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96L Little Threat; Arctic Sea Ice Bottoms Out at 6th Lowest Extent on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:04 PM GMT on September 25, 2014

In the Atlantic, a small area of low pressure (Invest 96L) formed Wednesday evening in the middle Atlantic Ocean near 15°N 45°W, about halfway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show that 96L has a pronounced low-level spin, but only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite loops show 96L is surrounded on all sides by large amounts of dry air. With wind shear expected to stay moderate for the next five days, this dry air is likely to keep 96L from developing. None of the reliable tropical cyclone genesis models predict that 96L will develop, and In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. The storm should move slowly northwest during the remainder of the week.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 96L.

Two new tropical cyclones in the Pacific
Two new tropical cyclones formed in the Pacific on Wednesday. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Rachel formed a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Our reliable computer models keep Rachel well offshore of the coast of Mexico, and this storm is unlikely to be a threat to any land areas. Rachel's formation gives the Eastern Pacific east of 140°W 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees just 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with three of those named storms and one hurricane occurring after September 25.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Kammuri is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon this weekend, but recurve out to sea well offshore from Japan.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice age (in years) in August during 2004, 2012, and 2014. Comparing 2004 (left) to the all-time record low year of 2012 shows a huge loss of old, thick ice. Old ice is much more difficult to melt off compared to thin first-year ice, which can completely melt out during unusually warm and sunny summers. Old, thick ice has recovered some during 2013 and again in 2014, though there has not been much change in the ice aged 3 or more years. Image credit: University of Colorado.

Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest yearly extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent bottomed out at the 6th lowest extent in the 36-year satellite record on September 17 and is now growing, said the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) this week. Some of the 2nd-year ice that survived the summer of 2013 has also survived the summer of 2014, so the ice pack is armoring itself a bit going into 2015 with more multi-year ice than usual. This does not mean the Arctic sea ice is on its way to recovery, unfortunately, as Steve Gregory explains in his detailed look at this year's Arctic sea ice minimum in his Wednesday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Rachel
Quoting 491. ncstorm:



according to the blog just this week it was stated GW ranked over all social issues..read back..its there in print unless modified..
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On the same day, it was also mentioned that amongst his many talents, Scott is a rapper. Unfortunately, this seems to have been overshadowed by the climate change conference. Any additional news on this would be appreciated. Thank you!

Quoting Doppler22:

The East Coast is very lax on earthquakes. Which can be problematic, because as GT said, New Madrid can spit some big ones out. There is a possibility in Virginia and then down in the GOM. There's even a potential for a Tsunami due to the Mid Atlantic Ridge and happenings off Iceland. Not common, but not impossible.


Hi Logan! How have you been? Waiting for winter? :)
Ok with the lack of TC activity... only if we get RAIN!

But even the RAIN is absent...

It looks like the rain season has disappeared and the dry season now lasts ALL YEAR LONG ://
Quoting 460. nigel20:



The story of him proving that lightning was electricity seems dubious though. Lightning can produce up to 1 billion volts of electricity, 30 000 amps of current and temps that exceed 25 000 C. It's likely that he would've been electrocuted using the kite experiment. But who knows, maybe he had insulation that was able to counter 30000 amps. :)
Lightning is a discharge of a LOT of static electricity. Franklin discovered that the static buildup in the clouds can be captured, and his experiment captured a small amount, enough to make a small spark. He extrapolated from that that lightning is a very large spark caused the same way. The result was that he created a device for continually discharging the static charge so it didn't build up and discharge violently -- lightning rods. Franklin was lucky, though, that the wet kite string wasn't a better conductor, or that a lightning discharge didn't find it. A Frenchman who duplicated Franklin's experiment was killed when the lightning found his kite string.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Ok with the lack of TC activity... only if we get RAIN!

But even the RAIN is absent...

It looks like the rain season has disappeared and the dry season now lasts ALL YEAR LONG ://


A saw a report in the Trinidad express a couple days ago. The term "dry rainy season" to describe the rainfall situation in specific areas of Trinidad.

modest rainfall
Quoting nigel20:


Unless he's able to install a solar pv system (upfront costs are still inhibitive) or wind turbine, then he'll have very little control over state controlled power plants. Plus, whether or not we believe in climate climate, we all know that air pollution is approaching calamitous levels across the globe. We should push for policy changes, that will at least foster a reduction in air pollution.
Air conditioners are a great example of energy pricing and technology coming together. I bought my first air conditioner in 1967. It was 5,000 BTU unit, cost about $300 (in 1967 dollars) and used so much power it had to be on its own 20 amp circuit. I have no clue about how much power it used. Electricity was cheap and no one worried about such things. It was huge. It weighed about 100 pounds and I had to construct a special mount so it wouldn't make the window fall out of the frame.

I just helped a friend buy a new window unit for his home. He has a relatively small home as was looking for a 15,000 btu unit that would cool most of the house. We found a Friedrich CP15G10 that runs on 155 volts, pulls 12 amps at maximum power, and has a 10.7 energy rating. At the price of electricity in Alabama, it will cost about $100 a year to run. It weighs 134 pounds but it's also has three times more capacity than my old clunker. The best part was it only cost $486 delivered from Amazon. Compared to the $300 I spent in 1967, it should have cost $2,136.40 in inflation adjusted numbers. So we got a cheaper, larger capacity, and more efficient air conditioner because a combination of higher electricity costs that made it more expensive to have air conditioning and government regulations that made it easy to compare power efficiency all came together at the right time. He's not running it from a solar panel or windmill but, compared to 50 years ago, it's quite a savings in energy and money.



Quoting 498. canyonboy:

I'm curious why the headline isn't "Antarctic Sea Ice At Record High Level"?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2014/09/17/antarctic-sea-ice-expands-to -record-high-level-arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-to-sixth -lowest/

I don't understand why scepticism is such a sin. Let the facts speak.

Skepticism is not a sin. Not acknowledging the facts should be.
511. SLU
512. SLU
Quoting 498. canyonboy:

I'm curious why the headline isn't "Antarctic Sea Ice At Record High Level"?


It was a headline, only not for the skeptics. That's probably why it's not all over the Murdoch press.

Try This Story or this more technical piece.

One of the theories for the increase is due to the sheer volume of fresh water melting from the surface of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is pooling at the surface around the continent. Fresher water does this (it's much less dense), and it also has a much higher freezing point - fresh water freezes on or about 0 while normal sea-water is a couple of degrees lower.

Why is there so much more meltwater there, well that's the real story.

The truth really is out there.
Quoting 506. CaneFreeCR:

Lightning is a discharge of a LOT of static electricity. Franklin discovered that the static buildup in the clouds can be captured, and his experiment captured a small amount, enough to make a small spark. He extrapolated from that that lightning is a very large spark caused the same way. The result was that he created a device for continually discharging the static charge so it didn't build up and discharge violently -- lightning rods. Franklin was lucky, though, that the wet kite string wasn't a better conductor, or that a lightning discharge didn't find it. A Frenchman who duplicated Franklin's experiment was killed when the lightning found his kite string.
Another story has it that he sent a indentured servant to fly the kite. In those days the largest groups of slaves were Irish/ Scottish, so the claim has a reasonable degree of believability. " Today's gonna be an easy day for you. Go fly this kite whilst I jot down notes from the eave."
Quoting 507. nigel20:



A saw a report in the Trinidad express a couple days ago. The term "dry rainy season" to describe the rainfall situation in specific areas of Trinidad.
Yeah, it's been a peculiar season.
For instance, here in Central we had nearly 2'' rain yesterday, and 4 miles away there was none.
Heavy, isolated showers, not at all widespread ''ITCZ stuff'' like we would normally get at this time of the year.

So today, the Water Authority is saying that there are low levels in some of the reservoirs and they may need to conserve....
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Lightning is a discharge of a LOT of static electricity. Franklin discovered that the static buildup in the clouds can be captured, and his experiment captured a small amount, enough to make a small spark. He extrapolated from that that lightning is a very large spark caused the same way. The result was that he created a device for continually discharging the static charge so it didn't build up and discharge violently -- lightning rods. Franklin was lucky, though, that the wet kite string wasn't a better conductor, or that a lightning discharge didn't find it. A Frenchman who duplicated Franklin's experiment was killed when the lightning found his kite string.


A charge has to build up at the surface for "cloud to ground lightning to occur.
Anyone living in Southeastern Florida just to let you know there's a storm spotter training class in Ft. Lauderdale. I'm planning on attending it and if anyone else is interested here's the site to go to to sign up.
The class is from 10AM-230PM.

Link

Quoting 499. Doppler22:


The East Coast is very lax on earthquakes. Which can be problematic, because as GT said, New Madrid can spit some big ones out. There is a possibility in Virginia and then down in the GOM. There's even a potential for a Tsunami due to the Mid Atlantic Ridge and happenings off Iceland. Not common, but not impossible.


The 5.8 in Central VA was a wake up to this generation that we can get them here too. I was in the NCEP WWB and felt like the bone in a terrier's mouth as the building shook hard enough for tiles to come off the ceiling and things on desks to slide back and forth. The Washington Monument was damaged and has only recently opened after three years
Quoting 515. pottery:

Yeah, it's been a peculiar season.
For instance, here in Central we had nearly 2'' rain yesterday, and 4 miles away there was none.
Heavy, isolated showers, not at all widespread ''ITCZ stuff'' like we would normally get at this time of the year.

So today, the Water Authority is saying that there are low levels in some of the reservoirs and they may need to conserve....

rains will become more sporadic overtime as things change up
A welcome rain on the King Fire today; a little whiff of smoke this morning, fresh clean air this afternoon!

"The Pacific system came through the fire area today bringing 0.6-0.9 inches of rain. The observed fire activity was minimal with smoldering in interior pockets of the heavier fuels. The rain began moving out of the area around 1500 followed by clear skies.
Zone 1: The diminished threat to the local communities and values at risk, we were able to begin substantial demobilization of resources. We will be maintaining adequate resources to meet incident objectives.
Zone 2: A cold front moved through producing showers and steady rain in Zone 2 with rain totals reaching up to 3/4 inch with pockets up to 1 inch. The south and southwest areas (Branch I and III) have been combined. Control lines are in with mop up and patrol continues. There are still concerns with roll out and slung line in the western portion near Rubicon drainage area but direct and indirect lines have been strengthened. The southeast area spot fires have been caught and tied into Little Silver Creek and Junction Reservoir. Existing control lines were strengthened with mop up and patrolling.
Completion of containment lines continue to be coordinated between Zones 1 and 2."

Link
Quoting 508. PedleyCA:


modest rainfall
I would be concentrating on the fault lines in that map. Sure, your parents had a few bookshelves knocked over. In the thirteenth book of the Mahabharata, also called the Teaching Book (Anushasana Parva), sixth chapter opens with Yudhisthira asking Bhisma: "Is the course of a person's life already destined, or can human effort shape one's life?"[53] The future, replies Bhisma, is both a function of current human effort derived from free will and past human actions that set the circumstances." You don't know lonely, till it's written in stone.
gonna be area of low pressure stall and backdoor off atlantic seaboard drift s sw ward three or four days


nam hr 84


Quoting yankees440:
Anyone living in Southeastern Florida just to let you know there's a storm spotter training class in Ft. Lauderdale. I'm planning on attending it and if anyone else is interested here's the site to go to to sign up.
The class is from 10AM-230PM.

Link

Im
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
On the topic of Florida



Intersting, thanks for sharing!!!!! :)
Quoting nigel20:


A charge has to build up at the surface for "cloud to ground lightning to occur.


Sorry for quoting myself, but I'm having modification probs.

But the charge at the surface is opposite to the charge of the base of the cloud. If Benjamin Franklin was outside flying a kite, he'd have built up a likely positive charge, making him a possible medium to tranfer an electrical charge.

For us to see a flash of lightning (cloud to ground), there has to be an interaction/attraction of the charges (opposite) of the cloud, and that of the surface. So before we see the flash known as lightning, a charge (streamer) would've flown through his body to meet the descending stepped leader.

Like those cartoons, he would've lit up like a Christmas tree. :)

NYG 44 - Wash 14
nam hr 84 300mb layer

I guess Orcasystems doesn't blog on here anymore.
Quoting 494. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I had a nap I just woke up how is everyone this evening fine I hope
Hurricane forming in the GOM! Everyone panicking!
Quoting 528. ElConando:

I guess Orcasystems doesn't blog on here anymore.


have not seen him in long time

last I heard he was buying a house out in the woods
Quoting pottery:
Yeah, it's been a peculiar season.
For instance, here in Central we had nearly 2'' rain yesterday, and 4 miles away there was none.
Heavy, isolated showers, not at all widespread ''ITCZ stuff'' like we would normally get at this time of the year.

So today, the Water Authority is saying that there are low levels in some of the reservoirs and they may need to conserve....


Amazing! As you know, pottery, we were having major drought conditions. But we have seen an improvement recently, our largest dam is at 50% of capacity, up from approximately 20%.
Quoting 499. Doppler22:


The East Coast is very lax on earthquakes. Which can be problematic, because as GT said, New Madrid can spit some big ones out. There is a possibility in Virginia and then down in the GOM. There's even a potential for a Tsunami due to the Mid Atlantic Ridge and happenings off Iceland. Not common, but not impossible.
Just a matter of time.
Quoting 521. Pallis:

I would be concentrating on the fault lines in that map. Sure, your parents had a few bookshelves knocked over. In the thirteenth book of the Mahabharata, also called the Teaching Book (Anushasana Parva), sixth chapter opens with Yudhisthira asking Bhisma: "Is the course of a person's life already destined, or can human effort shape one's life?"[53] The future, replies Bhisma, is both a function of current human effort derived from free will and past human actions that set the circumstances." You don't know lonely, till it's written in stone.

You took the words right out of my mouth. That's exactly what I was thinking. Or not.
Quoting 534. Pallis:

Just a matter of time.
everything is just a matter of time nothing can be ruled out
Kammuri is huge.. 450nm of gale winds from NE to SW..
Quoting 472. Xyrus2000:



How can someone so enamored by the science of weather systems suddenly toss science in the trash and claim that some magical space fairy controls the climate system? Do you still think that some bearded adulterer on a mountain is responsible for lighting bolts and some handicapped blacksmith is the real cause of volcanic eruptions as well?

It's physics and chemistry, not magic.


I'll try this again, as apparently this quote is "on topic", but my retort was not, sir/madam moderator.

Would you like to elaborate as to how physics and chemistry are responsible for lightning bolts, and not "some bearded adulterer on a mountain", (I will assume you mean God here)? What is it exactly that makes science and the presence of God mutually exclusive? Science can explain the process of lightning formation, and the process of hurricane development, but exactly how does it disprove how that process is even allowed to be set into place?

Or, as I will try again, do you just resort to childish retorts when you are confronted with a thought too challenging for you to comprehend?
Quoting 533. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


At least Dak's up on a hill. Maybe we should start some kind of relief fund to send him a seal club for winter garment making.
Quoting 538. timtlu:



I'll try this again, as apparently this quote is "on topic", but my retort was not, sir/madam moderator.

Would you like to elaborte as to how physics and chemistry are responsible for lightning bolts, and not "some bearded adulterer on a mountain", (I will assume you mean God here). What is it exactly that makes science and the presence of God mutually exclusive. Science can explain the process of lightning formation, and the process of hurricane development, but exactly how does it disprove how that process is even allowed to be set into place?

Or, as I will try again, do you just resort to childish retorts when you are confronted with a thought to challenging for you to comprehend?


Generally, those "hate"theist types tend to be hateful, disrespectful and think they're so high and mighty just because they don't believe in a god, not to mention they blame a god they don't believe in for the bad things yet say there's no god whenever something good happens. Honestly, I kind of hate atheists. Not that they're all like that, but most of the ones I've seen are. The thing is, I'll respect other points of view as long as they respect mine. That's why I'm cool with agnostics. They respect other points of view and are capable of rational debate without name calling.
Sorry if I offended anyone with that last post. I can be brutally honest sometimes.
Quoting 537. Skyepony:

Kammuri is huge.. 450nm of gale winds from NE to SW..

I know been watchin it
Quoting timtlu:


I'll try this again, as apparently this quote is "on topic", but my retort was not, sir/madam moderator.

Would you like to elaborate as to how physics and chemistry are responsible for lightning bolts, and not "some bearded adulterer on a mountain", (I will assume you mean God here). What is it exactly that makes science and the presence of God mutually exclusive. Science can explain the process of lightning formation, and the process of hurricane development, but exactly how does it disprove how that process is even allowed to be set into place?

Or, as I will try again, do you just resort to childish retorts when you are confronted with a thought to challenging for you to comprehend?


I think he/she was implying that each flash of lightning is random, and not directly associated with God.

God's existence is a different matter. Strong points can be made for or against.
96L on ASCAT
Anyway, 2 years ago today I almost got struck by lightning. I was watching a storm roll in and there was some lightning in the distance. The rain shaft was 5-10 miles away. As I was watching it, a nice cg hit less than 100 ft. Away From me! Somehow, I didn't feel much of a shock yet there was no little crater where it did strike. At least it wasn't raining but it did pour right after.
I may have forgotten mythology but I think the "bearded adulterer" was Zeus
Quoting 536. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

everything is just a matter of time nothing can be ruled out


Like that weather channel show "it could happen tomorrow". The best you can do is prepare.
Quoting 544. nigel20:



I think he/she was implying that each flash of lightning is random, and not directly associated with God.

God's existence is a different matter. Strong points can be made for or against.


Your second sentence I can halfway get behind, if by points you mean grounds.

Your first sentence, however? I suggest you reread the original post. It is quite clear that the poster was not making an attempt to clarify scientific process, ie. hurricane development or lightning formation.




Please, please, please, tropical storm, please. Thank You Weather Gods.
Hmm... no one's comments are showing up. Well, see you all later!
The only thing now is to wait for the secondary peak which comes in the middle of October to see if the season will go out with a bang. Anyways enjoyed the CC/AGW discussions on here tonight. Hope everyone has a goodnight. Stay safe and dry.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
The only thing now is to wait for the secondary peak which comes in the middle of October to see if the season will go out with a bang. Anyways enjoyed the CC/AGW discussions on here tonight. Hope everyone has a goodnight. Stay safe and dry.

Same to you, Caleb! I'm off to bed myself.
Quoting 413. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I seriously hope we get a full fledged El Nino to wipe the atmosphere clean. If I did not know any better we have conditions of El Nino, strong westerly wind shear, dry air in the MDR, there has been absolutely no development in the Western Caribbean and strengthening of storms have been taking place in the subtropical Atlantic, but that Nino 3.4 region sst for whatever reason does not want to respond.


I've been trying to compile some research onto what characteristics set certain El Ninos apart from others in terms of resulting in +AMO spike & more importantly later upticks in tropical cyclone activity. As you would probably expect, no two El Ninos are created alike & their effects on the Atlantic Hurricane Season differ from event to event. Of course, using previous knowledge & information I've posted here before that El Ninos through modulation of the subtropical jet and a Rossby Wave train "conveyor" in the western hemisphere sector that effectively erodes built-up heat in the subtropical Atlantic that accumulates in the residence period between successive El Ninos via lower tropospheric wind stress. This creates a boreal winter pattern that reflects the +AMO, which thereby actually makes El Ninos beneficiary for the long-term health of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
+AMO DJF 500mb pattern


All El Ninos since 1950 mean DJF 500mb pattern


AMO/MEI cross correlation shows that the AMO tends to follow the overall state of the Pacific, with a spectral peak of ~6-12 months or so (i.e. the lag between MEI & the subsequent AMO spike)


A few more graphics...
MEI & JFM SST in the "Deep Tropical Atlantic" (along/east of 60W & south of 20N) Upticks in Deep Tropical Atlantic SSTs follow El Ninos...


MEI & total AMO using 5 month running mean, correspondence between the two oscillations is fairly evident here



Now, using seasonal Hurricane ACE, I compared the monthly 500mb patterns in winter using the exact same units (in terms of anomalies) of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons immediately following an El Nino vs the top 10 most inactive years...

(Active yrs-Inactive yrs)
December


January


February


Then of course top 5 years...
December


January


February


What you should make note of here is that in order to more efficiently crank out a large +AMO spike, it would be preferred for the 500mb height anomalies to situate themselves deep into the heart of the subtropical Atlantic. What's interesting is that the classic +AMO signature in the difference of 500mb anomalies seems most prevalent early in the winter, towards December, however, as you get towards January & especially February, the 500mb anomaly differences retreat north & actually reverse in the latter, thus suggesting that in terms of El Nino's impact on the following hurricane season in the Atlantic, it may be comparatively negligible at best in February vs earlier in the winter...

Using a few examples, here are some El Nino winters that got off to a slow start in terms of establishing below normal height anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic, yet flipped in February to a more classic +AMO, but were generally busts in terms of overall activity the following hurricane season...

1982-83, preceding the quietest hurricane season since 1950...

Dec 1982


Feb 1983


2006-07, actually had more TC activity in the preceding El Nino season...

Dec 2006


Feb 2007



Of course this correlation is somewhat invertible, the winter of 2002-03 is a good example of a winter that kickstarted its +AMO look early in the winter & backed off significantly later, while still resulting in a "hyperactive" hurricane season the following yr...

Dec 2002


Feb 2003


Taking a time series plot of the 500mb height anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic (I defined this region in my analysis as ranging from 30N-47.5N & 70-20W),
Link

I found some intriguing data, some of which supports my initial hypothesis that lower heights in the subtropics earlier in the winter vs later are more often associated w/ active seasons the in succeeding year, however, out of pure curiosity, I decided to expand my analysis from September thru March. Here are the differences in mean monthly, tri-monthly, & SONDJFM average Atlantic Hurricane ACE in yrs that are .5 standard deviations away from the mean 500mb heights for their respective time period (this was done to attain more data, thus being more satisfactory statistically in terms of normality, while at the same time trying to remain at a significant levels, enough to more precisely "detect" the differences in TC activity in respective El Ninos.) Remember I'm looking for El Nino years with below normal heights in the subtropics to indicate a response more reminiscent to that of +AMO, which would generally equate to more TC activity overall the following season.
(BN=Below Normal Heights , AB=Above Normal Heights)
Month & Average ACE in
September
BN: 79.6 pts ACE
AN: 118.7 pts ACE
Difference: ~ -39pts

October
BN: 168.8 pts ACE
AN: 84.3 pts ACE
Difference: ~+85 pts ACE

November
BN: 130.4 pts ACE
AB: 80.9 pts ACE
Difference: ~ +50 pts ACE

December
BN: 131.3 pts ACE
AB: 107.1 pts ACE
Difference: ~ 24 pts ACE

January
BN: 112 pts ACE
AB: 116.9 pts ACE
Difference: ~ -5 pts ACE

February
BN: 117.3 pts ACE
AB: 126.4 pts ACE
Difference: ~ -9 pts ACE

March
BN: 139 pts ACE
AB: 91.7 pts ACE
Difference: ~ +47 pts ACE

Continuing w/ tri-monthly periods

SON
BN: 146.6 pts ACE
AB: 85 pts ACE
Difference: ~ +60 pts ACE

OND
BN: 141.1 pts ACE
AB: 79.6 pts ACE
Difference: ~ +62 pts ACE

NDJ
BN: 121.3 pts ACE
AB: 128.2 pts ACE
Difference: ~ -7 pts ACE

DJF
BN: 122.3 pts ACE
AB: 123.8 pts ACE
Difference: ~ -1.5 pts ACE

JFM
BN: 118.9 pts ACE
AB: 113 pts ACE
Difference: ~ +6 pts ACE

Total
BN: 132 pts ACE
AB: 113.6 pts ACE
Difference: ~ +18 pts ACE

I'd be lying to you if I said the results of this analysis didn't surprise me. First of all, I was just expecting the largest difference in ACE to be weighted towards December, but I wouldn't have thought that the largest discrepancies between El Ninos & the following hurricane season's ACE laid in the preceding October, let alone the largest differences overall were outside the heart of winter suggesting that interdecadal persistence of the AMO is a key to the divergence in the effects from respective El Ninos, yet the preceding fall pattern closer to the onset of the El Nino (as evidenced by the >+50 pts ACE difference in October & November) seems to be significant contributor to the eventual implications the El Nino has on the following hurricane season. I also dug into the October patterns and noticed that the El Ninos occurring ahead of an "active yr" tend to experience persistent blocking north of Japan, near the Sea of Okhotsk in various combinations I went through. Perhaps hinting at a possible teleconnection the WPO?...

Top 10 Most Active/Inactive yrs


Top 5 Most Active/Inactive yrs


I also took notice of the top 5 sets of yrs in the +AMO (Active yrs-Inactive yrs) being associated with a comparatively colder than normal October in the US ...


Given the fact that October & November showed the most divergence in their effects from El Nino, I'm honestly not sure what to make of all this. My head is certainly in a pretzel trying to contemplate possible solutions to explain the data I've put forth...
Quoting 498. canyonboy:

I'm curious why the headline isn't "Antarctic Sea Ice At Record High Level"?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2014/09/17/antarctic-sea-ice-expands-to -record-high-level-arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-to-sixth -lowest/

I don't understand why scepticism is such a sin. Let the facts speak.


The difference is the Arctic is not underlain by land as the Antarctic is. Sea ice and land ice are two totally different things. The build up of sea ice in the Antarctic has already gone into the system and will appear as sea level rise. The Arctic is a plain of ice floating on the water and has little to do with sea level rise. The problems up there have to do with ecology and a warming environment which is very fragile.
Quoting 556. oceanspringsMS:



LOL, you really spent time on this. The only conclusion any reasonable person would reach, is that it has been a great year for GOM storms. May it continue for the next 20 years. Why does anyone feel the need to over analysis it, and wish that we would have more storms. By the way, just read a book, The River, that takes Katrina and, makes that storm, a yearly+ event on the Gulf Coast. Great story, don't how I missed it in 2013, when it came out


Not by my definition, bruhhhhh.
polar reversing is the root cause of the artic ice cover.

Look at this.
ntist has said.

Last week, sea ice in the south pole covered more than 20 million square kilometres for the first time since records began.

Dr Jan Lieser from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), based in Hobart, said sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean was expected to peak within the next fortnight.

"This is the third year in a row that sea ice extent in the Antarctic has reached a recorded maximum, and the first time on record that it has exceeded 20 million square kilometres," Dr Lieser said.

Antarctic sea ice hit its all time record on September 13 and has continued to grow ever since.
Quoting 558. trunkmonkey:

polar reversing is the root cause of the artic ice cover.

Look at this.
ntist has said.

Last week, sea ice in the south pole covered more than 20 million square kilometres for the first time since records began.

Dr Jan Lieser from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC), based in Hobart, said sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean was expected to peak within the next fortnight.

"This is the third year in a row that sea ice extent in the Antarctic has reached a recorded maximum, and the first time on record that it has exceeded 20 million square kilometres," Dr Lieser said.

Antarctic sea ice hit its all time record on September 13 and has continued to grow ever since.

Thanks to excess sweet water thru land ice and shelf melt.
560. MahFL
NWS JAX has backed off the "rain event" most of the trough will now stay offshore today.
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

AMZ552-555-261115-
620 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...

AT 612 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS... 7 MILES
EAST OF VERO BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...
THE INDIAN RIVER AND FAR SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK
SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2746 8034 2748 8033 2754 8036 2767 8039
2785 8049 2794 8053 2811 8020 2742 7993
2733 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1018Z 139DEG 12KT 2758 8025

$$

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rachel, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure could develop this weekend or early next
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southeastern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some subsequent
development while the system moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Sep .26, 2014 5:22 am ET
Northeast |
- The region gets to experience a great early fall Friday as a sprawling area of high pressure dominates.
- All leftover showers near coastal southeast New England will diminish quickly this morning as low pressure pulls away.
- High temperatures will be in the 70s across most of the region.
- Dry conditions and pleasant temperatures continue through the upcoming weekend and even into Monday.
- Temps will be warm for late September the next few days going 5-15 degrees above average.
- Rain chances return to the region late Monday and Tuesday as low pressure spreads rain up the East Coast.


Tropical Storm Rachel became the 17th named storm of the 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season Wednesday night, and is now gathering strength off the Mexican Pacific coast.

Wind shear, or changing wind direction and/or speed with height, is still in place, but less so than earlier this week. This will allow Rachel to near hurricane-strength this weekend. Then, the system will track over cooler water and more stable air, inducing further weakening later in the weekend into early next week.

Rachel is forecast to curl north sometime this weekend, then northeast early next week. While Rachel may indeed curl back toward the Baja peninsula next week, it is expected to have weakened to a tropical depression or remnant low if it ever makes it to land.

This is now the third busiest eastern Pacific hurricane season on record, as measured by the number of season-to-date named storms, according to The Weather Channel hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. Only 1992 (19 storms) and 1985 (20 storms) were busier, says Lowry.
Quoting 544. nigel20:



I think he/she was implying that each flash of lightning is random, and not directly associated with God.

God's existence is a different matter. Strong points can be made for or against.
I would like to say that God and science coexisted peacefully for thousands of years. Then came the 20th century.... basically Darwin set up the anti-science party by implying that the Bible was lying by saying the earth and everything on it came to be in much more than 7 days. Some people who believe that a literal interpretation of the Bible means Darwin, and by extension, science, must be wrong, started to go down the anti-science road. Personally I see that view as limiting the possibilities of who/what God IS and can do.... I can accept science as our most effective way of explaining the phenomena around us without feeling that God is threatened, because I understand that God .... IS .... and that our feeble human minds cannot fully understand His composition. The Bible says the fool denies the existence of God, but it also says that we now "see through a glass, darkly", with future clarity based on seeing God in person.

So your beliefs are yours. Science is a man-made construct, like history, designed to help us order our world, and subject to revision as more information is added.

My morning homily.... Enjoy Friday, everyone!
If there is no Fay, the 5 named storms make this the most boring season since 1983, which had 4 named storms, a Fay would get us to six storms to match 1986 with six storms.

Boring, very boring.

But Phoenix is in a slight risk for strong storms.
good morning atlantic seems to be picking up
Yesterday we only picked up .01" (offical) here in Fort Myers.
We're now almost 15" below normal for the year and about 3" below normal for Sept.

I did a little better at the house picking up .31"
So I'm now up to 2.95" for the month in my weather station.

neal youngs new tune who is going to save us? http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/neil-young- drops-three-versions-of-activism-anthem-whos-gonna -stand-up-20140925
Quoting EdMahmoud:
If there is no Fay, the 5 named storms make this the most boring season since 1983, which had 4 named storms, a Fay would get us to six storms to match 1986 with six storms.

Boring, very boring.

But Phoenix is in a slight risk for strong storms.

We might see a few more named storms as upper-level lows become more common in the subtropics towards October, November, and December. But as far as deep tropics stuff, I'd say we're just about done for the season.
574. beell
Quoting 568. BahaHurican:

I would like to say that God and science coexisted peacefully for thousands of years. Then came the 20th century.... basically Darwin set up the anti-science party by implying that the Bible was lying by saying the earth and everything on it came to be in much more than 7 days. Some people who believe that a literal interpretation of the Bible means Darwin, and by extension, science, must be wrong, started to go down the anti-science road. Personally I see that view as limiting the possibilities of who/what God IS and can do.... I can accept science as our most effective way of explaining the phenomena around us without feeling that God is threatened, because I understand that God .... IS .... and that our feeble human minds cannot fully understand His composition. The Bible says the fool denies the existence of God, but it also says that we now "see through a glass, darkly", with future clarity based on seeing God in person.

So your beliefs are yours. Science is a man-made construct, like history, designed to help us order our world, and subject to revision as more information is added.

My morning homily.... Enjoy Friday, everyone!


psst...Galileo, Einstein, etc
575. RJY
Yea but.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2014/09/17/antarctic-sea-ice-expands-to -record-high-level-arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-to-sixth -lowest/
Quoting 573. TropicalAnalystwx13:


We might see a few more named storms as upper-level lows become more common in the subtropics towards October, November, and December. But as far as deep tropics stuff, I'd say we're just about done for the season.


November and December storms are more common in active seasons. NHC calling some high latitude mess a sub-tropical storm is always a possibility. One thing, Dr. Frank's NHC in the 1980s weren't prone to naming high latitude sub-tropical messes. In fact, I think it is only the past 15 years or so sub-tropical storms even got a name, versus a number.
Weak tropical wave/inverted trough moving into Texas today, although it is South of Houston, and the polar air is slow to modify inland, especially with a Northeast wind, so the dryness continues North of I-10.


Rainy morning in S FL
Lol Here in West Palm Beach, FL
Month to date precipitation Actual 7.93 Average 7.08
Year to date precipitation Actual 51.07 Average 47.80

Quoting 571. Sfloridacat5:

Yesterday we only picked up .01" (offical) here in Fort Myers.
We're now almost 15" below normal for the year and about 3" below normal for Sept.

I did a little better at the house picking up .31"
So I'm now up to 2.95" for the month in my weather station.


Good morning guys
Has anyone noticed how high how far N the ITCZ and Monsoon Trof is in the Atlantic

Quoting 571. Sfloridacat5:

Yesterday we only picked up .01" (offical) here in Fort Myers.
We're now almost 15" below normal for the year and about 3" below normal for Sept.

I did a little better at the house picking up .31"
So I'm now up to 2.95" for the month in my weather station.


we've had copious amount of rain in South Venice. For the past week anyway. I'm surprised your rain total is low because it always seems to be raining from Port Char. to points south of that.
Quoting 571. Sfloridacat5:

Yesterday we only picked up .01" (offical) here in Fort Myers.
We're now almost 15" below normal for the year and about 3" below normal for Sept.

I did a little better at the house picking up .31"
So I'm now up to 2.95" for the month in my weather station.




Some nasty thunderstorms rolled through the Tampa area last night after sunset. A long stretch in central and Southeast Hillsborough County got drilled. It just missed my location in Citrus Park, but I could hear the boomers for over an hour. I haven't seen any totals, but I imagine some areas received over 2 inches. I was surprised the TIA reporting station only picked up 0.44.
e.cen florida yesterday had very heavy rains around 1030am-12 and looking east right now we could see a repeat today. at least its not raining all day like it did a few days ago. looking for the atlantic mdr region to start moving again this wkend.
Quoting 579. SFLWeatherman:

Lol Here in West Palm Beach, FL
Month to date precipitation Actual 7.93 Average 7.08
Year to date precipitation Actual 51.07 Average 47.80




51.48" for the year here in Longwood after another dump of rain on the northside of Orlando yesterday afternoon.
Good Morning All. Nice to see all of the comments related to El Nino issues and climatology. Have to talk about something related to weather in light of the current Atlantic down-time this season. I think that this year will be remembered as one of the most productive E-Pac years in terms of their numbers.
Quoting 578. SFLWeatherman:

Rainy morning in S FL



Scattered rain showers between Pinecrest and Down Town MIami this morning. I see we have more moving in from the east.
CFS is blasting the FL Penisula with above normal rainfall all winter & spring coming up. Problem is there is no where for the water to go around here..


Quoting 587. StormTrackerScott:

CFS is blasting the FL Penisula with above normal rainfall all winter & spring coming up. Problem is there is no where for the water to go around here..




That is based on departure from the average. The average is usually very dry in winter and spring. So, above normal does not at all mean flooding rains since normal is very dry to begin with. That assumes this even pans out.
A very rare rainy day.





28mm during last hour. We need 10 times more... at least.
Here is a nice shot of the 10% wave in the Atlantic headed towards unfavorable conditions..........Another bone dry year out there.   This will be the third year in a row with these conditions and actually I believe that it might be the third season in a row with neutral conditions as El Nino was never officially declared this season.
Today we should again see an easterly flow across south Fl.
This should bring storms to the west coast this afternoon.

This increases our chances of heavy rain over here in S.W. Fl.

Quoting tampabaymatt:



That is based on departure from the average. The average is usually very dry in winter and spring. So, above normal does not at all mean flooding rains since normal is very dry to begin with. That assumes this even pans out.


We only average around 6" of rain for the entire Winter here in Fort Myers.


Heavy rain xD
Quoting 588. tampabaymatt:




That is based on departure from the average. The average is usually very dry in winter and spring. So, above normal does not at all mean flooding rains since normal is very dry to begin with. That assumes this even pans out.


El-Nino Winters in FL can be very rainy if not even rainier than a normal wet season. Most of the El-Nino's I remember we've seen anywhere from 5" to 7" on average for December. Normal for December is 2.5" give or take. JB say that this Winter could rival the 1976/1977 winter season in terms of cold across the eastern US. Well see
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Rainy morning in S FL


Ruining what was supposed to be a beach day :(
Quoting 592. Sfloridacat5:



We only average around 6" of rain for the entire Winter here in Fort Myers.


You can probably double that this year atleast.
After a high of only 75 on the 24th and 79 yesterday, I'd say fall is here in Ocala. At my house, it dropped down to 64 yesterday morning and currently it's 68. It's amazing how much cooler it feels now then when it was in the low 70's during the mornings most of the summer! The warmth and moisture are expected to return today with a 70% chance of rain. We have relatively high rain chances until Tuesday then weak high pressure is expected to build in.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=jax &zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=188&map.y=255
A bit early for such a intense system..

Quoting 597. Hazardousweather:

After a high of only 75 on the 24th and 79 yesterday, I'd say fall is here in Ocala. At my house, it dropped down to 64 yesterday morning and currently it's 68. It's amazing how much cooler it feels now then when it was in the low 70's during the mornings most of the summer! The warmth and moisture are expected to return today with a 70% chance of rain. We have relatively high rain chances until Tuesday then weak high pressure is expected to build in.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=jax &zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=188&map.y=255


Here in orlando an hour SE of you its 77 with a dewpoint of 76. Fall hasn't arrived here.
I suspect this Winters weather pattern across the US will be similar to these years below.

Similarity to 2009/10, 2002-2004, 1992-1994, 1968-69.
Front appears to be right over Lake County in between Ocala & Orlando.

Quoting 598. hydrus:

A bit early for such a intense system..




I suspect the GFS may correct itself something similar to the Euro at day 10 while keeping the cold west across the Rockies with a cutoff low over the SE US.
Here is the Villages just south of Ocala by 20 minutes. Very humid there.

26 08:35 Calm 9.00 NA NA 73 72
Wow 78mm (over 3 inches) LAST HOUR and strong thunder now!!!

Quoting 555. bwtranch:


The difference is the Arctic is not underlain by land as the Antarctic is. Sea ice and land ice are two totally different things. The build up of sea ice in the Antarctic has already gone into the system and will appear as sea level rise. The Arctic is a plain of ice floating on the water and has little to do with sea level rise. The problems up there have to do with ecology and a warming environment which is very fragile.


An important difference is that Arctic ice decrease happens in summer when insolation is at its maximum and the change in albedo allows the sea surface to absorb more energy into the system. The Antarctic Maximum occurs in winter when solar insolation is at its lowest. The extra heat absorbed in the Northern Hemisphere is NOT balanced out by the increased albedo in the Southern.



Also, Manabe et al. (1991) Journal of Climate 4, 785 predicted that sea surface temperature would hardly change and sea ice would slightly increase near the Antarctic Continent in response to the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Another thing the models got right .
Quoting 516. nigel20:



A charge has to build up at the surface for "cloud to ground lightning to occur.
Yes, that was the point of Franklin's lightning rods -- they bleed off the static charge continuously so it does not build up to cause a lightning strike. They were very popular in many areas for many years.
Quoting 599. StormTrackerScott:



Here in orlando an hour SE of you its 77 with a dewpoint of 76. Fall hasn't arrived here.


Yeah, that's quite a difference with only about 80 miles of separation. Our dewpoint right now is 66 but that will go up as the day progresses, I'm sure. We've had a lot of moisture relative to temperature the last few days, but no rain. I hope since the tropics are quiet and probably will be the rest of the season, we can get some severe thunderstorms later this fall and winter. I'm originally from Colorado and I didn't really care for the months November through April because of the lack of severe thunderstorm potential. I like the fact that tornado outbreaks are possible here in winter even though they are still quite rare!
Big difference in temperatures across Florida during the winter.

Average coldest temperatures range from 10-18 degree in the far N.W Panhandle to 35-40 degrees down in S.E. Florida.
The Keys should be zone 11. I guess they forgot about the Keys.
I've always believed a monstrous nor'easter, possibly similar to the October "perfect storm" of 1991, will eventually bring more damage to the northeast/New England than any tropical system (including Sandy or LI Express). It's just a matter of time.


Quoting 576. EdMahmoud:



November and December storms are more common in active seasons. NHC calling some high latitude mess a sub-tropical storm is always a possibility. One thing, Dr. Frank's NHC in the 1980s weren't prone to naming high latitude sub-tropical messes. In fact, I think it is only the past 15 years or so sub-tropical storms even got a name, versus a number.
Here it is

For the rest of the country find your zone.



Quoting 610. HaoleboySurfEC:

I've always believed a monstrous nor'easter, possibly similar to the October "perfect storm" of 1991, will eventually bring more damage to the northeast/New England than any tropical system (including Sandy or LI Express). It's just a matter of time.




We came closer than a lot of people realize to that scenario just this past winter.



A couple hundred miles farther west and it'd have been a different story. It would've been the US weather story of the year. Nantucket still had wind gusts over 80mph with this as far away as it was. 955mb pressure made it stronger than the 1993 storm.
Quoting 612. vis0:


http://www.techtimes.com/articles/16533/20140926/ water-on-earth-and-solar-system-is-older-than-our- suns.htm

water one of the most important building blocks to life itself

I just finish a bottle of pure life
Tropical Storm Kammuri is another classic monsoonal cyclone in the West Pacific this season. Its eye is massive.

Globally we are having a really active earthquake day. Eyeballing it all the most active spot looks like Mammoth Lakes, CA with nearly 150 tremors in a little over the last 24hrs.
92mm of rain since 6AM...

But now I have to go... will check later :-)

I like those kind of days.
Quoting 621. Skyepony:

Globally we are having a really active earthquake day. Eyeballing it all the most active spot looks like Mammoth Lakes, CA with nearly 150 tremors in a little over the last 24hrs.
rumblings on the planet
Lots of "near misses" since I was a boy. I maintain that at some point all the conditions will come together and create a stationary or possibly retrograding system that will punish the region for days.


Quoting 617. MAweatherboy1:


We came closer than a lot of people realize to that scenario just this past winter.



A couple hundred miles farther west and it'd have been a different story. It would've been the US weather story of the year. Nantucket still had wind gusts over 80mph with this as far away as it was. 955mb pressure made it stronger than the 1993 storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Kammuri is another classic monsoonal cyclone in the West Pacific this season. Its eye is massive.



Eye is massive because the system is in the process of forming.
The eye will tighten up (shrink) in size as the storm strengthens.

Double Post
Quoting 609. Sfloridacat5:

Big difference in temperatures across Florida during the winter.

Average coldest temperatures range from 10-18 degree in the far N.W Panhandle to 35-40 degrees down in S.E. Florida.
The Keys should be zone 11. I guess they forgot about the Keys.



Before I was a teen. I was always confused why Doral and Homestead seemed to get colder temperatures than my area even though I lived almost an hour north. I had no idea that being further inland is also a factor in how cold it gets.
Quoting ElConando:


Before I was a teen. I was always confused why Doral and Homestead seemed to get colder temperatures than my area even though I lived almost an hour north. I had no idea that being further inland is also a factor in how cold it gets.


Yeah, inland locations are much cooler.

On a cold Winter's night (light winds radiational cooling),we can range from 45 degrees at the beach to upper 20s about 15 miles inland from the coast.

Also, in general, the west coast gets colder at night than the eastcoast. The eastcoast (especially S.E. Florida) keeps an onshore breeze at night that keeps the areas near the beach warmer.
Quoting 621. Skyepony:

Globally we are having a really active earthquake day. Eyeballing it all the most active spot looks like Mammoth Lakes, CA with nearly 150 tremors in a little over the last 24hrs.



is it getting ready too blew up?
Quoting 538. timtlu:
I'll try this again, as apparently this quote is "on topic", but my retort was not, sir/madam moderator.Would you like to elaborate as to how physics and chemistry are responsible for lightning bolts, and not "some bearded adulterer on a mountain", (I will assume you mean God here)?


You would assume incorrectly. The bearded philandering lighting thrower was a reference to Zeus. The crippled angry blacksmith causing volcanic eruptions was a reference to Hephaestus. Of course, I could have used other gods/goddesses here as there have been many created by various cultures to explain unknown phenomena over the rather brief time man has been here but the point remain the same.

As for lightning itself, it is a well studied and understood phenomena. There's nothing magical about it, and certainly nothing that requires some supernatural deity to explain it. A potential difference builds up between two areas until the beakdown voltage of the atmosphere between them is reached and/or exceeded. The resulting spark or bolt we perceive as lightning. We use this effect to our advantage everyday in everything from air purifiers to arc-welders.

Quoting 538. timtlu:
What is it exactly that makes science and the presence of God mutually exclusive?


Nothing, and my post had nothing to do with that. The poster (and several others on here) revel in the science related to tropical storms. This includes things like atmospheric dynamics, oceanography, thermodynamics, etc. Climate science also uses those sciences and more, and yet these same people say that climate science is a bunch of made up conjecture. (These people also complain about how stupid and incompetent our government is, then go on to say that our government can pull of global Illuminati-type conspiracies involving multiple countries and scientific institutions across the planet, but that's a different matter).

Atmospheric physics and the rest of the sciences don't suddenly stop working just because now you're talking about climate instead of tropical storm formation. That's the cognitive dissonance I was addressing.

Quoting 538. timtlu:
Science can explain the process of lightning formation, and the process of hurricane development, but exactly how does it disprove how that process is even allowed to be set into place?


My original post had nothing to do with that. The original poster was trying to say that physics/science changes based on the observer, like somehow the physics that describe weather suddenly stop working when you talk about climate. And instead of providing a mechanism for this improbable scenario, the poster claimed that a deity was responsible. Of course, that makes absolutely no sense.

Quoting 538. timtlu:
Or, as I will try again, do you just resort to childish retorts when you are confronted with a thought too challenging for you to comprehend?


Oh yes, "God did it" really requires a lot of mental effort.

There was nothing childish about by response. The original poster made a claim that the climate is driven/controlled by some magical undetectable deity. I pointed out that if that were the case then why doesn't that also apply to any other phenomena? Why were the ancients Greeks, Romans, Aztecs, etc. wrong when they used their gods/goddesses to explain everything? How are their deities any more or less "correct" in that case?

This isn't the dark ages or the ancient world. "God did it" is a cheap cop-out, especially when existing science can adequately explain the phenomena. Climate science isn't magic, and neither is any of the science it's based upon. It's based on the years of study and observation of world/universe around us.

Quoting 630. Tazmanian:




is it getting ready too blew up?


When the Long Valley Caldera erupted it was one of the largest ever:
Link
Quoting 568. BahaHurican:

I would like to say that God and science coexisted peacefully for thousands of years.
Wait... God and science coexisted peacefully for thousands of years? I disagree with this claim. Christianity rejected investigation into the natural world unless it directly related to Biblical passages and supported them. Those who dared venture from this directive were often shunned from society or, worse, executed for heresy.
Religion never gets along with science, because it is positing supernatural causation whereas science posits natural causation. The former has no repeatable causal power and is therefore utterly and completely useless in forwarding our understanding of the universe.
Quoting 581. KeyWestwx:

we've had copious amount of rain in South Venice. For the past week anyway. I'm surprised your rain total is low because it always seems to be raining from Port Char. to points south of that.


Here is a fine resource for water in south Florida.. there are links everywhere, just make sure you pay attention to the dates so you know how current the info is.

Go Hydrology
Quoting 623. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

rumblings on the planet
Dont tell me.....Gumby tripped and accidentally broke the Sixth Seal....hence all the quakes and such....Sarcasm in the morning from yours truly..:)
2 years ago i had to move 15 minutes inland and at night we get down into the upper 60s like every night and during the winter we can get down into the 20's there was one night last year where i was driving only 15 minutes to my house from my grandma's house it went from 55 down to 42 and I had the windows down Lol it was nice when it was 55! :P
Quoting 628. ElConando:



Before I was a teen. I was always confused why Doral and Homestead seemed to get colder temperatures than my area even though I lived almost an hour north. I had no idea that being further inland is also a factor in how cold it gets.
Quoting 621. Skyepony:

Globally we are having a really active earthquake day. Eyeballing it all the most active spot looks like Mammoth Lakes, CA with nearly 150 tremors in a little over the last 24hrs.


they are all located just north of the Monmoth Lake Airport .. all in the 2.5 to 2.9 range .. a large swarm ..
The religion and science debate, whilst fascinating in its own right, probably doesn't belong on this blog. Let's try to be at least a little better than a Fox News article comment section.
Quoting 617. MAweatherboy1:

We came closer than a lot of people realize to that scenario just this past winter.



A couple hundred miles farther west and it'd have been a different story. It would've been the US weather story of the year. Nantucket still had wind gusts over 80mph with this as far away as it was. 955mb pressure made it stronger than the 1993 storm.


Great snow of 1717. 4 to 7 feet from Virginia to Maine on top of heavy existing snowpack. Drifts to 50 feet. Single story houses buried past the chimney tops. 95% of the deer population died. Apple orchards buried past the tree tops.
Quoting 588. tampabaymatt:




That is based on departure from the average. The average is usually very dry in winter and spring. So, above normal does not at all mean flooding rains since normal is very dry to begin with. That assumes this even pans out.


Winters aren't always very dry, I suspect that you are probably thinking recently because the last 3-4 years were either La Nina or Neutral leaning La Nina with obvious La Nina impacts on Florida. Winters in Central Florida have been substantially below average the last 3-4 years. However, while its true that winter is noticeably drier on average than the summer rainy rainy season, it isn't always very dry. For example, our dry season is still rainier on average than the rainy season in the southwest.

We just get mid latitude cyclones during the dry season like the rest of the mid-latitude zones, most places north of the Gulf Coast and Florida don't have rainfall average in any given month that is higher than 2.5-4 inches, which is the same as a dry season month for us.

Now, we know that areas north of the Gulf Coast and Florida are not always dry, they can get heavy rains too, its just they don't have a reliable rainy season, heavy rain is very variable and comes randomly.

The same goes for Florida in the dry season, rainy typically falls in the form of cold fronts in the 0.50 inch range once or twice a week, however, rainfall records show that we do sometimes get very heavy rain events in the dry season too. One of the Tampa Bay areas worst flooding rain events occurred several years back in February, 8-12 inches of rain in 3-5 hours. That's just one example, but there are others. In April 2011 parts of the Tampa Bay area had anywhere from 4 up to 9 inches of rain and severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

So no, we can get flooding rains outside of the rainy season, its not as uncommon as you might think, El Nino winters are notorious for producing some of the worst flooding that has occurred in Florida, its not uncommon for an El Nino winter to average 5-8 inches of rain for each winter month, but rain amounts even heavier sometimes happen.
The Great Blizzard of 1888 in NYC.
Tropical Storm Kammur is big in size
Quoting 641. Sfloridacat5:

The Great Blizzard of 1888 in NYC.

This is photoshoped obviously...
Quoting 632. cytochromeC:



When the Long Valley Caldera erupted it was one of the largest ever:
Link


that led me to learn about a caldera I was unfamiliar with, thanks!
Quoting 643. washingtonian115:

This is photoshoped obviously...
no that's real
The "Dry Season" varies greatly across the state of Florida.
Dec - March (4 months) averages around 8" in Fort Myers.
Dec - March (4 months) average around 18" in Tallahassee

So it's really the southern half of Florida that has an actual "Dry Season."

City
Fort Myers
State
Florida

Average Annual Precipitation
55.93 inches


January
1.94 inches

February
2.15 inches

March
2.88 inches

April
2.18 inches

May
2.65 inches

June
10.09 inches

July
9.04 inches

August
10.14 inches

September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71
Quoting 645. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no that's real
Sarcasm.
Quoting 637. whitewabit:



they are all located just north of the Monmoth Lake Airport .. all in the 2.5 to 2.9 range .. a large swarm ..


Isn't there a dormant volcano in that region, and hasn't there been more volcanic activity in the "ring of fire" in recent years? Just curious if this will be something to watch, like the Mt. St. Helens thing again...or not.
Quoting 633. SouthTampa:

Wait... God and science coexisted peacefully for thousands of years? I disagree with this claim. Christianity rejected investigation into the natural world unless it directly related to Biblical passages and supported them. Those who dared venture from this directive were often shunned from society or, worse, executed for heresy.
Religion never gets along with science, because it is positing supernatural causation whereas science posits natural causation. The former has no repeatable causal power and is therefore utterly and completely useless in forwarding our understanding of the universe.


I disagree with this disagreeing. :)
I actually disagree with both of you, haha.
However, I will say this: trying to say what "Christianity" has done in a blanket statement is like saying all muslims are Al Quaida terrorists, which simply isn't true. Also, it ignores the fact that govt.'s & political leaders can, have, and often do USE religion (including Christianity) to try to justify or gain support or acceptance for their own policies, actions &/or plans.

Also, to say a "Christian" did something and so blame it on Christianity is like saying all muslims are terrorists and that if ISIS beheads someone it is somehow indicative of what all Islamic thought is like.

Now, playing further, I will look into the idea - the farce - that God and science cannot coexist. I think anyone looking into that honestly would have to say otherwise, as lots of things in biblical texts can go right along with scientific thought, and vice versa, otherwise there would not have been so very many scientists who were Christians in both times past and in modern times. As for whether God is a "repeatable causal power" cannot be determined by a lessor species as if God were at our dictates any more than monkeys, rats and dogs in science cages can be repeating and causing the actions of those scientists having power over them. There are, however, things in biblical times that were repeated, including WEATHER and other natural phenomena.
OMG, whatever happened to discussing TROPICAL weather??? 2 days now in a row that I have checked in, and discussions going on about anything BUT tropical weather. Gotta find a new blog...sigh....
Quoting 651. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Coming to Toronto this year?

Quoting 655. CitikatzSouthFL:

OMG, whatever happened to discussing TROPICAL weather??? 2 days now in a row that I have checked in, and discussions going on about anything BUT tropical weather. Gotta find a new blog...sigh....
there is no tropical weather to speak of
Here's Tallahasee's annual rainfall averages.

Tallahaee sees less rain in the summer and more rain in the winter than Southern Florida locations.
Much smaller difference in precipitation (dry season vs. wet season)

Tallahassee, Florida
59.23 inches

January 4.34
February 4.85
March 5.94
April 3.06
May 3.47
June 7.73
July 7.17
August 7.35
September 4.69
October 3.23
November 3.50
December 3.90

Another Mid-October Hurricane from the past.
Quoting 656. Dakster:



Coming to Toronto this year?


never know hope not that will be a city killer for sure in our time
KAMMURI 17W T3.5/4.0 26/1432Z West Pacific
Unnamed 99W T1.0/1.0 26/1432Z West Pacific
RACHEL 18E T2.0/2.0 26/1200Z East Pacific
Unnamed 96L T1.0/1.0 26/1145Z Atlantic
Unnamed 91S T1.0/1.0 26/1130Z Southwest Indian
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is no tropical weather to speak of


Where's the CMC ghost systems when you need them.
That blobulation off the Texas coast looks somewhat "determined".
Of course the 1972 Iran blizzard was much worse with some locations reporting 26 feet of snow in 6 days. Entire village were wiped out. It killed 4,000+ people, mostly due to suffocation (snow fell in feet burying homes while people slept). Remains by far the dealiest blizzard ever recorded.

Unfourtunately, simple statistics dictate that this will happen again, AGW or not. In an increasingly populated world, 4,000 dead would be a drop in the bucket.
Quoting 663. WalkingInTheSun:

That blobulation off the Texas coast looks somewhat "determined".
it will disappear like yesterday as soon as the sun goes down
TXPQ29 KNES 261524
TCSWNP

A. 17W (KAMMURI)

B. 26/1432Z

C. 23.4N

D. 145.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 3.5 IS BASED ON 1.0 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 3.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
TXPQ21 KNES 261537
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 26/1432Z

C. 5.7N

D. 165.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON CSC. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2
BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
TXPZ26 KNES 261227
TCSENP

A. 18E (RACHEL)

B. 26/1200Z

C. 17.5N

D. 113.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI

H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.0 IS BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY
TIGHLY DEFINED LL CIRCULAR CLOUD LINES, AND THE CENTER NEAR TO A SMALL
AREA (LT 90NM) OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET AND PT ARE 2.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/0608Z 17.5N 112.6W TMI


...RAMIREZ
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96L)

B. 26/1145Z

C. 12.3N

D. 43.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/S1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 WEAK BANDING. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
TXXS21 KNES 261147
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

B. 26/1130Z

C. 7.6S

D. 65.4E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY
CIRCULAR LL CLOUD LINES, AND A CENTER LOCATED LT 75 NM FROM A VERY SMALL
AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
Quoting 656. Dakster:



Coming to Toronto this year?




Or the DC metro area.
A lot of action out over the water (both Atlantic and GOM).
Quoting 665. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will disappear like yesterday as soon as the sun goes down


blob killer...
I am sure there will be more blobs still a couple of months to go
Quoting 568. BahaHurican:

I would like to say that God and science coexisted peacefully for thousands of years. Then came the 20th century.... basically Darwin set up the anti-science party by implying that the Bible was lying by saying the earth and everything on it came to be in much more than 7 days. Some people who believe that a literal interpretation of the Bible means Darwin, and by extension, science, must be wrong, started to go down the anti-science road. Personally I see that view as limiting the possibilities.........br>



(Ahem),...I can understand the difficulty with such a seeming discrepancy. Many biblical discrepancies can be cured by better understanding of translation from one totally different language into English or another language which lacks sufficient words, etc. to properly give a pure, word-for-word translation. Not sure about this one.

However, I know of someone who thinks there could be a scientific explanation. We know there have been multiple large hits on earth by space debri in the past. Is it possible for something very large to change the earth's rotational time-period, days, in time-span via a large &/or glancing blow in the very distant past? I think it is possible and could explain a difference in how both the bible and science could be correct.
Quoting 640. Jedkins01:



Winters aren't always very dry, I suspect that you are probably thinking recently because the last 3-4 years were either La Nina or Neutral leaning La Nina with obvious La Nina impacts on Florida. Winters in Central Florida have been substantially below average the last 3-4 years. However, while its true that winter is noticeably drier on average than the summer rainy rainy season, it isn't always very dry. For example, our dry season is still rainier on average than the rainy season in the southwest.

We just get mid latitude cyclones during the dry season like the rest of the mid-latitude zones, most places north of the Gulf Coast and Florida don't have rainfall average in any given month that is higher than 2.5-4 inches, which is the same as a dry season month for us.

Now, we know that areas north of the Gulf Coast and Florida are not always dry, they can get heavy rains too, its just they don't have a reliable rainy season, heavy rain is very variable and comes randomly.

The same goes for Florida in the dry season, rainy typically falls in the form of cold fronts in the 0.50 inch range once or twice a week, however, rainfall records show that we do sometimes get very heavy rain events in the dry season too. One of the Tampa Bay areas worst flooding rain events occurred several years back in February, 8-12 inches of rain in 3-5 hours. That's just one example, but there are others. In April 2011 parts of the Tampa Bay area had anywhere from 4 up to 9 inches of rain and severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

So no, we can get flooding rains outside of the rainy season, its not as uncommon as you might think, El Nino winters are notorious for producing some of the worst flooding that has occurred in Florida, its not uncommon for an El Nino winter to average 5-8 inches of rain for each winter month, but rain amounts even heavier sometimes happen.


I remember mid spring as reliably dry in Tallahassee but my period of record was only 1985, 1986, and 1987 and 1986 had an exceptional spring/summer Southeast U.S. drought.

Once the southern branch of the jet moves north or disappears, that pretty much cuts off the midlatitude cyclone source and convection doesn't get going until late May or early June. Gross oversimplification true but I've even noticed it in the DC metro area in May and early June some years. (Other years we get cutoffs, cyclones, coastals, fronts and plenty of rain at that time of year). I have not rigorously separated that out from possible long anticylonic periods which also cut off our rain and are typical everywhere in the eastern half of the CONUS from time to time. It's possible I'm just wrong and blowing smoke (at that time of year pollen and dust also)

And some years, (like this one), the southern stream stays active through mid May.
Quoting 666. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The blob near the "Big Bend" of West Texas seems to be feeding EPAC moisture to the blob off the Texas coast.
Quoting 655. CitikatzSouthFL:

OMG, whatever happened to discussing TROPICAL weather??? 2 days now in a row that I have checked in, and discussions going on about anything BUT tropical weather. Gotta find a new blog...sigh....

Guess we sound like normal people sometimes....Not too much going on except George Clooney's good looks
Quoting 675. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am sure there will be more blobs still a couple of months to go

LOL.....I'm happy here in south Florida "not" talkin' bout a storm Keeper
Rachel = more flooding for Arizona and New Mexico.
USGA site is showing over 70 earthquakes near Manmouth Lake, California in the last 12 hours.
Quoting 682. defuniak30:

USGA site is showing over 70 earthquakes near Manmouth Lake, California in the last 12 hours.
Hmmm....
Quoting 654. WalkingInTheSun:



, playing further, I will look into the idea - the farce - that God and science cannot coexist. I think anyone looking into that honestly would have to say otherwise, as lots of things in biblical texts can go right along with scientific thought, and vice versa, otherwise there would not have been so very many scientists who were Christians in both times past and in modern times.

I agree & think this is what really dismantled the effectiveness of the show Cosmos. I don't know a Christian that let their kids watch that again after the episode that pointed out one needed to disbelieve their religion to understand how humans are contributing to global warming.
There likely will be lots of flooding issues this afternoon across Orlando as storms are firing and moving very slow.

6.43" so far this week in Longwood atleast at my location some areas have seen near double this just a few miles east of me.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
There likely will be lots of flooding issues this afternoon across Orlando as storms are firing and moving very slow.



I've actually got some rain forming to my S.E. and moving towards my location.

I picked up .31" yesterday at the house, but our offical reporting station (Page Field) didn't receive any rain.
Quoting 684. Skyepony:


I agree & think this is what really dismantled the effectiveness of the show Cosmos. I don't know a Christian that let their kids watch that again after the episode that pointed out one needed to disbelieve their religion to understand how humans are contributing to global warming.
The church doctrine has been rocked by factual science before. The Sun is really in the middle and such..It more than likely will happen again...Probably at some tragic cost to human life....I wonder how 96L is doing.?..:)
Quoting 660. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

never know hope not that will be a city killer for sure in our time


And here that would be average snowfall...
Thoughts of this winter anyone. Go to my blog for more.
Quoting 688. Sfloridacat5:



I've actually got some rain forming to my S.E. and moving towards my location.

I picked up .31" yesterday at the house, but our offical reporting station (Page Field) didn't receive any rain.



HRRR model is hammering the west coast of FL later with up to 5" in some areas. Also areas of 5" or more from Orlando to Melbourne tonight. So this will not be just a day event.
Quoting 683. washingtonian115:

Hmmm....


Then the lake may be more than just a man's mouth shortly. Possibly the whole body.... I wonder if that is the other side of the plate that slipped yesterday...
Quoting 693. Dakster:



Then the lake may be more than just a man's mouth shortly. Possibly the whole body.... I wonder if that is the other side of the plate that slipped yesterday...
Something is fishy or maybe it's just a release of stress.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1045 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA HAS RESULTED IN
SATURATED GROUNDS ALONG WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ON AREA
PONDS...LAKES...AND STREAMS. LOCAL ROADWAYS AND HIGHWAYS ARE
THREATENED BY FLOODING FROM ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE AREAS OF MOST CONCERN EXTENDS FROM FORT MEADE TO
FROSTPROOF...DOWN TO SEBRING...ARCHBOLD...AND OVER TO WAUCHULA.

FLZ052-056-057-270400-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FF.A.0001.140926T1500Z-140927T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...WAUCHULA...
SEBRING...AVON PARK
1045 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND POLK.


* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* SATURATED GROUNDS WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED.

* ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY FLOODED WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. REMEMBER...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVI
96L morning ASCAT pass..looked a little better lastnight..
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
OMG, whatever happened to discussing TROPICAL weather??? 2 days now in a row that I have checked in, and discussions going on about anything BUT tropical weather. Gotta find a new blog...sigh....


You're not going to find a new blog that's talking about tropical weather right now, because there are no tropical cyclones active in the Atlantic nor are any of the models predicting anything in the next 10 days (there are, however, two tropical storms in the Pacific, nether of which will get very strong or are a threat to land). This hurricane season is only at five named storms, the most inactive since 1997, so there's not much to discuss and likely won't be much for the rest of the season.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1252 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TITUSVILLE...SCOTTSMOOR...MIMS...

SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER PARK...WEDGEFIELD...ORLANDO
OAK RIDGE...GOLDENROD...CONWAY...COLLEGE PARK...CHRISTMAS...
BITHLO...BAY LAKE...AZALEA PARK...AVALON PARK...

NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SAINT CLOUD...NARCOOSSEE...
KISSIMMEE...INTERCESSION CITY...EAST LAKE TOHO...CELEBRATION...

EASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...SANFORD...OVIEDO...
GENEVA...CHULUOTA...

SOUTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILL...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...LAKE
HELEN...EDGEWATER...DELTONA...


* UNTIL 215 PM EDT.

* AT 1247 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW
MOVING SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA. RADAR INDICATES THAT UP TO A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LAST HOUR...AND RAINFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF.


THE ONSET OF FLOODING OF ROADS...AND URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL BE MORE RAPID THAN USUAL...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN
SINCE EARLY IN THE WEEK.
1888?

Quoting 648. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
That being said in regards to Atlantic activity, the GFS has been showing in the long run (10 days from now) a trough dipping down into the southeastern United States, perhaps bringing some cooler weather for the sunshine state too. There's a chance that trough could end up getting a piece of energy split off in the SW Caribbean, so I'd watch out for possible tropical cyclogenesis there in the middle of October. Even inactive hurricane seasons can produce a surprise hurricane there, i.e., Ida in 2009.
Quoting 513. chimera245:



It was a headline, only not for the skeptics. That's probably why it's not all over the Murdoch press.

Try This Story or this more technical piece.

One of the theories for the increase is due to the sheer volume of fresh water melting from the surface of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is pooling at the surface around the continent. Fresher water does this (it's much less dense), and it also has a much higher freezing point - fresh water freezes on or about 0 while normal sea-water is a couple of degrees lower.

Why is there so much more meltwater there, well that's the real story.

The truth really is out there.



Interesting hypothesis. Therefore there should be a corresponding decrease in salinity over time in the areas of increasing Antarctic ice and a decrease in ice where there is no change in salinity. Any field data available?

Intuitively, the hypothesis requires a massive amount of fresh water at the surface unmixed hundreds of miles from shore. Seems unlikely.
Happened in March after a relatively warm winter. Temps in low single digits in NYC in March during and immediately after the storm. Must have been one hellish outbreak of polar air.

Quoting 643. washingtonian115:

This is photoshoped obviously...
Quoting 654. WalkingInTheSun:



I disagree with this disagreeing. :)
I actually disagree with both of you, haha.
However, I will say this: trying to say what "Christianity" has done in a blanket statement is like saying all muslims are Al Quaida terrorists, which simply isn't true. Also, it ignores the fact that govt.'s & political leaders can, have, and often do USE religion (including Christianity) to try to justify or gain support or acceptance for their own policies, actions &/or plans.

Also, to say a "Christian" did something and so blame it on Christianity is like saying all muslims are terrorists and that if ISIS beheads someone it is somehow indicative of what all Islamic thought is like.

Now, playing further, I will look into the idea - the farce - that God and science cannot coexist. I think anyone looking into that honestly would have to say otherwise, as lots of things in biblical texts can go right along with scientific thought, and vice versa, otherwise there would not have been so very many scientists who were Christians in both times past and in modern times. As for whether God is a "repeatable causal power" cannot be determined by a lessor species as if God were at our dictates any more than monkeys, rats and dogs in science cages can be repeating and causing the actions of those scientists having power over them. There are, however, things in biblical times that were repeated, including WEATHER and other natural phenomena.
Thanks for an honest answer. However, I still fail to see how a supernatural being is a causal agent. (Anecdotes from an ancient and oft-translated book do not amount to empirical evidence. ) It is not what we do to test such a theory, it's that such a theory is un-testable, as you claim. Whether the posited supernatural being is somehow behind a phenomena, yet undetectable does not help us understand the phenomena, therefore the "will" of said being is non-causal, at least to the human eye.

With respect to the actions of a religious person versus the religion, there is a pattern of behavior that points to common teachings. The authority of the actions of people who carry out these acts is explicitly given in those books. Unfortunately, these teachings often shun reason ("Reason is a whore, the greatest enemy that faith has" - Martin Luther); embrace cruelty ("The saints will rejoice in the punishment of the damned." - St. Thomas Aquinas); promote egotism through the belief that a deity is immensely involved with and concerned with minor aspects of one's life; and serves as a divisive mechanism among mankind ("the chosen people") - which promotes dominion over other humans (slavery, mysogny).

Often times people who are in contradiction with a religious world view are put to death (Bruno). Instead of meeting the challenge with kindness and evidence, the religious often brutalize and torment. It's sickening.
Quoting 694. washingtonian115:

Something is fishy or maybe it's just a release of stress.


Gas? Oh wait, no, that was me after brocolli last night... sorry...
Quoting 704. SouthTampa:

Thanks for an honest answer. However, I still fail to see ........


The weather is nice.

As for failing to see, that could be in the eye of the beholder, couldn't it?
Who knows all things? Who has more than a snippet of what has transpired over thousands of years of humanity, and does what little we ourselves know trump what others knew and experienced simply because we didn't experience it? No. Perhaps if one of us experienced a sea or river dividing by unseen hand or rain ending or starting again in response to prayers to an unseen God -- though more than 70 did see Him (Exodus 24:9-11, the bible) -- then, maybe we would be more willing to ascribe the same credibility to their experiences as we do to our own in our day,...maybe.

I actually do know of someone who has prayed about severe weather when a big storm was heading towards a building with children in it that had lots of glass windows. Later, looking at the radar loop, it showed the storm split in half and both halves (still severe) going off on one side and the other. However, this cannot be proven. It was simply experienced, and how could it be; yet, I personally know that it happened, as I witnessed and saw the radar loop, amazing as it was. To say otherwise would make me a liar, but I can understand it is difficult to believe and I might confess it could have been laughable for myself to believe such a thing to happen if this had been during my earlier years in life. It just goes to show we don't know as much as we like to think. Whether we can blame God for everything that goes wrong in weather or otherwise is a place I cannot tread, now. Even people place animals in cages and watch insects without intervening, right?
Walking - Weather is awesome out. It was a crisp 30F out this morning, Frost on the ground, a little bit on the vehicles. Daughter still wanted to walk to school - so I walked her to school. Life is good.

Only funny thing is that she brings a water bottle with her to school. Filled up with ice and water, by the time we got to school it was pretty much frozen solid.
Quoting 706. WalkingInTheSun:



The weather is nice.

As for failing to see, that could be in the eye of the beholder, couldn't it?
Who knows all things? Who has more than a snippet of what has transpired over thousands of years of humanity, and does what little we ourselves know trump what others knew and experienced simply because we didn't experience it? No. Perhaps if one of us experienced a sea or river dividing by unseen hand or rain ending or starting again in response to prayers to an unseen God -- though more than 70 did see Him (Exodus 24:9-11, the bible) -- then, maybe we would be more willing to ascribe the same credibility to their experiences as we do to our own in our day,...maybe.

I actually do know of someone who has prayed about severe weather when a big storm was heading towards a building with children in it that had lots of glass windows. Later, looking at the radar loop, it showed the storm split in half and both halves (still severe) going off on one side and the other. However, this cannot be proven. It was simply experienced, and how could it be; yet, I personally know that it happened, as I witnessed and saw the radar loop, amazing as it was. To say otherwise would make me a liar, but I can understand it is difficult to believe and I might confess it could have been laughable for myself to believe such a thing to happen if this had been during my earlier years in life. It just goes to show we don't know as much as we like to think. Whether we can blame God for everything that goes wrong in weather or otherwise is a place I cannot tread, now. Even people place animals in cages and watch insects without intervening, right?
What about all those who have prayed and died? This is an absolute failure of logic. Prayer or the supernatural does not cause people to be "saved".