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QuikSCAT's Replacement, the RapidScat Ocean Wind Sensor, Installed on Space Station

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:17 PM GMT on September 30, 2014

In November 2009, one of the greatest success stories in the history of satellite meteorology came to an end when the venerable QuikSCAT satellite failed. Launched in 1999, the QuikSCAT satellite became one of the most useful and controversial meteorological satellites ever to orbit the Earth. It carried a scatterometer--a radar instrument that can measure near-surface wind speed and direction over the ocean. Forecasters world-wide came to rely on QuikSCAT wind data to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. Originally expected to last just 2 - 3 years, QuikSCAT made it past ten, a testament to the skill of the engineers that designed the satellite. A QuikSCAT replacement called ISS-RapidScat was funded in 2012 and built in just 18 months. RapidScat was successfully launched on September 20, 2014 on a SpaceX Dragon cargo spacecraft, which docked last week with the International Space Station (ISS.) This morning, RapidScat was plucked out of the Dragon and install it on the Space Station. The heaters have been turned on, and full activation of RapidScat is expected on Wednesday. In a clever reuse of hardware originally built to test parts of NASA's QuikScat satellite, RapidScat cost NASA just $30 million--80% lower than if the instrument had been built new.


Figure 1. Members of the Robotics Flight Control team at NASA and CSA (Canadian Space Agency) sent commands from their ground control center to the ISS to move the robots Canadarm2 and Dextre to install RapidScat on the Space Station on Tuesday, September 30, 2014. The white cylinder is the SpaceX Dragon, docked at the ISS. Thanks go to NASA/CSA's Kamran Bahrami for correcting me on where the commands to install RapidScat originated from. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.

What RapidScat will do
ISS-RapidScat is a radar scatterometer designed to sense near-surface winds over the ocean. The instrument sends a pulse of 13.4 gigahertz microwaves towards the Earth’s surface and measures the intensity of the return pulse that reflects back from the surface. In general, strong radar return signals represent rough surfaces, while weak radar return signals represent smooth surfaces. Stronger winds produce larger waves and therefore stronger radar return signals. The return signal also tells scientists the direction of the wind, since waves line up in the same direction the wind is blowing. The ISS orbit takes the space station between 51.6°N - 51.6°S latitude, and RapidScat will not be able to "see" ocean winds at high latitudes beyond 57°. QuikSCAT measured winds in a swath 1,800 km wide centered on the satellite ground track, but RapidScat's swath will be only 900 km wide, since it is orbiting at a lower altitude (375 - 435 km high versus 800 km for QuikSCAT.) The instrument will be able to "see" with a resolution of up to 12.5 km (7.8 miles.) It completes 15.51 orbits per day, and revisits the same part of the ocean beneath it once every two days. This compares with QuikSCAT, which covered 93% of Earth's surface in 24 hours. The advertised accuracy of RapidScat winds: for wind speeds 7 to 45 miles per hour (3 to 20 meters per second), an accuracy of about 4.5 miles per hour (2 meters per second); for wind speeds of 45 to 70 miles per hour (20 to 30 meters per second), an accuracy within 10 percent; for wind direction, an accuracy of 20 degrees. Precipitation generally degrades the wind measurement accuracy, and accuracy is also reduced at the edge of the swath. Useful data from RapidScat will likely not be available for several months, to allow time for the scientists to validate and calibrate the data being taken. RapidScat's lifetime will be relatively short--just a two-year mission is planned. Scatterometer data is extremely valuable for many aspects of hurricane forecasting, providing early detection of surface circulations in developing tropical depressions, and helping define gale (34 kts) and storm-force (50 kts) wind radii. The information on wind radii from scatterometers is especially important for tropical storms and hurricanes outside the range of aircraft reconnaissance flights conducted in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, and for the regions where there are no reconnaissance flights (Central Pacific, Western Pacific, and Indian Ocean). Accurate wind radii are critical to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO) watch and warning process, since they affect the size of tropical storm and hurricane watch and warning areas. Between 2003 and 2006, QuikSCAT data were used at NHC 17% of the time to determine the wind radii, 21% of the time for center fixing, and 62% of the time for storm intensity estimates.


Figure 2. Artist's rendering of NASA's ISS-RapidScat instrument (inset), which was sent to the International Space Station in September, 2014 to measure ocean surface wind speed and direction and help improve weather forecasts, including hurricane monitoring. It was installed on the end of the station's Columbus laboratory on September 30. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/JSC

Alternatives to RapidScat
There are two alternatives to RapidScat available, but neither are as good. There's the European ASCAT satellite, launched in 2007. ASCAT can measure global wind speed and direction twice per day. However, ASCAT sees two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap, and I find it frustrating to use ASCAT to monitor tropical storms, since the passes miss the center of circulation of a storm of interest more than half the time. On the plus side, ASCAT has the advantage that the data is not adversely affected by rain, unlike RapidScat. The other main alternative, the OSCAT instrument, which was sent into orbit on September 23, 2009, on the ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) Oceansat-2 satellite, suffered an irrecoverable instrument failure on 20 February 2014.The other option is the Windsat instrument aboard the Coriolis satellite (launched in 2003), which measures wind speed and wind direction using a different technique. Evaluation of these data at NHC and NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) shown the winds to be unreliable in and around tropical storms.

Related info
QuikSCAT, 1999 - 2009: R.I.P., my November 24, 2009, blog post.
Giving thanks to the Hurricane Hunters and QuikSCAT scientists, my November 21, 2007 post.
Challenging Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT numbers, my July 4, 2007 blog post.
2007 NOAA QuikSCAT user impact study.


Video 1. ‪RapidScat: NASA's Newest Wind Watcher‬

Quiet in the Atlantic
An area of low pressure (Invest 97L) a few hundred miles north-northwest of Bermuda is under high wind shear and is not likely to develop as it heads north and then north-northeast out to sea. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day odds of development near 0%. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the UKMET model is predicting development of a tropical wave on Sunday in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands from a tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa on Saturday morning. The GFS and European models give some lukewarm support to this idea. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Eastern Atlantic will bring high wind shear to the region early next week, making developing difficult.

Eastern Pacific's Rachel weakening; new tropical disturbance 90E developing
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depresion Rachel has weakened to 35 mph sustained winds, and will move little this week and dissipate without affecting any land areas.

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) was located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico on Tuesday morning, and was headed west-northwest near 10 mph. This disturbance has good support from all three of our top tropical cyclone genesis models to develop this week. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 90%, respectively. 90E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico throughout the week. So far, though, 90E's heavy rains have remained offshore, as seen on satellite loops.

Tropical Storm Phanfone a potential threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Phanfone passed through the Northern Mariana Islands with 50 mph sustained winds on Tuesday morning, and is expected to intensify into a major typhoon, possibly a super typhoon, late in the week. The 00Z Tuesday runs of the GFS and European models show the storm will recurve to the northeast very close to the coast of Japan this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. masters.
Thanks Doc!
Phanfone

Nice Dr. M!

Link

I do see now that the lakes I am looking at in the middle of the state in Red for low water levels, are actually surrounded by Blue...high flow flooded areas.
Why are they so red!? they should be at least green.
The Ocklawaha lakes just refuse to rise.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Doc !
Our first front will be arriving Saturday afternoon/evening. Woohoo!!! I

I believe dewpoints will be sinking into the 40's.
M 4.1 - 7km SE of Harper, Kansas
PAGER - GREENShakeMap - VDYFI? - V
Time
2014-09-30 07:55:04 UTC-07:00
Location
37.239°N 97.967°W
Depth
5.6km



Eastern Pacific's Rachel weakening; new tropical disturbance 90E developing
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depresion Rachel has weakened to 35 mph sustained winds, and will move little this week and dissipate without affecting any land areas.

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) was located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico on Tuesday morning, and was headed west-northwest near 10 mph. This disturbance has good support from all three of our top tropical cyclone genesis models to develop this week. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 90%, respectively. 90E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico throughout the week. So far, though, 90E's heavy rains have remained offshore, as seen on satellite loops.

we need to watch 90E

Quoting biff4ugo:
Nice Dr. M!

Link

I do see now that the lakes I am looking at in the middle of the state in Red for low water levels, are actually surrounded by Blue...high flow flooded areas.
Why are they so red!? they should be at least green.
The Ocklawaha lakes just refuse to rise.


I was checking out that site and the majority of the state has "normal" water flow in the streams/rivers.
$30 Mil is a great price tag, assuming that it works... 2 -3 years should give us plenty of verifiable data and hopefully we are working on a longer term replacement.. particularly in light of the increased probability of CONUS storm threats.
Took a walk on the beach (NW FL) yesterday and had this pleasant surprise.. but then got drenched for 20 minutes.. love the South!

Thanks Dr. Can't wait to see some images!

Thanks Doc.
This season is making last season look active....not even a blob to drool over.....really pathetic for storm chasers and the like....very disappointing...can't believe how quiet it is....not that I wish cast for death and destruction but someone def hit the off switch once again this season...HAARP ???
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.................
Thanks doc, cloudless sky in Wilmington, that brings me back
Quoting 13. GatorWX:

Thanks Dr. Can't wait to see some images!




How are storms still pushing into Tampa Bay? This shows dry air in place. I don't get it.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


How are storms still pushing into Tampa Bay? This shows dry air in place. I don't get it.


Showers not as widespread today, flooding less of a concern. Maybe we'll dry out :o)

Thanks Doc !
Quoting 18. tampabaymatt:



How are storms still pushing into Tampa Bay? This shows dry air in place. I don't get it.


Look at Saturday Night this is a 10 degree drop from the 06Z GFS run. 55 in Orlando is pretty cool for the first week of October.

Quoting 19. RainySeason:



Showers not as widespread today, flooding less of a concern. Maybe we'll dry out :o)




Were still cooking the atmosphere. Dewpoint 77 temp 84 right now.
Drier air is making its way south, finally.
Thanks Dr.  That informative post on the details of the inner workings of the new satellite, and the background information, is awesome.  Thanks for the detailed post.................Bloggers on here have been posting Ascat passes for several years now and looks like we have a nice alternative for the next few seasons without the "cut in half" circulation imaging based on the Ascat orbit relative to many Atlantic-Caribbean Basin storms.
With our first front of the Fall season pushing into FL and thru we should see one more tropical system form in the Western Caribbean.

Quoting 23. RainySeason:

Drier air is making its way south, finally.



Aloft. PWAT's in excess of 2". Very high for Late September early October but that will change come Saturday.

Halfway down the state, just another halfway to go. Already much cooler in NFL.

nice lunch time read
good news on install and warm up RapidScat
added info to have again
will general public will have access
or is this just for noaa to have
If ya look just west/northwest of tampa you see an interesting swirl, and when you look north/northeast of jax you see another swirl.

Link
Quoting 29. RainySeason:

If ya look just west/northwest of tampa you see an interesting swirl, and when you look north/northeast of jax you see another swirl.

Link
swirls everywhere
Quoting 19. RainySeason:



Showers not as widespread today, flooding less of a concern. Maybe we'll dry out :o)




Not here in Tampa as scattered showers keep endlessly rolling in from the Gulf. I must not know how to read a water vapor image as I swear it shows drier air in place.
Quoting 25. StormTrackerScott:

With our first front of the Fall season pushing into FL and thru we should see one more tropical system form in the Western Caribbean.




Not going to happen.....wishcasting is over....as is this lame season....sorry
hr 84
987 mb
fall storm entering the mid grt lakes regions



Quoting 28. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice lunch time read
good news on install and warm up RapidScat
added info to have again
will general public will have access
or is this just for noaa to have

Here's the JPL/NASA Missions Rapidscat page link Link



Quoting 15. toddbizz:

This season is making last season look active....not even a blob to drool over.....really pathetic for storm chasers and the like....very disappointing...can't believe how quiet it is....not that I wish cast for death and destruction but someone def hit the off switch once again this season...HAARP ???
perhaps the active atlantic years are over,its happened before many times
from the central florida hurricane blog...this may explain it better............................................ It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
ED
The real test for the end of the current active period will probably come in the next La Nina year (whenever that occurs)..............If we see lower numbers over the next few seasons and experience the same in a La Nina year, or two, then you could probably safely assume that the active phase has probably ended.
Quoting 34. toddbizz:



Not going to happen.....wishcasting is over....as is this lame season....sorry


October is the month where eyes turn to the Caribbean.

12Z GFS
Another Canyon Lake, Texas image from the flood of 2002.
The level of the lake was more than 10ft. higher than the height of the spillway. This caused historic down stream flooding.

Quoting 18. tampabaymatt:



How are storms still pushing into Tampa Bay? This shows dry air in place. I don't get it.


WV can be misleading sometimes. There's still a front draped across the state with a small surface low in Apalachicola Bay. I'm down south of you in Englewood (near Charlotte/Sarasota County border). I'm sitting @ 87 F, 75% RH, 79 F DP, 29.86 IN.



It's certainly drier overall compared to yesterday, but still unstable enough to produce thunderstorms. The difference today is there isn't excessive cloud cover, so may see some stronger, albeit much more isolated, thunderstorms today. I would imagine the eastern half of the the lower 2/3 of the peninsula will end up with the most rainfall, but certainly the wcoast isn't out of the woods. Until that stationary front gets ferried away by the approaching deep layered trough, we'll continue to get rain.

Quoting 40. LargoFl:

from the central florida hurricane blog...this may explain it better............................................ It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
ED

So this helps....what a bummer....wish I lived in Guam or the Philippines....now that's what I call active....
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:



October is the month where eyes turn to the Caribbean.

12Z GFS



I'd love to eat my own words....but I'm just over it....last 3-4 years the Atlantic season nothing but....ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


October is the month where eyes turn to the Caribbean.

12Z GFS


Oh wow indeed October is the month to watch to our south. But at 384 hours out we have as much of a chance of hitting the Fantasy 5 lotto tonight than that actually occuring.
Quoting 45. toddbizz:


So this helps....what a bummer....wish I lived in Guam or the Philippines....now that's what I call active....

actually though..most of us who may live in a hurricane danger zone..the inactive years are what we hope for..bring them on quickly.
Quoting 47. RainySeason:



Oh wow indeed October is the month to watch to our south. But at 384 hours out we have as much of a chance of hitting the Fantasy 5 lotto tonight than that actually occuring.
I see this is oct 16th..yesterday gfs had it there oct 14th...so it keep pushing back timewise..which makes it suspect then again..for florida we always pay attention to October and its surprise storms.
Quoting 18. tampabaymatt:



How are storms still pushing into Tampa Bay? This shows dry air in place. I don't get it.


That image was out of date. There is a pocket of moister air.

Quoting 50. MahFL:



That image was out of date. There is a pocket of moister air.


Also the sat pics usually only show one level of the atmosphere, other layers could be more moist.
Quoting 49. LargoFl:

I see thyis is oct 16th..yesterday gfs had it there oct 14th...so it keep pushing back timewise..which makes it suspect then again..for florida we always pay attention to October and its surprise storms.
there could be two 3 apart
Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there could be two 3 apart
yeah keeper i always stay alert in october.
Quoting toddbizz:


I'd love to eat my own words....but I'm just over it....last 3-4 years the Atlantic season nothing but....ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ


Yeah, I've got my Crow thawing out for the end of the season. A while back I told Taz we'd see 3-5 named storms for the rest of the season (Sept - Nov). We've only had 1 named storm so far.
So it doesn't look good for me right now.

Skyepony - Funny that you and I were just talking about scat satellites yesterday...

Thanks for that update Dr. Masters.
gee the pacific NW states really get some HUGE monster storms out there huh...............................
I'm not expecting much rain down here with this westerly flow.
An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the shower
activity has changed little in organization during the past several
hours, environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical
depression to form tomorrow or Thursday while the system moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
I live in Tallahassee and the last hurricane to cause havoc here (not including the Tropical Storm Faye deluge of 24 inches of rain a few years ago) was Kate in 1985 which was a late-November storm on November 21st at landfall. Came ashore at Mexico Beach as a weak Cat 2 (100 mph) but Tally was on the dirty side and trees fell everywhere and parts of Tally out of power for a week. Always the possibility for formation of a few late season storms so I would not wrap the season up just yet....................................Kate originated from a "late" wave that started getting a groove on near Puerto Rico.

It ain't officially over until November 30th.

Oh no! It's backkkkk. The GFS dropped it yesterday but it's back again. That October 16th Hurricane and it's right back over South Florida where it was before. At least I have plenty of time to gas up my car and buy my water.
Quoting 57. LargoFl:

gee the pacific NW states really get some HUGE monster storms out there huh...............................


Yes we do. Some of them derive energy from the remnants of west Pac typhoons. Google "Columbus Day Storm" for a description of the most epic one.
Quoting 52. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there could be two 3 apart


It's deja vu all over again, in the immortal words of the great philosopher, Yogi Berra.
Quoting 60. weathermanwannabe:

I live in Tallahassee and the last hurricane to cause havoc here (not including the Tropical Storm Faye deluge of 24 inches of rain a few years ago) was Kate in 1985 which was a late-November storm on November 21st at landfall. Came ashore at Mexico Beach as a weak Cat 2 (100 mph) but Tally was on the dirty side and trees fell everywhere and parts of Tally out of power for a week. Always the possibility for formation of a few late season storms so I would not wrap the season up just yet....................................Kate originated from a "late" wave that started getting a groove on near Puerto Rico.

It ain't officially over until November 30th.
yes thats true, we still have several months to go yet.
ok now Gem has the Low way down by central america that gfs puts by miami later on..............
Quoting 49. LargoFl:

I see this is oct 16th..yesterday gfs had it there oct 14th...so it keep pushing back timewise..which makes it suspect then again..for florida we always pay attention to October and its surprise storms.


When the GFS keeps pushing out you know it is bogus. It did it at the beginning of the season as well. I wish the model only went out 7 days. It would eliminate the phantom systems.


no way its the GFS playing game again with them fake hurricane off the coast!
Quoting 66. jrweatherman:



When the GFS keeps pushing out you know it is bogus. It did it at the beginning of the season as well. I wish the model only went out 7 days. It would eliminate the phantom systems.
thats a good idea
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Rachel, located several hundred miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of low pressure continues a few hundred
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the shower
activity has changed little in organization during the past several
hours, environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical
depression to form tomorrow or Thursday while the system moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Quoting 68. LargoFl:

thats a good idea


Getting tired of all this rain? Over here in Oldsmar it seems to never end. We've been hit by several rounds of quick heavy rains today. This is getting ridiculous. Hopefully we'll dry out over the weekend.
They took the floater off Phanfone?



Anyway, coming together, quickly. Either Japan, S Korea or e China is in for a typhoon strike it appears. GFS takes it up the spine of Japan presently.
It is too early to determine whether the active era has ended or not. We need to wait for a trend to be established. If next year and 2016 are as quiet as the past two years have been, then the discussion can be brought up. Otherwise, quiet years in the otherwise active era are not uncommon.
Quoting 71. jrweatherman:



Getting tired of all this rain? Over here in Oldsmar it seems to never end. We've been hit by several rounds of quick heavy rains today. This is getting ridiculous. Hopefully we'll dry out over the weekend.
oh yeah we need days to dry the ground off...perhaps this weekend.........yep i get the rains too off and on..more thick clouds out in the gulf again..probably go on thru the evening here by us.
Quoting 66. jrweatherman:



When the GFS keeps pushing out you know it is bogus. It did it at the beginning of the season as well. I wish the model only went out 7 days. It would eliminate the phantom systems.



Where's the fun in that ..... without the GFS ghost storms ,this season would have been even more boring !

there would be no moaning or groaning about how bad the GFS is and no comedy moments of false Cat 5 storms getting people all in a twist ..... I am a sick person
Quoting jrweatherman:


When the GFS keeps pushing out you know it is bogus. It did it at the beginning of the season as well. I wish the model only went out 7 days. It would eliminate the phantom systems.


Remember the 3 weeks in a row the GFS showed a GOM system at the end of its run. It kept pushing back the time line everyday.
Then a couple weeks ago the GFS switched to a Caribbean system at the end of its run. Again, it just backs up the time line.
Now, the GFS is showing a Florida system at the end of its run.

If you watch the GFS, it starts to freak out and do weird stuff once it gets beyond the 200 hours mark.
I don't remember the GFS having issues like this in previous years.
Recap of the SPX-4 Dragon launch a few days ago.

Dry weather in week to 10 days for most the US, except for those canadians. FL should dry out nicely and hopefully start the dry season.

Quoting 74. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is too early to determine whether the active era has ended or not. We need to wait for a trend to be established. If next year and 2016 are as quiet as the past two years have been, then the discussion can be brought up. Otherwise, quiet years in the otherwise active era are not uncommon.


Hurricane forecast map for next 22 years.


Quoting 76. VR46L:




Where's the fun in that ..... without the GFS ghost storms ,this season would have been even more boring !

there would be no moaning or groaning about how bad the GFS is and no comedy moments of false Cat 5 storms getting people all in a twist ..... I am a sick person


I guess it would take some fun out of the blog. I ignore any model run past 7 days (and I'm probably 3 days too long). However, if it keeps the blog entertained then have at it:) One day it just might come true.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,
A new source of info is always a good thing.....
Quoting Grothar:


Hurricane forecast map for next 22 years.






doom!!
Mumbai, India (Santacruz weather station) set a new monthly record for maximum temperature for September when the temperature reached 37.0 degrees C on the 29th. The previous record was 36.4 C on 23rd Sep, 1972.
Quoting 65. LargoFl:

ok now Gem has the Low way down by central america that gfs puts by miami later on..............
Two years before Tampa was hit , they had a bad hurricane...From the last blog...

IV. In October, a major hurricane, likely a Category 5, moved through the Caribbean Sea. This Great Havana Hurricane struck western Cuba on 10 October. It hit the Florida Keys on 11 October, destroying the old Key West lighthouse and Fort Zachary Taylor. The hurricane then headed northward, and on 13 October hit Tampa Bay as a major hurricane. As it approached, it sucked the water out of the bay, causing the Manatee River to be so low that people walked horses across it. The hurricane moved across Florida, and remained inland over Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina. It moved up the Chesapeake Bay, causing extensive damage through Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania. It caused around 163 deaths and damage throughout the areas it affected.

Great Havana Hurricane of 1846)
This is a good article. Click here for more information.
1846 San Francisco de Borja hurricane Category 5 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
1846 hurricane Havana, Cuba damage.PNG
Damage in Havana, Cuba succeeding the hurricane
Formed 5 October 1846
Dissipated 14 October 1846
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure 938 mbar (hPa); 27.7 inHg
Fatalities at least 164 direct.
Damage $338,000 (1846 USD)
Areas affected Cuba, Florida, Georgia, Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., Pennsylvania, Atlantic Canada
Part of the 1846 Atlantic hurricane season

The 1846 San Francisco de Borja hurricane (also known as the Great Havana hurricane of 1846) was the most intense tropical cyclone in recorded history for 78 years and the first known Category 5-strength hurricane to strike Cuba. The first indications of the formation of a disturbance were first noted on 5 October in the Caribbean Sea, but little else was known until the storm approached Cuba on 10 October. There, it brought extreme winds and the lowest known atmospheric pressure of the time – 938 mbar (27.70 inHg) – a record which remained unbroken until the development of a later cyclone in 1924. It soon curved toward Florida, where it maintained its intensity, continuing to rapidly hasten northward along the East Coast of the United States to New England. It entered an extratropical transition while situated over New York on 13 October, producing intense Category 2-force winds and unusually little precipitation. Eventually, the gale dissipated over the Canadian Maritimes the following day as a markedly weaker storm.

In Cuba, the storm caused hundreds of deaths, capsized dozens of ships, obliterated buildings, uprooted trees, and ruined crops. Many towns were wholly destroyed or flattened and never recovered, while others disappeared entirely. Damage in the United States was considerably better-chronicled despite being less severe. In Key West, widespread destruction was noted, with 40 deaths, many vessels rendered unfit, and widespread structural damage, with several buildings swept off of their foundations and hundreds of others flattened. Few supplies arrived in the following days and relief efforts were gradual, with few resources within the town's vicinity. Along other sections of the southeastern coast, copious rainfall and moderate winds impacted agriculture, shipping, and residences. As it tracked along the Middle-Atlantic coast, similar effects were reported: there, the gale inundated many areas, impeded communications, destroyed railroads and canals, and flattened structures. Despite extensive damage, only two deaths were recorded outside Cuba and Florida. Along its entire track, the hurricane caused $338,000 in losses and at least 164 deaths....
87. N3EG
Quoting 57. LargoFl:

gee the pacific NW states really get some HUGE monster storms out there huh...............................

Yeah, tell me about it. Our fall rainy season started about two weeks ago with rain and the usual abrupt 15 degree drop in high temperatures. Normally it waits until one or two weeks into October.
Quoting 80. Grothar:



Hurricane forecast map for next 22 years.





And hopefully we will all be around to see if that verifies out for the 22 years.
Quoting 87. N3EG:


Yeah, tell me about it. Our fall rainy season started about two weeks ago with rain and the usual abrupt 15 degree drop in high temperatures. Normally it waits until one or two weeks into October.
I must say..the sheer size of your storms is amazing,stay safe over there.
The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake in the world.

Watch it dry up.
Quoting 86. hydrus:

Two years before Tampa was hit , they had a bad hurricane...From the last blog...

IV. In October, a major hurricane, likely a Category 5, moved through the Caribbean Sea. This Great Havana Hurricane struck western Cuba on 10 October. It hit the Florida Keys on 11 October, destroying the old Key West lighthouse and Fort Zachary Taylor. The hurricane then headed northward, and on 13 October hit Tampa Bay as a major hurricane. As it approached, it sucked the water out of the bay, causing the Manatee River to be so low that people walked horses across it. The hurricane moved across Florida, and remained inland over Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina. It moved up the Chesapeake Bay, causing extensive damage through Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania. It caused around 163 deaths and damage throughout the areas it affected.

Great Havana Hurricane of 1846)
This is a good article. Click here for more information.
1846 San Francisco de Borja hurricane Category 5 major hurricane (SSHWS/NWS)
1846 hurricane Havana, Cuba damage.PNG
Damage in Havana, Cuba succeeding the hurricane
Formed 5 October 1846
Dissipated 14 October 1846
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure 938 mbar (hPa); 27.7 inHg
Fatalities at least 164 direct.
Damage $338,000 (1846 USD)
Areas affected Cuba, Florida, Georgia, Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, Washington D.C., Pennsylvania, Atlantic Canada
Part of the 1846 Atlantic hurricane season

The 1846 San Francisco de Borja hurricane (also known as the Great Havana hurricane of 1846) was the most intense tropical cyclone in recorded history for 78 years and the first known Category 5-strength hurricane to strike Cuba. The first indications of the formation of a disturbance were first noted on 5 October in the Caribbean Sea, but little else was known until the storm approached Cuba on 10 October. There, it brought extreme winds and the lowest known atmospheric pressure of the time – 938 mbar (27.70 inHg) – a record which remained unbroken until the development of a later cyclone in 1924. It soon curved toward Florida, where it maintained its intensity, continuing to rapidly hasten northward along the East Coast of the United States to New England. It entered an extratropical transition while situated over New York on 13 October, producing intense Category 2-force winds and unusually little precipitation. Eventually, the gale dissipated over the Canadian Maritimes the following day as a markedly weaker storm.

In Cuba, the storm caused hundreds of deaths, capsized dozens of ships, obliterated buildings, uprooted trees, and ruined crops. Many towns were wholly destroyed or flattened and never recovered, while others disappeared entirely. Damage in the United States was considerably better-chronicled despite being less severe. In Key West, widespread destruction was noted, with 40 deaths, many vessels rendered unfit, and widespread structural damage, with several buildings swept off of their foundations and hundreds of others flattened. Few supplies arrived in the following days and relief efforts were gradual, with few resources within the town's vicinity. Along other sections of the southeastern coast, copious rainfall and moderate winds impacted agriculture, shipping, and residences. As it tracked along the Middle-Atlantic coast, similar effects were reported: there, the gale inundated many areas, impeded communications, destroyed railroads and canals, and flattened structures. Despite extensive damage, only two deaths were recorded outside Cuba and Florida. Along its entire track, the hurricane caused $338,000 in losses and at least 164 deaths....
that 1846 hurricane cut my county in half!!..can you believe that..and hit with a 15 foot storm surge..my god..if that happens today..Billions in damage and probably many many deaths...geez.
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:



October is the month where eyes turn to the Caribbean.

12Z GFS



Not a chance this forms Scott. This is the problem with the GFS this year. It did the same in previous runs but if you notice the storm was in a similar position on an earlier valid date. I'll take notice when I see an actual disturbance develop and within the 120 hour time window on the GFS.

This is the area we should look entering October, but as models have shown ALL summer they cannot be trusted unless we have a concrete circulation.
Quoting 90. ColoradoBob1:
The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake in the world.

Watch it dry up.


The root cause was human intervention.
Quoting 90. ColoradoBob1:

The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake in the world.

Watch it dry up.
yes i read that ..goes to show what happens when man fools around and changes things.
95. N3EG
Quoting 89. LargoFl:

I must say..the sheer size of your storms is amazing,stay safe over there.

They lose a little punch when they cross the Coast Range to Eugene/Portland/Longview, but when they hit the coast they often have hurricane force winds. One 3000 foot hill we often visit has permanently bent trees on top. It's no Mt. Washington, but still no fun in the winter.
MAJOR FLORIDA PENINSULA HURRICANES SINCE 1845

Oct 1846 / cat-4. Key West; Tampa Bay to Cedar Key (917 mb @ Key West; poss cat-5)
Sep 1848 / cat 3. Tampa Bay (est. 945 mb)
Aug 1871 / cat-3. Palm Beach to Ft Pierce (955 mb)
Oct 1873 / cat-3. Ft Myers/Naples (959 mb)
Aug 1888 / cat 3. Miami (945 mb; poss cat-4)
Sep 1896 / cat-3. Cedar Key (955 mb)
Oct 1906 / cat-3. Keys/ Miami (953 mb)
Oct 1909 / cat-3. Keys (957 mb)
Oct 1910 / cat-3. Key West & Naples (955 mb)
Sep 1919 / cat-4. Lower Keys (927 mb; poss cat-5)
Oct 1921 / cat-3. Tampa Bay (952 mb)
Sep 1926 / cat-4. Miami/ Ft Lauderdale & Fort Myers (935 mb)
Sep 1928 / cat-4. Palm Beach to Ft Pierce (929 mb)
Sep 1929 / cat-3. Upper Keys/ South Dade (948 mb)
Sep 1933 / cat-3. Palm Beach & Broward counties (948 mb)
Sep 1935 / cat-5. Middle Keys & Naples/ Sanibel I./ Longboat Key (892 mb)
Oct 1944 / cat-3. Sarasota to Naples (962 mb)
Sep 1945 / cat-3. Miami-Dade (951 mb)
Sep 1947 / cat-4. Miami to Palm Beach (940 mb)
Sep 1948 / cat-3. Key West & Everglades City (963 mb)
Aug 1949 / cat-3. Palm Beach to Stuart (954 mb)
Sep 1950 / cat-3. Cedar Key to Tarpon Springs "Easy" (958 mb)
Oct 1950 / cat-3. Miami/ Fort Lauderdale "King" (955 mb)
Sep 1960 / cat-4. Keys/ Naples to Port Charlotte "Donna" (930 mb)
Sep 1965 / cat-3. Keys & South Dade "Betsy" (952 mb)
Aug 1992 / cat-5. South Dade "Andrew" (922 mb)

26 major landfalling hurricanes occurred between 1845 and 2002....or a ratio of once every six years. It's now been 11 since hurricane Andrew...and 38 since Betsy. We can all do the math :o :o :o

Also note when these major landfalling hurricanes occurred...most young Floridians I know seem to think August is "hurricane time" in south Florida because of hurricane Andrew -- but the statistics show both September (14 major hits) and October (8) are far more likely to see a major hurricane hit the Florida Peninsula than August (4). Andrew was only the second major hurricane to strike south Florida in over a century.

ECMWF 12z came in stronger like the GFS 12z for the eastern trough in 4-5 days. Pattern changing front.

ECMWF 12z:



Quoting 98. LargoFl:


What will become of that energy to the west of Jamaica going WSW?
Quoting 97. Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z came in stronger like the GFS 12z for the eastern trough in 4-5 days. Pattern changing front.

ECMWF 12z:





That trough has the appearance of an elephant.
While the East cools down as the ECMWF projected, the West is expected to remain above average temperature wise. Poor California.

Quoting 101. TropicalAnalystwx13:

While the East cools down as the ECMWF projected, the West is expected to remain above average temperature wise. Poor California.




Quiet in the Atlantic for now!!
Quoting 72. GatorWX:

They took the floater off Phanfone?



Anyway, coming together, quickly. Either Japan, S Korea or e China is in for a typhoon strike it appears. GFS takes it up the spine of Japan presently.


OMG. This will be a powerfull super typhoon. O_O
86. hydrus

Nice post. The twin 'canes of 1844 were notable too.. not nearly as strong, although the plantations in Cuba had not recovered from 1844 when 1846 hit. In Florida, the high fresh water caused by the 1844 storm, enabled the Indian River Colony to breech the ocean dune at Pecks Lake and create the first man made inlet on Indian River lagoon. They called it Prospect inlet. The 1780 storm debarked trees.. and helped us win the Revolution!
Quoting 80. Grothar:



Hurricane forecast map for next 22 years.





I'd almost rather see that in a season than last year. Tropical storm POOF. Tropical storm and POOF. Tropical storm aaand it's gone it's all gone.
Quoting 67. hurricanes2018:



no way its the GFS playing game again with them fake hurricane off the coast!


"Have we got enough of the Florida bloggers to talk about it?" asked the GFS, "Yes? OK time to drop it. Hehe, that is rich."

"You're telling me, I do this to North Carolina every week!" exclaimed the CMC.
Good evening. If you've asked me I'd have guessed that Quickscat failed only maybe three years ago (and we all were mourning in this very blog). To realize that it happened in 2009 was quite a surprise for me. Meee, time is running! Thanks for the new blog, doc, and I'm glad for the new substitute, although somehow paler.

Moreover: "Our" Angela has released a new blog about the Japanese volcano matter on WP:

Link.
Nobody here geeks out for Kansas tornado threats?


Quoting 105. indianrivguy:

86. hydrus

Nice post. The twin 'canes of 1844 were notable too.. not nearly as strong, although the plantations in Cuba had not recovered from 1844 when 1846 hit. In Florida, the high fresh water caused by the 1844 storm, enabled the Indian River Colony to breech the ocean dune at Pecks Lake and create the first man made inlet on Indian River lagoon. They called it Prospect inlet. The 1780 storm debarked trees.. and helped us win the Revolution!
This happened at the Destin, Fl. East Pass between Choctawhatchee Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.


In April, 1928, a severe storm and high tide partially breached the barrier near the present location of the inlet, and intense
rainfall and construction of a pilot channel by local inhabitants in 1929 rapidly widened and strengthened the present location
of East Pass inlet.
Already dropped 9,21 (234 mm) inches of rain in the city of Santa Rosa, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil IN 12 HOURS!!!!!!!!
Quoting 96. LargoFl:

"Andrew" (922 mb)

26 major landfalling hurricanes occurred between 1845 and 2002....or a ratio of once every six years. It's now been 11 since hurricane Andrew...and 38 since Betsy. We can all do the math :o :o :o

Also note when these major landfalling hurricanes occurred...most young Floridians I know seem to think August is "hurricane time" in south Florida because of hurricane Andrew -- but the statistics show both September (14 major hits) and October (8) are far more likely to see a major hurricane hit the Florida Peninsula than August (4). Andrew was only the second major hurricane to strike south Florida in over a century.




I've been resigned to season cancel here for several weeks. Only two October canes in over a century, one of them was barely a Cat 1, the NHC feeling generous. And there will be no 1949 style major hitting Freeport and heading inland to Houston on October 3rd and 4th.

Which would have been interesting, although bad for the Popo Playa Party Pad on Galveston Island.

But Florida is good to go, with a hurricane that weakened to Cat 2 just before landfall in Florida a week before Thanksgiving less than 30 years ago.

And if one doesn't mind a less than classic satellite presentation, as a storm becomes sub-tropical/baroclinically enhanced, less than 2 years since a small part of Suffolk County, NY experiences sustained Cat 1 winds while Sandy was still a hurricane per NHC.

BTW, cold air strato-cu into the Gulf...

Quoting 109. EdMahmoud:

Nobody here geeks out for Kansas tornado threats?



lots of midwest folks post here im sure they will be posting about that too
Quoting 99. rmbjoe1954:



What will become of that energy to the west of Jamaica going WSW?
yeah im watching to see if that becomes the low down near central america,if it does maybe,just maybe thats the data being fed to the GFS,,we'll see in a week whats down there.
Quoting 109. EdMahmoud:

Nobody here geeks out for Kansas tornado threats?
This a.m. TorCon highest for NE,SD, then IA. My current Sat/Rad pics show most activity there now, but no strong red or yel yet, but do appear to be building, maybe it'll drop S as it does .

Waiting for it tomorrow night in S C IL, did wake up to light fog this a.m., dew pts slightly higher (upper 50s) and a little N flow ahead of front cooled us enough. Clouds burnt off and now busted forecast high of 81, but only by a degree today. Pressure continues to drop - 29.91" w/ very light northerlies.

Saw an article saying IL behind in harvest - sure not the case around here, but it was wetter up N in spring and recently, so that must be reason.
Quoting 105. indianrivguy:

86. hydrus

Nice post. The twin 'canes of 1844 were notable too.. not nearly as strong, although the plantations in Cuba had not recovered from 1844 when 1846 hit. In Florida, the high fresh water caused by the 1844 storm, enabled the Indian River Colony to breech the ocean dune at Pecks Lake and create the first man made inlet on Indian River lagoon. They called it Prospect inlet. The 1780 storm debarked trees.. and helped us win the Revolution!
I cannot find it, but during the 1800,s the Caribbean was cranking out storms on a regular basis, and during one decade ( cant remember which ) there were 17 landfalls ( T.S,s included ) on the west coast of Florida, and only 4 on the east coast.
I guess its been said enough in here,time and time again,folks from all over should be posting about their severe weather alerts just like you see so many from the south east posting about their weather and storms in here..yes at times it sure looks like too many floridians posting about florida..but..imagine the post count in here if all sections of the country that were having weather problems..posted about it in here...i have to say..this is the most active blog ive ever belonged to..it could be even better perhaps..and..more info could betalked about other than..this dead hurricane season huh..well its just my view..stay safe out there folks.
Don't forget about Charley (cat4 in Aug, 2004) and Wilma (cat3 in Oct. 2005)
From TWC
Tropical Storms 2006 - 2013 in Florida.

so if I'm reading the Euro map correctly we talking about a one day drop in temps on Sun according to the Euro for the east coast and temps start to rebound on Monday..I think I'll hold on pulling out my winter coat out of the closet just yet..

Starting at 120 hours




last frame for 240 hours shows the cold air trying to return to the east coast but we all know how reliable the Euro is at for 240 hours


My 10 day forecast..I make it to 71 on Sun with a low of 55..I hope I don't need to pull out the space heater..


Well its been nice knowing you all.

CNBC ‏@CNBC 11m11 minutes ago
BREAKING: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in the United States, Reuters reports. http://cnb.cx/1rDPInZ
Quoting 121. VAbeachhurricanes:

Well its been nice knowing you all.

CNBC ‏@CNBC 11m11 minutes ago
BREAKING: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in the United States, Reuters reports. http://cnb.cx/1rDPInZ
Everyone, remember to practice good hygiene. Will help this from spreading quickly.
Quoting 122. ElConando:

Everyone, remember to practice good hygiene. Will help this from spreading quickly.


Rut Row.... Uh oh....

Hopefully not in Florida, I am going back next month for the month.
Quoting 121. VAbeachhurricanes:

Well its been nice knowing you all.

CNBC ‏@CNBC 11m11 minutes ago
BREAKING: CDC confirms first Ebola case diagnosed in the United States, Reuters reports. http://cnb.cx/1rDPInZ



Add in the enterovirus affecting teenagers and children lately you might be better staying inside..
Quoting 90. ColoradoBob1:

The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake in the world.

Watch it dry up.
Hi Colorado! Glad to see you're back on here! Now it's a party!
NC -for us in S C IL Fri - 69, Sat - 63, Sun - 72, so does look like a one day drop.

Does appear the reds are building S of Lincoln and W of Des Moines, even a little drop into KS now Ed.
Major flash flooding in France
BBC weather video, 30 September 2014 Last updated at 16:57
Storms across southern France have brought major flash flooding. In particular, Montpellier has had nearly half a year's worth of rain within a matter of hours. BBC Weather's Nick Miller has the story.
From ABC News..

The first Ebola case has been diagnosed in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced today.

Although American Ebola patients have been treated in the United States prior to this diagnosis, they all contracted Ebola in West Africa. Ebola has killed 2,917 people and infected 3,346 others since the outbreak began in March.

The CDC will hold a press conference at 5:30 p.m. with the Dallas and Texas state health officials as well as officials from Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas. According to the Associated Press, a patient arrived at the Dallas hospital on Monday with possible Ebola symptoms and recent travel history to West Africa. He was being kept in isolation until the CDC could confirm the diagnosis.
Quoting 122. ElConando:

Everyone, remember to practice good hygiene. Will help this from spreading quickly.

Hopefully it was just one person and he recovers quickly. Dallas is a big city..
Quoting AlbertFish:


Why in the world should people be posting comments about their local weather alerts, or local weather for that matter? Dr. Masters has a tropical weather blog and the comments section is already dominated by non-tropical weather-related drivel (primarily whether it is raining in Florida), which technically should not be allowed if the rules of the comments section were followed. Please don't encourage more of this local weather nonsense.


People have always discussed all forms of severe weather (tornadoes, floods, snow storms, record lows, record highs, etc) in this blog.




Quoting 124. Dakster:



Rut Row.... Uh oh....

Hopefully not in Florida, I am going back next month for the month.


If you spend winters in Florida and summers in Alaska, the weather is always comfortable :)
Eastern Pacific's Rachel weakening;
2:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 30
Location: 22.9°N 117.5°W
Moving: S at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
Quoting 109. EdMahmoud:

Nobody here geeks out for Kansas tornado threats?





If I lived in Kansas, you better believe I would be posting a lot about, it, but because I don't, I'm not interested. I only pay attention to major events outside of my local area. There is always interesting weather going on locally somewhere, so I'd never get anything done if I focused on weather elsewhere. Because of that, I'd rather focus on what happens locally, which obviously varies depending on where I live. When I say local I mean state.
Quoting 110. defuniak30:

This happened at the Destin, Fl. East Pass between Choctawhatchee Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.


In April, 1928, a severe storm and high tide partially breached the barrier near the present location of the inlet, and intense
rainfall and construction of a pilot channel by local inhabitants in 1929 rapidly widened and strengthened the present location
of East Pass inlet.



A part of my family traveled from Chicago to Florida in a 28 ft sloop. The first meal the Pierce branch of my family ate at a settlers home in Florida, was at the Leonard and Martha Destin home, 1872
12z UKMET at 72 hours

Quoting 118. Sfloridacat5:

Don't forget about Charley (cat4 in Aug, 2004) and Wilma (cat3 in Oct. 2005)


...and Cat 3 Jeanne in Sep 05
Quoting 96. LargoFl:

MAJOR FLORIDA PENINSULA HURRICANES SINCE 1845

Oct 1846 / cat-4. Key West; Tampa Bay to Cedar Key (917 mb @ Key West; poss cat-5)
Sep 1848 / cat 3. Tampa Bay (est. 945 mb)
Aug 1871 / cat-3. Palm Beach to Ft Pierce (955 mb)
Oct 1873 / cat-3. Ft Myers/Naples (959 mb)
Aug 1888 / cat 3. Miami (945 mb; poss cat-4)
Sep 1896 / cat-3. Cedar Key (955 mb)
Oct 1906 / cat-3. Keys/ Miami (953 mb)
Oct 1909 / cat-3. Keys (957 mb)
Oct 1910 / cat-3. Key West & Naples (955 mb)
Sep 1919 / cat-4. Lower Keys (927 mb; poss cat-5)
Oct 1921 / cat-3. Tampa Bay (952 mb)
Sep 1926 / cat-4. Miami/ Ft Lauderdale & Fort Myers (935 mb)
Sep 1928 / cat-4. Palm Beach to Ft Pierce (929 mb)
Sep 1929 / cat-3. Upper Keys/ South Dade (948 mb)
Sep 1933 / cat-3. Palm Beach & Broward counties (948 mb)
Sep 1935 / cat-5. Middle Keys & Naples/ Sanibel I./ Longboat Key (892 mb)
Oct 1944 / cat-3. Sarasota to Naples (962 mb)
Sep 1945 / cat-3. Miami-Dade (951 mb)
Sep 1947 / cat-4. Miami to Palm Beach (940 mb)
Sep 1948 / cat-3. Key West & Everglades City (963 mb)
Aug 1949 / cat-3. Palm Beach to Stuart (954 mb)
Sep 1950 / cat-3. Cedar Key to Tarpon Springs "Easy" (958 mb)
Oct 1950 / cat-3. Miami/ Fort Lauderdale "King" (955 mb)
Sep 1960 / cat-4. Keys/ Naples to Port Charlotte "Donna" (930 mb)
Sep 1965 / cat-3. Keys & South Dade "Betsy" (952 mb)
Aug 1992 / cat-5. South Dade "Andrew" (922 mb)

26 major landfalling hurricanes occurred between 1845 and 2002....or a ratio of once every six years. It's now been 11 since hurricane Andrew...and 38 since Betsy. We can all do the math :o :o :o

Also note when these major landfalling hurricanes occurred...most young Floridians I know seem to think August is "hurricane time" in south Florida because of hurricane Andrew -- but the statistics show both September (14 major hits) and October (8) are far more likely to see a major hurricane hit the Florida Peninsula than August (4). Andrew was only the second major hurricane to strike south Florida in over a century.




Largo I'm not sure where you got you're data from, but NOAA says their have been 37 direct major hurricane landfalls in Florida.

Link

Louisiana is 2nd with 20, and Texas 3rd with 19.

I'm not sure exactly all the ones you didn't add to the list, but I know that list only goes to 2002, since then there have been 3, Charley and Jeanne in 2004, and Wilma in 2005. But NOAA's list is 37, so you missed some others on the list too. Because if you add the recent 3, or 29, that's still 8 major hurricanes less than Florida's official total.

I figured you'd like to know!
Phanfone right now:


GFS forecast for Monday: Phanfone over Japan, and the next already developing:


Quoting 125. Articuno:







So true. Mors certa hora incerta. ;-)
local met on fox 13 tampa says rainy season will end on sunday. stated a cold front coming will clear the state and although temps remain warm the air will dry out and he stated that will end the rainy season
Quoting 140. Jedkins01:



Largo I'm not sure where you got you're data from, but NOAA says their have been 37 direct major hurricane landfalls in Florida.

Link

Louisiana is 2nd with 20, and Texas 3rd with 19.

I'm not sure exactly all the ones you didn't add to the list, but I know that list only goes to 2002, since then there have been 3, Charley and Jeanne in 2004, and Wilma in 2005. But NOAA's list is 37, so you missed some others on the list too. Because if you add the recent 3, or 29, that's still 8 major hurricanes less than Florida's official total.

I figured you'd like to know!


Also, there's Eloise of 1975, Ivan of 2004, and Dennis of 2005. There's probably many more I'm forgetting too :-)
Quoting 140. Jedkins01:



Largo I'm not sure where you got you're data from, but NOAA says their have been 37 direct major hurricane landfalls in Florida.

Link

Louisiana is 2nd with 20, and Texas 3rd with 19.

I'm not sure exactly all the ones you didn't add to the list, but I know that list only goes to 2002, since then there have been 3, Charley and Jeanne in 2004, and Wilma in 2005. But NOAA's list is 37, so you missed some others on the list too. Because if you add the recent 3, or 29, that's still 8 major hurricanes less than Florida's official total.

I figured you'd like to know!
I guess he was trying to show, not exact numbers your right there but that florida and especially west coast of florida needs to watch sept and especially october for the hurricanes, not august....local met on baynews9 said today for tampa bay, October is the month most hurricanes endanger tampa bay and the gulf coast....well for myself i always stay alert sept-oct anyway and all eyes on the gulf always huh.
Quoting 144. Stormlover16:



Also, there's Eloise of 1975, Ivan of 2004, and Dennis of 2005. There's probably many more I'm forgetting too :-)

I'm trying to but in with Jeanne but forgot about Dennis lol. I wonder where NC is ranked on the major hurricane landfalls I better look at that link. I do know that there are several storms that have conflicting information regarding category especially in the 50's/60's, Connie and Donna for example.
ok so in 5-6 days,we watch that LOW by central america..gem has it there also...that may be the one......
Quoting 110. defuniak30:

This happened at the Destin, Fl. East Pass between Choctawhatchee Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.


In April, 1928, a severe storm and high tide partially breached the barrier near the present location of the inlet, and intense
rainfall and construction of a pilot channel by local inhabitants in 1929 rapidly widened and strengthened the present location
of East Pass inlet.


I heard the 1926 hurricane did that.
Quoting 140. Jedkins01:



Largo I'm not sure where you got you're data from, but NOAA says their have been 37 direct major hurricane landfalls in Florida.

Link

Louisiana is 2nd with 20, and Texas 3rd with 19.

I'm not sure exactly all the ones you didn't add to the list, but I know that list only goes to 2002, since then there have been 3, Charley and Jeanne in 2004, and Wilma in 2005. But NOAA's list is 37, so you missed some others on the list too. Because if you add the recent 3, or 29, that's still 8 major hurricanes less than Florida's official total.

I figured you'd like to know!


1. October 11, 1848 %u2013 A major hurricane hits northwestern Florida, causing additional damage to the severe hurricane a few weeks before.
2. August 24, 1851 %u2013 Apalachicola is hit by a major hurricane, causing severe damage in the St. Marks area from its 12 foot (3.7 m)
3. September 10, 1882 %u2013 The second hurricane of the season makes landfall as a major hurricane at Pensacola, where it was considered to be among the most severe on record. Several boats are washed ashore along the Gulf of Mexico coastline. In and around Jacksonville, the strong winds greatly damage the cotton crop and destroy several buildings, killing five people.
4. October 9, 1894 %u2013 A major hurricane hits moves ashore near Pensacola, producing high tides and heavy rainfall
5. September 29, 1917 %u2013 A major hurricane moves makes landfall near Pensacola with recorded sustained winds of 103 mph (166 km/h) and gusts to 125 mph (202 km/h); the passage of the cyclone results in 5 fatalities and about $170,000 in damage (1917 USD, $2.9 million 2008 USD)
6. September 23, 1975- Hurricane Eloise makes landfall near Destin with winds of about 125 mph (200 km/h), producing light precipitation across the peninsula with heavier amounts near the landfall location peaking at 14.9 inches (378 mm) at Eglin Air Force Base.[3] Hurricane force winds and storm surge of up to 16 feet (4.9 m) across the panhandle destroy 500 small businesses and damage or destroy 8,000 houses. Damage in the state totals $100 million (1975 USD, $400 million 2008 USD)
7. October 4, 1995- Hurricane Opal hits Pensacola Beach with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). The hurricane drops moderate rainfall across much of the state, and a tornado spawned by Opal kills one person %u2014 the only direct casualty in the state from the hurricane.[77] Strong winds and rough seas damage or destroy large portions of coastal towns along the Florida Panhandle, with serious damage extending eastward to Apalachicola.[78] At the time, Opal is the third costliest tropical cyclone in the United States, with damage totaling over $1 billion (1995 USD) in Florida.

I found 7 more, it also said between 1845 and 2002, so if the official count was 37 and Dennis, Jeanne, Charley and Ivan do not count, that leaves 33 that have made landfall from 1845 to 2002, here are the other 7 then.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:54 PM PDT on September 30, 2014
Clear
86.3 °F / 30.2 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 84 °F / 29 °C
Humidity: 28%
Dew Point: 50 °F / 10 °C
Wind: 7.0 mph / 11.3 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the West
Wind Gust: 18.0 mph / 29.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.73 in / 1006 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
the lull before the heat storm.
Fri=95, Sat=101, Sun=97 (Santa Ana Wind Event)
Quoting Jedkins01:


If you spend winters in Florida and summers in Alaska, the weather is always comfortable :)


Only if you're a 'snowbird'!
what amazes me about the sheer power of hurricanes..in 1848 a hurricane cut my county in half,literally.......can you imagine that happening today?
nc,

The only rain in our 10 day forecast is Friday night. Wooohooooo! A perfect stretch of weather coming.

Quoting 120. ncstorm:

so if I'm reading the Euro map correctly we talking about a one day drop in temps on Sun according to the Euro for the east coast and temps start to rebound on Monday..I think I'll hold on pulling out my winter coat out of the closet just yet..

Starting at 120 hours




last frame for 240 hours shows the cold air trying to return to the east coast but we all know how reliable the Euro is at for 240 hours


My 10 day forecast..I make it to 71 on Sun with a low of 55..I hope I don't need to pull out the space heater..



Quoting 151. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:54 PM PDT on September 30, 2014
Clear
86.3 °F / 30.2 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 84 °F / 29 °C
Humidity: 28%
Dew Point: 50 °F / 10 °C
Wind: 7.0 mph / 11.3 km/h / 3.1 m/s from the West
Wind Gust: 18.0 mph / 29.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.73 in / 1006 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
the lull before the heat storm.
Fri=95, Sat=101, Sun=97 (Santa Ana Wind Event)
way back in the 80's i drove over to california from nyc..and i got a good taste of those santa ana winds..oh boy did I......
Why does the GFS always have a storm hitting Florida 384hrs out? Just checked it out on Levi's tropical tidbits site.
Quoting 149. Hurricanes101:



1. October 11, 1848 %u2013 A major hurricane hits northwestern Florida, causing additional damage to the severe hurricane a few weeks before.
2. August 24, 1851 %u2013 Apalachicola is hit by a major hurricane, causing severe damage in the St. Marks area from its 12 foot (3.7 m)
3. September 10, 1882 %u2013 The second hurricane of the season makes landfall as a major hurricane at Pensacola, where it was considered to be among the most severe on record. Several boats are washed ashore along the Gulf of Mexico coastline. In and around Jacksonville, the strong winds greatly damage the cotton crop and destroy several buildings, killing five people.
4. October 9, 1894 %u2013 A major hurricane hits moves ashore near Pensacola, producing high tides and heavy rainfall
5. September 29, 1917 %u2013 A major hurricane moves makes landfall near Pensacola with recorded sustained winds of 103 mph (166 km/h) and gusts to 125 mph (202 km/h); the passage of the cyclone results in 5 fatalities and about $170,000 in damage (1917 USD, $2.9 million 2008 USD)
6. September 23, 1975- Hurricane Eloise makes landfall near Destin with winds of about 125 mph (200 km/h), producing light precipitation across the peninsula with heavier amounts near the landfall location peaking at 14.9 inches (378 mm) at Eglin Air Force Base.[3] Hurricane force winds and storm surge of up to 16 feet (4.9 m) across the panhandle destroy 500 small businesses and damage or destroy 8,000 houses. Damage in the state totals $100 million (1975 USD, $400 million 2008 USD)
7. October 4, 1995- Hurricane Opal hits Pensacola Beach with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). The hurricane drops moderate rainfall across much of the state, and a tornado spawned by Opal kills one person %u2014 the only direct casualty in the state from the hurricane.[77] Strong winds and rough seas damage or destroy large portions of coastal towns along the Florida Panhandle, with serious damage extending eastward to Apalachicola.[78] At the time, Opal is the third costliest tropical cyclone in the United States, with damage totaling over $1 billion (1995 USD) in Florida.

I found 7 more, it also said between 1845 and 2002, so if the official count was 37 and Dennis, Jeanne, Charley and Ivan do not count, that leaves 33 that have made landfall from 1845 to 2002, here are the other 7 then.


Forgot to include Wilma too, so that is either only 32 that formed between 1845 and 2002. Meaning that either 1 of the storms recorded in that timeframe is NOT a Major or the total amount is actually 38
Quoting 156. hurricanewatcher61:

Why does the GFS always have a storm hitting Florida 384hrs out? Just checked it out on Levi's tropical tidbits site.

Cuz it has issues
Quoting 21. StormTrackerScott:



Look at Saturday Night this is a 10 degree drop from the 06Z GFS run. 55 in Orlando is pretty cool for the first week of October.




Of course the graphic shows now temp for Miami. Any chance we get below 70º on Sat nite or Sun nite ? (I hope so)
Local met says tampa bay may..get 1-2 evenings in the 50's..wonderful!!...and we dry out too
Quoting 145. LargoFl:

I guess he was trying to show, not exact numbers your right there but that florida and especially west coast of florida needs to watch sept and especially october for the hurricanes, not august....local met on baynews9 said today for tampa bay, October is the month most hurricanes endanger tampa bay and the gulf coast....well for myself i always stay alert sept-oct anyway and all eyes on the gulf always huh.


Yeah definitely, Charley was really the exception as far as west coast of Florida landfalls in August. October is actually very dangerous for hurricanes on the west coast of Florida. And it is something people need to be aware of, since people naturally think the hurricane threat is dying as the rainy season starts to fade. I'm sure you remember Wilma quite well, early on quite a few models had Tampa getting hit, they shifted south into SW FL which eventually it did make landfall near Naples.

The weather prior to Wilma was quite dry for a while as we already had our first cold front which ended the rainy season.

So even though we are getting our first cold front in Florida bringing the start of Fall, it doesn't mean the hurricane threat is entirely over yet. Although this year seems unlikely to bring any threats.
its strange..in west coast of florida we have many months in our rainy season..and we got the whole 9 yards of rain in a few weeks lol...weather sure can get strange huh.loves to fool men with their calendar's and graphs and models lol,I'll show them..who's boss
Quoting 161. Jedkins01:



Yeah definitely, Charley was really the exception as far as west coast of Florida landfalls in August. October is actually very dangerous for hurricanes on the west coast of Florida. And it is something people need to be aware of, since people naturally think the hurricane threat is dying as the rainy season starts to fade. I'm sure you remember Wilma quite well, early on quite a few models had Tampa getting hit, they shifted south into SW FL which eventually it did make landfall near Naples.

The weather prior to Wilma was quite dry for a while as we already had our first cold front which ended the rainy season.

So even though we are getting our first cold front in Florida bringing the start of Fall, it doesn't mean the hurricane threat is entirely over yet. Although this year seems unlikely to bring any threats.
yes i really watch for tail end of fronts lingering in the gulf,some of them do develop into something
Phanfone


Quoting 4. biff4ugo:

Nice Dr. M!

Link

I do see now that the lakes I am looking at in the middle of the state in Red for low water levels, are actually surrounded by Blue...high flow flooded areas.
Why are they so red!? they should be at least green.
The Ocklawaha lakes just refuse to rise.


Interesting observation, its possible that it may partly be to blame from too much human use. Florida has a problem with ground water shortages because it has a very short lived amount of ground water due to being surrounded by ocean and being a relatively young landmass. Most of the rain water ends up being not useable, and human consumption continues to increase. With that said, we use way too much water.
Despite even being amongst one of the wetter states rainfall wise in the U.S., many spots in Florida struggle with freshwater shortages for this reason.

Before all the human over consumption, all the lakes and wetlands naturally are designed to pool all the heavy rain runoff and acts like storage during the dry season. Now we use most of what is safe for use. We need to just start drinking water only from desalination over time, as the population in Florida will only continue to rise. Population is only a problem because we are wasteful.
off topic but they now have the first case of that Ebola virus in texas,the victim is in Isolation..they really do need to come up with a treatment and cure for that dangerous virus huh.
Another 1.72" of rain here in Longwood. Up to 17.3" for September.
Flooding at Cranes Roost Park in Altamonte Springs is the worse since FAY in 2008.
LOL...18z GFS AT 384 HOURS........poof................................. .......................
Quoting 162. LargoFl:
its strange..in west coast of florida we have many months in our rainy season..and we got the whole 9 yards of rain in a few weeks lol...weather sure can get strange huh.loves to fool men with their calendar's and graphs and models lol,I'll show them..who's boss


Yeah and people like to come on here and minimize it. Over 12" of rain here since last Monday is not normal this late in the year.
Still out for revenge to the point its sickening.Yuck.Some people are so desperate and lonely.
Quoting 168. StormTrackerScott:

Another 1.72" of rain here in Longwood. Up to 17.3" for September.
yeah here it was on and off rain most of the day
Quoting 162. LargoFl:

its strange..in west coast of florida we have many months in our rainy season..and we got the whole 9 yards of rain in a few weeks lol...weather sure can get strange huh.loves to fool men with their calendar's and graphs and models lol,I'll show them..who's boss


Yeah you're right, my parents live only a couple miles east of Largo in Pinellas, where I grew up and and where I still live when I'm not in school. I have a NWS certified accuracy rain gauge there, and it only received a little over 11 inches this summer while I lived through from Jun-August.
This is well below average, as the average rainfall from Jun-August is about 20-25 inches. I'd say Largo had similar totals, so you had less than half the average rain from Jun-Aug.

But I just found out from them that they have had a whopping 15.04 inches to end September today! I would imagine Largo had a similar amount of rain.

Just from Friday to Sunday during this past weekend, 7.76 fell there! So yes, its very saturated down there right now, and it was much needed! I think you guys could actually afford some cooler drier air now, and so could we.

Although we haven't been nearly as wet, we've only had 4.73 this month. But that's close to normal actually, we only average a little over 4 inches here in Tallahassee in September. We did get a nice soaking of 1.21 yesterday though.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Long term...

The extended forecast beyond Friday will be dry...and considerably
less humid across the area as the cold front moves well into the
Gulf of Mexico. Drier air will overspread the area into early next
week. Another shortwave reinforcing the cooler and drier air will
push a front through the area Monday night or Tuesday. Not out of
the question a few showers could occur with this front...but will
keep forecast dry for now.

Definite cooling trend behind the front with thicknesses and h925
temperatures dictating about a 10 degree cooloff on high
temperatures...and possibly closer to 15-20 degrees on low
temperatures from Friday to Sunday at some Northshore locations
normally subject to drainage like Slidell and Pascagoula. A brief
minor modification to the airmass Monday before the reinforcing
front drops overnight lows back to slightly below normal for
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
35
Quoting 157. Hurricanes101:



Forgot to include Wilma too, so that is either only 32 that formed between 1845 and 2002. Meaning that either 1 of the storms recorded in that timeframe is NOT a Major or the total amount is actually 38
Hurricane direct hits on the mainland U.S. coastline and for individual states by Saffir/Simpson category
1851-2013
AREA CATEGORY Major
Hurricanes
1 2 3 4 5 ALL
U.S. Coastline
(Texas to Maine) 117 76 76 18 3 290 97
Texas 25 19 12 7 0 63 19
North 13 8 3 4 0 28 7
Central 7 5 2 2 0 16 4
South 10 5 7 1 0 23 8
Louisiana 19 15 15 4 1 54 20
Mississippi 2 5 8 0 1 16 9
Alabama 12 5 6 0 0 23 6
Florida 44 33 29 6 2 114 37
Northwest 27 16 12 0 0 55 12
Northeast 13 8 1 0 0 22 1
Southwest 16 8 7 4 1 36 12
Southeast 13 13 11 3 1 41 15
Georgia 12 5 2 1 0 20 3
South Carolina 19 6 4 2 0 31 6
North Carolina 24 13 11 1 0 47 13
Virginia 9 2 1 0 0 12 1
Maryland 1 1 0 0 0 2 0
Delaware 2 0 0 0 0 2 0
New Jersey 2 0 0 0 0 2 0
Pennsylvania 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
New York 6 1 5 0 0 12 5
Connecticut 4 3 3 0 0 10 3
Rhode Island 3 2 4 0 0 9 4
Massachusetts 5 2 3 0 0 10 3
New Hampshire 1 1 0 0 0 2 0
Maine 5 1 0 0 0 6 0
Quoting 173. washingtonian115:
Still out for revenge to the point its sickening.Yuck.Some people are so desperate and lonely.


??? Who is out for revenge?
"Da Nerd's
I used the data provided by Largo, to create this plot... quite interesting. We have gone 107 months without a major landfall, which falls just short of the upper quartile limit of 109 months. We're due, but could wait upwards of ten years for the next! 

Revised October outlook from the CPC..fresh off the press today..



This is interesting, zoom in and you can see a weak and small, but well defined surface low that will be moving into the coast just north of Tampa. Drier air aloft that has move in combined with shear and NVA behind the upper trough has cut down on the rain production with this low compared to yesterday. It still has some showers rotating around it though.

From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA
Quoting 180. StormTrackerScott:



??? Who is out for revenge?
Some sickening person that is still angry over stuff 2 and a half months ago.


look who in my backyard!!
Quoting 187. hurricanes2018:



look who in my backyard!!


The one on the right would probably take a lot more stuffing. Don't forget the orange glaze.
Quoting 188. Grothar:



The one on the right would probably take a lot more stuffing. Don't forget the orange glaze.


And if you need a string bean casserole recipe, let me know! :)

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 20m 20 minutes ago

Broader view of Atlantic in 4.5 days: cold front close to S. Florida but maybe an African wave potential developer

Quoting ncstorm:

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 20m 20 minutes ago

Broader view of Atlantic in 4.5 days: cold front close to S. Florida but maybe an African wave potential developer

Quoting 184. Jedkins01:

This is interesting, zoom in and you can see a weak and small, but well defined surface low that will be moving into the coast just north of Tampa. Drier air aloft that has move in combined with shear and NVA behind the upper trough has cut down on the rain production with this low compared to yesterday. It still has some showers rotating around it though.



The situation with Phanfone is increasingly worrisome. Models look to have shifted closer to Japan, I don't know that it will stay offshore as the JTWC forecast shows. ECMWF takes it to 905mb, likely a Cat 5 or close to it. Look at that structure, wow.



Quoting 179. defuniak30:

Hurricane direct hits on the mainland U.S. coastline and for individual states by Saffir/Simpson category
1851-2013
AREA CATEGORY Major
Hurricanes
1 2 3 4 5 ALL
U.S. Coastline
(Texas to Maine) 117 76 76 18 3 290 97
Texas 25 19 12 7 0 63 19
North 13 8 3 4 0 28 7
Central 7 5 2 2 0 16 4
South 10 5 7 1 0 23 8
Louisiana 19 15 15 4 1 54 20
Mississippi 2 5 8 0 1 16 9
Alabama 12 5 6 0 0 23 6
Florida 44 33 29 6 2 114 37
Northwest 27 16 12 0 0 55 12
Northeast 13 8 1 0 0 22 1
Southwest 16 8 7 4 1 36 12
Southeast 13 13 11 3 1 41 15
Georgia 12 5 2 1 0 20 3
South Carolina 19 6 4 2 0 31 6
North Carolina 24 13 11 1 0 47 13
Virginia 9 2 1 0 0 12 1
Maryland 1 1 0 0 0 2 0
Delaware 2 0 0 0 0 2 0
New Jersey 2 0 0 0 0 2 0
Pennsylvania 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
New York 6 1 5 0 0 12 5
Connecticut 4 3 3 0 0 10 3
Rhode Island 3 2 4 0 0 9 4
Massachusetts 5 2 3 0 0 10 3
New Hampshire 1 1 0 0 0 2 0
Maine 5 1 0 0 0 6 0


NC has 13 according to this yet 11+1 is 12 (I think, could someone check my 'rithmetic?). Maybe they included Bonnie on accident or something. Regardless that makes us fourth or one every 13-14 years, 4-5 years overdue.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The situation with Phanfone is increasingly worrisome. Models look to have shifted closer to Japan, I don't know that it will stay offshore as the JTWC forecast shows. ECMWF takes it to 905mb, likely a Cat 5 or close to it. Look at that structure, wow.





Holy crap, that's already a perfect buzzsaw shape. It's pretty easy to imagine that thing going Category 5.
Quoting 175. Jedkins01:



Yeah you're right, my parents live only a couple miles east of Largo in Pinellas, where I grew up and and where I still live when I'm not in school. I have a NWS certified accuracy rain gauge there, and it only received a little over 11 inches this summer while I lived through from Jun-August.
This is well below average, as the average rainfall from Jun-August is about 20-25 inches. I'd say Largo had similar totals, so you had less than half the average rain from Jun-Aug.

But I just found out from them that they have had a whopping 15.04 inches to end September today! I would imagine Largo had a similar amount of rain.

Just from Friday to Sunday during this past weekend, 7.76 fell there! So yes, its very saturated down there right now, and it was much needed! I think you guys could actually afford some cooler drier air now, and so could we.

Although we haven't been nearly as wet, we've only had 4.73 this month. But that's close to normal actually, we only average a little over 4 inches here in Tallahassee in September. We did get a nice soaking of 1.21 yesterday though.


With just 11" total for the three months there must have been periods when it dried out pretty badly and things wilted. Very unusual for a Florida summer. And this also probably happened in Tallahassee which got less than 10"
this summer. My two summers there I remember as sodden after June 20 or so.
ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN/GULF update!!!

However, that jet stream and a sharp dip in it which are approaching are conducive to non-tropical development, plus the low pressure system will slow down and be butting up against a high pressure system to the north, with a tightening and lengthening pressure "gradient" and wind fetch.

This evolution could by Thursday and Friday result in rain and wind in Nova Scotia, and enhanced surf on the coast of New England. Models suggest the system could even again have some hybrid-ish characteristics.
Thanks for the update doc! The RapidScat sounds pretty cool! Will they use it for Phanfone?
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Getting cool, where do you live at.
Quoting 193. MAweatherboy1:

The situation with Phanfone is increasingly worrisome. Models look to have shifted closer to Japan, I don't know that it will stay offshore as the JTWC forecast shows. ECMWF takes it to 905mb, likely a Cat 5 or close to it. Look at that structure, wow.






The storm's forecast track and intensity is eerily reminiscent of Super Typhoon Vera (1959). Then again, Neoguri (who was predicted to roar ashore Japan as a category 3+) was only a tropical storm at landfall.
Quoting 183. ncstorm:

Revised October outlook from the CPC..fresh off the press today..






Not what I would expect to see if there is an El Nino about to be designated.
Quoting 175. Jedkins01:



Yeah you're right, my parents live only a couple miles east of Largo in Pinellas, where I grew up and and where I still live when I'm not in school. I have a NWS certified accuracy rain gauge there, and it only received a little over 11 inches this summer while I lived through from Jun-August.
This is well below average, as the average rainfall from Jun-August is about 20-25 inches. I'd say Largo had similar totals, so you had less than half the average rain from Jun-Aug.

But I just found out from them that they have had a whopping 15.04 inches to end September today! I would imagine Largo had a similar amount of rain.

Just from Friday to Sunday during this past weekend, 7.76 fell there! So yes, its very saturated down there right now, and it was much needed! I think you guys could actually afford some cooler drier air now, and so could we.

Although we haven't been nearly as wet, we've only had 4.73 this month. But that's close to normal actually, we only average a little over 4 inches here in Tallahassee in September. We did get a nice soaking of 1.21 yesterday though.


I live in Oldsmar. I don't have a gauge but we easily have 10-15" in this month.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Thanks for the update doc! The RapidScat sounds pretty cool! Will they use it for Phanfone?


I haven't heard a time table for when it'll be operational for use on hurricanes, but I'd imagine it will be soon. Shame it had to go up in the least active hurricane season since 1997.
Quoting 202. Grothar:




Greetings, Old One.
Tampa hook looking round...
If you had to name three shows a college student would watch on a week night, what three shows would you pick? How about:

Blue's Clues
SpongeBob Squarepants
Veggie Tales

I am completely serious.
Quoting Astrometeor:
If you had to name three shows a college student would watch on a week night, what three shows would you pick? How about:

Blue's Clues
SpongeBob Squarepants
Veggie Tales

I am completely serious.


Spongebob/10
Quoting 204. jrweatherman:



I live in Oldsmar. I don't have a gauge but we easily have 10-15" in this month.
We had just over 16" here in West Pasco County at my location. And it is still raining lightly right now, late on the 30th!

I cannot wait until late this upcoming weekend, when we are predicted to have our first significant cooling and lower humidity of the Autumn season. Currently they are suggesting that the average lows in the Tampa Bay area will be in the low to mid 60s. My guess is low 60s with some 50s in the Nature Coast area. This will be on Monday morning at the latest.

Tallahassee might see low 50s at the same time and some rural cold pockets up there could even drop below 50F for a few minutes or more. Now that's more like it!
Quoting 208. Astrometeor:

If you had to name three shows a college student would watch on a week night, what three shows would you pick? How about:

Blue's Clues
SpongeBob Squarepants
Veggie Tales

I am completely serious.


gravity falls
kung fu panda
adventure time
TEST 123
Quoting 208. Astrometeor:

If you had to name three shows a college student would watch on a week night, what three shows would you pick? How about:

Blue's Clues
SpongeBob Squarepants
Veggie Tales

I am completely serious.


I actually like Veggie Tales, but I'm gonna have to go with Spongebob.
Nearby Weather Stations 10/1/2014
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford raining
59.0 °F
DopplerDon.com
61.6 °F
Rock Hill
58.3 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
59.7 °F
Foxon
57.6 °F
East Haven Town Beach
59.0 °F
Branford Shoreline
59.4 °F
Next time anybody post anything to do to a certain area please put city, state and country if it is out of the USA. Thanks
Top 12th: Royals 7, Athletics 7 10/1/2014 at 12;21am
K.C. scored 3 in the 8th and tied it in the 9th when Jarrod Dyson stole 3rd & scored on a SF.
The GFS and ECMWF have been indicating an increase in synoptic-scale cyclonicity over the southwestern Caribbean/adjacent eastern Pacific beginning about a week from now. This has been consistent in the model fields, and based on the timeline, it likely originates from the tropical wave currently moving toward the Windward Islands. Although there is no explicit mention of tropical cyclogenesis by any of the models for this feature now, I would look for the possibility of a low pressure area trailing what is likely to be Tropical Storm Simon late this week. This area may need to be monitored for tropical cyclone development about a week from now.

The season that keeps on giving!
Quoting 208. Astrometeor:

If you had to name three shows a college student would watch on a week night, what three shows would you pick? How about:

Blue's Clues
SpongeBob Squarepants
Veggie Tales

I am completely serious.


1. *insert a show from Netflix*
2. *insert a show from Netflix*
3. *insert a show from Netflix*
220. JRRP
Athletics 8 Royals 8
what a game!
Looking at the Caribbean sat can we assume it's all done?
It's going to be a terrible drought for us if that's the case
Quoting 222. 19N81W:

Looking at the Caribbean sat can we assume it's all done?
It's going to be a terrible drought for us if that's the case

its done nov 30th that's when its done no matter what happens


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its done nov 30th that's when its done no matter what happens




Quoting 225. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



The snow is working its way down the mountains here, Keep...

Ice on the vehicles in the morning, but still gets warm enough to melt everything during the day.
Quoting 226. Dakster:



The snow is working its way down the mountains here, Keep...

Ice on the vehicles in the morning, but still gets warm enough to melt everything during the day.


I bet you've never had to deal with snow like this before, being a native of Florida and all...
Quoting 222. 19N81W:

Looking at the Caribbean sat can we assume it's all done?
It's going to be a terrible drought for us if that's the case


GFS is a bit more enthusiastic, too enthusiastic, in that if it verified, the low would be developed enough to recurve, but Euro also sees a strong wave moving off Africa during the next few days.

That wave doesn't develop, in a week or ten days, maybe it does something in the Caribbean. Or maybe not. I'm a glass half full kind of guy.

Quoting 184. Jedkins01:

This is interesting, zoom in and you can see a weak and small, but well defined surface low that will be moving into the coast just north of Tampa. Drier air aloft that has move in combined with shear and NVA behind the upper trough has cut down on the rain production with this low compared to yesterday. It still has some showers rotating around it though.


yes nws says..pinellas has a weak low over it this morning 10/1 and everything is soaking wet.
Flooding occurring on the Veterans Expressway in central Hillsborough County. 2+ inches of rain has already fallen this morning on that area. Thankfully, it just narrowly missed my house and I only received 0.10 so far today. The atmosphere just doesn't want to give Central FL a break.

And.......the WPC precipitation forecast busts yet again, I may stop looking at it as it has been horribly off the mark lately. As has the GFS.
sun is creeping up again. aint life grand! got more rain yesterday. more than the last few days put together. go figure? e cen fl.
Good morning and afternoon, everyone. It feels like the middle of summer again here in west central Louisiana, temp is 73, heat index is 78 and humidity is 100%. No, it's not even raining. It felt like a sauna when I went out the door to feed the outside cats. And the sun is not even up yet. Preschool is going to the Fair this morning, it's not going to be comfortable. We're to have storms or at least rain this afternoon/evening timeframe.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, green peppers, mushrooms and bacon bits, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, cheesy grits with shrimp, blueberry pancakes with syrup, yogurt, fresh fruit and coffee or tea. Enjoy!
pouch 41 knocking on the door. "dont let it in!"
Quoting 229. EdMahmoud:

.




Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011141
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later
today or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


INVEST 90E
WOW!! CMC going big time with the cold in C FL and S FL! :P
Quoting 233. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, everyone. It feels like the middle of summer again here in west central Louisiana, temp is 73, heat index is 78 and humidity is 100%. No, it's not even raining. It felt like a sauna when I went out the door to feed the outside cats. And the sun is not even up yet. Preschool is going to the Fair this morning, it's not going to be comfortable. We're to have storms or at least rain this afternoon/evening timeframe.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, green peppers, mushrooms and bacon bits, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, cheesy grits with shrimp, blueberry pancakes with syrup, yogurt, fresh fruit and coffee or tea. Enjoy!


Morning aislinnpaps..
Going with Pecan rolls,cheesy grits with shrimp,black chicory coffee, and 2cc's of Novalog to balance my sugar..
I'm being bad I know..
But gotta live a little while I can.. :)
Thanks for breakfast dear..
Ahh.. :)
Quoting 236. hurricanes2018:




Thats quite a right hand jog..
Almost 90degrees..
Don't think it will happen..
But I've been wrong many times before.. :)
Finally some nice drier weather here around Jacksonville. Only 84% humidity, but i tell you i can feel the difference :)

In fact most of FL is now in the drier air.
Quoting 243. RainySeason:

Finally some nice drier weather here around Jacksonville. Only 84% humidity, but i tell you i can feel the difference :)

In fact most of FL is now in the drier air.



I wish someone could give me a lesson in meteorology - how did 2+ inches of rain fall in Tampa this morning with this much dry air in place?
246. MahFL
Chilly....for Orange Park.

"EXPECT LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S FAR INLAND...WITH SOME UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE."
247. MahFL
Quoting 245. tampabaymatt:



I wish someone could give me a lesson in meteorology - how did 2+ inches of rain fall in Tampa this morning with this much dry air in place?


That sat pic shows dry air at a certain altitude, lower down it could be more moist.

Some spots of moisture are still around :



248. MahFL
One of the driest spots currently in the USA :



GFS has been terrible with forecasting TC genesis, but it actually did a decent job forecasting this synoptic scale feature that is currently moving through the plains. The associated cold front was well predicted. At least it's not messing up here. Then again, forecasting highly variable features of the atmosphere is much easier than forecasting in weak flow barotropic atmospheres. (Tropics).
250. MahFL
From the website :

"Water vapor imagery:
This imagery represents a special kind of infrared measurement which measures the temperature of clouds and water vapor in a layer of the atmosphere about 6-10 km above the surface."

So what you are seeing is high level dryness, not low level dryness in the atmosphere.
251. MahFL
That little low thingy is now ENE of Tampa.

While this season has been an eyesore October is no pushover. Forgot where I read the stat but excluding August and September, October has produced more hurricanes on record than all of the other month of the year combined. Stay prepared.
253. MahFL
While this season has been an eyesore October is no pushover. Forgot where I read the stat but excluding August and September, October has produced more hurricanes on record than all of the other month of the year combined. Stay prepared.
Quoting 254. win1gamegiantsplease:

While this season has been an eyesore October is no pushover. Forgot where I read the stat but excluding August and September, October has produced more hurricanes on record than all of the other month of the year combined. Stay prepared.
If this was a la nina year or a neutral year I would be more worried.Conditions have been unfavorable in the caribbean all season and pretty much seem close for business.
Quoting 251. MahFL:

That little low thingy is now ENE of Tampa.


good it gave me more rain this morning gee
Quoting 245. tampabaymatt:



I wish someone could give me a lesson in meteorology - how did 2 inches of rain fall in Tampa this morning with this much dry air in place?
earlier there was a weak LOW which came ashore from the gulf inpinellas county then moved eastward..it gave me rain also..its gone now.
invest 90E WILL be a T.D soon
The Weather Channel has released this season's winter storm names:



TWC wants you to vote for the W name from a list including Warren, Wilda, Willie, Woden, or Wolf: Link
Quoting 258. LargoFl:


more rain!!!
Quoting 245. tampabaymatt:



I wish someone could give me a lesson in meteorology - how did 2+ inches of rain fall in Tampa this morning with this much dry air in place?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
406 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS SPINNING AROUND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER PINELLAS COUNTY THIS MORNING. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES...WITH
ACTIVITY PEAKING ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DOUBT REMAINS IF SOME AREAS WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE 90 DEGREES OR
HIGHER ADVERTISED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE. MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL PRESENT SOME IMPEDIMENT TO HEATING TODAY.
Lol..more madness from TW(Market)C..But its what to be expected.
Quoting 261. hurricanes2018:

more rain!!!
yes hopefully we'll have a few days of sunshine before that front gets here with more rain..when that cold front hits all this warm moist air whew...
sorry twc no thankx to naming winter storms. why? does anyone remember any names from last yrs winter storm assault? i dont. no one will forget sandy. so? why bother.


Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 30 2014


Valid 021200z - 031200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Midwest to central Texas...


...
band of thunderstorms should form along cold front as it progresses
across the plains into the Mississippi Valley. Damaging wind gusts
are the primary severe threat with the strongest storms.


..Midwest to central Texas...


Low latitude short-wave trough will eject across the southern
rockies/High Plains early in the period before ejecting rapidly northeastward
into the lower Ohio Valley after midnight. Primary feature
responsible for this rapid ejection is an intensifying speed maximum
that will dig into the Central Plains by 03/12z. This secondary
feature should aid deepening cyclone/sharpening frontal boundary
over the upper Great Lakes late.


Although frontal intensification is not expected until late in the
period...convection is expected to develop along progressive
boundary beginning fairly early in the period. Latest model
guidance suggest ample boundary layer moisture will advance as far
north as northern Illinois by late afternoon with precipitable water values at or above 1.5 inches.
What little cinh is observed at 12z ahead of the front will diminish
by 17-18z such that thunderstorms should readily develop along wind
shift across eastern KS/OK. This activity should mature into a
extensive squall line stretching from the middle MS valley...southwestward into
northestern Texas by late afternoon. Greatest buoyancy is expected to reside
from the Ozark Plateau southwestward into Texas and hail is most likely along
this portion of the squall line. Mean southwesterly wind will be on the
order of 30-35kt...more than adequate for progressive squall line
that should advance toward the MS river during the evening hours.
While deep layer shear is more than adequate for deep
rotation...storm Mode favors linear development and damaging winds
are the primary severe threat.


.Darrow.. 10/01/2014

267. beell
Quoting 260. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Weather Channel has released this season's winter storm names:



TWC wants you to vote for the W name from a list including Warren, Wilda, Willie, Woden, or Wolf: Link


Put me down for Winter Storm "What?".
Quoting 265. islander101010:

sorry twc no thankx to naming winter storms. why? does anyone remember any names from last yrs winter storm assault? i dont. no one will forget sandy. so? why bother.

It's all dependent on location and severity. All of us are going to remember Sandy because we're weather geeks. But I've talked with my mom about the storm before (it brought heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds here) and she had no idea when Sandy was. I'm sure those living in South Dakota last year will remember Atlas, a storm that killed thousands of cattle and dropped 58 inches of snow.
Sandy was a NHC name..not TWC..
Quoting 267. beell:



Put me down for Winter Storm "What".

That's not an option, try again. :)
Quoting 208. Astrometeor:

If you had to name three shows a college student would watch on a week night, what three shows would you pick? How about:

Blue's Clues
SpongeBob Squarepants
Veggie Tales

I am completely serious.


TWC of course:-)

Actually my 18 year old son and I both still like Sponge Bob but I don't watch TV (and didn't decades ago
in college either.. a combination of poor time management and too busy and TV wasn't a priority except
for the nightly news which I did try to snag.) With Netflix (which I have but only wife and [ high honors in school] daughter use) I'd probably catch up on old Star Trek series episodes I never watched.
Quoting 260. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Weather Channel has released this season's winter storm names:



TWC wants you to vote for the W name from a list including Warren, Wilda, Willie, Woden, or Wolf: Link


Bozeman? Watch out Montana...

Quoting 255. washingtonian115:

If this was a la nina year or a neutral year I would be more worried.Conditions have been unfavorable in the caribbean all season and pretty much seem close for business.


While it's now starting to look like an El Nino could be declared by Christmas it's still technically neutral, albeit leaning to ENSO. Can't rule out at least one named storm by 30 Nov. NOAA's National Weather Service indicates a 65% chance of El Nino emerging in fall and early winter. Forecasters favor a weak event.
Quoting 265. islander101010:

sorry twc no thankx to naming winter storms. why? does anyone remember any names from last yrs winter storm assault? i dont. no one will forget sandy. so? why bother.


Living in Florida I could agree with you. However, ask folks in Colorado, N Dakota etc. if they remember tropical storm or hurricane names. A lot would say no. While I don't particularly care that TWC names winter storms, I guess it matters to those impacted by them.
274. beell
Did ya'll see the yesterday's string of #RejectedTWCNames on twitter yesterday?

Most of them lame but a few good ones.

My favorite: Winter Storm Ba-donk-a-donk - The worst part is the back side

Link
275. beell
Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's not an option, try again. :)


"Why?"
Quoting 255. washingtonian115:

If this was a la nina year or a neutral year I would be more worried.Conditions have been unfavorable in the caribbean all season and pretty much seem close for business.


At this time of year, I worry about a Hazel analog in DC metro area.

Severe weather is also possible. In Oct. 1993, a 100 mph downburst took out
most of the century old trees in my current neighborhood (this before I lived there)
and it went from heavily wooded to half open.
Parade of ULL's.

Saturday brings the highest chances of precipitation across central Florida.



Sunday most of Florida and the Eastcoast dries out. Only S. Florida and Maine has a decent chance of rain and that should be ending.
Rain chances for most of Florida will remain low through Wednesday.



Quoting 279. TropicalAnalystwx13:


AO going completely negative the driver of troughs and cold air advection.

A simple chart, not as sophisticated as yours TA.

Quoting 226. Dakster:



The snow is working its way down the mountains here, Keep...

Ice on the vehicles in the morning, but still gets warm enough to melt everything during the day.
where you live at keeper?
Hey guys, is El Nino coming? I remember the Kelvin Wave was returning but i do not know what happened after that.

Thanks
283. vis0

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Parade of ULL's.



Not sure if they are all ULL.
But they are sure lined up across the Northern Atlantic.
Quoting 282. GeorgiaStormz:

Hey guys, is El Nino coming? I remember the Kelvin Wave was returning but i do not know what happened after that.

Thanks



EL nino has stalled for right now



and CA is looking dryer and dryer for this comeing up rainey season
I find it absolutely amazing that NASA can build a device (whatever device, much less the sophisticated rapidscat) and launch it to outerspace for $30 million, while CNN reports that the first round of attacks on ISIS has cost the USA roughly $1 billion so far.
Quoting 265. islander101010:

sorry twc no thankx to naming winter storms. why? does anyone remember any names from last yrs winter storm assault? i dont. no one will forget sandy. so? why bother.
People won't remember any names from this years tropical season, besides for a few in the Carolinas. People will only remember the names of storms that greatly affected them, regardless of what season it was in. I, for example, will never forget Winter Storm Nemo.
Quoting 267. beell:



Put me down for Winter Storm "What?".




Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's not an option, try again. :)



Turn down for "What"
289. vis0

Quoting 251. MahFL:

That little low thingy is now ENE of Tampa.


a thingy off the thigny-ed that's a dangling participle? (BennyHill 101)

On the serious side, we'll have to wait for OFFICIAL Grothar blob (blobbette) watches in the next 2 wks.
2014-2015 CA wet season is looking like a repet from last year wish is not good


even no we are now in part one of are wet season wish ones from oct to DEC is loooking dry


how ever that could turn around in part 2 of are wet season wish runs from JAN too MAY some times part 1 can be vary dry why part too can be vary wet or they could end up being the same
Quoting 260. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Weather Channel has released this season's winter storm names:



TWC wants you to vote for the W name from a list including Warren, Wilda, Willie, Woden, or Wolf: Link


if u go to the link stevens comment is funny....
Morning. What's up with WU's NEXRAD?






Literally every one I've checked is doing it.
13 Day GFS has the wave and then has it crashing into Florida as a 955mb low. Haha!!

Fantasy Land Georgia Storms!
Quoting 272. win1gamegiantsplease:



Bozeman? Watch out Montana...



While it's now starting to look like an El Nino could be declared by Christmas it's still technically neutral, albeit leaning to ENSO. Can't rule out at least one named storm by 30 Nov. NOAA's National Weather Service indicates a 65% chance of El Nino emerging in fall and early winter. Forecasters favor a weak event.


Why wouldn't you want them to win them all???
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-011630-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
925 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.NOW...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERED OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL AND EXTENDED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WAS LINGERING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING THIS
MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
SHOULD BREAK OUT NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

AREAS SOUTHWARD TO AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL HAVE LESS MORNING
CLOUDINESS BUT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THERE TOO. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THERE.

WITH QUITE HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MORE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN YESTERDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

296. vis0

Quoting 260. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Weather Channel has released this season's winter storm names:



TWC wants you to vote for the W name from a list including Warren, Wilda, Willie, Woden, or Wolf: Link
i deem it "watchamacallit"  and all @TWC get a free box of 1990s  candy bar.
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:
I find it absolutely amazing that NASA can build a device (whatever device, much less the sophisticated rapidscat) and launch it to outerspace for $30 million, while CNN reports that the first round of attacks on ISIS has cost the USA roughly $1 billion so far.


Don't forget to include the rocket and Dragon capsule it went up on (RapidSCAT was a secondary payload, the main mission was for Dragon to deliver supplies to the ISS). That being said, seeing as the Falcon 9 is owned by a company called SpaceX, a company that's quickly becoming known for their low price and high performance launch vehicles and for their innovative approach to spaceflight, the cost all combined is still not too bad IMO. Future SpaceX launches will be even lower in price as rocket stages begin to be reused.
Quoting 283. vis0:




Well now isn't that just great!
I wake up this morning and the whole world is upside down!
:o)


is look like a rainbow to me
I remember none of the storms from last year.
Quoting 297. CybrTeddy:



Don't forget to include the rocket and Dragon capsule it went up on (RapidSCAT was a secondary payload, the main mission was for Dragon to deliver supplies to the ISS). That being said, seeing as the Falcon 9 is owned by a company called SpaceX, a company that's quickly becoming known for their low price and high performance launch vehicles and for their innovative approach to spaceflight, the cost all combined is still not too bad IMO. Future SpaceX launches will be even lower in price as rocket stages begin to be reused.
This is how Toyota ( Datsun ) became a big seller in the U.S.
Quoting 300. washingtonian115:

I remember none of the storms from last year.
Morning Wash...I remember it was fricken cold...more this year I believe.
CMC


GFS
304. vis0

Quoting 275. beell:



"Why?"
no!, he's on 1st
Quoting 302. hydrus:

Morning Wash...I remember it was fricken cold...more this year I believe.
Good morning Hydrus.I remember there was alot of snow.But names..Hmmmm I seem not to remember names..But this winter theirs a equal chance.But something is telling me it'll be another cold one.
Good morning

It's a beautiful, clear 84 feeling like 91 here on the island today. Three ships in so I'll be hibernating up here, refusing to go anywhere near downtown until after 5:00.

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy
Shields up Cap'n

Quoting 294. CumberlandPlateau:


Why wouldn't you want them to win them all???


I made the account when we were 0-6 last year and looked like my old high school team, felt desperate. They would win the week after I created it.
Quoting 301. hydrus:

This is how Toyota ( Datsun ) became a big seller in the U.S.


Datsun ---> Nissan, not Toyota, but yes. :)
Quoting 300. washingtonian115:

I remember none of the storms from last year.


That's because they weren't memorable :-)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
CMC


GFS


The GFS is more accurate.
The CMC low temperatures for my area are way off (too low by at least 10-15 degrees).
Quoting 298. RobDaHood:


Well now isn't that just great!
I wake up this morning and the whole world is upside down!
:o)


First time I've seen you here on Doc's blog in a long time!
Humidity: 91% Dew Point: 84 °F
Quoting 305. washingtonian115:

Good morning Hydrus.I remember there was alot of snow.But names..Hmmmm I seem not to remember names..But this winter theirs a equal chance.But something is telling me it'll be another cold one.


Fast forward to March 14 2015 DC metro

"23 snow days this season!! NINE SEPARATE EVENTS!! The kids will be in school till August!! The blasted white stuff
is four feet deep out the back window . Hadda shovel off the ROOF!! And there's another shortwave coming out of the Southwest..

names I'LL GIVE YOU SOME NAMES!!!"
This is not Godlikeproductions.com

Thanx
Quoting 312. GatorWX:



First time I've seen you here on Doc's blog in a long time!

Hey!
Yeah, I'm still around. I just read more than type lately.
Quoting 309. Naga5000:



Datsun ---> Nissan, not Toyota, but yes. :)
Datsun.. great cars back in the day! Always wanted a 240 Z!
Quoting 314. AlbertFish:

Panic in Ciudad del Carmen. Pulled a Ghanaian off a rig yesterday with "Ebola-like" symptoms. Brought him in on a chopper and then sat him with all the other patients in the emergency room at the General Hospital (aka Hospital of Death). God help us all if he really has Ebola (which I seriously doubt - he supposedly has already been working in Mexico for months).


Reuters says different.

Link
Quoting 307. Patrap:

Shields up Cap'n




Radar loops are making me twitchy! Might just be this strong coffee though.



Phanfone



GFS has stuck to this solution for a few days now. @ 114 hrs



GFS threatens Japan with the next one (204 hrs), but dissipates it before striking the island.



GFS also eventually turns Phanfone into a powerful extratropical cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska.

Quoting 309. Naga5000:



Datsun ---> Nissan, not Toyota, but yes. :)
Thank you..Its been a while...:)
Quoting 318. JNFlori30A:

Datsun.. great cars back in the day! Always wanted a 240 Z!



One of my favorite cheap sports cars, although they've appreciated considerably in the last decade. Beautiful little car!


Hey,Hey,Mamma'

Quoting 310. georgevandenberghe:



That's because they weren't memorable :-)
I remember the storms but not the names.
Quoting 319. LongIslandBeaches:



Reuters says different.

Link


Just going by the local newspapers, who claimed he has headache, muscle/joint pain, high fever, diarrhea, and "profuse bleeding". No surprise that the Mexican government would downplay it, since they know that there are no decent medical facilities to deal with Ebola in or around Cd. del Carmen, and don't want to start a panic. I wouldn't take a dog to the general hospital. But, like I said, they also claim that he has been working in Mexico for months, so his chances for Ebola are probably close to zero. In the end they will diagnose him with either anemia, hypertension or kidney problems, the only diagnoses ever made here. Possibly mal de ojo.
Quoting 283. vis0:





I take it that low is non-tropical, right? I've always wanted to see a tropical cyclone develop off the west coast of South America.
Quoting 327. CybrTeddy:



I take it that low is non-tropical, right? I've always wanted to see a tropical cyclone develop off the west coast of South America.



have you noted he has the map up side down lol

Possible Tropical trouble just South of Cuba still there on todays GFS
Quoting 323. Patrap:



Hey,Hey,Mamma'


its gonna rain

Phanfone is growing and forecast to be a large cat-4..

nice ITCZ impulse coming across south atlantic

Quoting 322. GatorWX:



One of my favorite cheap sports cars, although they've appreciated considerably in the last decade. Beautiful little car!
Pretty quick too, considering the only had a straight 6.
Quoting 331. hydrus:

Phanfone is growing and forecast to be a large cat-4..



The ECMWF brings this down to 906mb, and the GFS brings this down to 928mb. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Category 5 equivalent typhoon. Upper-level outflow is fantastic in all directions except to the northeast.
335. vis0

Quoting 324. washingtonian115:

I remember the storms but not the names.

When people go through sudden natural extremes (be it weather, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions etcs) they remember 2 things;
where they were & what they where doing.

Therefore if TWch wants us to buy their Advertized products (its a demoxcrazy -Tazbot) i mean remember the names try names like "changing the baby", "coming home from work (via the bar)".

By the aforementioned reasoning we tend not to remember, even think of long term affects therefore in the logs of history we should call the man made millennium of affects on nature the  "out to lunch" century/era.

BTW, "etcs" are the worst.

...and now back to your regularly scheduled program...toyota, nissan, its too wet, its too dry, i don't know...3rd base...



Quoting 331. hydrus:

Phanfone is growing and forecast to be a large cat-4..




Major cyclone soon nice twist likely mid point c2 now
Quoting 296. vis0:


i deem it "watchamacallit"  and all @TWC get a free box of 1990s  candy bar.

Much better than Winter Storm Frona or Zelus
I see yer back how was the trip

Quoting 318. JNFlori30A:

Datsun.. great cars back in the day! Always wanted a 240 Z!



I was in high school when these came out. I'm was not and am not into sports cars and have had some kind of station wagon most of my life but the Z was a neat little car that looked perfect for the niche.
Rainy day in S FL!

345. vis0

Quoting 332. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice ITCZ impulse coming across south atlantic


WELL YOU PAH-LEAZE STRAIGHTEN OUT THE U.S > , everything is falling out of it.

ah memories of opening the fresh new box of cap'n'crunch and turning it over into a little bowl to get to the surprise at the bottom**, then trying to figure out how a cup of milk will wet a overflowing bowl of sugar i mean cereal.

**whomever came up with the idea of the prize at the bottom is a genius, made cereal companies rich.
Quoting 341. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I see yer back how was the trip




We had a great time, but it was just a little too much for me. I'm very tired. It was wonderful seeing people I hadn't seen in over 50 years.
Quoting 333. hydrus:

Pretty quick too, considering the only had a straight 6.

Pretty quick, yes. Power:weight! Ever see the performance specs of some of the old Lotus's? The Europa Twin Cam, for example, did 0-100 km/h in under 6 seconds with a 126hp "Big Valve" 1.56L I4. The Elise is a good modern day example. My dad had a couple Triumph TR6's, which had a torquey 2.5L I6. I had a 1st gen 1.8L Miata and put about $3500 into it. Ran about 145hp and 0-100 km/h ~7.2 seconds after. Stock was 130, 0-100 km/h in 7.9. At 2100 lbs, I deemed it unfortunately heavy for such a small car.

Back on track, sorry.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
As it stands presently...






Eye keeps trying to clear, but intensity has seemed fairly level for last 12 hours or so.
What is the other little feature to the SE of Phanfone?

Quoting 350. Grothar:

What is the other little feature to the SE of Phanfone?



Should be the next typhoon...Vongfong.
352. vis0

Quoting 347. GatorWX:


Pretty quick, yes. Power:weight! Ever see the performance specs of some of the old Lotus's? The Europa Twin Cam, for example, did 0-100 km/h in under 6 seconds with a 126hp "Big Valve" 1.56L I4. The Elise is a good modern day example. My dad had a couple Triumph TR6's, which had a torquey 2.5L I6. I had a 1st gen 1.8L Miata and put about $3500 into it. Ran about 145hp and 0-100 km/h ~7 seconds after. Stock was 130, 0-100 km/h in 7.9. At 2100 lbs, I deemed it unfortunately heavy for such a small car.

Back on track, sorry.





the "car" over FL. is not a LOW its Grothar getting back home. (ahrrRUUUga, horn)
Quoting 352. vis0:





the "car" over FL. is not a LOW its Grothar getting back home. (ahrrRUUUga, horn)



I see Gro got a new car finally...

Are we calling the Atlantic season done yet? (I know, we still have until the end of November). And assuming no one expects to see a Major Hurricane. Not that it is impossible, just not probable.
Quoting LargoFl:


It's just a dream Largo... just a dream. You can go back to that nice nap. :)
Afternoon all.

I see some very exciting news in the Doc's blog post today. Here's hoping we get our newest "toy" up and running before we head into the 2015 season....