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Largest-Ever Meeting of World Leaders on Climate Change Concludes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2014

Yesterday's Climate Summit 2014 in New York City brought together the largest-ever meeting of world leaders on climate change, with more than 125 world leaders and top government officials in attendance. The meeting, called together by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon with the theme of "Catalyzing Action", sought to challenge leaders to announce bold actions to significantly reduce CO2 emissions, strengthen climate resilience, and mobilize political will for a meaningful legal agreement to be negotiated in Paris in December 2015. “We need to take action now to limit global temperature rise,” said the secretary-general, in opening the session. “We need all hands on deck to ride out this storm.” Plenty of bold promises were indeed made at the meeting, giving hope that next year's climate summit will succeed in negotiating a treaty that will slow down the current record-setting rate of rise in global CO2 emissions. I present below a few of the notable actions and promises made at yesterday's summit and in the days leading up to the event.


Figure 1. U.S. President Barack Obama speaks at the United Nations Climate Summit on September 23, 2014 in New York City. (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

Obama promises new U.S. efforts
President Obama promised that in early 2015, the U.S. would announce new, ambitious goals for emissions of greenhouse gases for the post-2020 period. He also announced plans to have federal agencies begin factoring climate resilience into international development programs and investments, to help vulnerable nations better prepare for weather-related disasters, and better plan for long-term threats like steadily rising seas. He opened his speech with this: "The climate is changing faster than our efforts to address it. The alarm bells keep ringing. Our citizens keep marching. We cannot pretend we do not hear them. We have to answer the call. We know what we have to do to avoid irreparable harm. We have to cut carbon pollution in our own countries to prevent the worst effects of climate change. We have to adapt to the impacts that, unfortunately, we can no longer avoid. And we have to work together as a global community to tackle this global threat before it is too late." 


Figure 2. Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli speaks at the United Nations Climate Summit on September 23, 2014 in New York City. (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

China promises to slow down emissions
President Xi Jinping chose not to attend the meeting, and sent Zhang Gaoli, his vice premier, to address the UN. Zhang said that China, the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, would slow the rise of its emissions and reach a peak "as soon as possible." Zhang said China will reveal its goals for reducing emissions for the post-2020 period in early 2015, just as the U.S. promised. As analyzed in detail by Mashable's Andrew Freedman, "the mere mention of a peak in China's carbon dioxide emissions was new and ambitious, considering how quickly the Chinese economy has grown in recent years and how fast emissions have risen as well. During the past decade, for example, China saw about 10% per year increases in carbon dioxide emissions, although that slowed in 2013."

New York City to cut CO2 emissions 80% by 2050
On Saturday, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio unveiled a plan to reduce the city’s emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases by 80 percent over the next four decades. Mayor de Blasio called for “urgent, daring action” in his remarks at the summit, and said he expected to cooperate with leaders of other cities and countries.

Rockefeller Foundation announces plans to divest from fossil fuel companies
The heirs to the Rockefeller oil fortune announced on Sunday that the $860 million philanthropic organization would sell all their assets tied to fossil fuel companies. Divestment from fossil fuel investments has increased significantly in recent years, with 656 individuals and 181 institutions, including philanthropies, religious organizations, pension funds and local governments, divesting assets worth more than $50 billion from portfolios, according to Arabella Advisors, an investment consulting firm.

The World Resources Institute has a more detailed analysis of the outcomes from the U.N. Climate Summit, as does carbonbrief.org.

Quiet in the tropics
The tropics are unusually quiet for September, with no tropical cyclones active. In the Atlantic, none of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis shows anything developing over the next five days. A tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa on Friday may be something to watch for development late next week in the Caribbean, the GFS model is predicting, but it is too early to assign a probability of such an event occurring. Dry air will interfere with development of this wave as it crosses between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. In the Eastern Pacific, a well-organized tropical disturbance (99E) a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico was given 5-day odds of development of 90% by NHC in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Our reliable computer models keep 99E well offshore of the coast of Mexico this week as the storm heads west-northwest.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So the observed annual temperature of the Earth's surface is approximately 288 K or 15 °C.

Using the Planetary Energy Balance Equation:

S(1-a)/4+εσT1^4+(1-ε)εσ T2^4+(1-ε)(1-ε)ε σ T3^4= σTs^4

with an albedo (alpha a) = 0.2, an emissivity (episilon ε) = 0.355, a Solar Constant = 1.94,
and Stefan-Boltzman Constant = 8.132x10^-11 cal cm-2 oK-4 min-1

The emissivity of the Earth' atmosphere is due to a number of different gases and clouds. Around 50% of the emissivity is due to water vapor, around 25% is due to clouds, around 20% is due to carbon dioxide, and the remaining 5% due to a number of different gases such as methane.

For the carbon dioxide, the mixing ratio has increased from around 300 parts per million to around 400 parts per million during the past 100 years (an increase of 33%). Multiple the CO2 component of emissivity you just calculated by .33 to get the increase in the Earth's emissivity due to the increase in CO2. Add the increased emissivity to the original emissivity in your spreadsheet to determine how much the Earth's surface should have warmed with the observed increase in Carbon Dioxide. What was your original emissivity? What was your increased emissivity due to these calculations? What was your computed increase in surface temperature due to the increased emissivity? The observed increase in the Earth's temperature during the past 100 years has been around 1 degree C. Compare your computed increase in temperature with the observed increase in temperature and discuss what may be causing the differences.

CO2 component of emissivity: 0.355 x 0.2 = 0.071

Increase in Earth's emissivity due to increase in CO2: 0.071 X 0.33 = 0.02343

Theoretical Earth surface temperature due to increase in CO2: 0.02343 + 0.355 = 0.37843

Original emissivity: 0.355

The computed increase in surface temperature due to the increased emissivity is 290 K which is a 2 K difference from the observed annual surface temperature of the Earth which is 288 K and is a 1 K increase in the observed increase in Earth's temperature during the past 100 years which indicates that there are more factors than CO2 causing an increase in Earth's surface temperature.

If the atmospheric CO2 contintues to increase to double the current amount, what would be the resultant temperature rise of the Earth's surface?

To calculate this, first take your emissivity from question 3 and multiple it by .2 (% of greenhouse gas emissivity caused by CO2), and then add that amount to your original emissivity. Then compute the new temperature of the surface.

New emissivity by doubling CO2 concentrations: 0.355 x 0.2 + 0.355 = 0.426

New Earth Surface Temperature by doubling CO2 concentrations: 295 K

Quoting 491. nigel20:



Hi Gro! How have you been?


Good evening, Nigel. I am doing well, thank you. It's been quite hot.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
QueensWreath, that's wrong. Doubling CO2 concentrations has the same effect each time. As CO2 increases, the additional warming from each unit, such as a part per million, decreases.


Ok but that is not what I understand as fact. In a vacuum experiment yes. But on earth in a dynamic environment? NOT SO MUCH!
Quoting 501. GTstormChaserCaleb:

So the observed annual temperature of the Earth's surface is approximately 288 K or 15 °C.

Using the Planetary Energy Balance Equation:

S(1-a)/4+εσT1^4+(1-ε)εσ T2^4+(1-ε)(1- )ε σ T3^4= σTs^4

with an albedo (alpha a) = 0.2, an emissivity (episilon ε) = 0.355, a Solar Constant = 1.94,
and Stefan-Boltzman Constant = 8.132x10^-11 cal cm-2 oK-4 min-1

The emissivity of the Earth' atmosphere is due to a number of different gases and clouds. Around 50% of the emissivity is due to water vapor, around 25% is due to clouds, around 20% is due to carbon dioxide, and the remaining 5% due to a number of different gases such as methane.

For the carbon dioxide, the mixing ratio has increased from around 300 parts per million to around 400 parts per million during the past 100 years (an increase of 33%). Multiple the CO2 component of emissivity you just calculated by .33 to get the increase in the Earth's emissivity due to the increase in CO2. Add the increased emissivity to the original emissivity in your spreadsheet to determine how much the Earth's surface should have warmed with the observed increase in Carbon Dioxide. What was your original emissivity? What was your increased emissivity due to these calculations? What was your computed increase in surface temperature due to the increased emissivity? The observed increase in the Earth's temperature during the past 100 years has been around 1 degree C. Compare your computed increase in temperature with the observed increase in temperature and discuss what may be causing the differences.

CO2 component of emissivity: 0.355 x 0.2 = 0.071

Increase in Earth's emissivity due to increase in CO2: 0.071 X 0.33 = 0.02343

Theoretical Earth surface temperature due to increase in CO2: 0.02343 + 0.355 = 0.37843

Original emissivity: 0.355

The computed increase in surface temperature due to the increased emissivity is 290 K which is a 2 K difference from the observed annual surface temperature of the Earth which is 288 K and is a 1 K increase in the observed increase in Earth's temperature during the past 100 years which indicates that there are more factors than CO2 causing an increase in Earth's surface temperature.

If the atmospheric CO2 contintues to increase to double the current amount, what would be the resultant temperature rise of the Earth's surface?

To calculate this, first take your emissivity from question 3 and multiple it by .2 (% of greenhouse gas emissivity caused by CO2), and then add that amount to your original emissivity. Then compute the new temperature of the surface.

New emissivity by doubling CO2 concentrations: 0.355 x 0.2 + 0.355 = 0.426

New Earth Surface Temperature by doubling CO2 concentrations: 295 K




Where did you get this from?
7 K or 7 C increase in Earth's surface temperature, so keep on doubling that CO2 and see what happens.
Quoting 500. sar2401:

I've always thought there was a good chance WKC was a terrorist, given his experience with the British Marines, but I try to keep my mouth shut about that while the CIA investigation is still ongoing...:-)


Speaking of, how many storms is the UKMC model projecting for the Caymans this week? :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
FWIW:



Edouard was pretty awesome to track. Best hurricane since Michael in the Atlantic.
Your articles were several years old, so 'recent' is debatable. If you want to start throwing around links I can as well. I don't really even know why you are getting on my case. We are having an affect on the environment, we just don't know enough to know to what degree. But both sides seem to only see this in the prism of the last hundred years or less. That was my main point. And here is a basic quick read for ice ages.

From: http://climap.net/ice-age

A period of time with temperatures low enough for ice sheets to form and periodically expand.

The term "ice age" is commonly used about periods of extensive ice expansion. However, it is more accurately defined as a period characterized by the presence of large ice sheets. Which means that we are presently still living in an ice age, since ice sheets still exist in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Within an ice age there are periods of extra cold climate called glacials. During these periods the glaciers and ice sheets expand extensively, and cover a large part of the Earth's surface. The sea level drops as water is stored in the ice sheets, and the circulation in the oceans is probably disturbed.

Between these cold periods, glacials, are warmer periods, interglacials, where the ice retreats. The most recent glacial period ended about 11,000 years ago. This is often referred to as the last "ice age". Since then we have been living in an interglacial period.

The Earth has experienced several ice ages, and the latest started about 2 million years ago. The Earth is free of ice in between ice ages.

There are several possible causes of ice ages. Changes in the atmospheric content of greenhouse gases, Milankovitch cycles, solar variation and changes in the arrangement of the landmasses are all potential causes.
I thought it was lower than that (7C) Caleb.

QueensWreath, the amount temperature rises per doubling of CO2 is "climate sensitivity". That's how much the temperature would rise per doubling of CO2 with all other parameters remaining constant.
511. yoboi
Well after the 2005 season the new Norm was suppose to be majors hitting the USA.....well that did not work out.....welcome to the climate change blogs...........
Quoting 504. VAbeachhurricanes:



Where did you get this from?
Calculated it in Atmospheric Physics class, using a combination of Stefan-Boltzman constant, Planck's and Wien's Law for a Blackbody Radiation and got the Planetary Energy Balance Equation.
Quoting 507. TropicalAnalystwx13:

FWIW:




I like your pie chart.
Quoting 20. RickyRood:

And another addition: In the spirit of possibility, What's Possible, the opening film for the U.N. Summit.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
FWIW:


I genuinely forgot Dolly existed until I saw this.
Come on Donnie! The Earth has had CO2 levels of 3500 and there was still water on earth. Take the GW/CC scenarios to their multiplied conclusions and that is not possible. But yet it is possible. WHY IS THAT? added CO2 has a diminishing effect on the warming it causes. I did not make this up. IT IS TRUE
Lol.They waited until I signed off to return 😂
Quoting sar2401:
Hi Nigel. I wish I could tell you we've had significant local climate change here but, alas, we haven't. We did get 0.03" of drizzle two days ago, the humidity has been much lower, and the high was was only 85, so the plant wilting rate decreased somewhat. There is a ray of hope for the weekend, however, as a trough develops in the Gulf and lifts northward as a warm front. Lots of moisture associated with the trough, and it's possible we could get a surface low along the trough Saturday or Sunday. That should at least give us the forcing we need to get some rain out of things. Hope springs eternal. How are things on your island?


Hopefully you'll see an improvement in the short term. For us here in Jamaica, we've been having consistent rainfall since august. But the Kingston metro is still having water restrictions, with better planning, we'd have been able to negate the water problems to a degree. Approximately 950 000 people are presently living within the Kingston metro area.

Quoting 507. TropicalAnalystwx13:

FWIW:


Hey wait a second..... Its September 25th with 5 named storms for the season. When is the last time we had this small a number of storms by this point of a hurricane season?
Quoting yoboi:
Well after the 2005 season the new Norm was suppose to be majors hitting the USA.....well that did not work out.....welcome to the climate change blogs...........


That'll have to depend entirely on your definition of a "major" hurricane. There's a lot more to a hurricane than 1-minute sustained winds.
521. yoboi
Quoting 451. bradbarry27:

I don't like getting into these global warming/climate change debates. First, I believe that we are having an affect on the environment, I don't see how we cant be with everything we do. To what degree, I do not know, nor does anyone else. But to say we are the cause of this warming trend is, for lack of a better word, Stupid. This is based on the simple FACT that we have been coming out of a recent glacial period that ended less then 200 years ago. Since we are still in an Ice-age, warming has to happen if we are to ever get out of it. Technically, an Ice-age is any period that has glaciers and colder temps for long periods of time. The current Ice age started about 2.58 million years ago and continues today. Permanent ice sheets at the poles or anywhere else is NOT necessarily the norm for this planet. This is geological fact. The lack of historical context in this debate usually turns this into a political/economic discussion in reality and not one about the environment.





Well the math and science show that we can NOT impact the impact the climate by more than 10 %......
Quoting 507. TropicalAnalystwx13:

FWIW:


35.5 ACE units. We are in line with the 1962 season.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Hey wait a second..... Its September 25th with 5 named storms for the season. When is the last time we hadthis smalla number ofstorms by this point of a hurricane season?


1997.

*edit, 1992 actually. I always forget about that sub-tropical system in June 1997.
I think I heard the fat lady warming up for the 2014 Hurricane season...

Ready for snow Washi? Nice frost layer this morning...
Quoting 521. yoboi:






Well the math and science show that we can NOT impact the impact the climate by more than 10 %......




Read that back to me again, but slower..and look at the chart above my head as you repeat it.

Take your time.

Quoting 519. Tornado6042008X:

Hey wait a second..... Its September 25th with 5 named storms for the season. When is the last time we hadthis smalla number ofstorms by this point of a hurricane season?

1997 is the last time we only had 5 named storms by this point, but 1992 took even longer than that. Earl didn't form until September 29.
QueensWreath part of it is that when the earth had 3500 ppm the sun was fainter. The other thing is that you are confusing linear extrapolation with a logarithmic curve.

Suppose you go from 400 ppm to 3200 ppm, (pretty close to 3500) that's doubling 3 times. So the temperature would go up 3 times the climate sensitivity factor. By Caleb's calculation it would go up 3 x 7C, or 21C, not enough to boil water.
Quoting Grothar:


Good evening, Nigel. I am doing well, thank you. It's been quite hot.


It's quite hot on my side as well, but nothing out of the ordinary. :)
529. DrTau
Quoting 439. JohnLonergan:



Jedkins, here's what's happening:

1. If the data, the science, and the work being done by the climate scientists demonstrate AGW is occurring, then we%u2019re causing a catastrophic change to the Earth%u2019s ability to support life as we know it.

2. Given the above, I will be required to change my lifestyle (and consequently, my politics), lest I succumb.

3. I don%u2019t wanna change my treasured lifestyle!!!!!

4. Conclusion: The data is bad, the science is bad, and the climate scientists are all a bunch of bad guys who are only trying to sabotage my beloved lifestyle. Therefore I don%u2019t have to acknowledge it or act on it.

5. Outcome: I win because I want to, and I don%u2019t have to change anything I%u2019m doing. (Back to sleep%u2026)

You%u2019re dealing with that, not with real skeptics who are looking for truth %u2014 whichever direction it happens to blow.

That's like a teacher telling one of their students that that student should study tonight for a test tomorrow, to which the student replies that there really isn't a test tomorrow because that student wants to play videogames instead of study for the test. It's a sort of logical fallacy, not actual proof debunking global warming.

Also, who says your politics or lifestyle need to change? Becoming more eco friendly isn't all that hard at all on the individual level (simple things like unplugging stuff that isn't on use, taking short shorts, using phones or laptops for entertainment more than desktop computers etc). A flip to completely staying every carbon footprint, on the other hand, is quite meticulous for the time being, and it's understandable how that might make people not want to do anything -- but even just a little change in action helps in the long run.

Best of all, it does not require anyone to change politics! The awareness of global warming isn't (and should not be thought of as) unique to the "left" nor the "right", so rest assured that admitting it's existence does not make you a confirmed other-party extremist (though that shouldn't happen with near anything else, either)

Edit: turns out I didn't read the last part of that post I was commenting on. Well this is embarrassing...please mark this comment as spam if it annoys you too much
Since 1950 only one other season has produced a total of 5 named storms which was the 1962 season. I wonder what the blog would have been like back then.





531. yoboi
Quoting 525. Patrap:




Read that back to me again, but slower..and look at the chart above my head as you repeat it.

Take your time.





Got it....humans can NOT impact the climate by more than 10 %....the math and science show it.....Thanks for pointing out.....
How about the 1983 season with 4 named storms?
Quoting 524. Dakster:

I think I heard the fat lady warming up for the 2014 Hurricane season...

Ready for snow Washi? Nice frost layer this morning...
LOL
...RACHEL...THE 17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR...DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...
8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 24
Location: 15.3°N 107.4°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

The EPAC keeps on going. Doesn't look like this one will amount to much, though.
535. yoboi
Quoting 520. CybrTeddy:



That'll have to depend entirely on your definition of a "major" hurricane. There's a lot more to a hurricane than 1-minute sustained winds.



Are you saying the NHC classified a major hitting the USA after Wilma ?????
Quoting 532. DonnieBwkGA:

How about the 1983 season with 4 named storms?
Shhh dangnabit my eyes gave in there I was looking at the list and miss looked. Donnie is right guys.
Quoting 531. yoboi:




Got it....humans can NOT impact the climate by more than 10 %....the math and science show it.....Thanks for pointing out.....


As stated earlier to another Sith, those "Brietbart" Mind tricks don't werk on my BHG.

(Brain Housing Group)


Quoting 526. TropicalAnalystwx13:


1997 is the last time we only had 5 named storms by this point, but 1992 took even longer than that. Earl didn't form until September 29.

Continuing through the database, 1983 and 1972 didn't even get a 5th named storm, 1982 didn't see "Ernesto" until October 1, 1977 and 1965 didn't see "Evelyn" and "Elena" until October 14, 1967 didn't see "Edith" until September 28, 1963 didn't see "Edith" until September 24, and 1962 didn't see "Ella" until October 15. Of course, all these years within the cold AMO era, when seasons weren't expected to be active. 2013 and 2014 have been pretty significant anomalies.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...RACHEL...THE 17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR...DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...
8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 24
Location: 15.3°N 107.4°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

The EPAC keeps on going. Doesn't look like this one will amount to much, though.


Think we'll get to the Greek alphabet?
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


Speaking of, how many storms is the UKMC model projecting for the Caymans this week? :)
Things have been a little quiet over there since it seems like the Royal Cayman Islands Police Service has somehow gotten the codes for HAARP, and has done a good job turning away all tropical storms from the Caymans, thereby preserving both the thriving tourist and offshore banking industry. Rumor has it that the RCIPS and the UKMC have been cooperating in this effort, hence the need for the CIA investigation. As President Obama was heard to say the last time he stopped in a New York City deli for a hot pastrami on rye, "We always have one more Tomahawk left over for those that don't toe the line". :-)
Quoting 483. nigel20:



So scientists and engineers cannot be trusted?


This guy shouldn't get on any airplanes. Howya doing Nigel???
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


Think we'll get to the Greek alphabet?
Does the Greek alphabet start with Alpha or Delta? I always forget those kinds of things.
Quoting yoboi:



Are you saying the NHC classified a major hitting the USA after Wilma ?????

I think he's referring to Ike and Sandy having major impacts on the US despite not being major hurricanes themselves (at landfall).
Expect heavy rains in South Florida overnight into tomorrow as tropical wave axis in the Bahamas approaches, then expect more heavy rains to spread into Central and North Florida as the wave axis moves northwest.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Shhh dangnabit my eyes gave in there I was looking at the list and miss looked. Donnie is right guys.
OK, but wait. When was the last time there wasn't anything more than a TD anywhere in the world on September 24? You guys are good at things like that, and I always get that stuff wrong. :-)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Expect heavy rains in South Florida overnight into tomorrow as tropical wave axis in the Bahamas approaches, then expect more heavy rains to spread into Central and North Florida as the wave axis moves northwest.
So any chance this gets to Alabama? Seriously, you guys have been hogging the rain for long enough now. Letting us have an inch or two isn't going to kill anyone. :-)
Quoting PedleyCA:


This guy shouldn't get on any airplanes. Howya doing Nigel???


Lol! I'm good, thanks for asking, Pedley! So How's the weather in California? Still hot and dry?
Quoting 529. DrTau:




Edit: turns out I didn't read the last part of that post I was commenting on. Well this is embarrassing...please mark this comment as spam if it annoys you too much


No problem, irony doesn't always come through in print.
Quoting 531. yoboi:

Got it....humans can NOT impact the climate by more than 10 %....the math and science show it.....Thanks for pointing out.....
You've been saying this for months but have never presented this so-called "math and science." This would be a good time to present it. There are people here who would love to see it. Go right ahead...........
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I wonder what the blog would have been like back then.







Long distance party lines!
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
I thought it was lower than that Caleb.

QueensWreath, the amount temperature rises per doubling of CO2 is "climate sensitivity". That's how much the temperature would rise per doubling of CO2 with all other parameters remaining constant.


CO2 traps heat in lesser and lesser amounts as the concentration increases. The resulting effects are speculative. We dont know exactly how the atmosphere responds. THAT IS NOT DEBATABLE. Should we ignore the possibilities no matter how extreme or unproven? NO! Should we cut off our nose despite our face? NO! should we be prudent and advance the science to better understand what the result would be ? YES! There is a middle ground. There are things that are absolutely known that can clean our planet. But to jump off a cliff on either side of the debate does no good. To diminish productivity of economy's,squash responsible scientific research just because it could be contrary,to do all these things when the science,the model results,the actual intricate earthly responses to how mans influences are actually changing the atmosphere is not completely known, to do all these detrimental economic things on educated computer guesses is just as; if not more, irresponsible than doing nothing!
552. yoboi
Quoting 543. WeatherNerdPR:


I think he's referring to Ike and Sandy having major impacts on the US despite not being major hurricanes themselves (at landfall).



You can try and spin the narrative all you like......But the USA has not had a major hit since Wilma...........
Here's the Northeast Pacific (East and Central Pacific combined), which currently has the 12th highest ACE in the reliable record (which is only back to 1970):

Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
I thought it was lower than that (7C) Caleb.

QueensWreath, the amount temperature rises per doubling of CO2 is "climate sensitivity". That's how much the temperature would rise per doubling of CO2 with all other parameters remaining constant.


And all other parameters dont remain constant.
Quoting 471. Naga5000:



The FACT is that we were in a cooling trend before the current rise it's been 6,000 years since the Holocene Thermal Maximum Link, and we should be headed towards another ice Age in roughly 1500 years according to research Link, the FACT is you should probably do some reading on the topic before stating facts.

Also, randomly capitalized words are annoying. :) Cheers.


But if the Earth is only 6000 years old, how can you be right????? ;)
Quoting 547. nigel20:



Lol! I'm good, thanks for asking, Pedley! So How's the weather in California? Still hot and dry?

Yup, still HOT and Dry. Saw 15% humidity today and 94.7F
Quoting Jedkins01:
Expect heavy rains in South Florida overnight into tomorrow as tropical wave axis in the Bahamas approaches, then expect more heavy rains to spread into Central and North Florida as the wave axis moves northwest.


Hi Jed! Are they speaking about th TW that's moving across Jamaica? Is the wave axis elongated?
Quoting PedleyCA:


This guy shouldn't get on any airplanes. Howya doing Nigel???
We just had a vintage 1942 model Army Piper L-4 that crashed in the Chattahoochee River, sadly killing both pilots on board.
We don't know the cause yet, but just think about the concept. Here was a 74 year old airplane that flew in war and peace, and did so safely until this week...and with 1942 engineering. It is truly amazing what scientists and engineers have been able to do accomplish just in my lifetime.
Interesting...
Quoting 558. sar2401:

We just had a vintage 1942 model Army Piper L-4 that crashed in the Chattahoochee River, sadly killing both pilots on board.
We don't know the cause yet, but just think about the concept. Here was a 74 year old airplane that flew in war and peace, and did so safely until this week...and with 1942 engineering. It is truly amazing what scientists and engineers have been able to do accomplish just in my lifetime.

Yes it is. You get any rain yet? How hot was it there today. Lovely Water Cooler day here.
QueensWreath, that's true. Decreasing snow and ice cover is an example of a positive feedback that causes the temperature to rise more rapidly.
Quoting 530. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Since 1950 only one other season has produced a total of 5 named storms which was the 1962 season. I wonder what the blog would have been like back then.






Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's the Northeast Pacific (East and Central Pacific combined), which currently has the 12th highest ACE in the reliable record (which is only back to 1970):



Can you do one for 2005?
If I were a person who rejected mainstream climate science, I would be so embarrassed by some of the comments made here in the last few hours by people who reject mainstream climate science, and I would be even more embarrassed that the people who made these comments are apparently oblivious as to what is embarrassing about those comments. It wouldn't surprise me if some of those comments backfire, and some people who reject mainstream climate science change their minds because of some of those comments.
Quoting 439. JohnLonergan:



Jedkins, here's what's happening:

1. If the data, the science, and the work being done by the climate scientists demonstrate AGW is occurring, then we%u2019re causing a catastrophic change to the Earth%u2019s ability to support life as we know it.

2. Given the above, I will be required to change my lifestyle (and consequently, my politics), lest I succumb.

3. I don%u2019t wanna change my treasured lifestyle!!!!!

4. Conclusion: The data is bad, the science is bad, and the climate scientists are all a bunch of bad guys who are only trying to sabotage my beloved lifestyle. Therefore I don%u2019t have to acknowledge it or act on it.

5. Outcome: I win because I want to, and I don%u2019t have to change anything I%u2019m doing. (Back to sleep%u2026)

You%u2019re dealing with that, not with real skeptics who are looking for truth %u2014 whichever direction it happens to blow.


That is indeed the problem, people don't want to believe in it because it requires a major life change, a sacrifice, and it requires cooperation and peace with people who don't make us feel comfortable, i.e. stepping out of the comfort zone.

People seem to go to amazingly far levels to base things around a conceptual model the fits how they want the world to work, even if that person is very smart, the person may be willing to believe complete garbage to fit their model.

Its no easy task bringing people to the table on this one. Everyone loves the science when its "cool" you know, like space crafts and experiments with magnetism, and demonstrations about tornadoes.

But when a scientific study involves human mistakes that call to action a change of life and the way we do things in society, all the sudden scientists are the evil guys...
Here's a question. What Atlantic hurricane season since 1960 had the lowest standard deviation among the ACE totals of each storm?

(In other words, which season would have the most equal pie wedges)
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
QueensWreath, that's true. Decreasing snow and ice cover is an example of a positive feedback that causes the temperature to rise more rapidly.


And there are countless other effects that are not understood. Countless being trillions or more scenarios. Our computer models dont have enough input to spit out anything reliable.
Quoting 530. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Since 1950 only one other season has produced a total of 5 named storms which was the 1962 season. I wonder what the blog would have been like back then.

<






Grothar or Pat might have a clue.
569. yoboi
Quoting 564. DCSwithunderscores:

If I were a person who rejected mainstream climate science, I would be so embarrassed by some of the comments made here in the last few hours by people who reject mainstream climate science, and I would be even more embarrassed that the people who made these comments are apparently oblivious as to what is embarrassing about those comments. It wouldn't surprise me if some of those comments backfire, and some people who reject mainstream climate science change their minds because of some of those comments.


well if we go with the "mainstream climate science"......after the 2005 hurricane season the new norm was majors hitting the USA......Miami under water.......The Arctic ice free by now.....16 year long
El Nino by now and ships not trapped in arctic ice studying the melt.....failed climate models and expanding the margin of error.....does NOT make it right.......Oh and for giggles save the snow because it will be a thing of the past.....
Quoting 568. Drakoen:
Grothar or Pat might have a clue.


Grothar's blog calendar:

Quoting 563. DonnieBwkGA:



Can you do one for 2005?
Just was going to ask him that.
Quoting allancalderini:
Just was going to ask him that.


HUM??? I was thinking of asking for the original version that consisted of bird feathers and bones,secured by mud grouting.
Quoting 569. yoboi:



well if we go with the "mainstream climate science"......after the 2005 hurricane season the new norm was majors hitting the USA......Miami under water.......The Arctic ice free by now.....16 year long
El Nino by now and ships not trapped in arctic ice studying the melt.....failed climate models and expanding the margin of error.....does NOT make it right.......Oh and for giggles save the snow because it will be a thing of the past.....


How sure are you that that is all mainstream climate science?
Climate summit 66,000,000 BC

Quoting PedleyCA:

Yes it is. You get any rain yet? How hot was it there today. Lovely Water Cooler day here.
No, all the rain is somewhere near Disneyworld. Since the best thing we have going for us is AdventureLand, which consists mostly of bumper cars and miniature golf, I assume the storms don't think it's really worth the effort compared to trying to strike people with lightning at the top of Space Mountain or flooding the parking lot. There's just not much energy left over for us. Very pleasant day here as well, with a high of 85 and low of 59. Not quite swamp cooler weather, with a dewpoint of 62 when we had our high, but a lot closer than it has been. Georgia keeps shoving low clouds our way, and it looks like tomorrow might be like a day in the San Gabriel Valley, with low clouds almost all day and just some late afternoon clearing. The high is forecast to be only 79, the coolest high we'll have had since May 27. There's also at least an even chance of rain sometime this weekend, so maybe the storms will get tired of flooding the same places in Florida and move up our way.
Quoting sar2401:
OK, so what was the point, really? Did the NHC just want to get a floater up to look at, or what? This is the most pathetic thing we've had all season as the supposed seed for a tropical cyclone.
Maybe the read the blog, and to stop the bickering here among mostly right wingers, opposing Dr. Master's GW post. Perhaps, they decided to put something out there to change the subject back to tropical weather. Don't you think ?...
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Since 1950 only one other season has produced a total of 5 named storms which was the 1962 season. I wonder what the blog would have been like back then.





It was me and three other geeks complaining about it on our mom's party lines. Our moms got pretty sick of it and made us hang up....
I see we're all having fun and playing nice! This is great!!! Keep it coming guys and girls.
Quoting GatorWX:
I see we're all having fun and playing nice! This is great!!! Keep it coming guys and girls.


You did not read back did you?
I wouldn't be surprised if something didn't try to spin up in the Bahamas, of course.



Quoting 570. DonnieBwkGA:



Grothar's blog calendar:




aww...i didn't know gro was mayan
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Maybe the read the blog, and to stop the bickering here among mostly right wingers, opposing Dr. Master's GW post. Perhaps, they decided to put something out there to change the subject back to tropical weather. Don't you think ?...
I think that's a good theory.

Put it up as 10% invest now. Wait for two or three more thunderstorms to develop and jack it to 20%.

Get a good 1010 surface low and then raise it to 30%. Wait a few days and start running models while just saying there's a chance for slow development in the next five days.

We would then be posting models like crazy and showing that almost all of them were going to Florida or the West Caribbean. Anyone saying the storm wouldn't develop would be labeled a downcaster while those predicting Florida and the West Caribbean would be called wishcasters.

Wait until dry air starts to increase and thunderstorms become more disorganized and lower it to 20% at the 2:00 am so hardly anyone knows it until the next morning. The downcasters would say I told you so and wishcasters would point out the moist air ahead.

Hold it at 20% and the whole thing starts to look like a wave. Everyone starts to get disgusted except a few dedicated wishcasters who point out the two members of the GFS ensemble that brings it to Florida.

Change the invest back to 10%. The downcasters become even more smug while wishcasters point out several swirls and convection blowups the NHC is ignoring for political reasons.

At the next 0200 update, lower it to "near zero". The downcasters say "Next!" while the wishcaster point out that "near zero" still leaves the door open to that next swirl ahead, plus the Rocket Fuel.

The next day, 96L disappears from the NHC site, the floater is deactivated, and it's gone from the Navy site. Downcasters now say this is the end of the season while wishcasters point out that the large area of light rain now hitting Texas is really 96L and it should still be an invest.

That should use about seven days of time until the next AGW lead is posted in the blog. :-)
Quoting 574. DonnieBwkGA:

Climate summit 66,000,000 BC


I would imagine they were eating pecans, Moon Pies, and stolen red Georgia clay.
584. 882MB


Hey everyone, the weather is expected to be quite nasty in PR here over the weekend, especially Saturday, due to this strong ULL to the NE of PR, moving SW towards the area. Very cold air aloft with it. Talking about severe weather, there was some strong thunderstorms over Aguada, in PR this afternoon, local meteorologist just showed some pictures of damage due to very strong winds, she also mentioned the threat for strong storms this weekend due to the ULL, there is also a very heavy rain threat, the HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK says a FLASH FLOOD WATCH may be required.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA IS TO GRADUALLY STRETCH TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE QUITE WEAK SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...FORCING AND
EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THUNDERSTORMS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY IF CURRENT
MODEL TRENDS HOLD.

Also the Forecast Discussion, says the possibility of a Mesoscale Convective System, to develop on Saturday which as you all know means a large complex of thunderstorms which sometimes last several hours, and with the cold air aloft due to the ULL, means the possibility for Hail and Damaging winds are there.



Quoting 570. DonnieBwkGA:



Grothar's blog calendar:


I cant stand Aztecs, but I find this thoroughly offensive to me. You have finally impressed me Donny!
Quoting 579. SunnyDaysFla:



You did not read back did you?


Been trying to keep up. lol No. I looked, I saw, I left. Some conversations, I don't care to join. I think I know my bounds.
Quoting 405. Patrap:

Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than the accumulation of wealth by Men and Nations, nothing will change as to Climate.

Period.

Why ?

,,,well dis splains it kinda well.

Neil Armstrong is somewhere in Heaven shaking His Head...






You had to post it again! He's so eloquent in his delivery.
Quoting 565. Jedkins01:



That is indeed the problem, people don't want to believe in it because it requires a major life change, a sacrifice, and it requires cooperation and peace with people who don't make us feel comfortable, i.e. stepping out of the comfort zone.

People seem to go to amazingly far levels to base things around a conceptual model the fits how they want the world to work, even if that person is very smart, the person may be willing to believe complete garbage to fit their model.

Its no easy task bringing people to the table on this one. Everyone loves the science when its "cool" you know, like space crafts and experiments with magnetism, and demonstrations about tornadoes.

But when a scientific study involves human mistakes that call to action a change of life and the way we do things in society, all the sudden scientists are the evil guys...

I assume you are a believer. Have you changed your lifestyle?
Quoting 556. PedleyCA:


Yup, still HOT and Dry. Saw 15% humidity today and 94.7F


PED... 28F this morning and ice... and frost everywhere... It did melt as we hit 55F during the day.
Quoting 577. sar2401:

It was me and three other geeks complaining about it on our mom's party lines. Our moms got pretty sick of it and made us hang up....

Probably back then we would have been tolling about GLOBAL COOLING... JEJE!!
Quoting 534. WeatherNerdPR:

...RACHEL...THE 17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR...DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...
8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 24
Location: 15.3°N 107.4°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

The EPAC keeps on going. Doesn't look like this one will amount to much, though.
is the eastern pacific this year neck to neck with development with 2005 Atlantic season? they seem kinda close with the numbers so far?
Quoting sar2401:
It was me and three other geeks complaining about it on our mom's party lines. Our moms got pretty sick of it and made us hang up....


Still waiting for the carrier pidgeon from Gro with the wxtelex.
10th Anniversary of Hurricane Jeanne


Hurricane Jeanne was the deadliest hurricane in the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the tenth named storm, the seventh hurricane, and the fifth major hurricane of the season, as well as the third hurricane and fourth named storm of the season to make landfall in Florida. After wreaking havoc on Hispaniola, Jeanne struggled to reorganize, eventually strengthening and performing a complete loop over the open Atlantic. It headed westwards, strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane and passing over the islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama in the Bahamas on September 25. Jeanne made landfall later in the day in Florida just 2 miles (3 kilometers) from where Frances had struck 3 weeks earlier. Building on the rainfall of Frances and Ivan, Jeanne brought near-record flood levels as far north as West Virginia and New Jersey before its remnants turned east into the open Atlantic. Jeanne is blamed for at least 3,006 deaths in Haiti with about 2,800 in Gonaïves alone, which was nearly washed away by floods and mudslides. The storm also caused 7 deaths in Puerto Rico, 18 in the Dominican Republic and at least 4 in Florida, bringing the total number of deaths to at least 3,025; Jeanne is the 12th deadliest storm in the Atlantic hurricane history ever. Final property damage in the United States was $6.8 billion, making this the 13th costliest hurricane in U.S. history.
Quoting 588. tramp96:


I assume you are a believer. Have you changed your lifestyle?
I'm most certainly not a believer, but I drive a hybrid, added solar panels to the roof, switched to highly efficient appliances (fridge, washer, dryer, et al), and LED bulbs (still need to get a more efficient AC/heat pump). I've done all this to save cash over the long run and can easily see the benefit of cleaner air that comes from reducing consumption (all the alarmism aside). The govt. already incentivizes homeowners and EV buyers for making purchase decisions that reduce consumption (utilities and states do more of the same), but I vehemently disagree with penalizing anyone who hasn't taken as many measures as I have (and I reject the idea that I haven't done enough and must be made to pay more for not meeting the prerequisites as defined by some bureaucrat based on a climate model). It's antithetical to the spirit of the founding of this country, as there are far too many willing to sacrifice their freedoms for (a false sense of) security and peace of mind.
596. vis0
...just 4thought...s





Quoting 573. DCSwithunderscores:



How sure are you that that is all mainstream climate science?
That was the narrative that the "mainstream" was pushing from 2005 to 2007.
The 99% of scientists who are experts on climate change and believe that Carbon Dioxide is the cause of global warming, should have known that the global temperature rise could slow down dramatically. If I turn the gas up on my stove, I expect what ever I'm cooking to heat up faster. Carbon Dioxide has been turned up, but the planet is heating slower. If scientists had stated the reasons this could occur before it happened it would have demonstrated their knowledge of the subject matter. They didn't. If I turn the gas up and my food doesn't heat up faster it's probably because the gas didn't ignite. I know how my stove works, I don't think we know enough about how the climate works to express absolutist predictions. I believe the planet is warming and that man is most likely the one responsible. The correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature rise doesn't seem to be holding up over the last 15 years and 99% of climatologist are not in agreement as to why. Oh by the way I'm sure the percentage of my SS that is still left when I retire will have a much bigger impact on my life. Have a good day and thanks for your time.
good morning are you sure 96 is not gfs system that moves into the carib.?
Quoting 549. FLwolverine:

You've been saying this for months but have never presented this so-called "math and science." This would be a good time to present it. There are people here who would love to see it. Go right ahead...........
Seems like once more yoboi has failed to provide evidence to support his claim wrt humans' effect on the environment. Perhaps because there is no supporting evidence?
tropical wave moving out of the bahamas into florida today the wetness continues
GM! Should I check to see if someone has logged off before commenting?..

Florida is on Good Morning America with record rains..

A lot of crow to go with morning coffee but you wont see any apologies..thats how this blog works..
How many of the GW advocates here have a Green PC? I know most here didnt go to the march so I'm not expecting a lot of hand raises..

Those that spend every waking second on here defending the truth I wonder if something as simple as having a Green PC and reducing your carbon footprint is even practice by the GW warriors?

If you are not aware of how you can reduce your carbon footprint below is the link..

Link
global warming/climate change is like string theory in that it may still be right but the evidence over time is not living up to the predictions. I'm a liberal who used to believe  the hype. Reality may be different. There may be less consequences dueto the co2 over time.
605. MahFL
Quoting 601. islander101010:

tropical wave moving out of the bahamas into florida today the wetness continues


I thought that was more for Friday ?
Pfft...How'd everybody get there??
Car?
Plane?
607. MahFL
JAX NWS still going with a Gulf Coast low :

"AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST"
608. MahFL
And....

"WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT"

Sounds serious.
Quoting MahFL:
And....

"WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT"

Sounds serious.


Its looking quite wet for the southeast. Not just FL. There are other states around us that one of us forgets on here lol. Orlando to one is the center of the universe :o)

"Carbon Dioxide has been turned up, but the planet is heating slower."

Not true
Quoting MahFL:
JAX NWS still going with a Gulf Coast low :

"AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST"


Yeppers:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ELEVATED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUING AT AREA BEACHES. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY...AND THEN
WILL EXPAND AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
With the tropics apparently dead, October should get a storm but probably won't, and snow still over 2 months away, well, just depressing SPC convective outlooks are so dull.

There are fog advisories for the Dakotas.

Barrow, AK is 33F with 5 miles visibility in mixed rain and snow.


Into next week...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

LONG TERM /MON-WED/...

WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM BUT BOTH MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN PAINTING A RATHER
WET SCENARIO ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THICK CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING RAIN WILL GREATLY AID
IN LIMITING INSTABILITY WITH HIGHS BEING HELD IN THE LOW TO MID
80S DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW LONG THE IMPACTS OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WRAPS INTO THE AREA.
Some how yesterday was another day with no rain at my location in S. Fort Myers.
We had two thunderstorms form yesterday in the area. One stayed just east of Fort Myers and the other one just west of my location.

Only 2.64" for the month of Sept at the house/.

At our official reporting station.

33.56" for the year (normal should be 48.13")
14.57" below normal for the year.
For the month 4.32", (normal should be 7.06")
Quoting 606. JrWeathermanFL:

Pfft...How'd everybody get there??
Car?
Plane?


Well - they all flew in on solar airplanes! He He
We need to build a pipeline to send Florida's abundant rain to the drought crushed regions of America. Put people to work, and the roads in Florida would drain better.

Quoting 610. CuriousAboutClimate:

"Carbon Dioxide has been turned up, but the planet is heating slower."

Not true

That's actually incorrect. CO2 levels have been far higher in the past and it's been much warmer, and this was before the Industrial Revolution.

We have warmed exponentially faster in the past, and species adapted.
Quoting 600. FLwolverine:

Seems like once more yoboi has failed to provide evidence to support his claim wrt humans' effect on the environment. Perhaps because there is no supporting evidence?

Ahem. You realize you can modify a comment after you post it. In other words, you can insert a link with a modification.

Just sayin'
We have been warm in the past, and we'll be warm in the future. Just like we have been cold in the past. Look at the late 70's when all the scientists were panicking about the coming of Global Cooling and the next ice age.

Did that pan out. No.

Wait 20 or 30 years and the new panic and knee jerk reaction will be global cooling again.
Quoting 602. ncstorm:

GM! Should I check to see if someone has logged off before commenting?..

Florida is on Good Morning America with record rains..

A lot of crow to go with morning coffee but you wont see any apologies..thats how this blog works..


LOL! Yeah there were a few characters on here that said FL as a whole is below normal for rainfall when it's only for a few locations and those being from ST. Pete down to Naples and the Tallahassee area. All other areas are well above average for the year. Anything to combat me then they get made out looking like a dumb ass.

8th wettest September in history for Daytona Beach already and there is heavy rain in the forecast everyday to round out September.

Quoting 588. tramp96:


I assume you are a believer. Have you changed your lifestyle?

Hang on. I'm using solar energy to power up my tablet as I'm driving out in the wooded Hills of Tennessee in my 80 mpg cruiser.

*Rolls Eyes*
Quoting landocanes:
 Reality may be different. There may be less consequences due to the co2 over time.
You might want to pay attention to what the insurance industry has to say about this. Insurance losses due to climate conditions have gone up dramatically since 1980. Certainly some of these losses are due to arrogance, such as building on flood plains or in the path of tropical storms, but not all losses are attributable to greed and human folly. Some of the losses are because the weather is getting more nasty over time.

Here's but one example of recent industry reports on climate change and insurance company actuarial calculations:
Quoting 620. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Yeah there were a few characters on here that said FL as a whole is below normal for rainfall when it's only for a few locations and those being from ST. Pete down to Naples and the Tallahassee area. All other areas are well above average for the year. Anything to combat me then they get made out looking like a dumb ass.

8th wettest September in history for Daytona Beach already and there is heavy rain in the forecast everyday to round out September.



You are by far one of the best forecasters on here. And you know what I like about you. You are the only one with enough brass to stick your neck out there and make a forecast. Even knowing you could be wrong, you still make a forecast and stick with it.

That my friend is a good forecaster. And your record of accuracy is well above average on this blog as well.

Great work Scott.
If Houston had Florida rain for a day, it would have a problem. I stand by my friends statement that if a mouse drank a large cup of coffee in the morning, Houston would flood an hour later.

On the flip side, most people don't know that ET and Rainfall in Florida are almost the same and the years with a slight rainfall edge usually come from or in the amounts brought by tropical storms.

It seems odd to me that Jeanne was 10 years ago. After 2004 and 2005 it seemed like the state was destined to get slammed by multiple storms every year. I'm glad we aren't getting the big blows but Lake Apopka needs 18" from somewhere.
Quoting 623. CumberlandPlateau:


You are by far one of the best forecasters on here. And you know what I like about you. You are the only one with enough brass to stick your neck out there and make a forecast. Even knowing you could be wrong, you still make a forecast and stick with it.

That my friend is a good forecaster. And your record of accuracy is well above average on this blog as well.

Great work Scott.


Thank you and your right I am wrong a lot but I am also right a lot. Everyone always see's the wrong and that's OK I can live with that.
Northeast | Sep .25, 2014 5:00 am ET
- Low pressure moves from the Del-Mar-Va coast this morning to off the coast of Cape Cod Friday morning.
- An area of rain, some locally heavy, falls from Maryland to southern New England during the day Thursday.
- The rain should taper off from Maryland to southeast New York this afternoon and evening.
- Rain continues across southern New England Thursday evening then ends from west to east after midnight.
- Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph are likely from coastal New Jersey to Cape Cod through Thursday night before they slowly diminish Friday.
- Minor coastal flooding is possible on Long Island and New Jersey into the afternoon.
- Rough surf and an elevated risk of rip currents occurs from New Jersey to Cape Cod.
- Clouds and rain keep temperatures cool with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s from New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania to southern New England.
- Highs reach the middle 60s from northern Virginia in an arc to central New England.
- Elsewhere highs reach the 70s.
good chance leonardo c's carbon footprint for one day is equal to my monthly carbon footprint. no wonder we just laugh at the leaders of gw. the pope should be the guy
Here comes the tropical wave coming to merge with the trough that is now pushing west toward the Gulf. As this trough merges with the old front then heavy flooding rains will then return to FL later today thru this weekend.

Quoting 624. biff4ugo:

If Houston had Florida rain for a day, it would have a problem. I stand by my friends statement that if a mouse drank a large cup of coffee in the morning, Houston would flood an hour later.

On the flip side, most people don't know that ET and Rainfall in Florida are almost the same and the years with a slight rainfall edge usually come from or in the amounts brought by tropical storms.

It seems odd to me that Jeanne was 10 years ago. After 2004 and 2005 it seemed like the state was destined to get slammed by multiple storms every year. I'm glad we aren't getting the big blows but Lake Apopka needs 18" from somewhere.



This happened because I had a runny nose.

Quoting 620. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Yeah there were a few characters on here that said FL as a whole is below normal for rainfall when it's only for a few locations and those being from ST. Pete down to Naples and the Tallahassee area. All other areas are well above average for the year. Anything to combat me then they get made out looking like a dumb ass.

8th wettest September in history for Daytona Beach already and there is heavy rain in the forecast everyday to round out September.




Some areas have had a very dry summer, others have had a very wet summer. I think that's all anyone was saying really. The problem is you constantly call for flooding rains in FL, and people tire of it. Rainfall almost always averages out, so to always forecast that FL is going to be way above average for rainfall makes you look foolish. The reporting station in Tampa is a little above average for 2014, but not alarmingly so. There will be periods where Florida is wet, and others where it will be dry. Just try to be a little more moderate and I think you'd get less backlash.
World could see a nice little cool down if Iceland keeps erupting

Iceland Volcano releases more sulfur than all of Europe
Quoting 628. StormTrackerScott:

Here comes the tropical wave coming to merge with the trough that is now pushing west toward the Gulf. As this trough merges with the old front then heavy flooding rains will then return to FL later today thru this weekend.




Where do you see anything that shows flooding rains? The WPC shows about 2 inches or so for most of the state over the next 7 days.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014


.DISCUSSION...

...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TODAY...

CURRENT...TWO FEATURES OF NOTE AT THE SURFACE ARE THE STALLED COLD
FRONT NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND THE EASTERLY
WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS AND DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST
TOWARD THE FL SE COAST. LOCAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWS PRONOUNCED INCREASE
IN CONVECTION OFFSHORE ECFL SINCE LATE EVENING. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
SPREAD N/W ONSHORE THE TREASURE COAST...AND IS APPROACHING COASTAL
BREVARD COUNTY ATTM. MOIST SSW-SW MID TO UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ALONG
WITH MODEST ASCENT VIS H25 DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK VORT AT H50 MOVING
NWD AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INVERTED TROUGH TO THE S/E OF THE REGION WILL MOVE
SLOWLY W-NW AND OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS (MEAN PWATS AVERAGING 2.2") WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVG...CONTINUED WEAK DIVG ALOFT...AND
DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY. WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ALREADY GOING ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST...HAVE RAISED POPS TO 80 FROM BREVARD CO SWD...TAPERING TO
60 OVER LAKE COUNTY.

THE TROUGH WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...WITH VERY
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING BEHIND THE AXIS...SO EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...EVEN AFTER THE DIURNALLY AIDED CONVECTION WANES

FRI...THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH/WAVE AXIS TO THE EAST WILL SLIDE
WEST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON THE BOTTOM OF THE LARGE SFC
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN AND EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS...THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARDS.

LINGERING TROUGHING AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AT AROUND 60 PERCENT. STEERING FLOW HOWEVER
BECOMES MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
MORE STABLE AIRMASS UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO KEEP TSTM COVERAGE
LOWER AND WILL WORD FOR ISOLD-SCT TSTMS WITH MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS.

WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BE SCOURED OUT...ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN COMBINATION WITH 15KTS EASTERLY FLOW
FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN GUIDANCE SEEM A
LITTLE TO HIGH FOR DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH POPS SO HAVE
LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPPER 80S.

SAT-SUN...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ENDING UP JUST ABOUT DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE ON SUN
WHILE THE FORMER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WHILE THE MAIN PLAYER WILL BE THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN US...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS TO HELP KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY AS WE NEVER FULLY GET INTO THE DRIER
AIRMASS THAT ATTEMPTS TO ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

LOWEST RAIN CHANCES (STILL 40-50 PERCENT) APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW
PUSHING MOST ACTIVITY QUICKLY WEST. PATTERN WILL FAVOR ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR. SIMILAR COVERAGE INTO SUNDAY WITH FLOW
BEGINNING TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY.

MON-WED...00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
MIDWEST GETS A PUSH FROM A LARGE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US
COAST. TROUGH WILL ERODE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US AS IT
PUSHES ACROSS. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
N CENTRAL GULF/DEEP SOUTH BY MONDAY...WHICH SLIDES SLOWLY OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC TUES AND WED AS ITS PARENT UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT.

THIS BRINGS ANOTHER DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE PENINSULA ALONG
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. IF THIS MODEL TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY NEED
TO INCREASE FOR MON-WED.
Hard baked soil doesn't absorb water well.



OTOH, it holds snow well...

Never see this in Florida...

I agree, nice job Scott.
Quoting CumberlandPlateau:

You are by far one of the best forecasters on here. And you know what I like about you. You are the only one with enough brass to stick your neck out there and make a forecast. Even knowing you could be wrong, you still make a forecast and stick with it.

That my friend is a good forecaster. And your record of accuracy is well above average on this blog as well.

Great work Scott.
Quoting 630. tampabaymatt:



Some areas have had a very dry summer, others have had a very wet summer. I think that's all anyone was saying really. The problem is you constantly call for flooding rains in FL, and people tire of it. Rainfall almost always averages out, so to always forecast that FL is going to be way above average for rainfall makes you look foolish. The reporting station in Tampa is a little above average for 2014, but not alarmingly so. There will be periods where Florida is wet, and others where it will be dry. Just try to be a little more moderate and I think you'd get less backlash.


Certain people not you made statments that as a whole FL was below average in rainfall when only its just a few small areas like SW FL and the Tallahassee area.
Dick Cheneys contribution to global death with the Halliburton law.. the Kochtopus corruption of our Supreme Court, the sellout of the Republican Party to big oil and here we have jackasses complaining about how someone traveled to the most important protest this century... I'm sure your children and grandchildren will be proud of you...
NWS is calling for up to 3"-6" of rain for parts of my area of S.W. Florida.

I've got my fingers crossed.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
323 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
VERY WET PATTERN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTH ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY TRACK
WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY MOVING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CREATE A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA WILL ALSO CREATE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH HIGHEST POPS FROM THE TAMPA AREA SOUTH TO
FORT MYERS
. DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION IN THAT REGION TODAY...WITH A RATHER SHARP
LINE BETWEEN HIGHER POPS CENTRAL AND LOWER POPS NORTH. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH ON FRIDAY COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS AGAIN FROM TAMPA TO FORT MYERS OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IN A FEW LOCATIONS...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. BUT U/L PATTERN OVER THE
REGION IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
Coastal Florida may be flooding, but water control structures in central Florida have not been open for 2 years on the Ocklawaha River and chain of lakes because water levels are still too low.
Yes this is wet year in Florida and I am sure there are parts of Florida that can't handle the increased drainage from development since the last time we had a wet year...9 years ago? Many stormwater drainage systems have had years to clog.
Yesterday morning's trip from Miami to WPB to FTP turned out very nice. A little overcast in some areas, and I did get sprinkled on once leaving Miami. Around 11am as I got off I95 at FTP, there were dark clouds and possibly rain just to the north. Around 3pm when I was leaving FTP it was raining hard @ I95, and did so for several miles south. As I got closer to WPB is cleared up, and again, though a little overcast, was very nice.

Looks like The Keys/Miami has a little weather approaching from the South East today. Will let you know how today turns out.

Quoting 636. StormTrackerScott:



Certain people not you made statments that as a whole FL was below average in rainfall when only its just a few small areas like SW FL and the Tallahassee area.


I don't know about Melbourne's zones or Miami zones, but the entire NWS Ruskin viewing area came in on average, below normal, or about 50-70 of normal, some spots came in in there top 10 driest. Its noted that a few locations like Tampa International biased the data, so 50% below normal is about right.

But that was June-through August rainfall, most zones in the Ruskin viewing area have had a lot of rain for September, at or above average. Only a few zones have been less.

The pattern the rest of the week will favor heavy accumulation on the west side of the state now, so we may see over in the Tampa Bay area the next few days what was seen over on the east side of the state, but probably not that level of flooding, due to less saturated grounds.
Quoting 639. biff4ugo:

Coastal Florida may be flooding, but water control structures in central Florida have not been open for 2 years on the Ocklawaha River and chain of lakes because water levels are still too low.
Yes this is wet year in Florida and I am sure there are parts of Florida that can't handle the increased drainage from development since the last time we had a wet year...9 years ago? Many stormwater drainage systems have had years to clog.


No, it has not been 9 years since a wet year in Florida, actually over the last 10 years, there has been a longer period of normal to wet conditions, than drought in Florida. This year wasn't particularly wet, but the last two in a row were.
Quoting 621. CumberlandPlateau:


Hang on. I'm using solar energy to power up my tablet as I'm driving out in the wooded Hills of Tennessee in my 80 mpg cruiser.

*Rolls Eyes*

John did you really plus this comment
Rotflmao
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Certain people not you made statments that as a whole FL was below average in rainfall when only its just a few small areas like SW FL and the Tallahassee area.
That would be me, except I never said the whole state was below normal in rainfall. Do I need to repost what I actually wrote and the data to back up what I wrote or do you want to drop it?
Quoting sar2401:
That would be me, except I never said the whole state was below normal in rainfall. Do I need to repost what I actually wrote and the data to back up what I wrote or do you want to drop it?


Dont sweat it, we know what you were posting :o) No need to waste time explaining! It appears his vulgar comment was removed thankfully. All dry at the moment, lol :o)



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
70 degrees, light fog, pretty humid but I'll take it. Drove into Brunswick County last night and you could see the fog come up from the swamps and slowly sweep by the cypresses like a graveyard scene in a film.
I see Scott was banned lol
All this fake El Niño garbage must have driven the admin and mods nuts
Lol

Anyway it's cloudy and rainy yay
70 degrees, light fog, pretty humid but I'll take it. Drove into Brunswick County last night and you could see the fog come up from the swamps and slowly sweep by the cypresses like a graveyard scene in a film.
Quoting 637. indianrivguy:

Dick Cheneys contribution to global death with the Halliburton law.. the Kochtopus corruption of our Supreme Court, the sellout of the Republican Party to big oil and here we have jackasses complaining about how someone traveled to the most important protest this century... I'm sure your children and grandchildren will be proud of you...
tripe
Quoting 551. QueensWreath:



CO2 traps heat in lesser and lesser amounts as the concentration increases. The resulting effects are speculative. We dont know exactly how the atmosphere responds. THAT IS NOT DEBATABLE.


True. To achieve X amount of additional warming you need to approximately double the CO2 concentration. But that's pretty irrelevant considering temperature changes of less than 2C can and have drastically altered the climate. Of course, then there are the additional consequences (ocean acidification, clathrate releases, permafrost releases, etc.). There's also all the other heat trapping gases we're adding to the atmosphere at ever increasing rates, some which don't have the convenient logarithmic saturation that CO2 has.

More importantly, scientist have a pretty good idea of how the atmosphere responds. It's not magic. The atmosphere isn't some unfathomable object. It's physics. Fourier figured out the basics of greenhouse theory back in 1825, and we've greatly increased our understanding since then.

However, you don't need advanced physics or models running on super computers to figure out that increasing planetary temperatures by 2C is going to cause changes. That's an ENORMOUS amount of additional energy being added to the system.

Quoting 634. EdMahmoud:





Never see this in Florida...


So true. I miss the snow now that I'm back in Florida. Even that somewhat pathetic excuse for a snowfall in Texas would be welcome.

 But you'll never see this in Texas.
June

March


Alaska has officially asked to be cut in half so Texas can be the third largest state.

Ha!
Quoting 601. islander101010:

tropical wave moving out of the bahamas into florida today the wetness continues
That's not a Tropical Wave in the Bahamas. It's a Surface Trough.
Until the driving force of the Planet becomes something other than the accumulation of wealth by Men and Nations, nothing will change as to Climate.

Period.

Why ?

,,,well dis splains it kinda well.


Neil Armstrong is somewhere in Heaven shaking His Head...
Taken
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

FLZ047-147-251345-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
850 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2014

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 841 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE BREVARD COAST AT 10 MPH. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND SCOTTSMOOR. THE
LINE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE THROUGH 945 AM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS
AND FUNNEL CLOUDS INCLUDE JETTY PARK AND PLAYALINDA BEACH.

LAT...LON 2842 8057 2836 8060 2825 8060 2809 8056
2809 8058 2814 8061 2808 8061 2839 8072
2839 8074 2879 8090 2879 8078 2870 8071
2867 8067 2868 8066 2877 8075 2879 8075
2879 8073 2858 8056 2846 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 098DEG 7KT 2884 8026 2831 8058

$$
Quoting 619. CumberlandPlateau:

We have been warm in the past, and we'll be warm in the future. Just like we have been cold in the past. Look at the late 70's when all the scientists were panicking about the coming of Global Cooling and the next ice age.

Did that pan out. No.

Wait 20 or 30 years and the new panic and knee jerk reaction will be global cooling again.


How sure are you that in the late 70's "all the scientists were panicking about the coming of Global Cooling and the next ice age"? In the 1970's, a small minority of climate scientists were predicting the possibility of a global cooling because of the cooling effect of certain aerosol pollution, which had been increasing, and which they thought could overwhelm the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases if that pollution were to continue to increase. That pollution was reduced for other reasons (such as acid rain) after which those scientists joined the majority in predicting a global warming.
6.1 EQ just hit here.

Won't see that in Florida either... Nor the need to change clothes afterwards.