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A Quiet First Day of Fall for the Tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on September 23, 2014

The tropics are unusually quiet for the first full day of fall, with only one tropical cyclone active--Tropical Depression Fung-Wong in the Western Pacific, which grazed the coast of China near Shanghai Tuesday morning, bringing torrential rains to the coast. Fung-Wong is headed northeast towards South Korea, and will bring heavy rains there on Tuesday and Wednesday before dissipating.

In the Atlantic, none of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis shows anything developing over the next five days. A tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa on Friday may be something to watch for development next week, according to the GFS model, but it is too early to assign any probabilities of such an event occurring.

In the Eastern Pacific, a well-organized tropical disturbance (99E) a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico was given 5-day odds of development of 90% by NHC in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Our reliable computer models keep 99E well offshore of the coast of Mexico this week as the storm heads west-northwest, parallel to the coast of Mexico.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Fung-Wong as seen by MODIS at approximately 02 UTC Tuesday September 23, 2014. At the time, Fung-Wong had top winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the tropics and this year's Arctic sea ice minimum in his Tuesday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Fall, the second half of summer (for FL).

Quoting 712. Patrap:

Jon Stewart on the NY Climate March, last night.

..wait fo it'




Hilarious! Science, pssshh!



"If you put an ice cube in a glass of drinking water and let it melt, does the water level rise? I rest my case."
Bueller?
not so quiet here doc..flood warnings out for south florida today............................
thanks for update doc

have a great first day of fall
Thanks Doc.
a Low is going to move up the east coast thru this week..heed your local warnings folks.......
Thanks Dr. Masters for the new blog..well done..well done..

the truth is an amazing thing

A new study released Monday found that warming temperatures in Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of North America over the past century closely followed natural changes in the wind, not increases in greenhouse gases related to global warming.

The study compared ocean surface temperatures from 1900 to 2012 to surface air pressure, a stand-in for wind measurements, and found a close match.

"What we found was the somewhat surprising degree to which the winds can explain all the wiggles in the temperature curve," said lead author Jim Johnstone, who did the work while a climatologist at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington.

"So clearly, there are other factors stronger than the greenhouse forcing that is affecting those temperatures," he added.

The study released by the online edition of the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences does not question global warming, but argues there is evidence that in at least one place, local winds are a more important factor explaining ocean warming than greenhouse gases.

It was greeted with skepticism by several mainstream climate scientists, who questioned how the authors could claim changes in wind direction and velocity were natural and unrelated to climate change.

They pointed out that the study sees a correlation but did not do the rigorous statistical and computer analysis to show that the cause of the wind changes were natural - the kind of analysis done when scientists attribute weather extremes to global warming.

"This may say more about the state of climate modeling than it says about causes of warming in the Pacific Northwest," Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology, said in an email. "The authors ... have not established the causes of these atmospheric pressure variations. Thus, claims that the observed temperature increases are due primarily to `natural' processes are suspect and premature, at best."

Johnstone and co-author Nathan Mantua, a research scientist with the NOAA Fisheries Service in Santa Cruz, California, pointed to the fact that one steep ocean warming period from 1920 to 1940 predates the big increases in greenhouse gases, and an ocean cooling period from 1998 to 2013 came while global average temperatures were at or near all-time highs.

They also noted that the wind changes consistently preceded the ocean surface temperature variations by about four months, showing the wind was causing the changes to temperature, not the other way around.

James Overland, a research oceanographer at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, said the study reinforced findings that the North Pacific has a lot of natural variability in 5- to 20-year time scales, and he reached the same conclusions on changes in the Bering Sea.

"Natural variability cannot be ruled out as an important mechanism," he said in an email.

During the entire period from 1900 to 2012, there has been an increase of about 1 degree Fahrenheit in ocean surface temperatures in the area from Hawaii to Alaska, and down the coast to British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and California, according to the study.

The wind acts to change temperature through speed and direction. When the wind blows faster across the water, evaporation increases, and like sweat drying on the skin, cools the water surface. Winds from the south drive warmer air and water to the region. Winds from the north drive in colder air and water.

Mantua said he and Johnstone took the potential inaccuracy of the data into account, comparing it to several other sources, including land surface air temperatures along the coast, which also agreed.

"It just seems to us it's a pretty simple story," Mantua said. "Yet it's going to take people by surprise, because it is ingrained in our minds that if the climate warms up in the course of the century, it's probably because of global warming, the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases and other things humans have done that have pushed it in a warming direction."

and tomahawks are made of cotton candy

Quoting 10. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


thats a ton of rain coming huh keeper....some area's down there have already recieved about 3-4 inches and way more to come looks like.
Quoting GatorWX:
Thanks Dr. Fall, the second half of summer (for FL).



Hilarious! Science, pssshh!



"If you put an ice cube in a glass of drinking water and let it melt, does the water level rise? I rest my case."


Some people have no idea how much fresh water is landlocked.

Interesting facts from the USGS website.

Some glacier and ice cap facts


Bering Glacier in Alaska is the largest glacier in North America. This NASA satellite view shows how a glacier is similar to a river.
Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
View full size
•Glacial ice covers 10-11 percent of all land.
•According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), if all glaciers melted today the seas would rise about 230 feet (70 meters).
•During the last ice age (when glaciers covered more land area than today) the sea level was about 400 feet (122 meters) lower than it is today. At that time, glaciers covered almost one-third of the land.
•During the last warm spell, 125,000 years ago, the seas were about 18 feet (5.5 meters) higher than they are today. About three million years ago the seas could have been up to 165 feet (50.3 meters) higher.
•Largest surface area of any glacier in the contiguous United States: Emmons Glacier, Washington (4.3 square miles or 11 square kilometers)


http://water.usgs.gov/edu/watercycleice.html
Thanks Jeff. Quiet is still good...
Quoting 12. LargoFl:

thats a ton of rain coming huh keeper....some area's down there have already recieved about 3-4 inches and way more to come looks like.
for somebody it will be
NC notice the rainfall amounts .................................................. ............................
well i guess the GW topic is still going on in here..guess..i'll go mow the lawn or something...stay safe out there....
Quoting 8. WaterWitch11:

the truth is an amazing thing

A new study released Monday found that warming temperatures in Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of North America over the past century closely followed natural changes in the wind, not increases in greenhouse gases related to global warming.


Actually, what they discovered is that it is the friction of the wind with the water that heats the water -- sort of like rubbing your skin vigorously warms it up. So the stronger the wind the warmer the water.

I wonder why it doesn't work over the Atlantic Ocean?
18. LargoFl
2:20 PM GMT on September 23, 2014

well i guess the GW topic is still going on in here..guess..i'll go mow the lawn or something...stay safe out there....


for now but its now no longer on topic and well if it gets out of hand it will be treated as such off topic
Quoting 17. LargoFl:

NC notice the rainfall amounts .................................................. ............................


Hoping the reds and yellows stay primarily offshore Cape Fear, we'd be on pace to have five feet of rain by 1st October (might have mentioned that once or twice lately lol)
Quoting 19. CaneFreeCR:

Actually, what they discovered is that it is the friction of the wind with the water that heats the water -- sort of like rubbing your skin vigorously warms it up. So the stronger the wind the warmer the water.

I wonder why it doesn't work over the Atlantic Ocean?

but timing is everything and since it was issued now making it seem like its the only cause. i will always believe that the planet goes through natural changes with those effects being beyond what most can handle then add in what we have done as a society. 
Quoting 19. CaneFreeCR:

Actually, what they discovered is that it is the friction of the wind with the water that heats the water -- sort of like rubbing your skin vigorously warms it up. So the stronger the wind the warmer the water.

I wonder why it doesn't work over the Atlantic Ocean?

But another action of increased wind across water is increased evaporation, which would act to decrease the surface temperature.
Quoting LargoFl:
well i guess the GW topic is still going on in here..guess..i'll go mow the lawn or something...stay safe out there....
'

It looks like rain is headed your way so you better get to cutting.

South Fort Myers rain shield is still up and working. The rain is dissipating as it tries to move into the area.

Now that we're in fall, I really hope things begin to cool off here in the southeast (specifically, Florida). CPC's forecast gives little hope of a cool down anytime soon.

90F highs, 70F lows all October it looks like.

Quoting 8. WaterWitch11:

the truth is an amazing thing

A new study released Monday found that warming temperatures in Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of North America over the past century closely followed natural changes in the wind, not increases in greenhouse gases related to global warming

[snip]



FYI, you should refrain from copying and pasting entire copyrighted articles--especially with no attribution whatsoever, and *especially* if pasted with edited content.

Link to full AP article.
Quoting 27. CybrTeddy:

Now that we're in fall, I really hope things begin to cool off here in the southeast (specifically, Florida). CPC's forecast gives little hope of a cool down anytime soon.

90F highs, 70F lows all October it looks like.


gfs is showing a warm 10 days as well

62 in NW Florida where I live this morning, coolest we've been since back in June! Wish it would stay like this but the extended forecast shows it warming up again by the weekend. Amazing how quiet the Atlantic is, sure is a blessing to those of us that live along the coast!
its likely the results of the lows that keep spinning up in the nw and tracking n by ne up and over northern Canada
The wave around 45W longitude out in the central Atlantic is looking pretty good today.
Quoting 8. WaterWitch11:

the truth is an amazing thing

A new study released Monday found that warming temperatures in Pacific Ocean waters off the coast of North America over the past century closely followed natural changes in the wind, not increases in greenhouse gases related to global warming.

The study compared ocean surface temperatures from 1900 to 2012 to surface air pressure, a stand-in for wind measurements, and found a close match.

"What we found was the somewhat surprising degree to which the winds can explain all the wiggles in the temperature curve," said lead author Jim Johnstone, who did the work while a climatologist at the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington.

"So clearly, there are other factors stronger than the greenhouse forcing that is affecting those temperatures," he added.

The study released by the online edition of the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences does not question global warming, but argues there is evidence that in at least one place, local winds are a more important factor explaining ocean warming than greenhouse gases.

It was greeted with skepticism by several mainstream climate scientists, who questioned how the authors could claim changes in wind direction and velocity were natural and unrelated to climate change.

They pointed out that the study sees a correlation but did not do the rigorous statistical and computer analysis to show that the cause of the wind changes were natural - the kind of analysis done when scientists attribute weather extremes to global warming.

"This may say more about the state of climate modeling than it says about causes of warming in the Pacific Northwest," Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology, said in an email. "The authors ... have not established the causes of these atmospheric pressure variations. Thus, claims that the observed temperature increases are due primarily to `natural' processes are suspect and premature, at best."

Johnstone and co-author Nathan Mantua, a research scientist with the NOAA Fisheries Service in Santa Cruz, California, pointed to the fact that one steep ocean warming period from 1920 to 1940 predates the big increases in greenhouse gases, and an ocean cooling period from 1998 to 2013 came while global average temperatures were at or near all-time highs.

They also noted that the wind changes consistently preceded the ocean surface temperature variations by about four months, showing the wind was causing the changes to temperature, not the other way around.

James Overland, a research oceanographer at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, said the study reinforced findings that the North Pacific has a lot of natural variability in 5- to 20-year time scales, and he reached the same conclusions on changes in the Bering Sea.

"Natural variability cannot be ruled out as an important mechanism," he said in an email.

During the entire period from 1900 to 2012, there has been an increase of about 1 degree Fahrenheit in ocean surface temperatures in the area from Hawaii to Alaska, and down the coast to British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and California, according to the study.

The wind acts to change temperature through speed and direction. When the wind blows faster across the water, evaporation increases, and like sweat drying on the skin, cools the water surface. Winds from the south drive warmer air and water to the region. Winds from the north drive in colder air and water.

Mantua said he and Johnstone took the potential inaccuracy of the data into account, comparing it to several other sources, including land surface air temperatures along the coast, which also agreed.

"It just seems to us it's a pretty simple story," Mantua said. "Yet it's going to take people by surprise, because it is ingrained in our minds that if the climate warms up in the course of the century, it's probably because of global warming, the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases and other things humans have done that have pushed it in a warming direction."

and tomahawks are made of cotton candy



So, if I'm reading this correctly, Climate Change does not necessarily cause Climate Change?
Quoting 30. 69Viking:

62 in NW Florida where I live this morning, coolest we've been since back in June! Wish it would stay like this but the extended forecast shows it warming up again by the weekend. Amazing how quiet the Atlantic is, sure is a blessing to those of us that live along the coast!


I am in Destin and it was 67 this morning at 5:50 am. I turned on the heater in my truck while taking the oldest to his bus stop. Yesterday it was so hot in the afternoon my rear view mirror read over 110 when I got in my truck. On really hot days it takes a while to get a good temp read. What a crazy difference from one day to another! I wish it was here to stay.

And as exciting as it is to track and watch storms, I love that we haven't had to deal with anything serious so far.
The study released by the online edition of the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences does not question global warming, but argues there is evidence that in at least one place, local winds are a more important factor explaining ocean warming than greenhouse gases.



It was greeted with skepticism by several mainstream climate scientists, who questioned how the authors could claim changes in wind direction and velocity were natural and unrelated to climate change.

Quoting 28. Neapolitan:



FYI, you should refrain from copying and pasting entire copyrighted articles--especially with no attribution whatsoever, and *especially* if pasted with edited content.

Link to full AP article.
you are so right...wouldn't want the Associated Press to come after me :)
Remember Atmospheric Memory: Watch the track of coastal lows this time of year to see where nor'easters are likely to track this winter.

A job well done.

Congratulations to the crew of the USS Philippine Sea on the Successful Tomahawk toss.

Quoting 30. 69Viking:

62 in NW Florida where I live this morning, coolest we've been since back in June! Wish it would stay like this but the extended forecast shows it warming up again by the weekend. Amazing how quiet the Atlantic is, sure is a blessing to those of us that live along the coast!
I had to dig out a sweatshirt this morning... :( nice to have the AC a break though.. got the windows open and letting the fresh atmospheric gases flow through the house!
Thanks Dr.  I was actually surprised by the "core" convective burst on the wave (below) in the Central Atlantic at around 13N-42W this morning.  Not on any radar and with no advance model support that I am aware of but it might be worth keeping an eye on if this burst persists for the next 48.  It's headed towards higher shear around the 55W mark and surrounded by some dry air but the burst caught my eye this morning:




 
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. %uFFFDI was actually surprised by the "core" convective burst on the wave (below) in the Central Atlantic at around 13N-42W this morning. %uFFFDNot on any radar and with no advance model support that I am aware of but it might be worth keeping an eye on if this burst persists for the next 48. %uFFFDIt's headed towards higher shear around the 55W mark and surrounded by some dry air but the burst caught my eye this morning.



-----------------------


See post #32
The wave does look good and I haven't found any mention of it.
Maybe it can duck under the shear at a lower latitude and some how survive and make it to the western Caribbean.
76.6 F here currently, clear skies..

Gaw-jus'
Quoting 19. CaneFreeCR:

Actually, what they discovered is that it is the friction of the wind with the water that heats the water -- sort of like rubbing your skin vigorously warms it up. So the stronger the wind the warmer the water.

I wonder why it doesn't work over the Atlantic Ocean?



More importantly, why don't they talk about "skin warming" factors when the wind blows in the winter?


very warm weather for the east coast starting next week!!
India's spacecraft inches closer to Mars... and history



The Mars Orbiter spacecraft is pictured attached to the PSLV-C25 launch vehicle, with the heat shield open.

(CNN) -- Just days after NASA's Mars orbiter reached the Red Planet, India's first mission could follow suit and make history Wednesday.

India's Mars Orbiter Mission has been groundbreaking for the country, with a price tag of $74 million, a fraction of the $671 million NASA spent on its MAVEN spacecraft.

If Mars Orbiter Mission, also known as Mangalyaan, successfully enters Mars' orbit, India would become the first Asian nation to do so.

Reaching far and beyond...good luck.

Link
Looks like modals are starting to hone in on a cool-down for the East starting sometime between October 2-6.
Quoting 47. weatherbro:

Looks like modals are starting to hone in on a cool-down for the East starting sometime between October 2-6.

Not the last week in September? I thought Florida was going to cool down.
I would note that there is no vorticity at all at the surface or mid levels associated with the wave I mentioned below either.............You need all factors for development and this one has no "spin"........................
surface


500mb level
Quoting 47. weatherbro:

Looks like modals are starting to hone in on a cool-down for the East starting sometime between October 2-6.
What cool down? The 8-14 day outlook published by NOAA shows above average temperatures for the East as posted by hurricanes2018.
Happy to see fall come around. Thick overcast and only 74 here in Jacksonville. The forecasted high is only 77 with a 90% chance of rain. I'll take it, nice to have cooler weather for a change.

Craig Municipal
The Western Pacific will be honking back to life shortly with a major typhoon either recurving east or along Japan . Or recurving along the coast of China. Both Fung-Wong(extratropical) and this new typhoon should link up with an Aleutian Gyre to produce an anomalous trough over the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. by sometime in early October!!!
Quoting 48. sporteguy03:


Not the last week in September? I thought Florida was going to cool down.
Check out this sounding from Jackonsville yesterday morning.

Quoting 50. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What cool down? The 8-14 day outlook published by NOAA shows above average temperatures for the East as posted by hurricanes2018.

He has been saying this since the beginning of this month. I have no idea where he gets his info from. He said Florida was going to cool down the last full week of September. I have been in Florida over 10 years and never seen a massive cool down in September in Florida. I look forward to it with open arms though :)
Quoting 50. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What cool down? The 8-14 day outlook published by NOAA shows above average temperatures for the East as posted by hurricanes2018.


Modals are starting to shift gears as they are finally starting to pay attention to whats happening in the Western Pacific.
Quoting 52. weatherbro:

The Western Pacific will be honking back to life shortly with a major typhoon either recurving east or along Japan . Or recurving along the coast of China. Both Fung-Wong(extratropical) and this new typhoon should link up with an Aleutian Gyre to produce an anomalous trough over the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. by early October!!!

weatherbro even if it did cool down by early October this is not that unusual. You make it sound like this has never happened before.
Quoting 54. sporteguy03:


He has been saying this since the beginning of this month. I have no idea where he gets his info from. He said Florida was going to cool down the last full week of September. I have been in Florida over 10 years and never seen a massive cool down in September in Florida. I look forward to it with open arms though :)
I am thinking more towards mid October time frame is when colder air starts moving down and across
Quoting 55. weatherbro:



Modals are starting to shift gears as they are finally starting to pay attention to whats happening in the Western Pacific.

Link
Even if you go by this there is nothing that unusual in the extended temperature outlook. Anything over 5 days I don't trust for temperatures anyways but if you go by averages you can see where it will begin to cool off.
Quoting 57. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am thinking more towards mid October time frame is when colder air starts moving down and across

I agree. Around October 15th. I could tell you that though back in July or even January. Nothing out of the average there.
Quoting 55. weatherbro:



Modals are starting to shift gears as they are finally starting to pay attention to whats happening in the Western Pacific.
Pattern looks zonal with no real huge amplification being caused by these Typhoons.



Latest run of the GFS still running let us see what the pattern will be like downstream.
Quoting 38. WxGeekVA:

Remember Atmospheric Memory: Watch the track of coastal lows this time of year to see where nor'easters are likely to track this winter.




Huh? Are you serious? I always wondered about that!
Quoting 54. sporteguy03:


He has been saying this since the beginning of this month. I have no idea where he gets his info from. He said Florida was going to cool down the last full week of September. I have been in Florida over 10 years and never seen a massive cool down in September in Florida. I look forward to it with open arms though :)


Typhoon Kalmaigi ruined that idea(BTW I never said it would cool down, just dry out). However, what I have been saying is that the east(even south Florida) looks prime to have a clean frontal passage with temps in central Florida falling to the low 80's(upper 50's low 60's nights) with low humidity sometime between Oct. 2-10th(sub 80 maxes not out of the question). I never said this is unprecedented nor highly unusual. I base this reasoning on 1. We saw a powerful Bering Sea Low in Mid September. 2. Typhoons are forecasted to recurve in the Western Pacific. Both arguably foretell a cool October.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Pattern looks zonal with no real huge amplification being caused by these Typhoons.



Latest run of the GFS still running let us see what the pattern will be like downstream.

The typhoon isn't interacting with the mid-latitude jet at that specific time.
Quoting 62. weatherbro:



Typhoon Kalmaigi ruined that idea(BTW I never said it would cool down, just dry out). However, what I have been saying is that the east(even south Florida) looks prime to have a clean frontal passage with temps in central Florida falling to the low 80's(upper 50's low 60's nights) with low humidity sometime between Oct. 2-10th(sub 80 maxes not out of the question). I never said this is unprecedented nor highly unusual. I base this reasoning on 1. We saw a powerful Bering Sea Low in Mid September. 2. Typhoons are forecasted to recurve in the Western Pacific. Both arguably foretell a cool October.

Check the link I sent earlier so you are saying temperatures are going to drop ten degrees below normal at night? The earliest on average central Florida sees temperatures in the upper 50s is November.That is unusual whether you say it or not. And we have rain chances everyday in Florida this week in Central, I hardly call that drying out.
Thank you Dr. Masters
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I am thinking more towards mid October time frame is when colder air starts moving down and across


And the drop off in precipitation across the southern half of Florida is very noticeable as we work our way into October.



Quoting 54. sporteguy03:


He has been saying this since the beginning of this month. I have no idea where he gets his info from. He said Florida was going to cool down the last full week of September. I have been in Florida over 10 years and never seen a massive cool down in September in Florida. I look forward to it with open arms though :)


We have a cool down in NW Florida, it's currently 70 and cloudy with a nice breeze in Fort Walton Beach!
Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:

The wave around 45W longitude out in the central Atlantic is looking pretty good today.



Oh no's doom !
There's also a localized circulation off S.W. Florida.
Still no rain up here in Fort Myers.

But you can see storms moving to the south on the west side of the circulation and storms moving to the north on the east side of the circulation.

I just want all the rain to move north into my area.

Quoting 68. 69Viking:



We have a cool down in NW Florida, it's currently 70 and cloudy with a nice breeze in Fort Walton Beach!

Northern, Northwest Florida I could see. Central and South Florida not really. I just had a shower here I wish it would dry out.
That wave only has 10 kts of shear too.
Quoting 19. CaneFreeCR:

Actually, what they discovered is that it is the friction of the wind with the water that heats the water -- sort of like rubbing your skin vigorously warms it up. So the stronger the wind the warmer the water.

I wonder why it doesn't work over the Atlantic Ocean?



The friction drives upwellings and downwellings which change the temperature. It isn't mechanical heating transforming kinetic energy of the air into heat. Temperature advection by the wind is obviously a strong factor also


The upwelling effects can be very striking. One of the paradoxes I observed on the Jersey shore decades ago was that the hottest summer days with southwest winds were often accompanied by sharp drops in surf temperature as the winds caused upwelling bringing up cold deeper water.
Quoting 65. GatorWX:




That is a small tight spin off the coast of Jacksonville, could be something to watch!
Quoting 45. hurricanes2018:

very warm weather for the east coast starting next week!!


Define warm, that just says probability of above normal temps, not an indicator of very warm weather.

75F for next week in Washington DC is not very warm.
Quoting JNFlori30A:
I had to dig out a sweatshirt this morning... :( nice to have the AC a break though.. got the windows open and letting the fresh atmospheric gases flow through the house!
Pretty pleasant in SE AL also, with a low of 60 and low clouds from the Georgia Wedge just beginning to clear. It's 76 degrees now, which was was where the lows were last week. Had a few drops of rain yesterday but that's about it until at least Saturday. Might be an interesting weekend though, as it looks like a low from the Western Caribbean will make it's way east and come onshore somewhere around MS or AL. Nothing to indicate development right now but a closed low with some tropical moisture would be a real nice thing to start to catch us up with our rainfall deficit. The models aren't in very good agreement however, so I'm not putting the hose away just yet. :-)
12Z GFS at 192 hours is still showing that low rider approaching the Caribbean.

Quoting MahFL:


Oh no's doom !
Actually, is the only entity out there that looks promising at this moment....
Quoting 74. 69Viking:



That is a small tight spin off the coast of Jacksonville, could be something to watch!


I'm just bored with not much else to look at.




Something to watch, but I don't expect anything tropical to form. Never know though, I suppose. It is nice and tight atm.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
India's spacecraft inches closer to Mars... and history



The Mars Orbiter spacecraft is pictured attached to the PSLV-C25 launch vehicle, with the heat shield open.

(CNN) -- Just days after NASA's Mars orbiter reached the Red Planet, India's first mission could follow suit and make history Wednesday.

India's Mars Orbiter Mission has been groundbreaking for the country, with a price tag of $74 million, a fraction of the $671 million NASA spent on its MAVEN spacecraft.

If Mars Orbiter Mission, also known as Mangalyaan, successfully enters Mars' orbit, India would become the first Asian nation to do so.

Reaching far and beyond...good luck.

Link
India in the run for the space, too...
Quoting 69Viking:


That is a small tight spin off the coast of Jacksonville, could be something to watch!
It's a low developing now that will head NE through the week. It will be similar to the one last week and bring some rain to the East Coast. It will ride the stationary front and hang around until about Saturday and then out to sea. None of the models want to develop it.

Quoting 79. GatorWX:



I'm just bored with not much else to look at.




Something to watch, but I don't expect anything tropical to form. Never know though, I suppose. It is nice and tight atm.


Kind of interesting that it's so compact with storms around the center looking pretty intense. That would be a lot of rain if it were over land!
-3 hrs

Present
Quoting 70. Sfloridacat5:

There's also a localized circulation off S.W. Florida.
Still no rain up here in Fort Myers.

But you can see storms moving to the south on the west side of the circulation and storms moving to the north on the east side of the circulation.

I just want all the rain to move north into my area.




Doesn't seem like much at the surface though. Had a better signature last night when I was watching. Broad now. I imagine we'll each get some rain at some point today. We had some flooding in north Englewood last night. SR 776 even was shut down in some lanes just south of South Venice. It rained for a good 5+ hrs yesterday all through Engewood, but in most areas, it wasn't too big of deal. Good soaker!
Sfl, they did lower our chances quite a bit from 90% yesterday to 60% today.
87. JRRP
Quoting 64. sporteguy03:


Check the link I sent earlier so you are saying temperatures are going to drop ten degrees below normal at night? The earliest on average central Florida sees temperatures in the upper 50s is November.That is unusual whether you say it or not. And we have rain chances everyday in Florida this week in Central, I hardly call that drying out.


Typhoon Kalaigi spoiled the party by not recurving but going straight into Hainan China(which has now given us ridging over the east this week/end. Soon I'm moving to Atlanta where I don't have to worry about these dilemma's(but even thier party will be spoiled this weekend as the front lifts back north lol).
Quoting GatorWX:


I'm just bored with not much else to look at.




Something to watch, but I don't expect anything tropical to form. Never know though, I suppose. It is nice and tight atm.


Only one named storm for the month of September and we only have one week left in the month.
picking the fly poop out of jelly jar right now looking for "in close development" rest up. by the end of next wk if gfs is nearly right could be in for a significant event.
Quoting 83. 69Viking:



Kind of interesting that it's so compact with storms around the center looking pretty intense. That would be a lot of rain if it were over land!


It's interesting it's so persistent too. Shear doesn't seem to be killing it off, yet. Intense tstms too. I didn't even realize they were analyzing a low there. Dumb me for not checking a surface map since last night!

Doesn't appear to be much at the surface:

Quoting 62. weatherbro:



Typhoon Kalmaigi ruined that idea(BTW I never said it would cool down, just dry out). However, what I have been saying is that the east(even south Florida) looks prime to have a clean frontal passage with temps in central Florida falling to the low 80's(upper 50's low 60's nights) with low humidity sometime between Oct. 2-10th(sub 80 maxes not out of the question). I never said this is unprecedented nor highly unusual. I base this reasoning on 1. We saw a powerful Bering Sea Low in Mid September. 2. Typhoons are forecasted to recurve in the Western Pacific. Both arguably foretell a cool October.


Don't count on it as October is next week and the pattern looks the same all the way thru next week.. Highs near 90 with lows in the 70's with high rain chances the next 10 days atleast.
Quoting 89. Sfloridacat5:



Only one named storm for the month of September and we only have one week left in the month.


Kind of the name of the game this season, eh? They've seemed to sneak up on us though, so.....never know.
Big rain shaft on the Downtown Orlando Tower Cam.

Quoting 93. GatorWX:



Kind of the name of the game this season, eh? They've seemed to sneak up on us though, so.....never know.


I told ya we would get 1 and 2 was a stretch. I think we get 1 in October as well then the season is done.
Quoting 94. StormTrackerScott:

Big rain shaft on the Downtown Orlando Tower Cam.




There must be major flooding occurring. Hopefully Wekiva Springs and Grant Park have made it through okay.
Quoting 92. StormTrackerScott:



Don't count on it as October is next week and the pattern looks the same all the way thru next week.. Highs near 90 with lows in the 70's with high rain chances the next 10 days atleast.


Come on Scott, you can't create false hype for flooding rains and above average temps. One would seem to preclude the other, don't ya think?
Quoting 97. tampabaymatt:



Come on Scott, you can't create false hype for flooding rains and above average temps. One would seem to preclude the other, don't ya think?


False hype you say when there has been flooding in some parts of the area and temps have been above normal all year. Shingle Creek south of Orlando had some flooding issues over the weekend but waters have receded some but could rise above flood stage after today's rains as it appears rain is going to stack up from Orlando area east today.
Hmm 12Z GFS show future TS Fay or Hurricane Fay to take a Hurricane Isaac track

Ok
So through all the runs from early 19th Sept to now
Most take it into the Caribbean and at the end of the run it's in the NW Carib
Only a few take it NE of the Caribbean out to sea
And even less takes it into the E Carib then into Bahamas area

It will be interesting to see what happens
Quoting 99. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm 12Z GFS show future TS Fay or Hurricane Fay to take a Hurricane Isaac track

Ok
So through all the runs from early 19th Sept to now
Most take it into the Caribbean and at the end of the run it's in the NW Carib
Only a few take it NE of the Caribbean out to sea
And even less takes it into the E Carib then into Bahamas area

It will be interesting to see what happens


GFS has been showing this storm at day 16 since August pretty much every run. I just don't by it. Also the southern branch looks active going into October a typical sign that El-Nino is indeed here.
Quoting 98. StormTrackerScott:



False hype you say when there has been flooding in some parts of the area and temps have been above normal all year. Shingle Creek south of Orlando had some flooding issues over the weekend but waters have receded some but could rise above flood stage after today's rains as it appears rain is going to stack up from Orlando area east today.


If the rainfall totals you predict on a daily basis even had a chance of verifying, temps would end up being a few degrees below average. So, you're contradicting yourself now by saying temps will be in the low 90's into October. All day flooding rain events tend to cause below average temps.
Quoting 95. StormTrackerScott:



I told ya we would get 1 and 2 was a stretch. I think we get 1 in October as well then the season is done.


Sure ya did Scott, sure ya did. :p Kidding. I don't think anyone is expecting much at this point. How much rain did you get up there yesterday? Widespread coverage yesterday afternoon across the lower two thirds of the peninsula. We had some flooding in Englewood yesterday, actually just north of. 3-4" there, probably 1.5"-2" here in town. Rained for about 5-6 hours straight, but never got as heavy as it did closer to Venice.
GFS has it coming off Africa in 72 hrs
Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:



GFS has been showing this storm at day 16 since August pretty much every run. I just don't by it. Also the southern branch looks active going into October a typical sign that El-Nino is indeed here.
Quoting 103. GatorWX:



Sure ya did Scott, sure ya did. :p Kidding. I don't think anyone is expecting much at this point. How much rain did you get up there yesterday? Widespread coverage yesterday afternoon across the lower two thirds of the peninsula. We had some flooding in Englewood yesterday, actually just north of. 3-4" there, probably 1.5"-2" here in town. Rained for about 5-6 hours straight, but never got as heavy as it did closer to Venice.


3.03" here in Longwood yesterday as a big storm blew up right over us then rolled east around noon. 2.61 of that fell in about 40 minutes. What amazes me is that the models even going into the long range looks the same with no fronts penetrating into the FL Penisula again this could change but it doesn't appear it will and the reason appears to be a very active southern branch that is already in place. This could be leading up to what looks to be a wet Fall, Winter, and Spring coming up for us.

102, I'd love to hear your forecast. Out of your meager 32 posts, how many do you suppose were a response to Scott's posts? Thanks for your outstanding insight.
GatorWX, would you prefer I incessantly call for above average rains and El Nino? Is that what you consider a forecast? Wow.
Quoting 105. StormTrackerScott:



3.03" here in Longwood yesterday as a big storm blew up right over us then rolled east around noon. 2.61 of that fell in about 40 minutes. What amazes me is that the models even going into the long range looks the same with no fronts penetrating into the FL Penisula again this could change but it doesn't appear it will and the reason appears to be a very active southern branch that is already in place. This could be leading up to what looks to be a wet Fall, Winter, and Spring coming up for us.




And probably a wet summer, fall, winter, and spring after that, right?
110. SLU
Quoting 104. SFLWeatherman:

GFS has it coming off Africa in 72 hrs

Quoting 110. SLU:


Pouch 40L.

NHC isn't biting about what GFS is showing in it's runs.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 107. tampabaymatt:

GatorWX, would you prefer I incessantly call for above average rains and El Nino? Is that what you consider a forecast? Wow.


Well actually, I just find it ironic there's a flood warning in Hillsborough County for the Little Manatee River and your high temp in Tampa today is supposed to top out at 83 compared to a historical average high temp of 88.
43 mph wind gust was just recorded at the Vero Beach Airport.
116. SLU
Quoting 113. Tropicsweatherpr:

NHC isn't biting about what GFS is showing in it's runs.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




... because they've been burnt by the GFS too many times this season. This time they might wait until the wave emerges.
Quoting 114. GatorWX:



Well actually, I just find it ironic there's a flood warning in Hillsborough County for the Little Manatee River and your high temp in Tampa today is supposed to top out at 83 compared to a historical average high temp of 88.

Not a drop of rain at my location in NW Hillsborough today as of yet, and only 0.24 inches on Monday. 1.30 inches since Friday morning. Nothing out of the ordinary at all.
Quoting 110. SLU:


Why that far south?
About the fourth run in a row. Will the other models agree? So far the GFS is on its own on this one.



nice clear day over lakes temps rebounding now in the early fall sun
121. JRRP
Quoting SLU:



... because they've been burnt by the GFS too many times this season. This time they might wait until the wave emerges.

we may see yellow color between thursday and friday if all goes well obviously
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico,
continue to show little change in organization. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two
while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 118. Gearsts:

Why that far south?
to ensure its track to the southern nw carb
Anyone notice that blob out in the Atlantic that appears to be getting bigger? Just west of 40. Any thoughts? Gro, blob alert?
Quoting 124. CitikatzSouthFL:

Anyone notice that blob out in the Atlantic that appears to be getting bigger? Just west of 40. Any thoughts? Gro, blob alert?

Yes, but this needs to have an eye before it is declared in this season.
Another day with no rain at my location.
Officially only .25" for the past 4 days.
You can watch the radar and see the rain run away from Fort Myers.

I really don't know what's going on.

Quoting unknowncomic:

Yes, but this need to have an eye before it is declared in this season.


It looks a lot better than most of the "Pouch" waves we've seen this season.
Quoting 124. CitikatzSouthFL:

Anyone notice that blob out in the Atlantic that appears to be getting bigger? Just west of 40. Any thoughts? Gro, blob alert?
ya it popped up this am its heading into increasing shear so that will likely keep it in check also some dry air out there as well u know the story of 2014 so far
Quoting 128. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya it popped up this am its heading into increasing shear so that will likely keep it in check also some dry air out there as well u know the story of 2014 so far

Shear ok, but looks like it is making it's own moisture shield...does not look like dry air is training into it. Wouldn't it be a hoot if this little blob suddenly grew up and surprised NHC!!
Quoting 115. SFLWeatherman:

43 mph wind gust was just recorded at the Vero Beach Airport.


Quoting 129. CitikatzSouthFL:


Shear ok, but looks like it is making it's own moisture shield...does not look like dry air is training into it. Wouldn't it be a hoot if this little blob suddenly grew up and surprised NHC!! It doesn't seem to me that shear is that bad ahead of the blob. Don't tell WKC but I would keep an eye on it.
Florida Weather Blog.............................................. ...Link
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters....
soupy here in e. cen fl.
Quoting 124. CitikatzSouthFL:

Anyone notice that blob out in the Atlantic that appears to be getting bigger? Just west of 40. Any thoughts? Gro, blob alert?


Not yet. It could just be a normal flare-up of convection. But whatever it is should move north of the Antilles. I would watch the SE coast very carefully. When that low moves over Florida today and begin moving north, there might possibly be a little spin up. There is a big difference between the GFS and the EURO on the movement and strength. It could cause a lot of wind and rain all the up of the east coast this week.

Almost blob-like.



Yeah, the 12z GFS shows a track some what similar to Hurricane Charley.

Truth in reporting, Politifacts 10 fact-checks about climate change:

Link
look at that heat potential in the nw carib. hopefully just another rain out
No lower level spin (yet).

Quoting 124. CitikatzSouthFL:

Anyone notice that blob out in the Atlantic that appears to be getting bigger? Just west of 40. Any thoughts? Gro, blob alert?
You can see that little circulation off S.W. Florida pretty well on visible satellite.

I just thought it was interesting.

Quoting 124. CitikatzSouthFL:

Anyone notice that blob out in the Atlantic that appears to be getting bigger? Just west of 40. Any thoughts? Gro, blob alert?
Tis a sad day when we are compelled to beg for even blob formation.. I am missing the CMC's doom forecasts right about now... :/
Been watching that Blob since this morning waiting for the TWO..........................No mention from NHC and no Blobcon rating from Grothar.  Have to let it go for now............................................... ...
Quoting 142. Sfloridacat5:

You can see that little circulation off S.W. Florida pretty well on visible satellite.

I just thought it was interesting.




That deep south east flow as the storm moves more west of SFL should be enough to get some knee-waist high waves tomorrow! yew thanks for the image
getting closer gfs 180hrs a depression a couple hunderd miles east of the s.leewards
Quoting 115. SFLWeatherman:

43 mph wind gust was just recorded at the Vero Beach Airport.


I was at the Indian River County BOCC meeting this morning, next to that airport.... protesting the Oslo Boat Ramp project... clouds seemed to be building early, and they looked and smelled "tropical"
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Been watching that Blob since this morning waiting for the TWO..........................No mention from NHC and no Blobcon rating from Grothar. Have to let it go for now............................................... ...



I liked the "blob" better a little earlier. It had strong convection near a circulation center.
Now a lot of the convection has dissipated. The one convection blob that's left is heading to the north while the wave is heading to the west.

Who knows? It could be completely gone by tomorrow or we could have our next invest.



Quoting 89. Sfloridacat5:



Only one named storm for the month of September and we only have one week left in the month.
Nope Actually were two. Dolly and Edouard. I believe the typical for September is 4 or 5 name storms so that would give between 40-50% of what September should produce in average.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Very funny

Try to say that when I'm not here because it don't make sense saying it when I'm here lol
Not sure if anybody has posted this yet, just out from AGU - if you think storm surges are a risk, just wait to see what time brings. Some fascinating records from the Florida Gulf Coast, including records of paleohurricanes with surges of up to nearly 30 foot!!

Details online here:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/%2 8ISSN%292169-8996/homepage/history_of_storm_surge_ in_florida_strongly_underestimated.htm

From AGU’s journals: History of storm surge in Florida strongly underestimated

The observational hurricane record for northwestern Florida is just 160 years long, yet hurricane activity is known to vary strongly over thousands of years. Digging back into the prehistorical hurricane record, Lin et al. find that scientists' reliance on such a narrow slice of observations has led them to sorely underestimate the frequency with which large hurricanes have slammed into Florida's Gulf Coast.

Based on historical records, northwestern Florida gets hit by a hurricane packing a five-meter (16-foot) storm surge every 400 years. Incorporating long-term paleohurricane records, the authors find that the frequency of such a storm is actually closer to every 40 years.

When strong storms batter the shore, waves can carry sediment far inland. Digging down into the sediment record, researchers can reproduce the occurrence of past storm surge. Using a hurricane model and storm surge sediment observations, the authors calculated the intensity and frequency of past hurricanes in Florida's Apalachee Bay. They find that while the frequency of hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast has remained relatively the same over the past few thousand years, the storms' average intensities have been, at times, much higher than during the past 160 years.

Based on their paleohurricane storm surge observations, the authors suggest that, historically, northwestern Florida would see a storm surge of 6.3 meters (20.7 feet) every 100 years, 8.3 meters (27.2 feet) every 500 years, and 11.3 meters (37.1 feet) in a worst case scenario event. A storm surge of eight meters (26 feet), they say, would push tens of kilometers (miles) inland.

The authors suggest that assessments of hurricane risk in other coastal regions may also be biased by relatively short observational records, though the direction and magnitude of that bias is not obvious.
Quoting unknowncomic:
About the fourth run in a row. Will the other models agree? So far the GFS is on its own on this one.


Actually so far all the runs from the 19th up to today 12Z has been showing it
The San Juan NWS in the afternoon discussion mentions the GFS and GEFS that show a TC.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
COAST OF AFRICA IS LIKED BY GFS AND SEVERL GEFS MEMBERS. BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...OP GFS AND GEFS SHOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ABOUT 10 OF 20 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH MSLP`S 1005 MB OR WEAKER. AS
THE CURRENT TUTT PATTERN WEAKENS...THIS WAVE MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.




sopmething to watch here
Quoting 154. hurricanes2018:





sopmething to watch here

Uh...those are two different waves you're looking at. The one on the bottom is a wave the GFS shows coming off the coast of Africa in a few days.
156. flsky

And your point is?
Quoting 139. Naga5000:

Truth in reporting, Politifacts 10 fact-checks about climate change:

Link
160. flsky
In FL atm we're getting both NE winds and SW winds.
FWIW, the NHC has released their Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Amanda. It remains a 135kt Category 4 hurricane at peak.

I'll update Wiki ACE in a little bit.

Link
maybe some rain for the northeast on thursday???
GFS 12Z has it as a low rider............................................. ...................................
Quoting 153. Tropicsweatherpr:

The San Juan NWS in the afternoon discussion mentions the GFS and GEFS that show a TC.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
COAST OF AFRICA IS LIKED BY GFS AND SEVERL GEFS MEMBERS. BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...OP GFS AND GEFS SHOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ABOUT 10 OF 20 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH MSLP`S 1005 MB OR WEAKER. AS
THE CURRENT TUTT PATTERN WEAKENS...THIS WAVE MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


We badly need rain!!

165. SLU
Quoting 153. Tropicsweatherpr:

The San Juan NWS in the afternoon discussion mentions the GFS and GEFS that show a TC.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
COAST OF AFRICA IS LIKED BY GFS AND SEVERL GEFS MEMBERS. BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...OP GFS AND GEFS SHOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ABOUT 10 OF 20 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WITH MSLP`S 1005 MB OR WEAKER. AS
THE CURRENT TUTT PATTERN WEAKENS...THIS WAVE MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


As customary, the GFS might drop the wave the same day it emerges off Africa....
Quoting 118. Gearsts:

Why that far south?


I hope for a hard Northward turn when it enters the SE Caribbean.
Quoting LargoFl:


In my dreams every night :)
168. SLU
Quoting 164. CaribBoy:



We badly need rain!!




It's been two tough rainy seasons in a row. I can't imagine 2015 being a third.




12Z GEFS Ensembles... not as west as operational GFS.



doom!!!
At least the GFS doesn't develop this in situ, and, well, a year w/o an F storm would be pretty depressing.

Dewpoint is 56ºF here, Autumn arrived with the Equinox. Only thing I hate, in 2 months I'll be driving to and from work in the dark.

But...

Quoting 158. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The airstrikes in Syria mentioned here last night didn't only target the Islamic State, but also the Khorasan according to The Pentagon this morning. The Khorasan is made up of members from Al Qaeda, and I'm sure all Americans know what that group is responsible for. Article from ABC News:

American airstrikes in Syria have taken out members of a shadowy al Qaeda unit known as the Khorasan Group who were planning "imminent" attacks against targets including the U.S., the Pentagon said today.

Pentagon spokesperson Rear Admiral John Kirby declined to go into specifics, but told ABC News' George Stephanopolous, "We had very good indications that this group, which is a very dangerous group, was plotting and planning imminent attacks against Western targets to include the U.S. homeland and it was on that basis that we struck targets, Khorasan targets inside Syria."

"We believe that the individuals that were plotting and planning it have been eliminated and we%u2019re going to continue... to assess the effectiveness of our strikes going through today," Kirby said.

The Khorasan Group -- consisting of about 50 or so hardened fighters of mixed past and current jihadi affiliations -- has been holed up in Aleppo, Syria under the protection of al Qaeda's official wing in the country, Jabhat al-Nusra, developing cutting edge weapons of terror with the help of al Qaeda's Yemen affiliate to strike Western civilian aviation targets, according to a half-dozen officials with knowledge of the group who spoke to ABC News.

Link

And that's my off-topic post for today.

In the meantime, the weather today has been more characteristic of November than September--rainy and 61F outside. Not that I'm complaining, I love winter. :)


About the same here, where in the southeast are you if your fair temperature and rain is the same as mine lol
173. flsky
Big time lightning in Ponce Inlet. Turned off cable for a while.
Quoting 172. win1gamegiantsplease:



About the same here, where in the southeast are you if your fair temperature and rain is the same as mine lol

Just north of Wilmington, NC.
Quoting CaribBoy:


We badly need rain!!



Me too.
No rain today, and we're 14.09" below normal for the year here in Fort Myers.

We need to make up the rain soon because our dry season normally starts the first to second week of October. We only average 2.88" for the month of October here. Then we drop to only 1.96" for November. That's a big drop from our 10" a month average during the wet season (June - Sept).


Wow... what a slow TC year.... I can't imagine passing 3 days in September without checking in on the blog during a "regular" season.... even the WPac ain't saying much of nothing....

Locally we've been having the kind of afternoon showers I normally associate with late August and early September. Now I'm starting to wonder if that means our October will be busier than normal - or expected....
Quoting EdMahmoud:
At least the GFS doesn't develop this in situ, and, well, a year w/o an F storm would be pretty depressing.

Dewpoint is 56ºF here, Autumn arrived with the Equinox. Only thing I hate, in 2 months I'll be driving to and from work in the dark.

But...



Another snow in S. Texas pic.
I need to scan our pics from the 13" snow in San Antonio. It was about 30 years ago. I lived on the N.W. side of San Antonio for about 6 years.
Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just north of Wilmington, NC.


Gotcha, I'm just south of you...in Wilmington. The heavy stuff looks like it will arrive tonight.
May not be applicable to 2014. Such a strange year.

Quoting 175. Sfloridacat5:



Me too.
No rain today, and we're 14.09" below normal for the year here in Fort Myers.

We need to make up the rain soon because our dry season normally starts the first to second week of October. We only average 2.88" for the month of October here. Then we drop to only 1.96" for November. That's a big drop from our 10" a month average during the wet season (June - Sept).



180. flsky
Chicklit - Flood warning in New Smyrna Beach issued just now. Earlier funnel clouds were spotted. Hope all is OK.


notting going on here yet
Quoting 139. Naga5000:

Truth in reporting, Politifacts 10 fact-checks about climate change:

Link


Facts are inconvenient so congress will mostly ignore them.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING, HAVE LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. UNLESS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOP, ONLY EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED STORMS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON. PALM/BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTY HAVE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AS THEY MISSED ACTIVITY
FROM THIS MORNING. A FEW OTHER SHRTWVS, ONE OBVIOUS IN THE GULF
CURRENTLY ROTATING, APPROACHING TONIGHT FROM THE GULF AND FLORIDA
STRAITS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

NO ABATEMENT IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BLOCKED FLOW THANKS TO A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IS RESPONSIBLE, WHICH COULD ALSO BE CLASSIFIED AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY
THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WILL BE ATTRACTED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY. EVEN INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE OFF NEW ENGLAND, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STILL HANG OVER THE
REGION. THIS IS A COMMON PATTERN IN THE FALL WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS, AS FAR SOUTH PERHAPS AS
BIRMINGHAM AL. IN ADDITION, PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN EASTERN
CUBA, WILL PROVIDE COPIUS MOISTURE WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS, MOVING ON SHORE DURING ALL TIMES OF THE
DAY. PWATS EASILY AROUND 2 INCHES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS CAN
LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS IN URBAN AREAS/ROADWAYS. ALSO FLOOD PRONE
AREAS LIKE MIAMI BEACH AND NAPLES COULD BE AFFECTED.
Quoting 178. win1gamegiantsplease:



Gotcha, I'm just south of you...in Wilmington. The heavy stuff looks like it will arrive tonight.


im between ya both, in Wrightsboro less than a mile from ILM
I wore a jacket today..anyone else in the Southeast did the same?



I'm in downtown Orlando and there is an absolute deluge for the past hour with lots of street flooding, wind gusts to 40 mph, heavy rain and lightning.
Warning Boring Weather Alert!!!
Absolutely Gorgeous day here! :D
Happy Fall All!

Fair

83°F

28°C

Humidity34%
Wind SpeedN 5 mph
Barometer30.06 in
Dewpoint52°F (11°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index82°F (28°C)

Last Update on 23 Sep 4:15 pm CDT
5 posts in the last hour, seasons end must be close 😥
Quoting 189. AtHomeInTX:

Warning Boring Weather Alert!!!
Absolutely Gorgeous day here! :D
Happy Fall All!

Fair

83°F

28°C

Humidity34%
Wind SpeedN 5 mph
Barometer30.06 in
Dewpoint52°F (11°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index82°F (28°C)

Last Update on 23 Sep 4:15 pm CDT
Weather here is incredible today. Light breeze, 70 degrees, humidity at 40 %...Mid 40,s last night...upper 40,s tonight...no problem..:)
Quoting 176. BahaHurican:

Wow... what a slow TC year.... I can't imagine passing 3 days in September without checking in on the blog during a "regular" season.... even the WPac ain't saying much of nothing....

Locally we've been having the kind of afternoon showers I normally associate with late August and early September. Now I'm starting to wonder if that means our October will be busier than normal - or expected....
I welcome the break in activity...There are others that share my feelings on this..:)
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:50 PM PDT on September 23, 2014
Clear
94.0 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 90 °F
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 44 °F

Wind: 7.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 14.0 mph
Pressure: 29.87 in (Falling)
dryer than forecast but I'll take it
makes the water cooler work better.
Quoting 192. hydrus:

I welcome the break in activity...There are others that share my feelings on this..:)


What activity might you be referring?
Quoting 185. K8eCane:



im between ya both, in Wrightsboro less than a mile from ILM


Which I guess by default makes tropanalyst from Burgaw. Seems to be a good crowd from the ILM-MYR area here, but I guess there's a lot of people who post here that live in or near 'hurricane alley' anyway.
Its slowly starting to show signs of Fall in north Florida, this is the coolest and driest airmass probably since early May here, we only topped at 85 for a high tonight we are expecting low-mid 60's, and there is a nice breeze.

I'm conflicted though, I love the feel of this cooler drier air, but I miss the rain and thunderstorms of the moist airmasses.

Check out how low the dewpoints and temps are here:

A Few Clouds

83°F

28°C

Humidity53%
Wind SpeedNE 8 mph
Barometer30.02 in (1016.5 mb)
Dewpoint64°F (18°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index84°F (29°C)

Last Update on 23 Sep 5:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


Also there are no 90's here anymore in the 70 day forecast, it was just last week that we were still 93-94 with 100+ heat index, this ia big change relatively speaking.
Quoting 196. win1gamegiantsplease:



Which I guess by default makes tropanalyst from Burgaw. Seems to be a good crowd from the ILM-MYR area here, but I guess there's a lot of people who post here that live in or near 'hurricane alley' anyway.

Rocky Point, but close enough. :)

I wonder how many times all of us have run into one another without realizing it.
This seems interesting to me, last frame of the loop shows a north turn....
202. JRRP
203. SLU
Only a matter of time before the GFS drops the low rider.

Quoting hydrus:
I welcome the break in activity...There are others that share my feelings on this..:)


I'm one of those. :) This time 9 years ago I was sleeping off that evacuation. I just didn't realize how much I would need that sleep in the upcoming months. So yep,I'm grateful for the quiet.
Quoting 187. ncstorm:

I wore a jacket today..anyone else in the Southeast did the same?






Nope, went with the umbrella. Couldn't resist short sleeves with a high temp in the 60s.
Quoting 190. mcluvincane:

5 posts in the last hour, seasons end must be close 😥


I really do not expect an end without a beginning.
Surely something will pop.
Quoting 117. tampabaymatt:


Not a drop of rain at my location in NW Hillsborough today as of yet, and only 0.24 inches on Monday. 1.30 inches since Friday morning. Nothing out of the ordinary at all.


I seriously don't know where you're at, as north Hillsborough got rocked by a really heavy band earlier
208. JRRP
Quoting SLU:
Only a matter of time before the GFS drops the low rider.


I think is the first time
Quoting 139. Naga5000:

Truth in reporting, Politifacts 10 fact-checks about climate change:

Link


Ah, but this still means only as much as Politifact can be trusted, and at least one site indicates Politifact is "left-leaning" while at least one more goes all out in saying Politifact basically fudges on LOTS of things: Link.
So, if the fact-checkers are really themselves biased, we have to honestly steer clear of using them as proof that some view it true. Trying to show neutrality here, with honesty. :)

Oh, BTW, I like the #10 on the link you gave. Solar is going very big, IMO, and deservedly so.
Quoting 208. JRRP:


I think is the first time
The GFS poofs it at the Antilles and then it rejuvenates near the Cayman Islands. Remember, this is the 18z run which is not as good(less data used) as the 0z or 12z run.
Lots of heavy flooding everywhere around Orlando this evening from 2" to 5" of rain today. Tacked on another 2.79" today with near 12" for the month. Incredible!

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
705 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014


FLC095-117-240000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.W.0007.140923T2200Z-140924T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SEMINOLE-ORANGE-
600 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER PARK...UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...PINE HILLS...ORLANDO...OCOEE...MAITLAND...LOCKHART...
GOLDENROD...COLLEGE PARK...BITHLO...AZALEA PARK...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...SANFORD...OVIEDO...
LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...LAKE JESSUP...GENEVA...CHULUOTA...
CASSELBERRY...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

* AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEMINOLE AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO TO THREE
INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WILL BRING LOCAL AMOUNTS TO THREE TO FIVE
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY AND SEMINOLE COUNTY.
THIS
WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLY STRUCTURES IN LOW-LYING
AREAS.

* HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN FLOODING WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM PINE HILLS TO
WINTER PARK...WINTER SPRINGS...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS AND GOLDENROD. A
SPOTTER RECENTLY REPORTED A HALF FOOT OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF
A NEIGHBORHOOD IN WINTER PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING OF ROADS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN THESE LOCATIONS. SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES MAY BE
SUBJECT TO LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER CAN MAKE MOST VEHICLES BUOYANT. TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN!

Never seen flooding this bad here before.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Never seen flooding this bad here before.


Its very isolated, and it does look like an area North of Orlando has gotten 2-3" of rain today. Though, if you were to live just east, you would have gotten hardly any. Pretty typical to have these isolated ares of heavier amounts. It's Florida.



Quoting 177. Sfloridacat5:



Another snow in S. Texas pic.
I need to scan our pics from the 13" snow in San Antonio. It was about 30 years ago. I lived on the N.W. side of San Antonio for about 6 years.


I brought the snow with me. I had just moved there from Canada
in Sept. The funny thing is we had lived up north for about 18 years
and my mom had never had a car wreck there it snows one time
in SA and ........
Quoting 214. StormWx:



Its very isolated, and it does look like an area North of Orlando has gotten 2-3" of rain today. Though, if you were to live just east, you would have gotten hardly any. Pretty typical to have these isolated ares of heavier amounts. It's Florida.






5 inches in 1.5 hours Azalea Park

" 09/23/2014 0600 PM

5 miles W of Azalea Park, Orange County.

Heavy rain m5.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.

Skywarn spotter in Winter Park reported 5 inches of rain in 1.5 hours with minor street flooding.

09/23/2014 0548 PM

5 miles WNW of Azalea Park, Orange County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.

Skywarn spotter reported standing water over 1 foot deep in street, minor flooding in garage in 800 block of Nottingham street in Winter Park. "

Local news is reporting some people needed rescuing



1.59 inches at my place downtown and still falling, looks like it will let up shortly.
Quoting 187. ncstorm:

I wore a jacket today..anyone else in the Southeast did the same?






Nah. Sleeveless shirt and shorts. Temp got up to a cloudy and drizzly 63 with a breeze blowin, and I don't usually wear sleeves unless it's below 60 :)
Quoting thunderbug91:


I seriously don't know where you're at, as north Hillsborough got rocked by a really heavy band earlier


NE Hillsborough here, rained like mad at ~2pm, stopped after 10 minutes though.
219. flsky
Nice try. I've checked their citations and sources many, many times and I've never come across any "fudging" or left-leaning misinformation. Sheesh.

Quoting 209. WalkingInTheSun:



Ah, but this still means only as much as Politifact can be trusted, and at least one site indicates Politifact is "left-leaning" while at least one more goes all out in saying Politifact basically fudges on LOTS of things: Link.
So, if the fact-checkers are really themselves biased, we have to honestly steer clear of using them as proof that some view it true. Trying to show neutrality here, with honesty. :)

Oh, BTW, I like the #10 on the link you gave. Solar is going very big, IMO, and deservedly so.
4.60" in Altamonte Spring with near 7" in Ponce Inlet.

I see the GFS is back to its phantom caribbean storms again..I think it is the only thing left that has optimism for this season.
Concerning the climate changes, must I conclude that we must continue to pollute and heat more the atmosphere to finally get our so wanted rain here in the caribbean?
Everywhere on the other islands, the rain fall, and here (on the same island of cariboy), no rain !
Good evening all! A tropical wave axis is along Hispaniola, It's still firing some very cold cloud tops, likely be aided by orographic lift.

I hope that we'll not hear landslide reports, but any such report would not be surprising.

Quoting zicoille:
Concerning the climate changes, must I conclude that we must continue to pollute and heat more the atmosphere to finally get our so wanted rain here in the caribbean?
Everywhere on the other islands, the rain fall, and here (on the same island of cariboy), no rain !


Still having below normal rainfall?
Quoting 209. WalkingInTheSun:



Ah, but this still means only as much as Politifact can be trusted, and at least one site indicates Politifact is "left-leaning" while at least one more goes all out in saying Politifact basically fudges on LOTS of things: Link.
So, if the fact-checkers are really themselves biased, we have to honestly steer clear of using them as proof that some view it true. Trying to show neutrality here, with honesty. :)

Oh, BTW, I like the #10 on the link you gave. Solar is going very big, IMO, and deservedly so.


Yeah, that's true. It means as much as your trust in politicfact. I wasn't using it as proof per se, I think the scientific literature speaks pretty clearly on that. Now if we can only get people to read and understand the academic literature and understand how peer review and publishing works and what scientific discourse is and isn't (for example a published piece in a low ranked journal that hasn't been cited by other papers usually isn't a good source of peer reviewed science), we would make some progress, I think.

I don't think that is very realistic, so politifact it is. :)
Quoting 216. Naga5000:



5 inches in 1.5 hours Azalea Park

" 09/23/2014 0600 PM

5 miles W of Azalea Park, Orange County.

Heavy rain m5.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.

Skywarn spotter in Winter Park reported 5 inches of rain in 1.5 hours with minor street flooding.

09/23/2014 0548 PM

5 miles WNW of Azalea Park, Orange County.

Flood, reported by trained spotter.

Skywarn spotter reported standing water over 1 foot deep in street, minor flooding in garage in 800 block of Nottingham street in Winter Park. "

Local news is reporting some people needed rescuing



1.59 inches at my place downtown and still falling, looks like it will let up shortly.


Some bloggers here sometimes overhype weather events, and then there are other bloggers that downplay them simply to spite other bloggers who are very enthusiastic. Personally, I'll take the bloggers who overhype things a bit in their excitement, at least they are happy and enjoying what they are sharing, we all exaggerate sometimes in our excitement.

But there are people who downplay things here simply just to try and bother other bloggers, which is pitifully lame if you ask me. This wouldn't be the first time I've seen this.
Quoting 224. nigel20:



Still having below normal rainfall?


Yes, below normal, we re in the wet seasons, and it is very very hot and dry here. All the rain episodes coming from the atlantic ocean dissipates when reaching our islands (northern leewards islands), there is a kind of shea desroying the moisture, then the waves reform in Puerto Rico, or hispaniola ( like the actual wave). It is frustrating !


i do not see anything happern here!
Quoting 226. Jedkins01:


Some bloggers here sometimes overhype weather events, and then there are other bloggers that downplay them simply to spite other bloggers who are very enthusiastic. Personally, I'll take the bloggers who overhype things a bit in their excitement, at least they are happy and enjoying what they are sharing, we all exaggerate sometimes in our excitement.

But there are people who downplay things here simply just to try and bother other bloggers, which is pitifully lame if you ask me. This wouldn't be the first time I've seen this.


Hey Jed, Look at all this rain still to come.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING, HAVE LIMITED
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. UNLESS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOP, ONLY EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED STORMS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON. PALM/BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTY HAVE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AS THEY MISSED ACTIVITY
FROM THIS MORNING. A FEW OTHER SHRTWVS, ONE OBVIOUS IN THE GULF
CURRENTLY ROTATING, APPROACHING TONIGHT FROM THE GULF AND FLORIDA
STRAITS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

NO ABATEMENT IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BLOCKED FLOW THANKS TO A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IS RESPONSIBLE, WHICH COULD ALSO BE CLASSIFIED AS AN OMEGA BLOCK BY
THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WILL BE ATTRACTED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY. EVEN INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE OFF NEW ENGLAND, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STILL HANG OVER THE
REGION. THIS IS A COMMON PATTERN IN THE FALL WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS, AS FAR SOUTH PERHAPS AS
BIRMINGHAM AL. IN ADDITION, PART OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN EASTERN
CUBA, WILL PROVIDE COPIUS MOISTURE WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS, MOVING ON SHORE DURING ALL TIMES OF THE
DAY. PWATS EASILY AROUND 2 INCHES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS CAN
LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS IN URBAN AREAS/ROADWAYS. ALSO FLOOD PRONE
AREAS LIKE MIAMI BEACH AND NAPLES COULD BE AFFECTED.


Kind of hoping that^ doesn't happen again tomorrow. I like the morning sun and heavy afternoon storms. Plus I'd like to get some time in at the beach!
Quoting 224. nigel20:



Still having below normal rainfall?


You can send us 20 inches, we take them !
I think we may get close to 20" here in Longwood this month the way we are accumulating rain everyday.

Quoting 226. Jedkins01:



Some bloggers here sometimes overhype weather events, and then there are other bloggers that downplay them simply to spite other bloggers who are very enthusiastic. Personally, I'll take the bloggers who overhype things a bit in their excitement, at least they are happy and enjoying what they are sharing, we all exaggerate sometimes in our excitement.

But there are people who downplay things here simply just to try and bother other bloggers, which is pitifully lame if you ask me. This wouldn't be the first time I've seen this.


I plead guilty to underhyping as a real and personal bias. I don't do it as a response to others but as a reaction to observing that meteorological statistics tend to be heavy tailed and extreme probabilities are underestimated in short periods of record and experience. And now I'm sadly.. OLD!

4" in an hour had similar effects in my neighborhood June 10, 2014.
Quoting 226. Jedkins01:



Some bloggers here sometimes overhype weather events, and then there are other bloggers that downplay them simply to spite other bloggers who are very enthusiastic. Personally, I'll take the bloggers who overhype things a bit in their excitement, at least they are happy and enjoying what they are sharing, we all exaggerate sometimes in our excitement.

But there are people who downplay things here simply just to try and bother other bloggers, which is pitifully lame if you ask me. This wouldn't be the first time I've seen this.


I think you're right, and I agree.

I finished with 1.72 inches tonight, just enough over a short period to show me my carport has a leak...that's the "official" total.
McKenzie is tired of all the rain down here in south Florida. Forecast to continue for the next few days...

The sun is beginning to set on the massive hurricane-force area of low pressure in the northeastern Pacific--and the remnant circulation of what was once Hurricane Polo (southeast corner of the image).

Quoting 229. StormTrackerScott:



Hey Jed, Look at all this rain still to come.



I look at that image and I see nothing at my location (near the angle in the CA/NV border).
Check out Christopher C. Burt's new blog.
Quoting 226. Jedkins01:



Some bloggers here sometimes overhype weather events, and then there are other bloggers that downplay them simply to spite other bloggers who are very enthusiastic. Personally, I'll take the bloggers who overhype things a bit in their excitement, at least they are happy and enjoying what they are sharing, we all exaggerate sometimes in our excitement.

But there are people who downplay things here simply just to try and bother other bloggers, which is pitifully lame if you ask me. This wouldn't be the first time I've seen this.

Some remember a former blogger named Stormtop....back in 2004-5 he hyped every swirl of clouds to hit New Orleans...as a Category 6. He was wrong 31 times in a row, and by the 32nd time nobody took him seriously anymore....
South | Sep .23, 2014 7:17 pm ET
- A stalled front draped off the Southeast Coast and across Florida keeps the weather unsettled in those areas throughout the remainder of the week.
- Rain and thunderstorms are are likely each day from eastern Virginia to Florida.
- Persistent northeast winds bring rough surf and an elevated rip current risk to the coast from North Carolina to northeast Florida.
- Those threats may be maximized overnight and Wednesday as low pressure forms along the front and winds will pick up some.
- Other than a few thunderstorms in south Texas and in the Panhandle the remainder of the region should enjoy pleasant early fall weather.
- Highs should be in the 80s for much of the region Wednesday.
- Cooler 70s from Virginia to South Carolina and northern Georgia.



Rain and thunderstorms are are likely each day from eastern Virginia to Florida.
a low moving up the east coast with rain.
Quoting zicoille:


Yes, below normal, we re in the wet seasons, and it is very very hot and dry here. All the rain episodes coming from the atlantic ocean dissipates when reaching our islands (northern leewards islands), there is a kind of shea desroying the moisture, then the waves reform in Puerto Rico, or hispaniola ( like the actual wave). It is frustrating !

Quoting zicoille:


You can send us 20 inches, we take them !


We've seen rainfall totals increasing markedly across Jamaica since July, especially in central and western areas. The east is still in need of more rainfall though.

Radar estimates suggest that northern St Andrew (Kingston metro) had a rainfall rate of 164 mm. A met service of Jamaica official (duty forecaster), said at least 3 inches of rain fell in the aforementioned area, so this will definitely boost reservoir levels.
18z NAM total precip..

Itsa,itsa

245. beell
9 years ago.
Cat 5 Rita in the Gulf of Mexico-Sept 21, 2005. Landfall as a low end Cat 3 near the TX/LA border on Sept 24.

Quoting 232. StormTrackerScott:

I think we may get close to 20" here in Longwood this month the way we are accumulating rain everyday.




Craig Municipal Airport here in Jacksonville recorded 0.89" today, 7.51" for the month. Pretty good chance we could get 10" for the month.

Quoting 235. GeoffreyWPB:

McKenzie is tired of all the rain down here in south Florida. Forecast to continue for the next few days...


This little bird named Jimmy was happy when we had a break in the rain so we could take him out for a walk.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
841 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS HAVE ENSUED FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE LAKE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SO THE OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
SHORE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.


i guess we are going to see this for a few days
Can't wait to see the Drought Monitor this Thursday, so see how the lying Bassards say much of Texas and New Mexico are still in a severe drought!
Quoting 242. nigel20:




We've seen rainfall totals increasing markedly across Jamaica since July, especially in central and western areas. The east is still in need of more rainfall though.

Radar estimates suggest that northern St Andrew (Kingston metro) had a rainfall rate of 164 mm. A met service of Jamaica official (duty forecaster), said at least 3 inches of rain fell in the aforementioned area, so this will definitely boost reservoir levels.

I'd like it, but I'm not in Jamaica. I'm in the SXM - AXA - SBH area, and here there is no rain since many weeks .
Quoting 221. washingtonian115:

I see the GFS is back to its phantom caribbean storms again..I think it is the only thing left that has optimism for this season.


I am optimistic that I will get through this season with my house intact and my trees still standing.

(Then comes winter!!)
Quoting 235. GeoffreyWPB:

McKenzie is tired of all the rain down here in south Florida. Forecast to continue for the next few days...




My black labs do this with heat. My cat does it with rain, and cold.
Navgem is now on with the GFS
Quoting zicoille:

I'd like it, but I'm not in Jamaica. I'm in the SXM - AXA - SBH area, and here there is no rain since many weeks .


I know, but we were in a similar situation a couple months ago. In fact, close to 0mm was measured along Jamaica's south coast for the period June-July. Had you been in Jamaica at that time, you would have thought the area was semi-arid. You could possibly say the atmosphere was "absolutely stable", It was very dry and windy.
Quoting 250. trunkmonkey:

Can't wait to see the Drought Monitor this Thursday, so see how the lying Bassards say much of Texas and New Mexico are still in a severe drought!


Your comment comes as no surprise, for by now we expect to see denial of science pop up anytime solid research contradicts the ideologue's preconceived, close-minded notions. But you should know that the weekly drought monitor to which you're referring doesn't simply look at precipitation that's fallen over a given area during the previous week and exclaim, "Drought's over!" No, that monitor is based on a fairly large combination of indices and indicators: the Palmer drought index, USGS weekly streamflow measurements, the standardized precipitation index, pasture conditions, groundwater levels, reservoir storage, the surface water supply index, snow water content, the Keeth-Byram drought index, and many others.

Science can be complex, so to get a true picture--and to avoid belying one's foolishness and ignorance--one has to read and study the scientific literature; it'll never be enough to base one's opinions on a constant diet of talk radio and "fair and balanced" cable programs. We all realize the default position of the ideologue is to assume that because they themselves don't understand an issue, that issue must somehow be tainted by Evil Scientists. But that's really not the case at all...
Looks like another lightning show setting up along the Florida coast tonight.
258. yoboi
Quoting 256. Neapolitan:



Your comment comes as no surprise, for by now we expect to see denial of science pop up anytime solid research contradicts the ideologue's preconceived, close-minded notions. But you should know that the weekly drought monitor to which you're referring doesn't simply look at precipitation that's fallen over a given area during the previous week and exclaim, "Drought's over!" No, that monitor is based on a fairly large combination of indices and indicators: the Palmer drought index, USGS weekly streamflow measurements, the standardized precipitation index, pasture conditions, groundwater levels, reservoir storage, the surface water supply index, snow water content, the Keeth-Byram drought index, and many others.

Science can be complex, so to get a true picture--and to avoid belying one's foolishness and ignorance--one has to read and study the scientific literature; it'll never be enough to base one's opinions on a constant diet of talk radio and "fair and balanced" cable programs. We all realize the default position of the ideologue is to assume that because they themselves don't understand an issue, that issue must somehow be tainted by Evil Scientists. But that's really not the case at all...


You are not really explaining the real "scientific" process .......
I wonder if some people are computers or humans..eh(shrugs)
Quoting 252. georgevandenberghe:



I am optimistic that I will get through this season with my house intact and my trees still standing.

(Then comes winter!!)
Yeah it's about late in the game for anything to really affect us (and please don't bring up Hazel or Sandy as those are very rare storms and tracks)
8" of rain in New Smyrna Beach today and as a result the Red Cross as been called out as atleast 20 homes are flooded.

Just incredible flooding emerging in E C FL as as much 5" to 15" of rain has fallen the last 7 days.

Over 7" of rain here in west melborne/ ne palm bay today and over 12" since friday. Some minor street flooding for a couple hours.
Quoting 260. StormTrackerScott:

8" of rain in New Smyrna Beach today and as a result the Red Cross as been called out as atleast 20 homes are flooded.




You now you've had a lot of rain when you can row your boat down the street... Been there done that in Miami before too... Usually means alot of people got water in their house too.
266. DDR
Quoting Flstorminterceptor:
Over 7" of rain here in west melborne/ ne palm bay today and over 12" since friday. Some minor street flooding for a couple hours.

Thats a lot all at once,we typically need la nina to see that kinda of rain here,but there's 3 out of 7 months of rainy season left where i live,i like that.
We had the best rain in literally years here in the Orlando area today. At my parents house in Maitland, there was exactly 4" of rain in about 3 hours. Finally, everything is wet. Keep the rain coming. I don't know if I can recall an instance since Hurricane Charley where we had that much rain in such a short time here. I'm sure I have missed one or two events though.
268. JRRP
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Navgem is now on with the GFS

yeah... here is 180h
Quoting 267. HurrMichaelOrl:

We had the best rain in literally years here in the Orlando area today. At my parents house in Maitland, there was exactly 4" of rain in about 3 hours. Finally, everything is wet. Keep the rain coming. I don't know if I can recall an instance since Hurricane Charley where we had that much rain in such a short time here. I'm sure I have missed one or two events though.


That's odd, because growing up in Pinellas County, across the Bay from Tampa, I think we get an event like that locally most years I can remember, that sounds abnormal for 4 inches in an event to be the most rain since Charley, I could be wrong though, some local areas in Central Florida repeatedly get more massive rain events locally compared to others. For such a flat landscape, rain seems to vary from place to place even over long term more than one might expect.

I guess the probability of any given local area getting that much in 3 hours is pretty low even around here. But I do know that the probability in Florida across the near gulf coast and up the east coast by far has much higher probabilities of getting 3-5 inches in one day than anywhere else, especially the closer you get to the gulf and the Atlantic and further south. I wish I could find the graphic, but the probability should allow for you get such events more often than that. However, probability doesn't change, even if you get 5 heads in a row, the chance of heads or tails remains the same.

Weather sometimes goes through odd cycles, the lack of hurricanes in Florida on the gulf side from Central and North Florida seems to have abused the odds for a while.
Quoting 260. StormTrackerScott:

8" of rain in New Smyrna Beach today and as a result the Red Cross as been called out as atleast 20 homes are flooded.




Geeze that's no joke, those areas had a lot of rain the past several days prior so the grounds were already saturated.
Could be the low rider storm here on the GFS ensembles. Heads north after passing the Antilles and fish bound.
Chatanika Loop, Eagle River, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 6:49 PM AKDT on September 23, 2014
Clear
51.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Pressure: 29.73 in (Falling)
Quoting 234. Naga5000:



I think you're right, and I agree.

I finished with 1.72 inches tonight, just enough over a short period to show me my carport has a leak...that's the "official" total.


Yep, if the carport leaks, you know its a good rain! Reminds me of the downpour we had here at my apartment in Tallahassee on the 8th of this month. We reached an inch at my rain gauge here in only 12 minutes and 2 inches in a half hour, the rain fell faster than the apartment gutters could drain it and it started overflowing off the top of the gutters like a huge waterfall, it was pretty epic. Sadly we've had only 0.62 since then and it hasn't rained in about 7 days.

My parents house has had almost as much rain across Tampa Bay in Pinellas the last two weeks as the entire previous "rainy season" months of June, July and August. I say that with quotes because the total for that period would be near the all time record driest summer for the nearest official reporting station. Unfortunately my stay back home this summer was pretty lame due to the near record dryness, despite that we still had a few good storms while I was there this summer, but not much.

I think the total of those 3 months was only 11.5 which about the record driest. They've had over 9 inches in the last 8 days now, lol. Its good news to see the rainy pattern in the wake of such dryness, I just wish it would have came earlier while I was still at home. We get good heavy rain events up here but thunderstorms on average aren't as strong'/exciting here as I typically experience in Central Florida.
Quoting Jedkins01:


That's odd, because growing up in Pinellas County, across the Bay from Tampa, I think we get an event like that locally most years I can remember, that sounds abnormal for 4 inches in an event to be the most rain since Charley, I could be wrong though, some local areas in Central Florida repeatedly get more massive rain events locally compared to others. For such a flat landscape, rain seems to vary from place to place even over long term more than one might expect.

I guess the probability of any given local area getting that much in 3 hours is pretty low even around here. But I do know that the probability in Florida across the near gulf coast and up the east coast by far has much higher probabilities of getting 3-5 inches in one day than anywhere else, especially the closer you get to the gulf and the Atlantic and further south. I wish I could find the graphic, but the probability should allow for you get such events more often than that. However, probability doesn't change, even if you get 5 heads in a row, the chance of heads or tails remains the same.

Weather sometimes goes through odd cycles, the lack of hurricanes in Florida on the gulf side from Central and North Florida seems to have abused the odds for a while.

Agreed. Plus, Florida's climate is not dissimilar to that of the tropics, at least southern Florida. With diurnal heating/sea breeze convergence being the primary source of convection.

Here in Jamaica, we had a very impressive thunderstorm cell within the Kingston metro area (northern St Andrew) today. Radar estimates suggest that the rainfall rate was 164mm/hr (over 6 inches/hr.). In the aforementioned area. However, the rate wasn't sustained for an hour, so the total rainfall would be less.
Quoting 271. unknowncomic:

Could be the low rider storm here on the GFS ensembles. Heads north after passing the Antilles and fish bound.



inb4 government control recurving all Caribbean storms
Quoting 270. Jedkins01:



Geeze that's no joke, those areas had a lot of rain the past several days prior so the grounds were already saturated.


It is wet but the rainfall rains were very high, 3 inches an hour. Last two days I've had up to foot deep standing water in places. As soon as it can drain off it's mostly gone. Canals were up today.

They are using pumps in New Smyrna the drainage was so overwelmed & so much more is forecast to come.
Talked to my parents in New Smyrna Beach earlier, they said the north part of town near the airport got some bad flooding today.

Central Florida News 13 flooding reports

Radar estimates show 7.5" of rain in that area over the last 12 hours. My folks live on beachside and avoided the worst of it, thankfully. Still more to come though, areas on A1A where they are are prone to flooding pretty quick over there.
Quoting KoritheMan:


inb4 government control recurving all Caribbean storms


Hi Kori! The GFS has been hinting at a possible central Atlantic storm. What are your thoughts?
"Flooding across central Florida forced several families out of their homes, in particular in New Smyrna Beach. Firefighters said flood waters entered 10 homes in total -- five homes on Westwood Avenue, three on Fairmont Avenue, one home on Chester Avenue and another on Pioneer Trail. Ashlee Dzubella said firefighters rescued her dogs, but her home on Westwood had more than 1 foot of flood water inside.

"My house, everything that I have in there, is ruined," she said.

New Smyrna Beach Maintenance Operation crews spent the evening pumping water from affected areas in the Isleboro subdivision, north of the New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport and west of U.S. 1.
Worried neighbors checked on each other as homeowners watched water rise. Some came home to danger right in their front yard.

"My neighbor's tree had fallen down into my driveway and it brought down the wire with it," said Lisa Fuller, whose home has caution tape around it and the downed wire.

Some neighbors complained their streets flood any time it rains. They said it's never been this bad before, but they are angry at the city, saying a newly-paved street is to blame.

Neighbors spent the night cleaning up, but for others, there's little they can do. After two hours of heavy rain, homeowners trudged through several feet of standing water only to find that water had pushed it's way into their homes.

"Inside, we're getting about a foot of water in right now. We have a 4-foot deck on the side of the house that's floating out there in the backyard right now," said Scott Statkus, whose home on Westwood was surrounded by water.

He said he plans to spend the night inside with his family.

"We've got to wait now to get back into the house. We've got power and everything, but I'll carry the kids on my shoulder and take them back over there tonight. We have nowhere else to stay, only house we have."

The Red Cross offered displaced families a place to stay, but none took the offer, firefighters said."

.
.

Epic...no
Typical sporadic flooding for September in Florida..yes.
Quoting 274. nigel20:


Agreed. Plus, Florida's climate is not dissimilar to that of the tropics, at least southern Florida. With diurnal heating/sea breeze convergence being the primary source of convection.

Here in Jamaica, we had a very impressive thunderstorm cell within the Kingston metro area (northern St Andrew). Radar estimates suggest that the rainfall rate was 164mm/hr (over 6 inches/hr.). In the aforementioned area. However, the rate wasn't sustained for an hour, so the total rainfall would be less.


Yeah Florida is generally subtropical, tropical for just a season, but South Florida is closest to being purely tropical but occasionally cold airmasses leak all the way into even South Florida in the winter, which still makes them technically subtropical.

I would imagine that very heavy rain events can occur in Jamaica sometimes when you guys have a very moist airmass quickly flowing over the mountains from the tradewinds. Tropical waves and tropical cyclones especially must really squeeze at the rain as moist air quickly is forced upward from the ocean across the highlands.

I've always wanted to visit Jamaica, maybe someday!
Quoting 276. Skyepony:



It is wet but the rainfall rains were very high, 3 inches an hour. Last two days I've had up to foot deep standing water in places. As soon as it can drain off it's mostly gone. Canals were up today.

They are using pumps in New Smyrna the drainage was so overwelmed & so much more is forecast to come.


I can't speak for people with flooded homes, but I'd rather get a little too much rain than drought.
Quoting 269. Jedkins01:



That's odd, because growing up in Pinellas County, across the Bay from Tampa, I think we get an event like that locally most years I can remember, that sounds abnormal for 4 inches in an event to be the most rain since Charley, I could be wrong though, some local areas in Central Florida repeatedly get more massive rain events locally compared to others. For such a flat landscape, rain seems to vary from place to place even over long term more than one might expect.

I guess the probability of any given local area getting that much in 3 hours is pretty low even around here. But I do know that the probability in Florida across the near gulf coast and up the east coast by far has much higher probabilities of getting 3-5 inches in one day than anywhere else, especially the closer you get to the gulf and the Atlantic and further south. I wish I could find the graphic, but the probability should allow for you get such events more often than that. However, probability doesn't change, even if you get 5 heads in a row, the chance of heads or tails remains the same.

Weather sometimes goes through odd cycles, the lack of hurricanes in Florida on the gulf side from Central and North Florida seems to have abused the odds for a while.


We have definitely had far more rain in day-long or several day events, than we did today. What I am wondering is if we have had that much rain at my location in just three hours. I know we have had well over 3" in a single thunderstorm a number of times over the past decade. But 4"? I don't know.
Quoting 278. nigel20:



Hi Kori! The GFS has been hinting at a possible central Atlantic storm. What are your thoughts?


My thoughts are... it's 2014... expect nothing.

Seriously though dude. Caribbean graveyard.
Quoting 224. nigel20:



Still having below normal rainfall?


Yes, and it's not normal :/

**bored**

..plus... the GFS dropped the storm..
Quoting 227. zicoille:



Yes, below normal, we re in the wet seasons, and it is very very hot and dry here. All the rain episodes coming from the atlantic ocean dissipates when reaching our islands (northern leewards islands), there is a kind of shea desroying the moisture, then the waves reform in Puerto Rico, or hispaniola ( like the actual wave). It is frustrating !


Sad...
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah Florida is generally subtropical, tropical for just a season, but South Florida is closest to being purely tropical but occasionally cold airmasses leak all the way into even South Florida in the winter, which still makes them technically subtropical.

I would imagine that very heavy rain events can occur in Jamaica sometimes when you guys have a very moist airmass quickly flowing over the mountains from the tradewinds. Tropical waves and tropical cyclones especially must really squeeze at the rain as moist air quickly is forced upward from the ocean across the highlands.

I've always wanted to visit Jamaica, maybe someday!


Yes, it is wonderful island with many attractions. Both natural and man-made, we do have problems. But we have a great reputation of taking good care of our visitors. :)

Quoting KoritheMan:


My thoughts are... it's 2014... expect nothing.

Seriously though dude. Caribbean graveyard.


Lol! I got a similar anwser from a local met, though in a few more words. :)

"@everald20 The area is relatively stable with respect to winds and shear. I doubt we'll see much for the rest of this week."

Quoting 286. nigel20:


Lol! I got a similar anwser from a local met, though in a few more words. :)

"@everald20 The area is relatively stable with respect to winds and shear. I doubt we'll see much for the rest of this week."
I don't know whether to be flattered that a met is agreeing with me, or be surprised that he took the time to write even that long of a paragraph when he could've just shortened it to "Wait till next year".

Clearly this met isn't as cynical as I am. sigh
Roll cloud this morning in South Venice, FL. Pretty awesome. Can't believe I didn't see it! :(

This is so annoying! I need a new image host!
I hate photobucket! Here's the roll cloud....20 mins later. Probably still won't work. Urggg!



Guess it worked...finally!
GEOS-5 is liking this wave around 43W to be the next invest soon..

ASCAT caught it pulling together there a bit.
Pretty awesome though.
Quoting 282. HurrMichaelOrl:



We have definitely had far more rain in day-long or several day events, than we did today. What I am wondering is if we have had that much rain at my location in just three hours. I know we have had well over 3" in a single thunderstorm a number of times over the past decade. But 4"? I don't know.


That's true, 4 inches in 3 hours is pretty crazy, that isn't something that happens often, that's for sure, its just a decade seems a bit long to me. I could be wrong though. I know that back home in Tampa Bay, we saw 4 inches in 2 hours last year, 3 inches in hour during the same year another day, and we had 3 inches in one hour the year before as well. We had 5 inches in one hour from a thunderstorm in 2009 as well.

Its actually less common to get several inches in a really short time in a tropical cyclone than from afternoon thunderstorms. That's because afternoon thunderstorms are more likely to produce slow moving training events where the precip maxes sit over you for a while. In tropical cyclones, rain bands move 40-60 mph so while the instantaneous rainfall rates are very high in convection, the duration of the heavy precip is often very short, often the convective cells only last in 5 minute bursts due fast movement with a CDO shield of light to moderate rain from high cloud tops in between for hours. Eyewalls though can produce much heavy rainfall totals because while the cells are moving fast, they aren't rapidly propagating outward from the center like the other bands due.


Obviously slower moving tropical cyclones allow the heavier rainfall rates to last longer, especially near the core, and pile up fast:

Quoting 292. GatorWX:

Pretty awesome though.

That is an awesome cloud.
Quoting 294. Skyepony:


That is an awesome cloud.


Wish I saw it. I was out early, but apparently it didn't stretch this far south. I'm about 15 or so miles south of South Venice. Wish I could take credit for the shot. :)
Quoting 293. Jedkins01:



That's true, 4 inches in 3 hours is pretty crazy, that isn't something that happens often, that's for sure, its just a decade seems a bit long to me. I could be wrong though. I know that back home in Tampa Bay, we saw 4 inches in 2 hours last year, 3 inches in hour during the same year another day, and we had 3 inches in one hour the year before as well. We had 5 inches in one hour from a thunderstorm in 2009 as well.

Its actually less common to get several inches in a really short time in a tropical cyclone than from afternoon thunderstorms. That's because afternoon thunderstorms are more likely to produce slow moving training events where the precip maxes sit over you for a while. In tropical cyclones, rain bands move 40-60 mph so while the instantaneous rainfall rates are very high in convection, the duration of the heavy precip is often very short, often the convective cells only last in 5 minute bursts due fast movement with a CDO shield of light to moderate rain from high cloud tops in between for hours. Eyewalls though can produce much heavy rainfall totals because while the cells are moving fast, they aren't rapidly propagating outward from the center like the other bands due.


Obviously slower moving tropical cyclones allow the heavier rainfall rates to last longer, especially near the core, and pile up fast:




We had a back building cell that dumped 6-8" between 0430 and 0700 last June 2.


Mostly between 0430 and 0600, it just down poured and it dumped and dumped and it never really moved at all. It was nuts. Either the worst or second worst I'd seen, ever. Used to heavy thunderstorms, being a Floridian, but it's rare to get those types of storms. Kind of a once every 5-10 year thing, that I've witnessed.
Quoting 296. GatorWX:



We had a back building cell that dumped 6-8" between 0430 and 0700 last June 2.





lol, I mean July :p. I see the "begin" date, but this really all fell that morning in my area. It was one I'll probably always remember.
300. emguy
Quoting 298. GatorWX:



lol, I mean July :p. I see the "begin" date, but this really all fell that morning in my area. It was one I'll probably always remember.


Near same location...In June 1995...in Englewood East, FL...we had just over 17.5 inches of rainfall in just under 4 hours. Worst flooding in Englewood History. Will never forget running out to dump the 5 inch rain guage about every 45 minutes during the peak of it. Our house was built up on fill...still had cars parked against the house.
Quoting 269. Jedkins01:



That's odd, because growing up in Pinellas County, across the Bay from Tampa, I think we get an event like that locally most years I can remember, that sounds abnormal for 4 inches in an event to be the most rain since Charley, I could be wrong though, some local areas in Central Florida repeatedly get more massive rain events locally compared to others. For such a flat landscape, rain seems to vary from place to place even over long term more than one might expect.

I guess the probability of any given local area getting that much in 3 hours is pretty low even around here. But I do know that the probability in Florida across the near gulf coast and up the east coast by far has much higher probabilities of getting 3-5 inches in one day than anywhere else, especially the closer you get to the gulf and the Atlantic and further south. I wish I could find the graphic, but the probability should allow for you get such events more often than that. However, probability doesn't change, even if you get 5 heads in a row, the chance of heads or tails remains the same.

Weather sometimes goes through odd cycles, the lack of hurricanes in Florida on the gulf side from Central and North Florida seems to have abused the odds for a while.
What is the best pizza in Clearwater? I am planning my stay up north. Ruebens, Cubans, and other foods would help.
Quoting 284. CaribBoy:



Yes, and it's not normal :/

**bored**

..plus... the GFS dropped the storm..
It's still there approaching the islands in 7 days.

Quoting 300. emguy:



Near same location...In June 1995...in Englewood East, FL...we had just over 17.5 inches of rainfall in just under 4 hours. Worst flooding in Englewood History. Will never forget running out to dump the 5 inch rain guage about every 45 minutes during the peak of it. Our house was built up on fill...still had cars parked against the house.
That's why we call it Englewierd. That, and all the strange Yankees that move there.


It looks like there is a weak low in the Florida straights by the keys via radar data, but surface vort analysis supports a vort max off Daytona Beach area, given both areas are attached to the same elongated vorticity region but the strongest is off the east coast, I wouldn't expect rotation down there. Its possible that it may be the geography that's aiding in the spin.
Quoting 296. GatorWX:



We had a back building cell that dumped 6-8" between 0430 and 0700 last June 2.





Yeah I don't know if you remember hearing about this, but 8-15 inches of Rain fell in parts of the Tampa Bay area in only 4 hours several years back, in February of all months. I remember I had 10.2 in just 4 hours to be exact, and 5.3 fell in my gauge in one hour. It was absolutely nuts. It led to roof collapses, and my flooded street took until the next day to drain, which is crazy living so close to the coast.

The weirdest fact was that it was in February, yet it was one of the most insane rain events I've ever seen living here.

Link
img src="http://www.trbimg.com/img-5127b41a/turbine/sf l-hurricane.1964.5/400/400x2
<>img src="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southf lorida/sfl-hurricane.1964.5,0,4594662.photo
Quoting 300. emguy:



Near same location...In June 1995...in Englewood East, FL...we had just over 17.5 inches of rainfall in just under 4 hours. Worst flooding in Englewood History. Will never forget running out to dump the 5 inch rain guage about every 45 minutes during the peak of it. Our house was built up on fill...still had cars parked against the house.


Fay dumped up to 30 inches of rain inland of Melbourne, which is a mind blowing amount of rain, 17.5 in 5 hours is insane though.
Quoting 300. emguy:



Near same location...In June 1995...in Englewood East, FL...we had just over 17.5 inches of rainfall in just under 4 hours. Worst flooding in Englewood History. Will never forget running out to dump the 5 inch rain guage about every 45 minutes during the peak of it. Our house was built up on fill...still had cars parked against the house.


I remember! Intense rains across the whole area I believe. I was only ten lol, so.... I remember crazy rains flooding a creek in my neighborhood which hasn't happened before or since. Also, I remember ~10-14" being reported all over. Thanks for commenting and prompting this memory recall! We also had a storm in June '04 that turned my old rd, E Wentworth, in Old Englewood into a river. The entire road must have had 8-10" of water flowing east down it. It was nuts! It wasn't very deep, but it's the only time it's happened and nothing had or has ever come close to matching it. I was on my way home from Gardens of Gulf Cove. I saw the storm and it poured torrentially the entire ride down Winchester and River Rd. 776 in front of Shell to Dearborn had water over it and when I turned onto Wentworth off 776, I couldn't believe it. Must have been an easy 3-4" in 30-45 mins. One of those weather moments!
Quoting 303. Pallis1:

That's why we call it Englewierd. That, and all the strange Yankees that move there.


You're weird! ...and you live in Sarasota. Kiddin' Pal! City slicker! ;p
Quoting 305. Jedkins01:



Yeah I don't know if you remember hearing about this, but 8-15 inches of Rain fell in parts of the Tampa Bay area in only 4 hours several years back, in February of all months. I remember I had 10.2 in just 4 hours to be exact, and 5.3 fell in my gauge in one hour. It was absolutely nuts. It led to roof collapses, and my flooded street took until the next day to drain, which is crazy living so close to the coast.

The weirdest fact was that it was in February, yet it was one of the most insane rain events I've ever seen living here.

Link


I don't remember that. I don't watch the news, so I guess it wasn't so memorable down south. I was here :)
India's spacecraft reaches Mars orbit ... and history

(CNN) -- India's Mars Orbiter Mission successfully entered Mars' orbit Wednesday morning, becoming the first nation to arrive on its first attempt and the first Asian country to reach the Red Planet.

Link

Quoting 271. unknowncomic:

Could be the low rider storm here on the GFS ensembles. Heads north after passing the Antilles and fish bound.


It isn't considered a fish after affecting the islands. A fish means it doesn't affect land masses. The Caribbean islands are land masses the last time I heard.
Didn't notice "link" til after I commented. That is impressive and isolated.


Quoting 314. GatorWX:

Didn't notice "link" til after I commented. That is impressive and isolated.





Well, now you know where I grew up now, lol, my parents house is right in the middle of that deepest purple 10-12 inch bullseye. That was more than just a heavy rain event though, it was basically a stationary squall line that combined with a strong upper disturbance and an active jet stream and well above normal moisture for that time of year.

We had severe thunderstorm warnings along with that and incredible lightning, we also had trees and power lines came down in my area and my power was out for 8 hours. It was a shocker because we were expecting a chance of good rainfall, but nothing like that. The strangest part my not have been the rain actually, but that the strong winds and frequent lightning were persistent through the whole 3-4 hour event. In the end were closed roads, collapsed roofs, many without power and people canoeing down streets, but it was a random day in February, not a tropical cyclone or the rainy season.
It was basically like the really intense thunderstorms that occur in the summer with a sea breeze collision, except that they lasted at constant strength over us for hours. It was a stationary training squall line.


I always remind Florida residents that while the dry season is on average dry, we can get severe weather and crazy rain events even in the dry season, especially with El Nino.

Quoting 313. RGVtropicalWx13:


It isn't considered a fish after affecting the islands. A fish means it doesn't affect land masses. The Caribbean islands are land masses the last time I heard.
It's not going to affect anything because it's not going to form.
Quoting 315. Jedkins01:



Well, now you know where I grew up now, lol, my parents house is right in the middle of that deepest purple 10-12 inch bullseye. I still live there when not being in school. Pinellas County is rough in some ways, such as overpopulation and the hurricane threat, but the hurricane threat is also thrilling at the same time as long as its not a major. Pinellas County usually gets the most impressive weather in all of West Central Florida from passing tropical systems due to it being a mini-peninsula that sticks out. We always get the tornado warnings, some of the heaviest rain, and the strongest winds if one is passing through the area.

It can miss some of the more severe thunderstorms that occur more often on the other side of the Bay, although Pinellas usually does get more extreme rainfall totals than Tampa, its tradeoff.


The geography around me is about the same. I live on the Gulf side of the peninsula. Charlotte Harbor isn't as deep or as large as Tampa Bay, but still, quite similar. I know Punta Gorda/Pt Charlotte gets rain a lot of times when we don't. It's these storms that come off the Gulf that seem to usually dump the most. Last summer was wild. I remember it rained everyday .1+" for almost a month. Most days it was .25"+. Last two summers we've had that onshore flow, although this summer was nothing like last. The flow was oriented more s-n last year, compared to w-e this year.

2013



2014


318. flsky
I got a shot of one of these in the Atlantic off Ponce Inlet a few years ago. Had to research it to find out what was going on. I'll see if I can find the pic - you wouldn't believe how many pictures I've taken of clouds since moving to FL from CA. On another note - it's raining hard here again. No lightning this time - my dog is happy.
Quoting 290. GatorWX:

I hate photobucket! Here's the roll cloud....20 mins later. Probably still won't work. Urggg!



Guess it worked...finally!
319. flsky
You can upload your pic to WU, which creates a URL. Then you can load it into a quote. Baha taught me this.
Quoting 290. GatorWX:

I hate photobucket! Here's the roll cloud....20 mins later. Probably still won't work. Urggg!



Guess it worked...finally!
Quoting 308. Jedkins01:



Fay dumped up to 30 inches of rain inland of Melbourne, which is a mind blowing amount of rain, 17.5 in 5 hours is insane though.


Fay, Aug 20-22, 2008:




Fay was intense, although I was working in NY state for the last "real" US hurricane season.

'08's TS Fay

Quoting 316. KoritheMan:


It's not going to affect anything because it's not going to form.


I never said it was going to develop, just saying to what storms that form and affect some type of land before heading out to sea isnt considered a fish. Btw I do think we may get a surprise from this wave that some of the models do develop. 2014 or not, anything is up for a surprise, the season isnt over yet.

Quoting 320. GatorWX:



Fay, Aug 20-22, 2008:




Fay was intense, although I was working in NY state for the last "real" US hurricane season.


I miss those kind of seasons. At least I was more than old enough to remember 2008.
... and the frogs rejoiced !!

from the Key West NWS early morning discussion ....

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 5.83 INCHES WAS SET BACK IN 1894 IN KEY WEST...A RECORD
THAT HAS STOOD FOR 120 YEARS.
&&
Good morning, afternoon, and evening, everyone. Our first day of Fall actually felt like Fall and will continue all week. We're loving to wake up to temps in the 50s and 60s instead of upper 70s.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
Quite rainy overnight in Ormond Beach, FL. Still coming down. Daytona got 6 inches as of 5:30. We probably had as much, if I had to guess.

Coming down cats and dogs. I just stepped in a poodle....er.... puddle..... (copyright 1745)
327. MahFL
The wheel of that car looked like it went into a pot hole.
328. MahFL
This sounds interesting, from JAX NWS:

"MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST."

Oooh !

Quoting 325. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon, and evening, everyone. Our first day of Fall actually felt like Fall and will continue all week. We're loving to wake up to temps in the 50s and 60s instead of upper 70s.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
Morning Aislinn, and ever'body.... just grabbing the coffy and going.... running late this a.m.! Ya'll have a great day!
fay was lucky. if she did not stall over e cen florida she would of been a "forget about her." she needed a wider scope of destruction then she might of got her name retired. for us here in ecen fl it was bad. i saw our sewers overflowing sending raw sewage into the mosquito lagoon. 25 inches plus of that dirty word rain will do that
We got about 5 inches of rain for an hour and a half here...
Most standing water I've EVER seen in my yard and our roads..
We didn't even reach that amount of rain in that amount of time for any tropical system I can remember..
Quoting 308. Jedkins01:



Fay dumped up to 30 inches of rain inland of Melbourne, which is a mind blowing amount of rain, 17.5 in 5 hours is insane though.


Floyd dropped 20" in Wilmington, also absurd but 30"...whew!
That's an awesome photo and an incredible cloud.

Just a suggestion: Upload  your photos here on WU instead of off-site.  The approvers on WU are really efficient. If you choose the "This is for my blog" option you'll be able to post your photo more quickly. A photo like the one you posted would make a nice "Wunderphoto".. 


Quoting 290. GatorWX:

I hate photobucket! Here's the roll cloud....20 mins later. Probably still won't work. Urggg!



Guess it worked...finally!

A very dangerous flood situation in Daytona Beach as water rescues are ongoing right now.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
538 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014


FLC127-241130-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.W.0011.140924T0938Z-140924T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
VOLUSIA-
538 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH DAYTONA...PORT ORANGE...ORMOND
BY THE SEA...ORMOND BEACH...HOLLY HILL...DAYTONA BEACH...


* UNTIL 730 AM EDT.

* AT 529 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ORMOND BEACH TO
PORT ORANGE. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NEARLY 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT IN DAYTONA BEACH...WITH RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL OF OVER 7 INCHES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TEN INCHES
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS
. THIS HEAVY RAIN...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN FROM YESTERDAY...WILL LEAD TO FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW
LYING AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

* HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL AFFECT COASTAL VOLUSIA COAST ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95 THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
On the way to work here in Altamonte Springs there is water standing everywhere. All this rain in forecast will just have water levels rise to potentially extreme levels across the area.

Daytona Beach is now up to 17" of rain for September so far and there is much more on the way. Also a report of 21" for September so far in the Spruce Creek area. Here in Longwood 12.06" so far this month.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have
become a little better organized overnight. Although upper-level
winds are not conducive for significant development, only a slight
increase in organization would lead to the formation of a
tropical depression. The low is expected to move westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph well offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brown
NWS in Melbourne says we are in for some heavy rain here today in east central Florida.
The low rider storm comes off in 48hrs from the GFS
Quoting 325. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon, and evening, everyone. Our first day of Fall actually felt like Fall and will continue all week. We're loving to wake up to temps in the 50s and 60s instead of upper 70s.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!


We need to get our 3D printers working. Sounds good.


Getting cloudy in the DC area. Cool night (low50s) and clouds came in at daybreak so forecast max near 70 may not be reached.

"It was basically like the really intense thunderstorms that occur in the summer with a sea breeze collision, except that they lasted at constant strength over us for hours. It was a stationary training squall line.


I always remind Florida residents that while the dry season is on average dry, we can get severe weather and crazy rain events even in the dry season, especially with El Nino. "


that was a strange day... i remember because early early that morning i flew out of tpa airport and then when i got to my destination and saw the news the airport had closed for a little bit.

65ºF with a 57ºF dewpoint. Or, the nice two or three weeks between seasons, the rare Houston Goldilocks weather.

Won't last, but it is nice while it is here.

GFS persistent fantasy range cyclone will give the forum something to talk about, but the GFS rarely comes though.

Speakng of fantasy range GFS, if correct, we're skipping straight ahead to November.





Shame the new Jerry-Dome doesn't have a hole so God can watch his team. (I think X-Ray eyes myself, and God watches domed football.

Because November means this.



Side note- yes, God can watch football either way, but football should never be played in domes. The Metrodome collapsing, Reliant, now called NRG. There is a message in all that...
Quoting 338. hurricanewatcher61:

NWS in Melbourne says we are in for some heavy rain here today in east central Florida.


There is no where for the water to go around here now. Lake Jesup area is beginning to flood. People on here and many of them were mocking me saying this would not happen will it is and there is no end in sight to all of this rain.
Yesterday's (9/23/14) high temperature in Ft. Lauderdale only reached 82F. This tied a daily record for coolest maximum temperature, last set in 1960.
Nature abhors a domed or retractable roof stadium.

Quoting GatorWX:


Fay, Aug 20-22, 2008:




Fay was intense, although I was working in NY state for the last "real" US hurricane season.


I'd say 2010 and 2011 were pretty real seasons.
Here is what Daytona Beach looks like this morning.

What does happen to the Florida posters in Winter? Just us Texas posters enjoying all four extreme seasons, followed by tornado season?

Of course, tornado season comes early to Florida and the immediate Gulf, but I remember that Spring training tornado a few years back, not like Florida tornadoes are complete slouches.

Texas- 4 seasons.
Looks like Melbourne weather office might agree with you Scott. Nothing but rain all week into the weekend here in east central Florida.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


There is no where for the water to go around here now. Lake Jesup area is beginning to flood. People on here and many of them were mocking me saying this would not happen will it is and there is no end in sight to all of this rain.
Today's got to be my day to get some rain in South Fort Myers.

Still only 2.64" for the month at the house. 4.32" at Page Field (normal would be 6.82") for Sept. 24th at our official reporting station.

Now up to 14.33" below normal for the year.



555 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP MOISTURE MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES AS
WELL AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS TODAY...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. MOVE INDOORS TO SAFETY IF SKIES LOOK
THREATENING...OR YOU HEAR THUNDER.

TODAY'S AFTERNOON STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A 60 TO 90
MINUTE PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS WILL CAUSE MORE
AREAS TO BE SUBJECT TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH IN EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...AS NEARLY 6
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AT DAYTONA BEACH SINCE MIDNIGHT
AND AROUND 7 INCHES FELL IN THE NEW SMYRNA BEACH AREA ON TUESDAY.


ONGOING FLOODING AND STANDING WATER PROBLEMS IN VOLUSIA COUNTY
ARE VERY LIKELY BEING AGGRAVATED BY THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...
WITH MORE RAINFALL LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON. LISTEN FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS...ADVISORIES...OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THE FLOOD THREAT
TODAY.

Quoting 343. StormTrackerScott:



There is no where for the water to go around here now. Lake Jesup area is beginning to flood. People on here and many of them were mocking me saying this would not happen will it is and there is no end in sight to all of this rain.


Daytona Beach got drilled last night. Hopefully there is some let up in the rains today so some drainage can occur. I'm not an expert, but I'd think the air should have stabilized some by now and hopefully any rainfall that occurs today is not significant.
Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:

Today's got to be my day to get some rain in South Fort Myers.

Still only 2.64" for the month at the house. 4.32" at Page Field (normal would be 6.82") for Sept. 24th at our official reporting station.

Now up to 14.33" below normal for the year.






Come on over to the Orlando area as there is plenty of rain to go around. Storm spotter reported 6.48" in Longwood per Tom Terry at WFTV yesterday. I reported 2.97" at my location but that's on top of 3.03" the day before.
Quoting 353. tampabaymatt:



Daytona Beach got drilled last night. Hopefully there is some let up in the rains today so some drainage can occur. I'm not an expert, but I'd think the air should have stabilized some by now and hopefully any rainfall that occurs today is not significant.


Stalled front from Fort Myers extending NNE to Ormond Beach is what is causing all of these problems and is the reason Orlando got pounded yesterday with some insane rainfall totals in a very short period.
Mother Nature is not playing around in FL as she means business.

GFS 8 day precip accums
Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:

Today's got to be my day to get some rain in South Fort Myers.

Still only 2.64" for the month at the house. 4.32" at Page Field (normal would be 6.82") for Sept. 24th at our official reporting station.

Now up to 14.33" below normal for the year.






I've only had 1.30 inches of rain at my location in Citrus Park (NW Hillsborough County) since Friday. Other locations on the east coast have been slammed. I've never seen a stalled out front cause so much weather discussion before. Something like this happened to the day this time last year and we just got pummeled in Tampa for 3-4 straight days. However, that marked the end of the rainy season. Our news is showing 50%-60% chance of rain going into next week. I'm ready for the dry season.
Miami is about to get it and bad... Dark and overcast all morning, and we are surrounded on 3 sides.

Quoting 357. tampabaymatt:



I've only had 1.30 inches of rain at my location in Citrus Park (NW Hillsborough County) since Friday. Other locations on the east coast have been slammed. I've never seen a stalled out front cause so much weather discussion before. Something like this happened to the day this time last year and we just got pummeled in Tampa for 3-4 straight days. However, that marked the end of the rainy season. Our news is showing 50%-60% chance of rain going into next week. I'm ready for the dry season.


Don't worry Matt the wet pattern is getting ready to shift to the west coast of FL as this trough axis slides west tonight and then into the Gulf on Friday.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Come on over to the Orlando area as there is plenty of rain to go around. Storm spotter reported 6.48" in Longwood per Tom Terry at WFTV yesterday. I reported 2.97" at my location but that's on top of 3.03" the day before.




Yeah, eventually the pattern will change and we'll get our rain down here. We've had high rain chances every day, but no rain.

Check out the 3 day radar estimation. You can see my area of S. Fort Myers which has had basically no rain.

Close call here in Ormond Beach, FL this morning.

You know how they say an approaching tornado sounds like a train? Well, a little while ago, someone said, "Sounds like a train coming." We looked at each other, one of those "uh oh" moments you remember in future years..... thought about diving in a closet or somewhere else away from windows... and then we realized: Hey, it is a train.

Turns out we left the windows open because of all the pleasant cool air we've had lately, so we heard the train quite clearly from nearly a mile away. Sounded like a tornado, I'm telling you! Very ironic or something.

****
Sorry, best I can offer in a season when the tropics pretty much went Pffffft....



Check out the 7 day map.
Again, look at the area just south of Fort Myers. I live right where that light green area is south of the river.
Almost no rain (less than an inch) over the past 7 days.

Quoting 361. Sfloridacat5:





Yeah, eventually the pattern will change and we'll get our rain down here. We've had high rain chances every day, but no rain.

Check out the 3 day radar estimation. You can see my area of S. Fort Myers which has had basically no rain.




It is going to change and what is interesting you can see a ridge east of the Bahamas building west toward FL also you can see a tropical wave pushing west as well. What looks to be happening from Friday thru the weekend is that this tropical wave will merge with the trough across the eastern Gulf and FL looks to get even wetter as this happens come Friday and not just the east coast either as the west coast of FL should see thunderstorms stacking up come Friday on.

Quoting 364. StormTrackerScott:


It is going to change and what is interesting you can see a ridge east of the Bahamas building west toward FL also you can see a tropical wave pushing west as well. What looks to be happening from Friday thru the weekend is that this tropical weave will merge with the trough across the eastern Gulf and FL looks to get even wetter as this happens come Friday and not just the east coast either as the west coast of FL should see thunderstorms stacking up come Friday on.



It's pitch black in Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie towards the coast. Today is going to be a soaker-this time many places will flood as the land is pretty much saturated.
Quoting EdwardinAlaska:
Close call here in Ormond Beach, FL this morning.

You know how they say an approaching tornado sounds like a train? Well, a little while ago, someone said, "Sounds like a train coming." We looked at each other, one of those "uh oh" moments you remember in future years..... thought about diving in a closet or somewhere else away from windows... and then we realized: Hey, it is a train.

Turns out we left the windows open because of all the pleasant cool air we've had lately, so we heard the train quite clearly from nearly a mile away. Sounded like a tornado, I'm telling you! Very ironic or something.

****
Sorry, best I can offer in a season when the tropics pretty much went Pffffft....





I've been close to quite a few tornadoes (used to live in Moore Oklahoma and used to chase with students from Oklahoma University) and to me tornadoes don't sound like trains.

Tornadoes sound like a loud hissing sound similar to the sound of the wind in a high end hurricane. The closer it gets the louder the hissing gets.

Quoting 365. rmbjoe1954:



It's pitch black in Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie towards the coast. Today is going to be a soaker-this time many places will flood as the land is pretty much saturated.


Great, I'm headed to WPB and then FTP this morning. Sounds like it's going to be a fun drive.
Welcome to Florida Weather Blog directed by Scottie the tracker.
I love the enthusiasm for when it rains in FL :o) There isnt anything else to follow out there so may as well talk about the rain lol.
Quoting 372. prcane4you:

Welcome to Florida Weather Blog directed by Scottie the tracker.


Post something from your area. It's just there are a lot of Florida bloggers on this morning. Anyways I saw on TWC last night that highs in the upper 80's all across the upper mid west. Very high for late September.





Florida will have charged acquifers and green lawns, Texas, back to the desert. But, at least it might snow in 3 months.

Quoting 365. rmbjoe1954:



It's pitch black in Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie towards the coast. Today is going to be a soaker-this time many places will flood as the land is pretty much saturated.
Gem model has 5 inches for tampa bay sunday again whew..
Port Orange, FL

Quoting 373. StormWx:

I love the enthusiasm for when it rains in FL :o) There isnt anything else to follow out there so may as well talk about the rain lol.

And you never know, maybe I could meet someone for lunch in one of my destinations. That is if I make it there today. Then I can report on the weather from Miami to FTP. :-)
Quoting 377. StormTrackerScott:

Port Orange, FL


a little standing water but not widespread flooding looks like its just below the ankle deep area
Assuming GFS is wrong in the longer range, never a bad assumption, Edouard may be it for Hurricane Season 2014.

I know October typically produces a storm, but this year has been so lame, that may not happen.

1994, cold AMO, 7 named storms. 2 named storms just to tie that.

If there is a Fay, 6 named storms, we'll match 1986 for boring-suckitude.


To all the people in August, you know who you are, (well, you blocked me) who insisted a 384 hour GFS that would verify September 10th because it was the peak of the season. Didn't work out.


But hey, less than 3 months to Houston snow season, less than that to Dallas thunder sleet mixed with snow season.

The sun is trying to come out here. We need some sun to heat up the atmosphere. We've had a thick layer of clouds for days keeping the temperatures down during the day and that's been preventing development.






I know this was yesterday but I will ahve to say there is nothing normal with the rain we are seeing here and saying it is normal means your not really grasping what is falling here locally... "isolated is the entire Melboure/Palm Bay area under a few inches of rain for the last 3 days straight... Not the norm by any means
Quoting 214. StormWx:



Its very isolated, and it does look like an area North of Orlando has gotten 2-3" of rain today. Though, if you were to live just east, you would have gotten hardly any. Pretty typical to have these isolated ares of heavier amounts. It's Florida.




The areas across central Florida that are seeing the sun and heating up will most likely see the storms a little later on today.
Quoting 379. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

a little standing water but not widespread flooding looks like its just below the ankle deep area

I had over a foot of standing water in my yard the last two days.. It got that deep, drained off & then rained that much again to make it that deep the next day. Haven't seen it that deep since Fay & two days back to back? My area wasn't even hit hard compared to others yesterday.

Past hubcaps is not ankle deep..
Quoting 384. Skyepony:


I had over a foot of standing water in my yard the last two days.. It got that deep, drained off & then rained that much again to make it that deep the next day. Haven't seen it that deep since Fay & two days back to back? My area wasn't even hit hard compared to others yesterday.
ya you have been getting some decent rain
ankle deep was just for the picture that was posted maybe a little higher in the centre of the puddle again just referencing the picture posted
Check out the raw video from WFTV of the flooding. News lastnight showed some impressive video of idiots trying to drive in water over their hoods.


Quoting 387. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ankle deep was just for the picture that was posted maybe a little higher in the centre of the puddle again just referencing the picture posted

Me too...Can't see the front hubcap on the gold car. The white one in the distance looks questionable too.


Quoting 388. Skyepony:

Check out the raw video from WFTV of the flooding. News lastnight showed some impressive video of idiots trying to drive in water over their hoods.



Me too...Can't see the front hubcap on the gold car. The white one in the distance looks questionable too.



looks like that's the centre of the parking lot slope bet there is a plugged up storm drain very near the deepest area

sometimes it happens here if something blocks the drain just clear off the drain and its gone 20 minutes late
Radar estimates show 8.6" since yesterday for the airport area of New Smyrna Beach. Daytona Beach International Airport has measured 6.42" since midnight. I have family in those areas so I'm curious as to how they and the rest of the area is doing seeing as the rest of today has a high chance of rain.
Quoting 386. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya you have been getting some decent rain

I really only had less than 5" total over the two days which isn't usually such a flood event for here. I had like 26" of rain for Fay over days.. The difference is it's coming down in an hour or so. It's the rain rate that is abnormal & not allowing it to run off like normal..

Perhaps it's why people that don't live here are like that's not all that bad when the local authorities are saying turn around, don't drown.
Quoting 389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looks like that's the centre of the parking lot slope bet there is a plugged up storm drain very near the deepest area

sometimes it happens here if something blocks the drain just clear off the drain and its gone 20 minutes late


Along the coast in Florida they usually don't put storm drains under parking lots..it's not unheard of but generally the water table isn't but a few feet down. They tend to drain off into ditches & then canals from the edges.
delete that did not know there was lack of storm drains in the area I have 7 storm drains on the property here plus 3 inside the underground parking garage everyone of them have been clean out down to the bottom I just did the ones in the underground last month
Good Morning.  Whether you want to call it "El Nino type conditions" with no official El Nino  declared, or a textbook example of the observed inverse relationship between the Atlantic and E-Pac basins, or a precusor to the end of the "active" Atlantic multi-decadal cycle, or some unknown factor that has caused three years in a row now of dry stable air in the Atlantic Basin during the hurricane season, here is today's WV shot of the tropical Atlantic on September 24th......................Take your pick as to the above..................
 
twc showed on their sat shot how dry it is south of the itz contributing factor
Quoting 348. EdMahmoud:

What does happen to the Florida posters in Winter? Just us Texas posters enjoying all four extreme seasons, followed by tornado season?

Of course, tornado season comes early to Florida and the immediate Gulf, but I remember that Spring training tornado a few years back, not like Florida tornadoes are complete slouches.

Texas- 4 seasons.



The Tallahassee seasons

Winter (Dec-Feb. lots of freezes, most garden veggies don't grow well]
Spring March-April. Alternating cool and warm, overall nice. Late freezes are a problem.
SummerI (May-June 15) Hot but not awful Great in the garden. Corn, tomatoes, cool season stuff still.. Fave time.
HADES!! June 15-July-August-Sept20-. No analog in most of the U.S. Much of what northerners call "heat loving" dies (melons, peppers, sweetpotatoes, and eggplants do fine, tomatoes, corn, beans, squash.. nope after 7/20)
Summer 2 (Sept 20-Oct 20) Northern summer crops do great, then okay but short days reduce quality and frost isn't as far away as one thinks.
Fall Oct-20-Dec 1. Frost alternating with tepid heat and weak sun. Not good for me at least


More experienced FL gardeners may have had better experience getting through the summers and weak sun falls.

Upon reflection I should probably make it clear that a more experienced grower can get a lot more out of the FL Panhandle climate than I did. I was only there for two summers and was occupied by other things (M.S. pursuit at FSU)
gwv addendum 20 min after first post

Quoting 396. islander101010:

twc showed on their sat shot how dry it is south of the itz contributing factor


I also forgot to mention the particular timing of the MJO this season in the Atlantic.................I will note that the major prediction outlets did apparently make the right call earlier this year as to a less-active season. Fact of the matter is that (for the US and Caribbean) a quiet year is a good year and gas prices have been stable due to lack of storms in the Gulf.....................Ill take that any year.
Quoting 392. Skyepony:


Along the coast in Florida they usually don't put storm drains under parking lots..it's not unheard of but generally the water table isn't but a few feet down. They tend to drain off into ditches & then canals from the edges.


That explains why my hospital employee and visitor parking lots flood when it rains heavily yet the roadways have not ponded.
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
921 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RECORD SETTING RAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY AND THE OVERNIGHT HAVE
TEMPORARILY ABATED OVER LAND AREAS. MECHANICS HOWEVER REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONCE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY OCCURS. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT THE CAPE SHOWS A DEEP
MOISTURE SUPPLY WITH PWAT IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES ALONG WITH S-SSW
FLOW. CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY PARTIALLY HINDER SB INSTABILITY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BECOME ABUNDANT BY MID DAY WITH NWD MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WL UPDATE FORECAST SHORTLY TO ADJUST TEMPORAL
ELEMENTS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...(PREV DISC) UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT JETSTREAK
TO THE SE OVER FL WILL WEAKEN AS ITS H50 REFLECTION LIFTS NORTH AND
FILLS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE FL WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
BROAD/DIFFUSE AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG IT AND UP THE ERN
SEABOARD. DESPITE SLOWLY WEAKENING MID-UPPER DYNAMICS...BROADLY
CONVERGENCE SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
AND DIURNAL HEATING WORKING ON PWATS OF AROUND 2.0" TO 2.1" SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS. MEAN H85-H50 STEERING WINDS ARE S@8-12KT...ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THIS STORM MOTION WILL FAVOR
BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS...WITH AREAS RECEIVING
COPIOUS ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE MOST
PRONE FOR ADDITIONAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE U80S...A FEW DEGS COOLER ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO WIND
DOWN A COUPLE HRS AFTER SUNSET... GIVEN THE FILLING OF THE MID-UPPER
TROUGH AND WEAKENING ASCENT OVHD.

&&
Quoting 393. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

delete that did not know there was lack of storm drains in the area I have 7 storm drains on the property here plus 3 inside the underground parking garage everyone of them have been clean out down to the bottom I just did the ones in the underground last month


In my 6/10 4" in one hour flood, the storm drains became gushers. The (separate) sanitary sewer also backed up but I was ready for that and had all basement openings blocked prior to the backup. (bitter experience!!)
Quoting 394. ncstorm:




NC are you gonna get those storms in your area?...if so..stay safe up there ok
Quoting 396. islander101010:
twc showed on their sat shot how dry it is south of the itz contributing factor


When, not if, El Nino becomes a reality in the Pacific this winter we may not see a trued up Hurricane Atlantic season until 2016. That's my thinking if El Nino lasts a year.
what makes matters worse..florida has been getting these heavy rains all week long now and..nws says its going to continue for yet another week...ground is soaking wet in many places,lakes and streams full and any more rain has no where to go, hence all the flood warnings...mother nature decided to give us the whole rainy season..in just a few weeks time....been really dry here all summer long
Nice wave out there in the Atlantic at about 25W but not developed by NHC and nothing behind it on the African continent...................We are probably seeing the end of the cape verde part of the season for this year:

Quoting 391. Skyepony:


I really only had less than 5" total over the two days which isn't usually such a flood event for here. I had like 26" of rain for Fay over days.. The difference is it's coming down in an hour or so. It's the rain rate that is abnormal & not allowing it to run off like normal..

Perhaps it's why people that don't live here are like that's not all that bad when the local authorities are saying turn around, don't drown.


I don't follow your math. You said you had a foot of standing water in your yard at two different occasions, but received 5 inches of rain over two days. How did you have 12 inches of standing water in your lawn if you had 5 inches of rain over two days?
Water tends to pond into lower lying areas.

Quoting 406. tampabaymatt:



I don't follow your math. You said you had a foot of standing water in your yard at two different occasions, but received 5 inches of rain over two days. How did you have 12 inches of standing water in your lawn if you had 5 inches of rain over two days?
Whats wrong can't you people in S & C Florida handle a little rain!!
Quoting 404. LargoFl:

what makes matters worse..florida has been getting these heavy rains all week long now and..nws says its going to continue for yet another week...ground is soaking wet in many places,lakes and streams full and any more rain has no where to go, hence all the flood warnings...mother nature decided to give us the whole rainy season..in just a few weeks time....been really dry here all summer long


It's funny how weather has a way of eventually balancing itself out. I thought we were going to get it good yesterday based on the forecast and it never rained.
Quoting 384. Skyepony:


I had over a foot of standing water in my yard the last two days.. It got that deep, drained off & then rained that much again to make it that deep the next day. Haven't seen it that deep since Fay & two days back to back? My area wasn't even hit hard compared to others yesterday.

Past hubcaps is not ankle deep..


How did the garden get through the flooding?
Quoting 407. HaoleboySurfEC:

Water tends to pond into lower lying areas.




If 5 inches of rain over 2 days causes 12 inches of standing water to occur in your lawn, you have a serious drainage issue.
Quoting 374. StormTrackerScott:



Post something from your area. It's just there are a lot of Florida bloggers on this morning. Anyways I saw on TWC last night that highs in the upper 80's all across the upper mid west. Very high for late September.








Frustrating to get this heat after frost killed the things that could benefit from it.
Quoting 406. tampabaymatt:



I don't follow your math. You said you had a foot of standing water in your yard at two different occasions, but received 5 inches of rain over two days. How did you have 12 inches of standing water in your lawn if you had 5 inches of rain over two days?

The development around me.. Water rolls down hill. Parts of that are swale areas designed to catch & absorb water. Just haven't seen them overly full like that in years. It came down fast. Made for great skim boarding.

The gardens & house were up & out of it here. In places that got more rain everyone wasn't so lucky.

Interesting off Africa..
Fresh ASCAT


Quoting 411. tampabaymatt:



If 5 inches of rain over 2 days causes 12 inches of standing water to occur in your lawn, you have a serious drainage issue.


No, the issue is the eastern side of FL has been wet all year. Hard to imagine if your on the west coast of FL but yeah from Orlando over to the coast have seen serious rains all summer long. The only break from the rain was in August.

Mets are now saying that Friday thru Sunday we could see record setting rains across E C FL as this tropical wave merges with the trough in the eastern Gulf. Friday alone we could see 2" to 5" of rain.

Keeper~ Debris did help flood a neighborhood in New Smyrna lastnight. They cleared the drains but even with five extra pumps things were overwelmed. People were still kayaking after dark on the news. That may end up being one of the worst hit areas in this. It keeps training there & they had the highest forecast yet to come.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Folks this is the pattern I was eluding too 10 days ago now do you believe me? The flooding is only going to get a lot worse around here as the pattern just isn't changing and this hasn't been isolated as keeper has been suggesting this has become a near area wide issue now as water levels are extremely high everywhere across Orlando.
Quoting 415. Skyepony:

Keeper~ Debris did help flood a neighborhood in New Smyrna lastnight. They cleared the drains but even with five extra pumps things were overwelmed. People were still kayaking after dark on the news. That may end up being one of the worst hit areas in this. It keeps training there & they had the highest forecast yet to come.


Heads up Skye as it is about to get pretty wet by you very soon.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Looking at GEOS-5 Large storm landfalling in the NW, may bring some moisture to northern CA. While the Coastal Carolinas, GA, FL continue to get rain through the weekend.



It'ss trying to push the moisture back up into the Southeast again, covering AL & MS with rain on Monday as well...first run of that lately, we'll see. The storm remnants out west may reform as a line of severe weather.

CV season hangs on.

Raised beds here. Only thing new I got going is cabbage and broc. One of the green bell peppers I planted in April is still going. Got about 25 small bells that I may get to maturity before the cold comes. It should like the upcoming warm up.

Let's hope FL does not see something tropical after all of this rain.

Quoting 413. Skyepony:


The development around me.. Water rolls down hill. Parts of that are swale areas designed to catch & absorb water. Just haven't seen them overly full like that in years. It came down fast. Made for great skim boarding.

The gardens & house were up & out of it here. In places that got more rain everyone wasn't so lucky.

Interesting off Africa..
Fresh ASCAT



Sun is out and temperatures are rising here. Starting to look a lot better for afternoon T storms if the sun stays out and we keep warming up.
Hi, I'm Matt.  I love the blog!  I just wanted to post a quick question.  Has there ever been an Atlantic hurricane season when the strongest hurricanes and/or most activity occurred in October?  I'm really trying to muster up some optimism for the remainder of this season.
Quoting 423. Hazardousweather:

Hi, I'm Matt.  I love the blog!  I just wanted to post a quick question.  Has there ever been an Atlantic hurricane season when the strongest hurricanes and/or most activity occurred in October?  I'm really trying to muster up some optimism for the remainder of this season.



Optimism for what? Hopefully not to get hit by a strong hurricane. There is a second peak of the season in October. The hot spot is in the western Caribbean and GOM. However, conditions have not be too favorable all year and I would not expect them to suddenly become very favorable (needed for a strong hurricane). We'll probably see another 1 or 2 storms but mostly likely pretty weak.
Quoting 421. HaoleboySurfEC:

CV season hangs on.

Raised beds here. Only thing new I got going is cabbage and broc. One of the green bell peppers I planted in April is still going. Got about 25 small bells that I may get to maturity before the cold comes. It should like the upcoming warm up.

Let's hope FL does not see something tropical after all of this rain.




I do everything on raised beds now. During long wet periods, soil at grade gets soggy even in an area that drains and I'm just tired of losing crops because I got a week of saturating warm rain .
Quoting 417. StormTrackerScott:

Folks this is the pattern I was eluding too 10 days ago now do you believe me? The flooding is only going to get a lot worse around here as the pattern just isn't changing and this hasn't been isolated as keeper has been suggesting this has become a near area wide issue now as water levels are extremely high everywhere across Orlando.
Do you mean alluding, as in referring, to? Elude makes me think of elusive, but that doesn't seem logical contextually. Plus I vaguely recall some row a while back about how much rain FL would actually get.....