.


the models keep switching back and forth, but it does look like it will impact Japan.
Question for the blog based on something Dr. Masters wrote:

All other variables constant, is it more dangerous for a storm to move quickly through an area (like the GFS predicts) or for a storm to move slowly by (like the European predicts)?
Largo and Cat; you are both correct on the potential Sat am forecast for the Big Bend. My Buds told me it was a calm forecast for the weekend but they are thinking today and tomorrow. Sat am conditions will depend on the timing of the frontal forecast and the current one for Sat is windy and choppy conditions. In my experience, the exact timing of the frontal passages up here are sometime accelerated a little bit timing wise so it will depend on whether the front clears through early enough on Friday evening into Saturday morning before the winds whip around to the NW.

I fish in protected waters (with a forest line just to the North) and the past several years have been hit or miss. Sometimes a chop is forecast, I cancel the 2 hour drive down to the coast to my spot, and I get a report that it was beautiful. Other times I have driven down, with a good forecast trying to beat the front, and the front gets there early and chops the water up.

Either way, I enjoy the drive down in the early am and "see" the Gulf about an hour into the drive to Apalachicola ...........If it is bad conditions, I turn around and hit the McDonald's for an egg mcmuffin and go home..................... :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 419. Naga5000:



Not really, he thinks he does, but he relies a lot on unpublished blog science or published science that isn't part of the discourse in the field....

To the untrained eye, it sure is a good facsimile. But what do I know, I'm just in a discipline that studies knowledge production...


Right... I think I do...
Quoting 419. Naga5000:



Not really, he thinks he does, but he relies a lot on unpublished blog science or published science that isn't part of the discourse in the field....

To the untrained eye, it sure is a good facsimile. But what do I know, I'm just in a discipline that studies knowledge production...


I saw this one coming, knew you couldn't possibly pass up an opportunity to attack me
Quoting 445. Webberweather53:



I saw this one coming, knew you couldn't possibly pass up an opportunity to attack me


Not attacking you, stating simple facts. You use bad sources often when discussing climate, don't understand what discourse is and how knowledge is produced, and don't understand methodology. It's quite obvious in your arguments. You will learn by the time you get to grad school.

I have no issue with you, other than you pretending that you know more than the publishing scientists in the field and trying to base your false expertise on the backs of bad blog science and one off publications that never become part of the accepted discourse. I think the issue is you just don't agree with how knowledge is produced in the field and you think there is bias everywhere except your sources....it's really nothing personal.


Quoting 445. Webberweather53:



I saw this one coming, knew you couldn't possibly pass up an opportunity to attack me


Attack you? Quite the contrary! You think that your verbosity and jargon make you look any smarter than what you are?

Think again, pal.

If anything, it does quite the opposite.

Stop sugar coating and beating your posts around the bush. When you reply to someone's post on this blog, be concise, short and sweet.

Trust me, that'll make you look a lot more intelligent to the eyes of many of the bloggers who blog in here on a daily basis.

Dissertation-long posts, combined with endless graphs and charts only serve to hurt you in the long haul!
Quoting 446. Naga5000:



Not attacking you, stating simple facts. You use bad sources often when discussing climate, don't understand what discourse is and how knowledge is produced, and don't understand methodology. It's quite obvious in your arguments. You will learn by the time you get to grad school.





You tell him, Naga. I wonder if he's familiar with the Bolean search techniques...probably not.

You're in grad school? I graduated with my M.Ed back in April. I begin my Ed.D in January, God willing.
Quoting 446. Naga5000:



Not attacking you, stating simple facts. You use bad sources often when discussing climate, don't understand what discourse is and how knowledge is produced, and don't understand methodology. It's quite obvious in your arguments. You will learn by the time you get to grad school.

I have no issue with you, other than you pretending that you know more than the publishing scientists in the field and trying to base your false expertise on the backs of bad blog science and one off publications that never become part of the accepted discourse. I think the issue is you just don't agree with how knowledge is produced in the field and you think there is bias everywhere except your sources....it's really nothing personal.




The irony in your statements above is astounding...
Quoting 447. ActiveEra2014:



Attack you? Quite the contrary! You think that your verbosity and jargon make you look any smarter than what you are?

Think again, pal.

If anything, it does quite the opposite.

Stop sugar coating and beating your posts around the bush. When you reply to someone's post on this blog, be concise, short and sweet.

Trust me, that'll make you looks a lot more intelligent to the eyes of many of the bloggers who log in here on a daily basis.

Dissertation-long posts, combined with endless graphs and charts only serve to hurt you in the long haul!

I produce long posts for the purpose of teaching & showing bloggers the data & information I viewed as is when I do make claims or present correlations to certain variables, and contrarily, in the field of weather forecasting, looking @ as much data as possible will only serve to your benefit, I learned that lesson last hurricane season...
Quoting 425. Patrap:

If your worried about EBOLA ask yourself this.

Do I have a fever?

Have I been around anyone who is infected?

Have I traveled thru West Africa lately?

Stop watching FOX (Scare me to Death) FAUX NEWS


While I agree with you Patrap... I may not be able to answer some of those questions accurately. How would I know if I was around someone that was infected. Yesterday I ran into several sick people. Now I didn't get close enough to them to exchange bodily fluids and they didn't "cough" so I am not worried about it.
UK on course for driest September since records began in 1910
This month is set to be the driest September since records began in 1910, according to Met Office figures.......................... This September follows on from the eighth wettest August on record and comes in a generally very wet year - this January to August is the wettest such period in the records, mainly as a result of the very wet start to the year and the wettest winter on record, meaning that water levels are not a concern at this point.

Link
After a summer of cooking heat, this feels so great right now, the coolest and driest air since April.

Fair

66°F

19°C

Humidity40%
Wind SpeedNW 7 mph
Barometer29.93 in (1013.4 mb)
Dewpoint41°F (5°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 4 Oct 7:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Quoting 451. ColoradoBob1:

UK on course for driest September since records began in 1910
This month is set to be the driest September since records began in 1910, according to Met Office figures.......................... This September follows on from the eighth wettest August on record and comes in a generally very wet year - this January to August is the wettest such period in the records, mainly as a result of the very wet start to the year and the wettest winter on record, meaning that water levels are not a concern at this point.

Link


I can't imagine having the wettest year on record here. The wettest year on record here is 104.18 inches, that would be hard to beat.