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Invest 97L Spinning Near Bermuda; Phanfone a Potential Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:27 PM GMT on September 29, 2014

An area of low pressure (Invest 97L) has formed just west of Bermuda, and is bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the island. At 9:45 am AST Monday, the Bermuda Airport reported a waterspout. Winds have gusted as high as 39 mph on the island this morning, and 0.47" of rain had fallen between midnight at 11 am local time on Monday. Satellite loops and Bermuda radar show that 97L has a pronounced low-level spin, but very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms near the center of circulation. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band 100 - 150 miles to the northeast of the center, and this structure is characteristic of a subtropical storm, not a tropical storm. With wind shear expected to stay a moderate 15 - 20 knots through Monday night, there is a small window of opportunity for 97L to develop into a subtropical cyclone before wind shear rises to a prohibitive 30 - 45 knots on Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30%.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at approximately 1 pm EDT Monday September 29, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific's Rachel no threat
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Rachel peaked as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds on Sunday morning off the Pacific coast of Baja Mexico, and is now on a weakening trend due to steadily increasing wind shear. Rachel will move little this week and dissipate without affecting any land areas. Rachel's formation gives the Eastern Pacific east of 140°W 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with three of those named storms and one hurricane occurring after September 25.

Another area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) was located near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday morning, and was headed slowly west-northwest to northwest. This disturbance has good support from all three of our top tropical cyclone genesis models to develop late this week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 70%, respectively. 90E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico throughout the week.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Rachel, taken at approximately 6 pm EDT Sunday September 28, 2014. At the time, Rachel was a Category 1 storm with top sustained winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Phanfone a potential threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Phanfone is steadily intensifying as it heads west-northwest at 13 mph towards the Northern Mariana Islands. Phanfone is expected to be near Category 1 typhoon strength when is passes about 250 miles north of Guam near 18 UTC on Tuesday. The storm is expected to intensify into a major typhoon, possibly a super typhoon, late in the week, and the 00Z Monday run of the GFS model shows the storm coming very close to the coast of Japan this weekend.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at 97L in his Monday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters. Love the blog.
Thanks Dr. Jeff Masters.
thanx doc......while rachel is no threat to land...her rain bands are welcome in the southwest
Its not okay to be a follower GT.Thanks Doc.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Thanks Jeff...
I'd say chances of excessive rain are diminishing as this blow off streams ashore. All it's doing is keeping temps down and isn't going to contribute much to any rain gauges. Perhaps a few isolated 3-4"+, but I wouldn't expect it to be too widespread.

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Phanfone



it seems the storm GFS is predicting is a pacific storm that jumps central america and goes under cuba ..
Thank You Dr...............The Pacific basin continues to produce this Northern Hemisphere Summer. Hope that a super typhoon does not impact Japan later in the week or any of the other populated areas over there.

Here is the current location of Phanfone for reference:

Thanks Doc.

Looks closed to me. STD 7 or STS Fay?
Rachael.
Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC
ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20140929 1200 UTC
Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)
PHANFONE 20140929 1200 13.3 150.0 998.2 37.1
PHANFONE 20140929 1800 13.9 149.3 995.6 36.5
PHANFONE 20140930 0000 14.7 148.5 997.5 37.0
PHANFONE 20140930 0600 15.3 147.6 993.2 36.7
PHANFONE 20140930 1200 15.9 146.0 994.9 41.9
PHANFONE 20140930 1800 16.4 145.2 990.3 40.7
PHANFONE 20141001 0000 17.0 144.0 991.1 44.3
PHANFONE 20141001 0600 17.9 142.8 987.6 44.4
PHANFONE 20141001 1200 18.4 141.4 989.0 45.7
PHANFONE 20141001 1800 18.6 139.9 985.7 41.3
PHANFONE 20141002 0000 18.6 138.7 986.5 41.0
PHANFONE 20141002 0600 18.7 137.7 982.6 39.2
PHANFONE 20141002 1200 18.7 136.6 983.2 41.4
Note: wind speed is max wind at 10m in kts
Quoting 653. Tazmanian:




dont get your hops up on that


Oh they're not, I'm terrible at basketball lol. OTOH I don't think making it to G is out of the question. Despite the MJO not looking favorable for the Atlantic upper level winds are starting to die down in the Caribbean, water temps will be above the threshold for most of October...all that needs to happen is a typical low trough to trigger development.
Quoting 13. Andrebrooks:


Looks closed to me. STD 7 or STS Fay?

Invest 97L until it gains more convection.
Thanks Doc !
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 97L until it gains more convection.

Looks like it in this picture.
Quoting 19. Andrebrooks:


Looks like it in this picture.


Thank you doc (and hello folks). Poor Japan is really threatened by a lot of catastrophies. Now Phanfone, doh.

Moreover and once again obviously very bad flooding in Southern France is happening right now. Look here, more than 200mm (nearly 8 inches) in the last 24h in some places, probably Montpellier:


Saved pic. Click to enlarge. Source for updates.

Photo of the flooding: Meteo Europe: More shocking scenes are coming in from Montpellier in France, very bad #flooding! #orage
Photo courtesy of Twitter user @SebM_DDM





Th e Hydrologic Cycle
Water is recycled over and over again, always passing through some stage of the hydrologic
cycle. In fact, the water you drink today is the same water that the dinosaurs drank.
Water on earth moves through a continuous cycle called the hydrologic cycle.
The sun’s energy moves water into the sky through evaporation
from soil and surface waters and through transpiration from
plants. The water then falls back to the earth where the
cycle begins again.
Aquifers play an important role in the
hydrologic cycle by storing and moving water
that seeps deep into the ground. Though it
may take hundreds or thousands of years,
ground water eventually reaches the surface
through discharge to begin the cycle again.
Quoting 22. barbamz:

Thank you doc (and hello folks). Poor Japan is really threatened by a lot of catastrophies. Now Phanfone, doh.

Moreover and once again obviously very bad flooding in Southern France is happening right now. Look here, more than 200mm (nearly 8 inches) in the last 24h in some places, probably Montpellier:



Photo of the flooding: Meteo Europe: More shocking scenes are coming in from Montpellier in France, very bad #flooding! #orage
Photo courtesy of Twitter user @SebM_DDM








Seems like the same areas in the world this year can't catch any breaks


maybe going up to 50% at 2pm
thanks for the lunch time read

have a good day doc


indian summer will come to an end soon
Quoting 26. hurricanes2018:



maybe going up to 50% at 2pm

No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
‎Today, ‎September ‎29, ‎2014, ‏‎12 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
As of Mon, 29 Sep 2014 16:15:03 GMT
Quoting Andrebrooks:

Looks closed to me. STD 7 or STS Fay?

Yes but needs a bit more convection however

Quoting LargoFl:
it seems the storm GFS is predicting is a pacific storm that jumps central america and goes under cuba ..


Nah
Look at it from the 850 vort
Meh.

Quoting 28. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



indian summer will come to an end soon
Yep...

Quoting 33. CybrTeddy:

Meh.


thinking that's just gonna sit there spinning and slowly drift away ne ward over the next few days
Quoting 27. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thanks for the lunch time read

have a good day doc


Breakfast here... Kids are not even at school yet, but anyways - any more model support for the "gfs" potential Cayman/Cuba storm?

I see mother nature is keeping things hot and wet for me in Miami...
Think someone switched labels on UKMET and CMC data :)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 32.6N 66.4W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2014 12 33.0N 66.8W 1009 23
1200UTC 30.09.2014 24 34.7N 66.8W 1008 24
0000UTC 01.10.2014 36 38.7N 66.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 01.10.2014 48 40.9N 62.1W 1004 34
0000UTC 02.10.2014 60 TOO WEAK TO TRACK

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 30.9N 75.4W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2014 36 31.0N 74.7W 1008 19
1200UTC 01.10.2014 48 31.1N 72.0W 1009 20
0000UTC 02.10.2014 60 31.0N 68.7W 1010 19
1200UTC 02.10.2014 72 TOO WEAK TO TRACK

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.9N 17.5W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2014 108 11.9N 17.5W 1009 25
1200UTC 04.10.2014 120 12.5N 19.9W 1007 32
0000UTC 05.10.2014 132 13.4N 23.6W 1008 27
1200UTC 05.10.2014 144 13.5N 26.7W 1009 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 34.1N 75.1W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2014 132 34.1N 75.1W 1004 29
1200UTC 05.10.2014 144 36.8N 71.9W 1002 40
Sorry, if the following news already had been posted (I wasn't around the last days very often), but some days ago a remarkable storm surge or probably meteotsunami happened at the northeastern coast of Turkey (Black Sea). Date isn't quite clear in the internet, but according to a Turkish weather site on Facebook it should have been Sept 24.

Watch here their video of the huge waves.
Taken in Giresun.

Here is an amazing compilation of several cams (comment at the beginning is from a TWC coverage I guess); Caption and title aren't right as the Black Sea is at the northern coast of Turkey and not at the southern side:



Edit: Here is a turkish compilation from Sept 24 (taken in above mentioned Giresun):



Culprit probably was this system over the Black Sea/Ukraine (Sept 24).

What an impressive satellite image of a powerful upper low rotating over E Ukraine ( SW Russia today. Central pressure is near or slightly below 990mb. It's associated with excessive rainfall.
Source: EUMETSAT Source: SevereWeather/Europe.
39. vis0
Thank you Dr. Masters
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Storms to the south, west, and north of Alaska.
Nasty morning in Barrow with light rain/drizzle temperature 34 degrees.
High Surf Advisory with storm surge of 1-2 feet.
If GFS wants to compete toe to toe with the Euro,it has to have a big upgrade. That is all I have to say about the model that is now a joke.
City of Giresun in the storm surge post #38.



Quoting 32. wunderkidcayman:


Yes but needs a bit more convection however



Nah
Look at it from the 850 vort

I don't know why people insist on posting images of the GFS 240+ hours out. It obviously is having serious issues this season forecasting genesis in the Western Caribbean. The only time it will be useful this season is if a storm has actually formed or we see some type of low forecasts in the 6-7 day window.
Quoting 41. Tropicsweatherpr:

If GFS wants to compete toe to toe with the Euro,it has to have a big upgrade. That is all I have to say about the model that is now a joke.


Would that be the Euro model that has:

IN FACT, THE EC MOS 99F FOR SAN FRANCISCO DAY 4 IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE DOWNSIDE OF DETERMINISM IN THIS CASE.

Link
Quoting 43. boltdwright:


I don't know why people insist on posting images of the GFS 240 hours out. It obviously is having serious issues this season forecasting genesis in the Western Caribbean. The only time it will be useful this season is if a storm has actually formed or we see some type of low forecasts in the 6-7 day window.


Nobody seems to quite get that model runs showing cyclone formation over 5 days out are essentially irrelevant. No matter how many times Dr. Masters or anyone else speaks to it, people still insist on posting them with "DOOM!!" comments. I just ignore those posts and let those people have their fun. I also don't quite understand why some people here seem to want to see the death and destruction that comes with a landfalling hurricane. It's disturbing.
Quoting 42. Sfloridacat5:

City of Giresun in the storm surge post #38.




storm force swells piled up along the coast from nw I reckon causing a significant wave height to impact the shore area
Quoting 46. tampabaymatt:



Nobody seems to quite get that model runs showing cyclone formation over 5 days out are essentially irrelevant. No matter how many times Dr. Masters or anyone else speaks to it, people still insist on posting them with "DOOM!!" comments. I just ignore those posts and let those people have their fun. I also don't quite understand why some people here seem to want to see the death and destruction that comes with a landfalling hurricane. It's disturbing.
Some people are desperate to see a Florida hurricane.The GFS wants a Caribbean system so bad that its failing to see reality.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
storm force swells piled up along the coast from nw I reckon causing a significant wave height to impact the shore area


Pretty impressive for sure. That first video looked just like a hurricane/tropical storm surge. The Black Sea is over 7000 ft. deep with a pretty large fetch.
The shape of the coast probably played into it.



Quoting 46. tampabaymatt:



Nobody seems to quite get that model runs showing cyclone formation over 5 days out are essentially irrelevant. No matter how many times Dr. Masters or anyone else speaks to it, people still insist on posting them with "DOOM!!" comments. I just ignore those posts and let those people have their fun. I also don't quite understand why some people here seem to want to see the death and destruction that comes with a landfalling hurricane. It's disturbing.


I would love to know how many systems the GFS has spun up this year outside of 5 days? Probably 30 or more. The GFS did the same thing early in the season with long range spin ups in the Caribbean that never materialized.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have decreased in coverage since this
morning. Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development tonight and Tuesday, and the likelihood of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation has decreased. This system is expected
to move generally northward during the next couple of days with
increasing forward speed. Regardless of development, the low could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds over Bermuda through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have decreased in coverage since this
morning. Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development tonight and Tuesday, and the likelihood of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation has decreased. This system is expected
to move generally northward during the next couple of days with
increasing forward speed. Regardless of development, the low could
produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds over Bermuda through
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Here comes Simon in EPAC.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico, has increased this morning. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while
the system drifts west-northwestward or northwestward. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance could produce
locally heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico that could
cause flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

...Facebook logo
Account Temporarily Unavailable.
Your account is currently unavailable due to a site issue. We expect this to be resolved shortly. Please try again in a few minutes.

I wonder if the "site issue" is that I posted: "Facebook Sucks!" Too often.... Heh heh heh
Gallery with countless photos from the ongoing severe flooding in Southern France (departement Herault) due to stationary strong thunderstorms, see post #22:

Intempéries dans l'Hérault : les images
Quoting LargoFl:
it seems the storm GFS is predicting is a pacific storm that jumps central america and goes under cuba ..


The Atlantic Hurricane season has been so pathetic I'd believe this scenario (storm that comes from Pacific into Caribbean) more than a storm that forms in the Caribbean
Quoting 38. barbamz:

Sorry, if the following news already had been posted (I wasn't around the last days very often), but some days ago a remarkable storm surge or probably meteotsunami happened at the northeastern coast of Turkey (Black Sea). Date isn't quite clear in the internet, but according to a Turkish weather site on Facebook it should have been Sept 24.

Watch here their video of the huge waves.
Taken in Giresun.

Here is an amazing compilation of several cams (comment at the beginning is from a TWC coverage I guess); Caption and title aren't right as the Black Sea is at the northern coast of Turkey and not at the southern side:



Edit: Here is a turkish compilation from Sept 24 (taken in above mentioned Giresun):



Culprit probably was this system over the Black Sea/Ukraine (Sept 24).

What an impressive satellite image of a powerful upper low rotating over E Ukraine ( SW Russia today. Central pressure is near or slightly below 990mb. It's associated with excessive rainfall.
Source: EUMETSAT Source: SevereWeather/Europe.


Wow! That's wild. The Black Sea. Apparently they aimed HAARP the wrong direction. Russia's Black Sea Fleet is in Crimea, to the north. Kidding. I hope everyone's ok. That's some serious stuff. Enormous waves for the 'little' Black Sea. On top of the obvious wind that pushed all that water, undersea geography, I would assume, played a role. I wonder how vast the surge was or if it was fairly localized, at least regarding that intensity. Very interesting and thanks for sharing Barb.
Quoting 54. CaicosRetiredSailor:

...Facebook logo
Account Temporarily Unavailable.
Your account is currently unavailable due to a site issue. We expect this to be resolved shortly. Please try again in a few minutes.

I wonder if the "site issue" is that I posted: "Facebook Sucks!" Too often.... Heh heh heh


Mine loads, must be what you said. What kind of boat did you sail?
Quoting 57. GatorWX:



Wow! That's wild. The Black Sea. Apparently they aimed HAARP the wrong direction. Russia's Black Sea Fleet is in Crimea, to the north. Kidding. I hope everyone's ok. That's some serious stuff. Enormous waves for the 'little' Black Sea. On top of the obvious wind that pushed all that water, undersea geography, I would assume, played a role. I wonder how vast the surge was or if it was fairly localized, at least regarding that intensity. Very interesting and thanks for sharing Barb.


Always very welcome, Josh :-) When is your next visit to Europe? The region of "your" Barcelona got some severe weather in these weeks as well btw.
Flood Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1241 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

GAC007-095-205-291945-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FA.Y.0053.140929T1641Z-140929T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MITCHELL GA-BAKER GA-DOUGHERTY GA-
1241 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGHERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
EASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PELHAM...CAMILLA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 1239 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED AN AREA
OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SOME FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN LOW LYING SPOTS...URBAN AREAS...OR SMALLER
STREAMS AND CREEKS. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...
DON`T DROWN.

REPORT FLOODING OR FLOOD DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3...OR CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

Quoting GatorWX:


Wow! That's wild. The Black Sea. Apparently they aimed HAARP the wrong direction. Russia's Black Sea Fleet is in Crimea, to the north. Kidding. I hope everyone's ok. That's some serious stuff. Enormous waves for the 'little' Black Sea. On top of the obvious wind that pushed all that water, undersea geography, I would assume, played a role. I wonder how vast the surge was or if it was fairly localized, at least regarding that intensity. Very interesting and thanks for sharing Barb.


Yeah, the Black Sea is like a big deep bowl. Most of the Black Sea is very deep.

Underwater Geography of the Black Sea.

Quoting 57. GatorWX:



Wow! That's wild. The Black Sea. Apparently they aimed HAARP the wrong direction. Russia's Black Sea Fleet is in Crimea, to the north. Kidding. I hope everyone's ok. That's some serious stuff. Enormous waves for the 'little' Black Sea. On top of the obvious wind that pushed all that water, undersea geography, I would assume, played a role. I wonder how vast the surge was or if it was fairly localized, at least regarding that intensity. Very interesting and thanks for sharing Barb.


You will set off the conspiracy theorists now !

:)
Pouring here in South Fort Myers. One small but heavy shower right over my location.
Quoting 63. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, the Black Sea is like a big deep bowl. Most of the Black Sea is very deep.

Underwater Geography of the Black Sea.




Black Sea deluge hypothesis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Black Sea deluge is a hypothesized catastrophic rise in the level of the Black Sea circa 5600 BC due to waters from the Mediterranean Sea breaching a sill in the Bosporus Strait. The hypothesis was headlined when The New York Times published it in December 1996, shortly before it was published in an academic journal. While it is agreed that the sequence of events described did occur, there is debate over the suddenness, dating and magnitude of the events. Two opposing hypotheses have arisen to explain the rise of the Black Sea: gradual, and oscillating. ...

Probably you all know of this exciting theory.

I once travelled Black Sea along the northern coast of Turkey for two days on a ship where the canalisation was broken. No fun, huh, lol.
Quoting barbamz:


Black Sea deluge hypothesis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Black Sea deluge is a hypothesized catastrophic rise in the level of the Black Sea circa 5600 BC due to waters from the Mediterranean Sea breaching a sill in the Bosporus Strait. The hypothesis was headlined when The New York Times published it in December 1996, shortly before it was published in an academic journal. While it is agreed that the sequence of events described did occur, there is debate over the suddenness, dating and magnitude of the events. Two opposing hypotheses have arisen to explain the rise of the Black Sea: gradual, and oscillating. ...

Probably you all know of this exciting theory.

I once travelled Black Sea along the northern coast of Turkey for two days on a ship where the canalisation was broken. No fun, huh, lol.


Very interesting body of water. I liked reading about the vertical salinity of the Sea.
In two of the vids, including the one in the fb link, the combination of the wedge between the jetty and the point caused part of the chaos. Essentially the point break (underwater raised floor extending from point causes water to increase suddenly in height) and jetty caused the swell to pile in that small area and probably other areas with similar geography. In the fb vid I referenced as well as TWC vid ("We need to find out what caused this." lol), the same green wagon is visible. Also, on fb video, the building in the image below, with the red and steel roof, left of blue roof, is visible. This building may be the fire station as there are long red trucks parked outside. I'm impressed by the power of that swell though!

Wish it had enough convection.
Thank you Dr. Masters....Still, so far so good
Quoting 60. barbamz:



Always very welcome, Josh :-) When is your next visit to Europe? The region of "your" Barcelona got some severe weather in these weeks as well btw.


I was going to go to Prague, but decided I was moving to California, so that plan went up in smoke. I imagine I'll go in the next year or two if I don't get too tied down. Need to stack some change in order to go back to Europe! It's been a year and a few days now since I returned from Spain. Oh how I loved it. My life goal now is to open a restaurant on Las Ramblas or somewhere nearby. The quality of the restaurants in that tourist area were horrible! Sedna, just north, across from the harbor was very good and we found a little Mexican restaurant tucked away in the Gothic Quarter with the best food of the trip. I really fell in love with the city and the people. Incredibly different than the US. They could use a quality restaurant on Las Ramblas though, : ) I'd need to first open a successful restaurant here in the states or become a very successful executive chef. Some day!!!
18z Best Track for 90E.

EP, 90, 2014092918, , BEST, 0, 131N, 956W, 25, 1008, DB
Quoting 63. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, the Black Sea is like a big deep bowl. Most of the Black Sea is very deep.

Underwater Geography of the Black Sea.




Thanks. Saw you say 7000 ft before. It's interesting as it doesn't appear the wind is extreme or in line with the power of the swell, so I assumed both underwater and the land geography played a big role. Likely the shore is a steep bank. Think east coast of FL compared to ours.

Quoting 64. VR46L:



You will set off the conspiracy theorists now !

:)




Someone's gotta stir the pot ;)
The GFS takes the Florida Low and combines it with 97L. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.


tw.50w..turning
Quoting 68. Sfloridacat5:



Very interesting body of water. I liked reading about the vertical salinity of the Sea.


Indeed. I didn't know anything of it until now, too, lol.
Quoting 48. washingtonian115:
Some people are desperate to see a Florida hurricane.The GFS wants a Caribbean system so bad that its failing to see reality.


So the GFS must stand for Guessing Forecasting System.

I really hope it is wrong though...again.
Quoting 69. GatorWX:

(...) This building may be the fire station as there are long red trucks parked outside. I'm impressed by the power of that swell though!




You're a true (Investi)Gator, lol! And goooood luck with your restaurant scheme in Europe (and first in the US). Hope to be your guest sometime in Barcelona, if I'm not too old to travel at that future time :-)
lots of rain on the east coast today
Quoting 80. barbamz:



You're a true (Invesiti)Gator, lol! And goooood luck with your restaurant scheme in Europe (and first in the US). Hope to be your guest sometime in Barcelona, if I'm not too old to travel at that future time :-)


Ha! Well, if it ever happens, you're invited! I don't ever want to be too old to travel! Been all over this country, but haven't ventured too much outside the country. I want to see it all!
Hmmm...perhaps meander about and be a wavemaker OBX northward. Skunked again south of OBX!


Quoting 75. Sfloridacat5:

The GFS takes the Florida Low and combines it with 97L. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.



Yeah Gator, dream big man.

Quoting 80. barbamz:



You're a true (Invesiti)Gator, lol! And goooood luck with your restaurant scheme in Europe (and first in the US). Hope to be your guest sometime in Barcelona, if I'm not too old to travel at that future time :-)
poof
look like dry air hitting invest 97L and cooler water soon.
Quoting 72. GatorWX:



I was going to go to Prague, but decided I was moving to California, so that plan went up in smoke. I imagine I'll go in the next year or two if I don't get too tied down. Need to stack some change in order to go back to Europe! It's been a year and a few days now since I returned from Spain. Oh how I loved it. My life goal now is to open a restaurant on Las Ramblas or somewhere nearby. The quality of the restaurants in that tourist area were horrible! Sedna, just north, across from the harbor was very good and we found a little Mexican restaurant tucked away in the Gothic Quarter with the best food of the trip. I really fell in love with the city and the people. Incredibly different than the US. They could use a quality restaurant on Las Ramblas though, : ) I'd need to first open a successful restaurant here in the states or become a very successful executive chef. Some day!!!


Always rootin for you man..love your whole attitude on philosophy and love of life.


lots of spin but no go
Quoting 84. HaoleboySurfEC:

Yeah Gator, dream big man.




Quoting 87. Wolfberry:



Always rootin for you man..love your whole attitude on philosophy and love of life.


Thank you. Gotta make dreams into reality or they'll forever just be dreams. It's why I'm moving to Central CA. So many more opportunities for what I want to do with food.
Quoting 82. GatorWX:



Ha! Well, if it ever happens, you're invited! I don't ever want to be too old to travel! Been all over this country, but haven't ventured too much outside the country. I want to see it all!


Okay then, go on, Gator, and don't miss your plane to the world, lol!

Good night guys from my side with:

1. Current European airmasses, showing the wet blobs over the western Mediterranean, and the European rainfall radar showing more in the offing.





2. Current saved webcam view of the ongoing eruption in Iceland - exactly one month ago they've started - with the remains of the first snow in the foreground (Iceland experienced very strong gales and bad weather today which obviously melted the first white glory). Lava output is relentless as well as the daily strong earthquakes in the nearby subsiding large caldera of Bardarbunga under the glacier. Nobody knows how this will end.



Nice site with several plots.


Univ. of Iceland @uni_iceland
Winter has arrived at #Holuhraun eruption site. Credit: Kerstin Langenberger

3. A loop from developing Phanfone in the WPac, to stay on topic at least once :-)



Quoting 90. barbamz:



Okay then, go on, Gator, and don't miss your plane to the world, lol!


Have a good evening Barb!
Quoting 89. GatorWX:





Thank you. Gotta make dreams into reality or they'll forever just be dreams. It's why I'm moving to Central CA. So many more opportunities for what I want to do with food.


If I were you I would wait until the next decent and enduring rains in CA at least, Gator. What do you want to cook if stuff stops growing? (Hope not of course!).

G'night/evening, Gator, as well :-)
Since WINTER is right around the corner it its interesting hearing abut the SNOW forecast.Now some people's favorite met (if that's what you like to call him) JB said that he sees another cold and SNOWY winter setting up.If the Pacific waters don't cool down maybe we could have another SNOWY winter in the works.I'm hoping so.I really enjoyed seeing the beautiful SNOW that we had this winter.Most of our SNOW storms were of the light and powdery variety.The valentines day SNOW storm wasn't.It was heavy.

Quoting 59. GatorWX:



Mine loads, must be what you said. What kind of boat did you sail?


Many different ones from 18 ft. To 134 ft. Both power and sail.
Sep .29, 2014 3:15 pm ET
South |
- Overall, expect a drier Tuesday across much of the region.
- Showers and thunderstorms will erupt along parts of the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast and around the Florida peninsula, however.
- Tuesday high temperatures will generally top out in the 80s across the region.
Northeast |
- Some widely scattered morning thunderstorms are likely across western sections of New York and Pennsylvania.
- This activity will weaken as it moves into central New York and Pennsylvania from midday to early afternoon and to eastern sections of these stated later in the day.
- A few showers are possible across coastal sections of New England, as well.
- New England highs will range from the 50s in the north to the 60s to around 70 farther south.
- The remainder of the region should top off mainly in the 70s, with a few low 80s around the Baltimore-Washington area.


rain moving north
Are you doing the Happy Dance now Washi?
Quoting 92. barbamz:



If I were you I would wait until the next decent and enduring rains in CA at least, Gator. What do you want to cook if stuff stops growing? (Hope not of course!).

G'night/evening, Gator, as well :-)


As always, thank you for keeping us up to date on European weather. Have a good night.
21:00 UTC warning graphic for TS Phanfone. Winds up to 45kts and peak intensity is 125kts.

Couldn't last a whole day without posting about snow..LOL..and I even gave you a week..

Dont you ever ever ever (Chris Tucker impression) talk about what other bloggers post especially Floridians..

I needed that laugh though stressful day at work..thanks..LOL

Quoting 98. Dakster:

Are you doing the Happy Dance now Washi?
Well the SNOW post was a slap in the face to someone who has become more obsessed with it then me :).but anyway so far I've been checking on some winter forecast.Both Pro's and non Pro's.This winter is like a coin flip because it can go both ways.However in my un-professional opinion something is telling me it'll be another cold one and possibly SNOWY one.I wouldn't mind another one like last year.I got 62 or 63 inches.I wrote it down somewhere.Downtown got 32.1 inch because of the heat island.Some places saw 80 inches for this winter.Not bad and waaaaaay above what 011-12 and 012-013 produced in the D.C area.In total I got 7 inches from both winters combined.
Sieges are like Stunami's, but they happen in Gulfs and even fresh water great lakes.
Quoting 94. CaicosRetiredSailor:



Many different ones from 18 ft. To 134 ft. Both power and sail.


Pretty grainy old pic, but this was my dad's 1930 John Alden yawl. It was always my favorite of the boats he had. The only other true liveaboard he had was a 32 Prairie Cutter. Good, blue water boat, but ugly! We rode out Hurricane Erin on the wooden Alden though. That was an experience! We were in the marina, but nonetheless.... We sailed it out to the Bahamas a few times and once to PR. Only sailboats I've had were a sunfish and a little Cape Dory, which was a nice little learning boat. Those were some fun days. Now I've settled for a cheap kayak. Least I'm still on the water and I can launch it from a dock across the road from my house.

...had a more than 30' boom. I remember him and his buddies had like 6-8 girls laying in the sail like a giant hammock. Unfortunately the prop shaft leaked (was glassed over, so out of site) and it rotted out the center beam from inside out. Would've cost him a fortune to fix it and he was forced to get rid of it.
Quoting 93. washingtonian115:

Since WINTER is right around the corner it its interesting hearing abut the SNOW forecast.Now some people's favorite met (if that's what you like to call him) JB said that he sees another cold and SNOWY winter setting up.If the Pacific waters don't cool down maybe we could have another SNOWY winter in the works.I'm hoping so.I really enjoyed seeing the beautiful SNOW that we had this winter.Most of our SNOW storms were of the light and powdery variety.The valentines day SNOW storm wasn't.It was heavy.




Probably one of the few times I'll actually agree with JB. The northern pacific anomaly has persisted for quite some time now and there doesn't appear any sign that it's going away anytime soon. The warm anomalies are quite strong, with 3C+ regions spanning across decent portions of the ocean.

That's a lot of additional energy for storm systems to tap into.
Quoting 102. washingtonian115:

Well the SNOW post was a slap in the face to someone who has become more obsessed with it then me :).but anyway so far I've been checking on some winter forecast.Both Pro's and non Pro's.This winter is like a coin flip because it can go both ways.However in my un-professional opinion something is telling me it'll be another cold one and possibly SNOWY one.I wouldn't mind another one like last year.I got 62 or 63 inches.I wrote it down somewhere.Downtown got 32.1 inch because of the heat island.Some places saw 80 inches for this winter.Not bad and waaaaaay above what 011-12 and 012-013 produced in the D.C area.In total I got 7 inches from both winters combined.


I was thinking the analog year was 1976-77 but if that's so the western ridge/eastern trough pattern better lock in soon as it did that year (late September on.. and on.. and on.. .. to late Feb 77 when it dramatically broke ]
Quoting 106. Xyrus2000:



Probably one of the few times I'll actually agree with JB. The northern pacific anomaly has persisted for quite some time now and there doesn't appear any sign that it's going away anytime soon. The warm anomalies are quite strong, with 3C+ regions spanning across decent portions of the ocean.

That's a lot of additional energy for storm systems to tap into.
Quoting 106. Xyrus2000:



Probably one of the few times I'll actually agree with JB. The northern pacific anomaly has persisted for quite some time now and there doesn't appear any sign that it's going away anytime soon. The warm anomalies are quite strong, with 3C+ regions spanning across decent portions of the ocean.

That's a lot of additional energy for storm systems to tap into.
The pattern has not budged much since this past winter.Actually back in Nov last year when CWG put out their forecast one met noted that depending on the PDO things could change,and if it were to warm a little our winter could be interesting.Now as we know it did and many were in surprised.
Quoting 107. georgevandenberghe:



I was thinking the analog year was 1976-77 but if that's so the western ridge/eastern trough pattern better lock in soon as it did that year (late September on.. and on.. and on.. .. to late Feb 77 when it dramatically broke ]

Remember last October wasn't so cool and the pattern didn't really lock in until January.
Quoting 93. washingtonian115:

Since WINTER is right around the corner it its interesting hearing abut the SNOW forecast.Now some people's favorite met (if that's what you like to call him) JB said that he sees another cold and SNOWY winter setting up.If the Pacific waters don't cool down maybe we could have another SNOWY winter in the works.I'm hoping so.I really enjoyed seeing the beautiful SNOW that we had this winter.Most of our SNOW storms were of the light and powdery variety.The valentines day SNOW storm wasn't.It was heavy.



Or lordy... and the tree apocalypse ice storm... phew. But I also enjoyed last Winter :D :D
Quoting 110. Doppler22:


Or lordy... and the tree apocalypse ice storm... phew. But I also enjoyed last Winter :D :D
Thank goodness we didn't have no real ice problems in and around the city.I remember the valentines day storm at first looked like a ice storm in it's developing stages.But in the end it turned out to be our biggest of the season.I got 20" from that storm.
Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Just ugh
Quoting 114. VAbeachhurricanes:



Just ugh
Now all we need is this to be in place for the winter.The southern jet stream has been active already.
Quoting 109. washingtonian115:

The pattern has not budged much since this past winter.Actually back in Nov last year when CWG put out their forecast one met noted that depending on the PDO things could change,and if it were to warm a little our winter could be interesting.Now as we know it did and many were in surprised. Remember last October wasn't so cool and the pattern didn't really lock in until January.




The pattern for the east never locked and last winter was very different from 1976-77 which was continuously cold (and dry with the trough axis too far east for coastals]. 2013-14 was extremely variable with long cold and warm spells, overall colder than normal but it was the variability that was devastating for many plants.

1976-77 was much worse for broadleaf evergreens in the DC area. Bermudagrass which is marginally hardy here and would make beautiful summer lawns if you could trust it to survive EVERY winter, was just about wiped out that winter at the golf course where I worked as a heavy labourer [ ditchdigging.. that sort of thing ] that following summer. They had to get their winter overseeding grass (Manhattan perennial ryegrass which
isn't very "perennial" in a DC summer ]to survive the summer which was tough [ a rather hot summer too!!]


Not sure what it means about actual climate change but I'm starting to see bermudagrass in Athens Ohio dominating my sister in law's farm lawn and infesting the garden (it grows fast!} Athens is a zone colder than here in DC. My father's old agronomy texts said it wasn't hardy north of North Carolina although some
success was attained in Richmond (C 1940)
A GOM Screaming meeemie'



Quoting 116. opal92nwf:


Still in this wonderful weather pattern in S C IL, 88 high, again above forecast by 4, currently 87 w/ 53 dew pt (negative heat index? they're showing 84), first time below 30" in at least a week, 29.96". Winds light from west, have seen SSW to NNW today. Might get some rain Wed night/ Thurs., at least they've left it there for a few days, so looks like might finally get here, won't hurt to get some. Corn is really disappearing fast and saw several get started on their soybeans over the weekend.

Had a wide stripe wooly in the plant last Friday - milder winter right? Matches that 3 month they showed Fri, we were above avg in it.

Congrats to the 'birds, 4th playoff in a row - beat LA!
Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Now I would just like to re-quote this post :).Because someone posted the 2 week long temp maps a week ago that said it would be above average at this time.Looks like that could be thrown out the window.
Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Very nice. Positive PNA western ridge and negative NAO eastern trough with downstream blocking over the Canadian Meritimes. Hope the trend continues into the winter. Nice 537dm cell over the Great Lakes should make for some colder temperatures in the east by day 5.
Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Greetings Keep...If you find time. please extend your thoughts on what you believe this winter may hold for the Eastern third of North America. I am curious what your take on this is.
somebody going to be wrong..NOAA vs Euro..

Quoting 118. Patrap:

A GOM Screaming meeemie'





wouldn't it be cool if something that small became a TC
Quoting opal92nwf:

wouldn't it be cool if something that small became a TC


Marco!

LOL..I posted CPC map two weeks ago with my obsessed self when the GFS was being posted with all that blue and it turned out to be wrong..

I going to bet my 5 dollars that NOAA will be right again..
Quoting 124. ncstorm:

somebody going to be wrong..NOAA vs Euro..




Thats the 8-14 forecast, Euro is day 5...

Temps in the 70s all day with shag carpet skies, bringing moderate rain. 73/79 and 1.14" rain so far. Light NE wind at around 8 mph.
6-10 th
Quoting 128. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats the 8-14 forecast, Euro is day 5...




>0% of Rain today according to The Weather Channel
>Drizzles all afternoon with a sudden rain shower

because screw logic
Quoting 104. GatorWX:



Pretty grainy old pic, but this was my dad's 1930 John Alden yawl. It was always my favorite of the boats he had. The only other true liveaboard he had was a 32 Prairie Cutter. Good, blue water boat, but ugly! We rode out Hurricane Erin on the wooden Alden though. That was an experience! We were in the marina, but nonetheless.... We sailed it out to the Bahamas a few times and once to PR. Only sailboats I've had were a sunfish and a little Cape Dory, which was a nice little learning boat. Those were some fun days. Now I've settled for a cheap kayak. Least I'm still on the water and I can launch it from a dock across the road from my house.


Far out..We had a 1923 Alden Schooner.

well heck..thats even more red..LOL..

I hope NOAA isn't wrong..
Quoting 122. Drakoen:



Very nice. Positive PNA western ridge and negative NAO eastern trough with downstream blocking over the Canadian Meritimes. Hope the trend continues into the winter. Nice 537dm cell over the Great Lakes should make for some colder temperatures in the east by day 5.
Hope the trend continues into the winter .I agree with you there.
gonna be awhile yet before freezing temps settle down across the northern us grt lakes regions here is hr 84 surface temps temps

Here is some periods.

..................................


: P
Quoting 137. Patrap:

Here is some periods.

..................................


: P
only needed one .

must. be. a. slow. day. when. you. looking. out. for. periods.
Quoting 122. Drakoen:



Very nice. Positive PNA western ridge and negative NAO eastern trough with downstream blocking over the Canadian Meritimes. Hope the trend continues into the winter. Nice 537dm cell over the Great Lakes should make for some colder temperatures in the east by day 5.


I don't. West Coast needs some rain!

*edit* Actually, referring to long term. Seems like the pattern though, assuming it stays.
CWG talks about the first hurricane flight 70 years ago today
Link

Quoting 133. hydrus:

Far out..We had a 1923 Alden Schooner.




No way! How ironic!! Beautiful!!!!! Always wished he had got a schooner, but he was sold on the Alden, 42'.
Local news meteorologist said "the beginning of next week could be our first taste of fall."

He's thinking the front is going to clear S.W. Florida and bring in drier and cooler air for the first time this season.
Quoting 133. hydrus:

Far out..We had a 1923 Alden Schooner.




Cutter rig? My dad's was sloop rigged. Also, nice to see the old whisker pole there! Same color scheme too.
Quoting 139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

only needed one .

must. be. a. slow. day. when. you. looking. out. for. periods.

it's that time of the month.
I always feel better when we start a new month.
.
.
It's raining very heavy here...9" per hour for the last 2 minutes.
And, the wind is blowing.....from the west!
Speaking of the warm water in the pacific while it may be a good sign for us snow lovers it's a bad one for the marine life.

"The last time there was a similar warming in these waters was 2005, but what's unusual about this situation is how extensive the warmth has become and how long it's been occurring.
"It's not clear when it's [going to] end either," Weitkamp said.

Link
Quoting 142. GatorWX:



No way! How ironic!! Beautiful!!!!! Always wished he had got a schooner, but he was sold on the Alden, 42'.


Yawl better stop it or you'll get banned schooner or later for being of topic ;)

That's a cool little spin up in our Gulf.
Quoting 126. DonnieBwkGA:



Marco!



Polo
Quoting 148. ChillinInTheKeys:



Yawl better stop it or you'll get banned schooner or later for being of topic ;)

That's a cool little spin up in our Gulf.
Assailed or banned for posting sailboats.?..
Quoting 150. Climate175:

?
Climate I was not talking about you.It's that person from N.C who I was referring to,
Quoting 151. hydrus:

Assailed or banned for posting sailboats.?..


Knot on my watch... The floggings will continue until morale improves!!!

Okay... Back to lurkin'.
Quoting 124. ncstorm:

somebody going to be wrong..NOAA vs Euro..




More like the models and recurving typhoons vs NOAA(with all due respect).
From the Miami NWS Disco...

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
Quoting 148. ChillinInTheKeys:



Yawl better stop it or you'll get banned schooner or later for being of topic ;)

That's a cool little spin up in our Gulf.


Nice play on words! lol



Is anyone else having a problem with WU playing flash ads with audio? They've been playing every five mins or so since I got back onto my computer. As if this site didn't eat up enough physical memory! I usually have to keep task manager open so I can keep shutting down the page and restarting it anyway. On top of that, it's pretty annoying when all of a sudden your computer starts belching out some dumb ad with no other audio source open.
Quoting 151. hydrus:

Assailed or banned for posting sailboats.?..


They are wind powered, which relies, obviously, on meteorological factors.
Quoting 145. CosmicEvents:


it's that time of the month.
I always feel better when we start a new month.
.
.
It's raining very heavy here...9" per hour for the last 2 minutes.
And, the wind is blowing.....from the west!
o know west winds u in a rain cyclone (.)
159. beell
Now or never if this cell NE of Denver is gonna drop a tornado.

Quoting 153. ChillinInTheKeys:



Knot on my watch... The floggings will continue until morale improves!!!

Okay... Back to lurkin'.
Frigate...I will ketch some Z,s in the galley..
Quoting 151. hydrus:

Assailed or banned for posting sailboats.?..


He was being punny }
Quoting 159. beell:

Now or never if this cell NE of Denver is gonna drop a tornado.




Denver, CO (KFTG) - Vertically Integrated Liquid


Quoting 157. GatorWX:



They are wind powered, which relies, obviously, on meteorological factors.
Very true..I saw a storm strip the canvas off an 80 footer once. He was trying to stop masts from crossing with the sailboat in the adjacent slip..It failed miserably, and the smaller 50 footer went down. 80 KT gusts screaming through the rigging of 50 large sailboats make a heck of a sound.
Quoting 164. hydrus:

Very true..I saw a storm strip the canvas off an 80 footer once. He was trying to stop masts from crossing with the sailboat in the adjacent slip..It failed miserably, and the smaller 50 footer went down. 80 KT gusts screaming through the rigging of 50 large sailboats make a heck of a sound.
sound of the banshee
Quoting 165. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sound of the banshee
April of 1981...I probably will never forget it.
Nice fall weather coming up this week!
Quoting 164. hydrus:

Very true..I saw a storm strip the canvas off an 80 footer once. He was trying to stop masts from crossing with the sailboat in the adjacent slip..It failed miserably, and the smaller 50 footer went down. 80 KT gusts screaming through the rigging of 50 large sailboats make a heck of a sound.


Yes it does! We had square masts. They catch a lil more drag! lol I remember about 3 floating finger docks sinking and with the ballast in them, helped bring down a few boats in the marina. There was crazy stuff happening all the time! He had it in Marina Bay over in Ft Lauderdale in the mid-90's. Another time, a ~100' power boat broke free from the end of the T shaped floating docks, that or the docks themselves broke. Anyway, the wind pushed the bow of the boat across the channel and it struck and sunk a brand new 35' Carver at a broker's dock on the other side. Another time, a 45' Bayliner caught fire and burned to the waterline. Literally something out of the ordinary seemed to happen every time I spent time there, which was quite often.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well the SNOW post was a slap in the face to someone who has become more obsessed with it then me :).but anyway so far I've been checking on some winter forecast.Both Pro's and non Pro's.This winter is like a coin flip because it can go both ways.However in my un-professional opinion something is telling me it'll be another cold one and possibly SNOWY one.I wouldn't mind another one like last year.I got 62 or 63 inches.I wrote it down somewhere.Downtown got 32.1 inch because of the heat island.Some places saw 80 inches for this winter.Not bad and waaaaaay above what 011-12 and 012-013 produced in the D.C area.In total I got 7 inches from both winters combined.



Something tells me that the 70s type winters are going to be visiting DC for the next decade or so.
...Significant weather advisory for northeastern inland Broward County...coastal Palm Beach County...Metro Palm Beach County and eastern inland Palm Beach County...

* until 745 PM EDT

* at 645 PM EDT...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a line of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near lion country safari park to 10 miles west of Mission Bay...and moving northeast at 20 mph.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes.

* The storm will affect... West Palm Beach...Boynton Beach...Delray Beach...Wellington... Jupiter...Palm Beach Gardens...Lake Worth...Riviera Beach... Tequesta...Juno Beach...Ocean Ridge...Greenacres...Royal Palm Beach...Palm Springs...North Palm Beach...Lantana...Lake Park... Atlantis...Haverhill and Cloud Lake.
Big blowup of storms heading my way in Deerfield Beach, Fl.

Link

Picked up 1.54" in 13 minutes at its heaviest and I'm at 1.97" now. That brings me to 15.80" for the month of September. Incredible!
Quoting 168. GatorWX:



Yes it does! We had square masts. They catch a lil more drag! lol I remember about 3 floating finger docks sinking and with the ballast in them, helped bring down a few boats in the marina. There was crazy stuff happening all the time! He had it in Marina Bay over in Ft Lauderdale in the mid-90's. Another time, a ~100' power boat broke free from the end of the T shaped floating docks, that or the docks themselves broke. Anyway, the wind pushed the bow of the boat across the channel and it struck and sunk a brand new 35' Carver at a broker's dock on the other side. Another time, a 45' Bayliner caught fire and burned to the waterline. Literally something out of the ordinary seemed to happen every time I spent time there, which was quite often.
I saw many weather related incidents and accidents while living aboard. Some very sad, because many people were killed. Some happened because of bad judgement, carelessness, inexperience, and some were just freak occurrences. I myself caught in quite a few freak storms. We almost met out fate Christmas Day 1985 off the ten thousand Islands. We were blown from the gulf into the Everglades..Coast Guard jet doing passes for 8 hours finally located us. We use to pull into Shark River ( which is in the middle of the glades ) and anchor when it was to rough in the gulf..Mosquitoes covered everything black..Strange noises too...Never found out what they were.
Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:

Picked up 1.54" in 13 minutes at its heaviest and I'm at 1.97" now. That brings me to 15.80" for the month of September. Incredible!


Over 2 inches downtown, maybe more. It happened fast and more to come it looks like.
Quoting 169. QueensWreath:




Something tells me that the 70s type winters are going to be visiting DC for the next decade or so.
If hurricane formation is going way down as some people are suggesting it will, this would be a likely change to expect.
Quoting 174. Naga5000:


Over 2 inches downtown, maybe more. It happened fast and more to come it looks like.


Yep and here it comes probably another half inch with this next area of rain.



Quoting 173. hydrus:

I saw many weather related incidents and accidents while living aboard. Some very sad, because many people were killed. Some happened because of bad judgement, carelessness, inexperience, and some were just freak occurrences. I myself caught in quite a few freak storms. We almost met out fate Christmas Day 1985 off the ten thousand Islands. We were blown from the gulf into the Everglades..Coast Guard jet doing passes for 8 hours finally located us. We use to pull into Shark River ( which is in the middle of the glades ) and anchor when it was to rough in the gulf..Mosquitoes covered everything black..Strange noises too...Never found out what they were.
Ehem...
975 mb hurricane in the Bahamas out in GFA-make-believe-world
Quoting 175. BahaHurican:

If hurricane formation is going way down as some people are suggesting it will, this would be a likely change to expect.
Wont see me complaining.....I have seen enough death and destruction from these monster storms...I been whipped by to many meself.
Quoting 177. Climate175:

Ehem...
You were in New Jersey.
Quoting 178. win1gamegiantsplease:

975 mb hurricane in the Bahamas out in GFA-make-believe-world
Lol..The GFS is at it again.
Good rains here in east Orlando as well. Looks like the rain wants to let up a bit after this next round.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Picked up 1.54" in 13 minutes at its heaviest and I'm at 1.97" now. That brings me to 15.80" for the month of September. Incredible!
Quoting 181. washingtonian115:

Lol..The GFS is at it again.
I would lol too, but it is the Western Caribbean.
Quoting hydrus:
I saw many weather related incidents and accidents while living aboard. Some very sad, because many people were killed. Some happened because of bad judgement, carelessness, inexperience, and some were just freak occurrences. I myself caught in quite a few freak storms. We almost met out fate Christmas Day 1985 off the ten thousand Islands. We were blown from the gulf into the Everglades..Coast Guard jet doing passes for 8 hours finally located us. We use to pull into Shark River ( which is in the middle of the glades ) and anchor when it was to rough in the gulf..Mosquitoes covered everything black..Strange noises too...Never found out what they were.


Were the sounds grunting or screeching in tone?
Quoting 180. hydrus:

You were in New Jersey.
New Jersey lol!
Quoting 178. win1gamegiantsplease:

975 mb hurricane in the Bahamas out in GFA-make-believe-world


show me
Quoting 184. QueensWreath:



Were the sounds grunting or screeching in tone?
Cant describe them..Grunting can come from large fish and gators..The glades are loaded with screeching birds day and night...I was born and raised in South Florida, and still couldnt guess what they were.
5 PM PDT TWO for 90E up to 40%-90%.

Satellite-derived winds and nearby surface observations indicate
that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance could produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Quoting 189. Tropicsweatherpr:

5 PM PDT TWO for 90E up to 40%-90%.

Satellite-derived winds and nearby surface observations indicate
that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is gradually becoming better
defined. Although thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system drifts west-northwestward or
northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance could produce locally heavy rains over portions of
southern Mexico that could cause flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.



TD 8pm tomorrow or midnight october 1st?!
Quoting 178. win1gamegiantsplease:

975 mb hurricane in the Bahamas out in GFA-make-believe-world


??? not on this GFS run
193. SRQfl
Quoting 156. GatorWX:



Nice play on words! lol


Is anyone else having a problem with WU playing flash ads with audio? They've been playing every five mins or so since I got back onto my computer. As if this site didn't eat up enough physical memory! I usually have to keep task manager open so I can keep shutting down the page and restarting it anyway. On top of that, it's pretty annoying when all of a sudden your computer starts belching out some dumb ad with no other audio source open.

Almost enough to quit the blog, or maybe revert back to classic mode. Happened to me yesterday as I was halfway through the comments and this advert blasts my dogs, wife and I out of peacefulness and into a panic. I had the blog open on tablet, NFL Redzone on laptop, and wife watching something on TV. It took a couple mins before I realized it was coming from here, cleverly placed at the top of the page. I hope this isn't a trend... In other events, its getting wet here and the grass grows tall.

Of the 21 GFS ensemble members 17 develop the Western Caribbean storm. In other news and closer to home and in the short range moderate to heavy rains continues to spread across Central FL. where the Flood Watch has extended into tomorrow. Flood Warning still remains for the St. Johns River which is currently at minor flood stage.



Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:

Picked up 1.54" in 13 minutes at its heaviest and I'm at 1.97" now. That brings me to 15.80" for the month of September. Incredible!
Yikes, that's about 75% of what I've had all year- and everything is (was) green here!
Quoting 195. Climate175:

<
by the time its gets here I will already be tried of looking at it
Quoting 174. Naga5000:



Over 2 inches downtown, maybe more. It happened fast and more to come it looks like.


Any flooding? Looks like Orlando metro and just e of Ocala are the bullseyes, last I looked.
Quoting 193. SRQfl:


Almost enough to quit the blog, or maybe revert back to classic mode. Happened to me yesterday as I was halfway through the comments and this advert blasts my dogs, wife and I out of peacefulness and into a panic. I had the blog open on tablet, NFL Redzone on laptop, and wife watching something on TV. It took a couple mins before I realized it was coming from here, cleverly placed at the top of the page. I hope this isn't a trend... In other events, its getting wet here and the grass grows tall.



sar posted this link a while ago to fix that problem...

Link
Quoting 198. GatorWX:



Any flooding? Looks like Orlando metro and just e of Ocala are the bullseyes, last I looked.
wunder if scott has had enough or he what some more
Quoting 197. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

by the time its gets here I will already be tried of looking at it
Not me!
Quoting 198. GatorWX:



Any flooding? Looks like Orlando metro and just e of Ocala are the bullseyes, last I looked.


I'll let you know when I'm out of class and on the way home. There was lots of ponding on the way to UCF, however.
Quoting 173. hydrus:

I saw many weather related incidents and accidents while living aboard. Some very sad, because many people were killed. Some happened because of bad judgement, carelessness, inexperience, and some were just freak occurrences. I myself caught in quite a few freak storms. We almost met out fate Christmas Day 1985 off the ten thousand Islands. We were blown from the gulf into the Everglades..Coast Guard jet doing passes for 8 hours finally located us. We use to pull into Shark River ( which is in the middle of the glades ) and anchor when it was to rough in the gulf..Mosquitoes covered everything black..Strange noises too...Never found out what they were.


I'll tell ya what was much scarier than Hurricane Erin in the marina, a nasty thunderstorm with high winds, blinding rain and extreme lightning in Charlotte Harbor. I'll never forget my dad literally forcing down into the cabin and him connecting jumper cables to the rigging and tossing the opposite ends into the water. That was an intense 30-45 mins! Made the hurricane seem puny. That was the smaller Prairie Cutter, but no slouch of a sailboat by any means. It was built like a 32' battleship. I of course wanted to be in the action. It's funny, when I was a kid, I didn't fear lightning, but now I'm terrified. I never had any close calls, guess I just learned "better safe than sorry".

Finally getting our brief, big rain of the day. Should end up putting us around .25 - .5" for the day. So far, just a trace.
Quoting 198. GatorWX:


Any flooding? Looks like Orlando metro and just e of Ocala are the bullseyes, last I looked.


Flooding is becoming a big deal now along the ST Johns river. After today's rain there is going to be a big rise all along the ST Johns. People in Sanford are really watching this as water levels are close to breaching the sea wall and flooding downtown Sanford just to my east. Worst flooding since 2004 hurricanes.
205. SRQfl
Quoting 199. GeoffreyWPB:



Thank You! +100 karma points for you!

206. SRQfl
Although I do have to admit last winter was a rollecoaster, in December we were saying the winter was over, come Feb we were jamming it good!
Quoting 207. Climate175:

Although I do have to admit last winter was a rollecoaster, in December we were saying the winter was over, come Feb we were jamming it good!


Who was saying winter was over last December?
Quoting 185. Climate175:



Did you expect anything differently this season?
Quoting 209. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Did you expect anything differently this season?
That was for the people who kept shouting Miami Hurricane the whole time.
Quoting 208. VAbeachhurricanes:



Who was saying winter was over last December?
LOL we were jamming!
Womp, waaah'.................

Got my first forecast in for WxChallenge. Anyone else doing it?
screaming jet makes its appearance by the end of the run in the nw

Quoting 204. StormTrackerScott:



Flooding is becoming a big deal now along the ST Johns river. After today's rain there is going to be a big rise all along the ST Johns. People in Sanford are really watching this as water levels are close to breaching the sea wall and flooding downtown Sanford just to my east. Worst flooding since 2004 hurricanes.


You sure? Doppler estimates aren't particularly high. Not doubting you, but I don't see any more than WU's 2-4". I thought somewhat the same thing yesterday when we had widespread 4-6". About every river here, locally, is above flood stage. They actually lowered the crests below what they forecast before the rains began. Well hopefully we dodged a bullet. I think those blow off storms, if ya want to call them that, this morning helped keep temps down some or I'd assume we'd have seen more widespread 4-6" like was forecast yesterday. Even the NWS began to question themselves this morning. We didn't get squat down here, bout a .25". I do see they've lowered my forecast low temps to three frigged nights below 70, with one all the down to 65 now. Brr! Honey, it's time to break out the sleeves! No, but it should dry out and be a noticeable change if it verifies and I believe it will.



Things look to be winding down pretty quick across west and central FL at this point. East coast has a little more oomph still, not that it's truly amounting to much. Idk, there may have been some isolated spots, but mostly, FL fared well with the given forecast, not that it was doom and gloom, lol. I doubt there's much flooding out there.




Totals look like any given day in rainy season, which isn't what generally causes flooding in FL, but I also didn't see too many fast dumpers today. Eastern Marion County, Tampa Bay and Orlando Metro seemed to be the big winners in that respect.
Quoting 210. Climate175:

That was for the people who kept shouting Miami Hurricane the whole time.
That area still needs to be monitored down there until the end of the season.

Did anyone find photographs from Bermuda today? I see no reason this shouldn't have been named a subtropical storm. If only for 12 hours. Now it's not looking as good.
This little cell is giving me more rain than all of today and yesterday combined.
Studies fault warming in much of 2013 wild weather

WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists looking at 16 cases of wild weather around the world last year see the fingerprints of man-made global warming on more than half of them.

Silly me. I thought weather events were not tied to global warming and the climate.
Quoting 217. winter123:

Did anyone find photographs from Bermuda today? I see no reason this shouldn't have been named a subtropical storm. If only for 12 hours. Now it's not looking as good.


Insufficient convective organization. A small, broken ring of shallow convection isn't going to work for classification.
California drought and climate warming: Studies find no clear link

Global warming contributed to extreme heat waves in many parts of the world last year, but cannot be definitively linked to the California drought, according to a report released Monday.

The third annual analysis of extreme weather events underscored the continuing difficulty of teasing out the influence of human-caused climate change on precipitation patterns.

One of three studies examining the California drought in 2013 found that the kind of high-pressure systems that blocked winter storms last year have increased with global warming.

But another study concluded that a long-term rise in sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific did not contribute substantially to the drought. And researchers noted that California precipitation since 1895 has "exhibited no appreciable downward trend."


Why does this settled science seem so unsettled?
Quoting 217. winter123:

Did anyone find photographs from Bermuda today? I see no reason this shouldn't have been named a subtropical storm. If only for 12 hours. Now it's not looking as good.



Maybe post-season. It certainly performed well enough late last night - early this am in Bermuda to be. It's since deteriorated. Not sure, the exact terms it must meet, but it kinda cam and went a bit fast, convection-wise. Bermuda had all the ingredients needed to classify it, but it wasn't even an invest yet and with that, I think it's a lost cause.
back to more normal night time temps soon
mid to high 60s south southeast of front
mid to low 40s nw of the front
right now

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Insufficient convective organization. A small, broken ring of shallow convection isn't going to work for classification.


Well, at least Dolly will go down as our only quick-storm of the season if the trend continues, unlike last year. This hurricane season has had all named storms, save one, develop into hurricanes.
Quoting 221. CycloneOz:

California drought and climate warming: Studies find no clear link

Global warming contributed to extreme heat waves in many parts of the world last year, but cannot be definitively linked to the California drought, according to a report released Monday.

The third annual analysis of extreme weather events underscored the continuing difficulty of teasing out the influence of human-caused climate change on precipitation patterns.

One of three studies examining the California drought in 2013 found that the kind of high-pressure systems that blocked winter storms last year have increased with global warming.

But another study concluded that a long-term rise in sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific did not contribute substantially to the drought. And researchers noted that California precipitation since 1895 has "exhibited no appreciable downward trend."


Why does this settled science seem so unsettled?

The science is one thing.
The marketing of the science....trying to market extreme weather because nobody's gonna' watch a video of the ocean rising.....that's the problem. The marketing folks dropped the extreme weather campaign like a hot potato...as we were 7 years into a time of "more frequent and powerful" extreme weather...yet the extreme weather overall was less frequent and less powerful. As Dr. Rood said..."we can do better".
Quoting 221. CycloneOz:

California drought and climate warming: Studies find no clear link

Global warming contributed to extreme heat waves in many parts of the world last year, but cannot be definitively linked to the California drought, according to a report released Monday.

The third annual analysis of extreme weather events underscored the continuing difficulty of teasing out the influence of human-caused climate change on precipitation patterns.

One of three studies examining the California drought in 2013 found that the kind of high-pressure systems that blocked winter storms last year have increased with global warming.

But another study concluded that a long-term rise in sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific did not contribute substantially to the drought. And researchers noted that California precipitation since 1895 has "exhibited no appreciable downward trend."


Why does this settled science seem so unsettled?


As with pretty much any discipline of science, some things are settled and some things are not. Problems arise when people assume that because some things are not settled, nothing is settled. Humans are a major contributor to the current global warming. That's settled.

Quoting 219. CycloneOz:

Studies fault warming in much of 2013 wild weather

WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists looking at 16 cases of wild weather around the world last year see the fingerprints of man-made global warming on more than half of them.

Silly me. I thought weather events were not tied to global warming and the climate.


What do you mean by "tied to"?
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


As with pretty much any discipline of science, some things are settled and some things are not. Problems arise when people assume that because some things are not settled, nothing is settled. Humans are a major contributor to the current global warming. That's settled.


I agree. Crony scientists and their political benefactors have settled the science. Yuuuup!
Quoting 208. VAbeachhurricanes:



Who was saying winter was over last December?
Yeah I did after 3 failed winters back to back.And some models were showing a warm January which is suppose to be our coldest month.
Womp, wahhhhhh'...

Quoting 228. CycloneOz:



I agree. Crony scientists and their political benefactors have settled the science. Yuuuup!


Would you go so far to say that all climate science has been settled, or just some of it?
Anyone else getting drenched in east central Florida tonight? We have had somewhere close to 3 inches plus so far. I'm in titusville. The retention pond in our park is about 30 yards from my front and my rv sites about 3 feet off the ground which is great cause the new "edge" of the pond is just shy of my deck!
Quoting 224. CybrTeddy:



Well, at least Dolly will go down as our only quick-storm of the season if the trend continues, unlike last year. This hurricane season has had all named storms, save one, develop into hurricanes.

Yeah, it's definitely been a quality of quantity type of season, breaking the norm of the past few years. It's a shame we can't get a high quality, high quantity season anymore though. :)
Quoting 232. tropicalnewbee:

Anyone else getting drenched in east central Florida tonight? We have had somewhere close to 3 inches plus so far. I'm in titusville. The retention pond in our park is about 30 yards from my front and my rv sites about 3 feet off the ground which is great cause the new "edge" of the pond is just shy of my deck!
3 tenths of an inch in the past 6 hrs. at KDAB. At KMLB 2.22" in the past 6 hrs.
Stanford Report, September 30, 2014
Causes of California drought linked to climate change, Stanford scientists say


The extreme atmospheric conditions associated with California's crippling drought are far more likely to occur under today's global warming conditions than in the climate that existed before humans emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases.

BY KER THAN

Video by Kurt Hickman

Associate Professor Noah Diffenbaugh and graduate student Daniel Swain explain the 'ridiculously resilient ridge' and its role in the California drought.
The atmospheric conditions associated with the unprecedented drought currently afflicting California are "very likely" linked to human-caused climate change, Stanford scientists write in a new research paper.

In a new study, a team led by Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh used a novel combination of computer simulations and statistical techniques to show that a persistent region of high atmospheric pressure hovering over the Pacific Ocean that diverted storms away from California was much more likely to form in the presence of modern greenhouse gas concentrations.

The research, published on Sept. 29 as a supplement to this month's issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is one of the most comprehensive studies to investigate the link between climate change and California's ongoing drought.

"Our research finds that extreme atmospheric high pressure in this region – which is strongly linked to unusually low precipitation in California – is much more likely to occur today than prior to the human emission of greenhouse gases that began during the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s," said Diffenbaugh, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford and a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

The exceptional drought currently crippling California is by some metrics the worst in state history. Combined with unusually warm temperatures and stagnant air conditions, the lack of precipitation has triggered a dangerous increase in wildfires and incidents of air pollution across the state. A recent report estimated that the water shortage would result in direct and indirect agricultural losses of at least $2.2 billion and lead to the loss of more than 17,000 seasonal and part-time jobs in 2014 alone. Such impacts prompted California Gov. Jerry Brown to declare a drought emergency and the federal government to designate all 58 California counties as "natural disaster areas."

Scientists agree that the immediate cause of the drought is a particularly stubborn "blocking ridge" over the northeastern Pacific – popularly known as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or "Triple R" – that prevented winter storms from reaching California during the 2013 and 2014 rainy seasons.



Blocking ridges are regions of high atmospheric pressure that disrupt typical wind patterns in the atmosphere. "Winds respond to the spatial distribution of atmospheric pressure," said Daniel Swain, a graduate student in Diffenbaugh's lab and lead author of the study. "We have seen this amazingly persistent region of high pressure over the northeastern Pacific for many months now, which has substantially altered atmospheric flow and kept California largely dry."

Blocking ridges occur periodically at temperate latitudes, but the Triple R was exceptional for both its size and longevity. While it dissipated briefly during the summer months of 2013, it returned even stronger by fall 2013 and persisted through much of the winter, which is normally California's wet season.

"At its peak in January 2014, the Triple R extended from the subtropical Pacific between California and Hawaii to the coast of the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska," said Swain, who coined the term "ridiculously resilient ridge" last fall to highlight the unusually persistent nature of the offshore blocking ridge.

Like a large boulder that has tumbled into a narrow stream, the Triple R diverted the flow of high-speed air currents known as the jet stream far to the north, causing Pacific storms to bypass not only California but also Oregon and Washington. As a result, rain and snow that would normally fall on the West Coast was instead re-routed to Alaska and as far north as the Arctic Circle.

An important question for scientists and decision-makers has been whether human-caused climate change has influenced the conditions responsible for California's drought. Given the important role of the Triple R, Diffenbaugh's team set out to measure the probability of such extreme ridging events.

The team first assessed the rarity of the Triple R in the context of the 20th-century historical record. They found that the combined persistence and intensity of the Triple R in 2013 was unrivaled by any event since 1948, which is when comprehensive information about the circulation of the atmosphere is first available.

To more directly address the question of whether climate change played a role in the probability of the 2013 event, the team collaborated with Bala Rajaratnam, an assistant professor of statistics and of environmental Earth system science and an affiliated faculty member of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. Rajaratnam and his graduate students Michael Tsiang and Matz Haugen applied advanced statistical techniques to a large suite of climate model simulations.

Using the Triple R as a benchmark, the group compared geopotential heights – an atmospheric property related to pressure – between two sets of climate model experiments. One set mirrored the present climate, in which the atmosphere is growing increasingly warm due to human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In the other set of experiments, greenhouse gases were kept at a level similar to those that existed just prior to the Industrial Revolution.

The interdisciplinary research team found that the extreme geopotential heights associated with the Triple R in 2013 were at least three times as likely to occur in the present climate as in the preindustrial climate. They also found that such extreme values are consistently tied to unusually low precipitation in California and the formation of atmospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific.

"We've demonstrated with high statistical confidence that the large-scale atmospheric conditions, similar to those associated with the Triple R, are far more likely to occur now than in the climate before we emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases," Rajaratnam said.

"In using these advanced statistical techniques to combine climate observations with model simulations, we've been able to better understand the ongoing drought in California," Diffenbaugh added. "This isn't a projection of 100 years in the future. This is an event that is more extreme than any in the observed record, and our research suggests that global warming is playing a role right now."

Diffenbaugh's group was supported in part by a National Science Foundation CAREER Award and by a grant from the National Institutes of Health. Rajaratnam's group was supported in part by a National Science Foundation CAREER Award, a DARPA Young Faculty CAREER Award, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the UPS Fund.

Media Contact
Noah Diffenbaugh, School of Earth Sciences: (650) 223-9425, diffenbaugh@stanford.edu

Daniel Swain, School of Earth Sciences: (415) 686-1349, dlswain@stanford.edu

Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


Would you go so far to say that all climate science has been settled, or just some of it?


The science that closes coal-fired power plants in the USA...and other schemes that cost citizens lots of money in taxes and fees has been settled.
Quoting 236. CycloneOz:



The science that closes coal-fired power plants in the USA...and other schemes that cost citizens lots of money in taxes and fees has been settled.


Science doesn't close power plants.
Quoting Patrap:
Diffenbaugh's group was supported in part by a National Science Foundation CAREER Award and by a grant from the National Institutes of Health. Rajaratnam's group was supported in part by a National Science Foundation CAREER Award, a DARPA Young Faculty CAREER Award, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the UPS Fund.


What a coincidence that every single contributor to this man's science has a horse in the global warming race.

Diffenbaugh is likely a crony scientist.
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


Science doesn't close power plants.


Science is supposed to improve our existence. Instead, it is being used to subvert us in many ways.
Quoting 236. CycloneOz:



The science that closes coal-fired power plants in the USA...and other schemes that cost citizens lots of money in taxes and fees has been settled.


Rockefellers to switch investments to 'clean energy'

Heirs to the Rockefeller family, which made its vast fortune from oil, are to sell investments in fossil fuels and reinvest in clean energy, reports say.

Time to move on to a new era. From the stone age to the industrial age to the green age. Or face getting left behind.

The Rockefeller Brothers Fund is joining a coalition of philanthropists pledging to rid themselves of more than $50bn (£31bn) in fossil fuel assets.

The announcement was made on Monday, a day before the UN climate change summit opens on Tuesday.

Some 650 individuals and 180 institutions have joined the coalition.

It is part of a growing global initiative called Global Divest-Invest, which began on university campuses several years ago, the New York Times reports.

Pledges from pension funds, religious groups and big universities have reportedly doubled since the start of 2014.

UN summit
Rockefeller Brothers Fund director Stephen Heintz said the move to divest from fossil fuels would be in line with oil tycoon John D Rockefeller's wishes,

"We are quite convinced that if he were alive today, as an astute businessman looking out to the future, he would be moving out of fossil fuels and investing in clean, renewable energy," Mr Heintz said in a statement.



The philanthropic organisation was founded in 1940 by the sons of John D Rockefeller. As of 31 July 2014, the fund's investment assets were worth $860m.

"There is a moral imperative to preserve a healthy planet," Valerie Rockefeller Wayne, a great-great-granddaughter of Mr Rockefeller and a trustee of the fund, is quoted by the Washington Post as saying.

A climate change summit is due to start on Tuesday at the UN headquarters in New York, with 125 heads of state and government members expected to attend.

It is the first such gathering since the unsuccessful climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009.

line
At the scene: Matt McGrath, Environment Correspondent, BBC News

The event held to launch the Rockefellers' news was more revivalist meeting than press conference. There was whooping, cheering, hollering and stamping of feet.

Archbishop Desmond Tutu appeared by video and told the assembly that the move was "a tipping point of transition to a new energy economy that was just and equitable".

Rockefeller Brothers Fund director Stephen Heintz said dryly that "everyone noted the irony" that a foundation built on oil wealth would now be leading the charge out of fossil fuel.

Actor Mark Ruffalo, who also signed the pledge, told the conference: "These are not silly people, these are people who know how to deal with money."

They recognised that clean energy was "the future", he said - prompting more whooping, cheering and stamping of feet.

line
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon hopes leaders can make progress on a universal climate agreement to be signed by all nations at the end of 2015.

On Sunday, hundreds of thousands of marchers took to the streets in more than 2,000 locations worldwide, demanding urgent action on climate change and calling for curbs on carbon emissions.

Business leaders, environmentalists and celebrities also joined the demonstrations, which were organised by The People's Climate March.

Link
We are talking about something, that affect's the entire Earth. Problems, that transcend Nations.


Quoting 239. CycloneOz:



Science is supposed to improve our existence. Instead, it is being used to subvert us in many ways.


A lot of people are more likely to reject science if they don't agree with some of the decisions that are being made because of it, instead of accepting the science and rejecting only those decisions. There is a correlation between rejection of climate science and having certain political ideologies.
Quoting 236. CycloneOz:



The science that closes coal-fired power plants in the USA...and other schemes that cost citizens lots of money in taxes and fees has been settled.


Edit.
At the end of the day the world is moving on to green energy, whether some of you like it or not.
Who does not want an energy source that is cleaner, efficient, and renewable?

Smart Power In India

img src="">

Around the world, 1.3 billion people %u2014 roughly a quarter of the global population %u2014 lack access to electricity. Of these, 620 million people live in Asia, and 590 million in Africa. This is an especially pressing problem in India alone, where more than 290 million are without even basic lighting, hindering the potential for both human and economic development and reducing quality of life.
The Rockefeller Foundation%u2019s initiative, Smart Power for Environmentally-Sound Economic Development, or SPEED, aims to address the basic needs of poor and vulnerable people who lack access to electricity and spur economic development in rural India. The Foundation and partners do this by identifying innovative opportunities to attract energy service companies (ESCOs) to invest in building decentralized renewable energy power plants in rural areas.
SPEED%u2019s unique approach in doing this is to identify major consumers of electricity that would assure a continuous and stable revenue stream for ESCOs. One such category of consumer is cell phone towers. Currently, there are more than 350,000 cell phone towers across India, which use an estimated 2 billion liters of diesel fuel. This means that in addition to serving as a reliable, long-term customer for an ESCO, these cell phone towers are able to cut their dependence on diesel and instead rely on a renewable energy source. With cell phone towers in place, the ESCOs also generate energy for the surrounding community which fosters the growth of micro-enterprises and local entrepreneurs, in addition to the benefits to the daily lives of citizens in each community.

Link
Quoting 215. GatorWX:


You sure? Doppler estimates aren't particularly high. Not doubting you, but I don't see any more than WU's 2-4". I thought somewhat the same thing yesterday when we had widespread 4-6". About every river here, locally, is above flood stage. They actually lowered the crests below what they forecast before the rains began. Well hopefully we dodged a bullet. I think those blow off storms, if ya want to call them that, this morning helped keep temps down some or I'd assume we'd have seen more widespread 4-6" like was forecast yesterday. Even the NWS began to question themselves this morning. We didn't get squat down here, bout a .25". I do see they've lowered my forecast low temps to three frigged nights below 70, with one all the down to 65 now. Brr! Honey, it's time to break out the sleeves! No, but it should dry out and be a noticeable change if it verifies and I believe it will.



Things look to be winding down pretty quick across west and central FL at this point. East coast has a little more oomph still, not that it's truly amounting to much. Idk, there may have been some isolated spots, but mostly, FL fared well with the given forecast, not that it was doom and gloom, lol. I doubt there's much flooding out there.




Totals look like any given day in rainy season, which isn't what generally causes flooding in FL, but I also didn't see too many fast dumpers today. Eastern Marion County, Tampa Bay and Orlando Metro seemed to be the big winners in that respect.



LOL. Here you go again the total of 4" to 6" from the NWS is for Monday and Tuesday. The Flood Watch was issued because the ground is saturated from 5" to 15" of rain over the past week across C FL.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...



INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...ORLANDO...
SANFORD...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...
VERO BEACH...OKEECHOBEE...FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND...
DAYTONA BEACH...CLERMONT...TITUSVILLE

430 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...COASTAL VOLUSIA...INDIAN RIVER...INLAND VOLUSIA...
MARTIN...NORTHERN BREVARD...NORTHERN LAKE...OKEECHOBEE...
ORANGE...OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE...SOUTHERN BREVARD...SOUTHERN LAKE
AND ST. LUCIE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING

* DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING TODAY. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND FOCUSES ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. TWO DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY
REACH FOUR TO SIX INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS
.

* ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FLOODING TO
ROADWAYS...AND LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP IN
YOUR AREA. SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS ALREADY AT ELEVATED
LEVELS MAY SEE RAPID RISES OF WATER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
Quoting 220. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Insufficient convective organization. A small, broken ring of shallow convection isn't going to work for classification.
Well..... Bertha upgrade with just a little piece of convection.
Quoting 233. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, it's definitely been a quality of quantity type of season, breaking the norm of the past few years. It's a shame we can't get a high quality, high quantity season anymore though. :)
Not that high of a quality either. There were no cat 4 or 5 this year. I hope 2015 is more interesting.
Quoting 239. CycloneOz:



Science is supposed to improve our existence. Instead, it is being used to subvert us in many ways.
I guess you'd be more comfortable breathing the output of the coal-fired generating plants of the 1950s or so, before science developed stack scrubbers and other technology that, yes, cost the electric companies to install, but have made a difference in our air quality. Frankly, I prefer to breathe clean air.
Quoting 229. washingtonian115:

Yeah I did after 3 failed winters back to back.And some models were showing a warm January which is suppose to be our coldest month.

Quoting 169. QueensWreath:




Something tells me that the 70s type winters are going to be visiting DC for the next decade or so.


Winters 72-73 73-74 and 74-75 were disappointingly warm. Winter 75-76 was cold in January but mild in December and February had the most extreme February warm spell of the 20'th century.. like March 2012 but a month earlier and about ten degrees colder therefore.. like mid April in February rather than May in March but still utterly amazing warmth. Winters 76-77 77-78 and 78-79 were each cold and bitter in their own way, first one for cold, second for snow and late cold and third for variability, late cold and an extreme snow dump on Presidents day. 79-80 was mild.
CLIMATE CHANGE: Mangroves Could Be Savior of Guyana's Shrinking Coastline

img src="">
I'm more likely to change my political choices based on science than to change my science views based on politics.
Quoting 187. pablosyn:



show me
Quoting 191. nwobilderburg:



??? not on this GFS run


This is what I saw, maybe a new run changed it
Quoting 254. yoboi:




I never knew 10% was considered "major"................


I wasn't thinking "10%".
Quoting 187. pablosyn:



show me
Quoting 191. nwobilderburg:



??? not on this GFS run


This is what I saw, maybe a new run changed it
Haven't seen the 12z that was 0z
Quoting 254. yoboi:




I never knew 10% was considered "major"................




It is settled.
Only the ideologically committed are in denial.
I found this great video yesterday afternoon. I didn't post it because nobody was on the subject, but since that can has been opened this evening...

Quoting 258. cytochromeC:





It is settled.
Only the ideologically committed are in denial.


[citation needed]
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Insufficient convective organization. A small, broken ring of shallow convection isn't going to work for classification.


But you can't spell invest without "eye" ;)
I disagree.
This is really sad, and I think speaks volumes about the state of our world:

"The state of the world’s biodiversity appears worse than ever. Population sizes of vertebrate species measured by the LPI have halved over the last 40 years.

The Living Planet Index (LPI), which measures trends in thousands of vertebrate species populations, shows a decline of 52 per cent between 1970 and 2010. In other words, the number of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish across the globe is, on average, about half the size it was 40 years ago. This is a much bigger decrease than has been reported previously, as a result of a new methodology which aims to be more representative of global biodiversity." -WWF

Link

I think its interesting how people get so offended about societal change due to climate change reform, claiming its about government control. However, there isn't an ounce of evidence for this. In fact, not only is there not physical evidence, but intuitive reasoning and circumstantial evidence also is against that.

I think the fact that not only is CO2 pollution increasing, but globally toxic waste dumping and human destruction of habitat is also continuing to increase. As we can see above, animal populations are decreasing significantly as well.

Is it really about government control, an assertion based on no foundation of evidence, but merely conspiracies and assumptions? Or are we just selfish?

Facts speak louder than jibber jabber.
Quoting 262. Grothar:

I disagree.


I've never seen you be disagreeable before Grothar ;)
Give you guys a head's up of what we should be worried about that can destroy the world.Put your heads together and see what you come up with.Has nothing to do with climate but it is all coming too a head.I pray that the rest of the world will wake up before it is too late.
Don't know if this was posted, but a well liked met was lost today.

Walter Cronise died at 90.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/obituaries/ article2307665.html

Quoting 265. help4u:

Give you guys a head's up of what we should be worried about that can destroy the world.Put your heads together and see what you come up with.Has nothing to do with climate but it is all coming too a head.I pray that the rest of the world will wake up before it is too late.


Rick Scott will be re-elected Governor of Florida again?
Quoting help4u:
Give you guys a head's up of what we should be worried about that can destroy the world.Put your heads together and see what you come up with.Has nothing to do with climate but it is all coming too a head.I pray that the rest of the world will wake up before it is too late.


Quoting 267. GeoffreyWPB:



Rick Scott will be re-elected Governor of Florida again?


I hope not...
Quoting 267. GeoffreyWPB:



Rick Scott will be re-elected Governor of Florida again?


No, that Rick Scott will serve half a term before beginning a new one....in Washington DC. In the Oval Office.
Quoting 258. cytochromeC:





It is settled.
Only the ideologically committed are in denial.


Ignorance is bliss, dude.
Quoting 263. Jedkins01:

This is really sad, and I think speaks volumes about the state of our world:

"The state of the world’s biodiversity appears worse than ever. Population sizes of vertebrate species measured by the LPI have halved over the last 40 years.

The Living Planet Index (LPI), which measures trends in thousands of vertebrate species populations, shows a decline of 52 per cent between 1970 and 2010. In other words, the number of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish across the globe is, on average, about half the size it was 40 years ago. This is a much bigger decrease than has been reported previously, as a result of a new methodology which aims to be more representative of global biodiversity." -WWF

Link

I think its interesting how people get so offended about societal change due to climate change reform, claiming its about government control. However, there isn't an ounce of evidence for this. In fact, not only is there not physical evidence, but intuitive reasoning and circumstantial evidence also is against that.

I think the fact that not only is CO2 pollution increasing, but globally toxic waste dumping and human destruction of habitat is also continuing to increase. As we can see above, animal populations are decreasing significantly as well.

Is it really about government control, an assertion based on no foundation of evidence, but merely conspiracies and assumptions? Or are we just selfish?

Facts speak louder than jibber jabber.
Our actions will speak louder than words in what we decide to do all is not lost we can turn it around, but everyone needs to do their part. When I see trash laying on the ground in a parking lot, I pick it up and put it in a garbage can. How hard is it to walk 2-3 feet away and put something in the trash? When I see trash floating up in the water I shake my head and how people toss shit out of the window or throw things in the parking lot shows they don't care about their environment and that makes me sick, how can you live in such mess? Then you have those coming here spouting their conspiracy theories and how Global Warming is a hoax. Seriously, I think people like that should be banned from coming here by the mods.
How is your vacation Gro?
Quoting 270. DonnieBwkGA:



No, that Rick Scott will serve half a term before beginning a new one....in Washington DC. In the Oval Office.


If that happens...

Hey OZ - Where are you again? Need company?

Now if Jeb Bush runs... that is a different story.
Quoting 265. help4u:

Give you guys a head's up of what we should be worried about that can destroy the world.Put your heads together and see what you come up with.Has nothing to do with climate but it is all coming too a head.I pray that the rest of the world will wake up before it is too late.
It is never too late for anything unless you allow yourself to think like that. I'll still pray that one day you will wake up to reality. If God is our savior it won't be for a million years or so, we need to concern ourselves with what is happening currently. Climate Change is an issue just like terrorism, famine, poverty, state of the economy, immigration. All these issues are problems we must come together and fight and I know we will because I have confidence in the human race and we will survive.
Quoting 215. GatorWX:



You sure? Doppler estimates aren't particularly high. Not doubting you, but I don't see any more than WU's 2-4". I thought somewhat the same thing yesterday when we had widespread 4-6". About every river here, locally, is above flood stage. They actually lowered the crests below what they forecast before the rains began. Well hopefully we dodged a bullet. I think those blow off storms, if ya want to call them that, this morning helped keep temps down some or I'd assume we'd have seen more widespread 4-6" like was forecast yesterday. Even the NWS began to question themselves this morning. We didn't get squat down here, bout a .25". I do see they've lowered my forecast low temps to three frigged nights below 70, with one all the down to 65 now. Brr! Honey, it's time to break out the sleeves! No, but it should dry out and be a noticeable change if it verifies and I believe it will.



Things look to be winding down pretty quick across west and central FL at this point. East coast has a little more oomph still, not that it's truly amounting to much. Idk, there may have been some isolated spots, but mostly, FL fared well with the given forecast, not that it was doom and gloom, lol. I doubt there's much flooding out there.




Totals look like any given day in rainy season, which isn't what generally causes flooding in FL, but I also didn't see too many fast dumpers today. Eastern Marion County, Tampa Bay and Orlando Metro seemed to be the big winners in that respect.


Well, you're right, this wasn't an unusual event at all. In fact really, the heavy rain that have caused the flooding is pretty typical during the rainy season, its just that it was relatively drier most of the rainy season than usual, especially for August, so it feels unusually rainy, because it is a lot rainier than earlier in the rainy season this year.

I would consider an an unusually heavy rain event to be where virtually all locations see 4-8 inches of rain or more. Its normal during the rainy season when airmasses get saturated to see pockets that get pounded with torrential rains. There is a reason why there is so much fresh water in Florida because flooding and lots of water logged ground is common in the rainy season during at least some point. While some areas have seen 4-8 inches with isolated areas even up 12, there are are others areas that missed it. With that said it doesn't constitute to me an unusual event.

Tropical Storm Debby was a good a example of an unusually heavy event that causes widespread flooding, more than unusual.
But what we are seeing lately shouldn't be treated as anything odd. Its normal for rivers to go above flood stage and to see huge rain totals in some areas and flooded lawns. Its part of living in Florida, we get 50-60 inches of rain a year, and most of it falls in a 3-4 month period. That will lead to sometimes flooding.

If people don't like it, move to LA ;)

BTW, I would be careful not to rely on rainfall estimates without checking results, especially with tropical airmasses like this. Rainfall reports have been 50 to at times 100% higher than the estimates at corresponding rain gauge sites. Its always good to find out where rain gauges are located on the storm total map and compare them to actual rain totals at those locations.

The NWS has other method os getting more accurate rainfall such as unbiased dual pole products, but standard radar estimates are quite low with such recent situations.

For example, in the Tampa Bay area yesterday, Tampa had 1.44, but the radar estimate surrounding Tampa International was 0.50-0.75. Macdill Airforce Base had 3.63 yesterday, and the radar estimate was only 1 inch around that site.
My parents had 2.03 in the gauge there yesterday, and the estimate there was only 0.75-1.00 inch over where they live on the map.

So radar estimates definitely needed to be checked. They've been deceivingly low with the recent tropical, efficient rain makers in Central FL lately.
Quoting 263. Jedkins01:

This is really sad, and I think speaks volumes about the state of our world:

"The state of the world%u2019s biodiversity appears worse than ever. Population sizes of vertebrate species measured by the LPI have halved over the last 40 years.

The Living Planet Index (LPI), which measures trends in thousands of vertebrate species populations, shows a decline of 52 per cent between 1970 and 2010. In other words, the number of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish across the globe is, on average, about half the size it was 40 years ago. This is a much bigger decrease than has been reported previously, as a result of a new methodology which aims to be more representative of global biodiversity." -WWF

Link

I think its interesting how people get so offended about societal change due to climate change reform, claiming its about government control. However, there isn't an ounce of evidence for this. In fact, not only is there not physical evidence, but intuitive reasoning and circumstantial evidence also is against that.

I think the fact that not only is CO2 pollution increasing, but globally toxic waste dumping and human destruction of habitat is also continuing to increase. As we can see above, animal populations are decreasing significantly as well.

Is it really about government control, an assertion based on no foundation of evidence, but merely conspiracies and assumptions? Or are we just selfish?

Facts speak louder than jibber jabber.


But will dead wildlife have the last laugh?



Quoting 274. Dakster:



If that happens...

Hey OZ - Where are you again? Need company?

Now if Jeb Bush runs... that is a different story.
Can he run again? I heard he might run for president.
don't know if this was posted before ...

Mount Ontake eruption video

Link
Went through that storm today..left Orlando with it, got in front of it, then it caught me again.



Quoting 278. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Can he run again? I heard he might run for president.


Yes he can run for governor again, but I was thinking more for president.
Quoting 276. Jedkins01:


Well, you're right, this wasn't an unusual event at all. In fact really, the heavy rain that have caused the flooding is pretty typical during the rainy season, its just that it was relatively drier most of the rainy season than usual, especially for August, so it feels unusually rainy, because it is a lot rainier than earlier in the rainy season this year.

I would consider an an unusually heavy rain event to be where virtually all locations see 4-8 inches of rain or more. Its normal during the rainy season when airmasses get saturated to see pockets that get pounded with torrential rains. There is a reason why there is so much fresh water in Florida because flooding and lots of water logged ground is common in the rainy season during at least some point. While some areas have seen 4-8 inches with isolated areas even up 12, there are are others areas that missed it. With that said it doesn't constitute to me an unusual event.

Tropical Storm Debby was a good a example of an unusually heavy event that causes widespread flooding, more than unusual.
But what we are seeing lately shouldn't be treated as anything odd. Its normal for rivers to go above flood stage and to see huge rain totals in some areas and flooded lawns. Its part of living in Florida, we get 50-60 inches of rain a year, and most of it falls in a 3-4 month period. That will lead to sometimes flooding.

If people don't like it, move to LA ;)

BTW, I would be careful not to rely on rainfall estimates without checking results, especially with tropical airmasses like this. Rainfall reports have been 50 to at times 100% higher than the estimates at corresponding rain gauge sites. Its always good to find out where rain gauges are located on the storm total map and compare them to actual rain totals at those locations.

The NWS has other method os getting more accurate rainfall such as unbiased dual pole products, but standard radar estimates are quite low with such recent situations.

For example, in the Tampa Bay area yesterday, Tampa had 1.44, but the radar estimate surrounding Tampa International was 0.50-0.75. Macdill Airforce Base had 3.63 yesterday, and the radar estimate was only 1 inch around that site.
My parents had 2.03 in the gauge there yesterday, and the estimate there was only 0.75-1.00 inch over where they live on the map.

So radar estimates definitely needed to be checked. They've been deceivingly low with the recent tropical, efficient rain makers in Central FL lately.


When you get 2" to 4" daily on ground that looks like this then its a problem. That is what I am saying just ask the people in Sanford right now as the ST Johns is rising and will continue to do so after another widespread duluge. 11" of rain here in Longwood since last Monday is not normal dispite what some seem to think on here as they sit high and dry with very little rain like Tallahassee & SW FL.

Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:

Picked up 1.54" in 13 minutes at its heaviest and I'm at 1.97" now. That brings me to 15.80" for the month of September. Incredible!


Yeah the same story over in the Tampa Bay area, my parents ended up getting 2.03 yesterday, 0.71 today, 3.67 on Saturday, and 0.89 on Friday, that's a whopping 7.3 for the weekend plus today for them. They've now had 14.47 for the month.

The funny thing is, they came in well below normal for Jun, July and August which collectively only added up to 12.3 there. Sadly that's during when I lived there over the summer, all the fun stuff came after I left for school. Basically they've had more rain in September than the rest of the rain season. They only had 5.4 in August, so they had more rain this weekend than they had in August. Its pretty funny how weather is sometimes, I'm just glad to see it happen as it was too dry prior to all this, much needed rain for sure.

That second picture I posted may have been the seed/core of this possible invest/low..

Quoting 283. Jedkins01:


Yeah the same story over in the Tampa Bay area, my parents ended up getting 2.03 yesterday, 0.71 today, 3.67 on Saturday, and 0.89 on Friday, that's a whopping 7.3 for the weekend plus today for them. They've now had 14.47 for the month.

The funny thing is, they came in well below normal for Jun, July and August which collectively only added up to 12.3 there. Basically they've had more rain in September than the rest of the rain season. They only had 5.4 in August, so they had more rain this weekend than they had in August. Its pretty funny how weather is sometimes, I'm just glad to see it happen as it was too dry prior to all this, much needed rain for sure.



I get it jed but we have been wet all summer or should I say all year not just September.
Quoting 279. docrod:

don't know if this was posted before ...

Mount Ontake eruption video

Link
Yes, it was posted already, but thanks for posting it again. Amazing, those people made it out alive. Unfortunately, search and rescue uncovered 5 more bodies today bringing the total up to 36 fatalities. Link

Speaking of search and rescue where has sar been?
Quoting 282. StormTrackerScott:



When you get 2" to 4" daily on ground that looks like this then its a problem. That is what I am saying just ask the people in Sanford right now as the ST Johns is rising and will continue to do so after another widespread duluge. 11" of rain here in Longwood since last Monday t ormal dispite what some seem to think on here as they sit high and dry with very little rain like Tallahassee & SW FL.




Well yes you're right, that is a problem, I'm just saying that its not unusual to get pockets of really heavy totals this time of year on that magnitude at all. Flooding in pockets like that does happen most summers, it just doesn't always happen in the same places, so it won't happen in any one given area every year. But every year, there are areas during a normal rainy season that get flooding.

Its when the entire area gets a 6-12 inch event with moist soil is what I would consider to be a serious, uncommon event.
Better than QuikSCAT:
www.spacedaily.com/reports/SSTL_demonstrates_inno vative_method_for_measuring_ocean_winds_and_waves_ from_space_999.html
www.sstl.co.uk/Blog/September-2014/Using-SatNav-s ignals-to-measure-winds-and-waves

Melbourne radar precipitation amounts are crazy.. They've let it go since this last trough has been with us, since Sept 22nd. Max rainfall amount is 22.5inches..

Quoting 286. Skyepony:


I love this map, you can see the population density based on light pollution. The Tampa Bay area is one of the densest population areas in the Southeast and population continues to rise each year. You can even make out the I-4 corridor on this map.
Quoting 288. Jedkins01:


Well yes you're right, that is a problem, I'm just saying that its not unusual to get pockets of really heavy totals this time of year on that magnitude at all. Flooding in pockets like that does happen most summers, it just doesn't always happen in the same places, so it won't happen in any one given area every year. But every year, there are areas during a normal rainy season that get flooding.

Its when the entire area gets a 6-12 inch event with moist soil is what I would consider to be a serious, uncommon event.


It has been the whole area.
Quoting 291. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I love this map, you can see the population density based on light pollution. The Tampa Bay area is one of the densest population areas in the Southeast and population continues to rise each year. You can even make out the I-4 corridor on this map.


And I am in a dark zone. Can see 5th magnitude stars easily on a clear night. Saw my Venus shadow earlier this year too.
Fresh ASCAT of that stepping off into the Atlantic.

Quoting 294. Skyepony:

Fresh ASCAT



Whens the new scat gonna be up and running? Can't wait to see how the new one works.
BWA HA HA HA HA.......Foooooled you didn't I?...

(Bermuda NEXRAD)
96L has excellent structure, needs convection.

ASCAT
Quoting 260. VAbeachhurricanes:



[citation needed]
Link

Only one scientific paper out of 2,258 published in 2013 contested man’s contribution to climate change, according to new research by a US academic.
Dr James Powell analysed articles from between November 2012 and December 2013. He found that just 0.04% of papers disagreed with the scientific consensus that says manmade greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to the increase in global average temperatures.
Powell did the same research for 2012, analysing 13,950 articles published between 1991 and 2012. He found out that only 24 rejected the idea that human activity played a key role in global warming. He said this proved that the idea that there was no consensus on the issue among climate scientists was incorrect.
Powell, who is a retired geology professor, a former college and museum president and member of the National Science Board for 12 years, decided to update his results after reviewing papers published in 2013.
He analysed 2,258 peer-reviewed articles, written by 9,136 authors, of which only one in the Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences rejected manmade global warming.
The denying article is called The Role of Solar Activity in Global Warming, by SV Avakyan, a Russian author who argued that solar geomagnetic activity on clouds was the main responsible for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increase.
Powell noted that Avakyan wrote in the paper, “The switch of world powers first to decreasing the use of fossil fuel and then to carbon-free energy within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol may lead to economic collapse for Russia as a consequence of the reduction and, probably, even loss of the possibility to sell oil and natural gas on the world market.”
In May last year, Skeptical Science surveyed thousands of scientific papers and found that almost all of them – 97% – agreed that global warming was primarily manmade.

Quoting 254. yoboi:




I never knew 10% was considered "major"................


Sometimes it's hard to deal with reality, but I wish you luck in whatever endeavor you wish to accomplish. I feel great tonight. You need not respond to me as this is all I have for you. I just always see you chime in and figured I'd afford you my three cents. Have a pleasant evening yo! Never be afraid and question everything. It'll always benefit you.
Quoting 290. Skyepony:

Melbourne radar precipitation amounts are crazy.. They've let it go since this last trough has been with us, since Sept 22nd. Max rainfall amount is 22.5inches..




The funny thing is, totals there are lower than rain gauge totals too, Melbourne has had quite a bit more rain than that over the past week. As I was saying earlier, estimates at rain gauges sites have been quite a bit lower than reported totals in most places.

For example, based on radar, Melbourne has had 2.5-3.0 inches, but they've actual had 7.53 during the past 7 days of that storm total period.

Quoting 291. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I love this map, you can see the population density based on light pollution. The Tampa Bay area is one of the densest population areas in the Southeast and population continues to rise each year. You can even make out the I-4 corridor on this map.


You can see that FL outside of the of the I/4 corridor and the coastlines is even more rural in the interior than the rest of the deep south, especially interior South FL, almost no activity.
Quoting Kowaliga:
BWA HA HA HA HA.......Foooooled you didn't I?...
The story of the season lots of swirls ,but victims of the desert that the Atlantic has become...
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


No, that Rick Scott will serve half a term before beginning a new one....in Washington DC. In the Oval Office.
Ugggg, thanks goodness if not of my business.....
Quoting 295. Dakster:



Whens the new scat gonna be up and running? Can't wait to see how the new one works.

I don't know. Sometime before ASCAT fails. Which is coming. I can't wait to see it either. Rapidscat was time & money constrained, great use of existing hardware. The hardware wasn't originally made for space. They threw something together to breach the gap..& then to put it on the ISS which takes a different route than all the scattermeters have. At the end of the first year we should have a new understanding of diurnal winds over the oceans because of that.
Quoting 268. DonnieBwkGA:






I wanted to say something funny, a pun, but it'll just encourage em so I've refrained. That's funny though.
Quoting 302. Jedkins01:



You can see that FL outside of the of the I/4 corridor and the coastlines is even more rural in the interior than the rest of the deep south, especially interior South FL, almost no activity.


Least we don't have that expensive bullet train that would've cost us billions and with the loss of countless high paying jobs.
Quoting 305. Skyepony:


I don't know. Sometime before ASCAT fails. Which is coming. I can't wait to see it either. Rapidscat was time & money constrained, great use of existing hardware. The hardware wasn't originally made for space. They threw something together to breach the gap..& then to put it on the ISS which takes a different route than all the scattermeters have. At the end of the first year we should have a new understanding of diurnal winds over the oceans because of that.


Thanks.
Quoting 282. StormTrackerScott:



When you get 2" to 4" daily on ground that looks like this then its a problem. That is what I am saying just ask the people in Sanford right now as the ST Johns is rising and will continue to do so after another widespread duluge. 11" of rain here in Longwood since last Monday is not normal dispite what some seem to think on here as they sit high and dry with very little rain like Tallahassee & SW FL.




Love ya Scott, from all of us in sw FL. Fortunately, most of us here don't live in a natural flood plain. As Jedkins stated, Debbie was a big dumper. Fay was a big dumper. This was marginal. There may be some flooding, but now it's going to dry out and in the end, not that big of deal.



It doesn't rain here. :p

Fay dumped 30" in Melbourne and Debbie, 27"+ on the Wakulla. Both, in a matter of a day or two. That's precedent, more so.
It hasn't been a Fay but it's the highest I've seen the standing water since Fay...for much of ECFL.
Quoting 310. Skyepony:

It hasn't been a Fay but it's the highest I've seen the standing water since Fay...for much of ECFL.


I hear you guys. I don't mean to completely diminish the fact it's happened, but I don't think this has anywhere near the impact Fay did economically, which was due to excessive flooding. I know some areas are flooded. This summer has been nothing like last though for much of the state, in terms of rainfall and areas that are flooded, I assume, presently, are fairly isolated. I'm usually not a pessimist in this regard.

Prove me wrong. I'll be happy to know the actual impact, regardless.
Quoting 309. GatorWX:



Love ya Scott, from all of us in sw FL. Fortunately, most of us here don't live in a natural flood plain. As Jedkins stated, Debbie was a big dumper. Fay was a big dumper. This was marginal. There may be some flooding, but now it's going to dry out and in the end, not that big of deal.



It doesn't rain here. :p

Fay dumped 30" in Melbourne and Debbie, 27"+ on the Wakulla. Both, in a matter of a day or two. That's precedent, more so.


While it may cause some problems, its good for the ecosystem, if these events didn't happen, it would be below normal all the time, too dry. All this rain is overall more beneficial than harmful. Nature sometimes ruin's man's parade in the process of doing good for the land. Hurricanes may seem unnecessary and unnatural at times, but they too are part of the climate.

Its interesting that the areas over the past week that have had the most rain, including the Tampa Bay area, needed it the most. These same areas have had a lot of rain throughout September but had much less than areas further east earlier in the rain season.
Quoting 219. CycloneOz:

Studies fault warming in much of 2013 wild weather

WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists looking at 16 cases of wild weather around the world last year see the fingerprints of man-made global warming on more than half of them.

Silly me. I thought weather events were not tied to global warming and the climate.


Weather is INFLUENCED by climate, not dictated by it. It "loads-the dice" so that outlier events happen more frequently and/or with increased intensity.

Determining if any particular weather event can be directly attributed to climate destabilization is a difficult task to undertake, but it basically boils down to outlier analysis. If you're seeing 1% events happening 100% of the time or 100% events happening only 1% of the time, that's an indication that something has changed. It does NOT mean that every event can be attributed to that change, but it is likely that at least some of those events were affected by the change.

This is basic statistics. It doesn't matter if you're talking about weather events or cops-getting-donuts events.
Quoting 293. DonnieBwkGA:



And I am in a dark zone. Can see 5th magnitude stars easily on a clear night. Saw my Venus shadow earlier this year too.


This is one of the reasons I miss New England. I currently live in the Sodium-Vapor-Lamp corridor between Baltimore and DC. The pollution, contrails, and the billion lights of orange death pretty much ensure that my celestial gazing is limited to the moon. My nearest dark sky site is a couple hours away. :P
Gator~ It's swampy & the toilets are slow but it's been no Fay. Fay was epic, even to people that lived a whole lifetime here.. Hope Fay isn't the new standard for FL to say it's flooding.

Even an invest in 1999 was much worse, atleast in Melbourne.

Volusia got hit hard with this..

Volusia County Property Appraiser's officials say heavy rains that dumped as much as 18 inches of water in certain areas, have caused millions of dollars in flood damage. ..as of Monday.
Quoting 310. Skyepony:

It hasn't been a Fay but it's the highest I've seen the standing water since Fay...for much of ECFL.
Fay was.... special. Closest I've seen [in another area] was Debby.
I'm always amazed at how much rain a moderate TS can dump in 24 - 36 hours....
Good morning hello everybody with a little update on the flooding (see post #22 and #55) in southern France:



South of France hit by devastating floods
The Local (France), Published: 30 Sep 2014 08:59 GMT 02:00

According to a map from wetteronline.de up to 300mm (11,8 inches) of rain fell at one place during 24h:



From today's discussion of Estofex:

West Mediterranean
On Tuesday, convective activity with the potential of excessive rain will go on along the eastern portions of Spain, the southern portions of France, and the west Mediterranean Sea. Upslope flow and frontogenetical forcing are still present. During the second half of the day, weaker QG forcing in the wake of the eastward moving short-wave trough can limit the potential of excessive rain. Given weak vertical wind shear, chance of hail and tornadoes is expected to be rather low.




No flooding problems in the UK for the foreseeable future, September has been an absurdly dry month everywhere. A pattern change towards the real autumn of wind and rain begins on Friday.

Link

30 September 2014 - Early Met Office figures show this is set to be the driest September across the UK since records began in 1910, with exceptionally low rainfall for many parts of the country.

It is also likely to finish in the top five warmest, with UK mean temperatures significantly above the monthly average.

Using figures from 1-28 September, the UK as a whole has received 19.4 mm of rain, which is just 20 % of the normal amount of rainfall we'd expect for the month. Prior to this, the driest September on record was 1959 with 23.8 mm.

Looking at individual countries, Northern Ireland should break the record for September dryness with only 6.5 mm of rain, just 7 % of the average. The previous record was set in 1986, with 9.7 mm. However, England, Wales and Scotland are likely to have their second driest September on record, with earlier records being set in 1959 (7.9 mm), 1959 (11.7 mm) and 1972 (31.7 mm) respectively.

Dry month in a wet year

This September follows on from the 8th wettest August on record and comes in a generally very wet year - this January to August is the wettest such period in the records, mainly as a result of the very wet start to the year and the wettest winter on record.

A top ten month for temperatures

The mean temperature for the UK so far has been 13.9 °C, which is 1.2 °C above the long-term average. This means it has been the joint 4th warmest September in the records back to 1910, but is well below the record of 15.2 °C set in 2006.

Sunshine amounts have been closer to average, with 94 % of what we would normally expect across the UK.

The dry and warm conditions this month have been caused by high pressure dominating our weather for much of the month.

This tends to block more unsettled weather heading in off the Atlantic, leaving the UK with fine, dry and fairly sunny weather at this time of the year.
there is very deep.convection just north of the greater antillias. locally here in this small part of the world e cen florida the rainfall has been no big deal. far from the effects that tropical storm fay. just worrried about the mosquitos this upcoming fall.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I love this map, you can see the population density based on light pollution. The Tampa Bay area is one of the densest population areas in the Southeast and population continues to rise each year. You can even make out the I-4 corridor on this map.


Much to my distress as an astronomer.
321. MahFL
Quoting 319. islander101010:

just worrried about the mosquitos this upcoming fall.


It's already Fall, do keep up !
322. MahFL
I got 11 inches of rain from Fay in Orange Park, it rained and rained and rained....
323. MahFL
Quoting 229. washingtonian115:

... showing a warm January which is suppose to be our coldest month.


I always thought February was the coldest month ?
Cranes Roost Park here in Altamonte Springs is flooded for the first time since Fay in 2008. Water is over the board walk. Also businesses on the other side of I-4 near Cracker Barrel are flooding as well as draining from I-4 is causing problems for those people as well. The Park Ranger here at Cranes Roost is reporting 20.5" of rain for September.
Quoting 322. MahFL:

I got 11 inches of rain from Fay in Orange Park, it rained and rained and rained....


We here in Longwood have eclipsed the totals from Fay of over 10". Infact many people that are getting flooded are saying this is worse than what we had during the hurricanes.
326. MahFL
Quoting 263. Jedkins01:

This is really sad, and I think speaks volumes about the state of our world:

"The state of the world%u2019s biodiversity appears worse than ever.


Unless the human population declines, which is unlikely, then biodiversity will always change. It's survival of the fittest for the state of the planet. The planet is not going to be the same forever and was not like it is now in the past. Change will always likely occur.

Was it sad when the Dinosaurs were wiped out ? If they had not been, we Humans would not be here.
More heavy rain is coming today. Looks like the Rain Forest out here.

Quoting 282. StormTrackerScott:



When you get 2" to 4" daily on ground that looks like this then its a problem. That is what I am saying just ask the people in Sanford right now as the ST Johns is rising and will continue to do so after another widespread duluge. 11" of rain here in Longwood since last Monday is not normal dispite what some seem to think on here as they sit high and dry with very little rain like Tallahassee & SW FL.




I have lived in Florida for 33 years and don't think I've ever seen this much rain in a 3-4 day stretch from a non-tropical cyclone. I live in the Citrus Park area of Tampa, which has had a bullseye on it since Friday. I had 4.02 inches on Friday, 1.54 on Saturday, 3.90 on Sunday, and 0.67 Monday. That's 10.13 inches over a 4 day period, just insane. I watched as the 0.67 fell yesterday, and the second it hit the ground it immediately became standing water on my lawn. The ground just can't take anymore water. Thankfully it looks like we start transitioning to a more normal pattern today and local mets seem extremely confident a front will push through by Sunday.
Looks like it may get cold next week in C FL! ECMWF has it too!


CMC
Quoting 328. tampabaymatt:



I have lived in Florida for 33 years and don't think I've ever seen this much rain in a 3-4 day stretch from a non-tropical cyclone. I live in the Citrus Park area of Tampa, which has had a bullseye on it since Friday. I had 4.02 inches on Friday, 1.54 on Saturday, 3.90 on Sunday, and 0.67 Monday. That's 10.13 inches over a 4 day period, just insane. I watched as the 0.67 fell yesterday, and the second it hit the ground it immediately became standing water on my lawn. The ground just can't take anymore water. Thankfully it looks like we start transitioning to a more normal pattern today and local mets seem extremely confident a front will push through by Sunday.


That's the issue now as normal rains are causing flooding as there is no where for the water to go as everything is full or overflowing.
Quoting 329. SFLWeatherman:

Looks like it may get cold next week in C FL! ECMWF has it too!




Where? I see lows 65 to 70 for my area for one night then back into the low 70's for lows until this in the GFS long range.

Quoting 328. tampabaymatt:



I have lived in Florida for 33 years and don't think I've ever seen this much rain in a 3-4 day stretch from a non-tropical cyclone. I live in the Citrus Park area of Tampa, which has had a bullseye on it since Friday. I had 4.02 inches on Friday, 1.54 on Saturday, 3.90 on Sunday, and 0.67 Monday. That's 10.13 inches over a 4 day period, just insane. I watched as the 0.67 fell yesterday, and the second it hit the ground it immediately became standing water on my lawn. The ground just can't take anymore water. Thankfully it looks like we start transitioning to a more normal pattern today and local mets seem extremely confident a front will push through by Sunday.


I live around the corner from you, off of Ehrlich and the Vets. Tons of rain here. I remember back in Dec of 97 we got a 13 inches in a week in South Tampa.
333. MahFL
Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:



That's the issue now as normal rains are causing flooding as there is no where for the water to go as everything is full or overflowing.


At least there are no wildfires in FL :).
Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:



That's the issue now as normal rains are causing flooding as there is no where for the water to go as everything is full or overflowing.


Exactly, while Gator tries to minimize the rain that fell yesterday, any amount of rain right now is going to cause flooding. The ground is at maximum saturation and there is nowhere for the water to go anymore. My lawn has turned into a swamp and I already see areas that will need to be re-sodded due to the effects of the water. Even a half inch of rain will cause flooding because there has been no time for the ground to dry and the rains just keep coming every day non-stop.
Quoting 332. robintampabay:



I live around the corner from you, off of Ehrlich and the Vets. Tons of rain here. I remember back in Dec of 97 we got a 13 inches in a week in South Tampa.


Wow, we're neighbors. I live exactly in that same area!
Looks like an El-Nino type pattern is beginning to be a choke hold of the southern US. CFS models and Euro long range ensembles are showing well above normal rainfall for October across FL (not as wet as September though).

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like an El-Nino type pattern is beginning to be a choke hold of the southern US. CFS models and Euro long range ensembles are showing well above normal rainfall for October across FL (not as wet as September though).



Wow Scott thats crazy. Congrats on always getting your forecasts spot on! We can rely on you to always giving us accurate info. You're a life saver!

Looks like another bullseye over ya bud, hope you make it through this next batch of heavy flooding rain.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I have lived in Florida for 33 years and don't think I've ever seen this much rain in a 3-4 day stretch from a non-tropical cyclone. I live in the Citrus Park area of Tampa, which has had a bullseye on it since Friday. I had 4.02 inches on Friday, 1.54 on Saturday, 3.90 on Sunday, and 0.67 Monday. That's 10.13 inches over a 4 day period, just insane. I watched as the 0.67 fell yesterday, and the second it hit the ground it immediately became standing water on my lawn. The ground just can't take anymore water. Thankfully it looks like we start transitioning to a more normal pattern today and local mets seem extremely confident a front will push through by Sunday.


I wish we could ship some of this rain over to California, they sure could use it! I hope it dries out for you, too much water is never good. Heck too much of anything is never good, right?
Quoting 335. tampabaymatt:



Wow, we're neighbors. I live exactly in that same area!

Turtle Creek off Bellamy.
Quoting 323. MahFL:



I always thought February was the coldest month ?
January is suppose to be the coldest of our winter..it's the dead of winter..By late February the average Temps are already on the rise to the mid to upper 40's
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area located a
little more than 100 miles northwest of Bermuda is minimal and
development is not expected. The low should move toward the north
and then north-northeast over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

I hope you all don't mind me using this image :)as someone had posted the NOAA maps which showed above normal temps at this time.Looks like both the GFS and the ECWMF agree on a colder than normal weather pattern east of the Rockies.Ohh so sorry.Sooner or later it'll be time to look forward to SNOW .
Hailstorm in TX, USA on Tuesday, 30 September, 2014 at 07:47 (07:47 AM) UTC.
Description
Some of the worst damage from Monday's hail storm occurred near Cherry Creek State Park. Homes near Cherry Creek High School suffered minor damage to window screens and Halloween decorations, to more severe damage to shredded mailboxes, broken car windows and broken skylights. "That hail was quite large," said Jim McKenzie, who came home to broken skylights. He used two large golf umbrellas to act as temporary cover, until he can get a permanent fix. "I climbed up on (my desk) and was trying to open (the umbrellas) up through the hole, but I wasn't tall enough, so I actually went outside grabbed my ladder, opened them up outside and then just dropped them in through the holes that the hail had created," said McKenzie. Not wanting to upset his homeowner's association, he plans to replace the umbrellas with a different cover until the skylights can be fixed. "I actually went over to the home improvement store and picked up some tarps, so I'm going to tarp it up," said McKenzie. Just blocks away, the hail ripped leaves off trees and broke windows in multiple homes. "All of a sudden out the window, we saw golf ball-sized hail," said Andrea Starlin. "I heard a crash." When she looked outside, she saw her car in the driveway with a shattered back window. "It's slightly frustrating when your entire car is demolished," said Starlin. "A little dent, a little ding is OK, but the entire car?" The car would have been in the garage, but her kids have a bicycle charity taking up one half of the garage. There was a second car in the garage, and she had to take that out in the hail to pick up her kids from school. While swapping cars in the garage, she actually put on protective gear to keep from getting hurt in the hail. "A ski helmet; it's silly, but hail hurts," said Starlin. "This is not what you expect on September 29."
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco (This weekend)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA
Extreme Weather in CO, USA on Tuesday, 30 September, 2014 at 03:40 (03:40 AM) UTC.
Description
Severe thunderstorms brought damaging hail to parts of metro Denver Monday afternoon. At the same time, heavy snow fell in parts of Colorado's southwest and central mountains. And if you didn't experience major hail or snow, you probably had heavy rain. "Within seconds all you heard was hard impact," says Ray Saccomano of Arapahoe Hyundai. The auto dealership in Centennial had damage everywhere. "We have over 500 cars on our lot and each and everyone got damaged. It looked like it snowed in September." The storm system, which moved up from the southwest part of the state, dropped heavy snow on Telluride and Crested Butte before dumping up to an inch of dime-, nickel and quarter-sized hail in parts of Centennial and Highlands Ranch. Photos sent in by FOX31 Denver viewers showed hail flood portions of I-225, parking lots and backyards in areas south of Denver. A tornado warning was issued for central Arapahoe and northwestern Elbert counties late Monday afternoon and a tornado watch was also put in effect for Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas counties that expired at 9 p.m. Though Denver did not get much more than heavy rain, areas all around the city like Northglenn, Thornton, Aurora also saw intense hail from the storm system. The storm forced some schools to change release plans for students Monday afternoon. Both Adams 12 and Cherry Creek delayed the release of students. The system was expected to move out of the metro area later Monday night, while producing more severe weather on the Eastern Plains. Tuesday was forecast to be a calm, dry day ahead of more stormy weather on Wednesday.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL
AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND EXERCISE CAUTION IF ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAIN TODAY.

We didn’t know much about hurricanes back in 1848. We don’t know much about the hurricane that hit Tampa Bay on this date either. It formed somewhere out in the Gulf of Mexico but there isn’t even an estimated track.

The hurricane intensity is in doubt as well, the only wind measurements put it as a category 1 and the measured barometric pressure wasn’t much stronger. But how much confidence do we have in these measurements in the mid 1800s?

One solid way of determining hurricane strength is to know the storm surge, which was 15 feet in what is now Downtown Tampa. That would make this a category 3 or even a 4! As far as we do know, this was probably the strongest hurricane to hit Tampa Bay.

Imagine 15 feet of storm surge today? In 1848,it reportedly cut Pinellas County in half. This in our nightmare scenario today. The storm surge gets so high in Tampa Bay, the water surges back through the middle of Pinellas County to get back to the Gulf. Such an event today would be an epic disaster and change our area forever. In 1848, there wasn’t much to damage.

We do know a few other things about the 1848 hurricane. It made landfall right in Pinellas County at Clearwater, this would have pushed incredible amounts of water directly into Tampa Bay. John’s pass was cut and other passes filled in. The power of the storm surge on the barrier islands would be enough to wipe them clean of buildings today. The Egmont Key Lighthouse was destroyed, the lighthouse keeper barely survived in a small boat.

So we do know that since the mid 1800s, two major hurricanes have hit Tampa Bay directly: 1848 and 1921. In 1848 there was a 15 foot storm surge in Downtown Tampa and in 1921 about a 10 foot surge. The area is far overdue for another major hurricane but this time with over a million people in the path, many living in areas we know went underwater in the past.

Not all future hurricane seasons will be as quiet as the last several, history will repeat.
Quoting 347. LargoFl:

We didn’t know much about hurricanes back in 1848. We don’t know much about the hurricane that hit Tampa Bay on this date either. It formed somewhere out in the Gulf of Mexico but there isn’t even an estimated track.

The hurricane intensity is in doubt as well, the only wind measurements put it as a category 1 and the measured barometric pressure wasn’t much stronger. But how much confidence do we have in these measurements in the mid 1800s?

One solid way of determining hurricane strength is to know the storm surge, which was 15 feet in what is now Downtown Tampa. That would make this a category 3 or even a 4! As far as we do know, this was probably the strongest hurricane to hit Tampa Bay.

Imagine 15 feet of storm surge today? In 1848,it reportedly cut Pinellas County in half. This in our nightmare scenario today. The storm surge gets so high in Tampa Bay, the water surges back through the middle of Pinellas County to get back to the Gulf. Such an event today would be an epic disaster and change our area forever. In 1848, there wasn’t much to damage.

We do know a few other things about the 1848 hurricane. It made landfall right in Pinellas County at Clearwater, this would have pushed incredible amounts of water directly into Tampa Bay. John’s pass was cut and other passes filled in. The power of the storm surge on the barrier islands would be enough to wipe them clean of buildings today. The Egmont Key Lighthouse was destroyed, the lighthouse keeper barely survived in a small boat.

So we do know that since the mid 1800s, two major hurricanes have hit Tampa Bay directly: 1848 and 1921. In 1848 there was a 15 foot storm surge in Downtown Tampa and in 1921 about a 10 foot surge. The area is far overdue for another major hurricane but this time with over a million people in the path, many living in areas we know went underwater in the past.

Not all future hurricane seasons will be as quiet as the last several, history will repeat.



Which is why there's likely no way the Cuba Hurricane of Oct. 1924 was the first Category 5 storm in the Atlantic, just until records were started. Even then, equipment to measure intensity of landfalling storms are not as strong as they are today. San Ciriaco for example took the Hatteras village anemometer to 140 mph sustained several minutes to 120 before being ripped off. And if anemometers today can have error (I believe a 200 mph gust from Andrew was dropped to 175 I'd have to find the source) who knows.
Quoting 328. tampabaymatt:



I have lived in Florida for 33 years and don't think I've ever seen this much rain in a 3-4 day stretch from a non-tropical cyclone. I live in the Citrus Park area of Tampa, which has had a bullseye on it since Friday. I had 4.02 inches on Friday, 1.54 on Saturday, 3.90 on Sunday, and 0.67 Monday. That's 10.13 inches over a 4 day period, just insane. I watched as the 0.67 fell yesterday, and the second it hit the ground it immediately became standing water on my lawn. The ground just can't take anymore water. Thankfully it looks like we start transitioning to a more normal pattern today and local mets seem extremely confident a front will push through by Sunday.


It's been a lot more localized over here. I live in Westchase and I've probably gotten half that much rain. From the way the radar looked on Sunday, I would have guessed more than 4 inches for Citrus Park. I got a lot of rain but it was pretty steady and not too many big downpours. Looked like a constant downpour in some areas.
Quoting 323. MahFL:



I always thought February was the coldest month ?


Nope, in most of the eastern two thirds of the U.S. it's January. February is more variable
and a lot of station period of record absolute lows are in February.
6 day forecast.
This will bring bright sunshine and lower humidity to most of the state of Florida.


30 September 2014 - Early Met Office figures show this is set to be the driest September across the UK since records began in 1910, with exceptionally low rainfall for many parts of the country.


Exceptionally low rainfall in September

Using figures from 1-28 September, the UK as a whole has received 19.4 mm of rain, which is just 20 % of the normal amount of rainfall we'd expect for the month. Prior to this, the driest September on record was 1959 with 23.8 mm.

Looking at individual countries, Northern Ireland should break the record for September dryness with only 6.5 mm of rain, just 7 % of the average. The previous record was set in 1986, with 9.7 mm. However, England, Wales and Scotland are likely to have their second driest September on record, with earlier records being set in 1959 (7.9 mm), 1959 (11.7 mm) and 1972 (31.7 mm) respectively.

Dry month in a wet year


This September follows on from the 8th wettest August on record and comes in a generally very wet year - this January to August is the wettest such period in the records, mainly as a result of the very wet start to the year and the wettest winter on record.

This is borne out by water levels around the UK. Trevor Bishop, Environment Agency deputy director of water resources, said: "Following the wettest January to August on record, water resources in England are around normal for the time of year.

"We also look ahead by modelling how rivers and groundwater may respond to different future rainfall patterns. The results show a broadly positive picture and even if rainfall is below average this autumn the country will not go into drought."

A top ten month for temperatures


The mean temperature for the UK so far has been 13.9 C, which is 1.2 C above the long-term average. This means it has been the joint 4th warmest September in the records back to 1910, but is well below the record of 15.2 C set in 2006.

Sunshine amounts have been closer to average, with 94 % of what we would normally expect across the UK.

The dry and warm conditions this month have been caused by high pressure dominating our weather for much of the month.

This tends to block more unsettled weather heading in off the Atlantic, leaving the UK with fine, dry and fairly sunny weather at this time of the year.


Link

October looks to turn to back normal though, with rain coming at the end of this week and throughout next week, with a slight dip in the temperature. Today has felt very warm though, more like the middle of August than the end of September!
Quoting 328. tampabaymatt:



I have lived in Florida for 33 years and don't think I've ever seen this much rain in a 3-4 day stretch from a non-tropical cyclone. I live in the Citrus Park area of Tampa, which has had a bullseye on it since Friday. I had 4.02 inches on Friday, 1.54 on Saturday, 3.90 on Sunday, and 0.67 Monday. That's 10.13 inches over a 4 day period, just insane. I watched as the 0.67 fell yesterday, and the second it hit the ground it immediately became standing water on my lawn. The ground just can't take anymore water. Thankfully it looks like we start transitioning to a more normal pattern today and local mets seem extremely confident a front will push through by Sunday.


Similar multiday totals occurred in the DC metro area in September 1975, and September 2011, both with some form of decaying tropical system (Eloise in 1975, Lee in 2011]. In 1975, a July event caused July-Sept totals to exceed 30 inches over Southern PG county. A few points in Northern VA had weekly totals well up in the teens of inches with Lee.
Quoting 342. washingtonian115:


I hope you all don't mind me using this image :)as someone had posted the NOAA maps which showed above normal temps at this time.Looks like both the GFS and the ECWMF agree on a colder than normal weather pattern east of the Rockies.Ohh so sorry.Sooner or later it'll be time to look forward to SNOW .


Sept 30, 1984 39F in Tallahassee. Record low for date and month.
Oct 1984 6F above normal. No cold frontal passages the entire month.


This kind of cold is on the early side of normal (slightly early] for the upper south and lower Ohio valley.
By October 15, I'm starting to think about frost threat at my own home and garden in College Park Maryland.


I was in the Texas Hill Country for this event and homes were washed away and there was unbelievable flooding.



Yes, I remember. Lake Travis is a huge lake, and its incredible that it overran its spillway. I read that engineers who designed the lake containment structures said they never imagined the spillway being used.
Quoting 356. Sfloridacat5:

I was in the Texas Hill Country for this event and homes were washed away and it was unbelievable flooding.




Quoting DFWdad:
Yes, I remember. Lake Travis is a huge lake, and its incredible that it overran its spillway. I read that engineers who designed the lake containment structures said they never imagined the spillway being used.


That picture is from Canyon Lake. I was in Boerne at the time and we went up and checked out the area.


From Wiki

The storm total of 48 inches (1,200 mm) measured at Medina is the wettest known storm total rainfall amount for both the state of Texas and any tropical cyclone impacting the continental United States.[49] A 12-hour total of 26 inches (660 mm) of rain at Abilene was an extreme example of the precipitation.[3]

Also, 8 people were killed as a result of a flash flood ("50ft wall of water). Total 20-30 killed from the storm all together.
The Doc will be on in a little while, so I will repost this later.

Don't try to play angel.You accused me of making multiple accounts then went on yesterday talking about you rather here about Florida weather than snow in summer.You've been out for revenge.You've been sneak dissing me every chance you get.Some days I haven't even been on and yet when I read back there you are talking smack.I'm done giving you attention.

Tropical Depression RACHEL
8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 30
Location: 23.1°N 117.5°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Quoting #353. Envoirment

It's been very dry here in North-West England for the past few weeks, with very little rainfall, but yesterday we had a very intense downpour for about an hour which saturated the ground and it rained until the early hours of this morning. Today has been more calm, with only a small shower earlier this afternoon.

2002 Guadalupe River flooding, Texas



Quoting 367. Sfloridacat5:

2002 Guadalupe River flooding, Texas


omg up to the roof
Dear Ireland,

We have your weather.

Florida.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 366. ZacWeatherKidUK:

Quoting #353. Envoirment

It's been very dry here in North-West England for the past few weeks, with very little rainfall, but yesterday we had a very intense downpour for about an hour which saturated the ground and it rained until the early hours of this morning. Today has been more calm, with only a small shower earlier this afternoon.




I would love to try gardening in any part of the UK but will probably never get the chance (Fairbanks, Iceland and Minnesota are also on my imaginary bucket list). Winters except at elevation are milder than we experience in
the middle atlantic region and I'd like to try a summer climate that doesn't blast or boil my greens to death each year.
Link

Ok, I see that the central Florida chain of lakes I am focused on in RED are in fact surrounded by a sea of blue highly hidrated lakes.
With all this rain, why is the Ocklawaha still red? It should be at least green.
Quoting 367. Sfloridacat5:

2002 Guadalupe River flooding, Texas






Jesus, it's almost up to the roof! Wasn't this in new Braunfels because I remember they got some pretty bad flooding like a decade or so ago.